Meanwhile, experts continue to insist that Bitcoin is at the "bottom" or close to it. Analysts from various firms note that more than half of Bitcoin coins are currently at a loss, which in itself indicates the formation of a "bottom," as similar patterns were observed in 2011, 2018, and 2022. In those cases, Bitcoin reached its lowest value in the cycle within a month, demonstrating further declines of 15-25%, and then began to establish a "bullish" trend. Analysts also point out that Bitcoin has dropped to the 200-day moving average, which serves as a marker for "bearish" cycles, and that the fear-and-greed index has plummeted to its lowest level. All this "indicates the proximity of the end of the downward trend."

We do not find such conclusions and predictions convincing. What prevents institutions from continuing to channel capital into the AI sector? What stops Tehran and Washington from continuing the war for several more months or years? What prevents inflation in the US from continuing to rise, forcing the Fed to prepare for not just one tightening of monetary policy in 2026, but for several? It's important to remember that historical models eventually stop working. Typically, in the first year after a "halving," Bitcoin has shown significant growth, but in 2025, this pattern ceased to hold. Bitcoin cannot rise indefinitely. We are not opponents of a new upward trend, but we consider such foundations to be a common attempt to present wishes as realities. Many experts are investors in the first cryptocurrency themselves and thus are interested parties. For example, it is beneficial for Kathy Wood or, even more so, Michael Saylor if Bitcoin only appreciates. And for that to happen, they need to convince other market participants of the inevitability of growth, prompting them to buy rather than sell and triggering a new bullish impulse.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has resumed forming a downward trend. The structure of the trend is identified as downward, and the CHOCH line has been moved to $82,800, as a new LL (Lower Low) has been formed. Only above this level can we consider that the downward trend is over. Since there are still no signs of an upward trend reversal, we believe the decline will continue. A new bearish FVG has formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range. If desired, other FVG can be identified during Bitcoin's current decline, but this one is the most obvious. Thus, new sell signals may be formed within this pattern in the future.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe, the formation of a downward trend, which began in August of last year, continues. The key pattern for selling has been and remains a bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we previously warned, the movement triggered by this signal can be strong and prolonged. We do not believe it has ended, as there are no signs of a downward trend's completion for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near future, Ethereum may resume its decline with targets at $1,391 and $788. An upward correction can be expected when at least some bullish pattern or other signs of a price reversal to the upside are formed on at least the 4-hour timeframe. Among the new POI areas for short positions, we note the FVG in the $1,624-$1,720 range. If this pattern is ignored, traders will receive a signal for a correction.

Notes on Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Change in trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders used by market makers to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves rapidly through such areas, indicating a complete lack of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and respond to these areas in continuation of the main trend.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but breaks through impulsively before testing it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. A candle in which a market maker opened a position to acquire liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. The only noteworthy report is the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which is significant for the market but carries little weight after the inflation report published the day before. The PPI will indicate how quickly producers are raising prices due to the energy crisis, and, of course, this data will later be reflected in overall inflation. However, we already know that inflation in the US continues to accelerate, while the Federal Reserve remains silent. Therefore, this report is unlikely to elicit any market reaction today. In the UK, the European Union, and Germany, the event calendars are completely empty.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, the European Central Bank meeting and Christine Lagarde's speech are noteworthy. It is essentially already known that the ECB will raise all three key rates by 0.25%. This decision has been known for over a week. However, the market is ignoring this event, just as it is ignoring many other fundamental and macroeconomic events. Therefore, we believe that the ECB meeting and its "hawkish" decision will not impact the euro's exchange rate; any reaction may be merely formal.

The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired, as Iran and the US have once again edged closer to renewed conflict amid failed negotiations. Talks between Washington and Tehran are interrupted, both sides continue to regularly violate the terms of the truce, and Iran consistently refutes any peace rhetoric from Trump. The new week began with reciprocal shelling in the Middle East, Iran shooting down an American helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, US attacks on Iranian coastal infrastructure, and Iranian missile strikes on Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. Judge for yourself how close Tehran and Washington are to a peace agreement...

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite actively, given that it is the day of the ECB meeting. However, we doubt that the market will respond to this event as it should. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair also failed to show any interesting movement on Wednesday. Initially, the British pound rose moderately, then it decreased slightly, and on the hourly timeframe, it is evident that the pair has been trading in a sideways channel for almost a month. The new escalation of the conflict in the Middle East did not impress traders, as there have been at least ten violations of the truce in recent weeks. Each time, Tehran and Washington calmly continued negotiations, and Donald Trump kept promising a "tremendous deal" with Iran very soon. As a result, the market no longer believes in anything—neither in the resumption of war, nor in the signing of a peace agreement, nor in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, nor in Tehran's and Washington's willingness to reach an agreement. Trump is losing the war in Iran, as none of his objectives have been achieved. The longer the conflict lasts, the lower Trump's chances of maintaining sole power in the US become. Congressional elections are just around the corner...

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Throughout the entire European session, the pair attempted to bounce from the area of 1.3380-1.3386, and as night approached, it breached this area in the opposite direction. In both cases, we did not see any significant movement in the desired direction due to low volatility.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend, as the geopolitical situation remains consistently poor, and the ascending trend line has been breached. However, without a resumption of full-scale war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect growth as it did in February-March. Individual events may still prompt further strengthening (as on Friday), but we do not believe the market will trigger a new wave of risk-off flows into the dollar. Under Trump, the dollar itself is a risky asset.

On Thursday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.3319-1.3331 if there is a bounce from the 1.3380-1.3386 area. A price consolidation above the area of 1.3380-1.3386 will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.3456.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently take place at the following levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. On Thursday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, while the only report in the US will be the Producer Price Index, which is unlikely to interest anyone, given that the inflation report was published yesterday...

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade with low volatility and a complete reluctance to move in any direction on Wednesday. Recall that the US inflation report was published yesterday, which has a direct impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Due to inflation in the US accelerating three months ago, the market began to anticipate a tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. Thus, yet another rise in inflation in America could have prompted a new rally for the dollar. If it weren't for one "but." The market once again ignored this important macroeconomic report. It is worth noting that the actual figure matched the forecasts perfectly, so there was essentially nothing to react to. However, the acceleration in inflation to 4.2% significantly increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in 2026. Also, yesterday, the truce between Iran and the US was once again broken, and Donald Trump virtually acknowledged the breakdown of negotiations. But the market did not find it necessary to react to this news either.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

In the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Several times, the price approached the 1.1527-1.1531 area but failed to act. Earlier this morning, the pair reacted to and bounced off the specified area, allowing, or soon allowing, the opening of long positions.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the flat has concluded, and a downward trend has resumed after three weeks of stagnation, but any further US dollar growth will be entirely dependent on developments in geopolitical events. If full-scale war resumes in the Middle East, the dollar will continue to rise. If Tehran and Washington return to the negotiating table, this will support riskier currencies.

On Thursday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1455-1.1474 if the price breaks below the 1.1527-1.1531 area. Long positions can be considered on a bounce from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, with targets at 1.1584-1.1594.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Thursday, the European Central Bank meeting will take place in the European Union, the interest rate decision will be announced, and Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech. However, we have no confidence that the market will not ignore this event since the ECB's intention to raise interest rates has been known for over a week.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Wednesday, as if there were peace and tranquility in the Middle East. However, that is not the case. In the Middle East, Iran first attacked an American helicopter, then the US attacked Iranian coastal military facilities, and subsequently Tehran began launching missiles at Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. In this unfortunate situation, we can only wonder how much the market loves the "spaghetti" Donald Trump is serving. The American president has been insisting for weeks that an agreement with Iran is practically signed and that Tehran is willing to export all nuclear fuel and impose a moratorium on uranium enrichment in the future. To be precise, we have been hearing such statements from Trump for two months now, since the temporary truce was agreed upon on April 7. Only in the last couple of weeks has the market stopped believing Trump's words, but it still reacts to practically any events and news concerning the Middle East.

Yes, the market's reaction to geopolitics now is not the same as it was three months ago. The market is currently processing Trump's statements and promises, as well as actual events in the Middle East, with caution. This is precisely what we meant when we repeated for weeks that the geopolitical factor has less influence on the currency market, yet geopolitics still accounts for 90% of currency pair movements. In other words, the market no longer responds to every event, every piece of news, or every statement with 100-point moves, but it still reacts to geopolitical events (with rare exceptions).

What does all this mean for the British pound? Only that we should not expect any significant decline in the GBP/USD pair unless Trump genuinely intends to resume full-scale attacks on Iran. This is exactly what the American leader stated yesterday. He said that the time for signing a favorable peace agreement with Iran has expired and that its acts of aggression this week compel the US to switch to a forceful method of problem-solving. However, yesterday, Trump mentioned the possible resurgence of war, and today, he may announce that negotiations with Tehran have resumed, as "Iran really wants to get an agreement." The rhetoric of the American president can change ten times in a day, and each subsequent statement can contradict the previous one. We believe that traders should have long since gotten used to this and generally stop reacting to Trump's words. However, they are still unable to ignore them completely.

As such, we do not expect a strengthening of either the dollar or the British pound without the resumption of war or the signing of a peace agreement. The market will likely continue to ignore most macroeconomic statistics and fundamental events, except for perhaps the most significant ones.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 81 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Thursday, June 11, we therefore expect movements within the range limited by levels 1.3308 and 1.3470. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a potential recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the downward trend.

Closest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Closest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the US dollar. However, 2026 is currently looking very positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price below the moving average will allow trading on the downside with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3245. Market conditions often change, and the market primarily tracks geopolitical news, which is not uniform.

Notes on Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate a probable price channel, within which the pair will operate for the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

The CCI indicator: its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair maintained a downward bias on Wednesday, with geopolitical events not suggesting otherwise at this time. Recall that the week began optimistically with new promises from Donald Trump to sign an agreement with Iran very soon. However, the next day, something went awry in the American president's plans. It became known that Iran attacked and destroyed an American Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz. In response to this "outrageous act of aggression," the US struck Iranian radars and launch sites. Yesterday, Tehran began launching retaliatory strikes against Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.

As we can see, Donald Trump appears to be living in some parallel universe where a deal with Iran has already been agreed upon, and victory over a principal adversary was achieved months ago. In reality, there is no deal with Iran in sight, and the market is once again starting to wake up from the "noodles" that the White House leader has been dangling before it. Therefore, it is not surprising that the American currency is rising again. It is rising moderately, as the prospect of resuming full-scale war is not on the table either. No one wants it, but Iran is ready for it, while the US is unlikely to be.

As a result, we find ourselves with something between a ceasefire and full-scale war. Military experts probably cannot even describe the current situation with a single term, as such a term simply does not exist. However, there is effectively no ceasefire now, and negotiations have long taken on a formal status. The market continues to ignore all macroeconomic and fundamental backgrounds, so even the European Central Bank's readiness to raise interest rates today does not play any role.

Just think about it: the ECB is ready to tighten monetary policy (the first and only major central bank to do so), yet the euro continues to fall. When will we see this again? It's all because 90% of the dynamics of the currency market and currency instruments are determined by geopolitics. We have been highlighting this for three months straight. Therefore, today it absolutely does not matter what decision the ECB will make (though it is essentially already known), what rhetoric Christine Lagarde will maintain (even if she promises five more rate hikes), or what statements will be made regarding the economy and inflation.

It is evident to all that if the conflict in the Middle East is not resolved, inflation will continue to accelerate, and a single interest rate hike will not extinguish this process. Thus, there is no sense in just tightening policy, and whether the ECB is ready to raise rates multiple times remains a big question, given the European economy's growth rate in the first quarter. However, let us repeat once more: all this information is currently irrelevant. Perhaps the market will react, for formality's sake, to the results of today's meeting and Lagarde's speech. But then everything will revert to the norm. The pair may change direction five times in a day solely based on geopolitical factors.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 11 is 65 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1485 and 1.1615 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned upwards, indicating a trend change to upward. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area and formed two bearish divergences, warning of the onset of a downward correction that has not yet completed. On Friday, it entered the oversold area, warning of a possible completion of the correction.

Closest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1536

S2 – 1.1475

S3 – 1.1414

Closest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1658

R3 – 1.1719

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, which is presumably a correction within the global upward trend. The global fundamental background for the dollar remains extremely negative, and only geopolitical factors regularly provide support to it. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1485 and 1.1475. Long positions become relevant when the price is above the moving average line, targeting 1.1719 and 1.1780. The market continues to move away from geopolitical factors, but in recent weeks, the dollar has been in demand as hopes for peace in the Middle East have grown weaker.

Notes on Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate a probable price channel, within which the pair will operate for the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

The CCI indicator: its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The GBP/USD currency pair showed mixed movements throughout Wednesday. The market could not decide how to react to the breakdown of negotiations between Iran and the US, the new attacks by Iran and the US on each other's positions in the Middle East, and the inflation report, which met expectations. As a result, we observed low volatility and a market reluctant to make hasty decisions. Although the negotiations between Tehran and Washington appear deadlocked, we have little doubt they will resume soon. At least for now, war in the Middle East has not resumed, despite Iran's attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Thus, there are no compelling reasons for a new risk-off flight to the dollar. However, there are also no compelling reasons to eliminate the US dollar. The market is in no hurry, simply waiting.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend continues, and the price is below the Ichimoku indicator lines. As we expected, the pair's growth on Friday was an exception, as the market has paid little attention to macroeconomic data in recent months. Geopolitics also does not support the dollar as strongly as before, but many factors will support the currency in 2026. On the daily timeframe, it is evident that the pair has been in a sideways range for 9 months.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, exactly one trading signal was formed — a buy signal. At the start of the US session, the price bounced from the 1.3369-1.3392 area and rose by a full 20 pips. Therefore, there was no loss on the long position, but there was no substantial profit either, as the price quickly returned to its original level.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound indicate that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross each other and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are moving apart, with non-commercial traders dominating with... sales. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for riskier currencies is low.

In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which are clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. However, geopolitical factors currently take precedence, which have recently provided strong support to the dollar. As the conflict in the Middle East is not yet resolved, the US dollar may still see further growth. According to the latest COT report (dated June 2), the "Non-commercial" group closed 4,300 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 9,200 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its upward trend due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and in the relations between Iran and the US. The macroeconomic and fundamental background still has little influence on the pair's movements (with rare exceptions). We do not believe that, without a real escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar will show strong growth, but the US currency's position is currently more advantageous than that of the British pound.

For June 11, we identify the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3437) and Kijun-sen line (1.3394) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Thursday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, while only the Producer Price Index will be released in the US. After the publication of the May inflation report, this report has practically no significance, except for purely statistical purposes.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting the 1.3301-1.3309 range if price consolidates below the 1.3369-1.3377 area. Long positions will be relevant in the event of a bounce from the 1.3369-1.3377 area, targeting the Senkou Span B line.

Notes on Illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator shifted to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extremum levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts represents the size of the net position of each category of traders.

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to move as if it were doing someone a favor. Despite several important events over the past day, the market found nothing interesting in them. A day earlier, we noted that, excluding last Friday's movement, the pair remains within a sideways channel. As a result of a 100-pip decline amid strong Nonfarms, the channel simply shifted lower. The nature of the pair's movement has not changed at all: it remains in the same weakly volatile flat. On Wednesday, the US inflation report for May was published. Although the actual figure matched the forecast, the market would not have overlooked the fact that inflation had doubled in three months. Now, the market continues to focus only on geopolitics, and even in that area, it does not react to all news. Yesterday, it became known that Iran launched missiles at some US allies in the region, and Trump effectively acknowledged the breakdown of negotiations. There was also no reaction to these events.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend resumed, but whether it will continue is a big question. If Tehran and Washington somehow sign a deal, demand for the US currency will decline. However, at this time, the parties are much closer to resuming war, so the dollar remains strong across the market.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, three trading signals were formed. Twice, the price bounced from the area of 1.1536-1.1542, worked through the Kijun-sen line, bounced back from it, and returned to the area of 1.1536-1.1542. Thus, traders had the opportunity to open two profitable trades. However, due to low volatility, the profit was minimal.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 2. The weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish" but has declined significantly due to geopolitical events. Traders have been getting rid of the euro in favor of the US dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but for a time, the dollar served as a "reserve currency." However, this process may have already concluded.

We still do not see any fundamental factors to strengthen the euro, while there remain enough factors for a decline in the dollar. The war in the Middle East has made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but once the "expiry date" of this factor passes, everything will return to normal. That date may have already passed. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will remain relevant. Over the past few months, the pair has not come particularly close to this line.

The positioning of the indicator's red and blue lines indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 12,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 7,000. Correspondingly, the net position increased by 21,400 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, but there is no resumption of full-scale war, nor any peace deals. Thus, there are currently no sufficient reasons for the dollar to rise, and no significant reasons for the euro to strengthen. However, considering ongoing geopolitical changes, such reasons may emerge.

For June 11, we identify the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1637) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1573). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Thursday, the results of the European Central Bank meeting will be announced, along with a speech by Christine Lagarde. The ECB's decision on rates is already largely known, so we do not expect strong market reactions to this event today. Most likely, the reaction will be formal and will not influence the technical picture or the power dynamics between bulls and bears.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1444 if the price consolidates below the 1.1536-1.1542 area. Long positions can be opened if there is consolidation above 1.1585, targeting 1.1637.

Notes on Illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator shifted to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extremum levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts represents the size of the net position of each category of traders.

On Tuesday, I wrote that the probability of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike by the end of the year currently stands at around 70%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. On Wednesday, it became known that inflation in the US surged to 4.2%. While this figure aligns with market expectations, it is hardly normal. In just three months, the consumer price index has accelerated from 2.4% to 4.2% and continues to move away from the Fed's target.

We have already debated many times whether the FOMC committee under Kevin Warsh will move towards tightening policy. I believe the FOMC will wait and drag its feet, trying to avoid raising interest rates. However, it cannot be denied that recent US economic data (not just inflation) have somewhat increased the likelihood of policy tightening in 2026.

Firstly, this refers to the US labor market, which began to recover in 2026 after three rounds of easing in 2025. The last three Nonfarm Payroll reports have indeed shown promising figures, bringing them closer to four-year highs when the labor market encountered no problems. Consequently, the Fed may no longer need to focus all its attention on the labor market.

Secondly, as mentioned, inflation has risen to 4.2% and is unlikely to stop at this level. This means that either a tightening of Fed policy or a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is needed to slow it. The FOMC committee is probably desperately awaiting the second event to avoid the first.

Thirdly, economic growth in the US accelerated slightly in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year, but still remains significantly below even a "neutral" level. I would remind you that earlier economists estimated that, under Donald Trump, his policies would have caused the US GDP to miss at least 0.9% in 2025. Therefore, current growth rates are not high, and raising interest rates will lead to a "cooling" of the economy and the labor market. This is certainly not what Trump aims to achieve.

Based on the aforementioned, I believe we should pay attention to statements from Fed officials. So far, none of them have signaled a readiness to vote for policy tightening before the end of 2026.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (bottom picture), while in the shorter term, it is within a downward segment of the trend that may already be complete. In my opinion, this is a good time to consider forming long positions. The unsuccessful attempt to break the mark of 1.1513, which corresponds to 76.4% on the Fibonacci scale, combined with the completed appearance of the downward segment of the trend, suggests that the instrument may transition to building an upward wave set with targets around the 17 figure and higher.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has become clearer. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, while EUR/USD has formed five. Consequently, the British pound may limit itself to forming a corrective structure, and both currency pairs may begin to build upward trend segments. At the moment, this is merely an assumption, but a plausible one. If it is accurate, the instrument will start to rise, with targets around the 35 level and higher. Market participants currently have a good opportunity to make purchases.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

According to the published data, the overall consumer price index month-over-month decreased to 0.5%. Notably, this indicator shows a downward trend for the second consecutive month after reaching a peak of 0.9% MoM in March. Year-over-year, the overall CPI demonstrates a contrasting dynamic, surging to 4.2% in May. This is the highest indicator since May 2023. Overall inflation has been accelerating for the third consecutive month (for comparison: in February this year, the overall CPI was at 2.4% YoY).

The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, slowed its growth even more than expected (this is the only component of the report that came in the "red zone"). Instead of the anticipated decrease to 0.3%, the metric fell to 0.2% MoM. Meanwhile, the annual core CPI has been rising actively for the third month in a row, reaching 2.9% in May (the highest level since September last year).

The structure of the report indicates that the main driver of May's growth was, of course, the energy sector, which accounted for over 60% of the total index increase in May. The monthly rise in the overall energy sector was 3.9% (following a 3.8% increase in the previous month), with a year-on-year increase of 23.5%. Specifically, gasoline prices in the US rose by 7.0% in May, while the annual increase reached 40.5%.

However, despite the surge in overall inflation, the core index (Core CPI) shows relatively modest growth on an annual basis. As noted above, in month-over-month terms, it is even slowing. This dynamic is due to several factors. In particular, May saw a decrease in housing services: monthly growth slowed to 0.3%, down from 0.6% the previous month. Annually, Shelter rose by 3.4%. This indicates a gradual cooling of this critical component for the CPI. In the food sector, prices rose by 0.2% MoM (3.1% YoY), with Food-at-Home increasing by only 0.1%, while dining out added 0.3%. The cost of air travel increased by 2.7%, and medical services rose by 0.5%. At the same time, in May, prices declined for used cars (-0.3%) and auto insurance (-1.7%).

What does the May CPI report indicate? First and foremost, it suggests that the current round of price acceleration is largely driven by external factors, primarily the energy component. Meanwhile, the core CPI showed relatively weak growth, suggesting that widespread inflation across most categories of goods has not yet materialized.

It is also worth noting the slowdown in the month-over-month CPI dynamics while the annual figures accelerate. The decrease in the growth rates of the CPI on a monthly basis (both overall and core) indicates a weakening of the current inflation impulse. In other words, prices in May increased at a slower pace than in April, including in sensitive demand categories. This is a sign of gradually easing price pressures. This primarily concerns the core measure: the slowdown to 0.2% MoM, when extrapolated, corresponds to a trajectory lowering to 2.4-2.5% YoY. At the same time, the acceleration of the overall annual CPI is partially explained by a low-base comparison effect.

Overall, the report allows the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see position without taking additional steps toward policy tightening or even tightening its rhetoric in the near term. This is precisely why EUR/USD traders practically ignored the release. On the one hand, inflation remains high, but on the other hand, its structure is not "tight" enough for the market to start reassessing rate expectations.

In other words, the May CPI report in the US did not bolster the greenback despite the rise in the annual figures. Responding to the report, the EUR/USD pair retreated from intraday highs, albeit by only 20 pips. This indicates that traders "took note of" the report but did not assign it decisive significance. The further price direction will be determined by geopolitical factors, primarily the dynamics of US-Iran negotiations. Until this intrigue is resolved, the pair will likely oscillate within the range of 1.1510–1.1580, where it has been trading for the third consecutive day.

Investors, holding their breath in anticipation of the key Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, received data that generally aligned with forecasts. However, hopes for a sustainable recovery were dashed: the hawkish tilt of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and renewed escalation in the Middle East continue to exert crushing pressure on the non-yielding asset.

Fundamental Background: "Hawkish Shock" and Geopolitics

1. CPI Data: Forecast Alignment Did Not Bring Relief

The main event on Wednesday was the publication of the US inflation data for May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 4.2% from 3.8% in April, matching market forecasts and marking the highest level since May 2023. Month-over-month, the CPI increased by 0.5%, also in line with expectations.

Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a less aggressive trend: month-over-month growth was 0.2% (forecasted at 0.3%), while year-over-year it stood at 2.9% (forecasted at 2.9%). This slight "underperformance" in the monthly core figure caused short-term optimism in the market: the US dollar weakened, and gold received a temporary reprieve, bouncing back from its lows.

However, this bounce proved to be short-lived. Investors remain convinced that inflationary pressures are unlikely to sustainably ease until the crisis between the US and Iran is resolved and oil prices return to pre-war levels.

2. The Fed: Probability of Rate Hike Increases

Despite the CPI data aligning with forecasts, it did not fundamentally change market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders assess the probability of at least one interest rate hike by the end of the year at around 70%.

This is a significant increase compared to 50% reported prior to last week's strong employment report (NFP).

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has settled above 4.50%, making the US dollar extremely attractive in yield terms relative to gold. High interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no coupon income, while simultaneously supporting the dollar and making commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

3. Geopolitics: Escalation in the Persian Gulf

Contrary to expectations, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East did not provide support for gold. Earlier in the week, the US carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran after President Donald Trump accused Tehran of downing an American Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) struck US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

This paradoxical behavior can be explained by the fact that the geopolitical crisis, rather than directly increasing demand for safe-haven assets, works through the "oil channel." Rising oil prices heighten inflationary expectations, which in turn drive central banks to tighten policy, making this the primary bearish factor for gold. WTI oil prices, although corrected below $90 per barrel, remain significantly above pre-war levels.

Summary Table of Fundamental Factors

Key Events of the Week

Conclusion

Gold is under intense pressure from a combination of hawkish factors, and the short-term bounce following the CPI data did not change this picture. Strong US labor market data (NFP) and the subsequent reevaluation of Fed rate expectations (probability of a hike—70%) dealt a crushing blow to the non-yielding asset.

The technical breakdown below the 200-day moving average (4380.00) after 640 trading days above it confirmed a trend change. Gold is no longer trading in a "buy on dips" mode that has dominated the market for the past two years.

Nevertheless, structural bullish drivers (central bank purchases, currency devaluation, geopolitical fragmentation) remain in place. Economists maintain that the upward trend is merely postponed, not canceled. However, for it to resume, moderation in inflation driven by rising energy prices is necessary.

Investors should exercise extreme caution. The PPI data on Thursday and the FOMC meeting on June 16-17 will be the next determining macroeconomic tests.

An official release from the Bank of Japan states that Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized. Furthermore, Ueda will not be able to participate in the two-day monetary policy meeting scheduled for June 15 and 16. The meeting will be led by Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, while another deputy, Shinichi Uchida, will hold the press conference after the decision is made.

There is currently no additional information about Ueda's health; however, the central bank indicated that he is likely to remain in the medical facility for about two weeks. It is expected that the BoJ will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting, bringing the base rate to 1%—the highest level in more than three decades.

The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen against key global currencies traded on the exchanges as of Wednesday. The Japanese yen has demonstrated the strongest performance against the Australian dollar.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading around $1,635, bouncing after reaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from its low of $1,500 to its high of $1,725. Ethereum may struggle to continue its upward trend, and we could expect a further downward movement in the coming days, potentially reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $1,590.

Given the prevailing bearish pressure, Ethereum is expected to return to the $1,500 level, a key level that could be seen as a decisive point for entering long positions. Alternatively, if the ETH price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, it could be viewed as a bullish signal.

Conversely, if Ethereum consolidates above the 21-period SMA at $1,655 in the coming hours, we could expect the bullish cycle to resume, potentially reaching the 2/8 Murray level around $1,750 and even the upper band of the descending trend channel around $1,785.

Ethereum could recover some of its losses if it consolidates above $1,650 in the coming days, potentially reaching the 200-period EMA around $1,925. Given that all cryptocurrencies are currently under bearish pressure, we could look for opportunities to sell below $1,655, with targets at $1,580 and ultimately around the 0/8 Murray level at $1,500.

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1544, near the 21-period SMA and within the descending trend channel formed in early May. The euro has been following a bearish bias, and we believe it could continue its fall in the coming days, potentially reaching the 6/8 Murray level around 1.1474.

If the euro continues its downtrend, we could expect it to reach the resistance zone of 1.1596 or around 1.1575, leading to further selling in the coming days with a target at 1.1474.

A consolidation above 1.1545 could be seen as a buying opportunity. Should the upward momentum prevail, we expect the euro to reach the 7/8 Murray level around 1.1596 and potentially the upper band of the descending trend channel around 1.1615.

The Eagle indicator is reaching oversold levels, so we believe the euro could consolidate above 1.15 in the coming days. Given this scenario, a technical bounce above the 6/8 Murray level could be seen as a signal to enter long positions.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy EUR/USD above the 21-period SMA with a target around 1.1634.

Crude oil is trading around $88.17, rebounding after reaching a low of $84.71. With this drop, crude oil filled the gap left on May 28th around $87.20. Technically, the H4 chart shows that crude oil is displaying a positive signal, and we could expect it to continue rising in the coming hours above $87.50, reaching the psychological level of $90. It could even reach the upper band of the ascending trend channel around $92.

Crude oil is likely to continue rising, as we observe the formation of a double-bottom pattern around $85.50. This pattern could indicate a positive scenario for crude oil in the coming days, so we could continue buying in the next few hours, with targets at the 200 EMA around $92.65. We could expect crude oil to fill the gap left on May 21st around $95.96.

In case crude oil encounter strong resistance around the 21-period SMA, we could expect a technical correction and consolidation, paving the way for a bullish scenario.

A decisive break above the descending trend channel and consolidation above the 200-period EMA around 92.65 could shift the outlook for crude oil, potentially reaching $95.96 and eventually the 8/8 Murray pattern around the psychological level of $100.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy crude oil from the $87.50 level with targets at $90 and $92.65. The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, which supports our bullish strategy.

Bitcoin is trading around $61,041, reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. We could expect a technical bounce around this area, as Bitcoin has found strong support.

If Bitcoin consolidates above $61,000 in the next few hours, we could expect it to reach the 0/8 Murray level around $62,500 and even continue rising to the 1/8 Murray level around $65,625.

Conversely, a drop below $61,000 could make Bitcoin fall to the -1/8 Murray level around $59,375. We could even expect it to touch the lower band of the descending trend channel around $57,338.

The Eagle indicator is showing oversold levels; hence, technically, Bitcoin is expected to continue bouncing above the psychological level of $60,000 in the coming days. In an extreme scenario, it could reach -1/8 Murray around the June 5th low of $59,300.

If Bitcoin consolidates above $61,000, the outlook could be positive and would be viewed as a buy signal with targets at the upper band of the descending trend channel around $68,750.

EUR/USD continues to drift gradually lower. This week, bulls have already made two attempts to halt the bearish advance, but both ended unsuccessfully. Although the Nonfarm Payrolls report does not belong to the category of geopolitical events, it triggered a sharp decline in the pair last Friday, resulting in the formation of bearish imbalance 16. At present, this imbalance serves not only as an area of interest for bears but also as a resistance zone for bulls.

On Monday, bulls failed to break through this zone, and they were equally unsuccessful on Tuesday. As for Wednesday, there was little chance of such an attempt, as active military operations resumed in the Middle East. Iran responded to U.S. strikes on its military facilities, which Washington had carried out in retaliation for the destruction of a U.S. military helicopter. Therefore, although today's bearish pressure remains relatively weak and cautious, the bears currently appear to hold the more favorable position. The technical picture supports further weakness in the euro, while the renewed escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to support the U.S. dollar.

Tomorrow, the European Central Bank is highly likely to raise interest rates, yet the market has shown little reaction to this event despite having had ample opportunity to do so since the beginning of the week. It should be recalled that the ECB's intention to tighten monetary policy has been known for several days.

The objective reality is that the conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of ending, while Tehran and Washington remain unable to reach an agreement acceptable to both sides. Iran and the United States resumed exchanging missile strikes this week, and Donald Trump once again threatened Iran with complete military destruction. However, such developments are unlikely to surprise anyone anymore, as both sides have repeatedly carried out strikes while appearing more concerned about avoiding any appearance of weakness than about preserving the negotiation process. As a result, the U.S. dollar remains the preferred currency for traders due to geopolitical considerations.

The pair's movement and trader sentiment will continue to depend primarily on geopolitical developments. If Tehran and Washington ultimately sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, and make progress on the nuclear issue, bears may be forced to retreat, allowing the euro and pound to resume their upward movement. However, negotiations may once again be suspended in the near future.

Under current conditions, traders may continue to focus on bearish patterns. A new sell signal could emerge from bearish imbalance 16 as early as today. Nevertheless, if an agreement between Iran and the United States is eventually reached, the euro may resume its upward movement despite bearish technical patterns. Such a scenario appears unlikely in the near term, which leaves bears with considerable freedom to continue applying pressure. Market sentiment continues to shift from one side to the other, forcing traders to adjust their strategies constantly.

I would once again emphasize that the entire appreciation of the U.S. dollar during January–March was driven solely by geopolitical developments. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and bulls dominated trading activity for more than a month. At present, the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement is declining once again, and the market remains highly skeptical of any reports suggesting a rapid end to the conflict or a breakthrough in negotiations between Iran and the United States. Consequently, geopolitical factors continue to exert underlying pressure on EUR/USD.

The economic calendar had virtually no impact on trader sentiment on Wednesday. Only one report was released during the day that could have attracted market attention. U.S. inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, matching market expectations. As a result, traders found little reason to react.

Bulls still have numerous reasons to remain active in 2026, and the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and fundamentally, Trump's policies, which contributed to the significant weakening of the dollar last year, have not changed. In the coming months, the U.S. dollar may occasionally strengthen as investors seek safe-haven assets, but such support requires continued escalation in the Middle East. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend in EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but what will provide bears with a long-term basis for maintaining pressure?

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – ECB Interest Rate Decision (12:15 UTC).
• United States – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).
• Eurozone – ECB Press Conference (12:45 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 11 contains several events, with the ECB meeting undoubtedly being the most important. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment during the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop changed sharply three months ago, but the broader trend cannot yet be considered canceled or completed. Therefore, bulls may well resume their advance in the near future if geopolitical developments provide at least some support.

At present, traders can only maintain existing short positions initiated from imbalance 15 while waiting for a new sell signal from imbalance 16. The decline in the pair has been prolonged for objective reasons. Without strong U.S. labor market and unemployment data, the support zone represented by imbalance 13 would most likely have held. However, that support failed, and bears now have an opportunity to continue their advance toward targets below 1.1412, the swing low of March 13.

GBP/USD has a good opportunity to continue its decline after reacting to bearish imbalance 19. However, the situation is not as straightforward as traders might prefer. Following Friday's decline triggered by the Nonfarm Payrolls report, a new bearish imbalance 20 was formed. Yesterday, the price fully filled this imbalance, and at the current pace of bullish pressure, it may be invalidated. If that happens, the bearish move will be interrupted before it has properly begun. Traders will once again be reminded of how quickly conditions can change in both the currency market and the Middle East.

At the beginning of the week, market sentiment was optimistic once again after Donald Trump stated that a deal with Iran could be signed within the next two weeks. However, as of Wednesday, Trump is talking about resuming military action against Iran and describing negotiations with Tehran as having broken down. It is difficult to determine who triggered the latest escalation and ceasefire violation in the Middle East. According to official reports, Iran destroyed a U.S. military helicopter on Tuesday, Washington responded with retaliatory strikes, and by Wednesday Tehran had launched attacks against neighboring countries allied with the United States. What comes next remains unclear.

Overall, the situation surrounding the Middle East conflict remains more positive than it was a few months ago, when the sides were engaged in full-scale warfare. Nevertheless, the geopolitical balance can shift in either direction at any moment. Over the past several weeks, we have witnessed numerous potential escalations, and only the reluctance of both sides to engage in active military operations has prevented a renewed war.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's sharp declines this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still holding and may be extended for another 60 days. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations is largely based on statements from Donald Trump. Iran presents a very different picture. The situation continues to fluctuate between improvement and deterioration. At present, the market retains some confidence that an agreement can be reached, but that confidence has been steadily fading.

The technical picture is currently as follows. Bullish imbalance 18 generated a reaction, but bearish imbalance 19 eventually produced a sell signal as well. However, only two days after its formation, we are seeing bullish activity rather than bearish pressure, which does not even fully align with the current geopolitical backdrop. As a result, geopolitical developments continue to reverse price action on a regular basis, while traders often struggle to react quickly enough to conflicting news and events.

The economic calendar on Wednesday was nearly empty. The U.S. inflation report could have generated a strong market reaction if the May reading had deviated from market expectations by at least 0.1 percentage point. However, no deviation was recorded, and the market's response was therefore minimal.

The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I continue to expect weakness in the U.S. dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States changes little in this regard. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the broader outlook for the U.S. currency remains less favorable. If the U.S. economy gains momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its monetary tightening cycle, and the conflict between the United States and Iran becomes prolonged, then the dollar could indeed target the 1.3100–1.3000 level. However, in my opinion, the long-term outlook for the U.S. currency could not have changed because of a single positive Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Federal Reserve has not yet signaled any readiness to tighten policy.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 11 contains two releases, neither of which I consider particularly important. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment may nevertheless be noticeable during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish, although the latest signal generated is a sell signal. Therefore, in the near term, provided geopolitical developments do not interfere, bears may continue to target the March 31 low at 1.3158. Liquidity may be taken from recent swing levels, after which bulls could regain control if the geopolitical backdrop becomes more favorable.

At present, it is difficult to imagine a quick resolution to the conflict between Iran and the United States, which limits the pound's upside potential. At the same time, the dollar continues to face periodic pressure as occasional positive signals from the Middle East continue to emerge.

Donald Trump said Iran would pay a price for dragging out peace talks. A deal could already have been struck, but Tehran is dragging its feet. Do the president's words mean that the bombing of the Islamic Republic, launched after a US helicopter was shot down, will continue? Much will depend on oil's reaction. Its response to the escalation in the Middle East has been rather odd.

Investors are so convinced a US-Iran standoff will end soon that they are demanding discounts when buying crude. Nobody wants to pay more for August-delivery barrels than they would if the Strait of Hormuz were open. At the same time, rising throughput of the world's main oil artery and reduced Chinese imports are weighing on Brent. Few seem concerned about the record drawdown in inventories.

If oil does not rise in response to further escalation, it will give the White House more political leverage. The US could return to active strikes on Iran in the hope that the oil market has adapted to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, that US inflation will not pick up, and that the Federal Reserve will be unable to raise interest rates.

Consumer prices in May indeed brought no surprises. Their 4.2% rise, and core inflation accelerating from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, were forecast by Bloomberg analysts. The "sell the rumor, buy the fact" dynamic pushed EUR/USD higher. However, bulls are advancing northward cautiously.

The main reason is turmoil in US equities. First, stock indices fell in the largest sell?off wave since 2020, then they posted the steepest roller-coaster moves since the White House abandoned massive tariffs in 2025. Rising S&P 500 volatility has led to the closing of both equity positions and hedges. Those hedges had involved selling the greenback to insure currency risk; now the greenback is being bought.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD bounced off the lower band of the fair-value range of 1.1530–1.1680. If bulls manage to hold above the key pivot at 1.1555, the odds of a further rally toward 1.1615 and 1.1640 will increase. A break of that resistance would be a signal to

Gold and US stock indices: recent dynamics

Gold is a safe?haven asset, but over the past several years, it has behaved like a risk asset. Massive Fed monetary stimulus pushed XAU/USD to records in 2011 and 2020, and a federal funds rate cut at the end of 2025 helped the metal soar to new all?time highs. It came to be seen as a highly liquid portfolio instrument that could help meet margin requirements during equity sell-offs.

As a result, a positive correlation between gold and equity indices developed, which was broken by events in the Middle East. While the S&P 500 managed to gain about one?fifth of its value from the March low, the precious metal kept falling. Of course, it lacks the powerful drivers of blockbuster corporate earnings and the AI technology frenzy. Still, XAU/USD hasn't looked this bleak in a long time.

The decline is being aided by an unfavorable external environment. Gold pays no interest, so its price typically falls during rallies in Treasury yields. The metal is quoted in US dollars, so a rally in the USD is plainly punitive for it.

Gold and US Treasury yield dynamics

If in 2022–2023 gold was supported by central bank buying and ETF inflows, none of that is present now. Regulators made only modest purchases of bars in April after net sales in March. According to research by Standard Chartered Bank, around 270 tonnes of holdings of specialist exchange-traded funds were underwater in early June. The fall in XAU/USD pushed that figure to 298 tonnes. Capital outflows from ETFs will exacerbate selling in the spot and futures markets.

The unfavorable external backdrop and lack of demand support from bullion purchases and specialist ETFs are only part of the problem. Gold has broken long-standing relationships because of a burst bubble. At the start of 2026 it rose too quickly and began to resemble Bitcoin in its heyday. Both assets were bought simply because of their straight-line rallies — rallies that had no fundamental justification. In the end it finished as it had to: a collapse.

Technically, on the daily gold chart, the bears are preparing to resume the downtrend. A decisive break of support at the pivot level of $4,150 per ounce will be a necessary condition. That would allow adding to short positions initiated around $4,415 and $4,380.

In a joint statement published on Wednesday, the banks said the stablecoin will be issued under a trust arrangement in which all three banks will act as co-founders and a trust bank or similar institution will serve as trustee. They will create a dedicated council to develop operational standards and a governance framework. The instrument is classified as an electronic payment instrument under Japanese law and is intended for a broad range of use cases—from corporate settlements to cross-border payments.

The initiative builds on months of preparatory work and enjoys direct regulatory backing. The three banks first joined forces in October last year on a pilot project to study joint stablecoin issuance mechanisms. In November the Financial Services Agency formally supported the initiative, confirming its conformity with existing financial rules.

The project is being implemented under the FSA's "FinTech Proof-of-Concept Hub" program, which has supported fintech experiments since 2017.

It is notable that the announcement from Japan's largest banks fits into a global wave of institutional stablecoin expansion. Mastercard has integrated stablecoin settlements into its payments infrastructure. The BIS and major central banks are testing blockchain settlements with real money under Project Agor. Georgia launched a state stablecoin in partnership with Tether. The US Securities and Exchange Commission registered Paxos as the first blockchain clearing organization in the United States. The Japanese banking system now joins that list in the second-largest developed economy.

It is evident that stablecoins are rapidly evolving from crypto-trading instruments into core settlement infrastructure for global finance. Japan — known for its regulatory caution — by participating decisively tilts the debate toward a structural shift rather than a temporary trend.

Trading recommendations:

Buyers of Bitcoin are targeting a return to $63,600, a level that would open a direct path to $65,800 and then to $67,700; a breach above $67,700 would indicate attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $61,100. A return of price below that area could quickly push BTC toward $59,600, with a farther target at $58,200.

As for Ethereum, a clear hold above $1,645 would open a direct route to $1,724. The farther target is the high near $1,783; a break above that level would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,563. A fall below that level could rapidly send ETH toward $1,476, with a deeper target at $1,401.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

A test of the 160.44 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential.

The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar, as today's U.S. inflation data may encourage traders to continue buying USD/JPY. However, it should not be forgotten that the pair has already moved beyond the Bank of Japan's psychological level of 160 yen, so currency intervention may occur at any moment—especially in the case of further yen weakening—which could lead to a sharp decline in USD/JPY.

Regarding inflation, traders will most likely focus more on the Core CPI. To better understand inflation dynamics, this indicator is often analyzed in detail. By excluding the most volatile components such as food and energy prices, it provides a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends that are less affected by short-term fluctuations. An increase in Core CPI is also viewed as a positive signal for the U.S. dollar and a negative factor for the Japanese yen.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 160.57 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 161.09 (thicker green line on the chart). At 161.09, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). A further rise in the pair today is possible in the case of strong U.S. inflation data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 160.39 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 160.57 and 161.09 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 160.39 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key downward target is 159.80, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Downward pressure on the pair may return in the case of central bank intervention. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 160.57 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 160.39 and 159.80 can be expected.

What Is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be based on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Ahead of important fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if risk management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

A test of the 1.3389 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a long position in the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 5 points.

The absence of new economic data from the United Kingdom that could act as a catalyst for pound movement created a kind of vacuum, where traders preferred to remain on the sidelines. This resulted in a relatively narrow trading range, with the pair fluctuating within a few points and showing no clearly defined trend.

Next, we are awaiting the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and Core CPI excluding food and energy. The Consumer Price Index is one of the key macroeconomic indicators reflecting price dynamics across a broad range of goods and services purchased by households. Its rise signals inflationary pressures in the economy, while a decline may indicate deflation. In terms of monetary policy, rising CPI often prompts the Federal Reserve to tighten policy, including raising interest rates. The projected increase in both headline CPI and core CPI is an important factor supporting the U.S. dollar.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3404 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3451 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3451, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pound appreciation today can only be expected in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3377 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 1.3404 and 1.3451 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3377 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key downward target is 1.3331, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Selling pressure may return in the case of a sharp increase in U.S. inflation. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3404 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.3377 and 1.3331 can be expected.

What Is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be based on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Ahead of major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if risk management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

A test of the 1.1556 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 1.1556 led to the execution of Scenario #2 for selling the euro, but no major downward movement followed.

Next, we are waiting for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI excluding volatile components such as food and energy. Both indicators are expected to show positive momentum, which traditionally supports the U.S. dollar. However, not only the absolute level of inflation matters, but also its changes compared to previous reporting periods. A sustained acceleration in inflation will be interpreted as a signal for tighter monetary policy, which would support the dollar.

It is also worth recalling recent statements from Federal Reserve representatives, which overall point toward a more hawkish stance in the future. If these expectations are not confirmed, the dollar may weaken significantly against the euro.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered at a price level around 1.1562 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1594. At 1.1594, I plan to exit the market and also consider short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth will only be possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: Euro purchases may also be considered after two consecutive tests of the 1.1544 level, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1562 and 1.1594 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1544 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1515, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return in the case of a sharp increase in inflation. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: Euro selling may also be considered after two consecutive tests of the 1.1562 level, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.1544 and 1.1515 may be expected.

What Is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Ahead of important fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if risk management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Next, we are expecting the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Core CPI excluding food and energy prices. These are highly important indicators for the Federal Reserve and traders. Despite expectations of an increase, market reaction may be mixed. If the figures come in above forecasts, the dollar is likely to strengthen, giving traders confidence in further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, if inflation comes in below expectations, it may raise concerns about slowing economic growth, which in turn could lead to a weakening of the U.S. dollar.

The key factor will not only be the absolute level of the indicators but also their dynamics compared to previous readings. A sustained acceleration in inflation will signal tighter monetary policy, supporting the dollar. Conversely, signs of slowing inflationary pressure may push the dollar lower, as the market begins to price in the possibility of future rate cuts.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no clear market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1570, targeting 1.1600 and 1.1625;
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1540, targeting 1.1505 and 1.1480;

For GBP/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3405, targeting 1.3441 and 1.3478;
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3380, targeting 1.3360 and 1.3340;

For USD/JPY:

• Buy on a breakout above 160.60, targeting 160.90 and 161.17;
• Sell on a breakout below 160.30, targeting 160.02 and 159.80;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversion to the Mean) for the Second Half of the Day:

For EUR/USD:

• Look for sell opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1576, followed by a move back below this level;
• Look for buy opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1532, followed by a move back above this level;

For GBP/USD:

• Look for sell opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3415, followed by a move back below this level;
• Look for buy opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3360, followed by a move back above this level;

For AUD/USD:

• Look for sell opportunities after a false breakout above 0.7046, followed by a move back below this level;
• Look for buy opportunities after a false breakout below 0.6994, followed by a move back above this level;

For USD/CAD:

• Look for sell opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3960, followed by a move back below this level;
• Look for buy opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3900, followed by a move back above this level;