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Gallup National Tracker: Clinton 49 - Obama 42

By Big Tent Democrat

The trend continues:

New Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Hillary Clinton with a 49% to 42% lead over Barack Obama in national Democratic voters' presidential nomination preference. . . . The initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton's gaining momentum, as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night's polling as compared to Monday night's polling.

Time will tell where this is heading.

Update (TL): Comments now closed.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Yeahhhhh! (5.00 / 5) (#1)
    by tek on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:30:10 PM EST
    May this trend continue.

    Yes, I had almost reached the acceptance stage. (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by nashville on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:33:33 PM EST
    Do I dare hope the worm has turned?

    Parent
    I'm not so sure we should be happy (none / 0) (#49)
    by dianem on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:05:11 PM EST
    The Democratic nomination is very likely to go to Obama, and this does not bode well for us. If this had come out a couple of months ago, it would have been different, but it didn't. It's a bit ironic that Obama has been slamming Clinton for throwing "the kitchen sink" at him, but her very careful research failed to find this, especially considering that the radicalism of Wright was not completely unknown.

    I think Clinton knew about this and chose not to use it, probably because she knew that it the controversy would alienate a lot of black voters. The right wing knew about it, but they decided to wait to release it until the nomination was so close that any switch toward Clinton would completely alienate Obama voter's. But then, I'm a born cynic who thinks that the far right-wing is evil incarnate, so what do I know.

    Parent

    I do not (5.00 / 3) (#66)
    by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:22:54 PM EST
    accept that it is too late to pull back from the brink. I do not accept that we are going to be, or MUST be, stuck with Obama as a nominee knowing he is poison for the general.

    This is EXACTLY what the SDs are for.

    Parent

    If the Super Delegates (none / 0) (#103)
    by MKS on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:05:00 PM EST
    are used to leap frog over his lead in pledged delegaets because of the Wright issues, there would be hell to pay--even moreso than if Obama were kicked to the curb for being inexperienced or for Rezko.....

    Saying Obama is unelectable based on Wright, or poll results that may temporarily reflect Wright issues, would be to make a decision based on racial polarization.  (And I am not saying that such a decision would be a racist one, but even if it is a just a business decision based on the cold reality of polls, it would still be a major problem.)  The African American community would perceive that Obama had been rejected because of racial issues....

    90% of African Americans typically vote for the Democratic candidate in Presidential elections....That is the most loyal voting group for Democrats....It is in someways unrealistically high--how many times does 90% of any group agree on anything?  Those high numbers reflect loyalty.  If that loyalty is rejected, and especially if it is perceived as having been rejected based on racial issues, the lock on the African American community enjoyed by Democrats would finally have been picked.....Not that African American voters would vote en masse for Republcians, but a 90-10 split could easily end up a 66-33 split similar to a good Democratic year with Latino voters.  A Democratic candidate will have a hard time winning with that kind of split....

    Kicking Obama to the curb will be hard--this would be the first time (since the crazy year of 1968) that the candidate with the lead in pledged delegates does not get the nomination.  If that is to be done, it would be difficult to say Wright had nothing to do with it.  The feeling of betrayal would be significant.

    Parent

    You know, it's not just about race. I know (5.00 / 3) (#112)
    by tigercourse on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:14:18 PM EST
    Obama would love it to be about race, but it isn't. It's about "God D**n America". That is a statement that cuts across race, across class, across party lines. I know Obama wants to turn this into "they're picking on me because I went to a black church" because that strategy has worked for him countess times. Well it won't work for him in November. He will be creamed. And he will take us down with him.

    Parent
    Coming from a place of hurt (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by MKS on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:29:39 PM EST
    I would hope people could empathize more with Wright...maybe you are right and they won't.  But we do not have to accept the right wing paradigm, either.

    Consider this:

    The candidate's wife, Michelle Obama, sat in the front row during the speech. She was very emotional and could be seen crying backstage after the speech was over, given the subject matter of her husband's oratory.

    The race issus stirred up by Wright will hurt the most loyal Democrats....Beat Obama on experience, but not on Wright.....

    Parent

    I completely agree (5.00 / 0) (#150)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:48:22 PM EST
    Said it in another post, but I want to add my voice here that the thought of him not getting the nomination because of this bothers me a great deal.

    Parent
    We don't get to choose the issues (5.00 / 3) (#196)
    by dianem on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:43:00 PM EST
    This election started our as a narrative on race v. gender, but when Obama started hitting Clinton on supposedly racist statements made by her and her supporters, it became about race. I don't think that is what Obama himself wanted, but his strategists realized that he couldn't beat her on issues because there was too little difference and he couldn't even stand up to her on experience and his charisma was not going to take him over the top - so they went for it. You can't put the genie back into the bottle. The electorate is divided. It's not "white" v. "black", because people aren't that simple, but the "race" issue has divided us nonetheless.

    Wright is now just as much a part of the narrative as "shuck and jive" and Ferraro and "monster" and Jesse Jackson and "not crying over Katrina". It's there, and it's not going away no matter how much anybody wants it to. The right won't allow it to.

    Parent

    It just doesn't (5.00 / 2) (#131)
    by Daryl24 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:31:22 PM EST
    look good that a United States Senator is sitting in church listening to his pastor spout anti-American rhethoric. At what point do you tell yourself this might not be a good thing?  

    Parent
    Well, (5.00 / 1) (#140)
    by MKS on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:38:38 PM EST
    the three clips that are being played (9/11 was a conspiracy, G-D America, and the anti Hillary sermon) are not sermons that Obama attended....And the wingers haven't proven otherwise....

    Sure, there were probably sermons about white racism, and the oppresiveness of the white government, etc., but Wright appeared to have gotten worse over time and especially the last year....Obama joined up with Wright 20 years ago....

    Wright did more than say G-D America....

    Even Huckabee seems to give some "slack" to Wright.....

    Parent

    It's not about the sermons (5.00 / 2) (#198)
    by dianem on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:54:45 PM EST
    Presumably, Wright did not simply lose his mind three times and say things he didn't believe. This man was and is someone that Obama greatly respects, and he holds ideas that many Americans, black and white, find abhorrent. Obama knew about these views, regardless of whether he sat in on those particular sermons. Yet he chose to remain silent.

    My parents held more than a few racist views. When I was a child, I didn't argue, but as I grew older I learned to speak up and tell them that I didn't agree with them, and sometimes even argue with their logic. That wasn't easy. My parents weren't bad people, and I didn't want to insult them. And I certainly was not raised to stand up to my parents. But part of growing up is learning to stand up for what you believe, even when it's hard. So why didn't Obama, the great orator, speak up against what Wright said? Why did he simply choose to ignore the hateful things?

    This isn't just about a few speeches. It's about why Obama waited to address those speeches until he was trapped by Fox.

    Parent

    but the idea of a republican (none / 0) (#174)
    by pluege on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:23:10 PM EST
    taking endorsements from and sucking up to racists, bigots, and defamers is OK? The double standard in the country holding Democrats to an entirely different standard than republicans is repugnant. Not that its OK for democrats to hob knob with haters and defamers...just that there should be as much outrage thrown at republicans.
    .

    Parent
    It's called "unity" (none / 0) (#185)
    by Kathy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:29:18 PM EST
    taking endorsements from and sucking up to racists, bigots, and defamers is OK?

    He never said with whom he would unite us.

    Parent

    Actually (none / 0) (#120)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:21:50 PM EST
    I don't believe that is true, the fact that it would be the first time that a candidate with the pledged delegate lead didn't get the nomination.

    Parent
    Humphrey was just picked (none / 0) (#133)
    by MKS on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:31:55 PM EST
    without having any pledged delegates....in a very odd year under the old party-boss rules...

    Then the rules were changed....Since then, the leader in pledged delegates has won....If you have a contrary example....

    Parent

    I tried (none / 0) (#153)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:50:17 PM EST
    to do a quick search, no luck, will look again later. My main point is the system is set up so that it is a result that is possible. And I'll point out again that neither candidate will gain the nomination on their own, they won't have enough delegates. And I have no issue with SD tilting the election, specially if its towards the popular vote winner (whichever that may be).

    Parent
    Loyalty?? (none / 0) (#182)
    by pluege on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:28:22 PM EST
    Those high numbers reflect loyalty.

    no they don't, they reflect realty. Would you vote for someone that clearly is your enemy?

    Why would someone who is Black ever vote for a republican? Only those few who care so little about their fellow Blacks as to take the fast track republican road to self-enrichment selling their soul in the process would ever support republicans.

    Parent

    ... This is hilarious, after so many years of the far-left orthodoxy espousing affirmative-action and artificailly elevating one ethnic group over all others as morally superior to centrist and republicans, to use Rev. Wright's terminology, "The chickens have come home to roost."

    The disasastours identity politics seemed to haev almost worked, except now African Americans and far-left whites have decided to splinter in this current schism.

    Furthermore, the power of this far-left orthodoxy has bounded the Clinton campaign in questioning Obama in any legitimate way (including outing Obama on intresting things like his church affiliation).

    This is a monster that the Democratic party has helped make, and if it now stumbles the party with a 3-in-a-row loss electorial cycle record, it may be a sort of karma and a signal that it is time to restructure the party, and even perhaps the absurd ideology that has led to these results.

    Parent

    If it's any consolation... (none / 0) (#195)
    by sweetthings on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:40:54 PM EST
    The Republican party has it just as bad. They've just done a better job of papering over their schism this particular time around.

    We'll eventually paper over ours too, it just takes time.

    Parent

    Didn't superdelegates also (none / 0) (#165)
    by ruffian on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:12:45 PM EST
    change the nomination from Hart to Mondale in '84? I'm not saying that was the right thing to do - obviously it did not work out that well - but it does establish a precedent more recent than 1968.

    Parent
    From Ari Berman in The Nation, 1/31/2008 (none / 0) (#168)
    by ruffian on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:16:33 PM EST
    According to political scientist Rhodes Cook, superdelegates were created as a "firewall to blunt any party outsider that built up a head of steam in the primaries."

    That's what happened in 1984, when Senator Gary Hart launched an insurgent challenge to front-runner Walter Mondale. Hart won sixteen state primaries and caucuses to Mondale's ten, and barely lost the popular vote. Yet Mondale locked up virtually all the party's 700 or so superdelegates even before the primary began. Hart likely would have lost anyway, but the superdelegates sealed his defeat.

    Parent

    I believe so. (none / 0) (#171)
    by sweetthings on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:19:05 PM EST
    Though as you point out, I'm not sure that fact provides much comfort.

    Parent
    Agreed (5.00 / 3) (#110)
    by ColumbiaDuck on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:12:45 PM EST
    I think you are right.  I think members of the right wing punditocracy sat on this information until it looked like Obama was inevitable.  In fact, there's good evidence that they built him up in the early stages of the race when they wanted to see Clinton knocked down.  See Wayne Barrett here.  

    I think, for the most part, the regular media was loathed to bring this up on their own as there was not a readily available "hook" (ie Clinton talking about it).  And they didn't want to look racist.  So even though it was arguably as newsworthy as much of the rest of the controversies in this race, it was marginalized.  Until, of course, Fox News decided to go to town.  Then everyone else had an excuse to jump on board.

    But really, this should have come out months ago.  So, as I've said before, the timing seems very suspicious.  Especially given the shifting rhetoric of the Kristols, Hannitys and Wills which coincidentally enough went from praising Obama to criticizing him ... about two weeks ago.

    Parent

    no this is not true (5.00 / 2) (#160)
    by facta non verba on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:03:38 PM EST
    The Democratic nomination is very likely to go to Obama.

    He doesn't have the nomination wrapped up and his training wheels are coming off. His polls numbers are heading south fast. When he starts polling in George Bush territory you think delegates are going to stick with him? He's at 42% now, down 7 points since Friday, down 2 since yesterday, and down 13 over two weeks. His rise was meteoric and so will be the collapse. If sticks to his guns, then yes he may drag the Democratic Party down with him. And I do agree with you that this is not going to end well. Some of his supporters will blame Clinton no matter what. But Obama stands little chance of winning the general election.

    Parent

    Us Clinton supporters should find no joy in this (none / 0) (#177)
    by Manuel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:25:16 PM EST
    That would be like winning a soccer game because there was a riot.  It is not a good thing for the country.

    Parent
    I wonder in the Wright fallout (none / 0) (#56)
    by zyx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:15:20 PM EST
    how voters will react to reading the reaction of the black community's op-ed pieces that "Wright is RIGHT".  I have read a lot of stuff that defends him quite uncritically.  I don't think that helps the unity idea.  Sorry, it just doesn't.

    Parent
    Not Obama's words (none / 0) (#141)
    by MKS on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:40:08 PM EST
    Obama has no responsibility for what every other African American might say on this....

    Parent
    As A Member of the VRWC (none / 0) (#77)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:33:22 PM EST
    I have been hitting the Wright stuff since Obama looked inevitable. January.

    I even linked to a NYTs piece on the pastor from last April among others.

    It really goes down to the fact that the press leans left (maybe not as far left as you would like) and thus tries to "help".

    If they had been more critical and less partisan Obama would have gotten the vetting he deserved.

    Look for lots of people looking into Liberation Theology in the coming months. Socialism lite is OK in America. Marxism is not going to fly. For the sake of the Dems I hope they kick these nutters out of the party just as the Rs tossed Pat Buchanan out of the party despite his previous popularity. You will note that Pat is now a marginal figure reduced to commentary. Good.

    My mom (88) is Jewish (as I am) and a hard core Dem. She is not happy with the Big O or HRC.

    I have heard from other D enclaves that talk of voting McCain passes by without a murmur. Unlike 2004 when defections would get you ostracized.

    BTW I'm not a straight party man. I voted Obama over Keyes. Can't abide theocons.

    Parent

    Wright is not a nut. (5.00 / 1) (#170)
    by Manuel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:17:58 PM EST
    He may be saying things many find uncomfortable but that does not make him a nut.  There are valid reasons for his speech and what he said has a place in the spectrum of American discussion.  The democratic party, after all, is against the banning of flag burning, right?

    The knee jerk nut (or racist) characterization of anything we find objectionable hinders our ability to find solutions to our problems.  We need to get beyond our outrage.  Obama is right when he points this out.

    I prefer Clinton as a candidate but Obama is squarely in the centrist wing of the party (and moving right).

    Realistically, these events hurt Obama's electability but I am not happy about that.  This should not be dominating the discussion (though it did have to come up sooner or later).

    From now on, both Obama and Clinton need to focus on McCain, the economy, health care, education, and security.  Let everyone vote and let the chips fall where they may.

    Parent

    I really wish (none / 0) (#180)
    by PlayInPeoria on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:26:18 PM EST
    the media would get over this... Yesterday, I watched CNN & MSNBC have features.... the "this is normal in black churches" was on every single one of the coverage.

    This is NOT good!!!

    Parent

    yeah your right... (none / 0) (#197)
    by CentristDemocrat on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:45:13 PM EST
    ... perfectly sound-minded people believe the HIV virus was engineered by the US goverment to kill African Americans.... that's totally normal.

    Parent
    I agree on most points (none / 0) (#105)
    by dianem on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:06:54 PM EST
    I'm not so sure that the media wasn't critical of Obama because they are liberal, though. Even avowed right wing media stars were showing a lot of sympathy toward Obama. Part of it was their hatred for Clinton, part was his very real charisma, and part was a desire to be part of the narrative of the "historic" election (for a while it was impossible to read an article about the election without seeing the word "historic"). The SNL sketch, of all things, sort of shook the media out of their daze and reminded them that they weren't being paid to promote Obama. It was bound to happen eventually.

    Parent
    The "Big O" (none / 0) (#143)
    by MKS on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:40:44 PM EST
    retired a long time ago....

    Parent
    I think your cynicism re: Republicans (none / 0) (#179)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:25:31 PM EST
    is justified.

    The way around it was to better vet Obama.

    Democrats have no one to blame but themselves.

    Politics ain't bean bag.

    And BTW I generally vote R.

    Parent

    We need PA, Ind to turn out in mass and (none / 0) (#159)
    by Salt on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:01:35 PM EST
    bring the Party across the line in Nov.

    Parent
    I have heard many Obama smitten supporters (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by athyrio on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:31:27 PM EST
    have changed their minds due to the Wright issue.

    I don't think the smitten ones did (5.00 / 6) (#24)
    by dianem on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:49:34 PM EST
    The hard core fans are talking about his speech as if it was one of the greatest speeches of all time and it will sweep him into the White House. Of course, these tend to be the same people who defended Wright's statements as perfectly acceptable, given the context. The problem is that a lot of voter's aren't Obama fans, they just want a decent President, and they aren't all that sure about Obama. Those are the people who are changing their minds. They still have time to change their minds again if Obama wins the primary, but this issue isn't going to go away. It will be in voter's faces as long as Obama is.

    This just reiterates my belief that Obama should have waited, established more of a reputation, before he ran for office. I don't know what he could have been thinking. He simply doesn't have enough credibility to withstand the inevitable attacks. The right-wing has taken down candidates with a lot more experience than him. With his charisma and intellect, and a sympathetic Democratic Party, he could have established himself as one of the mover's and shaker's of the Democratic Party very quickly. In 8 years he could have run for President and walked away with the nomination and probably the election. Things like Wright would have mattered very little if people had had a chance to assess his character long before the election. But he had to hurry, so he is much more vulnerable than he should be.

    Parent

    personally i think he was swayed by (5.00 / 2) (#65)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:22:53 PM EST
    the siren call of the power hungry party "elders". daschle, pelosi, and kennedy would be names that come to mind. he thought with their backing it would be a breeze. maybe that is why he felt safe along with their support and media adulation that he could unleash what he chose and take the prize home. left to his own devices i also don't think he would have made the run now.

    Parent
    I would give you two 5s for that (5.00 / 1) (#137)
    by otherlisa on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:35:57 PM EST
    if I could.

    Obama is turning into a full-fledged tragedy.

    Parent

    DianM's comment, that is (5.00 / 2) (#138)
    by otherlisa on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:36:30 PM EST
    gah...apologies.

    Parent
    Obviously you did not listen closely (none / 0) (#29)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:52:52 PM EST
    to his speech.  People who think like The Rev. Wright motivated Obama to run now.

    Parent
    People like Tom Daschle (5.00 / 2) (#46)
    by caseyOR on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:02:13 PM EST
    Actually, I think it was Tom Daschle and others of his ilk who encouraged Obama to run now. IIRC, Daschle told Obama now was the time, before he had a record.

    Parent
    Maybe the moral of the story is (none / 0) (#51)
    by MMW on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:07:55 PM EST
    Not everyone who fails, actually learns from the failure.

    Parent
    And Dick Durbin (none / 0) (#167)
    by PlayInPeoria on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:16:18 PM EST
    He had a web site..Run, Obama, Run.

    Parent
    Yes, but the flipside (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by ahazydelirium on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:19:15 PM EST
    is a hardcore Hillary supporter considering Obama in a new light based on this speech.

    I know I did (but then, I quickly came back to the Hillary fold).

    I thought his speech was brilliant, and it upped the ante on intellectual discourse by emphasizing the extraordinary complexities of race relations in this country. I was impressed that he spoke so bluntly on the nature of anger. To tell the American public that black anger is the legacy of a racist country, to say that anger is neither criminal nor unacceptable, was exceedingly powerful. The call to examine the why of that anger is a call I can't remember a major politician every making.

    The length of the speech was a necessitate because of the material with which he dealt, and I think it shall be remembered for many generations.

    A President, however, would not be capable of singularly dealing with those complexities: it is really up to a grassroots, national movement.

    Parent

    in other words, the insight behind this (none / 0) (#88)
    by MarkL on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:47:38 PM EST
    speech is not a reason to choose him as President.

    Parent
    there is a level of buyer's remorse (none / 0) (#169)
    by facta non verba on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:17:07 PM EST
    On Saturday I looked at the comments in response to Obama's blog on the Huff Obama. There were at the time over 3,000 comments. I looked at at most of those. I'd say 1 in 10 had some level of  buyer's remorse or general apprehension. The balance were all a variation on 10 themes:

    1. Clinton was behind the tapes.

    2. defending the Trinity Church on both tone and substance.

    3. criticizing the tone but defending the substance.

    4. thank you Barack Obama for sharing your deep faith and that we know you will bring us together somehow even as others attack you.

    5. going off-topic and criticizing McCain, Romney, Huckabee or Clinton for their faiths.

    6. noting that this might actual help Obama because what does not kill him makes him stronger.  

    7. calling the whole thing nonsense and pretending it is not an issue because we live in a post-racial post-partisan world now though the rest of us are just too stupid to realize that yet but the die is cast and we will all be singing Kumbaya at the Inaugural nine months from now.

    8. ignoring the whole thing because the race is over and it's too late to make a difference, Pennsylvania, Florida & Michigan don't matter because the voters have already spoken.  

    9. arguing that this is a good thing because it clearly shows that Obama is not a Muslim.

    10. not seeing the link between Obama and Wright. It does not matter because either Obama renounced the statements or because Obama wasn't present when Wright made those statements so how could he know or even if it he was it doesn't matter because who agrees with the Pastor on everything anyway.

    So on the blogs, Obama is retaining his following, elsewhere I doubt it. His poll numbers are in a free fall.


    Parent
    He's still leading (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by cannondaddy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:33:51 PM EST
    in other daily polls.

    Rasmussen - Obama 47-42 (none / 0) (#55)
    by Josey on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:14:14 PM EST
    This isn't going anywhere good (5.00 / 3) (#6)
    by andgarden on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:34:51 PM EST
    Obama is tanking in swing state head-to-heads.

    Bill Clinton is saying (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:38:49 PM EST
    (in Indiana, natch) that if Hillary wins Indiana she'll be the nominee.  

    Parent
    If she wins Indiana and North Carolina (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by andgarden on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:40:36 PM EST
    I think that's right.

    Parent
    Can she win NC w/o Edwards (none / 0) (#15)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:42:37 PM EST
    speaking up for her?

    Parent
    possibly (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by andgarden on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:44:03 PM EST
    It's a close race there.

    Parent
    Really close, according (none / 0) (#108)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:10:05 PM EST
    a poll linked at Huff Post.

    Parent
    Bill Clinton would say (none / 0) (#19)
    by JJE on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:45:05 PM EST
    that the sky is polka-dotted if he thought it would get Hillary a vote.

    Parent
    You know its not true (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:47:31 PM EST
    He said clearly if she lost TX or OH in popular vote she was probably done. Everyone agreed pretty much. So why is he all of a sudden lying? He had no motive to put that kind of risk on those states yet he did.

    He is stating his opinion, and probably believes it.

    Parent

    I fail to see how a little (5.00 / 3) (#98)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:55:40 PM EST
    "what Bubba really meant" is not our due.
    we have been subjected to "what Obama really meant" frequently enough.
    turn about and all.

    Parent
    Fair enough (none / 0) (#99)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:57:10 PM EST
    Have at him! I withdraw my objection.

    Parent
    of course, isn't it? :-) (none / 0) (#22)
    by RalphB on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:48:05 PM EST
    Those Clintons will say or (none / 0) (#23)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:49:18 PM EST
    do anything to win.  

    Parent
    How many times do we have to hear that phrase (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by 165 Valley on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:54:00 PM EST
    from Obmabots?  About a trillion times so far, I guess.

    Parent
    I believe (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by waldenpond on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:00:53 PM EST
    that was humour.

    Parent
    Perhaps we should remember (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by Fabian on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:20:56 PM EST
    to use emoticons or the </snark> tag?

    It's better than wasting comments in pile on.
    ;-)

    Parent

    if you read oculus' posts (none / 0) (#173)
    by facta non verba on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:22:43 PM EST
    you know that he was being sarcastic there. It was humour.

    There is clearly a large percentage of Obama supporters who are first and foremost Clinton haters.

    Parent

    They are politicians (none / 0) (#86)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:47:21 PM EST
    what do you expect?

    Honesty?

    Surely you are joking.

    Parent

    Something I can (none / 0) (#67)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:23:46 PM EST
    definitely agree with an Obama supporter about!

    Oh, happy day!

    Parent

    didn't michelle already say that? smile! (none / 0) (#69)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:24:34 PM EST
    rasmussen has the opposite trend (5.00 / 4) (#8)
    by Turkana on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:38:25 PM EST
    while ppp now has north carolina tied. it will be days before we know the real fallout. my fear is that the real fallout won't appear until the gop 527s are done with it.

    Look at SUSA (5.00 / 4) (#11)
    by andgarden on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:39:57 PM EST
    especially this.

    Bad, bad, bad.

    Parent

    Graphic. (none / 0) (#13)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:41:37 PM EST
    If Obama keeps talking and the (none / 0) (#10)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:39:43 PM EST
    press keeps featuring him talking, seems like he'll prevail.  

    Parent
    Actually... (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:43:01 PM EST
    at this point I think the more he talks, and the more they show him talking while slobbering all over him, the worse it gets.

    Parent
    On this subject (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by RalphB on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:47:07 PM EST
    I don't think people across the country care one bit what the "media" thinks or says about it.  They are going to make up their own minds.


    Parent
    Exactly... (5.00 / 4) (#27)
    by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:51:25 PM EST
    I think there is going to be a major media backlash because the media is trying to shove a candidate down the public's throat.

    Parent
    I hope there is a major backlash against (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by RalphB on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:58:26 PM EST
    the media.  I've hated them for years and feel they are worse than useless.  Most news worth reading is reported in the foreign press and a tiny piece of it is reported domestically.


    Parent
    "American Idol - The Next President" (5.00 / 6) (#60)
    by OxyCon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:19:06 PM EST
    The media pundits have reduced this election to the level of "American Idol".
    "Can Obama's next speech win over the judges? And will he move on to the next round? Tune in to next week's episode to find out!"

    The reviews are in:

    Chris Matthews - "One of my legs keeps getting stiff every time Obama talks!"

    Keith Olbermann - "Speaking from my Edward Murrow vantage point, I think it's high time we start building the Barack Obama memorial in Washington. P.S. I hate you Hillary"

    Jack Cafferty - "I hate everybody...except Barack Obama".

    Sean Hannity - "Barack Hussein Obama wants to burn down our villages, rape our women and steal all our gold".

    Parent

    Ding, ding, ding (none / 0) (#35)
    by MMW on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:57:27 PM EST
    Give this person some flowers and a sash. That's my take as well.

    Parent
    I wish there had been a backlash (none / 0) (#183)
    by Manuel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:28:24 PM EST
    when the media was cheerleading the Iraq war.

    Parent
    I don't share your optimism (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by ahazydelirium on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:08:12 PM EST
    A vast portion of the electorate gets "facts" from the mainstream media. And, if this primary season has taught us anything, "facts" also appear in the "independent" blogosphere.

    Parent
    yup, that's right! when they see (none / 0) (#72)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:27:30 PM EST
    the constant rah, rah, rah, they'll say yawn, i'm feeding the dog and going to bed.

    Parent
    Time to turn on the TV. (none / 0) (#20)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:45:05 PM EST
    I did notice yesterday that the TV folks were talking about him talking but not about The Rev. Wright, which is why Obama was talking.  

    Parent
    general election swing voters (5.00 / 4) (#18)
    by Turkana on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:44:18 PM EST
    don't decide based on 35 minute speeches. if they did, this country would be in much better shape. they decide based on 30 and 60 second ads.

    Parent
    YouTube (5.00 / 3) (#25)
    by Davidson on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:50:41 PM EST
    I already saw a YouTube mashing Wright's inflammatory rhetoric just days after September 11th with the planes slamming into the Twin Towers and images of people grieving, crying for their families (e.g., the photos of the missing).  Just seeing that reminded me how scary the political fallout will be.

    If people had any sympathy for Wright, the fact he showed a lack of common decency in lumping the recently murdered victims of September 11th with his denunciation of US racism and foreign policy will undercut that.

    Parent

    Somebody got angry at me... (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by dianem on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:53:01 PM EST
    ...because I said his speech was too long. At least I think that was why they were angry. It was a very good speech, but it would have been better if he had cut it down to 5 minutes of highlights that could be edited to show on the 6:00 news. People just don't want to sit through long speeches anymore. I can understand why he didn't want to leave anything out, but we don't live in a world where people know how to focus on oratory.

    Parent
    It was too long, and that's a failing. (5.00 / 2) (#36)
    by MarkL on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:57:43 PM EST
    He could have cut Grandma and Ferraro from the speech, tightening and improving it, for example.

    Parent
    All he needed to say (none / 0) (#45)
    by Edgar08 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:01:52 PM EST
    One million men are right to be standing up for personal responsibility. But one million men do not make right one man's message of malice and division. (Applause.)

    No good house was ever built on a bad foundation. Nothing good ever came of hate. So let us pray today that all who march and all who speak will stand for atonement, for reconciliation, for responsibility.

    Let us pray that those who have spoken for hatred and division in the past will turn away from that past and give voice to the true message of those ordinary Americans who march.



    Parent
    His speech was a bit billmonesque (none / 0) (#48)
    by MarkL on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:04:06 PM EST
    Billmon's a great writer, and he has a wonderful way of weaving lots of history into his posts, but he needed an editor. In fact, I would guess that his longer posts were written too quickly.

    Parent
    I concur (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by Edgar08 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:59:29 PM EST
    He tried to do too many things in one speech.

    Damage control and Transforming the world all at once.


    Parent

    the length wasn't the problem (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by Turkana on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:03:13 PM EST
    in the end, most people won't remember that. but he didn't give the clear, sharp denunciation that would have neutralized the ads that will come.

    Parent
    I don't think it was length or denunciation alone. (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by MMW on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:06:15 PM EST
    I think it's people tired of the speech. it's like "Okay we get it you can speak. Now how about DOing so long."

    Parent
    it was also about him and needed to (none / 0) (#73)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:29:16 PM EST
    be about the voters who are looking at him. they are thinking in terms of a chicken in every pot and paying for health insurance, etc and frankly aren't too concerned with obama's racial angst!

    Parent
    This isn't the only speech he's ever given (none / 0) (#74)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:30:48 PM EST
    He has touched on those subjects too, this just wasn't the venue.

    Parent
    respectfully i don't agree! (none / 0) (#81)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:38:43 PM EST
    throwing granny under the bus so to speak wasn't impressive. sure a number of comments about race was necessary, but then he could have made sure that voters understood they were first in his heart and mind. that didn't happen in my opinion.

    Parent
    I can appreciate the thing about voters 1st (none / 0) (#84)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:43:41 PM EST
    But I disagree about the Granny issue.  I think he was just being honest and trying to explain how it goes both ways and he can't throw EITHER under the bus.  Also, I think that, in particular, struck a cord with people who thought, ok, I have that Grandma/Uncle too and they are a part of me.

    Parent
    Are you saying that (none / 0) (#106)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:07:51 PM EST
    Obama has no more choice in where he goes to church than he has a choice when it comes to his grandma?

    As a Republican I love logic like that. It smells like victory.

    There is only one way out: Democrats must denounce the racists no matter what their color. One standard.

    BTW when Trent Lott made his "unfortunate" statement I took the lead in denouncing him as a writer for a far right site (Sierra Times). The Rs have made it a policy to kick the worst racist out of the party (Pat Buchanan) or demoted them. Would that the Ds adopted a similar policy. Stop letting the race hustlers profit.

    My politics tends more to the libertarian.

    Which leads me to the drug war. The most overtly racists policy in the present day America. When is Obama (or Clinton) going to do a speech on that? Obama talks about all the black men in prison and then fails to mention the cause. Change? Hope? Right.

    Parent

    Heh (none / 0) (#128)
    by ColumbiaDuck on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:29:05 PM EST
    Bob Somerby had a good comment about grandma today - said that the comments Obama attributed to her aren't so different than some comments made in 1993 by .... Jesse Jackson.

    I don't think the grandma stuff was necessary.  I realize he needed some example of white racism to "balance" Wright, but I don't like people dissing elderly relatives in public for private comments.  Perhaps he should have used Jackson instead :)

    Parent

    OK (none / 0) (#90)
    by squeaky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:48:55 PM EST
    I am sick of this allegation and ungracious turn of phrase that Obama threw his gramdmother under a bus. Here is the context and the remark. Please back up your claim that he threw "granny under the bus"

    And this helps explain, perhaps, my relationship with Reverend Wright. As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me. He strengthened my faith, officiated my wedding, and baptized my children. Not once in my conversations with him have I heard him talk about any ethnic group in derogatory terms, or treat whites with whom he interacted with anything but courtesy and respect. He contains within him the contradictions - the good and the bad - of the community that he has served diligently for so many years.

    I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe.

    These people are a part of me. And they are a part of America, this country that I love.



    Parent
    I respect opinion. (none / 0) (#92)
    by kmblue on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:51:37 PM EST
    Apparently, some people disagree with you.

    Parent
    No One Has Disagreed (none / 0) (#97)
    by squeaky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:55:37 PM EST
    But some have accused Obama of this with one liners. I would like to see some reason for this as of yet baseless slur.

    Parent
    I dont see how this: (5.00 / 4) (#102)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:03:12 PM EST
    "but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe"

    can be seen as much else.  he used a very personal story to score political points at the expense of his grandmother.
    now, you can argue all you want about if this "worked" or not or "connected" or not.
    I thought it was rather unseemly.
    hope that was wordy enough for you.

    another thing. I was just home for lunch and heard some Obama person once again saying something to the effect of, "Obama has proven he is ready to lead america so now it up to America to prove it is ready for Obama". to "prove we have moved past all this race stuff and just elect him president already"
    I doubt I am the only one who finds that more than a little insulting.

    Parent

    Except if you read the book (5.00 / 3) (#109)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:10:42 PM EST
    it wasn't a passerby. It was a guy aggressively panhandling her.

    Obama changed the story for his speech.

    Parent

    How do you know (none / 0) (#111)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:13:08 PM EST
    That this is the only time it happened?  Or what she may have said to him at other times?  Just because he didn't write about it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

    Parent
    Clipping the quote won't cut it (none / 0) (#107)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:08:24 PM EST
    In context, it's not throwing her under the bus at all.  Why is honesty such a bad thing again?  And I don't think anyone thinks less of his grandmother for it either, since I think this is something we can all relate too, and have all at some point expressed.

    I am sorry you find some Obama supporters insulting, but they do not represent the candidate himself.

    Parent

    thinks less of his grandmother? (none / 0) (#115)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:17:03 PM EST
    well that is certainly an opinion.  one that I doubt.
    it was not exactly a flattering reference.


    Parent
    I was immediately bothered by the reference (5.00 / 3) (#121)
    by Angel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:21:56 PM EST
    to his grandmother.  Why bring her into it?  I believe this speech was more about trying to get the heat off BO than it was really about having a dialog about race relations in this country.  Maybe I'm just getting cynical in my old age, but that's what I think.  

    Parent
    and I might add (none / 0) (#118)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:20:41 PM EST
    it was a smokescreen.
    Wright is not his family.  whatever he says.  there are plenty of AA churches in chicago.


    Parent
    You Did Not Understand (none / 0) (#135)
    by squeaky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:33:36 PM EST
    Anything he said then. And you are now an expert on AA churches, with a specialty in the CHigago area. Your comment is meaningless. You may want to talk to some AA's who go to AA churches. Most likely a very different experience than the one you know.

    Here is a little something from a fellow commenter to bring you up to speed:

    That being said, I actually understand what Obama meant when he said that Wright was like his uncle.  Black churches are extremely social.  I decided I was agnostic about 6 years ago when I was 14 and I still go to church on occasion.  Those people are my family.  The singing, preaching to each other, having potlucks and barbecues together, growing up together, creates a strong bond.  One of the choir singers was my pre-school teacher.  It's hard to reject those people, my family, even if I'm not sure there's a God.



    Parent
    thanks so much (5.00 / 1) (#139)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:36:46 PM EST
    for your instructive meaningless comment from a 20 year old agnostic.
    it changed my life.
    really.

    Parent
    Meaningless Comment (none / 0) (#148)
    by squeaky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:44:52 PM EST
    This was a comment from a first time poster at TL who has actual experience regarding the family like bonds that are prevalent in many AA churches.

    How is that meaningless? You claim to be an expert but have most likely never stepped foot in a AA church.

    Parent

    funny you mention it (5.00 / 2) (#157)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:53:36 PM EST
    I have gone to AA churches all my life.
    I used to go when I lived in StLouis and then when I started living in Atlanta I went a lot.
    for the music, which is amazing.  not the rants.  and rants there were.
    as in all places of worship I have ever experienced.
    as for me, I am the least religious person you know.
    as far as your insightful 20 year old with unique experience, I probably have stories about my relatives that would keep you (and him) awake nights but I am not going to share them with you to score political points about how "inclusive" I am.


    Parent
    Flattering? (none / 0) (#119)
    by squeaky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:21:23 PM EST
    What does flattery have to do with the reference? You are setting up straw men. You argument is weak, to say the least.

    Parent
    what it has to do with (5.00 / 2) (#125)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:26:06 PM EST
    is saying UNflattering things about your grandmother to score political points.
    it was unnecessary.  is this person still living?
    I have no idea but it seems a painful unnecessary  thing to say about a living old person.
    to make a political point.
    you have another opinion.  I get that.

    Parent
    What Was Unflattering (none / 0) (#142)
    by squeaky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:40:09 PM EST
    That she confided in him that she has a fear of black people? Is that supposed to be unusual, or something. How is that unflattering? Is this kind of honesty unflattering. It shows that she is a flawed human like the rest of us and, unlike most she is willing to talk about her racism in order to dispell it. It also shows that there is a strong bond of love and trust between him and his grandmother.

    Your argument is weak, clutching at straws.

    Parent

    I wonder if Obama asked his grandmother if (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by kmblue on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:44:21 PM EST
    he could use her in a speech.

    Parent
    I think there is a difference (5.00 / 1) (#149)
    by otherlisa on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:45:29 PM EST
    between a (perhaps) bigoted family member (who nonetheless loves you madly and raised you) and a religious figure preaching (perhaps) bigoted things from a pulpit, where he has a position of leadership (whether you think of him as "family" or not).

    One has a great deal more public influence than the other.

    Parent

    whatever (none / 0) (#144)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:42:55 PM EST
    No, the unflattering thing (none / 0) (#187)
    by Manuel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:32:13 PM EST
    was that he gave the impression that her fear was racist which isn't necessarily true.

    Parent
    yes its my opinion only (none / 0) (#123)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:22:38 PM EST
    I guess its because I, personally, can relate to it.  I consider myself to be very open minded, but NOT crossing the street is something I had to train myself to do, not something that comes naturally.  I think a lot of people, if they are honest, will find out the same thing about themselves.

    Parent
    I guess we have reached the nub (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:27:17 PM EST
    I have never crossed the street to avoid anyone in my life.

    Parent
    I haven't either (none / 0) (#130)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:30:39 PM EST
    But living in the inner city, I certainly have felt the urge, particularly when I was younger and felt "vulnerable".  I made a choice not too, the right choice, but it was a conscious thought.

    Parent
    and in all honesty (none / 0) (#136)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:34:19 PM EST
    all my life I have had big dogs.
    if you walk down a street with big dogs it is usually other people who cross the street so it has not really been a part of my life.


    Parent
    BS (none / 0) (#113)
    by squeaky on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:15:04 PM EST
    If he threw her under the bus he also threw Wright under the bus. You cannot have it both ways. Of course he threw neither under the bus but used personal stories to show that things are not as black and white as they seem to the superficial observer.

    Parent
    But (5.00 / 2) (#152)
    by cmugirl on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:50:14 PM EST
    Why embarrass your grandmother, who did nothing publicly, and if I read the transcript correctly, seems like she's still alive?  I mean, what's the point?  Why bring out family dirty laundry? No, you shouldn't excuse people because they are old, but this was a bit much. He could have made his point some other way.

    Wright, on the other hand, deserves to be embarrassed - the sad thing is, I don't think he is, otherwise he wouldn't say the stuff he did.

    Parent

    The "balancing" of Wright with (5.00 / 1) (#188)
    by Manuel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:35:02 PM EST
    his grandmother wasn't effective.  Their actions weren't similar at all.  Also, what was missing was any description of what Obama said to them.  Did he just accept them as is with no attempt at discussion?

    Parent
    Reminds me a little of the (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by Anne on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:00:37 PM EST
    "gum it to death" strategy that was used in trying to keep people off-balance before the US Attorney scandal broke...

    I would think people might be a little over the constant coverage of Obama, since an awful lot of it seems to be of him closing the barn door that he opened, and hoping no one will notice that the horse has left the building.

    It's all actually beginning to be a bit insulting, and I think the resentment is building.  And, while he may still be getting good media treatment, people are seeing through that, too.

    Parent

    Obama is falling in most of the GE head (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by tigercourse on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:50:48 PM EST
    to heads. Which was entirely predictable. At this point, I just hope McCain makes some really big blunder.

    Supposedly he did in Iraq with (none / 0) (#32)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:54:16 PM EST
    his statements about Iran, which Lieberman corrected.  But everyone was focused on Obama's speech.  

    Parent
    Except that McCain (none / 0) (#114)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:16:38 PM EST
    self corrected at the time.

    All you get is the first line and not the "Um. I meant..." part.

    This will have no legs due to selective reporting. And a small error like that will not have the same weight as a racist pastor.

    The media are doing the Dems no good.

    All this is really good though. It shows Americans will not tolerate racists of any color. Use that to build your next election campaign.

    This one is lost.

    Parent

    Let me add that Bill Clinton (none / 0) (#116)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:19:36 PM EST
    knew how to do it right.

    Sister Soljah.

    Parent

    a lesson (none / 0) (#122)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:22:06 PM EST
    apparently lost on Obama.
    yesterday was his chance.

    Parent
    It should lead (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Andy08 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:56:43 PM EST
    to the DNC to realize that Obama's relationship with Wright is a disgrace that will sink him in Nov. There is no doubt it will be
    very powerful ammunition.

    I wondered too (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by felizarte on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:10:52 PM EST
    if the Wright issue factored into the DNC's approval of the Mich. revote plan, after being so wishy-washy for several days.  I think a light is coming through finally.

    Parent
    I'm not sure whether it's the Wright issue (5.00 / 2) (#76)
    by Daryl24 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:33:18 PM EST
    or Florida saying they won't revote. Sounds like they're daring the DNC not to count them. This Michigan decision is probably the start of Dean facing political reality.  

    Parent
    I hope a light is coming through finally (none / 0) (#68)
    by BarnBabe on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:24:31 PM EST
    N/T

    Parent
    If only Hillary Clinton had (5.00 / 5) (#41)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:59:59 PM EST
    already dropped out, none of this would have happened.

    Is that another funny? (none / 0) (#71)
    by Fabian on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:27:13 PM EST
    Your sense of humor is running pretty dry today!

    Parent
    Oculus is certainly no Obamabot....Very funny!!! (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by athyrio on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:42:37 PM EST
    don't forget (none / 0) (#80)
    by sleepingdogs on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:36:33 PM EST
    to designate when you are voicing snark.
     /snark

    Parent
    I yam who I yam. No snark (5.00 / 2) (#82)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:40:45 PM EST
    tags for me.  

    Parent
    Was that (none / 0) (#91)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:50:15 PM EST
    snark? I can't tell without the clearly mark snark comment. I can't trust my own judgement, I must be told....

    ;)

    Parent

    Ha. (none / 0) (#93)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:52:42 PM EST
    Think of Oculus as a big stick (none / 0) (#145)
    by Kathy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:44:07 PM EST
    stirring and stirring.

    Parent
    If only... (none / 0) (#175)
    by wasabi on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:24:12 PM EST
    That worked for Josh Marshal at TPM.

    Parent
    If I were still active (5.00 / 2) (#54)
    by zyx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:11:44 PM EST
    at my old politics discussion site, I'd say "Why doesn't Obama drop out now?"  Because of the polls.  Because the Wright thing will kill the Dems with swing/moderate voters in November.

    They would just hoot and jeer.

    I was just thinking the same thing (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by BarnBabe on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:21:21 PM EST
    "For the good of the Party". This isn't over yet nor a slam dunk but I am glad she hung on and if she prevails as I hope she will, we will sure have fun with those Super Tuesday reporters. Or Ego TV no brainers.

    Parent
    I am glad Hillary hung in there. (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by BarnBabe on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:18:50 PM EST
    He knew this was a major problem when he announced he was running for President. He did not let Pastor Wright join him in the announcement because he knew it could damage his chances. Maybe if the Muslim thing hadn't been intimated he could have made the disconnect just like Oprah did, but I think it became a Catch 22. He needed the church and minister to show how Christian he was but he did not need the minister's thoughts and words to sound so radical from his own. Then again, if this was known at the beginning of his campaign, we might not even be having this discussion. So, he rolled the dice. Snake eyes.

    that's why he should have waited. (5.00 / 4) (#79)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:36:08 PM EST
    8 years as veep with plenty of experience and exposure. the rev would be retired 8 years and the re deal old hat. what were they thinking? surely these so called pary elders vetted this guy and knew about the rev. the fact that they went ahead with this makes me angrier at them than obama. i think he thought and hoped it would work while they probably knew it wouldn't. they wanted to cancel hillary out at all our expense. that is my analysis only!

    Parent
    Running now (5.00 / 1) (#172)
    by waldenpond on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:20:35 PM EST
    was an ok idea.  Just not as the front runner.  It would have been necessary for this stuff to come out, dealt with on a much lower level and allowed to go by the wayside over the next 8 years.  It would be old news the next time around.

    Parent
    Mixed feelings (5.00 / 4) (#59)
    by Coral on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:19:00 PM EST
    Speaking as an ardent Clinton supporter, I have mixed feelings about this whole Wright mess.

    On the one hand, I think she'd make a much better president and nominee vs. McCain than Obama.

    On the other hand, this speech gave me an insight into what makes Obama tick, what inspires him to run, and why he might make an important contribution as president, by changing the way we think of ourselves as a nation.

    If he loses it to Clinton because of the Wright issue, it's a shame. I'd much rather have him lose on his economic and health-care proposals, which are inferior to Clinton's. I also have more confidence in her judgment on things like judicial and cabinet appointments.

    If he is the nominee, better to be tested on this now, than in, say, October.


    Call me a cynic but.... (5.00 / 2) (#78)
    by SarahinCA on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:34:31 PM EST
    I didn't think anything he said was genuinely from his heart.  I believe everything he said is true about this country, but if he really felt strongly about these things, it would have been a cornerstone of his political life, and it simply has not been.

    Parent
    I wish I could agree with you, (5.00 / 5) (#100)
    by Anne on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:57:22 PM EST
    about having mixed feelings, but I just can't.

    All we have are two Democrats to choose from, and if, at this moment, you feel that she is the candidate who would be a better president, then I think your "other hand" is irrelevant.

    For me, rather than gaining insight into what makes Obama tick, I was left feeling even less sure of who he is.  I have less confidence in his ability to lead when, time and again, he is making these inspiring speeches as a way of distracting people from his own actions.  I can't be the only one who thinks that a major speech on race relations came a little late in the game for the first black candidate with the kind of chance he has to be president.  And worse, it came on the heels of weeks of strategic games with race that have been played by his campaign to a fare-thee-well, and days of spinning and obfuscating on his relationship with Reverend Wright.  It reminds me of how, in the debate, he characterized his relationship with Tony Rezko as "this individual" for whom he had only done about 5 hours of work - and we all know now that there was a great deal more to that relationship than what Obama presented to a national audience.

    I don't doubt that he can make a contribution, the question in my mind is whether he has what it takes to be in front of contentious and difficult issues, or slightly behind them, always taking the less risky path - his performance to date has done nothing to assure me that he is ready to do that - and I happen to think that the number and kinds of issues that await the next president are going to require a willingness to really lead.

    If he loses to Clinton, it won't be any different than the football team that leads for 55 minutes of a 60-minute game and then loses in the last 5 minutes.  Or any different than Kerry and Gore, who had opportunities throughout their campaigns to do it better, so that it didn't have to come down to Florida or Ohio.

    I think it's always painful to see someone with such promise fail for a seemingly minor reason - but if you peel away the layers, you see that Wright is not so much a cause, but a symptom of something a lot bigger.

    We need to win in November, and I can only hope that the candidate who is best able to do that will be the one on the ballot.

    Parent

    If he loses because of Wright (5.00 / 2) (#104)
    by zyx on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:06:00 PM EST
    it IS a shame, I agree.

    We Democrats lost in '04 with a better candidate because of what?

    We lost in 2000 because of what?

    We have to choose our candidates awfully carefully.  If we haven't learned that, then we will keep losing.  The Republicans are just having themselves a fine time right now, I believe.

    Parent

    The truth shall set you free... (2.00 / 1) (#117)
    by sweetthings on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:20:39 PM EST
    We lost in 2000 because we'd been in power for 8 years and the country was ready for something new.

    We lost in '04 because our candidate was horrible, and voters preferred the devil they knew over the one they didn't. Kerry is a good man and a great Democrat but was a terrible choice for the nomination.

    If we lose in 2008, it will be because so many of us think that circular firing squads are good fun for the whole family.

    2012? Who knows, but rest assured, we'll do our best to come up with something. We're Democrats, after all. We're the Chicago Cubs of the political landscape. Losing elections is what we do. ;)

    Parent

    I have to disagree about 2000. We lost because (5.00 / 3) (#124)
    by Angel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:23:18 PM EST
    the supreme court stopped the vote count.  2000 was a stolen election.

    Parent
    It should not have had to come down (none / 0) (#154)
    by Anne on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:51:36 PM EST
    to Florida, and there are a myriad of things Gore could have done differently.

    I still shudder over the heavy orange makeup, the "loooock boooox," the strange invasion of Bush's personal space in the debate, his running away from Clinton, the sighing - these were all strategic errors that made a difference.  Petty, you say?  No more petty than cackles and cankles and cleavage and "tears," so there you go.

    It was how he played the game that had him, in the end, totally at the mercy of the Supreme Court.  With one more win - like in his home state of Tennessee - he wouldn't have needed Florida.

    Parent

    Vanity Fair (5.00 / 3) (#158)
    by Kathy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:54:27 PM EST
    has an excellent article about how the things you list were conflated, and outright lied about, by the media.

    Parent
    I'm not sure what you mean (none / 0) (#166)
    by Anne on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:14:29 PM EST
    The things I listed are things I saw and heard during the debates - does Vanity Fair suggest I did not see Gore looking like he just rose from the undertaker's table, or that he didn't sigh and huff and puff repeatedly, that he didn't leave his spot and walk over to Bush in a rather weird way, that he refused the help of the Clintons?

    Parent
    Al Gore was a victim of the media just as Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#176)
    by Angel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:24:41 PM EST
    is today.  He won the election by popular vote; he won the election by electoral vote if you count Florida.  The facts are that the United States Supreme Court made them quit counting the actual votes.  Study after study has proven that Al Gore won Florida.  And all the sighs and invading of Bush's space (which I do not remember) have nothing to do with the results of the election.  We need to always remember that the 2000 election was stolen.  That is one reason why so many of us are upset about the DNC not wanting to count the votes of the people in Florida and Michigan.  Get it?

    Parent
    Of course I get it (none / 0) (#190)
    by Anne on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:36:40 PM EST
    but I think you are missing my point entirely.

    If Al Gore had won more states, he would not have been held hostage to butterfly ballots and the Supreme Court - all I am saying is that it should not have had to come down to one state.  It is completley analagous to blaming the official's call in the last play of the game for why a team that had opportunities to win for 59 minutes and 55 seconds ended up losing the game.

    Of course he was a victim of the media - as well as some pretty lousy campaign consulting (thank you so much, Donna Brazile!), and he was a victim of Republican-controlled Secretaries of State who made decisions that adversely and unfairly affected the outcome.

    Because it should never have come down to one state, and because I believe that the people have the right to speak, and that right trumps whatever the advantages and disadvantages are to a particular candidate, it is imperative that the people of Florida and Michigan have the opportunity to cast votes that count.

    Yes, I get it - as all of my comments on the Florida-Michigan re-votes will attest.

    Parent

    I said "by the media" (none / 0) (#181)
    by Kathy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:26:30 PM EST
    please don't get stroppy.  I wasn't attacking you.  I just said that the media conflated the problem.

    Parent
    The sigh debate (none / 0) (#184)
    by wasabi on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:29:04 PM EST
    It's funny that the general consensus right after the debate was that Gore won it hands down.  It wasn't until the next morning that Bush was seen as the winner because of the media narrative that Gore looked awful, he belittled George Bush with his sighs, lock box, lock box, lock box...

    Parent
    Speaking of Vanity Fair, Wolcott has a great (none / 0) (#186)
    by Angel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:30:53 PM EST
    post up today.  

    Parent
    Yes (none / 0) (#126)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:26:13 PM EST
    we are.

    And it is a bad thing.

    We do not get the best candidates. From either party. Weak Democrats make for weak Republicans. Not good.

    Parent

    Agree (5.00 / 1) (#162)
    by huzzlewhat on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:07:33 PM EST
    Dropping out of lurk mode to say that I completely agree with you. I'm a Clinton supporter... Obama's speech didn't change that, but I did think the speech was, taken overall, wonderful. And while I want Clinton to be the nominee, I don't want Obama to lose because of this. It doesn't sit right with me.

    Parent
    Good comment. Thanks. (none / 0) (#70)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:24:38 PM EST
    Completely agree (none / 0) (#94)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:53:14 PM EST
    I was thinking about this exact thing this morning driving to work. I DO NOT want Obama losing the nomination over this. Not only it bothers my sense of right and wrong (as you pointed out, I want this decided by people who study both candidates and qualifications), but it would be such a sad thing for Sen Obama to be taken down because certain portions of the population react to what is probably itself a reaction to what has been the history of race relations in this country.

    Agree or not with the statements made by Rev Wright I can see where they come from.

    Parent

    I think you attribute too much hate (5.00 / 1) (#151)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:49:43 PM EST


    One of my past post predictions (none / 0) (#3)
    by Saul on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:33:27 PM EST
    I predicted that the gallup poll would go up for Hilary after the Wright controversy.

    If this trend turns around (none / 0) (#7)
    by RalphB on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:36:46 PM EST
    I will be shocked.  But it won't the first shock of the year for me.  

    Parent
    The RASS (none / 0) (#14)
    by americanincanada on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:42:01 PM EST
    poll will come around. This is bleeding and I don't think it is going to stop.

    a lot of folks don't follow the media the (none / 0) (#75)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:31:46 PM EST
    way many of us do. they'll get a call from uncle harry saying go to the internet and see this thing, etc. it spreads out slowly and people stop and say wtf!

    Parent
    National Enquirer (none / 0) (#163)
    by DaleA on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:10:06 PM EST
    When it gets to that level, all the supermarket tabloids, then it will really start to grow. Have been surprised at the number of times there have been stories about Obama in the checkout lane. He seems to be a steady seller for them. Even had one cover about his suppossed gay relationship with some scumbag. Truly incredible. Rev Wright was made for this kind of journalism.

    Parent
    Oh Yahoo News Cheney says he (none / 0) (#28)
    by BarnBabe on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:52:07 PM EST
    believes Obama was correct to stop short of completely distancing himself from his spiritual mentor when he denounced the pastor's remarks in a speech Tuesday. Cheney made the remarks in an interview with ABC News.

    Wow, to be in like Flint. I bet he could have done without comments from Cheney.

    So did Huckabee (none / 0) (#33)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:54:17 PM EST
    Surprising

    Parent
    Not really that surprising... (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by gmo on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:59:02 PM EST
    ...considering the impact that the Wright albatross has had on Obama in the polls, the GOP wants to tighten the bond between Obama & Wright as much as they can.  

    Cheney & Huckabee are doing precisely that: the more they tighten that bond, the more Obama will suffer in the polls. It's preparation for November.

    Parent

    I don't know about that (none / 0) (#43)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:00:47 PM EST
    Cheney maybe, but I think I'm gonna give Huckabee the benefit of the doubt here.  He sounded like he meant it, and he has a lot of clout on an issue like this since he was a minister himself.

    Parent
    That's true... (none / 0) (#62)
    by gmo on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:20:15 PM EST
     I could understand Huckabee's stand on principle here, so I might give him the benefit of the doubt as well.  

    But certainly I can see a lot of other GOP attackers using that line of reasoning, though that comes equally with some Hagee baggage for McCain (though Hagee wasn't McCain's pastor).

    Parent

    Hey, Cheney is family too! (none / 0) (#89)
    by MarkL on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:48:11 PM EST
    ouch (none / 0) (#96)
    by CST on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:54:48 PM EST
    Another one he probably will not be bragging about...

    Parent
    He loves all his crazy uncles. (none / 0) (#134)
    by MarkL on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:32:00 PM EST
    Families stick together (none / 0) (#164)
    by DaleA on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:10:57 PM EST
    They are cousins after all.

    Parent
    Okay, but (none / 0) (#37)
    by jtaylorr on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 12:58:23 PM EST
    Rasmussen and SurveyUSA show the exact opposite.
    Why don't you also report those?

    Hmm... (5.00 / 2) (#57)
    by gmo on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 01:18:31 PM EST
    ...aren't those polls are equally showing a downward trend for Obama since 3/14 (the break of the Wright story)?  

    The speech gave him a 2 point bounce back, according to Rasmussen.  It's probably still too early to tell where this will trend, but SurveyUSA isn't really contradicting the downturn of the past several days, either, esp in OH.

    Parent

    I live in such a shallow A.D.D. nation (none / 0) (#132)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:31:44 PM EST
    She's shrill and evil......yuck to her.  She shows some softer emotion and the masses seem to pluck up a little bit about her.  God damn America and yuck to him.  I hope Hillary keeps the same stylist and they keep doing the same uplights and lowlights or she may not get the nomination....sheeesh.

    actually... (5.00 / 4) (#155)
    by Kathy on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:52:32 PM EST
    her hair has looked fabulous lately.

    Parent
    Yes, I can see reasons for (none / 0) (#156)
    by Joelarama on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 02:52:34 PM EST
    your concern, but the Republican war is unpopular, and the Bush economy is tanking.  The Democrat will win.  That's why this primary is so important.  This IS the presidential race.
    Maybe the Republicans will nominate someone who knows the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni Muslim in the next election, and have some chance of winning after the Democrats have restored fiscal responsibility and a sense of complacency to the nation.

    Losing a war (none / 0) (#200)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:57:57 PM EST
    is unpopular.

    Which is why - now that casualties are down in Iraq sentiment on the war is shifting. Being anti-war is not a winning policy. For now.

    McCain has the advantage here. He said we needed more troops to win. More troops seems to have turned the tide. Advantage McCain.

    "We win, they lose" is going to be more popular than  abandon those who trusted us. We did that in 'Nam and there is still a lot of bitterness over that. It cost Kerry the election. The head of the Swiftboaters - O'Neil - is a Democrat.

    You would think the Democrats, being much smarter than Republicans, would have done the proper analysis and come to the correct conclusion. Instead it was all blamed on the Rs. Rather than looking at where the American people are coming from.

    Winter Soldier killed Kerry. Wright will kill Obama. All avoidable if the party had a better sense of where the American people are. Hating Republicans is not a winning strategy. It blinds you to their appeal.

    A Democrat plan for Democracy in Iraq would be a winner. So why do Democrats, presumably the champions of democracy, not have such a plan?

    Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty. - John F. Kennedy

    The only Democrat I know today that is any where close to that is Joe Lieberman. Kicked out of the party.


    Parent

    Wildly missed my point (none / 0) (#178)
    by ahazydelirium on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:25:19 PM EST
    Obama discussed, in his speech, how the anger has a rational cause even if it is expressed irrationally at times.

    He was calling on us to examining those causes. It was an immensely important and necessary call for people to consider the depths of complexity involved in race relations: he was calling on us to consider history, to consider context, to consider the other side of things.

    A message everyone needs to hear.

    And now Ohio (none / 0) (#189)
    by Salt on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:35:04 PM EST

    Ohio POTUS Today

    Clinton 50%
    McCain 44%
    Obama 43%

    Survey USA

    dang (none / 0) (#193)
    by waldenpond on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:39:17 PM EST
    what was the time frame?

    Parent
    TN Gov calls for SD primary (none / 0) (#192)
    by waldenpond on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:38:08 PM EST
    He's on Fox saying the super ds need to get together and fish or cut bait.  They don't want to see it go to the convention.  They have all of the information they need.  FYI, he says he is undecided.

    That wouldn't be anything to be happy about (none / 0) (#199)
    by Manuel on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:55:36 PM EST
    What you are saying is that swift boating will continue to work.  That perception is more important than reality.

    Wright's sentiments are not at the heart of core Democrats.  He is farther left.  Obama, however, is another story.  We should not stand for guilt by association.

    You may be right about your predictions but that doesn't speak well of the state of politics in our country.

    Fiscal responsibliity (none / 0) (#202)
    by MSimon on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:16:15 PM EST
    is not a winning D proposition.

    How did the anti-earmark bill go in Congress? Did it pass? Did nearly all Ds vote for it?

    At best the Ds are no better at fiscal responsibility than the Rs.

    Would a one year moratorium on earmarks be so bad?

    "tracking polls" (none / 0) (#203)
    by diogenes on Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 10:14:08 PM EST
    How about a poll of "Democrats plus Independents"?  Even McGovern was preferred by a majority of Democrats.