Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis

SPX Update: Things to Watch

2026-04-22T03:14:00.003-10:00

The market finally gave a little bit of its recent gains back, but so far has held the melt-up channel, closing right on the lower boundary:

Near-term, there are three main options:

Basically, if SPX bounces (open suggests it will) but FAILS to reclaim the red B/2 high (second chart), then reverses and sustains a breakdown below the C/(i) low (which will also break the melt-up channel), bulls should probably get very cautious. A sustained breakdown there would not only open up the possibility of a decline toward the 6800s, it would open up the possibility of the BIG expanded flat on the first chart that takes us back below 6300.

If none of that happens and SPX goes on to make a new high, bulls could be okay (for as long as that lasts), but should still stay alert for future breaks of the green melt-up channel. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: The Value of Melt-Up Channels

2026-04-20T03:17:00.002-10:00

SPX continued its insane rally on Friday, although futures are indicated a minor gap down for Monday's open. Just like last time, that gap down won't mean anything unless bears can sustain a breakdown of the green melt-up channel.

Note that SPX has rallied more than 300 points since I first drew that channel. That's the value of using channels like this -- you avoid exiting longs too early and you don't even consider shorts when the market is inside an obvious channel (just like you don't consider longs when the market is still inside a crash channel).

Longer-term, we're still about 10 days out from the end of the month, but it's worth considering (granted: early and things could still change) that if this monthly candle holds, it would be a bullish signal:

Finally, INDU has now rallied from my green target all the way back up to blue resistance:

In conclusion, there is some resistance at Friday's high (blue line on INDU, top of the green channel in SPX), so bears at least have a chance to do something with that... however, as long as SPX holds the melt-up channel, that has to be given precedence and we'll just have to see how it shakes out. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Trusting Charts While the World Burns

2026-04-17T03:17:00.001-10:00

So SPX made it official with a new all-time high -- finally 100%-without-a-doubt confirming the expanded flat count from December 8, 2025. Worth mentioning that I never sketched even a single "alternate" bear count during the scary decline phase. I did note that bear options couldn't be ruled out (nothing can ever be completely "ruled out" in the market), but I stuck to that expanded flat projection from start to finish -- which is easier said than done when the world is on fire and everyone is panicking. But I've done this for so long that I trust the charts over the news.

SPX reached the "?" on the chart, but as I noted last update, countertrend trading here would be like "stepping in front of a freight train" and that remains true for now:

A couple interesting charts that are worth reviewing, starting with this one (worth rereading the old annotation from 6/13/26):

Next, just a reminder that the ~9000 SPX target remains LIVE until proven otherwise:

Finally, COMPQ also made a new all-time-high:

In conclusion, what we need to know at this stage is that the more complex flat on the first chart remains "possible" for now, but the market has, as of yet, given NO SIGN that it's "probable." We would want to see an impulsive decline and a sustained breakdown of the melt-up channel as first steps. Otherwise, the trend is our friend, as the upside potential remains enormous. Trade safe.

COMPQ and SPX: SPX Finally Fully Confirms Pattern from December

2026-04-15T03:21:00.001-10:00

On Monday, I noted that the opening gap down could still land inside the green melt-up channel, and that if bears couldn't break down below that channel, then the gap down wouldn't mean anything.

They didn't even come close.

COMPQ has continued rallying and now reached a "sneaky" potential resistance zone:

In conclusion, SPX has now confirmed the expanded flat from December 8 on a technical basis, if not yet on an emotionally-satisfying basis (new highs would be more emotionally satisfying!). It's very close and ideally will make it over, though the rally is a bit extended at this point, so we could see a pause and correction soon. If that happens at all, it would currently be expected to be just that -- a "pause" (not the end) -- but if that develops into an impulse down, then we'll look at the implications as needed. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ Updates -- plus What the Strait of Hormuz Really Means to Oil and America

2026-04-13T03:13:00.001-10:00

There's a ton of incorrect information circulating about what the Strait of Hormuz actually means for America, and for oil markets in general. So let's clear some of that up using a series of bullet points (note: I posted this same list on X if you want a ready reference page that's easy to quote-tweet):

The biggest destination for oil that passes through the Strait is China, followed by other major Asian importers (India, Japan, South Korea, etc.).
For 1H25 (First Half of 2025), ~89% went to Asia.
Only ~11% went elsewhere (Europe, USA, rest of the world).
USA alone ≈ 2.5%
The Strait represented only about 7% of total U.S. crude oil/condensate imports, and about 2% of overall U.S. petroleum liquids consumption.
Most U.S. domestic production is light sweet crude (WTI being the major benchmark).
A major reason we still import anything at all through the Strait is sour crude.
Canada is our main source of sour (along with Mexico and other Western Hemisphere suppliers).

The U.S. is far less directly exposed than many people assume.

In 1H25, the U.S. imported ~0.4 million b/d of crude oil and condensate through Hormuz.

The reason the U.S. still imports Gulf barrels is not because America lacks oil. It's because most U.S. domestic production is light sweet crude, while many U.S. refineries still benefit from importing medium/heavier, sour grades.

So the main U.S. risk from a Hormuz disruption is price shock, not that American refineries suddenly “run out of oil.”

The hardest-hit buyers are in Asia, with Europe also exposed, especially through price effects.

It's worth noting that not all Mideast oil needs to pass through the Strait:

Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline): Design capacity expanded to 7 million bpd. Reports from March–April 2026 confirm it has been ramped up to (or near) full capacity to bypass the strait.
UAE ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah): Capacity 1.5 million bpd, with potential to surge toward 1.8 million bpd.

But what about fertilizer?

U.S. nitrogen fertilizer production is heavily tied to domestic natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process, and the U.S. produces most of the nitrogen fertilizer it uses. But globally, a Hormuz disruption could still drive up LNG prices, squeeze ammonia and urea exports, and raise fertilizer and food costs, especially for import-dependent countries. The bigger risk is not that the U.S. “runs out” of fertilizer, but that the rest of the world faces another input-cost shock -- and that could bleed back to us through the global economy.

U.S. sectors that could do well in the event of a prolonged closure include LNG, oil, agriculture, and fertilizer exports.

The downsides are more obvious -- but it seems everyone is talking about those (real or imagined), so I don't feel the need to rehash all that in great detail here. Just sign onto X for five minutes and you'll see people predicting everything from "global depression" to "energy crisis" and more (for the record, I don't see this leading to a U.S. energy crisis -- we have too much domestic oil and the government always has "export bans" as a card of last resort if it ever came to it. High import nations are another matter and could very well face localized energy crises.). But a few of the more likely "negatives" that come to mind are: consumer inflation (higher gas, heating, diesel, etc.), potential global demand destruction, and the fact that while the U.S. is very well insulated, it is not "100%" insulated, so some short-term pain wouldn't be out of the question.

Market-wise, not much happened on Friday, but futures are indicating a minor gap down this morning, though about half of the opening futures gap has already been recovered.

The opening gap may still land within the green melt-up channel, so bears will need to keep pushing to turn it into anything.

COMPQ is still above its intermediate lines:

And finally, SPX bounced solidly off its intermediate trend line:

Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Charts Lead the News, Part #2,785 of ∞

2026-04-10T03:28:00.002-10:00

Since last update, SPX has continued melting up higher. It's interesting to consider that the C-wave target went on our radar several weeks before Christmas, long before the war in Iran, long before the "ceasefire," long before anything in the current news cycle... and it seems to have predicted all of it with uncanny precision. This is why I've long argued that charts lead the news (and its corollary: news is noise). This is also why I never joined in on all the panic -- the charts never gave us a clear reason to panic.

Now, what would be most interesting here -- and I'd be tempted to say I might even lean this way if it weren't unpredictable (corrections aren't impulses, so they have higher variance) -- would be this:

[yes, there's a typo on that chart: an extra "make" -- I'll fix it next update]

Again, I'm not predicting that's what will happen, because nobody can make that prediction here. But it is a technical possibility, and maybe one with higher odds than normal in circumstances such as these... so we'll keep an eye on it.

Next up, INDU has bounced like a superball off its green target, after capturing it right on the nose:

Finally, COMPQ is above its key resistance, for now:

In conclusion, bulls are within spitting distance of completing this pattern -- of course, we can't just assume they will, there's always the possibility of something like a WXY (with C being the bottom of W) -- and they still have another minor black line and red to clear -- but they really can't complain about their position.

Frankly, even if they never make it, the fact that the C-wave inflection zone worked as well as it did -- alerting us months in advance that a tradeable bottom was a reasonable probability in that zone -- is a huge win either way. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, OIL -- and a Rant on Cognitive Bias

2026-04-08T03:01:00.007-10:00

Humans have a persistent, predictable bias: we overweight outcomes we can see and underweight outcomes we can’t. The reason is obvious: immediate, visible consequences feel real, while distant, abstract consequences do not.

That is why people still smoke, eat badly, skip exercise, and ignore slow-building risks in general. They may “know” there are consequences in some abstract sense, but without immediate feedback, those consequences are easy to discount.

This bias also helps explain why politics is so dysfunctional. Many serious problems develop slowly, remain mostly invisible until late in the game, and impose no obvious pain in the present.

Social Security is one example: we’ve known for decades that its finances are structurally strained, yet meaningful reform keeps getting deferred because the problem still feels distant to most people. Most likely, because of our cognitive bias, nothing will be done until the 11th hour.

Imagine these two scenarios:

In the first, you walk into your bedroom, see a bomb, call the bomb squad, and they disarm it. You’re incredibly grateful.

In the second, armed men kick in your door at 1 a.m., drag your family out of the house, terrify your children, damage your property, and leave without explanation. You’re furious.

You carry a grudge against these men for years. Until one day, you finally learn the truth: There was a bomb under your bed and they saved your family.

That is the problem with prevention: when the danger is invisible but the intervention is visible, people often resent the rescue. Preventing a disaster no one saw and that never happened rarely earns gratitude. Worse, if the preventive action is disruptive enough, it can even make the rescuer look like the villain.

Which means there's an asymmetrical social and political payoff for waiting until things are dire.

Politicians are rewarded for managing visible pain and punished for imposing visible costs to prevent abstract future pain.

For that reason, politicians are incentivized not merely to ignore future problems, but to avoid taking painful, visible action against risks the public still experiences as abstract.

So it’s always worth considering what kind of political behavior we, the electorate, are actually rewarding. If we punish prevention and reward delayed reaction, then we should stop acting surprised when politicians wait until after the fire's already raging.

*****

Market wise, bulls obviously aren't entirely out of the woods yet, but it's looking increasingly likely that wave C of the expanded flat we've been tracking since December 8, 2025 has indeed bottomed.

There's another option not discussed on that chart, which would be that the last bottom was a larger B-wave -- which would see a rally back to the all-time high and then yet another return to recent lows. I'll cover that in more detail if it becomes appropriate, but there's the head's up.

COMPQ is likely going to shoot back above its resistance zones at the open. Bulls will, of course, need to sustain that breakout:

Finally, I hinted at this possibility in oil in the prior update, but I think I've talked myself into very slightly favoring it. The last low has been bothering me, because it just doesn't look like any sort of C-wave -- it's looks corrective, like the b-wave I've labeled below. This would mean the spike wave wave c of an expanded flat to complete the larger b-wave. Note that this count, if correct, could indicate another year (or even many years, if the blue abc is just wave A of an even larger flat!) of low oil prices. So I thought it was worth warning about this now:

In conclusion, bulls are doing what they needed to do and the C-wave low is looking more likely. Bears do still have a couple of "last lines of defense," but they'll need to make a convincing and fairly immediate stand to undo the damage they're going to take at the open. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: A Fair Number of Marbles

2026-04-06T03:16:00.004-10:00

Interesting times. Not a ton to add since last update, but SPX has made some progress, clearing the falling black trendline. Red remains its next hurdle:

COMPQ is back-testing its intermediate and long-term trend lines:

In conclusion, there are a fair number of market marbles riding on these tests. If SPX and COMPQ can sustain breakouts back over resistance, there's a good chance the decline is over. If they're rejected at these back-tests, then the market would be signaling that bears are, at least for the moment, waking up. Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: What Bulls Need to Do Next

2026-04-01T03:06:00.002-10:00

Last update noted it would be okay if SPX fell back into its target zone again as long as it didn't sustain trade below it. While it did trade briefly below it, it then bounced immediately. The question now is whether this is finally a lasting bottom, so let's outline what bulls would need to do to signal that.

The first near-term goal is for SPX to sustain trade north of the falling black trend channel:

Looking at it from the other direction, bears still want to see sustained trade below blue:

INDU is also bouncing off its target:

COMPQ is in a kind of no-man's land. Here, bulls need to get back above the three broken trend lines:

In conclusion, SPX and INDU captured their targets and bounced... but so far, SPX has only rallied back up to resistance. It needs to clear black first, for bulls to signal they mean a bit more business. If it can do that, then it will likely head toward next resistance: the upper red channel boundary (first chart). If it can't, clear its resistance zones, then the extended C target will remain on the table. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Capture First Targets

2026-03-30T03:20:00.003-10:00

Since last update, SPX and INDU both captured their targets, literally on the nose. Let's start with INDU:

SPX's "textbook target" was 6356. Friday's low was 6356.08.

As of this moment, futures are indicating a gap up, so the market is clearly acknowledging 6356 as more than just a random number.

Now the caveats: a bounce at a key zone doesn't always mean the final low is in at that zone (the market often reacts to key zones, but not always "permanently"). The SPX chart outlines what bulls need to do next -- basically, they need to start getting back above the broken trend lines and the black channel.

It's okay for SPX to fall back into the target zone again, but if it sustains trade below that zone, then the extended C target goes on the radar... and just be aware that if it were to sustain trade below the lower boundary of the black channel (SPX chart), it could be in real trouble. Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: An Old Log Chart Worth Viewing

2026-03-27T03:12:00.003-10:00

Since last update, SPX has faded back to the "Trump Tweet Lows" and is testing the zone around those this morning. COMPQ has faded as well. Let's get right into the SPX near-term chart:

On SPX's longer term log chart, we can see older support sitting just a bit below current levels. This roughly lines up with the C-wave target above:

COMPQ is still in the "maybe it can find a whipsaw" zone, but nothing bullish has happened there yet:

INDU is likewise just above support:

In conclusion, the market has continued drifting lower and is now back to testing its last low. There is potential longer-term support not far below that, and the first C-wave target. Whether bulls can do anything with any of that -- or if bears are here to stay for a while (keep in mind the "worst case" INDU bear chart published previously, which would see a serious decline) -- remains to be seen. Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ, GOLD: Don't Hatch Your Chickens Before They're Counted

2026-03-25T03:23:00.003-10:00

First up: the forums are back up. Note that if you have trouble there, then you may need to clear your browser cache.

So the main thing that's happened since last update is: "nothing." The market is still in basically the same place. But that's not insignificant here. Because it means the downward momentum has stalled for the time being -- after reaching targets in some markets and nearly reaching targets in others. As long-time readers know, the areas near target zones represent inflection zones.

SPX illustrates the next steps for bulls... and a test of upper red looks slightly better than 50% likely at this moment. Then if bulls can breakout there, it could be back to the black lines... and maybe back up to new highs. So bears probably shouldn't count their chickens just yet.

COMPQ is still below its first key support, but hasn't declared which way it wants to go yet and could still whipsaw:

INDU is in a similar boat to SPX, with the added benefit of having had futures capture its target:

Finally, Gold just did an interesting test of a trend line that's been on this chart for a while -- and so far, that held as support.

In conclusion, Monday's update's conclusion still hold:

The question at the moment is whether Trump's tweet is going to be enough to stick save this thing here -- and "here" happens to be at or near first targets, so that's not out of the question. The first positive sign for bulls would be sustained trade north of ~6700, and ideally a breakout over the upper red boundary on the SPX chart. The "positive" sign for bears would be SPX giving back everything futures just gained and COMPQ sustaining trade south of Friday's low. The COMPQ chart suggests that if that occurs, we could see the selling continue, possibly leading the market another 5-10% lower, if not more.

Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Stick Save or Bust

2026-03-23T03:14:00.009-10:00

First up, the forums are STILL down -- after much back and forth and gnashing of teeth, it appears the problem is on my host's end, so now we're waiting for them to sort out their server Apache handlers. In the meantime, I'll post to X a bit: Pretzel Logic

Market-wise, last update said:

The thing about this wave is *if* it's a C-wave decline, it should be a clean motive wave -- either a standard impulse down or a diagonal. Right now, it isn't clearly either of those things. That may suggest it's still incomplete.

And SPX then made new lows -- so it was, indeed, incomplete.

But the market is having an interesting moment now: after drifting downward early, Trump tweeted that he was in positive negotiations with Iran and futures shot up ~230 points in six minutes. Whether that's enough to mark a bottom or not is anyone's guess. COMPQ suggests bulls probably need it to be. If futures give all those gains right back, beware. COMPQ's prior behavior around this trend line suggests bulls can't tolerate being below it for long without more selling hitting the tape.

SPX futures took it closer to its textbook target in the overnight, but didn't quite reach it.

INDU futures basically did reach its target in the overnight.

In conclusion, the question at the moment is whether Trump's tweet is going to be enough to stick save this thing here -- and "here" happens to be at or near first targets, so that's not out of the question. The first positive sign for bulls would be sustained trade north of ~6700, and ideally a breakout over the upper red boundary on the SPX chart. The "positive" sign for bears would be SPX giving back everything futures just gained and COMPQ sustaining trade south of Friday's low. The COMPQ chart suggests that if that occurs, we could see the selling continue, possibly leading the market another 5-10% lower, if not more. Trade safe.

OIL, SPX, COMPQ, INDU: What Are We Even Looking At Here

2026-03-20T02:23:24.134-10:00

Okay, let's lead with a new chart today:

The thing about this wave is *if* it's a C-wave decline, it should be a clean motive wave -- either a standard impulse down or a diagonal. Right now, it isn't clearly either of those things. That may suggest it's still incomplete.

Bigger picture, SPX remains above long-term support. As always, some whipping around that level is okay (that's just what markets do) -- it's a sustained breakdown that bulls should worry about:

INDU has gotten close to its downside target:

Bigger picture, there are enough waves for a complete Supercycle 5 if it wants:

COMPQ is still above its long-term support zone:

And finally, a number of readers have asked for an update on the legacy oil chart (the same chart since 2011, which has caught every major move in oil for the past 15 years). At this point, basically the hope for oil BEARS is that the wave labeled "2?" is actually a b-wave low (which would need to be revisited). If it's not a b-wave low, then we may have just begun Primary Wave 3 up, which will be a long and scary wave that takes oil into the stratosphere (~249 target). That might pair well with the end up Supercycle 5 in equities... hard to imagine the economy booming with oil above $200 a barrel.

Worth keeping in mind.

In conclusion, equities are holding their long-term support zones for now, but I do again want to stress that -- IF this is a bear wave -- it's the type of wave that moves "gradually, then all at once." So -- again, IF this is the start of a bear wave -- then at some point it will just let go, and there won't be many good exits in the future. Because of the overlapping nature of the wave so far and the unclean high, I don't think there's an easy answer to that question right at this moment.

Trade safe.

p.s.- the forums are currently down. IT is working on this and they will hopefully be back up this weekend.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-03-18T03:07:05.291-10:00

Last update attempted the bold gambit of publishing an extremely bearish chart to attempt to force bulls to rally (don't ask too many questions about the mechanics behind this, but it has something to do with quantum physics), and the market did indeed stage a small bounce in the two days since. However, bulls haven't cleared any meaningful levels so far.

As a reminder, the first thing bulls need to do is sustain a breakout over the red channel.

Meanwhile, the next things bears need to do is sustain a breakdown at support.

Same goes for COMPQ:

COMPQ's near-term chart is still in roughly the same place it was, but this offers another way to view support (and it roughly aligns with the chart above):

In conclusion, not much actual movement since last update, and I remain skeptical of this overall pattern. The next step for bears would be to sustain a breakdown at SPX's most recent low. If they can do that, then maybe things finally get moving. Conversely, if bulls can sustain a breakout over the red trend channel in SPX, then the high 6800s comes on the radar. Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Bear Chart to Force Rally?

2026-03-16T03:22:00.002-10:00

Since last update, SPX dipped a quick toe below last week's low (though ES held above the comparable low).

Let's look at a long-term chart we haven't looked at in a while:

Near-term, SPX is still testing the edge:

COMPQ remains above long-term support:

INDU remains below its first support zone, but above its second:

Finally, it might be time to force bulls into a rally -- by bringing out this old, very bearish chart. In the event this IS a diagonal, when the diagonal completes, a trip back below Dow 20K would be the normal result (not all in the same day, obviously -- but probably over a couple years):

In conclusion, not much else to add here -- the market remains above most of its key levels, at least for now. The inclusion of the most bearish chart in my chartbook might force the market to rally today (I'm joking... sort of). Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: And a New Chart

2026-03-13T03:16:00.002-10:00

Since last update, SPX stalled at channel resistance and has ground its way lower. Let's get right to the charts; there's a new one to cover.

First up, COMPQ is still holding up, above support:

Here's the new chart, which discusses both the bull and bear cases:

INDU was rejected on its first test of resistance. Because it's now back to support (the old low), it does have a window where it could decide to bounce again if it wants:

Finally, SPX. I've added an "extended C" target because the possible bear nest has to be taken seriously for now, and if this is a bear nest, the standard C target may not allow enough space for it to unwind:

That's all the news that's fit to print. Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Plus the Biggest Risk in AI That No One is Talking About

2026-03-11T03:09:00.002-10:00

Before we get into the charts, I want to talk about a new study, because it has implications for the broader market.

The study I'm referencing tested 35 AI models across 172 billion tokens of document information (in other words: the testing was robust). Here's what the study found:

Even giving the AI the document and then asking about the document it was holding (i.e. -- not asking the AI to go from memory but to go from the data right in front of its virtual face), the very best AI model in the study fabricated answers 1.19% of the time. That's under optimal conditions, not under a stressful real-world application.

Most top models fabricated at rates of 5% to 7%. With the answers in hand. The human equivalent would be looking at a page and still making up what it said.

The median fabrication rate across all 35 models tested was ~25%.

As I posted on X: I think this problem isn't talked about enough. Because 100% of the "AI will save/destroy the world" expectations hinge on the ASSUMPTION that this problem will be solved at some point.

What if it just... never gets solved? What if it's fundamental to the way we've designed AI? What if our design guarantees this problem manifests and we can't solve it without losing all the progress we've made? (The way, say, car designs guarantee that cars will roll and you can't solve "car rolls downhill when brakes are disengaged" without starting over from scratch.)

Jason Haver on X (this also contains the link to the study)

Because (as I posed in a follow up): Imagine a company where the CEO hallucinates data, sales figures, suppliers, manufacturing capacity, etc., at even a rate of 5% per day. That company is bankrupt before it even gets off the ground. ALL "AI will run everything" scenarios assume this gets solved favorably.

Or imagine a doctor who hallucinates illnesses you don't have and cures that don't exist.

In other words, the entire AI dream is built on the belief that this foundational problem will get solved. If this problem does not get solved, then we're currently in a massive hubristic AI bubble.

I'm not saying it won't eventually get fixed -- I don't know whether it will or not. I'm just saying: we have to consider the possibility that it doesn't. In which case, AI may be a decent research partner (assuming you verify everything it tells you), and it may aid in general human progress the way, say, supercomputers did -- but it will never be able to run anything important on its own.

Food for thought.

Market-wise, last update concluded:

This is probably the last chance for bulls to pull a whipsaw.

And they did. But, in INDU at least, they have not yet broken back above key resistance. Let's look at SPX first:

INDU is below resistance and has so far only back-tested it:

COMPQ, on the other hand, is still above support (!):

In conclusion, at this exact moment, we have a mixed bag of signals. SPX is in no-man's land; INDU is below resistance; COMPQ is above support. This is an absolutely schizoid market, but what we can reasonably infer from this is that bulls are probably out of chances and likely need to keep this bounce going. If they can't, then bears (probably) finally get the ball. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Stop Messing with the Time Already

2026-03-09T03:11:00.002-10:00

First off, we don't do DST here in Hawaii, so it's easy to forget it exists... but some internal buzzer was apparently set and told me I'd better check this morning. God knows how I remembered that. Otherwise, the update would have been late.

Last update noted that the market seemed to have reached a tipping point, and while nothing happened on Friday, futures are suggesting that this morning is going to open lower, so if bulls can't recover directly, then the market may have room to run.

We're still tracking the flat below as an increasingly live option:

SPX closed in its inflection zone:

INDU is below support:

COMPQ, however, is somehow *above* support -- for now:

In conclusion, it looks like SPX will open lower... this is probably the last chance for bulls to pull a whipsaw. If they can't, then bears may take the wheel for a while. Trade safe.

p.s.- if anyone is asking, I would prefer we stay on STANDARD Time, not DST. We were just on Standard Time, which puts Hawaii 5 hours behind New York. DST puts us 6 hours behind. And no, Standard Time isn't what makes the days short -- Winter is what makes the days short. Here's what sunrise and sunset would look like during the summer (when the days are long) if we stayed on the actual time (Standard Time, which is determined by the sun being overhead at noon).

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Tipping Point on Deck

2026-03-06T04:08:00.001-10:00

So the market remains poised on the edge of a balance beam, and bulls can't give away too much more here without the whole thing falling over.

I've moved the inflection box down slightly to better reflect the current reality... but there's going to come a point -- and we may have finally reached that point -- where if it goes much lower, it's just going to run.

INDU is below its support zones at the moment:

COMPQ is above its IT zones -- for now:

Finally, the SPX expanded flat chart illustration:

In conclusion, I think bulls are finally on thin ice. Prior to recently, I haven't been too concerned with minor new lows... but I suspect we've finally reached the point -- after months of waiting -- where if the market tips too much further and sustains a breakdown, sellers will take over. Again, SPX might still tolerate one more short whipsaw of the most recent low -- but I don't think it will tolerate much more than that. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Some Interesting Things

2026-03-04T04:26:00.003-10:00

Some interesting things have happened since last update.

Let's start with INDU, which captured its standing target:

SPX briefly dipped below the highlighted box I drew on Monday and found support at a trendline we've been watching for roughly a month now.

It effectively tested the trendline on this chart as well, though it didn't quite touch it:

In conclusion, bulls probably need to mount a comeback now. If the market sustains trade below these support levels, then the market will be falling into some potential "air zones," where trend support gets thin. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

2026-03-02T03:50:00.001-10:00

Most of the market barely budged on Friday, leaving us in more or less the same position we were then. Maybe the most interesting thing to happen was that INDU dipped below its blue trendline, but then closed on it -- so the jury's out as to whether this will become a sustained break or a whipsaw:

SPX basically has two primary options here:

1. The current decline is part of a nested third wave down (in which case, we're likely embarking on the expanded flat we've been watching for three months).

2. The current decline is part of wave 2/b down and getting close to bouncing.

Hence the inflection zone highlighted on this chart:

Finally, the most bearish option in detail below:

Not much else to add beyond all that. Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Detailing the Bear Case (again)

2026-02-27T04:21:00.003-10:00

So the market has remained range-bound, but I'm going to rehash some of the bear options I've covered over the past few months, since they're worth revisiting. Let's start with the oldest one: SPX -- but I've drawn a new chart to help readers. Because it finally feels like the right time to actually draw this chart, for whatever that ends up meaning (it just feels like the market finally wants to do something soon, one way or the other. Maybe lol.).

The old chart is unchanged:

INDU's chart discusses its options:

Finally, COMPQ again:

In conclusion, SPX's most recent rally was a clear three wave structure -- so far. Which means bulls probably don't want to see a sustained break of 6775 now, because that would put the option of a bear nest on the table and could lead to a rapid drop. Note that a RETEST of the ~6775 zone is still an option, so a slight break wouldn't be the complete end of the world yet. But a sustained breakdown on accelerating momentum would point toward the expanded flat and ~6356. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: The Least Exciting Market in History

2026-02-25T04:20:00.003-10:00

The market once again did nothing, as it's been doing for almost three months now.

INDU did test the blue trend line again, so I guess that's a thing. It was enough to make an annotation on the chart, at least. I mean, honestly, I didn't really NEED to make an annotation about it -- I think my threshold for what gets annotated is just low at the moment, because there's been nothing worth annotating in like 10 days.

SPX barely moved in the last two days:

Same with COMPQ:

In conclusion, there is, of course, nothing to add to the past... what? Couple of weeks of updates? Three months of updates? I mean, really, we're still in the "will it/won't it?" zone for that expanded flat I outlined (in SPX) way back on December 8, 2025. And I've since covered the bull case and bear cases several times in the event the market ever leaves this zone. So yeah, just not a lot to say that hasn't been said three or four times by now.

I guess on the plus side, some analysts have undoubtedly spent the last three months screaming day in and day out that something or other is "imminent!" and they've all been wrong (I'm not thinking of anyone in particular, I'm just guessing based on ~30 years of experience). We've avoided that game, at least, so we've got that going for us.

Anyway, did you hear the one about the Fed Governor? Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: No Change

2026-02-23T03:56:00.000-10:00

The market remained in a holding pattern on Friday, so there's nothing to add to the last three or four updates.

Everything is basically in the same place.

INDU:

SPX:

COMPQ:

So far, bulls are holding what they need to. The last few updates have covered why they want to continue that and what could happen if they don't, so please refer back to them if you missed those discussions. Trade safe.