tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100197042026-08-13T14:26:32.192+01:00@FallondpicksStock Market Commentary by Dr. Declan Fallon; est. Jan 8th 2005Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comBlogger4632125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-84883740933424187152026-08-11T21:57:33.757+01:002026-08-11T21:57:33.757+01:00S&P Trades Tight Handle With Excellent Risk:Reward For Longs<p>Bullish setups continue to present themselves for traders. Best of these look to be in the S&P, but there are good setups all around. The S&P is trading a narrow handle just above its initial breakout. Technicals are net bullish and showing no sign of negative divergence. Volume has been declining across this narrow pattern, as expected, but should pick up on the breakout. If there is a caveat, watch for the fakeout; this will show as a spike low - possibly as soon as tomorrow - with a close back in the range. The index should break higher the day after this happens. A fakeout spike would be an nice buy. Any fakeout shouldn't need to undercut 7,600.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirQPlKne6fvpLb0deBRLyjS6PmwCC89kShBhFeVXKhlADd4r4SctiKaVuauGsTgxhxQHYcMX_KHzUg7itd31GMoRrV_huLkvoT9RxomfOwnSmEM10XE6wHDp7oYcUlpzkYw6_G6z-SQndKCezmH2SwX7tujlIq-7FlBNwYunaH9GK0WB-u6wyk/s1600/spx_aug8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirQPlKne6fvpLb0deBRLyjS6PmwCC89kShBhFeVXKhlADd4r4SctiKaVuauGsTgxhxQHYcMX_KHzUg7itd31GMoRrV_huLkvoT9RxomfOwnSmEM10XE6wHDp7oYcUlpzkYw6_G6z-SQndKCezmH2SwX7tujlIq-7FlBNwYunaH9GK0WB-u6wyk/s1600/spx_aug8.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is already signalling a move higher, small though today's move was. This is a good omen for the S&P and is a safe hold. Looking for target of 10K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgJrexh2rzB7Y-t9W5CkFGndgeFn5pZqEFlaScnRTT_pdyK1AMTtUPsJlsbBtBupnSwBoVFs6K0ukvBKyWvyGaj8Z9gUgo2Z9b0SzMyRh6IlGiRfkQnYDUA3TOT_WCRW0ZJ5X7nGOVqYXkr38sohl-WpKOZ8PD5xMxoYKxWPsfXMaOPRvFBmY3/s1600/spxew_aug11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgJrexh2rzB7Y-t9W5CkFGndgeFn5pZqEFlaScnRTT_pdyK1AMTtUPsJlsbBtBupnSwBoVFs6K0ukvBKyWvyGaj8Z9gUgo2Z9b0SzMyRh6IlGiRfkQnYDUA3TOT_WCRW0ZJ5X7nGOVqYXkr38sohl-WpKOZ8PD5xMxoYKxWPsfXMaOPRvFBmY3/s1600/spxew_aug11.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is knocking around $301 resistance, also in a tight range, and ready to break higher. Technicals are a little more mixed in that On-Balance-Volume is trading lower, but is close to a new 'buy' trigger. It's perhaps the best positioned of the indices to go higher but $300 resistance is still in play.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj2OUWmbZt9s1F9J_h1uN3SASrNZZxXjScqGmvStTs_SPhlKsBvW2aFMZzY-j_NixQfpsJDV_CVpB-mNSGsnyfag1U4LQSj03zU2y2SlMfxqi8H7N4r0lOOtVJxZWqLRViLWOynNFFY-sbsOjTnRaZh1FPKoWFeRBPJ8uAO-jUAbbibCuTPxUq/s1600/iwm_aug11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj2OUWmbZt9s1F9J_h1uN3SASrNZZxXjScqGmvStTs_SPhlKsBvW2aFMZzY-j_NixQfpsJDV_CVpB-mNSGsnyfag1U4LQSj03zU2y2SlMfxqi8H7N4r0lOOtVJxZWqLRViLWOynNFFY-sbsOjTnRaZh1FPKoWFeRBPJ8uAO-jUAbbibCuTPxUq/s1600/iwm_aug11.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Nasdaq is pushing up against resitance in what is also looking like a pending breakout. The only downside is that 27K is still resistance, and there is a 'sell' in On-Balance-Volume.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvL_RVK9GG-9QkcGjn_7awigAaJADWKTUaaV2fcQsYEDm-Zt1Xuh-FfrNtXj-TrE_dGXUvYkueWMWGK9OYvbLFp5aUW9E_nDrstDcEEDDGUb-DFAAS1B4oVarBl4PTGVcoePtS6MOeyxfmUC3_7vF0XhEsMQLM4b75FMHrsSVQREqFn4g5UE33/s1600/compq_aug11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvL_RVK9GG-9QkcGjn_7awigAaJADWKTUaaV2fcQsYEDm-Zt1Xuh-FfrNtXj-TrE_dGXUvYkueWMWGK9OYvbLFp5aUW9E_nDrstDcEEDDGUb-DFAAS1B4oVarBl4PTGVcoePtS6MOeyxfmUC3_7vF0XhEsMQLM4b75FMHrsSVQREqFn4g5UE33/s1600/compq_aug11.png"/></a></div>
<p>The only disappointment was Bitcoin. While I continue to rate it a strong long term buy, the near term trade has failed to lift off. It remains bound by the 20-day MA and 65,535 resistance, and at today's closing price is an aggressive buy, but this may yet drift lower before it can mount a challenge on its 200-day MA. Technicals are mixed, with the MACD generating a new 'sell' signal.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg2oVMbhg5S9RIakOQc_HIdw29Vv3tmMFDVUHEPAVLnZerGH0jfda_cArjvpY1s7N3E_SvmJqB-DkeKSg3wcPSaKxbY4zhcsp3ijqgBuvvRC_ubFtFGM3EF3UDwj4LYm_mGXL_9A2UdZyhjV1p_4iHgH4QQYYNuVuHd4uCB64iNWUbo7glyqA2/s1600/btcuas_aug11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg2oVMbhg5S9RIakOQc_HIdw29Vv3tmMFDVUHEPAVLnZerGH0jfda_cArjvpY1s7N3E_SvmJqB-DkeKSg3wcPSaKxbY4zhcsp3ijqgBuvvRC_ubFtFGM3EF3UDwj4LYm_mGXL_9A2UdZyhjV1p_4iHgH4QQYYNuVuHd4uCB64iNWUbo7glyqA2/s1600/btcuas_aug11.png"/></a></div>
<p>For tomorrow, look to lead indices to break near-term resistance that has lasted the past 5 days. These are offering good risk:reward at today's close (assuming a fill at a similar price at the open) and may yet evolve into something bigger.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-40733390371730938322026-08-09T22:36:59.196+01:002026-08-09T22:36:59.196+01:00Bulls Take Friday's Finish As Breakouts Offer Excellent Risk:Reward Plays<p>It was a good close to the end of week. Bulls have set things up nicely for next week, to the point that even buying at the open might be worth a shot (assuming no major gap higher). The Russell 2000 ($IWM) offers good risk:reward using a stop on Thursday's lows.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjZe_M7EjWc2mYZxiJd1aFcfUqprVDizU6sERicqnHbDR2Up1-6f7kZfv_pI4XUOHwtY6ZthhFU6kIOm22qw5oi52DN2or0Q3gfBKTUqGM01JE7I2aKzACB6CwuZwZon-wrmdSq4sldXbdH6q7IqxJ-Zz66h7-txQMyT_tR_M7NIsmLk6IknqM/s1600/iwm_aug8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjZe_M7EjWc2mYZxiJd1aFcfUqprVDizU6sERicqnHbDR2Up1-6f7kZfv_pI4XUOHwtY6ZthhFU6kIOm22qw5oi52DN2or0Q3gfBKTUqGM01JE7I2aKzACB6CwuZwZon-wrmdSq4sldXbdH6q7IqxJ-Zz66h7-txQMyT_tR_M7NIsmLk6IknqM/s1600/iwm_aug8.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P has returned to challenging the inverse hammer with net bullish technicals. This is a good hold, particulary for those who bought the breakout retest at the end of July.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfHPuIRSo8wgwIYx7UWUonERvZWNFonhOtJjpnnw4Lm1s2fn5XUhgH-eV9DRkpxBx0AMnPwqugnZkBmfb-L4nwj_BbvxfGa67I3b0eBR_Hcu0KryRKVc4JBE8-l5mN-bxOSAnkVnAk9JQ0TSPakjDXHUQYBvRtkgFyZZ6QvaG9JiaTUoNIUSdC/s1600/spxew_aug8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfHPuIRSo8wgwIYx7UWUonERvZWNFonhOtJjpnnw4Lm1s2fn5XUhgH-eV9DRkpxBx0AMnPwqugnZkBmfb-L4nwj_BbvxfGa67I3b0eBR_Hcu0KryRKVc4JBE8-l5mN-bxOSAnkVnAk9JQ0TSPakjDXHUQYBvRtkgFyZZ6QvaG9JiaTUoNIUSdC/s1600/spxew_aug8.png"/></a></div>
<p>The S&P is another with a nice risk:reward play with measured risk off a loss of Thursday's lows. Technicals are net bullish and the index is no longer extended beyond its 200-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi41S3LXkGGih2W6Yf3JJ1aq8bySxOe-qTl1xh4JxsKo0UaRdZDikgQ7Gtpf6nXVYfwBCeLD2aESHOb5hgaUC5RkWXzKIC7H-J4fgubCvttA4kKLaRzQj9A-kA7EZ93tdKaXemXZPUPZly5pjjH65497hHD69OF2W0reabCFjQeVa3OaOPjU8jG/s1600/spx_aug8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi41S3LXkGGih2W6Yf3JJ1aq8bySxOe-qTl1xh4JxsKo0UaRdZDikgQ7Gtpf6nXVYfwBCeLD2aESHOb5hgaUC5RkWXzKIC7H-J4fgubCvttA4kKLaRzQj9A-kA7EZ93tdKaXemXZPUPZly5pjjH65497hHD69OF2W0reabCFjQeVa3OaOPjU8jG/s1600/spx_aug8.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Nasdaq also finished strong, but given the trading range it will take a little more to get out of this status quo.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhylhByr0LJTA58hxy2vamvfEipq-Ib8FhNeokCJHRUgVuz_r1wrwNYrzp6cjS1ENNjS7sHoSG0yKZeFiROSFP8xEu1u9Fb4OvYQilTzIrvKvqaQnCdkfUxdLAVvpVwO9CtpIPTjvmzDoB607vf4VCB62IFmwXRQ8DQOmGk_FUsv70IdU0ivbsJ/s1600/compq_aug9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhylhByr0LJTA58hxy2vamvfEipq-Ib8FhNeokCJHRUgVuz_r1wrwNYrzp6cjS1ENNjS7sHoSG0yKZeFiROSFP8xEu1u9Fb4OvYQilTzIrvKvqaQnCdkfUxdLAVvpVwO9CtpIPTjvmzDoB607vf4VCB62IFmwXRQ8DQOmGk_FUsv70IdU0ivbsJ/s1600/compq_aug9.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin is back in a net bullish state as it preps for a second run at 65,535. Technicals are net bullish and it feels like a test of the 200-day MA will come on the next push higher.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL9cqDHpakrJCyGOIq-SridfSvAL8W6e_ppK0gtgMZokz8S3vH8Elm6-R-ZgSzIv7FOGdjZ9EN2UFCFfusxCc4dMWDyEwzYPgpST2cEfgaqN2KS048WJu8pLizO21eVEBg0cwENBfv1ypaSozfbf4Gy3S1GgN5_tnhFANpkEC-SHLZFNVC4GSd/s1600/btcusd_aug9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL9cqDHpakrJCyGOIq-SridfSvAL8W6e_ppK0gtgMZokz8S3vH8Elm6-R-ZgSzIv7FOGdjZ9EN2UFCFfusxCc4dMWDyEwzYPgpST2cEfgaqN2KS048WJu8pLizO21eVEBg0cwENBfv1ypaSozfbf4Gy3S1GgN5_tnhFANpkEC-SHLZFNVC4GSd/s1600/btcusd_aug9.png"/></a></div>
<p>Things looking good for next week barring some unforseen Trump intervention. Risk:reward is very favorable and there is no overhead resistance.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-16254709063982019862026-08-06T22:51:53.435+01:002026-08-06T22:51:53.435+01:00Equal Weighted Nasdaq 100 Falls Back Inside Base<p>It came, it saw, it conquered, then retreated. The equal weighted Nasdaq 100 edged a breakout earlier in the week, but has returned inside its base following the selling of the past few days. I have redrawn resistance as a result. The index has switched to a 'sell' in On-Balance-Volume, but other indicators are still bullish.</p>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh8e1rjOaRt_PMIzT6Xlt6SEId8liYl26jcZCTWKMLoGFUu7Nx9-Flegw_7kpjt1NMDNA9yTeDeZjuryqWIKNJb6tkuGfLxaBfMSGzE1xrgYrUqgECfopYi7woDU2Wf2hsjN01NFFHbS8qfMHIukBiqWf9Avbsma-ZzN8pKvnRqv4j6W8_iqV6/s1600/qqew_aug6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh8e1rjOaRt_PMIzT6Xlt6SEId8liYl26jcZCTWKMLoGFUu7Nx9-Flegw_7kpjt1NMDNA9yTeDeZjuryqWIKNJb6tkuGfLxaBfMSGzE1xrgYrUqgECfopYi7woDU2Wf2hsjN01NFFHbS8qfMHIukBiqWf9Avbsma-ZzN8pKvnRqv4j6W8_iqV6/s1600/qqew_aug6.png"/></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has also dipped back into its base, but volume has been steadily falling the past few days as On-Balance-Volume trends lower. The 20-day and 50-day MA have been playing as support and the last convergence of these averages provided the catalyst for the breakout attempt and should offer support again if prices fall back to these levels again.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBqEEIfJKiBJDDRBzIsHhWcxV90_wLHVqlK1UVT48YOxQy0ljMNnUaMTBTalWgCXjbwh1BCUfX-1xpetxqR6AUeziKi7bbO2CKntbOmcjAoCEd5a803x2wrfdTAWYj7kOVfA8IIsKnbNUR1uPg-tezzgXxpfWMLIvYnN3lGWnI_w_V7eNC0wYH/s1600/iwm_aug6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBqEEIfJKiBJDDRBzIsHhWcxV90_wLHVqlK1UVT48YOxQy0ljMNnUaMTBTalWgCXjbwh1BCUfX-1xpetxqR6AUeziKi7bbO2CKntbOmcjAoCEd5a803x2wrfdTAWYj7kOVfA8IIsKnbNUR1uPg-tezzgXxpfWMLIvYnN3lGWnI_w_V7eNC0wYH/s1600/iwm_aug6.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The S&P hasn't fallen back into its prior base as it looks to give latecomers another bite of the cherry; anything in the low 7600s should be seen as attractive for longs. Technicals are net bullish.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrg39UTF-2tz8ptv9_jWE8TOa3Qr-PjBAGsGILM3t4X9OXyoutdPgchqKJx92SwbOUptL-J5_tATg3kspdciFObQyVQhvOpK2Nd-lCvb5UrKjC2LZrJ5zwv97tYaIhVW-UswcVODsgg1kr6B2W5A551jkSIRxqwhAExMImSwG7HRxRpCA-9NIl/s1600/spx_aug6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrg39UTF-2tz8ptv9_jWE8TOa3Qr-PjBAGsGILM3t4X9OXyoutdPgchqKJx92SwbOUptL-J5_tATg3kspdciFObQyVQhvOpK2Nd-lCvb5UrKjC2LZrJ5zwv97tYaIhVW-UswcVODsgg1kr6B2W5A551jkSIRxqwhAExMImSwG7HRxRpCA-9NIl/s1600/spx_aug6.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Nasdaq is caught in the middle of its trading range as On-Balance-Volume returns to a 'sell' signal. I wouldn't read too much into this index until it gets to either 25K or 27K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinL6eeokgzWCx5_63ehsd92S6kknWhUGowNeG5FsFqF2OYVPPSMw2unJJDk6y2RqBBT-anP9THrSzaNw3FP6WPwyyf5RWAUvd588zSi9AqZGQ5pQx46G-LewmFVLAsuhb4dnLZREjIAZah0ZLINOj3ivYO-OVQGTFwLNCOaJlPycDQw_8T59Pm/s1600/nas_aug6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinL6eeokgzWCx5_63ehsd92S6kknWhUGowNeG5FsFqF2OYVPPSMw2unJJDk6y2RqBBT-anP9THrSzaNw3FP6WPwyyf5RWAUvd588zSi9AqZGQ5pQx46G-LewmFVLAsuhb4dnLZREjIAZah0ZLINOj3ivYO-OVQGTFwLNCOaJlPycDQw_8T59Pm/s1600/nas_aug6.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin continues to knock around below 65K and it may require a retest of 57.5K before buyers get a second wind. Technicals are a bit of a mixed bag, but if it can make a strong run at 65K then there is a bit of room to get it to its 200-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG9tAz7EfUBGujf4ui1ey9N2trqutgvUDaehLXWSNdsgCG92yacwkBhGRbLSsmamhRtDoUeSFi05JezRJQCu2FaPYoIszxwrsQhBGBzaYRU62xKrQ6RFDXKxM7jnrNdAyGqVZJlcFRICx4R82hHgkiKGJGPNCIHjgl0dG_HeFCIdBfBFlt9xB4/s1600/btcusd_aug6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG9tAz7EfUBGujf4ui1ey9N2trqutgvUDaehLXWSNdsgCG92yacwkBhGRbLSsmamhRtDoUeSFi05JezRJQCu2FaPYoIszxwrsQhBGBzaYRU62xKrQ6RFDXKxM7jnrNdAyGqVZJlcFRICx4R82hHgkiKGJGPNCIHjgl0dG_HeFCIdBfBFlt9xB4/s1600/btcusd_aug6.png"/></a></div>
<p>Today's losses were in line with expectation after early week surges. Look for tests of breakout support and take advantage with long trades. Long term investors have Bitcoin as indices come back within range of their 200-day MAs (i.e. are no longer overbought).</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-90228902809857836782026-08-04T22:29:41.156+01:002026-08-04T22:29:41.156+01:00Breakouts in Equal Weighted Nasdaq 100 and S&P<p>There was good news across indices, but the big winners were the equal weighted Nasdaq 100 and S&P. The S&P posted a solid gain on modest volume. Technicals are net bullish, negating the 'bear flag' in the process. Interestingly, just as the S&P breaks from its summer consolidation, it starts to underperform relative to the Nasdaq.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh23iRQ7Fk8KLWg-S_rmZq9Mh9zqRTJg5l8ABGfcodzfg6kKvvqPceAq9e2w1EDtBiwqH7s838rXxohCSPYc9YoS9Sdip6My2Be5eDWnkBF5x_oBo-9AZBdGIpLDrLQKNv7cB2sbY0uqsqw_bx2DaAIDofW8ZqziD29Jk12tKpZTr3fyPFHcwSm/s1600/spx_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh23iRQ7Fk8KLWg-S_rmZq9Mh9zqRTJg5l8ABGfcodzfg6kKvvqPceAq9e2w1EDtBiwqH7s838rXxohCSPYc9YoS9Sdip6My2Be5eDWnkBF5x_oBo-9AZBdGIpLDrLQKNv7cB2sbY0uqsqw_bx2DaAIDofW8ZqziD29Jk12tKpZTr3fyPFHcwSm/s1600/spx_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The equal weighted Nasdaq 100 has managed to return to a net bulllish technical picture with a relative performance gain over the equal-weighted S&P. The index has met the measured move target of the May breakout, but there is a good chance it will do so here.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRnRp_v02KK9dBQ8kVBvL1XWLrhr6bJmOs01Hjat6ubqf1lZnYrZqb4QFiJas4A10nbZz7CUp95TrgoPazZlysH3HPfuSM_fnBnU-mbaNhTG-kuOoADvIIwzbx6LTbL8wDVYYfVUWbjOY9X0vcAjY10CvfQtNpzsygonvxpD3giXJGC9Q-8DHf/s1600/qqew_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRnRp_v02KK9dBQ8kVBvL1XWLrhr6bJmOs01Hjat6ubqf1lZnYrZqb4QFiJas4A10nbZz7CUp95TrgoPazZlysH3HPfuSM_fnBnU-mbaNhTG-kuOoADvIIwzbx6LTbL8wDVYYfVUWbjOY9X0vcAjY10CvfQtNpzsygonvxpD3giXJGC9Q-8DHf/s1600/qqew_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<p>The equal-weighted S&P had sucessfully defended breakout support, posting a secons gain to bring it to new all-ttime closing highs. Technicals have retained a net bullish picture. There is no overhead supply bar psychological resistance at 10K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigbMILcZ4ei0CmJ9Q7SHZ7GebYiGhe55XeaZQRZ9jK4SRKKCpm52k1OiarENudoJIxw-rVadQ8E9pPFmxxVwMWGXtzzPzFfpnqW2hvkQ65C9Hf0C9idEpEFMA2iaAwryIUWdusdVfz4pwuoJdgdvBsBxrFfeB2T3TbXIR-OuJtyQTP0uTOLXrv/s1600/spxew_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigbMILcZ4ei0CmJ9Q7SHZ7GebYiGhe55XeaZQRZ9jK4SRKKCpm52k1OiarENudoJIxw-rVadQ8E9pPFmxxVwMWGXtzzPzFfpnqW2hvkQ65C9Hf0C9idEpEFMA2iaAwryIUWdusdVfz4pwuoJdgdvBsBxrFfeB2T3TbXIR-OuJtyQTP0uTOLXrv/s1600/spxew_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) hasn't yet posted a new breakout, but it came very close to doing one today. As with other indices, it's afflicted with summer trading volume as technicals return net bullish.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgojKmaA3GT6KcH0KY2IbbE0NZqQ9XbXRqzfi-N90GDB47c6XwwNYFA8p1hJHZpSViAI_CFYwRY64HreH61qk4kd11pmKRCKBYgXLHcQ89Yr4MP6leFRSk9pLGletAHhPvLZWF6XCRJK7onTNFiShSRamxrXEs2D1k8E9ujJoHdAu0sEuWNZann/s1600/iwm_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgojKmaA3GT6KcH0KY2IbbE0NZqQ9XbXRqzfi-N90GDB47c6XwwNYFA8p1hJHZpSViAI_CFYwRY64HreH61qk4kd11pmKRCKBYgXLHcQ89Yr4MP6leFRSk9pLGletAHhPvLZWF6XCRJK7onTNFiShSRamxrXEs2D1k8E9ujJoHdAu0sEuWNZann/s1600/iwm_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin edged higher, but it was generally a low key day. I remain long term bullish on the cryptocurrency. Note, I haven't recorded a new (base) breakout for the asset.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRSUEQhCAk6PyjtPCyQdG10dAF8yk5lCcHjkkTGEOFO4XaDzxU5klziy6gj11G9yawhCOfXfPSV0m74nOn_rdLEYoLN9Ywe9A1SVMXZXVFrfL7PyRAglRCB7VyPWJb0XJVEnbMRycxt_RDEjmFaFMQAUt98IKSVphjJ1yJKuV9am3O6lY1sEhX/s1600/btcusd_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRSUEQhCAk6PyjtPCyQdG10dAF8yk5lCcHjkkTGEOFO4XaDzxU5klziy6gj11G9yawhCOfXfPSV0m74nOn_rdLEYoLN9Ywe9A1SVMXZXVFrfL7PyRAglRCB7VyPWJb0XJVEnbMRycxt_RDEjmFaFMQAUt98IKSVphjJ1yJKuV9am3O6lY1sEhX/s1600/btcusd_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<p>It has been a good start to the week for those who bought the counter move following the 'bear trap' in the Nasdaq. First profit target is May highs (resistance), but I would be looking for a follow through breakout after this test given action elsewhere.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhENVrpC3Era0ZIZKWjRQ7M1HxUe8bICE7X0Zt8E9Iwp25Ae3SFVxxNb49g8TlArbWz4BkuE8ijnJ5wAMoAyMHRq57937FqxUOLP8GWqJ2ucOZuuimFsOiN7zXgl7PBlbevKtc5-Rrc5WdiBgPN3EoUsPIS49E4wD6pdpguL3hxpndZVtvD5tMH/s1600/compq_aug4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhENVrpC3Era0ZIZKWjRQ7M1HxUe8bICE7X0Zt8E9Iwp25Ae3SFVxxNb49g8TlArbWz4BkuE8ijnJ5wAMoAyMHRq57937FqxUOLP8GWqJ2ucOZuuimFsOiN7zXgl7PBlbevKtc5-Rrc5WdiBgPN3EoUsPIS49E4wD6pdpguL3hxpndZVtvD5tMH/s1600/compq_aug4.png"/></a></div>
<p>For those indices that have marked new breakouts, watch for pullback retests of new support as a potential buy. Otherwise, Bitcoin remains the best buying opportunity.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-66761982808850264182026-08-02T23:12:35.618+01:002026-08-02T23:12:35.619+01:00Potential 'Bear Trap' in Nasdaq as Equal Weighted S&P Tests Breakout Support<p>Last week's winner was the equal-weighted S&P as it marked a clear breakout, but the index came back to breakout support (and stayed there) by Friday's close. The better news is the last two days have seen two doji/hammers with rebound support off the 20-day MA. Technicals have dropped out of a net bullish state with a MACD trigger 'sell'. It's a buying opportunity with a stop on a loss of Friday's low.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzGWMbzhH6cIvk470tAfKx2qxML4AQoqk5gF4QM4Okl4tnYvED6Bja5uO_YSjlMTeNmQIisSHE0tzDc0MoCwiiN6ikb9D0dHCi1vPH1I6KYYOdF2yGO0nsp2tk45QtHP1_veUrX6NMmv5F7BwejihuAosiKvbkieifOR8va3cmGZ0R7TJA-oNj/s1600/spx_ew_jul31.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzGWMbzhH6cIvk470tAfKx2qxML4AQoqk5gF4QM4Okl4tnYvED6Bja5uO_YSjlMTeNmQIisSHE0tzDc0MoCwiiN6ikb9D0dHCi1vPH1I6KYYOdF2yGO0nsp2tk45QtHP1_veUrX6NMmv5F7BwejihuAosiKvbkieifOR8va3cmGZ0R7TJA-oNj/s1600/spx_ew_jul31.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is trading around its 50-day MA in what is looking to be decent support. If there is a little red flag, it's that since the peak at $302 it has eased back on heavier distribution days with On-Balance-Volume trending down. This suggests the 50-day MA won't hold as support and there is a large chunk of space between the 50-day and 200-day MA. We have stochastics near the mid-line, which should be a rally point, but failing that, there is room to go before momemuntum becomes oversold.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiabKK-PayV6_Xtl5h3yROh_Ai0PTbFtwBXFPXBrOPmPENBIlviMBgZdXuaAEWh8w5CdnXftVh3zYbMqYnShigpiCDJS6Rbid8UuRKWOf1Mgrfvo149zRDv-a0Y4-8RFABgCcNXb7lQb_Sh_e2Og8sNONYwNhp9ubRTeJqHXznQFA5RoiVYTnaE/s1600/iwm_aug2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiabKK-PayV6_Xtl5h3yROh_Ai0PTbFtwBXFPXBrOPmPENBIlviMBgZdXuaAEWh8w5CdnXftVh3zYbMqYnShigpiCDJS6Rbid8UuRKWOf1Mgrfvo149zRDv-a0Y4-8RFABgCcNXb7lQb_Sh_e2Og8sNONYwNhp9ubRTeJqHXznQFA5RoiVYTnaE/s1600/iwm_aug2.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The S&P has rallied back from a 'bear flag' to take the index above its 20-day and 50-day MAs. Technicals remain mixed - mostly bearish - but there is a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. The broader reality is that this index has been range bound since May and a gain or loss on Monday is unlikely to change that.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHkqFaFcq5V0VlQ0AeZYuEwPzyLjuoOnUpPNZVXrK-Uo5u0sT__Xrsvf2k8_4NoflrwcFzG45j6WnakV2CqYoz7PgCgiuaAY6FVGbMN0aVBEKvlTtiy_TmxPkVqqLS8QpeGclAEexzPb72UH-vKG1X0Kv25z3AYJ64fDOReoreYN18Y71OhLK8/s1600/spx_aug2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHkqFaFcq5V0VlQ0AeZYuEwPzyLjuoOnUpPNZVXrK-Uo5u0sT__Xrsvf2k8_4NoflrwcFzG45j6WnakV2CqYoz7PgCgiuaAY6FVGbMN0aVBEKvlTtiy_TmxPkVqqLS8QpeGclAEexzPb72UH-vKG1X0Kv25z3AYJ64fDOReoreYN18Y71OhLK8/s1600/spx_aug2.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Nasdaq might be the best long trade on offer. It finished last week on a 'bear trap' with a decent opportunity for a move back to 27K. Friday's doji marked indecision just below its 20-day MA, but 25K is a natural support level to measure risk:reward off. Technicals are net bearish and have moved out of an oversold state.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRo7LKifhHeYnf7LaOiOnYXBmGX8tErSG9ccBEQjP6FgjalTObEMjVYGa6HZIQwigzQ2wNAJ0Gw64q6M8od3vBN-Xtg-g4cRVU7H32OyHtP2p5WsNfQMFmRy7dzh4_60YAety6onS1_tORRIKl0K1GNkLfz8iO0dGKVwsZCiQHG9hFQX5l9FrK/s1600/NAS_Aug8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRo7LKifhHeYnf7LaOiOnYXBmGX8tErSG9ccBEQjP6FgjalTObEMjVYGa6HZIQwigzQ2wNAJ0Gw64q6M8od3vBN-Xtg-g4cRVU7H32OyHtP2p5WsNfQMFmRy7dzh4_60YAety6onS1_tORRIKl0K1GNkLfz8iO0dGKVwsZCiQHG9hFQX5l9FrK/s1600/NAS_Aug8.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin has stayed at its *200-week MA* and after coming back from 125K last year, it's now time to see buyers make a larger move higher. Technicals are mostly bearish bar a weak 'buy' in the MACD (on the weekly time frame).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheO20Be0jtSkw2acpNMrNouHVArEst3nMF8WpHmAUoRZqCWIrHuCXNakENAReCVtSf-waiZiDwt-P31dS9ol0t4nSNnJwABZZkWeOpVIpL2IHu9c8RizOW-on_HOGK7fOyMjNkEOTm_FIxG7AMhE5kcqntEHM_1Xg-gj-fW1liVZzXhYBgjCnU/s1600/btcusd_aug2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheO20Be0jtSkw2acpNMrNouHVArEst3nMF8WpHmAUoRZqCWIrHuCXNakENAReCVtSf-waiZiDwt-P31dS9ol0t4nSNnJwABZZkWeOpVIpL2IHu9c8RizOW-on_HOGK7fOyMjNkEOTm_FIxG7AMhE5kcqntEHM_1Xg-gj-fW1liVZzXhYBgjCnU/s1600/btcusd_aug2.png"/></a></div>
<p>Semiconductors have been the story of the week but one only has to look at the monthly chart to see how much it can fall and still be considered bullish. The first bullish fib retracement doesn't kick in until sub-10K, and we are still a long way from that.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaxNQUs06_CqJPzw6BnltzG_PG1j58I9NTOMvwlhAhCQPhyicE4OBq15aZ302S86d_7KuQU-6un4pz_4T-bQwWmEjKKwVNXqQO2UMjCoUW9F9VGMffBkwTxVt2ez4rRORTzVwb5_HMEQ-RZWJFeRZlV6SY6m9NBpcbesdGHogkE6cxp2kbX_5o/s1600/sox_aug2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaxNQUs06_CqJPzw6BnltzG_PG1j58I9NTOMvwlhAhCQPhyicE4OBq15aZ302S86d_7KuQU-6un4pz_4T-bQwWmEjKKwVNXqQO2UMjCoUW9F9VGMffBkwTxVt2ez4rRORTzVwb5_HMEQ-RZWJFeRZlV6SY6m9NBpcbesdGHogkE6cxp2kbX_5o/s1600/sox_aug2.png"/></a></div>
<p>Keep an eye on the relationship between Consumer Discretionary and Staples. When this relationship head south it's typically bad news for markets, but we can see in 2011 that a comparable scenario eventually brought with it a multi-year rally. I have drawn in a support line for this relationship. I'm looking for a break of this line, a negative impact on markets, before offering a strong, long-term buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2DFrNIOFQti_lB9yYnTvgpjDdMiBXla_bIn1ZfdJRSB_2HvC44NeJPjkIJGcTYFWqQqSwVtFNV1nhlBQpx1VRLKXqdqf4v5hX1pyQEtPvnqUoTFl68vB-KqhhJbZPMxNe_rKtgDuet26P3QETHvwaHOEDW_DnOvjvzJ9U9rcrv8dmFboG7Kdo/s1600/xlyxlp_aug2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2DFrNIOFQti_lB9yYnTvgpjDdMiBXla_bIn1ZfdJRSB_2HvC44NeJPjkIJGcTYFWqQqSwVtFNV1nhlBQpx1VRLKXqdqf4v5hX1pyQEtPvnqUoTFl68vB-KqhhJbZPMxNe_rKtgDuet26P3QETHvwaHOEDW_DnOvjvzJ9U9rcrv8dmFboG7Kdo/s1600/xlyxlp_aug2.png"/></a></div>
<p>For the coming week, we want to see early bullish action to confirm support, with those indices already at support offering a direct buying opportunity.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-23991891733444630562026-07-29T00:29:39.961+01:002026-07-29T00:29:39.961+01:00Bitcoin Successfully Tests 50-day MA on Bullish Hammer<p>Bitcoin is holding to a bullish setup with a nice looking bullish hammer/doji on the 50-day MA. When we look at reversal candlesticks we want to see these occur when momentum is oversold; and in the case of a bullish trend, this oversold state occurs at the midline (50), not sub 20. Bitcoin had suffered heavy selling to bring it to July lows, and while action since then has been a little scrappy, I still like bullish trades, particularly long term (6 months+).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC0NidDRnnvXRxK5_THchQONCV9qJ_f8kvISGYpUXs7IGFP2nhM8CGGD8JlVrzfEe3LthyUHvqbzGcGMIEbyhGirKyorBEbVxgmduu6zXl7cNEUwjOjiTcjuWchrxDaqcg6pO377R0QIsKGsstrbKyDAeHP_Q9fj4XC4FmtqbIfJ1KKfWCUhCU/s1600/btcusd_jul28.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC0NidDRnnvXRxK5_THchQONCV9qJ_f8kvISGYpUXs7IGFP2nhM8CGGD8JlVrzfEe3LthyUHvqbzGcGMIEbyhGirKyorBEbVxgmduu6zXl7cNEUwjOjiTcjuWchrxDaqcg6pO377R0QIsKGsstrbKyDAeHP_Q9fj4XC4FmtqbIfJ1KKfWCUhCU/s1600/btcusd_jul28.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P broke to new highs in a decisive move. There was a new strong 'buy' trigger in the MACD (above the bullish zero line), with a sharp rise in relative performance over the weighted S&P.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBbve01IErlo2NQToiRmNEf8MjL35WKPjRknHrsPp__4qfDT9gaGue1UXzKfE4czJyJjhGjsEcyG8YjAcPiVEnLSnOmGSbBSwt3NSJIfWjKlHEiPItBHKEjarQ_0N8yk6ag0A12GaWZesAmXibrmQpYP54r0Tdj2gQiI7_im2NjgIvAqr1bzy9/s1600/spxew_Jul28.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBbve01IErlo2NQToiRmNEf8MjL35WKPjRknHrsPp__4qfDT9gaGue1UXzKfE4czJyJjhGjsEcyG8YjAcPiVEnLSnOmGSbBSwt3NSJIfWjKlHEiPItBHKEjarQ_0N8yk6ag0A12GaWZesAmXibrmQpYP54r0Tdj2gQiI7_im2NjgIvAqr1bzy9/s1600/spxew_Jul28.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>You wouldn't really have noticed the breakout in the parent S&P. Yes, there was a gain, but it's lost within the bounds of the May-July trading range. Also, there was no new MACD 'buy', although stochastics have moved below the critical 50 midline. There was a new 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume and relative performance has accelerated sharply from its Spring period of underperformance. The trade favors bulls despite the mixed technical picture.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFdYp104SUkKX35IFvJ5gVrHROsL4uM0iCuI8RXN2ZwVKc3h2rHENKAhsTIyIHOC7gafJOZ-L5SwDzcJ8mHdQY4nOYlPemabbyY1P3tWT9-tPbaNYXVkKKNM9qfgSXmywg2rCq7_GRyPhTXv_ypE_OIojJ6PLdfYuZvCFyJq2t48-krpkxSa0O/s1600/spx_jul29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFdYp104SUkKX35IFvJ5gVrHROsL4uM0iCuI8RXN2ZwVKc3h2rHENKAhsTIyIHOC7gafJOZ-L5SwDzcJ8mHdQY4nOYlPemabbyY1P3tWT9-tPbaNYXVkKKNM9qfgSXmywg2rCq7_GRyPhTXv_ypE_OIojJ6PLdfYuZvCFyJq2t48-krpkxSa0O/s1600/spx_jul29.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) spent a fourth day at its 50-day MA. It closed with a small doji on the moving average, with short term stochastics just above an oversold state. Other technicals are bearish, but the index is outperforming the Nasdaq. Here too is a buyers trade.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBIOdPAMNZNNOsO7buwiYaP0mt_6PNpzGda-xF5YNNsotpx__la64OAvSMLH1vt3I3ki4dPaR4cUn6NVM4DZfLTA3tZfVL2DJi5bUX9b7kH39dXntvd7JCv-lA-CmHGJhitzYxQxak5D4r3XmtJxvckU5FsgCKpoiEe8PgABNgaDivCmZi46KN/s1600/iwm_jul29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBIOdPAMNZNNOsO7buwiYaP0mt_6PNpzGda-xF5YNNsotpx__la64OAvSMLH1vt3I3ki4dPaR4cUn6NVM4DZfLTA3tZfVL2DJi5bUX9b7kH39dXntvd7JCv-lA-CmHGJhitzYxQxak5D4r3XmtJxvckU5FsgCKpoiEe8PgABNgaDivCmZi46KN/s1600/iwm_jul29.png"/></a></div>
<p>THe Nasdaq has dropped below 25K support with a small doji, marked with higher volume distribution. Other technicals are bearish. If this is to be a bullish signal (and therefore a bear trap), then buyers need to step in tomorrow to take this above 25K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJMJm3jJBugptVbDzXm-wNzzpA4ceBCKmNklzfIxb9wtG9xGy4RviXlmS-KHpPl39JP6YsmPh__t7G5AWNs4jmoVsZzbORRCjubLrEX_kPkZ2nGb55IWsFwtOPwHIMSPBRtr47hMNy0D_19rOqaBtfGJ4jpZRZjX57Xo0Yq1qW8ESsgN0AmtuU/s1600/nas_jul29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJMJm3jJBugptVbDzXm-wNzzpA4ceBCKmNklzfIxb9wtG9xGy4RviXlmS-KHpPl39JP6YsmPh__t7G5AWNs4jmoVsZzbORRCjubLrEX_kPkZ2nGb55IWsFwtOPwHIMSPBRtr47hMNy0D_19rOqaBtfGJ4jpZRZjX57Xo0Yq1qW8ESsgN0AmtuU/s1600/nas_jul29.png"/></a></div>
<p>We still have bullish setups across indices across Bitcoin, equal-weighted S&P, and Russell 2000. News has focused on Semiconductors, but Fib retracements show we haven't even reached the first support level. Expect further losses, but these losses remain in line with a bullish setup.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMvpPoU9CeHwmG7cGdpc9mV1uDLUQJw0_HMLZE08A4syP4RKla-WGA9vmOjDX4wEQdqU2SuNix3J5gm2ifiBDQ1rT52xhl2S9XqfgMA7miRLAhpdyRkR3nNLNj2YxCdtn0uAWhYDFD3bjKJozc1EHReDH182KJIWqdmb7jPshKwxDVuARoZMct/s1600/sox_jul29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMvpPoU9CeHwmG7cGdpc9mV1uDLUQJw0_HMLZE08A4syP4RKla-WGA9vmOjDX4wEQdqU2SuNix3J5gm2ifiBDQ1rT52xhl2S9XqfgMA7miRLAhpdyRkR3nNLNj2YxCdtn0uAWhYDFD3bjKJozc1EHReDH182KJIWqdmb7jPshKwxDVuARoZMct/s1600/sox_jul29.png"/></a></div>
<p>For now, indices stick with bullish setups.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-71651340859245811932026-07-26T23:12:22.113+01:002026-07-26T23:12:22.113+01:00Scrappy Support Holds For Indices As Bitcoin Trades Near 50-day MA<p>Summer trading dominates as indices trade near support levels while Bitcoin comes back off June highs.</p>
<p>The equal weighted S&P recovered 8,600, returning its outperformance to the weighted S&P, a better scenario for the long term health of the S&P (weighted or unweighted). The recovery was enough for it to poke its head above its 20-day MA. The MACD continues to decline from its weak MACD trigger 'sell' but a couple more up days may be enough to see a new, strong 'buy' signal. Aggressive buyers could look to get in here to pre-empt this signal; a stop goes on a loss of 8,560.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlGTE5_gd9ABqSk4jP_z2fqnRRZnpTYw0xDj3R7TP9BuXAAxDj-3VnQKSa0OtkwoBQ_dTqKTILCV3SezCmG-2qeSzQMWFZLCfGXM6D17v3ZC1G6o5VuEXDICyu6aogEA90ZwU95hnRZHVxbLou5_5hgfQG2RRdpcfrfW5el5QoJQ53QMOIIg7B/s1600/spxew_jul26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlGTE5_gd9ABqSk4jP_z2fqnRRZnpTYw0xDj3R7TP9BuXAAxDj-3VnQKSa0OtkwoBQ_dTqKTILCV3SezCmG-2qeSzQMWFZLCfGXM6D17v3ZC1G6o5VuEXDICyu6aogEA90ZwU95hnRZHVxbLou5_5hgfQG2RRdpcfrfW5el5QoJQ53QMOIIg7B/s1600/spxew_jul26.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The S&P posted a second doji in a row following a gap down from a 'bear flag'. Given action in the equal-weighted S&P there is a reasonable change for gap higher and a move back to 7,600; look to premarket for leads. The index is increasing its outperformance relative to the Nasdaq.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguIqH6ABQVOzyjfdl65cBH4Xm3ho2Yyq4k5bx_2Rmm6D5MRJttp3GZ2mQuhnN2hPUeS6QJ7rnSVMoYcs4d_g6yx9bxHTM2Z1mTnp8cXu_d1g3U2rNNBt8yOQ3pHWUl_gGqgTsg4s6rBXFvF634LUqIjQJzbsGpLhZQid7QGKu4c1jT2Gh_hF7t/s1600/spx_jul16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguIqH6ABQVOzyjfdl65cBH4Xm3ho2Yyq4k5bx_2Rmm6D5MRJttp3GZ2mQuhnN2hPUeS6QJ7rnSVMoYcs4d_g6yx9bxHTM2Z1mTnp8cXu_d1g3U2rNNBt8yOQ3pHWUl_gGqgTsg4s6rBXFvF634LUqIjQJzbsGpLhZQid7QGKu4c1jT2Gh_hF7t/s1600/spx_jul16.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Nasdaq struggled to get above its 50-day MA and is currently trading below its 20-day MA. It now finds itself back at $25K psychological support (also a double wing low in June) in what looks like a larger move towards its 200-day MA (as triple bottoms are rare), but if you want an aggressive buy, then there is one from Friday's close.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0aBGK3TD9eUK3s1gr32gulKYECn7am4yo__I-xN3FV9U3Ieh9ZeDYk980vqVNZsz8yAun5LTW_rC0IvIo6zEDu2_j7yQb54rW6dX7Uwev9Rp1Xcaauc7kR3sda0d4ztxTGul7H_oUBWJY7VtrmZ9Sk93EqQ3tJnai_KQMj9aMNRIcOuROcie7/s1600/NAS_Jul26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0aBGK3TD9eUK3s1gr32gulKYECn7am4yo__I-xN3FV9U3Ieh9ZeDYk980vqVNZsz8yAun5LTW_rC0IvIo6zEDu2_j7yQb54rW6dX7Uwev9Rp1Xcaauc7kR3sda0d4ztxTGul7H_oUBWJY7VtrmZ9Sk93EqQ3tJnai_KQMj9aMNRIcOuROcie7/s1600/NAS_Jul26.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has been the relative outperformer to the Nasdaq and S&P over the course of the summer, but it has been drifting lower since the June peak. It's testing the 50-day MA after weeks of declines. There is a buying opportunity as declines have been modest. If we see buying action in the Nasdaq and S&P, then there is a good chance for a carryover trade in the Russell 2000 with stops on a loss of the 50-day MA.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB2G-bAg5kBPpG73TWJbtYykUuaejSHGvUOgQpGiFiHertAP1VFBZAT8KV8Wk7mEagw7Q25bfaKzbLniPPj411Dr2yLlDn2TiduNWrkJCNAZDA6s2rCGZAUokultN1tEjjR9TdAoAx4pz4VnAbIqsLjXws-onf4g2vLI4e3qbLxQimUuKAOs4W/s1600/iwm_jul26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB2G-bAg5kBPpG73TWJbtYykUuaejSHGvUOgQpGiFiHertAP1VFBZAT8KV8Wk7mEagw7Q25bfaKzbLniPPj411Dr2yLlDn2TiduNWrkJCNAZDA6s2rCGZAUokultN1tEjjR9TdAoAx4pz4VnAbIqsLjXws-onf4g2vLI4e3qbLxQimUuKAOs4W/s1600/iwm_jul26.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin may take a little longer to get its right-hand-base to take shape. It rejected its first move to get past 67K but with the 200-day MA coming back to current price it will add another incentive to get buyers to jump in again. Technicals are net positive and momentum has only just dropped out of an overbought state. This is long term bullish despite the extended weakness that brought the cryptocurrency to this point.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8gw2V2AxYZaxRzgo8Bq5ojqFxrRckG2sfs8M3rcc_UbDit5ki64HNFkHW7Lwl8ZgZ77s9CqzhLpEDkNspR9gsjewTbtNgFsdxZN2h7J41cTA_m5101MB2g4d5_ukRVYvUvZ1vn5w0MYdpmCHOCHk_FNESz0mxRooua1IZk-P0PeoKSDA9NR2w/s1600/btcusd_jul26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8gw2V2AxYZaxRzgo8Bq5ojqFxrRckG2sfs8M3rcc_UbDit5ki64HNFkHW7Lwl8ZgZ77s9CqzhLpEDkNspR9gsjewTbtNgFsdxZN2h7J41cTA_m5101MB2g4d5_ukRVYvUvZ1vn5w0MYdpmCHOCHk_FNESz0mxRooua1IZk-P0PeoKSDA9NR2w/s1600/btcusd_jul26.png"/></a></div>
<p>We haven't seen an extended period of buying since April, but we should be seing another period soon and tomorrow offers buying incentives for those willing to take them (and manage their risk).</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-3027058788029106782026-07-22T23:06:20.155+01:002026-07-22T23:06:20.156+01:00Market Drift Continues as Equal Weighted S&P Breaks Bull Trend<p>The only index to mark any change was the break down in the equal-weighted S&P as it dropped out of its bullish trend into a trading range. If this is a trading range, then it finished at the first of a possible support level. If this breaks from here, then next support is the 50-day MA. Technicals are mixed with a weak 'sell' trigger on a trendless ADX, and momentum that has fallen out of an overbought state. Next target is the 50-day MA.</p>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9MfeDSM124kosKDqKZ5pZJ8PadSsUOmy694_9j-dCpKzaExkprbx1pA14ovCkl7RKt2L4D3wB__-qEx_8-7dp3Qye1RZO0GFhxlEwWAHCAijM0NZxjynJPd8iXmSAnMSgiFDy5v9eOGoiInOJWQLtvlQvEQpl0g7WZPmHImnUDHOtZVV_fmol/s1600/spxew_jul22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9MfeDSM124kosKDqKZ5pZJ8PadSsUOmy694_9j-dCpKzaExkprbx1pA14ovCkl7RKt2L4D3wB__-qEx_8-7dp3Qye1RZO0GFhxlEwWAHCAijM0NZxjynJPd8iXmSAnMSgiFDy5v9eOGoiInOJWQLtvlQvEQpl0g7WZPmHImnUDHOtZVV_fmol/s1600/spxew_jul22.png"/></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has been slow-and-steady in its decline;alternating between gains and losses. The index is close to its 50-day MA but I would perhaps wait for a test of the mid-line stochastic (50 line) before the next buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSYC2bjCgmGsHZFFKXnkmCB2TNVMAF9kpU1LfpKo_HggFtjp03bIoD8DoMA25wNOUsJRYOlJHAIPt0zTtsX4F0kQeYzZKPf5LO8TvCXopXEwmf2M95J9MLP_638BEgfFJ4xzBPQvdykjFu_CSgqqrgZkL-LTyoLt2Vdr4S4n4sF86S2vVxgM49/s1600/iwm_jul22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSYC2bjCgmGsHZFFKXnkmCB2TNVMAF9kpU1LfpKo_HggFtjp03bIoD8DoMA25wNOUsJRYOlJHAIPt0zTtsX4F0kQeYzZKPf5LO8TvCXopXEwmf2M95J9MLP_638BEgfFJ4xzBPQvdykjFu_CSgqqrgZkL-LTyoLt2Vdr4S4n4sF86S2vVxgM49/s1600/iwm_jul22.png"/></a></div>
<p>The 'bear flag' in the S&P is the result of a gap down, but it's a weak signal as the trading range with support at 7,250 is the dominant pattern.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDVhcp46H4nAntnNjesvgg9B7iuzkf-ie6_fpBaR-wRxY5YKbpJp6IKqSlzVKsbtDdl6Pi6wc2v_uJRbXlhA0dGf6vDss728Oap8_7dI2zUAPRfv9w0Sp4wXk6GHnYigHUlj1oGk7N9ZfA7Q4q1E8_-YamHkJcL4eYjBUi5E2l7HvD1ZxUNHcl/s1600/spx_jul22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDVhcp46H4nAntnNjesvgg9B7iuzkf-ie6_fpBaR-wRxY5YKbpJp6IKqSlzVKsbtDdl6Pi6wc2v_uJRbXlhA0dGf6vDss728Oap8_7dI2zUAPRfv9w0Sp4wXk6GHnYigHUlj1oGk7N9ZfA7Q4q1E8_-YamHkJcL4eYjBUi5E2l7HvD1ZxUNHcl/s1600/spx_jul22.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>It was similar case for the Nasdaq as for the S&P. It gapped down with its own 'bear flag', although it's trading closer to 25K support. The 200-day MA is next support if 25K support fails.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8UIcKGOdMGpVCJNK1W5i8PNkPnhXFEqoG31vN1QC7oGwVd7j5sJ8u7UQ9FhX1YWoCi_D6DOV_mq-EE9LZeugVHYEQct9loupoyPOygNBWn20nNr7RYcs_Hyn9ct8HDnCfeAhKp-9v-5WhkAi5cZYOAZ0NKjQQ0yH9YFMP1Rj-s3SJOZbqBM1D/s1600/nas_jul22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8UIcKGOdMGpVCJNK1W5i8PNkPnhXFEqoG31vN1QC7oGwVd7j5sJ8u7UQ9FhX1YWoCi_D6DOV_mq-EE9LZeugVHYEQct9loupoyPOygNBWn20nNr7RYcs_Hyn9ct8HDnCfeAhKp-9v-5WhkAi5cZYOAZ0NKjQQ0yH9YFMP1Rj-s3SJOZbqBM1D/s1600/nas_jul22.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin is back challenging the June swing high, and has support at 65,535 to hold. The cryptocurrency remains on course to shape the right-hand-base, but there is no rush.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPlgCz5QxlIboQJywtmRhrzyh24DbE19dRRSeLkEHOr2dASWqEElC3oRd_otsISjMa27ayTlnRdlf9V-4OcHyVQJc9ufwARhptumZqO_X1kuKKlHkfl-3kuHMHecBynkIAPj9aVPWW8tOA2A9xIQix3K7TyaYjCc0AZtVKQfshXH57htk0Q5JD/s1600/btcusd_jul22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPlgCz5QxlIboQJywtmRhrzyh24DbE19dRRSeLkEHOr2dASWqEElC3oRd_otsISjMa27ayTlnRdlf9V-4OcHyVQJc9ufwARhptumZqO_X1kuKKlHkfl-3kuHMHecBynkIAPj9aVPWW8tOA2A9xIQix3K7TyaYjCc0AZtVKQfshXH57htk0Q5JD/s1600/btcusd_jul22.png"/></a></div>
<p>Assuming markets continue their current non-trend, then look for buys at support, first of which may be an aggressive 'buy' in the equal weighted S&P despite the early week trend break.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-63109855598958035932026-07-19T21:53:59.757+01:002026-07-19T21:53:59.758+01:00Markets Drifting Lower<p>Sellers took Friday's laurels with sizable enough gap downs for the S&P and Nasdaq. I consider both of these markets to be range bound, so the gaps are not as bearish as they might otherwise be had they occurred from a break of trend.</p>
<p>The Nasdaq is under the most pressure as Friday's gap down has taken the index closest to support defined by the June swing lows. Even if this support is lost, there will be another level to aim for down at the 200-day MA currently at 23,877. Technicals are net bearish, with momentum not oversold. This means further selling can be exspected, but we don't have any crash conditions despite the bearishness of other indicators. One to watch.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLgGzyjrD8ti7F2baMNeq1eiDfQlewHnnGvvTFQvsoX9Xjb1vQO7Q2Ce6TH6LbKfp7aS33SN-xWLOSjtEVWHDmRoORvKl9nvAm2X2Ji-wNap_0I6hpnKlhexItzWCAc0LnJ4xm3YLWf5WuwwClZHPkzdq8RIUQkPEoDhyTloECGXdu9QS3rswc/s1600/compq_jul19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLgGzyjrD8ti7F2baMNeq1eiDfQlewHnnGvvTFQvsoX9Xjb1vQO7Q2Ce6TH6LbKfp7aS33SN-xWLOSjtEVWHDmRoORvKl9nvAm2X2Ji-wNap_0I6hpnKlhexItzWCAc0LnJ4xm3YLWf5WuwwClZHPkzdq8RIUQkPEoDhyTloECGXdu9QS3rswc/s1600/compq_jul19.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The S&P finished Friday just under its 50-day MA and while it experienced the gap down, it's not as bearish as the Nasdaq. Technicals are also more mixed. The June swing low is the target, but if it can stage an early recovery this week then this gap down will become an afterthought.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIKaVFX-Z9ZiVHC3-KR5XQsJo6v9oe7eHbc7k2l3oulCqRbEzmRZuTlEy36b4AdjoErI8wy75-4rXcdbF1zg9GgRLCxWI4sgqieydlUaMuP8y-7dhybvUqbiVBPMzO6yUwHv-K4joAyneHUPyipBAEc-fUk9h3J6sW_cxFXtaJo1ja0IeVAFAL/s1600/spx_jul19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIKaVFX-Z9ZiVHC3-KR5XQsJo6v9oe7eHbc7k2l3oulCqRbEzmRZuTlEy36b4AdjoErI8wy75-4rXcdbF1zg9GgRLCxWI4sgqieydlUaMuP8y-7dhybvUqbiVBPMzO6yUwHv-K4joAyneHUPyipBAEc-fUk9h3J6sW_cxFXtaJo1ja0IeVAFAL/s1600/spx_jul19.png"/></a></div>
<p>The equal-weighted S&P is trading at trendline support in a to-and-fro battle at support. A short trade would likely require the undercut of 8,570. Longs need an end-of-day close above 8,700, but this might be hard given action in the weighted S&P.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTRaj0R7rwHL9vR7mo6NsGwLn5aVuIpQwAqQ-i1jRDJUrYKF5PDby1UwdtdaVDNcROjQNOJZa_brtHfjr2D7opZuPbFVCVettFpaK6BF52oUBfbgAa63MQzt2LIq8wEalqOexMNa1yOQajPKLqjzyfOmYNIhXoJ1mm65Y5wqEv-FrQQ-P3ndCV/s1600/spxew_jul19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTRaj0R7rwHL9vR7mo6NsGwLn5aVuIpQwAqQ-i1jRDJUrYKF5PDby1UwdtdaVDNcROjQNOJZa_brtHfjr2D7opZuPbFVCVettFpaK6BF52oUBfbgAa63MQzt2LIq8wEalqOexMNa1yOQajPKLqjzyfOmYNIhXoJ1mm65Y5wqEv-FrQQ-P3ndCV/s1600/spxew_jul19.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) booked its own loss, but not enough to challenge the 50-day MA. This is the index best positioned to book a gain, and maybe manage a new closing all-time high over the coming week or two. Technicals are mostly bearish, although momentum has only dropped out of an overbought state, marking favorable bullish conditions.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcvlI5evI2CKjxVwX7nph8w3VDFU9nsJDqyj57QZX67qH-AGb8Nn33dkKVlwLNR4aLHVrc6QuPGFcTsJ6LsppHbMjap62hvUEaAgfSjvhhdMx17Ardz1KcG22Rr-bS3FhxdAxGWl9GjMQIa90W0Sw5KixLpiAYo62Ezo1s01dXHNTcwga_bGrw/s1600/iwm_jul19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcvlI5evI2CKjxVwX7nph8w3VDFU9nsJDqyj57QZX67qH-AGb8Nn33dkKVlwLNR4aLHVrc6QuPGFcTsJ6LsppHbMjap62hvUEaAgfSjvhhdMx17Ardz1KcG22Rr-bS3FhxdAxGWl9GjMQIa90W0Sw5KixLpiAYo62Ezo1s01dXHNTcwga_bGrw/s1600/iwm_jul19.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin still looks to favor bulls, although it hasn't been a clean rally off the 57,500 test. Technicals are net bullish and its trading above its 50-day MA. It's probably the best near and long term trade at the moment.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8RyPPfsDaJE4_SpSKSzJ3uPTdveaXNEuouhPZBk_3QZ0jWsGWtioTxDybdyG_8mo50RB3kdMeUhKhYaRfYOti-NhfWq9YHqZcYXIIj7b7qYs_tdgaKLTK-6HguwTn31f0mAwHi7iGArrkUmj0pZ8KxY2VFIjQnlxROrWQJ_FqOaIxy2wroW1o/s1600/btcusd_jul19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8RyPPfsDaJE4_SpSKSzJ3uPTdveaXNEuouhPZBk_3QZ0jWsGWtioTxDybdyG_8mo50RB3kdMeUhKhYaRfYOti-NhfWq9YHqZcYXIIj7b7qYs_tdgaKLTK-6HguwTn31f0mAwHi7iGArrkUmj0pZ8KxY2VFIjQnlxROrWQJ_FqOaIxy2wroW1o/s1600/btcusd_jul19.png"/></a></div>
<p>One thing that's shifting into a more bearish alignment are Nasdaq breadth metrics. The Percentage of Stocks above 50-day MA, 200-day MA and Bullish Percents are net bearish. These are fairly reliable reversal markers, so an extended period of selling (and take profits/short trade)is likely coming.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmxdM_wbHaWsRwCB55Z-9LEChxysWfMyp4ihgjPf-tU5tPMoEeElzSa7b6DaVHGfGFmP3pUTxFC8x3A3SuxicDtiMCUUu1wk5LOfUNvRtmOmko5_S3YoqfBPMVsBIke80iYhUXdzclsxXhe-AqgPIdtpRdix5odaP9iBT3OX1Lc8S5GL7a7Y6y/s1600/naa50r_jul19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmxdM_wbHaWsRwCB55Z-9LEChxysWfMyp4ihgjPf-tU5tPMoEeElzSa7b6DaVHGfGFmP3pUTxFC8x3A3SuxicDtiMCUUu1wk5LOfUNvRtmOmko5_S3YoqfBPMVsBIke80iYhUXdzclsxXhe-AqgPIdtpRdix5odaP9iBT3OX1Lc8S5GL7a7Y6y/s1600/naa50r_jul19.png"/></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQpQUNcgI1T0KS3pQWd7u2yvK2VqZay-yd1ArVGnltgRpI0kQERokFzX1TccFvyXOzA42f3fpJmEPa5Sm2Nm4Ueqb6jNRm0FzD63D8sXDqRXwg6yia6MePjoSRh7Vzf1Ok9INc3WG1OwhI4DmEPJaZGNnLSzFFPvRuRABO8yTrym-WnjjhqcVS/s1600/bpcompq_jul19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQpQUNcgI1T0KS3pQWd7u2yvK2VqZay-yd1ArVGnltgRpI0kQERokFzX1TccFvyXOzA42f3fpJmEPa5Sm2Nm4Ueqb6jNRm0FzD63D8sXDqRXwg6yia6MePjoSRh7Vzf1Ok9INc3WG1OwhI4DmEPJaZGNnLSzFFPvRuRABO8yTrym-WnjjhqcVS/s1600/bpcompq_jul19.png"/></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM3YccSqbo4rpnkSEp5RlGfebzxJgHr4kdyIOTzIlelTHwf1oGCKsOLhmOvPPkCf-P6TbGbfG7hSx4g4RMy77nSrLmGUywWBrPLwzeGtJaCP145gV7UH_wB9S_rCACqwOGsS3VQnelDGpDCs3uTgiwIzbvmxnfb4Xi58E97JaDbnP4Qj8SjSmZ/s1600/nasi_jul19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM3YccSqbo4rpnkSEp5RlGfebzxJgHr4kdyIOTzIlelTHwf1oGCKsOLhmOvPPkCf-P6TbGbfG7hSx4g4RMy77nSrLmGUywWBrPLwzeGtJaCP145gV7UH_wB9S_rCACqwOGsS3VQnelDGpDCs3uTgiwIzbvmxnfb4Xi58E97JaDbnP4Qj8SjSmZ/s1600/nasi_jul19.png"/></a></div>
<p>It's hard to read too much into summer trading. Trump's action in Iran will cloud the picture, but it has become background noise to the big picture. Bears may be able to push things lower, but I can't see the Spring swing lows getting challenged and 200-day MAs are looking the most likely downside targets.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-80526658758296554342026-07-15T11:57:39.763+01:002026-07-15T11:57:39.764+01:00Bitcoin Breaks Through 50-day MA<p>Not a whole lot to add from the weekend. After yesterday's action I had thought bears had regained control after previously mentioning how the index had overcome the prior bearish markers.</p>
<p>Bitcoin pushed through the 50-day MA on lighter volume, but with the counter move against yesterday's selling it now opens up for a move to the 200-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5jXdbytGPxFbXwJw04pOyowq_Uu16lIxn6xnKAbmRl4wmUdhmzqE5tmJ_uF2IDQ6l3XbN0EVKSrEyUquZD-608IdDArGBNhRo1vtoYuZZeL6OK2a6bcqti-AGP2ItxlA3kFpLLg4bH52WD4ksIz54na94Uk86vUSBRMFypzMJ48o86HiB_8pD/s1600/btcusd_jul14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5jXdbytGPxFbXwJw04pOyowq_Uu16lIxn6xnKAbmRl4wmUdhmzqE5tmJ_uF2IDQ6l3XbN0EVKSrEyUquZD-608IdDArGBNhRo1vtoYuZZeL6OK2a6bcqti-AGP2ItxlA3kFpLLg4bH52WD4ksIz54na94Uk86vUSBRMFypzMJ48o86HiB_8pD/s1600/btcusd_jul14.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The pattern breakout in the S&P continues to hold and remains favored to push higher.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFDcxyy8hsQa5XB5nQIeSqt1DjlGekg6GmqoPUwMtBnXSSaz1sDtIcXamhBxsd3Ok6tmp7c45d94NXlk5vGoFvVdCPKIxKIQc6js4Ett5Y902H3UiSaFMql-v6ceXgsHPtA8t7ZU4A0rn-CtIsO2GY7xAs0yu9x7LI02SgK6hbm79VQ_DifOZL/s1600/spx_jul15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFDcxyy8hsQa5XB5nQIeSqt1DjlGekg6GmqoPUwMtBnXSSaz1sDtIcXamhBxsd3Ok6tmp7c45d94NXlk5vGoFvVdCPKIxKIQc6js4Ett5Y902H3UiSaFMql-v6ceXgsHPtA8t7ZU4A0rn-CtIsO2GY7xAs0yu9x7LI02SgK6hbm79VQ_DifOZL/s1600/spx_jul15.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>It's a similar situation for the Nasdaq; look for the breakout to continue higher.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkN5daTCUjK-vu37RnnG4DGb8QRolLhuqvg58oThN5dS3azQ-FKdOsnPjEVR9x0xrIb8DN-iSTfu7wqyz-GsIvhX_4i4VPO7bdGC5m36GT65iXp3qYCL0dSG64QBj-BnKr0q_j_L0wFdezM5y8hIeAI8bjtSexJjt1LJIdjt7SXr2UcEm1o3Nb/s1600/compq_jul15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkN5daTCUjK-vu37RnnG4DGb8QRolLhuqvg58oThN5dS3azQ-FKdOsnPjEVR9x0xrIb8DN-iSTfu7wqyz-GsIvhX_4i4VPO7bdGC5m36GT65iXp3qYCL0dSG64QBj-BnKr0q_j_L0wFdezM5y8hIeAI8bjtSexJjt1LJIdjt7SXr2UcEm1o3Nb/s1600/compq_jul15.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains range bound, just drifting below its 20-day MA. It will probably drift down to its 50-day MA before it attracts buyers. The trend is higher, even if the rate of ascent has slowed and trading volume falls.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgBIXXSGDXU12xLRTf7LZX9E5DabPDpBcQR4Qad9FPMxVDPf5v10qL-3lKn8Zi0stg8-zF2h-0E0qWUwhfDV1GlGQ7uda25kZa4fT9PqKBQtNnX9MnUodEb4KujAmATxBgR5OHdRuuc0Zb4nKVAPaIclcvWGBR3jxDcht1W0hF02Gj39yjl8u2/s1600/iwm_jul15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgBIXXSGDXU12xLRTf7LZX9E5DabPDpBcQR4Qad9FPMxVDPf5v10qL-3lKn8Zi0stg8-zF2h-0E0qWUwhfDV1GlGQ7uda25kZa4fT9PqKBQtNnX9MnUodEb4KujAmATxBgR5OHdRuuc0Zb4nKVAPaIclcvWGBR3jxDcht1W0hF02Gj39yjl8u2/s1600/iwm_jul15.png"/></a></div>
<p>The equal-weighted S&P is running against channel support and is looking like it wants to break lower. If this happens, it will risk the upsdie breakout in the weighted S&P. Let's see what happens. A break of the trendline here would offer a shorting opportunity (a spread trade between the weighted/equal-weighted S&P?).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh57xW-XoIWZtmRDN47yfm1EwX6JWCZVx-y0SW5h3r0sd4VMiM8bpWLVRoh1RcNkhr66aOZ2stOSDMm3HOBc95Mt-C44Zp_mVbq9lUWFG1Jemf71Nxd_gNv_v6WVW_1lc2pYCk7NoWSrL0FTMN_pA-bFAj0a2qlEfQq_nP6gI2HArFhL-JO85Y1/s1600/spxew_jul15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh57xW-XoIWZtmRDN47yfm1EwX6JWCZVx-y0SW5h3r0sd4VMiM8bpWLVRoh1RcNkhr66aOZ2stOSDMm3HOBc95Mt-C44Zp_mVbq9lUWFG1Jemf71Nxd_gNv_v6WVW_1lc2pYCk7NoWSrL0FTMN_pA-bFAj0a2qlEfQq_nP6gI2HArFhL-JO85Y1/s1600/spxew_jul15.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin is holding on to its 50-day MA. It may linger there before it starts shaping a new right-hand-side base.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdURUoe591rZpoWveV1LRn5hYfxNGRs5ufODBgzrZxnps0phuvD6W6isCadCD2QeE7-f2xZxtq0ivisLSrY9ByDA7g-crYwsT2fQcnKyrrNwbIfGAKw54M_5GIAYHSDCbsfgb2J6RbS1WZrsc0E2XYL80seHCYNbxn9ukmCdUO2telTyN-Cawd/s1600/btcusd_jul15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdURUoe591rZpoWveV1LRn5hYfxNGRs5ufODBgzrZxnps0phuvD6W6isCadCD2QeE7-f2xZxtq0ivisLSrY9ByDA7g-crYwsT2fQcnKyrrNwbIfGAKw54M_5GIAYHSDCbsfgb2J6RbS1WZrsc0E2XYL80seHCYNbxn9ukmCdUO2telTyN-Cawd/s1600/btcusd_jul15.png"/></a></div>
<p>There are trading opportunities there for the taking. Long-term investors are in a holding pattern, although Bitcoin is looking like it will hold its 200-*week* MA, which is a good long term opportunity. Summer trading in full flow.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYB1863EXy3OQx2Tu8gAK-bM0dZ8R8ZIo8aD_l846XkslMd__l58BzBBbiLS0qfn5EmNsAV8VvzseuPYcG633KzjWvfwoUJ4nBpgo52OmHSsP-kA0Pevsp3WKZOrEyaFmidka60gOHwQaa-eXbn9aPaA7mJ3bEhj-t-xalQye2U_xawMOkPmeI/s1600/btcusd_jul15w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1080" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYB1863EXy3OQx2Tu8gAK-bM0dZ8R8ZIo8aD_l846XkslMd__l58BzBBbiLS0qfn5EmNsAV8VvzseuPYcG633KzjWvfwoUJ4nBpgo52OmHSsP-kA0Pevsp3WKZOrEyaFmidka60gOHwQaa-eXbn9aPaA7mJ3bEhj-t-xalQye2U_xawMOkPmeI/s1600/btcusd_jul15w.png"/></a></div>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-65590627256482013312026-07-13T00:14:42.328+01:002026-07-13T00:14:42.329+01:00Pattern Breakouts in S&P and Nasdaq, as Bitcoin on Buy Signal<p>The consolidations I mapped out last week for the S&P and Nasdaq, shipped breakouts move on Friday. Volume wasn't particularly high, but there were technical improvements for these indices.</p>
<p>The breakout in the S&P saw a new On-Balance-Volume breakout to follow the early 'buy' trigger in the MACD. The index is enjoying a relative improvement over the Nasdaq.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixGrh4UkPS2kcJRUQgWcPGhyuWsisY4RVZWn4h3OEHTom33g8AVTcMDzMRpbSIrBP8h-RoE4pPJg6QByCiA-PCJxwe4ewNRWL8xdizliyl5wpUaba7o1BEtuRHjFG-hjFa3bvb0gp7sdq7r1jwBL0qsVyZhoeRWSGaz2rz0a69M5G1ePoG1TV7/s1600/spx_jul12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixGrh4UkPS2kcJRUQgWcPGhyuWsisY4RVZWn4h3OEHTom33g8AVTcMDzMRpbSIrBP8h-RoE4pPJg6QByCiA-PCJxwe4ewNRWL8xdizliyl5wpUaba7o1BEtuRHjFG-hjFa3bvb0gp7sdq7r1jwBL0qsVyZhoeRWSGaz2rz0a69M5G1ePoG1TV7/s1600/spx_jul12.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq also edged higher out of its consolidation, running along its 50-day MA in the process. The MACD is on a new 'buy' trigger along with the stochastics mid-line. The index is outperforming the Russell 2000.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil5wZSul66ji5sDDCm1VDaTkeM7ah3fm27odT25jRrsi2R4VXhcza7LfOqKY7kz5__zYy8rAVh39KI366mD6YOUagPhTwnrssZf_hG4eAdZa8waTKBfXkOzDmfsW8NhU5w8N17JdOeHxpETwgXwqXVY60B3KyC76e9D-xCXf4ibu-WTRgqSVxr/s1600/compq_jul12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil5wZSul66ji5sDDCm1VDaTkeM7ah3fm27odT25jRrsi2R4VXhcza7LfOqKY7kz5__zYy8rAVh39KI366mD6YOUagPhTwnrssZf_hG4eAdZa8waTKBfXkOzDmfsW8NhU5w8N17JdOeHxpETwgXwqXVY60B3KyC76e9D-xCXf4ibu-WTRgqSVxr/s1600/compq_jul12.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had a quiet Friday, drifting along on ever decreasing volume. This apathy has led to an underperformance relative to the Nasdaq and S&P, although momentum has maintained strong.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirU1BM6pCOEqvzfG3hUCdivg8TCye5Z2nU2Hhn_q-upA_C-goic835Qy3ESQXUjpwdmDJlRQHCPd6m0A2fBLbSym0XOgn1WEUmPmqXgu3L0gGwLX10eo0r-2afKDU_lbTQ3iYrlPS8lRhQ23MrQJhOyU1vlqD2fEwHCOefk9DQ8JxySUlSrZ6g/s1600/iwm_jul12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirU1BM6pCOEqvzfG3hUCdivg8TCye5Z2nU2Hhn_q-upA_C-goic835Qy3ESQXUjpwdmDJlRQHCPd6m0A2fBLbSym0XOgn1WEUmPmqXgu3L0gGwLX10eo0r-2afKDU_lbTQ3iYrlPS8lRhQ23MrQJhOyU1vlqD2fEwHCOefk9DQ8JxySUlSrZ6g/s1600/iwm_jul12.png"/></a></div>
<p>The equal-weighted S&P is holding to its upwward trend, although its drifting ever closer to support. The MACD is strong, but is on a weak 'sell' signal. If there is a break of the trendline, look for a move to test 8,300.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOym-0l51peICfzo7Rcyt8a5hhUBmbFbdvGbFRKUd2IYpJjAHOxoUX1WC7vp-qJQhaDHGdqWj9NBYoGOH-wT2D91wbnS3GI3fff8J4XGt2Z4Xijj56nZnZ1T7M2oG3eMFSLhI3MRYT90xQjpuAPiYlnQxfESodk5NbVV0bSBK2oA07OruQhHot/s1600/spxew_jul12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOym-0l51peICfzo7Rcyt8a5hhUBmbFbdvGbFRKUd2IYpJjAHOxoUX1WC7vp-qJQhaDHGdqWj9NBYoGOH-wT2D91wbnS3GI3fff8J4XGt2Z4Xijj56nZnZ1T7M2oG3eMFSLhI3MRYT90xQjpuAPiYlnQxfESodk5NbVV0bSBK2oA07OruQhHot/s1600/spxew_jul12.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin was heading lower, but after getting close to its measured move target it rejected the bearish challenge on the tweezer bottom, and instead reversed higher (effectively, confirming the tweezer bottom - if a little unconventional). It has since regained its 20-day MA and is on course to challenge its 50-day MA. If it gets past the 50-day MA, it will take out the most last shorting opportunity generated by the spike high from the 20-day MA in June. This is coming off a heavy sell off from $126K and looks ready to make gains that could last months to years... As an aside, this is bouncing off the 200-week MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP5BWFvKd0r7IivRhiOBaoZNZGPj7UKw1mZ1mkhMMhald3bzDBZsc93UveiaGrF8wEBDy0jG2UGsrvFagZaEN8zvDL4fTta2TERUzq5xdVFgFgKSzzmxgeZB7JATHyHt8gdWdqaAfk6WCgca6HgjrGB4xEcouq4bFpLStrhlv0-Bw3hnobvvRy/s1600/btcusd_jul12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP5BWFvKd0r7IivRhiOBaoZNZGPj7UKw1mZ1mkhMMhald3bzDBZsc93UveiaGrF8wEBDy0jG2UGsrvFagZaEN8zvDL4fTta2TERUzq5xdVFgFgKSzzmxgeZB7JATHyHt8gdWdqaAfk6WCgca6HgjrGB4xEcouq4bFpLStrhlv0-Bw3hnobvvRy/s1600/btcusd_jul12.png"/></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV-ZHdbHWiAV7iXoNeNVW55MOJ2AOD2EeW9-C4zQEjX_Z0t1zQd11JV4_JeNR7Kh-A5X-Em9ioDjDEZfIPRQMnCbpdlqHoclWPuf5NXBQmZCx1WcgbyyeNFazb5Fr1jj5RHyi1nvtYQ59nb2kBG5QPno6yNBpdIVOfXIlXy-kjY4Fmd680pzbn/s1600/btcusd_jul12w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV-ZHdbHWiAV7iXoNeNVW55MOJ2AOD2EeW9-C4zQEjX_Z0t1zQd11JV4_JeNR7Kh-A5X-Em9ioDjDEZfIPRQMnCbpdlqHoclWPuf5NXBQmZCx1WcgbyyeNFazb5Fr1jj5RHyi1nvtYQ59nb2kBG5QPno6yNBpdIVOfXIlXy-kjY4Fmd680pzbn/s1600/btcusd_jul12w.png"/></a></div>
<p>With summer in full swing we are seeing a drop off in trading volume, but there are opportunities for those stuck at home. Bitcoin looks best of the bunch, but the Nasdaq and S&P also have potential.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-49487739353856332872026-07-09T00:41:51.372+01:002026-07-09T00:41:51.373+01:00Indices Broaden Into Trading Ranges<p>Not a whole lot has happened since my last update. Indices are morphing into trading ranges, minimizing the impact of some of the losses, even losses registering higher volume distribution.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) undercut its 20-day MA on confirmed distribution. Technicals saw new losses in the MACD and +DI/-DI. Next up is the 50-day MA. Such a test will confirm a sequence of higher highs and higher lows - maintaining the rally - or confirming trading range support...</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuOf8uIAAJqX_sKoQ43mW8jFvt0wYTnjeRBNWlDcFGn61gZmxK4X9uedNXCjMEz6YSGoLzW7tmNg8_5-6RbeLgT_xcbsMPIWS196BHhE6VJPb5Ll9iU_35h5uI-Qz0tdhxA8IVXx309PD5PcGHIxDWO6q-RCtwk-A_BnCcMs6-WHRzHzT_sUwm/s1600/iwm_jul8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuOf8uIAAJqX_sKoQ43mW8jFvt0wYTnjeRBNWlDcFGn61gZmxK4X9uedNXCjMEz6YSGoLzW7tmNg8_5-6RbeLgT_xcbsMPIWS196BHhE6VJPb5Ll9iU_35h5uI-Qz0tdhxA8IVXx309PD5PcGHIxDWO6q-RCtwk-A_BnCcMs6-WHRzHzT_sUwm/s1600/iwm_jul8.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P took over a 1% loss today as it tagged its 20-day MA and trendline support. Technicals remain net positive.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF_LNNEwvO5oLtDBwBWJbgyH7XtIWptdcGDaHchr1kHI0LS2b9XuHpaNefjWA6N6WckbteO1VAvWPnw06Ie635s4iS5bDtxgJ4gMEb_0D0kdDpQxUzq8TpmekgcViJYRCtqw-8jaiLmGyJnXap03NdlvZ3BDg7hE2hyphenhyphenxBcQIxnsH45YfaAMRin/s1600/spxeq_jul8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF_LNNEwvO5oLtDBwBWJbgyH7XtIWptdcGDaHchr1kHI0LS2b9XuHpaNefjWA6N6WckbteO1VAvWPnw06Ie635s4iS5bDtxgJ4gMEb_0D0kdDpQxUzq8TpmekgcViJYRCtqw-8jaiLmGyJnXap03NdlvZ3BDg7hE2hyphenhyphenxBcQIxnsH45YfaAMRin/s1600/spxeq_jul8.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The S&P is trading inside a broader trading range, thats also a bullish symmetrical triangle. Technicals are mixed; bullish MACD and Stochastics offset by bearish On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. The trade is swing trade on break of support/resistance with a stop on the flip side.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA3zpl6wBlz9xUTXj1no4fyFOOiUxhIYbmu0GmzTxLKA10nwjsUckgTcGHDULQFWXtwt7lOZPOUmfRsQbpDeG7LWvjkfSeMAGsr7IhNgms8dQCqJd-BlwugAmI20K4XOJdv_lznavcxYU0MpwQSr8PH2vymktvaG-xySLlv7NhCGciyGUcVwO9/s1600/spx_jul8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA3zpl6wBlz9xUTXj1no4fyFOOiUxhIYbmu0GmzTxLKA10nwjsUckgTcGHDULQFWXtwt7lOZPOUmfRsQbpDeG7LWvjkfSeMAGsr7IhNgms8dQCqJd-BlwugAmI20K4XOJdv_lznavcxYU0MpwQSr8PH2vymktvaG-xySLlv7NhCGciyGUcVwO9/s1600/spx_jul8.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Nasdaq is also shaping a consolidation within a larger trading range. Here, the consolidation triangle should break in the direction of the trend (higher); if trading this break, a stop goes on a loss of 25K. Technicals are bearish, so the risk for failure of this break is high.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSH2MW8Rgk4BvWQDzrvI4TD1OTxRYB709cYq9vbWQt14J78DQFpHYQPiNv6PcblAD5NcqeAVeKI65a69-69xmnDMfqPLOLvmiWm8VURDOhdSHP__3x33y8UU0tpPJT-jZQ1e1Vq7rHdg98Jkz4hR-jqkr5gxObVg3uhdAPyaTjupGwQJCpo6ML/s1600/nas_jul8.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSH2MW8Rgk4BvWQDzrvI4TD1OTxRYB709cYq9vbWQt14J78DQFpHYQPiNv6PcblAD5NcqeAVeKI65a69-69xmnDMfqPLOLvmiWm8VURDOhdSHP__3x33y8UU0tpPJT-jZQ1e1Vq7rHdg98Jkz4hR-jqkr5gxObVg3uhdAPyaTjupGwQJCpo6ML/s1600/nas_jul8.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin got a bit of a reprieve after managing a bounce off 57.5K, that for a while, looked like it was going to fail. It followed this with a push above its 20-day MA, but it has since failed to break through 65K and at least challenge the last swing high. This is still the best shorting opportunity, but cover if there a move back to 64.5K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNRujGZhKfb9SWLibnZQmKPiJqtxFZRh_01jI-j6dhfniMOYya8UtiSZjOZSaZHNQcsVDfegIYhUH_LHYfaJZaTYIoyVRnA6ZJJ0jGsvoTv3ZWRIm0RnMkeEP2Z6asLZhbvZ9Flq9AH1ctovrUZ2YARDnXDzCfvKpwtZVmNcN123yhm9PtP_k9/s1600/bitcoin_jul9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNRujGZhKfb9SWLibnZQmKPiJqtxFZRh_01jI-j6dhfniMOYya8UtiSZjOZSaZHNQcsVDfegIYhUH_LHYfaJZaTYIoyVRnA6ZJJ0jGsvoTv3ZWRIm0RnMkeEP2Z6asLZhbvZ9Flq9AH1ctovrUZ2YARDnXDzCfvKpwtZVmNcN123yhm9PtP_k9/s1600/bitcoin_jul9.png"/></a></div>
<p>There are trading opportunities across the different asset classes, but broader trends are still open for debated. Prior action (except in Bitcoin) favors bulls, but let price be your lead.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-5418781898562610472026-06-30T22:48:42.485+01:002026-06-30T22:48:42.486+01:00S&P and Nasdaq Posts Gains To Maintain Consolidation<p>Both the Nasdaq and S&P posted small gains after yesterday's to keep the consolidation intact and return both indices above their respective 50-day MAs. Buying volume was down for both indices. Nasdaq technicals remain net bearish, although momentum for the S&P is bouncing off the midline - an area of support in a cyclical bull market.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisgFy4gttP7E-dRq49s0KjzYN9b1AG8NSZG_FXs-Q9DFcx7nlZcLO3rcTMr-3_qlV6NiHrOuSdIvx6ULA7uVtIXxzR6uwY6TmVWgwJq861vEVODuJMPXPzkHQnQZ0_yygfjlIZJwGRUxkp3gzuiWFTAEdBqNztW3fKO7sZhpnV3szL0omWCa9U/s1600/spx_jun30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisgFy4gttP7E-dRq49s0KjzYN9b1AG8NSZG_FXs-Q9DFcx7nlZcLO3rcTMr-3_qlV6NiHrOuSdIvx6ULA7uVtIXxzR6uwY6TmVWgwJq861vEVODuJMPXPzkHQnQZ0_yygfjlIZJwGRUxkp3gzuiWFTAEdBqNztW3fKO7sZhpnV3szL0omWCa9U/s1600/spx_jun30.png"/></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3gVU0P_hYCzpo2Egzr6hd3rrEcvAeXFV797ER9mJmSJRe-qaQWyQqs6abiHjD_QEBZh9lqZ6F14Ww8-XK8URJ_gX1Y9A178rMYhjE7GU04PrLeNs23LgRjmrA_Y4scFPpEWiYsaGiz78ZVRIHfy_87mZ6r5XL5njnVTsnh8hirU5GxvKjEoC-/s1600/nas_jun30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3gVU0P_hYCzpo2Egzr6hd3rrEcvAeXFV797ER9mJmSJRe-qaQWyQqs6abiHjD_QEBZh9lqZ6F14Ww8-XK8URJ_gX1Y9A178rMYhjE7GU04PrLeNs23LgRjmrA_Y4scFPpEWiYsaGiz78ZVRIHfy_87mZ6r5XL5njnVTsnh8hirU5GxvKjEoC-/s1600/nas_jun30.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is holding breakout support as it trades near highs. Of the main indices, it's best positioned to kick on to new all-time highs. If it's able to do so, then look for the Nasdaq and S&P to challenge their June highs.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsZqh35AJKChZK1jy8_7Rx2pJUifP7GFEtOGIhGytJfxKoXRKCFi5TuKMlz-rZxFYJ0GRMQX9RNPVyv7ZvNJqaoq9OH_eBROn42FyGffVoBbLEWNMsveSJ2JDQErC_KSa6J6FKQjMDdmQqfBUIxrj0dcnTrQm096LZ0oeI1dmeN9eFHAMyHS3h/s1600/iwm_jun30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsZqh35AJKChZK1jy8_7Rx2pJUifP7GFEtOGIhGytJfxKoXRKCFi5TuKMlz-rZxFYJ0GRMQX9RNPVyv7ZvNJqaoq9OH_eBROn42FyGffVoBbLEWNMsveSJ2JDQErC_KSa6J6FKQjMDdmQqfBUIxrj0dcnTrQm096LZ0oeI1dmeN9eFHAMyHS3h/s1600/iwm_jun30.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The equal weighted S&P has also squeezed itself at all-time highs. It's a good swing trade opportunity; trade the break of today's narrow range (high/low) and place your stop on the flip side - a high risk:reward trade when you can trail a stop, particularly when a breakeven trade can probably be established quite quickly.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_3iZdh1EvslTBIP1CqLdhPVEdn9NXsZtM8A0i0EuCmu3JjD1zxV_LDrz8cnZ7KQBwRJg_BghDIdUPf_HQQZ7USXQCheRaee5udzUZXiqcARr7jdoUU9DJOqNiA0N1auR16Qe8tt_cOSjmUGXqTZU93tVvN51gZ9WD6dxJYgGSwAaSecQJ-lzs/s1600/spxew_jun30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_3iZdh1EvslTBIP1CqLdhPVEdn9NXsZtM8A0i0EuCmu3JjD1zxV_LDrz8cnZ7KQBwRJg_BghDIdUPf_HQQZ7USXQCheRaee5udzUZXiqcARr7jdoUU9DJOqNiA0N1auR16Qe8tt_cOSjmUGXqTZU93tVvN51gZ9WD6dxJYgGSwAaSecQJ-lzs/s1600/spxew_jun30.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin is drifting lower and I'll be looking for a big red candlestick (>5%) soon. Hard to see why buyers would be keen to step in for an asset that has no intrinsic value. It's a short trade, although not as attractive as it was when it traded at its 20-day MA (marked by blue arrows on the chart).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBrfSNKAfmHfYzv2WciOJqXE6AD37yaV2pPUH1MvwyMi8hyphenhyphenQNtClUd83xbIHeR3XESZlu7Lss1Zl62qykqzEohXbbfS5KGRauih0IFqjegM2yWO_FcrMghumbWTHtC8nn01eNbwby6a0Hkvv22uOdxCVtaraZdoLOYgpkDcS-DXx_WfOHTGf-_/s1600/btcusd_jun30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBrfSNKAfmHfYzv2WciOJqXE6AD37yaV2pPUH1MvwyMi8hyphenhyphenQNtClUd83xbIHeR3XESZlu7Lss1Zl62qykqzEohXbbfS5KGRauih0IFqjegM2yWO_FcrMghumbWTHtC8nn01eNbwby6a0Hkvv22uOdxCVtaraZdoLOYgpkDcS-DXx_WfOHTGf-_/s1600/btcusd_jun30.png"/></a></div>
<p>Semiconductors have made a solid recovery over the past couple of days and there is an increasing chance this will hold the gains from March (amazing really, given the index has doubled over this time).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfXU3ArHiojiI0pVwAVDGTFUH_F_f5aqrZNJo53Chqu3570Q4BcmpTD9K3_Zl34WOTdKdkI_-CVA8BMUPjOBG913eSNoR3IktRjwFDt8F2imjlWo8P0buMbSa3m-wk3kR2ff2B7yNhuYinj99O-qza0Q4ulaKjsnCvW4Fb6un-9_jJ56wpNhnE/s1600/sox_jun30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfXU3ArHiojiI0pVwAVDGTFUH_F_f5aqrZNJo53Chqu3570Q4BcmpTD9K3_Zl34WOTdKdkI_-CVA8BMUPjOBG913eSNoR3IktRjwFDt8F2imjlWo8P0buMbSa3m-wk3kR2ff2B7yNhuYinj99O-qza0Q4ulaKjsnCvW4Fb6un-9_jJ56wpNhnE/s1600/sox_jun30.png"/></a></div>
<p>We have a number of trade opportunities across markets; for bulls, there is the Russell 2000, for swing traders there is the equal-weighted S&P, and for bears there is Bitcoin. I will be offline until next Wednesday as I'm travelling, we will see how these predictions pan out.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-81196896263633363072026-06-28T22:41:32.089+01:002026-06-28T22:41:32.089+01:00S&P Joins Nasdaq With Net Bearish Technicals<p>It's not all doom-and-gloom, but there is a split between the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) and the Nasdaq ($COMPQ) and weighted S&P ($SPX). It's still unclear which side will win out, but we can play each trade as it stands.</p>
<p>The S&P dropped below its 50-day MA on higher volume distribution, enough so that it's now considered to be net bearish. The index is outperforming the Nasdaq, but unless there is a quick recovery this index will drift back to 7K; shorts can place a stop above its 50-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe9N3wNaQ32RHoiyeTEw8xhMuc3zdkWIgbrgMZv4f0Hee-EBcMMeRpIi_mdpnWgccTpI8cWFKBwzj65XdTSPiC-drYnaAEKlrRmnDFBXylgdMFBtFGd6xHHEp2hYQufHGgXE1c3OdT7S19LLHC2CYHzqyALGYHsFwkSTl0LoBOXUFN_dWKDSmR/s1600/spx_jun26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe9N3wNaQ32RHoiyeTEw8xhMuc3zdkWIgbrgMZv4f0Hee-EBcMMeRpIi_mdpnWgccTpI8cWFKBwzj65XdTSPiC-drYnaAEKlrRmnDFBXylgdMFBtFGd6xHHEp2hYQufHGgXE1c3OdT7S19LLHC2CYHzqyALGYHsFwkSTl0LoBOXUFN_dWKDSmR/s1600/spx_jun26.png"/></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq had already undercut its 50-day MA, and lost further ground on Friday on higher volume distribution; a sign of what's to come for the S&P. Technicals are net negative, but are not oversold, so this remains on course to make it to 24K.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikZ6AxQB2iNqEGnlWS0Gf7Gft2jOA9J_7OojTpVmwChA4CPQTMoLO-Vxl0q34_ZevazlhkJ_3FMpJwm6T7D0sbX4IkuC8W71j-WP-8twzUXvR92Jp20HKh2XKP-XYCAmTHBQ8ONskAw4IR3yUnDpg87qZOHNGSfERvVWp4-78jU8vmviPlxMPX/s1600/compq_jun26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikZ6AxQB2iNqEGnlWS0Gf7Gft2jOA9J_7OojTpVmwChA4CPQTMoLO-Vxl0q34_ZevazlhkJ_3FMpJwm6T7D0sbX4IkuC8W71j-WP-8twzUXvR92Jp20HKh2XKP-XYCAmTHBQ8ONskAw4IR3yUnDpg87qZOHNGSfERvVWp4-78jU8vmviPlxMPX/s1600/compq_jun26.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) sits on the other side of the coin. The index managed to rally from $296 before closing just shy of $300. Compared to the aforementioned indices, it's net bullish. I would expect gains to continue; longs can place a stop below Friday's lows.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFObvyitDYTg_L_8z4MfjpED6gJuz5sVT1HICVH4RJ7cxgYzyF5U4FPR3ln3mI_ReBNHPzELDYiC97QtdJ3oK6cIGKCzkwg_p5tkxrzzpDLXFKtc2XgdkLLbfiPCMjy1uI83eHvroED-b_JyoLeQaoWbA2hXlS0Wf3kN7QTDR4BPZL1VCKC3D-/s1600/iwm_jun28.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFObvyitDYTg_L_8z4MfjpED6gJuz5sVT1HICVH4RJ7cxgYzyF5U4FPR3ln3mI_ReBNHPzELDYiC97QtdJ3oK6cIGKCzkwg_p5tkxrzzpDLXFKtc2XgdkLLbfiPCMjy1uI83eHvroED-b_JyoLeQaoWbA2hXlS0Wf3kN7QTDR4BPZL1VCKC3D-/s1600/iwm_jun28.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The equal-weighted S&P closed with a bullish white candlestick, completing a sequence of "three white soldiers", which is a continuation bullish pattern. Technicals are mixed, but price action is key and this is on course to make new highs (Friday's high counts as a new all-time closing high).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLVFBXkyfQKI41_YBvXG65WSKa7W0Hwi9R6PSgip5d6aDmetTsgk_pJkKlCw_d2CnzZn9cYf-pwjx854A0N75JtmcmxyzfBnDjBc65rUEqsQizYkQM9Rwkm0c-G00SACFWixuxHbrwD6lxJRB2LoFPeblLYw9G8R_oFvIwprR6kiBg02bghire/s1600/spxew_jun28.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLVFBXkyfQKI41_YBvXG65WSKa7W0Hwi9R6PSgip5d6aDmetTsgk_pJkKlCw_d2CnzZn9cYf-pwjx854A0N75JtmcmxyzfBnDjBc65rUEqsQizYkQM9Rwkm0c-G00SACFWixuxHbrwD6lxJRB2LoFPeblLYw9G8R_oFvIwprR6kiBg02bghire/s1600/spxew_jun28.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin is siding with bears. Last week offered the potential for a tweezer bottom, but Friday's small loss eased back into the tweezer spike lows. Technicals are net negative, including a new bearish 'sell' trigger in the MACD.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioBCp52XP4fH6oV_sRH3ixAXdJVWFnmbszGB_PBy2oCANIfZcdXezEA6vlidupYCdggqw9oidro5GbuzQlPf6SGeHQ4GzcV92AnaskZu1vZz7is8VRhtu_yLr3e2uAEnttcV0T26yFsUP4zRTMft7I2sLdlwxD-BRFJ7Ja47h2WzcAObZPdK0I/s1600/btcuas_jun28.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioBCp52XP4fH6oV_sRH3ixAXdJVWFnmbszGB_PBy2oCANIfZcdXezEA6vlidupYCdggqw9oidro5GbuzQlPf6SGeHQ4GzcV92AnaskZu1vZz7is8VRhtu_yLr3e2uAEnttcV0T26yFsUP4zRTMft7I2sLdlwxD-BRFJ7Ja47h2WzcAObZPdK0I/s1600/btcuas_jun28.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Dow Industrials is drifting sideways with spike highs taking up most of the action for the last couple of weeks. Technicals are net bullish, although the MACD is shifting sideways as On-Balance-Volume trends sharply higher - although Friday's bearish distribution bucks this trend.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY7hfI8aDF4iMaVn73EVVDfP_buOtQme8DGYuJtbK6mhY090onHV5QqCEd-lT5_uD3kWgrhMYNUHfRlV6zw53KEZQTQ1Kfh2HRQE4HQ28b2buZUEJBNSui454GcDq5NaVNPoXUB1aYmTCgii8mZIdz_NfVp7ZMHRT9MlqFmNPqWg9o9dl9-QyE/s1600/indu_jun28.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY7hfI8aDF4iMaVn73EVVDfP_buOtQme8DGYuJtbK6mhY090onHV5QqCEd-lT5_uD3kWgrhMYNUHfRlV6zw53KEZQTQ1Kfh2HRQE4HQ28b2buZUEJBNSui454GcDq5NaVNPoXUB1aYmTCgii8mZIdz_NfVp7ZMHRT9MlqFmNPqWg9o9dl9-QyE/s1600/indu_jun28.png"/></a></div>
<p>The other problematic index is the Semiconductor Index. It has played to a bull trap and undercut its 20-day MA in the process. Technicals are mixed, but given the doubling of the index since March it could shed a tonne and not shift bearish.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAupbJm5gB3JfgAGowBwnsptK158rh8s6tSL8jiCJSTFyP7PI73RKeDSZh3DRR1EiFDlbVM5oUn4iWXM8UFtxJonMeBAAvsByhy0AnnLPkqNuW881UvguVmdC0unhzOvy4Q_14DP-Pd5n_AKsmyslpQDEFZvibWRQ10rEHmdW52Q9YTLGh7l0l/s1600/sox_jun28.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAupbJm5gB3JfgAGowBwnsptK158rh8s6tSL8jiCJSTFyP7PI73RKeDSZh3DRR1EiFDlbVM5oUn4iWXM8UFtxJonMeBAAvsByhy0AnnLPkqNuW881UvguVmdC0unhzOvy4Q_14DP-Pd5n_AKsmyslpQDEFZvibWRQ10rEHmdW52Q9YTLGh7l0l/s1600/sox_jun28.png"/></a></div>
<p>There are trades for both sides tomorrow. Waiting after the first half-hour to see the direction of the market will determine if you should be playing the long- or short-side of the market.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-33490048752513758942026-06-24T23:42:34.323+01:002026-06-24T23:42:34.323+01:00Sellers Appear As Support Comes Under Pressure<p>It was going to happen at some point but sellers have come out of the woodwork. Tech was hardest hit, but there is plenty of support for indices to work with.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) was one of the least impacted by the selling. It staged a mini-breakout, while today's inverse hammer came on higher volume accumulation it's still in a position where it could go either way.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6xi8IcOn8NDb8SDUcA4fS_Kf65vWdJkvH6K_WJ_uGME1WfxsDsoVBQCOVESplt_nO7czihxkgTLyXiKZiGQYhzvhBs2xcgdrmvgSAjaDCbiWQtqj2EOGCLV1nzudDXLlESQwdLNUUtk9obawrJCKdWwBt1cMzMKSPSlrQeShNMY8S7_ExAUmP/s1600/iwm_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6xi8IcOn8NDb8SDUcA4fS_Kf65vWdJkvH6K_WJ_uGME1WfxsDsoVBQCOVESplt_nO7czihxkgTLyXiKZiGQYhzvhBs2xcgdrmvgSAjaDCbiWQtqj2EOGCLV1nzudDXLlESQwdLNUUtk9obawrJCKdWwBt1cMzMKSPSlrQeShNMY8S7_ExAUmP/s1600/iwm_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is defending the 20-day MA while the MACD holds to a 'sell' trigger. The relative outperformance of the index to the weighted S&P is a positive but the 'tweezer top' remains the dominant influence.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpErP8XtmVzn1uo0XAXP-rCN4g5Xc9MDSYsMGOziYWFpu2a3GGMlpeZBrCvoqVyuR_ynlQApvyvG7w8GdHFdIsrNu2Uv1Iy-q7adVJcgtNsvfNZto9wzHbyFI_2rg9PFuSa4zXOVlSBkJ1e0NU71gHWOKqRj-JbkVAtSNN5ozPclDOkIA9uVOm/s1600/spxew_jujn24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpErP8XtmVzn1uo0XAXP-rCN4g5Xc9MDSYsMGOziYWFpu2a3GGMlpeZBrCvoqVyuR_ynlQApvyvG7w8GdHFdIsrNu2Uv1Iy-q7adVJcgtNsvfNZto9wzHbyFI_2rg9PFuSa4zXOVlSBkJ1e0NU71gHWOKqRj-JbkVAtSNN5ozPclDOkIA9uVOm/s1600/spxew_jujn24.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The weighted S&P ($SPX) is trading at its 50-day MA. The double doji on the gap down has the potential to be a bullish island reversal *if* it can gap higher. Technicals are mostly bearish, while momentum sits at the mid-point that typically marks a tradeworthy bottom. If this should undercut the midpoint in stochastics and price breaks the 50-day MA, then the next target is 7,000.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdZ0-XG2ynhfhatqnvya5AiCkZAWgLPtg_HYsuoA3FnZGgWXjuWwPByyYx6qSrSzLabJtPBaYhcZQMgPexxI73o__pJ7BPHGt0Cj09QQcPoneRccubSP-4qTjDaYhV1xbeUz5h9gfvZJllSczhUa6wUPyvGPk9UwDUVlMnVSeW6SvwzAxNBc3p/s1600/spx_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdZ0-XG2ynhfhatqnvya5AiCkZAWgLPtg_HYsuoA3FnZGgWXjuWwPByyYx6qSrSzLabJtPBaYhcZQMgPexxI73o__pJ7BPHGt0Cj09QQcPoneRccubSP-4qTjDaYhV1xbeUz5h9gfvZJllSczhUa6wUPyvGPk9UwDUVlMnVSeW6SvwzAxNBc3p/s1600/spx_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Nasdaq sits in a similar predictament as the S&P, but it undercut its 50-day MA as selling volume picks up. Technicals are net negative, including an undercut of the stochastic midline I'm looking for the S&P to defend.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjOVVcFbBgLKRhZTy4_-oMzXTZq_RwSp1vfPsGgxxuXYrxhLL5x8M0eH8F7FDKrSXLF59lNulKZdvBShavLk-S_UB-aH4S8hBCcx8YdZpd9nflg6IZjMITIOfgH3y5PX3zql8jAb0rKTwbFYqRIyA_nb7nG4mZ6f-GyYliZJjLHsGtElsMEENh/s1600/nas_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjOVVcFbBgLKRhZTy4_-oMzXTZq_RwSp1vfPsGgxxuXYrxhLL5x8M0eH8F7FDKrSXLF59lNulKZdvBShavLk-S_UB-aH4S8hBCcx8YdZpd9nflg6IZjMITIOfgH3y5PX3zql8jAb0rKTwbFYqRIyA_nb7nG4mZ6f-GyYliZJjLHsGtElsMEENh/s1600/nas_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin continues to favor the short side and a loss of 60K could see another big step lower. Technicals are bearish with the exception of weak MACD 'buy'.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV07n58uCFPINEnz5wnZGyRAC-FucjGWa7_Sp7pxxkQQbEZgt4-BsAP7y55me5cCkZZzLvjqEzh6mQPbGJTee9mK-FwtNk-FsVRP1bxTmiHWJp9kHWPrCH85C7l6hSN1m-QamjYXq_KBIdQ2luTwirhxokn34MSlng9R34TghWm_TtdjPAPD-i/s1600/bitcoin_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV07n58uCFPINEnz5wnZGyRAC-FucjGWa7_Sp7pxxkQQbEZgt4-BsAP7y55me5cCkZZzLvjqEzh6mQPbGJTee9mK-FwtNk-FsVRP1bxTmiHWJp9kHWPrCH85C7l6hSN1m-QamjYXq_KBIdQ2luTwirhxokn34MSlng9R34TghWm_TtdjPAPD-i/s1600/bitcoin_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Dow Industrials are holding out on net bullish technicals, but a sequence of bearish spike highs leaves it vulnerable to selling. Should sellers attack, look for a test of the 20-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB4hrFTPR2R5FrNYYhyKxponWXVTQ7NBP7Xb2OsemeI6cMfVyC2pYDj9zYPGtZ6wbWcKbX_RMYlIYVFLSmt8wO60roPcCz1P17KPwRfLmR3GuJ7cLzbkgz4EypoBQRwGxXG4AtGZ8cJnDv515o9_va845xk_f3HvCOmx-tNivhQpI2quzAnegH/s1600/indu_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB4hrFTPR2R5FrNYYhyKxponWXVTQ7NBP7Xb2OsemeI6cMfVyC2pYDj9zYPGtZ6wbWcKbX_RMYlIYVFLSmt8wO60roPcCz1P17KPwRfLmR3GuJ7cLzbkgz4EypoBQRwGxXG4AtGZ8cJnDv515o9_va845xk_f3HvCOmx-tNivhQpI2quzAnegH/s1600/indu_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>Finally, Semiconductors have left a doji 'bull trap' with 'sell' triggers in the MACD, CCI and ADX, but momentum remains strongly bullish. The index is holding its 20-day MA, but a test of the 50-day MA would be welcome at this point.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaEjREuh-WEqF2xa1DBbbGRuVM9aFbw8FES6lWCzspS_HW7v_HEQeO76xAhvDT8KLpH5gzcd9VtOBR6wDHyePrr8-dwRXJtpu0tAO0-V15UuVspQymkTZAbfSuW6hJdIhrlZGhQ6dMNn8lO7T-KDRjGIaf3piY8_AfEdIkfnby86C0aqVRoQth/s1600/sox_jun24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaEjREuh-WEqF2xa1DBbbGRuVM9aFbw8FES6lWCzspS_HW7v_HEQeO76xAhvDT8KLpH5gzcd9VtOBR6wDHyePrr8-dwRXJtpu0tAO0-V15UuVspQymkTZAbfSuW6hJdIhrlZGhQ6dMNn8lO7T-KDRjGIaf3piY8_AfEdIkfnby86C0aqVRoQth/s1600/sox_jun24.png"/></a></div>
<p>For tomorrow, interest will be on how indices defend 20-day MAs. Profit taking is likely across the different indices, but if they can stabilize just off highs it will go a long way to calm the nerves of traders concerned with the rapid pace of gains.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-91660127656291220902026-06-23T00:23:13.288+01:002026-06-23T00:23:13.289+01:00Russell 2000 Fresh Breakout<p>A quiet start to the week with only the Russell 2000 ($IWM) suggesting it could be on the move (higher). Today's action registered as a breakout, albeit on low volume, but with technicals net positive. The Russell 2000 has been outperforming the Nasdaq since the start of June, so it has the interest of market participants and is the best placed for those seeking new long trades.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrVMc2Aoq4lcn6h16YabPruaXcUxbB_YIf7IkbfhDZdiWiHXaax8a31R2wP4XZJlKJs5cH4VisTN6tQv9Lcn46Kcmu96UJ7iBdqv9feu7HrBox9SG0fZ7rDu-SblA9ESwQV047t2rYhtuI1YreeTNjXEC2OiwnyXClNJCglHYBWGxyWuDc_ylw/s1600/iwm_jun22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrVMc2Aoq4lcn6h16YabPruaXcUxbB_YIf7IkbfhDZdiWiHXaax8a31R2wP4XZJlKJs5cH4VisTN6tQv9Lcn46Kcmu96UJ7iBdqv9feu7HrBox9SG0fZ7rDu-SblA9ESwQV047t2rYhtuI1YreeTNjXEC2OiwnyXClNJCglHYBWGxyWuDc_ylw/s1600/iwm_jun22.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>Some things to watch in other indices. The equal weighted S&P continues to play out the reversal from the Tweezer Top. It's currently down at its 20-day MA with the 50-day MA and 8,320 support next on the test-list. It should see demand at the latter level should it get there.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi77ui4mVZ-V9u4VkbBOT4iwcrIHlBVNUkz4QxMKycWNraYMU2_t_vt3g1LgvXufYhHv8AP4YV-1433XTXJzbgPGiEyqeNn3RjcvzxT-TQhmYb0djZKOVVkUWjvztrfWJOZKi9sOdITos-dpKY0_vwhlTRvXcGIZHTS2YZAhyphenhyphenkVtqo7Row46IT8/s750/spxew_jun66.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" height="320" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi77ui4mVZ-V9u4VkbBOT4iwcrIHlBVNUkz4QxMKycWNraYMU2_t_vt3g1LgvXufYhHv8AP4YV-1433XTXJzbgPGiEyqeNn3RjcvzxT-TQhmYb0djZKOVVkUWjvztrfWJOZKi9sOdITos-dpKY0_vwhlTRvXcGIZHTS2YZAhyphenhyphenkVtqo7Row46IT8/s320/spxew_jun66.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>Bitcoin is in an interesting state. It had sold off hard into the February low and this should have been the catalyst for a sustained rally. Instead, we got a low key rally to the 200-day MA before sellers returned. We now see it struggling at its 20-day MA having made an initial bounce on the February low retest. Today's inverse hammer looks like another shorting opportunity with a stop above today's high.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKBMalfVRbGaot552lR9ZnRk0jtK3b8VLlkv7Lc0YxjDOl7K2xRGcZgb9y6ll2APAlxdp7mdIQQMm60lag1HLsrYjtDb6J_RZHugrEc7U8n9ZyZpYWcSoZjkVpuCsNzOBpXAGcZycIQ_IwJMH5q3Cdu5v5FRB5lKQ9a8C7z552ezgukZubyMu9/s1600/btcusdjun22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKBMalfVRbGaot552lR9ZnRk0jtK3b8VLlkv7Lc0YxjDOl7K2xRGcZgb9y6ll2APAlxdp7mdIQQMm60lag1HLsrYjtDb6J_RZHugrEc7U8n9ZyZpYWcSoZjkVpuCsNzOBpXAGcZycIQ_IwJMH5q3Cdu5v5FRB5lKQ9a8C7z552ezgukZubyMu9/s1600/btcusdjun22.png"/></a></div>
<p>Semiconductors are showing another topping doji, similar to that from the end of may. Technicals are net positive. So far, these peaks haven't resulted in an extended decline, but today's finish is a marker for one.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpvQWaQdvr30brUak2HLeEDDyqyarWAVx8tBOgFtUL9iZUmSAEhJ7Fs15B8_ESU4phi6bQNGqeVF7yA88K2h6w5GTWOESzJ6bUnWtqlKsnBeOyl60J-8p8t8v-IK3F0K15tZC-8g2lGE3R_c0arlMQQQT5MKbF4BFZnD6xNPL5S03I_2YaVUVG/s1600/sox_jun23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpvQWaQdvr30brUak2HLeEDDyqyarWAVx8tBOgFtUL9iZUmSAEhJ7Fs15B8_ESU4phi6bQNGqeVF7yA88K2h6w5GTWOESzJ6bUnWtqlKsnBeOyl60J-8p8t8v-IK3F0K15tZC-8g2lGE3R_c0arlMQQQT5MKbF4BFZnD6xNPL5S03I_2YaVUVG/s1600/sox_jun23.png"/></a></div>
<p>For tomorrow, we will want to see which side of the market will win out; bulls for the Russell 2000, bears for the equal-weighted S&P. Expect the winner to influence other markets and break the bull/bear picture of the Russell 2000 or equal-weighted S&P.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-11829105439745890092026-06-18T22:47:01.717+01:002026-06-18T22:49:28.330+01:00Bitcoin Continues To Lose Ground As Indices Stabilize<p>Bitcoin continues to play dead as indices hold their ground. The 20-day MA of Bitcoin is resistance as today's selling places it on course to test 60K (again), although I suspect the next test will fail, it's too recent a test since the February low test bounce. Only the MACD is offering a weak 'buy'.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwKGUhUgENjDxLkkrbCA7FqtP6Te3ntD5Gc_6jnZ2b2m9n7z-eD6mqe941HV4TasGLNdOefNdhFJP3XAzxzjnRiZu7qZuXb2NiBl_w9V_54jWetgXcvznIef65xBh6e6OssN2L06S8sqp0RmssGu9I9dvQ34TCOGNvbuVl2c1wVw1qApeE7IwB/s1600/btcusd_jun18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwKGUhUgENjDxLkkrbCA7FqtP6Te3ntD5Gc_6jnZ2b2m9n7z-eD6mqe941HV4TasGLNdOefNdhFJP3XAzxzjnRiZu7qZuXb2NiBl_w9V_54jWetgXcvznIef65xBh6e6OssN2L06S8sqp0RmssGu9I9dvQ34TCOGNvbuVl2c1wVw1qApeE7IwB/s1600/btcusd_jun18.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P played true to its tweezer top as yesterday's loss took the index back to its 20-day MA. There is a weak MACD 'sell', but other technicals are bullish. An undercut of the 20-day MA would set up for a test of the 50-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV1iCH5bhEbtl67ftQDDmVBfnEaLWZromYpDqjrgYunV-BrUgGluAfO48dXhyphenhyphenuYGH5mqRww965pYtb2k1bHpUXQkWYvt17fxNn7xhjIqzFmsODnrvERtpin6exXSIKor9d10JMyPYLkdVcUKqbVdjYsoQxoBdm-pdRj2sBYioW-mKEynGMTDRi/s1600/spxew_jun18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV1iCH5bhEbtl67ftQDDmVBfnEaLWZromYpDqjrgYunV-BrUgGluAfO48dXhyphenhyphenuYGH5mqRww965pYtb2k1bHpUXQkWYvt17fxNn7xhjIqzFmsODnrvERtpin6exXSIKor9d10JMyPYLkdVcUKqbVdjYsoQxoBdm-pdRj2sBYioW-mKEynGMTDRi/s1600/spxew_jun18.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The S&P posted big volume, but little change on the day. It might be a swing trade to some; a move above the day's highs would open up a test for the all-time high.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJsyH6x354aFtNqe4ja1twH-Ou_-xVNXewikVNnuhrw41HsioefvevLsKGuGklgzZQlFkIg9kFeRciAmyhsuUhih_tbwxOwbKMznXV3PFmnq9eibGk-UPdX4PgmsKe3PF-8HMxAF38uZNecVGrrNCyrTatUH83M278Vk1EHq3dCRniVNFQn-ZK/s1600/spx_jun18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJsyH6x354aFtNqe4ja1twH-Ou_-xVNXewikVNnuhrw41HsioefvevLsKGuGklgzZQlFkIg9kFeRciAmyhsuUhih_tbwxOwbKMznXV3PFmnq9eibGk-UPdX4PgmsKe3PF-8HMxAF38uZNecVGrrNCyrTatUH83M278Vk1EHq3dCRniVNFQn-ZK/s1600/spx_jun18.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) offers the most bullish setup, with today's candlestick marking buying pressure on net bullish technicals.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFwWhN4B0kKHz2mNuW9JOSDG5RLlfmu7xSNxLw7viV_lhfCYaUncc2t-_jYO1l-t2Dznwm9gRjOAfnVYiVAHsIgOJUbLku7xeCVw6fs8Yf7VdHKLHAPF91QJU9CKsPgAKkKOJyUw2pfGN09Bk3-80Xp8uNYT8gSdXC6GWNzb1ldCFjEVRzmaFp/s1600/spx_jun18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFwWhN4B0kKHz2mNuW9JOSDG5RLlfmu7xSNxLw7viV_lhfCYaUncc2t-_jYO1l-t2Dznwm9gRjOAfnVYiVAHsIgOJUbLku7xeCVw6fs8Yf7VdHKLHAPF91QJU9CKsPgAKkKOJyUw2pfGN09Bk3-80Xp8uNYT8gSdXC6GWNzb1ldCFjEVRzmaFp/s1600/spx_jun18.png"/></a></div>
<p>On the other side. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with two bearish spike highs that presents a shortingg opportunity.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYq3jlFWpUB-GNN-vndBQ2-KFrbemZ7OcCbh9VTKapywvicvcQJtByNjAv8dMdViMLjkmgClhSU1Tkb1Q-o6fqm1CdxixdQGrFVMUltVQtTpRjR7y12RkWEslTSS1Wtrwq5nB0KCT6tXg4f7bhZVCt1hfHoW-hcW6lQZv5h7CG_Q6i6GTis6GZ/s1600/djia_jun18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYq3jlFWpUB-GNN-vndBQ2-KFrbemZ7OcCbh9VTKapywvicvcQJtByNjAv8dMdViMLjkmgClhSU1Tkb1Q-o6fqm1CdxixdQGrFVMUltVQtTpRjR7y12RkWEslTSS1Wtrwq5nB0KCT6tXg4f7bhZVCt1hfHoW-hcW6lQZv5h7CG_Q6i6GTis6GZ/s1600/djia_jun18.png"/></a></div>
<p>While the Semiconductor Index accelerates again. It now trades 72%(!) above its 200-day MA. This is simply unsustainable, so watch for the 'bear trap'.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUZ4tXtmEe_FgaIdgwKNPtj8KqNVCYNVMyV2ktcuFAOaZu3uwp6yt_FgmPV4buovwEBNcNpG78tiCsQm73jDStwnTdM-cNqcF0xqey3WPM-91_b3gqPmvLbzrQSV2M0QAJ7IZ7sXLTgV5o0dmi3Bz17LFtSTAITw0QRRhymwrELOUmPrrj1rrk/s1600/sox_jun18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUZ4tXtmEe_FgaIdgwKNPtj8KqNVCYNVMyV2ktcuFAOaZu3uwp6yt_FgmPV4buovwEBNcNpG78tiCsQm73jDStwnTdM-cNqcF0xqey3WPM-91_b3gqPmvLbzrQSV2M0QAJ7IZ7sXLTgV5o0dmi3Bz17LFtSTAITw0QRRhymwrELOUmPrrj1rrk/s1600/sox_jun18.png"/></a></div>
<p>There are too many big divergences taking place with Semiconductors blasting higher and Bitcoin fading lower. Other indices are caught in the middle, but playing the movers-and-shakers gives near term traders the opportunity for profits, but there is little here for long term investors.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-37157201204409825902026-06-16T23:19:39.657+01:002026-06-16T23:19:39.657+01:00Tweezer Top In Equal Weight S&P - Double Top Semiconductors<p>Back from holiday, and indices flash another round of topping patterns following earlier patterns which were breached, so while one could go short, you don't want to be holding if pattern highs are breached. While I missed the annoucement, the real shocker was the multi-decade lows posted by the Consumer Sentiment Survey - perhaps one of the few legitimate data points that can be trusted. In the past, this has been a bullish signal as the low in sentiment preceeded the low in markets - but markets are at multi-year highs, so I have no idea what will come next.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_JFvAiKJjTFiUWYjhynoNN3U2gRfpYJwN-MqnqlnM8QmNwKbXtSxRm7NLrpvGa5YJoJ47zTKdXikUWAK6EddFK2ibBuMgTwJ2uIxqGmHm1fuT6Y9O_MGq_xrxgHsxb0rTbGQFKUORSrEF7R8hYFXFqPhpQnuiiVNh66ZJFKmRXgej2lds2ksx/s1240/uscment_jun16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="600" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_JFvAiKJjTFiUWYjhynoNN3U2gRfpYJwN-MqnqlnM8QmNwKbXtSxRm7NLrpvGa5YJoJ47zTKdXikUWAK6EddFK2ibBuMgTwJ2uIxqGmHm1fuT6Y9O_MGq_xrxgHsxb0rTbGQFKUORSrEF7R8hYFXFqPhpQnuiiVNh66ZJFKmRXgej2lds2ksx/s600/uscment_jun16.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>Of the indices,we have a couple that are showing topping patterns, if going short then I wouldn't be holding if they go 1% beyond those highs. The more reliable pattern is the tweezer top in the equal weighted S&P. This is looking like a classic reversal play, so shorts have a decent opportunity here.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlL_y5bFInRTrvfUg6b8fRdUdug_hHkJxNjRJMcWpXcFhqCkRLdkVuA3k5CwKFDWSHuc7kqnpi_yia2WHu1dTWaCK7sxVX63F4ntiezIjpAWb9mwboq6-Z4L5e38bfgNiGCc_P9KXy3gayWgJ9L3_vE29ty-W6ySUkx6_dqgdm5p5qpl0HRSyg/s1600/spxew_jun16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlL_y5bFInRTrvfUg6b8fRdUdug_hHkJxNjRJMcWpXcFhqCkRLdkVuA3k5CwKFDWSHuc7kqnpi_yia2WHu1dTWaCK7sxVX63F4ntiezIjpAWb9mwboq6-Z4L5e38bfgNiGCc_P9KXy3gayWgJ9L3_vE29ty-W6ySUkx6_dqgdm5p5qpl0HRSyg/s1600/spxew_jun16.png"/></a></div>
<p>The S&P hasn't delivered a clear topping pattern, and hasn't yet reached its measured move target. There isn't much more to say about this.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhFFcNx6rp15VdV5VXzpRAzi0HdLCTGwn-MX9Nu43tPGcvyBYTAyN1wYvqOL2O1raPHlanAlTl56F5jpuMG_oFh9uYpzvIj7GX3h9WD3CWGuazOI-ax3442DEIGICvCBRRmeLx8lBJT6Os0T7zuc4OSTXaGgQQEbs4Io5L_HBahGkFPodKUZ0D/s1600/spx_jun16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhFFcNx6rp15VdV5VXzpRAzi0HdLCTGwn-MX9Nu43tPGcvyBYTAyN1wYvqOL2O1raPHlanAlTl56F5jpuMG_oFh9uYpzvIj7GX3h9WD3CWGuazOI-ax3442DEIGICvCBRRmeLx8lBJT6Os0T7zuc4OSTXaGgQQEbs4Io5L_HBahGkFPodKUZ0D/s1600/spx_jun16.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) continued its reversal off the bearish 'black' candlestick. I would view this as a weak signal as it's exhibiting solid step-by-step gains and offers the best risk-reward for longs.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnxABkNmNLGsFcGvalg3bhmJY5taytCE0EVCXsGp0hr5943WfhJmDCq5sfY1sw_iBbMysP96Rum9H4B4uDpfx8FJbbFNiVpFXzLCqd3wbjhyaXDgDzHlhIINtlDmpou5Bn8xN3NB24FhaTmJgxW0RutsU46jK9gWbaLuf1vcG1Kvz5moHCvwhf/s1600/iwm_jun16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnxABkNmNLGsFcGvalg3bhmJY5taytCE0EVCXsGp0hr5943WfhJmDCq5sfY1sw_iBbMysP96Rum9H4B4uDpfx8FJbbFNiVpFXzLCqd3wbjhyaXDgDzHlhIINtlDmpou5Bn8xN3NB24FhaTmJgxW0RutsU46jK9gWbaLuf1vcG1Kvz5moHCvwhf/s1600/iwm_jun16.png"/></a></div>
<p>Semiconductors are the other shorting opportunity. After successfully reaching its measured move target it's looking ready to make a move lower, although every potential shorting opportunity the index has presented has been blown away. Proceed with caution with the latest offering. There is a weak 'sell' signal in the MACD, and the ADX is in flux.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDuZp26OK8ocHIIDl_Y4ZvzwflGZ630lexJxEdc4gvoNhqnDcAN_CX-na2qmyencS-zxppZ9u6bJAjqEFeLtD_7PU1RW7yDVw485FrWc095ijHMlFfLZb1DuIQRhAlqRHvhr_Ia2Vs7MsYR7meA04oXrzDsAWNaYQZAUViBKoeiraIEBYeOxs5/s1600/SOX_jun16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDuZp26OK8ocHIIDl_Y4ZvzwflGZ630lexJxEdc4gvoNhqnDcAN_CX-na2qmyencS-zxppZ9u6bJAjqEFeLtD_7PU1RW7yDVw485FrWc095ijHMlFfLZb1DuIQRhAlqRHvhr_Ia2Vs7MsYR7meA04oXrzDsAWNaYQZAUViBKoeiraIEBYeOxs5/s1600/SOX_jun16.png"/></a></div>
<p>Another (better) shorting opportunity is Bitcoin. We have had the rejection of the 200-day MA, and now we are seeing a potential rejection of the 20-day MA after a weak bounce off the test of February lows. Only the MACD is offering a weak 'buy' signal.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZi3cnAK8a4Dc2nvsfd-mBGoQ4O1I3f2hK6qk_sYBZS-s1R9p4gKbiJ-NBcj3Jj8i0H25IOpM9hSwotSXNNSOwxEFQs4hKoU2dRPu86O3nHNHbWJ-a4dkIKzzOE28R9fInX_7S52bWGVOfJWcxlnGmafM5Gs4TKeldH2eVAjJonVx60qDYslU-/s1600/btcusd_jun16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZi3cnAK8a4Dc2nvsfd-mBGoQ4O1I3f2hK6qk_sYBZS-s1R9p4gKbiJ-NBcj3Jj8i0H25IOpM9hSwotSXNNSOwxEFQs4hKoU2dRPu86O3nHNHbWJ-a4dkIKzzOE28R9fInX_7S52bWGVOfJWcxlnGmafM5Gs4TKeldH2eVAjJonVx60qDYslU-/s1600/btcusd_jun16.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>For tomorrow, best trades look to be shorting Bitcoin or the equal-weighted S&P, where everything else is looking like a (long) hold.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-4604905573402611502026-06-02T23:06:35.770+01:002026-06-02T23:06:35.771+01:00Bitcoin Collapse Goes Against The Grain<p>Indices are all doing what good indices should in a bull market, but Bitcoin has taken a sharp move down following the rejection at the 200-day MA (and subsequent break of the 50-day MA). As to which side of the coin wins out remains to be seen, but given cryptos relationship to the tech sector it's hard to see how each could continue in their respective directions without at some point aligning.</p>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>Last week, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) staged a new breakout beyond $287 and then preceeded to trade in a narrow range on low volume. Expectation is for this to continue higher, but a loss of $287 would open up the potential for a 'bull trap' and set things for a move to $270. Technicals are net positive, but the MACD is shaping a bearish divergence.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAr4mI1wpWh9ekHpeW2fqXpM-gbEyLO5Zamx98MwAF_Qkt5HtMuU_9SvOtudIjQP3Sw2i9Gtvkh0oXvFccpLSEvI3kL4kR5dHgZzUrJ5KMet9yv6lprCgqmT-fMvlENM79kwvaB1ra9smfFK9kpjacnVKQT2jKV6WwkS25i4PUCt_78ccQ_EXJ/s1600/iwm_jun2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAr4mI1wpWh9ekHpeW2fqXpM-gbEyLO5Zamx98MwAF_Qkt5HtMuU_9SvOtudIjQP3Sw2i9Gtvkh0oXvFccpLSEvI3kL4kR5dHgZzUrJ5KMet9yv6lprCgqmT-fMvlENM79kwvaB1ra9smfFK9kpjacnVKQT2jKV6WwkS25i4PUCt_78ccQ_EXJ/s1600/iwm_jun2.png"/></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq reached yet another measured move target as the scale of gains becomes tighter. There is a MACD trigger 'sell' to work off, but other technicals are positive - on-balance-volume in particular. As of today's close, it's 16.5% above its 200-day MA, which keeps it in the 15% zone of historic price extremes, but not enough to be rushing to the exits.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCJgvo-gjZCZngDX0bxkpWGvFo88dexcM3yNCE6B6RlEtGLFk6xpMliokm-HGtmCoRWHqBpkjsCBxNPFXjBguYpbJE4WmO6p8dwLCKwzP_GmDu189XdmGtmzBbpV5olS5SM3mOmR5kjl0p-CrU9Yn5hOLRFmmAiRdX23pw3fOoJH8k0_Hlr-ua/s1600/compq_jun2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCJgvo-gjZCZngDX0bxkpWGvFo88dexcM3yNCE6B6RlEtGLFk6xpMliokm-HGtmCoRWHqBpkjsCBxNPFXjBguYpbJE4WmO6p8dwLCKwzP_GmDu189XdmGtmzBbpV5olS5SM3mOmR5kjl0p-CrU9Yn5hOLRFmmAiRdX23pw3fOoJH8k0_Hlr-ua/s1600/compq_jun2.png"/></a></div>
<p>The S&P hasn't quite reached its measured move target, but remains on course to do so. The MACD is showing a weak 'sell' trigger, but is likely to return as a 'buy' signal by the end of the week. I wouldn't take too much negativity from the extended underperformance against the Nasdaq, as bullish momentum has barely dropped outside 95(%) since the start of April.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtU_49lfHdwM5kVpvEsumI8_i5jbMS5qVBSc-7egDvCWdV7_F3i2boVvIsakfRuEQEEU0KuJf0caJCZqbBAd-FM2ii-rq0e9TBVFzbYx2r48stxoZDTrQ-_uVYG6mV3F38vqpYAzeJmQ49ht1c2WVRc8M8TyP-1ZOcXrm1PL1-6f5L9pjtN-_j/s1600/spx_jun2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtU_49lfHdwM5kVpvEsumI8_i5jbMS5qVBSc-7egDvCWdV7_F3i2boVvIsakfRuEQEEU0KuJf0caJCZqbBAd-FM2ii-rq0e9TBVFzbYx2r48stxoZDTrQ-_uVYG6mV3F38vqpYAzeJmQ49ht1c2WVRc8M8TyP-1ZOcXrm1PL1-6f5L9pjtN-_j/s1600/spx_jun2.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The equal-weighted S&P is climbing higher after it managed to clear April highs. It's about to see a relative shift in its favor vs the weighted S&P as money rotates into other S&P stocks.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnfTzpiMXmrUrMDOn_NArs497R7jJq_sA0M07TAmpKkQZop7_iLsD4o5woz5IYwgGyaYyPFkNEXQ3UrPaTj1XlpLSY5gLMnWU-z-OXmHEG5WTC5zL51h8-5g6QSUatXp9P3-JxbV5UQkcAax9WpysXwBfsVeVd_yDDQE80IywGZsgQL0YEc4na/s1600/spxew_jun2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnfTzpiMXmrUrMDOn_NArs497R7jJq_sA0M07TAmpKkQZop7_iLsD4o5woz5IYwgGyaYyPFkNEXQ3UrPaTj1XlpLSY5gLMnWU-z-OXmHEG5WTC5zL51h8-5g6QSUatXp9P3-JxbV5UQkcAax9WpysXwBfsVeVd_yDDQE80IywGZsgQL0YEc4na/s1600/spxew_jun2.png"/></a></div>
<p>Meanwhile the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 is making its move towards its measured move target, but it also finished the day on one of the more reliable candlestick patterns, the bearish harami cross - a reversal candlestick; a gap down tomorrow would confirm</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoXqROquFiJQsEhUK8kIKkmtRT0cUVyMdp873f3-yVvIQaUuhI1woPNq2MiQH678ilhMcahbZ9bIPdkAE4asPfoRIglAJ4Uo2G4UF-yv44qgEc9ZtgoVdp-8mVCEm0pETfIYi0HzsqGcmepyfBFHoZE__0nvrCQ1BcbOHn56PvXEbQIMaOOsQn/s1600/qqew_jun2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoXqROquFiJQsEhUK8kIKkmtRT0cUVyMdp873f3-yVvIQaUuhI1woPNq2MiQH678ilhMcahbZ9bIPdkAE4asPfoRIglAJ4Uo2G4UF-yv44qgEc9ZtgoVdp-8mVCEm0pETfIYi0HzsqGcmepyfBFHoZE__0nvrCQ1BcbOHn56PvXEbQIMaOOsQn/s1600/qqew_jun2.png"/></a></div>
<p>Semiconductors gained over 5%(!!) today. The gains in this index look ridiculous, and even if we consider where the next sell off could go, fib retracements suggest we could fall some way before congestion zones of support appear.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi04WaTagWL7TPwlMlDNhF05Jl7vtjdf26dVoKnqUPd0Uobtdk3uJyli33utCGaJiuLlbBms1zQFrmtkazbEp70U8pKR26O2FjWL4DPwiOdQlPIlYQolO7cU9tm2wGLahCslwCBA5oQZtJgdEkVgiX9idLxg13FNl953sVUcC9GKVduNeQd9sN9/s1600/Sox_jun2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi04WaTagWL7TPwlMlDNhF05Jl7vtjdf26dVoKnqUPd0Uobtdk3uJyli33utCGaJiuLlbBms1zQFrmtkazbEp70U8pKR26O2FjWL4DPwiOdQlPIlYQolO7cU9tm2wGLahCslwCBA5oQZtJgdEkVgiX9idLxg13FNl953sVUcC9GKVduNeQd9sN9/s1600/Sox_jun2.png"/></a></div>
<p>The fly in the ointment is Bitcoin. As other indices look to outdo each other (with gains), Bitcoin is falling through the floor. The real challenge will come in the weekly chart when it goes to test its 200-week MA, but it's hard to reconcile what's happening in the cryptocurrency on the daily timeframe relative to other indices.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7lExQm43DXqVdjtIUO3y4o1hDAwL_T9dWDt8J2p54hB5bmoM-Nn0mmjJQvxI3tRZirRB5R88DMHT6kuQOzepgN_TbojRz_ISiTphq8OnoacjXLmFQM4oy9ZkcmKSl42N0qpZJdT1Z4GqUVejQFhTM5ApcbuZ8qljp8wHIk8ugPlPo3rerRO1w/s1600/bitcoin_jun2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7lExQm43DXqVdjtIUO3y4o1hDAwL_T9dWDt8J2p54hB5bmoM-Nn0mmjJQvxI3tRZirRB5R88DMHT6kuQOzepgN_TbojRz_ISiTphq8OnoacjXLmFQM4oy9ZkcmKSl42N0qpZJdT1Z4GqUVejQFhTM5ApcbuZ8qljp8wHIk8ugPlPo3rerRO1w/s1600/bitcoin_jun2.png"/></a></div>
<p>Bitcoin is in a long term decline. I had thought the February capitulation would mark something worthwhile, but this proved not to be the case as it failed to get past its 200-day MA. These doubts will eventually seep to the indices, with the Semiconductors likely to be the first to suffer as weak-hands (buying over the last couple of weeks) get shaken out of their positions. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the safe haven that should benefit from any rotation out of Large Cap tech stocks, but if the next round of selling hits all indices equally, then the Russell 2000 will struggle to hold on, but will be the first to recover. When the next decline comes is anyone's guess, but it's likely close.</p>
<p>My next update will be week of June 15th. Will we see a decline by then?</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-83850933302021865012026-05-27T02:10:51.724+01:002026-05-27T02:32:41.946+01:00Russell 2000 Breakout and AI concerns<p>The long weekend has been kind to markets. The Russell 2000 finally joined lead indices with a breakout to new highs. The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger, but other technicals are bullish once more.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYgktIKDkEoDJDYK61GOZuIO-wOpst7KF3NRC0vkjy8tB55oj2SSRhK-njj7AIgi_pPE8Nm-IPU6gB9HhHkJ8Er_wpjFn_bp_ntsfN4w18L8nbBAO05ToBmtDAhzszBvaIMvEGtccmE0Xpn9TEdeis_JBJMNb0hT0R1X8A-NmJ2SjCt7kfhTVB/s1600/iwn_may26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYgktIKDkEoDJDYK61GOZuIO-wOpst7KF3NRC0vkjy8tB55oj2SSRhK-njj7AIgi_pPE8Nm-IPU6gB9HhHkJ8Er_wpjFn_bp_ntsfN4w18L8nbBAO05ToBmtDAhzszBvaIMvEGtccmE0Xpn9TEdeis_JBJMNb0hT0R1X8A-NmJ2SjCt7kfhTVB/s1600/iwn_may26.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P managed to post its breakout before the Memorial weekend, and added a little by today's close. We will want to see how 8.3K support holds on the next test, when - or if - it manages such a test. A retest of 8.3K would be a buying opportunity, but we need to be aware for the potential of a 'bull trap'</p>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVxxva6WHJ_SgqPH0OwlWWsDmDDyKOKbk4QH5YiISuYT0mRs3mnX5DWJJhCENZ2M4Xmm1CWgkdhScaI3asf4O6H1Oo52vorKfFKo_mh90yK8CcE4QvThpAk7RvGKe-iDXN7SrhskgajnXFiS9jBIycj9AJU559UOfncrQKASZ-tjjMHcct5xF2/s1600/spxew_may26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVxxva6WHJ_SgqPH0OwlWWsDmDDyKOKbk4QH5YiISuYT0mRs3mnX5DWJJhCENZ2M4Xmm1CWgkdhScaI3asf4O6H1Oo52vorKfFKo_mh90yK8CcE4QvThpAk7RvGKe-iDXN7SrhskgajnXFiS9jBIycj9AJU559UOfncrQKASZ-tjjMHcct5xF2/s1600/spxew_may26.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>Gains in the Russell 2000 are causing a relative strength shift away from the Nasdaq and S&P. The Nasdaq is on a MACD 'sell' trigger alongside that of the S&P.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinpM2mznVyJOTWlJ7dueK9eEcNclJwvkaQz8ByhrmC96YEsLAhNlt9Mrb5HaLRRuDVfh7D9C_Bw6fLO__Zjztv0TIZqcGK1NpwsEj3c2tAREdOE5AEEcV7dAYxlhpOUACLQyZ8hhmSYqpbu0G67q-uK6dNqadBXnDYqaE1uTJbeMqsMdK9kKTs/s1600/compq_may26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinpM2mznVyJOTWlJ7dueK9eEcNclJwvkaQz8ByhrmC96YEsLAhNlt9Mrb5HaLRRuDVfh7D9C_Bw6fLO__Zjztv0TIZqcGK1NpwsEj3c2tAREdOE5AEEcV7dAYxlhpOUACLQyZ8hhmSYqpbu0G67q-uK6dNqadBXnDYqaE1uTJbeMqsMdK9kKTs/s1600/compq_may26.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Semiconductor Index made yet another breakout, turning already extended technicals into new 'buy' signals. These gaps point to over extension, but it can be hard to jump off for FOMO. I have added a new measured move target as a result of the new gain, but for an entire sector to double in just a few months just isn't a fair evaluation. Like many, I have been making increased use of AI at work, but as a someone experienced in technical writing - where brevity and clarity are key to good writing - the verbosity of AI is a significant cost, and ultimately, a natural resource concern, that AI companies have little incentive to correct in the chase for profits. Studies have also shown models can work against their prompters, obfuscating their workings. Even if models didn't obfuscate their intentions, what they are doing may be hidden in plain sight behind the content deluge returned during processing. AI has given me the ability to solve coding problems I don't have the knowledge to do myself, but a what cost? I would be lying if I understood the hows, or picked through its reasoning as to how it got there. Or indeed, if any vulenerabilities were introduced from its self-generated checks? There will be increased pressure to roll out production level, AI generated code across sensitive sectors like financials, care and manufacturing. But is AI the fox that has been left to look after the chicken house... Go watch "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_%28Star_Trek:_The_Next_Generation%29">The Game</a>", Star Trek: The Next Generation, and frame it in the context of AI, and those who control it. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi8TbgoqfXjuUdj4ckO5oqCEUinQQvJ0pPox4yuvHJKg4njHy1Mqcs8uenHbMjcQtN1L7tk2dy00Nrjd6dZiIteRlFqtl-_D2oOIYBaT_JpwO0j0xYww1bE9b4ozgrqb7_PhrbbpJFrN29CbZv2SaUIma_JCDVFb-AIAtHvG5BXSHaTEInqwII/s1600/sox_may26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi8TbgoqfXjuUdj4ckO5oqCEUinQQvJ0pPox4yuvHJKg4njHy1Mqcs8uenHbMjcQtN1L7tk2dy00Nrjd6dZiIteRlFqtl-_D2oOIYBaT_JpwO0j0xYww1bE9b4ozgrqb7_PhrbbpJFrN29CbZv2SaUIma_JCDVFb-AIAtHvG5BXSHaTEInqwII/s1600/sox_may26.png"/></a></div>
<p>Going back to price action, the Bitcoin recovery looks to be stalling out. Today's selling brought it back to breakout support, undercutting the 50-day MA in the process. The next move here is likely to be lower as technicals remain predominantly bearish.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxL9V_Qk4ywu_NSUx7nKb2IsLLSZ4X0DGYEaFpHEg2E8Qtl6ibO6DuzASe-fSTeUoX3pCOopkk0J_TKGkhWXmKOc7eu9bf3v2Vejtu7ANzURBBlssBYkt1ZYrMoPzmGuhOOew06Nw0o_tND1yL4NB5WFZUb7PiZnY4mJ6WRgkL3VQvpQ9x00-N/s1600/btcusd_may26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxL9V_Qk4ywu_NSUx7nKb2IsLLSZ4X0DGYEaFpHEg2E8Qtl6ibO6DuzASe-fSTeUoX3pCOopkk0J_TKGkhWXmKOc7eu9bf3v2Vejtu7ANzURBBlssBYkt1ZYrMoPzmGuhOOew06Nw0o_tND1yL4NB5WFZUb7PiZnY4mJ6WRgkL3VQvpQ9x00-N/s1600/btcusd_may26.png"/></a></div>
<p>For the tech rally optimists, look to Nasdaq breadth metrics. The last major top in 2021 was driven by bearish divergences across these metrics, following breadth peaks in the early part of the year. Currently, we are not even close to marking such peaks, and it could be 12-18 months before we do - and then, it could be another 6 months from there before we see a decline in the Nasdaq. Who knows where Semiconductors may be then...</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ9uD1k1YB9IVo-Enq43TzjqYo8fCRimvz2l5YeeVH6tpDOt3-8DHcZ7GYPQdCyEYCblIEfmmevowg3bZ0VD6HYDjxKH4IedFkdAP7kzZ3SDpIAJcwJ3_ILrqDVGTkYqvzyqZCQIktN5BTz2pdErHm11Gr6YRn8S4pRrfy5VXgP8RaeT-Ud1Im/s1600/nasi_may27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ9uD1k1YB9IVo-Enq43TzjqYo8fCRimvz2l5YeeVH6tpDOt3-8DHcZ7GYPQdCyEYCblIEfmmevowg3bZ0VD6HYDjxKH4IedFkdAP7kzZ3SDpIAJcwJ3_ILrqDVGTkYqvzyqZCQIktN5BTz2pdErHm11Gr6YRn8S4pRrfy5VXgP8RaeT-Ud1Im/s1600/nasi_may27.png"/></a></div>
<p>There is increasing talk of a major top in markets, but I'm not entirely convinced given the recency of fresh breakouts, particularly for the Russell 2000, but we need to be aware of the possibility for 'bull traps'. Maybe Semiconductors have been mispriced, but not to the extent we are seeing in recent months; expect the hangover to be painful.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-21732574851267818512026-05-20T22:36:34.101+01:002026-05-20T22:39:54.264+01:00Buyers Defend Support On Higher Volume Accumulation<p>After a couple of weeks of selling, buyers decided to step in and reverse the near term trend. Buying volume stepped up in confirmed accumulation. It was a good trade for those who took advantage, and it's increasingly looking like new trading ranges will come out of this.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had a support level to work with, but will likely find resistance at its 20-day MA.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyXn-u78vHEEN3R5pb3Vk5NyKfhJCFa6JQPdUdn5syp90f7EaaJ2qA66Av4errUxpsrXdIxJTpL0FiwkOBftENdmugxYM5I4O8inTEeHsafhYz4opZVHqcmWrpwJ8aUyIVELH5wRc1hjUTy37XHYPUgCk1NOzC_n65Y_oKUG4Y8wL_XRlBBZiH/s1600/iwm_may20b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyXn-u78vHEEN3R5pb3Vk5NyKfhJCFa6JQPdUdn5syp90f7EaaJ2qA66Av4errUxpsrXdIxJTpL0FiwkOBftENdmugxYM5I4O8inTEeHsafhYz4opZVHqcmWrpwJ8aUyIVELH5wRc1hjUTy37XHYPUgCk1NOzC_n65Y_oKUG4Y8wL_XRlBBZiH/s1600/iwm_may20b.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>I had mentioned Bitcoin yesterday, and while it didn't post the gains of other indices, it could have a big day tomorrow.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZzLfMCKn4PPcLZ9gNsXT8yGc9jUsMGgK2V7MWA-U9l3zzEP5eVwnxeqIruseu6QoS-DIHVVoQnMTz8GSWXnKAJ4PRerMKX06vOkdlmltOLCJgsaL0d2jzAd3bVLKKDuH05gX5U0yQdzIQFwPZjB8aLHR0DDOSa_iJ_jQ7wgm2bpydF-PDUING/s1600/btcuusd_may20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZzLfMCKn4PPcLZ9gNsXT8yGc9jUsMGgK2V7MWA-U9l3zzEP5eVwnxeqIruseu6QoS-DIHVVoQnMTz8GSWXnKAJ4PRerMKX06vOkdlmltOLCJgsaL0d2jzAd3bVLKKDuH05gX5U0yQdzIQFwPZjB8aLHR0DDOSa_iJ_jQ7wgm2bpydF-PDUING/s1600/btcuusd_may20.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The equal-weighted S&P finished on a solid bullish engulfing pattern, and this could become a nice breakout for those looking to get in before 8.3K is challenged.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXoKalkvY9Y1n5XdZcmIdtSROsX2KS-MuHBP1LzHRIpJd45PcqEfYbu1hzolZq5GTAIrUlvXSD6sz-fz-_uR-re9Y2wq7V-GOmzwk1d304ym6WZ3GoFUpl_jwAbF1jUUVM_5VTwZE37NrsFirZ6s_hNJo55t1eYtLOjWVScQWTQtWGSWrMNWPM/s1600/spxew_may20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXoKalkvY9Y1n5XdZcmIdtSROsX2KS-MuHBP1LzHRIpJd45PcqEfYbu1hzolZq5GTAIrUlvXSD6sz-fz-_uR-re9Y2wq7V-GOmzwk1d304ym6WZ3GoFUpl_jwAbF1jUUVM_5VTwZE37NrsFirZ6s_hNJo55t1eYtLOjWVScQWTQtWGSWrMNWPM/s1600/spxew_may20.png"/></a></div>
<p>Similar story for the Dow Industrial Average.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW3eWQJ7TfV9EmdBZbsKPzcdimORlx3w5O6bzm1M4IQIQss9UF1fJBYNuoSfHdkCm1JEaZ_TxfXoLvdr6IpNQx0l_SmdB-9jqofWpQ8vQOd6wjapR1M-ZoHC5N2IVhf_A1L12yMIyLVrN6W25_B2uxgu0yw35sn_q8iVRm5b906_SgRK6qS9aw/s1600/djia_may20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW3eWQJ7TfV9EmdBZbsKPzcdimORlx3w5O6bzm1M4IQIQss9UF1fJBYNuoSfHdkCm1JEaZ_TxfXoLvdr6IpNQx0l_SmdB-9jqofWpQ8vQOd6wjapR1M-ZoHC5N2IVhf_A1L12yMIyLVrN6W25_B2uxgu0yw35sn_q8iVRm5b906_SgRK6qS9aw/s1600/djia_may20.png"/></a></div>
<p>But the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 delivered on a breakout.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYYxAtK4SNVpsvuTnPBYm0sk_rCOsCN_Jxu_TqWoZ2UIQxeG2FVLhgiiFnoAXIo6jFU_lgaMMSmpkgbDs-2sv-Gw1LLNrZ9WC_Xx8DxnLmSt3V6HS5sC69vtry5OF7Wv-HGw6y5t84e4aVv4vkOXFMRRFUU3egQ4P7Duf3VQcA6N16vHJQyeoH/s1600/qqew_may20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYYxAtK4SNVpsvuTnPBYm0sk_rCOsCN_Jxu_TqWoZ2UIQxeG2FVLhgiiFnoAXIo6jFU_lgaMMSmpkgbDs-2sv-Gw1LLNrZ9WC_Xx8DxnLmSt3V6HS5sC69vtry5OF7Wv-HGw6y5t84e4aVv4vkOXFMRRFUU3egQ4P7Duf3VQcA6N16vHJQyeoH/s1600/qqew_may20.png"/></a></div>
<p>Given what has gone for the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100, I would be looking for the same from the equal-weighted S&P and Dow Industrial, with further step gains for Bitcoin.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-31227562421345502232026-05-19T22:22:32.198+01:002026-05-19T22:22:32.198+01:00Market Selling Continues As Trading Ranges Establish<p>Markets continue their slow down, but without the panic that many were expecting. Volume continues to slide with distribution the order of the day but all indices have support levels to work with.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is back at the April swing low, and just above the January swing high. This is a natural level to look for support that could offer a new trading range. It may take the approach of the 50-day MA to actually deliver the next rally, but there is time available before this happens. Technicals are mostly negative, but not particularly bad.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwTPGvRsii_pEBCw0e1X7c0DlfoTkHbyqiknrM25ZM5XgLg8ofbFO2-f_Vb9L7QsB3V_Fla3IGX9N5z-NytXkwe-llIIplHpB-MziXWySr-WGMhVznDMsFTEsBzmflyyMxrm_ojddwev7PrgRqKU8LFgjXGGWfrM-1VEFhHWlUKaY22jo6O6P5/s1600/iwm_may19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwTPGvRsii_pEBCw0e1X7c0DlfoTkHbyqiknrM25ZM5XgLg8ofbFO2-f_Vb9L7QsB3V_Fla3IGX9N5z-NytXkwe-llIIplHpB-MziXWySr-WGMhVznDMsFTEsBzmflyyMxrm_ojddwev7PrgRqKU8LFgjXGGWfrM-1VEFhHWlUKaY22jo6O6P5/s1600/iwm_may19.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>There was only a modest loss for the S&P as it approaches its 20-day MA; look for buyers there. Today saw a 'weak' buy signal, but other technicals - momentum in particular - are bullish.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjauowScQ6yENouwDzDOYdrb8OHQ-fl5AGLzy0gvZkY_ZsSQkY_cgszFvpu4mP8Y629UTtJujFMv9XoaJNhyAplArytdAgstyX13VU-dq_N5pi00XDcv-F0HAmq_9cNdFxt1y-7QCk1-O-lGwFaZ1Mu9ngkZMDZZSlNuM5Jk8lK5T2p68u5LPTI/s1600/spx_may19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjauowScQ6yENouwDzDOYdrb8OHQ-fl5AGLzy0gvZkY_ZsSQkY_cgszFvpu4mP8Y629UTtJujFMv9XoaJNhyAplArytdAgstyX13VU-dq_N5pi00XDcv-F0HAmq_9cNdFxt1y-7QCk1-O-lGwFaZ1Mu9ngkZMDZZSlNuM5Jk8lK5T2p68u5LPTI/s1600/spx_may19.png"/></a></div>
<p>Ditto for the Nasdaq</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqBP8zCxM0SXqPupSGNWUT-ycTZ27GJdUeYXhFjUOXrqXHNK60q8pJdm3BoGAo8AVSnUZR_t28H8E0ghhiYxj6Mij0jmw3i7tqh2igWHlm7XFX4kMJDfhSvEVBJTEbIRKRfIHTU1GyMCNgyIo0_LYekAF_txRkdQpw1Q7EXgDcmJ-5Om9JmWll/s1600/compq_may19b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqBP8zCxM0SXqPupSGNWUT-ycTZ27GJdUeYXhFjUOXrqXHNK60q8pJdm3BoGAo8AVSnUZR_t28H8E0ghhiYxj6Mij0jmw3i7tqh2igWHlm7XFX4kMJDfhSvEVBJTEbIRKRfIHTU1GyMCNgyIo0_LYekAF_txRkdQpw1Q7EXgDcmJ-5Om9JmWll/s1600/compq_may19b.png"/></a></div>
<p>But it may yet again fall to Bitcoin to offer the long trade. I'm liking the converged test of the 50-day MA and 76K support. Technicals are mostly bearish, but not strongly so.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbvA7bVNGpfy4a8C0IJ-DnLht_ANw9uVOG4XfbFtYjV6EgiiZViPI9I8K5A6uuRMhu96wOFxEpAPV45R3TRQz5Bbb_Dxn9tq_UCS1_BFYv_iJGCxuWqLpxXLwJxEofCa2o-fCgOsQyLETZn7g-3m8_qed1AYK2_mOgu-O87Atu-Ev1uezWcG4S/s1600/btcusd_may19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbvA7bVNGpfy4a8C0IJ-DnLht_ANw9uVOG4XfbFtYjV6EgiiZViPI9I8K5A6uuRMhu96wOFxEpAPV45R3TRQz5Bbb_Dxn9tq_UCS1_BFYv_iJGCxuWqLpxXLwJxEofCa2o-fCgOsQyLETZn7g-3m8_qed1AYK2_mOgu-O87Atu-Ev1uezWcG4S/s1600/btcusd_may19.png"/></a></div>
<p>Shorts have the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100. This resistance squeeze will deliver near term panic selling if today's lows are breached.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmcuVhDUFKH9cqc0N0Y4Iy7wp1zYdS6pBYK4do6HYiP6BGD4Y2zi4R-5onXv0XVsJMWwyQFFb9Ql7hW_EzypdPY_TBOuUX4wniT_UUH5gd34M_y70KQ3V4UZhkgmCsgGbB6_ARfkJ1-y69nBgbP3SHXlslrI1TUyYXue3F1pmBJi22pW0SU2wc/s1600/qqew_may19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmcuVhDUFKH9cqc0N0Y4Iy7wp1zYdS6pBYK4do6HYiP6BGD4Y2zi4R-5onXv0XVsJMWwyQFFb9Ql7hW_EzypdPY_TBOuUX4wniT_UUH5gd34M_y70KQ3V4UZhkgmCsgGbB6_ARfkJ1-y69nBgbP3SHXlslrI1TUyYXue3F1pmBJi22pW0SU2wc/s1600/qqew_may19.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>Indices are governed by broader trends and those trends are bullish. Counter trades are available, but you need to be nimble to not get caught up by the next wave of buying. It all feels rather exhaustive, with the exception of the Russell 2000 and Bitcoin.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72610725675915055802026-05-17T20:45:24.619+01:002026-05-17T20:45:24.619+01:00Sellers Appear As Options Expiration Clouds Volume<p>We had some decent selling across markets on higher volume, that would register as distribution on a normal day, but on options expiration the true picture is a little cloudier. While this selling looks to be damaging, follow through is needed if it's to evolve into something bigger.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) edged back to former handle resistance, turned support, which is also where the 20-day MA can be found. Another day of selling would take it far enough away from this support to leave it looking at the 50-day MA as its probable next step. There was a weak MACD trigger 'sell' as other technicals have held up well despite the index peaking in early May. The relative underperformance against the Nasdaq looks worse than it is, but even if this recovers a little there may be sufficient merit to see buyers come in on money rotation.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnU0KtInXLvj27Wun-7b-L00c9zInIoHzO3JmV1GrrmEmNkSDkkY9zeYvMA1Ew-05g3TQGz0lBpKMWD4rcaGAioYI5vqz7F6YkQNJZWsKbXs_VyQKOupWWiWHkpI-ds2npF4SCnKPmItOT-UuZ7aDbr3-g53ux88DIUJXhFa6-wRUvoo7r23Kn/s1600/iwm_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnU0KtInXLvj27Wun-7b-L00c9zInIoHzO3JmV1GrrmEmNkSDkkY9zeYvMA1Ew-05g3TQGz0lBpKMWD4rcaGAioYI5vqz7F6YkQNJZWsKbXs_VyQKOupWWiWHkpI-ds2npF4SCnKPmItOT-UuZ7aDbr3-g53ux88DIUJXhFa6-wRUvoo7r23Kn/s1600/iwm_may17.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>With the weekly chart pointing to a possible 'bull trap' and short play? It has been interesting to see the sharp drop in trade volume since the March lows.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1PROZET_2RDg_eL3KBrB2T3gJqr0T2pFMYahHt37dlG7BUgPNpYbY83bV_N1oFpmaJBD8GeUZPkxWkhEtdxBDQer7oSCOy71rHEf_lxGZgKVS_LV38A1vDDI4cOiTvvD2sheLfJYz9z1lO32ROAM_gKGlx7g3uwntmoMH6KWhP-WbspqqeBG/s1600/iwn_may17w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1PROZET_2RDg_eL3KBrB2T3gJqr0T2pFMYahHt37dlG7BUgPNpYbY83bV_N1oFpmaJBD8GeUZPkxWkhEtdxBDQer7oSCOy71rHEf_lxGZgKVS_LV38A1vDDI4cOiTvvD2sheLfJYz9z1lO32ROAM_gKGlx7g3uwntmoMH6KWhP-WbspqqeBG/s1600/iwn_may17w.png"/></a></div>
<p>In contrast, selling was not as intense in the S&P, and given its prior gain, barely registers as a drop. Technicals remain net bullish.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT-AjpRKqq2d8OFuKbN3Klv0KFP-aMwxp0ZmKAPHtSGdFU8BDtfa1HPHrfY2_-K69qjuGhJXmcUKyl5W79VV5o5NFDsEQxnW6Hza4vzSO978b_WdXJXLp7yPmvpU_72vnP-BHbBP-pGYpFiTKJvTZphekfGKcp8KsP-yZ0bgQyJ3A5pp7zDzr2/s1600/spx_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT-AjpRKqq2d8OFuKbN3Klv0KFP-aMwxp0ZmKAPHtSGdFU8BDtfa1HPHrfY2_-K69qjuGhJXmcUKyl5W79VV5o5NFDsEQxnW6Hza4vzSO978b_WdXJXLp7yPmvpU_72vnP-BHbBP-pGYpFiTKJvTZphekfGKcp8KsP-yZ0bgQyJ3A5pp7zDzr2/s1600/spx_may17.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>But the picture for the equal-weighted S&P looks a little different. Friday's selling was not high in percentage loss terms, but the solid red candlestick on the undercut of the 20-day MA looks ugly, and has the potential to be ugly. Monday's trading will be significant.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghSQClZ32N8zP4tYWopt2mc4U4DjMESMnz1pD71niBeuNz927E9wbbH38BbG5P8Ki_boNx9DLUYUkTjiyHHubWdJUkixhDE27T6Bn8VAqyxIlORqoMdDVniNMZeQ9fMDTFyZ5TNUzyV4SWl70DndcqZFes02egFU3U2_xImwUq1am-kdnZAoNp/s1600/spxew_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghSQClZ32N8zP4tYWopt2mc4U4DjMESMnz1pD71niBeuNz927E9wbbH38BbG5P8Ki_boNx9DLUYUkTjiyHHubWdJUkixhDE27T6Bn8VAqyxIlORqoMdDVniNMZeQ9fMDTFyZ5TNUzyV4SWl70DndcqZFes02egFU3U2_xImwUq1am-kdnZAoNp/s1600/spxew_may17.png"/></a></div>
<p>Not too much to say about the Nasdaq, but Bitcoin is getting squeezed by its 200-day MA and fast approaching 50-day MA. An undercut of the 50-day MA that also reverses the breakout might be a reason to go short. Technicals remain mostly bullish but you can see the bullish momentum (stochastics) fade in strength.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuaHdmk2EtlmcKjP8mue0Hc_v5GlfnpLsz0WBgy8lipz_76OEmW2mvjyoMvUA0heqqUKWxYuB2fbGe16cXoXkV4bzp8Z0Q6y55q6ikS5f2zNRpQ9vezHBPH1oc0Ou_RJl88d8YEZYNLJJ0P3t0X_nRieJJrRtSVqu2XMuR2EzTHZpBhMzLgLUk/s1600/btcusd_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuaHdmk2EtlmcKjP8mue0Hc_v5GlfnpLsz0WBgy8lipz_76OEmW2mvjyoMvUA0heqqUKWxYuB2fbGe16cXoXkV4bzp8Z0Q6y55q6ikS5f2zNRpQ9vezHBPH1oc0Ou_RJl88d8YEZYNLJJ0P3t0X_nRieJJrRtSVqu2XMuR2EzTHZpBhMzLgLUk/s1600/btcusd_may17.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Dow Industrial Average finished on 20-day MA support, but an open belos this moving average could offer a day-trade-short. Volume climbed to register potential distribution.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJEMIDhWE-ihGFv9QnPs7MeJauFrRgJhRF0BZfkL2MkHDIeLU7YycckczpwfYwd6gZKKv8BOY1-IHlbj1FJsvrQNwZ9sZIpv3r0oHtuWKa1iRRSUfS31sYlzF2ApDRKKz8gNhacjpVNjbNioy60_rEzKSYsNyUId_3W-f4J4sJMCuOzTDWDGBE/s1600/indu_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJEMIDhWE-ihGFv9QnPs7MeJauFrRgJhRF0BZfkL2MkHDIeLU7YycckczpwfYwd6gZKKv8BOY1-IHlbj1FJsvrQNwZ9sZIpv3r0oHtuWKa1iRRSUfS31sYlzF2ApDRKKz8gNhacjpVNjbNioy60_rEzKSYsNyUId_3W-f4J4sJMCuOzTDWDGBE/s1600/indu_may17.png"/></a></div>
<p>Tomorrow looks like a day where we could get another day's worth of selling, but given the strength of the rally off March lows there is probably an appetite for buyers to give indices one more shot of long buying. If you want to play short then you need to be aggressive with your stops to protect the position and any profits generated, because buyers will hit indices hard when they come in.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-33946324492729074542026-05-14T22:08:17.621+01:002026-05-14T22:08:17.621+01:00Bitcoin Pressures 200-day MA With Further Gains Likely<p>It's natural for an undercut test of a 200-day MA to reverse on the test, but Bitcoin has been lingering at the moving average with a higher volume accumulation gain. If you took profits, no loss, but with the successful test of the 20-day MA there may be a chance for new traders to jump in, and those with existing profits to roll it a little further.</p>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga1lHIBWFPUncAAAVkbcbgGhaD4xdo-LLPQBTmZdtwElpqsGQWhBb1P8JkXCYIx2atEjavrOjwjh0bZo_tiCrwkZJncgJwBARKF4ql2oh13J7DXIg0Yw_jEMl4PL7pe5FtddbABWi9MIo7abK803kaHMMl71yDBombzhuqcUcNPIbLUpeOBz9L/s1600/btcusd_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga1lHIBWFPUncAAAVkbcbgGhaD4xdo-LLPQBTmZdtwElpqsGQWhBb1P8JkXCYIx2atEjavrOjwjh0bZo_tiCrwkZJncgJwBARKF4ql2oh13J7DXIg0Yw_jEMl4PL7pe5FtddbABWi9MIo7abK803kaHMMl71yDBombzhuqcUcNPIbLUpeOBz9L/s1600/btcusd_may14.png"/></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><p>An index looking ready to break higher is the equal-weighted S&P. The 'bull flag' broke higher to a second test of the 8,300 in a matter of weeks, and a third test overall. Three tests is usually enough to deliver a breakout, and today's modest white candlestick from the 20-day MA is looking like a bullish play in the making. There is a weak 'sell' MACD sell, as other technicals are positive.</p>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIs7udOlbWCMbpPYeGzB0-pT6DfLJuF_mqLWkW-xloA3QTbD1wMvsyYZ7qVx6_p9YhQNevBVbWXPzG0jGM17iiQAea_gHp1gKCOIdXs0-CpjueWRphOtPuLwo_tuvlN1E9NZqk04k3fCCn1m14GbZQqH6XYpqByNOziK1Px7W8kFHohlLmX2xc/s1600/spxew_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIs7udOlbWCMbpPYeGzB0-pT6DfLJuF_mqLWkW-xloA3QTbD1wMvsyYZ7qVx6_p9YhQNevBVbWXPzG0jGM17iiQAea_gHp1gKCOIdXs0-CpjueWRphOtPuLwo_tuvlN1E9NZqk04k3fCCn1m14GbZQqH6XYpqByNOziK1Px7W8kFHohlLmX2xc/s1600/spxew_may14.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Nasdaq is fast approaching its latest measured move target.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjex2gTi42DfmTXUo9_G47WD9df8_V-xkgK5SZVMVG1dK8tbBhiY1mqy93WpFkwmgjYKEE8hoVAOR3NaovKpsS0XFfUVauB8_SQdxrUNj5yeW-rEGTGt-P0X_tgZvy20Och0NaFPxrQoQPhT6ZAPAWdUhUuqp2ao9Am5APzsUaz_s6rVrw9U_xn/s1600/compq_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjex2gTi42DfmTXUo9_G47WD9df8_V-xkgK5SZVMVG1dK8tbBhiY1mqy93WpFkwmgjYKEE8hoVAOR3NaovKpsS0XFfUVauB8_SQdxrUNj5yeW-rEGTGt-P0X_tgZvy20Och0NaFPxrQoQPhT6ZAPAWdUhUuqp2ao9Am5APzsUaz_s6rVrw9U_xn/s1600/compq_may14.png"/></a></div>
<p>But Nasdaq metrics are slowly rolling over. The Nassdaq Summation Index is a reliable reversal marker, and this is signalling a top.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg_mr5LgNv1vmXcE4o3XUIqvhmHbph7gmyOW1x6i6LDuqZiB2p1zdrwIJZZcOpPrOkr9h2ZBCAjOw7kK0f9Qbf9P4SI-lz-PSZpjSF3NCtC-uWIJ2ayjFzSc-qzdmHDy7TMRCc7cLfeIcrlQL9hIzyUOCHnogj2TQDvN1TrT296TgzovSxznQJ/s1600/nasi_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg_mr5LgNv1vmXcE4o3XUIqvhmHbph7gmyOW1x6i6LDuqZiB2p1zdrwIJZZcOpPrOkr9h2ZBCAjOw7kK0f9Qbf9P4SI-lz-PSZpjSF3NCtC-uWIJ2ayjFzSc-qzdmHDy7TMRCc7cLfeIcrlQL9hIzyUOCHnogj2TQDvN1TrT296TgzovSxznQJ/s1600/nasi_may14.png"/></a></div>
<p>Nasdaq bullish percents are rolling over too, but are not overbought.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbPYwqQ-PuRAn046NefpD297gVAUxIvp-btVwKOafjh4-KnQkKYr_S81SoY5lfHCxtWywpMs1w_1sQLyMs6XoKcUMGKSllgegRooenQMZ4TV3EPE9yf-4YgKiLHOJ7eOmRNQZw4pXOKIA_faV1ZEuNlFhDz_RqN6d5ruhKkeBkkPETorETpF6U/s1600/bpcompq_may15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbPYwqQ-PuRAn046NefpD297gVAUxIvp-btVwKOafjh4-KnQkKYr_S81SoY5lfHCxtWywpMs1w_1sQLyMs6XoKcUMGKSllgegRooenQMZ4TV3EPE9yf-4YgKiLHOJ7eOmRNQZw4pXOKIA_faV1ZEuNlFhDz_RqN6d5ruhKkeBkkPETorETpF6U/s1600/bpcompq_may15.png"/></a></div>
<p>However, the equal weighted Nasdaq 100 is pressuring resistance and is set for a breakout. Today registered as an accumulation day. So while Nasdaq breadth metrics are signalling a possible top, the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 is only at the start of a possible bull market breakout.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgDDSAgvrtIeTVdDv_knvhxc8N9oCCpMrjzcrsj68imOxLSQESZHeNdNLHIEryTPaRCaW_t7NitARLohYEz3hm3XktXtmW1tG9AZWMHo6A8mcLZQo6geji8-OeyEql_I8OAT8E-b7Lo3l92pVY4flJ72yzikjh6ggBpY2WC5N7wbCJK9H6kOTT/s1600/qqew_may15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgDDSAgvrtIeTVdDv_knvhxc8N9oCCpMrjzcrsj68imOxLSQESZHeNdNLHIEryTPaRCaW_t7NitARLohYEz3hm3XktXtmW1tG9AZWMHo6A8mcLZQo6geji8-OeyEql_I8OAT8E-b7Lo3l92pVY4flJ72yzikjh6ggBpY2WC5N7wbCJK9H6kOTT/s1600/qqew_may15.png"/></a></div>
<p>Finally, the Dow Industrial Average is pressuring resistance on mixed technicals. On-Balance-Volume is turning higher on confirmed accumulation, backed by strong momentum. Only the MACD is indecisive.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWsO-_poLCsCOvtgm-JTmYC-UaMoi2oLEU7bAfo8-8ZXSL_Ld08ukxdSIA6alSoNRq5BGouNu4B6n6Rqmxvsqr-vfj1D-H-CdxkS9iz_6rMjvplouWUztamQl2EkT2jz8KszVLV-mFY0xf8RsPSvak7ferCSypWA5uA6-B1HuyisnONDF3mNca/s1600/indu_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWsO-_poLCsCOvtgm-JTmYC-UaMoi2oLEU7bAfo8-8ZXSL_Ld08ukxdSIA6alSoNRq5BGouNu4B6n6Rqmxvsqr-vfj1D-H-CdxkS9iz_6rMjvplouWUztamQl2EkT2jz8KszVLV-mFY0xf8RsPSvak7ferCSypWA5uA6-B1HuyisnONDF3mNca/s1600/indu_may14.png"/></a></div>
<p>We still have bullish setups to take advantage of, despite the late stage of rallies off lows. Trading volume has been trending higher since April lows and remains in confirmed accumulation. Until we see a shift towards distribution, there is no immediate need to be a seller, although profit taking never hurt.</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-85557391404267957342026-05-12T22:38:37.312+01:002026-05-12T22:38:37.312+01:00Russell 2000 Offers Steady Gains On Successful Backtest<p>Semiconductor stocks are hogging all the limelight with their Y2K sized gains, but there is quiet strength in other indices with the foundation for more.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 eptimizes this best after breaking from it narrow handle it has managed a successful test of that handle - now support - with a combined test of its 20-day MA, topped off with a 'bullish hammer'. Technicals are net positive, although the MACD is about to trigger a weak 'sell' trigger. If there is a negative, it's that since the breakout, the heavier volume trading days have favored distribution, but the nature of the trend is still positive.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzzpl-CyFlnkKWndgZYrn_iJfmqMWLCheAwzanED2yUAYyNuhG7TIgukh0im4akZ_TuR18Ac4f3_pH8veASfsZzMJ80CR7lJC_XQECw5Hb6jwsbH3eeP1M-M0iekJpybXb9qVxmtuYPffDb7qPXXzU6xvxnKUK4Wz5lWSUGXgTYZZ5NEOhb8G8/s1600/iwm_may12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzzpl-CyFlnkKWndgZYrn_iJfmqMWLCheAwzanED2yUAYyNuhG7TIgukh0im4akZ_TuR18Ac4f3_pH8veASfsZzMJ80CR7lJC_XQECw5Hb6jwsbH3eeP1M-M0iekJpybXb9qVxmtuYPffDb7qPXXzU6xvxnKUK4Wz5lWSUGXgTYZZ5NEOhb8G8/s1600/iwm_may12.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 has the potential to follow the lead of the S&P, that had a similar 'handle' breakout, and is on course to reach its measured move target following the break of 7K. Here, the heavier volume days have gone with bulls and rank as accumulation days. Although even here, we can see a vast underperformance relative to the Nasdaq.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmZ1bq78jKJEYNyf8smEakzlp3Y3IT4wYaXK2Tlg3obRYvg5L6tMGdcRFr0sNM3M8xNnk-P_2ALFz1zyI1LJVuU1YQ6sBv1eHvp4uKox1Wt16wJs2jTCQcWes4bkujfg8xE9hL4nbaZHP6KVfIR5rO7hFhjJYEJpGeTSb1vPyt-FTgnqqgMJ0q/s1600/spx_may12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmZ1bq78jKJEYNyf8smEakzlp3Y3IT4wYaXK2Tlg3obRYvg5L6tMGdcRFr0sNM3M8xNnk-P_2ALFz1zyI1LJVuU1YQ6sBv1eHvp4uKox1Wt16wJs2jTCQcWes4bkujfg8xE9hL4nbaZHP6KVfIR5rO7hFhjJYEJpGeTSb1vPyt-FTgnqqgMJ0q/s1600/spx_may12.png"/></a></div>
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<ins class="adsbygoogle"
style="display:block; text-align:center;"
data-ad-layout="in-article"
data-ad-format="fluid"
data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642"
data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins>
<script>
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
</script>
<p>The Nasdaq has been on the rip since undercutting its 200-day MA. It's currently 14% above its 200-day MA, that puts it in the 15% zone of historic price extremes dating back to 1971. The index last reached the 10% zone in July 2024, which interestingly enough, marks the starting point for the resistance channel in the index; buyer beware. A good time to take profits (although in itself, didn't mark the end of the rally).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg33INGlw1Q0tp2rXl01I2t6-Ih7KBogSgIMXeKdo3-sshf2KMI4yJ2vQHuxfgdCiD5LUx194QmRTioEeATbdr-S6csRwK11IK6KUNv3mlEkBgKc4xWG1AbVvjWssEEd-sK-dDDiIQBLNwppLfZ40yP7gIyiNtxrG0e1egnJH6Mc1miRmT2sEQP/s1600/compq_may12w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg33INGlw1Q0tp2rXl01I2t6-Ih7KBogSgIMXeKdo3-sshf2KMI4yJ2vQHuxfgdCiD5LUx194QmRTioEeATbdr-S6csRwK11IK6KUNv3mlEkBgKc4xWG1AbVvjWssEEd-sK-dDDiIQBLNwppLfZ40yP7gIyiNtxrG0e1egnJH6Mc1miRmT2sEQP/s1600/compq_may12w.png"/></a></div>
<p>Where things get a little more interesting is in the equal-weighted averages. The equal-weighted S&P has been spiking both high and low with the 20-day MA offering support, but the February high proving to be stubborn resistance. If this doesn't break higher soon we will see a squeezed short play as traders get trapped on a flush lower.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYlCaIvhJ-jbTJHj5jcdnrocTDd1ZQYX6_erv9qhvmycZwjcH8iJryqnzhLIqUygAS0kk1o90xWagWNjRDxGH-7CQTLmDJztIrzAVREPVhtDtIgg6V4DIQWu4NDuZdsvKcK6uUiG2Bo9DeQC3imokpOx24FrSSw9ANixE9v0mSMCA0iZPTN1f/s1600/spxew_may12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYlCaIvhJ-jbTJHj5jcdnrocTDd1ZQYX6_erv9qhvmycZwjcH8iJryqnzhLIqUygAS0kk1o90xWagWNjRDxGH-7CQTLmDJztIrzAVREPVhtDtIgg6V4DIQWu4NDuZdsvKcK6uUiG2Bo9DeQC3imokpOx24FrSSw9ANixE9v0mSMCA0iZPTN1f/s1600/spxew_may12.png"/></a></div>
<p>Likewise, the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 has made it to January high resistance and is consolidating a little before an eventual(?) breakout. Technicals are more bullish than for the equal-weighted S&P, but it's lagging a long way behind the Nasdaq itself.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwOMRNJYzHHGe0WG8PyUdyi4lPJKd1lexEpA75921LCZ-hygtMgbq4wbS-gFb82aGSV-sEL6GgWpGnoVCcsojBo7SIksz1_TLbKN86gZ3E6FnxYGzUjR22iqvMUVmH2ntoalEq3YHX25qdJDcyP6xBUmiEU8r6BeE82MVGQkm6hbS1RMJ_988a/s1600/qqew_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwOMRNJYzHHGe0WG8PyUdyi4lPJKd1lexEpA75921LCZ-hygtMgbq4wbS-gFb82aGSV-sEL6GgWpGnoVCcsojBo7SIksz1_TLbKN86gZ3E6FnxYGzUjR22iqvMUVmH2ntoalEq3YHX25qdJDcyP6xBUmiEU8r6BeE82MVGQkm6hbS1RMJ_988a/s1600/qqew_may5.png"/></a></div>
<p>The Dow is also trading below Jan/Feb highs as trading volumes side with bulls, but technicals are mixed. In the broader context of the market, it features little, but what it does matters. If it breaks higher, it will point to broader strength, irrespective as to what comes next for Semiconductors.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpL57Rg9quf0Z3011YrMo0bWT_V7F43kJoPnMRPmM6wY25EWZ46MWnM6g2xIpEOy0nNzO3GQNympOJ1i35ch0ofpV4DB-nnjlwm-ihoGmWUuZkE-ZvNZcmkf7FW2X1hWt81IgSIjykbBcYtI9QLbhgCmUoS8tm4FdNY4ETHXg2eiyvNpxUsXQJ/s1600/indu_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpL57Rg9quf0Z3011YrMo0bWT_V7F43kJoPnMRPmM6wY25EWZ46MWnM6g2xIpEOy0nNzO3GQNympOJ1i35ch0ofpV4DB-nnjlwm-ihoGmWUuZkE-ZvNZcmkf7FW2X1hWt81IgSIjykbBcYtI9QLbhgCmUoS8tm4FdNY4ETHXg2eiyvNpxUsXQJ/s1600/indu_may5.png"/></a></div>
<p>My reliable call has been Bitcoin. It's now at its profit target of its 200-day MA. It may go higher, but now would be a good time to take some profits and let the rest ride; how much will depend on your risk tolerance.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIxJfRk_MWzzi5CHTctdESpZQDFiAHBSQS_1oyMQY6vVFJCYeAD6GCFaQ6BXdhgSPcMFkRWo7TiL19u9jpxJTx5pyXaxC53Grn2k9uEvmIrforgjDHgsuFVXiqv_FMYHfaFQMdc-CvEAD09U_NWkO_naPvb2c8YugrDLm0M7LcnR-zZj0wP_yS/s1600/btcusd_may12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIxJfRk_MWzzi5CHTctdESpZQDFiAHBSQS_1oyMQY6vVFJCYeAD6GCFaQ6BXdhgSPcMFkRWo7TiL19u9jpxJTx5pyXaxC53Grn2k9uEvmIrforgjDHgsuFVXiqv_FMYHfaFQMdc-CvEAD09U_NWkO_naPvb2c8YugrDLm0M7LcnR-zZj0wP_yS/s1600/btcusd_may12.png"/></a></div>
<p>Lots to play for this week. I would expect a sharp correction in tech soon, but there is nothing to suggest this would be a crash. Other sectors, aside from defensive consumer stocks, are doing well, so we will see despite the instability in global affairs - the impacts of which have been swept under the rug by the media (food supply later this year - not oil - is the going to be the big one).</p>
---
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p>
<div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&h=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&h=360"><br />
</div>
</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q');
</script>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.com