Thus, I believe the market spent about a month pricing in the end of the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It has now completely lost faith in this scenario. This is what is driving the renewed strength of the US dollar. At present, Donald Trump is again urging Iran to sign an agreement with the United States as soon as possible, indirectly hinting at possible strikes otherwise. Iran continues to insist on its list of demands and refuses to make concessions. Negotiations are currently at an impasse.

In the current situation, traders are left waiting for a reaction at imbalance 13, which represents the last bullish pattern in the current bullish impulse. If the decline in the pair is treated as a corrective pullback, it may well conclude within imbalance 13. It should be noted that patterns alone do not provide trading entry signals. They must be confirmed by signals on lower timeframes—for example, a break of structure or bullish patterns. In other words, there must be signs of a reversal. If there are none, then there is no signal either. Thus, at the moment I am waiting for a reaction at imbalance 13. I consider this week's decline excessive. The war in the Middle East has not resumed.

I cannot help but note once again that the entire rise of the US dollar in January–March was driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the US and Iran agreed on a ceasefire, the bears immediately retreated, and for more than a month bulls have been in control. At present, the truce is quite fragile, but negotiations continue, and the chances of peace still remain. I have repeatedly said that I do not believe in the end of the bullish trend, despite the breakdown of important trend-defining lows and despite the war in Iran. The market often prices in the most pessimistic scenario immediately, trying to anticipate the most extreme outcome. Thus, I assume that traders have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In this case, I do not expect a strong bearish advance.

The overall chart structure is currently as clear as day. The bullish advance remains intact but urgently requires support. Ideally, this support would be geopolitical—namely, the resumption of negotiations between Iran and the US and eventual concessions from both sides. Without a positive news backdrop, it will be difficult for the euro to strengthen.

The economic backdrop on Friday was once again in favor of the dollar. Today, only one report was released on US industrial production, and it came in stronger than traders expected, which only reinforced the bearish momentum. Throughout all five days this week, the market has had solid reasons to sell EUR/USD.

There are still many reasons for bulls to remain active in 2026, and even the start of the Middle East war has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, the policy of Donald Trump—which led to a significant drop in the dollar last year—has not changed. In the coming months, the US currency may occasionally strengthen due to risk-off flows, but this requires continuous escalation of the Middle East conflict. I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but what would sustain long-term bearish momentum?

Economic calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

On May 18, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The macroeconomic backdrop will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The information backdrop changed sharply three months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered broken or completed. Thus, in the near term, bulls may well resume their advance if geopolitics does not continue to undermine traders' confidence in a positive resolution of the conflict.

Traders had opportunities to open long positions based on the imbalance 12 signal, as well as the order block signal. The upward movement may resume all the way to the yearly highs from imbalance 13. However, in the coming days it is important for bulls to maintain control of the market. For uninterrupted euro growth, the Middle East conflict must move toward a stable peace, and some signs of de-escalation do occasionally appear. However, this remains a rare occurrence. Bullish traders currently do not have sufficient support for a new impulse. The buying zone is imbalance 13.

In my view, the market had been pricing in optimism regarding the Middle East conflict in recent weeks and is now pricing in pessimism because that optimism failed to materialize. Even so, I believe the pound's decline has been excessively sharp. The euro has now reached a bullish imbalance zone, while the British pound has reached bullish imbalance 18. This imbalance had already been tested previously, but there can be more than one reaction to the same pattern. At the moment, both the euro and the pound have reached support zones, so I expect a reaction from these levels and a renewed bullish advance. If the patterns are invalidated, it will become difficult to deny the bearish momentum.

The situation surrounding the resolution of the Middle East conflict has completely stalled, and traders do not understand which direction the pendulum will swing next. Today it may swing toward the bulls, tomorrow toward the bears. This is exactly the picture we have been observing in recent weeks. At the moment, belief in peace in the Middle East and in the lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually fading.

In my opinion, the overall trend remains bullish despite the pair's sharp declines this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East is currently fragile, but it still exists. Naturally, the market cannot rely forever on information that is not confirmed by facts. The Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, and although Tehran and Washington have been working toward lifting it for several weeks, there has been no result. The situation alternates between improving and deteriorating. The markets were very optimistic about a month ago, but now that optimism has been replaced by more objective conditions.

The current technical picture is as follows: bullish imbalance 18 remains in place and may trigger a reaction that revives the pound. If this pattern is invalidated, the decline may continue, and in that case we would begin talking about a full-fledged bearish trend. After this week's collapse, a bearish imbalance will form, allowing for short positions to be opened. However, for me, imbalance 18 remains the more important factor for now.

Friday's economic news background helped the bears push slightly lower, although their momentum is also fading. Industrial production volumes in April rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year, both of which exceeded market expectations. However, the pound had already been falling since Thursday, so the production report was not the key driver behind the dollar's strength.

In the United States, the overall news backdrop remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar should be expected. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States changes little. Geopolitics temporarily reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status for two months, but overall the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains difficult. The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recession, and the Fed — unlike the ECB and the Bank of England — does not intend to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Across the United States, four major protest movements against Donald Trump have already taken place, and Jerome Powell's departure could only worsen the situation for the dollar if the FOMC under Kevin Warsh adopts a more dovish stance. From an economic perspective, I see no basis for dollar growth.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the United Kingdom:

The economic calendar for May 18 contains no notable events. The economic backdrop will therefore have no influence on market sentiment on Monday. However, new geopolitical developments may emerge over the weekend.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" warned traders about the beginning of growth, and since then three bullish patterns and three bullish signals have formed. This week, geopolitics damaged the bulls' previously optimistic outlook, but they still have a chance to retain the initiative through imbalance 18. My target for the pound remains the 2026 high at 1.3867. I will only begin considering a bearish trend if imbalance 18 is invalidated. In that case, bearish patterns will come into play.

Traders frightened by inflation are maintaining short positions in risk assets while continuing to shift into the U.S. dollar. In the second half of the day, we are expecting the release of the Empire Manufacturing Index and U.S. industrial production data. These indicators, which serve as sensitive measures of the U.S. economy, may significantly affect currency pair's rates and sentiment in the foreign exchange market.

The Empire Manufacturing Index, calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflects business activity in New York State's manufacturing sector. A rise in the index above the neutral 0 level indicates expansion, while a decline below that level signals contraction. At the same time, changes in industrial production represent a key macroeconomic indicator measuring the output of all industrial enterprises, including factories, mines, and utilities. An increase in this indicator is generally viewed as a sign of economic growth, while a decline may signal a slowdown.

If the released data comes in better than economists' forecasts, this could trigger a sharp increase in demand for the U.S. dollar, continuing its bullish trend at the end of the week against a range of other currencies.

If the statistics are strong, I will rely on implementing the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1648 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1673 and 1.1698;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1620 may lead to euro decline toward 1.1592 and 1.1569;

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3372 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3406 and 1.3443;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3332 may lead to pound decline toward 1.3290 and 1.3249;

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 158.60 may lead to dollar growth toward 158.87 and 159.25;
• Selling on a breakout below 157.28 may lead to dollar sell-offs toward 157.93 and 157.65;

Mean Reversion Strategy for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1650 followed by a return below that level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1615 followed by a return above that level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3382 followed by a return below that level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3319 followed by a return above that level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7174 followed by a return below that level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7135 followed by a return above that level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3762 followed by a return below that level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3733 followed by a return above that level.

The first test of the 158.44 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of 158.44 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold zone, which led to the implementation of Buy Scenario No. 2, with the pair rising by 15 points.

Next, we will see data on the Empire Manufacturing Index and U.S. industrial production figures. If these numbers exceed analysts' expectations, we can expect a rapid recovery in demand for the U.S. dollar and another decline in the Japanese yen. Positive results may indicate a revival in business activity in the United States, growth in order volumes, and consequently potential acceleration in GDP growth.

Market participants will closely analyze this data, taking into account its possible impact on Federal Reserve policy. More optimistic-than-expected figures could strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy. This, in turn, would increase the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, if the released figures come in below expectations, this could reduce pressure on risk assets, allowing the yen to recover somewhat against the dollar by the end of the week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 158.63 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 159.05 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.05, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. Growth in the pair today can be expected if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.42 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 158.63 and 159.05 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after an update of the 158.42 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.16 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pair will return today if weak U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.63 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 158.42 and 158.16 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3336 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

Ahead, we are expecting the release of the Empire Manufacturing Index and U.S. industrial production data. Strong figures in these areas may signal rising business activity, increasing orders, and consequently potential GDP growth, which would support another rise in the U.S. dollar against the British pound. Better-than-expected data could strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy. On the other hand, if the figures come in weaker than forecast, this could raise doubts about the sustainability of economic growth, leading to profit-taking on long dollar positions at the end of the week, which would positively affect the GBP/USD pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3377 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.3416 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3416, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pound can be expected to rise today only after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3347 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3377 and 1.3416 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after an update of the 1.3347 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3311 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pound will return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3377 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3347 and 1.3311 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The euro is trading at 1.1628, rebounding after hitting the lower band of the downtrend channel at 1.1618. Since then, there has been a strong technical rebound, but it lacked the momentum to sustain the upward move, so we are seeing a new downtrend.

If the euro consolidates above the daily support level around 1.1621 in the coming hours, it could be considered a buying opportunity with a target of 1.1650 and the upper band of the downtrend channel around 1.1663.

After breaking through the 4/8 Murray level, the euro failed to consolidate above this zone and attempted to break through on several occasions but was unable to do so, which triggered a sharp drop from 1.1718 to 1.1618; therefore, we believe the euro could see a recovery in the coming days.

If bearish momentum prevails, the euro has a significant and key support level around the 3/8 Murray line at 1.1596. This level could offer a good opportunity to open long positions and buy during a simple technical rebound if the price consolidates above this zone.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels and is giving a positive signal, so we must be very cautious as a strong technical rebound could occur in the coming days.

The test of the 1.1631 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the euro's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell.

In the second half of the day, we will receive data on the Empire Manufacturing Index and U.S. industrial production figures. These indicators, which serve as sensitive barometers of the U.S. economy, could significantly affect currency pair dynamics. The Empire Manufacturing Index, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflects business activity in New York State's manufacturing sector. Analysts and traders closely monitor this index because it often provides an early signal of emerging trends in U.S. industry as a whole.

At the same time, changes in industrial production serve as an important macroeconomic indicator reflecting the total output of the industrial sector. Growth in this indicator is generally associated with economic expansion, while a decline may signal a slowdown.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1649 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1678. At 1.1678, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry level. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1626 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1649 and 1.1678 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1626 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1649 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1626 and 1.1594 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The British pound is trading around 1.33, having reached the lower band of the downtrend channel formed since May 10, and is consolidating above the daily S1 support level, which could support a recovery in the pound sterling.

After breaking below the 200 EMA, the British pound began a sharp decline below 1.35, reaching a low of 1.3280. Since then, we have seen a slight recovery. We believe we could expect consolidation above this zone in the coming days, with a potential buying opportunity.

With a technical bounce above 1.3339 or, should the price reach the 5/8 Murray level around 1.3305, this could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions with targets at the 6/8 Murray level around 1.3427.

The Eagle indicator shows that the British pound has reached oversold levels, so we believe the decline could halt, provided that GBP/USD consolidates above the 5/8 Murray level.

Our trading plan for the coming days is to buy the British pound above 1.3305; any pullback will be seen as a buy signal with targets at 1.3427 and the 200 EMA around 1.3487.

Bitcoin is trading at $80,400, pulling back after reaching the upper band of the downtrend channel that has been forming since early May around $81,890.

Bitcoin could continue its fall in the coming days until it reaches the lower band of the downtrend channel at $78,350. BTC could even reach a strong support level that combines the 5/8 Murray line and the 200 EMA around $77,810.

If Bitcoin attempts to break above the 6/8 Murray level at $81,250 in the coming hours and fails to rise above this zone, it will be seen as a negative signal to sell, with targets at $80,000 and $78,125.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we believe Bitcoin will continue to face strong downward pressure in the coming days, and we will look for opportunities to sell below $81,900.

A strong technical rebound could occur in Bitcoin around the 5/8 Murray level. This zone could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions, as technically, a technical rebound always occurs at the lower band of the downtrend channel, and we could take advantage of it.

Crude oil is trading around $99.57, undergoing a technical correction after reaching a high of $100.69. If the price consolidates below the 8/8 Murray line and below the psychological level of $100, this could signal a technical correction toward the lower band of the uptrend channel.

If crude oil breaks above the psychological level of $100 and consolidates above this zone in the coming hours, we can expect the uptrend to continue, potentially reaching $101.76, the level of the daily resistance. The instrument could even reach the upper band of the trend channel around $103.81.

If the price consolidates below $100 in the coming hours, this could be seen as a signal to sell, with targets at the 21 SMA around $97.50. We could even expect it to reach the area of the uptrend channel around $96.30.

A decisive break of the uptrend channel could lead to a strong technical correction, and we could expect crude oil to retest the level it left around $91.60. Ultimately, we could see a sharp drop toward the 7/8 Murray level around $87.50.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell below the psychological level of $100 or buy above $100 if the price consolidates above the 8/8 Murray line, with targets at about $101.76.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we believe that any pullback in crude oil prices will be seen as a signal to continue buying.

The USD index is heading for its best weekly performance in two months; reversal risks for the US dollar are skewed to the upside and are approaching the year-high seen in March. Back then, the greenback was bought both as a safe asset and as the currency of a net energy exporter. In April, bears retreated on EUR/USD on hopes that the war would end soon. It didn't. It's time to return to selling the main currency pair.

Dynamics of US dollar reversal risks

Anyone who entertained the illusion that China would pressure Iran — which sells it oil — after the Xi-Trump meeting has been disappointed. Yes, Beijing agreed that Iran building nuclear weapons would be bad, and that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is bad. But it does not intend to take concrete action.

The US president left China empty-handed. Worse, he was rebuked for his readiness to approve arms sales to Taiwan. China considers the island its territory and is prepared to fight for it against anyone — including the United States. Why would the White House want that? As Donald Trump put it, an armed conflict 9,500 miles away is the last thing Americans need right now.

Territorial distance from the fighting in Ukraine and the Middle East, net energy exporter status and massive investments in artificial intelligence allow the US economy to thrive. The labor market has stabilized, GDP is growing at 2%, and inflation is accelerating to four-year highs. Following CPI and PPI, import prices have also risen.

US import price dynamics

If the economy is this healthy with the federal funds rate at 3.75%, it can surely withstand even higher borrowing costs. Futures markets gradually shifted the timing of Fed tightening first from April to March, and then from March to December under the influence of incoming data.

The ECB's rate-hike timetable, by contrast, is moving later. June is no longer in play amid signs of a sharp slowdown in the currency bloc's GDP. With this rate differential between the world's major central banks and the yield gap between US and German bonds, the euro has little choice but to fall.

Technically, the EUR/USD daily chart shows completion of a "Spike and Shelf" pattern. The break below the lower band of the 1.1685–1.1775 consolidation range allowed shorts opened from 1.178 to be increased. These positions should now be held and periodically added to. Target levels remain unchanged — 1.159 and 1.154.

Industrial output declined 0.5% month on month, versus a market forecast of +0.1%. Capacity utilization dropped to 75.7% — a level that typically signals broad cooling in the sector rather than isolated problems in individual subsectors.

Manufacturing and utilities accounted for the bulk of the decline. Because manufacturing comprises the main component of the index, its downturn always pulls the aggregate reading down most strongly. Mining did not stand out as a key factor, which implies the problem has a systemic, not purely sectoral, character.

Note that the March drop occurred against a background of accelerating inflation, high energy prices, and rising uncertainty around the Middle East and trade tariffs. Taken together, these factors create a toxic cocktail for industry: costs rise, export demand weakens, and firms exercise caution about expanding output.

Markets await April data with heightened attention; the consensus forecast calls for a 0.3% increase, that is, a rebound after March's collapse. By comparison, one year ago in April 2025, markets expected a 0.2% rise, yet the Fed recorded zero change. In other words, even moderate optimism often proves optimistic.

Still, the data offer some reasons for cautious improvement. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in April from 52.3 in March, indicating expanding sector activity. New orders grew faster than a month earlier, which usually supports future output. Utilities also showed a noticeable pickup in that release, and a similar dynamic remains possible now.

Tariff pressure, high commodity and energy prices, and weak exports will continue to cap a recovery, however. Manufacturing employment remains under strain, which suggests firms remain conservative on capacity expansion.

The base case for April looks like this: better than March, but without a strong rebound. The data will be published today, and they will provide an important signal about how well US industry can cope with inflationary pressure amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

As for the technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1650 level. Only that will allow a target test of 1.1675. From there the pair can climb to 1.1700, but doing so without support from major players will prove rather difficult. The most distant target stands at the high of 1.1725. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer action only around 1.1620; if nobody shows there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1600 or to open longs from 1.1580.

Regarding the technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3380. Only that will allow a target of 1.3410, above which a breakout will prove rather difficult. The most distant target stands at the 1.3445 area. In the event of a drop, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3335; if they succeed, a range breakout will deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3280 low with a prospect of reaching 1.3250.

The case concerns 344,149,759 USDT held on two Tron network wallets that belong to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and OFAC added those addresses to the sanctions list on April 24, 2026; Tether immediately froze the balances, making the tokens non-transferable. The technical mechanics matter here: the USDT smart contract contains built?in functions named "blacklist" to freeze an address and "destroyBlackFunds" to zero out a balance. In other words, Tether built infrastructure from the outset that enables centralized control over an ostensibly decentralized asset.

As the complaint notes, the plaintiffs — survivors of Iran-sponsored terrorist attacks — have won judgments against Iran totaling more than $2.4 billion over the past 25 years: $552 million in compensatory awards and nearly $1.9 billion in punitive damages. Iran paid not a penny. Evidently, they now seek to enforce those judgments through the IRGC's crypto wallets.

The plaintiffs' central argument is simple and persuasive: Tether already complied with government requests to move or neutralize USDT. In March 2025, at the FBI's request, the company transferred an equivalent USDT amount to US authorities. In November 2024, under an Ohio court order, Tether "burned" tokens at a target address and reissued 4,340,000 USDT to a law-enforcement-controlled wallet.

That history raises the question: if Tether acted at the government's request, must the company also act for private creditors who hold court judgments?

The filing also provides important context about Tether itself. As of April 2026, the company froze more than 4.4 billion USDT in total. Tether's USDT reserves exceeding $181 billion sit 99% with Cantor Fitzgerald, whose headquarters are in New York — a fact that helps justify this court's jurisdiction. The filing also recounts an allegation that a Tether employee once demanded a "20% fee" to reissue frozen tokens to another owner, which underscores the technical feasibility of such operations.

I note that this lawsuit raises a fundamental question for the entire stablecoin sector: how centralized is this market in practice, and under what circumstances can private claimants force an issuer to reallocate assets? If the court sides with the plaintiffs, it will create a precedent capable of changing the legal status of stablecoins in the US. USDT would then become not only a digital dollar substitute but also an asset subject to civil enforcement, analogous to a bank account.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers now target a return to $81,800, which opens a direct road to $83,600, and from there the market would be within reach of $85,600. The most distant target stands at the high near $87,900, and a breach of that level would signal attempts to restore the bull market. In case of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at $80,100. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $78,300. The furthest downside target would be the $76,300 area.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2,316 opens a direct road to $2,373. The most distant target stands at the high near $2,446, and a breach of that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of an Ether decline, I expect buyers at $2,244. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,181. The furthest downside target would be the $2,114 area.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

In my view, the downward move can be attributed to three interrelated fundamental factors. First, markets were disappointed by the outcome of President Donald Trump's visit to China. Second, traders are increasingly worried about rising tensions between the United States and Iran. Third, hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve have strengthened. Together, these forces allowed sellers to push EUR/USD out of the 1.17 range and to establish a foothold below 1.1690.

On geopolitics, market participants had placed high hopes on Mr. Trump's trip for substantive agreements between Washington and Beijing on trade, investment, and wider geopolitical detente. The actual outcome was more symbolic than strategic. Even targeted deals fell short of market expectations. For example, Boeing shares fell despite an announced purchase of 200 aircraft by China because investors had hoped for a far larger order — perhaps up to 500 737 Max and additional wide-body jets. The announced deal was therefore seen more as a political compromise than a decisive commercial win for Boeing.

Crucial systemic issues were not resolved. Statements amounted to talks of "stabilizing relations," while core disputes — Taiwan, Iran, tariff policy and technology controls — remain unresolved. By the time Mr. Trump left Beijing, no concrete, wide-ranging commitments had been reached.

The disappointing China visit coincided with mounting US-Iran tensions. The president said yesterday that his patience with Tehran "is shortening rapidly" and urged Iran to reach a deal "as quickly as possible", reiterating that the United States will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Two days earlier, senior CNN sources reported that Mr. Trump is increasingly seriously considering renewed military strikes on Iran amid stalled diplomacy.

Iran has insisted on its own conditions: sanctions relief, release of frozen funds, compensation for damages, and formal recognition of its sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz. Today Iran's vice president, Mohammad Reza Aref, declared the strait "Iran's property" and said Tehran would never give it up.

As noted, Mr. Trump's China visit did little to reduce tensions or advance settlement of the Middle East conflict. Bloomberg reported that the White House made clear it wanted Beijing to pressure Tehran into talks. China, for its part, took a cautious stance: the foreign ministry reiterated that issues related to Iran's nuclear program should be resolved diplomatically.

In short, the situation remains precariously close to a resumption of military scenarios.

Against this background, market expectations have shifted. Traders now anticipate the Fed may keep rates on hold at least through year-end and are also discounting the possibility of tighter policy in the second half. The CME FedWatch tool shows about a 20 percent chance of a rate increase at the September meeting. April CPI and PPI releases, which showed accelerations in headline and core inflation, have strengthened the case for potential tightening.

This fundamental backdrop supports continued weakness in EUR/USD. Technicals corroborate the view. On the four-hour chart the pair sits below all Ichimoku lines, which have produced a bearish "parade of lines" signal. The price has also broken below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, signalling a preference for short positions. The nearest downside target is 1.1590, the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku Kumo cloud.

Trading note: buyers need to retake 1.1660 to target 1.1680. A move beyond that could open a path to 1.1705 and, with further momentum and institutional support, toward 1.1725. On the downside, meaningful buying interest is likely only near about 1.1630. If bids are absent there, it may be prudent to wait for a fresh low around 1.1610 or consider long positions from about 1.1590.

Yannis Stournaras, a member of the ECB Governing Council and governor of the Bank of Greece, added his voice on Tuesday to the chorus of officials warning that monetary policy tightening is becoming unavoidable. He said that if oil remains at current levels, the ECB will have no choice but to raise interest rates. "But we all hope to avoid that," he added.

Stournaras indicated that the policy outlook has shifted: the debate is no longer between a baseline and a downside scenario for the economy but between a downside and a hard-landing scenario. That represents a material change in tone from a few weeks ago, when most officials stressed caution and the need to wait for fresh data.

Fresh inflation data reinforces those concerns. Eurostat's preliminary estimate showed annual inflation in the euro area rising to 3.0% in April from 2.6% in March. Energy remains the main driver: energy prices rose 10.9% year on year in April versus 5.1% in March. Core inflation, which strips out energy and food, eased slightly, giving the ECB a formal rationale for restraint, but the 3.0% headline rate — the highest since September 2023 — is increasingly difficult to ignore politically.

Brent crude traded around $105 a barrel on Thursday, having remained above $100 for three consecutive weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, talks with Iran are at an impasse, and there is no immediate sign of resolution. Stournaras warned that persistently high oil prices would hit both inflation and growth, raising the specter of stagflation that European policymakers most want to avoid.

Markets and economists broadly expect a 25-basis-point rate increase at the ECB's June meeting. However, officials face a choice: if the inflation uptick proves moderate, a hike may not be required; if inflation accelerates and persists, the ECB will have to consider far tougher measures. In short, the outlook hinges on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the duration of the energy crisis.

Even that scenario offers only limited support for the euro, as many traders fear a parallel rise in US prices and are therefore favoring the dollar as a safe-haven currency.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD

From a technical perspective, buyers need to consider how to breach the 1.1660 level in order to target a test of 1.1680. A move beyond that could allow the pair to reach 1.1705, with an ultimate target near 1.1725, but doing so without support from large market participants will be difficult. On the downside, only a decline toward roughly 1.1630 is likely to prompt significant intervention from major buyers. If demand is absent at that level, it would be prudent to wait for a fresh low near 1.1610 or to consider opening long positions from around 1.1590.

Speaking to a group of market experts at New York University, Barr said bluntly: "Balance sheet reduction is the wrong goal, and weakening the resilience of the banking system is the wrong means." He warned that proposals to reduce the Fed's balance sheet would undermine banks' resilience, hamper market functioning, and ultimately threaten financial stability. He called cuts to liquidity requirements a direct threat to the whole banking architecture.

Barr did not name Warsh explicitly, but the intended recipient of the message was obvious. The incoming chair has repeatedly argued for a substantial reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, which was swollen to $6.7 trillion during the financial crisis and the pandemic. The Senate confirmed Warsh on Wednesday by a slim margin, and he is due to be sworn in on Friday after Jerome Powell's term ends.

Barr is not alone in this debate. In March, New York Fed President John Williams questioned changing reserve requirements, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller called a return to a scarce-reserves regime "stupidity." In effect, a substantial part of the current Fed leadership has lined up against Warsh.

Notably, despite the toughness of his stance on the balance sheet, Barr identified inflation — not the labor market — as the main risk to the economy. "For me, the greater risk now is that inflation will behave unpredictably," he said, adding that the labor market, despite its instability, worries him less. This is an important signal: the outgoing Fed leadership is handing Warsh a regulator where the inflation agenda is back front and center, placing the new chair in a difficult position given President Trump's likely expectation of a more rate-friendly Fed.

Michael Barr also indicated he met Kevin Warsh in person on Thursday and expects Warsh to do much good at the Fed. Public debate, it seems, does not preclude working dialogue. Still, the fate of the $6.7 trillion balance sheet remains unresolved — and the new chair will have to address it from day one.

All these developments are providing significant support to the US dollar in FX markets.

EUR/USD

Buyers should focus on taking 1.1660. Only that would allow a test of 1.1680. From there, the currency pair can climb to 1.1705, but doing so without support from major players will be difficult. The farthest target is 1.1725. On the downside, I expect serious buying only around 1.1630. If no buyers appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1610 or to open long positions from 1.1590.

GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3350. Only that would allow a move to 1.3385, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farthest target is 1.3420. On the downside, bears will try to take control of 1.3320. If they succeed, a break of the range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD to 1.3280 with the prospect of moving to 1.3250.

The adopted amendments look like a reasonable compromise. Regulators will be tasked with simplifying rules for firms that operate across multiple asset classes simultaneously: securities, futures, swaps and digital commodities.

A regulatory cause for artificial intelligence also deserves special mention: financial firms will be able to test AI?based products under regulatory supervision without entering the full market.

An important point is the compromise on stablecoins. Legislators are poised to ban passive income for US customers simply for holding tokens, while rewards for actual activity — transactions, product use — will be preserved. How this will be implemented in practice is not yet clear, which obviously leaves room for manipulation of this provision.

Notable rejections are also telling. Elizabeth Warren's amendment to toughen sanctions on crypto mixers like Tornado Cash failed. Restrictions on cryptocurrency in retirement accounts were also struck down. The most politically charged amendment — banning the president and members of Congress from issuing their own crypto assets — did not gain support amid disputes around crypto projects tied to the Trump family. Harsher limits on DeFi were also left off the table.

The result is predictable: the industry-friendly part of the bill passed the committee in a relatively mild form, while measures that could restrict the market or the political class were rejected. That is a positive signal for the crypto market, but the finish line is still far off.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $81,800, which would open a direct route to $83,600 and then to $85,600. The farthest target is the high around $87,900; surpassing that would indicate attempts to return to a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $80,100. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward about $78,300. The farthest downside target would be the $76,300 area.

Ethereum (ETH/USD)

A clear close above $2,316 would open a direct path to $2,373. The farthest target is the high around $2,446; breaking that would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,244. A move back below that area could quickly push ETH toward about $2,181. The farthest downside target would be the $2,114 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The wave structure on the hourly chart currently remains simple. The last completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips, while the last downward wave broke below the previous low. Thus, the trend has shifted to bearish. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, but now, five weeks later, it can be said that geopolitics is moving toward prolonging the conflict. As I warned, the bulls failed to build on their momentum, and the bears have once again taken the offensive.

On Thursday, the dollar continued receiving what could be called gifts from fate. More precisely, the main gift came on Monday, when it became clear that another round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington had reached a deadlock, and Donald Trump launched into harsh rhetoric against Iran. According to the American president, the United States never truly exited the conflict with Iran and would continue seeking to ensure the Middle Eastern country remains non-nuclear. The market interpreted this statement as a sign that the U.S. is prepared to launch new strikes against Iran, while hopes for a stable ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz can now be forgotten for the time being. The ceasefire could collapse at any moment, since if negotiations have failed, only one possible outcome remains.

In addition, the pound sterling dealt a "bearish" blow to the euro in both the literal and figurative sense. The United Kingdom has become mired in a new political crisis, with ministers resigning from the government one after another in protest against Keir Starmer's policies. The prime minister himself is also being urged to resign. As a result, it is hardly surprising that the pound is falling like a stone and dragging the euro down with it. This week, everything is playing in favor of the U.S. dollar and the bears.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair once again rebounded from the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1778, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and consolidated below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. Thus, the downward movement continues toward the corrective level at 76.4% – 1.1617. A rebound from this level would halt the euro's decline, while a breakout below it would stimulate further weakening toward 1.1474. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 383 long positions and 3,893 short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated, while over the past six weeks the situation has somewhat stabilized. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 217,000, while short positions amount to 185,000. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, in the long term, major market participants continue to view the euro with considerable interest. Naturally, various global developments — of which there has been no shortage in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has merely been paused rather than ended. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor on economic data, but on developments in Iran.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Industrial Production Change (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for May 15 contains only one entry, which I would not describe as important — especially under current conditions. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is therefore expected to remain weak.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

I previously recommended selling the pair after a rebound from the 1.1786 level and after consolidation below 1.1745 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1666. The target was reached. New selling positions can be considered after a close below 1.1630, with targets at 1.1578 and 1.1514. Buy positions may be considered after a rebound from 1.1630, with targets at 1.1682 and 1.1745.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409–1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bullish. The latest completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few pips, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. Geopolitics is once again supporting the bears, as the market has still not seen the signing of an agreement. At the moment, the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. continues, but the situation is shifting toward escalation and prolonged confrontation. The bears have regained momentum.

The news background on Thursday was mixed, but the bears managed to make the most of the situation. British data on industrial production and economic growth came in neutral and therefore could not have triggered such aggressive bearish attacks. U.S. statistics consisted of only one report on retail sales, which also could not have caused such a sharp drop. Therefore, there is little need to speculate about the reasons for the pound's collapse: politics and geopolitics.

Previously, risk-sensitive currencies like the euro or pound regularly fell because of growing demand for the dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This week, however, politics has been added to geopolitics. In the United Kingdom, prime ministers are resigning one after another as a sign of disagreement with Keir Starmer's policies. Starmer's Labor Party suffered a crushing defeat in local elections, but the Conservatives were not particularly popular either. The election results clearly illustrate whether the British public supports Starmer's political course. At the same time, they show that the public also has little trust in the Conservative Party, which has governed for about fifteen years. Thus, Britain is facing another political crisis since Brexit, and the market is reacting by selling the pound.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair accelerated its decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. A rebound from this level would favor the British currency and some growth toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A consolidation below 1.3327 would increase the probability of further decline toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3159. No new emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 2,996, while the number of short positions increased by 6,265. The gap between long and short positions now effectively stands at 62,000 versus 126,000. For six consecutive weeks in February and March, non-commercial traders actively increased short positions and reduced long positions, creating a strong imbalance between long and short holdings. In recent months, the bears have dominated, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full ceasefire is still far away and the war could resume at any moment. In that case, the bears' advantage could become even stronger.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

U.S. – Industrial Production Change (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for May 15 contains only one entry, which is not especially important under current circumstances. The influence of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday may therefore be extremely weak.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling opportunities were available after a rebound from the 1.3632–1.3641 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3513–1.3526 and 1.3428–1.3437. All targets were reached with a significant margin. Today, selling remains relevant after a close below 1.3349, with targets at 1.3277 and 1.3177. Buying opportunities are possible after a rebound from the 1.3349–1.3355 level, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3454.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.3158–1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866–1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Unlike commodity and FX markets, equities are largely ignoring rising geopolitical risks and a shift in expected timing for the first Fed hike (moved from March to December after strong import prices and retail sales data). Bulls on the S&P are captivated by a 27% rise in corporate profits in Q1 versus Wall Street's early-season expectation of 12%.

Profit margin dynamics

Margins have recorded double-digit growth for a sixth consecutive quarter and are forecast to jump by 22% by year-end, well above March's 14% estimate. Coupled with a 13.9% year-on-year expansion in margins over the last 12 months, this provides a solid fundamental underpinning for the S&P 500 rally.

Flows also support the move: EPFR Global reports global investors have put an average of $14bn into US equities each week over the past 12 weeks. That is roughly half the pace of the December 2024 peak. Adjusted for the S&P's rally, it is about one-third, meaning that there is still plenty of capital available to buy US equities. On that basis, talking about a market bubble seems premature.

Capital flows into US and global equities

When investors get nervous about the S&P 500's apparent disregard for geopolitical risks and the rising probability of monetary tightening, quantitative metrics often provide support — and for now, they are working in buyers' favor.

That said, there is a fly in the ointment. A quarterly survey by the National Association for Business Economics found that only 13% of respondents expect further expansion in profit margins, while 31% anticipate that margins will decline due to higher input costs.

Investors are concerned that rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict will erode future corporate earnings for constituents of the broad market index and, in turn, weigh on fundamental valuations.

Technically, the S&P 500 chart shows an upside breakout through key pivot levels at 7,430 and 7,460, which now act as primary support levels. As long as the price stays above those levels, the tactical bias remains buy-the-dip toward the previously stated target of 7,700.

Today, however, futures on global equity indices reversed sharply lower. Investors who had largely ignored oil above $100/bbl and elevated inflation prints appear to be asking an uncomfortable question: has the rally gone too far?

The MSCI Asia Pacific index tumbled by almost 2%. South Korea's KOSPI, a key proxy for AI-related investment, plunged by roughly 5%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.8%, and European markets opened more than 1% lower. The US dollar rose for a fifth consecutive day, reaffirming its safe-haven status amid Middle East turbulence.

Oil remains the main trigger. Brent broke $107/bbl after US President Donald Trump said the US does not intend to open the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, however, he softened his language, saying that the US would like the strait to be open. Mixed signals have only amplified market nervousness.

The bond market reacted forcefully. Two-year US Treasury yields climbed by four basis points to 4.06%, hitting a 14-month high. Ten-year yields also rose by four basis points to 4.53%. In Japan, 20-year JGB yields moved up to 3.61%, a level not seen since 1996. Rising global yields are adding pressure to equities by making financing more expensive and improving the relative appeal of bonds.

Markets have fully priced out Fed rate cuts for this year and are beginning to factor in a real chance of hikes by year-end. With oil above $100, the question of how long equities can ignore inflationary risk is becoming more pressing.

The Trump–Xi summit added uncertainty rather than clarity. Xi spoke of "new relations" and "many outcomes," but concrete details remain scarce. Tension over Taiwan persists, and the Iran issue appears not to have been substantively addressed — a disappointment for investors hoping for progress on Middle East de-escalation.

As for commodities, gold fell by 1.3% to below $4,600/oz. Sterling weakened for a fifth straight day amid a fresh round of political turmoil around Prime Minister Starmer.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,474. Doing so would validate further upside momentum and open the path to $7,494. Maintaining control above $7,518 would strengthen buyers' position. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,451 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,427 and open the way to $7,404.

Most likely, by the end of the week, gold will lose more than 2%. April inflation data from the US came in worse than expected: the producer price index accelerated to its highest level since 2022, and consumer prices increased the most since 2023. The markets reacted predictably: the dollar strengthened, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds surged, putting pressure on gold from two sides—as a non-yielding asset and a dollar-denominated one.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, negotiations for the Iranian settlement have stalled, and WTI crude oil is trading around $102 per barrel. The energy crisis is dragging on, and inflation remains high, limiting the Federal Reserve's room for maneuver.

It seems that inflation expectations, rising yields, and a strengthening dollar will continue to exert short-term pressure on gold. Since the beginning of the war, gold has depreciated by more than 12% and has been trading within a relatively narrow sideways range. Investors find themselves caught between two fires: inflation risks indicate a future rise in interest rates, which puts pressure on the metal, while concerns about a slowing economy theoretically suggest easing policies that could support gold.

However, it is too early to completely write off gold. Hedge funds may start to increase long positions in the coming days—especially in light of the sharp drop in prices. China is currently doing just that, actively buying gold on the dips.

Silver, in this context, looks considerably better: during May, the metal has appreciated by about 11% on a wave of renewed speculative interest in industrial metals. The gold-to-silver ratio has decreased, signaling the relative cheapness of silver.

I want to remind you that an additional negative factor for the market this week has been India, which has further tightened the rules for gold imports as part of efforts to protect the rupee. This occurred just days after the increase in import duties and impacted demand in the world's second-largest precious metals market.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,607. This will allow them to aim for $4,656, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be $4,708. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control at $4,546. If they succeed, breaking through this range will deliver a severe blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,481 with the potential to reach $4,432.

Meanwhile, Robert Kiyosaki, a well-known author and philanthropist, has again stated that now is the time to invest in real money: gold, silver, BTC, and ETH. There are several reasons for this.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict in Iran, are significantly impacting global energy markets. The volatility of oil prices, driven by supply disruptions and concerns over further escalation, inevitably leads to increased costs for businesses worldwide. Companies facing rising fuel and raw material costs are forced to pass these costs on to consumers by raising prices for their goods and services. This process is one of the main driving of inflation, progressively devaluing the purchasing power of savings. Thus, according to Kiyosaki, the dollar is not the best investment.

However, the crisis in Iran is just one of the factors contributing to the overall price rise. The national debt will compel the US government to print even more fake money. "Please protect yourself, your family, and your money. Invest in Gold, Silver, BTC, and ETH. These are real money that will increase their purchasing power as fake money continues to steal wealth from those who do nothing," Kiyosaki wrote.

As for the intraday strategy for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to focus on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the long-term bullish market, which has not gone away.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

#1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $80,600, with a target price of $81,600. At $81,600, I will exit the buy trades and sell back immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $80,200 in the absence of any market reaction to its breakout back toward the levels of $80,600 and $81,600.

Selling Scenario

#1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $80,200, with a target to decline to $79,500. At $79,500, I will exit the sell trades and buy back immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $80,600 in the absence of any market reaction to its breakout back toward $80,300 and $79,500.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

#1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,259, with a target price of $2,294. At $2,294, I will exit the buy trades and sell back immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary at $2,242 in the absence of any market reaction to its breakout back toward $2,259 and $2,294.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,242, with a target to decline to $2,207. At $2,207, I will exit the sell trades and buy back immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary at $2,259 in the absence of any market reaction to its breakout back toward $2,242 and $2,207.

The price test at 157.99 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 158.33.

The data released today showed that corporate goods prices in Japan rose the most in 12 years in April, another sign that the war in Iran is intensifying inflationary pressures. All of this led to an increase in the yields of Japanese government bonds across the yield curve, exerting strong pressure on the yen against the dollar.

The rise in commodity prices, fueled by geopolitical events, is putting significant pressure on the Japanese economy. Companies are forced to raise prices on their products to compensate for increased costs, which in turn affects final consumers. This inflationary impulse, although not as sharp as in some other countries, nevertheless creates certain risks for economic growth stability.

Against the backdrop of increasing inflationary pressure, the Bank of Japan faces a difficult choice. The traditional accommodative monetary policy aimed at stimulating the economy has already come into conflict with the need to contain price growth. This raises questions about the long-term effectiveness of current measures and forces investors to reassess their expectations for future monetary policy, creating even greater uncertainty in the currency market, as reflected in the yen's weakening.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 158.70 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.27 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.27, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and on serious dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.44 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 158.70 and 159.27.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 158.44 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 157.93, where I intend to exit the shorts and also open longs immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers may return at any moment, especially with any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.70 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 158.44 and 157.93.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The price test at 1.3508 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell to the target level of 1.3458.

The pound fell sharply after news of a potential leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer from Andy Burnham, one of the most respected politicians in the Labour Party, caused turbulence in the financial market. This development seriously questions not only the stability of the current government but also its ability to effectively manage the state debt, which is currently under close scrutiny from economists and investors. The uncertainty surrounding future party leadership generates concerns regarding the consistency of economic policy. Investors, whose decisions largely depend on predictability and stability, have begun withdrawing their assets, leading to a rapid devaluation of the national currency. Such political upheavals cannot have long-term consequences for the UK's financial stability; however, they exert strong pressure on traders and investors in the moment.

Today, the lack of significant macroeconomic indicators from the United Kingdom in the first half of the day may provide the British pound with a short-term reprieve from recent declines. In the context of internal political instability related to a potential challenge to the Prime Minister, the absence of new reports might help stabilize the market, allowing it to digest prior information and its long-term implications. This period of calm is likely to lead to a temporary halt in active sales of the pound. However, it should be understood that this is merely a temporary quiet phase. The accumulated pressure on the pound, driven by political uncertainty and concerns about managing state debt, remains.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy pounds today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3368 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to the level of 1.3416 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3416, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions back in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pound growth can only be anticipated following good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3336 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.3368 and 1.3416.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell pounds today after updating the level to 1.3336 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3278 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3368 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3336 and 1.3278.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.