Panthers rumors, news, and speculation

Sometimes it's About The Picks You Don't Make

2026-04-27T08:14:00.001-04:00

Carolina had some choices it made, that cost opportunity elsewhere. That doesn't make it bad - honestly choosing a group of OT, DT, WR, CB in the top four was a much higher value grouping than the TE, S, ILB group that so many were clamoring for.

But after 83, there was not a realistic point in drafting a lot of positions. I could see if they still swung for the fences at need positions, but that they were able to get two highly ranked but lower valued positions in 5. You might or might not get a real pair of starters in Sam Hecht and Zakee Wheatley on rookie contracts at some point, but replacing a solid Trevin Wallace at ILB on a rookie deal for two more years might provide less impact than removing one of the two IDL free agents from 2025 who didn't greatly improve the run defense, while there's a real shot that Lee Hunter also improves Wallace and Devin Lloyd.

A lot of the choices made seem to directly correlate to future cuts or walks on veterans. Freeling impacts either Ikem Ekwonu or Taylor Moton quickly. That pair are 6 and 4 respectively in cap hit on this roster.

Hunter impacts Tershawn Wharton - 5th on that list - Derrick Brown is 9th for the moment and will rise, and Bobby Brown is 12th. It'd be ideal if all of those guys worked out but A'Shawn Robinson outplayed some of them and still had to go.

It might be more cynical to suggest that Chris Brazzell II is about Jalen Coker. Coker has a year, probably two really, they somewhat play different roles. But it'd be nice if Brazzell was good enough to matter when it's time to make that decision. If you reframed it as Brazzell against #20 on the list - Xavier Legette? But we've beaten on XL a lot lately. Nevertheless, WR is a higher value position early.

CB, too, is higher value, and Carolina threw a higher pick at Will Lee than at S Zakee Wheatley. It logically makes more sense to throw more resources at OT than at C. It would logically have made more sense to invest at WR than at TE, were all equal.

Now, I've made the opposite point - bring the lower value player up - FS, TE, C. IF you're getting your teeth kicked in at C or FS, no one cares if you saved money there. If you are bad on 3rd down, no one's going to say, well, at least you failed with a bunch of WR instead of TE.

Also I'm leading with the idea that these were the reasons these choices were made. And I don't know if it was. I will, guaranteed, never see the team put out film that says they're drafting Will Lee III because they won't pay Michael Jackson or because they think the system made Jackson instead of Jackson just being good.

For instance, Dave Canales fields a question on whether Carolina really values the run game if it doesn't take a RB and/or what does that say about the backs already in place. Well, more than that, I'd say taking two strong blockers in the draft, having strong blockers in place, and having two different backs succeed in the past season, suggests that Carolina values the ability to block for a guy more than the guy. Last year's backs in place, the highest value guy was Jonathan Brooks, who was on IR all year (being a 2nd, where the team had 2 4ths and a UDFA on the ball otherwise). It doesn't mean Carolina doesn't value RB, but the more valuable piece is OL because it impacts more items.

You can't say you value RB but you value OL more, but you can act on that, I suppose. Replacing Trevin Wallace, replacing Ja'Tavion Sanders is possible, it has value, they're not sacrosanct but from this view, the value is lighter capwise in replacing guys on rookie deals. To use it on my own pet project, that's largely true for the FS deal, too - supplementing Nick Scott is less expensive in opportunity cost than replacing him versus the cost at heavier positions in this defense.

Would I have taken Dillon Thieneman? Possibly. Does that make the choice wrong? No. Does that make the choice bad? Not at all. Now consider that for all the people apparently unhappy over Makai Lemon, this is greater value than that choice.

So - A Sum-up Based On Value

2026-04-26T07:00:00.001-04:00

What you want most? Good players. What you want next? You want to have gotten a good deal.

So I lined up a quick analysis of the seven picks with their choice, against some samplings of where I've dealt in the season. That's the NFL Mock Database ranking that's available all year, the more comprehensive Arif Hasan consensus that's only available the week of the draft, the Pro Football Focus analytics based listing, and how Dane Brugler of The Athletic ranked them. Any individual outlier shouldn't tell you too much, but there's a lot of good stuff here.

To start, Monroe Freeling was generally a positive. Not a top fiver, there's nothing here but good luck, although five points of variance in the first round can be a killer. Luckily, Carolina landed a player everyone agreed was better than their choice. 2.5 choices is like gaining roughly the top of 4 in extra value.

Lee Hunter was more divided. Notably, the analytics had him highest, and maybe that's why there was urgency. It'd be great to know who else Carolina felt they had lost out on between, say, 42 and 48. But there's also a real sense that, yeah they could've had real analytics saying that the Jets wanted Hunter or needed an IDL (and took one, after taking a CB at 50, with their next pick after that with Darrell Jackson Jr). That all said, the composite had this as a net gain of value, ever so slightly.

Chris Brazzell was pretty divided with consensus and analytics agreeing he was about the same as Hunter, but Brugler having him late 3. That evens out to a net of 16 in Carolina's favor.

Will Lee list just a tiny bit of value all told, again because Brugler was an outlier. The other three had agreement he was a 110s player, better than he was taken. Brugler had him late 5. This is one where, were I to have thrown more data points in there, or fewer, a lot of things look differently for Lee or for others.

Sam Hecht generally shows better value than Lee, being picked 15 spots later but averaging out to a late 3rd in consensus and being taken early 5, gaining Carolina +57 choices of value, or if throwing that in the pick value calculator, a whopping 370% return on investment.

Zakee Wheatley did quite similar - coming in at a clean 92, again a 3rd, and costing a 5, +325% ROI. Wheatley actually had the highest single mark of the 3rd day guys with a 78 value out of The Athletic.

Now Jackson Kuwatch was not rated by PFF, a shame since they don't care if he played before this year, and they're going to give a more honest eval of a full time player like an ILB and maybe give some real outlier grades for things like his blitzing. But the rest was all over the place and clearly the worst of the values. If you're going to do it, do it there, not in 1.

2026 Draft: Where Do They Fit?

2026-04-25T22:38:00.004-04:00

Now the dust settles a little bit and we slot the choices into roles. Will any players start? What will their roles be? First, there are assumptions. One, that these guys will definitely make a roster, two, that they're all capable of starting. Optimism abounds on paper this time of year, doesn't it?

19) Monroe Freeling - Linemen either start or not, but with a lot up in the air at LT and Freeling obviously the only guy with a lot of long-term buy-in at OT, he'll probably get an honest shot at being first off the bench at OT, and they don't have exceptional guard depth (though Freeling is not ideal at guard given he's so damned tall, against the usually shorter and more compact DTs). Freeling is young, frankly a little goofy, and so some feel he'll have a year. If needed, it's not as if Rasheed Walker isn't there, and that's probably Plan A.

If he's being Brady Christensen for a year, that's probably worth 30% of snaps.

51) Lee Hunter - This one could be pretty easy. Gone is A'Shawn Robinson, who became the starting NT last year. If they want to preserve that Bobby Brown III and Tershawn Wharton play 5T and rush nickel, and that they do that in coexistence with Derrick Brown, then Hunter probably has an inside track to starting at NT and the question becomes whether it takes him time to earn it.

So NT is probably worth 50% of snaps.

83) Chris Brazzell is a tough one in a crowded room. I can't do this justice but there are two starters, there are veterans ahead of him. Yet it was crowded last year and then suddenly it was barren.

Ceiling is, he's a Z getting 20% of snaps, and he gets half of the 50% of snaps where Jalen Coker is the slot in 11 personnel, amounting to 45%.

129) Will Lee III - Swear to God, wasn't there a William Lee III tied to both the Charlotte college of Engineering and also Lake Norman?

Lee's ceiling is nickel at 70% and it's also a lot to expect him to unseat the competitors, Chau Smith-Wade and the competitive Corey Thornton. He has only been an outside player, he's a little inconsistent, and so it's uphill for him to start.

144) Sam Hecht - 30% chance he starts. If he starts, 100% of snaps. If not, 0%.

151) Zakee Wheatley - This is the biggest opportunity, going against probably the weakest starter, but S isn't easy to start, and Wheatley is probably a depth piece. It'll be interesting to see how it all works out, whether he has a chance on speical teams, where he hasn't done much work, and whether he gets work at dime, where he might be more suited to it than Lathan Ransom.

To defend that - dime in Fangio is matchup against TE and big slot; it's quarters and match coverage (all in Wheatley's favor), it's an amount of run defense too (in Ransom's favor). That's about 20% of plays.

If FS, that's about 75% of plays, based on maybe getting hurt. Depth would be 25%.

227) Jackson Kuwatch - about 5%.

Carolina had two years of terrible luck at ILB and they've improved there; you have to also hope, they have a regression upward in health at ILB. After the first three rounds, you didn't have to have an impact ILB IMO, but Kuwatch is definitely a project. He's a guy who, if he makes it, he'll make it almost certainly because he's a special teamer who is on the level of Bam Martin-Scott, last year's ILB UDFA who played in 17 games but also played in 5% of defensive snaps. The important part is that he played 67% of special teams snaps, about the maximum you can play unless you are 200 lbs or under (i.e. kickoff inclusive), and 67% is awfully valuable.

Last Pick - Jackson Kuwatch

2026-04-25T21:26:00.004-04:00

Here's a really interesting one. And a really unknown one in a lot of ways. Sorry for the delay, I wanted to watch this one where I could and see what I could first.

One year starter, in five years, Ohio State then Miami Ohio, starting one year and really showing out in that one year.

6'4, 232, 4.64, he had no stats at Ohio State and 14 tackles in 20 games at Miami Ohio before his 2025, where he stepped in as a starter and gave them 109 tackles, 10 TFL, 5 sacks (!), a PD.

What I see - sideline to sideline range, great tackling, patience and instinct; he looked like a guy with experience.

I saw raw ability to flip hips and go in the passing game, which is intriguing, but ore than that, exceptional blitzing. That all said, his hands have to get heavier to jar blockers in both phases to take on blockers, and if he's not careful he's the type of guy who could take himself out of plays running around blockers.

It's a bit of a moon shot, it'll matter a ton how well he plays special teams. He's back to being all but a walk on again, not much guaranteed, but he's intriguing.

Woo: Zakee Wheatley!?

2026-04-25T14:42:00.001-04:00

Carolina went back up, and got Zakee Wheatley. After taking a guy I really liked in Sam Hecht, here comes another in Wheatley, an able post safety taken at 151 that was rated consensus 88. A top six safety with two years' starting, a little older at 24, one and two high looks, 6'3, 203.

No penalties in college, physical tackler, good feel for route combos, mostly a zone guy going to mostly a zone team; not great speed (4.62), decent production in 2024 (4 PD 3 INT, sack, ff) but not in 2025 (1 PD, 1 INT).

The trade was 158 and 200, for 151 (Wheatley) and 227.

Wheatley was a guy I liked - with his own limitations - as a good fit within this defense in the 3rd. Same as Sam Hecht.

Look, it has no real bearing on real life if they pick a guy I know, or want, but it's neat when it happens, and it happened twice in row.

That they took a corner before a safety, kinda shows my point, too. It's not that this team doesn't value FS but they definitely have a way of doing things, which is from the front back, both overall and its secondary.

Will Lee III, Sam Hecht

2026-04-25T14:33:00.004-04:00

Spaced out a bit after the 2nd trade - down to 124 then 129, then Will Lee III.

With the extra pick from that choice (which went from 196, to 166 to 144), became Sam Hecht. That one, of course, full endorse.

First, Lee. Saw a number of players specifically after the trade- between 120 and 128 - go that I liked. Including Connor Lew, Malik Muhammad. Then there's always the "they drafted some guy I wasn't actively thinking about" fatigue, present yearly.

Lee - another SEC, another Tx A&M guy, is 6'1, 190, 4.52, long arms at 32.75 and nearly 80" wingspan, has experience in outside coverage man and zone, in first look has a lot of Josh Norman to him. Lot of playmaking, lot of volatility, very high ceiling and hard worker but he's gotta get his hands and eyes cleaner.

Willing to play inside, outside, safety. Most of his tape is outside. He was a consensus 117.

Hecht is a hell of a play, a somewhat limited athletically speaking lineman with a lot of technical skill and a lot of consistency. A guy I had an eye on the whole time, who made sense as early as 3.

Trade

2026-04-25T13:08:00.008-04:00

Carolina traded back so the Jags could get Wesley Williams from Duke - Carolina gave 119 and the 196 they recently received as a part of their move up in 2, received 124 and 166.

So they'll pick at 158 in 5, and 166, then just once again in 6 (200).

124 upcoming, and most of what I wanted to start the day is still there: Zakee Whitley, Jalon Kilgore, Keith Abney II, Malik Muhammad, Kyle Louis and Kaleb Elarms-Orr, Sam Hecht, Connor Lew, Travis Burke, Justin Joly, Jack Endries.

Summing The Weekend, So Far

2026-04-25T10:55:00.001-04:00

Trenches win so far this weekend. Happy for that.

Choices were not what I figured at all, and that's the draft. I'm mostly happy there.

The guys are good, the positions are good, the value is good.

Starting with Freeling, he checks every real box, maybe not 100% of it immediately but he does the things you'd want as a backup (swing ability), he's not limited to being situationally good to run or pass, in the long term him being either LT or RT, you aren't paying vet money, you are getting quality play, and you're future-proofed against a top-heavy cash OL.

Lee Hunter wasn't a guy I spent much time with, on pre-draft, but unlike Freeling, he was in the building for 30 visit; he really passes the eye test the same way that Freeling does, and his tape is grown-man strong. But he's got that mobility that both Derrick Brown (here) and A'Shawn Robinson (now departed) have, in the run game. He's not only that Gilbert Brown NT that holds down the A gaps but, the outside zone game comes in and you're just that big guy outside the picture. Hunter was a hell of a pick. The trade thing, I'll get past. Morgan likes to guarantee he gets a guy and the cost is fairly low - the Panthers gave up about six points, a mid 7th they already don't have.

But Chris Brazzell is the one I'll have to talk myself more into. He's situational in theory, he'll have to earn it. Am I fine with getting Bryce help? Absolutely. Will Brazzell help 3rd down? I don't know. He has plenty of skill and a lot of it lines more up with the things that people don't do as much on 3rd. The best WR in how they adapt to Bryce, are often ones that will improvise with the scramble drill. I think he has capability to be good there, and so I anticipate that to be a place he'll help.

Now the next thing. 119.

Setting Jermod McCoy - probably pulled from several boards because of medicals -

from back to front here's what I see:

*Keionte Scott and Zakee Whitley are good S, maybe Jalon Kilgore

*Keith Abney II, Malik Muhammad at CB,

*Kyle Louis and Kaleb Elarms-Orr at ILB

*I would probably take edge and IDL off the board possibly from here

*Sam Hecht and Connor Lew (light injury concern there) at C, Travis Burke if you want to double up in the massively tall tackle category, Jalen Farmer if you want to improve G depth

*TE brings you Justin Joly, Jack Endries

*I'm dying to close the door on choosing a WR. I would argue against RB and QB too.

So then what of that group? Probably Sam Hecht and you get your C. Check in after the pick.

83: Chris Brazzell II

2026-04-24T22:23:00.002-04:00

OK you sickos, there's your wideout.

Exclusively right outside WR, led the SEC in receiving yards per game, and TDs, with about half of his routes being hitch or go. He's a deep stem WR who uses the 6'4 part of his frame and his 4.37 40 to get his catch radius downfield, and that's where he's best. He's a legitimate vertical threat. He stacks CBs well, he tracks the ball well.

Now here's the downside. He doesn't do a lot with the ball in his hands - RAC - he doesn't do a lot without the ball in his hands - blocking. He doesn't do special teams. He's gotta improve the short game, too.

If you get him working hard and find him a spot to contribute enough to let him go get some balls, the long term of having a good LT that can pass block and a tall fast WR? Sure, I get that part. Is this guy a starter? Don't know. Does this guy do enough to stick around until he starts? Time will have to tell. The ceiling, high. The floor, low.

83?

2026-04-24T22:12:00.001-04:00

Neearing 83. Do you want Jermod McCoy? He's still frustratingly there.

The Lee Hunter pick is still ringing in my ear a little. I like the pick, but I didn't see it coming. The trade up was not much cost, all told* - and more than anything else I see the commitment to stopping the run here. This pick, Devin Llloyd, Jaelan Phillips, they'll matter.

Now, do I think it's a little funny that they took the guy in front of Jacob Rodriguez instead of Rodriguez? Sure, in part because the ILB was already gone, but while everyone was focused on the thumper, there was a star ahead of him too.

Hard to say what's even best available. Centers have now started to go. Connor Lew is there, Sam Hecht. Gennings Dunker is there if you want to just be redundant, too (he's pretty good).

But feel like two trench picks, suggests you have to go elsewhere. DBs are on the board like Zakee Wheatley (S) or Malik Muhammad (CB), Kyle Louis is the best LB, there are WR (Elijah Surratt?) but not TEs right now, value isn't there.

*they gave up 51, 159, and got 49, and 196, so instead of picking back to back 158 and 159, they pick at 196 right before their 200. But you're worried about losing this one guy to the Jets?

49: Lee Hunter

2026-04-24T20:23:00.001-04:00

Carolina traded up for Lee Hunter.

NT, Tx Tech, 6'3, 318, explosive for that size. They had the need. I'm good with that.

But, I don't understand the need for the trade up, necessarily. Two spots. That all said, if NT was the big need, a number had gone - Caleb Banks at 18, Kayden McDonald at 36, Christen Miller at 42, that's 4 NT once this guy goes off the board.

Hunter was a consensus 45 overall.

Were it me it's McNeil-Warren but like I've said throughout this process, this defense does not do young safeties that often.

Now You Get To Work: C, TE, FS

2026-04-24T20:05:00.003-04:00

You got Monroe Freeling because you were patient, because you were prudent, and because you took two moonshots in free agency.

But you still have some holes. And you have three more top 120 picks. Luckily, you aren't dying for the blue chip needs. Yes, there were people dying for WR. Let's set that aside, maybe. Yes, there were people dying for ILB - also not the biggest positional value.

But, when you really think, lower value positions = high value draft, C. TE. S.

Nearing 51 though, two LB have gone (writing from 46 and Josiah Trotter has joined Jacob Rodriguez).

But, some good news; Emmanuel McNeil-Warren would be a great pick here, there's still CJ Allen or Jake Golday if you want LB, it's honest range for Eli Stowers, there are corners who haven't gone obviously, there are plenty of options.

Monroe Freeling, Aftermath And Analysis

2026-04-23T22:21:00.000-04:00

So first off, there weren't a ton of tackles left.

Now, am I sure that's the most pressing immediate need? Not really. Is it a critical position? Absolutely Can Carolina afford several highly paid OL in a future with a highly paid Bryce Young? Maybe not.

Can they afford to pay Ikem Ekwonu tons of guarantees coming off injury? Maybe not.

Now, Freeling wasn't supposed to be there. Five players ranked lower had gone, including two OT (Kadyn Proctor at 12, Blake Miller at 17), although it wasn't a fully unexpected result - the NFL Mock DB list had him 14, Arif Hasan's listing had him as 18 overall, but most had him the 3rd OT, not the 5th and he went 5th.

As for the rest - at the time the choices seemed to include Dillon Thieneman (Joe Person - "if he makes it to 19 he won't make it any further",), Jermod McCoy, along with Lemon (who went the next pick). That's along with the more expected WR picks, Omar Cooper Jr, or KC Concepcion. And on first look, sure, I can still want Thieneman, but I get it with Freeling, and I get it a lot more than if we had gone with yet another WR.

Good teams have readiness for their lineman problems in advance. Carolina has some of that now.

Carolina is up: 19. Monroe Freeling

2026-04-23T21:51:00.004-04:00

Dillon Thieneman is there. Makai Lemon is there. Jermod McCoy is there. Monroe Freeling is there. Happy with any. Who, though?

Monroe Freeling.

Carolina chose OT Monroe Freeling. 6'7, 315, 34.5" arms, broad wingspan.

SEC lineman with one and a half seasons as a starter, all at LT.

Power drive in his run game, big hands and athleticism in the passing game, gets a little upright but fixable, might need a year but Carolina has a year. An ideal LT option, if that doesn't necessarily mean great things for Ikem Ekwonu necessarily; while that could also put him at RT, he doesn't have long term history there.

I figured Thiememan based on what I wanted, and I also figured they wouldn't. In my opinion, maybe better OL than WR?

15 to 18: Running Commentary

2026-04-23T21:35:00.006-04:00

First real surprise tonight came with Jeremiyah Love at 3, leaving the volume of able Ohio State players all falling a bit. But a few guys who might go at 2, going at 4 or 6 isn't ground-breaking for the league (it is for their bank accounts, of course).

At 12, things got wacky.

The 10-11 trade (Francis Mauigoa, Caleb Downs) touched off Kadyn Proctor to 12 - a big reach for a big prospect - then Ty Simpson to the Rams. Two top 15 picks ranked outside the top 15.

Olaivavega Ioane to the Ravens you could have penciled in months ago. Rueben Bain finally goes at 15 to Tampa. Tampa, New Orleans (Jordan Tyson) getting better).

Best available by 15: Makai Lemon is an outlier, Jermod McCoy. Kenyon Sadiq and Dillon Thieneman are there. Monroe Freeling is acceptable. With pick 16 coming, at least one of those players will be available.

Kill that, Sadiq to the Jets. Long history of Jets TEs in the 1st and not in the good way.

Blake Miller goes early to the Lions at 17:

Caleb Banks at 18.

2026 Draft, Prelude

2026-04-23T20:14:00.005-04:00

I was very young the first time I did this. Couldn’t drive yet, hadn’t heard of the internet, I took the football separate section of the Observer and sat in the living room of my parents’ house and watched the draft, ready for whatever came, fully unsure what was coming. There was no computer in the house, now there’s one in my hand. Started on Saturday mornings and on Sundays, they’d move it to ESPN2 so they could show NASCAR. Along the way the habit became to get Chinese takeout, well before I saw myself going to Asia now 12 times for five countries (and suffering through a draft in Thailand). It’s my 31^st draft with this team, but certainly the most disconnected I’ve felt in a long time. For the first time since starting to avidly write since 1998 or so, I feel like I’ve barely published anything. Most of what I have committed to ‘paper’ has made it only into drafts.

It’s good to be at #19. I’m not going to begrudge not being top ten. It’s not easy to predict, but that’s okay. All the data in front of all of us left us unsure once Carolina did what they did last year, which was the best thing they could have done. So what, this year, then? No idea? Well, absolutely. No idea.

I’m only now staring at the top 30 visits, and I don’t see Dillon Thieneman on there. I’ll reiterate, I think it’s a glaring FS need, and also that this isn’t a defense that spends huge on the post safety, necessarily (not a team that finds no value in it, but certainly, not a team that would put a 1 into it as easily as it would a CB). I can hope they do, but I’ll have to see it. I think DT is complete; I don’t think that Kenyon Sadiq is, but I think that there’s a lot to like about him as a target; I don’t think they’ll go after him. I also don’t think either will make it. That leaves, likely, the KC Concepcion v/s Omar Cooper Jr competition and whether you take an OL or DL that won’t start. I can be wrong but I don’t know that the other CB or S make sense, either.

The volume of WR on the list of the 30 visits really suggest another WR pick is coming. And I guess, were I to guess, that’s what it’ll be. I don’t have to love it, from a team building standpoint, to go WR again. I think they could in later rounds. At some point you have to draft somewhere else. But, man it really seems like it’s going to be a WR pick again.

I’m a lot less invested this year, though. I know fewer guys past 1, focusing a lot on FS and TE this year for pieces that you probably will never see. Inevitably someone will sneak into 1 I won’t know that well. They may very well draft a guy in 3 tomorrow I won’t know. But I’ll do my best. Damn this is a good time of year, and though I don’t know how many still read here, I hope those that do, enjoy a little of it.

I'll check in when things are around pick 15.

For Whom Would You Trade Up?

2026-04-18T17:30:00.001-04:00

Dan Morgan suggested, he wouldn't rule out trading up.

There aren't tons of reasons to do so - the specific need isn't barking for instance - and you can't afford to just give up picks.

So let's think on that, and see what that looks like. To start, what's the cost?

Giving up the 3rd (83) with 19, equals the 15 pick.

Giving up the 2nd (51), roughly 12.

Both, gives up a little more than 8th.

Then we go to the consensus chart.

Let's start with the top 11. Spencer Fano goes at 11, and I could see if Fano might be 'the target'. He, as a possible backup, did TE stuff, did RT, RG, compared to guys behind him he has position versatility including LT and has fewer flaws.

Monroe Freeling might not be 12th best in my opinion, but the young guy has a lot of the same positives - athleticism, ability to play both sides, athleticism and reach.

And Makai Lemon if you need a WR, to me, a step above Jordyn Tyson. Lemon isn't huge, but he's a really good route runner and a good athlete, a slot and Z, a blocker, and returner, a competitor that would raise the level of everybody. It's fair to say, all of these guys are a step ahead of what's at 19.

But, 51 and 83 are a lot to give up. Those could be your starting C, starting ILB, starting TE, starting S or nickel; pick two. Could also be a WR or OT.

15) Fifteen gets you Tyson, the bigger WR, the more duplicative of the WRs compared to above or below - probably more of the guy you anticipate getting in 1 but also more of the guy that Carolina already seems to have. Less of a RAC guy, mostly that he has had some good catch-and-run opportunities than that he has shake and bake or tackle breaking.

You gain far greater purchase on Dillon Thieneman, though I doubt they'd go after the S in a trade up, and you gain much better chance at Kenyon Sadiq.

Problem? 15 is held by Tampa Bay. So that's no-go.

None of it really wants to amount to anything. Carolina can live without it, and needs the future starters.

5 Days Out

2026-04-18T12:31:00.005-04:00

5 days out, and I have no idea where they’re headed.

You hear chatter that it’s offense skill since they went D in free agency, but that’s assuming a lot. That's also where someone else thinks we should go, and me seeing their point doesn't mean that's what I think. I can legitimately see things going in most directions.

One nice thing is, they don’t have to do anything specific. Want to be specialized now (i.e., nickel, PR) with future returns in starters? Can. Want to be insulated against future OL or DL costs and improve? Can!

While they try year over year to fill needs, they came into 2026 with talent, and added to said talent while keeping a lot of the meaningful players that got this far. There are holes, but those holes are not high value holes. They have the guys that they ‘need’ and the most needed upgrades – in my opinion FS, nickel, C – aren’t high value leaguewide. You could argue ILB or TE and, yep. Not critically expensive there either.

So staring at the most recent version of the Consensus board, we see some options. This version allows for some options but not necessarily the ones I might’ve hoped for. In this case I’ll dive deeper into them individually before choosing. Hopefully, I publish before all this changes, because it does update frequently. Quick thoughts on the availables from 19 on, then a mockup.

*Kadyn Proctor – Huge tackle could be Ikem Ekwonu on the left side if needed, or Taylor Moton on the right, maybe. He doesn’t have RT or G experience, though. If you want an athletic but top heavy, wide and run-specific LT, then this is your guy. Ekwonu wasn’t my choice in ’22, Charles Cross was. Having a run-blocking LT can be an interesting cheat code, but you won’t ever be a great passing team, best case scenario is you’ll sling it in 3 man routes. But if you can get the talent out of him, Proctor can be a top ten type pick. That discrepancy is concerning from an Alabama guy, but then, you have time to squeeze him into being a pro.

*Keldric Faulk – Shown as an edge but definitely in this scheme, he’s a 5T, 4i, maybe nickel 3T and that makes him more a hedge against the future inside and Tershawn Wharton’s massive deal. The 6’6, 275 lb Auburn guy could 4-3 LDE but here that’s where he sits – inside. Like fellow former Auburn guy Derrick Brown he’s a vocal captain, and scheme diverse (but That said he’s gotta get more explosive and he’s not the power guy Brown is, nor is he as playmaking as some 3-4 DE; as a 21 year old, he’s a guy who might take a little more time and has to show more motor. But there’s time, with what’s ahead of him, and if he explodes into it, you can get him on the field fast. But, maybe NT is the bigger need right now.

*Akheem Mesidor – Other side of the coin, the 25 year old Mesidor has lost time to injury, and had to play 2024 as a DT. So his ideal 2025 was an outlier because he’s moved around and missed time (but had 17.5 TFL, 12.5 sacks, 4 FF). Forceful run defender and aggressive, varied pass rusher, enough size at 260, a little light on arm length at 32.5 but he works past it. Ready now, high floor but probably limited ceiling. A major downside is, Carolina’s got two starters, a veteran backup, and a highly rated situational rusher, so it’s a crowded house already.

*Omar Cooper – The Indiana motive power for Fernando Mendoza, he led the team in targets/catches/yards, coming in second in TDs in the Power 4 to his teammate Ejijah Surratt. Used as an RPO target, he’s a project to a point, to where he’d start out as a RAC option and probably a slot, but he’s explosive with the ball in his hands, he creates; he works well over the middle and can create in his routes/improvises. All of that works in the short term, but longer term, if he were to start, he’d have to show he can win with his routes, stems, and so on. He can’t be schemed into winning.

*Emmanuel McNeil-Warren – I remain certain that, though he was a boundary defender in college, that he might be a SS in this scheme. Strong downhill, TE capability, all that. Carolina has a near star-level player in Tre’Von Moehrig there, a guy who could possibly start in Lathan Ransom, and two rosterable players in Isaiah Simmons and Demani Richardson, none of whom I currently think should be at FS. Carolina only really has Nick Scott at FS and EMW could be a good post safety, but I think he could be an exceptional SS. That's the odd part about draft analysis - you view EMW versus Thieneman and see that Thieneman is definitely more the FS, and definitely fits the slot better, but once you make a choice, you're left in the concrete realization of only that player you choose.

*Blake Miller - big RT, has a lot of value at that one spot. He's upright but wide, good contact balance, he's a mover in the run game. But he's got cleanup to do in the pro passing game, where he can't afford to lean and he can't afford to be late anymore. He fits, if it's to replace Taylor Moton, but he has more flaws than Moton; he can't kick inside to G because he's upright, he can't play left. The floor is variable, the value tough because a RT is valuable but man, you'd love a guy who could at least backup both initially.

*Caleb Lomu – The nice thing about LTs that pass block? They’re good at that part. The downside usually? They aren’t always good at the rest, and so lies Lomu, who seems to come out with a lot of the same profile as Brady Christensen – good athleticism, clean tape against pretty light competition at LT, and good effort and show in the run game but not tons of pop or drive. He’ll need a year to become pro ready with strength and conditioning, maybe. If you like your LT to be a LT, great. This might be that guy. Of course, a common thread with most of these guys this year this high, Lomu, Proctor, and Blake Miller are all stuck at one position, it seems.

*KC Concepcion – if you kept the inside/outside bit from Cooper, but added better separation, that’s Concepcion. Sounds great, right? So why’s he listed lower? Details aren’t as good – some drops, some mess-ups. Hard worker, though. Former NCSU guy who adds YAC, and honestly, PR (16.5 YPR and 2 scores in 2025), but can become a starter and is used to high volume. Moving to the SEC and doing it there, helped his stock. Like the fit.

*Avieon Terrell – The highest CB, and it’s a scheme that values CB over S, Terrell is a smaller CB on a team that likes a bigger CB; he absolutely makes a ton of sense as a slot, but longer term as a starting CB, he has positives and negatives IN THIS SCHEME. Plenty good CB overall, but he’s a different type of guy than what Carolina has in its top group. Is he a guy who you take in 1 to mostly play nickel, then? That would be iffy, right?

So you have a pick at 19. I'd love to trade down - there are not players I absolutely have to have more than I'd really like Thieneman or Sadiq - although I don't know if they'd pick either. I don't love projecting trades and I don't think they'll get trade options that are great.

So I'll split it up. One pick, I'll take the WR. Let's have Concepcion.

19. KC Concepcion - you get PR, you get 3rd WR, you get RAC, maybe some deep ball as much as this offense even does deep ball.

Then the other option is "not a WR".

19, My pick: EMW - I can't shake that it's my pick and in my world, the S is the big 'problem' in this defense. I don't know if they will choose, I don't know if they value S as much as CB or WR, and the 3rd S off the board at 19 might bring some iffiness, I get all that. I think Moehrig really made a lot of things better, and what I want is, that again but for 3rd down and the back end. Tie it all together.

19, My Guess: I will admit in this process I forgot how much I like Keldrick Faulk, who is rush but without being fully duplicative of edge here. I think he gives you an ideal 5T and I don't know if you completely have one - is Bobby Brown III all NT and Tershawn Wharton all 5T? Do both kinda fit in the space between? Do you really need a 3T still to rush on 3rd down? In a fluid way, Faulk handles some of that and exit ramps you in case Wharton doesn't work - along with possibly improving your inside rush without having to steal from end to do it. There are parts of that Mesidor handles, too.

Then on to 51:

51 (Concepcion track): Jake Golday, LB - still plenty good at LB, and probably still at least as much as they need. I'd ideally prefer S, but is AJ Haulcy a SS? Maybe.

51 (EMW track): Germie Bernard, WR - plenty of shake, fits, there's a lot to like here. For all that Concepcion brings, Bernard doesn't really bring so much less of it that Carolina would suffer.

51 (Faulk track): Eli Stowers, TE - could easily constrain this to Bernard, too - I do very much like Stowers, an athlete waiting to be fully unlocked. Is he fool's gold? Or does the team just need to be better on 3rd at all costs, more than it needs another WR? TEs are famously unproductive, and by no means is Stowers the same guy as Harold Fannin Jr, but man I wish we had that production. If Stowers can ramp up fast, he could impact at a high level.

83 (Concepcion, Golday Track):Oscar Delp, TE - There's some smoke around the 6'5, 245 lb Delp with Carolina. The highs are high - he's a good RAC short guy, he's good deep, and he has some pretty good C gap blocks. The floor is lower, and he played his final season hurt, along with him not being great on intermediate routes. Doubling up on skill has a potential downside, sure.

83 (EMW, Bernard Track): Logan Jones, C - I wildly under-served OL in this entire exercise, but I didn't love how guys fell (Gennings Dunker in 2 made sense but he's only right side, I like Sam Hecht more than Jones, I have some concerns about Connor Lew because of the injury). Jones is barely 300, and barely 6'2.5, he's maxed out; but he's enough, he's strong, and he can start.

83 (Faulk, Stowers Track): Zakee Wheatley, S - This is the last point you could take a S and hope for much potential to push. I like Wheatley as the FS here a lot more than the similarly talented Genesis Smith (who's a FS but isn't physical as a tackler), or Jalon Kilgore (physically superior but will have to learn how to be more in control, which will take time if it does come, and while he's got the skill set, he doesn't have as much deep safety tape). Wheatley is consistently strong in both phases, if also at times he plays a little out of control proving himself as a run defender. Wheatley committed zero penalties in college, a stat I just think is cool.

First Track:

I got you WR fetishists KC Concepcion, Jake Golday for ILB, and Oscar Delp. You can't complain this track didn't give Bryce Young enough help, and you get some pop for ILB. I do think, outside of special teams, I don't think you are in huge need of an ILB for competition after a guy like Golday. I think from a real needs standpoint, TE and WR have gotten flipped, but to Moneyball that BS, what you really need are more 3rd down options and more ways to get to 3rd down cleanly.

Second Track: I suppose this one's more for me - Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is not a perfect post safety here but he's a very good football player, an instinctive one, and an upgrade to the team's biggest single problem. I'd love to think that Dillon Thieneman is the pick if he's there, but who knows. I keep thinking they will ignore S entirely. But that defeatist trash attitude is what turned me wrong with Nic Scourton (just big enough for the edge) and Princely Umanmielen (definitely smaller) where I worried so much they were going to take another DJ Johnson type.

EMW would be a fine starting S. Adding Germie Bernard still shows you can get a good WR after 1, and Bernard surely is. Jones as a C, no qualms there, he's a very solid one.

Third track:

Sneakily good with Keldrick Faulk bolstering the middle and rushing the inside, Eli Stowers being the TE they need, and still landing a S with good value (if Wheatley doesn't necessarily provide tons of special teams value from his past).

To finish it out, I don't find tons of value in pairing up the 119 pick with the above, but

Chris McClellan at DT looks worth a chance if you feel you can get him to drop his pad level;
OT Jude Bowry provides swing tackle ability and bigtime athleticism, if you're willing (and have time to develop him)
Tacario Davis is an absolutely immense (6'3.5, 195) CB you'd love to have for gunner duty and development

Any of those are fine and you'd always take a special teamer of any flavor after here.

19 Days Until Pick 19

2026-04-11T15:12:00.000-04:00

With apologies – I have straight up disappeared but for good reason, after several work trips to Asia over the years, I finally did one for leisure, taking a week to Japan. Wild. Tired. Very much changed by the experience and the adventure. Catching up. 19 days to go and I don't have a guy I have to have at the 19 pick.

Dave Canales noted he doesn’t like to draft for depth. Now, there’s some copout there – you can draft for a guy who you want to start, that doesn’t mean he will; you can draft for a guy you want to start next year, you can bend that to any sort of will you want. But let’s face-value that and say, you prefer to have guys who in the first round, will immediately play. Not that ground-breaking.

Discussing a guy that will play immediately, of course, is different than discussing best player. You’re never going to say you’re not picking the best player, you’re also never going to say you picked a guy you do not need. Making the concept of discussing this stuff at all frustrating. But let’s set the BPA concept to secondary for now, and think a bit about where the needs are greatest, then goose that a little further with where those needs are most likely to play on the field the most.

*FS – I keep coming back to this one. Nick Scott over-performed, and maybe that will continue, but maybe it won’t, and if you improve competition, maybe you get better at nickel? If you draft a nickel, you may or may not get an outside corner longterm. I suppose it’s 50/50, depends on the player. I guess the want from a personnel standpoint, for me, is different than what the scheme wants, which really seems to not push young FS.

Nickels can play 70%, dimes 20%, a starting safety a minimum of 90% (all if healthy). The first two likely play special teams as much as they can.

Dillon Thieneman remains, if he makes it past 18, the guy at FS.

*CB - The more traditional of the ideas for nickel also could become next year's other starting corner, Michael Jackson being a very good corner this year and worthy of possible extension but on a team that might not have choice to do so. CB in the draft increases nickel and gives you a much better 3rd down, which is required, also boosts man coverage in concept. Typically speaking a safety nickel is a better force defender, but you hope a first round player at CB can tackle. This defense values CB more, with its C3 and C6 actions pushing a lot of outside zones.

Back to nickels playing a bunch, and corners playing 100%, there's a lot of utilization here.

Jermod McCoy might be high for 19, Aveion Terrell and Chris Johnson both provide good skill sets.

*LB - There's more variability in ILB. Devin Lloyd will be the signal caller and won't sub out. The other ILB usually can give way for the dime so that's about 80% of the time that player's in.

Now, Sonny Styles is clearly gone along with Arvell Reese. Some think CJ Allen is in range or not, and so many love Jacob Rodriguez. If they traded down I don't think they could trade down more than 26 or 27 to still do this. But 19 is early. Yet the full concept feels very, very real if they were to do it, especially for Rodriguez.

*IDL - A harder one for sake of competition against hand-picked starters, where a rookie is probably depth unless a clear NT. That guy maybe plays 40%. At least for a 1st rounder, that doesn't smell as intensely satisfying as any of the above, but then the run defense remains kinda shitty and it won't project to be incredibly better without positive change (I do think, edge and ILB are big steps, and you hope that regression toward the mean - upward - is likely for Tershawn Wharton).

*WR - You're asking a lot to play a lot here, if you do it's 3rd WR. So maybe 50%. Guess it depends on who that guy is, too - Omar Cooper is going to play a very different role from a Denzel Boston, right?

*TE - This one's intriguing, as there's no real 'starter' unless Ja'Tavion Sanders can live up to his hype or at least stop hurting himself hurtling. Right now the trio of TE all play equal snaps when healthy, but a first rounder might ascend and produce. That one guy of course would be Kenyon Sadiq. The draft drops off to roleplayers afterward, most believe. Some also believe Sadiq is a roleplayer.

*OL - Linemen play every possible snap when they start. They're also hard to start. You might get a Trai Turner situation - Turner started his rookie year rotating into RG which seemed unique, and settled into the job quicker. But for the most part guys either start or don't.

Other than the uncertainty at LT and the open possibility at C, there's not room unless something unforeseen happens. Having a ready 100% would be great. Having a first round OT - Kadyn Proctor, Caleb Lomu - ready would be amazing. It doesn't pass what is being said by Canales, at least for the first round. An OL pick is smart and Carolina is heavy with OL contracts but that OL seems unlikely to immediately play.

Which brings me here to, isn't that the goal? The best player finds the high water and challenges himself to play, but you have the best team you can have this time of year (something that, with exception to maybe FS, or nickel, they did). Is Canales smoke-screening? Maybe. Is what he's saying also true? Absolutely.

Delayed, With Thoughts

2026-03-30T10:32:00.002-04:00

Stuck in Raleigh for the day with a flight delayed, for what hopes to be a trip of a lifetime.

And wanted to offhand discuss some chatter. Keep reading that Carolina 'must' do this or that, often ascribed to CB, sometimes C, both of which make sense (although these platitudes are usually about the first round, and C is no go in 1).

But let's say that they do that. Avieon Terrell at 19, and then Connor Lew ( if the ACL is not a problem), Jake Slaughter, or Sam Hecht.

Now what?

Well that is a fine question, right?

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2026/consensus-big-board-2026?pos=ALL

So let's run it back from there.

83). My first instinct is to take Zakee Wheatley, the deep S out of PSU. He's a better FS for than Bud Clark, but I don't recognize the names as well at TE or LB either.

119) Harold Perkins Jr, LB

I don't see help here on skill, so I take a projected ST player in the fast Perkins, who ran 4.40 but hasn't been as explosive on the field. I've been wrong at times with this type of guy, because even Brandon Smith should have been good at ST.

158)Daequan Wright, TE

Ole Miss kid is similar to several Panthers already, which is what they probably need in a backup. Not time for lottery tickets. That said they do have a fuller house at TE.

159) Landon Robinson, DT

Chances keeping back to back picks feels small, even though to me it seems a good thing.

Robinson is a roughly 6'0 287 lb fire hydrant NT, a little unconventional but fast, strong.

So it's not enticing, is it? But a CB, C, S draft is a fundamental draft when you have a good team. They think they are good. Hope they are.

I know there's chatter about Nick Samac, and fair. I think CB or S is likely but it might be hard to expect both. I know people are reading this expecting WR and OT early. Maybe. Who knows. I support OT more than WR. But none of these picks will aid 3rd down O either, and I don't know what will. But another WR at 19 is a luxury. A big one.

19 Guesses, 31 Days Out

2026-03-23T08:23:00.004-04:00

I reverted this one to draft and re-upped to add a lot more... Please reread if interested

A thought specifically about Carolina's spot in 1, with a month out. 19 is a precarious spot in the draft. Since there are usually more teams with a first round pick than a first round 'grade', necessarily*.

Dan Morgan's initial draft was fraught. They were locked in on Xavier Legette because of his senior year, with possibly no expectation he'd continue to be the guy who took five years to become good in his current station. They traded up to get him and while the cost was low, the choice to trade up and the choice to take a guy for whom you'd fallen in love was a bad sign.

After that, things were more manic. Trading back, genius. Trading back up for Johnathan Brooks, bad. But in both players, certainly a lot of upside. For which we still have a real shot at going forward, having firepower on offense. Sadly though, not enough that they don't still have needs there. They took moon shots assuming they were further or without the knowledge that risks in this format aren't 50/50. They're much less.

Since, in 2025 specifically, they did not bait trades up, they encouraged trades down, and when they made moves to go up they didn't get taken for a ride (to be fair a lot of the 2024 trades didn't seem like bad value either, just that I didn't see the urgency specifically for those guys; 2025 I saw the value and the urgency).

Morgan isn't exceptionally likely to stay put after 1, but it feels like 1 is pretty static. After that it's time to remind that the team's attempt at BPA is probably not truly real**, he has what he believes we will actually want. But the concept of BPA nevertheless leaves him with less of a need to do exactly the thing he wants right at 19, coupled with the lack of blue chip players inherent in picking at 19. An upside is that by 19 you don't have to adhere to the ideas of typical blue chip principles - that a player like that must be a cornerstone at a cornerstone position (QB, LT, WR, front five player, or CB), and you're more open to the tops of some very exceptional players at other positions that might not be at sexy positions (and are also not blue chippers). Call it the Kyle Hamilton bit, because he was not considered a 'game changer' thanks to a versatility that left him less in one position, in a world where how you play 11 personnel and how you play 22 is fully different but having a player who can, is critical.

That pairs to the more classic Patriot way, a phrase with a little stink on it [derogatory] but if it were here, you'd like it, too. The Pats weren't great drafters, but they chased and created trends like going 2 TE when a lot were spread, and going heavy on backs when everyone was 2 TE. They also just had a lot more choices because they traded down constantly, had fewer needs, etc - so they could take chances in two directions like Rob Gronkowski (TE was not valued, he's an idiot) and Aaron Gonzalez (TE, murderer).

Anyway, to 19. I can't find a lot that I find fun at 19. I'm looking mostly upon BPA in the 15-25 range and I'm uninspired. I want Dillon Thieneman and I'm increasingly expectant it will just not happen for two reasons (picking behind MN and the Evero, Fangio scheme just not valuing FS as much as I do). I see OTs and edges that can be very useful - even a chance that Akheem Mesidor could be around. But, nothing that will immediately improve things, on paper. An end choice loads you up but doesn't start. An OT is the perfect choice in other ways because you have to protect against Ikem Ekwonu past the year, and Taylor Moton's not getting younger. But those players don't start.

A corner, you protect against cost and you upgrade nickel but ... allright I can see that one, the right one helps you a lot. Another LB might be able to start. There is room for upgrades, but even that is a little tighter this year it seems.

*this is a very nuanced idea so I'll go further - separately - that kinda suggests a 'first round grade' is more of an 'elite' player or a 'blue chipper' so to speak. That's separate from prognosticators who are predicting a player could or should go in 1 generically, as opposed to team-specific choices that focus on filtering in and out the basics - needs, fits, scheme, philosophy. Needs of course, explain themselves, but fits matter, scheme certainly removes some guys, and philosophy of whether they care about, say, a slot TE at all even if they don't have one, those all matter.

**Morgan probably spoke heavily of BPA last year with what seems to have been a lesser team last year, although viewing through this year's lens of what, say, Tershawn Wharton did versus what Tre'Von Moehrig did, that all does change how we view that; we can't possibly know how 2026's free agent class will work until obviously after the draft.

2026 Consensus Big Board | NFL Mock Draft Database

So there’s a month to go. And time isn’t my friend when it comes to either learning these guys or advocating the right solutions for 19. I’m not as actively tracking what is happening day to day above Carolina either, both because there are 18 choices ahead this year, and because … well, it won’t change what they do.

Using the traditional way I judge these guys, let’s assume that 19 consensus is where the choices can really ‘start’ but I’ll also look at what happens ahead of it, for context.

First, the top tier of guys go:

To parse, a QB leads off, and other than the RB, a WR, and two OT, the D takes the remainder of 10, including the usually unlikely S over CB first, and two ILB. But two edges go with two OT and you’re quickly light some prospects you’d want there.

10-15 removes a second WR, since everyone loves a WR, and the first two CB.

16 takes the TE off the list. 17, Ioane is a G and traditionally a LG, which probably lessens his ability to be picked at 19 where Carolina doesn’t have immediate needs or even ability to get out of huge contracts as of now. 18, Keldric Faulk falls outside of 19 but I wouldn’t fully discount edge; Faulk, for what it’s worth, is a high end run stopper at edge, at 280 he’d be ideal to move inside for passing downs, he might be able to bulk and play 5T, but for purposes of what I usually do, he’s not on the board. Let’s talk about who is, from 19 on.

Dillon Thieneman is an ideal FS for this group, as he can single high, but he’s best used like Carolina uses a middle fielder – in a cover 3, cover 6 way for match purposes, not the Ed Reed, Earl Thomas III true centerfielder. He’s definitely more FS than SS, but not because he can’t tackle or reduce to slot, making him a more than adequate FS here. And he has experience playing enough slot that he could improve the slot in several situations, or improve the dime role that Lathan Ransom played at about 25% of snaps (which, in a way, could let Ransom play in nickel alignments as a LB if wanted).

Akheem Mesidor really makes a lot of sense as an additional edge – unlike Faulk he’s mostly edge (6’3, 260), but similarly he has run defense, he has a very developed set of rushes, he can be deployed inside or outside rushing, there’s a lot to love here. The downside is being 25, and that’s not nothing. Carolina has two starters and a 3 year additional on their primary backup, so the need is lower.

Kadyn Proctor is an interesting fit when considering a longer term at LT. He’s similar to Ikem Ekwonu, with better pass rushing in theory. Which is to say, a big RT playing LT. He’s less able to fit at RT unless he gets worked out there, because he’s been a natural left; he’s not a guard because of his length.

So Proctor is a prudent idea based on the longterm instability at OT and the team’s existing expenditures at three spots on the OL, along with the concern that LT isn’t one of them. It’s not a 2026 need because of Rasheed Walker.

Peter Woods is interesting in the same way OT at this level is, in part to get out of big contracts. Woods would be an early downs 5T or 4i and have some limited 0/1 tech but his game is much more like the Derrick Brown or departed A’Shawn Robinson, movement to the action more than the forcing that action out of the A gap. Carolina needs depth at both of those things, and if a great pick came along you have room, so I guess this would hedge against Tershawn Wharton but they’re two different types of guy.

Avieon Terrell is an outside corner, primarily, and a nickel more for man match against bigger slot receivers. So a choice on this level banks on a few things – Mike Jackson is not going to get another contract, this saves on that, and that Jackson’s success in this scheme was scheme, not Jackson. That Terrell would be on deck. Terrell fits, though, in that ideal. If you have any thoughts toward returning Jackson this pick might be a little bit of a waste.

Caleb Lomu is an interesting case in studying OT versus Kadyn Proctor; Lomu is lighter but not exceptionally light (315), tall enough to add to that, and a lot more athleticism, but less power. Lomu is more the guy that lets you have more than 2.5 seconds when you need it, which is great; he is not the same in run blocking at all, where that also matters here. LTs can get by without being great run blockers at times, but you’d love a first rounder to be a hair more complete, right? Lomu can get bulled a little, too. Lomu does however seem a little more capability to swing to either side.

After that the value is getting poor for 19, of course.

I can fully be wrong but I believe Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be a SS and therefore outside of the needs here, where Carolina has a borderline great one in Tre’von Moehrig, a pretty good one in Lathan Ransom, and two other players who seem primarily SS in Demani Richardson and Isaiah Simmons, none of which I’d call FS unless you were in a game-week situation and had to have a guy; certainly at no point in March are any of these guys I consider ‘fit’ for FS and pushing Nick Scott would remain the largest ‘need’ in my opinion.

Omar Cooper Jr has some very interesting traits to go with what Carolina does. He’s a little smaller, RAC guy with slot capability, who has less in common with all the big, angular WR; while there’s a lot to be said about Jalen Coker inside, he’s not as much a RAC guy, so pairing these guys together has a value. Cooper is, like Tetairoa McMillan and Coker, a somewhat impactful 3rd down guy too. So there’s a lot to improve Carolina’s 25th 3rd down % here, and some to improve its chances of makeable 3rds. The tracker has Denzel Boston (29) and KC Concepcion (30) not far outside there either, so if you were at 19 and wanted a WR, and were in ability to trade down, you could make a case for some things to happen there; let the market undo the decision for you.

CJ Allen’s an interesting, and really good, ILB. Pushes Trevin Wallace down to ST, he would seem to help improve coverage an amount (though Wallace is a plus there at times in theory), and would likely provide an instinct boost and run defense boost, wherein Wallace isn’t a bad contain player but Allen may knife a bit better. It’s a luxury pick, at this level. But he’s obviously a good player, from a program that’s generated a lot of good talent in general at LB, and for this specific scheme. You could argue him versus Jacob Rodriguez (43), and behind him there are several 2nd round ILB. Which says a lot about the position.

Now, what would I do based on all this information and what Carolina’s done?

I would take Thieneman. I don’t think they will.

What do I think they’ll do?

I think the pressure would be more likely to be on O based on most of the cost going to the D, but that might skew 10% toward the O. If a true TE upgrade isn’t there, maybe WR has some jam but man, I’d love to stop spending picks on WR, too. Yet you have to improve 3rd. Just have to. OL makes a lot of sense but that guy might not see the field heavily yet, so you might be servicing the cap a little there. I think the lineup between philosophy, need, and how the board falls, leads you to take one of the OTs over the CB.

Feleipe Franks, Nick Hampton In

2026-03-21T12:07:00.001-04:00

Had quickly discussed special teams, but Carolina wasn't done.

So here's the thing, you can be excited about a TE signing with one catch for 12 yards here two years ago.

Because when that guy is playing a ton of special teams, is 6'6 and 240 and can block, you have a football player. Franks has 22 tackles over the last two years in Carolina and Atlanta, and after gaining a catch in Carolina, he had three carries in Atlanta.

This is the type guy who gets a jersey while fans argue who the 8th best WR on the team is. Being able to body a guy on KR, muscle the rush on PR and turn to block for the return, and run down field after blocking for your punter, they're tough jobs and he can do them. Playing the same O as Carolina generally speaking, and with him being here in 2024, the transition is minimal.

Similarly, the team added LB Nick Hampton, former AppState and LA Ram guy, as another possible piece. 6'3 and 237, he was a 2023 5th who spent three years as a core specialist for the Rams but was RFA and moves on. Same deal here, he can play on at least three special teams units if needed, has a modest history playing ILB for the similar defense in LA.

Carolina sits at 74 players. Quickly the 90, which would include picks and UDFAs, is filling.

Dalton Out, Dillon and Martin In

2026-03-19T11:14:00.002-04:00

Trying to catch up while the world around me stays busy:

Turning Andy Dalton Into A Draft Pick

Getting a 2027 7 for Andy Dalton is pretty damn good. Is a future 7 super valuable? No. Did I figure Dalton would gt cut? Yes. Do I miss what Dalton represented? A little. He wasn’t needed, that was obvious, and he still became a small amount of draft capital. I’m not in as huge a hurry to give the guy whose first draft decision was trading up for Xavier Legette too much credit, but better to have something than need it.

Obviously, they’ll have Kenny Pickett as a backup, there’s a non-zero chance they draft an arm late but bet they aren’t as far along as to have the ability to create such a luxury.

AJ Dillon Signs

Carolina added AJ Dillon. The big back (6’, 247 and famous for the size of his quads) was a 2020 2nd rounder by Green Bay, played there through 2024 (though ’24 was a zero year due to injury). He had 2428 yards and 16 scores rushing, and 89 rec/784 yd / 2 scores receiving as a Packer, then last year as an Eagle, 60 yards and 3 receptions for 21 more. His best year was 803 rushing and 313 receiving in 2021 but he scored 7 total in both ’21 and ’22.

I like a big back, glad to have one, wasn’t sure they would. He has the frame to absorb more than the average Panthers back, but the versatility to do a lot with the passing game is there, and he has a little experience on KR (if also two returns).

Sam Martin’s Back

Sam Martin was an upgrade last year over the already pretty good Johnny Hekker. Carolina needed a punter this year, they got one. Good news! It’s Sam Martin! 2 year deal for Martin to stay. Martin appears to be a top ten punter and a net positive, with excellent inside the 20 control and good leg.

Martin highlights a return on special teams that also brings back some other keys in Thomas Incoom, who led the team in snaps with 85% by a hefty margin, Brycen Tremayne (56%), and Claudin Cherelus (52%). Akayleb Evans isn’t a lock to make the 53 but he’s also back (37%). Other prominent players, like

There’s room to hope that returning Corey Thornton from injury will help, that having Trevis Gipson from the start of the season will also help, but there's room to improve the depth and conception.

Summing Up Spring So Far

2026-03-15T16:15:00.001-04:00

Carolina made two big splashes. They probably felt the need to impact them both. In Jaelan Phillips they added the player they supposedly felt was the best defender available, at a huge need. In Devin Lloyd, they added the multi-tool ILB they really needed, and to many others, Lloyd was the best defender available.

After that, it’s been about allowing the market to cool. Arguably the Phillips deal was far too expensive, with a range down to just “too expensive”. Lloyd, just “awfully expensive for a LB”. But unlike last year so far, they haven’t stayed on it. They don’t have as much money, thanks to last year, and they also have a better idea of what they are, thanks to last year.

To start:

They have a full front seven on paper. Gone is A’Shawn Robinson, now sadly a Buc, and I hate that for him, he was statistically the 2nd best DL and I saw this being an unfortunate possibility early. But a healthier Tershawn Wharton can be a good 5T and 3T, an expanded role for Bobby Brown III is due in 5T and 1T. Now the question is of depth, where LaBryan Ray is a capable run defender and Cam Jackson needs to earn his in leverage/stoutness but has the tools. You have a starting three you thought you’d have in 2025.

Outside, you have Phillips, stout in both phases and long, opposite a proto-Phillips in Nic Scourton. You assumedly still have Pat Jones unless I missed something, and you get year 2 from Princely Umanmielen. Inside, you align Lloyd to the similar tools of Trevin Wallace, and you hope that the early 2025 nonsense of not having the right signal caller, is gone. You have Bam Martin-Scott behind them, and you need guys to fill it because Claudin Cherelus might be gone (RFA untendered).

Output of needs: backup ILB, backup NT, maybe backup 5T. If you can line up those two in one guy, all the better but it’d be great to have the NT if you have to choose between. Depth has value now that you’re thinner and, since you’re front-heavy in money, not just talent, you would like to have a guy.

Zooming out from there, you return ? DB, and 5/6 out of dime, but hard to say if Lathan Ransom can be a FS or if they want to upgrade from Chau Smith-Wade – you can’t be 31st in 3rd down and rely completely on 3rd day rookies to make things better by default, right?

So needs remain in the back four/five – FS, nickel. These are high duty cycle positions and you can’t BS your way out of weaknesses here, though it does help to be strong up front.

OL: Rasheed Walker makes for a much better outlook at OT. They took efforts to fill in Luke Fortner at C, who can start. They added Stone Forsythe, apparently in part because Yosh Nijman has retired, the UFA choosing to call it a career. Fortner makes it a full house of starters but the backups are Forsythe, Chandler Zavala, and Nick Samac, which is clearly not enough. You’re primed for a good C choice no matter what, and there’s a lot where you could still use either an OT pick, or Brady Christensen if he’s healthy.

Summed: Depth now at C and T, and probably a RT in a year or two. Probably earlier rather than later if you can. You also, down the line, might pare yourself down from so much salary here.

TE received no changes, RB lost Rico Dowdle though that was always hoped to be a one year based on the expectation of Johnathan Brooks. QB exchanged for younger backup, WR added John Metchie III. It’s not sea change, but you hope you’ve added a bit because the youth grows, and because Metchie has also been growing year over year when available (if also not on the level of some of his peers from the Tide). You have room to make a change here, and it’s worth remembering Carolina wasn’t exceptional on 3rd on O (25th).

Summed: You’d love a difference maker in skill overall, and you’re insufficient from a production standpoint at TE.

ST: No addition, and potential subtraction in Sam Martin (who had upgraded from Johnny Hekker). They could use a PR, I guess.

Summed, but also summed:

5T, 1T but 1T if you have to choose; backup ILB or push; FS, nickel. C, OT, TE and/or skill (which is to say, the right WR), P, PR. Since TE, ILB, S means special teamers, you get special teamers.

Starters possible are more on the level of FS, possibly C, TE.

Rasheed Walker Added

2026-03-13T21:48:00.002-04:00

Carolina had a possible hole at LT due to Ikem Ekwonu’s injury.

Call that filled. Packers LT Rasheed Walker has signed a 1 year, $10 million deal, the 6’6, 324 lb Penn State grad has started the last 3 years at LT after being a 7th. Spotrac suggested a 4 year, $81 million deal for him, and though $10 million for a single season is a ton, it’s seemingly savvy, gives Carolina time on Ekwonu, and they can draft a tackle or not, but now they aren’t hinging their season on whether they have Ekwonu week 1.

Walker gave up 5 sacks in 2025, and 3 in 2024. PFF had him at 35th overall in free agency.