Oil's most-recent minor decline - - there have been several during the past five years - - was short-circuited Friday, this time by the falling dollar and geopolitical events. (Oil rose $2.88 to $134.81 per barrel in Friday afternoon trading.)

Investors (and oil users, for that matter) may be asking: Is there anything in oil's chart that would have provided a clue to this latest and other abrupt ends to the brief pull-backs? Technical analysts believe there is.

Although they represent only one segment of the financial analysis / market analysis spectrum, technical analysts argue that certain indicators provide clues regarding price movement. And one long-term trend indicator is the moving average.

A tough average to break is the 50-day moving average: strong companies, or commodities, consistently remain above the 50-day moving average; weak ones, the reverse.

An even tougher average to break? The 200-day moving average. Given the typical time horizons for many traders, the 200-day moving average, or 200-day MA, is considered the toughest average to break.

The significance for oil? This week, oil's 200-day moving average rose above $100, to $100.67.

Oil: a strong chart, technically

What does it mean? From a review of oil's chart we see the strength - - or long-term bullish trend - - in oil: oil has, with a few breaches, basically remained above its 50-day MA for about a year and, even more telling, has not come close to falling below its 200-day MA. Further, oil's steady rise has pushed both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages up, with the 50-day MA currently is at $124.29 and the 200-day MA above the aforementioned $100 mark.

In other words, given the difficulty of breaking the 200-day MA and oil's high price, oil's trend is bullish, from a technical standpoint, and that oil's price rise is not a fleeting or flimsy phenomenon. Oil, from a technical standpoint has displayed price strength for long time. A breach of the 200 MA would have indicated weakness, but oil has not come close to it, recently. Further, given that oil is currently trading at $30 above its 200-MA, it would seem it would take an extraordinary series of events just to get the price of oil to drop close to its 200-MA, let alone break it: think about what would have to happen for oil to drop $30? A massive decline in global oil consumption. An announcement by several oil producers of millions of new barrels in increased production. Could either or both of these occur? Yes. Are they likely? No.

Oil Analysis: Technical analysis is telling us that oil's bullish trend is strong, and that it would take an extraordinary change in supply and/or demand to reverse it. Further, contrary to minor, daily data points that may suggest a reversal or the end of an oil 'bubble', the 200-day MA's duration is telling us that oil's price rise has not been a spur-of-the-moment, thinly-supported phenomenon, and its high level reflects the high value the market places on oil, given current supply / demand conditions. Major supply-altering and/or demand-altering events would have to occur just to get oil to drop to its 200-day MA, and that would place oil at $100 per barrel - - still a very high price, indeed.