BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Thursday Watch

2026-04-15T22:56:00.010-04:00

Around X:

@ZeroHedge

Business Financial Distress Nears COVID Levels As Sole Trader Numbers Rise.
Ruben Gallego caught partying in Puerto Rico! Eric Swalwell & him spent campaign funds the same day in PR during his boozy wedding weekend. Donor money can’t pay for a wedding… Swalwell is already under investigation for breaking federal election law. Is Ruben next?? (video)
JUST IN - Israeli megadonor Miriam Adelson gives $40 million to Republican super PACs for midterm elections.
SHOCK POLL: Steve Hilton leads every Democrat in the crowded field for 2026 California Governor Election, with 25% support. California - 2026 Governor - Open Primary. Steve Hilton 25% (+9). Tom Steyer 16%. Katie Porter 14%. Matt Mahan 8%.
Major Israeli PAC Flips: Tel Aviv Should Pay Out-Of-Pocket If It Wants US Weapons.
Florida couldn't get better advertising if if paid billions. (video)
Pentagon Accused Of Cover-Up After Missing Deadline On 46 Military UAP Videos.
Russian Defense Ministry’s statement must be taken literally: the list of European facilities which make drones & other equipment is a list of potential targets for the Russian armed forces. When strikes become a reality depends on what comes next. Sleep well, European partners!
disgraced Epstein BFF Larry Summers is why Sam Altman is still in charge of OpenAI after the coup.
Treasury Secretary Says Order On Citizenship Proof For Banking Is 'In Process'.
White House: 'Era Of Amnesty Is Over'.
Tax-Day Triggers Stocks Up, Oil Up, VIX Up As Bears Get The BIRD.

@CNBC

Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
Asia markets set to open higher as hopes of U.S.-Iran deal lift Wall Street to records.
Epstein accusations fly in Senate after César Chávez Monument row.
Stock futures are little changed following a record-setting day for S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Live updates.

@MarioNawful

A massive fire has broken out at Viva Energy’s refinery in Australia. It is one of only two operating refineries in the country and handles around 120,000 barrels per day. The energy minister says the fire is still not under control. (video)

@RepLuna

John Thune is blocking voter ID.

@EricLDaugh

BOOM: Sen. Mike Lee just told Leader John Thune NO MORE VACATIONS until the SAVE America Act is done. "We're back. We've got to get this done. We've got to get it done FAST." "Let's face it, taking a two-week recess with the SAVE AMERICA Act undone, with the Department of Homeland Security remaining unfunded, was a mistake. Regardless, what's done is done. Some of us tried to prevent that from happening." Time to surge to the floor for a talking filibuster! (video)

@TheSCIF

Election expert Jeff Lenberg states he has data of rigged elections going as far back as 1990 and that Bill Clinton most likely did NOT win his election either, but was installed as president in 1992 in an intelligence operation that our government was well aware of. In the 1992 Baltimore City election, 20,000 more votes were cast than voters alone, with a population of around 200k to 250k. That's close to 10% of the total votes being fraudulent. Imagine the rest of the country... If you thought 2020 was the first time the system got "creative" with votes… think again. The game has been fixed long before smartphones, Dominion machines, or mail-in ballots became a household name.

@RepTiffany

Another Chinese student has been caught smuggling biologic materials into the U.S. from Communist China. This comes after two Chinese nationals were caught smuggling a dangerous fungus into the U.S. It’s time to hit the brakes on visas from China.

@nicksortor

WOW! Kari Lake was PERSONALLY calling Ruben Gallego out for misdeeds with young female staffers all the way back in 2024. A FULL investigation needs to be launched into this guy. He’s clearly hiding things. When a 20-year-old female staffer complained, he had her FIRED in retaliation. While Gallego was in the AZ House, his colleagues gave him the name “The Troll” because of how “creepy and degrading he was towards women”. And we can’t forget how Gallego ABANDONED his first wife while she was NINE MONTHS PREGNANT to sleep with a DC lobbyist. Congress needs to be PURGED of these scumbags. (video)

@BillMelugin_

NEW: CA gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer (D) releases an immigration platform that is radically left of Gov. Newsom. It includes: - Abolish ICE. - Put ICE agents in jail & “treat them like the mob”. - Bring those “kidnapped & detained by ICE back home.” - Give CA AG power to imprison ICE agents & their leadership. - Taxpayer funded legal representation & support for illegal aliens. - Ignore a SCOTUS ruling that allows ICE to utilize to use race, language, job, and location to contribute to “reasonable suspicion” for immigration arrests, and instead, “California should take matters into our own hands and extend legal protections to its residents, despite the federal governments failure.” “This is about our right as a state to protect our residents,” Steyer says.

@ScottPresler

If Senate Majority Leader Thune does NOT pass the SAVE America Act by the end of April, I’m asking you to vote AGAINST Senator Cassidy in the Louisiana Republican primary on Saturday, May 16th. I’m asking you to vote AGAINST Senator Cornyn in the Texas Senate runoff on Tuesday, May 26th. Give us what we want or we will take away what you have — peacefully.

@k1rallik

They knew too much. Now they're gone.. 10 scientists.. 36 months.. 0 explanations.. NASA. MIT. Los Alamos. The Air Force. Dead.. Missing.. Vanished.. > nuclear fusion director - assassinated at home. > astrophysicist - shot on his porch at 6am. > JPL director - vanished mid-hike. never found. > 4-star general - walked out with a revolver. gone. And now #10. Steven Garcia. Top-secret clearance. Controlled components for 80% of America's nuclear weapons...

@rawsalerts

#BREAKING: According to reports, President Donald Trump and the Pentagon are ramping up planning for potential operations in Cuba.

@redpilledhawk

Charlie’s assassination was a complete victory for the left in every way. We still have no answers about his death. The Trump admin has made zero arrests or even made an attempt to crack down of left wing terrorism. TPUSA has given leadership over to Erika, whose behavior since the death of her husband can be characterized as strange at best and psychopathic at worst. The GOP, Trump admin included, have completely cast aside the concerns of youth voters (potential GOP voters for decades to come) in favor of the Boomers and the donor class. The magic is gone for TPUSA and it didn’t have to be this way.

@TheGeoFight_com

They’re not hiding it anymore. Companies are openly saying they want to release sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere… to dim the sun… for carbon credits. Let that sink in. Polluting the air. to “fix” the climate. As Attorney Blake Horwitz explains, this isn’t theory. These are stated plans. Three law firms and a coalition of experts are now taking legal action. Evidence is being gathered. Cases are being built. Accountability is coming. (video)

@jackunheard

JUST IN: Governor Abigail Spanberger officially signs a bill handing over Virginia’s 13 electoral votes to whoever wins the most votes across the whole country… even if Virginians vote the other way. Insane. They rushed it through with mostly Democrat votes. The plan has 222 votes. It needs 270 to actually start working. Once it does, your vote in Virginia doesn’t matter anymore. The Founders made the Electoral College so a few big cities don’t boss the whole country. This is a sneaky Democrat power grab to cheat that. “Every vote counts the same”? Lies. Virginians are pissed off, and they should be. They got played. (video)

@BRICSinfo

JUST IN: US military broadcasts message to ships violating its blockade of Iranian ports. "If you do not comply with this blockade, we will use force. "The whole of the United States Navy is ready to force compliance."

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.
China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.75 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.
Crude Oil 91.64/bbl. +.4%
Gold 4,841.7 USD/t oz. +.37%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.09%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.81 unch.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 113.0 +.8%
US 10-Year Yield 4.27% -1.0 basis point.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.64% +2.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.7%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%.
S&P 500 futures +.19%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Surging Israel/Hezbollah Ceasefire Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

2026-04-15T15:42:00.002-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.8 -.6%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.77 +2.2%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 +1.0 basis point
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -8.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.4 +.4%
Emerging Market CDS Index 156.4 +.3%
Israel Sovereign CDS 71.8 +2.0%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 +.1
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.2 -.5

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +1.2

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.0 +.1

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 -2.4
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(30 of 500 reporting) +31.4% -3.9 percentage points
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 339.34 +.52: Growth Rate +22.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% +1.0 basis point
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 809.13 +.70: Growth Rate +103.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.6 +.4
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 +2.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.5 +.7%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.6 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.7% +.6 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 3.56 +11.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 99.1% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 92.8%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +470 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +205 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-04-15T15:07:15.067-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Homebuilding -2.6% 2) Gold & Silver -1.8% 3) Construction -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

SHG, AGRO, SPIR, BC, LCII, WAB, LWLG, ASML, WULF, SWK, LII, CARR, ANL, CAR, PATK, BAP, IFS, SEDG, PII and DOO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) RSP 2) CARR 3) RGTI 4) ASHR 5) USB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) CARR 2) WULF 3) AOS 4) CNH 5) SEDG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) XLF 2) XLI 3) KRE 4) IGV 5) XOP

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-04-15T14:57:29.363-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Software +4.5% 2) Cyber Security +3.0% 3) Gambling +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

XNDU, MRLN, QBTS, IONQ, NEXA, SMR, UPST, UAMY, RGTI, TEM, BBNX, ROOT, FSLY, MLYS, TEAM, FIG, HOOD, YSS, OWL, FUBO, LBRX, WAY, OKLO, BETR, LEGN, ZM, EQH, NOW, AEO, AFRM, TSLA, ANDG, BAND, ZS, HUBS, UMAC, ETOR, UMAC, BOX, SNOW, PCOR, BZ, FLYW, SYRE, IRDM, ZLAB, PZZA, NNE, CRDO, SION, MS, SOFI, SYM, INFQ, VFC, KODK, OOMA, RLAY, BVS, CEPT, SIMO, RVMD, NKE, MANE and LGN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) SGHC 2) FHN 3) ASHR 4) NB 5) EWJ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) IONQ 2) QBTS 3) HOOD 4) BULL 5) VNCE

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) XLE 2) SOXX 3) XLV 4) XBI 5) ARKK

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-04-15T14:46:16.801-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ABT)/1.14
(BK)/1.94
(SCHW)/1.39
(CFG)/1.09
(KEY)/.41
(MAN)/.49
(PEP)/1.54
(PLD)/1.49
(TRV)/7.07
(USB)/1.14
(HTLD)/-.13
(TSM)/na

After the Close:

(AA)/1.50
(CNS)/.81
(NFLX)/.76

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

The NY Fed Services Business Activity for April.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 213K versus 219K the prior week.
Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1810K versus 1794K prior.

9:15 am EST

Industrial Production MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
Capacity Utilization for March is estimated at 76.3% versus 76.3% in Feb.
Manufacturing Production for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Miran speaking, IMF Meetings, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (HPQ) annual meeting, (HUM) annual meeting, (PPG) annual meeting, (FUL) annual meeting, (TXN) annual meeting, (SCHW) business update, (SNPS) annual meeting and the American Association for Cancer Research Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST