The company said that this facility will enable Pacific Northwest-, northern California-, and upper mountain-based states to be able to, “access cost-effective, chilled LTL transportation via strategic freight consolidation,” providing strategic solutions for customers shipping outbound from the West Coast, Midwest, and Northeast.

What’s more, the company said that with strategic freight consolidation, EchoChill meshes smaller, chilled shipments into one full load and also keep freight on the same trailer throughout transit. Which Echo said minimizes handling and eliminates extra stops, container switches, and lost time that helps to preserve product integrity. And it added that each EchoChill facility and trailer is designed to maintain consistent temperatures that ensure products maintain optimal condition and arrive free from spoilage.

Joe Amici, Director of Consolidation at Echo, provided LM with an overview of the EchoChill expansion in the Q&A below.

LM: What drove the need for Echo to expand its EchoChill offering?

Amici: The expansion of EchoChill was driven by increasing demand from shippers for more efficient, cost-effective solutions in the 33-to-37-degree temperature range. Traditional LTL options in this space can be costly and operationally complex, while building multi-stop truckloads internally is difficult to scale and manage.

We saw an opportunity to leverage our network, density, and technology to create a more optimized consolidation model. The addition of chilled capacity in Sacramento allows us to better serve key West Coast lanes, improve service consistency, and give clients more flexibility with short-term storage and shipment timing.

LM: What are the main benefits of this for customers in the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the Upper Mountain States?

Amici: Customers in these regions benefit from increased density and more direct routing, which translates into lower transportation costs and improved transit times. By consolidating freight through our Sacramento cooler, we can better align appointment scheduling to meet retail compliance requirements while reducing dwell time and handling. Additionally, customers gain flexibility with short-term storage, allowing them to better manage inventory flows and respond to demand variability without sacrificing cold chain integrity.

LM: Can you please provide a top-level example of how EchoChill works and is used?

Amici: A typical use case would involve multiple shippers with refrigerated freight moving into similar regions or to overlapping retail networks. Instead of each shipper running separate LTL shipments or building their own multi-stop truckloads, EchoChill leverages refrigerated consolidation to aggregate that freight into a single, optimized load. Freight is staged through our Sacramento chilled facility as needed, then consolidated into multi-stop truckloads with carefully aligned delivery appointments. Using our technology, we route these loads as directly as possible to final destinations, minimizing miles, touchpoints, and delays. The result is a more efficient, compliant, and cost-effective solution compared to traditional alternatives.

LM: What are the main competitive advantages of EchoChill from Echo’s perspective?

Amici: EchoChill combines network density, physical infrastructure, and advanced technology to deliver a differentiated solution. First, our ability to pool freight across a broad client base creates scale that most individual shippers cannot achieve on their own. Second, our Sacramento chilled facility enhances consolidation efficiency, enables short-term storage, and improves overall network flexibility. Third, our technology allows us to optimize routing, align appointments for compliance, and execute more direct moves—reducing both miles and cost. Finally, the combination of these elements allows us to consistently outperform traditional LTL and self-managed multi-stop solutions on both service and economics.

POLA reported that total volume—at 752,250 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—were off 3% annually, up against the same period a year ago, when shippers were front-loading cargo in order to get ahead of rising tariff levels. For the first quarter, total volume came in at 2,388,843 TEU, which is down 4.6% annually, but in line with the port’s first quarter average over the last five years.   

Imports, at 380,733 TEU, were down 1% annually, and exports, at 132,129 TEU, increased 7% annually, marking the highest monthly export tally going back to May 2024. Empty containers, at 239,658 TEU, were down 11% annually.

On a port-hosted media call this week, POLA Executive Director Gene Seroka said March volumes were very strong, coming off of the Lunar New Year in Asia, which led to 17 blank sailings. Seroka noted that while exports were strong, there is still much more work to do to develop a consistent upward trend. As for empty containers, he explained that the port will be keeping a close eye on future readings, as it is a bit lower, as the port expects to gear up for inbound seasonal products.

“It's worth noting numbers in the first three months of the year often fluctuate depending on where Lunar New Year falls on the calendar,” said Seroka. “That's why the first quarter as a whole tells a complete story. As we look ahead to April, retailers are beginning to replenish seasonal goods, including spring and summer fashion. Based on our Port Optimizer data, I'm projecting April will land in the 800,000 TEU range, a solid start to the second quarter. However, with uncertainty in the Middle East and trade policy still unsettled, we're staying ahead of it, keeping up with events and ready to respond to whatever comes our way.”

Addressing the impact of tariffs on volumes and trade conditions, Seroka said that things remain in what he called unchartered territory, following the February Supreme Court ruling against the legality of the implementation of the White House’s IEEPA tariffs, which are raising immediate and still unresolved questions about if, when, and how refunds may be processed.  

“There's a whole group of companies lining up to recoup those funds, be it through litigation, legislation, or any other available channel,” he said. “That's about $170 billion that many of us would like to see injected back into the U.S. economy. It's also worth noting that while the IEEPA tariffs were struck down, tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos remain, so industries are still navigating real cost pressures. Second, the administration responded to that Supreme Court ruling with a temporary 10% import charge under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. This has a 150-day limit. We're now on day [57] and so far, there's very little clarity on what happens when that clock runs out.

And lastly, retailers are wondering what comes next in terms of purchasing, because at the heart of all of this is the American consumer. We saw inflation jump almost a full percentage point in March, and consumer sentiment is reported at a record low. So now the question is, at what point do families start to reconsider how much they're willing to spend? All of this is a reminder that uncertainty continues across the global economy, which limits planning horizons to a bare minimum.”

POLB data: The Port of Long Beach reported that total March volume—at 774,935 TEU—fell 5.2% annually, as it was, like POLA, up against a high level in front-loading by shippers in March 2025. Total first quarter volume was off 5.7% annually compared to the record-setting 2025 first quarter, coming in at 2,390,225 TEU, which it noted was the highest first quarter volume in the U.S., despite being down 8.6% annually.

March imports, at 374,412 TEU, were off 1.6% annually, and exports, at 104,554 TEU, eked out a 0.5% annual gains. Empty containers, at 295,970, fell 11.1%.

“Global supply chain, pressures are indeed mounting due to the Mideast conflict, but March's figures locally were not affected,” said POLB CEO Dr. Noel Hacebaga on port’s media call this week. “These levels of cargo are due to the war and the disruption that it brings. This is still about policy and market timing. With the conflict in the Middle East unresolved, what does the future hold for our cargo lines and by extension, the finances of the typical American?

At POLB, Hacebaga said all terminals remain open, and there are no direct impacts to operations, while noting the war in the Middle East continues to add uncertainty for global supply chains.

“When ships are being rerouted to avoid conflict zones, it sets off a chain reaction,” he explained. “Cargo has to move differently. Routes get longer, costs go up, and ultimately, consumers feel it. We're about one week into the ceasefire. The tensions are still escalating. U.S. Navy ships are now blockading Iranian ports, and it's not clear how the ceasefire will play out in those conditions. The street of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil, and it's basically closed. The price of oil already hit $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, and it's still hovering this week at nearly $100. Here in Los Angeles County, we're seeing gas prices rise to $6 a gallon. History tells us prices go fast. They come down slowly. The U.S. Labor Department's new report found that inflation has hit a two-year high. That's why we're seeing growing concern from consumers. Prices rose 3.3% in March alone, led by surging energy prices, which are up by 12.5%. That connection is direct. Higher fuel costs lead to higher transportation costs, and those costs show up in everyday prices. For a while, shippers absorbed rising costs from fuel spikes to last year's Liberation Day tariffs. That's no longer the case.

Those costs are being passed along across the board. We're seeing new surcharges and higher rates. Major ocean carriers, including MSC, CMA CGM, Ocean Network Express, Maersk and others, are implementing fuel surcharges and higher rates across key trade lines. At the same time, shippers are adjusting how they move cargo to manage costs and avoid congestion.”

And he added that some goods that typically move from Asia to Europe are now being rerouted, traveling by vessel and then by air to Los Angeles, simply to control costs. To that end, he observed that those costs don't stay in the supply chain, with Amazon adding a 3.5% seller surcharge for fuel and logistics, the United States Postal Service planning to launch an 8% temporary increase, and UPS and FedEx have also announced respective fuel surcharges. On the trucking side, he noted fuel surcharges are up 25%.

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $37 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers. 

The March shipments reading, at 1.007, fell 4.5% annually, while rising 3.0% over February’s 0.978 reading. March shipments were down 9.5% on a two-year stacked change basis and were up 1.0% on a month-to-month seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis.

Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, wrote in the report that the 1.0% gain on a SA basis continues to increase the chances of a second half 2026 recovery, following a 4.3% gain in February, adding that, at March’s rate, the index would be up 1.5% annually over the second half of 2026.

“While this index is starting to catch up with other indicators, the significant less-than-truckload (LTL) mix likely explains why it’s behind,” noted Denoyer. “Tightness in dry van truckload (TL) conditions is starting to radiate to other markets, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well. The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down 5% y/y in April.”

The March expenditures reading, at 3.296, saw a 4.2% annual increase, rising 2.1% on a two-year stacked-change basis. It was up 4.9% over February and up 2.4% on a month-to-month SA basis, for the same period.

Denoyer attributed the March increases to the sequential improvement in shipments. And he added that expenditures surged by a record 38% in 2021 and another 23% in 2022, prior to falling by 19% and 11%, respectively, in 2023 and 2024, with 2025 down 0.5%.

The companies explained that the by leveraging AFS’s access to freight data across various modes, coupled with applying advanced analytics like machine learning algorithms, they have developed models that they said provide a complete picture of the data’s depth and richness. And they also highlighted how along with the large amount of historical data, they are evaluating and selecting current macro- and micro-economic factors, which are built into their historical models, which includes the most recent GRI (general rate increase) announcement from a major parcel carrier. What’s more, TD Cowen and AFS noted that the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index offers what they called a unique and comprehensive review of both past performance and the forecasted outlook for the immediate future quarter.

“While the term ‘new normal’ may conjure unpleasant memories of the COVID era, businesses should brace themselves for a new normal of elevated fuel costs,” says Andy Dyer, CEO, AFS Logistics. “Not only do the structural causes that spurred this spike take time to unwind, the related pricing changes, particularly in parcel, tend to be ‘sticky’ with effects that linger even after the underlying price of fuel recedes.” 

The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index issued the following takeaways across the modes it covers:

Truckload: Supply-side correction pushes rates to 13-quarter high amid stable demand. Mixed signals and uncertainty continue to characterize the macroeconomic picture, with the U.S. economy decelerating to 0.5% growth in Q4 2025 and renewed inflation concerns as escalating conflict in the Middle East caused oil prices to soar 50% in March, pushing inflation to 3.3%. The ATA truck tonnage index shows trucking activity building momentum, rising 0.7% in January and 2.6% in February—reaching its highest level in three years. However, the early signs of recovery are driven more by tightening capacity than a broad demand rebound. The cumulative effect of carriers leaving the market and strict regulatory enforcement continues to constrain capacity, driving a steady supply-side push to higher truckload pricing. Q1 2026 data shows the effect of continued upward pricing pressure, as the supply-side correction and winter storm disruptions pushed linehaul cost per shipment up 10.2% QoQ—a surge that cannot be explained by distance alone, as miles per shipment rose just 8.2%. Looking ahead to Q2 2026, the truckload rate per mile index is projected to reach 10.1% above the January 2018 baseline — the first quarter above 10% in over three years. 

Parcel: Opportunistic carriers take advantage of sky-high fuel prices. Fuel surcharges are a cornerstone of FedEx and UPS pricing strategy, and frequent adjustments to fuel surcharge tables positioned them to claim major incremental revenue as fuel prices spiked in March. In Q1 2026, the price of diesel fuel rose approximately 10% year-over-year (YoY), but ground fuel surcharges rose 26.7%. Across the broader parcel market, other carriers are following the example set by FedEx and UPS, with the U.S. Postal Service proposing a fuel surcharge for the first time in its history, Amazon introducing fuel-related fees and OnTrac updating its surcharge tables in the wake of spiking fuel prices. Express parcel cost per package came in higher than initially forecast, reaching 8.5% above the January 2018 baseline in Q1. That upward trend is expected to continue in Q2, with the express parcel index projected to reach a record high of 10.3% in Q2 2026—up 6.4% YoY. GRIs took full effect in Q1 and when U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel spiked 38% YoY in March, fuel surcharges shot up, too, coming in 46% higher than Q1 levels a year ago.  Elevated fuel surcharges and GRIs also proved a potent combination in ground parcel, with the rate per package index reaching 39.3% in Q1 2026. While peak-related demand surcharges fell away in mid-January, sustained diesel price increases and related fuel surcharges are expected to continue driving higher costs. The ground parcel index is projected to set a record high for the third straight quarter—reaching 42.0% in Q2 2026, representing a 1.9% QoQ and 6.6% YoY increase.

LTL: Record highs ahead as surging fuel costs join stabilizing demand. Q1 2026 reversed trends of declining weight and cost per shipment, with weight exhibiting the first quarterly gain in two years, up 3.8% QoQ. Carrier pricing discipline has held cost per shipment at elevated levels despite falling weights, and the reversal of that decline together with a sharp rise in fuel surcharges drove a 3.0% QoQ increase in cost per shipment. U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for a third consecutive month in March, with gains in new orders and production signaling early recovery in industrial activity and gradual support for freight demand. Looking ahead, the LTL rate per pound index is projected to reach a record high of 68.4%, up 3.2% YoY and the 10th consecutive quarterly YoY increase. 

Please click here to read the complete report. 

UPS said it is using RFID sensing technology in its package delivery vehicles in the U.S. and also in its U.S.-based delivery facilities and for every package shipped through the more than 5,000 national The UPS Store locations, which includes customer return shipments. The company said it is the first national logistics provider to broadly roll out RFID technology across its integrated network. What’s more, UPS noted that it has invested more than $100 million into developing and implementing RFID technology.

“We’re lighting up customers’ supply chains in real time with RFID, enabling precise tracking, faster insights, a smarter network and smarter packages,” said Matt Guffey, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer. “This is the most significant visibility advancement in the past decade at UPS and in our industry. With RFID embedded into labels, on our vehicles and in our loading bays, customers benefit from clear visibility during the entire shipping process—from pick up to delivery, with no manual scanning required. The result is commerce that is smarter and predictable.”

What’s more, UPS explained that scanning technology has been a standard in the logistics industry since the early 1990s, when UPS pioneered the practice by equipping drivers with handheld scanners. Today, the company said it is advancing from scanning to sensing—a natural next step in its commitment to technological innovation—enhancing service reliability and delivering a superior, premium experience for its customers.

As for what drove the need for UPS to introduce RFID packaging across its U.S. small package network, a UPS spokesman told LM that technology is in the company’s DNA.

“For 118 years, UPS has led the way in logistics technology—from automated conveyor systems to AI‑powered route optimization,” said spokesman. “We’re always looking ahead to what’s next to improve service for our customers. UPS has been at the forefront of RFID technology at scale for years—with more than 30 patents in RFID technology going back to 2003. For select high-value items and healthcare goods (think vaccines), this technology has already been in use for several years with our UPS Premier product. We're the first carrier to be able to do this at scale.”

When asked about the key value-adds, or benefits, in switching from scanning to sensing, for both UPS and its customers, the spokesman cited the following:  

• Unmatched shipment visibility and transparency: RFID moves UPS from scanning to sensing, giving customers near-real-time insight into where their packages are across the network;
• Pickup confirmation (chain of custody confidence): RFID pickup sensing confirms packages have been picked up and are in UPS’s possession; no other carrier can offer this assurance across its U.S. network;
• Greater reliability and confidence in delivery: Automatic sensing through vehicles and facilities reduces missed scans and errors—helping shipments arrive where and when customers expect them; and
• A future-ready logistics experience: RFID lays the foundation for smarter analytics, better predictability, and new value-added services

Looking ahead, the spokesman said that beginning later this year, UPS be equipping its hubs, for things like regional sortation building and the middle mile, in the U.S. with RFID sensors.

In fact, nearly 20 years ago, some leaders at the company believed it never would be.

“Supply chain is important but it will never be a competitive advantage of the Home Depot,” CFO Richard McPhail recalled during a keynote at MODEX. “Almost 20 years later, I can tell you the exact opposite is true. It fills me with pride when I talk to my investors about how our supply chain is absolutely a strategic weapon.”

That shift didn’t happen overnight. It came through years of investment and a complete rethink of how products move from suppliers to stores and ultimately to customers.

Back in the late 2000s, about 90% of products were shipped directly from vendors to stores, a model that was hard to scale and often inefficient.

The company started by building rapid-deployment centers across the country, giving it more control over how products move rather than relying so heavily on vendors to ship straight to stores. And it didn’t stop there.

Over time, Home Depot kept adding to that network. Today, it includes flatbed centers for big, bulky items, fulfillment centers that support its $20 billion e-commerce business, and delivery operations focused on getting items like appliances to customers faster.

Please click here to read the complete article. 

In its report, entitled “Applied Automation in the Warehouse Boosts Value Across Stakeholders,” the firm explained that with warehouse workers continuing to see operational constraints rising, ranging from labor shortages to service level imperatives, “automation adoption is not only accelerating but also reinforcing structural demand for well-located warehouse space capable of incorporating emerging technologies.”

A key takeaway of the report focused on how automation adoption is increasing, with around 30% of modern logistics space now using automation, up from 20%-to-25% five years ago. Prologis explained that this is exemplified through users leveraging autonomous mobile robots and automated guided vehicles that optimize existing warehouse space.

Melinda McLaughlin, senior vice president, global head of research at Prologis, told LM that adoption is being driven by structural pressures—labor shortages, supply chain complexity and the need for faster throughput.

“Automation is expanding real estate demand as companies grow their networks to support higher service levels and revenue,” said McLaughlin. “This is a durable shift. Automation is still early, with penetration expected to reach up to 50% by 2035, and accelerating thanks to modular systems that offer faster ROI and can be deployed in existing buildings.”

Regarding modular systems, the report explained that modular systems require around one-third of the capital of fully automated solutions while delivering around 1.5x more throughput per dollar invested. To that end, the report noted that modular systems unlock expansion in infill locations in various ways, including: solving greater labor challenges; enabling higher service levels; and deploying automation in smaller places offering a compelling value proposition.

“Modular systems are more cost-efficient because they are less expensive, can be deployed in existing buildings with minimal retrofitting, and have positive terminal value, speeding up the ROI payback period,” said McLaughlin. “They also deliver stronger returns by targeting specific, high-impact operational bottlenecks—like picking and sorting—driving roughly 1.5x more throughput per dollar invested. Modular systems help preserve flexibility. Companies can scale up or down as needs change, without being locked into fixed infrastructure. That combination of lower risk and faster payback is what’s accelerating adoption.”

In terms of how automation is creating value for users and owners, the report noted that facilities with automation see higher retention, longer lease durations and higher rental rates compared to those facilities without automation. It added that with higher penetration and growth among flexible automation solutions, adoption has a minimal impact on property obsolescence.

When asked how automation is creating real estate value and becoming a competitive differentiator, McLaughlin said that automation is creating value on two fronts—operations and real estate—with the two reinforcing each other.

“It improves speed, accuracy and throughput, helping companies boost service levels and gain market share,” she said. “That performance translates directly into real estate value. Automated facilities see higher retention, longer leases and rental premiums of around 10% compared to non-automated buildings. It’s also reshaping location strategy, enabling companies to operate more efficiently in high-demand, labor-constrained markets. Taken together, automation is a competitive differentiator that’s driving supply chain performance and real estate value.”

Looking ahead, the report said that automation is reinforcing, and not reducing, structural demand for modern logistics real estate. The reason for that, it said, is that with penetration at around 30% of U.S. facilities and investment per square foot rising, the “runway” for further automation adoption is long.

“As the economic cycle becomes more supportive, broader deployment should coincide with higher utilization and greater throughput intensity across the network, driving automation adoption and concentrating value creation and competitive advantage within the supply chain,” said Prologis.

Then, show producer MHI dropped the big news: the creation of a new exhibition in Las Vegas—MODEX West. The new trade show will debut October 18-20, 2028, at the Las Vegas Convention Center. This location was chosen to facilitate the continued growth of MHI’s trade show portfolio and to expand the reach to supply chain professionals.

Modex West will not replace Modex. MODEX 2028 will be held April 3-6 in Atlanta’s Georgia World Congress Center. Information on both 2028 events will be launched on modexshow.com in the coming months.

Please click here to read the complete artice. 

As oil and gas prices continue to see significant increases, going back to the launched joint strikes by the United States and Israel more than five weeks ago, in an initiative geared towards halting Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, for the week of April 13, the national average price per gallon of diesel came in at $5.608. This represents a $2.029 annual increase and a 3.4-cent decline compared to the week of April 6. The all-time high, for the national weekly diesel average, at $5.783 per gallon, was during the week of June 27, 2022, according to EIA data.

Prior to the last two weeks, the national average, for the week of March 30, came in at $5.401, with the week of March 23 at 5.375. The average price per gallon, for the week of March 16, was $5.071, topping the week ending March 9, at $4.859. What’s more, prior to the last five weeks, the last time the national diesel average topped the $5 per gallon mark was the week of November 28, 2022, when it was at $5.141 per gallon.

Before that, the national average, for the week of March 2, was up 8.8 cents, to $3.897, following a 9.8-cent gain, to $3.809, for the week of February 23—which marked the previously highest weekly gain since a 9.4-cent increase, to $3.50, for the week of January 26, prior to this week. This was preceded by a 2.3-cent gain, to $3.711, for the week of February 16, and 0.007-cent increase, to $3.688, for the week of February 9.

WTI crude is currently trading at $94.06 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from $115.96 a week ago at this time and down from a high of $119.98 on March 9.

This the 56th edition of the Global Shipping Report, going back to its debut in August 2021.  

March U.S.-bound container imports—at 2,353,611 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—increased 12.4% sequentially and off 1.1% annually, for its fourth-highest monthly tally on record. In its previous report, Descartes said that February imports fell 9.7% from January and were down 6.5% annually.

The report explained that March’s rebound suggests that typical seasonal patterns are intact, following February’s decline, with volumes reflecting steady demand despite ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainty. And it added that volumes are still “significantly elevated” in relation to pre-pandemic volumes, up 32.3% over March 2019, with year-to-date imports through March off 4.8% annually.

“While March import volumes remain near historically high levels and port operations continue to perform efficiently, escalating tensions in the Middle East, evolving U.S. tariff policy and shifting global trade dynamics are increasing volatility around routing, costs and sourcing decisions,” said Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy at Descartes. “To minimize global shipping challenges, importers are responding by diversifying sourcing beyond traditional trade lanes, recalibrating routing strategies in response to geopolitical risk, and leveraging data and technology to make faster, more informed decisions in an increasingly complex trade environment.”

U.S.-bound imports originating from China—at 711,652 TEU—fell 2.3% from January and were down 1.1% annually, while also coming in 30.4% below the peak in July 2024, at 1,022,913 TEU, with China’s share of total U.S. imports, at 30.2%, down 4.6% from February. The report observed that March’s decline may reflect residual impacts from the timing of the 2026 Lunar New Year, from February 17 through March 3, as typical 30-day-to-50-day transit times can shift production slowdowns into March arrival volumes.

U.S.-bound imports, for the top 10 countries of origin, were up 8.2% sequentially in March, or a cumulative 122,671 TEU, paced by Italy’s 74.5%, or 25,565 TEU, increase, and Thailand’s 25.6%, or 24,682 TEU, gain.

Other key findings in the report included:

• Container volumes at the top 10 U.S. ports were up 11.0%, or 193,294 TEU, from February to March, with New York/Newark up 37.3%, or 100,875 TEU and Norfolk up 35.4%, or 38,091 TEU; and
• East and Gulf Coast ports market share accounted for 44.3% of total imports, up from 35.3% in February and West Coast ports’ share fell to 39.5%, from 44.2% in February, and the top 10 ports handling 82.6% of total U.S. containerized imports, down from February’s 83.6%

According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.

And it explained that the TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions include: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. And a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.

For February, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI came in at 10.2, topping January’s 9.3 reading, with both January and February coming in well above readings in previous months, including: December’s 4.85; November’s 2.14; October’s 0.89, and September’s 0.42 readings.

What’s more, February’s reading represents the highest one on four years, with FTR attributing it to a further strengthening in freight rates, while adding that the record surge in diesel prices in March being what it called a “huge short-term hit for carriers,” and could bring about a negative TCI reading. But it added that comes with the caveat that the firm’s preliminary assessment is still pointing to a marginally positive reading, paced by strong freight rates and capacity utilization and is expected to be an outlier.

“Extreme volatility in fuel prices—especially with the just-announced ceasefire in the Middle East—and uncertainty over how the spot market will respond to falling diesel prices make the near-term truck freight market far more difficult to forecast than the longer-term outlook, which remains solidly favorable for carriers,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “The freight market’s response this year to weather and diesel prices confirms how much capacity has tightened. As we explored in our latest update for clients, the real question is whether freight volume will support an acceleration of freight rates or whether carriers will merely hold recent gains.”

When the merger was first announced in July 2025, the railroads the rail carriers said it would create the nation’s first transcontinental railroad—which will connect more than 50,000 route miles across 43 states from the East Coast to the West Coast and connect around 100 ports as well.

As previously reported by LM, in its January decision, the STB said that the application is incomplete because it “does not contain certain information required by the Board’s regulations, and is “based solely on the incompleteness of the December 19 application and should not read as an indication of how the Board might ultimately assess any future revised application.”

STB explained that, as per its regulations regarding information that must be in a merger application, it requires: full system impact analyses that include market share projections for the entity to be created by the transaction; and the entire merger agreement, including the submission of any contract or other written instrument that pertains to the transaction, with applicants required to submit “full system” impact analyses that include actual and projected market shares of certain revenues and traffic volumes demonstrating, among other things, the impacts of the transaction on competition.

Todd Rynaski, UP senior vice president-Strategy, explained at NEARS that this merger will provide various benefits for rail shippers, specifically focusing on the value of single-line service compared to interline, in that it results in more reliable service, 24-to-30 hours faster transit times, better pricing for a single move, 10,000 existing lanes going to single-line service (which customers benefit from for improved asset utilization (with smaller railcar fleets required), an easier onboarding and service experience, and enhancing competition. He added that a combined UP-NS network can convert 2 million truckloads to rail, with a focus on key growth areas, including long-haul intermodal, from Los Angeles to the Northeast, so-called “Watershed” mid-distance markets, coupled with single-line service reducing handling risk and transit variability.

“It is about making the customer experience as easy as possible, so you have one person to call, one contract, and one bill,” said Rynaski. “We are putting our money where our mouth is, with a $2.1 billion of capital expenditures to do the integration, with $1 million in infrastructure, $500 million in capacity upgrades, $500 million in facilities, and around $1.1 billion in IT integration. Ultimately, we believe a very strong case of this transaction is enhanced competition for all. As we get closer to April 30, the pace is going to increase a little bit [regarding the application], just to make sure we are ticking on the boxes and don’t stub our toe on anything.”

In citing various benefits of the merger, Rynaski noted that single-line pricing is historically lower than interline, with market competition remaining intact, adding that fewer trains moving the same volume results in various improvements, including improvements in car velocity, terminal dwell, network fluidity, and also increased productivity through process improvements, real-time data, and sharing of best practices between UP and NS.

From the perspective of NS, Mike McClellan, NS Senior Vice President & Chief Strategy Officer, explained at NEARS that the revised merger application is addressing the main things requested by the STB, which include: forward-looking data showing how the merged railroad would affect competition, in the form of multi-year market projections and analysis of how competition will change on specific routes and markets (related to the STB’s requirement of mergers enhancing competition and not simply preserving competition); a full disclosure of underlying data, methodologies, and affected shippers and routes; and also the refiling of a complete and standalone application, with all required materials and documents, instead of referring to previous filings and omitted exhibits.

McClellan explained that the revised application, which will be submitted to the STB later this month is much stronger than the previous one, especially in terms of the various datasets required by the STB, which focus on service performance metrics, including train speed, terminal dwell time, and car orders.

Looking at the value-add of intermodal in this merger, at a time when fuel prices are very high, McClellan said that one of the most compelling things it can do to reduce costs across North America is to create more competitive railroad products, which he called the foundation of this transaction.

“Let’s say 20% of moves today are intermodal and 80% is trucking, for the shipper, and by putting together new lanes and faster services, maybe that 20% can get up to 30% or 40%, that in and of itself is fast,” he said. “To the extent that we can put more products out there that are lower-cost than truck, everybody is going to benefit. Around two-thirds of the [merger’s] value proposition is growth, and we are going to launch new services and new lanes as fast as we can. That is really one of the first major benefits of this. We want to go forward with a pro-competitive and pro-shipper action plan. What you are going to see right off the bat is us doing things in the first year that are really going to try to give the shippers opportunities to use more of us.”

As previously reported by LM, in December 2024, the company’s Board of Directors, following a review of the role FedEx Freight, in its portfolio, elected to make a push to fully separate the unit into a new publicly-traded company. FedEx officials said at the time that this separation is expected to be completed within the next 18 months [from December 2024] and achieved in what the company called a tax-efficient manner for FedEx stockholders. Upon completion of the separation, FedEx Freight will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol FDXF.

The development did not come as a surprise, considering that in its fiscal fourth quarter earnings announcement in June 2024, FedEx said it was “conducting an assessment of the role of FedEx Freight in the company’s portfolio structure and potential steps to further unlock sustainable shareholder value.”

FedEx Freight was created in in 2001, when FedEx Corp. acquired and merged the assets of American Freightways, Viking Freight and Watkins Motor Lines. It has since become the largest carrier in the LTL space. In 2024, it posted $9.1 billion in revenue to lead the market, according to figures compiled by SJ Consulting.

At its investor day last week, John Smith, FedEx Freight CEO, stressed how FedEx Freight is positioned to grow profitably as the leader in the North American LTL sector.

“We've always delivered for shareholders through FedEx, but now as an independent company, we are charting our own path, executing on our freight focused strategy to convert our strengths into high quality growth, enhanced profitability and expanded free cash flow,” said Smith. “We believe the spin will enable us to create significant value for our shareholders. Everything we do operationally and commercially supports these outcomes.”

Looking back at FedEx Freight’s origins, Smith observed that through its various acquisitions, it has established key national and regional lanes—including Viking Freight’s Western U.S. foothold, American Freightways’ regional network across the U.S., and Watkins Motor Lines’ long-haul network—which led to the 2011 creation on FedEx Freight’s Priority and Economic services running through a single network, with Priority serving 90% of the LTL market in three days or less from any of its locations and is 40% faster than its competitors, and Economy giving customers a more cost-effective, coupled with the same service levels as Priority. Smith noted that since then FedEx Freight has continued to invest into and expand its network, as well as rationalize it, to ensure it is in the right places where the freight is located.

“The footprint gives us the best locations, the best door capacity and the best transit times,” said Smith. “What you see today is the result of years of investment in scale, service and operational discipline. The foundation is a major reason we believe that FedEx Freight is positioned to continue to lead the industry. Going forward, building on this foundation, this year, we expect to generate $8.7 billion in revenue and approximately $1.1 billion in adjusted operating income, which translates into an operating margin of around 12%. These metrics demonstrate the high quality, profitable nature of our business. We operate from a position of strength. FedEx Freight is an established leader in the attractive LTL industry, firmly positioned to win today and into the future. We connect supply chains across North America transporting goods for companies of all sizes, industries and specialties, for manufacturers, distributors, industrials, retailers, e-commerce and beyond, our customers rely on us to move their goods quickly, efficiently and with superior service. The LTL industry has high barriers to entry to do what we do.”

In advance of the June 1 spin-off, Smith said some core focus areas for FedEx Freight include: optimizing its network, delivering a leading commercial offering, and advancing its technology capabilities, as well as delivering sustainable revenue growth driven by yield management and higher quality mix.

Addressing operations, FedEx Freight Chief Operating Officer Clint McCoy said that as FedEx freight integrated companies over the years, it ensured that it maintained the scale of their respective networks, while also evaluating service center concentration from its footprint. To that end, since 2003, McCoy said that FedEx Freight has consolidated 39 service centers, removing 1,000 doors, while adding nine new locations and 600 doors in strategic locations to expand its capabilities in the densest freight markets.

“The result is a network that is positioned where the freight is with unrivaled scale and proximity,” he said. “In a business where scale and proximity matter, we are positioned to absorb incremental volume with minimal additional capital investment, creating meaningful operating leverage through cycles. When you overlay where freight volumes are concentrated across North America, the strategic value of our network becomes clear. Our facilities and door capacity are located where the volumes are concentrated, allowing us to flex capacity efficiently maintain consistent service performance and capture profitable share as demand grows.”

On the sales side, McCoy said FedEx Freight has made strategic investments in building a dedicated LTL sales force, having hit its hiring target of 500 experienced LTL sales representative. As for pricing, he noted that FedEx Freight is committed to maintaining a rational pricing strategy, with a focus on generating high-quality revenue growth with an emphasis on yield. And he added that the company’s contracts are now structured more simply and cleanly, whereas, in the past, he described them as complicated.   

Addressing customer mix, McCoy said FedEx Freight is focused on a few key segments, including: small- and medium-sized businesses (SMB), citing the need for services consistency timeliness, and digital consistency; healthcare, which has a total addressable market at around $6 billion, with reliability and time-definitive solutions being mission-critical; the $1 billion grocery market, with the company’s temperature-controlled and liftgate capabilities able to flex to serve customers seamlessly within its existing network, with an expanded market presence driving increased weight per shipment; the data centers and energy viewed as a $2 billion market, demanding flexibility, urgency, and security.  

FedEx Freight’s pending spin-off comes at a time when many industry stakeholders maintain that LTL pricing, in some cases, has become irrational, according to Mike Regan, Chief Relationship Officer, at TranzAct Technologies.

“When you subtract out FedEx Freight and have it operating on a standalone basis, how does that impact its network, when it is no longer tied to Ground, in terms of plusses and minuses?” said Regan. “But in terms of where FedEx Freight wants to go, other LTL carriers are not as receptive. An LTL carrier CEO explained to me that if his company has trucks running at 27,000-to-28,000 pounds leaving a terminal, it is a good thing, with 22,000-to-23,000 pounds OK, because you are not losing money. But if trucks are running at 17,000-to-19,000 pounds, that is not a good picture.”

Regan observed that if a shipper is running in lanes where LTL carriers need freight, then the pricing will be very good, but if it is in freight lanes that are already well-established—and demand exceeds the supply—the pricing will not be as good.

Looking at the spin-off from a market perspective, Scooter Sayers, principal of Sayers Logistics, said that FedEx Freight is expecting generate business, based on its sales force investments, while also telegraphing to the market that it is going to be really zeroed in on revenue quality.

“What they're saying is, “We got a bunch of sales people. We want them to go get business,’ but they're going after the right business they think is going to be highly profitable to them. And if I'm a competitor. I'm saying, “You're not going to take my profitable business away from me.’ So, I think there is going to be some concern there, but not so much of a price war, but a customer war. How can I steal your customer without offering them a cheaper price? And that hurts you and helps me, because now I have better margin.”

This year, Modex showcases supply chains from every angle. The show features more than 1,100 exhibits, 200 educational sessions and four keynotes. Its unique combination of hands-on product and technology demonstrations, education and face-to-face connections makes Modex the can’t-miss experience for supply chain professionals this year.

“The excitement continues to build for this show,” said John Paxton, CEO at MHI. “Modex was completely sold out by January, and all three halls in Atlanta are full. What attendees will see is wall-to-wall solutions.”

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FTR reported that preliminary March Class 8 truck net orders, at 38,200 units, posted a 137% annual gain while falling 19% sequentially. The former gain marks the fourth straight month of orders topping 20% annual growth and also the second straight month of orders coming in over 135% annually. It added that total Class 8 orders over the last 12 months are at 280,457 units.

The firm explained that while March orders moderated from February’s surge, activity still suggests a market on a very solid footing and supported by improving freight fundamentals. It explained that the sequential decline largely reflects typical volatility and seasonality following outsized demand in the prior month. Orders exceeded expectations in March and remain significantly elevated—up 69% annually cumulatively since the demand inflection in December and up 96% year to date in 2026, according to FTR.

What’s more, as in recent months, FTR noted that a portion of order activity likely reflects deferred replacement demand reentering the market. But the sustained strength in orders increasingly suggests that momentum is being driven by improving freight volumes, higher asset utilization, and firmer rate expectations. Tightening capacity conditions are further reinforcing rate strength and supporting fleet confidence. The firm also said that increased clarity around tariff-adjusted pricing and concerning EPA 2027 NOx regulations are reducing uncertainty and encouraging more structured fleet capital planning.

“The 2026 order season from September 2025 through March 2026 is now up 15% annually, representing a clear inflection from the double-digit declines seen earlier in the cycle and reinforcing the view that the industry has entered the early stages of recovery,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, at FTR. “While monthly variability is likely to persist, improving cumulative order trends and a strengthening freight backdrop suggest demand is becoming more durable and less reliant on short-term catch-up dynamics. At the same time, disciplined OEM production continues to support backlog growth without leading to excess inventory.

Risks remain, including the trajectory of the freight recovery, elevated financing costs, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical factors affecting fuel prices. In addition, several new risks are introduced by the surge in orders itself. First, there is potential for a FOMO effect in which fleets rush to place Class 8 orders to secure build slots, thus introducing some excess into backlogs and raising the risk of higher cancellation rates later in the year, especially if the freight recovery slows or falters. Second, if current order strength proves fundamentally driven, it raises the question of whether the industry can successfully ramp production to these elevated levels given potential supply chain and labor constraints.”

ACT data: ACT reported that preliminary March North America Class 8 net orders, at 37,200 units headed up 126% annually.  

“After one of the best Class 8 order numbers in history in February, it is little surprise March preliminary data retreated, but only slightly, to a still very strong 37,200 units,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Though, as we exit ‘order season’ (September to March), and in recognition of significant backlog building since December, order strength is likely to move off current levels on typical seasonality. The Iran war poses major risks to the economic outlook, but tight for-hire capacity and a return of the driver shortage have helped insulate spot rates from the negative impacts of rising diesel prices.”

U.S. diesel prices—the fuel used for most freight and delivery trucks — is going for an average of $5.64 a gallon nationally in April. That’s up from about $3.76 a gallon before the war began, per AAA. In California, diesel costs more than $7 a gallon.

That means more expensive fuel bills for truckers, tractors and those who move the U.S. economy with diesel fuel. It means consumers are going to spend more on virtually everything, causing a likely rise in U.S. inflation.

This most recent fuel spike is hitting motor fleets (and their shippers) in at least four ways:

• Rising diesel prices are increasing per-mile operating costs and putting immediate pressure on fleet margins.
•  Price volatility is making it nearly impossible for shippers and carriers to plan, budget and manage fuel surcharges effectively.
•  Higher diesel costs are driving renewed interest in alternative fuels like Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) and electric solutions for fleets.
• Because total cost of ownership calculations are shifting, some alternative technologies are more economically viable than before.

For most fleets, fuel remains the second-largest operating cost after labor. Fuel typically represents 20-to-30% of a fleet’s total operating expenses.

Even the U.S. Postal Service is taking an 8% fuel surcharge, effective April 26. It affects commercial domestic competitive products including Priority Mail Express, Priority Mail, USPS Ground Advantage and Parcel Select.

When prices rise quickly (as they did once the U.S. and Israel launched the latest Gulf war on March 1), the effect is immediately felt at the pump. For carriers, that means higher per-mile costs, tighter margins and increased reliance on fuel surcharges that may lag behind real-time market conditions.

For the week of April 5, less-than-truckload (LTL) market leader Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) posted the following fuel surcharges: For LTL shipments, ODFL’s fuel surcharge on its LTL freight was listed as 44.32% of the freight bill. That compared with 26.82% average one year ago. For its full container movements, that surcharge on its 705 tariff rose to 67.9%. That compared with 49.3% average one year ago.

Some small to medium-sized shippers have complained in the past about the fairness of fuel surcharge revenue. They say it rises too quickly when fuel prices go up; and consequently, they are too slow to reduce when fuel goes lower.

“It is a valid criticism,” Satish Jindel, principal of SJ Consulting, which closely tracks fuel surcharges in the LTL industry, told LM.

The fuel surcharge mechanism began when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) came into existence in the late 1970s. Over these past 40-50 years, shippers have complained it’s a way of getting a rate increase.

“It is not a purely fuel surcharge as it was designed,” Jindel said. As a result, some large shippers have developed their own fuel surcharges. Smaller shippers don’t have that option.

“The concept is the best -- the way it’s being applied has changed. It has become a way for carriers to make extra money. It’s another thing to be negotiated,” Jindel said.

Some large shippers have developed their own fuel surcharge methodologies. It is a complex task. Not every shipper has that leverage with carriers, Jindel said. “Developing your own fuel surcharge table is no easy task,” he said.

In the near term, fleets are responding with familiar tactics: optimizing routes, reducing idle time, tightening driver behavior controls and revisiting fuel purchasing strategies.

But as diesel prices climb, those incremental efficiency gains become more apparent, particularly for high-mileage operations such as long-haul trucking, where fuel consumption is clocked in around 9 miles per gallon on some long-haul runs.

And it’s not just truckers raising rates because of fuel. Union Pacific Railroad (UP) adjusted rates for rail-owned containers used by intermodal marketing companies. It’s the second such move in five weeks amid a widening gap between the truckload spot market and domestic intermodal rates. 

The hedge against fuel price volatility could come with development as motor carriers look more seriously to evaluate advanced fuels and powertrain technologies as a hedge against fuel price volatility.

But those days are far away and of little help to shippers whose freight is caught essentially in a hostage situation to the worldwide price of crude oil. Fleets caught in the current rise in diesel prices are experiencing more than a short-term operational challenge. It is also a strategic signal.

If the war drags on, it’s possible that those prices could tick up even higher. To President Donald Trump's frustration, most tanker movement in the key Strait of Hormuz—where roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil once sailed through—has ground to a halt.   

In a search for some relief, the International Energy Agency pledged to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles of member nations. That is essentially a drop in the bucket for Americans, who consume an average of about 20.25 million barrels of petroleum per day, or a total of about 7.39 billion barrels of petroleum year.  

The Trump administration has also eased sanctions to free up some oil from Venezuela. The White House also says it’s waiving maritime shipping requirements under a more than century-old law, known as the Jones Act, for 60 days so that non-U.S.-flagged ships could haul crude oil in domestic-only movements.

A purchase price was not provided for this all-cash transaction.

Also based in Chicago, LunaPath serves as an execution layer for modern supply chains, noted project44. The company has more than 50 purpose-built agents and preconfigured playbooks embedded across phone, e-mail, and operational workflows, the company added. It focuses on resolving daily breakdowns, which consume operator time and erode margin, with its agents focused on various action items, including missed pickups, appointment schedules, and document gaps.

Company officials said this represents project44’s second strategic AI acquisition, in addition to 2021’s acquisition of ClearMetal.

Jett McCandless, project44 Founder and CEO, told LM that there were various factors that led to project44 acquiring Luna.ai, while noting that project44 evaluated eight AI agent providers over a 16-month period, in live supply chain operations.

“LunaPath consistently stood out in high-volume voice and messaging execution workflows,” said McCandless. “The results spoke for themselves. We've spent more than a decade building the world's largest, most accurate, real-time logistics data graph. Our initial AI acquisition of ClearMetal in 2021 gave us predictive intelligence on top of that. But knowing what's happening and actually doing something about it are two different problems. Our customers still had humans closing the gap between insight and action. LunaPath lets us close that gap automatically, at global scale, while removing friction from the process entirely. This was the logical next step in our AI Agent Orchestration strategy: evolving the platform from intelligence to autonomous execution. No one else in this industry is doing that.”

When asked about the main benefits of this acquisition for project44 customers, McCandless cited better cash flow, greater efficiency, and lower costs as being the results of what faster decisions, fewer disruptions, and autonomous operations deliver for shippers.

Expanding on that, he noted that the biggest drain isn't the big exceptions, instead, it is what he called the constant volume of small ones: missed check calls, delayed confirmations, documents that aren't where they need to be, and carriers that need chasing.

“LunaPath's agents handle that work automatically, grounded in live shipment data and historical performance patterns from the world's largest, most accurate, real-time logistics data graph,” said McCandless. “Firefighting stops and our customers start focusing on what actually requires human judgment. And because project44 takes a multi-vendor AI Agent Orchestration approach, shippers aren't locked into a single AI provider. Purpose-built agents handle specific workflows while everything stays unified under one governance and analytics layer. That means full visibility into what the agents are doing, why they're doing it, and how it's performing, without adding complexity to your operations. Lower cost per load, faster resolution cycles, and measurable margin improvement, at the scale global shippers actually operate at.”

As for what LunaPath brings to project44 that was needed, or missing, McCandless said that most AI in supply chains operate blind and does not know what's happening in the shipment, doesn't understand the context, and pushes recommendations that someone still has to act on manually.

“LunaPath's agents operate inside the world's largest, most accurate, real-time logistics data graph,” he said. “They understand what's happening, why it matters, and what to do about it before they act. These agents handle the work that consumes logistics teams every day: carrier check calls, proof-of-delivery retrieval, appointment confirmations, claims initiation, and exception resolution. They don't surface a recommendation and wait. They execute. At the orchestration level, LunaPath gives us the ability to unify specialized vendor agents into one coordinated system under centralized governance. Purpose-built agents for specific workflows, all operating together rather than in silos.”

In this roundtable webinar, industry experts will break down the latest advances in mobile robotics, automated picking, and orchestration platforms—and how they’re reshaping productivity and labor workflows.

Panelists will explore practical implementation strategies, real-world ROI, and how scalable automation can adapt to both greenfield and brownfield operations.

Attendees will walk away with a clear view of where warehouse automation is headed and how to build a roadmap that supports flexibility and growth.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the U.S. supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets. Retailers are monitoring the situation on a daily basis and working with their transportation partners to minimize any impact. In the meantime, retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty that put downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices.”

As previously reported by LM, in February, the United States Supreme Court ruled against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, President Trump announced a temporary 150-day 10% tariff, using Section 11 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the possibility of raising it to 15%. The administration is also considering launching new trade investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. That was followed by the White House recently adjusting Section 232 tariffs imposed last year on imported steel, aluminum, and copper, as well as announcing new Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceutical products and ingredients.

For February, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports surveyed in the report (minus the Port of New York/New Jersey), came in at 1.95 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), for a 7.5% sequential decrease and a 4.2% annual decrease, with the report observing that February is traditionally the slowest month of the year, due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Port Tracker issued projections for March and the subsequent months, including:

• March, at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% annually;
• April, at 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6% annually;
• May, at 2.09 million TEU, 7.3%, which would mark the first annual gain since August 2025);
• June, at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.9% annually;
• July, at 2.2 million TEU, down 8% annually; and
• August, at 2.18 million TEU, down 6% annually

Should these projections come to fruition, the report said volumes for the first half of 2026 would be down 1.8% annually, to 12.3 million TEU, with the report noting that the projected May and June gains are attributed to the drop-off in imports for those months a year ago, following the April 2025 rollout of the White House's "Liberation Day" tariffs. 

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that volume at U.S. container imports has been slowed by tariffs but is not being significantly affected by the situation in Iran because little U.S. container cargo comes from the region. And he added that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up the price of fuel for container ships worldwide at the same time consumers are paying more for gasoline. What’s more, he said ports in Asia depend on fuel from the Persian Gulf and could see shortages if the conflict is not resolved soon, adding it is too soon to assess the impact of the two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday.

“The United States is less impacted operationally as there is no shortage of fuel at U.S. ports, but the price of fuel here is based on international pricing,” Hackett said. “Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users.”

Rail carloads, at 2.68 million, saw a 4.2%, or 107,000, annual increase, with average weekly carloads coming in at 223,676, marking the highest weekly average, for the first quarter, going back to 2019—with total carloads up annually in January, February, and March.

“A first quarter pickup in U.S. rail traffic is a good sign for the economy, suggesting improving conditions across a broad swath of the freight-intensive economy,” said AAR in the report. “That said, rail volume momentum faces challenges from uneven performance across industrial sectors, energy price swings, and a cooling labor market. The outlook is broadly positive but not assured.”

AAR reported that 13 of the 20 carload commodity categories it tracks saw annual first quarter gains, including: grain (up 17.8%, or 44,499 carloads); coal (up 3.3%, or 22,226 carloads; and chemicals (up 3.8%, or 14,937 carloads). Commodities seeing declines included: primary metal products (down 5.5%, or 5,434 carloads); pulp & paper products (down 5.7%, or 2,971 carloads); and primary forest products (down 5.7%, or 2,971 carloads).

When excluding coal, AAR reported that first quarter rail carloads increased 4.5% annually, at 1.98 million, its highest tally going back to 2015, with the weekly carload average, at 171,338, its highest for any month since August 2019 and the highest for March since 2008, with AAR noting that this recent growth indicating that, despite softness in some sectors, the freight-sensitive portion of the economy remains resilient.

Intermodal still solid: Total U.S first quarter intermodal volume, at 3.31 million containers and trailers, was down 0.2%, or 6,597 units, annually. Despite the annual decline, this tally marks the second-highest volume for the first quarter, with January down 3.5% annually, February up 1.5% annually, and March up 1.4% annually.

The first intermodal average, for March, at 280,076, is the second-highest, trailing only March 2021.

“Recent intermodal performance underscores the sector’s resilience, with volumes near record highs despite modest year-to-date softness,” said AAR. “The recent return to year-over-year growth suggests intermodal may have moved past its soft patch in the second half of 2025 and into early this year. Even if overall freight demand remains uneven, intermodal remains well positioned to benefit if consumer demand remains steady and retailers avoid aggressive inventory drawdowns. Sustained gains will depend on economic conditions and on how uncertainties in global trade are resolved — there is an extremely close relationship between U.S. intermodal volume and container imports and exports via America’s ports — but the rebound in February and March is an encouraging sign that intermodal’s floor has risen.”

Whatever the annual theft tab is, one thing is clear: the annual freight bill covering theft and malfeasance in the trucking industry would dwarf the size of most trucking companies in America.

The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) is fighting back. It is launching its Freight Fraud Prevention Hub, a new industry resource designed to protect carriers, shippers, third-party logistics providers (3PLs), brokers, technology providers and other logistics stakeholders against this national scourge.

The idea is to better educate, detect and prevent the growing threat of freight fraud, NMFTA says.

As of last October, the annual cost of freight fraud to the U.S. transportation industry is $6.6 billion. That’s according to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI).

According to CargoNet’s annual analysis, the average value per theft rose to $273,990, up 36 percent from $202,364 in 2024.

To show how profitable cargo theft can be, a simple 53-foot trailer full of cigarettes from North Carolina can fetch more than $1 million in New York City. It’s profitable because of the much lower cigarette taxes in North Carolina compared to New York City.

But thieves will steal anything in a truck. A 12-ton shipment of Nestle KitKat chocolate bars was recently stolen in Europe, with cargo thieves swiping the candy in transit between production and distribution hubs.

According to a March 29 release from KitKat, the truck carrying the candy was stolen in the time between leaving a factory in Central Italy and its scheduled arrival in Poland. In total, thieves are believed to have made off with more than 400,000 chocolate bars, all of which remain unaccounted for.

“We’ve always encouraged people to have a break with KitKat—but it seems thieves have taken the message too literally and made a break with more than 12 tons of our chocolate," a KitKat spokesperson said, adding that cargo theft has become an "escalating issue for businesses of all sizes."

Freight fraud continues to evolve in sophistication, impacting supply chain efficiency, safety and trust. NMFTA’s Freight Fraud Prevention Hub serves as a centralized destination for educational content, practical tools and timely insights focused on carrier identity, impersonation risks and fraud-prevention best practices.

“As freight fraud continues to rise across the industry, education and verification are critical,” Joe Ohr, chief operating officer for NMFTA, said in a statement. “The Hub reflects the industry’s commitment to protecting the integrity of carrier identification and supporting the entire supply chain with clear, actionable resources.”

On Capitol Hill, legislation has been introduced to try and stem cargo theft. Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), has introduced the “Securing American Freight Enforcement and Reliability in Transport Act” (SAFER Act) to fight the scourge of cargo theft.

The bill faces an uncertain future, but is worthy of consideration. “Americans deserve safe and reliable supply chains and roads,” said Young, chairman of the Surface Transportation, Freight, Pipelines and Safety subcommittee in the Senate.

The Freight Fraud Prevention Hub launch coincides with NMFTA’s SCAC Verified campaign. SCAC is a Standard Carrier Alpha Code, a unique 2-to-4-letter identifier developed by the NMFTA to identify transportation companies.

While the recent launch of SCAC Verified strengthens carrier identity verification, the Hub provides the industry with education, tools, and best practices to detect and prevent fraud across the supply chain.

The Hub currently offers these aids:

•  Freight Fraud Prevention Best Practices to help organizations reduce risk. “Fraud Basics” educational content explaining how fraud works, and how it impacts the transportation system;
•   Expert webinars and insights with industry leaders sharing real-world fraud trends and prevention strategies; and
•   Ongoing insights and partner contributions to help organizations stay ahead of emerging fraud threats.

NMFTA reminds its members that freight fraud cannot be solved in silos. Preventing it requires a shared industry response. Industry organizations are invited to join the Freight Fraud Prevention Hub Partner Program and collaborate with peers to share expertise, insights, and strategies to combat freight fraud.

To explore the Freight Fraud Prevention Hub or to get involved, visit www.freightfraudhub.com.

According to the report, Amazon and the USPS came to terms on a new agreement, in which the USPS will handle roughly 80% of its existing deliveries, representing around 1.7 billion packages and $6 billion in revenue annually, from Amazon, representing a 20% reduction from current levels, which the report said was initially to be closer to a two-thirds reduction.

In December, USPS announced that that shippers of all sizes would be able to access more than 18,000 USPS delivery destination units (DDU) across the country. USPS explained that this will be done through a solicitation process to start accepting around late January or early into February. And it added that in advance of setting up a dedicated bid solicitation platform, the USPS would communicate with shippers, regarding the procedure and also to gauge interest in participation, as well as “fine-tune” the bidding process based on feedback to provide the most effective platform,” with more details announced over the coming months.  

Adi Karamcheti, Consultant, Professional Services, had a different take on this development, when it was initially announced, saying it does not make sense, in that it seems like an attempt by the USPS to either get more from Amazon or to get UPS to work with them again.

"USPS claiming this process is open to shippers large and small, doesn't make a lot of sense," he said. "You really need to be big in order to directly inject into the Post office network. I'm not sure playing a game of chicken with Amazon is really the best idea. It's a high-risk move. Amazon's reaction could be to build out their network even faster than they are currently doing." 

To that end, Amazon has remained on track in building out its network, following its June 2025 announcement, in which it said it was making a $4 billion investment towards tripling its delivery network by the end of 2026, with a focus on small towns and rural areas.

Feedback regarding the updated agreement between the USPS and Amazon was well-received by industry observers.

“With Amazon and the USPS reaching a new deal, it looks like the USPS has averted a disaster of losing its top customer soon after announcing it would run out of cash in February,” said Paul Yaussy, Head of Parcel Contract Intelligence, at Loop. “Apparently, Amazon is cutting its footprint with the USPS by 20%, which is dramatically different than some reports we had heard saying it could be nearly triple that. So, it would appear to be a win-win for now as USPS avoids having to find a replacement for its largest shipper and Amazon buys more time to execute on its apparent long-term plan of insourcing most of its package volume.”

Rob Martinez, founder of San Diego-based Shipware, called it an important announcement, in that Amazon is keeping a low-cost last-mile partner, especially in rural and less populated areas where USPS offers an advantage. 

“The partnership with the Postal Service helps Amazon manage its delivery costs—Amazon knows exactly how much it costs to deliver a package through its own network compared to handing it off to USPS, often the cheaper choice,” he said. “This helps Amazon protect its profit margins, stay flexible with its delivery options, and avoid building its own network in places where it would not be worth the investment.  It's also noteworthy that the announced USPS contract demonstrates that Amazon’s strategy of bringing deliveries in-house has its limits.  

For the Postal Service, it's quite possibly an existential win.  Retaining around 80% of Amazon volume protects a multi-billion-dollar revenue stream and maintains network density. It also signals that USPS remains a critical piece of the U.S. parcel ecosystem despite competitive pressures. USPS remaining viable and relevant preserves a third major delivery option, which is critical leverage in contract negotiations with UPS and FedEx, and it helps keep last-mile pricing in check, particularly for lightweight residential deliveries.”

John Haber, Chief Strategy Officer, for Transportation Insight said this announcement was not surprising, adding Amazon and USPS reaching an agreement was expected.  

“It’s a very interesting and complex situation with many questions,” he said. “Will the USPS make a profit on the new deal with Amazon? Does it have to make a profit?  Will Amazon make a profit on the new deal with the USPS? Does it have to make a profit?”

This development comes at a time when the USPS’s financial outlook has been under scrutiny for years, due, in large part, to traditional first-class mail, once the backbone of the organization’s business model, having steadily declined as more communication moves online. Over the past 15 years, billions of pieces of mail have disappeared from the system.

USPS Postmaster General David P. Steiner said the agency’s financial situation remains serious, with the organization having hired restructuring advisers to review its finances as leaders warn the agency could run out of money by 2027 if major changes are not made.

“We are out of cash in 12 months if we don’t do anything different,” he said.

As oil and gas prices continue to see significant increases, going back to the launched joint strikes by the United States and Israel more than four weeks ago, in an initiative geared towards halting Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, for the week of April 6, the national average price per gallon of diesel came in at $5.643 per gallon. This represents a $2.004 annual increase and a 24.2-cent increase compared to the week of March 30, which came in at $5.401. The all-time high, for the national weekly diesel average, at $5.783 per gallon, was during the week of June 27, 2022, according to EIA data.

The average price per gallon, for the week of March 16, was $5.071, topping the week ending March 9, at $4.859. What’s more, prior to the last three weeks, the last time the national diesel average topped the $5 per gallon mark was the week of November 28, 2022, when it was at $5.141 per gallon.

Before that, the national average, for the week of March 2, was up 8.8 cents, to $3.897, following a 9.8-cent gain, to $3.809, for the week of February 23—which marked the previously highest weekly gain since a 9.4-cent increase, to $3.50, for the week of January 26, prior to this week. This was preceded by a 2.3-cent gain, to $3.711, for the week of February 16, and 0.007-cent increase, to $3.688, for the week of February 9.

This gain followed three weeks of sharp gains, including: a 5.7-cent increase, to $3.861, for the week of February 2; a 9.4-cent increase, to $3.50, for the week of January 26, and a 7.1-cent increase, to $3.530 per gallon, for the week of January 19. The latter two weeks of gains represented, at the time, the highest ones since a 20.4-cent increase, to $3.775 per gallon, for the week of June 23, 2025.

WTI crude is currently trading at $115.96 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from $103.42 a week ago at this time and down from a high of $119.98 on March 9.

Armada Corporate Intelligence Managing Director Keith Prather recently told LM the biggest concern, in the supply chain, at the moment, is the price of diesel.

“From a carrier perspective, like in trucking, historically, when you see prices rise like they did in 2008 and also in 2022, we started seeing a material loss of capacity in the trucking industry,” he said. “For a lot of smaller firms who just don't have the cash flow, they can't flip those invoices, and they are at a point where they literally cannot fill their trucks. I don't know how it's going to end, but, again, from a supply chain perspective, diesel is probably the biggest impact.

On the maritime side, I think, adding another 11-to-12 days of transit around the Cape of Good Hope is going to be kind of the norm for at least the short-term. From an economic perspective, 30 days of disruption seems to be that critical point. If we go up to and beyond 30 days, then we start having a material global impact on the economy. If we see kind of see conditions continue to be volatile inside Iran, and we then see the rest of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea and other areas, other Middle Eastern partners starting to free up the flow of goods and the movement of materials, then we probably, we probably see this whole situation calm down, and the economy kind of reverts back to, sort of fundamentally, where it was before the conflict started. We've got some critical weeks ahead of us. I think everyone's going to really pay attention to this situation.”

Looking at the impact of rising diesel prices on trucking, Ken Adamo, Chief of Analytics, at DAT, explained that he estimates a typical large, publicly-traded national fleet is probably running their trucks at close to nine miles per gallon, with 80%-to-90% of their contracts with shippers locked in at six-and-a-half miles per gallon.

“That starts to asymptote as it goes up, with carriers putting an extra $0.10-to-$0.15 per mile into that and probably dialing down their speed limiters,” said Adamo. “It is probably going to create a more hostile environment, I think, for small carriers. This is something shippers understand, and that factors into contract negotiations.”

Mike Regan, Chief Relationship Officer, at TranzAct Technologies, said that the recent steep gains in diesel have resulted in what he called a “state of turmoil” for supply chains, especially in the ocean container market, as it relates to steep accessorial charges being implemented since the beginning of the Iran conflict, ranging from $300 up to $2,000—which has affected supply chain predictability.

Addressing the gains in diesel prices in recent weeks, Regan explained that goods will continue to move, as long as shippers are willing to pay the price.

“This situation does not ‘affect’ your supply chain, however, it does affect your freight costs,” he said. “So, consequently, coupled with rate increases, when I take a $1 increase, the fuel surcharge is actually $1.25. And diesel is now over $5 per gallon. The carriers are making money, in that they don’t buy at the national diesel price, but the price of the surcharge is based on EIA data unless carriers have a negotiated fuel agreement [through a third party]. Carriers are making a little bit more money than they would be if you were pegging it to what their fuel costs are.”

What’s more, Regan said that there is a lingering unknown related to fuel prices, in that nobody knows what the price of fuel will be in the coming weeks and months.   

The report, entitled “2026 U.S. Seaports Outlook,” explained, in looking back at 2025, that U.S. port activity transitioned from pandemic-era volatility to a more normal trade environment.

“At major gateways, total container volumes generally stabilized at historically higher levels, with growth concentrated in select regions but tempered by trade policy uncertainty, shifting global demand, and inventory recalibration,” the report stated.

Stephanie Rodriguez, National Director of Industrial Services for the US at Colliers, told LM that the U.S. seaport stabilization in 2025 resulted from supply chains normalizing, which followed pandemic-era disruptions, with stronger baseline volumes supported by steady consumer demand and increasingly diversified global sourcing.

“At the same time, front-loading of imports, improved port efficiency, and a shift toward East and Gulf Coast gateways helped mitigate regional volatility,” said Rodriguez. “Despite ongoing trade policy shifts and geopolitical risks, these dynamics have contributed to a more consistent level of cargo flow.”

When asked if East and Gulf Coast ports can continue to gain, or maintain, current share, she explained that East and Gulf Coast ports are more likely to maintain and gradually gain share, though not at the same pace seen during the peak pandemic shift.

The reason for that, she said, is that those ports benefit from proximity to the largest U.S. population centers and continued population growth in the Sunbelt, along with strong access to rail and inland distribution networks, making them highly efficient for reaching end consumers.

“Ongoing channel deepening and terminal expansions also allow them to handle larger vessels, narrowing the historical capacity gap with West Coast gateways,” said Rodriguez. “Supply chain diversification away from a single West Coast entry point remains a priority for many shippers, reinforcing a multi-port strategy that favors East and Gulf Coast ports.”

From an investment perspective, the report observed that seaports are making "aggressive infrastructure investments,” in various ways, including expanding berth capacity, deepening channels, enhancing on-dock rail, and modernizing terminals for larger vessels and improved efficiency, with noting that rail connectivity—and enabling faster inland distribution and less reliance on trucking—remains a priority.

These types of investments can also be beneficial in helping to offset the short-term vacancy increases caused by elevated levels of new supply, according to Rodriguez.

“Vacancy rates in most markets are already stabilizing or are expected to do so in 2026,” she said. “Industrial space under construction has fallen to its lowest level nationally since 2017 nationwide, and new supply continues to decline each quarter. Investments in berth capacity, channel depth, on-dock rail, and terminal efficiency increase throughput, reduce dwell times, and expand a port’s effective reach inland. For industrial investors, that translates into larger and more reliable cargo flows, deeper tenant demand pools (3PLs, retailers, manufacturers), and stronger long-term rent growth — particularly in port-proximate and intermodal-driven submarkets.”

As for how the ongoing Iran conflict could impact seaport-focused leasing and investment activity, she said that the Iran conflict, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — may impact seaport-focused leasing and investment activity through cost volatility, shifting trade flows, and changes in shipper behavior driven by heightened geopolitical risk.

“While the conflict may create short-term disruptions and uncertainty, longer-term trends are positive for port-adjacent industrial real estate,” she said.

The firm explained that, in February, dry van and temperature-controlled markets experienced their largest three-month spot rates increase going back to Spring 2020, coming in at 21% and 13%, respectively, with the caveat that this data does not extend through February 28, when the Iran conflict began, while also noting that the conflict has, and will continue to, send rates up and also continue to trim down capacity.

The pricing data in this report is based on actual loads moved by large retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, and other industry stakeholders in DAT iQ’s shipper consortium.

The March Signal Report issued the following for February:

• Dry van contract rates hit $2.18/mile, up 4.2% annually, with spot at $2.35/mile. The New Rate Differential (NRD), which measures what new contracts are being signed at versus the ones they’re replacing, held at +4.2%, the clearest sign yet that carriers are winning rate increases;
• Temperature-controlled freight posted its highest NRD since May 2022 at +3.9%, with contract rates at $2.47/mile and the Contract Rate Index at a two-and-a-half-year high of 22.4%; and
• Flatbed’s NRD jumped to +5.4%—also the highest since May 2022—meaning new contracts are being written at a significant premium to expiring ones.
• Intermodal bounced back with an NRD of +1.6% and its highest Contract Rate Index since October 2023, though tariff uncertainty remains a drag.

Looking ahead, the 12-month forecast from Dat iQ expects dry van contract and spot rates to head up by 8% and 12%, respectively, with the company telling shippers that are still operating on 2025 pricing, the window to secure favorable pricing terms is “probably closed,” coming in before the fuel cost gains start to appear in the numbers.

In an interview with LM, DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo that there are a few key things to consider in looking at contract and spot rates, in terms of where things may be headed.

“On the spot side, there is seasonality coming up and depending on how the spring and summer shipping season go, there are going to be some seasonal effects there,” he said. “I do think there is some upward mobility in spot rates, for sure. But we have this interesting conundrum where spot rates are up about 20% year-over-year, and New Rate Differential is up 7%-to-10%, depending on what sector you look at. But paid contract rates are dead flat. That creates this massive amount of tension, where the longer spot rates stay elevated, it is eventually going to drag the paid contract rates up, and normally that only lags by a couple of months. We are probably at a couple of quarters now and it has not pulled the contract rates up.”

One reason for that, he said, is that a lot of the spot market disruption was acute, in that it was due to weather and fuel, leaving shippers not keen on making long-term business decisions, nor upsetting their entire routing guide until they see what the market looks like later, when the weather disruptions are not as severe and the Iran conflict is possibly over.

To that end, as an example, Adamo said that some large shippers are postponing some of their bid events until later in the year, and the ones that signed deals in the fourth quarter are willing to absorb a spot market loss somewhat, as opposed to doing a rebid during a time of volatility.

“A large Fortune 500 shipper would explain right now it is struggling to understand fuel, it did not budget for this,” said Adamo. “And 30% of a shipper’s freight spend has gone up by 50% in rough numbers. Honestly, the rates they are paying in the spot market right now is probably the least concerning. You are seeing bids now from the first quarter that are coming in 7%-to-10% higher, which serves as a good sign of things normalizing.”

Looking ahead, Adamo said that the question remains in regards to if spot rates remain high enough to drag contract rates all the way up or are they likely to meet somewhere in the middle this summer, with DAT’s baseline contract rate forecast calling for contract rates to come in around 10%-to-12% higher annually.

And while it may be too late to get more favorable terms, he explained it is not likely there will be a penalty for waiting one quarter, which is what is happening with shippers pushing bids out.

“There is a higher probability it goes down a little bit rather than go up a little more,” he said. “They are sort of viewing it like they are going to wait it out and see if this rally peters out a little bit post-spring. But some of these big-box retailers have been running bids in the second quarter for decades—and for some of them to push this into the third quarter during the buildup to the retail shipping peak is a pretty big gamble on their part, both in terms of internal process and also where the market may be headed.

A March 2026 rate snapshot from DAT, not in the DAT iQ report, found that March dry van, reefer, and flatbed rates came in at $1.99 (up 1.5% annually), $2.30 (flat annually) and $2.52 (down 1.6% annually), respectively, with spot rates, for the three modes, at $1.81 (up 13% annually), $2.19 (up 17.7% annually), and $2.23 (up 7.7% annually).

The March Services PMI, at 54.0 (a reading above 50 represents expansion and below 50 indicates contraction), fell 2.1%, from February to March, growing, at a faster rate, for the 21^st consecutive month, while the overall economy grew, at a slower rate, for the 21^st consecutive month.

The March Services PMI reading is 1.7% above the 52.3 12-month average, with February marking the highest reading for that period and May 2025’s 50.2 marking the lowest.

ISM reported that 13 of the services sectors it tracks saw growth in March, including: Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Mining; Construction; Utilities; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. Sectors reporting contraction included: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Public Administration.

The report’s subindexes that factor into the PMI largely saw gains, including:

• Business Activity/Production, at 53.9, growing, at a slower rate, for the 21st consecutive month, for its lowest reading, going back to September’s 50.2, with 11sectors seeing gains;
• New Orders, at 60.6, rose 2.0%, growing, at a faster rate, for the 10th consecutive month (and expanding in 37 of the last 39, months), with 14 sectors reporting increases in new orders;
• Employment, at 45.2, was down 6.6%, contracting, after three months of growth, with five sectors reporting employment growth; and
• Supplier Deliveries, at 56.2 (a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries), up 2.3%, slowing, at a faster rate, for the 16^th consecutive month, with 11 sectors reporting slower deliveries

Comments from ISM member panelists included in the report highlighted various trends in the services sector, with tariffs, business conditions, and the Iran conflict again each receiving a fair amount of attention.

“Tariff rollbacks are resulting in favorable price adjustments, but the news of new implementation is driving continued uncertainty,” said an Accommodation & Food Services panelist. “Snowstorms last month disrupted demand and supplier operations, mostly around the availability of labor. Forecasted seasonal growth is starting to materialize due to daylight savings time and higher temperatures.”

A Real Estate, Rental & Leasing panelist observed that the Iran conflict has added an additional layer of uncertainty on top of an already shaky macroeconomic climate, adding that a spike in inflation due to higher oil prices will reduce purchasing power, affecting nearly industry. And a Transportation & Warehousing panelist said that recent increases in fuel prices are having a substantial impact on the airline industry, resulting in significantly higher operational costs compared to pricing from the previous month.

In an interview with LM, Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said that the majority of the March report’s subindexes remained in expansion territory.

“Other than the Prices index [up 7.7% to 70.7 and increasing for 106 consecutive months], the services sector is weathering the concerns and initial impacts of the Iran conflict amid a lot of commentary about fuel, energy, and oil prices heading up,” said Miller. “The services sector has a direct relationship to discretionary spending, coupled with not being able to avoid higher fuel costs. And the more that impacts the ability to spend also impacts sectors like retail, construction, and accommodation & food services.”

What’s more, the uncertainty related to the duration of the Iran conflict makes it more difficult to gauge how things will look in the coming months, too.

To that end, Miller noted that, for March New Orders, Real Estate, Rental & Leasing and Wholesale Trade led the pack.

“You can see where Wholesale Trade can have an impact on the war, from a manufacturing standpoint, and you have to move more product to get into production to drive manufacturing,” he said. “Real Estate, Rental & Leasing was unusual to be one of the leaders for New Orders growth.

The report also signaled what Miller called significant forecasting around the risk and potential impact related to oil price increases, which could translate into further increases in prices, at a point when they are very high.

The DCP is a voluntary buyout and severance program offered by UPS to its delivery drivers, in exchange for a lump-sum payment, with eligible drivers given the option to take part, and accept payout if the take the offer and leave the company.

UPS said that this agreement came to fruition, following what it called constructive discussions with the Teamsters over the last week.

“We have reached an agreement to offer our Driver Choice Program (DCP) on a nationwide basis, including in the Central Region,” said UPS. “This outcome aligns with our objective to provide all U.S. drivers with options as we continue to reconfigure our network. The DCP has been well received by our employees, with strong interest across the country. Applications will be approved based on seniority and the needs of the business, as originally planned. As UPS makes changes to position itself for the future, our focus remains the same — supporting our people while delivering the reliable service our customers expect.”

As previously reported by LM, in late March, UPS pulled back its latest driver buyout program in the Teamsters’ Central Region after nearly 37 local unions filed grievances challenging the offer.

The Teamsters said, at the time, that UPS informed the union on March 24 that it would withdraw the program across the region, which covers 13 states from Nebraska to Ohio. The union said the move affected more than a dozen states and could make it harder for UPS to continue similar buyout offers elsewhere under the National Master Agreement.

In explaining the terms of the new agreement, the Teamsters said that UPS will be limited in the number of severance packages it can offer, with those UPS Teamsters that accept the offer to receive $150,000 payments for early retirement. It added that these offers will be made to long-haul feeder drivers and Regular Package Drivers based on seniority throughout the country and also that UPS has agreed not to pursue or offer any other severance programs for the life of the current Teamsters National Master Agreement that is intact through July 31, 2028. What’s more, the Teamsters noted that this settlement puts a cap on the total number of severance payments at 7,500 drivers for all national job classifications.

“UPS never had the contractual right to unilaterally offer driver buyouts, but with enough pressure and member solidarity UPS finally did the right thing by putting its commitments to hardworking Teamsters down in writing,” said Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien. “Lifelong Teamsters who have given so much of themselves to making UPS the king of parcel delivery will have the right of first refusal on any severance agreements. Union seniority and the rights of all our members will be honored. UPS will no longer have the chance to go around the union without giving Teamsters the respect they deserve at the bargaining table.”

In February, the Teamsters filed an emergency motion for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction against UPS in regards to the DCP.

In its motion, the Teamsters called on UPS to end its plan, “to roll out a second illegal buyout scam targeting UPS Teamster drivers.”

Prior to this agreement being reached, a UPS representative told LM last week that as the company navigates changes and continues to reshape its network, UPS drivers appreciate having choices, including the option to make a career change or retire earlier than planned.

"We engaged with the Teamsters on this topic in early January," said the represenative. "We are disappointed the Teamsters have chosen to oppose a program that is entirely voluntary and would provide a great benefit to our employees, particularly as we continue to right-size our workforce.”

The Visionary Award is the conference’s highest honor and recognizes organizations demonstrating leadership across supply chain strategy, technology, and organizational development.

Tractor Supply will accept the award at the NextGen Supply Chain Conference, Oct. 21–23, 2026, in Nashville, Tennessee.

Accepting on behalf of Tractor Supply will be Colin Yankee, EVP of Supply Chain. Yankee will participate in NextGen’s Visionary Keynote fireside chat and will discuss Tractor Supply’s supply chain journey.

Please click here to read the complete article. 

Rail carloads, at 233,833, were off 0.8% annually, topping the weeks ending March 21 and March 14, at 227,252, and 228,299, respectively.

AAR reported that six of the 10 carload commodity groups it tracks saw annual gains, including chemicals, up 2,027 carloads, to 36,589; petroleum and petroleum products, up 1,129 carloads, to 11,239; and grain, up 819 carloads, to 24,010. Commodity groups posting annual declines included: coal, down 5,295 carloads, to 57,636; nonmetallic minerals, down 1,186 carloads, to 30,174; and metallic ores and metals, down 406 carloads, to 20,201.

Intermodal containers and trailers, at 282,088 units, saw a 1.6% annual increase, coming in ahead of the weeks ending March 21 and March 14, at 274,699 and 280,438, respectively.

Through the first 12 weeks of 2026, AAR reported that U.S. rail carloads, at 2,684,108, are up 4.2% annually, and intermodal units, at 3,311,403, are off 0.2% annually.

As the global supply chain stakeholders look back at the past year—in terms of the impact of Liberation Day, which led to what, at times, felt like an interminable stanza of on and off trade policies and tariffs on United States trading partners, it is not even close to easy, when it comes to measuring the impacts of what the industry has been through on that front over the past year—and very likely well into the future.

Without providing a play-by-play of the myriad of tariffs implemented by the White House, whose key objectives through tariffs are to reduce the nation’s trade deficit, stem the illegal flow of fentanyl into the U.S., and build up domestic manufacturing, it essentially goes without saying, regardless of personal views, that they had the collective impact of, as an industry friend said, of “throwing a hand grenade on the entire global trade system,” as to how it upended global trade processes and operations.

That quickly became obvious, immediately obvious, really.

Liberation Day was the beginning of what is, and remains, a wild ride, for shippers, especially as it relates to sourcing, transportation, procurement, staffing, and every other operational aspect of their businesses. That was very clear early on. And there was no true playbook for shippers to figure out how to counter the ostensible daily shifts in policy and planning, with things really in flux, at some times more than others.

One of those periods, or a few of them, saw importers “front-loading” or “pulling-forward” cargo, in order to get ahead of tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect or perhaps increase on a certain date, in order to build up inventories so they did not get burned at a later date. That led to periods of significant import growth at various U.S.-based ports, sometimes during periods that were traditionally slower.  

Another pronounced impact of Liberation Day resulted in updated supply chain lexicon— “supply chain uncertainty”—which highlighted how many shippers felt hamstrung by the inconsistent and erratic manner in which tariffs were implemented. Supply chain uncertainty may very well be the supply chain thesis for 2025 and into 2026, to date.

While tariffs are still intact, a landmark February Supreme Court decision ruled against the legality of the White House’s IEEPA tariffs. As expected, the White House quickly pivoted with 10% Section 122 tariffs that are in effect through late July. After then, the fate of the Section 122 tariffs remains unclear, at the moment.

What’s more, in recent weeks, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced Section 301 investigations under the Trade Act of 1974 related to what it called structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors, beginning with China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, and India. And it subsequently followed up with an announcement indicating it has added another 60 countries to its Section 301 investigations list. The impetus for the additional investigations, according to USTR, is to determine whether acts, policies, and practices of each of these economies related to the failure to impose and effectively enforce a ban on the importation of goods produced with forced labor are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict U.S. commerce. 

Are things different just over a year later since Liberation Day was announced? It seems hard to make a case against that, to be honest. To that end, it seems like tariffs, regardless of the current implementation percentage, are now a truly permanent part of the global trade order. Shippers and all other industry stakeholders are fully aware of this and need to gameplan it into their current operations and future forecasts, especially as it relates to capital expenditures, transportation operations, asset management, technology, and staffing, and other things, too.

With no clear sign of the Iran conflict coming to a resolution, that is another major component shippers need to manage, given the ongoing significant run-up in diesel prices. There is never a dull day in logistics, to be sure.

What happens now remains to be seen, either way the global supply chain continues to adjust and adapt to keep global trade and commerce moving.

Logistics Management (LM): In its most recent earnings release, project44 said that multi-year agreements accounted for 73% of annual recurring revenue (ARR), representing a big driver for the success last quarter and last year. What drove that, in your opinion?

Jett McCandless: The multi-year percentage of ARR is getting larger, and I think there's a couple of signals in there. One is that it means that the market has more confidence in the vendor selection process. And the market also has more confidence in the product value. What I mean by the first point is that I think was pretty difficult for the market before to decide: is it competitor A, B or project44 they should go with? And in the absence of that clarity, they naturally want lower-duration contracts. They can mitigate their risk, in case they selected the wrong vendor, and in case there was one that started to perform better throughout this kind of innovative cycle. And, so, what's happened is the market has clearly said that we are the winner and the leader and visibility. The second thing is, we offer more than visibility. We have the Decision Intelligence Platform that has Intelligent TMS, visibility, yard management and last-mile. The market is also saying, well, that really aligns well with their needs from technology, so let's sign a longer contract so that they can buy more products for longer durations, and so they can extract more value and build more processes around it.

LM: In the earnings release you made a comment about the company’s long-term platform strategy in terms of, it doesn't just show you what's happening, but it also predicts what's coming and takes action automatically. In a way, it sort of describes, how impactful your AI offering is and has become over the years. Does that address other things as well?

McCandless: That is spot on. I think the market is also saying AI is incredibly important. Our ideal customer profiles are global 2000 companies, and they're saying they don't want to go and build all this AI and all this infrastructure. In some cases, they do, and there's value to it. But when it comes to logistics and supply chain, they're looking for the AI to be embedded into the technology platform that they select, and specifically, because they don't want to deal with the security, they don't want to have to retool, do major overhauls to the talent that they have, and they also need context for the AI work. We have all that, and it's already set up, and it's literally clicks, not code, so the time to value is faster. That's really clear from the market, too. When we talk about AI, it's kind of a couple steps. With the Decision Intelligence Platform, you're predicting what's happened. We've been doing that for quite some time. And then you can actually help. I think of it in three different stages. Step one is to support with AI, and we've been doing that for really a couple years. The second is to augment, which is really where agents come in to a lot. The third is to automate. And we're at that point on certain parts of the workflow and logistics work. There's not even a human in the loop anymore. It's just doing work and getting it done. And I think the confidence in the market in that is reflective in the numbers,

LM: Do those three stages serve as the cornerstones for the Intelligent TMS project44 rolled out last year?

McCandless: Yes, they do. Our platform, in its simplest way, is really for four different layers. The first is to connect. It's kind of one the many API layers that we that we built, with that data fabric, connective tissue. The second layer is transportation visibility, in terms of things like sailing schedules from the carriers, what's happening at the terminals and the ports, what's happening with all the current events. And there's AI and connect, because not only do we have APIs now, but we also have agents connecting to the carriers. And we have a lot of agents that are being active there. It's great to have high fidelity data and to connect. It's great to be able to see what's happening, but it's kind of like, so what? Which is the third layer, which is to be able to act on it, so you can act with physical humans. You can have digital agents do the acting. The fourth is when you can pull this all together and be able to automate these decisions, either with a human in the loop or a human out of the loop.

LM: In a recent LinkedIn post, you said the following: “The reality in 2026 is that the intelligence layer sitting on top of your operations is now the most strategically sensitive link in your supply chain.” That's probably not something that a lot of people were really thinking about even just a few years ago, but things have just rapidly evolved, obviously. Do you see shippers embracing that approach of the intelligence layer sitting on top of operations being the most strategically sensitive link in the chain? It's starting to feel that way.

McCandless: I think so. I mean, I could just look at the data, which is the financial performance, and in a that is a bit of a lagging indicator as to what the market's done, because just the contract piece is often three-to-four months. If you think about that deals that we sign, using the fourth quarter results, those are decisions that were made late last summer. When I look for more leading indicators, I look at just usage of the platform and usage of the AI agents and tokens themselves and outcomes that are created, and that's all growing like a hockey stick. The shipment transaction count is also growing in the platform, but it's not growing at the same rate as the actual outcome and agent transactions. But if I also look at the individual customer level, shipment volume is relatively flat, which it kind of always is on these mature companies—you don't see Starbucks have a 20% spike, for example. It's relatively flat for these mature companies that kind of grows like GDP rates plus or minus. But the agent and AI usage is growing at a parabolic rate within each customer base in the platform. That just tells me that there's a lot more value being created, and leaders know they want this intelligence in their operations.

LM: With project44 having significant exposure to a varied shipper client base across so many different verticals, are there things you are hearing from shippers, especially these days, as it relates to their biggest challenges and concerns?

McCandless: I think the main things that these shippers tend to be thinking about right now is that the speed of disruptions is happening at a faster pace than it ever has before, and they just don't have the ability internally to make decisions as fast as they need to with the tooling and investments that have made historically. The other thing that they are nervous about is AI itself. How does it impact their organization? What are their competitors doing? But, also, how does it change demand planning? For example, how demand cycles used to be done is so much different now. If there is an irregular weather event, with a nice day amid a series of bad ones, people are going to grill, get car wash stuff, and buy shorts, frisbees as part of a surge. And companies are also going to do advertisements on Tiktok and Instagram, which is going to create these surges that aren't in these normal cycles. It costs money to do those advertisements. So, if Coca-Cola starts to run out because there's more Coke during hot days, they don't want to be spending money on ads locally, here in Chicago, if they don't have enough supply, because one, you have a negative customer experience, they don't have the supply. So, in order to do that, not only do you have more disruptions that are happening from geopolitical, kinetic impacts, and tariffs, you also have this demand change that's happening. Then they have, of course, the AI themselves on how should they approach that and stay competitive in the market. And then they are starting to be concerned about carrier rates rising, which had some really easy years and benefits here recently. But that's starting to be a challenge too, and just thinking about actual capacity, of pick up and deliver within their service requirements.

LM: The Iran conflict has various logistics ramifications, with oil at the top of the list. What are you hearing from your customers that have exposure to the Middle East and what are some of the things that they've been talking to you about, or looking for from project44 to help navigate that type of situation?

McCandless: Since we have the global 2000, one of the things that's really top of mind is a lot of them have a presence or people or offices in that region of the world where this has kind of expanded into. Getting those people safe is certainly top of mind. The second thing then is, do they have the systems and processes if these people are not available to keep that kind of region of the world moving and operating. Turkey is a really large growing market, but maybe it was serviced out of Dubai from a logistics coordination center, so that's certainly relevant. When we look at blank sailings, we see a large increase there, because ships are out of cycle, and that's impacting things across the world itself.

That is clear in weekly intermodal volume data published by the Association of American Railroads (AAR), which shows that U.S. intermodal volumes, through March are off 0.2% annually.

While the ongoing, and significant, rise in diesel prices has yet to materially boost intermodal volumes, it does not mean that the potential for it to do so has abated.

“This is the thing I'm watching most closely because, as capacity and demand tighten in trucking, intermodal stands to increase its overall share,” explained Andrew Sibold, Director of Economics, at the Intermodal Association of North America. “The only potential hiccup would be if the shift to intermodal were to swamp capacity, but this is unlikely in the near term, since all of our efficiency metrics show the network operating very efficiently.”

From a modal shift perspective, a research note published by Baird & Co. analyst Daniel Moore, observed that intermodal operates under what he called a distinct model that not only benefits economically from higher fuel prices, in that intermodal carriers are profitable on higher share, as well as gaining market share.

“Intermodal is roughly [around] 70% more fuel-efficient than traditional truckload, which means rising fuel costs widen its relative advantage and drive incremental volume,” wrote Moore.

To that end, the fuel savings intermodal provides are significant, as noted in a LinkedIn post by Chad Kennedy, Senior Product Manager, at DAT Freight & Analytics.

Kennedy explained that intermodal is currently around $0.90 cheaper than dry van on a per-mile basis, with that gap widening, as dry van re-prices faster while heading into a tightening market. What’s more, he noted that a 500-mile intermodal move results in around $445 savings per move, and a 2,000-mile load results in around $1,780 savings per move.

“For context: the spread peaked near $1.36 per mile during the 2021 van market spike, compressed to around $0.65 per mile at the soft market floor, and has been climbing since late 2024,” wrote Kennedy. “The tradeoff? Service. Shippers should expect an additional 1–2 days of transit time vs. trucking. Cost savings in exchange for planning lead time. Drop trailers' requirements on short-term projects can be limiting, too.”

That intermodal has not seen an increase in market share since the Iran conflict began does not come as a surprise, as that has been the case for more than a while.

Which was made clear by Rick LaGore, CEO of Indianapolis-based InTek Intermodal Logistics, while he made the case for why it should be seeing an increase in share, due to intermodal being cheaper on most long-haul lanes, with real savings in proven corridors—at a time when truckload capacity continues to tighten, rates are heading up, and the ongoing Iran conflict-driven surge in diesel prices.

“If we don’t see increased market share, something is wrong,” said LaGore. “Many shippers don’t understand the value that intermodal brings to the table. Part of it is they have a long memory, going back to the 2020-2022 timeframe around the pandemic, when many of them got burned [in terms of service]. So, they are willing to pay more to stay on a truck and not go back to intermodal. But things have changed since then, too.”

In terms of those changes, LaGore noted that more shippers are having conversations about modal conversion, albeit not to a high degree. A reason for that has to do with some shippers expecting market conditions to flip, coupled with safety-focused efforts by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) that are, in turn, reducing over-the-road capacity levels.

“Intermodal currently occupies a unique position in the market, particularly in the context of rising fuel prices,” stated Baird & Co. analyst Daniel Moore, “which has substantially reinforced its value proposition: 1) rail service metrics have improved relative to historical levels, making highway conversion more viable than ever; 2) the spread between truckload dry-van spot rates and intermodal pricing has expanded significantly since November of 2025; and 3) more recently high diesel prices have further expanded that spread, given intermodal's relative fuel efficiency advantage (~70%-80% more than truck by most accounts).”

A new report from Newmark shows the U.S. cold storage sector recorded about 3.5 million square feet of positive absorption in 2025. That comes at a time when vacancy has climbed to a 20-year high, a sign the market is still working through a wave of new supply.

At the same time, demand is becoming more selective. Companies are increasingly choosing newer, high-throughput facilities, while older buildings are seeing record levels of move-outs.

Newmark said modern cold storage sites captured a record share of absorption in 2025, driven by both newly delivered buildings and facilities designed around automation, energy efficiency, and throughput.

Please click here to read the complete article. 

This report, which was introduced earlier this year, meshes DAT’s benchmark analysis with U.S. Bank transaction volume, offering a composite view of freight costs, which include average per-mile contract, spot, and fuel rates—and serves as a complementary piece to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index.  

February spot and contract rates were up 3.6% and 0.1%, respectively, from January to February, with the report describing the gains as the result of a market where cost per mile rose ahead of any broad-based recovery in activity.

“For large shippers, this distinction is consequential: per-mile costs can rise, even when shipment counts feel steady, or down, because the market is being recalibrated by pricing and pricing leverage rather than a surge in volumes.

To that end, the report explained that shifts in spot linehaul pricing serve as a growth indicator, with spot linehaul rising to $2.01 per mile through February (up from $1.65 in November), following what it called a May 2025 “bottoming,” at $1.57 per mile. And contract linehaul moved from $1.99 per mile to $2.12 per mile (up from $2.02 in November) over the same timeframe. The gap between spot and contract rates compressed significantly, at around $0.39 per mile a year ago compared to about $0.11 per mile by March 2026, it also noted.

“As is often the case, spot markets registered tightening conditions ahead of contract pricing,” the report said. “Rates firmed across lanes even though demand growth was not clearly driven by higher shipment volumes.”

While there were rate gains in February, they were not commensurate with volumes, with the report noting that for the period from March 2025 through February 2026, spot linehaul rates were up 23.3% and contract linehaul was up around 5.0%. But for volumes, spot was down around 3.7% and contract fell 22.1%.

“That divergence is the core story: pricing strengthened even as activity, particularly on the contracted side, remained under pressure,” the report stated. “In practical terms, the market behaved as though capacity was being managed more tightly than demand was growing—consistent with a supply-led shift when carriers protect yield and become more selective.”

The report’s benchmark reading, the PMI, came in at 52.7, (a reading higher than 50 indicates growth), up 0.3% compared to February’s 52.4 reading, and 0.1% above January’s 52.6 reading, which marked a 4.7% gain over December, and represented the first positive PMI reading since a 50.0 reading in February 2025, with the PMI growing, at a faster pace, for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy growing, at a faster rate, for the 17^th consecutive month.

The March PMI was 3.1% above the 12-month average of 49.6, with March’s 52.7 and December’s 47.9 marking the respective high and lows for that period.

ISM reported that 13 manufacturing sectors— Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; and Chemical Products. The three industries seeing contraction were: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

ISM cited the following for the report’s key metrics in March:

• New Orders, at 53.5 fell 2.3%, growing, at a slower pace, for the third consecutive month, following February’s 55.8 and January’s 57.1, its highest reading since a February 2022 59.7 reading (prior to January the metric had not seen consistent growth since a 24-month stretch of growth ended in May 2022), with 11 sectors reporting growth in March;
• Production, at 55.1, increased 1.6% over February’s 53.5, trailing January’s 55.9 reading, its highest reading since February 2022’s 58.1, growing, at a faster rate, for the fifth consecutive month, with 10 sectors reporting growth;
• Employment, at 48.7, fell 0.1%, contracting, at a faster rate, for the 30^th consecutive month, and down in 38 of the last 39 months, with 18 sectors reporting growth;
• Supplier Deliveries, at 58.9 (a reading over 50 indicates slower deliveries), were up 3.8% compared to February, slowing, at a faster rate, for the fourth consecutive month, with 13 sectors reporting slower deliveries;
• Inventories, at 47.1, fell 1.7%, contracting, at a faster rate, for the 11^th consecutive month with four sectors reporting higher inventories;
• Customers’ Inventories, at 40.1, were up 1.3%, coming in too low, at a slower rate, for the 18th consecutive month; and
• Prices, at 78.3, were up 7.8%, increasing, at a faster rate, for the 18^th consecutive month, with 17 sectors reporting higher prices, hitting its highest reading since June 2022’s 78.5 reading

Economic conditions, tariffs, and the ongoing Iran conflict were among the main themes cited in ISM panelists’ comments.

“Changes in the tariff structure are bringing cautious opportunities to offset significant costs for the balance of 2026,” observed a Transportation Equipment panelist. “The actions in Iran, however, add a new wrinkle to energy costs throughout the world, including India. We continue to try and plan for the unpredictable and unexpected.”

And a Chemical Products panelist noted that geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in Iran are contributing to rising manufacturing supply costs, and ongoing tariff uncertainty is negatively impacting purchasing strategies and cost forecasts.

In an interview with LM, Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, explained that while manufacturing is growing, with the PMI up for three months and Production up for five months, the outlook remains muddled.

“The situation in the Middle East feels like it is particularly hurtful, because it is on top of other chaos,” she said. “That was made clear in the panelists’ comments, too, pointing to things like how geopolitical instability has emerged as a persistent factor influencing global trade dynamics.”

Spence also added that the current tariff outlook—with the Supreme Court ruling in February that the White House’s IEEPA tariffs were illegal, coupled with the current 10% Section 122 tariffs intact through late July and ongoing Section 301 investigations—puts manufacturers in a tough spot, in that shifting trade policies make it difficult for companies to plan and make capital investments.

That also holds true on the pricing side, as evidenced by March’s 7.8% increase, following February’s 11% gain.

In the report, Spence said that the Prices Index reading continues to be driven by (1) increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, (2) tariffs applied to many imported goods and now (3) increases in petroleum-based products as a result of the recent Middle East conflict.  

Addressing New Orders, which are considered the engine moving manufacturing, Spence said that while March was up again, it has seen sequential declines going back to the beginning of 2026.

“It's still growing, but the growth is slowing down, and some of the other readings—like Production and Backlog of Orders have the same kind of trajectory,” she said. “With Production going up again, without the New Orders staying at least the same or a little better, I think we're going to see, like we did last August in a couple of months, if Production starts waning off as they send the goods through the line. And if the pipeline isn't filling at the same rate, then that's going to dip and could dip the PMI back down, unless orders are forthcoming.”

Total retail sales, at $738.4 billion, eked out a 0.6% gain over January and were up 3.7% annually. It added that total retail sales, from December through January, posted a 3.1% gain compared to the same period a year ago.

Commerce reported that retail trade sales increased 0.6%, from January to February, and were up 3.5% annually. And non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce, saw sales rise 7.5% annually, and food services and drinking places rose 5.2% annually.

NRF forecast: Last month, the National Retail Federation (NRF) called for retail sales gains in 2026, to the tune of a 4.4% annual increase to $5.6 trillion, according to a forecast it developed in a partnership with Oxford Economics, an independent economic advisory firm. NRF said its forecast is based on its own definition of core retail sales and excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

What’s more, despite the many ongoing issues, at the moment, NRF observed that this year’s forecast surpassed the 10-year average annual sales growth rate over the last 10 years, at 3.6%. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said that consumer spending represented what he called a steady and reliable growth engine in 2025, while broader economic conditions saw fluctuation. And he added that, for 2026, NRF expects consumer resilience to remain intact, paced by household spending.

“Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape,” NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said. “While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead.”

The NRF executive also noted that the NRF forecast remains bifurcated between higher- and lower-income consumers, with higher-income households driving the majority of growth in spending across a range of retail categories. He said consumer activity is expected to receive a modest boost in the first half of the year, due to larger refunds associated with tax cuts enacted under the Working Families Tax Cut Act. As for inflation, he said it is projected to remain elevated through mid-year before easing by the third quarter, offering some relief to households as the year goes on.

Shay said that 2025 retail sales were up nearly 4%, coming in at a record $5.4 trillion. As for reasons that the economy remains on solid footing in 2026, Shay pointed to the trio of low unemployment, steady wage gains, and higher tax refunds—while also acknowledging ongoing policy uncertainty continues to weigh on both consumer and business confidence.

And, in looking at its 2026 forecast, NRF’s Mathews took a look back at the last 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022, when growth was “atypical,” he said retail sales growth averaged 3.6%, making the 4.4% 2026 forecast a “stronger-than-normal year,” he said.

“We expect this strength continue in 2026, with consumer spending once again providing key support for the economy,” he said. “In the first half of 2026, we expect a degree of stimulus to spending driven by larger refunds from tax cuts in the Working Families Tax Cut Act. Although we expect inflation to remain elevated in the first half of the year, inflation should fall off by Q3, providing a bit of relief to customers in the latter half of the year. While at a macro level, we continue to expect the consumer to be strong, we also anticipate that this will not be uniform across all income groups.”

With these greater responsibilities comes greater accountability. Respondents to Logistics Management’s 2026 Salary & Compensation Study oversee larger budgets, track more performance metrics and manage cross-functional initiatives that tie directly to company results. They also manage complex systems, guide capital investments and respond to disruptions in real time while balancing cost, service and risk.

Despite longer hours and a broader scope, the profession continues to draw new and experienced professionals alike. Many survey respondents describe steady career growth and strong engagement with their work, even as they acknowledge rising stress and heavier workloads. This year’s survey reflects a field expanding in scope and influence, with compensation moving in a similar direction.

“The profession is strong, and companies remain dependent on logistics and supply management as strategic functions,” says Jim Fleming, product development and innovation, and senior faculty manager at the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). “In fact, post-pandemic those two areas have become far more interdependent than they were before. Supply management can’t succeed without a strong logistics interface—and logistics can’t succeed without supply management.”

Fleming adds that interdependence also shows up in compensation trends, where he remembers a time when logistics took a backseat to procurement because companies didn’t truly recognize the former’s strategic value. That changed when disruptions forced organizations to restart supply chains almost overnight, and it stuck. Our 2026 Salary & Compensation Study backs that up with new data showing steady pay growth, expanding responsibilities and a profession that now sits firmly at the center of business performance.

A broad cross-section of the profession

The survey draws on responses for more than 160 qualified respondents. The group skews toward manufacturing, which accounts for 43% of participants, followed by distribution at 16%, retail trade at 10% and 3PL providers at 7%. Another 15% work in non-manufacturing industries. Within manufacturing, industrial machinery leads at 15%, chemicals and pharmaceuticals at 14%, and both food, beverage and tobacco and automotive and transportation equipment at 12%.

Company size varies widely. Twenty-two percent of respondents report estimated 2026 revenues below $50 million, while 17% fall between $50 million and $99.9 million. At the other end of the spectrum, 12% expect revenues of more than $2.5 billion this year, reflecting participation from both small and large enterprises.

Geographically, respondents span the country, with the Midwest representing 33% of the sample, followed by the Mid-Atlantic at 15%, the South at 14% and the West at 12%. The Midwest also posts the highest average salary at $126,200, with the Mid-Atlantic close behind at $125,500 and the West at $122,000. The mix of company sizes, industries and regions makes this one of the most representative snapshots of the profession you'll find.

Salaries are On the Rise

After dipping in 2025, salaries are heading back up. The average annual salary hit $126,400 in 2026, up from $120,600 the year before. That reversal matters because it confirms the 2025 slip was a blip, and not a trend. Nearly a third of respondents (32%) earn between $150,000 and $249,999, with 9% topping $250,000, which shows the high end of the profession is pulling further ahead.

The middle of the salary range is holding steady as well, with 31% of respondents earning between $100,000 and $149,999. Still, 10% of professionals earn less than $60,000, a reminder that the salary story isn't uniform across the field. Company size, region and scope of responsibility all impact pay in this field.  

Most professionals got a raise this year. Fifty-seven percent of respondents say their salary increased compared to 2025; 38% say it stayed the same; and just 5% say it dropped, down from 10% who reported a decrease in 2025. For those who got a raise, the average bump was 7%.

Consulting professionals earn the most by industry at $126,000 annually, just ahead of manufacturing at $125,750 and 3PL professionals at $118,750. Company size drives even bigger differences, with professionals at companies topping $2.5 billion in revenue averaging $155,200 a year compared to $107,800 at companies under $50 million in revenue.

Closing the Gender Gap

The profession leans heavily on experience, with 42% of respondents between 55 and 64 and another 17% over 65. Just 3% are under 35, which says something about the pipeline coming into the field. Earnings follow experience closely: professionals between 55 and 64 average $133,215 a year, followed by the 45-to-54 group at $129,990 and the 35-to-44 group at $120,880. Those over 65 average $113,570, and professionals under 35 average $74,875.

The gender gap persists, though both numbers moved in the same direction this year. Men make up 81% of respondents and report an average salary of $130,890, while women account for 19% and average $119,680. Both figures dipped slightly from 2025, when men averaged $133,400 and women averaged $120,250, and the gap between them hasn't closed.

“The gender inequality still stands out, and that's unfortunate because it's been an ongoing challenge, not just in supply chain and logistics, but across industry in general,” says Fleming. “Hopefully we start making real strides in closing that gap.

The role keeps expanding

Respondents span a wide range of titles, with logistics manager/director leading at 17%, followed by VP/general manager at 11% and supply chain manager/director, operations manager/director and engineering manager/engineer each at 8%.

Title and seniority shape compensation significantly: VP/general managers top the list at $215,650 this year, up from $208,300 in 2025, while transportation directors and managers come in at $148,255 and corporate/divisional management at $147,700. Warehouse managers and supervisors average $86,200 and purchasing or procurement directors and managers earn $106,700. 

The responsibilities keep piling up for supply chain and logistics professionals, 76% of whom report that the number of functions they perform has increased over the last two to three years (up from 67% last year). Just 2% say their workload has shrunk.

Fleming says ISM is tracking similar trends across most professions right now. “Within logistics and supply management, people are having to take on more,” he adds. “Everybody’s feeling it, whether it's operations, sales or finance.”

More time put in = bigger salary

Roughly one-third (34%) of those surveyed say that they've held their current position for more than 10 years, while 21% have been in their current position for six to ten years, and 27% have been employed in the same position for three to five years. Thirteen percent say they've only been in their position one to two years, and 5% have been in their position less than one year.

Those who have held their position for three to five years earn the highest salary, an average of $134,895, while those who have been in their current position for more than ten years earn $127,675 on average. Those who have been in their position six to ten years earn an average salary of $122,280, while those who have only been in their current position one to two years earn an average of $112,790. Professionals in their position for less than a year earn $95,150 on average. 

Many respondents have been employed by more than one company during their careers, with 22% working for three different employers and 19% for either two or somewhere between five and nine different companies. Eighteen percent have stayed with the same employer for their entire career, and 6% have been with 10 or more organizations.

Respondents who fall into the “five to nine total employers” category earn the most at an average of $152,380 per year, followed by those with four employers earning $123,460, and those with three employers taking home $120,075. Respondents who have worked for the same employer during their careers make $105,525 on average. This shows that changing companies can pay off—sometimes literally.

They love their jobs

Despite the longer hours and broader job descriptions, supply chain and logistics professionals are largely happy with where they are. Forty percent say they're content in their current role, and just 9% are actively exploring their options. More telling, 47% say they're very satisfied with their career and another 46% say they're somewhat satisfied. Only 7% have any real complaints about their jobs.

Fleming says the profession's upward trajectory has a lot to do with that satisfaction. Twenty years ago, logistics and supply management were seen as career endpoints with little room to grow. That's changed. “Today, these professionals are enabling revenue and being thought of as business leaders, not just a logistics manager or a supply manager,” he says. “They can get into the C-suite with the skill sets they have, and that's a good place to bee.”

Never stop learning

On the education front, a bachelor's degree remains the most common credential at 39%, but MBA holders top the earnings chart at $173,000 a year, ahead of those with a four-year degree at $128,500. Networking leads the list of career-building moves at 61%, up from 54% last year, followed by business coursework, industry association membership and professional certifications, each at 27%.

For many, the learning doesn't stop at the degree, with 38% planning to enroll in continuing education in the next 12 months. Fleming says the real currency right now is digital fluency. “Being able to interact with the digital environment is far more valuable today than it was just five years ago,” he says. “Everything we're dealing with is digitally connected, from the supplier all the way to the customer, and the workforce that's picking up that digital education is proving very valuable.”

They’re growing alongside America’s $1 trillion trucking network, investing in people, equipment and technology while maintaining the service levels that shippers demand. Many boast on-time performance rates approaching 99%—numbers they’ll proudly document if you ask.

They’re the 50 largest and most influential trucking companies in the country: 25 operating in the highly fragmented, roughly $400 billion truckload sector, and 25 competing in the smaller but equally vital $52 billion less-than-truckload (LTL) market.

They’re the Logistics Management Top 50. And as they’ve done for the past 23 years, our research partners SJ Consulting and Ship Matrix rank these carriers by size—but the list reflects far more than revenue alone. It highlights the strategies, operational excellence and leadership that allow these companies to thrive in one of the most competitive industries in the U.S. economy.

Which raises the central question: What really makes a great trucking company? Is it long-term strategy? Vision? Day-to-day execution? Or the culture that drives employees to buy into that vision and deliver for customers every day?

What sets them apart?

We asked several top executives to candidly discuss what makes a great trucking company truly great. Their answers touched on everything from long-term vision to the day-to-day operational execution required to deliver on that vision.

“Strategy is what drives everything we do,” says Pitt Ohio president Chuck Hammel. “Our strategy is where we develop and nurture our culture and our service offerings. Our culture is the foundation of who we are as a company—and why we have succeeded for so long.”

“We firmly believe our culture has been—and continues to be—the single greatest contributor to our company’s performance and long-term success,” says Kent Williams, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Averitt Express, which operates a diversified trucking network. “It’s truly our secret sauce and is central to how we operate every day.”

Williams notes that 22% of Averitt’s employees, across all job classifications, have been with the company for more than 20 years. “We believe that speaks directly to the strength of our culture and the value we place on our people,” he adds.

Experienced trucking executives, well aware that the industry is a derived-demand business, have been waiting the better part of three years for freight demand to rebound. In 2026, they’re still waiting.

Asked to describe the overall domestic economy in 2026, Hammel summed it up in a single word: “Uncertainty.” Then, after a pause, he added: “Well, when has anything ever been certain in this industry?”

Averitt’s Williams says the greatest short-term threat remains the broader economic environment, which has only recently begun to show modest signs of improvement. Longer term, he points to disruptive forces such as autonomous vehicles, emerging technologies and shifting market dynamics.

“We address these uncertainties by relying on the strength of our people and maintaining an innovative, flexible mindset,” Williams says. “By staying open to change and acting quickly when conditions shift, we’re able to adapt and continue delivering value to our customers.”

Next, we take our annual deeper dive into how some of the leading carriers in the LM Top 50 are navigating today’s market challenges.

Leading on pricing

Trucking rates have been in the doldrums for the past three years. After the pandemic, there was a modest rebound in 2022, but the long-awaited surge in rates has yet to materialize—despite scores of bankruptcies among small and midsize fleets.

Veteran trucking executives say they’ve seen this cycle before.

“The introduction of real price competition forever changed our industry and the makeup of the carriers,” says Peter Latta, chairman and CEO of A. Duie Pyle, one of the Northeast’s most prominent LTL carriers.

“If all you look at is the number on the freight bill, we may appear a little more expensive,” says Greg Plemmons, executive vice president and COO of Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), the nation’s second-largest LTL company. “But factor in our on-time service, lack of claims for damage and all the other costs involved, and our customers feel like they’re getting great value from us—and they are.”

“There’s more price discipline,” says Geoff Muessig, chief marketing officer at Pitt Ohio, another strong LTL carrier in the Northeast. Asked why, he adds: “It’s not because trucking executives are any smarter. It’s because all our customers use the same costing models.”

While decades of trucking rate wars have taken their financial toll, Pyle’s Latta says the survivors have learned the hard way that competing solely on price is rarely a winning strategy.

“Today, most of the remaining players appear financially sound as the market has largely reached equilibrium,” he says Latta. “But I hope the surviving carriers have vicariously learned the lessons—and the consequences—of irrational and undisciplined pricing.”

Averitt’s operations include roughly 3,500 trailers and span high-volume regional LTL service as well as dedicated truckload operations. Executives say that diversified structure helps retain customers as their transportation needs evolve.

“Our diversification across five service lines is a critical driver of our performance,” adds Averitt’s Williams. “This structure allows us to deliver best-in-class service and tailored solutions across multiple segments while remaining flexible and resilient in a changing market.”

The ODFL factor

No single carrier dominates its space quite the way Old Dominion Freight Line does. A perennial leader in LM’s Top 50 rankings, ODFL’s position is no accident. The carrier plans aggressively for future demand—looking not only at freight levels this summer, but at where the market could be heading by 2030.

Adam Satterfield, ODFL’s executive vice president, assistant secretary and CFO, said recently on an earnings call that the company’s internal target is “generally to have 20% to 25% excess capacity.” ODFL did not open any new service centers last year.

Satterfield acknowledged that while capacity may not be top of mind for many carriers right now, that can change quickly.

“While capacity isn’t maybe on everybody’s mind right now, it hasn’t been that long ago when we’ve seen periods where the environment does turn—and when it turns, it generally turns very quickly in our industry,” he said.

And when that happens, ODFL expects customers’ focus to shift quickly back to which carriers have available capacity—not only in service centers, but also in labor, equipment and the ability to respond to rising demand.

“That’s a big part of our value proposition and why we feel like we’re better positioned than anyone to respond when the market eventually turns positive,” Satterfield adds.

ODFL exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter of 2025, the most recent full quarter available, and struck a generally bullish tone about demand heading into 2026. January trends reflected below-average seasonality, due in part to weather. Analysts expect ODFL’s first six months to fall slightly below earlier projections.

ODFL’s fourth-quarter operating ratio (OR) came in at 86.7, slightly above management’s conservative estimate. Fourth-quarter tonnage declined 10.7%, but remained within normal seasonal patterns. January revenue per day fell 6.8%, with tonnage down 9.6% per day—suggesting another soft start to 2026.

Of course, rival LTL carriers are hardly conceding any ground to ODFL.

“I believe our operations group is second to none,” says Pitt Ohio’s Hammel. “We run, on average, more than 500 bills through each terminal with an on-time next-day service record of over 97%. I think our consistent service through the years sets us apart in the industry.”

Looking ahead with AI

Artificial intelligence means different things to different people across industries.

For a technology giant like Amazon, AI investment is measured in the hundreds of billions. The company recently said it plans nearly a 60% increase in AI spending—roughly $200 billion this year compared with $128 billion last year—far above Wall Street projections.

For trucking companies, those kinds of investments are simply not realistic. Most industry executives instead focus on the practical ways AI might gradually reshape operations.

“Near term, the biggest challenge I see is how to integrate AI not only into our processes, but also to answer the broader question of how it will change the way we do business,” says Pitt Ohio's Hammel. “The LTL industry still relies heavily on paper and phone calls. Our challenge is figuring out how to eliminate both while continuing to deliver exceptional customer service.”

Technology innovation has long been a focus at Pitt Ohio. The carrier was one of the first major trucking companies to compile detailed customer-by-customer data on every piece of freight moving through its network.

Unlike many carriers, Pitt Ohio uses that data to build precise pricing models based on the actual cost of moving freight through its network. The company moved away from traditional general rate increases (GRIs) years ago, instead relying on customer-specific data to justify individual rate adjustments that cover costs while preserving modest profit margins.

Other large LTL and truckload carriers have gradually followed similar approaches, although GRIs remain common across the industry.

“We’ve been innovators in this industry since our early days,” adds Hammel. “It’s simply part of our DNA.”

However, establishing a structured and strategic approach to managing inbound ocean shipments can yield significant benefits in cost control, service performance, and inventory management. In fact, a well-designed ocean transportation strategy provides the framework to shift from reactive to proactive logistics planning. Now, let’s consider some of the key factors.

1. Volume projections

The very first agenda item is to forecast shipping volumes. Interestingly, knowing exactly where suppliers’ shipping locations are located is not always apparent to companies.

However, it’s necessary to identify origin and destination locations, the total number of twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and any shipment seasonality. This information is vital when sharing projections with carriers to negotiate volume commitments and rates.

2. Contracting vs. spot market strategy

Some companies ship exclusively via the spot market, meaning these rates are determined by the supply and demand for sailing slots at a specific time. While this strategy might work for companies that ship a limited number of ocean containers, it’s generally not effective for companies that move higher volumes of shipments and TEUs.

Spot ocean container rates can fluctuate significantly. For example, when companies attempted to beat tariff implementations applied to imports, spot container rates skyrocketed. However, once the tariffs were implemented, spot rates dropped drastically. Fixed annual contracts provide more stable rates and are less sensitive to market swings, allowing for more accurate management of an ocean transportation budget.

3. Ocean carrier selection and diversification

Ocean carriers manage their own operations, including vessel scheduling, maintenance, and cargo handling. It’s essential to conduct thorough research to establish clear criteria for carrier selection.

Key factors to evaluate include cost, transit time, service reliability, geographic coverage, and port accessibility. To mitigate risk and ensure service continuity, companies should avoid over-reliance on a single carrier and instead pursue a diversified carrier strategy.

4. Freight forwarder and NVOCC relationships

Freight forwarders act as intermediaries, coordinating multiple aspects of the international shipping process on behalf of the shipper. Their services typically include arranging transportation, preparing documentation, and providing additional support such as customs brokerage.

When evaluating freight forwarders, it’s critical to consider more than just cost—factors such as customer service quality, shipment visibility tools, and issue resolution capabilities are equally important.

Non-Vessel Operating Common Carriers (NVOCCs) function similarly to ocean carriers, despite not owning or operating their own vessels. They issue their own bills of lading and assume responsibility for managing shipments from origin to destination. As with freight forwarders, selecting the right NVOCC requires evaluating service reliability, global coverage, and their ability to manage logistics across complex trade lanes.

5. Lane and port strategy

Once supplier and customer locations have been defined and projected shipment volumes are estimated, it becomes essential to optimize origin and destination ports to balance both cost and service. Developing a port strategy should include primary and alternate ports to account for potential disruptions such as congestion, labor disputes, or seasonal delays.

Port decisions must align closely with inventory management and purchasing strategies. For instance, a shipment originating in Asia may be routed through West Coast ports, followed by inland transportation via rail or drayage to the final destination.

Alternatively, the same shipment could be routed through East Coast ports. While this typically involves longer transit times, it may offer cost or service advantages depending on market conditions and the location of the final delivery point. Route selection should consider transit time, rate variability, and network efficiency to ensure optimal supply chain performance.

6. Performance metrics and KPIs

As previously noted, a freight forwarder that provides visibility into shipments is important. Companies should use the technology available to develop meaningful key performance indicators (KPIs).

Monitoring shipment service levels and carrier performance is vital to holding partners accountable. Common KPIs include on-time delivery, dwell time, container utilization, cost per unit, and container detention and demurrage charges.

7. Risk management and contingency planning

Proactive risk management is essential to maintaining a resilient supply chain. Disruptions such as labor strikes, severe weather, geopolitical instability, or unexpected market shifts can significantly impact ocean transportation.

To mitigate these risks, organizations should develop comprehensive contingency plans that include alternative ports of entry, backup carriers, and flexible routing options. In some cases, it may be necessary to expedite shipments or delay them strategically to ensure alignment with inventory and purchasing strategies.

A well-prepared contingency plan should account for a wide range of potential disruptions—including geopolitical events, pandemics, carrier alliance shifts, and port closures. Having predefined protocols in place allows for faster decision-making and minimizes the impact of unforeseen events on cost, service, and overall supply chain performance

Strategy is now essential

Developing and implementing a structured ocean freight strategy enables organizations to transition from a reactive approach to a proactive, strategic model for managing international logistics.

This shift enhances financial control, improves service reliability, and strengthens resilience against disruptions. In today’s increasingly complex and dynamic global trade environment, a well-executed ocean transportation strategy is essential for achieving long-term supply chain efficiency and customer satisfaction.

Tom Schaefges is a senior project manager with St. Onge Company and has more than 25 years of experience in supply chain and logistics across both corporate and consulting roles. His industry experience includes work in food service, retail, heavy manufacturing, transportation, food production, and third-party logistics. He can be reached at tschaefges@stonge.com

Nevertheless, market analysts see the air cargo market stabilizing, but not growing at the same pace as previous years. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), highlights this resilience against the backdrop of protectionist trade policies and tariff volatility.

“As trade flows adapt to a protectionist U.S. tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments,” says Walsh. “Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the U.S. found new markets.”

Data takes off

IATA projects global air cargo volumes to increase by 2.4% year-over-year, reaching approximately 71.6 million tonnes in 2026. Cargo revenues are projected to rise 2.1% to $158 billion, up from $155 billion in 2025.

IATA figures for year-on-year in October 2025 indicate that the Asia-North America trade lane contracted for the sixth month in a row, while there was double-digit or near double-digit growth within Asia, between the Middle East and Europe, and between Europe and Asia.

“China-Europe is the significant change,” says Brendan Sullivan, IATA’s head of cargo prior to the organization’s World Cargo Symposium. “China is incredibly important, especially to e-commerce. Previously, many goods were going to the United States or via maritime. This is a new opportunity, but carriers must manage the risk.”

WorldACD Market Data statistics show that global air cargo demand and prices had broadly stabilized in the third full week of 2026 after completing their recovery from the annual end-of-year slump, ahead of a brief expected further uplift in demand from Asia Pacific origins prior to the Lunar New Year period in the second half of February.

The Middle East and South Asia (MESA) is one region of origin recording significant year-on-year tonnage growth since last July. That continued into 2026, reports WorldACD, including in week 4, in which ex-MESA tonnages were up by +10%, year-on-year, including a +11% rise to the U.S. and +7% increase to European markets.

Despite higher tariffs imposed on India by the U.S. in the second half of 2025, the biggest origin market within that region, India, recorded strong year-on-year growth in tonnages to the U.S. in the final two months of 2025. And that growth continued into January, including a +15% year-on-year increase in week 4, says WorldACD.

Asia-Pacific carriers are experiencing strong growth in 2025-2026, with cargo demand up 5.6% driven by e-commerce and regional manufacturing. For example, Cathay Pacific Cargo carried 10% more cargo in November 2025, according to the latest figures available. Available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs) increased by 7% in the first 11 months of 2025—the total tonnage increased by 10% compared with the same period of 2024.

“Our cargo business continued to record month-on-month and year-on-year growth in November, driven by solid exports from our home market and the Chinese Mainland, alongside growth across our Southeast Asia and South Asia, Middle East and Africa routes Cathay,” says Cathay Pacific’s chief customer and commercial officer Lavinia Lau. She added how Cathay Cargo saw a robust air cargo peak that continued into December.

Capacity challenges, cargo demand

Carriers are addressing the demand by using underutilized fleet from the China-U.S. trade lane. But capacity is a challenge. IATA points out how freighter fleet utilization is almost at an all-time high, and supply chain issues, caused by mounting regulatory and geopolitical pressures, mean freight conversions have slowed.

In addition, Boeing and Airbus, affected by engine shortages, are slow to deliver new freighters. Airbus has pushed delivery of its A350F from 2025 to the second half of 2027. Delivery of Boeing’s 777-8F is pushed to 2028 and the program is facing continued setbacks.

Going forward, air cargo volumes are also expected to be affected by shrinking consumer buying power.

Industry analyst Xeneta finds that global air cargo demand finished a tumultuous 2025 on a high with volumes up +6% year-on-year in December, but warns that flattening e-commerce shipments ex-China will create concern for airlines and forwarders reliant on consumers’ online buying sprees. A more regulated landscape being led by the U.S. and Europe, is contributing to pressure on e-commerce.

Better-than-expected volumes over the last quarter of the year helped air cargo demand record +4% growth in chargeable weight year-on-year for 2025, reflecting many shippers’ willingness to shift away from other modes to the speed and reliability of air cargo during times of disruption and economic uncertainty.

“Last year had something for everyone,” says Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw, “with service providers benefitting from higher volumes than expected earlier in the year, and shippers gaining from lower rates in the second half of the year.”

Having predicted up to +4% market demand growth for 2025, Xeneta sees a more cautious outlook for 2026, forecasting, like IATA, a slightly more modest +2-3% rise in volumes this year. Among key 2026 air cargo market trends are rate softening caused by capacity being projected to exceed demand. “This will lead to a downward pressure on airfreight spot rates,” says, van de Wouw.

IATA’s December Global Outlook reports that air cargo demand will continue to grow, although at a slower pace than in 2025, reflecting the softening of global trade.

“While trade growth may slow in 2026, air cargo is well-positioned to remain robust, benefiting from artificial intelligence, hardware-driven investment, growing demand for high-value, time-sensitive goods, and the structural shift toward e-commerce,” the report detailed. However, the association warns that protectionist trade policies are a concern to more rapid development.

IATA finds that total industry revenue is expected to reach $158 billion. Although yields are expected to see a slight decrease (-0.5$ compared to 2025), they remain roughly 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

IATA stresses that strong demand is expected to continue despite broader slowdowns in global trade. The associations also points to how air cargo carriers are adjusting to changing trade routes and the increased need for flexibility in response to shifting global trade patterns prompted by new and continuing changing tariff policies by the Trump Administration.