Most Valuable Prognosticator

Another offseason, another Jimmy Rollins prediction:

"We'll win probably 100 games . . . 100 games will get us to the playoffs," Rollins told Comcast SportsNet last night, when asked for his forecast for next season.

I'm not sure why Rollins thinks it'll take 100 wins to garner the NL East title in 2008, but if either the Mets or the Braves miraculously manages to finish 99-63, he'll be spending October at home. The Phillies finished 89-73 in 2007, and their Pythagorean W-L of 87-75 indicates that they actually outperformed expectations. Teams don't typically vault from 89 wins to 100 wins without a major change in personnel, (although it can happen) so let's look at what the Phillies have done since the end of the NLDS.

They re-signed J.C. Romero, (who threw 36 1/3 innings for the team last year) traded Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary to Houston for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett, and acquired Chris Snelling from Tampa Bay. The addition of Lidge, in particular, signifies an improvement, but an 11-win improvement? Granted, the Phillies did suffer some serious injuries last year, to Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia, and Tom Gordon, in particular. But no team stays healthy all year, and while the Phillies might enjoy better luck next season, it's quite possible that they won't. Once the possible (or even probable) departures of free agents Aaron Rowand and Kyle Lohse are factored in, I simply don't see any way to justify calling the 2008 Phillies a 100-win team at this point.

Bold sports predictions have a nasty habit of coming back to bite their sources. Rollins avoided that common pitfall with last year's "team to beat" pronouncement, backing up his words with an excellent season, (though not truly a "most valuable" one) but I can't imagine that his most recent augury will be similarly vindicated.