Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-08-14T03:25:38.036-10:00

On August 7, I wrote:

...that's one reason I'm stepping back from the "needs more fourth wave" call (though I still slightly lean that way).

It turned out the caution I demonstrated there was misplaced and SPX did indeed need more fourth wave (though whether caution can ever be "misplaced" when dealing with an organic system as complex as the stock market is a deeper philosophical question). It appears to be breaking out of a triangle, but hasn't reached the classic triangle target yet.

The more bullish interpretation would be that it's breaking out of a new bull nest and will run higher for at least a little while, unwinding 4th and 5th waves along the way.

The more "bearish" (though only near-term bearish) option would be that the high is a b-wave.

COMPQ looks like it's probably an incomplete wave so far:

Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

p.s.- We have a tropical storm (projected to be turning into a hurricane) headed straight for Hawaii and due to hit later today and into the weekend... so there's a chance the updates may be disrupted heading into next week. I have a feeling this one might actually do some damage (unlike most of the storms that head our way), so we'll keep our fingers crossed.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Extreme Market Dissonance

2026-08-12T03:26:42.427-10:00

SPX hasn't moved since Thursday, so there's little to add... but I'll add something anyway.

The charts are pretty self-explanatory here. SPX first:

INDU is interesting:

And COMPQ is still in the same place:

The charts pretty much say it all here... we have three markets that all seem to be on different pages. This extreme dissonance suggests traders are heavily divided on what they're anticipating next. Trade safe.

NYA and COMPQ Updates: (SPX Offered Nothing New)

2026-08-10T03:18:48.059-10:00

SPX rallied a hair on Friday but is in the same place structurally. Which means there's nothing new to talk about there. So, to prevent this update from being six words long, let's talk about something else.

We'll start with the bull case, which is probably at its most visible in NYA:

The bear case, which might well only be short-term even if it comes to pass, is still best visible in COMPQ:

In conclusion, on Friday, I mentioned on our forums that across my literally tens of thousands of hours of watching price charts unfold in real-time, I haven't seen too many markets behave this consistently strangely, particularly from a pattern perspective. Micro-patterns that would resolve 90% of the time in a typical market never get resolved in this one. Obviously, you could say "well, this is just the 10% of the time they don't resolve" and I would agree with that if it only happened once or twice -- but it's been continuous. You can expect to hit heads 50% of the time on a coin flip -- but you can't reasonably expect to hit it 60 times in a row. This market is the latter. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Upon Further Review...

2026-08-07T03:30:23.718-10:00

In the last update, I suggested that the rally probably needed "at least two 4/5 unwinds higher." My confidence in that has fallen significantly. Let me show you why, starting with SPX's near-term chart:

Upon further examination and deeper study of ES (e-mini SPX futures), I cannot rule out the black count. And the black count would have already completed the requisite fourth wave. So that's one reason I'm stepping back from the "needs more fourth wave" call (though I still slightly lean that way).

The other is COMP, which I showed last update and which looked like IT needed another high... and it still kind of looks that way, but whether it does or not, COMPQ and SPX haven't exactly been moving in lockstep, so SPX does not need to follow.

In conclusion, this is a low-confidence market right now and I'm struggling to find anything that's high-confidence actionable, so the best we can do is know the options to have a jump on them as it develops. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-08-05T03:13:47.326-10:00

Way back on June 17, I wrote:

I do suspect that if SPX forms another scary wave down, this is probably not the end of the bull market yet, based on INDU and NYA.

We never even got another truly "scary" wave down -- so that call, at least, was easy. Pretty much nothing else about this market has been.

Friday's update warned that, after a string of near-term wins, the pattern had taken us as far as it could and that things were now up in the air. I attempted to heavily underscore that warning with:

"The simplest version of this pattern is potentially complete -- so further lows are OPTIONAL but not NECESSARY."

Friday's update as a whole intended to convey that the market was behaving, as that update so eloquently put it, "insane."

Monday's update then attempted to detail the potential triangle that was, at that time, still on the table as one of the "2,896.5 potentially valid near-term patterns" (Friday's quote). The triangle turned out to be a no-go, which we knew for certain the very instant SPX broke above 7581.50 (this level, too, was discussed in Friday's update).

And as I also wrote Monday:

Ultimately, bulls are basically just looking for SPX to make a new all-time high, which would reset most of the bear options and give bulls a clean slate.

So on Friday and Monday (before the session), while we didn't know what the market would do next, we at least knew that we didn't know -- and tried to convey that clearly.

It now appears that the rare bull pattern discussed on Friday was probably the pattern we were in:

The more bullish option (not shown) would be that we just lived through a rare RUNNING flat (where the wave C decline fails to break the wave A low) and the decline is entirely over, with SPX headed to a new all-time high.

Rare patterns are, by definition, unusual (obviously), so the tough thing is: you can't bank on a rare pattern. That would be like betting the coin flip will land on the edge of the coin instead of on heads or tails. Sure, it happens. But rarely. The best you can hope to do is identify such patterns when they're possible -- and get out of the market's way when ambiguity is high (or hedge heavily, if you know what you're doing and understand that hedges will go to zero if the market keeps grinding).

COMPQ is the most interesting chart out there:

In conclusion, the triangle died during Monday's session and bulls ran with that on Tuesday. This is now the type of market that's best served by just drawing an uptrend (melt-up) channel and not even giving thought to countertrend trading unless the market can sustain trade below it (and maybe not even then -- countertrend trading is often brutal, as we just saw). Trade safe.

SPX Update: Needs More Cowbell

2026-08-03T03:23:17.105-10:00

Last update had no hard predictions -- and those was a hit (wait, what?). This update will detail some of the details in more detail, in as detailed a fashion as I can manage while also finding a way to work the word "detail" into this sentence again.

Let's start with the complex triangle. This first chart is the chart we've all come to know and love through these many moons -- a chart that needs no introduction.

The second chart is more... detailed.

This next chart shows how the complex triangle (if that's what this even is) might play out:

This third chart shows the current micro count. If this wave is part of a triangle, it should remain an ABC. If it becomes impulsive, that would leave the old WXY count and a b-wave low (with the next wave down to be a third wave) (that count can't exceed 7582)... or bull options.

Let's add more detail to the details detailed above: In the event this is the complex triangle, it's worth knowing that it would NOT be long-term bearish. It would be near-term bearish -- but because triangles are virtually always penultimate waves (4th or b waves), it would strongly suggest the larger decline from the ATH would remain as an ABC, with new highs to follow.

The most bearish count going right now would be the WXY with that last decline as wave 1 of C or 3 down and the current bounce as 2 up. That count would offer at least some longer-term hope (not promises, but hope) to bears, were it to play out.

The bull counts are varied -- and largely redundant, because they all end with "stocks go up." There is one obscure "bull" count that ends badly, and that would be if this were an ending diagonal in progress, destined for one or two more highs before falling off a cliff -- but we'll worry about that if the pattern says we should.

Ultimately, bulls are basically just looking for SPX to make a new all-time high, which would reset most of the bear options and give bulls a clean slate.

So those are the details as they sit at this exact moment in time. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Three Hits in a Row -- Now it Gets Tough Again

2026-07-31T03:28:06.760-10:00

Today's Question of the Day comes from long-time reader Hubert "the Hammer" Spankle, who writes:

Dear Mr. Logic,

Is this market insane? Or what?

Sincerely,
Hubert "the Hammer" Spankle

Well Hubert, I think you've hit the nail on the head (hence the nickname?) -- and many traders are, in fact, wondering the exact same thing. The short answer is: yes. Yes it is.

One of the best charts we've had during the past couple weeks of insanity is INDU, which has helped keep us sane -- by keeping us looking the correct near-term direction.

But INDU's chart has now potentially completed what it needed to and isn't offering any further hints -- as of this exact moment, anyway. In the event it sustains trade at a new low, that could actually kick off a decent decline (as that would, presumably, be wave 3 down of a larger 3 or C down), which would likely take us down toward ~50k or below. More details on the chart:

Moving on to SPX, there are no less than 2,896.5 potentially valid near-term patterns at this exact juncture... but the more complex triangle is still very much in the running, largely because the last two legs down have been very start-stoppish (not a word), which is inconsistent with typical impulsive declines. Not impossible, of course, but inconsistent. The chart below discusses this in more detail (triangles can be ugly, so this is intended for over 18 only. NSFW.):

The more immediately bearish option (not shown) would be that this week's low is a b-wave, and new lows will be forthcoming as soon as the c-wave bounce completes.

The more bullish option (not shown) would be that we just lived through a rare RUNNING flat (where the wave C decline fails to break the wave A low) and the decline is entirely over, with SPX headed to a new all-time high.

That's about all the news that's fit to print at the moment. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: And She's Buying a Stairway to...

2026-07-29T03:17:43.551-10:00

Last update concluded with:

Monday's update was ["wave" was a typo] directionally correct on two fronts (SPX's projection showed the market heading up, then down, which it did) and this may be the start of blue C down... but due to the bounce at lower red, the market has kept its options open for now. If bears can sustain trade below lower red, then the probability that wave c down is already underway will increase.

And while Monday's session opened with the market dropping like a lead zeppelin, bulls managed to hold last week's low, leaving the above quoted paragraph in full effect.

INDU ran with the "this looks like it might be a b-wave low in progress" thing I grumbled about in the last update and bounced up to 52.9k.

In conclusion, SPX is in more or less the same place it was last update, so all of that still applies. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Market Performs as Expected -- But Withholds Confirmation

2026-07-27T03:11:22.762-10:00

Monday's update noted:

INDU did break the low I flagged as likely to be broken, but the wave is still a little shorter than ideal. Not impossible for it to end there, but normally I'd think it's either not done yet or something along the lines of the black sketch is in store.

INDU has since made another low, so it was indeed "not done yet" (worth noting that the black sketch referenced above also ultimately projected lower prices, so the options were "down now, or down later"):

SPX managed to drop right down to the inflection zone I mentioned back on July 7 -- and bounce. Which means bears do not yet have confirmation that the next "real" wave down is underway, and the annoyingly complex correction could continue if the market wants:

Near-term SPX below... recall that on July 13, I noted that other versions of the triangle were possible -- those other versions are one of the things keeping some of the ambiguity alive for now.

In conclusion, Monday's update was directionally correct on two fronts (SPX's projection showed the market heading up, then down, which it did) and this may be the start of blue C down... but due to the bounce at lower red, the market has kept its options open for now. If bears can sustain trade below lower red, then the probability that wave c down is already underway will increase. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: INDU Hits First Projected Target, What Now?

2026-07-20T02:31:13.496-10:00

The market has continued to be exceptionally weird, but so far, it's performed in-line directionally with the WXY count. The chart below outlines some contingencies looking out into the future, since I'll be taking some personal time on Wednesday and Friday and the updates will return on Monday.

INDU did break the low I flagged as likely to be broken, but the wave is still a little shorter than ideal. Not impossible for it to end there, but normally I'd think it's either not done yet or something along the lines of the black sketch is in store:

In conclusion, I've tried to cover the bases in the event the WXY goes off the rails, but so far, it's done what bears would hope. That doesn't guarantee anything, especially as strange as this market has been, but it's obviously preferable to it having blown through the ATH and ignored the count entirely. At least the inflection zone was good. I'll see you on Monday -- trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates: So Far, So Basically Okay

2026-07-17T03:15:05.931-10:00

Last update noted that there weren't any clearly impulsive declines yet and hence another high for wave Y shouldn't be surprising -- and SPX did make another high since. It has also reversed right off the Y inflection zone, which keeps things interesting:

Last update also noted that INDU's pattern would normally see lower prices before having a shot at recovery, so we'll see if bears can knock it down further on this round -- or if the market wants to mess with everyone's heads some more.

In conclusion, I've included targets for Wave C down -- IF this is indeed Wave C down -- but SPX was rejected right in the Y inflection zone just after making the anticipated new high... so that's about all that bears could ask for at this stage. We'll see how it develops from here. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

2026-07-15T03:29:03.393-10:00

Since last update, bears did stall the rally for a bit, but the decline that formed is not clearly impulsive. Note this does NOT say "clearly not impulsive," it says "not clearly impulsive," which means it doesn't appear to be an impulse but I can't rule that out. We also cannot currently rule out that it's a partial structure (for example, 1-2 down, not a complete impulse).

But... it's "not clearly impulsive," so we shouldn't be surprised if SPX just rallies up to another high here. No change on the SPX chart. Y could support another high, though doesn't need it.

INDU is more interesting:

On Monday, a reader asked if Y needs to make a new ATH, and it does not -- in fact, in bears' best world, it would not. Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: The B-Movie Market

2026-07-13T03:14:35.237-10:00

SPX finally invalidated the triangle option as drawn, so at least that's progress of a sort:

We haven't looked at the big picture chart in a month and a half, primarily because there's been nothing to update:

NYA is still roughly in the same place (structurally) that it was on Friday:

Other than the triangle invalidating, there's not a lot to talk about -- for the near-term, it remains a Harlequin Romance "will they/won't they?" market for the moment. Basically, bears need to stop the rally and develop a new near-term impulsive decline fairly soon. If they can't, then we're dealing with an expanded flat (if the market makes new highs then reverses in a c-wave decline) or watching a new minute-level bull nest develop in SPX -- both options would be decidedly bullish at higher degree, one just takes an indirect route. Bears would need to reverse this shy of the all-time high to keep anything other than short-term options open. Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, and the Beard Updates

2026-07-10T03:23:21.759-10:00

Last update ended with us "watching to see if bears can do anything with this": and they did -- and didn't. Bears got a nice decline but then bulls rushed in to buy, flush with fresh cash from predatory payday loans dropped from drone helicopters piloted by Ben "the Beard" Bernanke from his cave on Alcatraz.

Which means we're still basically in the same place we've been all week:

The triangle and WXY both remain live for now:

Finally, I want to call bears' attention to NYA, which I've mentioned a few times in conjunction with INDU going back to June 12, when I wrote:

[T]here's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now. And that alone is cause to avoid complacency. Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally.

That larger rally has since materialized -- and NYA is still cause for bears to be on guard, as explained below:

In conclusion, bears are clinging to technical hope for the time being, but they are running thin on real estate, so if they're going to get something going, they'll need to do so soon. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Why Not Try Angle?

2026-07-08T03:09:30.238-10:00

Last update noted that SPX could make another run at the black trendline, which it did:

This keeps the triangle alive:

For now, the WXY shown above also remains alive, since nothing has yet happened to invalidate it. Not much else to add at the moment, now it's just watching to see if bears can do anything with this. Trade safe.

SPX Update: In the Pedants' Day

2026-07-06T03:18:22.098-10:00

As those of you who've previously installed the Outlook Calendar app already know, America just successfully turned 250 years old -- so a Happy Belated Independence Day to all my fellow Americans.

The market has, not surprisingly, continued sideways-up ever since I drew the Most Frustrating Pattern in the World on the June 25.

But now it's about time for bears to either make good on this pattern or return to hibernation.

Not shown: INDU made a new all-time high on Thursday. SPX tested black:

In conclusion, bears have reached the first upside inflection zone, so we'll see if they can make good on it -- or if it was all just another Bear Head Trip™ caused by Ben Bernanke, huddled in his cave, sticking pins in bear voodoo dolls. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Structural Isomorphism

2026-07-01T03:06:26.361-10:00

Last update, titled "Still on Guard" ended with a warning:

[B]ears should be modestly cautious for now, because in the event the first leg up was a W and the decline since was X, then the market would be forming a larger WXY and a trip back to that all-time high from here isn't impossible. That would fit in the sense of explaining why this decline doesn't feel like a proper C wave, so worth keeping in mind.

And modestly cautious was probably a good stance. As I noted on Friday, the decline was bothering me and just didn't feel right for a C-wave:

SPX is behaving a bit oddly given that this is supposed to be a C-wave decline -- it's rare that A waves (the last decline) are more relentless than C-waves. This means that either the C-wave is just warming up and it will rectify itself soon... or that something more annoying is afoot.

At this point, we can probably make a pretty good argument that it's likely it was indeed not yet the actual C-wave. It's likely either the triangle that I proposed on Friday, or the WXY that I mentioned on Monday. The trick is that these two options (triangle/WXY) are, at this phase, observationally isomorphic -- essentially, they're identical wave structures (ABCs), with the difference being the final length of the wave, not the structure itself. Since we can only see the structure at this phase (we obviously can't see the length until it's actually completed), the distinction remains uncertain.

In other words, the reason this is difficult is not because I’m hedging or being vague. It’s because the two viable structures produce the same observable evidence at this stage. The difference in these two comes LATER in the pattern: The triangle forms a series of contracting ABC structures, while the WXY simply forms two similar ABC rally structures, with a smaller ABC in-between (the X wave).

Which means, in short, that you simply cannot tell the difference at this phase -- they would and should both look exactly the same right now. Which, of course, makes it functionally impossible to anticipate which it is. The second chart following this one will help us make that determination (possibly).

I've added the WXY in black on the chart below:

So, the next thing to watch is the black line that I discussed on June 25: If SPX sustains trade back above, then we may be looking at the WXY. If it gets rejected here/at the red line, then we may be looking at the triangle. This isn't foolproof -- corrections are always less predictable than impulses -- but it's the best we've got at this phase.

In conclusion, I'm going to lean toward the triangle slightly just because it was my first instinct back on Friday, and my first instinct usually has a slight edge -- but that's far from being guaranteed, so take it with a grain of salt. Of course, given that nothing in life is guaranteed, there's also always the possibility that something more bullish than either of these counts is afoot, so we should never forget that the market is probabilistic, not deterministic. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Still on Guard

2026-06-29T00:49:42.579-10:00

On Friday, SPX did "the thing" again, where it basically goes nowhere. Accordingly, no real change since last update:

The triangle isn't off the table yet, though I redrew it slightly, to try to better align (what is essentially a guess) with the ever-changing variables:

Nothing else to add beyond that, really -- though bears should be modestly cautious for now, because in the event the first leg up was a W and the decline since was X, then the market would be forming a larger WXY and a trip back to that all-time high from here isn't impossible. That would fit in the sense of explaining why this decline doesn't feel like a proper C wave, so worth keeping in mind. Trade safe.

Gold, Oil, SPX, INDU -- and the Most Frustrating Pattern in the World

2026-06-25T21:38:00.632-10:00

Lots of interesting goings-on since last update, so let's get right to it.

Gold recently captured its next downside target, published exactly three months ago:

Oil has been behaving according to its preferred count, which has been a big win no matter what happens next:

SPX is behaving a bit oddly given that this is supposed to be a C-wave decline -- it's rare that A waves (the last decline) are more relentless than C-waves. This means that either the C-wave is just warming up and it will rectify itself soon... or that something more annoying is afoot (more on that shortly).

On June 12, I warned that INDU and NYA didn't seem to be playing along and that this was cause for bears to be on guard. While SPX was busy clowning around, INDU actually made a new all-time high yesterday:

As promised, here's the "something more annoying"/"Most Frustrating." The potential exists for the current wave to NOT be wave C yet, but to be part of a triangle B-wave. I do have to give a shout-out to forum member 1FE who, although I think he was talking about a different triangle, may have played a role in planting the triangle idea in my subconscious.

So the triangle's not a given or anything, but it's something to keep in our minds as a live possibility for now.

In conclusion, Gold has performed as expected and captured its next target -- and may have further to fall if gold bulls can't hold it here. Oil has performed as expected. SPX is, technically, performing as expected directionally, but the choppy nature of the decline is enough to send up a caution flag to watch for the triangle. Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change But the Typo

2026-06-24T03:22:55.044-10:00

SPX is so far behaving in accord with the larger preferred count, though the near-term has been behaving a bit goofier than it was last time.

Note there was a typo on Monday's chart targets (the first number in the first target range was too broad and had accidentally inherited the prefix of the second range):

No changes (other than to correct that typo) so far. Trade safe.

SPX Update: It Was Easier When It Was Hard

2026-06-22T03:30:57.368-10:00

On June 12, I mentioned that "there's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now. And that alone is cause to avoid complacency. Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally."

So I'm going to present the bear case but instead of blinding assuming everything will go according to plan, we're going to talk about all the ways it could go wrong.

Let's start with the near-term chart:

What's bothering me on that chart is Thursday's action -- which has three options:

1. It's a b-wave high in progress, which likely leads to the black path.

2. It's part of an ending diagonal, which would rally just a hair more but then be more bearish than black.

3. It's a micro bull nest -- which could lead to a rough retest of 7577 (+/-) and potentially even new all-time highs. If it breaks over 7512 immediately and begins to gain momentum, bears should watch out for this option.

Next up is the intermediate chart, which now features a couple of "early bearish partial confirmation" trend lines:

In conclusion, this is the inflection: As long as bears hold below 7578, they have excellent odds. Option 3 above would act as the first early-warning signal (though that MIGHT only lead to a rough retest of 7578, it still wouldn't be ideal for bears to see). We likewise have early warning signals for bulls (the trend lines). Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

2026-06-17T03:30:34.303-10:00

On June 12, I talked about how INDU and NYA didn't seem to be playing along with the bear case, and both have since made new highs.

SPX has now rallied up to the rough retest of its prior high:

So bears probably can't afford too much more rally if they want to get a C-wave down. I do suspect that if SPX forms another scary wave down, this is probably not the end of the bull market yet, based on INDU and NYA -- but I can't rule that out, of course. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Narrator: "It Did Not"

2026-06-15T03:30:57.294-10:00

Last update ended with: In conclusion, SPX looks straightforward, but there's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now. And that alone is cause to avoid complacency. Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally.

INDU did not break down -- in fact, it rallied:

And now SPX futures are indicating bears are indeed in for a larger rally:

So we'll just have to see how SPX does with its next inflection zones. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Holding the Bear Case to the Fire

2026-06-12T03:22:33.993-10:00

So SPX performed almost exactly as drawn on the black projection in the prior update, but that doesn't mean we should rest on our laurels. We should instead rest on someone else's laurels and save ours for a special occasion.

No! That's not what I intended to say when I started typing. What I meant to say was: as I looked through the charts last night I found several... "counterexamples" isn't exactly the right word, because they're not conclusive -- but in that vein. Basically, charts that aren't quite playing along with the bear thesis (yet, anyway). Let me show an example of what I mean:

NYA and BKX are also not looking... exactly "bearish" at this moment. Again: yet. They could always resolve that later... OR: maybe they're warning signs for bears. It's a little early to say, but I'd be remiss not to mention it.

Point is, markets are dynamic and the situation -- via INDU, NYA, BKX -- is, for the moment, seemingly in flux. So we should at least entertain the possibility that the bear case may not be quite the slam dunk it looked like a couple days ago. Maybe that will resolve in bears' favor in the next few sessions. But we should stay open, in case it doesn't.

Looking at the bear side of things, we have SPX (and COMPQ looks similar):

In conclusion, SPX looks straightforward, but there's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now. And that alone is cause to avoid complacency. Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: A Larger Impulse Down

2026-06-10T03:28:18.579-10:00

SPX did go on to form a larger impulse down, as suspected. I spent a lot more time than I anticipated on the charts, so we're long on charts and short on text body today. Let's start with intermediate SPX:

COMPQ, as promised:

Near-term SPX for a detailed look (typo: Occam's):

In conclusion, while a b-wave high is always possible (this would be bulls' lone remaining out, here), there's no clear evidence of one in the charts. Thus, the assumption should probably be that the trend is now down, until proven otherwise.

Note that it's hard to detail this without cluttering the charts, but something that approximates a retest of the high prior to the next down leg is "not impossible" in this scenario. We'll play it by ear if bulls sustain trade out of the crash channel. Trade safe.