War on the Rocks

Triumph or Procrastination? Experts Split on the Trump-Xi Summit

Sam Bresnick — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 17:30:48 +0000

Over the better part of three days, President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington for a summit that drew international attention for its high-stakes agenda, from trade and AI to Taiwan. While some experts saw the summit as an exercise in kicking the can down the road on major issues, others emphasized the significance of Trump treating Xi as an equal on the world stage. Read more below.Sam Bresnick Research Fellow and Andrew W. Marshall Fellow at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging TechnologyThe Xi-Trump summit yielded little progress on AI. Yes, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and

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Rated Ready is Not Ready: What America’s Korea Exercises Actually Measure

Alexei Hoffman — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 07:30:47 +0000

“We want to stop the North Koreans as far from Pusan as we can. Block the main road as far north as possible. Contact General Church. If you can’t locate him, go to Taejon and beyond if you can. Sorry I can’t give you more information. That’s all I’ve got. Good luck to you, and God bless you and your men.” -Maj. Gen. William F. Dean, orders to Lt. Col. Charles B. Smith, July 1, 1950, four days before Task Force Smith was overrun at Osan.The battery I served in at Camp Casey, South Korea, the 333rd Field Artillery Target

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Writing the Playbook: A Strategy and Doctrine for American Economic Security

Tim Welter — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 07:15:52 +0000

In January, this article series opened with a blunt question: Economic statecraft is back, but is America ready?Driving the question, in part, was the fact that the United States had not yet articulated (at least overtly) a strategy for economic statecraft. This was despite widening recognition that nations were increasingly using economic tools like tariffs and sanctions to pursue strategic objectives. U.S. awareness was particularly elevated by the realization during COVID-19 that decades of Chinese market manipulation, predatory trade behaviors, and security vulnerabilities deployed against its markets had gone unanswered.On the eve of the nation’s 250th anniversary, Treasury Secretary Scott

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What Will Hegseth’s “State of the Force” Reprise Reveal?

Peter Feaver — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 16:00:11 +0000

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to convene a high-profile meeting of military personnel for a “State of the Force” address this week. Will it show the U.S. armed forces as healthy? The answer may depend on how the audience responds, regardless of what Hegseth says. How the audience handles what could be one of the higher-visibility made-for-media events of the defense secretary’s tenure could tell us a lot about how the U.S. military has adjusted to President Donald Trump’s second term.Reporting on the event is spotty, which suggests the Pentagon’s leadership is still deciding whether to hold it,

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The Unhedgeable Bet: What the Future Combat Systems Can Teach Us About Acquisition

Andrew Tenbusch — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 08:00:27 +0000

The Pentagon describes Golden Dome for America as a “system of systems,” an integrated air and missile defense architecture that combines space-based sensors, orbital interceptors, ground systems, and a command network designed to defeat any aerial attack. Eighteen months after its founding executive order, the program broke ground on its first operational site. Its architecture remains so closely held that the Congressional Budget Office cannot fully price it, and cost estimates span from $252 billion to $3.6 trillion. The program also carries significant risk of failure, depending on how many tightly coupled, interdependent systems it attempts to integrate.One of the last

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The Discipline of Refusal: Constitutional Concerns About Lawful Orders in the U.S. Military

Kurt Shulkitas — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 07:30:47 +0000

Military doctrine gives officers a clear rule for manifestly unlawful orders: Refuse them. It offers no comparable rule when lawful action appears to threaten the constitutional structure the military serves. The first response is neither refusal nor resignation, but rather deliberative friction.Deliberative friction is the professional duty to raise a credible constitutional concern in a form that remains attributable and survives the decision to execute. The officer submits the concern in writing to the commander and copies an inspector general, while the authorized decision-maker retains control of execution. An individual officer will often see only a fragment of a larger

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The Manhattan Project Mindset: How Nuclear Analogies Are Steering AI Policy Off Course

Rebecca Gibbons — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 07:15:45 +0000

Analogies for artificial intelligence abound. In recent years, analysts have likened the development of AI to the advent of electricity, the Industrial Revolution, contact with extraterrestrials, and at least fifty other things. One analogy, however, appears to have won out over the rest: AI is like nuclear weapons.This comparison is now ubiquitous in government rhetoric, policy debates, and media accounts about AI. The risks of advanced AI are equated with the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons. There are several references to AI development as a modern-day Manhattan Project. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review’s 2024 Annual Report to Congress

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Why the Week’s Most Important Story Went Unwritten

Nicole Wiley — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 19:15:39 +0000

Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum, only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues shaping their country.American coverage often narrows the view to the battlefield — these pieces widen it, revealing the texture of daily life, politics, and public argument in a nation at war. The perspectives gathered here are varied, candid, and often surprising, together forming a more complete picture of Ukraine as it really is.Frontline and StrategyДзеркало

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Collective Defense in an Era of Tokens and Data Links

Adm. Pierre Vandier — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 08:00:19 +0000

NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, Adm. Pierre Vandier, returns to the studio to discuss how the alliance is continuously adapting to a new era of warfare driven by software, data, and uncrewed systems, and where it still lags. He explains why NATO is favoring field experimentation, how allies can build sovereign defense tech ecosystems without sacrificing interoperability, and what the right balance between unmanned and legacy platforms might look like.Image: 1st Sgt. Austin Berner via DVIDS.

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Speed to Fielding Is Not Speed to Combat Power

Michael Woodhouse — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 07:30:47 +0000

I spent more than 20 years in U.S. Army air defense, much of it in cramped control stations where the difference between a successful engagement and a catastrophic loss came down to the soldier at the console. The radar did its job. The fire control system did its job. But the responsibility, the weight, and the trust sat on one person making a call in seconds, sometimes less.Now I sit on the other side of the fence, as vice president of space, air, and missile defense for business development at Leonardo DRS. I work for a defense contractor with a

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Tracing the Future Soldier’s Tech Stack

Cogs of War Staff — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:00:28 +0000

Movies, shows, and books have long been at the forefront of imagining the future of war. If you were to picture the “future soldier,” you’d likely picture the genetically engineered super soldiers that have captivated — and horrified — audiences for decades. Soldiers have been depicted as being engineered or bred for super strength or speed, intense rage or cold calculation, and even half-human, half-machine.While Hollywood’s most alarmist visions for the future soldier are nothing more than fantasy, advances in technologies and AI are pushing the frontier of soldier technologies. Cogs of War staff wanted to sort through what capabilities have

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North Korea’s Irregular Warfare After Ukraine

Anton Ponomarenko — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 07:30:29 +0000

Pyongyang has a long history of conducting irregular warfare and asymmetric operations: Look no further than the 1968 Blue House raid or the 1996 submarine incursion as the most pressing examples. More often than not, North Korea failed to achieve the intended objectives of its missions and lost its commandos. Despite failures, the regime pressed on, and now, over thirty years after the sub incursion, it has the combat experience of its special operations forces in Kursk to leverage. For policymakers and analysts, the more urgent question is that of transferability and operationalization of the Kursk lessons to the Korean

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Power, Prudence, and Restraint in Fénelon’s Telemachus

Iskander Rehman — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 07:30:45 +0000

“If one is to judge by the fire and ardor with which this book is sought after, it is the most excellent of all books. Never were so many copies printed of any work; never were so many editions made of a single book; never has any writing been read by so many people.” -Pierre-Valentin Faydit in La Télémacomanie (1700), snidely critiquing the “mania” surrounding the initial publication of The Adventures of Telemachus.A sprawling epic that thrills the public, mesmerizes it with its aesthetic qualities and technical prowess, and reignites collective interest in some of the most foundational texts of

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The New Signature Wounds: How Drone Warfare Is Reshaping the Injuries Veterans Bring Home

Robert Chisholm — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 07:15:36 +0000

Traumatic brain injury became the signature wound of the post-9/11 wars because the battlefield changed. Improvised explosive devices changed the nature of American combat injuries. But the medical and legal systems that followed — including the Department of Veterans Affairs’ own adjudication frameworks — took years to catch up.Drone warfare is doing it again. And the gap between battlefield reality and the systems meant to support veterans may be widening faster than the last time.As a veterans disability appellate law firm, Chisholm Chisholm & Kilpatrick has represented tens of thousands of veterans in situations like this — instances where the

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South Korea’s Deliberate Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan

Sungmin Cho — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:30:17 +0000

In 2021, Sungmin Cho wrote, “South Korea’s Taiwan Conundrum,” where he argued Seoul’s complex strategic position makes engagement on questions of involvement over a Taiwan contingency complicated. Five years later, we asked him to revisit his arguments.Image: U.S. Navy (Photo by Seaman Apprentice Cale Hatch)In your 2021 article, you argued that Seoul should more actively engage in strategic dialogue with Washington on Taiwan issues. Five years later, what does that dialogue look like? How has South Korea adjusted its strategic thinking regarding involvement in a potential Taiwan contingency since 2021, based on its relationship with the United States?Outside the government, the

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Winning by the Rules: Optimizing Weapons Reviews in the Age of Technological Innovation

Nathan Wood — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 08:00:48 +0000

We spare the reader another detailed story from Ukraine to establish the now-familiar point that battlefield technology changes faster than militaries can acquire, review, and field it. The villain in this story is easy to identify: bureaucracy. The fashionable remedies are equally familiar — cut the red tape slowing procurement, or revise the policy review requirements for autonomous weapon systems. But bureaucratic reform, however necessary, cannot eliminate the fundamental challenges machine-learning-based systems pose for rapid testing, evaluation, validation, and verification. Moreover, legal and operational reasons make it unwise to cut corners on compliance with domestic and international law.Rather than relying

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Seoul Needs a Playbook for Hormuz, Ukraine, and What Comes Next

Jun-seok Lee — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 07:30:13 +0000

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump shared a Washington Post opinion piece on his social media, arguing that South Korea should send its Cheongung-II air-defense system to Ukraine. Additionally, the Trump administration continues to pressure Seoul to send troops to the Strait of Hormuz. Neither the U.S.-Iranian conflict nor the Russo-Ukrainian War is new, yet the simultaneity of U.S. pressure on Seoul to help in its war with Iran and to support Ukraine is striking.While such diverging asks are indeed unprecedented, this is partly due to a lack of principles that stipulate a clear South Korean position. South Korea should

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What the End of Operation Inherent Resolve Means for Iraq and Syria

Victoria Taylor — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 19:50:05 +0000

Operation Inherent Resolve is scheduled to end on Sept. 30, as remaining U.S. troops in northern Iraq complete their withdrawal. The United States formed Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve in October 2014 to bring together partners to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which had seized territory in parts of Iraq and Syria. The end of Operation Inherent Resolve highlights the success of coalition efforts against ISIL but also raises questions about future political stability and security in Iraq and Syria — and whether ISIL could rise again. The U.S. departure from northern

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Missed the Marque: Cyber Privateers Wanted, Compensation to Be Determined

Justin Hardy — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 07:30:08 +0000

Coverage of the new White House memorandum on combating cybercrime quickly reached the privateer label. CNN called the participants “cyber privateers,” invoking the image of government-sanctioned raiders working the high seas of cyberspace, hauling in digital booty. The reality is considerably less romantic. The administration has tried to create a private offensive cyber program using an exception buried in outdated legislation, and that has shaped how the program must be constructed. For this reason and others, the proposed framework will likely not attract the talent needed to address transnational cybercrime meaningfully.Within a single month, Congress and the White House each

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Zelensky’s Perception Problem: Are New Partnerships a Solution?

Nicole Wiley — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 17:55:46 +0000

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Washington’s Foreign Equity Bets Need Better Governance

Stephen Rodriguez — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:00:50 +0000

What do a rare earth mine in Brazil and a graphite mine in Mozambique have in common? Both have received significant United States government funding. The rub? Neither was subject, when the financing was committed, to the corporate governance standards that American listed companies are: an independent board, an independent audit committee, and audited disclosure to shareholders.There are strong national and economic security justifications for the recent push to use equity strategically to build secure American supply chains. Congress created the Development Finance Corporation in 2018 and the CHIPS program office in 2022, and has adopted a sharply faster pace

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Only America Could Have Designed the Field Jacket

Charles McFarlane — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 07:30:53 +0000

When the M-1943 field jacket was introduced at the height of World War II, it was a revolutionary garment. The jacket was the result of rigorous testing, input from an astonishingly diverse group of experts, and was produced by the most advanced textile and garment industry in the world at the time. But the essence of the M-1943 field jacket, and what made it so unique, was the very simple question it was trying to answer: “What does the soldier want?”The success of the field jacket highlights how a diversity of thought, a mastery of logistics, and a concern for

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Pressure Points

WOTR Staff — Fri, 18 Sep 2026 18:30:37 +0000

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranSenior officials from Iran, Oman, and neighboring Gulf states were scheduled to meet in Salalah on Monday to unveil the provisions of a deal for managing the Strait of Hormuz. Those plans unraveled before the meeting could take place, and Oman’s foreign minister announced a postponement.For Tehran, securing buy-in from U.S. allies in the Gulf was potentially a step toward resuming negotiations with Washington — presenting the Trump administration with a fix, even if temporary,

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Why Eurasia, Not the Indo-Pacific, Matters Most in Next Phase of Taiwan Deterrence

Ken Moriyasu — Fri, 18 Sep 2026 07:30:22 +0000

Washington is preparing for the right war, but in the wrong theater. For years, U.S. strategic thinking has centered on the Indo‑Pacific: the militarized atolls of the South China Sea, China’s churning naval shipyards, and the tense waters of the Taiwan Strait. Yet the next phase of competition will likely play out on the Eurasian landmass, contested through pipelines, swing states, and shifting alignments along routes that overlap with the ancient Silk Road. This is where China is building alternative trade and energy corridors beyond the immediate reach of U.S. military power.Chinese strategists have long worried that, in a conflict

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Latin America’s Balancing Act: Washington, Beijing, and the Post-Maduro Environment

Cecilia Farfán-Méndez — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 18:15:01 +0000

The year 2026 has brought sweeping change to Latin America’s relationship with the United States. Following a major military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes against vessels suspected of drug trafficking, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3 — unilaterally deposing the country’s leader and making new oil deals with the post-Maduro government. Washington has also intensified economic and political pressure against Cuba, imposed more tariffs across the region, and said it would not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, triggering renegotiations. Meanwhile, Washington has deepened security cooperation with several countries, including shifting some funds from other regions

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A Body Blow? The War on Iran and U.S. Military Readiness

Mark Cancian — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 17:14:36 +0000

The war against Iran is putting new strains on U.S. military readiness by consuming munitions and missile defense interceptors, as well as through extended deployments, sustained operational demands, and the diversion of forces and attention from other theaters. Mark Cancian (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Stacie Pettyjohn (Center for a New American Security), and Michael Eisenstadt (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) join Ryan to unpack what readiness actually means, how the war is affecting it, what vulnerabilities have been exposed, and what it all means for deterrence and the U.S. military’s ability to respond to a crisis with

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An Army General Talks Fusing Sensors and Shooters on the Eastern Flank

Brig. Gen. Steven P. Carpenter — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 08:00:53 +0000

This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Brig. Gen. Steven P. Carpenter, the commanding general of Multi-Domain Command – Europe, the U.S. Army’s first multi-domain operations command, headquartered at Clay Kaserne in Mainz-Kastel, Germany. Multi-Domain Command – Europe serves as the premier multi-domain fires headquarters for U.S. Army Europe and Africa. We spoke with Brig. Gen. Carpenter, following the conclusion of Arcane Thunder 26, the command’s fourth annual multi-domain exercise, which ran from April 6 to April 29 across Germany, Poland, Fort Irwin, and the Nevada Testing and Training Range. The exercise’s objective was to qualify multi-domain company teams

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The Real U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Is Better Than We Thought

Richard Nephew — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 07:30:37 +0000

On Aug. 24, 2026, the Trump administration transmitted the text of the U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement to Congress. By doing so, the administration triggered the 90-day congressional review process described in the Atomic Energy Act and relaunched a debate about the right approach to international nuclear commerce.The United States and Saudi Arabia jointly announced a deal in Nov. 2025 and signed the final text in July 2026. President Donald Trump held up its transmission to Congress over the issue of whether Saudi Arabia would normalize its relations with Israel, a topic that — according to the White House — could

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Would NATO Membership for Ukraine Undermine Article 5 Itself?

Jennifer Kavanagh — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 17:30:17 +0000

In 2025, Jennifer Kavanaugh and Christopher McCallion wrote, “Armed Neutrality for Ukraine Is NATO’s Least Poor Option,” where they made the case for armed neutrality over full NATO membership as the wiser course for both Ukraine and NATO. A year later, we asked them to revisit their arguments. Image: MidjourneyIn your 2025 article, you argued that NATO membership and binding U.S. or European security guarantees for Ukraine were effectively unworkable, and that armed neutrality was the option best suited to protecting both Ukraine’s security and NATO’s credibility. As the debate has evolved to include talk of “Article 5-like” assurances short of

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Strategic Stability and the Rebuilding of Xi’s Military

Christopher Nye — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 07:30:51 +0000

For all the warnings about an increasingly capable Chinese military, this may very well be an awkward moment for Beijing to have that military tested. General Secretary Xi Jinping has hollowed out much of the People’s Liberation Army’s senior command through purges and is now trying to rebuild it while preserving the appearance of uninterrupted strength. Several factors have allowed Xi to purge and rebuild on this scale, among them a temporary easing of external pressure. The United States unintentionally provided that comfort.One year ago, on the stage of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said

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The Atlantic Brief: U.S. and European Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence

WOTR Staff — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 18:45:59 +0000

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026Time: 12:00-1:00 PM ETThe second joint webinar by RUSI and War on the Rocks: Two leading defense publications from both sides of the Atlantic present their expert panel. OverviewFor this edition of The Atlantic Brief, the Royal United Services Institute and War on the Rocks will present a dialogue on U.S. and European Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence. Participating experts from the United Kingdom, continental Europe, and the United States bring decades of first-hand experience in the armed forces, diplomacy, and foreign policy. They will explore evolving views of America’s extended nuclear deterrence, the role of the British

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Three Patrons, Three Clients: The Mecca Alliance No One Owns

Ahmed Saber Abbas — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 07:30:13 +0000

Every alliance contains a struggle over who gets to decide what the alliance is for. The unusual thing about the Mecca Alliance, formally known as the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement,” is that all three of its members appear to believe they possess something that should give them that privilege: Saudi Arabia has the capital, Turkey has the defense industrial base, and Pakistan has the manpower and nuclear arsenal. Each can therefore imagine itself as the patron and the other two as clients. None of them, however, holds enough leverage to make that hierarchy stick.That unresolved competition for patronage may prove

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Reading the Kremlin’s Mind: Ukrainian Writers Attempt to Understand Putin

Nicole Wiley — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 18:40:51 +0000

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This Is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Flight Test Vehicle

Brandon Williams — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 08:00:39 +0000

For decades, the United States’ nuclear weapons enterprise has wrestled with an institutional paradox. On one hand is the imperative to make the complex more “responsive” to global tumult and technical surprise, able to field new weapons quickly in reaction to unanticipated threats. On the other are the unforgiving engineering requirements of thermonuclear warheads, devices whose development is measured in years. No silver bullet solution to this unstoppable-force-meets-immovable-object conundrum will likely present itself. But the contours of a new model in systems development are taking shape that may bring the long-sought responsiveness of the complex far closer to reality.Under the

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The Big Bet on the Emerging Space Economy

Dan Wald — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 07:45:57 +0000

The space economy has surpassed $600 billion in annual value, with some projecting it will reach a trillion by the 2030s. Jonathan Panter is joined by Joseph Yaffe (Cowboy Space), Brian Weeden (The Aerospace Corporation), and Dan Wald (Booz Allen) to weigh where the real growth is. They discuss how AI infrastructure is blurring the line between the space economy and the regular economy, the regulatory tangle, the leap toward autonomous constellations of hundreds of thousands of satellites, competition with China, and the dual-use risks of data centers in orbit.Image: Giuseppe Donatiello via Wikimedia Commons.

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The Age of Strategic Exclusion

Patrick Gill-Tiney — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 07:30:13 +0000

Major powers are increasingly trying to shut out their rivals. Russia invaded Ukraine in part to prevent the latter’s further integration with the West. The United States is restricting China’s access to advanced semiconductors and encouraging allies to do the same. China’s Belt and Road Initiative secures privileged positions in strategic infrastructure and economic relationships. Though these examples vary in aims and methods, they reflect a growing willingness of major powers to restrict rivals’ access and influence.I use the term ‘strategic exclusion’ to describe policies that move competition from shared access to restricted access. Territorial control is its most extreme

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The War’s Last Generation Is Still Holding America’s Moral Debt

Omer S. Rafiq — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 07:30:36 +0000

On the first night of the evacuation of Kabul, Aug. 15, 2021, a young mother found me in the crowd at Hamid Karzai International Airport. She had marked me, correctly, as someone who spoke her language. By the end of the night, she was pressing the body of her dead child into my chest and telling me, “You did this.” I have spent five years with that sentence.In a way, she was wrong about me. I had done nothing to her son. But the decisions that delivered her to that night were made an ocean away, and their consequences needed

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What America’s Adversaries and Allies Hope to Gain at the U.N. General Assembly

Holly Dagres — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 17:30:54 +0000

This year’s U.N. General Assembly officially opened on Tuesday, Sept. 8. The annual gathering gives diplomats and leaders a valuable opportunity to press their foreign policy priorities and engage — formally and informally — with both partners and adversaries. Most heads of state will arrive later this month for the General Debate that begins on Sept. 22. The General Assembly will wrap up on Sept. 28.U.S. President Donald Trump and his senior officials have strongly criticized the United Nations, withdrawn from multiple U.N. organizations, and reduced funding. More broadly, the Trump administration’s moves to withdraw some U.S. troops, shift more

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Automating the Action Officer: Between Bureaucracy and Technology

Samuel Canter — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:00:52 +0000

If there is a revolution brewing in the automation of white-collar work, you wouldn’t know it at the Pentagon. Here, the typical action officers, staff who tackle the daily work of the bureaucracy, perform essentially the same duties as their predecessors in 1996 or 1956: creating charts, authoring papers, delivering briefings, and coordinating across offices. Given the promise of AI tools, allowing this staff ecosystem to remain stuck in the past represents a dangerous failure to adapt, especially as senior leaders criticize the workforce for lacking organizational speed. Having served as an action officer across the White House, Pentagon, and

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The Assessment Gap in U.S. Counter-Terrorism Strikes

Jim Loucks — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:30:59 +0000

For eight years I helped decide whether American counter-terrorism money was working.As a programs advisor in the State Department’s Bureau of Counterterrorism from 2018 to 2025, I oversaw about 20 projects in East Africa worth roughly $80 million a year. None of that money moved without a performance monitoring plan. We established baselines before work started and agreed on indicators in advance. When a project underperformed, or the reporting came late, we withheld funding. Reporting tracked activities against those metrics across the life of the program. Independent evaluations validated what implementers said they had done.That machinery was not the bureau’s

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Forced Into the Right Decision? A Look at U.S. Land-Based Deterrence Posture

Steve Fetter — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 17:30:23 +0000

In 2019, Steve Fetter wrote “A Cheaper Nuclear Sponge,” in which he argued that building a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was unnecessary for strengthening U.S. land-based deterrence. After several years of changing defense budgets and strategic priorities, we asked Steve to revisit his arguments.Image: U.S. Air Force (John Ingle)In your 2019 article, you argued that building an entirely new ICBM was unnecessary and that the Pentagon could save tens of billions by extending the life of the Minuteman III instead. Nearly seven years on, how has that argument held up? What has the new ballistic missile program’s trajectory looked

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The Tyranny of Shipyard Cost-Plus Contracting

Kavon Hakimzadeh — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:00:38 +0000

As a naval shipyard commander, my mandate from Navy leadership is straightforward: return warships to the fleet as quickly as possible. Neither my shipyard nor many other public and private shipyards are consistently fulfilling that mission.Public shipyard availabilities — the scheduled periods during which nuclear-powered warships are taken out of operational service for maintenance, repair, or modernization — are often delayed well beyond their original timelines. A recent Government Accountability Office report highlighted that over the past 10 years, maintenance delays for attack submarines have resulted in 15,000 lost operational days and an estimated $3.4 billion in costs. This problem of maintenance

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The Strange Transformation of the Front Line in Ukraine

Édouard Maurin — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:30:29 +0000

On Jan. 5, 2025, my volunteer platoon attached to the 23rd Special Purpose Battalion of the Presidential Brigade entered a 1-kilometer-long tree line called CHAI, on the outskirts of Kotlyne, a few kilometers west of Pokrovsk, Ukraine. Our task was to occupy a position whose status on DeepState, an open-source map tracking military operations in the Russo-Ukrainian war, had been shifting out of gray for five days. On DeepState’s map, different colors illustrate the fighting situation: the red area is held by the aggressor, while green or blue areas show territory successfully defended or recaptured by the Ukrainian army. The

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The Mecca Pact’s Credibility Gap

Doga Eralp — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:15:03 +0000

Collective-defense pacts are meant to make war less likely. Poorly designed ones can do the opposite. If allies make sweeping promises without the military integration, decision-making mechanisms, and escalation controls needed to carry them out, they may invite adversaries to test the boundaries of these promises.The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, signed on Aug. 7 amid intensifying regional conflict, represents a significant but uncertain development in the region. The agreement declares that an attack on one member will be treated as an attack on all three, establishing a broad commitment to collective deterrence. Yet the

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The Two Questions Ukraine Asks Before Every Decision

Nicole Wiley — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 19:50:05 +0000

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China’s Warrior Scientists: Insights from Recent Operations Around Taiwan

Peter Alan Dutton — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:30:45 +0000

China’s marine scientific research ships are expanding their operations around Taiwan, and they are not just there to advance the frontiers of human knowledge. Their operations serve to undermine Taiwan’s independent political status and to force international acceptance of Beijing’s claim of sovereignty over the island and its surrounding waters. This pressure campaign by the People’s Republic of China began intensifying in 2022. While media coverage of this development has focused on the activities of the People’s Liberation Army and the China Coast Guard, China’s civilian survey ships operate among them often unnoticed and in unprecedented numbers. Because of the

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Nicaragua’s Army Will Decide What Comes After Ortega

Orlando J. Pérez — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:00:26 +0000

The first institution Nicaragua’s National Assembly called to testify on the constitutional reform ending competitive elections was the army. On July 29, 2026, Gen. Julio César Avilés appeared before the Special Constitutional Commission and pledged the firm support of the Army of Nicaragua for a package that dissolves the electoral basis of the civilian authority he serves. Avilés spoke on behalf of the General Command, the Military Council, and the ground, naval, air, and reserve forces under his command. Five years earlier, at the ceremony launching the distribution of ballots for the 2021 election, the same officer committed 15,000 troops

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The Strategic Fiber of America: Kevlar’s Impact on Warfighters

Julie George — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:00:53 +0000

Editor’s note: This is the tenth and final article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader national security, politics, and society. This series will run for several weeks to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary, and winners will be selected by a reader vote undertaken through our newsletter later this summer. Prior installments can be found at the Arsenal of Innovation page.I was fortunate enough to do something that would be a benefit to mankind. It’s been an extremely satisfying discovery. I don’t think there’s anything like saving someone’s life to bring you satisfaction and happiness.–

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Shrinking Buffers: Why Turkey and Israel Are on a Collision Course

Ali Murat Kursun — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:30:31 +0000

When Israeli warplanes struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria on Aug. 18, 2026, the smoke rose over the demolition of an old geopolitical assumption about the Middle East. This time, Israel directly targeted a strategic sphere of influence where the Turkish military had been working to build local security capacity.Turkey rapidly filled the power vacuum in post-Assad Syria, expanding its military and intelligence footprint southward and positioning itself as a founding actor in the Levant’s new security architecture. With this military move, Israel aimed to draw a new line of engagement on the ground for both Ankara and Damascus.

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New Complications in Countering the Flow of Arms in the Caribbean

Ian Ralby — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 07:00:22 +0000

Arms trafficking in the Caribbean has soared in recent years, with many states now ranking firearms trafficking as the number one public safety and security threat. As new methods of arming individuals and gangs emerge across the Caribbean, gun violence continues to rise throughout the region. While armed gangs in Haiti currently possess superior firepower to the police, most countries are trying to get a handle on the problem before it becomes that bad. Some outdated narratives, particularly about South American arms, still color thinking about firearms in the region, but the reality is becoming increasingly complex in the directional

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The Fruit of Patience: How Regional Shifts Ripened Turkey’s Path to Kurdish Reconciliation

Riccardo Gasco — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:30:39 +0000

On Aug. 25, at the People’s Palace in Damascus, Mazloum Abdi announced the dissolution of the Syrian Democratic Forces, which he had commanded for a decade. Speaking first in Arabic and then in Kurdish, he said the force had joined the Syrian army and would no longer operate independently. 15 days earlier, Turkey’s parliament had passed a framework law for the disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The group has long been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Turkey, which have waged a brutal campaign against it for decades. Two

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The Future of Combat Medicine

John Quinn — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 17:30:11 +0000

War has always been a brutal engine of medical innovation, running on a feedback loop: Civilian breakthroughs are adapted for the battlefield, while battlefield necessity pushes advances back into civilian care. We asked three experts to identify the innovations from the last five years most likely to shape the future of combat medicine.Read more below.John Quinn Adjunct Lecturer, College of Remote and Offshore Medicine Foundation Medical Volunteer in UkraineThe war in Ukraine has made it clear that the most important combat-medical innovations are not gadgets, but new distributions of risk, skill, and authority. First, blood-forward resuscitation will require moving whole

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Where Does AI Escalation Come From? We Don’t Know. We Should Find Out.

Dustin League — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:30:30 +0000

We played a wargame using AI players. Two nuclear-armed nations — Red and Blue — with a long-standing, fierce border dispute were placed into a militarized crisis. Over the course of several turns, the states managed to avoid escalation to war, though there were non-operational nuclear demonstrations. Surprised by the lack of escalation we’d been primed to find by Juan-Pablo Rivera, Gabriel Mukobi, Anka Reuel, Max Lamparth, Chandler Smith, and Jacquelyn Schneider, as well as Kenneth Payne, we tried upping the stakes. We gave Red some new tactical nuclear weapons, altering the balance a bit in their favor. The states

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Russia’s Road to El Dorado

Raphael Parens — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:00:03 +0000

As a new convoy of Russian armored vehicles arrives from the port of Lomé to support Russia’s Africa Corps deployment in Mali, that mission has entered its fifth year. Russia’s investment of blood and treasure urgently demands a return, but what could this return be? What is the Russian end goal in Mali?When the Wagner Group, Africa Corps’ predecessor, entered Mali in December 2021, it was pursuing a resources-for-security deal like the one it had achieved in the Central African Republic. Along with my co-authors Chris Faulkner and Colin Clarke in our book, Moscow’s Mercenaries, I documented Wagner’s lessons learned,

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Is Taiwanese Society Prepared for a China Contingency?

Michael A. Hunzeker — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 17:30:43 +0000

In 2025, Michael Hunzeker and Yuster Yu wrote, “Taiwan’s Biggest Problem in Steeling Itself for War With China is Cultural,” where they argued major cultural changes were needed in both Taiwan’s military and civilian society if it were to be competitive in a conflict with China. A year later, we asked them to revisit their arguments.Image: Taiwan Presidential Office via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2025 article, you argued that major cultural changes must take place in both the officer corps of Taiwan’s armed forces and broader society if Taiwan is to be competitive in a contingency with China. A year later,

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European Resilience in Digital Infrastructure: The Changing Nature of State-Business Relations

Michiel Foulon — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:00:52 +0000

As the war in Ukraine progressed, Russian strikes increasingly degraded Ukraine’s terrestrial communications infrastructure, steadily deepening Kyiv’s dependence on SpaceX’s Starlink. The satellite constellation became indispensable for crucial military functions, including command and control, drone operations, and artillery fire coordination, with no readily available European alternative should access be withdrawn.This reality exemplifies the idea that today, governments rely on critical infrastructure that is privately owned and globally embedded. But these interdependencies can be weaponized, and state-firm relations can become misaligned. Recent controversies over the ability of American and Chinese technology companies to restrict access to critical AI models, alongside NVIDIA’s

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Ukraine’s Ground Robots and the Economics of Survival

Lesia Bidochko — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:30:47 +0000

In August 2024, special forces from five Ukrainian military intelligence units crossed the Black Sea to raid Russian-held Kinburn Spit. The commandos of these units — Chimera, Aratta, Stuhna, Paragon, Terror, and the Siberian Battalion — landed, fought, destroyed equipment, and withdrew. Two years later, in July 2026, Ukraine returned, but left the soldiers behind. Instead, an uncrewed surface vessel carried a ground robot across the water and released it onto the shore. The robot, equipped with a Wolly 7.62 remotely operated combat module, featuring a machine gun and an AI-assisted targeting system, rolled onto shore and engaged targets. A

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Why Are People Talking About a German Reset with Russia?

Ian Klinke — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:15:33 +0000

The summer of 2026 has raised questions once again among politicians, diplomats, and academics about whether Germany might be about to dither on Russia. Last month, a drone attack on German soil seemed designed to coerce Germany back into business as usual. Earlier, there had been rumblings about two German ex-chancellors brokering a peace treaty between Kyiv and Moscow. Both Angela Merkel and Gerhard Schröder are living embodiments of the ill-reputed Ostpolitik, Germany’s tradition of pragmatic cooperation with the Kremlin over the heads of other Eastern European countries.Is Germany getting ready for a reset with Russia, though? Not really. Berlin’s

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A Rulebook for Surprises: Commanding Autonomous Aircraft

Greg Search — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:00:28 +0000

My greatest challenge while flight testing collaborative combat aircraft was not troubleshooting errors at high speed in the cockpit. It was when, in a single keystroke, my job shifted from pilot to something like a dog handler — a supervisor of an autonomous agent. As a test pilot, my instinct is to stop for surprise machine behavior, but that met a system where such unexpected behavior could be a good thing. Managing autonomy means accounting for a new phenomenon — machine behavior that is both correct and unexpected.Historically, aircrews have handled surprises by assuming there’s a malfunction and fixing it,

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The Educated Operator: Rethinking Lethality in Special Operations

Calvin Richards — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:30:23 +0000

Editor’s Note: While War on the Rocks has a high standard for allowing pseudonyms, this is an unusual case: U.S. Army Special Operations Command requires its uniformed personnel to use pseudonyms when writing for public consumption (Policy 23-16). Meek young men grow up in libraries, believing it their duty to accept the views which Cicero, which Locke, which Bacon, have given; forgetful that Cicero, Locke, and Bacon were only young men in libraries when they wrote these books. –Ralph Waldo Emerson Over the course of more than a dozen combat deployments, it is undeniably true that being dumb has sometimes

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The Political Constraint on America’s Data-Center Power Buildout

Javaid Iqbal Sofi — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:00:15 +0000

In April, President Donald Trump issued two Defense Production Act determinations covering grid infrastructure and large-scale energy infrastructure. One found that the country’s constrained electric grid posed an increasing threat to national defense and made grid infrastructure and its supply chains essential to national defense. The other found that financing risks, regulatory delays, and market barriers were preventing large-scale energy infrastructure essential to national defense from being provided in a timely manner. Less than three months later, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul imposed a one-year moratorium on new hyperscale data centers. Her order said the pause would keep New Yorkers

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The Divine Calculus of the Ukraine War’s End

Nicole Wiley — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 16:35:54 +0000

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The Quantum Stack and the Countdown to Q-Day

Cameron Chehreh — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:00:43 +0000

Quantum’s hype obscures a reality with real geopolitical stakes: the technology works and is advancing every day. Cameron Chehreh (IonQ), JD Dulny (Booz Allen), and Ben Gianni (GDIT) join Jonathan to discuss the race to Q-Day. They cover the shift to post-quantum cryptography, competing hardware modalities, emerging use cases, and why talent gaps and fragile supply chains mean the United States could be at risk of falling behind.Image: Jonathan Steffen via DVIDS.

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Stop Using AI. Start Commanding It

Cody Nichols — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:30:52 +0000

Walk into the Pentagon, climb the escalator, and an Uncle Sam-style poster points at you: “I want YOU to use AI.” It worked. GenAI.mil hit 1.5 million users in six months, and I have heard enough OpenAI-in-disguise pitches to last a lifetime. The adoption really is great, but the poster contains a problem. “Use” is the verb of tools, and the Department of Defense does not win by using tools. It wins by commanding forces.North of the Pentagon, a task force few know about operates in a Maryland basement. They collect intelligence, develop missions, and execute against targets 24/7 within

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The (Un)importance of the Battle of Tours

Daniel Wollenberg — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:30:05 +0000

Editor’s note: This is the first article in a new occasional series featuring battles that just didn’t matter, may look important, but in fact had negligible strategic or political effects or were absurd, anticlimactic, or structurally irrelevant to the wars they were part of.Some battles never end. Their impact is debated endlessly, sometimes for centuries, as they take on new life with new generations of historians and swindlers alike. Few battles better exemplify this eternal lifespan than the Battle of Tours — also known as the Battle of Poitiers — as it was fought between the two cities in modern-day

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Beneath the Surface: Overlooked Cyber Security Threats

Emily Harding — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 17:30:16 +0000

Cyber security remains a persistent concern for public and private sector organizations alike. Given the potential impact of cyber threats from criminal groups, adversarial states, and extremists, the topic draws substantial attention. Yet, in a field that evolves so quickly, some risks slip through the cracks. We asked four experts to identify and assess a key cyber security threat to U.S. national security that analysts and policymakers often overlook.Read more below. Emily HardingDirector of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program and Vice President of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Determining the state

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The Goldilocks Fallacy: The Undefined Limits of Korea’s Nuclear Role

Hanbyeol Sohn — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 07:30:16 +0000

“Unthreatening and respectful.” That is how the president of the United States described North Korea on Aug. 16, 2026, in his social media post ordering his secretary of defense to scale back joint exercises with South Korea. Two years earlier in Seoul, the U.S.-South Korean alliance agreed that South Korea’s role in an American nuclear operation would involve exercises and training, formalizing those guidelines at a Nuclear Consultative Group meeting co-chaired by Vipin Narang, then-acting assistant secretary of defense for space policy.Three weeks before the president’s post, on July 24, Narang spoke at the second Deterrence Symposium hosted by South

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“Zero Problems” Abroad, Plenty at Home: Reassessing al Sharaa’s Leadership in Syria

Rob Geist Pinfold — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 17:30:39 +0000

In 2025, Rob Geist Pinfold wrote, “The March Massacres Show That Syria Urgently Needs Solutions, Not Sanctions,” in which he argued that sanctions relief was a major way the West could positively engage with the new Syrian government. A year later, after sanctions relief materialized and the United States removed Syria from its list of terrorism sponsors, we asked him to revisit his arguments and reassess President Ahmed al Sharaa’s leadership, both foreign and domestic. Image: Voice of America via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2025 article, you argued that one way the West should engage with post-Assad Syria was through sanctions relief.

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The Marine Corps’ Plan for the Future of Ground Combat

Jason Morris — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 16:55:18 +0000

The Marine Corps just released its plan to fight against adversaries on land, and Ryan had the two architects of the plan, Ground Combat Element 2040, on the show to talk about it. They discuss drones, resilience, long-range fires, logistics, and what marines will need to survive and fight on an increasingly transparent battlefield while still preserving the critical human element.Image: Khalil Brown via DVIDS

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Would Wartime Elections Save Democracy or End It?

Nicole Wiley — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:00:53 +0000

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From Hormuz to the Caucasus: The New Geography of Energy Security

Aidin Panahi — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:30:16 +0000

Every crisis in the Middle East returns the world’s attention to the same stretch of water. When tankers are seized, or missiles fly near the Persian Gulf, oil prices move, insurers reprice risk, shipping reroutes, and the United States repositions naval and airpower to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The reflex is sound, because the strait carries volumes nothing else can. Alongside the maritime map, a second geography of energy security is taking shape: the pipelines, railways, power lines, and transit corridors linking the Caspian Basin and the South Caucasus to Europe.Western governments are pairing forward military presence in

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Russia’s Next Top General: Promotions in Russian Military Leadership

Dmitry Gorenburg — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:30:17 +0000

Judged by the initial strategic goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022, Russia’s military lost its war against Ukraine some time ago. Yet Russia’s armed forces have not stopped fighting and continue to prosecute large-scale combat operations in a brutalizing, protracted war sucking up much of Russia’s assets of national power, from pure military capacity to foreign policy priorities to considerable societal and economic resources. While Putin calls the most important strategic shots, it is Russia’s senior military elite that makes the strategic and operational decisions impacting warfighting outcomes every day. Who are these senior officers, where did

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Command and Politics in the War Between Moscow and Kyiv

Dara Massicot — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:00:05 +0000

Our intrepid team covers a lot of ground in this episode: the increasing fluidity of the battlefield, drones and air defense, the biting Black Sea campaign, the causes and aftermath of the firing of Ukraine’s popular defense minister, why Ukraine probably cannot produce PAC-3 air defense missiles (despite what some journalists are telling you), and the likelihood of a new round of Russian mobilization. This episode is Dara Massicot and Michael Kofman at their best.Thanks to NODA AI for supporting this episode. NODA AI is building mission command for autonomous forces. Learn more at warontherocks.com/nodaImage: ArmyInform

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Betting on Autonomous Aircraft

Brandon Tseng — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000

This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Brandon Tseng, the co-founder and president of Shield AI and a former Navy SEAL, whose company builds the Hivemind autonomy software, the V-BAT and X-BAT aircraft, and Aechelon synthetic reality and simulation technologies. We asked Brandon about the bet at the center of his company — that the AI pilot matters more than the airframe — and about what a decade building autonomy for the Pentagon has taught him. Sign Up for Our Newsletter You founded Shield AI in 2015, before defense tech was fashionable, and when few in Washington believed a startup could

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The Risks of Downplaying China’s Military

Thomas Shugart — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:30:35 +0000

China has spent years modifying civilian ferries to launch amphibious armored vehicles, developing specialized equipment to move forces ashore without conventional port facilities, hardening dozens of air bases, and rapidly expanding the missile forces that could be used to deter or defeat a U.S. intervention. Yet at the same time, a recurring line of analysis has argued that concerns about China’s military capabilities are overstated — and that an invasion of Taiwan remains beyond the reach of the People’s Liberation Army.These analyses differ in important ways. Some emphasize the Chinese military’s political character, lack of combat experience, and institutional shortcomings. Others

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Pressure Points: Economic Strain, Allied Discord, and War Fatigue

WOTR Staff — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 20:50:55 +0000

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranU.S. strikes on Iranian soil tapered off in August after frequent exchanges throughout July. The hiatus seems more of an adjustment in tactics to wear down Iran’s finances rather than further degrade its military capability: A combined “one-two punch” of a physical blockade against Iran’s maritime trade and increased sanctions measures, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said, “have never been seen in the history of the economic isolation of a country.” Iran will

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A Rock and China’s Three-Sea Problem

Shuxian Luo — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:30:50 +0000

Two rocks surrounded by coral, with a total land size of less than 10 square meters (approximately 108 square feet) at high tide, are the entire basis on which Japan claims a 150,000-square-mile exclusive economic zone, an area nearly the size of Japan itself. The uninhabited feature, located more than 1,000 miles south of Tokyo, is called Okinotori.In late July, Japan protested Sino-Russian live-fire drills held within the exclusive economic zone it claims around Okinotori. Tokyo cited the safety risks the drills posed to nearby vessels, but its broader objection was to Beijing’s claim that Okinotori is merely a rock

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Mental Health Is a Warfighting Readiness Problem for the U.S. Navy

Heath “Hank” Brightman — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:00:14 +0000

“You cannot be at mental peace always. You will be worried. So even my family — they are scared all the time, and they were anxiously praying [for] the vessel [to] come out of this area safely.” While Captain Chirag operates a commercial cargo vessel in the Red Sea, his comments in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attacks in the Middle East could just as easily be attributed to the hard-charging crew of the guided-missile destroyer USS Carney and other surface combatants fighting Houthi threats, or the experiences of the sailors assigned to Carrier Strike Group Three engaging

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War: Watt Is It Good For?

Harry Krejsa — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:00:25 +0000

Military analysts are captivated by how the material nature of war is transforming in Ukraine. Unmanned systems have captured Russian infantry units, battered Russian naval and commercial ships, and even, with the help of on-board AI, conducted autonomous strikes deep into areas where Russian jamming foils remote piloting. These technologies are powering a dramatic democratization of military capability, allowing a country to hold off an invader many times its size.But that democratization is only part of the story, and is in fact driven by an equally dramatic consolidation. Strip down any of these battlefield-transforming tools, and you will find remarkably

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China’s Military Says AI Can’t Replace Commanders. Xi Is Testing That

Jaehwan Lim — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:30:47 +0000

For years, the Chinese military’s own newspaper has been making a promise it may no longer be able to keep. Whenever the People’s Liberation Army Daily (Jiefangjun Bao), the official newspaper of China’s Central Military Commission, discusses artificial intelligence and command, it returns to the same reassurance: Machines may sort sensor data, draft options, and compress the time between observation and action, but the final authority, and the responsibility that comes with it, belong to the human commander. As one 2025 article puts it, AI cannot resolve the allocation of command authority and responsibility because only a human commander can

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Inside Iran’s Wartime Regime

Afshon Ostovar — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 19:30:45 +0000

Afshon Ostovar, one of the leading experts on Iran and the host of the members-only podcast The Iran Reckoning, is joined by War on the Rocks membership editor Kerry Anderson for a state-of-play conversation on the conflict between the United States and Iran. They consider why the fighting has settled into a stalemate and dig into which figures in the Iranian regime have influence over Iran’s approach to the war. Afshon unpacks the implications of Mohsen Rezaei’s recent appointment as head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, before the two look ahead to what comes next. Normally members-only content, this

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Contested Logistics and the “Last Unmanned Mile”

Tom Garvey — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 08:00:58 +0000

In a Pacific war, the U.S. military cannot assume uncontested access to its depots and supply lines for munitions, spare parts, food, water, and energy. Jonathan is joined by David Tuttle (Rune Technologies), Paul Lwin (HavocAI), and Tom Garvey (CACI) to discuss sustaining a dispersed force that’s facing enemy fire and lacks stable, secure communications. They debate autonomy versus automation, predictive resupply, where the data comes from, and which lessons from Ukraine transfer across theaters.Image: Sgt. Alora Finigan via DVIDS.

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Managed Instability: Why the Wars Against Iran and Ukraine Can Go On and On and On…

Alex Kolbin — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 07:30:50 +0000

The Iran war is beginning to resemble the Ukraine war in one important way. Operationally, the wars themselves are still very different — Ukraine is a large-scale ground invasion, while the Iran war is not there just yet. But their political logic after a failure to achieve a quick result is starting to look very similar. In both cases, a larger power expected its overwhelming military force to produce a quick political result. And in both cases, that expectation failed.The targeted state adapted, outside supporters helped it remain afloat, and both conflicts moved from the promise of a decisive outcome

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Proving the Negative: Three Warnings from Arms Control for the Age of AI

Mark Daley — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 07:00:54 +0000

In early 1963, a single number characterized the difference in the positions of the United States and the Soviet Union on a comprehensive nuclear test ban. Nikita Khrushchev had proposed three on-site inspections each year. Washington was asking for seven. Other differences remained, including inspection procedures and treaty language. But the difference mattered: Seismology could not always distinguish an underground test from an earthquake, and inspections created both assurance and opportunities for espionage.Neither number had been delivered by a technical expert wielding a seismograph. Each represented a political judgment about how much residual uncertainty its government should accept. The negotiations

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How Feasible Is a European Nuclear Deterrent Without Washington?

James Cameron — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 19:45:41 +0000

In 2025, James Cameron wrote, “Eurodeterrent: A Vision for an Anglo-French Nuclear Force,” where he argued the United Kingdom and France should cooperate to develop a nuclear deterrent umbrella for Europe, independent of Washington. A year later, after French President Emmanuel Macron’s landmark nuclear speech, we asked him to revisit his argument. Image: SAC Rob Bourne/MODIn your 2025 article, you argued that, given Europe’s perceived uncertainty about the U.S. commitment to its security and defense, the United Kingdom and France should cooperate to develop a nuclear deterrent umbrella independent of Washington. In July 2025, the United Kingdom and France signed the Northwood Declaration, and

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AI and the Risks of Tearing Down an Old System

Jordan Kane — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:30:31 +0000

Operation Epic Fury made clear that AI is now at the heart of American warfighting. Central Command used Claude through Palantir’s Maven Smart System platform to generate and prioritize roughly 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours of the campaign, at an operational tempo that more than doubled the opening phase of the 2003 Iraq invasion. Over 38 days, the campaign reached 13,000 total strikes, according to Pentagon data. Project Maven says that the program has accelerated targeting even further to 5,000 in a single day. The question is whether the department can evaluate what it deploys before it deploys

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Inside Brazil’s 3D-Printed Gun Supply Chain

Carlos Eduardo da Silva — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:00:57 +0000

On June 26, 2026, the Civil Police of Rio de Janeiro, through its specialized firearms, ammunition, and explosives unit, raided a clandestine workshop in Rio das Pedras, on the city’s west side. Investigators said the group used a 3D printer seized at the scene to produce pistol frames and structural rifle parts in polymer and then completed them with metal parts. Early reports described those parts as imported, but police said on the day of the raid that they were still determining the metal’s origin. Police described the operation’s main target as an international arms and ammunition trafficker who supplied

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The Tension Between Collectivism and Individualism in Ukraine

Nicole Wiley — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 19:00:41 +0000

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A Life in Army Special Operations, from Desert Storm to the Next War

Francis Beaudette — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:40:08 +0000

Lt. Gen. (ret.) Francis Beaudette, former commanding general of the U.S. Army Special Operations Command, joins Ryan to discuss how his family history, service, and books shaped his path into and time in the Army. Together, they talk through his years as a young officer during Operation Desert Storm, the wars that followed, the present and future challenges of special operations (and how they aren’t that different from the past), and the difficulty of learning the right lessons from the wars of today. Thanks to Legion Intelligence for sponsoring the event at which this episode was recorded.Image: ChatGPT

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Blanchard’s Lathe and the Long Arc of American Manufacturing

Aubry Eaton — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:00:05 +0000

Editor’s note: This is the ninth article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader national security, politics, and society. This series will run for several weeks to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary, and winners will be selected by a reader vote undertaken through our newsletter later this summer. Prior installments can be found at the Arsenal of Innovation page.Emerging from the chaos of supplying the U.S. Army during the War of 1812, the War Department sought to foster domestic production of standardized muskets. Out of this industrial project arose an invention that laid the foundation

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What Have We Learned from the 9/11 Wars? Not Nearly Enough

Jonathan Schroden — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:30:08 +0000

Editor’s Note: The following article draws on themes from the author’s forthcoming book titled US Counterterrorism Operations in Afghanistan: Jackpots, Dry Holes, and Collateral Damage.Over the next month, the United States will pass two major historical milestones: the five-year anniversary of its withdrawal from Afghanistan and the 25-year anniversary of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. While the latter is likely to receive at least a modicum of respectful remembrance from U.S. leaders and the American public, the former is likely to be ignored by the U.S. government and to escape broader notice.These are painful milestones. Ones that are

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Cheap Drones, Dry Taps: The Iran War Opens a New Era of Water Infrastructure Risk

Gabriel Collins — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:30:30 +0000

Water and energy infrastructure have become one of Iran’s main levers of deterrence against the United States. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi recently made it clear to Gulf states that if the U.S. military renewed large-scale strikes on Iran, their critical infrastructure would be struck. Iranian forces’ operational history over the past six months confirmed the threat’s credibility.Kuwait first reported damage near a desalination plant early in Operation Epic Fury, when debris from an intercepted drone struck the Doha West facility. Then, on March 7 and 8, Iran claimed a desalination facility on Qeshm Island had been attacked, and in response,

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The Commercial Space Race

Rebekah Reed — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 18:14:06 +0000

A strong commercial space industry is an important partner for the U.S. government, as it contributes to building more robust space and defense capabilities and facilitates innovation more broadly. As competition between the United States and China heats up, both countries look to the commercial space sector to help them get ahead in both the space race and defense technologies. We asked five experts: What is a crucial step for the United States to take now to stay ahead in commercial space competition with China?Read more below.Rebekah ReedAssociate Director in the Belfer Center’s Program on Emerging Technology, Scientific Advancement, and

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The True Cost of Cheap Chips

Faisal Akhter — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:00:29 +0000

Given the relentless demand for computing power, electronic components are in scarce supply. Prices for certain memory chips, known as DRAM, have surged by more than 50 percent in a single quarter this year, and have roughly quadrupled since last fall. Because DRAM supply is tight, Apple, Dell, and HP are currently evaluating memory from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a company the Pentagon has designated as a Chinese military company. Apple, in particular, has sought assurances from the U.S. government that CXMT will not face future sanctions that would cut off its supply. Apple justifies its request by pledging to

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2026 and All That: Another Benchmark Year in Royal Navy Decline

Steven Wills — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 07:30:49 +0000

The 1930 comic history, 1066 and All That, made famous the British habit of reducing national history to a sequence of memorable dates. The modern Royal Navy has its own unhappy version of that calendar. Since 1945, a series of ostensibly practical political decisions has steadily reduced Britain’s ability to sustain a globally relevant fleet: the 1956 failed Suez expedition, the 1966 retreat from “East of Suez,” the 1981 Nott Review, the 1998 Strategic Defence Review, and the 2010 review that further reduced the fleet even as Britain moved toward operating the long-desired Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers. The year 2026

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Russia’s Blurry Line Between Science and Sabotage Beneath the Ocean’s Surface

Nurlan Aliyev — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 17:30:08 +0000

In 2025, Nurlan Aliyev wrote, “The Mayhem of Russia’s “Research” Fleet,” where he argued that NATO must act decisively to safeguard critical undersea infrastructure from Russian sabotage attempts. A year later, we asked him to revisit his arguments. Image: Andrey Luzik via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2025 article, you argued that NATO needed to act decisively to safeguard critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic, Barents, and Arctic regions from Russian sabotage. Since then, where has NATO strengthened its deterrence and defense in this area, and where do gaps still remain? Since 2025, NATO and E.U. members have strengthened coordination to protect critical undersea infrastructure through

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Hyman Rickover and the Birth of Nuclear Power

Thane C. Clare — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:00:51 +0000

Editor’s note: This is the eighth article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader national security, politics, and society. This series will run for several weeks to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary, and winners will be selected by a reader vote undertaken through our newsletter later this summer. Prior installments can be found at the Arsenal of Innovation page.For more than 70 years, nuclear power has propelled America’s silent service — attack submarines stalking their prey from below, and the “boomers” that lurk undetected, ballistic missiles on alert, forming the most survivable leg of the

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The Next School of War: Educating for Tomorrow’s Battlefield

Brig. Gen. Matthew Tracy — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:30:12 +0000

When war changes, schools change. New technology, the politics of mass mobilization and campaign design, and novel tactics that defined Napoleonic warfare led to Gerhard von Scharnhorst’s reforms and the idea of lifelong education as a professional obligation. The pattern repeated itself in the interwar period. In 1929, James Carson Breckinridge, a Marine officer, published “Some Thoughts on Service Schools” in the Marine Corps Gazette, calling for a new educational paradigm consistent with John Dewey’s ideas about pragmatism and experiential learning.War is again changing. The promise of the third offset has arrived, extending the battlefield and resulting in wars waged by

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Who Pays for America’s Research and Development?

Cogs of War Staff — Tue, 11 Aug 2026 08:00:32 +0000

When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, the U.S. government was the unrivaled patron of American science. It funded nearly two-thirds of the nation’s research and development — much of it for defense — defining the early Cold War. In a phenomenon that’s been widely explored in our Arsenal of Innovation series, for several decades federal dollars pushed the technological frontier, and the private sector followed.Today, that arrangement has been inverted. Industry now funds roughly three-quarters of U.S. research and development, while Washington’s share is less than a fifth. Because the cutting edge increasingly emerges from commercial labs, the

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Putting Armageddon on Autopilot: How Artificial Intelligence Could Make Nuclear Threats More Effective

Joshua Schwartz — Tue, 11 Aug 2026 07:30:08 +0000

Nine countries now possess nuclear weapons. Arms control agreements painstakingly built over decades have collapsed. Geopolitical competition is intensifying rivalries between nuclear-armed powers. North Korea continues expanding its arsenal and delivery systems. China is on a trajectory to go from roughly 600 warheads today to around 1,500 by 2035. Meanwhile, Russia bears most of the responsibility for the expiration of New START and is developing an array of exotic new nuclear delivery systems designed to circumvent missile defenses. This includes nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed cruise missiles and underwater drones, hypersonic glide vehicles, and a nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapon. Although most recent focus

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