The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical news to launch a full-scale advance. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. Geopolitical developments remain highly uncertain at the moment, leaving neither bulls nor bears with a clear advantage. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after the June 5 high is surpassed.

The news background on Tuesday was weak in terms of economic events but strong from a geopolitical perspective. As I have already noted, all intraday movements were driven by geopolitical developments related to the conflict in the Middle East. As of Wednesday morning, further escalation of the conflict had been avoided, while the parties once again exchanged strikes while maintaining the ceasefire. The situation may repeat itself today, as similar developments have occurred every few days. However, with no new strikes reported so far, traders have shifted their attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which will be released later today. Forecasts suggest that inflation in the United States will accelerate to 4.2% year-over-year, but traders are more concerned with the actual reading than with forecasts. The figure could come in significantly above or below expectations. A higher-than-expected reading could trigger renewed selling pressure from bears, while a weaker reading would support bulls. At present, the FOMC is not considering further monetary policy tightening, so only a substantial acceleration in inflation is likely to force the Committee to reconsider its stance.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3327 and reversed in favor of the pound. Therefore, the pair may return to the 1.3482–1.3514 resistance level in the near term. Consolidation below 1.3327 would favor a continuation of the decline toward the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3159. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,291, while short positions declined by 13,471. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 53,000 versus 110,000 contracts. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which is unsurprising given geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to expectations of a prolonged conflict, but the latest developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be reached, although it is unlikely to be quick or easy.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 10 contains only one significant event. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment may be noticeable during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.3408 level on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3349–1.3355 level. That target was nearly reached yesterday. New short positions may be considered on another rebound from 1.3408 or after a close below the 1.3349–1.3355 level. Long positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3349–1.3355 support level, targeting 1.3408. Alternatively, long positions may be considered after a close above 1.3408, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

S&P 500 volatility dynamics

In reality, the root cause is capital rotation. Investors are locking in profits after the blistering rally in chip stocks and reallocating into other assets — chief among them cash set aside for the imminent SpaceX IPO. That float risks becoming the largest in history.

In early June, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up about 96% since January. Baird Private Wealth Management estimates that profit-taking will trim that advance to about 80%. Once chatter about stretched bubbles starts circulating, investors dump names with overstretched fundamentals: anything with a forward P/E above 30 becomes a selling candidate.

Portfolio diversification is not limited to tech. The consumer sector sits in the crosshairs — it would suffer most if inflation remains elevated and the Fed tightens policy — and investors are instead buying equities that pay high dividends.

It is unlikely the S&P 500's slide was driven primarily by events in the Middle East. There has been an escalation — Iran shot down a US helicopter, the US responded with strikes on 20 targets, and Tehran retaliated against other regional states. Iran says US forces must leave the Middle East to ensure its security.

Yet oil did not rally on the escalation. Brent continued the post-truce decline. The market may have adapted to a closed Strait of Hormuz. If so, that would free US President Donald Trump to pursue an aggressive campaign against Tehran without fearing a spike in oil and a jump in US inflation.

Equities continue to live in a world of high earnings and a resilient economy. That said, rising risks of interest rate hikes by the Fed are dampening bulls' bravado on the broad index.

Technically, the S&P 500 is retracing toward its uptrend on the daily chart. This allowed traders to open long positions at 7,300, which can be increased on moves above 7,540 and 7,480.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader

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Iran immediately responded: the IRGC announced drone strikes on the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, as well as on American military facilities in Jordan and Kuwait. Explosions were also reported on Qeshm Island and along Iran's southern coast.

Despite all that is happening, Trump characterized the retaliation as "very strong and very powerful"; however, the US Central Command chose its words carefully—the operation was described as a "proportional response," signaling Washington's desire to contain the confrontation without transitioning to a full-scale renewal of war.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that the country would not leave any attack unanswered. However, by evening, both Iran and Israel announced a cessation of mutual strikes, with the caveat that this eased market pressure and led to a slight rebound in risk assets. Netanyahu promised to refrain from firing at Iran if it does not strike again, although he confirmed the intention to continue operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian military command warned that if strikes in Lebanon continue, the response would be "much harsher and more devastating."

In addition to developments in the Middle East, the second important event today will be the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' report on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. The consensus forecast suggests a CPI increase of 4.2% year-over-year compared to 3.8% in April—this would be the highest figure since April 2023 and significantly above the average of 2.8% over the last 12 months. Month-over-month, a growth of 0.5% is expected compared to 0.6% in April. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise to 2.9% year-over-year from 2.8% in April, while month-over-month is expected to slow to 0.3% from 0.4%.

It is worth noting that this report is being released at an extremely tense moment. The May Non-Farm Payrolls report, released last Friday, showed employment growth more than double expectations—causing the euro, pound, and other assets to plummet against the dollar—and markets have fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of at least one rate hike in the US in 2026 exceeds 70%. If the CPI data comes in above consensus, the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, will find himself in a situation where, at his first meeting on June 16–17, he will need to send strong signals to the market. This is a positive scenario for the dollar.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, bulls need to consider how to reclaim the 1.1555 level. Only this will allow them to aim for a test at 1.1580. From there, one could reach 1.1600, but doing this without support from major players will be quite problematic. The furthest target will be the high of 1.1625. If the trading instrument declines toward 1.1530, I expect serious action from major buyers. If no one is there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low of 1.1505 or open long positions from 1.1480.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. Only this will allow them to aim for 1.3415, which will be quite difficult to break through. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3440. If the pair falls, bearish traders will try to gain control over 1.3360. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBPUSD down to a low of 1.3330, with the prospect of reaching 1.3299.

As always, the housing market provided a pleasant surprise. Existing home sales in May accelerated to their highest level in a year—4.17 million on an annualized basis. The median price rose by 1.3% year-over-year to $429,300, and the number of listed properties slightly increased to 1.55 million. The structure of buyers is indicative: first-time buyers accounted for 35% of transactions—the highest percentage since June 2020. This suggests that the market is gradually returning to a healthier, organic model of demand—despite mortgage rates remaining above 6% for the fourth consecutive year.

The trade balance also pleased. The April deficit shrank by 1.2% to $55.9 billion, slightly better than the consensus forecast of $56.1 billion. The main driver was oil exports—crude oil shipments increased by 60% over the month. The war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz redirected global demand for American energy resources, and the US is actively taking advantage of this window of opportunity. Imports rose by 2%—primarily due to computers and semiconductors, reflecting the ongoing investment boom in data center construction.

As I noted earlier, the shadow over this generally positive picture is cast by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. In May, it fell by 0.6 points to 95.3—the lowest since October 2024. It is worth noting that after Trump's re-election, the index sharply soared to a six-year high in December 2024; however, it has steadily retreated since then. Now, all post-election optimism is effectively neutralized. Small businesses are a sensitive barometer of the real state of the economy: they are the first to feel rising costs, higher interest rates, and weakening consumer demand.

In aggregate, this data paints a picture of the American economy that is holding on, but with increasing difficulty. Large businesses and exporters are benefiting from the geopolitical situation, and the housing market has found a new equilibrium. However, small businesses—the foundation of employment and consumer activity—are losing confidence. Against the backdrop of today's anticipated May CPI, projected at 4.2%, and the first Federal Reserve meeting under Warsh's leadership next week, this combination of signals intensifies the central bank's dilemma: the economy is not broken yet, but it is cracking—and inflation continues to rise.

The price test at 160.23 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy dollars. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 160.39.

A new chapter in Iranian-American relations, marked by another act of aggression from the United States against Iran, has not gone unnoticed on the international stage. The rapidly unfolding events once again demonstrated how geopolitical tensions can directly influence global financial markets, dictating the rules for currency pairs. In this turbulent environment, the US dollar, traditionally a safe haven for investors during periods of uncertainty, showed noticeable strengthening. The Japanese yen, often correlated with global risks, experienced the opposite pressure, showing a significant decline.

However, many experts monitoring the situation at the Bank of Japan anticipate at least two increases in the key interest rate this year, the first of which will occur next week. Many believe that the war in Iran could provoke a sustained spike in inflation, forcing the central bank to act more aggressively. This is currently the only factor preventing the yen from further decline.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 160.44 (green line on the chart), with a target of 160.59 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.59, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.32, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 160.44 and 160.59.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level of 160.32 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.09, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment; it only takes a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.44, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 160.32 and 160.09.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3404 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test at 1.3404 occurred while the MACD was in the overbought area, prompting the implementation of scenario #2 to sell the pound. As a result, the pair decreased by 40 pips.

Another wave of military attacks from the US and Iran has put pressure on risk assets, which, in turn, prompted purchases of the US dollar. The geopolitical tension in the Persian Gulf will inevitably continue to affect global financial markets, creating uncertainty and prompting traders to seek refuge in safe-haven assets. The British pound, as the currency of a country whose economy is closely tied to international trade and energy resources, is highly susceptible to global events.

Today, the lack of fresh data on economic activity in the UK will not help the pound rise. Without clear signals of growth or stabilization in the British economy, traders struggle to identify substantial arguments for opening long positions on the GBP/USD pair. As is known, the currency market reacts sensitively to macroeconomic indicators, and their scarcity creates uncertainty, which typically weighs on risk assets, including the pound.

In this situation, the focus naturally shifts to geopolitical risks, which are currently concentrated in the Middle East. Any escalation of tensions in this region can trigger a new flight of investors from risks, leading to a strengthening of safe-haven assets.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3389 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3409 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3409, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). One can only expect growth in the pound today within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3377, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3389 and 1.3409.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level at 1.3377 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3352, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3389, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3377 and 1.3352.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1573 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test at 1.1573 occurred while the MACD was in the overbought area, prompting the implementation of scenario #2 for selling euros. As a result, the pair decreased by 40 pips.

Recent events in the Middle East, related to the deterioration of relations between the US and Iran, once again caused a noticeable surge in the US dollar. In particular, reports of US strikes on Iran directly affected the dynamics of the currency pair. Further developments require close attention from market participants. Escalation of the conflict or, conversely, diplomatic resolution will have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, including the European currency.

Today, the first half of the day will be marked only by the publication of Italy's macroeconomic data on changes in industrial production volume. Analysts agree that the results will likely not provide significant support to the European currency. Statistics reflecting the state of one of the key sectors of the Italian economy are traditionally closely monitored by market participants but have little influence on the direction of the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1556 (green line on the chart), with a target to reach 1.1576. At 1.1576, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect growth in the euro only after good data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1540, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1556 and 1.1576.

Selling scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1540 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1522, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will only return in case of very weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1556, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1540 and 1.1522.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Markets were again under pressure, the fourth down day in five. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell by 1.6%, and South Korea's KOSPI lost more than 4%. US index futures are down about 0.2% today after Tuesday's volatile session on Wall Street. Gold slid by roughly 2%, dipping below $4,200/oz. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by two basis points to 4.53%. Two-year yields are at their highest level in more than a year.

All eyes are on tonight's release of US May CPI data. The consensus calls for headline CPI to rise by 4.2% year-on-year (vs. 3.8% in April). Core inflation is expected at 2.9% vs. 2.8% a month earlier. For new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will preside over his first FOMC meeting on June 16–17, the CPI print will be the first serious policy test. If the number comes in above expectations, it will be extremely difficult to convince markets that interest rate cuts remain possible.

The bond market is already drawing its own conclusions. Traders are actively positioning for several Fed hikes over the coming months; some see a move as early as September. National Australia Bank said yesterday the FOMC will likely drop language hinting at easing next week, and Warsh risks taking a firmer stance than the market expects. The longer the economy remains resilient amid rising inflation, the greater the pressure on the Fed to act.

Geopolitics is adding to the nerves. The US carried out fresh airstrikes on Iran after an American military helicopter was downed. Oil barely reacted — Brent partially recouped Tuesday's losses to settle at near $92. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains de facto blockaded, and talks are stalled. For the Fed, this means the energy price shock will not disappear in the coming months, narrowing room for a policy pause with every new headline.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the resistance level of $7,355. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,381. Maintaining control above $7,404 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,339. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,319 and open the way to $7,300.

News that American forces launched strikes on Iran, shortly after President Donald Trump accused Tehran of downing an American military helicopter off the coast of Oman, led to a decline in risk assets and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The market's reaction was immediate: the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar, already under pressure from uncertainty, declined sharply, while the U.S. dollar, traditionally considered a safe haven in times of geopolitical tension, received new impetus for growth. Clearly, the tension in the Middle East, fueled by another round of escalation between Washington and Tehran, could not help but affect global economic stability.

Today, in the first half of the day, data on changes in Italy's industrial production, a key indicator of the country's economy, is expected to be released. These figures, published by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), could have a significant impact on the national currency's exchange rate and on trader sentiment.

Preliminary analyst expectations suggest that industrial production in Italy may have grown by a minimal 0.1% in April this year, amid mixed signals: on the one hand, persistently high inflation and rising energy costs could be putting pressure on production costs and slowing growth rates. On the other hand, steady demand from key trading partners, including those in the Eurozone, could support production volumes. However, only data that significantly deviates from forecasts will influence the euro's exchange rate.

The lack of significant macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom today means the GBP/USD pair lacks internal catalysts for a substantial recovery. The absence of fresh macroeconomic indicators leaves the British pound hanging, depriving it of the essential support needed to reinforce an upward move. The market will likely trade within a narrow range until new drivers emerge, with the primary focus shifting to external factors: the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, global market sentiment, and any statements from Trump regarding the Middle East.

The geopolitical situation in this region remains the key factor shaping sentiment in the currency market, thereby influencing the dynamics of major currency pairs. In such a situation, without local news capable of sustaining interest in the pound, the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue moving within the current trading range or show slight fluctuations, reacting only to external shocks.

If the data aligns with analysts' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below analysts' expectations, the Momentum strategy should be employed.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1556 may lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1579 and 1.1601;
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1529 may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1506 and 1.1480;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3400 may lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3435 and 1.3471;
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3370 may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3336 and 1.3307;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Buying on a breakout of 160.43 may lead to an increase in the dollar to around 160.67 and 160.91;
• Selling on a breakout of 160.24 may lead to a sell-off of the dollar to around 160.02 and 159.83;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1559, returning below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1530, returning to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3397, returning below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3361, returning to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7039, returning below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.7015, returning to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3960, returning below this level;
• I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3938, returning to this level;

Any signs of growth and correction are immediately perceived by traders as reasons to sell.

But there is also a positive aspect. According to CryptoQuant, the share of Bitcoin supply that is at a loss on a 7-day moving average has reached 50%—the highest level in 2026. This means that half of all coins in circulation are now held by holders who bought them at prices higher than the current one. Historically, such levels above 50% have coincided with periods of market capitulation: the moment when selling pressure begins to wane because everyone who wanted and could realize a loss has already done so. Simply put, there are no sellers left—and the market begins to find a bottom.

The signal appeared in a context that makes it particularly significant. After four weeks of continuous outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the market lost $5.4 billion in institutional capital. Bitcoin has broken below $60,000 and is targeting $53,000—the average purchase price for investors, which the CEO of CryptoQuant has termed the historical point of completion for bearish cycles. Strategy has once again returned to purchases, adding another 1,550 BTC to its balance.

Of course, it's premature to say that the market has turned and that a strong pump will now follow, but the first signs of a complete end to the bearish cycle are emerging.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $61,600, targeting a rise to the level of $62,600. At around $62,600, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $61,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $61,600 and $62,600.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $61,200, targeting a decline to the level of $60,400. At around $60,400, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $61,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $61,100 and $60,400.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $1,636, targeting a rise to the level of $1,668. At around $1,668, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,618 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $1,636 and $1,668.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $1,618, targeting a decline to the level of $1,582. At around $1,582, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,636 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $1,618 and $1,582.

Meanwhile, Strategy, the company once led by Michael Saylor, whose name is associated with the company's strategy for accumulating bitcoins, has acquired a new batch of coins. This time, the purchase amounted to 1,550 BTC and occurred a week after selling 32 BTC, marking the first instance in history in which Strategy sold rather than bought. As we can see, Strategy's new purchases do not prevent Bitcoin from falling, as institutional investors have been more inclined to sell than buy in recent months. The company now holds over 800,000 coins, prompting a reasonable question: What does the company plan to do with them in the future? Strategy does not wish to sell bitcoins; will it continue to buy indefinitely?

However, we are more interested in the dynamics of Bitcoin itself than in Strategy's long-term plans. Due to the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East, demand for risk assets continues to decline. Yields on U.S. Treasuries are rising, and the Federal Reserve may raise the key rate this year, despite Kevin Warsh's arrival. As we have mentioned, we do not consider these factors to be the cause of Bitcoin's decline in recent weeks. However, it is undeniable that they do not encourage investors to buy. Saylor himself believes that the AI boom is to blame for Bitcoin's decline. The only remaining question is, how long will it last? There is an opinion that the AI sector is awaiting a financial crash, as huge investments have been poured into it, but whether they will pay off is a big question. The U.S. stock market is extremely overheated, and many experts predict a significant decline in the very near future. Thus, we currently see no grounds for a new "bullish" trend for Bitcoin.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of an upward trend beginning. A new "bearish" FVG pattern formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range, so this area serves as a POI (Point of Interest) for traders in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, patterns may also be forming, but the movement is currently so strong that we would recommend trading on higher timeframes, such as the daily.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

The daily timeframe continues to show a downward trend that began last August. The key pattern for selling has been and remains the "bearish" order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the movement provoked by this signal may be strong and prolonged. We do not consider it complete, as there are no signs of a conclusion of the downward trend in either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near future, Ethereum may resume its decline, targeting $1,391 and $788. An upward correction can be anticipated when at least some bullish pattern or other sign of an upward price reversal forms, at least on the 4-hour timeframe. Among the new POI for short positions, we highlight the FVG in the area of $1,624 - $1,720.

Explanations for Illustrations:

CHOCH – change of the trend structure.

Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to accumulate their positions.

FVG – area of price inefficiency. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to these areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it; instead, it breaks through it impulsively and then tests it from the other side.

OB – order block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to collect liquidity for forming their position in the opposite direction.

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, but the sole event of the day could trigger significant market volatility. Recall that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated in recent months to 3.8%, and it may rise to 4.2% by the end of May. Thus, high inflation and the recovery of the U.S. labor market in 2026 could trigger a tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Moreover, this could happen not at the end of the year as many currently expect, but much earlier. The Fed meeting will take place next week, and we will see how the Fed, under Kevin Warsh, plans to respond to the rapidly rising inflation. In the UK, Germany, and the EU, today's event calendars are empty.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing significant among the fundamental events for Wednesday. The European Central Bank meeting will take place on Thursday, while the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England are scheduled for next week. Therefore, representatives of the central banks cannot comment on monetary policy at this time. They are in a "quiet period." The ECB is highly likely to raise rates this week, but the European currency currently cannot extract any dividends from this.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to be unsatisfactory, as Iran and the U.S. have once again moved closer to resuming conflict and failing negotiations. Talks between Washington and Tehran are ongoing, and according to the U.S. president, they are "very successful." However, there have been no confirmations from Iran regarding the success of diplomacy. Quite the opposite. The parties regularly violate ceasefire conditions, and Iran consistently refutes Trump's peacemaking rhetoric. The new week has begun with new mutual shelling in the Middle East and the downing of an American helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. Judge for yourself how close Tehran and Washington are to a peace agreement...

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade relatively actively, as important geopolitical news may emerge today, and the U.S. inflation report will be published. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains a key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair also traded in different directions on Tuesday, as during the day the market first reacted to Trump's promises of a swift end to the war with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and then to the Iranian downing of an American helicopter and Trump's threats to carry out an act of retaliation. Only God knows at what stage the negotiations with Tehran are, but we tend to believe that they are far from completion and that the parties are far from mutual understanding. Let's recall that Tehran regularly denies Trump's claims about the closeness of a deal. Yesterday, the U.S. president stated that Iran is ready to abandon nuclear weapons, which Tehran has also repeatedly denied in the past. Essentially, on Tuesday, Iranian officials didn't even need to make official denial statements; they simply shot down an American helicopter. There's no point in trying to determine who is right or wrong in this situation, as no one will tell the truth. The British pound remains within the 1.3331-1.3476 range, and the market remains in a state of complete uncertainty.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, several interesting trading signals were formed. During the Asian trading session, the price bounced well from the 1.3319-1.3331 area, but not all novice traders were able to take advantage of this signal. The pair then broke the 1.3380-1.3386 area; however, the upward momentum essentially ended there. Two sell signals in the second half of the day suggest the possibility of the pair declining toward the 1.3319-1.3331 area today.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend as the geopolitical situation remains consistently poor, and the ascending trend line has been breached. However, without a full resumption of the war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect the growth it saw in February-March. Individual events may still prompt further strengthening (as happened on Friday), but we do not believe the market will trigger a new wave of risk aversion towards the dollar. The dollar under Trump is itself a risk asset.

On Wednesday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.3319-1.3331 if the price bounces from the 1.3380-1.3386 area. A price consolidation above the 1.3380-1.3386 area will allow for long positions with a target of 1.3456.

On the 5-minute timeframe, current levels to trade are 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. On Tuesday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, but in the U.S., an important inflation report will be released. Additionally, America may strike Iran as a retaliation for the downed helicopter.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair had an interesting and, most importantly, entertaining trading session on Tuesday. It was not just the movements of the euro or the dollar that were entertaining; the geopolitical backdrop was also quite lively. As we have pointed out many times, the geopolitical situation can change about five times a day. The market sometimes ignores certain news, but in other cases, traders cannot control their emotions, leading to market "swings." On Tuesday morning, Donald Trump once again stated that a deal with Iran is close to being signed, and by the evening, it became known that Iran had shot down an American helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after, Trump stated that this act of aggression would not go unanswered. Essentially, this sums up what we need to know about Trump's deal, which has been "on the verge of being signed" for the past two months. It is not surprising that the dollar fell in the first half of the day and rose in the second. The downward trend persists, as there is no sign of a peace deal between Iran and the U.S. The market continues to ignore most fundamental and macroeconomic events.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, two buy trading signals were formed. During the Asian trading session, the pair bounced off the 1.1527-1.1531 area and rose toward 1.1584-1.1594. It fell just a few pips short of hitting that target. During the American session, the pair returned to the 1.1527-1.1531 area and bounced again.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the range has ended, and the downward trend has resumed after three weeks of stagnation, but further growth of the American currency will depend entirely on developments in geopolitical events. Trump continues to promise that a deal with Iran will be finalized soon. If this happens, the dollar will start losing positions.

On Wednesday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.1455-1.1474 if the price breaks below the 1.1527-1.1531 area. Long positions can be considered on a bounce from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, with targets of 1.1584-1.1594.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider are 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Wednesday, we can expect the U.S. May inflation report, but the fate of the EUR/USD pair will again be determined by geopolitics. For instance, the U.S. may deliver a "retaliation strike" for the downed helicopter today, which would signify another violation of the ceasefire and a potential collapse of negotiations.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher on Tuesday despite the lack of significant geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fundamental events. Secondary reports from Germany and the U.S. failed to prompt a rise in the pair, partly because they were not particularly positive for the euro and the pound. The only notable fundamental event is the upcoming European Central Bank meeting, but its outcome is already known and was anticipated last week. The ECB is expected to raise rates, which should support the euro and possibly even the British pound, which generally correlates with it. However, instead, we saw a decline in the GBP/USD pair.

We do not believe that the market should have ignored the Nonfarm Payrolls report. This is indeed an important report that gave the Federal Reserve the opportunity to move towards tightening monetary policy very soon. Previously, the weakness in the U.S. labor market held the Fed back from raising the key rate. While it was not the only reason, it was one of the main reasons. Last year, amid a weakening labor market, the Fed was even forced to cut the key rate three times. Although the market does not believe the Fed will tighten monetary policy this summer, that does not mean such a scenario is completely excluded.

So what was behind the pair's upward movement on Tuesday? In our view, it was nothing specific. Macroeconomics could not provoke a rise in the British pound. There were no fundamental events during the day. Traders have long stopped paying attention to Trump's promises. No changes occurred in the situation in the Middle East. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing; both sides continue to issue ultimatums to each other, and neither is ready to make significant concessions. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and no independent experts see any signs of an end to the war, of a peace agreement being signed soon, or of the Strait of Hormuz being unblocked.

Traders have even become accustomed to the continuous violations of the ceasefire conditions established on April 8 by both Iran and the U.S. Initially, the market feared another strike from Iran or Israel or missile attacks from the U.S., but now it has become accustomed to them, realizing that they will not affect the negotiation process. Tehran and Washington do not want to resume war, nor are they willing to make concessions to sign an agreement; they respond to each attack in kind to prevent the other side from interpreting a willingness to negotiate as a weakness or readiness to accept any ultimatum. The situation is in a complete stalemate.

Thus, market movements are currently highly random. On Friday, the dollar logically rose by 100 pips, while on Monday and Tuesday it fell for no visible reason. Tomorrow it may rise again. The market itself is confused in this turmoil. We tend to think that the first two days of the week exhibited a typical technical correction.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 81 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Wednesday, June 10, we expect movement within a range bounded by levels 1.3297 and 1.3459. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upward, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the U.S. dollar to appreciate in the long term. However, 2026 is shaping up to be very positive for the dollar due to geopolitics. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading to the downside can be executed with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3245. The market situation changes frequently, and it continues to predominantly track geopolitical news, which lacks a uniform character.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the prospective price channel within which the pair will likely remain for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is near.

The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher on Tuesday, suggesting the range has resumed. How is this possible if the pair left a three-week sideways channel on Friday? It is possible, but with some nuances that should be understood. Three weeks ago, the European currency was trading in a range against the dollar, and traders stopped reacting not only to macroeconomic fundamentals but even to geopolitics. In other words, the market found itself under the following conditions. Geopolitics is recognized as the most significant factor determining market sentiment by 90%, but the market is also ready to react to events rather than to mere rumors, promises, and inside information. Since no globally significant events have occurred during this time, traders have found no reason to buy or sell.

Then came Friday, and the mega-important, highly publicized Nonfarm Payrolls report. The pair plummeted more than 100 pips, yet the market's attitude toward macroeconomics, fundamentals, and geopolitics did not change. The market still shows little interest in any economic events, and there are virtually no geopolitical events. Therefore, after Friday's decline, we now observe an increase, which most experts attribute to a rise in market risk sentiment. Of course, since Donald Trump promised for the 37th time to end the war and sign a deal with Iran...

During Trump's first term in office, statistical agencies and portals started counting how many times per day the U.S. president made false statements. Over his four-year presidency, it was estimated that Trump averaged 14.7 false statements per day. We pointed this out to traders last year, when the market repeatedly reacted to the American president's promises or threats. Later, the TACO principle emerged, which essentially means the same thing but in a different wrapper—Trump constantly promises and then "backs down."

Yesterday, he claimed for the 37th time that "a deal with Iran is imminent and could be signed very soon." 37 times in two months. Essentially, Trump is making the same promise every two days. Therefore, we do not consider the fall of the American currency on Tuesday to be in any way connected to Trump's promises to end the war in the Middle East. The market can stumble upon the same rake twice or even five times. But 37 times is too much.

What we saw on Tuesday was a return of quotes to a convenient price range. That is, back into the sideways channel of 1.1597-1.1658. In the last two months, the American currency has strengthened well, but its long-term prospects have not changed. The dollar can only rely on a resumption of war in the Middle East, which we hope to avoid.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 10 is 65 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move within a range bounded by levels 1.1483 and 1.1613 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating a trend change to bullish. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area and formed two "bearish" divergences, warning of the onset of a downward correction that is still not complete. On Friday, it entered the oversold area, signaling a possible end to the correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1536

S2 – 1.1475

S3 – 1.1414

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1658

R3 – 1.1719

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, presumably a correction within the context of a global upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, and only the geopolitical factor regularly supports it. If the price is below the moving average, short positions may be considered with targets at 1.1483 and 1.1475. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1719 and 1.1780. The market continues to move away from geopolitical factors, but in recent weeks the dollar has been in demand as hopes for peace in the Middle East have weakened.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the prospective price channel within which the pair will likely remain for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is near.

The GBP/USD currency pair also showed initial growth, followed by a decline on Tuesday. For the same reasons, there were no important reports coming from the UK, and European (German) reports on industrial production and the trade balance could not stimulate European currencies with their results. As for American reports, the data on existing home sales is unlikely to have spurred a sharp change in market sentiment and dollar growth. Therefore, we believe that the pair's movements on Tuesday were again fully dependent on geopolitical factors. In the first half of the day, risk-averse sentiment prevailed due to Trump's new promises (does anyone still believe them?), while in the second half, risk-on sentiment emerged (though the precise reasons remain unknown). Today, the U.S. will release the inflation report, which could trigger volatility, and we have little doubt that new geopolitical news will emerge. Thus, movements during the day may again be mixed.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend continues, and the price has failed to consolidate above the Kijun-sen line. The price is located below the Ichimoku indicator lines, but there is currently no trend line, and Friday's dollar growth may be a one-time occurrence. Geopolitics no longer provides the same support for the dollar as it did previously, but in 2026, many factors favor the American currency. Significant reasons are required for a new price decline.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, five trading signals were formed. The first sell signal near 1.3369-1.3377 proved false, but the other signals enabled traders to profit. For example, breaking the 1.3369-1.3377 area allowed for long positions, while consolidation below the critical line allowed for shorts. The profit was modest for both trades, as volatility during the European and American sessions was still closer to low.

COT Report

The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has shifted consistently in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are generally close to zero. Currently, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders still dominating in terms of short positions. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies is low.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, which are clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors are currently the priority, which have recently provided strong support to the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East is not yet resolved, the U.S. dollar may still see growth. According to the latest COT report (dated June 2), the "Non-commercial" group closed 4,300 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 9,200 contracts over the week.

GBP/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has ended its upward trend amid renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and relations between Iran and the U.S. The macroeconomic and fundamental background still does not significantly influence the pair's movements (with rare exceptions). We do not believe that without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar can show strong growth, but the American currency's position is currently more favorable than that of the British pound.

For June 10, we highlight the following important levels for trading: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3437) and Kijun-sen (1.3392) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Wednesday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, while the U.S. will release an important inflation report that will affect the Federal Reserve's rate decision next week. Additionally, new geopolitical information may come in throughout the day.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting the 1.3179-1.3187 range if price consolidates below the 1.3369-1.3377 area. Long positions can be opened on a bounce from the 1.3369-1.3377 area, but the Ichimoku indicator lines are in close proximity to this area, making long positions less of a priority.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are indicated by thick red lines, around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extremum levels are indicated by thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in varying directions on Tuesday. In the first half of the day, an increase was observed, which may have been prompted by more of Donald Trump's promises about the closeness of a deal with Iran. However, in the second half of the day, a crash occurred, triggered by one event—the Iranian government's denial of Trump's statements. Let's remember that the U.S. president has promised a deal "within the next couple of days, a couple of weeks" before. However, in all previous cases, Iranian officials denied these promises. On Tuesday, Trump stated not only about the closeness of an agreement but also about Iran's consent to abandon nuclear weapons. We are almost certain that this information is not accurate. Therefore, it is currently unclear what caused the sharp rise of the dollar in the second half of the day, but we assume it relates to official statements from Tehran. Thus, geopolitical fluctuations continue to manifest themselves vividly, and the geopolitical backdrop can change multiple times within a day.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend has resumed, but whether it will continue remains a big question. If Tehran and Washington somehow sign a deal, demand for the U.S. currency will decrease. If inflation in the U.S. begins to slow, the Federal Reserve will not face a dilemma about whether to tighten monetary policy, which would also weaken the position of the U.S. dollar. A new inflation report will be published today.

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed on Tuesday. Initially, the pair perfectly bounced off the level of 1.1542, allowing traders to open long positions. Afterward, the price bounced off the critical line, creating an opportunity for short positions. By the end of the day, the 1.1542 level was reached, so traders could open two trades and profit on both.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 2. On the weekly timeframe illustration, it is evident that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has served as a "reserve currency" for some time. However, this process may already be complete.

We still do not see any fundamental factors to strengthen the European currency, while there are plenty of factors for the U.S. dollar to decline. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor runs out of "shelf life," everything will revert to the way it was. And that shelf life may have already expired. In the long term, the euro may decline to $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over the past few months, the pair has not come very close to this line.

The positioning of the indicator's red and blue lines suggests parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 12,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 7,000. Consequently, the net position increased by 21,400 contracts in a week.

EUR/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense; it is not worsening, but Washington and Tehran cannot agree on at least a temporary peace deal. If new signs of a resumption of war in the Middle East do not emerge and a memorandum of understanding is signed, the dollar will begin to lose positions. But for now, we see neither a deal nor a resurgence of war.

For June 10, we highlight the following important trading levels: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1637) and Kijun-sen (1.1573). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be factored into the determination of trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss at breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Wednesday, only one report is scheduled for release in the Eurozone and the U.S., and it is quite significant. Inflation in the U.S. is virtually guaranteed to accelerate in May, but the market may ignore this report as it has been prone to doing lately. However, a sharp rise in inflation will increase the probability that the Fed will tighten monetary policy in 2026.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1444 if the price consolidates below 1.1542. Long positions can be opened if there is consolidation above 1.1542, with a target of 1.1585.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are indicated by thick red lines, around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extremum levels are indicated by thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The PMI index for May shows a noticeable slowdown in economic activity after a strong growth in April. Particularly indicative is the sharp decline in the services sector—the steepest in the last four years. Conversely, the manufacturing sector is currently stable, with consistent growth in production and orders. Retail sales in April reflected a decline in consumer sentiment, showing the most significant monthly drop in a year. In April, job losses accelerated (-100,000), and the unemployment rate reached 5.0%.

All of these are quite troubling data points, limiting the BoE's ability to adjust interest rates. Although inflation in April was lower than expected (core inflation continued to decline, and the impact of energy prices has not yet fully manifested), the situation could change. Producer prices are already showing strong growth in both sectors—manufacturing and services. This growth significantly outpaces the Eurozone indicators, creating a basis for it to be reflected in consumer prices in the near future.

Despite systematic calls for a rate hike, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey maintains a cautious rhetoric. He admits the possibility of exceeding the target inflation level, citing uncertainty about the impact of the war in Iran on the economy and weak growth rates.

Overall, the situation appears complex. The BoE must balance the need to combat inflation with the risk of exacerbating the impending economic downturn. Much will be clarified next week, as reports on industrial production, the trade balance, consumer inflation, and the labor market will be sequentially published before the BoE meeting.

Comparing the threats faced by the European Central Bank and the BoE, the latter's threats are clearly higher, suggesting that the dynamics of the pound are likely to underperform compared to the euro.

The net short position in the pound has decreased over the reporting week to -4.4 billion; the bearish advantage is stable, yet the calculated price indicates a rising likelihood of corrective growth.

Previously, we expected the GBP/USD pair to decline to the support level of 1.3299. The pound fell slightly short of this mark, and now the probability of an upward bounce has increased; however, there are no reasons for confident growth. The nearest resistance is in the 1.3440/50 range, where sell-off renewals are possible.

If the U.S. inflation report on Wednesday is weaker than expected, growth may continue towards 1.3508. However, long-term reasons for a bullish reversal are not observed, so after the completion of the correction, another downward impulse is expected, updating support at the levels of 1.3299/3305.

Looking at the W1 timeframe, we see that the USD/CAD pair has been in an upward trend for six consecutive weeks. This price dynamic is due not only to the overall strengthening of the American currency (amid a rise in risk-averse sentiment) but also to the weakness of the Canadian dollar, resulting from the slowing Canadian economy.

Let's recall that after revising Canada's GDP growth data for the fourth quarter of 2025, the statistics office reported a 1.0% decrease in the economy. In the first quarter of this year, the country's GDP also declined by 0.1% (against a forecast of 1.5% growth). Thus, after two quarters, the Canadian economy has entered a phase of technical recession.

However, the structure of this decline is much more important than the mere fact of two "negative" quarters. The most concerning aspect is the reduction in business investment. Corporate investments have been declining for five consecutive quarters, and in the first quarter of this year, they fell by an additional 0.7%. This is indeed a worrying signal, as investments determine future economic productivity. Government capital expenditures have also decreased by 2.5%, primarily due to reduced military spending.

Furthermore, the Canadian real estate market, which has long been a growth driver, has exhibited negative dynamics and has struggled to withstand a prolonged period of high interest rates. Declines have been recorded in both new construction and transaction costs, indicating reduced activity in the secondary market.

Consumer spending increased by 0.4%, which at first glance indicates a revival of consumer activity. However, this growth was achieved at the expense of reduced savings: the household savings rate has fallen to its lowest level in two years, at 3.5%. At the same time, expenses for servicing mortgages and other debts rose by 0.7%, indicating increased financial pressure on households. The growth of imports (by 2.9%) has also significantly slowed down the economy. Meanwhile, the total export volume decreased by 0.1% due to a reduction in car and light truck shipments (a consequence of the White House's tariff policy).

All this, as they say, is one side of the coin. On the other side are the "Canadian Nonfarms." The paradox is that while GDP is declining, the Canadian labor market is demonstrating remarkable resilience. In May, the economy created nearly 88,000 jobs (against a forecast of +10,000), while the unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% (against a forecast of 6.9%). Notably, the overall growth in employment was ensured exclusively by the full-time employment component, while the temporary job indicator showed negative dynamics. Additionally, GDP per capita grew by about 0.9% year-on-year, thanks to tightening immigration policies (population growth rates significantly slowed).

Given these conflicting signals, it can be assumed that the Bank of Canada will try to maintain balance in its rhetoric, delivering neutral messages that emphasize a wait-and-see position. Notably, the central bank representatives in their recent speeches have not dramatized the situation regarding the economic slowdown. In particular, Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers recently stated that we should not draw far-reaching conclusions based solely on a formal definition of a technical recession, since preliminary data and leading indicators point to a recovery in activity already underway in the second quarter. Indeed, operational estimates of growth indicate that Canada's GDP increased by about 0.4% in April, suggesting that the economy may be emerging from the downturn.

Thus, "optimistic-wait-and-see" outcomes from the Bank of Canada's June meeting may support the Canadian dollar, especially against the backdrop of disappointing first-quarter GDP growth data. The realization of such a scenario will exert pressure on the pair, allowing USD/CAD sellers to push lower towards the two nearest support levels: 1.3900 (the Kijun-sen line on the four-hour chart) and 1.3870 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the same timeframe).

While the U.S. economy is flourishing, the Eurozone is just beginning to show signs of life. This is evidenced by the first increase in Germany's industrial production since the start of the armed conflict in the Middle East.

Dynamics of Industrial Production, Exports, and Imports in Germany

However, this is just a drop in the ocean of European problems. The currency bloc's economy is weak and will not withstand the European Central Bank's tightening of monetary policy. The EUR/USD rally is not the result of a narrowing divergence in GDP growth between the U.S. and the Eurozone. It is nothing more than a victory of optimists over pessimists. Additionally, it is a result of FOMO, or the fear of missing out on profits. There is a prevailing narrative in the market that a deal between Washington and Tehran will turn winners into losers and losers into winners. Will the euro become the favorite? Then the moment should not be missed!

Unfortunately, the regional currency will not be the winner. All the "bulls" of EUR/USD can hope for are temporary pullbacks to the downward trend. The rally in U.S. Treasury yields also speaks volumes. It is likely that the Federal Reserve will soon raise rates.

Dynamics of Fed Rates and Treasury Yields

Which market is mistaken? The currency market, which paints an optimistic outlook for the euro with its weak Eurozone economy and the danger of political missteps by the ECB in the form of premature tightening of monetary policy? Or the bond market, with its demands for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate? Only time will tell the answer to this question.

For now, it makes sense to wait for the opening of U.S. stock indices to understand what is happening with the global risk appetite. If it rises amid expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, the EUR/USD rally will make sense. If it falls, investor interest will shift back to safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar.

Alas, markets can also make mistakes. Perhaps because they are driven by people. There's a saying that markets have predicted nine recessions out of five. I would not be overly optimistic about the euro's rally ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data.

Technically, on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair has bounced off a local bottom. However, as long as the previous long-bodied bar is not surpassed, "bears" will dominate the market. Therefore, a rebound from resistance levels at $1.1585 and $1.1615 or a return of the euro below $1.1555 will provide grounds for selling.

Particular attention will be paid to the press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Investors will closely analyze her words since the agenda includes the ECB's readiness for further rate hikes at the next meeting in July. Since the June increase is already factored into current quotes and is unlikely to significantly affect them, a hint of tightening policy in July could strengthen the euro. Currently, the market estimates the probability of such a scenario at about 30%.

Market confidence in the rate hike was established back in April amid risks of accelerating inflation. Now, it has become evident that the rise in energy prices is becoming persistent and prolonged, which inevitably affects overall inflation.

The primary issue remains the uncertain economic outlook. The composite PMI index is below the growth zone, primarily due to weakness in the services sector. The manufacturing sector is still above the 50-point mark, mainly due to the fulfillment of orders accumulated before the onset of the conflict. However, the decline in new orders and reduction in employment indicate worsening underlying conditions.

Rising energy prices are reducing real household incomes and suppressing consumer demand. As a result, further declines in the manufacturing PMI index are almost inevitable in the coming months, which in turn will slow GDP growth. There is also a clear decrease in demand for labor, reflected in the slowdown of average wage growth.

The net long position in euros increased by a substantial $2.8 billion over the reporting week, with the calculated price trying to stabilize above the long-term average.

The EUR/USD pair successfully tested the support level at 1.1575, which had been considered the nearest target a week earlier; this move was triggered by a strong U.S. employment report. The anticipated ECB rate hike and the confident rhetoric from members of the Governing Council may support the euro in the short term and prompt a "bullish" pullback. However, the long-term probability of a trend reversal towards growth remains low.

Any significant growth will be limited by the resistance zone of 1.1670/90, where a resumption of selling is likely. A decline below 1.1500 is unlikely, at least until the results of the ECB meeting. However, if inflation data in the U.S. on Wednesday show a significant price increase, the dollar will gain momentum to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair will quickly return to a downward trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair is approaching the key level of 1.3400 against the backdrop of a weakening U.S. dollar; however, fundamental factors suggest a cautious approach before opening positions for further gains.

The statement from the Iranian army regarding the end of attacks on Israel, accompanied by a warning of possible retaliatory actions in the event of new strikes on Lebanon, as well as the confirmation of the cessation of hostilities from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who promised a firm response to future threats, has put pressure on the U.S. dollar. As a result, the American currency retreated from two-month highs, providing moderate support to the GBP/USD pair.

At the same time, ongoing disagreements between the U.S. and Iran over key issues, including the nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, limit improvement in market sentiment. Combined with hawkish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policies, this helps curb the dollar's decline. Currently, the market assesses the probability of a Fed interest rate hike by the end of the year at more than 70% against the backdrop of persistent inflation risks, which supports demand for the dollar and limits the growth potential of GBP/USD.

Additional pressure on the British pound stems from domestic political uncertainty: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position has weakened following the resignation of several junior ministers. This may discourage market participants from actively increasing long positions in the pound.

Under such conditions, it makes sense to wait for a more convincing buying continuation before discussing the formation of a short-term bottom for the GBP/USD pair. The main focus should still be on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the publication of the monthly UK GDP, which could set the further direction of movement.

From a technical perspective, bulls need to overcome all moving averages for complete strength, but initial resistance is at the round level of 1.3400, followed by the 200-day SMA and the 20-day SMA. The pair found support at the round level of 1.3300. Oscillators are negative, confirming weakness in bulls and an advantage for bears in the market.

According to recent data, the U.S. dollar demonstrated the most significant strengthening this week against the Swiss franc.

From a long-term perspective, a wave C formation can be expected, with its low positioned below the low of wave A. At present, it is difficult to believe in such a substantial decline of the euro, but the first quarter of 2026 demonstrated that geopolitical developments can dramatically alter market trends.

On a lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure. Once this structure is complete, the pair may transition into a new upward wave sequence, and at this stage the bearish structure appears complete. Therefore, a rise in the euro can be expected from the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level.

However, without support from geopolitical developments and the ECB, any appreciation of the euro is likely to face significant difficulties.

The EUR/USD pair gained 40 points on Tuesday, responding to a reduction in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Today, markets learned that Israel and Iran, with mediation from Donald Trump, had agreed to cease military operations. The U.S. president also stated that a deal with Iran would be signed within the next two weeks and that the United States would achieve a complete victory over its adversary.

Trump further claimed that Iran is highly interested in reaching an agreement with the United States and is prepared to surrender its nuclear weapons. All that remains is to wait for the next round of denials from Tehran.

It should be remembered that this is far from the first time Donald Trump has promised—or even declared—a complete victory over Iran. Frankly speaking, it remains unclear whether the United States has already achieved victory or is still preparing to do so.

The nuclear issue also remains unclear. Senior Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi and Mojtaba Khamenei, have repeatedly stated that the nuclear issue is not even part of the current negotiations and that Iran's abandonment of uranium enrichment is impossible.

I can assume that Tehran might agree to a nuclear deal similar to the one that existed in 2015. However, no such proposal is currently being offered. Trump is demanding the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran, an end to any future enrichment activities, and the closure of nuclear facilities.

I may be mistaken, but it seems to me that markets have once again received a fresh dose of misinformation from the White House.

It should also be remembered that Trump has already promised approximately twenty times that a peace agreement with Iran would be signed "within the next few days." At times, it resembles a form of neuro-linguistic programming. The impression is that by repeating the same message over and over again, Trump hopes to convince the world—and Iran in particular—that a deal is inevitable.

Whether this strategy will prove successful remains uncertain, but so far it has produced few tangible results. Nevertheless, the market appears to appreciate the U.S. president's optimism.

Today, demand for the U.S. dollar weakened as geopolitical risks declined.

Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within a broader upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a downward trend segment that may already be complete.

In my view, the current environment offers a reasonable opportunity to consider building long positions. The failed attempt to break below 1.1513, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, combined with the completed appearance of the bearish trend segment, suggests that the pair may transition into a new upward wave sequence with targets near the 1.1700 level and above.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the formation of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, wave C is expected to develop with targets around 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Once the A-B-C corrective structure is complete, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Core Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty regarding price direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.