Gold (XAU/USD) remained below the $4,260 resistance level during the early European session on Friday, while holding above the lowest level since November recorded the previous day. Conflicting rhetoric regarding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran has boosted demand for the U.S. dollar, which remains a key factor weighing on precious metal prices.

Additional pressure comes from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which continues to encourage capital flows away from non-yielding assets such as gold.

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had already been reached and that a final document could be signed in the near future, possibly over the weekend. However, that optimism quickly faded after Iranian officials denied that a final agreement had been reached. Moreover, reports indicate that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, rejected the agreement proposed by the United States.

The situation has been further complicated by statements from Iran's Foreign Ministry indicating that several key issues remain unresolved, including control over the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of blocked assets, according to Fars News Agency.

Tensions have also increased following reports that Iranian forces blocked the passage of a tanker through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz without prior coordination, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Tehran's position. At the same time, Fox News reported that U.S. forces intercepted and destroyed two Iranian attack drones near the strait. These developments continue to support the geopolitical risk premium, keeping oil prices elevated and reinforcing inflation concerns.

Against this backdrop, signs of renewed inflationary pressure are emerging in the United States, strengthening the case for maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data released earlier this week pointed to a renewed acceleration in inflation, reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by year-end. This continues to support the U.S. dollar and increase pressure on gold.

Nevertheless, market participants may refrain from aggressively opening new short positions in XAU/USD, preferring to wait for further developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Even so, the precious metal remains on track to post a second consecutive week of notable losses.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a short-term bearish bias, remaining below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Momentum indicators remain in negative territory, suggesting that bears continue to hold the upper hand. Resistance remains at $4,260, while key support is located at $4,015.

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The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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From a technical perspective, gold maintains a short-term bearish bias despite the current recovery, remaining below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Friday's volatility appears to be primarily driven by short-covering activity.

The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, with its histogram positioned below the signal line and continuing to print negative readings. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating near the 30 level, which marks the boundary of the oversold zone, indicating that downward pressure remains in place despite the partial recovery from recent lows.

In terms of resistance levels, the nearest resistance zone is located between $4,230 and $4,260, followed by the psychological $4,300 level and the 200-day EMA and SMA, which represent more significant barriers. A break above this area would open the way for further gains.

On the support side, the key level remains the recent low near $4,015. A break below this level could signal the development of a deeper corrective decline.

The rally followed President Donald Trump's statement that the United States had ended the war with Iran. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 3.5%— its largest gain in two months — while South Korea's Kospi surged 8.4%. Futures on US indexes point to a continuation of the rally, and European markets are priced to open about 1.8% higher. Brent crude fell about 2% to roughly $88.50 a barrel.

Trump said talks had taken place at the highest levels of Iranian leadership and suggested a signing could occur this weekend in Europe with Vice President Vance attending. The shift was sharp: a few hours earlier he had threatened new strikes on Iran and seizure of its oil infrastructure. Iran has not yet officially confirmed any agreement — the Fars news agency reported that the text has not been approved — which suggests markets are buying hope rather than a signed document, an important caveat for those who have seen this scenario repeat over recent months.

The bond market reaction was instructive. Fed hike expectations shifted from December of this year to the first quarter of 2027 — falling oil prices reduce the inflation narrative and with it pressure on the Federal Reserve. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.46%. If an agreement is indeed signed over the weekend, Kevin Warsh will face a materially more comfortable backdrop for his first FOMC meeting on Monday–Tuesday: energy-driven inflation should begin to ease, making a tough message to markets less inevitable.

A second major theme of the week is the SpaceX IPO. The company was priced at $135 a share, implying a valuation of $1.77 trillion, and raised $75 billion in the largest IPO in history. Derivatives on online platforms point to a market capitalization near $2.4 trillion on day one of trading — the market is pricing more than a 35 percent gain from the offering price.

SpaceX is only the start of the wave. Anthropic and OpenAI appear to be preparing for public listings as well. Combined with a possible end to the Iran war, this could provide a very strong fundamental base for the second half of the year — if, and only if, negotiations result in a signed agreement this weekend.

A technical outlook for the S&P 500 suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome resistance at $7,381. Doing so will demonstrate upside momentum and open the way to $7,404. Maintaining control above $7,427 would further strengthen the buyers' case. If downside pressure materializes on a fall in risk appetite, buyers must defend the $7,355 area. A break below that level will quickly push the instrument back to $7,339 and open the path to $7,319.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The most recently completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak, while the latest downward wave (which is still developing) broke the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains bearish. Bulls may launch a new offensive only if Iran and the United States reach an interim agreement, cease violating the terms of the ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Without these developments, further appreciation of the euro will be extremely difficult.

There was no shortage of important global events on Thursday. In my view, the most significant was the ECB meeting, as the eurozone regulator tightened monetary policy for the first time in the past three years. I believe this event should have been a major market catalyst. However, it seems I was the only one who held that view. The euro received no support from traders following the interest rate increase, and market participants largely ignored both the rate hike and Christine Lagarde's remarks regarding the possibility of continued policy tightening through the end of the year.

The ECB President stated that several scenarios remain possible regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and the most pessimistic of them would force the Monetary Policy Committee to continue tightening policy. Inflation remains elevated and continues to show upward pressure due to rising energy prices. If the conflict between Iran and the United States persists, oil and natural gas prices are likely to continue increasing, fueling further inflationary pressures.

Thus, the ECB did more than simply raise interest rates in June—it effectively initiated a new monetary tightening cycle. In my view, this should have provided a strong reason for bulls to take action. However, they only became active after comments from Donald Trump, who reversed his previous stance on military action against Iran and once again spoke about the possibility of reaching an agreement in the near future.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1667 and resumed its decline within a descending trend channel. A consolidation above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1569 would support further gains in the euro toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1667. I will begin to consider a bullish trend only after the euro closes above the channel. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 12,387 Long positions and closed 7,053 Short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war involving Iran, while over the past ten weeks the balance has stabilized amid a pause in hostilities in the Middle East.

The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 235,000, while Short positions amount to 186,000. The gap is once again widening in favor of the bulls.

Overall, large market participants continue to maintain a favorable long-term outlook on the euro. Naturally, global events of various kinds—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains firmly focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, the direction of the euro and the dollar will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, or on economic data, and more on developments involving Iran.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

The June 12 economic calendar contains only one event, which is unlikely to be considered significant. As a result, the impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be very limited or absent altogether.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.1578 level, targeting 1.1514. New short positions may be considered upon another rebound from 1.1578 with the same target. Long positions could be initiated following a rebound from 1.1514, targeting 1.1578. Additional long positions may be considered after a close above 1.1578, targeting 1.1630.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

From a technical standpoint, the absence of positive news from the Middle East could lead to a renewed drop in gold prices.

Technical Analysis and Trading Idea:

The price is currently below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, below the 5-period SMA, but still above the 14-period SMA. The RSI is below the 50% level and is moving horizontally. The Stochastic is turning downward.

I believe it is worth selling gold after a decline below 4150.50, with a potential drop to 4111.80.

As soon as Trump declared for what seems like the 34th time the end of the war with Iran, the markets exploded. "Today, we ended the war with Iran," the president stated during his evening tele-town hall, adding, "We got everything we wanted."

This led to a significant drop in the dollar against a number of risk assets. Just yesterday morning, Trump promised to deliver a "very strong" blow to Iran and threatened to seize the country's oil infrastructure. By the evening of the same day, he announced the end of the strikes and said that Iran's supreme leader had agreed to a deal. According to Axios, the memorandum of understanding includes a 60-day truce (inclusive of Lebanon), immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz without payment for passage, easing sanctions on Iran, and lifting the American naval blockade. Nuclear negotiations will continue during the truce. Trump characterized this document as a very strong memorandum of understanding, albeit somewhat conceptual.

It is worth noting that the Iranian side has not officially confirmed this. The Fars agency reported that the text of the agreement has not yet been approved by officials. Notably, among the leaders Trump spoke with on the phone—UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel, Turkey—Iran is absent. Sources indicate that negotiations are ongoing, with Qatar playing a key role, and that both sides are using military exchanges as leverage—meaning the recent strikes were part of the negotiating process, not its conclusion.

Israel has also outlined its red lines. Netanyahu conveyed to Trump that the final agreement must include the removal of enriched uranium, dismantling enrichment infrastructure, restrictions on missile production, and cessation of Iranian support for regional proxies. This is a serious agenda for the negotiations, which, according to Trump, should conclude this weekend in Europe, with Vice President Vance's participation.

All this indicates that the market is once again trading on hope—and doing so with enthusiasm. However, those who have been following this story for the past four months remember that Trump has repeatedly declared a deal imminent, only for it to fall through. The key disagreements regarding the nuclear program and Iranian assets remain unresolved. If the signing does take place over the weekend, it will be a turning point for global markets, inflation, and monetary policy. If it fails again, the pullback will be painful, and the dollar will quickly regain all its positions within the first minutes of trading on Monday.

Technical Picture of EUR/USD

Currently, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1580 level. Only this will allow them to aim for a test at 1.1615. From there, it is possible to reach 1.1645, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be the high of 1.1665. In the event of a decrease in trading instruments, I expect serious actions from major buyers only around 1.1555. If no one is present there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1530 or open long positions from 1.1505.

Technical Picture of GBP/USD

As for the GBP/USD technical picture, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance level at 1.3425. Only this will allow them to target 1.3450, above which a breakthrough will be quite difficult. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3475. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control over 1.3380. If this is successful, the breakout will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3360, with prospects of reaching 1.3330.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure. After this structure is completed, the pair may transition to an upward wave sequence, and at the moment the structure appears complete. Therefore, a rise in the euro can be expected from the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. However, without geopolitical support, the euro cannot count on favorable market sentiment.

The EUR/USD pair gained 40 basis points on Thursday, with most of the movement occurring during the evening session. What do you think caused the euro to rally by 80 basis points from the day's low? No, it was not the ECB meeting, Christine Lagarde's speech, or the first monetary policy tightening since 2023. The rally was triggered by Donald Trump, who once again managed to accomplish the impossible by making several completely contradictory statements during the day.

If the U.S. president were speaking about upcoming elections, new legislative initiatives, or policy proposals, the market would likely ignore his constantly changing rhetoric. However, the White House leader comments daily on developments in the Middle East, over which he has direct influence. Put simply, Trump shares his plans with the markets several times a day, and those plans constantly change. As a result, the market continues to swing from one direction to another.

On Thursday morning, Trump was planning new strikes against Iran, accusing Tehran of delaying negotiations and refusing to reach an agreement. By the evening, however, he announced that new strikes had been canceled because an agreement with Tehran could be signed in the near future.

The day before, Trump had actively ordered strikes against Iran. Earlier still, he stated that no further strikes would take place because, according to him, senior Iranian officials had contacted him and requested that he refrain from doing so. Such statements are often made only hours apart. Therefore, Thursday's EUR/USD rally was entirely attributable to Trump's comments.

How Will Events Develop From Here?

We believe a turning point is approaching. Every day, the market receives further confirmation that Trump's statements cannot be relied upon under any circumstances. The wave structure suggests the formation of a corrective upward wave sequence, while the 1.1513 level has already withstood selling pressure twice. In my view, the probability of further gains in the instrument remains high.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a bullish trend segment (lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a bearish trend segment that may already be complete. In my view, this is a reasonably favorable time to consider establishing long positions.

The failed attempt to break below the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, together with the completed appearance of the bearish trend segment, allows us to assume that the instrument may transition to an upward wave sequence with targets located around the 1.1700 level and higher.

On the higher time frame, a bullish trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near term, wave C is expected to form, with targets located near 1.1352, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C structure is completed, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. Absolute certainty regarding market direction never exists and never will. Always remember to use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical news to launch a full-scale advance. The most recently completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. The geopolitical backdrop is currently highly uncertain, giving neither bulls nor bears a clear advantage. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after the June 5 high is surpassed.

Thursday's news background consisted solely of geopolitical developments. From the very beginning of the day, traders favored selling GBP/USD and buying the U.S. dollar after Donald Trump stated that Iran would be destroyed in the near future. His comments were supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. However, by the evening, the U.S. president's tone had become more positive. He abandoned his plans to "tear Iran apart" and unexpectedly stated that the sides could soon reach an excellent agreement. His remarks caused genuine confusion in Tehran, which issued an official statement this morning saying it had no idea what the U.S. president was referring to. According to Iranian officials, no agreement currently exists, and negotiations have been suspended due to the escalation of the conflict this week. Thus, the market undoubtedly reacted to Trump's comments regarding a deal with Iran, but did not place significant confidence in them. For several weeks now, Trump has been promising a peace agreement, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to hostilities. In reality, the world continues to witness the exact opposite. Therefore, the upside potential for both the euro and the pound remains limited.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and advanced toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and imply a moderate decline toward 1.3327. A consolidation above 1.3429 would increase the likelihood of further gains for the pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,291, while short positions declined by 13,471. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 53,000 versus 110,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bearish advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, developments will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the prospect of a prolonged conflict, but the latest news suggests that a ceasefire may still be achievable, although it is unlikely to be easy or quick.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 12 contains only one event, which I do not consider significant. Therefore, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be negligible.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.3408 level on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3349–1.3355 level. The target was reached. New short positions may be considered on another rebound from 1.3408 or on a close below the 1.3349–1.3355 level.

Long positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3349–1.3355 support level, targeting 1.3408. Alternatively, long positions may be opened after a close above 1.3408, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 resistance level.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Yesterday, Donald Trump made a statement that instantly shifted sentiment in the financial markets: the US has agreed to end the war with Iran. According to the president, an agreement has essentially been reached—Iran will not obtain nuclear weapons—and in the coming days, the parties will resolve all remaining issues.

For the markets, this signifies de-escalation of the very geopolitical conflict that has been a major source of pressure on risk assets since late May. The recent US strikes on Iran and sanctions against the agency controlling the Strait of Hormuz were what triggered the collapse of the cryptocurrency market in June.

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum reacted to Trump's statements with a swift rise, as the market quickly began to reprice the geopolitical risk premium priced in over the past weeks. The logic is straightforward: resolving the conflict with Iran alleviates the threat of interruptions in oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil traffic passes. This implies a potential decrease in inflationary pressure from energy prices—a factor that drove the May CPI to 4.2% and prompted the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates. Lower inflation expectations will lead to a softer monetary rhetoric, thus improving conditions for risk assets in general and cryptocurrencies in particular.

If an agreement is signed in the coming days, the market will gain two positive impulses simultaneously: geopolitical de-escalation and decreased inflationary pressure. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have endured seventeen consecutive red days in ETFs and a drop below $60,000, this could be the catalyst needed for a reversal.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $63,400, targeting $64,300. Near $64,300, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately for a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be purchased from the lower boundary of $62,700 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting levels $63,400 and $64,300.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching an entry point around $62,700, targeting a drop to $61,700. Near $61,700, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of $63,400 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above, targeting levels $62,700 and $61,700.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,662, targeting $1,688. Near $1,688, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately for a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be purchased from the lower boundary of $1,647 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting levels $1,662 and $1,688.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching an entry point around $1,647, targeting a drop to $1,615. Near $1,615, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary of $1,662 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above, targeting levels $1,647 and $1,615.

The price test at 160.47 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell dollars. As a result, the pair moved down to the target level of 160.14.

The yen exhibited impressive growth yesterday, while the US dollar weakened. This reversal was driven by a promising statement from President Donald Trump about his intention to make significant progress toward concluding a deal to end the war with Iran. Such a move, implying a shift from military confrontation to diplomatic resolution, naturally increased the yen's appeal; however, its growth was short-lived.

Focus will continue to be on the Middle East and the actions of the Bank of Japan, which has recently been strongly inclined to conduct currency interventions to strengthen the yen, as its target level of 160 yen has long been reached, and the USD/JPY pair shows no signs of falling below this level without intervention.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 160.38 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 160.60 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 160.60, I intend to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.25, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 160.38 and 160.60.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 160.25 (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.02, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers may return at any moment; a hint from the central bank is all that is needed. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.38, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 160.25 and 160.02.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3350 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling pounds. As a result, the pair decreased by 25 pips.

However, a sharp strengthening of the British pound and a weakening of the US dollar followed, attributed to geopolitical factors and Trump's statements regarding the Middle East.

Today in the UK, a number of macroeconomic indicators are set to be released, which could significantly impact the national currency's exchange rate. In the first half of the day, data on changes in gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, and the goods trade balance will be published. Unfortunately, analyst forecasts for these indicators do not inspire optimism—weak figures are expected. Under these circumstances, discussing significant growth for the British pound is likely premature. Weak GDP indicators may signal a slowdown or even stagnation in the British economy, which, in turn, undermines investor confidence and decreases the attractiveness of the national currency. Negative trends in industrial production are also unlikely to boost the pound, as industrial production is a key component of the country's economic activity.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3417 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 1.3455 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 1.3455, I intend to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the pound to grow today after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3393, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3417 and 1.3455.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level at 1.3393 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3355, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3417, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3393 and 1.3355.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1522 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair dropped nearly 20 pips.

The market appears to be more focused on geopolitical developments than on monetary policy. The European Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates, while a step toward normalization, was overshadowed by statements from US President Donald Trump. His words about de-escalating the conflict with Iran elicited a stronger reaction from the euro than the ECB's actions, highlighting investors' current nervousness and their preference for reacting to political signals rather than fundamental economic data. This indicates that in an environment of heightened uncertainty surrounding the Middle Eastern conflict, market players are inclined to respond to news that can rapidly change the geopolitical landscape. The ECB's actions, as part of a long-term strategy to combat inflation, are perceived as less significant compared to possible military actions or their cancellation.

Today's economic calendar promises to be eventful, especially in the first half of the day, when traders and analysts will focus on the release of consumer price index data from three of the largest eurozone economies—Germany, Italy, and Spain. These indicators traditionally serve as a barometer of inflationary pressure in the region and can significantly influence market sentiment and the ECB's future rhetoric. The anticipated CPI data are expected to provide fresh insights into price dynamics, which remain a key factor influencing the ECB's monetary policy. Persisting inflation, even if showing signs of slowing, may heighten expectations for further monetary policy tightening, including the possibility of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period. All of this will present a new reason to buy the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be made upon reaching a price of around 1.1579 (green line on the chart), with a target to reach 1.1620. At point 1.1620, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect euro growth today after good data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1556 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposite levels of 1.1579 and 1.1620.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros today after reaching the 1.1556 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1510, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return only in case of very weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1579 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1556 and 1.1510.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank took the expected step of raising the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. At first glance, this move could have triggered significant fluctuations in the currency market; however, to many's surprise, the euro showed only minor gains. The main driver of the euro's movement was not the European Central Bank's actions but rather statements from US President Donald Trump. His sudden announcement that he no longer intends to take further military action against Iran had a far more substantial impact on trader sentiment. This shift in US foreign policy seemingly reduced geopolitical risks, which in turn led to market stabilization and weakened demand for traditional safe havens like the dollar.

Today promises to be eventful, as important macroeconomic data is set to be released from key Eurozone economies. Consumer price index figures from Germany, Italy, and Spain are expected. These indicators play a critical role in assessing inflationary processes in the region and could, consequently, significantly influence the ECB's decisions regarding future monetary policy.

As for the British pound, figures on changes in UK GDP over the last three months, industrial production, and the trade balance are also expected in the first half of the day. The released GDP data is likely to show a slowdown in economic growth, driven by both internal and external factors. A decline in industrial production reflects difficulties in the manufacturing sector, a key driver of the economy. These challenges could include global supply chain issues and domestic challenges related to the energy crisis and inflationary pressure. Collectively, these macroeconomic indicators will create an unfavorable backdrop for the British pound.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' expectations, it is best to utilize the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Long positions on the breakout of the level 1.1588 could lead to the euro rising toward 1.1617 and 1.1645.
• Short positions on the breakout of the level 1.1556 could lead to the euro falling toward 1.1529 and 1.1506.

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Longs on the breakout of the level 1.3424 could lead to the pound rising toward 1.3452 and 1.3478.
• Shorts on the breakout of the level 1.3388 could lead to the pound falling toward 1.3359 and 1.3331.

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Longs on the breakout of the level 160.43 could lead to the dollar rising toward 160.60 and 160.90.
• Shorts on the breakout of the level 160.24 could lead to the dollar declining toward 160.02 and 159.83.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1592 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1552 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3421 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3390 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7052 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7024 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3990 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3960 on a return to this level.

Bitcoin is trading around $63,645, above the 21 SMA, and above the 0/8 Murray level, with a positive bias. However, BTC may struggle to continue rising as we observe a resistance level around $64,000.

Given that Bitcoin is showing a positive signal, we could continue buying in the coming days until it reaches the strong resistance of the 1/8 Murray level around $66,625.

Bitcoin is trading within an ascending trend channel formed on June 5th and could technically reach the upper band of this channel in the coming days. From that area, it could resume its bearish cycle.

According to the H4 chart, the area to take short positions could be when Bitcoin reaches $65,625 or the upper band of the ascending trend channel around $66,000. A break below this zone would be seen as a sell signal with targets around the Murray 0/8 level at $62,500.

If Bitcoin doesn't have the strength to rise to $66,000, we could expect it to form a double-top pattern around $64,000. It could then reverse bearishly and return to the $62,000 level around the 21-period SMA. Even if BTC breaks below the ascending trend channel, it could return to the $59,375 level.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for Bitcoin to break above $64,000 and then buy or sell below $64,000, with targets at $62,500 and around the psychological level of $60,000.

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1574 with a bullish bias following a strong move above the psychological level of 1.15, and it is likely to face resistance to further upside.

The euro is likely to reach the 1.1596 resistance zone, which coincides with the upper band of the downtrend channel formed since May 22.

The euro formed a double-bottom pattern around the psychological level of 1.15, which provided an opportunity to continue buying. From that level, EUR/USD reached the 1.1589 area.

Based on this pattern, the euro could break through the strong resistance at 1.1596 and continue rising in the coming days, reaching the 200 EMA at 1.1628. If the upward momentum persists, EUR/USD could rise further to the 8/8 Murray line around 1.1718.

We could see a technical correction toward the 21 SMA at 1.1548 in the coming hours; this zone could be viewed as a clear buy signal with targets at 1.1596 and 1.1628.

Yesterday, we mentioned the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern. Given yesterday's events, the euro broke above this pattern, so we believe it could continue rising in the coming days; therefore, our outlook is now bullish.

Meanwhile, experts have found a new reason to believe Bitcoin will soon enter a new bullish trend that could take it to $400,000. According to the "Power Law," Bitcoin is currently trading below its fair value of $134,000 and below its "lower range" of $67,000. The upper range is set at $404,000. What is the "Power Law," and what do these levels and ranges represent? Essentially, it is an ascending long-term channel with three boundaries, including the middle range. It is not exactly a channel; it more closely resembles a hyperbola. However, the essence is similar. Since 2017, Bitcoin has hit the lower boundary of this hyperbola three times, and in 2026 (now), it has reached it for the fourth time. The upper boundary has been hit only twice since 2017, which indicates that Bitcoin's long-term growth is slowing.

However, analyst Mark Harvey believes that Bitcoin rarely deviates from this model. Every time Bitcoin reached the "bottom" of the hyperbola, a powerful recovery began. We would like to remind traders of several important points. First, any model eventually becomes irrelevant. Second, Harvey does not explain what constitutes "fair value" and why it is set at $134,000, a level that Bitcoin has never reached in its history. Third, any channel is eventually broken, and any bullish trend comes to an end. Fourth, past profitability does not guarantee future profitability.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend and correction against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of an upward trend emerging. The latest bearish FVG formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range; therefore, this area serves as a point of interest (POI) for short positions in the coming weeks. The cryptocurrency may correct in the near future on the 4-hour timeframe, so if traders wish to trade against the trend, they can consider long positions from bullish patterns.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe, the formation of a downward trend, which began in August of last year, continues. The key pattern for selling has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we previously warned, the movement triggered by this signal can be strong and prolonged. We do not believe it has ended, as there are no signs of the downward trend in either Bitcoin or Ethereum abating. In the near future, Ethereum may resume its decline with targets at $1,391 and $788. An upward correction can be expected when at least some bullish pattern or other signs of a price reversal to the upside are formed on at least the 4-hour timeframe. Among the new POI areas for short positions, we note the FVG in the $1,624-$1,720 range. If this pattern is ignored, traders will receive a signal for a correction.

Notes on Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Change in trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Losses, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to these areas in continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but breaks through impulsively, then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position to gather liquidity in order to form their own position in the opposite direction.

Yesterday evening, the cryptocurrency market gained a little momentum, albeit briefly and not significantly. Donald Trump announced that new strikes on Iran were canceled because the parties are close to reaching an agreement. This statement came on the same day he announced planned strikes on Iran for Friday and accused Tehran of dragging out negotiations. Whether to believe the American leader this time is up to you. Nevertheless, many experts immediately noted a "sharp rise" in Bitcoin, which is barely discernible even on the 4-hour timeframe. We believe that yesterday's minor strengthening of the first cryptocurrency has little to do with geopolitics, or at least it is not the main reason. Bitcoin has reached a point where a small correction is overdue. The last correction was extremely slow and lasted three months. Thus, we may be awaiting a new, protracted period of weak growth in Bitcoin before another collapse.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has resumed forming a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as descending, and the CHOCH line has been moved to $82,800, with a new Lower Low (LL) formed. Only above this level can the downward trend be considered completed. Since there are still no signs of an upward trend reversal, we expect the decline to continue. On the daily timeframe, a new bearish FVG has formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range. Other FVG can be identified during the current Bitcoin decline, but this one is the most obvious. Thus, new sell signals may be formed within this pattern in the future.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has begun to show signs of a correction. The CHOCH line, which supports the downward trend, is at $78,000, but it may need to be moved lower soon. This requires at least a minimal correction. Bearish patterns can be used to open new short positions, but the current decline is so strong that it is better to focus on the daily timeframe for these strategies. As for buying deals, these are also possible from bullish patterns on the 4-hour timeframe, but one should understand that strong growth in a downward trend is unlikely. The best-case scenario involves short-term, small-volume long positions.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% level on the Fibonacci retracement from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of the beginning of an upward trend. The last bearish FVG was formed in the area of $68,000 - $70,700; therefore, this area serves as a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency may correct in the near future, so if traders wish to trade against the trend, they can consider long positions from bullish patterns.

Notes on Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Change in trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Losses, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to these areas in continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but breaks through impulsively, then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position to gather liquidity in order to form their own position in the opposite direction.

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, and the most significant ones will be released in the UK. Recall that in Britain, macroeconomic data is released in blocks rather than individually. Today's reports on April GDP and industrial production will be published. Given the current circumstances, where the market pays no attention to the European Central Bank's tightening monetary policy, the US inflation reports, and other equally important reports, we do not expect any market reaction to the less significant data from Great Britain. In the US, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will also be released, though it is unlikely to interest traders.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, we can highlight the speech of the Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. However, the day before (that is, yesterday), the European Central Bank decided to raise all three rates, but the market did not respond at all. Thus, Nagel is unlikely to convey anything new to the market, and the market is unlikely to monitor Nagel's speech while the White House continues to flood the news with fantastical statements.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to leave much to be desired, as Iran and the US have again moved closer to resuming conflict and failing negotiations. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have concluded at least five times this week alone and have resumed just as many times. The conflict flares up with new intensity and then subsides. Leading this parade is Donald Trump. He wants to launch new strikes, promises a deal soon, and then declares the negotiations a failure while blaming Iran for the breakdown. We are virtually certain that 90% of the information coming from Trump is inaccurate. Nevertheless, the market continues to react sensitively to every new statement from the American president.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite actively if Trump makes a few more contradictory statements. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1584-1.1594, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains a key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair also exhibited notable trading movement on Thursday. Firstly, the British pound has remained within the sideways channel of 1.3331-1.3476 for almost a month now. Secondly, Donald Trump once again changed his rhetoric regarding Iran twice in one day (and this is not even the maximum possible). In the morning, the US president accused Iran of derailing negotiations and announced new powerful strikes, while in the evening, he announced that a superb deal with Iran was imminent and canceled the new attacks. It is worth mentioning that in Iran, they continue to wonder what Trump is talking about, as they have not heard of any agreement. Nevertheless, the market has taken Trump's latest promises as a reason to start selling the dollar again. After all, how else can the market react if the war is about to end and the Strait of Hormuz will be opened? The market continues to trip over the same rake. Today, Trump will likely announce that he has changed his mind, Iran is once again dragging out negotiations, displaying aggression, and therefore orders for new strikes will be given. And the dollar will rise again.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, three very good trading signals were formed. During the European trading session, the pair bounced from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. In the American session, it bounced from the area of 1.3319-1.3331, then, ten minutes later, it broke through the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Thus, novice traders could open two trades (one short and one long), each of which would have made a profit.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has been trading flat for a month, as the geopolitical situation remains consistently bad, neither improving nor worsening. Without a resumption of full-scale war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect the growth it saw in February-March. Individual events may still prompt further strengthening, but we do not believe the market will trigger a new wave of risk-off flows into the dollar. Under Trump, the dollar itself is a risky asset.

On Friday, novice traders can open new short positions targeting 1.3319-1.3331 if the price consolidates below the 1.3380-1.3386 area. A bounce in the 1.3380-1.3386 area will allow opening long positions targeting 1.3456-1.3476.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be conducted at the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. On Friday, reports on GDP and industrial production are scheduled for release in the UK, but it is well understood that these data hold little meaning right now. In the US, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will be published.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair demonstrated super interesting movements on Thursday. The events of the day are worthy of the most honorable pages and sections of any trading textbook. Let's start with the European Central Bank meeting, where it was decided to raise rates for the first time in three years. Although this decision was known well in advance, the market did not react to it either last week or yesterday. Thus, at this time, central bank rate hikes are much less significant events than the recent shift in Donald Trump's rhetoric towards Iran.

Yesterday morning, information came in about new US strikes on Iran, and Trump accused Tehran of dragging out negotiations, announcing new strikes on Friday. Later in the evening, the US president stated that the strikes on Iran were canceled because... the parties are close to reaching a tremendous agreement. Curtain. The American comedy is not just gaining momentum; it is becoming funnier with each act. The market reacted to Trump's new statements with dollar sales. By 85 pips. That's all you need to know about how the market is moving right now.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Thursday. During the American session, after several hours of convulsions, the pair finally broke through the 1.1527-1.1531 area, but the drop did not last long. Trump once again took center stage, triggering a nearly 100-pip rise and forming a buy signal. During the night, the price bounced off the 1.1584-1.1594 area.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the flat has ended, and the downward trend has resumed after three weeks of stagnation, but any further US dollar growth will depend entirely on developments in geopolitical events. If full-scale war resumes in the Middle East, the dollar will continue to rise. If Tehran and Washington return to the negotiating table, this will support risk currencies.

On Friday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1527-1.1531 if the price bounces from the 1.1584-1.1594 area. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the 1.1584-1.1594 area, targeting 1.1655-1.1666.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Friday, no important events are scheduled in the Eurozone, while the only report in the US will be the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. However, the market's attention will again be directed towards geopolitics. There are currently no other factors affecting the market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded calmly on Thursday, moving slowly and without much concern. Looking at the chart below, in the past 18 days, volatility exceeded 88 pips only once and surpassed 80 pips 3 times. 80 pips per day is certainly not insignificant, but over the previous 13 days, the GBP/USD pair traded more volatile than 88 pips on 11 occasions. Thus, the decline in market activity is evident. At the same time, the British pound has stopped declining. Recall that the key drop in recent weeks was not linked to geopolitics. It occurred between May 11 and 18, during which time the UK faced another political crisis, the consumer price index, contrary to forecasts and common sense, began to slow, and, in general opinion, the Bank of England abandoned its hawkish outlook. These three events led to the collapse of the British pound.

However, more than three weeks have passed since then, and the British pound has only collapsed once—when the US Nonfarm Payrolls report was published. For the rest of the time, the pound has either risen or remained stable. So why is the market not reacting to escalating news from the Middle East? Recall that this week, Iran distinguished itself by shooting down an American military helicopter. Donald Trump has issued bombing orders for Iran twice (which the US military successfully executed), and Iran has begun once again to bomb American military bases in the region. The geopolitical factor has a shelf life. In recent weeks, we have been consistently stating that the influence of geopolitics on the market is weakening. Traders are still closely monitoring the Iranian case, but are no longer prepared to respond to every new attack in the Middle East or every new promise from Trump to sign a deal with Iran.

The key points of this conflict remain:

1. The conflict persists.
2. Negotiations are nevertheless ongoing.
3. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
4. The parties cannot reach an agreement.

Thus, all attacks in the Middle East, provocations, new threats, and promises from Trump have no impact on the key points listed above. We believe that only changes to one of these four points can prompt traders to act. All other news represents ordinary noise.

Shifting to the daily timeframe makes it clear that the GBP/USD pair has been trading in a range for nine months. While this may not be the most classic flat that traders have ever seen, the movement is sideways, and this is a fact. Therefore, no matter how much some may want it, the dollar cannot show a trend under these circumstances, even with a favorable fundamental and geopolitical backdrop. We still do not expect any significant strengthening of the American currency. The dollar's maximum right now is a correction.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days as of June 12 is 85 pips, which is considered "average." On Friday, June 12, we expect the pair to move within the range bounded by 1.3253 and 1.3423. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned upwards, indicating a potential recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator entered the overbought area, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.

Closest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3306
• S2 – 1.3245
• S3 – 1.3184

Closest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3367
• R2 – 1.3428
• R3 – 1.3489

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect growth in the US dollar in the long term. However, 2026 appears to be quite positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price below the moving average will allow for trading bearish with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3253. Market conditions are frequently changing, and the market continues to primarily track geopolitical news, which is not uniform.

Notes on Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate a probable price channel within which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator: its entry into oversold (below -250) or overbought (above +250) areas indicates an approaching trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite sluggishly on Thursday, despite a truly significant event—the European Central Bank meeting and the first rate hike since 2023. Recall that the ECB was essentially forced to raise refinancing rates to curb the uncontrolled growth of consumer prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, which has driven a sharp rise in energy prices. At the same time, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England is preparing for policy tightening, although they will hold their meetings next week.

On one hand, the market's passivity is easily explained. The ECB's rate hike was known in advance, and the market could have priced it in ahead of time. However, it did not do so, as the euro has rarely shown growth in recent weeks. As a result, the ECB meeting was ignored, just like many other recent fundamental and macroeconomic events.

On the other hand, this is not an ordinary event or an ordinary decision. The ECB has become the first G7 central bank to implement a tightening. Although inflation in the eurozone is lower than, for example, in the US, the US has its own issues. The Fed is in no rush and, according to statements from monetary committee representatives, is in a favorable position to wait and observe the situation. We find it hard to understand what is advantageous about maintaining a position while inflation has nearly doubled in three months, but that is the Fed's stance.

The market remains fully focused on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, but as only secondary news or unverified information has been coming in lately, it has not reacted to it at all. Traders are waiting for a clear, public resolution to the conflict. Either Tehran and Washington start a new war, or they sign a peace agreement. Currently, both sides are stuck somewhere between these two options. As there is no specificity on this topic at this time, the market is hesitant to open long or short positions.

So what is left for traders in this situation? In our view, they can only wait for truly significant and resonant events, such as a political crisis in the UK, the resumption of war in the Middle East, a ceasefire between Iran and the US, or a Fed rate hike. All other data are secondary at the moment, and it is unlikely the market will react to them.

On the daily timeframe, it is clear that the EUR/USD pair has been in a sideways channel between 1.1440 and 1.1850 for 10 months, having only briefly exited it once. Thus, while the flat may not be the most classic traders have ever seen, it is nonetheless a flat. The price is currently very close to the lower boundary of the sideways channel, but without geopolitical support, the euro will struggle to start a new upward phase. However, its long-term prospects remain unchanged, with the currency strengthening against the US dollar.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 12 is 63 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1460 and 1.1586 on Friday. The upper channel of the linear regression has shifted upward, indicating a potential upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area and formed two bearish divergences, warning of the onset of a downward correction that has not yet completed. On Friday, it entered the oversold area, signaling a possible end to the correction.

Closest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1475
• S2 – 1.1414
• S3 – 1.1353

Closest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1536
• R2 – 1.1597
• R3 – 1.1658

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, which is presumably a correction within the global upward trend. The global fundamental background for the dollar remains extremely negative, and only geopolitical factors regularly support it. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1460. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1719 and 1.1780. The market continues to move away from geopolitical factors, but in recent weeks, the dollar has been in demand as hopes for peace in the Middle East have weakened.

Notes on Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate a probable price channel within which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator: its entry into oversold (below -250) or overbought (above +250) areas indicates an approaching trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The GBP/USD pair also experienced slight declines on Thursday, with the pivotal area remaining at 1.3301-1.3309. As long as it is not breached, talking about a continued decline is futile. We have already mentioned that despite ongoing violations of the truce in the Middle East and open attacks by adversaries in recent days, full-scale war has not resumed. The market, in any case, is not going to start a second wave of risk aversion. Therefore, we do not believe in a strong rise of the US dollar, but at the same time, the market seems to have no choice but to hold off on selling the American currency. Yesterday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US was released, which confirmed the worst fears. Inflation in the US is rising across the board. The Consumer Price Index accelerated in May to 4.2%, core inflation to 2.9%, and the PPI to 6.5%. Thus, we would expect further growth in the core indicator in the coming months.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend continues, with the price located below the Ichimoku indicator lines. As we predicted, the pair's growth on Friday was an exception to the rule, as the market has not been paying attention to macroeconomic data for some time. Geopolitics also does not support the dollar as strongly as before, but it continues to compel traders, at the very least, to refrain from selling the dollar.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, two trading signals were formed. During the night, the pair broke through the 1.3369-1.3377 area from below to above, and during the European trading session, it moved from above to below this area. The first signal was not worth trading, as a critical line lay 20 pips above. The second signal could have been executed as a short position, yielding a 25-pip profit by the end of the day.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound indicate that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross each other and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders still predominantly holding... sell positions. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for riskier currencies is low.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors are currently taking precedence, which have recently provided strong support for the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East is not yet resolved, the US dollar may still see further growth. According to the latest COT report (dated June 2), the "Non-commercial" group closed 4,300 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 9,200 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its upward trend due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and in US-Iran relations. The macroeconomic and fundamental background continues to have little impact on the pair's movements (with rare exceptions). We do not believe that, without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar can show a strong trend, but the market is currently finding it psychologically difficult to sell the American currency.

For June 12, we identify the following important levels for trading: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B (1.3396) and Kijun-sen (1.3396) lines may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Friday, the UK is scheduled to release monthly GDP and industrial production data for April. These are secondary data in the current circumstances, as is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the US.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3179-1.3187 if the price consolidates below the 1.3301-1.3309 area. Long positions will become relevant if there is a bounce from the 1.3301-1.3309 area, targeting 1.3369-1.3377.

Notes on Illustrations:

• Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator shifted to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extremum levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its weak decline on Thursday, with low volatility and uncertain prospects. The market ignored yet another important fundamental event, simply brushing aside the European Central Bank meeting, the rate hike, and Christine Lagarde's speech. As we warned, the market reaction was merely "for show." During the two-hour timeframe surrounding the ECB meeting, the euro was tossed back and forth by 10-15 pips, and that was it. Regarding the prospects for the US dollar, it is also rising very weakly, despite the full resumption of the conflict in the Middle East. Of course, negotiations between Tehran and Washington may resume tomorrow, but for now, we only hear Trump's statements about an impending new attack on Iran. Therefore, the dollar remains in a more advantageous position, but we still do not expect strong growth. The market appears reluctant to buy the dollar but has no other choice.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend has resumed, but whether it will continue is a big question. If Tehran and Washington miraculously sign a deal, demand for the US currency will decline. However, at present, the parties are much closer to resuming war, so the dollar remains strong across the market.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, movement was weak, but the pair still formed two trading signals. Early in the night, the price breached the 1.1536-1.1542 area but failed to advance significantly. During the European trading session, the price consolidated below the specified area and then bounced off it several times to confirm the move. Thus, traders had the opportunity to open short positions, which can be carried over to Friday.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 2. The illustration for the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish" but has declined significantly due to geopolitical events. Traders have been offloading the European currency in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Trump's policy has not changed, but for some time, the dollar has been regarded as a "reserve currency." However, this process may already be complete.

We still do not see any fundamental factors for strengthening the euro, while there are sufficient factors for the decline of the American dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will return to normal. That date may have already expired. In the long term, the euro could fall to $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. The pair has not come particularly close to this line in recent months.

The positioning of the indicator's red and blue lines indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 12,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 7,000. Consequently, the net position increased by 21,400 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, but there has been no resumption of full-scale war, nor have there been any peace deals. Thus, there are currently no sufficient reasons for the dollar to rise, nor are there substantial reasons for the euro to grow. However, considering ongoing geopolitical changes, such reasons may emerge.

For June 12, we identify the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1637) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1573). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Remember to set a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will safeguard against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Friday, the Eurozone will publish the second estimate of the inflation report for Germany, while the US will release the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. We consider both reports secondary, especially now that the market is ignoring 90% of economic data.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may remain in short positions with a target of 1.1444, as the price has consolidated below the area of 1.1536-1.1542. Long positions can be opened if there is consolidation above 1.1585, targeting 1.1637.

Notes on Illustrations:

• Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator shifted to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extremum levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.