The test of the 157.51 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for a short position on the US dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level around 157.16.

Today, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.25%, with the board voting 8-1 in favor of the decision. The key announcement was that core inflation had reached the 2% target for the first time. Kazuo Ueda elaborated on this point during his press conference. He said that core inflation had reached a level consistent with the target, but immediately added that the regulator needed to monitor the risk of inflation exceeding it. According to Ueda, the main question now is whether medium- and long-term inflation expectations have become anchored near the target. For this reason, "we have not yet reached the target." Ueda emphasized that financial conditions remain accommodative and that the Bank of Japan will adjust its policy as necessary to ensure that inflation stabilizes around 2%. He did not specify when the next rate hike might take place.

In the second half of today, attention will shift to the United States. The October Chicago PMI is expected to decline to 55.8 from 58.8, followed by a speech from Federal Reserve official Mary Daly. In a recent interview, she said that further rate hikes would probably be necessary, but there was no urgency, and the labor market remained stable. In my view, following Ueda's comments, USD/JPY will remain relatively stable around its recent levels, while the pair's direction will depend primarily on whether Daly reinforces the Fed's hawkish stance.

As for the intraday strategy, the main focus will be on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry level around 157.38 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 158.07 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.07, the plan is to close long positions and open short positions, targeting a 30–35-point move downward from that level. The pair may advance today only if US economic data are strong. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests the 156.97 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 157.38 and 158.07.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell USD/JPY after the 156.97 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.44, where the plan is to close short positions and immediately open long positions, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests the 157.38 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 156.97 and 156.44.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3400 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right point to enter a long position on the pound. As a result, the pair reached the target level of 1.3437.

Today, external factors are more important for the pound than domestic news. Following weak lending data on Thursday and a relatively uneventful UK budget announcement, the currency is trading while awaiting developments in the United States. The first event will be the October Chicago PMI, which is expected to decline to 55.8 from 58.8. This is still a relatively high reading, so a significant blow to the dollar is unlikely. However, the weaker the figure, the more support it will provide for those who believe that US economic growth is uneven. The main event will be a speech by Federal Reserve official Mary Daly. Her most recent comments were made on October 14. At the time, Daly said that further rate hikes would probably be necessary, but there was no urgency, and a measured decision would be preferable to reacting to limited information. She described the labor market as stable and emphasized that the risks of persistently high inflation remained elevated. She had also previously said that monetary policy was in a good position and that rising yields did not provide a reason to change interest rates. For the pound, this stance implies cautious support for the US dollar without any sharp moves.

As for the intraday strategy, the main focus will be on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3440 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3479 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3479, the plan is to close long positions and open short positions, targeting a 30–35-point move downward from that level. The pound may advance today if US economic data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3416 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3440 and 1.3479.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the pound after the 1.3416 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3383, where the plan is to close short positions and immediately open long positions, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound could return if US economic data are positive. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3440 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3416 and 1.3383.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1195 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right point to enter a long position on the euro. However, the pair rose by only 10 points, and that was the end of the move.

The euro advanced following positive economic data, and the most important aspect of this move was not the figures themselves but the picture they painted. Throughout October, the market had been concerned that high energy prices and elevated interest rates would begin to seriously weigh on the European economy, with each new data release testing the strength of these concerns. Today, those fears have eased. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, compared with a forecast of 0.2%, demonstrating greater resilience than expected. The German economy also proved stronger than anticipated, while French prices, by contrast, accelerated more than forecast. This is a combination of factors that the ECB could only partly have hoped for. Economic growth remains resilient, which means the central bank retains the flexibility to continue fighting inflation.

Yesterday, the ECB left interest rates unchanged, and the market took the pause in stride. It still expects the final rate hike of the cycle to take place in December, when new staff projections are released and the deposit rate rises to 2.75%. Today's data have added further support to this scenario.

Next, attention will turn to the October Chicago PMI. The index is expected to decline to 55.8 from 58.8, suggesting a slight cooling in regional business activity. The figure alone is unlikely to change the overall picture, but combined with yesterday's consumer spending data, which showed growth of just 0.5%, it could reinforce the impression that the US economy is being sustained primarily by business investment. Mary Daly will speak afterward, and her previous position is worth keeping in mind. Following yesterday's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and the lack of a clear signal from Warsh regarding December, her comments may offer clues about how the committee views its next move.

As for the intraday strategy, the main focus will be on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro can be bought today when the price reaches the level around 1.1211 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1243. At 1.1243, the plan is to close the position and also open a short position on the euro, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may advance today if US economic data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1191 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1211 and 1.1243.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1191 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1160, where the intention is to close the position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Selling pressure could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1211 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1191 and 1.1160.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

At that time, the ECB reacted cautiously to the newspaper rumors, saying Lagarde was focused on her work and had made no decision to step down. In essence the regulator neither confirmed nor denied the reports. Later Lagarde herself acknowledged the possibility of an early departure but gave no specifics. Over time the story faded to the second or third tier and then died down.

So, yesterday's statement sounded both unexpected and, in a sense, predictable.

The political subtext is fairly transparent. France faces presidential elections next spring that could significantly complicate Paris's ties with Brussels. One likely scenario is a second round between far-right Marine Le Pen and radical leftist Jean-Luc M-lenchon. According to Reuters, Le Pen currently leads polling. While it is premature to declare any candidate certain, the odds are high that the winner will come from one of the two poles—right or left.

An early departure by Lagarde allows the successor to be agreed upon while Emmanuel Macron is still president, preserving the influence of the current French administration over the staffing decision. That is important because the appointment is for eight years. You could say Lagarde is "playing along" with Brussels by helping to pre-empt a potentially contentious issue. Although she frames her resignation as a desire to "speak more freely on issues beyond monetary policy," the political motives are obvious.

Against that backdrop, the key question is who will succeed Lagarde as ECB president. The names most frequently mentioned are former Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot and former Bank of Spain governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos, who now heads the Bank for International Settlements. De Cos looks the most likely candidate, including in a Bloomberg poll published last week: 12 economists named him, while nine named Knot. In Spain de Cos enjoys support from both Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and opposition leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo.

It is also notable that Spain has never had an ECB president, and appointing a hawk like Boris Vujcic as vice chair could bolster the position of a more moderate candidate such as de Cos.

What to expect under his leadership? Many analysts characterize Knot as a "pragmatic hawk," while de Cos is seen as more dovish. Yet both nominees are expected to preserve policy continuity at the ECB.

In my view, de Cos will pay more attention to the risks of over-tightening and will try to balance the fight against inflation with support for growth. But do not expect the ECB to cut rates immediately on his arrival; decisions remain the remit of the Governing Council, and the president's role is to organize debate, help forge consensus, and convey the bank's collective position to markets. Certainly the president's influence goes beyond a single vote, but the chair cannot unilaterally set policy. That said, in the event of a tie the president's view can be decisive.

Yesterday's personnel story effectively eclipsed the ECB's October meeting, which turned out to be uneventful. The regulator left rates unchanged and used well-worn language. On the one hand the ECB kept open the possibility of a rate hike in December; on the other it stressed relative stability of core inflationary pressures and the absence of a meaningful pickup in wage growth. Tighter financial conditions were another restraining factor. Overall the bank had to weigh the risk of entrenched high inflation against the risk of excessively cooling domestic demand.

Reacting to yesterday's events, EUR/USD retreated from lows but failed to secure a firm foothold back in the 1.12 area. I view this rise primarily as a correction amid broader dollar weakness and a temporary euro boost from the ECB's still-priced-in December hike. However, the ECB did not toughen its stance further, so there is no basis for a sustained euro appreciation.

US macro reports yesterday were, conversely, dollar-friendly: US Q3 GDP rose 3.4% y/y (forecast 3.2%), and personal consumption rose 3.8%. Strong demand accompanies accelerating inflation, allowing the Fed not only to maintain a hawkish stance but to toughen it further.

Thus, I still see the dollar as having the upper hand. Both central banks—the Fed and the ECB—could tighten further at their December meetings. But the Fed rests on firmer domestic demand, while the ECB must factor in rising risks of economic slowdown. A change of ECB president will not eliminate that difference. Therefore, the euro pullbacks should be regarded as shorting opportunities, with a primary target at 1.1130 (the lower Bollinger Band on D1).

Last night, the Fed released the results of the penultimate meeting of the year. Overall, no major policy changes were made, and no striking announcements were issued. Fed chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains elevated, but that the current state of the economy and the labor market gives the regulator room to raise borrowing costs further to cool the consumer price index. In other words, the Fed continues to follow a clearly stated trajectory—raising the policy rate at roughly every other meeting until inflation shows signs of slowing.

What does this tell us? First, there is no explicit terminal rate the Fed is aiming for or a ceiling above which it will not tighten. If after the third hike — tentatively expected in March next year — inflation is still rising (regardless of the drivers), the Fed will have to keep tightening. For the pound, this outlook is not a problem: sterling trades technically, and GBP/USD traders do not hit the sell button every day on every pretext. Markets are also watching the Bank of England, which could begin its tightening cycle as soon as next week. For the euro, however, this is problematic because the market has seen no positive factors for the currency for two months.

In practice, the euro is either falling or flat. So we continue to point out that the euro's decline over the past two months is not primarily due to central bank policy, geopolitical tensions (the pound is also a risk currency), protests within EU countries (those have largely faded), or France's budget problems (the US also has budget issues). The euro falls because the euro falls. Unfortunately, there is no better explanation.

Returning to Kevin Warsh and his innovation. From 2027 the Fed will again hold eight meetings per year as before, but one meeting will be devoted to discussing monetary strategy rather than voting on the policy rate; no policy communique will be issued on that occasion. From 2028 there will be two such "non-voting" meetings, and the FOMC will make rate decisions at only six meetings per year.

Warsh explained the change by citing the need to leave intervals rich in data for analysis and to allow time for intellectual reflection and strategic discussion. At present Warsh's initiative raises questions: why is it needed at all? The eight-meeting schedule has been used by the Fed since 1981. No prior Fed chair thought separate strategy meetings were necessary. In the past there were occasional proposals to cut the number of rate meetings, but those ideas were rejected because the central bank would lose the ability to react quickly to economic changes. Warsh is not deterred; he believes time to think will benefit the economy and the Fed. In any case, the Fed is leaving itself progressively less room to maneuver.

Trading recommendations for EUR/USD:

EUR/USD continues to move lower, but we still view the decline as a correction ahead of a new uptrend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains unfavorable, yet in 2026 geopolitics first and then the Fed's hawkish stance provided strong support for the US currency. While price trades below the moving average, you can consider shorts with targets at 1.1108 and 1.0986. Above the moving average longs are relevant with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1353.

Trading recommendations for GBP/USD:

GBP/USD has begun an uptrend that could become a lasting trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the US economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar weakness. 2026 has so far been positive for the dollar because geopolitics and inflation pushed capital to safety and forced the Fed back to tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, the pair remains flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, which supports a medium-term bullish view on sterling. Consider longs with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3489 if the price trades above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows downside trading with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3184.

Explanations for the illustrations:

- Regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.

- The moving average (settings 20, 0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which to trade.

- Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.

- Volatility bands (red lines) mark the likely price channel for the next 24 hours based on current volatility.

- The CCI indicator entering oversold (below -250) or overbought (above +250) territory signals an impending trend reversal.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price is moving within a broad, primary descending channel (in blue), which reflects the overall negative trend. Overlaid on this is a steeper, secondary descending channel (in pink) that exerts direct downward pressure, driving the price toward a succession of new lows. Notably, the price is currently positioned near the lower boundaries of these channels, showing minor fluctuations as it attempts to establish a temporary support base following a rebound from the most recent local low.

Interaction with Pivot and Resistance Levels: The price faced early downward pressure after failing to hold above key pivot levels—specifically the weekly pivot point at 81,468.88—as well as the upper resistance level (Weekly R1). As a result of these pressures, the price broke below the support lines, trading beneath key support levels. It moved toward the first weekly support level (Weekly S1)—located near 78,039.02—which was temporarily breached before the price attempted to stabilize near its current levels.

Pivotal Support and Resistance Levels.

Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 78,500.00 (an intraday resistance level and the previously broken floor of the sub-channel).

Second Resistance: 80,000.00 (a major psychological barrier and an area where reversals have previously occurred).

Pivotal Resistance: 81,468.88 (the Weekly Pivot point, which serves as a trend-defining boundary).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 77,000.00 (a psychological barrier, the current intraday trading focal point, and the present support level).

Second Support: 75,802.10 (the second weekly support level, Weekly S2).

Major Support: The 74,500.00 area and below, should the price collapse continue and selling momentum intensify.

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations.

Bearish Scenario (Primary):

The negative trend remains dominant and is the most likely outcome as long as the price continues to trade below the nearby resistance levels and the Weekly Pivot point. Recommendation: It is advisable to sell into any corrective upward rebound toward the 78,500.00 – 80,000.00 range, provided these levels continue to cap any price advances.

Technical Targets: Aim for the psychological support level at 77,000.00, followed by an extension toward the second weekly support level at 75,802.10.

Corrective Bullish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if significant buying pressure emerges, successfully lifting prices from current lows and breaking through technical resistance levels.

Confirmation Condition: A clear hourly candle close above the 80,000.00 level.

Technical Targets: This would pave the way for a deeper positive correction, targeting the 81,468.88 level, followed by an approach toward the first weekly resistance level at 83,705.80.

Risk Management:

During periods of sharp declines and high negative momentum in cryptocurrency markets, avoid entering trades indiscriminately. It is essential to strictly adhere to rigorous capital management rules, limiting risk to a maximum of 2% per trade. Furthermore, ensure that stop-loss orders are placed with precision to protect your portfolio against sudden, severe reversals and volatility.

Price Action on the Bitcoin Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at 77,518.70, below the descending channel on the daily timeframe. It has experienced a sharp decline and intense selling pressure, falling beneath key pivot levels—specifically the monthly pivot point at 82,012.69.

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday's and Today's):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected immense selling pressure and a violent drop that broke through significant support levels, bringing the price very close to the first monthly support (Monthly S1) at 76,629.19.

Today's Candle: Indicates a continuation of negative momentum, with the price attempting to consolidate below current levels amid clear dominance by the bears (sellers).

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): This remains highly probable as long as the price stays below the monthly pivot point and nearby resistance levels. The decline is likely to continue, targeting a test of the first monthly support (Monthly S1) at 76,629.19—with the potential for further downward movement should this support level be broken.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): This would be triggered if significant buying power emerges, successfully lifting the price and initiating a corrective rebound toward testing nearby resistance levels.

The global economy and markets are reacting with volatility to several dangerous factors at once. Global oil inventories have fallen to critical lows amid escalation in the Persian Gulf and logistics disruptions, pushing prices higher and threatening a hit to winter demand.

Major holders of Ethereum are dumping coins en masse, creating the risk of a rapid price collapse.

Intel shares plunged after a grim outlook and production problems that exacerbated the PC market crisis.

Even the presentation of an innovative touchscreen MacBook was met with a cautious investor reaction, reminding the market of margin pressure from pricier components.

In this article, you will find a detailed analysis of each of these stories and their possible consequences for markets and investors.

Oil: empty tanks, hot Hormuz, and specter of $200 per barrel

Global oil stocks in many regions have hit critical lows, absorbing this year's supply shock. Energy Intelligence reported this grim development on October 29.

Crude and fuel prices are creeping up and, paradoxically, those higher prices are now the thing that prevents a full market collapse, artificially compressing consumption. Experts call it an alarming bell—the market is balancing on an edge, and high prices are the only way to restore equilibrium in this tense system.

Geopolitical fuse and US midterms

Pressure on the market grows daily as the Middle East war enters its ninth month. The longer the conflict continues, the more desperate countries and firms become to preserve strategic stocks. And although in recent weeks more oil has been evacuated from hot spots than at the crisis' start, the clouds over the Persian Gulf are thickening.

The market watches the calendar nervously: the US midterms are on November 3. Fears that Washington might strike Iran are already priced into the barrel. Tehran, in turn, openly threatens retaliatory measures in the Persian Gulf.

Logistics nightmare and Vitol's warning

Numbers may appear comforting at first: Vitol CEO Russell Hardy reports 14m b/d are being exported from the Gulf. But the devil is in the details.

Speaking on October 6 at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Hardy clarified: this is not simply production volumes but what can be physically moved through the hot zones—roughly 12 m b/d of crude and 2 m b/d of products.

Hardy's warning sounds like a sentence: if the corridor narrows to 10 m b/d, then on the eve of winter energy markets will face harsh destabilization because Western stocks are depleted. A full stoppage of flows, he estimates, could throw benchmark prices up to nearly $200 per barrel.

The disruptions have become a chain reaction: crude was hit first, then products, and now the issue has developed into a full shipping crisis. Freight rates are soaring "almost parabolically," and the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a risk zone: between October 2 and 5, three tankers were attacked there.

Empty shelves in global economy

The dry but frightening statistics confirm the world has little to sell.

The IEA reports that by the end of September, observed global oil stocks were 509m barrels below pre-war levels, and on-shore storage has fallen to lows not seen since 2016.

Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser paints an even bleaker picture: "Commercial inventories are down to less than 6 bn barrels, and the overwhelming share of that is effectively inaccessible."

The situation in the US is no better. For the week ended October 23, crude inventories fell by 1.9m barrels, contrary to expectations of a build. Gulf Coast storage levels are at lows not seen since December 2024.

The IMF warns of the worst-case scenario: stocks are rapidly approaching the line beyond which "non-linear price jumps" begin. In plain language, the market could simply explode.

While politicians puzzle over November's outcome and logisticians count frayed nerves and freight rates, financial markets have their own answer to global uncertainty. Volatility is the keynote of this autumn, and it opens colossal opportunities for those who can read the trends.

Key trading instruments discussed here are available for active trading on the InstaForex platform. Do not miss the chance to profit from global macro shifts. Open an account on InstaForex now and download the mobile app to keep a finger on the pulse of the oil market and trade with one click wherever you are.

Mass whale exodus: why Ethereum is on brink of $2,000 fall

Largest Ethereum holders, known as whales, are urgently dumping assets. In just a few days they cut positions by a substantial 160,000 ETH, removing more than $348m from the market. At the same time exchanges accepted roughly 100,000 coins. These alarming figures are reported by analytics platform Santiment and cited by 24/7 Wall St.

This mass sell-off has been a severe blow to the second-largest crypto, which was already in bad shape. In October Ether fell 12.4%, and year-to-date investors have already suffered a 20.8% decline.

Against that backdrop crypto analyst Ali Martinez sketches an especially bleak scenario. He says that if Ether cannot hold above $2,385 and exchange reserves remain high, a drop to $2,000 will become only a matter of time.

"Perfect storm" for Intel: why chip giant plunges 20% in one day

Thursday, October 29, was a cold shower for Intel bulls. Shares plunged more than 20% in pre-market trading. Only the day before, the company had reported strong third-quarter results, and its stock was up roughly 150% YTD.

Instead of the anticipated triumph, investors got a bitter disappointment. Analysts polled by LSEG had hoped for revenue above $18bn (Bloomberg), but Intel guided to Q4 revenue of $15–16bn and non-GAAP EPS of only $0.25. The market had priced $0.43 EPS and roughly $17.07 billion in revenue. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be just 38%.

Wall Street's dreams crash into reality

Instead of the expected triumph, investors were bitterly disappointed. Analysts polled by LSEG—some of whom had hoped for revenue above $18bn (Bloomberg)—were met with harsh numbers.

Intel now expects Q4 revenue of $15–16bn and non-GAAP EPS of just $0.25. By comparison, the market had modelled $0.43 per share and roughly $17.07bn in revenue. Adjusted gross margin is now forecast at about 38%.

PC crisis and memory shortage

What went wrong? The industry's long-running PC slump is the main scourge. CFO David Zinsner did not sugarcoat it: "We expect the PC decline to continue at least into mid-next year."

A memory shortage has driven component prices higher and cooled laptop and desktop demand. Intel now expects the PC market to fall about 12% this year, and another 10% in 2027.

Explosion in Israel hits company's pocket

But macro was not the only problem. In October a blast at Intel's Kiryat Gat fab (Israel) disrupted production. The plant, which manufactures data center chips on Intel 10 process nodes, was shut for two weeks.

Zinsner said the incident will cost roughly $300m of Q4 revenue and cut gross margin by 200 basis points. He added that similar financial pain will hit in Q1 next year while engineers assess which damaged wafers can be salvaged.

Touchscreen at multibillion cost: why new touchscreen MacBook Pro and Apple shares

You would expect a revolutionary product to excite investors, yet the market greeted Apple's loud new product with skepticism. On October 28, Apple shares slipped after the announcement of the first Mac with a touchscreen. Benzinga notes the stock pulled back slightly from its all-time high on October 23.

The headline device was a MacBook Pro with a ProLED XDR display. The event marked a real break with decades of precedent: Apple had long resisted adding touch to its laptops. "Yes, we're adding touch to Mac," CEO John Ternus said, surprising journalists and analysts.

The new models use M5 Pro and M5 Max chips and a leading-edge tandem OLED display; they ship Friday, November 6. But the price is steep: the 14-inch starts at $2,899 and the 16-inch at $3,399. CNBC's testers were critical, calling the touchscreen "entirely optional" and unlikely to change most users' habits.

Investor euphoria quickly gave way to cold calculation. Now all eyes are on Apple's Q4 financial report, due after the close on Monday, November 2. Analysts wonder whether the company can sustain its premium valuation and how severely rising memory chip prices will hit margins.

Should investors panic about the local pullback? Unlikely. The drop was mostly cosmetic. Apple shares remain about 28% higher than a year ago, and the technical picture gives no reason to doubt that the long-term uptrend has broken. Bulls remain in control, and the market is merely taking a small pause ahead of major news.

Want to trade such market moves and profit from tech news? Apple shares and other top instruments are available on the InstaForex platform. Open an account now, download the mobile app, and stay connected to global financial markets.

Donald Trump keeps insisting the Middle East war will end soon, diesel prices worldwide will "collapse," and he is the best president in the country's history. While the world pays a double price for energy, the White House leader is preparing a new military operation against Iran—apparently hoping to end the conflict quickly in his own original way. At the same time, Trump openly insulted Norway, which he claims maliciously denied him the Nobel Peace Prize even though Norway is not the prize giver. Trump was offended by Oslo and says he was unfairly denied the award because he "ended eight wars." Eight wars, four of which never began and two of which continue.

I should remind readers that two years ago, when Donald Trump was not yet president, he promised to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict in 24 hours. Then 24 hours became a week, then a month, and by October 2026 Trump had promised to end the Ukraine-Russia war for two years. When the president was reminded of his 24-hour pledge, he replied that he had been misunderstood and had spoken figuratively. That, in a nutshell, is all you need to know about the American leader's promises.

If Trump promises a quick end to the war with Iran, prepare for a prolonged war. It is noteworthy that Donald Trump does not actually want to wage a Middle East war. Pentagon weapons stocks are shrinking fast and will take years to replenish. Trump understands well that new strikes on Iran will change nothing. Yet the US president cannot back down, even though he would very much like to. He was the initiator of the campaign, arguing that "Iran already pointed its nuclear missiles at the US and other countries." Now Trump cannot simply exit the conflict unless there are guarantees of complete destruction of Iran's nuclear arsenal.

And there is no doubt Iran still has nuclear feedstock and enrichment capacity. In the months of relative pause Iran almost certainly used the time to move nuclear materials and disperse them to the most inaccessible, secret locations. So Trump may launch new strikes, but that will not achieve his stated goals. In my view the Middle East conflict will not only continue for a long time; it will grow. Israel, Yemen, the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia are already drawn into the fighting. In coming weeks other Gulf states may join.

Other articles to read:

EUR/USD analysis. October 30. EUR starts recovering?

Wave picture for EUR/USD

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, the instrument remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E segment. However, this structure now looks fully formed and may be finishing. In my view this is a good time not only to buy the euro but also to expect a full bullish leg of the trend. On the higher timeframe, one should expect a rise to at least the 1.17–1.18 area. The failed attempt to break 1.1126, equal to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (lower chart, higher timeframe), also points to market readiness to buy.

Wave picture for GBP/USD

The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct A-B-C corrective structure that may be complete. A similar structure in EUR/USD may also be finishing. If that reading holds, the pound has completed the decline that troubled many traders. Sterling could then not just build a corrective wave but move into a full bullish leg with targets above the peaks of waves B and D—i.e., above the 1.37 area. I think now is a good time to form long positions.

Core principles of my analysis:

1) Wave structures should be simple and comprehensible. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.

2) If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.

3) There is never 100% certainty about direction; always use protective stop-loss orders.

4) Wave analysis can be combined with other methods and trading strategies.

A rate at 1.25% was expected by all, but the wording of the statement became the main story. For the first time the Bank of Japan said core inflation has reached the 2% target—the end point of a path that began in 2013 with massive stimulus pledged to achieve the goal within two years. The target proved elusive, and sustained price rises returned only after nearly a decade. Core inflation is not measured by a single metric; it is a combination of consumer prices and inflation expectations adjusted for subsidies and other short-term factors. Expectations after decades of deflation rose slowly, and therefore Kazuo Ueda recognized the target as achieved only now.

The vote was tougher than in September. The decision passed by 8-1, whereas in September the move was 7-2, with doves Asada and Sato dissenting. This time the well-known hawk Hajime Takata voted against and demanded an immediate hike. That means the balance on the board has shifted toward tightening. More than 80% of economists now expect a new increase in December, and the baseline scenario is for the cycle to finish at 2% after three 25-bp steps in December, March, and July next year. Yesterday's data supported that view: the BoJ's core CPI for September was 2.4% y/y versus a 1.9% forecast and 1.8% in August.

The Bank also revised forecasts. The key inflation gauge for the next fiscal year beginning in April is now seen at 2.6% versus 2.4% three months ago, with the main reason cited as higher oil prices driven by the prolonged Middle East conflict. For the regulator this means a change of mission: the task is no longer to push prices up but to ensure they do not exceed the target.

The political backdrop is calmer this time. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who before the September meeting repeatedly emphasized the need for further hikes, has been largely silent about Japanese policy. Ueda said he has not spoken with him since the G20 finance meeting on September 1. Prime Minister Takaichi's government said the country no longer needs reflationary policy, and about two-thirds of observers judge it has softened resistance to hikes. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said after the decision she expects close coordination between the bank and government. "I expect the Bank of Japan to continue close communication with the government and conduct monetary policy appropriately, taking economic conditions, prices, and financial conditions into account, to achieve 2% inflation sustainably and stably," she said.

A consecutive hike at this meeting would have been unprecedented in this century and could have unnerved markets, and the rate is already at a 31-year high even if it remains low compared with other G7 countries.

I think the yen gained a solid foundation for gradual appreciation because the regulator recognized the target, and the board is noticeably hawkish. If Ueda confirms willingness to move further and does not dampen December expectations, USD/JPY can slowly drift lower. But I do not expect a sharp move, because the policy rate remains low and a strong dollar and dear oil are restraining factors.

Lagarde, who will resign in February next year, said that current inflation above 3% does not worry her much overall, although it is far from the 2% target. She said she does not see second-round effects and blamed energy prices and the war in the Middle East. In her view, once that is over, prices will return to the desired path, so there is no special reason for alarm.

Lagarde did not speak directly about a December rate hike, but her remarks made clear the central bank will not tolerate persistent high inflation. On the one hand, she reassured markets; on the other, the ECB continued to take a hard line. That partly helped the euro, but then attention shifted to US data.

US GDP was released. The day before, after the Fed's decision to hold rates, Fed chair Kevin Warsh said he expected growth above 3% in Q3. The market quickly priced that in, and the actual figure was 3.4% versus a 3.2% forecast and 2.2% in Q2. There was no particular market reaction to this, because the main focus was on the personal consumption expenditures index. The annual figure was forecast to rise from 3.4% to 3.6% and the monthly September print from 0.3% to 0.5%—and that is exactly how it turned out. The data fully matched expectations and reassured those who feared the Fed had erred by not hiking on Wednesday and needed to be more aggressive. There was no sharp increase in price pressure, even though oil remains at yearly highs and has no sign of retreat, since the Middle East situation remains unresolved.

Now, let us turn our attention to the economic calendar, where there are plenty of events today, especially in Europe. France will publish GDP with a forecast of +0.1%—fairly disappointing—and also CPI with a monthly forecast of +0.2% after a decline a month earlier. Germany's GDP is forecast at +0.1% after +0.3%, which is also weak. Eurozone Q3 GDP is forecast at +0.2% after +0.6% in Q2 and +1.1% y/y. That is very little for the European economy, and weaker prints could put pressure on the euro, although after the US data it felt relatively OK. German inflation is also expected, and growth is forecast to be less strong than a month ago—which may also deter traders from buying the euro.

As for the US, only the Chicago PMI is due today—the consensus is 55.8, a fairly high reading but down from 58.8 last month, so a decline could weigh on the dollar. We will also hear from ECB member Philip Lane, who may say a few words about Lagarde's departure and possible successors. But even that long-anticipated departure did not shock markets yesterday; the euro was trading mainly on the data, and attention will remain on data today.

If the price breaks and holds below, trading will move under that level, and strong US data combined with a cautious ECB would push the pair toward 1.1115. A break of that band would drive the euro down to ~1.1082, where I will look for buys on a 20–25 pip rebound. Longs are considered from 1.1115 or 1.1136 on false breaks.

GBP/USD: the weekly decline has been fully retraced, and the immediate target for bulls is 1.3404. A break and close above that band would open a move to 1.3437, with a farther target at 1.3467, where I plan to sell on a rebound for 25–30 pips. Shorts from last week's high at 1.3404 are only on failed breaks (as in the Asian session) or on a failed break of 1.3437. The bullish market still has a good chance to continue. If bears increase pressure, buy-the-dip trades at 1.3364 on a failed hold or at a false break of 1.3331 are possible. If the situation deteriorates further, I would buy a rebound from 1.3298 for 25–30 pips.

I think the main test for the euro on the last day of October will be eurozone GDP. I fully allow that weak figures for France and Germany could outweigh Lagarde's hawkish words, especially if German inflation disappoints. The pound's outlook is calmer; absent unpleasant surprises in UK data, the bullish stance may hold.

The Bank of Japan kept its overnight rate at 1.25%, as the market had expected, with the board voting 8-1 in favor of the decision. Asked about the pace of future rate hikes, Kazuo Ueda said that the regulator would assess the situation at every meeting, including the next one.

The Bank of Japan declared a major victory in its years-long fight against deflation, much like a captain spotting land after a long voyage through the fog. Core inflation reached approximately 2% for the first time since 2013, when the regulator signed an agreement with the government to overcome deflation. This strengthens confidence in further monetary policy tightening.

Inflation Dynamics in Tokyo

Consumer prices in Tokyo, excluding fresh food, rose by 2.6% year over year in October, compared with 2.7% in September, in line with economists' forecasts.

The market now assigns a 75% probability to an overnight rate hike on December 18. The Bank of Japan pledged to monitor the oil crisis triggered by the war in the Middle East, the inflationary impact of the weak yen, and demand driven by the artificial intelligence boom.

Projections for the Timing of Overnight Rate Hikes

The Bank of Japan's decision brought a difficult week for major central banks to a close. The Fed and the ECB also opted to pause despite persistent inflation, so the Japanese regulator simply had fewer reasons to rush.

The Bank of Japan raised its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 0.7% from 0.6%, although the pace of growth remains modest. Nevertheless, the inflation argument appears convincing enough to justify an overnight rate hike at the next meeting.

Mizuho Securities expects the December move to be followed by further overnight rate hikes in March and June 2027, bringing the rate to its terminal level of 2%. Bloomberg Economics expects the monetary policy tightening cycle to end at the same level after three 25-basis-point rate hikes in December, March, and July.

Bloomberg Economics also notes that the reaffirmed inflation target supports the yen, but high oil prices cast a shadow over this outlook for USD/JPY. The risk of a renewed escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran following the midterm elections has pushed oil prices higher and could prevent the pair from fully benefiting from US dollar weakness amid concerns surrounding artificial intelligence.

The Bank of Japan has achieved a significant milestone in its long-standing fight against deflation. However, the central bank appears to be marking this achievement with restraint rather than making a bold statement.

Technically, on the daily USD/JPY chart, the pair rebounded from its fair value at 158.15 while the Deception-Breakout pattern was unfolding. This indicates weakness among the bulls and supports a focus on short positions targeting 156.5 and 155.1.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide the strongest support for the US currency, while other factors remain insignificant for now. The bears have the upper hand, which is also helping the dollar maintain its strength.

The news background on Thursday was mixed. The ECB indirectly confirmed its readiness to continue tightening monetary policy at least in December, which was as much as traders had expected. It is still too early to discuss what may happen next year. Thus, the ECB's monetary policy stance remains broadly similar to that of the Fed. However, the ECB has already raised interest rates twice, while the Fed has done so only once. Therefore, there are no clear grounds for expecting further declines in the European currency. Nevertheless, the bulls' weakness is currently the key factor for both the euro and the dollar. The euro's advance will depend primarily on traders themselves. A shift in market sentiment can be identified through a break in the wave structure or a close above important levels and zones.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and returned to the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1221. A rebound from this level would favor the dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088, keeping the bears in the game. A close above 1.1221 would increase the likelihood of further gains toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.1325. A bearish divergence is developing on the CCI indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 3,492 Long positions and 443 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 226,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 361,000. The bears remain in control, and the European currency continues to be sold more often than it is bought. This is explained by the complicated geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's determination to bring inflation down. The market still believes that inflation will be reduced to 2% by any available means.

Overall, major market players continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Events of various kinds around the world, which have been particularly numerous in recent years, undoubtedly affect investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of events that could not have been predicted in advance. Traders are therefore left with no choice but to adapt to the changing reality as it unfolds.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union

• Germany – Unemployment Rate (08:55 UTC).
• Germany – Change in GDP in the third quarter (09:00 UTC).
• European Union – Change in GDP in the third quarter (10:00 UTC).
• European Union – Unemployment Rate (10:00 UTC).
• Germany – Consumer Price Index (13:00 UTC).

On October 30, the economic calendar contains five entries, with the GDP reports standing out. The impact of the economic news on market sentiment on Friday may be moderate.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

Long positions may be considered today if the pair closes above 1.1220 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1325. Short positions may be considered following a rebound from 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

During Friday's European trading session, gold (XAU/USD) continued to decline, remaining below the key psychological level of $4,000 and reaching a new monthly low amid expectations of hawkish action by the US Federal Reserve. New US economic data released on Thursday confirmed the resilience and growth of the economy, while inflationary pressures persisted, strengthening market expectations of interest rate hikes as early as December. For gold, an asset that does not generate interest income, this has resulted in a second consecutive session of selling pressure and increased the risk of further price declines.

According to preliminary data, US gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated to 3.4% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, compared with 2.2% in the previous quarter. The figure exceeded analysts' consensus forecast of 3.2%. Meanwhile, according to the US Department of Commerce, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 0.5% month over month and 3.6% year over year in September. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% over the month and 3.1% over the year. This trend reinforces the arguments in favor of further Fed policy tightening amid persistent inflation risks.

At the same time, US Treasury yields declined noticeably. Investors increased their purchases of government debt, buying Treasury bonds as a safe-haven asset. This was driven by weak corporate earnings reports from the technology sector, which raised doubts about whether growing investments in artificial intelligence would generate adequate returns. In addition, renewed expectations of a diplomatic settlement in the Middle East are weakening the US dollar, a traditional safe-haven currency. However, this factor has not yet been sufficient to significantly change the bearish outlook for gold.According to available information, US Vice President JD Vance sent a direct message to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, proposing the resumption of peace negotiations. At the same time, Qatar delivered an updated version of an agreement to Tehran aimed at ending the military confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. Nevertheless, market participants remain cautious due to the escalation of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Statements by the United States and Israel about the possible resumption of strikes after the US midterm elections are also keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated.On Thursday, the Iranian Navy reported that four oil tankers had struck naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident intensified concerns about possible disruptions to commodity supplies and supported oil prices. This, in turn, could stimulate demand for the US dollar during periods of weakness, indicating that the downward bias for gold remains intact: attempts at a corrective recovery are likely to encounter selling pressure.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bearish trend. Prices remain below all major moving averages, while oscillators are in negative territory, confirming the bears' advantage. In the event of a corrective recovery, the first significant resistance will be the horizontal level at 4,025–4,030. A break above this zone could trigger the closure of some short positions and accelerate gold's upward movement toward $4,065 and the psychological level of $4,100. Together, these levels form a significant supply zone. To ease selling pressure, the price will need to consolidate firmly above this range.

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained the upward momentum established the previous day following a rebound from the 1.1100 level, its lowest point since May 2025. However, the pair failed to consolidate above the psychologically important 1.1200 level, despite continued support for the euro from the European Central Bank's hawkish rhetoric and several other favorable factors.

The ECB is signaling a high probability of interest rate hikes at its December meeting, as inflationary pressures intensify amid a rapid increase in energy prices.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to decline from its two-week high, partly amid expectations of progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation in the Middle East and against the backdrop of falling US Treasury yields.

These developments are providing additional support for EUR/USD.

Among the key news developments is a report that US Vice President JD Vance sent a personal letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, proposing a return to negotiations aimed at reaching a peaceful settlement. In addition, Qatari mediators delivered an updated version of an agreement to the Iranian side, intended to end the confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.

However, market participants remain cautious due to the escalation of the conflict between Yemen's Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia. On Thursday, the Iranian Navy Command also reported that four oil tankers had struck naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the risk of disruptions to energy supply routes from the Middle East.

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is keeping crude oil prices elevated.

This, in turn, is fueling inflation expectations and strengthening the position of supporters of a more restrictive monetary policy at the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Such a scenario could limit the US dollar's decline and prevent EUR/USD from extending its upward movement significantly.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market currently estimates the probability of another Fed rate hike in December at approximately 75%. Expectations strengthened following the release of US macroeconomic data on Thursday: US economic growth accelerated to 3.4% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, while inflation in September remained above the central bank's 2% target.

The current fundamental backdrop provides arguments in favor of buying the US dollar during local pullbacks. Therefore, before concluding that EUR/USD has established a sustainable bottom and is ready to resume its recovery, it would be prudent to wait for confirmation of the strength of the upward momentum.

Today, traders should wait for the release of the preliminary estimate of eurozone GDP growth for the third quarter, as well as the latest consumer inflation data for the region, to identify better trading opportunities.

From a technical perspective, the upward correction in EUR/USD stalled near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair's failure to consolidate above this indicator suggests that its short-term upside potential remains limited, despite several price rebounds from support near 1.1100. To ease bearish pressure and transition to a more sustained recovery, the pair needs to break decisively above this level and consolidate there. However, as the oscillators remain in negative territory, the bears retain the advantage.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against the world's major currencies for the current trading day. The US currency recorded its most significant appreciation against the New Zealand dollar.

The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the new upward wave is close to breaking above the previous peak. Thus, the bulls continue to maintain control of the market. FOMC monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook communicated by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Now, the bulls have taken the lead, as the Bank of England may begin its monetary policy tightening cycle next week.

The news background on Thursday offered no negative signals for the US dollar. However, factors that the market had largely ignored in recent months came into play. Despite the US GDP report for the third quarter exceeding forecasts and the core PCE index accelerating, traders continue to recognize that inflation is rising not only in the United States and that the Federal Reserve is not the only central bank taking a hawkish stance. There is a 99% probability that the Bank of England will begin tightening monetary policy next week.

Furthermore, the US economy is currently facing numerous problems. These include the stock market bubble, which many analysts predict will eventually burst; weakness in the labor market; rising government debt; the budget deficit; and annual interest payments on government debt amounting to trillions of dollars. The war with Iran is also having a negative impact on the economy. Geopolitical factors could support the dollar only in the short term. In practice, the currency of a country engaged in an active war rarely appreciates. It is believed that the pound's upward movement could continue in the near future.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3277, reversed in favor of the pound, and rose toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3409. A rebound from this level would favor the US currency and a decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3348. Consolidation above 1.3409 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 38.2% – 1.3467. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 10,043, while the number of Short positions decreased by 16,501. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 54,000 versus 134,000. The bears' advantage has declined again, although it has been increasing in recent weeks. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but the situation is now less clear, as the news background has changed over the past few months.

There is still no confidence in a bearish trend for the pound. However, much will depend in the near future on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. The war between the two countries could resume in full force as early as November.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On October 30, the economic calendar contains no significant events. Therefore, the economic news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today following a rebound from the 1.3404 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3342 and 1.3263.Buying opportunities arose after the hourly chart closed above 1.3342, with a target of 1.3404. This target has been reached. New buying opportunities will arise after the hourly chart closes above 1.3404, with a target of 1.3454–1.3469.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure of the EUR/USD 4-hour chart has become more complex. On the higher time frame (lower chart), the downward trend segment has taken the form of a five-wave structure, A-B-C-D-E, which could be completed at any moment, as it appears quite well-developed. All waves within this segment are approximately equal in size, so it is considered corrective. If this assumption is correct, a new upward impulse segment will begin once the current structure is complete, with targets located well above the 20 level.

On the lower time frame (upper chart), an impulsive wave structure continues to develop, which may belong to wave E of the higher time frame. If this is indeed the case, then no matter how strongly the dollar rises, its strengthening is nearing an end. The presumed wave 5 of E is either complete or close to completion. In any case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment triggered a strong rise in the US currency, but there are few remaining reasons for further dollar appreciation.

The Euro Retains Some Optimism

The EUR/USD exchange rate rose by 40 basis points on Thursday. Frankly, it is difficult to comment on Wednesday's and Thursday's price movements in light of all the events that took place on both days. To recap, everything began on Wednesday evening, when the Federal Reserve made the widely anticipated decision to leave monetary policy unchanged. This could reasonably have triggered selling of the US currency, as the market saw no hawkish signals, while the possibility of a rate hike in December had already been priced in long ago. However, the dollar either declined only marginally or remained virtually unchanged, and the market reaction was negligible.

On Thursday, the ECB meeting followed exactly the same pattern, with no changes to monetary policy and no significant announcements. Initially, demand for the euro even declined slightly, although no dovish signals were identified in Lagarde's remarks. Shortly before the ECB meeting, the United States released GDP and PCE reports. In my view, both reports could have encouraged the market to resume buying the dollar, as the US economy recorded impressive growth in the third quarter, giving the Federal Reserve greater scope to continue raising interest rates with less risk of adverse consequences. As for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, it also increased, making further FOMC policy tightening even more relevant.

Therefore, on Wednesday evening, there were reasons to expect EUR/USD to rise, while on Thursday, a decline in the pair appeared more likely. In reality, we saw exactly the opposite movements. In my view, these movements indicate that the downward trend segment has completed its formation. Even if the upward trend I expect does not begin, the market is at least due for a corrective structure. Consequently, under almost any scenario, the euro is likely to strengthen in the near future. Next week will bring the US congressional elections, a Bank of England meeting, Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate report, and the possible resumption of the war in Iran. Traders will certainly have no shortage of news to follow.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within the global corrective trend segment A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears fully developed and may therefore be complete. In my view, this is a favorable time not only to consider buying the euro but also to anticipate the formation of a full-fledged upward trend segment. According to the higher time frame, the pair could rise to at least the 17–18 level. The unsuccessful attempt to break above 1.1126, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (lower chart, higher time frame), also indicates that the market may be ready for further buying.

The higher time frame shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, which may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to develop.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes in the market structure.

2. If there is no clear understanding of what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out of it.

3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movements. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.

4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

What triggered the move was another round of disappointing results. Amazon tumbled by 7.3% in after-hours trading, while Intel plunged by 23%, both reigniting concerns about capex. Alphabet already suffered a record one-day drop after its results, and Samsung lost 4.1% on Thursday and another ~3% today after profits missed forecasts and the company delayed its shareholder return program. SK Hynix, which had rallied on Wednesday on its report, retreated by 7% today. The three-day uptick in tech that began earlier this week has now been wiped out.

The market's worry is not demand for AI but the price and the speed of monetization. Wednesday's enthusiasm that big companies continue to spend has flipped into fear that spending may not pay back quickly. For now, the damage is concentrated in tech — over 400 S&P 500 constituents still rose on Thursday, while money rotated into defensive assets.

Bond yields strengthened on this risk repricing. US Treasury yields fell by at least 2 basis points across the curve and continued declining through the session; 10-year yields in Australia, Japan, and New Zealand moved about 5 bps lower. US yields are down nearly 40 bps for October and head for the first monthly decline since February.

Crypto markets got another shock: Bitcoin dropped by 5% to about $76,500 after Binance, the world's largest exchange, suspended all deposits and withdrawals following a hack. That incident compounds trust issues in a market already suffering risk-asset outflows.

Geopolitics returned to the front page. Brent crude rose by 1% to about $116/bbl on signs the US may resume strikes on Iran, raising the prospect of renewed regional disruption and supply shocks. Gold slipped below $4,000/oz, and silver fell by 2.4%, heading for its weakest close since November.

In my view, the US market looks set to open lower, particularly in tech, and Treasury yields should continue to drift lower if the AI sell-off persists. Only fresh evidence that AI investments are generating profits will halt the rotation. If oil keeps rising on Iran risk, pressure on equities and gold will intensify, leaving Treasuries and the franc as the main beneficiaries of the sell-off.

As for S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,656. That would signal upside and open the path to $7,679. Holding $7,698 would further strengthen bulls' positions. If the price moves lower amid fading risk appetite, buyers should defend near $7,633. A break below that level would likely push the index to $7,607 and open the way to $7,574.

The reason is rising inflationary pressure while the Federal Reserve has not closed the door on rate hikes. On Wednesday, the central bank held rates but left the possibility of further increases later in the year. Yesterday's data reinforced those expectations: the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, the fastest monthly pace since March. The year-on-year reading came in at 3.6% versus the Fed's 2% target. For non-yielding gold, every such print makes it more expensive to hold than bonds.

Oil is feeding inflation. Prices rose on signs the U.S. may resume strikes on Iran after next week's congressional elections. Brent has nearly doubled year-to-date and traded between $113 and $116 this week. High energy costs squeeze consumers and force central banks to stay hawkish — through this chain, pressure on oil, inflation, and interest rates transfers to the metal.

The second threat comes from equities. Tech stocks led a global sell-off for a second session after another round of disappointing earnings, and investors continued exiting AI trades. This echoes last week's scenario, when the AI sell-off pulled gold down to its July lows because traders sold the metal to cover equity losses. Since then, gold has oscillated around $4,000, and dip buying by Chinese households and long-term investors has so far prevented a deeper fall.

However, many analysts believe the metal is still holding up reasonably well. Traders are watching whether last night's sell-off will spill into today's U.S. session, because that could trigger broader deleveraging and forced selling across markets as liquidity dries up. If that happens, gold could become a source of cash again rather than a safe haven, as it did last week.

Silver looks noticeably weaker in this story. It fell nearly to $51, losing about 15% in October and wiping out the entire gain from December's rally, which briefly pushed it above $120. The gold-to-silver ratio has climbed to its highest since December—meaning one ounce of gold now buys more ounces of silver than at any time since then.

My view is that in the coming days gold will remain around $4,000 with a downward bias. As long as oil stays expensive, U.S. inflation doesn't retreat, and the Fed is poised to hike in December, the metal has little reason to rally convincingly, and any new wave of equity selling could push it back into weakness. Only cheaper oil, softer price dynamics, and falling yields would be likely to reverse the trend — and none of those conditions are visible yet. In my view, silver will lose ground to gold if liquidations continue.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,062 to target $4,124, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farther target is the $4,192 area. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of $4,000; if they succeed, a range break would deal a heavy blow to bulls and push gold toward $3,954 with the prospect of extending to $3,906.

A Wall Street Journal report triggered the move. According to the paper, a senior military commander briefed Donald Trump on Thursday on strike options. The president has repeatedly signaled he could resume air strikes on Tehran after next week's midterm elections. Recall that last week the WSJ and the Associated Press reported that the U.S. had asked Persian Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense campaign; on Wednesday, Vice President Vance sent a letter to Iranian authorities, which Tehran acknowledged. Now it appears one of Iran's chief negotiators, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has taken a hard line, indicating Iran will not compromise its demands to end the war. The diplomatic window that pushed prices down on Wednesday has therefore narrowed.

Note that Brent is up about 12% in October and has reached a six-month high, heading for a fourth straight monthly gain. This is happening despite restored flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where producers have been able to ship cargoes despite high risks to shipping. Low inventories and a refined-product shortfall, partly driven by a string of new Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, are supporting prices.

How this plays out depends largely on the U.S. midterms. Many analysts view the vote as the next major geopolitical catalyst for the oil market. The possibility that hostilities could resume afterward increases uncertainty for an already fragile physical market. Meanwhile, Israel's political position remains unclear: Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats versus 48 for the main opposition, which is not enough to govern without additional partners. Recall that Israel, together with the U.S., initiated operations against Iran in late February with the stated aim of dismantling its nuclear program.

The physical market also confirms the tension. Yesterday, Shell CEO Wael Sawan said current prices no longer look temporary because global stocks are severely depleted. ExxonMobil and Chevron report today, and their comments will add to the picture of how the majors see demand and supply. Such prices benefit exporters and oil companies, while for consumers, central banks, and Republicans ahead of the elections, they are a direct blow—expensive oil fuels inflation and lets the Federal Reserve maintain a hawkish tone.

I believe Brent will remain above $110 through November 3, and any confirmation of strike preparations or a new attack on tankers could easily push it back above $118–$120. A sharp decline is possible only if Washington and Tehran announce concrete steps toward a ceasefire, and Ghalibaf's statement does not promise that. After the vote, the picture will become clearer, and if Trump indeed launches a campaign, oil will receive another strong upward push.

As for the current technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $105. That would set up a target at $109, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is the $112 area. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of $101. If they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push Oil down to $98, with a prospect of extending to $95.

Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in a correction that has been building for weeks. I remind you that recent developments have been more negative than positive. Central banks (notably the Federal Reserve) continue to tighten monetary policy, boosting demand for safe?haven assets rather than for Bitcoin. The Clarity Act remains just a bill; if Democrats win control of Congress, there is a good chance the bill will never become law. Historically, Bitcoin also tends to weaken after US midterm elections. Today that list of negatives grew with the hack of the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance. Taken together, the fundamentals for further crypto market gains look shaky. We do not deny that the asset can rise on any news — the recent dollar rally is proof of that — but at present there are neither technical signals nor fundamental reasons to expect an uptrend.

As already reported, Binance was hit by a hacker attack resulting in the theft of tokens worth $6 billion. What is known so far? Outflows were recorded across five blockchains, and the withdrawn funds were immediately spread across multiple crypto wallets. Tether has already frozen about $1 billion in USDT, which may be related to the Binance breach. As soon as news of the theft leaked online, withdrawals accelerated, triggering a drop in Bitcoin of several thousand dollars. The entire crypto market fell along with Bitcoin, which is logical and expected. At this stage, we believe "digital gold" got off lightly, but the overall fall could have been much larger.

Binance has stated that users' funds are fully safe. How is that possible if tokens were stolen? Safe, but in other people's wallets? Presumably the exchange means that all stolen funds will be returned or compensated to owners. Possibly. Yet the important fact is that the largest crypto exchange was breached. We believe AI was likely involved. If so, such incidents will probably increase as AI capabilities advance — and even more so once quantum technologies reach the required level. In fact, analysts who are not biased toward perpetual Bitcoin appreciation have long warned that the entire Bitcoin network could be compromised. That raises even greater worries for ordinary users' wallets.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin shows signs of a nascent "bull" trend. This trend, as often happens, began with a pump lacking clear fundamental drivers. However, in the near term on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may decline: the price has reacted to the two latest bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. Traders should note that a breakout beyond the daily sideways channel could be a deviation — a deep deviation, but a deviation nonetheless. If so, Bitcoin could head for $70,800 and potentially maintain the downtrend that began last year. We consider short positions to be the most relevant in the near term.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily timeframe, the technical picture for Ethereum has changed completely. Ethereum is now poised to develop a new uptrend. However, bulls can only rely on the weekly chart, where Ethereum is targeting $4,800 — the upper band of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the first bearish FVG did not produce a strong price reaction, while Bitcoin did react to its own FVGs — and Ethereum's price is 80–90% correlated with Bitcoin. With Bitcoin beginning to correct, Ethereum also moved lower. Therefore, near-term declines are expected. Ethereum's targets are around $1,850 and $1,391. On the daily timeframe, Ethereum received a sell signal from the nearest FVG. Several sell signals formed on Bitcoin, so Ethereum does not even need its own additional triggers to fall.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop-Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

Preparing for the US midterms has entered the home stretch: reserved ad budgets and parties' direct campaign spending are hitting record highs. But the week's main political shock came from Frankfurt. ECB President Christine Lagarde has officially announced she will step down early on 7 February 2027 — nine months before her term was due to end. The unexpected departure opens a sharp behind-the-scenes battle for the central bank's top job just as the bloc faces a fresh wave of inflationary pressure. Leading candidates for the vacant post include:

• Klaas Knot, former head of the Dutch central bank
• Pablo Hernandez de Cos, current head of the Bank for International Settlements

Analysts note that the accelerated timetable for the resignation has a political dimension: the new chair will be appointed before France's presidential election in the spring, allowing the incumbent government of Emmanuel Macron to lock in its preferred successor. The euro was the chief casualty of Thursday's trading session, weakening against most major currencies. Selling intensified after the ECB left the deposit rate unchanged at 2.50%. The regulator acknowledged the risks of a prolonged energy shock to prices and growth but pointed to:

• stable core inflation
• muted wage growth
• tight lending conditions, ruling out an urgent need to raise rates

That decision disappointed markets that had priced a 76% chance of policy tightening in December and further hikes through the year. The Governing Council's statement was notably cautious and triggered a synchronous fall in euro-area sovereign yields.

US GDP is strong, but ...

US macroeconomic data showed resilience, yet the market met them with surprising calm. US GDP growth for Q3 accelerated sharply to 3.4% year-on-year from 2.2% in the prior quarter, beating Wall Street consensus. The PCE inflation index rose to 3.6% in September from 3.4% in the previous month. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers jumped to 4.9%, confirming the strength of underlying local demand.

However, a closer read revealed hidden pockets of weakness. Real consumer spending in September was essentially flat, while real disposable income fell 0.3%. The monthly core PCE index came in exactly at expectations (0.3%), so traders had no cause for panic. US market reactions were muted:

• 2-year Treasury yields held near 4.687%
• 10-year yields hovered around the 5.00% mark
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged up to 102.30

The probability of a Fed rate hike in December was revised to 83% (from 85% a day earlier). Recall that the Fed yesterday left the policy rate range at 3.75%–4.00%, with two policymakers voting for an immediate increase. Markets had already priced in a December hike, so the macro print did not trigger a sharp re-pricing of rate expectations. Treasury yields remained stable, confirming there was no panic flight into risk-free government debt. Pressure was contained within a segment of Wall Street equities without spilling over into bond or FX markets.

Meanwhile, investment in AI has become a core pillar of US economic growth: current expert estimates suggest the factor generates up to one-third of aggregate GDP gains. Estimates of AI's direct contribution to US economic growth in 2026 vary:

• Goldman Sachs – 0.1%
• Nationwide – 0.6%
• ING – 0.8%

Three interconnected mechanisms drive the effect: direct corporate capital spending by tech firms, a construction boom in data centres, and a pronounced "wealth effect." Big tech market-cap gains boost the wealth of affluent households, supporting their consumption (this channel may account for up to half of AI's overall macro impact).

However, excessive dependence of the US economy on a single technological theme creates a structural vulnerability. Any cooling of the investment boom or a prolonged correction in tech stocks would directly hit commercial construction, consumer spending and hiring in related sectors, while the real effect of AI on aggregate labour productivity in the economy remains uncertain.

October 30

October 30, 02:50 / Japan / Retail sales (Sep) / prev: 3.7% / actual: 2.7% / consensus: 3.3% / USD/JPY – down

August retail sales in Japan rose 2.7% year-on-year, extending a six-month growth streak helped by government measures to contain prices. The auto sector was the main locomotive of consumer activity, with vehicle sales jumping 17.7%, while non-store retail and department stores also supported spending, partially offsetting weaker outlays on:

• clothing
• machinery products
• fuel

A 1.2% monthly correction in trade turnover merely adjusted a strong July rise, leaving the overall consumer trend intact. Analysts expect retail sales dynamics to accelerate in September. A pickup in household spending would support the Japanese yen.

October 30, 02:50 / Japan / Industrial production (Sep) / prev: 3.9% / actual: 2.7% / consensus: 3.1% / USD/JPY – down

Japan's industrial production posted a 2.7% year-on-year increase for August, recording a moderate slowdown in activity after stronger July results. Although current output remains below long-run historical norms, the sector retains positive momentum amid a difficult global environment and logistical constraints.

Consensus forecasts expect industrial production to pick up in September. A revival of factory activity would bolster the yen.

October 30, 03:30 / Australia / Producer price index (PPI) q/q (Q3) / prev: 0.4% / actual: 1.3% / consensus: 1.0% / AUD/USD – down

Wholesale inflation in Australia surged 1.3% q/q in Q2, the biggest quarterly jump since autumn 2023. The main driver was refineries, which leapt 37.5% amid a global oil rally tied to Middle East tensions, while heavy construction and residential rental costs also contributed, more than offsetting seasonal declines in accommodation services.

Analysts expect wholesale inflation to decelerate in Q3. Easing price pressures on businesses would weigh on the Australian dollar.

October 30, 03:30 / Australia / Producer price index (PPI) y/y (Q3) / prev: 3.0% / actual: 3.6% / consensus: 4.5% / AUD/USD – up

Australia's annual PPI accelerated to 3.6% in Q2, the highest reading since early 2025 and well above the long-term average of around 2.5%. Persistent rises in production costs highlight the deep penetration of commodity shocks throughout value chains.

Analysts expect a further acceleration of wholesale inflation in the next release. Rising price pressure in the production segment would strengthen expectations for tighter monetary policy and support the Australian dollar.

October 30, 06:00 / 09:30 / Japan / BOJ policy decision and press conference / prev: 1.00% / actual: 1.25% / consensus: 1.25% / USD/JPY – volatile

September's Bank of Japan decision raised the policy rate to 1.25%, the highest borrowing cost since spring 1995. The step was taken by majority vote amid mounting inflationary pressure and external calls from U.S. monetary authorities, shortening the interval between tightening rounds to a record three months. Despite dissent within the board, the bank signalled the likelihood of inflation staying above the 2% target for an extended period and potentially approaching 3%.

The forthcoming decision is expected to keep the policy rate at the elevated level. A sustained hawkish stance and the BOJ's readiness to combat persistent price rises would support the yen.

October 30, 10:00 / Germany / Import price index (Sep) / prev: 6.8% / actual: 8.3% / consensus: 10.3% / EUR/USD – up

Germany's import prices posted a sharp increase in August, reaching the highest level since late 2022 as a fresh round of Middle East tensions pushed up energy costs. Purchases of electricity and oil products rose more than 60%, while natural gas and crude oil climbed 30–40%. At the same time, the rally in non-ferrous metals lifted intermediate goods prices, more than offsetting moderate declines in consumer import prices.

Consensus expects import price growth to accelerate further in September. Rising imported inflationary pressure would bolster the case for a continued tight monetary stance and support the euro.

October 30, 10:00 / UK / Nationwide house price index (Oct) / prev: 1.6% / actual: 0.8% / consensus: 0.6% / GBP/USD – down

UK house prices in September recorded the sharpest slowdown since late last year, reflecting subdued buyer activity amid geopolitical uncertainty and expensive borrowing. Although moderate wage growth in the private sector is gradually improving affordability relative to incomes, elevated mortgage rates are suppressing demand, causing a 0.2% monthly fall in prices.

Analysts expect further cooling in October. Continued weakness in the housing market would weigh on the pound.

October 30, 11:55 / Germany / Change in unemployment (Oct) / prev: 5k / actual: 12k / consensus: 5k / EUR/USD – up

Germany's unemployment rose more than twice the August level in September, exceeding long-run averages amid caution in the industrial sector. Still, the labour market remains resilient to external shocks, avoiding large-scale layoffs thanks to government support programs.

Experts expect a sharp slowdown in new unemployment inflows in October. Stabilisation of the labour market in the region's largest economy would support the euro.

October 30, 12:00 / Germany / GDP preliminary (Q3) / prev: 0.7% / actual: 1.0% / consensus: 1.1% / EUR/USD – up

Germany's economy gained momentum in Q2, accelerating relative to the start of the year after upward revisions to preliminary estimates. Although current readings still lag long-term historical averages, Europe's largest economy continues to adapt to higher energy costs and reconfigure supply chains.

Analysts expect growth to continue accelerating in Q3. Stronger macro activity in Germany would support the euro.

October 30, 13:00 / Eurozone / GDP preliminary (Q3) / prev: 0.6% / actual: 1.2% / consensus: 1.1% / EUR/USD – down

The eurozone's economic rebound in Q2 doubled its pace thanks to synchronized household spending recovery, stronger corporate investment and a sharp rebound in goods exports, which rose nearly 4%. The acceleration covered leading economies such as Germany and Italy, with Spain also strong, more than offsetting slower growth in France and restrained public spending.

Markets expect a moderate slowdown in Q3 preliminary estimates. Some cooling of pan-European momentum would weigh on the euro.

October 30, 15:30 / Canada / GDP (m/m) — August / prev: 0.4% / actual: 0% / consensus: 0.2% / USD/CAD – down

Canada's July GDP showed zero monthly growth after a run of solid gains. Stagnation reflected offsetting trends: gains in construction and utilities were offset by declines in manufacturing and oil & gas, while service sector rises in rents, R&D, and hospitality compensated for weaker wholesale and retail trade.

August's report is expected to return the economy to positive growth led by mining and retail. A renewed expansion would strengthen the Canadian dollar.

October 30, 15:30 / US / Social benefits expenditures (Q3) / prev: 1.2% / actual: 1.0% / consensus: 0.7% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

Growth in spending on social and compensation benefits for US civil servants slowed to 1.0% in Q2 after a stronger prior period. Corporate sector wage-related costs rose 0.9%, while regional and local government payouts increased 1.1%. A gradual slowdown in personnel-related expenditures signals easing cost pressures from the labour market.

Analysts forecast further moderation in social benefit spending in Q3. Lower labour cost inflation would weigh on the dollar.

October 30, 16:00 / Germany / CPI preliminary (Oct) / prev: 2.9% / actual: 3.3% / consensus: 3.0% / EUR/USD – down

Germany's September inflation accelerated to levels not seen since late 2023 amid a renewed energy-price surge (+14.9%). Major drivers included:

• fuel oil (+74.9%)
• motor fuel (+37.1%) due to the Middle East supply bottleneck and higher oil prices

Food prices also rose. Core inflation remained at 2.4%, the services sector slowed moderately, and the harmonised EU measure stayed well above the regional regulator's reference.

Consensus expects a cooling in October's CPI. Slower inflation in the bloc's largest economy would ease expectations of further tightening and weigh on the euro.

October 30, 16:45 / US / Chicago business activity index (Oct) / prev: 47.1 / actual: 58.8 / consensus: 56.1 / USDX – down

The Chicago business activity barometer rebounded strongly in September, returning to expansion with the biggest gain since late spring. A 15.5-point surge in the manufacturing component and seasonal new orders supported continued supplier deliveries amid modest inventory drawdowns. The labour component slipped back into contraction due to staff optimisation and outsourcing, while price pressures, despite local easing, remain a burden for firms.

Analysts expect a moderate pullback in the index in October. Cooling regional activity would weigh on the dollar.

October 31, 04:30 / China / NBS manufacturing PMI (Oct) / prev: 49.8 / actual: 50.1 / consensus: 50.0 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

China's official manufacturing PMI moved into expansion for the first time since summer, driven by:

• production accelerating to a nine?month high
• increased purchases of raw materials

However, the upswing came with rising production costs to five-month highs, falling external orders, continued weakness in employment and subdued business expectations amid high external dependency.

Analysts expect the indicator to return to neutral in October. A manufacturing sector on the edge of stagnation would pressure Brent and push USD/CNY higher.

October 31, 04:30 / China / NBS non-manufacturing PMI (Oct) / prev: 49.0 / actual: 50.2 / consensus: 50.5 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down

China's non-manufacturing PMI ended a two-month decline in September, returning to growth thanks to a synchronized pickup in construction and services. Strong expansion was recorded in:

• telecommunications
• satellite communications
• finance and insurance

This offset persistent property-market and capital-market strains, restoring order books, stabilizing employment, and improving six-month business expectations.

Experts expect further strengthening in services activity. Expansion in construction and services would support commodity demand, lifting Brent and strengthening the yuan.

October 30, 09:30 / Japan / Speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda / USD/JPY

October 30, 12:00 / UK / Speech by Clare Mills (Bank of England) / GBP/USD

October 30, 16:00 / US / Speech by Mary Daly (President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) / USDX

October 30, 19:10 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD

October 30, 19:30 / US / Speech by Alberto Musalem (President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) / USDX

Officials from major central banks are also due to speak in the coming days. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility, as they can signal future policy intentions.

Alphabet free cash flow dynamics

Shares of Alphabet plunged by nearly 13%, erasing about $500 billion of market capitalization. It is the biggest one-day market cap drop for the company and the second-largest single-day hit for a US tech name, trailing only NVIDIA's $590 billion wipeout in January 2025.

Technically, Alphabet formed a so-called "death cross" on the daily chart as the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-period EMA, a bearish signal that previously appeared for the mega-cap in April 2025 amid tariff-related turmoil.

Alphabet and death cross — dynamics

The sell-off in Alphabet reminded investors about rotation. Approximately 400 S&P 500 constituents advanced, which limited the broad index's decline for the day despite the tech giant's calamity. However, disappointing reports from Amazon and Intel released after the close raise the risk of another gap lower at the next open. Will buyers rush back in to buy the dip?

Underlying concern remains longstanding: the fear is not simply that AI demand is cooling, but that high funding costs and rising credit risk could force hyperscalers to rein in investment. That possibility is what's sparking panic.

Anthropic IPO will be the final litmus test. The Claude developer's planned offering will be a decisive paper for answering whether the AI boom is over. Anthropic aims to out-raise SpaceX — the Musk company pulled in $86 billion; Anthropic is targeting $100 billion. But do investors still have the capital to pour into AI? November should clarify the picture.

Markets reverberate across asset classes. Big-tech sell-offs trigger risk-off flows that push Treasury yields lower — and that, in turn, weighs on the US dollar.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows mixed signals. Trading in this murky environment is tough, so watch the fair-value tests around 7,725.

Binance's statement highlighted key actions. "We have worked with blockchain partners to freeze the affected assets, and roughly $3 billion frozen on-chain so far," the exchange said. Withdrawals are temporarily suspended and expected to resume within 48 hours, co-founder Yi He said. Binance pledged to cover all losses and insisted that user funds are safe. Let me remind you that the exchange has a SAFU fund of about $1 billion in Bitcoin and held roughly $144 billion in assets before the hack — so the loss is about 4% of that pre-hack balance.

Analysts were quick to point fingers. TRM Labs attributes the theft to an elite North Korean hacker group called "TraderTraitor." "TRM attributes the attack to TraderTraitor, North Korea's elite hacking unit, based on robust on and off-chain intelligence," the firm said. The previous record hack was Bybit in February 2025 (~$1.5B), so this new loss is roughly four times larger. On-chain traces show outbound flows of billions from exchange wallets: about $3.53B on Ethereum, $1.5B in Bitcoin, $628M on Tron, and smaller sums on Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base — total outflow exceeding $5.6B.

The attack was technically sophisticated. The hacker briefly altered the code of one of Binance's hot wallets via EIP-7702, a feature from Ethereum's Pectra upgrade that allows a normal wallet to temporarily behave like a smart contract if presented with a valid private-key signature. The attacker obtained such a signature, set a delegation to their contract-collector, and drained funds — ETH and many tokens, including large stablecoin amounts. To improve success odds, the hacker pre-sent about 50 authorizations with sequential nonces and broadcast them at once; the network accepted only the transaction whose nonce matched at execution time. Binance's preliminary probe points to a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop and access to a service container, while the exchange says it found no evidence of private-key leakage. TRM suspects signing-infrastructure compromise for hot wallets; the final root cause has not yet been published.

Stablecoin issuers moved fast to contain the damage. Tether and Circle froze more than $2.3 billion of stolen funds. Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino said over $1.567 billion in USDT has been frozen and later reported an additional $200 million frozen, stressing that protecting the ecosystem and partners is the top priority. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said the company, working with law enforcement, froze more than $800 million in USDC and continues to assist the investigation. Aave disabled lending markets to prevent the hacker from borrowing against stolen collateral. The ability of centralized stablecoin issuers to freeze tokens proved decisive: they recovered a large share of the stolen funds, something impossible with pure BTC. Still, TRM estimates the attacker still controls more than 420,000 ETH and 18,270 BTC — roughly $2.4 billion — beyond the reach of issuers.

I don't see this turning into an FTX-style collapse. Then, an exchange became insolvent; now Binance has assets, a SAFU fund, and a promise to cover losses, and a portion of the stolen funds is frozen. So a systemic trust crisis is unlikely in my view. But market pressure will remain until withdrawals resume and until it is clear what the hacker will do with the remaining coins.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are targeting a return to $78,500, which would open a path to $79,900 and then $81,700 — a break above which would suggest attempts to restore the bull trend. On the downside, look for buyers near $76,900. A decisive break below that area could push BTC toward $75,300. A deeper target would be about $72,800.

Ethereum

Consolidation above $2,294 would open a route to $2,355, with a further target near $2,398. Clearing that level would confirm a stronger bullish trend and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected near $2,231. A break below that level could rapidly drive ETH toward $2,184. A deeper target in an extended sell-off would be around $2,137.

What's on the chart:

• Red: support and resistance levels where the price is likely to slow or accelerate
• Green: 50-day moving average
• Blue: 100-day moving average
• Light green: 200-day moving average

Crosses of — or the price tests of — these averages typically either halt moves or set the next market impulse.

Starting with stocks: Intel reported earnings above expectations but issued weak guidance for Q4. Revenue is expected to be $15–16 billion, while analysts had expected roughly $17 billion. Intel shares plunged about 16% in after-hours trading. Amazon posted slightly below-expected profit and revenue, and confirmed plans to spend around $220 billion on capex in 2026, mostly on infrastructure. The stock fell about 12%. Recall that concerns about the payback from AI spending have been weighing on the tech sector for weeks and, in turn, on crypto.

The exchange news was even more serious. On October 29, it emerged that Binance was hacked. The exchange's own estimate puts losses at about $6.3 billion; Chainalysis reports about $5.9 billion, and TRM Labs estimates the theft at $6.36 billion at prices at the time of the heist. This is the largest theft in the industry's history — roughly four times the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025. Binance said it found no evidence of private-key leakage from wallets and has suspended withdrawals until it resolves the issue.

Among the stolen funds in the attacker's wallets were roughly 18,270 BTC, over 200,000 ETH, and several billion in USDT and USDC. Approximately $2.7–3.0 billion has been frozen. Tether froze more than $1.57 billion in USDT, and Circle over $800 million in USDC. Still, the attacker retains coins that stablecoin issuers cannot touch — TRM estimates about $2.4 billion of assets, including Bitcoin and Ether. The main market risk is that those coins could be sold into exchanges or laundered through bridges and OTC brokers.

Trust in centralized exchanges is again in question. I believe selling pressure on Bitcoin will persist in the coming days. Beyond the risk-off hit in equities, market participants must factor in potential sell-offs from the attacker's wallets and the temporary suspension of withdrawals on the largest exchange. I allow for a move to $77,400 and lower, and a return above $79,700 is likely only after Binance resumes withdrawals and the equity market stabilizes after earnings.

On Bitcoin

The price is near 78,000 in a range between support at 78,300 and resistance at 78,800, with outer reference points at 77,400 below and 79,700 above. The plan centers on two mirrored directions, each with a breakout and a bounce scenario.

I consider buying in two cases. If price breaks 78,800 to the upside and holds above it, I buy with a target of 79,700, provided price stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; at the target, I take profit and consider a short on the pullback. If a break below 78,300 fails and price returns above, I buy the bounce, targeting 78,800 initially, then 79,700.

I structure selling symmetrically. If price breaks 78,300 to the downside and holds below it, I open a short with a target of 77,400, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 78,800 fails and price returns below, I sell the bounce with an initial target of 78,300, then 77,400.

On Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. Nearest support is at 2,190 and resistance at 2,255 and 2,284.

I buy a break of 2,255 to the upside, holding above it with a target of 2,284, provided the price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break of 2,190 to the downside fails and price returns above, I buy the bounce with an initial target of 2,255 and then 2,284.

I sell a confirmed break of 2,190 to the downside, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 2,255 fails and the price returns below, I sell the bounce, targeting a return to 2,190.

Both indicators are used as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early; decisions are made only after price actually confirms the specified levels.

The test of 158.02 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from zero, prompting dollar buying and resulting in losses. A similar story played out with short positions at 157.84, where the pair did not go on to decline sharply.

Today the yen has strengthened slightly versus the dollar after the Bank of Japan decision. The central bank kept the rate at 1.25% as economists expected, with the council vote splitting 8–1. By comparison, at the September meeting that raised the rate to 1.25%, the vote was 7–2 — so unanimity has increased. The key statement was that core inflation has reached the 2% target for the first time. That acknowledgment helps the BOJ assess how much more tightening is required before stimulus is no longer necessary.

Japanese data this morning complemented the picture. Tokyo core CPI for October came in at 2.6% (forecast 2.6%, prior 2.7%) — in line with expectations, though the pace edged down slightly. Industrial production rose 2.2% month-on-month in September, up from a 1.2% forecast and after a -2.4% print in August; the rebound was noticeably stronger than expected. Targeted inflation and the rebound in production give the BOJ more confidence that domestic demand is gradually strengthening.

The external backdrop also worked in favor of the yen. On Friday, global markets saw increased demand for safe-haven assets: tech equities fell, and oil rose. The yen is again showing signs of returning to a safe-haven role after many years, when large rate differentials and sizeable overseas Japanese investments tended to dominate currency demand during periods of instability.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today as it moves into the entry area around 157.75 (green line on the chart), targeting 158.07 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.07, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-pip reversal from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just beginning to turn up from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 157.51 twice in succession while the MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 157.75 and 158.07.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after 157.51 is breached to the downside (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. Sellers' key target is 157.16, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip reversal from that level). Sellers can return at any time — often a hint from the central bank is enough. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and is just beginning to turn down from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 157.75 twice in succession while the MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit the pair's upside potential and bring about a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 157.51 and 157.16.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.