Obama Voter

Obama a Lock to win in Florida

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 19:28:00 +0000

They are everywhere.

I'm old. Old enough that I voted for George McGovern. I voted in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, New York and now Florida. I have never seen anything like this. Last week I received a call from an Obama volunteer checking to be sure I would be voting. On Saturday, two Obama volunteers knocked on my door to make sure I intended to vote. On Monday I was out but the Obama flyer was on my door knob when I returned home. And just now, at 2:10 PM on election day 2008, an Obama volunteer knocked on my door to determine if I had voted. I was wearing my "I Voted Button".

I'm impressed, blown away to be honest. I have never seen or experienced anything like this. This man is organized. He has energized an army. How big is it? Bigger than our force in Iraq. The Obama army is young, they seem tough, and they are committed.

If Barack Obama runs the United States government the way he ran this campaign the future is bright.

As part of his platform Obama says he is going to call our young people to community service and to serve their country. I'm looking forward to seeing it happen. It could very well be some kind of wonderful.

Obama is a lock to win Florida.

Palin: Media Criticism of My Criticism = First Amendment Violation

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 02:52:00 +0000

When you are a true believer, you are a true believer all the way.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com

Palin reportedly told WMAL that her criticism of Obama’s associations, such as those with Bill Ayers and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, shouldn’t be considered negative attacks. The media’s suggestions that it’s going negative may threaten a candidate’s free speech rights under the Constitution, she said.

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

In Late Night Rally, Bill Clinton Sings Obama’s Praises

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 16:55:00 +0000

Looks like Bill is jumping on the band wagon a bit late.

Was it Bill didn't want to do it? Or, was it Obama figured he didn't need him?

I am down here in Florida and this event and this event is not big news.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com

Barack Obama and ex-President Bill Clinton attended their first rally together, forming a small mutual admiration society before a crowd of about 35,000.

Clinton has in the past been criticized by Democrats for being too complimentary of Obama’s rival John McCain, but on Wednesday night he lavished praise on the Illinois senator, starting with his choice of vice president, Sen. Joe Biden. “He hit that one out of the park folks,’’ Clinton said. He then launched into a complicated checklist, calling Obama a smart, competent and efficient chief executive. “Folks, we can’t fool with this — our country hangs in the balance,’’ Clinton said. “Folks, this man should be our president.’’

For his part, Obama praised Clinton’s presidency. “In case all of you forgot, this is what it’s like to have a great president,’’ Obama said. “We all wish the last eight years looked more like the Clinton years.’’ Obama concluded by saying he was proud to be friends with the former first couple.

McCain Lies, Joe the Plumber tells the Truth

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:30:00 +0000

Jed L over at the Daily Kos is riled up. He wants to put and end to McCains lies about the Obama tax cuts.

In this interesting video, Joe the Plumber admits he is not getting a tax increase and would in fact be getting a tax cut.

Jed L wants everyone to send this video around to friends.

If you haven't visited the Dail Kos hit the link and take a look.

clipped from www.dailykos.com

'Joe the Plumber' a Fraud

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 03:33:00 +0000

Before I became a caregiver I was a businessman. So as I sat there last night listening to McCain and Obama talk about "Joe the Plumber" I was thinking to myself, how lucky is this guy? I was figuring each time they mentioned him he was getting a couple of million dollars of free advertising. By the end I figured Joe had received somewhere between $5-$10 million of free advertising. I thought to myself, this guy is going to have more business than he will ever be able to handle. Turns out Joe is Sam, he is not a plumber, and he hasn't paid his taxes. He isn't even from Ohio.

Call him Samuel the unlicensed plumber, tax cheat

A couple of things about Joe the Plumber, the icon of the authentic working-class voter who was declared the ''winner" of the final presidential debate.

His first name isn't really Joe. It's Samuel.

He's not really a plumber - at least, not a licensed one.

He's concerned about increased taxes - but hasn't paid his own income taxes.

And, he's not exactly just a guy from Ohio.

He's lived in Arizona ... and Alaska.

And as for that "unscripted" moment that ended up on Fox News, the one at a rally where he questioned Sen. Barack Obama about the American Dream - and whether he'd have to pay higher taxes under Obama's plan?

Seems Joe told the conservative Web site familysecuritymatters.org that catching the Democratic presidential candidate off guard "was actually my intent."

"Looks like there's a crack in Joe the Plumber's story," cracked Bob Mulholland, the Democratic party activist and adviser, after some of the details of the life of 34-year-old Samuel J. Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. Joe the Plumber, emerged today.

In an election that has starred all sorts of celebrities - remember Paris Hilton? Britney Spears? - Wurzelbacher got his 15 minutes of fame after being referenced 26 times during Wednesday's presidential debate, 21 times by Sen. John McCain.

Today, McCain even happily declared "Joe the Plumber" to be "the winner" of the debate.

Not so fast.

"Joe the Plumber's story sprang a few leaks Thursday," crowed an Associated Press story.

That's after the AP, bloggers, investigators and librarians - and The Chronicle - turned up court documents and birth records.

For one, Joe's expressed concern about paying more taxes looked a bit tarnished with the revelation that he owes Ohio about $1,200 in personal income taxes that he hasn't paid, according to the Lucas County Court of Common Pleas records. (And there's a 2007 civil filing shows a record for a $1,200 owed to a creditor, St. Charles Mercy Hospital.)

So Joe has an active lien on his property filed in January 2007, records from the Ohio Department of Taxation show.

The Toledo Blade, examining Lucas County Building Inspection records, reported that his employer, the A.W. Newell Corp., "does maintain a state plumbing license, and one with the City of Toledo, but would not be allowed to work in Lucas County outside of Toledo without a county license."

"Mr. Wurzelbacher said he works under Al Newell's license, but according to Ohio building regulations, he must maintain his own license to do plumbing work," the newspaper said. "He is also not registered to operate as a plumber in Ohio - which means he's not a plumber."

What else did Americans learn about average Joe this week?

Among the factoids gleaned from state and county records:

-- He is registered as a Republican, and voted in the state's GOP primary in March, county elections records show. But he was previously registered, dating back to 2007, in the Natural Law Party.

-- He has lived in McCain's home state - in both Mesa and Tucson, Ariz.

-- He lived in GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's home state - in North Pole, Alaska, from September 1992 to July 1993.

And as comic Bill Maher pointed out, in his 15 minutes of fame, Joe the Plumber has already done more interviews than Palin.

E-mail Carla Marinucci at cmarinucci@sfchronicle.com.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/16/MNQ013J6JV.DTL

Dead reunite for show to support Obama

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 14:53:00 +0000

Were you there? Do you wish you were there?

clipped from www.centredaily.com

Bob Weir, of the Grateful Dead, performs at the Bryce Jordan Center during a benefit concert for Barack Obama on Monday, October 13, 2008. CDT/Michelle Bixby

“People can you feel it? Love is everywhere.”

Brett Parnes, 36, a Boulder, Colo., attorney, flew to Philadelphia first thing Monday, drove a rental to State College (his first time here) and spent virtually all evening in what seemed like a state of transport — dancing barefoot alone back and forth with barely a break across the Jordan Center floor.

“This is a great town, with great vibes, and my favorite bands are here,” said Parnes, who planned to fly back to Colorado today.

Kat Lawlor, 16, took the day off from Ipswich High School in Ipswich, Mass., and arrived with three pals from Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

Teacher’s aide Keira Reilly, 18, of Plymouth, N.H., said she came early “to rage the parking lot” outside Medlar Field at Lubrano Park, where early arrivals were directed.

Do you believe Sarah Palin is qualified to assume the roll of the Presidency?

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 14:36:00 +0000

Follow the link to vote.

clipped from stasiaandbob.blogspot.com

Vote in the Poll over on the right hand side of this webpage.

Palin Interviews Spark GOP Concerns

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 00:14:00 +0000

clipped from news.aol.com

Protesters hold signs at a Hold Palin Accountable rally organized by Alaskans For Truth, in Anchorage, Alaska Saturday, Sept. 27, 2008. Hundreds of people showed up to demand Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. John McCain s GOP running mate, uphold her promise to cooperate with the state Legislature s investigation into her firing of Public Safety

A conservative columnist who welcomed Sarah Palin's entry in national politics says she's proven to be a dud and should step aside as John McCain's running mate.

Kathleen Parker, writing in the National Review Online, says her "cringe reflex is exhausted" after watching the Alaska governor stumble through TV interviews and it's become clear to her that Palin is out of her league.

McCain Campaign Disputes Post Poll

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 17:50:00 +0000

clipped from voices.washingtonpost.com

On the heels of a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that showed Barack Obama leading John McCain 52 percent to 43 percent nationally, the Arizona senator's campaign convened a conference call today insisting that the survey was an "outlier".

A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll produced similar results with 48 percent of the sample saying Obama would do a better job handling the financial crisis as president while 35 percent said the same of McCain.

Obama TV Ad Continues Hammering McCain on Health Care

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 15:26:00 +0000

Obama’s campaign is already trying to capitalize on McCain’s statements with a TV ad that you can see here.

clipped from thepage.time.com

“We’ve seen what Bush-McCain policies have done to our economy. Now John McCain wants to do the same to our health care.”

Watch it above. Read script here.

McCain Draws Fire for Health Reform Modeled on Banking Deregulation

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 15:21:00 +0000

You can read the entire article by following the links.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com

Paul Krugman, op-ed columnist and blogger, at the New York Times, riffs on an interesting piece on health-care reform by John McCain in an obscure, to us, journal for actuaries.

In the current issue of Contingencies, McCain makes his case for a freer market for health coverage by arguing that insurance would benefit from the same sort of deregulation that has led to innovation in…wait for it…banking.

The money quote from McCain, as noted by Krugman:

Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.

Saturday Night Live Video Fey Palin

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 16:50:00 +0000

Watch the Tina Fey Palin Video

NBC doesn't want anyone showing this video direct. So follow the link.

I found myself thinking, Tina Fey looks more like Sarah Palin than Palin does.

Sadly, this is like ten million dollars worth of advertising for Palin.

Does the Truth Matter?

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:28:00 +0000

I couldn't have said it better. The MSM is now all over this. My guess is McCain will have to back off now....

clipped from voices.washingtonpost.com

Does the Truth Matter Anymore?

This is not false naivete: I am genuinely surprised that John McCain and his campaign keep throwing out false charges and making false claims without any qualms. They keep talking about Sarah Palin’s opposition to the Bridge to Nowhere without any embarrassment over the fact that she once supported it. They keep saying that Barack Obama will raise taxes, suggesting he’d raise them on everybody, when Obama’s plan, according to the Tax Policy Institute, would cut taxes for “about 80 percent of households” while “only about 10 percent would owe more.” And as Sebastian Mallaby pointed out in his recent column, Obama would cut taxes for middle-income taxpayers “more aggressively” than McCain would.

Palin and the "festering, primitive insanity" in America

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:22:00 +0000

Madness

clipped from scienceblogs.com

“There's an underground church that the world has no idea exists”

That's a quote from Lou Engle in this video — and it's actually kind of true. He thinks it will be a wonderful thing when people see this, and there probably are a lot of Americans who think the events portrayed are perfectly ordinary, and even commendable.

I see nothing but madness.

By picking Sarah Palin for a running mate, John McCain has turned over a rock to expose a festering, primitive insanity in our country. Look on the squirming horror, world, and learn that it does exist!

Lipstick Fascism

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:18:00 +0000

"This is the path that America is on with Palin and McCain. The election of 2008 is a choice between the United States Constitution and Lipstick Fascism."

Frank Schaeffer is the author of CRAZY FOR GOD-How I Grew Up As One Of The
Elect, Helped Found The Religious Right, And Lived To Take All (Or Almost All) Of It Back.

clipped from www.huffingtonpost.com

We have seen the next Mussolini and she's wearing a skirt.

Sarah Palin is the face of a post-democracy America, post-constitutional and post-freedom America. She is the home town "little Austrian" vice presidential candidate to a cancer-riddled old man who, chances are high, won't see the end of his first term in office if he becomes president due to illness and old age. The woman who said that we don't need to read people their rights may well be the next president.

mock and belittle your opponents, nibble at the edges of the rule of law, promote violence,

grasp at a weird religion of "destiny" (their version of American exceptionalism) with an "us" against "them" mentality, blame others,

intellectual classes and the media, pit the working people against the perceived elite (Jews in Europe and today's university-educated Democratic Party leaders in America), take power based on grievance and fear and then set aside the constitution altogether based on claimed threats by outsiders.

Serial Liars

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:14:00 +0000

Utter contempt for voters

clipped from commentsfromleftfield.com

Serial Liars

So here’s the reason why the whole “Bridge to Nowhere” flap is a big deal; it’s an outright lie. LIE. Not a big word, so say it with me; the Bridge to Nowhere narrative pushed by the McPalin campaign is one gigantic LIE.

It’s a lie because part of McCain’s narrative is that he hates pork barrel spending. In order to embue his new running mate with anti-pork street creds, they hammer her opposition to the Bridge to Nowhere over and over again. Indeed, Justin Gardner has a new McCain ad where they hit it again.

He’s bewildered and so am I. Why would one continue to sell this lie when it is so readily debunked if for no other reason than an utter contempt for the voter; a disbelief that they will go through even the most cursory of fact checking.

cause, you see, McCain has said multiple times

that he will be ruthless in going after pork barrel spending; going so far as to say he will “make them famous.”

Apparently his way of making them famous is by selecting them as running mate.

US Govt payouts to states: Alaska grabs most

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:13:00 +0000

Gets more than it pays in taxes. "Alaska has been masterful in having the federal government send billions, while it gives its own tax revenues directly to its citizens. While Alaska could afford to pay for its bridges to nowhere (Palin approved!), it would rather have the rest of the 49 states shoulder the cost..." Country first? Smaller government? Lower federal taxes? They'll take all of yours they can get!

clipped from www.dailykos.com

Alaska is, in essence, an adjunct member of OPEC. It has four different taxes on oil, which produce more than 89% of the state's unrestricted revenue. On average, three-quarters of the value of a barrel of oil is taken by the state government before that oil is permitted to leave the state. Alaska residents each get a yearly check for about $2,000 from oil revenues, plus an additional $1,200 pushed through by Palin last year to take advantage of rising oil prices. Any sympathy the governor of Alaska expresses for folks in the lower 48 who are suffering from high gas prices or can't afford to heat their homes is strictly crocodile tears.

Alaska also ranks No. 1, year after year, in money it sucks in from Washington. In 2005 (the most recent figures),

18th in federal taxes paid per resident ($5,434) but first in federal spending received per resident ($13,950)

in the absolute amount it receives from Washington over and above the amount it sends to Washington, Alaska ranks No. 1.

Emperor's New Clothes: Palin Pork Public

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:11:00 +0000

Over the last couple days, every newspaper and network in America has disproven Sarah Palin's claim that she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere. Yet just moments ago at a campaign rally in Lebanon, Ohio, she repeated her familiar refrain on the bridge, claiming she told the federal government, "Thanks, but no thanks.

clipped from www.motherjones.com

Over the last couple days, every newspaper and network in America has disproven Sarah Palin's claim that she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere. Yet just moments ago at a campaign rally in Lebanon, Ohio, she repeated her familiar refrain on the bridge, claiming she told the federal government, "Thanks, but no thanks."

There appears to be no accountability here; the McCain campaign will trot out Palin to repeat her talking points no matter how many times the press reports that Palin campaigned for governor as a supporter of the bridge and only opposed it when it became obvious the federal government was going to cancel its funding.

Today, states receive roughly $50 per person in earmark funds from the federal government. Alaska gets a stunning $506 per person

small towns in Alaska never sought federal earmarks until Palin pioneered the tactic, even using an Abramoff-connected lobbyist to get them

Facing Veto, Democrats Drop Plan for Vote on Child Bill

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:39:00 +0000

The child health program has become an issue in some Congressional races. In almost every speech, Kay Barnes, a Democrat running for Congress in northwest Missouri, criticizes Representative Sam Graves, a Republican, for voting against the bill last year. Mr. Graves said the bill would have allowed illegal immigrants and some high-income people to get “free taxpayer-funded health care.”

clipped from www.nytimes.com

Congressional Democrats have scrapped plans for another vote on expansion of the Children’s Health Insurance Program, thus sparing Republicans from a politically difficult vote just weeks before elections this fall.

Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said: “We are not going to change any votes on the children’s health insurance bill. We still don’t have enough to override a veto. Those who opposed this bill can face the voters and explain why they believe 10 million kids should not get health coverage.”

I Picked A Girl by John McCain and Sarah Palin

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 04:27:00 +0000

Stick a Fork in MCain

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 01:22:00 +0000

Remember that nutjob* Ross Perot picked to be his VP running mate back in 1992? In spite of that he still received 19 percent of the vote. Perot proved that people really don't care much about Vice Presidential running mates and they don't have much of an impact. Remember we had a VP that couldn't spell potato(e). He ran for a second term.

What is the first question, and for most the only question, you ask about a Vice Presidential candidate: Is that person capable of being President in the event of an assassination, illness, or untimely death.

Isn't McCain's longevity an issue in this Presidential election? A big and important issue?

McCain is probably hoping to get a hold on women or disgruntled Hillary supporters. So he chooses Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. Is she the most qualified of all the eligible Republicans in our country? Is she the best qualified Republican woman? Good decision by McCain?

Better choice: Kay Baily Hutchinson or Palin? Carly Fiorina or Palin? Mitt Romney or Palin? Fill in the blank or Palin?

Is Palin qualified? Well let's ask her.

Larry Kudlow of CNBC’s “Kudlow & Co.” asked her about the possibility of becoming McCain's ticket mate. Palin replied: “As for that VP talk all the time, I’ll tell you, I still can’t answer that question until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the VP does every day?

While watching Palin I thought of a great idea for a television show. An elderly president dies of a heart attack. His young, inexperienced, sorority like VP assumes the role of the Presidency. The country is in turmoil when a war between Iraq and Israel breaks out shortly thereafter.

Who would play the role of Sarah Palin? Think Reese Witherspoon.

Comfortable with Sarah Palin? Not me. Stick a fork in John McCain.

*James Stockdale

How Biden Will Come Out Punching

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 18:11:00 +0000

clipped from www.time.com

While Biden is not a dazzling pick, the party elders who are beginning to gather for their nominating convention in Denver consider him a solid one. Andy Stern, president of the two-million member Service Employees International Union, says Biden could help enormously in reaching "the people in our union who are skeptical about Barack Obama."

"Joe's about as good a messenger as we can get to those groups," Rendell says. "And once you've got a good messenger, the issues cut in our favor."

"There's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun, a verb and 9/11." Democrats realize that with Biden, they are likely to see some occasional errant punches. "I hope so," says one Obama adviser. "Because that will mean he is swinging."

Maybe Obama is on to something....

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 04:36:00 +0000

clipped from krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

from Andrew Gelman:

Church attendance and income by state:

Notice the cluster of poor Southern states at the upper left, which accounts for most though not all of the relationship.

Influential Democrats Waiting to Choose Sides

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 18:37:00 +0000

clipped from www.washingtonpost.com

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's trio of victories over Sen. Barack Obama last week appears to have convinced a sizable number of uncommitted Democratic superdelegates to wait until the end of the primaries and caucuses before picking a candidate, according to a survey by The Washington Post.

Many of the 80 uncommitted superdelegates who were contacted over the past several days said they are reluctant to override the clear will of voters

At the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August, there will be 796 superdelegates

"You're going to see a lot of delegates remaining uncommitted," said Rep. Mike Doyle (Pa.), who has not endorsed either candidate. "There's a sense that this is going to Denver not resolved."

clipped from www.washingtonpost.com

So far Clinton, with 242 superdelegates, has had more success soliciting their support than Obama, who has the backing of 210.

clipped from www.washingtonpost.com

"If superdelegates were just intended to automatically vote for the preference someone else expressed, there wouldn't be any purpose,"

Pennsylvania’s Missed Opportunity

noreply@blogger.com (Alzheimer's Reading Room) — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 20:21:00 +0000

clipped from blogs.wsj.com

With Sen. Barack Obama narrowly leading Sen. Hillary Clinton in delegates after the Ohio and Texas votes (margins vary this morning, as they usually do, from 86 to 132), Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary looms as the biggest race remaining, with 158 delegates at stake.

It could have been even bigger.

Any state whose primary was held before April in 2004, and opted to hold this year’s primary in April, would gain a 15% bonus on their base delegate total. (It’s spelled out on the first two pages of the party’s call to the convention.) Move your primary from before May 1 to afterwards, and pick up a 30% bonus.

Pennsylvania was best-positioned to pick up a big bonus at little cost.

Instead it settled for April 22, and a 5% bonus.

That cost Pennsylvania 33 extra delegates to the convention

Abe Amoros, executive director of the Pennsylvania Democratic party, told me it was up to the legislature to set the primary date. “I have never heard the argument of moving it to May,

Last year, Pennsylvania Democrats debated whether to move their primary up, perhaps to Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Now it looks like they should have moved the date two weeks back.

With Sen. Barack Obama narrowly leading Sen. Hillary Clinton in delegates after the Ohio and Texas votes (margins vary this morning, as [1] they usually do, from [2] 86 to [3] 132), Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary looms as the biggest race remaining, with 158 delegates at stake.

It could have been even bigger. The Democratic National Committee, seeking to deter states from moving up their primary dates, set up a system of incentives and penalties that decide how state delegates are allocated. The penalties are well known: The national party [4] stripped Michigan and Florida of their delegates for moving their primary dates to January. The incentives, though, were substantial: Any state whose primary was held before April in 2004, and opted to hold this year’s primary in April, would gain a 15% bonus on their base delegate total. (It’s spelled out on the first two pages of the party’s [5] call to the convention.) Move your primary from before May 1 to afterwards, and pick up a 30% bonus. There were also far smaller bonuses of 5% and 10% for states that held primaries in April or after May 1, respectively, regardless of their 2004 primary date.

Pennsylvania was best-positioned to pick up a big bonus at little cost. Its 2004 primary [6] was held on April 27; moving it just four days later would have netted the state a 30% bonus. Instead it [7] settled for April 22, and a 5% bonus. That cost Pennsylvania 33 extra delegates to the convention. That could be close to the Obama-Clinton margin at that time, depending on superdelegate shifts, how yesterday’s delegate totals settle, and the outcome of contests in the next week in Wyoming and Mississippi.

Pennsylvania isn’t alone; just one state (more on that below) picked up the 15% nor 30% bonus. In fact, while Pennsylvania arguably had the biggest opportunity, it also picked up the second-biggest bonus, of seven delegates. In total, just 54 bonus delegates were awarded for late primaries (they’re represented by the + figures in the district-level and at-large columns of this [8] delegate-allocation document). Nearly half, 24, went to North Carolina — and that’s a byproduct of 2004 political controversy more than a result of strategic plotting to boost delegate totals. The party scrapped its planned May 4 primary because of legal challenges to the legislature’s redistricting plan and [9] shifted to an April caucus; the 2000 primary had been held in early May. Yet that 2004 caucus — which was largely irrelevant because John Kerry had [10] clinched the nomination a month before, and was planned nearly three years before the delegate incentives for 2008 [11] were enacted — nets North Carolina extra delegates numbering more than the entire Wyoming delegation.

In holding its primary this year in May, North Carolina was simply keeping to its statute calling for voting on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May, Kerra Bolton, spokeswoman for the North Carolina Democratic party, told me. “We just happened to benefit from that,” she said — so much so that North Carolina’s delegation numbers 12 more than that of Super Tuesday state New Jersey despite having 365,000 fewer residents, according to the 2000 Census.

Other states thought they were trading delegates for relevance. Some Pennsylvania politicians, including Gov. Ed Rendell, wanted to move the primary ahead. “I do not believe that Pennsylvanians should be left out of this [candidate selection] process, so I support advancing Pennsylvania’s primary in 2008 to Feb. 5, which will join us with our sister industrial states,” Mr. Rendell said in [12] a statement last June. Opponents, who successfully thwarted the idea, cited weather, school-board budgets and logistical headaches. But bonus delegates and the possibility that the race would remain undecided in late April didn’t figure as major factors. His state’s continued relevance “was blind luck,” [13] Mr. Rendell told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last month.

Abe Amoros, executive director of the Pennsylvania Democratic party, told me it was up to the legislature to set the primary date. “I have never heard the argument of moving it to May,” Mr. Amoros said, adding that he was unaware of the potential for more than 30 extra delegates if the state had moved the primary to May. A spokesman for Gov. Rendell didn’t immediately return my call for comment.

Article printed from The Numbers Guy: http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy

URL to article: http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/pennsylvanias-missed-opportunity-292/

URLs in this post:
[1] they usually do: http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/obama-gains-but-delegate-counters-still-disagree-275/
[2] 86: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
[3] 132: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914
[4] stripped Michigan and Florida: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120251551654655203.html
[5] call to the convention: http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/87b58105c024e2d151_bum6be6vb.pdf
[6] was held: http://www.nytimes.com/ref/elections2004/calendar.html
[7] settled for April 22: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/nomination-calendar.htm
[8] delegate-allocation document: http://www.democrats.org/page/-/pdf/20070607_DistrictAllocationChart.pdf
[9] shifted to an April caucus: http://orangepolitics.org/2004/04/caucus-primer/
[10] clinched the nomination: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB107835687627045921.html
[11] were enacted: http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_hampshire/articles/2007/01/23/compressed_2008_primary_calendar_
changes_dynamics/?page=2

[12] a statement: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07166/794357-103.stm
[13] Mr. Rendell told: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08041/856368-176.stm