Saturday, September 1, 2007

The Uh-Oh Files: Marshawn Lynch

With just a few days until the opening kickoff of the 2007 NFL season, fantasy football owners have lots of reasons to be excited. However, they have just as many reasons to be jittery. Today we'll take a look at Buffalo Bills RB Marshawn Lynch and tell you why you should be nervous.

Lynch, the rookie out of Cal, is being taken in the third round of many drafts. In some he goes as high as the second. Many pundits have touted him as a Rookie-of-the-Year candidate. They love his combination of power and explosiveness. They love the fact that his only real competition in the Bills' backfield comes from Anthony Thomas.

Now that you bought into the hype (and we did, too, drafting him onto our Experts League team), and with the Bills' first game a mere 8 days away, it's time to start worrying. Lynch, going up against a rag-tag collection of second and third-string defenses, has been absolutely horrible this preseason, amassing a whopping 37 yards on 22 carries. That's a 1.7 YPC average.

There is hope that Lynch will be better in the regular season, but it's time to temper your expectations. A lot of us forgot that he plays for a probable last-place team whose home games from September 20 on are played in 3-4 feet of snow. Add to the mix that the Bills first five games are against run-stuffers Denver, Pittsburgh, New England, the Jets, and Dallas, and it's time to start smacking yourself.

So suck it up, stash Lynch on the bench for awhile, and plug in someone else at RB2 for a few weeks. Buffalo's schedule gets a little better after their Week 6 bye. Maybe Lynch will have some value then. Maybe. Or maybe you should trade him now to the guy that said "great pick" when you grabbed him at your draft.

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