Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis

SPX and INDU: Market Performs as Expected -- But Withholds Confirmation

2026-07-27T03:11:22.762-10:00

Monday's update noted:

INDU did break the low I flagged as likely to be broken, but the wave is still a little shorter than ideal. Not impossible for it to end there, but normally I'd think it's either not done yet or something along the lines of the black sketch is in store.

INDU has since made another low, so it was indeed "not done yet" (worth noting that the black sketch referenced above also ultimately projected lower prices, so the options were "down now, or down later"):

SPX managed to drop right down to the inflection zone I mentioned back on July 7 -- and bounce. Which means bears do not yet have confirmation that the next "real" wave down is underway, and the annoyingly complex correction could continue if the market wants:

Near-term SPX below... recall that on July 13, I noted that other versions of the triangle were possible -- those other versions are one of the things keeping some of the ambiguity alive for now.

In conclusion, Monday's update wave directionally correct on two fronts (SPX's projection showed the market heading up, then down, which it did) and this may be the start of blue C down... but due to the bounce at lower red, the market has kept its options open for now. If bears can sustain trade below lower red, then the probability that wave c down is already underway will increase. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: INDU Hits First Projected Target, What Now?

2026-07-20T02:31:13.496-10:00

The market has continued to be exceptionally weird, but so far, it's performed in-line directionally with the WXY count. The chart below outlines some contingencies looking out into the future, since I'll be taking some personal time on Wednesday and Friday and the updates will return on Monday.

INDU did break the low I flagged as likely to be broken, but the wave is still a little shorter than ideal. Not impossible for it to end there, but normally I'd think it's either not done yet or something along the lines of the black sketch is in store:

In conclusion, I've tried to cover the bases in the event the WXY goes off the rails, but so far, it's done what bears would hope. That doesn't guarantee anything, especially as strange as this market has been, but it's obviously preferable to it having blown through the ATH and ignored the count entirely. At least the inflection zone was good. I'll see you on Monday -- trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates: So Far, So Basically Okay

2026-07-17T03:15:05.931-10:00

Last update noted that there weren't any clearly impulsive declines yet and hence another high for wave Y shouldn't be surprising -- and SPX did make another high since. It has also reversed right off the Y inflection zone, which keeps things interesting:

Last update also noted that INDU's pattern would normally see lower prices before having a shot at recovery, so we'll see if bears can knock it down further on this round -- or if the market wants to mess with everyone's heads some more.

In conclusion, I've included targets for Wave C down -- IF this is indeed Wave C down -- but SPX was rejected right in the Y inflection zone just after making the anticipated new high... so that's about all that bears could ask for at this stage. We'll see how it develops from here. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

2026-07-15T03:29:03.393-10:00

Since last update, bears did stall the rally for a bit, but the decline that formed is not clearly impulsive. Note this does NOT say "clearly not impulsive," it says "not clearly impulsive," which means it doesn't appear to be an impulse but I can't rule that out. We also cannot currently rule out that it's a partial structure (for example, 1-2 down, not a complete impulse).

But... it's "not clearly impulsive," so we shouldn't be surprised if SPX just rallies up to another high here. No change on the SPX chart. Y could support another high, though doesn't need it.

INDU is more interesting:

On Monday, a reader asked if Y needs to make a new ATH, and it does not -- in fact, in bears' best world, it would not. Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: The B-Movie Market

2026-07-13T03:14:35.237-10:00

SPX finally invalidated the triangle option as drawn, so at least that's progress of a sort:

We haven't looked at the big picture chart in a month and a half, primarily because there's been nothing to update:

NYA is still roughly in the same place (structurally) that it was on Friday:

Other than the triangle invalidating, there's not a lot to talk about -- for the near-term, it remains a Harlequin Romance "will they/won't they?" market for the moment. Basically, bears need to stop the rally and develop a new near-term impulsive decline fairly soon. If they can't, then we're dealing with an expanded flat (if the market makes new highs then reverses in a c-wave decline) or watching a new minute-level bull nest develop in SPX -- both options would be decidedly bullish at higher degree, one just takes an indirect route. Bears would need to reverse this shy of the all-time high to keep anything other than short-term options open. Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, and the Beard Updates

2026-07-10T03:23:21.759-10:00

Last update ended with us "watching to see if bears can do anything with this": and they did -- and didn't. Bears got a nice decline but then bulls rushed in to buy, flush with fresh cash from predatory payday loans dropped from drone helicopters piloted by Ben "the Beard" Bernanke from his cave on Alcatraz.

Which means we're still basically in the same place we've been all week:

The triangle and WXY both remain live for now:

Finally, I want to call bears' attention to NYA, which I've mentioned a few times in conjunction with INDU going back to June 12, when I wrote:

[T]here's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now. And that alone is cause to avoid complacency. Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally.

That larger rally has since materialized -- and NYA is still cause for bears to be on guard, as explained below:

In conclusion, bears are clinging to technical hope for the time being, but they are running thin on real estate, so if they're going to get something going, they'll need to do so soon. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Why Not Try Angle?

2026-07-08T03:09:30.238-10:00

Last update noted that SPX could make another run at the black trendline, which it did:

This keeps the triangle alive:

For now, the WXY shown above also remains alive, since nothing has yet happened to invalidate it. Not much else to add at the moment, now it's just watching to see if bears can do anything with this. Trade safe.

SPX Update: In the Pedants' Day

2026-07-06T03:18:22.098-10:00

As those of you who've previously installed the Outlook Calendar app already know, America just successfully turned 250 years old -- so a Happy Belated Independence Day to all my fellow Americans.

The market has, not surprisingly, continued sideways-up ever since I drew the Most Frustrating Pattern in the World on the June 25.

But now it's about time for bears to either make good on this pattern or return to hibernation.

Not shown: INDU made a new all-time high on Thursday. SPX tested black:

In conclusion, bears have reached the first upside inflection zone, so we'll see if they can make good on it -- or if it was all just another Bear Head Trip™ caused by Ben Bernanke, huddled in his cave, sticking pins in bear voodoo dolls. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Structural Isomorphism

2026-07-01T03:06:26.361-10:00

Last update, titled "Still on Guard" ended with a warning:

[B]ears should be modestly cautious for now, because in the event the first leg up was a W and the decline since was X, then the market would be forming a larger WXY and a trip back to that all-time high from here isn't impossible. That would fit in the sense of explaining why this decline doesn't feel like a proper C wave, so worth keeping in mind.

And modestly cautious was probably a good stance. As I noted on Friday, the decline was bothering me and just didn't feel right for a C-wave:

SPX is behaving a bit oddly given that this is supposed to be a C-wave decline -- it's rare that A waves (the last decline) are more relentless than C-waves. This means that either the C-wave is just warming up and it will rectify itself soon... or that something more annoying is afoot.

At this point, we can probably make a pretty good argument that it's likely it was indeed not yet the actual C-wave. It's likely either the triangle that I proposed on Friday, or the WXY that I mentioned on Monday. The trick is that these two options (triangle/WXY) are, at this phase, observationally isomorphic -- essentially, they're identical wave structures (ABCs), with the difference being the final length of the wave, not the structure itself. Since we can only see the structure at this phase (we obviously can't see the length until it's actually completed), the distinction remains uncertain.

In other words, the reason this is difficult is not because I’m hedging or being vague. It’s because the two viable structures produce the same observable evidence at this stage. The difference in these two comes LATER in the pattern: The triangle forms a series of contracting ABC structures, while the WXY simply forms two similar ABC rally structures, with a smaller ABC in-between (the X wave).

Which means, in short, that you simply cannot tell the difference at this phase -- they would and should both look exactly the same right now. Which, of course, makes it functionally impossible to anticipate which it is. The second chart following this one will help us make that determination (possibly).

I've added the WXY in black on the chart below:

So, the next thing to watch is the black line that I discussed on June 25: If SPX sustains trade back above, then we may be looking at the WXY. If it gets rejected here/at the red line, then we may be looking at the triangle. This isn't foolproof -- corrections are always less predictable than impulses -- but it's the best we've got at this phase.

In conclusion, I'm going to lean toward the triangle slightly just because it was my first instinct back on Friday, and my first instinct usually has a slight edge -- but that's far from being guaranteed, so take it with a grain of salt. Of course, given that nothing in life is guaranteed, there's also always the possibility that something more bullish than either of these counts is afoot, so we should never forget that the market is probabilistic, not deterministic. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Still on Guard

2026-06-29T00:49:42.579-10:00

On Friday, SPX did "the thing" again, where it basically goes nowhere. Accordingly, no real change since last update:

The triangle isn't off the table yet, though I redrew it slightly, to try to better align (what is essentially a guess) with the ever-changing variables:

Nothing else to add beyond that, really -- though bears should be modestly cautious for now, because in the event the first leg up was a W and the decline since was X, then the market would be forming a larger WXY and a trip back to that all-time high from here isn't impossible. That would fit in the sense of explaining why this decline doesn't feel like a proper C wave, so worth keeping in mind. Trade safe.

Gold, Oil, SPX, INDU -- and the Most Frustrating Pattern in the World

2026-06-25T21:38:00.632-10:00

Lots of interesting goings-on since last update, so let's get right to it.

Gold recently captured its next downside target, published exactly three months ago:

Oil has been behaving according to its preferred count, which has been a big win no matter what happens next:

SPX is behaving a bit oddly given that this is supposed to be a C-wave decline -- it's rare that A waves (the last decline) are more relentless than C-waves. This means that either the C-wave is just warming up and it will rectify itself soon... or that something more annoying is afoot (more on that shortly).

On June 12, I warned that INDU and NYA didn't seem to be playing along and that this was cause for bears to be on guard. While SPX was busy clowning around, INDU actually made a new all-time high yesterday:

As promised, here's the "something more annoying"/"Most Frustrating." The potential exists for the current wave to NOT be wave C yet, but to be part of a triangle B-wave. I do have to give a shout-out to forum member 1FE who, although I think he was talking about a different triangle, may have played a role in planting the triangle idea in my subconscious.

So the triangle's not a given or anything, but it's something to keep in our minds as a live possibility for now.

In conclusion, Gold has performed as expected and captured its next target -- and may have further to fall if gold bulls can't hold it here. Oil has performed as expected. SPX is, technically, performing as expected directionally, but the choppy nature of the decline is enough to send up a caution flag to watch for the triangle. Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change But the Typo

2026-06-24T03:22:55.044-10:00

SPX is so far behaving in accord with the larger preferred count, though the near-term has been behaving a bit goofier than it was last time.

Note there was a typo on Monday's chart targets (the first number in the first target range was too broad and had accidentally inherited the prefix of the second range):

No changes (other than to correct that typo) so far. Trade safe.

SPX Update: It Was Easier When It Was Hard

2026-06-22T03:30:57.368-10:00

On June 12, I mentioned that "there's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now. And that alone is cause to avoid complacency. Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally."

So I'm going to present the bear case but instead of blinding assuming everything will go according to plan, we're going to talk about all the ways it could go wrong.

Let's start with the near-term chart:

What's bothering me on that chart is Thursday's action -- which has three options:

1. It's a b-wave high in progress, which likely leads to the black path.

2. It's part of an ending diagonal, which would rally just a hair more but then be more bearish than black.

3. It's a micro bull nest -- which could lead to a rough retest of 7577 (+/-) and potentially even new all-time highs. If it breaks over 7512 immediately and begins to gain momentum, bears should watch out for this option.

Next up is the intermediate chart, which now features a couple of "early bearish partial confirmation" trend lines:

In conclusion, this is the inflection: As long as bears hold below 7578, they have excellent odds. Option 3 above would act as the first early-warning signal (though that MIGHT only lead to a rough retest of 7578, it still wouldn't be ideal for bears to see). We likewise have early warning signals for bulls (the trend lines). Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

2026-06-17T03:30:34.303-10:00

On June 12, I talked about how INDU and NYA didn't seem to be playing along with the bear case, and both have since made new highs.

SPX has now rallied up to the rough retest of its prior high:

So bears probably can't afford too much more rally if they want to get a C-wave down. I do suspect that if SPX forms another scary wave down, this is probably not the end of the bull market yet, based on INDU and NYA -- but I can't rule that out, of course. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Narrator: "It Did Not"

2026-06-15T03:30:57.294-10:00

Last update ended with: In conclusion, SPX looks straightforward, but there's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now. And that alone is cause to avoid complacency. Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally.

INDU did not break down -- in fact, it rallied:

And now SPX futures are indicating bears are indeed in for a larger rally:

So we'll just have to see how SPX does with its next inflection zones. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Holding the Bear Case to the Fire

2026-06-12T03:22:33.993-10:00

So SPX performed almost exactly as drawn on the black projection in the prior update, but that doesn't mean we should rest on our laurels. We should instead rest on someone else's laurels and save ours for a special occasion.

No! That's not what I intended to say when I started typing. What I meant to say was: as I looked through the charts last night I found several... "counterexamples" isn't exactly the right word, because they're not conclusive -- but in that vein. Basically, charts that aren't quite playing along with the bear thesis (yet, anyway). Let me show an example of what I mean:

NYA and BKX are also not looking... exactly "bearish" at this moment. Again: yet. They could always resolve that later... OR: maybe they're warning signs for bears. It's a little early to say, but I'd be remiss not to mention it.

Point is, markets are dynamic and the situation -- via INDU, NYA, BKX -- is, for the moment, seemingly in flux. So we should at least entertain the possibility that the bear case may not be quite the slam dunk it looked like a couple days ago. Maybe that will resolve in bears' favor in the next few sessions. But we should stay open, in case it doesn't.

Looking at the bear side of things, we have SPX (and COMPQ looks similar):

In conclusion, SPX looks straightforward, but there's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now. And that alone is cause to avoid complacency. Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: A Larger Impulse Down

2026-06-10T03:28:18.579-10:00

SPX did go on to form a larger impulse down, as suspected. I spent a lot more time than I anticipated on the charts, so we're long on charts and short on text body today. Let's start with intermediate SPX:

COMPQ, as promised:

Near-term SPX for a detailed look (typo: Occam's):

In conclusion, while a b-wave high is always possible (this would be bulls' lone remaining out, here), there's no clear evidence of one in the charts. Thus, the assumption should probably be that the trend is now down, until proven otherwise.

Note that it's hard to detail this without cluttering the charts, but something that approximates a retest of the high prior to the next down leg is "not impossible" in this scenario. We'll play it by ear if bulls sustain trade out of the crash channel. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Both Downside Targets Captured

2026-06-08T03:24:44.425-10:00

Last update noted that we had a new "impulsive looking" decline -- and the market confirmed that and captured both its downside targets -- plus.

The chart below looks out a little further into more speculative territory, just so readers have an idea of some of the things we should be watching here next:

In conclusion, the near-term impulsive decline begot a second impulsive decline, as it normally should. Now we're on watch to see if these turn into a still-larger impulsive decline (five complete waves). Right now, it's still three waves down. The upcoming sessions will be important, though I think bulls would want to be cautious if it sustains trade much below ~7330 in the meantime, even without a full five wave structure (see annotation on second chart). Trade safe.

SPX Update: Not from Our Universe

2026-06-05T03:09:18.543-10:00

Last update noted:

There are some early signs that maybe it wants a correction here (that's what prompted me to draw those potential support lines) but that's not guaranteed.

Those early signs did play out and the market declined. Most of the time, I would expect another decline to follow. You'll of course forgive me for being modestly gun-shy in the current environment.

Assuming that impulse is indeed wave A or 1 down, then the next targets would be as shown below:

In conclusion, we have a new "impulsive looking" decline, so we'll see if that gives bears a moment in the sun or if the market pulls the rug on them again. Trade safe.

SPX Update: The Thin Red Lines

2026-06-03T03:23:22.517-10:00

SPX has been grinding sideways up since Friday, so there isn't a ton new to say about it -- but I have added a few new horizontal support zones to keep up with the recent price action.

In the event the green channel breaks down, those will be zones worth watching. Since we don't have any impulsive turns to draw projections from, this is about all we can do at this phase.

In conclusion, there's just not a lot to say about a market that behaves like this -- other than maybe: "market like this one are the reason trend channels were invented." There are some early signs that maybe it wants a correction here (that's what prompted me to draw those potential support lines) but that's not guaranteed. Trade safe.

SPX and Gold: Gold Worth Watching

2026-06-01T02:57:39.150-10:00

I'm suffering through another birthday today, so this update isn't going to be ultra-detailed, but I do have some noteworthy info about gold.

After capturing its first downside target and a good-sized bounce, gold retreated down below the black trendline. Gold bulls probably want to be cautious if it sustains trade down here because, as noted previously, that would put a test of blue on the table as a live option.

Of note, I realized today that Stockcharts had shifted the red trendline (something it sometimes does on its own on old charts with long time frames) -- I have corrected its location from the prior chart. Red technically becomes the first zone on sustained trade below black, THEN blue. The annotation has been updated to reflect this.

SPX is still in its uptrend, so nothing to add here for now:

That's about all the news that's fit to print at the moment. Trade safe.

Gold and SPX: Gold Captures Downside Target

2026-05-29T03:18:52.517-10:00

Gold has officially captured its downside target zone (4350-4400) from May 11 -- and is now bouncing off of that zone:

Bigger picture, the recent low in gold aligns with the red trendline. As long as that line holds, bulls are in good shape. If gold sustains trade below that, bulls will want to become cautious, because blue could come into play, particularly if this year's lows were to fail:

SPX has continued higher since last update:

In conclusion, gold captured its targets and SPX is still within its latest version of the green channel, so nothing much to add as long as those conditions continue. If SPX sustains trade below green, that would be a sign that the uptrend might be pausing... but given how resilient this market has been, we'll have to play it by ear from there. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: INDU Back from the Dead

2026-05-27T03:03:28.314-10:00

There have been whispers for a while now.

"INDU," people said, usually quietly among close friends, "that used to be a market when I was young. Now look at it! Stuck below blue forever. It was fun while it lasted."

But then, just as INDU was about to be permanently delisted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (don't ask me how that would work, I just report the news), it broke above blue and made a new all-time high.

Moving on to SPX: in Wednesday's update, I wrote, "the odds are better than 50% that we now have an impulsive decline in place, though I can't entirely rule out an ABC structure." I either assessed the odds wrong on Wednesday, or the minority percentage showed up.

To be fair, by Friday, I was already reassessing those initial odds and wrote "INDU's new high forces more consideration of the ABC count."

And it turned out it was indeed an ABC decline. I guess, considering that Wednesday was the first time I leaned even short-term bearish during ~1,000+ points of rally, that's an error I'm okay with owning.

I noted on Friday that the near-term rally off the red target line (the dashed horizontal line on the chart above) was forming an overlapping structure, which implied it was either corrective or a micro bull nest. We should now assume it was indeed a micro bull nest, which implies the rally will need some 4/5 unwinds before the next inflection.

That said, for the simple reason that expanded flats can show up unpredictably, we should also at least remain alert to the (almost always live) potential of the new high being a large b-wave with a revisit of the recent low in C.

Big picture, SPX has performed as expected:

In conclusion, Wednesday was a whiff and bulls retain the ball. We're back to watching the green uptrend line and the next upside inflections. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Murk-to-Murket

2026-05-22T03:10:31.441-10:00

So of course, now INDU makes a new high -- at least, a new high for this recovery leg, if not a new all-time high yet.

That new high does at least open some questions in SPX:

Big picture, it might be worth keeping an eye on the rising green trend line as a simple support zone:

In conclusion, INDU's new high does add a bit more murk to the already less-than-crystal-clear water, so both sides probably want to stay on their toes until the picture clarifies a bit. Trade safe.

SPX Update: First Downside Targets Captured

2026-05-20T03:30:10.310-10:00

SPX captured Friday and Monday's first downside target zones:

Right now, there are wide error bars on a potential 2/B, given the structure. Essentially, a potential 2/B ranges from "already basically done" all the way up to "rough retest of the all-time high." Sorry I can't be more precise than that given what's on the charts at the moment:

In conclusion, the odds are better than 50% that we now have an impulsive decline in place, though I can't entirely rule out an ABC structure. Assuming it is an impulsive decline, we should see at least one more leg down of roughly equal length -- or much greater, if that's nested within a still-larger developing impulse. Trade safe.