The GBP/USD pair has a strong opportunity to continue its decline after reacting to bearish imbalance 19. Yesterday, I assumed that another bearish imbalance 20 could be invalidated, but instead of rising, the pair moved lower on Wednesday. Today, amid pressure from geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the market continues to buy the US dollar. Once again, this week is developing in favor of the US currency.

The geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States has gone beyond preventive strikes. US forces have been carrying out attacks on Iran for the third consecutive day, while Iran has responded by targeting US military bases in the Persian Gulf. In addition, although traders largely ignored Wednesday's inflation report, it still showed that inflation accelerated to 4.2%. Today's Producer Price Index report also pointed to faster price growth. As a result, developments in the Middle East appear to be moving toward a renewed military conflict, while inflationary pressures worldwide are likely to continue rising unless central banks take action. The ECB has already begun tightening policy today, inflation in the UK is paradoxically declining, and attention now turns to the Federal Reserve.

The situation in the Middle East is heating up again, which could support the US dollar in the coming weeks. I do not expect a rally in the dollar comparable to the one seen between January and March, but it is difficult to deny that the US currency performs better during periods of geopolitical uncertainty than either the euro or the pound. Therefore, even if the dollar does not post substantial gains, significant appreciation of the euro and pound also appears unlikely.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's sharp declines this year. At present, the ceasefire in the Middle East exists only formally. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any signs of progress in negotiations are based largely on statements from Donald Trump. Iran presents a very different assessment of the situation. Conditions continue to shift between improvement and deterioration. At the moment, the market is leaning toward the possibility of renewed conflict.

The current chart structure is as follows. Bullish imbalance 18 generated a price reaction, but bearish imbalance 19 ultimately produced a sell signal. Following that signal, another bearish setup emerged within imbalance 20. Geopolitical developments support further downside in the pair, and technical analysis points in the same direction. Until at least one bearish pattern is invalidated or a bullish pattern emerges, I would not expect meaningful gains in the pound.

The economic calendar on Thursday was largely uneventful. At least, the market paid little attention to the US Producer Price Index report, while even EUR/USD traders largely ignored the ECB's interest rate hike.

The broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect US dollar weakness over the long term. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States changes little in that regard. Geopolitical tensions have temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the overall environment for the US currency remains less than favorable. If the US economy gains momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its monetary tightening cycle, and the conflict between the United States and Iran becomes a prolonged confrontation, then the dollar could indeed target the 1.3100–1.3000 level. However, in my opinion, the long-term outlook for the US dollar could not have changed because of a single positive Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Federal Reserve has not yet signaled readiness to tighten policy further.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 12 contains only one event, which I do not consider particularly significant. Therefore, the impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Friday is likely to be minimal.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish, but the most recent signals are bearish. Therefore, in the near term, provided geopolitical developments do not interfere, bears may continue pushing toward the March 31 low at 1.3158. Liquidity may be taken from recent swing points, after which bulls could regain control if geopolitical conditions become more favorable. At present, it is difficult to imagine a quick resolution to the conflict between Iran and the United States, which leaves the pound with limited upward potential.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading around 50,232, pulling back after reaching its high near the strong resistance level of 51,836. The DJ has been under downward pressure for several consecutive sessions, so it may be entering a consolidation phase.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the Dow Jones has reached the 0/8 Murray line and the 200 EMA level, which has become strong support for this index.

As long as the price remains above the psychological level of 50,000 points, this could be seen as a buying opportunity, with targets at 50,637 and at the upper band of the downtrend channel around 50,700 points.

A sharp drop below the psychological level of 50,000 and a consolidation below the 200 EMA could continue the downward pressure and technical correction of the Dow Jones, potentially reaching the 7/8 Murray level around 48,437 in the coming days.

Given this, the Eagle indicator suggests we could buy the Dow Jones above 50,000, with targets at 50,650 and 700. A decisive break above the 21 SMA and above the downtrend channel could see it return to its highs around 51,836.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1535, below the 21-period SMA and within a descending trend channel formed since the beginning of May.

Technically, the euro is under bearish pressure, and we could expect it to reach the 6/8 Murray level around 1.1474 in the coming days. If the bearish pressure persists, it could even reach the lower band of the descending trend channel around 1.1460.

Technically, we could be seeing a symmetrical triangle pattern forming on the H4 chart, which could signal a recovery for the EUR/USD pair if the price consolidates above 1.1550.

A bullish scenario for the euro would involve buying as long as the price remains above the 21-period SMA, with targets at the upper band of the descending trend channel around the 7/8 Murray level, located at 1.1596.

One possible scenario is that the EUR breaks below the symmetrical triangle pattern and the price consolidates below 1.1530; in that case, the outlook could turn negative, and we might expect the euro to fall to the 1.1474 level. This level could provide strong support for the euro, and we might expect it to consolidate in this area before taking long positions.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, although it is in an oversold zone; however, we should wait for confirmation of the euro's movement before deciding whether to buy or sell.

Bitcoin is trading around $62,856, rebounding after reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from its low of $59,000 to its high of $64,400.

Bitcoin consolidated for a few hours above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which gave it the opportunity to resume its upward cycle. The cryptocurrency is now consolidating above the 0/8 Murray level and above the 21-period SMA, which suggests it could continue rising in the coming days to reach the upper band of the ascending trend channel formed since early June around the 1/8 Murray level, located at $65,600.

Given that Bitcoin is showing positive signs, and as long as the price remains above the 0/8 Murray level around $62,500, it will be seen as a positive buy signal. It is expected that in the short term, BTC will reach the 200 EMA around the psychological level of $70,000.

In the event of a technical correction, while the upward trend channel remains intact, we could expect Bitcoin to find strong support around $61,600. This level could coincide with the lower band of the upward trend channel and, in turn, give Bitcoin a new impetus to continue rising in the coming days.

Only a drop below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $61,000 could change the scenario for Bitcoin, and we could expect it to return to a low of $59,375. BTC could even continue falling and reach $54,500 around the -2/8 Murray level.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy Bitcoin from the $62,500 level, with targets at $63,000, $64,500, and $65,600.

Gold is trading around $4,081, rebounding after reaching the lower band of the descending trend channel formed on May 1st.

Gold hit a low of $4,011 around the psychological level of $4,000 and is now consolidating above the 5/8 Murray level.

If gold consolidates above $4,062 in the coming hours, it could be considered a buying opportunity with targets at the 21-period SMA around $4,215.

Given that gold has found strong support around $4,062 or $4,011, both levels could be considered opportunities to take long positions with short-term targets around the 6/8 Murray level at $4,375.

Should gold consolidate below the 5/8 Murray level, we could expect a continuation of the downward movement. However, before that, we should wait for the price to consolidate below the psychological level of $4,000. This could accelerate the downward movement and reach the 4/8 Murray level around $3,750.

The Eagle indicator has reached extremely oversold levels and is giving a positive signal. Therefore, we expect a technical bounce around the 5/8 Murray level, and a move above this zone could be seen as an opportunity to take long positions.

Tehran has demanded an emergency revision of the negotiating track with Washington after another series of overnight clashes. In response, US President Donald Trump publicly said the US intends to return to full-scale operations and announced an imminent offensive with massive strikes on key civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants.

Separately, Trump said he was satisfied with the economy despite CPI rising to 4.2% and attributed a fall in oil prices to the alleged interception of 22 Iranian tankers — a claim Energy Secretary Chris Wright immediately denied, saying his department has no information supporting any forced seizure of Middle Eastern oil. Follow the link for more details.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh confronts surprising economic strength and rising inflation

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a paradox. Known as a hawk, Warsh was expected by some in the White House to help lower borrowing costs. Instead, macro data points the other way: GDP is growing about 3% (Atlanta Fed estimates), equity markets are hitting records amid fiscal stimulus, and unemployment remains at a comfortable 4.3%.

Warsh's earlier argument that digitalization and AI adoption would naturally restrain inflation is losing traction as massive investment flows add to price pressures. Analysts see little prospect for quick policy easing. Balance sheet reduction is judged unlikely to have a rapid effect. Follow the link for more details.

Goldman Sachs materially revises Fed rate forecasts

Goldman Sachs has removed interest rate cuts from this year's outlook and pushed the first rounds of easing to June and December 2027. The change follows a shockingly strong May labor report — 172k payrolls added versus a consensus 88k — which also kept the unemployment rate steady. Goldman cut its year-end unemployment forecast to 4.4% from 4.6%.

Strong macro releases sparked heavy selling of government bonds and a drop of more than 5% in the Nasdaq 100. Markets are now pricing in roughly 25bp of rate hikes by year-end. Investors expect the June 16–17 FOMC meeting under Warsh to feature a decidedly hawkish tone consistent with May CPI. Follow the link for more details.

USD: winning trade amid entrenched inflation?

BMO Capital Markets argues that buying the US dollar is the most attractive tactical call in an environment of entrenched inflation and tight financial conditions. Strong May employment data gave the greenback a sudden lift, and it is premature to assume the US–Iran standoff will end soon enough to push oil down and inflation off the table.

Fundamentals favor a persistently tight policy stance and dollar dominance. BMO is therefore holding aggressive long USD positions vs. the euro, pound, yen, AUD, and CAD. Bloomberg commentary supports this view. Follow the link for more details.

Bank of America warns of correction risk in tech

Analysts at Bank of America flagged worrying technical signals in the tech sector: the Nasdaq 100, though attempting to bounce from Friday's lows, remains in a precarious zone. The prolonged rally above the psychological 30,000 level looks overstretched. RSI has rolled down from overbought territory, and a weekly bearish engulfing pattern formed.

The run-up was driven largely by aggressive buying of semiconductor stocks. Quant models and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF profile point to critical overheating in the cohort, raising the risk of a sharp volatility spike. BofA advises large investors to protect portfolios as the current risk/reward disfavors buyers. Follow the link for more details.

Brent (North Sea) price dynamics

What actually happened is what should have happened: the period of fear passed. At the start of the Middle East conflict, there was a lot of talk about Brent hitting $200/bbl, since a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have seemed catastrophic — roughly 20 million b/d transited it in peacetime. Even if Saudi Arabia managed to reroute 5 million b/d, the gap is still striking.

In practice, it wasn't as bad. After 100 days of confrontation in the Middle East, Brent is trading below $100/bbl. Flows are one thing, balance is another. Before the conflict, the oil market was in a record surplus of 3–4 million b/d, and that helped restrain the North Sea rally.

China's oil imports

China played an important role in preventing a recession tied to the biggest oil shock. Before the conflict, the country was supporting prices by importing about 11 million b/d. Now it is preventing prices from rising, cutting purchases to a ten-year low of 7.8 million b/d in May.

The crude market is cyclical: price increases lead to lower global demand and a fall in Brent. Similar dynamics are visible outside China. Bloomberg estimates refinery crude runs have fallen by 5 million b/d.

Don't forget alternatives: Gulf countries have been finding alternate routes, throughput in the Strait of Hormuz has recovered from March lows, US exports have risen to a record 5.6 million b/d from about 4 million b/d, and inventories are being actively drawn down. US stocks have declined for nine consecutive weeks.

It becomes clear the oil market has adapted, and news of renewed US–Iran talks serves as a catalyst for selling Brent. At least three Reuters sources in Tehran said the sticking point in the dialogue is the scale of Western unfreezing of Iranian assets.

Technically, on the daily chart, Brent has bounced off fair value at $95/bbl. That increases the risk of a continued corrective move into the uptrend, which could develop into a new trend. A break of pivot supports at $91.35 and $89.55/bbl would allow the formation of short positions in the North Sea grade.

US equity indices dynamics

According to Absolute Strategy Research, it took the S&P 500 15 years (2000–2015) to break even in real terms after the dot-com crash. Other long recovery periods include 1929–1956 and 1965–1991.

It would take many years to justify today's stretched earnings multiples if fundamentals revert to long-run averages. Taken together, these factors support concerns about a bubble and legitimate worry about a stagflationary outcome.

Price-to-earnings ratio dynamics

Fuel was added to the decline by expectations for a $75bn SpaceX IPO. Investors are raising cash, creating short-term liquidity pressure and triggering sell-offs in big tech.

The third bearish driver is geopolitics. The downing of a US helicopter triggered heavy US strikes on Iran. Trump publicly criticised Tehran for stalling negotiations. The escalation dented global risk appetite and contributed to the S&P 500 pullback. Market psychology flipped from FOMO — fear of missing out — to FOL (fear of losing), so a correction is sensible in this context.

However, the bear catalysts are not necessarily long-lasting. The SpaceX IPO is imminent. The US has halted strikes, and if Iran does not retaliate, negotiations could resume. Finally, the latest US inflation report was not as bad as headlines implied.

Annual figures broadly matched Bloomberg consensus, and month-on-month data showed a slowdown in May versus April. Those readings could mark a peak in consumer inflation, which is already easing in oil and gasoline prices. The likely result would be the Fed stepping back from further tightening in 2026 — a positive for US equity indices. Is it time to buy the dip?

Technically, the S&P 500 has formed an inside bar on the daily chart, signaling uncertainty. A return to the inside bar's upper boundary near 7,400 would be a reason to resume purchases. Aggressive traders can add long positions on a confirmed hold above the pivot at 7,300.

Due to low market volatility, prices did not reach the levels I had outlined.

Given the tense situation surrounding possible intervention by the Bank of Japan in the yen exchange rate, traders are tending to adopt a more cautious, wait-and-see stance. Going forward, special attention will be given to US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and the labor market.

A higher-than-expected PPI reading may increase concerns about accelerating inflation in the United States and, as a result, further support gains in the USD/JPY pair. Alongside the headline Producer Price Index, data for the PPI excluding food and energy will also be released. This sub-index is considered a more reliable measure of underlying inflation trends, as it removes volatile components. The dynamics of this indicator will also significantly influence expectations regarding future policy decisions by regulators. In addition, the market will receive weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. This indicator reflects the current state of the labor market and is an important gauge of its conditions. Weak data could lead to a minor correction in the pair.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 160.61 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 160.95 (thicker green line on the chart). At 160.95, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level). Further upward potential in the pair today is possible in the case of strong US inflation data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 160.47, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels at 160.61 and 160.95 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 160.47 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 160.14, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair may return in the case of Bank of Japan intervention. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 160.61, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels at 160.47 and 160.14 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area for profit-taking, as further gains above this level are unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area for profit-taking, as further declines below this level are unlikely
• MACD indicator – overbought and oversold zones should guide entry decisions

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if proper money management is not applied and large volumes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, by definition, a losing intraday strategy.

A price test of 1.3371 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a short pound trade. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

Today's economic calendar is expected to be busy with significant US events. In particular, special attention will be given to the Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This indicator is one of the key leading signals of inflationary pressure in the economy, reflecting price dynamics for goods and services at the wholesale level. Given the Federal Reserve's active fight against inflation, a higher-than-expected PPI reading may increase concerns about accelerating inflation and, as a result, push the Federal Reserve toward a more restrictive monetary policy, strengthening the US dollar against the pound. In addition, the market will receive weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Together, these releases will provide a comprehensive picture of the current state of the US economy and are likely to trigger increased volatility in the currency market.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3374 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3434 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3434, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level). Further pound strength today can only be expected after weak US data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3350, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels at 1.3374 and 1.3434 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3350 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3307, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pound may return in the case of a sharp rise in US inflation. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3374, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels at 1.3350 and 1.3307 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area to lock in profits, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area to lock in profits, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – overbought and oversold zones should guide trade entries

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if proper money management is not used and large volumes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, by default, a losing intraday strategy.

A price test of 1.1540 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a short euro trade. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

In addition to the ECB decision, one of the most important events will be the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI). An increase in PPI may indicate rising costs for businesses, which in turn may lead to higher prices for end consumers and support the US dollar. In addition, weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will provide up-to-date information on the US labor market. An increase in jobless claims may signal a slowdown in hiring or even rising layoffs, while consistently low figures would indicate continued strength in the labor market.

It is also worth keeping in mind the Middle East situation, where new US strikes on Iran may put strong pressure on the euro and support buying in the US dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered if the price reaches the 1.1554 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1620. At 1.1620, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth will only be possible after weak US data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1522, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels at 1.1554 and 1.1620 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1522 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1455, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Downward pressure may return today in the case of a sharp rise in inflation. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1554, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the upward potential of the pair and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels at 1.1522 and 1.1455 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – overbought and oversold conditions should be used as key signals when entering trades

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if proper money management is not used and large volumes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, by default, a losing intraday strategy.

Attention from traders and analysts will now shift to the release of key macroeconomic indicators, which may significantly influence market sentiment and the further direction of the currency market.

One of the most anticipated events is the publication of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May this year. This indicator reflects the price dynamics of goods and services produced domestically and serves as an important leading signal of inflation trends in the consumer sector. An increase in PPI may indicate rising business costs, which in turn can be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Particular attention is also given to the Producer Price Index excluding food and energy prices. This measure provides a more stable view of underlying inflation in the production sector. Analysis of Core PPI will help assess the persistence of inflationary pressure and its potential impact on Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Finally, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will provide fresh insight into the labor market. This indicator is sensitive to short-term fluctuations and can quickly reflect changes in the economic environment. An increase in jobless claims may signal a slowdown in hiring or even rising layoffs, while persistently low readings would indicate continued strength in the labor market, supporting the US dollar.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows no reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.1550 may lead to gains toward 1.1580 and 1.1600
• Sell breakout below 1.1530 may lead to declines toward 1.1505 and 1.1480

GBP/USD

• Buy breakout above 1.3375 may lead to gains toward 1.3399 and 1.3420
• Sell breakout below 1.3350 may lead to declines toward 1.3330 and 1.3300

USD/JPY

• Buy breakout above 160.60 may lead to gains toward 160.90 and 161.17
• Sell breakout below 160.30 may lead to declines toward 160.02 and 159.80

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day

EUR/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1561, followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1515, followed by a return above this level

GBP/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3390, followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3333, followed by a return above this level

AUD/USD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7015, followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6988, followed by a return above this level

USD/CAD

• I will look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.4002, followed by a return below this level
• I will look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3955, followed by a return above this level

EUR/USD 1H Chart

The EUR/USD pair showed no interesting movements in the first half of Thursday. During the night, the price rebounded from the 1.1527–1.1531 level and rose slightly, but traders were unable—or unwilling—to extend the upward movement. It should be noted that the official results of the ECB meeting will be released. Although the market has no doubts about monetary tightening, it is not rushing to buy the euro. However, we still believe that the euro may rise slightly after the announcement. The key question is that this growth is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on the technical outlook or market sentiment. The market continues to ignore fundamentals and macroeconomic data, focusing instead on major geopolitical events. Even further exchanges of attacks between Iran and the United States are no longer considered "important events." Therefore, strong trending moves are unlikely today. In the United States, the PPI report will be released, but after yesterday's inflation data it is of almost no significance.

EUR/USD 5M Chart

On the 5-minute timeframe, a buy signal was formed in the first half of Thursday around the 1.1527–1.1531 level. However, it appeared during the night, so beginner traders were unlikely to trade it. Before the opening of the US session, the price returned to the 1.1527–1.1531 level, so another signal may soon form.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the flat phase has ended and a downward trend has resumed after three weeks of consolidation. However, further gains in the US dollar will depend entirely on geopolitical developments. If full-scale conflict in the Middle East resumes, the dollar will continue to strengthen. If Tehran and Washington return to negotiations, risk currencies will be supported.

On Thursday, beginner traders may open short positions targeting 1.1455–1.1474 if the price breaks below the 1.1527–1.1531 level. Buy trades may be considered on a rebound from the 1.1527–1.1531 level, targeting 1.1584–1.1594.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be monitored: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1830–1.1837, 1.1899–1.1908. Within minutes, the ECB meeting results and interest rate decision will be published. A press conference with Christine Lagarde will follow in half an hour. There is no certainty that the market will react strongly to this event, as the ECB's intention to raise rates has been known for over a week.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by the time required for its formation (bounce or breakout). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more losing trades have been opened from the same level due to false signals, all further signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should be traded only when there is sufficient volatility and a confirmed trend (trendline or channel).
5. If two levels are very close to each other (5–20 points), they should be treated as a single support or resistance level.
6. After price moves 15 points in the expected direction, Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What Is on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels (zones) are used as targets for buy/sell trades or as signal sources.
• Red lines represent channels or trendlines showing the current trend and preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a signal source.

Important speeches and economic reports (in the news calendar) can strongly influence currency movements. Therefore, trading during such events should be done with extreme caution, or positions should be closed to avoid sharp reversals.

Beginner Forex traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and proper money management are key to long-term trading success.

Support for a rate hike is already gaining momentum among members of the Monetary Policy Board, and it now appears likely that the executive branch will also support an increase. Regarding the position of the Takaichi administration, which is likely the main obstacle to a final decision on a rate hike, Jiji Press reported that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advised Prime Minister Takaichi during a meeting not to block a Bank of Japan rate increase. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that it is now more likely that the administration will accept—or has already accepted—a rate hike.

Key risks ahead of the meeting include events that could complicate a rate hike decision. These include severe supply chain disruptions caused by further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. However, such a deterioration in conditions appears unlikely in the coming days.

Analysts at Mizuho Bank forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise rates approximately once every six months. The policy rate is expected to reach 1.25% by December 2026 and 1.50% by June 2027 (terminal rate). In parallel with rate hikes, the Bank of Japan is also likely to slow the pace of quantitative tightening.

The net short position in the yen increased by 1.13 billion over the reporting week, reaching -10.13 billion. Short positions have exceeded the previous 2007 peak and reached a new record high. The fair value estimate is attempting to move below the long-term average.

USD/JPY has moved close to the April 30 high, after which a large-scale currency intervention followed. The current situation is similar; however, if the Bank of Japan proceeds with a rate hike, another intervention may not be necessary. Japanese authorities may also be considering a similar scenario and may retain the option of intervening later if the yen does not stabilize. Fundamentally, the yen remains weak, and a move toward 162 is still in play. However, confidence in a rate hike could support bearish USD/JPY positioning and allow the yen to retrace a few figures lower.

The Bank of Canada's decision came against the backdrop of first-quarter GDP data showing the onset of a technical recession. Clearly, this factor could not be ignored. In such conditions, a rate hike would be illogical; however, a rate cut is also not possible due to the persistent high risk of rising inflation.

Other Canadian economic indicators also did not require immediate policy action. The May labor market report was notably strong, with 88,000 new jobs created, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 10,000. The unemployment rate fell from 6.9% to 6.6%, as employment growth outpaced labor supply. Average hourly wages increased by 3.0% year-over-year in May, down from 4.5% in April, which can also be viewed positively from an inflation containment perspective.

This strong report allowed the Bank of Canada to reaffirm the validity of its current strategy of inaction. Preliminary GDP data for April showed growth of 0.4%, and the strong labor market figures suggest that economic activity may recover in the second quarter.

Canada's trade balance in April also showed positive dynamics, posting a surplus of CAD 2.7 billion compared to CAD 1.8 billion in the previous month. Rising oil prices contributed, but strong performance in other export categories should also be noted. The trade surplus with the United States also increased, indicating that concerns over trade conditions initiated last year by Trump-era tariff increases have not had a significant impact on the Canadian economy.

At present, it can be assumed that sustained economic recovery is necessary for meaningful strengthening of the Canadian dollar. However, there are still limited grounds for such momentum.

The net short position in CAD increased over the reporting week by 1.81 billion to -6.8 billion. The bearish bias is strengthening, with the fair value price above the long-term average and continuing to rise.

USD/CAD reached the resistance level of 1.3930–1.3965, which was identified in the previous review as the primary target. The trend remains bullish. From a technical perspective, after an attempt to break above 1.3965, a minor pullback is possible, which could be used for new long positions. However, a more likely scenario is a firm break above 1.3965 and a continuation toward the next target at 1.4139.

Gold plunged sharply amid a worsening US-Iran confrontation. The metal, traditionally seen as a "safe haven," is losing value, while oil is rising on fears of supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Spot gold fell 3.5%, dropping to $4,111.95 an ounce — a low not seen since March 23.

The selling continued after new US strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday. The strikes were a response to the downing of a US Army Apache helicopter.

President Donald Trump warned that Iran has "dragged out talks for too long" and will pay the price. In response, Tehran carried out rocket and drone attacks on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, heightening geopolitical tensions and supporting the rise in oil prices.

Nonetheless, the fall in gold reflects a reordering of market priorities — investors are increasingly focused on the risk of inflation, not only on geopolitical shocks.

Since the conflict began in late February, rising oil prices have revived expectations of possible monetary tightening. CME Group's FedWatch tool puts the probability of a US rate hike in December at 67% — a notable reversal from early-year expectations that had priced in easing.

"Markets desperately need positive news after the strong jobs report on Friday and this morning's threats from the president toward Tehran," independent metals trader Tai Wong told CNBC, commenting on the pressure on gold.

On Wednesday, the consumer price index offered the market some relief: core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in May, slowing from a 0.4% rise in April.

However, amid mounting energy-driven pressure, investors are turning their attention to the producer price index due Thursday. Some believe it could significantly influence expectations about the Fed's next steps and, accordingly, the outlook for both gold and oil.

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to build on its moderate recovery from the lows recorded earlier on Thursday, which marked the lowest levels since November 2025. The precious metal is currently holding near the $4,100 level.

From a technical perspective, the recent break below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), along with the decline to a new February low, strengthens the bearish outlook for XAU/USD.

The MACD indicator remains deeply in negative territory, confirming the dominance of bearish sentiment. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals oversold conditions, which may indicate a potential slowdown in downward momentum despite the persistent selling pressure.

The nearest resistance is located near the broken lower boundary of the downward channel, around $4,250. Further resistance levels include the 200-day EMA and SMA at $4,444, followed by the psychological level of $4,500 and then the 50-day SMA near $4,630.

As long as the price remains below these levels, sellers are likely to retain control of the market, and any upward moves will most likely be viewed as corrective rebounds rather than the beginning of a trend reversal.

Immediate support is located at $4,015. A break below this level could accelerate the decline toward the $3,900 level.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure. Following the completion of this structure, the instrument may transition to an upward wave sequence, and at present, the structure appears complete. Therefore, a rise in the euro may be expected from the 1.1513 level, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. However, without support from geopolitical developments, the euro is unlikely to receive strong market backing.

The EUR/USD pair was virtually unchanged on Wednesday, while traders continued to assess yesterday's inflation report. Opinions vary widely. Some economists believe that inflation data coming in line with forecasts allows the Federal Reserve to maintain its wait-and-see approach, as inflation did not show a significant acceleration in May. There is also a view that current inflation levels are acceptable to US President Donald Trump and that the pace of inflation growth has begun to slow. In my opinion, these interpretations are incorrect.

Inflation has been rising for three consecutive months and has nearly doubled over that period. If that is not a cause for concern, what is? Should policymakers wait until inflation approaches 6% before taking action? In my view, it is important to focus on the root of the problem. Inflation is rising, and there is no need to look for excuses, believe in a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, or rely on unrealistic expectations. The current reality is harsh and uncompromising. Inflation continues to increase, and the slower pace of growth in May does not justify the conclusion that the upward inflation trend is reversing. Even if the Consumer Price Index eventually stops accelerating—which will happen sooner or later—that does not mean the Federal Reserve can relax and expect inflation to return to its 2% target on its own. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will eventually have to tighten monetary policy. The only question is when that process will begin.

Since yesterday, expectations in the futures market have become more hawkish. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year now exceeds 70%. The increase in hawkish expectations has been modest, but the next Federal Reserve meeting will take place as early as next week. At that point, market participants should be able to make more accurate forecasts for the remainder of 2026. In my opinion, most FOMC members—including Jerome Powell—will not be able to ignore rising inflation indefinitely, regardless of the views expressed by Stephen Miran and Kevin Warsh.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the broader upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a downward trend segment that may already be complete. In my opinion, this may be a reasonable time to consider building long positions. The unsuccessful attempt to break below the 1.1513 level, corresponding to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, combined with the completed appearance of the bearish wave structure, suggests that the pair may transition into a new upward wave sequence with targets near the 1.1700 level and above.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near term, wave C is expected to form with targets near 1.1352, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C corrective structure is complete, a new long-term bullish trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out of it.
3. There can never be complete certainty regarding market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The most recent completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. Therefore, the trend has shifted back to bearish. Bulls may launch a new advance only if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement, stop violating the ceasefire terms, and the Strait of Hormuz remains open. Without these developments, further gains in the euro are likely to be extremely limited.

There were several important developments on Wednesday. First, Iran resumed attacks on US military bases in the Middle East in response to Washington's strike on its own military facilities. Donald Trump stated that his patience had run out but changed his position by the following morning after what he described as "a call from Iran." As a result, another escalation of the conflict appears to have been avoided for now. Second, US inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May, in line with market expectations. Since the latest exchange of strikes did not lead to a renewed war and the inflation data matched forecasts, traders found little reason to react to either development. In a few hours, the results of the European Central Bank meeting will be announced, and traders may once again find little to respond to. It became clear last week that the ECB was preparing to tighten monetary policy, so a rate hike decision today is unlikely to trigger strong buying pressure from bulls.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1667 and resumed its decline within a downward trend channel. A consolidation below the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1569 supports expectations of a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 0.0% at 1.1411. I will begin to expect a bullish trend only after prices close above the channel. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 12,387 long positions and closed 7,053 short positions. Over the seven weeks of February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war in Iran, while the past ten weeks have seen market positioning become more balanced amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 235,000, compared with 186,000 short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the bulls.

Overall, large institutional traders continue to maintain a constructive long-term view on the euro. Naturally, various global developments, which have been abundant in recent years, continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, the direction of the euro and the dollar will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

• Eurozone – ECB Interest Rate Decision (12:15 UTC).
• United States – Producer Price Index (PPI) (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).
• Eurozone – ECB Press Conference (12:45 UTC).

The June 11 economic calendar contains several scheduled events, with the ECB meeting clearly standing out as the key event. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment during the second half of Thursday's session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.1578 level, targeting 1.1514. New short positions may again be considered on another rebound from 1.1578 with the same target. Long positions may be opened on a rebound from 1.1514 with targets at 1.1578 and 1.1630. Alternatively, buying opportunities may emerge following a close above 1.1578.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls lack positive geopolitical developments to launch a meaningful advance. The most recent completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. Geopolitical developments remain highly uncertain at present, leaving neither bulls nor bears with a clear advantage. The bearish trend can be considered complete only if the June 5 high is broken.

The news backdrop on Wednesday gave bears an opportunity to continue their advance, although they have clearly lost momentum in recent weeks. The inflation report showed another acceleration in headline inflation to 4.2% year-over-year, while core inflation rose to 2.9% year-over-year. In both cases, the figures matched market expectations, which explains the lack of a significant market reaction. Nevertheless, rising inflation strengthens hawkish market expectations and may support both the US dollar and bearish sentiment toward GBP/USD in the medium term. However, this support is unlikely to be clearly visible, as geopolitical developments remain the primary market driver. Not every headline is capable of influencing market sentiment. The flow of news is simply too large, and most developments have no meaningful consequences for the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, traders have chosen to focus on the most important events, which have been relatively scarce lately. Tehran and Washington still cannot reach an agreement and continue to demonstrate their resolve, yet neither side appears willing to engage in a full-scale conflict. Therefore, after each escalation or violation of ceasefire conditions, conciliatory rhetoric and indirect proposals to return to negotiations tend to follow.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and turned in favor of the pound. Therefore, the pair may return to the 1.3482–1.3514 resistance level in the near term. A consolidation below 1.3327 would favor a continuation of the decline toward the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3159. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,291, while the number of short positions fell by 13,471. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 53,000 versus 110,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. However, in the near term, developments will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the expectation of a prolonged conflict, but the latest developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although it is unlikely to be quick or easy.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

• United States – Producer Price Index (PPI) (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 11 contains only two releases, neither of which can be considered particularly important. However, the economic backdrop may have a noticeable impact on market sentiment during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Short positions were possible after the rebound from the 1.3408 level on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3349–1.3355 level. That target has been reached. New short positions may be considered following another rebound from 1.3408 or after a close below the 1.3349–1.3355 support level. Long positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3349–1.3355 level with a target at 1.3408. Alternatively, a close above 1.3408 would open the way toward the 1.3454–1.3466 target level.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to build on its moderate recovery from the lows recorded earlier on Thursday, which marked the lowest levels since November 2025. The precious metal remains near the $4,100 level amid a mixed fundamental backdrop.

The US dollar continues to face pressure after softer core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data eased concerns about runaway inflation, providing some support for the precious metal.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric, coupled with escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, is supporting the dollar and limiting gold's upward potential.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday, the core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, slowed to 0.2% in May from 0.4% in the previous month. On an annual basis, the reading came in at 2.9%, matching market expectations. Meanwhile, headline consumer inflation accelerated from 3.8% in April to 4.2% year-over-year during the reporting period, reaching its highest level in three years amid a 23.5% increase in energy prices.

Additional pressure stems from geopolitical risks, including the possibility of further escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to support oil prices.

Iran announced the blockade of the strait following a new wave of US strikes ordered by President Donald Trump. The country's military leadership stated that it is prepared to deliver a strong and decisive response to any US actions in the region. These developments helped oil prices recover after reaching a two-month low on Tuesday, reinforcing inflation expectations and strengthening expectations of tighter monetary policy from major central banks.

Market participants are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Against this backdrop, conditions remain in place for higher US Treasury yields, which support the dollar and suggest that downward pressure on gold is likely to prevail. For better trading opportunities, investors should await the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which may provide greater clarity regarding the Fed's next monetary policy steps. At the same time, developments in the Middle East could increase market volatility, affecting the dollar's performance and creating additional trading opportunities in the gold market.

From a technical perspective, the recent break below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), along with the decline to a new February low, strengthens the bearish outlook for XAU/USD.

Oscillators remain in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in oversold territory, indicating that the downward momentum is slowing and that a corrective rebound may develop. Immediate resistance is located near the $4,250 level. The path of least resistance remains to the downside, and any corrective recovery may be viewed as an opportunity to establish short positions.

More than half of the rise in headline CPI was driven by energy — gasoline jumped 7% month-on-month. That is understandable: a closed Strait of Hormuz, the war with Iran and elevated oil prices. However, the only bright spot in the report was the core measure: excluding food and energy, prices rose just 0.2% month-on-month — below forecasts. Food prices increased only 0.1%; beef, tomatoes and cheese actually fell. Transportation services, health insurance and new car prices also declined. This gives the Fed a formal argument for a pause — but only a formal one.

The problem is that even if the war ends quickly, inflationary pressure will not vanish. Economists warn of a wave of second-round effects: fertilizer market disruptions will ultimately push up food prices, higher transport costs will pass through the entire consumer-goods chain, and rebuilding oil inventories will take months. In other words, reopening the Strait of Hormuz would not bring rapid relief to household budgets.

This is an extremely awkward scenario for the Fed. The June 16–17 meeting — the first under Kevin Warsh's leadership — is highly likely to end in a pause given the geopolitical uncertainty. Yet markets are already pricing in a rate hike by year-end, and the May report has only reinforced that view.

Core inflation running below expectations gives Warsh room for caution, but headline CPI at 4.2% combined with falling real wages is a politically and economically toxic mix.

All of this suggests that, despite a modest pick-up in demand for risk assets, the US dollar is still likely to be in demand among large traders and market participants.

Immediately after, Trump said he had personally spoken with senior Iranian officials — who asked for the bombing to stop. He promised the strikes would end soon, but added: if Iranian leaders do not sign an agreement tomorrow, the US will strike again.

This is already the second consecutive round of attacks — the first followed the downing of a US Apache helicopter on Tuesday. Tehran denies it has been in direct talks with the American president.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has sharply deteriorated. Iranian state TV announced a full closure of the strait to all types of vessels — commercial, oil and gas — citing the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters. The IRGC reported attacks on two ships attempting to transit. US Central Command denied the strait had been closed, saying commercial vessels continue to pass through. Both sides insist on their version of events — and the market does not know whom to believe.

An important nuance often lost behind the headlines: Trump said the US has already supported the transit of more than 200 merchant vessels and the movement of over 100 million barrels of oil through the strait — and declared that the strait is now controlled by the United States, not Iran. Satellite data and testimony from shipping executives do show a gradual revival of traffic, including so-called shadow transits with transponders switched off. Nevertheless, daily transits remain well below the pre-war average of 135 ships per day.

For markets, this is a classic war-of-narratives scenario. But so far traders are leaning toward the US dollar, since the latest US labor and inflation data point to the need for a firmer Federal Reserve stance.

Technical outlook

EUR/USD

Buyers need to reclaim 1.1555 to target a test of 1.1580. From there, a push to 1.1600 is possible, but doing so without support from major players will be difficult. The farther target is 1.1625. On the downside, I expect significant buying only around 1.1530; if no buyers appear, wait for a new low at 1.1505 or consider longs from 1.1480.

GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3390 to aim for 1.3415, above which a further move will be challenging. The farther target is around 1.3440. On the downside, bears will try to gain control below 1.3360; if they succeed, a breakout would hit bulls hard and push GBP/USD toward 1.3330 with a prospect of reaching 1.3299.

The reason is a qualitative change in the market environment: the development of spot ETFs, rising institutional demand and a much more mature market infrastructure create a new type of support that simply did not exist in prior bear cycles. Grayscale's conclusion is unequivocal: current levels may be attractive for long-term accumulation of Bitcoin.

The thesis aligns well with CryptoQuant data, which last week reported that the share of Bitcoin supply in losses reached 50% — historically, this has coincided with periods of market capitulation and cycle lows. Considering that Bitcoin has not fallen for a week despite seventeen consecutive days of ETF outflows, and is showing greater resilience than the S&P 500, which is uncommon for an asset usually considered correlated with tech stocks — the chances that the market is finding a bottom are reasonably good.

Strategy, after a symbolic sale of 32 coins, returned to buying and added 1,550 BTC. Tom Lee holds 5.4 million Ethereum and calls the moment "crypto-spring." The combination of these signals indicates that large, long-term capital is beginning to take current levels seriously.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $63,600, which opens a clear path to $65,800, and from there $67,700 is within easy reach — a breach of which would signal attempts to reestablish a bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $61,100. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $59,600. The most distant target would be the $58,200 area.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,686 opens a direct route to $1,763. The most distant target is the high around $1,838; clearing that would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,615. A return below that area could quickly drive ETH toward $1,557. The furthest target would be the $1,496 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

An important development came yesterday: Tehran announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels in response to US strikes. If implemented in full, the market would face a fundamentally new situation — not the partial blockade that has lasted four months, but a full cutoff of the waterway that in peacetime carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. That announcement triggered sharp moves across asset classes.

The paradox for gold remains. The metal is 22% below pre?war levels even though, by classic logic, it should serve as a safe haven. The reason is the same: the war has accelerated inflation, inflation pushes rates up, and higher rates weigh more heavily on a non-yielding metal than geopolitical fear supports it. The US CPI for May, released on Wednesday, reinforced this dynamic: a 4.2% year-on-year increase — the highest since early 2023 — outpacing wage growth.

A technical point important for traders: the recent drop below the 200-day moving average triggered additional algorithmic selling — a level large funds use when making positional decisions. In other words, the selling is driven not by a changed view on the metal but by the need for liquidity.

Silver is up 1% to $63.96. Platinum and palladium are also trading higher.

Technical outlook for gold

Buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,127. That would target $4,186, above which further breakthroughs would be rather difficult. The next, more distant target is the $4,249 area. On the downside, bears will try to take control below $4,062. If they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold toward a low of $4,008 with a prospect of reaching $3,954.