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SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 12

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:26:25 AM EST
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The final SUSA Indiana poll has Hillary Clinton winning by 12, 54-42.

Key findings: Clinton wins whites 58-39 (87% of the vote, Obama wins African Americans 77-21 (10% of the vote).

I do not believe the African American finding. Doing my SUSA adjustments (A-As 90-10 for Obama, undecided whites 2-1 for Clinton), I get the following result: Clinton 54-46.

By Big Tent Democrat

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    SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 12 | 106 comments (106 topical)

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    12 seems awefully high (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:27:30 AM EST
    does their presence in NC today etc indicate that she's ahead and thus Obama has no reason to be in Indiana?

    yes (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:31:06 AM EST
    it indicates that even with a very late surge toward Obama from some group, there still is little chance it'd be enough for him to come from behind and win.

    Their resources and attention are now where the numbers are surprisingly tight:  NC.

    The fact that NC is a State Obama's now having to fight for is STILL shocking to me.  Should have been an easy slam-dunk for him.

    Parent

    what group is that? n/t (none / 0) (#5)
    by Lil on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:32:37 AM EST


    Parent
    could be undecideds, (none / 0) (#79)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:37:44 AM EST
    independents, the youth vote ... my point was if a group that can trend toward either Hillary or Obama surges his way in the booth, it still won't be enough to make up the difference and eke out a win for him.

    Parent
    I've been ever so ill lately (none / 0) (#6)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:33:18 AM EST
    so I haven't been able to follow it.

    Parent
    Wow....interesting observation. (none / 0) (#10)
    by Annie M on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:36:07 AM EST
    So you're essentially saying they are ceding Indiana to Clinton?


    Parent
    if they finish the day (none / 0) (#102)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:03:42 PM EST
    today in IN, then, no, they're not ceding it.  If they don't reappear in IN by day's end, then, yes, they know that whatever result tomorrow won't be changed with anymore campaigning from them.

    What will be interesting is to see if Hillary -- on her return to IN today -- ends up going into the "lion's den" aka Obama Territory like she did in NV.  If she does, it's safe to say her numbers are showing her solid where she needs to be.

    Parent

    Well, if she wins IN by more than ten (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:34:25 AM EST
    and keeps Obama to single digits in NC, it's her night. I expect them to both win by double digits--in different states.

    Who would have thought, BTW, that HIllary could win bigger in IN than PA? Not me.

    same night (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:37:36 AM EST
    Two very different types of Red States.

    Indiana would fit the Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia model.

    NC fits the dynamic of the deep south.

    The Democratic party really is a strange critter.

    Parent

    Dem party more of a campground (none / 0) (#61)
    by Cream City on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:17:48 AM EST
    of everything from pup tents to tents of three-ring-circus size than it is a "big tent," it seems. :-)

    Parent
    Since Obama was predicted to win (5.00 / 4) (#36)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:50:43 AM EST
    IN by seven, and it seems like Clinton will win by at least 12 or a more conservative BTD eight, then we should add the seven to the 12, which gives us 19, less BTD's eight, which puts us at a firm 11.

    Thus, KUSA calls IN at 11 for Clinton.

    Now, let me sharpen my pencil and work on NC.

    Parent

    Kathy, (none / 0) (#41)
    by Lil on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:55:31 AM EST
    Is SUSA going to have a poll out today re: NC? Do you know?

    Parent
    Breaking: KUSA on NC (5.00 / 3) (#60)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:17:45 AM EST
    Okay, so, pencil sharpened, here's my best guess based on independent polling of neighborhood cats (tabs: three black, one Calico, two grays, a rather vocal Siamese; all female):

    NC: Clinton by 3%

    Magic 8 ball sez:  Obama demands revote. Revote proves Clinton by 4%.  Mass hysteria and charges of racism, stealing the election, erupt.

    Chaos.

    Parent

    KUSA polls are my favorite! (5.00 / 2) (#70)
    by katiebird on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:23:21 AM EST


    Parent
    Mine, too! (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:35:00 AM EST
    Especially as they seem to always favor my candidate!

    Parent
    CCUSA's cat poll (none / 0) (#77)
    by Cream City on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:35:26 AM EST
    in our house is a tie.  One frisky young female goes for Clinton, one fat old former male can't get out of the basket but for food.  Neither is allowed outside because of negative campaigns against housecats, campaigns led by nasty neighborhood cats who enjoy frolicking on front porch railing but a foot away from frustrated, frisky housecat demanding her rights.  She keeps hitting not glass ceiling but glass wall, i.e., the window between them, a foot from the front porch railing.

    Nasty, neighborhood free-range cats are not likely voters, anyway -- as a couple actually wandered into polling place down the block during the primary here but were shooed back out the door by feisty, if no longer young, pollworkers from the League of Women Voters.  The organization founded by Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Cady Stanton refrains, of course, from use of the term catfighting to describe the chaos here. :-)

     

    Parent

    NYCSUSA poll: Clinton Landslide ;) (none / 0) (#89)
    by nycstray on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:07:42 PM EST
    "typical white female" feline: Clinton

    Senior felines: Clinton (2)

    B/W Feline Youth*: Too distracted to make it to the polls (-2 Obama)

    Final Tally : Clinton 3, Obama 0

    *Black and White "cow" cats too busy running up and down the cat tree and raising He!! to get out and vote. Typical . . .  ;)

    Parent

    Best pollster EVAH!!!! (none / 0) (#92)
    by RalphB on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:34:16 PM EST


    Parent
    Demographically, IN is Better than PA For Clinton (none / 0) (#20)
    by Dan the Man on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:39:02 AM EST
    Less A-A's and less college-educated in IN.

    Parent
    But it is next to Illinois (none / 0) (#42)
    by dianem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:56:22 AM EST
    Obama's "home" state. Heck, in a lot of ways it overlaps Illinois, since the television market for a good chunk of Indiana is based in Illinois. People in Indiana have been subject to virtually non-stop pro-Obama coverage for months. Clinton can't even afford to advertise in this market (it mostly reaches Illinois residents, anyway). She is at a very real disadvantage in Indiana, and that fact that she is ahead at all is remarkable.

    Parent
    I think (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by nell on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:25:38 AM EST
    she actually is doing some advertising in the Chicago cable media market. I was in NW Indiana knocking on doors this past weekend (very positive reception for Hill, though Obama has strong support too) and I was watching Lifetime (don't judge!) and I saw one Hill commercial and one commercial from the American Leadership Project. On USA, I saw an Obama commercial. I didn't watch non-cable, so I don't know about that.

    Parent
    Pro Obama coverage? (none / 0) (#51)
    by cawaltz on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:06:54 AM EST
    The poor guy has been taking a beating lately. It's been all Rev. Wright and the meme of "why can't he close the deal? and can he win white working class folk? " all the time.

    Parent
    Well now he knows just a smidge (none / 0) (#62)
    by rooge04 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:18:01 AM EST
    of how Hillary feels. Since she's been getting nothing but bad press since 1992.

    Parent
    They've been getting Rezko piped in locally (none / 0) (#63)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:18:04 AM EST
    Which could explain a few things about the soft numbers there for Obama.

    They might have got a real picture long ago.

    Parent

    Check out the numbers (none / 0) (#68)
    by AnninCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:22:52 AM EST
    She's now cut into his "red-wine drinking" supporters.

    She's cut into the age group......down, down, down he goes.

    But my own best "poll?"

    Let's watch the spring in the step today among the candidates and their families.  Whose smiling.

    If I see Bill, Hillary, and Chelsea taking to the AA crowd to do some good-will handshaking?

    Whoa.......we got Nevada all over again.

    Remember?  They went down into the Vegas strip and went right into the supposed "lion's den?"

    So we wait to see where they go today.

    Parent

    Yes, Bill and Chelsea hit the casinos (none / 0) (#80)
    by Cream City on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:38:59 AM EST
    before the caucuses -- thanks for the reminder of those early days in this primary season.  It was the good and gutsy kind of gamble to take in Nevada. :-)

    Parent
    is Insider Advantage reliable? (none / 0) (#38)
    by Josey on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:52:38 AM EST
    they've got Obama up by 3 in NC. Yes - 3!
    IN poll to be released at noon.


    Parent
    Insider Advantage is one of the worst (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:54:04 AM EST
    I don't trust their polls.

    Parent
    It Ain't Over Til It's Over, But It Is Looking (5.00 / 3) (#9)
    by PssttCmere08 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:35:28 AM EST
    pretty darn good for Sen. Hillary Clinton....you go girl!!  Give em hell in NC too!!!

    I agree. That AA % seems way off, (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by vicsan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:37:22 AM EST
    but I am happy to see she still leads with your calculations.

    Bill is doing a bunch of rallies in NC today and Hillary was there for the morning then she heads back to Indiana today. I still think she's going to win both states. From what I read, Bill is pulling HUGE crowds in his tiny town/rural rallies. I do hope she wins BOTH Indiana and NC. That will quiet the "Hillary needs to get out of the race" crowds.

    GO, Hillary!

    Well, once again Wright (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:40:08 AM EST
    There are many older black people that will not like that Obama distanced himself from his Pastor for political reasons.  It will play into the "can we trust him" in the AA community when he is willing to do that to his pastor?  When will we become inconvenient?  

    Parent
    I have an older AA woman friend (none / 0) (#45)
    by hairspray on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:01:47 AM EST
    who voted for Hillary out here in CA.  She told me that Obama doesn't acknowledge whose shoulders he is standing on.  

    Parent
    There's some truth to that (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by Steve M on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:07:54 AM EST
    both in terms of the civil rights movement, and of the legacy of the Democratic Party.

    Parent
    Wright is certainly a factor (none / 0) (#47)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:04:04 AM EST
    on both sides of the coin: whites who are offended by his hateful statements and blacks who are offended by Obama so easily pushing him aside.  Oh, let's add the edge of the coin, which is that this is the first contest post the final Wright blow-up.  I think all bets are off.

    (and people have underestimated the warm, fuzzy feeling Bill Clinton gives dems.  He is going to get them to the polls in huge numbers)

    Parent

    Lord, (none / 0) (#69)
    by cawaltz on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:23:12 AM EST
    There will be palpitations in Left blogistan if she managed to eke out wins in BOTH states. I think the media narrative will either be based upon which state has the higher margins(which will prove to me the media is one dimensional) OR will be "Why can't Obama close the deal?(In which case those of us that have cautioned that the media is NOT going to sing the praises of Obama will watch the look of surprise cross the faces of those who insisted that we should go with Obama becase he is the "Teflon" candidate).

    Either way, I predict a media narrative win for Clinton. Clinton already knows which way the wind blows with the media though. I kinda feel for Team O. Politics is a bloody sport and the media is no longer pulling their punches.

    Parent

    NC has many more delegates (none / 0) (#85)
    by Cream City on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:49:50 AM EST
    so I predict that if it's a draw, if Clinton wins Indiana by the same margin that Obama wins South Carolina, the media will focus again on "teh math" and delegate count -- i.e., the nomination and not November and the popular vote.  

    That said, Obama saying that Wright now is a fair point of discussion means "media legitimization," as the theory goes, of discussing factors from his judgment to racialization of the vote.  So, close contests could mean long hours of improvisation fraught with pitfalls for pundits and faux journalists without teleprompters to script them and save them from faux pas as they try to fill the time.  It could be a memorable night for media mistakes that feed blog frenzies.    

    Parent

    I think the narrative (none / 0) (#94)
    by cawaltz on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:52:09 PM EST
    will be againt Obama. They are turning from primary mode to GE mode and they want a damaged Democratic GE candidate. I bet dollars to donuts that even if Obama were to eke out a win in delegates that it'll be a "why can't he close the deal narrative and "will white working class vote or him?" It's just the vibe I am getting when I listen to the talking heads.

    Parent
    Yes (none / 0) (#97)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:24:24 PM EST
    it's already started. Obama will be the nominee but he's unelectable. He just can't seem to close the deal. He can't expand his demographics. White working class voters won't vote for him etc.

    Parent
    He may or may not be (none / 0) (#103)
    by cawaltz on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:13:13 PM EST
    the nomiminee. I do think they have push tested higs to throw at him and in GE mode we will be hearing about Rev Wright ad nauseaum if he is the nominee.

    Personally, I think Hillary is the stronger GE candidate because they will basically have t rehash the 90's. Obama's baggage will be new so it will cause more of an uproar by the electorate.

    I kinda feel for Obama because I really don't get the impression he was ready for the kind of below the belt hitting that he has seen. Clinon is more prepared because she has been there and done that.  

    Parent

    Wright (5.00 / 7) (#13)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:37:26 AM EST
    I think the polls and the media are asking the wrong question on Wright.  It is not just about race and the obvious.  It's about judgement, it's about trust, it's about hypocrisy.  The Axelrod narrative is broken.  We cannot have him go to the GE with a broken narrative since that is all he has.  By the way, he broke it, it was not Hillary that broke it.  

    My hairdresser (none / 0) (#71)
    by madamab on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:23:44 AM EST
    doesn't care about Wright.

    What she didn't like was when HRC talked about a joint ticket and Obama said "definitely not". She said his attitude was a real turnoff. So that is another way in which his Unity narrative was broken - by him.

    She also said that America could use a woman president. "She is a mother. A mother knows how to take care of her children."

    Pretty interesting, eh?

    Parent

    I love that. "She's a mother. A Mother (none / 0) (#81)
    by vicsan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:39:27 AM EST
    knows how to take care of her children." SO TRUE and they are also VERY competent when it comes to MULTI-TASKING. Women/mothers have perfected Multi-Tasking because we've had to. In most women/mother's lives, Multi-Tasking is just the norm. IMCPO, a woman/mother would make a GREAT president. The presidency is made for a woman. :)

    Parent
    Wright (none / 0) (#74)
    by cawaltz on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:26:56 AM EST
    is just a bludgeon that will be used to beat Obama with. In the big scheme of things I don't think Rev Wright is more than a distraction and matters far less than economic policy(gas tax holiday) or foreign policy(whether or not to put your political cards on the table with less than friendly global community members). It's the media being the media.

    Parent
    Insider Advantage (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by AnninCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:37:28 AM EST
    has NC statistically tied.

    Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday's election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp."

    It's also possible that (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:39:47 AM EST
    AA turn out is proportionally dwindling because Obama is already seen as a shoe in.   I think that's where th eyouth vote went too.

    The Clinton supporters have a strong motive to vote simply to keep her in the race.

    Parent

    Oops (none / 0) (#17)
    by AnninCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:38:00 AM EST
    The paragraph should be in quotes and attributed to Insider Advantage.                  

    Parent
    Oops (none / 0) (#18)
    by AnninCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:38:01 AM EST
    The paragraph should be in quotes and attributed to Insider Advantage.                  

    Parent
    Heh (5.00 / 4) (#30)
    by Steve M on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:47:26 AM EST
    This poll will obviously be the baseline for the post-election spinning.  Never mind that Obama was leading the RCP averages in Indiana as recently as mid-April, all sorts of diaries will be written about how Clinton blew a 12-point lead, blah blah blah.  The talking point that everyone loves Obama as soon as they get to see him will live on.

    With over a million voters purged (5.00 / 2) (#34)
    by Dadler on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:50:22 AM EST
    Indiana's result will leave much to be desired, whomever prevails.  A fishy situation to be sure.

    Do you have a link for that? (none / 0) (#40)
    by wasabi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:55:27 AM EST


    Parent
    Link (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by Dadler on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:05:41 AM EST
    The incredible disappearing Indiana voter rolls.

    Parent
    Bev Harris. . . (5.00 / 2) (#56)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:11:12 AM EST


    Parent
    Is Indiana (none / 0) (#49)
    by AnninCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:06:25 AM EST
    going to require ID?

    Is that what you're referring to?

    Parent

    Indiana has already been requiring ID (none / 0) (#59)
    by Boston Boomer on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:16:44 AM EST
    for years now.  It's nothing new.  My parents live there.  My mom lost her drivers licence and had to find another form of picture ID in order to vote.


    Parent
    I would be interested in Black women #s (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Exeter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:56:47 AM EST
    It's possible that with all the Wright stuff, that Obama may lose a small # of this conflicted demographic.

    RE : (none / 0) (#2)
    by az on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:29:48 AM EST
    Not far off from ARG which has the black vote 90- 9

    53 - 45

    http://americanresearchgroup.com/

    What did Obama campaign's (none / 0) (#4)
    by oculus on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:31:15 AM EST
    erroneously disclosed spreadsheet say again?  Clinton by 10?

    KUSA (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:34:59 AM EST
    It would be cool to have a post or table with how close SUSA was on all the other primaries compared to the goober polls.  

    Parent
    Nope (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by nell on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:37:44 AM EST
    the campaign spreadsheet predicted Obama by 7.

    Parent
    The precondition for that (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:42:00 AM EST
    was avoiding a blow up like Wright.

    It's interesing that they didn't have a PLan B.

    Parent

    Having a plan B is sort of pessimistic (5.00 / 4) (#27)
    by Militarytracy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:45:38 AM EST
    They were running on HOPE.

    Parent
    No Plan B (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by litigatormom on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:49:18 AM EST
    Kind of like the Bushies' strategery for Iraq....

    Parent
    They were using Plan C (none / 0) (#46)
    by dianem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:02:17 AM EST
    "Plan A" was Obama wowing the crowds with his overwhelming charisma and his message of "hope" and "change". That wasn't enough.

    "Plan B" was slandering Clinton and everybody associated with her as race-baiting pols who were willing to throw blacks under the bus to win. That worked, but not well enough to take him over the top.

    "Plan C" was knocking Clinton for her "slash and burn" politics in which she "threw everything but the kitchen sink" at Obama. That worked, but not enough to overcome Obama's own weaknesses.

    What they don't have is a "Plan D".

    Parent

    Plan D is (none / 0) (#55)
    by ruffian on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:10:05 AM EST
    the SDs don't like the Clintons. Never really did, never will.

    Parent
    Obama 53 Clinton 46 (5.00 / 2) (#28)
    by dianem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:45:55 AM EST
    Of course, based on the spreadsheet, he was supposed to win Guam by 11 and lose PA by only 5.  He ended up tying Guam and lost PA by 10. Wright changed everything. I thought Obama would have bounced back from the Wright fiasco by now, but he doesn't seem to be showing his usual resiliance.

    Parent
    Obama's Spreadsheet Had Him Winning IN (none / 0) (#44)
    by MO Blue on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:57:42 AM EST
    53% to 46%.  

    Parent
    Yeah, Obama is going to get at least (none / 0) (#12)
    by tigercourse on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:37:26 AM EST
    high 80's in the African American vote. I have to check Penn and Ohio to see how the white vote broke.

    I suspect that blacks who don't vote Obama... (5.00 / 2) (#33)
    by dianem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:50:17 AM EST
    ...will mostly stay home. The "Clinton supports racism" meme is too powerful for them to simply go and vote for her because they no longer support Obama. This is the biggest problem with Obama's "divide and conquer" strategy. If he loses, then no Democrat will be able to win for a long time, because the Democratic establishment will be marked in the minds of blacks as racist until the next generation.

    Parent
    63/64 - 37/36 (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:38:53 AM EST


    Parent
    Thanks. So, I think she'll do better with whites (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by tigercourse on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:44:02 AM EST
    and worse with African Americans then SUSA does. I can't fault them for their findings, because I think they are accurately reporting what people think right now. But when they get in the booth, more AAs will choose Obama and more whites will choose Clinton.

    Parent
    If this is true (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:48:01 AM EST
    and my gut tells me it will be, he will lose NC.  Also NC has a lot of AA military people.  

    Parent
    I think Obama will certainly win NC. The AA vote (none / 0) (#37)
    by tigercourse on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:50:44 AM EST
    is far too large for him to lose. But I don't think it will be a 20% blowout like Southern primaries past.

    Parent
    White vote % in this poll is 58/39 ... (none / 0) (#29)
    by Annie M on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:46:14 AM EST
    Do you think the % will be less for Clinton in Indiana, than in Ohio and Pennsylvania?  Why?

    Parent
    Where is he gaining? (none / 0) (#23)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:41:53 AM EST
    Has Obama lost AA support? His "denouncing" of Rev. Wright, his pastor and long-time mentor may upset voters in he AA community.

    Also, has Obama gained in any groups beyond his core constituencies? He seems to have hit a ceiling. Further, I'm not sure he can rely on the "youth vote" to come out on election day.

    His decision to NOT denounce Wright (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:44:18 AM EST
    in the Greatest Speech, showed that he was nervous about offending black voters like that.

    Parent
    I may be delusional but wasn't there coverage on (none / 0) (#35)
    by FLVoter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:50:32 AM EST
    CNN this weekend about a group of AA ministers advising AAs to vote for Sen. Obama despite his split from Rev. Wright?  If so, doesn't this evidence concern of less enthusiatic AA voters?  I do not believe that AAs will all of a sudden vote for Sen. Clinton, but there may be less AAs voting than in previous states.  I thought the coverage was on Saturday, but I was working in the hot FL sun all weekend in my garden and may have gotten my days mixed up. Does anyone remember this?

    Parent
    If ministers had to speak up (none / 0) (#67)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:21:31 AM EST
    there are obviously mutterings among black voters about Obama's "blasphemical herecies" and "schizmatictal malifactorialicity."

    That was my Don King Impression.

    Parent

    If it was from the pulpit, (none / 0) (#84)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:49:05 AM EST
    there may be a legal FEC (?) issue with the Pastors doing that.  Either way, I feel like -- for some AAs -- they may be feeling like they'd want a Black President, of course, but maybe not just this one right now.  

    How bad would it be for the first AA candidate for Pres to be creamed in the GE because of his association with a batsh*t crazy Preacher?

    Parent

    It's not "whites"!!!!! (none / 0) (#50)
    by Edgar08 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:06:48 AM EST
    The way we talk about these polls is baiting the race issue.

    I hope we change how polls define their demographics going forward.

    I'm sorry to say that (none / 0) (#53)
    by ruffian on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:08:10 AM EST
    the voter photo-ID law jsut upheld in Indiana is expected to depress A-A turnout. Maybe SUSA is taking that into account.

    Um (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:09:27 AM EST
    That is not relevant to the 77-21 split.

    Parent
    True, just overall numbers. (none / 0) (#57)
    by ruffian on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:11:48 AM EST


    Parent
    It actually could be (none / 0) (#58)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:12:26 AM EST
    because it's possible that the voters who are not hindered by that new (awful--don't want to win that way) law are more likely to vote for Clinton

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    Um, (none / 0) (#64)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:19:03 AM EST
    to the tune of 11 points? Nah.

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    And certainly not in a phone poll (none / 0) (#65)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:19:22 AM EST


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    Here's some poly sci for you. (none / 0) (#72)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:24:57 AM EST
    No Bishop No King.

    Obama broke with his "Bishop".  Some black voters might view that seriously.  Teh passion of religion is a REAL thing.

    It's just possible that some voters may see Obama as ungrateful and sorta unholy.

    Maybe SUSA picked up on what the implications of Obama's switcheroo on standing by his preacher.

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    I agree that voter ID laws (none / 0) (#66)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:20:43 AM EST
    are horrible, but I think yankees don't realize how important cars are in the south.  I forget the statistic, but we own a LOT of cars down here, which means that lots of folks have driver's licenses.

    I would guess that as many elderly people are restricted by the voter ID law as are aa's, so it could end up being a wash.

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    I found this chart (none / 0) (#75)
    by eric on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:27:21 AM EST
    and it doesn't look like licensed drivers per-capita skews either north or south.

    LINK

    It is suprising to see Texas near the bottom.  Also, my state, MN is #48.  Strange.

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    Someone Up Thread Said That The ID Law (none / 0) (#82)
    by MO Blue on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:43:09 AM EST
    has been in effect for 4 years. I've heard the same thing from voters from IN. The court cases were to overturn the existing law.

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    Clinton by 12 (none / 0) (#78)
    by hummingbirdv on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:36:32 AM EST
    Kathy, love that magic eight ball.

    Senator Clinton... lookin' good girl!

    Here's what Ghandi said:

    First they ignore you.
    Then they ridicule you.
    Then they fight you.
    Then you WIN.            

    Clinton's Smart (none / 0) (#83)
    by hummingbirdv on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:43:35 AM EST
    About the Gas tax.  Both Clinton and Obama are right...  YES, it helps people.  And Yes, it is pandering.  Obama is just mad he didn't think of it first.

    BTD (none / 0) (#86)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:58:07 AM EST
    You said that if Obama didn't win Indiana, which it's looking like that is going to happe, you would consider Obama unelectable. Do you still think that?

    As far as this poll goes, it could be off on the white vote too. Obama could only get about 30% of the white vote which would probably make the topline number a correct number in the end.

    I did not say that (none / 0) (#87)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:01:10 PM EST
    I said if he loses Indiana convincingly I do think he is more electable than clinton.

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    It looks like he's heading (none / 0) (#91)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:12:18 PM EST
    to be blown out.

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    You mean "not more electable"? (nt) (none / 0) (#93)
    by Cream City on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:36:47 PM EST


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    Numbers (none / 0) (#88)
    by Mike in NYC on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:01:52 PM EST
    Principle to follow:

    Single digit margin for BO in NC is bad news for him.

    Should NC end up that way, and Clinton manages to win IN (I think she will, but not by much), things will start changing big time in this race.

    Clinton by 12 (none / 0) (#90)
    by hummingbirdv on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:10:25 PM EST
    If he loses Indiana he is more electable??  Did I miss something?

    SUSA crosstabs (none / 0) (#95)
    by Dawn Davenport on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:21:22 PM EST
    Some interesting datapoints within the crosstabs that may offset the underestimate of AA support for Obama:

    • The women's vote--which breaks 60-38 for Clinton--is estimated to be 52 percent of the IN vote, which sounds low compared to gender composition of voters in other states.

    • The age group of 35-49 year olds--who are estimated to comprise 30% of all voters--favors Clinton 55-42. Also, the estimated age distribution for primary voters seems to skew young, with 18-34 year olds outnumbering 65+ voters.

    • Self-identified Dem voters (an estimated 69% of primary voters) break for Clinton by almost 20 points: 58-39.

    I think Clinton's margin in Indiana may be closer to 15 if there's a strong turnout among women.

    SUSA (none / 0) (#96)
    by DaveOinSF on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:22:02 PM EST
    Two obvious issues here, which I've seen in a lot of SUSA polls.

    1.  AA vote seems too high for Clinton (17%? more like 10%)
    2.  Undersampling of women. (52%? More like 58%)

    If you correct for both, you end up with 55-43.

    well, (none / 0) (#98)
    by boredmpa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:33:47 PM EST
    i'm still predicting:

    A 5-6 percent increase in AA women voting for hillary.  Polls show increasing concern that Obama cannot win the GE, so we will see a decrease in general support for Obama and more women supporting hillary.  He burnt some bridges, and there is a historic candidate that can win.

    If that happens, it shows he's losing solid voters, he may get an additional point from the women voters (well, not in IN, because the number of AAs are too law), and the percentage of AAs will change because more clinton supporters are showing up at the polls (people will stay home because of wright issues, because they got tired [youth vote], or because they don't think he can win the GE).

    It will be a regular talking point if hillary makes any inroads with the AA voting block in both IN and NC.

    Parent

    typo (none / 0) (#99)
    by boredmpa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:35:02 PM EST
    "she" not "he" may get an additional point from AA women voters

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    Hoosier women at national average in voting (none / 0) (#100)
    by Cream City on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:49:27 PM EST
    participation to this point, 24th of 51 (states plus D.C.), in the wonderful IWPR state-by-state studies on the status of women.  (See iwpr.org for other states, too -- and for more info on which issues, such as health care, equal pay for equal work, reproductive rights, etc., may matter more and resonate more and reach women more in some states compared to others where women do a bit better, on such issues, anyway.)

    Of course, we're seeing such previous turnouts by women surpassed in most primaries this year.  So if women in Indiana also, like women elsewhere, up their participation this year, you could be correct that 52% is too low this time around.

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    Not undersampling the black vote (none / 0) (#105)
    by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:54:09 PM EST
    Sorry, but as I know my family in NC, I think Hillary will get closer to 20% of the AA vote.  I have heard no indication from family members in NC that African Americans have the same hostility that many in the press would like to think AA voters have against the Clintons.

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    I do believe the AA finding is possible (none / 0) (#101)
    by bridget on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:03:36 PM EST
    90 again for Obama? No way. Not this time. Late 70s  seems about right IMO. Maybe 80. Have been thinking that for almost a week now.

    my two cents

    Lucky if he gets 70s of the AA vote (none / 0) (#104)
    by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:52:23 PM EST
    But more important, how much of the white vote will Hillary get?  and woman's vote and white men vote?

    This primary will change the tide...

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    From your lips to God's ears! :-) (none / 0) (#106)
    by RalphB on Mon May 05, 2008 at 06:33:43 PM EST


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    SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 12 | 106 comments (106 topical)

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