Michael's Telluride Film Blog

Early Returns from Cannes / Cousins New Doc Gets Distribution / Pics for Gentle Monster

2026-05-18T08:00:00.000-05:00

EARLY RETURNS FROM CANNES

Though we're only through the first few days of the Cannes International Film Festival, we're already seeing the emergence of some potential prize-winners for the fest. Here's the early version of the Screen Daily panel of critics:

SCREEN DAILY

As you can see the early films making a mark here are Pawlikowskis' Fatherland and Hamaguchi's all of a Sudden. Both films have been fairly consistently on the various lists I have posted since the Oscar ceremony and before. Meanwhile. Ioncinema's chart echoes the status of both Father land and All of a Sudden:

Meanwhile, we're awaiting a sufficient number of reviews to be accumulated at Cannes-ratings.org to truly make any assumption regarding where films are truly standing withe regard to that metric.

Couple of other notes here. Both Farhadi's Parallel Tales, Kore-eda's Sheep in a Box and Kruetzer's Gentle Monster seem on shaky ground as regards prizes at Cannes and perhaps as contenders for TFF #53.

COUSINS NEW DOCUMENTARY (ABOUT DOCUMENTARIES) GETS DISTRIBUTION

Telluride regular Marc Cousins (The Story of Film, A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things among several others) has garnered distribution for his next project: The Story of Documentary Film) Kino Lorber has nabbed the North American rights for the 16 part doc about docs.

The question as to its possible appearance at Telluride rises from its inclusion at Sundance earlier this year. My best guess is that owing to Cousins frequent presence at TFF and his current position as a Resident Curator and his past position on the fest's Board of Advisors. as well as being a TFF Tributee in 2022...my bet is we get some of the 16 episodes.

The story reagrding the Kino Lober acquisition is linked here from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/kino-lorber-mark-cousins-the-story-of-documentary-film-1236751389/

PICS FROM GENTLE MONSTER

Via The Playlist's 27 Most Anticipated Films from Cannes'

https://theplaylist.net/2026-cannes-film-festival-27-most-anticipated-films-20260511

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Cannes Is On / Awards Watch Oscar Predictions and TFF Clues / Bitter Christmas Teaser and Poster / Pics of Possibles from Cannes

2026-05-14T07:24:58.908-05:00

CANNES IS ON

The 79th Cannes Film Festival is officially underway in France. As is our habit here at MTFB, we will monitor the fest for the next two weeks looking at buzz, critical reception and ultimately prize winners to assess prospects for films to do the Cannes/Telluride Two Step.

As I have often mentioned, the link between the two film fests is quite strong with an average of 7ish or so films playing each year, first at Cannes and then later at Telluride.

I also tend to look at Cannes-ratings.org, Ioncinema and Screen daily for collections of critical responses. Last year nine films made the trans-Atlantic leap from France to Colorado. Here's where they stood critically at Cannes based on the Cannes-ratings.org site's 10 point system:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

The Secret Agent 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

A Private Life 5.90

The History of Sound 5.31

It's too early in the fest to start keeping tabs on the critical reactions but we may be able to begin to evaluate some of that in Monday's post.

AWARDS WATCH AND TFF CLUES

Erik Anderson has begun his annual updating list of predictions for Oscar '27 and I'm going through them for possible TFF titles. among the films that he lists as Best Picture possibilities, these are the ones that look most Telluride-friendly:

Fjord

Wild Horse Nine

Fatherland

The Social Reckoning

All of a Sudden

Sense and Sensibility

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Coward

Hope

Jack of Spades

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Saturn Return

Sweetsick

No One Cares (Jesse Eisenberg musical)

The complete set of predictions from Awards Watch are linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/2027-oscar-predictions-best-picture-and-best-director-may/

BITTER CHRISTMAS TEASER AND POSTER

Pedro Almodovar's Bitter Christmas is playing Cannes...and could be a Telluride player as well. In conjunction with its bow at Cannes, there is a poster and a teaser. Here they be:

And the teaser from Sony Pictures Classics and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PgPkSpuYpY&t=2s

PICS FROM POSSIBLES FROM CANNES:

***From Vanity Fair: Paper Tiger:

***From The Hollywood Reporter: Coward:

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Herzog and Cannes in 2026 / Tony Comes Off the List / Gaudagnino and Artificial Move to 2027

2026-05-11T08:43:00.001-05:00

HERZOG AND CANNES IN 2026

The confusion surrounding whether Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard might or might not screen at Cannes seems to have been cleared up. Variety has reported that the film was selected but not for Palme d'Or competition. That appears to have not sat well with the Herzog camp as they reportedly turned down the invitation.

Variety further reports that the impetus for that decision has to do with the eligibilty for Rooney and Kate Mara who play sisters in the film. From Variety:

"The reason that “Bucking Fastard” won’t be playing at that the Palais is that it wasn’t offered a Cannes competition slot. Herzog had hoped that stars Rooney and Kate Mara, who are said to give searing performances as twin sisters, would be eligible for awards, according to a source close to the filmmakers."

Open speculation is that Herzog will likely now premiere the film at Venice...which would still leave it positioned to make the TFF #53 lineup.

The complete story from Variety is linked here.

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/werner-herzog-bucking-fastard-turns-down-cannes-invite-1236741890/

TONY COMES OFF THE LIST

I had included Matt Johnson's Tony (sort of origin story for celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain starring Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) in the title role) on a couple of speculative lists for Telluride. That's moot now as we.ve seen that the film has been dated for release on August 7th.

GUADAGNINO AND ARTIFICIAL MOVE TO 2027

Another film that is probably off the list of TFF #53 possibles is Luca Guadagnino's Artificial. World of Reel reports that the film will be moving toa 2027 release primarily to avoid competing with Aaron Sorkin;s The Social Reckoning. Both films had been dated for Oct. 9th according to IMDB.

The story from WOR (and PageSixHollywood) reads:

"...Amazon/MGM has decided that “Artificial” won’t be released in the fall — instead it is now aiming for an early 2027 release because it “didn’t want the film to go up against [Aaron Sorkin’s] ‘The Social Network’ sequel,” which is set to release in October, given that the two films “share similar themes of cutthroat tech billionaires.”

The 2027 dating likely moves Artificial off the Telluride watch list.

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MTFB Is on Hiatus

2026-05-07T07:44:00.000-05:00

MTFB is on Hiatus. We'll return on Monday, May 11th.

Two Million Times / Collating You Didn't Know You Needed / Looks and Re-looks / No No Narnia

2026-05-04T08:00:00.015-05:00

TWO MILLION TIMES

MTFB blew past the two million view mark since the last post. The average views per post now is 818. That's a lot of reading...and writing. Thanks for taking a look...2,000,000 times.

COLLATING YOU DIDN'T KNOW YOU NEEDED

So, I went through the various lists that I have used to try to get a bead on TFF #53 including "Too Early" Oscar predictions, Cannes Speculation and ultimate choices, and "Most Anticipated" lists from the beginning of the year to get a sense of where my mind has been over the first four months of 2026 concerning potential TFF #53 films and here's what I discovered...

James Gray's Paper Tiger leads my take from all the different lists...not by much, but it is the film I have mentioned the most.

The next group all are close to Paper Tiger. Four films are grouped here:

Hamagichi's All of a Sudden, Guadagnino's Artificial, Inarritu's Digger and Munigiu's Fjord.

Weirdly, despite these four being the second most mentioned in my speculations I can't say any of them feel like a sure thing for TFF. And, of course, Warner Brothers has stated that Digger won't be doing any festivals much like Inarritu's The Revenant back in 2015).

The next group includes:

Almodovar's Bitter Christmas, Joel Coen's Jack of Spades, Farhadi's Parallel Tales and Kore-eda's Sheep in the Box.

And like the previous group, they all feel possible and none of them feel certain.

The final group has six films:

Herzog's Bucking Fastard, Pawlikowski's Fatherland, Sorkin's The Social Reckoning, McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine, Kwedar's Saturn Return and Harari's The Unknown.

I actually feel pretty good about Herzog and Pawlikowski. The other films in this group seem borderline possible.

Among the 18 other films that have appeared somewhere in m musings over the last four months, the most likely TFF candidates would appear to be:

The Long Winter (Haigh)

Coward (Dhont)

The Basics of Philosophy (Schrader)

As we begin the month of May we'll be paying particular attention to critical responses and ultimately the awards presentations out of Cannes which kicks off on May 12th and concludes May 23rd.

LOOKS AND RE-LOOKS

We have a clip from Oren Jacoby's This Is Not a Drill. The documentary screened at TFF #52. Here's the clip from YouTube and The Film Stage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQNqE6lUk7Q

Also, we have a teaser/trailer for Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales with subtitles. Also from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3BV9KeJzGM

MTFB had it last week but didn't have a subtitled version.

NO NO NARNIA

I have been rather whimsically including an occasional mention that Greta Gerwig's Narnia; The Magician's Nephew might be a TFF #53 selection. Admittedly, it seemed unlikely but entirely outside the realm of possibility given the frequent appearance of Ms. Gerwig and/or her partner, Noah Baumbach at TFF over the years. Additionally, the fact that the it's from Netflix doesn't hurt in as far as a possible TFF play is concerned.

But all of that has been laid to rest as the film has been re-dates for a 2027 release. The Hollywood Reporter, among many outlets reported this on Friday. From THR:

"Gerwig’s adaptation of the sixth book in the C.S. Lewis fantasy series, The Magician’s Nephew...will now be getting a release on Feb. 12, 2027 and then will hit on Netflix April 2, 2027. Sneak previews of the film will begin on Feb. 10, 2027, only in Imax."

I guess it's still possible in a far-fetched scenario, that the film could still screen at Telluride, but with a release now coming nearly six months later...probably not.

Here's the link to the complete Hollywood Reporter article.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/netflix-narnia-movie-greta-gerwig-release-date-1236581880/

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E. Jean Carroll Doc Drops a Trailer / The Lives of Others On Stage /

2026-04-30T08:00:00.001-05:00

E. JEAN CARROLL DOC, ASK E. JEAN, DROPS A TRAILER

Ask E. Jean, a documentary that screened as a part of TFF #52, has released a trailer. That release comes ahead of a May 22nd release date.

Here's the IMDb description:

"E. Jean Carroll won two lawsuits against Donald Trump for defamation and battery. Beyond that, she built a career as a successful magazine writer and authored one of America's longest-running advice columns."

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

SEE THE LIVES OF OTHERS ON STAGE...IN ENGLAND...THIS FALL

One of my favorite Telluride experiences was catching Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck's The Lives of Others back in 2006 at my very first TFF. Didn't know anything about it and thought it was great. The film would go on to win the 2007 Best Foreign Language Oscar.

Now comes news that there is a stage adaptation on its way. Both Variety and The Hollywood Report had the story this week.

Big names are involves to as it was announced that the play will star Keira Knightley, Stephen Dillane and Luke Thompson.

Plans are for the film to open in October and run until January 2027.

Here's the link to the Variety report.

https://variety.com/2026/theater/global/keira-knightley-luke-thompson-the-lives-of-others-play-1236732265/

And also to the story from The Hollywood Reporter.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/arts/keira-knightley-stephen-dillane-luke-thompson-play-west-end-1236580017/

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Mark Johnson's (The Awards Alchemist) First Oscar Stab (and Which Could Be at Telluride) / Titles and Rumors...AND I MEAN RUMORS!

2026-04-27T06:00:00.001-05:00

MARK JOHNSON'S (THE AWARDS ALCHEMIST) FIRST OSCAR STAB (AND WHICH OF THEM COULD BE AT TELLURIDE)

Mark Johnson who is housed at Awards Watch as "The Awards Alchemist" has posted his first look at predicting Oscar nominees for Best Picture for the 2026 run of films. MTFB analyzes his list and names "possible" TFF #53 selections. Today I'll also add for each, the biggest reason I think each of them could play TFF. Here's what that looks like:

*Wild Horse Nine (dir: McDonagh)...Best hint it plays: From Searchlight.

*Digger (dir:Inarritu)...Hint: Inarritu ( a reminder, this film has been reported to not play ANY fall fest).

*Saturn Return (dir: Kwedar)...Hint: From Netflix.

*Fjord (dir: Munigu) Hint: Cannes Selection and it's from NEON.

*The Social Reckoning (dir: Sorkin) Hint: I'm wishful thinking here. If it means anything, three major cast members have been recent TFF attendees: Jeremy Strong, Mikey Madison and Jeremy Allen White.

*Fatherland (was titled 1949 for a long time) (dir: Pawlikowski) Hint: Cannes Selection, Pawlikoski

and it's from MUBI.

*All of a Sudden (dir: Hamaguchi) Hint: Cannes Selection and from NEON.

*Jack of Spades (dir: J. Coen) Hint: Coen. sort of...mostly me wishing again.

*Bucking Fastard (dir: Herzog) Hint: Herzog.

*Narnia: The Magician's Nephew (dir: Gerwig) Hints: Gerwig and it's from Netflix.

*Behemoth! (dir: Gilroy) Hint: from Searchlight.

*Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical (dir: Eisenberg) Hints: Eisenberg and from A24.

*I Am Rocky (dir: Farrelly) Hint: From Amazon-MGM.

*Artificial (dir: Guadagnino) Hints: Guadagnino and from Amazon-MGM

*A Long Winter (dir: Haigh) Hints; Haigh and from MUBI.

*Paper Tiger (dir: Gray) Hints: Cannes Selection, Gray and from NEON.

*Being Heumann (dir: Heder) Hint: from Apple.

*Clarissa (dir: Esiri and Esiri) hint: from NEON.

*Tony (dir: Johnson) Hint: from A24.

*Parallel Tales (dir: Farhadi) Hints: Cannes Selectionand Farhadi.

*Bitter Christmas (dir: Almodovar) Hints: Cannes Selection, Almodovar and it's from SPC.

Here's the link to the complete list from Mark at Awards Watch.

https://awardswatch.com/2027-oscar-predictions-the-awards-alchemists-first-look-at-the-99th-academy-awards/

TITLES AND RUMORS...AND I MEAN RUMORS!

Spooking around the interwebs seeing fall film/Telluride speculation that mentions:

Danny Boyle's Ink

Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter

Ink is supposedly a 2027 release...sooo....

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Paper Tiger (and Others) Announced for Cannes / Meanwhile...Herzog NOT Cannes Bound / The Story That Won't End

2026-04-23T08:00:00.001-05:00

PAPER TIGER (AND OTHERS) ANNOUNCED FOR CANNES

Adam Driver on the set of Paper Tiger

As expected, the Cannes Film Festival added a number of films to several different sections on Wednesday. Most notable is the addition of James Gray's Paper Tiger to the Palme d'Or competition. That addition had been widely expected.

14 other films were added to various sections but, at first blush, none of those jumps out as a TFF #53 candidate. Of them, Diego Luna's Ashes, added as a Special Screening, intrigues me the most and if I had to point at one other film beyond Paper Tiger that could be in play for a Labor Day date in Telluride, that would be it.

Additionally, Variety reported yesterday that Paper Tiger has been acquired by NEON for North American distribution. NEON has been on tear in recent years as far as the Palme d'Or competition, winning every one since Parasite. The NEON acquisition doesn't hurt the film's chances of a TFF screening. Gray's last film, Armageddon Time, played TFF in 2022.

There are two articles from Variety from yesterday:

Variety article #1

https://variety.com/2026/film/festivals/cannes-victorian-psycho-maika-monroe-1236727917/

Variety article #2

https://variety.com/2026/film/festivals/james-gray-paper-tiger-johansson-driver-cannes-neon-1236727770/

MEANWHILE...HERZOG NOT CANNES BOUND

Per World of Reel, earlier reporting that Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard was headed to the Premiere section at Cannes haven't proven out. Purportedly yesterday's Cannes announcement completes the films for all sections. Herzog's film was not among them.

In WOR's story from yesterday:

"Notably absent is Werner Herzog, whose “Bucking Fastard” came very close to entering the official competition but was ultimately offered a slot in the Cannes Premiere section — it now looks like the film will be headed to Venice in September."

The possible inclusion of Bucking Fastard at Venice certainly doesn't preclude its possible selection for TFF #53.

The complete World of Reel story is here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/4/22/cannes-2026-adds-16-titles-including-zachary-wigons-victorian-psycho-no-werner-herzog

THE STORY THAT WON'T END

You all remember the strife that the fest had in its efforts to eventually secure and screen the Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace in 2019.

In 2022 director Adam Elliott brought suit against distributor NEON focused on claims of breach of contract and fraud.

You can find the details in this story from The Hollywood Reporter.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/neon-lawsuit-film-accounting-1236560710

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Digger Not Digging??? / Parallel Tales Trailer

2026-04-20T11:30:00.003-05:00

DIGGER NOT DIGGING???

Deadline reported last week that Alejandro G. Inarritu's hotly anticipated Digger starring Tom Cruise may not play any festival at all. The context for this was the presentation for the film at Cinemacon last week.

Of course, we know that Digger is not playing Cannes but with its announced Oct. 2nd release date many assumed (me included) that a Venice bow was in play followed (I would have thought) by a TFF #53 North American Premiere. Warner Bros. seems to have poured cold water on the notion. From Deadline:

"EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros and Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Tom Cruise starrer Digger, which wowed at CinemaCon on Tuesday, is unlikely to debut at a fall festival, we can reveal.

The film’s October 2 release date has led to speculation, and anticipation, in many quarters that Venice or another fall festival would be in the cards. Six of Iñárritu’s seven films have premiered at either Cannes or Venice. However, according to multiple well-placed sources, that’s not the current plan. Of course, things can change, but at the moment, we hear that’s how the land lies.

Warner Bros and Legendary declined comment."

I suppose the "escape hatch" is the phrasing "that’s not the current plan. Of course, things can change," that leaves some wiggle room for something to change.

Honestly, I think the film could still make an appearance at Telluride. Inarritu has screened Babel, Biutiful, Birdman and Bardo at T-ride. The history/connection there is deep. In a normal year, Digger might have appeared at the top of my annual "Ten Bets" first take for Telluride in June. That will change now...but...I may still include the film somewhere in that initial Top Ten Bets.

For hoots...here's the current teaser from Digger from Warner Bros. and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=digger+teaser+official

Stay tuned.

PARALLEL TALES TRAILER

Prior to its screening at Cannes, a trailer for Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales ha s been released. The trailer is in French so those of you who can speak/translate...here you go. For those of us who cannot...it's still an interesting glimpse at what the film will be. Here it is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuLiRIkVkw

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Cannes Director's Fortnight Announced / NEON Grabs Hope / Tony May Be Late

2026-04-16T07:25:00.000-05:00

CANNES DIRECTOR'S FORTNIGHT ANNOUNCED

The Director's Fortnight Section of the 79th Cannes Film Festival has been announced. That information was released on Tuesday. Taking a quick look at the titles, the only film that jumps out as a possibility for TFF #53 is Kantemir Balagov's Butterfly Jam. Balagov was at Telluride in 2029 with Beanpole. I will say that Reed van Dyk's Atonement sounds interesting and might be worth keeping an eye on.

Butterfly Jam (Kantemir Balagov)***

9 Temples To Heaven (Sompot Chidgasornpongse)

Atonement (Reed Van Dyk)

Clarissa (Arie Esiri & Chuko Esiri)

Death has no master (Jorge Thielen Armand)

The Diary of a Chambermaid (Radu Jude)

Dora (July Jung)

La libertad doble (Lisandro Alonso)

Gabin (Maxence Voiseux)

I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning (Clio Barnard)

Low Expectations (Eivind Landsvik)

Once Upon A Time In Harlem (David Greaves)

La Perra (Dominga Sotomayor)

Shana (Lila Pinell)

Thanks for Coming (Merci d’être venu) (Alain Cavalier)

l’Espèce Explosive (Sarah Arnold)

Viva Carmen (Sebastian Laundenbach)

We Are Aliens (Kohei Kadowaki)

Le Vertige (Quentin Dupieux)

NEOIN GRABS HOPE

Reports that distributor NEON, which has a run of six straight films winning Cannes' Palme d'Or, has picked up U.S. distribution for Na Hong-jon's Hope. The film stars Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander. The acquisition makes me think that NEON thinks it could be a player when awards are handed out at the of Cannes. That's enough to make me think it might be a consideration for TFF.

The IMDb's description goes like this:

"A mysterious discovery is made on the outskirts of the remote harbor town. The residents find themselves in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before."

NEON's Palme run has included: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, Anora and It Was Just an Accident. All but Titane and Triangle of Sadness subsequently played at Telluride.

TONY MAY BE LATE

I have had Matt Johnson's Tony on the periphery of my lists of "maybe" films for TFF #53 but I might have to re-calculate as World of Reel reports that the film is headed for reshoots beginning as early as next week.

Tony is based on a real episode from the life of legendary chef Anthony Bourdain. Bourdain os being played by "The Holdovers" breakout Dominic Sessa. Plans apparently are for the film to be available for fall festival time even with the additional filming schedule to take place now.

The complete World of Reel article is linked here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/4/12/a24s-tony-matt-johnsons-anthony-bourdain-biopic-heads-to-reshoots-this-month

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Cannes Extended / Digger Teaser / Peter Asher Trailer

2026-04-13T07:34:00.222-05:00

CANNES EXTENDED

We know that Cannes has announced a good deal of their lineup and in MTFB's last post, we looked at a number of those films that have already been announced as possible players for TFF #53. But there are some films still left to be unveiled for Cannes and that's what we're focusing on today.

Initially, James Gray's Paper Tiger and Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard are both probably going to be added to the lineup. Multiple sources have been reporting that over the weekend. Both films would be possible candidates for Telluride and that's true regardless of whether they chosen for Cannes inclusion.

The best intell right now suggests that Paper Tiger would likely be added to the Palme d'Or competition slate and that Herzog's film may appear in the Cannes Premieres section.

Additionally, there is some reporting that a couple of TFF #53 film possibilities may be the Director's Fortnight portion of the fest. I'm referring to Kantemir Balagov's Butterfly Jam and Hirokazu Kore-eda's Look Back. Kore-eda is already set for the Palme competition lineup with Sheep in the Box.

Here are links to a number of sources regarding adding titles to Cannes:

Awards Watch's Erik Anderson.

World of Reel

World of Reel-Bucking Fastard

World of Reel-Director's Fortnight

DIGGER TEASER

Thanks to Alex Billington and First Showing, I was reminded that we have a teaser for Alejandro Inarritu's Digger from Warner Brothers. Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd21PhsDHww

PETER ASHER TRAILER

And just out, a trailer for the Peter Asher documentary that played TFF #52. Everywhere Man: The Life and times of Peter Asher is from directors Daniel Geller and Diana Goldfine. It will be in theaters on June 19th. Here's the trailer from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIpHwQ94WvY

Here's the poster also:

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Cannes Announces / Photos from Cannes' Selections

2026-04-09T07:56:00.000-05:00

CANNES ANNOUNCES

The field of films for the 79th Cannes Film Festival have been announced. This is important because history tells us that it's highly likely that 6-8 of these films (mostly from the Palme d'Or competition category) will be selected/invited to play at TFF #53 this fall. Here, from Next Best Picture, are the fils that were announced this morning (films that I think have are the most likely for Telluride are indictaed with ***):

COMPETITION

"The Electric Kiss" (dir. Pierre Salvadori) Opening Night film.

“All Of A Sudden” (dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi)***

“The Beloved” (dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen)

“Bitter Christmas” (dir. Pedro Almodóvar)***

“The Black Ball” (dir. Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)

“Coward” (dir. Lukas Dhont)***

“The Dreamed Adventure” (dir. Valeska Grisebac)

“Fatherland” (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski)*** (previously titled 1949)

“Fjord” (dir Cristian Mungiu)***

“Garance” (dir. Jeanne Herry)

“Gentle Monster” (dir. Marie Kreutzer)***

“Hope” (dir. Na Hong-Jin)

“The Man I Love” (dir. Ira Sachs)

“Minotaur” (dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

“Moulin” (dir. Laszlo Nemes)***

“Nagi Notes” (dir. Kôji Fukada)

“Notre Salut” (dir. Emmanuel Marre)

“Parallel Stories” (dir. Asghar Farhadi)***

“Sheep in the Box” (dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda)***

“Stories Of The Night” (dir. Lea Mysius)

“The Unknown” (dir. Arthur Harari)***

“A Woman’s Life” (dir. Charline Bourgeois-Taquet)

UN CERTAIN REGARD

“Club Kid” (dir. Jordan Firstman)

“Congo Boy” (dir. Rafiki Fariala)

“Elephants in the Fog” (dir. Abinash Bikram Shah)

“Everytime” (dir. Sandra Wollner)

“I Am Always Your Maternal Animal” (dir. Valentina Maurel)

“I’ll Be Gone in June” (dir. Katharina Rivilis)

“Le Corset” (dir. Louis Clichy)

“The Meltdown” (dir. Manuela Martelli)

“Strawberries” (dir. Laïla Marrakchi)

“Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” (dir. Jane Schoenbrun)

“Yesterday the Eye Didn’t Sleep” (dir. Rakan Mayasi)

OUT OF COMPETITION

“De Gaulle: L’Age de Fer” (dir. Antonin Baudry)

“Diamond” (dir. Andy Garcia)

“The Electric Kiss” (dir. Pierre Salvadori)

“Her Private Hell” (dir. Nicolas Winding Refn)

“Karma” (dir. Guillaume Canet)

“L’Abandon” (dir. Vincent Garenq)

“L’Objet Du Delit” (dir. Agnes Jaoui)

MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS

“Colony” (dir. Yeon Sang-ho)

“Full Phil” (dir. Quentin Dupieux)

“Jim Queen and the Quest for Chloroqueer” (dir. Nicolas Athane and Marco Nguyen)

“Roma Elastica” (dir. Bertrand Mandico)

“Sanguine” (dir. Marion Le Coroller)

SPECIAL SCREENINGS

“Avedon” (dir. Ron Howard)

“John Lennon: The Last Interview” (dir. Steven Soderbergh)

“Les Matins Merveilleux” (dir. Avril Besson)

“Les Survivants du Che” (dir. Christophe Réveille)

CANNES PREMIERE

“Heimsuchung” (dir. Volker Schlondorff)***

“Kokurojo: The Samurai and the Prisoner” (dir. Kiyoshi Kurosawa)

“Propeller One-Way Night Coach” (dir. John Travolta)

“The Third Night” (dir. Daniel Auteuil)

PHOTOS FROM CANNES' SELECTIONS

COWARD

FATHERLAND (1949)

VISITATION

FJORD

ALL OF A SUDDEN

MINOTAUR

THE UNKNOWN

According to Cannes head Thierry Fremaux per Next Best Picture, the lineup is 95% complete so other films will be added in the coming days. So, films like Herzog' Bucking Fastard and Gray's Paper Tiger could still have their World Premiere next month in France.

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A Week Until Cannes Announces-Updates on Possible TFF Films

2026-04-02T08:00:00.001-05:00

A WEEK UNTIL CANNES ANNOUNCES-UPDATES AND POSSIBLE TFF FILMS

With a week left until the Cannes Film Festival announces the bulk of its 2026 lineup...MTFB is laser focused on the titles that will be announced and their potential as possible choices for TFF #53. To remind readers, the two fests commonly share about 6-8 titles every year. Last year such films as Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, The History of Sound, Nouvelle Vague, It Was Just an Accident, The Mastermind, Urchin, A Private Life and Pillion screened in France and then appeared in Telluride for TFF #52.

Recently Ioncinema posted two separate pieces focused on what might play at Cannes. I have combined both to consolidate this list of TFF possibilities:

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Butterfly Jam/Balagov***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kreutzer

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

The first Ioncinema piece is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-cannes-film-festival-predictions-palme-dor-part-1

The second Ioncinema piece is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-cannes-film-festival-predictions-golden-palme-dor

Meanwhile, Jordan Ruimy has updated his Cannes predictions as of last Monday. His latest assessment includes what I think could be TFF titles:

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kruetzer

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Here's Jordan's update.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/3/30/variety-james-grays-paper-tiger-and-jane-schoenbruns-sex-and-death-at-camp-miasma-to-premiere-at-cannes

We'll know more next Thursday.

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Another Look at Early Oscar Possibles and TFF/ Cannes Speculation from Deadline

2026-03-30T08:00:00.001-05:00

ANOTHER LOOK AT OSCAR POSSIBLES AND TFF

As we march closer to the official announcement of films playing the Cannes Film Fest (see below), MTFB continues looking at really early Oscar predictions from a number Oscarologists to they to at least begin creating a list of possibilities for TFF #53. Today we focus on Joey Magidson's Awards Radar. Magidson posted his list of 25 possible Best Picture nominees. From that list I culled the following as possible Telluride (*** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

Behemoth!/T. Gilroy/Searchlight

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Clarissa/Erisi/NEON

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

I Play Rocky/P. Farrelly/Nov. 20th/Amazon-MGM

Jack of Spades/J. Coen***

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

A Place in Hell/Dumont/NEON

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

The Social Reckoning/Sorkin/Oct. 9th/Sony Pictures

Tony/M. Johnson/A24

The Uprising/Greengrass/Focus Features

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

The complete list of 25 films from awards Radar is here.

https://awardsradar.com/best-picture/

CANNES SPECULATION FROM DEADLINE

A couple of weeks back Deadline.com posted a large piece about possible Cannes films. MTFB continues to watch those lists for clues to films that could do the Cannes/Telluride Two-Step. From that Deadline piece, here are some films that could play both places:

1949/Pawlikowski

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kreutzer

Hombre al Agua/Bernal***

A Long Winter/Haigh

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

The full list from Deadline is linked here.
https://deadline.com/2026/03/cannes-2026-predictions-whats-international-mix-1236751075/

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Variety's Early Oscar Picture / News from Cannes / Insight for Bucking Fastard

2026-03-26T07:00:00.001-05:00

VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR PICTURE

MTFB continues to take a peek at early Best Picture Oscar prognostications for TFF #53 clues. Today it's Clayton Davis from Variety. From his March 19th article, here are my best guesses for what among them might make it to southwest Colorado (with director, release date and distributor, if known. *** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Clarissa/Erisi/NEON

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Here Comes the Flood/Meirelles***/Netflix

A Long Winter/Haigh***/MUBI

Musk/Gibney/Bleeker Street

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Primetime/Oppenheim/A24

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Project/Eisenberg***/Dec. 3rd/A24

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

Check out the entire Variety set of predictions here,

https://variety.com/lists/2027-oscars-predictions/documentary-feature-9/

NEWS FROM CANNES

We're keeping close tabs on what's what regarding possible films at Cannes that may then proceed across the Atlantic to T-ride. Jordan Ruimy updated some of his speculation on Tuesday.

First a re-cap of what we've passed on here at MTFB:

Our last list from World of Reel based on Ruimy's earlier post re: Cannes:

Predicted Cannes Competition titles that might play TFF #53:

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar

Fjord/Mungiu

Jack of Spades/Coen

Minotaur/Zvyaginstev

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Bagalov

"Possibilities"

The Long Winter/Haigh

Let Love In/Van Groeningen

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

"French Contenders"

Moulin/Nemes

Among titles that Ruimy says are now "unlikely: for Cannes but that could still make a Telluride play:

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Untitled Mike Leigh Film

Digger/Inarritu

And the Screen Daily list we put up here on Monday:

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Paper Tiger/Gray***

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Coward/Dhont***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

And here's what Ruimy is saying as of Tuesday's post:

Pawlikowski's 1949 was OUT but now may be back IN...it's about whether post-production can be finished. Ruimy's tone makes me think it's likely IN.

OUT: Coward and The Way of the Wind.

Probably IN: All of a Sudden and Minotaur. Bitter Christmas looks likely too.

James Gray's Paper Tiger which was a possible no-show now seems to be a "Maybe":

Here's the latest from World of Reel.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/3/18/cannes

INSIGHT FOR BUCKING FASTARD

Kate Mara made an appearance on Late Nigh with Seth Meyers last week and the program posted part of that conversation on their X account focused on the upcoming Bucking Fastard directed by Werner Herzog. The clip is kind of entertaining. The discussion begins at the 5:41 mark:

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Looking at "Too Early" Oscar Predictions for Clues / And What About Cannes?...Screen Daily

2026-03-23T07:21:00.002-05:00

LOOKING AT "TOO EARLY" OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR CLUES

As I have mentioned...it's time to turn our attention more fully to TFF #53. One way to sort of begin to make a list is to look at what the Oscarologists think might be films in play for Oscar #99. To that end, I'm looking at the first picks from Matt Neglia and Next Best Picture. They posted on March 18th. From their list, here are what I feel like the most likely contenders are for Telluride (with director, release date and distributor, if known. (*** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

At the Sea/Mundruczo (played Berlin)

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Here Comes the Flood/Meirelles***/Netflix

Jack of Spades/J. Coen***

Look Back/Kore-eda***

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Project/Eisenberg***/Dec. 3rd/A24

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

Next Best Picture's complete list is here.

AND WHAT ABOUT CANNES?...SCREEN DAILY

I'm also continuing speculation about what might be announced for Cannes on April 9th and looking for signs of films that might complete the Cannes to Telluride double play. From Screen Daily on March 13th. The titles in the article are generally listed geographically. Films are listed with director, release date and distributor, if known. *** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry:

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Paper Tiger/Gray***

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Coward/Dhont***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Screen Daily's complete post is linked here.

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Now...Down to Business / Latest Cannes Speculation from World of Reel

2026-03-19T07:56:00.000-05:00

NOW ...DOWN TO BUSINESS

Oscar has come a gone...finally. Lot's of discourse now about the Oscar season being too long this year. I kind of have to agree.

MTFB is ready to move on to the primary effort for this space...noodling possible titles for TFF #53. That process has been lightly touched on since the turn of the calendar from 2025 to 2026 with a couple of looks at various "Most Anticipated" list of film for this year. We have also taken a snapshot of possible Cannes titles as the venerable French fest frequently is represented at Telluride often with six to eight titles.

As we move into this phase I have found looking at the "Too Early" Oscar predictions for the year to be useful as a predicting tool. I checked last year and that Oscar spec yielded up to seven films that eventually ended up on the TFF #52 lineup. We'll also continue to monitor the potential Cannes field until that announcement comes on April 9th. The fest itself will run May 12-23.

LATEST CANNES SPECULATION FROM WORLD OF REEL

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel keeps a really good eye on the buzz concerning which films will premiere as part of the Cannes Film Festival. That's good for us as, on average, six to eight Cannes titles traditionally make their way to Telluride.

Consequently, we put our ear to the ground to his latest Cannes speculation piece posted on March 11th.

From his various sections, here are what seem to me the most probable candidates to play both Cannes and then T-ride:

Predicted Cannes Competition titles that might play TFF #53:

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar

Fjord/Mungiu

Jack of Spades/Coen

Minotaur/Zvyaginstev

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Bagalov

"Possibilities"

The Long Winter/Haigh

Let Love In/Van Groeningen

Bucking Fastards/Herzog

"French Contenders"

Moulin/Nemes

Among titles that Ruimy says are now "unlikely: for Cannes but that could still make a Telluride play:

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Untitled Mike Leigh Film

Digger/Inarritu

The complete World of Reel list is here.

I'll take a look at early Oscar predictions in Monday's post.

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Oscar 2026 and TFF

2026-03-16T09:05:00.003-05:00

OSCAR 2026 AND TFF

Just a brief TFF check this morning post-Oscar.

TELLURIDE FILMS EARN SEVEN OSCARS

Guillermo Del Toro's was the most honored film that played Telluride last Labor Day with three wins last night: Best Production Design, Best Makeup/Hair Design and Best Costume design.

Four other TFF films won single Oscars:

Hamnet: Best Actress-Jesse Buckley

Sentimental Value (Norway): Best International Feature

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short

Two People Exchanging Saliva: Best Live Action Short (in a tie, unbelievably, with The Singers)

OVERALL

One Battle After Another was the big winner of the evening with six Oscars: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Sean Penn) Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Casting.

Sinners was next with four wins: Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

Frankenstein with three...listed above

K-pop Demon Hunters with two: Best Animated Feature, Original Song

Single wins for:

Hamnet, Sentimental Value, All the Empty Rooms and Two People Exchanging Saliva listed above. And...

Weapons: Best Supporting Actress; Amy Madigan

Mr. Nobody Against Putin: Best Documentary Feature

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Best Visual Effects

F1: Sound

The Singers: Best Live Action Short (tie)

AND THE BLOG...

2026 might have been my best year for predicting ever. 20.5 (that's how I'm counting the Live Action tie) out of 24 categories for a 85.4% accuracy rate. I missed Best Casting, Documentary Feature and Cinematography. And in each of those three categories, I had the winner listed as the "Could Be".

In as far as where I would have ended up with regard to comparison with Gold Derby's Experts... Well, they counted an answer of either Two People or The Singers as fully correct. Using that same metric I would have tied their experts for the top spot. They counted those as 87.5% accurate. Had I been listed I would have tied with Mark Johnson (Awards Watch and The Contending), Tomris Laffly (Freelance), Gregory Ellwood (The Playist), Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter) and Pete Hammond (Deadline).

Here's the link to The Gold Derby results.

Again, for the third year...Gold Derby...I'm awaiting my invitation to join your crew of experts for next year.

Now...onto puzzling out the 2026 version of Telluride. For those who are curious, for whatever reasons, I am planning to be in The Ride for the festival again this year.

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Oscar Sunday: MTFB Final Predictions

2026-03-15T10:27:00.000-05:00

OSCAR SUNDAY: MTFB FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here we are hours away from the opening of the envelopes as Oscar season 2025-26 comes to an end tonight. Here are the final predictions from MTFB. Good luck in your Oscar pool! TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Girl who Cried Pearls

Could be: Butterfly

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: All the Empty Rooms

Could be: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of of Brent Renaud

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Could Be: The Singers

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could be: Sinners

SOUND

Winner: F1

Could be: Sinners

MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

EDITING

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: F1

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

ORIGNAL SONG

Winner: Golden/K-Pop Demond Hunters

Could be: I Lied to You/Sinners

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: Sentimental Value

Could be: The Secret Agent

UPSET SPECIAL: The Secret Agent

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winners; The Perfect Neighbor

Could be: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Could be: Zootopia 2

BEST CASTING

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Hamnet

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Sinners

Could be: Sentimental Value or It Was Just and Accident

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Could be: Delroy Lindo/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Literally anyone nominated could win!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Could be: Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another or Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Any one of these three could be the winner.

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Could be: Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

UPSET SPECIAL: Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Could be: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You

BEST DIRECTION:

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

Could Be: Ryan Coogler/Sinners

BEST PICTURE

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Hamnet

Predicted TFF Oscar Winners: Total: 7.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hair

Hamnet (1): Best Actress (Buckley)

International Feature (1): Sentimental Value

Documentary Short (1): All the Empty Rooms

Live Action Short (1): Two People Exchanging Saliva

MTFB will have a look at the results of tonight's Oscar ceremony tomorrow in the regular post.

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It's Almost Oscar Time: Eight Feature Categories That Might Be Your Oscar Pool Busters

2026-03-12T08:43:00.001-05:00

IT'S ALMOST OSCAR TIME: EIGHT FEATURE CATEGORIES THE MIGHT BE YOUR OSCAR POOL BUSTERS

Hi there on a Pre-Oscar Thursday...

We're taking a look today at what seem to me to be the tightest eight feature categories heading into Oscar night.

EDITING

One Battle After Another seems is pretty solid shape here but a win for F1 is still possible and Sinners isn't completely out of the picture.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

This category was jumping as Oscar voting came to an end. OBAA is my pick (currently-it could change by Sunday morning). Sinners and Train Dreams are serious contenders.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

For months this has seemed like a slam dunk for Sentimental Value and it still seems to be the favorite but The Secret Agent is also strong. Could Brazil upend Norway? Yup, it could happen.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This has burgeoned into a three headed contest with Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (OBAA) and, of late Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) all viable candidates. Right now MTFB has Madigan winning...but...

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Maybe the most fluid of all 24 categories. Stellan Skarsgard has felt like the leader almost all season but recent events (BAFTA, SAG) have pushed Sean Penn back to the top of the leaderboard. Delroy Lindo has also experienced a burst of support. Honestly, any of the five nominees could win the thing Sunday. I have Penn...currently.

LEAD ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet has been riding at the top of the Oscar predictions charts for Lead Actor for months...now, maybe not so much. Chalamet is facing some headwinds for comments he's made and. perhaps his general demeanor as he has moved through Oscar season. Benefitting? It would seem Sinners' Michael B. Jordan. The race here could really come down to early Oscar voters vs. later Oscar voters. And, as a side note, if I was going to pack a category to bet a little and win a lot it would be to wager on Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

DIRECTION

A two man race here between PTA for OBAA and Ryan Coogler for Sinners. Currently MTFB has Anderson winning. Will the director's trophy point to Best Picture or will there be a split?

PICTURE

One Battle After Another has been perceived as the leader here for most of the season but Sinners win for Ensemble at SAG/Aftra suggest that the biggest branch of the Academy loves the film. From what I can see, it's tight.

These eight categories plus the always unpredictable Shorts categories probably decide who has bragging rights on Monday morning.

MTFB is currently predicting TFF films winning:

Hamnet: Buckley/Actress

Sentimental Value: International Feature

Frankenstein: Makeup/Hair, Costume Design, Production Design

Shorts: All the Empty Rooms (Doc Short), Two People Exchanging Saliva (Live Action Short)

Final thoughts/predictions coming for all 24 categories on Sunday morning.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Seven Craft Categories / Predictions for Shorts Categories

2026-03-10T11:17:00.004-05:00

Well, better a day late than never. Here's what would have been yesterday's post if I weren't on the road.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SEVEN CRAFT CATEGORIES

TFF films indicated in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) One Battle After Another (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4)

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

PREDICITONS FOR SHORTS CATEGORIES

ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2) Butterfly

2) Retirement Plan

4) The Three Sisters

5) Forevergreen

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3) The Devil Is Busy

4) Children No More: Were and Gone

5) Perfectly a Strangeness

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) The Singers

3) A Friend of Dorothy

4) Butcher's Stain

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

This and That: Cinematography and editing are up in the air. If MTFB's predictions are correct TFF films win two of the three shorts categories.

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2

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MTFB Oscar Update: Next to Last Predix for Oscar's Middle Six / Visitations: Jesse Buckley, Ethan Hawke and More

2026-03-05T07:28:00.000-06:00

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: NEXT TO LAST PREDIX FOR OSCARS MIDDLE SIX

The latest predictions from MTFB for Casting, International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Marty Supreme (3)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (4)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (5)

3) The Alabama Solution (2)

4) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

5) Cutting Through Rocks (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Huge movement for Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Small adjustments in casting, Animated Feature and Original Song.

VISITATIONS

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fwxuEWxSpI

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/jessie-buckley-why-hamnet-isnt-grief-porn-1236564879/

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/ethan-hawke-blue-moon-linklater-before-movie-1236551849/

Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQpi055nXVQ

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Penultimate Predix for the Big Eight Categories/ PGA and The Sag/Aftra Awards / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Visitations: Trier and Herzog

2026-03-02T07:49:00.001-06:00

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE PREDIX FOR THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Train Dreams (9)

9) Bugonia (8)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (4)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

3) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

4) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

5) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and That:

*Supporting Actor is all over the place now.

*Supporting Actress is also very unsettled.

*Best Picture and Actor are also a bit unsettled as we move into the last couple of weeks prior to Oscar night on Mar. 15. *

Look out for Wagner Moura in the Best Actor race.

PGA AND THE "ACTOR" AWARDS

One Battle After Another won the Producers' Guild top prize on Saturday night seemingly sealing it for the Best Picture Oscar. Meanwhile at the SAG/Aftra's Actor Awards on Sunday night:

Ensemble: Sinners

Female Lead: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Male Lead: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Female Supporting: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Male Supporting: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Stunt Ensemble: Mission Impossible: The Fina Reckoning

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

VISITATIONS

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from THR's Awards Chatter Podcast.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/awards-chatter-pod-joachim-trier-sentimental-value-1236517803/

Werner Herzog for Ghost Elephants from The Film Stage.

https://thefilmstage.com/werner-herzog-on-dreams-defeats-ghost-elephants-and-why-hes-not-a-workaholic/

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Predix: Second Wave for Seven Remaining Categories / Hamlet Trailer / Visitations: Jesse Buckley and Nina Gold

2026-02-26T11:35:00.004-06:00

MTFB OSCAR PREDIX: SECOND WAVE FOR SEVEN REMAINING CATEGORIES

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4)

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (5)

5) Frankenstein (4)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (3)

3) F1 (2)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

This and That: Cinematography and Editing have tightened considerably with Cinematography now the biggest toss-up. Minor movement also in Makeup/Hair, Sound and Visual Effects.

HAMLET TRAILER

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv2iYGYSUtY

VSITATIONS

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from The Hollywood Reporters' Awards Chatter Podcast.

Casting Director Nina Gold for Hamnet from The Playlist.

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Predix: Round Two of the Middle Six Categories / TFF #52 and BAFTA

2026-02-23T08:00:00.001-06:00

MTFB OSCAR PREDIX: ROUND TWO OF THE MIDDLE SIX CATEGORIES

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

4) Arco (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) The Alabama Solution (2)

3) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

4) Cutting Through Rocks (5)

5) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Frankenstein (3)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Small movements in Documentary, Score and Song in an other wise static set of six categories.

TFF #52 AND BAFTA

TFF #52 films nabbed six BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) Awards yesterday led by Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein with three wins in craft categories: Productions Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair. Chloe Zhao's Hamnet made a bit of a splash with two wins: Best Actress for Jesse Buckley as well as Outstanding British Film. Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value won the BAFTA for Best Film Not in the English Language.

Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another led all films with six wins: Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actor (Penn), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing. OBAA now seems virtually unbeatable for the Oscar for Best Picture.

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

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If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com