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Tuesday, January 22, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — President Pervez Musharraf is touring European capitals and plans to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday in a bid to show that he remains in charge of his troubled country, where his popular support has never been at such a low ebb.

On the tour, his first major trip abroad since stepping down as army chief last month, Mr. Musharraf intends to show his resolve in fighting terrorism and to talk up investment opportunities, his aides said.

But his pitch, after the assassination of the opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, will be made in the shadow of a rapidly escalating jihadist insurgency, an economy suffering from sudden power and wheat shortages, and worries that elections delayed to Feb. 18 will fall short of being free and fair.

The pillars of Mr. Musharraf’s strength as a ruler over the past eight years — national stability and security, with an army capable of withstanding the insurgency, and a flourishing economy — are being severely challenged, his supporters and critics say. Suicide bombers have struck three of Pakistan’s major cities — Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar — killing dozens of people in the past 10 days.

In a public opinion poll by Gallup Pakistan this month, 68 percent of some 1,300 respondents who were asked in random, face-to-face interviews whether Mr. Musharraf should resign or stay said they thought he should go.

The results mirrored an even larger opinion survey by the International Republican Institute, a nonprofit group based in Washington that is affiliated with the Republican Party and promotes democracy abroad. That survey was published in December, before Ms. Bhutto’s assassination and the delay of the elections.

Politicians who have supported Mr. Musharraf say his popularity among all classes of Pakistanis has plummeted to its lowest point yet, damaged by a series of missteps starting nearly a year ago when he tried to fire the chief justice of the Supreme Court.

They said he was hurt further by his imposition of six weeks of emergency rule late in the year, and the arrests of thousands of critics, most of them now freed.

Mr. Musharraf has ruled the country since he took power in a bloodless coup late in 1999, retaining his post as military chief while taking on the role of president. Over time, the dual roles stirred popular and judicial resistance, and opponents demanded he surrender his military post.

In December, Mr. Musharraf stepped down as leader of the army and two days later was sworn in for a new five-year presidential term, having been re-elected by national and provincial assemblies in October.

Support for Mr. Musharraf within the army, which is considered Pakistan’s most important institution and is under growing pressure from the insurgency, was hard to gauge accurately, two Western diplomats said. The successor Mr. Musharraf has chosen to lead the army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, is not expected to abandon him in the short term, they said.

They noted that General Kayani took steps last week to distance the military from politics by issuing a directive that army officers were no longer permitted to contact politicians. He has also been reported to be likely to recall army officers who had been posted to top slots in government departments when Mr. Musharraf was in charge of the military.

Over all, Mr. Musharraf faces opposition led by the elite of society — educated doctors, engineers, lawyers — and that kind of challenge is different from the traditional opposition in Pakistan, which comes from the streets, said Ijaz Shafi Gilani, chairman of Gallup Pakistan, in an interview on Friday.

“These are people who have benefited economically from the Musharraf regime, but what makes them work toward his departure is the feeling of a sense of national humiliation,” he said.

Major business leaders, however, still support Mr. Musharraf, a result of the strong economic growth that has benefited them, if not the average Pakistani, said Wamiq Zuberi, chief editor of the Daily Business Recorder and chairman of an independent television station, Aaj TV. But whether the business support will last, he said, is uncertain.

“By and large big business has not turned against him, but they’re quite perturbed by the way things are going,” he said. “Definitely nobody in the country can be satisfied with the law-and-order situation and the suicide bombings.”

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