Britain's next government must beat mood of retreat 

LONDON — Has the political tide in Britain now turned? And is the Labour Party under Prime Minister Gordon Brown now heading for defeat?

Certainly if one goes by the recent British local election results, including the election of a colorful new Conservative Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, things look very black for the Labour government and very sunny for the Conservatives under David Cameron.

Hundreds of seats in local authorities have been changing hands, with Conservative victories everywhere, even in some traditional Labour heartland areas in the industrial Midlands and North.

Meanwhile, the national opinion polls are putting the Conservatives 10 points or more ahead of Labour, indicating that if there was a general election tomorrow the Conservatives would have a small overall majority in the House of Commons, and would not have to rely on any coalitions or alliances with smaller parties to govern.

All this is an amazing change from only half a year ago when Labour still looked strong, the new Prime Minister Gordon Brown was settling in after a decade of leadership by Tony Blair, and the Conservatives were still languishing.

What has changed to make this happen?

One factor is of course the fresh and dynamic leadership of the Conservative Opposition, dominated by two able young men, Cameron and George Osborne, who have deliberately recast the Conservatives in a forward-looking and appealing role. An equal factor has been the sheer lack of appeal of Brown.

After the always bright and quick-talking Blair, he somehow seems a dour and dismal character, full of economic expertise but not much else. This may be unfair, but it is how he is now almost universally seen.

Of course the political climate is basically shaped by far bigger things than mere personalities. First there is the unavoidable pendulum effect in democratic politics. People get bored of one political party in office. After 10 years or so, popular opinion gets restless. Deep in the British mind is a centuries-old dislike of too much domination by one character for too long. Margaret Thatcher found this when she decided to cling to office after the 10-year limit.

Blair withdrew after 10 years, and is now attempting to play new roles on the world stage, and Labour hoped that a new face would refresh its rule. But so far it has clearly not worked out that way and the momentum for change not just of leader but of political party is building up.

Then there are the biggest factors of all — namely events.

First, the economic climate is beginning to look distinctly chilly. The whole European economy is slowing down somewhat and the great American economic engine is stalling. The effects of the worldwide credit crunch may not be as disastrous as many bankers have been asserting, but the atmosphere of boom and party time, with house prices hitting the roof, is definitely over and the economic mood is sobering up. Big job losses have already occurred in Britain's massive financial sector and may be about to spread to industry generally.

This may not necessarily be the British government's fault. Governments in the past have survived in office during economic downturns. Besides there is two years to go yet before a general election has to be held in Britain. But somehow it takes the shine off all Labour's bold promises for a more prosperous Britain and the end of "boom and bust."

But there could be an even deeper factor at work still, and one that the Conservatives as well as Labour need to understand if they are to maintain their winning streak. This is that the British people need not only jobs and not only good social conditions. They need to have a sense of direction and purpose in a bewildering and frightening world, and that is something that only truly deep, wise, reflective and articulate leadership can supply. It cannot come from opinion polls, focus groups or clever public relations.

People sense that Britain is drifting. It is uncomfortable with the old "special relationship" with the United States, where direction has also been lost during the last days of President George W. Bush. It is unhappy with too much European Union integration and the idea of the EU as a single bloc, and it has yet to adjust to the turbulent new network world in which power and wealth seem to be shifting away altogether from the Atlantic nations and toward the new Asia.

The mood is therefore one of confusion and retreat. Big shadows loom from unending chaos in the Middle East, soaring oil and food prices, terrorist threats and environmental dangers — which feel especially acute in crowded island countries like Britain. There is of course an analogy here with the restless political mood in Japan.

There is also another analogy between the two island monarchies. Both countries have a potentially good sense of national identity and deeply rooted cultures. In the near-anarchic world ahead, they are probably far better placed to follow their own path and be their own masters, albeit unselfishly and responsibly, than many other societies.

This is the positive story that has to be told to turn the mood of retreat into one of hope and advance, and that is true whether it is London, Tokyo or ,indeed, Washington.

If British Conservatives can find their voice on this most fundamental of all issues — who we are as a nation and society and where we are going — then they will indeed be home and dry, and will form the next government. The chances look good.