The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has become fairly clear. There is still no indication that the upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), which began in January of last year, has been canceled. However, the trend structure has now taken on a corrective form. From a longer-term perspective, the formation of wave C can be expected, with its low likely to fall below the low of wave A. At the moment, it is difficult to believe in such a significant decline in the euro, as the conflict in the Middle East appears to be moving toward a resolution and the U.S. dollar currently lacks other major sources of support. Therefore, the anticipated wave C could prove to be truncated.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure. Following the completion of this structure, the instrument may transition into a new upward wave sequence, and at present, the structure appears complete. Consequently, a rise in the euro can be expected from the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. However, without support from geopolitical developments, the euro cannot expect strong market demand.

The EUR/USD pair gained 10 basis points during Tuesday's session, while volatility remained extremely low from the morning onward. The market remains calm and is not rushing to price in new developments. Today, traders ignored another four economic reports from the European Union and the United States, but this should surprise no one. We have been observing this pattern for several months. Ahead of the meetings of two major central banks, the market is also showing no signs of anxiety. Neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates in June, which is one reason for the market's calm behavior. As for the ceremonial signing of the agreement between Iran and the United States scheduled for Friday, there is currently far more symbolism surrounding the event than practical significance.

Earlier this morning, I noted that both the CIA and the U.S. Department of Defense remain skeptical that Iran is prepared to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions and uranium enrichment activities in the future. This is precisely where the doubts of market participants originate—from retail traders and commercial banks to the parties involved in the negotiations themselves. Iran has fiercely defended its right to possess nuclear weapons—or at least nuclear fuel—for fifty years. Is it really prepared to give up that position now? Furthermore, as has become increasingly clear, Iran was not the initiator of military aggression, is not afraid of war, and has no intention of surrendering. What, then, could compel Iran to abandon its nuclear program if it is not even deterred by the prospect of war and has effectively lived under military pressure for decades? Therefore, the probability of reaching a comprehensive nuclear agreement remains low. Donald Trump has already stated that if Tehran rejects a nuclear agreement, he is prepared to resume military operations in the Middle East. As a result, many market participants view the agreement scheduled for Friday with a considerable degree of skepticism.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a broader upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a downward trend segment that may already be complete. In my view, this is a reasonably favorable time to consider forming long positions. The unsuccessful attempt to break below the 1.1513 level, corresponding to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, combined with the completed appearance of the downward trend segment, suggests that the pair may transition into a new upward wave sequence with targets located around the 1.17 level and above.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near future, wave C is expected to form, with targets near 1.1352, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C corrective structure is completed, a new long-term upward trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty regarding future price direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The EUR/USD pair has been rising for seven consecutive days. Initially, this advance appeared to be nothing more than a standard corrective pullback that would inevitably end within Bearish Imbalance 16. However, after seven days, it can be said that bullish traders have an excellent opportunity to regain the initiative and resume the bullish trend. I would like to remind readers that in recent months, I have repeatedly stated that the bullish trend has not ended. It has merely been paused due to the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

Take a close look at the recent candles. On Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, the price rebounded twice from Bearish Imbalance 16, which could have been interpreted as a sell signal. Everything looked logical and consistent with the prevailing market structure. However, on Thursday, the pair posted a strong rally, paused slightly on Friday, and continued to advance on Monday. Why? Because on Thursday, Donald Trump sharply changed his stance toward Iran and once again promised a deal over the weekend. On Monday, this information was confirmed by Trump, Iran, and even Pakistan. Although the agreement has not yet been signed, the fact that all three parties involved in the negotiations have confirmed it significantly increases the likelihood of its conclusion. At present, Bearish Imbalance 16 is close to being invalidated, which would serve as the first signal that the bullish trend is resuming.

In the near term, the pair's direction and trader sentiment will continue to depend on geopolitical developments. If Tehran and Washington ultimately sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, lift restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, and begin negotiations on the nuclear issue, bears will likely be forced to continue retreating, while the euro and the pound will extend their gains. However, traders are not rushing to conclusions and are waiting for the agreement to be formally ratified, which is expected to take place in Switzerland on Friday.

In addition, Christine Lagarde made it quite clear this week that inflation in the euro area remains above acceptable levels and that previous monetary tightening alone has not been sufficient to curb consumer price growth. The ECB may also raise interest rates again in July, which is providing additional support for bulls.

Under the current circumstances, there are simply no actionable patterns available. If Bearish Imbalance 16 is invalidated, it will mean that the bearish impulse has been broken. In that case, traders should expect bullish patterns to emerge and trade accordingly. A bullish imbalance may be formed this week, which could later provide opportunities to open long positions.

Once again, I must emphasize that the entire appreciation of the U.S. dollar between January and March was driven solely by geopolitical factors. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and for more than a month the market was dominated primarily by bullish traders. At present, the chances of a formal agreement remain fairly high, but the market continues to treat any reports about a rapid end to the conflict with considerable skepticism. The euro is advancing, but its gains remain measured and restrained.

As has often been the case recently, Tuesday's economic data attracted little interest from market participants. I do not attribute the euro's rise to the two ZEW Economic Sentiment indices released for Germany and the euro area, even though both figures came in significantly above expectations. U.S. economic data also had little influence on trader behavior.

Bulls still have numerous reasons to remain active in 2026, and the outbreak of war in the Middle East has done little to reduce their number. From both a structural and global perspective, Trump's policies—which contributed to a significant decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. In the coming months, the U.S. currency may occasionally strengthen as investors seek safe-haven assets, but this factor would require a continuous escalation of tensions in the Middle East. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but what will provide bears with a long-term catalyst for further gains?

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).
• European Union – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (10:50 UTC).
• United States – Retail Sales (12:30 UTC).
• United States – FOMC Interest Rate Decision (18:00 UTC).
• United States – Dot Plot Projections (18:00 UTC).
• United States – Federal Reserve Press Conference (18:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 17 contains six events, three of which can be considered important. The economic backdrop is expected to influence market sentiment during the final quarter of the trading day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news backdrop shifted sharply in favor of bears three months ago, but the broader trend cannot be considered canceled or completed. Therefore, bulls may well resume their advance in the near future if geopolitical developments continue to support them.

At this stage, traders should wait for the formation of new patterns, preferably bullish ones. I expect such a pattern to emerge this week. It is also extremely important that the agreement between Iran and the United States does not collapse, as otherwise bears may regain the initiative, and the emerging bullish outlook could be prematurely broken—just as the bearish setup was broken last week.

The GBP/USD pair continues its upward movement and has every chance this week to invalidate Bearish Imbalance 20 and form a new bullish imbalance. Undoubtedly, current geopolitical developments are supporting bullish traders. However, it should be noted that the pound's advance remains highly unconvincing and could even result in the formation of a trading range. In fact, the pound has been trading within a horizontal channel between 1.3305 and 1.3505 for several weeks. The upward movement remains weak, the bearish pattern failed to materialize, and no bullish patterns have emerged so far.

If an agreement between Iran and the United States is signed by the end of the week, it will become much easier for bulls to continue their advance. If not, no meaningful bullish momentum is likely to develop. Under the current circumstances, traders can only wait for new patterns to form, as there is little to work with at the moment. It is also important to closely monitor geopolitical news if new patterns do emerge, as geopolitical developments can invalidate any technical setup almost instantly. We witnessed exactly this last week. Bears were preparing for a new decline from Bearish Imbalance 20, but Donald Trump announced the possibility of a peace agreement with Iran instead of the previously expected military strikes. As a result, bearish traders immediately retreated despite the presence of Bearish Imbalance 20.

The Federal Reserve meeting will take place on Wednesday evening, followed by the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. I do not expect either central bank to signal future rate hikes or make any major policy decisions in June. Therefore, trader sentiment is unlikely to change significantly as a result of these events. However, market activity remains subdued, and traders clearly need a catalyst to generate a new directional move.

The situation in the Middle East has started to improve. The U.S. dollar generally performs better during periods of geopolitical tension than either the euro or the pound. Therefore, if the conflict in the Middle East moves toward resolution, both the euro and the pound are likely to receive additional support. At present, however, the market remains highly cautious regarding reports of a potential agreement. For example, Israel indicated on Monday that its interests had not been adequately taken into account, which could potentially trigger renewed tensions in the region. In that case, the efforts of both the United States and Iran could prove ineffective.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's significant declines earlier this year. At present, the ceasefire in the Middle East remains in place and may be extended. The Strait of Hormuz remains subject to restrictions, while the nuclear issue has not been resolved. The situation continues to fluctuate between improvement and deterioration. As a result, market participants are uncertain about which developments to trust and remain reluctant to take additional risks.

The technical picture is currently as follows. All available and valid patterns have either been completed, invalidated, or are likely to be invalidated soon. I continue to expect a new bullish surge, which would require the signing of an agreement between Iran and the United States. Therefore, traders should wait for a positive resolution of the Middle East situation and the formation of new patterns.

The economic news backdrop on Tuesday was effectively absent. In the United States, reports on housing starts and building permits were released, but these figures failed to attract traders' attention. This outcome was largely expected. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be far more important in terms of news flow, and the key market moves of the week will likely occur during those sessions.

The broader fundamental backdrop remains such that, over the long term, I can only anticipate further weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict involving Iran and the United States changes little in this regard. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded markets of the dollar's safe-haven status for roughly two months, but the overall outlook for the U.S. currency remains less favorable. If the U.S. economy gains momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its monetary tightening cycle, and tensions between the United States and Iran evolve into a prolonged conflict, then the dollar could realistically target the 1.3100–1.3000 level. However, in my opinion, the long-term outlook for the U.S. currency could not have changed solely because of one strong Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Federal Reserve has not yet signaled any readiness to tighten monetary policy further.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC).
• United States – Retail Sales (12:30 UTC).
• United States – FOMC Interest Rate Decision (18:00 UTC).
• United States – Dot Plot Projections (18:00 UTC).
• United States – Federal Reserve Press Conference (18:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 17 contains five events, four of which are considered important. The economic backdrop will begin influencing market sentiment from the start of Wednesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish, while all bearish patterns have either been invalidated or are no longer relevant. Therefore, traders should expect the formation of new patterns in the near future, which will provide guidance regarding the likely direction of the next move. However, it should also be noted that geopolitical developments can push the pound in either direction, and the Middle East conflict has not yet been fully resolved, making it premature to open long positions without clear trading signals. If an agreement is signed, the pound has every chance of advancing toward at least the 1.3655 level.

The White House and Iran are close to signing a historic peace agreement that could fundamentally change the balance of power in the energy market. The main consequence of these talks could be the complete lifting of the strict energy embargo that had applied to the Islamic Republic. Against this backdrop, the commodities sector is already showing signs of heavy pressure, and analysts predict a large drop in oil prices as sizable volumes of Iranian oil inevitably return to the global market.

An official announcement on the end of Iran's maritime blockade is expected in the coming days, prompting major players to hastily reassess their Brent and WTI positions. Such a sharp shift in the geopolitical vector is provoking powerful short-term moves in commodities. In a period of heightened volatility, we recommend using InstaForex trading tools to react quickly to sudden changes in oil prices and to take short positions ahead of the market. More details via the link.

World Bank cuts GDP forecasts amid SpaceX's triumphant IPO

World Bank analysts have revised down their expectations for global growth, lowering their 2026 world GDP forecast to 2.5%. Experts link the downgrade to prolonged monetary tightening by major central banks, structural issues in emerging markets and persistent trade barriers. This move has reinforced conservative sentiment in traditional markets, prompting investors to take a more cautious view of the broad market's long-term prospects.

At the same time, the space sector has shown complete immunity to macro pessimism: SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history. The aerospace giant's market value exceeded a colossal $2.1 trillion after listing. Such a massive liquidity inflow into a single asset confirms that investors remain willing to generously fund unique tech projects despite a general slowdown in global growth. More details via the link.

Intel surge and AI barriers: conflicting drivers of the US tech sector

The US stock market has seen a strong rally in shares of semiconductor giant Intel. The catalyst was a reassessment by Bank of America's research team, which significantly upgraded its expectations for the company's operating and financial performance. Investors interpreted this as a signal that Intel's prolonged business crisis is ending and that new manufacturing capacity will soon generate consistently high profits.

Conversely, the AI sector has encountered unexpected regulatory hurdles. Anthropic was forced to officially restrict access to its flagship AI models following a direct order from the US government. This precedent raises renewed concerns about national security and technological independence, reminding the market that the high-tech sector remains under strict government oversight — a factor that could constrain further capitalization. More details via the link.

Shift in Fed rhetoric: the regulator under Kevin Warsh opts for neutrality

The US Federal Reserve under new chair Kevin Warsh is highly likely to keep the policy rate unchanged. Analysts note the Fed is gradually shifting to a more neutral and measured rhetoric regarding future policy moves. This reduces uncertainty in bond and currency markets and gives investors a clear signal that the cycle of aggressive tightening may be over.

The regulator's stance is supported by current macro indicators: there are no signs of dangerous overheating in the US economy. Stable growth combined with controlled inflationary pressure allows monetary authorities to take a wait-and-see approach. A softer Fed tone typically triggers profit-taking on the dollar, which opens excellent opportunities for traders. More details via the link.

US real estate market: building permits will point the way for the dollar

The domestic US market is on hold ahead of new building permits data. Preliminary consensus forecasts suggest a moderate decline in permits. Traders, however, view this trend not as a crisis signal but rather as a sign of a long-awaited healthy stabilization after a protracted period of high volatility in the construction sector.

This report is strategically important for the currency market because the housing sector directly reflects consumers' purchasing power and business investment confidence. Final figures could have an immediate impact on the US dollar's trajectory. If the data meet or slightly beat expectations, local demand for the dollar could return; a sharp drop would push investors to seek alternative safe-haven assets. More details via the link.

Due to low market volatility, the price never reached the levels I had identified earlier.

The yen remains stuck in a range: few traders are willing to buy it, but there is also limited appetite to sell above 160 per dollar, as the Bank of Japan could intervene in the foreign exchange market at any moment.

In the second half of the day, the United States will release data on building permits and housing starts. These figures are among the key indicators of activity in the U.S. real estate sector and, consequently, have a significant impact on the overall state of the U.S. economy. They may also affect the direction of the U.S. dollar, particularly against the yen. An increase in building permits and housing starts typically signals growing confidence among developers, which could help the dollar break above the 160.50 level. If the figures come in very weak, a pullback toward 160.00 may be expected. However, only a substantial deviation from forecasts is likely to restore meaningful volatility to the USD/JPY pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 160.40 (green line on the chart), with a target at 160.71 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.71, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Further gains in the pair can be expected today only if U.S. data comes in strong.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests the 160.21 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 160.40 and 160.71 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 160.21 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.80, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair could return today in the event of intervention by the Bank of Japan.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests the 160.40 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 160.21 and 159.80 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3405 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move higher from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair advanced by approximately 25 points.

The absence of UK economic data helped the pound regain lost ground. At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading well above its daily low, having recovered most of the losses recorded earlier in the day. The lack of fresh macroeconomic releases allowed the market to focus on technical factors, where increased buying activity was observed.

In the second half of the day, important U.S. economic data is expected, which could have a significant impact on trader sentiment. Particular attention will be paid to U.S. building permits and housing starts. Given the current economic environment, where inflationary pressure remains elevated and the Federal Reserve continues to maintain high interest rates, these figures will be closely analyzed for clues regarding future monetary policy. Stronger data from the construction sector may strengthen the case for a more hawkish policy stance, while weaker figures could prompt a reassessment of monetary policy expectations.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3434 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3468 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3468, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Further gains in the pound can be expected only if U.S. data comes in weak.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests the 1.3412 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3434 and 1.3468 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below the 1.3412 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3378, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pound is likely to return if U.S. data comes in significantly stronger than expected.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests the 1.3434 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3412 and 1.3378 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1590 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Today's economic data from Germany and Italy strongly encouraged traders, leading to increased demand for the euro. The main surprise came from the ZEW indices. In Germany, the index rose instead of declining as expected. Expectations in the eurozone also exceeded economists' forecasts. Although this sudden surge in optimism is encouraging, it contrasts with the weak performance of the manufacturing sectors in both countries. Germany's Services PMI, for example, barely remained above the 50-point threshold, while Italy's Manufacturing PMI continued to decline, signaling a slowdown in activity. This divergence between future expectations and current conditions highlights the uncertainty that continues to dominate the European economic environment.

In the second half of the day, important U.S. data will be released that could significantly affect trader sentiment. Particular attention will be paid to U.S. building permits and housing starts. These indicators are among the key gauges of activity in the construction sector, which is closely tied to the overall health of the economy. A decline in permits and housing starts may signal a slowdown in residential construction, posing risks to related industries. Conversely, positive figures would be viewed as a sign of continued economic growth and strengthening economic conditions, which could support the U.S. dollar against the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro can be considered when the price reaches the 1.1621 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1663. At 1.1663, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point correction from the entry point. Further euro gains can be expected only if U.S. data comes in weak.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests the 1.1597 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1621 and 1.1663 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1597 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1560, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound.

Pressure on the pair is likely to return if U.S. data comes in strong.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests the 1.1621 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1597 and 1.1560 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

But does the current environment justify entering short? Or do longs remain the priority? That is, as they say, a question with an asterisk.

Briefly, the United States and Iran on Sunday evening said they had agreed a framework memorandum providing for cessation of hostilities and gradual normalization of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. The formal signing of the memorandum is expected to take place in Switzerland later this week—provisionally on Friday, 19 June.

Against such headlines, interest in risk assets, including the euro, increased on currency markets. But as market participants began to appraise the situation in more detail, initial optimism gave way to growing wariness.

The text of the agreement has not been published officially; however, according to incoming leaks, Washington and Tehran may have different views on its content and implementation. Iranian sources report the agreed memorandum is two-staged: the first stage envisages cessation of hostilities, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and easing of some sanctions; the second stage envisages talks on the nuclear program and other most difficult, fundamental issues.

It is this two-step structure that worries traders. The main concern is that the most complex issues have been deferred for later. At the same time statements from US and Iranian representatives are vague and sometimes contradictory. Parameters of the agreement are outlined only in limited form, and the timetable for implementing key provisions remains unclear. One should also take into account the risk of domestic political resistance in Iran and among regional US allies, above all Israel, which has already stated it is not a party to the deal.

Moreover, today there is information that shippers will not resume transits through the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks until they are assured of the deal's reliability. The head of the world's largest tanker operator, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, said restoration of shipping could take several weeks to several months because there have already been several false starts in reopening the waterway. According to the Financial Times, about 500 vessels remain stuck in the Persian Gulf waiting to depart.

In other words, market participants are not rushing to uncork the champagne, continuing to weigh the risks of agreement failure and a protracted restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

But does that mean short positions in EUR/USD are currently the priority? In my view—no. The current fundamental picture does not support a sustainable strengthening of the dollar.

First, neither the United States nor Iran wants to resume full-scale hostilities. Donald Trump is acting with an eye on the forthcoming US midterm congressional elections, where an escalation of foreign policy risks could produce political costs, while the Iranian economy is suffering mounting pressure from restricted shipping and effectively blocked port logistics. In this context it is notable that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the most prominent hawkish faction) cancelled a large missile strike on Israel scheduled for Sunday night after the IDF strike on Beirut. That suggests Tehran is inclined in current conditions to consolidate the agreements reached rather than to escalate further.

In addition, some analysts believe the structure of the agreed deal appears viable and is built on the "first deeds, then talks" principle. That primarily concerns the fate of the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of shipping in the region. One should also not forget that the leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy have signaled willingness to consider lifting sanctions on Iran if Tehran fulfills the conditions of the deal. Put another way, the scale of potential incentives in the form of sanctions relief and economic normalization significantly outweighs the possible costs of renewed escalation.

All this suggests EUR/USD retains upside potential despite lingering doubts and prevailing skepticism. Therefore, southbound pullbacks are appropriate to use as opportunities for opening long positions with the first and, for now, only target at 1.1630—at that price, the lower edge of the Ichimoku Kumo cloud on the D1 timeframe coincides with the upper Bollinger band line on H4.

Today's data from Germany and Italy supported the euro during the first half of the day, with the British pound following suit. Strong ZEW indices undoubtedly encouraged traders, pointing to a potential recovery in the eurozone economy.

However, a closer look at other economic indicators shows that optimism surrounding Iran has yet to be reflected in the actual data. Industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures in Germany and Italy continue to indicate stagnation or even slight deterioration. This creates a disconnect between expectations and current economic conditions, prompting analysts to assess the outlook with caution. As a result, the European economy remains in a state of uncertainty. On the one hand, there are hopes for improvement, supported by positive sentiment and several modest positive developments. On the other hand, fundamental indicators continue to point to persistent challenges.

In the second half of the day, the United States is scheduled to release data on building permits and housing starts. These indicators are among the key measures of activity in the housing market and, consequently, have a significant impact on the overall U.S. economy. An increase in building permits and housing starts typically signals growing confidence among developers, although achieving such growth in the current high-interest-rate environment will be challenging. In turn, stronger activity in the construction sector supports related industries such as building materials manufacturing, logistics, furniture production, and services, contributing to broader economic growth. Conversely, weaker figures may indicate a slowdown in construction activity, likely linked to tighter monetary policy.

If the data comes in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the releases, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1620 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1645 and 1.1664;
• A breakout below 1.1595 may lead to a decline toward 1.1566 and 1.1535;

For GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3435 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3460 and 1.3490;
• A breakout below 1.3410 may lead to a decline toward 1.3380 and 1.3360;

For USD/JPY

• A breakout above 160.40 may lead to dollar growth toward 160.65 and 160.99;
• A breakout below 160.25 may trigger a decline toward 160.02 and 159.80;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Fade Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1629 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1583 followed by a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.3447 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3391 followed by a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 0.7093 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 0.7061 followed by a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.4010 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3985 followed by a return above this level.

The fact that the memorandum of understanding text has not yet been published is putting additional pressure on markets already. The official signing has been postponed until Friday, June 19. At the G7 summit in France the president said the document might become available somewhere after Friday.

The principal contradiction concerns payment for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump insists: "It will be open and free." Iran's Fars news agency reports otherwise: Tehran agreed to free passage only for 60 days, after which it intends to introduce fees. This is a material divergence—it was precisely attempting to monetize transit through the strait in the middle of a war that unnerved markets in recent weeks. If Iran does try to impose charges after two months, the entire negotiating progress would be threatened.

The Lebanon track remains another source of uncertainty. Israel continues operations against Hezbollah, and the US side has stated that withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon is not a condition of the deal. Trump commented, "Hezbollah, we have to have a little talk with them." For markets this means that one of the key points of tension that Iran insists on remains unresolved.

The White House, meanwhile, is circulating talking points to allies emphasizing Trump's readiness to resume strikes if Iran fails to meet conditions.

All this has reduced market optimism despite oil trading down for a fourth consecutive day, rising US equity indexes, and firmer bonds. Oil shippers transiting the Strait of Hormuz are taking a more cautious stance: shipping companies say they need greater clarity before routing vessels through the strait. Trump's words have been dismissed in the sector before—without publication of a concrete text with clear security guarantees, a full restoration of traffic remains a matter of weeks, not days.

Against this backdrop, the currency market responded quickly, reducing demand for risk assets and strengthening the dollar across the board.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should consider taking 1.1600. That would allow a test of 1.1620. From there, the pair could reach 1.1645, although moving beyond that level without support from major participants would be difficult. On the downside, only significant buying interest around 1.1565 is likely to prompt major action from large players. If that support is absent, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1535 or to consider long entries from 1.1505.

As for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound sterling should clear the nearest resistance at 1.3415 to target 1.3440. Advancing above that level may prove difficult, with a further target at 1.3460. If the pair falls, bears will seek to seize control at 1.3385. A decisive break below 1.3385 will likely deal serious damage to bull positions and could push GBP/USD toward 1.3360, with downside extending to 1.3330.

JP Morgan believes that falling oil prices could be a powerful driver of the S&P 500 rally. Brent could drop to $70 per barrel in the coming weeks as the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz would release massive flows of oil. That would lower gasoline costs, prompt Americans to spend more on other goods and services, and accelerate the economy. The bank has called for buying the broad equity index, having only recently advocated tactical caution.

A BlackRock asset manager says that lower geopolitical risk will lead to a flow of capital from money-market funds into equities. Large financial institutions have around $8–9 trillion at their disposal. Such an avalanche of money could push the S&P 500 well above 8,000.

Morgan Stanley also agrees with a continued rally in the broad index. The bank says the end of the armed conflict in the Middle East allows investors to refocus on companies that had been hurt by high oil prices, elevated US Treasury yields, and a strong dollar. Portfolio diversification toward new winners should help the overall stock market.

Meanwhile, the SpaceX frenzy shows no signs of slowing. The issuer's shares climbed another 20% after a 19% rally on the first day of secondary-market trading. By market capitalization, the company is approaching tech giants like Amazon. In an official release, it said it raised $85.7 billion at the IPO, not the $75 billion previously expected.

Despite its success, SpaceX's results don't match the scale of NVIDIA — whose stock jumped 66% on day one — Tesla (+41%), Microsoft (+33%), Apple and Amazon (+31%). Still, strong interest in Elon Musk's company, together with other factors, supports gains in the broad stock index. Only a hawkish surprise from Kevin Warsh could stop the rally, but that currently looks unlikely.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 tested fair value at 7,580. The first attempt failed, but a successful second test would allow earlier long positions to be scaled up. The initial target of 7,700 is approaching and can already be raised to 7,880 and 7,960.

It has emerged that Bitmine Immersion Technologies is aggressively building its Ethereum position despite market pessimism. According to the data, its reserve has grown to 5.62 million Ethereum — 4.66% of the total supply of the world's second-largest cryptocurrency. At roughly $1,718 per coin, that is about $9.66 billion, making the company the largest corporate holder of Ethereum globally and the second-largest corporate crypto holder overall — behind only Strategy's $54 billion Bitcoin position. Over the past week, the firm added 76,881 Ethereum, bringing Bitmine closer to its stated "5% alchemy" goal — controlling 5% of the aggregate 120.7 million token supply, which the company expects to reach during 2026.

Chairman Tom Lee explains the brisk buying simply: current prices do not reflect stronger fundamental network metrics, and he views the downturn as an opportunity. "This is not surprising, given that we are in the early stages of a crypto spring," Lee said. The logic is straightforward: the lower the price, the more Ethereum you can buy with the same capital — and Bitmine is taking advantage of that, increasing its position precisely when most institutional investors are withdrawing funds from Ethereum ETFs.

In addition to Ethereum, the company holds 204 Bitcoin as well as cash and securities of $502 million — a solid cushion for further buying.

Tom Lee is betting that staking yields and fundamental network growth will ultimately outweigh short-term price weakness — and he is backing that bet with real purchases, not just talk of a $250,000 target for Ethereum. Importantly, on paper, the company is currently reporting losses in the billions, and if the crypto market and Ethereum fall further (as many analysts predict), things could turn sour, and the crypto spring could become a long crypto winter.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a reclaim of $67,700, which would open a direct path to $69,400 and put $71,400 within reach; breaking above that level would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected around $65,800. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $63,600. The furthest downside target would be the $61,100 area.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,838 would open a direct path to $1,901. The more distant target is the $1,963 high, and a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,763. A move back below that level could quickly push ETH toward $1,686. The furthest downside target would be the $1,615 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

However, today global markets took a pause after three consecutive sessions with gains of more than 1%. The MSCI All?Country World Index swung between slight gains and losses, and US stock futures ticked down a bit after the S&P 500 gained 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.1% on Monday. Brent crude fell below $83 per barrel.

The Iran story meanwhile saw a new development. Donald Trump and JD Vance signed an electronic copy of a memorandum of understanding with Iran, and the president told Emmanuel Macron at their meeting that the strait is already partly open and will be fully open on Friday. An official signing ceremony is scheduled in Switzerland that same day. That, however, is the easiest part so far — the key question is whether the ceasefire will hold and whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz can truly normalize, given the need for demining, production restoration, and replenishment of depleted inventories.

Besides, today the Federal Reserve is starting a policy meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh. The funds rate is expected to remain unchanged, but the main intrigue will be the tone of his first press conference. If Warsh reduces reliance on forward guidance about future moves, policy changes themselves could become a source of volatility. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are also expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

The Bank of Japan today raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level since 1995. The decision met market expectations, and the reaction was muted: the yen strengthened moderately, and the Nikkei recovered.

Technically for the S&P 500, buyers' primary task today is to overcome the immediate resistance at 7,574. That would confirm upside momentum and open the way for a push toward 7,607. Controlling 7,637 is another priority for bulls, as it would strengthen their position. If prices move lower amid weakening risk appetite, buyers need to defend around 7,544. A break below that level would likely push the instrument down quickly to 7,518 and open the path to 7,494.

Meanwhile, Crypto Super Hub co?founder Jake Pahor noticed a very interesting tendency in investor behavior at different times. Mr. Pahor noted that investors are willing to buy Bitcoin at any price when they see a strong rise, without considering that the rise may end soon. At the same time, when Bitcoin falls to critically low levels but there is no strong recovery, nobody rushes to buy. Pahor noted that in February the price of Bitcoin fell to $60,000, but client activity on his exchange dropped to minimal levels. Three months later, when Bitcoin was trading at $80,000, activity increased, and investors started buying.

Thus, most investors in the leading cryptocurrency act impulsively, on emotion, rather than based on a clear strategy. Mr. Pahor noted that the current movements of Bitcoin are very similar to the 2018 bear cycle. In 2018, Bitcoin formed a bottom around $6,000, then produced a correction, and afterwards crashed even further — to $3,200. Therefore, the conclusion is simple: a Bitcoin rise without a bullish cycle is a correction. After the correction finishes, the primary movement resumes. That is why we always say you should buy on an uptrend, not try to catch the market bottom. At present, there are no signs of a beginning uptrend on the daily timeframe (TF).

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a full downtrend with counter-trend corrections. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), and there are still no signs of an uptrend beginning. The last bearish FVG pattern formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area, so that area serves as a POI for short positions for the coming weeks. On the 4-hour TF, the cryptocurrency may correct soon, so if traders wish to trade against the trend, they can consider small longs from bullish patterns.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily TF, a downtrend that began in August last year is still in progress. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the movement triggered by this signal can be strong and prolonged. We do not believe it is over, since there are no signs of a downtrend ending for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near term, Ethereum may resume its decline with targets at $1,391 and $788 if Bitcoin reacts to the bearish FVG on the daily TF. Until that happens, on the 4-hour TF, it is acceptable to consider small longs from bullish patterns. The nearest pattern was a bullish FVG in the $1,721–$1,771 area, which has already played out.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward at this stage. The most recently completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous peak. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish. Geopolitical developments improved significantly over the weekend, as Donald Trump announced an agreement with Iran, and both Iran and Pakistan confirmed this information. As a result, the conflict may be resolved in the near future, giving bulls an opportunity to continue their advance.

There were few important economic events worldwide on Monday. In the European Union, April industrial production data was released but failed to show a strong result. In addition, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech. The ECB President stated that inflation in the euro area is becoming increasingly visible across nearly all sectors of the economy and is no longer an isolated issue confined to the energy market. According to Lagarde, the second wave of the inflationary spiral has begun, reflected in rising prices for goods and services. First, fuel and energy prices increase; then manufacturers raise prices; afterward, prices rise in retail networks and the services sector. Europe is currently experiencing this final stage. Christine Lagarde stopped short of explicitly calling for monetary policy tightening in July, but such a decision appears increasingly justified, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the near future and energy prices stabilize. Therefore, the ECB may raise interest rates again at its July meeting, although this has so far provided little support for the euro.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and began advancing within a downward trend channel toward its upper boundary. A rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1667 would keep the pair inside the downward channel. Consolidation above the channel would allow traders to expect the development of a full-fledged bullish trend, with initial targets at 1.1746 and 1.1824. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 15,878 long positions and opened 19,056 short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran. Over the past eleven weeks, the situation has balanced out amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East, and bulls have once again regained dominance. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 219,000, compared with 205,000 short positions.

Overall, from a long-term perspective, major market participants continue to view the euro favorably. Naturally, various global events—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, movements in the euro and the U.S. dollar will depend less on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, or on economic data, and more on developments in Iran.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 16 contains three events, none of which are considered highly significant. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal or nonexistent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered if the pair closes below 1.1578 on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1514. Long positions may be opened on a rebound from 1.1578, with a target at 1.1630.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

It appears that news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran has bolstered demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the company Strategy continues to impress, proving that it is not ready to back down. According to an 8-K report filed with the SEC on Monday, from June 8 to 14, the company acquired an additional 1,587 bitcoins for approximately $100 million at an average price of $63,024 per coin. Following this transaction, the company's total reserve reached 846,842 bitcoins, valued at around $56 billion, purchased at an average price of $75,656 per coin—about $64.1 billion after accounting for fees. Simple arithmetic reveals a painful reality: at current prices, Strategy's position is at a loss of approximately $8.1 billion. Nonetheless, the company continues to buy back—this marks the second consecutive week, following a symbolic sale of 32 coins at the end of May, which sparked a wave of rumors about financial difficulties but appeared more like market manipulation aimed at creating a panic sell so it could buy back at lower prices.

As long as the market accepts this strategy, Strategy can continue to accumulate positions even in a declining market. However, if Bitcoin prices continue to decline towards the $53,000 mark, as CryptoQuant warned, and demand for MSTR shares weakens, this mechanism may start to work in reverse. The average entry price of $75,656, compared with the current $65,000, shows how high the stakes are in this game.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $66,500, with a target for growth to the level of $67,300. At around $67,300, I intend to exit my purchases and sell immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy Bitcoin from the lower bound of $66,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to levels $66,500 and $67,300.

Sell Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching the entry level of $66,100, targeting a drop to $65,300. At around $65,300, I intend to exit my sales and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell Bitcoin from the upper bound of $66,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to levels $66,100 and $65,300.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,777, with a target for growth to the level of $1,807. At around $1,807, I intend to exit my purchases and sell immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy Ethereum at the lower bound of $1,713 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to $1,725 and $1,745.

Sell Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching the entry point around $1,713, targeting a drop to $1,695. At around $1,695, I intend to exit my sales and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell Ethereum from the upper bound of $1,725 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to the levels of $1,713 and $1,695.

The wave structure has turned bullish, as the market has begun to believe in the possibility of an agreement between Iran and the United States. The most recently completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous peak. If an agreement is signed before the end of the week and neither side violates the ceasefire or withdraws from negotiations, the bulls may continue their offensive. However, at present, their momentum appears weak and unconvincing.

The news background on Monday was fairly limited apart from geopolitical developments. In the United States, the industrial production report was released but failed to deliver the result traders had hoped for. Earlier in the day, it became known that an agreement between Iran and the United States could be reached as early as Friday. However, according to experts, full restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely in the near term. In addition, the agreement between Iran and the United States does not take Israel's interests into account, while the nuclear issue remains unresolved. In my view, the agreement between Iran and the United States appears somewhat formal and has limited practical impact. The Strait of Hormuz may reopen, but safe navigation through it is unlikely to be fully restored anytime soon, while rebuilding the region's damaged oil and gas infrastructure will take months. A preliminary agreement may be signed, but it does not resolve the nuclear issue that triggered the conflict in the first place. Iran and the United States may end hostilities, but what about the conflict between Lebanon and Israel? Therefore, too many questions remain unanswered. Traders doubt that a lasting peace between Iran and the United States—and in the Middle East as a whole—is achievable.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and advanced toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a moderate decline toward 1.3327. Consolidation above 1.3429 would increase the likelihood of a continued rise in the British pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,944, while the number of short positions increased by 4,051. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 46,000 versus 109,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had adjusted to expectations of a prolonged conflict, but recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be quick or straightforward.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• U.S. – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 16 contains only one event that I do not consider significant. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be absent or extremely limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. The first target has been reached, and these positions may be held with the second target in view. Long positions may be considered today if the pair closes above 1.3408, with targets at 1.3454–1.3466 and 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

The paradox of gold in this war is well-known—and it persists even now. The metal has lost about 18% since the conflict began, despite conventional wisdom saying it should rise as a safe-haven asset. The logic remains the same as all along: high oil prices fueled inflation, inflation kept interest rates high, and high rates put more pressure on the non-yielding metal than geopolitical fears supported it.

Now, this chain is starting to unwind in the opposite direction: WTI crude has dropped to around $81, and Brent is around $83. If the opening of the strait leads to a sustained decline in oil prices, inflation expectations will weaken, pressure on rates will ease, and gold will have room to recover.

I would like to note that many companies estimate that gold and silver remain undervalued compared to their reactions during past Middle Eastern conflicts. If the peace agreement proves to be durable, traders are expected to reduce sales and return to viewing the metal as an alternative to US assets and the dollar. This is a long-term bullish thesis—and it works regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz opens.

In the short term, everything will be determined by the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Traders still lean towards a rate hike by the end of the year, and the tone of Kevin Warsh's first press conference will dictate how much these expectations shift. A tough signal will renew pressure on gold. However, if Warsh indicates that falling oil prices change the inflation outlook, the metal will gain additional momentum.

Silver is trading at around $69.87 after a 2.9% rise the previous day. Platinum and palladium have decreased slightly.

Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4372. This will allow them to target $4432, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $4481 area. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4304. If they succeed, breaking this range will deliver a significant blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4249, potentially reaching $4186.

Goldman Sachs now expects that exports from the Persian Gulf will reach pre-war levels by the end of July—a month earlier than the previous forecast. Morgan Stanley has cut its Brent forecast for the third quarter from $100 to $90 and for the fourth quarter by $15 to $80. According to their estimates, production will recover to 50% by September and 80% by December.

However, the market remains cautious—and with good reason. The text of the memorandum has yet to be published. Shipping companies and traders state that they require greater clarity before sending vessels through the strait: security issues, operational rules, and the actual cost of passage remain unresolved. Other companies are even more skeptical. Estimates suggest it will take several months for traffic to return to pre-war levels.

While the bullish signal for oil still exists, its intensity has noticeably decreased. Meanwhile, US strategic oil reserves have dropped to the lowest level since 1983. Recent supply shortages have been real, and replenishing them will take time.

For the Federal Reserve, the decline in oil prices comes at an ideal moment—right ahead of the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. If oil holds at current levels, inflationary pressure will begin to decline faster than forecasts, giving the new chairman room for a softer rhetoric.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $81.40. This will allow targeting $86.67, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $92.54. In the event of a price drop, bears will attempt to take control at $74.85. If they succeed, breaking this range will deliver a significant blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $67.77, with the prospect of falling to $59.90.

The price test at 160.20 occurred when the MACD indicator was well above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Today, the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to its highest level since 1995 and indicated that further normalization of monetary policy will follow. This took place at a meeting convened without the BoJ's head present. The report stated that the central bank has raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1%. It was also announced that the bank will maintain its bond purchases at around 2 trillion yen ($12.5 billion) per month, starting from April 2027, indicating an end to the reduction in purchase volumes, which partially mitigates the rigidity regarding interest rates, so a significant drop in the USD/JPY pair did not occur. Initially, this decision strengthened the yen against the US dollar, but it later weakened again as discussions about the US-Iran deal took a negative turn. The lack of specifics and details about the agreement is making traders nervous. For this reason, in the short term, further growth in the USD/JPY pair is expected.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 160.37 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 160.71 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 160.71, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 160.17 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to opposing levels of 160.37 and 160.71.

Sell Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level at 160.17 (the red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.80, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment; any hint from the central bank is all that is needed. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 160.37 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 160.17 and 159.80.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3435 coincided with the MACD indicator being well above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test at 1.3435 triggered Sell Scenario #2 for the pound, resulting in a 20-pip decline in the pair.

The US and Iran have yet to publish the text of the memorandum of understanding, leading to a return of demand for the dollar and pressure on the British pound. This uncertainty surrounding the potential peace agreement is creating nervousness in financial markets as traders try to assess the real implications and potential benefits for the global economy. The lack of clear details, as has happened several times before, fuels speculation and heightens volatility, prompting investors to reassess risk.

Given that no important reports are scheduled for the UK today, the pound may easily continue to decline. The absence of fresh macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom deprives traders of reasons to take new positions, meaning existing trends may continue to develop. The recent decline in the pound, likely driven by broader market uncertainty and sustained demand for the US dollar, could lead to a more sustained correction.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.3405 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3449 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3449, I intend to exit my long positions and sell immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). We can only expect growth in the pound today following positive news from the Middle East. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3383 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.3405 and 1.3449.

Sell Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3383 level (the red line on the chart) is breached, triggering a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3355, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3405 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 1.3383 and 1.3355.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1598 coincided with the MACD indicator well below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Traders seem to be tired of Donald Trump's statements regarding preliminary peace agreements with Iran. The market craves specifics and details of the concluded deal, which are still absent. This uncertainty is putting noticeable pressure on the euro while simultaneously boosting demand for the US dollar. The lack of clear details fuels speculation and uncertainty, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see stance.

Traders and analysts are currently closely monitoring each move from the White House, trying to predict what concessions might have been made to Iran and how this will affect the geopolitical situation in the region. In particular, questions arise regarding the sanctions regime, which, according to rumors, may be eased in exchange for certain guarantees from Tehran, something Israel strongly opposes.

In the first half of the day, attention will shift to Italy's consumer price index data, which may significantly influence the European Central Bank's inflation expectations for the eurozone. At the same time, traders' attention will be drawn to the business sentiment indices for Germany and the eurozone from the ZEW institute. These leading indicators reflect business expectations regarding future economic activity. Negative dynamics or figures below expectations could add further pressure on the euro, signaling a potential slowdown in economic growth in key eurozone economies.

If the published data is weaker than expected, the pressure on the euro will only increase. This could trigger a decline of the euro to new local lows, especially if these releases coincide with general market nervousness or new negative news from the Middle East.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches around 1.1590 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1619. At point 1.1619, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). We can only expect euro growth after strong eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1569 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.1590 and 1.1619.

Sell Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1569 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1545, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return in case of very weak reports. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1590 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease to opposing levels of 1.1569 and 1.1545.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

It appears that Trump's statements about reaching a preliminary peace agreement with Iran are no longer enough for traders. The lack of specifics creates uncertainty, and uncertainty is the main enemy of financial markets. In periods of information vacuum, traders prefer to transfer funds to more reliable assets, such as the dollar, thereby avoiding the volatility associated with emerging markets and risk currencies. The euro, being one of the most liquid and actively traded currencies, responds sensitively to such sentiments, demonstrating weakness.

Delays in disclosing details may indicate the complexity of the reached agreements or the presence of internal disagreements that still need to be resolved.

Today, the focus will shift to the consumer price index data from Italy, the ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the eurozone, and the current situation index for Germany. The consumer price index data from Italy holds primary importance. This is one of the key indicators of inflation in the largest economy of the eurozone, and its dynamics directly influence the European Central Bank's expectations regarding future monetary policy. If the indicator shows a slowdown in growth or a decline, it could lead to reduced risks, which would put pressure on the euro.

Next, traders will turn their attention to the business sentiment indices from the authoritative ZEW institute for Germany and the eurozone. These leading indicators reflect business expectations. The ZEW report helps assess how optimistic or pessimistic German and European entrepreneurs are about the future state of the economy. Negative numbers indicating a deterioration in expectations could serve as a warning signal for traders, foreshadowing a possible decline in business activity and, consequently, a weakening of the euro.

As for the pound, there are again no important reports scheduled for the United Kingdom today. The lack of significant macroeconomic data capable of reversing the negative trend leaves the currency vulnerable to external factors and market sentiment. Traders are likely to continue locking in profits from long positions, thereby increasing pressure on the British currency. The key factors that could support the pound remain high inflation and the high likelihood that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this week.

Geopolitical tension and global geopolitical risks also continue to put pressure on risk assets.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is the most appropriate.

Momentum Strategy (on Breakouts):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Long positions on a breakout of level 1.1595 may lead to an increase in the euro to the area of 1.1620 and 1.1645;

Short positions on a breakout of level 1.1566 may lead to a decline in the euro to the area of 1.1535 and 1.1506;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Longs on a breakout of level 1.3415 may lead to an increase in the pound to the area of 1.3441 and 1.3462;

Shorts on a breakout of level 1.3388 may lead to a decline in the pound to the area of 1.3359 and 1.3331;

For the USD/JPY Pair

Longs on a breakout of level 160.24 may lead to an increase in the dollar to the area of 160.43 and 160.67;

Shorts on a breakout of level 160.02 may lead to a drop in the dollar to the area of 159.83 and 159.60;

Mean Reversion Strategy (on Retracements):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1597 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1564 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3418 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3375 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7065 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.7040 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4023 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3996 on a return to this level;

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and none of them are important. In Germany and the European Union, the ZEW economic expectations indices will be released, while the US will see the weekly ADP report, as well as reports on building permit issuance and housing starts. We consider all this data secondary, and Monday showed that the market is in no hurry to open positions ahead of the meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the signing of the deal between Iran and the US.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing to highlight among the fundamental events for Tuesday. The European Central Bank meeting took place last week, but the rate hike did not impress the market. The euro did not appreciate, and the market simply ignored this event and Christine Lagarde's speech, which could be considered "hawkish." The Fed and BoE meetings are scheduled for this week, so members of the Monetary Committees cannot comment on monetary policy at this time. It is likely that both central banks will keep key interest rates unchanged.

The geopolitical backdrop is gradually improving, but traders only have another statement from Trump about the end of the war, the conclusion of a deal, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to work with. Will this information be confirmed? That will determine whether the US dollar continues to decline. Let us remind you that the US president has been promising a deal with Iran for two months. In most cases, this information has not been confirmed. Therefore, the market reacted positively to Trump's statements on Monday night, but cautiously. Even if the agreement is signed on Friday, the market doubts that it will be long-lasting and that the parties involved will be able to find a way out of the deadlock regarding the "nuclear question."

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite sluggishly as geopolitical news did not impress them on Monday, and no important reports are scheduled for today. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1584-1.1594, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.