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The Roar hasn’t been great on predicting, what with not even picking South Africa to be a 2007 Rugby World Cup contender.
But the prediction that the finals lineup for the 2008 Super 14 tournament would come down to the last match of 98 games in the 14 rounds, the Sharks – Chiefs, proved to be correct.
After 52 minutes when the Sharks had their four tries for a bonus point and a handsome lead, the question of the make-up of the final four was settled. Once again, as they had throughout their South African leg of the tournament, the Chiefs collapsed rather than rose to the occasion.
You can have only so much suspense before all is revealed, anyway. The Crusaders play the Hurricanes at Christchurch and the NSW Waratahs play the Sharks at Sydney.
Looking back on the tournament, a bit like one does after Hercule Poirot explains everything at the end of an Agatha Christie thriller, this finals line-up becomes obvious.
The Crusaders lost only two matches in the tournament, both to NZ teams, the Chiefs (for their biggest scalp of the year) and the Highlanders, a team that played better than its results suggested.
The Hurricanes played strongly throughout the year, had a good trip to South Africa and were unlucky to be robbed of 2 points against the Sharks at Wellington when a refereeing blunder allowed the visitors to escape with a draw. That draw meant that the Sharks could make the finals. There’s an irony here which wasn’t apparent at the time when Conrad Smith, a lawyer, was in referee Paul Marks’ face demanding he go to the video referee.
The Sharks were one of the form teams early on in the tournament. They had a strong tour out of Africa. Then they faded slightly. But they have ended the round-robin part of the tournament with momentum, which is what teams going into finals look for.
The Waratahs enter the finals with momentum, as well. They played ugly but winning rugby early on in the season. But when Ewen McKenzie finally gave Luke Burgess his chance at halfback the team had some spark in its play to go with the grind.
So we have the first final between the Crusaders and the Hurricanes – both teams that have lost momentum with losses in their last match of the pool round. In the second final, the Waratahs and the Sharks have the momentum of an on-rushing train hell bent to reach its destination as soon as possible.
I watched the Reds-Waratahs match in the Nelson Hotel in Bondi Junction (Bondi Junk, according to Madame Z). There was a large crowd of good old boys, a giggle of attractive women, and even a baby in a pram (they breed Waratahs supporters young apparently) all going through the emotions of elation (‘go, Lote, go’ was the cry as Lote Tuqiri made breaks) and of despair (‘Oh noooo,’ as Kurtley Beale missed his first three kicks at goal) as we watched and listened (to the indistinct voices of the commentators) in front of two screens on the back wall.
After the match a couple of the good old boys asked me why I didn’t watch the match at home. ‘Madame Z wanted to watch “Big Love,” the melodrama about Mormon polygamy that’s on at the same time as the Reds-Waratahs match,’ I replied.
‘Same thing for me,’ one of the good old boys replied. ‘The wife said I could watch the Crusaders and then booted me out so she could watch ‘Big Love,’ too. She’s from Melbourne,’ and no further explanation seemed to be needed.
We chatted about the prospects of the Waratahs in the finals. Perhaps emboldened by the Waratahs strong record of wins at the SFS I ventured the suggestion that they perhaps, maybe, possibly could win the entire tournament.
‘You heard it here first,’ one of the good old boys said, making a motion of scribbling some words down on a piece of paper.
‘You heard it here first,’ I replied.
I didn’t have the heart to tell him that the last time I made a prediction was when I fearlessly predicted the All Blacks would win the 2007 Rugby World Cup …