Panelists will share practical insights on integrating disparate systems, leveraging real-time data for better decision-making, and building automation strategies that can adapt as business needs change. Attendees will gain a clearer understanding of how to move from isolated automation investments to a fully orchestrated, end-to-end operational model.

Key discussion points will include:

• What orchestration means in practice—and how AI, WES/WCS and software platforms connect automation systems into a unified operation
• How flexible, modular automation enables warehouses to adapt to changing demand, labor constraints and SKU complexity
• How to measure ROI across an orchestrated system, including gains in throughput, utilization, service levels and resilience

Steiner told members of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee that the Postal Service's latest projections now show it can continue operating until sometime between 2031 and 2034 without running out of cash. Just a few months ago, USPS had warned Congress that it could exhaust its cash reserves and be forced to halt mail delivery as early as February 2027.

Solving the retirement problem

The biggest factor behind the improved outlook is a decision by the Postal Regulatory Commission to waive required minimum retirement payments through fiscal year 2030. The move provides roughly $15 billion in financial relief and gives the Postal Service more time to address its finances. USPS has also restricted non-essential spending, added new package business through a multi-year last-mile delivery agreement with DHL eCommerce, and raised some prices to improve revenue.

Please click here to read the complete article. 

Total May volume, at 1,618,761 units, increased 4.4% annually, following a 0.6% annual decline in April.

Trailers, at 39,839, headed up 7.9% annually, and domestic containers, at 783,590, posted an 8.6% annual gain. All domestic equipment, which is comprised of trailers and domestic containers, at 823,429, also was up 8.6% annually. ISO, or international, containers, at 795,332, eked out a 0.4% annual gain.

Through the first five months of 2026, IANA reported that total volume, at 7,725,501 units, were up 0.8% annually. Domestic containers, at 2,957,463, are up 5.1% annually, and trailers, at 152,139, are down 2.1% annually. All domestic equipment, at 3,109,602, are up 4.8% annually. ISO containers fell 4.7%, to 2,997,138.

On a recent IANA-hosted call earlier this month, IANA Director of Economics Andrew Sibold that the impact of the Iran conflict has been significant for domestic intermodal. For March and April (May data is not yet available), he said domestic intermodal share is over 50%, which he said was unusual.

“[April] was the second consecutive month in which domestic dominated the intermodal mix,” said Sibold. “It has been roughly a trend since January.”

With fuel prices having seen significant gains over the course of the Iran conflict, Sibold said that intermodal has seen some gains, with industry stakeholders’ modal shifts from long-haul trucking to intermodal.

Addressing the slight year-to-date volume gains, he explained that a year ago at this time, there was still a fair amount of tariff-driven pull-forward activity, which impacted annual comparisons.

“With a high domestic share, that is kind of a structural thing, where there is a lot of international weakness, due to some imports being swapped out for some of the domestic freight,” said Sibold.

To that end, he explained that what is happening now represents a break in kind of how intermodal has historically worked, given the overall rise in domestic and domestic ostensibly overtaking international as the big structural shift.

“Probably the most straightforward answer to it is the effect of the price shock and also the drop in imports coming from tariffs that could also be debated,” he said. “It's not quite certain whether the diesel price is actually driving the switch, so this could be largely tariff-driven.”

Larry Gross, president of Gross Transportation Consulting, said on the call that there are two independent things simultaneously happening in intermodal right now.

One is on the international side, in terms of import levels, driven by tariffs, being depressed and related difficulties, coupled with tailwinds on the domestic side, with fuel being a key part of that.

“I would say that there is a tightening of truckload supply, mainly driven by exterior events, which are government actions, with regard to English proficiency, immigration non-domiciled CDLs, and, and, and tighter trucking regulations with regard to zombie truckers,” he said. “Now those folks are being forced out of the business. A lot of the less reputable driver training institutes are being forced out of the business. This created a tightening in the truckload supply, and as consequence higher rates, and that's where intermodal has an opening in terms of truckload conversion, you know, so we've got some tailwinds now, and we're starting to see that, I think, in the domestic numbers.”

And Sibold pointed to what he called a miniature rally in domestic manufacturing, paced by AI data construction efforts and also the secondary effects of the White House’s federal reconciliation bill, also known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” that was signed into law last summer. Which helped to incentivize corporate investments into domestic manufacturing.

“You are starting to see some of those effects,” he said. “If domestic manufacturing was not [increasing], it would not be as easy for intermodal to make that swap and capture some of that domestic share. There is also the trucking labor story, too. It will be interesting to see how this develops going forward.”

Montgomery’s case arose from a 2017 trucking accident in which he suffered severe, permanent injuries after his tractor-trailer was struck by a truck transporting plastic pots. He sued freight broker C.H. Robinson, alleging it negligently hired an unsafe carrier with a poor safety record. Lower courts dismissed the claim as preempted by the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act (FAAAA).

The Supreme Court reversed, holding that negligent-hiring claims against freight brokers fall within the FAAAA’s safety exception because they are directly related to motor vehicle safety. In a concurring opinion, Justices Samuel Alito and Brett Kavanaugh noted that while trucking companies are usually better positioned to monitor safety, brokers may also be aware of unsafe carriers and should have incentives to avoid using them, provided reasonable brokers are not exposed to excessive liability.

With a focus on the need for a way to help industry stakeholders—specifically brokers, shippers, and freight forwarders—ascertain the criteria for a reasonable and defensible motor carrier selection process, Cassandra Gaines, founder & CEO of Carrier Assure, a transportation risk management platform she built to help brokers and shippers identify carriers that may meet modern industry vetting standards, using safety, fraud, and operational data, recently rolled out the CAVRA (Carrier Assessment, Verification, Risk, and Accountability) Standard, a 54-page framework, which outlines a modern carrier vetting process—addressing safety data, roadside inspection history, fraud indicators, identity verification, double-brokering risk, chameleon carrier concerns, shipment suitability, operational red flags, documentation, escalation, and written carrier vetting policies.

LM Group News Editor Jeff Berman interviewed Gaines about the CAVRA Standard, in terms of its key objectives, benefits for industry stakeholders, and what happens from here, among other topics, in the Q&A below.

LM: What drove the need to roll out the CAVRA standard? How long had it been planned or in the works?

Gaines: The need for CAVRA came from a clear gap in the industry. Brokers, shippers, and freight forwarders were being asked to make reasonable motor carrier selection decisions, but there was no practical, operational framework explaining what that actually means in today’s environment.

I had been working on the concepts behind CAVRA for years through my legal work, expert witness work, industry education, and the development of Carrier Assure. The Montgomery ruling accelerated the need to put the framework into a clear written standard because the industry needed guidance quickly. CAVRA is not something created overnight in response to one case. It reflects 13-plus years of studying carrier selection practices, FMCSA data, fraud indicators, litigation issues, and how sophisticated transportation companies actually evaluate carriers in the real world.

LM: What are the main benefits it provides for brokers, shippers, and freight forwarders?

Gaines: CAVRA gives stakeholders a clearer way to evaluate motor carriers, using a consistent, risk-based process. For brokers and freight forwarders, it helps translate carrier vetting into written policies, defined thresholds, documentation practices, escalation steps, and defensible decision making. For shippers, it provides a framework to understand what reasonable carrier selection should look like and what they should expect from their transportation providers.

The goal is not to create perfection or eliminate all risk. The goal is to help companies identify material red flags, evaluate them consistently, document their reasoning, and avoid making carrier selection decisions in the dark.

LM: What are the key factors within the CAVRA standard for constituting a reasonable and defensible motor carrier selection process?

Gaines: A reasonable and defensible carrier selection process should be written, consistent, risk-based, and supported by documentation. It should include baseline eligibility requirements such as active authority, required insurance, and identity verification, but it should not stop there.

CAVRA focuses on several core areas: safety data, insurance, operating authority, inspection history, fraud indicators, identity control, double brokering prevention, chameleon carrier concerns, documented exceptions, escalation procedures, and continuous monitoring. The standard also emphasizes that carrier vetting is not just an onboarding event. It should continue through the shipment lifecycle, especially when new information or operational red flags appear.

LM: Following the Montgomery ruling, what does the CAVRA standard provide that was needed or missing?

Gaines: After Montgomery, the industry needed practical guidance on what reasonable carrier selection looks like. The ruling increased focus on broker liability and negligent selection, but it did not give the industry an operational playbook.

CAVRA helps fill that gap. It gives brokers, shippers, and freight forwarders a way to move from vague legal concepts into actual procedures. It explains what information should be reviewed, how red flags should be handled, when escalation is appropriate, and why documentation matters. It also reinforces that the standard is reasonableness, not perfection.

LM: What are the key aspects of CAVRA’s carrier vetting policy?

Gaines: The CAVRA policy is designed to help companies build a practical carrier vetting process. Key aspects include written approval standards, baseline eligibility requirements, hard stop rules, escalation triggers, safety data review, insurance review, authority review, identity verification, fraud and double brokering controls, documentation of exceptions, and ongoing monitoring.

A major component is accountability. If a company has access to carrier risk information, especially through its onboarding platform, compliance platform, TMS, or other vetting tools, that information should not be ignored. The company should decide how that information is used, address it in its policy, and document material exceptions or concerns.

LM: Are there any next steps, or future plans, for CAVRA?

Gaines: Yes. Version 1 is intended to start the industry conversation and give companies a practical framework they can begin using now. The next steps include continued education, webinars, industry feedback, additional implementation tools, and future refinements as carrier vetting practices, fraud risks, safety data, and litigation trends continue to evolve.

My goal is for CAVRA to become a living, practical standard that helps the industry make better, more consistent, and more defensible carrier selection decisions.

CHR said the purchase price was approximately $75 million. For the fiscal year through December 31, 2025, DeSpir had $62 million in total revenues.

CHR explained that bringing DeSpir into the fold boosts its capabilities in premium, defensible services, where it said security, compliance, and execution excellence are key decision drivers. And it added it builds on the company’s ability to deliver tailored solutions for highly sensitive, regulated shipments across industries like healthcare, life sciences, data centers, aerospace, and high-value retail—where precision, pre-planning, and real-time visibility are critical. Demand for these services is accelerating as supply chains become more complex and cargo theft grows more sophisticated, said CHR.

“With DeSpir, we’re strengthening how we help customers move freight that requires an extra layer of protection. This is the kind of cargo where the stakes are incredibly high, like life-saving pharmaceuticals that must stay within strict temperature ranges, or critical data center equipment that is frequently targeted for theft,” said Adam McDonough, vice president of capacity, at CHR. “Think of it like this: C.H. Robinson is the large, highly efficient logistics engine with industry leading safety and fraud prevention, while DeSpir is a specialized operations team within it—designed to handle complex, high-risk, high-value freight with the greatest level of control and precision. This is a specialized service that many of our customers need.”

A CHR spokesperson told LM  that this is not new territory for Robinson.

“With the acquisition of DeSpir, however, we are better positioned to serve complex, high-value segments,” said the spokesperson. “This enhances our expertise in areas where security, compliance, and execution excellence are key decision drivers. Also, new experts, additional specialized carriers, and advanced technology further increase the value we're delivering to customers.”

What’s more, CHR observed that DeSpir helps to leverage what the company called its disciplined approach to growth, through the addition of targeted capabilities that bolster its abilities to serve complex, high-value segments and key strategic verticals, as well as increase customer value.  

“The acquisition of DeSpir Logistics is an important step in how we continue to strengthen our ability to serve customers with high-value, high-risk freight,” said Jim Mancini, vice president of customer success, at CHR, in a LinkedIn post. “By bringing together DeSpir’s specialized expertise with C.H. Robinson’s scale and technology, we are building greater precision and security with some of the most complex shipments in the market. This is a clear example of how we are evolving our capabilities to deliver more value for customers where it matters most.”

Quarterly revenue, at $25.0 billion, increased 13% annually, and operating income, at $1.551 billion, fell 13% annually. Adjusted earnings per share, at $6.31, beat Wall Street estimates, at $5.96.

“Team FedEx delivered an impressive finish to a strong fiscal year, providing excellent service to our customers and successfully executing on our transformation initiatives,” said Raj Subramaniam, FedEx Corp. president and chief executive officer. “Our profitable growth strategy is working. We are building momentum across our global industrial network, driving structural improvements and winning in high-value growth markets. With the successful spin-off of FedEx Freight, we are entering this next chapter positioned to grow while further optimizing our network, lowering our cost to serve, creating meaningful long-term value, and driving robust free cash flow.”

FedEx Express revenue, at $21.570 billion, increased 14% annually. FedEx attributed the revenue gain to higher U.S. domestic and International Priority package yields, continued cost savings from transformation initiatives, and increased U.S. domestic and international export package volume. And it added that these drivers were partially offset by increased purchased transportation and wage rates, higher variable incentive compensation expenses, and the financial impact of global trade policy changes.

Total quarterly package revenue, at $19.570 billion, rose 13% annually: total U.S. domestic package revenue, up 13%, to $14.181 billion, total International export package revenue, at $4.209 billion, up 15% annually, and International domestic, at $1.180 billion, up 6%.

Total U.S. domestic average daily package volume, at 14.225 million, saw a 3% annual gain, and total International domestic average daily package volume, at 1.687 million, was off 9% annually. And total average U.S. domestic composite package yield, at $15.58, was up 10% annually, and total average International domestic package yield, at $10.93, was up 16% annually.  Total quarterly composite yield, at 17.90, rose 11%.

In its final earnings release as part of FedEx, as it’s spin-out into a separate, publicly-traded company went into effect on June 1, FedEx Freight, the company’s longtime less-than-truckload subsidiary, saw quarterly revenue rise 18% annually, to $1.665 billion.

“Each quarter of this fiscal year, we delivered on our financial commitments while supporting our customers with excellence,” said Subramanian on the company’s earnings call. “Our results demonstrate that we are growing revenue in the most premium segments of the global economy. As trade patterns evolve, we flex our network to keep supply chains moving. Our network transformation via Network 2.0, Tricolor, and opportunities in Europe is driving better density and efficiency. This progress, combined with a sharp focus on structural cost reduction, enabled us to exceed the $1 billion transformation-related savings target that we shared at the start of the fiscal year. And our data and technology advantage is helping us win new business, improve the customer experience, and create new value.”

And Brie Carere executive VP & chief customer officer, at FedEx, noted on the call that the company’s focus on premium B2B verticals and high-value B2C helped to grow volume and yield every quarter of fiscal year '26.

“As a result, we profitably increased revenue by nearly $7 billion compared to last year, a truly impressive achievement,” said Carere. “We have continued to help our customers navigate a very dynamic and complex environment. The implementation of global trade policy changes, geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and the IEEPA refund process. In April, we began to file claims with CBP on behalf of our customers. And beginning in August, we will be passing these refunds through to our customers.” 

In an initiative that she said has been years in the making, Carere said that FedEx’s B2B business continues to make strides, as evidenced by a 3.5% quarterly gain, with the company repivoting its commercial team to focus on what she called “core B2B,” as well as getting back to its roots as the industrial heartbeat of the global economy.

To that end, she explained that the AI and data center space is an emerging and rapidly scaling growth engine for FedEx, delivering double-digit revenue growth.

“Rather than a narrow vertical, this space represents a horizontal ecosystem,” she said. “We are capturing demand across the entire value chain from traditional hyperscalers to the industrial and power infrastructure that support these massive build-outs. What differentiates FedEx here is our unmatched responsiveness and our premium capabilities, leveraging network priority, near real-time monitoring and white glove handling. We are getting very positive feedback from our customers on our agility.”

Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue, at $94.7 billion posted an 8% annual gain, and operating income, at $5.46 billion, was up 5% annually. FedEx said that these results reflect lower structural costs as the company exceeded its goal of $1 billion of transformation-related costs savings throughout the fiscal year. Looking ahead, FedEx said it expects calendar year 2026 revenue to increase by around 11%, with adjusted EPS pegged to come in between $16.90-to-$18.10.

AlixPartners’ “2026 U.S. Consumer & Executive Home Delivery Survey Results,” has been published since 2012 and is in its 14^th year. The firm said the survey’s findings were based on feedback from U.S. consumers aged 18 and above, across all regions, demographics, and income levels. And the firm also polled senior transportation, logistics, and supply chain professionals at North American companies with $100 million or more in income.

A key finding in the survey pointed to what AlixPartners called a reset in consumers’ free shipping expectations, with sub-three-day delivery becoming the new baseline. To that end, it noted that consumers are now expecting free delivery in an average of 2.7 days, which is down from 3.5 days or more in previous years—with times varying by industry (0.9 days for grocery and food to 3.2 days for large general merchandise. What’s more, it said more than 20% of demand is estimated to be at risk when timing expectations do not come to fruition.

In an interview with LM, Rebecca Wolfe, senior vice president, supply chain and operations, at AlixPartners, called the decrease an inflection point.

“It is not really consumers being impatient,” said Wolfe. “It is really a fundamental shift in what they think is actually possible, which is the key thing. It comes down to Amazon’s influence, with younger consumers, in the 18-to-34 age range, placing orders almost daily. They’re becoming accustomed to seeing that fast fulfillment, so that expectation is now bleeding into their shopping everywhere else.”

Wolfe also explained that it is important to understand that consumers have normalized that sub-three-day delivery across various goods categories, with different categories having different expectations—while becoming “table stakes” at a high level. Which is putting pressure on retailers to match it or lose business.
“Consumers have moved away from hoping for fast delivery to believing it's feasible, and once the consumer believes it's feasible, they're expecting it,” she said. “And whether it's profitable for the retailers or not, they're expected to do it. We're likely approaching a point where the market fragments into tiers rather than everyone chasing that same speed, and so that's when that 3.5 days becomes a defensible position for certain segments, not because consumers prefer it, but because like physical and economic limitations kind of force that differentiation. The expectations move lower, but we can't just say everything's now expected at that 2.7-day mark. We want to consider what’s being shipped.”

Carrier diversification: In a first for the survey, AlixPartners reported that the FedEx-UPS parcel duopoly is losing market share, with 55% of retailers turning to other carriers aside from FedEx and UPS, as well as the United States Postal Service (USPS)—and more than one-third have taken steps to shift volume from traditional carriers. And it said FedEx surpassed UPS as the “most-cited primary carrier,” and is used by 35% of retailers, topping UPS’s 35% 2023 high.

This shift is something that is expected to continue, according to Wolfe.

“What we are seeing is a fundamental reordering of priorities for retailers, based on consumer expectations,” she said. “Cost used to dominate the decisions that retailers make, and now reliability is kind of pushing its way in and has become a principal reason form retailers when choosing their carriers. More than 90% of retailers are using a mix of carriers now, and then about one-third are working with four or more. So, it's a significant diversification strategy. It's happening because the major carriers just can't meet the volume demands levels that retailers need, and that service level is a huge piece.

When more than one-third of retailers are shifting volume away from the big three, it really tells you something, so it's that they are doing it to save money. They're doing it because they need carriers who can deliver reliability the consumers expect, and I just think that you'll see this continue. Retailers realize that putting all their eggs in one basket, with one or two carriers, is a risk they just can't afford, because diversification will provide flexibility, and then, frankly, it also gives them leverage in negotiations too.”

The AI impact: The survey found that AI is being viewed as a “high-confidence investment priority in home delivery,” in the form of things like more reliable ETAs, reduced failed deliveries, and real-time routing optimization, for executive respondents, and things like live tracking and real-time routing optimization, for consumers.

On a practical level, it observed that AI adoption is being leveraged on various fronts, including address validation and AI-powered customer service bots, coupled with executive respondents focusing on things like ETA accuracy, routing optimization, and network capacity planning. For consumers, the key AI focus areas cited were more than half (three out of five) having used an AI chatbot to handle delivery tracking and issue resolution, as well as other things like delivery updates and resolving service issues.

“AI is not a ‘nice to have’ anymore; it is now a necessity,” said Wolfe. “When we think about AI investment, it is in a few places. One is in improving ETA accuracy and reducing failed or missed deliveries—which both directly impact customer satisfaction and retention, which is where a lot of the investment is going. But the big reality check is that AI and technology solve optimization problems, but they don’t solve the fundamental costs and capacity challenges. You still need good retailers, networks, carrier relationships, and smart operational decisions. Technology will amplify this good strategy, but it won’t replace it.”

Other key findings in the survey cited by AlixPartners were:

• 83% of retailers report home delivery costs rose year-over-year;
• 64% of retailers said home delivery is not accretive to profitability compared to in-store transactions;
• 56% of retailers require a minimum order value for free shipping, with half raising that threshold over the last year; and
• 22% now are requiring a minimum order and paid membership to unlock free shipping

ATA reported that its May Seasonally Adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index reading, at 114.4 (2015=100), saw a 0.6% annual increase, following a 2.5% annual increase in April. On a sequential basis, it fell 2%, following a 0.9% sequential decrease in April. Through the first five months of 2026, the index posted a 2% annual increase, whereas it was flat annually in 2025.

The ATA’s not seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, came in at 114.8, which came in 0.8% below the 115.7 reading in April. ATA said that these indices “are dominated by contract freight, as opposed to traditional spot market freight.”

“After a total gain of 4.7% during the first three months of the year, tonnage fell a total of 2.9% during the last two months,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Despite the recent decreases, the index increased from year earlier levels for the sixth straight month, which is pretty good considering the bulk of freight drivers, like manufacturing and construction, remain lackluster.”

The national average price per gallon, for the week of June 22, fell 22.7 cents, coming in at $4.832, snapping a 14-week stretch of declines, going back to the week of March 16, when the national average was at $5.071 per gallon.

Prior to that, the national average, for the week of June 15, dropped 15.1 cents, to $5.059, , following a 14.0-cent decline, to $5.210, for the week of June 8, a 17.3-cent decline, to $5.350, for the week of June 1, which marked steepest weekly decline since the week of April 20, when the national average fell 20.5 cents, from $5.608 to $5.403, for the largest weekly decline in more than three years, according to EIA data.

Prior to that, the national average price per gallon, for the week of May 25, at $5.523 per gallon, fell 7.3 cents compared to the week of May 18, which came in at $5.596, and was off 4.3 cents compared to the week of May 11, at $5.639. which eked out a $0.001-cent sequential gain. That followed a 28.9-cent cent sequential gain, for the week of May 4, when it came in at $5.640, which represented the largest sequential increase since the week of March 16, when it increased $0.21.

For the week of April 27, the national average decreased 5.2 cents, to $5.351, and for the week of April 20, it fell 20.5 cents, to $5.403, marking the highest weekly decline, since the week of December 22, 2008, when it fell 24.5 cents, and a 3.5-decline decline to $5.608, for the week of April 13.

Prior to the week of May 4, the highest average price in any week since came during the week of May 9, 2022, when it was at $5.623 per gallon. Prices continue to remain elevated, due to the launched joint strikes by the United States and Israel, in an initiative geared towards halting Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.

Various reports cited declining oil prices early last week, after a preliminary agreement was reached between the U.S. and Iran.

EIA officials said that the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of the world’s petroleum supply (roughly 20 to 21 million barrels per day) and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). It added that due to recent conflicts, this vital energy chokepoint has experienced significant blockades and military standoffs, leading to major global supply disruptions and price volatility.

Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote in a series of social media posts that the preliminary deal led to a 5% decline in oil prices yesterday, adding that gas stations will start lowering prices this week, following that decline, which could take up to a week or two to pass on, with that caveat that things, “could quickly reverse if the deal unravels.”

The report, entitled “Travel, transportation and logistics: US Deals 2026 midyear outlook,” observed that while the freight recession is over, buyers are not going back to the “old scale playbook.” Instead, it said, investors now prefer specific assets are scarce as well as difficult to replace, across various logistics facets: cold chain, healthcare logistics; reverse logistics; dedicated fleet; cross-border infrastructure; port access; automation, or AI-enabled visibility.  

The report highlighted various key dealmaking takeaways:

• Average deal size has increased 321% going back to 2023, from $340 million to $1.43 billion, as investors are focusing on fewer, more strategic transactions and not chasing scale alone;
• Ports, border assets and logistics infrastructure are becoming control points, with investors competing for scarce nodes that provide access, resilience, and pricing leverage
• Median TTL deal values increased from 9.5x-to-10.2 EBITDA over the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, with PwC observing that the “premium is not evenly distributed,” as “buyers appear more willing to pay for companies that solve complex operating than for assets that merely add volume, among others

In an interview with LM, Mike Ross, Consumer Market Deals Leader, at PwC, said that the current dealmaking environment is different than it was last year at this time, due, in part, to macroeconomic factors being different, and, in turn, drives activity from an M&A perspective. And he added that the pickup in activity is largely a response to people probably having a better idea of where the industry may be headed.

“We are a year out from the tariff noise, but we are still seeing the knock-on effects impacting things,” said Ross. “There have been moves by big players. Rail [Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern] is just not about rail in my mind. It is about rail-adjacent players and the downstream impact that may or may not happen to play out in trucking. There are still big moves occurring, like the FedEx Freight separation so the companies can focus on their respective businesses. Activity begets activity in this space. PE has been interestingly active in a way…looking at premium assets, like defensible tech assets. So, it is not like they are necessarily going after volume-based plays with trucking fleets. They are looking at freight-related things like freight audit services companies and also things that could be tech-enabled.”  

Addressing the increase in deal values going from 9.5x-to-10.2 EBITDA through the first four months of 2026, Ross explained that is the function of an increased focus on making deals that have more of a premium and increasing at a rate higher than other sectors, with the exception of technology.

“It speaks to the activity largely being driven by interest in defensible assets, or companies that have something unique about them, more than just being a capacity play,” he said. “The environment for M&A, not just TTL, is pretty friendly right now—but you never know how long that window is going to be open. The regulatory environment is a bit more favorable now, too.”

When asked if there will be more mega deals and tuck-in deals going forward, Ross said it is likely there will be both, and will largely be a function of CEOs seeing a moment to go do something they have been waiting to do, whether it be for a small or large deal.

But he cautioned that it comes with the caveat that if there in uncertainty around that, CEOs could move to make a different play, while the underlying theme remains continued dealmaking activity for mid-market-type of deals, and also a function of looking for specialty or scarce assets.

As for what markets are attracting the most dealmaking interest amid a crowded field, which includes cold chain, healthcare logistics, reverse logistics, dedicated cross-border, and AI-enabled visibility, among others, Ross declined to pick a favorite in that race.

“It is a diversified market, and there are a lot of players looking for different things,” he said. “There is not a glut of highly valuable, premium assets in any one area here,” he said. “I think it is probably a function of premium assets across various spaces. It is just that there are not tons of them, and people are probably placing their bets and taking that into consideration. It is all a function of various macro factors, like consumer demand and behavior, the tariff situation now compared to 12 months ago, in terms of nearshoring and the realigning of trading lanes. There are a lot of moving pieces for people to keep track of now.”   

The company explained that these facilities are optimized for speed and also short-term storage between air and ground movements and also maintaining specific temperature requirements. And it added that this investment helps to boost UPS’s global cold-chain network, with demand increasing for medicines that require strict temperature ranges between 2-to-8 degrees Celsius, 15-to-25 degrees Celsius, and frozen.  

What’s more, the company said that temperature-sensitive biologics are seeing high industry demand and pegged to rise at an 8.3% compound annual growth rate through 2033, coming in at an estimated $39.1 billion, based on data from Growth Market Reports.

Key benefits of this $48 million investment cited by UPS were:

• 27 temperature-controlled freight cross-docks creating seamless movement across transportation modes. All facilities are compliant with IATA CEIV Pharma certification, an industry-recognized standard for pharmaceutical handling and quality;
• A single integrated network eliminating handoffs between providers, reducing risk and increasing control;
• Greater accountability and real-time oversight protect high-value, temperature-sensitive therapies from excursion and disruption; and
• 24/7/365 control tower proactively monitoring shipments, flags risks and enables rapid intervention to keep critical products moving

UPS VP of Healthcare Strategy Kiel Harkness told LM that this investment is being driven by a fundamental shift in what UPS’s customers are shipping.

“We’re seeing a growing mix of higher-value, temperature-sensitive and time-critical healthcare products that require more precision and control across the supply chain,” said Harkness. “This also enhances global connectivity across key lanes between U.S., Americas, Asia and Europe, linking regional manufacturing with global markets. This investment is part of a broader, multi-year effort by UPS to strengthen and continuing expanding our integrated network so we can reduce risk at key handoff points, maintain control across modes and give customers more consistency in how their products move.”

When asked what this investment means for UPS’s customers, he said it really comes down to control, consistency, and confidence, in that the investment allows it to reduce handoffs, improve visibility across the entire shipment journey, and move more seamlessly between air, ground and distribution.

“That helps minimize variability, where most risk shows up, and improves reliability for high-value, time- and temperature-sensitive shipments,” he said. “Ultimately, it gives customers greater confidence that critical therapies will arrive on time and in the right condition.”

Looking ahead, Harkness said that this is part of a broader effort to keep strengthening UPS’s integrated, global logistics network as its customers’ needs become more complex.

“We’ve been investing ahead of that shift, closely tracking how the industry’s biologics pipeline is evolving toward higher-value, more time- and temperature-sensitive shipments,” he said. “We’ll continue to expand capabilities that improve control, visibility and consistency, particularly in cold chain and time-critical logistics, with a focus on scaling across the network so we can stay ahead of demand.”

Another key driver for this expansion, according to UPS, focused on how the biologics pipeline is increasing complexity across cold-chain logistics operations, with data from PharmaSource pointing to around one in three newly-approved drugs being a biologic and more than 85% of them in need of temperature-controlled handling.  It also noted that with cell and gene treatments, mRNA platforms and GLP-1 injectables coming to market, it is resulting in healthcare supply chains becoming more complex and risk-sensitive. A key driver of that risk, it said, is temperature excursions, adding that cold-chain failures are estimated to come in at around $35 billion annually—while also contributing to 50% of global vaccine waste, according to data from the WHO.

“Biologics and personalized treatments are driving better, more targeted care for patients,” said John Bolla, President of UPS Healthcare. “These investments reflect our commitment to continue to align our leading end-to-end supply chain to protect innovative treatments and diagnostics, supporting better patient outcomes.”

This investment serves as the most recent example of ways in which UPS has expanded its healthcare logistics presence through strategic investments, such as it did with: its November 2022 acquisition of Lombardia, Italy-based multinational healthcare logistics provider Bomi Group; its January 2025 acquisition of Germany-based healthcare logistics services provider Frigo Trans and BPL; and the expansion of its Incheon, Korea air hub, which focused on supporting fast-growing pharmaceutical trade flows.

Data for this report is based on feedback from U.S.-based purchasing and supply chain executives in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

For manufacturing, ISM is estimating revenues to increase 8.4% in 2026, topping a 4.4% growth estimate made in the December report and 2.5% ahead of 2025’s annual growth rate, with 82% of respondents indicating that 2026 revenues will see an average increase of 12.7%. And it added that revenue gains are expected for 14 of the 18 manufacturing sectors tracked by ISM: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; and Chemical Products.

Manufacturing capital expenditures (capex) are expected to rise 4.9% in 2026, above December’s 3% estimate, while increasing 3.5% in 2025, with 60% of respondents calling for higher 2026 capex, 34% expecting a decrease, on average, at 23.7%, while 6% said it would be flat, with 10 sectors indicating they expect capex to rise.

Other key manufacturing findings included:

• prices paid increased 11.9% through June, following an expected 4.4% gain in 2026, stated in the December report;
• manufacturing employment is expected to rise 1.4% in 2026, following an expected 4.4% gain slight 0.4% gain in 2026, from the December report;
• production capacity is expected to rise 9.7% in 2026, ahead of December’s 5.2% 2026 forecast;
• the manufacturing operating rate is at 89.6 of normal capacity, ahead of December’s 82.4% reading;
• the report expects manufacturing growth in 2026

“With 14 manufacturing industries expecting revenue growth and seven industries expecting employment growth in 2026, panelists forecast a healthy rest of the year,” said Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Sentiment in each industry was generally consistent with performance reports in the May 2026 Manufacturing ISM PMI Reports, as well as the fall ISM Supply Chain Planning Forecast released in December.”

Services outlook: ISM member panelists reported that they expect 2026 revenues to increase 8.6% in 2026, marking a 4% gain over December’s 4.6% estimate, with 81% of panelists expecting 2026 revenues to rise by an average of 12.9% over 2025, and 15% said they expect revenues to decline, by 11.3%, on average, and another 4% expecting flat revenues. And it added that 16 services sectors are expecting 2026 revenue gains.

Services capex is pegged to seen a 6.4% annual increase in 2026, well ahead of December’s 2.5% estimate for the year. ISM said that 70% of panelists that expect to spend more are calling for an average increase of 14.3%, with 23% expecting a 15.5% annual decrease, with 7% saying it will be a flat year for capex.

Other key services findings include:

• production capacity is expected to head up 7.1% in 2026, whereas the December report called for a 2.1% gain this year;
• prices paid increased 7.7% through June, coming in ahead of a 4.2% December estimate;
• employment is pegged to rise 0.9%, trailing a 2.5% made in December; and
• the report expects the services sector to grow in 2026

“The services sector will continue to lead the economy in 2026,” said Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee. “Services companies are currently operating at 91.3 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 8.9 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to grow only slightly (0.9 percentage point). Sixteen industries forecast increased revenues, the same as predicted in in December 2025.”

To be clear, that is a long list, when you think about it: global trade and tariffs; the ongoing immersion and impact of AI on logistics, supply chain, and freight operations; a potential Class I railroad deal that could very well change the competitive landscape, should it go through; energy prices related and Middle East shipping concerns related to the Iran conflict; an ample amount of over-the-road capacity that has left the market, driven largely by a whole host of federal government actions and mandates; long-awaited pricing and rate gains for carriers after years of essentially being stuck in neutral, for both pricing and volume; the gains seen in the industrial economy going back to the beginning of the year, which is slowly helping to increase volumes (although many industry stakeholders continue to drive home the point that a true demand-driver, or growth catalyst, is needed to truly turn the corner on the way to sustained volume growth and profitability; and, not to be left out, the e-commerce-driven supply chain, which, for the most part, continues its steady growth path, ostensibly regardless of market conditions.

There are likely topics missing from that list, too, of course, like, now that I think about it, Peak Season, the ongoing advent of autonomous vehicles, import numbers, the financial outlook and future of the United States Postal Service and a slew of economic indicators we all monitor, like GDP, retail sales, inventories, housing starts, and consumer confidence, among others.

That said, perhaps, now, more than ever, with the likely of exception of the pandemic’s early days, many logistics practitioners and industry stakeholders likely have their heads on a swivel, trying to keep up with all of the key players and performers, or themes, rather trends, themes, and topics. That is pretty apparent, to be sure, but that is not to say, at the same time that this is anything new or even unusual either.

It is also a lot to pay attention to and take in—and think about, especially as it relates to specific individual segments and focus areas, as the aforementioned topics, trends, and themes, again, represents a very long list that is clearly not going to apply to everyone.

But even so, it goes without saying that even if an organization’s logistics arm is not directly connected to each one of these things in its day-to-day operations, it is more than likely, that, at the very least, it is cognizant of them, if even only to some degree—and that is fine.

With 2026 almost halfway done (how is that possible?), it is likely that how things are going year-to-date may not exactly match up with what the expectations were. The Iran conflict clearly is a factor there, as are other things, too, like some (but still not enough) economic momentum, and the need for more supply chain certainty as well, which was a key theme of 2025, and still holds true today.

Looking ahead, as usual, it can be difficult to say, with confidence, what happens next and where things go from here. But either way we will be playing very close attention to the key logistics and players and performers listed in the program.

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $37 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers. 

The May shipments reading, at 1.041, fell 1.2% annually, faring better than April’s 4.4% annual decline, and rose 3.0% sequentially (its fourth straight sequential increase), and fell 0.3% on a month-to-month seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis.  On a two-year stacked-change basis, May shipments were off 5.2%.

Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, observed in the report that May’s 3% sequential volume gain, coupled with the annual decline falling to 1.2%, with the report stating that the latter is the smallest gap in 18 months, serve as positive signs that a volume recovery in the second half of the year remains likely. What’s more, he added that the normal seasonal trend would put the shipments reading decreasing around 1% in July.

“While it may not be a consumer-led recovery, inventories are tight, tariffs are falling, and the U.S. dollar is soft, all of which support demand growth,” he wrote. “Many spot indicators suggest improving freight demand and certain sectors are executing well on growth, such as the domestic intermodal market.”

May expenditures, at 3.560, increased 7.5% annually, following a 3.5% annual gain in April, and headed up 8.3% on a two-year stacked-change basis, while posting a 5.3% sequential gain. On a month-to-month SA basis, April expenditures rose 4.9%.

  Denoyer noted that the acceleration in the annual gain was due to slower shipment declines, while rates rose slightly.

Rail carloads, at 230,959, increased 2.8% annually, topping the weeks ending June 6 and May 30, at 228,076, and 228,346, respectively.

AAR reported that six of the 10 carload commodity groups it tracks saw annual gains: grain, up 4,283 carloads, to 23,988; metallic ores and metals, up 3,964 carloads, to 24,604; and nonmetallic minerals, up 1,313 carloads, to 32,342. Commodity groups posting annual declines included: coal, down 4,893 carloads, to 53,955; chemicals, down 364 carloads, to 32,534; and forest products, down 130 carloads, to 8,061.

Weekly intermodal container and trailer volume, at 289,447 units, posted a 10.9% annual gain, trailing the week ending June 6, at 293,748, and topping the week ending May 30, at 264,449.

Through the first 23 weeks of 2026, AAR reported that carloads, at 5,215,944, increased 3.2% annually, and intermodal containers and trailers, at 6,403,177, are up 2.7%.

The annual ranking recognizes companies that Gartner considers leaders in supply chain performance and leadership. Cisco Systems and AstraZeneca rounded out the top five, while Danone, Lenovo, L'Oréal, Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft completed the top 10.

“This year, leaders are differentiating themselves by building autonomous workforces, investing in network-centric strategies and orchestrating supply chains end-to-end across increasingly complex ecosystems,” said Laura Rainier, Senior Director Analyst with the Gartner Supply Chain practice. “Leading supply chains are embracing AI not simply to automate tasks, but to fundamentally redesign how work gets done between people and machines.”

Please click here to read the complete article. 

The company said it has spent more than three years deploying artificial intelligence across its business and is now expanding those efforts to support customers and simplify cross-border shipping.

“After 118 years of reinventing logistics, we have entered a defining moment – using AI to simplify how we work across the enterprise, from customer acquisition and onboarding to how we plan, move and deliver,” said Carol B. Tomé, CEO of UPS.

Please click here to read the complete article. 

When the conflict began in late February, with joint strikes launched by the United States and Israel on Iran, in an initiative geared halting Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, various logistics- and supply chain-related issues were raised, including the likelihood of higher energy prices, which came to fruition, but are now seeing declines, as well as restricted shipping lanes in and around the Middle East, which was seen with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world’s petroleum supply (roughly 20 to 21 million barrels per day) and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The impact of higher energy prices resultant of the conflict quickly became clear, with the national average price per gallon of diesel gasoline getting as high as $5.643 per gallon, for the week of April 6. Prior to that, the highest average price in prior week came during the week of May 9, 2022, when it was at $5.623. What’s more, those high diesel prices led to various logistics services providers upwardly adjusting fuel surcharges and rates to offset the rapid and steep gains in diesel prices.

The impact of the conflict, in terms of U.S.-bound imports departing from Strait of Hormuz-affected ports was significant, with data from Descartes showing that total U.S.-bound imports fell from 1.5M metric tons in May 2025 to 100,591 metric tons in May 20926, for a 93.2% annual decline.

According to a Reuters report, the Strait of Hormuz is starting to reopen, as per this agreement, while there is not a set date for a full return to normal operations. And it added that limited traffic may increase over the next several days, with a complete return to normal likely to take weeks to months.

Under the terms of the MoU between the U.S. and Iran, the nations have established a 60-day negotiation period with the objective of reaching a final settlement, the report stated. And it added that the U.S. will begin lifting its maritime blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz and restore shipping access, with Iran restoring commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and related waterways.

A copy of the text of the MoU posted on social media sites explained that immediately upon the signing of the MoU, the U.S., “will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days,” adding that, “During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final Deal.

The text also stated that Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice-versa.

In a media briefing earlier this week, Gene Seroka, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director, said that with the Strait of Hormuz reopening oil and gas prices could continue to decline, coupled with the possibility that inflation could ease in the coming weeks and months. He also noted that shipping confidence could begin to return as well—with the caveat that shipping lines haven't indicated that they'll move quickly.

“Crew safety remains the priority for the 20,000 seafarers that remain on ships in the Arabian Gulf,” said Seroka. “This is a situation where you definitely don't want to be first in line, and even with a possible reopening, it will take months to normalize schedules, get supply chain back to some semblance of normalcy and clear backlogs.

Meanwhile, in a war-torn region that needs immediate repair of infrastructure and future-proofing facilities across the vast stretch of the Middle East that provide those energy products, we're watching specifically to see how exactly the strait could open up, what it could accommodate. Will there be tolls? Have all those landmines been swept, and do companies in the private sector have the surety from the authorities that their vessels can move unimpeded?”

Addressing how the MoU can bolster shipping efficiency, Paul Bingham, Director, Transportation Consulting, at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told LM that if the ceasefire holds and the threats to shipping not only in the Strait of Hormuz but in the Red Sea are removed, vessels may reroute into the Suez Canal route for trades that today take the much longer Cape of Good Hope route.

“The shorter sailing distances will help free up vessel fleet capacity, putting downward pressure, separate from fuel cost reductions, on maritime shipping rates,” he said. “Similarly, if the ceasefire holds and there are no more threats to air cargo operations in the Middle East, additional air cargo system capacity may be restored closer to pre-war levels, that should also result in lower air cargo rates internationally.”

And he also noted that lower fuel prices will help return U.S. consumer prices to a downward path, perhaps avoiding U.S. Federal Reserve Board interest rate increases that were becoming a concern recently with the spike in U.S. price inflation in the last few months. 

“Lower fuel prices can also enable consumers to spend more of their income on goods and services besides fuel purchases, helping boost demand for other goods in the economy,” he said. “The US economy will benefit from increased non-fuel spending as well as from perhaps greater corporate investment as lower interest rates help lower the cost of capital for firms recently facing higher interest rates.

Supply chain impacts will vary by sector and geography of as more energy-intensive sectors benefit disproportionately from a reduction in fuel costs. There are also sectors such as agriculture who benefit from a return to operation of the Strait of Hormuz, due to not only petroleum commodity market but fertilizers, another big volume global export of the Persian

Gulf that had been disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For some farmers it will come too late as planting season and peak fertilizer prices are already past for this 2026 crop year, but for others globally, reduced fertilizer prices will help in addition to the reductions in fuel prices.”

Looking at this development, as it relates to the importance of supply chain and logistics operations, Josh Steinitz, Chief Strategy Officer, at ShipStation, said that in looking back at the shocks in the pandemic, and then subsequently the Iran conflict and now the post-conflict period, it reinforces the importance of resiliency and thinking around logistics and supply chain in a strategic way, as opposed to it being a commodity function that sits behind a curtain, calling it the cost of doing business.

“It's really the level of importance of logistics and supply chain to a more strategic place in every merchant's business operation,” he said. “It's forced them to think about how they can strategically plan for and differentiate. Every time we have one of these shocks, it kind of is like a step function, where we create a new normal and it doesn't go back to the way things were. It kind of points back to the importance of thinking about this strategically, such as making sure that you have the resilience built into your carrier relationships, your supply chain, your software tools and optimizations across all your platforms and channels with which you sell, so you have a diversity of options, and you're not sort of stuck.”

POLA reported that total monthly volume—at 840,165 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—posted a 17% annual gain, with port officials observing that volumes continued to head up, amid ongoing uncertainty related to trade policy and global supply chains.

Imports, at 449,370 TEU, were up 26% annually, with POLA pointing to lower tariff-related imports in May 2025 as a driver, and exports, at 107,657 TEU, decreased 10% annually, following April’s 132,129 TEU, the highest monthly export tally going back to May 2024. Empty containers, at 283,138 TEU, were up 18% annually. Through the first five months of 2025, POLA said that total volumes, at 4,119,869 TEU, are up 1.4% compared to the same period in 2025— which is around 100% ahead of both last year's pace and the port’s five year average.

On a port-hosted media call this week, POLA Executive Director Gene Seroka described May as a very good month, in terms of volumes, with the 840,165 TEU tally only being surpassed during the pandemic surge.

“This speaks to the key indicators I watch every day: ships in port less than four days, truck turn times improving, and containers moving quickly off our docks,” said Seroka. “Thanks to the waterfront workers, this port's humming, and these numbers tell us something important. Cargo demand is resilient, despite everything happening in the world right now. Cargo is up 17% compared to last May, when changing tariff policy caused many importers to slam on the brakes.”

What’s more, Seroka said that May volume was essentially in line with POLA’s five-year average, with imports accounting for much of the month’s strength. While May imports rose 26% annually, that topped the five-year average, with Seroka observing that the increase serves as an indicator that companies continue to move product through the supply chain at a healthy pace. And he added that consumers are spending, businesses are ordering goods, and manufacturers continue to bring in parts and components, despite the uncertainty across the global economy.

As for exports, he said it is a different story, with volumes down 8% compared to the port’s five-year average and annual declines in six of the last nine months through May, representing a clear sign of the difficult environment facing many U.S. exporters, noted Seroka. For empties, he said that the May comparison, as it was for imports, comes up against a period when tariffs caused many shippers to pull back significantly on their volume.

POLB data: The Port of Long Beach reported that total May volume, at 842,030 TEU, increased 31.7% annually, for the third-busiest May in the port’s history.

Imports, at 418,851 TEU, were up 40% annually, with exports down 32.9%, to 109,168 TEU, with empty containers up 21.8% to 314,012 TEU.

On a year-to-date basis through May, POLB said total volume, at 4,050,247 TEU, is up 0.2% annually, with the port on track to keep pace with its busiest year on record in 2021, when it handled 9,384,368 TEU.

POLB CEO Dr. Noel Hacegaba said in a video message that May was a solid month, despite all of the uncertainty surrounding trade and geopolitical instability throughout the world.

This marks the fifth straight time the Fed has paused the rate, following three consecutive rate cuts through December, with the current rate at its lowest level since 2022. In December, the rate was cut to 3.5%-to-3.75%, which followed the previous two FOMC meetings, in which the federal funds rate was lowered to 4.0%-4.25% and 3.75%-to-4.0%, respectively.

As previously reported by LM, former federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell said in late August that the Fed was possibly open to reducing the rate, which came to fruition in September.

That represented a shift from previous Fed meetings. In late July, it kept the rate at 4.25%-to-4.5%, which marked the fifth time in 2025 rates remained unchanged. Which was preceded by three consecutive rate cuts in 2024, including: a reduction to 4.75%-to-4.5% in September; a reduction from 4.50%-to-4.75% in November; and a reduction to 4.25%-to-4.50% in December.

The FOMC said in a statement that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.

“Productivity growth and capital investment are strong,” it said. “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

In his first public comments regarding the federal funds rate, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said that the Fed recognizes that inflation, which is currently at 4.2%, has been running well ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal for more than five years, adding that persistently high prices are a burden for the American people.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East,” said Warsh. “Productivity growth and capital investment, both strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce. And the unemployment rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed’s long-stated inflation goal of 2 percent. That’s been going on for more than five years. Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue. I am pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.”

Warsh said that going forward the Fed will not be issuing forward guidance, which he said the FOMC agreed was not well-suited to the current policy conjecture. But he did cite the Fed’s SEP (Summary of Economic Progress), which is released in the May, June September, and December meetings.

“In the median projections, real GDP rises at 2.2 percent this year, 2.3 percent next year, and total PCE inflation runs at 3.6 percent this year, 2.3 percent next year,” said Warsh. “The unemployment rate stands at about 4.3 percent.  The median participant judges the appropriate federal funds rate to be at 3.8 percent at the end of this year and 3.6 at the end of next.”

Keith Prather, managing director and co-founder of Armada Corporate Intelligence, told LM that it was not a surprise that the Fed maintained the current rate, noting there is a lot of cover and easy support for a hold right now, with second quarter GDP solid at 3.3%, inflation a little high, and jobs steady.

“They don't need to do anything, let the smoke clear from the ending of the conflict and see what inflation does,” he said. “The hidden factor is that there are some foreign Central Banks that are struggling. The Fed can't move in a vacuum, and they need to let those other Central Banks stabilize their bond markets. Hiking U.S. rates would make their situation worse, which is why I don't think they'll hike in this wave even if a lot of the evidence supported it. [Warsh] wants the market to function as a market, and not get whipsawed by speculation on what the Fed will do.

As previously reported, a Logistics Management reader survey of more than 100 freight transportation, logistics, and supply chain stakeholders found that 63% of respondents felt a rate cut would help, with 37% saying it would not.

Reasons cited for the former included: access to cheaper capital helping the sector and various businesses; reducing interest payments and improving cash flow; spurring housing sector growth; and improving consumer demand, among others. And reasons for the latter included: labor issues not subject to interest rates and deflation, among others.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

The May Van TVI, at 233, fell 9% compared to April and was down 8.3% annually, reported DAT. The Reefer TVI, at 172, was down 10% compared to April and off 15.7% annually, while the Flatbed TVI, at 267, was down 14% compared to April and down 14.7% annually. 

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of May:

• the national average spot van rate was up $0.22 sequentially and $0.90 annually, to $2.89 per mile;
• the national average spot reefer rate was up $0.24 sequentially and up $0.99 annually, to $3.35 per mile;
• the national average flatbed rate increased $0.19 sequentially and $1.07 annually, to $3.65 per mile;
• fuel surcharges remained high, with van at $0.73 per mile, reefer at $0.79 per mile, and flatbed at $0.87 per mile;
• average van linehaul rose $0.20, to $2.16, reefer was up $0.22, to $2.56, and flatbed increased $0.17, to $2.78; and
• the contract van rate, at $2.92 per mile, rose $0.07 over April, and the contract reefer rate, at $3.28 per mile, headed up $0.06, and the contract flatbed rate, at $3.77 per mile, headed up $0.06

DAT highlighted various factors impacting capacity availability in May: the CVSA International Roadcheck inspection blitz Memorial Day weekend, and ongoing immigration enforcement that it said continues to shrink the available driver pool.

“Last month’s lower volumes do not mean May was a weak freight market,” said Dean Croke, principal industry analyst at DAT, in a statement. “The capacity supply has come down to meet demand, and carriers in the spot market are being compensated for it. Add in the migration of capacity toward contract freight for fuel surcharge certainty, and you have a spot market that’s tighter than load volumes alone would suggest.”

In an interview with LM, Croke observed that the CVSA International Roadcheck week set the scene for where rates are currently at, in terms of year-over-year comparisons.

“I think all of the gains we normally see seasonally around the July 4^th holiday season peak has already happened, because rates have stayed relatively stable since [Roadcheck],” he said. “Rates surged up for record week-over-week changes and have stayed there and have not retreated. It really is like we had the July 4th peak early, and the market has not returned. That tells me that demand is still relatively flat, because produce volumes are down around 10% year-to-date. Demand is still not doing anything that we would normally see during produce season. Normally, it is the volume surge that drives rates up to July 4, but it is not happening this year. It is still the capacity story that happened during RoadCheck Week.”

Looking ahead into this summer, Croke said that there is a chance rates could ease, as the market has already seen the volatility, or the “worst of it.” The reason for that, he said, is because if demand stays at its current level, it could lead to a scenario where competing forces of carriers are jettisoned out of the market, due to federal government enforcement efforts. Which are offset by softer demand and things stay relatively flat through the summer. Croke said that is based on the theory that a lot of the exodus of capacity that should not be in the industry has already happened.

Croke attributed current market conditions to what he called a two-tiered economy, with consumer spending numbers not stellar, while industrial manufacturing flatbed freight is very strong. To that end, he cited data from Dr. Jason Miller, Michigan State University Supply Chain professor, which observed that, “absolute payroll levels have fallen to where they were in early 2013. The problem is that we are moving 2018 levels of freight. As such, capacity is off by about 25k (5%) from where it needs to be for the market to be in equilibrium.”

With record-high spot rates attracting headlines, Croke said that in conversations with carriers they are saying that those rates are in tandem with higher inflation, which has been fairly high going back to the pandemic, coupled with spending power in 2026 not as strong as it was in 2018. And in a carrier viability index he created, Croke said that when looking at current carrier profit margins and adjust operating costs for the increase in inflation, it comes in at $1.22 per mile, which is well below where they were at the start of the pandemic, when rates were at $1.53 per mile.

“Even though rates are up, it is the fact that carriers are still not making as much money as they were when rates were lower,” he said. “That is the  squeeze that carriers talk about the most. People may say, ‘rates are at record-highs, why are you complaining?’, but the dollar is not going as far as it used to. I think that is a story that needs to be told, with higher costs affecting everybody, and truckers in particular.”

For carriers, it explained that BidBoardX provides them with direct access to CHR’s portfolio of longer-term committed freight opportunities, with carriers looking for better access to committed freight, dependable opportunities, and predictable revenue streams. And for shippers CHR said that it gives them a needed strategic carrier base and operational options, with shippers looking for more reliable coverage on critical lanes, a broader pool of carriers that fit their needs, and more service consistency.   

“C.H. Robinson works with carriers of all sizes that have different needs,” said Adam McDonough, Vice President for Capacity at C.H. Robinson. “Small carriers want consistent, predictable revenue opportunities, while mid- to large-size carriers want to optimize their networks. With BidBoardX, they get direct access to the opportunities that best fit their business needs, including local or short haul, dedicated freight, and our Drop Trailer Plus and 4PL programs. That’s how we connect unmet supply and demand and create significantly more value in the marketplace.”

McDonough provided LM with a detailed overview of BidBoardX in the Q&A below.

LM: What drove the need for CHR to roll out BidBoardX?

McDonough: Carriers are looking for more access to steady, high-density freight. At the same time, shippers are looking for consistency in a trucking market they know is tightening. BidBoardX is a response to both of those needs. It brings more structured freight into one place so carriers can evaluate and bid more efficiently, while helping shippers access a wider, more competitive pool of capacity. It takes something that’s been fragmented and makes it a lot more connected. We’re able to bring together committed freight from across a broad set of customers and make it accessible in one place, which is hard to replicate.

LM: How long had it been planned/in the works?

McDonough: We developed BidBoardX internally first, and the proof of concept was a huge success. Piloting the carrier-facing version with a group of shippers and carriers for the past few months, what stood out is how quickly carriers engaged once they could actually see and compare these types of opportunities. It validated for us that there’s real demand for something more structured than the traditional spot-market loadboard. Last year we had over 13,000 bids on committed freight from over 3,000 carriers working through their reps. Since we launched BidBoardX at the end of May, carriers are bidding twice as often as they were before.

LM: What are the main benefits of this offering for shippers and carriers?

McDonough: With freight demand not growing appreciably but carriers’ operating costs continuing to rise, getting access to steady, dependable freight is especially good for their business right now. For shippers, they’ve enjoyed ample trucking capacity for more than three years—a historically long stretch of excess capacity. Stricter enforcement of CDL and visa rules is now accelerating what had been a gradual winnowing of carriers from the market, so route guides are starting to fail. Shippers are increasingly running through all the preferred carriers in their route guide without getting their loads covered.

In these conditions, shippers are eager to have capacity they can count on and carriers are eager to have freight they can count on. For carriers, the biggest benefit of BidBoardX is visibility. Instead of piecing together freight one load at a time, they can see opportunities that fit how they want to run or expand their network. When you open up those opportunities to more carriers – especially ones that are a strong network fit – we can really home in on matching them with the ideal carrier from our broad and diverse pool of qualified carriers. So, it’s really a two-sided benefit: carriers can operate more efficiently, and shippers get dependable service.

LM: Can you please provide a basic example of how BidBoardX works/is used?

McDonough: Carriers can request access either through the Navisphere Carrier app or website. After that, it’s easy to find freight they might be interested in, whether it’s 40 flatbed loads in one month, 240 short hauls or 2,400 drop trailer loads over a year. They can search by origin, destination, length of haul, equipment type and the start date for the contract. For each opportunity, they can see how many loads are available over what period of time and details like whether it’s live load or drop trailer. Carriers receive feedback on their bids and negotiations, and once a bid is accepted, we contact them to confirm the award and get them started. On our side, we’re working with shippers to make sure the right carriers are seeing the right opportunities and that it’s advantageous to both parties.

LM: What are the next steps, or future plans, for BidBoardX?

McDonough: Right now, we’re focused on getting word to carriers that these opportunities from our portfolio of committed freight are now visible to them and getting word to shippers that carriers are hungry for this type of freight.

As the truckload market tightens and rates rise, we’re confident that more and more shippers will want to offer committed freight. The spot market is still essential because most shippers will have some unplanned or sporadic freight, whether it’s because demand for a particular product is higher than projected or they get a new customer or their preferred carriers start getting more selective about the loads they’ll take. But if a shipper has loads, we can bundle together in a lane, we can get them covered on BidBoardX cost-effectively and reliably without turning to the spot market, even if they’re spread across more than one carrier. One of the great things about BidBoardX is that a shipper doesn’t have to rely on finding a single carrier that can take the entirety of their committed freight, but they can still get the entirety of their committed freight covered.

Over time, this becomes less about a single tool and more about how the market operates. The ability to connect carriers and shippers around more predictable, network-aligned freight at scale is something we think will continue to expand and evolve from here.

Company officials said that this move gives Echo with the ability to provide shippers with what they called a completely unified, end-to-end supply chain offering south of the border—adding that shippers will now be able to leverage Echo’s city-to-city freight transportation, port drayage, domestic intermodal corridors, and localized managed transportation services through a single logistics partner.

“By formally adding intra-Mexico transportation to our existing portfolio, Echo has solidified its position as a true end-to-end supply chain integrator for the region,” said Troy Ryley, President of Echo Mexico, in a statement. “Historically, shippers had to navigate multiple fragmented suppliers to manage cross-border legs, border warehousing, customs clearance, and domestic Mexican distribution. By bringing intra-Mexico logistics and our EchoXBorder customs brokerage under one roof, we are eliminating those boundaries and providing a level of visibility and operational consistency previously unavailable in this market.”

Ryley told LM that this expansion was driven by existing client demand, leading Echo to build and expand its new portfolio of services. 

“We believe by adding more depth to our existing truck brokerage services we can solve many of the complexities our client’s experience with cross-border trade,” he said.

And prior to this announcement, Ryley noted that Echo did not previously offer intra-Mexico services, explaining that this is a new product billed in Mexican Pesos for domestic Mexico services, comprised of inbound Mexico port container services, plant to plant movements and domestic DC distribution solving a multitude of client challenges. 

From a competitive perspective, Ryley said that Echol can now create very complex integrated solutions for its clients unlike many of its competitors. 

"We can build door-to-door solutions that include transportation, customs brokerage on both sides of the border, warehouse and distribution at the border and in country along with intra Mexico last leg delivery," he said. "This is tailored to our clients' individual needs."

Looking ahead, Ryley observed that Echo will continue to link its transportation services to its intra-Mexico warehousing and distribution capabilities along with managed transportation services. 

Ruben Gamboa, Director of Commercial Development, Mexico & Southern Border, at Echo, said that the company’s investments in Mexico are purpose-built to bring the same level of operational excellence and scalable infrastructure Echo’s clients rely on in the U.S. directly into their Mexican operations.

“By deploying city-to-city transport, port drayage, intermodal, and managed transportation solutions tailored for the Mexican market, we are giving both local Mexican enterprises and international shippers the robust domestic infrastructure they need to scale safely, without the operational friction typically found when dealing with traditional localized logistics,” he said.

In recent years, Echo has continued to build up its presence in Mexico.

In January, it rolled out EchoXBorder (Echo Cross-Border), which is comprised of customs brokerage services across U.S. and Mexico, consolidation, deconsolidation, and inventory control at the border, and integrated customs and freight management for end-to-end control.

And in September 2025, the company officially opened up a new Monterrey, Mexico-based cross-border office, as part of an ongoing commitment by the company focused on expanding its presence in Mexico.

This follows a March 2024 announcement, in which Echo expanded its cross-border services in Mexico, following eight years of managing southern border shipping services. As key parts of this expansion, the company said, at the time, that it has set up new locations in Mexico City, Monterrey, and Laredo, Texas, and also tapped 30-year logistics veteran Ryley as President, Echo Mexico. Ryley has deep experience managing and scaling large teams, as well as extensive knowledge in developing integrated U.S.-Mexico logistics offerings. And this past March, the company officially opened the doors to a new Mexico City-based office.

Ryley told LM last year that Echo’s Mexico division provides Cross-Border and southern border truck brokerage, and U.S. and Mexican Customs Brokerage. He also noted that Echo’s Mexico division also offers the same diversity of services that its U.S. solutions have including Managed Transportation, Warehousing and Distribution, and cargo insurance through EchoInsure+Mexico.

In a previous interview with LM, Echo CEO Doug Waggoner said that the company’s initiatives in Mexico have been very positive for the company, driven by its investments there.

“We're adding facilities and people, and we're getting better penetration into the market,” he said. “And there has been a trend towards near showing long before the tariff noise came up. We see it as sort of a target-rich environment. We feel like we're penetrating that market. We've got growth numbers to prove it, and we're excited about it.

As for how far along Echo’s business efforts are in Mexico, he said the company has added a lot of people, in addition to its facilities in Mexico City and one in Monterey and is also building its carrier network.

“We're also implementing some specialized technology for the Mexico intra-country brokerage business,” he said. “Those things are all sort of being rolled out now. Even though we've got pretty good growth, it was on a fairly low base.”

May retail sales, at $763.7 billion, eked out a 0.9% gain over April and were up 6.9% annually, with total retail sales from March through May seeing a 5.3% gain compared to the same period a year ago.

The Census bureau reported that retail trade sales rose 1.0% sequentially and 7.5% annually, and non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce, increased 12.2% annually. Food services and drinking places headed up 2.7% annually.

This data was in line with the new edition of the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which was released on June 9, and powered by Affinity Solutions.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor found that total May core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline stations, saw a 0.42% seasonally-adjusted, sequential gain, while rising 7.19% on an unadjusted basis annually in May, compared to April’s respective 0.34% and 5.53% sequential and annual gains. And it added that total retail sales increased 6.29% annually on a year-to-date basis through May, with core retail sales up 6.19%, for the same period.

The report added that its data is based on actual anonymized credit and debit card purchase data from Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised on a monthly or annual basis.

“Retail sales maintained momentum in May, driven by a resilient labor market and consumers’ continued willingness to spend on retail goods despite pressure from elevated gas prices, tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “As support from this year’s large tax refunds fades, consumers are prioritizing essentials and finding creative ways to stretch their household budgets. To support them, retailers are actively engaging their supply chains and supplier networks to keep prices affordable.”

Looking at individual retail sales segments, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor observed that May sales rose in nearly every category it tracks:

• Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.05% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 11.59% year over year unadjusted;
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.6% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 10.25% year over year unadjusted;
• Health and personal care stores were up 0.45% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.87% year over year unadjusted;
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.25% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.59% year over year unadjusted;
• General merchandise stores were up 0.41% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.28% year over year unadjusted;
• Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 1.22% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.79% year over year unadjusted; and
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.48% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.01% year over year unadjusted

NRF Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold recently told LM that with retail sales showing relatively steady growth, it runs counter to softer consumer sentiment.

“Consumers continue to spend on retail goods,” he said. “Obviously, the tax refunds in March exceeded last year's refunds by over $20 billion spurring spending across discretionary and essential goods despite rising gas prices. Inflation remains elevated as tariffs and gas prices weigh on the cost of goods. Despite headwinds, consumers still are still out there spending.”

The national average price per gallon, for the week of June 15, dropped 15.1 cents, following a 14.0-cent decline, to $5.210, for the week of June 8, a 17.3-cent decline, to $5.350, for the week of June 1, which marked steepest weekly decline since the week of April 20, when the national average fell 20.5 cents, from $5.608 to $5.403, for the largest weekly decline in more than three years, according to EIA data.

Prior to that, the national average price per gallon, for the week of May 25, at $5.523 per gallon, fell 7.3 cents compared to the week of May 18, which came in at $5.596, and was off 4.3 cents compared to the week of May 11, at $5.639. which eked out a $0.001-cent sequential gain. That followed a 28.9-cent cent sequential gain, for the week of May 4, when it came in at $5.640, which represented the largest sequential increase since the week of March 16, when it increased $0.21.

For the week of April 27, the national average decreased 5.2 cents, to $5.351, and for the week of April 20, it fell 20.5 cents, to $5.403, marking the highest weekly decline, since the week of December 22, 2008, when it fell 24.5 cents, and a 3.5-decline decline to $5.608, for the week of April 13.

Prior to the week of May 4, the highest average price in any week since came during the week of May 9, 2022, when it was at $5.623 per gallon. Prices continue to remain elevated, due to the launched joint strikes by the United States and Israel, in an initiative geared towards halting Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.

Various reports cited declining oil prices yesterday, after a preliminary agreement was reached between the U.S. and Iran, while full details of the agreement have yet to be released.

EIA officials said that the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of the world’s petroleum supply (roughly 20 to 21 million barrels per day) and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). It added that due to recent conflicts, this vital energy chokepoint has experienced significant blockades and military standoffs, leading to major global supply disruptions and price volatility.

Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote in a series of social media post that the preliminary deal led to a 5% decline in oil prices yesterday, adding that gas stations will start lowering prices this week, following that decline, which could take up to a week or two to pass on, with that caveat that things, “could quickly reverse if the deal unravels.”

The 2026 State of Logistics (SoL) report finds persistent disruptions on everything, from wars to energy sources to worker shortages are forming a new supply chain paradigm of persistent disruption that has emerged for shippers and logistics providers.

Entitled “Forged in Disruption,” the 37^th annual SoL report concluded that only the most successful individuals and companies are adapting to this challenging business environment.

The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) released its findings today during a press briefing at the Empire State Building. The publication is authored annually by global consulting firm Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics, a leading supply chain solutions provider.

The latest SoL report provides a snapshot of the American economy through the prism of the supply chain sector. Notable facts from this year’s report include:

• U.S. business logistics costs came in at $2.4 trillion, amounting to 7.8% of the national GDP. In 2025, those numbers were $2.6 trillion and 8.7% of GDP;
• There are five structural forces that define the macro environment and show no signs of resolution: Asymmetrical global growth; tightening financial conditions due to persistent inflation and rising public debt; accelerating trade flow and geoeconomic realignment; labor market and productivity constraints and energy price volatility; and
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) has made the crossover from a technology to try, to one that delivers measurable commercial returns in specific, well-defined applications.

The report observed that AI use in the supply chain crafts value via four capabilities: Interpreting, predicting, recommending and executing. Adoption of AI remains “uneven” by shippers and logistics providers across the supply chain, with a large gap between companies that have placed AI into core workflows vs. those still restricted to isolated point solutions, with many having none at all. It also noted that companies are responding to labor constraints with accelerated use of automation and digital investments in AI.

The new SoL report provides some strategic implications that can be applied to the current environment including: Design for resilience, not just efficiency; prioritizing asset productivity over footprint expansion; intelligence, and the competitive capabilities that accompany end-to-end visibility; accelerating digital and automation return on investment (ROI) and reassessing capital structure and investment pacing.

“This year’s report arrives at a moment when the forces reshaping global supply chains are no longer temporary disruptions, but enduring features of the operating environment,” said Korhan Acar, Kearney partner and lead author for the State of Logistics Report, said in a statement.

Rising costs driven by energy volatility, inflation, and geopolitical instability are placing pressure on margins and “forcing leaders to rethink traditional operating models,” Acar said.

“At the same time, we’ve reached a genuine turning point in the autonomous era. AI, robotics and autonomous trucking are moving rapidly from pilots to scaled deployment,” Acar added.

Against this backdrop, profitable growth has become the defining priority. The companies that will lead are those combining resilience, intelligent logistics, and disciplined execution to protect margins and outperform in an increasingly volatile world, Acar concluded.

Stacy Schlachter, senior vice president of sales for Penske Logistics, said: “The report captures the essence of how we are helping our customers meet the realities of rising cost pressures and ongoing supply chain turbulence with the technology and solutions they need to accelerate performance.”

Mark Baxa, CSCMP president and CEO, concluded: “The supply chain of right now is incredibly complex and requires a series of constant adjustments. This year’s State of Logistics Report, expertly crafted by Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics, paints an accurate picture of the myriad dynamics of managing a logistics network constructed to navigate the current business and geopolitical landscape. Last year’s supply chain looks different than today’s supply chain. I surmise that next year’s logistics network will be hardly recognizable.”

The report, entitled “Reshaping: Third-Party Logistics in a Decade of Structural Change,” said that U.S. 3PL Market net revenues, which Armstrong defines as gross revenues less purchased transportation, increased 5.1% annually in 2025, to $138.2 billion, topping the 1.8% 2024 annual gain, to $131.5 billion.

And it added that 2025 gross revenues headed up 5.0% annually, coming in at $323.4 billion (with the final tally including $4.5 billion for the contract logistics software), for the four segments of the 3PL market—Dedicated Contract Carriage, or DCC, (also known as asset-based transportation), Value-Added Warehousing and Distribution (VAWD), International Transportation Management (ITM), and Domestic Transportation Management (DTM), which includes freight brokerage, managed transportation, intermodal transportation management, and last-mile delivery. This came in ahead of a 2.8% annual gain in 2024, with the firm saying this growth path confirms that the freight recession, which commenced toward the end of 2022, is nearing its conclusion, with growth being forecasted through 2027.

Armstrong reported the following for 2025 U.S. 3PL Market Growth by segment:

• DTM gross revenue, at $128.3 billion, up 4.5% annually, and net revenue, at $19.6 billion, up 3.0% annually;
• ITM gross revenue, at $85.9 billion, up 7.7% annually, and net revenue, at $30.4 billion, up 11.0% annually;
• DCC gross revenue, at $32.0 billion, up 1.6% annually, and net revenue, also at $32.0 billion, up 2.5% annually; and
• VAWD gross revenue, at $72.7 billion, up 4.4% annually, and net revenue, at $56.1 billion, up 4.4% annually

In an interview with LM, Evan Armstrong, President of Armstrong & Associates, described 2025 as a “pretty good” growth year, for a few different reasons.

"On the ITM side, with air and freight forwarding, there have been the gyrations with the tariffs, which means the more complexity there is, it is usually better for 3PLs,” he said. There on-again and off-again tariffs, followed by the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling, the current global tariff rate is now at around 11% across-the-board, which is manageable—and with all of the shifts in tariffs, it was good for freight forwarders and their compliance and customs brokerage departments that had to manage it all.”

As for domestic transportation, Armstrong pointed to ongoing activity related to motor carrier revocations, and carriers that could not pay their insurance, which tightened carrier capacity, which has been good for freight brokers.

“If shippers can’t find trucks, they turn to freight brokers, and if there is excess capacity, then shippers can find carriers on their own, leaving less of a need for brokers,” said. “When you get into tight capacity situations like we are in now, it benefits brokers and leads to decent growth. Following the Montgomery ruling and what happened in terms of carrier vetting and hiring carriers, we expect pretty good growth in freight brokerage throughout this year.”  

Regarding VAWD, the report highlighted how warehouse vacancy rates are stabilizing, coupled with slowing rent growth, and changes in tenant requirements, due to tariff-related adjustments. What’s more, it added that the market is rebalancing after “extraordinary tightness” in 2021 and 2022.

“Despite overall economic uncertainty, demand for warehouse space has been even-keeled,” the report said. “There has been a surge in demand for big-box facilities exceeding 500,000 square-feet, fueled by e-commerce [3PLs], manufacturers, and increasingly, data center tenants vying for the same industrial land.”

Looking ahead, Armstrong expects a similar annual growth track, for U.S. 3PL gros revenue, with: total gross revenue, pegged at $336.9 billion, up 5.6% annually; DTM, at $139.0 billion, up 8.3%; ITM, at $89.4 billion, up 4.1%; DCC, at $75.2 billion, up 3.5%; and VAWD, at $75.2 billion, up 3.5%.

“We’re going to see lower ocean and air freight forwarding growth, especially now that it looks like there may be a deal in place to end the Iran conflict,” said Armstrong. “DTM could lead the growth, given the tight capacity and following the Supreme Court ruling.”

Called the American Supply Chain Sovereignty Initiative, the proposed program would connect ports, ocean carriers, trucking companies, railroads, and major retailers through a centralized freight visibility platform to help move goods faster and more efficiently.

According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the initiative would launch a high-visibility dashboard that links major freight hubs, including the Port of Los Angeles, with supply chain partners to help identify bottlenecks more quickly and speed cargo processing.

“When it comes to our supply chains, time is money. Fewer delays mean lower costs throughout the entire supply chain,” Duffy said. “The American Supply Chain Sovereignty Initiative will prevent bottlenecks, move freight faster, and deliver goods more affordably for the American people.”

Please click here to read the complete article. 

May imports, at 2.58 million (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) increased 13.5% annually, while topping April by 5.4% (well ahead of the 2.1% five-year average for May), the firm noted, adding that it could be a signal that Peak Season shipping started earlier than usual, in advance of Amazon’s Prime Day promotions, which are happening a month earlier than in past years. On a year-to-date basis through May, U.S.-bound containerized imports, at 12.02 million TEU, are off 0.7% annually. The firm said May’s annual gain serves as what it called the lapping of the end of the pre-tariff front-loading period, when May 2025 imports dropped 6.3% annually.

In addition to indications of earlier Peak Season shipping activity, S&P Global Market Intelligence explained that importers are front-loading inventory prior to Section 301 tariffs possibly taking effect by late July. Which was evidenced by a 44.0% annual gain for consumer durables imports in May, that, it said, “points to stronger-term arrivals but a higher risk of a slowdown once July-onward duties take effect.”

The firm cited the following metrics for April U.S.-bound import activity:

• Consumer durables up 44.0%, spurred on by a 65.2% annual gain in home furnishings, an 18.0% increase in leisure goods, including toys and exercise equipment, and a 13.7% annual gain in household appliances;
• Paper and forest products rose 2.5%, following a 15.1% April decline;
• Building materials were up 0.1%, following a 34.0% May decline;
• Industrial machinery grew by 6.8, following a 25.3% May decline; and
• Consumer staples, which the firm said are “generally exempt” from tariffs, saw food and beverages increase 5.6%, while home and personal care goods were down 6.7%

In an interview with LM, Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that the timing of Liberation Day in April 2025 is still having an impact, in that May 2025 U.S.-bound imports were down 6% annually, whereas they rose 13.5% in May 2026.

“Even allowing for that, we are still probably about 6% above May 2024, so this [May 2026] wasn’t just ‘it was bad last year,’; it is also ‘it is good this year,’” he said. “And the reason for that is because of tariff-related front-loading. Right now, you’re paying a 10% tariff, and there is an expectation that there is a chance that going into the end of July that may increase, related to the Section 301 forced labor tariffs, with the Section 301 excess manufacturing, which is how you get from 10% to 20%, going to take a bit longer. Whether that's because the Trump administration have kind of lost its appetite for tariffs or because inflation is pretty high, you really don't want to be putting up import taxes and boosting inflation.”

Addressing the 44% jump in consumer durables imports, Rogers explained it is somewhat cargo-specific, in that for certain types of products, like flat-pack furniture and non-fashionable clothing, for example, can be put in a warehouse. But whereas for other goods like home and personal care, food, and industrial parts, which could sit on a store shelf, Rogers said companies are very sensitive to maintaining industrial inventories that they don’t need.

“I think that is what is happening, with imports being driven by that, but additionally we have seen a more marked downturn on some of those lines,” he said. “When we talk about these new tariffs, the Section 122s and Section 301s affect consumer products. If it is autos, steel and aluminum, and pharmaceutical, they each have separate tariffs that are more stable.”

What’s more, consumer electronics, the one consumer durable group that was down in May, is the one with no tariffs, noted Rogers.

As for other import types, Rogers said that they came within what he called the normal range of fluctuation—in the plus or minus 3% range over a quarter or a year, but month-over-month, it could be plus or minus 6%.

Slowly but surely, a replacement for the federal highway use reauthorization bill is shaping up in Washington. The current law expires Sept. 30 and will likely be replaced in the short term by an extension at current funding levels.

Passing a new highway bill would rank as one of the few achievements of this Congress, which has been marked by partisan squabbling, government shutdowns, inefficiency and the off-year election.

The House of Representatives Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I) Committee passed a five-year, $580 billion surface transportation reauthorization bill after a marathon 15-hour legislative markup session in late May. The T&I committee adopted the bill by a 62-2 vote with three members not voting.

The result is the Building Unrivaled Infrastructure and Long-term Development (BUILD) America 250 Act. It is a five-year surface transportation reauthorization bill that would authorize roughly $580 billion for highway and rail programs through fiscal year 2031.

“You can’t have a big-league economy with little-league infrastructure,” Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), the committee’s ranking member, said in a statement. “The BUILD America 250 Act will create good paying jobs while restoring aging bridges, repairing crumbling roads, and supporting safe, accessible rail, transit and bike infrastructure.”

 The highway bill would:

• Create a $130 annual registration fee for electric vehicles (EVs) and $35 plug-in hybrids to provide supplemental funding for the Highway Trust Fund. Both fees will increase by $5 every two years beginning in 2029, capped at $150 and $50, respectively. This tax is anathema to many Republicans, who could kill it;
• Create a path for heavier trucks. It would establish a voluntary pilot program allowing states to opt in to increase weight limits on federal interstates up to 91,000 pounds gross vehicle weight on six axles for single combination vehicles that are bridge formula compliant;
• Allow stinger-steered combination automobile transporters to operate at a gross weight of 88,000 pounds and allow up to a 10 percent increase above that limit;
• Establish a $150 million fund for truck parking;
• Increase oversight of predatory lease-purchase agreements;
• Extend “Principal Place of Business” requirements to brokers and other registered entities, with penalties;
•  Codify a cargo-theft task force and boost enforcement around electronic logging device certification; 
• Establish a federal policy framework for autonomous commercial motor vehicles; and
• Require shipper or receiver facilities to allow truckers to use their restrooms

The highway bill debate also included a White House-supported amendment that added rail safety legislation originally championed by then-Senator JD Vance following the Norfolk Southern derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. Among other provisions, the amendment would mandate two-person crews on freight trains. It passed 54–11, with Chair Graves voting against it. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) opposed the amendment, while the Sheet Metal Air Rail Transportation Division (SMART-TD) union supported it.

Trucking interests applauded the T&I committee’s passage of the bill.

“Our focus throughout this process has been to ensure that the final bill promotes a safe, efficient transportation system that is befitting the world’s greatest nation.  This legislation fulfills that goal,” American Trucking Associations President Chris Spear said in a statement.

The slowdown appears to be the Senate. Despite progress in the House, Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W. Va.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), leaders of the Environment and Public Works Committee, indicated they have not yet discussed a top-line funding figure. As a result, a temporary extension of the current bill appears increasingly likely ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline.

Roughly $106 billion of the bill’s funding would be subject to annual appropriations because – unlike the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act or IIJA, the current five-year reauthorization package from 2021, the BUILD America 250 Act does not include General Fund advance appropriations. This requires funding to be approved every year.

This is how BUILD America 250 would break down over five years by mode:

• *The Federal Highway Administration: $376 billion over five years;
• * The Federal Transit Administration: $87.6 billion;
• * The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: $5.7 billion;
• * The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration: $5 billion;
• * The Federal Railroad Administration: $64.7 billion, including $31.1 billion for Amtrak.
•   The proposed legislation establishes a revised bridge formula program funded at $9.2 billion per year from the Highway Trust Fund and authorizes $2 billion per year for the “Bridge Completion Program” from the General Fund, subject to future appropriations.

“This bill makes historic investments in our bridges and other critical infrastructure, reduces costs and delays in building, ensures states have the resources and flexibility they need, bolsters the Highway Trust Fund, fosters innovation, and provides a framework for safely integrating autonomous commercial motor vehicles onto our highways,” Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.), chair of the House T&I committee, said in a statement.

Russell McMurry, the 2025-2026 president of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and commissioner of the Georgia Department of Transportation, praised how the bill served as “an essential and a bipartisan acknowledgement of the need for maintaining the continuity and reliability of infrastructure projects and programs” delivered by state departments of transportation.

“The BUILD America 250 Act reflects many of AASHTO’s core policy principles,” he said in a statement, “such as streamlining programs with common objectives, enhancing the efficiency of environmental review and permitting processes to expedite project delivery, and upholding formula-based federal funding to states and other initiatives supported by the long-standing user pay model that supports the Highway Trust Fund.”

The Department of Transportation has released its 2026 National Freight Strategic Plan (NFSP) to modernize the nation’s nearly seven-million-mile cargo transportation network – a multimodal network that moves more than 54 million tons of goods daily valued at more than $68 billion across America.

The agency said this new freight plan is centered around six primary strategic goals over the next five years:

 1. Reduce or eliminate serious injuries and fatalities of the freight system.

 2.   Improve system reliability and streamline government regulation.

 3. Ensure the integrity of the nation’s supply chains in support of national defense and economic prosperity.

 4. Reduce risks to the freight system and improve our response approaches.

 5. Modernize freight infrastructure and foster game changing technologies.

 6.  Build a skilled workforce for the 21st century and improve quality of life.

“It’s not just about moving goods—it’s about securing our energy supply chains, protecting our industries from cargo theft, and stocking shelves for American families,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in a statement. “This plan will bolster our nation’s supply chains and unleash energy to make life more affordable and convenient for everyday Americans.”

Rail carloads, at 228,076, saw a 1.0% annual gain, trailing the weeks ending May 30 and May 23, at 228,346, and 230,861, respectively.

AAR reported that six of the 10 carload commodity groups it tracks saw annual gains: metallic ores and metals, up 1,868 carloads, to 22,295; grain, up 1,847 carloads, to 21,867; and motor vehicles and parts, up 980 carloads, to 16,936. Commodity groups posting annual declines included coal, down 2,426 carloads, to 55,727; miscellaneous carloads, down 830 carloads, to 9,173; and chemicals, down 572 carloads, to 32,110.

Weekly intermodal containers and trailers, at 293,728 units, saw a 13.6% annual increase, topping the weeks ending May 30 and May 23, at 264,449, and 292,743, respectively.

Through the first 22 weeks of 2026, AAR reported that U.S. rail carloads, at 4,984,985, are up 3.3% annually, and intermodal units, at 6,113,730 units, are up 2.3% annually.

The EO explained that customs enforcement is viewed as essential to U.S. national security, foreign policy, and economy, adding that effective customs enforcement prevents the importation of unlawful and dangerous goods, ensures importers of record (IORs) are correctly identified and accountable for duties owed; and guarantees compliance with numerous federal laws, including laws that govern forced labor, rules of origin, origin marking, intellectual property, revenue collection, and product safety.

“Customs reform is long overdue,” the EO stated. “Systemic inefficiencies, loopholes, insufficient enforcement mechanisms, and outdated processes have created opportunities for malign actors to evade Federal law.  Examples of noncompliance include undervaluing imports, withholding critical information about IORs and the goods being imported, and avoiding payment of duties through various arrangements and schemes.  These actions threaten national security, undermine foreign relations, disadvantage domestic businesses, and harm Americans.

The United States must strengthen its customs enforcement through comprehensive reform, including through agency action and legislation.  Such reform should focus on protecting national security, promoting lawful trade, ensuring the timely collection of duties, modernizing systems and processes, bolstering compliance mechanisms, increasing transparency, and protecting Americans and the domestic economy.”

Key mandates within the EO include:

• Within 180 days of the EO being issued, an IOR is required to maintain a minimum level of tangible domestic assets, bonds, or both, as determined by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to be necessary to ensure compliance with U.S. Customs and trade laws, and increase the minimum required bond coverage for an IOR;
• Require an IOR to provide CBP with additional data and identification information, including anticipated import volumes, year organized, ownership and beneficial ownership disclosures, business affiliation disclosures, and domestic asset disclosures;
• Creates stricter rules for foreign IORs and companies importing higher volumes of low-value articles and are less familiar with U.S. customs and trade laws and face lower penalty amounts and financial consequences for non-compliance, with foreign IORs no longer able to be able to use the simpler informal entry process for low-value imports, face stricter formal-entry requirements, not rely on continuous customs bonds without the approval of CBP, and IORs may be required to participate in or use brokers that are validated through CBP’s C-TPAT program;
• Require all IORs to maintain “good standing” based on compliance history, payment of required customs liabilities and prior violations;
• Establish heightened import disclosure and certification requirements, including certifying compliance with critical supply chain requirements like the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act, disclosing certain foreign tax and global business identifiers and providing detailed information about the imported good’s supply chain and production methods, such as the manufacturer’s product identifier (e.g., model or style number) or key specifications (e.g., composition, grade, or size); and
• Take necessary steps to bolster the enforcement of customs laws, regulations, and other mandates, including conditions necessary for participation in the CTPAT program and also include actions enforcing liquidated damages claims against bonds for noncompliance; restricting in-bond utilization; increasing audits; and imposing maximum penalties for brokers who, for example, fail to conduct due diligence, repeatedly represent noncompliant clients, or fail to cooperate in a timely manner with requests for information by CBP and take all appropriate action to prioritize the enforcement of Federal law relating to importations involving products produced by forced labor, and importations involving misclassification, undervaluation, and illegal transshipment, including investigations conducted pursuant to the Enforce and Protect Act, among others

In a LinkedIn post, Pete Mento, Director of Global Trade Management Services, at Baker Tilly, was bullish about the EO, in terms of how it benefits the customs brokerage community, calling in a beautiful moment.

“The new Executive Order is being discussed as a trade enforcement measure, but for customs brokers it feels a little different,” wrote Mento. “It feels like the federal government just discovered every concern we’ve been raising for the last twenty years. The entire order is built around a concept customs brokers understand instinctively: At some point, somebody has to be responsible. For the duties. For the records. For the classification. For the valuation. For the origin. And most importantly, for answering the phone when CBP calls.”

Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy, Global Trade Intelligence, at Descartes, told LM that this EO raises the bar from filing the entry to being able to prove the claim, for things related to increased CBP scrutiny for out-of-origin claims, tariff classifications, customs valuation, and importer documentation.

“Importers should expect more scrutiny across all of these dimensions, as CBP will likely focus on whether supplier records, product data, invoices, broker instructions and shipping documents all tell the same story,” noted Wood. “The EO demonstrates that enforcement is moving from transactional reviews to program-level accountability. CBP is not only looking for incorrect entries; it is also going to evaluate whether companies have the controls, data, documentation and governance to support the claims they make at the border.”

As for what customs brokers, importers, freight forwarders, and logistics services provider need to do to prepare for the EO’s directives, Wood said that the most important things is a shift from a filing” mindset to an evidence mindset’.

“All parties need to know who is responsible for what, specific details of products, country of origin, valuation, and ultimately how all of this is documented and ready to withstand deep scrutiny from CBP,” he said. “Customs compliance is playing an expanded role in economic security architecture. Governments across the globe want to know where goods are made, who controls the supply chain, whether tariffs and other trade controls are being evaded, and whether imports create exposure to forced labor, sanctions or strategic dependency.”

Until now, Amazon’s LTL service has mainly handled inbound freight moving into Amazon facilities.

With the expansion, businesses of all sizes can now use the service for a wider range of shipments, including freight moving between their own facilities or to third-party locations.

Please click here to read the complete article. 

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) says Motus is “a modern, secure platform” that allows businesses to easily manage vehicle registrations and control authorized access all in one place.

FMCSA Administrator Derek Barrs calls it his agency’s “line in the sand.” He said by modernizing its registration process for heavy trucks and others, it is actively cracking down on fraud, eliminating the regulatory blind spots that criminals weaponize and restoring integrity to the supply chain.

He called it “a major milestone” to crack down on criminality in supply chain operations.

“We are incredibly proud of this historic modernization effort and confident that Motus is delivering the secure, efficient and powerhouse registration experience our industry has earned,” Barrs said in a statement.

He called it “an extraordinary feat of heavy lifting” that involved transferring more than three decades of data across multiple legacy systems to process millions of motor carriers into one unified powerhouse platform.

In its first week, FMCSA said the system successfully received 120,000 new user applications, processed over 10,000 regulated entity applications and helped more than 13,000 motor carriers claim their DOT numbers.

Creating Motus and tightening systems for truck registration come a couple months after the Supreme Court ruled transportation brokers can be held liable if they select unsafe carriers.

Jason Seidl, transportation analyst for TD Cowen, said federal law does not fully protect brokers, as previously assumed, because safety claims fall under a state-law exception.

“This creates a clear duty for brokers to properly vet carrier safety,” Seidl said in a note to investors. It increases litigation risk and likely raises insurance and vetting costs for the brokerage model, while shifting activity toward compliant asset carriers at the expense of non-compliant ones. We expect this to impact overall over-the-road capacity as standards tighten,” Seidl added, predicting TL carriers would the largest beneficiaries of the Supreme Court ruling.

Barrs indicated that the creation of Motus would aid in the identification and pursuit of bogus motor carriers within the FMCSA universe of more than 700,000 federally registered trucking entities.

“We have launched Motus without compromise,” Barrs said. “We have officially locked the door on bad actors, eliminated the loopholes they weaponized and restored absolute integrity and security to the American supply chain.”

Barrs said the “unprecedented, massive wave of engagement” the agency has seen in its opening few days proves “we are winning this fight” against fraudulent activity.

While acknowledging FMCSA engineering teams were needed at the start to “crush minor technical issues” to optimize the platform for users, Barrs said FMCSA has responded with a “Motus Resources Hub” on its website.

“If your account is already in good standing and you don't need to make immediate administrative changes, you can beat the rush by waiting to log in over the coming weeks as the initial excitement levels out,” Barrs said.

Any entity that requires a DOT number and/or operating authority can use Motus, including:

• Motor Carriers

• Brokers

• Freight Forwarders

• Intermodal Equipment Providers

• Cargo Tank Facilities

Supporting companies that assist entities with registration include blanket companies (BOC-3 filers), financial responsibility filers (such as insurance/surety companies and other financial institutions), transportation service providers

Registrants will be able to do the following processes with Motus:

• Apply for a new DOT Number, operating authority or other type of registration.

• Submit a biennial update.

• Update business information including company name and address.

• Apply for additional types of operating authority or registrations.

• Reinstate a suspended operating authority or reapply after revocation.

• Inactivate or reactivate your DOT number.

• Track the status of your registration actions.

• Easily upload supporting documents while completing an application.

The general public has access to some Motus data as well. It can search for an entity’s registration record in Motus. Through that portal, the public can view the FMCSA Register for daily decisions and notices on motor carriers and others.

The public can also access data through a Transportation.Gov website to download public data on FMCSA-registered entities.

The company has spent the last several years building charging infrastructure, deploying electric trucks and cargo bikes, and redesigning parts of its delivery network around lower-emission transportation.

“The milestone reflects years of investment in partnerships, infrastructure, and innovation across the company's worldwide transportation network,” Amazon said in a post announcing the milestone.

Please click here to read the complete article. 

According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.

And it explained that the TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions include: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. And a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.

For April, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading came in at 11.6, which was preceded by April’s -1.11, a steep fall-off from February’s 10.2, which marked the highest reading in four years, at the time.

The firm explained that fuel costs were a negative contributor to the TCI, albeit at a lower level than they were in March. And it added that all key market factors were viewed as more favorable for carriers in April than they were in March, with freight rates and capacity utilization being the top factors.

“While surging fuel costs in the past couple of months obviously created cash flow crunches for many operations, tight capacity and surging freight rates are more than offsetting that challenge, broadly speaking,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “For the overall market, the missing element needed to continue the acceleration in market conditions is freight volume, which is growing but not especially strongly. The demand picture varies quite substantially by sector, however. For example, flatbed operations are benefiting both from capacity constraints and strong freight volume, which appears to be tied to a combination of data center construction and a recent modest recovery in manufacturing activity.

We expect overall trucking conditions to peak this summer, but our TCI forecast remains solidly favorable for carriers over the two-year forecast horizon.”

The national price per gallon, for the week of June 8, fell 14.0 cents, to $5.210, following a 17.3-cent decline, to $5.350, for the week of June 1, which marked steepest weekly decline since the week of April 20, when the national average fell 20.5 cents, from $5.608 to $5.403, for the largest weekly decline in more than three years, according to EIA data.

Prior to that, the national average price per gallon, for the week of May 25, at $5.523 per gallon, fell 7.3 cents compared to the week of May 18, which came in at $5.596, and was off 4.3 cents compared to the week of May 11, at $5.639. which eked out a $0.001-cent sequential gain. That followed a 28.9-cent cent sequential gain, for the week of May 4, when it came in at $5.640, which represented the largest sequential increase since the week of March 16, when it increased $0.21.

For the week of April 27, the national average decreased 5.2 cents, to $5.351, and for the week of April 20, it fell 20.5 cents, to $5.403, marking the highest weekly decline, since the week of December 22, 2008, when it fell 24.5 cents, and a 3.5-decline decline to $5.608, for the week of April 13.

Prior to the week of May 4, the highest average price in any week since came during the week of May 9, 2022, when it was at $5.623 per gallon. Prices continue to remain elevated, due to the launched joint strikes by the United States and Israel, in an initiative geared towards halting Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.

On an annual basis, the national average, for the week of June 1, is up $1.739, below a $1.899 annual increase a week ago at this time. And the average price per barrel of WTI crude is trading at $88.13, down from $91.92 last week at this time.

While the average price per gallon fell again this week, it remains elevated, as has been the case going back to the beginning of the Iran conflict in late February.

As for ways in which shippers can hedge themselves against still-high diesel prices, an industry observer told LM there is not a lot they can do about the situation other than shift more volume to intermodal, which certainly does seem to be happening to a considerable degree.

“I suppose other steps are possible, such as trying to stage truckload shipments for maximum cube capacity to reduce the number of trips needed and, thus, the amount of fuel burned,” he said. “Of course, tight capacity’s impact on spot rates is as much or more of a reason to do that as fuel costs are.”

The national weekly diesel average is up $1.488 annually, coming in below the annual increase a week ago, at $1.739. WTI crude oil is currently trading at $76.95 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from $91.92 and $88.13, respectively, over the previous two weeks. 

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”

For April, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports covered in the report, handled 2.05 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), decreasing 5.1% sequentially and 7.3% annually, with this tally not including data from the Port of New York and New Jersey.

Port Tracker issued projections for May and the subsequent months, including:

• May, at 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7% annually (due to May 2025 seeing declines following the White House’s Liberation Day tariffs);
• June, at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3% annually, paced by low imports in June 2025;
• July, at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% annually;
• August, at 2.12 million TEU, down 8.6% annually; and
• September, at 2.06 million TEU, down 2.2% annually; and
• October, at 2.08 million TEU, up 0.1% annually

Should those numbers come to fruition, the first half of 2026 would come in at 12.6 million TEU, for a 0.6% annual gain, partially paced by May-June increases, the report said.

In addition to the expected June annual gain related to the Liberation Day timing comparisons, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett observed in the report that hut higher shipping costs and worries about additional tariffs imposed after those tariffs were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court are also a concern.

“We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs,” Hackett said. “The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.”

The monthly LMI is a joint project among researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University, and also receives support by Council of Supply Management Professionals (CSCMP). CSCMP. The LMI is written by Zac Rogers Ph.D., Steven Carnovale Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt Ph.D., Ron Lembke Ph.D., and Dale Rogers Ph.D.

The report’s authors explained that the LMI score, or reading, is based on eight “unique components” within the logistics sector, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization and prices and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices.

The May LMI reading, at 69.5 (a reading above 50 indicates growth is occurring), fell 0.4% compared to April’s 69.9, which topped March’s 65.7 by 4.2% and marked the fastest expansion rate going back to March 2022’s 76.2 reading. May represents the second-fastest rate of expansion for that period.

Key factors cited in the report for the slight decline included a 1.5% decline, to 54.8, for Inventory Levels, with most of that occurring over the second half of May, as inventories shifted from robust expansion to almost no movement. And Warehousing Capacity rose 5.0%, to 50.5, coming out of contraction. Not surprisingly, Prices continue to post gains, as evidenced by a 9.4% gain in Inventory Costs, to 84.1, its highest reading since May 2022, with Warehousing Prices, at 70.7, down 2.0%, and remaining above the threshold for what the report’s authors consider a significant rate of expansion.

“We have not seen transportation prices grow this quickly in the nearly 10-years of the LMI. Transportation prices are always the fastest moving component of the LMI, but we are seeing them change quickly,” wrote Dr. Dale Rogers in the report. “Because the Logistics Managers Index allows us to see the future a little bit as products rolls through the supply chain towards the consumer, we would have to guess that we will see a fair amount to inflation in GDP in two or three months. The LMI team has speculated for about a year that we would see the real impact of the tariffs sometime during Summer 2026, but accompanied by the Iran War the impacts of two inflationary events could be substantial. We hope this is just temporary, but we are starting to see some warning signs about the economy as we head for the back end of the year.

This is the hottest that the transportation market has been in over four years. It will be interesting to see whether or not that persists, or whether the disruptions that have acted as tailwinds to the freight market could eventually become headwinds. Both the University of Michigan and Conference Board consumer surveys showed a downward shift in spending habits, and a move away from durable goods as more money is spent on food and energy. If this trend continues it could have an impact on freight volumes."

What’s more, the report explained that logistics sector moves reflect and sometimes precede overall economic movements, noting that the economy remains in an interesting place, with supply chains continuing to adjust to disruptions created by the Iran conflict, tariffs, and inflation.

This free publication is issued monthly by the AAR and provides insights from AAR economists regarding what rail traffic is saying about the current state of the economy, as well as where things may be headed. It also features a Freight Rail Index (FRI), which AAR said “tracks movement across the most economically sensitive rail traffic commodities,” including U.S. carload commodities (excluding coal and grain) and intermodal containers and trailers.

AAR Chief Economist Rand Ghayad told LM that the RIO essentially provides a summary of the key findings from the roughly 45 reports AAR produces for various industry stakeholders, with some of those reports geared toward those in the freight rail industry, as well as policymakers and academics, with data and information coming from what he called a wide range of sources.

“Rail volume or rail traffic data in general is usually seen as a very important and solid indicator of what's happening in the economy,” he said. “So, if you want to know how the economy is going to be moving over the next couple of months, one way is actually to look at what's happening in the rail industry. The whole idea of RIO is to summarize the findings from everything we're putting out there and connect the dots with what's happening in the economy. If the industry is doing well, it means the economy is on the right track. If the industry is not doing well, it means there are some concerns about how the economy is proceeding. It's meant to be very easy to digest. It's not meant to be very technical. It's not meant to be only for rail folks. It's meant to be for everybody who's interested in knowing about the economy, and mostly about how rail drives the economy.”

The April FRI reached its highest level in 17 months, the report noted, adding that it serves as a reinforcement of broader signs of improving goods-sector momentum, with the “breadth of these gains,” being the key takeaway, as growth occurring across much of the rail network often signaling more durable improvements in underlying economic activity.

May U.S. carloads saw a 2.5% annual gain, rising for the fifth consecutive month, coming in at their highest level since 2019, with 15 of the 200 carload commodities it tracks seeing annual gains, with AAR noting that the gains highlight the widespread nature of recent freight strength.

Intermodal volumes headed up 8.1% annually, seeing gains for the fourth consecutive month, with volumes at a record-high, to date, suggesting what AAR called, “continued resilience in consumer-related freight demand and international trade flows.”

“Rail traffic strengthened again in May, extending a pattern that has become increasingly evident throughout 2026,” the report said. “More importantly, growth is becoming broader. Freight gains are no longer concentrated in a handful of commodity groups but are increasingly visible across much of the rail network.  That breadth may be the most important signal coming from freight markets today. When growth extends across agriculture, intermodal, chemicals, and other industrial sectors simultaneously, it often points to strengthening underlying economic activity rather than temporary gains in a single market.    No single month determines the economic outlook, and risks remain. However, recent rail data continue to suggest that the goods side of the economy is proving more resilient than many headline narratives imply.”

As for the economic outlook, AAR said that it remains subject to several uncertainties, including inflation trends, labor market conditions, trade policy developments, and geopolitical events. Which it said will all continue to shape business decisions, consumer spending patterns, and freight demand in the coming months.

“At the same time, the cumulative signal from rail markets remains constructive,” it said. “Freight growth has become increasingly broad-based, manufacturing activity continues to improve, agricultural demand remains strong, and intermodal traffic suggests consumer-related goods demand remains resilient.”