The latest rally in the pound began with a "Three Drives" pattern. Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very start of the move, and the trend has remained bullish throughout. At present, the truce is quite fragile, and the parties involved have not yet decided whether to continue negotiations or resume fighting. Talks could restart this week—but so could the war. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under a double blockade, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could potentially face the same situation. However, as of Monday, the overall situation has not materially changed. Both sides are signaling a willingness to move toward each other, but no concrete steps have been taken.

The "Three Drives" pattern, marked on the chart with a triangle, allowed bulls to take control. A second reaction was observed at imbalance 16, though such reactions are typically weaker than the first. The pair also swept liquidity from the February 26 high, and together these factors triggered the current corrective pullback, which may end around imbalance 19. Thus, in the near term, either a new bullish signal will form, or the bullish pattern will be invalidated, opening the way for bears to take control.

There was no significant economic news on Monday. Tomorrow, several reports will be released in the UK and the U.S., but greater interest lies in potential statements from Donald Trump later today. It is unlikely that the U.S. president will be pleased with the failure of negotiations with Iran, so new threats or even a resumption of missile strikes could follow.

In the United States, the broader fundamental backdrop still suggests that, in the long term, the dollar is more likely to weaken. Even the conflict between Iran and the U.S. does not fundamentally change this. Geopolitics temporarily revived demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, but overall, the long-term outlook for the U.S. currency remains challenging. The U.S. labor market continues to struggle, the economy is approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not planning to tighten monetary policy in 2026. In addition, there have been several large protests across the U.S. directed personally against Donald Trump. From an economic perspective, I see no strong reasons for sustained dollar growth.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• UK – Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC)
• UK – Average Earnings Index (06:00 UTC)
• UK – Claimant Count Change (06:00 UTC)
• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
• U.S. – Retail Sales (12:30 UTC)

On April 21, the economic calendar includes five entries, with UK data drawing particular interest. The news flow may have some impact on market sentiment on Tuesday.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The "Three Drives" pattern signaled potential growth early on, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and confirmation signal. The price has swept liquidity from bullish swings on March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, yet bears have not launched an attack—another positive factor for the pound. Therefore, despite geopolitical uncertainty, I expect the upward movement to continue. Most likely, the euro will also continue to rise. My target for the pound is the 2026 high. The reaction to imbalance 16 triggered the current pullback, but a reaction to imbalance 19 could provide traders with a new buying signal.

Last week, a reaction was observed at bullish imbalance 12, which triggered the advance of buyers. Thus, traders had the opportunity to open long positions, which are now in solid profit. At this point, traders can decide whether to lock in profits or wait for further upside. Partial profit-taking is also an option. The geopolitical backdrop is currently more favorable than it was two weeks ago, which likely explains the sharp improvement in bullish sentiment. However, sentiment could soon shift in favor of the bears. From a technical perspective, no bearish signals or patterns have formed, so I am not currently expecting a decline in the euro.

It is worth noting that the entire strengthening of the U.S. dollar over the past one and a half to two months has been driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears immediately retreated and bulls rushed in. At present, the truce remains fragile but intact, despite the failure of negotiations last Saturday and their cancellation on Monday. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe the bullish trend has ended, despite the break of key structural lows. The price action over the past two months could turn into a bearish trend if the geopolitical situation deteriorates further—but how much worse can it get? Much of the worst-case scenario has already unfolded. Markets often price in the most pessimistic outcomes in advance. Therefore, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the Middle East conflict.

The technical picture is currently clear. First, the price showed no reaction to imbalance 11, meaning no sell signal was formed. Second, the price reacted to imbalance 12, creating a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has formed, which serves as a zone of interest for future long positions and as support for the euro.

There was no significant news flow on Monday—not even secondary reports. Since negotiations between Iran and the United States did not take place, the market now awaits new statements from top officials of both countries regarding their next steps.

There are still many reasons for bulls to stay active in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant weakening of the dollar last year—have not changed. In the short term, the U.S. dollar may still gain on risk aversion, but this would require continued escalation in the Middle East, which is unsustainable. After just a week of calm, the euro rebounded by nearly 300 points. There are no other strong drivers supporting the dollar. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will drive a long-term bearish push?

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC)
• Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC)
• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
• U.S. – Retail Sales (12:30 UTC)

On April 21, the economic calendar contains four entries, none of which are particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be limited.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news background shifted sharply two months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. Therefore, bulls may continue their advance in the near term, unless geopolitics suddenly shifts toward renewed escalation.

Bulls had the opportunity to open long positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, targeting around the 1.1670 level. This target has long been reached, and the upward movement may continue toward yearly highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which may generate another bullish signal in the future. For the euro to rise freely, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward lasting peace, which is not currently the case. However, bears also lack new reasons to initiate attacks. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis.

After several attempts since early April to consolidate above the 7/8 Murray line, the price of crude oil decisively broke through this strong support level, falling from $87.50 to a low of around $78.

Following a technical rebound above $78, we saw a slight recovery before the close of trading on Friday.

At the start of trading this week, crude oil is once again trading above $87.50. However, we observe a bullish gap that is likely to be filled in the coming days, and the price could fall toward the $81 level.

If the bullish momentum prevails and the crude oil price consolidates above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA, this could be a positive signal that could mark the start of a trend reversal, and it is likely that it will reach the psychological level of $100 over the coming days.

Given that crude oil has failed to break above the downtrend channel on several occasions, we predict a technical correction down to $81 or even to reach the 6/8 Murray level around $75 per barrel.

We should keep an eye on the $89 area to buy above this level and the $87.50 area to sell below it. These levels are decisive points for opening long or short positions.

Gold is trading around $4,809, awaiting a fill of the gap it left at $4,842. Gold is undoubtedly expected to fill this gap in the coming hours, so we will look for opportunities to buy above the 200 EMA around $4,785, with targets at the gap's closure.

On the H4 chart, we can see that gold has widened its trend channel and is expected to continue rising in the coming days, potentially reaching last week's high around $4,885; we could even expect the instrument to reach the psychological level of $5,000.

If gold remains above the 200 EMA or consolidates above $4,760 near the lower band of the uptrend channel in the coming hours, this could be considered a signal to open long positions.

Conversely, a drop and consolidation below $4,750 or a close on the H4 chart below this week's low could change the outlook for gold, and we could expect it to reach the 7/8 Murray level around $4,687, and ultimately a sharp decline toward the 6/8 Murray level at $4,375.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we will look for opportunities to buy gold while the price settles above the 200 EMA or, in an extreme case, if it rebounds within the uptrend channel.

The EUR/USD pair opened with a bearish gap that reached the lower band of the uptrend channel, and since then, we have seen a technical rebound above 1.1735. Currently, the euro is trading below the 21 SMA after filling the gap, but it still has a positive bias, and we could expect consolidation above 1.1782 before a trend reversal occurs.

If the euro falls below 1.1820, we could expect a further bearish movement, and the trend channel could become vulnerable. A break below 1.1718 could reverse the euro's trend, and we could expect EUR/USD to reach the 3/8 Murray level around 1.1596 in the coming days.

As we mentioned last week, strong resistance at 1.1840 acts as a barrier for the euro. Since then, we saw a sharp drop on Friday last week. In the coming days, if a pullback occurs and the price reaches 1.1820 or 1.1840, this zone could be considered for opening short positions.

In the coming hours, we may use an opportunity to sell the euro if the price reaches the 5/8 Murray levels or falls below this zone, as there is strong downward pressure. The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we believe the euro will remain under downward pressure in the coming days.

Bitcoin is trading around $75,135, above the 4/8 Murray line and within the uptrend channel formed since March 29, with a positive bias.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell below the 5/8 Murray line to around the $78,125 level, moving from the upper band of the uptrend channel to the lower band of the uptrend channel.

This technical correction in Bitcoin could mark the start of a new bearish sequence, but this remains to be checked. In this case, we should watch to see if BTC falls below the uptrend channel in the coming days and consolidates below the 3/8 Murray line and below the 200 EMA, which could signal the beginning of a downtrend.

If Bitcoin consolidates above $75,000 in the coming hours, this could be seen as a buying opportunity with targets at $75,800 and at the 5/8 Murray level around $78,125.

The Eagle indicator continues to show a negative signal, so if Bitcoin fails to consolidate above $76,000, it could be considered a signal to sell with targets at the psychological level of $70,000 or around the 200 EMA at $71,600.

Let us begin with the fact that Iran declined the second round of talks with the US, which was supposed to take place today in Islamabad. Market participants link that decision to the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports. Washington, for its part, ties any deblocking to a peace deal — in other words, first a deal, then lifting the blockade.

Moreover, the United States attacked and seized a cargo ship flying the Iranian flag, which the US military says tried to bypass their naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz. Representatives of Iran's Joint Military Command claim that Iranian forces struck US ships with combat drones in response.

All these events cast doubt on a near-term end to the conflict. The situation worsens because the two-week truce between the US and Iran expires in just two days, on April 22. Whether the parties can extend it or hostilities will resume remains an open question.

How do we explain traders' undue optimism? Instead of moving toward the base of the 17th figure, the pair now attempts to close the southern gap, showing inexplicable resilience.

In my view, market participants are now overemphasizing any, even the weakest and most tenuous, signals of a possible resumption of talks. For example, yesterday, media reported that, despite the aforementioned incident in the Strait of Hormuz, Washington is still sending a negotiating delegation to Islamabad led by US Vice President J. D. Vance. The reports claim the negotiating team will land in Pakistan on Monday evening, that is, today.

A logical question arises: did the US delegation led by the second-ranking official in the US political hierarchy really fly to the other side of the world without confirmation of Iran's participation? That question, as they say, carries an asterisk.

The point is that reports claiming Iran refuses the second round of talks remain unofficial. Only Iranian media, citing anonymous sources, reported that the talks would not take place. Meanwhile, Iranian officials did not issue any comments on the negotiations announced by Trump.

In addition, Pakistani media report that local authorities have already stepped up security measures in Islamabad, and such measures usually indicate preparation for meetings of high-level delegations.

The intrigue remains, and with it the hope for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict. As noted above, any sign that doubts about further escalation exist, the market interprets that as negative for the safe-haven dollar.

Thus, despite the grim news flow and belligerent statements by the parties, EUR/USD traders remain in limbo.

On the one hand, Tehran declares dialogue impossible until the maritime blockade lifts. On the other hand, the arrival of the US delegation (sent at Donald Trump's instruction, incidentally) keeps markets from full-scale panic. The incident with the Iranian vessel did not trigger a surge of risk-off sentiment.

For this reason, traders avoid opening large positions, since the talks' outcome (if they take place at all) may prove either a breakthrough—extension of the truce or even a framework agreement to end the war—or catastrophic—resumption of hostilities and withdrawal from the negotiating process. In conditions of such uncertainty, any trading decision, unfortunately, looks equally risky because the scales can tip toward either de-escalation or further escalation.

All of this suggests that a wait-and-see stance remains appropriate for EUR/USD. At present we observe, figuratively speaking, a calm before the storm. However, we cannot predict in which direction the "winds of volatility" will blow. Therefore, under current conditions it is preferable to stay out of the market.

see also: InstaForex trading indicators for USD/CAD

After a dramatic fall to three-week lows on Friday, the Canadian dollar tried to recover, but the geopolitical pendulum swung back; Iran's statements about re-closing the Strait of Hormuz and refusing talks pushed oil prices higher again and revived demand for the US dollar as a safe haven. In the first hours of the European session on Monday the USD/CAD pair corrected to the area of 1.3690, and market participants watching the Canadian dollar now focus on key Canadian inflation data (CPI) for March, which will determine Bank of Canada (BoC) policy.

Fundamental background: truce proved fragile

The optimism that prevailed late last week after Iran announced the opening of the Strait evaporated within hours.

Key weekend events:

- Seizure of a US vessel. US naval forces intercepted and seized a cargo ship under the Iranian flag in the Gulf of Oman as part of the blockade; Iran regarded this as a violation of the ceasefire.

- Re-closure of the strait. Iran reimposed military control over the strait, declaring it blocked again for commercial vessels.

- Breakdown of talks. Tehran officially declined to participate in a second round of talks in Islamabad, saying there are "no obvious prospects for productive negotiations while the blockade continues.

US President Donald Trump, for his part, confirmed that the maritime blockade of Iranian ports and coastline will remain in place until the terms of a peace agreement are fully met. This escalation occurred just hours after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the opening of the critical waterway.

Market reaction proved immediate and mixed:

- WTI oil jumped nearly 6%, returning to about $89 a barrel as it retraced most of Friday's losses.

- The US dollar index, USDX, strengthened back above 98.00 amid renewed risk aversion.

That combination created a paradox for USD/CAD: on one hand, higher oil prices traditionally support the Canadian loonie; on the other hand, rising geopolitical tension boosts demand for the US dollar as a haven, pushing the pair higher.

Monetary background: Canadian inflation in spotlight

Today, Statistics Canada will release key consumer price index (CPI) data for March. This is the first official statistic data to fully reflect the energy shock caused by the Middle East crisis.

Forecasts for March:

Rising gasoline prices, driven by the blockade of the strait, will be the main engine of faster inflation; economists even expect a larger jump — up to 2.8% year on year.

Those figures put the Bank of Canada in an extremely difficult position: on one side inflation clearly exceeds the 2% target; on the other side the economy shows signs of stagflation. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem on Friday already outlined the bank's stance: the central bank will watch medium- and long-term inflation expectations closely, rather than react to a short-term energy-driven spike.

Key Macklem takeaways:

- We do not want to act too quickly and raise rates, especially when growth is already weak.

- But we also do not want to be late and allow inflation to become entrenched.

- If businesses and households do not believe inflation will return to 2% in the medium term, that is what would really worry us.

Market expectations shifted sharply. The probability of a BoC rate hike in October now stands at roughly 60%, well below last week's levels; that reflects higher stagflation risks and market doubts that the BoC will tighten amid weak growth.

Brief technical analysis

From a technical standpoint USD/CAD still preserves a long-term bullish trend, trading above the key support at 1.3640 (EMA200 on the weekly chart); however, in the short- and medium-term the pair moved into a bear market zone.

On the daily chart stochastic moves in oversold territory, confirming a strong bearish impulse while already showing initial reversal signals; OsMA drew another histogram bar in the sell zone, but it shows rising character; the relative strength index (RSI) sits around 38–39, indicating continued downward pressure but proximity to oversold conditions that limit further downside. On the 4-hour chart, the pair formed a hammer reversal candlestick pattern, which may foreshadow a corrective bounce. Key resistance remains the 1.3700–1.3735 zone (144-week EMA), and a clear break above it is necessary to signal a shift from the downtrend.

Key events

Conclusion

USD/CAD stands at the epicenter of three powerful forces: renewed geopolitical escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, an oil price rally and rising stagflation risks in Canada. The pair has become range-bound as the dollar strengthens as a defensive asset while the loonie receives support from high commodity prices. Today's Canadian inflation reading will become the decisive catalyst. If CPI meets expectations (around 2.5% y/y), markets will likely increase bets on a BoC pause and that outcome could weaken the loonie, pushing USD/CAD higher. If inflation disappoints (comes in lower), the BoC will gain room to maintain accommodative policy, which could support the Canadian currency.

Investors should closely monitor diplomatic developments and CPI figures — these two factors will define the pair's trajectory amid a highly contradictory fundamental backdrop.

The sell-off caused by the escalation demonstrates that, despite diversification, cryptocurrencies still face systemic risks tied to global stability, yet the fresh capital inflow signals strong investor confidence in crypto's long-term potential despite short-term volatility. Institutional investors actively putting money into regulated products clearly show faith in the future of digital assets and treat them as a strategic part of portfolios.

This trend underscores growing trust in the crypto industry and its ability to weather market storms.

The total weekly flow reached the highest level since January and exceeded the prior week's $1.1 billion, which illustrates how quickly sentiment shifted after the recent downturn; the observed pattern reflects a stronger risk appetite linked to talks about extending the truce between the US and Iran.

Currently, assets under management at these firms stand at $154.8 billion, and inflows for the week amounted to 0.9% of total AUM, the largest weekly figure this year. Year-to-date inflows have reached $2.3 billion.

I should remind you that, as we discussed this morning, investors showed striking confidence last week by putting roughly $1 billion into spot ETFs.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers now target a return to $75 000, which opens a direct road to $76 500, and from there $78 400 sits within reach; the most distant target stands at the high near $80 100, and a break of that level would signal attempts to restore the bull market. In case of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at $73 100; a drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71 400, and the furthest downside target would be the $69 800 area.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above $2 308 opens a direct road to $2 382, and the most distant target stands at the high near $2 475, a breach of which would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of an Ether decline, I expect buyers at $2 244; a return of the instrument below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2 162, and the furthest downside target would be the $2 114 area.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

One of the key stated reasons for the refusal were the excessive and unrealistic demands put forward by the American side. The Iranian delegation believes that the proposed conditions exceed reasonable bounds and ignore the country's interests and sovereignty, making compromise effectively impossible, and such demands usually indicate a desire by one side for complete domination rather than a mutually equitable settlement.

Also, Washington's contradictory stance played an important role. Iranian representatives note inconsistency between US rhetoric and actions, which undermines trust in the negotiation process, and when one hand offers dialogue while the other keeps applying pressure or issuing ultimatums, achieving a constructive result becomes extremely difficult.

Finally, the continuing maritime blockade became a significant obstacle. Iran views these actions as a direct violation of previously reached agreements and as a form of pressure incompatible with the spirit of peace talks, and, in Tehran's opinion, the blockade of shipping lanes and sea corridors is a provocation that undermines the very basis for dialogue, rendering it pointless at this stage.

Risk assets, including the euro and the British pound, reacted to these developments with corresponding declines.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1765 level; only that will allow them to target a test of 1.1790, and from there they can push to 1.1830, although doing so without support from major players will prove rather difficult; the most distant target will be the high at 1.1850. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1730; if no one appears there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1700 or to open long positions from 1.1680.

Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3515. Only that will allow a target of 1.3550, above which a breakout will be rather problematic. The most distant target will be the 1.3585 area. In the event of a drop, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3475; if they succeed, a range breakout will deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD down to 1.3450 with a prospect of reaching 1.3415.

The test of the 158.89 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the dollar. However, the pair did not develop a significant decline in the dollar.

It appears that traders do not believe in a complete breakdown of dialogue between Iran and the United States, preferring instead to bet on the rise of risk assets. Despite occasional sharp or defensive statements, the overall market atmosphere suggests that most participants believe diplomatic efforts will prevail. This cautious optimism is reflected in the connection between geopolitical developments and market fluctuations. Signs of progress, or even hints of the possibility of dialogue, would likely trigger a positive market reaction, resulting in buying of the Japanese yen. Conversely, concerns about negotiations breaking down lead to some nervousness and a rise in USD/JPY. Given that there is no U.S. economic data in the second half of the day, all attention will remain focused on developments in the Middle East. Actions and statements from U.S. and Iranian officials regarding a peace agreement will be decisive.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 158.98 (green line on the chart) with a target of 159.34 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.34, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move back from the level). A rise in the pair today may occur if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.83 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 158.98 and 159.34 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 158.83 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers is 158.56, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may return today if there is a push for compromise.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.98 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 158.83 and 158.56 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.3502 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points.

It is clear that traders do not believe in a complete breakdown of Iran–U.S. peace negotiations and continue to position for a rise in the pound, buying it after the morning gap. Despite occasional statements that are rather firm or defensive in tone, overall market sentiment suggests that the majority of participants expect diplomacy to ultimately prevail.

Since there is no U.S. economic data in the second half of the day, all attention will be focused on developments in the Middle East. The lack of U.S. macroeconomic releases means that market movements will be driven entirely by news flow, and in this case—by developments in the Middle East situation. The key factor will be the actions and rhetoric of U.S. and Iranian officials regarding a peaceful resolution. Any new signals—whether hints of a diplomatic breakthrough, an escalation in confrontational rhetoric, or tangible steps—could lead to significant market volatility.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3532 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3555 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3555, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move back from the level). A rise in the pound today can be expected within the bullish trend.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3510 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.3532 and 1.3555 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3510 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main downward target is 1.3478, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pound may return today if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3532 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3510 and 1.3478 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1764 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair did not develop a strong upward move.

The U.S. trading session will take place without any economic data releases, shifting the focus to fresh comments from officials in the United States and Iran regarding a peaceful resolution. Recently, traders have been closely monitoring geopolitical developments, as any change in the negotiation process could have significant consequences. The recent trend toward stabilization, as noted earlier, appears to be a fragile balance that could easily be disrupted by careless statements or actions. New comments are expected to clarify the current state of negotiations and assess possible compromises. Of particular interest are signals suggesting either a resumption of dialogue or, conversely, a deepening of disagreements on key issues—from uranium enrichment to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1786 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1813. At 1.1813, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A rise in the euro today can be expected only if there is positive news on negotiations.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1763 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1786 and 1.1813 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1763 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1733, where I intend to exit the market and open a buy position in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return today if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1786 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1763 and 1.1733 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Inflows into Bitcoin-focused ETFs for the week to April 17 totaled $332 million. Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, continue to follow competitors by launching crypto-specialized ETFs. Michael Saylor's Strategy, a pioneer of crypto treasuries, bought about $2.6 billion of tokens in the last two weeks alone; its shares jumped some 16% over the same period.

It looks as if demand for Bitcoin is not lacking. However, miners — worried about rising power costs and shrinking margins — are selling crypto to diversify their businesses. AI technologies and their data centers are proving more efficient than crypto mining. CoinShares estimates that by December, those activities will account for 70% of miners' business, up from 30% today.

When demand rises while supply also increases, speculators may decide BTC/USD's fate. Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetuals have been negative for 46 consecutive days — meaning market participants are clinging to shorts, betting on a decline. If price continues to rise, a so?called short squeeze could occur: the spring snaps and fires. Short sellers will sooner or later have to realize losses and cover, which would fuel a rapid crypto rally.

There is a second scenario: speculators win and Bitcoin plunges. That would happen if markets swing from greed to fear amid an escalation in the Middle East. Donald Trump has threatened to bomb every power plant and bridge if Iran refuses a deal. Seven weeks of war have brought no resolution. Demand for the US dollar as a safe haven would rise, and BTC/USD would follow stocks down.

If Washington and Tehran find common ground, improved global risk appetite will support risk assets — and crypto would likely benefit as well.

Technically, on the daily chart, BTC/USD has bounced off dynamic support given by the moving average. A return above 76,000 would justify adding to existing longs. Conversely, a drop below 73,600 would be a reason to consider selling.

The wave structure on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke through six previous peaks, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the most recent low. A two-week truce between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend is currently bullish. In the near term, geopolitical tensions may escalate again, giving strength and confidence to the bears. However, breaking the bullish trend would require two downward waves or a breakout below the April 6 low.

There were few major global events on Friday, but late in the day, Donald Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Tehran, resulting in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Unfortunately, by Saturday, Iran closed the strait again, as the U.S. had not lifted its blockade of Iranian ports. Tensions began to rise again after Iranian armed forces shelled several vessels attempting to pass through the strait. Tehran stated that Washington had violated the terms of the reopening, and the blockade would resume until U.S. ships stop blocking Iranian vessels and other commercial ships entering Iranian ports. A new round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington is scheduled for today, but the situation remains quite tense. Yesterday, Donald Trump stated that the war with Iran would resume if a peace agreement is not signed soon. Tehran continues to refuse exporting enriched uranium outside the country, so the second round of negotiations may also fail. After two weeks of truce, the situation in the Middle East has not significantly improved. Oil started the week with a slight decline, but renewed hostilities or failed negotiations could trigger another price increase.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1849, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and consolidated below the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1778. Thus, the decline may continue toward the next retracement level of 61.8% at 1.1706. A move above 1.1778 would allow bulls to launch a new attack targeting 1.1849. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 13,693 long positions and closed 19,866 short positions. Over the past seven weeks, the bulls' overall advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 214,000, while short positions amount to 188,000. Two months ago, bulls had more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war has only been paused, not ended. Therefore, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, and more on developments related to the conflict with Iran. The dollar can still benefit from this situation.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On April 20, the economic calendar contains no significant events. Therefore, the news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling opportunities were available upon a rebound from the 1.1824 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1745. This target has been reached. New selling opportunities may arise upon a close below 1.1745, targeting 1.1666. Buying positions are recommended upon a rebound from 1.1745 with a target of 1.1824.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.2082 to 1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the psychological level of $4800. The U.S. dollar appears to have paused its recovery after hitting recent lows last Friday.

This factor is providing notable support for the commodity. However, rising oil prices are increasing concerns about inflationary pressure and contributing to a moderate rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which could limit any significant upside in the precious metal.

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz is reducing hopes for new peace talks before the current truce expires on April 22. U.S. naval forces seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman as part of an ongoing blockade, which Tehran views as a violation of prior agreements. In response, Iran has once again closed the strategically important waterway, which had previously been temporarily reopened after a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah last Friday.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue until a peace agreement between the two countries is signed.

The White House confirmed that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance will lead a new delegation for a second round of talks aimed at preventing war with Iran. Iranian state media report that officials will not participate in negotiations as long as the U.S. blockade remains in place, reducing the likelihood of reaching a peace agreement before the current truce ends on April 22. This could also trigger a new wave of global risk-off trading and strengthen the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Nevertheless, supporters of further dollar strength remain cautious about opening new positions amid declining expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Instead of a sharp increase, the CME Group's FedWatch indicator shows roughly a 40% probability of a Fed rate cut by the end of the year. This is limiting significant dollar appreciation and supporting prices for the precious metal.

In the absence of strong buying activity in gold, caution is advised when opening positions, while waiting for a resumption of the recent upward trend that began from the March low.

At present, no major U.S. economic data releases are expected, leaving both the dollar and gold dependent on developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict.

From a technical perspective, gold is trading within a familiar range, with oscillators still mixed, indicating no clear directional bias. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index, while near neutral, remains in positive territory, confirming that bullish sentiment still dominates the market.

Donald Trump and Iranian officials offered conflicting statements about the next phase of the conflict, creating uncertainty over whether peace talks between the two sides will take place as the ceasefire agreement is due to expire in the coming days. The leaders' differing declarations underline deep disagreements and complicate efforts to establish constructive dialogue. Markets, sensitive to geopolitical instability, read these events as a sign of potential escalation, prompting a sharp capital outflow from risk assets.

The drops in the euro and the pound, along with other risk-sensitive currencies, are a direct consequence of heightened concern. Traders are shifting funds into safer havens such as the US dollar and gold, while awaiting further developments. The expiration of the ceasefire without signs of its extension or a new compromise only adds to the nervousness and sets the stage for further pressure on risky assets.

Trump, who on Friday said a deal with Iran was nearly agreed, on Sunday threatened to destroy all power plants and bridges in Iran if talks fail. Iranians deny making concessions on a number of points the US president said are part of the plan, including ending their nuclear program and handing over stocks of enriched uranium to the United States.

Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has now come to a complete halt, and coupled with uncertainty over US?Iran diplomacy, this is weighing on financial markets. It also remains unclear whether Iranian and US officials will meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, before the fragile 14?day ceasefire expires on Tuesday. Vice President J.D. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son?in?law Jared Kushner are due to fly to Islamabad Monday evening for talks on Tuesday.

Trump recently said he sees a chance for a deal, but the Iranians have denied that, stating there are no clear prospects for an agreement. Iran also denies participating in talks with the US in Islamabad.

Weekend events have demonstrated the unpredictable nature of the war and the diplomatic efforts to end it. Israel continues operations in Lebanon despite last week's announced ceasefire, adding further pressure on risk assets.

EUR/USD

Buyers should be thinking about taking the 1.1765 level. Only then can they target a test of 1.1790. From there, a move to 1.1830 is possible, though doing so without support from large players would be difficult. The further target is 1.1850. On a decline, I expect serious buying interest only around 1.1730. If no one shows up there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1700 or to open long positions from 1.1680.

GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3515. Only that will open a path to 1.3550, above which a breakout will be difficult. The farther target is the 1.3585 area. On a drop, bears will try to seize control at 1.3475. If they succeed, a break of the range would deliver a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD down toward 1.3450 with a prospect of reaching 1.3415.

At the same time, the leading cryptocurrency confirmed the positive sentiment by posting a fresh monthly high. Bitcoin reached an impressive $78,000, reflecting rising buying pressure and belief in further upside. This is an important psychological level, and breaking it could open the way to a new bull market.

The ETF inflows and the asset's price action point to several key trends. First, institutional investors who had been on the sidelines are re?entering the market. Their interest in Bitcoin ETFs indicates growing acceptance of the crypto as a legitimate asset class. Second, previously dominant negative sentiment is giving way to optimism. Investors likely see potential for further gains based on a mix of fundamental and technical factors.

Rising capital inflows into spot ETFs also help stabilize Bitcoin's price and reduce volatility, which in turn attracts more investors. This can create a positive feedback loop, pushing prices higher and fueling broader interest in the crypto market.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $75,000, which would open a direct path to $76,500 and then to $78,400. The farther target is the high near $80,100; a break above that would signal attempts to return to a bull market. On a pullback, expect buyers to step in at $73,100. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400, with a further target around $69,800.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,308 would open a direct path to $2,382. The farther target is the high near $2,475; a break above that would strengthen bullish sentiment and revive buyer interest. On the downside, expect buyers at $2,244. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,162, with a further target around $2,114.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Brent crude oil prices rose by 5.5% to $95.33 per barrel after the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel during a chaotic weekend, where Tehran fired upon ships and reasserted control over the Strait of Hormuz. It's worth noting that just last Friday, Iran announced that this vital shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, was fully open.

The rise in oil prices indicates a new wave of instability in the energy market. The seizure of the Iranian ship by the US Navy, along with the attacks on vessels and Iran's restoration of control over the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a sharp deterioration in sentiment among traders. This weakened the initial optimism sparked by Iran's statements about the full openness of the vital waterway made just a few days earlier.

The weekend events starkly contrast with earlier hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The heightened tensions between the US and Iran create uncertainty for oil supplies, which directly impacts global prices. Traders, fearing further disruptions, prefer to hedge their positions by mass buying futures, thereby pushing prices upward.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transport corridor for global energy, through which a substantial portion of the world's maritime oil shipments pass. Iran's resumption of control and incidents like the seizure of the vessel effectively put the market on high alert.

Nevertheless, expectations for a diplomatic resolution keep investor sentiment on a positive note. The two-week ceasefire is set to expire this Tuesday, and all attention is on whether the US and Iran can resume negotiations to reduce tensions and reopen this key waterway after the failure of initial talks in Islamabad.

President Donald Trump and Iranian officials consistently express differing opinions regarding the next phase of the conflict, creating uncertainty about whether peace negotiations between the two sides will occur. Iran has indicated that it may not join the second round of talks this week while the US maintains a naval blockade, exacerbating the standoff. Trump, who stated on Friday that a deal with Iran was nearly reached, threatened on Sunday morning to destroy all power plants and bridges in Iran if negotiations fail.

Regarding the current technical landscape of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $92.54. This would allow targeting $100.40, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The furthest target will be $106.83. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control of $86.67. If successful, breaking through this range would deal a significant blow to the bulls, pushing oil down to a low of $81.38, with the prospect of reaching $74.85.

Gold prices fell by 1.9% before partially compensating for the losses. President Donald Trump stated that the US Navy fired upon and seized a cargo ship flying the Iranian flag, while Tehran warned that ships approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be considered violators of the ceasefire. This escalation of conflict seemingly should have pushed gold prices higher, but the market reacted otherwise, possibly reflecting a more complex picture of global economic factors and expectations of further developments.

Several vessels were forced to abandon their passage just hours after the Islamic Republic announced the opening of this key waterway on Friday.

These incidents once again jeopardized prospects for peace negotiations in Islamabad before the fragile 14-day ceasefire expires on Tuesday. Trump indicated that he saw a chance for a deal while simultaneously renewing threats to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges. Tehran stated that there were no clear prospects for productive negotiations. The inability to reach a durable diplomatic agreement to end the war, which has been ongoing for 8 weeks, will continue to drive significant market volatility.

The morning decline in gold prices reflects worsening risk sentiment following the weekend's geopolitical events. However, there are still positive expectations that both sides will return to the negotiating table.

Given how quickly gold was bought back, the latest pricing dynamics highlight a trend towards buying on dips rather than on rallies. Gold is expected to continue fluctuating between $4,700 and $4,900 per ounce.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,835. This will allow them to target $4,893, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $4,913 area. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control of $4,771. If this is achieved, breaking through this range could deal a serious blow to the bulls and push gold down to a low of $4,708, with the prospect of reaching $4,647.

The wave situation remains "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave the bears almost full control of the market for two months, after which the geopolitical backdrop supported the bulls for two weeks. At present, tensions in the Middle East risk escalating again, which makes bears feel more confident. However, the geopolitical vector can change at any moment. Overall, bulls still dominate the market.

The news background on Friday triggered market reactions only in the second half of the day. After the U.S. session began, Donald Trump announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the next day Iran declared its closure. Thus, the truce between the United States and Iran remains in effect, but this has not made things easier for markets or traders. There is still a significant global shortage of energy resources, supporting high oil and gas prices. According to some insiders, negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are ongoing but very difficult. Neither side is willing to give way on key issues. Donald Trump is beginning to lose patience, and the two-week truce may end as early as Wednesday. According to some reports, the sides may extend it for another two weeks to gain more time for negotiations, but this information is unconfirmed. In general, very little confirmed information is coming in. Traders largely have to guess what is happening. Therefore, during the current week, traders will again closely monitor any developments in the Middle East, while economic data will only complement the overall picture.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above a descending trend channel, which allows expectations of a full-fledged trend. After the formation of a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3540. A rebound from the 1.3482 level would allow for a reversal in favor of the pound and renewed growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3664. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,603, while short positions rose by 5,973. The gap between long and short positions is now roughly 55,000 versus 110,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is not surprising given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full truce is still far away and that the conflict could resume at any moment. In that case, the bears' advantage could become even stronger.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

April 20 contains no scheduled economic events. Therefore, the impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3596 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3437. The first target has been reached, and positions can be kept open.

Buying opportunities may arise today after a rebound from the 1.3428–1.3437 level, with targets at 1.3513–1.3539 and 1.3596–1.3620.

Fibonacci retracement grids are built from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

Analysis:

In the short-term timeframe, the main pair of the British pound has been forming a downward wave since the end of January this year. In recent weeks, a correction has been developing within this structure. At present, quotes are approaching the lower boundary of a wide potential reversal zone on the daily timeframe.

Forecast:

Over the next couple of days, the British pound is expected to move along the resistance zone. After that, a reversal and the beginning of a bearish trend can be expected. When the direction changes, the possibility of a brief breakout above the upper boundary of resistance remains. The lower boundary of the expected weekly range is defined by the calculated support.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.3600 / 1.3650

Support:

• 1.3390 / 1.3340

Recommendations:

Buy: No conditions for such trades are expected in the coming week.Sell: Will become relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near the resistance zone.

AUD/USD

Analysis:

Since the end of January this year, the short-term trend of the Australian dollar's main pair has been driven by a bearish corrective wave in the form of an extended flat. At the end of last week, the price reached the lower boundary of a major potential reversal zone. There are currently no signs of an imminent trend reversal on the chart.

Forecast:

Over the coming week, a gradual movement of the "Aussie" from the resistance zone toward the support area is expected. A breakout beyond these boundaries within the week is unlikely. In the first days, a short-term rise toward resistance is possible, including pressure on its upper boundary and a brief breakout.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.7230 / 0.7280

Support:

• 0.7080 / 0.7030

Recommendations:

Buy: Possible with partial positions during individual sessions; potential is limited by resistance.Sell: Can be used after confirmed reversal signals appear near the calculated resistance.

USD/CHF

Analysis:

In the short term, the current wave of the Swiss franc since January is directed upward. This wave is completing a larger bullish structure on the daily timeframe. Over the past month, a correction has been developing within it. The boundary of a strong higher-timeframe reversal zone runs near the calculated support.

Forecast:

Over the coming week, the bearish movement is expected to complete. In the next couple of days, short-term pressure on the lower boundary of support is possible. After that, a reversal and upward movement can be expected. The highest volatility is likely toward the end of the week.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.7930 / 0.7980

Support:

• 0.7770 / 0.7720

Recommendations:

Sell: High risk and may result in losses.Buy: Will become relevant after confirmed signals appear near the support zone.

EUR/JPY

Analysis:

In the short-term timeframe, the euro/yen pair has been forming an upward wave since the end of January, defining the trend. Since mid-April, an unfinished intermediate pullback has been forming within this wave in a sideways pattern. Price is mostly moving sideways within the formed price corridor.

Forecast:

Over the next one to two days, a flat (sideways) movement is expected. An upward bias is possible, but growth is likely limited to the upper boundary of resistance. In the second half of the week, the probability increases for higher volatility, a reversal, and renewed price decline.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 187.50 / 188.00

Support:

• 185.40 / 184.90

Recommendations:

Buy: Risky and with low potential.Sell: Can be used after appropriate signals appear near the reversal zone.

AUD/JPY

Analysis:

Since last spring, the main direction of the Australian dollar/yen pair has been bullish. The structure does not yet appear complete. At the time of analysis, price has bounced from the upper boundary of a major reversal zone, forming the beginning of the final segment (C).

Forecast:

At the beginning of the week, a renewed decline toward the support zone is possible, including a brief breakout below it. Closer to the weekend, the probability increases for a reversal and renewed upward movement.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 115.60 / 116.10

Support:

• 112.50 / 112.00

Recommendations:

Sell: Possible in smaller positions during intraday trading; potential is limited.Buy: Will become relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near support.

EUR/GBP

Analysis:

The unfinished wave structure of the dominant downward trend in the euro/pound pair has been developing since April last year. The wave takes the form of a shifting flat and remains incomplete. The final segment (C) is still missing. Price is currently near the lower boundary of a weekly potential reversal zone.

Forecast:

At the beginning of the week, sideways movement is highly likely. After that, a downward move toward the support boundary is expected. By the end of the week, the probability increases for a reversal and upward movement toward resistance.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.8800 / 0.8850

Support:

• 0.8630 / 0.8680

Recommendations:

Sell: Possible in individual sessions with reduced position size; potential is limited by support.Buy: Premature until confirmed reversal signals appear in the calculated reversal zone.

Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A–B–C). The latest unfinished wave is analyzed on each timeframe. Dotted lines indicate expected movements.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not account for the duration of price movements over time.

Analysis:

Since April last year, the euro's quotes in its main pair have been forming a downward wave. Within this wave, the final segment (C) is developing, inside which an intermediate correction is forming. The pair is currently near the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone.

Forecast:

In the coming days, a generally sideways movement is expected for the euro. After a likely rise and rebound from the resistance zone, a reversal and the beginning of a decline in the pair are expected. When the direction changes, a brief breakout above the upper boundary of the zone cannot be ruled out. Increased volatility can be expected closer to the weekend.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.1840 / 1.1890

Support:

• 1.1650 / 1.1600

Recommendations:

Buy: No suitable conditions for buying at the moment.Sell: May become the main trading direction after confirmed signals appear near the resistance zone.

USD/JPY

Analysis:

Since the end of January this year, the Japanese yen has been strengthening against the US dollar. The latest unfinished corrective segment on the chart has been developing since March 30. The pair is moving along the lower boundary of a cluster of reversal levels of different scales.

Forecast:

Over the coming week, continued sideways movement is expected. In the near term, a downward movement is more likely, with price declining toward the support zone. Toward the end of the week, price growth may begin. The upper boundary of the weekly range is defined by the calculated resistance zone.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 159.90 / 160.40

Support:

• 157.80 / 157.30

Recommendations:

Buy: Relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.Sell: Possible within individual sessions with reduced volume; potential is limited by support.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

Since February, the short-term direction of the British pound/Japanese yen pair has been defined by an upward wave. Last week, the price rebounded from a major resistance level and began forming an intermediate correction along it. As of the analysis, this structure (from April 12) is not yet complete.

Forecast:

In the first half of the week, a short-term decline is possible, potentially reaching support levels. This should be followed by a reversal and a change in direction. Increased activity and renewed growth are expected toward the end of the week.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 215.50 / 216.00

Support:

• 213.50 / 213.00

Recommendations:

Sell: Risky, with low potential.Buy: Can be considered after confirmed signals appear near the support zone.

USD/CAD

Analysis:

Since late January, an upward zigzag wave has been forming on the chart of the Canadian dollar's main pair. Within the still-unfinished correction segment (B), an intermediate pullback has been forming over the past two weeks. The support zone lies at the upper boundary of a broad potential weekly reversal area.

Forecast:

Over the coming week, the downward movement is expected to complete within a price corridor between nearby opposing zones. A downward bias is more likely in the early days. By the end of the week, a reversal and upward movement may begin.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.3790 / 1.3840

Support:

• 1.3650 / 1.3600

Recommendations:

Sell: Limited potential and may lead to losses.Buy: Relevant after confirmed signals appear near the reversal zone.

NZD/USD

Analysis:

Since last spring, the main trend in the New Zealand dollar pair has been driven by an upward wave. Since the end of January, a counter wave structure has been developing, which remains unfinished. The middle segment (B) is nearing completion. The price has reached the lower boundary of a strong higher-timeframe reversal zone.

Forecast:

At the beginning of the week, an upward movement is expected. Pressure on the resistance zone is possible, including a brief breakout above it. Afterward, a reversal and downward movement are likely.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.5940 / 0.5990

Support:

• 0.5800 / 0.5750

Recommendations:

Buy: Low potential and may result in losses.Sell: Relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near resistance.

Gold

The bullish wave that began in late March on the larger timeframe is completing an irregular shifting correction. After breaking a minor resistance level, gold has moved into a drifting phase around the 48th price figure. The calculated resistance lies along the lower boundary of a strong daily reversal zone.

Forecast:

At the start of the week, sideways movement is expected along the support zone, with possible pressure on its lower boundary. In the second half of the week, a reversal and renewed upward movement are likely. The upper boundary of the expected weekly range is defined by the resistance level.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 4980.0 / 5000.0

Support:

• 4800.0 / 4780.0

Recommendations:

Sell: Low potential and may be risky.Buy: Premature until clear reversal signals appear.

Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A–B–C). The most recent unfinished wave is analyzed on each timeframe. Dotted lines indicate expected movements.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not account for the duration of price movements over time.

Last Friday, Bitcoin reached an impressive high of $78,000. This surge was largely triggered by positive news from the Middle East: reports that Iran would keep the Strait of Hormuz open until the ceasefire agreement expires effectively alleviated significant concerns about global security and energy supply. Traders, relieved by the easing of geopolitical tensions, actively invested in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, which led to Bitcoin's rise.

However, market sentiment proved to be extremely volatile. Just today, only a few days after, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, falling to $74,000. This drop occurred amid a new wave of escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf. Reports of the US Navy seizing an Iranian trading vessel passing through this strategically important waterway instantly shifted investor sentiment.

This incident again highlighted the fragility of peace in the Middle East and the potential risks to global trade and energy supplies. The market's response was as quick as it was on Friday—but in the opposite direction. Traders were gripped by a wave of concerns, prompting them to shed risk assets, including Bitcoin. The market situation will depend entirely on developments in the Middle East.

Regarding the intraday strategy on the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the long term, which has not yet disappeared.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $75,000, targeting a move to $75,600. Around $75,600, I will exit the purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can also be bought at the lower boundary of $74,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $75,000 and $75,800.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $74,500, targeting a decline to $73,400. Around $73,400, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can be sold at the upper boundary of $75,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $74,500 and $73,400.

Ethereum

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $2,295, targeting a move to $2,329. Around $2,329, I will exit the purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can also be bought at the lower boundary of $2,276 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,295 and $2,329.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $2,276, targeting a decline to $2,245. Around $2,245, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can be sold at the upper boundary of $2,295 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,276 and $2,245.