Friedman On New Iraq Realities
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, History, Iraq, McCainSome sage advice for McCain from the columnist who once supported the Iraq war…
While we would like an Iraqi national movement — binding Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis — to coalesce, we don’t want it coalescing in opposition to us. Running against the continued U.S. presence in Iraq will be a very tempting campaign theme for Iraqi politicians — in both the upcoming Iraqi provincial and parliamentary elections — if Iraq continues to stabilize.So Prime Minister Maliki was actually sending us two important messages via Der Spiegel: He was telling us that to the extent that the Iraqi Army and state continue to get on their feet, the continued U.S. occupation of Iraq is going to become an issue in Iraqi politics and no politician — particularly Maliki — is going to let himself be outdone by rivals in calling for the Americans to go.
And he was also telling us to remember something: Iraq is an Arab country. It is the heart of the Arab world. It is not Germany. It is not Japan. To the extent that it comes together as a country, it will not tolerate a prolonged, highly visible U.S. military presence.
That last part is particularly interesting because McCain has talked at length about how Iraq would be like Germany, Japan, Korea, etc., but those of us opposed to a prolonged US presence in Iraq have argued that you can’t treat every country as if they were the same…especially since the last time we did this was in the early 50s.
So in much the same way that “boot on neck” democracy wouldn’t have worked in Iraq (as it did in Germany and Japan), nor will “indefinite US troop presence” work either.
Still, does anybody think McCain will change course at this point? Even with Maliki giving everybody clear signs he wants the US out sooner rather than later? Not likely.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, History, Iraq, McCain. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Wait until the Kuwaitis and the Qataris get the memo, then we can expect riots in the streets of Doha!
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:04 pm
What surer sign that democracy has taken hold in Iraq than the proliferation of sanctimonious fist-pounding, promise-making politicians? That they happen to, in this case, be arguing about who is more strongly opposed to prolonging a substantial presence of US troops counts as a mere side effect, chock full of bitter irony though it may be.
Remember, installing a democracy in Iraq was our idea. Oopsie! Careful what you wish for.
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:10 pm
What course does McCain need to change, Justin? He said we’ll get out when the conditions are right; that position *has* to include the political will of the Iraqis, not just the security/military situation. McCain’s 2004 comments are very clear about this. Does he need to “adopt a timetable?” Nope. He simply needs to be 1000x more clear than Bush ever was on what will enable us to leave with confidence. Maliki’s express desire for the U.S. to go is one piece of that. As others have pointed out, if conditions allow, I’d love to see us draw down before the 16-month point.
We also need to be realistic about how Iraq will change once we’re gone. Like the former Soviet Union and China, the Iraqi people are not accustomed to democracy, and the change will not be pleasant for some. In fact, I’d put even odds on Iraq reverting to a strongman government before we see 2028….