What's New for Eurodollar University Members - Eurodollar University

Weekly Recap #166

Jeff Snider — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 03:21:22 +0000

War’s back. WTI twists. Rates react. Then react to CPI. CPI drops most since ’20. Core RARE decline. Demand not inflation. China exports boom on AI. Everything else…

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Conundrum #4: Great China Proof

Jeff Snider — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 03:49:22 +0000

Here in Conundrum #4, we’re going to go beyond the Western capitalism boundaries to see if we can find depression economics in top-down, quasi-centrally planned Communist China. Though the study of economics can often lead to ambiguous results, this case leads to no such gray area. By the end, you’ll have no doubt what low rates truly mean.

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Weekly Recap #165

Jeff Snider — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 04:52:12 +0000

WTI hits contango [superseded by events]. Contango signal signals demand. Gasoline feather sticky. Rates up on Trichet. SOFR frowns on Trichet. Gold. Silver. TIPS tip.

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Q&A #210

Jeff Snider — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 14:28:22 +0000

@Albertletoride-hz7oj: To which extent do you think the race to the bottom between Gulf exporters contribute to the oil contango we saw those last days ? @ianrayner7522: In your webinar you outlined your 4 quadrant growth/inflation diagram. What are your preferred measures for the axes? You mentioned you actually subdivide it further, care to expand? @wpetersen1081: your take on emerging market returns like India and currencies in the long term against the USA? @ianrayner7522: Can we still sign up for the beta website? @dubiousdandy904: We have market prices, macro statistics, and then "valuations" (e.g., NAV). While inferred valuations from models is conventional practice, in big picture terms what led to this epistemological shift? @scottkennedy5768: where to be on the yield curve @ianrayner7522: why does it feel like bonds and stocks are moving together @dubiousdandy904: Continuing on my valuations question, I wonder if classroom videos on money dealing mechanics in private credit is in order. You already did some of the work (e.g., your explanations of VaR and SRTs).

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Q&A #209

Jeff Snider — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 01:36:56 +0000

EDU 2.0 update. @wpetersen1081: do you think Greenspan and Bernanke did good or terrible jobs? @jespitia88: What is going on with the physical oil market? @ADBSpartan: What’s keeping the Fed or central banks writ large from adopting some free market interest rate policy and focusing on compliance and regulatory enforcement? @TJ25-c9b: Thoughts on the long term bond market once everything pans out? TIPS market showing inflation will go down even though it’s inflated on the short term causing stagflation concerns currently

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Weekly Recap #164

Jeff Snider — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 05:55:03 +0000

June Jobs: Employment plunges. LF Crashes. Payrolls probably negative. JOLTS said so. Home prices concur. GDP. No incomes. No inflation. Europe banks. WTI CONTANGO (almost)

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Weekly Recap #163

Jeff Snider — Fri, 26 Jun 2026 04:50:31 +0000

Oil still falling. Gasoline feather. PMs dumped. Rates turn. 2s10s reinverting? TIPS are crashing! Global rates falling. Feds damn dots. Trichet softening. Dollar spikes. PMIs warn.

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Q&A #208

Jeff Snider — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 19:54:07 +0000

@Albertletoride-hz7oj: I reckon the fed sets up 4 overnight rates. Why is that mostly the 2 year treasury which reacts to fed target rates and not shorter term rates ? @pnice494: audio is good Jeff 👍@pnice494: whats personal your 6 month forecast for the economy @Akirsop: Bond yields are dropping but the dollar is getting stronger. Does this have anything to do with the asian markets blowing up? @ADBSpartan: Why is the Fed funds rate interest rate policy and not monetary policy? And what could monetary policy (theoretical) be in today’s world? @Alex.Jenkinson: Hi Jeff. Once our new PM Andy Burnham starts, could a big new social house building govt money splurge kick-start the UK economy? @ianrayner7522: Are you expecting BOJ to step in and defend the Yen with the break of 160? Do you think they will be successful? @maartenk1739: Money velocity anything we can read on this now @dubiousdandy904: Mainstreamers ignore common sense economics clearer, for example, in TIPS signals in favor of the pseudo-empiricism of Economists (capital "E"). Is such ignoring a failure to assimilate the former?

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Introducing EDU 2.0

Jeff Snider — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 03:41:40 +0000

Well, almost. Launch date is July 1, 2026, Eurodollar University’s 4th anniversary. Before then, we need your help.

As part of this early stage, we’re inviting a select group of members to help us test the new services and website before the full public launch. Test members will be able to explore the platform, try out new features, identify bugs or confusing areas, and provide direct feedback on what works, what doesn’t, and what could be improved.

Weekly Recap #162

Jeff Snider — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 03:38:03 +0000

Peace deal. Oil tumbles. WTI flattens quick. PMs liquidated. Private credit runs continue. Central banks everywhere. No inflation. China banks bad. Consumers worse.

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Conundrum #3: Rate Cuts

Jeff Snider — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 03:50:50 +0000

The theory says the Fed lowers interest rates, eases its policy and stimulates the economy. Forget for now how that is supposed to work. The question we’re going to answer in our third video is: does it? In other words, let’s take a look at the actual evidence. You might have already noticed no one ever does. Neither officials nor Economists ever bring up past experience. History never seems to find its way into the vast library of mainstream media stories that uniformly love rate cuts.

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Weekly Recap #161

Jeff Snider — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 03:38:24 +0000

Labor data flood. Payrolls did it again. World cup transitory. HH Survey disagrees. JOLTS split the wrong way. Small biz hiring 2020. Consumers and markets agree: no inflation.

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Q&A #207

Jeff Snider — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 03:35:52 +0000

Bears, bulls, flatter or steeper? Curves and Trichet-ing. But for how long?

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Q&A #206

Jeff Snider — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 03:16:05 +0000

Japanese carry warning 2024 + Sahm trigger @sunshineretired2582 (YouTube): Thanks Jeff, is this stage 2 or 3 ? @ryanm9371: If banks create money thru loans and we now have technology with instant wireless communication, are banks unnecessary middlemen? Can’t we just use our own ledger? Aren’t banks just risk assessors? @SymT111: With the treasury issuing swaps to the UAE, do these draw from the domestic supply of dollars, or from Eurodollar ledgers? @yobsme (YouTube): cant the government just take your gold anyways? as they have before. @dubiousdandy904 (YouTube): Jeff, with Powell leaving his Chair position soon, let's update our Central Banker caricature art. For example, Kevin Pringles and Christine Good Place. KC Jeff and the Many (Few?) Participants. 🤭

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Weekly Recap #160

Jeff Snider — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 03:05:15 +0000

US income signals recession. Spending softens. GDP lowered. No savings. Home prices worst since 2012. Canada technical recession. GDP contracts Europe. Banks ignore ECB. TIPS.

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Weekly Recap #159

Jeff Snider — Fri, 29 May 2026 03:42:54 +0000

Oil optimism. Tempered. Rates flat. Sell 2s buy term SOFR. TIPS say NNNNOOOO. Dollar shock shocking. PMIs everywhere. Manu temporary. Services are target. CPIs won’t Trichet.

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Q&A #205

Jeff Snider — Wed, 27 May 2026 04:04:03 +0000

@koljoneninvest8723: What would need to happen for credit impulse to slow down materially? @Albertletoride-hz7oj: What do you think of the MOVE index as a proxy for repo health and money circulation ? @jpcbrasil: hi Jeff, I am JC from Brasil. Where can we get SOFR term and futures? Tradingview? @ianrayner7522: Hi Jeff. I am confused about "term SOFR" vs. "SOFR futures". In recent YT video you show term SOFR declining. SOFR futures seem to be implying rising rates. Help me understand the difference. @TheClanBuchanan: Good evening from the UK, Jeff. Ironically or not, am sat here reading Edward Chancellor’s ‘The Price of Time’. @pnice494: Thoughts on AI spending, build outs and will the investments be stable or could it go the way of private credit? @TheClanBuchanan: What do you think are key risks on the global credit markets of the seemingly inexorable climb in the Japanese 10 year bond yield? @TJ25-c9b: Thoughts on the long term bond market once everything pans out? TIPS market showing inflation will go down even though it’s inflated on the short term causing stagflation concerns currently

WATCH HERE

Conundrum #2: Lowest Lows

Jeff Snider — Mon, 25 May 2026 04:05:00 +0000

If low rates are stimulative like we’re told, then why didn’t the 1930s boom? Or Japan in the 90s? How about Europe with negative rates in the 2010s? China 2020s? Real world experience doesn’t just seem to run contrary to everything we’re taught about rates, it always does. That record goes far back to the very beginnings of the modern industrial economy and its always-evolving monetary system. Through it all, interest rates have behaved consistently. It’s Economics that has changed; or tried to.

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Q&A #204

Jeff Snider — Thu, 21 May 2026 03:33:07 +0000

New Fed Series. Conundrum 2 @yobsme (YouTube): I am heavily infested in energy, why don't we see a jump in energy stocks? @Shawn0patrick (YouTube): Can you talk about USDJPY bounce off 160? @andrewc3881 (YouTube): What are you measuring when you talk about the unwind of the basis trade? How can we watch that? @bestfriendhank1424 (YouTube): Jack Farley had a guest on the other day that more or less said there’s nothing wrong in PC

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Weekly Recap #158

Jeff Snider — Thu, 21 May 2026 03:29:04 +0000

China really goes down. Loans contract. HH borrowing worst on record. Spending & investment crashed. Dollar shock India gold. US spending. Consumers no inflation.

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