GOLDENTICKER.COM

2007-12-02T12:24:00.000-08:00

ECONOMIC REPORTS& EVENTS CALENDAR
Important economic reports coming this week:
Tuesday:
Wednesday: Productivity (rev), Crude Inventories, Factory Orders
Thursday: Initial Claims for Unemployment
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Consumer Credit.

EARNINGS CALENDAR
Important earnings releases coming this week:

Monday: WBD
Tuesday: LAYN
Wednesday: CMTL
Thursday: PAY
Friday:

THE BOTTOM LINE:

The markets have changed course and are now once again in rally mode after only a brief sell-off. The correction was brutal to many stocks. For instance, leading dry bulk shipper Excel Marine fell 55% in just a few weeks from $82 all the way down to $36.90.

As corrections often do, the strength of some top-rated stocks has been exposed. There are more than a handful of exceptional companies that refused to fall below their 50-day moving averages which is a place that institutional investors will support a stock they believe in.

Stocks on our buy list include some of the strong leaders from the last rally that refused to fall below their key 50-day lines. We also have uncovered some stocks that are actually either breaking into new high ground or getting ready to . We have also found a top-rated stock breaking out of a "high-tight flag." According to IBD (Investors Business Daily) this is a very powerful but rare pattern. Please see our charts for a complete analysis.

Our research has shown that the strongest stocks tend to break out in the first few weeks of a confirmed rally like the one we are in right now. In the stock market, there are the "quick and the dead." Its hard to believe that the markets can rally with all the terrible news about the housing collapse, bank failures, the credit crises, the dollar melt-down, etc. But markets have a tendancy to rally just when the news looks like it just couldn't get any worse.

The Fed appears to be in a good mood, and is ready to keep lowering interst rates and flooding the banking system with liquidity (another word for dollars). This dovish stance by the central bankers bodes well for stocks prices and should provide us with a tradeable rally. Will this turn into another great bull run? Nobody knows, but we do know that now is the time to be investing in growth stocks.

We are monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements. Patience is key. As the great Jesse Livermore said – "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" See our free tutorials for more.

For subscribers, I have assembled charts of some interesting stocks. Please take a look at them at http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/chartsM.html

Please login for today's stock-picks.
http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/stockpicksM.html

2007-11-30T18:23:00.000-08:00

NEW MARKET RALLY GETS UNDERWAY

The markets confirmed a new rally yesterday due to strength in the IBD 100 and leading stocks. On day two the Nasdaq hit us with a distribution day however. Distribution is a tell-tale sign that institutional investors which control over 80% of the markets price action are dumping shares. The index fell 7 points or 0.3% in heavier volume than yesterday. Many leading tech stocks like RIM, Apple, Bidu, and Google reversed earlier gains and closed down for the day. Gloomy forecasts by Dell Computer got the blame today for bringing down tech stocks.

The Dow and S&P 500 fared much better gaining 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. Volume was heavier than yesterday. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's comments last night clearly are pointing to more rate cuts in the near future. The dollar was stable and Oil fell below $89 a barrel as gold closed below $800 again. All positives for US stocks.

HOW LEADING STOCKS ACTED

China Finance Online has been on a wild ride lately and closed up 23%. Trina Solar moved up 7% but its chart is a mess. Diana Shipping advanced 4% to retake its 50-day line and is recovering from its 40% haircut. Focus Media also gained 4% and is fighting to move above its 50-day line.

On the downside Lululemon got turned away at its 50-day line and reversed hard, falling 12% in heavy trade. RIM fought a ferocious battle at its 50-day line but held, dropping 7%. Chinese solar star Yingli Green Energy lost 5% and was also denied at its 50-day line.

GROUP ACTION - How top-rated groups acted today. (Group leader in parentheses)
Weak groups led today's market which is never a good sign for growth investors like us. Home builders, banks, finance, retail and other "dogs" were today's top groups.

Computer manufacturers (AAPL) dropped 1.8% on Dell's weak forecasts. Gold stocks (ABX) lost 1.6% as gold consolidates at around $790. Gold is seasonally strong in December and may stage another run to new highs.

CURRENT MARKET TREND: Markets are now in a confirmed rally. The time is right to be looking for our top-rated stocks moving out of sound price patterns on heavy volume.

Please refer to our stock picks section for a list of these.

More....

2007-11-18T17:04:00.000-08:00

MARKET CORRECTION MAY BE FINDING SUPPORT

The Nasdaq has been the leading index of the recent past. As this correction continues it is noteworthy that the index appears to be finding support at its 200-day moving average. Watching how the Nasdaq reacts around this key support area will tell us lots about the health of the markets.

EARNINGS CALENDAR
Important earnings releases coming this week:

Monday: Hewlett-Packard, Nordstrom, Focus Media
Tuesday: Blue Coat Systems, Freddie Mac, Mobil Telesis, China Medical
Wednesday: Trina Solar, Deere
Thursday:
Friday:

ECONOMIC REPORTS& EVENTS CALENDAR
Important economic reports coming this week:
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC Minutes
Wednesday: Crude Inventories, Crude Inventories, Leading Indicators
Thursday:
Friday:

THE BOTTOM LINE:
The market is now going through a “correction” which means that the general trend of the market is now down. It does not pay to fight this trend so we do not recommend being in stocks right now. Avoid making new any new purchases. Immediately take profits on your minor winners and cut your losses quickly on any stock that is below your purchase price. You will want to take all or at least take some profits on your big winners that you have held for awhile.

Lets not forget that we are in the middle of the biggest global boom in history and that China, India, and other emerging markets are growing rapidly. Will the housing melt-down, credit crisis and the threat of hyper-inflation trump the incredible global growth story?

As more signs emerge that the US economy is weakening, the Fed will be more likely to cut rates and stimulate the economy. Stocks like this, so be prepared for more volatililty both to the upside as well as the down. Markets can turn around on a dime and a new rally can begin.

We are monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements. Patience is key. As the great Jesse Livermore said – "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" See our free tutorials for more.

For subscribers, I have assembled charts of some interesting stocks. Please take a look at them at http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/chartsM.html

Please login for today's stock-picks.
http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/stockpicksM.html

2007-11-14T16:26:00.001-08:00

LAST MINUTE SELLERS SPOIL GAINS -
DAILY BRIEFING – November 14, 2007

A wave of last minute sellers spoiled todays early gains. The Nasdaq was turned away as it approached its 50-day moving average and closed down 1.1%. The Dow lost 0.6% and the S&P 500 lost 0 .7%. On a postive note, volume was lighter than yesterday across the board.

The Dow and S&P 500 as well as the S&P 600 small cap indexes are all bearishly below their 200-day moving averages. If a new rally is going to gain any steam, look for the major indexes to re-take this line on strong volume.

HOW LEADING STOCKS ACTED more

2007-11-13T17:30:00.000-08:00

NASDAQ VAULTS 3.5% AFTER 3 DAYS OF HEAVY SELLING
DAILY BRIEFING – November 13, 2007

The Nasdaq rebounded off its 200-day moving average on a gap this morning and advanced 3.5%. The Dow and S&P 500 were up strongly, advancing 2.9% and 2.5% respectively. The indexes had experienced 3 relentless days of heavy selling. Volume was above average but this rebound came on lighter volume than yesterday's sell off. The Dow and S&P 500 also still remain below their 200-day moving averages.

HOW LEADING STOCKS ACTED
Diana Shipping vaulted 19% while fellow dry bulk shipper Dryships surged 17%. New Oriental Education gained 15%. Bidu.com and VMware moved up 13%. Apple and Focus Media advanced 11%. RIM was up 10%. CVRD and So. Peru Copper moved up 7%. First Solar, Suntech Power, and Mechel Steel advanced 6% today.

GROUP ACTION - How the leading groups acted today. (Group leader in parentheses)
Computer Manufacturers (AAPL) +7.4%. Internet Content (BIDU) +7%. Foreign Banks (HDB) +6.6%. Fertilizer Companies (POT) +5%. Shippers (DRYS,DSX) +4.8%. Steel Producers (MTL) +4.7%.

CURRENT MARKET TREND
The markets are in a correction and the "line of least resistance" is now down. Three out of four stocks follow the general market trend so buying and holding stocks is currently difficult.

We are now looking for a new rally to begin. The first thing we need is an up day on any of the major indexes (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, or NYSE). Then we're looking for a follow-through day which confirms a rally is underway. This is when a major index stages a big move (1.7% +) on heavy volume. This must occur on day 4 or later. Not every follow-through works, but every bull market begins with one.

More....

2007-11-11T17:34:00.000-08:00

WEEKEND BRIEFING
Notes for the Week of November 12 - November 16, 2007

EARNINGS CALENDAR
Important earnings releases coming this week:

Monday: Telefonica
Tuesday: Excel Marine, Obagi Medical Prods., Wal-Mart
Wednesday: Diana Shipping, Network Appliance, Sina.com, Woodard Gov.
Thursday: Suntech, GSOL
Friday: Shanda Interactive

ECONOMIC REPORTS& EVENTS CALENDAR
Important economic reports coming this week:
Tuesday: Pending Home Sales
Wednesday: Crude Inventories, Retail Sales, PPI, Core PPI
Thursday: Initial Claims for Unemployment, CPI, Core CPI
Friday: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization

All eyes will be on the consumer and inflation this week as we get key numbers on the Consumer Price Index, and Producer prices. Throw in pending home sales and retail sales and you've got a big week ahead.

As more signs emerge that the US economy is weakening, the Fed will be more likely to cut rates and stimulate the economy. Stocks like this, so be prepared for more volatililty both to the upside as well as the down. Markets can turn around on a dime and a new rally can begin.

We are monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements. Patience is key. As the great Jesse Livermore said – "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" See our free tutorials for more.

For subscribers, I have assembled charts of some interesting stocks. Please take a look at them at http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/chartsM.html

Please login for today's stock-picks.
http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/stockpicksM.html

2007-11-04T22:09:00.001-08:00

TECH STOCKS TAKING THE LEAD - RALLY CONTINUES DESPITE FINANCIAL FALLOUT

WEEKEND BRIEFING
Notes for the Week of November 5 - November 9, 2007

EARNINGS CALENDAR
Important earnings releases coming this week:

Monday: Activision, Quintana Maritime, Sun Hydraulics
Tuesday: Blue Nile, Indymac, Valero
Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Ctrip.com, Fluor, Foster Wheeler, Yamana Gold
Thursday: Comtech Group, Nvdia, Perini, Priceline.com, TBS Intl.
Friday: JA Solar, Gold Corp

ECONOMIC REPORTS& EVENTS CALENDAR
Important economic reports coming this week:

Wednesday: Crude Inventories, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit (Sep)
Thursday: Initial Claims for Unemployment
Friday: Export Prices (ex. ag), Import Prices (ex. oil), Trade Balance, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

THE BOTTOM LINE:
The markets were very volatile this week partly due to earnings season and continued weakness and uncertainty in the financial sector. Crocs disappointed and was torpedoed, down 36% in one day! But in spite of all the negative news about the sub-prime fallout, the global credit crisis, multi-billion dollar corporate write-downs, and other assorted catastrophes, leading stocks are moving higher.

Ben Bernanke cut the Fed funds rate another quarter point on Wednesday driving gold over $800 an ounce for the first time since the early 80's. The dollar keeps making new historic lows, and oil briefly topped $96 on the futures market. Other commodity prices are soaring as the Fed continues to look the other way.

Lets not forget that we are in the middle of the biggest global boom in history and that China, India, and other emerging markets are growing rapidly. Will the credit crisis and the threat of hyper-inflation trump the incredible global growth story? So far, the bulls are winning the fight. Stay tuned for more exciting action.

As more signs emerge that the US economy is weakening, the Fed will be more likely to cut rates and stimulate the economy. Stocks like this, so be prepared for more volatililty both to the upside as well as the down.

We are now 10 weeks into a “confirmed” market rally. Most rallies last 20-30 weeks. You want to own stocks during rallies and be out of the markets or sell stocks short during market downturns.

After the markets have rallied about 18 weeks, the chance of “climax tops” increases. This is when many leading stocks move up very sharply in price and can make a significant “top.” You will want to sell shares as these stocks “climax.” We will be looking out for these situations.

The Nasdaq has logged 4 distribution days in recent weeks. The S&P 500 has logged 5, and the Dow has also had 5. Heavy volume selling (“distribution”) is a sign that institutional traders are dumping shares. Distribution days can occur during healthy rallies, but if we get too many in a short period of time it may signal a change of trend. Distribution does not appear to be a problem at present, but the days are adding up. For this rally to be killed, we also need to see leading stocks get in to trouble. So far, they are holding up very well.

Disciplined trading is essential. Don’t chase stocks more than 5% past our buy points. As always, sell any stock that is down 7-8% below your purchase price. If your stock closes below our “buy point” in heavier volume than on the day of the breakout, it’s also advisable to cut your losses.

We are monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements. Make sure you always cut your losses early and let your profits run. Patience is key. As the great Jesse Livermore said – "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" See our free tutorials for more.

For subscribers, I have assembled charts of some interesting stocks. Please take a look at them at http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/chartsM.html

Please login for today's stock-picks.
http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/stockpicksM.html

2007-10-26T18:51:00.000-07:00

WEEKEND BRIEFING
Notes for the Week of October 29- November 2, 2007

OUR TOP 3 STOCK PICKS OF THIS RALLY
(Performance of our recommendations from our buy point. This rally started on August 29, 2007)
BIDU.COM + 58.8%
DIANA SHIPPING + 57.3%
INTUITIVE SURGICAL +43.1%

EARNINGS CALENDAR
Important earnings releases coming this week:

Monday: Sohu.com
Tuesday: Wynn, Chipotle Mex Grill, Under Armour
Wednesday: Barrick Gold, Garmin, Huron Consl, Manitowoc, Mastercard, Transocean
Thursday: Cynosure, Capella Edu, Mindray Medical, Oceaneering Intl
Friday: Chevron

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS CALENDAR
Important economic reports coming this week:

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: FOMC MEETING, Q3 GDP, Crude Inventories
Thursday: Initial Claims for Unemployment, Personal Spending, Personal Income
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment

THE BOTTOM LINE:
The markets were strong this week despite last week's dramatic sell off. In spite of all the negative news about the sub-prime fallout, the global credit crisis, multi-billion dollar corporate write-downs, and other assorted catastrophes, leading stocks are moving higher.

As more signs emerge that the US economy is weakening, the Fed will be more likely to cut rates and stimulate the economy. Stocks like this, so be prepared for more volatility both to the upside as well as the down. Investors are expecting the Fed to cut at least a quarter point and maybe even a half point on Wednesday. The market could really take off if it gets the cut its hoping for. Watch out below if it gets disappointed.

We are now 9 weeks into a “confirmed” market rally. Most rallies last 20-30 weeks. You want to own stocks during rallies and be out of the markets or sell stocks short during market downturns.

After the markets have rallied about 18 weeks, the chance of “climax tops” increases. This is when many leading stocks move up very sharply in price and can make a significant “top.” You will want to sell shares as these stocks “climax.” We will be looking out for these situations.

The Nasdaq has logged 5distribution days in recent weeks. The S&P 500 has also logged 5, and the Dow has had 3. Heavy volume selling (“distribution”) is a sign that institutional traders are dumping shares. Distribution days can occur during healthy rallies, but if we get too many in a short period of time it may signal a change of trend. Distribution does not appear to be a problem at present, but the days are adding up.

Disciplined trading is essential. Don’t chase stocks more than 5% past our buy points. As always, sell any stock that is down 7-8% below your purchase price. If your stock closes below our “buy point” in heavier volume than on the day of the breakout, it’s also advisable to cut your losses.

We are monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements. Make sure you always cut your losses early and let your profits run. Patience is key. As the great Jesse Livermore said – “"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" See our free tutorials for more.

For subscribers, I have assembled charts of some interesting stocks. Please take a look at them at http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/chartsM.html

Please login for today's stock-picks.
http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/stockpicksM.html

2007-10-20T11:21:00.000-07:00

WEEKEND BRIEFING
Notes for the Week of October 22-26, 2007

EARNINGS CALENDAR
Important earnings releases coming this week:

Monday: Apple, Haliburton, Merck, Weatherford
Tuesday: Amazon, Coach, Precision Castparts, Riverbed Tech, Smith Intl.
Wednesday: National Oilwell Varco, VMware, Freeport McMoran, Core Labs, Symantec
Thursday: Bidu.com, Celgene, Comp Vale Do Rio, Potash, Intercontinental Exch, Vasco Data Sec.
Friday: Baker Hughes, Countrywide Fin.

ECONOMIC REPORTS CALENDAR
Important economic reports coming this week:

Wednesday:Existing Home Sales, Crude Inventories
Thursday: Initial Claims for Unemployment, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales
Friday: Michigan (Consumer) Sentiment - Rev.

THE BOTTOM LINE:
Investor's nerves were definatley tested last week. Friday's heavy volume drop of the indexes and some leading stocks raises some red flags. You may want to lock in profits or cut back on weaker stocks. If you are on margin, you may want to reduce your risk level.

As more signs emerge that the US economy is weakening, the Fed will be more likely to cut rates and stimulate the economy. Stocks like this, so be prepared for more volitililty both to the upside as well as the down.

We are now 8 weeks into a “confirmed” market rally. Most rallies last 20-30 weeks. You want to own stocks during rallies and be out of the markets or sell stocks short during market downturns.

After the markets have rallied about 18 weeks, the chance of “climax tops” increases. This is when many leading stocks move up very sharply in price and can make a significant “top.” You will want to sell shares as these stocks “climax.” We will be looking out for these situations.

The Nasdaq has logged 4distribution days in recent weeks. The S&P 500 has also logged 4, and the Dow has had 2. Heavy volume selling (“distribution”) is a sign that institutional traders are dumping shares. Distribution days can occur during healthy rallies, but if we get too many in a short period of time it may signal a change of trend. Distribution does not appear to be a problem at present, but the days are adding up.

Disciplined trading is essential. Don’t chase stocks more than 5% past our buy points. As always, sell any stock that is down 7-8% below your purchase price. If your stock closes below our “buy point” in heavier volume than on the day of the breakout, it’s also advisable to cut your losses.

We are monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements. Make sure you always cut your losses early and let your profits run. Patience is key. As the great Jesse Livermore said – “"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" See our free tutorials for more.

For subscribers, I have assembled charts of some interesting stocks. Please take a look at them at http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/chartsM.html

Please login for today's stock-picks.
http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/stockpicksM.html

2007-10-18T20:28:00.001-07:00

IS THE DOLLAR READY TO COLLAPSE?
T-Bill Yields Are Collapsing Again - What's Wrong With This Picture?

3-Month T-Bill yields were almost 5% in early August, then all of a sudden they dropped by 50% to 2.4% in just a few days. Yields managed to recover during September, but now rates are falling again. This drop has substantial implications for the U.S. dollar.

To make a long story short, when investors lose faith in our "electronic" money (the kind Ben Bernanke can create with the click of a mouse and drop from helicopters), they stampede after "real" dollars like T-Bills. This drives yields down.

What the above chart is really showing us is a panic out of "soft" dollars into "hard" ones. Don't be surprised if we see negative rates on the T-Bill, it happened before - during the Great Depression.

2007-10-18T15:58:00.000-07:00

DAILY BRIEFING – October 18, 2007
GOOGLE - INTUITIVE SURGICAL BEAT ESTIMATES

MARKET TREND:
Markets are in a confirmed rally.

After the bell, both Google and Intuitive Surgical beat earnings estimates. Shares of ISRG were up as much as 6% in after-hours trading after soaring 8% in the regular session. Goole shares were also higher after-hours.

GENERAL MARKETS:
The Dow lost 4 points (0.03%). The Nasdaq gave back .2%. The S&P 500 moved down 0.1%. Volume was lighter across the board. Oil moved back above $89.

HOW LEADING STOCKS ACTED:
Intuitive Surgical moved up 8% today after pulling back in recent days ahead of eanings. Diana Shipping vaulted 11% after Jim Cramer featured dry bulk shippers on his TV show. Mindray Medical, JA Solar, and Dryships all gained 4%. Obagi Medical awoke from a short hibernation and gained 3%. Barrick Gold, Transocean, Freeport McMoran, and Researh in Motion all gained 3%.

On the downside, Cynosure lost 6% and closed below its buy point on heavy volume. If you own this stock you may want to sell 1/4 - 1/2 of your position as this is a sign of weakness. Vasco Data Security gave back 4% in its second day of heavy volume selling. The stock is still above its 21 & 50-day moving averages. Las Vegas Sands fell 3% and has been pulling back in tame volume.

Among the leading groups, dry bulk shippers (DRYS, DSX, TBSI, EXM) were up 2.2%. Steel producers (SID, MTL, MT) had another good session, advancing 2.1%. Gold stocks (AEM, ABX) shined, moving up 2%. Oil & Gas Drillers (RIG, GSF, NE) jumped 1.5%. Integrated oil & gas stocks (SNP, PTR) were down 1.3% after an explosive week.

Stocks never go straight up and "distribution days," occur even in healthy markets. These occur when when a major index (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, or NYSE) sells off in heavier volume than the day before. This is a sign that large Institutional traders are dumping shares. Since 3 out of 4 stocks follow the general markets, it pays to pay attention.

When you get too many distribution days in a short period of time, it definately raises a red flag. We are now starting to get to that point, but we're not there yet. The Nasdaq now has 3, the S&P 500 has 2, and the Dow has had 1 distribution day in recent weeks.

For this rally to really be killed we also need to see leading stocks get into trouble. So far they have been holding up well.

2007-10-17T17:02:00.000-07:00

DAILY BRIEFING – October 17, 2007
OIL BACKS DOWN - CHINA ETF SOARS 10%

MARKET TREND:
Markets are in a confirmed rally.

After the bell, eBAY beat earnings estimates but takes one time charge for Skype. Shares were up 8%, then backed off in after hours trading.

GENERAL MARKETS:
The Dow lost 20 points (0.1%). The Nasdaq led the pack again with a gain of 1%. The S&P 500 moved up 0.2%. Volume was heavier across the board. Oil backed off to $87 after getting close to $89 yesterday.

HOW LEADING STOCKS ACTED:
The FXI - China ETF moved up 10% and made a new high. It sits about 75% above its 200-day moving average. This is a warning sign that it is getting too extended. Blue Coat Systems was up 8%. Mindray Medical jumped 5%. Vmware, and Research in Motion gained 4%. Bidu.com, Google, Diana Shipping and Dryships gained 3%.

Bidu.com, and Dryships are recovering after recent heavy selling. Intuitive Surgical has been selling off ahead of tomorrows earnings report, and lost support of its 21-day moving average. The stock has been consistently beating earnings estimates in recent quarters.

Solar stocks sold off after being up in the morning. JA Solar and Sunpower closed lower and First Solar gave up a 6% gain to close up only 16 cents.

Cynosure has pulled back from its recent high in light volume and was up 19 cents today.

Stocks never go straight up and "distribution days," occur even in healthy markets. These occur when when a major index (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, or NYSE) sells of in heavier volume than the day before. This is a sign that large Institutional traders are dumping shares.

When you get too many distribution days in a short period of time, it definitely raises a red flag. We are now starting to get to that point, but we're not there yet. The Nasdaq now has 3, the S&P 500 has 2, and the Dow has had 1 distribution day in recent weeks.

For this rally to really be killed we also need to see leading stocks get into trouble. So far they have been holding up well.

More....

2007-10-16T17:33:00.000-07:00

DAILY BRIEFING – October 16, 2007
LEADERS HOLD AS MARKET SELLS OFF - OIL HITS $88 A BARREL

MARKET TREND:
Markets are in a confirmed rally.

After the bell, Intel and Yahoo beat earnings estimates and were higher in after hours trading.

GENERAL MARKETS:
The Dow lost 72 points (0.5%). The Nasdaq lost 0.6%. The S&P 500 gave back 0.7%. Volume was mixed and the Nadsaq logged another "distribution day" (heavy institutional selling). The Nasdaq now has 4, the S&P 500 has 2, and the Dow has had 1 distribution day in recent weeks.

Stocks never go straight up and "distribution days" occur even in healthy markets. But when you get too many in a short period of time, it definitely raises a red flag. We are now starting to get to that point, but we're not there yet.

For this rally to really be killed we also need to see leading stocks get into trouble. So far they have been holding up well in general.

HOW LEADING STOCKS ACTED:
Oil continued higher as crude hit $88 a barrel. There was more selling pressure today and most leading stocks have been pulling back to key support areas like the 21 and 50-day moving averages.

Shippers continued their huge move. Excel Maritime, Qmar Maritime, and TBS International all hit new highs. Dryships also hit a new high before reversing in heavy volume.

Solars moved up lon the strength of oil as an alternative energy source. First Solar was up 3% and JA Solar moved 1.1%.

Industrial Machinery stocks also did well today. Robbins & Meyers gapped up $11.05 to
$72.14.

Some leading stocks pulled back near their pivot points like Cynosure which dropped 4% and sits just above its buy point. Crocs Inc. lost 1.3% and is now at its buy point from a 3-weeks tight base.

Other leaders that are near their 21-day moving average are RIMM, BIDU, FCX, FMCN, ISRG, OII, POT and RIO.

Leading stocks that made a new high or new closing high today were EDU, DRYS, AAPL, and FSLR.

More....

2007-10-15T15:46:00.000-07:00

WEEKEND BRIEFING
Notes for the Week of October 15-19, 2007

EARNINGS CALENDAR
Important earnings releases coming this week:

Monday: EDU, CITI Tuesday: YAHOO, INTC
Wednesday: EBAY Thursday: ISRG, GOOG, SPWR, BAC
Friday: SLB

ECONOMIC REPORTS CALENDAR
Important economic reports coming this week:

Tuesday: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
Wednesday: CPI, Core CPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Crude Inventories
Fed’s Beige Book
Thursday: Initial Claims for Unemployment

THE BOTTOM LINE:

We are now 7 weeks into a “confirmed” market rally. Most rallies last 20-30 weeks. You want to own stocks during rallies and be out of the markets or sell stocks short during market downturns.

After the markets have rallied about 18 weeks, the chance of “climax tops” increases. This is when many leading stocks move up very sharply in price and can make a significant “top.” You will want to sell shares as these stocks “climax.” We will be looking out for these situations.

The Nasdaq has logged 2 distribution days in recent weeks. The S&P 500 has also logged 2, and the Dow is now on the board with 1. Heavy volume selling (“distribution”) is a sign that institutional traders are dumping shares. Distribution days can occur during healthy rallies, but if we get too many in a short period of time it may signal a change of trend. Distribution does not appear to be a problem at present.

Disciplined trading is essential. Don’t chase stocks more than 5% past our buy points. As always, sell any stock that is down 7-8% below your purchase price. If your stock closes below our “buy point” in heavier volume than on the day of the breakout, it’s also advisable to cut your losses.

We are monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements. Make sure you always cut your losses early and let your profits run. Patience is key. As the great Jesse Livermore said – “"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" See our free tutorials for more.

For subscribers, I have assembled charts of some interesting stocks. Please take a look at them at http://www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/chartsM.html

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2007-10-12T16:38:00.000-07:00

MARKETS COME BACK STRONG AFTER YESTERDAY’S SCARE
Stock-Picks & Subscriber Notes – October 12, 2007

MARKET PULSE: Markets are in a confirmed rally.

GENERAL MARKETS:
The Dow gained 78 points (0.6%). The Nasdaq moved up 1.2%. The S&P 500 advanced 0.5%. Volume was lighter than yesterday across the board.

HOW LEADING STOCKS ACTED:
Bidu.com got its “mojo” back today and rallied $14 on 4 times normal volume. The leading Chinese Internet stock bounced off its 21-day moving average and moved up 5% after giving up 10% yesterday.

Other leaders that got hammered yesterday put on a good show. These names include JA Solar, Dryships, FXI, Amazon.com, and Vasco Data Security.

Leading shoemaker Crocs Inc. is putting in a 3-weeks tight pattern. The buy point is posted on our stock picks list.

JA Solar vaulted 9%. Dryships jumped 7%. FXI, BIDU, RIO, and VDSI advanced 5%. First Solar and Vimple Comm added 4%. Amazon.com, Apple, and Potash Corp moved up 3%.

On the downside Precision Castparts lost 1.5% and Cynosure gave back 0.6%.
RIG, GOOG, VIP, and DRYS all made a new high or a new closing high today.

BOTTOM LINE: Markets are in a confirmed rally.
We are 6 weeks into this rally. Most rallies last 20-30 weeks. After about 18 weeks, the chance of “climax tops” increases. You want to own stocks during rallies and be out of the markets or sell short during market downturns.

The Nasdaq has logged 2 distribution days in recent weeks. The S&P 500 has also logged 2, and the Dow is now on the board with 1. Heavy volume selling (“distribution”) is a sign that institutional traders are dumping shares. Distribution days can occur during healthy rallies, but if we get too many in a short period of time it may signal a change of trend. I am not overly concerned about the markets right now.

Disciplined trading is essential. Don’t chase stocks more than 5% past proper buy points. As always, sell any stock that is down 7-8% below your purchase price. If your stock closes below the “buy point” in heavier volume than on the day of the breakout, it’s also advisable to cut your losses.

We are monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements. Make sure you cut your losses early and let your profits run. Patience is key. As the great Jesse Livermore said – “"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"

For subscribers, I have assembled charts of some interesting stocks. Please take a look at them at www.goldenticker.com/amember/members/chartsM.html

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2007-09-18T21:18:00.000-07:00

WHERE ARE ALL THE BIG BUYERS?

I don't want to be the one to rain on this parade, but volume was conspicously absent today. No doubt, this was a monster day today for the markets - one of the biggest in a year. The Fed clearly "stoked" the markets today as Larry Kudlow, Jim Cramer, bankers, brokers, former "house flippers", over-extended middle-class consumers, and most other Americans cheered on. The TV was full of praises for "Uncle Ben." Big volume today would have told us that "institutional' investors were buying heavily. Since they control about 75% of the buying power, it pays to watch them. It seems however that either they never came back from "the Hamptons" after Labor day, or that they were not overly anxious to jump right in. Was today's run-up just short-covering and a one day party? Or will the big boys join the party later this week? Will they "attack" this market that has risen lately on the "vapors" of scant volume? Stay tuned...this could get interesting.

WHERE ARE ALL THE BIG BUYERS?

I don't want to be the one to rain on this parade, but volume was conspicously absent today. No doubt, this was a monster day today for the markets - one of the biggest in a year. The Fed clearly "stoked" the markets today as Larry Kudlow, Jim Cramer, bankers, brokers, former "house flippers", over-extended middle-class consumers, and most other Americans cheered on. The TV was full of praises for "Uncle Ben."

Big volume today would have told us that "institutional' investors were buying heavily. Since they control about 75% of the buying power, it pays to watch them. It seems however that either they never came back from "the Hamptons" after Labor day, or that they were not overly anxious to jump right in.

Was today's run-up just short-covering and a one day party? Or will the big boys join the party later this week? Will they "attack" this market that has risen lately on the "vapors" of scant volume? Stay tuned...this could get interesting.

2007-09-18T18:19:00.000-07:00

"UNCLE BEN" CAVES IN TO U.S. CONSUMERS

In a desperate effort to save the U.S. economy and the consumer, the Federal Reseve cut the Fed funds rate and the Discount rate by 1/2%. Given the choice of tanking the dollar or the economy, they chose inflation over fiscal restraint. Remember, there are no free lunches, and we are going to pay dearly for this in the form of much higher prices and less purchasing power for the dollar.

It is becoming clear that current policy in the U.S. is to not defend the dollar, for defending it would actually mean raising interest rates which would choke the already fragile economy.

2007-09-07T16:32:00.001-07:00

MARKETS FALL ON WEAK JOBS REPORT - HEAVY SELLING CASTS DOUBT ON LATEST RALLY - GOLD RALLIES AGAIN AS THE DOLLAR FALLS ON INFLATION WORRIES

The markets fell on heavier volume today making for the second "distribution day" since this latest rally got confirmation on August 29th. Distribution is an indication that institutional traders are unloading shares and does not bode well for the market. The Nasdaq gapped down below its 50-day moving average this morning and moved lower on heavier trade.

The Dow and the Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, and the S&P 600 small cap index gave back 2%. The GoldenTicker.com TML-30 index of the "True Market Leaders" was down 2.9%.

The US dollar index closed below 80 for the first time in 15 years. Investors are betting that the dollar would weaken and more inflation could surface if the Fed cut interest rates. There is also concern over the current global credit crisis and the recent "flight to safety" out of the dollar.

Gold has been a big beneficiary of the "flight" out of dollars and other currencies as investors look for "hard assets" to park their money in. Spot gold closed above $700 today for the first time in 16 months.

2007-09-06T17:36:00.000-07:00

GOLD BREAKS OUT IN MASSIVE TRADE

The streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) broke out today in heavy volume. The index that tracks the price of gold gapped up this morning in the heaviest trade in more than a year. The 1.9% move up was good for a heavy volume breakout from a base that started in April.

Some traders believe that gold may be pricing in a rate cut from the Fed. Others are reporting that Asian, Chinese, and other central banks may be moving out of dollars and into gold in the wake of the current credit/mortgage crisis. If they are right, the dollar could come under more selling pressure and further erode it's purchasing power. The dollar index has already fallen over 30% since 2002.

2007-08-30T18:44:00.001-07:00

IS THE BULL MARKET OVER?

by Mark Gordon
Founder - GoldenTicker.com

August 30, 2007

According to William J. O'Neil in his landmark best-seller "How To Make Money In Stocks," the really big money is made in the first one or two years of a bull market. He also states that the rest of the "up" cycle is mostly a bunch of back and forth movement in the market averages. This is then followed by a bear market. So what stage are we in?

If you look at a historical chart of the Nasdaq (click on the above chart to enlarge) you can see that a major advance started in late 2002. The market ran from 1108 in October 2002 to a high of 2154 in January 2004, for a huge 94% gain. This was the first stage of the bull market where the really big money was made.

The first corrective leg (1) began as the market corrected almost 19% in eight months down to a low of 1751 in August of 2004. During this same period the S&P 500 only corrected 8.4%. A bear market is typically defined as a prolonged downturn of more than 15% on all major indexes ( Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq). This was just a normal corrective pullback during a bull market.

The Nasdaq then took off and rallied up to 2186 by December 2004, only to correct again (2). This time the index came down 14% to a low of 1890.

The third leg down (3) started in April of 2006 after reaching a high of 2376 and correcting into July to 2013, putting in a 15% correction. Again, the S&P 500 only corrected 8% qualifying this as a normal pullback.

We now appear to be putting in our fourth corrective leg (4) with the Nasdaq reaching a high of 2725 last month (July-07) and putting in a low of 2387 so far in August. This represents a 12.4% correction that we may still be in the middle of.

Since the end of the first or "money making" phase of the this bull run in January 2004, the Nasdaq has only moved up 19%. That is only about 5% per year on an annualized basis. This is the back and forth action that Mr. O'Neil described.

According to O'Neil, markets enter a "bear" phase after the markets have run up for a year or two then put in several "corrective" adjustments like the ones noted above. He then states that heavy upside volume without further price progress may signal an upcoming bear market. If you look at the volume on the Nasdaq (5) in late July and early August you will see just that.

Since the stock market is a forward thinking mechanism we usually enter a bear market while the economy is still strong and before it goes into a recession. If you wait for the economy to confirm weakess, you will be too late. Since growth stocks typically correct 1.5 to 2.5 times the general market, you must exit weak markets quickly and stay out untill we begin a new bull market.

We have had our big initial run-up and several corrective phases. We have now seen big volume without much upside progress. This odds now seem to be in favor of a bear market. Please note that nothing is certain in the stock market and the Fed can manipulate markets with adjustments in interest rates. Let the "tape" tell you what's really happening.

2007-08-17T17:50:00.000-07:00

THE FED SAVES THE DAY, FOR NOW
GoldenTicker.com Stock-Picks & Subscriber Notes – August 17, 2007

MARKETS: The Japanese stock market was down 5.4% last night and the US markets looked like they were headed for a weak opening. But before the markets opened up here the Fed lowered the discount rate by ½%. This is the rate that the Fed charges banks for loans. This is not as significant as a cut in the Fed funds rate, but it paves the way for one.

If the market doesn't get that rate cut, Friday's gains may not stick, especially since it's likely there will be plenty more news in the coming days and weeks of further troubles in the lending industry. Any mention of problems at sub-prime lenders or funds that invested in mortgages has sent stocks skidding over the past few weeks.

The Dow opened up over 300 points and closed up 233 points for a 1.8% gain. The Nasdaq surged 2.2%, and the S&P 500 gained 2.5%. Volume was however weaker across the board casting doubt on the overall strength of this move. Financials, Telcom, and Transportation stocks led the charge.

The GoldenTicker.com/TML-30 Index was up 4.3% today clearly showing strong buying in the beaten down leaders. Bidu.com was up 11.4%, Precision Cast Parts vaulted 10.4%, Crocs jumped 8.1%, New Oriental Education moved up 8%, and Southern Copper added 7.2%.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Markets are in a correction. The “line of least resistance” is down so the odds are the market will continue lower.

Although most economic gauges remain in good shape, investor’s nerves have been rattled by the global credit crunch, weakness in the financial and housing sectors, and the sub-prime mortgage debacle. We never know how low these sell offs can go, so quick defensive action is advised. It does not pay to fight the trend.

Avoid making any new purchases. We recommend selling all stocks that have either shown a small profit, a loss, or have come under unusual selling pressure. If it looks like a bear and smells like a bear, it’s a bear. You would be wise to remain in cash until we get a follow-through day on big volume and high quality stocks break out of sound bases.

As for shorting stocks right now; many leading stocks have broken down hard off their recent highs but they are still high-risk shorts. According to our trading rules, the best shorts are the former leaders that trade 1 million shares a day on average. After their initial fall, we are looking for several failed rally attempts back above their 50-day moving averages. Some stocks that look interesting are Bidu.com, Crox, Intercontinental Exchange, Arcelor Mittal, Manitowoc, National Oil Well Varco, and Vimpel Communications.

This is now the time to review and analyze all your trades from this last rally. Print out a chart for each of your trades and mark your buy and sell points. Also make notes of why you bought the stock and why you sold it. Make notes of your mistakes and your good trades. This is one of the best learning experiences you can have in trading. It’s also a great time to re-read “How To Make Money In Stocks” by William O’Neil.

We are now monitoring leading stocks for ones that have held up well during this sell-off. Research shows that these stocks have potential to lead the next rally. Leaders that are holding up well are Amazon.com, Celgene, Garmin, Intuitive Surgical, Priceline.com, Research In Motion, and Vasco Data Security. As always, we are also monitoring the markets closely and we will keep you informed of any important movements.

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2007-08-16T18:40:00.000-07:00

EXTREME FEAR GRIPS MARKETS BEFORE THEY REVERSE

GoldenTicker.com Stock-Picks & Subscriber Notes – August 16, 2007

MARKETS: There’s going to be lots of talk tonight of the reversal of stocks today and how this is a sign of a bottom. But make no mistake about it; the line of least resistance is down so the odds are that the market will continue lower. We may get a short-term bounce soon but it will most likely fail. If it looks like a bear and smells like a bear, it’s a bear. You would be wise to remain in cash until we get a follow-through day on big volume and high quality stocks break out of sound bases.

Although the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all staged strong reversals today, leading stocks as gauged by our GoldenTicker.com/TML-30 Index were down 3.4% today. If we do get a rally tomorrow it will probably be led by the beaten down sectors like the financials.

As for shorting stocks right now; many leading stocks have broken down hard off their recent highs but they are still high-risk shorts. According to our trading rules, the best shorts are the former leaders that trade 1 million shares a day on average. After their initial fall, we are looking for several failed rally attempts back above their 50-day moving averages. Some stocks that look interesting are Bidu.com, Crox, Intercontinental Exchange, Arcelor Mittal, Manitowoc, National Oil Well Varco, and Vimpel Communications.

Today was a day of extreme volatility as panic and fear rocked stocks, precious metals, and commodities. The put-call volume ratio, which measures the number of bearish puts vs. bullish calls purchased by options traders, spiked to 1.36, one of the highest levels of the year. Extreme days like today have marked bottoms in the past. We are monitoring leading stocks for the ones that have held up the best. Research shows that these stocks have potential to lead the next rally. Leaders that are holding up well are Amazon.com, Celgene, Garmin, Intuitive Surgical, Priceline.com, Research In Motion, and Vasco Data Security.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market is now going through a “correction” which means that the general trend of the market is now down. Although most economic gauges remain in good shape, investor’s nerves have been rattled by the financial and housing sectors and the sub-prime mortgage debacle. We never know how low these sell offs can go, so quick defensive action is advised.

It does not pay to fight this trend. Avoid making new any new purchases. We recommend selling all stocks that have either shown a small profit, a loss, or have come under unusual selling pressure. We will now start looking for short sale candidates and at the same time we’ll be looking for signs of a new rally, which can happen at any time. We will of course monitor the markets and leaders daily and keep you informed.

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2007-08-10T18:01:00.000-07:00

DOW UNDERCUTS RECENT LOWS KILLING LATEST RALLY

GoldenTicker.com Trading Notes – August 10, 2007
This recent rally which was already highly suspect after yesterday’s distribution is now officially dead. It would be wise to suspend any fresh buying right now. If you got back in the markets in the last few days, it’s now best to move to the sidelines. We don’t know if this sell-off will be just a normal and temporary correction or if things will deteriorate into a full-blown bear market. Right now it’s best to raise cash and let the markets sort things out.

MARKETS: The markets had another volatile day. After the close yesterday Country Wide Financial, the nation’s largest mortgage lender said it had “unprecedented” problems. The stock cratered 20% in pre-market. Both London and Hong Kong were down 2.9% sending more jitters to US investors before the open. After a brisk sell off in the morning, stocks recovered later in the day. The Dow lost 0.2%, the S&P 500 was up 0.04%, and the Nasdaq moved down 0.5%. The Russell 2000 small cap index fared the best, closing up .5%.

The Fed came to the rescue today injecting $38 billion into the banking system. Together with the European Central Bank, $323 billion of liquidity has been added to prevent a global liquidity squeeze.

Although it’s been an extremely volatile week the indexes are actually up. For the week the Dow is up 0.4%, the S&P500 is up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq is up 1.3%.

The GoldenTicker.com/TML-30 Index was down 2.8% today. The index is made up of the strongest stocks based on fundamentals, relative strength, group strength, institutional sponsorship, and other factors. It’s a good gage of the health of high-quality, institutional grade growth stocks. Despite the heavy recent selling, 75% of the stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market is now going through a “correction” which means that the general trend of the market is now down. Although most economic gauges remain in good shape, investor’s nerves have been rattled by the financial sector and the sub-prime mortgage debacle. We never know how low these sell offs can go, so quick defensive action is advised.

It does not pay to fight this trend so we have sold all of our positions. Avoid making new any new purchases. We now recommend selling all stocks that have either shown a small profit, a loss, or have come under unusual selling pressure. We will now start looking for short sale candidates and at the same time we’ll be looking for signs of a new rally, which can happen at any time. We will of course monitor the markets and leaders daily and keep you informed.

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