Christophe Barraud https://www.christophe-barraud.com/ Best Forecaster in the World Thu, 04 Jun 2026 07:35:09 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/cropped-cropped-Christophe-Barraud-favicon-2-32x32.png Christophe Barraud https://www.christophe-barraud.com/ 32 32 Morning Brief: I will be off until Monday for the Monaco GP. https://www.christophe-barraud.com/morning-brief-i-will-be-off-until-monday-for-the-monaco-gp/ Thu, 04 Jun 2026 07:35:07 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21838

]]> Morning Brief: Gold Surpasses US Treasuries as Reserve Asset; Iran Still Reviewing the U.S Proposal; Chinese Investors Exit Hong Kong Stocks https://www.christophe-barraud.com/morning-brief-gold-surpasses-us-treasuries-as-reserve-asset-iran-still-reviewing-the-u-s-proposal-chinese-investors-exit-hong-kong-stocks/ Wed, 03 Jun 2026 07:20:35 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21829 Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2062036660657836182

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Monetary Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Focus on Middle East conflict

Asia/Middle East

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2062040280220450946

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2062032827583983900

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Europe

Markets

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2062029465388020189

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061178498698359124
https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/2061853851289112750

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

]]> Gold Surpasses US Treasuries as Central Banks Prioritize Sovereignty Over Yield https://www.christophe-barraud.com/gold-surpasses-us-treasuries-as-central-banks-prioritize-sovereignty-over-yield/ Wed, 03 Jun 2026 06:17:16 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21830 Gold surpasses US Treasuries as the worldā€™s leading central bank reserve asset, according to a recent ECB report. While this may initially appear to be a technical adjustment in global reserve composition, the implications are far more significant.

The shift reveals a deeper transformation in how central banks think about reserve management. For decades, reserve strategy centered on liquidity, yield, and safety. Today, geopolitical risk and monetary sovereignty are becoming equally important.

For years, US Treasuries represented the ultimate reserve asset. They offered deep liquidity, reliable income, and the backing of the worldā€™s largest economy. Holding Treasuries meant holding the safest and most liquid claim in the global financial system.

But gold is now returning to the center of central bank reserves ā€” and this is not accidental. It is a signal of a changing global monetary regime.

Why Gold Surpasses US Treasuries as a Reserve Asset

Gold is no longer viewed solely as a crisis hedge or inflation protection tool. It is increasingly being treated as a long-term strategic reserve asset by central banks worldwide.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2062029125343166877

Investors typically evaluate gold through a market lens: inflation expectations, real interest rates, dollar weakness, or recession fears. Central banks see it differently.

For policymakers, gold represents something unique: an asset outside the financial system. It has no issuer, no counterparty risk, and no default risk. Unlike US Treasuries, gold is not tied to the liabilities of any government.

Treasuries may offer yield and unmatched market liquidity, but they remain financial claims tied to the US government and the broader dollar-based system. Gold pays no coupon, but it also depends on no sovereign promise. In a world becoming increasingly fragmented, that neutrality is becoming more valuable.

The Ukraine War Changed Reserve Management

The war in Ukraine marked a major turning point in how central banks think about reserve assets.

Following the freezing of part of Russiaā€™s foreign exchange reserves, many countries realized that reserve assets are exposed not only to financial risk, but also to geopolitical and political risk.

Historically, reserve management focused on diversification, liquidity, and return optimization. Today, central banks must also ask whether reserve assets could be sanctioned, frozen, or politically restricted during a crisis.

This is one reason gold has become more attractive. Gold is not dependent on another countryā€™s payment system, banking infrastructure, or legal framework. For many emerging-market central banks, it now functions as a form of monetary insurance against geopolitical uncertainty.

This Does Not Mean the End of the Dollar

The rise of gold does not mean the U.S. dollar is collapsing.

The dollar remains dominant in global trade, international debt markets, commodity pricing, foreign exchange transactions, and reserve management. No other currency currently offers the same combination of liquidity, market depth, convertibility, and institutional credibility.

The euro remains important but lacks the capital-market scale of the United States. Chinaā€™s renminbi has growing geopolitical importance, but capital controls and limited convertibility prevent it from becoming a true global reserve replacement.

Instead, central banks are pursuing diversification rather than outright de-dollarization.

The key shift is that dollar dominance is no longer viewed as entirely neutral or automatic. Countries are increasingly seeking to reduce excessive dependence on a single financial system.

Goldā€™s Rise Is Driven by Buying and Price Appreciation

Goldā€™s growing share in global reserves is not solely the result of central banks dumping U.S. Treasuries.

Two important forces are driving the trend. First, central banks have been consistent net buyers of gold in recent years as they diversify reserve holdings away from the dollar-centric system.

Second, rising gold prices have mechanically increased the value of existing reserves. Even without massive new purchases, higher gold prices naturally raise goldā€™s share of total reserve portfolios.

This does not signal a collapse in confidence in Treasuries. Rather, it reflects a gradual rebalancing of reserve strategy.

Treasuries remain essential to the global financial system, but gold provides something Treasuries cannot: monetary neutrality.

US Treasuries Remain Essential but Are No Longer Untouchable

US Treasuries still sit at the core of global collateral markets, dollar liquidity, and financial pricing. They remain one of the worldā€™s most important financial assets.

However, they are no longer perceived as fully geopolitically neutral.

Treasuries are ultimately tied to U.S. institutions, sanctions policy, legal systems, and the broader dollar infrastructure. For countries aligned with Washington, this may not be a concern. For countries seeking greater strategic autonomy, it increasingly matters.

Gold benefits from this shift because it is politically harder to weaponize once physically held. It cannot be printed by governments, frozen through payment systems, or dependent on another sovereign honoring its obligations.

As geopolitical fragmentation rises, that independence becomes more attractive.

The Bigger Story Is Global Monetary Fragmentation

The broader message is not the immediate end of the dollar system. Rather, it is the gradual fragmentation of the global monetary order.

Central banks increasingly want reserve portfolios that are more diversified, resilient, and less exposed to a single geopolitical bloc.

This does not mean abandoning U.S. Treasuries altogether. Instead, countries are combining Treasury holdings with larger gold allocations and broader currency diversification strategies.

Gold is not replacing the dollar as the operating system of global finance. It is becoming a hedge against the political risks embedded within that system.

Bottom Line:

Gold overtaking US Treasuries as the leading reserve asset does not signal the collapse of the dollar. The dollar remains central to the global economy, and Treasuries remain indispensable to financial markets.

However, central banks are clearly preparing for a world where dependence on dollar-based assets is no longer considered entirely risk-free.

Gold is not being accumulated because it offers yield. It is being accumulated because it depends on no one.

That is the real signal.

]]> Morning Brief: USā€“Iran: Talks Stall, Hormuz Risk Returns; Eurozone Core CPI Rose More Than Expected; EU May Ease Budget Rules Over Energy Costs https://www.christophe-barraud.com/morning-brief-us-iran-talks-stall-hormuz-risk-returns-eurozone-core-cpi-rose-more-than-expected-eu-may-ease-budget-rules-over-energy-costs/ Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:44:17 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21827 Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061723804380864628

Americas

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061670995912474646
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061680277731057698

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061701765779562881

Monetary Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2061648658534375868

*Focus on Middle East conflict

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/2061525974286565681

Asia/Middle East

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061675915705188543
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061684984000241913
https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2061631442975920183
https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2061635215647482315

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Housing

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061683803307782332

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2061620483632820730

Fiscal Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061685446007001559
https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2061735534029050217

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Europe

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061739017079488941

Housing

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061740432862683374

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061178498698359124

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

]]> Pourquoi lā€™Ć©conomie mondiale entre dans une nouvelle phase dā€™incertitude – ConfĆ©rence au Monaco Economic Board https://www.christophe-barraud.com/pourquoi-leconomie-mondiale-entre-dans-une-nouvelle-phase-dincertitude-conference-au-monaco-economic-board/ Mon, 01 Jun 2026 17:32:28 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21756 Le 26 mai, jā€™ai eu le plaisir dā€™intervenir lors dā€™une confĆ©rence Ć©conomique organisĆ©e par le Monaco Economic Board (MEB), avec le soutien dā€™EFG Bank Monaco, afin de partager une lecture de lā€™environnement macroĆ©conomique et gĆ©opolitique actuel. Lā€™objectif Ć©tait de prendre de la hauteur sur les grandes forces qui structurent aujourdā€™hui lā€™Ć©conomie mondiale. Dans ce contexte, nous ne sommes plus dans un cycle Ć©conomique classique mais dans une phase de transition oĆ¹ les investisseurs, les entreprises et les dĆ©cideurs doivent apprendre Ć  raisonner davantage en scĆ©narios quā€™en certitudes.

1- Chine : une croissance solide en apparence mais plus fragile quā€™il nā€™y paraĆ®t

ƀ premiĆØre vue, lā€™Ć©conomie chinoise continue dā€™afficher une certaine rĆ©sistance. La croissance du PIB a progressĆ© de 5,0 % sur un an au premier trimestre 2026, un chiffre supĆ©rieur aux attentes et compatible avec lā€™objectif officiel du gouvernement, situĆ© autour de 4,5 % Ć  5 %. DerriĆØre cette apparente soliditĆ©, les fondations de la croissance restent beaucoup plus fragiles.

Dā€™abord, une partie importante de la performance rĆ©cente a Ć©tĆ© portĆ©e par des facteurs difficiles Ć  prolonger. Le secteur financier a par exemple progressĆ© plus vite que lā€™industrie manufacturiĆØre, notamment grĆ¢ce Ć  une activitĆ© dynamique sur les marchĆ©s actions, des volumes de transactions Ć©levĆ©s et une reprise des introductions en Bourse. Ce type de soutien peut amĆ©liorer temporairement les chiffres de croissance, mais il ne constitue pas nĆ©cessairement une base durable pour lā€™Ć©conomie rĆ©elle sur l’ensemble de l’annĆ©e.

Ensuite, la Chine reste confrontĆ©e Ć  une demande domestique insuffisante. La consommation demeure faible, la croissance des ventes au dĆ©tail a nettement ralenti et plusieurs secteurs liĆ©s au logement restent sous pression. Lā€™immobilier continue de jouer un rĆ“le central dans cette faiblesse. Lorsque le prix des logements baisse, ce nā€™est pas seulement un problĆØme pour les promoteurs : cā€™est aussi un problĆØme pour les mĆ©nages, car lā€™immobilier reprĆ©sente une part trĆØs importante de leur patrimoine. Si les mĆ©nages ont le sentiment que leur richesse diminue, ils consomment moins, Ć©pargnent davantage et alimentent un cercle de prudence.

Ce ralentissement domestique oblige PĆ©kin Ć  maintenir un niveau Ć©levĆ© de soutien public. Lā€™investissement privĆ© reste pĆ©nalisĆ© par la crise immobiliĆØre, tandis que lā€™investissement public continue de jouer un rĆ“le dā€™amortisseur. Autrement dit, la Chine reste dĆ©pendante de lā€™Ć‰tat pour stabiliser son Ć©conomie. Cā€™est une situation paradoxale : le pays veut accĆ©lĆ©rer sa montĆ©e en gamme technologique, devenir plus autonome, renforcer ses chaĆ®nes industrielles et rĆ©duire sa dĆ©pendance extĆ©rieure, mais il doit en mĆŖme temps gĆ©rer une Ć©conomie intĆ©rieure qui manque encore de confiance.

La grande ambition chinoise des prochaines annĆ©es repose donc sur deux piliers : la souverainetĆ© technologique et la relance de la consommation. Sur le premier point, PĆ©kin veut accĆ©lĆ©rer dans les semi-conducteurs, lā€™intelligence artificielle, les Ć©nergies renouvelables et les industries stratĆ©giques. Lā€™objectif est de ne plus dĆ©pendre des technologies occidentales dans un monde oĆ¹ les restrictions Ć  lā€™exportation, les sanctions et les tensions commerciales deviennent des outils gĆ©opolitiques. Sur le second point, la Chine cherche Ć  augmenter la part de la consommation dans son PIB, encore infĆ©rieure Ć  celle des grandes Ć©conomies dĆ©veloppĆ©es, mais changer un modĆØle de croissance bĆ¢ti pendant des dĆ©cennies sur lā€™investissement, lā€™industrie et lā€™exportation prendra du temps.

La Chine ne sā€™effondre donc pas, mais elle change de nature. Sa croissance devient plus politique, plus administrĆ©e, plus dĆ©pendante des arbitrages de PĆ©kin. Pour les investisseurs, cela signifie quā€™il faut moins regarder la Chine comme une simple machine exportatrice mondiale, et davantage comme une Ć©conomie en transition vers un modĆØle plus technologique, plus souverain, mais aussi plus contraint.

2. Ɖtats-Unis : une Ć©conomie rĆ©siliente mais au prix de dĆ©sĆ©quilibres croissants

ƀ lā€™inverse, les Ɖtats-Unis continuent de surprendre par leur rĆ©silience. MalgrĆ© des taux Ć©levĆ©s, des tensions gĆ©opolitiques, un environnement politique instable et une inflation encore prĆ©sente, lā€™Ć©conomie amĆ©ricaine semble capable dā€™Ć©viter une rĆ©cession en 2026. La croissance devrait rester robuste, soutenue par plusieurs moteurs.

Le premier moteur est budgĆ©taire. Les Ɖtats-Unis continuent de soutenir leur Ć©conomie par des mesures fiscales importantes, notamment via des baisses dā€™impĆ“ts et des transferts qui renforcent le revenu disponible dā€™une partie des mĆ©nages. Cette impulsion a contribuĆ© Ć  soutenir la consommation sur les premiers mois de l’annĆ©e, qui reste le cœur du modĆØle Ć©conomique amĆ©ricain. Tant que les mĆ©nages consomment, lā€™Ć©conomie amĆ©ricaine conserve une capacitĆ© dā€™absorption considĆ©rable.

Le deuxiĆØme moteur est patrimonial. Les mĆ©nages amĆ©ricains ont bĆ©nĆ©ficiĆ© ces derniĆØres annĆ©es de la hausse des marchĆ©s actions, de la progression de la valeur immobiliĆØre et dā€™un marchĆ© du travail encore relativement solide. MĆŖme si les inĆ©galitĆ©s restent fortes, cet effet richesse soutient la demande, notamment chez les mĆ©nages exposĆ©s aux actifs financiers.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059563139876765714

Le troisiĆØme moteur est technologique. Lā€™intelligence artificielle, les investissements dans les data centers, les semi-conducteurs, lā€™Ć©nergie et les infrastructures numĆ©riques crĆ©ent une nouvelle dynamique dā€™investissement.

Enfin, l’intelligence artificielle n’est pas simplement une question d’investissements massifs mais aussi de productivitĆ©. Plusieurs mesures suggĆØrent que cette derniĆØre a progressĆ© rĆ©cemment et pourrait encore accĆ©lĆ©rer dans les trimestres Ć  venir.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059656405842272667

Cette rĆ©silience amĆ©ricaine a un prix puisque les dĆ©sĆ©quilibres budgĆ©taires deviennent de plus en plus difficiles Ć  ignorer. Les dĆ©ficits restent Ć©levĆ©s, la dette publique continue de progresser et les investisseurs demandent une rĆ©munĆ©ration plus importante pour financer lā€™Ć‰tat amĆ©ricain. Cā€™est lā€™un des grands changements de rĆ©gime actuels : les obligations souveraines amĆ©ricaines ne sont plus perƧues de maniĆØre aussi automatique comme un actif sans risque absolu. Elles restent centrales dans le systĆØme financier mondial, mais leur prix devient plus sensible aux dĆ©ficits, Ć  lā€™inflation et Ć  la trajectoire politique.

Cette situation complique aussi la tĆ¢che de la RĆ©serve fĆ©dĆ©rale. Si lā€™inflation reste trop Ć©levĆ©e, la Fed ne peut pas baisser ses taux trop vite, mais si la croissance ralentit trop, elle devra envisager un assouplissement monĆ©taire. Elle se retrouve donc dans une position dĆ©licate : soutenir lā€™Ć©conomie sans relancer lā€™inflation, rassurer les marchĆ©s sans donner lā€™impression de financer indirectement les dĆ©ficits publics.

Les Ɖtats-Unis restent donc la zone la plus rĆ©siliente, mais cette rĆ©silience repose de plus en plus sur un Ć©quilibre fragile entre soutien budgĆ©taire, confiance des marchĆ©s et capacitĆ© Ć  transformer les investissements technologiques en gains Ć©conomiques rĆ©els.

3- Zone euro : le risque dā€™un scĆ©nario de croissance faible et dā€™inflation persistante

La zone euro est sans doute la rĆ©gion la plus vulnĆ©rable face aux turbulences actuelles. Elle ne bĆ©nĆ©ficie ni de la puissance budgĆ©taire amĆ©ricaine, ni de la capacitĆ© de pilotage centralisĆ©e chinoise. Elle avance dans un environnement oĆ¹ la croissance reste faible, les marges budgĆ©taires sont limitĆ©es et lā€™inflation peut repartir sous lā€™effet de chocs externes, notamment sur lā€™Ć©nergie.

Le principal risque pour lā€™Europe nā€™est pas simplement une rĆ©cession technique. Le risque le plus problĆ©matique est celui dā€™un environnement de stagflation avec peu de croissance mais une inflation encore prĆ©sente. Cā€™est une configuration difficile car elle rĆ©duit considĆ©rablement les marges de manœuvre des banques centrales et des gouvernements. Si la croissance ralentit, il faudrait soutenir lā€™activitĆ©, mais si lā€™inflation reste trop Ć©levĆ©e, il devient dangereux de relancer trop fortement la demande.

Lā€™Europe reste aussi trĆØs exposĆ©e aux chocs gĆ©opolitiques. Les tensions au Moyen-Orient, les perturbations du commerce mondial, les prix de lā€™Ć©nergie et la fragmentation des chaĆ®nes de valeur ont un impact direct sur ses entreprises et ses consommateurs. Contrairement aux Ɖtats-Unis, la zone euro importe une part importante de son Ć©nergie et dispose dā€™un marchĆ© intĆ©rieur moins dynamique. Cela rend son Ć©conomie plus vulnĆ©rable aux chocs dā€™offre.

ƀ cela sā€™ajoute un problĆØme de compĆ©titivitĆ©. Lā€™Europe doit investir massivement dans la transition Ć©nergĆ©tique, la dĆ©fense, lā€™intelligence artificielle, les infrastructures et la souverainetĆ© industrielle. Mais elle le fait avec des finances publiques dĆ©jĆ  contraintes et une coordination politique souvent lente. Le risque est donc de rester coincĆ© entre deux impĆ©ratifs : investir davantage pour ne pas dĆ©crocher, tout en respectant des contraintes budgĆ©taires de plus en plus strictes.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2056675160355168273

Pour la Banque centrale europĆ©enne, lā€™Ć©quation est tout aussi dĆ©licate. Une baisse trop rapide des taux pourrait raviver les pressions inflationnistes ou affaiblir lā€™euro alors quā€™une politique trop restrictive pourrait au contraire accentuer le ralentissement Ć©conomique. La BCE doit donc naviguer dans une zone grise, oĆ¹ chaque dĆ©cision dĆ©pendra fortement de lā€™Ć©volution des prix de lā€™Ć©nergie, des salaires et de la demande.

La zone euro nā€™est pas condamnĆ©e, mais elle doit clarifier son modĆØle. Dans un monde oĆ¹ les grandes puissances utilisent de plus en plus la politique industrielle, la dĆ©pense publique et la souverainetĆ© technologique comme armes Ć©conomiques, lā€™Europe ne peut plus se contenter dā€™une approche dĆ©fensive. Elle doit choisir ses prioritĆ©s, accĆ©lĆ©rer ses investissements stratĆ©giques et rĆ©duire sa dĆ©pendance aux chocs extĆ©rieurs.

Conclusion : apprendre Ć  investir dans un monde moins lisible

Le point commun entre la Chine, les Ɖtats-Unis et la zone euro est que partout, lā€™Ć©conomie devient plus politique. Les marchĆ©s ne rĆ©agissent plus seulement aux chiffres de croissance, dā€™inflation ou de rĆ©sultats dā€™entreprises mais aussi et surtout aux dĆ©cisions budgĆ©taires, aux tensions gĆ©opolitiques, aux politiques industrielles, aux guerres commerciales et aux choix de souverainetĆ©.

Nous ne sommes pas revenus au monde dā€™avant. La mondialisation devient plus fragmentĆ©e, les Ɖtats reprennent un rĆ“le central, les chaĆ®nes de valeur se rĆ©organisent et les investisseurs doivent intĆ©grer davantage de variables macroĆ©conomiques et gĆ©opolitiques dans leur lecture des marchĆ©s.

Dans ce contexte, la bonne approche nā€™est pas de chercher une certitude absolue. Elle consiste plutĆ“t Ć  identifier les grands scĆ©narios possibles, comprendre les fragilitĆ©s de chaque zone Ć©conomique et accepter que les marchĆ©s Ć©voluent dĆ©sormais dans un environnement plus instable, mais aussi plus riche en opportunitĆ©s pour ceux qui savent prendre de la hauteur.

]]> Morning Brief: The Weekend Reduced Hope of a Quick U.S.-Iran Deal; Chinese Data Signals Continued Slowdown; France To Cut Growth Forecasts https://www.christophe-barraud.com/morning-brief-the-weekend-reduced-hope-of-a-quick-u-s-iran-deal-chinese-data-signals-continued-slowdown-france-to-cut-growth-forecasts/ Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:03:47 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21819 Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061310117111271577

*Focus on positioning, sentiment, valuation, flows, technical analysis

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061119491702956073
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061311858540228786

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Energy

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061123173827920050

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

*Focus on Middle East conflict

https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/2061165166100676822

Asia/Middle East

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061309437797630265

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061118217376997804
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061306560589021519
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061305474805359040
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061307413672718735
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061311065950933247

Housing

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2061269154452414524
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061312890741588321

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Europe

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061334095230099950

Energy

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2060323223498113082
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061304499319243199

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061178498698359124
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061310690787197314

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

]]> Week Ahead: U.S. and Canada Employment Reports; U.S. ISMs; Eurozone and SK CPIs; Fed Beige Book; RBI Meeting; OECD Outlook https://www.christophe-barraud.com/week-ahead-u-s-and-canada-employment-reports-u-s-isms-eurozone-and-sk-cpis-fed-beige-book-rbi-meeting-oecd-outlook/ Sun, 31 May 2026 20:07:23 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21810 From the U.S. and Canadian May jobs report to the OECD economic outlook and many central bank speakers, hereā€™s what you need to know for the week ahead.

Monday

šŸŒŽ Worldwide May manufacturing PMI āš 

šŸ‡°šŸ‡· South KoreaĀ May trade data āš 

šŸ‡ÆšŸ‡µ JapanĀ Q1 capital spending

šŸ‡°šŸ‡· šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ TheĀ Bank of Korea International ConferenceĀ runs through June 2 in Seoul, with Governor Shin Hyun Song and ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel among the speakers – Bloomberg

šŸŒŽ The global tech industry gathers in Taipei forĀ ComputexĀ ahead of the main exhibition, which runs through June 5 – Bloomberg

šŸ‡¹šŸ‡¼ šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Cheng Li-wun, the head of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, is due to embark on a tour of the U.S. to promote her foreign policy and defense credentials amid growing criticism from part of the Washington establishment – Nikkei

šŸ‡«šŸ‡· The Choose France summit is held at Versailles to attract foreign investment – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ Eurozone April unemployment rate

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ Eurozone April ECB CPI expectations āš 

šŸ‡¬šŸ‡§ U.K. May Nationwide house prices

šŸ‡ØšŸ‡­ SwitzerlandĀ Q1 GDP

šŸ‡¹šŸ‡· TurkeyĀ Q1 GDP

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel gives speech in Seoul. The text will be made available on the ECB’s website – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau steps down, with Emmanuel Moulin set to succeed him – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. May ISM Manufacturing āš 

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. AprilĀ construction spending

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Fed Governor Jerome Powell gives acceptance remarks on receiving John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award JFK Presidential Library – Bloomberg

Tuesday

šŸ‡°šŸ‡· South May KoreaĀ CPI āš 

šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ RBA board member Ian Harper delivers a speech in Melbourne – Bloomberg

šŸ‡¬šŸ‡§ šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ U.K. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper visits China for talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi before heading to Shenzhen to meet with business leaders – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ø SpainĀ May unemployment rate

šŸ‡³šŸ‡± NetherlandsĀ May CPI

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ EurozoneĀ May CPI āš 

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn speaks to Finnish ambassadors – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic makes online remarks at the Icelandic conference – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen appears at hearing on financial stability at the Hague – Bloomberg

šŸ‡¬šŸ‡§ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey appears before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. Rate-setter Megan Greene speaks at the University of Derby – Bloomberg

šŸ‡µšŸ‡± PolandĀ rate decision

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. April JOLTS job openings āš 

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. MayĀ vehicle sales

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at the Bank of Korea conference – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at the City Club of Cleveland – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at a Brookings Institution discussion reviewing Jerome Powellā€™s tenure as Fed chair – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø US congressional primary elections are held in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota – Bloomberg

šŸ‡®šŸ‡± šŸ‡±šŸ‡§ Israel and Lebanon are scheduled to resume US-mediated talks in Washington – Bloomberg āš 

Wednesday

šŸŒŽ Worldwide June services and composite PMIs āš 

šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ AustraliaĀ Q1 GDP

šŸ‡ÆšŸ‡µ BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers a speech at the Kisaragi-kai gathering in Tokyo – Bloomberg

šŸŒ TheĀ St. Petersburg International Economic ForumĀ is held in Russia through June 6, with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud among the attendees – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ EurozoneĀ April PPI

šŸŒŽ Paris-basedĀ OECDĀ releases its latest economic outlook during the ministerial council meeting that runs through June 4 – Bloomberg āš 

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn gives aĀ keynote speech on AIĀ in Helsinki – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB Governing Council member Primoz Dolenc speaks about Sloveniaā€™s banking sector in Ljubljana – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson speaks at Goldman Sachsā€™ European Financials Conference in Zurich – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speaks at a hearing on the digital euro in Brussels – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. May ADP employment change

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. May ISM services index āš 

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. AprilĀ factory orders and durable goods

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Fed Beige Book āš 

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Dallas Fed President Lorie LoganĀ participates in a discussionĀ at the University of Texas at El Paso – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks at the Community Development Bankers Association Peer Forum in Washington – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduledĀ to testify on Treasuryā€™s budgetĀ to the Senate Finance Committee – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Bloomberg Tech SummitĀ in San Francisco, with key themes including AI and hyperscaler capex, chip and networking demand. Through June 4 – Bloomberg

Thursday

šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ AustraliaĀ April trade data

šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ RBA Governor Michele Bullock appears before the Senate Economics Legislation committee – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ø SpainĀ April industrial production

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ Eurozone AprilĀ retail sales

šŸ‡øšŸ‡Ŗ SwedenĀ May CPI

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech in Aix-en-Provence, France – Bloomberg āš 

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ The ECB enters its quiet period ahead of the June 10-11 rate-setting meeting – Bloomberg

šŸ‡¬šŸ‡§ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a speech at the Investment Association annual conference – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. weeklyĀ initial jobless claims

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks at the Bloomberg Tech Summit – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks on the economy at the Belmont Country Club – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Netflix holds its annual general meeting. Co-founder Reed Hastings is set to step down from the companyā€™s board – Bloomberg

Friday

šŸ‡ÆšŸ‡µ JapanĀ April household spending

šŸ‡ÆšŸ‡µ Japan April labor cash earnings

šŸ‡®šŸ‡³ India Q1 GDP

šŸ‡®šŸ‡³ RBI meeting āš 

šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser participates in a fireside chat at Australiaā€™s Economic Outlook in Sydney – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ The EU-Western Balkans Leaders Summit takes place in Montenegro – Bloomberg

šŸ‡«šŸ‡· FranceĀ April trade data

šŸ‡«šŸ‡· France April industrial production

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ Eurozone Q1 compensation per employee āš 

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ EurozoneĀ Q1 GDP (final estimate)

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ The Banque de France, BOE, ECB and Central Bank Research Association co-host the ECONDAT spring meeting in Paris – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ šŸ‡¬šŸ‡§ ECB Supervisory Board member Anneli Tuominen speaks in Helsinki – Bloomberg

šŸ‡¬šŸ‡§ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in Scotland. Rate-setter Swati Dhingra speaks at a University College London event – Bloomberg

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S.Ā employment report āš 

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. April consumer credit

šŸ‡ØšŸ‡¦ CanadaĀ May employment report āš 

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Fed’s Barr Speaks on Supervision & Regulation Kogod School of Business – Bloomberg

Earnings

Previews

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061118256811802654
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061167477527101846

*Focus on Asia

*Focus on Europe & UK

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061170201480073711
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061170459027083728

Focus on U.S. Economic Calendar

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week ā€“ w22

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061147918963249263

What Happened in the World Economy Last Week ā€“ in Charts ā€“ w22 (Bloomberg)

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061114175733092645

*Note: Previous reports can be found here

]]> Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w22 (2026) https://www.christophe-barraud.com/top-10-macro-financial-charts-of-the-week-w22-2026/ Sun, 31 May 2026 18:04:14 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21812 Find here the top 10 charts of the week, published on Twitter, that attracted attention among the macroeconomic and/or financial community.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2061119491702956073
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059863947583303923
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059864930820440453
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059855028253331763
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059867660691611808
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059878494297813213
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2060221775858876710
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2060303622777254291

*Note: Previous reports can be found here

]]> Morning Brief: U.S., Iran Agree to 60-Day Truce Renewal; Tokyo Inflation Easing Unlikely to Stop BOJ Hike; Eurozone Regional CPIs Surprised Downward on Average; France Probably In Recession https://www.christophe-barraud.com/morning-brief-u-s-iran-agree-to-60-day-truce-renewal-tokyo-inflation-easing-unlikely-to-stop-boj-hike-eurozone-regional-cpis-surprised-downward-on-average-france-probably-in-recession/ Fri, 29 May 2026 11:20:49 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21803 Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

https://twitter.com/business/status/2060179200779116676
https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/2060154315260432513

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Housing

Monetary Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

*Focus on Middle East conflict

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2060216183157145936

Asia/Middle East

Markets

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2060303622777254291

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2060304344126288254

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2060207804619911628

Europe

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Housing

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059961432536383971

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2058479671319142562

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

]]> Morning Brief: U.S. Strikes Iran Targets; A Surge in Climate Extremes; EU-China Trade Disputes https://www.christophe-barraud.com/morning-brief-u-s-strikes-iran-targets-a-surge-in-climate-extremes-eu-china-trade-disputes/ Thu, 28 May 2026 10:36:59 +0000 https://www.christophe-barraud.com/?p=21801 Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059672844309529079

Americas

Markets

*Focus on AI

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059917011547726246
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059164383243022723
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059859683125383296

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059563139876765714
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059558624192565567
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059656405842272667

Housing

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059863947583303923
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059864930820440453

*Focus on Middle East conflict

Asia/Middle East

Markets

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059865814430330951

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Europe

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059855028253331763

Housing

Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059867660691611808
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2059869365621731587

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2058479671319142562

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

]]>