tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100197042026-09-02T23:08:56.710+01:00@FallondpicksStock Market Commentary by Dr. Declan Fallon; est. Jan 8th 2005Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comBlogger4639125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-736555734371414342026-09-02T23:08:56.709+01:002026-09-02T23:08:56.710+01:00Indices Seeking Support With Trading Ranges In Play<p>The equal-weighted S&P found buyers close to its 50-day MA, creating a higher high as momentum moves towards midline support of a bull cycle. Watch for a move down to test 8,725 - if this was to come on bullish spike (hammer or doji) it could be considered a good buying opportunity.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is attempting a double bottom sub-$290. I would like to see Stochastics [39,1] below 20 to confirm. However, the 'bull trap' from August is the dominant influence, and such patterns typically result in a minimum test of prior support ($287), and often, something worse. As with the equal-weighted S&P, I would like to see a spike low to $285.</p>
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<p>The S&P is bouncing around just above breakout support of 7,600. This might be the best 'buy-now' play with the 50-day MA just below to lend additional support. Technicals are mixed, edging bearish, with momentum only drifting out of an overbought state. As trend trader you want to see this overbought, so it's going to take a few days of buying to get this back there.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq has been quietly doing its own thing, holding support at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs while trading in the middle of a 25-27K range. As with the S&P it has only recently dropped out of an overbought state (somewhat unusual for a trading range), but still sides with bulls for those looking for buying opportunities.</p>
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<p>I'm liking action in Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). The consolidation is trading in the upper part of the third of the three large white candles. The spike lows denote demand on drops below 77.5K, but I think a fake out move to the 20-day MA to shake weak hands would be preferable (although of course, may not happen). Of available trades, this is the most bullish, it's just hard to measure the risk:reward.</p>
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<p>Sellers may be gathering the headlines, but markets remain in relatively good shape. I like the alignment reset of indices relative to their 200-day MAs, although there is still plenty of room to go before tests of these moving averages can be considered. The S&P has the lowest risk for longs, Bitcoin has the best upside potential.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-57765008230715949952026-08-31T22:53:48.830+01:002026-08-31T22:53:48.831+01:00Selling Pressure Continues - Russell 2000 ($IWM) Net Bearish<p>Indices continued to drift with the Russell 2000 ($IWM) experiencing the largest loss. Technicals for the Russell 2000 are net bearish with the index on course to test $287. Both 20-day and 50-day MAs are now cleanly undercut. Trading volume increased to register a second day of distribution in a row. Momentum has been in a bull cycle since April. It waivered in July before it recovered, but it's already in the same position now as it was then, with no price support nearby; further losses are likely.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P also took a decent hit, but unlike the Russell 2000 it's still in a bull trend with strong bullish momentum. I would like to see a test of the 50-day MA, which would maintain the larger bullish trend.</p>
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<p>The S&P only posted a small loss that didn't violate breakout support. Technicals are mixed with only 'weak' sell signals running against stronger bullish momentum.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq has been range bound since May and Friday's action did little to change that.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin closed higher as it shapes a nice consolidation after the surge past $75K. Watch for a measured move higher with a projected target of $92K.</p>
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<p>A watch-and-wait for indices as sellers push looking for support. Bitcoin remains best placed to post further gains and offers a buying opportunity.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-45136868920821106282026-08-29T23:53:02.383+01:002026-08-29T23:53:02.383+01:00Small Caps Blink As Sellers Cash-In Their Chips<p>Friday's selling looked worse than it did given the sequence of narrow trade days, but it did rank as selling, and in the case of the Russell 2000 (IWM), registered as distribution.</p>
<p>Technicals for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) included a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and an acceleration in bearish ADX (+DI/-DI) metrics. Because of the earlier 'bear trap' it's now considered range bound, and now on course for a test of $287.</p>
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<p>The equal-weighted S&P eased back to its 20-day MA while remaining in a bullish trend. It will probably morph into a trading range, but it will take a high degree of selling to get there. Technicals are mostly bullish with only a 'weak' MACD sell to navigate.</p>
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<p>The weighted S&P maintained its breakout on a weak candlestick. It could tolerate a few more days of selling, but dropping below 7,600 would leave it open to a larger retracement back to 7,235. There is a weak MACD trigger 'sell' to navigate, but there are support levels to work with.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq has been range bound for a while, and Friday's action didn't change that. Friday's volume ranked as distribution, but that's just noise in the context of the range.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin didn't move sharply lower. I expect it will come, but is likely to be a fake out to shake out weak-hand bulls. Certainly there has been a sharp move in favor of bulls and May highs are playing as resistance.</p>
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<p>Semiconductors had rebounded to its 50-day MA, before reversing back towards its 200-day MA. The 61.8% retracement is near 10K and the fast approaching 200-day MA - making it a likely test.</p>
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<p>For next week, watch for a sharp intraday reversal, likely after an early morning sell off. Markets are set up for a larger bullish move higher, but a good shakeout would be a large help.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-91659299840405757322026-08-26T22:42:10.462+01:002026-08-26T22:42:10.462+01:00Last Chance To Grab a Bargain?<p>What carried for the end of the last week still has relevance today. If you haven't been a buyer, you still have a chance now. There are a number of support opportunities across indices.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is holding support of its converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. The 'bull trap' is still the dominant (bearish) play, so if there is an undercut of these moving averages, and by that, I mean an end-of-day close below these averages, then a move back to $287 is favored.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The S&P has traded within a very narrow range centered around 7,675. There is support at the 20-day MA, 7,650 and then the 50-day MA. It too has it's own 'bull trap', but given breakout support has held the significance of this is reducing by the day. Technicals are a little mixed with a weak MACD and On-Balance-Volume 'sell' in play. Ideally, an intraday spike down to 7,600 would nicely knock out stops, but will we see one?</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq sits on 20-day and 50-day MAs. As a range bound index it's more prone to noise, and therefore could go either way, but I'm happy to see this go higher. If the S&P and Russell 2000 ($IWM) post gains, then look for the Nasdaq to follow. There are three bearish technicals to one positive. This may yet drift back to 25K, but given current action, I don't think it will.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin marked a tag reversal off its 50-week MA. This may mean a few weeks of consolidation before there is a push above 83K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc7Pq2bz0-_4oPxE-yLLOBeFETjbWZPjEtECK6E25aLsc0sSe5RktawXqoYY3GFiKgZkB88GFHqQ3_EqzVabFHEWhP3gOJAXl8Dz_twe1zShcGV2bcx6xglNAMZNBecMoa_J2v2AFxp7R2y3MjX5x3gdnJbMQdHEA4xkpE-8XR9aPsNGKU6Xyt/s1600/btcusd_aug26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc7Pq2bz0-_4oPxE-yLLOBeFETjbWZPjEtECK6E25aLsc0sSe5RktawXqoYY3GFiKgZkB88GFHqQ3_EqzVabFHEWhP3gOJAXl8Dz_twe1zShcGV2bcx6xglNAMZNBecMoa_J2v2AFxp7R2y3MjX5x3gdnJbMQdHEA4xkpE-8XR9aPsNGKU6Xyt/s1600/btcusd_aug26.png"/></a></div>
<p>On the Daily chart, watch for a bearish fakeout. We may see a big one-day move down, stabilizes, before resuming higher.</p>
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<P>I haven't mentioned the Dow Industiral Average, but there was a nice two-bar bullish reversal that sets up for a challenge of the 'gravestone doji' with a high at 54.7K.</p>
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<p>Indices have been remarkably stable over the last few days. The trend is bullish. The setup is bullish. Markets just need buyers to deliver.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-62322658713923216112026-08-24T22:56:58.382+01:002026-08-24T22:56:58.383+01:00Bitcoin Surge Kicks Off Right-Hand Base<p>The long term 'buy' signal in Bitcoin has paid dividends (for now), and given those who wanted a short term trade a solid boost. It will ease back over the coming days, but long term buyers can safely hold as it's unlikely to come back to 65K anytime soon. As I mentioned before, this is a successful test of the 200-week MA. Only upside remains.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is playing to a 'bull trap' with converged 20-day and 50-day MAs working as support. 'Bull Traps' are reliable reversal patterns, but until supporting moving averages break I would side with bulls. Technicals are mixed with 'sell' triggers in the MACD and +DI/-DI, but not enough to ring the bearish bells.</p>
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<p>The S&P is holding breakout support, although it has a mini-'bull trap' of its own to contend with. Even if losses were to continue, there is a 50-day MA to provide support. For those looking for a long-trade opportunity, the S&P is it.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq is, and remains, range bound. Like the Russell 2000 ($IWM) it sits on converged support of 20-day and 50-day MAs. Technicals are mostly negative, but there remains a good chance buyers will step in at the moving averages, despite the trading range.</p>
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<p>The Semiconductor Index has been in pullback mode since doubling from April to June. Fib retracements did not mark the full 61.8% retracements, but a secondary move down to test the 200-day MA (and confirm the 61.8% retracement) would be a solid buying opportunity.</p>
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<p>Indices trading neer moving averages are still buying opportunities. Breaks of these moving averages means staying on the sidelines; at least until 200-day MAs or trading range support is tested.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-2343384369004425652026-08-20T23:42:46.079+01:002026-08-20T23:42:46.079+01:00Bitcoin Surge - Long Term Buyers Celebrate<p>Bitcoin has traded around its <b>200-week MA</b> for the best part of the summer, and I have been saying it was a long-term buy at this level. The past few days have seen this cryptocurrency surge, setting in motion the start of the development of the right-hand-base. This base started from the decline in the summer of 2025, and will likely require another year or two before it makes its way back to $125; realistically, it could spend another year trading between $65K and $83K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrCd9I3KBTipscsnR7Sg2n_HzuihDOigC3QYGeiJDXLItNw-EmYeZtgJgUOWupRSslEXISGuvmZ8_V9i9j7jCrcNiNOMkGxkiNF3_eMnGiEs7qev4WG9jk2immsa7Ux-dvoy0e4atvd2h94e7QrBSwRZg2k9PL1lU3l-Qu5MuldeT8Mm1w08a0/s1600/btcusd_aug20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrCd9I3KBTipscsnR7Sg2n_HzuihDOigC3QYGeiJDXLItNw-EmYeZtgJgUOWupRSslEXISGuvmZ8_V9i9j7jCrcNiNOMkGxkiNF3_eMnGiEs7qev4WG9jk2immsa7Ux-dvoy0e4atvd2h94e7QrBSwRZg2k9PL1lU3l-Qu5MuldeT8Mm1w08a0/s1600/btcusd_aug20.png"/></a></div>
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<a name='more'></a><p>While Bitcoin climbs higher, lead indices head lower. The breakout in the S&P is still intact, but the 'bull trap' is confirmed.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiE17tFliXktHom4Ul6UtiGOhlSv4OrWWSg6AyylsELq6G1ZfYYYHVBF7Xjxqr2cKwFzDsOmZIGK17pkxoK2T2jZ9Aei_Tr9SOlVIkryqRn2Gofw0sbzEizjPB-3AHoGYoMR_WVg8469A2qQvE_ebzMPbxFE28_hwQ0txiVovYstr-04ZSSmap/s1600/spx_aug20b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiE17tFliXktHom4Ul6UtiGOhlSv4OrWWSg6AyylsELq6G1ZfYYYHVBF7Xjxqr2cKwFzDsOmZIGK17pkxoK2T2jZ9Aei_Tr9SOlVIkryqRn2Gofw0sbzEizjPB-3AHoGYoMR_WVg8469A2qQvE_ebzMPbxFE28_hwQ0txiVovYstr-04ZSSmap/s1600/spx_aug20b.png"/></a></div>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has confirmed its 'bull trap' with new 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. While volume has been generally light, the past few days have seen distribution creep higher.</p>
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<p>There was selling in the Nasdaq, but it carries little weight because its range bound.</p>
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<p>Heading into tomorrow, focus will be on Bitcoin as traders look for opportunities. Shorts will need to keep their stops tight should bulls decide to step in as they have been all too ready to do this past year. The Russell 2000 looks the best shorting opportunity as confirmed 'bull traps' are reliable indicators for moves back to support - which for the Russell 2000 is around $287. There may be some action at the 20-day/50-day MA, but given the last test was as recently as July, the incentive for buyers to step in here will be less.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-27830848250063078392026-08-18T22:57:22.831+01:002026-08-18T22:57:22.832+01:00Media Talks Of "Slides" But Breakouts Not Done Yet<p>One (semi-)bad day in markets does not make for a bear market. Today didn't deliver for markets the baby-step gains of recent days, but instead offered a large step down.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) edged a breakout last week, but today's loss took it back to breakout support. Another down day tomorrow will mean a 'bull trap' and a likely move down to (and below) $287, and would probably be a short play. Longer term, the 200-day MA would come into play.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The S&P is caught in a bit of a no-mans land between a narrow handle and breakout support. There is the potential for a 'bull trap', but it's all quite subtle. We have a new 'sell' signal in On-Balance-Volume to go with increased distribution over the last couple of days. An undercut of 7.600 would effectively confirm the 'bull trap', and open for a short play down to 7,300.</p>
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<p>The equal-weighted S&P had already banked more gains than the weighted S&P, so today's loss is not so damaging, but it does market a potential shift in the rate of advance for the rally; test of a 20-day MA looks a minimum, test of 50-day MA preferable.</p>
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<p>I'm less concerned with the Nasdaq because it has remained range bound throughout the July-August rally. There is a 'sell' signal in On-Balance-Volume, and a pending one in +DI/-DI, but it's not there yet. As a range bound index, it will take a solid push below $25K to confirm a bearish break. For now, it's a weak shorting opportunity.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin had drifted back to converged 20-day and 50-day MAs before it staged a one-day gain yesterday. The larger summer range is the dominant influence, but it won't have to wait long for the 200-day MA to make its presence felt. I still think this is long term 'buy', but the near term picutre remains scrappy.</p>
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<p>We will have to consider the potential for longer term pull backs if selling continues tomorrow, but for now, there is enough nearby support to continue last week's breakouts. Shorts can be aggressive, but if today's gap breakdowns close, then all short bets are off.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-84883740933424187152026-08-11T21:57:33.757+01:002026-08-11T21:57:33.757+01:00S&P Trades Tight Handle With Excellent Risk:Reward For Longs<p>Bullish setups continue to present themselves for traders. Best of these look to be in the S&P, but there are good setups all around. The S&P is trading a narrow handle just above its initial breakout. Technicals are net bullish and showing no sign of negative divergence. Volume has been declining across this narrow pattern, as expected, but should pick up on the breakout. If there is a caveat, watch for the fakeout; this will show as a spike low - possibly as soon as tomorrow - with a close back in the range. The index should break higher the day after this happens. A fakeout spike would be an nice buy. Any fakeout shouldn't need to undercut 7,600.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is already signalling a move higher, small though today's move was. This is a good omen for the S&P and is a safe hold. Looking for target of 10K.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is knocking around $301 resistance, also in a tight range, and ready to break higher. Technicals are a little more mixed in that On-Balance-Volume is trading lower, but is close to a new 'buy' trigger. It's perhaps the best positioned of the indices to go higher but $300 resistance is still in play.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq is pushing up against resitance in what is also looking like a pending breakout. The only downside is that 27K is still resistance, and there is a 'sell' in On-Balance-Volume.</p>
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<p>The only disappointment was Bitcoin. While I continue to rate it a strong long term buy, the near term trade has failed to lift off. It remains bound by the 20-day MA and 65,535 resistance, and at today's closing price is an aggressive buy, but this may yet drift lower before it can mount a challenge on its 200-day MA. Technicals are mixed, with the MACD generating a new 'sell' signal.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow, look to lead indices to break near-term resistance that has lasted the past 5 days. These are offering good risk:reward at today's close (assuming a fill at a similar price at the open) and may yet evolve into something bigger.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-40733390371730938322026-08-09T22:36:59.196+01:002026-08-09T22:36:59.196+01:00Bulls Take Friday's Finish As Breakouts Offer Excellent Risk:Reward Plays<p>It was a good close to the end of week. Bulls have set things up nicely for next week, to the point that even buying at the open might be worth a shot (assuming no major gap higher). The Russell 2000 ($IWM) offers good risk:reward using a stop on Thursday's lows.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P has returned to challenging the inverse hammer with net bullish technicals. This is a good hold, particulary for those who bought the breakout retest at the end of July.</p>
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<p>The S&P is another with a nice risk:reward play with measured risk off a loss of Thursday's lows. Technicals are net bullish and the index is no longer extended beyond its 200-day MA.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq also finished strong, but given the trading range it will take a little more to get out of this status quo.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin is back in a net bullish state as it preps for a second run at 65,535. Technicals are net bullish and it feels like a test of the 200-day MA will come on the next push higher.</p>
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<p>Things looking good for next week barring some unforseen Trump intervention. Risk:reward is very favorable and there is no overhead resistance.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-16254709063982019862026-08-06T22:51:53.435+01:002026-08-06T22:51:53.435+01:00Equal Weighted Nasdaq 100 Falls Back Inside Base<p>It came, it saw, it conquered, then retreated. The equal weighted Nasdaq 100 edged a breakout earlier in the week, but has returned inside its base following the selling of the past few days. I have redrawn resistance as a result. The index has switched to a 'sell' in On-Balance-Volume, but other indicators are still bullish.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has also dipped back into its base, but volume has been steadily falling the past few days as On-Balance-Volume trends lower. The 20-day and 50-day MA have been playing as support and the last convergence of these averages provided the catalyst for the breakout attempt and should offer support again if prices fall back to these levels again.</p>
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<p>The S&P hasn't fallen back into its prior base as it looks to give latecomers another bite of the cherry; anything in the low 7600s should be seen as attractive for longs. Technicals are net bullish.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq is caught in the middle of its trading range as On-Balance-Volume returns to a 'sell' signal. I wouldn't read too much into this index until it gets to either 25K or 27K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinL6eeokgzWCx5_63ehsd92S6kknWhUGowNeG5FsFqF2OYVPPSMw2unJJDk6y2RqBBT-anP9THrSzaNw3FP6WPwyyf5RWAUvd588zSi9AqZGQ5pQx46G-LewmFVLAsuhb4dnLZREjIAZah0ZLINOj3ivYO-OVQGTFwLNCOaJlPycDQw_8T59Pm/s1600/nas_aug6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinL6eeokgzWCx5_63ehsd92S6kknWhUGowNeG5FsFqF2OYVPPSMw2unJJDk6y2RqBBT-anP9THrSzaNw3FP6WPwyyf5RWAUvd588zSi9AqZGQ5pQx46G-LewmFVLAsuhb4dnLZREjIAZah0ZLINOj3ivYO-OVQGTFwLNCOaJlPycDQw_8T59Pm/s1600/nas_aug6.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin continues to knock around below 65K and it may require a retest of 57.5K before buyers get a second wind. Technicals are a bit of a mixed bag, but if it can make a strong run at 65K then there is a bit of room to get it to its 200-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG9tAz7EfUBGujf4ui1ey9N2trqutgvUDaehLXWSNdsgCG92yacwkBhGRbLSsmamhRtDoUeSFi05JezRJQCu2FaPYoIszxwrsQhBGBzaYRU62xKrQ6RFDXKxM7jnrNdAyGqVZJlcFRICx4R82hHgkiKGJGPNCIHjgl0dG_HeFCIdBfBFlt9xB4/s1600/btcusd_aug6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG9tAz7EfUBGujf4ui1ey9N2trqutgvUDaehLXWSNdsgCG92yacwkBhGRbLSsmamhRtDoUeSFi05JezRJQCu2FaPYoIszxwrsQhBGBzaYRU62xKrQ6RFDXKxM7jnrNdAyGqVZJlcFRICx4R82hHgkiKGJGPNCIHjgl0dG_HeFCIdBfBFlt9xB4/s1600/btcusd_aug6.png"/></a></div>
<p>Today's losses were in line with expectation after early week surges. Look for tests of breakout support and take advantage with long trades. Long term investors have Bitcoin as indices come back within range of their 200-day MAs (i.e. are no longer overbought).</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-90228902809857836782026-08-04T22:29:41.156+01:002026-08-04T22:29:41.156+01:00Breakouts in Equal Weighted Nasdaq 100 and S&P<p>There was good news across indices, but the big winners were the equal weighted Nasdaq 100 and S&P. The S&P posted a solid gain on modest volume. Technicals are net bullish, negating the 'bear flag' in the process. Interestingly, just as the S&P breaks from its summer consolidation, it starts to underperform relative to the Nasdaq.</p>
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<p>The equal weighted Nasdaq 100 has managed to return to a net bulllish technical picture with a relative performance gain over the equal-weighted S&P. The index has met the measured move target of the May breakout, but there is a good chance it will do so here.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRnRp_v02KK9dBQ8kVBvL1XWLrhr6bJmOs01Hjat6ubqf1lZnYrZqb4QFiJas4A10nbZz7CUp95TrgoPazZlysH3HPfuSM_fnBnU-mbaNhTG-kuOoADvIIwzbx6LTbL8wDVYYfVUWbjOY9X0vcAjY10CvfQtNpzsygonvxpD3giXJGC9Q-8DHf/s1600/qqew_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRnRp_v02KK9dBQ8kVBvL1XWLrhr6bJmOs01Hjat6ubqf1lZnYrZqb4QFiJas4A10nbZz7CUp95TrgoPazZlysH3HPfuSM_fnBnU-mbaNhTG-kuOoADvIIwzbx6LTbL8wDVYYfVUWbjOY9X0vcAjY10CvfQtNpzsygonvxpD3giXJGC9Q-8DHf/s1600/qqew_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<p>The equal-weighted S&P had sucessfully defended breakout support, posting a secons gain to bring it to new all-ttime closing highs. Technicals have retained a net bullish picture. There is no overhead supply bar psychological resistance at 10K.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) hasn't yet posted a new breakout, but it came very close to doing one today. As with other indices, it's afflicted with summer trading volume as technicals return net bullish.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin edged higher, but it was generally a low key day. I remain long term bullish on the cryptocurrency. Note, I haven't recorded a new (base) breakout for the asset.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRSUEQhCAk6PyjtPCyQdG10dAF8yk5lCcHjkkTGEOFO4XaDzxU5klziy6gj11G9yawhCOfXfPSV0m74nOn_rdLEYoLN9Ywe9A1SVMXZXVFrfL7PyRAglRCB7VyPWJb0XJVEnbMRycxt_RDEjmFaFMQAUt98IKSVphjJ1yJKuV9am3O6lY1sEhX/s1600/btcusd_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRSUEQhCAk6PyjtPCyQdG10dAF8yk5lCcHjkkTGEOFO4XaDzxU5klziy6gj11G9yawhCOfXfPSV0m74nOn_rdLEYoLN9Ywe9A1SVMXZXVFrfL7PyRAglRCB7VyPWJb0XJVEnbMRycxt_RDEjmFaFMQAUt98IKSVphjJ1yJKuV9am3O6lY1sEhX/s1600/btcusd_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<p>It has been a good start to the week for those who bought the counter move following the 'bear trap' in the Nasdaq. First profit target is May highs (resistance), but I would be looking for a follow through breakout after this test given action elsewhere.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhENVrpC3Era0ZIZKWjRQ7M1HxUe8bICE7X0Zt8E9Iwp25Ae3SFVxxNb49g8TlArbWz4BkuE8ijnJ5wAMoAyMHRq57937FqxUOLP8GWqJ2ucOZuuimFsOiN7zXgl7PBlbevKtc5-Rrc5WdiBgPN3EoUsPIS49E4wD6pdpguL3hxpndZVtvD5tMH/s1600/compq_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhENVrpC3Era0ZIZKWjRQ7M1HxUe8bICE7X0Zt8E9Iwp25Ae3SFVxxNb49g8TlArbWz4BkuE8ijnJ5wAMoAyMHRq57937FqxUOLP8GWqJ2ucOZuuimFsOiN7zXgl7PBlbevKtc5-Rrc5WdiBgPN3EoUsPIS49E4wD6pdpguL3hxpndZVtvD5tMH/s1600/compq_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<p>For those indices that have marked new breakouts, watch for pullback retests of new support as a potential buy. Otherwise, Bitcoin remains the best buying opportunity.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-66761982808850264182026-08-02T23:12:35.618+01:002026-08-02T23:12:35.619+01:00Potential 'Bear Trap' in Nasdaq as Equal Weighted S&P Tests Breakout Support<p>Last week's winner was the equal-weighted S&P as it marked a clear breakout, but the index came back to breakout support (and stayed there) by Friday's close. The better news is the last two days have seen two doji/hammers with rebound support off the 20-day MA. Technicals have dropped out of a net bullish state with a MACD trigger 'sell'. It's a buying opportunity with a stop on a loss of Friday's low.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is trading around its 50-day MA in what is looking to be decent support. If there is a little red flag, it's that since the peak at $302 it has eased back on heavier distribution days with On-Balance-Volume trending down. This suggests the 50-day MA won't hold as support and there is a large chunk of space between the 50-day and 200-day MA. We have stochastics near the mid-line, which should be a rally point, but failing that, there is room to go before momemuntum becomes oversold.</p>
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<p>The S&P has rallied back from a 'bear flag' to take the index above its 20-day and 50-day MAs. Technicals remain mixed - mostly bearish - but there is a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. The broader reality is that this index has been range bound since May and a gain or loss on Monday is unlikely to change that.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq might be the best long trade on offer. It finished last week on a 'bear trap' with a decent opportunity for a move back to 27K. Friday's doji marked indecision just below its 20-day MA, but 25K is a natural support level to measure risk:reward off. Technicals are net bearish and have moved out of an oversold state.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin has stayed at its *200-week MA* and after coming back from 125K last year, it's now time to see buyers make a larger move higher. Technicals are mostly bearish bar a weak 'buy' in the MACD (on the weekly time frame).</p>
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<p>Semiconductors have been the story of the week but one only has to look at the monthly chart to see how much it can fall and still be considered bullish. The first bullish fib retracement doesn't kick in until sub-10K, and we are still a long way from that.</p>
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<p>Keep an eye on the relationship between Consumer Discretionary and Staples. When this relationship head south it's typically bad news for markets, but we can see in 2011 that a comparable scenario eventually brought with it a multi-year rally. I have drawn in a support line for this relationship. I'm looking for a break of this line, a negative impact on markets, before offering a strong, long-term buying opportunity.</p>
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<p>For the coming week, we want to see early bullish action to confirm support, with those indices already at support offering a direct buying opportunity.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-23991891733444630562026-07-29T00:29:39.961+01:002026-07-29T00:29:39.961+01:00Bitcoin Successfully Tests 50-day MA on Bullish Hammer<p>Bitcoin is holding to a bullish setup with a nice looking bullish hammer/doji on the 50-day MA. When we look at reversal candlesticks we want to see these occur when momentum is oversold; and in the case of a bullish trend, this oversold state occurs at the midline (50), not sub 20. Bitcoin had suffered heavy selling to bring it to July lows, and while action since then has been a little scrappy, I still like bullish trades, particularly long term (6 months+).</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P broke to new highs in a decisive move. There was a new strong 'buy' trigger in the MACD (above the bullish zero line), with a sharp rise in relative performance over the weighted S&P.</p>
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<p>You wouldn't really have noticed the breakout in the parent S&P. Yes, there was a gain, but it's lost within the bounds of the May-July trading range. Also, there was no new MACD 'buy', although stochastics have moved below the critical 50 midline. There was a new 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume and relative performance has accelerated sharply from its Spring period of underperformance. The trade favors bulls despite the mixed technical picture.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) spent a fourth day at its 50-day MA. It closed with a small doji on the moving average, with short term stochastics just above an oversold state. Other technicals are bearish, but the index is outperforming the Nasdaq. Here too is a buyers trade.</p>
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<p>THe Nasdaq has dropped below 25K support with a small doji, marked with higher volume distribution. Other technicals are bearish. If this is to be a bullish signal (and therefore a bear trap), then buyers need to step in tomorrow to take this above 25K.</p>
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<p>We still have bullish setups across indices across Bitcoin, equal-weighted S&P, and Russell 2000. News has focused on Semiconductors, but Fib retracements show we haven't even reached the first support level. Expect further losses, but these losses remain in line with a bullish setup.</p>
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<p>For now, indices stick with bullish setups.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-71651340859245811932026-07-26T23:12:22.113+01:002026-07-26T23:12:22.113+01:00Scrappy Support Holds For Indices As Bitcoin Trades Near 50-day MA<p>Summer trading dominates as indices trade near support levels while Bitcoin comes back off June highs.</p>
<p>The equal weighted S&P recovered 8,600, returning its outperformance to the weighted S&P, a better scenario for the long term health of the S&P (weighted or unweighted). The recovery was enough for it to poke its head above its 20-day MA. The MACD continues to decline from its weak MACD trigger 'sell' but a couple more up days may be enough to see a new, strong 'buy' signal. Aggressive buyers could look to get in here to pre-empt this signal; a stop goes on a loss of 8,560.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The S&P posted a second doji in a row following a gap down from a 'bear flag'. Given action in the equal-weighted S&P there is a reasonable change for gap higher and a move back to 7,600; look to premarket for leads. The index is increasing its outperformance relative to the Nasdaq.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq struggled to get above its 50-day MA and is currently trading below its 20-day MA. It now finds itself back at $25K psychological support (also a double wing low in June) in what looks like a larger move towards its 200-day MA (as triple bottoms are rare), but if you want an aggressive buy, then there is one from Friday's close.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has been the relative outperformer to the Nasdaq and S&P over the course of the summer, but it has been drifting lower since the June peak. It's testing the 50-day MA after weeks of declines. There is a buying opportunity as declines have been modest. If we see buying action in the Nasdaq and S&P, then there is a good chance for a carryover trade in the Russell 2000 with stops on a loss of the 50-day MA.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB2G-bAg5kBPpG73TWJbtYykUuaejSHGvUOgQpGiFiHertAP1VFBZAT8KV8Wk7mEagw7Q25bfaKzbLniPPj411Dr2yLlDn2TiduNWrkJCNAZDA6s2rCGZAUokultN1tEjjR9TdAoAx4pz4VnAbIqsLjXws-onf4g2vLI4e3qbLxQimUuKAOs4W/s1600/iwm_jul26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB2G-bAg5kBPpG73TWJbtYykUuaejSHGvUOgQpGiFiHertAP1VFBZAT8KV8Wk7mEagw7Q25bfaKzbLniPPj411Dr2yLlDn2TiduNWrkJCNAZDA6s2rCGZAUokultN1tEjjR9TdAoAx4pz4VnAbIqsLjXws-onf4g2vLI4e3qbLxQimUuKAOs4W/s1600/iwm_jul26.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin may take a little longer to get its right-hand-base to take shape. It rejected its first move to get past 67K but with the 200-day MA coming back to current price it will add another incentive to get buyers to jump in again. Technicals are net positive and momentum has only just dropped out of an overbought state. This is long term bullish despite the extended weakness that brought the cryptocurrency to this point.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8gw2V2AxYZaxRzgo8Bq5ojqFxrRckG2sfs8M3rcc_UbDit5ki64HNFkHW7Lwl8ZgZ77s9CqzhLpEDkNspR9gsjewTbtNgFsdxZN2h7J41cTA_m5101MB2g4d5_ukRVYvUvZ1vn5w0MYdpmCHOCHk_FNESz0mxRooua1IZk-P0PeoKSDA9NR2w/s1600/btcusd_jul26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8gw2V2AxYZaxRzgo8Bq5ojqFxrRckG2sfs8M3rcc_UbDit5ki64HNFkHW7Lwl8ZgZ77s9CqzhLpEDkNspR9gsjewTbtNgFsdxZN2h7J41cTA_m5101MB2g4d5_ukRVYvUvZ1vn5w0MYdpmCHOCHk_FNESz0mxRooua1IZk-P0PeoKSDA9NR2w/s1600/btcusd_jul26.png"/></a></div>
<p>We haven't seen an extended period of buying since April, but we should be seing another period soon and tomorrow offers buying incentives for those willing to take them (and manage their risk).</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-3027058788029106782026-07-22T23:06:20.155+01:002026-07-22T23:06:20.156+01:00Market Drift Continues as Equal Weighted S&P Breaks Bull Trend<p>The only index to mark any change was the break down in the equal-weighted S&P as it dropped out of its bullish trend into a trading range. If this is a trading range, then it finished at the first of a possible support level. If this breaks from here, then next support is the 50-day MA. Technicals are mixed with a weak 'sell' trigger on a trendless ADX, and momentum that has fallen out of an overbought state. Next target is the 50-day MA.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has been slow-and-steady in its decline;alternating between gains and losses. The index is close to its 50-day MA but I would perhaps wait for a test of the mid-line stochastic (50 line) before the next buying opportunity.</p>
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<p>The 'bear flag' in the S&P is the result of a gap down, but it's a weak signal as the trading range with support at 7,250 is the dominant pattern.</p>
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<p>It was similar case for the Nasdaq as for the S&P. It gapped down with its own 'bear flag', although it's trading closer to 25K support. The 200-day MA is next support if 25K support fails.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin is back challenging the June swing high, and has support at 65,535 to hold. The cryptocurrency remains on course to shape the right-hand-base, but there is no rush.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPlgCz5QxlIboQJywtmRhrzyh24DbE19dRRSeLkEHOr2dASWqEElC3oRd_otsISjMa27ayTlnRdlf9V-4OcHyVQJc9ufwARhptumZqO_X1kuKKlHkfl-3kuHMHecBynkIAPj9aVPWW8tOA2A9xIQix3K7TyaYjCc0AZtVKQfshXH57htk0Q5JD/s1600/btcusd_jul22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPlgCz5QxlIboQJywtmRhrzyh24DbE19dRRSeLkEHOr2dASWqEElC3oRd_otsISjMa27ayTlnRdlf9V-4OcHyVQJc9ufwARhptumZqO_X1kuKKlHkfl-3kuHMHecBynkIAPj9aVPWW8tOA2A9xIQix3K7TyaYjCc0AZtVKQfshXH57htk0Q5JD/s1600/btcusd_jul22.png"/></a></div>
<p>Assuming markets continue their current non-trend, then look for buys at support, first of which may be an aggressive 'buy' in the equal weighted S&P despite the early week trend break.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-63109855598958035932026-07-19T21:53:59.757+01:002026-07-19T21:53:59.758+01:00Markets Drifting Lower<p>Sellers took Friday's laurels with sizable enough gap downs for the S&P and Nasdaq. I consider both of these markets to be range bound, so the gaps are not as bearish as they might otherwise be had they occurred from a break of trend.</p>
<p>The Nasdaq is under the most pressure as Friday's gap down has taken the index closest to support defined by the June swing lows. Even if this support is lost, there will be another level to aim for down at the 200-day MA currently at 23,877. Technicals are net bearish, with momentum not oversold. This means further selling can be exspected, but we don't have any crash conditions despite the bearishness of other indicators. One to watch.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The S&P finished Friday just under its 50-day MA and while it experienced the gap down, it's not as bearish as the Nasdaq. Technicals are also more mixed. The June swing low is the target, but if it can stage an early recovery this week then this gap down will become an afterthought.</p>
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<p>The equal-weighted S&P is trading at trendline support in a to-and-fro battle at support. A short trade would likely require the undercut of 8,570. Longs need an end-of-day close above 8,700, but this might be hard given action in the weighted S&P.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) booked its own loss, but not enough to challenge the 50-day MA. This is the index best positioned to book a gain, and maybe manage a new closing all-time high over the coming week or two. Technicals are mostly bearish, although momentum has only dropped out of an overbought state, marking favorable bullish conditions.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin still looks to favor bulls, although it hasn't been a clean rally off the 57,500 test. Technicals are net bullish and its trading above its 50-day MA. It's probably the best near and long term trade at the moment.</p>
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<p>One thing that's shifting into a more bearish alignment are Nasdaq breadth metrics. The Percentage of Stocks above 50-day MA, 200-day MA and Bullish Percents are net bearish. These are fairly reliable reversal markers, so an extended period of selling (and take profits/short trade)is likely coming.</p>
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<p>It's hard to read too much into summer trading. Trump's action in Iran will cloud the picture, but it has become background noise to the big picture. Bears may be able to push things lower, but I can't see the Spring swing lows getting challenged and 200-day MAs are looking the most likely downside targets.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-80526658758296554342026-07-15T11:57:39.763+01:002026-07-15T11:57:39.764+01:00Bitcoin Breaks Through 50-day MA<p>Not a whole lot to add from the weekend. After yesterday's action I had thought bears had regained control after previously mentioning how the index had overcome the prior bearish markers.</p>
<p>Bitcoin pushed through the 50-day MA on lighter volume, but with the counter move against yesterday's selling it now opens up for a move to the 200-day MA.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The pattern breakout in the S&P continues to hold and remains favored to push higher.</p>
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<p>It's a similar situation for the Nasdaq; look for the breakout to continue higher.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains range bound, just drifting below its 20-day MA. It will probably drift down to its 50-day MA before it attracts buyers. The trend is higher, even if the rate of ascent has slowed and trading volume falls.</p>
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<p>The equal-weighted S&P is running against channel support and is looking like it wants to break lower. If this happens, it will risk the upsdie breakout in the weighted S&P. Let's see what happens. A break of the trendline here would offer a shorting opportunity (a spread trade between the weighted/equal-weighted S&P?).</p>
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<p>Bitcoin is holding on to its 50-day MA. It may linger there before it starts shaping a new right-hand-side base.</p>
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<p>There are trading opportunities there for the taking. Long-term investors are in a holding pattern, although Bitcoin is looking like it will hold its 200-*week* MA, which is a good long term opportunity. Summer trading in full flow.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-65590627256482013312026-07-13T00:14:42.328+01:002026-07-13T00:14:42.329+01:00Pattern Breakouts in S&P and Nasdaq, as Bitcoin on Buy Signal<p>The consolidations I mapped out last week for the S&P and Nasdaq, shipped breakouts move on Friday. Volume wasn't particularly high, but there were technical improvements for these indices.</p>
<p>The breakout in the S&P saw a new On-Balance-Volume breakout to follow the early 'buy' trigger in the MACD. The index is enjoying a relative improvement over the Nasdaq.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq also edged higher out of its consolidation, running along its 50-day MA in the process. The MACD is on a new 'buy' trigger along with the stochastics mid-line. The index is outperforming the Russell 2000.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had a quiet Friday, drifting along on ever decreasing volume. This apathy has led to an underperformance relative to the Nasdaq and S&P, although momentum has maintained strong.</p>
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<p>The equal-weighted S&P is holding to its upwward trend, although its drifting ever closer to support. The MACD is strong, but is on a weak 'sell' signal. If there is a break of the trendline, look for a move to test 8,300.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin was heading lower, but after getting close to its measured move target it rejected the bearish challenge on the tweezer bottom, and instead reversed higher (effectively, confirming the tweezer bottom - if a little unconventional). It has since regained its 20-day MA and is on course to challenge its 50-day MA. If it gets past the 50-day MA, it will take out the most last shorting opportunity generated by the spike high from the 20-day MA in June. This is coming off a heavy sell off from $126K and looks ready to make gains that could last months to years... As an aside, this is bouncing off the 200-week MA.</p>
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<p>With summer in full swing we are seeing a drop off in trading volume, but there are opportunities for those stuck at home. Bitcoin looks best of the bunch, but the Nasdaq and S&P also have potential.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-49487739353856332872026-07-09T00:41:51.372+01:002026-07-09T00:41:51.373+01:00Indices Broaden Into Trading Ranges<p>Not a whole lot has happened since my last update. Indices are morphing into trading ranges, minimizing the impact of some of the losses, even losses registering higher volume distribution.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) undercut its 20-day MA on confirmed distribution. Technicals saw new losses in the MACD and +DI/-DI. Next up is the 50-day MA. Such a test will confirm a sequence of higher highs and higher lows - maintaining the rally - or confirming trading range support...</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P took over a 1% loss today as it tagged its 20-day MA and trendline support. Technicals remain net positive.</p>
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<p>The S&P is trading inside a broader trading range, thats also a bullish symmetrical triangle. Technicals are mixed; bullish MACD and Stochastics offset by bearish On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. The trade is swing trade on break of support/resistance with a stop on the flip side.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq is also shaping a consolidation within a larger trading range. Here, the consolidation triangle should break in the direction of the trend (higher); if trading this break, a stop goes on a loss of 25K. Technicals are bearish, so the risk for failure of this break is high.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin got a bit of a reprieve after managing a bounce off 57.5K, that for a while, looked like it was going to fail. It followed this with a push above its 20-day MA, but it has since failed to break through 65K and at least challenge the last swing high. This is still the best shorting opportunity, but cover if there a move back to 64.5K.</p>
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<p>There are trading opportunities across the different asset classes, but broader trends are still open for debated. Prior action (except in Bitcoin) favors bulls, but let price be your lead.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-5418781898562610472026-06-30T22:48:42.485+01:002026-06-30T22:48:42.486+01:00S&P and Nasdaq Posts Gains To Maintain Consolidation<p>Both the Nasdaq and S&P posted small gains after yesterday's to keep the consolidation intact and return both indices above their respective 50-day MAs. Buying volume was down for both indices. Nasdaq technicals remain net bearish, although momentum for the S&P is bouncing off the midline - an area of support in a cyclical bull market.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is holding breakout support as it trades near highs. Of the main indices, it's best positioned to kick on to new all-time highs. If it's able to do so, then look for the Nasdaq and S&P to challenge their June highs.</p>
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<p>The equal weighted S&P has also squeezed itself at all-time highs. It's a good swing trade opportunity; trade the break of today's narrow range (high/low) and place your stop on the flip side - a high risk:reward trade when you can trail a stop, particularly when a breakeven trade can probably be established quite quickly.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin is drifting lower and I'll be looking for a big red candlestick (>5%) soon. Hard to see why buyers would be keen to step in for an asset that has no intrinsic value. It's a short trade, although not as attractive as it was when it traded at its 20-day MA (marked by blue arrows on the chart).</p>
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<p>Semiconductors have made a solid recovery over the past couple of days and there is an increasing chance this will hold the gains from March (amazing really, given the index has doubled over this time).</p>
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<p>We have a number of trade opportunities across markets; for bulls, there is the Russell 2000, for swing traders there is the equal-weighted S&P, and for bears there is Bitcoin. I will be offline until next Wednesday as I'm travelling, we will see how these predictions pan out.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-81196896263633363072026-06-28T22:41:32.089+01:002026-06-28T22:41:32.089+01:00S&P Joins Nasdaq With Net Bearish Technicals<p>It's not all doom-and-gloom, but there is a split between the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) and the Nasdaq ($COMPQ) and weighted S&P ($SPX). It's still unclear which side will win out, but we can play each trade as it stands.</p>
<p>The S&P dropped below its 50-day MA on higher volume distribution, enough so that it's now considered to be net bearish. The index is outperforming the Nasdaq, but unless there is a quick recovery this index will drift back to 7K; shorts can place a stop above its 50-day MA.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq had already undercut its 50-day MA, and lost further ground on Friday on higher volume distribution; a sign of what's to come for the S&P. Technicals are net negative, but are not oversold, so this remains on course to make it to 24K.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) sits on the other side of the coin. The index managed to rally from $296 before closing just shy of $300. Compared to the aforementioned indices, it's net bullish. I would expect gains to continue; longs can place a stop below Friday's lows.</p>
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<p>The equal-weighted S&P closed with a bullish white candlestick, completing a sequence of "three white soldiers", which is a continuation bullish pattern. Technicals are mixed, but price action is key and this is on course to make new highs (Friday's high counts as a new all-time closing high).</p>
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<p>Bitcoin is siding with bears. Last week offered the potential for a tweezer bottom, but Friday's small loss eased back into the tweezer spike lows. Technicals are net negative, including a new bearish 'sell' trigger in the MACD.</p>
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<p>The Dow Industrials is drifting sideways with spike highs taking up most of the action for the last couple of weeks. Technicals are net bullish, although the MACD is shifting sideways as On-Balance-Volume trends sharply higher - although Friday's bearish distribution bucks this trend.</p>
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<p>The other problematic index is the Semiconductor Index. It has played to a bull trap and undercut its 20-day MA in the process. Technicals are mixed, but given the doubling of the index since March it could shed a tonne and not shift bearish.</p>
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<p>There are trades for both sides tomorrow. Waiting after the first half-hour to see the direction of the market will determine if you should be playing the long- or short-side of the market.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-33490048752513758942026-06-24T23:42:34.323+01:002026-06-24T23:42:34.323+01:00Sellers Appear As Support Comes Under Pressure<p>It was going to happen at some point but sellers have come out of the woodwork. Tech was hardest hit, but there is plenty of support for indices to work with.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) was one of the least impacted by the selling. It staged a mini-breakout, while today's inverse hammer came on higher volume accumulation it's still in a position where it could go either way.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is defending the 20-day MA while the MACD holds to a 'sell' trigger. The relative outperformance of the index to the weighted S&P is a positive but the 'tweezer top' remains the dominant influence.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpErP8XtmVzn1uo0XAXP-rCN4g5Xc9MDSYsMGOziYWFpu2a3GGMlpeZBrCvoqVyuR_ynlQApvyvG7w8GdHFdIsrNu2Uv1Iy-q7adVJcgtNsvfNZto9wzHbyFI_2rg9PFuSa4zXOVlSBkJ1e0NU71gHWOKqRj-JbkVAtSNN5ozPclDOkIA9uVOm/s1600/spxew_jujn24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpErP8XtmVzn1uo0XAXP-rCN4g5Xc9MDSYsMGOziYWFpu2a3GGMlpeZBrCvoqVyuR_ynlQApvyvG7w8GdHFdIsrNu2Uv1Iy-q7adVJcgtNsvfNZto9wzHbyFI_2rg9PFuSa4zXOVlSBkJ1e0NU71gHWOKqRj-JbkVAtSNN5ozPclDOkIA9uVOm/s1600/spxew_jujn24.png"/></a></div>
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<p>The weighted S&P ($SPX) is trading at its 50-day MA. The double doji on the gap down has the potential to be a bullish island reversal *if* it can gap higher. Technicals are mostly bearish, while momentum sits at the mid-point that typically marks a tradeworthy bottom. If this should undercut the midpoint in stochastics and price breaks the 50-day MA, then the next target is 7,000.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdZ0-XG2ynhfhatqnvya5AiCkZAWgLPtg_HYsuoA3FnZGgWXjuWwPByyYx6qSrSzLabJtPBaYhcZQMgPexxI73o__pJ7BPHGt0Cj09QQcPoneRccubSP-4qTjDaYhV1xbeUz5h9gfvZJllSczhUa6wUPyvGPk9UwDUVlMnVSeW6SvwzAxNBc3p/s1600/spx_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdZ0-XG2ynhfhatqnvya5AiCkZAWgLPtg_HYsuoA3FnZGgWXjuWwPByyYx6qSrSzLabJtPBaYhcZQMgPexxI73o__pJ7BPHGt0Cj09QQcPoneRccubSP-4qTjDaYhV1xbeUz5h9gfvZJllSczhUa6wUPyvGPk9UwDUVlMnVSeW6SvwzAxNBc3p/s1600/spx_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Nasdaq sits in a similar predictament as the S&P, but it undercut its 50-day MA as selling volume picks up. Technicals are net negative, including an undercut of the stochastic midline I'm looking for the S&P to defend.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjOVVcFbBgLKRhZTy4_-oMzXTZq_RwSp1vfPsGgxxuXYrxhLL5x8M0eH8F7FDKrSXLF59lNulKZdvBShavLk-S_UB-aH4S8hBCcx8YdZpd9nflg6IZjMITIOfgH3y5PX3zql8jAb0rKTwbFYqRIyA_nb7nG4mZ6f-GyYliZJjLHsGtElsMEENh/s1600/nas_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjOVVcFbBgLKRhZTy4_-oMzXTZq_RwSp1vfPsGgxxuXYrxhLL5x8M0eH8F7FDKrSXLF59lNulKZdvBShavLk-S_UB-aH4S8hBCcx8YdZpd9nflg6IZjMITIOfgH3y5PX3zql8jAb0rKTwbFYqRIyA_nb7nG4mZ6f-GyYliZJjLHsGtElsMEENh/s1600/nas_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin continues to favor the short side and a loss of 60K could see another big step lower. Technicals are bearish with the exception of weak MACD 'buy'.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV07n58uCFPINEnz5wnZGyRAC-FucjGWa7_Sp7pxxkQQbEZgt4-BsAP7y55me5cCkZZzLvjqEzh6mQPbGJTee9mK-FwtNk-FsVRP1bxTmiHWJp9kHWPrCH85C7l6hSN1m-QamjYXq_KBIdQ2luTwirhxokn34MSlng9R34TghWm_TtdjPAPD-i/s1600/bitcoin_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV07n58uCFPINEnz5wnZGyRAC-FucjGWa7_Sp7pxxkQQbEZgt4-BsAP7y55me5cCkZZzLvjqEzh6mQPbGJTee9mK-FwtNk-FsVRP1bxTmiHWJp9kHWPrCH85C7l6hSN1m-QamjYXq_KBIdQ2luTwirhxokn34MSlng9R34TghWm_TtdjPAPD-i/s1600/bitcoin_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Dow Industrials are holding out on net bullish technicals, but a sequence of bearish spike highs leaves it vulnerable to selling. Should sellers attack, look for a test of the 20-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB4hrFTPR2R5FrNYYhyKxponWXVTQ7NBP7Xb2OsemeI6cMfVyC2pYDj9zYPGtZ6wbWcKbX_RMYlIYVFLSmt8wO60roPcCz1P17KPwRfLmR3GuJ7cLzbkgz4EypoBQRwGxXG4AtGZ8cJnDv515o9_va845xk_f3HvCOmx-tNivhQpI2quzAnegH/s1600/indu_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB4hrFTPR2R5FrNYYhyKxponWXVTQ7NBP7Xb2OsemeI6cMfVyC2pYDj9zYPGtZ6wbWcKbX_RMYlIYVFLSmt8wO60roPcCz1P17KPwRfLmR3GuJ7cLzbkgz4EypoBQRwGxXG4AtGZ8cJnDv515o9_va845xk_f3HvCOmx-tNivhQpI2quzAnegH/s1600/indu_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>Finally, Semiconductors have left a doji 'bull trap' with 'sell' triggers in the MACD, CCI and ADX, but momentum remains strongly bullish. The index is holding its 20-day MA, but a test of the 50-day MA would be welcome at this point.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaEjREuh-WEqF2xa1DBbbGRuVM9aFbw8FES6lWCzspS_HW7v_HEQeO76xAhvDT8KLpH5gzcd9VtOBR6wDHyePrr8-dwRXJtpu0tAO0-V15UuVspQymkTZAbfSuW6hJdIhrlZGhQ6dMNn8lO7T-KDRjGIaf3piY8_AfEdIkfnby86C0aqVRoQth/s1600/sox_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaEjREuh-WEqF2xa1DBbbGRuVM9aFbw8FES6lWCzspS_HW7v_HEQeO76xAhvDT8KLpH5gzcd9VtOBR6wDHyePrr8-dwRXJtpu0tAO0-V15UuVspQymkTZAbfSuW6hJdIhrlZGhQ6dMNn8lO7T-KDRjGIaf3piY8_AfEdIkfnby86C0aqVRoQth/s1600/sox_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>For tomorrow, interest will be on how indices defend 20-day MAs. Profit taking is likely across the different indices, but if they can stabilize just off highs it will go a long way to calm the nerves of traders concerned with the rapid pace of gains.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-91660127656291220902026-06-23T00:23:13.288+01:002026-06-23T00:23:13.289+01:00Russell 2000 Fresh Breakout<p>A quiet start to the week with only the Russell 2000 ($IWM) suggesting it could be on the move (higher). Today's action registered as a breakout, albeit on low volume, but with technicals net positive. The Russell 2000 has been outperforming the Nasdaq since the start of June, so it has the interest of market participants and is the best placed for those seeking new long trades.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>Some things to watch in other indices. The equal weighted S&P continues to play out the reversal from the Tweezer Top. It's currently down at its 20-day MA with the 50-day MA and 8,320 support next on the test-list. It should see demand at the latter level should it get there.</p>
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<p>Bitcoin is in an interesting state. It had sold off hard into the February low and this should have been the catalyst for a sustained rally. Instead, we got a low key rally to the 200-day MA before sellers returned. We now see it struggling at its 20-day MA having made an initial bounce on the February low retest. Today's inverse hammer looks like another shorting opportunity with a stop above today's high.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKBMalfVRbGaot552lR9ZnRk0jtK3b8VLlkv7Lc0YxjDOl7K2xRGcZgb9y6ll2APAlxdp7mdIQQMm60lag1HLsrYjtDb6J_RZHugrEc7U8n9ZyZpYWcSoZjkVpuCsNzOBpXAGcZycIQ_IwJMH5q3Cdu5v5FRB5lKQ9a8C7z552ezgukZubyMu9/s1600/btcusdjun22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKBMalfVRbGaot552lR9ZnRk0jtK3b8VLlkv7Lc0YxjDOl7K2xRGcZgb9y6ll2APAlxdp7mdIQQMm60lag1HLsrYjtDb6J_RZHugrEc7U8n9ZyZpYWcSoZjkVpuCsNzOBpXAGcZycIQ_IwJMH5q3Cdu5v5FRB5lKQ9a8C7z552ezgukZubyMu9/s1600/btcusdjun22.png"/></a></div>
<p>Semiconductors are showing another topping doji, similar to that from the end of may. Technicals are net positive. So far, these peaks haven't resulted in an extended decline, but today's finish is a marker for one.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpvQWaQdvr30brUak2HLeEDDyqyarWAVx8tBOgFtUL9iZUmSAEhJ7Fs15B8_ESU4phi6bQNGqeVF7yA88K2h6w5GTWOESzJ6bUnWtqlKsnBeOyl60J-8p8t8v-IK3F0K15tZC-8g2lGE3R_c0arlMQQQT5MKbF4BFZnD6xNPL5S03I_2YaVUVG/s1600/sox_jun23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpvQWaQdvr30brUak2HLeEDDyqyarWAVx8tBOgFtUL9iZUmSAEhJ7Fs15B8_ESU4phi6bQNGqeVF7yA88K2h6w5GTWOESzJ6bUnWtqlKsnBeOyl60J-8p8t8v-IK3F0K15tZC-8g2lGE3R_c0arlMQQQT5MKbF4BFZnD6xNPL5S03I_2YaVUVG/s1600/sox_jun23.png"/></a></div>
<p>For tomorrow, we will want to see which side of the market will win out; bulls for the Russell 2000, bears for the equal-weighted S&P. Expect the winner to influence other markets and break the bull/bear picture of the Russell 2000 or equal-weighted S&P.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-11829105439745890092026-06-18T22:47:01.717+01:002026-06-18T22:49:28.330+01:00Bitcoin Continues To Lose Ground As Indices Stabilize<p>Bitcoin continues to play dead as indices hold their ground. The 20-day MA of Bitcoin is resistance as today's selling places it on course to test 60K (again), although I suspect the next test will fail, it's too recent a test since the February low test bounce. Only the MACD is offering a weak 'buy'.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P played true to its tweezer top as yesterday's loss took the index back to its 20-day MA. There is a weak MACD 'sell', but other technicals are bullish. An undercut of the 20-day MA would set up for a test of the 50-day MA.</p>
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<p>The S&P posted big volume, but little change on the day. It might be a swing trade to some; a move above the day's highs would open up a test for the all-time high.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) offers the most bullish setup, with today's candlestick marking buying pressure on net bullish technicals.</p>
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<p>On the other side. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with two bearish spike highs that presents a shortingg opportunity.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYq3jlFWpUB-GNN-vndBQ2-KFrbemZ7OcCbh9VTKapywvicvcQJtByNjAv8dMdViMLjkmgClhSU1Tkb1Q-o6fqm1CdxixdQGrFVMUltVQtTpRjR7y12RkWEslTSS1Wtrwq5nB0KCT6tXg4f7bhZVCt1hfHoW-hcW6lQZv5h7CG_Q6i6GTis6GZ/s1600/djia_jun18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYq3jlFWpUB-GNN-vndBQ2-KFrbemZ7OcCbh9VTKapywvicvcQJtByNjAv8dMdViMLjkmgClhSU1Tkb1Q-o6fqm1CdxixdQGrFVMUltVQtTpRjR7y12RkWEslTSS1Wtrwq5nB0KCT6tXg4f7bhZVCt1hfHoW-hcW6lQZv5h7CG_Q6i6GTis6GZ/s1600/djia_jun18.png"/></a></div>
<p>While the Semiconductor Index accelerates again. It now trades 72%(!) above its 200-day MA. This is simply unsustainable, so watch for the 'bear trap'.</p>
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<p>There are too many big divergences taking place with Semiconductors blasting higher and Bitcoin fading lower. Other indices are caught in the middle, but playing the movers-and-shakers gives near term traders the opportunity for profits, but there is little here for long term investors.</p>
---
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-37157201204409825902026-06-16T23:19:39.657+01:002026-06-16T23:19:39.657+01:00Tweezer Top In Equal Weight S&P - Double Top Semiconductors<p>Back from holiday, and indices flash another round of topping patterns following earlier patterns which were breached, so while one could go short, you don't want to be holding if pattern highs are breached. While I missed the annoucement, the real shocker was the multi-decade lows posted by the Consumer Sentiment Survey - perhaps one of the few legitimate data points that can be trusted. In the past, this has been a bullish signal as the low in sentiment preceeded the low in markets - but markets are at multi-year highs, so I have no idea what will come next.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>Of the indices,we have a couple that are showing topping patterns, if going short then I wouldn't be holding if they go 1% beyond those highs. The more reliable pattern is the tweezer top in the equal weighted S&P. This is looking like a classic reversal play, so shorts have a decent opportunity here.</p>
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<p>The S&P hasn't delivered a clear topping pattern, and hasn't yet reached its measured move target. There isn't much more to say about this.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) continued its reversal off the bearish 'black' candlestick. I would view this as a weak signal as it's exhibiting solid step-by-step gains and offers the best risk-reward for longs.</p>
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<p>Semiconductors are the other shorting opportunity. After successfully reaching its measured move target it's looking ready to make a move lower, although every potential shorting opportunity the index has presented has been blown away. Proceed with caution with the latest offering. There is a weak 'sell' signal in the MACD, and the ADX is in flux.</p>
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<p>Another (better) shorting opportunity is Bitcoin. We have had the rejection of the 200-day MA, and now we are seeing a potential rejection of the 20-day MA after a weak bounce off the test of February lows. Only the MACD is offering a weak 'buy' signal.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow, best trades look to be shorting Bitcoin or the equal-weighted S&P, where everything else is looking like a (long) hold.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.com