BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War De-Escalation, Oil Decline, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Medical Sector Strength

2026-07-27T15:30:09.449-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -1.0%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.4 +1.0%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 unch.
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.02 unch.
European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.1 -1.9%
Emerging Market CDS Index 146.8 -.9%
Israel Sovereign CDS 63.25 -4.5%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 +.5
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.6 +.1

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.1 -9.0

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.5 +5.8

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -3.6
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(134 of 500 reporting) +69.6% -5.0 percentage points
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 380.40 +3.33: Growth Rate +29.3% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 19.5 -.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.96% +26.0 basis points
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +329.2% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 919.40 +7.82: Growth Rate +77.3% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 18.4 -.1
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 -8.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 31.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.3 +.2%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.8 euros/megawatt-hour -10.7%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.4% +1.0 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.6% -.1 percentage point
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.64% -3.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 -13.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 55.1% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 44.4%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -840 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China
KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -56 open in South Korea

DAX Futures: Indicating +188 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 50% net long

Bear Radar

2026-07-27T14:32:58.593-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Semis -3.8% 2) AI Innovation -3.5% 3) Road & Rail -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

DEC, CBRL, CVE, SEI, GEV, FEIM, BOH, GNRC, MESO, BLSH, SLS, SCHL, CHRW, ASML, PUMP, RXO, AMKR, SHAZ, VG, UCTT, MXL, SIMO, SNDK, BRUN, LEGN, VCX and MPLT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) XLC 2) WOLF 3) LBTYA 4) FIGR 5) CAPR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) SNDK 2) WDC 3) LEGN 4) OXY 5) HUBG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) SMH 2) XLV 3) XLF 4) XLP 5) XBI

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-07-27T14:24:25.222-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Software +4.1% 2) Social Media +3.9% 3) Gambling +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

FBRX, OMER, QBTS, BMNR, RNG, ANDG, VIA, VERX, JBS, PEGA, TENX, NOW, SAP, SLN, MNDY, TSN, COMP, CPRT, ISRG, BKR, SONY, LW, NICE, RACE, MMED, DYN, VOD, RELX, EMBJ, ORCL, LTM, UVE, UFPT, ACI, MSIF, JANX, AVTR, ARLP, SNDA, IIIV and LVS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) DBX 2) QGEN 3) LVS 4) NOWL 5) XLY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) FBRX 2) CRM 3) BKR 4) IONQ 5) THC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) FTXH 2) SOXX 3) IGV 4) XLY 5) ARKK

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-07-27T13:57:43.046-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ALKS)/-.02
(AB)/.83
(AMT)/2.70
(AWI)/2.25
(BA)/-.28
(CARR)/.82
(KO)/.93
(GLW)/.76
(GSK)/1.24
(HRI)/.76
(DINO)/4.49
(HLT)/2.27
(HUBB)/5.39
(ITW)/2.79
(INCY)/2.20
(ITRI)/1.29
(OSK)/2.61
(PCAR)/1.36
(PYPL)/1.28
(RGEN)/.45
(SHW)/3.52
(UPS)/1.66
(RCL)/3.98
(JBLU)/-.69

After the Close:

(CAR)/2.05
(BE)/.41
(CZR)/.04
(CAKE)/1.18
(CR)/1.68
(FE)/.50
(F)/.36
(KLAC)/1.00
(LSTR)/1.49
(MIR)/.10
(MDLZ)/.58
(NBR)/-1.30
(NXPI)/3.52
(PPG)/2.25
(STX)/5.10
(SWKS)/1.03
(TER)/2.09
(V)/3.23
(WERN)/.24

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Advance Goods Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$100.0B versus -$105.8B in May.
Retail Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in May.
Wholesale Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in May.

9:00 am EST

The FHFA House Prices Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in April.
The S&P Cotalilty CS 20-City MoM for May is estimated unch. versus a -.04% decline in April.

10:00 am EST

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to 7.0 versus 4.0 in June.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July is estimated to rise to 92.4 versus 91.2 in June.

10:30 am EST

The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for July.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, ADP weekly employment change, weekly US retail sales reports, 7Y T-Note auction, OPEC meeting, API weekly crude oil stock report and the (VFC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

2026-07-27T13:04:34.451-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -8.3% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 +.4
5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
58.9% of Issues Advancing, 38.4% Declining
TRIN/Arms .90 -3.2%
Non-Block Money Flow +$76.9M
106 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
58.4% (+2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 60.5 +3.0

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 10.0% unch.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 13.0% -3.0 percentage points
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 8.0% -1.0 percentage point
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 3.0% unch.
US Invades Iran before 2027 22.0% +1.0 percentage point
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15th 92.0% +24.0 percentage points

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.7 -1.6%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 57.0 -10.0 points
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 466.0 +3.25 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.4 +.2%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 145.8 -.5%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (FEAR) +1.0
1-Day Vix 12.3 -20.4%
Vix 19.4 +4.4%
Total Put/Call .94 -3.1%