Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis

SPX Update: A Bit of an Understatement

2026-10-18T23:07:57.246-10:00

Last update noted: "SPX rallied up to red, which may act as resistance."
(note that was referring to what is the second chart in today's update, not the chart immediately below)

And that turned out to be a bit of an understatement.

SPX has now formed three waves down, so in the event of the bull count, it has enough waves for a complete correction. The bear count needs at least one more low toward one of the iterations of the black c-wave:

The chart below remains included because it contains some worthwhile trendlines (such as the red one that just rejected the market):

Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Preferred Path Followed; Diagonal Invalidates

2026-10-16T03:41:38.173-10:00

Since last update, the preferred path was the winner directionally. This is because -- particularly at times like this, when the market has been range-bound for a long time -- I'm sometimes forced to attempt to construct the larger counts in a sort of layered approach. Meaning I look first at what's most likely on the one-minute level, then say "okay, if that happens, then what are the possible patterns at the next level up?"

In this case, the one-minute read was correct, but the jury's still out on the larger read -- though we know it's not the diagonal as it was drawn:

On the next chart, SPX rallied up to red, which may act as resistance.

Nothing else to add. Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

2026-10-14T03:28:01.625-10:00

Futures are indicating a gap down of sufficient size to break through the rising gray trendline (which I didn't think was a meaningful trendline in the first place, hence why I drew it in gray) on the chart below. That's at least in the right direction for the blue path.

It is worth mentioning that the lower blue trendline on the above chart exists mainly in my imagination; it's not perfectly derived from anything on the price charts -- other than the potential macro pattern.

I did add a notation about the possible bull count on the chart below. I'm discounting that count because the lows look unresolved -- but stranger things have happened, so it's not an impossible count by any means:

Not much else to add at this stage. Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Very Detailed SPX Chart

2026-10-12T03:22:32.681-10:00

Today is Indigenous People of Columbus, Ohio Day (or something like that), where we either celebrate or lament the discovery of America, depending on our political affiliations. What that means, in practical terms, is that the Federal Reserve is closed but the stock market is open. And that means I still have to do an update, but with fewer jokes about the Fed.

In honor of those brave people of Ohio, I have spent much time preparing a carefully-detailed near-term chart for readers:

The chart annotation says:

There are two main near-term options here:

1. The diagonal option is shown in blue and fits well with the apparent 3-wave natures of waves i and iii (in gray is an alternate version of the diagonal).

2. The b-wave low option is in black and would be expected to retest/break 7616 first, potentially creating a range bound market for several weeks. It does have some potential for ~7500 as well (lower odds but can`t be ruled out).

3. The rising red line shows where the diagonal invalidates.

4. The b-wave option is more immediately bearish but then bullish. The diagonal option is, NEAR-TERM, more bullish -- but ultimately more bearish.

***

But let's round this out with another chart:

And now, with this additional chart above, we can add (5 and 6) to the list:

5. The diagonal would typically be expected to at least tag horizontal blue, but would likely reach the falling blue line.

6. Because diagonals are terminal patterns, it would not "need" to stop at those lines, though, and could fall toward ~7237 or below.

It might take a minute to sort through all that, but hopefully it's helpful for readers. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-10-09T03:21:22.378-10:00

Last update opined that SPX was likely headed for a test of red -- it did test red and initially bounced from that line... then fell through and is now trying to get back above.

COMPQ bumped its head on the black "B?" label, keeping that option alive:

In conclusion, in the event SPX can stage a rally, then we should probably watch the upper black trend line for the potential overthrow discussed last update (see 10/7 annotation on first chart). The pattern leading in to that would work quite well as a diagonal in progress, so "overthrow and whipsaw" would be a live threat. If it can't stay above red, then we should watch the rising green line next. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and GOLD: A Big Warning Sign for Gold Bulls

2026-10-07T03:27:08.314-10:00

Finally, there are new things to say about SPX -- and the chart annotation says most of them:

COMPQ is in the same place:

Long-time readers know I've been bullish on gold for more than six years... but if gold bulls can't hold the recent swing low, things could get pretty ugly there, with a drop of 30-40% very possible:

Not much else to say that isn't already on the charts. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Still in the Range

2026-10-05T03:28:48.317-10:00

Since last update, SPX rallied up into its potential target zone:

COMPQ did get another high:

SPX remains range-bound for now and is still covering the same ground, so anything I could add here would just be rehashing everything that's been said already, over the past several weeks. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and Shakespeare Updates: Near-term Call Worked

2026-10-02T03:28:07.934-10:00

Last update insultingly (for SPX) found its then-recent effort to form a low "unconvincing" -- and suggested new lows were likely. That worked out.

Nothing happened in COMPQ, so it's still in the same place:

Other than the near-term hit, not much to add. Lots of noise and little that one could take to the bank right now. I believe it was Shakespeare who penned the famous quote about this market: "SPX is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, but signifying nothing." Hard to argue with that. Trade safe.

COMPQ and SPX: "Wonky-Tonk Woman"

2026-09-30T03:24:39.031-10:00

There's been a little movement since last update, but it was unconvincing. By that, I mean it doesn't form an easily recognizable complete pattern. I suppose it could be a wonky WXY, but that would be pretty... well, pretty wonky. Not impossible, though, in all fairness.

No change to the bigger picture:

COMPQ avoided a new near-term low -- so far:

Not much to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, TLT: TLT Finally Validates Expectations from 2022/2024

2026-09-28T03:26:08.442-10:00

Quite a few readers have asked me to update my old bond chart, so I'll do that today and we'll look at that one last. First, let's breeze through COMPQ and SPX, which haven't done much since Friday. COMPQ first:

SPX has similar options:

Now the chart everyone's been asking for. TLT has finally confirmed my long-term count -- the chart annotation has the latest:

Finally, here's a chart I published four years ago -- updated only with the latest changes to the chart itself. I show this because looking at "what happened afterwards" can help people train their eye to visualize how these things progress:

Not much else to say beyond all that. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Inflecting at the Inflection

2026-09-25T03:23:09.906-10:00

So, courtesy of Super El Nino (which sounds like a low budget comic book hero from south of the border: "¡Mira! Up in the sky! It's a pájaro, it's an avion... it's Super El Nino!"), we have yet another hurricane expected to wreak havoc on us this weekend. This will be the fourth named storm to impact us since mid-August. My instinct is -- despite the projections that Hurricane Nolo will become a category 3 "major" hurricane -- that this one will not hit us quite as bad as Hurricane Lala did... but I wanted to mention it just in case I'm wrong and Hawaii disappears beneath the Pacific and there's no update on Monday.

It's actually kind of amazing that we've been hit by two "L-named" storms, an "M" storm, and now an "N" -- at this rate, by the time we reach the end of the alphabet, I'll be hunting boar with spears and posting updates using smoke signals. Just fair warning.

Since last update, SPX found resistance and declined. As I wrote on Monday:

[A]s SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).

For the moment, this decline leaves the market range-bound in a sort of no man's land:

COMPQ reversed right at the black B-label but I want to caution that this reversal does not yet confirm said b-wave, and another high is not at all off the table yet. My eye tends to locate inflection points by reflex and I usually stick the labels there -- so the market reacting to the inflection doesn't immediately prove that the label's right (it just proves that I accurately identified the likely inflection point).

In conclusion, I've given a lot of warnings in this update about "this could still be something else," and it could -- but of course, on the flip side, this move is exactly what bears would want to see, so we'll find out soon enough if they can keep pushing or not. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: COMPQ Confirms Read from August 26

2026-09-23T03:29:16.164-10:00

COMPQ finally confirmed the micro b-wave high (from August 26) and WXY count from September 9. I would like it noted in the Official Record that on August 26, our house was running on a portable generator and my mobile hotspot wasn't working right... so while it was not the hardest call I've ever published, it was -- hands down -- the least convenient.

SPX has been stuck in neutral since Monday's update, so just a new melt up trendline and not much new to say about it:

In conclusion, COMPQ now needs to decide if the July low was a b-wave that needs to be cleaned up or not. At this point -- due to the larger pattern -- if it does decline to that zone, it would most likely just be a scary correction and probably not the end of the bull market. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

2026-09-21T03:25:43.644-10:00

There are no real changes since Friday's update, since SPX has continued to bounce off the blue trend line. Worth mentioning that even though everything is so far performing in line with a WXY, as SPX moves higher (and thus closer to resistance), bulls will want to gain more caution, not less -- since as yet we cannot "rule out" the more bearish options (such as a b-wave low).

COMPQ is closing in on the upside zone that I mentioned on Friday:

Not much to add beyond that. Do keep in mind what I mentioned not too long ago: even if SPX makes a new all-time-high (which it would if the WXY count is true), the possibility exists for that high to be micro wave 5 to the rally off the July low, which (if that were to be the case) would be followed by a potentially-larger correction. So, while sometimes new all-time highs can, of themselves, signal an "all clear" for bulls -- this is not one of those cases. Doesn't mean the rally can't continue, just means that from a technical standpoint here, a new high would not be enough by itself. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Trendlines and Powerlines

2026-09-18T03:21:31.445-10:00

So after 4 weeks and 5 figures, we finally have power and internet again. Hurrah. There's a long and convoluted story there if anyone ever wants to hear it -- but either way, years from now, when some news report mentions that "after Hurricane Lala, some people in Hawaii were without power for a month!" you can say, "Yeah, I know one of them."

Since last update, the value of the SPX trend line chart proved itself again:

COMPQ held above its key zone as well:

In conclusion, the WXY I've talked about for a while remains very much on the table for now. In the event bears were to sustain breakdowns at support, though, then bulls should become very cautious. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Warshing the Fed

2026-09-16T03:15:16.031-10:00

So today is a Fed day (there are probably now at least 40 updates that begin with those exact words), and it's interesting to note that the pattern has turned bi-modal right on schedule. We can see this on the SPX chart below:

COMPQ is also attempting to dissolve my prior reticence about the black B-wave being complete. It's not entirely there yet, but it's approaching the edge:

I think the biggest issue for bulls here is that the COMPQ count, if it's correct, wants to pull COMPQ lower one way or another. Five weeks ago, when I first published that count, it seemed almost ridiculous in light of the strong up-move we were (then) right in the midst of... but now that the market has burned off all its prior upward momentum, it's a lot easier to countenance.

So I think the takeaway here is that bulls should be watching their backs pretty carefully right now. I can't go so far as to say it's a lock for bears... but this market's ice is thin. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Below Resistance, Above Support (for now)

2026-09-13T23:33:48.531-10:00

Today's update is being published early because I'm too exhausted to stay up any later. I've been dealing with electricians and utility companies and general house-related disasters all weekend and am running on fumes right now. On the bright side, there does finally seem to be light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it's not an oncoming train.

Last update said:

[T]he first resistance line is black, so bulls will need to sustain trade above that to prove their mettle. Conversely, bears will need to sustain trade beneath the falling blue trend line to prove theirs.

SPX then rallied up to black and got rejected, so bulls haven't proven their case yet:

The chart pretty well explains the situation, so probably no need to rehash that here. Trade safe.

SPX Update: The Value of Proper Trend Lines

2026-09-11T03:16:52.015-10:00

In the last update, I wrote:

While it's fun to speculate, in reality, this remains a situation with multiple complex options, including WXYs and potential expanded flats at two different wave degrees. In such situations, I prefer to focus on trend lines and just let the market show us which route it's decided on.

The following chart was then attached:

SPX fell through black straight down to the blue horizontal. And as of the time of this writing, ES futures are indicating a big bounce off the blue horizontal, effectively demonstrating the value of this approach. Note the WXY is a corrective pattern that preserves the larger uptrend -- but the first resistance line is black, so bulls will need to sustain trade above that to prove their mettle. Conversely, bears will need to sustain trade beneath the falling blue trend line to prove theirs. Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Your Move, Mr. Market

2026-09-09T03:08:14.053-10:00

The market hasn't moved much since last update, leaving everything in basically the same place it was then.

While it's fun to speculate, in reality, this remains a situation with multiple complex options, including WXYs and potential expanded flats at two different wave degrees. In such situations, I prefer to focus on trend lines and just let the market show us which route it's decided on:

Not much else to say that wasn't already said last week. Refer back to those updates as needed for more detail. Trade safe.

SPX Update: We're Going to Need Your Keys

2026-09-04T03:26:39.318-10:00

Last update noted that SPX had come within 3 points of its downside target zone, and bulls have staged a solid bounce from that low. The rally ran straight up to the blue trend line I drew last update:

Nothing to add to this second chart:

This new chart is worth including, though, for those who aren't already intimately familiar with the technical minutiae of Elliott Wave:

Beyond that, there is a not-insignificant chance the current rally is wave 5 of the wave coming up from 7313. That doesn't guarantee it ends immediately or anything... but it does mean that bulls will want to keep their wits about them (just in case it does) and not be off drinking celebratory bull juice in need of a designated driver. Of course, this is not to imply that, even if this is wave 5, it would necessarily end the entire bull market -- but it could lead to a sharper correction (and we can never rule out that such a moment won't, in fact, end the bull market -- so there's that). Trade safe.

SPX Update: Meaningful Trend Lines

2026-09-02T03:27:51.163-10:00

Last update noted that bulls had failed to overlap their key level, leaving new lows on the table. Bears took advantage of that and took SPX down toward its next downside target zone:

Bigger picture, there are a couple meaningful trendlines nearby:

Not much else to add beyond that. No, I still don't have power. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Whose Line is it Anyway?

2026-08-31T03:20:35.260-10:00

(For those following the latest episodes of My Net Zero Life: on the plus side, this weekend Hawaiian Electric finally came to our house... on the negative side, they promptly informed us that our service cable had been ripped out through the weatherhead and that they couldn't reconnect our power until a licensed electrician repaired the damage. They also told us our situation was extremely hazardous (good to know that TWO WEEKS IN) and finally disconnected the live power line lying across the driveway. So we're still an unknown number of days from having power again, though after a million phone calls, I did find an electrician who can at least look at our house early this week, so we'll see how that goes. Along those lines (no pun intended), I'm completely exhausted right now -- but I promised an update today. Forgive me for keeping it short.)

Since last update, SPX stalled just shy of the level it needs:

Basically, SPX has left both options live for now -- but at least the levels it needs next are clear. Not much else to add beyond that. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates: [We Are Experiencing an Article Title Shortage Due to Hurricane After-Effects]

2026-08-28T03:08:58.116-10:00

So tomorrow will be two weeks without power and internet to our house -- and now my cell provider is having major ongoing problems with their "high speed" mobile hotspot (which I'm paying extra for) and I'm not even getting 1 Mb/s of data through their garbage connection... so today's update is going to be on the short side. Tomorrow, we'll be getting out of Dodge (again), this time until Wednesday (we have no idea how long to book our stays, since Hawaiian Electric is still unable to provide any kind of estimate as to how long it will be until they can repair our downed line).

Anyway, I'll do Monday and Wednesday's updates from the road.

Last update noted that SPX and COMPQ had potentially formed enough waves down for a complete C-wave decline, and that looks increasingly likely. This doesn't entirely rule out: 1) another wave down (though that seems like an underdog); 2) Some kind of stupidly complex correction like a WXY (which would form ANOTHER ABC down).

But the straightforward option (if the market doesn't want to opt for something more complex) is that the correction is over and it's on to new all-time highs.

Nothing to add to COMPQ:

In conclusion, no real change from last update -- the market has simply added confidence that it was correct. Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Hawaiian Electric Secretly Controlling the Market?

2026-08-26T01:59:31.773-10:00

Day 11 (base camp): Three days now since Jon ventured out to examine the downed power line; he still has not returned. The cats have begun cannibalizing the neighbors. This morning, I caught my wife attempting to (in her words) "watch the news" on a well-polished spoon. Hawaiian Electric is now actively refusing our phone calls. I think I've lost feeling in my right leg. On the plus side, our power consumption is the lowest it's ever been:

As we can see from the recently-recovered diary entry above, things are still pretty wild in Hawaii... but I'm going to push ahead with the update anyway. Interesting that SPX ran out of power basically the same time I did:

It's now getting into an area where we can count roughly five waves down (not entirely clear whether one more small wave down is still needed).

COMPQ is in a similar position -- near term, anyway:

In conclusion, given that the decline began about the same time our power went out, maybe if the market starts rallying again, Hawaiian Electric will finally decide to restore our power (ha). Market-wise, we're now getting into the zone where we'd expect a standard c-wave decline to consider bottoming soon. Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: First Downside Targets Captured

2026-08-19T03:27:50.334-10:00

Last update expanded (no pun intended) upon the potential for an expanded flat to be underway and gave ~7700 as the first target zone. SPX opened right on that zone yesterday:

Futures are bouncing this morning, so the market is at least respecting the inflection zone as being a real thing. Whether that bounce represents the start of the next leg up or not is still up in the air.

Interestingly, INDU also captured its casual "here's how it looks eyeballing it" target (from August 12), roughly to the point and almost to the hour:

In conclusion, the market has reached its first downside inflection, so if bulls want to run with it from here, they absolutely could. That said, the pattern could still support another low without any problems, so we'll see if the bounce becomes impulsive or not.

On a personal note, we are still without power and still have an energized power line lying across our driveway... so life isn't exactly back to normal here. I've decided it would be best to give my full attention to my family and step away from the market for an extended weekend -- so I'm going to take Friday and Monday off (including from trading, so the market's free to go wild!), and the updates will return on Wednesday. Many thanks for your understanding and support. Trade safe.

SPX Update: Hurricanes and the Market

2026-08-17T03:19:50.550-10:00

As those of you with internet access no doubt already know, Hawaii was hit with a hurricane on Saturday... so to say I've had an eventful weekend would be something of an understatement. Friday seems like a million years ago. I'm currently without power and hard-line internet, and up until a few hours ago, my family and I had spent the weekend physically trapped on our property by a downed power line and a large tree... so the update will be on the short side.

Amusingly, not only was this Hurricane named "Lala," apparently after winning the NHC's competition for Dumbest Possible Hurricane Name (thereby forever dooming those of us who lived through it to have to say stupid things like, "Sure, this is bad -- but it's not as bad as Lala." And: "You think this is windy? You kids should have seen Lala!" Causing future generations to assume we've developed some sort of bizarre verbal tic.).

Right -- NOT ONLY that, but amusingly, this last thing I wrote on Friday proved to be a hit (pun intended):

I have a feeling this one might actually do some damage (unlike most of the storms that head our way)...

Anyway, enough about me and Lala-la-la-la. Let's talk about something even more chaotic: SPX.

As we can see, SPX is keeping options open for a potential b-wave high, which (if it runs with that) would put us into another complex grind. We should learn during the next session or two if it wants to take that route, or if it intends to proceed with the more straightforward bull option. Trade safe.