Christophe Barraud

Week Ahead: US-Iran Truce Deadline; Warsh Hearing; EU leaders’ Summit; Canada, Japan and NZ CPIs; Flash PMIs; U.S. Retail Sales; U.K. Jobs Data; Bundesbank Report

Christophe Barraud — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 08:26:39 +0000

From the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline to Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination hearing to an EU leaders’ summit, here’s what you need to know about the week ahead.

Monday

China loan prime rates

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang Yong’s four-year term ends, with Shin Hyun Song set to succeed him – Bloomberg

Germany March PPI

Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen speaks at a conference in Espoo, Finland – Bloomberg

Canada March CPI

Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein interviews Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf at the Economic Club of Washington – Bloomberg

At the TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium in Santa Clara, California, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will share updates on its newest technological advancements and innovations, with a strong emphasis on artificial intelligence – Nikkei

Tuesday

New Zealand Q1 CPI

Taiwan March export orders

EU foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg to discuss Ukraine, the Middle East, and global security – Bloomberg

Germany April ZEW survey expectations

U.K. February and March employment data

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at International Economics Symposium in Rome; colleague Martin Kocher gives opening remarks at a conference on Ukraine in Vienna – Bloomberg

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks followed by Q&A at event organized by La Razón in Madrid – Bloomberg

Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge participates in a panel about decision-making psychology in Stockholm – Bloomberg

U.S. March retail sales

U.S. pending home sales

Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at the Brookings Institution on the central bank’s operations.

The Senate Banking Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Donald Trump in January to lead the Federal Reserve – Bloomberg

The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire at day’s end – Bloomberg

Wednesday

Japan March trade data

Indonesia rate decision

Eurozone April consumer confidence

U.K. March CPI

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane participates in panel discussion at pre-presidency Irish Financial Issues Conference organized by the Consulate General of Ireland – Bloomberg

ECB Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen speaks at Jeroen Bosch Summit in Amsterdam – Bloomberg

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech and appears on panel about digital euro in Brussels – Bloomberg

ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks on global challenges at the London School of Economics – Bloomberg

Bundesbank Monthly Report

BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is part of an FT fireside chat about private credit – Bloomberg

Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks at the launch of the Gender Balance Index 2026, organized by OMFIF – Bloomberg

Turkey rate decision

Tesla, IBM, Boeing earnings.

Thursday

Worldwide April, manufacturing, services and composite PMIs

South Korea Q1 GDP

EU leaders hold an informal summit in Cyprus, with the war in Iran having pushed energy prices to the top of the agenda. Through April 24 – Bloomberg

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on central-bank independence – Bloomberg

The ECB enters its quiet period ahead of the April 29-30 rate-setting meeting.

Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Seim speaks in Umea, Sweden – Bloomberg

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims

Friday

The Beijing Auto Show kicks off, with global automakers unveiling cutting-edge electric vehicles, concept cars, and smart technologies. Through May 3 – Bloomberg

Japan March CPI

Japan March PPI Services

Germany April IFO business climate

Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks at the bank’s Annual General Meeting in Bern – Bloomberg

Russia rate decision

U.S. April U. of Michigan consumer sentiment

Canada February retail sales

Earnings

#earnings for the week of April 20, 2026 https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY $TSLA $UNH $INTC $NOW $VRT $ISRG $IBM $LRCX $CLF $NOK $GE $GEV $ALK $BA $UAL $T $RTX $BX $COF $DOW $FCX $LUV $TXN $TCBI $STM $IBKR $LMT $HXL $HBAN $EQT $ELV $AXP $BSX $AAL $CSX $BOH $CB $KDP $NLY $MMM $PG $WRB… pic.twitter.com/5nRgdpSkmt
— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) April 17, 2026

The earnings season starts to pick up next week with 1,300+ companies set to report. Watch for: $TSLA, $INTC, $PG, $LRCX, $GE, $UNH, $RTX, $GEV, $PM, $IBM, $SAP, $AXP, $UNP, $ISRG, $BA, $NEM, $SNY and many more. #earnings #stockmarket #investing #trading pic.twitter.com/P2RN8LK4Cv
— Wall Street Horizon (@WallStHorizon) April 17, 2026

🗓️ What are you watching this week?

• Tuesday: $UNH $ISRG $UAL
• Wednesday: $TSLA $NOW $IBM $GEV $T $BA $LRCX $CMCSA $LUV
• Thursday: $AXP $LMT
• Friday: $PG $FISV $APPF

All visualized in our newsletter! pic.twitter.com/KL7cnn41CH
— App Economy Insights (@EconomyApp) April 18, 2026

🇺🇸 Strong Earnings Results Can’t Save Stocks from Dimming Forecasts – Bloomberghttps://t.co/TfblmHNffd pic.twitter.com/n9FKaU5hh0
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

🇺🇸 #SPX | Excluding NVIDIA, “Mag 7” Companies Expected to Report Lower Earnings Growth Than Other 493 – Factsethttps://t.co/PoZTgb0puX pic.twitter.com/Us5W2HcIeG
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

Previews

🌎 #Weekahead | War Revives Stagflation Dangers for Global Economy – Bloomberghttps://t.co/ygN7mkrvCM pic.twitter.com/ZXN6ZHZsHp
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 19, 2026

🌎 #Weekahead | US-Iran ceasefire expiry, Warsh Hearing, Flash PMIs, US Retail Sales, UK Jobs, Inflation from Japan, UK, NZ and Canada – Newsquawkhttps://t.co/p5SBKz3x0b
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

*Focus on Asia

China auto show, India state elections, TSMC tech event https://t.co/TvOds8Ey9I
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) April 19, 2026

*Focus on Europe

🇪🇺 The #weekahead 20 – 26 April 2026 – European Parliamenthttps://t.co/0Jp4dgXQZP
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

🇪🇺 #Weekahead | Forward look: 20 April – 3 May 2026 – European Councilhttps://t.co/tnsXsKHCUB
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

Focus on U.S. Economic Calendar

🇺🇸 Wall St #WeekAhead Surging record-high US stocks to wade deeper into earnings season – Reutershttps://t.co/DgxB2t5kmU
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

Kevin Warsh, Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee, faces a congressional hearing on Tuesday as inflation concerns rise amid the Iran war's energy-price surge pic.twitter.com/xOKzb9rItZ
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 17, 2026

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w16

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w16 (2026) ⚠

*HT @zerohedge, @neilksethi, @MikeZaccardi, @PeterBerezinBCA #Positioning #Stocks #Shortsqueeze #AI #OpenAI #Anthropic https://t.co/iub87E03On
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

What Happened in the World Economy Last Week – in Charts – w16 (Bloomberg)

🌎 Charting the Global Economy: IMF Trims World Growth Projections – Bloomberghttps://t.co/gkiOX2LdcY pic.twitter.com/OmvrU4PKDT
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

*Note: Previous reports can be found here

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w16 (2026)

Christophe Barraud — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 09:35:16 +0000

Find here the top 10 charts of the week, published on Twitter, that attracted attention among the macroeconomic and/or financial community.

From Oversold to Overbought in 2 weeks https://t.co/efNqthk9Er pic.twitter.com/V06CggdVnV
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 16, 2026

Short Squeeze Turbocharges Equity Rally as Riskiest Stocks Soar – Bloomberghttps://t.co/Lac82A57jy pic.twitter.com/Q170uSfzkO
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 18, 2026

Goldman (Garrett): the speed of CTA global equity buying over the last week is top five all time … +$86 billion over that time frame…

gs futures strats have this cohort modelled to purchase an additional $70 billion of the next 5
sessions (flat tape),

while past performance… pic.twitter.com/G6OsHXiZGg
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 17, 2026

Citadel's Rubner:

Positioning has reset, volatility has compressed, and flows are re-engaging, marking a meaningful shift in the underlying market backdrop.

As we move into the heart of earnings season, focus is shifting back toward fundamentals, with a more idiosyncratic,… pic.twitter.com/kLN5Wwhr9n
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 16, 2026

Goldman: Despite the sharp market rebound so far in April, net trading flows and positioning have not fully caught up, in our view.

US equities on the Prime book are modestly “net sold” MTD, driven by selling in single stocks outweighing buying in macro products (led by… pic.twitter.com/ZY9faWwOog
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 17, 2026

BofA: most bearish Fund Manager Survey (FMS) since Jun'25 pic.twitter.com/hdsO9mcJuC
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) April 14, 2026

#OpenAI investors question $852bn valuation as strategy shifts – FThttps://t.co/DIwqGqVLNI pic.twitter.com/4H2AjJVcEj
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 14, 2026

GPU rental rates and memory spot prices seem to be coming off their peaks. Start of a trend? pic.twitter.com/hjoR5sJjlr
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) April 17, 2026

#AI is not just a tech story — it’s a trade story

A recent paper by economist Michael Waugh highlights how AI is rapidly reshaping global trade patterns — and the implications are bigger than many expect:

AI-driven imports are booming
AI-related goods already make up… pic.twitter.com/DI8hlQdjUT
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 13, 2026

#Housing | This Spring’s Housing Market Is Unseasonably Slow As Iran War, High Costs Curb Demand – Redfinhttps://t.co/FbI0CrK2Bg pic.twitter.com/rqSR8MFezk
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 17, 2026

*Note: Previous reports can be found here

Morning Brief: Trump Signals Momentum on Iran; Short Squeeze Continues; Macron And Starmer To Hold Summit To Secure Strait Of Hormuz

Christophe Barraud — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 07:51:46 +0000

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

From Oversold to Overbought in 2 weeks https://t.co/efNqthk9Er pic.twitter.com/V06CggdVnV
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 16, 2026

Record high on negative breadth pic.twitter.com/vCE2vblzfV
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 16, 2026

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, in his ‘Macro Minute’ video update on Wednesday says retail investors were caught off guard by the SPX's quick recovery.

Many non-institutional investors are unaware of the tendency of stock markets to have "V-shaped recoveries",… https://t.co/faPeCZfATc pic.twitter.com/0dkkbLtrBe
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 16, 2026

CTAs Bought $86BN Last Week; They Have Another $70BN In The Next Five Sessions https://t.co/1GLwTx86Uo
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 17, 2026

Hedge funds were caught offside by the US stock market rally:

The US hedge fund long/short ratio has fallen below 2.0, even lower than during the 2025 April sell-off.

This is despite equities trading near record highs.

This comes as last week saw the largest net sales by… pic.twitter.com/PUZhETWGVH
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 16, 2026

Citadel's Rubner:

Positioning has reset, volatility has compressed, and flows are re-engaging, marking a meaningful shift in the underlying market backdrop.

As we move into the heart of earnings season, focus is shifting back toward fundamentals, with a more idiosyncratic,… pic.twitter.com/kLN5Wwhr9n
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 16, 2026

Wall Street banks are adding to the pressure on private credit fund managers already reeling from an exodus of investors. https://t.co/RCdcCUitrl
— Bloomberg (@business) April 16, 2026

$NFLX Q1 2026 earnings:

• Revenue $12.25B vs Est. $12.17B
• EPS $1.23 vs Est. $0.66

Q2 Guidance
• Revenue $12.57B vs Est. $12.64B

Co-Founder Reed Hastings will leave the board when his term ends. https://t.co/t2Gdjm5ukr pic.twitter.com/mIJFJCzesY
— Investing visuals (@InvestingVisual) April 16, 2026

#Anthropic rolls out Claude Opus 4.7, an AI model that is less risky than Mythos – CNBChttps://t.co/sb1oSjmhBl
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 17, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

US Industrial Production (M/M) Feb: -0.5% (est 0.1%; prev 0.2%; prevR 0.7%)
– Manufacturing (SIC) Production: -0.1% (est 0.1%; prev 0.2%; prevR 0.4%)
– Capacity Utilisation (M/M): 75.7% (est 76.3%; prev 76.3%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 16, 2026

Weekly Unemployment Claims – 4/16/26
Initial claims edge lower near 50-year lows while 4-wk avg of continuing claims falls to the least since June 2024https://t.co/bE5UXGbROX https://t.co/1A0mQZicrG pic.twitter.com/HzBctBpe86
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 16, 2026

Fertilizer soars to highest price in nearly 3 years pic.twitter.com/PSdEHVnAg7
— Barchart (@Barchart) April 16, 2026

Most under-appreciated tailwind for US economy right now is this.

US is gas abundant and export constrained. While the rest is the world saw spikes, Henry hub actually fell (@FreightAlley has pointed this out) pic.twitter.com/gfz0YPJP9E
— Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) April 15, 2026

Housing

#Housing | This Spring’s Housing Market Is Unseasonably Slow As Iran War, High Costs Curb Demand – Redfinhttps://t.co/FbI0CrK2Bg pic.twitter.com/rqSR8MFezk
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 17, 2026

Monetary Policy

New York Fed President John Williams reiterated monetary policy remains well positioned to deal with the threat of a protracted supply shock caused by war in the Middle East https://t.co/cEaeTSRdT9
— Bloomberg (@business) April 16, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

*Focus on Middle East conflict

President Trump said prospects for a deal with Iran are “looking very good” as the two sides are in discussions to extend a truce ahead of its expiration next week https://t.co/oOvCPfFw0H pic.twitter.com/b8zMzWhc58
— Bloomberg (@business) April 16, 2026

#BREAKING Trump says he will invite Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Israeli Premier Netanyahu to White House for first ‘meaningful’ talks since 1983 pic.twitter.com/ed7LB8A1OQ
— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) April 16, 2026

Trump confirms he talked to Lebanese President and Netanyahu and that a 10 day ceasefire will start at 5pm ET. He’s directed Vance and Caine to join Rubio in getting involved in Israel-Lebanon talks. pic.twitter.com/qCgQZLh7oU
— Sara Cook (@saraecook) April 16, 2026

Trump Says Iran’s Concessions Pave Way for Deal to End War
President Donald Trump said Iran has made key concessions and a deal to end the war could be announced soon, adding a ceasefire extension may be unnecessary. He cited “very successful” talks and possible weekend… pic.twitter.com/5LNdGeS2vH
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 17, 2026

House Republicans again blocked an attempt by Democrats to try to force President Donald Trump to end hostilities in Iran https://t.co/TgGBQ5HKMj
— Bloomberg (@business) April 16, 2026

Asia

Markets

#China | Bond sales by Chinese brokerages hit 652.5 billion yuan ($95.6 billion) this year through April 16, a 91.5% surge from a year earlier, the Securities Daily reported, citing third-party data.
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/fQshQuoXvz
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 17, 2026

South Korea draws back investors even as Iran war exposes cracks https://t.co/luhuKeX7Ug https://t.co/luhuKeX7Ug
— Reuters Tech News (@ReutersTech) April 17, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

China's jet fuel demand is crashing down

Lowest since Covid… down >40% in the last week year-on-year

MENA jet demand is down too …. pic.twitter.com/Dvcp8wAmQz
— Antoine Halff (@antoine_halff) April 17, 2026

Asian refiners have grown increasingly reliant on US crude as oil-starved fuel makers scour the globe to replace Middle Eastern supply and stave off shortages that could ripple through the broader economy. https://t.co/jAdZ5xeVyz
— Bloomberg (@business) April 16, 2026

The IMF cut growth forecasts for countries across the Middle East due to disruptions stemming from the Iran war and warned that a prolonged conflict could put further pressure on the region’s economies. https://t.co/AfqNQfHQFa
— Bloomberg (@business) April 16, 2026

Malaysia's economy grew 5.3% yr/yr in Q1, official advance estimate shows https://t.co/krjyvLlXoM https://t.co/krjyvLlXoM
— Reuters World (@ReutersWorld) April 17, 2026

Monetary Policy

China’s central bank is using its daily reference rate to temper the yuan’s rally as the currency’s outperformance during the Iran war fuels further bullish sentiment https://t.co/Sy0hcfRtG7
— Bloomberg (@business) April 17, 2026

#China’s tech-heavy ChiNext board will introduce a “shelf registration” system for follow-on stock offerings, giving innovative startups more flexibility to match their long-term R&D cycles, the Shanghai Securities News reported.
*Link (Chinese): https://t.co/pC2oZQ9fxL
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 17, 2026

Fiscal Policy

CHINA STATE PLANNER VICE CHAIR:
755B YUAN CENTRAL BUDGET INVESTMENT AND 1T YUAN ULTRA-LONG SPECIAL BONDS TO BE LARGELY ALLOCATED BY END-JUNE

TO ACCELERATE DEPLOYMENT OF 800B YUAN IN NEW POLICY FINANCIAL TOOLS FUNDS (https://t.co/q5xJRaAkai) pic.twitter.com/GT3kLs0uy4
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 17, 2026

Seven nuclear power reactors are scheduled to be completed and commissioned in China this year, state broadcaster CCTV reported, citing the nation’s atomic energy organization’s annual report https://t.co/oV73wP4AyF
— Bloomberg (@business) April 17, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

President Xi Jinping is wrapping up what’s been an unusually busy week of diplomacy in Beijing, showcasing the fervent interest of world leaders to develop ties with China while the US is embroiled in a conflict with Iran https://t.co/GBlwLhEL2w
— Bloomberg (@business) April 17, 2026

Europe

Markets

Oil Prices Fall Below $100 After Weeks Of Surge On US-Iran Talks Hopeshttps://t.co/Neg5FUpuUG
— ABP LIVE (@abplive) April 17, 2026

OPEC crude production collapsed by 7.88 million barrels a day in March.

This marks the steepest drop in data going back to the 1980s. pic.twitter.com/k8DIxOMS6L
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) April 16, 2026

The world is about 2" away from hitting the wall at full speed and most can't even seen it coming. Imminent energy shortages in parts of the world and for the rest, significantly higher prices. The battle for the physical barrel has begun. pic.twitter.com/vZM9sal1Cj
— Eric Nuttall (@ericnuttall) April 13, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Iran War Drives Germany Towards 4th Year Of Stagnation – FThttps://t.co/CNrpMITVEp
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 17, 2026

Europe could run out of jet fuel in 6 weeks, IEA warns https://t.co/uMQNDRyVDi
— NewsWire (@NewsWireLK) April 17, 2026

Monetary Policy

Dolenc says falling energy prices challenge the case for ECB hikes https://t.co/enf8vbgYkA via @jrandow pic.twitter.com/fkf13bigUP
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 16, 2026

ECB’s Panetta says current wars may reverse years of development https://t.co/oyIXDwCJna via @Alemrome pic.twitter.com/lpNnunDFuO
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 16, 2026

ECB To Hike Rates In June As 2026 Inflation Jumps, Survey Shows – BBGhttps://t.co/GWAGf53BEx
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 17, 2026

SNB backs measures to boost competition on cashless payments https://t.co/3s9d97ytNl via @bbenrath pic.twitter.com/7WHjec5tcz
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 16, 2026

ECB should keep options open ahead of April meeting, Nagel says https://t.co/Dd1fRDIi4l via @KowalczeKamil @jrandow pic.twitter.com/5FIQHxfeCK
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 16, 2026

ECB’s Lane doesn’t see decisive information on Iran effects https://t.co/I9ejyEV3gx via @jrandow pic.twitter.com/UqS3szd88R
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 16, 2026

Fiscal Policy

UK’s Reeves hints at spending cuts to fund defense boost https://t.co/vzEQhFIjQ6 via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/NwJG0KV5s6
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 16, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Macron And Starmer To Hold Summit On Plan To Secure Strait Of Hormuz – FThttps://t.co/zyzTLp1GHi
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 17, 2026

European Union officials are heading to Budapest on Friday for talks with Hungary’s incoming leader, Peter Magyar, with no signs the outgoing Prime Minister Orban will drop his veto over a €90 billion ($106 billion) EU loan to Ukraine. https://t.co/t2j5IgUOoz
— Bloomberg (@business) April 16, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043254026368618670

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

Morning Brief: Pentagon Steps up Plans for Potential Cuba Operations; Chinese GDP Beats Estimates; ECB Likely To Hold Rates in April

Christophe Barraud — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 09:15:01 +0000

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

Tier1Alpha says the bulk of the SPX rally can be explained by the drop in the VIX:

The VIX has fallen from 31 to 18 in the last two weeks. All else equal, that 13 point change should have led to a roughly 7% S&P rally. We've rallied 9.4% in two weeks. Oil prices have fallen,… pic.twitter.com/la7ODlkyi4
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 15, 2026

BREAKING: US call option volumes have surged to 47 million contracts per day, the 2nd-highest reading this year.

Call volume has surged +75% since the beginning of the month.

At the same time, put option volume has declined -15%, to 32 million contracts per day.

Yesterday,… pic.twitter.com/7sttFDsepA
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 15, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/MTSInsights/status/2044396759368044878

US import prices jumped 0.8% in March while export prices surged 1.6%, powered by oil, industrial materials, and agriculture. Year over year, exports are now up 5.6%, the sharpest climb since late 2022. Everyone talking about “stability” is ignoring how fast price pressure is… pic.twitter.com/vlnDgKnwLC
— Solix Trading (@Solix_Trade) April 15, 2026

BofA Sees Customer Gas Spending Jump 16%, But Discretionary Spending Holds Up https://t.co/scb0NTPyyE
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 15, 2026

Housing

US homebuilders’ confidence fell to a seven-month low in April as the Iran war pushed up mortgage rates and materials costs at the start of the spring selling season. https://t.co/9ilSXPyRJh
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

Monetary Policy

Fed's Hammack: Rates likely on hold 'for a good while' – CNBC https://t.co/b5Xv8Ejw8w https://t.co/b5Xv8Ejw8w
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 15, 2026

Rate Setters Face ‘Double Danger’ From Iran War And Tariffs, Federal Reserve Official Warns – FThttps://t.co/g0SocqJEWY
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 15, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Tax Day arrived with many Americans seeing bigger refunds on average, even as a growing share say the change doesn’t feel like meaningful relief amid rising costs.https://t.co/e2ALkFbmNK
— CBS Austin (@cbsaustin) April 16, 2026

President Donald Trump urged Republicans in Congress to pursue a “slim” spending bill in Congress focused on funding immigration enforcement https://t.co/4RhZDLVFUO
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US sent letters to two Chinese banks warning them of the risk of secondary sanctions if they are found to be supporting transactions tied to Iran. https://t.co/1q3g82CysP
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

Trump will head to Beijing amid warming trend in sentiment about China at home https://t.co/QTc1QjxNzZ
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) April 15, 2026

Pentagon is 'ramping up' planning for 'possible' military operation in Cuba, according to a report on Wednesday https://t.co/wvc7xOpldT pic.twitter.com/XAHPaqOf9I
— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) April 15, 2026

*Focus on Middle East conflict

The US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension https://t.co/GaXrQn5gij
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

Senior Iranian Official To RTRS: There Are Greater Hopes For Extending The Ceasefire And Holding A Second Round Of Talks
– Pakistani Army Chief’s Trip To Iran Helped Reduce Differences In Some Areas
– Fundamental Disagreements Remain Over Nuclear Issues
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 16, 2026

Asia

Markets

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average is headed for a record high close that would erase its losses from the Iran war on optimism the new peace talks may hasten the end to the conflict https://t.co/zKrEpgS7oJ
— Bloomberg (@business) April 16, 2026

https://twitter.com/wallstengine/status/2044656537290121288

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044645493993578587

CHINA STATS BUREAU DEPUTY HEAD: DAILY TOKEN USAGE EXCEEDS 140 TRILLION, UP 40% FROM END OF LAST YEAR#CHINA #TECH #AI #LLM #ZHIPU #MINIMAX #ALIBABA $BABA (https://t.co/d4lqydeDPW) pic.twitter.com/2nf6yHJ7Yu
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 16, 2026

Australian employment increased by 17,900 jobs in March following a gain of an upwardly revised 49,700 workers in February. The unemployment rate held at 4.3 per cent.

Follow live: https://t.co/JouXlB2Ek6 pic.twitter.com/laYwArT65b
— Financial Review (@FinancialReview) April 16, 2026

Housing

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044645751007985907

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2044613807822287261

Monetary Policy

Clear communication from the Bank of Japan will be even more important as uncertainty remains high amid ongoing Middle East tensions, the International Monetary Fund's chief liaison for the country said. https://t.co/Vu56z4LjBj
— The Japan Times (@japantimes) April 16, 2026

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that she had close discussions on foreign exchange issues with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Wednesday and that she will be seeing him again when he visits Japan. https://t.co/XuDi50hZaj
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

#Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Thursday that China and the #US are maintaining communication on US President Donald #Trump’s visit to China. Guo’s statement came in response to a question regarding remarks by President Trump in an interview aired… pic.twitter.com/S80Mu6XCEH
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) April 16, 2026

Europe

Markets

One of Europe’s stock market pillars is crumbling as a selloff in its world-leading luxury sector deepens on signs that the Middle East war will delay a recovery in high-end spending https://t.co/uxZ5PSxLE6
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044340886180352183

Eurozone CPI (Y/Y) Mar F: 2.6% (est 2.5%; prev 2.5%)
– CPI Core (Y/Y): 2.3% (est 2.3%; prev 2.3%)
– CPI (M/M): 1.3% (est 1.2; prev 1.2%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 16, 2026

Commenting on today’s GDP figures for the three months to February 2026, ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner said pic.twitter.com/Z2XZqSnRkU
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) April 16, 2026

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044647230179582073

The euro-zone economy has shifted beyond the European Central Bank’s base case and toward a more painful outcome due to the Iran war, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel. https://t.co/JNMVzj7Ctc
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044436910639120476

SNB Publishes Minutes Of March 19 Rate Decision – Full Reporthttps://t.co/fgZrxJB2Yw
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 16, 2026

BOE’s Greene says traders were right to trim rate hike bets https://t.co/TDPziGklgr via @irinaanghel12 @flacqua pic.twitter.com/UsKWcSk4T7
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 16, 2026

Bailey says the BOE is in no rush to raise interest rates https://t.co/sRlVcO2gnl via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/b3RMDYFimy
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 16, 2026

Fiscal Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044378581304791058

The European Union will allow member states more flexibility to subsidize fuel and fertilizer prices to soften the impact of the price shock from the Iran war https://t.co/JdjLJcs2r7
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

UK Sends 120,000 UAVs to Ukraine in Largest Drone Package of the War pic.twitter.com/yLQvo0cYX9
— Army Recognition (@ArmyRecognition) April 16, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043254026368618670

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

Morning Brief: Anthropic’s Quiet Ascent; Nvidia’s New AI Models; U.S., Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks

Christophe Barraud — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 08:24:13 +0000

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044044908294447407

"The Largest In Over A Decade": CTAs Unleash Historic Buying Spree https://t.co/OgKdGRFWng
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 14, 2026

GS notes that despite the market rebound, secular growth stocks are still 20% below their October highs:

"Despite the recent market rebound, the share prices of secular growth stocks remain more than 20% below their October highs. We define secular growth stocks as S&P 500… pic.twitter.com/kCeLalYNEI
— Negligible Capital (@negligible_cap) April 14, 2026

#NVIDIA Launches Ising, the World’s First Open #AI Models to Accelerate the Path to Useful #Quantum Computers – Statementhttps://t.co/ZsEVMwrfXg
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 15, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044281359967895983

Anthropic quietly built an enterprise juggernaut.

From $1.5B to $30B reported annual revenue run rate in less than 12 months. pic.twitter.com/vWsf6kAvRC
— App Economy Insights (@EconomyApp) April 8, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044280048249671841

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043907969801216152

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044280171411243176

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Retail gasoline and diesel prices in the US are at their highest seasonal levels ever, a pain point for consumers looking ahead to summer travel https://t.co/X8c7n47igc
— Bloomberg (@business) April 14, 2026

Monetary Policy

Warsh’s confirmation as Trump’s next Fed chair risks delay https://t.co/ZpXG9bwO9k
— FT for Schools (@ft4s) April 10, 2026

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said interest-rate cuts may be pushed back by the surge in energy prices due to the Iran War.

Goolsbee spoke Tuesday at the Semafor World Economy Summit https://t.co/IkV8RFrHmg pic.twitter.com/CZvPPXWKuw
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) April 14, 2026

Fiscal Policy

BoA: We are just two weeks away from the tax filing deadline on April 15. Checking in on the data, refunds are up 13% y/y (+$27bn), tracking below our expectations for a 25% y/y increase.

Lower tax payments can help explain the smaller increase in refunds to date as they are… pic.twitter.com/4wJWeTiOGV
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 9, 2026

US set to launch tariff refund system on April 20 https://t.co/K1PySN90Hw https://t.co/K1PySN90Hw
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 14, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic, pushed back on Pope Leo XIV’s criticism of the war on Iran, saying the pontiff’s remarks were not based in theological truth and that he should be “careful” with his words on the matter https://t.co/wF8ptRqC2l
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

https://twitter.com/nelsondordelly/status/2044163767731114332

*Focus on Middle East conflict

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/2044129643406528601

Trump says Iran war is over as Vance prepares for second round of peace talks in Pakistan https://t.co/bn0lqLRrPq
— Daily Mail US (@Daily_MailUS) April 14, 2026

The Trump administration will allow a waiver temporarily authorizing the purchase of certain Iranian crude oil to expire this weekend, according to a White House official. https://t.co/wUPaeTphDB
— Bloomberg (@business) April 14, 2026

Israel hails Lebanon talks despite slim odds of breakthrough https://t.co/alHf1vTvt9
— The Edge Singapore (@readtheedge_sg) April 14, 2026

Diplomatic Shock in Washington: Israel and Lebanon Hold First Direct Talks In Decades

In a rare and historic moment, Israel and Lebanon are reportedly engaged in direct talks in Washington for the first time since 1983, with U.S. Senator Marco Rubio present as two ambassadors… pic.twitter.com/vLqbCzfcFr
— Washington Eye (@washington_EY) April 14, 2026

Asia

Markets

Chinese Shares Erase Iran War Losses on Economic Resilience – Bloomberghttps://t.co/q2ZHOpei3d pic.twitter.com/Mcl0vhlawp
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 15, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044285594671423553

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2044275564136092071

Private credit funds attract Japan investors, more than doubling in 1 year https://t.co/QQVA1jOONk
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) April 14, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

China’s data center operators are tapping a fast-growing asset-backed security market, raising more than a billion dollars from investors hungry for higher yields https://t.co/D0yRWhnyjW
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

China snaps up US chip tools via Southeast Asia amid supply chain shift https://t.co/eGNV4Mzf2s
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) April 15, 2026

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/2044328369773298081

Japan manufacturers' confidence dips most in three years on Middle East concerns https://t.co/hL3vlitDGd
— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) April 15, 2026

Monetary Policy

BOJ Is Said to Mull Raising Price Outlook Sharply on Oil

Bank of Japan officials are likely to consider raising their inflation forecast sharply at their policy meeting this month, mainly to reflect elevated oil prices, according to people familiar with the matter.

The BOJ’s… pic.twitter.com/TPvi7NNyr2
— Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) April 14, 2026

https://twitter.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/2044192729861627929

Fiscal Policy

China is planning to issue the largest yuan sovereign bonds in Hong Kong since 2023 this month, increasing supply to global investors just as yuan assets stand out as a haven amid the Iran war https://t.co/yUUNvSkwK0
— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

China Weighs Curbs on Solar Equipment Exports to U.S.
China is holding initial talks with solar equipment makers on potentially restricting exports of advanced panel manufacturing technology to the U.S., according to sources, though no rules have been finalized. The move… pic.twitter.com/mFxRfqaYJY
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 15, 2026

Video: Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday put forward a four-point proposal on promoting peace and stability in the Middle East, when meeting with Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in Beijing: Xinhua (Video: CCTV… pic.twitter.com/i7Zd5SNPft
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) April 14, 2026

#Japan plans to release around 36 million barrels from its national oil reserves from early May, with contracts with refiners expected to be set by the end of April, a senior official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said on Wednesday. #oott…
— Giovanni Staunovo (@staunovo) April 15, 2026

Europe

Markets

Chip giant ASML raises 2026 guidance as AI semiconductor demand stays strong – CNBChttps://t.co/i86AO3teEy
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 15, 2026

Renault says it will cut up to 20% of its engineering roles over two years to stay competitive, with no forced layoffs plannedhttps://t.co/2epl6o8YOb
— Daily Sabah (@DailySabah) April 15, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

A notable aspect of IMF forecasts is the disconnect between officials’ warnings about the economic impact of conflict and the lack of adjustment in their GDP estimates

Global Economy in the Shadow of War – IMFhttps://t.co/TCAQaTqMFu pic.twitter.com/bXnLmbf4AG
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 14, 2026

France’s Lescure says the economic impact from the Iran war is moderate for now https://t.co/hUDRHnjPtG via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/fRjzKgdDjb
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 9, 2026

My proxies and regional data suggest #Eurozone industrial production (February) should surprise upward

*Bloomberg consensus:
MoM: +0.3%e v -1.5% prior
WDA YoY: -1.0%e v -1.1% prior
— Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) April 15, 2026

Monetary Policy

President Christine Lagarde said higher energy costs have pushed the euro zone away from the European Central Bank’s base-case outlook, though not enough yet to warrant leaning toward raising interest rates https://t.co/lnGu0SzXUK pic.twitter.com/0V7aGQKQih
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) April 14, 2026

Lagarde, worried about AI, lauds Anthropic’s approach on Mythos https://t.co/xNmIKwAFFb via @flacqua @CraigStirling pic.twitter.com/id415uyiYL
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 14, 2026

ECB’s Rehn says inflation to quicken but rate path isn’t locked in https://t.co/7RTrVGdTLV via @NickHeubeck pic.twitter.com/TJmYD0bUBM
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 14, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Germany unveils cost-cutting revamp as healthcare spending soars https://t.co/nj78Z06CGv via @KowalczeKamil pic.twitter.com/Io4BoYGf5k
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 14, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Meloni gives up on courting Trump as she seeks to gain favor with Italians https://t.co/3ACj9ch71s via @donatopmancini pic.twitter.com/XZgA31C2R9
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 14, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043254026368618670

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

Morning Brief: U.S. and Iran Weigh New Talks; China’s Export Engine Stumbles; Germany Agrees on €1.6 billion in Fuel-Cost Relief Package

Christophe Barraud — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 10:49:20 +0000

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

The S&P 500 rallied to erase all of its losses since the start of the Iran war https://t.co/JTuDx7gvOe
— Bloomberg (@business) April 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043907969801216152

Goldman: US Info Tech saw the largest $ net selling in more than five years (-2.9 SDs 1-year, second largest in % terms behind Sep ‘24), driven by short sales and to a much lesser extent long sales (3.3 to 1).

Nearly all Tech subsectors were net sold on the week, led by selling… pic.twitter.com/BjKf5yOp4p
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/2043595028162081080

Microsoft raised prices sharply across its Surface-branded device lineup, becoming the latest personal computer maker to pass along costs fueled by a historic memory chip shortage https://t.co/po1oboToH0
— Bloomberg (@business) April 13, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043699290179010612

Housing

U.S. existing home sales dropped to a nine-month low in March due to tight inventory and rising mortgage rates, impacting housing affordability. https://t.co/L70c0bdjpf pic.twitter.com/v0j9vq9i56
— Virginia Business (@VirginiaBiz) April 13, 2026

Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said the energy shock triggered by the Iran war has yet to impact longer-run inflation expectations, and he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target in a year’s time https://t.co/YXdXqYIRKV
— Bloomberg (@business) April 13, 2026

Wall Street Expects a Cautious Fed as T-Bill Purchases Wind Down Wall Street strategists expect the Federal Reserve to take a slow and careful approach to winding down a program meant to help ease pressure in funding markets. pic.twitter.com/kKKAQhZhob
— Review Trading (@ReviewTrading11) April 13, 2026

Total net income from the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account is expected to turn positive in 2026, according to projections from the New York Fed released Monday. https://t.co/5pipyCtzwB
— Bloomberg (@business) April 13, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

*Focus on Middle East conflict

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043906432337068333

The United States and Iran may return to the negotiating table as early as this week

A new round is being discussed in Pakistan, though the location could still change.

Previous talks ended without results. The main deadlock is Iran’s nuclear program.

According to media… pic.twitter.com/Uaettd5NNt
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 14, 2026

Iran Proposes Suspendidng Nuclear Activity For Up 5 Years – NYThttps://t.co/Rbpg52ci2d
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 14, 2026

Trump says any Iranian ships that are close to the blockade “will be immediately eliminated.” pic.twitter.com/kq0iyosle3
— Annmarie Hordern (@annmarie) April 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043985102376464400

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043921596423741848

Israel presses assault on Lebanon border town ahead of US-hosted talks https://t.co/sdBsm80DOS https://t.co/sdBsm80DOS
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 14, 2026

Asia

Markets

Japan’s 20-year government bond auction drew its strongest demand since 2019 as elevated yields attracted investors despite the continuing conflict in the Middle East https://t.co/tfZdXJF64s
— Bloomberg (@business) April 14, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043910696224571615

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043908727347007535

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043922265746624566

Australia's corporates are starting to count the cost of the war in the Middle East, with profit warnings from two top companies and a crash in business sentiment pointing to pain from rising prices, raising the risk of stagflation. More here: https://t.co/GmDIurdJco
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) April 14, 2026

Housing

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043916366118338977

Evergrande Founder Xu Jiayin Trial Begins; Verdict Pending
China’s Shenzhen Intermediate People’s Court held a public trial on April 13–14 for cases involving China Evergrande Group, Evergrande Real Estate Group and founder Xu Jiayin, according to CCTV.
Prosecutors charged the… pic.twitter.com/IFSMKWeeW0
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 14, 2026

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043982940363702691

RBA'S HAUSER: CENTRAL BANK "NIGHTMARE" IS RISING INFLATION COUPLED WITH FALLING ACTIVITY || ENERGY-PRICE EFFECT ON ACTIVITY A MAJOR CONCERN; DOES NOT WANT MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS TO CLIMB
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) April 13, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

China flexes trade power with soaring use of export controls https://t.co/4PnhMhyD4a
— FT China (@ftchina) April 14, 2026

Vietnam's party chief and newly appointed president, To Lam, is set to meet Xi Jinping in China this week, seeking to shore up energy security as the war in Iran raises global supply risks. https://t.co/TsQnuSqTRP
— The Japan Times (@japantimes) April 14, 2026

Philippine, US military drills to facilitate closer relations with Japan https://t.co/0C3jDTu1Kl
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) April 14, 2026

Europe

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043718579594346635

Sales at LVMH’s biggest division fell at the start of this year as the war in the Middle East crimped demand for Louis Vuitton and Dior products, despite signs of improvement in China https://t.co/NpkDbH5AxP
— Bloomberg (@business) April 13, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Britain faces another lost year for living standards due to Iran war https://t.co/MuGg4NBJB6 via @tomelleryrees pic.twitter.com/nPivyrmAQc
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 13, 2026

Monetary Policy

ECB’s Rehn says inflation to quicken but rate path isn’t locked in https://t.co/7RTrVGdTLV via @NickHeubeck pic.twitter.com/TJmYD0bUBM
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 14, 2026

Villeroy Warns French Firms Will Double Price Hikes

Francois Villeroy de Galhau declared on April 13, 2026, that a sudden surge in corporate pricing strategies requires immediate attention from monetary authorities.https://t.co/Nffz1yzxzH
— ETUD (@etudnet) April 13, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Germany agrees on €1.6 billion in fuel-cost relief package https://t.co/nMBmzMLXX8 via @mcnienaber @petrasorge pic.twitter.com/n8noouo5u3
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 13, 2026

EU to recommend lower energy taxes to offset surging oil and gas https://t.co/3SxSCXMI65 via @E_Krukowska pic.twitter.com/2tyjp2mEz1
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 13, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Danish leader focuses on a broad coalition in 4th week of talks https://t.co/SMeQyPX8YB via @sanne_wass pic.twitter.com/dlw5e45blY
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 13, 2026

Spanish Premier Pedro Sanchez’s wife is charged with corruption https://t.co/K4T7IEMMKK via @Thomgua pic.twitter.com/q5sQCCgz7r
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 13, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043254026368618670

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

Morning Brief: U.S.–Iran Talks Collapse as Maritime Standoff Looms; Focus on Positioning; Hungary Turns the Page with Magyar’s Victory

Christophe Barraud — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:32:22 +0000

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

Wall Street is debuting a new product that will give investors a way to wager against private credit. https://t.co/siZJNw58F7
— Bloomberg (@business) April 10, 2026

The six largest US banks are expected to issue fewer bonds this quarter after the busiest start of a year on record. https://t.co/aoz6XxtbyZ
— Bloomberg (@business) April 10, 2026

*Positioning

Stunning charts from GS — big extremes here: pic.twitter.com/jW6ygHdmfC
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) April 10, 2026

CTAs were buying this week. pic.twitter.com/CIpdGfQouy
— Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) April 10, 2026

And with the VIX now sub-20, Nomura's McElligott says we should see "Vol Target overlays reallocating
into Equities risk" https://t.co/Mk1Pj3Txn3 pic.twitter.com/eTJeuqFdAn
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 10, 2026

Hedge funds are unwinding their short exposure:

Hedge fund short positions in US macro products, including index futures and ETFs, are down -1.0 percentage point over the last 2 days, to 11.2%, the lowest since the beginning of March.

This comes as US-listed ETF shorts fell… pic.twitter.com/Xtg2oWxnCO
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 10, 2026

https://twitter.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/2042567088225554574?s=20

DB: Our measure of equity positioning has begun to move up but is still underweight (-0.33sd, 27th percentile).

Discretionary investor positioning rose but remained underweight (-0.30sd, 28th percentile), as did systematic strategies’ positioning (-0.40sd, 26th percentile). pic.twitter.com/soswPNN1dE
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 12, 2026

*Focus on Earnings

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043205025762025885

#earnings for the week of April 13, 2026 https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY $NFLX $TSM $GS $JPM $ASML $BLK $MS $BAC $C $KMX $FAST $AA $JNJ $SCHW $SIFY $SLG $JBHT $PGR $FITB $FBK $BK $PLD $NKLR $PEP $SURG $TFC $RF $WFC $SFNC $TRV $PNC $MTB $HOVR $CFG $CNS $ABT $ALLY $HOFT $LAKE $MAMA… pic.twitter.com/JFbFzQdWcB
— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) April 10, 2026

I had mentioned in the Week Ahead (https://t.co/DngvzoOV8w) that "next 12-month earnings revisions were positive in the week through March 27th for a 10th straight week" (first chart), and in that regard Jefferies notes (via the @dailychartbook nightly email from ZeroHedge) that… https://t.co/bATQMjLLbw pic.twitter.com/HC5UyqhtEK
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 10, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043203120029647220

MarketWatch: First-quarter earnings growth is expected to come in at 16%, a four-year high, according to Deutsche Bank strategists led by Binky Chadha.

In the last two decades, the consensus has been this strong only three times: during the recovery from deep slumps from the… pic.twitter.com/zXQEBu2CJP
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 10, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/2042792823456403877

Breaking news: US inflation rose to 3.3% in March, the highest since May 2024, as the surge in energy prices triggered by the Iran war ricocheted across the world’s biggest economy. https://t.co/PnsI4lfTaw pic.twitter.com/ZNVLdpDKoN
— Financial Times (@FT) April 10, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043209930673435037

The market doesn't seem to understand just how bad it is: only a fraction of the projected AI capex will actually be spent if these bottlenecks aren't fixed. And CapEx is all that is holding up earnings growth https://t.co/sK9JpqiE4r pic.twitter.com/vX4Fht66c1
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 13, 2026

Canada adds 14,000 jobs in March, keeping unemployment rate at 6.7% https://t.co/0Bktx8luMm
— Toronto Star (@TorontoStar) April 10, 2026

Monetary Policy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042840584205828399

In a recent Liberty Street Economics post, the authors find that both an increase in IORB or a decrease in Fed liabilities raises the liquidity risk premium, driving up the cost of intermediating funding. Their results suggest that the Fed can manage how financing conditions are… pic.twitter.com/Ac4NrvRMt9
— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) April 10, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

*Focus on Middle East conflict

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043188833043321293

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043547179315343430

#OOTT | UK Won’t Take Part In Trump’s Planned Blockade Of Hormuz Strait – BBGhttps://t.co/SQHm9SyD7n
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 12, 2026

WSJ on officials: A new round of talks between Iran and America may be held in days https://t.co/N1zZAmQBlG
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 12, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043550249378005129

The Khor Mor gas field is up and running again #KRG pic.twitter.com/GwhQWw1NLm
— Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) April 13, 2026

Asia

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043550455083475000

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043550679382323711

Economic Indicators and Prospects

A farmer in Western Australia was playing sports with colleagues when news of the Iran war broke. Minutes later they were on their phones, scrambling to secure fuel.

Read how surging fuel and fertilizer costs are forcing tough crop decisions and raising the risk of higher food… pic.twitter.com/lwXo8eT9je
— Bloomberg (@business) April 11, 2026

Asian LNG Imports Plummet to Six-Year Low on Middle East Crisis Asian liquefied natural gas imports have dropped to the lowest in almost six years as the conflict in the Middle East chokes supplies and forces buyers to curb consumption. pic.twitter.com/hIq623Cr3K
— Review Trading (@ReviewTrading11) April 13, 2026

Almost half of Australians approaching retirement fear running out of money and lack confidence managing their finances once they stop working, according to new research from the corporate regulator. https://t.co/5NlwOlH3Kv
— Bloomberg (@business) April 13, 2026

Monetary Policy

BoJ’s Usual Stance Amid Uncertainty Is To Hold, Ex-Official Says – BBGhttps://t.co/EtJOOa6Url
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 13, 2026

Protracted Iran war narrows BOJ's rate hike options https://t.co/Rphtm11OwD https://t.co/Rphtm11OwD
— Reuters (@Reuters) April 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2043490701242171896

Fiscal Policy

Japan approves additional $4bn in support for Rapidus

Government seeks to ensure stable supplies of semiconductorshttps://t.co/HMbHUq3J1e
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) April 12, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Japan will work closely with Asian countries where essential petroleum-based products including medical equipment are produced, economy minister Ryosei Akazawa said in a Sunday debate program on broadcaster NHK https://t.co/6EOlFhA2f7
— Bloomberg (@business) April 12, 2026

Japan To Welcome 30 NATO Envoys As Trump Rattles US Allies – SCMPhttps://t.co/w92kaA2qSM
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 13, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043208213554663437

China’s President Xi Jinping welcomed the leader of Taiwan’s biggest opposition party to a landmark meeting, reaffirming Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over the self-governing democracy and giving a thinly veiled warning against interference from the US https://t.co/ZDpO1QzJwQ pic.twitter.com/6pHWtnYGMa
— Bloomberg (@business) April 10, 2026

India raises export duties on diesel, aviation turbine fuel https://t.co/g6JaCWdS7v
— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) April 11, 2026

Europe

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043590349008801919

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043591108089803189

A panicked race for barrels is gripping the global oil market https://t.co/BFDckZshjd via @yongchang_chin @Bill_Lehane pic.twitter.com/TY5ixVnnec
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 12, 2026

Each news is even more important: European gas prices just spiked 18% after the U.S. plans to blockade the #StraitOfHormuz. TTF futures surged to €51.30 per MWh before stabilizing at €49.45 in Singapore trading. The jump comes as weekend U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan collapsed… pic.twitter.com/85GavdKQTZ
— Kyrylo Shevchenko (@KShevchenkoReal) April 13, 2026

Copper Falls, Aluminum Spreads Spike as US Plans Hormuz Blockade#Copper declined and a key #aluminum spread widened as US President Donald Trump’s pledge to blockade the Strait of Hormuz increased uncertainty across metals markets already pressured by a six-week Middle East… pic.twitter.com/HOvhle22aj
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 13, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Global economic outlook darkens as policymakers count cost of Iran war https://t.co/sjBJf7lKxi
— Financial Times (@FT) April 12, 2026

Global prices will take time to come down to levels seen before the US-Israeli war with Iran even if a ceasefire holds, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. https://t.co/revssRU3Dq
— Bloomberg (@business) April 12, 2026

Monetary Policy

The Bank of England plans to discuss the impact of Anthropic’s new AI model with financial institutions, as UK regulators join their peers in the US and elsewhere in raising alarms over the risks posed by the tool, a person familiar said. https://t.co/3EDbY27O6N
— Bloomberg (@business) April 11, 2026

Fiscal Policy

France’s elections risk stalling budget repair, Moody’s says https://t.co/sfD8IRlU1F via @WHorobin pic.twitter.com/OgYGgUyMFd
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 12, 2026

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said the government will divert investment to help households and businesses switch to electric power instead of handing out short-term fuel aid after oil prices surged on the Iran war. https://t.co/HS368IhNLy
— Bloomberg (@business) April 10, 2026

https://twitter.com/bfmbusiness/status/2042636764758634535

Starmer plots higher UK defense spending in a bid to save his job https://t.co/sruQIsTas6 via @alexwickham @EllenAMilligan pic.twitter.com/1QBQPM7jlq
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 11, 2026

Merz’s German coalition tussles over billions in fuel price aid https://t.co/Rqo0UIlYBR via @KowalczeKamil @mcnienaber pic.twitter.com/uykRJjumy7
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 10, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Two years ago, Peter Magyar declared that he was resigning from his state job in protest against a system that, he said, had made families around Prime Minister Viktor Orban rich at the expense of other Hungarians. Now he's on the brink of ending the regime.

Read more about the… pic.twitter.com/kJ051I3YOo
— Bloomberg (@business) April 12, 2026

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez began his trip to China on Monday by calling on Beijing to leverage its influence internationally and help bring the wars in Iran and Ukraine to an end https://t.co/EhVPHOvKgM
— Bloomberg (@business) April 13, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043254026368618670

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here

Week Ahead: IMF Outlook; Fed Beige Book; ECB and SNB Minutes; Chinese GDP; Hungary Election’s Results; U.S. Earnings Season

Christophe Barraud — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 08:56:05 +0000

From the IMF Economic Outlook update to the Fed Beige Book to Wall Street bank earnings, here’s what you need to know about the week ahead.

Monday

Spring meetings of International Monetary Fund and World Bank, along with various related events, are held in Washington. Through April 18 – Bloomberg

India March CPI

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the Trust Companies Conference – Bloomberg

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser participates in a fireside chat at the Money Marketeers of New York University – Bloomberg

Hungary election’s results

Markets in several Eastern European countries are closed for the Orthodox Easter holiday – Bloomberg

OPEC monthly oil market report – Bloomberg

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at an event in Madrid – Bloomberg

Remarks by BOE rate-setter Alan Taylor given at the PSE–BdF Conference on International Macroeconomics in Historical Perspective published – Bloomberg

U.S. March existing home sales

Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington – Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs kicks off the Wall Street quarterly earnings rush, with trading revenue and credit conditions in focus amid geopolitical tensions – Bloomberg

LVMH and Christian Dior sales figures may highlight tough times in the European luxury segment – Bloomberg

Tuesday

The IMF publishes its world economic outlook and global financial stability report – Bloomberg

Two of the world’s last communist party bosses meet as Vietnam’s To Lam flies to China on the invitation of Xi Jinping – Nikkei

Australia April Westpac consumer confidence

Australia March NAB business confidence

China March trade data

ECB President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf speak at events in Washington – Bloomberg

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks at University of Virginia – Bloomberg

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at Columbia Univerisity in New York. Rate-setter Catherine Mann speaks at the Aon Insights Series in London, and colleague Megan Greene speaks at the Atlantic Council in Washington – Bloomberg

U.S. March NFIB small business optimism

U.S. ADP weekly employment change

U.S. March PPI

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at Semafor World Economy in Washington – Bloomberg

Fed Governor Michael Barr along with regional Fed Presidents Tom Barkin, Susan Collins and Anna Paulson participate in a fireside chat on “Strengthening America’s Economy Through Rural Investment” at a Fed forum – Bloomberg

U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks at a Turning Point USA tour stop in Georgia – Bloomberg

JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo earnings

Wednesday

The IMF publishes its fiscal monitor, and Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing – Bloomberg

India March trade data

Eurozone February industrial production

Executive Board member Piero Cipollone also speaks in Washington – Bloomberg

ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Semafor World Economy and separately at an Atlantic Council event in Washington – Bloomberg

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks on an IIF panel in Washington with South African Central Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago and others – Bloomberg

ECB Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá, Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel and Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee speak at a Peterson Institute event in Washington – Bloomberg

U.S. April Empire State manufacturing

U.S. March import and export price indexes

U.S. April NAHB Housing market index

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speak at the IIF Global Outlook Forum in Washington – Bloomberg

Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks at the Just Economy conference in Washington – Bloomberg

Fed Beige Book

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings

Deadline to file 2025 US tax returns – Bloomberg

Thursday

Australia March employment report

China Q1 GDP

China March retail sales, industrial production and FAI

RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter participates in a panel at IMF–World Bank spring meetings – Bloomberg

Eurozone March CPI (final estimate)

U.K. February industrial production

U.K. February trade data

U.K. February monthly GDP

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at a Peterson Institute event in Washington – Bloomberg

ECB Governing Council members Martins Kazaks and Ollie Rehn and chief economist Philip Lane also speak – Bloomberg

ECB Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Dimitar Radev speak at an Atlantic Council event – Bloomberg

ECB minutes

BOE rate-setter Alan Taylor participates in a panel hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics – Bloomberg

Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Petra Tschudin speaks at a money market event in Zurich – Bloomberg

SNB minutes

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims

U.S. March industrial production

Canada March existing home sales

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington – Bloomberg

New York Fed President John Williams gives keynote remarks at the Metropolitan Club – Bloomberg

Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation on global macroeconomics at the Washington Economic Festival – Bloomberg

TSMC, Netflix earnings

Friday

The IMF’s international monetary and financial committee meets in Washington – Bloomberg

Eurozone February trade balance

Remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden given in Washington published – Bloomberg

BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at Barclays breakfast roundtable in Washington – Bloomberg

Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook at Auburn University – Bloomberg

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin delivers a keynote address at the Citadel Directors Institute – Bloomberg

Indian banking heavyweights HDFC and ICICI are set to report their earnings as the wider sector recovers from a slate of controversies in recent weeks – Nikkei

Earnings

#earnings for the week of April 13, 2026 https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY $NFLX $TSM $GS $JPM $ASML $BLK $MS $BAC $C $KMX $FAST $AA $JNJ $SCHW $SIFY $SLG $JBHT $PGR $FITB $FBK $BK $PLD $NKLR $PEP $SURG $TFC $RF $WFC $SFNC $TRV $PNC $MTB $HOVR $CFG $CNS $ABT $ALLY $HOFT $LAKE $MAMA… pic.twitter.com/JFbFzQdWcB
— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) April 10, 2026

Q1 reporting season kicks off next week, led by the major banks on Tuesday. We'll see it quickly ramp up with 1,100+ companies reporting for the week of the 20th, and 2,500+ reporting for the week of the 27th. Watch for: $AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $TSM, $LLY, $TSLA, $CVX,… pic.twitter.com/dOj1Insccy
— Wall Street Horizon (@WallStHorizon) April 10, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043203120029647220

MarketWatch: First-quarter earnings growth is expected to come in at 16%, a four-year high, according to Deutsche Bank strategists led by Binky Chadha.

In the last two decades, the consensus has been this strong only three times: during the recovery from deep slumps from the… pic.twitter.com/zXQEBu2CJP
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 10, 2026

Previews

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043249929238249962

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043232968404066600

*Focus on Asia

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043228966916333891

*Focus on Europe

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043193263490761140

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043233524631605496

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043233218086752499

Focus on U.S. Economic Calendar

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043205025762025885

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Previous Week – w15

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042845611188224307

What Happened in the World Economy Last Week – in Charts – w15 (Bloomberg)

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2043192394846224720

*Note: Previous reports can be found here

Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w15 (2026)

Christophe Barraud — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 05:53:15 +0000

Find here the top 10 charts of the week, published on Twitter, that attracted attention among the macroeconomic and/or financial community.

Stunning charts from GS — big extremes here: pic.twitter.com/jW6ygHdmfC
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) April 10, 2026

CTAs were buying this week. pic.twitter.com/CIpdGfQouy
— Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) April 10, 2026

And with the VIX now sub-20, Nomura's McElligott says we should see "Vol Target overlays reallocating
into Equities risk" https://t.co/Mk1Pj3Txn3 pic.twitter.com/eTJeuqFdAn
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) April 10, 2026

Hedge funds are unwinding their short exposure:

Hedge fund short positions in US macro products, including index futures and ETFs, are down -1.0 percentage point over the last 2 days, to 11.2%, the lowest since the beginning of March.

This comes as US-listed ETF shorts fell… pic.twitter.com/Xtg2oWxnCO
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 10, 2026

https://twitter.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/2042567088225554574

On a relatively normal 9% mild pullback we saw fear levels consistent with bear markets and 100-year pandemics.

Amazing chart from @MacroCharts that shows the spike in money markets and cash like ETFs hit some truly extreme levels recently. pic.twitter.com/dS2yJz8rLA
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) April 10, 2026

Just a reminder that core PCE inflation is above the Fed's target solely because of tariffs. Core goods inflation is high; housing and core services ex-housing are now normal and mandate-consistent. pic.twitter.com/Ipa9wffwQm
— Jonathan LaBerge (@JLaBergeBCA) April 9, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042467129262322036

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042455400935547203

Labor force growth could be near-zero starting this year, due to weak population growth and declining labor force participation. Such weak growth is unprecedented in the United States’ recent history. This has significant economic implications: (1/2) https://t.co/NJfZcHebcn pic.twitter.com/5P8XQpJupZ
— FedResearch (@FedResearch) April 2, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042250674092540394

*Note: Previous reports can be found here

Morning Brief: Ceasefire on Paper, Conflict in Practice; Fed Reduction in T-Bill Purchases Will Be Gradual; German IP Missed Estimates

Christophe Barraud — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:05:59 +0000

Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news — released on Twitter — concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.

Americas

Markets

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042102963074691434

The Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of expected stock-market turbulence over the next month, tumbled after President Donald Trump agreed to a temporary ceasefire in his war against Iran https://t.co/VfLHajQ0lo
— Bloomberg (@business) April 8, 2026

“Insurers’ $1 Trillion Buildup in Private Credit Is Leaving Regulators in the Dust”

“…These state regulators’ duties grew more complex as private-equity managers started snapping up life and annuity insurers and began moving their insurance money into private-credit… https://t.co/cvyDkXFLHT pic.twitter.com/8ZuuQtwShd
— kristen shaughnessy (@kshaughnessy2) April 8, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042166809105711251

Economic Indicators and Prospects

Iran ceasefire may bring gasoline relief by Friday, analyst says https://t.co/ocuTl6jbL7
— Axios (@axios) April 8, 2026

The US Economy Is Replaying The 2000s, Not The 1970s https://t.co/yIm5GCNkKh pic.twitter.com/IUsOPDr5dX
— NDTV Profit (@NDTVProfitIndia) April 9, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042131387831001533

Monetary Policy

Markets shift back towards potential Fed rate cut this year with Iran ceasefire in place https://t.co/MQWGI2uv3w
— CNBC (@CNBC) April 8, 2026

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042136803264651735

The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and the risk that years of… pic.twitter.com/IRi6BYjOXI
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 8, 2026

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042103819379585062

#OOTT | US Mulls Lifting Venezuela Central Bank Sanctions To Aid Economy – BBGhttps://t.co/N0DNvxQ8fi
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 8, 2026

*Focus on Middle East conflict

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042095767616172188

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042100011429748906

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2042100965600293079

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2041903159031869756

IRAN’S AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN DELETES TWEET ABOUT PLANNED IRANIAN DELEGATION VISIT TO ISLAMABAD: TASNIM
(https://t.co/r3MELH7AAQ) pic.twitter.com/wM6qzkwp1M
— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) April 9, 2026

The Ambassador of the Islamic Republic in Pakistan announced that the Iranian delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night for talks with the American delegation. https://t.co/O3NESUNbyN
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 9, 2026

Trump Weighs Punishing Certain NATO Countries Over Lack Of Iran War Support – WSJhttps://t.co/U4Da6EKSTD
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 8, 2026

Asia

Markets

Overseas investors bought the largest amount of Japanese bonds in a year last week after large redemption reduced their holdings https://t.co/ZK9CGqqD1r
— Bloomberg (@business) April 9, 2026

The Korean won may rebound back to levels seen before the US-Iran war in the second quarter because of lower oil prices and foreign inflows to stocks, strategists said https://t.co/xps72aHJ2i
— Bloomberg (@business) April 9, 2026

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2042155843895095752

Economic Indicators and Prospects

New Zealand central bank governor still expects economic growth in 2026 https://t.co/tLfH2YikwI https://t.co/tLfH2YikwI
— Reuters World (@ReutersWorld) April 8, 2026

New Zealand’s central bank will respond with interest-rate increases to any acceleration in core inflation, Governor Anna Breman said Thursday, as fuel prices surge in response to the conflict in the Middle East https://t.co/A4aWGqiMnS
— Bloomberg (@business) April 9, 2026

Monetary Policy

BoJ Is Likely To Raise Interest Rate In April, Ex-Official Says – BBGhttps://t.co/AZssXKLhm4
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 8, 2026

Fiscal Policy

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/2042128654780510412

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

The defense ministers of Japan and Australia voiced concerns in a meeting to reaffirm a deepening security relationship https://t.co/doM1OIE0ia
— Bloomberg (@business) April 8, 2026

Xi tells senior officers to ‘stay pure’ after Chinese military’s anti-graft drive https://t.co/96EmR6snnw
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) April 9, 2026

Europe

Markets

Sterling is carrying more of a war premium than the euro in options https://t.co/0TGxw7IWtw via @vkaramanis_fx pic.twitter.com/auNGmA7b1x
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 9, 2026

Economic Indicators and Prospects

German Industrial Production WDA (Y/Y) Feb: 0.0 (est 0.8%; prev -1.2%; prev R -0.9%)
– Industrial Production SA (M/M): -0.3% (est 0.7%; prev -0.5%; prev R 0.0%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 9, 2026

Spain Industrial Production (M/M) Feb: -0.1% (est 0.2%; prev -0.4%; prev R -0.7%)
– Industrial Output SA (Y/Y): -1.1% (prev 0.3%; prev R -0.2%)
– Industrial Output NSA (Y/Y): -1.3% (prev -2.7%; prev R -3.1%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 9, 2026

EU Will Still Be Hit By ‘Stagflationary Shock’, Brussels Warns – FThttps://t.co/4OW9CvDLgT
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 9, 2026

Housing

UK RICS House Price Balance Mar: -23% (est –18%; prev –12%)
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 8, 2026

Monetary Policy

Vanguard’s Koutny sees the ECB hiking even if Iran ceasefire holds https://t.co/YlqAcIMDOk pic.twitter.com/5iCiJaFpdq
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 8, 2026

Fiscal Policy

Trade, Politics and Geopolitics

Rutte preps for Trump with NATO trust at low ebb https://t.co/yKta4zALR5 via @suzannelynch1 pic.twitter.com/2CKhF46sif
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 8, 2026

VP Vance Says Brussels' Attempt To Sway Hungarian Vote Is "Worst Foreign Election Interference He's Ever Seen" https://t.co/lqrryhQKMB
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 9, 2026

Other Areas And Global Economy

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/2040703344046379220

*Note: Previous briefs can be found here