Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis

SPX and COMPQ: The Market Shows Respect for Ancient History

2026-11-09T01:52:04.921-10:00

Friday's market went nowhere, so no change from that update. It is interesting to note that SPX was rejected on its first attempt to get back over the old red trendline. If it does clear that, then blue will be the next zone to watch:

COMPQ is also stalled in the same location:

Other than that, nothing else to add. Things would probably still look better with another low -- unless the market wants to go for a long-term complex correction here and drag us sideways in a large range for another 4 to 6 months. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Update: The COMPQ Chart Knew It

2026-11-06T04:32:03.731-10:00

Three months ago now, I started suggesting that COMPQ's low was a b-wave -- and then the market got weirder and weirder, so it got to the point where I was no longer sure (not that I'm ever "sure," but you know what I mean).

But it turns out that this chart was right all along. COMPQ actually nailed the black C-wave label as originally drawn, ending yesterday's session just above it -- but I moved it lower and a little to the right today, since it might need more down.

SPX, too, has finally vindicated my belief that the crazy pattern back in June and July was not an Elliott triangle. In real time, I went on the record stating why it didn't work as a true Elliot triangle. Then it rallied like crazy, but even after the rally, I stuck to my guns (because it was, in my view, clearly not a triangle) and said it was either a rare running flat or a b-wave low.

Some readers were upset that I "missed" the "triangle" -- and I get that, losing money sucks. But it was never a triangle and that's what stops are for. I read it right, but B-wave lows such as this one are simply unpredictable ahead of time -- and hence they often catch everyone off guard because they end earlier than every other pattern would end. That's simply the nature of the beast.

In conclusion, turns out that -- despite how annoying and unpredictable this market has been -- my best guess reads were largely accurate. At this point, SPX does look like it probably needs some more down to complete its pattern... though be aware that they can always turn this into another b-wave low and temporarily end it shy of where it "should" end. There are no perfect systems that can foresee everything, there are only probabilities. Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Gnus is Still Gnus

2026-11-04T04:27:30.709-10:00

This is one of the most "no change since last update" updates in the history of... well, of updates. The market has chopped around and gone nowhere since last update, no key levels have been broken (though SPX futures did make a new low in the overnight, which could satisfy my instinct from last update that another low might be coming, so be careful).

If you don't recall last update, it may be worth revisiting (here).

I added an annotation to the trend line chart, though it's not new information, more like an old reminder:

No change to this one:

In conclusion, not much else to say that hasn't been said. SPX performed as expected and accomplished the bare minimum that it needed to accomplish, so we'll see if it feels compelled to give bears more goodies or if it's ready to return to the primary trend (i.e.- the bull market). Trade safe.

SPX Update: Not as Easy as It Looks

2026-11-02T03:24:38.872-10:00

Last Monday, I wrote:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below [Friday's] low.

And that's exactly what happened. Things feel a little trickier now, because the market is back into a sort-of meaningless price zone and doesn't have much on its "need to do" list now. It already resolved the most likely b-wave and captured its downside target. If it wants, it could absolutely go for more downside over the near-term -- but it has several options and doesn't "need" to do that.

So, while more downside looks possible, it's higher risk to chase that from the current price zone. In part because this market has been so in love with complex corrections, and who's to say it doesn't opt for another one now?

From an emotional standpoint, the best entries usually look scary while the worst entries often feel safe.

Anyway, if I had my druthers, I might think we bounce and then head lower again... but my confidence level is appropriately low. Not all reads are actionable. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: SPX Does Exactly as Predicted, Go Figure

2026-10-30T03:28:44.875-10:00

So despite Monday's angst over the absolute state of the charts, the market is doing exactly what I'd finally landed on as most likely:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's [note:i.e.- Friday's] low.

SPX rallied up to the mid to high 7700s, and is now set to gap down into the area of Friday's low.

It also followed Wednesday's suggestion:

If that blue count is right, then SPX might pop over red in a head fake (though it doesn't have to).

It did actually pop over red by a few points (and ES exceeded it more substantially than that).

So, I mean... everything is going swimmingly. Granted, SPX did peak a few points shy of where I'd drawn it, but hey, I called two turns in advance; I'm not a crystal ball lol.

The trend line chart remains worthwhile:

COMPQ is in about the same place, but still on the right track:

One thing worth watching here: since SPX stalled a hair shy of where I thought it might, the possibility exists that it forms a more complex double-retrace here, so don't automatically assume that if it breaks Friday's low, it's going to drop like a rock. It might -- but it's well within its rights to bounce right back up to this week's high beforehand. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: 7700s Captured, Now What

2026-10-28T03:26:11.657-10:00

Last update noted:

Holy cow, this market just sucks.

And that has since been proven correct.

Wait, that's not what I meant to say.

I meant to say, last update noted:

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's low.

And that has since played out -- at least, the first part (the rally). We'll see on the second part, and while that still looks most reasonable to me, the chart below shows part of why I wouldn't be surprised if it's wrong. Spoiler: "why" is because it reversed right off the first black c-wave target from 16 days ago:

So if the rally just keeps running, don't be surprised.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the red trend line overhead. If that blue count is right, then SPX might pop over red in a head fake (though it doesn't have to). But if the black c-wave is right, then it will just run over it and on to new highs.

Nothing new in COMPQ:

In conclusion, while the blue count on the first chart seems reasonable, we do have to be aware that SPX bottomed right at the old black c-wave... so we should stay alert to that as a live possibility. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Something I've Never Said in 15+ Years of Updates

2026-10-26T01:51:38.106-10:00

I've been publishing these updates here, at Minyanville, at Investing.com, and other places for more than 15 years now -- which means literally thousands of updates (2,300+, to be exact) -- and in all that time, I have never once said the following:

Holy cow, this market just sucks.*

The problem isn't that I can't find a pattern here -- the problem is that I can find 20 patterns. So I'll tell you what looks most reasonable to me, but my confidence is low and if something entirely different shows up, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.

What looks most reasonable is for SPX to rally back into the 7700s (potentially even mid to high 7700s) and then decline again below yesterday's low.

Probably the two bigger picture counts that seem the most rational are the b-wave I've drawn on COMPQ, or some kind of bull nest.

But I've always done my best to call like I see it and not give readers a false sense of confidence when that's unwarranted (imo, a certain breed of analyst projects unjustified confidence because most people don't tolerate uncertainty very well, not because it's the best approach) -- and the reality is: there are 50 other micro patterns that could all fit, and since we're sixty-four months into a trading range now (might not be that many, I'd have to look at a calendar), almost nothing is reliable or high-probability anymore, within this range.

So here's COMPQ again:

Here's SPX:

We can keep watching the trend lines on the SPX chart, those have proven useful. And, I mean, COMPQ has been doing exactly what it's supposed to for the B-wave count, so maybe I'm just being too nitpicky with the charts... but be careful out there. Trade safe.

*Not that I've never expressed frustration with a market in 15+ years, just I've never said it like that.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-10-23T00:55:48.048-10:00

Last update, we were watching the overhead trendlines to see if bulls could manage a breakout, but SPX couldn't hold above them:

I haven't updated COMPQ in a while, because there's literally nothing to add -- on October 5, I said it was "getting to be about time for COMPQ to decide" if it wanted to go with the B-wave, and it reversed shortly thereafter. On October 9, I noted that they were "keeping it interesting" -- and they've made it even more interesting since, with a more substantial reversal off the black B label.

But because every single low (going all the way back to June on SPX) looks like a b-wave at some degree, there are no guarantees as to which one they're aiming to resolve. The most bearish one is the one mentioned above (7200s for SPX), which aligns with the one in black on the chart below. But I can't promise they aren't aiming to resolve one of the higher ones:

Not much else to add beyond that. Trading ranges are rarely kind to rigid thinking. Trade safe.

SPX Update: More Fun Than a Bucket of Monkeys

2026-10-21T00:02:29.578-10:00

Lots has happened since last update -- and yet, nothing has happened: the market is still range-bound, and is still in basically the same place.

[Note: typo on chart -- "immediate move into the bear count" should be "immediate move into the bull count"]

The trend line chart continues to prove valuable, with two tags of green since last update, and the market reacted to both:

In conclusion, we do seem to have some promising levels to watch, though the more times a market moves through a range, the less reliable individual price levels become. I do want to reiterate something, because anytime there's a near-term bear count, a handful of readers start thinking that means I'm predicting a new bear market -- but it does not mean that unless I explicitly say that. ABCs are corrections against the prevailing, not new bear markets. Anytime you see a count terminate in the "C" label, that means it's not expected to be permanent. Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Bit of an Understatement

2026-10-18T23:07:57.246-10:00

Last update noted: "SPX rallied up to red, which may act as resistance."
(note that was referring to what is the second chart in today's update, not the chart immediately below)

And that turned out to be a bit of an understatement.

SPX has now formed three waves down, so in the event of the bull count, it has enough waves for a complete correction. The bear count needs at least one more low toward one of the iterations of the black c-wave:

The chart below remains included because it contains some worthwhile trendlines (such as the red one that just rejected the market):

Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Preferred Path Followed; Diagonal Invalidates

2026-10-16T03:41:38.173-10:00

Since last update, the preferred path was the winner directionally. This is because -- particularly at times like this, when the market has been range-bound for a long time -- I'm sometimes forced to attempt to construct the larger counts in a sort of layered approach. Meaning I look first at what's most likely on the one-minute level, then say "okay, if that happens, then what are the possible patterns at the next level up?"

In this case, the one-minute read was correct, but the jury's still out on the larger read -- though we know it's not the diagonal as it was drawn:

On the next chart, SPX rallied up to red, which may act as resistance.

Nothing else to add. Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

2026-10-14T03:28:01.625-10:00

Futures are indicating a gap down of sufficient size to break through the rising gray trendline (which I didn't think was a meaningful trendline in the first place, hence why I drew it in gray) on the chart below. That's at least in the right direction for the blue path.

It is worth mentioning that the lower blue trendline on the above chart exists mainly in my imagination; it's not perfectly derived from anything on the price charts -- other than the potential macro pattern.

I did add a notation about the possible bull count on the chart below. I'm discounting that count because the lows look unresolved -- but stranger things have happened, so it's not an impossible count by any means:

Not much else to add at this stage. Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Very Detailed SPX Chart

2026-10-12T03:22:32.681-10:00

Today is Indigenous People of Columbus, Ohio Day (or something like that), where we either celebrate or lament the discovery of America, depending on our political affiliations. What that means, in practical terms, is that the Federal Reserve is closed but the stock market is open. And that means I still have to do an update, but with fewer jokes about the Fed.

In honor of those brave people of Ohio, I have spent much time preparing a carefully-detailed near-term chart for readers:

The chart annotation says:

There are two main near-term options here:

1. The diagonal option is shown in blue and fits well with the apparent 3-wave natures of waves i and iii (in gray is an alternate version of the diagonal).

2. The b-wave low option is in black and would be expected to retest/break 7616 first, potentially creating a range bound market for several weeks. It does have some potential for ~7500 as well (lower odds but can`t be ruled out).

3. The rising red line shows where the diagonal invalidates.

4. The b-wave option is more immediately bearish but then bullish. The diagonal option is, NEAR-TERM, more bullish -- but ultimately more bearish.

***

But let's round this out with another chart:

And now, with this additional chart above, we can add (5 and 6) to the list:

5. The diagonal would typically be expected to at least tag horizontal blue, but would likely reach the falling blue line.

6. Because diagonals are terminal patterns, it would not "need" to stop at those lines, though, and could fall toward ~7237 or below.

It might take a minute to sort through all that, but hopefully it's helpful for readers. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-10-09T03:21:22.378-10:00

Last update opined that SPX was likely headed for a test of red -- it did test red and initially bounced from that line... then fell through and is now trying to get back above.

COMPQ bumped its head on the black "B?" label, keeping that option alive:

In conclusion, in the event SPX can stage a rally, then we should probably watch the upper black trend line for the potential overthrow discussed last update (see 10/7 annotation on first chart). The pattern leading in to that would work quite well as a diagonal in progress, so "overthrow and whipsaw" would be a live threat. If it can't stay above red, then we should watch the rising green line next. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and GOLD: A Big Warning Sign for Gold Bulls

2026-10-07T03:27:08.314-10:00

Finally, there are new things to say about SPX -- and the chart annotation says most of them:

COMPQ is in the same place:

Long-time readers know I've been bullish on gold for more than six years... but if gold bulls can't hold the recent swing low, things could get pretty ugly there, with a drop of 30-40% very possible:

Not much else to say that isn't already on the charts. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Still in the Range

2026-10-05T03:28:48.317-10:00

Since last update, SPX rallied up into its potential target zone:

COMPQ did get another high:

SPX remains range-bound for now and is still covering the same ground, so anything I could add here would just be rehashing everything that's been said already, over the past several weeks. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and Shakespeare Updates: Near-term Call Worked

2026-10-02T03:28:07.934-10:00

Last update insultingly (for SPX) found its then-recent effort to form a low "unconvincing" -- and suggested new lows were likely. That worked out.

Nothing happened in COMPQ, so it's still in the same place:

Other than the near-term hit, not much to add. Lots of noise and little that one could take to the bank right now. I believe it was Shakespeare who penned the famous quote about this market: "SPX is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, but signifying nothing." Hard to argue with that. Trade safe.

COMPQ and SPX: "Wonky-Tonk Woman"

2026-09-30T03:24:39.031-10:00

There's been a little movement since last update, but it was unconvincing. By that, I mean it doesn't form an easily recognizable complete pattern. I suppose it could be a wonky WXY, but that would be pretty... well, pretty wonky. Not impossible, though, in all fairness.

No change to the bigger picture:

COMPQ avoided a new near-term low -- so far:

Not much to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, TLT: TLT Finally Validates Expectations from 2022/2024

2026-09-28T03:26:08.442-10:00

Quite a few readers have asked me to update my old bond chart, so I'll do that today and we'll look at that one last. First, let's breeze through COMPQ and SPX, which haven't done much since Friday. COMPQ first:

SPX has similar options:

Now the chart everyone's been asking for. TLT has finally confirmed my long-term count -- the chart annotation has the latest:

Finally, here's a chart I published four years ago -- updated only with the latest changes to the chart itself. I show this because looking at "what happened afterwards" can help people train their eye to visualize how these things progress:

Not much else to say beyond all that. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Inflecting at the Inflection

2026-09-25T03:23:09.906-10:00

So, courtesy of Super El Nino (which sounds like a low budget comic book hero from south of the border: "¡Mira! Up in the sky! It's a pájaro, it's an avion... it's Super El Nino!"), we have yet another hurricane expected to wreak havoc on us this weekend. This will be the fourth named storm to impact us since mid-August. My instinct is -- despite the projections that Hurricane Nolo will become a category 3 "major" hurricane -- that this one will not hit us quite as bad as Hurricane Lala did... but I wanted to mention it just in case I'm wrong and Hawaii disappears beneath the Pacific and there's no update on Monday.

It's actually kind of amazing that we've been hit by two "L-named" storms, an "M" storm, and now an "N" -- at this rate, by the time we reach the end of the alphabet, I'll be hunting boar with spears and posting updates using smoke signals. Just fair warning.

Since last update, SPX found resistance and declined. As I wrote on Monday:

[A]s SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).

For the moment, this decline leaves the market range-bound in a sort of no man's land:

COMPQ reversed right at the black B-label but I want to caution that this reversal does not yet confirm said b-wave, and another high is not at all off the table yet. My eye tends to locate inflection points by reflex and I usually stick the labels there -- so the market reacting to the inflection doesn't immediately prove that the label's right (it just proves that I accurately identified the likely inflection point).

In conclusion, I've given a lot of warnings in this update about "this could still be something else," and it could -- but of course, on the flip side, this move is exactly what bears would want to see, so we'll find out soon enough if they can keep pushing or not. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: COMPQ Confirms Read from August 26

2026-09-23T03:29:16.164-10:00

COMPQ finally confirmed the micro b-wave high (from August 26) and WXY count from September 9. I would like it noted in the Official Record that on August 26, our house was running on a portable generator and my mobile hotspot wasn't working right... so while it was not the hardest call I've ever published, it was -- hands down -- the least convenient.

SPX has been stuck in neutral since Monday's update, so just a new melt up trendline and not much new to say about it:

In conclusion, COMPQ now needs to decide if the July low was a b-wave that needs to be cleaned up or not. At this point -- due to the larger pattern -- if it does decline to that zone, it would most likely just be a scary correction and probably not the end of the bull market. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-09-21T03:25:43.644-10:00

There are no real changes since Friday's update, since SPX has continued to bounce off the blue trend line. Worth mentioning that even though everything is so far performing in line with a WXY, as SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).

COMPQ is closing in on the upside zone that I mentioned on Friday:

Not much to add beyond that. Do keep in mind what I mentioned not too long ago: even if SPX makes a new all-time-high (which it would if the WXY count is true), the possibility exists for that high to be micro wave 5 to the rally off the July low, which (if that were to be the case) would be followed by a potentially-larger correction. So, while sometimes new all-time highs can, of themselves, signal an "all clear" for bulls -- this is not one of those cases. Doesn't mean the rally can't continue, just means that from a technical standpoint here, a new high would not be enough by itself. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Trendlines and Powerlines

2026-09-18T03:21:31.445-10:00

So after 4 weeks and 5 figures, we finally have power and internet again. Hurrah. There's a long and convoluted story there if anyone ever wants to hear it -- but either way, years from now, when some news report mentions that "after Hurricane Lala, some people in Hawaii were without power for a month!" you can say, "Yeah, I know one of them."

Since last update, the value of the SPX trend line chart proved itself again:

COMPQ held above its key zone as well:

In conclusion, the WXY I've talked about for a while remains very much on the table for now. In the event bears were to sustain breakdowns at support, though, then bulls should become very cautious. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Warshing the Fed

2026-09-16T03:15:16.031-10:00

So today is a Fed day (there are probably now at least 40 updates that begin with those exact words), and it's interesting to note that the pattern has turned bi-modal right on schedule. We can see this on the SPX chart below:

COMPQ is also attempting to dissolve my prior reticence about the black B-wave being complete. It's not entirely there yet, but it's approaching the edge:

I think the biggest issue for bulls here is that the COMPQ count, if it's correct, wants to pull COMPQ lower one way or another. Five weeks ago, when I first published that count, it seemed almost ridiculous in light of the strong up-move we were (then) right in the midst of... but now that the market has burned off all its prior upward momentum, it's a lot easier to countenance.

So I think the takeaway here is that bulls should be watching their backs pretty carefully right now. I can't go so far as to say it's a lock for bears... but this market's ice is thin. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Below Resistance, Above Support (for now)

2026-09-13T23:33:48.531-10:00

Today's update is being published early because I'm too exhausted to stay up any later. I've been dealing with electricians and utility companies and general house-related disasters all weekend and am running on fumes right now. On the bright side, there does finally seem to be light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it's not an oncoming train.

Last update said:

[T]he first resistance line is black, so bulls will need to sustain trade above that to prove their mettle. Conversely, bears will need to sustain trade beneath the falling blue trend line to prove theirs.

SPX then rallied up to black and got rejected, so bulls haven't proven their case yet:

The chart pretty well explains the situation, so probably no need to rehash that here. Trade safe.