Apollo Caps Private Credit Fund Withdrawals as Requests Jump – Bloomberghttps://t.co/oRMuvbKXAk

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 24, 2026

Ares Limits Withdrawals From $10.7B Private Credit Fund – FT https://t.co/IzoVfx11DY

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Mar P: 52.4 (est 51.5; prev 51.6)
– Services PMI: 51.1 (est 52.0; prev 51.7)
– Composite PMI: 51.4 (est 51.9; prev 51.9)https://t.co/hXOjWrQIv5

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Feb: 0 (est -8; prev -10)
– Business Conditions: 2 (est -8; prev -10)https://t.co/tl00AHJFBq

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in January, dropping 0.3% due to broad weakness in private projects.

More Here → https://t.co/DOI2GA86fO pic.twitter.com/gIMWQ5OjbC

— PiQ Newswire (@PiQNewswire) March 23, 2026

#FED GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN COMMENTS ON BLOOMBERG TV
*FED'S MIRAN SAYS SHOULDN'T MAKE POLICY ON SHORT-TERM HEADLINES
*MIRAN: OIL SHOCKS TYPICALLY DON'T FEED THROUGH TO CORE INFL.
*MIRAN: WAY TOO EARLY TO CONCLUDE OIL AFFECTING OTHER PRICES

*Earlier:

*CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT…

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 23, 2026

"Whether Powell is still there and Warsh is confirmed or not, it doesn't matter," @Nouriel told @BrianSozzi. "If inflation expectations get anchored, the Fed will be forced to raise rates."

For more Opening Bid: https://t.co/245SZnphyM pic.twitter.com/XhwNRzv6Sd

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) March 24, 2026

Trump on DHS Funding: I'm suggesting to the Republican party do not make any deal on anything. Don't make any deal on anything unless you include voter id and you have to be a citizen to vote. The Democrats are to blame… pic.twitter.com/UNc8FHhUyp

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 23, 2026

FT Exclusive: The EU must implement its trade deal with the US without amendments or risk losing 'favourable' access to liquefied natural gas shipments from American exporters, Donald Trump’s ambassador to the bloc has warned. https://t.co/r3MUpu9MqJ pic.twitter.com/AWhteD2GxI

— Financial Times (@FT) March 23, 2026

NEWS: WH expected to announce that KING CHARLES II will make a state visit next month. Likely to include address to joint session. https://t.co/HLCSp071Wp

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) March 24, 2026

Trump delays energy strikes, sets five days for Iran talks https://t.co/jXdKVym38S

— The Edge Singapore (@readtheedge_sg) March 24, 2026

Pentagon Officials Weigh Deployment of Airborne Troops for Iran War – NYThttps://t.co/UyWOv8jJAt

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 24, 2026

#Gulf States Edge Toward Joining Fight Against #Iran – WSJhttps://t.co/QMrO7WnK6x

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 24, 2026

#OOTT | Saudi Prince Is Said To Push Trump To Continue Iran War In Recent Calls – NYThttps://t.co/eWettkotks

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

#Pakistan steps up as go-between in Trump’s Iran crisis – FThttps://t.co/4m3tFE7vGs

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 24, 2026

Islamabad emerges as possible venue for direct talks between US, Iran – India Todayhttps://t.co/A7k0piTPrK

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 24, 2026

*MEDIATING COUNTRIES SEEK US-IRAN MEETING IN #ISLAMABAD: AXIOS
*WITKOFF, KUSHNER, VANCE COULD REPRESENT US AT TALKS: AXIOShttps://t.co/a0Ny0Gxvfy

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 23, 2026

Translation | Sources To Yedioth Ahronoth: Mojtaba Khamenei Has Agreed To Negotiate With America And Reach An Agreement – @AlArabiya_Brk https://t.co/mYPzl8yaf1

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

Iran Toughens Negotiating Stance Amid Mediation Efforts – RTRS https://t.co/UXGK85JMvY

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

QatarEnergy: Declares Force Majeure On LNG Contracts With Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China
– Assessing Impact And Repair Timeline For Damaged Facilities
– Two LNG Trains And One GTL Train Damaged At Ras Laffan

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

*#IRAN–#TURKEY GAS FLOW SAID TO STOP AFTER SOUTH PARS STRIKE – BBG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 24, 2026

Xiaomi Q4 & FY 2025 Earnings:
– Oper Profit 6.23B Yuan (est 6.24B Yuan)
– Adj Net 6.35B Yuan (est 5.78B Yuan)
– Rev 116.92B Yuan (est 116.3B Yuan)
– FY Adj Net 39.17B Yuan (est 39.12B Yuan)
– FY Net Income 41.64B Yuan (est 40.51B Yuan)
– FY Rev 457.29B Yuan (est 460.79B Yuan)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

CHINA'S XIAOMI PRESIDENT: MEMORY COST INCREASE HIGHER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED

PRICE HIKES MAY BE INEVITABLE IF WE CAN'T WITHSTAND PRESSURE FORM RISING MEMORY COSTS
(https://t.co/5KMu1ASX3k) https://t.co/k54fBybIJf pic.twitter.com/nzQIXnOAUF

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 24, 2026

Alibaba Unveils New Chip Design to Meet Surging Demand for AI
Alibaba Group’s Damo Academy unveiled the XuanTie C950, a RISC-V CPU for agentic AI and inference computing, optimized for cloud use and customizable for clients. The launch advances Alibaba’s all-stack AI ambitions,… pic.twitter.com/3OfkL2TeNx

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 24, 2026

Japan Natl CPI (Y/Y) Feb: 1.3% (est 1.3%; prev 1.5%)

– Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (Y/Y): 1.6% (est 1.7%; prev 2.0%)
– Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (Y/Y): 2.5% (est 2.4%; prev 2.6%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 23, 2026

India's private sector growth hits 3-year low as Middle East war saps demand https://t.co/ywocN8Q3mT https://t.co/ywocN8Q3mT

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 24, 2026

China Vanke’s Outlook Further Strained by GLP’s Bond Distress
China Vanke faces renewed strain as debt maturities loom, compounded by risks tied to its 21% stake in Singapore-based GLP, whose bonds fell to distressed levels after a disputed report that regulators urged insurers… pic.twitter.com/SU93EZ64jB

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 24, 2026

Anna Breman says the RBNZ is unlikely to hike the OCR directly due to the oil price. However, high it could eventually cause flow on price and wage increases, and “higher inflation in the medium term” which could prompt an earlier than expected OCR hike.https://t.co/y8p8aaywMc

— William McGimpsey (@TheZeitgeistNZ) March 24, 2026

Japan Is Said to Sound Out Market on Oil Futures Intervention

Japan’s Finance Ministry is said to have made inquiries with market participants on possible intervention in the crude oil futures market

Authorities have contacted major banks in Tokyo with oil trading operations…

— MacroGuru (@macroguru9) March 24, 2026

ADB Launches Emergency Support For Countries Hit By Iran War Fallout – FT https://t.co/NoBwRs41D0

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

BREAKING – EU and Australia sign sweeping free trade pact and agree to boost defence ties https://t.co/MGHpgOQAYB pic.twitter.com/QArLmBzKNS

— FRANCE 24 – Breaking (@BreakingF24) March 24, 2026

#ECB wage tracker continues to suggest negotiated wage pressures easing in 2026https://t.co/ydICTWYI30 pic.twitter.com/RoTVhs9o0A

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 24, 2026

French business-activity gauge hits 5-month low on Iran https://t.co/0CkPgnurmo via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/z0dXRckOJw

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 24, 2026

Euro-zone PMI falls to 10-month low in stagflation warning https://t.co/iVs6L9yxdr via @weberalexander pic.twitter.com/5bCKTcroXl

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 24, 2026

UK growth slows and inflation surges amid Iran war, PMI shows https://t.co/vfd5J0GVax via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/BTL4qF8YYD

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 24, 2026

Negative supply shock. One theme that popped up in flash PMIs released for March was a worsening of manufacturing delivery times. As it takes longer to move product out the factory door, we typically see upward pressure on prices. pic.twitter.com/jBag7D6kPk

— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) March 24, 2026

German firms see record trade barriers as global tensions rise https://t.co/ZpeoaoFtZD via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/9aDsSHXDcB

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 24, 2026

Finnish jobless rate continues to climb as the economy stays subdued https://t.co/kdTQxPFb9w via @KirsiHeikel pic.twitter.com/R0C84aG7pw

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 24, 2026

ECB must be vigilant in face of stagflation risks, Vujcic says https://t.co/TJxut9isTf via @jaskuzmanovic pic.twitter.com/HQiDucuNdh

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 24, 2026

ECB’s Lane says AI is another reason to finish the EU savings union https://t.co/JggeQpMoCN via @jrandow pic.twitter.com/hnTKZ3Hv8V

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 23, 2026

BoE’s Pill: Fog Of Uncertainty In Which We Always Operate Cannot Be An Excuse For Inactionhttps://t.co/4xqjQQkIuQ

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

#TURKEY MULLS TAPPING $135 BILLION #GOLD RESERVE FOR LIRA DEFENSE – BBG

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 24, 2026

France moves to support farmers hurt by Iran war fuel spike https://t.co/LXQyz0tCcx via @nayrazz pic.twitter.com/bjA6oRzKXS

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 24, 2026

Zelenskyy Row With MPs Jeopardises Reforms Linked To IMF, EU Loans – FThttps://t.co/t8rediIVeW

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

EU And Australia Clinch Trade And Security Pacts – FThttps://t.co/a8GnImtreG

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 24, 2026

Meloni hits a sudden hurdle on the way to her re-election campaign https://t.co/mdJVzxQab7 via @donatopmancini pic.twitter.com/e4KLdmxevj

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 24, 2026

French election runoffs show the far right still has work to do https://t.co/rA7oK6eEvn via @SamyAdghirni pic.twitter.com/px3HrxCZpE

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 23, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035672225299198155

Question for those who think Trump will TACO on Iran: what exactly does that look like? Declare victory and pull out? Then what?

Iran walks away with de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important energy chokepoint. That is not peace. That is Tehran…

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 22, 2026

OpenAI to double workforce as business push intensifies – FThttps://t.co/4ipa6OUbXY

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035611597968716055

DB: Equity positioning is now clearly underweight in our reading (-0.25sd, 30th percentile), although not yet close to the bottom of the band. pic.twitter.com/SsS3FjykYq

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 22, 2026

Retail trading activity in single stocks has plummeted–Citi pic.twitter.com/c9DixpKuiX

— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) March 23, 2026

From GS on Flows:

– Long-only investors sold $9.6B across GS’ trading floor on Thursday, the biggest wave of selling in the firm’s data history (2022).
– Thursday broke the prior record from July 2025, and marked a rare five-sigma event. pic.twitter.com/sasYSAIUL0

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 20, 2026

BREAKING: The Fear & Greed Index is down to 14.6, the lowest since November and down -50.9 points since January.

This is now well below the 30-point threshold, signaling "Extreme Fear" among investors.

Over the last 4 years, such depressed levels have only been seen in November… pic.twitter.com/FuAPegJXB7

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 21, 2026

Active asset managers are cutting equity exposure:

The NAAIM Exposure Index is down to 60 points, the lowest since the April 2025 sell-off.

This index measures average exposure to US equities reported by members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.

Since… pic.twitter.com/kxi2lj9WpL

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 21, 2026

Another nice piece from Eric. As you may know, Eric is a long-time (and well rewarded) Mag-7 bull (NVDA/AAPL/AMZN are two-thirds of his holdings), so I consider him a very good barometer for tech sentiment. In that regard, he continues to be bullish:

So what happens from here?… https://t.co/9crv4gmk6o pic.twitter.com/a7ghj0Z76q

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 22, 2026

DB: Will the equity selloff follow the historical playbook around geopolitical shocks?

The historical playbook is for a sharp selloff of about -6% to -8% but a bottom on average in 3 weeks, and a full recovery in another 3, usually long before the underlying escalation is… pic.twitter.com/Paysc7EtQJ

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 22, 2026

The S&P 500 Technology sector is now trading below last year’s tariff-selloff lows.

As a result, Tech trades at a 21% discount to its 5-year average P/E ratio and 10% below its 10-year average, making it the most discounted sector in the S&P 500. pic.twitter.com/a5KjFDE2GT

— Duality Research (@DualityResearch) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035952791789658624

Goldman: Non-consumer cyclical sectors Energy/Materials/Industrials/Financials/Real Estate) collectively were net sold for a 9th straight week by hedge funds.

The pace of selling has picked up notably since late February (i.e., into the war in Iran), having now reversed nearly… pic.twitter.com/Y5Zo2Eakgc

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 22, 2026

While the Iran conflict is sucking up all the oxygen, as @lisaabramowicz1 and @FerroTV noted this week on Surveillance, if that wasn't happening the #1 story might be private credit.

In that regard, credit default concerns in BoA's March FMS rose to the highest since April at… pic.twitter.com/FNvLvAL83B

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 21, 2026

The Private Credit Crisis Is Spreading https://t.co/O60WqJKyk8

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035255305009828261

The states where higher gas prices could shape the midterms – Politico
*Note: The map of price hikes shows highest increases are mostly in states that lean Republican https://t.co/QxjsLA1Els pic.twitter.com/nIAIs8nXrm

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035607744892276979

Goldman (Coppersmith): Several downside risks that had previously been discussed mostly in theory are now beginning to materialize. Oil has surged toward ~$100 on the Iran conflict, payrolls recently surprised to the downside, equities have corrected roughly ~5%, and early signs… pic.twitter.com/Xj42NBaByG

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035611210792518048

Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market:
“Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first time since July, while the 10-year climbed to… pic.twitter.com/jx0hsHP19w

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 20, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035954905144303864

BREAKING: US federal debt has officially risen above $39 trillion for the first time in history, now up +$2 trillion over the last 8 months.

Since the debt ceiling was lifted in early July, US debt has risen +$2.8 trillion.

Total US debt has nearly DOUBLED since 2018, with the… pic.twitter.com/ObFoDVQj0R

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035269995433738263

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035260263956414840

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035240286998220829

What just happened?

At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.

Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.

Exactly 90 minutes… pic.twitter.com/TSSvCIr5A0

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 20, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035437155632152984

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035599150461362363

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035673680521396656

Trump and Iran Hurl #War Threats With #Hormuz Crisis Building – Bloomberghttps://t.co/VXgUE56LA3 pic.twitter.com/ie1ENqXXS1

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 23, 2026

US Says #Iran Threat to #Hormuz Degraded After Facility Destroyed – Bloomberghttps://t.co/J8V6SHSCWm

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035385527650689308

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035423923047739759

#Iran Targeted Diego Garcia Base With Ballistic Missiles – WSJhttps://t.co/vHaGvgbdtb

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

12-year-old boy seriously wounded, over 3 dozen others hurt in Iran missile attack on Dimona – Times of Israelhttps://t.co/k9cHVrmPBa

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035422044410478950

Japan Leads Market Slide as Hormuz Crisis Sparks Asia-Wide Shock

Japan’s markets dropped sharply amid escalating Iran tensions and fears over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil most of it bound for Asia leaving the region highly exposed to… pic.twitter.com/TJ9O4wgC9X

— Washington Eye (@washington_EY) March 23, 2026

#Japan Bond Yields Near Multi-Decade Highs as War Fuels Inflation – Bloomberghttps://t.co/qJfcUdJsmr pic.twitter.com/lmC4aQZGq0

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 23, 2026

New Zealand bond yields rose to the highest in about a year after the country’s AA+ credit rating outlook was cut to negative by Fitch Ratings. https://t.co/5XTs99MX9a

— Bloomberg (@business) March 22, 2026

#Asia’s Busiest Earnings Week Puts Tech, Consumer Shares in Focus – Bloomberghttps://t.co/sKffTBgLFm pic.twitter.com/5bk5KhEuwC

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 23, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035949594928968159

India is the most exposed to an energy shock, with only ~25–30 days of oil cover and heavy reliance on the Middle East for crude, LNG, and fertilizers; per RBI estimates, every +10% rise in oil cuts GDP by 0.15pp and lifts CPI by 0.3pp, with the biggest risk coming from… pic.twitter.com/eHwxdiyXyP

— MacroMicro (@MacroMicroMe) March 21, 2026

#China #Housing | Shanghai has seen an uptick in sales of used homes and a mild recovery in the new home market in the past month after it eased purchase curbs, the Shanghai Securities News reported.
*The city sold 7,233 existing homes during week of March 9-15, the highest…

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 23, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035949989889814642

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035014047188369633

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035975985867235335

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035954155894776178

#China’s Premier Vows to Back Balanced #Trade as Exports Surge – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Eib73Scsas

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 22, 2026

Majority of Japanese oppose sending warships to the Middle East: Polls https://t.co/bhDlezpi2d

— The Straits Times (@straits_times) March 23, 2026

Germany is seeking to deepen defense ties with Japan, with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius proposing a new agreement to make it easier for troops from both countries to operate on each other’s territory.https://t.co/nY6wJbKEM4

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) March 22, 2026

The Oil Prices You See Don’t Tell the Market’s Real Story – Bloomberghttps://t.co/A0T4OAXmiC pic.twitter.com/wPUIGLzt9D

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035386430684385777

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035363934488629596

The ECB is ready to respond swiftly to signs that inflation expectations are surpassing 2% because of the Iran war, Joachim Nagel says https://t.co/rFFN40ION8 pic.twitter.com/Eb51dA3MrT

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 22, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035960083092312362

BOE’s messaging is under fire as its hawkish pivot fuels a bond rout https://t.co/IGL0tdJOB4 via @greg_ritchie pic.twitter.com/WJScJA6J3Z

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035369560056942605

Governments worldwide shield households from rising energy costs – Reutershttps://t.co/n94yDUE8iY

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035605009707012194

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035971588634382397

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035972636593803290

#Germany | Merz’s conservatives win key state vote despite far-right surge – Politicohttps://t.co/XVwSMPCCWI

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 23, 2026

Starmer will hold an emergency meeting with his top ministers and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey on the Iran crisis on Monday https://t.co/LskwVBZ8gS via @Joe_Mayes pic.twitter.com/oxyxdRDalL

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 23, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035672225299198155

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035268345453297754

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035377473311969708

#earnings for the week of March 23, 2026 https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY $ONDS $BYND $CHWY $CCL $LAR $VERI $PPHC $BLRX $BRZE $PAVM $PDD $KRMN $PONY $WRD $NOAH $EVTL $ACHV $ACOG $AGBK $AUTL $LOVE $CNM $BNGO $BLNK $BZAI $KALV $WYFI $CMC $AIR $CTAS $PAYX $SMTI $TMC $WPRT $HIT $LENZ… pic.twitter.com/BMwx6t8b2s

— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) March 20, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035238195026169926

🌎 #Weekahead | Shockwave of War Is Rippling Through the Global Economy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/JnyYLD3y4H pic.twitter.com/igeTQdzdN5

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 22, 2026

🌎 #WeekAhead in Focus: 23-27th March 2026 – Highlights include Japanese CPI, UK Inflation, UK Retail Sales and Flash PMIs – Newsquawkhttps://t.co/77kNvsuX9X

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

Week ahead: 23 March — Markets face a mix of #geopolitical risk and key macro data, with #energy prices, inflation signals and central bank expectations set to drive sentiment. Read more: https://t.co/vT59rzQ6nd #IGBank #Trading

— IG Bank (@IGBank) March 20, 2026

🔴Global rate hike expectations are surging.

🇦🇺 RBA +1.13pp leads, followed by 🇬🇧 BOE +0.77pp and 🇪🇺 ECB +0.74pp. 🇯🇵 BOJ +0.47pp and 🇨🇦 BOC +0.32pp rise. 🇺🇸 FED at +0.06pp, with prior 3 cuts this year fully erased.

🔗https://t.co/QY3KgVU51X pic.twitter.com/BaElvmKBLo

— MacroMicro (@MacroMicroMe) March 20, 2026

Bangkok auto show, von der Leyen in Australia, Boao Forum https://t.co/emBRd2sWJA

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) March 22, 2026

The European Commission is eyeing another deal in its push to diversify trade ties, with President Ursula von der Leyen set to visit Australia from March 23 to 25 to clinch a long-awaited agreement. #EuropeNews
➡️ https://t.co/z2FiCgsVcm pic.twitter.com/XbXf82JwN7

— euronews (@euronews) March 18, 2026

🇪🇺 The #weekahead 23 – 29 March 2026 – European Parliamenthttps://t.co/0Jp4dgXQZP

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035383503156650249

🇪🇺 #Europe: Key #Elections to watch ⬇️

🗳 Sunday

🇫🇷 Second round of France’s municipal elections

🇩🇪 Rhineland-Palatinate votes in a key regional election (home to BASF & a major auto sector)

🇸🇮 Slovenia holds parliamentary elections

📅 Through next week

🇮🇹 Italy’s…

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 22, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035435922255229199

🇩🇪 #Germany's Merz faces second state election test on Sunday – Reutershttps://t.co/uiVhcGSnPi

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 22, 2026

🇮🇹 #Weekahead | Meloni Faces Major Test as #Italy Holds Referendum on Justice – Bloomberghttps://t.co/zBJ258BC8V

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 22, 2026

🇸🇮 Election in #Slovenia Will Test Europe’s Political Mood – NYThttps://t.co/ilX6p82gH1

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 22, 2026

Denmark to elect new parliament in vote clouded by Trump https://t.co/OyspVd5Ty1 https://t.co/OyspVd5Ty1

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 20, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035374923556819376

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump Gives Iran 48 Hours on Hormuz, Threatens Power Plant – Bloomberghttps://t.co/TxkrM3ZVmc

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 22, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035268345453297754

🌎 Charting the Global Economy: Interest-Rate Hikes May Be Coming – Bloomberghttps://t.co/gg0WnukyIz pic.twitter.com/dC8FLP9vib

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

#Midterms (Update)
Democrats are heavily favored to win the House
The Senate is effectively a toss-up
The probability of a full Democratic sweep is approaching 50%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms – Polymarkethttps://t.co/pcCs7BcjCN pic.twitter.com/FOG9IgSZ9o

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

Will #Trump be impeached? – Kalshi https://t.co/h36YX1hhCE

*Before Jan 1, 2028: 68% pic.twitter.com/0eWEMwKO5f

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

The states where higher gas prices could shape the midterms – Politico
*Note: The map of price hikes shows highest increases are mostly in states that lean Republican https://t.co/QxjsLA1Els pic.twitter.com/nIAIs8nXrm

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035250457799532892

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2035256134362165522

#Midterms (Update)
Democrats are heavily favored to win the House
The Senate is effectively a toss-up
The probability of a full Democratic sweep is approaching 50%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms – Polymarkethttps://t.co/pcCs7BcjCN pic.twitter.com/FOG9IgSZ9o

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

Will #Trump be impeached? – Kalshi https://t.co/h36YX1hhCE

*Before Jan 1, 2028: 68% pic.twitter.com/0eWEMwKO5f

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 21, 2026

What just happened?

At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.

Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.

Exactly 90 minutes… pic.twitter.com/TSSvCIr5A0

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 20, 2026

Both the Indeed and LinkUp measures of US job openings have dropped by just over 1% from their end-Feb levels. Possibly a sign that the Iran war is already instilling a more cautious approach to hiring in some sectors. pic.twitter.com/4jwV49FxFn

— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) March 19, 2026

From GS on Flows:

– Long-only investors sold $9.6B across GS’ trading floor on Thursday, the biggest wave of selling in the firm’s data history (2022).
– Thursday broke the prior record from July 2025, and marked a rare five-sigma event. pic.twitter.com/sasYSAIUL0

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 20, 2026

Blackout Period for Corporate Buybacks Imminent

From GS via BBG:
– Blackout period starts today with ~45% of S&P 500 firms expected to halt repurchases
– “We expect blackout to run through the end of April”
– Volumes last week were 1.5x the 2025 average

*What’s the net impact? pic.twitter.com/xN2y4dXjHx

— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034626194314871233

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034897459927818633

Interviews with investors and strategists across the globe suggest the Iran war has led AI tools to become more entrenched in workflows, even as several flagged pitfalls including sloppy prompts and inaccurate results https://t.co/rXY63IIyZq

— Bloomberg (@business) March 19, 2026

BofA’s Hartnett Says Consumer Stocks Best Bet as S&P 500 Wavershttps://t.co/cTsQDY5w3R

— Christine Thomas (@ChristiThomasA) March 19, 2026

MarketWatch: A look at past shocks from international conflicts since 1939 shows the S&P 500 may be approaching a crucial moment, according to a team at Deutsche Bank Research.

Their work shows S&P 500 drawdowns lasting only 15 trading days on average, after the start of past… pic.twitter.com/BVfPKA4jQk

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034904661832978609

Applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since January, adding to evidence of limited layoffs. https://t.co/C5Ut6Jkd7G

— Bloomberg (@business) March 19, 2026

Powell Says He’ll Stay On if Successor Isn’t Confirmed in Time

Fed Chair signals willingness to remain as interim leader, setting up potential clash with Trump over future of the central bank #WashingtonEye pic.twitter.com/1ECBNCO9kb

— Washington Eye (@washington_EY) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/jack_hoogland/status/2034874894840693091

#WolffBites: Fed + Trump cut bank regulations to up bank profits by $ billions. Despite war and declining jobs, rising inflation risks, US gov't never stops serving big capitalists.https://t.co/PC79hqrkYy

— Richard D. Wolff (@profwolff) March 19, 2026

Congress must ‘adequately’ fund defense, Johnson says, amid talk of $200 billion war request https://t.co/GiP1A5trBk via @politico

— C.W. (@wehr_chuck) March 19, 2026

Scoop: Anthropic meets with House Homeland Security behind closed doors https://t.co/IFUqLWW5Lj

— Axios (@axios) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/jack_hoogland/status/2034876636059861373

Trump officials rule out oil export ban in meeting with industry execs https://t.co/hcSWaUDJbe

— POLITICO (@politico) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034931711939613020

Netanyahu Signals Swift End to Iran Conflict, Cites Air and Ground Operations
Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles after 20 days of war. He noted remaining missiles are few, pledged to target Iranian leaders, and… pic.twitter.com/dVhcqd3n07

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 20, 2026

Trump says US is not putting troops in Middle East region https://t.co/SuTIDoS1LL

— The Straits Times (@straits_times) March 19, 2026

‘Armageddon scenario’ for gas markets as Qatar hit by missileshttps://t.co/F261M5PB4w

— ECIU (@ECIU_UK) March 19, 2026

#OOTT | Kuwait Suspends Operations At Two Refineries After Attacks – WSJhttps://t.co/IEr7r15pPO

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2026

UNITREE ROBOTICS REPORTS 2025 REVENUE OF 1.708 BILLION YUAN, UP 335.36% Y/Y #CHINA #ROBOTICS #UNITREE @UnitreeRobotics
(https://t.co/eXjq2zH4EA) pic.twitter.com/3xKLjXRG5u

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 20, 2026

China's Alibaba targets $100B in AI and cloud revenue over 5 years @WashTimes https://t.co/WDnNgvu0u7

— Washington Times Local (@WashTimesLocal) March 19, 2026

Asia buys most US oil in years as Iran war blocks Mideast flowshttps://t.co/5dc0W19y4r

— Economic Times (@EconomicTimes) March 20, 2026

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2034797572343439531

CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY, ON US POTENTIALLY LIFTING SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL: ENERGY SECURTIY IS OF HIGH IMPORTANCE TO GLOBAL ECONOMY

ALL SIDES HAVE RESPONSIBILITY TO ENSURE STABLE, UNIMPEDED SUPPLY
(https://t.co/dMNEPz4ERJ) pic.twitter.com/TBTuLkCq7v

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 20, 2026

Can China broker peace for Iran again? 2023 was different, analysts say https://t.co/GpXzUcTQND

— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) March 20, 2026

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy: US Sends Signals About Willingness To Restart Talks
– Ukrainian Negotiators To Have Talks In US On Saturday

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2026

Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market https://t.co/k9oQ2HyNPt

— Bloomberg (@business) March 19, 2026

Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL pic.twitter.com/boVD8nEW6E

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 20, 2026

France Wages (Q/Q) Q4 F: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2026

Eurozone Trade Balance SA (EUR) Jan: 12.1B (prev 11.6B)
– Trade Balance NSA (EUR): -1.9BB (prev 12.6B)https://t.co/xexfGAbZL7

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2026

ECB's Villeroy: ECB May Update Scenarios More Often Than Forecasts
– ECB Ready To Update Scenarios As Often As Necessary
– Can't Decide Medium-Term Policy On Daily Fluctuations
– ECB Will Not Be Inactive Or Overreact

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2026

ECB’s Escirva: Starting Point For ECB More Balanced Than In 2022
– Situation Is Very Uncertain And Highly Volatile

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 20, 2026

The ECB will need to consider hiking rates as soon as next month if price pressures build further due to the Iran war, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel https://t.co/hwaLEOYKPm

— Bloomberg (@business) March 20, 2026

Economists pivot to see ECB hikes in 2027 while diverging on timing of the first move https://t.co/5BH7p6lZHd pic.twitter.com/XrI5aMzrkJ

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 20, 2026

VILLEROY: #ECB MAY UPDATE SCENARIOS MORE OFTEN THAN FCASTS – BBGhttps://t.co/fIvL1gCAbs

— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) March 20, 2026

Traders fully price 3 quarter-point ECB rate hikes this year https://t.co/yu5h5CnSqc via @highisland pic.twitter.com/tM7mlxXiic

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 20, 2026

Bank of England forced into U-turn by Iran war’s ‘Trumpflation’ https://t.co/rNRthMqeL9 via @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/WuL82jP3TU

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 20, 2026

The Bank of Russia lowers borrowing costs for the seventh straight time, seeking to support a weakening economy https://t.co/Xz1SwTeMyJ

— Bloomberg (@business) March 20, 2026

Public sector borrowing was £14.3 billion in February 2026, £2.2 billion more than in February 2025 and the second highest February borrowing since monthly records began in 1993, behind that of 2021.

Read the article https://t.co/kWncONP8Bg pic.twitter.com/rlS9gnKzB8

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) March 20, 2026

Commenting on today’s public sector finances figures for February 2026, ONS senior statistician Tom Davies said pic.twitter.com/0eNoTduC6n

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) March 20, 2026

The UK’s city minister will visit European capitals next week in a push to deepen ties with the European Union on financial services as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves seeks to spur economic growth domestically https://t.co/SAreGex9h1

— Bloomberg (@business) March 19, 2026

WTO warns European exports will shrink if energy prices stay high https://t.co/tS95MTVjBF

— FT Economics (@fteconomics) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033124186722381869

Private Credit Panic Spreads As Consumer Loan Fund Gates Investors, JPMorgan Pulls Deal, Apollo Sees 20 Cent Recoveries https://t.co/skOZhBsVNq

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2026

Overseas holdings of US Treasuries rose in January, a month that saw a spike in concern over European demand for American assets in light of President Donald Trump’s threats over Greenland https://t.co/toIjXz616x

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

Walmart wins patents to give algorithms more sway over prices https://t.co/8zXIX7Sr36

— Financial Times (@FT) March 18, 2026

MICRON FLAGS OVER $25B IN CAPEX AS AI-DRIVEN MEMORY DEMAND SURGES, OVERSHADOWING STRONG SALES OUTLOOK. || SHARES DROP DESPITE BULLISH FORECAST, AS HEAVY SPENDING TO MEET AI CHIP DEMAND RAISES INVESTOR CONCERNS.

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 18, 2026

As has been the case for the past few months, the March BofA Fund Manager Survey showed that investors think that US companies are spending too much money on capex.

As we saw with Meta in 2022, when investors start punishing the stocks of companies that they think are… pic.twitter.com/lV6geQrivN

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) March 18, 2026

US wholesale inflation unexpectedly accelerated in February from a month earlier, reflecting higher costs for goods and services https://t.co/7u8sHZ65EQ

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

PPI summary:

More than half the February PPI rise is due to a 0.5% rise in the index for final demand services.

20% of the February rise in the index for final demand services is attributable to a 5.7% jump in prices for traveler accommodation services

20% of the February… https://t.co/hhUvSKh50b pic.twitter.com/4sQXSN8ZQ5

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2026

We're tracking a 0.43% rise in the core PCE deflator in February with both PPI and CPI now in hand. The main culprit for the large rise is CPI computer software prices which will add 8bp alone (it has a much bigger weight in the deflator than in the CPI). pic.twitter.com/XkMa8FSrXa

— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) March 18, 2026

Red hot. Not that my estimate is perfect as the figure shows, but February will market three consecutive months of poor core PCE inflation. Over this three month period, core PCE is running above 4% SAAR. FWIW, SEP sees core inflation slowing to 2.5% in 2026. Good luck. pic.twitter.com/C2M8GDgUey

— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) March 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034535125652791321

https://twitter.com/LizThomasStrat/status/2033970069307269606

US factory orders barely rise in January https://t.co/SkjPja8PDn https://t.co/SkjPja8PDn

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034527671816737143

US Mortgage Rates Hit Highest This Year, Slowing Refinancing https://t.co/64qdAtkoXA

— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) March 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034501745980674202

Here's what changed in the new Fed statement https://t.co/1EsbFL28Hr

— CNBC (@CNBC) March 18, 2026

2027 dots are even nuttier:
1 expects a rate hike
3 expect no change
4 expect 1 rate cut
6 expect 2 rate cuts
3 expect 3 rate cuts
1 expects 4 rate cuts
1 expects 5 rate cuts https://t.co/jUtJjJNkiI pic.twitter.com/vDsMjpd4GI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2026

Powell says he has 'no intention' of leaving the Fed until DOJ probe concludes https://t.co/szzkziq9xl

— POLITICO (@politico) March 18, 2026

The Bank of Canada’s rate decision signals that it’s worried about economic growth — and is choosing to look past a potential inflation spike, for now. Read more in the Canada Daily newsletter. https://t.co/x5IF0E5Zv2

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

Brazil Cuts Rate To 14.75% In Careful Move As War Blurs Outlook – BBGhttps://t.co/5WTbta2PeN

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

Exclusive: The Pentagon asked the White House to approve a more than $200 billion request to Congress to fund the war in Iran, according to an administration official, a new ask that will likely run into resistance from lawmakers opposed to the conflict.https://t.co/tcKF2ijLPi

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) March 18, 2026

The number of companies suing for tariff refunds has spiked recently, in a sign importers aren’t confident in the Trump administration’s progress after the policies were struck down https://t.co/z8F118I9eY

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

US fuel makers are boosting purchases of crude from Venezuela to the highest in more than a year, making good on the Trump administration’s goal of taking more crude from the country as the Iran war reshuffles global oil flows. https://t.co/lMBWdsrdIw

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

US intelligence agencies soften outlook on China’s plans for Taiwan https://t.co/6tW0ra1N3U

— The Edge Singapore (@readtheedge_sg) March 19, 2026

Two shipments of Russian oil and gas head to Cuba in defiance of US https://t.co/bZmGbAujpt

— Financial Times (@FT) March 18, 2026

Trump waives US shipping law for oil and gas in bid to lower prices#TMRWorldhttps://t.co/VYxXkRXHIn

— The Malaysian Reserve (@TMReserve) March 19, 2026

US poised to waive summer gasoline regulations to ease prices, sources say https://t.co/BQJqr5m036 https://t.co/BQJqr5m036

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 19, 2026

#OOTT | US Explored Linking Strait Of Hormuz Naval Escorts To Govt Insurance – FThttps://t.co/txnNIi2sxX

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/2034395623609237513

#OOTT | Trump Wants No More Energy Strikes, But Supported Attack On South Pars – WSJhttps://t.co/GbEOJY44Au

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/2034448433751486629

Qatar LNG Operations Disrupted After Attacks Linked to South Pars Incident: QatarEnergy has evacuated its Ras Laffan LNG terminal after confirmed missile strikes around the facility. https://t.co/Unmskcquxz pic.twitter.com/rnqTyJgpBQ

— Natural Gas Intel (@NGInews) March 18, 2026

Statement | Qatar Condemns, Denounces Blatant Iranian Attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City

Doha | March 18, 2026

The State of Qatar expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Iranian attack targeting Ras Laffan Industrial City, which caused fires… pic.twitter.com/OfQlbrU9jv

— Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Qatar (@MofaQatar_EN) March 18, 2026

Qatari Foreign Ministry: Qatar Reserves Its Right To Take All Necessary Measures To Protect Its Sovereignty And Security In Accordance With International Law https://t.co/BYqkD78Hu7

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

President Trump threatens to “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field” if Iran “unwisely” decides to attack Qatar (which it did, three times tonight). Trump added that he “knew nothing” about Israel’s intention to strike South Pars Field, saying Israel will not… pic.twitter.com/8lgcMyNSfE

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034542603182481817

Israel says it has killed Iran's intelligence minister in overnight strike https://t.co/foCehvYOXC

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) March 18, 2026

Flightradar24 Gulf airlines recovery index, 18 March. Strong recovery by Emirates following the attack on the fuel facility near Dubai airport earlier this week. pic.twitter.com/kOSOUDRQW7

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/2030817253768184183

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034503696327835860

China’s interest rate markets are indicating reduced expectations for further easing of funding conditions and monetary policy, reflecting renewed economic optimism and lingering concerns about elevated oil prices https://t.co/yTWWk7wwRQ

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

Japan’s equity investors will closely watch a meeting between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Washington on Thursday for possible agreements on economic and military cooperation https://t.co/t3qABHv83k

— Bloomberg (@business) March 19, 2026

Top AI Stories of PAST 24 Hours – @MKTNews_Global
Cloud & AI Products
– JD Cloud offers bigger discounts on multiple products, average cut over 16%.
– Alibaba Cloud raises AI compute and storage prices by up to 34%.
– Baidu AI Cloud announces price adjustments for AI compute,… pic.twitter.com/7UbMiAMoKa

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 19, 2026

Japan Core Machine Orders (M/M) Jan: -5.5% (est –9.6%; prev 19.1%)

– Core Machine Orders (Y/Y): 13.7% (est 9.0%; prev 16.8%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

New Zealand GDP (Y/Y) Q4: 1.3% (est 1.7%; prev 1.3%; prevR 1.1%)

– GDP SA (Q/Q): 0.2% (est 0.5%; prev 1.1%; prevR 0.9%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

Australian unemployment stayed relatively low in February as job gains continued, reinforcing the Reserve Bank’s view that the economy remains resilient enough to withstand tighter monetary policy https://t.co/7r69jEice6

— Bloomberg (@business) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2034519383914201219

1/5

Where Is the Demand Destruction?

tl:dr – Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel.

This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100.

(% gain since the war) pic.twitter.com/A6Rk6TjszH

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 18, 2026

3/5

This represents a sudden removal of roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil supply.

While Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu is expected to ramp up from 2M bpd to its max capacity of 7M bpd soon, it cannot replace the ~21M bpd that typically flow through the Strait. pic.twitter.com/Q6WtOpdMvL

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 18, 2026

5/5

While the U.S. (green) and Europe are struggling with $100 Brent (cyan), the Middle Eastern “sour” blends that power Asia have decoupled from Western benchmarks (blue, red, and orange).

Because Asian refineries are chemically tuned to these specific grades, they are forced…

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034502768254160911

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2034470418481041828

Traders Eye Yen’s 160 Level, BoJ Hawkish Overtures, Analysts Say – BBGhttps://t.co/XJQvYQKENS

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2026

Japan’s FinMin Says Ready To Take Action On Forex At Any Time – BBGhttps://t.co/iCvWyt7OkD

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2026

India ramped up the use of a key tool in defending the rupee to record levels, sources say, as it seeks to support the currency which is at an all-time low against the dollar https://t.co/d0SGeYjm9k

— Bloomberg (@business) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034535043477991682

China set to keep rates steady as Mideast war clouds inflation outlook https://t.co/L6gielFcSi

— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034544166424687067

Sanae Takaichi's visit to Washington was meant to be about China. Instead, writes @GearoidReidy, it's a test of what Japan is willing to give amid the Iran war (via @opinion) https://t.co/qO7kMvVCxd

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

Xi can absorb a short delay in his meeting with Trump, writes @karishmajourno. A longer postponement would suggest the relationship is drifting (via @opinion) https://t.co/jtcaumNIq4

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

Oil jumps as major energy assets targeted in Mideast conflict#TMRWorld https://t.co/I9kdv0RUHO

— The Malaysian Reserve (@TMReserve) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034542926789775706

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034525899190595897

UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mth Jan: 5.2% (est 5.3%; prev 5.2%)
– Employment Change (3M/3M): 84K (est -12K; prev 52K)
– Average Weekly Earnings 3M (Y/Y): 3.9% (est 3.9%; prev 4.2%)
– Weekly Earnings Ex Bonus 3M (Y/Y): 3.8% (est 4.0%; prev 4.2%)
– Private Earnings Ex Bonus 3M (Y/Y):…

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2026

UK jobs market fares better than expected ahead of BOE meeting https://t.co/Fh5TgfZlhi via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/qNOn56J5sm

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 19, 2026

Switzerland Exports Real (M/M) Feb: -0.3% (prev 3.6%; prevR 7.2%)
– Imports Real (M/M): -5.1% (prev 1.0%; prevR 2.3%)
– Swiss Watch Exports (Y/Y): 9.2% (prev -3.6%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 19, 2026

*Todays Scheduled CB Speakers*

ALL TIMES GMT

SNB Rate Decision 8.30am
SNB Press Conf 9am

Riksbank Rate Decision 8.30am

BoE Rate Decision 12pm

ECB Rate Decision 1.15pm
ECB Press Conf 1.45pm

— Trading Floor Audio (@TradeFloorAudio) March 19, 2026

ECB to hold as it weighs the Iran war’s inflation threat https://t.co/noMN7fPX60 via @jrandow pic.twitter.com/InTBhKNCel

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 19, 2026

ECB to talk tough as Iran war raises inflation fears https://t.co/aOR1Wq9Oli https://t.co/aOR1Wq9Oli

— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 18, 2026

Iran war puts the Bank of England in a holding pattern https://t.co/1ot3NsUnMd via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/WqXUF4KuxY

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034536470673825912

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034536080087605292

‘EU Inc.’ plan seeks to spur startups to rival the US and China https://t.co/8gI6sQfXfL via @SamuelStolton pic.twitter.com/VCycSp93GE

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034545491094978621

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is deploying a second Patriot missile-defense system to Turkey's Incirlik Air Base to bolster the alliance's air defenses against threats from Iran.https://t.co/AYZhX1KHOv

— ConflictLive (@conflict_live) March 18, 2026

UK to tighten steel import quotas, hike tariffs to shield domestic industryhttps://t.co/OTE8XHONjy

— Economic Times (@EconomicTimes) March 19, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033124186722381869

Systematic funds are aggressively selling global equities:

Systematic strategies, which include CTAs, risk parity, and volatility-control funds, have sold -$80 billion in global equities over the last month, according to Goldman Sachs.

Over the last week, this was particularly… pic.twitter.com/QEI1raEfwL

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 17, 2026

Chicago soybean futures slumped more than 2% on Monday — dropping below $12 a bushel — in the face of a potential delay of US trade talks with China, the world’s top buyer of the oilseed https://t.co/xDuXxdjbGg

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

What information can we tease out of the options regarding US/Iran?
1) 25% rapid resolution (<4wks)
2) 45% 4-12wk resolution
3) 20% Prolonged (3-6m)
4) 10% Infrastructure destruction
AND: $70 oil into year-end pic.twitter.com/cV2vq414FB

— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) March 15, 2026

A 'significant' private credit shakeout on par with Covid losses is coming, predicts Morgan Stanley https://t.co/t919Z6MmCr

— CNBC (@CNBC) March 17, 2026

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, addressing crowds at the company’s biggest annual event, unveiled a variety of new products while predicting that the flagship AI processors would help generate $1 trillion in sales through 2027. @EdLudlow has the details https://t.co/rDpHeF1xIb pic.twitter.com/V00rtamegy

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) March 17, 2026

Nvidia gets Beijing's nod for H200 chip sales, adapts Groq chip for China, sources say https://t.co/TvwAntU0AW https://t.co/TvwAntU0AW

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 18, 2026

Exclusive: Amazon CEO sees AI doubling prior AWS sales projections to $600 billion by 2036 https://t.co/xBNFjdyPV9 https://t.co/xBNFjdyPV9

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 17, 2026

Qualcomm. the largest maker of smartphone processors, plans to buy back another $20 billion worth of shares and is raising its quarterly cash dividend. https://t.co/NLiQIdVpAv

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034137132143427663

US airlines reported stronger‑than‑expected travel demand heading into the spring, supporting higher fares and revenue growth, but rising jet fuel costs from the Iran war are increasing operating expenses https://t.co/pl7MkdsFzl pic.twitter.com/WoR8IqqM6N

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 17, 2026

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/2033940006998262129

Pending sales of US existing homes unexpectedly rose in February for the first time in three months as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates and slower price growth https://t.co/su7SpX7ojH

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034141225146622434

Investors will be looking to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week for insight on how the US central bank is weighing a range of risks to the economy amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran https://t.co/ohGUOaCfrb

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to pursue price stability and full employment. A sharp increase in oil prices and a weaker job market risk putting those goals into conflict https://t.co/CGW3cbRlLA

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

"Hormuz Hold'em": FOMC Preview – The Fed's Playbook Is Hold or Cut, Not Hike https://t.co/vjWLCqxfKK

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2026

The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut. A month ago, no one would have believed this. pic.twitter.com/a9K0cTXJS1

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 17, 2026

Democrats sent the White House another counteroffer for funding the Department of Homeland Security late Monday night, but it didn’t change much, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said Tuesday. https://t.co/tussLa1Vrh

— Bloomberg Government (@BGOV) March 17, 2026

Trump expects Xi summit in ‘five or six weeks’ as Iran war rages https://t.co/8P27ttInik

— The Straits Times (@straits_times) March 18, 2026

#OOTT | US To Ease Venezuela Sanctions To Unlock More Oil Amid Iran War – BBG https://t.co/qWBehx1r65

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 17, 2026

Iran confirmed the killing of Ali Larijani in an Israeli strike near Tehran, alongside Gholam Reza Soleimani. The deaths mark a major escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict following Ali Khamenei’s reported killing.

Read here: https://t.co/yKPRBGvxzD#AliLarijani #Iran #IranWar… pic.twitter.com/A88TLbh8Ub

— DNA (@dna) March 18, 2026

Pentagon plans to mass produce attack drone used in Iran war https://t.co/F7dCDqqaIQ

— The Straits Times (@straits_times) March 17, 2026

‘Never heard him so angry’: Trump is furious that global allies aren’t pitching in in Iran https://t.co/nG0hgvppoG via @politico

— Konstantinos Bitsios (@kbitsios) March 18, 2026

US President Trump: We No Longer "Need," Or Desire, NATO Countries' Assistance – TSLhttps://t.co/Z9AgWF8970

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 17, 2026

Iran Could Escalate Attacks On The Gulf’s Energy Sector – FThttps://t.co/SQ11anJCmy

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/JoumannaTV/status/2033937241802735921

Iran tightens internet curbs on eve of festival tied to protests https://t.co/IUW4l4jv1L

— The Straits Times (@straits_times) March 17, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is now dominating global market coverage:

The number of stories mentioning "Hormuz" on the Bloomberg terminal is up to a record 62,010 this month.

This marks a +4,084% increase since the end of February.

This also exceeds stories mentioning "ChatGPT" by… pic.twitter.com/8CzYwCOc3O

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 17, 2026

Chinese companies are boosting hedges through foreign‑exchange derivatives, pushing outstanding forward contracts to record levels, as the yuan’s surge threatens to erode exporters’ overseas earnings https://t.co/oZr2LQgl29

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

MiniMax Unveils Self-Evolving Agent Model M2.7
MiniMax Group Inc. unveiled its next-gen Agent model M2.7 on March 18, featuring a “self-evolving” system. Using the Agent Harness, it handles 30%-50% of R&D tasks and boosts internal evaluation performance by about 30%.#CHINA #AI… https://t.co/btsn0Kh91t pic.twitter.com/rhxWMTJOXE

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 18, 2026

Alibaba is raising prices for its AI computing and storage products by as much as 34%, responding to fast-growing demand and rising infrastructure costs https://t.co/pZHVYjEyIN

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

Baidu joins China's OpenClaw frenzy with new AI agents https://t.co/aVE4GgDXp1 https://t.co/aVE4GgDXp1

— Reuters Tech News (@ReutersTech) March 17, 2026

Samsung is considering a shift toward multi-year contracts for memory chips, a much longer timeframe than is typical that may help stabilize supply and ease concerns about a shortage of the essential components https://t.co/zEMRfCTr5j

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034143309430485043

Japan manufacturers' mood hits 4-year high, Middle East risks weigh outlook: Reuters poll https://t.co/repvQfqga1

— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) March 18, 2026

Japan Exports Beat, 4.2% Growth In Feb, But China, US Demand Slumps – CNBChttps://t.co/yyD4h3qgMC

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

Japan automakers cut output on Iran conflict, fear parts supply disruptions https://t.co/aJ2IHHsmhX

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) March 17, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034144506744873463

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2034145645942976796

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged as soaring oil prices are set to complicate efforts for the central bank to reach its 2% stable inflation target https://t.co/Q6qSJ5QUqq

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2034164655988560321

Japan’s Takaichi Visits Trump As Hormuz Warship Standoff Simmers – BBGhttps://t.co/mQOBRBPAGF

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2034106478639124836

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2034148527165870257

A channeling of US resources into the conflict ravaging the Middle East could cause an imbalance in the current security environment surrounding Japan, according to Japan’s former Defense Minister Gen Nakatani https://t.co/YwPEyfaxN8

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

Oil prices fall over $2 as Iraqi and Kurdish authorities agree to export deal https://t.co/snsdEv33TF https://t.co/snsdEv33TF

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 18, 2026

The oil market has fragmented: Oil is now trading for $150/bbl in Asia (except the occasional sanctioned Iranian tanker) where demand destruction has started. China and India most pressured.

Meanwhile it is still $100 in the US https://t.co/QweAyzEN0a pic.twitter.com/YyvgAMdMwl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2026

German investor outlook drops as the war in Iran threatens the recovery https://t.co/SeqBx9r9se pic.twitter.com/3jIw6sgBGk

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 17, 2026

EU moves to delay increase in bank capital requirements https://t.co/1My0gwOmfr

— Financial Times (@FT) March 17, 2026

SNB Is About To Reveal Its Resolve On Franc Strength – BBGhttps://t.co/C6P7K8wYeM

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

Germany’s government has redirected funds originally for infrastructure into covering budget gaps, according to new reports.

This move is raising fresh doubts about Berlin’s ability to deliver on its long-promised investment drive.https://t.co/tkGYJhIcRT

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) March 17, 2026

The future of the EU’s flagship carbon market is set to become a sticking point in a debate among member states on how to reduce energy prices https://t.co/5vGkvuCYvA

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

Reeves floats a plan to give UK regions say over income tax funds https://t.co/453UtoXDjg via @Joe_Mayes @PhilAldrick pic.twitter.com/1am55Hy8zL

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 17, 2026

The European Union will restart ratification of its trade deal with the US, setting up the long-delayed agreement for final approval https://t.co/kpttl7qUM0

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

*RUSSIA SHARING SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE TECH WITH IRAN: WSJ

*RUSSIA EXPANDING HELP TO KEEP IRAN IN FIGHT: WSJ

*WSJ CITES TOP PENTAGON OFFICIAL ON DRONES USED TO STRIKE IRAN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2026

The EU's announcement that Ukraine has accepted its offer to help repair the Druzhba oil pipeline gives Viktor Orbán a chance to end his showdown with Brussels over a loan to Kyiv, according to two EU officials. https://t.co/pfES11kicO

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) March 17, 2026

Suspicions Grow That China Is Exploiting FOI Laws To Gather UK Security Data – FThttps://t.co/sJFh96zRJt

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033124186722381869

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2033899479074795875

Markets May Be Underpricing Iran Risks, Bank of America Warns https://t.co/s7uUMPp4gi | @yahoofinance pic.twitter.com/LsoXhy8YWg

— Jim Perry (@mi_jim) March 17, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033786775764677079

SEC is preparing a proposal that would allow publicly listed companies to report earnings only twice a year instead of the current quarterly system https://t.co/XRbFN4JDkC via @WSJ

— Torrenzano (@RichTorrenzano) March 17, 2026

US industrial production rose in January by the most in nearly a year, fueled by healthy increases in utility and manufacturing output https://t.co/qntvwnA51j

— Bloomberg (@business) February 18, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033813707554173253

US ADP Weekly Employment Change Wk/ Feb-28th: 9.000K (prev 15.500K)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 17, 2026

US New York Fed Services Business Activity Mar: -22.6 (est -20.0; Prev -25.7)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 17, 2026

US Pending Home Sales (M/M) Feb: 1.8% (est -0.6%; prev -0.8%; prevR -1.0%)
– Pending Home Sales NSA (Y/Y): -0.6% (est -4.5%; prev -1.2%; prevR -1.4%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 17, 2026

Homebuilder sentiment remains terrible again for Mar, rising just 1 point from a depressed level as sales pick up marginally at the expense of more than 1/3 of builders having to cut prices and nearly 2/3 having to offer sales incentives amid extremely low foot traffic of buyers: pic.twitter.com/QiFhP16pub

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) March 16, 2026

The Fed's plan to loosen bank capital rules, which could free up as much as $200 billion, poses a big risk if it all hits the economy at once, argues @PaulJDavies (via @opinion) https://t.co/cbvg2sUdO4

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is looking to reduce some Asia private equity exposure by selling fund stakes, according to people familiar with the matter. https://t.co/grG3b1IvwK

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

President Trump said he requested China delay a summit with President Xi for about a month, saying it was important for him to remain in Washington to oversee the Iran war https://t.co/4eHfzVL8b4 pic.twitter.com/e4Kvd6LzCW

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

The US and China are considering a new mechanism that could potentially oversee economic ties and manage bilateral concerns between the two geoeconomic competitors. https://t.co/M2nrcKPjKb

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

JUST IN – Trump: "We attacked Kharg Island and destroyed everything except for the area where the oil is — I call it the pipes." pic.twitter.com/B2WSDX2AWd

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) March 16, 2026

Trump threatened further strikes on Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub and urged allies to send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran vowed to step up its response and the war showed no sign of coming to an end https://t.co/XYJO7zAXXx

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 15, 2026

Trump upset as US partners reject call for Hormuz warship escorts https://t.co/UsCua0q3hI via @NikkeiAsia

— Nino Brodin (@Orgetorix) March 17, 2026

US President Trump: We No Longer "Need," Or Desire, NATO Countries' Assistance – TSLhttps://t.co/Z9AgWF8970

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 17, 2026

Alibaba Launches Wukong and Token Hub, Powering Next-Gen AI for Enterprises
At the 2026 AI DingTalk 2.0 launch, DingTalk CEO Chen Hang introduced Wukong, an AI-native workplace platform for PC and mobile that can execute tasks 24/7 via simple commands.
On March 16, Alibaba formed… pic.twitter.com/JZIKT9nWwB

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) March 17, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033790161444634757

Singapore’s Feb key exports growth slows to 4% as electronics surge eases and non-electronics slide https://t.co/1rvLw6Ivzx

— The Business Times (@BusinessTimes) March 17, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033791232535666943

Bank of Japan chief stresses need to hit 2% inflation backed by wage gains https://t.co/oRAecussW0

— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) March 17, 2026

Japan’s finance minister said recent currency moves are not in line with fundamentals, reiterating warnings of possible action by authorities to counter the moves https://t.co/CFpn5KW5IB

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

A policy hold by the Bank of Japan this week is a foregone conclusion for most economists, but the deliberations will still be highly significant as authorities start to mull whether surging oil prices might warrant preemptive action https://t.co/6ISoQ3V6Zc

— Bloomberg (@business) March 17, 2026

Trade representatives from the US and South Korea are set to meet in Washington to discuss potential investments in American energy projects and other ventures https://t.co/LqvWfHXyzm

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2033810142870049231

North Korea holds Supreme People's Assembly election, KCNA reports https://t.co/GZFx72qSiy https://t.co/GZFx72qSiy

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 16, 2026

BIS warns of economic danger if Iran conflict proves enduring https://t.co/r1HGlWwCL6

— The Edge Singapore (@readtheedge_sg) March 16, 2026

Iran Crisis Puts Bank Of England’s New Monetary Model To The Test – FThttps://t.co/lh5wyeuC3v

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 17, 2026

EU savings union can be ready this year, Ireland’s Harris says https://t.co/ncveXVZHvW via @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ pic.twitter.com/9gb3pbnbBC

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 16, 2026

Germany’s government has redirected funds originally for infrastructure into covering budget gaps, according to new reports.

This move is raising fresh doubts about Berlin’s ability to deliver on its long-promised investment drive.https://t.co/tkGYJhIcRT

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) March 17, 2026

EU Lawmakers Agree To Proceed With Vote On US Trade Deal Legislation After Delays – RTRS Source

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 17, 2026

EU Says It’s Nearing A Free-Trade Agreement With Australia – @business https://t.co/kP6cFHl8Qx

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 16, 2026

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2033804274543788348

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033124186722381869

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033079682598424805

DB notes that "oil prices have risen by over 45% since the start of the war with Iran. Previous large shocks saw them rising by a median 30% (the first Gulf War in 1990, Iraq War in 2003, Russia-Ukraine in 2022 and around the Iran bombing last year).

"The S&P 500 is down about… pic.twitter.com/fHmHWIvjva

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 14, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032859922703016125

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032863623589077082

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032855996876435593

U.S. junk bond yields at the highest level of the year pic.twitter.com/mHZltx6Qot

— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) March 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033424953605836940

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033425037114347926

This is a very well-hedged market, based on multiple measures of short positioning and put exposure at the index level.

That makes it harder to decisively push price lower, creating a buffer effect.

Chart: Goldman Sachs pic.twitter.com/Gy4ltZfxIL

— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) March 14, 2026

Bearish positioning by hedge funds is at extreme levels:

Hedge fund short positions in US-listed ETFs surged +10% on Thursday, the 2nd-largest single-day increase in data going back to 2016.

The only bigger day was April 2nd, 2025, "Liberation Day," when shorts jumped +16%.

As… pic.twitter.com/SWgChVf5In

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 14, 2026

Record Liquidations: Institutions Just Sold The Most S&P Futures Ever https://t.co/vwmBbc4XCj

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 14, 2026

Each Sunday’s Week Ahead includes systematic positioning updates from BoA, DB, Tier1Alpha, etc. Sub here, and it will hit your inbox later today https://t.co/EJ1jHlZifx.

From DB:

Our measure of aggregate equity positioning continued to drift lower and is below neutral… pic.twitter.com/lvYNzn2qdB

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 15, 2026

This post got a lot of reaction. But really what most people want is the backtest on SPX right?

Well McElligott also mentions that the share of S&P 500 names exhibiting 80%ile or greater one-month skew (“downside hedging tilt") last week hit 74%.

I'll let him describe the… https://t.co/Q9OSJPXssS pic.twitter.com/v5ptXDZRZl

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) March 15, 2026

Calling 2020 market bottom within our March 22, 2020 Report:

"…the correlation defied the rules of math by achieving a reading above 100%, to 101.25%. That’s the ultimate sign of a panic and/or capitulation in the market. Do you know when this tends to happen also? This… pic.twitter.com/sZ79q80yEx

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) March 14, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032866287592833471

Core PCE
1-month annualized: 4.5%
3-month annualized: 3.7%
6-month annualized: 3.1%

Headline PCE
1-month annualized: 3.4%
3-month annualized: 3.5%
6-month annualized: 3.2% pic.twitter.com/xyDUgoyX3T

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 13, 2026

The BEA’s decision to change legal services source data in the PCE from CPI (around 11.3% in Jan) to PPI (1.8% in Jan) cut the core PCE MoM chg by 8bps (would have been 0.44% vs 0.36%). Could defend move on the merits (not political) but timing & lack of heads up were troubling. pic.twitter.com/Cnbyz5PdC5

— Omair Sharif (@fcastofthemonth) March 13, 2026

New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods were unexpectedly unchanged in January, while shipments fell, indicating weakness in business spending on equipment.

More Here → https://t.co/amczLdaD2J pic.twitter.com/HhXdvf3ICv

— PiQ Newswire (@PiQNewswire) March 13, 2026

The slow-to-hire, slow-to-fire equilibrium continued in January. This chart is for private-sector workers pic.twitter.com/JtTvCdNcgG

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032886104060277167

Farmers in the U.S. and Canada are facing disrupted spring planting due to fertilizer shortages, with prices spiking more than a third since the war in Iran paralyzed global trade.

More Here → https://t.co/INbD0wUvg4 pic.twitter.com/CXzfjzFnGc

— PiQ Newswire (@PiQNewswire) March 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032777725061083386

U.S. President Donald Trump signed two executive orders on Friday aimed at improving housing affordability.

More Here → https://t.co/zXgUdu0v61 pic.twitter.com/CTwufaev4T

— PiQ Newswire (@PiQNewswire) March 13, 2026

A federal judge blocked subpoenas served to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by the Justice Department in a probe concerning the central bank's renovation.

More Here → https://t.co/GvpP2iM21h pic.twitter.com/OfpGhjbui3

— PiQ Newswire (@PiQNewswire) March 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033420370145955845

Exclusive-New US weapons for Taiwan could be approved after Trump's China trip, sources say

More Here → https://t.co/UjLDDYEEFW pic.twitter.com/uscTnjog7K

— PiQ (@PiQSuite) March 13, 2026

President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. is talking to Cuba and that its leaders should agree to a deal, which he believes would be easily made.

More Here → https://t.co/kXFufNUxC1 pic.twitter.com/oFqeSzGaQA

— PiQ Newswire (@PiQNewswire) March 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032858426133332277

Many countries, including the US, will send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, Trump says pic.twitter.com/u8akSkLDKA

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) March 14, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033269365777285510

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032741041288212572

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2032675588616433986

Some oil loading operations in the port of Fujairah, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, have been suspended after a drone attack and fire on Saturday morning, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/hmr89kgeUF

— Bloomberg (@business) March 14, 2026

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2032929497356673424

The U.S. military has elevated its investigation into a strike on an Iranian girls' school after media reports indicated U.S. forces were likely responsible, a strike that Iran claims killed 168 children.

More Here → https://t.co/g78jvTrDZ1 pic.twitter.com/qKJYWiEhtZ

— PiQ Newswire (@PiQNewswire) March 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032408361354825858

Iran can’t punish the US militarily to any significant degree but it can punish the Trump administration politically.

The Iran war is unpopular with most American voters. According to betting markets, the Democrats are favored to take the House in November and have nearly… pic.twitter.com/E9zvuOMW8d

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) March 13, 2026

Indonesia’s stocks and government bonds fell on concern Prabowo Subianto’s administration is moving closer to removing the long-held deficit ceiling for the state budget https://t.co/wzwy57S6mp

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

Yields on China’s 30-year bonds were headed for the highest close since September 2024 as rising oil prices fueled by the war in Iran stoked inflation concern https://t.co/my2d392oCo

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032864610626273435

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033419448535646296

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033418553945116767

Australian households are likely to face increased cost-of-living pressures, with the inflation rate set to rise above 4.5% as the oil price climbs, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Sunday https://t.co/c6UcVNJyYw

— Bloomberg (@business) March 15, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033281425332408493

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033422453607653662

Embattled Chinese property developer Fantasia has unveiled detailed terms of its offshore debt restructuring, including plans to issue new equity, convertible bonds, and long-dated secured notes.

More Here → https://t.co/R5YiAx5Kaz pic.twitter.com/XWHoKHvFqv

— PiQ Newswire (@PiQNewswire) March 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033422906730934461

Japan ready to act against sharp yen swings, finance minister says https://t.co/Mb45ALLqbD

— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) March 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033081512652935677

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033425802725822695

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032393500977750425

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033080973089202425

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033420998830109002

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is stepping up engagement with Iran as a worsening conflict in the Middle East causes severe gas shortages in the country and threatens economic growth https://t.co/q4A9c4JCmK

— Bloomberg (@business) March 15, 2026

Oil Prices Near $100: How Strait Of Hormuz Tensions And War Risks Are Driving Crudehttps://t.co/4hoxH41sy6

— ABP LIVE (@abplive) March 16, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032741775127830736

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032894467678609643

When Britain was last hit by a major energy shock after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Bank of England cranked up interest rates to chase down spiraling inflation. This time is different. https://t.co/qPUZHXjhyK

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033426580479905814

German environment minister urges a boost in renewables to aid energy security https://t.co/WYDxuC0GLW via @IsoldeMacdonogh pic.twitter.com/5zqqXbdRMt

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 14, 2026

Reeves weighs targeted UK energy support as oil prices surge https://t.co/7eyPRGwVic pic.twitter.com/UbgGuvUWWn

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 14, 2026

Swiss voters are in favor of squeezing wealthy residents with higher taxes to fund the military and pensions in what could turn into a second attack on large fortunes in less than a year https://t.co/eaWpObBLVA via @bbenrath pic.twitter.com/XOvoGYHk1J

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) March 15, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033427710676980223

https://twitter.com/karimbitar/status/2032716408308519146

KyivIndependent: Ukraine has no good options to replace a crucial cash package from the European Union, which Hungary continues to block, leaving Kyiv hurtling towards a hole in its finances as it awaits a solution to the impasse.https://t.co/PNhLrnm3ZZ

— GMan | GMan’s Chronicle (@FAB87F) March 16, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033426950761439232

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033451697205346661

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033430232317731282

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2033124186722381869

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2032779728562634841