tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100197042026-05-06T23:31:31.181+01:00Stock Market Commentary by Dr. Declan Fallon; est. Jan 8th 2005Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comBlogger4606125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-8096504295444645852026-05-05T23:21:30.140+01:002026-05-05T23:21:30.140+01:00<p>It was a good day for the Russell 2000 as yesterday's indecision was negated by a respectable day of buying. Technicals are net bullish, but today's volume was a little disappointing given new all-time highs.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpNsKel2R-v51zSiugfY_Tf3xQsHgcDN5BN9do1fV_OA9n-LlgxR5BxZ-wVPaAxZChbW3Dgu8slpYuksqC6ALvaTSlf4jdr2QLZFONClgNeccsK3ic6Qkur_ITu_N_dQEH9eMD3SWpIRZQBg-jEKAMKoyt-EocRInohNl2Pq49Hw5y9usrwFgX/s1600/iwm_may5b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpNsKel2R-v51zSiugfY_Tf3xQsHgcDN5BN9do1fV_OA9n-LlgxR5BxZ-wVPaAxZChbW3Dgu8slpYuksqC6ALvaTSlf4jdr2QLZFONClgNeccsK3ic6Qkur_ITu_N_dQEH9eMD3SWpIRZQBg-jEKAMKoyt-EocRInohNl2Pq49Hw5y9usrwFgX/s1600/iwm_may5b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Better was the S&P, in that it registered an accumulation day with a new closing high. There could be a good day trade if tomorrow starts with a gap high, forcing shorts to cover (although there is unlikely to be many), but no overhead resistance.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHQgALmQbYbztfT7gVA9AEgXvlNn11WyCwE7NZ8rsh33euXLRIdSXlA07x5ddhrRVc0UatHAGzf3vy_P9w8Zskha-5gC9y_yyw9Ej6Zb5Zu0fbobJaFoshPq34PXeTQWoatjhr3oCY1xGAn3nFsG_A0K9mgGT2wdTxy9uMSvPnJqz9ukg4IS5I/s1600/spx_may5b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHQgALmQbYbztfT7gVA9AEgXvlNn11WyCwE7NZ8rsh33euXLRIdSXlA07x5ddhrRVc0UatHAGzf3vy_P9w8Zskha-5gC9y_yyw9Ej6Zb5Zu0fbobJaFoshPq34PXeTQWoatjhr3oCY1xGAn3nFsG_A0K9mgGT2wdTxy9uMSvPnJqz9ukg4IS5I/s1600/spx_may5b.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P bounced off 'bull flag' support and will again be challenging February highs after the last failed test in early April. I expect this test to succeed in breaking higher (why? because triple tops are rare).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi62rC83bd65JMcp8ZZIw4XhhaMcxId7_n1dGeNQWu_Z3rVoGCA6FbA01FikHig3qstNVm7jWU-S38jXEyFMURSjhR_YlnW_o-RUYv4BSFhUvFYf4V2uAuL65A4nmHYWhu64qqa-ceQ5m2X007O4RbiaHpW0eRKeeJTz1jocccMqr9ZB6HS7lnL/s1600/SPXEW_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi62rC83bd65JMcp8ZZIw4XhhaMcxId7_n1dGeNQWu_Z3rVoGCA6FbA01FikHig3qstNVm7jWU-S38jXEyFMURSjhR_YlnW_o-RUYv4BSFhUvFYf4V2uAuL65A4nmHYWhu64qqa-ceQ5m2X007O4RbiaHpW0eRKeeJTz1jocccMqr9ZB6HS7lnL/s1600/SPXEW_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is taking baby steps higher and volume has been reasonable, but hardly spectacular - which is probably a good thing.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN2QdA6Ebtyn4F9y5YM3SQCxYwKbej6Tm5iE7qAu9Qp8vr5UTJNzWVuAd26DlipsbyJvHQ0XSg3hJrCkPBqWgJQ0B4xaIMNL_4GH9CXuJ1uN7yr_GoTSpSZ6Mj-tC51iqhilwC76D3fpIAarQoQCNeOYx9GgJzmg6ghrmRyFyQIDz1-P20Vqim/s1600/compq_may5b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN2QdA6Ebtyn4F9y5YM3SQCxYwKbej6Tm5iE7qAu9Qp8vr5UTJNzWVuAd26DlipsbyJvHQ0XSg3hJrCkPBqWgJQ0B4xaIMNL_4GH9CXuJ1uN7yr_GoTSpSZ6Mj-tC51iqhilwC76D3fpIAarQoQCNeOYx9GgJzmg6ghrmRyFyQIDz1-P20Vqim/s1600/compq_may5b.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin is very close to testing its 200-day MA, and may do so as early as tomorrow. This will likely be a profit taking opportunity, so if you are looking to ease up a little, then will be the time. If (when) it breaks through its 200-day MA, it will set up for a follow on move to January highs.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYzOg8yDQjzBDuwUbCeBcBc1Qeh1tM3ztJzXUP2eujwmM4MS1q2yUNOMrTl8PNCwfcJiMwrqWFhrks9MriLXxZ8brmQFiQW1mBnmL_J1ig5nNgcXN7l43MRC4mYABIZTTnVn7KiJ2WuaghK9jyjnFeTOEpJLNhReSU4nyNICaeTPIjVuIqE546/s1600/btcusd_may5b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYzOg8yDQjzBDuwUbCeBcBc1Qeh1tM3ztJzXUP2eujwmM4MS1q2yUNOMrTl8PNCwfcJiMwrqWFhrks9MriLXxZ8brmQFiQW1mBnmL_J1ig5nNgcXN7l43MRC4mYABIZTTnVn7KiJ2WuaghK9jyjnFeTOEpJLNhReSU4nyNICaeTPIjVuIqE546/s1600/btcusd_may5b.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have long since said goodbye to the February highs lead indices are struggling with/defending. Today saw a new breakout in the index on very strong technicals. Amazing strength for a sector that had flatlined over 10 years ago at around 500.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk97a9BO8q3bPxprNGXi47TuxdcG2JJYY7rPc8RAnRIlx2AIbFJdKOj5zEfQOCl2vlgolOc5Wgrn1DOiRLV80Wi5h0Syqx9YqcP1zwD9TfdTJaIjHXbnRwVPRkouPoC_kwo6Lflw8SFrJGSAUaFnyvGodQuq8Z0fbd0RVWwv1Gl4W05oDRIfpC/s1600/sox_may5c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk97a9BO8q3bPxprNGXi47TuxdcG2JJYY7rPc8RAnRIlx2AIbFJdKOj5zEfQOCl2vlgolOc5Wgrn1DOiRLV80Wi5h0Syqx9YqcP1zwD9TfdTJaIjHXbnRwVPRkouPoC_kwo6Lflw8SFrJGSAUaFnyvGodQuq8Z0fbd0RVWwv1Gl4W05oDRIfpC/s1600/sox_may5c.png"/></a></div> <p>Aside from profit-taking for needs, there is little reason to be out of the market at this time, unless you are on the sidelines - in which case, there is a risk. For the record, the Russell 2000 is trading 14% above its 200-day MA that places it in the 10% zone of historic action. I don't have data on it, but the Semiconductor Index is running 51%(!) above its 200-day MA; although it was only 10% above at the end of March.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script>th window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-20016481328029031402026-05-04T00:05:42.943+01:002026-05-04T00:05:42.944+01:00<p>Lead indices had a good end-of-week finish that registered fresh breakouts. The slingshot index could be the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It traded a nice handle before it broke lower in what looked to be a pending test of its 20-day MA. But instead of that, it reversed and has now broken to the upside. We are looking for a potential measured move target of 320(ish). </p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3c2OSyG20zKEzHli654AIKIAEqh1KMVWc0wh4xa0v3JTDYbgAg0TU2E94g5AtPxndckchZthijTneaYmBs-OF-hNTVWGh48BQ-I7TlYMBUpvbA1efs5ZIbPA7YmVYBaVU6pr_zCswn8ObI7UPm0nV5M2rW_56iqKIihNeay9OWHYqS1ZcFHeq/s1600/iwm_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3c2OSyG20zKEzHli654AIKIAEqh1KMVWc0wh4xa0v3JTDYbgAg0TU2E94g5AtPxndckchZthijTneaYmBs-OF-hNTVWGh48BQ-I7TlYMBUpvbA1efs5ZIbPA7YmVYBaVU6pr_zCswn8ObI7UPm0nV5M2rW_56iqKIihNeay9OWHYqS1ZcFHeq/s1600/iwm_may5.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P has been reaching its target goals like a kickstarter project. It finished Friday on a potential gravestone doji - a reversal candlestick. It had posted a higher day accumulation the day before, and the move out of its smaller handle has only begun, so it may be a little early to be heading lower, but we need to be aware of the possibility. Technicals are net bullish, although the index is sharply underperforming the Nassdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2kDWCha0Zc-GtZXhVI8rljSHPWrK34GK915jPI-tjAx-HLjtmnLr15sRy75M4v6-UUy2zzZOXKKfMG3156_1jiHvPcyozxwtG6rxDcs7YnO9lK3v_u2e4AY6VG-R7eE6IteXbz-_Vv0lldp0T33FFNnI1xpRL_IoTxSFfHh1D37TAQpsJneIQ/s1600/spx_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2kDWCha0Zc-GtZXhVI8rljSHPWrK34GK915jPI-tjAx-HLjtmnLr15sRy75M4v6-UUy2zzZOXKKfMG3156_1jiHvPcyozxwtG6rxDcs7YnO9lK3v_u2e4AY6VG-R7eE6IteXbz-_Vv0lldp0T33FFNnI1xpRL_IoTxSFfHh1D37TAQpsJneIQ/s1600/spx_may5.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal weighted S&P reflects this a little differently. Thursday delived the 'bull flag' breakout, but the selling on Friday led to another failed test to break resistance. If you want a short play, this is the one to target with a stop on a move above 8,300.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1bWwpxyo5YZBXsZns6EygX3CNwvT7O7HugbKjqTXnOJFJIaaj1jeqv9SVM-pPxxgtuVIt9v3BzopprZtTGJt7t0GLwCkIAIwvPzQhkDnRmlJwdLQGEA8QIRnZ9nvNdGimuR6YUkiE6E50wC8gKNmg39-JnwzbkETQU5ATxwO5ThmUZD96aiXd/s1600/SPXEW_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1bWwpxyo5YZBXsZns6EygX3CNwvT7O7HugbKjqTXnOJFJIaaj1jeqv9SVM-pPxxgtuVIt9v3BzopprZtTGJt7t0GLwCkIAIwvPzQhkDnRmlJwdLQGEA8QIRnZ9nvNdGimuR6YUkiE6E50wC8gKNmg39-JnwzbkETQU5ATxwO5ThmUZD96aiXd/s1600/SPXEW_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 ($QQEW) is again above its 200-day MA after an earlier failed test. This has some nice upside and is perhaps the long trade of choice with a target of January highs around $145; stops go on a loss of $136 (although intraday violations are okay).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdwFAulXy_rnjLjgtD2ebhtHWH6QOvzJkqLgYG7EPuPbFlABItfnf0xsci_VwNrtmAOMkEb6ZRnmT9s_LvlJaHIkYZfZB03ndI2isQ_S258CDB4x9KitO2M_CRK49ZYsevHRG_kgRk8QMEPu1zK9nS8n24FHtDywt3s6zijR6Cjj07rvg4lZOj/s1600/qqew_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdwFAulXy_rnjLjgtD2ebhtHWH6QOvzJkqLgYG7EPuPbFlABItfnf0xsci_VwNrtmAOMkEb6ZRnmT9s_LvlJaHIkYZfZB03ndI2isQ_S258CDB4x9KitO2M_CRK49ZYsevHRG_kgRk8QMEPu1zK9nS8n24FHtDywt3s6zijR6Cjj07rvg4lZOj/s1600/qqew_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>Feeding into this is the Semiconductor Index. It's back challenging its alltime high - and the bearish cnadlesticks - at 10,564 resistance (also the measured move target). If this manages to break higher then it should help $QQEW reach its target.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnlAQ5q_YPl6HIEQtKt9EpFVV3H3KTX3Y1ZwHpmwt7-zgsEWak9ceeAbA0rE_qH22_mb7nzWc1hxzIc_c4_4KdEtXbyUWSmgTsuYCDRgnjy2kRXis5gN7KAahjZVz083dpxI2GWp5Q0enqCPoB2sVbIfv5Itx3EnVK6Fm386JLhn7DU16GXbYV/s1600/sox_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnlAQ5q_YPl6HIEQtKt9EpFVV3H3KTX3Y1ZwHpmwt7-zgsEWak9ceeAbA0rE_qH22_mb7nzWc1hxzIc_c4_4KdEtXbyUWSmgTsuYCDRgnjy2kRXis5gN7KAahjZVz083dpxI2GWp5Q0enqCPoB2sVbIfv5Itx3EnVK6Fm386JLhn7DU16GXbYV/s1600/sox_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin continues to play to bullish form with a slow-and-steady advance. The 200-day MA is fast approaching, and this will be its first big test after such an extensive decline.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGrzIdMIgIY3htM_uuN04Z3skisxJZoLRbecYipZiZiuJoQV8ouBF1-oA04MNBY6QwcskH_7-sAbefbEepdULZb5fNzqVXV_eOtDHlPU4VLOD8c5rLOibP-AW0ua9iIIDFx2cWmc-f7P_Rc43atGIzK_WTFxNRX3H_y0OQIeC3UrENxcOkyzqP/s1600/btcusd_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGrzIdMIgIY3htM_uuN04Z3skisxJZoLRbecYipZiZiuJoQV8ouBF1-oA04MNBY6QwcskH_7-sAbefbEepdULZb5fNzqVXV_eOtDHlPU4VLOD8c5rLOibP-AW0ua9iIIDFx2cWmc-f7P_Rc43atGIzK_WTFxNRX3H_y0OQIeC3UrENxcOkyzqP/s1600/btcusd_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>For the coming week, we have a number of bullish setups, with only the equal-weighted S&P index the one that might give shorts something to work with.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-71230840396159034542026-04-29T22:13:01.862+01:002026-04-29T22:13:01.862+01:00<p>There is an interesting setup coming for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) Today's action saw a move back into last week's breakout gap that registered as a breakdown from its narrow handle, BUT, retained the characteristics of the breakout by remaining above $270. In addition, we have a fast approaching 20-day MA that could provide a cue for buyers to step in. Technicals remain net bullish, although today's volume registered as distribution. While I tend to be a 'glass-half-full' person, I am leaning here towards a possible 'bear trap' that should resolve tomorrow; if we see buyers step in after the first half-hour of trading (when the likely direction for the market that day is established), then it might be worth a long play.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX1e94IQ3x0qMndqXYEcFcBdLo1cC7n2zsaZI1M6GRLQbPsbPmBhkI5kZ0DvUHoSv8YqgV3wB3wwHJli0lt2UJFMHl66uvK1lP15X0S8ZhrEdBO608XsLLBDoeUOlpCJuEFIDqCSZX-UxLJWv0V9ltKMbfzIxb07tUYDmWoAyp96nK5bO2JkZf/s1600/IWM_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX1e94IQ3x0qMndqXYEcFcBdLo1cC7n2zsaZI1M6GRLQbPsbPmBhkI5kZ0DvUHoSv8YqgV3wB3wwHJli0lt2UJFMHl66uvK1lP15X0S8ZhrEdBO608XsLLBDoeUOlpCJuEFIDqCSZX-UxLJWv0V9ltKMbfzIxb07tUYDmWoAyp96nK5bO2JkZf/s1600/IWM_apr30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The asset I have been most bullish on in recent weeks, Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), has returned to a support level. I wouldn't want it to push lower from here - and the MACD 'sell' is a little worrisome - but if sellers do continue to act, then look for buyers to come in at its 50-day MA. I still prefer the 200-day MA as the upside target, or at least a price point where significant selling can be expected.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QLxRW1mk1odNI6GNy2Z-Yh2Z0-vwcSXdc3B03eFT-ILf74F4QKwTyDTaPesbRVVguBIFtTvdrlo319eRNEkiZK_zbs8SHI0b5NMr9gzKLVx6zCKAsvc11s6cqNSDbhFigpwuupQg1sm8-p_pdnNtQUW0YfcRCjGEf5g27dviXGY5hsePB3sh/s1600/btcusd_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QLxRW1mk1odNI6GNy2Z-Yh2Z0-vwcSXdc3B03eFT-ILf74F4QKwTyDTaPesbRVVguBIFtTvdrlo319eRNEkiZK_zbs8SHI0b5NMr9gzKLVx6zCKAsvc11s6cqNSDbhFigpwuupQg1sm8-p_pdnNtQUW0YfcRCjGEf5g27dviXGY5hsePB3sh/s1600/btcusd_apr30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P is running along the lower support level of a small bull 'flag'. Aggressive players could look to go long at its 20-day MA, as it's due an up day soon. An upside break from the 'bull flag' will open for a challenge of 8,300 resistance, and potentially more.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjINasEgIUX5T2AIa8hOOlVC4QEtovN13prcAQkx72XnOPdkdksx6g9BJEyI88QurK-QXcpa53UiF_DzHvtngtT5dSJmQNPA_V4WdDDgpQvzeKi7SKygl_SMsLC5fz4xeqHl0WoHpKQlP7NSZj1GIpiiJgRJCXPCQKOLTnTS_IEI3XGP-pz8Qyx/s1600/btcusd_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjINasEgIUX5T2AIa8hOOlVC4QEtovN13prcAQkx72XnOPdkdksx6g9BJEyI88QurK-QXcpa53UiF_DzHvtngtT5dSJmQNPA_V4WdDDgpQvzeKi7SKygl_SMsLC5fz4xeqHl0WoHpKQlP7NSZj1GIpiiJgRJCXPCQKOLTnTS_IEI3XGP-pz8Qyx/s1600/btcusd_apr30.png"/></a></div> <p>The weighted S&P did very little, but given the small handle its shaping, things are looking nicely (if low key) bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cjSu7dZCke4a559pdp4W7zBTPDik6JVzUAWekTMTGELpdPYT_9WP0Jq2nTIrjDQCSLZSocxtGNxOoU84KMjDgyM8ygqMliJK31GlmXmgiR8LD8TnEqPLdPZw3xb0eqB9Cx4hXtOMHer2y0FcVAiaBTknxoJJc6CfVerbRPamG7aen-2qzpya/s1600/spx_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cjSu7dZCke4a559pdp4W7zBTPDik6JVzUAWekTMTGELpdPYT_9WP0Jq2nTIrjDQCSLZSocxtGNxOoU84KMjDgyM8ygqMliJK31GlmXmgiR8LD8TnEqPLdPZw3xb0eqB9Cx4hXtOMHer2y0FcVAiaBTknxoJJc6CfVerbRPamG7aen-2qzpya/s1600/spx_apr30.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrial Average is also drifting lower and is on course to test its 20-day MA. It has yet to challenge 50K after its initial tag in February, as the index fails to generate the same level of interest as the S&P and Nasdaq, and this is a little disappointing.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6Hauf6MCqiezn5TV_3uK3PunlYXfym5YUn3d8niMNSnCVe4XqSinKFEcyh2xW55AaLpZqkbgh516C62FmQwCGHzg0nNZMVR0EvGMFz3OROyU3tPuzRFiK2OWpMjNt0kbaCXhJ6QTQyaGP7kM97POgliJf3jlfhQO5tDx2T7YGBLDftz66Ij3e/s1600/indu_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6Hauf6MCqiezn5TV_3uK3PunlYXfym5YUn3d8niMNSnCVe4XqSinKFEcyh2xW55AaLpZqkbgh516C62FmQwCGHzg0nNZMVR0EvGMFz3OROyU3tPuzRFiK2OWpMjNt0kbaCXhJ6QTQyaGP7kM97POgliJf3jlfhQO5tDx2T7YGBLDftz66Ij3e/s1600/indu_apr30.png"/></a></div> <p>The other index to watch is the Semiconductor Index. We got a ping at the second measured move target before prices were rebuffed. It's strongly bullish, but it needs more of a pullback than what we have seen so far.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik76WpYXPijNa_HDYXup9K8erYlRXW-8C__0hvJtWWry3l6kYSMDL6CLv0jgwwg3hS0hLdxUkKXZkEJ6_vLNCMkB-yHHyViZ9vMaWPVAIkZ4hzyTY-5AHQse0tARCb8YfI9tr5V7a6TKJHm-edDiIYWmLv13LA_z6EjBUfrfiM65OlY3Bh_RQx/s1600/sox_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik76WpYXPijNa_HDYXup9K8erYlRXW-8C__0hvJtWWry3l6kYSMDL6CLv0jgwwg3hS0hLdxUkKXZkEJ6_vLNCMkB-yHHyViZ9vMaWPVAIkZ4hzyTY-5AHQse0tARCb8YfI9tr5V7a6TKJHm-edDiIYWmLv13LA_z6EjBUfrfiM65OlY3Bh_RQx/s1600/sox_apr30.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, focus on the Russell 2000, a "bear trap" looks the favored option, but if things start bad and stay bad, then it's easy to step away.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-2296851548354468672026-04-27T22:23:29.337+01:002026-04-27T22:56:17.937+01:00<p>Nothing really to add from the weekend, but the one chart that is leaving me confused is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Consumer sentiment is in the toilet, really in the toilet - no surprise really given tariffs and general Administration f*ckisms - but the market has been pushing new highs rather than pivoting to new lows as has happened in the past.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The two big declines in consumer sentiment because of y2k and Covid had two very different market responses; y2K ended in new lows in March 2009, while the current decline has delivered new highs. What this means for the next rally will be interesting. On the optimistic front, every recovery in consumer sentiment has enjoyed solid gains in the market. </p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTE-HY_JMSwHUceNJ9zWjScWU-hfOvJF8MgVP-pY1cG9PG8eaRTg12_lg0Zcka4P4K108YrHOxYf1C7qtN3XAvEcgl03THcxalk-57R-Q2U_zPcWkWxmR1CbHkXU45LzNTQKAWBPVMeFpjyHQt8rdYoxvpGva3pRcc0Zn4f2ZUiFFZzFwpt0Jg/s1240/mich_apr27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="600" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTE-HY_JMSwHUceNJ9zWjScWU-hfOvJF8MgVP-pY1cG9PG8eaRTg12_lg0Zcka4P4K108YrHOxYf1C7qtN3XAvEcgl03THcxalk-57R-Q2U_zPcWkWxmR1CbHkXU45LzNTQKAWBPVMeFpjyHQt8rdYoxvpGva3pRcc0Zn4f2ZUiFFZzFwpt0Jg/s600/mich_apr27.png"/></a></div> <p>What this next means for Consumer Sentiment and markets is up for grabs. Unemployment is on the steady rise and this will likely be accelerated by AI related job losses, that in itself, could deliver new market highs. But it's hard to see a happy ending when we reach a tipping point between falling consumers and higher company profits. It will be an odd mix and one that will play out over the coming years, not months or weeks. </p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-5833497691669459362026-04-26T21:52:40.556+01:002026-04-26T21:52:56.560+01:00<p>Indices continued to post gains but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains in the process of consolidation. The index is shaping a bullish handle which offers a nice risk:reward play for those looking to play the break. Volume has been light across the pattern and well below that of the March capitulation, and below even that of the early year advance.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnMYa9_Vu5quAnMv-F1ZWEGyA7kq45j1rg8_an881y9uJFTFqkzaEwLmaLMYh1G75c4fWYUTzmDco0oHVQ5f8IAHAOMXaY0vv_0Eh1-PRQXslTgFOrtrImjnFyptkjIg-gN3pv2K4t67U8QPgluzgA4egvL3OX42ksbzkUjJBIs2vl0-DJ9fZx/s1600/IWM_Apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnMYa9_Vu5quAnMv-F1ZWEGyA7kq45j1rg8_an881y9uJFTFqkzaEwLmaLMYh1G75c4fWYUTzmDco0oHVQ5f8IAHAOMXaY0vv_0Eh1-PRQXslTgFOrtrImjnFyptkjIg-gN3pv2K4t67U8QPgluzgA4egvL3OX42ksbzkUjJBIs2vl0-DJ9fZx/s1600/IWM_Apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P is attempting a 'bull flag', although it's a little scrappy. Technicals are net bullish but its underperforming relative to its weighted average and this weakness is expanding.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibAc3RBbffu4wvUWFw1e6fMBdX5haV-94aYfgKNKQ4rCohjNPVgDmuG4zrASkQJ9y1SsJ5kz_d9heAmC-LvWuw10mFwo0O4rqwkyGXEsKHHCQNuJjSsRQQFkEltE8Xjxt8R59sAu5MionMaE475o6pg6AOFf8Q6r2Whui5_r5PC9OKn3dyGLMz/s1600/SPXEW_Apr24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibAc3RBbffu4wvUWFw1e6fMBdX5haV-94aYfgKNKQ4rCohjNPVgDmuG4zrASkQJ9y1SsJ5kz_d9heAmC-LvWuw10mFwo0O4rqwkyGXEsKHHCQNuJjSsRQQFkEltE8Xjxt8R59sAu5MionMaE475o6pg6AOFf8Q6r2Whui5_r5PC9OKn3dyGLMz/s1600/SPXEW_Apr24.png"/></a></div> <p>The S&P edged a breakout of its small handle, which gives an indication that the equal-weighted S&P should follow suit on the break of the 'bull flag'. The only caveat is the edged breakout lacked sufficient consolidation to shake out the weak hands, so it leaves the move vulnerable to volume selling.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxK69zWySo2NYEWUN-WMbW7ad47YfjT3IMfaYO3b9OqP0Rfr9YYo1oZKdFfTdK70qx0g6rg0T3X2fa-w00Slmz-fa0TUHE2JNNdKq6Ja-SH8egL3FbitLePIv2kRl7zofgeL0ZX9DDvokRUJCyXYdm_rvhNKKoCsSZBW7ZJ5MkOg8Uhb-_LUIb/s1600/spx_apr24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxK69zWySo2NYEWUN-WMbW7ad47YfjT3IMfaYO3b9OqP0Rfr9YYo1oZKdFfTdK70qx0g6rg0T3X2fa-w00Slmz-fa0TUHE2JNNdKq6Ja-SH8egL3FbitLePIv2kRl7zofgeL0ZX9DDvokRUJCyXYdm_rvhNKKoCsSZBW7ZJ5MkOg8Uhb-_LUIb/s1600/spx_apr24.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq finished Friday on higher volume accumulation after a successful defense of the breakout gap. As with the S&P, there hasn't been sufficient consolidation to take out the early profit takers. The relative performance of the index to the Russell 2000 has been shifting back and forth throughout 2026 - its currently outperforming, although I think this may be better news for the Russell 2000 in the long term.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVKhQD0_DPHmeBFEbzkxB5pzVruLOLqbatLjF8pbrnMG-NZZ_YQmiOf-xdo0TAkXmodeDr96qrbhw5TYd1Q2nyAka0h01TXRfBdyKsQJm8F2FkQ0t5nDf0gtb6mMTWJCEy_9Pxs3en_KekLaSiSdrP15J_lUd8BIfzj6dC60ihT5XZarCfVxMI/s1600/compq_apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVKhQD0_DPHmeBFEbzkxB5pzVruLOLqbatLjF8pbrnMG-NZZ_YQmiOf-xdo0TAkXmodeDr96qrbhw5TYd1Q2nyAka0h01TXRfBdyKsQJm8F2FkQ0t5nDf0gtb6mMTWJCEy_9Pxs3en_KekLaSiSdrP15J_lUd8BIfzj6dC60ihT5XZarCfVxMI/s1600/compq_apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have reached what looks like the last measured move target from the swing low in November 2025. Given the rate of acceleration, it's hard not to expect a level of selling that could cause panic for those who bought Semiconductor stocks on Friday. For me, I see the first stable support at 8,500 and little else besides.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiHO3zt9eltNYXMXwQ7zG9yd0YpimZ0c8GEIoCbRhBABiz3O_u_6J1Atgm8paGb5bTU27iqf1u1CHRfmTrvXpOcZnyIImMlrZiT8LWTN1W5-OXtLP967jOIsB6aj5ojTDmeq0Xaknovm2T1QU8ak4TPVcHk6Yfrbjyqr8MW00f_x7UfPDybgkG/s1600/SOX_apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiHO3zt9eltNYXMXwQ7zG9yd0YpimZ0c8GEIoCbRhBABiz3O_u_6J1Atgm8paGb5bTU27iqf1u1CHRfmTrvXpOcZnyIImMlrZiT8LWTN1W5-OXtLP967jOIsB6aj5ojTDmeq0Xaknovm2T1QU8ak4TPVcHk6Yfrbjyqr8MW00f_x7UfPDybgkG/s1600/SOX_apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>In contrast, the equal-weight Nasdaq 100, has only just broken above its 200-day MA as of Friday's close, although technically remains strong. For comparison, the Semiconductor Index is 48% above its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoAX08w1Zg7KsJ-upeuDn1LitTi9yv6T1FeyzZ6FzWAQAs2Sb0-hKE8SFxjEPLPFUHqxZ-C3BjLUzjehcu8o3TPXDJuyjO2CehVJfv0mM0-qO30-eyrQ2wMv6knGyphH44L9V11Qaezocjux3lZkS6IDJUK4wrjWTOlt6lLcTtJz1SVHp0MEeP/s1600/qqew_apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoAX08w1Zg7KsJ-upeuDn1LitTi9yv6T1FeyzZ6FzWAQAs2Sb0-hKE8SFxjEPLPFUHqxZ-C3BjLUzjehcu8o3TPXDJuyjO2CehVJfv0mM0-qO30-eyrQ2wMv6knGyphH44L9V11Qaezocjux3lZkS6IDJUK4wrjWTOlt6lLcTtJz1SVHp0MEeP/s1600/qqew_apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin continues to behave well and has been making steady progress back to its 200-day MA, which is likely to be the first point of contact for profit taking.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3SBMG_PJTHDSLaM9e3wQjP8FPpClFOockVvu2eGVRZHMhwoapq6quTrBj3XRnriuxG592gpAd6eM3EjwcNGdTub_C3na66ChW80_ysztlrMeuG-tlswMx9MJqseq9bs8pTbULWcg8i_8ycFBAxWsEQOe0ArEj3L4nkdIBZZS8XbZUYOZEQMKi/s1600/btcusd_apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3SBMG_PJTHDSLaM9e3wQjP8FPpClFOockVvu2eGVRZHMhwoapq6quTrBj3XRnriuxG592gpAd6eM3EjwcNGdTub_C3na66ChW80_ysztlrMeuG-tlswMx9MJqseq9bs8pTbULWcg8i_8ycFBAxWsEQOe0ArEj3L4nkdIBZZS8XbZUYOZEQMKi/s1600/btcusd_apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>Markets are doing what they do despite the Iranian war and hefty tariffs. I do have concerns above the Semiconductor Index (and associated indices) which can't keep posting an endless sequence of white candlesticks, but Bitcoin and the Russell 2000 are behaving solidly and show no reason to be bearish.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-76565890337091102512026-04-23T23:16:23.721+01:002026-04-23T23:16:23.721+01:00<p>After the rejection at resistance it would have been easy for the equal-weighted S&P to come back to its moving averages. However, today's close delivered a bullish dragonfly doji, although momentum is overbought which means it's not a reversal candlestick. Given the proximity to resistance it's well placed to deliver a breakout following the lead of weighted the S&P. Technicals are net bullish, but there is still significant underperformance against the weighted average.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPxWRPEEZIykE3C7Lf_NnBNB2ipONZll4gwnkpwUTWrDwUd8D6sdxn_vCWgfnSM837bCtlqyc1MRiS6b8nF82gaH1o4qR9POM1byrN3m5644JVC0nbJxc3bIL2eiGjlGJihbXHSYGMgy46zRBoTyrdDxYvrh_cO3EA3UboiPM-gkH4-q2W7D-r/s1600/SPXEW_Apr23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPxWRPEEZIykE3C7Lf_NnBNB2ipONZll4gwnkpwUTWrDwUd8D6sdxn_vCWgfnSM837bCtlqyc1MRiS6b8nF82gaH1o4qR9POM1byrN3m5644JVC0nbJxc3bIL2eiGjlGJihbXHSYGMgy46zRBoTyrdDxYvrh_cO3EA3UboiPM-gkH4-q2W7D-r/s1600/SPXEW_Apr23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>Action over the last week in the weighted S&P has been shaping a solid handle. It now offers a good risk:reward opportunity and the chance for a measured move target to 7,900.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmz78BAJsMG385vCOUVzFJWj64XWR9j-P4P7HKuQHjQEvncnJ3xe70iw9pNgOrsQT5bizoFOMrteK9cT-byjHjcwB9PwMCHu1oQdBP51niSQJfC9IfCahY0vvHiM_q-WGICv2FWi-mKjoGqJYmWKeewgOSPCNUNPHqZPSfIfrnbDQFt4Np9trc/s1600/spx_apr23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmz78BAJsMG385vCOUVzFJWj64XWR9j-P4P7HKuQHjQEvncnJ3xe70iw9pNgOrsQT5bizoFOMrteK9cT-byjHjcwB9PwMCHu1oQdBP51niSQJfC9IfCahY0vvHiM_q-WGICv2FWi-mKjoGqJYmWKeewgOSPCNUNPHqZPSfIfrnbDQFt4Np9trc/s1600/spx_apr23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 edged itself above its 200-day MA yesterday, but dropped back below it today. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, although technicals are net bullish. This action may be a 'mini-bull trap'.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC4EPvGw5IuI19YUAEQNBtrFkDvYWZmimC-WiVMeU32QeDO256Gp8C9Sry24EuXAAuBbdFH_9qUXGOc6k8i5APcRnO8W-BOsZXQb96zl4AzNFGYsMbkOnpR4B1MTfb96WcWgQQrPiCLoLt59pU5drSZaqm_nqBWLDrNjdYRmdVKS1vMZxuCgIs/s1600/qqew_apr23b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC4EPvGw5IuI19YUAEQNBtrFkDvYWZmimC-WiVMeU32QeDO256Gp8C9Sry24EuXAAuBbdFH_9qUXGOc6k8i5APcRnO8W-BOsZXQb96zl4AzNFGYsMbkOnpR4B1MTfb96WcWgQQrPiCLoLt59pU5drSZaqm_nqBWLDrNjdYRmdVKS1vMZxuCgIs/s1600/qqew_apr23b.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is holding its breakout and is showing decent demand at 24,200, and is a good place to place stops if looking to go long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4AOZDzmUPkASl57h0xbFUv93SB676lGFFMc3CDStxQH6bl2BtkooK8ULVg0GLGGiTvJ3OFtoW0dVDyUuy-E4ULjuGSxu8SibKdds3hdJ6vPideGwKvXQ70MMaqxeGcj6RJoJGtU1z0MOGzoD1ckYxnQjGrOm_KB02X-75Bgc_K55kKGKxwHNx/s1600/compq_apr23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4AOZDzmUPkASl57h0xbFUv93SB676lGFFMc3CDStxQH6bl2BtkooK8ULVg0GLGGiTvJ3OFtoW0dVDyUuy-E4ULjuGSxu8SibKdds3hdJ6vPideGwKvXQ70MMaqxeGcj6RJoJGtU1z0MOGzoD1ckYxnQjGrOm_KB02X-75Bgc_K55kKGKxwHNx/s1600/compq_apr23.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have yet to register a down day in nearly 3 weeks. It's got to a point where you can't be a buyer, but there isn't a reason to sell either. Psychological resistance of 10K has been breached and this is perhaps the new stop zone if long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinmzVfPKF6xa3AvBDNK5bGBSd_Cyz7Cd4WnlBmoxuzUpqvTknTCJHEyaUbNoSoUK5XmW4zDqTgoi51PIuocUnbFzNV3rQTNh-XFpIv7grLkFhW3fkcRFgujBr7bDL6XHIcBiCgfS6ZpPbKt16YdVxnZqfr9tKnZsetxG5TKhE24RdMgv8jYSty/s1600/sox_apr23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinmzVfPKF6xa3AvBDNK5bGBSd_Cyz7Cd4WnlBmoxuzUpqvTknTCJHEyaUbNoSoUK5XmW4zDqTgoi51PIuocUnbFzNV3rQTNh-XFpIv7grLkFhW3fkcRFgujBr7bDL6XHIcBiCgfS6ZpPbKt16YdVxnZqfr9tKnZsetxG5TKhE24RdMgv8jYSty/s1600/sox_apr23.png"/></a></div> <p>Equal weighted indices are catching up with their weighted peers. Latter indices are offering good longside opportunities. Even if sellers strike, there is plenty of support to work with.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-73123981044954329952026-04-21T22:35:00.002+01:002026-04-21T22:35:28.604+01:00<p>It's of no coincidence that when sellers appeared for the equal weighted S&P they did so at resistance. Today's candlestick at all-time resistance was almost a bearish enfulfing pattern with a spike high penetrating resistance. Given the weighted S&P had already broken to new all-time highs, the guidance here is for equal-weighted S&P to follow suit. BUT, if the weighted S&P undercuts breakout support to leave a 'bull trap', then much worse is likely to follow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4671rThWXI7C5pZw81klS-pEX_LuxbwrQEJ8QjZgXV5JRkPEj2ArLu-YgCSGQ9QgVxTvW8cYVJnZeRF3AvBTOCUAy2bHDzFIrMEH0wGB-wRIF4vz7WA9pVtLp6qJlycgMtv2cSew9zjJy2PBdkjjujFz2rNvemFfvYaos9PzXW1UbCBolBy5v/s1600/spxew_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4671rThWXI7C5pZw81klS-pEX_LuxbwrQEJ8QjZgXV5JRkPEj2ArLu-YgCSGQ9QgVxTvW8cYVJnZeRF3AvBTOCUAy2bHDzFIrMEH0wGB-wRIF4vz7WA9pVtLp6qJlycgMtv2cSew9zjJy2PBdkjjujFz2rNvemFfvYaos9PzXW1UbCBolBy5v/s1600/spxew_apr21.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyOk3csgloTHvs6z1sNRBNB57YmpEqedBa_ka3TgQkBcx0IaaVjRJ0bJwdUGAOGsXaGdVwphstPw3kmjdMsffyQs9TY7z_hh9L90xj-Xi15d0mBjjIg2gQ1hxVTMVCZOhg6LoQIOhInvUQH1OUHgs3K_nPqlhYMD4nsYylVCfhsV3l9ouoMc7c/s1600/spx_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyOk3csgloTHvs6z1sNRBNB57YmpEqedBa_ka3TgQkBcx0IaaVjRJ0bJwdUGAOGsXaGdVwphstPw3kmjdMsffyQs9TY7z_hh9L90xj-Xi15d0mBjjIg2gQ1hxVTMVCZOhg6LoQIOhInvUQH1OUHgs3K_nPqlhYMD4nsYylVCfhsV3l9ouoMc7c/s1600/spx_apr21.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) also finished with a bearish engulfing pattern, but has some wiggle room to support. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, but technicals are net bullish. It's an index that is well placed for bulls to continue their advance, but it's important $268 support holds (on an EOD close basis, intraday violations are okay) if tested.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzj25nUmgSbqYuM8oeYx07YUrUWuYdc4zxfqhzKZz7hZvYvSo0DCV2CTiRIDbaChXx5LVYDYM5ldQ3ALzHG_4TjLuyDsyPkVdQ4ViKv4uAX8y-sD-xQqMIrfrR-frtnU97BQ43JsQFnzmqQSKibCb4niO_S79rQVHKwUzd9o0puie338UHaqRR/s1600/iwm_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzj25nUmgSbqYuM8oeYx07YUrUWuYdc4zxfqhzKZz7hZvYvSo0DCV2CTiRIDbaChXx5LVYDYM5ldQ3ALzHG_4TjLuyDsyPkVdQ4ViKv4uAX8y-sD-xQqMIrfrR-frtnU97BQ43JsQFnzmqQSKibCb4niO_S79rQVHKwUzd9o0puie338UHaqRR/s1600/iwm_apr21.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is in a similar predictament as the Russell 2000 ($IWM), and has psychological support of 7,000 to work with. Technicals are net bullish, volume barely registered as distribution.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-O_wsdqRoEPIvCz0a0gSFSXZ4T-9A5wsfoFqLHWqn7ebiLAAqn4p6h7NERUI5BVaJyqd6Q4tNNtbGM2l34PhI0l8k5JVyr6GiboiyIC0ZmYCK08WviveM9TlVBvk1frXUztK_pkMnMM0PT_izXMZXWaZHtU4ef8EsUJF8l6mNriI1EbE2-Wi/s1600/compq_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-O_wsdqRoEPIvCz0a0gSFSXZ4T-9A5wsfoFqLHWqn7ebiLAAqn4p6h7NERUI5BVaJyqd6Q4tNNtbGM2l34PhI0l8k5JVyr6GiboiyIC0ZmYCK08WviveM9TlVBvk1frXUztK_pkMnMM0PT_izXMZXWaZHtU4ef8EsUJF8l6mNriI1EbE2-Wi/s1600/compq_apr21.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 is tagging its 200-day MA in what is also a key resistance test. It's still someway from breaking to new highs which is a little concerning for bulls. Technicals are net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5jQTK4CDrZZ_uLqI7Dv0Y2SjMuAyrna3LXbgnp1oyL8ZcDSWNkrRtSjAD0k9gPmLSGOenVAlLHU1rQ4A-tcHXLPmSUKp7QF0Fg5XlvqQR07vufMX1trN_GxL8CwtlQDNY5XN0Bc8MLjYDdm6KlnrMNeGbCH4zyod1IJuvzuPTFNUY5lj3SSvu/s1600/qqew_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5jQTK4CDrZZ_uLqI7Dv0Y2SjMuAyrna3LXbgnp1oyL8ZcDSWNkrRtSjAD0k9gPmLSGOenVAlLHU1rQ4A-tcHXLPmSUKp7QF0Fg5XlvqQR07vufMX1trN_GxL8CwtlQDNY5XN0Bc8MLjYDdm6KlnrMNeGbCH4zyod1IJuvzuPTFNUY5lj3SSvu/s1600/qqew_apr21.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin is stable, steadily rising, but nothing to dramatic. An unusual predicatment for a cryptocurrency.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8AdH2bX8Jnq4FOS9jekU_TJ5IRhrhFrFE7ipTMcljU9clg8C2ePS3R1nDWYCaGR-PTCoXe-BBORlB8sI0uGGfXr5omOF6EItE6ZvGre6AmURqBXEc7zPHss6O_4WlkZh_gCiFmognT0N-rtCasy9wzse6miX3IqRA0yT6Mpf5mHqX0cfrak9M/s1600/btcusd_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8AdH2bX8Jnq4FOS9jekU_TJ5IRhrhFrFE7ipTMcljU9clg8C2ePS3R1nDWYCaGR-PTCoXe-BBORlB8sI0uGGfXr5omOF6EItE6ZvGre6AmURqBXEc7zPHss6O_4WlkZh_gCiFmognT0N-rtCasy9wzse6miX3IqRA0yT6Mpf5mHqX0cfrak9M/s1600/btcusd_apr21.png"/></a></div> <p>The Semiconductor Index reached its measured move target in less than a couple of weeks from its breakout. Psychological resistance of 10K is fast approaching.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbw_0uaSbPwGbGFTtEGRtlsY71Sw0TvgdTgSAzw3QI-oAv482eOkpkXVHni31ESeNNhuQN7qpgjLyqt5kZCCqqOH3y8z9ZpmcBHAaQ09pthcfJbhNZcwC_EN2gd17duep7nCO5U5p5Lc_gq9hztifsWQRqbAovzAGNelASkF8su-O13Oo2b-be/s1600/sox_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbw_0uaSbPwGbGFTtEGRtlsY71Sw0TvgdTgSAzw3QI-oAv482eOkpkXVHni31ESeNNhuQN7qpgjLyqt5kZCCqqOH3y8z9ZpmcBHAaQ09pthcfJbhNZcwC_EN2gd17duep7nCO5U5p5Lc_gq9hztifsWQRqbAovzAGNelASkF8su-O13Oo2b-be/s1600/sox_apr21.png"/></a></div> <p>Sellers have finally made an appearance after a couple of weeks of straight buying. We have clear support levels to protect (or resistance areas to breach). Consensus is that bulls are in control. World events would suggest bears will win out. The coming days will be the decider.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-26184544036630879032026-04-19T23:22:00.002+01:002026-04-19T23:22:47.078+01:00<p>Friday delivered a solid move higher across indices. The Russell 2000 had the best of the action with a breakout gap higher on confirmed accumulation. The only negative is the relative underpeformance to peer indices. It's just a question what spanner Trump wants to throw at the indices; next week could be a long week.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFrhOh6egkNmdNiVpI_OnrrP-dsC_S1ib9Iz28iVPF8KEjix9R0FvB6KnMqdcDScKb7c8c5Lx9feu8jSm1F1RSC9uI_Smqhl_tFH2VMB2hGi8xfyMMjM4R0evzcDXWZCVVhkHHqANtJ_fROsZUpZ1w9Kup6yg2ZONxv3HCcgpVM_Nkz33Si0LN/s1600/iwm_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFrhOh6egkNmdNiVpI_OnrrP-dsC_S1ib9Iz28iVPF8KEjix9R0FvB6KnMqdcDScKb7c8c5Lx9feu8jSm1F1RSC9uI_Smqhl_tFH2VMB2hGi8xfyMMjM4R0evzcDXWZCVVhkHHqANtJ_fROsZUpZ1w9Kup6yg2ZONxv3HCcgpVM_Nkz33Si0LN/s1600/iwm_apr19.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P had already registered a breakout, and Friday's gains just added to that. At the same time, underpeformance to the Nasdaq widened. </p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaB1VGuyZGHapFp6OX_3I5PWkObdPG9ZZuXm20QGESCB2JKqRI3mDB-KJ7pt16AcqSTYAIXVzdCs-7EfZGXYiuKE24MvOPVIBNA6TIOc9vrW2U0zrQ0TO3Bh4XUfiYJLFMxT7INTredkn4DNdk1LL-zmFbQozRYlF5sCuoQLE7P3QSesaVp9C8/s1600/SPX_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaB1VGuyZGHapFp6OX_3I5PWkObdPG9ZZuXm20QGESCB2JKqRI3mDB-KJ7pt16AcqSTYAIXVzdCs-7EfZGXYiuKE24MvOPVIBNA6TIOc9vrW2U0zrQ0TO3Bh4XUfiYJLFMxT7INTredkn4DNdk1LL-zmFbQozRYlF5sCuoQLE7P3QSesaVp9C8/s1600/SPX_apr19.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq logged yet another white candlestick on confirmed accumulation. The last down day was over 2 weeks ago, so odds are, we will see a couple next week. A breakout support test is the minimum to look for next week.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFoRK4n6EhJd-vo8s2jAlBYmCXVV1Ek0pPFvFJJA9uyzfqnT-gxOoHjPCL4Od8-LvGDAmfPZg_w3jnw6rgD16_taXuNZiTgbiYKmzG3yNGPN7PwkZArhmEUp8W9EODmcv_aul6bbtdr8FA0yti6WXt5I6guVRJf6YsVjbPyUcx1AiOlqTXHOK/s1600/compq_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFoRK4n6EhJd-vo8s2jAlBYmCXVV1Ek0pPFvFJJA9uyzfqnT-gxOoHjPCL4Od8-LvGDAmfPZg_w3jnw6rgD16_taXuNZiTgbiYKmzG3yNGPN7PwkZArhmEUp8W9EODmcv_aul6bbtdr8FA0yti6WXt5I6guVRJf6YsVjbPyUcx1AiOlqTXHOK/s1600/compq_apr19.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin delivered a breakout earlier in the week before it drifted back to breakout support. I'm still liking this for more upside and it looks like it has a steady pair of hands.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpjNFgncQWwkJ0fyEGDnTooHX2w1jNqjUbLtoPLAGUMtKzbHvB9R-megSlM1t2Tjd3UBPUpW1L3ykc65H5_Nq1YV_7ClZMJaFyWQA7tHpgWDrPqJ7-3LhWae-NB4E8Admv2DNy60Mjl6Dwg5TMhBcgc2n8MuqF488EjgCKzb0DDXh8yf4VR4Ut/s1600/btcusd_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpjNFgncQWwkJ0fyEGDnTooHX2w1jNqjUbLtoPLAGUMtKzbHvB9R-megSlM1t2Tjd3UBPUpW1L3ykc65H5_Nq1YV_7ClZMJaFyWQA7tHpgWDrPqJ7-3LhWae-NB4E8Admv2DNy60Mjl6Dwg5TMhBcgc2n8MuqF488EjgCKzb0DDXh8yf4VR4Ut/s1600/btcusd_apr19.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P broked from its indecision to move towards resistance. Such a test is likely next week, if not Monday. The question is whether it can follow the weighted S&P with a breakout of its own. Technicals are net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuN2LXaquxnrZ8UwO6vkQHd_nsl_eeHnTLx5SeQTPYXoYor6X8FQ0a5CCYXPYyHvUcNpuvKsjSwTw10Z-WzAlv8hvF_0QgpxnBEXRB2dmwzxJneEoiGMGbacD8uwWQzYooPogwrDp5crwSngPLrbYvXra6w0MgwBNJ1-RYyfp7K7tviZ31fM4Y/s1600/spxew_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuN2LXaquxnrZ8UwO6vkQHd_nsl_eeHnTLx5SeQTPYXoYor6X8FQ0a5CCYXPYyHvUcNpuvKsjSwTw10Z-WzAlv8hvF_0QgpxnBEXRB2dmwzxJneEoiGMGbacD8uwWQzYooPogwrDp5crwSngPLrbYvXra6w0MgwBNJ1-RYyfp7K7tviZ31fM4Y/s1600/spxew_apr19.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have been bordering on the absurd, and is fast approaching psychological resistance of 10K. I would look for some serious profit taking (in associated assets, like $SMH) when it gets there.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrB0Omsi3cvQGAg5Ib25QHm6zlRs02kw7W3wt77P_aMeY1yax69fBYZEsxv9xyzVbZV2llV2q37g4hN-dmSTZytsP9SFLTWIInDOZMO0r32EBiOf-aV_SxSRo6exVvwZdqwb4n7C_wqRSoVdPWMJQbMfyMvcSg-yWXBLNmvQyuX9wsgkyArI29/s1600/sox_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrB0Omsi3cvQGAg5Ib25QHm6zlRs02kw7W3wt77P_aMeY1yax69fBYZEsxv9xyzVbZV2llV2q37g4hN-dmSTZytsP9SFLTWIInDOZMO0r32EBiOf-aV_SxSRo6exVvwZdqwb4n7C_wqRSoVdPWMJQbMfyMvcSg-yWXBLNmvQyuX9wsgkyArI29/s1600/sox_apr19.png"/></a></div> <p>And if there was a downside area to look for, a cluster of Fib levels around 6K would not be unreasonable.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLqaj9JWTbsNxh8NrvpCmRoiYmFpTvAZvSO-JuiMQQlBFQzdKYz6BPOkdpu9Egagj0MugbMoSbmWDYVOM_kqxC8EXg7Tm56EoVGx7acdGBD0Ewbx8UY5umBNfsXSfIdFMGvp1eSKlvdeCLthJZvltJY1fUlPBnklW_y4u9trxLP7xt_hBNXHVn/s1600/sox_apr19w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLqaj9JWTbsNxh8NrvpCmRoiYmFpTvAZvSO-JuiMQQlBFQzdKYz6BPOkdpu9Egagj0MugbMoSbmWDYVOM_kqxC8EXg7Tm56EoVGx7acdGBD0Ewbx8UY5umBNfsXSfIdFMGvp1eSKlvdeCLthJZvltJY1fUlPBnklW_y4u9trxLP7xt_hBNXHVn/s1600/sox_apr19w.png"/></a></div> <p>Indices have done nothing but go higher since there was a sniff of a ceasefire in the Iranian war. I see nothing to suggest a true ceasefire is in the works, so how markets have been so confident as to make new all-time highs (beyond their pre-war state) seems odd, but that's the market as it stands now, and price is king.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-71697398834143173072026-04-16T12:45:00.002+01:002026-04-16T12:45:32.623+01:00<p>It's no coincidence to see indices start to slow their gains as resistance approaches. This was best represented by the Russell 2000 ($IWM) as the advanced got squeezed and the net gain on the day was minimal (Futures suggest a modest start, no big breakout yet). The breakout could happen before the week is out, but the gap moves we have seen will act as a draw to be filled, so don't be surprised if we a move back to Tuesday's gap higher. Technicals for the index are in good shape, although volume is a little disappointing.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIszry8-X3EEUVLZRUlJKTiH2xUbQ-p1axPdBGMquJIeb1vvUvLUcxXxQuO97ZhBC8AeQvbH3Pr4d5tbPoUdwMJoDccJr1by1_Syno4vZ1urVUw6v_5EFpU0Wismi9PvzJSKK2R3cDXPG9cm5pU4AuAdZn7j9lpVKLy-AUYVkM3qJU_4lLjppo/s1600/iwm_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIszry8-X3EEUVLZRUlJKTiH2xUbQ-p1axPdBGMquJIeb1vvUvLUcxXxQuO97ZhBC8AeQvbH3Pr4d5tbPoUdwMJoDccJr1by1_Syno4vZ1urVUw6v_5EFpU0Wismi9PvzJSKK2R3cDXPG9cm5pU4AuAdZn7j9lpVKLy-AUYVkM3qJU_4lLjppo/s1600/iwm_apr16.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The glass-half-full folks can point to the S&P that has delivered a breakout on yesterday's close. There is a vulnerability in that it has shot up without decline since recovering 6,550, and it's hard to see that hold without some form of pullback. Again, excellent technical strength, and volume trading has been solid, if unremarkable.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP8LNdkti81Wm-JGkn7vWFvlALYX7c0GkZkMPVHdTRTsq4bSgCdMH-rMYrhtGBWk_yXk9WyXf1P8LC6EOeQJHkwtyD0-bm9cMdVKgPot8UMrUiMf5ejStE15PNVNwjfEq3BKGeb9PBOkWUq7lh4byx5eioE_foH3_SG_8wcCantu13EAKnTYXG/s1600/spx_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP8LNdkti81Wm-JGkn7vWFvlALYX7c0GkZkMPVHdTRTsq4bSgCdMH-rMYrhtGBWk_yXk9WyXf1P8LC6EOeQJHkwtyD0-bm9cMdVKgPot8UMrUiMf5ejStE15PNVNwjfEq3BKGeb9PBOkWUq7lh4byx5eioE_foH3_SG_8wcCantu13EAKnTYXG/s1600/spx_apr16.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq has the smallest of edge breakouts (16 points above 24K), but it had the benefit of increasing accumulation volume. This is an amazing recovery given it was close to testing 20K only a couple of weeks ago. It has all the green checks; net bullish technicals and lead relative performance for the indices.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTLY8HrCLcih5opwgU8zhUFZNzOHT6mkqZuJ11xw94UKZPGOuUotxFG6zKhijl-vEQ8iX2-ylClzaZU3EVBj_IDjGJVfcpiJXWgS6mCTB6f9BqfCfpNmwnRMNi8InGHZG3bxYBbFJMcIEFdbsg-MdGpjmRkeSySB3Urc_GSqwTdYQV_N4VEoxo/s1600/Nas_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTLY8HrCLcih5opwgU8zhUFZNzOHT6mkqZuJ11xw94UKZPGOuUotxFG6zKhijl-vEQ8iX2-ylClzaZU3EVBj_IDjGJVfcpiJXWgS6mCTB6f9BqfCfpNmwnRMNi8InGHZG3bxYBbFJMcIEFdbsg-MdGpjmRkeSySB3Urc_GSqwTdYQV_N4VEoxo/s1600/Nas_apr16.png"/></a></div> <p>The majority of this strength is coming off the back of Semiconductors, which haven't paused since breaking to new highs.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8e63X7qKQ4XKj4xkSogAWwX6HixHUMtqRLOA7Sm9opa7yErOtdMUESpM_un1N8QdDWJvHreOloDre9FB-noIBsTeBaaI_Je6s1_ALXbU7ODZ1Kb5rLvjPSzuJNssEe65XbK4a_vGVK6YHEg2m2HLz_7eE9_EAtxgp2md6emv1mgf8msvbfXsb/s1600/sox_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8e63X7qKQ4XKj4xkSogAWwX6HixHUMtqRLOA7Sm9opa7yErOtdMUESpM_un1N8QdDWJvHreOloDre9FB-noIBsTeBaaI_Je6s1_ALXbU7ODZ1Kb5rLvjPSzuJNssEe65XbK4a_vGVK6YHEg2m2HLz_7eE9_EAtxgp2md6emv1mgf8msvbfXsb/s1600/sox_apr16.png"/></a></div> <p>However, much as I dislike the asset class, the long 'tech' trade of choice still looks to be Bitcoin. Plenty of lost ground to make up, and building steady accumulation since the Februart washout.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWcRXI5xCzdfJHwnGs-JtLV6OVF6-WebkWvWA-Nv5mpMlGOH5KalTYnQk3B66FuV93KxZA9JOnCLInZIO10sca2pjU38PbVGWtVvK9b6lmQtrlFKISsW6GhoZwi9aA6O_q-bgfCJNbNAy-Bay2EmRadcmjeN1halk9X5OXNZB3rNO0oyXwYjDk/s1600/btcusd_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWcRXI5xCzdfJHwnGs-JtLV6OVF6-WebkWvWA-Nv5mpMlGOH5KalTYnQk3B66FuV93KxZA9JOnCLInZIO10sca2pjU38PbVGWtVvK9b6lmQtrlFKISsW6GhoZwi9aA6O_q-bgfCJNbNAy-Bay2EmRadcmjeN1halk9X5OXNZB3rNO0oyXwYjDk/s1600/btcusd_apr16.png"/></a></div> <p>The disappointments come from the equal-weighted averages and the Dow Industrials. I don't know if this really reflects the true state of the markets, as it's hard to be so optimistic given the unchanged state of the Iranian Gulf War. Yesterday's indecisive spinning top in the Dow Industrials is reason for caution, and it's a 50:50 call as to whether it continues to go test resistance, or makes the equal distance journey back to support and a new undercut of its 200-day MA. Buyer Beware.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjveyK1qZztUakQTPHBRHUA41L-NuSzXoiD9SU376UpzBGF5D_eQe1COk8cVEUgFc1U0DkQnGTSD1aAXAwpUlZx4u49l-rOPqSTdOy43r-_3ovJDPKDpo4jvwpegRGxnXpKcE8osTKsbal2jGAXUeB6yygHMyIIqM79HBl8borHBW0rLU_PO5qQ/s1600/indu_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjveyK1qZztUakQTPHBRHUA41L-NuSzXoiD9SU376UpzBGF5D_eQe1COk8cVEUgFc1U0DkQnGTSD1aAXAwpUlZx4u49l-rOPqSTdOy43r-_3ovJDPKDpo4jvwpegRGxnXpKcE8osTKsbal2jGAXUeB6yygHMyIIqM79HBl8borHBW0rLU_PO5qQ/s1600/indu_apr16.png"/></a></div> <p>The gains of the past couple of weeks don't feel 'real', but price is king and until we see a rejection of resistance (or a failed test of breakout support for Semiconductors), we have to assume the market wants to go higher. It does appear to be a good time to take some profits, particularly from tech stocks, and rotate into some of the underperforming names (nearly any non-tech sector) to take advantage of the next leadership surge.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-25786402974779329472026-04-13T21:48:00.002+01:002026-04-13T21:48:43.753+01:00<p>Markets have done well to hold the sizable gaps after version 1 of the US-Iranian ceasefire, and if there is reason for optimism, it's that markets are exepecting a version 2 of the ceasefire relatively soon(?).</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) returned to a net bullish technical state as the base breakout is on the way to challenging $270. Since the test of the 200-day MA there hasn't been an opportunity for 'value' buyers to step in on a pullback. This might happen when $270 is tested.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4rvWaZ7NLMj7UQB7r1QvRIWeFi-YWvOh_cH1xLID53AtzuUCo2nTjwpKi85uD6jkwcW9itqvNIeUJn8FfaCubPaQ4aP1KASB5CXi0dzNyNWho8nR4G-NI2tr_jsaNnGI1-pX8zdZxo9IrHlFk-Pepdyuz8PL5NPQjLXM0hpShr3msFdLitvQR/s1600/iwm_apr13b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4rvWaZ7NLMj7UQB7r1QvRIWeFi-YWvOh_cH1xLID53AtzuUCo2nTjwpKi85uD6jkwcW9itqvNIeUJn8FfaCubPaQ4aP1KASB5CXi0dzNyNWho8nR4G-NI2tr_jsaNnGI1-pX8zdZxo9IrHlFk-Pepdyuz8PL5NPQjLXM0hpShr3msFdLitvQR/s1600/iwm_apr13b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P may in the process of edging a new breakout of declining resistance that is an important level on the weekly chart. All-time highs are next, but I would like to see this breakout hold first. Technicals here are net bullish too.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibvuXoexza2jPwQTLek-oM6zWlCspLZ5FTSO8i21C26027DYroCLIiP4cJiI5G2u-OocNIQpPbgzS7tu6xRDt3aBrWfdvh9PXdGT9AlZO9P_DHHo8Cs78ciCchh79Dnrav6yu_bT8kvnFX7c_LIl3-tECJ69ne5qCdKixp5EwDRLoik2-vy2na/s1600/spx_apr13c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibvuXoexza2jPwQTLek-oM6zWlCspLZ5FTSO8i21C26027DYroCLIiP4cJiI5G2u-OocNIQpPbgzS7tu6xRDt3aBrWfdvh9PXdGT9AlZO9P_DHHo8Cs78ciCchh79Dnrav6yu_bT8kvnFX7c_LIl3-tECJ69ne5qCdKixp5EwDRLoik2-vy2na/s1600/spx_apr13c.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq has a little clear air to work with. The breakout is solid and technicals are net bullish, but it won't be the first to test all-time highs. However, traders can take their lead from the Russell 2000 and S&P.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGOo1_XxOKnfP6K_J48J1wVxp99Bkthde4rU0bf3rZReLfFU8BauASuZ2VwlePfkEcSsK1yIHMtD0fg1swzFhA4ySDHD3OesHQ9Vxb0PmRsLr8-fiJTInFkhWnYBKdfIfecI7Ms7qFy1x20Iew5rcC8L0tRVuhgirACAIrYGXi8aSWgFJLZcn5/s1600/compq_apr13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGOo1_XxOKnfP6K_J48J1wVxp99Bkthde4rU0bf3rZReLfFU8BauASuZ2VwlePfkEcSsK1yIHMtD0fg1swzFhA4ySDHD3OesHQ9Vxb0PmRsLr8-fiJTInFkhWnYBKdfIfecI7Ms7qFy1x20Iew5rcC8L0tRVuhgirACAIrYGXi8aSWgFJLZcn5/s1600/compq_apr13.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Bitcoin has been the unusual steady ship as it works to improve itself after an extensive sell off. There should be enough to see a test of the 200-day MA as part of a larger base recovery. Technicals are net positive.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIlWUvw_vdoaBmukdnBMOZWqYhF3Ixyl-xsTB-TaYjzlJnacthNqAmMprq4FFFAWZONBjWXnyQ6zXgwJveq2hSHXooH75Z0ICbVRYa8SkgLxaUe3Qc-ARA0DRFNbYa6omjuSy-Zy-vG_amtquUNQOwdrh9ZkX25xc28ynxJdEKoCOfhmYU9f42/s1600/btcusd_apr13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIlWUvw_vdoaBmukdnBMOZWqYhF3Ixyl-xsTB-TaYjzlJnacthNqAmMprq4FFFAWZONBjWXnyQ6zXgwJveq2hSHXooH75Z0ICbVRYa8SkgLxaUe3Qc-ARA0DRFNbYa6omjuSy-Zy-vG_amtquUNQOwdrh9ZkX25xc28ynxJdEKoCOfhmYU9f42/s1600/btcusd_apr13.png"/></a></div> <p>The one index that managed a new high and has accelerated higher is the Semiconductor Index. The gaps may amount to a blow off top, but given the index came close to testing its 200-day MA it has probably done enough to cool down and go again.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYhReoBUXCCAyUbE_B5QHe8L4dvRL5xonAmCPIaeUXORS-7Nr1MajpRj0hGPLkcDk083JRbnXWKfsl_fFkPDx3g_lbdsf6tpd7_Fei-2dD6zi2zYWor1tSTDqVY4bFVKJC6vA1M19fL4d3AXLvT1_2g3DxAiVr2xit0IpuedU7ll_Uu6yVEloj/s1600/sox_apr13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYhReoBUXCCAyUbE_B5QHe8L4dvRL5xonAmCPIaeUXORS-7Nr1MajpRj0hGPLkcDk083JRbnXWKfsl_fFkPDx3g_lbdsf6tpd7_Fei-2dD6zi2zYWor1tSTDqVY4bFVKJC6vA1M19fL4d3AXLvT1_2g3DxAiVr2xit0IpuedU7ll_Uu6yVEloj/s1600/sox_apr13.png"/></a></div> <p>For now, expectation is for rallies to continue and challenge all-time highs, when some profit taking can be expected. From there, we can reassess markets.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-21785403156989511162026-04-09T23:49:00.003+01:002026-04-09T23:49:54.747+01:00<p>If you a follower of JC Parets you would be looking at a (very) bullish market outlook. I would be more cautious, but today's action has done much to negate some of the lingering bearishness from yesterday. However, markets in a trading range should be considered neutral until all-time highs are breached, but long term investors can accumulate.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped higher yesterday, but closed with a bearish black candlestick. However, today's buying managed to createa a bullish engulfing pattern to negate the bearish black candlestick. In addition, yesterday's gap created an "island reversal" which is a significant (bullish) reversal pattern. Note, this gap can't close for the pattern to be true. Technicals are improving with a 'buy' trigger in stochastics to match earlier ones in On-Balance-Volume and MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnfNLRTkUAZwQc9mT-ttQlvVdyxVw4Um41fnLy93aDkR0CFWMPNfDqUja1Zsu1zE5AZDIW-Jq5rXB2A8fNeScGfW6fbnceHSLj-86hBWKIWBDwm1dcMmyZMNfqOEYKXVuIQPLxzuuKc15ctKekDkM4yhTNJzKFC45PNl7RwX9-Y72tdXqi1vma/s1600/iwm_sep9b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnfNLRTkUAZwQc9mT-ttQlvVdyxVw4Um41fnLy93aDkR0CFWMPNfDqUja1Zsu1zE5AZDIW-Jq5rXB2A8fNeScGfW6fbnceHSLj-86hBWKIWBDwm1dcMmyZMNfqOEYKXVuIQPLxzuuKc15ctKekDkM4yhTNJzKFC45PNl7RwX9-Y72tdXqi1vma/s1600/iwm_sep9b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P gapped past 200-day MA and today closed above its 50-day MA, but tomorrow will come up against declining resistance defined by the series of mini-swing highs from January/February. Technicals saw a new 'buy' signal in stochastics.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpqhzkI6gL1M3nEELMXrEFt4TaK1OqADiPh-QkXRo9rt0xw7QI0lk2kWJ3_9flZr-chSm_XPRmdU3iVR2N3d3ladEYrXTSzPAHZstxvRWGZfgYs_nyqxDMybwSsXvXZh4CMmQhks2eL-UDyxXqtUhgVjY3Oh-CdiOVJyDF7zVGRXhWPqFSj_8/s1600/spx_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpqhzkI6gL1M3nEELMXrEFt4TaK1OqADiPh-QkXRo9rt0xw7QI0lk2kWJ3_9flZr-chSm_XPRmdU3iVR2N3d3ladEYrXTSzPAHZstxvRWGZfgYs_nyqxDMybwSsXvXZh4CMmQhks2eL-UDyxXqtUhgVjY3Oh-CdiOVJyDF7zVGRXhWPqFSj_8/s1600/spx_apr9.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq also finished with a bearish 'black' candlestick on Wednesday, but managed to negate that today with a bullish engulfing pattern today. Today's action also retained a close above its 50-day MA along with a close above the stochastic mid-line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnRpeKZiphUMOSuI7MN_mXGIT9uguH8DMzGcrKW40xC-tSVMfHszKKXRyabO_v3YEnrYwUM212vIQJ3_AdhcHjIWzpDsvn_nZKt8GZpAGcUUYjPF60fALJl4pj-2L-BwIpg-6dYcjBbxqx-_dlhtRfuqaxR5BF1-So6A87uInICfpiWU2Ek6h7/s1600/compq_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnRpeKZiphUMOSuI7MN_mXGIT9uguH8DMzGcrKW40xC-tSVMfHszKKXRyabO_v3YEnrYwUM212vIQJ3_AdhcHjIWzpDsvn_nZKt8GZpAGcUUYjPF60fALJl4pj-2L-BwIpg-6dYcjBbxqx-_dlhtRfuqaxR5BF1-So6A87uInICfpiWU2Ek6h7/s1600/compq_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin managed to keep its bullish rally intact, but now does so on net bullish technicals.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC4giUP87Lg8uClNkwhR4ZYkzxmnj44SBlh75P7HoDNuXv-PATjVShVGUrhGbn8KDTbPjRwjBLQg5rZgFBsatGnvJfzxNWxxeyqHcQbbxR7jXDcs3cPdntRuHGVwteKXHzmQLiIXiwWIFkZzEapODHU3UgKHUnOqt8U4JuTUKUIV-Oeod1rAll/s1600/btcusd_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC4giUP87Lg8uClNkwhR4ZYkzxmnj44SBlh75P7HoDNuXv-PATjVShVGUrhGbn8KDTbPjRwjBLQg5rZgFBsatGnvJfzxNWxxeyqHcQbbxR7jXDcs3cPdntRuHGVwteKXHzmQLiIXiwWIFkZzEapODHU3UgKHUnOqt8U4JuTUKUIV-Oeod1rAll/s1600/btcusd_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>However, the Semiconductor Index managed a new breakout that does mark itself as a new bull market on net bullish technicals.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAeD4D1MZP7SsvrKh-dDlfUk7UFhsv95weFCcByPt8jkbOr0BV_Fw4wm3miuOCM2Iw5SJPRFLZt0nTtcCyIPXzmKh-dn_HNTBkwUQ_cQ_NM9FKkUu9Q52zjAyJza0fixMazb77phIGJ9udx23gJI5-nfAndczLgwVLjrSqUJya848Ay9Ks_Vl1/s1600/sox_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAeD4D1MZP7SsvrKh-dDlfUk7UFhsv95weFCcByPt8jkbOr0BV_Fw4wm3miuOCM2Iw5SJPRFLZt0nTtcCyIPXzmKh-dn_HNTBkwUQ_cQ_NM9FKkUu9Q52zjAyJza0fixMazb77phIGJ9udx23gJI5-nfAndczLgwVLjrSqUJya848Ay9Ks_Vl1/s1600/sox_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, we want to ensure today's gains are not undercut by any selling. A consolidation doji, or equivalent, would perhaps be the best outcome outside of another day's gain. It's just hard, given the state of the Iranian ceasefire, that tomorrow will deliver another bullish day.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-73809353921091146832026-04-07T22:38:00.002+01:002026-04-07T22:38:43.881+01:00<p>So we have markets coming to (or just beyond) resistance and a Trump deadline for Iran. Consequently, we are in position to see a sizable move tomorrow. Those markets that have broken resistance are signalling towards a positive outcome (or perhaps, a kick-the-can deadline for Iran). But if news is bad and we gap away from resistance, then many markets will be back at 200-day MAs.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is approaching converged resistance from $255, declining resistance and 50-day MA. Today's buying was on low volume, but counts as relative "accumulation" and marks itself as a possible bottom breakout.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQYLI7DzfiG57WEhgiIHlET9zbTg_fp-iidhrkM4gKCbIhYTWKWBr8OTPbjROJCIOqu_mrD5GGtPLXUt6upQpFIE-4Gn77uH9oTBKZ-dKlnkF0tKFHzHX8xIO41KucdRhL-dy8QBRbOOUnSp0HFmo_HflqTwXTNLILaD38RQbqfuWC2uZ-gf0D/s1600/iwm_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQYLI7DzfiG57WEhgiIHlET9zbTg_fp-iidhrkM4gKCbIhYTWKWBr8OTPbjROJCIOqu_mrD5GGtPLXUt6upQpFIE-4Gn77uH9oTBKZ-dKlnkF0tKFHzHX8xIO41KucdRhL-dy8QBRbOOUnSp0HFmo_HflqTwXTNLILaD38RQbqfuWC2uZ-gf0D/s1600/iwm_apr7.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P breakout included a MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'buy'. Today's bullish 'hammer' marked buyer interest on the retest of support. If there is bad news from Iran then we need to consider the possibility of a 'bull trap', and with the index below the 200-day MA it could prove to be an ugly day. Note the measured move targets (red arrow).</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQLu5NeFvPAkamUke1gFShjZHy_vMswDNU0H7rxjrbjgB9M31xblD-HyiORbyhyphenhyphenaSLpyyHGomUYVrZ5SCgPPFrtdQu8bDko4oymoztYW-5EaoSXYsZoYO9GjgbY9F5vlj4s_PrK4GCc5W4aR_aRu9vRbo09EGQY8KynEczKz6LHvsXDTQqMmYB/s1600/spx_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQLu5NeFvPAkamUke1gFShjZHy_vMswDNU0H7rxjrbjgB9M31xblD-HyiORbyhyphenhyphenaSLpyyHGomUYVrZ5SCgPPFrtdQu8bDko4oymoztYW-5EaoSXYsZoYO9GjgbY9F5vlj4s_PrK4GCc5W4aR_aRu9vRbo09EGQY8KynEczKz6LHvsXDTQqMmYB/s1600/spx_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq finished bang on resistance in what could be a picture perfect short. We have intermediate stochastics back on the midline, with price at declining resistance and 20-day MA, with the 200-day MA overhead, and a 50-day MA moving towards a "death cross". On the bullish side, we have MACD and On-Balance-Volume 'buy' triggers, on higher volume accucumulation, and bullish 'hammer', but a single day's selling on bad news is likely to undercut the 'hammer' low. Buyer beware.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_O4zKrRQr9nLX45vafFhiHZifZ5f8vyRELaVK3vBk3ZHIiTvtRpy1ExuueBp14nLC6uXgqaXyLD-b3ssb1NVIWzmqL7rf1E7KsB_HKECJgDs81d7XM_FFOyozyZbvMV6o4m46simBwJVFz3fWkl0eZJfTGQjFiBHybxwPMjv40FEYQr28PXYy/s1600/compq_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_O4zKrRQr9nLX45vafFhiHZifZ5f8vyRELaVK3vBk3ZHIiTvtRpy1ExuueBp14nLC6uXgqaXyLD-b3ssb1NVIWzmqL7rf1E7KsB_HKECJgDs81d7XM_FFOyozyZbvMV6o4m46simBwJVFz3fWkl0eZJfTGQjFiBHybxwPMjv40FEYQr28PXYy/s1600/compq_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has edged higher, but we are still awaiting the acceleration from the development of a right-hand-base. But the longer this basing goes on, the better long term investment this becomes, even if this asset reacts negatively to Iranian news.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO-xC3fljSsQD4KZoXY_8sbeCCuFoBY_LV-DQnjID3xnb_6D4ATvEwsfe9cipYVXXG9KSTEgroYGxRMlAt4Lz30lKqg8B2O4kiVFnifQW21acWtY9FQuar_XOwah2jE6gV3dNkMuRiQuCX_UBQZEnk0JfhvikwNbbYnBM2zFXsllvAQPwlKwbj/s1600/btcusd_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO-xC3fljSsQD4KZoXY_8sbeCCuFoBY_LV-DQnjID3xnb_6D4ATvEwsfe9cipYVXXG9KSTEgroYGxRMlAt4Lz30lKqg8B2O4kiVFnifQW21acWtY9FQuar_XOwah2jE6gV3dNkMuRiQuCX_UBQZEnk0JfhvikwNbbYnBM2zFXsllvAQPwlKwbj/s1600/btcusd_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial is at its 200-day MA with a series of spike lows denoting demand, although technicals are more bearish. On positive news, the 'bear trap' is well established and is typically a strong reversal signal. So, even if there is sell off tomorrow, it would take a few days worth of weakness to negate the 'bear trap'.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyO2qNRlvBOTtHyNQcX62CYjyeiGeGS2vPVJqQoMqV-qe6VRn3LHt9Mk8Xg-2m_InF3JYDA0-qpjr2Y9lsl6B8mD8FCy1UQeTU5vB62CpvNCxGPE_QlDpdNY9IiCUbK1xok6QevVxDtwgb-XoQ5xN-zS8iGuDL7m9Nrvq84lng6Iz4igI2GCfi/s1600/indu_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyO2qNRlvBOTtHyNQcX62CYjyeiGeGS2vPVJqQoMqV-qe6VRn3LHt9Mk8Xg-2m_InF3JYDA0-qpjr2Y9lsl6B8mD8FCy1UQeTU5vB62CpvNCxGPE_QlDpdNY9IiCUbK1xok6QevVxDtwgb-XoQ5xN-zS8iGuDL7m9Nrvq84lng6Iz4igI2GCfi/s1600/indu_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>We will know in the next few hours what Trump has in store for Iran, but for markets, the S&P Investor Survey suggests we are in a 2022 scenario that could see bearishness extend into this year's election.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PGfPBmRO1ur7FdpHVIEXPpao4jStLxa8QbCoa3B9qhnRIC869kZ28LrpNkjYxpefkvsK9bEEYyzTnqfSZpuDIktrd6foRXHrN582kJ8qaCBMTme8Qy-PI0kmvfr-1hbLR0PGCsydFNGc8RrSVNCqzAS9CVBDqxImjspljYFxRxK8lXL8ox78/s1600/aaii_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="800" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PGfPBmRO1ur7FdpHVIEXPpao4jStLxa8QbCoa3B9qhnRIC869kZ28LrpNkjYxpefkvsK9bEEYyzTnqfSZpuDIktrd6foRXHrN582kJ8qaCBMTme8Qy-PI0kmvfr-1hbLR0PGCsydFNGc8RrSVNCqzAS9CVBDqxImjspljYFxRxK8lXL8ox78/s1600/aaii_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>Tik tok...</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-24437162339202496492026-04-05T22:11:00.004+01:002026-04-05T22:11:52.424+01:00<p>Markets swung back towards buyers, although there is plenty of work to do before we can call a rally. Best of the action was the S&P as it cleared declining resistance but has still to challenge its 20-day MA. There was a new 'buy' trigger in the MACD, but it's a very weak signal given the indicator is swimming below the MACD zero line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisgsPefpptS4hrLggD2DMXRFzB63Qfu0tlm3Pd_szWvwmusg9fvOCblrj9CKCw1h5FY1INfpnn7vqIx4koBPhdACutonwgHeVeekfi29foiJrjWhKNHocfuwCFclzJAN2uqkzB2pHDN1pdvi7toTN18_nlh4x0PszYmFpXzblPPqoyhs6rGHvI/s1600/spx_apr4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisgsPefpptS4hrLggD2DMXRFzB63Qfu0tlm3Pd_szWvwmusg9fvOCblrj9CKCw1h5FY1INfpnn7vqIx4koBPhdACutonwgHeVeekfi29foiJrjWhKNHocfuwCFclzJAN2uqkzB2pHDN1pdvi7toTN18_nlh4x0PszYmFpXzblPPqoyhs6rGHvI/s1600/spx_apr4.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed above it 20-day MA but still has to challenge more pertintent resistance from resistance highs. Having successfully defended its 200-day MA it now adds new 'buy' signals in On-Balance-Volume and MACD. The index also enjoys a relative perforance advantage over its peers.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJ7WzOq2b6knGDj3aG1tFBReNrGBL3oN2dyjVD36k6KpJVAOlaRGLPJzX2IOKay5669NH7wmnTmTnFXBxpHX3SF-noyKtw_hyWTw5kgn0__kASSXt4tpDO8QV5uJSxvJN1q_s6y4lgy-I7q2L2sS9BP9lo6w7gOACVfay2ajcg0BjIheZeB0z/s1600/iwm_apr4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJ7WzOq2b6knGDj3aG1tFBReNrGBL3oN2dyjVD36k6KpJVAOlaRGLPJzX2IOKay5669NH7wmnTmTnFXBxpHX3SF-noyKtw_hyWTw5kgn0__kASSXt4tpDO8QV5uJSxvJN1q_s6y4lgy-I7q2L2sS9BP9lo6w7gOACVfay2ajcg0BjIheZeB0z/s1600/iwm_apr4.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq remains below range support and declining resistance. The past 3-days of buying was good with 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, but was otherwise unchanged and is still bearish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8575B9eOP4pF3F5xJ40kLlTeXNsEnp8fEpjYh2LEdWBqgweJO80PRvSJUP-9ZmmIdC5O0QkdrcFxcijJuQ1pTCNtFILLXvo10zmi13jqy9babqZC8-ok-wr4CWgowjolqnzmCAJVPS_n5xLFgs-Yeaa4EwWjTki5mExYU8kcuMgInM7rXAK4z/s1600/compq_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8575B9eOP4pF3F5xJ40kLlTeXNsEnp8fEpjYh2LEdWBqgweJO80PRvSJUP-9ZmmIdC5O0QkdrcFxcijJuQ1pTCNtFILLXvo10zmi13jqy9babqZC8-ok-wr4CWgowjolqnzmCAJVPS_n5xLFgs-Yeaa4EwWjTki5mExYU8kcuMgInM7rXAK4z/s1600/compq_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin hasn't changed its picture either, but sides with bulls and is still a 'buying' opportunity for those looking for a trade. Technically, there was a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and a potential 'buy' trigger in the MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFzbNazeBao9SR4-JuGpVqFP3P2trgX7oIkMQ7f_p06qKCgiG2GKWCOHrNMiWP3hbpA_vIPK458oIfzIpJCxYI5zhLIe5b_oZXt9llAK1O8Xdv3a_4A3Z7dSNvE8DuuYDUFeOmeuC4sIVxShHF8hx2uHalho1QGo5yAPPiGxsxo1dNcjQvqsKX/s1600/btcusd_apr5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFzbNazeBao9SR4-JuGpVqFP3P2trgX7oIkMQ7f_p06qKCgiG2GKWCOHrNMiWP3hbpA_vIPK458oIfzIpJCxYI5zhLIe5b_oZXt9llAK1O8Xdv3a_4A3Z7dSNvE8DuuYDUFeOmeuC4sIVxShHF8hx2uHalho1QGo5yAPPiGxsxo1dNcjQvqsKX/s1600/btcusd_apr5.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully back-tested its breakout and defended the 20-day MA. Next is a move for a push above 47K. Supporting the breakout are 'buy' signals in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, and is outperforming peer indices.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOP00yc-j16U_CC0xFiBoU5KQOz2GdVUAv1y75FG4wo-3qx617QCx_TkRxsqwI4T1x7aLkRLtuKZ4qq0gx7Ef6ZldL3-d00dlWartxv5J6YrQtM7pDAum1xOAsto6r-oVV5V-Bwdt3D6DcJ5QDvbV_ob4MbY-R9pZDaapZXFO-WGDuKdHX6Mz6/s1600/DJIA_apr5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOP00yc-j16U_CC0xFiBoU5KQOz2GdVUAv1y75FG4wo-3qx617QCx_TkRxsqwI4T1x7aLkRLtuKZ4qq0gx7Ef6ZldL3-d00dlWartxv5J6YrQtM7pDAum1xOAsto6r-oVV5V-Bwdt3D6DcJ5QDvbV_ob4MbY-R9pZDaapZXFO-WGDuKdHX6Mz6/s1600/DJIA_apr5.png"/></a></div> <p>Indices that have posted gains over the past 3 days are unlikely to post a fourth, or at least, aren't worth a long trade. Bitcoin remains the best opportunity for longs. Shorts don't have a whole lot to work with - maybe the Nasdaq will offer a short on a test of 47K.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-45901840489265033422026-04-01T23:10:00.004+01:002026-04-01T23:10:59.435+01:00<p>The positivity generated by yesterday's buying found itself under pressure today as 'gravestone doji' and 'inverse hammers' dominated. The good news was that support from weekly charts held and there is enough of a gap to offer a few days of wiggle room before sellers return. The problem is we should see selling tomorrow if these candlesticks play to form. The bearishness of these candles is negated by a close above today's highs.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is perhaps the most vulnerable as it finished with the 'gravestone doji'. However, the recovery of the 200-day MA should give some grounds for optimism, and there were new 'buy' signals in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. There appears to be a buyer around $243.75, so pay attention to volume action near this price level.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA3tGuySQsKqf2ypwH89jihp4SJBWC_yuCI7zOc4zOAXaxA3AL_Wt_x-CWyAKzB5IuZ1Wex6pDPlEPpRDk6Wf1UAmbElK37tAHd1Sw8j6chglHr4GyVjx_GftYuSvVtYzUpxq_FC-ha4pl99NHeb4m3857zqmflwDTQwFBzi8dhrGg6g5cDuJa/s1600/iwm_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA3tGuySQsKqf2ypwH89jihp4SJBWC_yuCI7zOc4zOAXaxA3AL_Wt_x-CWyAKzB5IuZ1Wex6pDPlEPpRDk6Wf1UAmbElK37tAHd1Sw8j6chglHr4GyVjx_GftYuSvVtYzUpxq_FC-ha4pl99NHeb4m3857zqmflwDTQwFBzi8dhrGg6g5cDuJa/s1600/iwm_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P tagged its 20-day MA on today's high, but technicals remain bearish. While it managed to recover its 200-day MA it's close enough to see another test as soon as tomorrow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlb40wiukmVGOou_-2nxPhsb0faKr_pX5JYuS-vsFtOIQxPAm8Hjv2zpM0NoaOkBq1vIuinLIXEA5BZ6sy4RZ0rEYleS0lI7POto9r1K4ljVdeItEdGSpMp3-pYMGwwEve80q5-hM978C5joRQTSDGOcitFJn4FY3xG-bYlwZlS-gvIhL2GsnX/s1600/spxew_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlb40wiukmVGOou_-2nxPhsb0faKr_pX5JYuS-vsFtOIQxPAm8Hjv2zpM0NoaOkBq1vIuinLIXEA5BZ6sy4RZ0rEYleS0lI7POto9r1K4ljVdeItEdGSpMp3-pYMGwwEve80q5-hM978C5joRQTSDGOcitFJn4FY3xG-bYlwZlS-gvIhL2GsnX/s1600/spxew_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>It had looked like the weighted S&P was about to deliver a resistance break and a possible 'bear trap'. There is still the potential for a 'bear trap', but it would need to maintain a close above 6,550 to do so; an intraday spike below this level would be acceptable.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIpOFTBAzKrgdzCgGL_7qEEi36EhLaIJgc7r8NXJ0lUK7wG4eZ1Y7ESnbclXTsFcvj9FB2-Y76LJ5GKcog6yX3IWGsyX_sOPJ0hMWsJ2HSpVPme-ddc0z9Em0nDPhL7_Y3LXlDc2I1_xTdxHuXwvrWDLN7F6FthVHK0HpJwUQ3_ltHRiGpScU/s1600/spx_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIpOFTBAzKrgdzCgGL_7qEEi36EhLaIJgc7r8NXJ0lUK7wG4eZ1Y7ESnbclXTsFcvj9FB2-Y76LJ5GKcog6yX3IWGsyX_sOPJ0hMWsJ2HSpVPme-ddc0z9Em0nDPhL7_Y3LXlDc2I1_xTdxHuXwvrWDLN7F6FthVHK0HpJwUQ3_ltHRiGpScU/s1600/spx_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is struggling to recover its breakdown and undercut of 200-day MA. It found itself tagging 20-day MA resistance before taking a modest end-of-day reversal. A case could be made for an aggressive short with a stop on a close above its 20-day MA. Technicals are firmly bearish. There isn't a whole lot to like here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBak2IcloGjLPyUYUKjk5otRs5RZMrJCJMpzi473f6_pBZC4NtackIMKoenbcNw0mfRJHM8dytzSTaJAg8ibKkcd22FUbHeRjaAxVfp-_0ytRE7RsJeEp_cWMp7Dh9kRFregDB3WTQTmPl4Z9j12BjKuolrkxRS-GufetImYmMMlvjJrdkO2Y-/s1600/compq_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBak2IcloGjLPyUYUKjk5otRs5RZMrJCJMpzi473f6_pBZC4NtackIMKoenbcNw0mfRJHM8dytzSTaJAg8ibKkcd22FUbHeRjaAxVfp-_0ytRE7RsJeEp_cWMp7Dh9kRFregDB3WTQTmPl4Z9j12BjKuolrkxRS-GufetImYmMMlvjJrdkO2Y-/s1600/compq_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>It's a similar story for the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100, although it did stage a bounce from its measured move target. Today's small 'black' candlestick is not one to base hope on, particularly as technicals are net bearish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5AGHqiXPRO-46QJqgPr4LXhke3L6kZKlO3gO5QPffuaZ2e5C1AfHdpm4VghT9JpYcwEqpSTGHmSL7KkGGhMTddGR6NA5yqCJfnr1Y4senG-PPaPs9CAyZLRug9q4z0WvQ5JQQGCNcBhvncYdLjH98XoXCkjgl3sb8s4Cyuuyv14UUTHfH8LfY/s1600/qqew_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5AGHqiXPRO-46QJqgPr4LXhke3L6kZKlO3gO5QPffuaZ2e5C1AfHdpm4VghT9JpYcwEqpSTGHmSL7KkGGhMTddGR6NA5yqCJfnr1Y4senG-PPaPs9CAyZLRug9q4z0WvQ5JQQGCNcBhvncYdLjH98XoXCkjgl3sb8s4Cyuuyv14UUTHfH8LfY/s1600/qqew_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin hasn't flamed out on its latest 'buy', but it has become a scrappy affair. There is a new 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume and is on the verge of a new 'buy' signal in the MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmqFzfvvLNqCAYlUBxRG87pLi2WZQQYqhK7tlMjQpMmybfIJb8AsU3XkDxUSkn4I5azvX-azqXIlupL6D0Q_tg07LF0RQAoFx8lgtEhEUKbiOtjHH9LXP5b0cY7KQrEq2c9IGEEgZezHeQmdocxUjfCRvYzVC8XHVp9buKQFQrcD4GpTRCa4nu/s1600/btcusd_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmqFzfvvLNqCAYlUBxRG87pLi2WZQQYqhK7tlMjQpMmybfIJb8AsU3XkDxUSkn4I5azvX-azqXIlupL6D0Q_tg07LF0RQAoFx8lgtEhEUKbiOtjHH9LXP5b0cY7KQrEq2c9IGEEgZezHeQmdocxUjfCRvYzVC8XHVp9buKQFQrcD4GpTRCa4nu/s1600/btcusd_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Best of the action may come from the Dow Industrial Average. It cleared declining resistance and left a 'bear trap' in the process. It has a similar reversal candlestick as other indices, but it has a little more to work with having successfully defended the October swing low. If it can trade sideways from here and not undercut 45.5K again it will be well placed to mount a new rally.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh92NvnBckqKjXsIzlvZy-KrSVAHF8zTHrqkG7Gls1Iww4c6zCcBU5lDNmQUd1EBJlb0oWLtvi1DDuZ1LeipT5m2ZJOdqIJoASMxTHgFj6siqsSmNYjnc6_wWbV_ziDYMEacIjKC7EQcm7sRxES-5so03_JAmX3OynQ2MvTc38kUNtr1CXfnZlD/s1600/indu_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh92NvnBckqKjXsIzlvZy-KrSVAHF8zTHrqkG7Gls1Iww4c6zCcBU5lDNmQUd1EBJlb0oWLtvi1DDuZ1LeipT5m2ZJOdqIJoASMxTHgFj6siqsSmNYjnc6_wWbV_ziDYMEacIjKC7EQcm7sRxES-5so03_JAmX3OynQ2MvTc38kUNtr1CXfnZlD/s1600/indu_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>We have workable support for the Dow, Russell 2000, Bitcoin and equal-weighted S&P; some look better than others. There is not really a trade on offer unless some of these make a return to near yesterday's open price on an intraday spike - but you would need a solid last half-hour to suggest there was real demand lurking.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-51493906980171287972026-03-30T22:37:00.002+01:002026-03-30T22:37:58.735+01:00<p>There is one thing a chaotic Trump can't control and that's the market, and the market is not pricing for good news any time soon. What good news there is, is that this decline is likely to lead to a good buying opportunity, similar to one last seen in April 2025 (as per the tables visible at the end of every post; if you just follow these signals you would be catching most of the major lows). We are only at the start of such a decline, but it's one I will be tracking.</p> <p>The strongest index is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It only just undercut its 200-day MA, and may yet defend this moving average, but it has a tough fight ahead of it. Technicals are net negative, but it's outperforming the Nasdaq, and posted a distribution day yesterday. If this does manage to recover it will set up a bounce opportunity and will be one of the few buying opportunities, but to do so, it has to close above its 200-day MA, ideally on a bullish hammer or similar reversal candlestick.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPiXp70hUlmGWR0CoHyBmhshSSH_Czng__-wcKEs7FdnslA8yXnsywqsP_G8QQwk9a-MOp53nDM3_4zrgTavWLbugP23ZVuOo8o1fIt5e3RH1Vrr4c4DbgwfLJAHxRJxex6d-MIzJqc73c2Pq80H614yiQWPjO_dO1vQCqqwtj7JWxeYM9rrhz/s1600/iwm_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPiXp70hUlmGWR0CoHyBmhshSSH_Czng__-wcKEs7FdnslA8yXnsywqsP_G8QQwk9a-MOp53nDM3_4zrgTavWLbugP23ZVuOo8o1fIt5e3RH1Vrr4c4DbgwfLJAHxRJxex6d-MIzJqc73c2Pq80H614yiQWPjO_dO1vQCqqwtj7JWxeYM9rrhz/s1600/iwm_mar30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P failed in its attempt to recover its 200-day MA and is paying the price now. Technicals are net negative but it's still managing to outperform the Nasdaq... I have marked in a measured move target lower for the index, which puts it in around 6,100, that's also an 8% loss from its 200-day MA - not enough for a strong 'buy' signal, but the index would be trading in an accumulation zone.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3j7WbMY3Oic_3MIaaDGURnJqoD9_U3_3kAnwdEvb_AZCLpXjz2DbMVA72wTcoj4Thl4OcCh5c-sYbmlVuV2dFfASiUx95XdEDHL00BKPxKWXYjQAzCgH5Ws84LzwiSa6V5rHLSiMqblbrGRyvv7bHqBupG3p3sYE48B5yyi38Z98G7BJPsK-j/s1600/spx_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3j7WbMY3Oic_3MIaaDGURnJqoD9_U3_3kAnwdEvb_AZCLpXjz2DbMVA72wTcoj4Thl4OcCh5c-sYbmlVuV2dFfASiUx95XdEDHL00BKPxKWXYjQAzCgH5Ws84LzwiSa6V5rHLSiMqblbrGRyvv7bHqBupG3p3sYE48B5yyi38Z98G7BJPsK-j/s1600/spx_mar30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Speaking of measured move targets, the Nasdaq is close to hitting its measured move target down around 20K, or 10% below its 200-day MA, also an accumulation zone. What's also likely to happen soon is a 'death cross' between its 50-day MA and 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj16Q62-0dTBHCWv1THSd2sdVQ_sGGsMWuJm-ql3k4TgqIP58kM2z9o5-GolxufGqh9uiUNi9DyczcPSHV0i8BMev9Qg-Gw-N9p9Or1aVsT5DHo44866bWwZyIBdIfynL9GjWwn2OV0A2F-GJa3pKeaCrIAJXtVkOJJb-trQcf6DyWtxjrninO9/s1600/compq_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj16Q62-0dTBHCWv1THSd2sdVQ_sGGsMWuJm-ql3k4TgqIP58kM2z9o5-GolxufGqh9uiUNi9DyczcPSHV0i8BMev9Qg-Gw-N9p9Or1aVsT5DHo44866bWwZyIBdIfynL9GjWwn2OV0A2F-GJa3pKeaCrIAJXtVkOJJb-trQcf6DyWtxjrninO9/s1600/compq_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Speaking of the Nasdaq and S&P, if you look at measured move targets you see a convergence with 2024 highs, a good chance we will see a support test, and perhaps a buying opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhhuhD33T_1tpTfbPbgocBCkyZ_UekSF5CaMKTpLbqzfnjNHzh56J3kSX_wdYJPZMfk_ovgC2USYQGTQBq3_dEmkRMw-kURGv2pxJcztORemzloB_72ZwFMUop1eCApeQa6gjzoT4tfXHBs1TUNfw03NJEu5Jt6WLvmYfHVh2k7wzB8L4ikuWB/s1600/spx_mar30w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhhuhD33T_1tpTfbPbgocBCkyZ_UekSF5CaMKTpLbqzfnjNHzh56J3kSX_wdYJPZMfk_ovgC2USYQGTQBq3_dEmkRMw-kURGv2pxJcztORemzloB_72ZwFMUop1eCApeQa6gjzoT4tfXHBs1TUNfw03NJEu5Jt6WLvmYfHVh2k7wzB8L4ikuWB/s1600/spx_mar30w.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBxt0fxd8mRyAydrhjdL9bnTYDnm5ey0YMGpnUEsRKPB78-VSFH62ImKWjKFS1obeWxD16rv3VzfqXleGxtC5U6eQkCqdcpl0lz61aKSH1o8v1W-vCzNaPS_XKRO2qM-1mEMoZ9c5EHNrMRZdqDLYvBIjft1ixoQHnroxiuYwcdEfCXkSjiCne/s1600/compq_mar30w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBxt0fxd8mRyAydrhjdL9bnTYDnm5ey0YMGpnUEsRKPB78-VSFH62ImKWjKFS1obeWxD16rv3VzfqXleGxtC5U6eQkCqdcpl0lz61aKSH1o8v1W-vCzNaPS_XKRO2qM-1mEMoZ9c5EHNrMRZdqDLYvBIjft1ixoQHnroxiuYwcdEfCXkSjiCne/s1600/compq_mar30w.png"/></a></div> <p>And such a test is playing out in the Dow Industrial Average now - time to buy?</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFuTuLT4Kq_IVoAKpVbfSCom44x5naOw0gazXhSc9Zy_17h9BKougkcVZQCUMevKw8MN9cn9sHpPL5xxDKUODYVj9sSPbKBEhGmr4NhH7JVUH9S57aXhebviz1CemERhTAJ33RRQ_HmLjhaRultKC-I0aRLGye_2w7x9elrt89ZZf6EuSRc5ic/s1600/djia_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFuTuLT4Kq_IVoAKpVbfSCom44x5naOw0gazXhSc9Zy_17h9BKougkcVZQCUMevKw8MN9cn9sHpPL5xxDKUODYVj9sSPbKBEhGmr4NhH7JVUH9S57aXhebviz1CemERhTAJ33RRQ_HmLjhaRultKC-I0aRLGye_2w7x9elrt89ZZf6EuSRc5ic/s1600/djia_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin wasn't able to deliver on its last 'buy' signal, but it's offering another one now on today's higher volume accumulation.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4sS3jCCpD58e7nH16Qtnuc8mZqjD29rujT-Ce6xGU2Yf1LgSAaY_zCtdkeYTkzWXh0M3cgjTPrS_kNPBpmujuj0NBnt2fOIbqM7a0WVGXwbKLtlnPR2ZKpubMCVNDT7QHf2u9ibevXg1aXiToHJrH6v-u-JpicVMR5FtVGilinKCPmj9O2Hlz/s1600/btcusd_m30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4sS3jCCpD58e7nH16Qtnuc8mZqjD29rujT-Ce6xGU2Yf1LgSAaY_zCtdkeYTkzWXh0M3cgjTPrS_kNPBpmujuj0NBnt2fOIbqM7a0WVGXwbKLtlnPR2ZKpubMCVNDT7QHf2u9ibevXg1aXiToHJrH6v-u-JpicVMR5FtVGilinKCPmj9O2Hlz/s1600/btcusd_m30.png"/></a></div> <p>On the flip side, Semiconductors took a big hit and having reached its measured move target upside, it now will be looking for a test of 6,400 support.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv89e6bP7DqXrlSCLfmCfG_ZLg4DrxLVC5Uw9OLNasfwwJYWM7SKocPj2u5dHzhCvv0-O86Ae2wwNI074CrHGGmt1dhXkRl515b2J6IzsDlwm9JX2FT-mWwSX9dI8ZYwrd0b9eHqwWfJLacu7q_J5RtqimixYv668bh69KZ7l2s7npdJDK4wrw/s1600/sox_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv89e6bP7DqXrlSCLfmCfG_ZLg4DrxLVC5Uw9OLNasfwwJYWM7SKocPj2u5dHzhCvv0-O86Ae2wwNI074CrHGGmt1dhXkRl515b2J6IzsDlwm9JX2FT-mWwSX9dI8ZYwrd0b9eHqwWfJLacu7q_J5RtqimixYv668bh69KZ7l2s7npdJDK4wrw/s1600/sox_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Despite the bearishness outgoing bearishness in lead indices, we do have buying opportunities in Bitcoin, Russell 2000, and the Dow Industrial Average. There is a high chance of failure, but big opportunities come with big risk.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-10387750670323714322026-03-26T00:35:00.002+00:002026-03-26T00:35:25.589+00:00<p>It's hard to know what will come next as some markets work bounces off their 200-day MAs, while others struggle below it.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully managed a test of its 200-day MA before rallying, while also leaving a 'bear trap' at $245. Buyers who took advantage of $245 will be sitting pretty, although traders with a shorter time frame may wish to site this out. Today's test of the 20-day MA may instead offer a shorting opportunity, particularly if there is a gap down on Thursday's open. Technicals are slowly recovering, although the MACD trigger 'buy' is a weak signal given the crossover below the bullish zero line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO99NelxXNuET5S7YajJrv9K0PzwkuYpRZFLPbC48DMt3MQs06XxJ9ANv-D5ekPvela0FIdKliRmRqZTCtDUIwtShU25ThpWqr1s2fZDd-dz3QOmybm2SqqLPM9RNn2GqKOVMe6dN0v5reHRbdsyoGh2YDqyjKsJdYjFqzSpHJtbA7FFoFusgu/s1600/iwm_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO99NelxXNuET5S7YajJrv9K0PzwkuYpRZFLPbC48DMt3MQs06XxJ9ANv-D5ekPvela0FIdKliRmRqZTCtDUIwtShU25ThpWqr1s2fZDd-dz3QOmybm2SqqLPM9RNn2GqKOVMe6dN0v5reHRbdsyoGh2YDqyjKsJdYjFqzSpHJtbA7FFoFusgu/s1600/iwm_mar25.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal weighted S&P managed a picture perfect test of its 200-day MA, but the bounce off the moving average is throwing some spike highs below 7,900 that leaves it vulnerable to another run at its 200-day MA. Technicals are net negative, although the index is starting to outperform against its weighted partner.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmPedPt350OFjRab_lh3K65L9pNS7M3mAvAiPqHY3EVSG2Th28Rzti3DZuhu2WW04nVrPkNi_DQN-mTjjGMrPpZ_yWaVMqqHU7hLu19BovbNVpWh6Fzqbf75KgvSu3iyW68jY1SFwZPV9Si1KVeSFTOOlL4LYhcYxX9nHUFMRLFAEkmbkKiSRV/s1600/SPXEW_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmPedPt350OFjRab_lh3K65L9pNS7M3mAvAiPqHY3EVSG2Th28Rzti3DZuhu2WW04nVrPkNi_DQN-mTjjGMrPpZ_yWaVMqqHU7hLu19BovbNVpWh6Fzqbf75KgvSu3iyW68jY1SFwZPV9Si1KVeSFTOOlL4LYhcYxX9nHUFMRLFAEkmbkKiSRV/s1600/SPXEW_mar25.png"/></a></div> <p>Where we have doubts is the regular S&P. The index undercut its 200-day MA last week and the proliferation of spike highs near this average points to supply issues. The index is feeling the pressure, although it still clings to support of the November swing low.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7CFEGif8DBNZWqTewEtgyA9QV8evJfYf3WeLkP9I4QqiTe1af6KLo7YLK6l2eAJE60zEHX3BKeUvPWX0xpT9_8B7Rar2mgJGooNqxJZpLbdvIzCYF8V6n_wffd4HpMvDOFWs8LuJES32krtJY9oTjnZldGB3L1nyPHkA-625-HlFoGT2qa0Ya/s1600/spx_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7CFEGif8DBNZWqTewEtgyA9QV8evJfYf3WeLkP9I4QqiTe1af6KLo7YLK6l2eAJE60zEHX3BKeUvPWX0xpT9_8B7Rar2mgJGooNqxJZpLbdvIzCYF8V6n_wffd4HpMvDOFWs8LuJES32krtJY9oTjnZldGB3L1nyPHkA-625-HlFoGT2qa0Ya/s1600/spx_mar25.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Taking this a step further, the Nasdaq has sliced through both 200-day MA and November swing lows to leave what looks to be the start of a new bear market for the index. Technicals are net bearish, which adds to the pressure. Last November I had drawn a projected measured move target for the index down around 20.3K; a move that would place it around the 15% of historic weak action, altough ideally we want to see an 18% undercut of the 200-day MA to get a good buying signal that puts it in the 10% zone.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LlTcXJehQAs7YQOcJuyXT6K0JbvJbqsx9l3QaGF7KUc0ZJTltehJCYOARdv6VNuL3TpZwNvh2R9MWkdJ6Ymbq6Et8mBzn6iVK3L71SorsmtdE28qQTOKktADsyxoCtZJ2K1XLEJQrmDuRjebMdcbKbim_XswMi6Y9I1FSpoR4cQCTW0OjBQZ/s1600/compq_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LlTcXJehQAs7YQOcJuyXT6K0JbvJbqsx9l3QaGF7KUc0ZJTltehJCYOARdv6VNuL3TpZwNvh2R9MWkdJ6Ymbq6Et8mBzn6iVK3L71SorsmtdE28qQTOKktADsyxoCtZJ2K1XLEJQrmDuRjebMdcbKbim_XswMi6Y9I1FSpoR4cQCTW0OjBQZ/s1600/compq_mar25.png"/></a></div> <p>Another index at an inflection point is the Dow Industrials Average. It had successfully bounced off support of October lows having earlier lost its 200-day MA, but on the move back to the 200-day MA it has started to create spike highs that suggests sellers and shorts dominate on the test. If it can clear its 200-day MA it will offer a long trade opportunity, but it's running out of time to do this.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwMp7uHyIetGvzzlSa5A11swOHBxrcdJZraxq_cBbafHW4uB5kxw1WUGnem8G9OYPvVc8khhBiBuVGvIWCgOj6ecKhogXPAEr1IOuxxxW_cuttcBzwwlbLqqA5YXoV6P-QaRg3QrLfgwCZ965nbdVWC34eBmZ-Rzgwu_EwWEWwIbKjiqGTtjE-/s1600/indu_mar26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwMp7uHyIetGvzzlSa5A11swOHBxrcdJZraxq_cBbafHW4uB5kxw1WUGnem8G9OYPvVc8khhBiBuVGvIWCgOj6ecKhogXPAEr1IOuxxxW_cuttcBzwwlbLqqA5YXoV6P-QaRg3QrLfgwCZ965nbdVWC34eBmZ-Rzgwu_EwWEWwIbKjiqGTtjE-/s1600/indu_mar26.png"/></a></div> <p>It's interesting to see so many indices test their 200-day MAs from above or below. Current action does feel like a significant moment for markets that will set the tone for the rest of the year. Current events favor bears, but markets have done relatively well to resist the political and economic damage.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72337799518444739372026-03-23T23:28:00.003+00:002026-03-23T23:41:44.492+00:00<p>It was an interesting finish to Friday; some indices successfully tested their 20-day MAs - others did not. Pure technical traders could have taken a pop on Friday in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) at their 200-day MAs, knowing that other lead indices were undercutting their 200-day MAs, but it would be a big ask in the age of Trump (unless you were insider trading). Well, markets reacted positively to the announcement that Trump wasn't going to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure, but over the course of the day the majority of market participants didn't believe him, and sellers returned in force.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed a picture perfect tag of the 200-day MA on Friday, but on Monday, the higher volume accumulation racked up by the close of business came with a sizable inverse spike.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYVIif8dUw8IH_kxl4n_ykQlJPe8Yw5-jC_CF3QoVcaAcKOQq3GFf9D6Pz3xMz3XcJt1WOLHkR29IqsIb5gRZKOSjdZs8Yk_e7cElXGHyMQ-5SOmPlpheBbThTGeMecLmfxBhbJsszF__z37VI9IQ5Gd-VKRqSOR8qZphQ1uA1paHhzabQ_cu/s1600/rut_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYVIif8dUw8IH_kxl4n_ykQlJPe8Yw5-jC_CF3QoVcaAcKOQq3GFf9D6Pz3xMz3XcJt1WOLHkR29IqsIb5gRZKOSjdZs8Yk_e7cElXGHyMQ-5SOmPlpheBbThTGeMecLmfxBhbJsszF__z37VI9IQ5Gd-VKRqSOR8qZphQ1uA1paHhzabQ_cu/s1600/rut_mar23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P lost its 200-day MA during the middle of last week, and early buying on Monday looked like a recovery of the 200-day MA was going to happen. However, by the close of business, the index reversed its gains and undercut its 200-day MA once more. This is bad news for bulls.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4tO3xbz2Dr8foKfxPQN7seo9JcCFNdfxso6RsCdZY4bqxckydw59My0tS37y2BgCzhpYN4dO7ipbcFasi9gtr-ooAWf53daKz4Lh6eJkPZN4gGCSjB3CifwXMCkX45y33MOxUkynxqR-kmG_5-dWB-jEJDpZTCWt2FiMDq0epc0oh935H2B0b/s1600/spx_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4tO3xbz2Dr8foKfxPQN7seo9JcCFNdfxso6RsCdZY4bqxckydw59My0tS37y2BgCzhpYN4dO7ipbcFasi9gtr-ooAWf53daKz4Lh6eJkPZN4gGCSjB3CifwXMCkX45y33MOxUkynxqR-kmG_5-dWB-jEJDpZTCWt2FiMDq0epc0oh935H2B0b/s1600/spx_mar23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The other side of this was the equal-weighted S&P, which closed Friday bang on its 200-day MA - rallied - and actually managed to not leave to large an overhead spike. It's a buying opportunity for a bounce, but a bounce which is likely to struggle once it gets to its 20-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUKOCsBoZQ0KKmfJ4SWLs6tJHubzpCZiYCWeIeaj_xS_f7mQcPgwQl6_UvQ3PF4AxSL1yV-pAuTv-I65O-GSKIV7kSF_lMHkspdP93nO3iIuBbg4jHz9GzX1bxqc2scnp3kp7ygYHFvlblwucmzuuHklob9kiQxFyjiTusC0fe1Bzp1k1b_ztZ/s1600/spxew_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUKOCsBoZQ0KKmfJ4SWLs6tJHubzpCZiYCWeIeaj_xS_f7mQcPgwQl6_UvQ3PF4AxSL1yV-pAuTv-I65O-GSKIV7kSF_lMHkspdP93nO3iIuBbg4jHz9GzX1bxqc2scnp3kp7ygYHFvlblwucmzuuHklob9kiQxFyjiTusC0fe1Bzp1k1b_ztZ/s1600/spxew_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq went a step further than the S&P and Russell 2000, undercutting not just its 200-day MA, but its trading range too. The loss of the November swing low initiated a new bear market for the index. Technicals are net negative, and the index is starting to underperform against the Russell 2000. Bad times ahead for this index?</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO_Q_g3NC_yIJ_TU9dDGMdb_1zUEmFPC5Hrq72Ul-hwe4TtNSfWorqWERpc6Y5SvYO5DmVi3exPMlDVR1zJe98X13Be6EGQF7E_CyGOdd8evAS1od-FO817Yw7T4B1jA-in2r454WM93m3A6OYZiaVsL7NjEZ7AHlP66-p4RDjmRoLuGXkRMKl/s1600/nas_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO_Q_g3NC_yIJ_TU9dDGMdb_1zUEmFPC5Hrq72Ul-hwe4TtNSfWorqWERpc6Y5SvYO5DmVi3exPMlDVR1zJe98X13Be6EGQF7E_CyGOdd8evAS1od-FO817Yw7T4B1jA-in2r454WM93m3A6OYZiaVsL7NjEZ7AHlP66-p4RDjmRoLuGXkRMKl/s1600/nas_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>Not helping is the failure of the Semiconductor Index to push above its 50-day MA. Technicals are mixed, but price action is shifting bearish. If there is a loss of 7,450, then shorts can be expected to pile in and drive things towards its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB1sYnFNEAD776_qZdlgQWM9-hyJjvCIMwxonZp97tu3zQYAJhsqy057yQmQHC996q6dVud26qJfTkN0hzde6q8mXIZN7sCYBG5U29sX6QhDYVpJrGugT3V_0VsGNMtScf4JKJWh9vGLjoLeStQ_RLSJCdZWhzUWXSZmLsTmXQFr8LVYK5W-UJ/s1600/sox_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB1sYnFNEAD776_qZdlgQWM9-hyJjvCIMwxonZp97tu3zQYAJhsqy057yQmQHC996q6dVud26qJfTkN0hzde6q8mXIZN7sCYBG5U29sX6QhDYVpJrGugT3V_0VsGNMtScf4JKJWh9vGLjoLeStQ_RLSJCdZWhzUWXSZmLsTmXQFr8LVYK5W-UJ/s1600/sox_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrials has yet to undercut its November swing low, but its treading on thin ice. The 200-day MA has been lost on net bearish indicators, and Monday's spike high shows supply is not too far away. If the Dow gives up 45,500 support it will start a new bear market for the index.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFE8hiCUVEA2S32uYipNs0OKtCcoXPGkE4yFoFbU2IPvFuS8ypUDsJttzQoemPPB1EBhz45w4eMcQo8fS8yTkR1p4CRt1OuVIPP2zdLGBETJYsvYBcjAgJJiGyIeS5rtJsFoMoutN1vqA3qBh8o7HsMZeSpep8Y0FkiMXJ6QgXHwEPx0OF9UCi/s1600/indu_mar23b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFE8hiCUVEA2S32uYipNs0OKtCcoXPGkE4yFoFbU2IPvFuS8ypUDsJttzQoemPPB1EBhz45w4eMcQo8fS8yTkR1p4CRt1OuVIPP2zdLGBETJYsvYBcjAgJJiGyIeS5rtJsFoMoutN1vqA3qBh8o7HsMZeSpep8Y0FkiMXJ6QgXHwEPx0OF9UCi/s1600/indu_mar23b.png"/></a></div> <p>Despite all of this, bulls have one asset that is moving in their favor, and that's Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has successfully defended its 50-day MA and today's gain sets up for the development of a right-hand base.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIg4yNKp6f2nP0pP7csJXwzh8t8U7GXAg2Sr8G2nWzoUVldobrylawsu-hBjtMwrULHjhOv1A9ltV2Acb8H5h561wRHkE34NWrisXANejW_V9lM8qm5rw6APfesrLGrfaHDwKY_AJVaqbPrugbitgRN-SrDUvwJ9DZNecpi56eP9WJCDcWAEco/s1600/btcusd_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIg4yNKp6f2nP0pP7csJXwzh8t8U7GXAg2Sr8G2nWzoUVldobrylawsu-hBjtMwrULHjhOv1A9ltV2Acb8H5h561wRHkE34NWrisXANejW_V9lM8qm5rw6APfesrLGrfaHDwKY_AJVaqbPrugbitgRN-SrDUvwJ9DZNecpi56eP9WJCDcWAEco/s1600/btcusd_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>This week will be interesting. Trump's TACO decision is one markets are not expecting him to keep. Iran has little to lose by extending this war given neighboring countries have far more to lose (Iran having already lost so much already). The US has minimal physical vulnerability, and Israel has the means to defend itself, so there is little incentive for either of them to stop. In the middle of this, Arab nations will have decisions as to who to align with long term. If the US is unable to defend them, will they continue to host US bases? Will they move to appease Iran? What are the long term vulnerabilities to Israel from such (well funded) Arab nations experiencing the physical and economic brunt of this war? Markets are only *starting* to shape a new bear market, so the next question is whether this will be a bear market driven by a broader war in the Middle East.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-87096399791366965602026-03-18T22:35:43.646+00:002026-03-18T22:35:43.647+00:00<p>After yesterday, I was looking for big red candlesticks across indices, and today - they delivered. Those who took the opportunity to go short can place a stop at yesterday's close.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) experienced a higher volume distribution day on net bearish technicals. Today's loss finished on $245/6 support, but another day's worth of selling will open up for a test of the 200-day MA and maybe a potential follow through move down to $228.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhITPNq5s4YSwQ52aYynHQbTbwWNwtViXqRvYLzMLNeYaaiuVVJWjFAT0Cltf3kI5eZ33iNkNJ2Jycww7Fs5R5NxLDt15keHuTb2uIhO_YJyKYuxNBq1_0wUd1tZ6JOH2IeUyVAVzMX-RoDRmYGcRF17Y2J_YFe21nI6qBdm-KMHd4xeaHVO7vQ/s1600/IWM_Mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhITPNq5s4YSwQ52aYynHQbTbwWNwtViXqRvYLzMLNeYaaiuVVJWjFAT0Cltf3kI5eZ33iNkNJ2Jycww7Fs5R5NxLDt15keHuTb2uIhO_YJyKYuxNBq1_0wUd1tZ6JOH2IeUyVAVzMX-RoDRmYGcRF17Y2J_YFe21nI6qBdm-KMHd4xeaHVO7vQ/s1600/IWM_Mar18.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is back down at 7,800 and it's looking like further losses are on the cards. The 200-day MA should be an initial test, but a measured move target would open up 7,400, that is also near the November swing low. Convergences are good, unless you are a bull.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix81b9oMHNIrY0HRVvmPEJ9EkhbF7DiHEQJmvsLLBpl1ANxhaFHqVn3Q9PKkl6B-HuyYGkB2Bg8OtT8RkssiIzEQFcH4m7bDmL13otqNABGLL2IU3Qo8NX3uttbEsXRJm7YzeDyiNDjVKZdwR5KUMEubJibCCfwvvFyPK4Zcqn6eY9q9z0HCi6/s1600/spxew_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix81b9oMHNIrY0HRVvmPEJ9EkhbF7DiHEQJmvsLLBpl1ANxhaFHqVn3Q9PKkl6B-HuyYGkB2Bg8OtT8RkssiIzEQFcH4m7bDmL13otqNABGLL2IU3Qo8NX3uttbEsXRJm7YzeDyiNDjVKZdwR5KUMEubJibCCfwvvFyPK4Zcqn6eY9q9z0HCi6/s1600/spxew_mar18.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P is testing its 200-day MA on a nasty sell off. The best case scenario is a spike low, so if this sells off in morning trading but starts attracting buyers after lunch, then it may be worth a long trade - particularly if we get a spike low and a close above the 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2HtuoQsakN_0cvu1l2erNJgMGxhSqzmNX-wWVB2jwETy5HkWT9xzskQr9Z9lXTToyhzA6ClyyBHlUPrPhKw-N2A-q_kKsXl6Y1cjPZhuFbP_Kv-xpzuuSVIkK5JM5LrbIzx3c071yq5rxmZ_iUU-0zZDXOMATgrOaHtuJ_fmhZ5FNNAFk3_MX/s1600/spx_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2HtuoQsakN_0cvu1l2erNJgMGxhSqzmNX-wWVB2jwETy5HkWT9xzskQr9Z9lXTToyhzA6ClyyBHlUPrPhKw-N2A-q_kKsXl6Y1cjPZhuFbP_Kv-xpzuuSVIkK5JM5LrbIzx3c071yq5rxmZ_iUU-0zZDXOMATgrOaHtuJ_fmhZ5FNNAFk3_MX/s1600/spx_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>Same applies for the Nasdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihSCR3VNz83av3uEg19aUBTl4hpvpURTNq9BZNGVyte_ux3JsWsdnntou3hY2Ki8U8SXWSZPdRRcASZxhSK1ZHL7lktSle75x7PjQN2qfQmY0etzdcrYL-JpdaFot9tAYgas9JwTVehFbXxrAcuFaQxdQNLIxqr4K1HPCzoK6vomcrVfJ5IH4/s1600/compq_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihSCR3VNz83av3uEg19aUBTl4hpvpURTNq9BZNGVyte_ux3JsWsdnntou3hY2Ki8U8SXWSZPdRRcASZxhSK1ZHL7lktSle75x7PjQN2qfQmY0etzdcrYL-JpdaFot9tAYgas9JwTVehFbXxrAcuFaQxdQNLIxqr4K1HPCzoK6vomcrVfJ5IH4/s1600/compq_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>Although I was disappointed with Bitcoin as I really was expecting some sizable upside follow through, instead, we got a red candlestick that threatens to undercut the steady work buyers had clocked in the past couple of weeks. This may morph into a scrappy base that could last months, which at best, is a hold.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifdawh_XOAjYtXT8rhyphenhyphenuV_FhdX-6QZw73JNCs44IPx5WH4gywjSx6faOZLT_0at_1YTPmj_Yun3aVbHV5u7LQQrzrEsRxaRVHd9py9KFLz0Ydjk08WOsScMzmL8HVdFB3hjFMlMEyVuX31EATk36IrVBIwu-VP2tUKVRTkVEGyCqwyLXb5BfQR/s1600/btcusd_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifdawh_XOAjYtXT8rhyphenhyphenuV_FhdX-6QZw73JNCs44IPx5WH4gywjSx6faOZLT_0at_1YTPmj_Yun3aVbHV5u7LQQrzrEsRxaRVHd9py9KFLz0Ydjk08WOsScMzmL8HVdFB3hjFMlMEyVuX31EATk36IrVBIwu-VP2tUKVRTkVEGyCqwyLXb5BfQR/s1600/btcusd_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>The index to watch is the Dow Industrial Average. The index was the first to undercut its 200-day MA, which is warning for indices currently testing their 200-day MAs. Watch what happens tomorrow. If we are to see spike lows for indices testing 200-day MAs, then this has to make a comeback tomorrow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-M8o-N1o-ZK-U4a2k4AdXBtL-dLllUmV4hzCKTN9h3yZbqU5Mor4nenT9oXuI8niiSTpQ77hNU6DYlbFcb99qlNvrQHVscgJx9yB_a5Jih_UyKCQa0-bYYm3Nz-QTE9c2OJe-jX8_cuLO1SxxpAmbVPIvjPtB-ocBjcUAGALmT2fyLX5kBPnW/s1600/indu_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-M8o-N1o-ZK-U4a2k4AdXBtL-dLllUmV4hzCKTN9h3yZbqU5Mor4nenT9oXuI8niiSTpQ77hNU6DYlbFcb99qlNvrQHVscgJx9yB_a5Jih_UyKCQa0-bYYm3Nz-QTE9c2OJe-jX8_cuLO1SxxpAmbVPIvjPtB-ocBjcUAGALmT2fyLX5kBPnW/s1600/indu_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>If there is a shorting opportunity to look at, then it could be Semiconductors. A bearish cloud-cover candlestick at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs, with a couple of spike high doji last week (denoting supply), on weak technicals, says short...</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn8Su3GRSo0RumnPaJkYzKo1vtMtl2JKxRwzOrIB6q5BM6ipERcONGFT-0J912WNzzNc3EsPKuYw7LjTUQxAGc_FiwijkFQoiHL5Rt365CFw3lbWy8GnkAnBLQjeytRz6mQHQXOdYF65mU01_xYSOa2Q768qOjSoKYjroILu8DyLcBszQfM0aF/s1600/sox_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn8Su3GRSo0RumnPaJkYzKo1vtMtl2JKxRwzOrIB6q5BM6ipERcONGFT-0J912WNzzNc3EsPKuYw7LjTUQxAGc_FiwijkFQoiHL5Rt365CFw3lbWy8GnkAnBLQjeytRz6mQHQXOdYF65mU01_xYSOa2Q768qOjSoKYjroILu8DyLcBszQfM0aF/s1600/sox_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>With the war in Iran not looking like it will finish soon, traders are now having to position themselves for the long haul, and that appears to be from the sidelines.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72060982847742874772026-03-17T22:07:02.506+00:002026-03-17T22:07:02.507+00:00<p>Not Good. Indices remain under pressure after selling into support has only resulted in a weak bounce. It won't take much to tip the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 back into the red.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the canary in the coal mine. Today was a second narrow doji after Monday's. Volume was down, reflecting the disinterest by buyers. Technicals are net negative and last week's gap down has finally closed. Don't be surprised if we see a solid red candlestick before the week is out. Even if there is a rally, the 20-day MA will be there to add its own pressure.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Bnps8o6787nZGsgj5lko-c_V4uFScA3njjutf5z98MojGZKFX1Bdq7-tmyTkegQp5N0gqW9H9VnnQKm7FfKQWiVKOVRgATZ4GPqJqrv4Nai97tIxbNCc3GqFi8XG7xu_cnQ-FGXTpzg2qSgP_BAGtvR5YYSmBx2B6Ho3puJLEGym5vHe5CDT/s1600/iwm_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Bnps8o6787nZGsgj5lko-c_V4uFScA3njjutf5z98MojGZKFX1Bdq7-tmyTkegQp5N0gqW9H9VnnQKm7FfKQWiVKOVRgATZ4GPqJqrv4Nai97tIxbNCc3GqFi8XG7xu_cnQ-FGXTpzg2qSgP_BAGtvR5YYSmBx2B6Ho3puJLEGym5vHe5CDT/s1600/iwm_mar17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is doing a little better with the rally, but given this has come off a cleaner trend break, it may find it more of a struggle to attract buyers.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwj3lnNVeGhidYFHSlEes9G_WYF-OZaZ1hm-kTY0PAwYJbJxIeFFKu2dsyRAr9AbaKoJ6OcDRZLdvJbDBlQJhIk-9XoF5c6dmLLLFERJIkgWJeGbxkOKIZ42YqAWUec3ipTaDe6YGXajgp8zGAq968-UZcZChdVMjB2ZZ02DI7rMs46dV2-0J5/s1600/spxew_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwj3lnNVeGhidYFHSlEes9G_WYF-OZaZ1hm-kTY0PAwYJbJxIeFFKu2dsyRAr9AbaKoJ6OcDRZLdvJbDBlQJhIk-9XoF5c6dmLLLFERJIkgWJeGbxkOKIZ42YqAWUec3ipTaDe6YGXajgp8zGAq968-UZcZChdVMjB2ZZ02DI7rMs46dV2-0J5/s1600/spxew_mar17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The weighted S&P has been running along declining resistance since the middle of February and with the squeeze in play we will soon have a decision time with its 200-day MA. Technicals are net bearish, but there is another support level at 6,550.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8BVBhEQqvWSslwktZmnZtrza4P5aIj0hi9vJL0fGeiOWkLArCfk3B2M33U0Y4q6OxkQoGKwr6g1Ric7YDLX-2pVQifQnK0AFaKDEP8RElFUhdQprF8w66h73r5b3QmLiexBMspm_iJND0MO6OjpZOHmBlCzapWatlRVcnFZIveUnkBu1PaeRU/s1600/spx_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8BVBhEQqvWSslwktZmnZtrza4P5aIj0hi9vJL0fGeiOWkLArCfk3B2M33U0Y4q6OxkQoGKwr6g1Ric7YDLX-2pVQifQnK0AFaKDEP8RElFUhdQprF8w66h73r5b3QmLiexBMspm_iJND0MO6OjpZOHmBlCzapWatlRVcnFZIveUnkBu1PaeRU/s1600/spx_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is also feeling the squeeze from selling pressure. It has already tested its 200-day MA, but today's doji has failed to break declining resistance. There is a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and the MACD has flat-lined, so while bearish, there is hope - but 'hope' is never a good thing to depend on when trading. As a trade, it's an easy short, but if it can rally in the morning then an afternoon long trade might be the correct trade.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TnX0_KzhEc0El6q7C9KiBWtp7Ew2ba9ZYu9osPxu6u_hsSWN11bQJgF-XnA-q1hxOv-URCKgvm_4JZUlz3mvgdB9zFv-UFNSWTTr8JgmEyHuK5wJUnNqtzgoktysSsAdOWZ3y7fG212mbenc7cylUCKpCsLfvGGjeRGwgBkPCptG3Oj_K21b/s1600/compq_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TnX0_KzhEc0El6q7C9KiBWtp7Ew2ba9ZYu9osPxu6u_hsSWN11bQJgF-XnA-q1hxOv-URCKgvm_4JZUlz3mvgdB9zFv-UFNSWTTr8JgmEyHuK5wJUnNqtzgoktysSsAdOWZ3y7fG212mbenc7cylUCKpCsLfvGGjeRGwgBkPCptG3Oj_K21b/s1600/compq_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Interestingly, the Nasdaq Bullish Percents might be staging a double bottom, which might give bulls something to work with, but it will need more than a series of day-gains for this to gain traction.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_8XjaSoGJGa8Z1J7v30xq1RN4HKe7PfHwqgDePbI5hS5xvKxfwyMkg98he83eOqX9zBoWhy0U_KjFRVLfIne2LvAp1hLoJvzo6GPTWQw9-IIroJHCvON3vGlCYWo2dWnY6iViB16kiiYS2BB5ZHiTfvYlScnH6mXg_P02Imhs-5ApklbJK_Dz/s1600/bpcompq_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_8XjaSoGJGa8Z1J7v30xq1RN4HKe7PfHwqgDePbI5hS5xvKxfwyMkg98he83eOqX9zBoWhy0U_KjFRVLfIne2LvAp1hLoJvzo6GPTWQw9-IIroJHCvON3vGlCYWo2dWnY6iViB16kiiYS2BB5ZHiTfvYlScnH6mXg_P02Imhs-5ApklbJK_Dz/s1600/bpcompq_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has edged higher, holding the 50-day MA. The crypto is enjoying a series of low key gains that could be called 'modest' - not something you would ascribe to a cryptocurrency - but this is bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2gbwtTq3NcfPgen4GsOS-r0La2eoS6dmh0NxdD2FzTcjqujR9EGH5jGQpG7xn6gDmtdRBdT1OoP_9D3endhf6YGoZgW9Pig37fzNGctW8GXOpwdLvN0i-0pGJQVQK2jDo90lO0PaSN46fHsrjacX1j1y3C-q9sNF-YLjtwLvtyMrkapZaSOnC/s1600/btcuas_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2gbwtTq3NcfPgen4GsOS-r0La2eoS6dmh0NxdD2FzTcjqujR9EGH5jGQpG7xn6gDmtdRBdT1OoP_9D3endhf6YGoZgW9Pig37fzNGctW8GXOpwdLvN0i-0pGJQVQK2jDo90lO0PaSN46fHsrjacX1j1y3C-q9sNF-YLjtwLvtyMrkapZaSOnC/s1600/btcuas_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Staying short side (with the exception of Bitcoin) looks like the trade of choice. Those looking to time a long-term investment still need to wait for a substantial undercut of the 200-day MA, and we are long way from that. If you are on the sidelines, then that's probably the best place to be at the moment.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-7724250380191649492026-03-12T22:00:00.001+00:002026-03-12T22:00:21.675+00:00<p>The problem when you trade off what Trump says, is that you are only in for disappointment. Monday's reversal that delivered what should have been a tradeable bullish engulfing pattern has devolved into a distribution sell off across lead indices.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped down but was at least able to hold onto $245 support. Technicals are net negative, but not fully oversold, so I would be looking for another day of selling that should take it into a test of its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7TSSNucrLUryVOYwrHsA7CZzraD1W7Bb3ZuvlEuSvm7LVf6ysUFUsnkdQ88hnbi-fmOwKxqXWLqn5MT6SatFIXZ5kkqO_lifLjjnUOHMZ_bIxgSYdBZRW2s7NwADRPqy8Fa2tZAZbVdFh-nMLbYpW70NjYA5tbN2v96oMlX-ggLD6mBeYBv7N/s1600/iwm_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7TSSNucrLUryVOYwrHsA7CZzraD1W7Bb3ZuvlEuSvm7LVf6ysUFUsnkdQ88hnbi-fmOwKxqXWLqn5MT6SatFIXZ5kkqO_lifLjjnUOHMZ_bIxgSYdBZRW2s7NwADRPqy8Fa2tZAZbVdFh-nMLbYpW70NjYA5tbN2v96oMlX-ggLD6mBeYBv7N/s1600/iwm_mar12.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P broadened its losses, but it still has a few days to go before it reaches an oversold state and can start looking at a reversal. There was no confirmed distribution, but it's hard to see buyers mounting much of a defense without first testing its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg6pnsak5bn7czVikrwwzZr5HRD94nP-CJRQFQga-eAYFcB-XFwqaacnl98BPapMCUMvLewFJfnCcTmBKY62BmvNW7b2l0_PyomB5llh2QOqcsVic5pm6fc4qfDmbghrxWmzkUMr2wWc6lkMvocgefpcaRbOLubG_WCKc8zQj5_4l-6Xb7H57z/s1600/spx_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg6pnsak5bn7czVikrwwzZr5HRD94nP-CJRQFQga-eAYFcB-XFwqaacnl98BPapMCUMvLewFJfnCcTmBKY62BmvNW7b2l0_PyomB5llh2QOqcsVic5pm6fc4qfDmbghrxWmzkUMr2wWc6lkMvocgefpcaRbOLubG_WCKc8zQj5_4l-6Xb7H57z/s1600/spx_mar12.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P managed to undercut the Monday spike low, a warning sign for other indices yet to do so. It seems to be on course for a test of its 200-day MA. Technicals are net negative and stochastics just dropped into oversold territory.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeR_MoBNAc_31Jg_eFIfffJOki_ZdEhfe-j8O2-bsqP6_k_zd6W9SF9gEI1ghqId3cL3rnzeoiIL9o7FuD42Kg3jklzpnl5AKpK_bWAWPAAX45rXjsUxIfoi8917ucoD16vbCg3u3_oU3XbAuBmEPUzyNlyYjdhCFhOpwzSgUOuhVW3w_uKhhw/s1600/spxew_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeR_MoBNAc_31Jg_eFIfffJOki_ZdEhfe-j8O2-bsqP6_k_zd6W9SF9gEI1ghqId3cL3rnzeoiIL9o7FuD42Kg3jklzpnl5AKpK_bWAWPAAX45rXjsUxIfoi8917ucoD16vbCg3u3_oU3XbAuBmEPUzyNlyYjdhCFhOpwzSgUOuhVW3w_uKhhw/s1600/spxew_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq didn't experience the same degree of loss as the S&P. It also managed to successfully defend its 200-day MA. While further losses are likely, there is reason for optimism given the proximity of the 200-day MA and trading range support. Technicals are mixed, with On-Balance-Volume on a 'buy' trigger. It's an aggressive long for those willing to take a punt.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixTD70kbuaFRfgapi_uBBHJ_t5NBSL7apU7q2MxPLt2OioXaP3P3j-7rttx_aF2mJwP9xPck740hXv6WSMbWLoY7ap90bGmt0YgWhzvK7ZrNpo1X56IEffEBNqYybPDwLANtL8B2tiW2DFN8gEja-Eo5fyW4kcCe4nZLgtZBHvig8RfM6r3lCm/s1600/compq_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixTD70kbuaFRfgapi_uBBHJ_t5NBSL7apU7q2MxPLt2OioXaP3P3j-7rttx_aF2mJwP9xPck740hXv6WSMbWLoY7ap90bGmt0YgWhzvK7ZrNpo1X56IEffEBNqYybPDwLANtL8B2tiW2DFN8gEja-Eo5fyW4kcCe4nZLgtZBHvig8RfM6r3lCm/s1600/compq_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin edged higher and has almost shifted technicals into a net bullish picture. The 50-day MA is not far overhead, and while this may act as resistance it may not do so for long. This still looks to be a workable long trade if not long already.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE9-ytQ85HJr8ByA7llCI5S5Q8XQWfDWbJSckddFbsQ5rTdU89OkiduvVuYQUFNOLAkv_JyGBK7nwbHHPfK2haWBl5L41P8OHVRlhaQEZauxl5zkuO1XkrpvFYTV_GrgoPAju5QnS91GkxfpiB04sYtwDT2lbhMfWHORfDVsiqoQI66s4rv80F/s1600/btcusd_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE9-ytQ85HJr8ByA7llCI5S5Q8XQWfDWbJSckddFbsQ5rTdU89OkiduvVuYQUFNOLAkv_JyGBK7nwbHHPfK2haWBl5L41P8OHVRlhaQEZauxl5zkuO1XkrpvFYTV_GrgoPAju5QnS91GkxfpiB04sYtwDT2lbhMfWHORfDVsiqoQI66s4rv80F/s1600/btcusd_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>Another index testing lows is the Dow Industrial Average. It registered a distribution day and looks likely to test its 200-day MA tomorrow. Technicals are oversold.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1Wxm8r-eEyXxDQSh9Z6Q63QrVk2fSfMU1YuK3Nwo67wMC-aV7cbx3ypqMyZjPQmTajTEklwJ1AkqmaWwA6fr7K9FSTSyPqSjXSd4wVhjH80R3YkDQIVr2Xz2rWxc2maghsuvQjNoDE4NJaCjqkZpHblaJ-qAteF27l53WZFJ10NK5sjfRfYHn/s1600/indu_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1Wxm8r-eEyXxDQSh9Z6Q63QrVk2fSfMU1YuK3Nwo67wMC-aV7cbx3ypqMyZjPQmTajTEklwJ1AkqmaWwA6fr7K9FSTSyPqSjXSd4wVhjH80R3YkDQIVr2Xz2rWxc2maghsuvQjNoDE4NJaCjqkZpHblaJ-qAteF27l53WZFJ10NK5sjfRfYHn/s1600/indu_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>On the short side, we have the Semiconductor Index. Yesterday's small inverse doji at the 50-day MA on net bearish technicals is a reversal candlestick that has the makings of more losses to come.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIe4oEwgoB_gsF2gRk906YGXI8fCQLmzXV3hXE1ndERsaOhPFyOCn1Xk0Buo5CF_Pc2mmIV501-aDzY_OcvGQGMUzq7gtZa_eO6A0BLKapWW8p0ljrhNuvVCeviTlj7RwNQ3uEYaWMfxyGYX_RRouVTmaPG4qGB8UtezFbsdGn_Ft-Ec371JH2/s1600/sox_mar12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIe4oEwgoB_gsF2gRk906YGXI8fCQLmzXV3hXE1ndERsaOhPFyOCn1Xk0Buo5CF_Pc2mmIV501-aDzY_OcvGQGMUzq7gtZa_eO6A0BLKapWW8p0ljrhNuvVCeviTlj7RwNQ3uEYaWMfxyGYX_RRouVTmaPG4qGB8UtezFbsdGn_Ft-Ec371JH2/s1600/sox_mar12.png"/></a></div> <p>Today felt like the first day markets actually posted a sell off rather than some indecisive trading range action. Those that shorted the resistance test marked by February declining highs will be sitting pretty.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72667331143315228222026-03-10T21:24:00.001+00:002026-03-10T21:24:15.609+00:00<p>Markets are reflecting the turmoil in the Middle East by being as indecisive as the Administration in its goals for the region. Headlines talk of significant declines, but that's not what we are seeing. The Nasdaq has been particularly resilient despite the added pressure from a possible AI bubble. I have marked in declining resistance from January, that intersects with today's close, and marks a possible short trade (stop on a close above today's nasty looking spike high). There is a weak 'buy' signal, but other indicators are bearish, despire the sharp acceleration in relative performance to the Russell 2000 ($IWM).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ8kXRfVwe9mC2y6yzSxtS5Hqb1BJqVKhnLkNpT-6McbJWW2mDNda31Sr6Q6Ypm6WFlqHKUQ2es2jclQt2AwPj2XIkOfq6oIJnlj0bcymQtyp_no5JMMLYOsu-hQ8WQivMGfJPxM8XzQbLvKlMa4t9_9TXQKwnuPzh5D-4jwDVOpYVQ_glANV5/s1600/compq_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ8kXRfVwe9mC2y6yzSxtS5Hqb1BJqVKhnLkNpT-6McbJWW2mDNda31Sr6Q6Ypm6WFlqHKUQ2es2jclQt2AwPj2XIkOfq6oIJnlj0bcymQtyp_no5JMMLYOsu-hQ8WQivMGfJPxM8XzQbLvKlMa4t9_9TXQKwnuPzh5D-4jwDVOpYVQ_glANV5/s1600/compq_mar10.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>After yesterday's bullish engulfing pattern in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) we now have the hangover with the "gravestone doji", although its significance is reduced as the index is not overbought. It's a shorting opportunity, particular as the index failed to close above $255; stops on a volume move above $258.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJMkBBzNB6fsfEhSHoP3Zm_zndmJjtGm1GXktTvqf1NupZupXMx-Vblc2NiehilqBdoslvUNfHd-3oZZseek-n1xbsFgV2gil5B9aOEI0dH2HaL6P3Yxal4ETPw7BEXmL7b1zoRRQnrg3p7bDwcUdYbyiUFUG53b8cP0PXG4gq6RdE8LHikbof/s1600/iwm_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJMkBBzNB6fsfEhSHoP3Zm_zndmJjtGm1GXktTvqf1NupZupXMx-Vblc2NiehilqBdoslvUNfHd-3oZZseek-n1xbsFgV2gil5B9aOEI0dH2HaL6P3Yxal4ETPw7BEXmL7b1zoRRQnrg3p7bDwcUdYbyiUFUG53b8cP0PXG4gq6RdE8LHikbof/s1600/iwm_mar10.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P finished with an indecisive spinning top at former support, now resistance. Resistance is well defined from within the trading range and a move to push into yesterday's candlestick seems likely. A test of the 200-day MA can't be ruled out, but the larger reality is that a larger trading range will be established with new support at 6,550.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXEUJnh4nSHVp2I3CVHm7HQhPZFAZH3o2HxJ9TQDn9aS0uadVp4ZX7eKPtHOp9A5FyibyMZ_AIu8WzYeb1LDJnarwMZKcbQVT4jTD0C7F-fVRJBAuPgMtVx1nHox8BHJsUAltXpHJOYwdpHzy6Dv2QM4gsxYgUymFBCEru-l6S60aPXVfaOvuW/s1600/spx_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXEUJnh4nSHVp2I3CVHm7HQhPZFAZH3o2HxJ9TQDn9aS0uadVp4ZX7eKPtHOp9A5FyibyMZ_AIu8WzYeb1LDJnarwMZKcbQVT4jTD0C7F-fVRJBAuPgMtVx1nHox8BHJsUAltXpHJOYwdpHzy6Dv2QM4gsxYgUymFBCEru-l6S60aPXVfaOvuW/s1600/spx_mar10.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P came close to tagging 7,800 support, that itself could become next trading range support. Technicals are net negative, but not oversold, although a test of 7,800 would likely coincide with a move into an oversold state.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHdS5cgEkIJd7PSlXRn_FDxx0ZjlC6uo_9Rs0y9AOPWjgMLMxAoe0LLucgFmUSCICrbkh1sAPgfdShuMUtJpYPmTa5pYMwjWFXz8YGHwjPW_KK4hZrwv3YishRV_9j_4kgxEN-5-ujt9vvOBpJ86O6DaKgpP6s51tYaMupYztHO_wRNBudcL3/s1600/spxew_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHdS5cgEkIJd7PSlXRn_FDxx0ZjlC6uo_9Rs0y9AOPWjgMLMxAoe0LLucgFmUSCICrbkh1sAPgfdShuMUtJpYPmTa5pYMwjWFXz8YGHwjPW_KK4hZrwv3YishRV_9j_4kgxEN-5-ujt9vvOBpJ86O6DaKgpP6s51tYaMupYztHO_wRNBudcL3/s1600/spxew_mar10.png"/></a></div> <p>The long trade of choice is Bitcoin. What had looked to be a 'bull trap' is now evolving into a challenge of its 50-day MA. If it can get past this moving average it will open up for a move to the 200-day MA and/or $85K. Technicals are mixed and the MACD has done well to sustain what is a weak 'buy' signal. The cryptocurrency has halved in value since peaking last year, so odds favor upside from here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXNYGbyhNvrm0qo1zQkVVhUGDecCCvbc_kXIELfYG6hAPE_eslFJBuGzT7AjQj1coJXoYBr8IdnESJKar45OPHdskgQJjtX0ea17rzx4RZyXVJA7r4WqJAmi6zXHEBh0vBPWGReIA9HEVIWi9B3eVrWdQDIEU_1nu15TQJuCpgwcz0wL4iH6Ni/s1600/btcusd_mar10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXNYGbyhNvrm0qo1zQkVVhUGDecCCvbc_kXIELfYG6hAPE_eslFJBuGzT7AjQj1coJXoYBr8IdnESJKar45OPHdskgQJjtX0ea17rzx4RZyXVJA7r4WqJAmi6zXHEBh0vBPWGReIA9HEVIWi9B3eVrWdQDIEU_1nu15TQJuCpgwcz0wL4iH6Ni/s1600/btcusd_mar10.png"/></a></div> <p>We have potential short trades for lead indices and a long opportunity in Bitcoin. Take your pick.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-85277831496460242502026-03-08T19:43:00.002+00:002026-03-08T20:44:50.594+00:00<p>It was not a guaranteed thing, and if Monday sees gains (unlikely), then a bear trap can't be ruled out. It was not a wholesale disaster, but it will set the tone for the week.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped down but wasn't able to build on the opening loss. The end-of-day finish as a doji leaves it in a bit of a no-mans land, but if there is a gap higher and a closing white candlestick tomorrow, then we have a bullish morning star reversal pattern. Stochastics (momentum) is not entirely oversold, which you would like to see for a reversal pattern. Technicals are now net negative, so it does point towards further losses, but do watch for an opening gap higher that could offer a long trade.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0YCGTDZEUpVPoIXnstps2EqxC5NHgChfyDUJ4D63imZveHPzor6YDqvPAwxB9OMumu2N9-zSv9f2PXDWoDz-dGT_raLMq9Nc4JxeR1ZBa86nV0wYIKu0mynugcoRldcvDrBDTXFwU-f0R828RjliJjXoJDg1L-nNOafLJ2aFLskXtv2hDyPIN/s1600/iwm_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0YCGTDZEUpVPoIXnstps2EqxC5NHgChfyDUJ4D63imZveHPzor6YDqvPAwxB9OMumu2N9-zSv9f2PXDWoDz-dGT_raLMq9Nc4JxeR1ZBa86nV0wYIKu0mynugcoRldcvDrBDTXFwU-f0R828RjliJjXoJDg1L-nNOafLJ2aFLskXtv2hDyPIN/s1600/iwm_mar5.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P gapped and close inside the previous spike low. This might be the most short friendly index as this level of weakness can quickly runaway once the spike low is breached (a loss of 6,700). Technicals are net negative but still a few days away from becoming oversold. I'm still liking a move to test the 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSzXHmNb1Z8dUWk2f8D9LvXAbmmVLXAoEUUNWZfn52a9keGrpki4WIFopsepKl2zQaazpAcFAoywhlXHbg9l5RSApp7njYXwy6kO-SIVmkZkLT4cFeoiCZxm9UogcC6j8Al0hs9IAJxAXHxXbbYvhukpbR_quziV6PDqvIbnrmpPPb7ME1NTG8/s1600/spx_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSzXHmNb1Z8dUWk2f8D9LvXAbmmVLXAoEUUNWZfn52a9keGrpki4WIFopsepKl2zQaazpAcFAoywhlXHbg9l5RSApp7njYXwy6kO-SIVmkZkLT4cFeoiCZxm9UogcC6j8Al0hs9IAJxAXHxXbbYvhukpbR_quziV6PDqvIbnrmpPPb7ME1NTG8/s1600/spx_mar6.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P undercut its 50-day MA easy enough, but looks to have found its trading range support at 7,950. Lose this level and 7,800 becomes the next target. A narrow range day above 7,950 would give swing traders a nice setup for Tuesday.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpbBKr4a6MvRBhuYHIBUsKsbonUoFiAg9CCkx3-7APMDlLzwbNGjF7wziyU8zX5DWQwDDpAdshx84VLAvYresRE6KUUytbfVESUm0QtbqByAe9TE6wW3ccw6suDJnXeyoDRU3hPcrFcpjzS2-B1EHrKrvEr6f22BmpOf1aU2YEkGsxMv20aoz4/s1600/spxew_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpbBKr4a6MvRBhuYHIBUsKsbonUoFiAg9CCkx3-7APMDlLzwbNGjF7wziyU8zX5DWQwDDpAdshx84VLAvYresRE6KUUytbfVESUm0QtbqByAe9TE6wW3ccw6suDJnXeyoDRU3hPcrFcpjzS2-B1EHrKrvEr6f22BmpOf1aU2YEkGsxMv20aoz4/s1600/spxew_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>When we look at the weekly picture we may still be on course for a slow rollover. Note how momentum is still overbought, which is still bullish despite the action we have seen on a daily timeframe. Weekly volume was down a little on last week's confirmed distribution.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAvISCuMsBWUYyUtbKozua432tD4VuRDlfujucYDL9Zo_PkVmH1E5IqXZWmjTtO5KtIHFaomJiaK4QVzGn5j2pf0nZyeG6cIeFEz3DcVDE44eArU-G8cZ4PDNUiFiAXgasP0VcLACIMNQ1cMEcm8rGxKpa0YJrMD3ni37DXGa68djY9rhehz60/s1600/spx_w_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAvISCuMsBWUYyUtbKozua432tD4VuRDlfujucYDL9Zo_PkVmH1E5IqXZWmjTtO5KtIHFaomJiaK4QVzGn5j2pf0nZyeG6cIeFEz3DcVDE44eArU-G8cZ4PDNUiFiAXgasP0VcLACIMNQ1cMEcm8rGxKpa0YJrMD3ni37DXGa68djY9rhehz60/s1600/spx_w_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq has been the fly in the ointment. The index most people thought would suffer on an AI-centric crash has held up relatively well. The trading range is still intact, but technicals are net negative. So, I would be looking for a loss of 22.1K, but with the 200-day MA fast approaching from below don't be surprised if we only see a spike low test of the latter moving average before buyers take this back above 22.1K for an end-of-day close.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhuM8jTGE4_XyQAp4BvFpb6nqtmSsvImGa8LjkY-ogeu8-UU5bbR0moL9Ueoc7qLW2BU7Ot6oIuoyDv0UNKttogEztT2AV88FzNHuxlKP8_-rl5MAaRdD0tLLrzOAuNn8M1SbZY6pgG4dvdzspVNzeAVDr-BKbm16Xh3W6bM3X4eOSl0FE5hbY/s1600/compq_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhuM8jTGE4_XyQAp4BvFpb6nqtmSsvImGa8LjkY-ogeu8-UU5bbR0moL9Ueoc7qLW2BU7Ot6oIuoyDv0UNKttogEztT2AV88FzNHuxlKP8_-rl5MAaRdD0tLLrzOAuNn8M1SbZY6pgG4dvdzspVNzeAVDr-BKbm16Xh3W6bM3X4eOSl0FE5hbY/s1600/compq_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin gave up most of the early week gains, finishing the week with an inverse spike that marked a high degree of overhead supply, but if traders are able to finish the coming week with a close inside this spike, then I would be optimistic for future gains.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHHjQ9hFauRQq7dMXboGQYaRh9fIau2J4wdcHcT-dMYy-LMp7UxVIKYOVx2AikCY00S0VpT0EvbC9A0wzgTnRNrdKDhv9sDQ7MevLMQXzTn0ZAka5277A72nXrlPSXnR8M0lwf6-PeXAbcdmMKjJmyNZWV4gRmvsXCnV_qNkRMQ4xbmRjg5f6r/s1600/btcusd_mar8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHHjQ9hFauRQq7dMXboGQYaRh9fIau2J4wdcHcT-dMYy-LMp7UxVIKYOVx2AikCY00S0VpT0EvbC9A0wzgTnRNrdKDhv9sDQ7MevLMQXzTn0ZAka5277A72nXrlPSXnR8M0lwf6-PeXAbcdmMKjJmyNZWV4gRmvsXCnV_qNkRMQ4xbmRjg5f6r/s1600/btcusd_mar8.png"/></a></div> <p>An aggressive long might be found in the Dow Industrial Average. Friday finished with a nice hammer (note how Thursday's close was inside the prior spike - hence the gap down on Friday), although technicals are not fully oversold. If Monday see's another push into the spike low, but sees a strong end-of-day finish, then it will be a long trade with risk:reward measured from Friday's low to 48K upside target.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-b6nHOo8leSsMcXeD8kG9C6DMNEm1wQsPglQaCR_ys18bxZxzJ1Ebvaa5YVAVqqdUwd5RlhRIL5UFoXIBtGlD-qplhn9q5LQsyw3pBiRzCkxEVku_RRU0lglDmng0HtZOVJPum8GuaVMQnV2KV0ChTJfjT2H6KFKl0ClmUBVbKMGzTo1_q5kL/s1600/indu_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-b6nHOo8leSsMcXeD8kG9C6DMNEm1wQsPglQaCR_ys18bxZxzJ1Ebvaa5YVAVqqdUwd5RlhRIL5UFoXIBtGlD-qplhn9q5LQsyw3pBiRzCkxEVku_RRU0lglDmng0HtZOVJPum8GuaVMQnV2KV0ChTJfjT2H6KFKl0ClmUBVbKMGzTo1_q5kL/s1600/indu_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>Another decision point has opened for the Semiconductor Index. It staged a picture-perfect reversal off the January upside target, and now finds itself back at support from that early year breakout. While Friday's candlestick is not bullish, with the finish at support it might be worth a punt for longs. The net bearish technical picture suggests any bounce might not last long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFIEW5vsZR8k3h0L7KF2wOsVYhgRYEsrtjwhyphenhyphenu2HRlNfK11OMbvCDvhV1VmhDVxtx6T3G7zh5WFoedmOJMkyELTapJmfXUApNci4B_mcArB5fsqR1AacWF8DAlcwS8m6Mj02jmwcgNpO3A4hjUTqtUpC7faI2HSpFDDDefP_3Ww_VoQz-OJiRI/s1600/sox_mar6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFIEW5vsZR8k3h0L7KF2wOsVYhgRYEsrtjwhyphenhyphenu2HRlNfK11OMbvCDvhV1VmhDVxtx6T3G7zh5WFoedmOJMkyELTapJmfXUApNci4B_mcArB5fsqR1AacWF8DAlcwS8m6Mj02jmwcgNpO3A4hjUTqtUpC7faI2HSpFDDDefP_3Ww_VoQz-OJiRI/s1600/sox_mar6.png"/></a></div> <p>So, despite the loss of trading ranges in lead indices we are not out of long opportunities. Monday's open and the first 30-minutes of trading could dictate which way to trade; a gap down and a rally *after* the first 30 minutes would make longs favored.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} <p>gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-69741087861933289672026-03-05T21:54:00.001+00:002026-03-05T22:03:25.846+00:00<p>We are seeing a pick up in trading volume with selling dominating, but we are not seeing a new downward trend, at least, not yet. News headlines paint a harsher picture of market action, but it hasn't borne out yet. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has drfited towards range support on a sequence of lower highs (but not yet lower lows). I expect this squeeze to play out with a solid red candlestick breakdown (and a good short trade) with a target of the 200-day MA. This should turn technicals net negative, and then, we can start to see if a new bear trend forms.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigD753vs11zG0MBBofsA6PbQRbRbZ5o1e-g9NAdLmeL8pLhyh3j8oWnU6lL7_CLnZ2pRyiA9A-2XkTaVNuXSzyFxuQwF38tgqj8UwXL7SvRpycfADh_hBF57G4m9x35IVn6xdVMdH_CXRyL5u4aKmzvoMOvSHZUhlPoSPzr45CzINoMmgQRWC-/s1600/iwm_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigD753vs11zG0MBBofsA6PbQRbRbZ5o1e-g9NAdLmeL8pLhyh3j8oWnU6lL7_CLnZ2pRyiA9A-2XkTaVNuXSzyFxuQwF38tgqj8UwXL7SvRpycfADh_hBF57G4m9x35IVn6xdVMdH_CXRyL5u4aKmzvoMOvSHZUhlPoSPzr45CzINoMmgQRWC-/s1600/iwm_mar5.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P is also testing range support, but does have the early week spike low to work with. Recent volume has been modest, although technicals are net negative - including a new downtrend in On-Balance-Volume. Moves into spike lows typically result in a loss of the spike low if the day closes inside this spike. A loss of 6,800 opens up a short opportunity with a stop on an end-of-day close above 6,800.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_btmhwAiFojnoo2NOddCwCPsEETulSlSzSDRfU7Zd5eevYt5pOyVGAa8uP3fah-j5WhP7CFBqCnEsjQ94wE5NpLqj9TlJMTCEOoyGoN-wiwNA2cMtDkZ5IbwLvwHq9VkAlHBarD2tcn7Df5wEgAAP_ND3l_-jW8tSQVKUB_9vjIpAGsBoh9bk/s1600/spx_iwm5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_btmhwAiFojnoo2NOddCwCPsEETulSlSzSDRfU7Zd5eevYt5pOyVGAa8uP3fah-j5WhP7CFBqCnEsjQ94wE5NpLqj9TlJMTCEOoyGoN-wiwNA2cMtDkZ5IbwLvwHq9VkAlHBarD2tcn7Df5wEgAAP_ND3l_-jW8tSQVKUB_9vjIpAGsBoh9bk/s1600/spx_iwm5.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>What might offer more guidance is the equal-weighted S&P. It established a clear trend break, followed by two successful tests of the 50-day MA. Given the frequency of the two 50-day MA tests I would not be surprised if there is a third, and on that test, the 50-day MA breaks. Technicals are mixed, but for now, one would be arguing for a trading range, similiar to the one for the weighted S&P.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTlMkvdorT4GxKX2_0r7kYgzA59VtyaB8VnS17cPk8mdgRfXsZhP2HyOOxmSAdguTzSHLrgHHznLNNcNUpZMeftvM_eb6QFPMc7KhIxX1T_uGqg7VX8eOo2mRt4ec2UrczXUjdxAbYWck7QGgVhOPmmBIquvHEx0Y6zYSfijaLm7NDx9vQ-Ie9/s1600/spxew_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTlMkvdorT4GxKX2_0r7kYgzA59VtyaB8VnS17cPk8mdgRfXsZhP2HyOOxmSAdguTzSHLrgHHznLNNcNUpZMeftvM_eb6QFPMc7KhIxX1T_uGqg7VX8eOo2mRt4ec2UrczXUjdxAbYWck7QGgVhOPmmBIquvHEx0Y6zYSfijaLm7NDx9vQ-Ie9/s1600/spxew_mar5.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is holding up a little better than peer indices. Yesterday's buying volume ranked as accumulation, although the 20-day MA is playing as resistance and this moving average is fast approaching range support and the 200-day MA. This squeeze will result in a sharp break, and when it does, one can trade in the direction of the break.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjLD7acyZG_eh4eH_wEwRUvkfl4GCuYwHljgOAXwoQ0CRRYx4m9AQq8Kui7VFpck26K1Xtq0X3_ROBqkH_EOhjF8uL219d_5UksuZjF5EqmR-J7vjBp1BJKe5eq6A_i4ik5c24D9o9mwq2HHPL4rypvYGaWUprVlrBN6UIKtdKFyZyMhz6vOyD/s1600/compq_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjLD7acyZG_eh4eH_wEwRUvkfl4GCuYwHljgOAXwoQ0CRRYx4m9AQq8Kui7VFpck26K1Xtq0X3_ROBqkH_EOhjF8uL219d_5UksuZjF5EqmR-J7vjBp1BJKe5eq6A_i4ik5c24D9o9mwq2HHPL4rypvYGaWUprVlrBN6UIKtdKFyZyMhz6vOyD/s1600/compq_mar5.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin made the initial break higher, clearing its 20-day MA in the process. It has since eased back a little but hasn't risked losing the break higher. The initial target remains the 50-day MA and then $85K, which will likely coincide with a test of its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYA8iOuSPhhlPot4qM9Z6Ys73D0Jw-hQPsOnosjFXZ-vai41zcmEtoVHwlF9XWAbCpedeQObc2cibLSz4LVVlTnAI0_udGtbgcdJugJR80EX3NTkEl8_iPN3VjJ4tNaUQeflsnJKWxfoPPgfuUcdQTzqMUHg_F3g6v7oPZVp12cIYb0Lj_Lbb/s1600/btcusd_mar5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYA8iOuSPhhlPot4qM9Z6Ys73D0Jw-hQPsOnosjFXZ-vai41zcmEtoVHwlF9XWAbCpedeQObc2cibLSz4LVVlTnAI0_udGtbgcdJugJR80EX3NTkEl8_iPN3VjJ4tNaUQeflsnJKWxfoPPgfuUcdQTzqMUHg_F3g6v7oPZVp12cIYb0Lj_Lbb/s1600/btcusd_mar5.png"/></a></div> <p>There are short trades in the making, but with markets caught in trading ranges any pre-emptive trade runs the risk of whipsaw. Longs have Bitcoin to work with, which we may be the more stable long trade.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-35765218247298863782026-03-04T00:26:00.002+00:002026-03-04T00:26:46.724+00:00<p>The Iranian war has flagged extreme headlines, but markets haven't broken from their trading ranges bar a few exceptions.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the most bullish of the indices. The index successfully defended $255 support but did finish the day below 50-day MA support. Technicals are still mixed, with momentum (Stochastics) likely the next indicator to switch bearish, which would make bears favorite overall.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2W5IWdEZpBXAH8YvE2Uq8YGem60gh0_359NMDUpyC1b11i58DdqP9Z0ygCw-B0ezIxAcnIQvq8uj7-E_JE9J7Ka3AKiA3-SoMG5sQ5kkQ48FfsLPv5XxZ61t4uuTvvsWi4C3nxes9C4Woif8C5dt8EahahQT7u3OORArNBvQYaSIgd7EG90G0/s1600/iwm_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2W5IWdEZpBXAH8YvE2Uq8YGem60gh0_359NMDUpyC1b11i58DdqP9Z0ygCw-B0ezIxAcnIQvq8uj7-E_JE9J7Ka3AKiA3-SoMG5sQ5kkQ48FfsLPv5XxZ61t4uuTvvsWi4C3nxes9C4Woif8C5dt8EahahQT7u3OORArNBvQYaSIgd7EG90G0/s1600/iwm_mar3.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P spiked below 6,790 support before staging a recovery to close above this (real-body) support line. Technicals are net bearish, but the spike low should mark a point of demand. However, if tomorrow, the index closes within the range of the spike low, then all bets are off. Aggressive traders could look to play a long trade off the open, but if gains fail to build earlier then I wouldn't stick around.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyBgitAjLER7wmpCyfjRIygltJq2X-0uI1pR8MjgbTqzaLgGgHEfuFesZ6EqkH6SFc9IH4gNrHMMZGVXhB0kb1Z4jc2oP46n33NE1FroTnzVY7gkzddhQi10WSO_n-vJxiMk58vr6kG4r3pIkw5aQuz3CW-ext9stHiEitlVueZtCTpRLeiMO4/s1600/spx_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyBgitAjLER7wmpCyfjRIygltJq2X-0uI1pR8MjgbTqzaLgGgHEfuFesZ6EqkH6SFc9IH4gNrHMMZGVXhB0kb1Z4jc2oP46n33NE1FroTnzVY7gkzddhQi10WSO_n-vJxiMk58vr6kG4r3pIkw5aQuz3CW-ext9stHiEitlVueZtCTpRLeiMO4/s1600/spx_mar3.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>It was a different story for the equal-weighted S&P. This posted a clear breakdown from the rising trend, but did manage to successfully defend its 50-day MA off a spike low. As with the regular S&P, if the index trades inside the spike range tomorrow, then there is a good chance for a loss of the 50-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_THKgPnlIFyZfFzBQhiHP5AgDDEjRh_vxPRjs-MEVArUv0Tbu7_Napbow2YctS_jtfcW-qawhswtKDpc-CmXvgNNaufQ8JP5a59F7CDmzOwqekhulRO7uLlNrVigBORNtp_E6WPn-neMF0hpC_aeq7EdsE1cFQPmkn2CgMRqnlazyYeIfUfc3/s1600/SPXEW_Mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_THKgPnlIFyZfFzBQhiHP5AgDDEjRh_vxPRjs-MEVArUv0Tbu7_Napbow2YctS_jtfcW-qawhswtKDpc-CmXvgNNaufQ8JP5a59F7CDmzOwqekhulRO7uLlNrVigBORNtp_E6WPn-neMF0hpC_aeq7EdsE1cFQPmkn2CgMRqnlazyYeIfUfc3/s1600/SPXEW_Mar3.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is alsow holding range support and has its 200-day MA not far away. Technicals are net bearish. There isn't a whole lot of support to work with below its 200-day MA, but there should be good support here. This looks like a long trade, but don't hold on a loss of $22K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIlJWm6CazK0Z7YnRHVuf1TiWZ8EJYbeLaNz6J6tQxWkm3drP0zVXEbgHhKn5U4DrZbuGy0zsKmIMGhifzhuba-OiTk5vwAKyuyvNYZcQvRBTKpuAxaJmPG5LD-IW5FHol4lgNbB9H4IypOHhnxSjEyqFSQyrzedxQX9RaLEn0pst60SapuKof/s1600/compq_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIlJWm6CazK0Z7YnRHVuf1TiWZ8EJYbeLaNz6J6tQxWkm3drP0zVXEbgHhKn5U4DrZbuGy0zsKmIMGhifzhuba-OiTk5vwAKyuyvNYZcQvRBTKpuAxaJmPG5LD-IW5FHol4lgNbB9H4IypOHhnxSjEyqFSQyrzedxQX9RaLEn0pst60SapuKof/s1600/compq_mar3.png"/></a></div> <p>I haven't posted a weekly chart in a while, but it might be worth paying attention too now that war is in the air. The S&P has the potential for a rounding top, but it will take a few weeks for this to play out - enough.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Vz670PnosOnJ1EJDa-Rm7wiOTbXVhKT9IXeUNeUdNLWng5X05ZpBePUjRGtOzaPjQ0U-owhtSOIBeHEZ7xOZFrhp3XwSxP-MaOXccFKxzNW3836H2wzLm_fpAG0c4brJSz_y-UFAhHdmObUcoLI_Krh04I-coHOBK2bsdHV3E6598R8SrmUv/s1600/spx_mar3w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Vz670PnosOnJ1EJDa-Rm7wiOTbXVhKT9IXeUNeUdNLWng5X05ZpBePUjRGtOzaPjQ0U-owhtSOIBeHEZ7xOZFrhp3XwSxP-MaOXccFKxzNW3836H2wzLm_fpAG0c4brJSz_y-UFAhHdmObUcoLI_Krh04I-coHOBK2bsdHV3E6598R8SrmUv/s1600/spx_mar3w.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin hasn't broken support and has so far managed to stay above its 20-day MA. I think there is a decent long trade here too, despite the generally bearish technical picture.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMeuOoGAIJHkAv70gk0mB42AG0w9LigMMs5sa1sL7QkruBIdoBtVhhS__f2omNO6JDAMaZASryNkVrWeTXvrFLunIv7EAPM6hOS3_EC_pmWA9LWUsE6iepB5P-RGDPhz0je_lpVLCYMO3KXLnwqcfGeMIJOQHDvqx9dQGWXM-14tb_d-SHF1Ds/s1600/btcusd_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMeuOoGAIJHkAv70gk0mB42AG0w9LigMMs5sa1sL7QkruBIdoBtVhhS__f2omNO6JDAMaZASryNkVrWeTXvrFLunIv7EAPM6hOS3_EC_pmWA9LWUsE6iepB5P-RGDPhz0je_lpVLCYMO3KXLnwqcfGeMIJOQHDvqx9dQGWXM-14tb_d-SHF1Ds/s1600/btcusd_mar3.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors could have the most to say as their recent exposure has broght them into the limelight. The measured move target was deftly reached and the index now sits on its 50-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ4HTyeGyBzmDdBtUdl9ZmH2RMYvyCYQetJDX2wMONGDn199GwOT0ajWkDpVNwNUtFDZ6nK8PfjTZ-9GQWXpTSf1fd_XXJ7NT4DuvzCF2PcCYxwEf_jJfzsXqgi_qUOCEWkkMi4QaQDDzgxr79wwdOaDdiZsfdjSXRJNkf-yZ_vlap0ETgimpw/s1600/sox_mar3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ4HTyeGyBzmDdBtUdl9ZmH2RMYvyCYQetJDX2wMONGDn199GwOT0ajWkDpVNwNUtFDZ6nK8PfjTZ-9GQWXpTSf1fd_XXJ7NT4DuvzCF2PcCYxwEf_jJfzsXqgi_qUOCEWkkMi4QaQDDzgxr79wwdOaDdiZsfdjSXRJNkf-yZ_vlap0ETgimpw/s1600/sox_mar3.png"/></a></div> <p>Given global events it has been surprising how resilient markets have proven to be. Aggresive traders can use support tests to play for a move to test channel resistance, or even wait for a breakout. However, as this war is likely to last a while, I would look for bears to take control of the markets over the coming weeks and months. But as long as markets remain within current trading ranges, all the headlines you read of collapse is just noise.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-9021703544260946442026-03-01T21:50:00.000+00:002026-03-01T21:50:00.515+00:00<p>Aside from a rise in oil prices, which were already trending higher prior to Israel's, and "tag-along" U.S., strike on Iran it remains to be seen what long term impact this will have on markets. I'm always looking at how indices relate relative to their 200-day MAs, and since the latter part of 2025 to now, this relationship is no longer overbought and not the risk I thought coming into 2026. However, we do have well-defined support levels to work with and these should be tested early next week. Again, a loss here wouldn't be hugely damaging as we have 200-day MAs below to offer support. What will be damaging is, as probably expected, the Iran conflict extends into a series of terrorist attacks on U.S. interests to goad the U.S. (and Israel?) into putting boots-on-the-ground in Iran. The Middle East is never a clear in-and-out, and there is no record of success for the U.S. to lean on here. In such a scenario, we have the makings of drip-drip losses in the market to turn the broader trend bearish. If such losses undercut 200-day MAs, then we would be heading into good buying territory for long-term investors, although news headlines will be negative.</p> <p>The S&P finished Friday with a 'sell' trigger on higher volume distribution. There has been quite a few distribution days in February, and given the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/prediction-market-bets-us-iran-airstrikes-b2929588.html">dubious gains</a> from prediction markets in advance of the strikes on Iran, there is reason to wonder how much of February's selling was governed by insider information on 'possible' conflict; Friday's distribution before Saturday's airstrikes in a range-bound market - where historic volume action is typically light across market trading ranges - is certainly "odd". Either way, we will never know, and we can only work with the information presented to us, and as it stands, the S&P is a "hold".</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlh8JuvY4p9Myz3pqrLDXab8NzCk91RTufAhxM8Z-9ummS6XCIHiX-_hSN_dTOL25_cjGEFt__21L5XYSxK6bvOxCEBPi7LXFjXGsksTqHOJ-oNUhkdGPRKAfEtnlM6-0OZrlbu_9-YO8L2H2sfkY8Tz5IXEPEeD4MtUIlGDjf5gY-ob6l9jb7/s1600/SPX_Feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlh8JuvY4p9Myz3pqrLDXab8NzCk91RTufAhxM8Z-9ummS6XCIHiX-_hSN_dTOL25_cjGEFt__21L5XYSxK6bvOxCEBPi7LXFjXGsksTqHOJ-oNUhkdGPRKAfEtnlM6-0OZrlbu_9-YO8L2H2sfkY8Tz5IXEPEeD4MtUIlGDjf5gY-ob6l9jb7/s1600/SPX_Feb26.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq also flagged a distribution day, but not to the same degree as the S&P. The 200-day MA might get to range support at the same time the index falls to test this same support. Technicals are mixed, with only the MACD on a weak 'buy' trigger with an extended period of relative underperformance to the Russell 2000 ($IWM). In such a scenario I would look for a break of support, but let's see what happens.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1zhDj4v8gXbAE6Jv512aZzpnOl1fXg7bRV8S2uijs3hf_R9Hcrv3zoGdlYDEe_ggVGHXSGoWE7t19n5_ZC4qfIN6xdzKGvFpj_YJf6gX9vrSWqzvlAn0-bWEJQPRIGZd6SxQS0nVufWG-z6_jfNgn8YEdKOFi656SEIjKV3i8NKIMSIqAxPPE/s1600/nas_feb26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1zhDj4v8gXbAE6Jv512aZzpnOl1fXg7bRV8S2uijs3hf_R9Hcrv3zoGdlYDEe_ggVGHXSGoWE7t19n5_ZC4qfIN6xdzKGvFpj_YJf6gX9vrSWqzvlAn0-bWEJQPRIGZd6SxQS0nVufWG-z6_jfNgn8YEdKOFi656SEIjKV3i8NKIMSIqAxPPE/s1600/nas_feb26.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) may be the most immune to negative headlines(???). There was no distribution and it's holding 50-day MA support. On-balance-volume and stochastics are positive, a neutral ADX, and a MACD while trending down, but still above the bullish zero line. Again, let's see how the index reacts to the weekend news.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfToItvijBNBa-Nt2_5gBef-rOv3UpZ11nwXyYf0bjKO5-PgPj2Ok7G_yjnJ1O3nuGPVOfZG3E6V80QsNK9JTs1iDO6ipZOibg2vpeNyD_G6xl9XXNMkngZ2w56tGlMKLWW6qwWHHwoT8gUVyBS1cgslHhyRAt25lnkk6OGFQpRG1rRPeBp-_9/s1600/iwm_feb26b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfToItvijBNBa-Nt2_5gBef-rOv3UpZ11nwXyYf0bjKO5-PgPj2Ok7G_yjnJ1O3nuGPVOfZG3E6V80QsNK9JTs1iDO6ipZOibg2vpeNyD_G6xl9XXNMkngZ2w56tGlMKLWW6qwWHHwoT8gUVyBS1cgslHhyRAt25lnkk6OGFQpRG1rRPeBp-_9/s1600/iwm_feb26b.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has acted relatively quietly to the Iranian news. There is a swing trade here based on the break of $65K or $70K. It's an oversold market, so if there is a downward break I wouldn't expect it to stay weak for long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc4pP2Oh_hUKsHBQM4U1DUUhvr_GYTR38mEn-pnygm1SW-o2o-Bpk3Jx9iA1qCBXu83zcYhmTSJjOEpR0JUPLds6fdQGnUFmDfDNMsSdGw_QaWX1q5jAEu2d7OwRH463XuPgLrDeM8NocmO6TagNHWHtK1lkbshi8UANSSjB5TrcrQWUWhPgqm/s1600/btcusd_mar1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc4pP2Oh_hUKsHBQM4U1DUUhvr_GYTR38mEn-pnygm1SW-o2o-Bpk3Jx9iA1qCBXu83zcYhmTSJjOEpR0JUPLds6fdQGnUFmDfDNMsSdGw_QaWX1q5jAEu2d7OwRH463XuPgLrDeM8NocmO6TagNHWHtK1lkbshi8UANSSjB5TrcrQWUWhPgqm/s1600/btcusd_mar1.png"/></a></div> <p>An interesting week lies ahead, but this is likely just the start of something, not the end.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.com