Gold is trading around $4,044, below the 2/8 Murray line and the 21-period simple moving average (SMA), showing a downtrend and trading within a bearish channel that has been forming since July 20.

On the H4 chart, we can see that gold, after hitting a low of $4,020, is rebounding and could continue to rise in the coming days. The Eagle indicator shows a negative signal, so if the price consolidates below the 2/8 Murray level, around $4,062, it could resume its downtrend.

Conversely, if gold trades above $4,062, the outlook could be positive, and the price could reach the upper band of the bullish channel, around $4,086.

Since gold is currently within a bearish channel, it is likely to encounter strong resistance around $4,115 or solid support around $3,980 in the coming days.

We should monitor the 2/8 Murray zone to take long or short positions, as this is a key level for gold.

Bitcoin is trading around $62,788, after rebounding upon finding solid support around the 0/8 Murray level, which also coincided with the lower band of the trend channel formed since July 20.

If Bitcoin rebounds above $62,500 and consolidates above this level, it will be interpreted as a signal to continue buying in the coming days, with targets at the 200-day EMA, around $63,980. Ultimately, we expect it to encounter strong resistance around the upper band of the downtrend channel, at $64,600.

If Bitcoin falls below $62,500, the outlook could turn negative, and BTC could accelerate its decline toward the psychological level of $60,000.

The Eagle indicator has reached five points, representing a strongly oversold condition. This could indicate that, in the coming days, Bitcoin could resume its uptrend, rebound, and reach the 1/8 Murray level, around $65,625, or even reach the July 20 high, around $67,900.

ETH is trading around $1,865, after rebounding from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at around $1,846. The ETH/USD pair is under downward pressure, and if it breaks below the 200-day EMA and consolidates below this level, it could continue to fall in the coming days until it reaches the lower band of the uptrend channel, around $1,795.

On the other hand, if the ETH price rebounds above $1,846, it could reach the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) around $1,900, and ultimately, we expect it to reach the Murray 4/8 level near the psychological threshold of $2,000.

Since the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) represents strong support for Ethereum, this could be interpreted as a positive buy signal for the coming days, with the expectation that it will reach $1,900 and $1,946.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, although it may be approaching oversold levels; therefore, we will look to buy in the coming days before the cryptocurrency's price resumes its downtrend.

The EUR/USD pair remains within the local bearish impulse that has been in place since April 17. Today, the pair reacted to Imbalance 17, as I had been anticipating for quite some time, and resumed its decline. As a result, we saw a strong rally in the euro on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a sharp sell-off on Friday, driven by both the news flow and a technical signal.

As a reminder, on Wednesday evening Kevin Warsh once again highlighted the problem of elevated inflation in the United States but was not sufficiently convincing when explaining the Federal Reserve's next steps. Traders had expected Warsh to deliver either a clear indication of a September rate hike or, at the very least, more hawkish rhetoric that would answer the key question: Is the Federal Reserve prepared to tighten monetary policy this autumn? Instead, Warsh referred to incoming economic data, and, as we all know, the latest U.S. labor market figures were relatively weak. Consequently, Warsh may argue in September that labor market conditions do not justify a rate hike. As a result, the bulls received unexpected support, completed another liquidity sweep, and launched a fresh advance. On Thursday, they were further supported by strong Eurozone economic data and weak U.S. figures. On Friday, however, the single inflation report from the Eurozone triggered a sharp decline in the euro, as the July reading merely met market expectations.

It should be remembered that expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening are merely market expectations and can change as geopolitical conditions evolve. The latest U.S. labor market data was relatively weak, while the inflation report pointed to slower price growth. Consequently, the slowdown in both the labor market and inflation raises doubts about whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Personally, I am not convinced that the Federal Reserve will necessarily begin tightening monetary policy this year, nor that any potential rate increase would be anything more than a one-off move designed to avoid provoking Donald Trump excessively.

Geopolitical developments remain a secondary factor but continue to influence the economy. Tehran and Washington have withdrawn from the June 17 agreement, Donald Trump has reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil and restored the blockade of Iranian shipping, while Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz and is attacking vessels attempting to pass through it outside what it considers the established rules. A month ago, we did not see the U.S. dollar weaken as geopolitical tensions eased, nor did we see the euro strengthen following the ECB's monetary tightening one and a half months ago. The bears remain in control despite the broader fundamental and geopolitical backdrop. In my opinion, deteriorating relations between Iran and the United States alone are no longer sufficient to trigger another sustained bearish move.

The current technical picture continues to indicate that the bearish impulse that began on April 17 remains intact. Bearish Imbalance 17 was fully tested yesterday and today, generating a sell signal. The question now is how deep the euro's decline will become. Yesterday, a new Bullish Imbalance 19 formed, giving the bulls renewed reason for optimism. Therefore, the decline may continue until this pattern is reached, where a new buy signal could emerge and allow the bullish advance to resume.

Friday's economic releases were significant and were the primary driver behind the euro's decline. Germany's inflation report had led market participants to expect a stronger-than-forecast inflation reading for the Eurozone as a whole. In reality, however, Eurozone inflation increased by only 0.1 percentage points, matching market expectations. As a result, the European Central Bank may decide to extend its pause in monetary policy tightening at its September meeting.

The bulls still have plenty of reasons to remain optimistic in 2026, and even the conflict in the Middle East has not significantly altered that broader outlook. Structurally and fundamentally, Donald Trump's policies—which contributed to the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar last year—have not changed. At present, I do not see any major long-term support factors for the U.S. dollar despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Nevertheless, it is still the bears who remain on the offensive, while no bullish technical signals have yet emerged.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

Germany

• Retail Sales (06:00 UTC)

United States

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for August 3 contains two scheduled releases, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI standing out as the most important. As a result, the economic backdrop is likely to influence market sentiment mainly during the second half of Monday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

In my opinion, the pair remains in the process of forming a broader bullish trend. Although the fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears five months ago, the longer-term trend cannot yet be considered cancelled or complete. Therefore, the bulls may launch another advance after the two recent liquidity sweeps below key swing lows.

At present, Bearish Imbalance 17 continues to provide a valid sell signal. Therefore, the euro may continue declining next week with Bullish Imbalance 19 serving as the downward target. Once the price reaches Imbalance 19, a new buy signal may emerge, allowing traders to consider long positions with targets above 1.1620.

The GBP/USD pair has posted a fairly noticeable decline over the past two weeks, followed by a strong rally over the last two trading sessions. This suggests that the bulls have launched a new offensive, which was then followed by a normal corrective pullback.

Yesterday, Bearish Imbalance 24 was broken without triggering any price reaction. As a result, it can now be regarded as an inverted imbalance. A reaction to this pattern may now occur from above, implying a bullish response. I would like to remind traders that positions should be opened only after the market reacts to a pattern or an area of interest and that this reaction is confirmed on lower timeframes—not simply when the price reaches the pattern itself. Therefore, just as no reaction may occur at a regular imbalance, no reaction may occur at an inverted imbalance either. However, at the moment, such a reaction remains possible. In addition, another Bullish Imbalance 25 has formed below the current price. This gives the bulls two areas of interest where buying opportunities may emerge.

As for the trend, in my view, it remains bullish, while no bearish patterns are currently present. The euro came under pressure today following weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation data and may have dragged the British pound lower as well. Moreover, after two consecutive days of strong gains, a corrective pullback appears entirely natural.

Last week, oil prices climbed to $100 per barrel, and the consequences of a new escalation in the Middle East, combined with a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, could push prices as high as $120 per barrel. If events continue to unfold according to the most pessimistic scenario—which currently appears increasingly likely—oil prices may continue rising and surpass the highs recorded between March and May. In that case, inflation in both the United States and the United Kingdom could begin accelerating again. If, however, the situation develops according to the more optimistic scenario, oil prices could return to the $60–70 per barrel range. Under those circumstances, the Federal Reserve might not need to tighten monetary policy further, while the Bank of England is already no longer facing the problem of persistently high inflation. As a result, the U.S. dollar currently cannot rely on a hawkish Federal Reserve for sustained support, while the British pound could receive support from the Bank of England only if inflation begins accelerating again.

Chart analysis continues to point to renewed bullish pressure. At present, traders have two bullish imbalances (24 and 25) where long positions may be considered. There are currently no bearish patterns. Therefore, a new buy signal could emerge as early as today or on Monday, allowing the bulls to extend their advance next week, as a new bullish trend may have begun on June 25.

The economic calendar was empty in both the United Kingdom and the United States on Friday. Nevertheless, GBP/USD still entered a corrective pullback, which was entirely justified from a technical perspective.

The broader fundamental backdrop remains such that, over the long term, I continue to expect nothing other than further weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States has not changed that outlook. Nor has the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded the market of the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status, but the conflict has already passed its most active phase. The Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates in 2026, which is supportive for the dollar. However, it should not be overlooked that tighter monetary policy would slow both economic growth and the labor market. In addition, Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump to lead the FOMC with the goal of shifting monetary policy toward easing—something that, in Trump's view, Jerome Powell was unwilling to deliver. Therefore, in my opinion, any appreciation of the U.S. dollar is likely to be temporary and driven by short-term factors.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

United States:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for August 3 contains only one event that can be considered significant. As a result, the economic backdrop is expected to influence market sentiment primarily during the second half of Monday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

The long-term outlook for the British pound remains bullish. After liquidity was swept below the two most recent swing lows, the bulls launched an advance, followed by a corrective pullback, another bullish push, and then another correction. Next week, I will be looking for a new buy signal within one of the two bullish imbalance zones. Areas of interest for purchases: 1.3310 – 1.3333 and 1.3393 – 1.3414.

If the bears begin a new offensive, bearish chart patterns will be required to justify short positions. At the moment, no such patterns are present.

While the cryptocurrency market is trying to determine whether it is ready to continue moving higher, IBM has announced what it calls a demonstration of "trusted quantum advantage." The company stated that its quantum computer completed a computation that is beyond the reach of the best classical simulation methods while simultaneously providing statistical evidence confirming the accuracy of the result.

The work, conducted in collaboration with researchers from the University of Chicago, marks another milestone in IBM's efforts to build fault-tolerant quantum computers. IBM Research Director Jay Gambetta described the achievement as the beginning of a new phase in the development of quantum technology:

"We are now firmly in the era of quantum advantage. This milestone provides scientists, developers, and businesses with a new foundation for trusting quantum computers as they scale to problems that go far beyond what can be achieved using classical methods."

According to the interview, the experiment executed 2,415 logical two-qubit operations and 468 logical T-gates, reducing the logical error rate to approximately one-tenth of the underlying physical error rate. The experiment also addressed the long-standing verification challenge that has characterized previous demonstrations of quantum advantage.

Despite its impressive technical significance, the experiment does not alter Bitcoin's short-term security outlook. However, it adds another building block to the growing body of research aimed at overcoming one of the principal challenges of quantum computing—reliable error correction as systems scale to larger sizes. As a result, it brings closer the point at which such systems could theoretically pose a threat to the cryptography underlying Bitcoin and other blockchain networks.

What is particularly noteworthy is that, alongside advances in the quantum computing industry, the defensive side of the cryptocurrency industry is also evolving. IBM's progress fits well into the broader context established by the launch of the Bitcoin Security Consortium, which brings together BlackRock, Coinbase, Strategy, Fidelity Digital Assets, and other major institutional Bitcoin holders. The consortium has explicitly identified preparation for a potential era of quantum computing as one of its key long-term funding priorities, emphasizing that large-scale quantum computers capable of compromising Bitcoin's cryptography do not yet exist and, according to leading expert assessments, remain years away. IBM's demonstration does not dramatically accelerate that timeline, but it confirms that both the quantum computing community and the cryptocurrency security community take the potential threat seriously and are working on solutions well in advance.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and trading conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if the price reaches the entry point around $64,000, targeting a rise to $64,400. Around $64,400, I will close my long positions and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary of $63,700 if there is no bearish reaction after a breakout below this level, targeting a recovery toward $64,000 and $64,400.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if the price reaches the entry point around $63,700, targeting a decline to $63,000. Around $63,000, I will close my short positions and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of $64,000 if there is no bullish reaction after a breakout above this level, targeting a move toward $63,700 and $63,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry point around $1,887, targeting a rise to $1,900. Around $1,900, I will close my long positions and immediately sell on a rebound. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of $1,876 if there is no bearish reaction after a breakout below this level, targeting a recovery toward $1,887 and $1,900.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry point around $1,876, targeting a decline to $1,854. Around $1,854, I will close my short positions and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary of $1,887 if there is no bullish reaction after a breakout above this level, targeting a move toward $1,876 and $1,854.

The test of the 1.1517 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. A second test of 1.1517 allowed Sell Scenario #2 to play out, resulting in a decline toward 1.1499.

The euro is approaching month-end with its focus on upcoming U.S. economic data, namely the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Consumer sentiment serves as a barometer of households' willingness to spend, while inflation expectations shape the market's outlook for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. If both indicators come in stronger than expected, risk appetite could deteriorate and demand for the U.S. dollar could return, putting additional pressure on the single currency. Profit-taking is another factor weighing on the euro. After the strong rally seen over recent sessions, the EUR/USD pair has built up conditions for a pullback, as market participants often partially close profitable positions at the end of the month. Combined with a potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar, this could interrupt the euro's bullish momentum. Therefore, further price action will depend both on the incoming data and on the market's willingness to maintain its recent gains.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches 1.1506 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1531. At 1.1531, I plan to exit long positions and also open short positions, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. The euro is likely to strengthen today if the U.S. data comes in weaker than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1485 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1506 and 1.1531 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1485 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1463, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the U.S. data comes in stronger than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1506 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1485 and 1.1463 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making market entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports in order to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with excessively large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3452 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move higher from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. However, the pair failed to generate a significant upward move.

The direction of the pound during the U.S. session will be determined by upcoming U.S. economic data, namely the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations, as the British currency currently lacks significant domestic catalysts. The Consumer Sentiment Index reflects consumers' confidence in the economy, while inflation expectations indicate how households view future price growth. Both indicators have the potential to significantly influence market sentiment. Strong readings could restore demand for the U.S. dollar and trigger its strengthening at month-end. Under such conditions, the pound will become increasingly dependent on external factors. In addition to the risk of a stronger U.S. dollar, profit-taking may also weigh on the currency, as GBP/USD appears vulnerable to a pullback following its strong rally in recent sessions. Traders often reduce long positions at the end of the month, and such a correction could put additional pressure on the British pound. As a result, its near-term direction will largely depend on the performance of the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry point around 1.3447 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3484 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3484, I plan to close my long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level. A stronger pound today can only be expected if the U.S. data comes in weaker than expected.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3424 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3447 and 1.3484 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3424 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3395, where I plan to close my short positions and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pound is likely to return if the U.S. economic data comes in stronger than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3447 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3424 and 1.3395 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making market entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with excessively large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The first test of the 163.68 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. The second test of 163.68 coincided with the MACD entering the oversold area, allowing Sell Scenario #2 to play out and resulting in a decline in the U.S. dollar.

The Japanese yen strengthened once again following another currency intervention by the Bank of Japan. However, even this sharp decline in the pair toward the 159.00 level was quickly bought back, helping to maintain market equilibrium. Ahead, the market is awaiting the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the U.S. inflation expectations reading. Consumer sentiment reflects households' willingness to spend, while inflation expectations are closely monitored by the Federal Reserve when assessing future inflationary pressures. Strong readings could weaken risk appetite and trigger a stronger U.S. dollar at month-end.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches the entry point around 160.24 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 161.03 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 161.03, I plan to close my long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level. A further rise in the pair is possible today, although the upside is expected to be limited.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.87 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 160.24 and 161.03 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 159.87 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.03, where I plan to close my short positions and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return today if the Bank of Japan intervenes.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 160.24 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 159.87 and 159.03 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further upside beyond this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected Take Profit level, or the level where profits can be taken manually, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making market entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with excessively large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Today, KOSPI surged by as much as 17% intraday, bouncing after a three-day sell-off, and a global tech rally gained momentum as investors returned to AI trades after this week's rout. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics each jumped by more than 23%, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing added 10%, and chipmakers were the largest drivers of gains in the MSCI Asia Pacific index. The Asian semiconductor index rose by 12%, on track for a record single-day gain.

Asian strength followed the largest rally in US chip stocks in over a year. Nasdaq 100 futures signaled further upside after the tech index broke a six-day losing streak, surging by more than 3% on Thursday. Futures were up roughly 1.1% today. S&P 500 futures also showed notable strength.

Earnings added a mixed tone to the market. Amazon jumped by 9.5% in after-hours trading on strong results, while Apple plunged by more than 6% after supply constraints worsened its sales outlook.

The chip rebound gave investors a respite after this week's sell-off, which was driven by concerns that massive AI capex may not generate commensurate returns. With the Fed decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh behind us, investor focus shifts to whether the recovery can hold after a mixed set of mega-cap reports.

FX and fixed-income markets also shifted. The yen weakened, giving back part of the intervention-driven gain after the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. The currency retraced some of Thursday's largest one-day advance since 2024, which followed another round of Japanese FX intervention. The dollar index rose by 0.2%, snapping a five-day losing streak. The 30-year Treasury yield fell by two basis points on Friday to 5.19%, retreating from multi-year highs hit earlier in the week amid Fed-induced inflation concerns.

As for commodities, gold traded near $4,100/oz, while oil eased by 2% to roughly $87.30/bbl.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,495. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,518. Controlling $7,544 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,474. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,451 and open the way to $7,427.

Stock index dynamics

The positive move was not universal. Meta Platforms plunged by 8% after warning that free cash flow would turn negative for the first time since its 2012 IPO — the company's eleventh consecutive down day, a record losing streak. The split reaction to Microsoft and Meta exposes the key question for trading the AI theme: can companies that pour hundreds of billions into AI deliver commensurate returns?

Wells Fargo sees US equities' outlook as constructive on the back of strong earnings, continued AI adoption, and a resilient economy. According to the bank, the recent weakness is more like an overheated market's reset than a breakdown of the primary trend. UBS shares that view but advises investors to manage concentration risk and increase exposure to defence-oriented technology stories.

Microsoft and Meta Platforms performance

Retail traders have started to take profits. JPMorgan reports that outflows from technology ETFs were the second largest on record, and Vanda Research recorded the largest sequence of single-stock sales since 2020. Wall Street's reading is that the crowd is not exiting the market — it's becoming more selective. The problem will arise if institutions follow suit, but there is no sign of that yet.

Thursday's rally trimmed the semiconductor sector's July decline to 21%, yet it remains the largest monthly drop since 2008. Insatiable demand for AI continues to coexist with high volatility — lofty expectations leave little room for disappointment.

This rebound is, at base, an earnings story rather than a macro shift. The question is whether the banks' view of a healthy reset or the traders' profit-taking narrative will prevail.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 formed a false-break reversal (a bear-trap) after a false downside breakout below the previously formed consolidation range of 7,375–7,450. A break above the resistance level of 7,450 would be a technical trigger to build long positions, targeting a move toward at least fair value near 7,540.

The yen strengthened sharply against the U.S. dollar following another round of currency intervention by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, the euro and the pound edged lower amid broad profit-taking at the end of the month.

Ahead, the market is awaiting the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, along with the inflation expectations reading. The index reflects Americans' confidence in the economy and their personal finances, while inflation expectations indicate how consumers expect prices to rise in the future—a component the Federal Reserve monitors particularly closely. Strong consumer sentiment combined with rising inflation expectations could reinforce the case for the Fed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy and trigger U.S. dollar strength at month-end. This would increase the risk of further declines in the euro and the pound. A potential recovery in the U.S. dollar could put pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, especially as both European currencies have rallied strongly in recent sessions and may now be vulnerable to profit-taking. Investors often close part of their long positions at the end of the month, and such a technical correction could add pressure on the euro and the pound even without a significant shift in the fundamental backdrop.

If the data comes in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• A break above 1.1507 may push the euro toward 1.1536 and 1.1557;
• A break below 1.1482 may send the euro down toward 1.1460 and 1.1436;

For GBP/USD

• A break above 1.3451 may drive the pound toward 1.3471 and 1.3510;
• A break below 1.3421 may send the pound down toward 1.3395 and 1.3365;

For USD/JPY

• A break above 160.24 may push the U.S. dollar toward 160.48 and 160.76;
• A break below 159.80 may trigger a decline in the U.S. dollar toward 159.60 and 159.30;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.1513 followed by a move back below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.1485 followed by a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3455 followed by a move back below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3415 followed by a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 0.7044 followed by a move back below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 0.7020 followed by a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.4030 followed by a move back below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.4005 followed by a return above this level;

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The wave structure remains bearish. The most recently completed upward wave failed to break above the previous high, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. As a result, bears have taken control of the market, although they may lose that advantage in the near term. In my view, the bearish impulse that has dominated since the beginning of 2026 is nearing completion, and only geopolitical developments could prevent bulls from extending their advance.

Thursday's news flow was mixed, but it ultimately favored the bulls. A day earlier, the market interpreted the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting as negative for the U.S. dollar and began to question the likelihood of monetary policy tightening in September. Yesterday, however, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) adopted a more hawkish tone than traders had expected and made it clear that it anticipates higher inflation that will require a policy response. As a result, the Bank of England effectively signaled that an interest rate hike in the second half of the year remains a highly likely scenario—something neither the FOMC nor Kevin Warsh was prepared to indicate. Additional pressure on the U.S. dollar came from the PCE inflation and GDP reports. U.S. GDP expanded by only 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, well below the 2.1% expected by the market, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by just 0.1% in June, compared with the 0.2% forecast. These figures indicate that underlying inflation remains relatively subdued, while the U.S. economy has recorded modest growth over the past three quarters. It is also worth noting that the U.S. labor market has delivered underwhelming results over the past three months. Taken together, these factors further undermine expectations of Federal Reserve policy tightening this autumn, forcing the U.S. dollar to retreat.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has advanced to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3467. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and could trigger a decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. A consolidation above the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level would support further gains toward the next 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. No developing divergences are currently visible on any of the technical indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among the Non-commercial group became less bearish during the latest reporting week, although it remains negative overall. Speculators increased their long positions by 13,197 contracts while reducing their short positions by 2,495. Non-commercial traders currently hold approximately 64,000 long positions versus 119,000 short positions. The gap between long and short positions continues to narrow, reducing the bears' advantage. While bearish dominance previously appeared unquestionable, the changing fundamental backdrop now calls that outlook into question.

I still do not expect a sustained bearish trend for the British pound. However, in the near term, market direction will depend less on economic data, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy than on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, markets had become increasingly optimistic about the prospects for peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before making meaningful progress. There is no guarantee that talks will resume in the near future.

Economic Calendar

There are no scheduled economic releases for either the United States or the United Kingdom on July 31. As a result, economic data are unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Short positions may be considered if the pair rebounds from the 1.3454–1.3458 resistance level on the hourly chart, with downward targets at 1.3397 and 1.3348. Long positions became valid after the pair consolidated above 1.3348, with targets at 1.3397 and 1.3458. Both targets have been reached. New long positions may be considered if the pair closes above the 1.3454–1.3458 resistance level, with upward targets at 1.3526–1.3557.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has turned bullish. Although the most recently completed downward wave broke below the previous low, the latest upward wave also surpassed the previous high. The geopolitical situation remains tense as Iran and the United States continue their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while negotiations are currently not taking place. Traders had been expecting support from the Federal Reserve for about a month, but those expectations were not met following Wednesday's meeting. After a prolonged pause, bulls have regained the initiative.

Thursday's news flow once again favored the euro, although it should be viewed together with Wednesday's developments. During the morning session, traders continued to digest the outcome of the FOMC meeting, which remained open to different interpretations. This time, however, the market viewed the outcome as insufficiently hawkish. Kevin Warsh continued to avoid giving a clear signal, leaving markets unconvinced that further monetary tightening was inevitable. On the contrary, his remarks allowed investors to question whether the Federal Reserve still viewed higher interest rates as the primary tool for combating inflation. Once the market had fully priced in the FOMC meeting, a series of economic releases further supported the euro. The eurozone reported stronger-than-expected GDP growth, Germany also posted solid GDP figures, U.S. GDP came in below forecasts, German inflation exceeded market expectations, while the eurozone unemployment rate remained unchanged. Four of these five reports supported the bullish outlook. As a result, the euro recorded strong gains over the course of just 24 hours, allowing bulls to regain control of the market.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, suggesting not merely a bullish rebound but the potential beginning of a sustained upward trend. Consolidation above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514 supports the case for further gains toward 1.1578. No developing divergences are currently visible on any of the technical indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 9,842 long positions and opened 18,891 short positions. Over the seven weeks spanning February and March, bulls lost their overwhelming advantage as a result of the conflict involving Iran. During the past seventeen weeks, however, positioning has become more balanced amid the temporary ceasefire and market hopes for an end to the conflict. Non-commercial traders currently hold 220,000 long positions and 261,000 short positions. Bears have once again regained the upper hand.

Despite this, over the longer term, large institutional investors continue to show considerable interest in the euro. Recent years have demonstrated that global events of various kinds continue to shape investor sentiment. At present, market participants remain focused on developments in the Middle East, where the conflict repeatedly escalates after periods of relative calm. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and later paid little attention to the renewed hostilities. As a result, geopolitical developments are no longer the sole factor determining the direction of the U.S. dollar.

Economic Calendar

Germany

• Unemployment Rate (07:55 UTC)

Eurozone

• Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for July 31 includes two scheduled releases, with the eurozone inflation report being the key event. Economic data may once again have a significant impact on market sentiment on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Long positions became valid after the rebound from 1.1438 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1472 and 1.1507. Both targets have been reached. Today, long positions may be maintained with upward targets at 1.1551 and 1.1620. Short positions may be considered if the pair consolidates below 1.1507 on the hourly chart, with downward targets at 1.1472 and 1.1438.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a multi-week sideways range and remains vulnerable after failing to consolidate above the psychologically significant $4,100 level.

From a technical perspective, the price action observed over the past month can be classified as a bearish consolidation phase, particularly following the break below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, momentum indicators continue to send mixed signals, warranting caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below the 50 mark, indicating only a modest recovery attempt within the broader downtrend. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains close to the neutral level.

The nearest major resistance is located at the upper boundary of the trading range around $4,175. A breakout above this level, followed by consolidation above $4,200, could pave the way for a test of the 200-day SMA at $4,500. Bulls need to overcome this barrier to neutralize the prevailing bearish bias and initiate a sustained recovery. The nearest support is located in the $3,960–$4,000 level, where strong buying interest previously emerged.

Nevertheless, the precious metal remains under selling pressure.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains within its monthly trading range and continues to look vulnerable after failing to consolidate above the psychologically significant $4,100 level.

Inflation risks, driven by heightened volatility in the oil market, strengthen the case for further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. This scenario favors the U.S. dollar, which is recovering after falling to its lowest level since June yesterday, while weighing on gold.U.S. macroeconomic data released on Thursday pointed to slowing economic growth and signs of easing inflation, temporarily reducing expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike and triggering an overnight decline in the U.S. dollar. In particular, the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that U.S. second-quarter GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5%, down from 2.1% in the previous quarter and below market expectations.

In addition, the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index declined by 0.1% in June, marking its first monthly decrease since April 2020. The decline was largely driven by a temporary easing of tensions with Iran, which led to a correction in fuel prices. On an annual basis, the index slowed from 4.1% to 3.7%, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index—the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation—rose by 0.1% month over month, compared with 0.3% in May, while the annual rate eased from 3.4% to 3.3%.

Nevertheless, turbulence in the oil market, fueled by the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran and concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies, suggests that inflation risks remain elevated. In recent days, the U.S. military announced the completion of a series of major strikes on Iranian targets in response to Tehran's missile attacks against coalition forces in the region. At the same time, Iran rejected Oman's proposal for joint (50/50) administration of the Strait of Hormuz, which would have granted Tehran partial control over the strategically important waterway and the right to collect voluntary transit fees.

The situation has been further complicated by Saudi Arabia's efforts to establish an international coalition to protect key shipping routes in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden from attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement. These developments increase the likelihood of a broader regional conflict, supporting the geopolitical risk premium and crude oil prices.

Investors are concerned that rising energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in more than an 85% probability of at least one additional rate hike before the end of the year.

Against the backdrop of elevated U.S. Treasury yields, the outlook for the U.S. dollar remains more favorable, encouraging capital outflows from the precious metal.

Today, traders should pay close attention to the upcoming University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, which could provide fresh trading opportunities.

For now, XAU/USD continues to trade within a multi-week sideways range as market participants await a new catalyst to trigger the next directional move.

From a technical perspective, gold remains under pressure, with the nearest resistance located around the psychological $4,100 level, while the key support is at the $4,000 level. At the same time, oscillators remain neutral, indicating continued sideways trading.

The main reason for the rise was Japan's intervention in the currency market to support the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate decision, which weakened the dollar by almost 1% against a basket of currencies. The dollar index modestly recovered on Friday, adding 0.2%. The weakening dollar made dollar-denominated gold cheaper for most buyers worldwide. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented on the yen situation in an interview, stating that the Japanese currency is significantly undervalued and added that he considers excessive volatility an unhealthy phenomenon.

Additionally, broad support for the metal this week stemmed from the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged amid inflationary pressures from the war in the Middle East. However, the 9-3 vote was far from unanimous and revealed a strong conviction among some American regulators that higher borrowing costs will ultimately be needed to achieve the 2% inflation target.

The scale of the metal's decline since the beginning of the conflict remains a significant reminder of the depth of the correction. Since the start of the US-Iran war over five months ago, gold has lost more than a fifth of its value, as high energy prices have intensified inflationary pressures and increased the likelihood that rates will remain elevated for longer, which has been a headwind for non-yielding precious metals. Nevertheless, buying waves during dips have helped keep the metal above the key $4,000 level in recent weeks.

The geopolitical backdrop remains tense and continues to add uncertainty. The US and Iran exchanged strikes again this week: Washington hit dozens of targets in Iran on Wednesday in response to attacks on American military bases in the region.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,124. This would allow targeting $4,186, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The furthest target will be around $4,249. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control below $4,062. If successful, breaking through this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,008 with the potential to reach $3,954.

In light of the ongoing exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz appears to have picked up in recent days, providing a rare positive signal amid the overall escalation. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia discussed with representatives from 43 countries the formation of an alliance to protect shipping in the Red Sea and its surroundings, hoping to counter the blockade imposed by Iranian-backed Houthi forces against the kingdom last week.

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi stated in a televised address on Thursday that there are signs Saudi Arabia is moving towards a comprehensive escalation and warned that this would be met with a more intense campaign. In addition to strikes on tankers, the group recently claimed responsibility for attacks on oil facilities.

Regarding the month's outcomes, energy markets soared in July at double-digit rates, affecting not just oil but also derivative products like diesel. During this month, the fragile pause in hostilities between Washington and Tehran collapsed, with Yemeni Houthis entering the conflict, and Saudi forces joining the US in strikes against Iran-related groups in Iraq.

Experts note that, apart from the Middle East, there are concerns about supply disruptions in the Black Sea. Loading at the terminal, crucial for Kazakhstan's oil exports, was halted again this week after new attacks on tankers. In just this month, nine vessels have been attacked while en route to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium facility.

The International Monetary Fund continues to see the risk that a Middle Eastern oil shock could trigger a global economic recession. However, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that the impact would be moderate if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen soon.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $83.56. This will allow them to target $86.67, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The furthest target will be the area around $89.54. In the event of a price drop, bears will attempt to take control below $80.50. If they succeed, breaking through this range would deal a severe blow to bullish positions and could push oil down to a low of $78.70 with the potential to reach $76.30.

Meanwhile, according to recent data, the total reserves of Bitcoin held by publicly traded American companies reached 1,240,000 coins, accounting for nearly 93% of the digital asset's total corporate supply worldwide. According to the BitcoinMiningStock.io tracker, 1,239,968 BTC were recorded in the balances of public companies as of mid-June, confirming the scale of capital concentration in the American jurisdiction. At the same time, other countries, including Japan (with Metaplanet) and other markets, account for the remaining 7%.

Over the past year, these companies have purchased an additional 510,000 BTC, which is more than three times the amount mined by miners during the same period. This level of imbalance indicates a systemic disparity between supply and demand in the market. Each new coin entering circulation through mining is immediately absorbed by corporate demand, resulting in a threefold excess, meaning that the real deficit of freely circulating coins is growing faster than nominal issuance indicates. This directly correlates with earlier observations that public companies accumulated more than twice as much Bitcoin in the first quarter than miners produced, and the proportion of deficit has only increased over the year.

The scale of corporate Bitcoin absorption should be considered alongside the previously described JPMorgan phenomenon of miner capitulation, declining hash rates, and declining mining difficulty. If miners produce fewer new coins due to economic pressures, while corporate demand continues to grow at a pace three times greater than issuance, the structural deficit of available supply will only deepen, irrespective of short-term price fluctuations. This creates a kind of paradox in the current cycle: the market is experiencing one of the softest bear periods in Bitcoin's history because an increasing share of supply is being physically removed from circulation by corporate holders, rather than due to high speculative demand from retail and institutional traders.

All this is positive for Bitcoin and its future growth prospects towards new record highs.

As for the short-term trading strategy, the plan and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $64,500 with a target rise to $65,100. I plan to exit my buy positions at around $65,100 and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also be done from the lower boundary of $64,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, aiming for levels $64,500 and $65,100.

Selling Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after the level of $64,200 is reached with a target drop to $63,600. I plan to exit the sell positions around $63,600 and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can also be done from the upper boundary of $64,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting $64,200 and $63,600.

Ethereum

Buying Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,911 with a target rise to $1,943. I plan to exit my buy positions at around $1,943 and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also be done from the lower boundary of $1,893 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting $1,911 and $1,943.

Selling Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,893 with a target drop to $1,866. I plan to exit the sell positions at around $1,866 and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can also be done from the upper boundary of $1,911 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting $1,893 and $1,866.

The price test at 162.65 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming it as a valid entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 100 pips.

The Japanese yen reacted with strength to the Bank of Japan's decision to keep its political stance unchanged, indicating less caution regarding economic growth and showing confidence that the economy continues on the path of further policy normalization. However, the central bank also conducted a currency intervention to strengthen the yen, which has been a topic of discussion lately, leading to the pair's decline from the level of 163 to 158. The central bank continued to highlight the risk of core inflation exceeding the 2% target and promised to continue raising borrowing costs in response to economic and price trends. This rhetoric serves as an indicator of the BoJ's readiness for further normalization steps if inflationary pressures increase, which is positive for the yen and negative for the US dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 160.87 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 161.46 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 161.46, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant retracements in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 160.57 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 160.87 and 161.46 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 160.57 is refreshed (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 159.83, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; all it takes is a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decrease from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 160.87 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 160.57 and 159.83 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the zones of overbought and oversold.

Important: New traders in the Forex market should make decisions about market entry very cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3398 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming it as a valid entry point for buying the pound and leading to a rise in the pair to the target level of 1.3430.

Weak American reports weakened the dollar yesterday and renewed interest in higher-yielding assets, including the British pound. The US economy grew by only 1.5% year-on-year in the second quarter. The slowdown in growth, coupled with cooling inflation, diminished arguments in favor of a hawkish Federal Reserve policy, as the weaker the economy and price pressures, the fewer reasons the central bank has to keep rates high. The British pound capitalized on the dollar's weakness and gained against it.

Today, data on the UK Nationwide housing price index is expected, as well as a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. These events could affect the dynamics of the British pound, potentially creating favorable conditions for building new long positions in the pair. The British real estate market is traditionally an important barometer of economic activity. The housing price index published today by Nationwide will provide relevant information on the state of the housing sector.

However, the focus is on Pill's speech. His comments on inflation expectations, growth prospects, and, most importantly, possible further steps regarding tightening monetary policy could lead to significant volatility.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy pounds today when the entry point reaches around 1.3452 (the green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3484 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3484, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from that level. Growth in the pound today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy on pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3431 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3452 and 1.3484 can be anticipated.

Selling Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3431 level is refreshed (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3408, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3452 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3431 and 1.3408 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the zones of overbought and oversold.

Important: New traders in the Forex market should make decisions about market entry very cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1487 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming it as a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1529.

The slowdown in the US economy set the tone for yesterday's trading, extending the dollar's decline. The gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew by only 1.5% year-on-year for the second quarter after a preliminary estimate of 2.1%, and the core personal consumption expenditure index increased by just 0.1% in June compared to 0.3% in May. Both indicators are significant as they together paint a picture of cooling in the economy and inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious stance, which deprived the dollar of support. The euro capitalized on this weakness. Slowing growth and inflation in the US heightened expectations for a softer policy stance, lowered yields on US bonds, and increased the euro's appeal, driving the EUR/USD pair higher.

Today, unemployment data for Germany and the Eurozone consumer price index are expected in the first half of the day. The unemployment rate in Germany always attracts significant attention. It is expected that the figure will remain stable or even show a slight decrease. If the data comes in better than expected, it will be a strong signal for the market, confirming the resilience of the German economy.

Inflation in the Eurozone also remains one of the key drivers of the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Positive data from the consumer price index, indicating moderate inflation growth, could strengthen the euro's position, hinting at a tighter future policy stance from the ECB. The combination of these factors will create a favorable environment for the euro's appreciation. Positive economic signals could not only halt the current Asian correction but also act as a catalyst for a new upward trend.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1517 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to 1.1545. At 1.1545, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect euro growth only after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1501 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal in the market. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1517 and 1.1545 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1501 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1474, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if poor data are released. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decrease from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1517 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1501 and 1.1474 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the zones of overbought and oversold.

Important: New traders in the Forex market should make decisions about market entry very cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Yesterday's reports from the US indicated a slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter. The gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased by only 1.5% year-on-year for the three months ending in June, while the core personal consumption expenditures index rose by just 0.1% in June compared to 0.3% the previous month. Although GDP reflects the economy's growth rate and is one of the main indicators of its health, the slowdown signaled to the market that the previous momentum was weakening. The core PCE index, which the Federal Reserve considers its preferred measure of inflation, also played a significant role. Its deceleration heightened expectations for a softer monetary policy from the regulator, as cooling prices reduce the need to keep rates high, which undermined the attractiveness of the dollar. As a result, the US currency lost ground against most competitors.

For the euro and the pound, this backdrop proved to be a tailwind. The weakening dollar narrowed its advantage, allowing both European currencies to strengthen, while EUR/USD and GBP/USD continued their ascent. The scale of their rise depended on how deeply the market revised its expectations for the Fed's rate after the data release.

This morning's session promises to be rich in financial news that could significantly influence the dynamics of the European currency. Traders' attention will be focused on the release of Germany's unemployment data and the Eurozone's consumer price index. These macroeconomic indicators are traditionally barometers of the state of the largest economy in Europe and the entire currency bloc, so their interpretation will be particularly important.

The unemployment rate in Germany, a key indicator of economic activity, is expected to remain stable or even decline slightly. Positive signals in this segment could demonstrate the resilience of the German labor market despite current global challenges. This, in turn, would strengthen investors' confidence in the European economy and increase demand for the euro.

No less important will be the report on the Eurozone consumer price index. The expected inflation level, even if it remains moderate, will be closely scrutinized by the European Central Bank as it shapes future monetary policy. Steady or rising inflation could signal the need for more stringent measures by the ECB, which generally favors currency strengthening.

As for the pound, traders will focus on Nationwide's housing price index. This indicator is one of the key barometers of the real estate market and can significantly impact expectations regarding future economic activity. High price growth may indicate sustained consumer demand and market confidence, which, in turn, could prompt the central bank to adopt a more stringent monetary policy.

An equally significant event will be the speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. His statements could reveal new nuances regarding the committee member's views on the current economic situation and the future direction of monetary policy. It is especially important to listen to his comments about inflation risks and growth prospects.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' expectations, the best approach is to use a Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout of 1.1530, targeting 1.1557 and 1.1592.
• Sell on a breakout of 1.1501, targeting 1.1482 and 1.1460.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout of 1.3451, targeting 1.3478 and 1.3509.
• Sell on a breakout of 1.3421, targeting 1.3397 and 1.3368.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout of 160.91, targeting 161.10 and 161.33.
• Sell on a breakout of 160.60, targeting 160.43 and 160.24.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1527 when returning below this level.
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1499 when returning to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3459 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3425 when returning to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7040 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.7020 when returning to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.4027 when returning below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3999 when returning to this level.

Crude oil is trading around $80.92, above the 200 EMA, and rebounding after reaching the psychological level of $80; if the price remains above this zone in the coming hours, it is likely to continue rising.

Crude oil encountered strong resistance around $85. Technically, crude oil is under bearish pressure, and if it falls below $80.00, we could expect the downtrend to continue in the coming days until it reaches the 4/8 Murray level around $75.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, so we believe crude oil will continue to rise in the coming days. To take long positions, we should closely monitor whether the price consolidates above the 200 EMA or above the 5/8 Murray level.

Looking at the chart, we can see that crude oil left a gap on July 23 around $90. Therefore, as long as the price per barrel of crude oil remains above $81.25, we could expect it to return to these price levels in the coming days.