United States President Donald Trump announced late Tuesday night that Canada and the U.S. had reached a tentative trade deal and that he was hitting pause on the new 50 per cent tariffs for three days to allow for sides to finalize the documentation. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer congratulated Trump shortly after and said the deal had several provisions that protect American and Canadian workers and partners. But Prime Minister Mark Carney sounded a little more cautious. The Financial Post dives into what that might mean for Canada.

What happened?

Trump said in a proclamation on Tuesday that Canada “has expressed a commitment to remove the discriminations or unreasonable and unequal impositions at issue” and gave officials another three days to finalize the deal.

The proclamation did not provide many details, but in a Truth Social post Trump mentioned the Keystone XL pipeline project and said that it “may be awoken from the grave.”

Greer also said in a tweet that the tentative deal will include “comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners.”

Carney provided scant details about the deal.

“We are now moving towards an agreement that reinforces that Canadian advantage, including by securing the best terms in each of Canada’s most important strategic sectors and providing greater certainty about our future trading relationship,” he said in a statement on Wednesday afternoon.

Why the last-minute announcement?

Trump has a history of announcing, implementing, pausing and extending tariffs using emergency declarations. Last February, Trump repeatedly extended short-term pauses on the 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico before they were fully implemented.

The U.S. and Canada reached an historic 11th-hour deal that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement ( CUSMA ) in 2018.

“Most important international trade negotiations often end up literally at the wire. That’s very common,” said Daniel Trefler, an economics professor at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, in an interview.

So what’s in the deal?

Details about the tentative deal haven’t been made public and have yet to be finalized, so everything was still murky as of Wednesday afternoon.

Trump mentioned U.S. concessions in the ongoing talks during a news conference on Wednesday afternoon but didn’t elaborate.

“Got to give something, and we’re doing certain things. We’re paying a high number. We’re reducing it a little bit. It’s good for everybody, but our farmers are going to be thrilled. Our manufacturers are going to be thrilled,” he said.

While Trump suggested U.S. farmers would face no tariffs, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc expressed confidence that supply management would remain largely intact.

Trefler speculated that, based on Greer’s tweet, concessions were potentially made in regards to provincial bans on American alcohol, Canada’s dairy supply management system and retaliatory tariffs on U.S. automobiles — things the Trump administration had used to justify the new levies.

He added that Canada likely made concessions on several other items, including defence spending.

The Canadian government had already made concessions before trade negotiations began, such as axing the digital services tax and regulatory levies on large streaming services with over $25 million in Canadian revenues

“Canadians are rightfully angry, but we need to be careful that, in our anger, we don’t jump out of the frying pan and into the fire,” Trefler said.

“We will need to make concessions.”

What are the potential economic implications if concessions were made?

That depends on what concessions were.

“Canadian consumers do not have to buy American alcohol whether or not it’s on the shelves.… I see that as zero consequence,” Trefler said.

“We’re largely tinkering at the margins on dairy, but we’re still not letting huge amounts of dairy in. I tend not to be too concerned about that.”

However, concessions on Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on automobiles could have sweeping economic implications, he added.

Trump imposed a 25 per cent levy on foreign cars and trucks last year, but gave Canada and the U.S. a partial break on car parts made in the U.S. If half a car is assembled in the U.S., that would have an effective tariff rate of 12.5 per cent.

Canada and Mexico have been pushing for a tariff rate that applies to parts that aren’t sourced in North America instead.

“If the new levies apply to parts of the car that aren’t made in North America, then I think we could live with that. If it applies to the part of the car only made in the U.S., it’s a little bit tougher. Is it catastrophic? Not in the short run, but maybe over a period of 10 years, it could be bad, especially if places like Windsor and Exeter are massively dependent on the auto industry,” Trefler said.

Is there room for a more positive outcome?

Yes. TD Economics said in an updated Q&A article that if negotiations result in relief on the Section 232 tariffs on metal products and other goods, that would mean a clearer path towards CUSMA renewal that would be an upside risk to growth.

“For the time being, as the parameters of any new agreement are unknown, we assume no change to the tariff regime and expect Canadian growth to register 0.9 per cent in 2026, and 1.8 per cent in 2027,” the article read.

Derek Holt, vice president and head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said in a note published on Wednesday morning that the odds of Canada getting a trade deal before the U.S. midterm elections had gone up.

“If a deal that extends CUSMA and lowers uncertainty in a meaningful way were to be achieved, then it would be positive for Canadian economic growth and negligible for U.S. growth. It would buoy market and business sentiment toward Canada. It could put at ease consumer worries,” he wrote.

What about Keystone XL?

The expansion project was a bargaining chip for Trump throughout the trade negotiations. He posted on Truth Social post in February 2025 that he wanted to revive the project.

In October, the National Post reported that Carney raised the idea of possibly revisiting the Keystone XL project to Trump during a visit to Washington, D.C., in the hopes of seeing progress made on a deal regarding the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Economists have previously said investment into critical infrastructure such as pipelines is needed to grow the Canadian economy.

An analysis by Farhad Panahov and Jordan Brennan of RBC in April said new oil pipelines and liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals could elevate Canada to “energy superpower status,” help diversify trade relationships and provide energy security to allies.

Marc Ercolao and Likeleli Seitlheko , economists at TD Economics, wrote in a July analysis that a new pipeline would generate massive amounts of economic activity — from $25 billion to $40 billion in total construction spending — along with fiscal gains from higher royalties and taxes, potentially lifting Canada’s real gross domestic product by 0.3 per cent. However, that is highly dependent on production and price sensitivities.

Ok, now what?

Canadian and U.S. officials have until 12:01 a.m. on Saturday to finalize a deal.

LeBlanc’s office said the minister headed back to Ottawa on Tuesday afternoon to meet with Carney to discuss final details about the negotiations.

Regardless of what happens, Trefler said Canada and the U.S. will never be able to go back to their old trade relationship.

“The U.S. has ceased to be a reliable partner, and even if the current U.S. government happens to be on good terms with Canada, what will the subsequent one be? They’re now an erratic trading partner, and there is no going back,” he said.

“There will be people who will want to invest in the U.S. more than they want to invest in Canada, but it’ll also hurt the U.S. because people will not to invest because it’s such a basket case in terms of governance. Overall, I think the U.S. will be hurt by this, but they’re going to drag Canada down with them.”

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• Email: ptran@postmedia.com

After relying on Moneris Solutions Corp. for 15 years, Toronto-based business owner Paul Bains started using a different payment processor to handle his credit and debit transactions in late 2025 primarily because he was offered a discount.

Bains, who has been in the printing business since 2005, decided to switch to a company based in the United States, which was a lot bigger than Canadian-owned Moneris. A few months in, however, he realized he had made the wrong decision.

“It did not work out because they are really big and they didn’t care much about small businesses like mine,” he said. “Whenever there was an issue or a larger-than-usual transaction, they made my life so hard and demanded so much information. That was really surprising.”

For example, Bains said during the FIFA World Cup, his company, which also accepts apparel-related printing projects, made more sales than usual, including a $50,000 transaction, the payment for which took two weeks to go through because he had to submit a series of documents to convince his payment processor it was not a scam. As a result, it was difficult for him to pay his vendors.

“We don’t have that kind of capital lying around to wait for two to three weeks,” he said.

Bains understands that suspicious transactions need to be checked, but he said payment processors need to understand that when it comes to small businesses , it’s tough to predict the value of transactions and that they may surge during specific periods.

As a result of his troubles, Bains switched back to Moneris earlier this year. But the decision by Royal Bank of Canada and the Bank of Montreal to sell the company to San Francisco-based investment firm Francisco Partners Management LP for $2 billion has him once again worried that a big U.S.-based company won’t have time to address the issues of a small business and that fees might increase.

“If they are paying $2 billion, their prime motive is going to be to make money,” he said. “But where do I go? We don’t have many options.”

Moneris was created as a joint venture between RBC and BMO in 2000 and now helps 325,000 businesses and sales locations accept payments, representing one in three transactions in Canada .

The sale of the company announced last week is expected to close early next year after getting the approval from regulators.

The deal will allow Moneris to grow further because Francisco Partners has a track record for growing technology-based businesses, chief executive James Hicks said in a statement last week, while Peter Christodoulo, a partner at Francisco, said the company sees a significant opportunity for long-term growth “while preserving the deeply Canadian identity.”

But some analysts and business owners such as Bains are not convinced.

Neil Desai, senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and chief executive of fintech startup FinVentures Canada Inc., said buying an asset and then increasing prices is the “classic private-equity play” that Francisco will likely follow.

He said Moneris has typically been a low-price, low-tech payment player and dominates the small and mid-sized enterprise market , so any price increases are going to hurt businesses.

“Even a marginal price increase could make their businesses less competitive or even not profitable,” he said. “That practical risk is real when private equity from another country purchases such assets.”

Desai also said switching to another payment processor won’t help much since they are already more expensive and the choices are limited compared to other advanced economies.

But Todd Roberts, a senior partner at Deloitte Canada, said the market is highly competitive with a range of relatively similar choices.

“I don’t think there is a story here around Moneris’s changing ownership leading to a negative outcome for Canadian businesses,” he said. “This is going to bring more innovation to better serve the needs of Canadian businesses. Francisco Partners has the interest and motivation to drive a highly successful business.”

While the fee charged by payment processors is one issue, transparency is another.

Payment-processing statements typically include fees charged by banks, card networks such as Visa and Mastercard, and the payment processor itself, said Rick Smith, founder of Fee Advocates, which helps small businesses by reading and analyzing the financial statements sent to them by payment processors and trying to negotiate better deals.

He said credit card fees are largely non-negotiable, but a processor’s fee can often be negotiated. However, he said some U.S.-based payment processors make it difficult for businesses to distinguish between the various charges, making it harder to identify fee increases or negotiate better rates.

Smith said Moneris has historically been more transparent than its four primary competitors in Canada and he worries that could change after the takeover.

He also said some of his clients are worried that in the current geopolitical context, the sale of Canada’s only significant payment processor to a U.S.-based private-equity firm doesn’t flow with the Canadian government’s role of trying to reduce its economic reliance on the U.S.

That’s something Bains agrees with.

“We should be supporting more local than going to the U.S. because we’re trying to be self-dependent,” he said.

The sale of Moneris has also raised concerns about what’s going to happen to the years of data that it has collected from Canadians regarding their spending patterns and whether that’s going to be dangerous in the hands of a foreign company.

But Roberts said the deal has been structured to ensure that operations will run out of Canada and have to follow Canadian privacy and other laws .

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“The sovereignty angle is being dramatically overplayed,” he said. “RBC and BMO should actually be applauded for finding a partner that was going to be investing in a Canadian franchise.”

Ebrahim Bagheri, a professor at the University of Toronto, however, said there needs to be clarity regarding what happens in case U.S. authorities require the soon-to-be U.S. company to hand over the data.

“What is the jurisdiction under which they comply?” he said. “I hope there are clauses within the deal that make sure Canadian legal sovereignty is respected and that data remains in Canada, and also that data is dealt with based on Canadian law.”

Despite all the concerns, Smith hopes that his assumptions are wrong.

“Maybe (Francisco) are great people to deal with,” he said. “I don’t know anything about them; maybe I am just wrong.”

• Email: nkarim@postmedia.com

The new Churchill Falls agreement promises to rewrite the economics of one of Canada’s largest hydroelectric developments more than a decade before its notoriously lopsided power contract expires.

Under the agreement in principle announced on Monday, Newfoundland and Labrador will begin receiving substantially more for Churchill Falls electricity starting in 2027, rather than waiting for the existing contract to expire in 2041.

But the agreement goes far beyond that. The province will also gain control of substantially more electricity, secure new ways to benefit from export markets and pursue major new hydroelectric, transmission and wind developments.

The province estimates the overall package is worth $49 billion in today’s dollars, up from $36 billion under the rejected 2024 memorandum of understanding.

Ottawa is backing the deal with up to $10 billion in financing and other support, which the province values at $3.5 billion in today’s dollars, including a federal loan guarantee for Gull Island.

Here’s what you need to know about this large and complex deal and the questions that remain.

Is Newfoundland and Labrador getting fair value for Churchill Falls?

There is little question the province will receive a lot more for Churchill Falls electricity than it does today. Hydro-Québec will pay 1.8 cents per kilowatt-hour beginning in 2027, up from 0.2 cents today, with the price rising to 11.5 cents by 2041.

Hydro-Québec, by comparison, received an average of 14.5 cents per kilowatt-hour on electricity sold outside Quebec in 2025, although that figure reflects a mix of markets, contracts and trading activity, so it isn’t directly comparable to Churchill Falls.

Newfoundland and Labrador estimates the new Churchill Falls contracts alone are worth $38.6 billion in today’s dollars and would extend to 2077.

But David Vardy, a former chair of the province’s Public Utilities Board and a long-time critic of the previous agreement, said comparing the new arrangement with one of the most unfavourable power contracts in Canadian history sets the bar too low.

“What I’m looking for is value,” he said.

He believes the better measure is Newfoundland and Labrador’s share of the “economic rent,” essentially the value left over after the costs of producing and transmitting the electricity and reasonable returns on investment are accounted for.

Vardy and other critics have proposed that the province should receive 75 per cent of that remaining value after 2041, though that is their benchmark rather than an independently established definition of a fair deal.

He also questions how well the agreement protects the province against electricity market changes over its 50-year term. The new pricing includes adjustments tied to inflation, but he said that doesn’t necessarily ensure the price will keep pace with what electricity is worth.

“We needed markets, electric power markets, not the consumer price index ,” he said.

François Bouffard, an associate professor of engineering at McGill University in Montreal who studies electricity systems, takes a broader view.

“They made the pie bigger,” he said.

Newfoundland and Labrador’s allocation from the existing Churchill Falls plant will more than triple to 1,630 megawatts from 525 megawatts, while Hydro-Québec’s share would fall to 3,660 megawatts from 4,765 megawatts.

The province could use that power domestically or sell unused electricity back to Hydro-Québec at 150 per cent of the base contract price, with three years’ notice to change its allocation.

Does the province finally get access to outside markets?

For decades, one of Newfoundland and Labrador’s biggest disadvantages has been geography. Moving large quantities of electricity to customers elsewhere in Canada or the United States generally means going through Quebec.

The government said the new agreement provides 985 megawatts of access to export markets, but that figure requires some unpacking.

Of that amount, 240 megawatts will receive pricing that is equivalent to Hydro-Québec’s New York contract and another 200 megawatts will be priced at an equivalent to its New England contract. A further 280 megawatts would receive a synthetic price based on markets in Ontario, New York and New England.

In those cases, Newfoundland and Labrador only delivers electricity to the Quebec border rather than selling it directly into those markets. The government said the remaining 265 megawatts will be used for direct market access using transmission rights Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro already holds.

Vardy said the crucial test is whether the province can directly negotiate with customers outside Quebec, pay Hydro-Québec a reasonable fee for using its transmission system and retain the remaining value of the sale.

“We’re probably never going to get market price unless we can deal directly with the final customer,” he said.

Why build a bigger Gull Island if it doesn’t produce more electricity?

The proposed Gull Island development would grow to 2,700 megawatts from about 2,250 megawatts, while the expected annual energy production remains around 12 terawatt-hours.

Megawatts measure how much electricity can be produced at a given moment; terawatt-hours measure how much is produced over time.

Vardy questions whether the added value justifies a larger, more expensive plant. Bouffard said the extra turbines could allow Gull Island to produce more electricity when demand — and the value of electricity — is highest.

“Spot on. That’s it,” he said when asked whether that was the benefit of the additional 450 megawatts.

The same principle helps explain the potential value of combining hydroelectricity with wind power, Bouffard said.

Reservoirs can effectively store water when wind generation is plentiful and produce hydroelectricity when the wind isn’t blowing or demand is higher. Bouffard described the combination as producing “premium electrons” that are both low-carbon and reliable.

What does Quebec get?

Why would Hydro-Québec agree to pay substantially more years before its bargain-basement contract expires? Bouffard said the answer is certainty.

Waiting until 2041 would allow Quebec to continue buying Churchill Falls power at extremely low prices for another 15 years. But major dams and transmission lines take years to plan and build, while Quebec is already looking for large amounts of additional electricity.

“The time we’re buying by not waiting too long is an enormous economic value,” Bouffard said.

The alternatives could also be substantially more expensive. He said Hydro-Québec officials indicated that alternatives such as wind and solar backed by energy storage could cost roughly three times as much on average as power under the Churchill Falls agreement.

Quebec is paying more, in other words, but securing a long-term source of relatively inexpensive, reliable electricity. Hydro-Québec will also remain the largest customer by far for the power produced by the existing and proposed developments.

What questions remain?

Most of the agreement is not yet legally binding, with the parties still required to negotiate final contracts. The key terms are already laid out and cannot be substantially changed when the final agreements are drafted.

But some developments also remain uncertain. The proposed 2,500-megawatt second powerhouse at Churchill Falls is only at the feasibility-study stage, while the ultimate costs and economics of Gull Island have yet to be established.

Vardy also points to future shareholder agreements, water management and the precise rights Newfoundland and Labrador will have over transmission and power sales as details that could materially affect the agreement’s value.

Political uncertainty remains as well, with Bouffard pointing to Quebec’s October election and the Parti Québécois’ opposition to the agreement.

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Under the terms of the tentative agreement, Newfoundland and Labrador will receive substantially more money, control far more electricity and have greater opportunities to benefit from outside markets than under the existing Churchill Falls arrangement.

Vardy said the harder question is how much those gains are ultimately worth and whether, once the final agreements are signed, they represent a fair division of the value of a resource that will continue producing electricity long after the new contracts expire.

arankin@postmedia.com

It is hard to pinpoint the exact date John Silva decided to name the ice company he started out of his parents’ variety store in downtown Toronto the Iceman, but his path from inspiration to incorporation was abundantly clear.

Whenever he would pull up in his truck, say, to a restaurant, gas station or hotel with his latest ice delivery, someone would blurt out some version of “The iceman is here” or “Are you the iceman?”

“It was always iceman-this and iceman-that, so I got the name from there,” he said.

Despite niche celebrity status, the Iceman toiled in relative anonymity for the better part of 40 years, making, selling and delivering ice to street festivals, concert venues, hotels, restaurants, food processing companies and construction giants throughout the Greater Toronto Area.

In other words, Silva was plenty busy before Drake briefly entered his life , not to mention his ice distribution centre, dressed as an Iceman employee in July 2025.

The international rap icon picked up a clipboard and a tape measure and measured an ice block. He heated some food in the lunchroom microwave, rapped a few lines and then drove off behind the wheel of an Iceman delivery truck, turning laps on nearby streets before he parked the vehicle and disappeared into the night.

The 58-minute video livestream was part of an elaborate, months-long promotional run-up to the May release of Drake’s latest chart-topping album called, yep, Iceman.

Drake’s musical appeal may be a mystery to those with a taste for classic rock, but he is a modern John, Paul, George and Ringo to many. His superstardom is global and it can make the kids go a little loopy, as evidenced by the foolhardy bunch who risked life and limb pursuing him in the ice truck on foot and bicycle through the streets of Toronto, in addition to the billion-plus Spotify downloads the songs from Iceman have accrued to date.

The outpouring of love for Drake has led wags to declare it the Summer of the Iceman. Of course, every summer for the past 39 years has been the Summer of the Iceman for the original Iceman, one who earned a pretty penny as a teenager working weekends as a drummer in a Portuguese wedding band.

Silva is not a “big rap guy,” but he is an ice guy consumed year-round by the affairs of a family business that has a factory in the suburbs capable of producing 250,000 pounds of ice per day. The Iceman does about $15 million in revenues annually and the company is currently building a $7-million ice plant that will more than double its production capacity in the near term, while leaving room to add even more capacity long term.

“We have a lot of stuff going on,” Silva said.

Typically, it is the sort of stuff that does not involve Drake. On the night of the livestream, the Iceman’s internet server crashed due to a surge in traffic. Its voicemail was flooded with messages from fans, presumably calling in the hopes that a certain rapper might answer.

He did not, but the phone has kept ringing at Iceman headquarters, with most callers looking to buy ice. It is a business grounded upon the principles of impermanence. Ice gets made, ice melts, a fleeting property not unlike the nature of fame. One day you are on top; the next day you are driving an ice truck for a living.

But both Drake and the Iceman have shown remarkable staying power in their respective professions.

Silva’s eldest son, Jake, joined the company 15 years ago, and he works closely with his 64-year-old father. It is hard to gauge the financial impact of the business’s brush with an international celebrity, he said, but it has created a previously unimagined revenue stream, selling $300 Iceman jackets, $75 hoodies and $60 t-shirts online.

“People started calling us from all over the world asking for our merch, but we are in the ice business, not the merch business, and so at the time we didn’t have any merch to sell,” he said.

They have since sold 300 Iceman jackets and about 500 t-shirts. There is a loose idea to do another run of jackets come fall, but the younger Silva has not had time or energy to give it much thought yet. Summer is the high season for ice, not Drake-related side hustles.

“Our core customers might be Drake fans — I don’t know — but I don’t think that weighs into their decision-making in terms of who is going to provide them with ice for the season,” he said.

The confluence of a Toronto legend and a small Toronto business of the same name was a “match made in heaven,” David Soberman, a marketing professor at the Rotman School of Management, said.

“Drake has been really quite brilliant in the way he does things, and this is really smart because it is taking product placement to a whole new level,” he said.

Soberman has some suggestions for the Iceman to squeeze some additional nickels out of its Drake connection.

First, hire a hungry, young, business school grad and task them with doing a deep dive analysis of the livestream shoot to look for ways, beyond hoodies, to monetize and merchandise the Drake moment, then give them a 12-month contract to sell as much Iceman-branded stuff as humanly possible.

His other suggestion would be to consider expanding the ice business into new territories, leveraging the company’s elevated profile.

“Drake is one of the two or three biggest pop music stars in the entire world,” he said. “The benefit of something like this is not necessarily in terms of massively tripling or doubling your existing business, but it is about creating opportunities.”

The Silvas were already planning for new opportunities prior to getting a phone call, more or less out of the blue, from Drake’s people.

Canadians enjoy cold drinks, purchasing about $86.5-million worth of ice at retail in 2025, with 40 per cent of sales coming in July, August and September, according to Statistics Canada. The average American buys four bags of ice a year, typically between the Memorial Day weekend in May and Labour Day, according to the United States Food and Drug Administration.

However, the ice cubes bobbing around in cocktails are just the tip of the statistical iceberg. What the government numbers do not account for are things such as hummus. Industrial-scale hummus producers add ice to the hummus mixture, thus ensuring a smooth finished product.

Agri-businesses and independent farmers pack produce in ice for transport, and when outdoor temperatures creep above 25 C, construction companies add ice to cement-mixing trucks to prevent the cement from curing en route to the job site.

Food processors and construction companies account for more than 50 per cent of the Iceman’s business. In short, ice abounds, including in condominium towers being built.

But the annual spike in demand for it during the summer triggers an equally annual and predictable industry-wide crisis.

“Every summer, there is a shortage of ice,” Jake Silva said.

That is true in Toronto and across the northeastern United States. The players will sell to one another at wholesale prices when one company has surplus ice and another has a shortfall and an order to fill. But that’s not ideal.

“It is a lot more economical for us to make our own ice,” Silva said.

In the big picture, the demand for ice tracks population growth. More people mean more people buying ice, as well as more demand from hummus businesses, those building roads and concrete towers and so on. Hence, the Iceman’s decision to invest in a new plant, since “somebody has to make ice,” Silva said.

The old plant is in an industrial park near a highway ribboning across the top of Toronto. Two Iceman trucks were parked in the loading bay on a hot, early August morning. Their drivers sought relief in a sliver of shade near the vehicles.

Once upon a time, they said an Iceman truck was just another truck in a traffic-clogged city. These days, locals are liable to wave, smile, occasionally take photos and generally betray some flicker of a recognition when an Iceman truck rolls past, a refreshing change from the disinterested, occasionally irate Toronto driver look the ice guys had been accustomed to.

“The Drake thing has been great exposure for the company,” Evan Wheatley, a driver, said. “People love seeing the trucks.”

The Silvas have 50 employees. As far as family companies go, theirs reflects a harmonious working relationship in that father and son work closely, but have completely different roles within the company.

John is a natural salesperson, with 40 years’ worth of customer relationships to lean on, which could explain why his phone is constantly pinging. His son works on the production side and is overseeing the planning and construction of the new factory.

Silva has another son, Jordan, who is a wig master and hair stylist with the Canadian Opera Company, while the boys’ mom, Josie, is retired and spends her summers in Portugal, wanting nothing to do with a business that does not stop from May to September.

On that note, John and Jake appeared remarkably fresh-faced and suitably attired in Iceman-branded clothing following an August long weekend where any plans they may have had were derailed by an iceman’s worst nightmare: one of the icemakers broke down.

If there is a truism about ice, Jake Silva said, it is that it is a hard substance, and it “breaks stuff.” Much of his job involves fixing that stuff.

If there is another truism about ice, it is that not all ice is created equal.

Ice is regulated as a food product north and south of the border. Iceman is one of 11 Canadian companies belonging to the Canadian branch of the Florida-based International Packaged Ice Association, which has 400 members and a mission to “drive growth” and uphold the highest safety standards.

There is good reason for this: lead, bacteria and all kinds of nasty stuff have been detected in ice by university researchers over the years, including in a 2016 occupational and public health study by Toronto Metropolitan University that examined ice samples from 40 Toronto restaurants. Close to eight per cent of the samples contained bacteria.

Every bag of ice that rolls off of the Iceman assembly line begins with a single ingredient: City of Toronto water. The ice is screened by a metal detector and then gets mixed and turned by a corkscrew-shaped device known as a “snow reel.”

The reel weeds out excess snow and ice slivers from each batch of ice, enhancing overall ice quality, since, as Silva explained, ice should emerge from a bag in cube form, not in a frozen block that requires being slammed on pavement before being deposited in a cooler.

“Having good cubes is a detail that we try and pay attention to,” he said.

The temperature inside the factory is kept at 11 C. That’s cold, but not so cold that the younger Silva can’t tour the place in a pair of shorts, sneakers and an Iceman hoodie. His father was dressed more for sales calls — long pants and loafers. Both outfits spoke to the chill nature of the family’s business.

“What has been really cool, and I don’t say this lightly, is that Drake put us on an international stage, and we’ve been able to sort of stand on the shoulders of his celebrity and ride the wave of this project that he is working on,” Jake Silva said.

Presumably, at some point, that wave is going to peter out, but the original Iceman is not going anywhere.

“I don’t see myself ever retiring,” John Silva said. “What would I do? I love my job; I work seven days a week.”

• Email: joconnor@postmedia.com

Students heading back to college or university in September are increasingly turning to used computers and phones as they look to save a few dollars while costs climb.

More than 70 per cent of Canadian gen-Zers have bought used tech in the past year, compared to 63 per cent of the general population, according to a recent report by Best Buy Co. Inc.

Used tech refers to all open-box, trade-in or refurbished products. Best Buy said refurbished products offer about a 40 per cent discount off the same brand new model, while open-box items, which could be returned items or in-store displays, have an average discount of 28.3 per cent.

Among the gen-Zers who favoured used technology, cost was the main deciding factor for 81 per cent, while 44 per cent were concerned about reducing the environmental impact of new tech. The durability of these products is also a factor among 25 per cent of gen-Zers.

Gen Z is also the most price-conscious demographic among Canadian tech shoppers, with 46 per cent of them spending $500 or less on tech last year.

Tuition for college students continues to climb, with Canadians paying US$5,590 per year for a bachelor’s degree, the third highest in the world behind the U.S. (US$9,596) and Japan (US$5,645), according to Education Data Initiative estimates published this month using data from 2023.

Ontario students are not expected to receive a price break this year as the provincial government ended a tuition freeze on post-secondary education, allowing schools to hike tuition by two per cent per year for the next three years.

Students, however, may be getting some relief on rent. The average rent across Canada was $2,037 per month in July, down four per cent year over year, according to Rentals.ca .

Students may be at a particular advantage when it comes to rent because the cap on foreign students has helped lower asking rents in the student market.

Rentals.ca said cities with the highest concentration of students in 2025 experienced steep declines in rent prices as demand waned.

The University of Waterloo said students looking to save money should plan a budget and stick to it, eat their meals at home, take advantage of discounts tailored for students, buy used items and start saving for school early.

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Canada dodged U.S. tariffs Tuesday night after President Donald Trump announced that Canada and the U.S. had reached a tentative deal and would hit pause on the new levies for three days.

New U.S. tariffs were set to hit $29 billion worth of Canadian goods as of midnight today.

In a Truth Social post last night announcing the tariff delay, Trump hinted that the revival of the Keystone XL Pipeline may be part of the deal.

“The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!,” he wrote.

As today’s chart shows energy is the United States’ largest import from Canada.

• 2:00 p.m.: Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision
• Today’s data: Construction investment for June
• Earnings: Lowe’s Companies Inc., Target Corp.

• Here’s what top economists are saying about the potential impact of Trump’s 50% tariffs as deadline nears
• The puck is about to drop as John Tavares faces off against the CRA over signing bonus
• Garry Marr: Shared home ownership was a feel-good trend. Now some are paying a big price
• Canadian home prices post first month-over-month increase since 2024

The rising cost of real estate made shared home ownership a trendy option, but this can lead to a messy situation if things go south. Financial Post columnist Garry Marr says due diligence is needed before agreeing to buy a property with someone and sometimes forming a corporation is the best option. Read more here.

Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors. Sign up here.

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Ben Cousins with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com .

• Foreign investors are snapping up Canadian debt in a record bond binge, but there are risks
• An energy shock much bigger than oil is brewing out there

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A new round of 50 per cent tariffs on nearly US$20 billion of Canadian goods are scheduled to go into effect at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday unless a deal can be reached between Canadian and U.S. trade negotiators . The duties are being imposed through three proclamations signed last month by U.S. President Donald Trump, who claimed the tariffs are in response to Canada’s “discriminatory treatment of U.S. commerce” on three fronts: alcohol, automobiles and dairy products. Here’s what top economists are saying about the potential impact of the new tariffs and what Canada might do in response.

How will the tariffs affect Canada’s economy?

The new tariffs are expected to impact a wide range of Canadian goods, from Canadian wine and whisky to cement and hockey sticks.

According to an analysis by BMO Economics senior economists Shelly Kaushik and deputy chief economist Michael Gregory, the largest impacts will be in the following sectors:

• Chemicals and plastics
• Electronics and related equipment
• Consumer goods
• Forestry and wood products
• Machinery and industrial equipment
• Agriculture and food
• Other manufacturing

“Ultimately, the impact on Canada’s economy will rest on the extent (and duration) of these tariff threats,” Kaushik and Gregory wrote. “This comes just as growth looked to be finding its footing more than a year into the trade war and months into the Iran war-driven energy price shock.”

Economists have different forecasts on the tariffs’ potential impact on Canada’s economic growth.

Kaushik and Gregory said the tariffs could reduce annual real gross domestic product growth by roughly 0.5 percentage points if implemented in full.

Andrew Hencic, director and senior economist for TD Economics, said the tariffs will likely take 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points off GDP growth over the next year if they are imposed and maintained.

A Desjardins analysis was less pessimistic, finding that the tariffs could reduce real GDP growth 0.2 percentage points in 2026 if they go ahead as planned.

Real gross domestic product growth is currently projected to rise from 0.7 per cent in 2026 to around 1.8 per cent in 2027 and 2028, according to the Bank of Canada’s latest Monetary Policy Report, which was published before the tariffs were announced.

Will there be job losses?

Economists said the 50 per cent tariffs would slow economic momentum and weaken business investment, which would negatively impact Canada’s labour market.

An RBC Economics analysis estimates the duties could hurt around 20 per cent of production and jobs in manufacturing sectors that will be impacted by the new tariffs. This includes manufacturing sub-sectors such as apparel, leather and allied products; electrical equipment and appliances; and textile and textile mill products.

Canada’s manufacturing sector has already been hit hard by job losses from existing duties. Data from Statistics Canada shows the manufacturing industry has lost 14,600 jobs since last July, or a 0.8 per cent decrease.Another report, while not specific to the new tariffs, suggests that Canada and the U.S. could lose hundreds of thousands of jobs if the Canada-U.S. Mexico Agreement isn’t renegotiated and the trade relationship worsens.

A report prepared for the Canadian American Business Council by Oxford Economics outlined three scenarios: a status quo situation where tariffs remain in place, a situation where the CUSMA breaks down and a situation where CUSMA is successfully re-negotiated and the trade relationship improves.

The report projected 102,000 Canadian jobs and 214,000 U.S. jobs would be lost if CUSMA breaks down. However, if CUSMA is successfully re-negotiated and the trade relationship improves, it would add around 98,000 jobs in Canada and 137,000 jobs in the U.S.”Weaker trade and investment feed quickly into hiring,” the report read.

What about inflation?

Economists said the impact on inflation will depend on how Canada responds to the tariffs.

Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters at an unrelated news conference in Newfoundland on Monday that he has “plans for any situation that may arise” if the two sides fail to reach a deal, but didn’t expand on what that might mean.

Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, said U.S. tariffs raises prices for U.S. importers, so U.S. consumers will be affected by inflationary measures as importers pass costs to consumers.

“The reality is, when you have a trade disruption like that, you will see retaliatory measures imposed by the other country. That’s where you could potentially see some impact — if Canada were to impose retaliatory measures on some of our own imports from the U.S.,” he said in an interview last week.

Andrew Grantham, executive director and senior economist for CIBC Capital Markets, said there may be a near-term increase in consumer prices if the Liberal government decides to impose retaliatory tariffs, which would put pressure on the inflation rate.

“U.S. tariffs will be a negative for the Canadian economy. Longer term, that actually has a disinflationary pressure for the Canadian economy…. But nothing is guaranteed because we don’t know if these tariffs will come into effect, and if they do, if and how we are going to retaliate,” he said in an interview last week.

How are businesses and consumers reacting?

A report by economists and researchers at the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses found that around 90 per cent of 1,833 members surveyed said they are concerned about the potential impact of the proposed tariffs.

Around 78 per cent of respondents believed that the new tariffs would make their products uncompetitive in the U.S. market, and 75 per cent said it would accelerate efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S. market.

Seventy-eight per cent of respondents also said they expect revenue losses if the tariffs are implemented, with 35 per cent of those respondents predicting revenues falling by at least half.

On the consumer side, a new survey conducted by Abacus Data found that 70 per cent of 1,499 respondents expect the tariffs to harm their local economies.

Seventy-four per cent of those surveyed said the trade dispute with the U.S. has affected their household finances, with 30 per cent of those respondents describing the impact as major and 44 per cent describing it as minor.

However, Canadians were divided on whether Ottawa should respond. Thirty-six per cent of respondents said they want Canada to respond with new counter tariffs, while another 30 per cent preferred continued negotiations without new counter tariffs. Only 18 per cent favoured offering concessions to U.S. officials, such as ending provincial bans on American alcohol, if doing so gets tariffs removed.

Additionally, 55 per cent said Canada should prepare to move on from CUSMA and build trade relationships with other countries, while 34 per cent said they want Canada to keep working to preserve the agreement.

• Opinion: Canada's tough talk is not reality-based
• William Watson: Let’s make a deal

So what happens now?

The tariffs will take affect at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday if Canadian and U.S. officials do not reach a deal before the deadline.

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, chief trade negotiator Janice Charette and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have been in Washington, D.C., but no deal has been reached as of Tuesday morning.

Carney told reporters on Monday that officials are holding last-minute talks to prevent the tariffs from taking effect, and that he will be meeting with Trump ahead of the deadline.

“I have a plan will cover all eventualities … We are negotiating. Negotiations are very intense and delicate. This is not the time to talk about negotiations in public,” he said in French.

“We are negotiating from a position of strength.”

• Email: ptran@postmedia.com

David Rosenberg , founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. , talks to the Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about inflation , the Bank of Canada and how the U.S. economy is faring.

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• Email: lharapyn@postmedia.com

Oil prices have ebbed and flowed this summer with each new twist in the Iran war, but products made from crude — the fuels that run our world — have marched steadily higher.

Gas and diesel prices decoupled from crude in July, limiting any relief from lower oil prices, and according to economists, they are likely to stay high, even after oil starts flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why are oil product prices rising more than oil itself? That has to do with something called a “crack spread” and a series of supply disruptions that are uniquely putting the squeeze on oil product markets.

BofA Global Research describes it as a “perfect summer storm.”

“Three of the world’s four major refining hubs remain impaired for one reason or another,” said strategists in recent note.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Middle East refineries during the Iran war has disrupted more than 20 per cent of global seaborne oil product trade this year. Unlike oil, the loss of these flows has not been offset by the use of pipelines, said Capital Economics.

Meanwhile, Ukraine drone attacks have knocked more than 40 per cent of Russia’s refining capacity offline, which is about three per cent of the global total. Russia is exporting more crude, but has banned gas and diesel exports and has actually been forced to import these products.

China, which has helped ease the loss of crude oil to the market by reducing its imports, has also worsened the strains of the refined product markets by cutting fuel exports, worried about its own domestic supply.

That leaves the United States as the only major refining hub “open for business,” but record exports are drawing down already tight U.S. inventories.

These supply disruptions have pushed crack spreads — the difference between the price of oil and the products that are derived from it, such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — to record highs. Gas prices, for example, are up 98 per cent this year, compared to the 44 per cent rise in WTI crude oil prices.

BofA strategists said the middle distillate markets have tightened rapidly, with diesel and gasoil cracks up more than 85 per cent since June and jet fuel cracks surging nearly 140 per cent.

“With the harvest season already under way, diesel demand is set to accelerate just as inventories across the U.S., Europe, and Asia sit near multi-year lows,” they said. “The result is a market that is about to enter its strongest seasonal demand period with very little margin for error, particularly because global gasoline also remains exceptionally tight.”

Capital Economics expects an increase of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to lower the price of crude oil over the remainder of the year, but unless Ukraine pulls back from attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, oil product prices could remain higher well into 2027.

How is this affecting inflation?

Based on just oil prices, fuel inflation would have contributed 0.6 percentage points to headline inflation in developed economies in July, said Capital. However, because of the surge in crack spreads, fuel inflation is probably contributing closer to 1 percentage points.

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Who needs income if you have wealth? That’s the thinking of Bank of America strategists who blame (in part) a smoking hot equity market for the collapse of labour force participation among older workers in the United States.

The participation rate of workers 55 or older never really recovered after the shock of the pandemic, and remained range-bound until the summer of 2024, they said. Since then it has gone downhill, as the S&P 500 gained 35 per cent over the past two years.

“The resulting surge in wealth has likely made retirement an easier choice for many,” said the strategists.

• Today’s Data: Canada inflation for July, international securities transactions, United States Empire Manufacturing

• Why are the U.S. and Japan trying to prop up the yen and what does it mean for Canada?
• Clocks are ticking on mortgage refinancings
• How can John, who must convert his RRSP to a RRIF at 71, reduce taxes if he keeps working?

Over his 40-year career, portfolio manager Tony Genua built a reputation as a steadfast believer in growth investing. In July, he came out of a brief retirement to join Ninepoint Partners LP where, as a partner and senior portfolio manager, he’ll oversee the Global Select Fund, which aims to harness the growth potential of a concentrated portfolio of international companies. The Financial Post talked with Genua about how he’ll manage the fund, his stock-picking philosophy and where he sees opportunities in the market. Read more

Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors. Sign up here.

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com .

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Foreigners can’t seem to get enough of Canadian debt.

According to the latest international securities transactions data out yesterday, foreign investors’ “voracious appetite” for Canadian bonds continued in June.

National Bank of Canada strategists Taylor Schleich and Warren Lovely said while Ottawa is focusing on building up the domestic economy to make Canada less reliant on the rest of the world, a different dynamic is going on in the bond market.

“Canadian bond issuers are ‘outsourcing’ like never before,” they said.

The $35 billion in net buying by non-residents in June was nearly triple the prior record of $13 billion in June 2024 and brings the year-to-date total to $185 billion, more than 50 per cent higher than the next biggest year in 2020.

Foreign investors are buying both government and corporate bonds, but mostly Government of Canada. So much so that non-residents have not only absorbed all of Ottawa’s net issuance, but also the run-off from the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet, said the strategists.

Non-residents now own 45 per cent of the domestic GoC market, more than residents who own 42.9 per cent.

This isn’t the first time that has happened. Foreign investors owning a bigger share occurred briefly in 2021, 2022 and 2025, but the 2.1 percentage point gap is a new record, said Schleich and Lovely.

Before the pandemic foreigners owned around 33 per cent.

Buyers come from the United Kingdom, the eurozone, Japan and other corners of the earth, but mostly from the United States, which held 43 per cent of non-resident holdings in June.

“Thankfully, our bonds can cross the border tariff-free,” quipped the strategists.

What foreign investors aren’t buying in Canada are money markets and equities. Non-residents have been net sellers of these in 2026.

Foreigners now own more than $2.5 trillion of Canadian bonds, while a decade ago, they owned less than half of that, said the strategists.

While demand is good, the strategists say that a foreigner-heavy investor base also has risks.

Canadian bonds are attractive to outsiders now because of the country’s political stability, more sustainable fiscal policy and as an alternative to United States Treasuries, which face increasing pressure in bond markets.

“Maintaining that will be key to keeping borrowing costs relatively low,” said Schleich and Lovely.

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Canada’s inflation rate ticked up to 3 per cent in July, Statistics Canada showed yesterday, but that rate varied widely across the country.

Prices rose at a faster pace from the month before in all provinces except Ontario. At 2 per cent this province’s inflation rate was the lowest in the country, thanks to declines in homeowners’ replacement costs and natural gas prices. Nova Scotia, on the other hand, had the highest rate of inflation at 5 per cent, driven by higher prices for electricity and rent.

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Miles, 65, is looking to retire in the next three years but worries that his investments and Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security won’t be enough. A low-risk investor, he has accumulated over $1.1 million in various investment vehicles but all of it is in Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs), generating returns of about three per cent. Is his approach too conservative? Find out what the experts have to say.

Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors. Sign up here.

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com .

• An energy shock much bigger than the oil is brewing out there
• With new tariffs looming, small businesses fear the worst

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Canada’s inflation rate in July rose to three per cent from 2.8 per cent the month before as gasoline prices spiked, but economists say the Bank of Canada is likely to look past this latest reading.

Here’s what they say the data might mean for the economy and interest rates.

‘Nothing to worry about’: CIBC

The generally subdued readings for core inflation mean there’s no rush for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, said CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham. He said policymakers have plenty of time to assess oil price fluctuations, how the tariff situation plays out and whether the rebound in economic activity we are currently witnessing can be sustained.

The rate, driven by higher gasoline prices and airfares, shouldn’t be a concern to policymakers at the Bank of Canada, Grantham said.

He noted that the acceleration in July could be partly unwound next month, with Statistics Canada suggesting that there was still an impact from the World Cup on fares to the U.S. in July.

The headline reading was a tick higher than consensus expectations, Grantham said, and while there’s still plenty of uncertainty regarding future oil and gasoline price moves, so far average prices in August are tracking close to July’s level, which should see headline inflation hold at or close to July’s print.

“Nothing to worry about,” he wrote on a note on Monday. Grantham said continues to forecast no change in the overnight rate until around mid-2027.

Pockets of strength will prove temporary: Capital Economics

While core prices rose at their strongest pace in almost a year in July, the key drivers were temporary factors and the annual rate remained at the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target, said Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics.

“The key message therefore remains that a soft inflation backdrop is providing an effective counterbalance to stronger activity and labour market data with regards to the path for interest rates,” said Saunders.

He said “these pockets of strength” meant an average of the central bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures rose by 0.23 per cent in July – the strongest pace in almost a year. However, he said he doesn’t see cause for concern, given that most of the drivers will be temporary and the annual rate remained at the two per cent target.

Not too concerned: TD Economics

TD senior economist Leslie Preston said she expects the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures to drift a little bit above two per cent in the coming months as higher energy costs pass through to other prices in the economy.

“We aren’t too concerned that core inflation running slightly above two per cent should spook the BoC into raising interest rates,” said Preston, adding that the impact of travel on inflation should fade.

The Bank of Canada has noted that the country continues to deal with the confidence shock of on-again-off-again tariff threats from the U.S., she said. Given there is no deal yet to avert the 50-per-cent tariffs set to come into effect on Aug. 19 this remains a clear downside risk to Canada’s economy.

Inflation to stay high in 2026: Oxford Economics

Headline inflation will likely continue to hover around three per cent year-over-year for the rest of 2026 due to sticky oil prices and rising food inflation, said Michael Davenport, senior economist at Oxford Economics.

However, that excess slack in the economy and a further deceleration in shelter inflation will likely keep core inflation near the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target this year, allowing it to stay on the sidelines, he said.

Davenport said the renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran suggest that a prolonged stop-start conflict with fluctuating shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is now the most likely scenario. He added that he expects this to keep the price of Brent oil in the mid-US$80 per barrel range on average for the rest of this year before easing in 2027.

Not-so-friendly CPI data: Rosenberg

Economist David Rosenberg said the improvement on the Canadian inflation front “hit a pothole” in July, with all the key measures reaccelerating and coming in a tick above expectations.

“Nothing here for the Bank of Canada to get too excited about, but at the same time, numbers that will cause them to shift back to the prior hawkish tone if we see two or three more months of above-expected data like this, especially with the domestic economy having improved beyond expectations of late,” he said.

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Rosenberg said to a large extent, July’s inflation numbers were an energy story, and if you strip that out, inflation is running closer to 1.8 per cent than 3 and core, at 1.6 per cent rather than 1.9 per cent.

The Bank of Canada should take that as a sign that there is no real spread from energy to the rest of the pricing system, he said.

“I am sure that the bond bears and policy hawks on Bay Street will be howling that the BoC is behind some fictitious curve — my advice is to tune them out,” said Rosenberg.

• Email: dpaglinawan@postmedia.com