tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100197042026-11-01T23:11:07.161+00:00Stock Market Commentary by Dr. Declan Fallon; est. Jan 8th 2005Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comBlogger4661125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-71715969448084276432026-11-01T23:09:15.796+00:002026-11-01T23:11:07.161+00:00<p>Indices are at an inflection point with 200-day MAs acting as last major support before we have to look elsewhere.</p> <p>We will start with the Russell 2000 ($IWM). The break of the declining trend managed to survive until a test of its 50-day MA, then sellers kicked it back to its 200-day MA. I'm not particularly optimistic for this test holding, but until we get a loss of $275 there is a chance bulls could hold out. Aggressive longs could fish for GTC 'buy' orders around $275 and bail if $270 is lost.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0QQw_z2EfyNe-VL3uPT7_BbS5CULgHni007NRTNDdh_1Hyr2MLWrGEmzmdksTkI13WpBWIbYmZQzIfUIEhc2Tj1A0l8fNkfGwChnKqtd_oZdJiyPhEh0ANoaNMXOhxPX2cKZUF9TYwqQSu3j-K964fQ416FpT3W7nBCor8JwBAfY_o-y5h406/s1600/iwm_nov1b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0QQw_z2EfyNe-VL3uPT7_BbS5CULgHni007NRTNDdh_1Hyr2MLWrGEmzmdksTkI13WpBWIbYmZQzIfUIEhc2Tj1A0l8fNkfGwChnKqtd_oZdJiyPhEh0ANoaNMXOhxPX2cKZUF9TYwqQSu3j-K964fQ416FpT3W7nBCor8JwBAfY_o-y5h406/s1600/iwm_nov1b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P takes one step forward and one step back, but manages to post a net gain. It's above all key moving averages and is on course to test 9K. Technicals are net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_MfJLoFzheb1jYNJk5mSGLLib1ks4nEWER_5piae-liEy1dSJFZRq5kLRIuhrqUagQP5ckiybIBrni351iHeLtRtvdFeKOJaOEJs8t3YnWcdT_jbVKCznAgqlwioz3-4QAHv88DoF_CsZR1SHBmFQQGsFBNwTKVrmFPTNWA6yCKBGVZkBxf-9/s1600/spxew_nov1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_MfJLoFzheb1jYNJk5mSGLLib1ks4nEWER_5piae-liEy1dSJFZRq5kLRIuhrqUagQP5ckiybIBrni351iHeLtRtvdFeKOJaOEJs8t3YnWcdT_jbVKCznAgqlwioz3-4QAHv88DoF_CsZR1SHBmFQQGsFBNwTKVrmFPTNWA6yCKBGVZkBxf-9/s1600/spxew_nov1.png"/></a></div> <p>The weighted S&P took a bigger hit on confirmed distribution. The trading range that index had managed to protect during the AI-semiconductor turmoil has come under pressure from Friday's selling, but is not entirely done given the low of the 'bear trap' at 7.5K has not been violated, but if it fails, then the 200-day MA becomes the next target.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiJwCTaZwyVDpiHlGff0RaMXuRjCyn3rSp01NmXr2-CbV1uVSaiVOL_KX9Xqli8Nc_H1s2t0zJo4qavntm3aRTGxjOF76wLgxDWlH98YQdMuh3ggfaURJMd-zONLILaVXr5n2_YTLlTUt4TAXWPAvoduxGJDYlQgETghWnuomY2tFeqeuVQk_8/s1600/spx_nov1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiJwCTaZwyVDpiHlGff0RaMXuRjCyn3rSp01NmXr2-CbV1uVSaiVOL_KX9Xqli8Nc_H1s2t0zJo4qavntm3aRTGxjOF76wLgxDWlH98YQdMuh3ggfaURJMd-zONLILaVXr5n2_YTLlTUt4TAXWPAvoduxGJDYlQgETghWnuomY2tFeqeuVQk_8/s1600/spx_nov1.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq also ran into trouble at its 50-day MA and now finds itself in a pending challenge of its 200-day MA on higher volume distribution. While I wouldn't want to see an undercut of the 200-day MA, there is a second level of support at 24.5K from the July swing low to work. Remember, we are working off a September 'bull trap' which typically delivers a move down to support of the prior range (that delivered the 'bull trap'), so I will be looking for this test.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU3Qk0gnEaq4-0tg_50DTTUaNx6jA_nTJxDlCM7GuVWCzkiqTz56eclaUOqObKMnMIlu9JuGKbjhlRHJN9-wr3nSlbyBDWz3uk00sMdC-P8hg1l0_RKhbdGqqbeI9QON67PfwRuw6HlsmqFoUiLTsK8NoI_2aieTffNX1a8SpPYVtEISmutflr/s1600/NAS_nov1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU3Qk0gnEaq4-0tg_50DTTUaNx6jA_nTJxDlCM7GuVWCzkiqTz56eclaUOqObKMnMIlu9JuGKbjhlRHJN9-wr3nSlbyBDWz3uk00sMdC-P8hg1l0_RKhbdGqqbeI9QON67PfwRuw6HlsmqFoUiLTsK8NoI_2aieTffNX1a8SpPYVtEISmutflr/s1600/NAS_nov1.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 is going to test its 200-day MA and there is a good chance for a successful bounce given the proximity to the June swing low too.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho3dtE2Q8oskbIxwHZntcw91ShpKjS5VBDYK26e54Tbj-OaiTrDa5Vzfnuve5BG6_iwzKo47h27ShLsQUeBq5jH8fmLg5vdlgH_luZJDiVdz27iQke6NdRsloq5lFRFMsmQ1TgOSVXgPArTSgu77ta500UfyQ0kRjF72JFyVrSQWggq9B70jKh/s1600/qqew_nov11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho3dtE2Q8oskbIxwHZntcw91ShpKjS5VBDYK26e54Tbj-OaiTrDa5Vzfnuve5BG6_iwzKo47h27ShLsQUeBq5jH8fmLg5vdlgH_luZJDiVdz27iQke6NdRsloq5lFRFMsmQ1TgOSVXgPArTSgu77ta500UfyQ0kRjF72JFyVrSQWggq9B70jKh/s1600/qqew_nov11.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Bitcoin has come back to support of the August-September consolidation, that to give up would bring the 200-day MA into play. On-balance-Volume has been trending down since the start of October and while I'm optimistic for Bitcoin in the long term, the presence of oversold stochastics leaves it vulnerable to an acceleration lower. It may even come back as far as 65K, but lets see what happens next; play as a swing trade with risk:reward measured by the narrow doji.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBFEaf9sxipcxWf0yaDHcJmBaS6-_Vk2JosFuhlmdz0TuZB1QZFW6Ho7ICr0ulyg0hQ2l6vEf8ftKxHlXAiTEYb5-BaYv9xYZf5E7pU9DoCDwb5dWX3ZekI-KP11uWcvUg1vLGkfmLOWtp8H_HG_ae_n3s9lbSLpWuK1Gz8CWLnsh5tpkWNZ0p/s1600/btcusd_nov1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBFEaf9sxipcxWf0yaDHcJmBaS6-_Vk2JosFuhlmdz0TuZB1QZFW6Ho7ICr0ulyg0hQ2l6vEf8ftKxHlXAiTEYb5-BaYv9xYZf5E7pU9DoCDwb5dWX3ZekI-KP11uWcvUg1vLGkfmLOWtp8H_HG_ae_n3s9lbSLpWuK1Gz8CWLnsh5tpkWNZ0p/s1600/btcusd_nov1.png"/></a></div> <p>Finally, Semiconductors made it down to its 200-day MA and could lose more ground given this is the second test in the space of a week. Technicals are net bearish, but not oversold. We may see a move higher to fill the gap before combined pressure of the 20-day and 50-day MAs pushes this lower.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLqGDbYa3N-7u6zZMDeBYsOEKY1_pCWfIi4i0W9xxwvoKaJlDcHnnBs0fNVuGqnP2fFvQBMnCw_IvWnhW7AQhOMtLjcvJxMR_2yGLiLysrihLPH1mJJRmlowlIwQ7AV-v5sNxoAoqgvixFaiFyXLbNPdEU61Ehbwg6n1Q2wmL1eAjolBkdO5J5/s1600/sox_nov1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLqGDbYa3N-7u6zZMDeBYsOEKY1_pCWfIi4i0W9xxwvoKaJlDcHnnBs0fNVuGqnP2fFvQBMnCw_IvWnhW7AQhOMtLjcvJxMR_2yGLiLysrihLPH1mJJRmlowlIwQ7AV-v5sNxoAoqgvixFaiFyXLbNPdEU61Ehbwg6n1Q2wmL1eAjolBkdO5J5/s1600/sox_nov1.png"/></a></div> <p>For the coming week, further losses could set a cat amongst the pigeons and introduce some panic in the markets. Having said that, there are still support levels to work with and most of the weakness is concentrated in a small number of (heavily weighted) stocks. I'm liking action in the equal-weighted S&P, and would feel better if the Russell 2000 would do likewise.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-80698789261049430412026-10-27T21:29:31.244+00:002026-10-27T21:43:22.734+00:00<p>It was a stealth setup for the Russell 2000 ($IWM), hiding below its 200-day MA and declining trend before buyers made a higher volume break of resistance (on confirmed accumulation). The next target is the 50-day MA for those who took advantage of the break. Supporting the move are 'buy' signals for the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. When it gets there, or tags the July swing low, we will get a better idea as to whether bears arae in control or buyers have enough momentum to mount a challenge of $300.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMqNYCVWLFYk7lNh8Q7ucO3GmzrLzQ7iS6c5aRiedN2zmMlqMo0D1Dw5ee2Qg_Ik7RLIqWKqkqXWuipZ6-QE84jFfXSflVf_84xZBYxDHP__iMbPuLz6iLFmO9Y5SPQbHd-LrWct5oBifttMXThemNhJBszSJRQxkYSwWAcoyOu2vlB7JgUXF1/s1600/iwm_oct27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMqNYCVWLFYk7lNh8Q7ucO3GmzrLzQ7iS6c5aRiedN2zmMlqMo0D1Dw5ee2Qg_Ik7RLIqWKqkqXWuipZ6-QE84jFfXSflVf_84xZBYxDHP__iMbPuLz6iLFmO9Y5SPQbHd-LrWct5oBifttMXThemNhJBszSJRQxkYSwWAcoyOu2vlB7JgUXF1/s1600/iwm_oct27.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq ($COMPQ) rallied from support and has reached its first target of its 20-day MA. Next is the 50-day MA. Technicals remain net negative.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir_EJVf-IbiY1_vjTF1xVCK-U8wEPgNCg7O8HSozyDfICXsl0yAzUVFGzngl1WIFTJquytnYsfYXAv2wxw4_ffSL7EF0gCvvDZOwx6oqwcIMac-BMABPLcVWWSotYgSQ5DAI-VXPNyiPKwibKCgjL7odbfYhSeB1tkuhZahz_5c97VDoAYjMGr/s1600/compq_oct27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir_EJVf-IbiY1_vjTF1xVCK-U8wEPgNCg7O8HSozyDfICXsl0yAzUVFGzngl1WIFTJquytnYsfYXAv2wxw4_ffSL7EF0gCvvDZOwx6oqwcIMac-BMABPLcVWWSotYgSQ5DAI-VXPNyiPKwibKCgjL7odbfYhSeB1tkuhZahz_5c97VDoAYjMGr/s1600/compq_oct27.png"/></a></div> <p>The S&P didn't register a breakout given it's still stuck inside its range, but it could do tomorrow. The only problem is that it has already banked two days of gains, so the risk:reward isn't entirely favorable.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1TdUhFLBh-YiLvl8ZvQcRoBQeRgH0lMdDS6rnbCz_vzk41AmhCcby8BYUoH-_nyNFk6a0X5UZmV8iulGUpqoB9bv157VzZw8DkuThEwV4g0AwCcJpOTPKJezw2Sx4j5LBewA7_EfM1Hplb6lgS2nV6HfJP_ntIOhv-PsPiQlN1XopizYbeXjb/s1600/spx_oct27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1TdUhFLBh-YiLvl8ZvQcRoBQeRgH0lMdDS6rnbCz_vzk41AmhCcby8BYUoH-_nyNFk6a0X5UZmV8iulGUpqoB9bv157VzZw8DkuThEwV4g0AwCcJpOTPKJezw2Sx4j5LBewA7_EfM1Hplb6lgS2nV6HfJP_ntIOhv-PsPiQlN1XopizYbeXjb/s1600/spx_oct27.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is down at the October spike low and is an aggressive long trade for those looking for a new push to $87.5K. I think it's a good opportunity for those looking for a quick trade given the risk:reward is easy to assess with a stop on a loss of yesterday's lows. Long term traders can continue to hold; only a loss of $75K would suggest this base-building exercise is going to take longer.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9gwHDb-v_JdNxo3yS0PxNU4YDXG6LKW6N7pwqh7evv4MRbZWlgf8Na7bqgrmP9hj1e8gRsFheCPLHQMdi8AbA-hpGMKrSkPAKJEyrEOjqn4jp_-jFL2lU354-PfiiSwrWISvfd4p9xXN9hduv9KWU-7Nh9Ri673JLRcVYzaSh6BHUtyZUDkvo/s1600/btcusd_oct27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9gwHDb-v_JdNxo3yS0PxNU4YDXG6LKW6N7pwqh7evv4MRbZWlgf8Na7bqgrmP9hj1e8gRsFheCPLHQMdi8AbA-hpGMKrSkPAKJEyrEOjqn4jp_-jFL2lU354-PfiiSwrWISvfd4p9xXN9hduv9KWU-7Nh9Ri673JLRcVYzaSh6BHUtyZUDkvo/s1600/btcusd_oct27.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) is tracking along its 50-day MA and converged trendline support. I think there is a bounce trade here too - helped by net bullish technicals. First target is $53K and then $54.5K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg9nAxBCW78WTm8hs0wpND36z0POSrQKW7OUOcj1MnkoXDzf9nWGIhpB93NVHQgTiinViR7mM57cKYMxCjqnf5e28MNGGTbe_FAHvzlK2gZiuCHXDYceWz16TiFGpI_iaJ36VLPplXuiXhAo43ZjdpWlfsVKzU1a6Z9KQgNeUchZYnZVgEFDMC/s1600/djia_oct27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg9nAxBCW78WTm8hs0wpND36z0POSrQKW7OUOcj1MnkoXDzf9nWGIhpB93NVHQgTiinViR7mM57cKYMxCjqnf5e28MNGGTbe_FAHvzlK2gZiuCHXDYceWz16TiFGpI_iaJ36VLPplXuiXhAo43ZjdpWlfsVKzU1a6Z9KQgNeUchZYnZVgEFDMC/s1600/djia_oct27.png"/></a></div> <p>So, we still have a few trade opportunities to work with, all favoring the long side.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-36426605512857269832026-10-25T22:56:40.489+00:002026-10-25T23:00:09.690+00:00<p>There may be an aggressive long for the Russell 2000 by virtue of its under-the-radar action. Systems tracking trend breaks or moving average breaks will still be in the dark, but looking at the chart, there may be a subtle long setup. Risk-reward is easy to measure as an undercut of Friday's low (on a closing basis) would negate the traade. Initial upside target is the 50-day MA. What I also like? The uptick in relative performance over the Nasdaq.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRh-F2aUaiZYNJHQWD_TGN8sw8FhjH5XHOMQm3fHGoOEhnBFwGUgH7f-KKEz7HiQnv4rMRp_rPerVKaAduPONwU1B6NCkCnNyhNoGPsbRXuw5dFF1vPjFhePuI_usOwmdpfTeR6enYZS9_IwjuQfIEaKnoVzpcRgdIbe1ZAUTE5Y5Y29Cn7KFN/s1600/iwm_oct24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRh-F2aUaiZYNJHQWD_TGN8sw8FhjH5XHOMQm3fHGoOEhnBFwGUgH7f-KKEz7HiQnv4rMRp_rPerVKaAduPONwU1B6NCkCnNyhNoGPsbRXuw5dFF1vPjFhePuI_usOwmdpfTeR6enYZS9_IwjuQfIEaKnoVzpcRgdIbe1ZAUTE5Y5Y29Cn7KFN/s1600/iwm_oct24.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) and Dow Jones Industrial were pegged back Friday, but the September bounce remains in play with the 50-day MA key support for both indices. Important note, both indices are net bullish in technicals.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOYXVzAPF6SYlN2_dNGM1-u7W-piUZ03GuGVV81fdaxYf7xnOiF0OZMv9wwEbULWmGJrECbaXIf3-uvC2teaE1Xu_Ab2DfgZ9KJgLkBM9RyvvNusSrHHoF6GRLyjj7esvFXCagIHg4tO09U98ciM0uH0Nnf5gyxZNQdNluJL8DGY5MvPmWKTbo/s1600/spxew_oct23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOYXVzAPF6SYlN2_dNGM1-u7W-piUZ03GuGVV81fdaxYf7xnOiF0OZMv9wwEbULWmGJrECbaXIf3-uvC2teaE1Xu_Ab2DfgZ9KJgLkBM9RyvvNusSrHHoF6GRLyjj7esvFXCagIHg4tO09U98ciM0uH0Nnf5gyxZNQdNluJL8DGY5MvPmWKTbo/s1600/spxew_oct23.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLE7m2KDiFMjPjsFiUzGwv7PKHuc9kkg9NQejc0PBR1U0vzwQDwr7m_jKnev7w7Hk4pVSB5WRtpyWi_rLhF5vSuCvNCDepEwMBlufal0pMRD5XeJXVTG99oEbAgIW2LGtkEMcm6f5eJYK_A90lF9IYF-wcQkmUNgLpJeXcnlRoBnQpN9vnHhPl/s1600/indu_oct23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLE7m2KDiFMjPjsFiUzGwv7PKHuc9kkg9NQejc0PBR1U0vzwQDwr7m_jKnev7w7Hk4pVSB5WRtpyWi_rLhF5vSuCvNCDepEwMBlufal0pMRD5XeJXVTG99oEbAgIW2LGtkEMcm6f5eJYK_A90lF9IYF-wcQkmUNgLpJeXcnlRoBnQpN9vnHhPl/s1600/indu_oct23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Things are looking at more sketchy fot the S&P. The index has given up 7,650 support and is caught in a bit of a no-mans land between 7,600 and 7,650. It will be important for 7.6K to hold, because below that you will be looking at the 200-day MA down near 7.3K. Technicals are more mixed, but the key stochastic metric I like to watch is holding the bullish mid-line; The index will become a short trade if this line is undercut.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeLAkpaxsTA8KdcA8ZA_mEPpwr8glmWWf9Nnj3220QiHdQUHCgDzKgxQL6lsVJTgl5JCswFFui7WsOT5z1FuKQNUAr8xo1flubUHOLfiy8a6tV9HVSvK2eWqc1F2R6VFLVqw9DrGRYoM1Afb5FFkiFiWkthFt9qK5cQzLh80_msh_DcD8cC-Sl/s1600/spx_oct25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeLAkpaxsTA8KdcA8ZA_mEPpwr8glmWWf9Nnj3220QiHdQUHCgDzKgxQL6lsVJTgl5JCswFFui7WsOT5z1FuKQNUAr8xo1flubUHOLfiy8a6tV9HVSvK2eWqc1F2R6VFLVqw9DrGRYoM1Afb5FFkiFiWkthFt9qK5cQzLh80_msh_DcD8cC-Sl/s1600/spx_oct25.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq has reached a decision point. Friday comes at a divergence of support levels, a loss of which has the 200-day MA as the next target. Note, the 'bull trap' on the reversal "evening star" should see a retracement all the way back to the low of the trading range, at 24.5K. But, as of Friday's close there may be a swing trade on an options straddle, as near term things are set for a bounce.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbWF7plfOHni3hk1F-FDr4MZ5lXdmKjGRi1_9xWwGRrMzJc5JkLK7-0Xjwv4UM-sViwxDwrHia25gIG6OBLlIJJsBqnq7TdoTGSsMqTXGOXhmcq_p5hnzqFOniRTb8yDC485QfBZZezbLDgup5mwOlIbf3i0veC0jFIsSMg3k6PMsAARTVegDv/s1600/nas_oct25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbWF7plfOHni3hk1F-FDr4MZ5lXdmKjGRi1_9xWwGRrMzJc5JkLK7-0Xjwv4UM-sViwxDwrHia25gIG6OBLlIJJsBqnq7TdoTGSsMqTXGOXhmcq_p5hnzqFOniRTb8yDC485QfBZZezbLDgup5mwOlIbf3i0veC0jFIsSMg3k6PMsAARTVegDv/s1600/nas_oct25.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have finally landed on their 200-day MA. There is a bounce trade here as this level also coincides with the July swing low. A loss of this moving averagae kick starts my measured move target into the depths of Fibonacci retracements.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju8juTd8yyszsjYdUrEjGPDgGEo9wkaf2nkpz_7eNOQi-866GABxd-a4jiCbrWfKcesxJX92xxPJVBSavIIZ_t8E2ed3bsyEkzGIOirbEdmpXIhpXVf0HoQ4AfwM9_2uV3UbnaqdCLpYQRuzX9g9uj6-iA23f_ImZWUrPmlhN-ZGmlouN7VM3b/s1600/sox_oct25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju8juTd8yyszsjYdUrEjGPDgGEo9wkaf2nkpz_7eNOQi-866GABxd-a4jiCbrWfKcesxJX92xxPJVBSavIIZ_t8E2ed3bsyEkzGIOirbEdmpXIhpXVf0HoQ4AfwM9_2uV3UbnaqdCLpYQRuzX9g9uj6-iA23f_ImZWUrPmlhN-ZGmlouN7VM3b/s1600/sox_oct25.png"/></a></div> <p>Finally, Bitcoin suffered on the failure to hold the break of 20-day and 50-day MAs. It's now trading at the spike low which marked the last solid 'buy' signal on the bullish hammer at the 50-day MA. Note, if you are a long investor, this is still bullish as we are looking at a broader base recovery, but if you bought the August breakout and wanted to take profits, I don't think you would find many arguing with you on doing that.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjapxH9O8Hqf8ZNvqXrqvFM_Yke1J9004Z6UuAW9vm2O5PWdghwPA2GGMpiUfpif4sBjSS8e_ilHLv3IIDqbcwnRdeSxdGh8l8n7vnHWhsW7vwXQvp4ITiElWE52Si_TN3xJ7Tk9k94MNLHa_DBWknEx8nfIut7mtoUTM5jF83qDA_zXgHR7LR0/s1600/btcusd_oct25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjapxH9O8Hqf8ZNvqXrqvFM_Yke1J9004Z6UuAW9vm2O5PWdghwPA2GGMpiUfpif4sBjSS8e_ilHLv3IIDqbcwnRdeSxdGh8l8n7vnHWhsW7vwXQvp4ITiElWE52Si_TN3xJ7Tk9k94MNLHa_DBWknEx8nfIut7mtoUTM5jF83qDA_zXgHR7LR0/s1600/btcusd_oct25.png"/></a></div> <p>For this week, we have 200-day MA bounce play in the Semiconductor Index, and a stealth long in the Russell 2000. An option straddle might be on offer in the Nasdaq.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-16311057092074769772026-10-22T21:57:45.956+01:002026-10-22T21:57:45.956+01:00<p>We are starting to see a larger split in market performance across sectors as Large Caps attract buyers, and Tech stocks attract tumbleweed. Caught in the middle are Small Caps. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) chalked up another accumulation day without breaking resistance (or the 200-day MA). Tomorrow is a chance for the Russell 2000 to pick a side; will it break or will it succumb to selling pressure? Looks like an options swing trade as the next move could be telling.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ8RYj7TrJhlkIs0rYqZLL-DjwMS5qzHLJWHu69FdgII1Yvg4cBiCdH9DcQghdOeBxskADzvNmw5RJqYnjAPJ1ot3S_m-Qj1hAlxQxXqkzoyR5YYiXlW9CoY-uz04cBhz6A8nUD2we6oqCsRiX8Lm8XOwhi3Cyk7qtvcNHLXL6qvDwAhH6XPrO/s1600/iwm_oct22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ8RYj7TrJhlkIs0rYqZLL-DjwMS5qzHLJWHu69FdgII1Yvg4cBiCdH9DcQghdOeBxskADzvNmw5RJqYnjAPJ1ot3S_m-Qj1hAlxQxXqkzoyR5YYiXlW9CoY-uz04cBhz6A8nUD2we6oqCsRiX8Lm8XOwhi3Cyk7qtvcNHLXL6qvDwAhH6XPrO/s1600/iwm_oct22.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P and Dow Industrial Average both marked new breakouts, effectively clearing the last point of resistance before challenging August highs (the Dow still has 53K to break, but it's nearly there). Technicals are net bullish for both indices. Both of these can be bought on losses.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf84FC0R7zkR8hBj06mRs7EGYflLcdBQwyT_xs1YwAfOofZhKDasd-OEofYrE5aZKkZ17pJv1d-s7DL6EPp8CSeJXFCNW03UPEOyRxIh53PKb-VOcCnmH2o1M4zmNdTWW1_CDDI0YevEDCCdUt938XHUiAavR-JZbRUgN9B__zx-cTwWWCZKws/s1600/spxew_oct22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf84FC0R7zkR8hBj06mRs7EGYflLcdBQwyT_xs1YwAfOofZhKDasd-OEofYrE5aZKkZ17pJv1d-s7DL6EPp8CSeJXFCNW03UPEOyRxIh53PKb-VOcCnmH2o1M4zmNdTWW1_CDDI0YevEDCCdUt938XHUiAavR-JZbRUgN9B__zx-cTwWWCZKws/s1600/spxew_oct22.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMSyc4bQK9egG-fek-OuJ7P1alZumplAVAVVOjo7vg1NvwjrDTqgvWrwD2ueogJExe22vtCvYtmwgRn5HNw7oLCM9wPnpvJZTh0b6Pvvj53HH2hmZ6-_SRy25qqsp81hFvhSVrkDo009D37SF1Az7LZ4U-rJW9V0Jlgx7ETvPQil23C8wggtm9/s1600/indu_oct22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMSyc4bQK9egG-fek-OuJ7P1alZumplAVAVVOjo7vg1NvwjrDTqgvWrwD2ueogJExe22vtCvYtmwgRn5HNw7oLCM9wPnpvJZTh0b6Pvvj53HH2hmZ6-_SRy25qqsp81hFvhSVrkDo009D37SF1Az7LZ4U-rJW9V0Jlgx7ETvPQil23C8wggtm9/s1600/indu_oct22.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The weighted S&P gapped down (within its trading range) caught between the pressures of tech selling but broader buying. The "bull trap" is still in play, but there was a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and stochastics have successfully defended the bullish midline. Relative performance has soared relative to the Nasdaq, so if I was to make a call I would say this is more likely to break above its trading range (>7,800).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2SDwT4WFyBGejD3SeHeL-MzLZ3bO8NIyz0pYO4hW9nmMnixJp-nAUGqlPMcXG10eh3LVozlPh_W_ec-WgsWaCXNoNfkqCVuXSnnDn_df4YEazaxaWoR72u-mxSxSane4wMizjsQC-cyoLLByIN1C0wO3MWHkYxiatHdvE2tyf2i1_yZAwbgwu/s1600/spx_oct22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2SDwT4WFyBGejD3SeHeL-MzLZ3bO8NIyz0pYO4hW9nmMnixJp-nAUGqlPMcXG10eh3LVozlPh_W_ec-WgsWaCXNoNfkqCVuXSnnDn_df4YEazaxaWoR72u-mxSxSane4wMizjsQC-cyoLLByIN1C0wO3MWHkYxiatHdvE2tyf2i1_yZAwbgwu/s1600/spx_oct22.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq gapped down in an ugly reversal to yesterday. This is sitting at last support of 26K before we have to consider the 200-day MA. Technicals are mostly bearish, bar a weak 'buy' in On-Balance-Volume, but if this is going anywhere it's going to be a move down to 24.5K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_2K87MeL2Z9Qu7CSefCUEnnL_k5Dcu12LnmiC8iq5q72iTmeRnkY8GxWRtN-UNt9o2lz4Y7TjhanF1yHUGkSspFucImkLqPn3qj36UYizDhyphenhyphenhy8mw-19Yr3EKige3y9O6FR-iy6gdcX4kK6o9jTmFlD1ikY2kKrthFhhifgbcTlkZhXYddclA/s1600/compq_oct22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_2K87MeL2Z9Qu7CSefCUEnnL_k5Dcu12LnmiC8iq5q72iTmeRnkY8GxWRtN-UNt9o2lz4Y7TjhanF1yHUGkSspFucImkLqPn3qj36UYizDhyphenhyphenhy8mw-19Yr3EKige3y9O6FR-iy6gdcX4kK6o9jTmFlD1ikY2kKrthFhhifgbcTlkZhXYddclA/s1600/compq_oct22.png"/></a></div> <p>The asset that's causing confusion is Bitcoin. I'm still long term bullish on this even if Tech stocks take a big turn South, but this has gone from bullish to bearish, back to bullish, and now looks bearish. Because I view this as long term bullish I don't think this will drop below its 200-day MA, or even 77K, but it's a bit flaky for a near term trade.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqM3a729p6wOj1dwUBKtdhQ0qopMa83mjleQj4I-BIivr2rh5tczP9YissoYtZLRQSX7FEc2b7n-oNhlyLEed6cIb2-cxQo3VGQklVGWt2a8mhC976G0MjHIBgZLHHJjIFnCNeel2ZKYeEH6qnk8UQTGPzPiAz6R70BtctfoYexRDhWFcABwOM/s1600/btcusd_oct22b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqM3a729p6wOj1dwUBKtdhQ0qopMa83mjleQj4I-BIivr2rh5tczP9YissoYtZLRQSX7FEc2b7n-oNhlyLEed6cIb2-cxQo3VGQklVGWt2a8mhC976G0MjHIBgZLHHJjIFnCNeel2ZKYeEH6qnk8UQTGPzPiAz6R70BtctfoYexRDhWFcABwOM/s1600/btcusd_oct22b.png"/></a></div> <p>So we have two parties at work here; bulls for Large Caps, bears for Tech, with Small Caps fighting for interest from both parties. Tech is heavily overbought, to the point a big haircut would still leave this *net bullish* on the secular bull trend. Because of this, the next few months will likely see some ugly noise within the larger bull trend. Investors have no reason to sell.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-69631017220208530622026-10-20T22:06:01.438+01:002026-10-20T22:06:01.438+01:00<p>It has been a volatile past few days for indices, but the bigger picture remains unchanged. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has struggled to regain its 200-day MA despite today's big gain. Today's buying registered as accumulation but technicals are still net bearish, and the 20-day MA is on course to cut below its 200-day MA. However, if we see a close above 20-day MA and 200-day MA it will give skew things back in bulls favor (buying subsequent dips). Aggressive players could look to buy any subsequent drop below $272, with a stop on a loss of $270.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFFmdC2qA8Y_4n3bhoQa_gfAQO-Hhyphenhyphen6dalGypJ1-5hYqddej7myJV2e406FO4ctVoSZI1dYGqN1yv7zraWLsq4IpM70GNUOpPm46M0TNdJTz6YP5TsKf-BD_tXzNUNvXoSkr-hnxKlzPnykoNpZloKIU11tOyiIhGIHZJTzQuojF6ZzbCz79Cu/s1600/iwn_oct20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFFmdC2qA8Y_4n3bhoQa_gfAQO-Hhyphenhyphen6dalGypJ1-5hYqddej7myJV2e406FO4ctVoSZI1dYGqN1yv7zraWLsq4IpM70GNUOpPm46M0TNdJTz6YP5TsKf-BD_tXzNUNvXoSkr-hnxKlzPnykoNpZloKIU11tOyiIhGIHZJTzQuojF6ZzbCz79Cu/s1600/iwn_oct20.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P closed above the 50-day MA, but it hasn't quite negated the "spinning top" that had initially spiked to the 50-day MA. If it does so it will open up for a challenge of 8,800. Stochastics haven't breached the midline which is another marker for bears, but let price be your guide.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU_gUbxYGLOPfyBbViKkiXHPOOV21gCpyPySf9WWEQ7f82hHiw4iDTGNowgDHn0KaFqHtZaD3chydZWGRsEFlMxmSn3H8QyJTav0L_DWncjWcH5wLFVqRzClvYc7_o7BdqiK1xKGVXJgjyLSFt3JWjHZhoZcOT4Luc4WsHPTDJ8DKllZwmNBJx/s1600/spxew_oct20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU_gUbxYGLOPfyBbViKkiXHPOOV21gCpyPySf9WWEQ7f82hHiw4iDTGNowgDHn0KaFqHtZaD3chydZWGRsEFlMxmSn3H8QyJTav0L_DWncjWcH5wLFVqRzClvYc7_o7BdqiK1xKGVXJgjyLSFt3JWjHZhoZcOT4Luc4WsHPTDJ8DKllZwmNBJx/s1600/spxew_oct20.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>It was a similar story for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, although it had managed to close above the spinning top which negates its bearishness. Technicals are still mixed and stochastics have not crossed above the bullish midline, so bulls aren't totally out of the woods yet.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpG4Q56HXMOWj1MRoMiPQ5ufRvkS8bx7NHBP9dRELNu_LRFNGuxc95lUJyj26rsxi_FvR-1Z-gS9etuTnHR2z5d066oYzuBO3QUE7j_Z5hQj-GhDwHMBCN_OeSNAiLWuUec5sygU5VYEmcJdtNIW6xz8edczjZiVvvuDat5y2xTXUw9kZNa50d/s1600/indu_oct20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpG4Q56HXMOWj1MRoMiPQ5ufRvkS8bx7NHBP9dRELNu_LRFNGuxc95lUJyj26rsxi_FvR-1Z-gS9etuTnHR2z5d066oYzuBO3QUE7j_Z5hQj-GhDwHMBCN_OeSNAiLWuUec5sygU5VYEmcJdtNIW6xz8edczjZiVvvuDat5y2xTXUw9kZNa50d/s1600/indu_oct20.png"/></a></div> <p>The S&P closed with a candle offering a spike high that is at risk of marking a move lower. Technicals are close to turning net negative, but there is still a chance for stochastics to hold the midline, which means buying rather than selling might be the opportune play here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicAZRaV6jJNDZIG0a-pf2Mo7OQuA7nzpLUva5Vs7xZ-vB3Ss2Mi3EmzSwOcUTL5wx_c0XbzUvad_zBJJgHa594dI9VGnjVu5qHVmqNiWjaqz9_iJKJndsVuoj5YeRWwYLON2abVj_SHagjNZUMOe7kiSfLFBlBux__Bd_OZN8frXk95EFwSnIS/s1600/SPX_oct20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicAZRaV6jJNDZIG0a-pf2Mo7OQuA7nzpLUva5Vs7xZ-vB3Ss2Mi3EmzSwOcUTL5wx_c0XbzUvad_zBJJgHa594dI9VGnjVu5qHVmqNiWjaqz9_iJKJndsVuoj5YeRWwYLON2abVj_SHagjNZUMOe7kiSfLFBlBux__Bd_OZN8frXk95EFwSnIS/s1600/SPX_oct20.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq closed with a more neutral spinning top, but is dealing with bearish net technicals. This is the one index which hasn't really picked up on the more bullish sentiment enjoyed by other indices today. I would be looking for further losses from here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ubvOVz1JlRLS_BRF2BFVKgdcYB8Qb07oH__-p35WDNtDJhshwRP8OUMaqrDO1cDGj22cuEdOVG7TExwHfnZIDWB_Ryd1X-hvBp15RA9i7sxLYECRCbqbv4pAcUa5hw2wvo7645cPRuMp0vn3-W0JxiT2HCoMeGFtMmgKLV84vAarCuliDM1B/s1600/compq_oct20f.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ubvOVz1JlRLS_BRF2BFVKgdcYB8Qb07oH__-p35WDNtDJhshwRP8OUMaqrDO1cDGj22cuEdOVG7TExwHfnZIDWB_Ryd1X-hvBp15RA9i7sxLYECRCbqbv4pAcUa5hw2wvo7645cPRuMp0vn3-W0JxiT2HCoMeGFtMmgKLV84vAarCuliDM1B/s1600/compq_oct20f.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin last week was looking to challenge the spike low but the past two days have seen this sentiment shift and it again looks ready to move higher. If you are not holding a long position it may be best to wait for a close above the 20-day MA, but long term holders can continue to hold as right-hand-base development remains on course. Note how stochastics are holding the bullish mid-line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0wGGH5G1zkKRYpxEurLoj_gN-daZNBouvOXZIF8z8w27XA96Znq6BmZUSme8v1w7BWMVGb3U1C-VrngQCEn7yRbiIm2dgsFpMBPLIBE3zUsJfQ_DNpYaE0vPjkze3N6-IAtRqzCs1-lJBsL07nsHDcZyzH2gTDC5zeVP1SkyPvJav_SM1D_UN/s1600/btcusd_oct20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0wGGH5G1zkKRYpxEurLoj_gN-daZNBouvOXZIF8z8w27XA96Znq6BmZUSme8v1w7BWMVGb3U1C-VrngQCEn7yRbiIm2dgsFpMBPLIBE3zUsJfQ_DNpYaE0vPjkze3N6-IAtRqzCs1-lJBsL07nsHDcZyzH2gTDC5zeVP1SkyPvJav_SM1D_UN/s1600/btcusd_oct20.png"/></a></div> <p>Things aren't as bearish as they were over the weekend, but we are not out of the woods yet. The Bitcoin short trade looks done, but can be switched long. Other markets are a wait-and-see, although the equal-weighted S&P, weighted S&P, and Dow Industrial Average are looking more like long trades.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-14022954388455062412026-10-18T22:11:50.028+01:002026-10-19T11:07:02.041+01:00<p>Troubling times for indices as Thursday's strong bounce was killed by an even larger sell off on confirmed distribution. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) was already oversold when it finished with a bearish engulfing pattern. The May swing low has played as support following the loss of the 200-day MA, but after Friday, it's hard to see that continuing. Looking at a weekly chart for the index, there is a chance the 50-week MA could play as support, but for this to happen we need to see a Friday close at or above this level; if we don't, then $240 becomes next support.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhupnfoxUdXeLaURFG2uLtrXfmplVhXlTIvTRZ2bu-riD8Joic6D6cCI1hrXaJVr5yrH9piptYsNlgsCL-AUb2T7RTEYQtEpp3esK7RqGmZU8Keatvp0exWe_2R5GBDbfV0JzD7N_iTBQ9QEN6xMxnlCpLCjWI1yaxfbqJMlQd6vtx7-HmkDa-7/s1600/rut_oct16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhupnfoxUdXeLaURFG2uLtrXfmplVhXlTIvTRZ2bu-riD8Joic6D6cCI1hrXaJVr5yrH9piptYsNlgsCL-AUb2T7RTEYQtEpp3esK7RqGmZU8Keatvp0exWe_2R5GBDbfV0JzD7N_iTBQ9QEN6xMxnlCpLCjWI1yaxfbqJMlQd6vtx7-HmkDa-7/s1600/rut_oct16.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiO3j0ORc5Os-CRxt7BFAbMJfbbg9X1-WrGN3KwpFqISogk2BmAD7IvWA9mN3eyP7NVhPh1ZNnudeXSqasrZEzzq0fg1A29QjG54UeNtsDuh0wG5Z-iKDEP_qXXFSFBdQ8VHOqM2wScT-YaYEk_boOKsQagj8VhUzXOG1deJgjDZOWI3m1867Is/s1600/rut_oct16w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiO3j0ORc5Os-CRxt7BFAbMJfbbg9X1-WrGN3KwpFqISogk2BmAD7IvWA9mN3eyP7NVhPh1ZNnudeXSqasrZEzzq0fg1A29QjG54UeNtsDuh0wG5Z-iKDEP_qXXFSFBdQ8VHOqM2wScT-YaYEk_boOKsQagj8VhUzXOG1deJgjDZOWI3m1867Is/s1600/rut_oct16w.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>Semiconductors continue to lose ground, but it's not the collapse that headlines suggest. However, the drop below 12.5K has left a sizable "bull trap" that effectively means the 200-day MA - and 10,450 - will likely see a test in the weeks ahead. But going forward, I would be looking for a measured move lower that could bring 6K into play. Now that sounds like (and is) a big drop, but the index *peaked* at 5,472 in 2024. I think we are just going back to a more rational Semiconductor bull trend as a consolidation in the AI sector is long overdue. Look at the Fib clustering around 5,500, another reason to suggest we could see such a test.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEWIQ9Exv1LMTLDywHkJp36a12nM-Iad8_27uGmbtrjv9oVCuHKs3fWOVobVsBu5GyP5dFd1pnz-H9lrJzs6AXBKix37jHikRiS7RPa9Xb0e1Z8ibEY3MtFOcqgefRqoUdM5yLC-TPMbPNoaO7tuyVfPJEh3oz3HFROUvgcfA6vnBKZCouIB4P/s1600/sox_oct16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEWIQ9Exv1LMTLDywHkJp36a12nM-Iad8_27uGmbtrjv9oVCuHKs3fWOVobVsBu5GyP5dFd1pnz-H9lrJzs6AXBKix37jHikRiS7RPa9Xb0e1Z8ibEY3MtFOcqgefRqoUdM5yLC-TPMbPNoaO7tuyVfPJEh3oz3HFROUvgcfA6vnBKZCouIB4P/s1600/sox_oct16.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiORc1FSak7pFfKqnLkJ1eDr0jr1XlMfwZUr5IXS9jYOfBQ8J2ZyOq-DVpOscS5bV7yLY9PUtzi4NPznndSCtNtZmJGnTHqnf3og9tURgPcErZmICafW44sPHWZOr0goxJMaGbW-P8mBKAyKlUeXu4sf2FoBNV1kxJSy8SxFx_cvMm_aa15mvtg/s1600/sox_oct16w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiORc1FSak7pFfKqnLkJ1eDr0jr1XlMfwZUr5IXS9jYOfBQ8J2ZyOq-DVpOscS5bV7yLY9PUtzi4NPznndSCtNtZmJGnTHqnf3og9tURgPcErZmICafW44sPHWZOr0goxJMaGbW-P8mBKAyKlUeXu4sf2FoBNV1kxJSy8SxFx_cvMm_aa15mvtg/s1600/sox_oct16w.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCw7Nb6Z1Y_gU6m-ix6AKPKTmSXOsqEgAvIaX0R4HyoTqxNyjmhkmesBbqIX2m7E3w-7UDQiSPdF2q_R2AyAeL7sgUFgIvm9ZPFORHvJxvMVIAHgcIjzYybGcYj_Aovk6DMqqo7YLyiRpR0R4QPsQOJN5vxvKmypw82FYjAoo2RrjLkuGSL3VK/s1600/sox_oct16w2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCw7Nb6Z1Y_gU6m-ix6AKPKTmSXOsqEgAvIaX0R4HyoTqxNyjmhkmesBbqIX2m7E3w-7UDQiSPdF2q_R2AyAeL7sgUFgIvm9ZPFORHvJxvMVIAHgcIjzYybGcYj_Aovk6DMqqo7YLyiRpR0R4QPsQOJN5vxvKmypw82FYjAoo2RrjLkuGSL3VK/s1600/sox_oct16w2.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average and equal-weighted S&P have tagged their respective 50-day MAs, both rejected the tests on spike highs. Note how the real-body of Friday's candlestick in $SPXEW tagged July resistance. A close above this line (and 50-day MA by association) would be enough to negate the bearishness from Friday. <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWLxO-OX9l60rze2so6uGuPU2Le8ZbEPOkI3tl_D7Ke1_IB8b-rShlAj8SIzfor0r8xWh-A8lMFQ6yiBCCxT18dy3H8D-RiohB3J0XUBu27sSN-vNNqohEZO_FMQkLotlD0DmOv3w03aAsOYGCshalCnWsWKvB9KGFUjf2nCoKBCOFibZHYJTe/s1600/spx_oct16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWLxO-OX9l60rze2so6uGuPU2Le8ZbEPOkI3tl_D7Ke1_IB8b-rShlAj8SIzfor0r8xWh-A8lMFQ6yiBCCxT18dy3H8D-RiohB3J0XUBu27sSN-vNNqohEZO_FMQkLotlD0DmOv3w03aAsOYGCshalCnWsWKvB9KGFUjf2nCoKBCOFibZHYJTe/s1600/spx_oct16.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrCJMz_S-UHdfhevCaeIvqhV8t7K5Nrl6PIAjcwfiU3lgJHYPtM7t_WgDcXtYWCeOxURCGxkizgLbFRiA4KcQ1zmz4d9ihCsRxOO_FGmLlvmV0HsmLJQtRJab0QoeNKHS2Yp5LgGU1yzDzqYotr1SFLnBar7YzU517RW8W2ZSat57BFeK_dmKO/s1600/indu_oct16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrCJMz_S-UHdfhevCaeIvqhV8t7K5Nrl6PIAjcwfiU3lgJHYPtM7t_WgDcXtYWCeOxURCGxkizgLbFRiA4KcQ1zmz4d9ihCsRxOO_FGmLlvmV0HsmLJQtRJab0QoeNKHS2Yp5LgGU1yzDzqYotr1SFLnBar7YzU517RW8W2ZSat57BFeK_dmKO/s1600/indu_oct16.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The weighted S&P is still holding its 7,600 breakout, but Friday's candlestick left it on weak support and below 20-day and 50-day MAs. If the index loses 7,600 support, then 7,250 comes into play along with a test of the 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYKu4hWBhStNGrziDiSJWslRWZNSDn1kXm645gvhYdW_vI-t5vhQoAo-K0IBoLY12udlHDzga-_4umfax_4GggMe-5qi-eKyDIDHooPVgeHm3kfrgVPpVK8k4jNMJ9MJeUuXvxbNdh6Rgdb-XmIViDtbDZUGx2HFlF5h7UiED5baLWQR7Q21QT/s1600/spx_oct16b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYKu4hWBhStNGrziDiSJWslRWZNSDn1kXm645gvhYdW_vI-t5vhQoAo-K0IBoLY12udlHDzga-_4umfax_4GggMe-5qi-eKyDIDHooPVgeHm3kfrgVPpVK8k4jNMJ9MJeUuXvxbNdh6Rgdb-XmIViDtbDZUGx2HFlF5h7UiED5baLWQR7Q21QT/s1600/spx_oct16b.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is in a bad state. It's may find some early week support at 26K, but it does look destined to test its 200-day MA, before losing that battle and falling to a trading range test of 24.5K. But even then, it will likely lose that test too, particularly if Semiconductors freefall. Technicals for this index are not oversold, so no crash warning, yet...</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR4NmC9EbkuHouVaRplfxazgkf3eHnKFkqTGlSMSGYy7Ndvy5JhllcowN7FE5wu55oKW5gBiU-TOg5BTc8gNG_I3r-dty5PESzbHvfbwjlvUorCsIvrnnASIRgx3ayKlT8C3dZvJhKpBXUoC45JB0LsS0Ha78qAVsJ28p2fD-Vz70mAL98Uyyk/s1600/nas_oct16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR4NmC9EbkuHouVaRplfxazgkf3eHnKFkqTGlSMSGYy7Ndvy5JhllcowN7FE5wu55oKW5gBiU-TOg5BTc8gNG_I3r-dty5PESzbHvfbwjlvUorCsIvrnnASIRgx3ayKlT8C3dZvJhKpBXUoC45JB0LsS0Ha78qAVsJ28p2fD-Vz70mAL98Uyyk/s1600/nas_oct16.png"/></a></div> <p>On the Nasdaq weekly chart, we have a wedge breakdown with 20K support a target for early 2027.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbz1zvz2hTms0Og_YBMzJ7Gu2162Rd_X9jyfpm2grJimOqOadRCy122i2rKyF7C3hIAGY71PpnZgjwe61hK_pvNdMSM3oaJLJ2cMfMjgYyv2fi18dcfq7GunnZrkJv5zaTvkd0QTLUGq18Rk2-e7Ej9bfi0T6-lKcdJ4HOvQC2PfHNtdgQgYiq/s1600/nas_ovt16w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbz1zvz2hTms0Og_YBMzJ7Gu2162Rd_X9jyfpm2grJimOqOadRCy122i2rKyF7C3hIAGY71PpnZgjwe61hK_pvNdMSM3oaJLJ2cMfMjgYyv2fi18dcfq7GunnZrkJv5zaTvkd0QTLUGq18Rk2-e7Ej9bfi0T6-lKcdJ4HOvQC2PfHNtdgQgYiq/s1600/nas_ovt16w.png"/></a></div> <p>As for Bitcoin, I had a 'buy' on the 50-day MA "hammer", but with the drift into the spike low there is an increasing chance this reversal candlestick will fail. You don't want to see the real body of a candlestick close inside a previous candles' spike - it reduces the significance of the demand (or supply) caused by the spike. If you were long and had fished for a 'buy' order inside the spike, you may want to get out while you can without a loss and wait and see what comes next.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6GI6K8pJtmg_TaQbuumkAW87oo3wJFqAdYfaOefRE09deEpwZA_uZ4BQyPFm03ASdUVH714kWnAl5AddhXtK6qAX6IWw5p3I7leS2u8aIiz1DHrj_4YzeFqcu8csxoUfMm0ylyJxp6Buko2V4TeX6ju32HhywpyJlx2mHn5B7aWPoBprKEw_m/s1600/btcusd_oct16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6GI6K8pJtmg_TaQbuumkAW87oo3wJFqAdYfaOefRE09deEpwZA_uZ4BQyPFm03ASdUVH714kWnAl5AddhXtK6qAX6IWw5p3I7leS2u8aIiz1DHrj_4YzeFqcu8csxoUfMm0ylyJxp6Buko2V4TeX6ju32HhywpyJlx2mHn5B7aWPoBprKEw_m/s1600/btcusd_oct16.png"/></a></div> <p>Lots to ponder heading into next week. Semiconductors look set for a big trim, but even a big loss would do little to end the rally kicked off in 2009, turned into a secular bull market in 2014, and should run into 2034+. Other indices will take their lead from this. The loss in the Russell 2000 is perhaps the most damaging, because it was a long term underperformer before it found some form in late 2025. We don't want to see it drop below $240 as this would point to a broader decline in investor interest across sectors and stocks big and small.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-75286271505303068182026-10-15T23:26:31.286+01:002026-10-15T23:26:31.286+01:00<p>Buyers step up after yesterday's losses, losses that registered as distribution. Buyers returned on good volume, and in some cases, exceeded the losses of yesterday. But the buying was not necessarily enough to reverse the damage of Wednesday's losses.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) did not survive its third test of its 200-day MA in the space of a couple of weeks. Technicals are now net bearish with a new (strong) MACD 'sell' trigger. Traders need to be careful here. Today's buying (a "two-bar reversal") in an oversold condition should register as a long-trade opportunity, and it may yet still do, but with the psychological break of the 200-day MA it's hard to see this turning into a strong bounce. And we are now in the kind of situation where crashes emerge. We should see a move to the 200-day or even the 20-day MA, but beyond that, it's hard to say.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDMZRMXfMsdrH214VjHzwlBNjWkUcD53Nao93hzNO3b_aYECCVMTB4ue21dEzNPcBQmJkMu1tt0xBQIvG9ubMH20nJSiFbRjfsajjizmD8ozT00yjkAPRmpkWO4x-uXhFmHXQoqT3EALFAbLaDDK6geYswFRb0q1YfOFQuj-sV3PP711p90wgv/s1600/iwm_oct15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDMZRMXfMsdrH214VjHzwlBNjWkUcD53Nao93hzNO3b_aYECCVMTB4ue21dEzNPcBQmJkMu1tt0xBQIvG9ubMH20nJSiFbRjfsajjizmD8ozT00yjkAPRmpkWO4x-uXhFmHXQoqT3EALFAbLaDDK6geYswFRb0q1YfOFQuj-sV3PP711p90wgv/s1600/iwm_oct15.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>What I'm liking more is the action in the equal-weighted S&P. Today offered a solid gain, with the 50-day MA as the last piece of resistance before the prior high is challenged. The weighted S&P finished with a bullish piercing pattern that cut across both 20-day and 50-day MAs, but the significance of this is weakened by the lack of an oversold state. However, the equal-weighted S&P is building a good head of steam with technicals improving.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQG7z4STFHz9EO9PDBmF9BKf7Zbwzi44euXzYK6uQjFrPyj-TsbixcOKOvr-Anq7zPWDxFA7aUvF2J_7VOtDpTT3mJH7df2zpAZx5QFS2xouiOsU5dBJ0kJkvgBL-qoIVuVpD_7rmqyq1dJH44tBr3g81LMm0y_3e5ccJDhB-7zA5EdDjB2nOE/s1600/spx_oct15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQG7z4STFHz9EO9PDBmF9BKf7Zbwzi44euXzYK6uQjFrPyj-TsbixcOKOvr-Anq7zPWDxFA7aUvF2J_7VOtDpTT3mJH7df2zpAZx5QFS2xouiOsU5dBJ0kJkvgBL-qoIVuVpD_7rmqyq1dJH44tBr3g81LMm0y_3e5ccJDhB-7zA5EdDjB2nOE/s1600/spx_oct15.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho2vskDJak_5IgDdP2m57V7N-uabY2j6Ed6KJKVyELd8ntHiiLqs7W9WFJuJapuHlhtoQ8Q_DkyqNG2rmbGxyWZbAaCzAq954eLwkeCU61X9-3XeqVhkzeXK3tdBkqHfrcbrCkp9HBvBgBX8lCrYc3l1vpSt-y5RCYp-T92kKjT9Bh1CgCvwyI/s1600/spxew_oct15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho2vskDJak_5IgDdP2m57V7N-uabY2j6Ed6KJKVyELd8ntHiiLqs7W9WFJuJapuHlhtoQ8Q_DkyqNG2rmbGxyWZbAaCzAq954eLwkeCU61X9-3XeqVhkzeXK3tdBkqHfrcbrCkp9HBvBgBX8lCrYc3l1vpSt-y5RCYp-T92kKjT9Bh1CgCvwyI/s1600/spxew_oct15.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is in a interesting position. We had a fake breakout that ended in a 'bearish evening start, before morphing into a "bull trap". As is typical of "bull traps" we can look for a move back to prior trading range support with the first level at 26K and then 24.5K. Technicals are mixed but are likely to move more bearish over the coming days and weeks. Today's gain didn't make enough inroads into yesterday's candle to be considered bullish, but we may yet see a weak bounce.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhddT2L-FoGFU-hnj7ouBVsI4lKfpQObF_wF_r2DCQC3VfwxKg9M5grivZGZv_FeZhfn-F5T8oGztldAv9Yl8Vs16wibkt2xAK_oPGPppliueeCLiUnoJAZYJ0sIYte54WBhxuLQC_QsGTR8DNXD66C0bPqrLPpwIBIb32OpXiNmXMQ_1ZJ_PiU/s1600/compq_oct15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhddT2L-FoGFU-hnj7ouBVsI4lKfpQObF_wF_r2DCQC3VfwxKg9M5grivZGZv_FeZhfn-F5T8oGztldAv9Yl8Vs16wibkt2xAK_oPGPppliueeCLiUnoJAZYJ0sIYte54WBhxuLQC_QsGTR8DNXD66C0bPqrLPpwIBIb32OpXiNmXMQ_1ZJ_PiU/s1600/compq_oct15.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has shown mixed action over the last couple of weeks, but today's bullish hammer on the 50-day MA is a reason for optimism, combined with today's higher volume accumulation. The only downside is I would have liked stochastics to have tested the mid-line. Volume has been trending lower since the breakout, but a few more days like today will reverse that. This is a long trade opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq6rmuxgOyk9isFgp9GxKqrX-Co-9BYvjyilygagoeEQi6OTEa2Nyr9LX_xlzBlr55F3Vkc0MqGdwrORh58TGkljAVvEEyKelMSX3NY8WYnGiRYm5EtUii-sr5tWIEKXPWvbcrsQ_Bc1oYqO0ClgM2d1m34MErv-Wky_Wq5XvKbQ3uZB1e7QHQ/s1600/btcusd_oct15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq6rmuxgOyk9isFgp9GxKqrX-Co-9BYvjyilygagoeEQi6OTEa2Nyr9LX_xlzBlr55F3Vkc0MqGdwrORh58TGkljAVvEEyKelMSX3NY8WYnGiRYm5EtUii-sr5tWIEKXPWvbcrsQ_Bc1oYqO0ClgM2d1m34MErv-Wky_Wq5XvKbQ3uZB1e7QHQ/s1600/btcusd_oct15.png"/></a></div> <p>The bearish engulfing pattern in the Dow Industrial Average has almost been negated. Technicals have improved with only stochastics bearish. Next up is the 50-day MA, similar to the equal-weighted S&P.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwjmTE3EFuSi9aBIQTl4vJFFHe9f15Rp20SfnqEedxDuKIabK1AUOMv0QgvbRQAUzWwZBZFEl5kzTopQPYK6n_OPPoAcZ2T115-FFCpI5qqJcwVwvReD1zL__Cf-L-SPiysQ_bnzhW-x0_GM-iFhtXs9beEGp3H1DN9P-1imhLDunK5DmpAhQv/s1600/indu_oct15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwjmTE3EFuSi9aBIQTl4vJFFHe9f15Rp20SfnqEedxDuKIabK1AUOMv0QgvbRQAUzWwZBZFEl5kzTopQPYK6n_OPPoAcZ2T115-FFCpI5qqJcwVwvReD1zL__Cf-L-SPiysQ_bnzhW-x0_GM-iFhtXs9beEGp3H1DN9P-1imhLDunK5DmpAhQv/s1600/indu_oct15.png"/></a></div> <p>The Semiconductor Index drifted back into its base and is looking at a test of its 200-day MA. Technicals are net bearish but are not oversold. The last point is important as crashes occur (when they do) when stochastics are oversold, but this is not the case here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkZkG7KGEMBi2gPe-CHPamy-s4phdMrCNMkOE1Qp3WA4Tg3XiSlgTQpKb3Moq-GT_rjhJP2H2daJ0eF8kZscfAqKYvBE7p-R7faONKLjGxylUPKBsoT6W7CEJRCJtmalY976GIgy-UHKw-ToTLLvygkVIGdwFDETIazsxiMJjPep0lQ20Kj6ir/s1600/sox_oct15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkZkG7KGEMBi2gPe-CHPamy-s4phdMrCNMkOE1Qp3WA4Tg3XiSlgTQpKb3Moq-GT_rjhJP2H2daJ0eF8kZscfAqKYvBE7p-R7faONKLjGxylUPKBsoT6W7CEJRCJtmalY976GIgy-UHKw-ToTLLvygkVIGdwFDETIazsxiMJjPep0lQ20Kj6ir/s1600/sox_oct15.png"/></a></div> <p>A mixed bag across indices. The Russell 2000 had looked like the one to offer the tradeable bounce, but this has failed since the undercut of the 200-day MA. The equal-weighted S&P and Dow are workable long trades. The S&P and Nasdaq may bounce, but such a bounce is likely to lead to a short play rather than one to cling onto as a long.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-50954073115173983382026-10-13T23:39:11.268+01:002026-10-13T23:44:17.972+01:00<p>It has been a bit of a mixed bag for indices as bulls looks to restablish breakouts and/or defend support. However, shorts may be the one to benefit in the near term. The S&P is getting squeezed into the 'bull trap' left by the inverse hammer. It's a good swing trade play, but given today's higher volume distribution I would look for a bearish break with a near term target of 50-day MA. Technicals are mostly bullish, but On-Balance-Volume has been trending down since August - running against price action.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja1yHmLL-WBhZ4n1oJHB_HEUS8jx-wDjBES0fFAKkFY_R25O2mp89Ya7i7HeDaK4dgMEx729APiqpy4pDSoZ12rvx-oCcS6ap-xeUQWT_hT3-M8Rb_ZC9rq3xdQjkS8v3A8RI-sOS8w5dyNUKROBkzMoojKI67AUTzMIvhrbd4E7q4b3-VrVJ6/s1600/spx_oct13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja1yHmLL-WBhZ4n1oJHB_HEUS8jx-wDjBES0fFAKkFY_R25O2mp89Ya7i7HeDaK4dgMEx729APiqpy4pDSoZ12rvx-oCcS6ap-xeUQWT_hT3-M8Rb_ZC9rq3xdQjkS8v3A8RI-sOS8w5dyNUKROBkzMoojKI67AUTzMIvhrbd4E7q4b3-VrVJ6/s1600/spx_oct13.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) returned to its 200-day MA in a manner that suggests this support may not hold, particularly as volume registered as distribution. Technicals are mostly bearish bar a weak MACD 'buy' signal. Next support sits at the May swing low, but that itself may not be enough either.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnSdTLBFH25zKFHUSbrqSPpoKnmfxCWSMf01Lh46tQnYdoJfza2kANbCyCopIIHba9Y_k-RMt4wYOd_kEcqL9VKye1SBVXlLf6vQwCiZFeZzypwo50_AfHGOqMf1M89HtmckSH3PwuSSyxUab4Lz2zcRgHtCZCPAeetSBegCKKKMhARJeZql83/s1600/iwm_oct13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnSdTLBFH25zKFHUSbrqSPpoKnmfxCWSMf01Lh46tQnYdoJfza2kANbCyCopIIHba9Y_k-RMt4wYOd_kEcqL9VKye1SBVXlLf6vQwCiZFeZzypwo50_AfHGOqMf1M89HtmckSH3PwuSSyxUab4Lz2zcRgHtCZCPAeetSBegCKKKMhARJeZql83/s1600/iwm_oct13.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P managed to maintain its breakout, which may yet be in a position to help the weighted S&P if it can continue its move towards its 50-day MA</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXVzxNbPgDwOoBLB0jlzT7qYJx1DC1le_0PM1xurnsJzyREE3QhHyu2TEIg203JcU4ysImdaPwuJDZVLjLBd3krAqjGMBLAEoH2KQmUCYmkUDeGIWq3LLxc3PZbntDPcMzQe0pOCcQbUrIWhR2yOtfyWCCGn2XgHPOf8B5belaH1QQr5okMfKC/s1600/spx_ew_oct13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXVzxNbPgDwOoBLB0jlzT7qYJx1DC1le_0PM1xurnsJzyREE3QhHyu2TEIg203JcU4ysImdaPwuJDZVLjLBd3krAqjGMBLAEoH2KQmUCYmkUDeGIWq3LLxc3PZbntDPcMzQe0pOCcQbUrIWhR2yOtfyWCCGn2XgHPOf8B5belaH1QQr5okMfKC/s1600/spx_ew_oct13.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is threatening to lose its breakout, but it managed to regain enough ground to hold support by today's close. For tomorrow, watch for a move back to test its 20-day MA, and from there, its 50-day MA if it doesn't look like it will hold.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEf1i43tA2kAb6e696TUMI9iZdXoZODqfKQ-1ujIV01IijX_E9dYofdC9Yhx386ER4EzszNkCPPenNQAWuMAC0GAdj3_ex3oItPF60NjbN3QTWdItLcZHXmmb_cVDEJ1E_0B47tpWJ-p-jxBdCHmRqciDqiK_z_UqSolsQGrzzUoY7VlrM7hsH/s1600/nas_cot13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEf1i43tA2kAb6e696TUMI9iZdXoZODqfKQ-1ujIV01IijX_E9dYofdC9Yhx386ER4EzszNkCPPenNQAWuMAC0GAdj3_ex3oItPF60NjbN3QTWdItLcZHXmmb_cVDEJ1E_0B47tpWJ-p-jxBdCHmRqciDqiK_z_UqSolsQGrzzUoY7VlrM7hsH/s1600/nas_cot13.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin went from short to possible long play in the space of a day. I like today's bullish piercing pattern on higher volume accumultion, but technicals are mostly bearish, particularly selling from September.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwYU-b-IZWzQ8BvPELuigz-rXRimD6YOP-4TyF0aGC8fMbwNytuQ9askswBLmXqUpw7FknJuht4jnBd0LjCG5pOkSu6eCN5cKBGhSbidzeTCl3MFrypg95t4JUtwsPI6WMNgNdN1_Y3A4KWq_fRbTAMXWzNzPGEFVkV1syf9uEjxDZZ1ABR7Q/s1600/btcusd_oct13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwYU-b-IZWzQ8BvPELuigz-rXRimD6YOP-4TyF0aGC8fMbwNytuQ9askswBLmXqUpw7FknJuht4jnBd0LjCG5pOkSu6eCN5cKBGhSbidzeTCl3MFrypg95t4JUtwsPI6WMNgNdN1_Y3A4KWq_fRbTAMXWzNzPGEFVkV1syf9uEjxDZZ1ABR7Q/s1600/btcusd_oct13.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrial Average finished on a bearish engulfing pattern on higher volume distribution. If this follows through lower tomorrow it would open a target of its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOicoM3Nh15BPOFJYZByy0l6Z1oJyBpMUEz7FxY8vtTOc2trNdzHDSO3_x43sIwQxn3bYHOzOz335ur8ewTfqLACh8Td7e7QOKh9mXCRiSVJ-XfPxgNwCStSX-bUDjL4pVqk_jbodR9h6wUx2n0yk8i7-jEGto2vEtGj7wT0LCvo-YEUUBvCoa/s1600/indu_oct13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOicoM3Nh15BPOFJYZByy0l6Z1oJyBpMUEz7FxY8vtTOc2trNdzHDSO3_x43sIwQxn3bYHOzOz335ur8ewTfqLACh8Td7e7QOKh9mXCRiSVJ-XfPxgNwCStSX-bUDjL4pVqk_jbodR9h6wUx2n0yk8i7-jEGto2vEtGj7wT0LCvo-YEUUBvCoa/s1600/indu_oct13.png"/></a></div> <p>Something to watch is how Nasdaq breadth metrics play out for the remainder of the year. If you look at the decline in the Nasdaq Summation Index in 2024 it's playing a similar bearish divergence now as it did then. The difference is that the end result of the decline to sub -1,000 came with a hard sell off in the Nasdaq index. The current decline, now at -690, has seen no such correction in the Nasdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh61uxMxfqZEuy_q1IhedW3XuVXUumoRlMfgoO3ldYGLEVEXaKse5Ah2Fn1l_so-u4j64GHQ-Hyb5DpxiTRu6chaOc6jLYSwqjjkWyF4u2I16fMtVUcovYc_hmk9dV8AImO9dC9llFNBRDntYyk4OONml2PFdncjCLE_ZNg8i2Dc8HaKlz3z6Tl/s1600/nasi_oct13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="770" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh61uxMxfqZEuy_q1IhedW3XuVXUumoRlMfgoO3ldYGLEVEXaKse5Ah2Fn1l_so-u4j64GHQ-Hyb5DpxiTRu6chaOc6jLYSwqjjkWyF4u2I16fMtVUcovYc_hmk9dV8AImO9dC9llFNBRDntYyk4OONml2PFdncjCLE_ZNg8i2Dc8HaKlz3z6Tl/s1600/nasi_oct13.png"/></a></div> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-33382946427373128532026-10-11T22:53:23.265+01:002026-10-11T22:53:23.265+01:00<p>After reversing from its 20-day MA it managed to find support at its 200-day MA with a bullish 'hammer' at oversold conditions on heavy volume - an ideal reversal scenario. Friday's trading brought a more indecisive spinning top, but it did manage to close higher. For Monday, we will want to see what happens when it gets back to the 20-day MA responsible for the reversal on the sizable bearish engulfing pattern.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjONxIbHKTWbMUDINK_IMlPLga_j2_GVY3l-TLH8hu57XJHWneDosGCsUluhanK87PEg73q0jUXc3tVNhH4daBui9mibAxLSLGmVZyHBLQYwdiVVol9jtL9CJth-bHrX5f2mbAU2OQvD812nN_PEAkWzmZb39nwPGtDxuDtytNnVSSmZqueUUur/s1600/iwm_oct11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjONxIbHKTWbMUDINK_IMlPLga_j2_GVY3l-TLH8hu57XJHWneDosGCsUluhanK87PEg73q0jUXc3tVNhH4daBui9mibAxLSLGmVZyHBLQYwdiVVol9jtL9CJth-bHrX5f2mbAU2OQvD812nN_PEAkWzmZb39nwPGtDxuDtytNnVSSmZqueUUur/s1600/iwm_oct11.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>There were bullish developments in other indices too. The equal-weighted S&P - after running along channnel resistance - finally cleared that resistance. There was only a weak MACD 'buy' sginal to go with the breakout and other technicals are bearish, so there may be another swing lower before we see a true recovery rally.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8shV3OSwRW2cZ4-wb9a5bDkJmiSms-McTB5rsMizAq2C9CUMJf5e2QesD6kFeCBcZn5X6NjAP1w9FhXjJBlayGyFlo85GBYQUC7pB1H27SXa0_MArLI-hQFZOZ_jIHmwkimtbF19t00KqKDLbP8jJrJ4YBny8ySf4AHl8DZ9fVbt6qhnbATP2/s1600/spxew_oct11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8shV3OSwRW2cZ4-wb9a5bDkJmiSms-McTB5rsMizAq2C9CUMJf5e2QesD6kFeCBcZn5X6NjAP1w9FhXjJBlayGyFlo85GBYQUC7pB1H27SXa0_MArLI-hQFZOZ_jIHmwkimtbF19t00KqKDLbP8jJrJ4YBny8ySf4AHl8DZ9fVbt6qhnbATP2/s1600/spxew_oct11.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P had generated a mixed signal with its Inverse Hammer breakout. The subsequent undercut of breakout support (former resistance) left this as a more powerful 'bull trap', but Friday's action brought the index back to challenge the 'bull trap' and if it can resume the breakout it would be bullish across all indices.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifJ18ercS5g2reE0LtC4BOQD3fLeC2KNf6viHsCWI1rcctkWID_GbpnCIxaqLzZokpnklLm9e_CCqusan2PVykKRSVbcrsCWXhOwg7n76ZF1EeuNq4bMKBCo1XFhsCjShG5zhmSh9QDFsNZMqZnubtJgb2O-FA6zV29SIDSge0cUSakjR7qzzv/s1600/spx_oct9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifJ18ercS5g2reE0LtC4BOQD3fLeC2KNf6viHsCWI1rcctkWID_GbpnCIxaqLzZokpnklLm9e_CCqusan2PVykKRSVbcrsCWXhOwg7n76ZF1EeuNq4bMKBCo1XFhsCjShG5zhmSh9QDFsNZMqZnubtJgb2O-FA6zV29SIDSge0cUSakjR7qzzv/s1600/spx_oct9.png"/></a></div> <p>Running closer to the equal-weighted S&P is the Dow Industrial Average. It found a swing low on a 'dragonfly' doji before Friday's gain pushed a break of its 20-day MA. There was a weak MACD trigger 'buy', supported by a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. Given the move above its 20-day MA, I would now be looking for a move to challenge its 50-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtH0QAfdkEWhfemIHXlh1MLRyokHbLLgs8YJp2xrNQjoWBtJeu_jqpZqdwfo_eXzP9x5tCy3qx0dQEZUNXPgAomy2_HsizjSWIU_IvdCnVytsI3-EyzMR_Zr8L7zj93pfCVeb9SUltsMh-ylkNbqqTh33dVPHAO2IuLolIFZdFh6WbCwloOYIK/s1600/indu_ocy9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtH0QAfdkEWhfemIHXlh1MLRyokHbLLgs8YJp2xrNQjoWBtJeu_jqpZqdwfo_eXzP9x5tCy3qx0dQEZUNXPgAomy2_HsizjSWIU_IvdCnVytsI3-EyzMR_Zr8L7zj93pfCVeb9SUltsMh-ylkNbqqTh33dVPHAO2IuLolIFZdFh6WbCwloOYIK/s1600/indu_ocy9.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq staged a modest breakout that had come under selling pressure, but Friday's gain was enough to restore the breakout on the back of bullish net technicals. Of the indices, it's the most bullish, and therefore the index best placed to continue with bullish momentum.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiFOTDfC4FSJoY0QY5Rq-LqoLFAMayu2ixoC8vcLHzJ4A6Z_tq6TJW3KWHnZAo4u2XCfFBn6rfNqBCaEfMvk9B-KK3FCtidw7egLx_V_mQNvPt3YFONEm3oX2fyyflzmqfg0cblNLkhVqJwCvXeeyZfbvgmwQu8QfH35w4nfI92U56xci-rPqk/s1600/nas_oct11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiFOTDfC4FSJoY0QY5Rq-LqoLFAMayu2ixoC8vcLHzJ4A6Z_tq6TJW3KWHnZAo4u2XCfFBn6rfNqBCaEfMvk9B-KK3FCtidw7egLx_V_mQNvPt3YFONEm3oX2fyyflzmqfg0cblNLkhVqJwCvXeeyZfbvgmwQu8QfH35w4nfI92U56xci-rPqk/s1600/nas_oct11.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is looking vulnerable having failed twice to break-and-hold $87K. The narrow bounce we saw last week looks destined to follow through lower, which wil mean the base development I had been looking for will take a little longer. The first choke point will come when the 20-day MA merges with the 50-day MA; if we see an undercut of the 50-day MA then next up will be a test of the 200-day MA. Aggressive shorts can attack the test of the 20-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2iEKs1kr-g0msV1b-eaNNFvOYPqIyuvrF3qfEzHOrFNcCiiNQC8QiZ-F42xGYeYhXnoRdUgyTFGPOelaY_tgrmqsTRrlDTbnpCMgyT9IBh1khUoRM1AKVuzscoMm5Irh4d0B7jZbmWDLONDWr2kuX6iCK4sVyF6FwnUx2RBwTeTzWNgMv3FrO/s1600/btccusd_oct9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2iEKs1kr-g0msV1b-eaNNFvOYPqIyuvrF3qfEzHOrFNcCiiNQC8QiZ-F42xGYeYhXnoRdUgyTFGPOelaY_tgrmqsTRrlDTbnpCMgyT9IBh1khUoRM1AKVuzscoMm5Irh4d0B7jZbmWDLONDWr2kuX6iCK4sVyF6FwnUx2RBwTeTzWNgMv3FrO/s1600/btccusd_oct9.png"/></a></div> <p>So a mix of the bullish: Dow Industrial Average, Russell 2000, Nasdaq and equal-weighted S&P, and bearish with Bitcoin and potentially, the S&P.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-30705049733804469502026-10-06T23:10:19.385+01:002026-10-06T23:10:19.386+01:00<p>Markets are breaking two ways - Small Caps heading south while Tech and Large Caps head north, but even Small Caps have reason for optimism.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) bounced off its 200-day MA, reaching its 20-day MA until today's reversal dragged it back with a bearish engulfing pattern. Despite the bearish candlestick the MACD still managed a 'buy' trigger and selling volume was light. I would be looking for a bullish test and buyers to step in. Momentum is slowly improving, so I'll be watching for bullish divergence in technicals.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh68dnExZRgIDD2kqWfNH_nxt0HkQ0GsXJ4sWei1_hRSJqQC__yVMk9INv0Hw6j93KDj9e6HIa4BFVG_oEsaOfk4qNO3AUnhkua9ZwLcD-i41xh2HbdJxTGUFmfGJcpAspfdrN7UBPS4vKtat3XZX2jfYwBxTwL5mHQp_-HvjRmgzB9VnJt_Kls/s1600/iwm_oct6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh68dnExZRgIDD2kqWfNH_nxt0HkQ0GsXJ4sWei1_hRSJqQC__yVMk9INv0Hw6j93KDj9e6HIa4BFVG_oEsaOfk4qNO3AUnhkua9ZwLcD-i41xh2HbdJxTGUFmfGJcpAspfdrN7UBPS4vKtat3XZX2jfYwBxTwL5mHQp_-HvjRmgzB9VnJt_Kls/s1600/iwm_oct6.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P made it back to channel resistance and its 20-day MA. Like the Russell 2000, it saw a new MACD trigger 'buy'. While I marked this as a possible shorting opportunity at resistance (stop on break of today's high), if starts the day brightly it could post a nice breakout.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidiBNAk9VuEbDizBDxrwD9dEdCv11B5XJsWwQaPrQeyvv4Nt3aWUAD8NnwGw4m1RoRA_h-NH2VUjeBdYNPiMFE0iWvuZgULThBd9pPSeFJz6EbfLo4lBCQqh_T8z8_utn7lT_WG7qNusynAvbeXiqfVbE_6Wq9P2H-reqyjtDgkJ21I-Ma2tp4/s1600/spxew_oct6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidiBNAk9VuEbDizBDxrwD9dEdCv11B5XJsWwQaPrQeyvv4Nt3aWUAD8NnwGw4m1RoRA_h-NH2VUjeBdYNPiMFE0iWvuZgULThBd9pPSeFJz6EbfLo4lBCQqh_T8z8_utn7lT_WG7qNusynAvbeXiqfVbE_6Wq9P2H-reqyjtDgkJ21I-Ma2tp4/s1600/spxew_oct6.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P marked its own interest with a break of 7.8K resistance that was enough to negate the August 'bull trap'. The inverse hammer has the potential to become a bearish 'evening star' - an opening gap down would go a long way towards reaching that goal (creating a new 'bull trap' in the process). But, if we see a close into today's spike high I would have far greater confidence of this breakout succeeding. Technicals are net bullish and I liked how stochastics bounced off the mid-line (a bull market retracement).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBJ3Puh815K_OBa7wqH9K6cYK4-rqp1rLraAX8F7YY6dyK2qrNO2wz26SjsXC3I2Km-HKWVJWn-4sJC4QH3eH6tgc4e16qvw1-zWzQ9teqafT6JU9fjMqK0bSOGeiLXZSXB6zu_cMjuZS0GmXmCjhq2l0LIbpU4nK54wV7epQnyHqnliC6fozq/s1600/spx_oct6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBJ3Puh815K_OBa7wqH9K6cYK4-rqp1rLraAX8F7YY6dyK2qrNO2wz26SjsXC3I2Km-HKWVJWn-4sJC4QH3eH6tgc4e16qvw1-zWzQ9teqafT6JU9fjMqK0bSOGeiLXZSXB6zu_cMjuZS0GmXmCjhq2l0LIbpU4nK54wV7epQnyHqnliC6fozq/s1600/spx_oct6.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq posted a cleaner breakout on Monday before it flashed today's indecisive doji. Technicals are net bullish. Today's volume was lighter, but yesterday's volume registered as accumulation.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgELKBoDiJkVyAJQ1dCWob24sn0VI-ma8NlbbcfaRmDOdZm0PKGI_40weIsDr0GjGcG-aLX2tDcX3zla4uEMtpROkhmyIgblI9RJm_1oRkjCrnUR-iliULqNHL9LMAHj_yUiK-ojZ4Tram_4_H69e_x9DrWj_JzkEVa2YinqU_x0JWYAOW13IRS/s1600/compq_oct6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgELKBoDiJkVyAJQ1dCWob24sn0VI-ma8NlbbcfaRmDOdZm0PKGI_40weIsDr0GjGcG-aLX2tDcX3zla4uEMtpROkhmyIgblI9RJm_1oRkjCrnUR-iliULqNHL9LMAHj_yUiK-ojZ4Tram_4_H69e_x9DrWj_JzkEVa2YinqU_x0JWYAOW13IRS/s1600/compq_oct6.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin was primed to follow through on the confirmed test of the $82.5K breakout, but the past two days may be setting up a short play - or at least a move to take out stops. A rapid intraday move back to $82.5K may actually offer GTC buy orders a chance to take advantage of the stop-knockout. Alternatively, shorts may get a 1-2 day play - covering on the $82.5K test.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4mgVoV763TPRIx_edhsn3C5iIBt0BErHgOE4_1jr8kidbRaK_DwGiDTEqkU8j7_MAjGs9FFmd4poUVPhPoPG77Ocis0AAZDeb9uC8qV4lps7VZTmMaX6Hv39y9i56p3CFYbOXqWLcV_wh4O0xUc6HBYsZFETCa3_tfUJgdiqtMEe96oF0NJC5/s750/btcusd_oct6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" height="320" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4mgVoV763TPRIx_edhsn3C5iIBt0BErHgOE4_1jr8kidbRaK_DwGiDTEqkU8j7_MAjGs9FFmd4poUVPhPoPG77Ocis0AAZDeb9uC8qV4lps7VZTmMaX6Hv39y9i56p3CFYbOXqWLcV_wh4O0xUc6HBYsZFETCa3_tfUJgdiqtMEe96oF0NJC5/s320/btcusd_oct6.png"/></a></div> <p>The next mover-and-shaker could be the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQEW). It's on course to challenge $167.50 and generate a breakout. Volume registered as accumulation and technicals are net bullish. Today's 'black' candlestick is bearish, so watch for a move back into yesterday's white candlestick, but I suspect this move will only be temporary.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJhqRMyHu_VHfCJhXlZSiz3GiqX0txmPTPdzaxnU7C3JWN0v5QLRwpwH8eIUpTTuWxNQhh7zyHKloe0cnN3KQaadJD9Her_Y9UZT-3vvEPR5VQaNp6e0c-jh19Rrr19kKy3PYuh0ZzLsbV4MZfC8rd4uum5BFjcV_BKNqep0f4A8qhZYCiwVO0/s1600/qqew_oct6.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJhqRMyHu_VHfCJhXlZSiz3GiqX0txmPTPdzaxnU7C3JWN0v5QLRwpwH8eIUpTTuWxNQhh7zyHKloe0cnN3KQaadJD9Her_Y9UZT-3vvEPR5VQaNp6e0c-jh19Rrr19kKy3PYuh0ZzLsbV4MZfC8rd4uum5BFjcV_BKNqep0f4A8qhZYCiwVO0/s1600/qqew_oct6.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, watch action at resistance. The 'easy' option is to reverse at resistance, but breakouts could feed into each other. The most likely shorting opportunity is Bitcoin, but only for a quick trade, and not if there is a gap higher at the open.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-61740271361999215792026-10-04T22:08:01.464+01:002026-10-04T22:08:01.464+01:00<p>Markets swing lows were undone by early enthusiasm failing to build on opening gaps. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had looked the most likely to shape a bounce worthy of note, but the early gap higher was the extent of the gains and by the close of business we had an indecisive 'black' candlestick style 'spinning top' - not a candle to get excited about. Buyers of the bounce will need to be ready for a move down into the gap, and maybe as far as a second test of the 200-day MA. Technicals are net negative.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj03XEHTLqgY8q-D6LxqIjWb7J1_YGfCcpo0egPeZwY8WTGHML2CEOg0bTqUn5iD9JLRmgwv-S72D6Nx8zzpmT1_jv7IfFb72oZaAhqna62gu-7ldiNMPc-ZuRe5gCW-KojaoUc1Fi6p-tP9uCFpdif9faxPg_u1aZzKKmLQ3IG_D-2i48gKTi8/s1600/iwm_oct4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj03XEHTLqgY8q-D6LxqIjWb7J1_YGfCcpo0egPeZwY8WTGHML2CEOg0bTqUn5iD9JLRmgwv-S72D6Nx8zzpmT1_jv7IfFb72oZaAhqna62gu-7ldiNMPc-ZuRe5gCW-KojaoUc1Fi6p-tP9uCFpdif9faxPg_u1aZzKKmLQ3IG_D-2i48gKTi8/s1600/iwm_oct4.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P managed to post a small gain (unlike the Russell 2000), but the spike high marked a greater influence of sellers over the course of Friday than any early optimism from buyers. Technicals are net negative, but unlike the Russell 2000, we have yet to see a test of the 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgNVDV-CjS-5QIgLzUVTiHj-PW4yXRl-5B2-1vE1DmVnU6TtbdW_IqaG6idX31Ejhc5dgDDZA5SZpIBXsZDOLxu7OykfrjU9-XcOAY-lMrGv4seOWt7UxhTCdMh6jXL1_QyEWqSG9H0YTS3i0PTxuH2i215qVxuZbXigpzg3UJkFnfJRKCx1Fg/s1600/spxew_oct4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgNVDV-CjS-5QIgLzUVTiHj-PW4yXRl-5B2-1vE1DmVnU6TtbdW_IqaG6idX31Ejhc5dgDDZA5SZpIBXsZDOLxu7OykfrjU9-XcOAY-lMrGv4seOWt7UxhTCdMh6jXL1_QyEWqSG9H0YTS3i0PTxuH2i215qVxuZbXigpzg3UJkFnfJRKCx1Fg/s1600/spxew_oct4.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P suffered the same fate as the Russell 2000 - closing on indecisive doji on the gap higher. The index is range bound, and working off the September 'bear trap' rally, so there is a good chance it could kick on from here. Technicals are more mixed, but the index is holding the bullish stochastic mid-line, an important defence for intermediate-term bull markets.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjprSZTCf2Wqsz9LxBlOd0m0hv6GB1LuR7rFMjWGQYwGbeLPuB6AzoviBos9Tp5LiWBQG_QRf6zj3N1-bVmOzrmI_DIM0gxVQzsZliDZGiPCbCpETCrpZXwU2Guw7TwzlAYgM9JqTEE3gXrH1pVHAtWWFbOkBYVlLmzuZHLH8GGZuhg_u0mMMGg/s1600/spx_oct4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjprSZTCf2Wqsz9LxBlOd0m0hv6GB1LuR7rFMjWGQYwGbeLPuB6AzoviBos9Tp5LiWBQG_QRf6zj3N1-bVmOzrmI_DIM0gxVQzsZliDZGiPCbCpETCrpZXwU2Guw7TwzlAYgM9JqTEE3gXrH1pVHAtWWFbOkBYVlLmzuZHLH8GGZuhg_u0mMMGg/s1600/spx_oct4.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq was a little more interesting. It gapped higher, and had the bearish 'black' candlestick, but in doing so it did enough to negate the 'bear trap' - shifting the line of resistance a little higher. It registered an accumulation daym and if there is white candlestick on Monday it will mark a new breakout. Technicals are net bullish, and this is the index most likely to reward bulls as of Friday's close.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyd-i1W4MHeddOLatUpTFiYRwvepv1dYhiw8WFo_HbvEGBtDSfwO-MMuPOuNiCRvb4GX6NGBeJ2BsgTfk6dT_r2N_p0t7QXU24m_VnX3PmcSQ3jKH97SH-raQjrRMSzdpVHWjNZgayLjWY3tup83EBQOD58vtIdaGbLf_4Zfd5hOQPkts85CqQ/s1600/compq_oct4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyd-i1W4MHeddOLatUpTFiYRwvepv1dYhiw8WFo_HbvEGBtDSfwO-MMuPOuNiCRvb4GX6NGBeJ2BsgTfk6dT_r2N_p0t7QXU24m_VnX3PmcSQ3jKH97SH-raQjrRMSzdpVHWjNZgayLjWY3tup83EBQOD58vtIdaGbLf_4Zfd5hOQPkts85CqQ/s1600/compq_oct4.png"/></a></div> <p>Feeding into this strength is the Semiconductor Index ($SOX). It registered a breakout on Thursday, and added a little on the doji gap Friday, but this is likely good news for the Nasdaq and breakout watchers there.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFUs8l7UrocsYFzmd9NKoAsqaFqjyu1MrQ845wKMHXxuNvI9gjc335wi8gRkDBtV9wBRAJsGOohYIn-D0yc0JDlhZd_Y3guVSGjuEf9amnFZ1wwXQFlAQVXMNq38W5805HMJcZs7rWNTBX3OKS8W4xS1GuMyEhvxHcd44cXqUXlaUWMv7Hfbsb/s1600/sox_oct4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFUs8l7UrocsYFzmd9NKoAsqaFqjyu1MrQ845wKMHXxuNvI9gjc335wi8gRkDBtV9wBRAJsGOohYIn-D0yc0JDlhZd_Y3guVSGjuEf9amnFZ1wwXQFlAQVXMNq38W5805HMJcZs7rWNTBX3OKS8W4xS1GuMyEhvxHcd44cXqUXlaUWMv7Hfbsb/s1600/sox_oct4.png"/></a></div> <p>Better news is for Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). Friday's small white candlestick marks an uptick in bullish demand after a period of consolidation following the break of $82.5K. I'm liking this for further gains and the two bearish indicators will be quickly reversed on a couple of bullish days.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAdsgaqb8Br2Li0Y46t0Rf3WdWR14OfC63tHh8Z6oMZzGv6Vm1r4D_NgWCK345xiIuWPq5K2rMYqWqSXbSMZUvk2yNPIIIyBVop-2WnQDjX0qlPMMyzC0NKs8HDk3iDAONhVToxiMyIHwPF7YSdbR2ek68GHoEevNVKIPnnJha30gY-1304t5z/s1600/btcusd_oct3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAdsgaqb8Br2Li0Y46t0Rf3WdWR14OfC63tHh8Z6oMZzGv6Vm1r4D_NgWCK345xiIuWPq5K2rMYqWqSXbSMZUvk2yNPIIIyBVop-2WnQDjX0qlPMMyzC0NKs8HDk3iDAONhVToxiMyIHwPF7YSdbR2ek68GHoEevNVKIPnnJha30gY-1304t5z/s1600/btcusd_oct3.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrial closed with a doji but like the Nasdaq, managed to register an accumuation day. It didn't post a high-risk gap higher, so the risk:reward for longs is perhaps a little better than for the S&P or Russell 2000.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKs4_GCghq3wlLFasU-ib28PFi4hW-CJU4tm728mh4V7o0wL__74pC2OEw6fFDPZYQFtFhHxoLirN_H8ktx9Q44XbGQErruNZZJ3PKS0AG1ncoHIlUKJsf4WjNDZxDoMJjxHBUo7u999RSUzY9FJ_QX7hkrnnBqJ-yGLfatEtMUw272PlkxgGx/s1600/indu_oct3.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKs4_GCghq3wlLFasU-ib28PFi4hW-CJU4tm728mh4V7o0wL__74pC2OEw6fFDPZYQFtFhHxoLirN_H8ktx9Q44XbGQErruNZZJ3PKS0AG1ncoHIlUKJsf4WjNDZxDoMJjxHBUo7u999RSUzY9FJ_QX7hkrnnBqJ-yGLfatEtMUw272PlkxgGx/s1600/indu_oct3.png"/></a></div> <p>There are buying opportunities across indices but some might offer better risk:reward if tomorrow opens up weaker, although Futures suggest there could be another gap higher. Bears don't have a whole lot to work with as range bound indices never offer anything reliable (in either direction), but as the broader trend is bullish, the expectation is for higher prices.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-4377681195906713212026-10-01T22:06:04.833+01:002026-10-01T22:06:04.833+01:00<p>The last couple of days for Bitcoin had pointed to indecision on a series of doji, but today's white candlestick above 82.5K breakout support suggests we may yet get another kick on higher. In a manner, it's a victim of its own success as market indices have headed in the other direction. On a positive note, 82.5K should be strong support. If there was a concern, it's that On-Balance-Volume is running below its 20-day MA which may suggest undercover distribution is at work; if 82.K support is lost then further loses are likely.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy-JLQ5bIw0MOuBQdTalhVVMDpCZcezOwKS3r5XJv4Rd2MMOLP8O8g8PFMKjce4vnh8OKXS9tTXXgCo6xZ5cgcyLXRZmduU50J3mApzg1v74VdpPa9bhvZB0QSjBajkjQjQrM90xSXe1UFsOXrM3tv5Er0foQMaYKrZec-9AIR37Jnn6Pbom2w/s1600/btcusd_oct10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy-JLQ5bIw0MOuBQdTalhVVMDpCZcezOwKS3r5XJv4Rd2MMOLP8O8g8PFMKjce4vnh8OKXS9tTXXgCo6xZ5cgcyLXRZmduU50J3mApzg1v74VdpPa9bhvZB0QSjBajkjQjQrM90xSXe1UFsOXrM3tv5Er0foQMaYKrZec-9AIR37Jnn6Pbom2w/s1600/btcusd_oct10.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>There are opportunities. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has done enough to register a tag of its 200-day MA. It posted a neutral candlestick (spinning top), but it did finish with a higher close on accumulation volume. I would like to see another spike low - effectively anything that makes a quick trip below $277.30 and then recovers by the close - this would firm up a trade worthy swing low, particularly as we have had no rallies of note since the bull trap above $300. Options traders may get some reward here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPpp8MMunWmzhPIfwA3wSvzKWE4Fx__rUelIYv-fIGXbpMn0nb-9v8sR_5cSc4It9wshICx_3J5liCQyV41eHPnIiI_RHPQVqsZrpnfF-Qymeg4vSd_zFuQvJqVrDXQ-XhGukXDRTbFPNnt9ZpR0gTALfrWOj-aaGRa9JFQEBE3tAsYRIC1o3X/s1600/iwm_oct10.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPpp8MMunWmzhPIfwA3wSvzKWE4Fx__rUelIYv-fIGXbpMn0nb-9v8sR_5cSc4It9wshICx_3J5liCQyV41eHPnIiI_RHPQVqsZrpnfF-Qymeg4vSd_zFuQvJqVrDXQ-XhGukXDRTbFPNnt9ZpR0gTALfrWOj-aaGRa9JFQEBE3tAsYRIC1o3X/s1600/iwm_oct10.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P didn't quite make it to its 200-day MA but finished with a slightly more bullish candlestick than the Russell 2000. The index is deeply oversold on net bearish technicals, but it kind of needs another bullish candlestick to firm up a swing low.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiO54gkIb3jMIpzexrPxZcAgRE23Cz6Dabd6mgwn7WiJd7xqWWX6AeUdZpXw6PDvDpjtixqqJ9WM8GdR7jpJoZ3umsW5UI2PwoFAd4tV8Q3qkxAOrGwhxlwQE8UR_BW7hyoDbRcgjHB0TMoVUB1gc5fcZXGNtK2GIKmPWvvcQHegA9tz7F_1-gq/s1600/spxew_oct1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiO54gkIb3jMIpzexrPxZcAgRE23Cz6Dabd6mgwn7WiJd7xqWWX6AeUdZpXw6PDvDpjtixqqJ9WM8GdR7jpJoZ3umsW5UI2PwoFAd4tV8Q3qkxAOrGwhxlwQE8UR_BW7hyoDbRcgjHB0TMoVUB1gc5fcZXGNtK2GIKmPWvvcQHegA9tz7F_1-gq/s1600/spxew_oct1.png"/></a></div> <p>The S&P had an interesting day. It undercut 7,650 in what looked to be a long-stop washout and finished with a (bullish) dragonfly doji, returing above 50-day MA support. Stochastics are still holding the mid-line, although it may dip below the line early next week. What I like most about this is that despite the headlines the index continues to trade above 7,600. Price action is king.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSoOr7O9NYIdSnFphQblFC3Ypw-E8cQSzxjttvPrNhFQpACFfp8TmjLJcfD4pUxdBUM8pG3UXgq0KjLTmu9kpoKl31F1Nz165wRziAlgyiqQGgFdrL-l0Xd7wHSxtigZlJQKSLY2Ui20uI3w1qSbCn9zpTZ-Ll5VRqCy9g6IORnQ-VkZCGV5YK/s1600/spx_oct1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSoOr7O9NYIdSnFphQblFC3Ypw-E8cQSzxjttvPrNhFQpACFfp8TmjLJcfD4pUxdBUM8pG3UXgq0KjLTmu9kpoKl31F1Nz165wRziAlgyiqQGgFdrL-l0Xd7wHSxtigZlJQKSLY2Ui20uI3w1qSbCn9zpTZ-Ll5VRqCy9g6IORnQ-VkZCGV5YK/s1600/spx_oct1.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is another conundrum. Yesterday, it was a clear shorting opportunity on the 'gravestone' doji that tagged the 'bull trap'. It may still be a shorting opportunity as I don't like 'black' candlesticks, but traders are defending 26,750 - and until they stop doing so, this is a long play. If you are short, I would wait to see if 27,200 was about to be breached before covering. Unlike peer indices, technicals are net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_XItUN8gyLFLBMvhxKfp9Pp5YN1NK9b8xkbxmxJsB917REsepEz3E0kNm-sbykpLT1KneWc9kYr7coGAFngMZhRzXNu1FXN3xBCpUoZBwl0L8CcD6UhS4oExM_cxK-xRTZ0wK7B3ckVKMysA3Y4hgMKCgkanJUjQfKZycqYv31LqE7eF7d1mA/s1600/compq_oct11b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_XItUN8gyLFLBMvhxKfp9Pp5YN1NK9b8xkbxmxJsB917REsepEz3E0kNm-sbykpLT1KneWc9kYr7coGAFngMZhRzXNu1FXN3xBCpUoZBwl0L8CcD6UhS4oExM_cxK-xRTZ0wK7B3ckVKMysA3Y4hgMKCgkanJUjQfKZycqYv31LqE7eF7d1mA/s1600/compq_oct11b.png"/></a></div> <p>I haven't covered this in a while, but the Dow Industrial Average has been posting steady loses on net bearish technicals. The 200-day MA has converged at horizontal support, also at psychological 50K support. Today's doji came close to tagging the 200-day MA, but there is long opportunity here for a move to 52K, and maybe more.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifzZUi4JXG6_G_Mlw9vgEMNRdQyLdHuUlSC2g-rGq84vRQq2Prmn3Oh1UxifIYV6iuzrq0eXOFuviXMesqMkohhHMDx4jIWa-_fVcGOpo-uj4n5SZsnsf_acy9Yf-K0NJqTMf_ogKEJlNCphfX8gn42NpuJrxsiMJ5cEvmDpgM9_lzLftjw5oz/s1600/indu_oct1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifzZUi4JXG6_G_Mlw9vgEMNRdQyLdHuUlSC2g-rGq84vRQq2Prmn3Oh1UxifIYV6iuzrq0eXOFuviXMesqMkohhHMDx4jIWa-_fVcGOpo-uj4n5SZsnsf_acy9Yf-K0NJqTMf_ogKEJlNCphfX8gn42NpuJrxsiMJ5cEvmDpgM9_lzLftjw5oz/s1600/indu_oct1.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors edged a breakout as part of its base development. It was a relatively subtle move but with technicals net bullish it has the potential to kick on higher. The risk is a 'bull trap' over the next couple of days, which is an aggressive short. The risk is real, because a 'bull trap' would turn this ugly quick, making a test of the 200-day MA a downside target.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5qLn0VolyQPv09Z8EMhBmPpNh761YvKcbvm-1aY7XhGwOPcthJ3tpM9247-g1o0Pjk0alH8tOL2iAqz9J2B2mdh0K69fqZKeeqFl6MTwFnaDszpU6sfRO3bw_1Bv8-g5Bqu0vPOj31YsB3KGBHBmsaz7900BqioGMi9FCYtV1UzUZjhvrb3dB/s1600/sox_oct1c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5qLn0VolyQPv09Z8EMhBmPpNh761YvKcbvm-1aY7XhGwOPcthJ3tpM9247-g1o0Pjk0alH8tOL2iAqz9J2B2mdh0K69fqZKeeqFl6MTwFnaDszpU6sfRO3bw_1Bv8-g5Bqu0vPOj31YsB3KGBHBmsaz7900BqioGMi9FCYtV1UzUZjhvrb3dB/s1600/sox_oct1c.png"/></a></div> <p>It's good to see trading opportunities on both sides of the fence. Investors don't have an immediate concerns, but if you need to take profits, now is not a bad time.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-52239993129489306062026-09-29T23:25:51.742+01:002026-09-29T23:25:51.743+01:00<p>We have a bit of a mixed bag. Markets which were oversold and developing swing lows are now struggling to mount a bounce. Those in trading ranges are still in the upper bounds of those ranges, and could still breakout, but are likely to be influenced by their much weaker brethren. Bitcoin is holding its breakout, but today's doji after yesterday's move lower doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence.</p> <p>Starting with the Russell 2000 ($IWM), we have an index on a fast track to test the 200-day MA. The early September swing low failed and we don't really have a reversal candlestick here, but we could see an attempt at one, once the index tests its 200-day MA. What we need to be careful of is a crash scenario that can emerge in a scenario like this (deeply oversold and net bearish).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWoPE0TE1ppOaLyCI9rxVirYK013g6bpp8v4fOgRHdhRV-1X3MeJ364eQ7GucsYjkTpcKvN8gT2tUubpsQgaf3GmQ_VN5gv3fXW3nhLribgxbPERwLY0BHFCG7uzHpKzNyCeDxCtyzoI2oQP_Jw0s9tWFyA-cLa2zzV61Eckl9gcUsW1PcU246/s1600/iwm_sep29c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWoPE0TE1ppOaLyCI9rxVirYK013g6bpp8v4fOgRHdhRV-1X3MeJ364eQ7GucsYjkTpcKvN8gT2tUubpsQgaf3GmQ_VN5gv3fXW3nhLribgxbPERwLY0BHFCG7uzHpKzNyCeDxCtyzoI2oQP_Jw0s9tWFyA-cLa2zzV61Eckl9gcUsW1PcU246/s1600/iwm_sep29c.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The other index in this predictament is the equal-weighted S&P ($PSXEW). It closed today with a small hammer, but the 200-day MA is looking a more likely test. An aggressive long is to buy a break of 8,500 and keep a tight stop.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKiz6zOY2oezD3ESLLmJDavcErZHZzPlcxucsBHjCsCKlLm4CPGV7iubJ7X5b7Tf79AbtnKFIp-nWj-gg0p2ccjoYXPriDHKavy-ilB9Kno2_F-_0PVSf1-t3YJ8vDvyQcZ7Vm3F7i_yp-P6H4HacNmW5yQJEXYXZ2oc_7sIMy4QW_gw_0J2yQ/s1600/spxew_sep29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKiz6zOY2oezD3ESLLmJDavcErZHZzPlcxucsBHjCsCKlLm4CPGV7iubJ7X5b7Tf79AbtnKFIp-nWj-gg0p2ccjoYXPriDHKavy-ilB9Kno2_F-_0PVSf1-t3YJ8vDvyQcZ7Vm3F7i_yp-P6H4HacNmW5yQJEXYXZ2oc_7sIMy4QW_gw_0J2yQ/s1600/spxew_sep29.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Meanwhile, the weighted S&P is holding its 20-day MA and has yet to challenge 7,800 - something I would expect off the September 'bear trap'. Technicals are mixed, but what's interesting is that stochastics for the weighted S&P have yet to challenge the bullish mid-line, while the unweighted S&P stochastics are deeply oversold. There is reason for optimism as long as 7,600 holds as support.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBItTRc4f7OovROPllT0RbxS3kNeh-w1xxVTEECSFVHl0G49Uv5I594uxgAwJB-HEuJpRiN1ZTCvAtGUsRvsA3WjltIvDD3ArXCaqJBp2-9kaYGG-RWQnlj6Oyw1-6MfB2q5wNV_OQ7RK0JCpsGhYtre9d6a1j2rB4FHWVyVLOAb2xuyEvJ3A-/s1600/spx_sep29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBItTRc4f7OovROPllT0RbxS3kNeh-w1xxVTEECSFVHl0G49Uv5I594uxgAwJB-HEuJpRiN1ZTCvAtGUsRvsA3WjltIvDD3ArXCaqJBp2-9kaYGG-RWQnlj6Oyw1-6MfB2q5wNV_OQ7RK0JCpsGhYtre9d6a1j2rB4FHWVyVLOAb2xuyEvJ3A-/s1600/spx_sep29.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is threatening to gap lower, with the 20-day MA its initial target. Technicals are net bullish, so a gap lower may offer an aggressive buy on the moving average test as price is unlikely to collapse from here...</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5GXoIa7tOtSZibshDGjOI_x57Lu1BpYaENWV6vhaMFlzTh_7XQMTF1OzuxCBpI3F0AtWXplPOpw1SoQcvhdj-I28ubZCOr9_ia3sOCJv4cs93Upq6Y_ZY1nQcPo7L4XWMVpwtEcHWaJpUPzFFXLDsx5enSZv1xviyLvw_59Q7z9sk4-7VW-Os/s1600/compq_sep29b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5GXoIa7tOtSZibshDGjOI_x57Lu1BpYaENWV6vhaMFlzTh_7XQMTF1OzuxCBpI3F0AtWXplPOpw1SoQcvhdj-I28ubZCOr9_ia3sOCJv4cs93Upq6Y_ZY1nQcPo7L4XWMVpwtEcHWaJpUPzFFXLDsx5enSZv1xviyLvw_59Q7z9sk4-7VW-Os/s1600/compq_sep29b.png"/></a></div> <p>Although... we need to keep an eye on the weekly chart. Here we have a bearish wedge, and plenty of room down to the 200-week MA. This might set the tone for the latter part of the year, but it's not something we have to worry about for this week.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaeYprzMYIWLk6QdBbo40MLUuuWOzuZzwlBioqmh_85LoUL3szBszXvYUbIOMYgdHH7sLg6NWNYOglte1BR0gxDlGtpg4gFikOXOMCgtcup5F6GJ0TEsCRwoABe5GC3XP_JTLwXs2o4JoxNSICUrQFRbX18nJ6KZQkyL05VGslB7OiboFkoXLi/s1600/compq_sep29c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaeYprzMYIWLk6QdBbo40MLUuuWOzuZzwlBioqmh_85LoUL3szBszXvYUbIOMYgdHH7sLg6NWNYOglte1BR0gxDlGtpg4gFikOXOMCgtcup5F6GJ0TEsCRwoABe5GC3XP_JTLwXs2o4JoxNSICUrQFRbX18nJ6KZQkyL05VGslB7OiboFkoXLi/s1600/compq_sep29c.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) blinked and moved lower Monday, and the attempt to recover this lost ground stalled out today. I'm not sure there is sufficient demand at $82.5K to survive a third test, and then there is the 20-day MA to consider. If we get a close below $82.5K we will have a new 'bull trap', and a test of 77K is in order.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4dAcfwLaOt8v2s3LOuJTtHBVss9SFOTjTPs6sxJ_IBS9a2Nl43faL-APA20ZBy0yjzbslBuHYJBhcmKUVZC10XThfyMXSDnQs2RtJI0vvErZTXbf1QJnl5GgjusJJFtC8Xft_P_q_Xelh32SLgb5pKsdhLugUfnS8HL1x3nRSirO1sjPhTQK5/s1600/btcusd_sep29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4dAcfwLaOt8v2s3LOuJTtHBVss9SFOTjTPs6sxJ_IBS9a2Nl43faL-APA20ZBy0yjzbslBuHYJBhcmKUVZC10XThfyMXSDnQs2RtJI0vvErZTXbf1QJnl5GgjusJJFtC8Xft_P_q_Xelh32SLgb5pKsdhLugUfnS8HL1x3nRSirO1sjPhTQK5/s1600/btcusd_sep29.png"/></a></div> <p>We need to go into the next couple of days a little more cautious if you are a long. Taking profits wouldn't hurt, just in case things take a turn. Bitcoin remains long term bullish, but the continued shaping of its right-hand-base may take a little longer than expected.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img s rc="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-47172539067900793192026-09-27T23:35:27.221+01:002026-09-27T23:35:27.221+01:00<p>Tomorrow we are going to see how strong the 'bull trap' is in the Nasdaq as Friday's finish tagged resistance. Volume was down, although technicals are net bullish. More likely, we will see some 'pennant' like formation over the coming week, before get another another solid white candlestick.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWQMhJlINdvQkbOtdLvROtzBwUp1iXT-IfQ2Al9TcT35CdGOWhqOOQtP3pkRPXd6gieG7NglgmxjnrrLhcvK22gax3FN53rQYwd0JHqqoCIGHDaEO1TWBznMas4oEHX86akpdlW2_8j77VbnS28yA39vpuJpVSxFsZBm2JHYwCUXdU12YeIKjR/s1600/compq_sep27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWQMhJlINdvQkbOtdLvROtzBwUp1iXT-IfQ2Al9TcT35CdGOWhqOOQtP3pkRPXd6gieG7NglgmxjnrrLhcvK22gax3FN53rQYwd0JHqqoCIGHDaEO1TWBznMas4oEHX86akpdlW2_8j77VbnS28yA39vpuJpVSxFsZBm2JHYwCUXdU12YeIKjR/s1600/compq_sep27.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P continued its rally off the 20-day MA as it trades towards the upper part of the August-September range. The index has its own 'bull trap' to challenge at 7,800.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdjsOqt6-hx4fECmX9jMzZTa1WijW-0zLyCD5TTOQSMNxc-U3JmlUUQNFQPa-EJBJLyX2uygIENFLrB6GueEpdI-hIljAPYr4PJ30qCLT5KzSWsNbfzWgYIBO9cnBEEtRXIa3PAu3ppXvW7OOvgqZWdzuTEixt1m7rd8XO-ytdSogTLi5QMP2G/s1600/spx_sep27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdjsOqt6-hx4fECmX9jMzZTa1WijW-0zLyCD5TTOQSMNxc-U3JmlUUQNFQPa-EJBJLyX2uygIENFLrB6GueEpdI-hIljAPYr4PJ30qCLT5KzSWsNbfzWgYIBO9cnBEEtRXIa3PAu3ppXvW7OOvgqZWdzuTEixt1m7rd8XO-ytdSogTLi5QMP2G/s1600/spx_sep27.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal weighted S&P made back Thursday losses but hasn't fully reversed the breakdown. Technicals are heavily oversold, but there is a bullish divergence in the MACD historgram and I do like the potential for a 'catapult' move higher - starting Monday; an undercut of 8,500 negates this opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyIre9AnqujjPVu3WU_BRsyUOqaVoels8Ru1KCy4jrsydAYdEBlOigZVmuN4l2Wd_lAI11eUMigtM_PW7C4wIdad3l-hpztKjtik_9_z-4Gh_nc8faN-_kdEmZF2nNGegGpS_i-CcyeXDEA7oWiRJcWVgLJCXWRDSdBEZR9hIr7pte03RtZ8Jq/s1600/spxew_Sep27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyIre9AnqujjPVu3WU_BRsyUOqaVoels8Ru1KCy4jrsydAYdEBlOigZVmuN4l2Wd_lAI11eUMigtM_PW7C4wIdad3l-hpztKjtik_9_z-4Gh_nc8faN-_kdEmZF2nNGegGpS_i-CcyeXDEA7oWiRJcWVgLJCXWRDSdBEZR9hIr7pte03RtZ8Jq/s1600/spxew_Sep27.png"/></a></div> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) disappointed a little in its failure to follow the lead of peer indices as it closed with an indecisive doji. I still like it for a swing low, it just may make another sweep (and undercut) of $279 before it does. View any late day rally positively, as this likely mean another spike low to build on the demand articulated in previous days trading sub-$282.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8RspJxdC6DyK5mBksDJ5oI-vNXNGTLnWroOwR84eHtPEx1gMy2AolPvebcuWPMSLX6D-428SiFhrJGxtUmslQJIgn7bnibuNwWtgL7-LMXEZBZW7Pc8oEEopLifaOspLxDARsdRWxx-0ZWsLxQPuq-A2TPurqlxMkjpNHxRrto9eZUWf00aBe/s1600/iwm_sep27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8RspJxdC6DyK5mBksDJ5oI-vNXNGTLnWroOwR84eHtPEx1gMy2AolPvebcuWPMSLX6D-428SiFhrJGxtUmslQJIgn7bnibuNwWtgL7-LMXEZBZW7Pc8oEEopLifaOspLxDARsdRWxx-0ZWsLxQPuq-A2TPurqlxMkjpNHxRrto9eZUWf00aBe/s1600/iwm_sep27.png"/></a></div> <p>An asset I have been bullish account, but might actually head lower Monday is Bitcoin. There was the successful test of $82.5K support, but the bounce has so far been insipid. It may surge early next week, but we need to have a little bit of caution here. Remember, a close below $82.5K will mean a 'bull trap' and a favored move back to $60K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEvEX_zGqNzw-5HhsEELM087LZdMyVLDqX0dIdOH5rsWvNHLx7QcrPSrNV_-GxjTAbR8rdue3S1dq9187nxAfXtqcP5oX604QF3wrGSGfDPE3A6DmNtF_7fIFaWyc_YdWUkP_nKA0_7t9SGvqTuDmn5FjapA7cQEY8sKLbwDxQIdMLOuT50nkr/s1600/btcuse_sep27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEvEX_zGqNzw-5HhsEELM087LZdMyVLDqX0dIdOH5rsWvNHLx7QcrPSrNV_-GxjTAbR8rdue3S1dq9187nxAfXtqcP5oX604QF3wrGSGfDPE3A6DmNtF_7fIFaWyc_YdWUkP_nKA0_7t9SGvqTuDmn5FjapA7cQEY8sKLbwDxQIdMLOuT50nkr/s1600/btcuse_sep27.png"/></a></div> <p>The other watch is the Semiconductor Index ($SOX). It has been basing within the bounds of 10K and 14.5K. It's currently challenging a mid-level resistance around 12.5K and it's looking good to push through into the gap zone to 14.5K. Technicals are net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYFkqDD7EvnWwxEzucO1ueErtHTigmCU6NVzz6GVLbxIViCyiKf6ZiAjPeHFeiNz4xZBWx31EcFCuKdXkEspitE6OxP1btbqTq_2vvCg7dxjJ3Snaij6h69iHOZ2P5r1oAo4w9SL1irk4EQzEeUmePoO92kFGAaYd0lGhmvfTHxRYpKVd5u0eV/s1600/sox_sep27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYFkqDD7EvnWwxEzucO1ueErtHTigmCU6NVzz6GVLbxIViCyiKf6ZiAjPeHFeiNz4xZBWx31EcFCuKdXkEspitE6OxP1btbqTq_2vvCg7dxjJ3Snaij6h69iHOZ2P5r1oAo4w9SL1irk4EQzEeUmePoO92kFGAaYd0lGhmvfTHxRYpKVd5u0eV/s1600/sox_sep27.png"/></a></div> <p>For this week, we have opportunities on both sides of the ledger. Shorts can look to Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) and the Nasdaq ($COMPQ). Swing traders can look to the equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) - although I would edge bullish. Bulls have Semiconductors. While long-term Investors have the Russell 2000 ($IWM) to buy into. Take your pick.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-41173505807960170382026-09-24T22:49:41.239+01:002026-09-24T22:49:41.240+01:00<p>The first attempt to rally off a bottom stalled out at its 20-day MA. We now have invalidated that low, so are looking for the next one. Today's dragonfly doji on higher volumem distribution is another such attempt. We have oversold momentum and bearish net technicals. It's only worth it if the index rallies from the open; a close into the spike low negates the reversal play - we really want to see a gap higher and a solid white candlestick.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfdvtKhyVms5K4gav5TTaoGMF3atuuMUaE0vVdYJIv3GYc4qcZjGxiYUlH5laQv7pV622YJZEE1jby81af5d9HHY_yUpUk0Jw8U889ayzs6KFKPdRoxJpearFCfRMhS8VpYfKP60YsxRhzB2WeTYbdQnmg68idbQOYLgBMZjTRNk-OFY5VDpsb/s1600/iwm_sep24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfdvtKhyVms5K4gav5TTaoGMF3atuuMUaE0vVdYJIv3GYc4qcZjGxiYUlH5laQv7pV622YJZEE1jby81af5d9HHY_yUpUk0Jw8U889ayzs6KFKPdRoxJpearFCfRMhS8VpYfKP60YsxRhzB2WeTYbdQnmg68idbQOYLgBMZjTRNk-OFY5VDpsb/s1600/iwm_sep24.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P didn't fare so well. It marked a clear break of the swing low attempt and is now looking down at the 200-day MA as the likely next test. Technicals area net bearish and the index is sharply underperforming the weighted S&P.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSDj7l4DH2QjEuyIcryM9YEPSKwlK2IGTsvIzsK5E1x3dKgT3FcSavaAOKGgDGy1LKlCvD3tmKgG_EYs1_xCUahX4x2ZlRx8CxGu9t7fBxEgmEvQKjmVU6L0eQTx1eWbe36toPQMW1ZlYggeoKickN83UR_OqJUEUqTyfA3uY1bkHiKHJsXV8f/s1600/spxew_sep24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSDj7l4DH2QjEuyIcryM9YEPSKwlK2IGTsvIzsK5E1x3dKgT3FcSavaAOKGgDGy1LKlCvD3tmKgG_EYs1_xCUahX4x2ZlRx8CxGu9t7fBxEgmEvQKjmVU6L0eQTx1eWbe36toPQMW1ZlYggeoKickN83UR_OqJUEUqTyfA3uY1bkHiKHJsXV8f/s1600/spxew_sep24.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P might be the better long play here. It opened near 7,650 support and its 20-day MA. It's an aggressive trade but one with potential with a stop on an undercut of today's low. Note how stochastics bounced off the mid-line, this is bullish action. <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdxnX2xL4Opv7EXx2b4fLy66KgQkLposuY0h8BvwFKPmwm2pliy5bzs76ZEdrVd1i0loXvT-Oeo_mSeT_IC1_fD7_XJcnLVkcGowOiZjpcOHE9QTCXBOTEmdGNb7tUXvdbZySuVBkB2UFr1aVqb86aGdj-kEydcW67WjFNB-LnMr3mwOR5jco5/s1600/spx_sep24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdxnX2xL4Opv7EXx2b4fLy66KgQkLposuY0h8BvwFKPmwm2pliy5bzs76ZEdrVd1i0loXvT-Oeo_mSeT_IC1_fD7_XJcnLVkcGowOiZjpcOHE9QTCXBOTEmdGNb7tUXvdbZySuVBkB2UFr1aVqb86aGdj-kEydcW67WjFNB-LnMr3mwOR5jco5/s1600/spx_sep24.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq may be heading in the other direction. We have a clear 'bull trap' and today's rally has the potential to stall out at 27K. At this point, it may be worth a short, as "bull traps" frequently result in a rapid move back to prior trading range support (down at 25K).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI1hU11qLyRmjUFOrV5-xRqA5S25RY1glfDmChDj11sADw0bHNFofP5L1LPxiveOnza39YDku6utwFHqRDo59btGtMP5YoUdxzB7RewXaF0_IaL0sa0udpxiAnL6vDs0KUfymqQchasWEFtnyVpfViadUVWQ7lmS20GCX7uJrGVMDyC7ZOfKaq/s1600/nas_sep24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI1hU11qLyRmjUFOrV5-xRqA5S25RY1glfDmChDj11sADw0bHNFofP5L1LPxiveOnza39YDku6utwFHqRDo59btGtMP5YoUdxzB7RewXaF0_IaL0sa0udpxiAnL6vDs0KUfymqQchasWEFtnyVpfViadUVWQ7lmS20GCX7uJrGVMDyC7ZOfKaq/s1600/nas_sep24.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is offering a pullback opportunity to 82.5K. Today's small doji just above support marks its own buying opportunity; an underdcut of 82.5K negates such an opportunity, but would remain a hold for long term bulls.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvxh6LIeSW97_SaQKNs28BqHkE2x-HhIbjId1W-uuj0anp2qxUR3S4l0RYeXQsmFyKQ3bW6tYtv_I5QEuY8yl-SZg-UR70lyv1gch1qF03WyJgn1pMlomdZeJzNRiZnxFFz7n2Iz5RUYsHTKOhzPJVTTTmjiY9M_eSyxb8XKc1dqDTca7ne-r9/s1600/btcusd_sep24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvxh6LIeSW97_SaQKNs28BqHkE2x-HhIbjId1W-uuj0anp2qxUR3S4l0RYeXQsmFyKQ3bW6tYtv_I5QEuY8yl-SZg-UR70lyv1gch1qF03WyJgn1pMlomdZeJzNRiZnxFFz7n2Iz5RUYsHTKOhzPJVTTTmjiY9M_eSyxb8XKc1dqDTca7ne-r9/s1600/btcusd_sep24.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, we have a mix of long and shorting opportunities, but these are near term plays that could be quickly negated. The broader trend remains bullish, with the possible exception of the equal-weighted S&P.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-57309853835129197572026-09-22T23:03:20.468+01:002026-09-22T23:03:20.468+01:00<p>So much for the questionable breakout in the Nasdaq or the potential short play in the S&P, both were swotted away with substantial gains in each index. There remains doubt across both indices, but if each are able to retain the bulk of their gains over the coming days then the bearish thesis will be much weakened.</p> <p>The Nasdaq was the biggest mover over the past couple of days was the Nasdaq. The doji breakout was a non-issue and those who bought the 26K tests will be sitting pretty. Today's gain was enough to register a new high breakout, but it's vulnerable to a 'bull trap', particularly if sellers are able to drive the index back below 27K. However, we did see a new MACD, On-Balance-Volume, and +DI/-DI 'buy' signals, returning technicals to a net bullish state.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlndLy8bcBNnCQfMCDPIYzsmoAh4mhaqkgyXM9zWGMcefyH8bvSSyWLTIa7U-5h1CJqRilepRtkJWX8pQ1jZF9nC1Jv18dsNMWS7R27WGsUkV4MljeNvocykAobJ3H42kkubmbTMxSSLckf6DLeZR7PHDQy1mauioHHdInMcY2rTdQQeRpKmzk/s1600/compq_sep22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlndLy8bcBNnCQfMCDPIYzsmoAh4mhaqkgyXM9zWGMcefyH8bvSSyWLTIa7U-5h1CJqRilepRtkJWX8pQ1jZF9nC1Jv18dsNMWS7R27WGsUkV4MljeNvocykAobJ3H42kkubmbTMxSSLckf6DLeZR7PHDQy1mauioHHdInMcY2rTdQQeRpKmzk/s1600/compq_sep22.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P had looked like it was going to stall out at its 20-day MA, but instead it delivered a big surge - liekely driven by short covering - but it hasn't yet broken out of its trading range. Today's loss was small, but remains below resistance. However, today's gain negated the bearish technicals for the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsVCN_f7NwrKNuQAlIcd_v6AGja6Ka2zIVqTTbCq2lgDHXlWnv7LQmbCMBKhLz55gyCTH1QfIDwFRxBkYWvg1rheQwsMzNMX5qX343APLN2b39uLXM1HDy8DBFahwQJG7pedSPbl_hUvBi-OusBy6nGkYRVcLouphi-5LRJTTwdmG_0vod7Ygs/s1600/spx_sep22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsVCN_f7NwrKNuQAlIcd_v6AGja6Ka2zIVqTTbCq2lgDHXlWnv7LQmbCMBKhLz55gyCTH1QfIDwFRxBkYWvg1rheQwsMzNMX5qX343APLN2b39uLXM1HDy8DBFahwQJG7pedSPbl_hUvBi-OusBy6nGkYRVcLouphi-5LRJTTwdmG_0vod7Ygs/s1600/spx_sep22.png"/></a></div> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) made modest gains over the past couple of days, but not to the extent that the Nasdaq and S&P delivered. Today's buying registered as accumulation, but ended in a neutral doji. However, this still looks like a trade worthy swing low, although it could still morph into a sideways pattern.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvaph-RXtMp7iRdbwJ1EsAhjWnnGtM7NNR6zSNG9Ge8RgqezOfnEdEaeAQDobV6bjEZvXYlyF6_OwNjQCDMLKqJPt7GTzDECY8gY0WvYYnv6Hw6FXjeL5baNum_VCuTCdKZED_KKW-OGCKGZkoZgfJoZT5PR6wTYDXqR7RD419a-SF3zAIYUSi/s1600/iwm_sep22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvaph-RXtMp7iRdbwJ1EsAhjWnnGtM7NNR6zSNG9Ge8RgqezOfnEdEaeAQDobV6bjEZvXYlyF6_OwNjQCDMLKqJPt7GTzDECY8gY0WvYYnv6Hw6FXjeL5baNum_VCuTCdKZED_KKW-OGCKGZkoZgfJoZT5PR6wTYDXqR7RD419a-SF3zAIYUSi/s1600/iwm_sep22.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P closed with a neutral doji as part of its swing low. It didn't enjoy the gains of the S&P over the past couple of days, but ironically, it may be more bullish given it's working off an oversold state.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh37F3jXRM9cHF_wY5ALuYRwtAJke3snjHjLv8s-B6zwRFy03pCrO9QuJFSpsHx-jac08xuphcAszT78i0dnsdO9I-63ayvJ9RqBjlu6dNKkvEBZyfHWmg3M0UaArNkSmQYPEXt97F_08M7_GwFCYwAqhctHEOB6YnUm7YkNkvLZ3M1twwZLPh8/s1600/spxew_sep22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh37F3jXRM9cHF_wY5ALuYRwtAJke3snjHjLv8s-B6zwRFy03pCrO9QuJFSpsHx-jac08xuphcAszT78i0dnsdO9I-63ayvJ9RqBjlu6dNKkvEBZyfHWmg3M0UaArNkSmQYPEXt97F_08M7_GwFCYwAqhctHEOB6YnUm7YkNkvLZ3M1twwZLPh8/s1600/spxew_sep22.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Bitcoin had delivered a confirmed break of 82.5K yesterday as it looks to build a broader right-hand-base. There is still plenty of work to do, but 82.5K should be strong support going forward. Trading volume has picked up substantially since mid-August, and technicals are firmly in the green. Should indices stall out in their advances, then there will always be Bitcoin to take their money.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9uFLYK-MXSWrbKB5aWA8j_ZVA2hCPGX_mLBdIg1DuQx_rEXn_vUaVqkuK5DczawhqV7S8jIdpbLy3B1ditAlJGCCJw6PsLdXjL5NoqWBXC590Ov0xYpbIZLBCub4SiiLM9pYGBiEtDuCPDM5hQjkvn9TtiopqOr6cl-5eIkyc5YeimsgPtOeU/s1600/btcusd_sep22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9uFLYK-MXSWrbKB5aWA8j_ZVA2hCPGX_mLBdIg1DuQx_rEXn_vUaVqkuK5DczawhqV7S8jIdpbLy3B1ditAlJGCCJw6PsLdXjL5NoqWBXC590Ov0xYpbIZLBCub4SiiLM9pYGBiEtDuCPDM5hQjkvn9TtiopqOr6cl-5eIkyc5YeimsgPtOeU/s1600/btcusd_sep22.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors are also on the move again. There is support at 10K and recent action points towards a new rally back to 14.5K. Bulls need only watch for the potential of a 'bull trap', but otherwise, the broader bull move looks to be back in play.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeyvOa0P19nmrBr61F3-ttmhPJM3sjx5LcrsrQEKf9RBQ7h_GpuTxOQYbVHmC3bXPLsZa5KdoqCajdTbpQJZNRLxj3rY0fVh1ORfc-c0MlfWNeDRX68OgC62ZoQETcUjU-M7F3jSUK5r5d4f9P74dqDmu9B_hwnrueTpSY3C4bKkt_6rxKjzoM/s1600/SOX_sep22.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeyvOa0P19nmrBr61F3-ttmhPJM3sjx5LcrsrQEKf9RBQ7h_GpuTxOQYbVHmC3bXPLsZa5KdoqCajdTbpQJZNRLxj3rY0fVh1ORfc-c0MlfWNeDRX68OgC62ZoQETcUjU-M7F3jSUK5r5d4f9P74dqDmu9B_hwnrueTpSY3C4bKkt_6rxKjzoM/s1600/SOX_sep22.png"/></a></div> <p>It will be interesting to see if Nasdaq and S&P gains can be maintained? There wasn't a broad advance across indices or in the equal-weighted equivalent, but price is king. Broader trends are bullish, and until we see a substantial change in this, my outlook remains bullish.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-4704275772591694032026-09-21T11:30:56.971+01:002026-09-21T11:30:56.972+01:00<p>Bitcoin is again on the move, looking more bullish than my initial "bullish outlook". I had looked for a more pronounced 'bear trap' on a duck to the 50-day MA, but instead buyers stepped in and shorts were forced to cover buy. This is excellent right-hand-base development on the longer weekly chart, and it's hard not to see Bitcoin challenging $125K by 2028, if not sooner. It will still be volatile, but long-term investors waiting for a new entry opportunity should wait for prices to narrow again in low volume, then buy-and-not-look-back. Long term buyers should not get sucked into the daily machinations of cryptocurrencies, and should have a proper long term outlook of years - not months or weeks... Anything shorter will need to use adequate risk:reward. If I was to stick my neck out, I might look for $100K for end-of-year and measure risk based on that target. As an asset, I hate cryptocurrencies (and the sphere around them), but they do appear to be influenced more by technicals than other asset classes.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPS7Rsd-LRaVX7VGing62-hDoK-SBHyYOVfVgLIt01mdUn1-v_mtQQfppGZiPTKmFdUfbezh-jFOLM85btBrMiI3DAbQuB0SpgJEwPwV-TcY4rzbncwF8a0de2kH0pUKzQV0uq43rD990YPDJFsh9wTZUgCAM21_-a9km_Tanyfp60m9lY6uqY/s1600/btcusd_sep21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPS7Rsd-LRaVX7VGing62-hDoK-SBHyYOVfVgLIt01mdUn1-v_mtQQfppGZiPTKmFdUfbezh-jFOLM85btBrMiI3DAbQuB0SpgJEwPwV-TcY4rzbncwF8a0de2kH0pUKzQV0uq43rD990YPDJFsh9wTZUgCAM21_-a9km_Tanyfp60m9lY6uqY/s1600/btcusd_sep21.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV1m-_xRmn96URkkqSMtSxd_P33Se8Sm7g-E6B_DDvalheCgsfAqYuewqNnVzyUZr-oIwjxoP0VZKsoIeSD5iuAg4yNWyWutV_NmPWGPbBdEC7ka-cITCdui89qDsABc1G-k4-RPMUi0iZywhIPdyKW3rP-18XL23HdY4F9GhJvWNaBS5vCgWM/s1600/btcu_sep21_w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1080" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV1m-_xRmn96URkkqSMtSxd_P33Se8Sm7g-E6B_DDvalheCgsfAqYuewqNnVzyUZr-oIwjxoP0VZKsoIeSD5iuAg4yNWyWutV_NmPWGPbBdEC7ka-cITCdui89qDsABc1G-k4-RPMUi0iZywhIPdyKW3rP-18XL23HdY4F9GhJvWNaBS5vCgWM/s1600/btcu_sep21_w.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>As for the indices, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) posted another 'bullish hammer' to follow that of Wednesday's - negating the bearishness of Thursday's black candlestick. Stochastics are firmly oversold, and while technicals are net bearish and trading volume has picked up, I think we have reached a point of stability around $285 that should give bulls something to work with for an end-of-year rally back to $300s. If $280 was undercut, then look for a spike low test of the 200-day MA that would offer a strong bottom. If I had a criticism of the current action is that it's in a bit of a no-mans-land from historic support.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzDtlqvN8PibEgWbI2wpDpVU7aF_brUk8yIeUl0GNGgzL_x0wPstrHnIa3te1bmN7LZwENUYWNErCVXkQkT-a_b3gopL5l4Ykx2JQP0z69kCYxaR1e7sRrZY7Qnwdv5kLTtLRPxdik8d1tqpF3q-dg4a9Go2MluIE_IdSHui8CrhyphenhyphenCI2XMcGnJ/s1600/iwm_Sep21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzDtlqvN8PibEgWbI2wpDpVU7aF_brUk8yIeUl0GNGgzL_x0wPstrHnIa3te1bmN7LZwENUYWNErCVXkQkT-a_b3gopL5l4Ykx2JQP0z69kCYxaR1e7sRrZY7Qnwdv5kLTtLRPxdik8d1tqpF3q-dg4a9Go2MluIE_IdSHui8CrhyphenhyphenCI2XMcGnJ/s1600/iwm_Sep21.png"/></a></div> <p>The other index looking to shape a swing low, and its near historic support is the equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW). Buyers are back in around 8,600 from where the July rally was launched. Glass-half-full types might just see this as the makings of a reversal head-and-shoulder pattern; if this was the case, any rally won't make it past 8,725 by the close of business - intraday breaks don't count. If we got an end-of-day close above 8,750, I would be more confident of a move back to challenge the last swing high in the 9000s. We will need to keep an eye on action around 20-day and 50-day MAs too, just in case they add their own layer of resistance.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfPe_8Zc9iU2RMSaz500tCaIUhc_EAwlRjKUTtUJHpuQH3YHA66x2DM1khp5a5lVaKVWNctua6U-xpSiE-4Dl2d5dxKbaoQkUPikzaxEuBJcW3iu-NjfZRViM_zY5NAFGWFVq08hJiyFy0jicoRUstUo9R9qzitfSANLEPUtvdlYo23oHuDqqq/s1600/spxew_sep21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfPe_8Zc9iU2RMSaz500tCaIUhc_EAwlRjKUTtUJHpuQH3YHA66x2DM1khp5a5lVaKVWNctua6U-xpSiE-4Dl2d5dxKbaoQkUPikzaxEuBJcW3iu-NjfZRViM_zY5NAFGWFVq08hJiyFy0jicoRUstUo9R9qzitfSANLEPUtvdlYo23oHuDqqq/s1600/spxew_sep21.png"/></a></div> <p>The S&P is an interesting position. Despite the negative headlines of August, the index has been quietly doing its own bullish thing. Then we had last week's sizable drop (interestingly enough, not on any pick-up in volume), before rallying to leave a 'bear trap'. Friday's action was disappointing. We had a 'black' candlestick doji, at the 20-day MA, that stalls the momentum for the rally from the 'bear trap'. I have marked it as a potential short play, but only because it finished bang on the 20-day MA. I don't see this as a bearish index, it would just be an aggressive trade for a couple of days. If you were holding a long position I wouldn't be a seller, and certainly not if a long-term holder.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSgTTv2p4bPY-9DkWxXRVgOMAgv1TVXj0OyHqkCB9BrIIcV_78oI5OxKcF4eTBB8hJzPiHRYYQceeTzFe1G_P_87exL5QSlNElnXc0YGI_7h3a_9ESheXEqhmR3VI05vle9kjtrY3Vbs0cjvfTrt1dDp5bLXxcK7G8GgvvGyv4G_LCdFXbDEzr/s1600/spx_sep21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSgTTv2p4bPY-9DkWxXRVgOMAgv1TVXj0OyHqkCB9BrIIcV_78oI5OxKcF4eTBB8hJzPiHRYYQceeTzFe1G_P_87exL5QSlNElnXc0YGI_7h3a_9ESheXEqhmR3VI05vle9kjtrY3Vbs0cjvfTrt1dDp5bLXxcK7G8GgvvGyv4G_LCdFXbDEzr/s1600/spx_sep21.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is also closed with a doji, not sure I would see it as a breakout (doji dont make for good breakouts), and the larger trading range remains the dominant pattern. Technicals are mixed, but what I would like to see a new MACD 'buy' signal next, quicky followed by a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume which has been trending down all summer.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3Jz0oS1ysDnQJ_0CQSqtPW1kqsXzUVPOIbO3e9ry91vxuesAPxeJiBLiIXBm-UaaUY5J46p2oQMiu2y6PJSZDgV6ICrCpHCrf617xKaeZdJjMk4520lF2nUWuyrP2OcispbSDOtbCEb1O_1vX6giCgAX8UH6skGGzdK97Oz1l7mtRHn49a52P/s1600/nas_sep21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3Jz0oS1ysDnQJ_0CQSqtPW1kqsXzUVPOIbO3e9ry91vxuesAPxeJiBLiIXBm-UaaUY5J46p2oQMiu2y6PJSZDgV6ICrCpHCrf617xKaeZdJjMk4520lF2nUWuyrP2OcispbSDOtbCEb1O_1vX6giCgAX8UH6skGGzdK97Oz1l7mtRHn49a52P/s1600/nas_sep21.png"/></a></div> <p>The quiet burner is the Semiconductor Index. AI will go through a period of consolidation and this index appears to suggest things are settling. We have a 200-day MA fast approaching and we are seeing good stability above 10K. Those who missed surge and are looking for a long term play, then the next test of the 200-day MA might be the one.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKk05PGYY1JnulKWVUppPkA4L1E_cI9jR7RJzsWCWEgaEK-3ORKQqT0544UIu0EUfUu08RX48Twb81iQiGY4ilhUwgnEt57faVPvqX2O1r8VarS31uhWVJqsQo6X0wYWjLLmuJjfoBgRkwj-k2ThA9f07F75MeRX7V-1-pe0TwOUCCSxmrlfNB/s1600/sox_sep21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKk05PGYY1JnulKWVUppPkA4L1E_cI9jR7RJzsWCWEgaEK-3ORKQqT0544UIu0EUfUu08RX48Twb81iQiGY4ilhUwgnEt57faVPvqX2O1r8VarS31uhWVJqsQo6X0wYWjLLmuJjfoBgRkwj-k2ThA9f07F75MeRX7V-1-pe0TwOUCCSxmrlfNB/s1600/sox_sep21.png"/></a></div> <p>Going forward, we are seeing good stability across indices, with Bitcoin providing bulls with a nice injection of trading action. The next big long-term buying opportunity won't come until we get a couple of years of trading below 200-day MAs, and early 2025 didn't deliver on that (tarriff wars). So, I still think we need this reset in the not-so-distant future, but until then, tests of 200-day MAs are the best long-term buying opportunities. And, as I had been saying about Bitcoin, tests of *200-week MAs* are even better... I have seen a nice uptick in readership this past week, so if you are new to me I can be followed on <a href="https://x.com/fallondpicks">X.com</a> or <a href="https://stocktwits.com/fallondpicks">Stocktwits.com</a> @fallondpicks.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-67024027215133533172026-09-17T22:50:07.135+01:002026-09-17T22:50:07.135+01:00<p>After the Fed driven sell-off that delivered support breaks for some of the indices there was an attempt by bulls to stage a bounce, but traders weren't able to build on the sizable opening gaps, and some indices drifted lower by the close.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) lost the most ground off the open. However, today's close was enough to regain support, leaving yesterday's action as a potential 'bear trap'. Technicals are net bearish oversold. And today's buying volume was below yesterday's selling (distribution).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh49hM5VnKOnNc8PhNiWCW0c7pJblXHyCHMaO-wGU8i9F4aFdgERgz-Y-3K0LirsRLvyIas4vdxAkCp2GQT1tNKRa-xaoxoF7zUmfDzIyWZRc1KQKdWJ6foktmpEiFw46_9U-BM0VlhXmu0y_Q_VnsV-rtVogeeBytitOSXCgU7JYhgqeSGhdd-/s1600/sep9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh49hM5VnKOnNc8PhNiWCW0c7pJblXHyCHMaO-wGU8i9F4aFdgERgz-Y-3K0LirsRLvyIas4vdxAkCp2GQT1tNKRa-xaoxoF7zUmfDzIyWZRc1KQKdWJ6foktmpEiFw46_9U-BM0VlhXmu0y_Q_VnsV-rtVogeeBytitOSXCgU7JYhgqeSGhdd-/s1600/sep9.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P finished the day where it started, which is also 20-day MA resistance. Aggressive traders could go with a swing trade as the next move could be sizable (particularly if the move is higher).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5so-RQAIGTU9hfqW567boByduIZICv6Kbh98HvuAyAicWotI4QhGz6cZKC51Le1HWc_zOIdsaCz6n4pHWNiQdRHL-QeIXW3NyFr1AG40-a8qLkuK1GSkbM8bqzVmGKc1vZIhBQ5QhMWrVkjsRawQR0WwnaqOjb86RxDKFLGRXfq3RxJQatt-o/s1600/spx_sep17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5so-RQAIGTU9hfqW567boByduIZICv6Kbh98HvuAyAicWotI4QhGz6cZKC51Le1HWc_zOIdsaCz6n4pHWNiQdRHL-QeIXW3NyFr1AG40-a8qLkuK1GSkbM8bqzVmGKc1vZIhBQ5QhMWrVkjsRawQR0WwnaqOjb86RxDKFLGRXfq3RxJQatt-o/s1600/spx_sep17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is dominated by the trading range, but within that we have a consolidation triangle. As it stands, the index is at resistance of this triangle, and given recent selling volume I would be looking for a move to close today's gap higher. However, a break of resistance could deliver a nice surge - so we may have another swing trade opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRgjqsvmB0tARSu-L1QxK8_SWmLcmq64jEtlmCmshtjHet8xNpYKAxYoQ2nN39CWs35p5mg4nS0LFdLC3IQAotGnyUXm8gT57BCAl-r9mWXeOZbjNYIl3FQUGQQuPI4lRcNVGQoSQure42jwgM6fXKlVgnuc6yF4k1L58eEUneeZoYn6qJpXDX/s1600/nas_sep17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRgjqsvmB0tARSu-L1QxK8_SWmLcmq64jEtlmCmshtjHet8xNpYKAxYoQ2nN39CWs35p5mg4nS0LFdLC3IQAotGnyUXm8gT57BCAl-r9mWXeOZbjNYIl3FQUGQQuPI4lRcNVGQoSQure42jwgM6fXKlVgnuc6yF4k1L58eEUneeZoYn6qJpXDX/s1600/nas_sep17.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has edged its way back to former support - now resistance - and is well placed to deliver a spike high tomorrow. If this was the case, the next move would be down towards the 50-day MA. Again, I haven't changed my bullish outlook, but in the near term, a move lower would be welcome.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8g7LXeYA1Q_fRhRnEzWdHefQraHJAt0svQfCVduShQE5vR-fonAjiaTQjArq_QJCZR_8Vr6zM3WSpGYewJXeyISNIPIGvumewXUeXtCrqvc-82xRazpvQucReP95u-26ZAgbNpnv0Pf3P3KwmwN1x27HrVQ2d8DLJBjvfWKv_vMvUusQ5RbJN/s1600/btcusd_sep17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8g7LXeYA1Q_fRhRnEzWdHefQraHJAt0svQfCVduShQE5vR-fonAjiaTQjArq_QJCZR_8Vr6zM3WSpGYewJXeyISNIPIGvumewXUeXtCrqvc-82xRazpvQucReP95u-26ZAgbNpnv0Pf3P3KwmwN1x27HrVQ2d8DLJBjvfWKv_vMvUusQ5RbJN/s1600/btcusd_sep17.png"/></a></div> <p>We are seeing some volatility creep into the markets, and indices at resistance are at a logical point for some selling to bring indices back towards a test of yesterday's lows. Having said that, a break of resistance would drive short covering, that in itself would boost demand for investor buying, and together would offer could option swing trade opportunities. Long term investors could stick with Bitcoin, and maybe look for a bargain on a move back to test the 50-day MA.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-3798684045535204842026-09-15T23:12:12.306+01:002026-09-15T23:12:12.306+01:00<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) delivered on its 'bull trap' as the reversal came all the way back to support before undercutting $288. Selling volume was high but not excessive as the index now looks on course to test its 200-day MA. Stochastics are oversold, and in a bear move these can stay like this for an extended period - so don't be banking on a bounce. What would be bullish is if we get a 'bear trap'; i.e. a close above $287. In the intermediate term (to the end of year) we are due a tradable bounce and a 'bull trap' would set up for one quite nicely.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOi7zHB1JwPyhcE2y4Gi1U64oRpaDpbAhxG3_dOw4XCmPDkLeWiixaw_ie0aLSYx94Q3sNsfgByCLZi7mlWSMGiFUYmZiXujXKzP270do_8x8-QUaVS0zSyYPPo_wxYMu2HuJnLJjdcbgSoNveUbDiP00IzGgJi9IyEOyONQ69rPkEmxQCdAem/s1600/iwm_sep15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOi7zHB1JwPyhcE2y4Gi1U64oRpaDpbAhxG3_dOw4XCmPDkLeWiixaw_ie0aLSYx94Q3sNsfgByCLZi7mlWSMGiFUYmZiXujXKzP270do_8x8-QUaVS0zSyYPPo_wxYMu2HuJnLJjdcbgSoNveUbDiP00IzGgJi9IyEOyONQ69rPkEmxQCdAem/s1600/iwm_sep15.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P closed just below its 50-day MA and is coming under increased pressure to reverse the summer breakout. Another red candlestick will leave this looking at a move to 7,250, and probable 200-day MA test. Watch for a mid-level stochastic test that would mark a long trading opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaUozz1V9r45t7kiBlFk13zaCiCIKT6BLmzTuxuyK80tGIQ5PEG7Yo26No1cAda0XyGfDoUiVTF62Qolpw-ew9Et4aeGSY6lfZM8sueEmYcePYxauwWIW1BrMYsbGhDOVUNdSSk64-ensINPdTjrPiDIcMkSaafKTo-PafYLsiHoWgF30YtNBd/s1600/spx_sep15n.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaUozz1V9r45t7kiBlFk13zaCiCIKT6BLmzTuxuyK80tGIQ5PEG7Yo26No1cAda0XyGfDoUiVTF62Qolpw-ew9Et4aeGSY6lfZM8sueEmYcePYxauwWIW1BrMYsbGhDOVUNdSSk64-ensINPdTjrPiDIcMkSaafKTo-PafYLsiHoWgF30YtNBd/s1600/spx_sep15n.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P lost a little ground but is still holding 8,600 support. Intermediate stochastics are not fully oversold, and while it's not a 'buy' signal it has the potential to deliver one if there is a sharp move below - then above - 8,600.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivAq4e5xBfoW4drgSJmAzHCd7A6K7B-PY_WSKiejMnGdq2U3IiQe2-Co-aAo7MY75R-omOJ4dovS1J0btR34kYmzahN4K2qn2wHm_CB9tuBtogkBTDDaBiI6rXVN_XDi84CoYUz64xnsDEnLj4BPS2fjlEXM1ZtgIiFFnuWBON8YttWcxvIAhs/s1600/spxew_sep15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivAq4e5xBfoW4drgSJmAzHCd7A6K7B-PY_WSKiejMnGdq2U3IiQe2-Co-aAo7MY75R-omOJ4dovS1J0btR34kYmzahN4K2qn2wHm_CB9tuBtogkBTDDaBiI6rXVN_XDi84CoYUz64xnsDEnLj4BPS2fjlEXM1ZtgIiFFnuWBON8YttWcxvIAhs/s1600/spxew_sep15.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is caught in a similar predictament as the S&P with the undercut of its 50-day MA. However, as it's already range bound it's more likely to experience inconsistent price action that won't define the longer term trend until there is a move above 27K or below 25K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaS9gccO8lGHd2MD30h7lSwTHU7bRhMhFepEecv7FB0uOG4sFfdy9Vb-13-ejXOodxwVw6960AMMswW-JpYavgoMBcuQdU-MAgeubtHo-awRuDOaM0TkGMpfAxENGypYxqG9PXbcSmj4QMlt_NBGDpTTmrL_f50bLU5DPp6cbTgkuRoomguvaV/s1600/compq_sep15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaS9gccO8lGHd2MD30h7lSwTHU7bRhMhFepEecv7FB0uOG4sFfdy9Vb-13-ejXOodxwVw6960AMMswW-JpYavgoMBcuQdU-MAgeubtHo-awRuDOaM0TkGMpfAxENGypYxqG9PXbcSmj4QMlt_NBGDpTTmrL_f50bLU5DPp6cbTgkuRoomguvaV/s1600/compq_sep15.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin threw a bit of a wobbler. After posting an early advance Monday, it quickly reversed and undercut support. To me, this still looks a bear fakeout, but don't be surprised if it tags the 50-day MA in the process. Technicals are in good shape and while today's volume registered as distribution, the trend has been firmly bullish since the August surge higher.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgALtB2-EnxZCi9q-X0D2YVGAOQedYocGeknulS894Q6GDmreOx50Um89fTqM7GL59kvrDUyx_Eu048WAkpRudxyulQS1_JhPzH1kIrkenWTmAK41hzJK5PcXpVay_dyrLzyhl02Uck_D8uGPBSHs4FLS19q0udZLJZhAJipivT5MmqzYvGR9DF/s1600/btcusd_sep15b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgALtB2-EnxZCi9q-X0D2YVGAOQedYocGeknulS894Q6GDmreOx50Um89fTqM7GL59kvrDUyx_Eu048WAkpRudxyulQS1_JhPzH1kIrkenWTmAK41hzJK5PcXpVay_dyrLzyhl02Uck_D8uGPBSHs4FLS19q0udZLJZhAJipivT5MmqzYvGR9DF/s1600/btcusd_sep15b.png"/></a></div> <p>Today's action marked a close near the day's lows which suggests some follow through lower tomorrow. If there is a late day rally that creates a spike low in any of the aforementioned assets, then there could be a buying opportunity.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-85751820209195222652026-09-13T20:53:53.925+01:002026-09-13T20:53:53.925+01:00<p>Interesting times for markets this week. I'll start with the Russell 2000 ($IWM) as it finished the week with a bearish black candlestick just above trading range support. Candlestick like Friday's don't typically have a good ending, but if we some form of spike low down to $285 then I would look for a trade-worth low. Note how intermediate-term [39,1] stochastics are now oversold - another reason to pay attention to any reversal candlesticks that appear over the coming days.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRbq9eO8CE39rmFXF3oXEiKUjy_RuXoSp7IQsFlCHr5S6j2Dc4KZxQOMa9hO-o9ADt-JEmO-k-KR9BVd672nvPLXzBxIpNPybjOCg0w4NJ-FMxk9fFCCn-l4mJc3Z9UnX0xAVN9lInoMtzizlzl3nsPsSRx6QljmubinbNTLxWH63Wkg3dHLVV/s1600/iwm_sep11c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRbq9eO8CE39rmFXF3oXEiKUjy_RuXoSp7IQsFlCHr5S6j2Dc4KZxQOMa9hO-o9ADt-JEmO-k-KR9BVd672nvPLXzBxIpNPybjOCg0w4NJ-FMxk9fFCCn-l4mJc3Z9UnX0xAVN9lInoMtzizlzl3nsPsSRx6QljmubinbNTLxWH63Wkg3dHLVV/s1600/iwm_sep11c.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P dug in just above 8,600, although intermediate term stochatics are not quite oversold, but the two-bar reversal is a nice setup for bulls.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOySch7393YFRkSSEqLqyDLYLlWPIN723HKRY38bpDCTep0cmzvEJnmhNF1SRkDyB8K7nMxYhRgX-TwNs3Yi-U0YxOUpw5L_jZrySfkOGvh4iBWjar6Zkk_An_tFDlyL7_jWv9TELSlf8Apmg7lR6aUgp86R74yaMuPGLwKo7X7fLGo2C7QVWV/s1600/spxew_sep11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOySch7393YFRkSSEqLqyDLYLlWPIN723HKRY38bpDCTep0cmzvEJnmhNF1SRkDyB8K7nMxYhRgX-TwNs3Yi-U0YxOUpw5L_jZrySfkOGvh4iBWjar6Zkk_An_tFDlyL7_jWv9TELSlf8Apmg7lR6aUgp86R74yaMuPGLwKo7X7fLGo2C7QVWV/s1600/spxew_sep11.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P continues to hold support of 7,600 and its 50-day MA. Intermediate stochastics are above the bullish mid-line - which is good news if you are a bull as any such test would mark a likely successful bull-market pullback. Other techncals are bearish, but remain in a good position to recover.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAAFGbQJlllj2Z9VzXMH9Mef0DUfQGmuy_yhAI7OcBt2cLwaNjcz2G5cs_zuDP9zHNp9lLeDQ5oG1iZMNiIvOj_8x_jKi_L3GQWIXpWIs2CsoDyr7CjUY958eazy5BfxcGr2Dx2M5XoFF3tLkmEnwooZG4ujYHNVH04CwW3SVZ9CGsVZcD4SrU/s1600/spx_sep11b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAAFGbQJlllj2Z9VzXMH9Mef0DUfQGmuy_yhAI7OcBt2cLwaNjcz2G5cs_zuDP9zHNp9lLeDQ5oG1iZMNiIvOj_8x_jKi_L3GQWIXpWIs2CsoDyr7CjUY958eazy5BfxcGr2Dx2M5XoFF3tLkmEnwooZG4ujYHNVH04CwW3SVZ9CGsVZcD4SrU/s1600/spx_sep11b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is caught in the middle of its trading range but is holding its 50-day MA. It's hard to know which way this wants to break. The longer term trend in On-Balance-Volume is down (distribution), which suggests a move to 25K is favored. However, if the 50-day MA holds on, then 27K is next up; measure risk:reward accordingly.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcwW-k04d-HL5Zkjb8cSTcuK2OIQo__MtPUJqgdZLuLVknhTkK_ZXBI1U_MmzZlfij8Phz4Nu6NOrncJBsjOxYeHguDeeiG7_jvtKf7ICf-iW7ICzacf65vmMnoiOa6ovAKPgYlLyIVdsjvFHnUjtFBzGMVr8FHWbrbDtxDjORDEf7W0tiNzdH/s1600/compq_sep11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcwW-k04d-HL5Zkjb8cSTcuK2OIQo__MtPUJqgdZLuLVknhTkK_ZXBI1U_MmzZlfij8Phz4Nu6NOrncJBsjOxYeHguDeeiG7_jvtKf7ICf-iW7ICzacf65vmMnoiOa6ovAKPgYlLyIVdsjvFHnUjtFBzGMVr8FHWbrbDtxDjORDEf7W0tiNzdH/s1600/compq_sep11.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>If we look at Nasdaq Breadth Metrics, we have the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index and Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA technically oversold, which can mean a support breakdown or a bullish reversal. From a trade perspective, it might be a swing trade as the next move is likely to be sizable. </p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhndF6GsoAPALPCi-7Ax43VFM1uaR7CKsSZ3dsFUCReFhT87A0K2GKLy5ViGxsX7tXbvHOdj1mVVu3v9mhRGUhmnUfy1lS9hiO7DlIRu0iclYS0WFHOM3pBesaqCWrmSQF0YNgB0Qa4F9cWtyScZ1bMExzOxulAH_AHbw7M2mFd3qpUYBdi9n-4/s1600/naa50R_sep11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhndF6GsoAPALPCi-7Ax43VFM1uaR7CKsSZ3dsFUCReFhT87A0K2GKLy5ViGxsX7tXbvHOdj1mVVu3v9mhRGUhmnUfy1lS9hiO7DlIRu0iclYS0WFHOM3pBesaqCWrmSQF0YNgB0Qa4F9cWtyScZ1bMExzOxulAH_AHbw7M2mFd3qpUYBdi9n-4/s1600/naa50R_sep11.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcV3o0cLG5_AmbAeEpKVoeYJuFrUhyphenhyphenLGd7Lz-3UJrms2kR9QaE1meIkHji9GjuPC-owRNFy_I3fBm5QwU-KTl262qIa0z-eFvxbZTHpku_yX2q713FhV3ayBCgM7l5YXA_Tw151qTIaQwEUuGQg_XkV6-sqkMGvnxbD5mV0-3SldHR84s3QYH5/s1600/nasi_sep11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcV3o0cLG5_AmbAeEpKVoeYJuFrUhyphenhyphenLGd7Lz-3UJrms2kR9QaE1meIkHji9GjuPC-owRNFy_I3fBm5QwU-KTl262qIa0z-eFvxbZTHpku_yX2q713FhV3ayBCgM7l5YXA_Tw151qTIaQwEUuGQg_XkV6-sqkMGvnxbD5mV0-3SldHR84s3QYH5/s1600/nasi_sep11.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Another one to watch for is the Dow Industrial Average. We have a trend break, but also a successful defense of 52K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_9ouLx7ndGK7ri1r8rOM_mE5Ol_0QRnyAdKAxP0ewTwIQy2s2ERSf3M_2IN3Z__N4p_KgZD68Y2fpfCxj9sw_f9kuOt73byBUZV1-BY3nAPohAjLqiLRV-hEYEuvQb5d7uXBBnWw0rM_fIEVRWS6WXmUtD_Ub8BcwhRsjJDurIEAHj1SOJbrT/s1600/btcusd_sep11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_9ouLx7ndGK7ri1r8rOM_mE5Ol_0QRnyAdKAxP0ewTwIQy2s2ERSf3M_2IN3Z__N4p_KgZD68Y2fpfCxj9sw_f9kuOt73byBUZV1-BY3nAPohAjLqiLRV-hEYEuvQb5d7uXBBnWw0rM_fIEVRWS6WXmUtD_Ub8BcwhRsjJDurIEAHj1SOJbrT/s1600/btcusd_sep11.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin is trading at 76,700 support with a narrow range day from Friday. I'll be looking for some slippage, and then a reversal. Recent action looks like a bearish fakeout with the squeeze towards support, but lets see what traders bring to the table next week.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpCanu9EKXajMC-IOUZbRpygIhX-QUTuUTCzxv-6LMSu7TmRD3AmcKsE6IC-WbiBrRVDAib0mSsroUIzN3s7h5qlL0e2W7ZQnPV_uMdW4uYT3FxNjcFfUjlIoV3xpv2fpiw7np_uDvP-vQTtURq0X8zRoipLoLogD1oPTDOdrQdiVjbMZCv9H-/s1600/btcusd_sep11.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpCanu9EKXajMC-IOUZbRpygIhX-QUTuUTCzxv-6LMSu7TmRD3AmcKsE6IC-WbiBrRVDAib0mSsroUIzN3s7h5qlL0e2W7ZQnPV_uMdW4uYT3FxNjcFfUjlIoV3xpv2fpiw7np_uDvP-vQTtURq0X8zRoipLoLogD1oPTDOdrQdiVjbMZCv9H-/s1600/btcusd_sep11.png"/></a></div> <p>It's still a bit of a toss up for indices. A break of the trading range in the Russell 2000 is no guarantee the S&P and Nasdaq will fail to hold their respective support. Bitcoin is bullish even if sellers take control in early week action; the 'Golden Cross' here is significant and should be respected.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-54387950457364138122026-09-09T22:17:02.424+01:002026-09-09T22:17:02.424+01:00<p>I don't know if the equal-weighted S&P is a harbringer of things to come for other indices, but a second day of heavy selling has undercut the 50-day MA, and breakout support. Technicals shifted net bearish with a worrying undercut of mid-level stochastics. The next support level is down at 8,600s, but I want to see oversold stochastics on such a test. However, the ease at which existing support was lost is a concern.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkRnhk2MRyJ4As5ouidiHjOftcEPiAF87-vPvERD4xduNK6DuTSQdwKZ1bw33Ys4CagI0qqNb0asO2HPDEB8NrRSKv8bD_nKWgLhJST5P7Zy__lU6W22kgLktz_4ozIp29ksPw94DQyOPjVIFs9Bjjxt23gab4yBB-YRJKBpbO_QxrDJDEmE8s/s1600/spxew_sp9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="0" data-original-width="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkRnhk2MRyJ4As5ouidiHjOftcEPiAF87-vPvERD4xduNK6DuTSQdwKZ1bw33Ys4CagI0qqNb0asO2HPDEB8NrRSKv8bD_nKWgLhJST5P7Zy__lU6W22kgLktz_4ozIp29ksPw94DQyOPjVIFs9Bjjxt23gab4yBB-YRJKBpbO_QxrDJDEmE8s/s1600/spxew_sp9.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped-and-ran lower in what looks destined to become a test of $286. Technicals have turned net bearish but are not oversold - again, another reason to think a test of $286 is on the way. Not to harp on the negativity, but today was a second day of distribution in a row.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGReMIrHHhkYOlpdhZnaFJC4jtQJKcONsep0V15TrWhO2BIHXdgucadhPXbf9ff7EUMuOFRBzmgoHkDgK2Y4YF6Qu7kI3vhQQ6RgBd3zGVEtN8ZWvhTUAMDjVRmnFBfrpKR2sXt854eppIt-Fo_g9H4wUNPpBDa8B4jTjm86wT4hLhgq3qL0OZ/s1600/iwm_sep9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="0" data-original-width="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGReMIrHHhkYOlpdhZnaFJC4jtQJKcONsep0V15TrWhO2BIHXdgucadhPXbf9ff7EUMuOFRBzmgoHkDgK2Y4YF6Qu7kI3vhQQ6RgBd3zGVEtN8ZWvhTUAMDjVRmnFBfrpKR2sXt854eppIt-Fo_g9H4wUNPpBDa8B4jTjm86wT4hLhgq3qL0OZ/s1600/iwm_sep9.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P recorded a modest loss, but on net distribution. It hasn't undercut the swing low (yet), but it's hard to see how it can hold on. The prudent action may to step-off and wait and see how it performs around 7,600 before getting back on again. If this closes below 7,600, then I'm looing for a move back to 7,250 (and probably a test of the 200-day MA at the same time).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs2aVug1muaM_mJoVIAcHDxd7jJ3yJqbAKEEmIED2boXRJjC9iNjGtYKvmSt2zS3CuAsCWY8hjXWf_mfFuGM4qnsebWRmOriGCiMC_R8A1BMyN6hO3lBpbZ3kxQV8QcBHA872Pl0A_nBlVVLYrjYjwKX53zFWdl7rVGDxJKQP1iilcR-LiKV97/s1600/spx_sep9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="0" data-original-width="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs2aVug1muaM_mJoVIAcHDxd7jJ3yJqbAKEEmIED2boXRJjC9iNjGtYKvmSt2zS3CuAsCWY8hjXWf_mfFuGM4qnsebWRmOriGCiMC_R8A1BMyN6hO3lBpbZ3kxQV8QcBHA872Pl0A_nBlVVLYrjYjwKX53zFWdl7rVGDxJKQP1iilcR-LiKV97/s1600/spx_sep9.png"/></a></div> <p>For the Nasdaq, the 50-day MA is the line in the sand. I would accept an intraday violation, but a solid red candlestick slicing through the moving average is a 'no-go'.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOJ2aVoowj66LJhHNNpDZO2t5S3SE0f0_lfP8zmLRxODe8nwpeyt3PupHwZ0AbBzycUJkiMjMUNakcFCxfuHk27-_Ue3l9aAkno7b64wgYgPQX8UCJ0IRuSG4rPqepPUSX3N-mSYSDxUZ78gGwiDmAq3_ekSFTI-KCuTPHiJbjs_Jr9yFhARqx/s1600/compq_sep9b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="0" data-original-width="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOJ2aVoowj66LJhHNNpDZO2t5S3SE0f0_lfP8zmLRxODe8nwpeyt3PupHwZ0AbBzycUJkiMjMUNakcFCxfuHk27-_Ue3l9aAkno7b64wgYgPQX8UCJ0IRuSG4rPqepPUSX3N-mSYSDxUZ78gGwiDmAq3_ekSFTI-KCuTPHiJbjs_Jr9yFhARqx/s1600/compq_sep9b.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin sits in an interesting spot. The August surge consolidated around 77.5K, mounted a challenge of 82.5K, before drifting back to its 20-day MA. I would like to see a sharp drop down to 75K to knock out stops, then a recovery back to 77.5K. The cheeky play is to set GTC buy orders around 75K (above and below) then wait-and-see.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigFnB1YhV_zAB2AMV8s_yTuo3ct2-NKBNQ2v795Emlrkmv3EF1WcyF6VXnq2WC5OZUNHtFczsqkXywW85bouEC1SGGUdDE5jeCl2mKQhFvVEow8Gc0xmPXKTl7zk7OvQBF063bmnCS3SLK3msWVgiVKSAaqJrGSOwsBgi_p5QAMzzFA_F0D6s8/s1600/btcusd_sep9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="0" data-original-width="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigFnB1YhV_zAB2AMV8s_yTuo3ct2-NKBNQ2v795Emlrkmv3EF1WcyF6VXnq2WC5OZUNHtFczsqkXywW85bouEC1SGGUdDE5jeCl2mKQhFvVEow8Gc0xmPXKTl7zk7OvQBF063bmnCS3SLK3msWVgiVKSAaqJrGSOwsBgi_p5QAMzzFA_F0D6s8/s1600/btcusd_sep9.png"/></a></div> <p>I was bullish for markets, but I'm shifting more neutral. The long trades in the Nasdaq and S&P haven't been violated yet, but should selling in the equal-weighted S&P and Russell 2000 continue then it would be hard for other indices to avoid the damage.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-89781033629820234912026-09-07T11:17:21.197+01:002026-09-08T10:24:30.778+01:00<p>Friday's losses were modest, and traded volume below that of prior day's buying. This has established a baseline risk (a loss of last week's swing low) for any future upside reward. We won't want to see an extension of Friday's selling as this would put immediate pressure on those lows, particularly if buyers can't stage a comeback in early afternoon trading should losses kick off early.</p> <p>The Nasdaq is nicely positioned. It's range bound, so can flux either way, but traders do seem prepared to defend its 50-day MA, and given its below its 52-week high it will not have attracted the attention of momentum traders/algos yet. Wednesday's and Thursday's trading ranked as accumulation. The +DI edged above -DI (bull trend), but with the ADX below 20 it's only a weak trend - typical of a trading range.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_r9z_mQvpJLKOIMnuiaYYSWz2SKUrKcA7albOSolOcraeNle-SKU8eGbYHxrF7pPDdYvBw_ukwAmW0UMqlVCM0ifPf1a6XKr_xPAVm2HcJbKBrYePD7VdpFIgv4GixiKp1dkM2viqykh2a-lYRCgip4GZ-URmyKQVevvjwwaBYljNT2ENYKrf/s1600/compq_sep7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_r9z_mQvpJLKOIMnuiaYYSWz2SKUrKcA7albOSolOcraeNle-SKU8eGbYHxrF7pPDdYvBw_ukwAmW0UMqlVCM0ifPf1a6XKr_xPAVm2HcJbKBrYePD7VdpFIgv4GixiKp1dkM2viqykh2a-lYRCgip4GZ-URmyKQVevvjwwaBYljNT2ENYKrf/s1600/compq_sep7.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P has successfully defended 7,600 support for a second time (although if it makes a third pass at this level I would not be so optimistic). Friday's selling was light and it too enjoyed a bullish cross in +DI/-DI. I would like to see a new MACD 'buy' signal, which would be a strong buy signal given its position above the zero midline.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJo3-fU1GXd26WEQQa7CT0QGMSm0Qb-WCgQwD77ON9J0i1EJCejpmdMi0DkQJle7uT8Wn7dvYedVoIFvkjNZ8ZVHe0QiPSddPO2MOTl3ssaZUomMV0jw55CCAqq7u_jk7L4npLrE4ON1M4wDTqZohWeNA8rma-Ae2jNWumCz26TuEpk3aIu_4C/s1600/SPX_sep7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJo3-fU1GXd26WEQQa7CT0QGMSm0Qb-WCgQwD77ON9J0i1EJCejpmdMi0DkQJle7uT8Wn7dvYedVoIFvkjNZ8ZVHe0QiPSddPO2MOTl3ssaZUomMV0jw55CCAqq7u_jk7L4npLrE4ON1M4wDTqZohWeNA8rma-Ae2jNWumCz26TuEpk3aIu_4C/s1600/SPX_sep7.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has a bit more overhead to overcome. We had the breakdown from the tight range that undercut both its 20-day and 50-day MAs. Its now looking 'up' to these moving averages. Thursday's small black (doji) candlestick at resistance is generally not good news, but Friday went a long way to negating its inherent bearishness. The index is range bound amd my outlook is more neutral, whichis reflectd in its mixed technicals (neither overbought or oversold).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSx1ZAbKsDGEvc7T18B_4HY57F2AKWz0BDzPZnJHrRqi72qjAo6U11FcuOB1CDHeayfSgYCnYxcF-MYimTrz9-HYi_NdOKCooEeVjjHgPPWLGvDEAFDs8-JGC3qXCBxr57Fn8uSiOlGnVxfculvyTw8kWbvpHiwUtyJ1mjO_UhXXmGXc8XUE3Y/s1600/iwm_sep7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSx1ZAbKsDGEvc7T18B_4HY57F2AKWz0BDzPZnJHrRqi72qjAo6U11FcuOB1CDHeayfSgYCnYxcF-MYimTrz9-HYi_NdOKCooEeVjjHgPPWLGvDEAFDs8-JGC3qXCBxr57Fn8uSiOlGnVxfculvyTw8kWbvpHiwUtyJ1mjO_UhXXmGXc8XUE3Y/s1600/iwm_sep7.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P is toying with its 50-day MA and breakout support, but the bounce has come a little early based on the stochastics - I like to see a bounce from the 50-midline (circled), but maybe the next swing down will give the trade-worthy bottom.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAmrkfTBi62iH0UzCSQ10DYtzJb0tsGRNoJo2gKYNNjqfDE-OtKgZRmFxJ4J7o2ogdhjb9FefHREb4B0OLjx6L1246b7suFXZF5MGE9173Ae_u8MJNemJ3pi4EKZ8vJcp36wP6lbhjPZgpg6lldIjvbgptmpZN0pSYYC-UN6Ph54LrPcUmm7R/s1600/spxew_sep7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiAmrkfTBi62iH0UzCSQ10DYtzJb0tsGRNoJo2gKYNNjqfDE-OtKgZRmFxJ4J7o2ogdhjb9FefHREb4B0OLjx6L1246b7suFXZF5MGE9173Ae_u8MJNemJ3pi4EKZ8vJcp36wP6lbhjPZgpg6lldIjvbgptmpZN0pSYYC-UN6Ph54LrPcUmm7R/s1600/spxew_sep7.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin is at a point of interest. After its big surge the cryptocurrency has stalled at its 50-week MA. I don't think it will stay there for long, but its interesting to see sellers. This will shape a right-hand-base into 2027/28, and I remain long term bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOIyAl8KEZo97S0ST54JW2OHf_CWA3G3ncEXe50tx8B6_So6x0BBK_BwPTc5THLyD5OqUPUtmh8xxhuUTh4kAjtpz6F0_g2k1DiJYZFf7OvV07uJZr93yj7mGLY8qkdWb04P9m-WkPRwHqsQXNjR3_uAjwQwU-ltpQPLQ8Wb_QOWTJJ7ZSon0y/s1600/btcusd_sep7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOIyAl8KEZo97S0ST54JW2OHf_CWA3G3ncEXe50tx8B6_So6x0BBK_BwPTc5THLyD5OqUPUtmh8xxhuUTh4kAjtpz6F0_g2k1DiJYZFf7OvV07uJZr93yj7mGLY8qkdWb04P9m-WkPRwHqsQXNjR3_uAjwQwU-ltpQPLQ8Wb_QOWTJJ7ZSon0y/s1600/btcusd_sep7.png"/></a></div> <p>If you are looking for a trade, keep an eye out on the Dow Industrial Average. It has bounced off the stochastic midline after an early defense of the 50-day MA (that also followed from a two-bar reversal). This is low key, bullish action. Watch for a 'stop harvest' on drop below 53K, might be a good place for a GTC buy order to take advantage.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9_ebgUdafiY_EwCvWyWQmSd1iWtdXk0BUjO9fvwz2TxFb2IQ3wx1LvTKrbfsCO1gA0t-x5THN3ha6N84aputNyggA4LWsqe_Oc1oMFvOy566F-rtDod6Vls9oyjx_bhrmng1jZWm8hZ5LacAfMszyI2zgdy8mqcnoo9Jeww8Wz-R1eQH7wxiL/s1600/indu_sep7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9_ebgUdafiY_EwCvWyWQmSd1iWtdXk0BUjO9fvwz2TxFb2IQ3wx1LvTKrbfsCO1gA0t-x5THN3ha6N84aputNyggA4LWsqe_Oc1oMFvOy566F-rtDod6Vls9oyjx_bhrmng1jZWm8hZ5LacAfMszyI2zgdy8mqcnoo9Jeww8Wz-R1eQH7wxiL/s1600/indu_sep7.png"/></a></div> <p>For the coming week, keep a bullish eye on markets. If we get a big red candlestick Monday or Tuesday, then we may need to reassess the bullish thesis, but things look good for now.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-736555734371414342026-09-02T23:08:56.709+01:002026-09-02T23:08:56.710+01:00<p>The equal-weighted S&P found buyers close to its 50-day MA, creating a higher high as momentum moves towards midline support of a bull cycle. Watch for a move down to test 8,725 - if this was to come on bullish spike (hammer or doji) it could be considered a good buying opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgosgnkXmKXKA8PfWhxqE8M2lSfdbp1sBDVshH3vEsJX9YIN1qh9J9aNWT9ZlTXutJVAlmVDGcm8lxVs4G0AUwL6eQLgvPUBgwNeXN_E_AnTela02Um1TsIjA8_HAOJmIze4wjC_faWabA5WHx6c6jwPhehCr6Wzlne6fySm50BPKVjHdOdnXBn/s1600/spxew_sep9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgosgnkXmKXKA8PfWhxqE8M2lSfdbp1sBDVshH3vEsJX9YIN1qh9J9aNWT9ZlTXutJVAlmVDGcm8lxVs4G0AUwL6eQLgvPUBgwNeXN_E_AnTela02Um1TsIjA8_HAOJmIze4wjC_faWabA5WHx6c6jwPhehCr6Wzlne6fySm50BPKVjHdOdnXBn/s1600/spxew_sep9.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is attempting a double bottom sub-$290. I would like to see Stochastics [39,1] below 20 to confirm. However, the 'bull trap' from August is the dominant influence, and such patterns typically result in a minimum test of prior support ($287), and often, something worse. As with the equal-weighted S&P, I would like to see a spike low to $285.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG7Fxq2lMGlSezkogFV9JFHmVWGgYXRBc0hA7GSaeegSHIZaSgJiE26K2uQinHac_aWeEHS8Mna8RppAYBrR7Z5EeROO8fWR-sn0x4vv22oldhEb7EsFFHpQ72Kixve2hGoepgLARC_LFH6_lrkNA4fhMguLYznSCFmpsEalNo6PeqYsg3kLgJ/s1600/iwm_sep2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG7Fxq2lMGlSezkogFV9JFHmVWGgYXRBc0hA7GSaeegSHIZaSgJiE26K2uQinHac_aWeEHS8Mna8RppAYBrR7Z5EeROO8fWR-sn0x4vv22oldhEb7EsFFHpQ72Kixve2hGoepgLARC_LFH6_lrkNA4fhMguLYznSCFmpsEalNo6PeqYsg3kLgJ/s1600/iwm_sep2.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P is bouncing around just above breakout support of 7,600. This might be the best 'buy-now' play with the 50-day MA just below to lend additional support. Technicals are mixed, edging bearish, with momentum only drifting out of an overbought state. As trend trader you want to see this overbought, so it's going to take a few days of buying to get this back there.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnartfwWbodRTwPOlNV1lxN4kwSMsqfqiu6OZAVBZ7fuJgshJSydbwRLnf4NenCtQvUV6R2JbUJIIdekjL0NyuPxZPAE4L8OynwMOv5H3vC3TzjyDNsXn285qJ8nqOsPxEDXT_A9KLUS4OdswMy7qUMELGGBkfh8xZu26_HtraGHKuGilLQk1v/s1600/spx_sep2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnartfwWbodRTwPOlNV1lxN4kwSMsqfqiu6OZAVBZ7fuJgshJSydbwRLnf4NenCtQvUV6R2JbUJIIdekjL0NyuPxZPAE4L8OynwMOv5H3vC3TzjyDNsXn285qJ8nqOsPxEDXT_A9KLUS4OdswMy7qUMELGGBkfh8xZu26_HtraGHKuGilLQk1v/s1600/spx_sep2.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq has been quietly doing its own thing, holding support at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs while trading in the middle of a 25-27K range. As with the S&P it has only recently dropped out of an overbought state (somewhat unusual for a trading range), but still sides with bulls for those looking for buying opportunities.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4vnghg-WNYvyIEkvdkaM3NT4mko2RQiVlhptwMQKU42m0nOjHjjANWkdD_yUqKzI0BIHqaRLGzffy0XSBMaWdLSFQpni1zxcc8TppQDT2-cxlcUu89gm1kD0X-mowPc6nBVPq3HO0D2OzbN_fr3NMAI6PEgLVzchUm67UWc0qf2z147ckzD-/s1600/compq_sep2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4vnghg-WNYvyIEkvdkaM3NT4mko2RQiVlhptwMQKU42m0nOjHjjANWkdD_yUqKzI0BIHqaRLGzffy0XSBMaWdLSFQpni1zxcc8TppQDT2-cxlcUu89gm1kD0X-mowPc6nBVPq3HO0D2OzbN_fr3NMAI6PEgLVzchUm67UWc0qf2z147ckzD-/s1600/compq_sep2.png"/></a></div> <p>I'm liking action in Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). The consolidation is trading in the upper part of the third of the three large white candles. The spike lows denote demand on drops below 77.5K, but I think a fake out move to the 20-day MA to shake weak hands would be preferable (although of course, may not happen). Of available trades, this is the most bullish, it's just hard to measure the risk:reward.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhlUAHmPLw0g7zO3oMYLHGZzeA5CMr2lntainv8CLc83VsAhXPXI6KpbrVYj4h75NF5nqZvs5udgWoG6wFDV_whYynwrneLJNfDQ7C_f4xDt37Udxwxof6Q5NAktvI6kyT7WJxEb_DZK1pi2OYX0Q3zCEOe_8Dxcv3xwXG_SWxx40qkPcmi9np/s1600/btcusd_sep2.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhlUAHmPLw0g7zO3oMYLHGZzeA5CMr2lntainv8CLc83VsAhXPXI6KpbrVYj4h75NF5nqZvs5udgWoG6wFDV_whYynwrneLJNfDQ7C_f4xDt37Udxwxof6Q5NAktvI6kyT7WJxEb_DZK1pi2OYX0Q3zCEOe_8Dxcv3xwXG_SWxx40qkPcmi9np/s1600/btcusd_sep2.png"/></a></div> <p>Sellers may be gathering the headlines, but markets remain in relatively good shape. I like the alignment reset of indices relative to their 200-day MAs, although there is still plenty of room to go before tests of these moving averages can be considered. The S&P has the lowest risk for longs, Bitcoin has the best upside potential.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div></p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-57765008230715949952026-08-31T22:53:48.830+01:002026-08-31T22:53:48.831+01:00<p>Indices continued to drift with the Russell 2000 ($IWM) experiencing the largest loss. Technicals for the Russell 2000 are net bearish with the index on course to test $287. Both 20-day and 50-day MAs are now cleanly undercut. Trading volume increased to register a second day of distribution in a row. Momentum has been in a bull cycle since April. It waivered in July before it recovered, but it's already in the same position now as it was then, with no price support nearby; further losses are likely.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjY3b4prmOKx8f6ouCtzWHwcPvzyI-hx7oNyGH2JyIku8FQ7jLL2t6KZ-F601R9-MjH2vD0j9puPexQX2RgyUP7ePlj726Ra1qGzlmwLJmJCNb59aByjJIbZgowIFzQrrvF0xJ9hRNGpU5j31W_FLuLg8oSDtljeNZ-hPb05M1b7L8mC38nn6Bw/s1600/iwn_aug31.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjY3b4prmOKx8f6ouCtzWHwcPvzyI-hx7oNyGH2JyIku8FQ7jLL2t6KZ-F601R9-MjH2vD0j9puPexQX2RgyUP7ePlj726Ra1qGzlmwLJmJCNb59aByjJIbZgowIFzQrrvF0xJ9hRNGpU5j31W_FLuLg8oSDtljeNZ-hPb05M1b7L8mC38nn6Bw/s1600/iwn_aug31.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P also took a decent hit, but unlike the Russell 2000 it's still in a bull trend with strong bullish momentum. I would like to see a test of the 50-day MA, which would maintain the larger bullish trend.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjoySILZHt0QKZTkjImDSiZ658n6COl4e3Vyjlvpo7WwPlAhGiLdB5rrECpPBzGMnfzo8MloW7YwVnrJjrNua_H3bjf1QE061Gq-PSvGie8bkuMU045HtGD9jVFuhdpkBYTKGiDP6Y0sh35G-EtitrtOacXSPixhSzFWkadGUkiytOKL_Pa70S/s1600/spxew_aug31.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjoySILZHt0QKZTkjImDSiZ658n6COl4e3Vyjlvpo7WwPlAhGiLdB5rrECpPBzGMnfzo8MloW7YwVnrJjrNua_H3bjf1QE061Gq-PSvGie8bkuMU045HtGD9jVFuhdpkBYTKGiDP6Y0sh35G-EtitrtOacXSPixhSzFWkadGUkiytOKL_Pa70S/s1600/spxew_aug31.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P only posted a small loss that didn't violate breakout support. Technicals are mixed with only 'weak' sell signals running against stronger bullish momentum.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw6bHxpjSGTCTYfOxEticMjp1vp-ecajjHSPODT2fA0Gs1x7IiILjSQ3lX9T1qCmfaKUS0teE2f0ExtBRxtyzLAAdTS3TeJDfCX7PdfASR9l-vdaF543bq_KLPsiBPIYvqx_WtWcu2OlKW1LHApvM38AjEvMU0DccBcckKKyXeoJ5S-92voHOx/s1600/spx_aug31b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw6bHxpjSGTCTYfOxEticMjp1vp-ecajjHSPODT2fA0Gs1x7IiILjSQ3lX9T1qCmfaKUS0teE2f0ExtBRxtyzLAAdTS3TeJDfCX7PdfASR9l-vdaF543bq_KLPsiBPIYvqx_WtWcu2OlKW1LHApvM38AjEvMU0DccBcckKKyXeoJ5S-92voHOx/s1600/spx_aug31b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq has been range bound since May and Friday's action did little to change that.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv1RBkweHUKSErvMMjGWSVfynf2pELvOkeRH__VBlMJxuCMyg1OGDpMwul4aYSFzj-Whe2Xo3Lbg9eMsDHvcFGoLkZ1fH6ye-f-i-DkRjWQoKaXcuYi7bRi0ahh7QIWQo9PcrOe0Aig4c_e9iLyLC-R0xwxZrk-QiuGUGim3p4l9E_fKosuPrY/s1600/compq_aug31.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv1RBkweHUKSErvMMjGWSVfynf2pELvOkeRH__VBlMJxuCMyg1OGDpMwul4aYSFzj-Whe2Xo3Lbg9eMsDHvcFGoLkZ1fH6ye-f-i-DkRjWQoKaXcuYi7bRi0ahh7QIWQo9PcrOe0Aig4c_e9iLyLC-R0xwxZrk-QiuGUGim3p4l9E_fKosuPrY/s1600/compq_aug31.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin closed higher as it shapes a nice consolidation after the surge past $75K. Watch for a measured move higher with a projected target of $92K.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFefOPAtdSgvMfB3n0DffM8OHiVuyY5if35lQ4jbkaw5QucTtozNefcyyIgRU4SJ0wNRhEBp8y686Fruw8pX-blY2T2hripimyOZLJPKVBqYC2rqk8PGbMBYlr9f2mDBSo1gw-Hxa_0DeseApG2WD5WRKj0KpKxHr72TwJQ0M0afGaR_40covm/s1600/btcusd_aug31.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFefOPAtdSgvMfB3n0DffM8OHiVuyY5if35lQ4jbkaw5QucTtozNefcyyIgRU4SJ0wNRhEBp8y686Fruw8pX-blY2T2hripimyOZLJPKVBqYC2rqk8PGbMBYlr9f2mDBSo1gw-Hxa_0DeseApG2WD5WRKj0KpKxHr72TwJQ0M0afGaR_40covm/s1600/btcusd_aug31.png"/></a></div> <p>A watch-and-wait for indices as sellers push looking for support. Bitcoin remains best placed to post further gains and offers a buying opportunity.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-45136868920821106282026-08-29T23:53:02.383+01:002026-08-29T23:53:02.383+01:00<p>Friday's selling looked worse than it did given the sequence of narrow trade days, but it did rank as selling, and in the case of the Russell 2000 (IWM), registered as distribution.</p> <p>Technicals for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) included a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and an acceleration in bearish ADX (+DI/-DI) metrics. Because of the earlier 'bear trap' it's now considered range bound, and now on course for a test of $287.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivTv2hfKcwLQqTeCH7kEQNSEQ_S-oJldaQ_s_boAUAinEDx6zWZDN4eS01DMtIA52_o6oxWKx4J56AhcMuAeFXvcR2Ds8DtqWC4wLgy_dELj2EqVF5N6otzBCXwDjfgf61KEo3OXHk695_VHHIxqNg51frWzFDPbwLTEsaHPM67b16PtKrxljK/s1600/iwm_aug29b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivTv2hfKcwLQqTeCH7kEQNSEQ_S-oJldaQ_s_boAUAinEDx6zWZDN4eS01DMtIA52_o6oxWKx4J56AhcMuAeFXvcR2Ds8DtqWC4wLgy_dELj2EqVF5N6otzBCXwDjfgf61KEo3OXHk695_VHHIxqNg51frWzFDPbwLTEsaHPM67b16PtKrxljK/s1600/iwm_aug29b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P eased back to its 20-day MA while remaining in a bullish trend. It will probably morph into a trading range, but it will take a high degree of selling to get there. Technicals are mostly bullish with only a 'weak' MACD sell to navigate.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtvKD_aeSehjWXdcVlXGeAVXdTRQaVeGZGzZK6H75lfJutJphfmoN3IAhjQcuu0Qn1kslFYZ3bFPMy-dGyr6HjlUme4OuMIFqjScVl2vA4GHgpncGlVh2ktqW8C785aMIK4b2fvP_qY2A5jXbHfQNjWv7jJeRVLBirzjqKLdhm47vFjzfmZWFr/s1600/spxew_aug29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtvKD_aeSehjWXdcVlXGeAVXdTRQaVeGZGzZK6H75lfJutJphfmoN3IAhjQcuu0Qn1kslFYZ3bFPMy-dGyr6HjlUme4OuMIFqjScVl2vA4GHgpncGlVh2ktqW8C785aMIK4b2fvP_qY2A5jXbHfQNjWv7jJeRVLBirzjqKLdhm47vFjzfmZWFr/s1600/spxew_aug29.png"/></a></div> <p>The weighted S&P maintained its breakout on a weak candlestick. It could tolerate a few more days of selling, but dropping below 7,600 would leave it open to a larger retracement back to 7,235. There is a weak MACD trigger 'sell' to navigate, but there are support levels to work with.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWZPc0NzuaZdf06H13qOqaejs_JkSDiojFrGayc0kRqqK6WT7z5huIeBUHF9ZsH3Gp3vwjds3XG1bhFEEdOeraHeNvxlT3pkTpXbL7GhaBC558h8vcC_U167dAOUXBNgdN2TEZbt0J8Goz6qt6mRUCcPUVv-tv6R20EKQdpe7twW4jFNaaJOkc/s1600/spx_aug29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWZPc0NzuaZdf06H13qOqaejs_JkSDiojFrGayc0kRqqK6WT7z5huIeBUHF9ZsH3Gp3vwjds3XG1bhFEEdOeraHeNvxlT3pkTpXbL7GhaBC558h8vcC_U167dAOUXBNgdN2TEZbt0J8Goz6qt6mRUCcPUVv-tv6R20EKQdpe7twW4jFNaaJOkc/s1600/spx_aug29.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq has been range bound for a while, and Friday's action didn't change that. Friday's volume ranked as distribution, but that's just noise in the context of the range.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjgK3WQqIPlpVun7Bvof0YEiyrc4AQS09ow5svvoweIfD2tEog8sfIlWJsJjisLw_QE-7md8sodjSazieHoHoAsM5lEO3wgZEO6yvzz2X8FNFTGjHO92ja1_wWdyofs_MVvE6KffJ6sRvcpTMmfEPuaQbF-eKygjGIt-hYWV3GvIX_XpdtpVw8/s1600/compq_aug29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjgK3WQqIPlpVun7Bvof0YEiyrc4AQS09ow5svvoweIfD2tEog8sfIlWJsJjisLw_QE-7md8sodjSazieHoHoAsM5lEO3wgZEO6yvzz2X8FNFTGjHO92ja1_wWdyofs_MVvE6KffJ6sRvcpTMmfEPuaQbF-eKygjGIt-hYWV3GvIX_XpdtpVw8/s1600/compq_aug29.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin didn't move sharply lower. I expect it will come, but is likely to be a fake out to shake out weak-hand bulls. Certainly there has been a sharp move in favor of bulls and May highs are playing as resistance.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9HRJrrxZ2lsUBClOENR_d_3tyQ7lGAaaFGh8fdWUiB3nBgL1Eqi22dgyg1TzPArwvzxiv-DvZ3IQO7_85YrAqhFGmSJ0Li8SK5nl-p8BEJg4C4J8m3dIoDuXHxK63A3f6vehZu4lg8ulXwQWcl-WjnQiNVSqAgWtLbHI3LJRgqfNqQlKhfTAd/s1600/btusd_aug29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9HRJrrxZ2lsUBClOENR_d_3tyQ7lGAaaFGh8fdWUiB3nBgL1Eqi22dgyg1TzPArwvzxiv-DvZ3IQO7_85YrAqhFGmSJ0Li8SK5nl-p8BEJg4C4J8m3dIoDuXHxK63A3f6vehZu4lg8ulXwQWcl-WjnQiNVSqAgWtLbHI3LJRgqfNqQlKhfTAd/s1600/btusd_aug29.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors had rebounded to its 50-day MA, before reversing back towards its 200-day MA. The 61.8% retracement is near 10K and the fast approaching 200-day MA - making it a likely test.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLYd60FSyw04FKKZJ17kaw1qX6nK0zih9X_pxWFUcXpeeQdaTPJqsyEtOJW1KJq_Rs0JLbOo0Q4sa0V2EIjptY2e5rlkOREzbETnmwzF4db8MIgEgBJHYC3R5vImpDnrxrNOeUDvO8uvKuHewO9VSLhisY9vD_kprKtZnCPLFzUvdv1jVOVV6K/s1600/sox_aug29.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLYd60FSyw04FKKZJ17kaw1qX6nK0zih9X_pxWFUcXpeeQdaTPJqsyEtOJW1KJq_Rs0JLbOo0Q4sa0V2EIjptY2e5rlkOREzbETnmwzF4db8MIgEgBJHYC3R5vImpDnrxrNOeUDvO8uvKuHewO9VSLhisY9vD_kprKtZnCPLFzUvdv1jVOVV6K/s1600/sox_aug29.png"/></a></div> <p>For next week, watch for a sharp intraday reversal, likely after an early morning sell off. Markets are set up for a larger bullish move higher, but a good shakeout would be a large help.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.com