A lot of strange things have been happening on Forex recently. The US dollar should have strengthened substantially due to its safe-haven status, the strength of the US economy, and the rising odds of Fed monetary tightening. The gap in real yields in debt markets signals that EUR/USD should be trading considerably lower.

EUR/USD dynamics and the sovereign yield differential

For some reason, the greenback has not revealed its potential. Does that mean it will weaken rapidly if it loses a trump card like geopolitics? The main currency pair's reaction to the growing likelihood of an imminent US-Iran peace deal shows that this is not the case.

Nordea Markets believes EUR/USD will rise in the medium term. The main restraining factors could be a stronger US economy relative to Europe, a hawkish-leaning Fed, and, finally, a protracted Middle East conflict. Judging by its likely swift resolution, one of the barriers to the euro's move north will soon be behind it.

At the same time, falling oil prices remove the second obstacle — US inflation likely peaked in May and should soon begin to decelerate following lower oil and gasoline prices. The transitory nature of high energy prices has led Bloomberg experts to abandon their earlier forecast of a federal funds rate hike. Now 32 of 35 economists expect the Fed to extend the pause until mid-2027, after which it will ease policy twice — in July and September next year.

Fed funds rate dynamics and futures?market forecasts

This view contradicts the signals from the futures market, which still expects monetary tightening in 2026. At the time of the US inflation print, the odds reached 75%. They have now fallen to just above 50%. In theory, that should significantly weaken the US dollar.

But just as the US currency was reluctant to rise in favorable conditions, it is not in a hurry to fall in unfavorable ones. Perhaps EUR/USD is waiting for the US stock market open.

Technically, the daily chart for the main currency pair showed a rebound from dynamic resistance in the form of a moving average. However, as long as EUR/USD remains above the pivot level of 1.1555, the bulls are in control. Traders should focus on building long positions in the euro against the US dollar.

The logic behind the short-term pessimism is clear. If a peace agreement between the US and Iran is signed in the coming days — and Trump has said as much — oil will fall, inflation expectations will ease, and bets on Fed rate hikes will be pushed further out. All of this relieves pressure on gold, but the metal is already trading below its 200-day moving average, which sparks algorithmic selling — the technical factor amplifying the fundamental one.

UBS, however, remains bullish on a one?year horizon — a fundamental difference from the short-term view. The long-term thesis rests on three pillars: Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year as inflationary pressures abate, a consequent weakening of the dollar, and continued purchases by global central banks. The last factor is perhaps the most durable: the People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 19 consecutive months, and this structural demand will not disappear with shifts in the geopolitical backdrop.

Importantly, the divergence between big banks' short- and long-term views is a signal to traders about the character of the move ahead. A pullback to $4,000–$3,850 is quite possible absent a peace deal with Iran, but it would create an entry point for those betting on the longer-term scenario of monetary easing and reserve diversification by central banks.

As for the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to take out near-term resistance at $4,249. That would allow a target of $4,304, above which a breakout would be rather difficult. The final target sits around $4,372. If gold falls, bears will try to seize control of $4,186. If they succeed, a breakdown of that range would deal a heavy blow to bullish positions and push gold down to $4,124, with the potential to reach $4,062.

The price test at 160.25 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 160.02.

Given the tense situation surrounding possible intervention by the Bank of Japan in the yen exchange rate, traders are tending to adopt a more cautious, wait-and-see approach. In the near term, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data are expected, which could trigger a spike in market volatility. However, attention is likely to remain focused on developments in the potential peace settlement between the United States and Iran.

Despite uncertainty regarding the specific terms of a possible agreement, the very fact that active negotiations are taking place is already having a noticeable impact on the market, reflected in yen buying against the dollar and a decline in USD/JPY.

For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 160.22 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 160.60 (thicker green line). At 160.60, I will exit long positions and consider opening short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Any upward movement in the pair today is only likely in the case of strong U.S. data. Important: before buying, ensure that MACD is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

Buying USD/JPY is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 159.98, while MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 160.22 and 160.60 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.98 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.70, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Selling pressure may return in the case of central bank intervention. Important: before selling, ensure that MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

Selling USD/JPY is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 160.22, while MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 159.98 and 159.70 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very cautiously. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is, by definition, a losing intraday strategy.

The price test at 1.3393 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited further downward potential for the pair.

The British pound, already under pressure due to uncertainty stemming from the situation in the Middle East, received an additional blow. A slowdown in economic growth of 0.1% last month, although modest, has become a warning signal for traders. Particularly concerning is the stagnation in industrial production, which points to weakness in the real sector of the economy.

The currency market reacted immediately. The British pound began to decline, reflecting growing concerns about the outlook for the UK economy. This decline, while not catastrophic, nonetheless increases pressure on the currency and may trigger further selling.

Looking ahead, attention will focus on several key U.S. events. In particular, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data are expected. These indicators typically reflect the state of the U.S. economy from the perspective of households and can significantly influence market sentiment.

However, in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, market participants are likely to focus primarily on developments surrounding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Any information related to progress in negotiations—whether direct talks, interim agreements, or renewed setbacks—could trigger significant movements in the currency market.

For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3426 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3455 (thicker green line). At 1.3455, I will exit long positions and consider opening short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Any further pound appreciation today is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: before buying, ensure that MACD is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

Buying the pound is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3400, while MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 1.3426 and 1.3455 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the pound after a breakdown below 1.3400 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3355, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Selling pressure may return in the case of strong U.S. data. Important: before selling, ensure that MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

Selling the pound is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3426, while MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3400 and 1.3355 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very cautiously. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is, by definition, a losing intraday strategy.

The price test at 1.1579 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro in continuation of yesterday's upward movement. However, no major market rally followed.

Inflation data from Germany and Italy matched economists' forecasts, which limited euro volatility. In Germany, the Consumer Price Index declined, while in Italy it increased. The market reacted with restrained optimism. Moderate buying interest in the euro was observed, allowing it to recover only part of its morning losses.

Looking ahead, we will see the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. High readings of this index typically signal that households are more willing to spend, invest, and take financial risks, which is positive for both the economy and the U.S. dollar. Conversely, low readings may indicate slowing consumer spending, a greater tendency to save, and a more cautious financial approach. In addition to the sentiment index, close attention will be paid to inflation expectations. If expectations for rising prices remain elevated, this may encourage consumers to bring forward purchases, which paradoxically can further increase inflationary pressure.

For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, euro purchases can be considered at a price around 1.1591 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1639. At 1.1639, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth is only likely in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

Buying the euro is also considered in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.1571, when the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 1.1591 and 1.1639 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

Selling the euro is planned after reaching 1.1571 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1510, where I plan to exit and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from that level). Pressure on the pair may increase in the case of a sharp rise in inflation. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

Selling the euro is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1591, when the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1571 and 1.1510 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice

Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if risk management is not applied and large volumes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing intraday strategy.

German and Italian inflation data fully matched economists' forecasts, showing a decline of 0.2% and an increase of 0.1% respectively, which supported the euro with modest gains in the first half of the day. This cautious optimism in the markets was reinforced by expectations of further interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank. Despite the slight increase, the euro remains under pressure due to ongoing uncertainty in the global economy and the situation in the Middle East.

Looking ahead, we will receive data on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. However, the main focus will remain on further developments in the potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Although the details of a possible deal remain unclear, the very fact of active negotiations is already having a noticeable impact on the markets. Any sign of progress in bridging positions could trigger a sharp rally in risk assets, which would support the euro and the pound.

As for economic data, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will not be ignored. Traders always react sensitively to changes in the macroeconomic environment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a key indicator measuring consumers' optimism or pessimism regarding their financial situation and the overall state of the economy. High readings typically support the U.S. dollar and its appreciation.

Alongside the sentiment index, special attention will be given to inflation expectations data. Consumers' ability to accurately anticipate future inflation plays an important role. If inflation expectations are high, consumers may accelerate purchases, which paradoxically can further strengthen inflationary pressure.

In the case of strong data releases, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.1590 targeting 1.1625 and 1.1645
• Sell breakout below 1.1560 targeting 1.1535 and 1.1500

GBP/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.3424 targeting 1.3452 and 1.3478
• Sell breakout below 1.3388 targeting 1.3359 and 1.3331

USD/JPY

• Buy breakout above 160.25 targeting 160.43 and 160.67
• Sell breakout below 160.00 targeting 159.80 and 159.60

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.1605, on a return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakdown below 1.1558, on a return above this level

GBP/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3436, on a return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakdown below 1.3390, on a return above this level

AUD/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 0.7066, on a return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakdown below 0.7024, on a return above this level

USD/CAD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3997, on a return below this level
• Buy after a failed breakdown below 1.3967, on a return above this level

Nagel left little room for interpretation. He said the effects of the war with Iran were large and persistent and that a rate rise would be necessary even if conditions improved quickly. In other words, the ECB is acting not only reactively but preventively: high energy prices are already feeding into core inflation, and it is far harder to extinguish the fire ex post. That, Nagel said, makes it impossible to simply ignore developments. ECB president Christine Lagarde made a similar point yesterday, identifying the same issue as a primary threat to the economy.

The IMF backed the approach on the same day. The fund called for further tightening to contain the inflation shock and projected a cumulative 50 basis points of rate increases this year—that is, one more 25 basis point step after June. That projection aligns with market pricing: the second increase is currently expected in September.

Not everyone on the Governing Council is equally hawkish. Slovenia's representative, Klemen Dolenc, said the June hike was sufficient for now and would allow the ECB to consider the broader situation at subsequent meetings. That is a more cautious stance and reflects the real trade-off the regulator faces: inflation above 3%, falling business activity, and GDP contraction in the first quarter.

For the euro, Nagel's hawkish signal combined with IMF support creates a moderately positive backdrop. If July's meeting does result in a second hike, the rate gap between the euro area and the United States will narrow — an argument in favor of the euro against the dollar over the medium term. However, all of this depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming days—in the event of a peace agreement that restores shipping, the hawkish narrative could become obsolete much faster than the IMF expects.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should focus on taking 1.1580. That level would allow a test of 1.1615. From there, the pair could reach 1.1645, although advancing beyond that point without support from large participants will be difficult. The farther target is the high near 1.1665. On the downside, only substantive buying interest around 1.1555 is likely to prompt significant action from major buyers. If that support is absent, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1530 or to consider long entries from 1.1505.

Gold (XAU/USD) remained below the $4,260 resistance level during the early European session on Friday, while holding above the lowest level since November recorded the previous day. Conflicting rhetoric regarding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran has boosted demand for the U.S. dollar, which remains a key factor weighing on precious metal prices.

Additional pressure comes from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which continues to encourage capital flows away from non-yielding assets such as gold.

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had already been reached and that a final document could be signed in the near future, possibly over the weekend. However, that optimism quickly faded after Iranian officials denied that a final agreement had been reached. Moreover, reports indicate that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, rejected the agreement proposed by the United States.

The situation has been further complicated by statements from Iran's Foreign Ministry indicating that several key issues remain unresolved, including control over the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of blocked assets, according to Fars News Agency.

Tensions have also increased following reports that Iranian forces blocked the passage of a tanker through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz without prior coordination, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Tehran's position. At the same time, Fox News reported that U.S. forces intercepted and destroyed two Iranian attack drones near the strait. These developments continue to support the geopolitical risk premium, keeping oil prices elevated and reinforcing inflation concerns.

Against this backdrop, signs of renewed inflationary pressure are emerging in the United States, strengthening the case for maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data released earlier this week pointed to a renewed acceleration in inflation, reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by year-end. This continues to support the U.S. dollar and increase pressure on gold.

Nevertheless, market participants may refrain from aggressively opening new short positions in XAU/USD, preferring to wait for further developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Even so, the precious metal remains on track to post a second consecutive week of notable losses.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a short-term bearish bias, remaining below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Momentum indicators remain in negative territory, suggesting that bears continue to hold the upper hand. Resistance remains at $4,260, while key support is located at $4,015.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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From a technical perspective, gold maintains a short-term bearish bias despite the current recovery, remaining below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Friday's volatility appears to be primarily driven by short-covering activity.

The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, with its histogram positioned below the signal line and continuing to print negative readings. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating near the 30 level, which marks the boundary of the oversold zone, indicating that downward pressure remains in place despite the partial recovery from recent lows.

In terms of resistance levels, the nearest resistance zone is located between $4,230 and $4,260, followed by the psychological $4,300 level and the 200-day EMA and SMA, which represent more significant barriers. A break above this area would open the way for further gains.

On the support side, the key level remains the recent low near $4,015. A break below this level could signal the development of a deeper corrective decline.

The rally followed President Donald Trump's statement that the United States had ended the war with Iran. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 3.5%— its largest gain in two months — while South Korea's Kospi surged 8.4%. Futures on US indexes point to a continuation of the rally, and European markets are priced to open about 1.8% higher. Brent crude fell about 2% to roughly $88.50 a barrel.

Trump said talks had taken place at the highest levels of Iranian leadership and suggested a signing could occur this weekend in Europe with Vice President Vance attending. The shift was sharp: a few hours earlier he had threatened new strikes on Iran and seizure of its oil infrastructure. Iran has not yet officially confirmed any agreement — the Fars news agency reported that the text has not been approved — which suggests markets are buying hope rather than a signed document, an important caveat for those who have seen this scenario repeat over recent months.

The bond market reaction was instructive. Fed hike expectations shifted from December of this year to the first quarter of 2027 — falling oil prices reduce the inflation narrative and with it pressure on the Federal Reserve. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.46%. If an agreement is indeed signed over the weekend, Kevin Warsh will face a materially more comfortable backdrop for his first FOMC meeting on Monday–Tuesday: energy-driven inflation should begin to ease, making a tough message to markets less inevitable.

A second major theme of the week is the SpaceX IPO. The company was priced at $135 a share, implying a valuation of $1.77 trillion, and raised $75 billion in the largest IPO in history. Derivatives on online platforms point to a market capitalization near $2.4 trillion on day one of trading — the market is pricing more than a 35 percent gain from the offering price.

SpaceX is only the start of the wave. Anthropic and OpenAI appear to be preparing for public listings as well. Combined with a possible end to the Iran war, this could provide a very strong fundamental base for the second half of the year — if, and only if, negotiations result in a signed agreement this weekend.

A technical outlook for the S&P 500 suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome resistance at $7,381. Doing so will demonstrate upside momentum and open the way to $7,404. Maintaining control above $7,427 would further strengthen the buyers' case. If downside pressure materializes on a fall in risk appetite, buyers must defend the $7,355 area. A break below that level will quickly push the instrument back to $7,339 and open the path to $7,319.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The most recently completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak, while the latest downward wave (which is still developing) broke the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains bearish. Bulls may launch a new offensive only if Iran and the United States reach an interim agreement, cease violating the terms of the ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Without these developments, further appreciation of the euro will be extremely difficult.

There was no shortage of important global events on Thursday. In my view, the most significant was the ECB meeting, as the eurozone regulator tightened monetary policy for the first time in the past three years. I believe this event should have been a major market catalyst. However, it seems I was the only one who held that view. The euro received no support from traders following the interest rate increase, and market participants largely ignored both the rate hike and Christine Lagarde's remarks regarding the possibility of continued policy tightening through the end of the year.

The ECB President stated that several scenarios remain possible regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and the most pessimistic of them would force the Monetary Policy Committee to continue tightening policy. Inflation remains elevated and continues to show upward pressure due to rising energy prices. If the conflict between Iran and the United States persists, oil and natural gas prices are likely to continue increasing, fueling further inflationary pressures.

Thus, the ECB did more than simply raise interest rates in June—it effectively initiated a new monetary tightening cycle. In my view, this should have provided a strong reason for bulls to take action. However, they only became active after comments from Donald Trump, who reversed his previous stance on military action against Iran and once again spoke about the possibility of reaching an agreement in the near future.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1667 and resumed its decline within a descending trend channel. A consolidation above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1569 would support further gains in the euro toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1667. I will begin to consider a bullish trend only after the euro closes above the channel. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 12,387 Long positions and closed 7,053 Short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war involving Iran, while over the past ten weeks the balance has stabilized amid a pause in hostilities in the Middle East.

The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 235,000, while Short positions amount to 186,000. The gap is once again widening in favor of the bulls.

Overall, large market participants continue to maintain a favorable long-term outlook on the euro. Naturally, global events of various kinds—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains firmly focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, the direction of the euro and the dollar will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, or on economic data, and more on developments involving Iran.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

The June 12 economic calendar contains only one event, which is unlikely to be considered significant. As a result, the impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be very limited or absent altogether.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.1578 level, targeting 1.1514. New short positions may be considered upon another rebound from 1.1578 with the same target. Long positions could be initiated following a rebound from 1.1514, targeting 1.1578. Additional long positions may be considered after a close above 1.1578, targeting 1.1630.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

From a technical standpoint, the absence of positive news from the Middle East could lead to a renewed drop in gold prices.

Technical Analysis and Trading Idea:

The price is currently below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, below the 5-period SMA, but still above the 14-period SMA. The RSI is below the 50% level and is moving horizontally. The Stochastic is turning downward.

I believe it is worth selling gold after a decline below 4150.50, with a potential drop to 4111.80.

As soon as Trump declared for what seems like the 34th time the end of the war with Iran, the markets exploded. "Today, we ended the war with Iran," the president stated during his evening tele-town hall, adding, "We got everything we wanted."

This led to a significant drop in the dollar against a number of risk assets. Just yesterday morning, Trump promised to deliver a "very strong" blow to Iran and threatened to seize the country's oil infrastructure. By the evening of the same day, he announced the end of the strikes and said that Iran's supreme leader had agreed to a deal. According to Axios, the memorandum of understanding includes a 60-day truce (inclusive of Lebanon), immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz without payment for passage, easing sanctions on Iran, and lifting the American naval blockade. Nuclear negotiations will continue during the truce. Trump characterized this document as a very strong memorandum of understanding, albeit somewhat conceptual.

It is worth noting that the Iranian side has not officially confirmed this. The Fars agency reported that the text of the agreement has not yet been approved by officials. Notably, among the leaders Trump spoke with on the phone—UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel, Turkey—Iran is absent. Sources indicate that negotiations are ongoing, with Qatar playing a key role, and that both sides are using military exchanges as leverage—meaning the recent strikes were part of the negotiating process, not its conclusion.

Israel has also outlined its red lines. Netanyahu conveyed to Trump that the final agreement must include the removal of enriched uranium, dismantling enrichment infrastructure, restrictions on missile production, and cessation of Iranian support for regional proxies. This is a serious agenda for the negotiations, which, according to Trump, should conclude this weekend in Europe, with Vice President Vance's participation.

All this indicates that the market is once again trading on hope—and doing so with enthusiasm. However, those who have been following this story for the past four months remember that Trump has repeatedly declared a deal imminent, only for it to fall through. The key disagreements regarding the nuclear program and Iranian assets remain unresolved. If the signing does take place over the weekend, it will be a turning point for global markets, inflation, and monetary policy. If it fails again, the pullback will be painful, and the dollar will quickly regain all its positions within the first minutes of trading on Monday.

Technical Picture of EUR/USD

Currently, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1580 level. Only this will allow them to aim for a test at 1.1615. From there, it is possible to reach 1.1645, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be the high of 1.1665. In the event of a decrease in trading instruments, I expect serious actions from major buyers only around 1.1555. If no one is present there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1530 or open long positions from 1.1505.

Technical Picture of GBP/USD

As for the GBP/USD technical picture, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance level at 1.3425. Only this will allow them to target 1.3450, above which a breakthrough will be quite difficult. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3475. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control over 1.3380. If this is successful, the breakout will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3360, with prospects of reaching 1.3330.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure. After this structure is completed, the pair may transition to an upward wave sequence, and at the moment the structure appears complete. Therefore, a rise in the euro can be expected from the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. However, without geopolitical support, the euro cannot count on favorable market sentiment.

The EUR/USD pair gained 40 basis points on Thursday, with most of the movement occurring during the evening session. What do you think caused the euro to rally by 80 basis points from the day's low? No, it was not the ECB meeting, Christine Lagarde's speech, or the first monetary policy tightening since 2023. The rally was triggered by Donald Trump, who once again managed to accomplish the impossible by making several completely contradictory statements during the day.

If the U.S. president were speaking about upcoming elections, new legislative initiatives, or policy proposals, the market would likely ignore his constantly changing rhetoric. However, the White House leader comments daily on developments in the Middle East, over which he has direct influence. Put simply, Trump shares his plans with the markets several times a day, and those plans constantly change. As a result, the market continues to swing from one direction to another.

On Thursday morning, Trump was planning new strikes against Iran, accusing Tehran of delaying negotiations and refusing to reach an agreement. By the evening, however, he announced that new strikes had been canceled because an agreement with Tehran could be signed in the near future.

The day before, Trump had actively ordered strikes against Iran. Earlier still, he stated that no further strikes would take place because, according to him, senior Iranian officials had contacted him and requested that he refrain from doing so. Such statements are often made only hours apart. Therefore, Thursday's EUR/USD rally was entirely attributable to Trump's comments.

How Will Events Develop From Here?

We believe a turning point is approaching. Every day, the market receives further confirmation that Trump's statements cannot be relied upon under any circumstances. The wave structure suggests the formation of a corrective upward wave sequence, while the 1.1513 level has already withstood selling pressure twice. In my view, the probability of further gains in the instrument remains high.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a bullish trend segment (lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a bearish trend segment that may already be complete. In my view, this is a reasonably favorable time to consider establishing long positions.

The failed attempt to break below the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, together with the completed appearance of the bearish trend segment, allows us to assume that the instrument may transition to an upward wave sequence with targets located around the 1.1700 level and higher.

On the higher time frame, a bullish trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near term, wave C is expected to form, with targets located near 1.1352, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C structure is completed, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. Absolute certainty regarding market direction never exists and never will. Always remember to use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical news to launch a full-scale advance. The most recently completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. The geopolitical backdrop is currently highly uncertain, giving neither bulls nor bears a clear advantage. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after the June 5 high is surpassed.

Thursday's news background consisted solely of geopolitical developments. From the very beginning of the day, traders favored selling GBP/USD and buying the U.S. dollar after Donald Trump stated that Iran would be destroyed in the near future. His comments were supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. However, by the evening, the U.S. president's tone had become more positive. He abandoned his plans to "tear Iran apart" and unexpectedly stated that the sides could soon reach an excellent agreement. His remarks caused genuine confusion in Tehran, which issued an official statement this morning saying it had no idea what the U.S. president was referring to. According to Iranian officials, no agreement currently exists, and negotiations have been suspended due to the escalation of the conflict this week. Thus, the market undoubtedly reacted to Trump's comments regarding a deal with Iran, but did not place significant confidence in them. For several weeks now, Trump has been promising a peace agreement, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to hostilities. In reality, the world continues to witness the exact opposite. Therefore, the upside potential for both the euro and the pound remains limited.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and advanced toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and imply a moderate decline toward 1.3327. A consolidation above 1.3429 would increase the likelihood of further gains for the pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,291, while short positions declined by 13,471. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 53,000 versus 110,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bearish advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, developments will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the prospect of a prolonged conflict, but the latest news suggests that a ceasefire may still be achievable, although it is unlikely to be easy or quick.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 12 contains only one event, which I do not consider significant. Therefore, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be negligible.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.3408 level on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3349–1.3355 level. The target was reached. New short positions may be considered on another rebound from 1.3408 or on a close below the 1.3349–1.3355 level.

Long positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3349–1.3355 support level, targeting 1.3408. Alternatively, long positions may be opened after a close above 1.3408, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 resistance level.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Yesterday, Donald Trump made a statement that instantly shifted sentiment in the financial markets: the US has agreed to end the war with Iran. According to the president, an agreement has essentially been reached—Iran will not obtain nuclear weapons—and in the coming days, the parties will resolve all remaining issues.

For the markets, this signifies de-escalation of the very geopolitical conflict that has been a major source of pressure on risk assets since late May. The recent US strikes on Iran and sanctions against the agency controlling the Strait of Hormuz were what triggered the collapse of the cryptocurrency market in June.

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum reacted to Trump's statements with a swift rise, as the market quickly began to reprice the geopolitical risk premium priced in over the past weeks. The logic is straightforward: resolving the conflict with Iran alleviates the threat of interruptions in oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil traffic passes. This implies a potential decrease in inflationary pressure from energy prices—a factor that drove the May CPI to 4.2% and prompted the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates. Lower inflation expectations will lead to a softer monetary rhetoric, thus improving conditions for risk assets in general and cryptocurrencies in particular.

If an agreement is signed in the coming days, the market will gain two positive impulses simultaneously: geopolitical de-escalation and decreased inflationary pressure. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have endured seventeen consecutive red days in ETFs and a drop below $60,000, this could be the catalyst needed for a reversal.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $63,400, targeting $64,300. Near $64,300, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately for a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be purchased from the lower boundary of $62,700 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting levels $63,400 and $64,300.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching an entry point around $62,700, targeting a drop to $61,700. Near $61,700, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of $63,400 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above, targeting levels $62,700 and $61,700.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,662, targeting $1,688. Near $1,688, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately for a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be purchased from the lower boundary of $1,647 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting levels $1,662 and $1,688.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching an entry point around $1,647, targeting a drop to $1,615. Near $1,615, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary of $1,662 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above, targeting levels $1,647 and $1,615.

The price test at 160.47 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell dollars. As a result, the pair moved down to the target level of 160.14.

The yen exhibited impressive growth yesterday, while the US dollar weakened. This reversal was driven by a promising statement from President Donald Trump about his intention to make significant progress toward concluding a deal to end the war with Iran. Such a move, implying a shift from military confrontation to diplomatic resolution, naturally increased the yen's appeal; however, its growth was short-lived.

Focus will continue to be on the Middle East and the actions of the Bank of Japan, which has recently been strongly inclined to conduct currency interventions to strengthen the yen, as its target level of 160 yen has long been reached, and the USD/JPY pair shows no signs of falling below this level without intervention.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 160.38 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 160.60 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 160.60, I intend to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.25, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 160.38 and 160.60.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 160.25 (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.02, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers may return at any moment; a hint from the central bank is all that is needed. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.38, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 160.25 and 160.02.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3350 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling pounds. As a result, the pair decreased by 25 pips.

However, a sharp strengthening of the British pound and a weakening of the US dollar followed, attributed to geopolitical factors and Trump's statements regarding the Middle East.

Today in the UK, a number of macroeconomic indicators are set to be released, which could significantly impact the national currency's exchange rate. In the first half of the day, data on changes in gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, and the goods trade balance will be published. Unfortunately, analyst forecasts for these indicators do not inspire optimism—weak figures are expected. Under these circumstances, discussing significant growth for the British pound is likely premature. Weak GDP indicators may signal a slowdown or even stagnation in the British economy, which, in turn, undermines investor confidence and decreases the attractiveness of the national currency. Negative trends in industrial production are also unlikely to boost the pound, as industrial production is a key component of the country's economic activity.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3417 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 1.3455 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 1.3455, I intend to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the pound to grow today after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3393, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3417 and 1.3455.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level at 1.3393 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3355, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3417, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3393 and 1.3355.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1522 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair dropped nearly 20 pips.

The market appears to be more focused on geopolitical developments than on monetary policy. The European Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates, while a step toward normalization, was overshadowed by statements from US President Donald Trump. His words about de-escalating the conflict with Iran elicited a stronger reaction from the euro than the ECB's actions, highlighting investors' current nervousness and their preference for reacting to political signals rather than fundamental economic data. This indicates that in an environment of heightened uncertainty surrounding the Middle Eastern conflict, market players are inclined to respond to news that can rapidly change the geopolitical landscape. The ECB's actions, as part of a long-term strategy to combat inflation, are perceived as less significant compared to possible military actions or their cancellation.

Today's economic calendar promises to be eventful, especially in the first half of the day, when traders and analysts will focus on the release of consumer price index data from three of the largest eurozone economies—Germany, Italy, and Spain. These indicators traditionally serve as a barometer of inflationary pressure in the region and can significantly influence market sentiment and the ECB's future rhetoric. The anticipated CPI data are expected to provide fresh insights into price dynamics, which remain a key factor influencing the ECB's monetary policy. Persisting inflation, even if showing signs of slowing, may heighten expectations for further monetary policy tightening, including the possibility of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period. All of this will present a new reason to buy the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be made upon reaching a price of around 1.1579 (green line on the chart), with a target to reach 1.1620. At point 1.1620, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect euro growth today after good data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1556 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposite levels of 1.1579 and 1.1620.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros today after reaching the 1.1556 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1510, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return only in case of very weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1579 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1556 and 1.1510.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank took the expected step of raising the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. At first glance, this move could have triggered significant fluctuations in the currency market; however, to many's surprise, the euro showed only minor gains. The main driver of the euro's movement was not the European Central Bank's actions but rather statements from US President Donald Trump. His sudden announcement that he no longer intends to take further military action against Iran had a far more substantial impact on trader sentiment. This shift in US foreign policy seemingly reduced geopolitical risks, which in turn led to market stabilization and weakened demand for traditional safe havens like the dollar.

Today promises to be eventful, as important macroeconomic data is set to be released from key Eurozone economies. Consumer price index figures from Germany, Italy, and Spain are expected. These indicators play a critical role in assessing inflationary processes in the region and could, consequently, significantly influence the ECB's decisions regarding future monetary policy.

As for the British pound, figures on changes in UK GDP over the last three months, industrial production, and the trade balance are also expected in the first half of the day. The released GDP data is likely to show a slowdown in economic growth, driven by both internal and external factors. A decline in industrial production reflects difficulties in the manufacturing sector, a key driver of the economy. These challenges could include global supply chain issues and domestic challenges related to the energy crisis and inflationary pressure. Collectively, these macroeconomic indicators will create an unfavorable backdrop for the British pound.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' expectations, it is best to utilize the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Long positions on the breakout of the level 1.1588 could lead to the euro rising toward 1.1617 and 1.1645.
• Short positions on the breakout of the level 1.1556 could lead to the euro falling toward 1.1529 and 1.1506.

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Longs on the breakout of the level 1.3424 could lead to the pound rising toward 1.3452 and 1.3478.
• Shorts on the breakout of the level 1.3388 could lead to the pound falling toward 1.3359 and 1.3331.

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Longs on the breakout of the level 160.43 could lead to the dollar rising toward 160.60 and 160.90.
• Shorts on the breakout of the level 160.24 could lead to the dollar declining toward 160.02 and 159.83.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1592 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1552 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3421 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3390 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7052 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7024 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3990 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3960 on a return to this level.

Bitcoin is trading around $63,645, above the 21 SMA, and above the 0/8 Murray level, with a positive bias. However, BTC may struggle to continue rising as we observe a resistance level around $64,000.

Given that Bitcoin is showing a positive signal, we could continue buying in the coming days until it reaches the strong resistance of the 1/8 Murray level around $66,625.

Bitcoin is trading within an ascending trend channel formed on June 5th and could technically reach the upper band of this channel in the coming days. From that area, it could resume its bearish cycle.

According to the H4 chart, the area to take short positions could be when Bitcoin reaches $65,625 or the upper band of the ascending trend channel around $66,000. A break below this zone would be seen as a sell signal with targets around the Murray 0/8 level at $62,500.

If Bitcoin doesn't have the strength to rise to $66,000, we could expect it to form a double-top pattern around $64,000. It could then reverse bearishly and return to the $62,000 level around the 21-period SMA. Even if BTC breaks below the ascending trend channel, it could return to the $59,375 level.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for Bitcoin to break above $64,000 and then buy or sell below $64,000, with targets at $62,500 and around the psychological level of $60,000.

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1574 with a bullish bias following a strong move above the psychological level of 1.15, and it is likely to face resistance to further upside.

The euro is likely to reach the 1.1596 resistance zone, which coincides with the upper band of the downtrend channel formed since May 22.

The euro formed a double-bottom pattern around the psychological level of 1.15, which provided an opportunity to continue buying. From that level, EUR/USD reached the 1.1589 area.

Based on this pattern, the euro could break through the strong resistance at 1.1596 and continue rising in the coming days, reaching the 200 EMA at 1.1628. If the upward momentum persists, EUR/USD could rise further to the 8/8 Murray line around 1.1718.

We could see a technical correction toward the 21 SMA at 1.1548 in the coming hours; this zone could be viewed as a clear buy signal with targets at 1.1596 and 1.1628.

Yesterday, we mentioned the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern. Given yesterday's events, the euro broke above this pattern, so we believe it could continue rising in the coming days; therefore, our outlook is now bullish.

Meanwhile, experts have found a new reason to believe Bitcoin will soon enter a new bullish trend that could take it to $400,000. According to the "Power Law," Bitcoin is currently trading below its fair value of $134,000 and below its "lower range" of $67,000. The upper range is set at $404,000. What is the "Power Law," and what do these levels and ranges represent? Essentially, it is an ascending long-term channel with three boundaries, including the middle range. It is not exactly a channel; it more closely resembles a hyperbola. However, the essence is similar. Since 2017, Bitcoin has hit the lower boundary of this hyperbola three times, and in 2026 (now), it has reached it for the fourth time. The upper boundary has been hit only twice since 2017, which indicates that Bitcoin's long-term growth is slowing.

However, analyst Mark Harvey believes that Bitcoin rarely deviates from this model. Every time Bitcoin reached the "bottom" of the hyperbola, a powerful recovery began. We would like to remind traders of several important points. First, any model eventually becomes irrelevant. Second, Harvey does not explain what constitutes "fair value" and why it is set at $134,000, a level that Bitcoin has never reached in its history. Third, any channel is eventually broken, and any bullish trend comes to an end. Fourth, past profitability does not guarantee future profitability.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend and correction against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of an upward trend emerging. The latest bearish FVG formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range; therefore, this area serves as a point of interest (POI) for short positions in the coming weeks. The cryptocurrency may correct in the near future on the 4-hour timeframe, so if traders wish to trade against the trend, they can consider long positions from bullish patterns.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe, the formation of a downward trend, which began in August of last year, continues. The key pattern for selling has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we previously warned, the movement triggered by this signal can be strong and prolonged. We do not believe it has ended, as there are no signs of the downward trend in either Bitcoin or Ethereum abating. In the near future, Ethereum may resume its decline with targets at $1,391 and $788. An upward correction can be expected when at least some bullish pattern or other signs of a price reversal to the upside are formed on at least the 4-hour timeframe. Among the new POI areas for short positions, we note the FVG in the $1,624-$1,720 range. If this pattern is ignored, traders will receive a signal for a correction.

Notes on Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Change in trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Losses, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to these areas in continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but breaks through impulsively, then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position to gather liquidity in order to form their own position in the opposite direction.

Yesterday evening, the cryptocurrency market gained a little momentum, albeit briefly and not significantly. Donald Trump announced that new strikes on Iran were canceled because the parties are close to reaching an agreement. This statement came on the same day he announced planned strikes on Iran for Friday and accused Tehran of dragging out negotiations. Whether to believe the American leader this time is up to you. Nevertheless, many experts immediately noted a "sharp rise" in Bitcoin, which is barely discernible even on the 4-hour timeframe. We believe that yesterday's minor strengthening of the first cryptocurrency has little to do with geopolitics, or at least it is not the main reason. Bitcoin has reached a point where a small correction is overdue. The last correction was extremely slow and lasted three months. Thus, we may be awaiting a new, protracted period of weak growth in Bitcoin before another collapse.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has resumed forming a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as descending, and the CHOCH line has been moved to $82,800, with a new Lower Low (LL) formed. Only above this level can the downward trend be considered completed. Since there are still no signs of an upward trend reversal, we expect the decline to continue. On the daily timeframe, a new bearish FVG has formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range. Other FVG can be identified during the current Bitcoin decline, but this one is the most obvious. Thus, new sell signals may be formed within this pattern in the future.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has begun to show signs of a correction. The CHOCH line, which supports the downward trend, is at $78,000, but it may need to be moved lower soon. This requires at least a minimal correction. Bearish patterns can be used to open new short positions, but the current decline is so strong that it is better to focus on the daily timeframe for these strategies. As for buying deals, these are also possible from bullish patterns on the 4-hour timeframe, but one should understand that strong growth in a downward trend is unlikely. The best-case scenario involves short-term, small-volume long positions.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% level on the Fibonacci retracement from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of the beginning of an upward trend. The last bearish FVG was formed in the area of $68,000 - $70,700; therefore, this area serves as a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency may correct in the near future, so if traders wish to trade against the trend, they can consider long positions from bullish patterns.

Notes on Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Change in trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Losses, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to these areas in continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but breaks through impulsively, then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position to gather liquidity in order to form their own position in the opposite direction.