What's New for Eurodollar University Members - Eurodollar University

What's New for Eurodollar University Members - Eurodollar Universityhttps://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/Thu, 22 Oct 2026 03:45:28 +0000en-USSite-Server v@build.version@ (http://www.squarespace.com)Q&A #222Jeff SniderThu, 22 Oct 2026 03:45:28 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj4-fj2pb-23kta-h458h-hmmzl-nx4d8-5gjbb-etc38-ws74862b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ad9866eafc402751e81dd12@Albertletoride-hz7oj: Hi Jeff. Perry Mehrling passed away last week. What is your overall assessment of his contributions to monetary theory, finance, and economics more broadly ? @Albertletoride-hz7oj: I plotted the yield curves for several countries with sophisticated financial markets. Why are France or Japan’s yield curves so steep, while those of countries like Australia and Brazil are so flat? @gratefuldad327: Jeff, for the 40 in a 60/40: Treasuries vs IG vs high yield? With private credit contracting and collateral scarce, is HY riskier than usual right now? @jpcbrasil: hi Jeff ! I’m not sure if I’m right, but it seems that K. "Washer" intends to force deleveraging across private credit markets, banks, and so on. @jpcbrasil: Is raising interest rates the only tool at his disposal? Are there any other tools he could use? Or is his actual intention to burst the bubble and kill them all? @dubiousdandy904: I'm struggling to reconcile the discretionary signals in curves with passive mechanical flows in those markets (not mutually exclusive). But mechanical flows are beyond Wicksell's wildest nightmares. @dubiousdandy904: (continuing) We know that market participants will do whatever it takes when seeking perceived safety and liquidity, regardless of mechanical flows. @Alex.Jenkinson: Not sure how much it matters, but there does seem to be a housing crash playing out. @dubiousdandy904: Next time you collaborate with Mike Green, will you please pick his brain about market share of 'passive' flows in bond markets? Mike has discussed this in recent months and your input would be great. @jespitia88: Whats going on in real estate? China? CRE? @DullilanFurbamond: in a Post Money World, what foods would be more valueable as a a perishable currency than artifical foods?@gratefuldad327: What impact will a push toward socialism in the USA have on treasuries in short and long term?

]]>Q&A #222Weekly Recap #179Jeff SniderThu, 22 Oct 2026 03:36:12 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb66-3maat-7bpcy-asrtz-ewk5s-xdfh6-8bzca-wee82-t7gzl62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ad9847925526c634ea1860dTGIO more. Bonds reverse on CPI. Bills split with SOFR? Energy up. Gas down. HUGE retail revision. US CPI. China Sept stimmie bounce. Still no banks. Canada zero 2d order inflation.

]]>Weekly Recap #179The Federal Reserve Part 3: DisasterJeff SniderWed, 21 Oct 2026 03:32:30 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/crcbhlda4ak8the-mcnym62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ad831f81626dd6bc65cf80ePart 3 of the Federal Reserve series examines the “easing” that wasn’t. As banking panics destroyed deposit money during the Great Depression, the Fed focused on low interest rates, reserve creation, and defending the gold standard — failing to recognize that the monetary system itself was collapsing and just fifteen years after “furnish an elastic currency” was instituted.

]]>The Federal Reserve Part 3: DisasterQ&A #221Jeff SniderSun, 18 Oct 2026 16:45:42 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj4-fj2pb-23kta-h458h-hmmzl-nx4d8-5gjbb-etc3862b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ad4f76cb30043631673e079AI, credit cycle, UST Septembers, and EDU’s new Viscosity Index. What are the three September effects? Where do they come from? How do they impact the bond market? Are they responsible for the September selloff? If so, what does that mean for Oct? Are we seeing the credit cycle emerge? Where does it come from? Why does private credit seem to be in the middle of it? Is it only just private credit, or are public markets involved, too? Artificial intelligence bubble? Bust? What do we know and what does everybody think?

]]>Q&A #221Weekly Recap #178Jeff SniderThu, 15 Oct 2026 04:19:11 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb66-3maat-7bpcy-asrtz-ewk5s-xdfh6-8bzca-wee8262b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ad053f9de229b645a4afac1Rates in October. Bills split with SOFR. TIPS still no. Oil back up. Gas won’t budge. Diesel stuff. Iron comes forward. Record low confidence. Homes. Canada proves participation problem.

]]>Weekly Recap #178Q&A #220Jeff SniderThu, 08 Oct 2026 03:35:08 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj4-fj2pb-23kta-h458h-hmmzl-nx4d8-5gjbb62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ac70f0d0578bd72248a3e98@cmac855: Can the September effect on bond rates have something to do with the fact that during September most commerce’s buy their Christmas inventory and that creates pressure on dollar liquidity world wide? @cmac855: To the point that old treasuries have to be sold in order to obtain liquidity to fund the international transactions? @Albertletoride-hz7oj: how did the creation of the € currency impact the eurodollar system and the european financial system ? Why did the french technocrats push so hard for it, while the Bundesbank seemed more reserved ? @gratefuldad327: What’s the strongest argument against Brent Johnson’s view that dollar shortage will force foreigner long end UST selling? Maybe Sept wasn’t only dealer/bank plumbing but also “milkshake”-related @dubiousdandy904: Energy shock taxes incomes/margins, perhaps leading to purchasing substitutes. Could substitution create artificial breadth in economic aggregates? So, not just artificial highs but artificial "width". @stevespiller4857: Jeff - Do you have any thoughts how our current shocks are showing up in the municipal bond markets - particularly California as Sacramento continues to spend and spend? @dubiousdandy904: Rant: In geopolitics, mainstream commentary claim China reduced its oil imports by "reducing its demand". Shaking my head, I ask rhetorically "What the hell does that even mean?". Demand isn't a dial. @gratefuldad327: Rough odds that the Fed will lower interest interest rate within the next 18 months?

]]>Q&A #220Weekly Recap #177Jeff SniderThu, 08 Oct 2026 03:26:52 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb66-3maat-7bpcy-asrtz-ewk5s-xdfh6-8bzca62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ac70d24a7bb1c51fd1bf500Payrolls. Again. Hourly rates down. HH artificial bounce. LF with it. JOLTS no hiring. ISMs underwhelm. What about 10s? TGIO? Gas. Diesel. China PMIs & European HICPs.

]]>Weekly Recap #177Weekly Recap #176Jeff SniderThu, 01 Oct 2026 03:24:18 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb66-3maat-7bpcy-asrtz-ewk5s-xdfh662b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6abdd21ed5430e27bc842e15September + September = H2 September. Still no inflation. No growth. Just Trichet on yields. Energy shock no ease. PMIs explode in panic. Gold. Silver. Copper. Ratios.

]]>Weekly Recap #176Weekly Recap #175Jeff SniderThu, 24 Sep 2026 03:12:18 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb66-3maat-7bpcy-asrtz-ewk5s62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ab494d2c8699b43986dfa31Fed Trichet. Inversion watch: 2s10s. Moving back to the back of the curve? Energy’s ups and downs. Consumers panic buy. Industry producers not buying it. More Japan drama.

]]>Weekly Recap #175Q&A #219Jeff SniderWed, 23 Sep 2026 04:23:00 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj4-fj2pb-23kta-h458h-hmmzl-nx4d862b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ab353ce46da52560741e8fe@Albertletoride-hz7oj: Who are the suckers on the other side of the yen carry trade? Jap depositors? If China had no capital controls, do you think it would see capital outflows and currency depreciation, like Japan? @cmac855: Money creation is not the problem. The way Money is being spent is… what can be done to increase growth of the world economy so it surpasses return on investment?@cmac855: If ROI > G ….. a K economy will develop until destruction of wealth takes place. @cmac855: And at that point the rich eat the rich and creative destruction will take place. @dubiousdandy904: China NBS Industrial Production data and inventory financing: If narrow industrial goods can't be sufficiently export dumped, might inventory financing exacerbate an already weak banking sector? @dubiousdandy904: Would the low breadth of China industrial products (e.g., AI-related goods) also mean the credit products financing those goods lack breadth? During a bubble upside, nobody cares about breadth. @scottkennedy5768: tracking to understand economic regime and which quadrant this could identify was super useful framing this week!

]]>Q&A #219Conundrum #5: Who's the Real Star?Jeff SniderMon, 21 Sep 2026 04:41:19 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/crcbhlda4ak8the62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ab0b525b16a16218d37983aWhat is supposed to make an interest rate tight, easy, or neutral? In Episode 5 of the Conundrum Series, we explore R-star: the theoretical real interest rate meant to keep the economy operating at its potential with stable inflation. Central banks use it as a benchmark, but, as you might guess, there are few big problems with the big star.

]]>Conundrum #5: Who's the Real Star?Q&A #218Jeff SniderSun, 20 Sep 2026 22:33:28 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj4-fj2pb-23kta-h458h-hmmzl62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6ab05ef140aba0415206b225The Fed raised policy rates. But why? No, the real reason, not what everyone runs around saying on social media. It’s not what they say, and it stars the star of our next Conundrum video. The truth is, the FOMC agrees with the market, but…

]]>Q&A #218Weekly Recap #174Jeff SniderFri, 18 Sep 2026 03:36:57 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb66-3maat-7bpcy-asrtz62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6aacb1a447ad211003678c0eOil up MORE. Diesel record. Spreads out. Fed on deck. Real CPI story. Real PPI story. What Americans say about inflation/jobs. China’s cigarette bailout. Data shows why: wow.

]]>Weekly Recap #174Weekly Recap #173Jeff SniderThu, 10 Sep 2026 03:02:13 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb66-3maat-7bpcy62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6aa21d866ac9c67564bfaf77Oil up again. Spreads high. Bonds mostly shrug. Flatness spreads. Payrolls blowout. HH Survey rebounds (w/LF). ADP. JOLTS. Construction. Canada jobs down. China cigs.

]]>Weekly Recap #173Q&A #217Jeff SniderThu, 10 Sep 2026 02:54:39 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj4-fj2pb-23kta-h458h62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6aa21b70c42f6c2763682fff@gratefuldad327: Hi Jeff! September liquidity bottleneck shaping up at all? Thanks for doing these QAs. Always helpful. @gratefuldad327: Also- is it fair to say that the biggest source of volatility in equity markets is The Fed? Seems kinda ironic how much volatility they introduce. How different would it be if markets alone set rates? @Albertletoride-hz7oj: Hi Jeff. Apart from its research work, what purpose does the BIS serve ? Is it any relevant ? @Albertletoride-hz7oj: It seems most of the pioneering work on credit money was produced by figures from the British Empire in the XIXth and early XXth, with Alfred Mitchell-Innes perhaps being the most radical of them. @dubiousdandy904: Did cost overmanagement during the ongoing Silent Depression contribute to efficiency-focused supply chains that are very vulnerable to shocks? (e.g., concentrated industry, inventory overmanagement) @bestoflaughter: how much of a bump do you get for eurodollar university when you are on PBD.? @dariustata5636: Any knowledge of European Union pushing CBDC down Europeans throats to take private money to support public companies? @ryanm9371: If you were King, how would you redesign the monetary system? Thanks @dariustata5636: Lyn Alden is awesome. @dubiousdandy904: Any signs yet of a September Effect this year in this current context of bull steepening and Trichet risk interference? We know the window of that effect is between late August through of October. @donb46: Suppose a money market fund lends dollars on an overnight basis. Does the money market fund transfer the loan amount to the borrower? Or, does the money broker bookkeeper use his pen @Betto1uallTis: Do you have similar views like Ross Healy on this economy? @SelfRelianceOS: Just got here... What are your short and long term ideas about precious metals and how they'll react to the future happenings you see coming?

]]>Q&A #217Q&A #216Jeff SniderFri, 04 Sep 2026 04:12:11 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj4-fj2pb-23kta62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6a9a44d579da4c77d9ac9b49J-Hole hawk-fest? Jolt of Warsh jolted by JOLTS? Do emerging market currencies and economies ‘have’ to get crushed when the dollar goes higher? Can’t they just borrow locally to fill in the US$ funding gap? What did the Japanese and US Treasury really do during yen-tervention? Did it really fail already? Why can’t Japan control JPY? What’s going on with the copper-to-gold ratio? Is it showing reflation? Does that come from the AI boom? Is it the same thing as ‘soaring’ long bond yields? Are these related?

]]>Q&A #216Weekly Recap #172Jeff SniderThu, 03 Sep 2026 03:16:42 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb66-3maat62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6a98e668e7108267af34cf73J-Hole jolt. Warsh reasons. Flatter4eva. Long bond doesn’t soar. More energy shock. Spending flat. Xfers. China more ugly. European banks. Sell some govt bonds.

]]>Weekly Recap #172Q&A #215Jeff SniderThu, 27 Aug 2026 03:09:15 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj4-fj2pb62b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6a8faa0d35339821cbb6fdc5@Albertletoride-hz7ojHi Jeff. Do you know any good source to study the monetary system of Bronze age states (Egypt and Mesopotamia) ? Did you study in detail the pre XXth century monetary systems ? @justifiedmasagony3635: do you anticipate more demand destruction going forward? @dubiousdandy904: Is there any relationship between where we are in the private credit cycle and dynamism (or lack thereof) in the types and numbers of partners in financing deals? (e.g., the recent NVIDIA comedy 🤭). @ianrayner7522: Can Bessent's recent actions be viewed as nothing more than a corporate treasurer restructuring his firm's capital stack? @cmac855: Jeff the world has 9 billion engines they all run on the same fuel. There is not enough fuel for everyone to move their engine. How do we fix money so there is enough for every engine to move? @cmac855: Everything that happens in the world is just governments looking for new ways to create New liquidity. 🤷🏼‍♂️ @ianrayner7522: An article I read recently talked about the Fed's reserve management strategies in which it was implied there was a shortage of reserves - can that be true? @justifiedmasagony3635: man I learned so much from you these last 4 months following the channel @renaudadorno: I think MMT is nonsense, but Is the true mechanics of government spending like they describe where it spends first and taxation destroys it and TGA is just a ledger to reconcile what has happened? @piligrimius82: Jeff, when rates are going to go down by a lot and stay there? @Betto1uallTis: Hello Jeff. With many oil refineries out of commission around the world, how long do think the existing running refineries and repositioned companies be able to supply the world effectively?

]]>Q&A #215Weekly Recap #171Jeff SniderThu, 27 Aug 2026 02:58:35 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dfdkt5p656f4bcn-setp3-aj6dp-s7md8-3ln5k-ms3pg-9y5bn-869d3-jpbxa-rxlbm-l2mda-g6r2e-neb6662b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6a8fa7a0a632b66d66799bceTreasury buys back. QE lite? Yield Curve Control? One of the dumbest freakouts in a long time? Real rate story. Light macro. Central bank Trichet tide turning.

]]>Weekly Recap #171Q&A #214Jeff SniderFri, 21 Aug 2026 04:12:33 +0000https://www.eurodollar.university/whats-new/dgptbdcypxzdnas-gar9h-9fcra-flrpy-e6nkr-w4jkx-b2ywf-zx6wr-tlds6-ctwmg-9g9mx-hp943-zplnj-e6dzb-lbhgh-ssze5-d9hh5-3dwj462b9e19d9649156910ed385a:632369d56a7b741339a328f2:6a87cff446364b00a2abf0bbWTH Treasury Buybacks? Why does $40T national debt matter? Why doesn’t it for rates? Where is the ‘debt crisis’ really showing up? Is that EPB? Why isn’t the dollar doomed? What is the dollar’s ‘value’? So, how do we get out of the depression trap? Why not $ = ZERO? Where are we in the credit cycle? How can we tell? What does that mean?

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