BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Weekly Scoreboard*

2026-05-15T15:21:24.958-04:00

S&P 500 7,434.7 +.7%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

DJIA 49,582.2 -.1%

NASDAQ 26,305.1 +.5%

Russell 2000 2,803.0 -1.9%

NYSE FANG+ 17,342.2 +.8%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 294.7 -1.7%
Vaneck Social Sentiment 36.9 -.7%

Wilshire 5000 73,144.8 +.2%

Russell 1000 Growth 5,035.6 +1.5%

Russell 1000 Value 2,285.2 -.6%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 963.2 +1.4%

Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 257.7 -.4%

NYSE Technology 8,932.6 -.2%

Transports 20,083.0 -.7%

Utilities 1,095.6 -1.6%

MSCI Europe Banks 115.7 -2.3%

MSCI Emerging Markets 65.4 -4.1%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 257.6 +1.2%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 134.2 +1.0%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 614,352 +.1%
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.6 -17.7%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,158 +37

Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -18.1 +8.5%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 178,786 -6.8%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,027,827 +2.5%

Total Put/Call .81 +6.7%

OEX Put/Call .30 +20.8%

ISE Sentiment 145.0 +1.4%

NYSE Arms .60 -68.1%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.1 +4.7%
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.06 unch.
Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.23 +7.0 basis points

Volatility(VIX) 18.2 +4.4%
S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .67 +28.5%

CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 12.7 -4.8%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.75 unch.

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.3 +4.0%

Smart Money Flow Index 20,269.3 +.8%
NAAIM Exposure Index 77.3 -19.4

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.749 Trillion n/a

ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.186 Million

AAII % Bulls 39.3 +2.6%

AAII % Bears 36.6 +10.9%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) -3.0

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 400.30 +3.2%

Crude Oil 105.50/bbl. +11.3%

Reformulated Gasoline 370.7 +5.4%

Natural Gas 2.97 +7.8%
US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 76.3 USD/Megawatt +.1%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.0 euros/megawatt-hour +16.4%

Heating Oil 406.2 +4.7%
Newcastle Coal 136.5 (1,000/metric ton) +1.0%

Gold 4,562.3 -3.4%
Silver 77.0 -4.3%

Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 182.1 +.6%

Copper 629.0 +.3%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 413.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

China Iron Ore Spot 108.90 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%
China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 28,400.0 USD/metric tonne +11.6%
inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 56.6 -2.4%

CME Lumber 592.5 +1.6%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,406.0 -.9%
US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 342.5 USD/Short Ton +1.5%
US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 565.0 USD/Short Ton -6.2%

Economy

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% +.3 percentage point

US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.9 -4.4 percentage points

NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.7 unch.
Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 286.6 +11.3%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 95.0% -4.0 percentage points

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 151.7 -77.9%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.3
DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(454 of 500 reporting) +25.1% -.2 percentage point

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 354.47 +1.8: Growth Rate +27.9% +.6 percentage point, P/E 21.2 +.4
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.37% -1.0 basis point
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 859.89 +8.23: Growth Rate +117.2% +2.1 percentage points, P/E 20.4 +.6

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.0 +8.3 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.3 +5.5 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 42.0 -7.6 points

Fed Fund Futures imply .8%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 99.2%(+5.8 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 6/17

US Dollar Index 99.3 +1.5%

MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,870.5 -.5%

Bitcoin/USD 79,200.7 -1.9%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 210.5 +.02%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 -1.1%

Yield Curve(2s/10s) 51.5 +4.75 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.59% +23.0 basis points
Japan 30-Year Yield 4.04% +30.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.681 Trillion +.3%
Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.877 Billion -8.7%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.7 +6.5%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 190.3 +1.0%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 +6.0 basis points
UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.6 +4.2%

China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.5 +1.9%

Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 124.5 -.6%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.1 +1.0%
Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 89.0 +4.3%

South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.7 -6.5%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.20 -.1%
China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 116.1 +1.6%

Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.6% -10.0 basis points
Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% unch.
US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% +50.0 basis points
CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% +10.0 basis points
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.31% +3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +4.18% +62.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 3.15 +18.0 basis points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 +5.0 basis points

Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 12.0 +2.5 basis points
2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 +.5 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -2.0 basis points

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.9 +1.9%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.4 -2.9%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 106.0 -31.3%
High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 458.25 -1.5%
Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 239.0 +12.0

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.0 +2.9%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 159.7 +2.7%

MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 114.0 +2.0 basis points
Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 552.0 -27.0 basis points
Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 -2.0 basis points

M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% unch.

Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,432.1B +.1%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 203,750 +.4%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.7 -.7%

Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.46% +4.0 basis points

Weekly Mortgage Applications 290,100 +1.7%

Weekly Retail Sales +9.6% +230.0 basis points
OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% +4.0 percentage points
Box Office Weekly Gross $230.6M +14.8%

Nationwide Gas $4.53/gallon -.02/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 3,195.0 +7.3%
Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,553.4/40 ft Box +11.7%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,280.5 +.1%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 250.0 unch.
Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 128.5 +2.7%

Rail Freight Carloads 283,724 +.7%
TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,858,330 +36.9%
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.0 -.7 point
Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% unch.

Best Performing Style

Large-Cap Growth +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

Small-Cap Value -2.6%

Leading Sectors

Cyber Security +5.1%

Energy +4.9%
Oil Service +4.3%

Lithography/Photonics +3.2%

Alt Energy +2.3%

Lagging Sectors

Gold & Silver -5.4%

Homebuilding -5.6%

Retail -6.2%

Nuclear -7.1%

Airlines -7.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

SEDG, FIG, SHLS, MICC, ENPH, HUBS, ARX, WGS, YETI, BAND, SPIR, INOD, NOW, DXCM, PZZA, SNOW, DMRA, MSFT, HRTG, PCT, NOG, ALAB, HMC and HG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)

BELFB, LKQ, LFUS, JRI, BILI, BABA, NU, CCAP, CHTR, BIRK, DLO, QUIK, TWST, PSLV, NGG, BLSH, CRVS, ATA, OMER, PICS, TNDM, IDR, YSS and TNGX

ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Mideast War Resumption Fears, US/China Trade Deal Disappointment, Surging Long-Term Rates, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

2026-05-15T13:46:10.481-04:00

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +700 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-05-15T12:15:37.585-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(BIDU)/11.56

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for May.

10:00 am EST

The NAHB Housing Market Index for May is estimated at 34.0 versus 34.0 in April.

4:00 pm EST

Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Venable speaking, Cannacord Genuity Metals/Mining Conference, (FIX) annual meeting, (VSH) annual meeting and the JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

2026-05-14T22:42:06.724-04:00

Around X:

@Business

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he anticipates that China would commit to billions in American agricultural purchases.
What’s next for US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping after their summit in Beijing? Bloomberg reporters answer your questions in a Live Q&A on May 14 at 10:45 p.m. ET / May 15 at 10:45 a.m. HKT.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe led a US delegation to Cuba and conveyed to officials there that the administration wished to negotiate with the communist government, but only if it made changes, an agency official said.
Toyota has filed for approval to build a new manufacturing facility in Texas with a total investment of $2 billion.
President Donald Trump’s latest financial disclosures show that he made a slew of stock and bond purchases with major American companies in the first quarter of the year totaling in the tens of millions of dollars and possibly more.
Fed Governor Michael Barr on Thursday pushed back against proposals to shrink the central bank’s balance sheet, describing them as wrong and a threat to financial stability.
The Republican-controlled House tied on a vote to stop the US War against Iran in a sign of deepening political opposition to the conflict.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

*TRUMP: ENRICHED URANIUM CAN BE ENTOMBED, WOULD RATHER GET IT.
*TRUMP: WE DON'T NEED STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPEN.
Grenade-Type IED Found At Alabama Dam Raises Alarm Over Critical Infrastructure Threats.
Major Bank Faces Legal Heat Over Allegations Of Debanking Conservatives.
'Killshot' Is Coming For Earth Warned CIA Remote Viewer Before Recent Death.
Spencer Pratt Within Single-Digit Territory Of Far-Left L.A. Mayor Karen Bass.
Ralph Baric And UNC's Biodefense Contract Racket Exposed.
Billionaire Democrat Donor Who Bankrolled Swalwell Breaks Silence After Surprise Arrest.
Warren Whines As Senate Banking Committee Advances Crypto CLARITY Act, Two Democrats Break Ranks.
Communist Mamdani's Latest Redistribution Scheme: Tax On All New York Homes Over $1 Million Bought With Cash.
BREAKING: Disgraced former FBI Director James Comey claims that the FBI is "under seige" and admits that he is still having active conversations with personnel within the FBI. Kasie Hunt: "Do you still talk to employees at the FBI regularly?" Comey: "I do... They're under siege." Why is an indicted man still in contact with the very same people who could be tasked with investigating him? (video)
Murders Down Roughly 20% In 2025, FBI Preliminary Data Show.
Bad Signs: Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" Looks Like A Woke Disaster.
Minnesota 'Culture Of Fraud' Enabled More Than $9 Billion In Misused Taxpayer Funds, Panel Says.
Maybe time for someone to actually look into this: Ukraine Billionaire Spends $554 Million For World's Most Expensive Apartment In Monte Carlo.
Trump's Beijing Trip Triggers Bid For Big-Tech, Bitcoin, Black Gold, & The Buck.

@CNBC

Asia markets mostly set to rise as investors watch second day of Trump-Xi summit.
Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
Stock futures are little changed after Dow retakes 50,000: Live updates.
SpaceX IPO prospectus could land as soon as next week, sources say.

@TheTranscript

Applied Materials CEO: "Applied Materials delivered record quarterly performance & we now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026." CFO: "The growth in AI that Applied has been investing for is now in full force."
$AMAT: +4% AH.

@WallStEngine

$AMAT Q2'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $7.91B (Est $7.68B) ; +11% YoY. Adj. EPS: $2.86 (Est $2.68) ; +20% YoY. Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 50.0%. Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 32.1%. Semiconductor Systems Revenue: $5.97B. Q3 FY26 Guide: Revenue: $8.45B-$9.45B (Est $8.15B). Adj. EPS: $3.16-$3.56 (Est $2.90). Segment Performance:

@ShadowofEzra

U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz announces that $1.8 billion of U.S. taxpayer money will be sent to the United Nations to fund emergency humanitarian assistance. This comes on top of the $2 billion already pledged in December 2025. They told us USAID was dismantled to cut waste and put America First, yet now billions are being pledged to the failed United Nations. (video)

@EricLDaugh

BREAKING: The US Supreme Court has ruled 9-0 that freight brokers can be held LIABLE if they negligently hire unsafe trucking companies — including those with ILLEGAL ALIEN and FOREIGN drivers who violate CDL rules and cause accidents.

@ScottPresler

WE DON’T HAVE THE VOTES: Senate Majority Leader Thune said they had a spirited debate on the SAVE America Act. No, this is a fabrication — not once did he force democrats to speak against voter ID!! Thune said they don’t have the votes to nuke the filibuster. If Leader Thune won’t give us the SAVE America Act, then DEFEAT his top 2 allies — Cassidy & Cornyn. Louisiana: Sat., May 16th. Texas: Tues., May 26th. (video)

@nicksortor

Former CIA officer John Kiriakou says CIA whistleblower James Erdman III, who EXPOSED Fauci today, will likely be forced out of government and BLACKLISTED. This man is a HERO. Erdman is a CURRENT CIA officer, and per Kirakou, "will probably never work in government again because of it". The whistleblower confirmed Fauci PERSONALLY intervened in the intelligence agencies when they were set to release their belief COVID originated from a lab leak. Godspeed, brave patriot. (video)

@GeneralMCNews

BREAKING: Thomas Massie moves to finish what John F. Kennedy started, introducing a bill requiring AIPAC to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.

@OcrazioCornPop

RINO BRIAN KEMP DELAYS REDISTRICTING UNTIL 2028: Georgia could FLIP 2 MORE SEATS RED for an 11R-3D map THIS YEAR, but RINO Brian Kemp is DELAYING redistricting 2 FULL YEARS until 2028, letting Democrats keep their stolen seats.

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 +.5 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 41.5 unch.
China Iron Ore Spot 109.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%.
Crude Oil 102.7/bbl. +1.5%
Gold 4,616.8 USD/t oz. -1.5%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 -.01%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.35 -.21%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.1 unch.
US 10-Year Yield 4.51% +3.0 basis points.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% +7.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.8%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.0%.
S&P 500 futures -.30%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.45%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by metals & mining and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, De-Escalating US/China Trade Tensions, US Economic Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

2026-05-14T15:21:01.988-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -.2%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.0 +1.0%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -1.0 basis point
European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.1 -1.4%
Emerging Market CDS Index 156.9 -.1%
Israel Sovereign CDS 60.0 -3.9%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.8 -2.3

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.5 -2.0

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.7 +.4

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.5 -6.1
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +25.1% -.1 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 353.91 -.37: Growth Rate +27.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.2 +.2
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.36% -6.0 basis points
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 858.35 +1.70: Growth Rate +116.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.5 +.2
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +1.0 basis point
US Yield Curve 46.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 188.2 -.3%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.6% +.7 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% +.3 percentage point
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -1.0 basis point
1-Year TIPS Spread 3.14 -7.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 95.3% (-3.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 85.4%(-5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +380 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -4 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/energy/consumer discretionary sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 100% Net Long