In the video above, I take a technical look at five of those leaders—Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon. Each stock is higher by at least 3.45% on the day, comfortably outpacing the broader market. Nvidia is the smallest gainer of the group, while Meta leads the charge with an impressive 6.58% advance.

While today's price action has the group back in favor, the technical outlook is not the same for each stock. Some are breaking above key resistance levels, others are testing important support or approaching major technical hurdles. Those differences can have a meaningful impact on the next move.

In the video, I walk through each stock one by one, outlining the technical bias, identifying the key risk levels that traders should be watching, and highlighting the upside and downside targets that could shape the next leg in the price action.

The initial pullback found support near the broken 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April high at 1.1524, but the ensuing rebound ran into resistance at 1.15356—the high from Thursday's trading. That failure encouraged another wave of selling, with the pair now testing an important swing area surrounding the 1.1500 level between 1.14989 and 1.15060.

That swing area is now the next key barometer. A sustained move below it would give sellers greater control and open the door for a test of the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.14715. That moving average also aligns with a former ceiling from mid-June, making it an important downside target. Sellers looking for additional momentum will want to see the price break and stay below both the swing area and the 100-hour moving average.

On the topside, buyers need to reclaim the 38.2% retracement at 1.1524 to shift the short-term bias back in their favor. Doing so would target 1.15356, with a break above that level putting the focus back on the 100-day moving average at 1.15677. Staying below the retracement, however, keeps sellers holding the near-term technical edge.

The selling pressure pushed the pair back below the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the early May high to the late June low at 0.7022. That break also took the price beneath a swing area defined by highs from June 15 through June 23, giving sellers additional confidence and leading to a stronger downside extension.

The move lower accelerated through the European morning, with the pair falling below the nearly converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6991 before finding support at 0.6984. However, the bearish momentum could not be sustained. Buyers stepped back in and lifted the price above both hourly moving averages, turning that area back into an important near-term support zone.

Going forward, those converged hourly moving averages will be the key barometer for the short-term bias. As long as the price remains above them, buyers maintain a slight edge and can target a move back toward the 0.7020 to 0.7027 swing area. A break above that zone would shift the focus back toward the 100-day moving average, while a move back below the hourly moving averages would hand the sellers back the short-term advantage. Traders expect more selling with a shift in the bias more to the downside on a 2nd break below those moving averages today.

The USDCHF has moved higher today, rebounding from support at the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the late-May low at 0.8049. That bounce carried the pair to 0.8087 during the European session before extending further to a new intraday high at 0.8113. The latest push has the price testing a key swing area between 0.8108 and 0.8120. Just above that zone sits the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.8123, making it the next important hurdle for buyers.

Price action over the past week has been choppy. The pair initially broke above the 0.8139–0.8151 swing area, signaling a more bullish bias, but buyers quickly lost control as broad U.S. dollar selling—driven in part by the sharp USDJPY reversal following suspected intervention—pulled the pair back lower. That decline briefly pushed the price below the 38.2% retracement at 0.8049, but the selling momentum faded almost as quickly as it developed, and the pair has since returned to its familiar back-and-forth trading range.

Looking ahead, the technical picture remains largely neutral unless one side can force a breakout. On the upside, buyers need to clear the 100-hour moving average at 0.8123, followed by the 200-hour moving average and the top of the 0.8139–0.8151 swing area. A sustained move above those levels would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for a retest of last week's high near 0.8206.

On the downside, sellers still need to regain control by breaking back below the 38.2% retracement at 0.8049. Until either the upside or downside barriers give way, the pair is likely to remain trapped in a battle between support near 0.8050 and resistance around 0.8123.

The USDCAD moved lower last week, breaking below both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages and shifting the near-term technical bias in favor of the sellers. The decline also pushed through the mid-July low near 1.4000, reaching a session low of 1.3990. However, that move stalled just short of the key 38.2% retracement of the rally from the May 1 low to the June high, which comes in at 1.39812. That Fibonacci level remains an important line in the sand. If sellers are to gain stronger control, they need to break below it and, more importantly, stay below it. They were unable to do so last week.

Friday's trading saw the pair rebound before those gains faded, with the price reversing lower and closing back near the 1.4000 level. In today's trading, early Asia-Pacific selling again found support at 1.40005, prompting another bounce. However, buyers have so far been unable to reclaim the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.4051. To improve the short-term outlook, buyers need to move above that level and then push through the 200-hour moving average at 1.40709.

For now, the battle lines are clearly defined. Support is holding near 1.4000, while resistance is capped by the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.4051. Traders will be watching closely for a break beyond either boundary, with momentum likely to determine the next directional move.

For more details from a technical perspective, click on the video above.

The USD is mostly higher vs the major currencies with one exception, the JPY. The USD is lower vs the JPY as the pair continued its fall last week after reported intervention, and cracked below the 200 day MA for the first time since October 2025. 

The Bank of Japan's July money market data suggests Japan conducted approximately ¥5.3 trillion in currency intervention on Friday to support the yen. The reported liquidity shortfall of around ¥11.4 trillion is consistent with a large-scale intervention operation. The intervention was notable because it appears to have been a rare coordinated effort between Japan's Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Treasury Department—the first such joint yen-buying operation since 2011.

The USDJPY is down an additional -0.58% (lower USD). The EURUSD is near unchanged. The GBPUSD is lower by -0.10% (higher USD) to kickstart the new trading day, week and even month.  

IN middle east news:

Diplomacy is back on the table

• President Trump said planned U.S. military action was called off in favor of diplomacy and announced that talks with Iran are expected to begin Monday.
• However, Iran publicly denied that formal negotiations with the United States have been scheduled, creating uncertainty over whether meaningful talks will actually occur.

2. Strait of Hormuz remains the key issue

• The biggest focus continues to be reopening commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran has acknowledged discussions with Oman regarding shipping arrangements, but there is no finalized agreement.
• Shipping traffic remains well below normal, and isolated security incidents continue to pose risks.

3. Israel remains cautious

• Israeli officials continue to indicate they are prepared to act if they believe Iran resumes its nuclear or missile programs.
• Even if U.S.-Iran diplomacy advances, Israel is signaling it will retain freedom to conduct military operations if necessary.

4. Oil markets are reacting positively

• Oil prices fell sharply as traders reduced the probability of an immediate military escalation.
• The market is beginning to price in the possibility that shipping disruptions could ease if diplomacy gains traction, although a sizable geopolitical risk premium remains.

Crude oil is trading at $79.10, down -$5.54 on the day. 

New York Fed President John Williams reinforced the Federal Reserve's current policy stance, saying the July decision left interest rates "well positioned" to return inflation to the Fed's 2% target. He stressed that the Fed remains fully committed to price stability and will act if inflation fails to move sustainably back toward target, while expressing confidence that inflation pressures should continue to ease over time. Williams acknowledged uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict but expects any inflationary impact to moderate. On market expectations, he emphasized that while the Fed closely watches market pricing because it provides valuable information, policymakers are not obligated to validate or follow those expectations. Overall, the comments were consistent with Williams' typically centrist approach, offering no new policy signal and leaving future decisions dependent on incoming economic data and evolving geopolitical developments.

US stocks are mixed changed in pre-market futures trading:

• Dow is the biggest gainer with a rise of 456 points
• S&P is up 25 points
• Nasdaq s down -26 points. 

In the US debt market, yields have cracked to the downside:

• 2-year 4.237%, -5.3 basis points. 
• 5-year 4.389%, -7.1 basis points
• 10-year 4.677%, -6.7 basis points
• 30-year 5.224%, -5.08 points

At the close:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +278.05 points (+0.53%) to 52,491.26
• S&P 500 (SPX): +52.17 points (+0.70%) to 7,489.81
• Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): +251.68 points (+1.00%) to 25,373.85
• Russell 2000 (RUT): -14.76 points (-0.50%) to 2,931.34
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX): +167.85 points (+0.60%) to 28,274.20

While the price action was undeniably positive, the technical picture remains mixed. The S&P 500 has managed to shift to a marginally bullish bias, suggesting buyers are beginning to regain control. The Nasdaq, however, still carries a marginally bearish technical outlook. Although today's rally was encouraging, the index still has key technical hurdles to clear before the bias turns more decisively in favor of the bulls.

In the video above, I break down the technical outlook for both indices, explain why their signals are diverging, and highlight the key levels that will determine whether buyers can build on this week's momentum or whether sellers reassert control in the week ahead.

That test proved to be a turning point. Buyers stepped back in aggressively, driving the pair back above yesterday's highs and through the 1.34797 swing level. The break has pushed the GBPUSD to its highest level since July 16, giving buyers more control from a technical perspective.

With 1.34797 now broken, the next upside target comes in near 1.3517, followed by the July high at 1.35573.

The rebound highlights the importance of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages as a technical barometer. By defending that support, buyers kept the broader bullish bias intact heading into the new trading week. As long as the pair remains above those moving averages, the technical advantage stays with the bulls. A move back below them would be needed to shift control back toward the sellers.

The initial selloff pushed the pair back below a key swing area between 1.1471 and 1.1482, a former resistance zone that had capped rallies since mid-June. That break triggered additional downside momentum, sending the pair to a session low of 1.1456.

The move lower, however, quickly unraveled.

Buyers stepped back in, driving the price back above the 1.1471–1.1482 zone and turning what looked like a bearish breakout into a failed break—a development that often forces sellers to cover and attracts fresh buyers. The subsequent move back above the 1.1500 level has added to the improving bullish tone.

Even so, the buyers still have work to do.

The rally has yet to clear the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April high to the June low, which comes in at 1.1524. A sustained move above that level, followed by a break of yesterday's high at 1.15356, would strengthen the bullish case and shift the focus toward the falling 100-day moving average at 1.15675.

On the other hand, if sellers defend the 38.2% retracement once again, the market could settle back into a familiar battleground. Support would be defined by the old ceiling-turned-floor between 1.1471 and 1.1482, while resistance remains at the 38.2% retracement near 1.1524. Until one side breaks those boundaries with conviction, traders may be left waiting for the next momentum-driven move.

Momentum then shifted dramatically. Helped by the FOMC reaction, the sharp decline in the USDJPY, broad U.S. dollar selling, and stronger equity markets, the AUDUSD rebounded aggressively. The pair climbed back above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, tilting the short-term bias back to the upside, and extended above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May high to the late-June low at 0.7022. The rally reached 0.70435, stopping just 9 pips shy of the 100-day moving average at 0.7052.

Today's trading has brought another twist. Renewed dollar buying pushed the pair lower, but sellers were unable to force a break below the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.6987. The rising 100-hour moving average at 0.69815 also helped underpin the price. Since then, the AUDUSD has bounced and is now once again testing the key 38.2% retracement level at 0.7022.

So yes, it has been a rollercoaster week. However, despite all the twists and turns, the technical picture still leans modestly in favor of the bulls as long as the pair remains above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages. A sustained move above the 38.2% retracement at 0.7022 would strengthen that bullish case and have traders targeting the 100-day moving average at 0.7052. A break above that level would hand buyers even greater control.

On the other hand, a move back below the 200- and 100-hour moving averages would shift the bias back toward the sellers and signal that another leg lower may be underway.

For now, keep your hands inside the car—the ride remains volatile, but the key technical levels continue to provide the roadmap.

Today, yields are climbing again, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 6.2 basis points and the 10-year yield higher by 6.7 basis points. This time, the U.S. dollar is responding to the rise in yields, and the USDCAD is participating in the move.

From a technical perspective, yesterday's decline brought the pair within striking distance of the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the early May low. The price bottomed at 1.3990, just 9 pips above the retracement target at 1.39812. The inability to reach, let alone break, that key Fibonacci level was a disappointment for sellers looking to gain stronger control. Until that level is broken, the recent decline remains a normal correction within what has been the broader bullish trend.

Today's rebound has lifted the pair to 1.4057, leaving it just 14 pips below the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.4071. The 200-hour moving average sits just above at 1.4078, creating an important resistance zone.

For buyers to take back control, they need to push the price above both moving averages and, just as importantly, keep it there. A sustained move above those levels would shift the technical bias back to the upside and have traders targeting this week's high near 1.4130. That level also marks the bottom of a key floor/ceiling zone between 1.41297 and 1.41488. Earlier this week, the pair failed against that resistance, giving sellers the green light to rotate lower.

For sellers, there is still work to do. They need to force the price back below the recent lows at 1.4003 and 1.3990 and, ultimately, break below the 38.2% retracement at 1.39812. Until that happens, the broader technical advantage remains tilted toward the buyers despite this week's corrective decline.

TGIF. The USD is higher to start the US session which retraces some of the declines seen yesterday after the sharp run lower helped by potential intervention in the JPY (Selling USD, Buying JPY). In the video above I will run through the technical levels in play for 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - and explain the bias, the risks and the targets of each as the North American session begins. 

The biggest catalyst yesterday in the forex was the sharp fall in the USDJPY. Today, the Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, as widely expected, while maintaining that it remains prepared to raise rates further if inflation and economic conditions warrant. The decision itself was largely a non-event, but it came less than 24 hours after suspected Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market triggered a sharp drop in USDJPY from near 163.32 to a low near 158.00 (and just above the key 200 day MA at 157.93  currently). Rather than building on that move, the dollar recovered following the BOJ decision as the lack of an immediate rate hike reminded markets that Japan's yield disadvantage versus the U.S. remains the level of rates in each country which favors the carry trade. 

The market's reaction highlights an important point: intervention can disrupt speculative positioning and slow the pace of yen depreciation, but it may not change the underlying interest-rate fundamentals. Unless the BOJ accelerates its tightening cycle or U.S. yields move meaningfully lower, rallies in the yen may prove temporary. Yesterday's intervention likely reset speculative positioning and served as a warning to traders, but today's price action shows that monetary policy—not intervention—will likely determine the longer-term direction of USDJPY.

Technically, the 100 day MA is at 160.07 will remain a barometer although the price action today was volatile around the level . That level, the swing low from July 3 at 160.44 and the broken 38.2% of the trend move up from the May low at 160.56 are now upside targets. The high for the day did extend 160.84 which was the 50% of the range from yesterday's trading.  

Yield are higher today across the yield curve with a modest flattening:

• 2 year yield 4.264% up 3.5 basis points
• 5 year yield 4.403%, up 3.0 basis points
• 10 year 4.685%, up 2.3 basis points
• 30 year 5.221%, up 1.4 basis points

Fed speakers will be in focus today as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are all expected to discuss their decisions to dissent at this week's FOMC meeting, where each favored a 25-basis-point rate hike. While their comments are likely to reinforce concerns that inflation remains too elevated and upside risks persist, they should also be viewed through the lens of Chair Kevin Warsh's new Federal Reserve.  Warsh spoke on how the market is doing the tightening but did not favor a tightening.  I can see why there could be dissent given the historical precedent to normally do so. 

Stocks are higher 

• Nasdaq up 125 points
• S&P up 1.62 points
• Dow up 173 points. 

For the NZDUSD, today's rally has pushed the pair above both the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, while also breaking above last week's high at 0.5871. The pair is now testing an important swing area between 0.5881 and 0.5886 that has capped rallies since May. A sustained move above that zone would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for additional upside. On the downside, the first close-risk level comes in at 0.58705, followed by the broken 61.8% retracement at 0.58526.

The AUDUSD has also strengthened, moving above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May high to the late-June low at 0.7022. That level is significant because it rejected advances on three separate occasions earlier this month—twice holding as resistance and once allowing only a brief break before sellers regained control. With that hurdle now cleared, buyers will want to see the price remain above 0.7022 and build momentum toward the 100-day moving average at 0.70516. The pair has not traded above that moving average since June 15. A break and sustained move above it would shift the focus to the 50% retracement of the May-June decline at 0.7071.

The latest leg lower began after the corrective rebound from the June 20 low stalled at the former floor between 1.4130 and 1.4148. That failed retest kept sellers firmly in control, leading to a break below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages yesterday. Broad-based U.S. dollar selling has simply added to the bearish momentum today.

Even so, the USDCAD's decline has been relatively modest compared with some of the other major dollar pairs. The USDJPY has been the standout mover, falling about 2.75% on growing speculation of Japanese intervention. Elsewhere, the USDCHF is down roughly 1.11%, while the NZDUSD (+1.47%) and AUDUSD (+1.05%) are also posting gains of more than 1% against the U.S. dollar.

From a technical perspective, the break below 1.4000 is an important step for sellers, but the next test comes near the 38.2% retracement level. A move below that target would strengthen the bearish bias and shift the focus toward deeper retracement objectives.

For the S&P 500, yesterday's decline took the price to the upper edge of a key support zone between 7300 and 7321, where buyers stepped in and stabilized the market into the close. Today's gap higher has created some breathing room, easing immediate downside pressure and keeping the buyers in the game.

That said, the technical hurdles remain clear. The price still needs to reclaim and hold above the 200-hour moving average at 7467.70 and the 100-hour moving average at 7476.90. A sustained move above those levels would shift near-term control back toward the buyers. Until then, the bulls can claim they defended support, but they have yet to prove they can regain control.

The Nasdaq saw an even more dramatic turnaround. Yesterday, the index broke below the important support zone between 24,913 and 25,109 and also slipped beneath its rising 100-day moving average at 24,797, giving sellers the technical advantage into the close.

Today's rebound has changed that picture. The low reached 24,813, just above the rising 100-day moving average (now at 24,798), resulting in a failed break below that key trend indicator—a technical win for the buyers. The rally then extended to 25,112.21, briefly pushing above the top of the former support zone at 25,109.39 before backing off modestly.

The index remains above the lower end of that support band at 24,913, leaving buyers and sellers battling for control around this critical area. A sustained move above 25,109 would target the falling 100-hour moving average at 25,531, followed by the 200-hour moving average at 25,709. Reclaiming both would shift the near-term bias firmly back in favor of the buyers.

On the downside, a move back below 24,913, followed by a break beneath the rising 100-day moving average at 24,798, would hand control back to the sellers and reinforce the recent bearish bias.

The bottom line is that today's rally has relieved some of the immediate technical pressure and kept the buyers alive. However, both indices remain below important short-term resistance levels. The buyers survived the latest test, but they still need to reclaim key moving averages before they can confidently say they've wrestled control back from the sellers.

In a video above I take a look at the technicals driving each of those currency pairs.  Buckle up. Markets are moving. 

Earlier today, the USDJPY finally broke below both its 200-hour moving average and the upward-sloping trendline near 163.36. That technical break shifted the near-term momentum to the downside and may have provided Japanese officials with an opportunity to reinforce the move if intervention remained a consideration. Since then, the pair has steadily checked off key support levels, with the decline extending to 160.31.

The next major downside target is the 100-day moving average at 160.107, which is now within striking distance. That level is likely to be a formidable support zone on the first test, as longer-term buyers may look to defend it. Whether the pair can break through that moving average or instead stages a corrective rebound should help determine the next directional move.

Yields have come off their high levels with the 10 year trading near the low for the day but still up 3.7 basis points at 4.659%. The 2 year yield is down -1.4 basis points to 4.221%. Stocks are moving to the upside with the NASDAQ leading the way with a gain of 2.14%. The NASDAQ 100 is doing even better at 2.66%.

The technical picture is straightforward. As long as the price remains above the 200-hour moving average, buyers still have a chance to regain control. Their first hurdle comes at the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.40958. A move back above that level would shift the near-term bias more firmly to the upside and have traders targeting the former support zone between 1.41297 and 1.41488, which has since turned into resistance.

On the downside, however, a sustained break below the 200-hour moving average would hand control back to the sellers. The first target would be last week's swing low at 1.4055. A move below that level would increase the bearish momentum and open the door toward Monday's low near 1.4003 (just above the key 1.4000 psychological level). If sellers can extend below 1.4000, attention would then turn to the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the May 1, 2026 low, which comes in at 1.39812.

The FOMC rate decisions later today at 2 PM. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged but there is a 35% chance of a tightening price by the market. Despite the move lower in the USDCAD, yields are higher with the two-year up 3.0 basis points at 4.307%, the 10 year is up 2.4 basis points at 4.628%.

Stocks are under pressure with the NASDAQ now down 1% in the S&P down -0.7%. The NASDAQ is now below its 100 day moving average at 24773.56. The S&P fell below a upward sloping trend line (see post from earlier today by clicking here)

Of course, there are also a slew of earnings after the close today, with the reports most likely to move markets highlighted below.

Mega Cap 

Microsoft (MSFT)

• Focus will be on Azure cloud growth, AI-related spending, Copilot adoption, and capital expenditures.
• Investors will be looking for reassurance that AI investments are translating into accelerating revenue growth.
• This is arguably the single most important report of the day.

Meta Platforms (META)

• Key metrics include advertising revenue, user engagement, AI monetization, and guidance.
• Investors also want updates on AI infrastructure spending and whether margins can remain strong despite elevated capex.
• Together with Microsoft, Meta's results could set the tone for Thursday's market.

Qualcomm (QCOM)

• Looking for trends in smartphone demand, automotive chips, and AI-enabled devices.
• Guidance will be especially important given the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks.

Arm Holdings (ARM)

• Investors want evidence that AI-related chip licensing remains strong.
• Outlook for royalties and future licensing activity will likely drive the stock more than the quarter itself.

Lam Research (LRCX)

• A key read on semiconductor equipment spending.
• Commentary on foundry and memory customer demand will be watched closely after recent AI-related volatility.

Consumers

Starbucks (SBUX)

• Investors are looking for signs that North American traffic is stabilizing.
• China sales remain a major focus.
• Management commentary on consumer spending trends will be important.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

• Comparable-store sales and customer traffic are the key metrics.
• Investors will also watch for margin trends and the impact of food costs.

Financials

Robinhood (HOOD)

• Trading activity, crypto revenue, options volumes, and asset growth will be in focus.
• Any update on retail trading activity could move not only Robinhood but also the broader fintech sector.

As highlighted in recent posts, the key resistance zone between 0.8170 and 0.82145 represents a cluster of swing highs from June through August 2025. The pair pushed into that area earlier this week and has spent much of the time since trading within it, underscoring its importance. Yesterday's high reached 0.82045, while the low briefly dipped below 0.8170 before buyers leaned against the rising 100-hour moving average, helping to lift the pair back toward the highs.

Today, sellers initially took control during the Asian session, pushing the price below the 100-hour moving average. However, the decline stalled at 0.8169—just below the lower boundary of the resistance zone—and buyers stepped back in. The rebound carried the pair right back to 0.82045, matching yesterday's high before easing modestly. The pair currently trades near 0.8194.

The battle lines are now well defined. Buyers are trying to break above the long-term swing high zone, while sellers continue to defend it. A sustained move above 0.82145 would strengthen the bullish bias and should open the door for additional upside momentum. On the downside, a break below 0.8170 would shift the focus back toward the rising 200-hour moving average, currently at 0.81414. A move below that level would give sellers firmer control and increase the downside risk. 

The rollercoaster ride continues.  

The AUDUSD is the biggest mover with a decline of -0.47% (higher USD)  Australia's June CPI report was softer than expected, with headline inflation falling 0.1% on the month versus expectations for a 0.2% increase, while the annual inflation rate eased to 3.8% from 4.0%, also below forecasts. The RBA's preferred trimmed mean CPI matched expectations at 0.3% m/m, but slowed from the prior month's 0.4% increase, suggesting underlying inflation pressures are continuing to moderate. Overall, the report is likely to reinforce expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia can remain patient on further policy tightening, reducing the urgency for another rate hike in the near term. Technically the price fell below the swing area and trend line support (it held yesterday) and that gave sellers the go-ahead to push lower. 

The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision today at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. This meeting has become one of the most uncertain in years, with Warsh providing little forward guidance and recent economic data sending mixed signals.

What the market expects:

• Base case: No change in the federal funds rate (3.50%-3.75%).
• Market pricing: Roughly 68.5% odds of no change and 31.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike.

Why the Fed may hold:

• June inflation cooled from May's elevated readings.
• Oil prices have dropped sharply over the past week, easing some inflation concerns.
• Recent economic data, including softer consumer confidence and labor indicators, point to moderating growth.
• Holding rates would give policymakers additional time to assess incoming GDP and inflation data.

Why a hike remains possible:

• Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target.
• Some policymakers have argued that policy should remain restrictive until inflation is clearly under control.
• Chairman Warsh has repeatedly emphasized restoring price stability and has avoided signaling his intentions ahead of meetings, increasing the risk of a surprise.

What markets will focus on:

• Any changes to the statement language.
• Whether there are dissenting votes from hawkish members.
• Warsh's comments on inflation, labor markets, and the recent decline in oil prices.
• Any indication of whether September is "live" for a rate move.

What are the market implications

• Hold with balanced/hawkish tone: Likely limited reaction initially, with markets quickly shifting focus to Warsh's press conference.
• Hold with dovish language: Stocks could extend gains, Treasury yields may fall, and the U.S. dollar could weaken.
• 25 bp hike: Likely the biggest market-moving outcome, potentially lifting the dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on equities, particularly growth and technology stocks.

The geopolitical backdrop turned more tense overnight after a brief lull in hostilities.

• The U.S. and Saudi Arabia reportedly carried out joint strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq after recent attacks linked to Tehran-backed groups. The strikes mark another escalation in the regional conflict and suggest the pause in military action has effectively ended.
• Iran launched another missile attack targeting U.S. forces, but U.S. officials said the missiles were intercepted. Tehran has also warned of further retaliation if additional military action is taken against Iran.
• Shipping risks remain elevated. Iran-backed forces continue to pressure energy routes, with renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes, although broader maritime traffic has not been shut down.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington remained the dominant diplomatic story. Key takeaways from their meeting:

• The leadersfocused primarily on Iran, regional security, and preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Despite reports of differences over strategy, both sides characterized the discussions as positive and productive.
• Iran remains the central issue. Netanyahu reportedly emphasized that Israel's red lines remain unchanged, including preventing Iran from rebuilding its nuclear program and maintaining pressure until those objectives are achieved.
• Diplomacy is still being explored. Regional mediators continue working on a framework that could eventually reopen negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, including proposals aimed at stabilizing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Those discussions remain preliminary and depend heavily on U.S. approval.
• Political headwinds are growing. Several reports note that while the meeting was cordial, Netanyahu faces increasing political pressure both domestically and in Washington as the conflict enters another prolonged phase.

The US stocks are mixed to lower in premarke ttrading:

• Dow industrial average -222 points
• S&P unchanged
• Nasdaq -21 points.

In the US that market, yields are higher:

• 2 year yield 4.313%, +3.6 basis points.
• 5 year yield 4.396%, +3.5 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.626%, +2.2 basis points
• 30 year yield 5.101%, +5.1 basis points

In other markets:

• Crude oil futures are higher by $3.60 and $82.90
• Gold is little changed at $4030
• Silver is up $0.53 and $57.62
• Bitcoin up $525 and $64,380

The pullback found support at the 100-hour moving average, where buyers slowed the decline and sparked a modest rebound. That moving average comes in at 1.40923, while the 200-hour moving average sits lower at 1.40737. The pair currently trades at 1.41056.

Heading into the North American session, those two moving averages will serve as the key risk-defining levels. As long as the price remains above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, buyers retain the near-term technical advantage. A move below the 200-hour moving average would tilt the short-term bias back in favor of the sellers.

On the topside, buyers still need to clear the 1.41297–1.41488 resistance zone to strengthen the bullish case. If that area is broken with momentum, traders would turn their focus toward the 1.4247 swing high as the next major upside target.

That support zone remains an important technical barometer. A sustained break below it would increase the bearish bias and shift the focus toward the 200-day moving average at $75.36, the next major downside target. On the topside, today's high near $82.43 is the first level sellers will look to defend if prices attempt to rebound.

The decline in crude oil today was driven primarily by a sharp unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium rather than a sudden change in supply or demand fundamentals. Key drivers include:

• Middle East tensions eased. The market continued to price out the risk premium after the U.S. paused additional military strikes on Iran, raising hopes that the conflict will not escalate further.
• Diplomatic optimism increased. President Trump said the U.S. was having "good" or "deep" talks with Iran, fueling expectations that negotiations could reduce the risk of further supply disruptions. Although Iran denied direct talks, traders focused on the reduced likelihood of an immediate military escalation.
• Reduced concern over the Strait of Hormuz. Oman has reportedly been working with regional countries on proposals to improve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Even though traffic remains below normal, the perception that the critical shipping lane is less likely to be disrupted weighed on oil prices.
• Profit-taking after the war-driven rally. WTI had surged above $93 on fears of prolonged conflict. As those fears eased, traders locked in gains, accelerating the decline. Analysts noted that much of the selling reflected the removal of the geopolitical premium rather than deteriorating physical market conditions.
• Potential for more global supply. Markets also looked ahead to the possibility that a broader easing of geopolitical tensions—including discussions surrounding Russia-Ukraine—could eventually increase global crude exports, adding to the bearish ton

Not so bearish news is that Isreael PM Netanyahu was in Washington meeting with Pres. Trump.  He told Trump that more strikes on Iran Nuclear facilities was needed as they have been "rehabilitated". 

The rebound carried the price back toward the cluster of hourly moving averages, with the 100-hour MA at 0.6986 and the 200-hour MA at 0.6991. That area once again attracted willing sellers. The rally stalled against the dual moving averages, and the price has since rotated back lower to trade around 0.6973, keeping the pair trapped between well-defined support and resistance.

From a technical perspective, both buyers and sellers accomplished what they needed to do. Buyers defended the rising trendline and swing support, preventing a deeper decline. Sellers, meanwhile, protected the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages, capping the recovery.

As a result, the roadmap remains straightforward. The rising trendline and the 0.6961 swing area continue to define the downside risk. Stay above those levels, and buyers remain in the game. On the topside, the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages remain the key hurdle. A move above those moving averages would increase the bullish bias and have traders looking for additional upside targets. Conversely, a break below the trendline and swing support would strengthen the bearish bias and shift the focus toward lower technical targets.