A permanent record for accountable predictions. 2011-03-12T00:38:47Z 2011-03-12T00:38:47Z

Shamir Karkal has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By Dec 31, 2013 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Credits (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will meet or exceed $16 billion in a three month period."

2011-03-12T00:38:47Z 2011-02-27T02:42:56Z 2011-02-27T02:42:56Z

Danny Hillis has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ignite it.”"

2011-02-27T02:42:56Z 2011-02-16T00:39:21Z 2011-02-16T00:39:21Z

Jeremy Keith has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years."

2011-02-16T00:39:21Z 2011-01-21T16:55:20Z 2011-01-21T16:55:20Z

John Feminella has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day."

2011-01-21T16:55:20Z 2011-01-18T05:02:45Z 2011-01-18T05:02:45Z

Alex M has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)"

2011-01-18T05:02:45Z 2010-12-11T12:41:42Z 2010-12-11T12:41:42Z

Edwin J. Adlerman has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Within twenty years, evidence of human-induced anthropogenic global warming and its deleterious effects will be unequivocal."

2010-12-11T12:41:42Z 2010-11-16T20:43:34Z 2010-11-16T20:43:34Z

Stewart Brand has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015."

2010-11-16T20:43:34Z 2010-11-03T16:39:15Z 2010-11-03T16:39:15Z

mike j. lawrence has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from which the universe is composed."

2010-11-03T16:39:15Z 2010-10-21T05:03:43Z 2010-10-21T05:03:43Z

Neal Mueller has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "A third party candidate will be elected President of the United States."

2010-10-21T05:03:43Z 2010-08-26T18:57:18Z 2010-08-26T18:57:18Z

Danny Hillis has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ignite it."

2010-08-26T18:57:18Z 2010-02-04T17:00:00Z 2010-02-04T17:00:00Z

The Long Now Foundation has judged a Long Bet between Jim Griffin and Gordon Bell: "A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers will offer 10,000 titles to 5 million subscribers by 2010."

2010-02-04T17:00:00Z 2010-02-02T23:19:41Z 2010-02-02T23:19:41Z

steve hockenyos has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Technocrat will become a political party by 2020."

2010-02-02T23:19:41Z 2009-10-30T03:01:31Z 2009-10-30T03:01:31Z

Pamela C. Ronald has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture"

2009-10-30T03:01:31Z 2009-10-26T13:56:57Z 2009-10-26T13:56:57Z

James P. Rutt has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism."

2009-10-26T13:56:57Z 2009-08-31T00:36:09Z 2009-08-31T00:36:09Z

Stewart Brand has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035."

2009-08-31T00:36:09Z 2009-08-29T16:10:30Z 2009-08-29T16:10:30Z

Stewart Brand has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the end of 2011 it will be clear that the world financial crisis of 2009 had no effect on the rate of urbanization in the developing world, but it led to growth of the informal economy in those countries and to increases in global crime."

2009-08-29T16:10:30Z 2009-07-07T10:42:50Z 2009-07-07T10:42:50Z

Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China."

2009-07-07T10:42:50Z 2009-06-16T23:00:13Z 2009-06-16T23:00:13Z

Aaron H has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "California state government will dissolve in default."

2009-06-16T23:00:13Z 2009-05-24T03:54:23Z 2009-05-24T03:54:23Z

Jason E. Cafer has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow others to virtually enter their homes, to pass beyond the public Street View by entering a code serving as a key to unlock their front door."

2009-05-24T03:54:23Z 2009-05-08T15:48:47Z 2009-05-08T15:48:47Z

Michael S. Sherrod has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow."

2009-05-08T15:48:47Z 2009-05-03T22:33:24Z 2009-05-03T22:33:24Z

Eric Blankenburg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers."

2009-05-03T22:33:24Z 2009-03-29T22:57:41Z 2009-03-29T22:57:41Z

Richard A. Ryals has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "If the LHC does not find the Higgs Boson or other "new physics", then Einstein's "last twenty years" will eventually be fully vindicated, including the most natural cosmological extension of general relativity to a finite, deterministic universe."

2009-03-29T22:57:41Z 2009-03-14T18:45:05Z 2009-03-14T18:45:05Z

Josh Kopelman has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out."

2009-03-14T18:45:05Z 2009-02-27T14:17:06Z 2009-02-27T14:17:06Z

Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height."

2009-02-27T14:17:06Z 2008-12-08T14:52:17Z 2008-12-08T14:52:17Z

Michael H. Martin-Smith has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2100, a small self-sustainable population will be living off this planet"

2008-12-08T14:52:17Z 2008-11-21T19:57:37Z 2008-11-21T19:57:37Z

Lux Veritas has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th - 31st 2008; US print edition, p.82) and at http://www.5bases.com."

2008-11-21T19:57:37Z 2008-11-12T18:42:53Z 2008-11-12T18:42:53Z

Saul Kato has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads."

2008-11-12T18:42:53Z 2008-11-07T06:16:53Z 2008-11-07T06:16:53Z

Tim Wiebe has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar."

2008-11-07T06:16:53Z 2008-11-01T14:24:18Z 2008-11-01T14:24:18Z

David C. Douglas has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "2007 will be the historical peak year for US energy-related CO2 emissions."

2008-11-01T14:24:18Z 2008-10-22T15:16:01Z 2008-10-22T15:16:01Z

Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model."

2008-10-22T15:16:01Z 2008-10-22T15:07:21Z 2008-10-22T15:07:21Z

Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists."

2008-10-22T15:07:21Z 2008-10-22T13:36:58Z 2008-10-22T13:36:58Z

Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon."

2008-10-22T13:36:58Z 2008-10-22T13:20:34Z 2008-10-22T13:20:34Z

Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics."

2008-10-22T13:20:34Z 2008-10-22T12:30:06Z 2008-10-22T12:30:06Z

Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists."

2008-10-22T12:30:06Z 2008-10-16T18:24:37Z 2008-10-16T18:24:37Z

Charles G. Seife has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world."

2008-10-16T18:24:37Z 2008-10-06T13:32:24Z 2008-10-06T13:32:24Z

Rogier M. Sluimers has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe."

2008-10-06T13:32:24Z 2008-10-02T15:02:13Z 2008-10-02T15:02:13Z

William P. Sheridan has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100."

2008-10-02T15:02:13Z 2008-08-25T17:51:04Z 2008-08-25T17:51:04Z

Florian Kunze has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games."

2008-08-25T17:51:04Z 2008-08-14T14:07:27Z 2008-08-14T14:07:27Z

Jonathan M. Rothberg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced."

2008-08-14T14:07:27Z 2008-08-14T13:12:38Z 2008-08-14T13:12:38Z

Jonathan M. Rothberg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Computers will become intelligent within my "lifetime" (or 50 years which ever is longer)"

2008-08-14T13:12:38Z 2008-08-12T23:25:57Z 2008-08-12T23:25:57Z

Tibor Pacher and Paul A. Gilster have agreed to a new Long Bet: "The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public."

2008-08-12T23:25:57Z 2008-08-02T00:03:01Z 2008-08-02T00:03:01Z

Thomas R. Leavens and Nils Gilman have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as a team member/player."

2008-08-02T00:03:01Z 2008-07-31T16:34:27Z 2008-07-31T16:34:27Z

Joe Keane and Nick Damiano have agreed to a new Long Bet: "Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth."

2008-07-31T16:34:27Z 2008-07-09T00:54:52Z 2008-07-09T00:54:52Z

Jack Scherer has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Hurricanes in Florida will be less in 2005-2015, than the average of the preceding three decades"

2008-07-09T00:54:52Z 2008-06-22T06:56:29Z 2008-06-22T06:56:29Z

Online Casino Reports has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "There will be a casino on the moon by 2040."

2008-06-22T06:56:29Z 2008-06-14T05:38:15Z 2008-06-14T05:38:15Z

Wayne B. Hayes has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called "Hello, world!", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte."

2008-06-14T05:38:15Z 2008-06-09T20:39:17Z 2008-06-09T20:39:17Z

Christoph M. Stahl has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany."

2008-06-09T20:39:17Z 2008-06-09T06:35:16Z 2008-06-09T06:35:16Z

Warren Buffett and Protege Partners, LLC have agreed to a new Long Bet: "Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses."

2008-06-09T06:35:16Z 2008-06-06T23:46:51Z 2008-06-06T23:46:51Z

Franklin G. Forbin and Jane Walter have agreed to a new Long Bet: "In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions."

2008-06-06T23:46:51Z 2008-06-02T20:00:44Z 2008-06-02T20:00:44Z

Engelman Laura has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The hiding function works."

2008-06-02T20:00:44Z 2008-05-15T03:55:58Z 2008-05-15T03:55:58Z

Martin G. Tobias has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids."

2008-05-15T03:55:58Z 2008-05-12T18:00:59Z 2008-05-12T18:00:59Z

Jason W. Galbraith and Sam Stigler have agreed to a new Long Bet: "Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees."

2008-05-12T18:00:59Z 2008-05-02T22:45:50Z 2008-05-02T22:45:50Z

Predictify Crowd has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035."

2008-05-02T22:45:50Z 2008-04-15T18:25:26Z 2008-04-15T18:25:26Z

Allen Tough and H. Paul Shuch have agreed to a new Long Bet: "Evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence within the solar system will be confirmed before evidence from several light-years away."

2008-04-15T18:25:26Z 2008-03-28T21:46:53Z 2008-03-28T21:46:53Z

Jason W. Galbraith has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary."

2008-03-28T21:46:53Z 2008-03-20T21:26:40Z 2008-03-20T21:26:40Z

Barry J. Benjamin has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections."

2008-03-20T21:26:40Z 2008-03-15T21:47:24Z 2008-03-15T21:47:24Z

Adrian Bowyer has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020."

2008-03-15T21:47:24Z 2008-03-07T23:47:18Z 2008-03-07T23:47:18Z

Joerg W. Schwieder has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals."

2008-03-07T23:47:18Z 2008-02-28T15:28:59Z 2008-02-28T15:28:59Z

Matthias Brust-Braun has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive for a very long time."

2008-02-28T15:28:59Z 2008-02-22T04:58:19Z 2008-02-22T04:58:19Z

R. L. has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Immortal mice by 2015"

2008-02-22T04:58:19Z 2008-02-01T17:00:00Z 2008-02-01T17:00:00Z

The Long Now Foundation has judged a Long Bet between Dave Winer and Martin Nisenholtz: "In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the <i>New York Times'</i> Web site."

2008-02-01T17:00:00Z 2007-12-22T12:29:37Z 2007-12-22T12:29:37Z

S. G. RAJEEV has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and compositeness of quarks and gluons but NOT additional Higgs bosons, families of particles or neutrino masses. Theoretical advances in understanding the hierarchy problem are not `substantial' experimental departures in this sense, but can lead to profound new understanding."

2007-12-22T12:29:37Z 2007-12-04T17:07:54Z 2007-12-04T17:07:54Z

Dan Gregerson has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Science believes consciousness descends from matter; religion believes matter descends from consciousness. Both propositions will be discovered to false within 50 years."

2007-12-04T17:07:54Z 2007-09-19T18:37:57Z 2007-09-19T18:37:57Z

Sean Park has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics &amp; Statistics Administration as developed by the <br /> Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy Advisory Committee (www.innovationmetric.gov) but am open to alternative suggestions."

2007-09-19T18:37:57Z 2007-09-14T17:00:00Z 2007-09-14T17:00:00Z

The Long Now Foundation has judged a Long Bet between Steven B. Kurtz and Patrick C. Burns: "The annual average cost between 2003 and Dec 31 2005 of the total retail price (commercial and residential) per Kilowatthour of electricity in the United States will rise as calculated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy in chained (inflation-adjusted) U.S. dollars."

2007-09-14T17:00:00Z 2007-07-25T02:51:36Z 2007-07-25T02:51:36Z

Joerg W. Schwieder has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050."

2007-07-25T02:51:36Z 2007-05-15T14:51:57Z 2007-05-15T14:51:57Z

Séamus P. Dunne has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and "Western World""

2007-05-15T14:51:57Z 2007-05-06T16:36:04Z 2007-05-06T16:36:04Z

Sarah E has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, products of artistic activity will no longer been treated as autonomous, transcendent, intrinsically value-laden objects and artists will recognize themselves as operating within social, political, economic, and cultural frameworks which directly influence the conferred value of their artistic creations."

2007-05-06T16:36:04Z 2007-03-03T15:28:23Z 2007-03-03T15:28:23Z

Zeus Jones has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the "Second" or "New Renaissance.""

2007-03-03T15:28:23Z 2007-02-21T16:22:55Z 2007-02-21T16:22:55Z

Robert C. Hiemstra has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Long Bets <br /> RCH #2: By 2030<br /> <br /> The Prediction:<br /> The great contest of the 21st century – the individual vs. society and the state – will progress much past my 2020 Long Bets Prediction of effective computerized individual citizen profiling, with the full maturation of the nascent, but extremely promising studies of brain, mind and personality as revealed by the many different brain scanning devices now being intensively studied and developed. <br /> These scans - and their related psychologic, psychiatric, and sociologic fields interpreting them and giving them function – will gain great utility as the ultimate lie detectors. But they will go much beyond the simple lie detector in that they will reveal the workings of the mind in such a way that the mind will be made malleable and reshapable in manners currently thought inconceivable (see my Long Bets Prediction #3)."

2007-02-21T16:22:55Z 2007-02-14T14:21:22Z 2007-02-14T14:21:22Z

Russell A. Mitchell has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east."

2007-02-14T14:21:22Z 2007-01-31T19:25:48Z 2007-01-31T19:25:48Z

Myles A. Kellam has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals."

2007-01-31T19:25:48Z 2007-01-30T20:53:23Z 2007-01-30T20:53:23Z

JOSE LUIS L. SEGOVIA has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people."

2007-01-30T20:53:23Z 2007-01-29T20:44:19Z 2007-01-29T20:44:19Z

John Tierney has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100."

2007-01-29T20:44:19Z 2007-01-27T21:36:18Z 2007-01-27T21:36:18Z

Imre Bondar has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "THE world’s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319."

2007-01-27T21:36:18Z 2006-11-23T18:28:04Z 2006-11-23T18:28:04Z

Adam Dingle has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system."

2006-11-23T18:28:04Z 2006-10-13T17:15:51Z 2006-10-13T17:15:51Z

Glenn I. Fleishman has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2010, the use of dial-up modems will represent less than 5 percent of all Internet access (represented as a percentage of all households) in the United States. As part of this prediction, I expect that at that time, dial-up service will cost significantly more than the slowest alternative, which will be substantially faster than dial-up."

2006-10-13T17:15:51Z 2006-09-29T22:02:15Z 2006-09-29T22:02:15Z

Daniel K. Simon and Glen F. Raphael have agreed to a new Long Bet: "The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005."

2006-09-29T22:02:15Z 2006-09-26T00:38:11Z 2006-09-26T00:38:11Z

brian wang has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010"

2006-09-26T00:38:11Z 2006-09-04T12:39:42Z 2006-09-04T12:39:42Z

Emre Sokullu has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth..."

2006-09-04T12:39:42Z 2006-08-16T13:53:06Z 2006-08-16T13:53:06Z

Michael Kreusch has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange."

2006-08-16T13:53:06Z 2006-08-05T15:19:42Z 2006-08-05T15:19:42Z

John T. Hoagland has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Hydrocarbon fuels will be the "fuel of choice" for personal transportation for the next 50 years"

2006-08-05T15:19:42Z 2006-07-28T04:24:14Z 2006-07-28T04:24:14Z

Baris Karadogan has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children."

2006-07-28T04:24:14Z 2006-05-30T13:40:18Z 2006-05-30T13:40:18Z

Tyrone Boyd has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012."

2006-05-30T13:40:18Z 2006-05-23T18:57:03Z 2006-05-23T18:57:03Z

Michael P. Strenski has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century."

2006-05-23T18:57:03Z 2006-04-19T12:41:57Z 2006-04-19T12:41:57Z

Mike Treder has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs."

2006-04-19T12:41:57Z 2006-04-18T02:08:12Z 2006-04-18T02:08:12Z

Susan Smith has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete"

2006-04-18T02:08:12Z 2006-04-05T00:35:17Z 2006-04-05T00:35:17Z

Elna R. Tymes has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100."

2006-04-05T00:35:17Z 2006-01-08T19:46:17Z 2006-01-08T19:46:17Z

morrison m. bonpasse has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP."

2006-01-08T19:46:17Z 2005-12-30T15:53:59Z 2005-12-30T15:53:59Z

Hugh B. Grant has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI."

2005-12-30T15:53:59Z 2005-12-18T20:34:07Z 2005-12-18T20:34:07Z

Kathleen A. Hansen has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside the scientific community."

2005-12-18T20:34:07Z 2005-11-21T17:55:00Z 2005-11-21T17:55:00Z

james w. walter has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "I predict that this year will have the greatest snowfall on record, worldwide"

2005-11-21T17:55:00Z 2005-11-21T17:51:52Z 2005-11-21T17:51:52Z

james w. walter has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, followed by falling sea levels as the glaciers increase."

2005-11-21T17:51:52Z 2005-11-17T06:33:09Z 2005-11-17T06:33:09Z

Juli Mallett has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Within the next 5 years, Google employees will become dissatisfied, and kick-start a new wave of new technology and prosperity in Silicon Valley."

2005-11-17T06:33:09Z 2005-11-16T10:25:28Z 2005-11-16T10:25:28Z

Robert Frates has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "There will be a 'commercial-free', premium internet service offering by a relatively unknown company within 10 years."

2005-11-16T10:25:28Z 2005-11-12T02:47:37Z 2005-11-12T02:47:37Z

Jeff J. Jonas has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The People's Republic of China will successfuly place a living human on the surface of Mars before any other nation."

2005-11-12T02:47:37Z 2005-10-31T01:46:54Z 2005-10-31T01:46:54Z

Daniel M. Wigger has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of US soldiers in foreign countries and the numbers of terror attacks in western countries will be lower."

2005-10-31T01:46:54Z 2005-10-27T01:36:58Z 2005-10-27T01:36:58Z

Brian A. Schmidt has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period."

2005-10-27T01:36:58Z 2005-10-26T22:56:32Z 2005-10-26T22:56:32Z

Gary G. Cassel has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2150 faster than light propulsion theory will become realized, but not implemented, either through black holes, worm holes or space time warping."

2005-10-26T22:56:32Z 2005-10-16T10:27:11Z 2005-10-16T10:27:11Z

Rudy Rouhana has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Google will face antitrust proceedings from the DOJ or a challenge to a merger or acquisition by the FTC."

2005-10-16T10:27:11Z 2005-09-25T07:41:11Z 2005-09-25T07:41:11Z

Carl K. Lumma has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "In 2009, WinFX will be the dominant API for application development on all major PC platforms."

2005-09-25T07:41:11Z 2005-07-26T23:15:51Z 2005-07-26T23:15:51Z

Carla Hein has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Within 5 years all power plants will be converted to full-spectrum laser-fired---all oil/gas/coal/nuclear power plants will be obsolete and retired."

2005-07-26T23:15:51Z 2005-06-16T12:57:49Z 2005-06-16T12:57:49Z

Rodney T. Small has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. . . It is a dream long pursued by scientists who now believe that it may be possible to create the first artificial unit of life in the next 5 to 10 years." See: http://www.deeperwants.com/cul1/homeworlds/journal/archives/002191.html <br /> <br /> My prediction is that artificial life; i.e., life from non-life, will not be created in a laboratory."

2005-06-16T12:57:49Z 2005-04-30T02:58:56Z 2005-04-30T02:58:56Z

Mark A. Bahner has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100."

2005-04-30T02:58:56Z 2005-02-05T02:29:16Z 2005-02-05T02:29:16Z

Mark A. Bahner has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Third Assessment Report (TAR).<br /> <br /> The following are my (MB) projections and the IPCC TAR projections for methane atmospheric concentrations (in ppb, worth 1 point), industrial CO2 emissions (in Gigatons as carbon, worth 1 point), CO2 atmospheric concentrations (in ppm, worth 1 point) and lower tropospheric temperature increases (in degrees Celsius relative to 1990, worth 3 points). The projections are for the years 2030, 2070, and 2100. <br /> <br /> 2030, MB: 1790, 8.8, 425, 0.36<br /> 2030, IPCC: 2060, 13.2, 438, 0.80 <br /> <br /> 2070, MB: 1825, 7.0, 527, 0.82<br /> 2070, IPCC: 2300, 16.4, 610, 2.17<br /> <br /> 2100, MB: 1840, 4.0, 558, 1.20<br /> 2100, IPCC: 2450, 16.4, 720, 3.06<br /> <br /> Lower tropospheric temperatures are as measured by satellite, in a 3-year average around the year in question (e.g. 2030 would be 2029, 2030, 20310. This bet is only open to members of the IPCC."

2005-02-05T02:29:16Z 2005-02-03T01:52:50Z 2005-02-03T01:52:50Z

Mark A. Bahner has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Science fiction author Michael Crichton has predicted the world will warm by 0.81 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. <br /> <br /> Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper ("Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming," Science Magazine, Volume 293, 20 July 2001) examined the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR).<br /> <br /> Wigley and Raper concluded that the IPCC TAR projections were for a 50/50 chance of 3.06 degrees Celsius of warming from 1990 to 2100. <br /> <br /> I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere (the atmosphere from roughly zero to 20,000 feet), as measured by satellites, will be closer to Michael Crichton's predicted value of 0.81 degrees Celsius, than the IPCC's value (via Wigley and Raper) of 3.06 degrees Celsius.<br /> <br /> In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.<br /> <br /> Measurements should be done as a 3-year average centered around the year in question (i.e. 1989, 1990 and 1991, compared to 2099, 2100 and 2101).<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> My bet is only open to members of the IPCC."

2005-02-03T01:52:50Z 2005-01-06T20:43:36Z 2005-01-06T20:43:36Z

Vinton G. Cerf has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form."

2005-01-06T20:43:36Z 2005-01-06T20:14:27Z 2005-01-06T20:14:27Z

Vinton G. Cerf has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2010 more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks."

2005-01-06T20:14:27Z 2004-12-15T21:16:31Z 2004-12-15T21:16:31Z

Terry G. Spragg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Because the Israelis and the Palestinians are fighting as much over the control of water resources as they are fighting over the control of land, waterbag technology will be given credit for being the major economic tool for implementing an interium economic Peace Agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority by the year 2007, as is described in the pages from the novel, WATER, WAR AND PEACE, that is featured on the website: www.waterbag.com."

2004-12-15T21:16:31Z 2004-12-15T20:34:35Z 2004-12-15T20:34:35Z

Terry G. Spragg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Within two years, at least two or more waterbags, connected by the world's strongest zipper into a train, carrying total of at least one and one half million gallons of fresh water, will be successfully towed from Washington State, under the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco Bay, and then south to Santa Monica Bay in Los Angeles. In five years there will be at least one hundred waterbags operating in various locations around the world, connected into trains of two waterbags or more, each train delivering an average of at least five milion gallons of water per delivery from loading points to receiving points throughout the world."

2004-12-15T20:34:35Z 2004-11-22T18:05:44Z 2004-11-22T18:05:44Z

Kevin Kelly has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "A machine capable of passing the Turing Test will be made in 2075 using only hardware that was available in 2005."

2004-11-22T18:05:44Z 2004-11-03T17:00:00Z 2004-11-03T17:00:00Z

The Long Now Foundation has judged a Long Bet between Stewart Brand and brian eno: "As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the US."

2004-11-03T17:00:00Z 2004-11-01T17:49:17Z 2004-11-01T17:49:17Z

Danny Hillis has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants."

2004-11-01T17:49:17Z 2004-11-01T17:00:00Z 2004-11-01T17:00:00Z

The Long Now Foundation has judged a Long Bet between Mike Elliot and Ted Danson: "The US men's soccer team will win the World Cup before the Red Sox win the World Series."

2004-11-01T17:00:00Z 2004-09-21T18:37:09Z 2004-09-21T18:37:09Z

Datong Assoc has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE."

2004-09-21T18:37:09Z 2004-09-21T17:29:42Z 2004-09-21T17:29:42Z

Thomas D. Quigley and Steve M. Midgley have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government."

2004-09-21T17:29:42Z 2004-09-20T02:41:01Z 2004-09-20T02:41:01Z

Michael F. Olliffe has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar panel roof tiles to generate the energy to produce, purify and filter the water."

2004-09-20T02:41:01Z 2004-09-15T20:55:36Z 2004-09-15T20:55:36Z

Brendan McAuliffe has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "You are immortal"

2004-09-15T20:55:36Z 2004-04-15T01:42:18Z 2004-04-15T01:42:18Z

Stuart Brannan has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the "banking book" be marked to market before 2024."

2004-04-15T01:42:18Z 2004-02-07T23:45:18Z 2004-02-07T23:45:18Z

Rob Schnitzer has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like."

2004-02-07T23:45:18Z 2004-01-02T01:00:42Z 2004-01-02T01:00:42Z

Jigar Shah has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S."

2004-01-02T01:00:42Z 2003-12-06T18:21:04Z 2003-12-06T18:21:04Z

Stewart Brand and brian eno have agreed to a new Long Bet: "As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the US."

2003-12-06T18:21:04Z 2003-08-08T18:19:56Z 2003-08-08T18:19:56Z

Patrick C. Burns and Steven B. Kurtz have agreed to a new Long Bet: "Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy."

2003-08-08T18:19:56Z 2003-08-08T05:30:59Z 2003-08-08T05:30:59Z

John S. Washburn has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "DNA Emulation"

2003-08-08T05:30:59Z 2003-07-25T20:54:01Z 2003-07-25T20:54:01Z

Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists."

2003-07-25T20:54:01Z 2003-06-29T03:08:00Z 2003-06-29T03:08:00Z

1 future has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015."

2003-06-29T03:08:00Z 2003-06-20T17:19:38Z 2003-06-20T17:19:38Z

Steven B. Kurtz and Patrick C. Burns have agreed to a new Long Bet: "The annual average cost between 2003 and Dec 31 2005 of the total retail price (commercial and residential) per Kilowatthour of electricity in the United States will rise as calculated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy in chained (inflation-adjusted) U.S. dollars."

2003-06-20T17:19:38Z 2003-06-13T04:05:25Z 2003-06-13T04:05:25Z

Kevin Kelly has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws."

2003-06-13T04:05:25Z 2003-05-19T03:59:49Z 2003-05-19T03:59:49Z

Bill Moore has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world."

2003-05-19T03:59:49Z 2003-04-04T21:45:32Z 2003-04-04T21:45:32Z

Peter A. Spark and Alexander King have agreed to a new Long Bet: "In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation."

2003-04-04T21:45:32Z 2003-03-27T21:08:56Z 2003-03-27T21:08:56Z

Stephen R. Waite has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies."

2003-03-27T21:08:56Z 2003-03-12T08:46:48Z 2003-03-12T08:46:48Z

Robert Thibadeau has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind."

2003-03-12T08:46:48Z 2003-03-07T20:36:39Z 2003-03-07T20:36:39Z

Thomas L. Holaday has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "As of March 7th, 2005, Osama bin Laden is dead."

2003-03-07T20:36:39Z 2003-01-06T23:24:02Z 2003-01-06T23:24:02Z

Steven B. Kurtz has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not report a decrease in the percentage of humans with persistent illnesses."

2003-01-06T23:24:02Z 2002-11-08T15:03:19Z 2002-11-08T15:03:19Z

jay c. dillon has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or "field propulsion-type" aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon."

2002-11-08T15:03:19Z 2002-10-14T17:55:30Z 2002-10-14T17:55:30Z

Judah Thornewill has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory - as described in Marshall McLuhan's "Tetrad" model in Laws of Media, Ken Wilber's Holon in Sex, Ecology Spirituality, and R Buckminster Fuller's Tetrahedral structures in Synergetics."

2002-10-14T17:55:30Z 2002-09-04T15:38:35Z 2002-09-04T15:38:35Z

Alex K. Rubin has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks."

2002-09-04T15:38:35Z 2002-08-19T22:10:58Z 2002-08-19T22:10:58Z

Christophe Cauvy has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world."

2002-08-19T22:10:58Z 2002-08-13T20:24:11Z 2002-08-13T20:24:11Z

Robert A. Freling has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels."

2002-08-13T20:24:11Z 2002-08-01T21:27:53Z 2002-08-01T21:27:53Z

freeman j. dyson and Peter A. Spark have agreed to a new Long Bet: "The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet."

2002-08-01T21:27:53Z 2002-07-02T12:23:06Z 2002-07-02T12:23:06Z

Sheldon Renan has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing."

2002-07-02T12:23:06Z 2002-06-28T14:57:48Z 2002-06-28T14:57:48Z

Diogo O. Beltran has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engines (Systems) diffused through out the Internet."

2002-06-28T14:57:48Z 2002-06-20T22:36:51Z 2002-06-20T22:36:51Z

John Horgan and Michio Kaku have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature."

2002-06-20T22:36:51Z 2002-06-04T21:22:54Z 2002-06-04T21:22:54Z

Daniel R. Porter has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics."

2002-06-04T21:22:54Z 2002-05-14T01:29:08Z 2002-05-14T01:29:08Z

Peter Schwartz and Melody K. Haller have agreed to a new Long Bet: "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."

2002-05-14T01:29:08Z 2002-05-03T15:34:16Z 2002-05-03T15:34:16Z

Jason I. Altman has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon."

2002-05-03T15:34:16Z 2002-04-17T03:36:11Z 2002-04-17T03:36:11Z

Jacob A. Walker has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015."

2002-04-17T03:36:11Z 2002-04-02T06:51:08Z 2002-04-02T06:51:08Z

Hemant Sharma has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel - at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter."

2002-04-02T06:51:08Z 2002-04-01T01:08:05Z 2002-04-01T01:08:05Z

Bob Rosenberg has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States."

2002-04-01T01:08:05Z 2002-03-27T19:20:24Z 2002-03-27T19:20:24Z

Colin R. Glassey has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction."

2002-03-27T19:20:24Z 2002-03-25T20:01:18Z 2002-03-25T20:01:18Z

Gregory W. Webster has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory."

2002-03-25T20:01:18Z 2002-03-25T09:34:29Z 2002-03-25T09:34:29Z

Mike Elliot and Ted Danson have agreed to a new Long Bet: "The US men's soccer team will win the World Cup before the Red Sox win the World Series."

2002-03-25T09:34:29Z 2002-03-25T09:34:29Z 2002-03-25T09:34:29Z

Martin Rees has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event."

2002-03-25T09:34:29Z 2002-03-25T09:34:29Z 2002-03-25T09:34:29Z

Paul Hawken has placed a prediction on the record at Long Bets: "The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system."

2002-03-25T09:34:29Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z

Mitchell Kapor and Ray Kurzweil have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test."

2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z

Dave Winer and Martin Nisenholtz have agreed to a new Long Bet: "In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the <i>New York Times'</i> Web site."

2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z

Jim Griffin and Gordon Bell have agreed to a new Long Bet: "A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers will offer 10,000 titles to 5 million subscribers by 2010."

2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z

Craig Mundie and Eric Schmidt have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes."

2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z

Esther Dyson and Bill Campbell have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By 2012, the <i>Wall Street Journal</i> and the <i>New York Times</i> will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect."

2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z

Jason Epstein and Vint Cerf have agreed to a new Long Bet: "By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks."

2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z 2002-03-25T09:34:28Z

Danny Hillis and Nathan Myhrvold have agreed to a new Long Bet: "The universe will eventually stop expanding."

2002-03-25T09:34:28Z