Sometimes, the price of the top table is downright distasteful to a basketball club. Ambition doesn’t require excess. Increasingly in recent times, plenty of clubs are saying no thanks to the chance to join the financial arms race in European basketball.

In the second part of this series, we asked if European basketball could pay for itself. Now it’s time to examine clubs who willingly don’t want to pay that price. The greatest example in recent times is JL Bourg, declining qualification to Euroleague because of the risk involved.

The Eurocup champions are far from alone. Unicaja Malaga left the Euroleague system to join the Basketball Champions League (BCL) and have thrived. Alba Berlin and Joventut Badalona took similar approaches.

We’ve entered a new phase in spending where teams are willingly saying no to excess, whereas before they’d desperately keep going until risking calamity.

Let’s talk about Bourg

When JL Bourg won Eurocup this past spring, it was one of the most likeable stories in the sport. Here’s a club from a town of just 42,000 people with a gym that can only hold 3,548 people, winning their first major honour after 116 years in existence.

That victory earned them a spot in the Euroleague, if they wanted it. The club examined expanding its arena to meet the Euroleague minimum of 5,000 seats but there were other factors to consider. The biggest would have been the overall cost increase, both in salaries and in far more travel.

The club, sensibly, realised that it would be jeopardising over a century of tradition for one season at the top table. The growth of Bourg has been gradual and sustainable. It chose the smarter option and took a 3+2 deal at Eurocup instead.

Unicaja Malaga got comfortable

There isn’t a team in European basketball that indicates the upsides of fiscal sensibility quite like Unicaja Malaga. Since leaving Eurocup as part of Euroleague’s ecosystem for the BCL in 2021, the south of Spain club has thrived.

The club’s Eurocup triumph in 2017 had been its only trophy since winning the Spanish (ACB) championship in 2006. Upon making the jump and being able to refocus its budget, the club has won a pair of BCL crowns, 2 Copa del Rey titles, along with 2 Intercontinental cups and a Supercopa Espana.

Crucially, their domestic performance increased substantially. In the five seasons since the switch, Unicaja has secured home court in the playoffs thrice, compared to just two occasions in the decade prior. The operating cost reduction helped the club refocus its spending and strengthen the overall roster and marketing operations as a result.

Even Valencia makes a good point

A team that just rocked up to the most recent Euroleague Final Four with a billionaire backer might seem odd to include here. Yet the bearish approach of Juan Roig and his staff point to a different approach to dining at the top table. Valencia has spent a lot, most notably the €400 million on Roig Arena. It just isn’t pouring all that much into salaries.

Enric Carbonell, the club’s GM, flat out said “Valencia Basket, by its very nature, cannot engage in multi-million dollar bidding wars for all its players against teams with much larger budgets. That’s not our model.” The club still relies heavily on patronage from Roig and will likely have a bumpy on-court season in the year to come.

The key difference of course is that it is built to sustain a bad year or two on the floor while still generating substantially revenue through the arena. The capital investment is only going to grow as a revenue driver which should enable a more competitive direct basketball budget that is sustainable. As ever, controlling the arena is crucial.

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The warnings are obvious

We don’t have to go all that far back in history to see what can happen when teams spend beyond their means. Even those that make the cautious choice often have matters catch up with them if it’s not made in adequate time.

Gran Canaria’s downfall has shown that. Like JL Bourg, they turned down an invite to the Euroleague after winning the Eurocup in 2023. They had previously played a single and very expensive season in the top flight before the pandemic.

The move to the BCL however seemed a step too late. At least in the short and medium term. The club’s 30 year stay in the ACB ended in relegation with the budget being slashed for next season in the second tier, mainly to ensure it remains viable. The club has survived, thankfully, but plenty of others have gone to the wall due to reckless ambition.

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The right fit matters

There’s the old line about the way around half of all men believe they could land a jumbo jet in an emergency. Of course, that’s wrong in two ways. Anyone can land a plane, only a few can do so and walk away from it.

When Alba Berlin left the Euroleague for the BCL, the club explicitly cited economics as the driver. The club has a long record of criticising what it considered excess spending in Euroleague. Whether that’s fair is a much tougher question to ask. Where Alba is right is that it was the wrong kind of spending for them.

The club wants the best financial result to enable it to deliver something that its fans want to see on a regular basis. While Euroleague is alluring, it is also draining. The extra revenue coming in was surpassed by what was going out. At the BCL level, Alba is in much more control of its fiscal destiny.

Ambition needs a return

Valencia won the ACB last season, in addition to making the Euroleague Final Four. JL Bourg won Eurocup, Unicaja Malaga reached its fifth straight BCL Final Four, and Alba Berlin reclaimed the Bundesliga title after a three year break.

These clubs have found success on their terms without breaking the bank or taking on excess risk. The planned arrival of NBA Europe makes life interesting for clubs of this ilk given its planned blend of permanent franchises and qualifiers.

Of course, there is another approach that has become popular of late. In part 4 we’ll examine what happens when investors value the market itself over the existing club. That’s a trend built on ambition but with potential to truly damage fan culture.

This is Part 3 in our five part series. Check out Part 1 and Part 2 now

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The new format for the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup will offer some teams what looks to be a reprieve but others an extra layer of risk. Emmet Ryan on the new staggered knockout format and what it means

Last time out at the FIBA Women’s World Cup, only 12 teams took part but two thirds of these sides progressed straight from the group phase to the quarter finals. The new look format, bringing the number back up to 16 and the re-introduction of a round of 12 changes things up a bit.

There are more opportunities to stay alive through group play, with winning the group taking on added value. There is, of course, an element of gaming things out for the sides that end up in the second and third spots.

Winning the group has a real reward

The switch back to the format first introduced in 2014 has put real value on group play. Much like the Basketball Champions League, winning the group essentially rewards teams with skipping a knockout round.

In order to keep only nominally live games from being dead rubbers, this is huge. In the top two to the quarter final scenario, there’s far less at stake for a pair of 2-0 teams playing each other in the final round of group play.

In this scenario, the upside is enormous. With only the group winners going straight to the quarter finals, that automatically makes such instances take on a far greater value. It’s a simple tweak but a good one.

A big intercontinental clash

The clash of Belgium and Australia in group play is automatically a much bigger deal because of this format. Both will be expected to advance to the knockout phase and both could well be 2-0 entering it.

Furthermore, the group winners will be on the opposite side of the draw to the Group D winners for the rest of the competition. Given that’s likely to be the USA, avoiding them until the final is a huge plus.

Assuming the loser ends up in second spot, they would get a favorable qualification game. The chalk like however means that Spain and then USA would be their next likely opponents. Utter gauntlet stuff.

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The rest factor could be huge

All international tournaments feel like sprints but the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup takes that up a notch. The winners of Group A and Group B will have two full days off after the group phase. Their opponents will have played the prior day.

Every day off matters in these tournaments. Even at the men’s EuroBasket in 2025, the players spoke about how hard playing on consecutive days in the group phase was. At least then, players knew that splitting the results was acceptable by and large.

Instead, those going through the qualification round will have either a single day off or none between games. That’s a huge ask when they will inevitably be going up against a side that is both in form and better rested.

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Little room for error

For those that don’t recall, the 2022 FIBA Women’s World Cup followed the old Olympic format. There were two groups of six with the top four in each progressing to the quarter final round.

That meant five games with room to drop a couple while still being able to stay in contention. Now, one upset can change who gets the bye to the quarter finals and the jockeying for position only gets more intense.

In short, contenders can’t just work their way into the tournament and find their feet. It’s a dash from the off and every poor performance, even in group play, has big consequences. That’s a serious dynamic shift and one that should provide entertainment in Berlin.

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It’s a simple question. Can European basketball actually pay for itself? There’s more revenue but spending has risen too. A sport being richer doesn’t always mean it is healthier.

The financial cocktail that makes up any sporting entity in Europe is intriguing. When it’s a sport other than football, you can often add football money as part of the recipe. How much money is generated directly from basketball, through the largesse of owners/investors, public funding, and, the scary bit, debt matters.

Two European basketball clubs are capable of having identical budgets but wildly different states of fiscal health. That makes for some frustratingly inconsistent accounting, especially when some clubs exist as outright entities and others are technically departments.

That makes the interesting numbers to observe not so much the overall spent but, rather, how much of that basketball can pay for on its own.

So, what is sustainability?

I’ve been cautiously bullish on the overall sustainability of European basketball in recent times. To be more cold-hearted, the key question to ask in the short term is do basketball operations in Europe actually make money?

This should include all revenues, especially arena control as that has been sorely underrated by sports entities across Europe for decades. Smart spending is important here. Zalgiris is a great example here. It spent more than its expected earnings last season but had factored in the cost with prior accumulated profits.

That is remarkably different from hoping an owner meets a shortfall. Reinvesting existing revenue is a good thing. The most basic goal, and most vital to clear, is to be able to show that the basketball operation can be reasonably financed without continual need of rescue from its backers.

The football club model is a mix

No two clubs are not like each other should be a recurring theme in this. Take FC Bayern Basketball. By hoops standards, at least at the top level, they’re very young yet is already profitable and has real liquidity in its accounts https://fcbayern.com/en/news/2025/11/fc-bayern-munchen-ev-vice-presidents-reports-at-the-agm. The blend of BMW Park and SAP Garden has worked for them, with the sellouts the norm.

Then we look to Spain, where FC Barcelona and Real Madrid are both far from self-sustaining. They, of course, have enormous football clubs behind them and decades of history of being backed by said club.

The relative youth of FC Bayern as a serious basketball operation is a key difference here. The broader FC Bayern operation started this with a plan to be self-sustaining. It knew that it would need support early but it has successfully been able to wean it off in a reasonably short time.

Zalgiris is a strong model to follow

The club is the parent of a multi-sport model, as opposed to say FC Bayern or Real Madrid where they are clearly not the top department. Furthermore, it provides more transparency over its finances than most.

The 2024/2025 season saw it exceed expected income by €2.1 million through a mix of profits on player sales and a big bump in ticket & other fan-related revenues. While the former is prone to wild variability, the latter can be sustained and built. While Lithuania is rare in its basketball mania, there was no shortage of factors working against the club.

The 300,000 population of Kaunas is on the smaller end of mid-sized. Furthermore, Lithuania only ranks 18th of 27 EU states on Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) and only 7th of 10 when in GDP per capita it comes to all nations with Euroleague sides. If Zalgiris can succeed with these challenges, then it’s possible for others in more affluent but less basketball mad markets to do so.

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Fenerbahce switching up the scale

Fenerbahce have one big advantage on Zalgiris, namely the size of potential fanbase. That partially negates the challenges of Türkiye being 9th of 10 nations with Euroleague clubs on GDP per capita.

The club has been quite open in recent years about its financial state. The Euroleague title winning season of 2025 came with losses of between €4 million and €5 million. The goal for the season just gone was to break even, which would have been a first ever for the department. All soundings at the time of publication indicated this had been achieved.

Much of that success has been built on smarter marketing. Even Yellow, the mascot, has proven an effective driver of revenue through tie-ins. A club like Fenerbahce is a really positive indicator. Finding ways for departments other than football to stand on their own two feet is vital for multi-sport clubs.

Greece shows revenue alone isn’t enough

The increased revenue of Panathinaikos, fuelling its spending surge, has been the talk of Euroleague the past few seasons. While results for the season just gone aren’t in, turnover jumped from just under €32 million in the 2023/24 season to just over €42 million in the 2025/26 season. These seasons came with losses of around 43 million and €2.5 million each.

Part of that growth is down to the 49 year right to fully manage the OAKA, which provides a real long-term revenue driver to the club. The more this is exploited, along with other revenue models being expanded, the more positive the outlook. Similarly, Olympiacos saw its revenue go from €18.2 million in revenue in the 2023/24 season to the €25.5 million a year later.

That, of course, came with far more significant losses than Panathinaikos, with losses rising from €5.8 million to €16.6 million year on year. Crucially, the Reds now also have a 49 year lease on the SEF. That increased revenue source should prove enormous in narrowing the gap on the balance sheet. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, arenas should be capital assets not regular expenses.

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No one-size fits all

Homogeneity is as boring in basketball business as it is on the court. There are many ways of succeeding but finding what works involve understanding the asset and what it needs to do in order to deliver. FC Bayern have been built from a multi-sport brand, Zalgiris maximise a basketball made local market, while Fenerbahce have converted the scale of their brand into greater revenue.

The arena control held by the Greek giants is a big step forward but is far from the last one either will make. Innovation in revenue generation is vital towards maintaining sustainability. The good news is that European basketball clubs are getting better at making money. Of course, not everyone is taking such an aggressive approach.

In part three, we’ll examine the approaches of JL Bourg, Unicaja Malaga, Valencia BC, and others. These are clubs that are explicitly avoiding the spending race while still succeeding on their own terms.

This is part 2 of a 5 part series. Read part 1 here.

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If the USA somehow doesn’t win gold at the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup, it will be an all-time shocker in sports. The race to be the clear number two nation in women’s basketball is proving increasingly tasty all the same. Emmet Ryan on the battle to stand above the crowd.

The consensus betting for the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup has the USA as 1/4 favourites to win it all. Looking at the absolutely loaded roster and the fact that they haven’t lost a competitive game with a pro roster since 2006, it’s safe to say it would be an extraordinary shock if they don’t hoist the trophy in Berlin on 13 September.

That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to play for. The battle to be the second best team in the women’s game has grown in ferocity in recent years. The collective competition is helping to push other national sides closer to one day ending the wild run the USA is enjoying.

Even the rankings find it tough

The relatively small sample that international rankings work off being taken as read, it’s interesting to note just how tight the battle for second spot is right now according to FIBA. The USA, unsurprisingly hold a huge lead with their 719.1 points being 122.5 clear of France in second place.

Just 22.2 points separate second placed France and sixth placed Spain, while third place Australia are just 0.2 of a point behind France in third. You have to go all the way down to Serbia in 12th before the gap between first and second is matched or beaten.

While rankings can’t be taken as gospel, they certainly help to paint a picture before Berlin. There is room for an enormous amount of movement towards the top of the rankings as the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup shakes out.

The cases vary

France, who currently hold second place can claim to have come closer than anyone in recent years to knocking off the USA. The 2024 Olympic final went to the wire, with the USA only retaining gold 67-66.

Yet they lost the EuroBasket Women 2025 semi final to Spain, who would go on to lose the final to Belgium. Italy also got the win over the French in the bronze medal game and then over Spain in qualification for this tournament. Belgium have the body of work, with sustained success, including the last two EuroBasket Women titles, but they lost the bronze medal game in Paris to Australia.

Then there’s the sheer consistency of Spain, silver medalists to Belgium at the last two EuroBasket Women events but also holding that win over France. Throw in Germany improving rapidly, although being hampered by injury woes at present, and Europe alone is interesting.

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It’s not just Europe

Australia, China, Japan and Nigeria are all bringing a lot to the table in Berlin. Australia and China have won each of the last two FIBA Women’s Asia Cup tournaments, with Japan taking silver on both occasions. Outside of Europe, there really isn’t a deeper federation right now and all three will expect to compete for medals.

Japan also owns arguably the best result against a side not to qualify for this tournament. Their victory in 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup qualifying over Canada knocked the seventh best team in the world, per the rankings, out of the tournament entirely.

As for Nigeria, they look on paper to be capable of making a lot of noise in Berlin. Despite a poor outing against South Korea in qualifying, they gave big frights to both France and Germany in the same tournament. Having not lost an AfroBasket Women game in 11 years, D’Tigress will arrive at this competition with confidence.

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Plenty of head to heads to sort it

While pairings involving the big guns are natural at major tournaments in the knockout stages, there are some big clashes locked in for the early rounds. Belgium battles Australia in Group C, Spain will face Germany in Group A, China get an early crack at the USA in Group D, while France will face Nigeria in Group B.

While the USA will be expected to post a perfect 6-0 to win it all, the drama in Berlin goes beyond the gold medal. The deeper the top end of the sport gets, the greater it will fester competition in the urge to be the ones to knock the USA off its perch.

That’s the concrete opportunity at the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup. If the USA gets shocked, that would be phenomenal but terribly unlikely. How those below them battle and fight, with tooth and claw as we say in Europe, will shape the race to eventually match or surpass them.

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A fool and their money is easily parted. European basketball has never lacked rich owners willing to splash out for no return. What’s different about now is that more and more owners see basketball as an investment with real revenue potential. The first edition of the Sunday column after our summer break sees Emmet Ryan kick off a new five part series on the European basketball money race.

There’s a whole lot happening right now in European basketball. Spending has absolutely skyrocketed in recent years at the top of the sport. More investors are backing more clubs in an effort to be part of the elite.

Is it all FOMO or is there real investment logic behind this? Between Euroleague expansion and the move towards franchises, the NBA Europe project, and big investors coming in, there’s a lot to address.

Money has always talked in sports. It’s just more visible in European basketball than ever before. The patrons are being replaced by private equity but the core goal is still the same, to benefit from owning a basketball team.

Suddenly €30 million doesn’t sound enormous

That was the top prize in Friday’s Euromillions draw. A few years ago, it would have been seen as outlandish spending for a European basketball club of any size in a single season. The losses that would be needed to be absorbed would have been simply too much.

Now, it’s just what you spend to have a chance of hanging around the top table. Contracts like the €12.6 million over three years to Guerschon Yabusele or the release fee of €1 million Dubai paid FC Barcelona to get Toko Shengelia don’t really surprise anyone.

Salary inflation is comfortably outpacing actual inflation (unlike for the rest of us I hear you say) at the top of the sport. It’s not that Europe suddenly discovered some rich owners, it’s that investors genuinely believe they can make a real return on investment.

Yes, there actually is more money

The revenue increase at Euroleague level clubs alone proves telling. The average revenue at clubs for 2026/27 is up 14 per cent to €22.3 million. while club market values have risen by 40 per cent over the last three years. This has been driven by 85 per cent growth in gameday revenue and 30 per cent growth in commercial revenue.

That provides some economic rationality to the spending increase, particularly as there appears to be a lot of room for further commercial growth. Live sport, both in person and viewing on broadcast, holds a comparative value to other forms of entertainment greater than it has ever held previously. There is no realistic medium term scenario where that changes.

That being said, the increase in spending is still outpacing the revenue increase on average. By definition, that’s not sustainable if clubs are expected to be investments rather than trinkets for owners. Payroll increases however are notably closer to being in line on a growth trajectory to overall revenue increases. That would indicate more of the apparent excess spending is investing in areas that can deliver returns in the future.

Victory is no longer everything

Although it always helps. The old calculation of spend €X million and hopefully win Euroleague doesn’t quite hold anymore. It’s getting more expensive to win big in European basketball, including down the levels, but the money isn’t merely being thrown down the sink anymore.

JB Capital’s report estimated that the introduction of the franchise system could increase combined member value by 25 per cent to more than €4.3 billion. That was before the expansion to 24 teams was forecast as well. While that won’t mean owners will suddenly have hundreds of millions each in available cash, with these types of assets they often tend to act like that is the case.

More sensibly, it changes the incentive structure. Now, losing say €5 million in a season can make sense if it helps the overall receipt of increasing value to the underlying asset (the club). If that sounds risky to you, congratulations and welcome to the eek part of sports financing.

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The FOMO factor

All of the spending, particularly on marketing and promotion, has generated one key desired effect. There are more people seeking to invest in the sport. A governing body’s core purpose is to administer the game. Its second is to bring in more money to help grow it. Whether it’s FIBA, the NBA, or Euroleague, that’s the way it goes.

The rush is already producing extraordinary movements in markets like Rome, which we’ll return to later in this series. Existing Euroleague shareholders have already discussed raising €1.5 billion for strategic growth while another €1 billion in total outlay is being considered for arena development and modernisation.

Franchise fees will certainly play a part in that for the Euroleague, with no fixed price and different market factors likely to impact cost. This is a long-winded way of saying any other teams in the Gulf states will likely pay more than anyone else.

NBA Europe has already changed things

For a league that has no teams yet, NBA Europe has proven remarkably influential. With the league still targeting an October 2027 launch, there’s already interest in claiming one of the 12 permanent franchise spots. Mark Tatum has said that bids were in the region of $500 million to $1 billion.

Granted, it’s in his interest to hype it up. It still indicates that FIBA and the NBA are confident it will attract big money. It’s also in everyone’s interests to try and look like the more lucrative offering. The result is that Euroleague and NBA Europe in turn are feeding a machine that encourages more potential investment.

It’s clearly already influencing some of the upturn in spending at the Euroleague level. The efforts by the likes of AEK and Galatasaray at the Basketball Champions League level to gain access shows they recognise a potentially lucrative opportunity.

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Now the brakes are off

Euroleague was expected to introduce extra layers to its competitive balance standards, essentially efforts to curb excess salary spending by redistributing penalties. It’s a really complicated luxury tax.

Anyway, the extra layer that was going to include the top three salaries in the accounting of this now won’t be applied. This was an upper brake and without its abolition, the fanciful story of Panathinaikos trying to sign Nikola Jokic likely wouldn’t have happened.

A total of €5.4 million has been redistributed since the I can’t believe it’s not a luxury tax was introduced. This would have either skyrocketed under the new format or, as was probably hoped, curbed the pace of increased spending.

Money has flavours

Considering the popularity of basketball across the continent, it’s wild to see how justified observers of the sport have been for decades in pointing out that it doesn’t make enough money.

The real question now is whether spending is rising based on real value, FOMO, reasoned speculation, vanity, or a combination of all of these. We’ve already seen teams fail to realise the value they expected. Asvel entered the summer talking about a €59 million budget. Now they’ll do well not to fall below the minimum salary threshold in Euroleague again.

The sport as a whole in Europe definitely is richer than before. Over the next four parts of this series, I’ll examine how many of its clubs actually are richer and how sustainable this is going forward.

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Euroleague expansion is imminent but that also means major changes are coming. A conference split and a season overhaul is only the beginning. Emmet Ryan on how, as ever, it’s about growing revenue and not making a mess of it.

Christos Stavropoulos seems to have confirmed what everyone is thinking. The Olimpia Milano GM told the Greek Basketball Federation’s own radio show that Euroleague expansion to 24 teams is likely just one season away.

This will mean a conference split, with a decrease in games per team but a slight increase in the total in the season available to broadcasters. With revenues up 12 per cent last season, Euroleague is after more money.

Expansion means entry fees, wider audience reach, and potentially more revenue streams. It also comes with an awful lot of work and no small amount of risk involved. It has been a full decade since the Euroleague last had 24 teams. The plan this time promises to be radically different to that format.

The practical split issue

Geography is an issue. How do you split it? East/West and the East is deeper, substantially, in strength and fiscal might. Go with North/South and it’s the same issue. While commercially and logistically attractive, there are obvious competitive balance issues.

Pots based on some sort of competitive balance, possibly coefficient base, could work but carry the downside of splitting up rivals and reducing the number of high profile meetings. A hybrid seems the most sensible solution.

Everyone has a partner club so key rivalries are maintained while there is still some form of competitive balance worked in. Given that non geographic conference names are always awful, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the conferences received sponsor titles. Yes, that is also awful but very plausible.

A neatly managed format

While geography is an issue, administration of the regular season isn’t. With 24 teams that’s 12 clubs in each conference. Simply have all conference opponents meet each other home and away while playing non-conference opponents once.

This would however mean giving up 2 home games per season so that is a revenue loss. Still, there is some value in scarcity as opponents that visit only once every two years will naturally hold special interest.
The travel reduction isn’t enormous, assuming it’s not a purely geographic split, but there is capacity to have fewer double round weeks as a result. This will depend in part on the post-season format. Let’s get to that.

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Expanding the post-season?

At present 40 per cent of Euroleague clubs take part in the playoffs proper while that goes up to 50 per cent when the play-ins are included. Keeping the current playoff structure would drop those numbers to 33 per cent and 42 per cent.

Any format should have cross-conference pairings come the full playoff stage. That’s just to avoid excess repeat pairings lowering viewer interest. Staying as-is with 10, the logical format would be to have the top three in each conference go to the playoffs, with fourth in each going to the play-in along with the next best two teams irrespective of conference so there’s some cross-conference drama.

Alternatively have 4th through 7th in each conference play for the last playoff spots. This expands the field to 14. To stay at 50 per cent there could be byes to the quarters for just the top two in each conference, with reduced first round series (best of three) for teams from 3rd to 6th in each conference. The worst would be a full 16 team playoff. Let’s not do that.

Expansion risks dilution

We finally get to the biggest problem. The league would be growing by 20 per cent in member numbers with an additional four teams. Given the challenges some of the sides towards the bottom of the current field have competing financially, that’s a big ask.

The move towards permanent franchises will ease some of the burden. Still there are minimum thresholds that will need to be met in order to feel comfortable with expansion not meaning bloating.

Revenue growth for the overall product is vital here. Fenerbahce and Panathinaikos, for example, have each done well as individual clubs in growing direct revenue but league wide revenue and distribution must outpace that to prevent the fiscal gulf between top and bottom widening.

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Who gets in?

We’re going to assume that the 20 teams on the board to start the coming season all stay involved. Given Asvel’s issues, that’s generous, but it’s just neater. That leaves four open spots and no shortage of suitors.

Hapoel Jerusalem really wants in but Euroleague hasn’t rushed to embrace it prior to now. The more obvious cities right now are London and Rome. The former would pose ownership questions due to the links to Zalgiris while the latter has a serious thirst from a few entities. There’s always a desire to go back to Berlin but Alba are prudent for a reason and a new club can’t just draw a fanbase by clicking its fingers.

Then there’s the likes of PAOK, who are spending big, and getting a Greek market outside of Athens with a strong support base isn’t a bad idea in terms of reach. A second club in the Gulf states actually appearing out of nowhere can’t be ruled out. This is a money play after all. All this and I haven’t even mentioned NBA Europe yet. That’s one for another day.

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FIBA has a chance to do, in the space of just 10 days, something that both WNBA and Nike have failed to do. The 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup of basketball presents the opportunity to actually convert the scale of the marketing phenomenon that is Caitlin Clark.

Resources matter. At least they should. Really the scale of resources ought to matter. FIBA has, for example, far greater resources than BallinEurope. That’s somewhat reassuring when you think about it. Yet it pales in comparison to both the WNBA and, especially, Nike.

Yet FIBA has a real opportunity in Berlin to more than punch above its weight in September. For context, Nike spent an absurd $4.75 billion on demand creation (essentially marketing and promotion) in its most recent fiscal year.

The WNBA doesn’t spend at that level but still has far greater resources than FIBA. Yet it’s plucky old FIBA that might finally make a good go of capitalising on the opportunity that Caitlin Clark presents.

Money on the table

The WNBA and Nike each knew the opportunity that Caitlin Clark presented upon turning pro. Yet they wildly failed to anticipate demand for Clark merch in her rookie season, despite the breadth of indicators telling them to stock up more.

Within the WNBA, there’s an institutional urge, naturally, to promote all of its stars. Yet it fails to see how building up Clark can be a tool to aid in boosting those other players. This is marketing 101. The audience wanted Clark, if you want them to want the rest build it around what they want. FIBA gets this and is smartly scheduling USA games at the FIBA Women’s World Cup to build on it.

Yet, honestly, Nike deserves greater criticism. Despite Nike winning the bidding war in 2024, she wasn’t revealed as a signature athlete until August of last year. The wait for her first signature shoe is still ongoing, although we’ll get back to that. If ever there was an athlete you rush to get it done with, it’s Clark.

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FIBA has something the others don’t

That would be a clean slate. The few glimpses of Caitlin Clark in international duty so far have been promoted well. The showpiece event fully under FIBA’s control (so not the Olympics) is a real chance to boost the women’s game as a whole.

You are going to see lots of Clark at the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup and, despite comparatively scant resources, FIBA will make sure of it. The governing body wants casual viewers for its events and it knows that Clark will bring them.

In turn, those alongside and against her will benefit. People tuning in for Clark will see what Veronika Vorackova (Czechia), Cecelia Zandalasis (Italy), and Han Xu (China) have to offer in the group phase. Then there’s the possibility of more people getting to know Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Marine Johannes (France), Megan Gustafson (Spain), Mai Yamamoto (Japan), or Frieda Buhner (Germany).

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Signs are already promising

Germany, Berlin in particular, is the ideal spot for this tournament. Basketball membership is booming and, while the men’s team has won the big titles in the full form basketball, the women’s 3×3 team won gold in Paris. The game as a whole is visibly growing. Added to this is the phenomenal culture of strong attendances in Germany across sports, largely down to smart community marketing and engagement.

Ticket sales have exceeded 160,000 already, with most of those going before Caitlin Clark was officially confirmed to make the roster. FIBA understands the opportunity it has at the 2026 FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup. When it posted a video of Clark highlights from qualifiers, it got more than 10 times the normal viewership of Team USA highlights.

Caitlin Clark is the reach, Berlin is providing the market hungry to watch the tournament. FIBA can win simply by getting the basics right that the WNBA and Nike have failed to do. This is a festival of women’s basketball and FIBA can use Clark as a beacon to draw in more eyeballs.

About that shoe

The final of the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup is on 13 September. I mention this because that is 18 days before the Caitlin 1 finally drops. That will, assuming the USA retains the title (they haven’t lost a game in the tournament since 2006), that FIBA will get a chance for another big push after the tournament.

The timing may be serendipitous but we’ve seen how, even with the table set, that both the WNBA and Nike have failed to make the most of the opportunity Clark presents. FIBA’s smaller resources means it can simplify the plan and get the basics right.

That’s really all this needs. Lots of basketball business and sports marketing is complicated. This isn’t. You’ve got a star, you’ve got a goal, and you can build off that star to achieve it. If only there was a catchy slogan to tell FIBA what they just need to do.

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Great Britain’s men’s basketball team is in somewhat unfamiliar territory. They’re entering a qualification phase where they are expected to win. The thing is, they also need wins more than usual. Emmet Ryan on why a strengthened Team GB needs to hone everything now.

Welcome, Great Britain, to my world. The pre-qualifiers, be they for EuroBasket or the World Cup cycle, are quite familiar to Irish readers of this site. It’s where Ireland’s men have played all of their qualifiers since returning to the international fold.

For Marc Steutel’s charges, this is new territory. It’s a scenario where they should be favoured but one they can’t take lightly.

How did they even get here?

It has been an interesting 12 months for British basketball. That’s the gentle version. Amidst all the turmoil at a federation level, the men’s national team managed to get its first win since 2013 at EuroBasket. Their victory in the final group game over Montenegro was followed up with that stunning case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Lithuania.

Fate however was still in their hands thanks to a win over Iceland. That road win should have set them up nicely to avoid a drop into battling with the also-rans of European basketball.

Instead, Iceland pulled off a win last month to change everything. That was Iceland’s third win in six games. More importantly, it meant they finished 3-3 instead of 2-4. Had Great Britain swept the series, they’d have matched Iceland’s record and finished above them on head to head. So, here they are.

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What happens now?

Great Britain have landed in the second round of pre-qualifiers. They are joined by 7 other teams that dropped down from World Cup qualifying plus the three group winners and best runner up from the first round of pre-qualifying.

Their three team group also has Switzerland, winless in World Cup qualifying, and Slovakia, who won Group C of the first round by going 4-0 over Kosovo and Albania. The group winner advances automatically to the main phase of qualifying for EuroBasket 2029.

If they don’t win the group, then they have to go through a third round of pre-qualifying. That sees all the non-group winners from the second round join all the teams eliminated from the first round, play in 4 groups of 3 or 4 teams with only the winners making the main draw.

Is their cause for hope?

Oddly, yes. The bad news is that Great Britain are guaranteed to be a bottom seed in the main draw should they make it. That was locked in the moment they lost to Iceland. The good news is that Tosun Evbuomwan is in the squad for these qualifiers along with Amari Williams.

The existing roster should have been enough to win the group as it was. These additions should, so long as they don’t get careless, put it beyond doubt. Both are big additions but Williams is arriving at a vital time as Gabe Olaseni has retired from international play. There needs to be a clear man in the middle and there’s an opportunity here for Williams.

Crucially, Quinn Ellis has been named in the roster. He missed the July games, having been named in it, but him working with the extra pieces promises to be the core combo for the side going forward. If he shows up, these games will be more than worth watching.

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It was meant to be the greatest experiment in the Europe to NCAA basketball pipeline yet. It might yet still work out as such. Yet, with just 84 days until their first game of the season, the LSU Tigers have yet to register any of their big signings from the continent. Emmet Ryan on the ongoing drama and what might come next.

In May, it looked like LSU had put together some whopper deals. The money being discussed in NIL value for the likes of Saliou Niang and Yam Madar was outrageous. Yet now, with their NCAA basketball season just 84 days away, Will Wade’s charges are few in number.

As of today, the Tigers have exactly four players registered. None of these are from the ranks of the big Euro signings that were expected. There’s no Niang, for now, there definitely won’t be Madar, and the status of Brice Dessert, Marcio Santos, and Michael Ruzic remains uncertain.

Will Wade tests the limit

Will Wade is certainly a figure that gets discussed, to put it mildly. When his return to LSU was announced in March, he quickly set to work putting the school’s NIL war chest to use. European prospects that previously eschewed the NCAA in the pre-NIL era were happy to consider his offers.

At the younger end there’s Michael Ruzic, only 19 but already an established pro with Joventut Badalona in Spain’s ACB and the Basketball Champions League (BCL). That was a good start but Wade was hungry for proven talent. The deep pockets in Baton Rouge went big. From Italy, he sourced Saliou Niang, 22, is a five year pro most recently with Virtus Bologna of Euroleague.

Then there’s Marcio Santos. At 23, he has been a pro since 2018 and most recently played for Maccabi Tel Aviv in Euroleague. Santos has already won the BCL Americas along with 3 Brazilian championships with Franca. Added to this was Brice Dessert, another five year pro most recently with Anadolu Efes of Euroleague. This was a serious set of signings.

And the other guy

Older than all of these and easily the most surprising was, of course, Yam Madar. At 25, Madar is already long-established at the Euroleague level. He’s been pro since 2018 and won titles with Fenerbahce, Partizan, and Hapoel Tel Aviv.

He was drafted all the way back in 2020 by the Boston Celtics. Remarkably, given how casually draft rights get traded in the NBA near the deadline, the Celtics still hold Madar’s draft rights.

The delays and hold-ups along with big questions over whether the NCAA would really stand for it meant the deal never closed. Madar has instead signed with Maccabi Tel Aviv, the same club as Santos, on a three year deal.

What even is a college player?

The arrival of NIL was the obvious big change for college sports. When NCAA basketball, and other sports, teams realised it could be used to lure Europeans the change was arguably as big. The House vs NCAA settlement allowed schools to pay players directly. That still creates a legal grey zone with regards the F1 visa these players would be on but it was enough of an opening to make the offers.

The age based model the NCAA has brought in is supposed to curb it so that the players coming over are closer to Michael Ruzic than Yam Madar in age. The latter part will be of some relief to European clubs.

At the top end of European basketball, young guys rarely get minutes. Euroleague clubs expect players to have established themselves before making it to that level. There are exceptions but they have become shockingly rare in recent seasons.

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Where does that leave LSU?

Somewhat understandably, LSU Tigers fans aren’t exactly thrilled at the level of uncertainty that remains heading into the current season. On a case by case basis however it looks promising for all four of the Europe to Baton Rouge signees will be able to suit up.

Marcio Santos should be fine given the definition of the age calculation erring in his favour. There have been reports that Brice Dessert actually has clearance already. Saliou Niang is the odd one as he was drafted in 2025 by the Cleveland Cavaliers. Yet having never signed a NBA contract, he should still be able to clear NCAA hurdles. The rule about draft declaration removing eligibility only impacts the 2026 NBA draft onwards.

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Yam Madar might be the biggest green flag

That Yam Madar opted to not stick with the process and instead sign for Maccabi is quite telling. He clearly had sufficient indicators that he wasn’t going to get clearance and made a call.

None of the other four have indicated a plan to stay in Europe as of yet. Indeed Niang has reaffirmed his plans to play college hoops in the coming season. Of course, as long as they aren’t registered then there’s always the chance someone else swoops in for any of the four.

Whatever the case, the wait is less than ideal for the LSU Tigers. Fortunately, this era of NCAA basketball is beneficial to big conferences. With the non-conference slate first, there’s ample time for LSU to integrate all of these players should they get the expected clearance.

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The NBA offseason often provides the first meaningful clues about how the championship race could unfold. Blockbuster trades, free-agent signings, and roster adjustments reshape expectations long before the opening tip, prompting analysts and sportsbooks alike to reassess which teams are best positioned for a title run.

While early odds are never guarantees, they reflect how the league has changed during the summer. Looking at this year’s biggest moves helps explain why certain teams have climbed the board, why others have slipped, and what bettors should consider before placing early futures wagers.
Why Summer Moves Have Such a Big Impact on NBA Odds

NBA championship odds rarely remain static once the offseason begins. Every major transaction forces sportsbooks to reassess a team’s projected strength, balancing new talent against chemistry, depth, coaching, and the challenges of an 82-game season. As a result, futures markets often change within hours of significant news.

Star acquisitions naturally attract the most attention because elite players can dramatically alter a team’s championship outlook. However, sportsbooks also evaluate how well new players complement existing rosters. A talented roster that lacks balance or defensive depth may not improve as much as casual fans expect, while a smaller move that fills an obvious weakness can significantly increase a team’s long-term potential.

Player departures also influence the market. Losing an All-Star or several key role players can weaken depth, reduce lineup flexibility, and create uncertainty about how quickly replacements will adapt. Even coaching changes or shifts in salary-cap flexibility can influence expectations, especially when they affect a team’s ability to make additional moves later in the season.

For bettors, understanding why odds move is just as important as knowing that they have changed. The strongest futures bets are often built on evaluating roster construction and long-term sustainability rather than reacting to headlines alone.

The Biggest Offseason Moves Shaping the Championship Picture

This offseason has delivered several blockbuster transactions that immediately changed the league’s competitive balance. Some contenders strengthened existing championship cores, while others made aggressive moves designed to accelerate their pursuit of a title.

Philadelphia generated perhaps the biggest headlines by adding LeBron James while also acquiring Jaylen Brown. Combining two accomplished veterans with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey creates one of the league’s most talented lineups on paper, explaining why the 76ers have quickly climbed among the Eastern Conference favorites. The pressure will now be on the coaching staff to maximize the roster’s depth and establish chemistry before the playoffs.

Other franchises also reshaped expectations through bold decisions. Miami’s acquisition of Giannis Antetokounmpo dramatically elevated its championship outlook, while Boston responded to losing Brown by bringing in Paul George to remain competitive. Minnesota paired LaMelo Ball with Anthony Edwards, creating one of the NBA’s most intriguing young backcourts.

Several additional moves could also have meaningful long-term implications. Portland’s acquisition of Ja Morant changes the direction of its rebuild. Toronto reunited with Kawhi Leonard in one of the offseason’s biggest surprises, and the Lakers strengthened their frontcourt by trading for Walker Kessler while adding Kevon Looney in free agency.

Not every move will produce immediate success, but together they have significantly altered the league’s competitive landscape. Those changes explain why championship futures have already shifted well before preseason games begin, giving fans and bettors plenty to evaluate before opening night.

Which Teams Look Strongest After the Summer?

While several franchises improved this offseason, a few teams continue to separate themselves from the rest of the league. San Antonio remains among the leading championship favorites after building around Victor Wembanyama, whose continued development gives the Spurs one of the NBA’s highest ceilings.

Oklahoma City also enters the season with tremendous momentum. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues leading one of basketball’s deepest young rosters, and the Thunder’s combination of continuity, depth, and elite talent makes them legitimate contenders once again.

In the Eastern Conference, the defending champion New York Knicks remain firmly in the conversation thanks to their experienced core and proven ability to succeed during the playoffs. Philadelphia has also emerged as one of the biggest challengers following its aggressive offseason additions, giving the conference another legitimate title contender.

The gap between these contenders isn’t determined by reputation alone. Championship futures continue evolving throughout the offseason, and following those markets on FanDuel Sportsbook offers another way to see how sportsbooks weigh blockbuster trades, returning cores, and roster continuity before opening night.

Seeing Beyond the Headlines Before Betting Early NBA Futures

Big offseason moves naturally create excitement, but successful futures betting requires looking beyond star power alone. Building chemistry takes time, and even talented rosters may need months before consistently performing at a championship level.

Injuries also remain one of the biggest variables. A team that appears dominant in July can face a very different outlook by midseason if key players miss extended stretches. Coaching adjustments, player development, and unexpected breakout performances can all reshape the championship picture as the season progresses.

Early odds should therefore be viewed as a starting point rather than a final prediction. Markets will continue responding to preseason performances, roster changes, and regular-season results as sportsbooks gather more information about each contender. Monitoring those developments throughout the season often provides a clearer picture than reacting to a single headline or transaction.

Many bettors also review NBA stats and analysis before committing to long-term futures, using advanced metrics, player trends, team performance data, and matchup trends to determine whether early championship prices still offer value and where meaningful market opportunities may emerge.

Looking Ahead to the 2026–27 NBA Season

The 2026 offseason has already transformed the NBA landscape. Major trades, high-profile signings, and returning championship contenders have combined to create one of the league’s most intriguing title races in recent years, with sportsbooks adjusting expectations as each move reshapes the competitive picture.

As preseason approaches and the regular season begins, those expectations will continue evolving. Teams must still prove they can translate offseason optimism into consistent success, making patience and careful evaluation just as important as following the latest headlines.
Content reflects information available as of 01/08/26; subject to change.

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