Romney Memo: Poll Position
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author
On the heels of my post below about Romney's recent slippage in New Hampshire, a new internal Romney campaign memo authored by strategist Alex Gage attempts to frame Romney's position in the national and state polls.
Gage touts Romney's accomplishments in the early states by writing that "as a result of our investment in advertising, grassroots organizing, and travel time, Gov. Romney has gone from an asterisk to competitive with the rest of the Republican field in Iowa and New Hampshire."
But he warns not to expect to see any lift in Romney's national numbers until after Iowa and New Hampshire:
As we move into the fall, our campaign will begin to expand to other early states - to South Carolina, Florida, and others. But it is important to remember that even then, we will not be measuring ourselves through the lens of national polls and we do not expect to be competitive in them. History shows us that candidates without nationwide name recognition do not become competitive in national primary polling until after they begin to ring up successes in the early states. Remember that John Kerry was hovering in single digits until he won the Iowa caucus. In just three weeks of January 2004, Kerry gained 40 points in nationwide Gallup polling. Looking at historical Gallup polls from previous election cycles, relatively-unknown candidates who succeed in the early states gain 16-40 points in national polls. (emphasis in the original)
Gage also downplays the idea that Romney has to win both Iowa and New Hampshire:
It is likely that Gov. Romney will continue to hover around 10% in national polls as he has for the past several months, and that he will gradually gain ground toward the end of the year as voters begin to pay more attention to the race. But we should not expect him to be competitive in national polls with better-known celebrity candidates like Giuliani, Thompson, or McCain until after Iowa and New Hampshire. By no means do we expect to win both Iowa and New Hampshire - no Republican in the modern era ever has.
Read the full text of the Gage memo below the jump.



