The GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher on Tuesday despite the lack of significant geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fundamental events. Secondary reports from Germany and the U.S. failed to prompt a rise in the pair, partly because they were not particularly positive for the euro and the pound. The only notable fundamental event is the upcoming European Central Bank meeting, but its outcome is already known and was anticipated last week. The ECB is expected to raise rates, which should support the euro and possibly even the British pound, which generally correlates with it. However, instead, we saw a decline in the GBP/USD pair.

We do not believe that the market should have ignored the Nonfarm Payrolls report. This is indeed an important report that gave the Federal Reserve the opportunity to move towards tightening monetary policy very soon. Previously, the weakness in the U.S. labor market held the Fed back from raising the key rate. While it was not the only reason, it was one of the main reasons. Last year, amid a weakening labor market, the Fed was even forced to cut the key rate three times. Although the market does not believe the Fed will tighten monetary policy this summer, that does not mean such a scenario is completely excluded.

So what was behind the pair's upward movement on Tuesday? In our view, it was nothing specific. Macroeconomics could not provoke a rise in the British pound. There were no fundamental events during the day. Traders have long stopped paying attention to Trump's promises. No changes occurred in the situation in the Middle East. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing; both sides continue to issue ultimatums to each other, and neither is ready to make significant concessions. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and no independent experts see any signs of an end to the war, of a peace agreement being signed soon, or of the Strait of Hormuz being unblocked.

Traders have even become accustomed to the continuous violations of the ceasefire conditions established on April 8 by both Iran and the U.S. Initially, the market feared another strike from Iran or Israel or missile attacks from the U.S., but now it has become accustomed to them, realizing that they will not affect the negotiation process. Tehran and Washington do not want to resume war, nor are they willing to make concessions to sign an agreement; they respond to each attack in kind to prevent the other side from interpreting a willingness to negotiate as a weakness or readiness to accept any ultimatum. The situation is in a complete stalemate.

Thus, market movements are currently highly random. On Friday, the dollar logically rose by 100 pips, while on Monday and Tuesday it fell for no visible reason. Tomorrow it may rise again. The market itself is confused in this turmoil. We tend to think that the first two days of the week exhibited a typical technical correction.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 81 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Wednesday, June 10, we expect movement within a range bounded by levels 1.3297 and 1.3459. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upward, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the U.S. dollar to appreciate in the long term. However, 2026 is shaping up to be very positive for the dollar due to geopolitics. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading to the downside can be executed with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3245. The market situation changes frequently, and it continues to predominantly track geopolitical news, which lacks a uniform character.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the prospective price channel within which the pair will likely remain for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is near.

The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher on Tuesday, suggesting the range has resumed. How is this possible if the pair left a three-week sideways channel on Friday? It is possible, but with some nuances that should be understood. Three weeks ago, the European currency was trading in a range against the dollar, and traders stopped reacting not only to macroeconomic fundamentals but even to geopolitics. In other words, the market found itself under the following conditions. Geopolitics is recognized as the most significant factor determining market sentiment by 90%, but the market is also ready to react to events rather than to mere rumors, promises, and inside information. Since no globally significant events have occurred during this time, traders have found no reason to buy or sell.

Then came Friday, and the mega-important, highly publicized Nonfarm Payrolls report. The pair plummeted more than 100 pips, yet the market's attitude toward macroeconomics, fundamentals, and geopolitics did not change. The market still shows little interest in any economic events, and there are virtually no geopolitical events. Therefore, after Friday's decline, we now observe an increase, which most experts attribute to a rise in market risk sentiment. Of course, since Donald Trump promised for the 37th time to end the war and sign a deal with Iran...

During Trump's first term in office, statistical agencies and portals started counting how many times per day the U.S. president made false statements. Over his four-year presidency, it was estimated that Trump averaged 14.7 false statements per day. We pointed this out to traders last year, when the market repeatedly reacted to the American president's promises or threats. Later, the TACO principle emerged, which essentially means the same thing but in a different wrapper—Trump constantly promises and then "backs down."

Yesterday, he claimed for the 37th time that "a deal with Iran is imminent and could be signed very soon." 37 times in two months. Essentially, Trump is making the same promise every two days. Therefore, we do not consider the fall of the American currency on Tuesday to be in any way connected to Trump's promises to end the war in the Middle East. The market can stumble upon the same rake twice or even five times. But 37 times is too much.

What we saw on Tuesday was a return of quotes to a convenient price range. That is, back into the sideways channel of 1.1597-1.1658. In the last two months, the American currency has strengthened well, but its long-term prospects have not changed. The dollar can only rely on a resumption of war in the Middle East, which we hope to avoid.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 10 is 65 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move within a range bounded by levels 1.1483 and 1.1613 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating a trend change to bullish. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area and formed two "bearish" divergences, warning of the onset of a downward correction that is still not complete. On Friday, it entered the oversold area, signaling a possible end to the correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1536

S2 – 1.1475

S3 – 1.1414

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1658

R3 – 1.1719

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, presumably a correction within the context of a global upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, and only the geopolitical factor regularly supports it. If the price is below the moving average, short positions may be considered with targets at 1.1483 and 1.1475. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1719 and 1.1780. The market continues to move away from geopolitical factors, but in recent weeks the dollar has been in demand as hopes for peace in the Middle East have weakened.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the prospective price channel within which the pair will likely remain for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is near.

The GBP/USD currency pair also showed initial growth, followed by a decline on Tuesday. For the same reasons, there were no important reports coming from the UK, and European (German) reports on industrial production and the trade balance could not stimulate European currencies with their results. As for American reports, the data on existing home sales is unlikely to have spurred a sharp change in market sentiment and dollar growth. Therefore, we believe that the pair's movements on Tuesday were again fully dependent on geopolitical factors. In the first half of the day, risk-averse sentiment prevailed due to Trump's new promises (does anyone still believe them?), while in the second half, risk-on sentiment emerged (though the precise reasons remain unknown). Today, the U.S. will release the inflation report, which could trigger volatility, and we have little doubt that new geopolitical news will emerge. Thus, movements during the day may again be mixed.

From a technical standpoint, the downward trend continues, and the price has failed to consolidate above the Kijun-sen line. The price is located below the Ichimoku indicator lines, but there is currently no trend line, and Friday's dollar growth may be a one-time occurrence. Geopolitics no longer provides the same support for the dollar as it did previously, but in 2026, many factors favor the American currency. Significant reasons are required for a new price decline.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, five trading signals were formed. The first sell signal near 1.3369-1.3377 proved false, but the other signals enabled traders to profit. For example, breaking the 1.3369-1.3377 area allowed for long positions, while consolidation below the critical line allowed for shorts. The profit was modest for both trades, as volatility during the European and American sessions was still closer to low.

COT Report

The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has shifted consistently in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are generally close to zero. Currently, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders still dominating in terms of short positions. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies is low.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, which are clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors are currently the priority, which have recently provided strong support to the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East is not yet resolved, the U.S. dollar may still see growth. According to the latest COT report (dated June 2), the "Non-commercial" group closed 4,300 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 9,200 contracts over the week.

GBP/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has ended its upward trend amid renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and relations between Iran and the U.S. The macroeconomic and fundamental background still does not significantly influence the pair's movements (with rare exceptions). We do not believe that without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar can show strong growth, but the American currency's position is currently more favorable than that of the British pound.

For June 10, we highlight the following important levels for trading: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3437) and Kijun-sen (1.3392) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Wednesday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, while the U.S. will release an important inflation report that will affect the Federal Reserve's rate decision next week. Additionally, new geopolitical information may come in throughout the day.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting the 1.3179-1.3187 range if price consolidates below the 1.3369-1.3377 area. Long positions can be opened on a bounce from the 1.3369-1.3377 area, but the Ichimoku indicator lines are in close proximity to this area, making long positions less of a priority.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are indicated by thick red lines, around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extremum levels are indicated by thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in varying directions on Tuesday. In the first half of the day, an increase was observed, which may have been prompted by more of Donald Trump's promises about the closeness of a deal with Iran. However, in the second half of the day, a crash occurred, triggered by one event—the Iranian government's denial of Trump's statements. Let's remember that the U.S. president has promised a deal "within the next couple of days, a couple of weeks" before. However, in all previous cases, Iranian officials denied these promises. On Tuesday, Trump stated not only about the closeness of an agreement but also about Iran's consent to abandon nuclear weapons. We are almost certain that this information is not accurate. Therefore, it is currently unclear what caused the sharp rise of the dollar in the second half of the day, but we assume it relates to official statements from Tehran. Thus, geopolitical fluctuations continue to manifest themselves vividly, and the geopolitical backdrop can change multiple times within a day.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend has resumed, but whether it will continue remains a big question. If Tehran and Washington somehow sign a deal, demand for the U.S. currency will decrease. If inflation in the U.S. begins to slow, the Federal Reserve will not face a dilemma about whether to tighten monetary policy, which would also weaken the position of the U.S. dollar. A new inflation report will be published today.

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed on Tuesday. Initially, the pair perfectly bounced off the level of 1.1542, allowing traders to open long positions. Afterward, the price bounced off the critical line, creating an opportunity for short positions. By the end of the day, the 1.1542 level was reached, so traders could open two trades and profit on both.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 2. On the weekly timeframe illustration, it is evident that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has served as a "reserve currency" for some time. However, this process may already be complete.

We still do not see any fundamental factors to strengthen the European currency, while there are plenty of factors for the U.S. dollar to decline. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor runs out of "shelf life," everything will revert to the way it was. And that shelf life may have already expired. In the long term, the euro may decline to $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over the past few months, the pair has not come very close to this line.

The positioning of the indicator's red and blue lines suggests parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 12,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 7,000. Consequently, the net position increased by 21,400 contracts in a week.

EUR/USD Analysis 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense; it is not worsening, but Washington and Tehran cannot agree on at least a temporary peace deal. If new signs of a resumption of war in the Middle East do not emerge and a memorandum of understanding is signed, the dollar will begin to lose positions. But for now, we see neither a deal nor a resurgence of war.

For June 10, we highlight the following important trading levels: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1637) and Kijun-sen (1.1573). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be factored into the determination of trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss at breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Wednesday, only one report is scheduled for release in the Eurozone and the U.S., and it is quite significant. Inflation in the U.S. is virtually guaranteed to accelerate in May, but the market may ignore this report as it has been prone to doing lately. However, a sharp rise in inflation will increase the probability that the Fed will tighten monetary policy in 2026.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1444 if the price consolidates below 1.1542. Long positions can be opened if there is consolidation above 1.1542, with a target of 1.1585.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Support and resistance price levels are indicated by thick red lines, around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extremum levels are indicated by thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The PMI index for May shows a noticeable slowdown in economic activity after a strong growth in April. Particularly indicative is the sharp decline in the services sector—the steepest in the last four years. Conversely, the manufacturing sector is currently stable, with consistent growth in production and orders. Retail sales in April reflected a decline in consumer sentiment, showing the most significant monthly drop in a year. In April, job losses accelerated (-100,000), and the unemployment rate reached 5.0%.

All of these are quite troubling data points, limiting the BoE's ability to adjust interest rates. Although inflation in April was lower than expected (core inflation continued to decline, and the impact of energy prices has not yet fully manifested), the situation could change. Producer prices are already showing strong growth in both sectors—manufacturing and services. This growth significantly outpaces the Eurozone indicators, creating a basis for it to be reflected in consumer prices in the near future.

Despite systematic calls for a rate hike, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey maintains a cautious rhetoric. He admits the possibility of exceeding the target inflation level, citing uncertainty about the impact of the war in Iran on the economy and weak growth rates.

Overall, the situation appears complex. The BoE must balance the need to combat inflation with the risk of exacerbating the impending economic downturn. Much will be clarified next week, as reports on industrial production, the trade balance, consumer inflation, and the labor market will be sequentially published before the BoE meeting.

Comparing the threats faced by the European Central Bank and the BoE, the latter's threats are clearly higher, suggesting that the dynamics of the pound are likely to underperform compared to the euro.

The net short position in the pound has decreased over the reporting week to -4.4 billion; the bearish advantage is stable, yet the calculated price indicates a rising likelihood of corrective growth.

Previously, we expected the GBP/USD pair to decline to the support level of 1.3299. The pound fell slightly short of this mark, and now the probability of an upward bounce has increased; however, there are no reasons for confident growth. The nearest resistance is in the 1.3440/50 range, where sell-off renewals are possible.

If the U.S. inflation report on Wednesday is weaker than expected, growth may continue towards 1.3508. However, long-term reasons for a bullish reversal are not observed, so after the completion of the correction, another downward impulse is expected, updating support at the levels of 1.3299/3305.

Looking at the W1 timeframe, we see that the USD/CAD pair has been in an upward trend for six consecutive weeks. This price dynamic is due not only to the overall strengthening of the American currency (amid a rise in risk-averse sentiment) but also to the weakness of the Canadian dollar, resulting from the slowing Canadian economy.

Let's recall that after revising Canada's GDP growth data for the fourth quarter of 2025, the statistics office reported a 1.0% decrease in the economy. In the first quarter of this year, the country's GDP also declined by 0.1% (against a forecast of 1.5% growth). Thus, after two quarters, the Canadian economy has entered a phase of technical recession.

However, the structure of this decline is much more important than the mere fact of two "negative" quarters. The most concerning aspect is the reduction in business investment. Corporate investments have been declining for five consecutive quarters, and in the first quarter of this year, they fell by an additional 0.7%. This is indeed a worrying signal, as investments determine future economic productivity. Government capital expenditures have also decreased by 2.5%, primarily due to reduced military spending.

Furthermore, the Canadian real estate market, which has long been a growth driver, has exhibited negative dynamics and has struggled to withstand a prolonged period of high interest rates. Declines have been recorded in both new construction and transaction costs, indicating reduced activity in the secondary market.

Consumer spending increased by 0.4%, which at first glance indicates a revival of consumer activity. However, this growth was achieved at the expense of reduced savings: the household savings rate has fallen to its lowest level in two years, at 3.5%. At the same time, expenses for servicing mortgages and other debts rose by 0.7%, indicating increased financial pressure on households. The growth of imports (by 2.9%) has also significantly slowed down the economy. Meanwhile, the total export volume decreased by 0.1% due to a reduction in car and light truck shipments (a consequence of the White House's tariff policy).

All this, as they say, is one side of the coin. On the other side are the "Canadian Nonfarms." The paradox is that while GDP is declining, the Canadian labor market is demonstrating remarkable resilience. In May, the economy created nearly 88,000 jobs (against a forecast of +10,000), while the unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% (against a forecast of 6.9%). Notably, the overall growth in employment was ensured exclusively by the full-time employment component, while the temporary job indicator showed negative dynamics. Additionally, GDP per capita grew by about 0.9% year-on-year, thanks to tightening immigration policies (population growth rates significantly slowed).

Given these conflicting signals, it can be assumed that the Bank of Canada will try to maintain balance in its rhetoric, delivering neutral messages that emphasize a wait-and-see position. Notably, the central bank representatives in their recent speeches have not dramatized the situation regarding the economic slowdown. In particular, Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers recently stated that we should not draw far-reaching conclusions based solely on a formal definition of a technical recession, since preliminary data and leading indicators point to a recovery in activity already underway in the second quarter. Indeed, operational estimates of growth indicate that Canada's GDP increased by about 0.4% in April, suggesting that the economy may be emerging from the downturn.

Thus, "optimistic-wait-and-see" outcomes from the Bank of Canada's June meeting may support the Canadian dollar, especially against the backdrop of disappointing first-quarter GDP growth data. The realization of such a scenario will exert pressure on the pair, allowing USD/CAD sellers to push lower towards the two nearest support levels: 1.3900 (the Kijun-sen line on the four-hour chart) and 1.3870 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the same timeframe).

While the U.S. economy is flourishing, the Eurozone is just beginning to show signs of life. This is evidenced by the first increase in Germany's industrial production since the start of the armed conflict in the Middle East.

Dynamics of Industrial Production, Exports, and Imports in Germany

However, this is just a drop in the ocean of European problems. The currency bloc's economy is weak and will not withstand the European Central Bank's tightening of monetary policy. The EUR/USD rally is not the result of a narrowing divergence in GDP growth between the U.S. and the Eurozone. It is nothing more than a victory of optimists over pessimists. Additionally, it is a result of FOMO, or the fear of missing out on profits. There is a prevailing narrative in the market that a deal between Washington and Tehran will turn winners into losers and losers into winners. Will the euro become the favorite? Then the moment should not be missed!

Unfortunately, the regional currency will not be the winner. All the "bulls" of EUR/USD can hope for are temporary pullbacks to the downward trend. The rally in U.S. Treasury yields also speaks volumes. It is likely that the Federal Reserve will soon raise rates.

Dynamics of Fed Rates and Treasury Yields

Which market is mistaken? The currency market, which paints an optimistic outlook for the euro with its weak Eurozone economy and the danger of political missteps by the ECB in the form of premature tightening of monetary policy? Or the bond market, with its demands for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate? Only time will tell the answer to this question.

For now, it makes sense to wait for the opening of U.S. stock indices to understand what is happening with the global risk appetite. If it rises amid expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, the EUR/USD rally will make sense. If it falls, investor interest will shift back to safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar.

Alas, markets can also make mistakes. Perhaps because they are driven by people. There's a saying that markets have predicted nine recessions out of five. I would not be overly optimistic about the euro's rally ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data.

Technically, on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair has bounced off a local bottom. However, as long as the previous long-bodied bar is not surpassed, "bears" will dominate the market. Therefore, a rebound from resistance levels at $1.1585 and $1.1615 or a return of the euro below $1.1555 will provide grounds for selling.

Particular attention will be paid to the press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Investors will closely analyze her words since the agenda includes the ECB's readiness for further rate hikes at the next meeting in July. Since the June increase is already factored into current quotes and is unlikely to significantly affect them, a hint of tightening policy in July could strengthen the euro. Currently, the market estimates the probability of such a scenario at about 30%.

Market confidence in the rate hike was established back in April amid risks of accelerating inflation. Now, it has become evident that the rise in energy prices is becoming persistent and prolonged, which inevitably affects overall inflation.

The primary issue remains the uncertain economic outlook. The composite PMI index is below the growth zone, primarily due to weakness in the services sector. The manufacturing sector is still above the 50-point mark, mainly due to the fulfillment of orders accumulated before the onset of the conflict. However, the decline in new orders and reduction in employment indicate worsening underlying conditions.

Rising energy prices are reducing real household incomes and suppressing consumer demand. As a result, further declines in the manufacturing PMI index are almost inevitable in the coming months, which in turn will slow GDP growth. There is also a clear decrease in demand for labor, reflected in the slowdown of average wage growth.

The net long position in euros increased by a substantial $2.8 billion over the reporting week, with the calculated price trying to stabilize above the long-term average.

The EUR/USD pair successfully tested the support level at 1.1575, which had been considered the nearest target a week earlier; this move was triggered by a strong U.S. employment report. The anticipated ECB rate hike and the confident rhetoric from members of the Governing Council may support the euro in the short term and prompt a "bullish" pullback. However, the long-term probability of a trend reversal towards growth remains low.

Any significant growth will be limited by the resistance zone of 1.1670/90, where a resumption of selling is likely. A decline below 1.1500 is unlikely, at least until the results of the ECB meeting. However, if inflation data in the U.S. on Wednesday show a significant price increase, the dollar will gain momentum to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair will quickly return to a downward trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair is approaching the key level of 1.3400 against the backdrop of a weakening U.S. dollar; however, fundamental factors suggest a cautious approach before opening positions for further gains.

The statement from the Iranian army regarding the end of attacks on Israel, accompanied by a warning of possible retaliatory actions in the event of new strikes on Lebanon, as well as the confirmation of the cessation of hostilities from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who promised a firm response to future threats, has put pressure on the U.S. dollar. As a result, the American currency retreated from two-month highs, providing moderate support to the GBP/USD pair.

At the same time, ongoing disagreements between the U.S. and Iran over key issues, including the nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, limit improvement in market sentiment. Combined with hawkish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policies, this helps curb the dollar's decline. Currently, the market assesses the probability of a Fed interest rate hike by the end of the year at more than 70% against the backdrop of persistent inflation risks, which supports demand for the dollar and limits the growth potential of GBP/USD.

Additional pressure on the British pound stems from domestic political uncertainty: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position has weakened following the resignation of several junior ministers. This may discourage market participants from actively increasing long positions in the pound.

Under such conditions, it makes sense to wait for a more convincing buying continuation before discussing the formation of a short-term bottom for the GBP/USD pair. The main focus should still be on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the publication of the monthly UK GDP, which could set the further direction of movement.

From a technical perspective, bulls need to overcome all moving averages for complete strength, but initial resistance is at the round level of 1.3400, followed by the 200-day SMA and the 20-day SMA. The pair found support at the round level of 1.3300. Oscillators are negative, confirming weakness in bulls and an advantage for bears in the market.

According to recent data, the U.S. dollar demonstrated the most significant strengthening this week against the Swiss franc.

From a long-term perspective, a wave C formation can be expected, with its low positioned below the low of wave A. At present, it is difficult to believe in such a substantial decline of the euro, but the first quarter of 2026 demonstrated that geopolitical developments can dramatically alter market trends.

On a lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure. Once this structure is complete, the pair may transition into a new upward wave sequence, and at this stage the bearish structure appears complete. Therefore, a rise in the euro can be expected from the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level.

However, without support from geopolitical developments and the ECB, any appreciation of the euro is likely to face significant difficulties.

The EUR/USD pair gained 40 points on Tuesday, responding to a reduction in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Today, markets learned that Israel and Iran, with mediation from Donald Trump, had agreed to cease military operations. The U.S. president also stated that a deal with Iran would be signed within the next two weeks and that the United States would achieve a complete victory over its adversary.

Trump further claimed that Iran is highly interested in reaching an agreement with the United States and is prepared to surrender its nuclear weapons. All that remains is to wait for the next round of denials from Tehran.

It should be remembered that this is far from the first time Donald Trump has promised—or even declared—a complete victory over Iran. Frankly speaking, it remains unclear whether the United States has already achieved victory or is still preparing to do so.

The nuclear issue also remains unclear. Senior Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi and Mojtaba Khamenei, have repeatedly stated that the nuclear issue is not even part of the current negotiations and that Iran's abandonment of uranium enrichment is impossible.

I can assume that Tehran might agree to a nuclear deal similar to the one that existed in 2015. However, no such proposal is currently being offered. Trump is demanding the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran, an end to any future enrichment activities, and the closure of nuclear facilities.

I may be mistaken, but it seems to me that markets have once again received a fresh dose of misinformation from the White House.

It should also be remembered that Trump has already promised approximately twenty times that a peace agreement with Iran would be signed "within the next few days." At times, it resembles a form of neuro-linguistic programming. The impression is that by repeating the same message over and over again, Trump hopes to convince the world—and Iran in particular—that a deal is inevitable.

Whether this strategy will prove successful remains uncertain, but so far it has produced few tangible results. Nevertheless, the market appears to appreciate the U.S. president's optimism.

Today, demand for the U.S. dollar weakened as geopolitical risks declined.

Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within a broader upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a downward trend segment that may already be complete.

In my view, the current environment offers a reasonable opportunity to consider building long positions. The failed attempt to break below 1.1513, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, combined with the completed appearance of the bearish trend segment, suggests that the pair may transition into a new upward wave sequence with targets near the 1.1700 level and above.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the formation of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, wave C is expected to develop with targets around 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Once the A-B-C corrective structure is complete, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Core Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty regarding price direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The GBP/USD pair has an excellent opportunity to continue its decline after reacting to bearish Imbalance 19 following two weeks of trading within it. However, the situation is not as straightforward as it may seem.

Following Friday's decline triggered by the Nonfarm Payrolls report, a new bearish Imbalance 20 was formed. Today, price has completely filled this imbalance, and at the current pace of bullish pressure, it may soon be invalidated. If that happens, the bearish move will be interrupted before it has even properly begun.

Once again, traders will be reminded of how quickly conditions can change both in the currency market and in the Middle East. Today, the market sold the U.S. dollar, apparently in response to renewed optimistic comments from Donald Trump regarding a potential resolution of the conflict, as well as reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

It is difficult to determine who in the market is still willing to believe that an agreement between Tehran and Washington is imminent. Military actions between Israel and Iran could resume just as quickly as they stopped. Therefore, the coming weeks are likely to bring numerous geopolitical reversals in price action.

If Imbalance 20 is invalidated, no active trading pattern will remain. I would like to remind traders that opening positions from an area of interest requires more than simply a reaction from that zone—a valid signal must form within it. In other words, a sell signal inside Imbalance 20 may never materialize.

Overall, the situation surrounding the Middle East conflict is better than it was a few months ago when the parties were engaged in full-scale military confrontation. Nevertheless, the pendulum can swing in the opposite direction at any moment.

Over the past several weeks, we have witnessed numerous potential escalations in the Middle East, and only the reluctance of both sides to resume large-scale military operations has prevented the conflict from reigniting.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's significant declines this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still in place and may be extended for another 60 days.

However, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked from both sides, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations is based largely on statements from Donald Trump. Iran continues to present a very different interpretation of the situation.

Conditions continue to shift between improvement and deterioration. For now, the market retains some confidence that an agreement can eventually be reached, but that confidence is not unlimited.

The current technical picture is as follows. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a valid price reaction, while Imbalance 19 eventually produced a sell signal. However, only two days after that signal appeared, bullish rather than bearish pressure emerged.

The reason is that the geopolitical backdrop has shifted once again. As a result, technical patterns continue to trigger frequent reversals, while traders often struggle to react quickly enough to rapidly changing developments.

There was no significant economic news on Tuesday. Market participants reacted positively to Trump's latest promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and thereby reduce oil prices, although in my opinion these promises have little connection to reality.

Nevertheless, Iran and Israel have suspended military operations, which is certainly a positive development. The situation remains unstable and highly unpredictable.

The broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect continued long-term weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict involving Iran and the United States changes little in that regard.

Geopolitical developments temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status for roughly two months, but the overall environment for the U.S. currency remains unfavorable.

If the U.S. economy gains momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its monetary tightening cycle, and tensions between the United States and Iran evolve into a prolonged conflict, then the dollar could realistically target the 1.3100–1.3000 level against the pound.

However, in my view, the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar could not have fundamentally changed because of a single strong Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Federal Reserve has not yet signaled any readiness to tighten monetary policy.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

• United States – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 10 contains one event, but it is an important one. The economic backdrop may have a noticeable impact on market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

The long-term outlook for the British pound remains bullish, although the most recently formed signal is a sell signal. Therefore, in the near term, provided that geopolitical developments do not interfere, bears may continue their advance toward the lows of May 18 and March 31. Liquidity could be taken from those swing lows, after which, if geopolitical conditions improve, bulls may regain control and resume the upward trend. At present, it is difficult to imagine a quick resolution to the conflict involving Iran and the United States, which limits the pound's upside potential. At the same time, the dollar repeatedly loses momentum as occasional positive developments continue to emerge from the Middle East.

The EUR/USD pair spent two weeks trading within Imbalance 13, attempting to form a buy signal inside this zone. However, bulls failed to find sufficient grounds for a new advance, and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report dealt a significant blow to bullish sentiment. The pair fell well below Imbalance 13, invalidating this pattern.

The only remaining signal is the one formed within Imbalance 15, but it is a bearish signal within a trend that is still considered bullish. Last Friday, a new bearish Imbalance 16 was formed, and prices may react to it as early as today.

However, it should be emphasized once again that bearish signals are forming within a bullish trend that cannot yet be considered complete. Moreover, under current conditions, any chart signal or pattern should be treated with caution, as geopolitical developments are capable of invalidating virtually any technical setup.

Earlier today, Donald Trump once again stated that the conflict with Iran could be resolved within the coming weeks and that the parties may reach a mutually beneficial agreement. In addition, Iran and Israel have halted mutual attacks, which is undoubtedly a step toward broader de-escalation. These two developments were the primary drivers behind EUR/USD's rise on Tuesday.

However, tomorrow Iran could resume attacks against Israel or the United States, or announce that no progress has been made in negotiations. In that case, the U.S. dollar could strengthen once again.

The objective reality is that the conflict in the Middle East is far from resolved, while Tehran and Washington remain unable to agree on terms that would satisfy all parties. On Monday, Iran carried out its first strikes against Israel in two months in response to an Israeli attack on Beirut, once again putting negotiations and a potential peace agreement at risk.

Such developments are no longer surprising, as the parties involved in the conflict continue to exchange strikes on a regular basis. At times, they appear more concerned with avoiding any appearance of weakness than with preserving the negotiation process. As a result, the U.S. dollar continues to benefit from geopolitical support.

In the near term, both price action and market sentiment will remain heavily dependent on geopolitical developments. If Tehran and Washington ultimately sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, and make progress on the nuclear issue, bears may be forced to retreat, allowing the euro and pound to resume their upward movement.

However, the situation remains highly fluid, forcing both bulls and bears to repeatedly adjust their positions.

Under current conditions, traders may consider bearish patterns. A new sell signal within bearish Imbalance 16 could emerge as early as today. Nevertheless, if an agreement between Iran and the United States is eventually reached, the euro could resume its advance despite the presence of bearish patterns.

Market sentiment continues to shift back and forth, forcing traders to adapt their strategies accordingly.

It is worth emphasizing once again that the U.S. dollar's rally between January and March was driven primarily by geopolitical factors. As soon as the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, bearish pressure on EUR/USD eased, and bulls dominated trading for more than a month.

At present, the likelihood of a broader agreement appears to be declining again, while the market remains highly skeptical of reports suggesting an imminent resolution to the conflict or a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the United States. Consequently, geopolitical developments continue to exert background pressure on EUR/USD.

The economic calendar was not responsible for Tuesday's rise in the euro. Earlier in the day, Germany released trade balance and industrial production reports, which delivered mixed results. The reasons behind the dollar's decline have already been discussed above.

Tomorrow, market participants will assess the inflation report, which could once again alter trader sentiment.

Bulls still have numerous arguments in their favor in 2026, and the conflict in the Middle East has not materially reduced them. From both a structural and long-term perspective, Trump's policies—which contributed to the significant decline of the U.S. dollar last year—remain largely unchanged.

In the coming months, the U.S. dollar may occasionally strengthen amid periods of risk aversion. However, this factor requires a continued escalation of tensions in the Middle East. I still do not believe in the emergence of a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but it remains unclear what factors could provide bears with a durable long-term advantage.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

• United States – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 10 contains only one event, but it is an important one. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The information backdrop changed sharply three months ago, but the broader trend cannot yet be considered canceled or completed.

Therefore, bulls may well resume their advance in the near future if geopolitical developments provide even modest support.

At present, traders can maintain short positions initiated from Imbalance 15 while waiting for a new sell signal from Imbalance 16. The pair's decline has persisted for objective reasons. Without the strong U.S. labor market and unemployment data, the support zone represented by Imbalance 13 would most likely have held.

However, that support failed, giving bears an opportunity to extend their advance. The key question now is whether geopolitical developments will allow them to do so.

As reported today, representatives of the US administration will hold a special meeting with law?enforcement agencies to discuss contentious provisions of the bill. The sticking point is a developer?protection clause for blockchain protocol creators, modeled on the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Law enforcement officials fear this provision would effectively create legal shields for those building infrastructure that could be used to launder money and conduct other illicit financial activities. Several Democrats have already said they will not support the bill until these concerns are resolved. Given that the CLARITY Act needs bipartisan votes to pass the Senate, the defection of even a few Democrats would lead to a deadlock.

Experts say the new dispute over developer protections is not a technicality but a fundamental ideological clash. The crypto industry argues that a protocol developer should not be held responsible for how third parties use their code — much like a knife maker is not responsible for crimes committed with a knife. Law enforcement counters that blockchain's anonymity and decentralization create a fundamentally different situation, where a protocol developer effectively builds infrastructure for shadow financial flows — which is no longer an abstract knife but a ready tool to bypass AML controls.

Recall that yesterday more than 200 crypto firms — including Coinbase, Kraken, a16z, Uniswap Labs and the Solana Foundation — sent a letter to the Senate urging that the developer-protection clause be preserved unchanged.

The new obstacle has arisen at the worst possible time. Only a few working weeks remain before Congress's August recess, and the Senate calendar is overloaded with budget negotiations and other priority bills. Now, on top of the political and procedural hurdles, there is a substantive — and weighty — objection from the law-enforcement community.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are now targeting a return to $63,600, which would open the path to $65,800, and from there to $67,700 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $61,100; a drop below that could quickly push BTC toward $59,600. The next downside target would be around $58,200.

Ethereum

A clear close above $1,724 would open the way to $1,783. A further target is the high near $1,838; a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,645; a return below that level could quickly push ETH toward $1,563. The further downside target would be $1,476.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

Markets reacted with higher Treasury yields and a notable strengthening of the dollar across most currencies. The Canadian dollar was the only notable exception, holding up thanks to an upbeat Canadian employment report.

Speculative positioning in the dollar against major global currencies barely changed over the reporting week — the net bullish bias stands at +$16.5 billion, with no signs of a reversal yet.

Overall, the US economy looks stronger than expected. Despite slowdown fears, including those driven by the war, the economy shows resilience and outperforms many countries dependent on Persian Gulf developments and energy supplies. Yet a contradiction remains: although nominal GDP growth has exceeded expectations, American households are not sharing the optimism — consumer confidence is at its lowest level since early 2024, and private consumption growth slowed in Q1.

Improvements in the labor market, an ongoing investment boom in artificial intelligence, and fiscal stimulus are producing results. At the same time, longer-term risks are rising and will materialize in time, though their current impact is limited. The government is seeing lower customs?duty revenues: it is now paying out as much in refunds as it collects, which widens the budget deficit. Rapid growth of US public debt could fuel inflation if investors begin to sell Treasuries. Tighter monetary policy supports the dollar, but higher interest rates also raise government debt-servicing costs. While this is largely a medium- to long-term concern, it still undermines the resilience of the dollar?based global financial system and contributes to the process of de-dollarization.

Wednesday's May inflation report is due and is likely to affect Fed rate expectations. If inflation continues to rise — a prospect few dispute — the probability of the Fed beginning a rate-hiking cycle before year-end will increase. That scenario would provide further support to the dollar.

Political tensions in the Middle East also bolster the dollar. US attempts to force Iran into a peace deal on Washington's terms have stalled, and the confrontation between Iran and Israel intensified after renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

Thus, the labor report, the revised US economic outlook, and ongoing geopolitical tensions all support dollar strength. For now, there is no basis to expect a reversal in the dollar index.

On Monday, the crypto market breathed a little easier. Iran and Israel announced a pause in hostilities, giving prices a short-lived boost. Earlier, a direct clash between the two countries — the first since April — had spooked investors and pushed assets lower.

Bitcoin returned to about $64,000 after briefly slipping under $63,000 at the outset of the strikes, CoinDesk reports. Overall, the market remained under pressure: the Fear & Greed Index fell to very low levels, and total market capitalization is still a long way from last year's peaks.

It all started on Sunday. Israel carried out strikes on Beirut. In response, Iran launched nearly 30 ballistic missiles at Israel — the first such attack since the April 8 ceasefire. Israel then struck military targets in central and western Iran.

The escalation rattled markets. Bitcoin pulled back from an intraday high of $64,128 to around $63,316 as investors fled to safe-haven assets. Oil spiked sharply — Brent rose more than 4%.

On Monday, both sides announced a pause. Iran's military command said offensive operations had ceased and noted that Israel had "been taught a lesson."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the offensive was "paused." According to a regional source cited by the Associated Press, the US told Iran that Israel would stop strikes if Iran halted rocket fire.

President Trump posted on Truth Social that "both sides are ready for an immediate ceasefire" and that "final negotiations on 'peace' are ongoing."

But the market rebound is tentative. In recent weeks, Bitcoin plunged from about $77,300 to $59,100 amid worsening geopolitics, then recovered slightly above $60,000 before the latest flare-up. The two-month truce had been cracking for weeks as rocket and drone strikes in the region increased.

Both Iran and Israel have set conditions for keeping the pause. Iran warned of a tougher response if Israeli operations in Lebanon continue. Netanyahu vowed a "forceful response" to any new attacks. How long the rally will last largely depends on whether this fragile truce holds through negotiations between the US and Iran.

Months of optimism in the tech sector on Wall Street have given way to heavy profit-taking and a sharp market sell-off. The semiconductor industry, long the main engine of the rally, took the biggest hit. The sustained decline was triggered by growing analyst concerns that AI-linked assets are severely overvalued and that current market prices no longer reflect realistic rates of corporate profit generation.

A renewed geopolitical shock, which pushed commodity prices higher, added fuel to the panic. Rising oil increases inflationary pressure on the economy and reduces the likelihood of imminent central bank easing. In an environment of sharply elevated volatility, we recommend using InstaForex trading tools to open short positions in overheated tech stocks and monetize the downward momentum across the broader market. Follow the link for more details.

"Trump effect" fades: investor confidence collapses, sparking Bitcoin sell-off

The largest cryptocurrency has fully erased the post-2024 election price gains and has returned to prior local support levels. Current dynamics reflect deep disappointment among market participants, who have lost faith in the rapid delivery of pro-crypto measures promised by US President Donald Trump amid broader stresses in the global financial system. Growing pessimism has triggered profit-taking that quickly morphed into large-scale liquidation across the digital assets space.

Price declines have sharply reduced the market capitalization of crypto treasuries and major institutional holders. Investors are rapidly withdrawing liquidity from the sector and reallocating into traditional safe-haven assets as macroeconomic risks mount. The technical picture points to prevailing bearish sentiment, and stabilizing Bitcoin now requires more than verbal political interventions — it needs concrete regulatory action. Follow the link for more details.

The price test at 160.11 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar. However, the expected decline in the pair did not materialize.

Given that markets are widely awaiting potential intervention from the Bank of Japan, no strong or directional movements are currently taking place. In the near term, data on U.S. small business sentiment (NFIB index), trade balance figures, and existing home sales will be released. These indicators have a certain level of importance for short-term forecasting of the U.S. economy and may influence trader sentiment.

The NFIB index is considered one of the key leading indicators, reflecting business activity levels and confidence among small business owners. A reading above expectations may support further upside in USD/JPY. At the same time, the trade balance reflects the ratio of exports to imports, where stronger-than-expected data may also support the U.S. dollar.

Finally, existing home sales — in a market where mortgage rates are rising almost daily — serve as an important indicator of the housing sector and the broader real estate market. They also indirectly reflect consumer confidence and mortgage affordability. Sustained growth in home sales would indicate stronger housing demand, which is unlikely. Weak housing data, on the other hand, may signal a slowdown in the real estate market and place some pressure on the U.S. dollar against the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the 160.23 level (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 160.39 (thicker green line on the chart). At 160.39, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Further upside in the pair is possible only in the case of negative news regarding a potential U.S.–Iran agreement. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2:

USD/JPY buying is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 160.11, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward 160.23 and 160.39 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakdown below 160.11 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.87, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure may return if there is intervention from the Bank of Japan. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward from it.

Scenario #2:

USD/JPY selling is also considered in the case of two consecutive tests of 160.23, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 160.11 and 159.87 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and large volumes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3373 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed the upward move.

In the near term, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, as well as trade balance data and existing home sales figures, will be released. Although these macroeconomic reports may appear unrelated, together they form a broader picture of the state of the economy. Small business optimism is a leading indicator, reflecting entrepreneurs' confidence in future prospects, their willingness to invest, and their plans for expansion.

The trade balance reflects the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services in the global market, while existing home sales are a key indicator of consumer confidence and the financial system. Only strong readings across these indicators could reverse the current bullish momentum in GBP/USD.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the 1.3404 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3426 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3426, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Further upside in the pound is only possible if U.S. data comes out weak. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2:

Pound buying is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3382, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downwardpotential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.3404 and 1.3426 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the pound after a breakdown below 1.3382 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3355, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pound may return at any moment today. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward from it.

Scenario #2:

Pound selling is also considered in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.3404, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3382 and 1.3355 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, it is possible to lose the entire deposit very quickly, especially without proper risk management and when trading large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1539 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the anticipated decline in the pair did not materialize.

Perhaps it was due to Trump's persistent statements that the conflict in the Middle East is about to end, or possibly strong German industrial production data — in any case, the euro managed to extend its previous gains, leading to a fairly solid recovery of Friday's sell-off.

Next, attention will shift to the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the trade balance, and existing home sales data. Although these macroeconomic indicators may appear unrelated, they are in fact closely interconnected, forming a broader picture of the U.S. economy. Small business optimism often serves as a leading indicator, reflecting entrepreneurs' confidence in the future and their willingness to invest and expand. The trade balance provides insight into the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services in global markets as well as domestic purchasing power. Existing home sales are one of the key indicators of consumer confidence and the financial sector. A decline in housing demand may indicate a negative trend, which would put pressure on the U.S. dollar.

A combined analysis of these three indicators provides a comprehensive view of the current economic situation. For example, if small business optimism is rising and new home sales are increasing, but a large trade deficit persists, this may suggest that domestic demand is strengthening while structural issues in external trade remain unresolved. Conversely, negative signals across all fronts may indicate an approaching recession.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases may be considered when the price reaches the 1.1573 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1597. At 1.1597, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth can be expected only if U.S. data comes out weak. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2: Euro purchases are also considered today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.1559, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1573 and 1.1597 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Euro selling is planned after reaching the 1.1559 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1532, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Downward pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: Euro selling is also considered in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.1573, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1559 and 1.1532 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and large volumes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Trump's statements that the conflict in the Middle East may soon come to an end, along with a sharp increase in demand for risk assets, continue to weigh on the U.S. dollar. Strong German industrial production data allowed euro buyers to return to active trading. Traders who had previously been concerned about an escalation of tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in global growth now see reasons for a more optimistic outlook. However, despite these positive signals, caution remains warranted. Uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the Middle East and the U.S. inflation data scheduled for tomorrow could quickly change market sentiment.

During the second half of the day, attention will be focused on the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the trade balance report, and existing home sales data. While these indicators do not play a decisive role in shaping short-term forecasts for the U.S. economy, they may still influence trader sentiment.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is one of the leading indicators reflecting business activity and confidence among small-business owners. An improvement in this indicator generally signals a willingness among companies to invest, expand payrolls, and increase spending, which is supportive of the U.S. dollar.

The trade balance, in turn, provides insight into the relationship between a country's exports and imports. A trade deficit, where imports exceed exports, may put pressure on the national currency.

Finally, existing home sales serve as an important gauge of the housing sector and the real estate market as a whole. They also indirectly reflect consumer confidence and mortgage affordability. Strong sales figures—although unlikely given the current high mortgage rates—could also support the dollar.

If the data comes in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1575 may lead to a rise toward 1.1600 and 1.1625;
• A breakout below 1.1555 may lead to a decline toward 1.1530 and 1.1505;

GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3405 may lead to a rise toward 1.3441 and 1.3478;
• A breakout below 1.3380 may lead to a decline toward 1.3360 and 1.3340;

USD/JPY

• A breakout above 160.24 may lead to a rise toward 160.43 and 160.67;
• A breakout below 160.02 may trigger a decline toward 159.83 and 159.60;

Mean Reversion Strategy for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.1575 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.1535 followed by a return above this level;

GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3410 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3355 followed by a return above this level;

AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 0.7069 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 0.7038 followed by a return above this level;

USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3945 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3927 followed by a return above this level.

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for USD/CAD.

The USD/CAD pair continues to attract traders' attention, showing a rare mix of opposing forces. On the one hand, an aggressive Federal Reserve stance and geopolitical tensions are pushing the pair higher, testing multi-month highs. On the other hand, peace attempts in the Middle East and domestic problems in the Canadian economy are forcing the loonie to balance on a knife edge.

The first week of June closed on a major note for USD/CAD, with the pair updating two-month highs around 1.3950 and rising another ten pips on Monday to 1.3960. The combination of two powerful factors — a hawkish shock from US labor market data and rising Middle East tensions — hit the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar while strengthening the US dollar as a safe haven.

Yet the loonie has its own oil cushion that limits a deeper fall. As a result, the pair is in a state of tenuous equilibrium, trading just below the psychological 1.4000 level while awaiting key trigger—US inflation (CPI) data on Wednesday.

Fundamental background: double hit to CAD, triple support for USD

The main driver of the pair's rise was the shocking US nonfarm payrolls report for May. The US economy added 172,000 jobs (consensus 85,000), and revisions to the previous two months added 93,000 more jobs. This prompted a radical repricing of Fed rate expectations. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of at least one Fed rate hike by year-end jumped above 70% (from 45% a week earlier).

Ten-year US Treasury yields settled above 4.55%, and the dollar index (USDX) pushed toward 100.00, renewing two-month highs.

While the US dollar strengthens on hawkish expectations, the Canadian dollar remains vulnerable because the domestic economy unexpectedly slipped into recession and the Bank of Canada is giving dovish signals.

Key Canadian indicators

- GDP (Q1 2026) was -0.1% q/q versus a +1.5% forecast; Q4 contraction was revised to -1.0%—a technical recession is confirmed.

- Labor market: unemployment rose to 6.6% in May, although employment unexpectedly increased 0.4% m/m.

- Inflation remains slightly above the 2.0% target, at 2.8% y/y.

Geopolitical and commodity factor: oil swings

The weekend saw a fresh escalation in the Middle East. Israel and Iran exchanged direct missile strikes, and Yemeni Houthis attacked Israeli territory. That pushed crude prices up (WTI spiked to $94.80 per barrel), which paradoxically supported CAD while also strengthening the dollar as a safe haven.

By Tuesday morning, oil prices had corrected to $88–89 as hopes of a US-Iran deal resurfaced following statements from Trump about a "final stage" of talks. For Canada, a major oil exporter, a decline in crude is bearish for the loonie.

- Strong NFP (172k) — Upward pressure: probability of Fed hike rose above 70%.

- Escalation in Iran/Israel — Upward pressure: flight to the dollar as a safe haven.

- Hopes for a US-Iran deal — Downward pressure: weaker dollar demand, falling oil hurts CAD.

- Expectations of a Bank of Canada pause (June)—Upward pressure: markets price a 2.25% BoC rate to hold.

- Weak Canadian GDP (-0.1%) — Upward pressure: economy in recession limits BoC action.

- US CPI (Wednesday) — High volatility expected; forecast 4.2% y/y; strong prints could push the pair above 1.4000.

Brief technical analysis

Technically the price has closed above key moving averages on the daily and weekly charts, confirming a shift to a medium-term uptrend. Late last month the pair broke key resistance at 1.3795 (200-day EMA on the daily) and 1.3810 (50-week EMA) and is now approaching the psychologically important round level 1.4000.

The 14-day RSI on the daily is near 70, indicating sustained upside momentum but close to overbought territory. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI (59) and Stochastic (exiting overbought and moving toward the sell zone) warn of a likely correction in the next one to two days. The OsMA on D1 is positive (+0.0085), but the histogram is contracting, indicating slowing momentum.

The nearest resistance levels: 1.3960 and 1.4000 (psychological), then 1.4130 (annual high, November 2025).

The nearest support levels: 1.3900 (central pivot), 1.3881 (200-hour EMA on H1), 1.3850 (Friday low), and 1.3780 (50-day EMA on D1).

Key events this week

- Wed, 10 June 12:30 GMT — US CPI (May). Forecast: 4.2% y/y (prev. 3.8%). Impact: strong print will push USD/CAD above 1.4000; weak print will trigger a correction.

- Wed, 10 June 13:45 GMT — Bank of Canada rate decision. Expected: 2.25% (no change). A dovish signal will boost the pair; an unexpected hike will sharply lower USD/CAD.

- Thu, 11 June 12:30 GMT — US PPI. Secondary inflation indicator: the data may reinforce or weaken the trend after CPI.

- Thu, 11 June 12:15 GMT — ECB rate decision and Lagarde press conference. Expected: hike to 2.40%. The data may affect USD via EUR crosses.

Conclusion

USD/CAD sits at the epicenter of an "ideal storm" for the Canadian dollar, with an important caveat. On one side, a hawkish Fed pivot (probability of a Fed hike rose to ~70%) and a dollar rally to 100.00 on the USDX create strong tailwinds for USD. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada pause expectations (economists warn that market pricing for a 50-bp BoC move in the next 12 months looks aggressive given the weak economy) and Canada's unexpected recession (GDP -0.1% q/q) remove internal support for the loonie.

High oil prices and a geopolitical premium continue to support the Canadian dollar, preventing a sharp USD/CAD plunge.

The key zone 1.3850–1.4050 will be the battlefield over the coming days. A technical break below 1.3850 would open the way to 1.3800–1.3780 and 1.3650 (200-week EMA), while a sustained close above 1.4000 could trigger a move to 1.4130.

Priority in the current setup is to short near the upper range boundary 1.3960–1.4000, especially if CPI does not confirm accelerating inflation in the US; conversely, take long positions if US inflation confirms acceleration. Traders should exercise extreme caution: Wednesday will be a decisive macro test driven by two powerful factors — US CPI and the Bank of Canada decision.

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing limited movement on Tuesday, remaining within a narrow range during the European session. The U.S. dollar retreated from a two-month high after Iran and Israel announced on Monday that they would halt mutual attacks following a call from U.S. President Donald Trump. This development has provided moderate support for the precious metal. Nevertheless, market participants remain cautious and prefer to wait for further developments in the Middle East, keeping prices near the lowest levels seen since March 23, recorded the previous day.At the same time, diplomatic contacts between the United States and Iran remain stalled due to significant disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program. In particular, Trump emphasized that any peaceful resolution must eliminate the possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Iran, in turn, continues to insist on international recognition of its sovereignty, control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of sanctions, and the unfreezing of its assets. These substantial differences continue to support a geopolitical risk premium, sustaining demand for safe-haven assets.

In addition, shipping activity through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, maintaining elevated volatility in energy markets. This increases inflation risks and strengthens expectations of tighter monetary policy from major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the market currently assigns a probability of more than 70% to a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase before year-end. This factor is keeping U.S. Treasury yields elevated, limiting downward pressure on the dollar and restraining gains in non-yielding gold.

Investors may also remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data. Reports on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for May are scheduled for release on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These indicators are key to assessing the future path of Federal Reserve monetary policy and, consequently, the direction of the U.S. dollar.

At the same time, geopolitical developments are likely to remain a source of additional volatility and short-term price swings for gold. Overall, current fundamental conditions continue to favor a bearish outlook for XAU/USD, and any recovery attempts are likely to attract renewed selling interest.

From a technical perspective, last week's consolidation below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) reinforced bearish sentiment. However, the subsequent decline lost momentum near the $4,260 level. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break below this area before considering new short positions.

Technical indicators remain in negative territory, suggesting that bears continue to hold the advantage. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold conditions, which is limiting aggressive selling activity.

The nearest resistance level is located at $4,350, followed by resistance near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the psychological level of $4,400. Beyond that, gold will face resistance at the 200-day SMA near $4,435.

A break above this level would help bulls reduce the current downward pressure, after which the next obstacle would be the 20-day SMA near the psychological level of $4,500.

This area remains a significant barrier that continues to limit upward potential within the prevailing bearish market structure.

The purchase immediately spawned a conspiratorial theory that is widely discussed in the crypto community: what if Strategy deliberately sold 32 Bitcoin at $77,135 to provoke FUD and additional market pressure in order to repurchase coins cheaper afterwards? The logic is elegant: sell a small amount at a high price, sow panic, wait for the decline, buy back a larger amount at a lower price. If the Bitcoin were repurchased in the $60,000–$65,000 range, the arbitrage would amount to tens of millions of dollars of net profit in Bitcoin for the company—precisely the metric Saylor has called the goal of his operations. Intent cannot be proven, but the arithmetic fits: 32 coins sold and 1,550 bought do not look like a forced liquidation.

In any case, the market signal from the trade is unambiguous: Strategy does not intend to give up. The company is buying against the backdrop of $5.4 billion of total outflows from Bitcoin ETFs over four weeks, a breach of the $60,000 level, and widespread pessimism. This is either a show of iron confidence in the long-term narrative or a forced attempt to support the company's equity price—most likely both simultaneously.

Trading recommendations:

Buyers of Bitcoin are currently targeting a return to $63,600, a level that would open a direct path to $65,800 and then to $67,700; a breach above $67,700 would indicate attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $61,100. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $59,600, with a farther target at $58,200.

As for Ethereum, a clear hold above $1,724 would open a direct route to $1,783. The farther target is the high near $1,838; a break above that level would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,645. A fall below that level could rapidly send ETH toward $1,563, with a deeper target at $1,476.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

And yet, longs in the pair still look risky. The bears have not capitulated but have merely made a tactical retreat ahead of key US inflation releases. May CPI and PPI data, to be published on Wednesday and Thursday, could provide additional support to the greenback and further strengthen an already favorable dollar fundamental backdrop.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is almost 100 percent confident the Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged at the next two meetings — in June and July. By contrast, the outlook for September is less clear: the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is now estimated at roughly 40 percent. If the upcoming inflation releases prints in the green zone (especially core measures), hawkish expectations regarding further Fed action will grow again, and the dollar will once more enjoy heightened demand.

Preliminary forecasts indicate a high likelihood of that scenario. Most analysts expect the headline consumer price index to reach a three-year high of 4.2% year-on-year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also expected to show an upward move to 2.9% year-on-year.

Leading indicators signal that core inflation may surprise traders on the upside, reaching the three-percent mark. A key signal here is an increase in the price's components of ISM business activity indices in both services and manufacturing, which traditionally lead consumer price dynamics. Continued wage growth (despite a modest slowdown in the rate to 3.4% in May) and a high level of job openings (7.62 million) also support inflation in the services sector. In addition, rising inflation expectations among households and businesses further raise the risk of price inertia.

All these signs increase the probability that core consumer prices will accelerate more than expected — to 3.0% or higher.

Market expectations are similar for May PPI, to be released on Thursday. Most experts expect the headline producer price index to speed up to 6.8% from 6.0% and core PPI to rise to 5.3% (after 5.2% in April). Again, if core PPI accelerates more than expected, the dollar will be well supported, including versus the euro.

In other words, the upside prospects for EUR/USD are highly uncertain. Long positions in the pair are therefore risky now, especially ahead of the CPI and PPI releases. Against a backdrop of rising hawkish expectations for Fed policy, the pair will remain under background pressure. Therefore, corrective price spikes are best treated as opportunities to open short positions. The key support level remains 1.1500 (the lower Bollinger band line on the H4 chart).

However, risks to the downside scenario remain: a potential US-Iran deal would be a kind of Damocles' sword for the southbound trend. For example, today Donald Trump again said the parties are very close to a strong and powerful agreement.

The market reacted cautiously to those words, which is understandable—according to CNN's calculations, the US president has said 37 times (!) that a deal with Iran is imminent. More than two months ago, on 7 April, Trump posted that the talks were at a very advanced stage but that two weeks were needed to polish and conclude the agreement. No resolution followed, yet in subsequent months he repeatedly and unambiguously suggested that a deal was at hand. Analysts surveyed say that there is no sign that today is any closer to the truth than 7 April. Positions remain far apart, and neither side appears prepared to accept broad unilateral concessions.

If the diplomatic track remains in its current sluggish format (without significant escalation or de-escalation), traders will focus on inflation data. The CPI and PPI reports are likely to support the dollar and, therefore, sellers of EUR/USD.

The firm lists three factors that make this scenario increasingly probable: a large investment cycle in AI, a tightening of conditions in energy markets, and a strengthening labor market. All three are present at the same time and reinforce one another.

On the labor market, the central point of Fed attention, low unemployment and constrained labor supply mean any further acceleration risks pushing wages above levels compatible with 2% inflation. The May employment report — +172,000 jobs versus a forecast of 85,000 — confirmed that this risk is not hypothetical. Markets are already pricing a 25-basis-point hike by December, and the chance of an earlier move in September is growing.

A separate thesis worth attention concerns inflation even after a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The firm warns that even if the conflict with Iran is resolved, price pressure will not automatically disappear. Inventories depleted during the blockade will need replenishing. Governments and companies, scarred by the energy crisis, will build larger strategic reserves and diversify supply chains—a structural rise in costs across the economy for many months to come. In other words, reopening the strait will reduce the geopolitical premium in oil but will not eliminate inflationary pressure entirely.

A final risk that is receiving little attention so far is political pushback against AI. Ahead of the November midterm elections, concerns about job losses, energy consumption, and inflation are attracting growing political attention.

For the dollar, the picture is unequivocally positive. Fed rate hikes in the context of a resilient economy and persistent inflation make US assets more attractive to global investors—the yield gap between the United States and other major economies will widen. If the ECB pauses after a June increase while the Fed continues to tighten, monetary divergence will favor the dollar against the euro and other developed market currencies. For emerging markets, a stronger dollar and higher US rates mean capital outflows and pressure on local currencies — a pattern that is already observable.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD

Buyers of EUR/USD should consider taking 1.1550. That will allow a test of 1.1580, and from there the pair could reach 1.1600, although advancing beyond that level without support from major participants would be difficult. The farther target is the high near 1.1625. On the downside, only substantive buying interest around 1.1530 would prompt large players to act; absent that, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1505 or to consider long entries from 1.1480.

Technical outlook for GBP/USD

For GBP/USD, sterling buyers must clear the nearest resistance at 1.3370 to target 1.3405; moving above that level may prove difficult, with a further target at 1.3440. If the pair falls, bears will seek to seize control at 1.3335. A decisive break below 1.3335 would likely inflict significant damage on long positions and could push GBP/USD toward 1.3300, with downside risk extending to 1.3285.