ALL CRIME TYPES ACROSS CAPITOL HILL, CD, AND FIRST HILL, 2026 AND 2021

From the Seattle Times report on downtown crime displacement

A recent Seattle Times investigation revealed a painful truth in Seattle’s public safety recovery. While aggressive revitalization and targeted enforcement pushed reported offenses in the downtown core down nearly 50% between 2018 and 2025, crime appeared to displace eastward into neighborhoods including Capitol Hill like a “water bed.”

The Times shows that Capitol Hill absorbed the city’s steepest offense spike, while First Hill also climbed. But fresh 2026 data from the Seattle Police Department’s Records Management System illustrates a divergence for the East Precinct with five-year totals showing cooling even as 2026 monthly trends point to a volatile reset under new leadership at the department and City Hall.

In its analysis of Seattle Police Department neighborhood-level data from 2018 through 2025, the Times identified Capitol Hill as the primary recipient of apparent crime displacement radiating outward from increased public safety efforts in downtown Seattle.

While targeted enforcement and public investments drove reported offenses down by nearly 50% in the downtown core, the Times shows Capitol Hill recorded the largest increase in criminal offenses of any neighborhood in the city, adding 780 violent and property crimes over that stretch. By 2025, the neighborhood surpassed downtown to record the highest raw volume of both violent and property offenses in Seattle.

The report shows that these neighborhood-wide increases were not distributed evenly, often clustering in pockets. An SPD analysis cited by the Times showed that from 2024 to 2025, the surge in offenses on Capitol Hill was heavily concentrated within a one-kilometer square area bordering I-5 rather than only along Broadway or Pike/Pine.

The Times also talked with computational social scientist and Capitol Hill Community Council vice chair Curtis Atkisson about how post-pandemic shifts in where people live, work, and spend time altered neighborhood dynamics and fostered patterns consistent with displacement.

CHS looked at the most recent numbers available via the SPD Crime Dashboard.

Comparing 2021 to 2026, the shift out of downtown may be lightening. Overall crime across Capitol Hill, the Central District, and First Hill dropped substantially in the period, driven by broad declines in property crime.

The Central District experienced the sharpest retreat, with total offenses plummeting 44.6% from 1,242 to 688. Burglary dropped 51.2% (213 to 104), larceny-theft fell 47.1% (717 to 379), and robberies halved from 59 to 30. First Hill similarly tracked downward, logging a 21.7% drop from 1,496 to 1,172 offenses, aided by burglaries falling 38.0% (411 to 255) and robberies sliding from 56 to 40.

On Capitol Hill — singled out by the Times as logging the city’s highest offense volume by 2025 — overall crime dropped 19.4% (2,716 to 2,188) in the 2026 vs 2021 comparison. Burglary tumbled 38.4% (734 to 452) and larceny-theft fell 13.5% (1,320 to 1,142). However, violent crime proved stickier: while robbery dropped 20.6% and aggravated assault fell 11.0%, reported rapes jumped 50% from 24 to 36.

The monthly trends across 2026 for the three key neighborhoods may show what is coming next as across the first eight months of complete data in the system, 2026 ran hotter than 2021. Total crime rose from 3,269 January–August offenses in 2021 to 3,623 in 2026 (+10.8%), driven by a 20.3% spike in violent crime that peaked in June at 94 offenses (versus 64 in June 2021). Property offenses mirrored this early climb before flattening around 370–400 monthly reports.

The turning point surfaced midsummer. While 2021 trend lines climbed steadily through the summer, 2026 plateaued and converged. By July (454 vs. 458) and August (463 vs. 466), 2026 overall volume slipped below 2021 baselines, while violent crime fell back to 77 incidents. Rather than endless displacement radiating from downtown, the East Precinct closed the summer on a downward arc.

Overall, the data could represent hope for change. The multi-year record outlined by the Times makes the case that focused enforcement in the urban core inadvertently pushed disorder up the Hill, leaving the area to absorb a bulk of citywide offense increases through 2025. But the cooling seen in five-year comparisons and the midsummer leveling of 2026 suggest this wave may have finally stalled. While the first half of the year brought a jump in monthly offenses, the late-summer retreat below 2021 totals offers some hope that the neighborhood’s crime totals are beginning to bend back downward.

Holding onto that progress, however, is work. As the Times report showed, public safety interventions trickle into adjacent blocks and transit hubs. For neighbors looking to steer that outcome rather than just watch the numbers fluctuate, the Capitol Hill Community Council meets regularly. You can learn more at capitolhillcommunitycouncil.com.

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City signage permits reveal the coffee shop is preparing to open in the former Starbucks along Westlake Ave N. The cafe is part of the AGC Building and Marina that rises above the water on the westside of the lake.

The shuttered Starbucks previously occupied a ground-level, drive-through-capable space adjacent to the 10-story office tower.

Fueling drivers would be an interesting shift for Analog.

CHS reported here in 2021 on the cafe’s first ten years on Summit Ave. Founders Danny Hanlon and Tim Hayden once vowed that the original cafe was the only coffee shop they’d ever open. Times change.

Meanwhile, a steady drip of new ventures continues to fill retail spaces left behind by Starbucks continuing to reduce its nationwide retail footprint including stores in its Seattle hometown. While many of what comes next for the spaces is caffeinated like Analog, others like this project in Eastlake represent a new direction for the spaces.

Analog has yet to widely announce the new Westlake expansion and there’s no word, yet, of an opening date but the signage permit has been issued.

In the meantime, you can visit the original at 235 Summit Ave E. Learn more at analogcoffee.com.

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The Seattle City Attorney’s Office, which traditionally handles only misdemeanors, is expanding its reach into felony-level enforcement through collaboration with the county.

One newly created prosecutor position will be cross-deputized with the King County Prosecuting Attorney’s Office. The setup allows the attorney to pursue both misdemeanor and felony charges, significantly boosting local capacity to prosecute pimps, sex traffickers, and child exploiters along the Aurora corridor, Evans said.

The second role will lead SCAO’s new Firearms Unit, focusing on Extreme Risk Protection Orders. Working with the Seattle Police Department, this civil prosecutor will facilitate court orders to disarm individuals posing imminent threats of harm.

Mayor Katie Wilson included funding for both roles in her city budget proposal.

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Taking effect January 1, the hike will push Seattle’s total sales tax rate to 10.56%.

Enabled by recent state legislation, the council was able to enact the tax without a public ballot measure. The statute grants local governments the authority to fund childcare, housing, and youth programs, leaving County Executive Girmay Zahilay discretion to allocate proceeds during upcoming budget cycles.

If individual cities within the county decide to enact their own version of the tax, their collections will offset the county’s share to prevent double taxation.

The increase comes as voters prepare to weigh in on the November ballot including a vote on the 2026 Seattle Transit Measure, a proposed 10-year renewal funded by a 0.3% sales tax championed by Mayor Katie Wilson to allow the city to purchase increased bus service on key routes.

The General Election is Tuesday, November 3rd.

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(Image: Bellevue Rare Coins)

One of the great under-told Seattle stories of the 21st century is how the city’s economic tides and entrepreneurial currents have filled the spaces left behind by the retreat of its hometown coffee giant.

One recent example is in the Central District at 23rd and Jackson where cafe and job training venture Coffee TAB is now serving in a space Starbucks exited over public safety concerns in a neighborhood it had been so proud to debut in decades earlier. On Capitol Hill, there are tacos on Broadway and pet supplies on E Olive Way.

The city’s next post-SBUX regeneration will come below Capitol Hill in Eastlake where a former Starbucks cafe is lined up to provide a new service in the neighborhood dealing in precious metals, numismatics, fine watches, and jewelry along the main drag.

The opening will also be a return to the city for a company with a long history of serving the rare coin, and gold and silver needs of Seattle customers.

City paperwork shows a new outlet for Bellevue Rare Coins is being planned for a change of use in the 2300 block Eastlake Ave E space where Starbucks shuttered its neighborhood outlet.

Bellevue Rare Coins offers precious metal dealing, numismatic services, estate purchasing, and custom jewelry care across Puget Sound locations in Bellevue, Issaquah, Lynnwood, and Tacoma… and, soon, Eastlake.

The shop won’t be the first Bellevue Rare Coins located in Seattle. In 2022, the company shuttered its West Seattle flagship after being unable to upgrade the security of its longtime shop following an armed robbery at the outlet.

With spot gold and silver trading at highs, industry reports detail storefronts like BRC shifting heavily toward consumer selling rather than buying. Meanwhile, precious metals and estate appraisals rely, um, heavily on customers transporting high-value items to the store. While Eastlake Ave E is a big construction mess right now, the corridor is being reconfigured for transit, driver, and pedestrian safety improvements with a planned launch of a new RapidRide J line in 2027.

The big driver? The property has a surface parking lot and isn’t far off I-5. And it was for sale. Records show corporations related to the company behind the purchase of the Eastlake parcel for $2 million in August.

Back then, that was about 500 ounces of shiny gold. By next summer — if industry forecasts hold — those ounces will be worth around $2.5 million. There’s no telling if Eastlake real estate will keep up.

Meanwhile, some Starbucks holes take longer to patch. One of its biggest is on Melrose and Pine where the company suddenly closed its $20 million+ Capitol Hill roastery. That space has now been empty and shuttered for over a year.

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