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The Polls - 10/25

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:18:51 AM EST
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DKos/R2000 unchanged at Obama +12, 52-40. Ras has Obama at his alltime high lead, +8, 52-44. Newsweek has Obama +12, 53-41. ABC/WaPo Tracker has Obama +9, 53-44. In short, if these polls are right, it is over.

McCain's sliver of hope polls are Battleground and IBD/TIPP - which have him down 3 and 4 respectively.

The real action now is in the Congressional races. Can Al Franken win in Minnesota? Can the detestable Saxby Chambliss be defeated by the new face Jim Martin? Can Jeff Merkley get rid of the two faced Gordon Smith? Can Darcy Burner defeat the Seattle Establishment candidate Dave Reichert? Can Eric Massa win in Rochester? Those are the stories of the election now.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    The Polls - 10/25 | 38 comments (38 topical)

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    GO DARCY! (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Faust on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:00:34 AM EST
    And Franken and Martin and Merkley et al.

    Go Christine Gregoire for that matter. God fobid we have Dino Rossi as our new "GOP Party" Governor up here in WA.

    It's about time the Eastside... (5.00 / 0) (#21)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:15:28 AM EST
    ...got some real representation.  Go Darcy indeed!  

    Dino is as slimy as they come, I hope that SOB goes down and crawls back under the rock he came out from under.  

    Parent

    I'm with you (5.00 / 0) (#23)
    by Jackson Hunter on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:53:30 AM EST
    I have no idea why the Governor's race is so close, I can't imagine someone voting for Obama and then Rossi, that wouldn't make sense, but that is what the polls are saying.  I hope Darcy can pull it out, Reichert is such an *ss.

    Jackson

    Parent

    Same reason it was so close last time. (none / 0) (#26)
    by Faust on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 12:22:40 PM EST
    Course, I never figured that one out either.

    I think a lot of people just don't find Gregoire very appealing. She's pretty low on charisma and Rossi has that slimy happy sales guy thing that a suprising number of people are attracted to.

    If he does win people in WA are going to get a harsh reminder of why we haven't had a Republican Governor for quite a while.

    Parent

    On the one hand... (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by reynwrap582 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 12:27:52 PM EST
    I feel bad that I moved out of WA a few months ago and can't vote for Gregoire and Burner..  On the other hand, I'm glad I'm not in WA anymore in case Rossi wins.  On the other other hand, I'm in Idaho and am screwed anyhow.

    Parent
    I gotta hand it to ya (none / 0) (#32)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:00:22 PM EST
    That was funny.:-)

    But c'mon, ya got the Couer d'Alene, and there just are few places on earth as beautiful as that.  My mom was from Idaho and talked about it for decades, 'til I finally got to see it.  Gorgeous -- and it changed forever my internal picture of Idaho.

    Parent

    Couer d'Alene (none / 0) (#33)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:04:01 PM EST
    Retirement community for very conservative law enforcment officers. But beautiful, for sure.

    Parent
    Well, it really has changed then (none / 0) (#34)
    by Cream City on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:19:01 AM EST
    since the days my mother's family was there.  Some of them apparently were were in the sorts of businesses that kept law enforcement in business.  

    Then again, maybe that explains why so many law and order types had to head there, too.

    Parent

    Bootleggers? (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:23:25 AM EST


    Parent
    Those were the more respectable ones (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by Cream City on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:58:33 AM EST
    truckin', literally, across the border to Canada and back, then distributing up, down, and around the Cascades.  

    Before them were some unholy Molly Maguires in the mines.  And as for the wimmen, the first divorced her hubby in the Midwest in the 1880s, so of course, she had to head west.  Did so, so the story goes, in a covered wagon filled with her six daughters to open a "beanery" in Idaho.  That was a boardinghouse full of railroad and mining men fed beans, cheap but filling, almost every meal.

    Sounds upright, but the town where they opened the "beanery" became known as the Whorehouse of the West.  So did my great-great-great-great aunties stay, well, upright?  Don't know, but the stories all were told by my bootleggin' grandpa with a wink and quite a twinkle in his eye.

    Parent

    Ha. I sense a memoir in the making. (none / 0) (#38)
    by oculus on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 11:41:20 AM EST


    Parent
    Could this also be a reaction to the... (5.00 / 0) (#24)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:54:19 AM EST
    ...Palin/McCain Hate Tour '08 that has been playing a lot of dates in the Centennial State of late?

    From the Rocky Mountain News:

    Sen. Barack Obama has surged to a commanding, double-digit lead in Colorado amid soaring anxiety about the country's direction and a massive shift of independent voters into the Democratic column, a new poll finds.

    After weeks of devastating economic news, Obama now leads by 12 percentage points - 52 percent to 40 percent - in the latest Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll.

    "Clearly, the beginning of October is not a happy time in American history, and voters are sort of internalizing the financial crisis," said pollster Lori Weigel.

    Since early August, when Colorado independents were almost evenly split between the two presidential candidates, Obama has opened up a more than 2-to-1 advantage in that pivotal voting group, the poll found.

    In the latest survey, only 11 percent of Coloradans said the country was heading in the right direction, while 83 percent said it was on the wrong track...
    And by Hate Tour '08... (5.00 / 0) (#25)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 11:50:23 AM EST
    ...I mean this:

    http://tinyurl.com/6gjlhu

    Parent

    One thought is (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:26:05 AM EST
    that, on the issues, Jim Martin is much better than anyone I would ever expect Georgia to elect. It would be a near-miracle if he manages to beat Saxby.

    Aside from that, I expect Dems to net three seats each from Florida and Ohio. Retirements, weak incumbents, and creaky Republican gerrymanders will do for those states what happened in Pennsylvania last cycle.

    Local support for Martin (none / 0) (#14)
    by Xclusionary Rule 4ever on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:58:50 AM EST
    I attended a fundraiser for Martin a week ago with former governor Roy Barnes.  A $1000 per photo event with Bill Clinton in Atlanta for tonight is sold out.   I have another fund raiser on Tuesday night.  Georgia dems are excited about Martin's chances and the money is coming in.  I sent him money 3-4 months ago.  His brothers and sisters are all bright, many of them attorneys.  Joan was our state-wide defense lawyer group president (GACDL). Jack is our legislative liaison for criminal defense.  I met Jeff at the fundraiser.  They are good, plain smart folks.   I believe downticket democrats are going to ride Obama's coattails in Georgia to victory, thanks to Bob Barr. A year ago I would have laughed hard if anyone said that.  Heckman will still not beat Linder, though.  That area of the state is hopelessly red.


    Parent
    Well, I think there's a decent chance (none / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:01:35 AM EST
    that this one is going to a runoff. That's not great news IMO--Georgia isn't Louisiana (where legend is that "the Democrat always wins the runoff.")

    Parent
    Ooooh my preferred poll (Ras) (none / 0) (#2)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:26:15 AM EST
    is looking good! 10 more days...

    Well, I don' trust the polls (5.00 / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:28:46 AM EST
    that have McCain lingering at just under 43%. I think it's pretty much impossible for him to pull less than 45% on election day--but that would still be a landslide for Obama.

    Parent
    I agree (none / 0) (#22)
    by Jackson Hunter on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:50:06 AM EST
    andgarden, in fact I think it is a 3 or 4 point race myself, but Obama will win a sizeable Electoral Vote victory because he will win almost all of the close ones.  A ten point victory is absurd, but hey, I hope it happens.

    Jackson

    Parent

    Looking at the state polls, (none / 0) (#4)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:31:14 AM EST
    good news from Ohio and Colorado, and less from Florida. Contrary to my expectations, Ohio now seems like a better bet than Florida. The good news is that Obama doesn't have to choose, and McCain will have to bleed cash in both big states.

    On Ohio and FL (5.00 / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:32:55 AM EST
    Told you so. But I actually expect Obama to win both.

    Parent
    If the whites were a little more liberal (5.00 / 3) (#7)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:37:58 AM EST
    or the Cubans a little less Republican, Florida would be a much better state for Democrats. I'm still not over 2000, so I won't feel right until we win another Presidential election there.

    Oh, and I think the election is close enough in Florida that the polls just don't tell us what's going on: every other poll finds a different result for hispanics there.

    Parent

    Oh, and (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:47:11 AM EST
    the Times has a good video on Florida. There's an accompanying article somewhere.

    Parent
    what do you or anyone else (none / 0) (#6)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:35:49 AM EST
    think about a surprise in MT/ND? I only think it is even possible if the current polls are a reflection of a last minute trend, instead of a reality in the here and now.

    Parent
    It's conceivable (none / 0) (#8)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:39:47 AM EST
    If there's really been a 8-10 point shift nationally since 2004, and it isn't all coming from the traditional battleground states (psst, Florida and Ohio), it must be coming from the west. This map from March sticks in my mind.

    Parent
    If Obama wins comes within a point or two (none / 0) (#10)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:46:49 AM EST
    in MT, how much would you attribute that to the Gov.?

    Parent
    Who knows (none / 0) (#12)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:48:03 AM EST
    he was pretty good at the convention.

    Parent
    Yes... (none / 0) (#29)
    by Thanin on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:26:50 PM EST
    I really thought he was the best non headliner of the convention.

    Parent
    Agreed. Great speaker. But he'd be (none / 0) (#30)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:16:56 PM EST
    the Dems' Palin/Huckabee -- lots of mocking of the Northwest accent, down-home folksiness, etc., all only allowing the GOP to make Dems look elitist.  (I cannot begin to express how crazy-making that is for me.)

    If not, if all that would be okay with the guy, that would be interesting.  And telling.


    Parent

    I could see that... (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Thanin on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:58:29 PM EST
    but, to me, he really comes off as authentic, and that goes a long way to being accepted no matter how your labeled.

    As far as palin goes, personally, beyond partisanship, shes always felt fake to me.

    Also Bill Clinton definitely had a homegrown feel and won twice.  So I think he'd be embraced.

    Parent

    One note on the Hagen v. Dole (none / 0) (#9)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:42:46 AM EST
    race here in NC. From the limited but almost overwhelming exposure I've received here, it seems like Hagen would be blowing Dole out if not for some surprisingly effective Dole ads. They are painting her as a closet liberal but using her own shifty words on things like the Iraq war. It seems (to me) like Hagen may be a Manchurian Lib in the mold of Obama.

    Of course Franken... (none / 0) (#13)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:57:05 AM EST
    ...can win.  The real question is will he win.  

    My Minnesota brother related to me that he thinks Coleman is a joke and would never vote for him.  He really likes the 3rd party candidate (Barkley), but knows that he doesn't have a realistic chance at winning. So, his decision is between voting for Franken or "wasting" a vote for Barkley.  

    BTW--he is embarrased by Bachmann and can't figure out how she got elected in the first place.

    Hope he picks Francken (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by ruffian on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:06:53 AM EST
    Al is a true progressive policy wonk at heart and I think he would be an excellent progressive Senator.

    Also he dismisses the ridiculous claims of the right Limbaugh crowd better than anyone.  We need him with access to a built-in political microphone.

    Parent

    What's the deal with this Barkley (none / 0) (#17)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:06:30 AM EST
    fella anyway? What's to like (more than Franken)? I'm asking because I'm too lazy to find out on my own and I'd like a shorthand reason. :)

    Parent
    He's actually (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:08:53 AM EST
    a former Senator. (Appointed by "the Body" when Wellstone died.)

    Parent
    From Survey USA... (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:12:21 AM EST
    The presence of a strong 3rd-party candidate makes the race uniquely difficult to handicap. Barkley represented Minnesota in the US Senate for two months following the death of Paul Wellstone in 2002. Support for "fringe" candidates sometimes collapses during the final days of a campaign, but Barkley has been in double digits in all SurveyUSA polls conducted since Labor Day, and cannot be dismissed as "fringe." Barkley today is at or above 20% among young voters, Independents, moderates, those who did not attend college, pro-choice voters, those with incomes less than $50,000 a year, and in Northeast and Southern Minnesota. It is difficult to know if, during the final 2 weeks, Barkley supporters stay with Barkley, switch to Coleman, switch to Franken, or stay home.

    He's a known quality, comes off as a genuine, good guy and has appealing policy stances.  That tends to play well in the Land O' Lakes.

    Perhaps eric can add more detail than I.

    Parent

    Wednesday in Orlando...... (none / 0) (#28)
    by michitucky on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:35:13 PM EST
    Via Politico and confirmed my the Obama Campaign, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama will be appearing together for the first time at a rally in Orlando on Wednesday......

    The polls are completely unreliable (none / 0) (#37)
    by pluege on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 07:53:25 AM EST
    In short, if these polls are right, it is over.

    the polls hide the great mass of racism in the country that many people are unwilling to admit publicly and to themselves, and that will prevent them in the voting booth from pulling the lever for a Black Man. The race is far closer than polls reveal.

    The Polls - 10/25 | 38 comments (38 topical)

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