From a technical perspective, buyers continue to maintain control as long as the price stays above that moving average. Although USDCHF briefly dipped below the 100-hour MA on June 5, it has spent the majority of the period since June 2 trading above the level, reinforcing its importance as a near-term trend barometer.

If buyers can keep the pair above the 100-hour MA, the upside bias remains intact. A move above 0.80178 would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for a retest of the March-end high at 0.80417, a level that also aligns with the mid-January high.

On the downside, a break below the 100-hour moving average would shift attention toward the Monday and Tuesday lows near 0.7946. A move below that support area would increase the risk of a deeper correction. Until then, however, buyers retain the technical advantage.

Helping fuel the decline were stronger-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims data and a firmer PPI report. Combined with yesterday's CPI release, the data have many analysts now projecting a 0.4% increase in core PCE inflation. That is not the type of inflation signal that supports expectations for Fed rate cuts anytime soon and has helped underpin the U.S. dollar.

From a technical perspective, the next key downside target comes near 1.33045, where both the May and June swing lows converge. A break below that level would increase the bearish bias and open the door toward support at 1.32831. Below that, traders would shift their focus to a broader support zone between 1.3171 and 1.3183.

On the topside, the former swing area between 1.3365 and 1.33739, along with the falling 100-hour moving average, now serve as important resistance. Buyers would need to reclaim those levels to weaken the bearish outlook and target the 200-hour moving average at 1.34047, followed by the 200-day moving average at 1.34165. Ultimately, a move above all of those resistance levels is needed to return control to the buyers, with each break adding another layer of bullish confidence.

Lagarde noted that short-term inflation expectations have risen across several measures, while longer-term expectations remain broadly anchored near the ECB's target. She acknowledged that inflation pressures are becoming more broad-based, partly due to higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions, but said there is still no convincing evidence of a wage-driven inflation spiral.

On growth, Lagarde pushed back against recession concerns, pointing to positive growth, rising incomes, and stronger consumer purchasing power. She stressed that the ECB remains data dependent and is not pre-committing to additional rate hikes, but made clear that policymakers remain focused on preventing inflation from becoming entrenched.

Overall, the message was that inflation risks remain elevated, the ECB is prepared to act when necessary, and policymakers are not ready to become complacent simply because inflation has recently been near target.

Technically, the ECB's rate hike has done little to alter the bearish bias. The EURUSD remains below its falling 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.1541. Although the price briefly moved above that level during the European session, buyers were unable to sustain the momentum, and the pair has since rotated back to the downside.

As long as the price remains below the 100-hour moving average, sellers maintain the technical advantage. On the downside, the next key target zone comes around the 1.1500 level, between 1.1498 and 1.1506. A break below that area would open the door for a move toward the next swing area between 1.1442 and 1.1458. Beyond that, traders would focus on the year-to-date low from March 12-13 at 1.14089.

For buyers to regain control, they need to push the price back above the 100-hour moving average and hold it there. If that occurs, attention would shift toward a key resistance cluster between 1.1577 and 1.1587. This area includes former swing lows from May 20, the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2026 low at 1.15768, and the falling 200-hour moving average, currently near 1.1582. A sustained move above that resistance zone would strengthen the bullish case and target the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.16287.

In the video above, I outline the technical levels in play in greater detail and explain why.

On Tuesday, the pair pushed to 1.39686, briefly breaking above the previous 2026 high from late March at 1.39663. However, buyers were unable to sustain the breakout, triggering a pullback that drove the price below its rising 100-hour moving average. Sellers could not generate enough momentum to reach the 200-hour moving average, and by the close the pair had recovered back above the 100-hour MA.

That recovery proved to be an important signal. During the early Asian session today, buyers stepped in once again near the 100-hour moving average, using it as a springboard for another move higher. Momentum accelerated during the European morning after the pair broke above Tuesday's high at 1.39686, and the advance has continued following stronger-than-expected PPI data and lower-than-expected initial jobless claims, both of which have supported the U.S. dollar.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart is becoming increasingly constructive for the bulls. The 38.2% retracement of the decline from the February 2025 high to the January 2026 low comes in at 1.39839. The pair has now moved above that level, strengthening the bullish bias and turning that retracement into an important near-term risk-defining level.

For intraday traders, maintaining price action above 1.39839 keeps buyers firmly in control. Allowing for a 5- to 10-pip buffer around that level is reasonable. A deeper pullback below the former breakout zone between 1.3966 and 1.3969 — defined by the March high and Tuesday's high — would be a more meaningful warning sign that upside momentum is beginning to fade.

As long as the price remains above those support levels, buyers retain the technical advantage and will continue to target higher levels not seen since late 2025.

Fundamentally, the loonie is trading as a risk asset, not an oil proxy. Despite crude in the mid-$90s, USDCAD is maintaining the buyers control — the loonie's weakest in roughly two months — because the Middle East conflict has markets reaching for the US dollar as a safe haven, and that crisis bid is overwhelming CAD's usual petro-currency correlation.

The domestic picture compounds it. Canada is flirting with recession, with Q1 GDP contracting 0.1% annualized on the heels of a 1.0% contraction the quarter before, leaving the loonie among the weakest majors in recent weeks. Rates offer no support: the BoC is parked at 2.25% and has explicitly committed to looking through energy-driven inflation, neutralizing what would normally be a hawkish oil impulse.

Layered on top is unresolved USMCA/trade uncertainty — analysts increasingly argue a sustained CAD recovery requires Ottawa to land a trade accord with Washington this summer.

Bottom line: the path to a stronger loonie runs through Gulf de-escalation and a US-Canada trade deal. Until one or both materialize, rallies in CAD are likely to stay shallow, even with oil elevated.

The US dollar is little changed versus the major currency pairs. In the video above I talk about the technicals given the recent price action, but there isn't a lot of net movement versus yesterday's close despite modest up and down.

The ECB rate decision to raise rates by 25 basis points as expected has done little to tilt the needle one way or the other.

Markets are still looking for the catalyst to give traders a more clear direction.

Middle East Overnight Summary

• The U.S. carried out another round of strikes overnight, targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including air-defense and surveillance sites.
• Iran responded with missile and drone attacks aimed at U.S.-aligned facilities in the region. Most were reportedly intercepted, limiting damage.
• Iranian officials said recent U.S. actions have undermined the ceasefire and warned of further retaliation if strikes continue.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a key focus, with concerns about potential disruptions to global energy shipments, although commercial traffic continues to move through the region.
• Diplomatic efforts remain underway behind the scenes, with regional and international mediators continuing to push for de-escalation.

Crude oil is now lower

Oil prices after moving higher earlier in the session have reversed and are trading near the lows for the day down about -$1.17 at $88.86. The high price today reached $93.64. The low is at $88.63 so far. Investors continue to monitor whether the conflict remains contained or broadens into a wider regional confrontation. Markets are balancing the risks of further military escalation against hopes that diplomatic channels can prevent a larger conflict.

US stocks are high after yesterday's meltdown

The US stocks are higher after yesterday's sharp declines which saw the Dow fall -953 points or -1.87%, the S&P fall -119 points or -1.62% and the Nasdaq tumble -509.32 points or -1.98%. This morning the markets have recouped some of those declines with the futures implying:

• Dow industrial average of 385 points points
• S&P index up 54 points
• NASDAQ index up 340 points

Tomorrow, SpaceX is coming public at a $1.75 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion at $135 per share. Investors are not buying today's earnings; they are buying the vision of a company that could dominate space launches, satellite communications, AI infrastructure, and potentially off-world commerce over the next decade. Whether that vision justifies the valuation remains the central debate surrounding the IPO

Key details:

• Pricing Date: June 11, 2026
• First Trading Day: June 12, 2026
• Ticker: SPCX
• Exchange: Nasdaq
• IPO Price: $135 per share
• Capital Raise: Approximately $75 billion
• Valuation: Roughly $1.75 trillion

In other markets:

• Bitcoin is trading up $1300 or 2.10% and 63,120
• Gold is up modestly my $15.70 or 0.38% at $4085.90. Yesterday the prices tumbled by -4.46%
• Silver is trading up $0.40 or 0.67% at $63.79 after yesterday's nearly 3% decline

Today’s calendar is focused on PPI and jobless claims, coming one day after the as expected and somewhat CPI data ex energy.

For PPI, expectations are still elevated:

• Headline PPI YoY: expected 6.4% vs 6.0% prior
• Headline PPI MoM: expected 0.7% vs 1.4% prior
• Core PPI YoY: expected 5.4% vs 5.2% prior
• Core PPI MoM: expected 0.5% vs 1.0% prior

So while the monthly gains are expected to slow from April, the year-over-year readings are still alarmingly high. That makes today’s PPI important because it will show whether pipeline inflation pressures are easing, or whether price pressures remain sticky at the producer level.

On the labor side:

• Initial jobless claims: expected 219K vs 225K prior
• Continuing claims: expected 1.780M vs 1.777M prior
• 4-week average: prior 214.75K

Claims remain low by historical standards, suggesting the labor market is still holding up. A lower claims number would reinforce the view that employment remains resilient, while a jump in claims would point to some softening.

Canada will also release building permits, expected at -3.5% after a 10.3% gain previously.

Overall, after yesterday’s softer CPI, markets will be watching whether PPI confirms the inflation moderation story. A softer PPI would likely support the bond and equity market relief trade, while a hotter reading could quickly bring inflation worries back, especially with energy prices and Middle East tensions still in focus.

This area is a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. Which way will the market traders take the price.

The move higher pushed the price back above its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above) six, currently at $91.07 and $91.64 respectively. However, buyers were unable to build on that momentum, and the price has since rotated back to the downside. Buyers had their opportunity but failed to seize control. Sellers are still in play and control.

For the bias to shift back in favor of the bulls, the price needs to move above those key moving averages and stay above them. Until then, sellers remain firmly in the game. On the downside, the next key target comes in a swing area between $85.45 and $86.35. A break below that zone would strengthen the bearish case and open the door for a move toward the April low at $78.97.

If buyers can regain control and hold above the moving averages, traders will turn their focus to the downward-sloping trend line near $91.64, which continues to move lower over time.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that might normally send oil prices sharply higher, the rally has been relatively restrained. The muted response suggests markets remain hopeful that a resolution—or at least a de-escalation—of the conflict may not be far away.

On the downside, silver traded to a low of $63.38 today, briefly moving below the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low, which comes in at $63.98. However, buyers stepped in and the price has since rebounded to around $64.76. That leaves the market caught in a battle between the 61.8% retracement support level and the overhead resistance from the 200-day moving average.

For now, the sellers remain in control while the price stays below the 200-day moving average. A renewed move below the 61.8% retracement with momentum would strengthen the bearish case and shift focus toward the March swing low and the 2026 low at $61.02.

If sellers are able to break below $61.02, the technical picture would deteriorate further. Beyond that level, chart support becomes sparse, leaving room for a deeper decline toward the next significant support zone near $54.46.

Silver began the year with strong bullish momentum, rallying sharply from its year-end closing level of $71.60 to a peak of $121.64 on January 29. However, that surge proved unsustainable, and the metal quickly reversed course, plunging to $64.10 by February 6.

Since then, price action has been marked by heightened volatility, with large swings in both directions. The decline extended to a new low for the year at $61.02 on March 23 before buyers regained control and drove prices higher. That recovery culminated in a swing high of $89.37 on May 13.

The rally from the March low has since given way to another sharp correction. Since the May peak, silver has fallen approximately 28% in just 18 trading days, underscoring the aggressive selling pressure that has emerged and the elevated volatility that continues to characterize the market.

Looking at the daily chart, the next major downside targets are coming into focus. The price is approaching the March 2026 low at $4,098.74. Just beneath that level sits the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the September 2022 low at $4,079.35. With those two support levels separated by less than $20, the area should attract buying interest from traders looking to lean against support with defined risk.

A break below both levels, however, would represent a significant technical setback and give sellers greater control of the longer-term trend.

The hourly chart reinforces the bearish bias. Looking at the chart below, in addition to breaking below the 200-day moving average, gold's corrective rally yesterday stalled within a key swing area between $4,350 and $4,373 before turning lower once again (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the chart below). That resistance zone, along with the falling 100-hour moving average at $4,335, represents the first upside hurdles for buyers. A move back above those levels would increase confidence that a more meaningful recovery is underway.

For now, the technical picture favors the sellers. However, the market is approaching a significant support zone. A break below it would strengthen the bearish case and open the door for further downside momentum. Hold above it, and gold could be poised for a corrective rebound following the sharp decline seen over the past several weeks.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -378 points (-0.74%)
• S&P 500: -26 points (-0.35%)
• NASDAQ Composite: -114 points (-0.45%)

The NASDAQ briefly attempted to turn positive following the CPI release but has since rotated back to the downside. From a technical perspective, the index pushed above a key swing area resistance target at 25,701.90 (see renumbered circles on the chart above), reaching a session high of 25,726.00 before running into sellers and retreating.

For buyers to regain control, the index needs to move back above that swing area and hold the break. A sustained move higher would shift attention toward the 200-hour moving average at 26,155.81, which represents the next significant upside target.

On the downside, failure to reclaim and hold above the swing area keeps sellers in the game. In that scenario, traders will look toward yesterday's low near the 25,000 level as the next support target. A break below that level would increase downside momentum and expose the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the March 30 low, which comes in at 24,707.22.

For the S&P 500, the index remains below its 200-hour moving average at 7,424.08, keeping the broader technical bias tilted to the downside. Today's rally attempt stalled at 7,396.56, remaining short of that key resistance level.

On the downside, traders will be focused on the support zone between 7,321 and 7,341. A break below that area would strengthen the bearish case and shift attention toward yesterday's low near 7,233. If sellers can push below that level, the next downside target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the March low, which is located at 7,123.08.

As long as the index remains below the 200-hour moving average, sellers maintain a technical edge. Buyers need a move above that level to regain control and increase bullish momentum.

From a technical perspective, the pair is now back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.3930. Earlier in the session, price action oscillated around that level, with the softer reaction to the U.S. CPI report helping to push the pair lower. The 100-hour moving average acted as support on June 5 and again yesterday, so a sustained move below the level shifts the bias modestly in favor of the sellers.

What sellers have not been able to do, however, is force a break below the 200-hour moving average at 1.3886. That key support level attracted buyers on June 2 and again on June 1, reinforcing its importance. A move below the 200-hour moving average would strengthen the bearish case and open the door toward the next downside target at 1.3868, the lower boundary of a key swing area.

For now, with the pair trading between the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, sellers have gained some control, but they still need a break below the 200-hour moving average to increase downside momentum.

On the hourly chart above, the price continues to trade below the closely converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines) between $91.28 and $91.58. If buyers are to regain control, they need to push the price above those resistance levels and, more importantly, keep it there. Oil has spent much of the month oscillating around those moving averages, but the fact that it currently remains below them keeps the near-term bias tilted to the downside.

At the same time, sellers have not yet delivered a decisive technical breakdown. Yesterday's low found support just ahead of the rising 100-day moving average, currently at $85.97 (blue line on the chart below), while today's low remains above the 50% retracement of the rally from the December 2025 low to the March 2026 high, which comes in at $87.23. Those levels represent important downside targets and support zones. A move below—and sustained trading beneath—both the 50% retracement and the 100-day moving average would strengthen the bearish case and give sellers firmer control of the market.

For now, despite the geopolitical backdrop, the inability of crude oil to reclaim the 100- and 200-hour moving averages argues for a modestly bearish bias. However, sellers would still like to see a break below the $87.23 retracement level and the rising 100-day moving average at $85.96 to confirm and extend that control.

We're now well into June, the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, and recent developments suggest the situation may be worsening rather than improving. If energy prices remain elevated or move even higher, today's "gasoline story" could become a broader inflation story in the months ahead. That raises the question of whether the Fed can afford to simply look through the latest rise in prices as a temporary shock.

The Fed continues to emphasize its 2% inflation target, but markets will be paying close attention to next week's FOMC meeting for clues about how Chair Warsh and other policymakers are interpreting the recent data. Are they still willing to view energy-driven inflation as transitory, or are they becoming more concerned that higher fuel costs could eventually spill over into core inflation and inflation expectations?

For now, investors appear somewhat relieved. Prior to the CPI release, S&P 500 futures were indicating a decline of about 58 points, while Nasdaq futures were down roughly 381 points. Since the report, those losses have narrowed, with S&P futures now pointing to a decline of around 35 points and Nasdaq futures down about 210 points. The market's response suggests traders believe the report, while firm, was not strong enough to significantly alter the Fed outlook ahead of next week's policy decision.

The USD has declined modestly.

• The EURUSD is trading near the session high at 1.1556 as buyers look to build on the latest upside momentum. The next key technical hurdle comes at the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.1562. Recall that this moving average helped stall the rally during yesterday's trade. If buyers can push above that level, attention shifts to a swing area between 1.1577 and 1.1587, followed by the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.1597. A break above those resistance levels would strengthen the bullish case and give buyers greater control of the pair in the short term.

• The USDJPY has edged modestly lower, trading at 160.39 after reaching a session high of 160.52 just ahead of the data release. Despite the dip, sellers still have work to do from a technical perspective. The pair remains above the rising 100-hour moving average at 160.17 and the key 160.00 natural support level. Just below that, the rising 200-hour moving average comes in at 159.93. A move below those support levels — and, importantly, the ability to stay below them — would be needed to shift the technical bias more convincingly to the downside.

• The GBPUSD has pushed to a new session high and is now approaching a key resistance zone where the 200-hour moving average and 200-day moving average converge near 1.3417. The pair has also moved above and is pulling away from its rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3381, reflecting improving upside momentum. However, with the price still trading between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, the overall technical bias remains neutral. A sustained move above the 200-hour and 200-day moving averages would strengthen the bullish case and give buyers greater control. On the downside, if the latest rally loses momentum and the price falls back below the 100-hour moving average, a break beneath the swing area between 1.3366 and 1.3374 would increase bearish pressure and shift the bias back in favor of the sellers.

• The USDCAD is slipping below its rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3929 after failing to build on yesterday's breakout above the 2026 high at 1.3966. The pair reached a high of 1.3969 yesterday before running out of momentum and rotating lower. The pullback now has sellers testing a key technical level. Notably, declines found support at the 100-hour moving average on June 5 and again yesterday, making today's move below the average an important test of seller conviction. The question now is whether sellers can maintain the downside momentum and push the pair lower. Standing in the way is the Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:45 AM ET, where policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged. However, any statement that leans more dovish could help fuel a move toward the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.3885. On the other hand, lingering uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Canada trade relations could continue to provide support for the U.S. dollar and limit downside progress in the pair.

In other developments, geopolitics remain in the forefront for traders and the markets. The US and Iran traded direct strikes overnight. After Iran downed a U.S. Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz Monday (both crew rescued safely), the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait. Iran hit back early Wednesday, with the IRGC launching missiles and drones at a U.S. base in Jordan (five missiles intercepted), the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and targets in Kuwait, while Saudi Arabia intercepted two cruise missiles and nine drones near Riyadh.

Meanwhile, Israel and Hezbollah traded fire overnight, with Israeli strikes south of Beirut killing six, and later hits on a hotel in suburban Beirut and a building in Baalbek.

Trump's tone turned sharply negative on the peace deal. On Truth Social he posted: "Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They've taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!". Recall from earlier this week, he reiterated that a deal was hours away.

Markets are still pricing containment: WTI is currently up about $1.78 at $89.90. That is up from the low for the day at $87.39. The high is at $90.42. Crude has underlying support from an eighth straight weekly inventory draw (-9.1M bbl per API).. Gasoline and cushion also fell

The EIA will release their numbers later today at 10:30 AM ET where the expectations are for crude to have a draw of -3.974M, gasoline to have a draw of -0.471M, and distillates to have a draw of -0.488M.

US stocks are on the defensive with the Nasdaq sharply lower after a volatile day of about 1200 points. Tne NASDAQ is down -447 points. The Dow industrial average is down -440 points, and the S&P index is down -72.65 points in premarket trading.

US bond yields are higher with the two-year up 1.5 basis points at 4.139%. The 10 year is up 1.0 basis points at 4.538%. The US treasury will auction off 10 year notes at 1 PM.

The key US release today will be at 8:30 AM ET, when the May CPI report will be announced. The key estimates are:

• Headline CPI is expected at +0.5% MoM versus +0.6% prior, with the YoY rate expected at +4.2% versus +3.8% prior.
• Core CPI is expected at +0.3% MoM versus +0.4% prior, with the YoY rate expected at +2.9% versus +2.8% prior.

The headline CPI has been above the 2% target since March 2021, while core YoY has been above that level since April 2021.

The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET and is widely expected to leave its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting. The central bank continues to balance persistent inflation concerns against signs of slowing economic growth and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations and global geopolitical developments.

While financial markets have priced in some risk of additional tightening later this year, most economists expect the BoC to remain on hold through year-end as it evaluates the impact of the upcoming USMCA review, labor market conditions, and the broader economic outlook.

• Dow industrial average rose by 86.03 points or 0.17% to 50,877.10. At session lows the index fell -575.05
• S&P index fell -19.06 points or -0.26% to 7386.66. At session lows the index fell -167.87.
• NASDAQ index fell -250.84 points or -0.97% to 25678.82. At session lows, the index fell -249.29 points

Some of the oversize losers today included:

While some of the winners were:

The patterns showd chips and AI out, consumer and airlines are in. A few things converged today:

The chip rout continued. Technology and AI-linked stocks sold off sharply on Friday after Broadcom's disappointing forecast fueled concerns about high valuations in the sector, particularly in chipmakers, which have rallied strongly this year. Monday's bounce proved to be a head fake — the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell almost 7% Tuesday after rising as much as 3% in early trading. That explains Marvell, Arm, Qualcomm, SMCI, and Dell all clustered at the bottom.

Rate-hike fears are back. May jobs growth of 172,000 doubled consensus expectations, and economists now see roughly a 70% probability of rates rising by December — a tough setup for richly valued growth stocks, with CPI data due tomorrow morning.

Geopolitics added fuel. Losses mounted Tuesday after President Trump said the U.S. must "respond" to what he said was Iran's shooting down of an Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, pushing equities to session lows.

Stories from individual movers

SharkNinja (+8.5%) — the day's standout winner. The household goods maker introduced a new line of carpet cleaning products on Monday, and its relative strength line has been rising. The stock is breaking out near 52-week highs, and it's a classic beneficiary of money rotating out of tech into consumer names.

Strategy/MSTR (-8.0%) — the worst performer on your list is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, and Coinbase down 4% on the same list confirms crypto got swept up in the broad risk-off move. When rate-hike odds rise, speculative assets get hit hardest.

The airlines (ALK, LUV, UAL, DAL, AAL all up 3.6–6.8%) — this is an oil story. Oil prices were modestly lower amid optimism around a potential Iran-US agreement, and jet fuel is airlines' biggest cost. The Middle East conflict had pushed airlines' projected fuel bill to about $350 billion this year from roughly $252 billion in 2025, so any sign of de-escalation gives beaten-down carriers a big lift.

Home Depot, Whirlpool, Nike, Dollar Tree — gainers among blue chips included Home Depot and Nike, part of the rotation into defensive, consumer-facing value stocks that had lagged during the AI-driven rally.

One nuance worth noting: some optimists see this as healthy. One CIO called the pullback "a gift for investors," saying sharp pullbacks have been met with aggressive buying because strong fundamentals remain in place. The real test comes tomorrow with the CPI print.

Looking at the daily chart below, the day's low dipped below the 50% midpoint retracement of the move up from the December 17 low at $87.34, but stopped short of the 100-day moving average target at $85.66, coming within $0.29 of that rising level. The last time price traded below the 100-day moving average was back on January 23, when crude was near $60.24.

Notably, the decline came despite heightened tensions overnight after an Apache helicopter was shot down, reportedly by an Iranian drone. In the past, that kind of headline might have sent crude sharply higher. Instead, the price remains well below yesterday's close and traded to its lowest level since April 21.

Nevertheless, going forward it will take a move below the 100 day MA to tilt the bias more to the downside.

For the US dollar is now mixed versus the major currencies, but well off the low levels for each of the pairs. What are the technical stories for some of those major currency pairs now.

In this video, I take a look at what the dollar's reversal higher has changed the technical picture for the:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• NZDUSD
• AUDUSD, and the
• USDCAD

WTI crude oil is down roughly $3.50 to $87.70, its lowest level since May 29, reflecting a significant unwinding of the geopolitical premium that had built into the market. From a technical standpoint, the bearish turn began on Monday when the price broke below both its 200-hour moving average at $91.77 and 100-hour moving average at $92.77. That breakdown shifted the short-term bias firmly in favor of the sellers.

The downside momentum accelerated today as WTI fell below an upward-sloping trend line on the hourly chart near $88.10. As long as the price remains below that trend line, sellers maintain the technical advantage. The session low has reached $87.37, with the next key downside target coming in at the May 29 low of $86.55.

On the fundamental side, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that a return to normal energy flows could take many months, but also emphasized that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing meaningfully. At the same time, Israel's top military commander said recent operations in Iran were preparation for a potentially heavier blow. Despite those comments, traders appear to be focusing more on the gradual restoration of supply flows than on the risk of future disruptions tied to the conflict.

The result has been a sharp pullback in crude prices. Since reaching a high near $97.00 on June 3, WTI has fallen nearly 10%, underscoring the market's growing belief that supply concerns may prove less severe than initially feared. From a technical perspective, the path of least resistance remains lower while the price stays below the broken moving averages and trend-line resistance.

Stocks have moved to new lows with the Dow, S&P and the Nasdaq now all in negative territory. The Nasdaq is leading the way with a decline of -1.88% and trading to the lowest level since May 5th. The S&P index is now back below its 200 hour moving average at 7417.28. The price is currently trading at 7323-82 points or -1.11%.

Traders are contributing they decline to report that data center developer Crusoe has pause development on a Wyoming site.

Here's a full breakdown of what's going on with Crusoe's Wyoming project:

What it is — Project Jade Laramie County commissioners unanimously voted to move forward with construction of a 1.8 gigawatt data center campus near Cheyenne — designed to eventually scale up to 10 gigawatts, which would make it the largest single AI campus in the US. The facility is officially called Project Jade.

The partnership Crusoe partnered with Tallgrass Energy Partners, with Tallgrass building the adjacent BFC Power and Cheyenne Power Hub next door to supply electricity from on-site natural gas turbines, while also leveraging its existing CO2 sequestration hub for carbon capture and its existing natural gas and water infrastructure in Wyoming.

About Crusoe Crusoe began as Crusoe Energy Systems, a flare mitigation provider that powered onsite computing from stranded natural gas, with bitcoin mining as an early use case. It has since pivoted to AI infrastructure and GPU cloud services, and is also developing a 1.2 GW campus in Abilene, Texas — where Oracle is the direct customer and OpenAI is Oracle's customer, tied to the Stargate program.

Local controversy Despite unanimous county approval, the project drew emotional testimony from rural neighbors concerned about lost views and potential water contamination, with residents lamenting the industrialization of pasture land. Developers pledged to use deep aquifer drilling and closed-loop cooling to protect local drinking water.

Why Wyoming The state offers cheap land, cold climate for cooling efficiency, proximity to natural gas infrastructure, and a business-friendly regulatory environment. Senator Cynthia Lummis has been a vocal supporter, calling it a project that will solidify Wyoming's role as a powerhouse of high-performance computing.

So what has the corrections in each, done from a technical perspective? That is has the short term bias shifted putting into question the recent run higher in the USD?

NZDUSD Technical Review:

For the NZDUSD, the price action has offered several encouraging technical clues for buyers. The first came during the early Asian session when the pair tested support near the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the April low to the May high at 0.5796, a level that also coincided with the psychologically important 0.5800 area. The session low reached 0.5800, and the successful defense of that support gave buyers the confidence to step back in.

That rebound helped drive the pair above a key swing area between 0.5813 and 0.5822, another bullish development. Breaking above that zone shifted the short-term bias higher and opened the door for a move toward the next technical hurdle: the falling 100-hour moving average.

The rally ultimately stalled at that moving average as sellers leaned against the level. However, the subsequent pullback provided another positive signal. Rather than falling back below the prior breakout zone, the correction found willing buyers near the top of the swing area at 0.5822, turning former resistance into support. The pair has since worked its way back toward the 100-hour moving average, setting up an important technical battle.

Going forward, the 100-hour moving average remains the key barometer for both buyers and sellers. If the risk-on tone in the North American session continues and the pair can break and stay above that moving average, it would strengthen the bullish case and signal that buyers are gaining greater control. Conversely, failure to break above the moving average could keep sellers in charge and lead to another test of the 0.5813–0.5822 support zone.

For now, the technical roadmap is well defined. Support has held where buyers needed it to hold, resistance has been identified, and the battle lines are clearly drawn around the 100-hour moving average. The next break should provide an important clue for the pair's near-term direction.

AUDUSD Technical Review:

For the AUDUSD, the recovery effort has been noticeably less impressive than what we have seen in the NZDUSD. Nevertheless, there have been some positive developments from a technical perspective.

The pair has managed to move back above the 50% retracement of the rally from the late-March low to the early-May high, which comes in at 0.7055. However, unlike the NZDUSD, the price is struggling to build momentum above that level and has spent the early North American session trading back and forth around the midpoint.

As a result, buyers still have considerable work to do if they want to demonstrate that yesterday's low near 0.7018 was a meaningful bottom. The next key hurdle comes at the 100-day moving average at 0.7076. Recall that during yesterday's trading, the price briefly pushed above that moving average but failed to sustain the break as sellers leaned against a swing low from May 19 at 0.7079. The inability to hold above those levels encouraged renewed selling pressure and sent the pair back lower.

As such, buyers need to reclaim and hold above both the 100-day moving average (0.7076) and the May 19 swing low (0.7079) to improve the technical outlook. If they can do that, attention would shift toward the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.7093, followed by the next resistance zone between 0.7100 and 0.7113.

For now, the AUDUSD faces a more challenging technical roadmap than the NZDUSD. While the move back above the 50% retracement is a constructive step, the pair remains surrounded by several layers of overhead resistance. Traders will continue to watch the 0.7055 midpoint level for near-term directional clues. If the price cannot establish itself above that level, it would suggest that buyers are still struggling to gain meaningful control and could leave the door open for another move back toward recent lows.

USDCAD Technical Review:

For the USDCAD, the pair retested yesterday's high during the early Asian-Pacific session and found willing sellers near 1.3959. That resistance area sits within a broader zone defined by swing highs from March and early April between 1.3948 and 1.3966. The inability to break above the 2026 high at 1.3966 gave sellers the green light to push the pair lower.

The subsequent decline has brought the price down toward its 100-hour moving average at 1.3917, a level that has attracted buyers on multiple occasions. Today's low reached 1.3920, just above the moving average, before rebounding back toward the current level near 1.3935.

The fact that buyers stepped in once again at the 100-hour moving average increases its importance as a near-term risk-defining level. There is also recent history supporting its significance. Last Friday, the pair found support and rebounded from essentially the same moving average. When a technical level repeatedly attracts buyers and sellers, traders tend to place greater emphasis on it when defining both risk and directional bias.

As a result, the battle lines are becoming more clearly defined. A move below the 100-hour moving average would tilt the bias back to the downside and have traders targeting the 200-hour moving average at 1.3870. That moving average resides within an important swing area between 1.3868 and 1.3877, making it the next key downside target.

On the other hand, as long as the price remains above the 100-hour moving average, it is difficult to argue that sellers have regained control. Instead, the pair remains trapped between well-defined technical boundaries: resistance at the 2026 high of 1.3966 and support at the rising 100-hour moving average near 1.3917. Until one of those levels gives way, traders are likely to view the current price action as a battle for control rather than a decisive change in trend.

As mentioned, U.S. Treasury yields are starting the day modestly lower as traders unwind some of the energy-driven inflation fears. Crude oil is down $1.60 to $89.70, slipping back below the key $90 level, which is helping ease concerns about a renewed inflation surge and reducing some of the pressure on fixed-income markets ahead of tomorrow's CPI report.

• 2-year yield: 4.141%, down 1.7 basis points
• 5-year yield: 4.273%, down 0.8 basis points
• 10-year yield: 4.548%, down 1.2 basis points
• 30-year yield: 5.029%, up 0.5 basis points

The move lower in yields is relatively modest, suggesting traders are reluctant to make large bets ahead of Wednesday's CPI release. While lower oil prices are providing some relief, the market remains focused on whether inflation data will validate the recent shift toward pricing in a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

US stocks are higher on relief and hopes for a moon mission when the SpaceX IPO will take off:

• Dow +90 points
• S&P up 28 points
• Nasdaq up 214 points

Outside of the Treasury and stock market, price action is showing

• Gold: $4,340.01, up $10.29 or 0.24%. The precious metal is recovering modestly as lower yields provide some support, although gains remain restrained ahead of tomorrow's CPI report. The price of gold broke below its 200 day MA on Friday and remains below that MA level at $4412.14. The price will need to extend back above that MA to give the buyers more control.
• Silver: $68.54, up $0.41 or 0.60%. Silver is modestly outperforming gold, extending higher after breaking and failing on a move below its 200 day MA yesterday at $67.149. The low price today has found willing buyers against that area keeping the buyers hopes in place (the low was at $67.46)
• Bitcoin: $62,597, down $465 or 0.74%. The cryptocurrency is trading lower in early dealings, giving back a portion of recent gains as traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.

On the economic calendar today, traders will focus on U.S. trade data for April and existing home sales for May ahead of this week's key inflation report.

The U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$56.0 billion from -$60.3 billion in March, while existing home sales are forecast to edge higher to 4.07 million annualized units from 4.02 million previously. Final Wholesale inventories will also be released with the expectations of 0.5% (same as prelim) vs 1.5% last month.

However, the main event remains Wednesday's Consumer Price Index report due at 8:30 AM ET. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.5% month-over-month, lifting the annual rate to 4.2% from 3.8%, while core CPI is also expected to increase 0.3% on the month, pushing the year-over-year rate to 2.9% from 2.8%. The inflation data will be closely scrutinized for signs that higher energy costs and a resilient labor market are beginning to generate renewed price pressures outside of energy. With markets increasingly pricing the possibility of at least one additional Fed rate hike this year, the report could play a pivotal role in shaping interest rate expectations and broader market sentiment.

NOTE; The BOC rate decision on Wednesday too and the ECB decision and US PPI on Thursday is a look ahead.

Another key event this week is the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, which is expected to price on June 11 and begin trading on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX. The offering is targeting a record $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO in history and immediately place SpaceX among the ten most valuable publicly traded companies in the world.

Investor demand has been exceptionally strong, driven by SpaceX's dominance in commercial space launches, the rapid growth of its Starlink satellite internet business, and enthusiasm surrounding its AI and data infrastructure ambitions. The company generated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, although it remains unprofitable as it continues to invest heavily in future growth initiatives.

Instead, the downside momentum faded.

After slipping below the 200-day moving average, silver reversed higher and has since reclaimed that key technical level. From a technical perspective, the sellers had their opportunity to seize control and push the market lower, but they were unable to sustain the break. When a market fails to extend after a significant technical violation, it often sends an important message. In this case, the inability to remain below the 200-day moving average increases the potential for a corrective rebound. The price is currently up $0.48 were 0.70% at $68.36

The next key level to watch on the topside is $70.87. A move above that level would strengthen the bullish case and shift the focus toward the 50% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low at $74.99. Beyond that, the 100-day moving average at $80.59 becomes the next major upside target.

It was the break below the 100-day moving average on May 15 that helped trigger the latest leg lower and ultimately led the price down to the 200-day moving average tested today. If buyers can build on today's recovery and maintain upward momentum, a larger corrective rally could develop.

On the other hand, if silver turns lower and falls back below the 200-day moving average, sellers would regain control. In that scenario, the next downside targets would be the 61.8% retracement at $63.98, followed by the March 23, 2026 low at $60.73.

One additional point of note: silver closed 2025 at $71.60, and after the sharp declines of recent weeks, the metal is now trading below that level and is negative on the year. That marks a dramatic reversal from the strong start to 2026, when prices surged to a record high of $121.64 on January 29 before the current correction took hold.

While the pair managed to remain above the short-term moving averages, it could not generate enough momentum to push through the first hurdle. The high price today reached 1.1554, stalling precisely at the 38.2% retracement level before rotating back lower.

The subsequent pullback has been relatively modest, allowing the key moving averages on the 5-minute chart to move back into focus. The 100-bar moving average at 1.15362 is currently providing support, while the 200-bar moving average at 1.15294 sits just below. As a result, the market is now caught in a battle between buyers defending the moving averages and sellers leaning against the 38.2% retracement level.

Admittedly, the range is narrow, but these are the levels traders are using to define risk and determine short-term direction. A move above 1.1554 would increase the bullish bias and shift attention toward the 50% retracement at 1.15714. Conversely, a break below the 100- and 200-bar moving averages would tilt the bias back to the downside and give sellers more control.

For now, the next meaningful move is likely to come from a break of either the resistance at the 38.2% retracement or the support provided by the converging moving averages below.

Looking at the GBPUSD hourly chart, the low price today reached 1.3306, coming within just 1.5 pips of the key swing low established in May. That proximity gave buyers a clear risk-defining level. Traders willing to buy near support could place a stop just below the May low, risking only a small amount if the level failed. The support held, buyers stepped in, and the price began to rotate higher. Those traders were able to risk a little in pursuit of making considerably more.

The subsequent rally carried the pair back toward a well-defined swing area between 1.33658 and 1.33739, marked by a series of swing lows dating back to mid-May (see red circles on the chart below). What had been support was broken on Friday, turning it into a potential resistance zone. As the price rebounded today, sellers had their own risk-defined opportunity. They could lean against that resistance area and place stops on a move above it, once again risking a little for the possibility of making more than a little.

The resistance zone held, and the price has since rotated back lower into the middle of the broader trading range between 1.3304 and 1.33739. As a result, the market remains caught in a battle between buyers defending support below and sellers protecting resistance above.

The key point is that both sides are operating from levels that are visible to everyone. These are not fundamental opinions or forecasts. They are objective price levels that allow traders to clearly define their risk. In the end, that ability to manage risk—not predict the future—is what often drives trading decisions and creates the story the chart is telling.

What next?

Ultimately the price going to trade outside of that range. Traders will start to look for a break and momentum in the direction of the break. In the video above I explained the dynamics in the targets in either direction when there is a break.

The decline extended to a low of 0.7019 before buyers stepped in as U.S. stocks reversed higher and Treasury yields moved lower. That rebound lifted the AUDUSD back above the 50% retracement of the rally from the late-March low to the early-May high at 0.70549, and briefly pushed the pair back above its 100-day moving average.

However, the recovery lacked follow-through. The rally stalled just short of the former May low at 0.70789, with the high reaching only 0.7077. Since then, the pair has rotated lower and is once again trading around the 50% retracement level.

From a technical standpoint, the inability to reclaim and hold above the 100-day moving average keeps the sellers in control. For buyers to regain the upper hand, the price needs to move back above that moving average and remain there. Until then, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within a broader bearish shift.

On the downside, the next target zone comes in between 0.7002 and 0.7014. A break below that support area would increase the focus on the 0.6938 to 0.6962 region.

One factor supporting the rebound case is the improvement in risk sentiment. U.S. equities have extended their gains, with the NASDAQ up 466 points, or 1.81%, at 26,175, and back above its 200-hour moving average at 26,081.76. That is typically a positive backdrop for the Australian dollar and could encourage additional risk-on flows into the AUDUSD.

However, despite the strength in equities, the AUDUSD has been unable to generate a sustained rally. That relative underperformance suggests sellers remain active, and reinforces the importance of the 100-day moving average as the key line separating a deeper recovery from a continuation of the recent decline.

In the video above, I break down the key technical levels driving both indices and explain why the S&P has seen a modest improvement in its outlook while the NASDAQ remains under greater technical pressure (sellers more in control). I also outline the levels traders should be watching that would either renew downside momentum in the S&P 500 or strengthen the bullish case for the NASDAQ by shifting its bias back to the upside.

As always, the battle around key moving averages and recent swing levels will be critical in determining which side gains the upper hand in the days ahead.