BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Tuesday Watch

2026-10-19T22:24:01.317-04:00

Around X:

@Business

The Alberta energy watchdog took over an oil and gas firm’s wells and infrastructure on a military base less than two weeks before a major fire killed four soldiers and injured dozens of others.
Cboe launched pre-market trading in single-stock options, like those on ETFs tracking major stock indexes.
Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger won’t support NextEra’s $67 billion takeover of Dominion without a six-year freeze on residential power rates and a tripling of bill credits.
Intel asked the FCC to exempt niche foreign-made robotics critical to US semiconductor manufacturing from a recent ban.
Thoma Bravo Managing Partner Seth Boro said the AI buildout will only be possible if proper cybersecurity measures are in place, especially at the consumer level.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.

@ZeroHedge

Supreme Showdown: Investigative Reporter And Accused Chinese Operative Face Off In Press Freedom Case.
Too Broken For Frontier: Indonesian Markets Suffer Worst Rout Since 1998 As MSCI Threatens The "Argentina Treatment".
Another Day, Another Data Center Faceplant: Korea's Biggest IPO Of The Year Craters 32% On Debut.
Central Banks Keep Hoarding Gold, But Now The Question Is "Where To Store It": Goldman.
OpenAI is racing to secure investor commitments before Anthropic's expected IPO in mid-November; SoftBank and MGX are in talks to join the round of about $30 billion.
Brookfield, NextEra To Build $100 Billion AI Hub On Cold War Nuclear Site.
'Once He Leaves, The Case Is Over': Judge Jails OpenAI Bugging Suspect After Saudi Consulate Offers 'Blank-Check' Bail.
Another Nor'easter Brews In Atlantic, Putting Mid-Atlantic In Potential Crosshairs.
'Operation Protect The Vote': Feds Arrest 28 Foreign Nationals In California Monday For Illegal Voting.
Intifada For All...
World's largest corporate bond, RPLDCI of 2049 ($27BN bond funding Meta's Hyperion data center), hit new lifetime lows.
Houthis Target More Saudi Airports, Aramco Sites As US Issues Urgent Alert For 12 Mideast States.
*TRUMP: WE'VE GIVEN A LOT TO UKRAINE, THEY GIVE NOTHING TO US.
*TRUMP: TIME FOR SOMEONE ELSE TO NEGOTIATE ON BEHALF OF UKRAINE.
Trump Admin, US Businesses 'Need To Be Wary' Of AI Espionage, Intelligence Chief Warns.
Mag7 Saves Stocks From 'Black Monday' Redux As CRWV Dead-Cat-Bounce Trounced; Bonds & Bullion Slide.

@CNBC

Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
JD Vance refrains from endorsing Israeli leader Netanyahu as Trump offers praise.
CNBC Daily Open: Tech investors buy the dip — but debt remains a concern.

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 +.75 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +.25 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 91.20 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.
Crude Oil 103.77/bbl. +.1%.
Gold 4,151.70 USD/t oz. -.2%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.09 -.08%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.6 unch.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 130.0 -.1%.
US 10-Year Yield 5.13% -1.0 basis point.
Japan 30-Year Yield 4.0 -1.0 basis point.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 +.3%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.58%.
S&P 500 futures +.16%.
NASDAQ 100 futures unch.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Stock Bargain Hunting, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

2026-10-19T15:02:36.160-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.2 -.2%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 65.4 -1.9%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .42 +3.0 basis points
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .09 +3.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.5 +1.6%
Emerging Market CDS Index 164.7 +.7%
Israel Sovereign CDS 60.9 +2.3%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 84.7 -1.1

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.6 -2.5

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.0 -6.4

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.2 +5.9
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(46 of 500 reporting) +47.4% -2.5 percentage points
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 410.78 +.83: Growth Rate +25.2% +.3 percentage point, P/E 18.8 -.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.31% +2.0 basis points
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,092.25 +2.57: Growth Rate +62.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 17.3 -.2
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .88 -20.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 37.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.7 +.4%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 87.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.8% -.4%
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.13% +5.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 3.0 -1.0 basis point

Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 82.8% (-1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 75.2%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -150 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -158 open in China
KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -4 open in South Korea

DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 50% net long

Bear Radar

2026-10-19T14:18:50.734-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Utilities -1.6% 2) I-Banks -1.3% 3) Airlines -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

FLEX, SAFE, BIRK, GEO, EHC, FLNG, GDS, XRPN, CLMT, ES, JEF, AMP, DX, MOS, CBRS, GOOD, THO, FRO, SFL, STWD, QNT, TLK, LEU, ARR, SE, RBA, INSW, iam, FOXF and MESO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) M 2) RBA 3) KR 4) XOP 5) IRON

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) NCPL 2) GUTS 3) INV 4) ENSG 5) REKR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) ARKK 2) IGV 3) XLY 4) IHI 5) ITB

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-10-19T14:05:14.422-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

1) AI Innovation +2.4% 2) Computer Services +2.0% 3) Software +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

SLN, IRON, CLF, ARQT, PBLS, AXTI, MANE, XERS, MAZE, APLD, DXC, SLGN, DXC, KMTS, HPK, PRAX, TRAX, WRBY, RGC, PHVS, ASST, AMZN, ASTS, GMAB, SITM, EQPT, SUPN, HSAI, CIEN, TSLA, GPCR, PBYI, WULF, IREN and TTMI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) EL 2) PBR 3) CSX 4) GLAS 5) WU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) APLD 2) DDOG 3) SLN 4) CLF 5) SNDK

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) SOXX 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) VGT 5) VOLT

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-10-19T13:45:54.926-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(MMM)/2.39
(ALLY)/1.33
(EFX)/2.20
(GE)/2.01
(GM)3.70
(GPC)/2.04
(HAL)/.58
(HAS)/1.86
(KEY)/.46
(MSCI)/5.02
(NOC)/7.18
(PM)/2.30
(RTX)/1.78
(VMI)/5.70
(VICR)/1.32

After the Close:

(ALK)/.39
(OZK)/1.43
(COF)/5.50
(CB)/6.79
(NFLX)/.82
(PEGA)/.45
(SPCX)/.14
(LRN)/1.07
(UAL)/2.58
(WFRD)/1.30
(ISRG)/2.65

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity for Oct.
Housing Starts for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1300K versus 1275K in Aug.
Building Permits for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1385K versus 1403K in Aug.

10:00 am EST

Pending Home Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report and the (KR) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST