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The Polls- 11/1

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 08:45:57 AM EST
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DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, 51-44. The last two nights of polling have been +8 and +9. I predict that come Tuesday morning, this poll will predict a 9 point Obama win. Ras ticks one point in Obama's direction to a 5 point lead, 51-46. Ras seems headed to predicting a 5 point Obama win come Tuesday. No tracker has McCain closer than 4 (IBD/TIPP has Obama by 4.4, Battleground has Obama by 4) Most have the race closer to 9 ( See Gallup, WaPo and Hotline.)

Here is our fun with Zogby moment of the day - today Zogby's poll show McCain doing better with women (where he trails by 4) than men (where he trails by 6.) Zogby is truly a joke. Even when he is angling for publicity as he is today, he can't tell a plausible story.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    The Polls- 11/1 | 24 comments (24 topical)

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    The Gobal Electoral College (5.00 / 0) (#2)
    by Demi Moaned on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 08:56:03 AM EST
    Did you see this over at The Economist? Their electoral college has almost ten thousand votes. The results:
    Obama: 9,053
    McCain: 185

    McCain only carries: Iraq, Algeria and the Congo.

    Two countries are tossups: Sudan and Burma.

    About that Ras PA poll: (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by steviez314 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:14:49 AM EST
    The crosstabs show how silly that result is:

    While Ras PA went from +7 to +4, Obama's white support actually ticked UP 1.

    Ras has the AA vote now at 80-20 (must have been a very small sample) when he had it 93-5 before.

    THAT IS THE ENTIRE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OLD +7 AND THE NEW +4.

    Now, do you REALLY think the AA vote is 80-20?

    Interesting (none / 0) (#14)
    by andgarden on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:20:43 AM EST
    Do you have access to the crosstabs yourself? What percentage of the white vote does Ras claim Obama is getting?

    Parent
    I sadly pay money to Ras (for one more week) (none / 0) (#15)
    by steviez314 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:29:49 AM EST
    And Obama gets 46% of the white vote in PA in his last 2 surveys.

    In fact the independents went from -6 to +12 for Obama.

    So the entire poll difference this time around is a very small sample of AAs that when he weighted, went from 93-5 to 80-20.

    Put it back to 93-5, keep whites the same, and it's the same +7 it was earlier.

    Parent

    Plugging 46% white vote (none / 0) (#17)
    by andgarden on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:34:01 AM EST
    into SUSA's breakdown, I get just over 51% for Obama (assuming 95% of the black vote). A little close for comfort, but I'll take it.

    Parent
    According to 2004 CNN exit poll (none / 0) (#20)
    by steviez314 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:43:58 AM EST
    Kerry only got 45% of the white vote.

    Also, AA turnout was 13%, which Kerry won by 84-16.

    Based on these numbers, I have to believe than Obama outperforms Kerry, should be 53-47ish.

    Also, since Hillary is stumping for Obama in VA on Sunday, and not PA, I have to assume that Obama's not that worried about PA.

    Parent

    I split "other"/Latino (none / 0) (#22)
    by andgarden on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:49:15 AM EST
    (4% of the vote) 50/50, though Obama will probably get much more than that.  53/47 sounds right to me.

    Parent
    BTD (none / 0) (#1)
    by zvs888 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 08:55:38 AM EST
    What about Pennsylvania?

    Obama at 51-47 in Ras.  This is somewhat worrisome since Obama is only at 76% with Dems down from 86%.  I'm hoping that's just a blip and Obama takes 80% when all is said and done.

    McCain wins Penn if he gets 100% of Reps, 55-60% of Inds, 25% of Dems. He seems to be closing in on the right number of Dems but he's not really close to the right number of Inds...

    This has (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by IndiDemGirl on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 09:31:44 AM EST
    Obama winning AAs 80 - 20.  NO way will McCain win 20% of the AA vote.

    Parent
    Er (none / 0) (#3)
    by zvs888 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 08:57:16 AM EST
    Meant to say 75% of Dems attracted by Obama.

    Parent
    It's worrisome (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 09:16:53 AM EST
    if you ignore every other poll in Pennsylvania.
    But go for it, Clearly you are looking for something to worry about. Might as well be that.

    Parent
    PUMA blogs seem to ... (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 09:51:04 AM EST
    be the only people convinced that McCain will win PA.  Of course, they also buy into the notion that Obama is a socialist.

    So ... a grain of salt with a healthy dose of laughter seems appropriate when looking at those blogs.

    Parent

    Two other polls in the last two days (none / 0) (#10)
    by BrianJ on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 10:20:50 AM EST
    Show similar results-  NBC's poll on Thursday (47-43) and Strategic Vision's on Friday (49-44).  Pennsylvania is also a good candidate to be a state where the Bradley Effect is real-  older population and moderate politics.

    Parent
    You need to read up (2.00 / 0) (#12)
    by Cream City on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:11:48 AM EST
    on the Bradley Effect, Brian.

    It is not the same as racism, which you are imputing to people you don't even know.  They may just disagree with your candidate on other issues.

    Imagine what we could call you, on the same basis.

    Parent

    An interesting thing about western PA (none / 0) (#16)
    by CST on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:32:05 AM EST
    One of the few areas of the country where things have actually gotten a little better under Bush.  Home prices have gone up, it was never affected by the houosing bubble, so it's not affected by the housing bust.  That's not to say things are good in Western PA - just that they were so bad before they've had nowhere to go but up.  So the McCain = Bush comparison may not work there as well as other places.  And as you posted before - they are one area of the country that actually approves of the job Bush has done to some extent.

    It's not just the PUMA blogs, I have been worried about PA since Obama became the nominee.  The economy made me relax a little on this account, but I could still see him losing here and I won't rest easy until it comes in on election day in the blue column.

    Parent

    "My vision" (5.00 / 0) (#19)
    by lilburro on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:43:54 AM EST
    if we can call it that...remember in the primary when people thought PA was going to be somewhat close?  All Hillary's people trooped out and cast enough votes to put her up by ten points.  You might say that McCain will get some of those people and he may.  But I think there are a lot of quiet people in PA who are going to come out and vote for Obama because they know what is up.  The important thing is to make sure they stay at the polls once they get to the polls, because the lines will undoubtedly be long.

    Parent
    Well, I didn't post that before (none / 0) (#18)
    by Cream City on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:35:24 AM EST
    and didn't know it -- I thought the economy was worse for them, from what I just know from some of the people there and in WV, relatives who always have voted Republican, and long before there was any choice but a white man vs. a white man.

    They are true conservatives on principle, but I love 'em, anyway. :-)  And they love their AA relatives, too.  I think one of the nephews is named Bradley, btw.  That's their Bradley Effect.

    Parent

    Gotcha (none / 0) (#21)
    by CST on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:46:36 AM EST
    You said 30% approved of Bush, higher than the national average.  I forgot the 30% and just remembered the national average part.

    The economy there is "worse" in the sense that it's worse there than in other places.  Just not necessarily worse than it was 4-8 years ago.

    I can't really speak for WV, but Pittsburgh is finally slowly climbing out of the whole that they got put in the 70s.  Especially with housing prices up in the rest of the country.  The young, educated group is starting to stay a bit more because they can afford to live there.

    Parent

    How could it be the Bradley effect (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:05:21 AM EST
    if the polls are actually tightening?

    Parent
    McCain's Hill to Climb (none / 0) (#4)
    by JayHub on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 09:10:45 AM EST
    Here's McCain's task. Not impossible, but very difficult.

    Obama will win all the Blue states Kerry won in 2004 by large margins. None of them are in play.

    What's in play, according to respected Republican blogger, ElectionProjection.com, and others, are nine Red states that voted for Bush in 2004, but in which Obama is leading today.

    McCain needs 96 Electoral Votes from the 112 these states represent to win the election. If he loses just Iowa and New Mexico, the two states Obama has the biggest leads in, but gets all the others, he wins, because the rest of the states total 100.

    However, if he loses just one more state from the list below in addition to Iowa and New Mexico, say Nevada with 5 votes, he loses because at best he then only gets 95 votes and that won't do it.

    Colorado
    Obama +6.3
    EV's 9

    Florida
    Obama +3.4
    EV'S 27

    Iowa
    Obama +11.4
    EV's 7

    Missouri
    Obama +0.1
    EV's 11

    Nevada
    Obama +6
    EV's 5

    New Mexico
    Obama +8.7
    EV's 5

    North Carolina
    Obama +1.7
    EV's 15

    Ohio
    Obama +5
    EV's 20

    Virginia
    Obama +5.5
    EV's 13

    I predicted for months ... (none / 0) (#6)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 09:27:46 AM EST
    that if Obama had a lead of between 6-8 points on RCP the weekend before election we didn't have to worry.

    His current lead is 6.4.

    I believe Obama has a floor of 286 electoral votes and a ceiling of 375.  I predict he wins with 306.  

    On election night, his PV margin will look to be around 6%.  But as all the votes are counted, the final number on Wednesday will be closer to 4%.

    Does McCain have a chance?  I don't think so.  His only chance is if most of information on polling and demographics is wrong.  Some of it probably is wrong.  But most of it?  I highly doubt it.

    Is there a chance for a landslide?  There is a chance.  If everything goes right, Obama could hit his ceiling, and have a 10% PV win.  But I don't think that will happen.  Yeah, 10% isn't really a landslide.  But in this climate it will be treated as one.

    NEVER LOOK AT DRUDGE... (none / 0) (#9)
    by Oceandweller on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 10:14:01 AM EST
    before realclear politics.
    First thing was a heart attack after reading Zogby line then turned to Talkleft. God bless you Jeralyn and Big tent.
    Oh boy, Zogby is a danger for the public safety!!!!

    Here's a good one: (none / 0) (#23)
    by lilburro on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:52:16 AM EST
    Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4%

    President

    McCain (R) 45 (44)
    Obama (D) 47 (46)

    Senate

    Dole (R) 45 (45)
    Hagan (D) 50 (49)

    Early voting numbers:

    President

    McCain (R) 40
    Obama (D) 52

    Senate

    Dole (R) 40
    Hagan (D) 58

    Looks like we'll be freed of Dole!

    The AA crosstabs are screwy again (none / 0) (#24)
    by andgarden on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 11:54:46 AM EST
    though somehow--again--they come close to the right result.

    Parent
    The Polls- 11/1 | 24 comments (24 topical)

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