NL East Review: Marlins

Written by Akshay on July 3, 2008 – 1:27 pm

Man…those Devil Rays really are making a name for themselves. Evan Longoria, Rookie of the Year? Guy’s an absolute beast this year, average isn’t perfect, but his other numbers are easily better than any other rookie out there. Among qualifying rookies in both leagues, Longoria is fourth in the majors in average (.275, tops in the AL) and tops in the majors in homers (15), he is also tied for second with Geovany Soto for RBIs (50, David Murphy - 52). Among other stat categories, Longoria leads the majors in slugging (.528) and is second to Soto in OPS (.876). Yes I know I haven’t really looked at pitchers, but the best qualifying AL Rookie is 5-6 with a 3.44 ERA, not exactly sparkling even for a rookie (remember Brandon Webb and Dontrelle Willis‘ rookie years?). No that definitely got me thinking back to 1995, when a young hotshot rookie third baseman was coming off a severe ACL injury, but immediately made an impact offensively on a team that would go on to win the world series. Chipper Jones that year hit .265 with 23 home runs and 86 RBIs, he also had 23 doubles and a .450 slugging percentage…this was in 524 at-bats, Longoria’s doing his damage in half that many. At the rate he’s going, Longoria might become THE offensive threat in their line up for years to come (he also signed a long term contract that would keep him out of the first year of free agency).

Anyway, back to the real article: The Marlins, boy they were a surprise coming out of the gates and still are. But to be honest, anyone truly surprised by this just hasn’t taken a look at the recent past. The Marlins have a unique formula for winning games, getting to the playoffs and winning championships. Their owner and general manager don’t go for it every year as much as their fans would like to believe. After their first championship in 1997, they got rid of guys like Gary Sheffield, Moises Alou, Luis Castillo among hitters and Techie Kevin Brown, Rob Nen and Al Leiter among pitchers to bring in younger talent. Later in 1998 they would resume their firesale to bring in guys like…well, just take a look at this, their 2003 Championship roster:

• C - Ivan Rodriguez
• 1B - Derek Lee
• 2B - Luis Castillo
• 3B - Mike Lowell
• SS - Alex Gonzalez
• LF - Todd Hollandsworth
• CF - Juan Pierre
• RF - Juan Encarnacion
• BN - Miguel Cabrera
• BN - Mike Redmond
• SP - Carl Pavano (Healthy)
• SP - Brad Penny
• SP - Mark Redman (when he was good)
• SP - Dontrelle Willis
• SP - Josh Becket (worst starter on that staff…seriously)
• CL - Braden Looper, not the best but still good at that time.

Imagine what their team would be and how many games they would have won in the last five years had they kept those guys together. At that time only Pudge was over 30, but he’s still playing pretty decently. He’s only seen a decline this year. All of the rest of those guys are name guys, there aren’t any players on that team that would make you think, huh? who? Maybe back then, and obviously hindsight is 20/20, but still, there’s something special about a group of no-name players winning a world series.

In that regard, I initially predicted them to win one in 2009 (every six years), but the way this team’s going right now I would not be surprised to see them do it a year early. They have the talent, their offense is clicking and they are expecting some of their best pitchers back (just like the Braves, except the Marlins are actually hitting).

These are some of the highlights of their current roster and how they got the players:

• Dan Uggla - .289, 23 homer, 58 RBIs and .620 slugging (!!). Rule 5 draft pick from Arizona when they could not find room for him on the roster
• Jorge Cantu - .273, 14 homers,  struck out just 66 times in 330 at-bats. This guy was released by the Reds in December and signed to a minor league contract by the Marlins and is now an everyday player.
• Hanley Ramirez - .298, 20 home runs, 41 RBI and 72 runs scored. Came over in the Josh Beckett trade from the Red Sox and just signed the largest contract in Marlins history.
• Their outfield is pretty decent too with guys like Luis Gonzalez (who was supposed to be washed up and done), Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida (who went to my high school - Wheeler, Go Wildcats!). Not only that, they have solid backups in Alfredo Amezaga, Wes Helms and Josh Willingham
• With the exception of Mark Hendrickson, all of their starters are 25 and under. Scott Olsen got serious this year and and has a 3.47 ERA in 106.1 innings, Ricky Nolasco is 9-4 with a 3.94 ERA and they are still expecting Josh Johnson back later this season.
• In the Bullpen both Kevin Gregg and Renyel Pinto have sub-3.00 ERAs in 40+ innings for both (Gregg has pitched 39.2, close enough).

So, how do they stack up against other teams…pretty well. They are fifth in the NL in runs scored (407) and first in home runs (121). Their team batting average is pretty low (11, .253), but they step it up when there are runners on (.266). They are also fifth in OPS at .758.

Their pitching stats are surprisingly poor with a 4.54 team ERA (12), and 10 in batting average against at .262. Their bullpen, though, has been solid with a 3.71 ERA and a .241 BAA.

So after these numbers, where would the Marlins possibly need help? Well, the same place everyone else is looking, starting pitching. They may need one or two guys to get them down the stretch. Hendrickson has been slowing down after a great start and they may need someone to spell him. They also need some help in the bullpen to stabilize that end and maybe get a set up guy for the stretch. That said, they are a very young team and have tasted losing seasons in the past, the taste of those seasons has obviously left them with a great will to win and win soon. I think the Marlins’ best baseball is ahead of them and they should be able to pull out the division as long as they keep believing in themselves.

Current Record: 44-40

Predicted Final Record: 90-72, Tied-1st NL East

- Akshay

Tags: Florida Marlins
Posted in League Analysis |