The GBP/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum, and at present the chart picture looks as though the pound will continue to decline. The price reacted to bearish imbalance 27, which allowed traders to open short positions and opened up new, less optimistic prospects for the pound. However, the chart picture in the foreign exchange market can change rapidly. For example, liquidity could be taken from the low of September 2 today, which would serve as a bullish warning. Tomorrow evening, the Fed meeting will take place. At present, the market cannot predict what decision the U.S. regulator will make, let alone what the dollar's possible reaction to this event will be. Tomorrow morning, the UK inflation report will be released, which could have a fairly strong influence on the Bank of England's decision as early as Thursday. Thus, the pound will not simply be a spectator on the sidelines this week either. Over the next two days, the situation in the foreign exchange market could change several times. The general consensus is that the Bank of England is not expected to tighten monetary policy on Thursday, but at the same time, it is almost guaranteed to decide to raise rates by the end of the year. The August inflation report will either strengthen market expectations of tighter policy or weaken them somewhat. However, the baseline forecast is for one tightening move by the end of 2026.

Over the past month, the dollar has received numerous blows, including the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase the volume of long-term bond buybacks, weak monthly Nonfarm Payrolls reports, a weak annual Nonfarm Payrolls report, a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index, slower GDP growth, and a decline in market expectations for FOMC monetary policy tightening. The only factors that supported the dollar were the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report (for the first time in a long while) and the ISM Services Business Activity Index. Even the latest U.S. inflation report was not favorable for the dollar and did not increase the actual probability of FOMC monetary policy tightening.

Do the bears have any prospects at present? In my view, they have few, but it should be acknowledged that the dollar has entered a favorable period. If the Fed decides to raise the interest rate, the information backdrop for the dollar will become much more favorable. I do not believe that this would trigger a prolonged decline in GBP/USD. In recent weeks, the market has been doing nothing but pricing in an FOMC rate hike. This decision by the U.S. regulator has already been priced in for a long time.

Negotiations between the United States and Iran have failed once again and are no longer taking place. From time to time, Iran and the United States exchange strikes, threats, and ultimatums, which has no effect whatsoever on resolving the conflict or ending the war. No one can currently say how much longer the conflict will continue. However, if it intensifies and escalates, the dollar could receive an additional supportive factor.

Chart analysis shows that the picture changed from bullish to bearish in just a few days following the taking of liquidity from the May highs. The pound reacted to bearish imbalance 27, which triggered a new decline in prices. Imbalance 25 could be the target of the decline, but the possibility of liquidity being taken from the September 2 low should also be taken into account, as this, together with the Bank of England and Fed meetings, could reverse the pair to the upside.

The economic information backdrop on Tuesday did not allow the bears to continue their attacks, as the most important report of the day, concerning UK unemployment, showed a higher figure than traders had expected. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in July, although the market had expected it to rise to 5%. Thus, bearish pressure was weak today.

The overall information backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I cannot expect anything other than a decline in the U.S. currency. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed my long-term expectations. Geopolitics forced the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The chances of FOMC monetary policy tightening remain ambiguous, while the market itself expects tightening, which is the main reason for the U.S. currency's positive sentiment. In my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and random in nature. I would also note that GBP/USD has been trading in a range for an entire year. A range allows traders to expect virtually any movement within its boundaries. Traders have so far been unable to break out of the range.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Retail Sales (12:30 UTC).
• United States – FOMC Rate Decision (18:00 UTC).
• United States – Interest Rate Dot Plot (18:00 UTC).
• United States – FOMC Press Conference (18:30 UTC).

On September 16, the economic events calendar contains five entries, each of which can be considered important, except for the U.S. retail sales report. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Wednesday could be strong throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity was taken from the last two swings and a series of buy signals formed, the bulls may still continue their advance. Unfortunately, however, the bears have taken control of the initiative in recent weeks, and all of the latest bullish patterns have been invalidated. The taking of liquidity from the May 1 swing triggered the decline; a sell signal formed within inverted imbalance 27, and another bearish signal formed in imbalance 27 last week. Thus, traders can now keep their short positions open, and there is room for further declines in both the euro and the pound. The current target for the pound is the 1.3307–1.3333 level. However, I would like to note that the outcomes of the Fed and Bank of England meetings, as well as the UK inflation report, could easily reverse traders' sentiment. The pound itself could also take liquidity from the latest swing.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury jumped above 5% amid hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve. A rise in Brent crude to $107.10 stoked inflation worries and added pressure on gold.

The 10-year yield climbed to 5.02%, a near two-decade high, sparking a fresh wave of selling on global equity markets. Asian indexes fell about 0.7%, European bourses opened in the red, and futures on major US benchmarks extended modest declines. The main driver of the market sell-off is the high probability of another Fed rate hike, signaled earlier by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

A psychological breach of the 5% yield level substantially changes the risk balance for investors, prompting capital to shift from stocks into safe government debt. A widening US fiscal deficit, record government borrowing and huge corporate issuance to finance AI infrastructure are forcing the market to demand a higher term premium. More details via the link.

Brent's rise to $107.10 fuels inflation fears and pressures gold

Global Brent prices rose 1.4% to $107.10/bbl. The latest rally was driven by mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the continued shutdown of a key Saudi pipeline after a series of attacks. Higher energy costs are again becoming the primary pro-inflationary factor for developed economies, leaving regulators with little room to pause tightening.

Rising oil and higher inflation expectations directly hit precious metals, keeping gold just below $4,300/oz. Higher bond yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets and are prompting investors to reassess safe-haven positions. For traders looking to play volatility in commodities and precious metals, oil and metals instruments are available on the InstaForex platform. More details via the link.

Nvidia plans $10 billion anchor investment in record Anthropic IPO

Anthropic, the developer of the Claude neural network, is preparing what could become the largest IPO in history. Insider reports indicate the listing could raise up to $100 billion and value the company at about $2 trillion. Chipmaker Nvidia is poised to act as an anchor investor, planning to commit up to $10 billion to the placement.

Such a move would cement Nvidia's transformation on Wall Street — from a supplier of computer hardware to a strategic financier of the entire AI industry. The anchor commitment follows deepening commercial ties: Anthropic has already contracted tens of billions of dollars of compute capacity based on Nvidia chips. More details via the link.

It appears that the price of gold is heading for further decline; let us examine the chart indicators that lead to this forecast.

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the gold price had been trading within rising price channels representing the trend over the past two months, finding support at the monthly pivot level of 4387.35.

Subsequently, the price encountered resistance at the channel midlines and began to decline, successfully breaking below both the price channels and the monthly pivot level.

Consequently, on the daily chart, the gold price is expected to move toward the monthly support level of 4078.46—a critical level.

Either the price will find support here to resume the uptrend and target the 4387.35 level,

Or this support will be broken, leading to a target at the annual support level of 3830.

This brings us to the weekly chart:

On the weekly chart, the gold price has successfully broken below the rising price channels that defined the trend over the previous two years.

However, a similar breakout occurred previously, and the annual pivot zone at 3830 succeeded in pushing the price back up.

Will this price action repeat itself, with gold finding support at the 3830 level? This is what needs to be monitored.

The trading recommendation is to focus on selling opportunities as long as the price trades below the 4387.00 and 4078.00 levels.

Buying is an option if bullish price action emerges at the 4078.00 support level.

Buying is also possible above the 4387 level.

The price test of 154.94 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for buying the dollar was correct. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, the market's attention will turn to the release of ADP employment data and the Empire Manufacturing Index, which is expected to decline sharply to 14.1 points in September from 20.6 in August. If both indicators come in stronger than forecast, the dollar, in my view, will receive additional support ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.

This scenario is particularly important for the yen, as currency interventions appear to have ceased, leaving the currency without its previous source of support. Strong US data could further widen the already growing yield differential between the dollar and the yen, supporting interest in carry trades and pushing USD/JPY higher on expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance.

At the same time, the policies of the two central banks are moving in the same direction: while the Fed is only preparing for a possible tightening of monetary policy, the Bank of Japan appears determined to act decisively and may raise its interest rate in the coming days. In my view, this prospect is currently limiting more aggressive dollar gains against the yen. Even in the absence of currency intervention, the market is pricing in the risk that the Japanese central bank will narrow the yield gap through its own policy actions rather than by intervening in exchange rates.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point is reached around 154.98 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 155.37 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.37, I will exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pair today is possible, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.73 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 154.98 and 155.37 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 154.73 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.29, where I will exit my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Downward pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.98 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.73 and 154.29 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The price test of 1.3466 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

The UK labor market data proved mixed, and this divergence determined the pound's reaction. On the one hand, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose by as much as 27,800 in August after declining by 11,800 in July. This came as an unpleasant surprise to the market and triggered the first wave of GBP/USD selling. A sharp reversal in an indicator is always perceived more strongly against the backdrop of a previous decline, which is why this component of the report accounted for most of the negative reaction. On the other hand, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%, failing to confirm market concerns about a sharper deterioration in labor market conditions. In my view, this was precisely what prevented the sell-off from developing into something more significant: without an increase in overall unemployment, the arguments for a more accommodative stance by the Bank of England are not as clear-cut as they may have appeared immediately after the unemployment benefit figures were released. As a result, although the pound remained in negative territory, in my view it still has a chance to stabilize if the rest of the day does not bring any new concerns related to the fiscal agenda.

In the second half of the day, the market will focus on ADP employment data and the Empire Manufacturing Index, for which expectations point to a notable deterioration, from 20.6 to 14.1 points in September. If the data comes in stronger than expected, I believe the dollar will see a new wave of demand, providing an additional argument in favor of a rate hike at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. In this situation, the pound will once again be at the mercy of external market factors.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point is reached around 1.3482 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.3515 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3515, I will exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Today, any rise in the pound can only be expected as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3466 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3482 and 1.3515 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3466 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3436, where I will exit my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pressure on the pound could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3482 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3466 and 1.3436 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Due to the pair's low volatility, we were unable to reach the levels I had identified before they were tested.

Today, ZEW published its September data, showing that the German expectations index remained almost unchanged, rising by just 0.5 points to 34.7. The assessment of the current situation changed much more significantly, rising by 14.0 points to -47.1, indicating a gradual improvement in the perception of current conditions. However, the sector breakdown was highly uneven: the financial sector is benefiting from high interest rates, while export-oriented and energy-intensive industries continue to suffer. I believe that this divergence between the relatively more stable German economy and weakening expectations for the euro area best explains why the ECB, which raised its rate on September 10 for the second time since the start of the conflict in Iran, is acting so decisively despite the risks to growth. For the euro, this dynamic means that the market will continue to assess the pair primarily through the divergence within the euro area itself rather than through a single macroeconomic signal. As a result, EUR/USD fluctuations may remain fairly sharp over the coming days in response to any new data from the euro area or comments from ECB officials.

The key event in the second half of the day will be the release of ADP employment data and the Empire Manufacturing Index, which is forecast to fall sharply to 14.1 points in September from 20.6 in August. Nevertheless, if both indicators come in above consensus expectations, I believe this will restore demand for the dollar and give it additional momentum ahead of the Fed decision. For the euro, strong figures would be an unpleasant surprise against the backdrop of the already mixed morning ZEW data, with expectations for the euro area declining while those for Germany changed only slightly. The divergence between the relatively resilient German economy and the overall caution regarding the euro area is already putting pressure on EUR/USD, and strong US data could further reinforce this imbalance in favor of the dollar, leaving the pair with little chance of recovering by the end of the session.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the area around 1.1541 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1568. At 1.1568, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any upward movement in the euro today should be considered only a corrective move. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1529 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1541 and 1.1568 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1529 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1496, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1541 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1529 and 1.1496 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

On Tuesday, the global benchmark yield added five basis points to 5.04% — above the 2023 peak and near the 2007 high. The latest push came from rising oil prices amid growing supply risks in the Middle East.

Fed policy and market expectations

The bond sell-off is lifting rates ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday: investors are now pricing the start of a tightening cycle for the first time since July 2023. If the Fed does not hike, or if Chair Kevin Warsh signals a less aggressive path than the futures market expects, Treasury holders may demand even higher yields as compensation for inflation risk.

It will be very difficult for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged this week without undermining confidence in its fight against inflation. The market is vulnerable not only to an unexpected pause but also to a "dovish hike" — a subtly soft tone at the press conference. The logic is simple: a single 25-bp move barely moves the economy, and given long monetary lags, the Fed usually keeps tightening until a noticeable cumulative amount — 75 bps or more — has been reached.

Dollar correlation with Treasury yields

Meanwhile, the 30-day correlation between the US dollar and 10-year yields has risen in September and closed above 0.40 — the highest in over two months. Wells Fargo points to AI-related spending as a partial driver behind the greenback's strength and the rally in bond yields. Foreign investors are converting currency into dollars to buy equities, while tech giants are issuing debt to finance capital expenditures in AI — both factors pushing bond yields higher.

At the same time, traders are increasingly at odds with central banks over future interest rates. Derivatives price in roughly four more ECB hikes and five for the Bank of England over the next 12 months as inflation fears linked to energy resurface.

Oil sharpens the picture

Oil adds urgency. Brent rose for a second day, trading above $107 and intraday approaching $110 — a high not seen since May. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a bypass route for flows that would otherwise transit the Strait of Hormuz, remains shut after recent attacks, and Aramco has not given a restart timetable. Riyadh is compensating by boosting marine shipments.

Technical view on EUR/USD

Technically, EUR/USD is completing a 1-2-3 breakdown on the daily chart. Selling toward the pivot levels at $1.15 and $1.147 remains relevant. It makes sense to hold short positions initiated from $1.164.

The cause-and-effect here is straightforward: the week before a Fed decision is traditionally a period of reduced risk appetite for the most liquid and institutional crypto asset — Bitcoin — whereas Ethereum in this instance played the role of an intra-crypto allocation vehicle rather than an exit route from the market. Beneficiaries of this rotation were Ethereum holders and certain altcoins with positive flows, while Bitcoin acted as a profit-taking vehicle ahead of uncertainty.

Importantly, the market itself has been able to trade calmly up to the Fed meeting: there was no panic flight from crypto overall, because Bitcoin's outflows were almost entirely offset by inflows into Ethereum and altcoins. Yet the structure of flows indicates that money has largely been reallocated ahead of the decision rather than being redistributed reactively after the rate announcement. That creates the risk that the market's reaction to the Fed could be sharper than implied by the outwardly calm price action of recent days — large institutional positions are already set and merely awaiting a trigger.

My view is that this combination — calm price behavior accompanied by a significant internal regrouping of flows — is the main signal of the week: the market is not afraid enough to flee to cash en masse, but neither is it confident enough to increase total exposure ahead of the event.

Trading plan (BTC)

• Bitcoin is holding in a $76,800–78,600 range. The trading plan is built around two mirror scenarios (breakout and bounce).
• Bull scenario 1 (breakout): A confirmed break above $77,600 opens a buy targeting $78,600, where it makes sense to take profits and consider reversing into a short on a pullback. Entry conditions are mandatory: price must remain above the 50-day moving average, and the Awesome Oscillator must stay positive.
• Bull scenario 2 (bounce): Buy on a failed break below the $76,800 lower band (i.e., price tests $76,800 but a move lower does not follow). Target first $77,600, then $78,600 as the wider technical target if momentum extends beyond the immediate range.
• Bear setups are the mirror image:
  • Short on a confirmed break below $76,800 with a target of $75,800 (moving average above price and Awesome negative).
  • Short on a failed break above $77,600 (rejection), targeting $76,800 and then $75,800.

Trading plan (ETH)

• Ether trades in a $2,477–2,547 range; the logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale.
• Bull scenario 1 (breakout): A confirmed move above $2,500 signals a buy targeting $2,547, subject to the same conditions (rising MA below price and Awesome positive).
• Bull scenario 2 (bounce): Buy on a failed break below $2,477, targeting $2,500 and then $2,547.
• Bear setups:
  • Short on a confirmed break below $2,477, targeting $2,466 (price below MA and Awesome negative).
  • Short on rejection at $2,500 if an upside breakout fails, targeting $2,477 and then $2,466.

Both the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator are used solely as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone entry signals — trades should be executed only after price has confirmed the specified levels.

Let's start with Germany. The September ZEW Economic Expectations Index was released — it is a survey of financial analysts on how they expect the German economy to perform over the next six months. The indicator barely changed, rising by just 0.5 points to 34.7, while the assessment of the current situation increased much more significantly, by 14 points to -47.1. Institute President Achim Wambach attributes the resilience of expectations to fiscal stimulus and export momentum, but warns that risks remain significant due to high energy prices, the war in Iran, and the threat of hybrid attacks. Interestingly, the picture varied considerably across sectors: insurers and banks, which benefit from high interest rates, are performing noticeably better, while the automotive and steel industries remain deeply negative. Across the euro area as a whole, expectations, by contrast, fell by almost 6 points, although the assessment of the current situation also improved.

This creates an interesting divergence: Germany is holding up more firmly, while the euro area as a whole is more concerned, and this appears to be a logical consequence of the ECB's restrictive policy. On September 10, the ECB raised its rate for the second time since the start of the war in Iran, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. For the euro, the signal is mixed: on the one hand, the economy is clearly adapting to higher interest rates better than feared; on the other hand, the decline in euro-area expectations suggests that the market is pricing in the risk of slower growth ahead. This means that support from monetary policy is not as unconditional as it may appear immediately after the rate hike decision.

The pound came under pressure this morning due to UK labor-market data. The number of unemployment benefit claims rose sharply by 27,800 in August, reversing the 11,800 decline recorded a month earlier. This indicator is considered an early signal of weakening employment because an increase in benefit claims usually occurs before conditions deteriorate across the labor market as a whole. However, the decline in the pair was limited by the fact that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%, although the market had expected an increase. Unemployment is a much more reliable indicator than volatile weekly claims, and in my view, its stability prevented GBP/USD from falling more sharply. As a result, the pound's reaction was mixed, and I would not rule out the possibility that the pair may recover part of its morning decline over the next few hours if no new negative budget-related news emerges.

In the second half of the day, attention will shift to ADP employment data and the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index. The market expects a significant deterioration in the latter, to 14.1 points from 20.6 a month earlier. If the figure comes in above expectations, the dollar will have an additional reason to strengthen ahead of the Fed meeting itself: strong employment and manufacturing data would only provide further arguments in favor of a more restrictive policy. For the euro and the pound, such a scenario would mean continued pressure from both directions. For EUR/USD, strong ADP data could outweigh the effect of today's ZEW report and restore a downward bias, while GBP/USD, already weakened by budget-related concerns, would have little support in the absence of strong domestic signals. I believe the reaction of both pairs to the US data will be fairly synchronized — the overall dollar environment currently outweighs the local factors affecting each currency individually.

Momentum

For the euro, the key level on the upside is 1.1544, and a break above it could take the pair to 1.1563 and then 1.1579. However, such a move would require a significant catalyst, while today's data are more likely to weigh on the single currency, so I consider this a secondary scenario. A downside break of 1.1525 looks much more actionable, opening the way toward 1.1507 and 1.1486. In my view, the combination of today's news, from the divergence in ZEW data to expectations of a strong ADP report, points toward these levels.

For the pound, the upside level is 1.3502, above which the pair could reach 1.3531 and 1.3565. However, without unexpected support from domestic data, the pound simply lacks a catalyst for further growth. A downside break of 1.3464 looks much more realistic, with targets at 1.3435 and 1.3401, especially since this morning's sharp increase in benefit claims has already indicated the direction in which the market is leaning.

Mean Reversion

For the euro, I am watching 1.1555 on the upside. The logic is as follows: the pair attempts to move above this level, but there are not enough buyers to sustain the move, and the price then returns below the level, creating a sell signal. This scenario looks quite reasonable today because the overall background is already weighing on the euro, meaning that any attempt at an upward move may remain merely a technical rebound. The downside level is 1.1527, where the approach is reversed — I would look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful attempt to push the market below this boundary. However, buying against the prevailing market sentiment is always riskier than selling in the direction of the trend, so it is reasonable to keep the target for such a rebound modest, within 15–20 points, rather than expecting a reversal of the entire market picture.

For the pound, the upper boundary is 1.3490. The same approach applies here: if the pair moves above the level and quickly loses momentum, a return below the level provides a basis for a sell trade. Given the pound's weakness following today's labor-market data, this outcome appears likely. The lower level of 1.3459 suggests buying on a rebound after a false break below the level, but this area should be approached with caution. The current background for the pound is so unfavorable that even a successful technical rebound could be very short-lived before the pair turns lower again.

The market situation has nevertheless changed to "bearish." The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the bears have now taken control of the initiative. I am not sure that they will be able to launch a full-scale advance, as the FOMC monetary policy tightening scheduled for Wednesday is already being priced in by the market. What will happen after Wednesday?

Reports released in the UK this morning could generally have supported the bulls if traders were currently seeing anything other than a Fed rate hike. Contrary to pessimistic forecasts, the unemployment rate remained at 4.9%, while average earnings came in at 3.9%, as expected. The only negative report was the one on unemployment benefit claims, which showed an increase of almost 28,000, while traders had expected an increase of no more than 8,500. However, the unemployment rate is probably more important than the number of unemployed people. Unfortunately, the market remains focused on the upcoming Bank of England and Fed meetings, with the Bank of England ranked first only because of alphabetical order. I see no market interest in the outcome of the British regulator's meeting. However, I believe that the relentless dollar buying may stop on Wednesday evening, especially if Kevin Warsh does not indicate an intention to continue tightening policy through the end of 2026.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the US dollar and declined to the support level of 1.3467–1.3482. Consolidation below the 1.3467–1.3482 level would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. A rebound from the 1.3467–1.3482 level would allow for some growth toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3538. A "bullish" divergence is developing on the CCI indicator, increasing the likelihood of a rebound.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,866, while the number of Short positions decreased by 2,605. The current gap between the numbers of Long and Short positions is effectively 74,000 versus 132,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still retain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but this is now changing because the news background has shifted.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near future everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the US failed without really getting started. There is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's position on monetary policy remains contradictory.

News Calendar for the US and UK:

• UK – Unemployment rate (06:00 UTC).
• UK – Change in average hourly earnings (06:00 UTC).
• UK – Change in the number of unemployed people (06:00 UTC).
• US – Weekly change in ADP employment (12:15 UTC).

On September 15, the economic calendar contains four entries, three of which have already been released. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment for the rest of the day may be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Sell trades were possible after a rebound from 1.3526 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3454. The first target was reached. The trades can be kept open with the second target. Buy trades are possible after a rebound from the 1.3447–1.3454 level, with targets at 1.3526 and 1.3556.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3557 to 1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed to "bearish." The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Geopolitical conditions remain consistently negative and have every chance of worsening in the near future. The market expects the FOMC to tighten monetary policy. These two factors have brought bearish traders back to the market.

There was no significant news background on Monday, but bearish traders continued to sell in anticipation of an FOMC interest-rate hike on Wednesday evening. The US dollar has continued to rise for several days despite the contradictory and lackluster US inflation report released last Friday. Traders are currently almost 100% certain that the Fed will tighten monetary policy on Wednesday evening, so the current rise in the dollar can only be attributed to this expectation. However, I would like to warn traders that after the policy tightening is announced, the market may begin taking profits on long dollar positions. This could become a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." In my view, the dollar cannot rise first on expectations of a rate hike and then rise further after the rate hike itself. Therefore, if the Fed raises the rate by 0.25%, this could cause the dollar to decline. If the rate remains unchanged, this could trigger a collapse in the US currency.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1649, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and declined to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1526. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some growth toward 1.1649. Consolidation below 1.1526 would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the next retracement level of 23.6% at 1.1449. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 4,968 Long positions and opened 12,723 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared because of the war in Iran, while over the last twenty-four weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid market hopes for an end to the conflict. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 241,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is narrowing.

Overall, over the long term, large market players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war repeatedly appears to end and then starts again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the fate of the dollar on its own.

News Calendar for the US and European Union:

• European Union – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• US – Weekly change in ADP employment (12:15 UTC).

On September 15, the economic calendar contains three entries, none of which are of any interest. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be weak or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Buying the pair is possible today if there is a rebound from 1.1519 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1564. Sell trades were possible after consolidation below 1.1621 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1551. The target was reached. New sell trades are possible after a close below 1.1564, with targets at 1.1519 and 1.1473. These trades can be kept open.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849 to 1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.

Yesterday, a bipartisan coalition of 18 state attorneys general and the District of Columbia, led by New York Attorney General Letitia James, sent a letter to the Senate Banking Committee urging changes to the bill before it moves forward. Notably, the coalition includes Republicans such as Chris Kobach of Kansas and Andy Wilson of Ohio, a rare example of cross party state officials uniting over the risks of federal preemption.

The prosecutors' objection focuses on one phrase in the bill's text — the definition of a "qualified transaction." In the coalition's view this wording would allow the Securities and Exchange Commission to override states' registration requirements for crypto transactions, effectively stripping state regulators of their enforcement tools. The attorneys general note that, since 2017, states have secured some 330 enforcement actions related to crypto fraud, and that Americans lost $11.4 billion to crypto scams in 2025, according to the FBI — a 22% increase year-on-year. Those figures are the cornerstone of their argument: state authority would be curtailed at a time when crypto fraud is rising, not falling.

A key nuance often missed in headlines is that today's vote is procedural — a cloture vote to end debate — not final passage. Cloture requires 60 votes and only determines whether the Senate will proceed to consideration of the bill. Even if cloture succeeds, the chamber will have only eight working days in September before the midterms to move the bill to a final vote. CLARITY passed the House in July last year and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May. Its central aim — to allocate jurisdiction between the SEC and the CFTC across categories of digital assets — has been a long-standing industry priority in exchange for federal uniformity.

That is where the conflict of interest lies. The industry benefits from a single federal framework that replaces a patchwork of state rules, while states would lose part of an enforcement apparatus they have spent years building.

It is worth noting that, on the eve of the attorneys general's letter, President Trump agreed to accept much of a bipartisan ethics package from Senators Tom Tillis and Ruben Gallego that tightens conflicts-of-interest rules regarding crypto. A revised text, published Sunday evening, gives state attorneys general authority to enforce those ethics limits and sue exchanges that allow trading in assets banned by law. That concession was meant to reduce opposition, but the 18 attorneys general say it does not resolve the central problem of federal preemption of state registration authority.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls the bill "necessary" for US leadership in the global technology race and links it to the GENIUS Act on stablecoins. Meanwhile some banks have criticized revised stablecoin yield provisions, arguing they remain insufficiently workable. The political tug-of-war therefore spans both policy and industry constituencies.

My view is that even if the authors secure cloture today, the dispute over federal primacy versus state authority will not disappear; it will continue to shape debate as the bill moves along the process. For markets, that means opening debate will not end regulatory uncertainty but will move it to the next stage, where stakes for institutional players and exchanges operating across multiple states will rise.

A technical picture for Bitcoin suggests that buyers are targeting a return to $77,900, which opens a direct path to $79,400 and then to $81,600; a break above that level would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside expect buyers at $76,700. A move below that area could quickly drag BTC toward $75,300. A farther downside target is $72,800.

A technical picture for Ethereum involves a clear hold above $2,551 opens a direct path to $2,625. The farther target is the high near $2,684; a break above that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside expect buyers at $2,475; a drop below that area could push ETH toward $2,415. The farthest downside target is $2,367.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Market pressure intensified on the oil shock: Brent added 1.4% to $107.10/bbl amid supply-risk concerns in the Middle East and the continued shutdown of a Saudi pipeline after recent attacks. Rising energy prices, together with the sell-off in Treasuries, also dragged down bond markets across the Asia-Pacific region. Expensive oil benefits exporters and Iran — which sees rising prices as a partial offset to Western sanctions — while consumers and central banks in developed economies are hurt, because energy again becomes a source of inflationary pressure. Gold stayed just below $4,300/oz after falling more than 1% the previous day to a five-week low. The mechanism is straightforward: higher oil lifts inflation expectations, which strengthens bets on Fed tightening, and higher yields make non-yielding gold less attractive.

It's clear that the stakes have risen for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. At the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, his remarks lowered the bar for rate hikes and the FOMC's decisions to incoming data. So, skipping a rate hike on Wednesday would risk institutional credibility and could push long-end yields even higher. An expanding fiscal deficit, record supply of government debt, and heavy financing needs for AI investments are forcing investors to demand a bigger term premium on long bonds.

Higher bond yields are beginning to compete with stocks for investor capital, calling into question the rally that had been supported by robust AI earnings and economic resilience. Psychologically, the 5% threshold matters — at this yield level, stock markets are likely to face trouble. If yields rise further, investors will start rotating into bonds, which could trigger a sharp correction in US stocks.

In my view, the combination of expensive oil, the still-offline Saudi pipeline and hot inflation leaves the Fed little room to pause on Wednesday. That implies further dollar and short-rate strength, while gold and long bonds will likely remain under pressure at least until the meeting's outcome. If the 10-year yield tests 5.25–5.5%, the selloff could spread to the AI sector, where debate over development pace has already become an additional risk factor.

Technical note on the S&P 500: today's primary task for buyers is to reclaim immediate resistance at 7,607. Doing so would signal upside and open the way to 7,633. Equally important is holding control above 7,656 to strengthen the bulls' case. On the downside, buyers must defend the 7,574 area; a break there would quickly drive the index back to 7,563 and open the path to 7,546.

P/E dynamics and interest rate expectations

Nervousness was amplified by Anthropic's call to slow AI development. Investors did not wait to see whether industry leaders would follow. Chipmakers and data-center operators were hit, while cybersecurity firms and software developers — whose business models AI could theoretically disrupt — rose. The biggest tech giants reacted mutely: Amazon fell less than 1%, Microsoft was essentially flat, and Alphabet even gained, suggesting the market does not yet view an AI slowdown as a universal threat.

At the same time, Wall Street's top strategists aren't rushing to abandon bullish positions. Stocks usually suffer when the Fed begins to hike, but Goldman Sachs still expects the bull market to continue. CME futures imply more than three hikes this cycle, yet corporate earnings and balance sheets remain robust. Bloomberg's analysis shows that, of 12 bear markets since 1945, only a full tightening cycle that precipitates a recession truly breaks an uptrend — a one-off hike rarely does. Morgan Stanley allows for a roughly 10% S&P 500 correction only in the event of a stronger inflation shock, while JPMorgan points out that the dominant current risk factor is oil.

S&P 500 forecasts

Year-end targets are more dispersed than ever. BofA holds one of the most bearish Wall Street targets at 7,400 — nearly 3% below current levels — while Tallbacken raised its target to 8,500, citing exceptional profit growth and beating even prior record forecasts.

Besides, we should not downplay the season factor. In the 40 years before midterm elections, the S&P 500 has on average fallen 2.4% from early July through the month before the vote. Yet once results become clear, tension typically eases and stocks tend to recover in the final four weeks before election day.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows a cluster of mixed bars with price gaps, signaling rising uncertainty and justifying placing pending orders. Consider selling from 7,580 and buying from 7,675.

The expectation that expensive energy will seep into core inflation pushed the Fed toward its first rate hike in three years, and traders are already pricing in nearly a 90 percent probability of such a move this week. A rate hike benefits the dollar, which strengthens as yields rise, and hurts gold, whose demand falls when money is costly. The market has mostly priced in the hike risk, but if it is realized, gold will face additional pressure, whereas keeping rates unchanged — whether the Fed sounds hawkish or dovish — would lower real yields and revive concerns about policy credibility and currency debasement, which would favor gold.

Since early August, when gold bounced off a low near $4,000 per ounce, the metal has mostly traded around $4,400 as the market repeatedly revised Fed-policy expectations. That is why the current decline looks more like a correction within an uptrend than a trend break, especially since many investors still view gold as a traditional defensive asset. Even if rates are raised, gold should retain support in the medium term.

In my view, the key fork for gold on Wednesday is not the decision itself but the Fed's tone: the market has almost fully priced in a hike, so the metal will react not to the fact of a rate increase but to how hawkish or dovish the statement sounds about the path ahead. If the tone is at least moderately dovish, the gold sell-off could quickly reverse back toward $4,400, whereas a clearly hawkish stance risks pushing the metal to new local lows below $4,200.

As for the current technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,304. That would allow a target of $4,372, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farthest target is the $4,424 area. In the event of a drop, bears will try to seize control of $4,249. If they succeed, a range breakout will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and send gold toward the $4,186 low, with a prospect of extending to $4,124.

Tomorrow, September 16, the market will have reason for a much more long-term reaction than the usual ETF-flow updates. The House Financial Services Committee will vote on H.R. 8957, the "American Reserve Modernization Act" of 2026, which would for the first time convert a strategic Bitcoin reserve from a presidential executive order into a binding federal statute. That is a crucial difference: an executive order signed in March last year can be rescinded by the next president with a stroke of a pen, whereas a law requires a full legislative process to repeal.

A key provision of the bill is a minimum 20-year holding period for Bitcoin in the reserve with no right to sell, swap, or auction the holdings, with a single exception for paying down federal debt. That clause turns the reserve from a flexibly managed instrument into an effectively frozen asset over a very long horizon — beneficial for long-term holders and institutions aligned with the "digital gold" thesis, but it removes flexibility from the Treasury in the event of sudden market moves. The bill also mandates that all government-seized Bitcoin be directed into the reserve rather than sold at auction, changing current practice.

The U.S. Treasury would also be required to build the reserve's infrastructure within 180 days of the law taking effect and begin publishing quarterly reserve attestations via independent auditors. A separate article tasks authorities with exploring budget-neutral methods to add to the reserve — i.e., without new taxes, borrowing, or expanding the deficit — which contrasts with proposals to fund purchases by selling part of gold reserves or revaluing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.

Recall that Republican Nick Begich and Democrat Jared Golden introduced the bill, and its 23 co-sponsors include members of both parties, which reduces the risk of purely partisan blockage at later stages. Nevertheless, committee passage guarantees nothing beyond the right to be considered on the House floor: the bill would still face a Senate vote with a 60-vote threshold, where the fate of the CLARITY Act showed how difficult it can be to secure such a supermajority even on broadly industry-supported measures.

I do not rule out a muted market reaction to the committee vote itself, since at least two significant hurdles remain before the bill becomes law. But the psychological effect of the reserve concept first advancing through a binding legislative procedure will be gradually priced in as the measure approaches a Senate vote.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

For Bitcoin, the first buy scenario is built around an entry point near $77,600. It is reasonable to open a long position at that level today, targeting a move to $78,500. Once the price reaches that mark, it makes sense to close the long and immediately flip into a short, playing the likely bounce down after the level performs as resistance. Before entering this breakout scenario, be sure to check two indicators: the 50-day moving average must be below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator must be trading in positive territory, above zero. Without meeting both conditions, the buy signal is not confirmed.

The second buy scenario for Bitcoin is structured differently — from the lower boundary of the range at $76,700. The logic here is to wait for an attempt to break this boundary to the downside and confirm the market did not support that attempt—i.e., no continuation of the decline followed. In that case, open a buy position off the rejection, with the familiar targets $77,600 and $78,600 as potential upside references once the failed breakout reverses.

On the sell side, the first scenario is also tied to the $76,700 level, but as an entry point for a short position on a confirmed break below this boundary. The target in this scenario is effectively the same $76,700, which means trading off the breakout and subsequent consolidation below it; after that, one should lock in profits on the short and immediately reverse into a buy to catch the technical bounce. Entry conditions are the mirror of the first buy scenario: the 50-day moving average should be above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator must be in negative territory, below zero.

The second sell scenario is linked to the upper boundary at $77,600. Here, wait for an attempted upside breakout and confirm the absence of market follow-through—the price should not consolidate above it. In that case, open a sell position on the rejection, with targets at $76,700 and further down at $75,800.

For Ether, the first buy scenario begins at an entry point around $2,500, from which a move to the $2,547 target is expected. Once that level is reached, the long position is closed and replaced with a short to play the downside rejection from resistance. Entry conditions are standard for breakout longs: the 50-day moving average must be below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator above zero.

The second buy scenario for Ether is formed from the lower boundary at $2,477. Here too, you need a failed downside breakout, after which price returns into the range; recovery targets are $2,500 and $2,547.

The first sell scenario for Ether opens from $2,477 on a confirmed break below that level, targeting $2,446. After the target is reached, close the short, and open a buy to catch the rebound. Conditions are mirrored: the 50-day moving average should be above price, and the Awesome Oscillator should be below zero.

The second sell scenario for Ether is tied to the upper boundary at $2,500, where — if an upside breakout fails and there is no follow-through — a sell is opened off the rejection, with downside targets at $2,477 and $2,446.

The price test at 154.660 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward 155.02.

Today's data showed Japan's services-sector activity index rose 0.4% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) to 107.1 points, and the raw year-on-year index increased by 2.3%. The largest contributions to the rise came from leisure and entertainment services (+3.4%), retail trade (+2.1%) and transport and postal services (+1.8%).

Far more important for the yen is another story: currency interventions appear to have stopped, and the dollar has returned to rising against the yen for the first time in weeks. The joint US–Japan intervention that previously pushed the pair down from levels above 160 to around 153.40 no longer supports the currency, and without that backstop, USD/JPY again has room to move higher. In my view, the absence of fresh signals that authorities are ready to intervene frees dollar buyers, especially given that Japanese 10-year yields — though they did reach 3% for the first time in 30 years — have not yet been met with sufficiently forceful rhetoric from the Bank of Japan.

The USD/JPY advance unfolds just ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, and I expect the US central bank's decision to be the key catalyst for the pair in the coming days. If the Fed confirms a tightening bias, the yield gap between the dollar and the yen will widen further, reviving carry-trade interest and giving the dollar an additional boost. The Bank of Japan meets on September 18, and until then I believe initiative will remain with USD buyers, since without renewed interventions and with Tokyo remaining cautious, the yen has little to hold on to.

For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry area around 154.94 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.37 (the thicker green line). Around 155.37, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip reversal from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant USD/JPY pullbacks. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.68 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect moves to the opposite levels 154.94 and 155.37.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a break below 154.68 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. Sellers' key target is 154.29, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Sellers can return at any moment; it only takes a hint from the central banks. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.94 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.68 and 154.29.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3492 occurred when the MACD indicator moved far above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. The second test of 1.3492 triggered my Scenario No. 2 for selling the pound, producing a decline of more than 30 pips.

Without significant UK and US macro releases, the pound continued to lose ground against the dollar, updating a monthly low. GBP/USD today offers a real chance to reverse this dynamic because labor-market data are in the spotlight: changes in jobless claims, the unemployment rate, and average-earnings dynamics.

Economists forecast unemployment to remain at 5.2%. If the figure prints higher than expected, that would be an unequivocally negative signal for the pound: rising unemployment typically indicates cooling activity and reduces the likelihood of further Bank of England tightening. Without the prospect of a rate rise, the pair loses one of the few arguments for a recovery. Jobless-claims figures will complement the picture by showing whether applications continue to rise and will confirm or refute the headline unemployment signal.

Average-earnings dynamics are also important today and are forecast to slow. For the BoE, this indicator remains a key input when assessing inflationary risks from the labor market, since faster wage growth traditionally feeds services inflation. Slowing wages weaken the case for a tougher stance and could exert additional pressure on the pair. Given that the pound already trades under the weight of budget concerns and broad dollar strength, weaker wages combined with an unemployment rate above 5.2% risks sending GBP/USD to new lows, while unexpectedly strong prints on both measures could give the pair grounds for a short corrective rally.

For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if price reaches the entry area around 1.3482 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3515 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3515, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move from that level). Expect pound strength only as part of a correction. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3466 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect moves to the opposite levels 1.3482 and 1.3515.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3466 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3436, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Bad news will restore pressure on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3482 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3466 and 1.3436.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1535 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the euro. However, the pair did not follow through into a new major decline.

Without significant macro releases, traders in EUR/USD focused on two factors: rising Federal Reserve-hike expectations and Christine Lagarde's speech, which unexpectedly compared the current AI boom to the crash of 1873. The European Central Bank chief reminded markets that euro-area households now hold roughly €400 billion in US tech stocks and warned of a growing gap with the US in computing capacity for AI. Lagarde also warned that Europe will pay for others' tech booms through higher yields regardless of whether it captures any of that growth.

The pair did not react to the speech, but by the end of the day the euro recovered a bit after the earlier large sell-off versus the dollar. In my view, the Fed-rate backdrop remains a more important driver for EUR/USD than one-off ECB remarks, and the evening recovery should be seen more as a technical correction than a shift in sentiment.

Today's busy macro calendar in the morning gives the euro a real chance to continue the correction. Publication of consumer-price indices for France and Spain will set an early tone for euro-area inflation ahead of more significant pan-European data, and any deviation from forecasts could adjust market expectations for the ECB's future rate path. Given that the central bank already raised rates last week and flagged itself as the most hawkish G7 central bank, surprises in either direction from these two countries risk moving the pair sharply.

Also important are ZEW indices for Germany and the euro area: the expectations gauge reflects investors' sentiment for the coming months, while the current-conditions reading shows how the German economy is coping today. Given the recent notable improvement in the Ifo survey, I expect ZEW to confirm a gradual business-climate recovery in the euro area's largest economy, and any improvement there traditionally supports the single currency. The euro-area external-trade balance will complement the picture by showing how robust export contributions are amid ongoing geopolitical pressure on energy markets.

In my view, with generally neutral or slightly stronger readings, EUR/USD has room to retrace recent losses, while weak ZEW prints or an inflation spike in Spain or France could restore downward momentum before midday.

For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.1541 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1568. At 1.1568, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry. Expect euro gains only as part of a correction. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1526 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect moves to the opposite levels 1.1541 and 1.1568.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1526 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1496, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if data are weak. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if it tests 1.1541 twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal down. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1526 and 1.1496.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

I'll single out Christine Lagarde's speech, which unexpectedly focused not on monetary policy but on the artificial-intelligence boom. The European Central Bank president reminded listeners that euro-area households already hold roughly €440 billion in US tech stocks and warned that Europe lags in its own computing capacity. To my mind, this is background rather than a direct driver for the euro, but it is telling: while Europe debates how to catch up on AI infrastructure, the dollar continues to be supported by rate expectations.

Today the focus is on UK unemployment for July, forecast at 4.9% — unchanged for the fourth month running — and on average-earnings growth, which may slow to 3.9%. If the figures come in line with expectations, that will not trigger a reversal for sterling but will likely confirm its current weakness amid broad dollar dominance. Germany and the euro area will publish business-climate indices, and the US will release ADP and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's manufacturing index, but I don't expect any of these releases to outweigh expectations for tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision. I do not expect any meaningful dollar correction before the Fed announces its outcome.

Trading strategies:

Momentum

For the euro, a breakout above 1.1544 opens the way to 1.1563 and then 1.1579. That scenario is possible if today's business-climate data from Germany and the euro area markedly beat expectations and at least temporarily dampen the selling mood. More likely, in my view, is a break of 1.1525 to the downside, with targets at 1.1507 and 1.1486, since ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision the dollar is unlikely to cede initiative.

For the pound, a breakout above 1.3502 targets 1.3531 and 1.3565, but without surprises in labor-market data you should not count on such a move. A break below 1.3464, with targets of 1.3435 and 1.3401, looks more logical, especially if unemployment and wage data print in line with or weaker than forecasts.

Mean Reversion

For the euro, I'm watching 1.1548 on the top and 1.1520 on the bottom. The range is narrow, which is natural ahead of the Fed meeting — market participants are unlikely to take large positions against the dollar a day before the decision. A false move above 1.1548, followed by a quick return inside, would fit the overall wait-and-see picture; in that case, it makes sense to place the stop just above the level.

For the pound, I'm focusing on 1.3495 above and 1.3465 below. Expectations for UK labor-market data also compress this range: if the figures print neutral, a false breach of the borders with a return rather than a sustained breakout is likely. To test the lower boundary at 1.3465, unemployment or wage data would need to disappoint noticeably versus forecasts; in that case, it makes sense to place the stop just below the level.

This week may prove decisive for Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve could raise its policy rate for the first time in three years, and if it does, there is little doubt — Bitcoin would head lower. At the same time, experts at quantum company IonQ warned that by 2028, a supercomputer could appear capable of breaking the Bitcoin network. According to the firm's analysts, cracking Bitcoin would require a fault-tolerant quantum computer with 20,000 physical qubits and about 1,500 logical qubits. Such a machine, they estimate, could break Bitcoin in roughly 25 days.

This is far from the first warning about an existential threat to digital assets posed by quantum computing. Warnings about quantum risks to cryptocurrencies — after all, software code can be hacked — have appeared repeatedly. No unbreakable code has yet been invented; the question is one of time and technology.

If the development of quantum supercomputers continues at the present pace, it is a strongly negative factor for Bitcoin. The mere prospect of a machine capable of cracking the network could spook investors and prompt them to abandon already-risky crypto holdings. Many Bitcoin proponents and industry experts argue the threat is not immediate: they point out that the Bitcoin protocol's security is world-class and that developers continuously improve protections. Still, it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility outright given the rapid progress in AI and quantum technologies.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin is still forming a downtrend despite the August rally. We still expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), although that level has effectively already been tested. We do not believe the downtrend has ended. The recent rise in the leading cryptocurrency looks fragile as a corrective move and is not a convincing reason to open long positions. Liquidity could be swept from the $82,850 high, potentially triggering a new leg down. On the 4-hour chart, long positions may become relevant in the near term if the price forms a deviation near the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum's technical picture changed dramatically in just a few days. Ether may now be able to start a new uptrend. However, traders should focus on the weekly chart, where ETH could target $4,800 — the upper band of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the nearest bearish FVG has been filled, but that gap belongs to the previous trend; if it triggers a market reaction, it will most likely be corrective. Also note the liquidity sweep of the April 17 highs and liquidity removal on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin has likewise swept liquidity on the 4-hour and remains within a wide daily-timeframe sideways channel. Thus, Bitcoin is currently biased lower on both timeframes, and Ethereum looks similarly tilted to the downside.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop-Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

Good relations?

Donald Trump said he would allow Chinese automakers to build factories on US soil — provided they use only American labor — but he categorically ruled out direct imports of finished cars. The president emphasized that Washington will not tolerate schemes to manufacture cheap Chinese EVs in Mexico for subsequent cross-border shipments. His comments came ahead of the planned state visit to the White House by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of September.

Trump insisted he is not worried about a possible cancellation of the meeting, calling his relationship with the Chinese leader "excellent." At the same time, Kyodo reports that Beijing has warned it may call off Xi's visit if the US approves a new roughly $14 billion arms package for Taiwan. Beyond Taiwan and the future trade truce — set to expire on November 10 — the leaders plan to discuss global trade, AI development and the Middle East conflict.

Trump also told reporters in Ireland that the United States maintains technological leadership over China in artificial intelligence and must preserve that edge. "Whoever wins the AI race will win everything else," he said. Responding to multiple senior tech executives on Wall Street warning of potential AI risks, the president said he is broadly not opposed to basic protective measures.

He added, however, that many of the alarmist warnings could be overblown and driven by pessimistic interests sounding the alarm over hypothetical problems. That White House skepticism contrasts with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's stance, who has urged independent auditors to verify safety standards and called for international cooperation to establish common AI rules.

On the prospect of the Xi meeting being canceled, Trump remained unconcerned — he insists relations with the Chinese leader are excellent. Again, Kyodo says Beijing warned it could cancel the visit if Washington approves a roughly $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. In addition to the Taiwan issue and the trade truce expiring November 10, the agenda between the leaders will include global trade, AI and the Middle East conflict.

AI panic on Wall Street

Amid mounting disputes, the industry's key players (Anthropic, OpenAI and Google) have already held closed-door talks aimed at creating a common AI safety body. Anthropic and OpenAI have publicly called for more restrained release schedules, citing rising systemic risks to society, but their initiative faces strong pushback from investors and officials.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei insists on full government oversight for the most advanced systems and on mechanisms for independent verification. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has voiced support for a "careful pace," clarifying that the call is not to stop progress but to manage risks consciously. The leaders of major AI labs risk clashing directly with Wall Street and the Trump administration if they press to slow the pace of development of the most powerful models.

Amodei's plea for a pause in advanced AI development for safety reasons provoked an unexpectedly fierce investor reaction. The market took the comments as a signal of imminent capex cuts in the tech sector, triggering chaotic sell-offs on Monday:

• South Korea's Kospi fell 3.3%
• The Stoxx Europe 600 technology index dropped 2.5%
• Shares of ASML plunged 6.2%
• SoftBank (which owns roughly 13% of OpenAI) plunged 10.7%

It remains unclear whether the cautionary rhetoric — intensified by the departure of a leading Anthropic researcher — will translate into real cuts to infrastructure budgets. President Trump has already said the United States must preserve its lead over China in AI, making a scenario of sustained slowdown by American developers unlikely amid fierce technological rivalry with Beijing.

Oil and diplomacy

The president also sought to calm commodity markets amid fears of shrinking oil supplies. Trump said Iranian authorities are actively trying to engage in dialogue with the United States and hope to reach agreements on contentious points. According to the president, Tehran frequently reaches out, but Washington will only accept a deal it considers appropriate. Earlier, Trump suggested the Iran conflict could end after the US midterms in early November.

Will oil set new records? The commodity picture has grown markedly more acute: Saudi Arabia has fully shut the East-West pipeline — a route capable of handling up to 7 million barrels per day — after drone attacks on facilities near Riyadh and Medina. Closing this artery, which served as a key alternative to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, dramatically raises supply risks amid ongoing Houthi attacks and shipping constraints.

A proposed Iran–Oman temporary shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz also raises questions, particularly among Gulf states. The matter surfaced in public talks during the BRICS summit in India between Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed the deal does not imply full reopening and that Tehran will retain the right to selectively admit vessels.

A planned regional meeting of GCC foreign ministers in Oman to formalize an Oman–Iran temporary shipping arrangement was officially postponed. Regional consensus remains in doubt:

• Bahrain formally refused to attend following recent attacks linked to Iran.
• Renewed clashes between pro-Saudi forces and Houthi rebels in Yemen complicate efforts to normalize Red Sea shipping.
• Media report that Riyadh made major amendments to the draft agreement with Tehran and Muscat, fearing the original wording would effectively legitimize an unacceptable new status quo in the strait for Arab monarchies.

Oman's foreign minister Badr al-Busaidi said talks in Salalah were postponed to achieve regional consensus. Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi reiterated that the proposed route is not an open corridor; a full unblocking will come only after a final settlement with Washington.

Meanwhile, the oil price surge and higher US pump prices are creating serious political pressure on the Republican Party just over 50 days before the midterms. Aiming to calm markets and voters, Trump promised the Middle East conflict would end immediately after the elections — or even before — after which fuel prices would "drop like a stone." Tension in commodity markets is amplified by historically low US strategic reserves and China's urgent need to ramp up imports in August after depleting domestic stocks.

September 15

September 15, 04:30 / China / New-home prices for August / prev.: -3.3% / actual: -3.2% / forecast: -3.1% / USD/CNY — down

New-home prices in China eased their decline in July, recording the slowest rate of contraction so far this year. Housing market dynamics were shaped by:

• moderated price falls in Guangzhou (-2.2%), Shenzhen (-2.9%) and Tianjin (-4.4%);
• continued price gains in Shanghai (+3.0%);
• a monthly price dip holding at 0.1%.

Markets expect the housing-sector slowdown to continue easing in August. If realized, that would support the yuan and push USD/CNY lower.

September 15, 05:00 / China / Industrial production for August / prev.: 5.3% / actual: 4.5% / forecast: 4.8% / USD/CNY — down

China's industrial output growth slowed in July, missing expectations due to weak domestic demand and weather effects. The readings were affected by:

• strong gains in electronics (+19.1%), shipbuilding (+13.6%) and automotive production (+8.7%);
• contractions in mining (-4.2%) and coal (-10.8%);
• moderate expansion in utilities and energy (+5.0%).

Markets expect industrial growth to recover in August. Improved factory activity would bolster the yuan and push USD/CNY down.

September 15, 05:00 / China / Retail sales for August / prev.: 1.0% / actual: 0.6% / forecast: 0.8% / USD/CNY — down

Retail sales growth in China slowed sharply in July, below consensus. Consumer demand was influenced by:

• a steep 17.0% drop in auto sales and an 8.8% fall in furniture spending;
• a strong surge in electronics and communications spending (+20.4%);
• solid growth in food (+5.3%) and cosmetics (+6.8%).

Markets expect retail activity to pick up in August. If confirmed, stronger consumer demand would support the yuan and weigh on USD/CNY.

September 15, 09:00 / Germany / Producer Price Index (PPI) for August / prev.: 4.9% / actual: 5.3% / forecast: 6.2% / EUR/USD — up

Germany's PPI accelerated in July, marking the twentieth consecutive month of positive growth. Inflation-of-costs was driven by:

• sharp rises in non-ferrous ores and metals (+27.8%) and petroleum products (+24.1%) amid Middle East developments;
• higher chemical (+13.1%) and ICT-equipment prices (+9.0%);
• notable price declines for live cattle (-18.5%), dairy (-9.4%) and meat products (-6.1%);
• a 0.2% monthly rebound in wholesale prices after June's dip.

Markets expect further PPI gains in August. Persistently high input-cost inflation would raise the odds that the ECB keeps policy tight, supporting the euro.

September 15, 09:00 / UK / Change in employment for July / prev.: 147k / actual: 83k / forecast: 70k / GBP/USD — down

Three-month employment growth in the UK slowed, hitting the weakest pace so far this year. Labor market developments included:

• a drop in part-time employment while full-time employment held steady;
• overall employment remaining at 75.1%;
• an increase in people with second jobs to 1.293 million.

Analysts expect further softening in job creation in July. A cooling labor market could weigh on the pound.

September 15, 12:00 / Eurozone / Goods trade balance for July / prev.: -€9.0bn / actual: €8.6bn / forecast: €3.7bn / EUR/USD — down

The eurozone posted a €8.6bn trade surplus in June, far above expectations. The improvement was supported by:

• a 14.4% surge in exports, driven by shipments to China (+14.4%) and the US (+10.3%);
• a 13.1% rise in imports, including more goods from the UK and China;
• wider surpluses in chemicals and food that offset the energy deficit.

Analysts expect a moderate narrowing of the surplus in July. A shrinking trade surplus could weigh on the euro.

September 15, 12:00 / Eurozone / ZEW economic sentiment index for September (leading) / prev.: 23.4 pts / actual: 31.4 pts / forecast: 39.9 / EUR/USD — up

ZEW sentiment in the eurozone rose in August to a six-month high, marking three months of improvement. The rebound reflected:

• a 16.2-point rise in the current-situation assessment;
• a decline in experts' inflation expectations to 2.4%;
• a predominance of optimistic growth assessments among analysts.

Further improvement in sentiment in September would support the euro.

September 15, 12:00 / Germany / ZEW economic sentiment index for September (leading) / prev.: 26.3 pts / actual: 34.2 pts / forecast: 37.0 pts / EUR/USD — up

Germany's ZEW sentiment climbed sharply in August to its highest level since February. The indicator was driven by:

• strong corporate reports, resilient export volumes and infrastructure spending;
• a notable rise in automotive-sector sentiment;
• an improvement in the current conditions assessment to -61.1 points.

Further gains in the index would be positive for the euro.

September 15, 12:00 / Germany / ZEW economic conditions index for September (leading) / prev.: -77.6 pts / actual: -61.1 pts / forecast: -52.2 pts / EUR/USD — up

ZEW's current conditions gauge for Germany improved in August, retreating from July's lows. The reading reflects diminished pessimism among experts about the current business situation. Continued improvement would support the euro.

September 15, 15:15 / US / ADP 4-week average private payroll gains / prev.: 10k / actual: 12k / forecast: — / USDX (6-currency USD index) — up

The four-week average of private sector job gains through August 22 rose to 12.5k, indicating steady hiring by private employers. With no consensus forecast, attention shifts to subsequent releases. Continued strength in hiring would support the US dollar.

September 15, 15:30 / Canada / Wholesale trade volume for July (m/m) / prev.: 0% / actual: 2.8% / forecast: -0.5% / USD/CAD — up

Canadian wholesale trade rose 2.8% in June, one of the strongest readings this year. Preliminary signs for July include:

• a renewed contraction in wholesale turnover for the first time since January;
• weaker agricultural sales;
• lower mineral, ore and precious-metals trade.

Markets expect wholesale volumes to fall in July. Softer trade would weigh on the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD up.

September 15, 23:30 / US / API weekly crude oil inventories / prev.: -2.6 mln bbl / actual: -0.3 mln bbl / forecast: — / Brent — up

US commercial crude stocks fell by 0.3 million barrels for the week to September 4. The report showed:

• a 0.3 million-barrel draw in commercial crude inventories;
• a 1.2 million-barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve;
• a draw at Cushing and lower gasoline stocks;
• US crude production rising to 13.862 mln b/d.

With no consensus forecast, attention shifts to the next releases. Continued inventory draws would support Brent prices.

September 16

September 16, 02:50 / Japan / Trade balance for August / prev.: -409.9bn / actual: -634.5bn / forecast: -1,052.6bn / USD/JPY — up

Japan's trade deficit widened sharply in July, marking the third consecutive month in the red. The external imbalance was driven by:

• record import growth (+27.8%) led by an 87.8% jump in oil purchases;
• a 23.2% rise in exports to a new high, helped by a weaker yen and demand for AI chips;
• import growth outpacing exports amid economic stimulus measures.

Analysts expect the trade deficit to widen further in August. A larger external gap would weigh on the yen and push USD/JPY higher.

September 16, 02:50 / Japan / Machinery orders for July / prev.: -1.9% / actual: 16.9% / forecast: 15.3% / USD/JPY — down

Japan's year-on-year machinery-order growth posted an impressive surge in June. The reading was supported by:

• a large month?on?month increase in orders;
• a level well above the long-term average of 0.93%;
• recovery in industrial demand for equipment.

Analysts expect order growth to slow in July, which could soften the yen.

September 16, 09:00 / UK / Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August / prev.: 2.6% / actual: 2.9% / forecast: 3.1% / GBP/USD — up

UK annual consumer inflation accelerated in July to a four-month high. Price dynamics were driven by:

• higher energy caps and a 14.7% jump in gas prices;
• renewed price rises for furniture, clothing, alcohol and tobacco;
• easing transport inflation due to falling diesel costs.

Analysts expect inflation to pick up further in August. Continued price pressures would keep the Bank of England on a hawkish path and support the pound.

September 16, 09:00 / UK / Input-prices index for August / prev.: 7.4% / actual: 4.9% / forecast: 4.7% / GBP/USD — down

UK input-price inflation slowed sharply in July, retreating from prior peaks. The slowdown reflected:

• a reduced annual pace of materials-cost inflation to the weakest level since February;
• a monthly fall in producer input costs of 1.7%.

Markets expect further easing in commodity costs in August. Lower producer input pressures would reduce the need for tighter policy and could weigh on the pound.

September 16, 09:00 / UK / Retail Price Index (RPI) for August / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.5% / GBP/USD — up

The UK retail price index rose in July, posting the largest increase since spring. The print was shaped by:

• RPI accelerating to 3.2% year-on-year;
• a 0.6% monthly rise.

Analysts expect further RPI increases in August. If confirmed, the retail price dynamic would support the pound.

September 16, 12:00 / Eurozone / Industrial production for July / prev.: -0.1% / actual: 0.1% / forecast: -0.3% / EUR/USD — down

Eurozone industrial output returned to slight growth in June, beating expectations. Despite the local improvement, the level remains below the long-term norm of 0.86%. Analysts expect production to weaken again in July. A renewed contraction would weigh on the euro.

September 16, 12:00 / Eurozone / Labour costs, Q2 / prev.: 3.3% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.0% / EUR/USD — down

Hourly labour cost growth in the eurozone slowed in Q1, showing the weakest rise since late 2021. The slowdown reflected:

• a moderation in wage-bill growth;
• a modest rise in non-wage business costs.

Markets expect further deceleration in labour cost growth in Q2. Cooling wage pressures would reduce inflation risks and weigh on the euro.

September 16, 12:00 / Eurozone / Compensation per employee, Q2 / prev.: 3.1% / actual: 3.4% / forecast: 3.2% / EUR/USD — down

Compensation per employee accelerated in the eurozone in Q1. The increase was driven by:

• substantial wage gains in mining, real estate and construction;
• faster pay growth in Germany, Spain, Italy and France.

A projected cooling in pay growth would ease pressure on the euro.

September 16, 15:15 / Canada / Housing starts for August / prev.: 240.8k / actual: 229.1k / forecast: 237.5k / USD/CAD — down

Canadian housing starts fell 5% in July, retreating from June levels. The slowdown reflected:

• a 19% drop in starts in major urban centers;
• a sharp fall in Vancouver (-42%) and Toronto (-10%);
• modest gains in Montreal (+3%).

Analysts expect starts to recover in August. A housing market rebound would support the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD lower.

September 16, 15:30 / Canada / Building permits for July (m/m) / prev.: -3.0% / actual: 18.5% / forecast: -5.8% / USD/CAD — up

Canadian building permits rebounded sharply in June to their highest level in two years. The increase was driven by:

• a C$1.8bn jump in non-residential permits from institutional projects;
• stronger plans for industrial and commercial construction;
• a 6.3% rise in residential permitting.

Markets expect a decline in permits next period. A slowdown in construction activity would weaken the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD up.

September 16, 15:30 / US / Retail sales for August / prev.: 6.8% / actual: 5.0% / forecast: 4.7% / USDX — down

US retail sales growth slowed year-on-year in July, indicating a moderation in consumer spending. The picture reflected:

• growth remaining above the long-term average of 4.76%;
• a sharp slowdown in auto sales;
• constrained consumer spending amid high prices.

Markets expect further moderation in retail activity in August. Softer consumer demand would be a headwind for the dollar.

September 16, 15:30 / US / Export prices for August / prev.: 10.2% / actual: 8.2% / forecast: 8.5% / USDX — up

US export price growth eased from prior highs but remained well above long-run norms. The dynamics reflected:

• a correction after June's spike in external selling prices;
• readings still well above the long-term average of 1.54%;
• a modest easing of trade price pressure.

Markets expect export price acceleration to resume in August. A re-acceleration would support the dollar.

US import price growth slowed from four-year highs in July. The change reflected:

• slower fuel import inflation (25.2%) as energy costs eased;
• faster non-fuel import price growth (4.5%);
• an overall reduction in external inflationary pressure.

Markets expect import prices to pick up in August. If so, the dollar would be supported.

September 16, 15:30 / US / NY Fed business activity index (services) for September (leading) / prev.: 8.7 pts / actual: 0.5 pts / forecast: — / USDX — down

The NY Fed services sector activity index for August plunged, signaling a sharp slowdown. The reading was shaped by:

• deeply negative business climate assessments (-25.7 pts) and worsening supply availability;
• a rise in the input price index to 70.1 pts while selling prices held steady;
• the future activity gauge tumbling to -16.5 pts amid rising business pessimism.

With no consensus forecast, attention shifts to subsequent releases. A buildup of negative service sector sentiment could weigh on the dollar.

September 16, 17:00 / US / NAHB housing market index for September (leading) / prev.: 34 pts / actual: 35 pts / forecast: 34 pts / USDX — down

The NAHB homebuilder confidence index showed a modest rebound in August, beating expectations. The reading reflected:

• a 2-point rise in the current sales measure (to 39);
• six-month forward sales expectations holding at 43;
• a decline in the share of builders offering discounts to 35%.

Analysts expect a corrective pullback in builder sentiment in September. A cooling housing sector would be a headwind for the dollar.

September 16, 17:30 / US / EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: -4.450 mln / actual: -0.391 mln / forecast: 6.729 mln / Brent — down

US commercial crude stocks fell slightly in the first week of September, missing expectations for a larger draw. The report showed:

• a 0.684 million-barrel draw at Cushing;
• refinery runs up by 90k b/d;
• gasoline stocks increasing by 1.269 million barrels and distillates by 2.087 million barrels;
• a jump in net crude imports of 1.12 million b/d.

Markets expect a strong inventory build in the next report. If confirmed, that would weigh on Brent.

September 16, 21:00 / US / Federal Reserve interest rate decision / prev.: 3.75% / actual: 3.75% / forecast: 4.00% / USDX — up

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 3.75%. The statement highlighted:

• persistent inflation risks and the Fed's readiness to resume tightening;
• that some officials favor an immediate hike;
• restrictive financial conditions weighing on aggregate demand.

Markets are pricing in further rate increases by the Fed. Expectations of more hawkish action support the US dollar.

Events & speakers to watch

• Sept 15, 11:15 / Eurozone — Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board) — EUR/USD
• Sept 15, 17:00 / Eurozone — Piero Cipollone (ECB Executive Board) — EUR/USD
• Sept 15, 18:00 / UK — Carolyn Wilkins (BoE Financial Policy Committee) — GBP/USD
• Sept 15, 20:00 / Eurozone — Isabel Schnabel (ECB Executive Board) — EUR/USD
• Sept 16, 15:15 / Eurozone — Boris Vujcic (ECB Governing Council) — EUR/USD
• Sept 16, 16:00 / Eurozone — Frank Elderson (ECB Executive Board) — EUR/USD
• Sept 16, 20:00 / Eurozone — Christine Lagarde, ECB President — EUR/USD
• Sept 16, 21:30 / US — Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair — USDX

We also expect remarks from other central bank officials these days; their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they may hint at future policy paths.

This week, the Federal Reserve meeting in the U.S. will surely influence Bitcoin's price. At present, we still have no confidence that the Fed will tighten policy. However, a hike on Wednesday would weigh on Bitcoin, the crypto market, and all risk assets — especially if Kevin Warsh signals that September may not be the only tightening move in the near term. Conversely, if the Fed leaves the key rate unchanged, that would be a lifeline for "digital gold." The market is currently completely flat.

Overall BTC/USD picture on 1D

On the daily TF, Bitcoin continues forming a downtrend and has entered a flat phase. The trend structure is identified as downward, and the CHOCH line sits at $82,800, where the last LH (Lower High) formed. Only above that level can the downtrend be considered complete. For most of 2026, "digital gold" has traded between $60,000 and $82,500, which means the price may remove liquidity from the last LH and start a new move toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Overall BTC/USD picture on 4H

On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin is also clearly flat and has twice removed sell-side liquidity, leading to a drop toward the lower channel boundary. No deviation and buy signal has formed at the lower boundary yet, but that boundary may still be tested soon. As long as price remains within the $75,600–81,200 channel, we advise traders to trade only from the channel's borders. Internal patterns currently do not matter.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend despite the strong mid-August rally. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has essentially already been worked out. We do not believe the downtrend has ended. The recent rise of the top cryptocurrency only weakly resembles a correction, but that is not a sufficient reason to open longs. Liquidity may be taken from the $82,850 high, which could provoke a new leg of the downtrend. On the 4-hour TF, long positions may become relevant in the near term if price forms a deviation around the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Explanations for the illustrations:

CHOCH – change of trend structure.

Liquidity – liquidity, Stop Losses, pending orders that market-makers use to accumulate positions.

FVG – Fair Value Gap. A price area of inefficiency. Price passes through these areas quickly, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, price doesn't react; it impulsively breaks it and then tests it from the other side.

OB – Order block. The candle where a market-maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward move on Monday, though in the second half of the day it bounced from the 1.3465–1.3480 area and corrected slightly. However, traders continue to pressure the pair for one reason: the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The market still believes in U.S. monetary tightening, which supports the dollar, which currently has few growth drivers. In the current circumstances, we can only wait for the Fed meeting to see whether the market was right in its months-long anticipation of an imminent rate hike. The Bank of England's stance on Thursday could also turn more hawkish, while the Fed hike is already largely priced in. Thus, the dollar may continue to strengthen today or tomorrow, but its prospects remain unclear. In our view, a new upward impulse could begin from the 1.3465–1.3480 area.

Technically, the pound completed the formation of an uptrend as the trend line was breached. The dollar may continue to strengthen against its peers, although the only clear reason right now is the market's belief in Fed tightening. Without a breakout above the 1.3465–1.3480 area, the pair will struggle to decline further.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, two buy signals were formed as bounces from the 1.3465–1.3480 area. However, as of Tuesday morning, the price returned to that area, so a third bounce may form today.

COT report

COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with short positions for several months. The net position is negative despite the persistent long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand was quite high in the first half of 2026. The war formally ended, but the conflict persists. Only geopolitics can support the US dollar in the near term. However, until the pair closes below the trend line, we would not count on a strong decline.

In the long run, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently tested that line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated September 8), the "Non-commercial" group closed 11,800 BUY contracts and 2,600 SELL contracts. Thus, the non-commercial traders' net position decreased by 9,200 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has moved into a downward trend. In the medium and long term, the pound still "looks" upward, so we believe any rise in sterling would be logical. We still do not see strong reasons for a prolonged and significant appreciation of the US currency. Even a hypothetical Fed rate-hike decision has already been priced in by the market several times.

For September 15 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3537) and the Kijun-sen (1.3515) can also be sources of signals. We recommend moving the stop-loss to breakeven when price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Tuesday, the UK will publish fairly important reports on unemployment and wages, but we believe market attention is entirely absorbed by the Fed meeting and, to a lesser extent, by the BoE meeting. Thus, we are unlikely to see a strong reaction to the UK data today. The same applies to the weekly ADP report in the US, which holds little value for traders.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3369–1.3377 if price breaks through the 1.3465–1.3480 area. Open long positions if price bounces from the 1.3465–1.3480 area, targeting 1.3515, 1.3537, and 1.3588. Volatility may be low today.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward move on Monday, following a trend that began last week under contentious circumstances. Recall that on Thursday, the European Central Bank raised three key rates for the second time this year. On Friday, the US inflation report showed inflation unchanged at 3.4%. Thus neither event provided grounds for US dollar strength. However, as the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, traders are increasingly betting on monetary tightening. On these expectations, the US currency has continued to rise for the fourth consecutive day. If the market is truly front-running the Fed meeting now, then the dollar's rise should end on Wednesday evening. Yet we again get the sense that the Fed meeting is merely an excuse. On the daily and weekly timeframes, EUR/USD remains within a sideways correction with a small downward tilt, and the market does not yet appear ready for a new leg of the uptrend. Therefore the dollar is gaining not because of monetary-policy fundamentals — since the ECB has been more hawkish in 2026 — but on formal grounds.

Technically, the pair continues forming a new downtrend. The market once again ignored the ECB's "hawkish" decision and is pricing in an as-yet unmade "hawkish" Fed decision. In the short term, the dollar's prospects look more attractive than the euro's. But only in the short term.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, three not-very-good trading signals were formed. The signals were generated when the downward move had, in essence, already ended. Nevertheless, the 1.1536–1.1542 area remains relevant, so new signals may form around it today.

COT report

The latest COT report is dated September 8. On the weekly timeframe illustration, it is clear that non-commercial traders' net position turned "bearish" and has fallen significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding euros in favor of the US dollar over the past six months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar has acted, for a time, as a "reserve currency."

However, we still do not see any fundamental factors for further strengthening of the US currency. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when that factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to normal. And that shelf life may already have expired. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (trend line), but the uptrend will remain relevant. During the recent months of dollar strength, the pair has not approached that line closely.

The placement of the red and blue indicator lines indicates an approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, longs in the "Non-commercial" group fell by 5,000, while shorts rose by 12,700. Accordingly, the net position for the week fell by 17,700 contracts in a week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has reversed down and begun a new downward trend. The ECB should have supported the euro by raising rates for the second time in 2026, but the market now sees only the Fed and its policy tightening. Thus, the dollar can form a new trend out of thin air, and market sentiment and its view of the dollar may change only on Wednesday evening.

For September 15 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1613) and the Kijun?sen (1.1589). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Remember to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal proves false.

On Tuesday, the euro-area and German ZEW economic-sentiment indices will be published, which are unlikely to interest traders in the current circumstances. In the U.S., the much less significant weekly ADP report will be released. There are no grounds for strong moves today, but the market may continue to buy the U.S. currency.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1461–1.1473 if price consolidates below 1.1536–1.1542. A bounce from the 1.1536–1.1542 area will allow you to open long positions targeting 1.1585 and 1.1613. Volatility may again be relatively weak today.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.