BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Weekly Scoreboard*

2026-05-01T15:16:00.002-04:00

S&P 500 7,234.0 +1.0%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

DJIA 49,564.0 +.7%

NASDAQ 25,130.8 +1.1%

Russell 2000 2,809.4 +.9%

NYSE FANG+ 16,412.0 +1.1%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 288.9 -.7%
Vaneck Social Sentiment 34.31 +.6%

Wilshire 5000 71,588.0 +.9%

Russell 1000 Growth 4,836.4 +.4%

Russell 1000 Value 2,270.7 +1.5%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 989.4 +.9%

Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 256.4 -.2%

NYSE Technology 8,339.7 +1.9%

Transports 20,627.2 -1.1%

Utilities 1,157.3 +.3%

MSCI Europe Banks 115.1 +1.0%

MSCI Emerging Markets 63.9 +.4%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 255.3 +.6%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 132.5 -.3%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 612,393 +.1%
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.0 -36.5%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,124 -601

Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.6 +5.0%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 192,302 -6.9%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,984,747 -5.2%

Total Put/Call .73 +6.4%

OEX Put/Call .19 -66.0%

ISE Sentiment 177.0 +8.6%

NYSE Arms 1.14 -27.6%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 116.8 +2.1%
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +5.0 basis points
Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.05 -5.0 basis points

Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -9.1%
S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .55 -29.9%

CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.9 -2.5%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.1 +.6%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.1 -1.3%

Smart Money Flow Index 20,322.8 -.5%
NAAIM Exposure Index 94.2 unch.

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.626 Trillion -.1%

ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$17.738 Million

AAII % Bulls 38.1 -17.2%

AAII % Bears 39.7 +15.4%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) unch.

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 395.1 +3.5%

Crude Oil 102.20/bbl. +6.8%

Reformulated Gasoline 359.6 +7.2%

Natural Gas 2.79 +9.9%
US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 76.9 USD/Megawatt +2.7%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

Heating Oil 395.3 -.3%
Newcastle Coal 137.8 (1,000/metric ton) +6.8%

Gold 4,619.1 -1.9%
Silver 75.75 +.1%

Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 177.7 -1.5%

Copper 597.4 -1.0%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 405.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 25,450.0 USD/metric tonne +8.4%
inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 59.4 -1.0%

CME Lumber 585.0 +.2%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,416.3 +3.4%
US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton +1.5%
US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 641.5 USD/Short Ton -1.7%

Economy

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% n/a

US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.5 -1.5 percentage points

NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.0 +17.5%
Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 178.7 +6.7%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 95.0% +3.0 percentage points

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 352.9 -37.5%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.2
DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(315 of 500 reporting) +28.4% +3.1 percentage points

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 347.47 4.90: Growth Rate +25.4% +1.8 percentage points, P/E 20.8 unch.
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.23% +5.0 basis points
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +61.9% -252.6 percentage points
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 836.95 +15.04: Growth Rate +111.4% +3.8 percentage points, P/E 19.4 -.3

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 +8.2 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.8 -22.4 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.9 +9.8 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 7.1%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 92.9%(-.9 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 6/17

US Dollar Index 98.17 -.34%

MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,864.4 -.2%

Bitcoin/USD 78,555.0 +.4%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 210.0 -1.4%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 +43%

Yield Curve(2s/10s) 49.25 -4.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +7.0 basis points
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.75% +7.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.652 Trillion -.1%
Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.052 Billion +4.3%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.2 -.2%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 193.5 +2.4%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 82.0 +4.0 basis points
UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.7 +.4%

China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.0 -2.1%

Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 118.3 -9.0%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.9 +.1%
Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 83.0 +6.7%

South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.5 -1.5%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.08 -.8%
China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 113.07 +.2%

Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% unch.
US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% unch.
CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.28% +18.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.56% unch.
1-Year TIPS Spread 3.24 +8.0 basis points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 +6.0 basis points

Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 1.25 -3.0 basis points
2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 +.75 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +1.5 basis points

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.96 -1.1%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 78.2 +4.9%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 104.0 -2.9%
High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 490.75 -3.3%
Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 218.0 -29.0

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.2 -1.8%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 159.3 -.7%

MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 114.0 +4.0 basis points
Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 579.0 -1.0 basis point
Avg. Auto ABS OAS .51 -2.0 basis points

M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% -30.0 basis points

Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,423.7B +.3%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 207,500 -1.7%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.2 -.3%

Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.35% -1.0 basis point

Weekly Mortgage Applications 298,500 -1.6%

Weekly Retail Sales +7.1% +20.0 basis points
OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +14.0% +4.0 percentage points
Box Office Weekly Gross $123.9M -22.0%

Nationwide Gas $4.39/gallon +.33/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 2,686.0 +.8%
Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,216.4/40 ft Box -.7%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,269.6 +4.8%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 240.0 -4.0%
Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 129.3 -2.6%

Rail Freight Carloads 281,788 +1.5%
TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,748,380 +31.3%
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 +.9 point
Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 43.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

Large-Cap Value +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Leading Sectors

Networking +6.3%

Computer Hardware +4.8%
Energy +4.6%

Alt Energy +4.5%

Healthcare Providers +3.8%

Lagging Sectors

Biotech -1.6%

Airlines -2.5%

Homebuilding -2.7%

Medical Equipment -4.0%

Gold & Silver -6.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (80)

FIVN, ATOM, TEAM, WOLF, LWLG, XNDU, TWLO, BAND, AXTI, ETON, MRAM, NUTX, RDDT, AAOI, NVT, NBIS, VEEV, MLYS, BTSG, CWST, EHC, NICE, MXL, TRN, NVTS, DCBO, ARVN, CBOE, CSIQ, TWO, NVCR, GRRR, DDOG, CORT, GTLB, NAVN, MGNI, VIAV, CRWV, FIG, DXYZ, ZM, FSLR, ORN, ACHC, ILMN, STX, PRCH, EMN, AMBQ, AIG, MTZ, ADTN, SIMO, PHAT, ARDT, GLXY, XHR, THC, AAPL, CELC, TSLA, NOK, OPRA, UPWK, SHIP, BSTZ, EL, NVO, RMAX, UAMY, LLY, MTRN, FLYW and SNOW

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (40)

AOSL, MPWR, TSCO, IDCC, FLS, PH, FLGT, EGO, JOE, SYK, CLB, COHU, SPXC, CRI, NMIH, CNK, RIVN, HCC, IRTC, SNDX, ORKA, MMSI, IMAX, LAZ, AX, FET, CLX, ALHC, INGM, BIO, PWP, RYAN, DLB, ATMU, RBLX, CBIO, TREE and SMMT

ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

2026-05-01T13:42:00.003-04:00

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +n/a open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-05-01T12:07:00.004-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(AXSM)/-.82
(KRYS)/1.49
(NCLH)/.14
(TSN)/.78

After the Close:

(ADTN)/.09
(AEIS)/1.98
(ALSN)/2.07
(BCC)/.42
(BWXT)/.92
(FANG)/3.66
(DUOL)/.77
(FN)/3.56
(IAC)/-.34
(LSCC)/.37
(ON)/.61
(OSIS)/2.54
(POWL)/1.36
(TDW)/.68
(RIG)/.08
(VNO)/.51
(WMB)/.63

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

Factory Orders for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus unch. in Feb.
Final Durable Goods Orders readings for March.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Williams speaking, SEMICON Southeast Asia Conference, (TTD) annual meeting, (UBER) annual meeting, (AFL) annual meeting, (BAC) annual meeting, (LLY) annual meeting and the Barclays Americas Select Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

2026-04-30T23:01:00.005-04:00

Around X:

@Business

Tokyo’s key inflation gauge unexpectedly slowed and remained below the Bank of Japan’s target, supporting policymakers’ cautious approach toward resuming interest-rate hikes.
Petrobras pumped record oil and gas volumes in the first quarter and ran its refineries near full capacity, underscoring Brazil’s growing importance to global energy markets disrupted by the Iran war.
OpenAI's CFO hits back at talk that it's missing internal sales and user targets.
A recent flurry of data underscores how the AI investment boom is propelling trade, investment and consumption in some corners, while the energy shock from the Iran war is inhibiting them in others.
Tesla generated more than half a billion dollars in revenue last year from selling products to two of Elon Musk’s other companies, the carmaker disclosed in an amended annual filing.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

@ZeroHedge

@CNBC

Australia and Japan markets set to climb, looking past Iran war escalation fears.
Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
Veeva Systems to join S&P 500 index, replacing Coterra Energy.
Reddit's CEO calls his company 'the fuel' for artificial intelligence.
Stock futures are little changed after the S&P 500 hits a record to wrap April's trading: Live updates.
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Apple, Roblox, Reddit, Roku & more.
Apple reports earnings and revenue beat, boosted by services business.
Tech stocks close out best month since start of Covid pandemic in 2020.

@TheTranscript

$AAPL Apple Q2 FY 2026 results [USD, YoY]:
Atlassian CEO: "...our incredible Q3 results..." CFO: "We delivered strong financial results in Q3. Total revenue growth exceeded expectations, as Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 29% YoY..." $TEAM: +21% AH.
SanDisk CEO: "This quarter marks a fundamental inflection point for Sandisk."
$SNDK: -8% AH.
Twilio CEO: "Q1 was a milestone quarter for Twilio, marked by our highest revenue and gross profit growth rates in more than three years." $TWLO: +14% AH.

@MJTruthUltra

She said it out loud.. Rep Luna — The Butler Assassination Attempt against President Trump had all the trademarks of an INSIDE JOB by the Intelligence Community. - intentional negligence. - Secret Seevice whistleblowers told me they were told to stand down, leaving open the “perfect location” to take the shot. - Biden admin gave limited staff that day. - we still don’t have access to his burner phones. (video)

@TheSCIF

If you really want to know what happened to Jeffery Epstein, just ask Maurene Comey, James Comey's daughter. Maurene Comey was the one who inspected and "lost" the original CCTV security footage outside of Epstein's cell.

@gatlin_didier

When a tornado hits in 2027… (video)

@ScottPresler

Senate Majority Leader Thune wants nothing more than to protect Senator Cornyn. So, because Leader Thune won’t pass the SAVE America Act, I’m asking every Texan to vote FOR Ken Paxton on Tuesday, May 26th. Early Voting: May 18 - May 22.

@Jeffmfulgham

For the sake of our state and nation I pray that my fellow Republicans in Georgia will consider voting for anyone other than @GaSecofState Brad Raffesperger, @Georgia_AG Chris Carr, and @GabrielSterling. These three men ignored and/or covered up evidence of massive manipulation in Georgia 2020. I was just one of several citizens who filed formal complaints and presented them evidence.

@idahobeef

PALANTIR: The same company that built the architecture for military kill chains overseas just got a $300M sole-source contract to centralize every data point on every American farm through the USDA. No bid and no competition. By 2028, the old systems are gone. What starts as streamlining paperwork ends with algorithms in Washington deciding who gets aid, who gets flagged, and who gets to keep operating. The power isn’t being modernized. It’s being concentrated. And farmers are in the crosshairs now. (video)

@realannapaulina

Congress: (pic)
Fighting to remove pesticide liability protections because giving kids cancer is not something we should be getting behind. Here’s a little insight into Congress after hours. (video)
I have now been accosted by two Republican members of Congress for trying to remove pesticide liability protections. Both of which claim to be “God-fearing” Christians, but are shilling for cancer causing pesticide companies. Yikes. One even claims to be pro-life, but is cool with pesticides killing kids.
A major study found that pesticide mixtures increased: -Childhood leukemia by 23%. -Brain cancer by 36%. -Overall childhood cancer by 30%. And yet we’re still debating whether to protect these chemicals? Remove pesticide protections from the Farm Bill.

@LizGunnNZ

The most vaccinated place in the world is in Ireland. It's a place called Waterford. They had the highest vaccination rate in the world. Then they suffered the highest Covid rate in Ireland. And then they had the highest excess deaths. The local health authority got an award from the World Health Organisation for the way they handled the pandemic. They had the highest death rate, having had the highest vaccination rate. 85% excess deaths at one stage they were on. (video)

@yoalexrapz

I’m hearing some republicans don’t want to vote YES on @RepLuna’s amendment to the Farm Bill to remove the chemical liability shield because they “don’t like Luna”. If you put petty political differences over the safety of children you are trash and I will make sure conservative moms know exactly who you are.

@RandPaul

I've said it from the beginning: lying to Congress is a felony. Destroying federal records is a felony. Advising others to destroy federal records is a felony. Fauci did all three. His adviser was just indicted. Fauci is next. The deadline to prosecute Fauci is May 11. The DOJ must act now.

@VoicesUnheard

The House has just voted for another 3 years of warrantless spying on Americans. The FISA Section 702 Bill passed 235-191, essentially destroying the 4th Amendment in the process. Only 22 brave souls- *Massie, * Biggs, * Davidson, * Roy, *Burchett, * Crane, * Gosar, *Perry, * Norman, * Clyde, *Self, *Miller, *Hageman, * Luna, * Mills, *Brecheen, * Bishop, Spartz, & MANY more voted NO. The rest were either scared off or bribed. Boebert, Burlison, and Cloud are the worst of the worst, they campaigned on ending this abuse but sold you out when it mattered. Last week’s “no” votes meant absolutely nothing, they were lying all along. Don’t fall for their misleading tweets. TALK IS CHEAP. Check if your rep sold you out too. This isn't just about privacy, it's about control. If they can spy on you without cause, what's left? Or rather, what's next?

@redpillb0t

Walmart is officially going full force and is rolling out digital price tags in all 4,600 US stores, with digital screens replacing paper price tags by the end of 2026. Every shelf. Every store. All controlled remotely from one central system. This gives Walmart the ability to change the price of any product at any moment. Based on demand, time of day, inventory levels, or whatever algorithm they choose. And the moment Walmart moves, every major retailer in the country will follow. Once everything turns digital, it's game over. (video)

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 +1.25 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -.25 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.64%.
Crude Oil 105.90/bbl. +.8%
Gold 4,641.8 USD/t oz. +.3%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.05%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.51 +.06%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 117.0 unch.
US 10-Year Yield 4.39% +2.0 basis points.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.74% -1.0 basis point.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.4%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
S&P 500 futures +.25%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

2026-04-30T15:22:00.003-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.7 -2.3%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.2 +2.6%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 +3.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.0 -1.2%
Emerging Market CDS Index 161.6 -1.0%
Israel Sovereign CDS 66.1 -3.9%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.2
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.3 +2.0

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +2.5

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.8 -3.9

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.5 +7.5
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(286 of 500 reporting) +30.1% +7.4 percentage points
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.93 +.71: Growth Rate +24.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.13% +1.0 basis point
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +72.7% -241.8 percentage points
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 825.69 +1.10: Growth Rate +108.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -.2
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +2.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.2 +.6%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.2% -1.2 percentage points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% n/a
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.38% -5.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 3.32 -2.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.8% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 85.3%(-13.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +576 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 100% Net Long