IWMI Journal Articles

Anthropogenic Drivers and Their Impact on the Hydrological Regime of Nepal: A Review

2026-05-01T08:41:24Z

dc.title: Anthropogenic Drivers and Their Impact on the Hydrological Regime of Nepal: A Review dc.contributor.author: Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara; Singh, Kunwar K.; Fabrizio, Mary C.; Nepal, Santosh dcterms.abstract: Nepal’s hydrological regime, shaped by steep topography, monsoon-dominated rainfall, and extensive cryospheric systems, offers a useful testbed for understanding how climate change and human activities are reshaping water resources in mountain regions globally. Despite abundant water sources, Nepal faces persistent water security challenges driven by extreme seasonality, rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and rapid land-use change. In this review, we synthesize current evidence on anthropogenic drivers of hydrological change in Nepal and draw lessons relevant to other data-sparse, high-mountain and monsoon-influenced regions. We find that warming-induced glacial retreat, altered snowmelt timing, and changing monsoon dynamics are intensifying wet-season flood risks while heightening dry-season water scarcity, patterns increasingly observed across the Himalaya, Andes, and other mountain systems. Human activities, including urban expansion, agricultural intensification, hydropower, and extraction of sediments from rivers, further modify river flows, reduce groundwater recharge, and increase vulnerability to extremes. Yet major uncertainties persist, especially concerning high-elevation hydrology, permafrost dynamics, sediment extraction, and the cumulative impacts of expanding infrastructure. Nepal’s pronounced topographic and climatic gradients limit broad generalizations, underscoring the need for region-specific hydrological monitoring and modeling. These challenges mirror global limitations in mountain hydrology, where sparse observations and rapidly changing conditions constrain predictive capacity. By identifying key knowledge gaps and highlighting cascading impacts on agriculture, hydropower, domestic water supply, and aquatic ecosystems, this review emphasizes the urgency of strengthening monitoring networks and integrating uncertainty into water management and climate adaptation strategies. Nepal’s experience offers broader insights for countries facing similar pressures at the intersection of climate change, development, and fragile mountain water systems. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Solar Irrigation and Just Energy Transitions in Agriculture: Insights from Evaluation of Gujarat’s SKY Program

2026-04-30T04:53:29Z

dc.title: Solar Irrigation and Just Energy Transitions in Agriculture: Insights from Evaluation of Gujarat’s SKY Program dc.contributor.author: Varshney, Deepak; Mukherji, Aditi; Sharma, Kriti; Banerjee, Anurag; Sikka, Alok dcterms.abstract: Set against the backdrop of reducing agricultural emissions, improving smallholder livelihoods, and promoting sustainable groundwater use, this paper evaluates the Surya Shakti Kisan Yojana (SKY)—the world's first largescale grid-connected solar irrigation pump (SIP) scheme, launched in Gujarat, India in 2018. Using real-time monitoring data from 4321 farmers and a primary survey of 2435 farmers, the study addresses three core objectives. First, it examines the determinants of SKY participation and evaluates the scheme's technical performance, financial features, and income effects. Our findings reveal that financial constraints and risk aversion among smallholder farmers hinder scheme adoption. Farmers earn up to ₹ 21,917 (~USD 257) annually from electricity sales—43 % of their crop income—even after repaying an annual loan of ₹ 105,000 (~USD 1235). The simulation suggests that extending the loan repayment period from 7 to 10 years could nearly double farmers' income from energy sales. Second, the study assesses SKY's impact on energy use for groundwater extraction. During the Rabi (dry) season, SKY-enrolled farmers show significantly slower growth in energy consumption than non-enrolled farmers, indicating more sustainable water use. No such difference is observed in the Kharif (monsoon) season. Third, it estimates SKY's climate mitigation potential. Each participant offsets about 12.34 metric tons of CO2 annually—over twice the impact of off-grid systems—yielding 53,308 metric tons of CO2 abatement across 4321 farmers. These findings demonstrates grid-connected SIP as a scalable, climate-aligned model for energy transitions in the Global South, offering practical insights for integrated energy-water-livelihood strategies.

Satellite Remote Sensing for Estimating Reservoir Physical Characteristics: A Global Review of Existing Methodologies for Operational Monitoring

2026-04-28T03:46:33Z

dc.title: Satellite Remote Sensing for Estimating Reservoir Physical Characteristics: A Global Review of Existing Methodologies for Operational Monitoring dc.contributor.author: Codjia, Audrey Kantz Dossou; Akpoti, Komlavi; Dembélé, Moctar; Yonaba, Roland; Fowe, Tazen; Orowale, Triumph Prosper; Koissi, Modeste G. Déo-Gratias; Zwart, Sander J. dcterms.abstract: Accurate and timely estimates of reservoir surface area, water level, and volume are essential for water resource management. Yet no recent synthesis compares the remote sensing methods used to obtain these physical characteristics. This study evaluates peer-reviewed studies from 2000 to 2025 that derived any of the three characteristics from satellite data to identify reliable techniques and operational gaps. A total of 169 cases of surface area mapping (88), water level retrieval (49), and volume estimation (32) were analyzed from 106 articles across more than 60 countries. Each case was classified according to its physical characteristics, approach, sensor, and validation method. Surface area is typically mapped using optical imagery (76 %). Threshold indices dominate at 63 %. Meanwhile, machine and deep learning methods are being used more frequently to provide more accurate classifications. Water levels are usually obtained from radar altimetry (67 %) followed by areaelevation models (30 %). Volume is most often computed using combined area-elevation approaches (60 %), followed by water level-volume regressions (25 %) and area-volume curves (15 %), with average errors of up to 10 %. Three critical gaps emerge: only 11 % of studies address reservoirs smaller than 1 km2 , turbid or vegetated waters incur estimation errors, and only a few studies use sensors with a revisit time of three days or less, which limits real-time management. Although fusion of several sensor data is demonstrably more accurate, it remains rare. These insights guide managers and future research directions to enable automated, high-resolution monitoring of both large and small reservoirs.

Unpacking the Challenges of Solar Lift Irrigation in Nepal’s Mid-Hills: Toward a Sustainable Energy-Water Solution

2026-04-23T13:30:39Z

dc.title: Unpacking the Challenges of Solar Lift Irrigation in Nepal’s Mid-Hills: Toward a Sustainable Energy-Water Solution dc.contributor.author: Shrestha, Shisher; Karki, Darshan; Aryal, Mamata; Buchy, Marlene dcterms.abstract: Solar Lift Irrigation (SLI) presents a promising water-energy-food nexus solution, especially in off-grid, low-income countries with mountainous terrain. Yet adoption and scaling remain limited. This study examines barriers to the clean energy adoption for irrigation and identifies Critical Success Factors (CSFs) influencing SLI sustainability. The study draws on qualitative evidence from thirteen SLI projects across eight districts in Nepal, based on primary data collected through nine group discussions and nineteen semi-structured interviews with multiple stakeholder groups. The analysis identifies seven interdependent CSFs: detailed feasibility study, cost of technology, farm income, transparency, synergies, ownership, and operation and management (O&M) plan. We find that the successful adoption of technological innovations like SLI depends on a host of interrelated factors that cannot be addressed in isolation. Yet our study reveals that SLI projects often prioritize techno-financial dimensions while governance and social dimensions are neglected. For long-term sustainability, it is imperative to understand and balance all dimensions of the project, fostering an enabling environment that supports technological adoption. Addressing the interlinkages among these CSFs can strengthen SLI sustainability through an integrated approach linking energy and water access with rural livelihood. The findings highlight three policy priorities: formalizing inter-governmental coordination, establishing dedicated post-installation maintenance funding, and integrating SLI projects with agricultural value chains. These insights are relevant for similar off-grid contexts across the Global South. cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Climate Action; Policy Innovations

Validating the Efficiency of the AquaCrop Model Under Full and Deficit Irrigation Regimes to Simulate Future Climate Impacts on Wheat Crop

2026-04-22T13:32:30Z

dc.title: Validating the Efficiency of the AquaCrop Model Under Full and Deficit Irrigation Regimes to Simulate Future Climate Impacts on Wheat Crop dc.contributor.author: Memon, Shamim Ara; Shaikh, Irfan Ahmed; Talpur, Mashooque Ali; Junejo, Abdul Rahim; Mangrio, Munir Ahmed; Gul, Nazar; Khan, Zaheer Ahmed; Salam, Hafiz Abdul; Ashraf, Muhammad dcterms.abstract: Wheat yield and water demand are affected by the ongoing disturbance of climatic factors and greenhouse gases (GHG). As a result, the AquaCrop model's ability to anticipate climate change impacts on wheat harvests under full and deficit irrigation regimes in Sindh, Pakistan, was evaluated using wheat trials conducted between 2018 and 2020. However, for its validation, the results of the deficit irrigation treatment ITS50 (50% controlled irrigation at the tillering stage) for both seasons were employed. The model efficiently estimated yield with a normalised root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of 13% and 17%, a Willmott's d-index of 98% and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NME) of 95% under full and deficit irrigation treatments, respectively. The simulation results revealed an adverse effect of climate change on the yield and water productivity of wheat. Over the century, the model predicted an increase of 6% to 7% in wheat yield under full (well-watered) irrigation and a decrease of 10 to 12% in 25% reduced water applied depth (RAD) and 21% to 24% under 50% RAD scenarios for both representative concentration pathway RCPs (4.5 and 8.5). The overall wheat water productivity increased under a well-watered irrigation regime by 16% in RCP8.5 compared with RCP4.5. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Low-Cost and Labour-Efficient Innovations in Household Recycling of Organic Wastes for Soil Improvement

2026-04-21T10:08:20Z

dc.title: Low-Cost and Labour-Efficient Innovations in Household Recycling of Organic Wastes for Soil Improvement dc.contributor.author: Smith, Jo; Naher, Umme Aminun; Dahal, Khem Raj; Hasan, Md Mahmodol; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Smith, Pete; Bhusal, Mukunda; Wardle, Jennifer; Bittner, Dominik; Chukwu, Vince; Adhya, Tapan; Adhikari, Raj Kumar; Akter, Masuda; Campbell, Grant A.; Gaihre, Yam Kanta; Hossain, A. T. M. Sakhawat; Islam, Md Nurul; Khan, Mehedi Hasan; Maharjan, Salu; Mekuria, Wolde; Mia, Ripon; Moges, Awdenegest; Nalavade, Rujuta; Namaswa, Timothy; Panhwar, Qurban Ali; Tumwesige, Vianney; Vista, Shree Prasad; Yakob, Getahun; Zuan, Ali Tan Kee dcterms.abstract: Organic matter plays an important role in the health and productivity of soils, but its depletion is a common problem in households in low-income countries. This is due to lack of and competing uses for organic resources, and limited information on recycling methods. Therefore, here we review low-cost and labour-efficient innovations to improve recycling of organic wastes, stabilising residues so that soil organic matter can be increased with less inputs and enhancing nutrient content to produce a more effective organic fertiliser. Composting, anaerobic digestion and pyrolysis are all processes that stabilise organic matter. Innovations in treatments are needed to improve stabilization and control the release of nutrients so that they are available to crops in the right amounts and at the right time. This can be achieved by maintaining appropriate treatment conditions: for composting, carbon to nitrogen ratio 25–35, carbon to phosphorus ratio ∼50, pH 5.5–8.5 and 50%–60% moisture content; for anaerobic digestion, carbon to nitrogen ratio 20–35, bulk density 0.6–0.8 g cm−3, lignin content < 7.5%, pH 6.8–7.4 and moisture content 85%–95%; and for pyrolysis, carbon to nitrogen > 40 and moisture content < 20%. Different methods to achieve these ideal conditions are discussed, including appropriate choice of treatment method, co-composting/co-digestion for ideal nutrient content, enhancing nutrients using collected urine, nitrogen-fixing plants, bioslurry or by inoculating with bacterial communities, absorbing excess nutrients on biochar, adjusting pH using wood ash or biochar, pre-treatment to break down lignin and cellulose, and designs to achieve ideal moisture and temperature. Innovations should also ensure that treatment processes do not overuse or compete with other important household resources, such as finances, water or labour. We draw together findings to identify methods with most potential to improve soils in low-income countries, providing decision tables to guide selection of approaches for different contexts.

Many Partners, Big Numbers? Estimating the Reach of CGIAR – Supported Innovations in East and Southern Africa

2026-04-21T12:57:16Z

dc.title: Many Partners, Big Numbers? Estimating the Reach of CGIAR – Supported Innovations in East and Southern Africa dc.contributor.author: Ngoma, Hambulo; Mulungu, Kelvin; Manyanga, Mark; Simutowe, Esau; Mhlanga, Blessing; Hanke-Louw, Nora; Waswa, Boaz; Jacobs-Mata, Inga; Givertz, Evan; Thierfelder, Christian dcterms.abstract: As resource envelopes to fund research for development activities become tighter, demonstrating value for money is key. This is difficult for various reasons, chief among these being the failure to embed evaluation frameworks in project design. The multiplicity of scaling partners and their interests, and levels of involvement makes it even more complicated to ensure consistent monitoring and evaluation. We demonstrate how to estimate the reach in research for development projects using a population-based computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) survey methodology that is statistically representative at the desired administrative unit level. This approach was applied to the CGIAR Research Initiative – Diversification in East and Southern Africa (Ukama Ustawi) implemented with several scaling partners across 12 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa. The assessment focused on five of the 12 target countries covered in phase one of implementation. The goal of the assessment was to measure the extent of reach and use of agronomic, mechanization, livestock, and nutrition innovations promoted under Ukama Ustawi, and to assess the extent to which the Initiative reached its intended targets. The data comes from 6,445 randomly sampled rural individuals across 27 districts in the five countries. Approximately 1.05 million people were aware of Ukama Ustawi activities, with Kenya and Zambia showing the highest awareness at 16%. Overall, 164,363 people benefited from various innovations promoted by Ukama Ustawi as of September 2024, about 3 years from the beginning of the project. Of these, 135,767 people were direct beneficiaries in areas where specific interventions were implemented. The rest benefited from spillover effects. About 52% of the beneficiaries were female and 56% were youth aged 18–35 years. Innovation use was highest for minimum tillage and post-harvest mechanization in Zimbabwe, followed by agronomic and mechanization options in Malawi. The benefit-reach ratio was highest in Zimbabwe at 61%, followed by Malawi at 31%. This means that Ukama Ustawi activities were most effective at converting reach to beneficiaries in Zimbabwe and Malawi, partly because implementation was layered on past similar interventions. While our results are comparable to more traditional case studies, our survey approach is nearly fourfold cheaper, demonstrating cost-effectiveness and efficiency. We discuss project design and implementation issues necessary to facilitate this kind of evaluation in international development projects. cg.contributor.initiative: Diversification in East and Southern Africa cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Scaling for Impact

Food Security in a Time of Climate–Food–Water–Energy Convergence

2026-04-07T10:11:33Z

dc.title: Food Security in a Time of Climate–Food–Water–Energy Convergence dc.contributor.author: Falk, J.; Asari, M.; Bahar, F.; Behera, S.; von Braun, J.; Caquet, T.; Colwell, R.; Damania, R.; Ebi, K.; El-Beltagy, A. E. S. T.; Elouafi, Ismahane; Honma, M.; Iskanda, L.; Köhler, M.; Koundouri, P.; Lal, R.; Leinen, M.; Mulligan, C.; Nishikawa, H.; Pattberg, P.; Prabhakar, S.; Roopnarine, R.; Serageldin, I.; Smith, Mark; Takara, K.; Takeuchi, K.; Watanabe, C.; Zhang, Q.

Scenario-Based Land Management Options for the Highlands of Ethiopia: A Decision Support Tool to Implement Rural Land Use Plans

2026-04-06T05:40:03Z

dc.title: Scenario-Based Land Management Options for the Highlands of Ethiopia: A Decision Support Tool to Implement Rural Land Use Plans dc.contributor.author: Wondie, M.; Mekuria, Wolde; Amare, D.; Katzensteiner, K. dcterms.abstract: The implementation of locally acceptable land management practices is crucial to improving the livelihoods of local communities and reducing the degradation of ecosystem services. This is particularly important in mountain regions, where steep slopes, fragile soils, high erosion risk, and climate variability intensify land degradation and livelihood shocks, while also influencing downstream water regulation and sediment delivery. This study was conducted in Tara Gedam watershed, northwestern Ethiopia, to evaluate 4 ecosystem-service-based scenarios—business as usual (BAU), transition agriculture (TAG), intensified agriculture (INA), and optimized ecosystem services (OPE)—as land management options using the analytic hierarchy process method. A stakeholder workshop and group discussions with farmers, agricultural experts, and local decision-makers were conducted to set criteria for selecting the best management option. Livelihood benefits and environmental improvements were rated highest and are therefore the most influential factors in selecting land management options. These 2 criteria were responsible for the best performance of OPE and INA. INA and/or TAG were the options preferred by farmers because they provide livelihood benefits within a shorter time than OPE. Smallholder farmers should therefore be provided with financial and technical support to implement OPE. The results of this study will contribute to the knowledge base of agricultural experts to support future implementation of rural land use plans in the highlands and mountain regions of Ethiopia.

Contribution of the Use of Microbiologically Contaminated Water in Slaughterhouses to Food Safety Risks

2026-04-10T17:19:21Z

dc.title: Contribution of the Use of Microbiologically Contaminated Water in Slaughterhouses to Food Safety Risks dc.contributor.author: Alegbeleye, Oluwadara; Mateo-Sagasta, Javier dcterms.abstract: Food animals can become contaminated with enteric pathogens during slaughter, with potentially significant consequences for food and public health safety. This overview examines the scientific evidence implicating slaughterhouses as critical points for microbiological contamination of meat, with particular focus on the role of process water as a potential source and vehicle for foodborne pathogens. Despite the extensive use of water—e.g., for carcass washing, equipment cleaning, and general hygiene, there is a notable lack of empirical data on how waterborne pathogens may contribute to food safety risks. This gap highlights the need to better characterize the potential for process water to act as a reservoir and a vehicle for foodborne pathogens. To address this, this overview proposes a framework for tracing, characterizing, and quantifying the food safety risks associated with water used during slaughter. It emphasizes the importance of generating experimental data on the survival, persistence, and fate of water-origin pathogens on or within meat. The ability of a pathogen to persist throughout processing and storage significantly influences its impact as a foodborne hazard, as it increases the likelihood that it reaches consumers at infectious doses. Establishing genetic relatedness among isolates recovered from slaughterhouse water, contaminated meat, and clinical cases of foodborne illness can confirm water as a contamination source. However, in general, robust microbiological and food chain surveys are needed to establish clearer links between water-mediated contamination in slaughterhouses and subsequent human illness. Addressing these research gaps is critical for designing effective interventions and ensuring meat safety from slaughter through distribution. cg.contributor.initiative: One Health cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods

Operational Sentinel-2 System for Monthly Near‑real‑time Irrigated Area Mapping in the Limpopo River Basin

2026-03-26T11:38:11Z

dc.title: Operational Sentinel-2 System for Monthly Near‑real‑time Irrigated Area Mapping in the Limpopo River Basin dc.contributor.author: Kiala, Zolo; Matheswaran, Karthikeyan; Dickens, Chris; Garcia Andarcia, Mariangel; Ludwig, Fulco; Ghosh, Surajit dcterms.abstract: Monitoring irrigated agriculture is critical in the water-scarce Limpopo River Basin (LRB). However, existing approaches are often coarse, retrospective, or season-aggregated, which limits their ability to capture smallholder irrigation and the month-to-month dynamics required for operational management. This study addresses this gap by developing and validating a scalable, semi-supervised framework to produce monthly dry-season (May–September) 10 m irrigated-area maps and associated water-use estimates across the LRB for 2019–2024. The workflow integrates Sentinel-2 imagery, a Random Forest classifier, time-lagged precipitation–vegetation analysis, and slope masking in Google Earth Engine, and links mapped irrigated area to FAO’s WaPOR (Water Productivity through Open access of Remotely sensed derived data) evapotranspiration to estimate water use. Validation against independent field observations (n = 190) achieved 80% overall accuracy (κ = 0.60). Dry-season irrigated area declined from ~ 211,000 ha (2019) to ~ 185,000 ha (2024), while mean dry-season water use increased from ~ 103–134 × 106 m3, indicating rising irrigation intensity. Irrigation hotspots were concentrated in key sub-basins including the Middle Olifants, Crocodile, and Letaba. The resulting open-access, basin-scale product provides operational irrigation intelligence to support transboundary water allocation and drought response. It also offers a replicable model for other water-stressed basins. cg.contributor.initiative: Digital Innovation

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Water Accounting Assessment in the Lake Tana Sub-Basin, Ethiopia: Impacts of Interbasin Water Transfer

2026-03-24T07:02:43Z

dc.title: An Integrated Modeling Framework for Water Accounting Assessment in the Lake Tana Sub-Basin, Ethiopia: Impacts of Interbasin Water Transfer dc.contributor.author: Mekonnen, Kirubel; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Leh, Mansoor; Akpoti, Komlavi; Owusu, Afua; Mahapatra, Smaranika; Tinonetsana, Primrose; Madushanka, Lahiru; Perera, Tharindu; Tedla, H. Z.; Talema, M.; Seid, Abdulkarim dcterms.abstract: Study Region: Lake Tana Sub-Basin, Ethiopia Study Focus: The Lake Tana sub-basin plays a vital role in Ethiopia’s hydropower generation and irrigation development. However, the recent operation of an interbasin water transfer has intensified competition for water resources, raising concerns about long-term hydrological sustainability and downstream ecological flows. To evaluate these impacts, this study developed an integrated modeling framework that couples the HBV Light rainfall-runoff model, a lake water balance model, and the Water Accounting Plus (WA+) approach to assess water availability, consumption patterns, and downstream ecological flow conditions for 2010–2020. New hydrological insights for the Region: The HBV Light model was unable to accurately simulate the natural lake outflow, but its coupling with the lake water balance model significantly improved model performance, resulting in NSE of 0.79 and R² of 0.92. The mean annual inflow to the lake was estimated at 6.9 km³ , with 55% contributed by the Gilgel Abbay catchment. The rainfall and evaporation over the lake was estimated at 4.1 km³ yr⁻¹ and 5.1 km³ yr⁻¹ , respectively. Total annual outflow averaged 5.8 km³ , with 3.1 km³ yr⁻¹ diverted through the interbasin water transfer and 2.7 km³ yr⁻¹ outflow at the natural outlet. The interbasin water transfer now exceeds lake's natural outflow and has increased the frequency of unmet environmental flow requirements from 6% (pre-transfer period) to 27% during 2010–2020. In terms of consumption, rainfed agriculture dominates water consumption at 5.7 km³ yr⁻¹ , while irrigation accounts for only 0.4 km³ yr⁻¹ . Green evapotranspiration (ET) constitutes 68% of total water consumption, with blue ET making up the remaining 32%. These results demonstrate the hydrological implications of interbasin water transfer on lake outflow and downstream ecological conditions. The integrated modeling framework offers a scalable approach for hydrological assessment and water allocation in data-scarce basins.

Management Strategies for Sustainable Wheat Production in Pakistan – a Review

2026-03-23T10:17:29Z

dc.title: Management Strategies for Sustainable Wheat Production in Pakistan – a Review dc.contributor.author: Gul, N.; Salam, H. A.; Ashraf, Muhammad; Shaikh, I. A. dcterms.abstract: Sustainable wheat production in Pakistan relies on integrated best management practices that encompass land preparation, sowing methods, planting timing, weed control, balanced fertilization, irrigation scheduling, and disease management. Optimized land preparation techniques, including tillage sequencing, laser land leveling, and precise field surveying, enhance seedbed conditions, improve water use efficiency, and significantly increase yields. Modern sowing techniques such as ridge, raised-bed, and drill planting outperform traditional broadcasting methods, resulting in yield increases of 9–22% and water savings. Timely planting, especially early sowing with suitable varieties, is vital for avoiding thermal stress and maximizing grain development. Effective weed control using appropriate herbicides can prevent annual yield losses of 17–25%, while balanced fertilization guided by soil testing can boost production by up to 70%. Efficient irrigation scheduling based on crop water requirements and groundwater contributions helps prevent nutrient loss, waterlogging, and soil health decline. Additionally, proactive disease management particularly against rusts, root rot, smut, and black point through resistant varieties, timely fungicide applications, and optimized sowing times is essential for protecting yields. Collectively, these practices form a comprehensive framework for enhancing wheat productivity, water efficiency, and sustainability across Sindh and other wheat-growing regions of Pakistan. This review provides an extensive overview of best management practices that can guide farmers, researchers, and policymakers toward more efficient and sustainable wheat cultivation. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Comparing Bias Adjustment Methods for CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation Projections in the San-Pédro River Basin (Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa)

2026-03-23T08:31:56Z

dc.title: Comparing Bias Adjustment Methods for CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation Projections in the San-Pédro River Basin (Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa) dc.contributor.author: Akaffou, F. H.; Obahoundje, Salomon; Koffi, B.; Yangouliba, G. I.; Coulibaly, W. B.; N’guessan, K. J.-Y.; Diedhiou, A.; Kouassi, K. L. dcterms.abstract: West Africa (WA) is highly vulnerable to flooding and needs accurate projections of extreme precipitations to improve flood preparedness. However, selecting appropriate bias adjustment method for such projections remain challenging. This study assesses four bias adjustment methods, namely Cumulative Distribution Function Transfert Singularity Stochastic Removal (CDFt SSR), Empirical Quantile Mapping (Eqm), Delta, and Scaling in refining seventeen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and their ensemble mean (EnsMean) for projecting extreme precipitations under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) over the San-Pédro River basin. Analyses were performed at the annual and long rainy season timescales. Using Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) observational data, seven flood-related precipitation indices (PRCPTOT, R1mm, SDII, CWD, R99pTOT, Rx5day, and Rx1day) were computed over 1991–2020. Bias adjustment methods were calibrated (1982–2001) and validated (2002–2014) using statistical (R and Pbias) and graphical evaluations. Results revealed significant discrepancies among models and methods. While Delta-adjusted models achieved the best statistical performance (R > 0.8 and Pbias < 30%), CDFt SSR-adjusted models most accurately reproduced observed daily precipitation and indices distributions. However, limitations persisted for CWD and R99pTOT. Future projections indicate increase in extreme precipitation in the near (2031–2060) and far (2061–2090) futures, relative to the baseline period (1985–2014) across all scenarios, heightening flood risks, threatening agriculture, and challenging hydropower operations. CDFt SSR emerges as the most robust method for projecting extreme precipitations, offering a robust foundation for climate impact assessments and adaptation planning in WA.

Groundwater Assessment for Domestic and Irrigation Water Supply Based on Water Quality Indices and Geographic Information Systems in the Islamabad-Rawalpindi Metropolitan Area, Pakistan

2026-03-23T05:42:37Z

dc.title: Groundwater Assessment for Domestic and Irrigation Water Supply Based on Water Quality Indices and Geographic Information Systems in the Islamabad-Rawalpindi Metropolitan Area, Pakistan dc.contributor.author: Rana, S. A.; Ali, S. M.; Ashraf, Muhammad; Akhtar, N.; Ulain, Q.; Eqani, S. A. M. A. S. dcterms.abstract: Groundwater plays a vital role in drinking and daily supply in the Islamabad-Rawalpindi metropolitan areas. The current study is designed to comprehensively address the problem of groundwater quality using a multi-methodological approach with water quality indices (WQI). For this purpose, 122 observations were recorded and analyzed following standard procedures. Piper and Gibbs diagrams demonstrated groundwater characterization. The GIS and multivariate statistical analyses were employed for vulnerability assessment and source apportionment. The findings of the present study revealed that certain parameters (pH, alkalinity, bicarbonates, and potassium) were within the desirable range stipulated by the WHO and PSQCA. However, groundwater quality impairment is related to toxicities of EC, TDS, turbidity, TH, calcium, magnesium, sodium, chlorides, sulfates, nitrates, fecal, and total coliform. The WQI indicated that the study area exhibited poor to very poor groundwater quality. Irrigation indices explained that it is suitable or marginal at most studied sites, and only a few sites displayed unsuitable quality. Piper and Gibbs diagrams suggested that groundwater belongs to Ca-HCO3 and Ca-Mg-HCO3 or mixed types influenced by rock-water interactions and evaporation. Statistical analysis deciphered that anthropogenic and geogenic factors are the key determinants of water quality in the study area, including Lei recharge, domestic, agricultural, and industrial effluents, improper waste disposal, poor maintenance, and weathering processes. The study provides benchmark groundwater quality data that decision-makers can utilize to take appropriate measures for groundwater monitoring and pollution risk management in the twin cities. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Broadening the Dimensions of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus: A Narrative Review

2026-03-27T14:01:37Z

dc.title: Broadening the Dimensions of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus: A Narrative Review dc.contributor.author: Mabhaudhi, T.; Dlamini, N.; Geza, W.; Taguta, C.; Dirwai, Tinashe Lindel; Nhamo, L.; Mpandeli, S.; Chibarabada, T. P.; Jewitt, G. P. W.; Slotow, R. H. dcterms.abstract: The water-energy-food (WEF and its variants) nexus addresses the intricate linkages between human and natural systems to ensure sustainable management of natural resources without compromising economic, social, and environmental well-being. Despite this, the WEF nexus has been mainly approached as a focused biophysical system connecting those three dimensions. This review maps the extent to which the WEF nexus has been conceptualised and the consideration of additional dimensions linked to environmental and social outcomes. The aim is to broaden the WEF nexus concept to enhance its applicability to human, planetary, and sustainable development outcomes. Of the identified nexus frameworks, approximately 50% are sectorally unbalanced, as they centralise one or more resource node(s). Water and energy are key nexus nodes in most frameworks. The second most popular framing is water-energy-food-climate, followed by water-energy-land (WEL) and water-energy-food-land-ecosystems. In addition, the current WEF nexus approach is biased towards input-oriented conceptualisation. It fails to make explicit linkages to outcome- and impact-based dimensions, such as politics, gender, environment, planetary health and the economy. This limits its relevance and practical application in decision-making and policymaking for addressing sustainability and developmental challenges. Models and tools should be improved to be more holistic, including WEF resources and other linked resources, and should be useful for monitoring all sustainability outcomes (economic, social, and environmental). We propose a conceptual broadening of the WEF nexus to a WEF+ nexus, with the “plus” representing added outcomes-based dimensions such as environment, climate, people, planet and health. This conceptual broadening balances WEF resource securities with human, planetary and sustainable development outcomes.

Evaluating the performance of selected CMIP6 GCMs for simulations of historical temperature over Ethiopia

2026-03-20T13:41:57Z

dc.title: Evaluating the performance of selected CMIP6 GCMs for simulations of historical temperature over Ethiopia dc.contributor.author: Tagele, A. B.; Tarkegn, T. G.; van Oel, P. R.; Ray, R. L.; Tefera, G. W.; Demessie, S. F.; Shawul, A. A.; Ouko, O. C.; Berhanu, D.; Haileslassie, Amare; Worqlul, A. W.; Bantider, A.; Dile, Y. T.; Chukalla, A. D.; Tadesse, T. A.; Adgo, E. dcterms.abstract: This study evaluates the performance of seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and their Ensemble mean in reproducing historical maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures across five agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Ethiopia during 1995–2014. The assessment covers daily to annual time scales using observational and GCM datasets. Model performance was evaluated using Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (r), while the Comprehensive Rating Index (CRI) was applied for ranking. Results show substantial spatial and temporal variability in model performance. For Tmax, the Ensemble mean and EC-Earth3-veg performed best at the daily scale, while EC-Earth3-veg, MPI-ESM1-2-LR and BCC-CSM2-MR excelled at the monthly scale across most AEZs. Seasonally, top-performing models included Ensemble mean, MPI-ESM1-2-LR and MRI-ESM2-0 during Bega (October-January), EC-Earth3-veg, CNRM-CM6-1 and Ensemble mean during Belg (February-May) and CNRM-CM6-1 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR during Kiremt (June-September). For Tmin, CNRM-CM6-1, BCC-CSM2-MR and Ensemble mean ranked highest at both daily and monthly scales in most AEZs. At the annual scale, MRI-ESM2-0, Ensemble mean, MPI-ESM1-2-LR and CNRM-CM6-1 excel for Tmax, while EC-Earth3-veg, BCC-CSM2-MR and Ensemble mean lead for Tmin across most AEZs. MIROC6 consistently exhibited the weakest performance for both Tmax and Tmin across most AEZs and time periods. Thus, the Ensemble mean of all evaluated models does not consistently rank among the top three performers across all AEZs and time scales. The identified best-performing CMIP6 models provide valuable tools for assessing climate change impacts and developing region-and time-specific adaptation strategies in Ethiopia. Given the variability in GCM performance across AEZs and time scales, national or large-scale studies would benefit from using the Ensemble mean derived from the best-performing models. This study provides crucial insights into the strengths and weaknesses of different GCMs, supporting evidence-based decision-making and enhancing efforts to build climate resilience and adaptation strategies in the region. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Scaling for Impact

Scope and Feasibility of Enhancing the Irrigation Potential of the Kukadi Canal Command of Maharashtra, India

2026-03-19T07:34:56Z

dc.title: Scope and Feasibility of Enhancing the Irrigation Potential of the Kukadi Canal Command of Maharashtra, India dc.contributor.author: Panda, R. K.; Amarasinghe, Upali A.; Sarangi, A.; Sikka, Alok; Gorantiwar, S. D.; Mandave, Vidya; Mahapatra, Smaranika dcterms.abstract: Improving water use efficiency (WUE) in canal irrigation systems is vital for increasing agricultural output and maintaining ecological sustainability. Studies carried out in the Sina and Kukadi Left Bank Canal (KLBC) networks of Maharashtra, India, revealed marked disparities in the efficiency of the economic use of irrigation water. Investigations undertaken using geospatial tools highlighted a larger water influence zone (WIZ) in these systems, a factor often overlooked in conventional irrigation management. This finding led to the possibility of increasing the WUE by 113%, land productivity by 90% and EWP by 26% in KLBC, demonstrating the potential for optimising water resources and improving crop productivity. Additionally, the adoption of climate-resilient and water-efficient crop varieties resulted in a potential net value of output (NVOUP) increase of 80% in the KLBC irrigation system. These results emphasised the need for a comprehensive approach to irrigation water management that incorporates a detailed assessment of WIZ, conjunctive water use and sustainable cropping patterns. Such measures will not only improve water use efficiency but also contribute to a more sustainable and economically viable agricultural landscape in canal ecosystems.

Assessing the impact of nature-based solutions on soil health in Sub-Saharan Africa through farmer-centred methods

2026-03-05T05:26:28Z

dc.title: Assessing the impact of nature-based solutions on soil health in Sub-Saharan Africa through farmer-centred methods dc.contributor.author: Bittner, D.; Smith, J.; Leontidis, G.; Campbell, G. A.; Biegel, J.; Smith, P.; Kuhnert, M.; Skalský, R.; Giuliani, L. M.; Salik, A. W.; Hallett, P.; Burslem, D. F. R. P.; Yakob, G.; Mekuria, Wolde; Phimister, E.; Haileslassie, Amare; Tegegne, Desalegn; Norouzi, S.; Chen, H.; Gubry-Rangin, C.; Khan, A. dcterms.abstract: Soils underpin many ecosystem services, including food production, through functions such as organic matter decomposition. These functions are increasingly threatened by soil degradation, especially in climate-vulnerable regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa, where unstable soils are prone to severe erosion. As soils continue to degrade, farmers face multiple challenges; they cannot afford accurate tests to assess soil, their livelihoods are constrained by demand for food, fuel and water, and competition for valuable resources hampers farming. Hence, there is a pressing need for accessible tools to assess soil health and methods to provide tailored advice on resilient, climate-smart agricultural management and optimal use of resources. This narrative review offers a comprehensive overview of key issues and potential solutions. We highlight tools and approaches that can support farmers to improve soil and secure livelihoods. Practical indicators and field-ready tests are evaluated, with examples from Ethiopia, but tailored to support farmers and advisors across sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries. A wide range of tests are reviewed, including physical, biological, chemical, function and service-related tests, drawing on scientific and farmers knowledge. Science-based tests require expertise, equipment and incur costs, while locally-derived tests are affordable and seamlessly applicable. We also review Nature-based Solutions for improving soil quality, and assess them against factors such as labour, costs, and crop production. There is no single universally applicable practice; suitability depends on farmers’ priorities and circumstances. Therefore, we explore predictive methods—mechanistic, processbased soil models, data- and knowledge-driven Artificial Intelligence and systems models—to simulate the impact of practices on soil and farm dynamics. Promising approaches include hybrid approaches assimilating data, physics and knowledge through digital soil mapping. Overall, this review emphasizes the need to empower farmers with accessible tools and methods to harness Nature-based Solutions, build climate resilience and secure sustainable futures for generations ahead.

Perception of communities on benefit-sharing mechanisms in Bale Mountains National Park, Ethiopia

2026-03-20T09:01:02Z

dc.title: Perception of communities on benefit-sharing mechanisms in Bale Mountains National Park, Ethiopia dc.contributor.author: Tadele, H.; Haileslassie, Amare; Mekuria, Wolde dcterms.abstract: Protected area management has shifted towards holistic, ecosystem-based approaches that consider human-environment interactions. This includes the concept of benefit-sharing, which remains underexplored in the context of Bale Mountains National Park (BMNP), Ethiopia. Using the BMNP as a case study, the research (i) assessed existing benefit-sharing mechanisms, (ii) investigated community acceptance of existing benefit-sharing mechanisms, (iii) assessed the equity and fairness of benefit-sharing in BMNP, (iv) investigated the decision-making process in benefit-sharing mechanisms, and (v) assessed the challenges of operationalizing the benefit-sharing mechanisms. A mixed-methods approach involving household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions was employed, with respondents selected using multistage sampling. The findings suggest that, while BMNP has the potential to employ various benefit-sharing mechanisms, benefits are mainly derived from ecotourism and non-timber forest products. The existing benefit-sharing structure operates mainly through community user groups, but the benefits, delivered in the form of direct payments, community development projects, and capacity-building initiatives, are very limited. This reflects a weak and poorly coordinated benefit-sharing structure within the park. The results also revealed that community acceptance of existing benefit-sharing mechanisms varied significantly across districts bordering the park, which is attributed to unequal access to benefits across districts, and socioeconomic disparities, particularly the income levels of households. The study showed that 52.3% of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction with existing benefit-sharing mechanisms due to the lack of transparency and community involvement in benefit-sharing decisions. At the same time, decision-making processes were also reported to be male-dominated. The existing benefit-sharing mechanisms are fundamentally constrained by the lack of transparency, trust and a clear approach, further compounded by limited skilled manpower and financial resources, making them unsatisfactory in their current form. We suggest that the BMNP further expand benefit-sharing through community-based ecotourism, participatory forest management, and controlled hunting zones. In addition, a well-structured benefit-sharing mechanism is needed to create a win-win situation, ensuring both ecological integrity and economic benefits. Strong political will and commitment are essential to establishing a tourism revenue-sharing policy that ensures that local communities receive their fair share, fostering ownership and support for the park. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Scaling for Impact

Development of the Niger Basin Drought Monitor (NBDM) for early warning and concurrent tracking of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts

2026-02-27T11:57:48Z

dc.title: Development of the Niger Basin Drought Monitor (NBDM) for early warning and concurrent tracking of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts dc.contributor.author: Okpara, J. N.; Ogunjobi, Kehinde; Adefisan, E. A. dcterms.abstract: Drought remains a phenomenal disaster of critical concerns in West Africa, particularly within the Niger River Basin, due to its insidious, multifaceted, and long-lasting nature. Its continuous severe impacts on communities, combined with the limitations of existing univariate index-based monitoring methods, worsen the challenge. This paper introduces and evaluates a Hybrid Drought Resilience Empirical Model (DREM) that integrates meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological indicators to improve their concurrent monitoring and early warning for effective decision-making in the region. Using reanalysis hydrometeorological data (1980–2016) and community vulnerability records, results show that the DREM-based composite index detects drought earlier than the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), with stronger alignment to soil moisture and streamflow variations. The model identifies drought onset when thresholds range from −0.26 to −1.19 over three consecutive months, depending on location, and signals drought termination when thresholds rise between −0.08 and −0.82. The study concludes that the DREM-based composite index provides a more reliable and integrated framework for early drought detection and decision-making across the Niger River Basin, and hence, has proven to be a suitable drought monitor for stakeholders in the Niger Basin which can be relied upon and trusted with high confidence.

Community-led polycentric water management for drought mitigation in Southern Zambia

2026-03-05T06:44:37Z

dc.title: Community-led polycentric water management for drought mitigation in Southern Zambia dc.contributor.author: Mweemba, Carol Emma; van Koppen, Barbara; Amarnath, Giriraj dcterms.abstract: Recurrent droughts in Southern Zambia have increased rural community vulnerabilities, intensified water scarcity, and worsened food insecurity. Unpredictable rainfall and the drying of open water sources pose significant challenges to livelihoods. In response, Hanzila community in Zambia implemented a transformative locally-led initiative to enhance drought resilience, with support from district-level authorities, national government, and international partners. Sectoral silos in the government’s vertical polycentric decision-making framework were overcome by horizontal decision-making across all tiers. Accordingly, the installation of a solar-powered borehole facilitated year-round access to water for drinking, domestic use, livestock, and irrigation. An assessment of the impact of the solar-powered borehole established that 86% people had become less reliant on unclean water sources, with reduced travel to access water. Moreover, the proportion of households cultivating gardens increased from 23% to 69%, enhancing food security and nutrition. Over three quarters of the households that owned gardens now generated income from vegetable sales. The solar-powered borehole also created a reliable water source for 89% of the households that raised small livestock — goats, sheep, and chickens. Among the 48% of respondents who owned cattle, more than half had stopped using distant open water sources; instead, they now accessed water from the solar-powered borehole. However, households situated farther from the ten supply taps implemented with the borehole still had to travel longer distances to access water. To ensure all households have equal access to water when the available funding is limited, community members could contribute to finance the extension of the reticulation to reach all households. cg.contributor.initiative: Climate Resilience cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Climate Action

Modeling impacts of climate change on blue and green water, and crop yield using SWAT+ in Lake Tana Sub-basin (Ethiopia)

2026-03-18T06:14:07Z

dc.title: Modeling impacts of climate change on blue and green water, and crop yield using SWAT+ in Lake Tana Sub-basin (Ethiopia) dc.contributor.author: Tarkegn, T. G.; van Oel, P. R.; Chukalla, A. D.; Ray, R. L.; Tefera, G. W.; Worqlul, A. W.; Dile, Y. T.; Haileslassie, Amare; Adgo, E.; Bantider, A.; Taye, Meron Teferi dcterms.abstract: Understanding the impacts of climate change on blue and green water, as well as crop yield, is crucial for developing climate-resilient systems to mitigate water and food insecurity. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on blue and green water, and crop yield under different climate change scenarios in the Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia. The research integrates observational climate datasets, Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) to achieve this objective. The SWAT + model was calibrated and validated using monthly streamflow data and the long-term mean annual maize yield data. We analyzed the projected impacts of climate change on blue and green water and crop yield for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100) periods under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, using the baseline climate data (1992–2021) as a reference. Results indicate effective model simulation of streamflow and crop yield. Rainfall and temperature are expected to rise in both future periods and scenarios. At areal average scale, blue water is projected to increase by 11.1%–13.4% under SSP5-8.5, with no change under SSP2-4.5 in the 2050s and 2080s. Green water flow (GWF) is expected to rise in 2050s (8.5–12.3%) and 2080s (10.9–18.2%) in both climate change scenarios. Green water storage (GWS) is projected to increase by 5–20.7% under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario in the 2050s and 2080s, but to decline by 1.7–7.4% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario during the same periods. However, crop yield is anticipated to decline by 30.1%-41.5% in the 2050s and 26.6%-41.1% in the 2080s. The projected increase in blue water under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario has positive implications, as it can be conserved and utilized for agricultural production during seasonal water shortages. Conversely, the increase in GWF highlights the need for effective water management strategies to minimize losses under changing climatic conditions. The anticipated reduction in GWS under the SSP2-4.5 scenario indicates a decline in soil water availability for crop growth, which will negatively affect agricultural production. Similarly, the projected decrease in maize yield poses serious implications for food security in the region. Overall, these findings emphasize the urgent need for agro-hydrological interventions to mitigate climate change-induced water and food insecurity in the study area and other regions with comparable environmental and climatic settings. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Scaling for Impact

Optimizing the contributions of sand dam water storage through understanding their spatiotemporal variability: evidence from the Shashe Catchment, Limpopo, River Basin

2026-03-18T06:08:30Z

dc.title: Optimizing the contributions of sand dam water storage through understanding their spatiotemporal variability: evidence from the Shashe Catchment, Limpopo, River Basin dc.contributor.author: Ebrahim, Girma Yimer; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew P.; Batiya, F.; Hussey, S.; Dube, J. dcterms.abstract: Study region: Shashe catchment, Limpopo River basin, Zimbabwe Study focus: Sand dams, small structures built in ephemeral rivers to capture and store river flows in the sand, provide an important water source for rural communities that lack formal infrastructure. While their potential benefits are increasingly recognized, the spatiotemporal variability in the water they store remains unstudied. This knowledge gap constrains evidence-driven planning for sand dam development and limits the incorporation of sand dams into an integrated storage framework, a key approach to enhance resilience by satisfying storage needs from a diverse range of sources. To address this gap, this study uses in situ data to report on the spatiotemporal variability of water storage in sand dams in the Shashe catchment of the Limpopo River Basin. Five sand dams and two natural (i.e., undammed) sites were monitored weekly for water level fluctuations from January to December 2024. New hydrological insight for the region: Results indicate that all sand dams greatly improve water availability during the dry season compared to natural sites. Sand dams built on larger rivers are nonetheless more effective at maintaining water supply throughout the dry season. Seepage is identified as the primary pathway for water loss from the sand dams. To unlock the full potential of sand dams, planners should actively consider siting parameters, namely the river width, sediment accumulation thickness, sand accumulation area, and catchment area. Utilizing these criteria to inform planning can enhance the contribution and impact of sand dams, building more resilient and sustainable water systems. cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Impact of climate change on the inflow of Charvak Lake by three rivers (Pskem, Koksu, Chatkal), Uzbekistan, during the post-soviet period (1990-2022) modelled by QSWAT+

2026-02-15T16:12:30Z

dc.title: Impact of climate change on the inflow of Charvak Lake by three rivers (Pskem, Koksu, Chatkal), Uzbekistan, during the post-soviet period (1990-2022) modelled by QSWAT+ dc.contributor.author: Eshboyev, N.; Gafurov, Zafar; Kenjabaev, Shavkat; Alikhanov, B.; Muminov, S.; Pulatov, Y. dcterms.abstract: Our study examines the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Charvak Lake watershed in Uzbekistan, focusing on streamflow from the Pskem, Chatkal, and Koksu rivers during the 1990–2022 period. The analysis evaluated the contributions of snowmelt and glaciers to river flows while addressing modelling limitations, including the absence of dedicated land classes for snow cover and glaciers. This study, conducted under the CGIAR NEXUS Policy Innovation initiative, focused on hydrological modeling using the QSWAT+ tool to better understand these dynamics. Calibration efforts improved model performance, with statistical parameters indicating a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.77, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.59, and a percent bias (PBIAS) of –15%, demonstrating reasonable agreement between observed and simulated data. However, the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was low at 0.27, highlighting challenges in accurately simulating extreme flows during peak and low-flow periods. Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests showed no statistically significant trends in streamflow for both simulated and observed flows (p = 0.69 and p = 0.31, respectively), though observed data suggested a slight potential increase likely linked to glacier melt. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Small transboundary tributaries of Ferghana Valley, Central Asia: searching for constructive pathways toward cooperation

2026-03-05T06:44:33Z

dc.title: Small transboundary tributaries of Ferghana Valley, Central Asia: searching for constructive pathways toward cooperation dc.contributor.author: Holmatov, Bunyod; Lautze, Jonathan; Djumaboev, Kakhramon; Kenjabaev, Shavkat dcterms.abstract: Introduction: Cooperation on small transboundary tributaries (STTs) in Ferghana Valley of Central Asia is key to ensuring realization of benefits such as water supply for irrigation and livelihood activities. While factors driving and constraining cooperation on the region’s large rivers has received considerable focus, the dynamics surrounding cooperation at STT level is comparatively ambiguous. In particular, barriers to cooperation have not been systematically identified. Objective: To address this gap, we implemented semi-structured interviews with regional water experts to understand drivers of and constraints to formal cooperation in a set of STTs shared between the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan in the Ferghana Valley of Central Asia. Methods: Political stakeholder analysis tools were employed, with focus placed on water experts and a specific problem– insufficient cooperation on Ferghana Valley STTs, in particular those shared between the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan. The Kyrgyz-Uzbek STTs were selected for the case study because they account for over 70% of reported STTs in Ferghana Valley. Results: The results suggest that expansion of irrigated lands and construction of water infrastructure served as the main drivers of formal cooperation. Main present-day barriers to cooperation relate to border demarcation, lack of political will, low cost of water, and lack of internal (intra-sectoral) coordination. Actors identified as key to enabling formal water cooperation are water and agriculture specialists. Ongoing informal cooperation constitutes a powerful foundation on which to scale up to formal cooperative agreements and should thus form a key part of strategies aimed at realizing cooperation. Discussion: Based on these findings, we propose three concrete recommendations to strengthen cooperation in STTs within the Ferghana Valley: (1) enhance intra-sectoral coordination, planning and information exchange; (2) stimulate appreciation of the benefits of water cooperation in order to enhance political will; and (3) ensure non-water issues such as border delineation are resolved before discussions are initiated; otherwise, water cooperation efforts may be continually undermined. cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

The role of climate and loan financing information on solar irrigation adoption among cocoa farmers in Ghana

2026-03-04T14:38:04Z

dc.title: The role of climate and loan financing information on solar irrigation adoption among cocoa farmers in Ghana dc.contributor.author: Muller, L. C.F.E.; Bell, A. R.; Buisson, Marie-Charlotte; Calvo-Hernandez, C.; Gbodji, Kekeli Kofi; Obahoundje, Salomon; Zane, Giulia; Schaafsma, M. dcterms.abstract: While climate change poses increasing risks to cocoa production, the adoption of irrigation in Ghana's cocoa sector remains low. In this context, this study examined farmers' preferences for climate and loan financing information for solar irrigation adoption. A discrete choice experiment was conducted with cocoa farmers across seven regions of Ghana. In treatment groups, we varied the availability of major season consecutive dry days information, while both groups received major season rainfall amount information, forecast spread, and financial conditions for solar irrigation adoption. The climate information projected conditions over a five-year horizon. Using mixed logit and latent class models, we found that farmers responded strongly to loan costs per month and the fraction of their farm that would be irrigated. In contrast, farmers showed limited sensitivity to climate and forecast spread information. We found that farmers were not willing to pay for rainfall amount and consecutive dry days information. We did not detect a significant difference in cocoa farmer preferences for solar irrigation when additional dry days information was provided. However, we did detect that consecutive dry days information was used during decision making. Preferences were shaped by perceptions of climate change and education levels, and not by stated attribute non-attendance. The findings highlight the importance of financial support and that transmission of climate information to farmers and actual use of this information for decision making is complex and requires a context-specific combination of climate and behavioural sciences. cg.contributor.initiative: Excellence in Agronomy cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Farming

GHG emission from diesel-powered irrigation pumps and mitigation potentials in agriculture sector of Nepal

2026-04-27T09:32:16Z

dc.title: GHG emission from diesel-powered irrigation pumps and mitigation potentials in agriculture sector of Nepal dc.contributor.author: Thakuri, S.; Shrestha, Shisher; Palikhe, R.; Chauhan, R. dcterms.abstract: Emissions from diesel-powered irrigation pumps (DIPs) in Nepal’s agriculture sector contribute to climate change and local air pollution. This study presents the emission estimation using emission factors (EFs) for energy use in DIPs and estimates the contribution of DIPs to the GHGs emission in Nepal using both the bottom-up and top-down approaches. It involves analyzing data on the number of DIPs, the amount of fuel used for irrigation, hours of operations, and efficiency of the pumps. The various EFs for the DIPs were collected from the previous research reports and articles. The activity data for the bottom-up approach was collected from a telephone survey, field sampling, and review of the existing documents. The country-specific EFs for energy use in DIPs developed in Nepal by previous studies using sample measurements were used in this study. The estimated number of DIPs for 2024 is about 51,137 (1.5 to 9 hp; average 5 hp DIPs), operating an average of 192 h per year in Nepal. The DIPs consume 5891 m3 (kL) of fuel per year and emit 14,674 tons of CO2, 20.9 tons of CH4, 0.18 tons of N2O, 71.3 tons of NOx, 52.2 tons of non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC), 332.0 tons of CO, 54.4 tons of PM2.5, 40.30 tons of organic carbon (OC), 17.8 tons of black carbon (BC), and 0.6 tons of SO2 each year. The number of solar-powered irrigation pumps (SIPs) is 3129, which is about 2% of total irrigation pumps in Nepal. Farmers are providing encouraging feedback on the use of SIPs in their small-sized farms. The study shows that the number of electricity-powered pumps has increased rapidly by replacing the DIPs after the mid-2010s due to increased access to the grid electricity. The assessment is expected to support identifying opportunities to reduce emissions through improvements in technology, management practices, and other strategies. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Climate-smart agricultural assets and household coping strategies in times of upheaval

2026-02-09T09:54:15Z

dc.title: Climate-smart agricultural assets and household coping strategies in times of upheaval dc.contributor.author: Kafle, K.; Buisson, Marie-Charlotte dcterms.abstract: Transferring agricultural assets can be welfare-improving for smallholders. Can agricultural assets also improve smallholders' ability to cope with unprecedented exogenous shocks? We investigate this question using the case of subsidized solar-powered irrigation pumps (SIP) during the time of upheaval (COVID-19 pandemic) in Nepal. Data come from a primary survey of 656 households in southern Nepal. Using matching methods and ordinary least squares, we find that small-scale producers who received SIPs are more able to cope with COVID-19 restrictions than producers who did not receive SIPs. Selection into the subsidized SIP program is non-random, and the estimated relationship is not causal, but the findings alert policymakers and researchers to a positive unintended consequence of climate-smart agricultural assets. Our results contribute to building evidence on whether and how programs transferring climate-smart agricultural assets can improve smallholders' ability to cope with exogenous economic shocks and highlight the need for producing rigorous causal evidence.

Systems-oriented Innovation towards Sustainable Smallholder Mixed Farming

2026-03-18T06:12:21Z

dc.title: Systems-oriented Innovation towards Sustainable Smallholder Mixed Farming dc.contributor.author: Martínez-Ramón, Valentina; López-Ridaura, Santiago; Cossu, Alessandra; Chiduwa, Mazvita; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mponela, Powell; Shrestha, Nirman; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Rahman, Nurudeen Abdul; Bekunda, Mateete A.; Mekonnen, Kindu; Otieno, Mary Atieno; Abetu, Tamiru Amanu; Höft, Mattis; van Wijngaarden, Kim; Meijer, Sanderijn; Andreas, Daan; Veenings, Lois; Senesi, Margherita; Wang, Yifan; van de Ven, Gerrie; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Glover, Jerry; Snapp, Sieglinde S.; Groot, Jeroen C. J. dcterms.abstract: Existing innovation approaches in smallholder mixed farming systems (MFS) often fall short by overlooking system complexity and local contexts. This Perspective calls for more responsible and effective co-design of MFS innovations. We outline distinct (socio-)technical innovation pathways, to better comprehend their opportunities and trade-offs. Drawing on case studies from Sub-Saharan Africa and South and South-East Asia, we identify three key enablers for MFS innovation approaches: systems thinking, participatory processes, and context-sensitivity. Together, these elements can help unlock the potential of MFS to improve livelihoods and advance landscape sustainability across the Global South.

Solar irrigation in Nepal: Subsidy design, farmer adoption, and utilization patterns

2026-03-04T17:29:59Z

dc.title: Solar irrigation in Nepal: Subsidy design, farmer adoption, and utilization patterns dc.contributor.author: Varshney, Deepak; Mukherji, Aditi; Shrestha, Shisher; Ghimire, Laxman Prasad dcterms.abstract: Solar irrigation pumps (SIPs) are central to Nepal’s strategy for sustainable irrigation and reducing reliance on diesel pumps. The Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC) officially provides a 60% subsidy for SIPs under a demand-driven program. This study assesses (i) SIP subsidy delivery and adoption processes, and (ii) utilization patterns and their drivers, using a household survey of 630 farmers and a phone survey of 404 SIP owners. In practice, farmers contributed only 4% of total SIP costs on average, as local governments frequently topped up AEPC’s subsidy, making SIPs nearly free. While this boosted affordability, the scheme is only weakly progressive: large farmers also benefit from near-complete subsidization, raising equity and fiscal concerns. The applicant pool is dominated by educated, wealthier, and socially advantaged groups, while marginalized farmers are often excluded due to weak information and institutional gatekeeping. Utilization is moderate, with SIPs operating around 745 hours annually—well below their technical potential. Breakdowns, long repair delays (averaging 110 days), and missing after-sales services reduce use. Training in operation and maintenance increases utilization by 38%, while cultivation of water-intensive crops also drives higher use. Transparent communication of the full subsidy package, progressive cost-sharing to prioritize smallholders, and stronger investment in training and rapid-repair services are essential. Without such reforms, the program risks under-utilization and elite capture of subsidies, undermining SIPs’ transformative potential for agricultural resilience and low-carbon growth.

Developing a conceptual framework for a citizen science-based agroecology self-assessment tool

2026-03-05T06:43:57Z

dc.title: Developing a conceptual framework for a citizen science-based agroecology self-assessment tool dc.contributor.author: Mupangwa, W.; Maharaj, U.; Taylor, J.; Dickens, Chris; Choruma, Dennis Junior; Pike, T.; Dirwai, Tinashe Lindel; Nyawira, S.; Geck, M. S.; Braithwaite, I. dcterms.abstract: Introduction: Agroecology offers a promising approach to strengthen, and revolutionise, smallholder food and agricultural systems. Unfortunately, the assessment of agroecology impact at different scales and contexts is hindered by a lack of data and a lack of awareness of the potential of agroecology. Citizen science approaches are, however, demonstrating a knowledge revolution where learning is vested in the hands and tools of the farmers. The self-correcting mechanisms, that citizen science offers, enable the farmers to learn about and change their practices through the evidence they discover. In this way, the ability to change comes from within farmers’ experience and practices rather than farmers receiving information and knowledge from the outside. The purpose of this research work was to develop an accessible citizen science-based Agroecology Self-Assessment (ASA) tool framework. Methods: This proposed ASA framework is purely conceptual, at this stage, and encompasses both physical and digital tools that can be used to assess agroecological practices and has the potential to address gaps related to agroecology performance assessments, data generation and knowledge-sharing. Furthermore, the proposed tool could lead to the development of a citizen science community of practice to empower smallholder farmers to collaborate and share both new and indigenous knowledge practices. Through fieldwork, the feasibility of using a mobile application to both collect data on various agroecological indicators, such as soil health, biodiversity, and water management, as well as socioeconomic factors related to agroecology was investigated. Results and discussion: The findings from the fieldwork showed that there is interest by smallholder farmers and agricultural extension officers in the use of citizen-science tools to complement and enhance agroecological practices. The conceptual design and framework for the ASA tool was developed using the information from a desktop-based literature review and findings from discussions with smallholder farmers, researchers and agricultural extension officers. It is envisaged that the ASA tool, once in operation, will provide smallholder farmers with personalised feedback based on household and field assessments, foster knowledge sharing and self-correcting mechanisms. Such applied practices enable, and strengthen, evidence-based decision-making. The study concludes that the ASA tool is undoubtably needed and should include relevant practical assessment tools. cg.contributor.initiative: Agroecology cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Multifunctional Landscapes

Nutrient dynamics and recovery efficiencies in a decentralised faecal sludge and food waste treatment system

2026-03-18T06:08:48Z

dc.title: Nutrient dynamics and recovery efficiencies in a decentralised faecal sludge and food waste treatment system dc.contributor.author: Nartey, Eric Gbenatey; Sakrabani, R.; Tyrrel, S.; Dapaah, E.; Adamtey, Noah dcterms.abstract: Decentralised faecal sludge (FS) and food waste (FW) treatment systems like co-composting system offer more practical solutions for waste treatment and nutrient recovery in low- and middle-income countries, yet nutrient recovery and losses across this system remain poorly quantified.This study aimed to assess the flows, losses, and recovery efficiencies of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) & potassium (K) with the goal of recommending measures to minimize pollution to water bodies. Raw FS, FW, compost, and effluent samples were collected at each treatment stage over three treatment cycles from August 2021 – 2022 in Somanya, Ghana. A total of 108 composite samples were collected and analysed for N,P & K using standard procedures. The N, P & K losses at each stage of the treatment system were calculated using the mass balance principle and the nutrient flow diagrams were created using the Sankey diagram generator. Results show that, 59–86 % N, 8–40 % P and 49–81 % K were lost at the dewatering stages for all cycles. Losses were lumped together as either gaseous losses, adsorption to media surfaces or percolate. The overall nutrient recovery efficiency of the system was 6–17 % N, 20–37 % P & 17–24 % K in cocompost and treated effluent. Despite high removal efficiencies in the facultative ponds, the final effluent did not meet EU standards. Effluent may become a resource in geographies that have scarce water and less stringent regulations. This study recommends strategies and approaches such as biochar use, percolate/leachate recirculation and covering of compost piles to reduce nutrient losses. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Food Frontiers and Security

Solar irrigation for adapting to climate change in cocoa farming: a choice experiment approach identifying Ghanaian farmers’ preferences

2026-03-18T06:13:58Z

dc.title: Solar irrigation for adapting to climate change in cocoa farming: a choice experiment approach identifying Ghanaian farmers’ preferences dc.contributor.author: Gbodji, Kekeli Kofi; Quarmine, William; Buisson, Marie-Charlotte; Mitra, Archisman; Schmitter, Petra S. dcterms.abstract: Future climate conditions will be characterized by substantial uncertainty in weather patterns. For cocoa production, adapting to climate change will require securing water application and soil moisture by investing in irrigation infrastructure. In Ghana, government and private sector organizations have introduced solar-powered groundwater irrigation solutions to address the challenges. However, high upfront costs, limited access to institutional finance, and hydro-geological uncertainties constrain demand. We employed a discrete choice experiment approach to examine cocoa farmers’ willingness to adopt solar-based irrigation, surveying 550 farmers across seven regions depending on type of ownership, incentivized loans, and cutbacks on drilling uncertainties. The study revealed that cocoa irrigation investment decision depends primarily on access to longerterm loans, followed by cost reduction through group ownership, with the last factor being the reduction of uncertainties associated with borehole drilling. However, there are differences in farmers’ stated preferences based on wealth resources, gender, farm access, cocoa farm size, and household size. These findings suggest that policymakers should prioritize initiatives that alleviate financial constraints through longer-term loans to promote climate-resilient and sustainable agriculture. In addition, it indicates that a one-size-fits-all approach to promoting solar irrigation investment is unlikely to be effective, due to substantial heterogeneity in preferences amongst farmers. Instead, targeted policies are needed to increase solar pump adoption among marginalized groups like women and resource-poor farmers. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Farming

Agricultural water management for adaptation and mitigation: tension or co-benefits in achieving global good?

2026-03-05T06:43:59Z

dc.title: Agricultural water management for adaptation and mitigation: tension or co-benefits in achieving global good? dc.contributor.author: Lefore, N.; Schmitter, Petra S. dcterms.abstract: Water is at the intersection of global agriculture and climate change goals, serving as a resource to address the urgency of adaptation and the promise of mitigation. However, these goals – adaptation to ensure food security, changed practices to support mitigation, and reduced water use in agriculture – are often at odds. The tensions between measures aimed at multiple goals at the same time raise a critical question: Can we simultaneously adapt to and mitigate climate change to achieve global goals in both food and water security? We explore this question through examples of agricultural water management from the SIWI Seminar Series on ‘Water for Food in a Changing Climate’ during Stockholm World Water Week 2025. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Climate Action

An evolving landscape for nexus governance in transboundary basins: Recognizing and harnessing the growing role of multistakeholder platforms

2026-01-30T17:14:03Z

dc.title: An evolving landscape for nexus governance in transboundary basins: Recognizing and harnessing the growing role of multistakeholder platforms dc.contributor.author: Nehring, Ryan; Lautze, Jonathan cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Is global human well-being peaking?

2026-03-05T06:43:54Z

dc.title: Is global human well-being peaking? dc.contributor.author: Grafton, R. Q.; Chu, L.; Kompas, T.; Fanaian, Safa dcterms.abstract: We undertook multiple individual country time trend analyses using post 1990 data and estimated that real GDP per capita and life expectancy at birth, together, are projected to have peaked before 2050 for about two-thirds of the world’s population and at levels far below their current values in upper high-income countries. We found there are ‘flourishing’ countries where human well-being is already high and will likely increase, but a much larger group of ‘languishing’ countries where human well-being has peaked, or will likely peak, before 2050. We estimated a positive time-series association between real per capita income and broader composite (e.g. Human Development Index) well-being indicators, but this association diminishes in the level of real per capita income. A mitigation response to peaking average global human well-being is cross-country monetary transfers from higher- to lower-income countries. Thus, we calculated two possible global transfers: one equal to 1.3 trillion/year USD in total and an alternative based on the projected climate change damage to low to middle-income countries. Each global transfer would impose only a relatively small proportional cost on the national income of contributing countries but could provide very large average human well-being benefits to the poor and most vulnerable in low-income countries. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations; Scaling for Impact

Beyond a Decade of Water Justice: Review, Directions, and Pathways to Achieve “Water for All”

2026-03-18T06:13:02Z

dc.title: Beyond a Decade of Water Justice: Review, Directions, and Pathways to Achieve “Water for All” dc.contributor.author: Fanaian, Safa; Manero, A.; Nguyen, N.; Grafton, R. Q. dcterms.abstract: Water justice is increasingly recognized as central to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6), which seeks universal access to safe water and sanitation. Yet persistent injustices in water access, allocation, governance, and participation continue to undermine this goal. Despite growing global attention to and applications of “water justice,” a critical disconnect between understanding and practice highlights the need for a formal review and synthesis of just, equitable, and sustainable water management and governance. In response, we provide a comprehensive review of water justice scholarship published between 2012 and 2023. We systematically review and synthesize insights from 470 peer-reviewed studies to examine the evolution of water justice concepts, map their alignment with SDG sub-goals over time, and inventory proposed solutions. Our findings reveal a shift in the literature from an emphasis on distribution and procedural justice to a more recent focus on decolonial, socio-ecological, and pluralistic approaches to water justice. Our review highlights persistent barriers to water justice, including entrenched power asymmetries, institutional capture, and policy misalignment, while also identifying emerging responses focused on hybrid governance models, co-production processes, and justice-oriented social movements. We conclude that further advances in water justice research and practices require greater consideration of structural inequalities, reappraisal of water governance approaches, comparisons of alternative evidence-based, and context-specific actions, and an analysis of transformative responses to injustices. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations; Scaling for Impact

Bridging global goals with local realities: university engagement with the SDGs in Pakistan

2026-01-07T12:17:15Z

dc.title: Bridging global goals with local realities: university engagement with the SDGs in Pakistan dc.contributor.author: Cheema, Abdur Rehman; Ahmed, N.; Hassan, H.; Kemal, M. A. dcterms.abstract: Universities are where global promises meet local problems. This study examines how Pakistan’s higher education sector is aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across four domains—learning and teaching, research, governance and external leadership—based on responses from 41 of 247 universities. We find energetic activity in SDG—related teaching and research, but slower movement on institutional governance and outward leadership. Engagement varies by place: provincial and regional priorities mirror local socio—economic and environmental realities, from poverty and education to water, energy and climate resilience. Common barriers persist—limited funding, weak institutionalisation of SDGs and scarce incentives for interdisciplinary collaboration. Yet the potential is clear: universities already catalyse practical, localised solutions and can do more by embedding SDGs in curricula and operations, investing in partnerships with government, industry and communities and expanding student—led initiatives. The paper offers evidence, lessons and policy directions to help align campus capabilities with national and global sustainability ambitions.

Advancements in satellite observations of inland and coastal waters: building towards a global validation network

2026-01-05T17:56:22Z

dc.title: Advancements in satellite observations of inland and coastal waters: building towards a global validation network dc.contributor.author: Avouris, D. M.; Maciel, F.; Sharp, S. L.; Craig, S. E.; Dekker, A. G.; Di Vittorio, C. A.; Gardner, J. R.; Goldsmith, E.; Gossn, J. I.; Greb, S. R.; Grunert, B. K.; Gurlin, D.; Jampani, Mahesh; Khan, R. M.; Lowin, B.; McKinna, L.; Mouw, C. B.; Ogashawara, I.; Calle, S. R.; Salls, W.; Sánchez-Cabeza, J.-A.; Schaeffer, B.; Seegers, B. N.; Silander, J.; Smail, E. A.; Wang, M.; Werdell, J. dcterms.abstract: The use of satellite-based remote sensing imagery for water quality monitoring of inland and coastal waters has become widespread over the last few decades, with the expansion of, and investment in, operational Earth-observing missions. Satellite-based sensors are uniquely suited to provide synoptic, system-wide water quality parameter estimates that supplement traditional field-based sampling methods. The remote sensing of water quality parameter estimates is particularly valuable in systems with high temporal and spatial variability, as well as in areas that are difficult to access, or where agencies lack funding for routine monitoring. However, optically complex inland and coastal waters pose additional challenges for developing robust remote sensing retrieval models for optical properties and water quality parameters. One of the biggest challenges is collecting high quality field measurements that are used to calibrate and validate the retrieval algorithms. Here, we present the current status of satellite missions, field methods that include instruments used and commonly measured parameters, and repositories of historical field data that are relevant to inland and coastal water studies. We then present data requirements for model validation and highlight gaps in validation coverage. Finally, we provide considerations for future field campaigns to improve coordination with remote sensing data collection and ensure that field data is well suited for use in model or algorithm development.

Hydroclimatic extremes and food security hotspots in West Africa: evidence from rainfall–yield interactions

2026-03-18T06:08:16Z

dc.title: Hydroclimatic extremes and food security hotspots in West Africa: evidence from rainfall–yield interactions dc.contributor.author: Obahoundje, Salomon; Tilahun, Seifu A.; Schmitter, Petra S. dcterms.abstract: Introduction: Rainfall regimes across West Africa have undergone substantial transformations over the past four decades, with profound implications for rainfed agriculture and food security. However, limited understanding persists on how rainfall extremes translate into spatially differentiated crop yield responses across agroclimatic zones. Methods: This study integrates multi-decadal climate datasets with crop yield data from the Global Dataset of Historical Yields (GDHY) to assess the sensitivity of maize, rice, and soybean yields to hydroclimatic extremes across six agroclimatic zones. A sensitivity analysis using an Ordinary Least Squares regression framework quantified crop yield responses to key climatic variations across multi-decadal timescales, agroclimatic zones, and administrative units. Results: Results reveal marked north–south contrasts in rainfall extremes. In the Sahelian and Sudanian zones, seasonal rainfall increased by 5%–25% since the 1990s and up to 80% in the Northern Sahel by 2024, largely driven by more frequent wet days and intensified rainfall events. These trends heighten flood and erosion risks in northern regions. Conversely, the Guinean zones exhibit stagnating or declining rainfall, coupled with over a 90% increase in consecutive dry days in Central Guinea, signaling intensifying drought stress. Crop yield responses associated with these hydroclimatic patterns. Maize yields increased by 40%–50% in the Sahelian, Sudanian, and parts of the Guinean zones, while rice yields declined by 20%–50% in Nigeria’s Sudanian and Eastern Guinea regions. Soybean showed localized yield gains but remained extremely sensitive to rainfall deficits and heat extremes. Discussion: By linking rainfall variability to spatially explicit yield responses, this study provides a novel multi-decadal sensitivity framework for evaluating climate impacts on agriculture in West Africa. The findings highlight the urgent need for region-specific, climate-smart adaptation strategies, emphasizing flood and erosion management in the north and drought resilience in the south, to sustain food production under increasing climatic variability. cg.contributor.initiative: Excellence in Agronomy cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Farming

Pathways for accountability in intergovernmental water-climate conferences

2026-03-05T06:44:38Z

dc.title: Pathways for accountability in intergovernmental water-climate conferences dc.contributor.author: Jones-Crank, J. L.; Bayoumi, M.; Jacobs-Mata, Inga; Klimes, M.; Samel, M.

Institutional barriers to food safety: The irrigated vegetable value chain in Accra, Ghana

2026-03-05T06:44:31Z

dc.title: Institutional barriers to food safety: The irrigated vegetable value chain in Accra, Ghana dc.contributor.author: Galibourg, David; Scott, R. E.; Gough, K. V.; Amoah, Philip dcterms.abstract: The faecal contamination of irrigation water threatens public health. Although safe practices can mitigate hygiene and food safety risks along the urban irrigated vegetable value chain, their adoption remains limited. A behaviour framework was combined with a participatory approach to explore how institutions influence stakeholders’ capability, opportunity and motivation to adopt safe practices in Accra, Ghana. After extensive preparation, a dialogue engaged stakeholders and institutions in identifying the actors and interactions influencing stakeholder practices. We found that institutional dynamics and misaligned priorities hinder stakeholders’ opportunity and motivation to adopt safe practices, while their capability (education and skills) is not actively hindered. Knowledge gaps created by top-down approaches and sectoral silos were bridged by engaging participants in conducting the behavioural diagnosis. This shared understanding highlights the need to integrate and harmonise policies, regulations and service provision across water, sanitation, agriculture and health sectors, enabling participants to co-design arrangements that make safe practices easier to adopt.

Gendered exclusion in agricultural water governance: A case study in district Okara, Pakistan

2026-03-18T06:12:21Z

dc.title: Gendered exclusion in agricultural water governance: A case study in district Okara, Pakistan dc.contributor.author: Waqar, Kanwal; Hafeez, Mohsin dcterms.abstract: Background: Gender disparities in agricultural water management persist globally, yet context-specific evidence from Pakistan remains limited. This study investigates the systemic barriers to gender equity in water governance in District Okara, Punjab, which is a critical agricultural region due to its highly fertile land, extensive canal irrigation system, and significant production of key crops and livestock. Methods: A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating: (i) a quantitative survey of 402 households (ii) a qualitative gender analysis of national and provincial water policies, and (iii) stakeholder consultations with government departments and Water User Associations (WUAs). Results: The findings reveal a profound disconnect between women’s labor and their decision-making power. Despite contributing 3–4h of daily agricultural labor, only 3% women involved in of on-farm decisions. Policy analysis shows the National Water Policy 2018, and provincial water acts i.e, Punjab Water Act 2019 & KP Water Act 2020 are gender-blind. Institutional barriers are evident, with women in WUAs often serving as “silent observers” and 92% of women requesting flexible training formats to overcome time poverty, exemplified by their 15–30 min daily water collection burden. Conclusion: Gender-blind policies, socio-cultural norms, and institutional constraints collectively sustain women’s exclusion from water governance. Transformative change requires enforceable gender quotas in WUAs, awareness and literacy programs and gender-responsive trainings targeting institutions and WUAs. These interventions are essential for advancing inclusive, SDG-aligned water management in Pakistan and comparable contexts, ensuring equitable access, resilience, and sustainable resource use. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Variability of Rainfall and the Cropping Season of a Tropical Dry Zone River Basin: A Case Study in the Malwathu Oya River Basin in Sri Lanka

2026-03-04T14:37:40Z

dc.title: Variability of Rainfall and the Cropping Season of a Tropical Dry Zone River Basin: A Case Study in the Malwathu Oya River Basin in Sri Lanka dc.contributor.author: Abeysingha, N. S.; Madurapperuma Arachchige, S. D.; Ray, R. L.; Muthuwatta, Lal dcterms.abstract: The temporal and spatial rainfall variability impacts water resource management, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem health in river basins. This study utilized 44 years of daily rainfall data (1976–2020) at 27 stations across the Malwathu Oya river basin, Sri Lanka, to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the basin and identify possible impacts of climate change on rainfall variability and trends. Standardized anomaly, coefficient of variation (CV), monotonic trends of rainfall and dry days, and the onset and retreat of the cropping season, Maha were computed for the last four decades, and the impacts of climate change were evaluated by checking the differences in the variables before and after the year 2000 using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The annual rainfall of the Malwathu Oya river basin shows a significant increase, primarily contributed by the upstream region. The study identified the higher variability of the onset of the Maha seasonal rainfall, showing an early onset of the season. Total annual rainfall showed a significant increase after the year 2000, probably due to climate change, and the overall temporal patterns of rainfall events remain consistent with those of before 2000. This trend toward more intense but less frequent rainfall events highlights the need for adaptive water resource management plans to mitigate potential challenges related to flood risks in the basin, and the early onset of Maha rain is to be taken as an opportunity for the farmers in the basin.

Socio-economic valuation of water reallocation: framework development and application in South Africa

2026-03-18T06:13:12Z

dc.title: Socio-economic valuation of water reallocation: framework development and application in South Africa dc.contributor.author: Zane, Giulia; Buisson, Marie-Charlotte; van Koppen, Barbara; Sithole, P.; Mapedza, Everisto D.; Dini, J. dcterms.abstract: This paper introduces a socio-economic valuation framework for water reallocation that integrates considerations of equity, efficiency, and sustainability into decision-making. Designed to inform the development and implementation of policy in contexts of water scarcity and historical inequality, the framework systematically incorporates both direct economic benefits and externalities, such as poverty alleviation, food security, and inequality reduction, across different user groups. Applying the framework to South Africa's Inkomati-Usuthu Water Management Area (IUWMA), we demonstrate how it aligns with the country's third National Water Resource Strategy (NWRS-3) and compulsory licensing processes under the National Water Act. Despite data limitations, empirical findings from the case study reveal that reallocating water from large-scale commercial agriculture to historically disadvantaged smallholder farmers could yield welfare gains. The proposed framework offers a practical tool to support inclusive and evidence-based water governance by moving beyond conventional equity-efficiency trade-offs and incorporating non-market benefits.

Advancing Soil Moisture Prediction Using Satellite and UAV-based Imagery with Machine Learning Models

2026-03-05T06:44:01Z

dc.title: Advancing Soil Moisture Prediction Using Satellite and UAV-based Imagery with Machine Learning Models dc.contributor.author: Hussain, S.; Arshad, M.; Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Qamar, M. U.; Wajid, S. A.; Daccache, A. dcterms.abstract: Crop yields in Pakistan are significantly lower than their potential, primarily due to limited water availability and the reliance on rotation water delivery instead of demand-based water supply. The absence of spatially explicit information on water stress at the farm level further constrains overall crop productivity. Therefore, it is essential to map soil moisture availability and monitor moisture stress to enhance the efficiency of water delivery at the district level and promote precision in on-farm irrigation application. To continuously monitor soil moisture availability and identify moisture stress hotspots, peanut crops were cultivated during the 2021 and 2022 growing seasons at PMAS-Arid Agriculture University Research Center, Koont Farm, Rawalpindi. Experimental trials were conducted in both irrigated (drip irrigation) and rainfed fields to address soil moisture variability in the context of precision irrigation management. Soil moisture monitoring was performed using a combination of proximal soil moisture sensors, satellite data (Landsat 8/9 and Sentinel-2), and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) equipped with multispectral sensors. Satellite data and UAV imagery were processed to calculate soil moisture indices, including the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Moisture Vegetation Index (MVI), Water Stress Index (WSI), and Drought Stress Water Index (DSWI-4). Ground-truth data, including in situ soil moisture measurements at 15 cm depth and crop yield observations, were recorded for validation. A machine learning (ML) model, Random Forest (RF), was employed to accurately predict soil moisture content at 15 cm depth. The spatial maps were generated using satellite data and UAV-based imagery to identify the specific areas experiencing moisture stress. Among the moisture stress indices, WSI demonstrated a strong positive correlation with soil moisture (R² = 0.95 in 2022 and 0.85 in 2021) in the drip irrigated field. The RF model predicted soil moisture with a high accuracy (R² = 0.97 to 0.99 and RMSE = 0.00) using UAV-based moisture indices as input parameters. Furthermore, the improved surveillance of moisture stress enabled the identification of hotspot areas, allowing for the targeted implementation of protective measures for precision irrigation at the farm level.

Suitability of paddy cultivation in the Western province of Sri Lanka under different climate change scenarios

2026-03-05T06:44:13Z

dc.title: Suitability of paddy cultivation in the Western province of Sri Lanka under different climate change scenarios dc.contributor.author: Pitawala, K. G.; Vidanage, S. P.; Muthuwatta, Lal; Alotaibi, B. A.; Najim, M. M. M.; Nayak, R. dcterms.abstract: Climate change poses a significant threat to global agriculture, with implications for food security. Regions that rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture, especially in developing countries, such as the Western province of Sri Lanka are particularly vulnerable. The current research aims to assess future climate expectations and their impacts on paddy cultivation in Sri Lanka’s Western province for the purpose of identifying measures to address the multi-faceted consequences of climate change. The main objective of the study was to determine the spatial suitability of paddy in the Western province for the years 2030 and 2050 under different climate change scenarios. Rice occurrence points and bioclimatic variables were employed to model the spatial suitability of paddy under current, 2030 SSP 245, 2030 SSP 585, 2050 SSP 245, and 2050 SSP 585 climatic conditions using ‘biomod2’ package of RStudio software. The results revealed that areas unsuitable for paddy cultivation increased under 2030 SSP 245 (1,437.30 km2), 2030 SSP 585 (1,594.80 km2), 2050 SSP 245 (2,624.40 km2), and 2050 SSP 585 (2,627.10 km2) conditions when compared with current (1,044 km2) climatic conditions. Further, the simulation indicated that the species range change between the current climatic conditions and 2030 SSP 245 (−16.58), 2030 SSP 585 (−13.62), 2050 SSP 245 (−37.03), and 2050 SSP 585 (−50.51) is negative. The percentage loss in paddy range between current and 2030 SSP 245, 2030 SSP 585, 2050 SSP 245 and 2050 SSP 585 climatic conditions were shown to be 52.94%, 47.89%, 22.07% and 67.85%, respectively. Therefore, the results of the present study highlight the need for a comprehensive approach that integrates climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture to ensure food security and to protect vital ecosystems. The findings of this study can be utilized by researchers, policymakers, and practitioners aiming to achieve global sustainability goals.

Acceleration of diverging runoff trends on the Third Pole

2026-03-18T06:13:39Z

dc.title: Acceleration of diverging runoff trends on the Third Pole dc.contributor.author: Wang, L.; Li, X.; Lutz, A.; Nepal, Santosh; Chen, D.; Yao, T.; Su, F.; Cuo, L.; Yao, Z.; Hu, Z.; Huang, J.; Hou, M.; Liu, R.; Long, J.; Chai, C.; Liu, Z.; Bashir, A.; Khanal, S.; Sun, H.; Nie, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, T. dcterms.abstract: Quantifying long-term historical changes in river runoff from the vulnerable high-mountain Third Pole is critical for Asia’s water resources planning, but still unresolved from a coherent, regional perspective in the climate change context. Here we show that the mountain-outlet runoff generally experienced significant increases for the westerlies-dominated rivers (Indus, Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Tarim, Heihe, and, Shule) and insignificant declines for the monsoon-dominated rivers (Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, and Salween) in the past half-century, largely driven by the enhanced westerlies and weakened Indian summer monsoon. Although the changing rates of runoff can be mostly explained by the varying precipitation minus evapotranspiration, the total water storage changes (e.g., regional glacier melting, groundwater depletion) cannot be neglected. After the year 1997, the contrasting changes in the westerlies- and monsoon-dominated regions have been remarkably accelerated, necessitating proactive adaptations to sustain regional water, ecology, and food security. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Co-creating water knowledge: a community perspective

2026-03-18T06:09:43Z

dc.title: Co-creating water knowledge: a community perspective dc.contributor.author: Castelli, G.; Howard, B. C.; Adyel, T. M.; AghaKouchak, A.; Agramont, A.; Aksoy, H.; Alba, R.; Alencar, P. H. L.; Amanambu, A. C.; Aslam, H.; Bharati, L.; Bos-Burgering, L.; Bresci, E.; Caramiello, C.; Cavus, Y.; Chaudhari, K.; Chifflard, P.; Choukrani, H.; Chun, K. P.; Cudennec, C.; Cumiskey, L.; Dakhlaoui, H.; De Angeli, S.; Madruga de Brito, M.; Dembélé, Moctar; Dewals, B.; Dussaillant J., A. R.; Elshenawy, A.; Gwapadza, D.; Hall, C.; Hermans, L.; Höllermann, B.; Jaramillo, F.; Jomaa, S.; Koren, G.; Krause, S.; Lahsaini, M.; Mahé, G.; Manfreda, S.; Maynard, C.; Mendiondo, E. M.; Merheb, M.; Nóbrega, R. L. B.; Ocampo-Melgar, A.; Olusola, A.; Orduna Alegria, M. E.; Owusu, Afua; Pacetti, T.; Panchanathan, A.; Panda, S.; Piemontese, L.; Pradhanaga, D.; Ajin, R. S.; Rusca, M.; Scrolobig, A.; Thaler, T.; Tran, B. N.; Trimi-Chifflard, D.; Vanelli, F. M.; Villani, L.; Walker, D. W.; Zarif, F.; Buytaert, W.; Ceperley, N. dcterms.abstract: Navigating the complexities of global and local water resources challenges requires collaboration and mutual learning among diverse knowledge systems and disciplines. However, Western philosophical approaches to generating knowledge have prevailed in water management and hydrology, often overlooking community priorities, practices and perspectives, and power asymmetries - including gender inequalities, racism, and colonial injustices. In this perspective paper, we explore the co-creation of water knowledge (CCWK) concept to value multiple and diverse forms of knowledge. We identify four overarching principles (inclusivity, openness, legitimacy, and actionability), highlighting the importance of establishing relationships and collaborative leadership, adopting key tools and techniques, and integrating knowledge for water resources management. Furthermore, we argue that prioritizing epistemic justice is essential for effective CCWK. To address these, we advocate for more interdisciplinary and reflexive research practices that challenge and disrupt Western scientific traditions shaped by functionalist and colonial legacies.

Sustainable groundwater development for improved agrarian livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa: a decadal update

2026-01-29T07:00:55Z

dc.title: Sustainable groundwater development for improved agrarian livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa: a decadal update dc.contributor.author: Pavelic, Paul; Verma, Shilp; Villholth, Karen G. dcterms.abstract: In 2013, Water International published a two-part special issue, Identifying the barriers and pathways forward for expanding the use of groundwater for irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the issue, the authors – and the editors – highlighted the enormous opportunity presented by Sub-Saharan Africa’s groundwater resources to improve agricultural productivity and potential to lift millions of smallholder farmers out of poverty. Since then, a lot has changed in the domain of groundwater irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa, although perhaps not quite as rapidly or as democratically spread as the authors of the special issue would have liked to witness. This decadal update revisits the 2013 papers and reviews the developments since to chart a way forward for sustainable, inclusive and effective development and governance of groundwater for irrigation in the region.

Comparison of bias correction methods to enhance CHIRP rainfall estimates for improved streamflow simulation at Ziway-Shalla Catchment, Ethiopia

2026-03-05T06:44:29Z

dc.title: Comparison of bias correction methods to enhance CHIRP rainfall estimates for improved streamflow simulation at Ziway-Shalla Catchment, Ethiopia dc.contributor.author: Beyene, T. L.; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Goshime, D. W.; Birhan, S. T. dcterms.abstract: Study region: Ziway-Shalla Catchment, Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia. Study focus: Rainfall data availability significantly impacts the performance of rainfall-runoff models. Satellite rainfall estimates have the potential to fill data gaps if their systematic error is corrected. This study aims to compare the performance of five bias correction methods namely power transformation (PT), quantile mapping based on gamma distribution (QMG), daily translation (DAT), distribution transformation (DT), and linear scaling (LS) using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) product. The effect of bias corrections on simulated streamflow was assessed using the Hydrologiska ByrånsVattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. New hydrological insights for the region : Results revealed the raw CHIRP contains large biases and the accuracy of bias-corrected rainfall data showed spatial variation across the study basin in Ethiopia. The QMG and PT methods outperformed other bias correction methods, whereas DT performed poorly in capturing the spatial pattern of annual average rainfall and its temporal variation. The streamflow simulated by the HBV model resulted in ∼11 % relative volume error (RVE) when the raw CHIRP product served as model input. Using bias-corrected CHIRP rainfall estimates improved the model performance in capturing the volume and pattern of the observed streamflow hydrograph and calibrated model parameter values changed when the rainfall input and bias correction methods varied. The results highlight the importance of bias correction methods for improved streamflow simulation.

A one government approach for agroecology policy coordination in Zimbabwe

2025-11-24T16:09:02Z

dc.title: A one government approach for agroecology policy coordination in Zimbabwe dc.contributor.author: Marenya, Paswel P.; Chiduwa, Mazvita S.; Ngoma, Hambulo; Chipindu, Lovemore; Nohayi, Ngowenani; Chimonyo, Vimbayi G.P. dcterms.abstract: In Zimbabwe, as in many other countries, agroecological transitions are often hindered by coordination and execution challenges, rather than by insufficient policy aspirations. Such aspirations, or political intentions, are found in many policy and policy-oriented documents. This study synthesizes 18 government policy documents, academic literature, and an influence-interest mapping exercise to assess the alignment and coordination of agroecology policies in Zimbabwe. Using machine learning-based text analysis, we evaluate thematic congruence across these documents in relation to agroecology principles. The results suggest that the key constraint is not the absence of supportive policies but rather, unclear mechanisms to align and coordinate them effectively. To address these challenges, we propose two approaches: the development of a transcendent agroecology theory of change (in the service of policy coherence) and a "One Government" approach for enhanced inter-sectoral coordination at lower jurisdictions and last-mile implementation. We posit that the analytical framework used here can be applied in real-world policy monitoring, focusing on agroecology or other social objectives. cg.contributor.initiative: Agroecology

Bangladesh’s groundwater trade-offs from decarbonizing irrigation through solar-powered pumps

2026-03-18T06:12:02Z

dc.title: Bangladesh’s groundwater trade-offs from decarbonizing irrigation through solar-powered pumps dc.contributor.author: Alam, Mohammad Faiz; Mitra, Archisman; Mahapatra, Smaranika; Pavelic, Paul; Buisson, Marie-Charlotte; Habib, A.; Saha, T. K.; Haque, A.; Sikka, Alok dcterms.abstract: Solar-powered irrigation systems are being scaled globally, especially in South Asia, to mitigate agriculture’s carbon emissions while addressing water–energy–food nexus challenges. However, this expansion raises concerns that solar irrigation could exacerbate groundwater overexploitation. Here we assess groundwater trade-offs of solar irrigation deployment in Bangladesh by comparing farmers’ water use for dry season paddy cultivation under diesel pumps and a solarized fee-for-service model. After accounting for soil, variety, land type and sowing time, no significant difference in terms of water application was found between solar (694–1,014 mm) and diesel (663–775 mm) plots in 2021–22 and 2022–23. A marginal 4.2 percentage point increase in dry season paddy area was observed under solar irrigation. Groundwater modelling shows solar irrigation has minimal regional impact, though risks arise if water use and dry-season area increase significantly. These results provide empirical evidence of changes in farmers’ water use after the transition to solar irrigation, but they are highly context-specific. Further research and tailored policies—such as water-saving practices, volumetric pricing, targeted scaling and smart subsidies—will ensure sustainable solar irrigation upscaling.

Integrating prediction of precipitation and hydrology for early actions: the InPRHA project within the World Weather Research Programme

2026-03-13T11:45:53Z

dc.title: Integrating prediction of precipitation and hydrology for early actions: the InPRHA project within the World Weather Research Programme dc.contributor.author: Cattoën, C.; Carr, R. H.; Bennett, J.; Dougherty, E.; Fortin, V.; Imhoff, R.; Lee, G.; Luo, Y.; Mapedza, Everisto D.; Polcher, J.; Prabhakaran, T.; Taylor, A.; Leon, J. V.; Phillips, S.; Kleist, D.; Ramos, M.-H.; Caltabiano, N.; Davis, C.; De Coning, E. dcterms.abstract: Despite advancements in science and technology, flood prediction and preparedness remain challenging due to uncertainties in forecasting atmospheric and hydrologic processes, limited real-time data, and communication barriers. The Integrating Prediction of Precipitation and Hydrology for Early Actions (InPRHA) project, a 5-yr initiative under the WMO’s World Weather Research Programme, is the first to bring together meteorology, hydrology, and social sciences within a steering committee to address these challenges. Building on knowledge from the High Impact Weather (HiWeather) project, InPRHA focuses on multihazard flood forecasting across the entire warning value chain from minutes to days, in a rapidly changing world. A key emphasis is understanding flood predictability and how uncertainties cascade through forecasting systems and are perceived, communicated, and acted upon by diverse stakeholders. This includes bridging research and operations, examining socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental challenges that influence risk perception and response. We propose key scientific questions across seven themes that address critical gaps in integrating predictions along the flood warning value chain. Addressing these gaps requires collaboration across disciplines and agencies. The project is structured into four work packages: DEFINE (identifying challenges), CONSTRUCT (gathering case studies), EXPERIMENT (scientific evaluations), and ENGAGE (community collaboration). Research will span rural, urban, and underdeveloped regions as well as countries with established warning systems, ensuring broad applicability. We invite scientists and practitioners from meteorology, hydrology, hydraulics, impacts, communication, human behavior, and economics to collaborate. By integrating disciplines and fostering transdisciplinary research, InPRHA aims to advance the science and practice of flood forecasting and early warnings to better protect vulnerable communities at risk. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Gender Equality and Inclusion

Locus of Control and Economic Decision-Making: A Field Experiment in Odisha, India

2026-03-16T14:37:59Z

dc.title: Locus of Control and Economic Decision-Making: A Field Experiment in Odisha, India dc.contributor.author: Jansson, Cecilia Ahsan; Patil, Vikram; Vecci, Joseph; Veettil, Prakashan Chellattan; Yashodha dcterms.abstract: We study psychological impediments that make it difficult to change behavior. In particular, we evaluate the effect of a randomized intervention designed to target locus of control—an individual’s belief in his or her own ability to influence his or her outcomes—on the adoption of two products that can improve climate resilience. In the control group, farmers receive standard agricultural education. Treatment farmers are assigned to one of three treatments. They receive agricultural training and (1) a psychological information treatment providing tools to change beliefs about one’s sense of control, (2) a crop-simulation app allowing farmers to simulate their agricultural decisions, or (3) both treatments combined. Our sample consists of 1,674 farmers from 252 villages in Odisha, India. At baseline, we find that most individuals do not believe they can influence their agricultural outcomes. However, the interventions show limited effect on agricultural behavior, locus of control, or aspirations. We then explore potential explanations for these findings. cg.contributor.initiative: Market Intelligence cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Breeding for Tomorrow

Environmental and social considerations in hydropower development in the South Asian Himalayas: a NEXUS perspective

2026-03-18T06:08:25Z

dc.title: Environmental and social considerations in hydropower development in the South Asian Himalayas: a NEXUS perspective dc.contributor.author: Bhandari, R.; Neupane, N.; Shrestha, Shisher; Chauhan, D.; Pokharel, D.; Xue, W. dcterms.abstract: Hydropower plays a critical role in combating climate change while offering significant socio-economic and environmental benefits. However, realizing these benefits in the South Asian Himalayas requires careful integration of environmental and social considerations into hydropower development. We synthesized findings from 204 studies to examine the key challenges associated with hydropower projects in the region, with particular attention to climate change impacts, and nexus approach that integrates water, energy, and food systems. Even though climate change has significantly altered river flow regimes and heightened the risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), the study finds that the integration of robust climate risk assessments across the region remains in its infancy and is often regarded as unnecessary. Sedimentation, driven by Himalayan geology, and climate-induced erosion, reduces reservoir capacity and damage turbines with studies indicating up to 25% capacity loss in projects like Kulekhani, Nepal due to inadequate sediment management. Despite the benefits hydropower has offered to the nation and community, social issues such as displacement and compensation, gender and social inclusion concerns, weak governance, and inadequate stakeholder engagements are evident in the SAH region. Furthermore, the review finds that hydropower development in the Himalayas creates intricate trade-offs across water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus, such as reduced downstream sediment affecting agriculture and food security, and synergies like irrigation benefits. This study underscores that sustainable hydropower development in the region requires climate-resilient project designs with GLOFs risk mapping, science-based sediment control to prevent turbine damage and reservoir siltation, inclusive benefit-sharing mechanisms for displaced communities, and WEFE-informed policies to balance energy production with irrigation and ecosystem flows.

Adaptive scaling ecosystem for system transformation: operationalizing solar-based farmer-led irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

2026-03-18T06:09:10Z

dc.title: Adaptive scaling ecosystem for system transformation: operationalizing solar-based farmer-led irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa dc.contributor.author: Minh, Thai Thi; Schmitter, Petra S. dcterms.abstract: Calls for greater conceptual clarity on how to scale innovation for food-system transformation are increasing. We develop an Adaptive Scaling Ecosystem (ASEco)–a framework that integrates system-based scaling with innovation-ecosystem thinking to enable system change. ASEco conceptualizes scaling as a dynamic, interconnected process organized around four functions—niche, reach, accelerate, transform—and guided by four principles of adaptability, reflectiveness, inclusiveness, and flexibility. It foregrounds subsystem interactions, contextual fit, and multi-layered cross-scale networks embedded in institutional and governance arrangements. ASEco enables multiple pathways that combine niche development, market reach, the acceleration of enabling environments, and transformative shifts in rules and norms. It translates food-system complexity into actionable levers by clarifying ecosystem boundaries, aligning actor networks with scaling functions, and fostering continuous adaptation through feedback and coevolution, thereby managing non-linear dynamics and trade-offs. In operationalizing ASEco, research-for-development organizations act as boundary spanners that orchestrate, drive, and facilitate adaptive scaling by aligning incentives, building trust, and enabling inclusive multistakeholder collaboration. We ground the framework in solar-based farmer-led irrigation development (SFLID) in sub-Saharan Africa to illustrate how evolving boundaries, agility, and adaptability support scaling that contributes to sustainable, cleaner food-system transformation. ASEco offers a practical, adaptable approach for designing, steering, and learning from adaptive scaling processes in complex food systems. cg.contributor.initiative: Mixed Farming Systems cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Farming; Scaling for Impact

Exploring microbial diversity, antibiotic resistance, and their environmental drivers in urban and peri-urban riverbed sediments of sub-tropical river basins

2026-03-18T06:08:53Z

dc.title: Exploring microbial diversity, antibiotic resistance, and their environmental drivers in urban and peri-urban riverbed sediments of sub-tropical river basins dc.contributor.author: Pandey, N. K.; Simon, M.; Vishwakarma, R. K.; Sen, S.; Joshi, H.; Yadav, Shweta; Mateo-Sagasta, Javier; Jampani, Mahesh; Sikka, Alok; Hazra, S. dcterms.abstract: Rivers travel through diverse landscapes and carry natural and anthropogenic materials, which affect the dynamics of the biological and physicochemical properties of the river and riverbed sediments. Anthropological activities such as urbanization and industrialization release vast amounts of contaminants that can alter a river’s ecology and contribute to the emergence of drug resistance. This study explores two subtropical river basins in India, focusing on the main river Song (flowing through a peri-urban sub-basin) and joined by its tributaries, viz. Rispana, Bindal, and Suswa (flowing through a heavily urbanized sub-basin). A total of 27 sediment samples were collected from 9 sites in winter, summer, and monsoon seasons of the year 2024 to explore microbial diversity, antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB), physicochemical properties, antibiotic residues, and heavy metal concentrations. Results highlight that heavily urbanized sub-basins sediments carry more contaminants and a high load of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, ESKAPE pathogen genera, and Enterobacterales in comparison to periurban river basins. However, both sub-basins predominantly carry the bacterial phyla Pseudomonadota and Bacillota, including pathogenic genera such as Pseudomonas, Staphylococcus, and Acinetobacter. Our analysis demonstrated that elevated concentrations of heavy metals and antibiotics are closely associated with increased levels of antimicrobial resistance. Overall, this study provided comparative insights into the peri-urban and heavily urbanized sub-basin river sediments microbiome, antibiogram, and their drivers. The results and findings of this study may help to develop a basic framework of policy recommendations for better managing subtropical river basins in urbanized areas. cg.contributor.initiative: One Health cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods

Mapping of potential storages and rainwater harvesting sites in arid region of Indus Basin using analytical hierarchy technique

2026-03-18T06:08:43Z

dc.title: Mapping of potential storages and rainwater harvesting sites in arid region of Indus Basin using analytical hierarchy technique dc.contributor.author: Hafeez, Mohsin; Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Liaqat, Umar Waqas; Amin, M.; Usman, M. dcterms.abstract: Water, an essential element for rainwater harvesting (RWH), plays a pivotal role in addressing water scarcity and enhancing community resilience. This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of water storage in the Pothowar region, which spans approximately 23,204 square kilometers across five districts: Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Attock, and Jhelum. The objective was to assess the availability, demand, and utilization of water reservoirs using GIS technology to identify potential storage sites. The study utilized advanced tools, starting with the acquisition of a 12.5 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from ALOS PALSAR, followed by data refinement using the Fill tool. Flow direction analysis and watershed delineation in ArcGIS 10.8.2 revealed 6,508 sub-watersheds and outlets. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model was employed to assign weights to factors such as soil, land use, rainfall, stream order, drainage density, and slope, enabling the classification of suitability classes. The results indicated that 41% of the region was classified as moderately suitable, with 3.79% rated as very highly suitable, 44.81% as highly suitable, and 10.40% as not suitable. Specific mini dam sites were proposed based on suitability, with 121 outlets classified as very highly suitable, 3,655 as highly suitable, 2,188 as moderately suitable, and 690 as not suitable. This comprehensive analysis enhances the understanding of the region’s hydrological dynamics, supporting informed decision-making for sustainable water resource management aligned with both developmental and environmental objectives. By combining advanced geospatial tools and a collaborative approach, this study offers a cutting-edge framework for regional water resource management. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

A critical synthesis of remote sensing and machine learning approaches for climate hazard impact on crop yield

2026-03-05T06:44:05Z

dc.title: A critical synthesis of remote sensing and machine learning approaches for climate hazard impact on crop yield dc.contributor.author: Obahoundje, Salomon; Tilahun, Seifu A.; Zemadim, Birhanu; Schmitter, Petra S. dcterms.abstract: This review critically assesses the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms and remote sensing (RS) products in detecting and predicting climate hazards, as well as their impacts on crop yields. Using the PRISMA approach, it examines 177 studies on climate hazards and 197 on RS–ML applications in crop yield modeling. Research is most concentrated in Asia, followed by Africa and the Americas, with agricultural drought emerging as the most frequently studied hazard. Statistical approaches, such as the coefficient of variation, remain the dominant methods for analyzing climate variability. For drought detection, Random Forest (RF) was the most used ML algorithm (17%), followed by Support Vector Machines (SVM, 11%), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN, 8%), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS, 5%), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost, 5%). For drought impacts on crop productivity, RF dominated (39%) followed by Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO, 11%), while for climate variability impacts, RF (21%) led alongside SVM (10%), ANN (9%), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) (8%), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) (8%), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) (7%). Asia leads in the integration of advanced ML/DL techniques. In contrast, due to infrastructure and data limitations, Africa predominantly employs simpler and more interpretable models. RS products, namely MODIS, TRMM, CHIRPS, and ERA5, are widely used due to their accessibility. However, their limited spatial resolution restricts their effectiveness. The research gaps include a limited investigation at the sub-national level, insufficient ground-truth validation, and inadequate monitoring of complex, compounding hazards like drought–flood–heatwave interactions. Moreover, the research remains skewed toward economically dominant crops (maize, cotton, and soybeans, neglecting marginal crops (cocoa, cashew, cassava, plantain, and coffee) critical to food-insecure regions. The review recommends hybrid modeling frameworks integrating process-based and data-driven methods, broader spatial and crop coverage, standardized protocols, and real-time, microclimate-aware monitoring systems, for improving model reliability and applicability in underrepresented, data-scarce regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, thereby strengthening climate-resilient agriculture and global food security. cg.contributor.initiative: Excellence in Agronomy cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Farming

Remote sensing and machine learning integration to detect and forecast floods in Lodwar Town, Turkwel Basin, Kenya

2026-03-05T06:44:20Z

dc.title: Remote sensing and machine learning integration to detect and forecast floods in Lodwar Town, Turkwel Basin, Kenya dc.contributor.author: Lakew, Haileyesus Belay; Taye, Meron Teferi; Lino, O.; Dyer, E. dcterms.abstract: Reliable flood monitoring and prediction remain a challenge in data-scarce regions, particularly in arid and semi-arid environments. This study explores the integration of remote sensing data and machine learning techniques to improve flood detection and early warning capabilities in Lodwar Town of the Turkwel Basin, Kenya. This depended on finding a relationship between daily rainfall and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). Among multiple rainfall products evaluated, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) was selected due to its fine spatial resolution and performance. Daily NDWI time series derived from Aqua MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery were used as a proxy for water accumulation and flood indicators. A python-based Decision Tree Regressor (DTR) model was trained using the daily CHIRPS rainfall data with various lag times, along with auxiliary meteorological variables including relative humidity, wind speed, and mean temperature for the period from 2002 to 2024 to predict NDWI of Lodwar Town. The machine learning model substantially improved the correlation between rainfall and NDWI, raising the correlation coefficient by 25%. Spatial analysis of rainfall-NDWI correlation revealed that areas in the west, northwest, and southwest of Lodwar Town, with elevations between 508 m and 648 m have high correlation. Rainfall in these regions can serve as signal for potential rapid flooding with 0-day lag-time in Lodwar Town situated at an elevation of approximately 500 m. These areas are not necessarily the primary high rainfall sources, rather they act as signal zones for floods of Lodwar Town that can provide flood early warning information. The proposed methodology in this study can offer a practical approach to anticipatory action and flood risk reduction for vulnerable communities in remote regions with no or limited hydrometeorological stations.

Nexus governance in practice: a stakeholder-driven framework for groundwater sustainability in Barahathawa Municipality, Madhesh Province

2026-03-18T06:11:38Z

dc.title: Nexus governance in practice: a stakeholder-driven framework for groundwater sustainability in Barahathawa Municipality, Madhesh Province dc.contributor.author: KC, S.; KC, Sumitra; Pokhrel, A.; Paudel, S.; Mishra, Anuj; Buchy, Marlene; Khadka, Manohara; Aryal, Anil dcterms.abstract: Groundwater, a critical resource in the water-food-energy-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus, underpins food security and livelihoods globally and regionally. This study applies a contextualized framework – co-developed with local stakeholders – to assess groundwater governance in Barahathawa Municipality, Madhesh Province of Nepal, where 85% of irrigation and domestic needs rely on this resource. The framework evaluates 32 indicators across technical, legal and institutional, cross-sector policy, and operational dimensions, synthesizing findings into a Groundwater Governance Index (GGI). Results reveal a transitional governance system (GGI: 1.03, “early acceptable” stage) with fragmented technical capacity (midway between non-existent and basic) due to unmonitored extraction, unmapped recharge zones, and sparse hydrogeological data. Legal and institutional gaps such as absence of permitting systems, unenforced pollution controls, and inequitable access highlight systemic risks to sustainability. Cross-sector coordination (“acceptable” state) and operational transparency (initial “acceptable” state) reflect growing synergies between agriculture, urban planning, and community actors, yet marginalized groups remain underrepresented. Lens-based analysis underscores lagging “state” governance relative to the “community” and “market” lens, necessitating prioritized investments in participatory hydrogeological mapping, localized regulations, and inclusive decision-making. The framework guides the management of competing needs by offering practical solutions such as better irrigation practices, gender-sensitive budgeting, and partnerships with local drillers. By bridging technical, legal, and social gaps, this approach offers a replicable model for agrarian-urbanizing regions in the western Terai belt of the country, emphasizing adaptive governance, stakeholder synergy, and data-driven policies to balance socio-economic development with groundwater resilience in the face of climate and demographic pressures. cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Potential impacts of carbon pricing on vegetable cold chains

2026-01-27T08:24:02Z

dc.title: Potential impacts of carbon pricing on vegetable cold chains dc.contributor.author: Alegbeleye, Oluwadara; Kassie, G. T.; Ndour, A.; Adamseged, Muluken; Athukorala, Aruni dcterms.abstract: The urgent need to address climate change has prompted growing interest in carbon pricing mechanisms as tools for reducing emissions in food systems. This review explores how carbon pricing may affect vegetable cold chains, which rely on energy-intensive, temperature-controlled networks essential for preserving produce quality and limiting food loss. While carbon pricing can serve as an incentive for adopting energy-efficient technologies, renewable energy, and sustainable logistics practices, its implementation can also trigger adverse consequences. These include increased operational costs, potential disruptions to supply chains, food affordability challenges, and public health concerns, particularly for vulnerable populations. Drawing on global evidence, this paper discusses both the enabling conditions for carbon pricing (when applied to vegetable cold chains or relevant stages within them) to deliver environmental benefits and the risks of socio-economic trade-offs, including potential impacts on labour, equity, and food security. Mitigation strategies, such as revenue recycling, targeted subsidies, and hybrid policy designs, are also discussed. Overall, the paper emphasizes the need for carefully designed carbon pricing mechanisms tailored to the structure of vegetable cold chains to ensure a just and effective transition to low-carbon food systems. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Multifunctional Landscapes

Transforming agricultural water management through the water–energy–food nexus: trends, opportunities, barriers and solutions

2025-12-08T09:54:28Z

dc.title: Transforming agricultural water management through the water–energy–food nexus: trends, opportunities, barriers and solutions dc.contributor.author: Nhamo, L.; Taguta, C.; Mpandeli, S.; Dirwai, Tinashe Lindel; Liphadzi, S.; Mabhaudhi, T. dcterms.abstract: Agricultural water management (AWM) is increasingly transitioning towards transformative thinking, where interconnected sectors, including water, energy and food, are managed holistically. Trends point towards cross-sectoral and harmonised strategies to optimise water use efficiency and productivity, integrate renewable energy, promote sustainable food production and strengthen ecological resilience while considering economic incentives for farmers. However, the main challenge of AWM has been managing water and energy for food production amidst the scarcity, degradation and depletion of water resources. This requires a shift from the current AWM practices, which focus on single-factor productivity and resource use efficiency at the expense of equity, conservation, consumption and the circular economy. This entails reducing water consumption, increasing environmental flows, minimising waste and reusing resources in agriculture. This systematic review identifies pathways to transition traditional AWM practices to a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus-informed system that is equitable, inclusive, integrated and resilient, balancing the socio-ecological systems. This review establishes the interlinkages of WEF resources as drivers of resource use efficiency in sustainable crop production, highlighting the trends, opportunities, barriers and solutions of a smart AWM system. The recommendations propose shifting from the current production-centric AWM to one that is transformative, equitable, sustainable and resilient for human and natural systems. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Farming

Unraveling the phenomenon of supply‐demand feedback in agricultural water interventions

2026-03-05T06:44:12Z

dc.title: Unraveling the phenomenon of supply‐demand feedback in agricultural water interventions dc.contributor.author: Alam, Faiz; McClain, M. E.; Sikka, Alok; Sena, Dipaka Ranjan; Pande, S. dcterms.abstract: The Agricultural water interventions can trigger human-water feedback, including unintended supply demand feedback—where increased water availability drives greater water use. In the Kamadhiya catchment, India, the introduction of check dams (CDs) led to a shift toward more water-intensive crops like cotton and wheat. This study formulates and tests hypotheses to understand these dynamics using an agent-based model (ABM) that integrates a spatially explicit hydrological model with a farmer behavior module. The ABM simulates 38,447 farmers using the RANAS behavioral framework, based on household surveys and observed data. Model results confirm the hypothesized feedback: increased water from CDs led to an 11.9% rise in cotton and 36.1% in wheat areas, boosting incomes and increasing adoption of drip and borewell irrigation, particularly near CDs. While drip irrigation systems improve water efficiency and post-monsoon groundwater levels, the saved water enables further wheat expansion—triggering a second supply demand feedback loop. These changes are spatially concentrated near CDs, exacerbating within-catchment disparities. Overall, about 54% of the additional recharge is used for irrigation expansion, lowering groundwater levels by 1.0 m and reducing the net benefit of recharge interventions. These findings underscore the need to critically understand human-water feedback and value of ABM as a tool to support more informed planning by offering strategies that mitigate negative externalities. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Global spatially explicit crop water consumption shows an overall increase of 9% for 46 agricultural crops from 2010 to 2020

2026-03-18T06:13:58Z

dc.title: Global spatially explicit crop water consumption shows an overall increase of 9% for 46 agricultural crops from 2010 to 2020 dc.contributor.author: Chukalla, A. D.; Mekonnen, M. M.; Gunathilake, Dahami; Wolkeba, F. T.; Gunasekara, Bhawani; Vanham, Davy dcterms.abstract: Agricultural crop production is the largest water user worldwide. Here we compute the blue and green water consumption (WC) of global crop production at 5 arcminutes (~10 km at the equator) for the year 2020, differentiating between 46 crops, using the most recent Spatial Production Allocation Model 2020 crop data. Total crop WC amounts to 6,668 km3, or 6,817 km3 including the flooding phase of paddy rice, of which green WC amounts to 5,588 km3 and blue WC to 1,080 km3 (increasing to 1,228 km3 with paddy flooding). Over a period of 20 years, five major crops increased in total WC by 23–82%. For 2010–2020, global total crop WC increased by 9% from 6,270 km3 (with paddy flooding). Alongside observed increases in cropland area, higher crop WC puts additional pressure on limited water resources. cg.contributor.initiative: Foresight cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Impacts of different land and water management interventions on runoff and sediment yield under climate change: a case study from the Bale Eco-Region, Ethiopia

2026-03-18T06:12:48Z

dc.title: Impacts of different land and water management interventions on runoff and sediment yield under climate change: a case study from the Bale Eco-Region, Ethiopia dc.contributor.author: Tarkegn, T. G.; Mekuria, Wolde; Ray, R. L.; Tefera, G. W.; van Oel, P. R.; Chukalla, A. D.; Adgo, E.; Worqlul, A. W.; Dile, Y. T.; Seid, Abdulkarim; Bantider, A.; Berhanu, D.; Legese, G.; Ayele, G.; Haileslassie, Amare dcterms.abstract: This study evaluated the impacts of land and water management (LWM) intervention scenarios on runoff and sediment yield (SY) in Ethiopia’s Bale Eco-Region (BER) under changing climate conditions. The scenarios analyzed include implementing conservation measures in non-cultivated lands (Scenario 1), cultivated lands (Scenario 2), and a combination of both (Scenario 3). These were compared against a Reference Scenario (i.e., no LWM interventions). The revised Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model was applied for baseline (1992–2020), and midcentury (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100) periods under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate projections. Model calibration (2001–2009) and validation (1995–2000) for streamflow and sediment parameters confirmed SWAT+ suitability for the BER. Results indicate that, under the Reference Scenario, runoff and SY are projected rise by 12.8–53.7% and 16–60.6%, respectively, in future periods. Scenario 3, followed by Scenario 1, provided the greatest reductions in average areal runoff and SY. This study shows that conserving non-cultivated lands through LWM practices significantly reduces runoff and sediment yield. To effectively mitigate these impacts under changing climates, conservation should prioritize both cultivated and non-cultivated lands. The presented framework offers a transferable approach for evaluating LWM strategies in regions with comparable environmental conditions. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Scaling for Impact

Assessment of combined nutrients and pesticides grey water footprint in a Sub-Saharan African lake catchment

2026-03-05T06:44:12Z

dc.title: Assessment of combined nutrients and pesticides grey water footprint in a Sub-Saharan African lake catchment dc.contributor.author: Onyango, J.; Simaika, John; Kitaka, N.; Irvine, K. dcterms.abstract: Water scarcity and pollution are pressing challenges in agricultural catchments. This study quantified the Grey Water Footprint (GWF) of nutrients and pesticide residues in the Lake Naivasha catchment, Kenya, and assessed spatial patterns of pollution stress. Mean daily discharge ranged from 0.03 ± 0.01 m3 s−1 at Little Gilgil (G2) to 2.95 ± 1.78 m3 s−1 at Malewa Highway Bridge (M5). The highest nutrient-related GWF was recorded for total phosphorus at Karati (K1), 5.3 × 106 ± 1.6 × 106 mm3 year−1, while the lowest values were observed at the downstream Malewa sites (M4 and M5). For pesticides, cyclodienes peaked at K1 with values ranging from 1.59 × 105 ± 3.52 × 104 mm3 year−1 for dieldrin to 81.9 ± 32.7 mm3 year−1 for methoxychlor, while DDT and HCH groups ranged from 0.34 ± 0.08 mm3 year−1 for γ-HCH at Malewa to 3.80 × 106 ± 1.67 × 106 mm3 year−1 for pp-DDT at Karati. The Integrated Grey Water Footprint (IGWF) showed that pesticides dominated pollution stress at most sites, except Karati where phosphorus loads were highest. Grey Water Stress (GWS) exceeded unity (>1) at Karati, indicating that pollutant loads surpassed the river's assimilative capacity, while other sites remained below capacity, ranging from 2 to 4 % at Malewa (M1) to 10–20 % at Little Gilgil (G2). These findings highlight pollution hotspots in low-flow sub-catchments, driven by intensive farming and settlements, and underscore the urgent need for integrated water quality standards and advanced monitoring strategies to safeguard aquatic ecosystems and promote sustainable water management in sub-Saharan Africa. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Multifunctional Landscapes

The global role of bioassessment in policy delivery and decision-making for inland waters

2026-03-05T06:44:36Z

dc.title: The global role of bioassessment in policy delivery and decision-making for inland waters dc.contributor.author: Kelly, M. G.; Free, G.; Simaika, John; Warner, S.; Bruder, A.; Correa-Bedoya, A.; de Oliveira Roque, F.; Eriksen, T. E.; Lento, J.; Macadam, C. R.; Meissner, K.; Moretti, M. S.; Penrose, D.; Stribling, J.; Poikane, S. dcterms.abstract: Bioassessment is necessary to guide the management of freshwater ecosystems and promote sustainable water use. However, many countries either do not have nationally-approved bioassessment systems, or their bioassessment results are not used in water policy decision-making. Despite the importance and urgency of the topic, a global overview of bioassessment and its use in decision-making is missing. In this study, we analyzed survey responses from 341 bioassessment practitioners from 109 countries to examine the role bioassessment plays in freshwater governance. Two thirds of respondents reported that bioassessment was used in their country, with the strength of the link to legislation increasing with per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Bioassessment data generally fulfilled several roles, including following trends over time and developing catchment plans, both significantly linked to increased per capita GDP. Strong relationships with stressors were cited as a strength of bioassessment over other forms of evidence gathering, whilst costs and shortage of trained staff were the most common weaknesses. Governance is key, being the main factor explaining why some countries don’t have bioassessment and enabling its enaction through legislation in others. Initiatives therefore need to focus on creating an “enabling environment” as well as financial and technical aspects. We found synergies between having international agreements and using bioassessment for communication when delivering nationally important roles for bioassessment. By identifying key drivers for using bioassessment in decision making, our study provides recommendations to inform future research, policy and practice. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Multifunctional Landscapes

Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices

2025-10-26T12:56:54Z

dc.title: Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices dc.contributor.author: Guidigan, M. L. G.; Dossou-Yovo, E. R.; Ra-danielson, A. M.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Tapily, A.; Iboko, M. P.; Balogun, A. A. dcterms.abstract: Rice (Oryza sativa) demand in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise by 12 million tonnes between 2021 and 2026. However, climate change poses a significant challenge to achieving rice self-sufficiency in the region. This study assessed the impact of climate change on rice yield and evaluated management practices to reduce associated yield losses in the derived savannah agroecological zone of West Africa. Field experiments were conducted on 22 farmers' fields across two irrigated schemes in central Cote d'Ivoire. Data on soil properties, weather, management practices, and rice yield was used to calibrate and validate the integrated model combining APSIM and ORYZA 2000 model. Future climate impacts were evaluated using bias-corrected data from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (where RCP is representation concentration pathway) scenarios. The model performed satisfactorily, with R2 values between 0.8 and 1, RMSE ranging from 0 to 5 t ha−1, and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency from 0.99 to 1. Projections indicated rice yield reduction of 82% and 77% by 2070–2100, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, compared to the 2019 baseline. Alternative management practices, including manure application at 3 Mg ha−1, rice straw mulching at 3 Mg ha−1, and nitrogen fertilizer at 180 kg ha−1, mitigated yield losses and even increased yield under climate change. These findings suggest that while climate change will substantially reduce irrigated rice yield, implementing improved management practices can enhance rice productivity and support food security in West Africa's derived savannah zone.

Identifying potential for rice expansion in Burkina Faso: integrating EO and climate data for suitability mapping

2026-03-05T06:44:23Z

dc.title: Identifying potential for rice expansion in Burkina Faso: integrating EO and climate data for suitability mapping dc.contributor.author: Meier, J.; Hirner, A.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Hackman, K.; Gessner, U. dcterms.abstract: Over the last years, food security in West Africa has been strongly influenced by increasing weather variability, including rising temperatures, irregular precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme events. These factors threaten traditional rain-fed agriculture, while population growth and urbanization are driving greater demand for rice—a crop increasingly replacing traditional staples. To reduce dependency on imports, West African countries are seeking to expand domestic rice production. Inland valleys and floodplains, due to their high water retention and fertile soils, offer significant but underutilized potential for rice cultivation. To assess the suitability and current extent of rice cropping, we selected Burkina Faso as a representative country in West Africa that exemplifies the challenges outlined above. Inland valleys were delineated using a digital elevation model (SRTM), and rice cropping areas in 2020 were mapped using a random forest classifier applied on Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite time series. The classification was based on temporal-spectral metrics, including vegetation indices such as NDVI and backscatter statistics, and validated against reference samples to assess accuracy. Climatic suitability from 1999 to 2021 was evaluated using ERA5-Land reanalysis data, based on crop growth requirements of rice across different growth stages. Only 0.71% of Burkina Faso’s land is currently used for rice cropping, closely matching national FAO statistics (0.74%) and independent mapping efforts. However, approximately 10% of the national territory consists of inland valleys, which are biophysically suitable for rice cultivation. While the southwestern regions show relatively stable climatic suitability, the central and northern areas are more variable and vulnerable to drought, limiting their long-term potential without irrigation. The integration of climatic suitability and landform-based potential highlights considerable opportunities for expanding rice cultivation in Burkina Faso. This study provides a spatial decision-support framework for policymakers to guide sustainable intensification, reduce import dependency, and adapt agricultural systems to climate change.

Importance of melting water in the Third Pole transboundary fluvial floods

2026-03-18T06:08:05Z

dc.title: Importance of melting water in the Third Pole transboundary fluvial floods dc.contributor.author: Liu, H.; Wang, L.; Chen, D.; Yao, T.; Bashir, A.; Shrestha, M.; Conradt, T.; Nepal, Santosh; Zhou, J.; Li, X.; Li, N.; Liu, R.; Xu, B. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Advancing sustainability through multifunctional landscapes: beyond soil and water conservation

2025-10-26T13:00:45Z

dc.title: Advancing sustainability through multifunctional landscapes: beyond soil and water conservation dc.contributor.author: Kumar, Gopal dcterms.abstract: India, with its vast and diverse landscapes, faces critical challenges of land degradation, biodiversity loss, and climate vulnerability. Transitioning from conventional soil and water conservation efforts to multifunctional landscapes provides an integrated solution by combining conservation, regeneration, wetlands, and agroecology. This article examines India’s experience with watershed programs, their successes and limitations, and highlights the potential of multifunctional landscapes to address complex socio-ecological challenges while enhancing resilience and livelihoods. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Multifunctional Landscapes

Smallholders’ perspectives on sustainable agriculture intensification in Northern Ghana

2026-03-05T06:44:02Z

dc.title: Smallholders’ perspectives on sustainable agriculture intensification in Northern Ghana dc.contributor.author: Boateng, E. N. K.; Atampugre, Gerald; Solis, P.; Mariwah, S.; Mensah, I.; Furst, C.; Nyarko, B. K. dcterms.abstract: In the quest to improve food security for a growing population with minimal environmental impact, assessing smallholders’ perceptions and practices of sustainable agriculture intensification (SAI) is a prerequisite for achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2. However, little empirical evidence exists on smallholders’ perspectives on SAI, especially in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa, where a majority of smallholders are relatively poor and live under harsh climatic conditions. This research assessed smallholders’ perspectives on the practice of SAI in the Guinea Savanna Agro-Ecological Zone. Data was collected from 698 smallholders in the Bongo and Bolgatanga Municipalities based on a cross-sectional design. It was found that smallholders practised moderate SAI and the positive predictors of SAI adoption were age, monthly income, religion, slope, vegetation and water access, while the negative predictors were farm size, land surface temperature, distance to a dam and land tenure. Based on the assessment of perceived external drivers of adoption, it was found that poor groundwater quality, lapses in government policies on agriculture and lack of engagement in group farming hindered the practice of SAI. It is recommended that non-governmental organizations and government agencies for food and agriculture should enhance efforts aimed at reducing barriers and increasing smallholders’ awareness of how SAI supports their livelihood and contributes to achieving SDG 2.

Modeling integrated impacts of agro-hydrological interventions on blue and green water and crop yield in SWAT+

2026-03-05T06:44:05Z

dc.title: Modeling integrated impacts of agro-hydrological interventions on blue and green water and crop yield in SWAT+ dc.contributor.author: Tarkegn, T. G.; van Oel, P. R.; Chukalla, A. D.; Ray, R. L.; Tefera, G. W.; Haileslassie, Amare; Taye, Meron Teferi; Worqlul, A. W.; Adgo, E.; Bantider, A.; Dile, Y. T. dcterms.abstract: Study region: Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia Study focus: This study evaluates integrated impacts of agro-hydrological interventions on blue and green water, and crop yield using SWAT+. The model was calibrated and validated with monthly streamflow data and long-term average maize yield. Assessed interventions included soil/stone bunds, conservation tillage, early and late planting, and fertilizer applications at 100 kg/ha and 200 kg/ha, using historical climate data from 1992–2021. New hydrologic insights: SWAT+ is suitable for simulating hydrology and crop yield in the study area. At areal average scale, early and late planting reduced blue water by 0.3 % while increasing green water flow (GWF) by 0.4 %. Other practices had no discernible effect on blue water or GWF. Green water storage (GWS) increased under early planting (3.3 %) and conservation tillage (0.8 %) but declined with late planting (9.1 %). Crop yield increased with early planting (12.1 %), fertilizer application at 100 kg/ha and 200 kg/ha (16.0 % and 24.5 %, respectively), and the adoption of soil/stone bunds (0.4 %). Conversely, late planting and conservation tillage reduced crop yields. Spatial analysis revealed that intervention effects varied across regions in water and crop outcomes. Certain practices like early planting, increased crop yields but also led to unintended reductions in blue water. These findings highlight the need for integrated, region-specific agro-hydrological strategies to balance agricultural productivity with sustainable water resource management. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Scaling for Impact

Multivariate return period and risk analysis of non-stationary extremes: dynamic drought severity-duration-frequency in India

2026-03-18T06:12:36Z

dc.title: Multivariate return period and risk analysis of non-stationary extremes: dynamic drought severity-duration-frequency in India dc.contributor.author: Sahana, V.; Mondal, A. dcterms.abstract: Under changing environmental conditions, the inclusion of non-stationarity in risk assessment of hydroclimatic extremes provides reliable estimates of quantiles or design levels; however, such assessments are usually limited to univariate analysis. A multivariate non-stationary framework is capable of considering the interdependencies between multiple characteristics of such extreme events. This study offers a new non-stationary multivariate risk assessment framework based on the concepts of Expected Number of Events (ENE) and Expected Waiting Time (EWT) that have worked well in the recent past for return level estimates of univariate extremes under non-stationarity. The proposed framework is first demonstrated on synthetically generated multi-attribute datasets to prove its effectiveness for both increasing and decreasing trends in extremes. Further, real-world applicability of the approach is presented for multivariate non-stationary drought risk assessment in India, where dynamic copulas are used to capture the joint transient behaviour of drought severity and duration. The design severity and duration for any given return period increases (decreases) for positive (negative) trend in drought attributes, implying underestimation (overestimation) of risk by the stationarity approach. Globally, changes in characteristics of hydroclimatic extreme events are increasingly reported, and such changes are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. The proposed framework considers time-varying nature of multiple characteristics for risk assessment of such extremes, and can aide in engineering design and environment management.

Water footprints of irrigated crops in the Chirakchi Watershed, Uzbekistan

2025-12-08T10:29:22Z

dc.title: Water footprints of irrigated crops in the Chirakchi Watershed, Uzbekistan dc.contributor.author: Worqlul, A. W.; Akramkhanov, A.; Gafurov, Zafar dcterms.abstract: The water footprint of crops (WFP) is crucial to understand how efficiently water is used in a farming system. This study evaluated the green and blue water footprints of selected crops in the Chirakchi Watershed, located in southern Uzbekistan. The sustainability of water use in the region’s agriculture is a growing concern due to its arid climate and increasing reliance on irrigation. Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of crop water use is essential for improving productivity and ensuring long-term water resource sustainability. The study evaluates the sustainability of water use in the region agricultural practices by integrating two biophysical simulation models, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender), to assess water consumption patterns of cotton, wheat, carrot, and potato between 2000 and 2023. The result of the study indicated a significant variation in water use among the selected crops, with cotton water use being the highest among the selected crops. The findings also revealed a declining trend in rainfall (green water) and increasing dependence on irrigation (blue water), particularly for cotton and wheat. This pattern highlights the water-intensive nature of the region's dominant cropping system. These trends are alarming, given the region's arid climate and increasing water scarcity driven by climate change. The study highlights the urgent need for improved irrigation efficiency and the adoption of water-saving practices, such as mulching or precision irrigation, to mitigate unsustainable water consumption. This research offers valuable insights into improving water productivity and can inform policy and management strategies in Uzbekistan's agricultural sector. cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Domestic wastewater treatment and agricultural reuse progress and reporting challenges

2026-03-18T06:08:16Z

dc.title: Domestic wastewater treatment and agricultural reuse progress and reporting challenges dc.contributor.author: Qadir, M.; Drechsel, Pay; Jones, E. R. dcterms.abstract: Safely treated wastewater is critical to water-related sustainable development. With a focus on the domestic wastewater component of SDG 6.3, this study synthesized the latest country-level data on domestic wastewater generation and treatment, aggregated by geographic regions and income classifications, and subsequently addressed the challenges for monitoring safe water reuse (wastewater use). The data synthesis reveals that the domestic sector generates 267.5 billion m3 yr− 1 of wastewater globally, of which 63% (168.8 billion m3 yr− 1) is collected in sewers and septic tanks, and 54.7% (146.3 billion m3 yr− 1) is treated. In comparison, 45.3% (121.2 billion m3 yr− 1) is released to the environment in untreated form, either uncollected (98.7 billion m3 yr− 1) or collected but untreated (22.5 billion m3 yr− 1). Although these data, compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO), show progress in view of SDG 6.3.1, the proportion of safely treated wastewater remains strongly uneven between geographic regions and income groups. On the water reuse front, while there is significant progress in industrial (e.g. China) and agricultural (e.g. Egypt) reuse of treated wastewater, untreated water reuse remains a dilemma that requires special attention where it is most common, i.e., in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Considerable challenges in assessing the state-of-affairs remain because of its terminology, informal status and the limited availability (and usefulness) of reported reuse volumes or areas for WHO’s health-based targets. cg.contributor.initiative: Resilient Cities cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Food Frontiers and Security

Insight for sustainable supplemental irrigation development for cocoa in changing Ghana’s agroforestry landscapes

2026-03-18T06:13:54Z

dc.title: Insight for sustainable supplemental irrigation development for cocoa in changing Ghana’s agroforestry landscapes dc.contributor.author: Tilahun, Seifu A.; Amponsah, Andoh; Atampugre, Gerald; Zemadim, Birhanu; Dembélé, Moctar; Darko, S.; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe; Cofie, Olufunke O. dcterms.abstract: Cocoa production in Ghana faces challenges from climate change and land use dynamics, necessitating sustainable intensification through supplemental irrigation. However, the availability of water resources for irrigation remains underexplored in Ghana’s agroforestry landscapes. This study assesses the potential of water resources for irrigation and impacts of land use and climate changes in the moist semi-deciduous agroforestry-dominated Upper Offin basin. Using Landsat images, the study analyzed land use patterns, hydro-climatic trends (1981–2022), and water balance based on rainfall and evapotranspiration. Findings reveal that streamflow represents only 10% of average annual rainfall (1333 mm), with subsurface flow predominating. Annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) accounts for 85% of rainfall, while deep percolation offers additional water potential. Shallow groundwater could irrigate 10% of the area during the 5-month dry season, doubling with deep percolation. Land use changes threaten this potential, as forest areas declined while cropland and grassland expanded (2008–2021), associated highly with the alteration of water balance components. Although rainfall remained stable, rising temperatures could increase cocoa water demand. AET declined over time, correlating with FAO-WaPOR data, while streamflow increased during the observed period (1986–2012). The study recommends groundwater supplemental irrigation systems for sustainable cocoa farming in Ghana and similar agroforestry regions, addressing climate and land use challenges effectively. cg.contributor.initiative: West and Central African Food Systems Transformation cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Scaling for Impact

What does a climate-resilient rural water supply system look like? An interdisciplinary approach to climate resilience mapping in Nepal

2025-10-26T13:00:44Z

dc.title: What does a climate-resilient rural water supply system look like? An interdisciplinary approach to climate resilience mapping in Nepal dc.contributor.author: Nepal, Santosh; Aksha, S. K.; Pradhananga, Saurav; Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, R. N.; Shrestha, S.; Shrestha, P. dcterms.abstract: Climate change significantly affects the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services, especially in rural areas of developing countries like Nepal. Erratic rainfall, extreme precipitation, and rising temperatures are key challenges impacting water and sanitation, making these systems less resilient to a changing climate. Understanding the importance of climate-resilient WASH systems enables local authorities to assess and improve them through targeted interventions. In this research, we examined 180 rural water supply systems (RWSS) of Dailekh district located in the middle hills of Western Nepal and mapped their resilience across five domains. The domains include community capital, environment, infrastructure, institutional support and governance, and WASH management of the systems. The results show that 6% of the RWSS in the district have very low resilience, whereas only 11% have very high resilience. Most systems (76%) are classified as very low to medium-resilient systems, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced efforts to strengthen RWSS against the impact of climate change. Among the five domains assessed, institutional support and governance systems emerged as the weakest, closely followed by WASH management. In contrast, community capital stands out as the strongest domain across all surveyed systems. This article presents a flexible indicator-based approach for mapping the resilience of WASH systems in Nepal. This approach can be adapted to other areas of natural resource management by customizing indicators and domains tailored to local social-ecological contexts.

Hydrological implications of supplemental irrigation in cocoa production using SWAT model: insights from the Upper Offin Sub-Basin, Ghana

2025-12-08T10:29:22Z

dc.title: Hydrological implications of supplemental irrigation in cocoa production using SWAT model: insights from the Upper Offin Sub-Basin, Ghana dc.contributor.author: Assefa, T. T.; Gbodji, Kekeli Kofi; Atampugre, Gerald; Loh, Y. S. A.; Bayissa, Y.; Tilahun, Seifu A. dcterms.abstract: The cocoa production in Ghana, largely reliant on rainfall and undertaken by smallholder farmers, is increasingly endangered by climate change-induced water scarcity. Although supplemental irrigation has been posited as an adaptive measure, its hydrological impacts remain understudied. This current study seeks to bridge this knowledge gap by employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the hydrological and water resource implications of supplemental irrigation within the Upper Offin sub-basin of Ghana. High-resolution spatial data and field survey inputs were used to model dry period baseline and irrigation scenarios for cocoa farms with gentle slopes (2%). The results reveal that supplemental irrigation from the shallow aquifer can sustainably support irrigation for up to 5% of the cocoa area (4760 ha) without adversely affecting groundwater flow. Extending irrigation to 30% of the cocoa area (28,540 ha) is feasible with minimal reduction in catchment water yield. This study’s novelty lies in integrating high-resolution data with localized management practices to provide actionable insights for balancing cocoa productivity and water sustainability. The findings offer practical recommendations for policymakers, emphasizing that through solar-powered irrigation the shallow groundwater is a pathway to enhance climate resilience of cocoa productivity. cg.contributor.initiative: West and Central African Food Systems Transformation; Excellence in Agronomy

Measuring how water‐related policies of the Global South consider gender: insights from trialling a new policy gender index in Nepal

2025-12-08T09:54:28Z

dc.title: Measuring how water‐related policies of the Global South consider gender: insights from trialling a new policy gender index in Nepal dc.contributor.author: Cuddy, S. M.; Koirala, Sanju; Wahid, S.; Penton, D. J. dcterms.abstract: This paper supports policymakers to consider how well their water‐related policies respond to gender roles, norms and relations. By braiding the latest philosophies on gender mainstreaming with Integrated Water Resources Management and Feminist Policy Analysis principles, we describe a Multi‐Dimensional Index of Gender in Water Policy (MDI‐GWP) to measure how gender is captured in water‐related policy. The index enables the motivated policy actor to produce well‐crafted and feasible recommendations to reform policies. When we trialled MDI‐GWP on 16 of Nepalʼs federal water‐related policies and acts, the multi‐dimensional index tracked gender policy developments over the past 30 years, identified areas where policymakers could further consider gender, and revealed differences in gender application between sectors. We included water resources management (WRM), agriculture, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sectors. In Nepalʼs case, agriculture and WASH policies are on an improving trajectory for gender equity, while WRM policy has rebounded to the gender blind. We expect that MDI‐GWP is simple enough to apply in other countries, yet meaningful enough to identify opportunities to improve gender in policies and achieve better outcomes.

Insights into the potential of water conservation in irrigated agriculture: a case study from the arid Mediterranean highlands

2026-03-18T06:08:15Z

dc.title: Insights into the potential of water conservation in irrigated agriculture: a case study from the arid Mediterranean highlands dc.contributor.author: Amdar, Nafn; Anwar, A.; Elmahdi, A.; Al‑Bakri, J.; Jewitt, G.; Mul, M. dcterms.abstract: Jordan’s Amman-Zarqa (AZ) basin faces increasing water scarcity due to increasing demands and persistent groundwater over-abstractions for irrigation. To address this issue, water conservation has been set as a national strategy, and several initiatives aiming to conserve water in irrigated agriculture have been implemented in the basin’s highlands. This study evaluates the impact of water conservation technologies (WCTs) on irrigation water savings in the AZ basin highlands. Monthly data on irrigation application were collected from 22 farms over three crop seasons (2019–2022) for four dominant orchards. Farm-scale water savings were calculated and projected to the basin scale under two scenarios: a sustainability scenario aligning groundwater abstraction with irrigation needs under WCTs and an economic scenario expanding irrigated areas using the saved water. Results show that irrigation efficiency before the influence of WCTs was below 55%, with farmers applying an average of 1277 mm/year. After implementing WCTs and farmers fine-tuning their irrigation practices, irrigation application decreased to an average of 795 mm/year, resulting in 38% water savings. Projecting these savings basin-wide, WCTs could conserve 44 Mm3/year of water under the sustainability scenario. The results provide a solid basis for informing water conservation targets in this region. However, successful water conservation using WCTs depends on farmer-led testing to ensure reduced irrigation does not compromise crop yields. Pilot programs supported by trusted technical advice through farmer field schools and appropriate incentives can achieve sustainable water conservation in this region. Concurrently, monitoring is required to regulate irrigation expansion as it could undermine water savings.

Projections of precipitation and temperature changes in the Neelam River Basin, western Himalaya: a CMIP6-based assessment under shared socioeconomic pathways

2025-12-02T10:59:51Z

dc.title: Projections of precipitation and temperature changes in the Neelam River Basin, western Himalaya: a CMIP6-based assessment under shared socioeconomic pathways dc.contributor.author: Iqbal, W.; Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Anjum, M. N.; Amin, M.; Hussain, S. dcterms.abstract: This study assessed the past and future precipitation and temperature changes in the Neelam River basin, which is located in the western Himalayas. The projections of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to analyze the future climate change in the basin. The delta change method was used for the bias correction of the GCMs. The anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation for the near future (2021–2050) were computed under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) relative to the baseline period (1985‒2014). The Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used to assess the significance of temperature and precipitation trends, and the Theil-Sen (TS) slope estimator was used to examine the slope of the trends. According to projections made under all SSPs, the average annual precipitation may decrease in the future. The possible reduction of precipitation varies between − 4.56% (under SSP2-4.5) and − 4.77% (under SSP5-8.5). All SSPs showed a significant decrease in future spring precipitation, with rates of -0.49 mm/year, -6.21 mm/year, and − 4.74 mm/year under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Under all SSPs, both the minimum temperature (TMin) and maximum temperature (TMax) exhibited significant increases, with the most notable increase in annual TMin under SSP5-8.5, at a rate of 0.07 °C/year. The projected changes in precipitation and temperature may result in more frequent and severe droughts, which would negatively affect the ecosystem, crop production, and hydropower generation in Pakistan. This study provides critical insights for policymakers to devise targeted adaptation and mitigation measures for the Neelam River basin to address the impacts of climate change. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Incorporating dynamic crop area in hydrological model to address interannual variability in water withdrawal and implication of sustainable water management

2026-03-05T06:44:19Z

dc.title: Incorporating dynamic crop area in hydrological model to address interannual variability in water withdrawal and implication of sustainable water management dc.contributor.author: Umer, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Gopalan, S. P.; Ali, Zeshan; Oki, T. dcterms.abstract: Water security assessments are critical for policymakers in agriculture-dominated regions, where water demand and withdrawals continuously change due to crop area variations driven by farmers’ decisions. However, hydrological models often assume fixed crop areas, resulting in unrealistic estimates of water demand, withdrawals, and related scarcity. This study investigates the impact of interannual variations in crop areas on agricultural water withdrawals within the Indus River Basin in Pakistan, by incorporating dynamic crop area based on hydro-meteorological factors in the H08 hydrological model. Data analysis revealed a strong lagged correlation between river water availability and crop areas, highlighting river flow as a primary driver of farmers’ crop area decisions, followed by rainfall with a moderate correlation. Based on these findings, three simulation cases were tested for altering crop areas: a fixed crop area case (where crop area remains unchanged), a rain-based case (crop area changes in response to previous years’ rainfall), and a river-based case (crop area changes based on previous years’ river water availability). The results were compared with observed withdrawals, and the river-based case outperformed others across all studied performance indices (MAE, RMSE, R2), highlighting the importance of river flows in incorporating crop area adjustments. Although moderately effective, the rain-based case also captured some interannual variability. In contrast, the fixed crop area case exhibited the weakest performance, emphasizing the need to incorporate dynamic crop area adjustments in hydrological assessments. This approach offers policymakers more accurate assessments to better address water shortages, support sustainable water management, and improve crop planning strategies. cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Enhancing rice water productivity: insights from crop water needs and irrigation in Pakistan

2026-03-18T06:09:10Z

dc.title: Enhancing rice water productivity: insights from crop water needs and irrigation in Pakistan dc.contributor.author: Akbar, G.; Sadozai, N. L.; Ashraf, Muhammad dcterms.abstract: Excessive irrigation significantly reduces rice (Oryza sativa L.) water productivity in Pakistan. This study evaluated crop water requirements, irrigation trends and water productivity across Pakistan's rice-growing regions. Field data on crop yield, soil characteristics, irrigation practices and 10 years of weather data were collected from 11 districts across four provinces. The FAO AquaCrop model was used to assess crop water requirements (evapotranspiration, ET), the root zone water balance and water productivity. The crop water requirements ranged from 787 to 1151 mm, while irrigation consistently exceeded these needs by 95% to 123%. The irrigation water productivity (WPi) ranged from 0.09 to 0.19 kg/m3, and the evapotranspiration (ET) water productivity (WPet) ranged from 0.20 to 0.41 kg/m3. Excessive irrigation, 2 to 3 times the actual crop water needs, is attributed to traditional practices, a lack of knowledge and suboptimal irrigation schedules. Optimizing irrigation scheduling, adopting advanced technologies, and using high-yielding, drought-tolerant rice varieties could reduce water losses and improve crop yields. These findings offer actionable strategies to increase water productivity and ensure food security in Pakistan's rice-growing regions, with potential applications in other water-scarce, rice-producing countries facing similar challenges. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Effect of alternating canal and marginal groundwater irrigation on banana yield, water use efficiency, and soil salinity under furrow plantation

2026-03-05T06:43:53Z

dc.title: Effect of alternating canal and marginal groundwater irrigation on banana yield, water use efficiency, and soil salinity under furrow plantation dc.contributor.author: Gul, N.; Salam, H. A.; Ashraf, Muhammad; Semiromi, M. T. dcterms.abstract: Banana is one of the most important cash crops in Sindh, Pakistan; however, its production is increasingly compromised due to declining freshwater availability. Currently, banana is cultivated using conventional flat basin irrigation, which results in low water use efficiency (WUE). Groundwater in the region is predominantly marginal to saline in quality but could potentially supplement limited freshwater resources. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the conjunctive use of marginal-quality groundwater and canal water to address freshwater shortages without compromising crop yields. In this study, the Dwarf Cavendish banana variety (locally known as Basrai) was cultivated over a four-year period (October 2015–June 2019) on furrows (0.90 m furrow width, 1.20 m bed width, and 0.23 m bed height). Alternate irrigation using canal and marginal groundwater was applied at three levels of available soil moisture depletion (ASMD): 50 %, 40 %, and 30 %. Traditional farmer irrigation practices were also monitored for comparison. At ASMD levels of 50 %, 40 %, and 30 %, annual water applications were 1228 mm, 1403 mm, and 1592 mm, respectively. In contrast, farmers applied 2866 mm of water annually. Irrigation at 50 % ASMD resulted in 12–23 % higher yield and 23–41 % higher WUE compared to 30 % and 40 % ASMD treatments. Compared to the 50 % ASMD treatment, farmer practices produced 24 % lower yield and 67 % lower WUE. Importantly, soil salinity remained within acceptable threshold limits across all treatments. These results suggest that banana can be successfully cultivated on furrows using alternate irrigation with canal and marginal groundwater at 50 % ASMD. This strategy offers substantial water savings while improving yield and WUE, making it a viable and sustainable solution for banana production in water-scarce regions. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Building resilient urban water systems: emerging opportunities for solving long-lasting challenges

2026-03-18T06:13:25Z

dc.title: Building resilient urban water systems: emerging opportunities for solving long-lasting challenges dc.contributor.author: Nlend, B.; Reimuth, A.; Yang, L. E.; Jampani, Mahesh; Cristiano, E.; Dewals, B.; Boyer, E.; Cetinkaya, I. D.; Diémé, L. P.; Dutta, R.; Feng, W.; Grossi, G.; Nasr, W. B.; Obaitor, O. S.; Olusola, A. O.; Panchanathan, A.; Rab, G.; Sharma, S.; Wang, C.; Warter, M. M.; Welty, C.; Tetzlaf, D. dcterms.abstract: In this perspective paper, we analyse the challenges and opportunities of hydrology in the urban context and propose solutions for innovation and sustainability by leveraging advancements across technology, society, and governance for resilient cities. Technological breakthroughs, such as smart sensors and artificial intelligence, can enhance the efficiency and resilience of real-time water monitoring and predictions. Public awareness and community engagement can foster behavioural change and empower residents to actively participate in urban water governance through initiatives like rainwater harvesting and participatory planning. Additionally, big data and remote sensing provide cities with the insights needed for adaptive, data-driven decision-making. Together, these developments represent a paradigm shift from reactive problem-solving to proactive, integrated solutions that prioritise equity, environmental health, and urban resilience. Finally, the paper highlights the differences in progress between the Global North and the Global South and proposes research priorities for the future of urban hydrology. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Scaling for Impact

Evaluating irrigation and fertilizer strategies for sustainable forage productivity and improved nitrogen efficiency in the sub-humid highlands of Ethiopia

2026-03-25T11:22:45Z

dc.title: Evaluating irrigation and fertilizer strategies for sustainable forage productivity and improved nitrogen efficiency in the sub-humid highlands of Ethiopia dc.contributor.author: Taye, C.W.; Hussein, Misbah A.; Ayalew, A.D.; Assefa, T.T.; Fohrer, N.; Riga, Fikadu T.; Bezabih, Melkamu; Adie, Aberra; Tilahun, Seifu A. dcterms.abstract: Livestock productivity in Ethiopia is hampered by the limited quantity and quality of feed, largely due to lack of knowledge on the possibility of irrigating forage with good agronomic practices by the development agents, which are further exacerbated by climate variability and resource constraints. This study investigated the effects of irrigation levels, fertilizer types and rates, and forage varieties on nitrogen productivity and residual soil nitrogen (RSN) in Robit-Bata Kebele, Ethiopia. A 3×3×7 factorial design was used, including three irrigation levels (60, 80, and 100% of total available soil water), three fertilizer rates (organic manure at 30 t ha⁻¹ and urea at 100 and 300 kg ha⁻¹), and seven perennial forages (four grasses and three legumes). Over two years (2021–2022), data on dry matter yield (DMY), nitrogen uptake (NU), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), RSN, and nitrogen surplus (NS) were collected. Full irrigation (I100) yielded the highest DMY (8.7 t ha⁻¹), NU (131.2 kg ha⁻¹), and NUE (46 kg kg⁻¹), and lowest NS (18.9 kg ha⁻¹), although deficit irrigation (I80) resulted in similar (p>0.05) DMY, NU, NUE, and NS. Napier grass ILRI-16791 with 300 kg ha⁻¹ urea achieved the highest DMY (20.7 tha⁻¹) and NU (259.2 kg ha⁻¹), while 100 kg ha⁻¹ urea maximized NUE (138.8 kg kg⁻¹) and minimized NS (-168.8 kg ha⁻¹). Deficit irrigation (I80) combined with manure and Napier grass ILRI-16791 is recommended for optimal productivity and environmental sustainability. This study provides novel insights into site-specific, climate-responsive nutrient and water management strategies for public development agents to support smallholder forage production systems. Future studies should assess economic feasibility and integrated manure-urea applications to enhance soil health and NUE. cg.contributor.initiative: Sustainable Animal Productivity; West and Central African Food Systems Transformation

Legal foundations for public participation on international watercourses: the case of the Ili River

2026-03-18T06:11:39Z

dc.title: Legal foundations for public participation on international watercourses: the case of the Ili River dc.contributor.author: Janusz-Pawletta, Barbara; Oravcová, M. dcterms.abstract: Effective engagement of local communities in managing transboundary water basins is essential to sustainable development and water resources management. This paper explores how international law, including a variety of legal regimes from international water law to international environmental and human rights law, shapes public participation on transboundary water resources. A coherent legal framework secures substantive rights to water and supports its implementation via procedural rights: access to information, justice, and participation in decision-making. Using the Ili River shared by China and Kazakhstan as a case study, this article highlights the legal foundations that enable participation, identifies gaps, and suggests that solutions may lie beyond international water law.

Two-dimensional modeling of nitrate transport in canola field under Moistube irrigation using HYDRUS 2D/3D

2026-03-05T06:43:54Z

dc.title: Two-dimensional modeling of nitrate transport in canola field under Moistube irrigation using HYDRUS 2D/3D dc.contributor.author: Dirwai, Tinashe Lindel; Senzanje, A.; Mabhaudhi, T. dcterms.abstract: Introduction: Understanding nitrate distribution and leaching under various irrigation strategies is critical for optimizing nitrogen use efficiency and minimizing environmental losses. While previous studies have explored wetting patterns under Moistube Irrigation (MTI) and discussed qualitative nitrate retention, few have quantitatively simulated nitrate transport through variably saturated zones with fine temporal-spatial resolution. Methods: A field experiment was conducted in a 20 m × 8 m naturally ventilated greenhouse using three irrigation regimes: (i) full irrigation (100% ETc), (ii) optimal deficit irrigation (75% ETc), and (iii) extreme deficit irrigation (55% ETc). Each regime was replicated across four 2 m × 1 m plots, physically and hydrologically separated by 1 m buffers. Fertilizer was applied at 210 ppm in two split applications. Soil samples were collected both adjacent to and 15 cm away from MTI laterals at multiple depths before and at 2 h, 4 h, 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h post-fertigation. HYDRUS 2D/3D was used to simulate solute transport, while nitrogen use efficiency was evaluated using the partial factor productivity of applied nitrogen (PFPN). Results: The 55% ETc regime showed the highest nitrate leaching, followed by the 75% ETc regime. Full and optimal deficit irrigation regimes achieved yields ≥ 1.15 ton.ha−1 and PFPN values of 1.72 kg.kg−1 and 1.29 kg.kg−1, respectively. HYDRUS 2D/3D accurately simulated solute transport for full and optimal DI regimes with performance metrics [nRMSE ≤ 0.24, EF ≤ 0.54, PBIAS ≤ −7.41%], but performed poorly under the extreme deficit irrigation. Discussion: The findings suggest that optimal deficit irrigation under MTI enables effective fertigation with minimal yield penalties, offering a balance between water savings and nutrient retention. MTI, combined with precise fertigation scheduling, shows promise as a climate-smart agriculture solution, particularly in nitrate-sensitive zones. The study confirms the feasibility of using MTI beyond laboratory settings, with implications for sustainable intensification in semi-arid regions. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Sustainable Farming

What is the role for multistakeholder platforms in transboundary basin governance? Distilling lessons from three cases and applying them in the Incomati Basin

2026-03-18T06:08:25Z

dc.title: What is the role for multistakeholder platforms in transboundary basin governance? Distilling lessons from three cases and applying them in the Incomati Basin dc.contributor.author: Nehring, Ryan; Lautze, Jonathan F.; Mgudlwa, Maliviwe dcterms.abstract: Multistakeholder platforms have become a go-to institutional model for achieving effective and inclusive water governance. With the proliferation of cooperative arrangements at a transboundary scale, there has been a growing number of transboundary river basin multistakeholder platforms. While these basin-wide platforms should contribute to improving water governance, evidence on the structure and impacts of them is scarce. This paper outlines the development of a transboundary multistakeholder platform in the Incomati River Basin in Southern Africa. Learning from experiences in other shared basins, we focus on the multiscale and political aspects of integrating multistakeholder platforms into transboundary basin governance. cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

From theory to practice: lessons from transformative learning through a net-zero design competition

2025-10-26T12:55:14Z

dc.title: From theory to practice: lessons from transformative learning through a net-zero design competition dc.contributor.author: Mehmood, A.; Cheema, Abdur Rehman; Salam, M.; Ahmed, S. U. D.; Moghayedi, A.; Vassilev, V.; Aburamadan, R. dcterms.abstract: This practical note explores the impact of transformative learning through an international design competition focused on net-zero housing in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. By fostering interdisciplinary collaboration and hands-on engagement, the competition equipped young professionals with practical skills to address climate-responsive housing challenges. Participants designed affordable, sustainable homes using renewable energy solutions tailored to middle-income households in a Global South setting, supported by workshops, skill-building sessions, and expert feedback. Survey findings highlighted the potential for such initiatives to bridge education, policy, and practice, promoting inclusivity and innovation. This work demonstrates the transformative role of experiential education in advancing sustainability considerations, addressing affordability, and aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

From theoretical to sustainable potential for run-of-river hydropower development in the upper Indus basin

2026-03-05T06:44:13Z

dc.title: From theoretical to sustainable potential for run-of-river hydropower development in the upper Indus basin dc.contributor.author: Dhaubanjar, S.; Lutz, A. F.; Pradhananga, Saurav; Smolenaars, W.; Khanal, S.; Biemans, H.; Nepal, Santosh; Ludwig, F.; Shrestha, A. B.; Immerzeel, W. W. dcterms.abstract: A comprehensive assessment of hydropower resource potential considering factors beyond technical and financial parameters is missing for the upper Indus basin (UIB). Our framework takes a systems approach to quantify the theoretical to sustainable hydropower potential by successively considering natural, technical, financial, anthropogenic, environmental, and geo-hazard risk constraints on hydropower at individual sites as well as at the basin-scale. Theoretical potential of the UIB is 1564 TWh/yr at 500-m resolution. Across three energy focus and three geo-hazard risk scenarios, our cost-minimization model finds that technical (12%–19%), financial (6%–17%) and sustainable (2%–10%) potential are a small portion of the theoretical value. Mixed development combining plants of various size, cost and configuration provides the highest potential with the best spatial coverage. Alongside, our review of 20 datasets reveals a visualized potential exceeding 300 TWh/yr from 447 hydropower plants across the UIB, with only a quarter of the potential materialized by mostly large plants in the mainstreams. Hydropower cost curves show that Swat and Kabul sub-basins have a larger proportion of cost-effective and sustainable potential untapped by the visualized potential. Water use for other sectors represents the strongest constraints, reducing a third of the technical potential when evaluating sustainable potential. Ultimately, human decisions regarding scale, configuration and sustainability have a larger influence on hydropower potential than model parameter assumptions. In quantifying hydropower potential under many policy scenarios, we demonstrate the need for defining hydropower sustainability from a basin-scale perspective towards energy justice and balanced fulfilment of Sustainable Development Goals for water and energy across the Indus.

Inferring the impacts of climate extreme in the Kabul River Basin

2026-03-18T06:08:48Z

dc.title: Inferring the impacts of climate extreme in the Kabul River Basin dc.contributor.author: Khatiwada, K. R.; Pradhananga, Saurav; Nepal, Santosh dcterms.abstract: The increasing temperature and variability in precipitation, in terms of both frequency and intensity, are affecting different sectors in the Himalayan region. This study aims to quantify the future scenario and related extremes in the Kabul River Basin (KRB) of the western Himalaya using high-resolution climate datasets. We selected four representative General Circulation Model (GCM) runs from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, based on future projections, climatic extremes and their abilities to represent the historical climate cycle (1981–2010) of KRB. The seasonal analysis of precipitation shows decreasing pattern during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons and annual mean temperature will increase consistently by 3 to 5 °C in RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Ten indices were selected to study climatic extremes pertaining to the health, agriculture and water resources sectors. The extremes, like consecutive summer days, warm days and heatwaves, will increase, whereas the frost days, cold nights, cold waves and extreme precipitation days will decrease towards the end of this century. Besides, the extremes are not homogenous in time and space. Based on the results of this study, there is a need for prompt climate actions in order to increase the adaptive capacity against these extreme changes and to build resilient livelihoods in the KRB.

Beyond the Banks: paving the way for environmental flows in Nepal

2026-03-05T06:44:05Z

dc.title: Beyond the Banks: paving the way for environmental flows in Nepal dc.contributor.author: Tachamo-Shah, R. D.; Nepal, Santosh; Shah, D. N.; Eriyagama, Nishadi dcterms.abstract: Nepal has huge hydropower potential. Although the concept of environmental flows (e-flows) emerged in the early 2000s, its integration into hydropower development remains in the early stages. This study represents the first comprehensive effort to evaluate key stakeholders’ awareness of e-flows and identify the major challenges hindering their mainstream adoption in Nepal’s hydropower sector. Furthermore, it documents stakeholders’ perceptions regarding the impact of hydropower development on aquatic biodiversity and river ecology. An extensive survey was conducted between December 2022 and January 2023, collecting responses from a diverse group of stakeholders, including government agencies, water resource developers, user groups, practitioners, researchers, and academics. Additionally, focus group discussions were held in the Karnali River basin of western Nepal. The findings reveal that only 50 % of respondents are familiar with the e-flows concept. However, 80 % believe that e-flows have not been adequately implemented in any existing hydropower projects in the country. Similarly, 72 % of respondents perceive that hydropower development leads to biodiversity loss, while 56 % believe it reduces downstream water flow. The key challenges identified include (a) inadequate follow-up on environmental impact assessments (EIAs), (b) weak regulatory enforcement, (c) insufficient civil society oversight for ensuring compliance with EIA recommendations, (d) limited technical expertise, and (e) the absence of user-friendly e-flow estimation methods. The study’s findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to promote sustainable water resources development and mitigate the ecological impacts of hydropower projects. cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations

Performances of reanalysis products in representing the temperature climatology of Ethiopia

2026-03-18T06:12:43Z

dc.title: Performances of reanalysis products in representing the temperature climatology of Ethiopia dc.contributor.author: Tadesse, T. A.; Tarkegn, T. G.; Ray, R. L.; Tefera, G. W.; Demessie, S. F.; Shawul, A. A.; Worqlul, A. W.; van Oel, P. R.; Dile, Y. T.; Chukalla, A. D.; Haileslassie, Amare; Aniley, E.; Tagele, A. B.; Bantider, A. dcterms.abstract: Identifying the most reliable reanalysis temperature products is crucial for advancing hydro-climate research in data-scarce regions. This study evaluated two widely used reanalysis datasets in estimating minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) across various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Ethiopia at different temporal scales over the period 1990 to 2020. These datasets include the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2.0 (MERRA v2.0) and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5). Evaluations was undertaken at each AEZs using five statistical metrics, scatter plots and line graphs by the data collected from 37 meteorological stations. The results indicate that MERRA v2.0 demonstrates superior performance in simulating Tmin across daily, monthly, and annual temporal scales in most AEZs, based on the majority or entirety of the evaluation metrics. For Tmax, MERRA v2.0 performs best on an annual scale, while ERA5 shows better performance on a daily scale. However, both reanalysis products exhibit comparable performance in estimating monthly Tmax. Notably, the performance of the reanalysis datasets varies across different AEZs. In general, the findings underscore the importance of selecting the most suitable reanalysis datasets for Tmin and Tmax separately, tailored to specific temporal scales and AEZs, to improve hydrology and/or climate studies in data scarce portions of the country.

Which machine learning algorithm is best suited for estimating reference evapotranspiration in humid subtropical climate?

2026-02-20T05:35:35Z

dc.title: Which machine learning algorithm is best suited for estimating reference evapotranspiration in humid subtropical climate? dc.contributor.author: Deb, P.; Kumar, V.; Urfels, A.; Lautze, Jonathan F.; Kamboj, B. R.; Sharma, J. R.; Yadav, S. dcterms.abstract: Timely and reliable estimates of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) are imperative for robust water resources planning and management. Applying machine learning (ML) algorithms for estimating ET0 has been evolving, and their applicability in different sectors is still a compelling field of research. In this study, four Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithms—polynomial kernel (PK), polynomial universal function kernel (PUK), normalized poly kernel (NPK), and radial basis function (RBF)—were compared against widely used random forest (RF) and a simpler locally weighted linear regression (LWLR) algorithm at a humid subtropical region in India. The sensitivity analysis of the input variables was followed by application of the best combination of variables in algorithm testing and training for generating ET0. The results were then compared against the Penman–Monteith method at both daily and monthly time steps. The results indicated that ET0 is least sensitive to wind speed at 2 m height. Additionally, at a daily time step, RF, followed by PUK, generated the best results during both training and testing phases. In contrast, at a monthly time step, using multiple model evaluation matrices, PUK followed by RF performed best. These results demonstrate the application of the ML algorithms is subjected to user-required time steps. Although this study focused on Northwest India, the findings are relevant to all humid subtropical regions across the world. cg.contributor.initiative: NEXUS Gains cg.contributor.programAccelerator: Policy Innovations; Climate Action

Estimating natural groundwater recharge from rainfall and AEM data in crystalline aquifer

2026-03-18T06:11:39Z

dc.title: Estimating natural groundwater recharge from rainfall and AEM data in crystalline aquifer dc.contributor.author: Chandra, S.; Mizan, Syed Adil dcterms.abstract: Accurate knowledge of natural recharge is an essential input to devise an effective management plan for groundwater resources. The paper presents an approach of utilizing airborne electromagnetic (AEM) resistivity data coupled with precipitation using lithology constrained rainfall (LCR) recharge relationships to estimate natural recharge in a heterogeneous crystalline hard rock aquifer. AEM method, having the ability of rapid and dense data sampling, helps in improving the spatial estimation of groundwater recharge at a regional scale. A demonstrative study has been carried out in a granite hard rock terrain of southern India. The LCR recharge estimates are validated by the recharge estimates from the well-defined water table fluctuation (WTF) method. The estimated water level using LCR recharge is found in good agreement with the measured water level in the field, which indicates the robustness of the methodology. The paper also presents the role of data density on its spatial relationship through variogram analysis.