(Staturday Stand-in): You Can't Build a Good Team From Free Agents, and How the A's Got to Oakland
As AN is debating the enviable quandaries of too many good pitchers and how to rebuild & contend simultaneously, over at Lookout Landing they're already trying to figure out what went wrong. Mostly, it's just funny, but this post caught my attention.
The main conclusion is pretty clear: building a team around free agents is expensive and risky at best. Not exactly groundbreaking around these parts; a good example nonetheless.
So I threw this together for the A's, using baseball reference and my own memory.
How the A's got to Oakland
Draft
Travis Buck
Kurt Suzuki
Joe Blanton
Richard Harden
Huston Street
Eric Chavez
Bobby Crosby
Trade
Ryan Sweeney
Rob Bowen
Mark Ellis
Kiko Calero
Justin Duchscherer
Joey Devine
Jack Hannahan
Jack Cust (purchased)
Greg Smith
Donnie Murphy (purchased/waivers)
Daric Barton
Dana Eveland
Chris Denorfia
Chad Gaudin (waivers)
Andrew Brown
Free Agent
Mike Sweeney
Keith Foulke
Emil Brown
Alan Embree
Rajai Davis (waivers)
Frank Thomas
Int'l Free Agent
Santiago Casilla
Obvious conclusion that we all know: Beane is an exceptional trader. I wonder how sustainable that team-building approach is -- some GM's have publicly announced that they won't trade with BB anymore. I was particularly surprised at how many of our guys came from KC. (Maybe there's a dangerous conclusion to that.)
Most of the traded players were acquired as minor leaguers. Is it possible that the A's have a great system for "finishing" top prospect AA and AAA players? Or is there nothing to this--CarGon will be what he is, in Oakland or anywhere else? Everybody knows the story of how Beane himself was rushed into the majors. Likely that experience informs his handling of minor leaguers.
[Note by phastphill, 05/10/08 3:21 PM PDT ] I'm humbled that my fanpost was turned into a staturday! (thanks grover) Some folks have pointed out mistakes in my research, so I edited some of the details. Hopefully it's all accurate (if not 100% thorough) now.
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I didn't realize it....
but that is impressive. I knew there were traded players and home grown talent all over the place, but I never broke it down to that extent in my own head.
I think the A’s teach the exact same things at each level of the minors, and apparently that isn’t the approach with every club. Although I thought it would be….I remember reading before that it wasn’t like that everywhere.
by passionately objective on May 9, 2008 3:07 PM PDT 0 recs
Did you notice...
that 5 out of 7 of the players we drafted are injury risk.
Coincidence or something else?
by GeorgiaBoy on May 9, 2008 3:59 PM PDT 0 recs
Meaning...?
That they were an injury risk at the time, or they are one now?
by passionately objective on
May 9, 2008 4:12 PM PDT
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Another thing to note ...
those 6 free agents are paid less than $6m, combined.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on May 9, 2008 4:19 PM PDT 0 recs
the trading of other teams minor leaguers.
You wondered if the A’s had some system developed better than others for developing players.
First off, CarGon is a real talent, and I’m ecstatic for the Haren trade already, let alone when he comes up.
It was noted earlier (March?) how the A’s do a fantastic job at the top of the draft of getting guys who can produce at the MLB level, quickly.
So, yes, they draft and trade well, mostly. And the FA’s aren’t bad either. Serious, which of those six do any of us really NOT want on the A’s this year? Are we still having to discuss whether or not Billy Beane is a fantastic GM? Sheesh.
by ChrisCEIT on May 9, 2008 10:13 PM PDT 0 recs
I'm curious,
which GMs have actually gone on the record saying that they won’t trade with Beane?
Looking at Beane’s record over the last several years, he has made trades with diverse GMs / FOs from a range of teams, whether “stat head” or “old school”. Just off the top of my head, he has made trades with “old school” GMs / FOs like Schuerholz, Wren, Krivsky, Williams, Jocketty, Dombrowski, Moore; and “stat head” GMs / FOs like Josh Byrnes, Ricciardi, Towers.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on May 10, 2008 12:45 AM PDT 0 recs
urban legend has it that Bavasi said it...
I’ve never seen the quote.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on
May 10, 2008 2:20 AM PDT
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Bavasi has stated that he won't trade within the division.
He hasn’t named Beane specifically; that’s just speculation.
But here’s the logic: “The division” is just Oakland, Anaheim, and Texas. Angels rarely trade with anyone, so that’s not saying much. Texas is an exception, because Bavasi did trade with Texas (Ben Broussard for Tug Hulett, last December). That leaves Oakland. Therefore, “won’t trade within the division” equals “won’t trade with Beane”.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think Bavasi has actually made up his mind to never ever trade with Beane. I do think they don’t have a working relationship, and Bavasi has no interest in developing one.
formerly known as mdl
by iglew on
May 10, 2008 3:33 AM PDT
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Tampa's old regime wouldn't deal with Beane after shipping Lidle to Oakland
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 10, 2008 8:49 AM PDT
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Back in the day, when Baltimore was a perennial power
writers constantly discussed the strength of their minor league system, both in drafting players and in bringing them through the system, preparing them well for the major league club. I’ve seen similar things written about other clubs (although Baltimore comes to my mind in particular, since it was mentioned quite a bit at the time). That was during the time when you didn’t see the kind of disproportionate major league club payrolls and profits from media and corporate sponsorships that we see today.
So I think it’s been known for some time that building and maintaining a strong, consistent minor league system is the best way to instill a culture of winning and create a team that is likely to contend more often than not. Free agent signings are going to be more expensive, and are certainly paying for past performance (with the hope that it continues). They are of course important, but can’t take the place of a strong system of drafting and developing players.
by OaklandSi on May 10, 2008 7:06 AM PDT 0 recs
Overlooked Point
Just because Beane and staff didn’t acquire many of these younger players via the draft does not imply that they still don’t follow players that were on their radar screen and moving along with the teams that drafted them.
Oakland does a better job of tracking those players than just about everybody else. It's still a gamble as evidenced by the Hudson trade. Still, as Beane put it he is invigorated by the process of trading for prospects and watching them develop.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
by Gerard on May 10, 2008 7:08 AM PDT 0 recs
This is today's Staturday post, folks!
When I read phastphill’s fanpost I was inspired to dump the Staturday article I was working on and do a little research to expand on this article. I asked TPTB to promote this piece because roster construction fascinates me and phastphill provides a simple and clear look at our 2008 Oakland A’s.
Subject to change, of course.
Now I want to expand on what phastphill started. Of the 7 draftees in the current 25 man roster, 5 were 1st round picks. Kurt Suzuki was a 2nd round pick and Rich Harden was the last Draft & Follow the A’s have appearently signed in the last decade. The D&F is gone but the other 6 picks reiterate to me the importance of heavily investing in the scouting and signing of your early round picks. The A’s pick 12th overall in the upcoming draft, the main organization weaknesses (as pointed out by myself and Taj in the last weak) are at SS and 3B and it will be very difficult to find a player projected to play one of those positions that is talented enough to merit taking 12th overall unless one of the top amatuers falls out of the Top 10.
The only way THAT happens is if the player in question has signability issues. The A’s are flush with cash after trading Kotsay, Swisher and Haren… will they take advantage of that bounty to sign our hypothetical fallen amateur? We shall see. An even more worrisome idea is that the A’s reach for a less talented player who projects to play one of our troubled positions in an effort to save a bit of money. Joe Smith may have been hearing whispers that a team might draft him in the Sup 1st round (estimated bonus = $750K) but the A’s call up and say they’re willing to draft him 12th overall (2007 slot rec = 1.62 million) IF he’s willing to sign for $1.12 million. Mr. Smith undoubtedly says yes and the A’s save themselves half a million. That’s my nightmare scenario.
The A’s need to take the best available player at #12 and cost be damned. If that means going over the slot recommendation, a crime for which their is no penalty, then they need to do so.
OK, I went off on a bit of a tangent there. Back to phastphill’s article.
Two 1st round picks that you don’t see on the above list contributed to 4 names that you do see and another that we’re all familiar with. Nick Swisher begat Ryan Sweeney (and hopefully at least one of DLS or Gio) while Mark Mulder (2nd overall, 1998) brought in Calero, Barton and Dan Haren… who was then flipped for Eveland and Smith and hopefully a few more down the road. So 9 of the players on the current roster can be tied very directly to choices the A’s made in the 1st round of the draft.
Phastphill’s post is meant to replace today’s Staturday piece, so I’ll throw in a bit of jargon to satisfy any statistical needs… I recognize the SSS but but doesn’t the fact that 9 of 25 players are so closely tied to 1st round draft picks seem significant?
Moving on, this seems like a good time to point out a couple flaws in phastphill’s breakdown. Donnie Murphy and Jack Cust were essentially bought away from other organizations. Beane flat out gave the Royals a check when he acquired Murphy and, as I recall, the Padres ultimately settled for cash after dealing Cust to Oakland.
There are two more players I want to highlight in this analysis. Mark Ellis and Justin Duchscherer are unsong heros for the A’s and both were acquired by trading prospects Oakland had acquired through international FA signings. Ellis came over with Johnny Damon and Cory Lidle in a 2001 3-way trade between Oakland, KC and Tampa. (Tampa Bay, BTW, was one of the teams that refused to deal with Billy Beane for a long while because of how they got fleeced out of Lidle.) Ben Grieve got shipped to Tampa, who in-turn shipped 32 Save closer Roberto Hernandez to KC. But the player the Royals were really high on was Oakland prospect Angel Berroa, a player the A’s signed as an amateur free agent in 1997. The Royals don’t send Damon to the A’s unless they got the guy who they projected to be the next Miguel Tejada. Justin Duchscherer came over in a trade for Luis Vizcaino. Vizcaino was a hard throwing RH the A’s signed as a FA amateur out of the Dominican Republic.
To be blunt, the A’s failure to adequately invest in Latin America for most of the 21st century has not just cost them the chance to develope a big league player, it has cost them the athletic, projectionable bodies that other teams tend to look for when they make trades. I realize the A’s have made an effort in the last 6 months to expand their efforts in Latin America and I applaud them for it but Ellis and Duke stand as proof that such efforts should never be ignored again.
So thanks, phastphill, for writing this post. It inspired me to think more in-depth about how the A’s were built, how they succeed.
To me, that’s what a Staturday post is supposed to accomplish.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on May 10, 2008 8:09 AM PDT 0 recs
wasn't Shane Keough signed as 'draft and follow'
by the A’s in 2006?
by OaklandSi on
May 10, 2008 8:59 AM PDT
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Hmmm...
I’ll have to look him up.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 10, 2008 9:42 AM PDT
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I know opinions vary on this
But I think it’s a really, really stupid idea to draft for position/need in baseball – unless you’re getting a guy who is going to spend no more than half a year in the minors and he’s in your immediate plans. Nobody at 12 is going to fit that mold.
Take the best – or safest, or whatever – player you can, even if he’s a starting pitcher or a catcher or an outfielder.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on
May 10, 2008 11:04 AM PDT
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grover, if this is "Staturday"
you should insert a note to that effect at the top of the diary. I assume you can do that, if you have the power to promote a diary to the front page, or am I wrong?
by Faust on
May 10, 2008 12:22 PM PDT
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Okay, I changed it
Hopefully gets the point across without being presumptuous. :)
by phastphill on
May 10, 2008 3:23 PM PDT
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You sir, are wrong
I do not have the power to promote a diary to the front page, I had to request this promotion.
Therefore me do no editing.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 11, 2008 10:33 AM PDT
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I shoulda figured if you coulda you woulda
But no doubt TPTB are wise to keep such powers from your hands
by Faust on
May 11, 2008 4:10 PM PDT
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No doubt
The power to promote comes with the power to ban.
And you’ve been a little snarky towards me recently :-)
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
May 11, 2008 7:23 PM PDT
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Minor detail
But the A’s didn’t claim Frank Thomas off waivers. He was released outright by the Blue Jays, therefore, he didn’t pass through the waiver process. They just signed him as a free agent.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on May 10, 2008 10:53 AM PDT 0 recs
Technically
He did pass through release waivers. Any team that wanted to assume his contract obligations could have.
Of course, everyone knew that he was about to be signable for the MLB minimum… I’m not aware of any players in recent memory who have actually been claimed on release waivers, although I’m sure Milton Bradley would have been last season had the A’s not traded him before the DFA period was over.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
May 10, 2008 11:36 PM PDT
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Waivers
Chad Gaudin (Waivers from Toronto)
Donnie Murphy (Waivers from Kansas City)
by Zonis on May 10, 2008 11:36 AM PDT 0 recs
Retrosheet says that
Murphy was bought from the Royals. It also says that Gaudin was acquired with Dustin Majewski.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
May 10, 2008 12:30 PM PDT
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Poor sentence constructon
Majewski was traded for Gaudin,
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
May 10, 2008 12:30 PM PDT
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Well, Gaudin was like quite a few Waiver deals
Toronto put Gaudin on Waivers to make room for, I believe, AJ Burnett (but it might have been BJ Ryan)
A’s claim Gaudin off Waivers
A’s complete Waiver deal by ‘trading’ for Gaudin, by sending Dustin Majewski, a meh outfielder.
by Zonis on
May 10, 2008 2:09 PM PDT
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I don't understand waivers very well
because I thought it was closer to free agency than a trade.
So I should put Davis under “trade” and change big hurt to “released”?
The A’s have so many players acquired on waivers, I should probably make a heading for it. I wonder if any other teams even come close.
by phastphill on
May 10, 2008 2:58 PM PDT
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Davis was claimed on outright waivers
no player was traded for him.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
May 11, 2008 12:34 AM PDT
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If we're looking for conclusions about
what methods are most successful for constructing teams, I’d like to see analysis of more teams. So far we’ve seen only the A’s and Mariners.
My hunch is that it would show success is indeed negatively correlated with relying heavily on free agents (as Seattle currently does), but I doubt it would show that doing a lot of trading is significantly better than cultivating your own minor leaguers.
Minnesota and Anaheim are two teams that come to mind who seem to have done well without much trading. Anaheim has had some big free agent signings but they also tend well to the farm. The same could be said of the Yankees.
But like I said, this is just a hunch. I’d love to see this sort of analysis of all the teams. I don’t expect anyone to want to go through all the work, but maybe if there’s someone reading who is a fan of a team other than the A’s or M’s, they’ll want to do a similar examination of their own favorite team and share it.
formerly known as mdl
by iglew on May 10, 2008 1:15 PM PDT 0 recs
For one other data point.
Scroll down on the Mariners post and you’ll see Arizona’s lineup. Similar to Oakland’s, with more of their own drafts.
Some patterns that would make sense to me:
Many traded players on a rebuilding team, like Oakland, since by definition they trade their best chips for heaps of prospects.
Many drafted players on a team that’s going for it right now, like Arizona. If they follow a “typical” cycle, their most successful draftees would be traded in a few years for prospects when they rebuild.
Many free agents on rich (and/or poorly run!) teams.
by phastphill on
May 10, 2008 2:56 PM PDT
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OT: Cool SB Nation app
Windows Mobile Post
I guess AN isn’t the testing ground for all the boss new apps on SB Nation blogs. Come in handy for AN Day, dontcha think?
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on May 10, 2008 1:51 PM PDT 0 recs



















