tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100197042026-05-20T22:39:54.264+01:00Stock Market Commentary by Dr. Declan Fallon; est. Jan 8th 2005Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comBlogger4612125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-21732574851267818512026-05-20T22:36:34.101+01:002026-05-20T22:39:54.264+01:00<p>After a couple of weeks of selling, buyers decided to step in and reverse the near term trend. Buying volume stepped up in confirmed accumulation. It was a good trade for those who took advantage, and it's increasingly looking like new trading ranges will come out of this.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had a support level to work with, but will likely find resistance at its 20-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyXn-u78vHEEN3R5pb3Vk5NyKfhJCFa6JQPdUdn5syp90f7EaaJ2qA66Av4errUxpsrXdIxJTpL0FiwkOBftENdmugxYM5I4O8inTEeHsafhYz4opZVHqcmWrpwJ8aUyIVELH5wRc1hjUTy37XHYPUgCk1NOzC_n65Y_oKUG4Y8wL_XRlBBZiH/s1600/iwm_may20b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyXn-u78vHEEN3R5pb3Vk5NyKfhJCFa6JQPdUdn5syp90f7EaaJ2qA66Av4errUxpsrXdIxJTpL0FiwkOBftENdmugxYM5I4O8inTEeHsafhYz4opZVHqcmWrpwJ8aUyIVELH5wRc1hjUTy37XHYPUgCk1NOzC_n65Y_oKUG4Y8wL_XRlBBZiH/s1600/iwm_may20b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>I had mentioned Bitcoin yesterday, and while it didn't post the gains of other indices, it could have a big day tomorrow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZzLfMCKn4PPcLZ9gNsXT8yGc9jUsMGgK2V7MWA-U9l3zzEP5eVwnxeqIruseu6QoS-DIHVVoQnMTz8GSWXnKAJ4PRerMKX06vOkdlmltOLCJgsaL0d2jzAd3bVLKKDuH05gX5U0yQdzIQFwPZjB8aLHR0DDOSa_iJ_jQ7wgm2bpydF-PDUING/s1600/btcuusd_may20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZzLfMCKn4PPcLZ9gNsXT8yGc9jUsMGgK2V7MWA-U9l3zzEP5eVwnxeqIruseu6QoS-DIHVVoQnMTz8GSWXnKAJ4PRerMKX06vOkdlmltOLCJgsaL0d2jzAd3bVLKKDuH05gX5U0yQdzIQFwPZjB8aLHR0DDOSa_iJ_jQ7wgm2bpydF-PDUING/s1600/btcuusd_may20.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P finished on a solid bullish engulfing pattern, and this could become a nice breakout for those looking to get in before 8.3K is challenged.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXoKalkvY9Y1n5XdZcmIdtSROsX2KS-MuHBP1LzHRIpJd45PcqEfYbu1hzolZq5GTAIrUlvXSD6sz-fz-_uR-re9Y2wq7V-GOmzwk1d304ym6WZ3GoFUpl_jwAbF1jUUVM_5VTwZE37NrsFirZ6s_hNJo55t1eYtLOjWVScQWTQtWGSWrMNWPM/s1600/spxew_may20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXoKalkvY9Y1n5XdZcmIdtSROsX2KS-MuHBP1LzHRIpJd45PcqEfYbu1hzolZq5GTAIrUlvXSD6sz-fz-_uR-re9Y2wq7V-GOmzwk1d304ym6WZ3GoFUpl_jwAbF1jUUVM_5VTwZE37NrsFirZ6s_hNJo55t1eYtLOjWVScQWTQtWGSWrMNWPM/s1600/spxew_may20.png"/></a></div> <p>Similar story for the Dow Industrial Average.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW3eWQJ7TfV9EmdBZbsKPzcdimORlx3w5O6bzm1M4IQIQss9UF1fJBYNuoSfHdkCm1JEaZ_TxfXoLvdr6IpNQx0l_SmdB-9jqofWpQ8vQOd6wjapR1M-ZoHC5N2IVhf_A1L12yMIyLVrN6W25_B2uxgu0yw35sn_q8iVRm5b906_SgRK6qS9aw/s1600/djia_may20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW3eWQJ7TfV9EmdBZbsKPzcdimORlx3w5O6bzm1M4IQIQss9UF1fJBYNuoSfHdkCm1JEaZ_TxfXoLvdr6IpNQx0l_SmdB-9jqofWpQ8vQOd6wjapR1M-ZoHC5N2IVhf_A1L12yMIyLVrN6W25_B2uxgu0yw35sn_q8iVRm5b906_SgRK6qS9aw/s1600/djia_may20.png"/></a></div> <p>But the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 delivered on a breakout.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYYxAtK4SNVpsvuTnPBYm0sk_rCOsCN_Jxu_TqWoZ2UIQxeG2FVLhgiiFnoAXIo6jFU_lgaMMSmpkgbDs-2sv-Gw1LLNrZ9WC_Xx8DxnLmSt3V6HS5sC69vtry5OF7Wv-HGw6y5t84e4aVv4vkOXFMRRFUU3egQ4P7Duf3VQcA6N16vHJQyeoH/s1600/qqew_may20.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYYxAtK4SNVpsvuTnPBYm0sk_rCOsCN_Jxu_TqWoZ2UIQxeG2FVLhgiiFnoAXIo6jFU_lgaMMSmpkgbDs-2sv-Gw1LLNrZ9WC_Xx8DxnLmSt3V6HS5sC69vtry5OF7Wv-HGw6y5t84e4aVv4vkOXFMRRFUU3egQ4P7Duf3VQcA6N16vHJQyeoH/s1600/qqew_may20.png"/></a></div> <p>Given what has gone for the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100, I would be looking for the same from the equal-weighted S&P and Dow Industrial, with further step gains for Bitcoin.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-31227562421345502232026-05-19T22:22:32.198+01:002026-05-19T22:22:32.198+01:00<p>Markets continue their slow down, but without the panic that many were expecting. Volume continues to slide with distribution the order of the day but all indices have support levels to work with.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is back at the April swing low, and just above the January swing high. This is a natural level to look for support that could offer a new trading range. It may take the approach of the 50-day MA to actually deliver the next rally, but there is time available before this happens. Technicals are mostly negative, but not particularly bad.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwTPGvRsii_pEBCw0e1X7c0DlfoTkHbyqiknrM25ZM5XgLg8ofbFO2-f_Vb9L7QsB3V_Fla3IGX9N5z-NytXkwe-llIIplHpB-MziXWySr-WGMhVznDMsFTEsBzmflyyMxrm_ojddwev7PrgRqKU8LFgjXGGWfrM-1VEFhHWlUKaY22jo6O6P5/s1600/iwm_may19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwTPGvRsii_pEBCw0e1X7c0DlfoTkHbyqiknrM25ZM5XgLg8ofbFO2-f_Vb9L7QsB3V_Fla3IGX9N5z-NytXkwe-llIIplHpB-MziXWySr-WGMhVznDMsFTEsBzmflyyMxrm_ojddwev7PrgRqKU8LFgjXGGWfrM-1VEFhHWlUKaY22jo6O6P5/s1600/iwm_may19.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>There was only a modest loss for the S&P as it approaches its 20-day MA; look for buyers there. Today saw a 'weak' buy signal, but other technicals - momentum in particular - are bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjauowScQ6yENouwDzDOYdrb8OHQ-fl5AGLzy0gvZkY_ZsSQkY_cgszFvpu4mP8Y629UTtJujFMv9XoaJNhyAplArytdAgstyX13VU-dq_N5pi00XDcv-F0HAmq_9cNdFxt1y-7QCk1-O-lGwFaZ1Mu9ngkZMDZZSlNuM5Jk8lK5T2p68u5LPTI/s1600/spx_may19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjauowScQ6yENouwDzDOYdrb8OHQ-fl5AGLzy0gvZkY_ZsSQkY_cgszFvpu4mP8Y629UTtJujFMv9XoaJNhyAplArytdAgstyX13VU-dq_N5pi00XDcv-F0HAmq_9cNdFxt1y-7QCk1-O-lGwFaZ1Mu9ngkZMDZZSlNuM5Jk8lK5T2p68u5LPTI/s1600/spx_may19.png"/></a></div> <p>Ditto for the Nasdaq</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqBP8zCxM0SXqPupSGNWUT-ycTZ27GJdUeYXhFjUOXrqXHNK60q8pJdm3BoGAo8AVSnUZR_t28H8E0ghhiYxj6Mij0jmw3i7tqh2igWHlm7XFX4kMJDfhSvEVBJTEbIRKRfIHTU1GyMCNgyIo0_LYekAF_txRkdQpw1Q7EXgDcmJ-5Om9JmWll/s1600/compq_may19b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqBP8zCxM0SXqPupSGNWUT-ycTZ27GJdUeYXhFjUOXrqXHNK60q8pJdm3BoGAo8AVSnUZR_t28H8E0ghhiYxj6Mij0jmw3i7tqh2igWHlm7XFX4kMJDfhSvEVBJTEbIRKRfIHTU1GyMCNgyIo0_LYekAF_txRkdQpw1Q7EXgDcmJ-5Om9JmWll/s1600/compq_may19b.png"/></a></div> <p>But it may yet again fall to Bitcoin to offer the long trade. I'm liking the converged test of the 50-day MA and 76K support. Technicals are mostly bearish, but not strongly so.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbvA7bVNGpfy4a8C0IJ-DnLht_ANw9uVOG4XfbFtYjV6EgiiZViPI9I8K5A6uuRMhu96wOFxEpAPV45R3TRQz5Bbb_Dxn9tq_UCS1_BFYv_iJGCxuWqLpxXLwJxEofCa2o-fCgOsQyLETZn7g-3m8_qed1AYK2_mOgu-O87Atu-Ev1uezWcG4S/s1600/btcusd_may19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbvA7bVNGpfy4a8C0IJ-DnLht_ANw9uVOG4XfbFtYjV6EgiiZViPI9I8K5A6uuRMhu96wOFxEpAPV45R3TRQz5Bbb_Dxn9tq_UCS1_BFYv_iJGCxuWqLpxXLwJxEofCa2o-fCgOsQyLETZn7g-3m8_qed1AYK2_mOgu-O87Atu-Ev1uezWcG4S/s1600/btcusd_may19.png"/></a></div> <p>Shorts have the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100. This resistance squeeze will deliver near term panic selling if today's lows are breached.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmcuVhDUFKH9cqc0N0Y4Iy7wp1zYdS6pBYK4do6HYiP6BGD4Y2zi4R-5onXv0XVsJMWwyQFFb9Ql7hW_EzypdPY_TBOuUX4wniT_UUH5gd34M_y70KQ3V4UZhkgmCsgGbB6_ARfkJ1-y69nBgbP3SHXlslrI1TUyYXue3F1pmBJi22pW0SU2wc/s1600/qqew_may19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmcuVhDUFKH9cqc0N0Y4Iy7wp1zYdS6pBYK4do6HYiP6BGD4Y2zi4R-5onXv0XVsJMWwyQFFb9Ql7hW_EzypdPY_TBOuUX4wniT_UUH5gd34M_y70KQ3V4UZhkgmCsgGbB6_ARfkJ1-y69nBgbP3SHXlslrI1TUyYXue3F1pmBJi22pW0SU2wc/s1600/qqew_may19.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Indices are governed by broader trends and those trends are bullish. Counter trades are available, but you need to be nimble to not get caught up by the next wave of buying. It all feels rather exhaustive, with the exception of the Russell 2000 and Bitcoin.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72610725675915055802026-05-17T20:45:24.619+01:002026-05-17T20:45:24.619+01:00<p>We had some decent selling across markets on higher volume, that would register as distribution on a normal day, but on options expiration the true picture is a little cloudier. While this selling looks to be damaging, follow through is needed if it's to evolve into something bigger.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) edged back to former handle resistance, turned support, which is also where the 20-day MA can be found. Another day of selling would take it far enough away from this support to leave it looking at the 50-day MA as its probable next step. There was a weak MACD trigger 'sell' as other technicals have held up well despite the index peaking in early May. The relative underperformance against the Nasdaq looks worse than it is, but even if this recovers a little there may be sufficient merit to see buyers come in on money rotation.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnU0KtInXLvj27Wun-7b-L00c9zInIoHzO3JmV1GrrmEmNkSDkkY9zeYvMA1Ew-05g3TQGz0lBpKMWD4rcaGAioYI5vqz7F6YkQNJZWsKbXs_VyQKOupWWiWHkpI-ds2npF4SCnKPmItOT-UuZ7aDbr3-g53ux88DIUJXhFa6-wRUvoo7r23Kn/s1600/iwm_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnU0KtInXLvj27Wun-7b-L00c9zInIoHzO3JmV1GrrmEmNkSDkkY9zeYvMA1Ew-05g3TQGz0lBpKMWD4rcaGAioYI5vqz7F6YkQNJZWsKbXs_VyQKOupWWiWHkpI-ds2npF4SCnKPmItOT-UuZ7aDbr3-g53ux88DIUJXhFa6-wRUvoo7r23Kn/s1600/iwm_may17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>With the weekly chart pointing to a possible 'bull trap' and short play? It has been interesting to see the sharp drop in trade volume since the March lows.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1PROZET_2RDg_eL3KBrB2T3gJqr0T2pFMYahHt37dlG7BUgPNpYbY83bV_N1oFpmaJBD8GeUZPkxWkhEtdxBDQer7oSCOy71rHEf_lxGZgKVS_LV38A1vDDI4cOiTvvD2sheLfJYz9z1lO32ROAM_gKGlx7g3uwntmoMH6KWhP-WbspqqeBG/s1600/iwn_may17w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1PROZET_2RDg_eL3KBrB2T3gJqr0T2pFMYahHt37dlG7BUgPNpYbY83bV_N1oFpmaJBD8GeUZPkxWkhEtdxBDQer7oSCOy71rHEf_lxGZgKVS_LV38A1vDDI4cOiTvvD2sheLfJYz9z1lO32ROAM_gKGlx7g3uwntmoMH6KWhP-WbspqqeBG/s1600/iwn_may17w.png"/></a></div> <p>In contrast, selling was not as intense in the S&P, and given its prior gain, barely registers as a drop. Technicals remain net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT-AjpRKqq2d8OFuKbN3Klv0KFP-aMwxp0ZmKAPHtSGdFU8BDtfa1HPHrfY2_-K69qjuGhJXmcUKyl5W79VV5o5NFDsEQxnW6Hza4vzSO978b_WdXJXLp7yPmvpU_72vnP-BHbBP-pGYpFiTKJvTZphekfGKcp8KsP-yZ0bgQyJ3A5pp7zDzr2/s1600/spx_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT-AjpRKqq2d8OFuKbN3Klv0KFP-aMwxp0ZmKAPHtSGdFU8BDtfa1HPHrfY2_-K69qjuGhJXmcUKyl5W79VV5o5NFDsEQxnW6Hza4vzSO978b_WdXJXLp7yPmvpU_72vnP-BHbBP-pGYpFiTKJvTZphekfGKcp8KsP-yZ0bgQyJ3A5pp7zDzr2/s1600/spx_may17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>But the picture for the equal-weighted S&P looks a little different. Friday's selling was not high in percentage loss terms, but the solid red candlestick on the undercut of the 20-day MA looks ugly, and has the potential to be ugly. Monday's trading will be significant.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghSQClZ32N8zP4tYWopt2mc4U4DjMESMnz1pD71niBeuNz927E9wbbH38BbG5P8Ki_boNx9DLUYUkTjiyHHubWdJUkixhDE27T6Bn8VAqyxIlORqoMdDVniNMZeQ9fMDTFyZ5TNUzyV4SWl70DndcqZFes02egFU3U2_xImwUq1am-kdnZAoNp/s1600/spxew_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghSQClZ32N8zP4tYWopt2mc4U4DjMESMnz1pD71niBeuNz927E9wbbH38BbG5P8Ki_boNx9DLUYUkTjiyHHubWdJUkixhDE27T6Bn8VAqyxIlORqoMdDVniNMZeQ9fMDTFyZ5TNUzyV4SWl70DndcqZFes02egFU3U2_xImwUq1am-kdnZAoNp/s1600/spxew_may17.png"/></a></div> <p>Not too much to say about the Nasdaq, but Bitcoin is getting squeezed by its 200-day MA and fast approaching 50-day MA. An undercut of the 50-day MA that also reverses the breakout might be a reason to go short. Technicals remain mostly bullish but you can see the bullish momentum (stochastics) fade in strength.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuaHdmk2EtlmcKjP8mue0Hc_v5GlfnpLsz0WBgy8lipz_76OEmW2mvjyoMvUA0heqqUKWxYuB2fbGe16cXoXkV4bzp8Z0Q6y55q6ikS5f2zNRpQ9vezHBPH1oc0Ou_RJl88d8YEZYNLJJ0P3t0X_nRieJJrRtSVqu2XMuR2EzTHZpBhMzLgLUk/s1600/btcusd_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuaHdmk2EtlmcKjP8mue0Hc_v5GlfnpLsz0WBgy8lipz_76OEmW2mvjyoMvUA0heqqUKWxYuB2fbGe16cXoXkV4bzp8Z0Q6y55q6ikS5f2zNRpQ9vezHBPH1oc0Ou_RJl88d8YEZYNLJJ0P3t0X_nRieJJrRtSVqu2XMuR2EzTHZpBhMzLgLUk/s1600/btcusd_may17.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrial Average finished on 20-day MA support, but an open belos this moving average could offer a day-trade-short. Volume climbed to register potential distribution.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJEMIDhWE-ihGFv9QnPs7MeJauFrRgJhRF0BZfkL2MkHDIeLU7YycckczpwfYwd6gZKKv8BOY1-IHlbj1FJsvrQNwZ9sZIpv3r0oHtuWKa1iRRSUfS31sYlzF2ApDRKKz8gNhacjpVNjbNioy60_rEzKSYsNyUId_3W-f4J4sJMCuOzTDWDGBE/s1600/indu_may17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJEMIDhWE-ihGFv9QnPs7MeJauFrRgJhRF0BZfkL2MkHDIeLU7YycckczpwfYwd6gZKKv8BOY1-IHlbj1FJsvrQNwZ9sZIpv3r0oHtuWKa1iRRSUfS31sYlzF2ApDRKKz8gNhacjpVNjbNioy60_rEzKSYsNyUId_3W-f4J4sJMCuOzTDWDGBE/s1600/indu_may17.png"/></a></div> <p>Tomorrow looks like a day where we could get another day's worth of selling, but given the strength of the rally off March lows there is probably an appetite for buyers to give indices one more shot of long buying. If you want to play short then you need to be aggressive with your stops to protect the position and any profits generated, because buyers will hit indices hard when they come in.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-33946324492729074542026-05-14T22:08:17.621+01:002026-05-14T22:08:17.621+01:00<p>It's natural for an undercut test of a 200-day MA to reverse on the test, but Bitcoin has been lingering at the moving average with a higher volume accumulation gain. If you took profits, no loss, but with the successful test of the 20-day MA there may be a chance for new traders to jump in, and those with existing profits to roll it a little further.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga1lHIBWFPUncAAAVkbcbgGhaD4xdo-LLPQBTmZdtwElpqsGQWhBb1P8JkXCYIx2atEjavrOjwjh0bZo_tiCrwkZJncgJwBARKF4ql2oh13J7DXIg0Yw_jEMl4PL7pe5FtddbABWi9MIo7abK803kaHMMl71yDBombzhuqcUcNPIbLUpeOBz9L/s1600/btcusd_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga1lHIBWFPUncAAAVkbcbgGhaD4xdo-LLPQBTmZdtwElpqsGQWhBb1P8JkXCYIx2atEjavrOjwjh0bZo_tiCrwkZJncgJwBARKF4ql2oh13J7DXIg0Yw_jEMl4PL7pe5FtddbABWi9MIo7abK803kaHMMl71yDBombzhuqcUcNPIbLUpeOBz9L/s1600/btcusd_may14.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>An index looking ready to break higher is the equal-weighted S&P. The 'bull flag' broke higher to a second test of the 8,300 in a matter of weeks, and a third test overall. Three tests is usually enough to deliver a breakout, and today's modest white candlestick from the 20-day MA is looking like a bullish play in the making. There is a weak 'sell' MACD sell, as other technicals are positive.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIs7udOlbWCMbpPYeGzB0-pT6DfLJuF_mqLWkW-xloA3QTbD1wMvsyYZ7qVx6_p9YhQNevBVbWXPzG0jGM17iiQAea_gHp1gKCOIdXs0-CpjueWRphOtPuLwo_tuvlN1E9NZqk04k3fCCn1m14GbZQqH6XYpqByNOziK1Px7W8kFHohlLmX2xc/s1600/spxew_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIs7udOlbWCMbpPYeGzB0-pT6DfLJuF_mqLWkW-xloA3QTbD1wMvsyYZ7qVx6_p9YhQNevBVbWXPzG0jGM17iiQAea_gHp1gKCOIdXs0-CpjueWRphOtPuLwo_tuvlN1E9NZqk04k3fCCn1m14GbZQqH6XYpqByNOziK1Px7W8kFHohlLmX2xc/s1600/spxew_may14.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is fast approaching its latest measured move target.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjex2gTi42DfmTXUo9_G47WD9df8_V-xkgK5SZVMVG1dK8tbBhiY1mqy93WpFkwmgjYKEE8hoVAOR3NaovKpsS0XFfUVauB8_SQdxrUNj5yeW-rEGTGt-P0X_tgZvy20Och0NaFPxrQoQPhT6ZAPAWdUhUuqp2ao9Am5APzsUaz_s6rVrw9U_xn/s1600/compq_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjex2gTi42DfmTXUo9_G47WD9df8_V-xkgK5SZVMVG1dK8tbBhiY1mqy93WpFkwmgjYKEE8hoVAOR3NaovKpsS0XFfUVauB8_SQdxrUNj5yeW-rEGTGt-P0X_tgZvy20Och0NaFPxrQoQPhT6ZAPAWdUhUuqp2ao9Am5APzsUaz_s6rVrw9U_xn/s1600/compq_may14.png"/></a></div> <p>But Nasdaq metrics are slowly rolling over. The Nassdaq Summation Index is a reliable reversal marker, and this is signalling a top.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg_mr5LgNv1vmXcE4o3XUIqvhmHbph7gmyOW1x6i6LDuqZiB2p1zdrwIJZZcOpPrOkr9h2ZBCAjOw7kK0f9Qbf9P4SI-lz-PSZpjSF3NCtC-uWIJ2ayjFzSc-qzdmHDy7TMRCc7cLfeIcrlQL9hIzyUOCHnogj2TQDvN1TrT296TgzovSxznQJ/s1600/nasi_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg_mr5LgNv1vmXcE4o3XUIqvhmHbph7gmyOW1x6i6LDuqZiB2p1zdrwIJZZcOpPrOkr9h2ZBCAjOw7kK0f9Qbf9P4SI-lz-PSZpjSF3NCtC-uWIJ2ayjFzSc-qzdmHDy7TMRCc7cLfeIcrlQL9hIzyUOCHnogj2TQDvN1TrT296TgzovSxznQJ/s1600/nasi_may14.png"/></a></div> <p>Nasdaq bullish percents are rolling over too, but are not overbought.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbPYwqQ-PuRAn046NefpD297gVAUxIvp-btVwKOafjh4-KnQkKYr_S81SoY5lfHCxtWywpMs1w_1sQLyMs6XoKcUMGKSllgegRooenQMZ4TV3EPE9yf-4YgKiLHOJ7eOmRNQZw4pXOKIA_faV1ZEuNlFhDz_RqN6d5ruhKkeBkkPETorETpF6U/s1600/bpcompq_may15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbPYwqQ-PuRAn046NefpD297gVAUxIvp-btVwKOafjh4-KnQkKYr_S81SoY5lfHCxtWywpMs1w_1sQLyMs6XoKcUMGKSllgegRooenQMZ4TV3EPE9yf-4YgKiLHOJ7eOmRNQZw4pXOKIA_faV1ZEuNlFhDz_RqN6d5ruhKkeBkkPETorETpF6U/s1600/bpcompq_may15.png"/></a></div> <p>However, the equal weighted Nasdaq 100 is pressuring resistance and is set for a breakout. Today registered as an accumulation day. So while Nasdaq breadth metrics are signalling a possible top, the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 is only at the start of a possible bull market breakout.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgDDSAgvrtIeTVdDv_knvhxc8N9oCCpMrjzcrsj68imOxLSQESZHeNdNLHIEryTPaRCaW_t7NitARLohYEz3hm3XktXtmW1tG9AZWMHo6A8mcLZQo6geji8-OeyEql_I8OAT8E-b7Lo3l92pVY4flJ72yzikjh6ggBpY2WC5N7wbCJK9H6kOTT/s1600/qqew_may15.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgDDSAgvrtIeTVdDv_knvhxc8N9oCCpMrjzcrsj68imOxLSQESZHeNdNLHIEryTPaRCaW_t7NitARLohYEz3hm3XktXtmW1tG9AZWMHo6A8mcLZQo6geji8-OeyEql_I8OAT8E-b7Lo3l92pVY4flJ72yzikjh6ggBpY2WC5N7wbCJK9H6kOTT/s1600/qqew_may15.png"/></a></div> <p>Finally, the Dow Industrial Average is pressuring resistance on mixed technicals. On-Balance-Volume is turning higher on confirmed accumulation, backed by strong momentum. Only the MACD is indecisive.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWsO-_poLCsCOvtgm-JTmYC-UaMoi2oLEU7bAfo8-8ZXSL_Ld08ukxdSIA6alSoNRq5BGouNu4B6n6Rqmxvsqr-vfj1D-H-CdxkS9iz_6rMjvplouWUztamQl2EkT2jz8KszVLV-mFY0xf8RsPSvak7ferCSypWA5uA6-B1HuyisnONDF3mNca/s1600/indu_may14.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWsO-_poLCsCOvtgm-JTmYC-UaMoi2oLEU7bAfo8-8ZXSL_Ld08ukxdSIA6alSoNRq5BGouNu4B6n6Rqmxvsqr-vfj1D-H-CdxkS9iz_6rMjvplouWUztamQl2EkT2jz8KszVLV-mFY0xf8RsPSvak7ferCSypWA5uA6-B1HuyisnONDF3mNca/s1600/indu_may14.png"/></a></div> <p>We still have bullish setups to take advantage of, despite the late stage of rallies off lows. Trading volume has been trending higher since April lows and remains in confirmed accumulation. Until we see a shift towards distribution, there is no immediate need to be a seller, although profit taking never hurt.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-85557391404267957342026-05-12T22:38:37.312+01:002026-05-12T22:38:37.312+01:00<p>Semiconductor stocks are hogging all the limelight with their Y2K sized gains, but there is quiet strength in other indices with the foundation for more.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 eptimizes this best after breaking from it narrow handle it has managed a successful test of that handle - now support - with a combined test of its 20-day MA, topped off with a 'bullish hammer'. Technicals are net positive, although the MACD is about to trigger a weak 'sell' trigger. If there is a negative, it's that since the breakout, the heavier volume trading days have favored distribution, but the nature of the trend is still positive.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzzpl-CyFlnkKWndgZYrn_iJfmqMWLCheAwzanED2yUAYyNuhG7TIgukh0im4akZ_TuR18Ac4f3_pH8veASfsZzMJ80CR7lJC_XQECw5Hb6jwsbH3eeP1M-M0iekJpybXb9qVxmtuYPffDb7qPXXzU6xvxnKUK4Wz5lWSUGXgTYZZ5NEOhb8G8/s1600/iwm_may12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzzpl-CyFlnkKWndgZYrn_iJfmqMWLCheAwzanED2yUAYyNuhG7TIgukh0im4akZ_TuR18Ac4f3_pH8veASfsZzMJ80CR7lJC_XQECw5Hb6jwsbH3eeP1M-M0iekJpybXb9qVxmtuYPffDb7qPXXzU6xvxnKUK4Wz5lWSUGXgTYZZ5NEOhb8G8/s1600/iwm_may12.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 has the potential to follow the lead of the S&P, that had a similar 'handle' breakout, and is on course to reach its measured move target following the break of 7K. Here, the heavier volume days have gone with bulls and rank as accumulation days. Although even here, we can see a vast underperformance relative to the Nasdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmZ1bq78jKJEYNyf8smEakzlp3Y3IT4wYaXK2Tlg3obRYvg5L6tMGdcRFr0sNM3M8xNnk-P_2ALFz1zyI1LJVuU1YQ6sBv1eHvp4uKox1Wt16wJs2jTCQcWes4bkujfg8xE9hL4nbaZHP6KVfIR5rO7hFhjJYEJpGeTSb1vPyt-FTgnqqgMJ0q/s1600/spx_may12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmZ1bq78jKJEYNyf8smEakzlp3Y3IT4wYaXK2Tlg3obRYvg5L6tMGdcRFr0sNM3M8xNnk-P_2ALFz1zyI1LJVuU1YQ6sBv1eHvp4uKox1Wt16wJs2jTCQcWes4bkujfg8xE9hL4nbaZHP6KVfIR5rO7hFhjJYEJpGeTSb1vPyt-FTgnqqgMJ0q/s1600/spx_may12.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq has been on the rip since undercutting its 200-day MA. It's currently 14% above its 200-day MA, that puts it in the 15% zone of historic price extremes dating back to 1971. The index last reached the 10% zone in July 2024, which interestingly enough, marks the starting point for the resistance channel in the index; buyer beware. A good time to take profits (although in itself, didn't mark the end of the rally).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg33INGlw1Q0tp2rXl01I2t6-Ih7KBogSgIMXeKdo3-sshf2KMI4yJ2vQHuxfgdCiD5LUx194QmRTioEeATbdr-S6csRwK11IK6KUNv3mlEkBgKc4xWG1AbVvjWssEEd-sK-dDDiIQBLNwppLfZ40yP7gIyiNtxrG0e1egnJH6Mc1miRmT2sEQP/s1600/compq_may12w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg33INGlw1Q0tp2rXl01I2t6-Ih7KBogSgIMXeKdo3-sshf2KMI4yJ2vQHuxfgdCiD5LUx194QmRTioEeATbdr-S6csRwK11IK6KUNv3mlEkBgKc4xWG1AbVvjWssEEd-sK-dDDiIQBLNwppLfZ40yP7gIyiNtxrG0e1egnJH6Mc1miRmT2sEQP/s1600/compq_may12w.png"/></a></div> <p>Where things get a little more interesting is in the equal-weighted averages. The equal-weighted S&P has been spiking both high and low with the 20-day MA offering support, but the February high proving to be stubborn resistance. If this doesn't break higher soon we will see a squeezed short play as traders get trapped on a flush lower.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYlCaIvhJ-jbTJHj5jcdnrocTDd1ZQYX6_erv9qhvmycZwjcH8iJryqnzhLIqUygAS0kk1o90xWagWNjRDxGH-7CQTLmDJztIrzAVREPVhtDtIgg6V4DIQWu4NDuZdsvKcK6uUiG2Bo9DeQC3imokpOx24FrSSw9ANixE9v0mSMCA0iZPTN1f/s1600/spxew_may12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYlCaIvhJ-jbTJHj5jcdnrocTDd1ZQYX6_erv9qhvmycZwjcH8iJryqnzhLIqUygAS0kk1o90xWagWNjRDxGH-7CQTLmDJztIrzAVREPVhtDtIgg6V4DIQWu4NDuZdsvKcK6uUiG2Bo9DeQC3imokpOx24FrSSw9ANixE9v0mSMCA0iZPTN1f/s1600/spxew_may12.png"/></a></div> <p>Likewise, the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 has made it to January high resistance and is consolidating a little before an eventual(?) breakout. Technicals are more bullish than for the equal-weighted S&P, but it's lagging a long way behind the Nasdaq itself.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwOMRNJYzHHGe0WG8PyUdyi4lPJKd1lexEpA75921LCZ-hygtMgbq4wbS-gFb82aGSV-sEL6GgWpGnoVCcsojBo7SIksz1_TLbKN86gZ3E6FnxYGzUjR22iqvMUVmH2ntoalEq3YHX25qdJDcyP6xBUmiEU8r6BeE82MVGQkm6hbS1RMJ_988a/s1600/qqew_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwOMRNJYzHHGe0WG8PyUdyi4lPJKd1lexEpA75921LCZ-hygtMgbq4wbS-gFb82aGSV-sEL6GgWpGnoVCcsojBo7SIksz1_TLbKN86gZ3E6FnxYGzUjR22iqvMUVmH2ntoalEq3YHX25qdJDcyP6xBUmiEU8r6BeE82MVGQkm6hbS1RMJ_988a/s1600/qqew_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow is also trading below Jan/Feb highs as trading volumes side with bulls, but technicals are mixed. In the broader context of the market, it features little, but what it does matters. If it breaks higher, it will point to broader strength, irrespective as to what comes next for Semiconductors.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpL57Rg9quf0Z3011YrMo0bWT_V7F43kJoPnMRPmM6wY25EWZ46MWnM6g2xIpEOy0nNzO3GQNympOJ1i35ch0ofpV4DB-nnjlwm-ihoGmWUuZkE-ZvNZcmkf7FW2X1hWt81IgSIjykbBcYtI9QLbhgCmUoS8tm4FdNY4ETHXg2eiyvNpxUsXQJ/s1600/indu_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpL57Rg9quf0Z3011YrMo0bWT_V7F43kJoPnMRPmM6wY25EWZ46MWnM6g2xIpEOy0nNzO3GQNympOJ1i35ch0ofpV4DB-nnjlwm-ihoGmWUuZkE-ZvNZcmkf7FW2X1hWt81IgSIjykbBcYtI9QLbhgCmUoS8tm4FdNY4ETHXg2eiyvNpxUsXQJ/s1600/indu_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>My reliable call has been Bitcoin. It's now at its profit target of its 200-day MA. It may go higher, but now would be a good time to take some profits and let the rest ride; how much will depend on your risk tolerance.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIxJfRk_MWzzi5CHTctdESpZQDFiAHBSQS_1oyMQY6vVFJCYeAD6GCFaQ6BXdhgSPcMFkRWo7TiL19u9jpxJTx5pyXaxC53Grn2k9uEvmIrforgjDHgsuFVXiqv_FMYHfaFQMdc-CvEAD09U_NWkO_naPvb2c8YugrDLm0M7LcnR-zZj0wP_yS/s1600/btcusd_may12.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIxJfRk_MWzzi5CHTctdESpZQDFiAHBSQS_1oyMQY6vVFJCYeAD6GCFaQ6BXdhgSPcMFkRWo7TiL19u9jpxJTx5pyXaxC53Grn2k9uEvmIrforgjDHgsuFVXiqv_FMYHfaFQMdc-CvEAD09U_NWkO_naPvb2c8YugrDLm0M7LcnR-zZj0wP_yS/s1600/btcusd_may12.png"/></a></div> <p>Lots to play for this week. I would expect a sharp correction in tech soon, but there is nothing to suggest this would be a crash. Other sectors, aside from defensive consumer stocks, are doing well, so we will see despite the instability in global affairs - the impacts of which have been swept under the rug by the media (food supply later this year - not oil - is the going to be the big one).</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-75994381465915456302026-05-07T23:03:50.132+01:002026-05-07T23:03:50.132+01:00<p>It was a bit of a mixed day for indices as the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 bucked the trend of other indices and posted strong gains. Remaining indices suffered profit gains as sellers made a long awaited appearance.</p> <p>It was odd to see the equal wieghted Nasdaq 100 makes such a clean move, tagging resistance in the process. Technicals - including relative performance - are firmly in the bullish camp, although it has yet to break to new 2026 highs, which if it was to follow the Semiconductor Index, would mean big gains lie ahead for the index.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3GCWOlQMZFV4V5GIydLDKxtUuLSwmqZ2CDS4nr2X0XIo-ycf5en_yONJWNCuEWMakXQv8Yp4libKcU8oA8Wp6ODBdw2DQf-DkDgSSCEN9wkrMqO2ZOSGl0ewAYV_3Yx7hLRz8IxF-wui_Kc7voPtRXsXmReUfuy-dbxRLGnrAK9zmxoVpDgfe/s1600/QQEW_may7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3GCWOlQMZFV4V5GIydLDKxtUuLSwmqZ2CDS4nr2X0XIo-ycf5en_yONJWNCuEWMakXQv8Yp4libKcU8oA8Wp6ODBdw2DQf-DkDgSSCEN9wkrMqO2ZOSGl0ewAYV_3Yx7hLRz8IxF-wui_Kc7voPtRXsXmReUfuy-dbxRLGnrAK9zmxoVpDgfe/s1600/QQEW_may7.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P tagged resistance yesterday, but came back off that resistance in typical selling. Technicals are net bullish, although it's sharply underperforming the weighted S&P.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFiV9CyRIM5OEUCsMmCjsagBjAWHN7ihIzNcaL8QqqdQgKXiReFLVsf2V1iC5DhbDM1NLh1yu0lGhPvXPZLdD40e4mPxW3-oK2sFfpXVmdhVxuQrY5bp3N0wWTDS5Mz1ceIbL7pbyAGp4lGJ8reNQe0jx4nKv0Y3EKrjBpiHE8B3g1KIbRz5P8/s1600/spxew_may7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFiV9CyRIM5OEUCsMmCjsagBjAWHN7ihIzNcaL8QqqdQgKXiReFLVsf2V1iC5DhbDM1NLh1yu0lGhPvXPZLdD40e4mPxW3-oK2sFfpXVmdhVxuQrY5bp3N0wWTDS5Mz1ceIbL7pbyAGp4lGJ8reNQe0jx4nKv0Y3EKrjBpiHE8B3g1KIbRz5P8/s1600/spxew_may7.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The weighted S&P took a modest loss as I look for a new measured move target higher. Technicals are net bullish and buying volume has been outperforming selling volume.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggRKBCtaDB8p_i6_YNWBVCl-Z57NMNqxxxGdha4X-8rBN7KSKMR_jjjwLPOIzq417f9YVKrt7-no3iXNNzYZa_WmzyuunuTO5LACKWuduCqBfBa-hb7_XOQ10WSjCKUtsh4uFBYpmPpXD215yD-6ZwpA71u7ozDPzgYgkPOqjwyJUHDCX7waa2/s1600/spx_may7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggRKBCtaDB8p_i6_YNWBVCl-Z57NMNqxxxGdha4X-8rBN7KSKMR_jjjwLPOIzq417f9YVKrt7-no3iXNNzYZa_WmzyuunuTO5LACKWuduCqBfBa-hb7_XOQ10WSjCKUtsh4uFBYpmPpXD215yD-6ZwpA71u7ozDPzgYgkPOqjwyJUHDCX7waa2/s1600/spx_may7.png"/></a></div> <p>I have measured move target also drawn in for the Nasdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaBMjbFbeIBmevucnKdHCOpqUSvNmPIZ5VxuTsl_q6bVd9SH5PdvM6T9jua5gPeP1S-0gJ4ryaXHfB_Fv-narXh4h6whyphenhyphenZMJx0aHZsCjY7-JDwmapT9in8nfcBBbvk51LRMY0fTOn2OmOFRaka8vCy9pLTlHGYcC75YnldzRkiIDF647DNb9MD/s1600/nas_may7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaBMjbFbeIBmevucnKdHCOpqUSvNmPIZ5VxuTsl_q6bVd9SH5PdvM6T9jua5gPeP1S-0gJ4ryaXHfB_Fv-narXh4h6whyphenhyphenZMJx0aHZsCjY7-JDwmapT9in8nfcBBbvk51LRMY0fTOn2OmOFRaka8vCy9pLTlHGYcC75YnldzRkiIDF647DNb9MD/s1600/nas_may7.png"/></a></div> <p>While Bitcoin didn't fully make it to its 200-day MA, it did experience a day of selling off yesterday's inverse hammer. Aside from that, technicals are net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCoS7QjSc5anUkcZQAzFjcDL1kVCJC33tnQ8lrOLsgsxEVlerHp8DTijS3hMF2sFf2qJ3T5-thBpsPgDfYHT4WxJ77tobkqZ4eX6JycZOSIxYG52Hq848ZlrnxRVGOSzaEJzgs1LO1RlReRpgFmkCIL-dU0niLEY2eVrRRAk2inlYOTDghjy_q/s1600/btcusd_may7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCoS7QjSc5anUkcZQAzFjcDL1kVCJC33tnQ8lrOLsgsxEVlerHp8DTijS3hMF2sFf2qJ3T5-thBpsPgDfYHT4WxJ77tobkqZ4eX6JycZOSIxYG52Hq848ZlrnxRVGOSzaEJzgs1LO1RlReRpgFmkCIL-dU0niLEY2eVrRRAk2inlYOTDghjy_q/s1600/btcusd_may7.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrial Average also tagged resistance, but technicals are not as bullish as peer indices as On-Balance-Volume is working off a 'sell' trigger.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV7Bba9h0CDPQi9juCATU2A4VWL50_3pUcM8RUMM_QGCIzy7VGPNvPhbd_CV8jRt1uufkAH7UgRkxiCpcIZJtMYTB1mlXMfUQkliUm4_qv4P7vQHQ2WxMOwbdKGLbJNC6et4Hu7cYn4hzgWdfdDrkCsHRnGE0NRzgCfST6R3y2SDDlRE0o67Xr/s1600/indu_may7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV7Bba9h0CDPQi9juCATU2A4VWL50_3pUcM8RUMM_QGCIzy7VGPNvPhbd_CV8jRt1uufkAH7UgRkxiCpcIZJtMYTB1mlXMfUQkliUm4_qv4P7vQHQ2WxMOwbdKGLbJNC6et4Hu7cYn4hzgWdfdDrkCsHRnGE0NRzgCfST6R3y2SDDlRE0o67Xr/s1600/indu_may7.png"/></a></div> <p>There isn't much to say about today's action. Selling was expected. Selling at resistance is no surprise. If any of the indices testing resistance ($DJIA, $SPXEW) were to break resistance, they would offer a solid breakout play. As for indices that have already managed this, look to measured move targets.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-8096504295444645852026-05-05T23:21:30.140+01:002026-05-05T23:21:30.140+01:00<p>It was a good day for the Russell 2000 as yesterday's indecision was negated by a respectable day of buying. Technicals are net bullish, but today's volume was a little disappointing given new all-time highs.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpNsKel2R-v51zSiugfY_Tf3xQsHgcDN5BN9do1fV_OA9n-LlgxR5BxZ-wVPaAxZChbW3Dgu8slpYuksqC6ALvaTSlf4jdr2QLZFONClgNeccsK3ic6Qkur_ITu_N_dQEH9eMD3SWpIRZQBg-jEKAMKoyt-EocRInohNl2Pq49Hw5y9usrwFgX/s1600/iwm_may5b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpNsKel2R-v51zSiugfY_Tf3xQsHgcDN5BN9do1fV_OA9n-LlgxR5BxZ-wVPaAxZChbW3Dgu8slpYuksqC6ALvaTSlf4jdr2QLZFONClgNeccsK3ic6Qkur_ITu_N_dQEH9eMD3SWpIRZQBg-jEKAMKoyt-EocRInohNl2Pq49Hw5y9usrwFgX/s1600/iwm_may5b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Better was the S&P, in that it registered an accumulation day with a new closing high. There could be a good day trade if tomorrow starts with a gap high, forcing shorts to cover (although there is unlikely to be many), but no overhead resistance.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHQgALmQbYbztfT7gVA9AEgXvlNn11WyCwE7NZ8rsh33euXLRIdSXlA07x5ddhrRVc0UatHAGzf3vy_P9w8Zskha-5gC9y_yyw9Ej6Zb5Zu0fbobJaFoshPq34PXeTQWoatjhr3oCY1xGAn3nFsG_A0K9mgGT2wdTxy9uMSvPnJqz9ukg4IS5I/s1600/spx_may5b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHQgALmQbYbztfT7gVA9AEgXvlNn11WyCwE7NZ8rsh33euXLRIdSXlA07x5ddhrRVc0UatHAGzf3vy_P9w8Zskha-5gC9y_yyw9Ej6Zb5Zu0fbobJaFoshPq34PXeTQWoatjhr3oCY1xGAn3nFsG_A0K9mgGT2wdTxy9uMSvPnJqz9ukg4IS5I/s1600/spx_may5b.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P bounced off 'bull flag' support and will again be challenging February highs after the last failed test in early April. I expect this test to succeed in breaking higher (why? because triple tops are rare).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi62rC83bd65JMcp8ZZIw4XhhaMcxId7_n1dGeNQWu_Z3rVoGCA6FbA01FikHig3qstNVm7jWU-S38jXEyFMURSjhR_YlnW_o-RUYv4BSFhUvFYf4V2uAuL65A4nmHYWhu64qqa-ceQ5m2X007O4RbiaHpW0eRKeeJTz1jocccMqr9ZB6HS7lnL/s1600/SPXEW_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi62rC83bd65JMcp8ZZIw4XhhaMcxId7_n1dGeNQWu_Z3rVoGCA6FbA01FikHig3qstNVm7jWU-S38jXEyFMURSjhR_YlnW_o-RUYv4BSFhUvFYf4V2uAuL65A4nmHYWhu64qqa-ceQ5m2X007O4RbiaHpW0eRKeeJTz1jocccMqr9ZB6HS7lnL/s1600/SPXEW_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is taking baby steps higher and volume has been reasonable, but hardly spectacular - which is probably a good thing.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN2QdA6Ebtyn4F9y5YM3SQCxYwKbej6Tm5iE7qAu9Qp8vr5UTJNzWVuAd26DlipsbyJvHQ0XSg3hJrCkPBqWgJQ0B4xaIMNL_4GH9CXuJ1uN7yr_GoTSpSZ6Mj-tC51iqhilwC76D3fpIAarQoQCNeOYx9GgJzmg6ghrmRyFyQIDz1-P20Vqim/s1600/compq_may5b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN2QdA6Ebtyn4F9y5YM3SQCxYwKbej6Tm5iE7qAu9Qp8vr5UTJNzWVuAd26DlipsbyJvHQ0XSg3hJrCkPBqWgJQ0B4xaIMNL_4GH9CXuJ1uN7yr_GoTSpSZ6Mj-tC51iqhilwC76D3fpIAarQoQCNeOYx9GgJzmg6ghrmRyFyQIDz1-P20Vqim/s1600/compq_may5b.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin is very close to testing its 200-day MA, and may do so as early as tomorrow. This will likely be a profit taking opportunity, so if you are looking to ease up a little, then will be the time. If (when) it breaks through its 200-day MA, it will set up for a follow on move to January highs.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYzOg8yDQjzBDuwUbCeBcBc1Qeh1tM3ztJzXUP2eujwmM4MS1q2yUNOMrTl8PNCwfcJiMwrqWFhrks9MriLXxZ8brmQFiQW1mBnmL_J1ig5nNgcXN7l43MRC4mYABIZTTnVn7KiJ2WuaghK9jyjnFeTOEpJLNhReSU4nyNICaeTPIjVuIqE546/s1600/btcusd_may5b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYzOg8yDQjzBDuwUbCeBcBc1Qeh1tM3ztJzXUP2eujwmM4MS1q2yUNOMrTl8PNCwfcJiMwrqWFhrks9MriLXxZ8brmQFiQW1mBnmL_J1ig5nNgcXN7l43MRC4mYABIZTTnVn7KiJ2WuaghK9jyjnFeTOEpJLNhReSU4nyNICaeTPIjVuIqE546/s1600/btcusd_may5b.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have long since said goodbye to the February highs lead indices are struggling with/defending. Today saw a new breakout in the index on very strong technicals. Amazing strength for a sector that had flatlined over 10 years ago at around 500.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk97a9BO8q3bPxprNGXi47TuxdcG2JJYY7rPc8RAnRIlx2AIbFJdKOj5zEfQOCl2vlgolOc5Wgrn1DOiRLV80Wi5h0Syqx9YqcP1zwD9TfdTJaIjHXbnRwVPRkouPoC_kwo6Lflw8SFrJGSAUaFnyvGodQuq8Z0fbd0RVWwv1Gl4W05oDRIfpC/s1600/sox_may5c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk97a9BO8q3bPxprNGXi47TuxdcG2JJYY7rPc8RAnRIlx2AIbFJdKOj5zEfQOCl2vlgolOc5Wgrn1DOiRLV80Wi5h0Syqx9YqcP1zwD9TfdTJaIjHXbnRwVPRkouPoC_kwo6Lflw8SFrJGSAUaFnyvGodQuq8Z0fbd0RVWwv1Gl4W05oDRIfpC/s1600/sox_may5c.png"/></a></div> <p>Aside from profit-taking for needs, there is little reason to be out of the market at this time, unless you are on the sidelines - in which case, there is a risk. For the record, the Russell 2000 is trading 14% above its 200-day MA that places it in the 10% zone of historic action. I don't have data on it, but the Semiconductor Index is running 51%(!) above its 200-day MA; although it was only 10% above at the end of March.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script>th window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-20016481328029031402026-05-04T00:05:42.943+01:002026-05-04T00:05:42.944+01:00<p>Lead indices had a good end-of-week finish that registered fresh breakouts. The slingshot index could be the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It traded a nice handle before it broke lower in what looked to be a pending test of its 20-day MA. But instead of that, it reversed and has now broken to the upside. We are looking for a potential measured move target of 320(ish). </p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3c2OSyG20zKEzHli654AIKIAEqh1KMVWc0wh4xa0v3JTDYbgAg0TU2E94g5AtPxndckchZthijTneaYmBs-OF-hNTVWGh48BQ-I7TlYMBUpvbA1efs5ZIbPA7YmVYBaVU6pr_zCswn8ObI7UPm0nV5M2rW_56iqKIihNeay9OWHYqS1ZcFHeq/s1600/iwm_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3c2OSyG20zKEzHli654AIKIAEqh1KMVWc0wh4xa0v3JTDYbgAg0TU2E94g5AtPxndckchZthijTneaYmBs-OF-hNTVWGh48BQ-I7TlYMBUpvbA1efs5ZIbPA7YmVYBaVU6pr_zCswn8ObI7UPm0nV5M2rW_56iqKIihNeay9OWHYqS1ZcFHeq/s1600/iwm_may5.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P has been reaching its target goals like a kickstarter project. It finished Friday on a potential gravestone doji - a reversal candlestick. It had posted a higher day accumulation the day before, and the move out of its smaller handle has only begun, so it may be a little early to be heading lower, but we need to be aware of the possibility. Technicals are net bullish, although the index is sharply underperforming the Nassdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2kDWCha0Zc-GtZXhVI8rljSHPWrK34GK915jPI-tjAx-HLjtmnLr15sRy75M4v6-UUy2zzZOXKKfMG3156_1jiHvPcyozxwtG6rxDcs7YnO9lK3v_u2e4AY6VG-R7eE6IteXbz-_Vv0lldp0T33FFNnI1xpRL_IoTxSFfHh1D37TAQpsJneIQ/s1600/spx_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2kDWCha0Zc-GtZXhVI8rljSHPWrK34GK915jPI-tjAx-HLjtmnLr15sRy75M4v6-UUy2zzZOXKKfMG3156_1jiHvPcyozxwtG6rxDcs7YnO9lK3v_u2e4AY6VG-R7eE6IteXbz-_Vv0lldp0T33FFNnI1xpRL_IoTxSFfHh1D37TAQpsJneIQ/s1600/spx_may5.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal weighted S&P reflects this a little differently. Thursday delived the 'bull flag' breakout, but the selling on Friday led to another failed test to break resistance. If you want a short play, this is the one to target with a stop on a move above 8,300.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1bWwpxyo5YZBXsZns6EygX3CNwvT7O7HugbKjqTXnOJFJIaaj1jeqv9SVM-pPxxgtuVIt9v3BzopprZtTGJt7t0GLwCkIAIwvPzQhkDnRmlJwdLQGEA8QIRnZ9nvNdGimuR6YUkiE6E50wC8gKNmg39-JnwzbkETQU5ATxwO5ThmUZD96aiXd/s1600/SPXEW_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1bWwpxyo5YZBXsZns6EygX3CNwvT7O7HugbKjqTXnOJFJIaaj1jeqv9SVM-pPxxgtuVIt9v3BzopprZtTGJt7t0GLwCkIAIwvPzQhkDnRmlJwdLQGEA8QIRnZ9nvNdGimuR6YUkiE6E50wC8gKNmg39-JnwzbkETQU5ATxwO5ThmUZD96aiXd/s1600/SPXEW_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 ($QQEW) is again above its 200-day MA after an earlier failed test. This has some nice upside and is perhaps the long trade of choice with a target of January highs around $145; stops go on a loss of $136 (although intraday violations are okay).</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdwFAulXy_rnjLjgtD2ebhtHWH6QOvzJkqLgYG7EPuPbFlABItfnf0xsci_VwNrtmAOMkEb6ZRnmT9s_LvlJaHIkYZfZB03ndI2isQ_S258CDB4x9KitO2M_CRK49ZYsevHRG_kgRk8QMEPu1zK9nS8n24FHtDywt3s6zijR6Cjj07rvg4lZOj/s1600/qqew_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdwFAulXy_rnjLjgtD2ebhtHWH6QOvzJkqLgYG7EPuPbFlABItfnf0xsci_VwNrtmAOMkEb6ZRnmT9s_LvlJaHIkYZfZB03ndI2isQ_S258CDB4x9KitO2M_CRK49ZYsevHRG_kgRk8QMEPu1zK9nS8n24FHtDywt3s6zijR6Cjj07rvg4lZOj/s1600/qqew_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>Feeding into this is the Semiconductor Index. It's back challenging its alltime high - and the bearish cnadlesticks - at 10,564 resistance (also the measured move target). If this manages to break higher then it should help $QQEW reach its target.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnlAQ5q_YPl6HIEQtKt9EpFVV3H3KTX3Y1ZwHpmwt7-zgsEWak9ceeAbA0rE_qH22_mb7nzWc1hxzIc_c4_4KdEtXbyUWSmgTsuYCDRgnjy2kRXis5gN7KAahjZVz083dpxI2GWp5Q0enqCPoB2sVbIfv5Itx3EnVK6Fm386JLhn7DU16GXbYV/s1600/sox_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnlAQ5q_YPl6HIEQtKt9EpFVV3H3KTX3Y1ZwHpmwt7-zgsEWak9ceeAbA0rE_qH22_mb7nzWc1hxzIc_c4_4KdEtXbyUWSmgTsuYCDRgnjy2kRXis5gN7KAahjZVz083dpxI2GWp5Q0enqCPoB2sVbIfv5Itx3EnVK6Fm386JLhn7DU16GXbYV/s1600/sox_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin continues to play to bullish form with a slow-and-steady advance. The 200-day MA is fast approaching, and this will be its first big test after such an extensive decline.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGrzIdMIgIY3htM_uuN04Z3skisxJZoLRbecYipZiZiuJoQV8ouBF1-oA04MNBY6QwcskH_7-sAbefbEepdULZb5fNzqVXV_eOtDHlPU4VLOD8c5rLOibP-AW0ua9iIIDFx2cWmc-f7P_Rc43atGIzK_WTFxNRX3H_y0OQIeC3UrENxcOkyzqP/s1600/btcusd_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGrzIdMIgIY3htM_uuN04Z3skisxJZoLRbecYipZiZiuJoQV8ouBF1-oA04MNBY6QwcskH_7-sAbefbEepdULZb5fNzqVXV_eOtDHlPU4VLOD8c5rLOibP-AW0ua9iIIDFx2cWmc-f7P_Rc43atGIzK_WTFxNRX3H_y0OQIeC3UrENxcOkyzqP/s1600/btcusd_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>For the coming week, we have a number of bullish setups, with only the equal-weighted S&P index the one that might give shorts something to work with.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-71230840396159034542026-04-29T22:13:01.862+01:002026-04-29T22:13:01.862+01:00<p>There is an interesting setup coming for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) Today's action saw a move back into last week's breakout gap that registered as a breakdown from its narrow handle, BUT, retained the characteristics of the breakout by remaining above $270. In addition, we have a fast approaching 20-day MA that could provide a cue for buyers to step in. Technicals remain net bullish, although today's volume registered as distribution. While I tend to be a 'glass-half-full' person, I am leaning here towards a possible 'bear trap' that should resolve tomorrow; if we see buyers step in after the first half-hour of trading (when the likely direction for the market that day is established), then it might be worth a long play.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX1e94IQ3x0qMndqXYEcFcBdLo1cC7n2zsaZI1M6GRLQbPsbPmBhkI5kZ0DvUHoSv8YqgV3wB3wwHJli0lt2UJFMHl66uvK1lP15X0S8ZhrEdBO608XsLLBDoeUOlpCJuEFIDqCSZX-UxLJWv0V9ltKMbfzIxb07tUYDmWoAyp96nK5bO2JkZf/s1600/IWM_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX1e94IQ3x0qMndqXYEcFcBdLo1cC7n2zsaZI1M6GRLQbPsbPmBhkI5kZ0DvUHoSv8YqgV3wB3wwHJli0lt2UJFMHl66uvK1lP15X0S8ZhrEdBO608XsLLBDoeUOlpCJuEFIDqCSZX-UxLJWv0V9ltKMbfzIxb07tUYDmWoAyp96nK5bO2JkZf/s1600/IWM_apr30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The asset I have been most bullish on in recent weeks, Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), has returned to a support level. I wouldn't want it to push lower from here - and the MACD 'sell' is a little worrisome - but if sellers do continue to act, then look for buyers to come in at its 50-day MA. I still prefer the 200-day MA as the upside target, or at least a price point where significant selling can be expected.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QLxRW1mk1odNI6GNy2Z-Yh2Z0-vwcSXdc3B03eFT-ILf74F4QKwTyDTaPesbRVVguBIFtTvdrlo319eRNEkiZK_zbs8SHI0b5NMr9gzKLVx6zCKAsvc11s6cqNSDbhFigpwuupQg1sm8-p_pdnNtQUW0YfcRCjGEf5g27dviXGY5hsePB3sh/s1600/btcusd_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QLxRW1mk1odNI6GNy2Z-Yh2Z0-vwcSXdc3B03eFT-ILf74F4QKwTyDTaPesbRVVguBIFtTvdrlo319eRNEkiZK_zbs8SHI0b5NMr9gzKLVx6zCKAsvc11s6cqNSDbhFigpwuupQg1sm8-p_pdnNtQUW0YfcRCjGEf5g27dviXGY5hsePB3sh/s1600/btcusd_apr30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted S&P is running along the lower support level of a small bull 'flag'. Aggressive players could look to go long at its 20-day MA, as it's due an up day soon. An upside break from the 'bull flag' will open for a challenge of 8,300 resistance, and potentially more.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjINasEgIUX5T2AIa8hOOlVC4QEtovN13prcAQkx72XnOPdkdksx6g9BJEyI88QurK-QXcpa53UiF_DzHvtngtT5dSJmQNPA_V4WdDDgpQvzeKi7SKygl_SMsLC5fz4xeqHl0WoHpKQlP7NSZj1GIpiiJgRJCXPCQKOLTnTS_IEI3XGP-pz8Qyx/s1600/btcusd_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjINasEgIUX5T2AIa8hOOlVC4QEtovN13prcAQkx72XnOPdkdksx6g9BJEyI88QurK-QXcpa53UiF_DzHvtngtT5dSJmQNPA_V4WdDDgpQvzeKi7SKygl_SMsLC5fz4xeqHl0WoHpKQlP7NSZj1GIpiiJgRJCXPCQKOLTnTS_IEI3XGP-pz8Qyx/s1600/btcusd_apr30.png"/></a></div> <p>The weighted S&P did very little, but given the small handle its shaping, things are looking nicely (if low key) bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cjSu7dZCke4a559pdp4W7zBTPDik6JVzUAWekTMTGELpdPYT_9WP0Jq2nTIrjDQCSLZSocxtGNxOoU84KMjDgyM8ygqMliJK31GlmXmgiR8LD8TnEqPLdPZw3xb0eqB9Cx4hXtOMHer2y0FcVAiaBTknxoJJc6CfVerbRPamG7aen-2qzpya/s1600/spx_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cjSu7dZCke4a559pdp4W7zBTPDik6JVzUAWekTMTGELpdPYT_9WP0Jq2nTIrjDQCSLZSocxtGNxOoU84KMjDgyM8ygqMliJK31GlmXmgiR8LD8TnEqPLdPZw3xb0eqB9Cx4hXtOMHer2y0FcVAiaBTknxoJJc6CfVerbRPamG7aen-2qzpya/s1600/spx_apr30.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrial Average is also drifting lower and is on course to test its 20-day MA. It has yet to challenge 50K after its initial tag in February, as the index fails to generate the same level of interest as the S&P and Nasdaq, and this is a little disappointing.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6Hauf6MCqiezn5TV_3uK3PunlYXfym5YUn3d8niMNSnCVe4XqSinKFEcyh2xW55AaLpZqkbgh516C62FmQwCGHzg0nNZMVR0EvGMFz3OROyU3tPuzRFiK2OWpMjNt0kbaCXhJ6QTQyaGP7kM97POgliJf3jlfhQO5tDx2T7YGBLDftz66Ij3e/s1600/indu_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6Hauf6MCqiezn5TV_3uK3PunlYXfym5YUn3d8niMNSnCVe4XqSinKFEcyh2xW55AaLpZqkbgh516C62FmQwCGHzg0nNZMVR0EvGMFz3OROyU3tPuzRFiK2OWpMjNt0kbaCXhJ6QTQyaGP7kM97POgliJf3jlfhQO5tDx2T7YGBLDftz66Ij3e/s1600/indu_apr30.png"/></a></div> <p>The other index to watch is the Semiconductor Index. We got a ping at the second measured move target before prices were rebuffed. It's strongly bullish, but it needs more of a pullback than what we have seen so far.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik76WpYXPijNa_HDYXup9K8erYlRXW-8C__0hvJtWWry3l6kYSMDL6CLv0jgwwg3hS0hLdxUkKXZkEJ6_vLNCMkB-yHHyViZ9vMaWPVAIkZ4hzyTY-5AHQse0tARCb8YfI9tr5V7a6TKJHm-edDiIYWmLv13LA_z6EjBUfrfiM65OlY3Bh_RQx/s1600/sox_apr30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik76WpYXPijNa_HDYXup9K8erYlRXW-8C__0hvJtWWry3l6kYSMDL6CLv0jgwwg3hS0hLdxUkKXZkEJ6_vLNCMkB-yHHyViZ9vMaWPVAIkZ4hzyTY-5AHQse0tARCb8YfI9tr5V7a6TKJHm-edDiIYWmLv13LA_z6EjBUfrfiM65OlY3Bh_RQx/s1600/sox_apr30.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, focus on the Russell 2000, a "bear trap" looks the favored option, but if things start bad and stay bad, then it's easy to step away.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-2296851548354468672026-04-27T22:23:29.337+01:002026-04-27T22:56:17.937+01:00<p>Nothing really to add from the weekend, but the one chart that is leaving me confused is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Consumer sentiment is in the toilet, really in the toilet - no surprise really given tariffs and general Administration f*ckisms - but the market has been pushing new highs rather than pivoting to new lows as has happened in the past.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The two big declines in consumer sentiment because of y2k and Covid had two very different market responses; y2K ended in new lows in March 2009, while the current decline has delivered new highs. What this means for the next rally will be interesting. On the optimistic front, every recovery in consumer sentiment has enjoyed solid gains in the market. </p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTE-HY_JMSwHUceNJ9zWjScWU-hfOvJF8MgVP-pY1cG9PG8eaRTg12_lg0Zcka4P4K108YrHOxYf1C7qtN3XAvEcgl03THcxalk-57R-Q2U_zPcWkWxmR1CbHkXU45LzNTQKAWBPVMeFpjyHQt8rdYoxvpGva3pRcc0Zn4f2ZUiFFZzFwpt0Jg/s1240/mich_apr27.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="600" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTE-HY_JMSwHUceNJ9zWjScWU-hfOvJF8MgVP-pY1cG9PG8eaRTg12_lg0Zcka4P4K108YrHOxYf1C7qtN3XAvEcgl03THcxalk-57R-Q2U_zPcWkWxmR1CbHkXU45LzNTQKAWBPVMeFpjyHQt8rdYoxvpGva3pRcc0Zn4f2ZUiFFZzFwpt0Jg/s600/mich_apr27.png"/></a></div> <p>What this next means for Consumer Sentiment and markets is up for grabs. Unemployment is on the steady rise and this will likely be accelerated by AI related job losses, that in itself, could deliver new market highs. But it's hard to see a happy ending when we reach a tipping point between falling consumers and higher company profits. It will be an odd mix and one that will play out over the coming years, not months or weeks. </p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-5833497691669459362026-04-26T21:52:40.556+01:002026-04-26T21:52:56.560+01:00<p>Indices continued to post gains but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains in the process of consolidation. The index is shaping a bullish handle which offers a nice risk:reward play for those looking to play the break. Volume has been light across the pattern and well below that of the March capitulation, and below even that of the early year advance.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnMYa9_Vu5quAnMv-F1ZWEGyA7kq45j1rg8_an881y9uJFTFqkzaEwLmaLMYh1G75c4fWYUTzmDco0oHVQ5f8IAHAOMXaY0vv_0Eh1-PRQXslTgFOrtrImjnFyptkjIg-gN3pv2K4t67U8QPgluzgA4egvL3OX42ksbzkUjJBIs2vl0-DJ9fZx/s1600/IWM_Apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnMYa9_Vu5quAnMv-F1ZWEGyA7kq45j1rg8_an881y9uJFTFqkzaEwLmaLMYh1G75c4fWYUTzmDco0oHVQ5f8IAHAOMXaY0vv_0Eh1-PRQXslTgFOrtrImjnFyptkjIg-gN3pv2K4t67U8QPgluzgA4egvL3OX42ksbzkUjJBIs2vl0-DJ9fZx/s1600/IWM_Apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P is attempting a 'bull flag', although it's a little scrappy. Technicals are net bullish but its underperforming relative to its weighted average and this weakness is expanding.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibAc3RBbffu4wvUWFw1e6fMBdX5haV-94aYfgKNKQ4rCohjNPVgDmuG4zrASkQJ9y1SsJ5kz_d9heAmC-LvWuw10mFwo0O4rqwkyGXEsKHHCQNuJjSsRQQFkEltE8Xjxt8R59sAu5MionMaE475o6pg6AOFf8Q6r2Whui5_r5PC9OKn3dyGLMz/s1600/SPXEW_Apr24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibAc3RBbffu4wvUWFw1e6fMBdX5haV-94aYfgKNKQ4rCohjNPVgDmuG4zrASkQJ9y1SsJ5kz_d9heAmC-LvWuw10mFwo0O4rqwkyGXEsKHHCQNuJjSsRQQFkEltE8Xjxt8R59sAu5MionMaE475o6pg6AOFf8Q6r2Whui5_r5PC9OKn3dyGLMz/s1600/SPXEW_Apr24.png"/></a></div> <p>The S&P edged a breakout of its small handle, which gives an indication that the equal-weighted S&P should follow suit on the break of the 'bull flag'. The only caveat is the edged breakout lacked sufficient consolidation to shake out the weak hands, so it leaves the move vulnerable to volume selling.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxK69zWySo2NYEWUN-WMbW7ad47YfjT3IMfaYO3b9OqP0Rfr9YYo1oZKdFfTdK70qx0g6rg0T3X2fa-w00Slmz-fa0TUHE2JNNdKq6Ja-SH8egL3FbitLePIv2kRl7zofgeL0ZX9DDvokRUJCyXYdm_rvhNKKoCsSZBW7ZJ5MkOg8Uhb-_LUIb/s1600/spx_apr24.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxK69zWySo2NYEWUN-WMbW7ad47YfjT3IMfaYO3b9OqP0Rfr9YYo1oZKdFfTdK70qx0g6rg0T3X2fa-w00Slmz-fa0TUHE2JNNdKq6Ja-SH8egL3FbitLePIv2kRl7zofgeL0ZX9DDvokRUJCyXYdm_rvhNKKoCsSZBW7ZJ5MkOg8Uhb-_LUIb/s1600/spx_apr24.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq finished Friday on higher volume accumulation after a successful defense of the breakout gap. As with the S&P, there hasn't been sufficient consolidation to take out the early profit takers. The relative performance of the index to the Russell 2000 has been shifting back and forth throughout 2026 - its currently outperforming, although I think this may be better news for the Russell 2000 in the long term.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVKhQD0_DPHmeBFEbzkxB5pzVruLOLqbatLjF8pbrnMG-NZZ_YQmiOf-xdo0TAkXmodeDr96qrbhw5TYd1Q2nyAka0h01TXRfBdyKsQJm8F2FkQ0t5nDf0gtb6mMTWJCEy_9Pxs3en_KekLaSiSdrP15J_lUd8BIfzj6dC60ihT5XZarCfVxMI/s1600/compq_apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVKhQD0_DPHmeBFEbzkxB5pzVruLOLqbatLjF8pbrnMG-NZZ_YQmiOf-xdo0TAkXmodeDr96qrbhw5TYd1Q2nyAka0h01TXRfBdyKsQJm8F2FkQ0t5nDf0gtb6mMTWJCEy_9Pxs3en_KekLaSiSdrP15J_lUd8BIfzj6dC60ihT5XZarCfVxMI/s1600/compq_apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have reached what looks like the last measured move target from the swing low in November 2025. Given the rate of acceleration, it's hard not to expect a level of selling that could cause panic for those who bought Semiconductor stocks on Friday. For me, I see the first stable support at 8,500 and little else besides.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiHO3zt9eltNYXMXwQ7zG9yd0YpimZ0c8GEIoCbRhBABiz3O_u_6J1Atgm8paGb5bTU27iqf1u1CHRfmTrvXpOcZnyIImMlrZiT8LWTN1W5-OXtLP967jOIsB6aj5ojTDmeq0Xaknovm2T1QU8ak4TPVcHk6Yfrbjyqr8MW00f_x7UfPDybgkG/s1600/SOX_apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiHO3zt9eltNYXMXwQ7zG9yd0YpimZ0c8GEIoCbRhBABiz3O_u_6J1Atgm8paGb5bTU27iqf1u1CHRfmTrvXpOcZnyIImMlrZiT8LWTN1W5-OXtLP967jOIsB6aj5ojTDmeq0Xaknovm2T1QU8ak4TPVcHk6Yfrbjyqr8MW00f_x7UfPDybgkG/s1600/SOX_apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>In contrast, the equal-weight Nasdaq 100, has only just broken above its 200-day MA as of Friday's close, although technically remains strong. For comparison, the Semiconductor Index is 48% above its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoAX08w1Zg7KsJ-upeuDn1LitTi9yv6T1FeyzZ6FzWAQAs2Sb0-hKE8SFxjEPLPFUHqxZ-C3BjLUzjehcu8o3TPXDJuyjO2CehVJfv0mM0-qO30-eyrQ2wMv6knGyphH44L9V11Qaezocjux3lZkS6IDJUK4wrjWTOlt6lLcTtJz1SVHp0MEeP/s1600/qqew_apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoAX08w1Zg7KsJ-upeuDn1LitTi9yv6T1FeyzZ6FzWAQAs2Sb0-hKE8SFxjEPLPFUHqxZ-C3BjLUzjehcu8o3TPXDJuyjO2CehVJfv0mM0-qO30-eyrQ2wMv6knGyphH44L9V11Qaezocjux3lZkS6IDJUK4wrjWTOlt6lLcTtJz1SVHp0MEeP/s1600/qqew_apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin continues to behave well and has been making steady progress back to its 200-day MA, which is likely to be the first point of contact for profit taking.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3SBMG_PJTHDSLaM9e3wQjP8FPpClFOockVvu2eGVRZHMhwoapq6quTrBj3XRnriuxG592gpAd6eM3EjwcNGdTub_C3na66ChW80_ysztlrMeuG-tlswMx9MJqseq9bs8pTbULWcg8i_8ycFBAxWsEQOe0ArEj3L4nkdIBZZS8XbZUYOZEQMKi/s1600/btcusd_apr26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3SBMG_PJTHDSLaM9e3wQjP8FPpClFOockVvu2eGVRZHMhwoapq6quTrBj3XRnriuxG592gpAd6eM3EjwcNGdTub_C3na66ChW80_ysztlrMeuG-tlswMx9MJqseq9bs8pTbULWcg8i_8ycFBAxWsEQOe0ArEj3L4nkdIBZZS8XbZUYOZEQMKi/s1600/btcusd_apr26.png"/></a></div> <p>Markets are doing what they do despite the Iranian war and hefty tariffs. I do have concerns above the Semiconductor Index (and associated indices) which can't keep posting an endless sequence of white candlesticks, but Bitcoin and the Russell 2000 are behaving solidly and show no reason to be bearish.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-76565890337091102512026-04-23T23:16:23.721+01:002026-04-23T23:16:23.721+01:00<p>After the rejection at resistance it would have been easy for the equal-weighted S&P to come back to its moving averages. However, today's close delivered a bullish dragonfly doji, although momentum is overbought which means it's not a reversal candlestick. Given the proximity to resistance it's well placed to deliver a breakout following the lead of weighted the S&P. Technicals are net bullish, but there is still significant underperformance against the weighted average.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPxWRPEEZIykE3C7Lf_NnBNB2ipONZll4gwnkpwUTWrDwUd8D6sdxn_vCWgfnSM837bCtlqyc1MRiS6b8nF82gaH1o4qR9POM1byrN3m5644JVC0nbJxc3bIL2eiGjlGJihbXHSYGMgy46zRBoTyrdDxYvrh_cO3EA3UboiPM-gkH4-q2W7D-r/s1600/SPXEW_Apr23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPxWRPEEZIykE3C7Lf_NnBNB2ipONZll4gwnkpwUTWrDwUd8D6sdxn_vCWgfnSM837bCtlqyc1MRiS6b8nF82gaH1o4qR9POM1byrN3m5644JVC0nbJxc3bIL2eiGjlGJihbXHSYGMgy46zRBoTyrdDxYvrh_cO3EA3UboiPM-gkH4-q2W7D-r/s1600/SPXEW_Apr23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>Action over the last week in the weighted S&P has been shaping a solid handle. It now offers a good risk:reward opportunity and the chance for a measured move target to 7,900.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmz78BAJsMG385vCOUVzFJWj64XWR9j-P4P7HKuQHjQEvncnJ3xe70iw9pNgOrsQT5bizoFOMrteK9cT-byjHjcwB9PwMCHu1oQdBP51niSQJfC9IfCahY0vvHiM_q-WGICv2FWi-mKjoGqJYmWKeewgOSPCNUNPHqZPSfIfrnbDQFt4Np9trc/s1600/spx_apr23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmz78BAJsMG385vCOUVzFJWj64XWR9j-P4P7HKuQHjQEvncnJ3xe70iw9pNgOrsQT5bizoFOMrteK9cT-byjHjcwB9PwMCHu1oQdBP51niSQJfC9IfCahY0vvHiM_q-WGICv2FWi-mKjoGqJYmWKeewgOSPCNUNPHqZPSfIfrnbDQFt4Np9trc/s1600/spx_apr23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 edged itself above its 200-day MA yesterday, but dropped back below it today. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, although technicals are net bullish. This action may be a 'mini-bull trap'.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC4EPvGw5IuI19YUAEQNBtrFkDvYWZmimC-WiVMeU32QeDO256Gp8C9Sry24EuXAAuBbdFH_9qUXGOc6k8i5APcRnO8W-BOsZXQb96zl4AzNFGYsMbkOnpR4B1MTfb96WcWgQQrPiCLoLt59pU5drSZaqm_nqBWLDrNjdYRmdVKS1vMZxuCgIs/s1600/qqew_apr23b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC4EPvGw5IuI19YUAEQNBtrFkDvYWZmimC-WiVMeU32QeDO256Gp8C9Sry24EuXAAuBbdFH_9qUXGOc6k8i5APcRnO8W-BOsZXQb96zl4AzNFGYsMbkOnpR4B1MTfb96WcWgQQrPiCLoLt59pU5drSZaqm_nqBWLDrNjdYRmdVKS1vMZxuCgIs/s1600/qqew_apr23b.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is holding its breakout and is showing decent demand at 24,200, and is a good place to place stops if looking to go long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4AOZDzmUPkASl57h0xbFUv93SB676lGFFMc3CDStxQH6bl2BtkooK8ULVg0GLGGiTvJ3OFtoW0dVDyUuy-E4ULjuGSxu8SibKdds3hdJ6vPideGwKvXQ70MMaqxeGcj6RJoJGtU1z0MOGzoD1ckYxnQjGrOm_KB02X-75Bgc_K55kKGKxwHNx/s1600/compq_apr23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4AOZDzmUPkASl57h0xbFUv93SB676lGFFMc3CDStxQH6bl2BtkooK8ULVg0GLGGiTvJ3OFtoW0dVDyUuy-E4ULjuGSxu8SibKdds3hdJ6vPideGwKvXQ70MMaqxeGcj6RJoJGtU1z0MOGzoD1ckYxnQjGrOm_KB02X-75Bgc_K55kKGKxwHNx/s1600/compq_apr23.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have yet to register a down day in nearly 3 weeks. It's got to a point where you can't be a buyer, but there isn't a reason to sell either. Psychological resistance of 10K has been breached and this is perhaps the new stop zone if long.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinmzVfPKF6xa3AvBDNK5bGBSd_Cyz7Cd4WnlBmoxuzUpqvTknTCJHEyaUbNoSoUK5XmW4zDqTgoi51PIuocUnbFzNV3rQTNh-XFpIv7grLkFhW3fkcRFgujBr7bDL6XHIcBiCgfS6ZpPbKt16YdVxnZqfr9tKnZsetxG5TKhE24RdMgv8jYSty/s1600/sox_apr23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinmzVfPKF6xa3AvBDNK5bGBSd_Cyz7Cd4WnlBmoxuzUpqvTknTCJHEyaUbNoSoUK5XmW4zDqTgoi51PIuocUnbFzNV3rQTNh-XFpIv7grLkFhW3fkcRFgujBr7bDL6XHIcBiCgfS6ZpPbKt16YdVxnZqfr9tKnZsetxG5TKhE24RdMgv8jYSty/s1600/sox_apr23.png"/></a></div> <p>Equal weighted indices are catching up with their weighted peers. Latter indices are offering good longside opportunities. Even if sellers strike, there is plenty of support to work with.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-73123981044954329952026-04-21T22:35:00.002+01:002026-04-21T22:35:28.604+01:00<p>It's of no coincidence that when sellers appeared for the equal weighted S&P they did so at resistance. Today's candlestick at all-time resistance was almost a bearish enfulfing pattern with a spike high penetrating resistance. Given the weighted S&P had already broken to new all-time highs, the guidance here is for equal-weighted S&P to follow suit. BUT, if the weighted S&P undercuts breakout support to leave a 'bull trap', then much worse is likely to follow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4671rThWXI7C5pZw81klS-pEX_LuxbwrQEJ8QjZgXV5JRkPEj2ArLu-YgCSGQ9QgVxTvW8cYVJnZeRF3AvBTOCUAy2bHDzFIrMEH0wGB-wRIF4vz7WA9pVtLp6qJlycgMtv2cSew9zjJy2PBdkjjujFz2rNvemFfvYaos9PzXW1UbCBolBy5v/s1600/spxew_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4671rThWXI7C5pZw81klS-pEX_LuxbwrQEJ8QjZgXV5JRkPEj2ArLu-YgCSGQ9QgVxTvW8cYVJnZeRF3AvBTOCUAy2bHDzFIrMEH0wGB-wRIF4vz7WA9pVtLp6qJlycgMtv2cSew9zjJy2PBdkjjujFz2rNvemFfvYaos9PzXW1UbCBolBy5v/s1600/spxew_apr21.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyOk3csgloTHvs6z1sNRBNB57YmpEqedBa_ka3TgQkBcx0IaaVjRJ0bJwdUGAOGsXaGdVwphstPw3kmjdMsffyQs9TY7z_hh9L90xj-Xi15d0mBjjIg2gQ1hxVTMVCZOhg6LoQIOhInvUQH1OUHgs3K_nPqlhYMD4nsYylVCfhsV3l9ouoMc7c/s1600/spx_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyOk3csgloTHvs6z1sNRBNB57YmpEqedBa_ka3TgQkBcx0IaaVjRJ0bJwdUGAOGsXaGdVwphstPw3kmjdMsffyQs9TY7z_hh9L90xj-Xi15d0mBjjIg2gQ1hxVTMVCZOhg6LoQIOhInvUQH1OUHgs3K_nPqlhYMD4nsYylVCfhsV3l9ouoMc7c/s1600/spx_apr21.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) also finished with a bearish engulfing pattern, but has some wiggle room to support. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, but technicals are net bullish. It's an index that is well placed for bulls to continue their advance, but it's important $268 support holds (on an EOD close basis, intraday violations are okay) if tested.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzj25nUmgSbqYuM8oeYx07YUrUWuYdc4zxfqhzKZz7hZvYvSo0DCV2CTiRIDbaChXx5LVYDYM5ldQ3ALzHG_4TjLuyDsyPkVdQ4ViKv4uAX8y-sD-xQqMIrfrR-frtnU97BQ43JsQFnzmqQSKibCb4niO_S79rQVHKwUzd9o0puie338UHaqRR/s1600/iwm_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzj25nUmgSbqYuM8oeYx07YUrUWuYdc4zxfqhzKZz7hZvYvSo0DCV2CTiRIDbaChXx5LVYDYM5ldQ3ALzHG_4TjLuyDsyPkVdQ4ViKv4uAX8y-sD-xQqMIrfrR-frtnU97BQ43JsQFnzmqQSKibCb4niO_S79rQVHKwUzd9o0puie338UHaqRR/s1600/iwm_apr21.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is in a similar predictament as the Russell 2000 ($IWM), and has psychological support of 7,000 to work with. Technicals are net bullish, volume barely registered as distribution.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-O_wsdqRoEPIvCz0a0gSFSXZ4T-9A5wsfoFqLHWqn7ebiLAAqn4p6h7NERUI5BVaJyqd6Q4tNNtbGM2l34PhI0l8k5JVyr6GiboiyIC0ZmYCK08WviveM9TlVBvk1frXUztK_pkMnMM0PT_izXMZXWaZHtU4ef8EsUJF8l6mNriI1EbE2-Wi/s1600/compq_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-O_wsdqRoEPIvCz0a0gSFSXZ4T-9A5wsfoFqLHWqn7ebiLAAqn4p6h7NERUI5BVaJyqd6Q4tNNtbGM2l34PhI0l8k5JVyr6GiboiyIC0ZmYCK08WviveM9TlVBvk1frXUztK_pkMnMM0PT_izXMZXWaZHtU4ef8EsUJF8l6mNriI1EbE2-Wi/s1600/compq_apr21.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 is tagging its 200-day MA in what is also a key resistance test. It's still someway from breaking to new highs which is a little concerning for bulls. Technicals are net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5jQTK4CDrZZ_uLqI7Dv0Y2SjMuAyrna3LXbgnp1oyL8ZcDSWNkrRtSjAD0k9gPmLSGOenVAlLHU1rQ4A-tcHXLPmSUKp7QF0Fg5XlvqQR07vufMX1trN_GxL8CwtlQDNY5XN0Bc8MLjYDdm6KlnrMNeGbCH4zyod1IJuvzuPTFNUY5lj3SSvu/s1600/qqew_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5jQTK4CDrZZ_uLqI7Dv0Y2SjMuAyrna3LXbgnp1oyL8ZcDSWNkrRtSjAD0k9gPmLSGOenVAlLHU1rQ4A-tcHXLPmSUKp7QF0Fg5XlvqQR07vufMX1trN_GxL8CwtlQDNY5XN0Bc8MLjYDdm6KlnrMNeGbCH4zyod1IJuvzuPTFNUY5lj3SSvu/s1600/qqew_apr21.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin is stable, steadily rising, but nothing to dramatic. An unusual predicatment for a cryptocurrency.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8AdH2bX8Jnq4FOS9jekU_TJ5IRhrhFrFE7ipTMcljU9clg8C2ePS3R1nDWYCaGR-PTCoXe-BBORlB8sI0uGGfXr5omOF6EItE6ZvGre6AmURqBXEc7zPHss6O_4WlkZh_gCiFmognT0N-rtCasy9wzse6miX3IqRA0yT6Mpf5mHqX0cfrak9M/s1600/btcusd_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8AdH2bX8Jnq4FOS9jekU_TJ5IRhrhFrFE7ipTMcljU9clg8C2ePS3R1nDWYCaGR-PTCoXe-BBORlB8sI0uGGfXr5omOF6EItE6ZvGre6AmURqBXEc7zPHss6O_4WlkZh_gCiFmognT0N-rtCasy9wzse6miX3IqRA0yT6Mpf5mHqX0cfrak9M/s1600/btcusd_apr21.png"/></a></div> <p>The Semiconductor Index reached its measured move target in less than a couple of weeks from its breakout. Psychological resistance of 10K is fast approaching.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbw_0uaSbPwGbGFTtEGRtlsY71Sw0TvgdTgSAzw3QI-oAv482eOkpkXVHni31ESeNNhuQN7qpgjLyqt5kZCCqqOH3y8z9ZpmcBHAaQ09pthcfJbhNZcwC_EN2gd17duep7nCO5U5p5Lc_gq9hztifsWQRqbAovzAGNelASkF8su-O13Oo2b-be/s1600/sox_apr21.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbw_0uaSbPwGbGFTtEGRtlsY71Sw0TvgdTgSAzw3QI-oAv482eOkpkXVHni31ESeNNhuQN7qpgjLyqt5kZCCqqOH3y8z9ZpmcBHAaQ09pthcfJbhNZcwC_EN2gd17duep7nCO5U5p5Lc_gq9hztifsWQRqbAovzAGNelASkF8su-O13Oo2b-be/s1600/sox_apr21.png"/></a></div> <p>Sellers have finally made an appearance after a couple of weeks of straight buying. We have clear support levels to protect (or resistance areas to breach). Consensus is that bulls are in control. World events would suggest bears will win out. The coming days will be the decider.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-26184544036630879032026-04-19T23:22:00.002+01:002026-04-19T23:22:47.078+01:00<p>Friday delivered a solid move higher across indices. The Russell 2000 had the best of the action with a breakout gap higher on confirmed accumulation. The only negative is the relative underpeformance to peer indices. It's just a question what spanner Trump wants to throw at the indices; next week could be a long week.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFrhOh6egkNmdNiVpI_OnrrP-dsC_S1ib9Iz28iVPF8KEjix9R0FvB6KnMqdcDScKb7c8c5Lx9feu8jSm1F1RSC9uI_Smqhl_tFH2VMB2hGi8xfyMMjM4R0evzcDXWZCVVhkHHqANtJ_fROsZUpZ1w9Kup6yg2ZONxv3HCcgpVM_Nkz33Si0LN/s1600/iwm_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFrhOh6egkNmdNiVpI_OnrrP-dsC_S1ib9Iz28iVPF8KEjix9R0FvB6KnMqdcDScKb7c8c5Lx9feu8jSm1F1RSC9uI_Smqhl_tFH2VMB2hGi8xfyMMjM4R0evzcDXWZCVVhkHHqANtJ_fROsZUpZ1w9Kup6yg2ZONxv3HCcgpVM_Nkz33Si0LN/s1600/iwm_apr19.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P had already registered a breakout, and Friday's gains just added to that. At the same time, underpeformance to the Nasdaq widened. </p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaB1VGuyZGHapFp6OX_3I5PWkObdPG9ZZuXm20QGESCB2JKqRI3mDB-KJ7pt16AcqSTYAIXVzdCs-7EfZGXYiuKE24MvOPVIBNA6TIOc9vrW2U0zrQ0TO3Bh4XUfiYJLFMxT7INTredkn4DNdk1LL-zmFbQozRYlF5sCuoQLE7P3QSesaVp9C8/s1600/SPX_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaB1VGuyZGHapFp6OX_3I5PWkObdPG9ZZuXm20QGESCB2JKqRI3mDB-KJ7pt16AcqSTYAIXVzdCs-7EfZGXYiuKE24MvOPVIBNA6TIOc9vrW2U0zrQ0TO3Bh4XUfiYJLFMxT7INTredkn4DNdk1LL-zmFbQozRYlF5sCuoQLE7P3QSesaVp9C8/s1600/SPX_apr19.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq logged yet another white candlestick on confirmed accumulation. The last down day was over 2 weeks ago, so odds are, we will see a couple next week. A breakout support test is the minimum to look for next week.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFoRK4n6EhJd-vo8s2jAlBYmCXVV1Ek0pPFvFJJA9uyzfqnT-gxOoHjPCL4Od8-LvGDAmfPZg_w3jnw6rgD16_taXuNZiTgbiYKmzG3yNGPN7PwkZArhmEUp8W9EODmcv_aul6bbtdr8FA0yti6WXt5I6guVRJf6YsVjbPyUcx1AiOlqTXHOK/s1600/compq_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFoRK4n6EhJd-vo8s2jAlBYmCXVV1Ek0pPFvFJJA9uyzfqnT-gxOoHjPCL4Od8-LvGDAmfPZg_w3jnw6rgD16_taXuNZiTgbiYKmzG3yNGPN7PwkZArhmEUp8W9EODmcv_aul6bbtdr8FA0yti6WXt5I6guVRJf6YsVjbPyUcx1AiOlqTXHOK/s1600/compq_apr19.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin delivered a breakout earlier in the week before it drifted back to breakout support. I'm still liking this for more upside and it looks like it has a steady pair of hands.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpjNFgncQWwkJ0fyEGDnTooHX2w1jNqjUbLtoPLAGUMtKzbHvB9R-megSlM1t2Tjd3UBPUpW1L3ykc65H5_Nq1YV_7ClZMJaFyWQA7tHpgWDrPqJ7-3LhWae-NB4E8Admv2DNy60Mjl6Dwg5TMhBcgc2n8MuqF488EjgCKzb0DDXh8yf4VR4Ut/s1600/btcusd_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpjNFgncQWwkJ0fyEGDnTooHX2w1jNqjUbLtoPLAGUMtKzbHvB9R-megSlM1t2Tjd3UBPUpW1L3ykc65H5_Nq1YV_7ClZMJaFyWQA7tHpgWDrPqJ7-3LhWae-NB4E8Admv2DNy60Mjl6Dwg5TMhBcgc2n8MuqF488EjgCKzb0DDXh8yf4VR4Ut/s1600/btcusd_apr19.png"/></a></div> <p>The equal-weighted S&P broked from its indecision to move towards resistance. Such a test is likely next week, if not Monday. The question is whether it can follow the weighted S&P with a breakout of its own. Technicals are net bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuN2LXaquxnrZ8UwO6vkQHd_nsl_eeHnTLx5SeQTPYXoYor6X8FQ0a5CCYXPYyHvUcNpuvKsjSwTw10Z-WzAlv8hvF_0QgpxnBEXRB2dmwzxJneEoiGMGbacD8uwWQzYooPogwrDp5crwSngPLrbYvXra6w0MgwBNJ1-RYyfp7K7tviZ31fM4Y/s1600/spxew_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuN2LXaquxnrZ8UwO6vkQHd_nsl_eeHnTLx5SeQTPYXoYor6X8FQ0a5CCYXPYyHvUcNpuvKsjSwTw10Z-WzAlv8hvF_0QgpxnBEXRB2dmwzxJneEoiGMGbacD8uwWQzYooPogwrDp5crwSngPLrbYvXra6w0MgwBNJ1-RYyfp7K7tviZ31fM4Y/s1600/spxew_apr19.png"/></a></div> <p>Semiconductors have been bordering on the absurd, and is fast approaching psychological resistance of 10K. I would look for some serious profit taking (in associated assets, like $SMH) when it gets there.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrB0Omsi3cvQGAg5Ib25QHm6zlRs02kw7W3wt77P_aMeY1yax69fBYZEsxv9xyzVbZV2llV2q37g4hN-dmSTZytsP9SFLTWIInDOZMO0r32EBiOf-aV_SxSRo6exVvwZdqwb4n7C_wqRSoVdPWMJQbMfyMvcSg-yWXBLNmvQyuX9wsgkyArI29/s1600/sox_apr19.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrB0Omsi3cvQGAg5Ib25QHm6zlRs02kw7W3wt77P_aMeY1yax69fBYZEsxv9xyzVbZV2llV2q37g4hN-dmSTZytsP9SFLTWIInDOZMO0r32EBiOf-aV_SxSRo6exVvwZdqwb4n7C_wqRSoVdPWMJQbMfyMvcSg-yWXBLNmvQyuX9wsgkyArI29/s1600/sox_apr19.png"/></a></div> <p>And if there was a downside area to look for, a cluster of Fib levels around 6K would not be unreasonable.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLqaj9JWTbsNxh8NrvpCmRoiYmFpTvAZvSO-JuiMQQlBFQzdKYz6BPOkdpu9Egagj0MugbMoSbmWDYVOM_kqxC8EXg7Tm56EoVGx7acdGBD0Ewbx8UY5umBNfsXSfIdFMGvp1eSKlvdeCLthJZvltJY1fUlPBnklW_y4u9trxLP7xt_hBNXHVn/s1600/sox_apr19w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLqaj9JWTbsNxh8NrvpCmRoiYmFpTvAZvSO-JuiMQQlBFQzdKYz6BPOkdpu9Egagj0MugbMoSbmWDYVOM_kqxC8EXg7Tm56EoVGx7acdGBD0Ewbx8UY5umBNfsXSfIdFMGvp1eSKlvdeCLthJZvltJY1fUlPBnklW_y4u9trxLP7xt_hBNXHVn/s1600/sox_apr19w.png"/></a></div> <p>Indices have done nothing but go higher since there was a sniff of a ceasefire in the Iranian war. I see nothing to suggest a true ceasefire is in the works, so how markets have been so confident as to make new all-time highs (beyond their pre-war state) seems odd, but that's the market as it stands now, and price is king.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-71697398834143173072026-04-16T12:45:00.002+01:002026-04-16T12:45:32.623+01:00<p>It's no coincidence to see indices start to slow their gains as resistance approaches. This was best represented by the Russell 2000 ($IWM) as the advanced got squeezed and the net gain on the day was minimal (Futures suggest a modest start, no big breakout yet). The breakout could happen before the week is out, but the gap moves we have seen will act as a draw to be filled, so don't be surprised if we a move back to Tuesday's gap higher. Technicals for the index are in good shape, although volume is a little disappointing.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIszry8-X3EEUVLZRUlJKTiH2xUbQ-p1axPdBGMquJIeb1vvUvLUcxXxQuO97ZhBC8AeQvbH3Pr4d5tbPoUdwMJoDccJr1by1_Syno4vZ1urVUw6v_5EFpU0Wismi9PvzJSKK2R3cDXPG9cm5pU4AuAdZn7j9lpVKLy-AUYVkM3qJU_4lLjppo/s1600/iwm_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIszry8-X3EEUVLZRUlJKTiH2xUbQ-p1axPdBGMquJIeb1vvUvLUcxXxQuO97ZhBC8AeQvbH3Pr4d5tbPoUdwMJoDccJr1by1_Syno4vZ1urVUw6v_5EFpU0Wismi9PvzJSKK2R3cDXPG9cm5pU4AuAdZn7j9lpVKLy-AUYVkM3qJU_4lLjppo/s1600/iwm_apr16.png"/></a></div> <a name='more'></a><p>The glass-half-full folks can point to the S&P that has delivered a breakout on yesterday's close. There is a vulnerability in that it has shot up without decline since recovering 6,550, and it's hard to see that hold without some form of pullback. Again, excellent technical strength, and volume trading has been solid, if unremarkable.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP8LNdkti81Wm-JGkn7vWFvlALYX7c0GkZkMPVHdTRTsq4bSgCdMH-rMYrhtGBWk_yXk9WyXf1P8LC6EOeQJHkwtyD0-bm9cMdVKgPot8UMrUiMf5ejStE15PNVNwjfEq3BKGeb9PBOkWUq7lh4byx5eioE_foH3_SG_8wcCantu13EAKnTYXG/s1600/spx_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP8LNdkti81Wm-JGkn7vWFvlALYX7c0GkZkMPVHdTRTsq4bSgCdMH-rMYrhtGBWk_yXk9WyXf1P8LC6EOeQJHkwtyD0-bm9cMdVKgPot8UMrUiMf5ejStE15PNVNwjfEq3BKGeb9PBOkWUq7lh4byx5eioE_foH3_SG_8wcCantu13EAKnTYXG/s1600/spx_apr16.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq has the smallest of edge breakouts (16 points above 24K), but it had the benefit of increasing accumulation volume. This is an amazing recovery given it was close to testing 20K only a couple of weeks ago. It has all the green checks; net bullish technicals and lead relative performance for the indices.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTLY8HrCLcih5opwgU8zhUFZNzOHT6mkqZuJ11xw94UKZPGOuUotxFG6zKhijl-vEQ8iX2-ylClzaZU3EVBj_IDjGJVfcpiJXWgS6mCTB6f9BqfCfpNmwnRMNi8InGHZG3bxYBbFJMcIEFdbsg-MdGpjmRkeSySB3Urc_GSqwTdYQV_N4VEoxo/s1600/Nas_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTLY8HrCLcih5opwgU8zhUFZNzOHT6mkqZuJ11xw94UKZPGOuUotxFG6zKhijl-vEQ8iX2-ylClzaZU3EVBj_IDjGJVfcpiJXWgS6mCTB6f9BqfCfpNmwnRMNi8InGHZG3bxYBbFJMcIEFdbsg-MdGpjmRkeSySB3Urc_GSqwTdYQV_N4VEoxo/s1600/Nas_apr16.png"/></a></div> <p>The majority of this strength is coming off the back of Semiconductors, which haven't paused since breaking to new highs.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8e63X7qKQ4XKj4xkSogAWwX6HixHUMtqRLOA7Sm9opa7yErOtdMUESpM_un1N8QdDWJvHreOloDre9FB-noIBsTeBaaI_Je6s1_ALXbU7ODZ1Kb5rLvjPSzuJNssEe65XbK4a_vGVK6YHEg2m2HLz_7eE9_EAtxgp2md6emv1mgf8msvbfXsb/s1600/sox_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8e63X7qKQ4XKj4xkSogAWwX6HixHUMtqRLOA7Sm9opa7yErOtdMUESpM_un1N8QdDWJvHreOloDre9FB-noIBsTeBaaI_Je6s1_ALXbU7ODZ1Kb5rLvjPSzuJNssEe65XbK4a_vGVK6YHEg2m2HLz_7eE9_EAtxgp2md6emv1mgf8msvbfXsb/s1600/sox_apr16.png"/></a></div> <p>However, much as I dislike the asset class, the long 'tech' trade of choice still looks to be Bitcoin. Plenty of lost ground to make up, and building steady accumulation since the Februart washout.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWcRXI5xCzdfJHwnGs-JtLV6OVF6-WebkWvWA-Nv5mpMlGOH5KalTYnQk3B66FuV93KxZA9JOnCLInZIO10sca2pjU38PbVGWtVvK9b6lmQtrlFKISsW6GhoZwi9aA6O_q-bgfCJNbNAy-Bay2EmRadcmjeN1halk9X5OXNZB3rNO0oyXwYjDk/s1600/btcusd_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWcRXI5xCzdfJHwnGs-JtLV6OVF6-WebkWvWA-Nv5mpMlGOH5KalTYnQk3B66FuV93KxZA9JOnCLInZIO10sca2pjU38PbVGWtVvK9b6lmQtrlFKISsW6GhoZwi9aA6O_q-bgfCJNbNAy-Bay2EmRadcmjeN1halk9X5OXNZB3rNO0oyXwYjDk/s1600/btcusd_apr16.png"/></a></div> <p>The disappointments come from the equal-weighted averages and the Dow Industrials. I don't know if this really reflects the true state of the markets, as it's hard to be so optimistic given the unchanged state of the Iranian Gulf War. Yesterday's indecisive spinning top in the Dow Industrials is reason for caution, and it's a 50:50 call as to whether it continues to go test resistance, or makes the equal distance journey back to support and a new undercut of its 200-day MA. Buyer Beware.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjveyK1qZztUakQTPHBRHUA41L-NuSzXoiD9SU376UpzBGF5D_eQe1COk8cVEUgFc1U0DkQnGTSD1aAXAwpUlZx4u49l-rOPqSTdOy43r-_3ovJDPKDpo4jvwpegRGxnXpKcE8osTKsbal2jGAXUeB6yygHMyIIqM79HBl8borHBW0rLU_PO5qQ/s1600/indu_apr16.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjveyK1qZztUakQTPHBRHUA41L-NuSzXoiD9SU376UpzBGF5D_eQe1COk8cVEUgFc1U0DkQnGTSD1aAXAwpUlZx4u49l-rOPqSTdOy43r-_3ovJDPKDpo4jvwpegRGxnXpKcE8osTKsbal2jGAXUeB6yygHMyIIqM79HBl8borHBW0rLU_PO5qQ/s1600/indu_apr16.png"/></a></div> <p>The gains of the past couple of weeks don't feel 'real', but price is king and until we see a rejection of resistance (or a failed test of breakout support for Semiconductors), we have to assume the market wants to go higher. It does appear to be a good time to take some profits, particularly from tech stocks, and rotate into some of the underperforming names (nearly any non-tech sector) to take advantage of the next leadership surge.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-25786402974779329472026-04-13T21:48:00.002+01:002026-04-13T21:48:43.753+01:00<p>Markets have done well to hold the sizable gaps after version 1 of the US-Iranian ceasefire, and if there is reason for optimism, it's that markets are exepecting a version 2 of the ceasefire relatively soon(?).</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) returned to a net bullish technical state as the base breakout is on the way to challenging $270. Since the test of the 200-day MA there hasn't been an opportunity for 'value' buyers to step in on a pullback. This might happen when $270 is tested.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4rvWaZ7NLMj7UQB7r1QvRIWeFi-YWvOh_cH1xLID53AtzuUCo2nTjwpKi85uD6jkwcW9itqvNIeUJn8FfaCubPaQ4aP1KASB5CXi0dzNyNWho8nR4G-NI2tr_jsaNnGI1-pX8zdZxo9IrHlFk-Pepdyuz8PL5NPQjLXM0hpShr3msFdLitvQR/s1600/iwm_apr13b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4rvWaZ7NLMj7UQB7r1QvRIWeFi-YWvOh_cH1xLID53AtzuUCo2nTjwpKi85uD6jkwcW9itqvNIeUJn8FfaCubPaQ4aP1KASB5CXi0dzNyNWho8nR4G-NI2tr_jsaNnGI1-pX8zdZxo9IrHlFk-Pepdyuz8PL5NPQjLXM0hpShr3msFdLitvQR/s1600/iwm_apr13b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P may in the process of edging a new breakout of declining resistance that is an important level on the weekly chart. All-time highs are next, but I would like to see this breakout hold first. Technicals here are net bullish too.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibvuXoexza2jPwQTLek-oM6zWlCspLZ5FTSO8i21C26027DYroCLIiP4cJiI5G2u-OocNIQpPbgzS7tu6xRDt3aBrWfdvh9PXdGT9AlZO9P_DHHo8Cs78ciCchh79Dnrav6yu_bT8kvnFX7c_LIl3-tECJ69ne5qCdKixp5EwDRLoik2-vy2na/s1600/spx_apr13c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibvuXoexza2jPwQTLek-oM6zWlCspLZ5FTSO8i21C26027DYroCLIiP4cJiI5G2u-OocNIQpPbgzS7tu6xRDt3aBrWfdvh9PXdGT9AlZO9P_DHHo8Cs78ciCchh79Dnrav6yu_bT8kvnFX7c_LIl3-tECJ69ne5qCdKixp5EwDRLoik2-vy2na/s1600/spx_apr13c.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq has a little clear air to work with. The breakout is solid and technicals are net bullish, but it won't be the first to test all-time highs. However, traders can take their lead from the Russell 2000 and S&P.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGOo1_XxOKnfP6K_J48J1wVxp99Bkthde4rU0bf3rZReLfFU8BauASuZ2VwlePfkEcSsK1yIHMtD0fg1swzFhA4ySDHD3OesHQ9Vxb0PmRsLr8-fiJTInFkhWnYBKdfIfecI7Ms7qFy1x20Iew5rcC8L0tRVuhgirACAIrYGXi8aSWgFJLZcn5/s1600/compq_apr13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGOo1_XxOKnfP6K_J48J1wVxp99Bkthde4rU0bf3rZReLfFU8BauASuZ2VwlePfkEcSsK1yIHMtD0fg1swzFhA4ySDHD3OesHQ9Vxb0PmRsLr8-fiJTInFkhWnYBKdfIfecI7Ms7qFy1x20Iew5rcC8L0tRVuhgirACAIrYGXi8aSWgFJLZcn5/s1600/compq_apr13.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Bitcoin has been the unusual steady ship as it works to improve itself after an extensive sell off. There should be enough to see a test of the 200-day MA as part of a larger base recovery. Technicals are net positive.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIlWUvw_vdoaBmukdnBMOZWqYhF3Ixyl-xsTB-TaYjzlJnacthNqAmMprq4FFFAWZONBjWXnyQ6zXgwJveq2hSHXooH75Z0ICbVRYa8SkgLxaUe3Qc-ARA0DRFNbYa6omjuSy-Zy-vG_amtquUNQOwdrh9ZkX25xc28ynxJdEKoCOfhmYU9f42/s1600/btcusd_apr13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIlWUvw_vdoaBmukdnBMOZWqYhF3Ixyl-xsTB-TaYjzlJnacthNqAmMprq4FFFAWZONBjWXnyQ6zXgwJveq2hSHXooH75Z0ICbVRYa8SkgLxaUe3Qc-ARA0DRFNbYa6omjuSy-Zy-vG_amtquUNQOwdrh9ZkX25xc28ynxJdEKoCOfhmYU9f42/s1600/btcusd_apr13.png"/></a></div> <p>The one index that managed a new high and has accelerated higher is the Semiconductor Index. The gaps may amount to a blow off top, but given the index came close to testing its 200-day MA it has probably done enough to cool down and go again.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYhReoBUXCCAyUbE_B5QHe8L4dvRL5xonAmCPIaeUXORS-7Nr1MajpRj0hGPLkcDk083JRbnXWKfsl_fFkPDx3g_lbdsf6tpd7_Fei-2dD6zi2zYWor1tSTDqVY4bFVKJC6vA1M19fL4d3AXLvT1_2g3DxAiVr2xit0IpuedU7ll_Uu6yVEloj/s1600/sox_apr13.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYhReoBUXCCAyUbE_B5QHe8L4dvRL5xonAmCPIaeUXORS-7Nr1MajpRj0hGPLkcDk083JRbnXWKfsl_fFkPDx3g_lbdsf6tpd7_Fei-2dD6zi2zYWor1tSTDqVY4bFVKJC6vA1M19fL4d3AXLvT1_2g3DxAiVr2xit0IpuedU7ll_Uu6yVEloj/s1600/sox_apr13.png"/></a></div> <p>For now, expectation is for rallies to continue and challenge all-time highs, when some profit taking can be expected. From there, we can reassess markets.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-21785403156989511162026-04-09T23:49:00.003+01:002026-04-09T23:49:54.747+01:00<p>If you a follower of JC Parets you would be looking at a (very) bullish market outlook. I would be more cautious, but today's action has done much to negate some of the lingering bearishness from yesterday. However, markets in a trading range should be considered neutral until all-time highs are breached, but long term investors can accumulate.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped higher yesterday, but closed with a bearish black candlestick. However, today's buying managed to createa a bullish engulfing pattern to negate the bearish black candlestick. In addition, yesterday's gap created an "island reversal" which is a significant (bullish) reversal pattern. Note, this gap can't close for the pattern to be true. Technicals are improving with a 'buy' trigger in stochastics to match earlier ones in On-Balance-Volume and MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnfNLRTkUAZwQc9mT-ttQlvVdyxVw4Um41fnLy93aDkR0CFWMPNfDqUja1Zsu1zE5AZDIW-Jq5rXB2A8fNeScGfW6fbnceHSLj-86hBWKIWBDwm1dcMmyZMNfqOEYKXVuIQPLxzuuKc15ctKekDkM4yhTNJzKFC45PNl7RwX9-Y72tdXqi1vma/s1600/iwm_sep9b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnfNLRTkUAZwQc9mT-ttQlvVdyxVw4Um41fnLy93aDkR0CFWMPNfDqUja1Zsu1zE5AZDIW-Jq5rXB2A8fNeScGfW6fbnceHSLj-86hBWKIWBDwm1dcMmyZMNfqOEYKXVuIQPLxzuuKc15ctKekDkM4yhTNJzKFC45PNl7RwX9-Y72tdXqi1vma/s1600/iwm_sep9b.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P gapped past 200-day MA and today closed above its 50-day MA, but tomorrow will come up against declining resistance defined by the series of mini-swing highs from January/February. Technicals saw a new 'buy' signal in stochastics.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpqhzkI6gL1M3nEELMXrEFt4TaK1OqADiPh-QkXRo9rt0xw7QI0lk2kWJ3_9flZr-chSm_XPRmdU3iVR2N3d3ladEYrXTSzPAHZstxvRWGZfgYs_nyqxDMybwSsXvXZh4CMmQhks2eL-UDyxXqtUhgVjY3Oh-CdiOVJyDF7zVGRXhWPqFSj_8/s1600/spx_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpqhzkI6gL1M3nEELMXrEFt4TaK1OqADiPh-QkXRo9rt0xw7QI0lk2kWJ3_9flZr-chSm_XPRmdU3iVR2N3d3ladEYrXTSzPAHZstxvRWGZfgYs_nyqxDMybwSsXvXZh4CMmQhks2eL-UDyxXqtUhgVjY3Oh-CdiOVJyDF7zVGRXhWPqFSj_8/s1600/spx_apr9.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq also finished with a bearish 'black' candlestick on Wednesday, but managed to negate that today with a bullish engulfing pattern today. Today's action also retained a close above its 50-day MA along with a close above the stochastic mid-line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnRpeKZiphUMOSuI7MN_mXGIT9uguH8DMzGcrKW40xC-tSVMfHszKKXRyabO_v3YEnrYwUM212vIQJ3_AdhcHjIWzpDsvn_nZKt8GZpAGcUUYjPF60fALJl4pj-2L-BwIpg-6dYcjBbxqx-_dlhtRfuqaxR5BF1-So6A87uInICfpiWU2Ek6h7/s1600/compq_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnRpeKZiphUMOSuI7MN_mXGIT9uguH8DMzGcrKW40xC-tSVMfHszKKXRyabO_v3YEnrYwUM212vIQJ3_AdhcHjIWzpDsvn_nZKt8GZpAGcUUYjPF60fALJl4pj-2L-BwIpg-6dYcjBbxqx-_dlhtRfuqaxR5BF1-So6A87uInICfpiWU2Ek6h7/s1600/compq_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin managed to keep its bullish rally intact, but now does so on net bullish technicals.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC4giUP87Lg8uClNkwhR4ZYkzxmnj44SBlh75P7HoDNuXv-PATjVShVGUrhGbn8KDTbPjRwjBLQg5rZgFBsatGnvJfzxNWxxeyqHcQbbxR7jXDcs3cPdntRuHGVwteKXHzmQLiIXiwWIFkZzEapODHU3UgKHUnOqt8U4JuTUKUIV-Oeod1rAll/s1600/btcusd_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC4giUP87Lg8uClNkwhR4ZYkzxmnj44SBlh75P7HoDNuXv-PATjVShVGUrhGbn8KDTbPjRwjBLQg5rZgFBsatGnvJfzxNWxxeyqHcQbbxR7jXDcs3cPdntRuHGVwteKXHzmQLiIXiwWIFkZzEapODHU3UgKHUnOqt8U4JuTUKUIV-Oeod1rAll/s1600/btcusd_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>However, the Semiconductor Index managed a new breakout that does mark itself as a new bull market on net bullish technicals.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAeD4D1MZP7SsvrKh-dDlfUk7UFhsv95weFCcByPt8jkbOr0BV_Fw4wm3miuOCM2Iw5SJPRFLZt0nTtcCyIPXzmKh-dn_HNTBkwUQ_cQ_NM9FKkUu9Q52zjAyJza0fixMazb77phIGJ9udx23gJI5-nfAndczLgwVLjrSqUJya848Ay9Ks_Vl1/s1600/sox_apr9.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAeD4D1MZP7SsvrKh-dDlfUk7UFhsv95weFCcByPt8jkbOr0BV_Fw4wm3miuOCM2Iw5SJPRFLZt0nTtcCyIPXzmKh-dn_HNTBkwUQ_cQ_NM9FKkUu9Q52zjAyJza0fixMazb77phIGJ9udx23gJI5-nfAndczLgwVLjrSqUJya848Ay9Ks_Vl1/s1600/sox_apr9.png"/></a></div> <p>For tomorrow, we want to ensure today's gains are not undercut by any selling. A consolidation doji, or equivalent, would perhaps be the best outcome outside of another day's gain. It's just hard, given the state of the Iranian ceasefire, that tomorrow will deliver another bullish day.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-73809353921091146832026-04-07T22:38:00.002+01:002026-04-07T22:38:43.881+01:00<p>So we have markets coming to (or just beyond) resistance and a Trump deadline for Iran. Consequently, we are in position to see a sizable move tomorrow. Those markets that have broken resistance are signalling towards a positive outcome (or perhaps, a kick-the-can deadline for Iran). But if news is bad and we gap away from resistance, then many markets will be back at 200-day MAs.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is approaching converged resistance from $255, declining resistance and 50-day MA. Today's buying was on low volume, but counts as relative "accumulation" and marks itself as a possible bottom breakout.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQYLI7DzfiG57WEhgiIHlET9zbTg_fp-iidhrkM4gKCbIhYTWKWBr8OTPbjROJCIOqu_mrD5GGtPLXUt6upQpFIE-4Gn77uH9oTBKZ-dKlnkF0tKFHzHX8xIO41KucdRhL-dy8QBRbOOUnSp0HFmo_HflqTwXTNLILaD38RQbqfuWC2uZ-gf0D/s1600/iwm_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQYLI7DzfiG57WEhgiIHlET9zbTg_fp-iidhrkM4gKCbIhYTWKWBr8OTPbjROJCIOqu_mrD5GGtPLXUt6upQpFIE-4Gn77uH9oTBKZ-dKlnkF0tKFHzHX8xIO41KucdRhL-dy8QBRbOOUnSp0HFmo_HflqTwXTNLILaD38RQbqfuWC2uZ-gf0D/s1600/iwm_apr7.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P breakout included a MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'buy'. Today's bullish 'hammer' marked buyer interest on the retest of support. If there is bad news from Iran then we need to consider the possibility of a 'bull trap', and with the index below the 200-day MA it could prove to be an ugly day. Note the measured move targets (red arrow).</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQLu5NeFvPAkamUke1gFShjZHy_vMswDNU0H7rxjrbjgB9M31xblD-HyiORbyhyphenhyphenaSLpyyHGomUYVrZ5SCgPPFrtdQu8bDko4oymoztYW-5EaoSXYsZoYO9GjgbY9F5vlj4s_PrK4GCc5W4aR_aRu9vRbo09EGQY8KynEczKz6LHvsXDTQqMmYB/s1600/spx_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQLu5NeFvPAkamUke1gFShjZHy_vMswDNU0H7rxjrbjgB9M31xblD-HyiORbyhyphenhyphenaSLpyyHGomUYVrZ5SCgPPFrtdQu8bDko4oymoztYW-5EaoSXYsZoYO9GjgbY9F5vlj4s_PrK4GCc5W4aR_aRu9vRbo09EGQY8KynEczKz6LHvsXDTQqMmYB/s1600/spx_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq finished bang on resistance in what could be a picture perfect short. We have intermediate stochastics back on the midline, with price at declining resistance and 20-day MA, with the 200-day MA overhead, and a 50-day MA moving towards a "death cross". On the bullish side, we have MACD and On-Balance-Volume 'buy' triggers, on higher volume accucumulation, and bullish 'hammer', but a single day's selling on bad news is likely to undercut the 'hammer' low. Buyer beware.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_O4zKrRQr9nLX45vafFhiHZifZ5f8vyRELaVK3vBk3ZHIiTvtRpy1ExuueBp14nLC6uXgqaXyLD-b3ssb1NVIWzmqL7rf1E7KsB_HKECJgDs81d7XM_FFOyozyZbvMV6o4m46simBwJVFz3fWkl0eZJfTGQjFiBHybxwPMjv40FEYQr28PXYy/s1600/compq_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_O4zKrRQr9nLX45vafFhiHZifZ5f8vyRELaVK3vBk3ZHIiTvtRpy1ExuueBp14nLC6uXgqaXyLD-b3ssb1NVIWzmqL7rf1E7KsB_HKECJgDs81d7XM_FFOyozyZbvMV6o4m46simBwJVFz3fWkl0eZJfTGQjFiBHybxwPMjv40FEYQr28PXYy/s1600/compq_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has edged higher, but we are still awaiting the acceleration from the development of a right-hand-base. But the longer this basing goes on, the better long term investment this becomes, even if this asset reacts negatively to Iranian news.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO-xC3fljSsQD4KZoXY_8sbeCCuFoBY_LV-DQnjID3xnb_6D4ATvEwsfe9cipYVXXG9KSTEgroYGxRMlAt4Lz30lKqg8B2O4kiVFnifQW21acWtY9FQuar_XOwah2jE6gV3dNkMuRiQuCX_UBQZEnk0JfhvikwNbbYnBM2zFXsllvAQPwlKwbj/s1600/btcusd_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO-xC3fljSsQD4KZoXY_8sbeCCuFoBY_LV-DQnjID3xnb_6D4ATvEwsfe9cipYVXXG9KSTEgroYGxRMlAt4Lz30lKqg8B2O4kiVFnifQW21acWtY9FQuar_XOwah2jE6gV3dNkMuRiQuCX_UBQZEnk0JfhvikwNbbYnBM2zFXsllvAQPwlKwbj/s1600/btcusd_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial is at its 200-day MA with a series of spike lows denoting demand, although technicals are more bearish. On positive news, the 'bear trap' is well established and is typically a strong reversal signal. So, even if there is sell off tomorrow, it would take a few days worth of weakness to negate the 'bear trap'.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyO2qNRlvBOTtHyNQcX62CYjyeiGeGS2vPVJqQoMqV-qe6VRn3LHt9Mk8Xg-2m_InF3JYDA0-qpjr2Y9lsl6B8mD8FCy1UQeTU5vB62CpvNCxGPE_QlDpdNY9IiCUbK1xok6QevVxDtwgb-XoQ5xN-zS8iGuDL7m9Nrvq84lng6Iz4igI2GCfi/s1600/indu_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyO2qNRlvBOTtHyNQcX62CYjyeiGeGS2vPVJqQoMqV-qe6VRn3LHt9Mk8Xg-2m_InF3JYDA0-qpjr2Y9lsl6B8mD8FCy1UQeTU5vB62CpvNCxGPE_QlDpdNY9IiCUbK1xok6QevVxDtwgb-XoQ5xN-zS8iGuDL7m9Nrvq84lng6Iz4igI2GCfi/s1600/indu_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>We will know in the next few hours what Trump has in store for Iran, but for markets, the S&P Investor Survey suggests we are in a 2022 scenario that could see bearishness extend into this year's election.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PGfPBmRO1ur7FdpHVIEXPpao4jStLxa8QbCoa3B9qhnRIC869kZ28LrpNkjYxpefkvsK9bEEYyzTnqfSZpuDIktrd6foRXHrN582kJ8qaCBMTme8Qy-PI0kmvfr-1hbLR0PGCsydFNGc8RrSVNCqzAS9CVBDqxImjspljYFxRxK8lXL8ox78/s1600/aaii_apr7.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="800" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PGfPBmRO1ur7FdpHVIEXPpao4jStLxa8QbCoa3B9qhnRIC869kZ28LrpNkjYxpefkvsK9bEEYyzTnqfSZpuDIktrd6foRXHrN582kJ8qaCBMTme8Qy-PI0kmvfr-1hbLR0PGCsydFNGc8RrSVNCqzAS9CVBDqxImjspljYFxRxK8lXL8ox78/s1600/aaii_apr7.png"/></a></div> <p>Tik tok...</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-24437162339202496492026-04-05T22:11:00.004+01:002026-04-05T22:11:52.424+01:00<p>Markets swung back towards buyers, although there is plenty of work to do before we can call a rally. Best of the action was the S&P as it cleared declining resistance but has still to challenge its 20-day MA. There was a new 'buy' trigger in the MACD, but it's a very weak signal given the indicator is swimming below the MACD zero line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisgsPefpptS4hrLggD2DMXRFzB63Qfu0tlm3Pd_szWvwmusg9fvOCblrj9CKCw1h5FY1INfpnn7vqIx4koBPhdACutonwgHeVeekfi29foiJrjWhKNHocfuwCFclzJAN2uqkzB2pHDN1pdvi7toTN18_nlh4x0PszYmFpXzblPPqoyhs6rGHvI/s1600/spx_apr4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisgsPefpptS4hrLggD2DMXRFzB63Qfu0tlm3Pd_szWvwmusg9fvOCblrj9CKCw1h5FY1INfpnn7vqIx4koBPhdACutonwgHeVeekfi29foiJrjWhKNHocfuwCFclzJAN2uqkzB2pHDN1pdvi7toTN18_nlh4x0PszYmFpXzblPPqoyhs6rGHvI/s1600/spx_apr4.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed above it 20-day MA but still has to challenge more pertintent resistance from resistance highs. Having successfully defended its 200-day MA it now adds new 'buy' signals in On-Balance-Volume and MACD. The index also enjoys a relative perforance advantage over its peers.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJ7WzOq2b6knGDj3aG1tFBReNrGBL3oN2dyjVD36k6KpJVAOlaRGLPJzX2IOKay5669NH7wmnTmTnFXBxpHX3SF-noyKtw_hyWTw5kgn0__kASSXt4tpDO8QV5uJSxvJN1q_s6y4lgy-I7q2L2sS9BP9lo6w7gOACVfay2ajcg0BjIheZeB0z/s1600/iwm_apr4.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJ7WzOq2b6knGDj3aG1tFBReNrGBL3oN2dyjVD36k6KpJVAOlaRGLPJzX2IOKay5669NH7wmnTmTnFXBxpHX3SF-noyKtw_hyWTw5kgn0__kASSXt4tpDO8QV5uJSxvJN1q_s6y4lgy-I7q2L2sS9BP9lo6w7gOACVfay2ajcg0BjIheZeB0z/s1600/iwm_apr4.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq remains below range support and declining resistance. The past 3-days of buying was good with 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, but was otherwise unchanged and is still bearish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8575B9eOP4pF3F5xJ40kLlTeXNsEnp8fEpjYh2LEdWBqgweJO80PRvSJUP-9ZmmIdC5O0QkdrcFxcijJuQ1pTCNtFILLXvo10zmi13jqy9babqZC8-ok-wr4CWgowjolqnzmCAJVPS_n5xLFgs-Yeaa4EwWjTki5mExYU8kcuMgInM7rXAK4z/s1600/compq_may5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8575B9eOP4pF3F5xJ40kLlTeXNsEnp8fEpjYh2LEdWBqgweJO80PRvSJUP-9ZmmIdC5O0QkdrcFxcijJuQ1pTCNtFILLXvo10zmi13jqy9babqZC8-ok-wr4CWgowjolqnzmCAJVPS_n5xLFgs-Yeaa4EwWjTki5mExYU8kcuMgInM7rXAK4z/s1600/compq_may5.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin hasn't changed its picture either, but sides with bulls and is still a 'buying' opportunity for those looking for a trade. Technically, there was a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and a potential 'buy' trigger in the MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFzbNazeBao9SR4-JuGpVqFP3P2trgX7oIkMQ7f_p06qKCgiG2GKWCOHrNMiWP3hbpA_vIPK458oIfzIpJCxYI5zhLIe5b_oZXt9llAK1O8Xdv3a_4A3Z7dSNvE8DuuYDUFeOmeuC4sIVxShHF8hx2uHalho1QGo5yAPPiGxsxo1dNcjQvqsKX/s1600/btcusd_apr5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFzbNazeBao9SR4-JuGpVqFP3P2trgX7oIkMQ7f_p06qKCgiG2GKWCOHrNMiWP3hbpA_vIPK458oIfzIpJCxYI5zhLIe5b_oZXt9llAK1O8Xdv3a_4A3Z7dSNvE8DuuYDUFeOmeuC4sIVxShHF8hx2uHalho1QGo5yAPPiGxsxo1dNcjQvqsKX/s1600/btcusd_apr5.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully back-tested its breakout and defended the 20-day MA. Next is a move for a push above 47K. Supporting the breakout are 'buy' signals in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, and is outperforming peer indices.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOP00yc-j16U_CC0xFiBoU5KQOz2GdVUAv1y75FG4wo-3qx617QCx_TkRxsqwI4T1x7aLkRLtuKZ4qq0gx7Ef6ZldL3-d00dlWartxv5J6YrQtM7pDAum1xOAsto6r-oVV5V-Bwdt3D6DcJ5QDvbV_ob4MbY-R9pZDaapZXFO-WGDuKdHX6Mz6/s1600/DJIA_apr5.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOP00yc-j16U_CC0xFiBoU5KQOz2GdVUAv1y75FG4wo-3qx617QCx_TkRxsqwI4T1x7aLkRLtuKZ4qq0gx7Ef6ZldL3-d00dlWartxv5J6YrQtM7pDAum1xOAsto6r-oVV5V-Bwdt3D6DcJ5QDvbV_ob4MbY-R9pZDaapZXFO-WGDuKdHX6Mz6/s1600/DJIA_apr5.png"/></a></div> <p>Indices that have posted gains over the past 3 days are unlikely to post a fourth, or at least, aren't worth a long trade. Bitcoin remains the best opportunity for longs. Shorts don't have a whole lot to work with - maybe the Nasdaq will offer a short on a test of 47K.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-45901840489265033422026-04-01T23:10:00.004+01:002026-04-01T23:10:59.435+01:00<p>The positivity generated by yesterday's buying found itself under pressure today as 'gravestone doji' and 'inverse hammers' dominated. The good news was that support from weekly charts held and there is enough of a gap to offer a few days of wiggle room before sellers return. The problem is we should see selling tomorrow if these candlesticks play to form. The bearishness of these candles is negated by a close above today's highs.</p> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is perhaps the most vulnerable as it finished with the 'gravestone doji'. However, the recovery of the 200-day MA should give some grounds for optimism, and there were new 'buy' signals in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. There appears to be a buyer around $243.75, so pay attention to volume action near this price level.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA3tGuySQsKqf2ypwH89jihp4SJBWC_yuCI7zOc4zOAXaxA3AL_Wt_x-CWyAKzB5IuZ1Wex6pDPlEPpRDk6Wf1UAmbElK37tAHd1Sw8j6chglHr4GyVjx_GftYuSvVtYzUpxq_FC-ha4pl99NHeb4m3857zqmflwDTQwFBzi8dhrGg6g5cDuJa/s1600/iwm_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA3tGuySQsKqf2ypwH89jihp4SJBWC_yuCI7zOc4zOAXaxA3AL_Wt_x-CWyAKzB5IuZ1Wex6pDPlEPpRDk6Wf1UAmbElK37tAHd1Sw8j6chglHr4GyVjx_GftYuSvVtYzUpxq_FC-ha4pl99NHeb4m3857zqmflwDTQwFBzi8dhrGg6g5cDuJa/s1600/iwm_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P tagged its 20-day MA on today's high, but technicals remain bearish. While it managed to recover its 200-day MA it's close enough to see another test as soon as tomorrow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlb40wiukmVGOou_-2nxPhsb0faKr_pX5JYuS-vsFtOIQxPAm8Hjv2zpM0NoaOkBq1vIuinLIXEA5BZ6sy4RZ0rEYleS0lI7POto9r1K4ljVdeItEdGSpMp3-pYMGwwEve80q5-hM978C5joRQTSDGOcitFJn4FY3xG-bYlwZlS-gvIhL2GsnX/s1600/spxew_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlb40wiukmVGOou_-2nxPhsb0faKr_pX5JYuS-vsFtOIQxPAm8Hjv2zpM0NoaOkBq1vIuinLIXEA5BZ6sy4RZ0rEYleS0lI7POto9r1K4ljVdeItEdGSpMp3-pYMGwwEve80q5-hM978C5joRQTSDGOcitFJn4FY3xG-bYlwZlS-gvIhL2GsnX/s1600/spxew_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>It had looked like the weighted S&P was about to deliver a resistance break and a possible 'bear trap'. There is still the potential for a 'bear trap', but it would need to maintain a close above 6,550 to do so; an intraday spike below this level would be acceptable.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIpOFTBAzKrgdzCgGL_7qEEi36EhLaIJgc7r8NXJ0lUK7wG4eZ1Y7ESnbclXTsFcvj9FB2-Y76LJ5GKcog6yX3IWGsyX_sOPJ0hMWsJ2HSpVPme-ddc0z9Em0nDPhL7_Y3LXlDc2I1_xTdxHuXwvrWDLN7F6FthVHK0HpJwUQ3_ltHRiGpScU/s1600/spx_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIpOFTBAzKrgdzCgGL_7qEEi36EhLaIJgc7r8NXJ0lUK7wG4eZ1Y7ESnbclXTsFcvj9FB2-Y76LJ5GKcog6yX3IWGsyX_sOPJ0hMWsJ2HSpVPme-ddc0z9Em0nDPhL7_Y3LXlDc2I1_xTdxHuXwvrWDLN7F6FthVHK0HpJwUQ3_ltHRiGpScU/s1600/spx_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The Nasdaq is struggling to recover its breakdown and undercut of 200-day MA. It found itself tagging 20-day MA resistance before taking a modest end-of-day reversal. A case could be made for an aggressive short with a stop on a close above its 20-day MA. Technicals are firmly bearish. There isn't a whole lot to like here.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBak2IcloGjLPyUYUKjk5otRs5RZMrJCJMpzi473f6_pBZC4NtackIMKoenbcNw0mfRJHM8dytzSTaJAg8ibKkcd22FUbHeRjaAxVfp-_0ytRE7RsJeEp_cWMp7Dh9kRFregDB3WTQTmPl4Z9j12BjKuolrkxRS-GufetImYmMMlvjJrdkO2Y-/s1600/compq_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBak2IcloGjLPyUYUKjk5otRs5RZMrJCJMpzi473f6_pBZC4NtackIMKoenbcNw0mfRJHM8dytzSTaJAg8ibKkcd22FUbHeRjaAxVfp-_0ytRE7RsJeEp_cWMp7Dh9kRFregDB3WTQTmPl4Z9j12BjKuolrkxRS-GufetImYmMMlvjJrdkO2Y-/s1600/compq_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>It's a similar story for the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100, although it did stage a bounce from its measured move target. Today's small 'black' candlestick is not one to base hope on, particularly as technicals are net bearish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5AGHqiXPRO-46QJqgPr4LXhke3L6kZKlO3gO5QPffuaZ2e5C1AfHdpm4VghT9JpYcwEqpSTGHmSL7KkGGhMTddGR6NA5yqCJfnr1Y4senG-PPaPs9CAyZLRug9q4z0WvQ5JQQGCNcBhvncYdLjH98XoXCkjgl3sb8s4Cyuuyv14UUTHfH8LfY/s1600/qqew_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5AGHqiXPRO-46QJqgPr4LXhke3L6kZKlO3gO5QPffuaZ2e5C1AfHdpm4VghT9JpYcwEqpSTGHmSL7KkGGhMTddGR6NA5yqCJfnr1Y4senG-PPaPs9CAyZLRug9q4z0WvQ5JQQGCNcBhvncYdLjH98XoXCkjgl3sb8s4Cyuuyv14UUTHfH8LfY/s1600/qqew_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin hasn't flamed out on its latest 'buy', but it has become a scrappy affair. There is a new 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume and is on the verge of a new 'buy' signal in the MACD.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmqFzfvvLNqCAYlUBxRG87pLi2WZQQYqhK7tlMjQpMmybfIJb8AsU3XkDxUSkn4I5azvX-azqXIlupL6D0Q_tg07LF0RQAoFx8lgtEhEUKbiOtjHH9LXP5b0cY7KQrEq2c9IGEEgZezHeQmdocxUjfCRvYzVC8XHVp9buKQFQrcD4GpTRCa4nu/s1600/btcusd_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmqFzfvvLNqCAYlUBxRG87pLi2WZQQYqhK7tlMjQpMmybfIJb8AsU3XkDxUSkn4I5azvX-azqXIlupL6D0Q_tg07LF0RQAoFx8lgtEhEUKbiOtjHH9LXP5b0cY7KQrEq2c9IGEEgZezHeQmdocxUjfCRvYzVC8XHVp9buKQFQrcD4GpTRCa4nu/s1600/btcusd_apr1.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Best of the action may come from the Dow Industrial Average. It cleared declining resistance and left a 'bear trap' in the process. It has a similar reversal candlestick as other indices, but it has a little more to work with having successfully defended the October swing low. If it can trade sideways from here and not undercut 45.5K again it will be well placed to mount a new rally.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh92NvnBckqKjXsIzlvZy-KrSVAHF8zTHrqkG7Gls1Iww4c6zCcBU5lDNmQUd1EBJlb0oWLtvi1DDuZ1LeipT5m2ZJOdqIJoASMxTHgFj6siqsSmNYjnc6_wWbV_ziDYMEacIjKC7EQcm7sRxES-5so03_JAmX3OynQ2MvTc38kUNtr1CXfnZlD/s1600/indu_apr1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh92NvnBckqKjXsIzlvZy-KrSVAHF8zTHrqkG7Gls1Iww4c6zCcBU5lDNmQUd1EBJlb0oWLtvi1DDuZ1LeipT5m2ZJOdqIJoASMxTHgFj6siqsSmNYjnc6_wWbV_ziDYMEacIjKC7EQcm7sRxES-5so03_JAmX3OynQ2MvTc38kUNtr1CXfnZlD/s1600/indu_apr1.png"/></a></div> <p>We have workable support for the Dow, Russell 2000, Bitcoin and equal-weighted S&P; some look better than others. There is not really a trade on offer unless some of these make a return to near yesterday's open price on an intraday spike - but you would need a solid last half-hour to suggest there was real demand lurking.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-51493906980171287972026-03-30T22:37:00.002+01:002026-03-30T22:37:58.735+01:00<p>There is one thing a chaotic Trump can't control and that's the market, and the market is not pricing for good news any time soon. What good news there is, is that this decline is likely to lead to a good buying opportunity, similar to one last seen in April 2025 (as per the tables visible at the end of every post; if you just follow these signals you would be catching most of the major lows). We are only at the start of such a decline, but it's one I will be tracking.</p> <p>The strongest index is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It only just undercut its 200-day MA, and may yet defend this moving average, but it has a tough fight ahead of it. Technicals are net negative, but it's outperforming the Nasdaq, and posted a distribution day yesterday. If this does manage to recover it will set up a bounce opportunity and will be one of the few buying opportunities, but to do so, it has to close above its 200-day MA, ideally on a bullish hammer or similar reversal candlestick.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPiXp70hUlmGWR0CoHyBmhshSSH_Czng__-wcKEs7FdnslA8yXnsywqsP_G8QQwk9a-MOp53nDM3_4zrgTavWLbugP23ZVuOo8o1fIt5e3RH1Vrr4c4DbgwfLJAHxRJxex6d-MIzJqc73c2Pq80H614yiQWPjO_dO1vQCqqwtj7JWxeYM9rrhz/s1600/iwm_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPiXp70hUlmGWR0CoHyBmhshSSH_Czng__-wcKEs7FdnslA8yXnsywqsP_G8QQwk9a-MOp53nDM3_4zrgTavWLbugP23ZVuOo8o1fIt5e3RH1Vrr4c4DbgwfLJAHxRJxex6d-MIzJqc73c2Pq80H614yiQWPjO_dO1vQCqqwtj7JWxeYM9rrhz/s1600/iwm_mar30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P failed in its attempt to recover its 200-day MA and is paying the price now. Technicals are net negative but it's still managing to outperform the Nasdaq... I have marked in a measured move target lower for the index, which puts it in around 6,100, that's also an 8% loss from its 200-day MA - not enough for a strong 'buy' signal, but the index would be trading in an accumulation zone.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3j7WbMY3Oic_3MIaaDGURnJqoD9_U3_3kAnwdEvb_AZCLpXjz2DbMVA72wTcoj4Thl4OcCh5c-sYbmlVuV2dFfASiUx95XdEDHL00BKPxKWXYjQAzCgH5Ws84LzwiSa6V5rHLSiMqblbrGRyvv7bHqBupG3p3sYE48B5yyi38Z98G7BJPsK-j/s1600/spx_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3j7WbMY3Oic_3MIaaDGURnJqoD9_U3_3kAnwdEvb_AZCLpXjz2DbMVA72wTcoj4Thl4OcCh5c-sYbmlVuV2dFfASiUx95XdEDHL00BKPxKWXYjQAzCgH5Ws84LzwiSa6V5rHLSiMqblbrGRyvv7bHqBupG3p3sYE48B5yyi38Z98G7BJPsK-j/s1600/spx_mar30.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Speaking of measured move targets, the Nasdaq is close to hitting its measured move target down around 20K, or 10% below its 200-day MA, also an accumulation zone. What's also likely to happen soon is a 'death cross' between its 50-day MA and 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj16Q62-0dTBHCWv1THSd2sdVQ_sGGsMWuJm-ql3k4TgqIP58kM2z9o5-GolxufGqh9uiUNi9DyczcPSHV0i8BMev9Qg-Gw-N9p9Or1aVsT5DHo44866bWwZyIBdIfynL9GjWwn2OV0A2F-GJa3pKeaCrIAJXtVkOJJb-trQcf6DyWtxjrninO9/s1600/compq_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj16Q62-0dTBHCWv1THSd2sdVQ_sGGsMWuJm-ql3k4TgqIP58kM2z9o5-GolxufGqh9uiUNi9DyczcPSHV0i8BMev9Qg-Gw-N9p9Or1aVsT5DHo44866bWwZyIBdIfynL9GjWwn2OV0A2F-GJa3pKeaCrIAJXtVkOJJb-trQcf6DyWtxjrninO9/s1600/compq_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Speaking of the Nasdaq and S&P, if you look at measured move targets you see a convergence with 2024 highs, a good chance we will see a support test, and perhaps a buying opportunity.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhhuhD33T_1tpTfbPbgocBCkyZ_UekSF5CaMKTpLbqzfnjNHzh56J3kSX_wdYJPZMfk_ovgC2USYQGTQBq3_dEmkRMw-kURGv2pxJcztORemzloB_72ZwFMUop1eCApeQa6gjzoT4tfXHBs1TUNfw03NJEu5Jt6WLvmYfHVh2k7wzB8L4ikuWB/s1600/spx_mar30w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhhuhD33T_1tpTfbPbgocBCkyZ_UekSF5CaMKTpLbqzfnjNHzh56J3kSX_wdYJPZMfk_ovgC2USYQGTQBq3_dEmkRMw-kURGv2pxJcztORemzloB_72ZwFMUop1eCApeQa6gjzoT4tfXHBs1TUNfw03NJEu5Jt6WLvmYfHVh2k7wzB8L4ikuWB/s1600/spx_mar30w.png"/></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBxt0fxd8mRyAydrhjdL9bnTYDnm5ey0YMGpnUEsRKPB78-VSFH62ImKWjKFS1obeWxD16rv3VzfqXleGxtC5U6eQkCqdcpl0lz61aKSH1o8v1W-vCzNaPS_XKRO2qM-1mEMoZ9c5EHNrMRZdqDLYvBIjft1ixoQHnroxiuYwcdEfCXkSjiCne/s1600/compq_mar30w.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBxt0fxd8mRyAydrhjdL9bnTYDnm5ey0YMGpnUEsRKPB78-VSFH62ImKWjKFS1obeWxD16rv3VzfqXleGxtC5U6eQkCqdcpl0lz61aKSH1o8v1W-vCzNaPS_XKRO2qM-1mEMoZ9c5EHNrMRZdqDLYvBIjft1ixoQHnroxiuYwcdEfCXkSjiCne/s1600/compq_mar30w.png"/></a></div> <p>And such a test is playing out in the Dow Industrial Average now - time to buy?</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFuTuLT4Kq_IVoAKpVbfSCom44x5naOw0gazXhSc9Zy_17h9BKougkcVZQCUMevKw8MN9cn9sHpPL5xxDKUODYVj9sSPbKBEhGmr4NhH7JVUH9S57aXhebviz1CemERhTAJ33RRQ_HmLjhaRultKC-I0aRLGye_2w7x9elrt89ZZf6EuSRc5ic/s1600/djia_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFuTuLT4Kq_IVoAKpVbfSCom44x5naOw0gazXhSc9Zy_17h9BKougkcVZQCUMevKw8MN9cn9sHpPL5xxDKUODYVj9sSPbKBEhGmr4NhH7JVUH9S57aXhebviz1CemERhTAJ33RRQ_HmLjhaRultKC-I0aRLGye_2w7x9elrt89ZZf6EuSRc5ic/s1600/djia_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin wasn't able to deliver on its last 'buy' signal, but it's offering another one now on today's higher volume accumulation.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4sS3jCCpD58e7nH16Qtnuc8mZqjD29rujT-Ce6xGU2Yf1LgSAaY_zCtdkeYTkzWXh0M3cgjTPrS_kNPBpmujuj0NBnt2fOIbqM7a0WVGXwbKLtlnPR2ZKpubMCVNDT7QHf2u9ibevXg1aXiToHJrH6v-u-JpicVMR5FtVGilinKCPmj9O2Hlz/s1600/btcusd_m30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4sS3jCCpD58e7nH16Qtnuc8mZqjD29rujT-Ce6xGU2Yf1LgSAaY_zCtdkeYTkzWXh0M3cgjTPrS_kNPBpmujuj0NBnt2fOIbqM7a0WVGXwbKLtlnPR2ZKpubMCVNDT7QHf2u9ibevXg1aXiToHJrH6v-u-JpicVMR5FtVGilinKCPmj9O2Hlz/s1600/btcusd_m30.png"/></a></div> <p>On the flip side, Semiconductors took a big hit and having reached its measured move target upside, it now will be looking for a test of 6,400 support.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv89e6bP7DqXrlSCLfmCfG_ZLg4DrxLVC5Uw9OLNasfwwJYWM7SKocPj2u5dHzhCvv0-O86Ae2wwNI074CrHGGmt1dhXkRl515b2J6IzsDlwm9JX2FT-mWwSX9dI8ZYwrd0b9eHqwWfJLacu7q_J5RtqimixYv668bh69KZ7l2s7npdJDK4wrw/s1600/sox_mar30.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv89e6bP7DqXrlSCLfmCfG_ZLg4DrxLVC5Uw9OLNasfwwJYWM7SKocPj2u5dHzhCvv0-O86Ae2wwNI074CrHGGmt1dhXkRl515b2J6IzsDlwm9JX2FT-mWwSX9dI8ZYwrd0b9eHqwWfJLacu7q_J5RtqimixYv668bh69KZ7l2s7npdJDK4wrw/s1600/sox_mar30.png"/></a></div> <p>Despite the bearishness outgoing bearishness in lead indices, we do have buying opportunities in Bitcoin, Russell 2000, and the Dow Industrial Average. There is a high chance of failure, but big opportunities come with big risk.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-10387750670323714322026-03-26T00:35:00.002+00:002026-03-26T00:35:25.589+00:00<p>It's hard to know what will come next as some markets work bounces off their 200-day MAs, while others struggle below it.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully managed a test of its 200-day MA before rallying, while also leaving a 'bear trap' at $245. Buyers who took advantage of $245 will be sitting pretty, although traders with a shorter time frame may wish to site this out. Today's test of the 20-day MA may instead offer a shorting opportunity, particularly if there is a gap down on Thursday's open. Technicals are slowly recovering, although the MACD trigger 'buy' is a weak signal given the crossover below the bullish zero line.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO99NelxXNuET5S7YajJrv9K0PzwkuYpRZFLPbC48DMt3MQs06XxJ9ANv-D5ekPvela0FIdKliRmRqZTCtDUIwtShU25ThpWqr1s2fZDd-dz3QOmybm2SqqLPM9RNn2GqKOVMe6dN0v5reHRbdsyoGh2YDqyjKsJdYjFqzSpHJtbA7FFoFusgu/s1600/iwm_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO99NelxXNuET5S7YajJrv9K0PzwkuYpRZFLPbC48DMt3MQs06XxJ9ANv-D5ekPvela0FIdKliRmRqZTCtDUIwtShU25ThpWqr1s2fZDd-dz3QOmybm2SqqLPM9RNn2GqKOVMe6dN0v5reHRbdsyoGh2YDqyjKsJdYjFqzSpHJtbA7FFoFusgu/s1600/iwm_mar25.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal weighted S&P managed a picture perfect test of its 200-day MA, but the bounce off the moving average is throwing some spike highs below 7,900 that leaves it vulnerable to another run at its 200-day MA. Technicals are net negative, although the index is starting to outperform against its weighted partner.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmPedPt350OFjRab_lh3K65L9pNS7M3mAvAiPqHY3EVSG2Th28Rzti3DZuhu2WW04nVrPkNi_DQN-mTjjGMrPpZ_yWaVMqqHU7hLu19BovbNVpWh6Fzqbf75KgvSu3iyW68jY1SFwZPV9Si1KVeSFTOOlL4LYhcYxX9nHUFMRLFAEkmbkKiSRV/s1600/SPXEW_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmPedPt350OFjRab_lh3K65L9pNS7M3mAvAiPqHY3EVSG2Th28Rzti3DZuhu2WW04nVrPkNi_DQN-mTjjGMrPpZ_yWaVMqqHU7hLu19BovbNVpWh6Fzqbf75KgvSu3iyW68jY1SFwZPV9Si1KVeSFTOOlL4LYhcYxX9nHUFMRLFAEkmbkKiSRV/s1600/SPXEW_mar25.png"/></a></div> <p>Where we have doubts is the regular S&P. The index undercut its 200-day MA last week and the proliferation of spike highs near this average points to supply issues. The index is feeling the pressure, although it still clings to support of the November swing low.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7CFEGif8DBNZWqTewEtgyA9QV8evJfYf3WeLkP9I4QqiTe1af6KLo7YLK6l2eAJE60zEHX3BKeUvPWX0xpT9_8B7Rar2mgJGooNqxJZpLbdvIzCYF8V6n_wffd4HpMvDOFWs8LuJES32krtJY9oTjnZldGB3L1nyPHkA-625-HlFoGT2qa0Ya/s1600/spx_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7CFEGif8DBNZWqTewEtgyA9QV8evJfYf3WeLkP9I4QqiTe1af6KLo7YLK6l2eAJE60zEHX3BKeUvPWX0xpT9_8B7Rar2mgJGooNqxJZpLbdvIzCYF8V6n_wffd4HpMvDOFWs8LuJES32krtJY9oTjnZldGB3L1nyPHkA-625-HlFoGT2qa0Ya/s1600/spx_mar25.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>Taking this a step further, the Nasdaq has sliced through both 200-day MA and November swing lows to leave what looks to be the start of a new bear market for the index. Technicals are net bearish, which adds to the pressure. Last November I had drawn a projected measured move target for the index down around 20.3K; a move that would place it around the 15% of historic weak action, altough ideally we want to see an 18% undercut of the 200-day MA to get a good buying signal that puts it in the 10% zone.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LlTcXJehQAs7YQOcJuyXT6K0JbvJbqsx9l3QaGF7KUc0ZJTltehJCYOARdv6VNuL3TpZwNvh2R9MWkdJ6Ymbq6Et8mBzn6iVK3L71SorsmtdE28qQTOKktADsyxoCtZJ2K1XLEJQrmDuRjebMdcbKbim_XswMi6Y9I1FSpoR4cQCTW0OjBQZ/s1600/compq_mar25.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LlTcXJehQAs7YQOcJuyXT6K0JbvJbqsx9l3QaGF7KUc0ZJTltehJCYOARdv6VNuL3TpZwNvh2R9MWkdJ6Ymbq6Et8mBzn6iVK3L71SorsmtdE28qQTOKktADsyxoCtZJ2K1XLEJQrmDuRjebMdcbKbim_XswMi6Y9I1FSpoR4cQCTW0OjBQZ/s1600/compq_mar25.png"/></a></div> <p>Another index at an inflection point is the Dow Industrials Average. It had successfully bounced off support of October lows having earlier lost its 200-day MA, but on the move back to the 200-day MA it has started to create spike highs that suggests sellers and shorts dominate on the test. If it can clear its 200-day MA it will offer a long trade opportunity, but it's running out of time to do this.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwMp7uHyIetGvzzlSa5A11swOHBxrcdJZraxq_cBbafHW4uB5kxw1WUGnem8G9OYPvVc8khhBiBuVGvIWCgOj6ecKhogXPAEr1IOuxxxW_cuttcBzwwlbLqqA5YXoV6P-QaRg3QrLfgwCZ965nbdVWC34eBmZ-Rzgwu_EwWEWwIbKjiqGTtjE-/s1600/indu_mar26.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwMp7uHyIetGvzzlSa5A11swOHBxrcdJZraxq_cBbafHW4uB5kxw1WUGnem8G9OYPvVc8khhBiBuVGvIWCgOj6ecKhogXPAEr1IOuxxxW_cuttcBzwwlbLqqA5YXoV6P-QaRg3QrLfgwCZ965nbdVWC34eBmZ-Rzgwu_EwWEWwIbKjiqGTtjE-/s1600/indu_mar26.png"/></a></div> <p>It's interesting to see so many indices test their 200-day MAs from above or below. Current action does feel like a significant moment for markets that will set the tone for the rest of the year. Current events favor bears, but markets have done relatively well to resist the political and economic damage.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72337799518444739372026-03-23T23:28:00.003+00:002026-03-23T23:41:44.492+00:00<p>It was an interesting finish to Friday; some indices successfully tested their 20-day MAs - others did not. Pure technical traders could have taken a pop on Friday in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) at their 200-day MAs, knowing that other lead indices were undercutting their 200-day MAs, but it would be a big ask in the age of Trump (unless you were insider trading). Well, markets reacted positively to the announcement that Trump wasn't going to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure, but over the course of the day the majority of market participants didn't believe him, and sellers returned in force.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed a picture perfect tag of the 200-day MA on Friday, but on Monday, the higher volume accumulation racked up by the close of business came with a sizable inverse spike.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYVIif8dUw8IH_kxl4n_ykQlJPe8Yw5-jC_CF3QoVcaAcKOQq3GFf9D6Pz3xMz3XcJt1WOLHkR29IqsIb5gRZKOSjdZs8Yk_e7cElXGHyMQ-5SOmPlpheBbThTGeMecLmfxBhbJsszF__z37VI9IQ5Gd-VKRqSOR8qZphQ1uA1paHhzabQ_cu/s1600/rut_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYVIif8dUw8IH_kxl4n_ykQlJPe8Yw5-jC_CF3QoVcaAcKOQq3GFf9D6Pz3xMz3XcJt1WOLHkR29IqsIb5gRZKOSjdZs8Yk_e7cElXGHyMQ-5SOmPlpheBbThTGeMecLmfxBhbJsszF__z37VI9IQ5Gd-VKRqSOR8qZphQ1uA1paHhzabQ_cu/s1600/rut_mar23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The S&P lost its 200-day MA during the middle of last week, and early buying on Monday looked like a recovery of the 200-day MA was going to happen. However, by the close of business, the index reversed its gains and undercut its 200-day MA once more. This is bad news for bulls.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4tO3xbz2Dr8foKfxPQN7seo9JcCFNdfxso6RsCdZY4bqxckydw59My0tS37y2BgCzhpYN4dO7ipbcFasi9gtr-ooAWf53daKz4Lh6eJkPZN4gGCSjB3CifwXMCkX45y33MOxUkynxqR-kmG_5-dWB-jEJDpZTCWt2FiMDq0epc0oh935H2B0b/s1600/spx_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4tO3xbz2Dr8foKfxPQN7seo9JcCFNdfxso6RsCdZY4bqxckydw59My0tS37y2BgCzhpYN4dO7ipbcFasi9gtr-ooAWf53daKz4Lh6eJkPZN4gGCSjB3CifwXMCkX45y33MOxUkynxqR-kmG_5-dWB-jEJDpZTCWt2FiMDq0epc0oh935H2B0b/s1600/spx_mar23.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The other side of this was the equal-weighted S&P, which closed Friday bang on its 200-day MA - rallied - and actually managed to not leave to large an overhead spike. It's a buying opportunity for a bounce, but a bounce which is likely to struggle once it gets to its 20-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUKOCsBoZQ0KKmfJ4SWLs6tJHubzpCZiYCWeIeaj_xS_f7mQcPgwQl6_UvQ3PF4AxSL1yV-pAuTv-I65O-GSKIV7kSF_lMHkspdP93nO3iIuBbg4jHz9GzX1bxqc2scnp3kp7ygYHFvlblwucmzuuHklob9kiQxFyjiTusC0fe1Bzp1k1b_ztZ/s1600/spxew_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUKOCsBoZQ0KKmfJ4SWLs6tJHubzpCZiYCWeIeaj_xS_f7mQcPgwQl6_UvQ3PF4AxSL1yV-pAuTv-I65O-GSKIV7kSF_lMHkspdP93nO3iIuBbg4jHz9GzX1bxqc2scnp3kp7ygYHFvlblwucmzuuHklob9kiQxFyjiTusC0fe1Bzp1k1b_ztZ/s1600/spxew_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq went a step further than the S&P and Russell 2000, undercutting not just its 200-day MA, but its trading range too. The loss of the November swing low initiated a new bear market for the index. Technicals are net negative, and the index is starting to underperform against the Russell 2000. Bad times ahead for this index?</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO_Q_g3NC_yIJ_TU9dDGMdb_1zUEmFPC5Hrq72Ul-hwe4TtNSfWorqWERpc6Y5SvYO5DmVi3exPMlDVR1zJe98X13Be6EGQF7E_CyGOdd8evAS1od-FO817Yw7T4B1jA-in2r454WM93m3A6OYZiaVsL7NjEZ7AHlP66-p4RDjmRoLuGXkRMKl/s1600/nas_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO_Q_g3NC_yIJ_TU9dDGMdb_1zUEmFPC5Hrq72Ul-hwe4TtNSfWorqWERpc6Y5SvYO5DmVi3exPMlDVR1zJe98X13Be6EGQF7E_CyGOdd8evAS1od-FO817Yw7T4B1jA-in2r454WM93m3A6OYZiaVsL7NjEZ7AHlP66-p4RDjmRoLuGXkRMKl/s1600/nas_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>Not helping is the failure of the Semiconductor Index to push above its 50-day MA. Technicals are mixed, but price action is shifting bearish. If there is a loss of 7,450, then shorts can be expected to pile in and drive things towards its 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB1sYnFNEAD776_qZdlgQWM9-hyJjvCIMwxonZp97tu3zQYAJhsqy057yQmQHC996q6dVud26qJfTkN0hzde6q8mXIZN7sCYBG5U29sX6QhDYVpJrGugT3V_0VsGNMtScf4JKJWh9vGLjoLeStQ_RLSJCdZWhzUWXSZmLsTmXQFr8LVYK5W-UJ/s1600/sox_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB1sYnFNEAD776_qZdlgQWM9-hyJjvCIMwxonZp97tu3zQYAJhsqy057yQmQHC996q6dVud26qJfTkN0hzde6q8mXIZN7sCYBG5U29sX6QhDYVpJrGugT3V_0VsGNMtScf4JKJWh9vGLjoLeStQ_RLSJCdZWhzUWXSZmLsTmXQFr8LVYK5W-UJ/s1600/sox_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>The Dow Industrials has yet to undercut its November swing low, but its treading on thin ice. The 200-day MA has been lost on net bearish indicators, and Monday's spike high shows supply is not too far away. If the Dow gives up 45,500 support it will start a new bear market for the index.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFE8hiCUVEA2S32uYipNs0OKtCcoXPGkE4yFoFbU2IPvFuS8ypUDsJttzQoemPPB1EBhz45w4eMcQo8fS8yTkR1p4CRt1OuVIPP2zdLGBETJYsvYBcjAgJJiGyIeS5rtJsFoMoutN1vqA3qBh8o7HsMZeSpep8Y0FkiMXJ6QgXHwEPx0OF9UCi/s1600/indu_mar23b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFE8hiCUVEA2S32uYipNs0OKtCcoXPGkE4yFoFbU2IPvFuS8ypUDsJttzQoemPPB1EBhz45w4eMcQo8fS8yTkR1p4CRt1OuVIPP2zdLGBETJYsvYBcjAgJJiGyIeS5rtJsFoMoutN1vqA3qBh8o7HsMZeSpep8Y0FkiMXJ6QgXHwEPx0OF9UCi/s1600/indu_mar23b.png"/></a></div> <p>Despite all of this, bulls have one asset that is moving in their favor, and that's Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has successfully defended its 50-day MA and today's gain sets up for the development of a right-hand base.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIg4yNKp6f2nP0pP7csJXwzh8t8U7GXAg2Sr8G2nWzoUVldobrylawsu-hBjtMwrULHjhOv1A9ltV2Acb8H5h561wRHkE34NWrisXANejW_V9lM8qm5rw6APfesrLGrfaHDwKY_AJVaqbPrugbitgRN-SrDUvwJ9DZNecpi56eP9WJCDcWAEco/s1600/btcusd_mar23.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIg4yNKp6f2nP0pP7csJXwzh8t8U7GXAg2Sr8G2nWzoUVldobrylawsu-hBjtMwrULHjhOv1A9ltV2Acb8H5h561wRHkE34NWrisXANejW_V9lM8qm5rw6APfesrLGrfaHDwKY_AJVaqbPrugbitgRN-SrDUvwJ9DZNecpi56eP9WJCDcWAEco/s1600/btcusd_mar23.png"/></a></div> <p>This week will be interesting. Trump's TACO decision is one markets are not expecting him to keep. Iran has little to lose by extending this war given neighboring countries have far more to lose (Iran having already lost so much already). The US has minimal physical vulnerability, and Israel has the means to defend itself, so there is little incentive for either of them to stop. In the middle of this, Arab nations will have decisions as to who to align with long term. If the US is unable to defend them, will they continue to host US bases? Will they move to appease Iran? What are the long term vulnerabilities to Israel from such (well funded) Arab nations experiencing the physical and economic brunt of this war? Markets are only *starting* to shape a new bear market, so the next question is whether this will be a bear market driven by a broader war in the Middle East.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-87096399791366965602026-03-18T22:35:43.646+00:002026-03-18T22:35:43.647+00:00<p>After yesterday, I was looking for big red candlesticks across indices, and today - they delivered. Those who took the opportunity to go short can place a stop at yesterday's close.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) experienced a higher volume distribution day on net bearish technicals. Today's loss finished on $245/6 support, but another day's worth of selling will open up for a test of the 200-day MA and maybe a potential follow through move down to $228.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhITPNq5s4YSwQ52aYynHQbTbwWNwtViXqRvYLzMLNeYaaiuVVJWjFAT0Cltf3kI5eZ33iNkNJ2Jycww7Fs5R5NxLDt15keHuTb2uIhO_YJyKYuxNBq1_0wUd1tZ6JOH2IeUyVAVzMX-RoDRmYGcRF17Y2J_YFe21nI6qBdm-KMHd4xeaHVO7vQ/s1600/IWM_Mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhITPNq5s4YSwQ52aYynHQbTbwWNwtViXqRvYLzMLNeYaaiuVVJWjFAT0Cltf3kI5eZ33iNkNJ2Jycww7Fs5R5NxLDt15keHuTb2uIhO_YJyKYuxNBq1_0wUd1tZ6JOH2IeUyVAVzMX-RoDRmYGcRF17Y2J_YFe21nI6qBdm-KMHd4xeaHVO7vQ/s1600/IWM_Mar18.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is back down at 7,800 and it's looking like further losses are on the cards. The 200-day MA should be an initial test, but a measured move target would open up 7,400, that is also near the November swing low. Convergences are good, unless you are a bull.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix81b9oMHNIrY0HRVvmPEJ9EkhbF7DiHEQJmvsLLBpl1ANxhaFHqVn3Q9PKkl6B-HuyYGkB2Bg8OtT8RkssiIzEQFcH4m7bDmL13otqNABGLL2IU3Qo8NX3uttbEsXRJm7YzeDyiNDjVKZdwR5KUMEubJibCCfwvvFyPK4Zcqn6eY9q9z0HCi6/s1600/spxew_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix81b9oMHNIrY0HRVvmPEJ9EkhbF7DiHEQJmvsLLBpl1ANxhaFHqVn3Q9PKkl6B-HuyYGkB2Bg8OtT8RkssiIzEQFcH4m7bDmL13otqNABGLL2IU3Qo8NX3uttbEsXRJm7YzeDyiNDjVKZdwR5KUMEubJibCCfwvvFyPK4Zcqn6eY9q9z0HCi6/s1600/spxew_mar18.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The S&P is testing its 200-day MA on a nasty sell off. The best case scenario is a spike low, so if this sells off in morning trading but starts attracting buyers after lunch, then it may be worth a long trade - particularly if we get a spike low and a close above the 200-day MA.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2HtuoQsakN_0cvu1l2erNJgMGxhSqzmNX-wWVB2jwETy5HkWT9xzskQr9Z9lXTToyhzA6ClyyBHlUPrPhKw-N2A-q_kKsXl6Y1cjPZhuFbP_Kv-xpzuuSVIkK5JM5LrbIzx3c071yq5rxmZ_iUU-0zZDXOMATgrOaHtuJ_fmhZ5FNNAFk3_MX/s1600/spx_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2HtuoQsakN_0cvu1l2erNJgMGxhSqzmNX-wWVB2jwETy5HkWT9xzskQr9Z9lXTToyhzA6ClyyBHlUPrPhKw-N2A-q_kKsXl6Y1cjPZhuFbP_Kv-xpzuuSVIkK5JM5LrbIzx3c071yq5rxmZ_iUU-0zZDXOMATgrOaHtuJ_fmhZ5FNNAFk3_MX/s1600/spx_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>Same applies for the Nasdaq.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihSCR3VNz83av3uEg19aUBTl4hpvpURTNq9BZNGVyte_ux3JsWsdnntou3hY2Ki8U8SXWSZPdRRcASZxhSK1ZHL7lktSle75x7PjQN2qfQmY0etzdcrYL-JpdaFot9tAYgas9JwTVehFbXxrAcuFaQxdQNLIxqr4K1HPCzoK6vomcrVfJ5IH4/s1600/compq_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihSCR3VNz83av3uEg19aUBTl4hpvpURTNq9BZNGVyte_ux3JsWsdnntou3hY2Ki8U8SXWSZPdRRcASZxhSK1ZHL7lktSle75x7PjQN2qfQmY0etzdcrYL-JpdaFot9tAYgas9JwTVehFbXxrAcuFaQxdQNLIxqr4K1HPCzoK6vomcrVfJ5IH4/s1600/compq_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>Although I was disappointed with Bitcoin as I really was expecting some sizable upside follow through, instead, we got a red candlestick that threatens to undercut the steady work buyers had clocked in the past couple of weeks. This may morph into a scrappy base that could last months, which at best, is a hold.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifdawh_XOAjYtXT8rhyphenhyphenuV_FhdX-6QZw73JNCs44IPx5WH4gywjSx6faOZLT_0at_1YTPmj_Yun3aVbHV5u7LQQrzrEsRxaRVHd9py9KFLz0Ydjk08WOsScMzmL8HVdFB3hjFMlMEyVuX31EATk36IrVBIwu-VP2tUKVRTkVEGyCqwyLXb5BfQR/s1600/btcusd_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifdawh_XOAjYtXT8rhyphenhyphenuV_FhdX-6QZw73JNCs44IPx5WH4gywjSx6faOZLT_0at_1YTPmj_Yun3aVbHV5u7LQQrzrEsRxaRVHd9py9KFLz0Ydjk08WOsScMzmL8HVdFB3hjFMlMEyVuX31EATk36IrVBIwu-VP2tUKVRTkVEGyCqwyLXb5BfQR/s1600/btcusd_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>The index to watch is the Dow Industrial Average. The index was the first to undercut its 200-day MA, which is warning for indices currently testing their 200-day MAs. Watch what happens tomorrow. If we are to see spike lows for indices testing 200-day MAs, then this has to make a comeback tomorrow.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-M8o-N1o-ZK-U4a2k4AdXBtL-dLllUmV4hzCKTN9h3yZbqU5Mor4nenT9oXuI8niiSTpQ77hNU6DYlbFcb99qlNvrQHVscgJx9yB_a5Jih_UyKCQa0-bYYm3Nz-QTE9c2OJe-jX8_cuLO1SxxpAmbVPIvjPtB-ocBjcUAGALmT2fyLX5kBPnW/s1600/indu_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-M8o-N1o-ZK-U4a2k4AdXBtL-dLllUmV4hzCKTN9h3yZbqU5Mor4nenT9oXuI8niiSTpQ77hNU6DYlbFcb99qlNvrQHVscgJx9yB_a5Jih_UyKCQa0-bYYm3Nz-QTE9c2OJe-jX8_cuLO1SxxpAmbVPIvjPtB-ocBjcUAGALmT2fyLX5kBPnW/s1600/indu_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>If there is a shorting opportunity to look at, then it could be Semiconductors. A bearish cloud-cover candlestick at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs, with a couple of spike high doji last week (denoting supply), on weak technicals, says short...</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn8Su3GRSo0RumnPaJkYzKo1vtMtl2JKxRwzOrIB6q5BM6ipERcONGFT-0J912WNzzNc3EsPKuYw7LjTUQxAGc_FiwijkFQoiHL5Rt365CFw3lbWy8GnkAnBLQjeytRz6mQHQXOdYF65mU01_xYSOa2Q768qOjSoKYjroILu8DyLcBszQfM0aF/s1600/sox_mar18.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn8Su3GRSo0RumnPaJkYzKo1vtMtl2JKxRwzOrIB6q5BM6ipERcONGFT-0J912WNzzNc3EsPKuYw7LjTUQxAGc_FiwijkFQoiHL5Rt365CFw3lbWy8GnkAnBLQjeytRz6mQHQXOdYF65mU01_xYSOa2Q768qOjSoKYjroILu8DyLcBszQfM0aF/s1600/sox_mar18.png"/></a></div> <p>With the war in Iran not looking like it will finish soon, traders are now having to position themselves for the long haul, and that appears to be from the sidelines.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-72060982847742874772026-03-17T22:07:02.506+00:002026-03-17T22:07:02.507+00:00<p>Not Good. Indices remain under pressure after selling into support has only resulted in a weak bounce. It won't take much to tip the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 back into the red.</p> <p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the canary in the coal mine. Today was a second narrow doji after Monday's. Volume was down, reflecting the disinterest by buyers. Technicals are net negative and last week's gap down has finally closed. Don't be surprised if we see a solid red candlestick before the week is out. Even if there is a rally, the 20-day MA will be there to add its own pressure.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Bnps8o6787nZGsgj5lko-c_V4uFScA3njjutf5z98MojGZKFX1Bdq7-tmyTkegQp5N0gqW9H9VnnQKm7FfKQWiVKOVRgATZ4GPqJqrv4Nai97tIxbNCc3GqFi8XG7xu_cnQ-FGXTpzg2qSgP_BAGtvR5YYSmBx2B6Ho3puJLEGym5vHe5CDT/s1600/iwm_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Bnps8o6787nZGsgj5lko-c_V4uFScA3njjutf5z98MojGZKFX1Bdq7-tmyTkegQp5N0gqW9H9VnnQKm7FfKQWiVKOVRgATZ4GPqJqrv4Nai97tIxbNCc3GqFi8XG7xu_cnQ-FGXTpzg2qSgP_BAGtvR5YYSmBx2B6Ho3puJLEGym5vHe5CDT/s1600/iwm_mar17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <a name='more'></a><p>The equal-weighted S&P is doing a little better with the rally, but given this has come off a cleaner trend break, it may find it more of a struggle to attract buyers.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwj3lnNVeGhidYFHSlEes9G_WYF-OZaZ1hm-kTY0PAwYJbJxIeFFKu2dsyRAr9AbaKoJ6OcDRZLdvJbDBlQJhIk-9XoF5c6dmLLLFERJIkgWJeGbxkOKIZ42YqAWUec3ipTaDe6YGXajgp8zGAq968-UZcZChdVMjB2ZZ02DI7rMs46dV2-0J5/s1600/spxew_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwj3lnNVeGhidYFHSlEes9G_WYF-OZaZ1hm-kTY0PAwYJbJxIeFFKu2dsyRAr9AbaKoJ6OcDRZLdvJbDBlQJhIk-9XoF5c6dmLLLFERJIkgWJeGbxkOKIZ42YqAWUec3ipTaDe6YGXajgp8zGAq968-UZcZChdVMjB2ZZ02DI7rMs46dV2-0J5/s1600/spxew_mar17.png"/></a></div> <script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6488120509886642" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block; text-align:center;" data-ad-layout="in-article" data-ad-format="fluid" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6488120509886642" data-ad-slot="5539773894"></ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); </script> <p>The weighted S&P has been running along declining resistance since the middle of February and with the squeeze in play we will soon have a decision time with its 200-day MA. Technicals are net bearish, but there is another support level at 6,550.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8BVBhEQqvWSslwktZmnZtrza4P5aIj0hi9vJL0fGeiOWkLArCfk3B2M33U0Y4q6OxkQoGKwr6g1Ric7YDLX-2pVQifQnK0AFaKDEP8RElFUhdQprF8w66h73r5b3QmLiexBMspm_iJND0MO6OjpZOHmBlCzapWatlRVcnFZIveUnkBu1PaeRU/s1600/spx_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8BVBhEQqvWSslwktZmnZtrza4P5aIj0hi9vJL0fGeiOWkLArCfk3B2M33U0Y4q6OxkQoGKwr6g1Ric7YDLX-2pVQifQnK0AFaKDEP8RElFUhdQprF8w66h73r5b3QmLiexBMspm_iJND0MO6OjpZOHmBlCzapWatlRVcnFZIveUnkBu1PaeRU/s1600/spx_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>The Nasdaq is also feeling the squeeze from selling pressure. It has already tested its 200-day MA, but today's doji has failed to break declining resistance. There is a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and the MACD has flat-lined, so while bearish, there is hope - but 'hope' is never a good thing to depend on when trading. As a trade, it's an easy short, but if it can rally in the morning then an afternoon long trade might be the correct trade.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TnX0_KzhEc0El6q7C9KiBWtp7Ew2ba9ZYu9osPxu6u_hsSWN11bQJgF-XnA-q1hxOv-URCKgvm_4JZUlz3mvgdB9zFv-UFNSWTTr8JgmEyHuK5wJUnNqtzgoktysSsAdOWZ3y7fG212mbenc7cylUCKpCsLfvGGjeRGwgBkPCptG3Oj_K21b/s1600/compq_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TnX0_KzhEc0El6q7C9KiBWtp7Ew2ba9ZYu9osPxu6u_hsSWN11bQJgF-XnA-q1hxOv-URCKgvm_4JZUlz3mvgdB9zFv-UFNSWTTr8JgmEyHuK5wJUnNqtzgoktysSsAdOWZ3y7fG212mbenc7cylUCKpCsLfvGGjeRGwgBkPCptG3Oj_K21b/s1600/compq_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Interestingly, the Nasdaq Bullish Percents might be staging a double bottom, which might give bulls something to work with, but it will need more than a series of day-gains for this to gain traction.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_8XjaSoGJGa8Z1J7v30xq1RN4HKe7PfHwqgDePbI5hS5xvKxfwyMkg98he83eOqX9zBoWhy0U_KjFRVLfIne2LvAp1hLoJvzo6GPTWQw9-IIroJHCvON3vGlCYWo2dWnY6iViB16kiiYS2BB5ZHiTfvYlScnH6mXg_P02Imhs-5ApklbJK_Dz/s1600/bpcompq_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_8XjaSoGJGa8Z1J7v30xq1RN4HKe7PfHwqgDePbI5hS5xvKxfwyMkg98he83eOqX9zBoWhy0U_KjFRVLfIne2LvAp1hLoJvzo6GPTWQw9-IIroJHCvON3vGlCYWo2dWnY6iViB16kiiYS2BB5ZHiTfvYlScnH6mXg_P02Imhs-5ApklbJK_Dz/s1600/bpcompq_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Bitcoin has edged higher, holding the 50-day MA. The crypto is enjoying a series of low key gains that could be called 'modest' - not something you would ascribe to a cryptocurrency - but this is bullish.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2gbwtTq3NcfPgen4GsOS-r0La2eoS6dmh0NxdD2FzTcjqujR9EGH5jGQpG7xn6gDmtdRBdT1OoP_9D3endhf6YGoZgW9Pig37fzNGctW8GXOpwdLvN0i-0pGJQVQK2jDo90lO0PaSN46fHsrjacX1j1y3C-q9sNF-YLjtwLvtyMrkapZaSOnC/s1600/btcuas_mar17.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2gbwtTq3NcfPgen4GsOS-r0La2eoS6dmh0NxdD2FzTcjqujR9EGH5jGQpG7xn6gDmtdRBdT1OoP_9D3endhf6YGoZgW9Pig37fzNGctW8GXOpwdLvN0i-0pGJQVQK2jDo90lO0PaSN46fHsrjacX1j1y3C-q9sNF-YLjtwLvtyMrkapZaSOnC/s1600/btcuas_mar17.png"/></a></div> <p>Staying short side (with the exception of Bitcoin) looks like the trade of choice. Those looking to time a long-term investment still need to wait for a substantial undercut of the 200-day MA, and we are long way from that. If you are on the sidelines, then that's probably the best place to be at the moment.</p> --- <p><a href="http://twitter.com/fallondpicks">Follow Me on Twitter</a></p> <div align="center"><p><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1V_9h3vekAPeQe0hOV4NrWH-01fNKqG4_wGdYpMk_j10/pub?w=480&amp;h=420"><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1cWdu_AloH0bkcswjo3FATkVZuNQN3zLSqOaSYkQfADk/pub?w=480&amph=420" /><img src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/d/1IupRi6u_rFUV372W8Rva5gPhAlOogdH-B1KcXiBbVLE/pub?w=480&amp;h=360"><br /> </div> </p> <p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p> <!-- Google tag (gtag.js) --> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-5XQE1F117Q"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-5XQE1F117Q'); </script> <div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.com