News

1.9% is the average return for investors in March and 5.4% since the beginning of 2026 under the management of Masters

2026-04-01T07:15:05+00:00

Markets are in panic, but investors' funds are at peace!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

1.9% for March 2026.
5.4% since the beginning of 2026.

Profits can vary by tenths of a percent between investors.
Each investor can view their account balance and all open trading positions online.

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2.1% is the average return for investors in February and 3.5% since the beginning of 2026 under the management of Masters

2026-03-02T06:52:23+00:00

Our investors always make a profit, even during global cataclysms!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

2.1% for February 2026.
3.5% from the beginning of 2026.

Profits can vary by tenths of a percent between investors.
Each investor can view their account balance and all open trading positions online.

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1.4% is the average return for investors in January and 1.4% since the beginning of 2026 under the management of Masters

2026-02-01T12:33:27+00:00

New Year and new profits for our investors!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

1.4% for January 2026.
1.4% since the beginning of 2026.

Profits can vary by tenths of a percent between investors.
Each investor can view their account balance and all open trading positions online.

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23.2% is the average return for investors in 2025 and 2.3% for December under Masters management

2026-01-04T19:31:53+00:00

Each investor whose funds are managed by the Masters received 23.2% of the profit!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

2.3% for December 2025
23.2% since the beginning of 2025.

Profits can vary by tenths of a percent between investors.
Each investor can view their account balance and open trading positions online.

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1.8% - average investor return for November and 20.9% since the beginning of 2025 under the management of Masters

2025-12-05T12:44:28+00:00

We work for you!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

1.8% for November 2025.
20.9% since the beginning of 2025.

Profits can vary by tenths of a percent for different investors.
Each investor can see their account balance and all open trading positions online.

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3.2% is the average return for investors in October and 19.1% since the beginning of 2025 under the management of Masters

2025-11-04T06:30:13+00:00

Clients' capital in stable profit!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

3.2% for October 2025.
19.1% since the beginning of 2025.

Profits can vary by tenths of a percent between investors.
Each investor can view their account balance and all open trading positions online.

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2.0% - average investor return for August and 14.5% since the beginning of 2025 under the management of Masters

2025-08-29T07:14:23+00:00

When the Masters' clients are resting, the clients' capital is growing!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

2.0% for August 2025.
14.5% since the beginning of 2025.

Profits may vary by tenths of one percent for different investors.
Each investor sees their account balance and all open trading positions online.

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Stock market corporate news, US industrial inflation, oil and cryptocurrencies, Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska

2025-08-15T05:27:57+00:00

The remaining stock news

• A jump in industrial inflation in the US initially caused a sell-off in stocks, but the stock market session was neutral. Only interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the market fell in price — from real estate to IWM.
AMZN and LLY were among the growth leaders.
Bitcoin rolled back to $119,000.
Everything is calm in the morning.

• Did you really think the mighty U.S. stock market would grind to a halt on a measly PPI release, even if it was a landslide? Despite a jump in wholesale prices, S&P 500 futures held on to gains of 0.2% in Asian trading, even as Nasdaq futures fell for a third straight day. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell 2 basis points to 4.2732%.

One consequence of the sharp rise in the PPI is that the market has lost hope for a substantial 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, traders are still pricing in a 92.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, down from a 100% chance yesterday.

• In Asia, data from the region’s two biggest economies showed Japan’s economy rebounded last quarter, keeping shelves stocked ahead of Donald Trump’s tariff deadline, while China showed renewed signs of slowdown. Hong Kong shares fell 1.2% after weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data for July, including retail sales and industrial production. But the CSI 300 large-cap index rose 0.5% as traders speculated the data could justify more stimulus. Markets in India and South Korea are closed for holidays.

The Nikkei 225 rose 1.2% after snapping a six-day winning streak on Thursday, posting its biggest one-day selloff since April 11, as Japan's GDP data showed the economy expanded 1.0% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, beating analysts' expectations and giving more cues to the Bank of Japan, which next meets on Sept. 19. The dollar weakened 0.3% against the yen to 147.64.

• A look at Alaska. In commodity markets, Brent crude fell 0.1% to $66.79 a barrel, not far from a two-month low hit on Wednesday, ahead of a meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. “The first meeting doesn’t look like a market-moving event. It’s more about setting the stage for the second meeting, which is likely to be more important,” said Mark Whelan, head of investment at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore. “If there’s a truce, you’d expect a positive reaction from the euro and a weaker dollar; if there’s no truce, you’d expect the opposite.”

• Global container shipping prices fell for a ninth week in a row, with the Drewry Composite Index down 34% to $2,350 per 40-foot container.
Rates fell the most last week on the Shanghai-New York route.

• Indian state-owned Bharat Petroleum has signed a five-month contract for 10 million barrels of US crude with European trader Glencore.
That's 1 VLCC per month of WTI.

• Citadel's Rubner points out that the market could repeat the 2010 money market fund spillover.
Back then, a decline in yields led to a 27% decline in funds and a massive flow of money into equities.
He estimates that even the current 10% rebalancing (~$700 billion) could significantly fuel the broader market, particularly dividend stocks and high-quality credit./ That's a fantasy for now, since U.S. Treasury yields fell to near zero back then.

• 96% of S&P SmallCap 600 companies rose on Tuesday, and 90% on Wednesday.
Small Cap is on track for its best 2-day performance since November on a locally positive NFIB SBET report.

• Foxconn made more revenue from servers than from iPhones for the first time — FT.
Cloud and networking devices accounted for 41% of revenue versus 35% for consumer electronics.
Foxconn is the world's largest contract electronics maker and supplies components to Nvidia, Apple and others.

• Nvidia (NVDA) said its next generation of AI chips after the current Blackwell generation, called "Rubin GPUs," are on track.

• Cisco (CSCO): Targets $59-60B in FY26 revenue on demand for AI infrastructure.
Record bookings from webscale customers — $800+M in Q4 and $2+B in FY25. Partnerships (including NVDA) support growth.

• Enterprise Products Partners (EPD): Repairing oil leak at Houston terminal; Seaway pipeline (JV with ENB) temporarily shut down. No casualties, cause under investigation.

• Centrica & Energy Capital Partners: acquire Grain LNG for ~$2bn – Europe’s largest LNG import terminal
Contributing to £1.6bn EBITDA target by 2028.

• Halliburton (HAL): 5-year contract with ConocoPhillips (COP) in the North Sea for well stimulation; vessel upgrade to stimulation platform.

• StandardAero (SARO): Raises 2025 revenue guidance to $6.025 billion; expands LEAP/CFM56 platforms, opens new facility in Augusta, Ga.

• JD.com (JD): Q2 revenue $49.8 billion (above expectations by $3.11 billion), Non-GAAP EPADS $0.69; JD Retail +20.6% y/y.

• Deere (DE): Q3 EPS $4.75 (up $0.16) on revenue $12.02B (-8.6% YoY).
FY25 net income guidance of $4.75B-$5.25B.

• TORM (TRMD): Raised 2025 guidance: TCE $800-950 million; Q2 EPS $0.60, Adj. EBITDA $129 million; support from fleet sales and earn-out days hedging.

• Equinox Gold (EQX): Q2 revenue of $478.6 million (+77.7%), Non-GAAP EPS of $0.11; production of 219,122 ounces, significant contribution from Nicaragua; confirmed full-year guidance.

• Galiano Gold (GAU): Q2 revenue $97.3 million (+52.1%), Non-GAAP EPS $0.08, Adj. EBITDA $39.9 million; strong operating cash flow, no debt.

• Strategy reported that its BTC reserves reached a new high of $77.2 billion.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund increased its "indirect" long position in BTC by 200% in Q2 2025,
thanks to investments in stocks such as MicroStrategy, Metaplanet and Coinbase.

• Block (XYZ) unveiled Proto, the first US ASIC for BTC mining.

• Foxconn reports 27% Q2 2025 profit growth amid strong AI demand

• Launch of new AI model DeepSeek delayed due to problems with Huawei chips, — FT.

• The number of Google searches for “altcoins” has risen to a 4-year high.

• Binance "accelerates" the Trump family's crypto project - WSJ.
The volume of USD1 cryptocurrency, owned by the Trump family, has grown in price to $4.5 billion since November 2024. According to The Wall Street Journal, the growth in value was provided by the PancakeSwap platform, created by Binance employees: it encouraged traders to trade USD1 through contests with prizes of up to $1 million, which increased the coin's turnover.

• CIO Bitwise named four hidden drivers of BTC and ETH growth that he believes the markets have not yet priced in.
1) More governments will start buying BTC.
2) The Fed will start cutting rates more aggressively than many expected.
3) BTC is maturing as an asset, meaning its volatility is decreasing — which is increasingly attractive to institutional investors.
4) ICOs are back.

• The rich from Silicon Valley pay up to $45,000 to have children with a known high IQ – this is how they form the future elite for the IT sector, – WSJ.
Diagnostics help in this, with the help of which it is possible to select embryos by the level of intelligence and the risks of genetic diseases.

• Intel (INTC) shares rose 7% yesterday and are up another 5% this morning.
The Trump administration is discussing the possibility of acquiring a stake in Intel.

• According to a new quarterly report from BRK, Warren Buffett's company bought $1.5 billion worth of UNH shares.
The news sent UNH shares up 11% in postmarket trading.
Buffett also bought DHI (+4% premarket), LEN (+6%), POOL (+2%), STZ (0%), NUE (+6%).
And he sold his stake in TMUS (-0.5%) and AAPL (-0.2%).

• Soros Fund Management and Appaloosa Management bought significantly more Nvidia shares.
Both companies also bought additional shares of embattled health insurance giant UNH.

Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- EU data: Eurozone reserve assets for July
- UK government debt auctions: Resumption of auctions of 1, 3 and 6 month government debt

Current fundamental views

• The US Treasury Secretary reiterated that the US will not purchase cryptocurrency for the reserve, but will use confiscated assets.
This means that the government will stop selling BTC, as other countries do.
The US crypto reserve is currently estimated at around $15-20 billion.
Bessent:
Maybe start with a 25bp cut and accelerate.
I did not call for the Fed to cut rates by 1.5%.
I did not tell the Fed what to do.
To get to neutral, it would be around a 1.5% rate cut.

• US Manufacturing Inflation Data:
Core PPI m/m = 0.9% (expected 0.2% / pop. 0.1%).
y/y = 3.7% (expected 2.9% / pop. 2.6%).
PPI m/m = 0.9% (expected 0.2% / pop. 0.1%).
y/y = 3.3% (expected 2.5% / pop. 2.4%).
Initial Jobless Claims
224K (expected 225K / pop. 227K)
After the inflation report, traders are actively cutting bets on a Fed rate cut in September - BBG.

• Trump: "We're way ahead of China in chips. China has batteries, we have oil and gas."
Trump on Chinese electric cars: "I don't like losing business to China. Chinese electric cars aren't coming to the U.S. because of tariffs."

• UNITED KINGDOM – GDP (Q2 2025).
q/q = +0.3% (expected +0.1% / previously +0.7%).
y/y = +1.2% (expected +1% / previously +1.3%).
Eurozone GDP Q2.
q/q = 0.1% (expected 0.1% / pop. 0.6%).
y/y= 1.4% (expected 1.4% / pop. 1.5%).

• Japan GDP (YoY):
+1.0% (expected +0.4%, pop: +0.6%, previous revised from -0.2% to +0.6%).

• China Unemployment Rate:
5.2% (expected 5.1%, actual: 5.0%)
China Industrial Production (YoY):
+5.7% (expected +6.0%, actual: +6.8%)
China Retail Sales (YoY):
+3.7% (expected +4.6%, previous: +4.8%)

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent:
Europe buying refined Russian oil from India
Bessent: More coordination with Europe needed on secondary sanctions
Bessent has called on European countries to be prepared to agree to higher tariffs on China and other countries that buy Russian energy,
after complaining that he received a cool response when he put the idea forward at a G7 meeting earlier this year - BBG.
It's time for European leaders calling on the US to tighten sanctions on Russia to either do something themselves or "shut up," Bessent said.

• In 2025, Kazakhstan overtook the Russian Federation in GDP per capita among the post-Soviet countries.
$14.77 thousand against $14.26 thousand, in third place is Turkmenistan ($13.34 thousand). For comparison, in China - $13.69 thousand.
Next in the ranking are Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - data from the International Monetary Fund.

• Trump wins appeal. Judges refuse to renew funding for USAID projects, despite it being included in the budget — Reuters

• In Serbia, clashes between Vucic's opponents and the police.
During protests against Serbian President Vucic on the evening of August 13, clashes with his supporters and security forces occurred in a number of cities. According to Vucic himself, 64 local residents and 15 police officers were injured in Novi Sad alone, according to preliminary data.

• HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) is actively using artificial intelligence to identify signs of tax evasion among taxpayers - The Telegraph.
For example, the service monitors social networks where users may publish reports of luxury purchases or holidays. This information is compared with financial data and tax returns of individuals to identify possible fraudulent activity.

• China is considering a plan for central government-controlled companies to buy back unsold homes from developers
to help stabilize the struggling property market - BBG
The property sector accounts for more than 25% of China's GDP.
More economists are calling on China to strengthen the yuan
, warning that a prolonged undervaluation of the currency could exacerbate trade tensions and distort China's growth model - Bloomberg.
North Korea's constitution to enshrine reluctance to improve ties with South Korea, Kim Jong-un's sister says.

Markets are risk-on, cryptocurrencies are on a historic run, stock market news from companies and geopolitics

2025-08-14T05:18:08+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The US stock market has been rotating from Growth to Value for the second day. And demand for long-term US government bonds has grown.
It is still unclear whether this is a tactical or strategic move. There were no objective reasons for panic. Therefore, for now it looks more like a capital flow from highly valued securities to lagging and cheap-looking ones.
Improving the breadth of the bull market is a good sign for a trend.
Bitcoin tested $124,000 this morning.
In a week, on August 22, Powell will speak in Jackson Hole, where he may dispel expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. People will be nervous.

• Markets are all in for risk, cryptocurrencies are on the rise, with Bitcoin joining global stocks in breaking a record high as a near-certain US interest rate cut boosts risk appetite and puts pressure on the dollar. The world's best-known cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has a lot going for it: the prospect of lower interest rates, a more favorable regulatory environment and optimistic inflows from institutional investors.

Ether is not far behind, trading near its highest since November 2021, becoming the token of choice for those looking for more active income. Ether has gained 42% this year, outpacing Bitcoin's 32% gain.

• Asian shares took a brief breather after a meteoric rise this week. Japanese shares fell after hitting a record high, while tech stocks in Taiwan and South Korea retreated from recent highs.

• Investors are betting the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates starting next month, with traders starting to even out the odds for a 50-basis-point cut after comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “If we were to see those numbers in May or June, I suspect we could cut rates in June and July. So I think there’s a very high probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut,” Bessent said in a Bloomberg Television interview in September.

• Yen rises: US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has been regularly criticised by US President Donald Trump, is expected to speak at a central bank research conference in Wyoming next week, with attention focused on his tone on the policy stance.

Bessent also said the Bank of Japan was likely to raise interest rates as it lagged in tackling inflation risks, leading to a sharp rise in the yen, which remains near its highest in three weeks.

• During the European session, investors will be focused on a range of economic data that will provide insight into tariff uncertainty and the impact of duties on the economy. While U.S. small business sentiment improved in July, more companies are citing “weak sales” as their top concern.
The measure rose to 11 in July, the highest since February 2021. Typically, when businesses worry about weak sales, unemployment rises.

• BofA reports near-record week of institutional buying.
Net institutional buying was the largest since September last year and the 10th largest on record, dating back to 2008.

• JPMorgan believes that US Treasury yields will continue to decline.
Historically, when the Fed resumes its easing cycle after a pause, yields tend to decline in the following months, JPM.

• Indian stocks have gone from being the most attractive Asian stock market to the least attractive for global asset managers in three months
Amid the escalation of the trade war with the US - BofA's August survey.

• Trump suggested that Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon replace his economist, who has expressed doubts about the success of Trump's economic policies, or completely switch to the wave of DJ success (Solomon has such a hobby).

• Corporate America isn't worried about a recession, Bloomberg says.
S&P 500 CEOs mentioned an economic downturn fewer than 300 times during the latest earnings season, nearly the lowest level since 2001.

• Exxon Mobil (XOM, +1%) has entered into an exploration deal in Trinidad and Tobago, with potential investment of up to $21.7 billion if reserves are confirmed, in a strategy aimed at repeating the success of the Guyana project.

• Elbit Systems (ESLT, +6%) has received a $1.635 billion defense contract with a European country,
bringing the company's order book to $23.8 billion. The contract covers advanced artillery and reconnaissance systems.

• Hudbay Minerals (HBM, +15%) raised $600 million from Mitsubishi in exchange for a 30% stake in the Copper World project.
The deal gives financial flexibility and defers capital expenditures to Hudbay, enhancing its copper production prospects.

• Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV, +2%) placed 7 million shares in a secondary offering, simultaneously announcing a buyback of up to $40 million.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, -1%) will phase out 6-inch wafer production over two years, focusing on 8-inch wafers to improve efficiency. The move will not affect the company's financial targets.

• United States Antimony (UAMY, +5%) forecasts 2025 revenue of $40-50 million, based on strong demand and rising prices.
Discussions are underway with the U.S. Department of Defense.

• Rekor Systems (REKR, +4.5%) announced a large-scale deployment of its solutions at the Texas Department of Transportation, expanding its SaaS and data subscription model.

• CAVA Group (CAVA, -17%) plans to reach 1,000 restaurants by 2032, showing revenue growth of +20.3%.
New menu items are planned, in particular chicken shawarma.

• US copper stocks rise sharply (longest run since 1992) as traders rush to ship metal to US amid Trump tariffs - BBG

• Peter Thiel-backed cryptocurrency exchange Bullish (BLSH) raised $1.1 billion in its IPO, well above its target.
It listed at $37, well above the $32-$33 range,
giving the company a $5.4 billion valuation.
The stock opened at $90 but immediately fell to close at $68. It recovered slightly to $76 in the after-market.
This is the first blow to speculators who have become accustomed to easy profits on IPO stocks in recent years.

• Standard Chartered has raised its Ethereum (ETH) forecast
to $7,500 by the end of 2025 (from $4,000), while its end-2028 target has risen to $25,000 (from $7,500).

• Starlink has started providing satellite Internet services in Kazakhstan.

• Sam Altman's OpenAI invested in Merge Labs, a competitor to Musk's Neuralink - FT.

• US to embed hidden trackers in Nvidia, AMD, Dell and Super Micro AI chips
to track illegal shipments to China - Reuters

• Glassnode: Despite BTC trading at historically high levels, there is no strong “profit taking” in sight.

• Western zoomers are abandoning subscriptions to music services and switching to MP3 players.
The reason is that it’s simply cheaper: even a simple player with up to 64 GB of memory can store up to 12,000 of your favorite songs, it’s inexpensive, and most importantly, there are no expensive subscriptions.

• CSCO shares are neutral (-0.2%) this morning after the report.

Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- Economic events: Eurozone Q2 preliminary GDP, UK Q2 preliminary GDP.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• The White House nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize and published a list of foreign leaders who supported his candidacy
- Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan.
- President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.
- Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Manet.
- President of Gabon Brice Oligi Nguema.
- Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu.
- Government of Pakistan.
- Foreign Minister of Rwanda Olivier Nduhiriehe.

• The Golden Dome missile defense system in the United States will receive 4 layers of protection.
According to Reuters, the system, developed by Trump's decision, will be equipped with:
- a space layer for detection, targeting for warning and tracking of missiles, as well as missile defense;
- three ground layers consisting of missile interception systems, radar arrays and, possibly, lasers.

• Trump: There has been a very unfair media campaign against my meeting with Putin.
Constantly quoting fired losers and truly incompetent people like John Bolton.

Russia is at least partially involved in the recent hack of a computer system that manages federal court documents,
including highly sensitive material that could contain information about sources and individuals accused of national security crimes, the NYT reports.

• China has imposed sanctions on two EU banks in response to restrictions over the war in Ukraine.
Beijing has banned any cooperation with Lithuanian banks Urbo Bankas and Mano Bankas and called on the EU to “correct its mistakes.”

• The US national debt exceeded $37 trillion for the first time in history.

• Modi will visit the US in September to attend the UN General Assembly.
However, the main purpose of the trip will be to meet Trump for trade talks — Indian Express.

• Japan - PPI inflation (July).
m/m = +0.2% (previously -0.1%).
y/y = +2.6% (previously +2.9%).

• German inflation figures.
MoM = 0.3% (expected 0.3%/ pop. 0.0%).
YoY = 2.0% (expected 2.0%/ pop. 2.0%).

• The IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 to 2.5 million barrels per day.
Following the latest increase in OPEC+ quotas (versus the previous 2.1 million bpd), it expects global crude oil refining volumes to approach a record 85.6 million bpd in August.
At the same time, the agency has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 680,000 bpd (versus 700,000 bpd previously) and for 2026 to 700,000 bpd (versus 720,000 bpd).

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent proposes extending export taxation to more industries, – FT.
/ This is a new type of corporate tax that could set a bad example for other countries and make the global economy less efficient by supporting big players at the expense of small ones.

Financial markets at historic highs, moderate inflation in the US, company news and geopolitics

2025-08-13T05:31:35+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Inflation was not so significant and provoked the purchase of risk, that is, shares. Hedge funds, which played for a fall in small-caps (IWM), were especially pronounced
. The dollar weakened. Gold is neutral. US government bonds fell slightly. However, this was a reaction to the growth of the US budget deficit.

• Stock markets around the world, from Wall Street to Japan to Vietnam, are hitting record highs, and stock indexes across Asia are a sea of green. Data from the U.S. and other major markets are falling into the "Goldilocks zone" of not-too-high inflation, allowing central banks to keep the easy money flowing.

The MSCI All Country World stock index hit a new all-time high, as did Japan's Nikkei index, which topped 43,000 for the first time. Bitcoin's cryptocurrency rival, Ethereum, jumped to a nearly four-year high.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting its key interest rate in September at 94%, while the day before it was almost 86%, and a month earlier it was about 57%.

• Australia's central bank cut rates yesterday and New Zealand's central bank is expected to follow suit next week. The Bank of Japan's long-awaited rate hike continues to be delayed.

• A Reuters poll tracking the Bank of Japan's quarterly business activity survey showed an index of Japanese manufacturer sentiment improved for a second straight month, while a separate report showed the country's wholesale inflation slowed in July.

• The dollar was left out, remaining among the biggest losers since US President Donald Trump began his tariff saga in April, raising and lowering them. A new concern for the greenback is that partisanship will creep into US monetary policy and undermine the sanctity of economic data. Trump has appointed White House adviser Stephen Miran to temporarily fill a vacant seat on the Fed board.

• The White House said the Bureau of Labor Statistics "plans" to continue publishing its closely watched monthly employment report after Trump's nominee to lead the agency, E.J. Anthony, previously proposed suspending its release.

• Today George Soros turns 95.

• The US market (S&P 500) has updated its historical maximum, rising by almost 33% from the April 2025 minimum.

• Norway's Government Pension Fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, has divested from 11 Israeli companies and is terminating all contracts with external managers in Israel,
according to a release from Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the fund. Its assets were valued at $1.7 trillion at the end of the first quarter.

• Equity markets signaled a sell signal for the second month in a row.
The share of cash in institutional investors' portfolios rose to 3.9% in August from 3.8% in July, according to BofA.

• Asian stock markets rise, Nikkei hits record as US-China trade truce continues

• China's internet regulator has ordered Bytedance, Alibaba Group (BABA) and Tencent holdings to stop purchasing Nvidia chips — The Information.

• Elon Musk has accused Apple of manipulating the App Store rankings in favor of OpenAI.
He said the current App Store system makes it impossible for any AI company other than OpenAI to reach the top spot in the rankings. He added that xAI would “immediately take legal action.”

• Pfizer (PFE, 0%) and Astellas (ALPMF) successfully completed late-phase Padcev + Merck (MRK, 0%) trials of Keytruda in bladder cancer, showing significant survival improvements and preparing regulatory applications.

• Bakkt (BKKT, -5%) becomes a pure-play crypto platform, raising $75 million.
Will sell the Loyalty business, develop infrastructure for stablecoins, new CEO.

• Synchronoss (SNCR, -12%) confirmed its $170–$180 million forecast for 2025, reduced debt by $100 million, and is developing AI products.
Revenue growth is driven by subscriptions and the SaaS model.

• Kodak (KODK, -20%) plans to return $500 million in pension assets, develops pharmaceutical production in the U.S., invests in film, EV battery coatings and creates a new medical division.

• Archer Aviation (ACHR, +7%) prepares mass production of eVTOL for 2028 Olympics, expands production, enters UAE market.

• Plug Power (PLUG, -2.5%) forecasts $700 million in 2025 thanks to Project Quantum Leap, which improves margins and expands the hydrogen network. Revenue +21% y/y.

• RCI Hospitality (RICK, +1%) projects $400 million in revenue and $75 million in free cash flow through 2029, driven by M&A and real estate optimization. Nightclubs are showing steady revenue.

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS, +8%) sees $50-$75M in H2 2025, accelerates satellite launches and develops S-Band deal, tests NTN with US military.

• Myomo (MYO, -37%) raised revenue growth forecast to 23-29%, works on lead quality and cuts expenses. Q2 +28% y/y.

• Orla Mining (ORLA, -5%) posted record gold production, Q2 $263.75 million (+211.9% y/y), adjusted forecast after quarry side incident.

• Tencent Music (TME< +12%) revenue $1.18 billion (+17.9% y/y), exceeded the forecast by $70 million. Paid subscriptions and online services grew, EPADS $0.23 (+$0.03 before expectations).

• INTC +6% after Intel CEO meeting with Trump.

• OpenAI brings back GPT-4o after user outcry against GPT-5.

• Nvidia may soon try to strike another deal with China with Trump involved for a cut-down version of its latest Blackwell AI chips, CNBC reports.
Trump said the China version of Blackwell would be "specifically limited... to reduce performance by 30 to 50 percent."

• Coinbase Ventures has invested in TON.
The amount of the deal was not disclosed, but TON Foundation President Manuel Stotz said the purchase was made directly from Telegram.

• Monero 51% Attack: Mining Pool Qubic Possibly Takes Control of Network - CryptoRank.
SlowMist founder reported that mining pool Qubic has taken over the majority of Monero's hashrate, allowing for a massive reorganization of the blockchain. This allows for rewriting the network's history, triggering double spending, and censoring transactions.
XMR -7.5% in 24 hours.

• Ethereum - $4600.
Capital inflow into Ethereum ETF exceeded $1 billion for the first time.

• CRCL +1% after reporting, CIRCLE revenue in Q2 grew by 53% on stablecoins.

• eToro (ETOR, -8%) reports debut as a public company: Q2 profit rises to $30.2 million, assets under management grow 54% y/y.

• Visa (V, 0%) plans to increase its share of the stablecoin payments market.

• China's largest sovereign wealth funds are buying their own equity products, showing confidence in China's stock market - SCMP

• Block (XYZ, +2%) plans to offer small businesses a full-featured BTC banking package.

• Hedge funds continue to short ETH at record levels: the total volume of shorts in CME futures continues to set new records - CFTC.
On the spot, on the contrary, there are strong purchases.

• Fintech giant Stripe is developing a new blockchain, Tempo, in partnership with crypto venture firm Paradigm, - Fortune.

• Tesla (TSLA) is currently cutting prices more than other U.S. electric car makers
to maximize profits ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit that Trump repealed, analysts say.
The company cut prices by 9% in July (compared to a maximum of 4% cut by other EV makers).

• AirPods will be able to translate languages in real time.
This feature was spotted in an image in the iOS 26 beta 6 test.
The feature is expected to appear in AirPods Pro 2 and AirPods 4, and will likely require a compatible iPhone with Apple Intelligence to work.

• CRWV shares fall 10% after morning report.

• CAVA falls 22% after report.

• Today, the IPO of crypto company Bullish (BLSH) is planned at a price of $32-33.
Given the excitement in the market, trading will probably begin at a much higher price.

• Perplexity has made a $34.5 billion bid for Google Chrome
ahead of a major antitrust ruling against Google. However, Google is unlikely to sell the browser.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- German final consumer price index (CPI) data for July.
- UK RICS housing survey for July.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• OPEC monthly report:
OPEC cuts non-OPEC+ production growth forecast for 2026 to 630,000 b/d (previously 730,000 b/d).
OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.38 million b/d.
The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 remained unchanged at 1.29 million b/d.
OPEC expects US shale oil production to decline by 100,000 b/d next year.
OPEC oil production in July averaged 41.94 million b/d, up 335,000 b/d from June after OPEC+ increased quotas.

• US Inflation Indicators
CPI m/m = 0.2% (expected 0.2% / was 0.3%).
y/y = 2.7% (expected 2.8% / was 2.7%).
Core CPI m/m = 0.3% (expected 0.3% / was 0.2%).
y/y = 3.1% (expected 3.0% / was 2.9%).

• The market is increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.

• Trump says he's considering filing major lawsuit against Powell over his mismanagement of Fed building construction
Schmid (Fed):
"Tariffs appear to have limited impact on inflation - reason to keep current policy unchanged, not reason to cut rates."
EJ Anthony suggests pausing monthly labor market report - Fox Business

• Bessent: The main thing to think about right now is whether to cut [the Fed's] interest rate by 50 basis points in September.
We'll need to see months, if not a year, of progress in the fight against fentanyl before we cut tariffs on Chinese goods.

• The US government budget deficit widened sharply in July.
Revenue from tariffs rose to a record of about $20 billion.
Government spending rose by 9.7% y/y to almost $630 billion.
Government revenues grew by only 2.5% y/y to $338 billion.
The deficit rose to $291 billion ($243 billion a year earlier).

• The outcome of the meeting between Putin and Trump could be an agreement on developing two roadmaps - on Ukraine and the normalization of bilateral relations
- Thomas Graham, former special assistant to former US President George W. Bush.

• Europe is preparing for war
FT satellite analysis reveals historic scale of rearmament.
Arms production in Europe is growing three times faster than in peacetime - more than 7 million m² of new factories and infrastructure.
Key facts:
- Artillery shell production capacity has increased from 300,000 in 2022 to 2 million in 2025.
- Rheinmetall will increase production of 155mm shells by 15 times by 2027, BAE Systems - by 16 times.

• Switzerland wants Trump to formally and firmly confirm the waiver of gold tariffs to ensure trade stability, - Reuters.

• India and China to resume direct flights after nearly 5 years amid growing tariff tensions between the US and India.

• Chinese refiners are ordering less oil from Saudi Arabia, a decline that likely points to a realignment of global flows amid rising availability of Russian oil, Energy Aspects reports.

• China to create world's largest shipbuilder - WSJ
China is merging two state-owned companies in a $16 billion deal to create a global industry leader.
The U.S. is trying to rebuild its own shipbuilding industry, but President Trump's plans are facing challenges.
The future giant, China State Shipbuilding, will have more than 530 ships on order and a major role in military production.

• Prices for tanks, armored vehicles and artillery will fall, not rise, the head of Rheinmetall said.
According to Armin Papperger, the increase in defense budgets of European countries will not lead to inflation and waste of taxpayers' money. Thanks to the increase in order volumes and automation of processes, the final price of defense products will become profitable for both the manufacturer and the buyer, the chairman of the board of the German defense concern told the British Financial Times.

• Taylor Swift's latest album accounted for more than 6% of all album sales in 2024.

Financial Markets Calm, Nvidia and AMD Give US Government 15% of Revenue, Corporate and Geopolitical Reviews

2025-08-11T06:20:44+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Financial markets are slightly positive in the morning - US stock index futures are up 0.2% on average, the VIX index is falling below 17, oil is down almost 1%.
Bitcoin is around $120,000, and Ethereum has exceeded $4,300.

• It’s been a quiet start to the week, with Japan on holiday and President Trump busy playing golf. It’s worth noting that Nikkei futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are just a step away from all-time highs, suggesting the cash index could well reach them this week. The Nikkei still has a P/E of just 19, compared to 22 for the S&P 500 and nearly 33 for the Nasdaq, which is essentially a premium for AI.

• The bad news is that Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15% of the revenue from AI chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses. It would be a highly unusual deal, especially given that the US initially blocked the sale on national security grounds. Is it a tax? A fee? Where will the money go? How will it be distributed? So many unknowns.

• For the dollar and bonds, the main economic event on Tuesday will be U.S. consumer prices, where the impact of tariffs could push the benchmark rate up 0.3% to an annual pace of 3.0% and further from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Forecasts range from 2.9% to 3.2%, suggesting some upside potential that could test market bets on a rate cut in September. Analysts believe it would take something truly shocking to move the rate significantly, given the recent job losses that are now shaping the policy outlook.

• The US trade deal with China is set to expire on Tuesday, and while there is widespread speculation that it will be extended, neither side has made any announcements on the matter.

• Chaos appears to be a feature rather than a bug. Take COMEX gold futures, which surged last week after U.S. Customs said the most actively traded gold bars, produced mainly by Switzerland, would be hit with tariffs.

On Friday, the White House assured the market that this was “misinformation” and that clarification would be forthcoming, but nothing more was heard. The copper market suffered similar tariff-induced turmoil last week.

• Last week, the Japanese trade mission had to rush to Washington to eliminate double taxation on its exports. Japan believes the problem has been resolved, but there is no written confirmation yet.

• Oil prices have now fallen on the chance that talks between Trump and Russian leader Putin, scheduled for Friday, do lead to progress on the Ukraine issue. However, progress seems unlikely given that the White House is pushing the idea of a territorial swap that Ukraine will never agree to.

There are also reports from Europe that Trump envoy Steve Witkoff misunderstood Putin's proposal at a meeting last week, indicating some risk that the entire Alaska adventure could be called off prematurely.

• Nvidia and AMD to give US government 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China - FT.
In exchange for export licenses, the companies agreed to pay 15% of sales of their H20 and MI308 chips in China. It is the first such agreement.
The US Commerce Department has started issuing licenses to Nvidia (NVDA) to export its H20 chips to China - Reuters.
Chinese state media have said Nvidia's H20 chips are dangerous for the country and have called on consumers to boycott them.

• Trump accuses Nancy Pelosi of insider trading.
“Crooked Nancy Pelosi and her very ‘interesting’ husband beat every hedge fund in 2024.
In other words, these two rather mediocre ‘minds’ beat every single super genius on Wall Street, thousands of them. This is all INSIDE INFORMATION! Is anyone even investigating this??? She is a disgusting degenerate who impeached me twice WITHOUT ANY BASIS and LOST! How do you like it now, Nancy??”

• Grok 4 is now free: Elon Musk has opened access to his most advanced neural network for all users.
Musk's AI capabilities are almost comparable to GPT-5, and in some tasks even surpass it.

• JPMorgan notes that the U.S. Treasury and small-cap market is pricing in significantly higher recession risk than is seen in the U.S. large-cap and corporate bond markets.

• The current earnings season has been one of the strongest in recent years.
About 63% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations by at least one standard deviation — the highest in four years, and excluding the post-pandemic recovery — the best quarter in at least 25 years (the long-term average is 48%).
At the same time, only 10% of companies missed forecasts by the same amount, the lowest in a year and below the average of 13%.

• Monthly trading volume on Coinbase Exchange fell from $89 billion in April to less than $57 billion in June, while in Q1 it did not fall below $100 billion, - Kaiko.

• German naval vessel manufacturer goes public. Will the company be able to follow in Rheinmetall's footsteps?
We are talking about Thyssenkrupp subsidiary Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), Germany's largest naval vessel manufacturer, which is becoming an independent entity and intends to list 49% of its shares on the stock exchange.

• Nvidia's weight in the S&P 500 is 8%, the largest of any individual stock since data began in 1981 - Apollo.
NVDA has a P/E of 58x, but a forward P/E of 31x.

• Spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $404 million on August 8.
Spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $461 million, with BlackRock's ETHA fund raising $255 million of that.
REX-Osprey's SOL ETF saw net inflows of $6.4 million.

• Binance partners with Spain's BBVA to store assets - FT
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance is teaming up with Spanish bank BBVA to allow its customers to store digital assets off-exchange. The move is part of Binance's strategy to restore investor confidence after a record fine imposed by US authorities nearly two years ago, the Financial Times reports.

• Despite the active implementation of AI in business processes, currently only about 10% of companies use AI to produce goods and services, and only 1% have solutions that significantly impact business, - JPMorgan.
AI is more likely to transform the roles of workers than replace them completely: for example, in the field of software development, the demand for specialists is even growing.

• OpenAI brought back the GPT-4o model after the launch of GPT-5.
Users are complaining en masse about the quality of the new model. They note that it:
- works slowly and is "stupid",
- makes basic mistakes,
- responds sparingly, formulaically and without emotion.
Dozens, and sometimes hundreds of topics with complaints appear on Reddit. The community is unhappy, and many believe that the new model is noticeably worse than previous versions.

• In 5 years, mice and keyboards will be in the trash.
Future Windows will only work via AI voice chat, Microsoft warned.
Instead of "ticking and typing," we should talk to the computer - like a colleague on the phone.
/ Will the days of quiet offices be over? But what if a person doesn't want to talk, but is used to working in silence?

Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- No important data.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Thousands of people took to the streets in Tel Aviv and other cities in Israel
after the prime minister's decision to establish full control over the Gaza Strip, the Times of Israel reports.
Israel plans to announce the mobilization of tens of thousands of reservists for the full occupation of the Gaza Strip - media.
Netanyahu presented a five-point plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip
The plan, called "Five Principles for Ending the War," calls for the disarmament of Hamas, the release of all Israeli hostages, the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, and the transfer of power in the region to a "non-Israeli peaceful civilian administration." Israel, according to Benjamin Netanyahu's plan, would bear "responsibility for security" in Gaza.

• Putin appears to have teamed up with Libyan general to spark new EU migrant crisis - The Telegraph
The European Commission has tracked an increase in flights between the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi and Minsk,
with officials saying the trend suggests possible coordination with General Khalifa Haftar, the military dictator who controls much of eastern Libya, to facilitate a wave of illegal migration to the EU.

• Xi Jinping tightens control over military after corruption scandals - NYT
The leadership of the Chinese military is being purged: several top generals have disappeared or are under investigation.
Investigations have even affected commanders personally promoted by Xi Jinping, which indicates deep problems in the military elite.

• Discontent is growing in the UK over the problem of illegal immigrants, with anti-immigration protests taking place in a number of cities across the country – GB News.

• India’s refusal to purchase Russian oil will cost the country $9 billion in 2025 and $12 billion in 2026, the Indian State Bank calculated.

• China is seeking to ease US export controls on high-bandwidth memory chips as part of a trade deal, the FT said.
The issue has been raised in three months of talks with the US, which say the measure limits the ability of Chinese companies, including Huawei, to build their own AI chips.

• Barclays says the changing structure of US trade has limited the impact of the tariff changes for now.
The bulk of the change is a shift away from trade with China.
However, most of the impact of the tariffs has not yet been felt in the US economy, Barclays economists say.

• The Visa Spending Momentum Index hit recent highs in July, the highest since the pandemic
, which defies current consensus given strong real employment income.

• JPMorgan Chief Economist Michael Feroli: If Miran is confirmed as Fed chair before the September meeting, keeping rates steady could result in at least three Fed officials advocating for a rate cut in September.
“That’s a lot of disagreement,” Feroli wrote.
“For Powell, risk-management considerations at the next meeting could go beyond balancing employment and inflation risks, and we now see the path of least resistance as pushing the next 25bp rate cut to the September meeting.”

• The July U.S. consumer price index is due out on Tuesday, showing how tariffs are affecting inflation.
Wall Street economists expect core inflation to have risen 2.8% year-on-year in July, faster than the 2.7% rise seen in June.
On a “core” basis, which excludes food and energy prices, the CPI is expected to have risen 3% year-on-year in July, compared with 2.9% in June. The monthly increase in core prices is expected to be 0.3%, up from the 0.2% seen a month earlier.
UBS senior economist Alan Detmeister wrote in a note to clients that tariffs are driving the acceleration in inflation, and the July data will mark the start of several months of an uptrend. Detmeister forecasts the core CPI to rise to 3.5% by the end of the year from 2.9% in June.

New Opportunities in Artificial Intelligence, Changes in Fed Board Members, Stock Market News, and Geopolitics

2025-08-08T05:07:15+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The US stock market opened yesterday up about 1%, but closed the day around zero. Banks were the leaders in the decline. The deterioration of credit portfolios plays a role here.
AAPL was the leader in growth - a new iPhone is expected here in September.
In the morning, US stock index futures are up 0.3%.
Crypto is growing, and ETH is leading here, having come very close to recent highs.

• With US President Donald Trump’s nomination for the vacant Federal Reserve seat now off the table, investors are awaiting Senate confirmation to see if Stephen Miran will have a vote at the central bank’s September meeting.
Trump on Thursday appointed the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to fill the final few months of the vacant Federal Reserve Board seat, following the surprise resignation of Fed Chair Adriana Kugler last week. The news drew little reaction from markets on Friday, as Miran’s chances of being confirmed by the Senate remain uncertain. The economist has called for a complete overhaul of the Fed’s governance. But one thing is for sure: If Miran joins the Fed, he will likely vote to cut rates. And even as an interim governor, his appointment would give Trump a potentially more direct path to achieving his goals of looser monetary policy and control over the world’s most powerful central bank.

Trump also said the White House is continuing to search for a candidate to fill the 14-year term on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors that begins Feb. 1, and is also considering options to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15, 2026.

Bloomberg News reported Thursday that Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller is being considered a leading candidate to become the central bank's next chairman and has met with members of Trump's team who were impressed with him.

• Tokyo tariff overhang lifted. The U.S. government pledged Thursday to amend a presidential order to eliminate overlapping tariffs on Japanese goods, Tokyo's trade negotiator said after talks in Washington to correct what he called an "embarrassing" oversight.

During those discussions, Ryosei Akazawa called on U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to ensure that the 15% tariff agreed to last month on Japanese imports is not added to products like beef that are subject to higher duties. The lifting of the tariff overhang lifted Tokyo stocks and helped push the Topix index above the key 3,000 psychological mark for the first time on Friday, helped by a series of strong earnings reports.

• SoftBank Group shares rose nearly 11% after the tech investor reported a return to profit in the first quarter.

• OpenAI has released GPT-5, which is freely available to everyone (with restrictions).
It's a hybrid AI system, not a single model. It's a system of six models with an intelligent router that independently analyzes a query and chooses which model will do the best job.
Altman said, "GPT-4 was like being a student, GPT-5 is like talking to a PhD expert."
The model is called the best coding on the market (we're waiting for real reviews).
The model has been taught to perform multi-step tasks using different tools and files without getting lost in long context.
It hardly hallucinates.
On LMArena, where users blindly rate answers, GPT-5 took first place, ahead of o3 and Gemini 2.5 Pro.

• Elon Musk said his Grok 4 Heavy AI was already smarter than the current GPT-5 two weeks ago, and now it has become even better.
According to him, Grok 4 outperformed GPT-5 in the ARC-AGI test.

• Trump signed an executive order allowing cryptocurrency and private assets to be included in 401(k) retirement accounts.
Trump appointed Dr. Stephen Miran to the Fed until January 31, 2026, and will continue to search for a permanent replacement.
The Fed now has three votes to lower rates.
One of the articles that particularly caught the attention of Wall Street was Miran’s paper questioning the wisdom of a stronger dollar for the country.

• The Bitcoin Reserve Act, currently being considered by the US Congress, includes a clause on gold revaluation.
This means an official increase in the value of gold in dollars, which could strengthen the Fed's balance sheet and partially devalue the government debt without direct emission. Such a step could be considered as an alternative way to stabilize the financial system in the face of debt pressure.

• $10 billion sent by fans to content creators via Patreon.
The service recently celebrated its monetary anniversary - this is the total amount of donations collected and transferred through the platform throughout its entire existence.

• Trump: “We are imposing a 100% tariff on chips, a 100% tariff on all semiconductors imported into the United States. The only exemption from the tariff is for those who have committed to building production in the United States.”

• Expectations of a possible truce between Ukraine and Russia are fueling demand for the euro, especially against the backdrop of optimistic statements by Donald Trump, - ING.
In the event of a real breakthrough in the negotiations, the EUR/USD and EUR/CHF pairs could become the main beneficiaries.

• US companies announced $166 billion in buybacks in July, the highest figure ever for that month.

• The previous record ($88 billion) was set in 2006. Google introduced Genie 3, an AI that creates games from text.
You need to write something like “I want to be a dragon flying over a volcano” — and Genie 3 will generate the game itself: the world, physics, sounds, controls — everything works in real time.

• Tim Cook presented Trump with glass with gold and promised $600 billion in investments in the USA.
Apple AAPL increases investments in the American economy to $600 billion in 4 years and launches a program to localize production.
iPhones can now be assembled in the USA, and chips can be manufactured in Texas, Utah, Arizona and New York.
Apple will also receive the right to produce its own electricity.

• Apple (AAPL) is losing key AI talent, - FT.
In 2025, about 10 members of its AI team went to competitors: Meta, OpenAI, xAI, Cohere.
Apple said it would make 19 billion chips in the US and pledged to buy all rare earth magnets from a US supplier.

• A law has come into force in the EU that literally turns open Android into a cut-down version of iOS.
Now in Europe, Android smartphones are becoming strictly closed systems, where the user does not own his device at the software level, and any changes to the firmware are prohibited.

• Microsoft (MSFT) is poaching employees of Google's (GOOGL) DeepMind AI division, - WSJ.
/ It's their game now. They've increased their capacity, now they're looking for those who can handle it.

• General Motors and Hyundai will jointly develop cars amid competition in the electric vehicle market from China.

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) jumped nearly 5% after being exempted from a potential 100% U.S. tariff on chips due to TSMC's $165 billion investment in Arizona factories.

• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) gained 2.5% after Apple announced it would source chips from a Samsung plant in Texas, and Samsung and SK hynix received tariff exemptions.

• Airbnb (ABNB) targets $4.02B-$4.10B in Q3 revenue after +7% nights booked and FIFA partnership.

• Magnite (MGNI) posted +14% CTV contribution in Q2 and deals with Roku, Netflix; expects growth in SMB segment and benefit from the decision against Google.

• Dutch Bros (BROS) raised its 2025 revenue and EBITDA forecasts after +28% revenue and +6.1% same-store sales; plans to open 160 new locations.

• Energy Transfer (ET) announced the $5.3 billion Desert Southwest pipeline but cut its 2025 EBITDA forecast due to Bakken challenges and slowing dry gas demand growth.

• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) reported +1% revenue to $9.81 billion and confirmed $2.4 billion EBITDA in the studio segment.

• elf Beauty (ELF) posted +9% net sales, strengthening in international markets despite tariff pressure.

• Joby Aviation (JOBY) outlines $1 billion opportunity in Saudi Arabia and 100-aircraft joint venture with Japan.

• Jack in the Box (JACK) has launched a $100 million real estate sale and 1,000 restaurant renovation plan to revitalize the brand.

• Sana Biotechnology (SANA) lost 13% after a $75 million stock offering at $3.35 per share (with prepaid warrants).

• Rheinmetall (RHM) reported slightly worse-than-expected second-quarter sales but maintained its 2025 outlook.

• Trump met with the heads of Citigroup and BofA to discuss plans to privatize mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC).

• QryptoQuant notes a sharp drop in stablecoin reserves on exchanges = historically bearish trend.
Since stablecoins are considered to be launched on exchanges primarily for the purpose of buying crypto, the withdrawal of stablecoins can be perceived as an indicator of a decrease in risk appetite.

• Futures market funding has eased to neutral levels,
suggesting that bulls are less willing to pay a leverage premium, as well as cooling speculative interest and less confidence in near-term growth, - Glassnode.

• U.S. Bitcoin miners are bracing for a slowdown
after the White House imposed steep reciprocal import tariffs on mining equipment from Southeast Asia.
The new rates, which went into effect on August 7, include a 19% reciprocal tariff on ASIC miners imported from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. This brings the total import duties for those countries to 21.6%.

• The global diamond industry is expecting a “black day”.
When additional duties on imports from India come into effect in the US, the gemstone market risks losing one of its most important export sectors in the event of the promised 25% rate.
This is a black day for the jewellery sector and gemstones.

• LLY -14%
On poor results in test of oral obesity drug.

• CROX shares fell 29% yesterday.
People expect discounts, otherwise they won't buy. And the company refused discounts.

• FTNT shares fell 22% yesterday
Firewall update cycle is 40-50% complete.

• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) shares are up 34% since its IPO.
The stock opened at $70 a share, up 56% from its IPO price of $45. The stock ended the session at $60, still up 34%.
Earlier this week, the company raised its expected IPO price range to $41 to $43, after initially setting a range of $35 to $39 a week earlier.

Stocks Premarket Post-Earnings
EXPE +17%
NTRA +15%
CART +14%
MP +8%
MNST +6%
XYZ+6%
TTWO +5%
GILD +3%
TEAM +0%
MSI -1%
RKLB -2%
KTOS -2%
SMR -2%
GDDY -3%
MCHP -6%
TWLO -11%
PINS -11%
TTD -29%

Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem's speech
- Under Armour's first-quarter earnings

Current Fundamental Reviews

• China: World Trade in U.S. Dollars (July).
Exports = +7.2% y/y (exp. +5.4% / prior +5.8%).
Imports = +4.1% y/y (exp. +4.1% / prior +1.1%).
China’s exports beat expectations in July, rising more than 7%; imports posted their biggest jump in a year — CNBC.
S&P affirmed China’s ratings at ‘A+/A-1’, with a stable outlook.
The stable outlook for China reflects expectations that the economy will return to self-sustaining growth of more than 4% over the next few years.

• US Labor Market Data.
Initial Jobless Claims = 226K (expected 221K / actual 219K).
Nonfarm Productivity q/q (Q2) = 2.4% (expected 1.9% / actual -1.8%).
Unit Labor Costs q/q (Q2) = 1.6% (expected 1.6% / actual 6.9%).
US: 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (July) = +3.1% (previous +3%).
Apollo's Thorsten Slok notes that the ISM service sector price data for July shows that service sector inflation pressures are increasing,
creating risks for further CPI gains in the coming months.

Christopher Waller has emerged as Trump's favorite to replace Powell as Fed chief.
He is valued for his willingness to base decisions on forecasts rather than current data and his deep understanding of the Fed system, sources said. He has not yet met Trump himself, but has discussed the job with his advisers, BBG.

• Trump recalled that new US tariffs on imports of goods from 60 countries came into effect yesterday.

• Lula da Silva to propose BRICS countries discuss response to US tariffs - RTRS.
The Brazilian president said he plans to meet with the leaders of the BRICS countries, starting with India and China, to discuss the possibility of a joint response to US tariffs.

• Trump, by introducing tariffs, risks destroying US-India relations and forcing it to strengthen ties with Russia and China — NYT.

• The Trump administration plans to reduce criticism of El Salvador, Israel and Russia over human rights violations — WP.
The publication has reviewed the draft of the State Department's annual human rights report. It is noted that the reports concerning these countries are significantly shorter than those prepared by the administration of former Democratic President Joe Biden.

• Indian PM Modi vows to 'never compromise' in face of 50% US tariffs - FT

• The US is negotiating with Asian countries (including India) to become their main supplier of oil and gas instead of Russia. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright.

• US-Swiss trade deal talks collapse as Swiss president leaves White House without making statement
"Tariffs at current levels have a much bigger impact than the Fed's next 50 basis point move, but the latter is getting as much if not more attention," - Lyn Alden

• Current US tariffs are about $500 billion per year in additional “tax” on imports (from $3.3 trillion in volume at an average rate of ~15%). For comparison, raising the Fed rate by 50 bp has a much smaller effect - about $100 billion in impact on the deficit or 0.2-0.5% of GDP (~$140 billion).
The US expects to receive $50 billion per month from duties - US Commerce Secretary Latnik.

• Armenia is ready to transfer exclusive rights to the transit corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan - RTRS - to the United States.
Trump, Pashinyan and Aliyev will hold talks in the White House today.

• Trump team seeks resignation of top IEA official - Politico
The IEA constantly predicts the end of oil, gas, coal and everything else Trump loves.

Stock market news of companies and geopolitics, Bank of England rate cut, cooling of the US labor market

2025-08-07T05:17:41+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The US stock market grew by an average of 1% yesterday. The growth leaders were the XLY, XLP, XLK, XLC sectors. And the decline leaders were XLV.
Everything is calm in the morning.
Bitcoin is hovering around $115 thousand. Ether has risen back to $3700.

• There is little doubt in the market that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by a further quarter point today, its fifth cut in a year. But the delicate balance between a slowing labour market and lingering inflation concerns could see the board split into three groups, with two of its nine members possibly pushing for rates to remain unchanged and two others lobbying for a half-point cut. The wording of the board's decision will also be key, with a focus on whether the idea of a "gradual and cautious" easing remains in place.

Any sign of a prolonged pause would be a blow to Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who have promised to boost Britain's sluggish economic growth.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve has seen a clear downward trend in macroeconomic data over the past week, especially labor market data, just days after its board decided to forgo a rate cut. However, with the data also reflecting concerns about rising inflation as a result of President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff campaign, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's wait-and-see stance is also finding some support.

The Fed debate, in which two Trump-appointed governors expressed dissent over the decision last week, has been dominated by the president's persistent and aggressive calls for lower rates, often accompanied by insults and threats to fire Powell before his term as chairman ends in May.

Market attention is focused on Trump's short list of four possible candidates and, more importantly, his candidacy for governor, which was suddenly vacated by Adriana Kugler.

• Meanwhile, Trump's barrage of tariff threats continues unabated, with the latest threats including a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports and additional duties on Russian oil imports to India.

Trump plans to talk to Russia's president next week about ending the war in Ukraine, which is supporting the euro but raising uncertainty about the outlook for crude prices. But the market has become more accustomed to the constant saber-rattling over tariffs, with Japan's Topix index hitting a record high, while Taiwanese tech stocks jumped more than 2% to hit their highest in a year.

Futures on the pan-European STOXX 50 index rose 0.2%, while Wall Street futures also rose by about the same amount. One reason is a strong earnings season in the U.S., with Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips and Warner Bros. Discovery, among many others, expected in the coming days.

• Europe also expects a busy day of earnings reports, including from Allianz, Siemens and Merck. On the data front, Germany releases trade and industrial production data, while the UK releases house price data.

• The current bull market, which started in October 2022, has already lasted 33 months and has brought +84% growth.
In comparison, the median length of bull markets is 30 months with +90% gains.
According to the Fidelity analyst, the April “scare” in the market seemed serious, but in fact did not break the overall uptrend, and the forward movement continues.

• Record number of Chinese companies set to list on US exchanges in 2025
despite difficulties in Sino-US relations – RTRS.

• Chinese stocks rise after Trump talks about possible meeting with Xi Jinping.

• China - New Energy Passenger Vehicle (NEV) retail sales (July) = 1,003,000 vehicles = -10% m/m = +14% y/y - preliminary CPCA data.

• A long-standing shortage of platinum supplies has reached a critical point.
Banks are trying to buy up dwindling stockpiles in London amid active buying of the metal by China and the US - BBG.
However, platinum prices have been falling for the past two weeks.

• US aluminum imports fall by a quarter due to 50% tariff - S&P Global.

• Berkshire (BRK) shares are falling ahead of Warren Buffett's departure.
Down 13% from their peak in early May,
the conglomerate's stock has underperformed the market by the second-largest amount since 1990. — FT

• FT: OpenAI could become the world's most valuable private tech group.
The company is in talks with investors about a secondary sale of employee shares that could value the company at $500 billion.
At this rate, it could reach $1 trillion before the IPO.

OpenAI has launched a competition with a $500,000 prize pool.
All you need to do is hack their new open source gpt-oss-20b model.
The goal is to find promt injections and vulnerabilities that will reveal incorrect model behavior. There are 21 days left until the end of the competition.
The prize will be divided equally between 10 winners.

OpenAI tools to be deployed across US federal government - Fox
Elon Musk said he will open source xAI's Grok 2 chatbot next week.

• China's investment demand for gold is growing rapidly, Bloomberg reported.
Stocks of gold in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to 36 tons, nearly double what they were a month ago,
indicating growing demand for futures contracts that trade at a steep premium to physical gold.

• The Federal Aviation Administration has proposed a new policy
that could make it much easier for Walmart, Amazon and others to launch commercial drone delivery services.

• Over $18 billion in short positions in Bitcoin are at risk of liquidation
if the BTC price reaches $125,000.

• Hyperliquid generated 35% of all blockchain revenue in July, - VanEck.

Glassnode: The BTC market has moved from the euphoric stage to the cooling stage, investors have become more cautious in their assessments, and selling pressure is increasing.

• Former Gensler adviser claims liquid staking carries risks,
similar to the “re-mortgage” practiced by Lehman Brothers before the collapse, and could trigger a systemic crisis in the crypto industry.

• Spotify (SPOT, +3%) raised its subscription price to €11.99 from €10.99
for subscribers in Europe, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia Pacific.
Despite the growth in its paying audience, its revenue forecast was below analysts' expectations.

• Uber (UBER, -0.2%) launches $20B share buyback after record $8.5B FCF for the year; EPS falls short at $0.19, but management shows confidence.
MasterBrand + American Woodmark (MBC, AMWD) — $3.6B all-stock merger; combined Adj. EBITDA of $639M (including $90M in synergies). MBC shareholders will get majority.

• Coinbase (COIN, +2%) — placed $2.6 billion in convertible bonds (2029/2032), with a possible increase to $2.96 billion; funds under capped call and general liquidity.
BWX Technologies (BWXT) — +18% to an all-time high on Tuesday.

• US Navy contract + rumors of a nuclear reactor for the Moon; annual guide increased.

• AMD (AMD, -6%) forecasts +28% revenue in Q3 thanks to MI350 and EPYC; Q2 +32% y/y.

• Toast (TOST, -4%) — fintech + GP subscription +29%; entry into Australia, partnership with AmEx, record connections.

• Rivian (RIVN, -4%) — confirmed a plan for 40-46 thousand auto deliveries in 2025; working on autonomy despite tariff risks.

• Snap (SNAP, -17%) — Q3 revenue guidance of $1.48-1.51 billion; Q2 +9% y/y, Snapchat+ is growing.

• RingCentral (RNG, +27%) — 2025 FCF guidance raised to $520 million; first positive GAAP operating profit, new alliance with AT&T.

• Paysign (PAYS, -27%) — 2025 revenue cap raised to $78.5 million; record Q2, best margins.

• Wix (WIX, +0.3%) — Q2 $490 million (+12%); improved Outlook H2 2025.

• Bayer (BAYZF) raised its revenue forecast to €46-48 billion (adjusted for exchange rates) despite a 3.6% decline in Q2.

• Tim Cook said new tariffs on India will not affect Apple (AAPL, +5%).

• Tesla (TSLA, +4%) is training a new Full Self-Driving (FSD) model, expected to be publicly released in September.

• EUR/USD remains almost entirely dependent on dollar movements, with little support from the eurozone, - ING.
Despite the pair being somewhat undervalued, growth is being held back by an overestimation of US risks, particularly with regard to the economy and Trump's policies.

• ElevenLabs has launched an AI service for generating royalty-free music.
Eleven Music creates songs with vocals and lyrics based on text requests and is available for commercial use.

Stocks in the morning after the reports
DUOL +19%
BROS +17%
PAYC +10%
DASH +8%
DKNG +6%
HUBS +5%
CRH +4%
CTVA +2%
OXY +1%
ET -1
% MCK -1%
LYFT -4%
IONQ -5%
APP -5%
MET -5%
ABNB -6%
ELF -11%
EXAS -16%
FTNT -17%
SYM -18%

Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- Bank of England policy decision
- House prices in Halifax, UK (July)
- German exports, imports, industrial production (all of June)

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump said a decision on the nomination of a new Fed chief would be made by the end of this week.

• Eurozone economic activity indicators:
Retail Sales m/m = 0.3% (exp. 0.4% / pop. -0.3%).
y/y = 3.1% (exp. 2.6% / pop. 1.9%).

CME FedWatch: 94% chance of 0.25% rate cut in September already

• Kashkari (Fed):
In the near term, it may be appropriate to start adjusting interest rates.
The Fed must respond to the slowdown in economic growth.
Two rate cuts this year still seem appropriate.
A change in course on rates may be better than waiting.
The US labor market is cooling.

• Trump: We are imposing a 100% tariff on chips, a 100% tariff on all semiconductors coming into the U.S. The only exemptions are for those who commit to building their manufacturing in the U.S.
My special envoy Steve Witkoff just had a very productive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Much progress was made!
No decision yet on where the Putin-Zelensky summit will take place.
Expect lots of additional secondary sanctions on those who buy Russian oil.
We are imposing secondary sanctions on other countries, possibly China.
Putin told Witkoff he wants to meet with Trump - Fox News.
Trump said he would meet next week if it would stop the war.
Trump said he was not aware of any uranium or fertilizer being imported into the U.S. from Russia.

• EU to cut duties on some US fertilizers to zero to replace Russian imports - Euractiv.

• The US will monitor imports of Russian oil by countries and does not rule out taking measures against them – White House.

• Trump signs executive order on additional 25% tariffs against India for oil purchases from Russia — White House.
Tariffs will come into effect on September 17, 2025.

• SCMP: China is unlikely to stop purchasing oil from Russia due to Trump’s threats.

• China is reintroducing anti-Covid measures due to the spread of the Chikugunya virus - BBG.
The Chikugunya virus is transmitted through a mosquito bite.

• US accuses China of violating Nvidia chip exports.
Two Chinese nationals were arrested this week on charges that they illegally shipped tens of millions of dollars worth of Nvidia AI chips to China in violation of US export restrictions.

• India should not buy oil from Russia.
However, China, an adversary and the largest buyer of Russian and Iranian oil, received a 90-day deferment on duties. We cannot turn a blind eye to China's actions and at the same time spoil relations with such a strong and important ally as India - former US Permanent Representative to the UN Nikki Haley criticized Trump's statement on the introduction of high duties on Indian exports.

• Trump's approval rating has dropped to 38%, while 58% of Americans express dissatisfaction with his performance, according to a new UMass Amherst poll. That's down 6 points from April.

• The inauguration of the president took place in Poland.
Karol Nawrocki took the oath and officially became the president of Poland, replacing Andrzej Duda.

• German energy company Uniper SE became the first among European suppliers to receive compensation from Gazprom due to disrupted contracts.

• Some companies have filed arbitration cases seeking compensation of billions of euros from Gazprom for disrupted contracts after 2022.

• Trump will host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House on Friday, where the parties may announce a peace agreement — WP.

• Albania to ban cash
Albania could become the world's first cashless country by 2030, but the plan faces significant hurdles.
Prime Minister Edi Rama has proposed going cashless in order to eliminate the country's huge shadow economy, which is estimated to account for between 29% and 50% of GDP.

U.S. Tariff Fallout, Semiconductor Stocks Fall, Corporate and Geopolitical Events

2025-08-06T05:02:41+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The stock market lost some of its luster yesterday. And that's disappointing for investors who were hoping for a continuation of Monday's rally.
Interestingly, the professional media is flooded with negative news about the stock market, rather than optimistic ones. Perhaps this flood will break the dam and stocks will still fall.
The weakest link now is semiconductors. However, yesterday, sector leaders XLC and XLF also fell. Let's watch the PLTR rocket.
Everything is calm on the markets this morning.

• From economic data to corporate earnings, the expected impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs is finally here for all to see, but stock investors don't seem too worried. Data showed the U.S. services sector began to slow in July amid further employment declines and the biggest rise in input costs in nearly three years. Coupled with Friday's shocking jobs report, that has reignited fears of stagflation and put the Federal Reserve in a tough spot.

• U.S. financial results, while generally upbeat in the second quarter, are starting to show a clearer impact from tariffs. Caterpillar warned that U.S. tariffs could cost it up to $1.5 billion this year, and Taco Bell parent Yum Brands warned of higher costs and lower consumer demand.

Even shares of Advanced Micro Devices, a maker of artificial intelligence chips, reported disappointing data center revenue, sending its shares down 6.6% in after-hours trading.

That's one reason why stock markets have grown cautious: Investors are caught in a battle between continued high incomes and tariffs. Judging by the impressive rally in stocks following the U.S. jobs data, it looks like buying the dip still makes sense.

• OpenAI ShareSale: In another big news story of the day, OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is in early talks about a possible secondary share sale, valuing the company at around $500 billion, according to Reuters.

• In Asia, most stocks fell, but Japan and Australia outperformed, rising about 0.6%. Wall Street futures rebounded from earlier losses, with Nasdaq futures up 0.1% and S&P 500 futures up 0.2%. European stock futures are set to open higher, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.3%.

Exchange rates were little changed and the dollar struggled to recover from a decline caused by Friday's job growth. All eyes were on Trump's nominee to head the Federal Reserve Board.

• Trump said a decision would be made by the end of the week, while ruling out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a candidate to replace current Secretary Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.

• The Treasury market is preparing for an auction of $42 billion in 10-year notes after a three-year auction on Tuesday fell short.

• Indian stocks brace for volatility on Trump tariff threat - BBG
The Indian rupee hit a new record low against the US dollar amid Trump's tariff threats.

• The White House is preparing an executive order that would impose fines on banks for terminating service to customers for political reasons, including conservatives and crypto companies, — WSJ.

• Trump accused JP Morgan and Bank of America of discriminating against him.
Against this backdrop, bank shares fell by an average of 1% yesterday.

• Wall Street's largest brokerage firms are warning clients of growing risks of a stock market decline, - Bloomberg.

• Central banks purchased another 166.5 tons of gold in Q2 2025, 41% more than the 2010–2021 average.
In total for the first half of the year, the figure is already 415 tons, the third-largest volume in history. Demand will remain high: 95% of regulators expect further growth in gold reserves.

• In July, insiders at just 151 S&P 500 companies bought their own shares,
the lowest level since at least 2018.

• Tesla and Musk are being sued for concealing Robotaxi safety risks.
Shareholders have filed a lawsuit accusing them of securities fraud for concealing the risks of self-driving cars, specifically Robotaxi.
The lawsuit comes after tests in June in which self-driving cars exhibited dangerous behavior, including speeding, braking abruptly, and making risky maneuvers.

• Google launches Genie 3 AI model capable of generating interactive environments in real time.

• According to insiders, there is only one month left until the key launches of the iPhone 17.
• September 9 - official announcement and presentation
• September 12 - start of pre-orders
• September 19 - start of retail sales

• Despite the GENIUS Act ban on stablecoin interest payments, Coinbase and PayPal continue to offer rewards on USDC and PYUSD, - Decrypt
Both companies say they are not issuers and that rewards are paid through platform revenue sharing, not interest rates, and are therefore not subject to the ban.

• The SEC has issued interim accounting guidance allowing certain fully dollar-backed stablecoins to be classified as cash equivalents.

• AWS has integrated TON (The Open Network). Now analysts and developers can explore transactions, NFTs, DEX activity and tokens in a structured format for free. The data is generated by the TON-ETL project and updated daily by TON Studio via AWS services (Athena, RDS, EKS).

• Nvidia now has 76-78% of its employees as millionaires, with about half of them worth over $25 million.
The data is the result of a survey of 10% of employees (3,000 out of 30,000).

• Toyota and Honda forecast profit decline on tariffs, yen strength, Reuters
Analysts forecast a 31% drop in Toyota's operating profit and a 36% drop for Honda, making it Toyota's worst quarter in two years.
However, the yen weakened again in July, so the market reaction may be calmer.

• Oil fell to July lows as
markets await clarity from Trump on measures against India and China for buying Russian oil.

• Aramco profits fall for 10th straight quarter on weak oil - BBG
US tariff policy has had limited impact on global oil demand, consumption continues to grow - Saudi Aramco CEO.

• Shares of European companies that missed earnings expectations are falling the most this quarter, according to Goldman research.

• Morgan Stanley raised its target price on PLTR to $155 from $98, leaving its rating at “Equalweight.”
Analysts are impressed with the Q2 results, citing Palantir’s unique capabilities in data integration, building AI ontologies, automating workflows, and efficiently implementing solutions into production.
PLTR shares rose 8% yesterday after the report to a new all-time high of $176.

• Private capital is losing momentum. In the first quarter, the volume of attraction fell by 35% y/y, and private lending could show the worst year since 2018, - Bloomberg.

• For the first time in 6 years, OpenAI has released two interesting free models in open source.
Which can be installed on a home computer.

• Elon Musk's xAI launched Grok Imagine, an image and video generator with a "spicy" mode.
SuperGrok subscribers ($30/month) were given the opportunity to create "explicit" images and videos.

• Durov: The first public company investing in TON has appeared on the US stock exchange — VERB shares.
The company will change its name to TON Strategy.
Current Mcap is $27 million.
According to Durov, the company will invest $558 million in Toncoin and will increase its positions. TON has already become the economic basis of Telegram, it is used for advertising, payments and NFT.
/ Lottery ticket or trash?

• Chinese companies choose the US for IPOs - Reuters.
In the first half of 2025, 36 Chinese companies entered the US stock exchanges, which is already close to the record figure of 64 IPOs for all of 2024.
The vast majority of them are doing so through SPACs - special purpose vehicles for quickly entering the market without the traditional lengthy IPO process.

• PG&E (PCG) has risen 8% in two sessions.
The company has pledged no more dilution to fund its $63 billion investment program, using existing rates and debt to fund it.
It expects new grid projects to even lower customer bills starting in 2027 — despite a likely increase in overall electricity costs in California.

• Intel (INTC, +3.5%) was downgraded to 'BBB' (negative outlook)
by Fitch, citing weak PC demand, intense competition from AMD (AMD) and NXP (NXPI), and heavy capital expenditures on new factories. To regain its rating, Intel needs to increase market share and margins.

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, +1%) is redistributing its portfolio.
It bought back $106 million in Sirius XM (SIRI) shares (the package exceeded 124 million shares), and sold $230 million in DaVita (DVA) shares on the eve of its report.

• Pfizer (PFE, +5%) was a pleasant surprise.
Earnings were $0.78 per share (+$0.21 vs. consensus), revenue was $14.65 billion (+8% YoY). It raised its full-year forecast and confirmed its cost-cutting plan to $4 billion per year from 2027.

• Duke Energy (DUK, 0%) is selling 19.7% of its Florida business to Brookfield (BN) for $6 billion.
The proceeds will be used to increase capital expenditures in Florida and pay down the holding company's debt. Second-quarter profit beat expectations; medium-term outlook remains unchanged.

• Alcon (ALC, -3%) is acquiring STAAR Surgical (STAA) for $28/share (51% premium, deal ≈ $1.5B).
Expected to close in 6-12 months; promises to add to earnings starting in the second year of the acquisition. STAA shares are already up 45%.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT, +18%) raised its 2025 sales forecast to $3.1 billion
after winning a $2.6 billion contract with the US Navy for reactor modules.
In Q2, revenue was +12%, EBITDA +16%.

• Axon (AXON, +16%): Demand for cloud platforms and AI analytics for police boosted Q2 revenue by 33%.
The company raised its 2025 sales guidance to $2.73 billion and announced its largest contract with a megacity client.

• Exxon Mobil (XOM, 0%) is returning to Libya.
It has agreed with the NOC to jointly explore offshore blocks and the Sirte Basin.

• First Quantum (FQVLF) to receive $1 billion from Royal Gold (RGLD) in the form of a gold stream to the Kansanshi deposit (Zambia).
Royal will receive ≈12.5 thousand ounces in 2025; FQM strengthens liquidity without new debt.

• TSMC (TSM) sues employees over 2nm tech leaks,
says 'zero tolerance'

• Synchrony (SYF) to acquire Lowe's (LOW) commercial card portfolio ($0.8B) Transaction closes in H1 2026; SYF will be the exclusive issuer.

• SentinelOne (S) acquires Prompt Security
to provide risk management for generative AI for the Singularity platform.

• Figma (FIG) is falling after the IPO.
The stock started on July 31 at $85. On August 1, it rose to almost $143. And in the morning it is already trading at $78.
Analysts recommend “holding” - the boom after the IPO is exhausted, the valuation looks overpriced.

• AMD shares fall 6% in the morning after the report.

Other stocks this morning after earnings:
ALAB +16%.
ANET +13%.
CPNG +2%.
AMGN -1%.
RIVN -5%.
MOS -7%.
SNAP -15%.
SMCI -16%.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- Eurozone retail sales for June
- US 10-year Treasury bond auction
- Disney, Uber, McDonald's earnings results

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Japan's labor ministry has proposed raising the average minimum hourly wage by ¥63 to ¥1,118 ($7.60 an hour at current exchange rates).
The 6% increase would be the biggest since 1978 and surpass last year's record of 5%.

• Schiff: “A rate cut in September is far from guaranteed, with inflation data likely to be higher than expected by the next Fed meeting. Moreover, the fact that markets are rallying on rate cut expectations only makes such a scenario less likely. Stronger inflation outweighs weaker employment growth.”
Goldman Sachs points out that the market is underestimating the potential for a Fed rate cut.
The bank expects three 25 bp cuts in September, October and December, with two more in the first half of 2026.
A delay in the cuts is possible if inflation rises or the labor market recovers.
Minus 50 bp in September is also possible if unemployment rises again.

• US Trade Balance (June) = -$60.2B (expected -$62.6B / previously -$71.70B)
US (July):
S&P Composite PMI = 55.1 (expected 54.6 / previously 52.9).
S&P Services PMI = 55.7 (expected 55.2 / previously 52.9).
US ISM Services PMI (July) = 50.1 (expected 51.5 / previously 50.8).

• Eurozone Business Activity Indicators:
Eurozone Services PMI (Jul) = 51.0 (expected 51.2/ pop. 50.5).
Germany Services PMI (Jul) = 50.6 (expected 50.1/ pop. 49.7).

• UK:
S&P Global Services PMI (July) = 51.8 (exp. 51.2/pop. 52.8).
Japan (July).
Services PMI = 53.6 (prev. 51.7).
Composite PMI = 51.6 (prev. 51.5).

Eurozone inflation indicators:
PPI m/m = 0.8% (exp. 0.9% / pop. -0.6%).
y/y = 0.6% (exp. 0.5% / pop. 0.3%).

• Denmark has cut its GDP growth forecast fourfold due to problems at its largest company, Novo Nordisk.
Last week, Novo Nordisk cut its sales and profit forecast for the second time this year due to increased competition and the appearance of analogues of its popular weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic in the United States.

• Trump:
- "If energy prices drop low enough, Putin will stop killing"
- "India is the country with the highest tariffs, in the next 24 hours the US will raise tariffs on Indian goods because of its purchase of Russian oil"
- "I can use the Kugler vacancy to pick the next Fed chairman. Warsch is a strong candidate. Hassett too, but there are two others I'm considering"
- "A 35% tariff on the EU if it defaults"
- "A small tariff on pharmaceuticals first, which could rise to 150-250% in a year."
- "I'll have an announcement soon on semiconductors and chips."
- Trump said he would like to, but probably won't, run for US president again.
- "They [the EU] gave us $600 billion to invest in whatever we want. There's nothing to pay back. It's not a loan."

• The EU is preparing sanctions against China for supplying UAV parts to Russia - Politico.
China, following India, has rejected US demands to stop buying oil from Russia, - AP, citing a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
/ What will India itself say? If China turns out to be the only major financier of Russia's war, it may become more accommodating.

• The US and Russia have parity in the number of nuclear warheads, but the US has more deployed carriers and spends seven times more on nuclear forces, Forbes reports, citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

• The United States is introducing visa deposits for tourists and businessmen from a number of countries.
Under the new pilot program, applicants from countries with high rates of visa overstays will have to post a deposit of $5,000 to $15,000 to obtain a B-1 or B-2 visa. The deposit will be returned if the foreigner leaves the country in a timely manner.

• Many Democrats describe their party as “weak” or “ineffective,” according to a new poll that finds growing pessimism among Democratic supporters — The Hill.

• Fearing competition from China and Russia, the US announces construction of a nuclear reactor on the Moon — Politico. According to NASA, these measures are aimed at ensuring US leadership in the new phase of the space race.

• Moldova. The leader of the separatist Gagauzia region, Eugenia Gutsul, has been sentenced to seven years in a general regime penal colony.
She was found guilty in a case of illegally financing the Shor party, which she represented.

• Iranian authorities intend to denominate the national currency, removing four zeros from the rial.
The parliament's economic committee has already approved the general provisions of the bill, which stipulates that the new currency will retain its previous name, and one new rial will be equal to 10 thousand of the current ones. It is divided into 100 gerans.

• Panama is cutting off oxygen to the Russian “shadow fleet”: tankers older than 15 years will no longer be registered.
According to a statement from the Maritime Administration of Panama, starting in August the country will stop registering oil tankers older than 15 years.
In addition, every three months the Maritime Administration of Panama will conduct additional inspections for compliance with certification requirements of all vessels sailing under the Panamanian flag.
And this is the second largest registrar of commercial vessels in the world.

• The Japanese government is finally ending decades of clampdowns on rice production.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said farmers will now be encouraged to plant more to flexibly respond to demand and ensure a stable supply.
/ Humanity has enormous potential for growth, development, and improved quality of life as AI replaces bureaucrats around the world. Will it get worse?

Fed rate cut as early as September and possible replacement of Chairman Powell, stock market news of companies and geopolitics

2025-08-05T05:10:02+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The stock market returned to growth yesterday: stock indices rose by 1-2%. At the same time, US government bonds and gold also rose in price, and the dollar fell. This indicates the presence of dollar liquidity.
The mood is also optimistic.
Growth stocks, led by AI chips, were the leaders in growth.
Everything is calm on futures this morning.

• Markets are struggling to see the bright side of bad news out of the U.S., expecting the disappointing data to kick-start the economic “rocket engine” of Federal Reserve rate cuts that President Donald Trump is craving. The chance of a rate cut in September is now about 94%, up from 63% last week, according to CME Fedwatch. Market participants expect at least two quarter-percentage-point cuts by the end of the year.

The odds rose sharply after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data on Friday sent stock markets tumbling and Trump fired the messenger, firing the head of labor statistics and promising to replace her within days.

Institutional independence in the US is becoming a short-term bet. The early departure of Fed Chair Adriana Kugler will allow Trump to choose her successor, heightening fears about the intrusion of partisanship into the staid world of central bank policy.

• Asian markets followed Wall Street's gains, with MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan rising 0.4%. South Korea's Kospi rose 1%, while Vietnamese shares traded near a record high.

• Asian resilience: Data today from the region's two largest economies showed the resilience of their services sectors amid the negative impact of Trump's chaotic imposition of tariffs on trading partners' goods.

In Japan, S&P Global's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 53.6 in July from 51.7 in June, the biggest gain since February. China's services sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than a year last month.

• A number of purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for July are due to be released across Europe today.

• The second-quarter earnings season in the U.S. is drawing to a close, but investors are still eagerly awaiting reports this week from major players including Walt Disney and Caterpillar.

Stock futures pointed to gains in European and U.S. markets, with pan-regional Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.13% and S&P 500 e-minis futures up 0.14%.

• Hong Kong-listed China ETFs see record inflows amid stock correction - BBG

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) has amassed a record 30% of its total assets in cash, the highest level in the history of Warren Buffett's company.
/ But the shine on the Buffett name is fading. BRK shares fell 3% yesterday after its quarterly earnings report, which is traditionally released on the weekend, while the broader market rose 2%.

• The Boeing Defense union of 3,200 workers is ready to strike for the first time since 1996.
Boeing (BA, +0.2%) said it is prepared for a strike and has fully implemented a backup plan.

• China opens door to Brazilian coffee after US tariff strike - Reuters
After the US imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, China quickly allowed 183 new Brazilian companies to enter its market.

• Xiaomi has unveiled an open AI voice model, the “MidasHenglm-7b.”
It complements its automotive and home technologies, further intensifying competition in the field of creating AI tools for more than just text, - Bloomberg.

• Altman: “We have a lot of launches planned for the next few months—new models, products, features, and more.
We ask for your understanding if there are any disruptions. Despite some challenges, we are confident that you will like what we have in store for you.”

• AI with human cognitive abilities may appear in 5-10 years—CEO of DeepMind (Google's AI division).
/ Will it also have emotional intelligence? If so, the first to suffer will be Only Fans models. And some countries will stop receiving taxes from these models.

• Apple (AAPL) is working on a simplified alternative to ChatGPT—focused on accessing the world's knowledge through Apple products like Siri, Safari, and Spotlight—ET.
/ Apple's problem is a long-standing grudge against Nvidia. As a result, Apple doesn't buy Nvidia's AI chips, and other chips are holding it back. So human grudges and decisions are costing AAPL shareholders billions.

• Tether plans to launch its own Plasma blockchain, which will have zero fees for USDT transactions.
/ Currently, 80% of Tether transactions take place on three blockchains - Tron (TRC-20), Ethereum (ERC-20), BNB Chain (BEP-20).

• Decentralized applications (DApps) on Solana generated $1.6 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025,
4x more than the same period in 2024.

• Cryptocurrencies will add $30 billion to the gaming market - analysts.
By 2028, the global gaming market may grow by more than $30 billion thanks to the introduction of cryptocurrencies, according to the Casino Global Market Report 2024.
In particular, the segment of crypto casinos and decentralized platforms is growing.

• Musk: “Many strong engineers from Meta have already joined and continue to join xAI – and without compensation.”
/ Zuckerberg “poaches” AI specialists from OpenAI. And Musk “poaches” engineers from Meta?
We live in interesting times.

• Tesla's general meeting approved a compensation package for Musk in the amount of 96 million shares ($29 billion).
The meeting itself is on November 6.
The new agreement on compensation for Musk removes uncertainty around Tesla, - Wedbush.
TSLA +2%.

• Goldman: OPEC+ to suspend oil production increase due to rising inventories in OECD countries.

• Google (Alphabet) has become the most profitable company in the world—$116 billion in net profit for the year.
/ At the same time, the company employs only 183 thousand people.

• BP has discovered its largest oil and gas discovery in 25 years off the coast of Brazil.

• Non-Mag7 earnings are falling. Bank of America estimates that annual earnings growth for investment-grade companies in the U.S. (excluding energy and financials) is +3.7%.
However, if you exclude the top 7, earnings are down 1.0%, further evidence that the bulk of the growth is coming from just a handful of tech giants.

• Thousands of hotels are suing Booking.com (BKNG, +1.7%) for 20 years of damages.
More than 10,000 European hotels have filed a class action lawsuit against the online travel portal seeking compensation for forced pricing from 2004 to 2024.
During those years, hotels were not allowed to offer rooms on their own websites cheaper than Booking.com.
The lawsuit follows a 2024 ruling by the European Court of Justice that found the so-called best price rules to be a violation of antitrust laws.

• Verb Technology announced a $558 million private placement
to launch the first publicly traded company with a treasury strategy on TON.
Investors include Kingsway Capital, Vy Capital, Blockchaincom, and Ribbit Capital.
VERB +115%.

• Peter Thiel-backed cryptocurrency exchange Bullish has filed for a U.S. IPO, Reuters reports.
Ticker BLSH.

• Lyft (LYFT, +3%) partners with Baidu to launch robotaxis in Europe.
Flying taxi operator Joby Aviation (JOBY, +19%) will acquire Blade Air Mobility’s (BLDE, +17%) passenger business for $150 million
/ Rare Win-Win.

• CTAs start to close EURUSD longs.
BofA analysis shows that the most aggressive CTAs have started to close overly long positions, but the majority of market participants are still long.

• RTX Corp. (RTX, +0.4%) won a $50 billion/2020 DLA umbrella deal
for logistics across all DoD branches, cementing its status as a key defense supplier.

• CoreCard (CCRD, -0.2%): Apple (AAPL) may move its credit card to JPMorgan (JPM)
→ risk losing a major customer; CCRD is also acquiring Euronet (EEFT).

• Boeing (BA) has signed an $883 million contract with the Army through 2030 to support cargo systems.

• VinFast (VFS, +2.4%) invests $500 million in a plant in India (150 thousand EV/year) → entry into South Asia and MEA.

• UBS (UBS) completes Credit Suisse acquisition, pays DOJ $300 million; reserves return to Q3 earnings

• Energizer (ENR, +27%) revenue +3.4% to $725 million, margin 44.8%.

• Wayfair (W, +13%) EPS $0.87 (> cons. by $0.54), revenue $3.27 billion, sales in the US +5.3%.

• PLTR shares are up 4% this morning after the report.

• Demand for options to hedge the risk of the S&P 500 falling 10% over the next 60 days reached its highest level since May 2023.

Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- French industrial production for June
- Purchasing managers' indices for July in France, Germany, the eurozone and the UK
- European earnings: Diageo, BP, Deutsche Post, Telecom Italia
- U.S. earnings: Caterpillar, Pfizer, Yum! Brands, Marriott International, Fox Corp.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• The EU expects Trump to announce tariff cuts on cars and exemptions on some industrial goods such as aircraft parts this week - BBG.

• The Swiss government has said it is not currently considering any retaliatory measures against the United States and intends to offer the United States more attractive terms for a trade agreement./ Trump demands that Switzerland first reduce drug prices.

• China is cutting off supplies of critical rare earth minerals to Western weapons contractors, crippling U.S. defense production.
More than 80,000 parts for the U.S. Defense Department depend on minerals controlled by China. / It is a sign of worsening U.S.-China trade relations. And is seen as a response to threats of secondary sanctions for China's purchase of energy from Russia.

• Brazil and India ignore Trump's threats and will not stop buying oil from Russia, writes the Chinese Global Times.
For China, and for India, buying Russian oil at a big discount due to sanctions against Russia has become real "gold". Thanks to cheap hydrocarbons, the economies of these countries receive a non-market advantage over other countries.
However, the ability of India and Brazil to resist US pressure is severely limited. And China is blackmailing by refusing to supply rare earth metals.

• The head of Brazil's Supreme Court, who is under US sanctions, has placed Bolsonaro under house arrest./ Trump will clearly not like this. But there's nothing he can do.

• India's largest refiner Indian Oil Corp (IOC) has bought 7 million barrels of crude for September delivery from the United States, Canada and the Middle East,
several market sources told Reuters.
Two sources said the volumes were higher than usual, partly to replace Russian crude.

• Trump sets new record:
US collected $29.6 billion in tariffs in July, the most ever.
Trump said revenue from new import duties could be redistributed as dividends to low- and middle-income citizens.

• "China is preparing to invade Taiwan," Taiwan's vice foreign minister told Sky News.
/ It has been preparing for a long time. But the peak of China's ability to conquer Taiwan militarily is approaching or has already arrived. For now, the West is slowly but surely trying to learn the lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war.

• A protracted shortage of ore raw materials has forced Chinese copper smelters to cut production from record levels
as the government steps up efforts to reduce excess capacity in the industry - Bloomberg

• The Guardian has questioned Trump's mental health.
The publication's journalist Adam Gebbutt notes that the US president constantly loses the thread of a conversation, forgets facts and makes senseless speech.
Psychiatrist Richard Friedman said that with such distracting and repetitive speech, he would send the patient for a neuropsychiatric examination. The White House rejects any doubts about Trump's mental health. Trump really does manage to say directly opposite things in one statement.
But so far it looks more like incontinence, when, on the one hand, he says what he wants to say, and on the other, what others want to hear from him.

• Turkey is preparing to sign a comprehensive military cooperation agreement with Syria.
It envisages the establishment of three Turkish military bases in the country - Aydinlik.
/ Turkey has ousted Russia from Syria. Erdogan's small victory over Putin.

• The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the Israeli hostages.
Israeli television channel Channel 12 reports that the Israeli government has decided to occupy the Gaza Strip permanently. Hamas is the main culprit of the famine in the Gaza Strip, said the head of the German Chancellery, Torsten Frei.
“Currently, much more humanitarian aid is being delivered to the Gaza Strip every day than is needed to prevent famine.”

• 59% of Germans are not prepared to defend Germany with weapons in the event of an attack.
The Forsa sociological institute conducted a survey among 1,002 residents of the FRG, the results of the survey were published by the RND media group.
However, in 2025, recruitment into the German army increased by 28% compared to the same period in 2024.
There are currently approximately 183,100 active military personnel in the Bundeswehr, which is about 2,000 more than last year.

• As Trump loses support, UN cuts spending by more than $700 million, plans reform — Bloomberg.
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ plan calls for 20% cuts in spending and headcount, leaving the $3.7 billion budget at its lowest since 2018. About 3,000 jobs would be cut.

• Trump Advisor Hassett:
BLS data has become extremely unreliable.
We need to modernize employment data by making it transparent.
Significant changes in data require clear explanations.
Ray Dalio also supported the need for changes to the BLS.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Powell's replacement is on the horizon.
"We are putting together a very high-quality list of candidates. And remember, there are two openings."

• In Moldova, Dodon has united with other pro-Russian leaders: they have been allowed to participate in the elections.
In Moldova, the Central Electoral Commission has officially registered the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (Blocul Electoral Patriotic – BEP) to participate in the parliamentary elections. The union includes the Socialist Party of pro-Russian ex-President Igor Dodon, the Heart of Moldova party, and the Future of Moldova party.
In Moldova, the license for gas supplies to Gazprom subsidiaries has been revoked
Moldova has revoked the license for gas supplies to Moldovagaz and transferred this function to the state-owned Energocom.

• South Korea dismantles "propaganda assets" on border with North Korea - Yonhap News.
The department explained that this step is part of "practical measures" aimed at reducing tensions in inter-Korean relations. At the same time, Seoul emphasizes that such actions will not affect the combat readiness of the armed forces.

• In Helsinki, roads were narrowed and trees were planted in such a way as to create inconvenience for drivers. The result: not a single accident in a year - Politico.
In addition, the capital of Finland reduced the maximum permitted speed to 30 km/h, installed 70 new speed cameras and increased police surveillance.
/ Useful experience? What do you think?

• China Services PMI above expectations = 52.6 (expected 50.4, pop. 50.6).

Corporate news and fundamental reviews, new Fed actions and geopolitics

2025-08-04T05:40:17+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Markets are quiet this morning, with U.S. stock index futures up 0.2%, the VIX falling below 20 and Bitcoin back near $115,000. There was still some buying to be done on Monday, with U.S. and European stock futures rising along with the dollar. The Nikkei was slow to react to Friday's Wall Street crash and the yen's surge, but the rest of Asia fared better.

Fed funds futures started out by pricing in a 65 basis point rate cut by December, but that figure is now back to 60 basis points. That's still a far cry from the 33 basis points seen before Friday's weak U.S. jobs report, and there's still an 83% chance of a cut in September. In fact, the 25 basis point drop in two-year yields on Friday was essentially the market cutting the Fed's rate on them, given that U.S. borrowing costs are tied to yields, not the funds rate.

Ten-year yields also fell sharply by 14 basis points but found resistance around 4.20%, a level they have repeatedly tried to break below since October last year.

• Over the long term, the downward revision of wages has seriously undermined the US claim to economic supremacy and the dollar's reputation for exceptionalism. That reputation has also been tarnished by President Trump's firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an institution with an invaluable reputation for impeccable integrity that has won the trust of investors around the world.

Or at least that’s how it used to be. Now Trump says he will pick a new head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the next few days. Will it be an independent statistician committed to providing reliable data, or a Trump loyalist eager to please his master? U.S. assets enjoy a trust premium that will be very difficult to maintain as Trump bends every level of government to his will.

• Trump also just floated the idea of using some of the excess tariff profits to pay “dividends” to a select group of lucky people — no doubt with special checks emblazoned with the “TRUMP” logo. So you tax everyone who buys imported goods, whether they have a choice or not, and then use some of the proceeds to pay out money to whoever you please, in your own name rather than the government that actually does the work.

Speaking of tariffs, a U.S. appeals court heard arguments late last week on the legality of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs and was inclined to uphold the original ruling that the tariffs were illegal. That ruling would likely still be upheld by the Supreme Court, which typically upholds unchecked presidential power. However, if the tariffs are found to be illegal, not only would all existing or pending trade agreements be invalidated, but the Treasury Department would have to return all the money it collected. Wouldn’t that be fun…

• The recent 30% rally from April lows has fueled optimism, but historical patterns suggest caution is needed.
August and September are typically weak months for the stock market, and this August fits a rare but telling scenario: the year after an election during a second presidential term. There have been six such cases since 1950 — all of them negative in August, with an average decline of 3.4%.

• China has officially banned cryptocurrency trading, mining and related services, citing financial risks, concerns about capital outflow and negative impact on the environment.

• Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) wrote off $3.76 billion of the value of its stake in Kraft Heinz - Reuters.
The agency noted that this move is an admission that a decade-long investment has not paid off.
Operating profit in the second quarter fell by 4%, to $11.16 billion from $11.6 billion a year earlier. Net profit for April-June fell from $30.35 to $12.37 billion. The volume of cash amounted to a near-record $344.1 billion.
Berkshire Hathaway's operating profit fell by 4% y/y in Q2 2025.
The company again issued a stern warning about Trump's tariffs and their potential impact on various areas of the company's business.
The amount of cash on the company's balance sheet remains at a record level: Buffett still believes that now is not the best time to buy.
In Q2 2025, Berkshire was again a net seller of shares and did not repurchase its shares.

• OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production by 547,000 bpd in September.
Saudi Arabia and its partners have agreed to increase production by 547,000 bpd next month.
The move allows OPEC+ to complete its plan to return 2.2 million barrels per day to the market a year ahead of schedule, - Bloomberg.

• S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth for Q2 is +9% y/y, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of +4% at the start of the earnings season, according to Goldman Sachs. EPS growth forecast for August-26 to August-25 is +16% y/y.

• US spot Ethereum ETPs attracted a record $5.4 billion in net inflows in July.
Overall, ETPs now hold ~6 million ETH (~5% of circulating supply) worth $21.5 billion. Of that, only an estimated $1-2 billion is hedge fund arbitrage, with the rest being long-term capital - Grayscale
Inflows into spot BTC ETFs continue to slow, with aggregate inflows still hovering near record levels - Farside

• Total U.S. liquid petroleum product production in May set a new record of 20.96 million barrels per day, revised upward from the previous estimate of 20.60 million b/d, EIA said.

• In Spain, a survey was conducted among teenagers aged 12 to 16 years - it showed that many of them perceive OnlyFans as a real opportunity to earn money.
The reason is said to be advertising of models and agencies on social networks - it gets into the feeds of absolutely all users, including minors.

• Shares in Europe's largest banks have risen to their highest since 2008,
with HSBC hitting an all-time high and Barclays and Santander at their highest since the crisis.
After years of stagnation, banks are once again attracting investors amid an improving macroeconomic environment.

• Capital expenditure on AI is becoming the new “wartime economy.”
The rate of investment in this technology may even surpass the railroad in the 19th century.

• Earnings volatility: After about two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies reported earnings, the index rose 10.3%, compared with the 5% expected on June 27, according to FactSet.

• Goldman Sachs advised clients to buy copper the day before the sharp drop in prices - BBG.

• As the Fed began raising rates in early 2022, foreign private investors began buying more U.S. Treasuries despite rising hedging costs.
They are responding to higher bond yields, while demand from central banks and sovereign wealth funds is not sensitive to yield levels, - Apollo.

• Musk suggested that with the development of general AI (AGI), the world will turn into a simulation, and humans will become secondary characters.

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) reduced its cash reserves by $3.6 billion in the second quarter,
from $347.7 billion to $344.1 billion.
Of this, $243.6 billion was invested in short-term U.S. government bonds.

Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- Swiss CPI for July.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Democrats don't want to see Kamala Harris run for president in 2028 - Politico.
There are doubts within the party about her chances of winning both the primaries and the general election.

• Trump plans to build a grand ballroom in the White House that will cost $200 million.
The project has been criticized in the US - The Hill.

• Poland is becoming the most armed state in Europe. Today, Warsaw announced the purchase of another 180 South Korean K2 tanks — Euronews.
The contract is valued at $6.7 billion. At the same time, 61 combat vehicles will be manufactured locally. Surprising given the obvious tendency for heavy equipment to be ineffective in modern warfare.

• Prices for tobacco products in the EU will increase by 139%. The EU plans to increase the minimum excise tax: this applies to electronic cigarettes, heated tobacco, nicotine pouches and other products. In Ukraine, the corresponding price increase is expected gradually in the period from 2026 to 2028.

• India has not instructed its state-owned refineries to stop buying oil from Russia, Bloomberg reports.
However, the agency's sources say the refineries have been instructed to develop plans to buy non-Russian oil.

India Pays a High Price for Friendship with Russia: Trump Starts Getting Closer to Pakistan
Relations between the US and India have deteriorated sharply due to Trump’s introduction of 25% tariffs and threats of sanctions for purchasing Russian oil.
Analysts predict that New Delhi will take a tougher stance in its dialogue with Washington and will seek greater strategic autonomy.

• Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene spoke out against Washington's continued funding of the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza,
saying that further U.S. involvement in the conflicts could lead to a loss of voters for the Republican Party.

• NATO is considering the deployment of a corps of troops near the borders of the Russian Federation. If the decision is positive, the forces will be based in the Estonian city of Pärnu.

• A multi-thousand-strong rally for the release of hostages at any cost took place in Tel Aviv.
According to various estimates, between 10,000 and 60,000 people gathered at the so-called “hostage square” near the Tel Aviv Museum of Fine Arts.

• Elon Musk reportedly spent $21 billion of the US budget on cutting costs.
His DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) was supposed to optimize government spending, but instead 20,000 officials were sent on an 8-month leave, and some were even paid not to work.
This is a well-known practice in the US when laying off contract workers early - one-time payments can exceed the short-term effect of savings on salaries.

• In Germany they joke that the temperature in the country is +40, but after all taxes and deductions it is +15.

• FBI hid Trump's name in Epstein case documents - Bloomberg.
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation has redacted some documents in the child sex trafficking case involving financier Jeffrey Epstein.

• India won't give up Russian oil despite Trump's threats.
Indian officials said the country will continue to buy cheap Russian oil despite Trump's talk of possible sanctions.

• New UN report says almost no one reads UN reports - Reuters

• Musk called on Ireland and other EU countries to leave the bloc.
"All countries should do it, in my opinion. It's destroying democracy in Europe."

• AI transparency requirements have come into force in the European Union.
Under the new rules, AI developers in the EU are required to disclose how their models work and the data used to train them. Models that are considered potential sources of risk must document security measures. The innovations are aimed at protecting intellectual property and the rights of authors and content owners.

• German companies are dissatisfied with their new staff: some cannot read or write.
According to a survey by the Federal Association of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), more than a quarter of companies (26%) plan to reduce the number of vocational training programs in 2025 - the economic crisis in Germany has also affected this area. But it is not just the economic situation. Almost half of those surveyed said that they were unable to find suitable candidates for vacancies in their companies last year.

• Fed Governor Lisbeth Kugler has announced she is leaving her post at the central bank.
Trump: 'Kugler resigned over disagreement with Powell.'
Trump says jobs data was 'rigged' to make him look bad
'The jobs numbers are now being compiled by a Biden appointee. I have instructed my team to fire her.'

• The labor market is not as bad as the NFP shows, - WSJ analyst.
The index of total weekly wages, a good indicator of nominal income growth, rose by 5.3% y/y in July (compared to 4.5% in June).
This was due to an increase in the number of hours worked with a stable increase in hourly wages. During the year, this indicator fluctuated in a fairly narrow range - between 4.5% and 5.3%, which is in line with the norms typical of the pre-pandemic period.
And the three-month annual dynamics, which was quite volatile, recovered to 4.6% in July - after declining to 2.8% in June, the lowest level for the entire post-pandemic period.

• Is the U.S. on the Verge of a Debt Spiral? — Fidelity.
Government spending has risen from $500 billion to $1.2 trillion since COVID. The only way to avoid a budget squeeze is to continue to run deficits. But that's the path to a debt spiral.

• Japan has addressed a similar situation with zero rates and yield curve control (YCC), limiting debt servicing costs to 4% of GDP. The US could see a similar scenario in 2026 with new Fed leadership.

• The probability of human extinction due to artificial intelligence is at least 95%.
This was stated by the head of the non-profit organization Machine Intelligence Research Institute, Nate Soares, who previously worked at Microsoft and Google.

2.3% - average investor return for July and 12.5% since the beginning of 2025 under the management of Masters

2025-08-01T07:08:34+00:00

Tariffs in the US are rising, but the profit of Masters' clients is growing faster!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

2.3% for July 2025.
12.5% since the beginning of 2025.

Profits may vary by tenths of one percent for different investors.
Each investor sees their account balance and all open trading positions online.

{loadposition reports}

Donald Trump Tariff Deadline, Awaiting US Employment Data, Corporate News & Geopolitics

2025-08-01T05:27:53+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The tariff deadline arrived, and President Donald Trump took action, slapping new tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, including some with which he has no trade agreements. The rates were set at 35% for Canada, 25% for India, 20% for Taiwan and 19% for Thailand. Switzerland got a whopping 39% — one of the highest — raising the question: What does Trump have against the Swiss? For not buying enough American chocolate or watches?

Arguably, most of the tariffs are lower than those imposed on April 2, which sent markets plummeting. In addition, major trade deals were struck with Japan and the European Union, while negotiations with China and Mexico are still ongoing. That’s probably why the market reaction was much more muted this time around. Of course, most Asian stocks fell, but only slightly. South Korea was an exception, with its shares down more than 3%, partly due to the removal of domestic tax breaks .

Taiwan's president said the 20 percent levy was temporary and expected to be further reduced once an agreement was reached.

• Wall Street and European stocks appeared unfazed by the tariff news. EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 0.3%. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, led by a 6% drop in Amazon shares after its earnings missed expectations.

• Now, following the tariff news, the eurozone's preliminary CPI is due out later today and a small rate cut from 2.0% year-on-year to 1.9% in July is expected. Markets have priced in only half of the European Central Bank's rate cut by early next year.

And then it all comes down to the wait for payrolls data, which will be crucial to hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, now estimated at just 40%, down from 75% a month ago.

Forecasts are based on a 110,000 gain in July, with the unemployment rate likely to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. Any unexpected improvements could reduce the likelihood of growth next month, giving dollar bulls another reason to rally.

• The U.S. dollar is on track for its best week in nearly three years, rising 2.5% against its peers, confirming its recent uptrend from a three-year low. It was supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve that held off on easing policy over tariff risks. Indeed, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation rose slightly overnight, suggesting some impact from the tariffs.

• Even the excellent market reaction to the META and MSFT reports did not help to keep stock indices from closing the last day of July within 0-1% of their decline. The XLK and XLV sectors, as well as TSLA, were the leaders in the decline.

In the morning, the markets are generally neutral.
However, Bitcoin falls to $115 thousand. Another cryptocurrency is also in correction.
August is considered a weak month for the stock market seasonally. Therefore, the market is nervous.
Today, data on the US labor market will be published. We are following the news and the market reaction.

• White House: Trump Backs Congress' Stock Trading Ban
White House: Nancy Pelosi Rightfully Faces Criticism: Her Net Worth Reaches $431 Million, Her Stock Portfolio Is Up 70% in 2024

• Trump demands major US drug makers lower drug prices within 60 days
or face consequences.

• London stock market rises on Rolls-Royce earnings and rate cut hopes,
while FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 gain despite fresh US tariffs and falling copper prices.

• Barclays notes that retail investors are currently the main driver of growth in the US stock market.
OTC trading volumes remain near record levels and are significantly higher than in 2021. The situation is reminiscent of the retail “mania” period of the same year: the market growth is again mainly provided by lower-quality companies.

• South Korean auto industry could lose $5 billion due to US tariffs - BBG.

• The US has called stablecoins a competitive response to the Chinese equivalent of SWIFT, based on the yuan (CIPS).

• Tether has issued $20 billion in USD₮ since the beginning of the year.
Having become one of the largest holders of US government debt with $127 billion in Treasuries, net income was about $4.9 billion in Q2 2025.
Schiff argues that stablecoins do not increase demand for Treasuries, but only redistribute it.
Money from money markets flows into stablecoins, but buyers lose interest to issuers. Issuers buy only short-term bonds, which increases long-term yields, affecting mortgage rates.

• SEC announces the launch of the Crypto Initiative project.
To modernize the rules of the securities market and transition the markets to blockchain.

• Gold demand remains strong despite record high prices - WGC
Gold demand up 3% in Q2

• Ford (F) said Trump tariffs will cost the company about $2 billion this year.
Ford shifts focus to Ford Pro: EBIT-25 guide $6.5-7.5 billion, cuts investment in future EVs.

• Tesla (TSLA) launched a ride-hailing service in San Francisco.

• AbbVie (ABBV) in talks to buy Gilgamesh Pharma for ~$1 billion, another move after losing Humira patent.

• Cognizant (CTSH) raised guidance by 25.
Q2 revenue +7.2%, six AI contracts worth over $100 million.

• Q2 Holdings (QTWO) raised guidance.
On demand for fraud prevention and artificial intelligence solutions; Q2 revenue +13%, EBITDA $46 million.

• Qualcomm (QCOM) targets $22B in auto+IoT by 2029,
betting on AI chips; Q3 revenue was $10.4B

• Biogen (BIIB) +8% pre-open.
Leqembi brings in revenue, EPS-25 raised to $15.5-16.

• Bristol-Myers (BMY) beat Q2 estimates,
increasing sales-25 but lowering EPS due to expenses from the BioNTech deal.

• Carvana (CVNA) expects 3 million vehicle sales
and 13.5% margin over 5-10 years; Q2 revenue +42%.

• TTM Tech (TTMI) targets Q3 $690-730M
Q2 +21% on A&D, data center and networks.

• BTC open interest on CME reached $18.7 billion, the highest level since January 2025.
Bitcoin futures positions remain predominantly short.

• Microsoft surpassed the $4 trillion market cap mark after a strong report,
becoming the second company in the world after Nvidia, which entered the “club” with a market value of more than $4 trillion.

• Figma (FIG) shares have soared 250% since the IPO, setting a new record for large IPOs.
They are up another 24% in the post-market. The IPO was at $33. Trading opened at $85. FIG is now at $143.
The company's fwd P/S has exceeded 80x ($83 billion Mcap with expected revenue of $1-1.1 billion). Is this a bubble or a new valuation paradigm?
Renaissance Capital notes that until now, there has not been a single company that has raised more than $500 million during an IPO (FIG raised $1.2 billion) and its shares closed on the first day of trading at a price three times the IPO price.

• The market is now awaiting IPOs of Genesys Cloud Services, Canva Pty and Databricks.

Stocks in the morning after the report:
AAPL +2%
AMZN -7%
SYK -6%
KLAC -1%
MSTR -1%
COIN -9%
AJG -1%
NET +1%
RKT +6%
RDDT +18%

Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- Eurozone preliminary CPI for July.
- US employment data for July, ISM Manufacturing survey.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Eurozone labor market data:
Unemployment rate (June) = 6.2% (exp. 6.3%/pop. 6.2%).

• Trump: Jerome "Too Late" Powell has done it again!!! He is TOO LATE, and in fact TOO ANGRY, TOO STUPID and TOO POLITICAL to be the Fed Chairman. It's costing our country TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
US - Initial Jobless Claims = 218K (expected 222K / previously 217K)
US - Continuing Jobless Claims = 1.946M (expected 1.960M / previously 1.955M)
US - Inflation - PCE Price Index (June):
MoM = +0.3% (expected +0.3% / previously +0.1% +0.2%)
YoY = +2.6% (expected +2.5% / previously +2.3% +2.4%)
Core PCE = +2.8% YoY (expected +2.7% / previously +2.7% +2.8%
The PCE inflation measure is starting to look no better, and by some measures even worse, than it did when the Fed started cutting rates last year. — WSJ analysts.

• Trump is imposing higher tariffs on goods from dozens of countries starting Aug. 7.
The average U.S. tariff rate would rise to 15.2% if the rates are implemented as planned, according to Bloomberg Economics.
That’s up from 13.3% and well above the 2.3% in place in 2024, before Trump took office.
Canada’s new 35% levy would go into effect on Friday, as promised (except for goods that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).
For the five U.S. trading partners that received letters and entered into new agreements (the EU, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea), the new tariff rates would go into effect Aug. 7.

• One important exception to this week's deadline is China, whose tariff truce with the U.S. expires on Aug. 12.
TRUMP: I don't care what India does to Russia. Let them destroy their dead economies together, I don't care. We do very little business with India, their tariffs are too high, some of the highest in the world. Likewise, Russia and the U.S. do almost no business with each other. Let's leave it at that and tell Medvedev to watch his words. He's entering very dangerous territory!

Rubio: India's decision to continue buying oil from Russia is certainly a source of irritation in our relations with India.
Trump has clearly expressed frustration that with so many oil suppliers, India continues to buy oil from Russia. India's purchase of oil from Russia finances the military action against Ukraine.
/ Lead-in to financing international terrorism.

• TRUMP: Mexico will continue to pay a 25% tariff on fentanyl, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 50% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper. In addition, Mexico agreed to immediately eliminate its non-tariff trade barriers, of which there were many. We will negotiate with Mexico over the next 90 days with the goal of signing a trade agreement within the 90-day period or longer.

• White House special envoy Steve Witkoff to visit Israel to discuss humanitarian crisis in Gaza - Axios

• Trump announced an agreement with Pakistan to jointly produce oil.
“We are in the process of selecting an oil company to lead this partnership. Who knows, maybe they will sell oil to India someday!” – Trump.

• The President of Brazil accused the United States of interfering in the Brazilian justice system.
US interference in the Brazilian judicial system is unacceptable. The country will defend its sovereignty and seek new partners for cooperation - President Lula da Silva.

• Canada has just announced that it supports statehood for Palestine. This will make it very difficult for us to reach a trade agreement with them. Oh, Canada!!!
15 countries ready to recognise Palestine - France24.
Most EU members have joined France in expressing their readiness to recognise Palestine as a sovereign state, launching a new wave of diplomatic efforts ahead of a key UN General Assembly session in September, the French Foreign Ministry said.

• The Donald Trump administration has imposed its largest package of sanctions against Iran yet — US Treasury.
The more than 115 sanctions imposed today are the most sweeping since the Trump administration launched its maximum pressure campaign against Iran.

• The United States plans to land on the Moon before the end of Trump's presidential term, says acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy.

• The Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecasts, softened its risk assessment.
The BOJ raised its inflation forecasts for all three years through fiscal 2027, gave a less gloomy outlook for the economy than three months ago and said the risk assessment for the inflation outlook is now "broadly balanced."

• China suspends investment in US companies as trade war escalates - NIKKEI.

• Energy companies operating in Brazil have temporarily suspended oil exports to the United States after a 50 percent tariff was imposed.
- Reuters, citing the president of the Brazilian Petroleum Institute, Roberto Ardenga.
Muhammad is the most popular name for newborns in Britain in 2024.
- The country's Office for National Statistics.
China Manufacturing PMI fell more than expected
Actual 49.5 (expectations 50.2, prev 50.4)

Fed Chairman Powell's speech, strong Microsoft and Meta reports, geopolitics and stock news

2025-07-31T05:00:14+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The US Federal Reserve expectedly kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%.
Two members of the Federal Reserve spoke in favor of cutting rates by 0.25%. This was the first time since 1993 that there was such a divergence of opinions.
Powell's speech was tough. The probability of a rate cut in September fell from 63% to 41%. A month ago it was 95%.

• Stocks were down slightly yesterday (S&P 500 down 0.12%) after the Fed chairman's speech and the diminished chances of a Fed rate cut in September. Semiconductors supported the optimistic sentiment.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up an average of 1% this morning in positive reaction to the MSFT and META reports.
The US dollar rose, with the dollar index almost back to 100. It was 96 in early July. The dollar is having its best week since 2022.
Trade deals and stablecoins strengthen the dominance of the US and the dollar.

• The yen strengthened 0.6% today after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold as expected. Markets are expecting inflation forecasts to rise, with Governor Ueda due to speak soon, as traders expect rate hikes to be back on the agenda this year.

• Midway through the second-quarter earnings season, Nasdaq futures jumped 1.3% after strong results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms. The U.S. dollar held steady after hitting a two-month high, on track for its first monthly gain this year. “It’s been a great earnings season and that’s the main reason why U.S. stocks continue to rally, but the full burden of tariffs hasn’t been felt yet,” said David Chao, global Asia-Pacific market strategist at Invesco in Singapore.

• MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan fell 0.7%, although it was on track for a fourth straight monthly gain. Hong Kong's stock market led the decline, falling 1.1% after official PMI data showed weaker-than-expected activity in July.

• Copper futures fell 19.4% after US President Donald Trump said the United States would impose a 50% tariff on copper.

• The Korean won rose 0.1% after Trump said the United States would impose a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea. The Asian nation will invest $350 billion in American projects and buy $100 billion in American energy. The announcement was the latest in a series of trade policy agreements rushed ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline set by Trump to conclude trade deals before the United States imposes so-called Liberation Day tariffs.

• Trump also made a series of tariff announcements covering both goods from Brazil and low-value shipments from abroad.

• In early European trading, pan-regional futures rose 0.2%, with Germany's DAX futures up 0.2% and FTSE futures up 0.1% ahead of another round of earnings and inflation data.

• ChatGPT now has a “Study Mode”
The Study and Learn feature can:
- Explain any information step by step;
- Adapt to your level and customize learning for you;
- Analyze photos of homework;
Free for all users.

• Zuckerberg said in an open letter that Meta wants to create a “personal superintelligence” for everyone.

• Apple (AAPL) has lost its fourth AI specialist in a month. All of them have moved to Meta (META), - Bloomberg.

• Telegram is testing paid search by posts - with limits and payment for stars.
The new functionality will allow you to search for publications by keywords in all channels.

• Jefferies expects Apple to raise prices on iPhone 18.

• Deutsche: Foreign investors already own 18% of all US shares = record.

• The White House has put the nomination of a new CFTC chief on hold because his team is demanding confidential information about the Polymarket and PredictIt platforms, while the nominee currently sits on the board of their competitor, Kalshi.
/ CFTC — Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Oversees commodity exchanges in the United States.

• Toyota Motor (TM, -1%) posted record global sales in the first half of 2025, Bloomberg reported.
Toyota increased sales by 7.4% to 5.5 million vehicles. Production rose by 8.8%, with domestic output in Japan up nearly 20%.

• Traders are buying USD/JPY call options in anticipation of a rate above 150 per dollar, Bloomberg reported.
The probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates this year is estimated at 74%, but new US tariffs on Japanese goods may force the central bank to wait.

• Investors in China appear to be switching from gold-backed exchange-traded funds to local stocks, Bloomberg says.

• Mercedes-Benz profits fell by more than half due to US tariffs.
In the second quarter of 2025, Mercedes-Benz earned around 2.7 billion euros, down 55.8% compared to the same period last year.

• Revolut is considering buying a US bank to obtain a US license.

• Tesla has signed a $4.3 billion battery supply deal with LG Energy.
The batteries will not be used for cars, but for energy storage systems in the U.S.

• GlaxoSmithKline (GSK, +3%) reported better than expected results amid strong demand for vaccines.

• Adidas reports better than expected Q2 earnings

• Danone reported better than expected results for Q2. Everyone is actively consuming yogurts, washing them down with protein shakes, the company reported.

• Tesla (TSLA) + LG Energy Solution = $4.3B contract for LFP batteries for energy storage (2027-30).

• After $16.5 billion chip deal with Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), the company is reducing its dependence on China.

• Boeing (BA, 0%) reaffirms $3B/yr FCF target. Record 150 jets in Q2, ramps up 737/787 production, adds defense orders.

• Booking Holdings (BKNG, +0.4%) raised its forecast.
Bookings +8%, revenue +16%, driven by Europe and Asia; continues to invest in AI and alternative accommodation.

• Meta Platforms (META) under scrutiny from Italian antitrust authority:
AI integration into WhatsApp could “lock” users into its own ecosystem.

• Starbucks (SBUX, 0%) to launch Green Apron service in all U.S. locations by August, invest $0.5 billion in staff through 2026; China traffic hits record

• Marathon Digital (MARA, 0%):
Hashrate target 75 EH/s by end of year, Bitcoin reserve > 50k, Q2 revenue record after infrastructure expansion.

• Humana (HUM, +12%) beat expectations, raising its 2025 EPS forecast despite a decline in Medicare Advantage.

• Seagate (STX, -3%): Q4 revenue +30% y/y, record margin. Resumes share buybacks — boom in nearline drives from cloud giants.

• Altria (MO, +4%) beats consensus,
confirms full-year EPS range; oral offsets cigarette decline

• Generac (GNRC, +20%): Q2 sales +6%.
Updated guide - growth of 2-5% in 2025, duties less than expected.

• Petrobras (PBR, +1%): Q2 production +8%.
Exports to China are growing, although service costs are also rising.

• GE HealthCare (GEHC, -8%): Q2 revenue +3.3%.
Demand in the US and Europe; 2025 guidance increased, with further revenue and EPS growth expected.

• Stablecoin transaction volume in Q1 2025 was almost 2x that of Visa.
Exceeding the $6 trillion mark — Bitwise.
Visa has already processed over $200 million in stablecoin transactions.
We see real potential in stablecoins. — Visa CEO.

• Coinbase has partnered with JPMorgan.
The partnership will allow users to make credit card purchases on Coinbase and redeem Chase points for USDC.

• The United States has signed a new contract with Lockheed Martin (LMT, 0%) to produce THAAD interceptors.
The additional agreement is worth more than $2 billion and increases the total contract value by more than $10 billion.

• Elon Musk's company to build tunnel route in Nashville.
The Boring Company plans to connect downtown to the airport with a 10-mile underground system financed by private funds.

• Copper futures fell 19% yesterday.
This was a negative factor for other base metals - silver fell 1.6%, platinum 3.8%, palladium 1.8%.
Gold fell 0.4% - here the dollar strengthened more than one percent.
Copper fell, since Trump's import tariff will not include refined copper.

• New IPO price of Figma (FIG) is $33.
Above the last upper limit of $30-32.
The market today expects a sharp rise in FIG shares from the first seconds of trading. It remains to be seen where the market will open - $40, 50, 60 ... 80?

• Ambiq Micro (AMBQ) shares soared 67% yesterday after their IPO.
Shares opened at $38, well above their initial public offering price of $24. The stock peaked at $48.43 and closed at $41.80.

Stocks Premarket After Reports
MSFT +8%
META +11%
QCOM -5%
ARM -9%
LRCX -5%
HOOD -1%
EQIX +0%
CVNA +16%
CP +1%
AEM +3%
ALL -0%
PSA -1%
F -2%
FICO -1%
CTSH -2%
PRU -0%
EBAY +11%

Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- U.S. earnings: Apple, Amazon.com, Mastercard.
- European earnings: Shell, Unilever, British American Tobacco, London Stock Exchange Group.
- German data: June import prices, July unemployment rate, preliminary CPI and HICP for July.
- French data: July preliminary CPI, June producer prices.
- Eurozone data: June unemployment.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Germany GDP Indicators:
q/q = -0.1% (expected -0.1% / pop. 0.4%).
y/y= +0.4% (expected +0.2% / pop. 0.0%).
• EUROZONE - GDP (Q2 2025R).
q/q = +0.1% (expected 0% / previously +0.6%).
y/y = +1.4% (expected +1.2% / previously +1.5%).
• US - ADP Nonfarm Employment (July) = +104K (expected +77K / previously -34K -23K).
US - GDP (Q2 2025R - preliminary) = +3% q/q (expected +2.5% / previously -0.5%).

• Trump again calls on Powell to lower the rate: no inflation, good GDP.
US GDP growth in the second quarter was largely due to the positive contribution of imports.
US - Pending Home Sales (June) = -0.8% m/m (expected +0.2% / previously +1.8%).

• TRUMP on India. India has always bought the vast majority of its military equipment from Russia and is Russia's largest energy buyer, along with China, while everyone wants Russia to stop military action in Ukraine - none of this is in their interests!
SO, STARTING FROM AUGUST 1ST, INDIA WILL PAY A CUSTOMS DUTY OF 25% PLUS PENALTIES FOR THE ABOVE.

South Korea to Pay 15% Import Tariff to USTrump: The United States of America has agreed to a full and comprehensive trade agreement with the Republic of Korea. The agreement provides that South Korea will transfer $350 billion to the United States for investments that will be owned and controlled by the United States and that I, as President, will select. In addition, South Korea will purchase $100 billion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) or other energy products and has agreed to invest a significant amount of money for its investment purposes. Trump signed an order imposing a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil. The order will go into effect in seven days.
Civilian aircraft and their components, aluminum, tin, wood pulp, energy products and fertilizers are on the list of goods subject to withdrawal and will be subject to a 10% tax.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Tuesday he had warned Chinese officials that further purchases of Russian oil, which is under sanctions, would result in high tariffs because of a bill in Congress. But China has said it will defend its energy sovereignty. - RTRS./ The bill is not yet law.

• Effective August 29, the US will eliminate de minimis benefits for imported goods shipped through the international postal network valued at up to $800.
These goods will be subject to full duty.
In the first phase, these imported goods will be subject to a new two-tier tariff structure, including a temporary flat duty of between $80 and $200 per item.
Trump’s closing of the de minimis loophole will be a problem for Temu and Shein, which have used the loophole to send millions of low-value packages directly to US consumers without paying duty or going through rigorous inspections.

• The deportation of 1.3 million workers in the US (Trump's plan) could cost the economy more than 1.2% of GDP and add 0.5-0.6% to inflation in 2026, - Peterson Institute.
The hardest hit will be:
Agriculture, where 42% of hired workers are undocumented.
Construction - 13.7%.
Hotel and restaurant industry - 7.1%.

• Arab countries have called on Hamas to step down from power in Gaza.
Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have signed a document calling on the radical Islamist group Hamas to end its rule in the Gaza Strip and hand over weapons to the Palestinian Authority with international support.

• The EU failed to impose sanctions against Israel.
Germany and Italy played a key role in blocking the initiative.

• Germany's public debt per capita has peaked.
The volume of public debt in Germany increased by 2.6% to around €2.51 trillion by the end of 2024, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
Per capita, the debt was €30,062, €669 more than the previous year. The €30,000 mark in public debt per person was exceeded for the first time.

• The idea of creating a European Defence Union, which would include Norway, Great Britain and Ukraine. I plan to start promoting it in the autumn and present to EU leaders an action plan until 2030 to prepare the armies for combat readiness, - EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Policy Andrius Kubilius.

• Germany is preparing large orders for aircraft and armored vehicles, – Reuters.

• Poland asks the EU for 45 billion euros for militarization.
Warsaw has decided not to strengthen its defense at its own expense and has sent a request to Brussels for 45 billion euros from the EU militarization fund. This is almost a third of all available funds allocated in the European military construction program until 2030.

• Poland is starting to have serious problems due to the lack of Ukrainian grain.
Polish terminals are empty, but spend millions on maintenance. Jobs in ports and transport companies are at risk. Meanwhile, Romania, Germany and Turkey accept and reload Ukrainian grain, making money on it.
The blocking of imports in Poland threatens layoffs in the transport sector and port enterprises.

• No more stamps in passports: a new system for entering the EU will come into force on 12 October.
Border crossings will be recorded digitally. The system collects biometric data – in particular fingerprints and facial images – and will gradually completely replace the practice of stamping passports.

• Europe continues to import LNG at record levels.
Deliveries since April have exceeded 48 billion cubic meters — Gas Infrastructure Europe.

• Russia intends to take control of Moldova in the fall, said Maia Sandu.
A meeting of the Supreme Security Council of Moldova was held in Chisinau, at which the country's president, Maia Sandu, warned of possible Russian interference in the parliamentary elections, TV8 reports.

• Schiff: "In the future, when people think about inflation, they won't think of Biden or even Carter. Trump will go down in history as the president of inflation."

• China is stepping up efforts to create a domestic AI ecosystem that can function without Western technology — WSJ.

• Poland estimated losses from American duties at $2.2 billion.

• Iran plans to abandon GPS and replace it with China's BeiDou system.

Traders await US Federal Reserve decision and corporate reports from Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, ARM, Ford, geopolitical news

2025-07-30T04:59:47+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Financial markets are repeating last year's situation - at the end of July, stocks are getting cheaper, US government bonds are getting more expensive. Risk-off. But so far very sluggish, since optimism is now clearly higher than last year, despite Trump's tariff war.
Investors believe that Trump needs a bull market in stocks, and he will squeeze the Fed to lower interest rates and turn on the printing press.
Plus deregulation in cryptocurrencies and banking.
This morning, everything is calm.
We are waiting for fresh forecasts from the Fed, reports from the largest companies and data from the labor market - stormy days are ahead.

• Traders face a range of risk events over the next 72 hours, including central bank decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan, corporate earnings and, culminating in US President Donald Trump setting an August 1 tariff deadline.

Markets are showing cautious optimism ahead of the data deluge and after US-China trade talks ended on a positive note, albeit without any substantive agreement.

• Asian shares rise, led by gains in Korea, while the Shanghai Composite Index is poised to enter a tech bull market, up 20% from its April low.

• The euro strengthened 0.2 percent against the dollar, recouping gains as the single European currency heads for its first monthly loss this year as markets weigh the EU's trade deal with the United States.

• Fed and corporate earnings loom on the horizon. Traders are also bracing for a slew of corporate earnings, including from tech mega-caps Microsoft and Meta, and European stocks including UBS Group and GSK.

• The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting later Wednesday, although some central bank officials may issue a rare dissent in favor of lower borrowing costs. The Fed is likely to keep rates on hold today but will give guidance that will weigh heavily on markets.

• And ahead of Trump's deadline to strike a deal that would prevent the "Liberation Day" tariffs, talks with the US by some countries, including China, India and South Korea, appear to be stalled. Buckle up.

• Japan's two-year government bond auction saw the strongest demand since October, with investors drawn by yields near their highest since 2008, Bloomberg reported.

• Senator Lummis introduced the Mortgage Modernization Act, which would allow crypto assets to be taken into account when evaluating mortgages.

• Nvidia (NVDA) ordered 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC due to strong demand in China - RTRS.

• The EU intends to buy AI chips worth 40 billion euros as part of a trade deal with the United States.

• “EUR/USD is not such a good deal,” – ING.

• DXY had its best day since May yesterday, driven by a massive exit from EUR/USD longs, especially after Europe's weak response to the US trade deal. Expectations were not met and the euro is losing strength.

• Chinese startup Zhipu claims its latest AI model, GLM-4.5 AI, is even more cost-effective to run than AI models from DeepSeek - CNBC.

• India overtakes China in smartphone exports to the US, thanks to a 240% jump in production - CNBC.
India's share of US smartphone shipments rose to nearly 36% in the first 5 months of 2025 from about 11% in 2024. China's share fell to 49% from 82% in the same period - The Indian Express.

• CBOE has filed a 19b-4 with the SEC to list and commence trading of the Invesco Galaxy SOL Spot ETF.
CBOE has also filed a 19b-4 with the SEC to list and commence trading of the Invesco Galaxy Staking Spot INJ ETF.

• Fidelity predicts gold at $4,000 by the end of 2025, - Bloomberg.
Analyst Samson notes that the slowdown in the US economy will strengthen the influence of "doves" in the Fed, which will contribute to a more accommodative monetary policy. With the likelihood of rate cuts increasing and the dollar weakening, gold, as an asset without yield, traditionally wins.

• Investors are moving from government bonds to US and EU corporate debt, - Bloomberg.

• In June, $3.9 billion was withdrawn from Treasuries, while $10 billion was invested in US and European investment-grade bonds (EPFR).

• The first 100% effective drug from Gilead (GILD) for the prevention of HIV is approved in the United States.

• Apple (AAPL) is closing a store in China for the first time, losing its lead in the smartphone market - 21st Century Business Herald.

• Novo Nordisk (NVO, -22%) lowered its profit and sales forecast for the year.

• Boeing (BA, -4%) EPS -$1.24, but better than expected loss of -$1.4.
Boeing suffered another setback, but the company says things are looking up.

• PayPal (PYPL, -9%) reported better-than-expected results.
However, free cash flow fell 49% y/y to $692 million.

• Baker Hughes (BKR, -2%) is close to a $13.6 billion deal for Chart Industries (GTLS, +16%) at $210/share (+22% premium). Flowserve (FLS, +2%) is “out.”

• UnitedHealth (UNH, -7%): earnings $4.08 (–$0.37 vs. consensus), revenue +13% → annual EPS revision downwards.

• Merck (MRK, -2%) cuts $3 billion in spending through 2027 to prepare for Keytruda generics; adjusted EPS $2.13 (>expected).

• Woodward (WWD, +1%) raises 2025 forecast after Airbus deal; records sales, acquires Safran business

• ONsemi (ON, +0.5%) integrates with NVDA for 800 V power supply of AI centers.

• Berkshire (BRK.B, -1%) reduced its stake in VeriSign (VRSN, -9%) to <10%, selling $1.23 billion in shares.

• Procter & Gamble (PG, -0.3%): COO Shailesh Jejurikar will become CEO effective Jan. 1, 26; Jon Moeller is executive chairman.

• Latnik: Trump to announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals in the next 2 weeks. Tariffs will be huge if pharmaceuticals are not produced in the US.

• Google's earthquake early warning system failed to warn people in Turkey in 2023.
Google acknowledged that the system issued a low-level warning instead of the highest. If people had received a notification, they might have had time to find safety.

• Iron ore prices rose more than 2% to near $103 a tonne
amid news that the US-China trade truce could be extended.

• Microsoft (MSFT) is in talks with OpenAI to ensure it has access to its technology, even if OpenAI creates true AI equal to or better than humans, Bloomberg.

• US data centers could consume up to 12% of all electricity by 2028, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
In the most pessimistic scenario, that’s 255 additional terawatt-hours of consumption, equivalent to the energy consumption of more than 24 million households.

• Open interest in options on BlackRock IBIT's BTC ETF has tripled this year to $34 billion. Daily trading volume averages $4 billion, exceeding the trading volumes of even major ETFs in credit and emerging markets — BBG.

• An offline messenger from Twitter creator Jack Dorsey has been released in the App Store. The application works even in airplane mode, correspondence occurs via Bluetooth, and all messages are saved and encrypted on the smartphones themselves.

• Figma (FIG) IPO took place at the upper limit of the offer - $32. Demand exceeded supply by 40 times.

Stocks in premarket trading after earnings
QRVO +11%
FTAI +9%
TER +6%
SBUX +4.5%
MARA +4%
BXP +3%
REG +2%
V -2%
BKNG -2%
MDLZ -3%
STX -6%

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- European earnings: UBS Group, Banco Santander, GSK, Telefonica.
- US earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, ARM, Ford.
- French: June consumer spending and preliminary Q2 GDP.
- German: June retail sales, Q2 GDP forecast.
- Eurozone: Q2 GDP forecast.
- UK: 27-year government debt auction.
- US: Fed interest rate decision, Q2 GDP growth rate.
- Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• US Trade Balance (June-preliminary) = -$85.99B (expected -$98.3B / previously -$96.59B)
The US trade deficit has started to narrow quickly due to Trump's tariffs.
US imports have fallen sharply after panic buying on the tariff panic.
This means less dollar liquidity in the world. And that's good for the dollar.
US consumer confidence and labor market indicators are all good.
CB Consumer Confidence = 97.2 (expected 95.9 / pop. 95.2 estimated).
JOLTS Job Openings (May) = 7.437M (expected 7.510M / pop. 7.712M estimated).

• Bessent on China talks: China rejects US calls on Russian oil.
More tariffs may be needed to force China.

• India's Ambassador to the UK Vikram Doraiswamy has responded sharply to criticism of oil purchases from Russia, the Times of India writes:
"We import over 80% of our energy. What do you want us to do - shut down our economy?" Everything you need to know about the modern world.
Trump on India - India may pay duties of 20-25%.

• The European Commission has officially confirmed that it will not be able to force EU companies to buy $750 billion worth of energy resources from the US or invest $600 billion in the US.
But it will “talk to companies” and persuade them to do so.
This was stated by the European Commission representative Olof Gill at a briefing in Brussels, answering a question about the EU-US trade agreement.

• Japan expects only 1-2% of the $550 billion in the new trade agreement with the US to be real money in the form of investments, with the rest being loans and guarantees.

• Even with high tariffs, Trump's trade war suddenly doesn't look so scary on Wall Street - CNBC

• The IMF raised its estimate of global economic growth in 2025 by 0.2% to 3%.
IMF: Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 2026.

• China and the United States agreed to extend the deadline for the agreement and continue negotiations.

• The Trump administration is considering reforming the patent system to raise more revenue.
Officials are discussing introducing a fee on patent owners in the amount of 1% to 5% of the total value of the patent, – WSJ.

• Trump claims he is NOT seeking to meet Xi.
The Fake News reports that I AM TRYING to arrange a "summit" with President Xi Jinping. This is not true, I am not trying! I can go to China, but only with an invitation from President Xi, which has already been sent. Otherwise, no interest!

• Gulf states to replace Russian oil after Trump sanctions – Reuters.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 700,000 barrels a day this year, according to the International Energy Agency.

• Orban faces economic storm ahead of election.
Hungary's government has significantly cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%, down from 3.4% previously.
Government interventions such as price controls and forced wage increases have heightened business uncertainty.

• Trump has acknowledged for the first time that there is a real famine in the Gaza Strip and called on Israel to allow “every ounce of food” to be delivered there.
He has thus publicly diverged in his assessments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who the day before called the claim of famine a “brazen lie” — The Guardian.
Israel plans to completely annex the Gaza Strip in accordance with Netanyahu’s plan.
The country is preparing to issue an ultimatum to Hamas, demanding that it agree to a ceasefire within a few days. In case of refusal, the phased annexation of the strip will begin. This plan has already received the approval of the Trump administration, Haaretz reports.
We understand that the Muslim population is growing in many countries in Europe, and this affects the policies of European governments.
But this is not a reason why Israel should commit suicide, — Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on France’s decision to recognize Palestine.
Starmer announced that the UK will recognize Palestine as a state at a UN meeting in September
If Israel does not agree to a ceasefire.

• Bloomberg: Germany intends to double its defense budget by 2029.
According to the news agency, Berlin is expected to allocate 162 billion euros for military spending in 2029. At the same time, Germany expects to spend 9 billion euros annually to support Ukraine, Bloomberg reports, citing a high-ranking government official.

• The EU's transport infrastructure is not ready for war with Russia, warned European Commissioner for Transport Apostolos Tzitsdikostas.
In the event of a Russian invasion, NATO tanks could get stuck in tunnels, fall through old bridges under the weight, or stop at borders due to excessive bureaucracy, he believes.
The EU plans to spend €17 billion on modernization.

• Thailand has accused Cambodia of violating the ceasefire. The Thai military said Cambodians carried out attacks at various points along the border between the two countries after midnight, when the truce was supposed to go into effect.

• Britain tests spy balloon that can fly higher than most military aircraft - British military radio
The balloons, which operate between 18 and 24km above the Earth, higher than most military aircraft, would also provide a low-cost communications option.

• Germany plans to develop long-range drones capable of hitting targets deep behind enemy lines – Handelsblatt.

• France has suffered its biggest defence data breach in history, with codes for combat systems and nuclear weapons software among other things hacked.
The French defence company Naval Group, which makes submarines and warships, has been attacked by cybercriminals who have gained access to sensitive data.

Latest stock market events and news, US-Europe deal result, geopolitical reviews

2025-07-29T05:05:50+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The euro fell yesterday in response to the US-EU deal to 1.16 against the dollar.
A strong dollar = weak gold, which is hovering around $3,300.
The US stock market took the news of the US-EU trade deal calmly yesterday. Stock indices fluctuated around zero.
Semiconductors were the growth leaders in anticipation of CAPEX growth and on the news from AMD about raising prices for their leading chips. TSLA (+3%) also showed good growth, which almost closed the reporting gap down. We should also note the growth of the Oil & Gas E&P industry (on average by 2% - on Trump's threats to Putin) and Computer Hardware (also by 2-3%, only SMCI gave +10%). And NKE (+4%) pleased investors on an upgrade from JPMorgan.
The news about the increase in borrowing by the US Treasury was already in the price of government bonds after the debt ceiling was raised on July 5 (otherwise TLT would now cost $89, not $86).
Crypto is stabilizing in anticipation of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (or Clarity Act, HR 3633) being passed in the US by September 30.
Everything is calm on the markets this morning. Only crypto is under pressure from sellers. But it will probably remain unsettled here until the Clarity Act is passed.

• European stock futures firmed slightly, with the single currency stabilizing just below $1.1600. The euro's precipitous fall was not entirely unexpected given how active the euro long/dollar short trades have been, and there is a suspicion that speculators will soon start selling the dollar again. After all, from Friday, American consumers will be paying a minimum 15% tax on all imports into the country for the foreseeable future.

This tax will reduce demand and profitability at home, while eating into export earnings worldwide. It is not for nothing that such a policy is called "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy.

There is also the rather naive notion that such “deals” guarantee a period of certainty. Consider how Trump suddenly gave Russia 10-12 days to move toward a ceasefire with Ukraine, after setting a 50-day deadline earlier this month. This didn’t seem to be planned. Trump simply said it off the cuff at a press conference at his golf club in Scotland. If that deadline can be changed on a whim, who’s to say that any agreement on these trade deals can’t be changed on his whim.

• China and Tech Earnings: Trump has seen how trade and tariffs can dominate the global news cycle; he won’t be letting that go anytime soon. For example, talks with China are set to continue in Stockholm today, and everyone is expecting the deadline for reaching a deal to be extended by another 90 days. That, just in case, would give Trump time to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and personally broker another of the biggest deals in history.

• For its part, Wall Street remains in its own world, counting on upbeat large-cap results this week to justify the highest valuations since the late 1990s. Meta and Microsoft are due to report on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon the next day. A number of European companies also report earnings today.

• The US Treasury plans to raise $1.007 trillion from the sale of government bonds in the third quarter of 2025.
This is $453 billion more than the previous estimate.
This amount includes $449 billion in government bonds that were not placed in the second quarter.
In the fourth quarter, the expected placement is $590 billion.
On July 5, the US debt ceiling was raised from $36.1 trillion to $41 trillion. The increase in the debt ceiling opens up the possibility of placing additional volumes of US government bonds, which was closed in the second quarter after reaching the ceiling.
In fact, the US Treasury is reaching an additional supply of US government bonds in the amount of about $2 trillion per year. Even if these are mainly short-term government bonds. The question is still - who will buy such a volume?
• Over the past month, ETFs have recorded an inflow of almost $100 billion and are moving towards last year's record.
American stocks and crypto funds were the leaders in investment.
June also saw the launch of a record 108 new ETFs — the first time in history that more than 100 funds were launched in a month.

• Schiff criticizes Trump's new trade deal with the EU, believing that it puts the United States at a disadvantage - Americans will pay high tariffs, but Europeans will not.

• Goldman sees Chinese stocks up 11% on potential trade deal with US.

• Oppenheimer raised its 2025 year-end SP500 forecast to 7,100 from 5,950.
The SP500 is now likely to reach 7,200 next year — Morgan Stanley.

• Bloomberg Economics: The weakening of the yuan against major currencies since Trump's return to the White House makes Chinese goods more competitive on the global market.
This will help Chinese companies survive the difficulties associated with U.S. tariff policies.
Last week, Trump again expressed his displeasure with the weakening yuan.

• Bangladesh to buy 25 Boeing (BA) aircraft to reduce trade deficit with US - The Daily Star

• German carmakers to lose €10bn due to Trump tariffs – FT.

• Goldman Sachs expects the new tariffs to push inflation above 3%, despite a decline in the underlying dynamics to 2%.

• Meta Superintelligence Labs now has about 3,400 employees, - The Information.

• Since June, 98 companies have raised $43 billion to buy BTC and other cryptocurrencies - twice as much as all U.S. IPOs in 2025 combined.

• Samsung Electronics has signed a multi-year, $16.5 billion deal to make chips for Tesla.
Samsung's new giant Texas plant will be specifically designed to make Tesla's next-generation AI6 chip. The strategic importance of this cannot be overstated, Musk said.
The supply of AI chips supported Samsung shares (+3.5%), but the company is still catching up with SK Hynix and Micron in the HBM segment.

• Trump Media has invested $300 million in a BTC-linked options strategy that could potentially benefit from BTC price movements.
The company currently holds about $2 billion in crypto assets, making it one of the few public companies to use such leverage — BBG.

• Ray Dalio, on CNBC's Master Investor podcast, recommended allocating 15% of a portfolio to BTC or gold for better diversification and risk/return balance.
While he personally prefers gold, Dalio also holds BTC, noting the limited supply and transaction benefits.

• Hedge funds are actively increasing long positions in gold futures and options – BBG.

• BofA said it is seeing relatively negative customer sentiment ahead of Apple's (AAPL) earnings report
due to tariffs and regulatory pressure on the company in some countries.
The report is due July 31.

• GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) will pay Hengrui Pharma $0.5 billion up front and up to $12 billion in milestones for 12 experimental drugs in respiratory, immunological and oncological medicine. Hengrui - up to 4 years.

• Huawei unveiled the CloudMatrix 384 cluster on its own 910C, which outperforms Nvidia GB200 in certain tasks.
The company is gaining strength in AI hardware despite US export restrictions.

• First National Financial (FNLIF) to acquire Birch Hill & Brookfield for C$2.9 billion (C$48/share, 17x P/E); co-founders to retain minority stake. Closes Q4 2025.

• Nice (NICE) acquires startup Cognigy for $955 million; integrates into CXone platform - bet on automated call centers supports demand for “human” AI interaction.

• Alibaba (BABA) enters Quark AI Glasses: real-time translation and voice control to replicate Ray-Ban Meta's success in Asian markets.

• Tether's gold stablecoin XAUT's market cap is skyrocketing, reflecting strong demand for gold - CT.

• The largest public miner MARA attracted $950 million, part of which will go towards purchasing BTC for its balance.

• PayPal (PYPL) Allows US Merchants to Accept Payments in More Than 100 Cryptocurrencies, - Fortune.

• Figma (FIG) is set to IPO this week.
The company has raised its expected offering price from $25-28 to $30-32. I was planning to buy at $30 with the goal of selling at $40.
However, record highs in the U.S. stock market are pushing the IPO price higher and higher, leaving less room for IPO speculators.
Space-based Firefly (FLY) is also set to go public.

• Whirlpool (WHR) shares fall 14% in premarket trading after earnings.
The appliance maker saw its quarterly profit fall and rivals rush to import more of their products ahead of tariffs.

Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- U.S. data on job openings, June trade balance and consumer confidence from the Conference Board.
- The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump: Global tariff rate will be around 15-20%.
The European Commission president has unveiled details of a new trade deal with the US:
A single tariff of 15% will apply to most sectors.
This is a “hard ceiling”, with no possibility of further increases. “0 for 0” tariff policy on a range of goods: all aircraft and components, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, certain chemicals, generics, agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials. The list will gradually expand.

• Steel and aluminum: joint fight against global oversupply. Quotas and tariff reductions will be introduced.
Energy: the EU will buy American LNG instead of Russian, as well as nuclear fuel. Purchase volume is $250 billion for 3 years.

• AI chips: The EU will use American chips for AI. This is a framework agreement, technical details are still being worked out.
At the same time, the EU admitted that it does not have the authority to fulfill its promise to invest $600 billion in the US economy.
It looks like there may be problems with the US-EU agreement.
The European economy will suffer losses after the conclusion of a trade agreement with the US,
which provides for a reduction in tariffs from the 30% threatened by the EU to 15%, according to Western businessmen, economists and politicians - NYT / RTRS / FT.

US-EU trade deal to cost global economy $2 trillion by 2027, Reuters
French industry minister on EU-US trade framework agreement:
"This is not the end of the story. We are entering a phase of further negotiations that could last weeks or months. We will continue to fight to rebalance our trade relations with the US."

• Trump has suspended restrictions on technology exports to China to reach a trade agreement ahead of the third round of talks between the two sides on July 28-29 in Stockholm to extend existing trade agreements — FT.

Trump's 'egonomics': how greed became the driving force behind his policies - The Guardian.
US President Donald Trump's greed is the driving force behind his leadership style, his approach to business and politics.
He has turned deal-making into his main tool for achieving power and wealth, and this has become the cornerstone of his so-called 'egonomics' - a symbiosis of narcissism and the desire to accumulate money.

• The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has stated that AI could significantly change the trajectory of national debt growth by accelerating economic growth and reducing inflation.
Instead of US debt reaching 160% of GDP by 2054, it could stabilize at around 110%.
/ This is a new recognition of the impact of the technological revolution on national debt.
The hole in the German state budget turned out to be larger than expected
The German government is currently coordinating the budget for 2026. Its approval by the Cabinet is scheduled for July 30. During the calculations, it turned out that the government's financial plan for 2027-2029 is underfunded not by 144 billion euros, as previously thought, but by 172 billion.

• Gaza must be taken by force and everything must be started from scratch there, giving the Palestinians a brighter future - US Senator Lindsey Graham on a peace plan to end the war with Hamas.

• Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire,
which will take effect at midnight local time next month, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was quoted as saying by the national news agency Bernama.

• Vucic accused director Kusturica of attempting a coup d'etat. According to the Serbian president, director and musician Emir Kusturica, together with representatives of the Serbian opposition, is trying to remove him from the post of head of state. He also accused political opponents of lacking a program and understanding of what Serbia needs and what its people want.

• "Donald-d-d" and "Emmanuelle-l-l." Trump has introduced a new style of communication among world leaders - Politico.
Donald Trump, as during his first presidential term, contrary to diplomatic rules, shares his personal phone number with foreign leaders and encourages them to call him directly or initiates such conversations himself, the publication writes.

• The US delivered nuclear weapons to the UK on a plane with transponders switched on to signal Russia.
Thus, the US demonstrates that it is “not reducing its nuclear presence in Europe” - BBG.

US-EU 15% Tariff Agreement, Stock Market News, and Geopolitics

2025-07-28T05:09:44+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Following the news of the US-EU deal and the continuation of US-China negotiations, US stock index futures are growing by an average of 0.5%.
Bitcoin is approaching $120,000 again, and Ethereum has updated its local maximum of $3,888.
Overall, everything is calm. Ahead is the Fed meeting, US labor market data and a big reporting week. In addition, the holiday season is becoming increasingly active.

• We may hear a lot about the art of the deal this week. With the deadline for US tariffs on the global economy approaching later this week, it is the EU's turn to announce a trade deal with the White House, albeit one that will benefit the US.

The deal cuts the base tariff on most European imports to 15%, down from the Trump administration’s previous threat of 30%, and commits the EU to invest about $600 billion in the United States. As Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore, puts it: “The 15% tariff was a welcome surprise as it is half of what the US had threatened to impose on the EU, and it raises hopes that other major US trading partners will soon be able to strike similar deals.”

• The deal appears to be similar to the agreement struck between the US and Japan last week, and shows a trend toward unilateral investment in exchange for lower tariffs. It could offer a hint of what to expect as talks with other major economies such as China, South Korea and Taiwan have stalled.

Investors have welcomed the deal, which will avoid a trade war. The new U.S. tariff rate on EU goods will apply to drugs and pharmaceuticals, as well as cars, which were the bloc’s biggest exports to the U.S. last year. Aircraft and their components, the next-largest segment, will be subject to zero-to-zero tariffs, although the U.S. will retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum. Investors have welcomed the trade deal, which will avoid a trade war and could provide clarity for companies.

• Pan-regional futures rose 1%, with German DAX futures up 1% and FTSE futures up 0.5%. U.S. stock futures rose 0.4% after the deal, putting the S&P 500 on track for a sixth straight day of gains and a potential new high.

• Heineken's earnings will dominate Monday's earnings call as the world's second-largest brewer counts the cost of the tariffs. But the company's shares are likely to benefit from a recently struck framework agreement, as well as from automakers and pharmaceuticals in the region.

• Your personal data transmitted to ChatGPT can be used in court, - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
People discuss a lot of personal issues with ChatGPT. And now, if you discuss something like that with a doctor, a lawyer, or a therapist, there is a principle of confidentiality. There is medical confidentiality, there is attorney-client confidentiality. And with ChatGPT, we don’t have a clear understanding yet of how this is supposed to work.

• Bezos has sold $5.7 billion in AMZN shares since late June,
and is rumored to be eyeing a takeover of CNBC.

• Goldman Sachs warns that the short-term rally may be ending.
The market has previously seen strong gains in high-risk, fundamentally weak stocks, a typical sign of mass short-covering. But these moves have now become so large that we may already be in the late stages of this process.

• Chinese scientists have learned to create disks with a capacity of 360 terabytes.
To create them, they used the technology of “multidimensional glass storage” - a laser writes information directly into a quartz disk and creates nanostructures in which the information is stored. They plan to set up production by the end of this year.

• Strive Asset Management CEO Vivek Ramaswamy on why his company adopted the BTC standard:
“Because it’s a billion-dollar $$$ opportunity.”
Ramaswamy, a former associate of Musk’s at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), explained.
Spot BTC ETF Inflows Have Slowed, But Total Inflows Still Near Record Levels - Farside
CryptoQuant: The Current Rally in BTC Isn’t Fueled by Retail Investors, It’s Continued Heavy Inflation by Institutions and Corporates

• JPMorgan warns of growing complacency in global markets outside the US.
Despite stock indexes at record levels, earnings revisions remain overwhelmingly negative.
JPMorgan analysts believe the market will either enter a phase of upward revisions or face a wave of volatility and a possible correction.

• Trading in penny stocks is now at an all-time high - Goldman Sachs

• Charter Spectrum (CHTR, -18.5%) is losing subscribers, sending the stock through its worst day ever
The selloff also spread to Charter peers like Comcast (-4.8%) and Altice USA (-9.2%).

Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- Earnings: Heineken, Wise, EssilorLuxottica
- UK data: CBI distribution deals for July
- Bond auctions: France 3m, 7m, 9m and 1yr

Current Fundamental Reviews

• The US and EU agreed on a trade deal.
The EU agreed to:
Purchase $750 billion in energy (instead of buying gas, oil and nuclear fuel from Russia from the US - it will be interesting to see what Slovakia and Hungary will say).
Invest $600 billion in the US in addition to existing investments.
Open the countries' markets to trade with the US at zero tariffs.
Purchase a significant amount of military equipment.

• China and US to extend tariff pause for another 90 days - SCMP
An extension of the "tariff truce" is expected at talks in Stockholm, which begin tomorrow. The previous tariff freeze was in May and was due to expire on August 12.
Following talks in Geneva and London, the two countries have reached a "status quo": the US will impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, and China will respond with a 10% tariff on top of the tariffs in place before Trump's second term.
"We can now move on to other issues aimed at rebalancing the economic relationship," Bessent said.

• Trump: Thailand, Cambodia ready to meet for talks.
Representatives from the two countries agreed to “quickly develop a cease-fire plan,” Trump wrote.
The fighting, now in its fourth day, has killed at least 33 people and displaced more than 168,000.

• Kamala and everyone who received support money broke the law. They should all be held accountable! - Trump

• 70% of US citizens believe that Donald Trump's "Big and Beautiful" budget bill will only benefit the rich - WSJ poll
At least half of respondents also answered that the project will harm the poor and socially vulnerable groups.
/ In the US, trust in both Democrats and Republicans is falling. And how is Musk doing with the new party? Traded for peace with Trump?

• China has strengthened its position and is looking for big concessions from the US in a new round of trade talks - CNN
Beijing's tight grip on strategic minerals has forced the Trump administration to lift some restrictions on exports to China, including even lifting a ban on the sale of a key AI chip to Nvidia.

• Latnik: Bessent will discuss sanctions against Russia at a meeting with China.
“I will never be the same again after what I learned.”

• FBI deputy director posts cryptic message amid Epstein scandal
Dan Bongino is a former Secret Service agent who protected US presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He became deputy director of the FBI under Trump – and now he has caused a stir with a cryptic online post.

• I think J.D. Vance would be a great candidate if he decided he wanted to do it
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on who he sees as the best Republican candidate for the 2028 presidential election.

• The Russian Federation cannot be excluded from the EU thermonuclear reactor project.
This is stated in the response of the European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen to a request from members of the European Parliament. This concerns the construction of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) in France - the world's largest scientific development in the field of controlled thermonuclear fusion.

• Orban proposes to "reform" the EU, otherwise it "faces collapse" - DW.
Until we get what belongs to us, there will be no new budget.
We will bring this money home and will not make concessions on issues of sovereignty, - Orban on the vote for the new EU budget.

• Serbia will not impose sanctions against Russia, - Vucic. Earlier, the media reported that Minister Starovic said that Belgrade could join the sanctions if it received guarantees of admission to the EU.

• The European Parliament is considering proposals to accelerate the EU’s transition away from Russian gas and curtail imports as early as January 2027, rather than by the end of 2027, as previously planned — RTRS.

• Since May, the number of failures in the operation of satellite navigation systems in the Baltic Sea, particularly in its German part, has been growing.
This significantly increases the risk of grounding and collisions.
Cases of "spoofing" have been recorded - due to manipulation of GPS signals, the captain of the vessel gets the impression that he is in the wrong place.
Swedish experts believe that the failures are not accidental: "There is much to indicate that the Russian Federation is behind this."

• Austria is ready to discuss joining NATO and abandoning neutrality because of the Russian Federation.

• German Economy Minister Katerina Reiche said that early retirement at 63 should be abolished and the threshold gradually raised to 70.
There can be nothing good about working “two-thirds of your adult life and spending the remaining third in retirement.” “Unfortunately, too many people have ignored the demographic situation for too long. We will have to work more and longer,” the minister stated.

• A 50-year-old American woman helped North Korean hackers secretly get jobs at hundreds of US companies.
According to the department, she helped North Korean IT specialists get jobs at 309 US companies, including Fortune 500 corporations.
The woman was supposed to manage a “laptop farm” — equipment that she received from employers so that they thought the work was being done in the US. Access programs were installed on the laptops so that they could be controlled remotely by North Korean citizens.

• Israel has begun airdropping humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip,
a change in policy for the blockaded enclave where much of the population is on the brink of starvation.
The airdrops, the first carried out directly by Israel since the 2023 war, included seven pallets of flour, sugar and canned goods - FT.

• Turkey is facing severe forest fires due to abnormal heat.
They started in the eastern resort province of Antalya, but are now rapidly approaching residential buildings in another resort city, Bursa.

• EU airports set to scrap 100ml liquid limits thanks to new scanning technologies.
According to the European Commission, advanced explosive detection systems have already been successfully tested and approved by the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) in June 2025.

• The US will have to spend $934 million to upgrade a Boeing 747-8 donated by Qatar — NYT.
The funds were taken from the budget allocated for the Sentinel nuclear program, which is aimed at upgrading America's outdated land-based nuclear missiles.

• Germany is experiencing a boom in the shadow economy. People can work illegally while receiving assistance.
The share of the shadow economy in Germany’s GDP has grown by more than 11% in just one year. In 2024, its volume was estimated at 482 billion euros, which is higher than the entire federal budget of Germany. According to economist Friedrich Schneider, working illegally is a “tax revolt of ordinary people.”
“Childlessness tax” in Germany
Germany has a financial mechanism that effectively “punishes” childless people — formally, it is not called a tax, but the essence remains the same. The country has a state insurance system for the need to care for the elderly or sick (Pflegeversicherung). Most adult residents of Germany pay contributions to it.
Since January 2025, the general basic contribution has been 3.6% of the salary. And if the resident does not have children, then he additionally pays another 0.6% (called Kinderlosenzuschlag), a total of 4.2%. This difference may seem small, but over the years of working life it turns into significant amounts. Moreover, this “additional fee” of 0.6% is paid exclusively by the insured employee himself - the employer does not participate in this.

Corporate stock market reports, US-EU trade deal, company news and geopolitics

2025-07-24T05:22:24+00:00

Latest stock market news

• News about the US-EU trade agreement helped the stock market grow within 1%.
The XLV and XLI sectors were the leaders of growth.
Everything is calm in the morning.
The US dollar has fallen slightly.
Bitcoin is stable, and there is a correction in alt coins.

• Tokyo and Singapore stocks followed Wall Street's lead, hitting new all-time highs as the Trump administration struck trade deals with Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia, and the European Union and South Korea could be next.

• The EU and the US are close to a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports and eliminate tariffs on some goods, according to European Commission officials. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said US and Chinese officials would meet in Stockholm next week.

• Earnings season has begun in the U.S., with 23% of the S&P 500 companies reporting already. Of those, 85% have beaten Wall Street expectations, according to LSEG. The results of the “Magnificent Seven” — a group of high-performing tech stocks that have powered Wall Street for years — are taking center stage in determining the spending and revenues associated with artificial intelligence (AI).

• Not all sunshine. Nasdaq and S&P futures rose after Google parent Alphabet reported higher after-hours earnings and unveiled an expanded capital spending plan. Stock futures pointed to favorable openings across Europe.

• But it's not all rosy. Luxury goods giant LVMH is expected to report another drop in quarterly sales, adding to investor concerns about a prolonged downturn in the $400 billion market amid U.S. tariffs. The results are likely to show that there is no immediate resurgence in demand for high-end fashion in the key U.S. and China markets. French luxury group Kering reports next week.

• The White House said late last night that Trump would visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday, a visit that comes after his threats to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell rocked U.S. bond markets.

• The US continues to make its markets significantly more accessible to private investors.

• The House of Representatives has approved the All Investors Act of 2025, a bill to ensure equal opportunities for all investors. The law would require the SEC to develop a test that anyone could pass to become an accredited investor, regardless of their wealth or income.

• Demand for 40-year Japanese bonds falls to lowest since 2011 on fears of prime minister's resignation - FT

• Japan to buy 100 Boeing (BA) jets - White House.

• Shares of Japanese automakers rose sharply after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would cut U.S. auto tariffs to 15% from the current 25%.

• Trump to allow China to buy H20 AI chips from Nvidia when China starts supplying magnets - Latnik

• Citadel sends letter to SEC Cryptocurrency Task Force opposing RWA stock exemptions,
demanding equal regulation for tokenized and traditional securities - TheBlock.

• China's share of container shipments from Asia to the US remained below 50% in June for the fourth month in a row
as exporters shifted to Southeast Asia due to US tariffs, - Nikkei. Total shipments fell 7.3% y/y.

• BYD delays mass production in Hungary. The Chinese company will delay mass production at a new plant in Hungary until 2026.
Instead, BYD will start production earlier at a new plant in Turkey, where labor costs are lower.

• Nikkei 225 rises to one-year high after US trade deal

• SpaceX in a letter to investors allowed for Musk's return to politics.

• PayPal (PYPL) will launch a global platform, PayPal World, to connect payment systems and digital wallets.

• Equinor's profit fell 19% in Q2 due to lower oil prices and a long outage at its LNG plant in northern Norway.

• Hershey (HSY) is raising its candy prices significantly due to high cocoa prices.

• SAP reports mixed
results Revenue: €10.61 billion (forecast: €10.63 billion);
EPS: €1.76 (forecast: €1.69).
SAP is the largest component of the DAX basket, accounting for ~15%.

• US stocks are starting to experience waves of “meme trading” (an indicator of growing euphoria) again.
After Kohl’s, GoPro and Krispy Kreme shares were pumping.
GPRO = +80%
DNUT = +45%

• Abivax (ABVX) Stock +400% on Phase-3 success of obefazimod; FDA NDA planned for 2026.

• Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) UK CMA could grant them “strategic market status,” which would increase regulation of their mobile ecosystems.

• Telix (TLX) -16% on SEC disclosure probe; despite +63% revenue, Jefferies cuts target.

• Nokia (NOK) -7%: 2025 profit forecast cut by €50–80 million due to dollar exchange rate and tariffs.

• Hilton (HLT) -2.2%: Below expectations; RevPAR weakens but adds 22,600 rooms.

• Amazon (AMZN) Closes Shanghai AI Center Amid U.S.-China Tensions, Restructuring

• Lockheed Martin (LMT) 2025 sales forecast: $73.75-74.75 billion; $1.8 billion in program expenses, focus on risk management.

• Capital One (COF) Expects +40bps to NIM after Discover deal; net loss due to accounting.

• Hasbro (HAS) Beats Q2 Earnings; 2025 Outlook: Revenue + Mid-10s

• Vicor (VICR) Estimates Gen 5 Power Module Market at $5+B; Rapid Revenue Growth on Demand for Energy Efficiency.

• The Trump family's WLFI continues to accumulate ETH, acquiring more than 6,000 ETH in the last 24 hours.

• Jack Dorsey announced that his company Square will allow merchants to accept BTC in its native form starting yesterday.

• Tether Ventures is a new venture arm of Tether. The arm is designed to invest in projects that advance decentralization, financial freedom, and technological innovation.
The focus is on blockchain infrastructure, fintech, AI, and privacy.

• CZ: Altseason index is rising, “FOMO season” is coming soon.

• FARTCOIN entered the top 10 tokens by open interest on futures exchanges. Researchers claim that 400 organizations were compromised as a result of the hack of Microsoft servers.
Yesterday, Microsoft blamed Chinese hackers for the hack.

• Short of the US dollar became the largest transaction for the first time — BofA. Interest in long gold has fallen by more than half since May.
Demand for EUR/USD is associated with the redistribution of capital from stocks, government bonds and the credit market.
In particular, due to the growing interest of global investors in euro instruments.
This is a trend worth closely monitoring — ING.

• Jim Cramer says he wants to "own" Bitcoin and Ethereum for his children because he sees them as a hedge against US government debt

Stocks after earnings:
GEV +15%
TMO +9%
GD +7%
BSX +4%
MCO +2%
T +1%
CME +1%
APH -1%
NEE -6%
FI -14%

Stocks Premarket After Report
NOW +7%
TMUS +5%
GOOGL +2%
CSX +2%
URI 0%
ORLY -1%
TSLA -4%
IBM -5%
CMG -10%

Key events likely to impact markets on Thursday:
- European earnings: LVMH, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Roche Holding, Nestle, Lloyds Banking Group.
- US earnings: Blackstone, Honeywell International, American Airlines.
- European Central Bank monetary policy meeting followed by comments from President Christine Lagarde.
- Preliminary PMIs for July for the eurozone, UK and US.
- European data: GfK Consumer Sentiment for Germany for August, GfK Consumer Confidence for UK for July.
- US data: Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales.
- Canadian Retail Sales.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Bessent said they are in no rush to replace Fed chief.
Bessent: Trump said he will not fire Powell.

• Oil - EIA inventories:
CRUDE = -3.169M (expected -1.400M / previously -3.859M)

• The Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate to 0.75% by the end of the year - analysts, RTRS poll.

• US - Existing Home Sales (June) = -2.7% m/m (exp. -0.7% / prev. +1%)
CNBC: Home sales fell in June as prices hit record highs.

• Eurozone - Consumer Confidence (July) = -14.7 (exp. -15 / prev. -15.3).

• Trump: "I will only lower tariffs if the country agrees to open its market. If not, the tariffs will be much higher! Japan's markets are now open (for the first time in history!) U.S. businesses will prosper!"

• The US and Japan have signed a large-scale trade agreement.
It provides for $550 billion in investment for Washington and a 15% tariff for Tokyo.
Trump said that Japan will open its markets to American cars and rice. Tariffs on steel and aluminum (50%) and defense commitments were not included in the agreement.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is resigning after a sharp drop in his rating and the loss of his parliamentary majority for the first time since 1955.
He will officially leave his post by the end of August, having completed trade negotiations with the US worth $550 billion.
Ishiba denies resigning.

• US and EU close to 15% tariff deal - FT
Goldman Sachs predicts 30% US tariffs on EU imports will cut eurozone GDP by 0.5% by the end of 2026,
increasing risks to growth.

• The US Olympic Committee has banned men from competing in women's events.

• The US State Department accused Europe of failing to respect freedom of speech and excessive censorship.
In a report in X, the department stated that citizens are being persecuted for criticizing the authorities in EU countries.

• Turkey has demonstrated its first hypersonic missile, the Tayfun Block-4.
It was presented at the IDEF 2025 international defense exhibition in Istanbul.
Tayfun weighs over 7 tons and has a speed of over Mach 5 (~6,000 km/h).

• Malta has decided to completely abandon the issuance of citizenship by investment and introduce a mechanism for granting it for merit or contribution to the development of the state, Malta Today reports.

• The Bank of England is considering abandoning plans to introduce a digital pound.
The head of the Central Bank prefers private payment innovations, not CBDC - BBG. The West has gone the way of stablecoins, and China has chosen CBDC. Although China will try to build private "bridges" between CBDC and stablecoins.

• Ships loaded with copper rush to US to beat Trump's 50% tariff - Bloomberg

• Obama may be held accountable for treason and attempted coup.
For the theory of a “Russian trace” during the 2016 elections – the head of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

Awaiting Alphabet, Tesla, IBM Reports, US-Japan Trade Deal, Stock News and Geopolitics

2025-07-23T06:12:57+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The US stock market tried to decline yesterday on profit taking in semiconductors (the trigger for the decline was the problems with Stargate financing. That's why ORCL fell by 2% yesterday). However, the sell-off did not provoke panic, and as a result, stock indices closed the day near zero.
This was a rotation from semiconductors to the broad market. The growth of the market breadth is a good sign for a bull market.
Everything is calm in the morning. Only the Japanese stock market is growing by 3% after Trump's announcement of the deal. Bitcoin is hovering around $120 thousand.

• Just when U.S. corporate earnings were beginning to show some negative impact from high tariffs, President Donald Trump grabbed the market's attention by announcing a trade deal with Japan, pleasantly surprising investors.

• Everyone was hoping for more - the prospects for a deal between the US and the European Union have definitely improved now that representatives from the 27-nation bloc are due in Washington on Wednesday for more talks. European stock futures rose 1.1% on the optimism.

• South Korea is studying the deal with Japan as its officials travel to the United States for further trade talks. U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm next week to discuss extending the tariffs. The agreement with Japan included a 15% cut in tariffs on U.S. auto exports, down from 25%. That helped boost shares of Japanese automakers, with Toyota Motor jumping 15% and Mazda Motor up 17%.

• A look at Tesla, Alphabet. The broader Nikkei index soared 3.2% to its highest in a year, while 10-year Japanese government bond yields jumped 9 basis points as reduced uncertainty helped the Bank of Japan clear the way for a resumption of interest rate hikes. The dollar initially fell against the yen but last rose 0.2% to 146.9 yen after local newspaper Mainichi reported that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had decided to step down after losing Sunday's upper house election.

• Beyond trading news, investors will be watching earnings reports from Tesla and Google parent Alphabet today, two of the "Magnificent Seven" companies whose shares have largely driven the market higher on optimism about artificial intelligence.

Earnings from U.S. companies have been mixed so far, with investors watching closely for signs of a slowing U.S. economy and the impact of Trump's tariffs. General Motors shares fell 8.1% after the automaker reported a $1 billion hit to its quarterly results due to tariffs.

• Investors are flocking to the most volatile stocks, hoping for quick profits despite the high risks, - JPMorgan. Call options now account for ~68% of total trading volume in the options market, the highest level since late 2021.

• Currency options markets signal the US dollar may be under pressure again - BBG Investors are increasingly worried about the Fed's independence,
as 5-year forward inflation swaps have risen and have broken away from their tight link to 2-year yields - Goldman Sachs.

• Insiders are extremely pessimistic - a record for the entire period of observation, analysts believe.
Only 11.1% of companies with insider activity demonstrated more purchases than sales. This is the lowest figure in history.

• Nvidia's return to China gives Beijing time to ramp up chip production - CNBC

• Chinese shares rise to 8-month highs. Hong Kong shares hit multi-year highs. Construction and energy stocks lead gains.

• RTRS reports that the driver this time is the start of work on a dam project in Tibet, considered the world's largest.
In fact, it is the result of a new wave of fiscal stimulus.

• Chinese company Pop Mart, which produces Labubu toys, is now worth more than Gazprom and Tatneft.
Its market capitalization has reached $42 billion, exceeding the value of Gazprom ($38.7 billion) and has grown 2.5 times since the beginning of the year.
Pop Mart is now even more expensive than (MAT) Mattel (Barbie) — the difference is almost $36 billion.

• Global LNG trade will grow by 5.5% in 2025 and by 7% in 2026, according to the IEA. The IEA expects gas prices at the European gas hub to rise by 16% in 2025 and by 70% in the US.

• US regulators will make the stock market much more accessible to active private investors.
Financial regulator FINRA plans to lower the threshold for “pattern day trading” to $2,000 from $25,000.

• European stock exchanges consider launching 24-hour trading - CNBC.

• UBS: iPhone sales likely fell 18% in June

• Microsoft (MSFT) has hired two dozen people from its DeepMind (GOOG) AI unit in recent months.

• Google (GOOG) is in talks with several media outlets to create an AI project.

• Musk is looking to raise up to $12 billion more for xAI, just weeks after raising $10 billion.
The company needs the funds to buy Nvidia NVDA chips and build data centers.

• Universal Music has filed confidentially for an IPO in the US.

• Netflix (NFLX) is now using AI from startup Runway AI in content production.

• SoftBank and OpenAI squabble over locations for $500 billion Stargate project, WSJ
Despite a high-profile White House presentation, no data center deals have been finalized.
Initial ambitious plans have been scaled back to a small Ohio data center scheduled to launch by the end of 2025.

• Apple (AAPL) likely to win EU antitrust approval for app store fees and rules — RTRS
Medpace (MEDP, +55%). The company raised its 2025 guidance to $2.42 billion-$2.52 billion and improved its EPS forecast on new contracts and buybacks.

• Sanofi (SNY, +2%) is acquiring Vicebio for $1.6 billion (including $1.15 billion upfront) to strengthen its respiratory vaccine pipeline.

• Oracle (ORCL, -2%) is in talks for a $100 million cloud deal with Skydance Media, which is contingent on its acquisition of Paramount (PARA).

• WR Berkley (WRB, +1%) expects premium growth of 8-12%; record EPS and investment income.

• General Motors (GM, -8%) beat expectations: EPS of $2.53, revenue of $47.1 billion; 2025 outlook kept. GM's profit fell in the second quarter due to Trump's tariffs.

• Northrop Grumman (NOC, +9%) raised its forecast for 2025; EPS $8.15, revenue $10.4 billion, active buybacks.

• Tenet Healthcare (THC, -11%) beats forecast: EPS $4.02; revenue $5.27 billion; buyback increased by $1.5 billion.

• DR Horton (DHI, +17%) Q3: EPS $3.36, revenue $9.23 billion; updated bullish guide.

• Danaher (DHR, +1%) beats estimates; EPS $1.80, revenue $5.9 billion; raises full-year guidance.

• Volaris (VLRS, +16%) beats Q2 expectations: revenue of $693 million, but EPADS of -$0.54; 2025 forecast increased.

• Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT, +2%): Suspended shipments of Elevidys at the FDA's request following deaths.

• Strategy (MSTR, 0%) will issue new STRC “Stretch” prefs worth $500 million for further purchase of BTC.

• Conflux Launches Yuan Stablecoin AxCNH for Global Belt and Road Initiative
In early July, China hosted a meeting of the Shanghai State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in response to calls from experts and major Chinese companies to develop Yuan-pegged stablecoins to compete with the US and accelerate the internationalization of the Yuan.

• JPMorgan is considering launching loans secured by clients' crypto assets as early as next year, - FT.

• Telegram crypto wallet has become available to 87 million users in the US.

• Coca-Cola (KO, -1%) to launch drinks with real cane sugar (as Trump wanted) this fall
Coca-Cola's Non-GAAP EPS report of $0.87 beats by $0.03, revenue of $12.5 billion falls by $80 million.

• Lockheed Martin (LMT, -11%): Report below expectations. Revenue: $18.2 billion (expected: $18.58 billion); EPS: $1.46 (expected: $6.54).

• HAL Halliburton +1% after report.

• RTX Raytheon -2%.

• Currently, demand from large investors for ETH significantly exceeds demand for BTC - Santiment.

• Western Union (WU, +6%) is considering integrating payments in stablecoins - CEO.

• AstraZeneca (AZN) plans $50 billion investment in the U.S. as Trump's drug tariffs loom.

• JPMorgan spent a day testing Tesla's robotaxis in Austin and called them "reliable" and "safe."
Tesla's futuristic diner in Los Angeles was packed on its first night.
Musk says if the project really "takes off" (and he's confident it will), such diner-cum-movie-cum-charging stations will pop up in major cities around the world and on highways with Supercharger stations.

• Discount department store chain Kohl's (KSS) is up 38%... It's the new meme stock.
Short sellers account for 49.3% of Kohl's public float. Speculators are attacking short sellers. It's like the good old days of GME.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- Eurozone consumer confidence data for July.
- US earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, IBM.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump: "Xi invited me to China. We will probably meet with him in the near future."

• Europe rushes to conclude trade deal with US before August 1. But braces for the worst – BBG.

• Trump announces trade program with Japan that cuts tariffs to 15%.

• Trump's pressure on China through supply chain partners threatens to slow growth and lose most of its exports to the U.S., Bloomberg Economics

• Trump withdraws US from United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), — NYPost.

• European metallurgy is suffering because of Russia – tougher sanctions are needed.
The EU has banned steel imports from Russia. However, imports of semi-finished products from which this steel is produced are still permitted.

• Thailand is close to an agreement with the United States to cut the 36% tariff on its exports before the August 1 deadline, the finance minister said.

• Slovakia intends to meet 100% of its gas needs with supplies from Russia, — BBG.

• Merz is against the ban on internal combustion engine cars that the European Commission is considering.
The German Chancellor called the idea of obliging companies and rental companies to buy only electric cars "wrong" and "ignoring the needs".
It is necessary to maintain "technological openness", Friedrich Merz said on Monday evening in Berlin.

• Germany is increasingly deporting refugees. The second plane in a week has left Leipzig.

• Bessent: I am going to contact the Europeans about the tariffs on Russian oil.
There are difficult negotiations ahead with the G7 regarding Russia.
Bessent reiterated that the US may start discussing with China the import of Iranian oil, which is subject to sanctions.
He predicts that the US economy will grow by +3% by Q1 2026.
Bessent will take part in US-China talks in Stockholm next week.

• The United States and China will discuss extending their existing trade agreements on July 28-29.
The temporary US-China trade agreement expires on August 12. Bessent said the deadline could be extended.

• Trump on Powell: 'He's going to be gone soon anyway.' 'He's keeping people from buying homes.' Powell will step down as Fed chief in May 2026. Unless he steps down sooner, of course. Bessent: 'There's nothing that tells me he [Powell] should step down right now.'
'He's been a good public servant. His term ends in May. If he wants to see it through, I think he should. If he wants to step down early, I think he should.'
FHA Director Pulte said news of Powell's resignation is coming soon.

• Trump: We are considering eliminating capital gains and real estate taxes.

• US - Richmond Manufacturing Index (July) = -20 (expected -2 /previous -7)

2.1% - average investor return for June and 10.2% since the beginning of 2025 under the management of Masters

2025-07-04T06:44:44+00:00

Masters' clients always profit!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

2.1% for June 2025.
10.2% since the beginning of 2025.

Profits may vary by tenths of one percent for different investors.
Each investor sees their account balance and all open trading positions online.

{loadposition reports}

Last day of Trump tariff proposals, stock market news and geopolitics

2025-06-04T05:17:31+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Strong labor market data has boosted risk appetite, with stocks up 0.6% on average. Small caps have led the gains, a good sign of broader market size. Semiconductors are also rallying.
It's a quiet morning.
Crypto has yet to rally.

• Today marks the deadline for US trading partners to submit their “best offers” to avoid hard tariffs on imports. US tariffs on imported steel and aluminium also come into effect, and investors are more nervous than usual. So far, only Britain has reached a tentative trade deal with the US during Trump’s 90-day pause on a wider range of tariffs. That pause is due to expire in about five weeks, and investors are worried about the lack of progress on deals.

• Adding to concerns, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo had not received a letter from Washington asking for its best proposals for trade talks.

• Trump's on-and-off tariff statements have sent investors fleeing U.S. assets this year and seeking safe havens and alternatives, including gold, as they expect trade uncertainty to take a heavy toll on the global economy.

The big question in financial markets was where the money that typically flowed into U.S. assets would end up. For years, money managers held to the fatalistic assumption that “there is no alternative” (TINA… yes, markets love acronyms), but perhaps there are options now.

As Manishi Raychaudhuri, founder and CEO of Emmer Capital Partners Ltd, puts it: “While Europe may be the obvious destination, relative valuations may favor emerging Asia.” The data doesn’t tell the full story yet. But it does show that investors are reducing their exposure to U.S. assets, and only time will tell where they end up.

• Market hopes for Trump-Xi talks: Asian markets rose on Wednesday, helped by gains in tech stocks, as traders hoped a deal was still possible if U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet this week. South Korean assets were also in focus in Asia. Seoul's benchmark index jumped to a 10-month high and the currency strengthened as the election victory of liberal presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung raised expectations for swift economic stimulus and market reforms.

• Musk's companies have begun to report positive developments as he returns from big politics back to work - CNBC
Elon Musk's xAI plans to sell shares at a valuation of $113 billion - FT.
After this secondary share offering, the company plans an even larger round of investment.
Elon Musk's xAI is seeking $5 billion in debt financing through Morgan Stanley (MS).
The funds will be used to develop AI infrastructure.

• The European Commission has fined Glovo and Delivery Hero €329 million. Following an investigation launched in July 2024, the EC concluded that the companies allocated markets, exchanged confidential information and agreed not to poach employees.

• Central banks bought 12 tonnes of gold in April, the second month in a row that the pace of purchases slowed. Poland led the way, while India released updated data on how much it holds. Several African central banks also said they planned to increase their gold reserves.

• Xiaomi founder expects company's EV business to turn profitable in 2H 2025

• Deutsche raised its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 6,550 from 6,150
, citing tariffs as improving and a lesser-than-expected hit to corporate profits and a resilient U.S. economy.

• In Germany, more than 20,000 Volkswagen employees have agreed to early termination of their employment contracts over the next 4 years - Bild.

• Meta (META, -0.6%) signed the largest energy deal in its history,
a 20-year contract with Constellation to purchase 1.1 GW of nuclear power for its data centers starting in 2027.

• CEG initially rose 15% in premarket trading but ended the day down 0.13%. Apparently the news was in the price and the big players took advantage of the news to take profits.

• WhatsApp will introduce usernames that can be used instead of a phone number.
The feature is currently undergoing beta testing. It will be available to all users with the next iOS update.

• BASF is selling its paints and coatings business for $6.8 billion.
Carlyle (CG) and Blackstone (BX) have expressed interest. Revenue in 2024 is €4.3 billion.

• TSMC (TSM, +1.4%) said demand for AI chips is outpacing supply despite U.S. tariffs.
The company expects AI revenue to double in 2025.

• Coinbase (COIN, +4.9%) suffered a data breach by contractor TaskUs (TASK, -0.3%),
with potential losses of up to $400 million. TaskUs laid off 200 employees.

• Airbus (EASDY) cut May aircraft deliveries 4% to 51.
Accenture (ACN, -0.5%) will acquire Italian aerospace engineering business SIPAL, adding 250 engineers.

• Hims & Hers (HIMS, -3.6%) buys ZAVA to expand in Europe.
Profitability expected from 2026.

• Dollar General (DG, +16%): EPS $1.78 (+$0.29), revenue $10.44 billion.

• Buoyed by new stores. Automakers posted strong sales gains in May as price cuts and inventory reductions blunted the impact of auto tariffs. The question is how long they can maintain pricing instead of trading.

• Oil continues to rise as wildfires in Canada offset news of OPEC+ output increases.

• Chime's (CHYM) IPO terms show fintech valuations are back in touch with reality. Online bank Chime's implied market cap ($9.5 billion) is roughly 5.7 times its 2024 revenue ($1.67 billion), almost exactly in line with SoFi Technologies.

• CRWD shares fall 6% after the report. The company reported well and announced a $1 billion buyback.
But it gave a weak forecast and had already grown strongly before the report.

• HPE shares rise 5% after earnings, with the company noting that its product lineup is beginning to reflect the latest developments in AI in the Middle East.
The company is looking ahead to the July 9 trial date in HPE's battle with the U.S. Justice Department, which filed a lawsuit aimed at blocking HPE's anticipated deal with Juniper Networks.

• WFC shares rise 3% in premarket trading as Fed lifts order limiting the value of assets Wells Fargo can hold.

• European futures point to a modest gain at the open ahead of a series of manufacturing data from the region and the start of the European Central Bank's policy meeting.

• The ECB is almost certain to cut rates on Thursday and continue its easing cycle as muted wage growth, a strong euro and sluggish economic growth point to weakening inflation. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone inflation fell below the ECB's 2% target in May.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- Economic events: May PMI data for the UK, eurozone, Germany and France.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Bostic (Fed) said he still sees the possibility of one rate cut this year,
provided economic conditions allow it.

• Eurozone inflation and labor market indicators.
Flash Core CPI m/m = 0.0% (pop. 1.0%), y/y = 2.3% (pop. 2.7%).
Flash CPI y/y = 1.9% (pop. 2.2%), m/m = 0.0% (pop. 0.6%).
Unemployment Rate 6.2% (pop. 6.3% adjusted).
Eurozone inflation slowed to below 2%, supporting the thesis of further ECB rate cuts - BBG.

• US - JOLTS Job Openings = 7.391m (expected 7.110m / previously 7.200m)
/ The US labour market remains strong.
Expect another big block of data on Friday.
US M2 money supply hits record high - Compound data.
/ This suggests dollar liquidity.
The OECD has cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9%
from 3.3% in December 2024 and 3.1% in March 2025.

• Musk exploded. “I’m sorry, but I can’t take it anymore. This huge, outrageous, pig-swilling Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.
Shame on those who voted for it: You know you did it wrong. You know it.
It will massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to $2.5 trillion (!!!) and saddle the American people with unsustainable debt.
Congress is bankrupting America.”
The White House confirmed after Musk’s words that Trump continues to support the bill.

• Trump signs executive order raising tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. BMO expert: “This will slightly raise the average U.S. tariff rate to about 15%, but more worryingly, it could set a precedent for possible tariff increases on motor vehicles and other industry products such as lumber and microchips, which are currently under investigation.”

• White House: Trump-Xi talks coming soon
Donald Trump's administration is urging countries to submit their best trade deals by Wednesday
U.S. officials are seeking to speed up consultations with a range of partners ahead of a self-imposed 90-day deadline, according to a draft letter to trading partners seen by Reuters.

• The EU is preparing for a new round of trade talks with the US and is warning that it could speed up retaliatory measures if Trump follows through on his threats of new tariffs – the latest of which is a 50% duty on steel and aluminium imports – Bloomberg.
New US sanctions against Russian oil exports could expose the EU to a 500% duty from the US, the European Commission has acknowledged.
It also confirmed that “a number of EU countries continue to purchase Russian carbon resources.”
Sixteen of the 27 EU countries have asked the European Commission for permission to increase their budget deficits by 1.5% in order to increase military spending. - EC press service.

• If tariffs are lifted, the US has no chance of economic survival - Trump.

• Canada in talks with China to lift mutual tariffs - Canadian PM Carney.

• Trump: Hello, Poland, you have chosen a WINNER! "The coalition is ready for this situation."
Tusk will ask parliament for a vote of confidence in his government after Trzaskowski's defeat.

• Vucic announced an attempted coup in Serbia.
According to him, the attempted coup affected kindergartens, schools, health care facilities and energy facilities.

• The Dutch Prime Minister has announced the resignation of the government
following the withdrawal of the far-right Freedom Party from the coalition.

2.8% - average investor return for May and 8.1% since the beginning of 2025 under the management of Masters

2025-06-02T13:37:47+00:00

Masters' clients are in a strong intra-month trend!

The average profit of investors whose accounts are managed by our company was:

2.8% for May 2025.
8.1% since the beginning of 2025.

Profits may vary by tenths of one percent for different investors.
Each investor sees their account balance and all open trading positions online.

{loadposition reports}

Financial markets swing on TACO and FAFO waves, stock market news of companies and geopolitics

2025-06-02T04:40:47+00:00

Latest stock market news

• In the morning, the stock markets of Japan and China are falling by an average of 1%. Futures on US stock indices are also under slight pressure (-0.3%) - all after new tariff threats.

• Markets are riding the waves of TACO and FAFO.
TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is a term coined by a Financial Times columnist and used to describe Trump’s hesitation on tariffs following his April 2 “Liberation Day” speech. When asked about TACO at a recent press conference, the president responded sharply, calling the question “disgusting.”
FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) is an acronym that has been around since before Trump’s inauguration, but is increasingly being heard in conversations among traders. It is used to describe the financial market volatility and chaos that Trump’s decision-making has created.

• Oil is growing by 2% despite the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production. Russia resisted this step, but Saudi Arabia insisted on its own. American oil producers, who have higher production costs, are suffering from the decline in oil prices. But Trump needs cheap oil. The rise in prices could be caused by fires in Canada (risk of losing 500 thousand barrels per day) and the problem in Libya, as well as with Iran after the IAEA report.

Bitcoin is hovering around $105,000, taking out both bulls and bears in turn.

• Is this the dog that didn’t bark? That’s the question Sherlock Holmes fans would ask, given the complete lack of market reaction to US President Donald Trump’s threat to double steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%. The policy change, announced in a tweet, came after the markets closed on Friday evening, so some impact was expected today, perhaps a drop in the Canadian dollar given the size of US steel exports. However, the Canadian dollar actually strengthened against the generally weaker US dollar, while European stock futures were down slightly and Wall Street futures were only marginally lower.

• This could be the TACO meme in action, as investors suggest that "Trump is always a chicken," although he's putting it off until later because the new, higher tariff is set to go into effect Wednesday. Then again, last-minute shenanigans work well on reality TV.

European Union negotiators were unhappy with the latest twist and threatened retaliatory measures, while also making clear that the court's April 2 ruling against the tariffs had given them additional "leverage".

• Trump's latest rhetorical attack on China also appears to have backfired, with Beijing standing its ground. If Trump is counting on a call from Chinese President Xi Jinping to smooth things over, he may be waiting by the phone for a while. It was also somewhat ironic to hear Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent complaining about China holding up vital supplies from the United States, given that it was the United States that started the trade war with the express purpose of restricting Chinese imports.

• "Good news" is dwindling. Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller, speaking in South Korea, said tariffs meant risks to activity and unemployment and risks to inflation. But he remained optimistic about the likelihood of "good news" of interest rate cuts this year, cementing his place as one of the Fed's most dovish officials.

• Artificial intelligence may exceed the energy consumption of Bitcoin mining by the end of 2025.
This is reported by The Verge with reference to Alex de Vries-Gao from the Vrije Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Amsterdam.
According to de Vries-Gao, by the end of 2025, data centers running on AI will consume up to 49% of the electricity of all data centers in the world.

• META shareholders voted against purchasing BTC on balance.

• Bloomberg analyst James Seyfarth said REX Shares has filed a prospectus in the U.S. for a SOL and ETH staking ETF with a potential launch in the coming weeks.
The funds are registered under the 1940 Act, structured as C corporations, and access the spot ETF launch through Cayman Islands subsidiaries, allowing them to bypass the traditional 19b-4 approval process.

• Last week ended with the first net outflow from spot BTC ETFs in a long time (-$144.8 million).
Spot ETH ETFs, unlike BTC, recorded a relatively significant weekly inflow (+$285.8 million) - Farside data.

• The US stock market ended May with its best performance in 20 years.

• JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon urges US to stockpile bullets and rare earth metals instead of Bitcoin.

• Tesla (TSLA) is the only company in its EV segment that has a positive cumulative free cash flow of $16.1 billion and continues to grow. All the others remain “in the red” — from -$0.7 billion (Workhorse) to a record -$22.4 billion (Rivian).
The worst dynamics among the major players: Rivian, Lucid, NIO and Ford's EV division — a deep FCF gap even after 10+ years of operation.
BYD is not on the list for comparison.

• EOG Resources (EOG) to acquire Encino Acquisition Partners for $5.6 billion, expanding Utica shale assets to 1.1 million acres and increasing production to 275,000 barrels per day. EBITDA growth expected to be 10% in 2025.

• Strathcona Resources (STHRF) has submitted a formal offer to acquire MEG Energy (MEGEF) for ~C$5.9 billion in cash and equity.
The strategy is to strengthen Strathcona's market position.

• NetApp (NTAP) forecasts $6.75 billion in 2026 revenue, betting on AI and flash storage.

• Palantir (PLTR) rose 4% after new government contracts. Commercial revenue rose 70% y/y.

• BofA's Hartnett sees several clear "bets against the dollar":
Crypto: Largest weekly inflow since January 2025 ($2.6B)
Gold: $1.8B inflow (annual pace is a record $75B)
EM debt markets: Largest inflow since January 2023 ($2.8B)
EM equities: Record weekly inflow in 2025 ($2B)

• OPEC+ agreed to increase supplies by 411 thousand barrels per day in July, - Bloomberg.

• Hims to cut 4% of staff amid ban on copycat weight loss drugs

• United (UAL) CEO says the budget airline model is dead and claims they are "cheating customers."
The airline also announced a partnership with JetBlue that will allow customers to exchange perks and miles between the airlines.

• Hyundai has built a $7.6 billion electric vehicle plant in Georgia to compete with Tesla and GM,
with plans to produce 500,000 vehicles a year.

• This week: In addition to Friday’s employment report, investors will also be watching reports on private sector payrolls and payrolls. Updated data on the U.S. trade deficit and consumer credit will be in focus, as will data from manufacturing and services, including the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), construction spending and factory orders.
In addition to Powell’s comments on Monday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan and Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee are also scheduled to speak this week.

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak later Monday, but will limit himself to opening remarks at a global financial conference.

Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- UK house prices, European PMIs, US ISM factories survey
- Fed Chair Powell delivers opening remarks at the 75th anniversary conference of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' International Finance Division, while Chicago Fed's Goolsbee and Dallas Fed's Logan participate in a question-and-answer session.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Polish presidential election: Both candidates declared winners, result unclear.
Both the ruling coalition candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, and the opposition's Karol Nawrocki declared themselves winners of the second round.
According to the latest exit poll, Nawrocki is leading by a small margin - he has 51% of the vote, while his opponent has 49%. In the first exit polls, it was the other way around - Trzaskowski was leading, albeit by a slightly smaller margin.
The winner will replace Andrzej Duda.

• Hassett: Trump and Xi Jinping talk expected next week. China is in no hurry to resume deliveries of rare earth metals to the US and other products important to the US. Trump is angry about this and is looking for an opportunity to talk directly with Xi. Xi seems to think his position is strong and is in no hurry to talk to Trump.

• There are too many "office" soldiers in the Bundeswehr, the German Audit Office has found.
The funds that the German military receives from a special fund are too often spent on projects with dubious prospects, and many soldiers are engaged exclusively in administrative tasks, the Bild newspaper writes, citing a report by the German Audit Office.

• China has called French President Macron's statement in Singapore yesterday "double standards"
for trying to link Ukraine's defense to the need to protect Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion.

• I received Hamas' response to the US proposal. It is absolutely unacceptable and only sets us back, - Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff on Hamas' refusal to accept his proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza.

• Britain to build six munitions factories and increase number of long-range missiles in Royal Air Force inventory - Starmer.
UK government discusses buying nuclear-capable F-35A fighter jets from US - The Times.

• Denmark has raised the retirement age to 70 years - the highest among the world's major economies.
In addition to Denmark, another 14 countries are now raising the retirement age, and a third of them - only for women.

• Trump administration cuts funding to several key HIV vaccine research programs - NYT

• Bulgaria is protesting against the introduction of the euro. The actions were organized by nationalist and pro-Russian parties and groups.
The protests took place in the Bulgarian capital Sofia and other major cities. Demonstrators in Sofia carried flags of the pro-Russian party "Vazrazhdane" and spoke under the slogan "The battle for the Bulgarian Lev is the last battle for Bulgaria."

• France. 692 fires, 200 injured, 2 dead and 559 detained.
Paris celebrated PSG's victory in the Champions League.

• New stage of trade wars: Trump decided to increase duties on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%.
Customs duties on import of these alloys will increase from June 4, the US President said, speaking at the US Steel plant near Pittsburgh.

European Commission spokesman: EU ready to take appropriate measures in response to recent tariff hike by US
Commission concludes consultations.

Merz will travel to the United States next week for talks with Trump in Washington on June 5 - Bloomberg.

• Trump has decided to maintain the US role in NATO and appoint a new commander-in-chief of the Alliance – Reuters.
The US intends to deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles in Germany: the decision remains in force under Trump.
This was stated by the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, General Carsten Breuer, in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine.

• The abolition of the veto right would lead to the end of the European Union and a “huge military conflict,” says Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.
His country, along with Hungary, is constantly criticized in the EU for blocking joint initiatives.

• Trump called Musk 50% genius and 50% kid - WSJ. The newspaper found out that during his four months in the administration, Musk has developed a tense relationship with Trump and the White House. The president was skeptical of his initiatives as the curator of DOGE, including a promise to cut the budget by $1 trillion.

• NATO is not discussing Moscow's demand not to expand eastward. The issue was not raised at any of the recent or earlier meetings, informed NATO officials and diplomats told Radio Liberty. According to one of them, a written commitment not to expand is not something Russia "can easily obtain" since the right of states to freely determine which alliance to join is enshrined in a number of international treaties.

• The United States has begun serial production of new nuclear bombs - the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA).
Washington will begin serial production of the updated B61-13 gravity nuclear bomb with a capacity of up to 360 kilotons, which will be placed on strategic aviation aircraft, starting in July 2025, the agency said in a statement.

• Iran has increased its stockpiles of uranium enriched to near-nuclear-weapons levels, raising the alarm at the IAEA.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said that as of May 17, the country had accumulated 408.6 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. This is 133.8 kg more than the previous report in February, when it was 274.8 kg.

• China's factory activity contracted in May, but there are signs of improvement.
China's factory activity contracted in May, although the pace of decline was slower than in April, when the country struck a deal with the United States, an official survey showed on Saturday.

• The EU is to launch an online age verification app, the first step before the launch of an EU digital identity wallet in 2026 without sharing personal data with platforms, FT reports.
The app will help control access to sites with malicious content and put pressure on social media platforms that the EU says are not doing enough to protect minors.

US vs. Europe Trade War, Capital Flight, Company Stock News and Geopolitics

2025-05-26T05:13:12+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Donald Trump and European markets have come full circle again. The euro and European stocks fell on Friday when the US president suddenly decided to impose 50 per cent tariffs on imports from the European Union as trade talks were not moving fast enough. By Sunday, Trump had delayed the tariffs again after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asked for time, and markets were up again this morning. The euro hit its highest level against the dollar since April 30.

Von der Leyen wrote in a message on X on Sunday that she had a "good" phone conversation with Trump.

• Markets may have recovered, but sentiment has not. The weekend's swings only reminded investors how chaotic, impulsive and unpredictable Trump can be, even when dealing with his biggest trading partners. Germany was the EU's biggest exporter to the US last year.

In early April, Trump set a 90-day window for trade talks between the EU and the US, which was set to end on July 9. Trump’s latest trade tantrum came just hours after European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, who heads Germany’s Bundesbank, said markets were close to a nuclear crisis after Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements helped discipline the US administration. Apparently not.

• Investors continue to slowly emerge from the chaos and their overinvestment in the world's largest economy and stock markets. European equity funds attracted €34 billion ($38.6 billion) in cash in the year ended May 16, four times the €8.2 billion poured into U.S. equity funds, according to Morningstar.

By comparison, in 2024, net flows into US equity funds in Europe outnumbered local market-focused products by more than 8:1.

• Due to holidays in the US and UK markets, trading should be relatively quiet on Monday. On the data front, it is also relatively quiet, with important data due this week, including the Fed's inflation target, consumer spending for April, due on May 30. This could paint a clearer picture of the impact of US tariffs.

April has been a volatile month in markets following Trump's tariffs on April 2, but the latest consumer and producer price data have yet to show any signs of inflation.

• The eurozone's largest economies, France and Germany, release consumer price data on Tuesday and Friday, with pan-European data released the following week.

• SoftBank founder proposes creating US-Japan investment fund/ The fund will be aimed at large-scale investments in technology and infrastructure projects. It is assumed that the initial capital of the fund could be about $300 billion. The fund will open up opportunities for participation by institutional and private investors from Japan and the USA.

• The widening gap between US bond yields and the USD/JPY rate is a key signal of rising fiscal risks in the US, - Deutsche Bank.
The strength of the yen amid rising Japanese bond yields does not indicate concerns about Japan's finances, but rather a decline in Japanese investors' appetite for treasuries.

• Oracle to invest $40 billion in Nvidia chips for OpenAI data center in the US, - Reuters.

• Rothschild bank found guilty of money laundering.
The Seventh Criminal Chamber of the Luxembourg District Court found the Edmond de Rothschild Bank (Europe) guilty of money laundering and concealment of criminal proceeds and ordered the confiscation of €25 million previously seized as part of the investigation.

• European authorities are expanding their antitrust investigation into Visa and Mastercard,
with the European Commission's antitrust division this week sending questionnaires to payment terminal providers and fintech companies to find out whether the two largest operators are abusing their market power.

• While BTC ETFs saw record inflows last week, gold ETFs saw $2.9 billion flow out — the largest outflow in more than a decade and the third-largest in history.
More than $4 billion in short positions on Bitcoin are at risk of liquidation if BTC hits $120,000.

• Pakistan to set aside 2,000 MW of power for bitcoin mining, Bloomberg reported.
The initiative will help monetize excess energy and create high-tech jobs, the finance ministry said in a statement.

• The dollar index is showing signs of ending a decade of appreciation and approaching the start of a bear cycle, given historical dynamics, - Otavio Costa.

• OnlyFans has become the absolute leader in revenue per employee, surpassing even such giants as Apple and Nvidia.
The platform has demonstrated impressive efficiency: each of its employees “brings” $37.6 million in revenue to the company.

• Tesla (TSLA) is moving away from autos to bet on autonomy because China has already won the electric car battle, Morgan Stanley.

• Nippon Steel Finally Gets Control of US Steel?
Trump has conditionally given Japan's Nippon Steel control over US Steel, calling the deal a "partnership."
The deal would involve $14 billion in investment and create 70,000 jobs.
While final terms have yet to be finalized, US Steel shares have already soared 21%.

• Nvidia (NVDA) will begin mass production of its new Blackwell chip for China as early as June.
Informatica (INFA) rose more than 25% on Friday amid speculation it could be acquired by Salesforce (CRM).

• Salesforce shares, on the other hand, fell 3% as investors worried about the potential financial risks of the deal.

• Douglas Elliman (DOUG) soared 33% on Friday on news of a buyout offer from Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS).
The offer values the company at more than $4 a share, but the current price is likely to be rejected.

• Gilead (GILD) said its drug Trodelvy met its primary Phase 3 goal for first-line treatment of TNBC,
which could significantly increase the drug's market.

• Palantir (PLTR) received a $795 million modification to its contract with the U.S. Army.
Wedbush believes this strengthens the company's position in the AI sector of government contracts.

• Merus (MRUS) gained 16% on Friday
after positive data from its head/neck cancer drug, which saw a 63% response rate in patients in a mid-phase study.

• Vermilion Energy (VET) sold assets in Canada for 415 million CAD.
The money will be used to reduce debt. The company's focus is long-term income-generating assets.

• Wix (WIX) acquired startup Hour One to boost AI features in web design.
The market reaction was muted, with shares down slightly.

• Wolfspeed (WOLF) has appointed David Emerson as Chief Operating Officer,
a decision that comes amid financial challenges and a business restructuring.

Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- SPEAKERS: ECB President Christine Lagarde, Riksbank board meeting
- COMPANIES: NTS Ackermans & Van Haaren NV AGM, Leonardo SpA AGM
- DEBT AUCTIONS: Resumption of auctions for 3-month, 6-month and 1-year French government bonds.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump delays 50% tariff on EU goods from June 1 to July 9.
"I received a call today from Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, asking for an extension of the 50% tariff on trade and the European Union until June 1. I agreed to an extension - until July 9, 2025 - and was honored to do so. The commission president said negotiations would begin quickly."

• In May, the Trump administration lost 96% of cases in court, says Stanford University professor Adam Bonica.
As analysts at the information resource Data for Democracy note, the percentage of losses for Trump and his supporters in court is rapidly growing. At the same time, the ideological difference between judges plays an increasingly smaller role in decision-making.

• Two candidates – two marches: Poles took to the streets of Warsaw ahead of the second round of the presidential elections.
Tens of thousands of people marched to support their candidates. The mayor of the Polish capital, Rafal Trzaskowski, and historian Karol Nawrocki are vying for victory in the election race.

• Mexico has carried out judicial reform, and now some judges will be elected in direct elections by citizens - Reuters.
The list of candidates includes about 20 controversial figures: from convicted drug traffickers to officials fired for corruption and lawyers for the largest cartels.

• Musk has decided to leave politics due to security concerns, as well as difficulties in achieving results and the negative reaction to his activities, - The Washington Post.
Now he intends to focus more on leading Tesla and SpaceX.

• Gerhard Schroeder's account where he received money from the Russian Federation has been blocked - Bild. Sparkasse Bank no longer credits transfers to the former German Chancellor's account.

• The US criticized the proposal as insufficient, while Trump called it worse than proposals from other countries. In response, the EU prepared duties on $23.9 billion of US goods, as well as an additional list of duties worth $95 billion in the event of escalation, in particular on Boeing products, American cars, bourbon and other industrial goods.
Trump's threat to introduce a 50% tariff on all EU goods would be a crushing blow to key sectors of the European economy: the automotive industry, aerospace, chemicals and food industries - FT
According to the European Commission, the US is the EU's largest trading partner.
The US market accounted for just over 20% of EU goods exports in 2024, which are estimated at more than €530 billion.
Trump is seeking new tariffs on imports from China from the EU as a condition for concluding a trade agreement with Washington - WSJ.

• Trump confirms there will be a "massive" parade in Washington on his birthday.
He said there will be a "massive" parade in Washington on June 14, his birthday.

• Boris Pistorius confirmed the indispensability of the US nuclear umbrella for Europe, — Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Spain remains the only country that has not yet supported NATO's plans for defense spending of 5% of GDP
, the figure demanded by US President Donald Trump — Financial Times.

• Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Canada to enter a technical recession this year,
with GDP forecast to decline by 1% and 0.1% in Q2 and Q3, respectively. The economy is then expected to recover through the end of the year.
At the same time, inflation is forecast to remain above the central bank's target: 2.1% in Q3 and 2.2% in Q4.

• Trump intends to invoke the Cold War-era Defense Production Act
to declare a national emergency over U.S. reliance on Russia and China for enriched uranium, nuclear fuel reprocessing and components for advanced reactors — Reuters.

• Blackout in the French department of Alpes-Maritimes: there was no power and no internet.
Traffic lights went out, film screenings at the Cannes festival were partially stopped, local media write. Screenings were only resumed thanks to a generator. About 1,600 houses in Cannes and neighboring towns were left without power.

• The US has eased sanctions on Syria after Trump's promise - Reuters.
The US Treasury Department has issued a license that allows transactions involving the interim government, the Central Bank and state-owned enterprises.

• $1,000 in a “Trump Account” for Babies.
Republicans propose opening a $1,000 investment account for every newborn in the US – the so-called “Trump Account.”
In theory, the money would be invested in US indices and would only be available to children after age 18.

Selloffs in US stocks and government bonds, stock market news and geopolitics

2025-05-22T05:13:21+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Yesterday there was a wave of selling off American assets - stocks, government bonds and the US dollar fell by 1-2%.
After the morning growth, oil prices returned (dropped) to their starting point.
Bitcoin during volatile trading in the morning updated its historical maximum and is trading just below $111 thousand.
Everything is calm in the morning. In Japan, the sell-off of government bonds has stopped. For how long.

• Markets have seen a sharp sell-off in Treasuries on concerns about the US budget, while in Europe the next test will be how companies cope with an uncertain trade environment. Manufacturing and services sector surveys for May will be in focus on Thursday, with forecasts suggesting that business activity in the eurozone and Germany was broadly stable compared with the previous month.

• European earnings so far show corporate health is better than initially expected, with stocks rising on a temporary suspension of U.S. tariffs and signs that China, a key customer for European companies, is seeking to revive consumption. That has helped the pan-European STOXX 600 outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq this year. Germany’s export-focused benchmark closed at a record high on Wednesday and is the world’s best-performing major stock market. But the path ahead will depend on whether European Union leaders can agree on trade deals with the U.S. and the impact of Germany’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package.

• European futures started the day subdued as risk appetite was clouded by lingering concerns over how the US will be able to finance its ballooning fiscal debt as investors flee US assets.

• President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending bill cleared a major procedural hurdle in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, setting it up for a vote that could come within hours. Investors were also unsettled by a lackluster Treasury auction that reinforced the "sell America" message, weighing not only on the dollar but also on Wall Street, with traders already jittery after Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating to AAA last week.

• The yield on 30-year Treasury notes remained above 5% after hitting an 18-month high earlier in Asian trading. However, not all assets stood the test. Bitcoin prices hit a new record high as sentiment around digital assets improved. The world's most valuable cryptocurrency has surged nearly 50% since the early April sell-off, breaking the $100,000 mark.

• Gold prices are also recovering from recent declines, with investors viewing the precious metal as a safe haven asset during times of uncertainty.

• "Forget the Fed - the real driver of this bullrun may be the US Treasury," - Hayes/

• The US has been demanding that BYD disclose its ownership structure, data storage policies and government contracts since 2018 due to concerns about the presence of BYD electric buses in US transit systems, - Bloomberg/

• The Guardian has exposed a scheme in which UnitedHealth (UNH, -6%) paid nursing homes bonuses to minimise hospitalisations.
Residents could be denied urgent treatment, and one case resulted in brain damage. Leaked documents show staff were financially incentivised to keep the rate of “hospitalisations per thousand” low.

• Options traders are the most bullish on Tesla (TSLA, -3%) since November 2023 /
The Put/Call Ratio has dropped to a level that last coincided with TSLA shares rising 44% and hitting a new all-time high in 4 weeks.

• Palantir (PLTR, -4%) and Divergent team up to accelerate manufacturing.
Palantir will integrate Divergent Technologies' DAPS manufacturing platform to quickly manufacture critical parts using AI, helping close supply gaps.

• Apple (AAPL, -2%) will officially unveil iOS 19 on June 9. Amid Google I/O, Apple announced the date for the presentation of iOS 19 and iPadOS 19 — they will debut during WWDC 2025, which will take place from June 9 to 13. The main presentation will take place on June 9 at 20:00 Kyiv time.
The biggest changes in recent years are expected, including a redesign in the style of visionOS. An updated Siri may also be mentioned, but there are no guarantees.

• Tether printed another $2 billion in liquidity - Arkham.

• If Bitcoin BTC sets a new all-time high, $2.75 billion in shorts will be liquidated - analysts.

• Hong Kong Approves Stablecoin Bill
- The Hong Kong Parliament has formally passed a law that introduces licensing for stablecoin issuers.
- The new system will regulate the issuance of stablecoins pegged to fiat currencies (including HKD and USD).

• BlackRock is now the second largest owner of BTC. The first is “Satoshi”.

• Marks & Spencer has warned of $403 million in losses due to a sophisticated cyber attack
that has disrupted online sales across its fashion, home and beauty segments,
with problems expected to last until at least July.

• SoftBank (SFTBF) is raising $15 billion in loans from Mizuho, SMBC and JPMorgan to invest in U.S. artificial intelligence infrastructure,
part of an ambitious $500 billion plan.

• Target (TGT, -5%) reported weak quarterly results. Adjusted EPS was $1.30, down $0.35 from the forecast, on revenue of $23.8 billion, down $550 million.
Sales fell except for digital, which rose 4.7% thanks to delivery services.

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW, -7%) aims to reach $15 billion in annual revenue by 2030 with its AI-powered cybersecurity platform.

• ARR from new generation products increased by 34% y/y.

• Rio Tinto (RIO, -0.4%) has received approval for its $2.5 billion Rincon lithium project in Argentina,
bolstering the country's strategy as a global player in lithium mining.

• CFSB Bancorp (CFSB) rose 67% on news it will merge with Hometown Financial Group.
The deal is valued at $44 million and will give the new bank $3.3 billion in assets.

• Ford (F, -2%) will give part of its EV plant in Kentucky to Nissan,
allowing the Japanese automaker to bypass some tariffs on imported components.

• Medtronic (MDT, -2%) plans to spin off its diabetes business into a separate company with 8,000 employees in California
to focus on more profitable areas.

• Uber (UBER, -3%) is launching an AI network to automate logistics. Colgate-Palmolive (CL) is already using it to optimize supply chains.

• Viasat (VSAT, -5%) reported a loss of $0.02 per share but beat revenue estimates of $1.15 billion. Moderate growth is expected in FY2026.

• Baidu (BIDU, -4%) had a strong quarter. $2.55 EPS, $4.47 billion in revenue, AI Cloud revenue up 40%.

• Micron (MU, -2%) announced a $350 million convertible note issue to increase funding flexibility.

• FinVolution (FINV, -0.5%) is growing in the Chinese fintech market.
Increased revenue to $479.7 million (+9.4% y/y), EPS $0.39.

• Wix.com (WIX, -16%) had a strong quarter
with EPS of $1.69, revenue of $437.7 million, and creative tool subscriptions up 11%.

• Weibo (WB, +4%) beat expectations with EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $396.9 million
. The number of active users is 591 million.

• WeRide (WRD, +21%) announced a $100 million buyback and expanded partnership with Uber in the robotaxi sector.

• Volvo Cars (VOLAF) and Google (GOOG) expand Android Automotive partnership
- Volvo will be the lead partner in introducing new features.

• Apple (AAPL) has brought Fortnite back to the App Store after a five-year absence due to a dispute with Epic Games.
This could change the economics of the App Store.

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, -0.3%) and Genmab (GMAB, +1%) received FDA approval for Darzalex Faspro,
raising its chances of expanding its use in multiple myeloma.

• OpenAI buys iPhone developer Jony Ive's startup for $6.5 billion.
The ChatGPT maker is buying io to build physical AI products beyond screen apps and sees opportunities beyond traditional hardware. "Computers now see, think, and understand," Ive and Altman wrote.
AAPL shares fell 2.3% on the news.

• Walmart to lay off 1,500 people to cut costs. / It's a drop in the bucket - the company employs 2.1 million people.
But the first one left. Will this trickle become a river of large-scale layoffs in the US economy? - If so, it increases the chances of a recession. We're watching.

• SNOW shares are up 7% this morning after the report.
The software company, which provides data storage solutions to businesses, beat expectations with its results and guidance on Wednesday.

• URBN shares are up 17% this morning after the report.
The clothing retailer beat estimates, helped by higher sales at its struggling namesake stores and, for now, no concerns about tariffs.

Key events likely to impact markets on Thursday:
- Business activity surveys from the eurozone, UK and US, plus weekly jobless claims in the US.
- Remarks from European Central Bank policymakers including Philip Lane and Luis de Guindos are expected.
- Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden and Chief Economist Hugh Pill are due to speak later in the day.
- Comments from the US Federal Reserve's Thomas Barkin are expected.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• EU prepares trade proposal for US to give talks impetus - BBG.

• Merz wants to offer duty-free shopping again.

• Simion, who lost in Romania, accused France of interfering in the elections, Durov said he was ready to confirm this.
The founder of Telegram said he was ready to come to Romania and testify, but the French authorities are not letting him go.

• The presidents of the United States and South Africa met in the White House.
A television was brought into the Oval Office and a video was played in front of the South African president, in which Ramaphosa's government calls for genocide of white farmers.
Ramaphosa responded: We can solve these "public problems" if you give us more money through trade agreements and investment.

• China is seriously concerned about the American “Golden Dome” missile defense project and calls on Washington to abandon its development, says Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning.
“This project increases the risks of the militarization of outer space and an arms race.

• The IMF called on the United States to reduce its budget deficit and public debt.

• MEPs have called for Hungary to be stripped of all EU funds.
"Anyone who completely ignores EU values does not deserve a single euro from the EU budget."

• Taliban's status as a terrorist organization in the US is under review amid the release of American detainees - Rubio
Japan's exports slowed to their worst level in 7 months in April.

• As U.S. tariffs rise, Japan's economy threatens recession - Bloomberg.
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba:
"One way to reduce the trade surplus with the U.S. is to sell Japanese cars made in the United States."

• G7 countries are discussing the possibility of introducing joint tariffs on low-cost Chinese goods
amid the continued growth of exports of goods through online platforms such as Temu and Shein.

• China threatens companies that oppose Huawei chips with sanctions.
However, the Chinese government has not specified a specific punishment for violation.

• Fresh UK inflation data.
Core CPI y/y = 3.8% (exp/ 3.6%/ forecast/ 3.4%).
CPI y/y = 3.5% (exp/ 3.3%/ forecast/ 2.6%).

US Credit Rating Downgrade, Poor China Data, Stock Market News, and Geopolitics

2025-05-19T05:14:56+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The downgrade of the US credit rating after the close of trading on Friday is reflected in quotes today.
US stock index futures are down 1%.
At the far end, US Treasuries are down almost 1%.
The US dollar is down 0.3%.
Gold is up more than 1% and back above $3,200.
Bitcoin has been rising above $107,000 but has not gone higher yet and is just below $105,000 this morning.

• It was a bad day in Asia, as a slump in retail sales in China underscored how far the country will have to go to transition from an export-led to a domestic-demand economy. It is clear that consumers there are not in a mood to buy, and it is not clear that Beijing wants to change that.

So President Donald Trump is telling Americans they should make do with fewer dolls and crayons, while pushing trade policies that indirectly force Chinese consumers to buy more.

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Sunday criticised potential trading partners, urging them to offer "good faith" deals or face receiving a tariff rate sent by letter. He also hinted that the US only has time to deal with 18 major trading partners, leaving the rest to sway in the wind.

That still leaves the effective tariff on U.S. imports at about 13%, the highest since the 1930s and equivalent to a 1.2% GDP tax hike, which Trump is asking Walmart to roll into its margins rather than pass on to voting shoppers.

It will be interesting to see what Target, Lowe's and Home Depot have to say this week about this idea, which is reminiscent of state-run pricing in the Soviet command economy.

• Trump's tax bill. Trump needs revenue from tariffs, in part to fund his tax-cutting package, which has finally passed a House committee and could be voted on later this week. The massive bill is estimated to add $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the national debt over a decade and is one reason Moody's joined its peers in downgrading the U.S. last week.

Ratings haven't really mattered much since the financial crisis, when the collapse of the subprime mortgage market tarnished the reputations of some agencies and funds abandoned their AAA mandates.

But the news appeared to have struck a nerve with foreign investors already worried about the unpredictable nature of U.S. policy, and Wall Street futures fell 1% or more today. Ten-year yields rose about 5 basis points, and the dollar fell, albeit modestly.

• Euro supporters will be pleased by the surprise victory of a pro-European candidate in the elections in Romania, as well as victories for centrist parties in Poland and Portugal.

• The end of the oil boom, - Bloomberg. Overall U.S. oil production growth has likely peaked due to low prices, and shale companies are cutting spending. However, a significant drop in output is unlikely.

• Inflows into spot BTC ETFs continue. Cumulative inflows continue to break records - Farside data.

• Binance, Kraken hit by attack similar to Coinbase - Bloomberg
Binance and Kraken are among the major cryptocurrency exchanges that have been targeted by the same type of social engineering hack recently reported by Coinbase - Bloomberg.

• 5G-A connection launched in China. Speed up to 10 Gbps and direct access to satellites.

• Elon Musk has announced that he will present his vision for a Mars colonization program next week ahead of a possible ninth test flight of the Starship rocket - Reuters.
The talk will be broadcast live on X.

• Several big retailers are set to report earnings this week.
Investors will also be reviewing housing data for April and eyeing a series of speeches from the Federal Reserve following a week in which major U.S. indexes rose and amid mounting pressure from President Trump for the central bank to act on interest rates.

• Britain overtakes China in US Treasury holdings - FT
Britain has become the second-largest foreign holder of US Treasuries for the first time since 2000, overtaking China.
Chinese investment fell to $765 billion, while British investment rose to $779 billion.
China has been gradually reducing its holdings of US securities, shifting its focus to other assets, particularly gold.

• The White House on Friday criticized the decision by ratings agency Moody's Ratings to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, calling it a political decision.

• Sam Altman said that ChatGPT will be able to remember everything about the user in the future. Everything, that's everything: what books he read, what he talked about, what he watched.

• Apple plans to increase iPhone assembly in India to 60-65% this fall, Wedbush says.
It's part of a diversification strategy amid trade risks with China, but the company may return some production to China in the future.

• In recent months, the White House and congressional officials have been scrutinizing Apple's (AAPL) plans to strike a deal with Alibaba (BABA) that would use Alibaba's AI on iPhones in China, the NYT reported.

• According to the Kantar BrandZ 2025 rating, the total value of the world's 100 most valuable brands has grown to a record $10.7 trillion, which is $9.3 trillion more than 20 years ago.
It comes out to almost 11% per annum.
Apple tops the rating for the fourth year in a row with a value of $1.3 trillion.

• Banks are essential to unlock the full potential of stablecoins - PayPal.
This was stated by Jose Fernandez da Ponte, PayPal's senior vice president of digital currencies, during a panel discussion at Consensus 2025 in Toronto.

• Nvidia, Cisco, and OpenAI to Power Stargate UAE Data Center - CNBC
Nvidia CEO says next chip after H20 for China will not be Hopper series.
Nvidia is evaluating how to enter the Chinese market after the US government imposed restrictions on sales of its Hopper H20 chip there, but will not release another chip in the series.

• Trump blasted Walmart (WMT) for raising prices due to tariffs.
“Walmart needs to STOP blaming tariffs for higher prices across the chain. Walmart made billions of dollars last year — way more than expected. Between Walmart and China, they need to, as they say, ‘swallow the tariffs’ and charge their valued customers NOTHING. I’ll be watching this, and so will your customers!!!”

• Nvidia-backed CoreWeave soars 100% post-IPO
as investors see demand for AI outpacing 'risky' business model

• The European Investment Bank is working on a new project to boost European capabilities in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, with the aim of raising 70 billion euros by 2027, its chief executive said.

• Swiss running brand On (ONON) gained $3 billion in the past week,
with Nike and Adidas next.
With the help of Zendaya, Roger Federer and Elmo, On continues to beat revenue expectations on its way to a $20 billion market cap.

• Tesla's (TSLA) robotaxi debut will be invite-only and feature a lot of cameramen.
Tesla's robotaxi debut in Austin in June will go ahead, but it will be by invitation only, said a Morgan Stanley analyst who visited the company's Palo Alto office.

• Nissan has said it is open to working with Chinese state-owned Dongfeng to share production facilities around the world - BBC.
Nissan is currently trying to strengthen its position in the Chinese market, where it faces stiff competition and falling prices. The manufacturer has been cooperating with Dongfeng for more than 20 years, including a joint venture in Wuhan, China.

Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- Final EU CPI data for April.
- Fed speakers include Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, Bank of New York President John Williams, Bank of Dallas President Laurie Logan, Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• China imposes anti-dumping duties on plastic - Reuters.
The US received the highest duties - 74.9%. The EU, Japan and Taiwan received up to 35.5%. Individual companies from Taiwan and Japan received reduced rates of up to 4% and 24.5% respectively.

• The European Union will find ways to overcome any obstacles that Hungary and Slovakia may try to create for the EU and Ukraine, says EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius.

• Canada has maintained 25% tariffs on U.S. goods," Canada's finance minister said, denying that most such tariffs had been suspended.

• The UK and EU are holding a summit next week to discuss the future of bilateral relations.
The sides are expected to consider trade, security and cooperation in a changed geopolitical environment. The summit will be the first such meeting in several years.

• In Romania, the independent candidate, Bucharest Mayor Nicusor-Daniel Dan, is leading in the presidential elections.
According to the latest polls, 46% of voters are ready to support the leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), the far-right George Simion, while 54% are ready to support the centrist Dan.

• The government of a Western European country asked Telegram to silence conservative voices ahead of today's presidential elections in Romania.
I categorically refused, - the messenger's co-founder Pavel Durov.

• On the eve of the presidential elections in Poland, Russian special services have launched a new wave of information attacks on Europe.
In particular, they are implementing a large-scale special operation called Doppelganger, which translates as "Double".
Through the fake pages of well-known media outlets, Russians are massively disseminating disinformation and trying to discredit Ukraine and the European politicians who support it.

• Merz did not rule out sending refugees to third countries and advocated a “more decisive fight” at the EU level against illegal migration.

• Bloomberg: China provided Pakistan with air defense aid and satellite imagery during military clashes with India
Pope Leo XIV officially takes office as Pontiff.

• Bessent said the Trump administration would ensure that US GDP grows faster than the debt,
thereby stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio.

• On prices, the Treasury Secretary said Walmart's price hike warning was a "worst-case scenario."

• Data from China showed a slowdown in the economy
China Retail Sales (YoY): +5.1% (expected +6.0%, previous: +5.9%)
Chinese Unemployment Rate: 5.1% (expected 5.2%, previous: 5.2%)
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY): +6.1% (expected +5.7%, previous: +7.7%)

• Israel has launched a major military operation in the Gaza Strip,
Operation Gideon's Chariot, to destroy Hamas and free hostages, the Israel Defense Forces said.

Trump is working on a plan to resettle a million Palestinians in Libya.
In exchange, the country's leadership is offered to unfreeze billions of dollars that are in the United States. The Palestinians are promised housing and scholarships.
Hamas denies knowledge of the plan and promises to resist.

• US and EU break deadlock to begin tariff talks - FT

• The liberal mayor of Warsaw and member of the current ruling party, Rafal Trzaskowski, will compete for the post of head of Poland in the first round of elections on May 18. His opponents are two right-wing candidates.
His chance of getting into the second round is 31%, according to Politico opinion polls. Back in January, Trzaskowski spoke in favor of Ukraine's membership in NATO and the EU, but at the debate on May 12 he said that "Ukraine should be a buffer zone."

• Trump said he was ready to travel to China for talks with Xi Jinping.

• The Trump administration has eased sanctions imposed on Turkey after it purchased Russian S-400 systems, Erdogan says.

• Five current and former employees of the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) have been arrested on suspicion of corruption in contracts to buy munitions and drones for the alliance.
The first two arrests were announced on May 14 by the Belgian prosecutor's office, while three others were detained in the Netherlands.

• The United States will discuss the withdrawal of some troops from Europe by the end of 2025.
This was stated by US Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker at a conference in Estonia. According to him, the discussion will begin after the June NATO summit in The Hague.

• Saudi Arabia is investing trillions of dollars in economic diversification through large-scale projects.

• The largest influx will be received by NEOM, in particular “The Line” (a futuristic city), worth more than $1 trillion, and the total amount of all NEOM developments will reach $1.5 trillion.

• China has renamed 27 towns in Arunachal Pradesh, a region that India claims as its sovereign territory — Clash Report.
China calls the area “Zangnan,” or southern Tibet, asserting its sovereignty over the region.
India has strongly rejected the move, calling it “futile and absurd.”

• Erdogan announced the discovery of one of the largest gas fields in the Black Sea.

• Trump on the Fed: "Almost everyone agrees that the Fed should cut rates as soon as possible, not drag its feet. But Powell, already a legend for late decisions, will likely screw it up again. But who knows???"

Temporary optimism on stock exchanges and markets, in anticipation of inflation data, company news and geopolitics

2025-05-13T05:27:10+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The US stock market grew by 3-4% on a broad front. Even shares of large pharmaceutical companies were bought up. The only losers were defensive stocks from the XLP, XLU, XLC sectors.
Demand for risky assets led to a slight decrease in prices for US government bonds, and the yield on 10-year bonds again came close to 4.5% per annum. We are expecting data on consumer inflation in the US at 15-30 today.
The threat of recession has decreased, and this helped oil prices rise yesterday.
In flight from risk, gold also fell yesterday to the important support of $3,200.
Bitcoin fell by 2% this morning to $102 thousand.
The dollar showed strength and is trading at 1.11 per euro.

• Six weeks after the unrest over US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs began, the recurring lessons seem to be: wait for details and buy the dip. The China-US rapprochement, which saw the world's two largest economies suspend the toughest tariffs for 90 days, has been better than expected and has been reflected in Asian stock markets, sending Japan higher after a rally in the United States.

• Trump's social media post on Sunday about high drug prices in the U.S. sparked a sell-off in Japanese pharmaceutical stocks on Monday, and the president's executive order itself shifted the focus more to cheaper drugs overseas, sending health care stocks on the Nikkei index higher.

Trump's comments about an expensive "weight-loss drug," presumably referring to injectable obesity treatments from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, could signal pressure to cut spending in the U.S. or increase it in Europe.

Bayer AG's comments after its first-quarter results today could provide insight into how the German healthcare giant plans to navigate an uncertain path forward.

• The US dollar weakened slightly in Asia but still retained most of its gains against the yen, euro and Swiss franc after the trade truce announcement.

Political reversals and doubts about what will happen beyond the next three months remain drags on investment sentiment. Equity futures point to a muted open in Europe and a pullback in the US.

• Analysts expect to see a recovery in German investor sentiment when the ZEW economic research institute releases its May figures today, after tariff concerns sent morale to its lowest level since the start of the war in Ukraine.

• In the US, consumer price index (CPI) data will provide a signal on the timing of potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in a 57 basis point cut this year, down from more than 100 basis points in mid-April.

• Trump has announced a forthcoming reduction in drug prices. Ackman: "It looks like Trump has heard me."
The gist of his idea is to force pharmaceutical companies to agree on global prices. Currently, Americans pay the most and effectively finance the development of drugs for the entire world. If companies are not allowed to dump in other countries, this will either reduce prices in the US or raise them abroad, leveling the system.

• Apple (AAPL) is planning a big 2027 with sophisticated bezel-less iPhones, smart glasses, wearables with cameras, desktop robots and more, - Bloomberg.
Apple is considering raising iPhone prices, not because of tariffs, but because of new features - WSJ.

• Goldman Sachs sees the yuan rising to 7 to the dollar as trade talks progress.
Warren Buffett (BRK.B) now makes $13.7 billion a year from his 5.1% share of the U.S. Treasury market.

• Nvidia (NVDA, +5.4%) raised prices on almost all of its video cards and Ai chips H200 and B200, - Digitimes.
Server manufacturers also increased prices - by 10-15%.
The reason is the transfer of Blackwell chip production to the American TSMC plant, where production, materials and logistics costs have increased.

• Several Tesla (TSLA) employees have published an open letter calling on Musk to step down as CEO, blaming him for the decline in demand for the company's electric vehicles - Electrek.

• Chinese battery maker CATL aims to raise at least HK$31 billion ($4 billion) in a Hong Kong listing,
the world's largest listing in 2025.
PRC - NEV sales (Apr 2025) = 1,226,000 = -0.9% m/m = +44% y/y

• In March, smartphone shipments to the Chinese market grew by 6.5% y/y to 22.77 million units.
At the same time, shipments of foreign brands, in particular iPhone, fell by almost 50% to only 1.89 million devices.

• Xiaomi shares fell 5.7% on the electric car scandal.
Xiaomi offered a carbon fiber hood with “dual air ducts” for 42,000 yuan ($5,800) that was supposed to functionally ventilate the wheels.

• Nissan to cut 20,000 jobs, including previously planned layoffs - Bloomberg.

• Alphabet (GOOGL, +3.4%) dropped from Best Ideas List
due to AI uncertainty.

• monday-com (MNDY) rose 0.3% after a strong first-quarter report (+30% annual revenue) and an increased outlook.

• Tesla (TSLA) +7.5%, Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) also rose thanks to the U.S.-China deal that lowers costs and improves sentiment.

• Shares in shipping companies Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd rose as trade tensions eased.

• Consumer Discretionary: Jefferies rates Five Below (FIVE) and Nike (NKE) as Buys due to their ability to weather tariff headwinds.

• Consumers who own Siri-enabled devices, including iPhones, MacBooks and AppleTVs, may be eligible to file a financial claim as part of Apple's $95 million settlement
over allegations that the voice assistant eavesdropped on their conversations.

• GM hires self-driving car company leader as chief operating officer.
General Motors has hired Sterling Anderson, the co-founder of a self-driving car company.

• The most profitable platform for launching shields on Solana, Pump Fun will share profits from launched shields with the creators of the shields.
98% of tokens on PumpFun are scams and subject to ragpools - Solidus Labs report.

• BitGo exchange has received a MiCA license in Germany, which will allow it to provide crypto services to banks and financial companies throughout the EU.

Citi predicts that within the next five years, stablecoins will move beyond crypto trading and become part of the global economy, replacing part of foreign exchange reserves.

• The total amount of BTC held in US spot ETFs is about 1.175 million BTC, just 6.5k BTC short of the record 1.182 million.
Glassnode reports that recent inflows have offset previous outflows, indicating a recovery in demand for BTC.
Some tech stocks soared again after the Bitcoin funds report.

• Shares of Next (NXTT) Technology Holding soared for a second straight session on Monday after the software services provider and bitcoin buyer reported its holdings of the cryptocurrency.

• Coinbase (COIN) shares are up 11% in premarket trading. The cryptocurrency exchange will join the S&P 500 next Monday, May 19.

Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- UK employment (March).
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and chief economist Hugh Peel speak at separate events.
- Germany ZEW business sentiment (May).
- US CPI inflation (April).
- US earnings: Under Armour, Venture Global.
- European earnings: Bayer, held.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump aims to seal $1 trillion in deals during Gulf trip - Axios.

• China to cut tariffs on US to 10% from 125% for 90 days.
US to cut tariffs on China to 30% from 145% (10% base rate + 20% reciprocal)
Effective May 14.

• The US and China want to maintain and balance bilateral trade, have no intention of breaking off economic relations - Bessent.
Bessent: "The UK and Switzerland have taken the lead in terms of trade agreements, the EU has been much slower"
- We want China to rebalance its economy towards greater consumption.
- The current tariff level for China of 30% serves as a "floor", while the 145% level set on April 2 is a "ceiling" to which tariffs can return after the temporary agreement expires.
- It is unlikely that tariffs on Chinese exports will fall to 10%.
- I hope that most tariff issues will be resolved by the end of the year.

• Trump: We have achieved a full reset with China
The agreement does not cover tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum or pharmaceuticals.
Will probably talk to Xi at the end of the week. Spoke to Cook. Apple will manufacture a lot in the US.

China has agreed to open its market to the US and remove all non-tariff barriers.
Beijing has also promised to stop using fentanyl.
Restrictions on rare earth metal exports from China continue - Chinese media.

• The United States has imposed additional sanctions against Iran.

• Turkish Stream could slow down the EU's energy decoupling from Russia - Reuters
From 2021 to 2024, Russian gas exports to the EU via pipelines fell more than fourfold - from 155 to less than 40 billion cubic meters. At the same time, supplies of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), on the contrary, increased - to about 25 billion cubic meters. The main buyers were France, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands.

• Without strong immigration rules, we risk becoming an island of strangers. Net migration has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said as he unveiled his immigration reform, quoted by Sky News.
Starmer said it was “a strategy that is absolutely essential to my agenda for change, which will finally take back control of our borders and close the book on a miserable chapter in our politics, our economy and our country.”

• $1B Clean Fuel Deal Announced During Brazil President's Visit to China
Brazil announced two Chinese partnerships Monday, including a $1 billion investment from China's Envision Energy to produce clean jet fuel, as part of the country's presidential visit to China. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met with energy officials.

• Britain and the EU will unveil a joint defence and security pact this week that will see London become part of European defence policy.
The sweeping agreement will bring Britain "closest to the EU since Brexit", according to The Times.

• The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has announced it is disbanding.
The decision to cease operations was made at a recent PKK party congress in northern Iraq, the Firat News agency, which is close to the group, reported. The Kurds, who number an estimated 25-30 million, are the largest people without a state of their own. They live in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria.

• Fed's Kugler says it has become difficult to judge fundamental US growth.
US central bank officials are having difficulty assessing the underlying strength of the economy.

• The US Treasury posted a budget surplus of $258.4 billion in April,
the second-largest surplus ever, surpassed only by the record $308 billion surplus in 2021.
The main source of the jump in US government revenue is the collection of capital gains taxes from individuals following the stock market boom in 2024.
Customs duties doubled from $8.2 billion in March to a record $15.6 billion.

• Trump urges Republicans to vote for "ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL."
"We must WIN! But now, with massive cuts to drug and pharmaceutical spending, and huge revenue from tariffs, our 'BIG, GREAT, BEAUTIFUL, WONDERFUL BILL' is so much BIGGER and BETTER. America's Golden Age is upon us."

• Trump flies to Saudi Arabia for $1 trillion investment. On the way, he may fly to Istanbul for a meeting with Zelensky and Putin, if it takes place.

Successful US-China Trade Talks, Stock Market News, and Geopolitics

2025-05-12T05:01:59+00:00

Latest stock market news

• US stock index futures rise 1-2%. In China, stocks rise 0.5-1%. Gold falls 2%. Crypto is calm.
The US dollar is up 0.3%. Commodities are calm.

Take your pick from “significant progress,” “constructive,” “an important first step,” “an important agreement reached,” “good news for the world,” and, by far the best: “As we say in China, if the food is good, time is of no importance.” These were all words uttered by negotiators during the U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva over the weekend, and they do seem like progress compared to the jingoistic war of words that marked President Trump’s initial announcement of 145 percent tariffs.

What was missing was specifics, and it was notable that neither team mentioned actual tariff levels at all over the weekend. A joint statement is expected later Monday that could provide more detail, although markets are skeptical that the White House believes a “deal” is in place.

It's a strange world in which investors trust the word of a communist one-party state more than the United States.

• In any case, markets are relieved that there was no gunfire in the talks, with S&P 500 futures up 1.4% and Nasdaq futures up nearly 2%. European stock futures are up about 0.8%.

The dollar rose modestly in safe-haven assets and Treasuries suffered a visceral sell-off as the market further reduced its expectations for the pace of future Fed rate cuts.

• The odds of a Fed easing have fallen. The chances of a June move are now just 17%, while the odds for July are 59%. Futures are suggesting 63 basis points of cuts this year, down from more than 110 basis points in mid-April.

• The mood was boosted by a fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's statement that he was ready to meet Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday for talks.

• In the economic diary, Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index could hint at further price gains to come, although analysts expect the first clear impact of the tariffs to emerge in the May report. Retail sales are forecast to be flat in April, with risks to the downside given the chilling effect the tariff announcement has had on consumer sentiment.

• Trump said he would sign an executive order this morning to cut prices on prescription and pharmaceutical drugs by 30-80%
The plan could deal a serious blow to pharmaceutical companies, significantly reducing their income: JNJ, MRK, LLY, ABBV, etc.

• Mexico sues Google (GOOG) over renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

• If gold mining companies were a separate sector, they would have shown the best returns over the past year, - Otavio Costa.
Until recently, they were considered unattractive to investors, now the opposite is true. Demand for hard assets is returning interest in mining companies as a strategic and profitable position.

• Apple will earn more than $10 billion in US App Store commissions in 2024,
more than double its 2020 figure ($4.76 billion).

U.S. developers generated $33.68 billion in gross revenue through Apple's payment system, of which they received $23.57 billion after fees. Globally, the App Store brought in $27.39 billion in fees for Apple.

• Banks and brokers are seeing a surge in demand for currency derivatives that beat the US dollar, with particular momentum in Asia - Bloomberg.

• Companies are increasingly requesting hedging transactions that do not involve the dollar, instead using the yuan, Hong Kong dollar, UAE dirham and euro. Demand for yuan-denominated loans is also growing.

• OpenAI in talks with Microsoft over new funding and future IPO - FT

• Most baby boomers can't afford institutional housing and are impacting the housing market by staying in their homes, says 'Oracle of Wall Street'
"That's one of the problems with housing inventory. They're staying in their homes longer because they can't afford to move," - Fortune

• Saudi oil giant Aramco posted first-quarter profit of $26 billion, down 4.6 percent from a year earlier as
falling global oil prices batter the kingdom's economy.

• China's car sales rose for a third straight month in April, up 14.8 percent from a year earlier, as government-subsidised auto trading cushioned the impact of U.S. tariffs - Reuters

• Goldman Sachs disclosed ownership of $1.65 billion in Bitcoin ETFs through exchange-traded funds.
In a March 31 13F filing, the company reported ownership of:
30.8 million IBIT shares worth $1.4 billion;
3.47 million FBTC shares worth $250 million;
Goldman is now the largest owner of IBIT in the world, according to the SEC.

• Texas has reached a $1.38 billion settlement with Google.
The agreement resolves two lawsuits that involved three products that allegedly violated Texas consumer protection laws.

• Global sovereign wealth funds have started buying BTC on a small scale.
But large-scale purchases will not happen until the situation with crypto regulation in the US becomes clearer.
For BTC to reach $1 million, sovereign wealth funds must recognize it as part of the global financial services infrastructure, says Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital.

• Digital health company Omada has filed for an IPO in the US.

• Shares of Insulet (PODD) rose 21% on Friday
after the insulin pump maker reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year profit forecast.

• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) shares fell 14.5% on Friday after
the buy now, pay later (BNPL) loan provider issued a disappointing revenue outlook for the current quarter.

• Tariffs and uncertainty will likely cut bonus pay on Wall Street.
Incentive pay for investment bankers at large firms is expected to fall 13% this year from 2021 levels, according to a report from a consulting firm. But stock traders could benefit.

Weekly Calendar
Monday, May 12
Monthly Federal Budget (April)
Fed Member Adriana Kugler Scheduled to Speak
Reports from Simon Property Group (SPG), NRG Energy (NRG), Fox Corp. (FOX), and Monday.com (MNDY)

Tuesday, May 13
NBF Small Business Optimism Index (April)
CPI (April)
JD.com (JD), On Holding (ONON), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), and Oklo (OKLO) Reports

Wednesday, May 14
Scheduled testimony from Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, Fed member Christopher Waller, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
Reports from Sony Group (SONY), Cisco Systems, CoreWeave (CRWV), Dynatrace (DT), and Alcon (ALC)

Thursday, May 15
Initial Jobless Claims (week ending May 10)
U.S. Retail Sales (April)
Producer Price Index (April)
Industrial Production (April)
Factory Utilization (April)
Business Inventory (March)
Builder Confidence (May)
Scheduled Testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michael Barr
Reports from Walmart, Alibaba, Deere & Co, Applied Materials, Mizuho Financial Group (MFG), Take-Two Interactive, and Cava Group (CAVA)

Friday, May 16
Import/Export Price Index (April)
Construction Starts (April)
Building Permits (April)
Consumer Sentiment - Preliminary (May)
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is scheduled to speak.

• The focus of the week starts with inflation data scheduled for Tuesday.
But investors will also be assessing the outcome of weekend meetings between U.S. and Chinese trade officials after a quiet session on Friday.
Traders will also be watching Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday regarding the Fed's interest rate policy.
And retail sales data will be closely watched Thursday, the same day that retailer Walmart (WMT) reports earnings.
Other results scheduled for the week include earnings from Cisco Systems (CSCO), Alibaba Group (BABA), Deere & Co. (DE), Applied Materials (AMAT) and video game maker Take-Two Interactive (TTWO).

Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
ECB board members Cipollone and Buch attend Eurogroup meeting; Bank of England Deputy Governor Lombardelli and policymakers Green, Mann and Taylor speak.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kugler talks economic outlook.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump announced a “full reset” of relations with China. “We had a very good meeting with Chinese representatives in Switzerland. In a friendly but constructive atmosphere, we agreed on the terms of a full reset of relations. We want to see China open up to American business in the interests of both China and the United States.”

Senior Trump administration officials said the U.S. and China held “productive” trade talks over the weekend, without providing further details.
A Chinese delegation later described the weekend meetings as “candid, in-depth and constructive dialogue” and said a joint statement would be released on Monday.

• Rubio will visit Turkey on May 14-16 to participate in an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers - State Department
Earlier, Putin proposed holding direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on May 15 in Turkey.

• Hassett says new trade deals could be announced this week.

• Iran will adjust its uranium enrichment level to build trust with the US, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.
The minister described the fourth round of Iranian-American talks as “difficult but useful.”

• The ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan appears to be working, although each side accuses the other of violations and disagrees about what was agreed - FT
India opened one of the sluice gates of the Chenab River dam, water began flowing towards Pakistan - media

• The French Armed Forces plan to equip the army with combat robots by 2040.

• Pope Leo XIV outlined the vision for his pontificate on Saturday, calling artificial intelligence (AI) one of the most important challenges facing humanity and pledging to follow Pope Francis' key priorities - Bloomberg.

• The United States is preparing an agreement for Greenland to be included in its sphere of influence - Reuters.
The Compact of Free Association (COFA) stipulates that the United States will provide the country with a wide range of services - from mail delivery and emergency assistance to military protection.
In return, the American military gets freedom of action on the partner's territory, and trade with the United States becomes mostly duty-free.

• Trump may announce US recognition of Palestine during summit in Saudi Arabia - The Jerusalem Post.
The publication's diplomatic source claims that the US president will also announce the creation of a Palestinian state without the presence of Hamas.

• India and Pakistan have agreed to a complete and immediate ceasefire, Trump says.
An Indian government source told AFP that Pakistan was violating the ceasefire.

• China's overseas investment up 28% on US trade pressure.
Chinese companies increased their overseas investment by 28% in the first quarter of 2025 amid Trump's trade crackdown on Beijing.
China - CPI consumer inflation (April) y/y = -0.1% (exp. -0.1% / prev. -0.1%).
PPI -2.7% (exp. -2.8% / prev. -2.5%).

• Taiwan is urgently rebuilding its armed forces to prepare for a possible conflict with China by 2027 and to hold out until the US intervenes in the conflict - WSJ.

• In Spain, they have started to fine for withdrawing large sums of cash without notifying the tax authorities: from €600 to €150,000.
If you withdraw more than €3,000 from your account, you must report it 24 hours in advance, and if more than €100,000 - 72 hours in advance. The warning must be submitted through the official website of the tax authority. After that, the person will receive a receipt, which he must present at the bank.
If a person does not inform the state what he wants to do with his money, he will be fined 1-10% of the amount withdrawn. Banks are also required to report frequent small withdrawals to the authorities.

• Elliott Investment Management is in talks to buy a stake in the Bulgarian section of the Turkish Stream.
However, the talks are at an early stage and there is no guarantee that the deal will be completed.

US tariff talks with China and Great Britain, stock market news of companies and geopolitics

2025-05-09T04:57:16+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The US stock market rose by an average of 1% yesterday. The healthcare sector was under pressure again. Two other defensive sectors, XLP and XLU, were also weak.
The US dollar rose in price, and against this backdrop, gold fell to $3,300.
And Bitcoin has its own life - almost $103,000.
Everything is calm in the morning.

• There is no doubt that markets are more optimistic about an easing of global trade tensions than they were two weeks ago, when US President Donald Trump's administration first began hinting at a de-escalation of relations with China. But whatever hopes are pinned on talks between US and Chinese officials scheduled for Saturday in Switzerland, support for them is not uniform across markets.

• The dollar is still rising against the euro, hitting a month-high, but the safe-haven yen is climbing from a month-low, likely in response to Beijing's defiant tone on Friday, when a vice foreign minister said his country didn't want a trade war, but wasn't afraid of one. In overseas markets, the yuan fell to a one-week low.

• Trump has hinted that the sky-high 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, which are effectively an embargo, will likely be lifted, although the White House has dismissed as speculation a New York Post report that it plans to cut the tariffs by more than half.

In stock markets, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.5%, but gains elsewhere in Asia were more muted and, perhaps tellingly, Chinese bourses including Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped. Wall Street futures were flat on Friday after relatively strong gains overnight. European futures were only marginally higher.

• U.S.-U.K. deal: Washington's ramp-up of a trade deal with London on Thursday left the market somewhat disappointed. Analysts later called it more of a framework than a trade deal, and more style than substance. But if the glass-half-full view of the situation is the first deal since Trump began raising tariffs in earnest, it offers hope that the White House may seek quick deals in the coming weeks to bring some additional calm to markets that have been hit hard by unpredictable U.S. trade orders.

• Crude oil traders appeared to be in a bullish mood, with the Nymex index rising more than 3% on Thursday, while safe-haven gold retreated slightly from last month's all-time high.

• Bitcoin has been particularly buoyant, retreating to $104,000 on Friday. At various times this year, the token has acted as a barometer of risk appetite and expectations for Trump’s policies. But things could get even worse now, according to StanChart digital asset analyst Jeffrey Kendrick. He predicts a breakout of the all-time high of $109,071.86 is “soon.” “It’s all about flows now,” he wrote in his latest note, pointing to both whale buying and ETF inflows. “I apologize, but my Q2 target of $120,000 may be too low.”

• Trump: "I advise you to buy stocks. Believe me, this country will take off like a rocket straight into the sky!"

• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: We want 50% of chips to be made domestically.

• Rheinmetall reported better than expected. The company also raised its sales forecast for 2025 to +25-30%.
Rheinmetall CEO predicts rapid growth in defense spending by NATO countries.

• Toyota (TM, -0.5%) expects profit to decline due to U.S. tariffs and higher material costs. Q1 net income fell 33%, - WSJ.

• Stripe launches support for stablecoin accounts for global payments in 100+ countries.

• OpenAI has hired an additional CEO, Bloomberg has named Fiji Simo to the new role of head of applications. She will report to Altman, who will remain CEO of the entire company and focus on research and security.

• Japanese sogo shosha shares rise on Buffett's 50-year holding plan.
The shares rose after Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett said he expects the holding company to hold its investments in them for 50 years or more.

• China Airlines announced orders for Boeing 777X passenger and cargo models (BA).

• Apple's (AAPL) Watch sales have fallen for two straight years. Apple Watch shipments are down 19% in 2024.

• US banks can now act as executors of crypto transactions at the request of clients.
They can engage in outsourced crypto custody services, and conduct tax reporting on crypto - the currency regulator OCC clarified.

• Arizona signed HB2749 into law, allowing the state to create a strategic BTC reserve.
In Texas, the BTC reserve bill SB21 has passed through the House committee and now heads to a final vote.

• Robinhood (HOOD) is developing a blockchain network for European retail investors to trade tokenized US securities.

• Total inflows into BTC spot ETFs hit new high of $40.62 billion = record.
Coinbase buys Deribit for $2.9 billion, execs say - WSJ
Bitcoin above $100,000 for first time since February,
Ethereum above $2,000 for first time since March.

• World trade leader Maersk reported a 70% increase in profits in Q1.
The forecast for 2025 was left unchanged.
The forecast for the global container shipping market was reduced due to duties.

• Apple (AAPL) seeks stay of court ruling over transactions in its own app store
Epic called the company's actions "a desperate attempt to maintain a monopoly and charge excessive fees."

• Inflows into gold ETFs in April amounted to $11 billion - inflows have continued for 5 months in a row.
Asian countries bought gold for a record $7.3 billion in April - WGC.

• Quantum computing stocks soar
after D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) reported 500% year-over-year revenue growth. D-Wave shares rose 51%, while other sector players like IonQ (IONQ), Quantum Computing (QUBT) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) gained 9-19%.

• Talen Energy (TLN, -1.2%) is considering alternative power supply agreements for data centers after a regulatory waiver.

• Google (GOOGL, +1.9%) denied Apple (AAPL) chief Eddy Cue's claims that search activity was declining,
noting increased activity across multiple platforms. Google shares rose 1.7%.

• Uber (UBER, -1.6%) received a rating downgrade from Wedbush to Neutral from Outperform due to limited near-term growth catalysts.

• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) announced it will issue $450 million in convertible notes through 2030. Shares fell 3.95% in premarket trading.

• Applovin (APP) rose 12% after beating Q1 estimates.

• Jefferies raised its price target on rising advertising revenue.

• Arm Holdings (ARM) lost more than 6% on weak 2026 guidance, although analysts point to potential demand and strong fourth-quarter results.

• Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is near its bottom after a weak Q1 report and a dividend suspension. The company is cutting debt and focusing on expansion in the U.S. and international franchises.

• Fortinet (FTNT) fell 8% on guidance uncertainty, though Q1 results met expectations
. Concerns centered on the company's valuation and future performance.

• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD, +5.3%) missed its Q1 guidance
but showed growth in streaming (+5.3 million subscribers). Its goal is to reach 150 million subscribers by 2026.

• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF, -15.8%) posted a big loss in Q1 and plans to shut down six steel mills to cut costs.

• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, +4.4%) posted strong Q1 results
thanks to record liquids, gas and oil production following the purchase of Chevron's stake in the Athabasca project.

• Donald Trump said the US had reached a trade deal with Britain, the first of a series of deals he had promised with countries around the world.

• Ford Motor Co. (F, 0%) executives told shareholders Thursday that they have no plans to buy back shares or spin off their profitable commercial vehicle operations -- answering questions on both topics at their annual shareholder meeting.

• BYD plans to sell half of its vehicles outside China by 2030.

Stocks in the morning after reports
LYFT +7.3%
DKNG +1.8%
MARA -1.8%
PINS +15.6%
COIN -2.7%
SOUN -5.1%

Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- Bank of England Governor Bailey, Fed Governors Barr, Kugler and New York Fed President Williams speak at a conference in Reykjavik, Iceland.
- Richmond Fed President Barkin and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speak on separate occasions.
- ECB Governor Schnabel speaks at Harvard University.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Germany - Industrial production (March)
+3% m/m (expected +0.9% / previously -1.3%).

• The US has imposed sanctions on a Chinese oil refinery that imports Iranian oil.

• Trump pushes Republican lawmakers to raise taxes on wealthy Americans.
New tax increases for individuals making more than $2.5 million a year and families making more than $5 million a year.

• US Labor Market Indicators
Unemployment Claims = 228K (expected 231K/actual 242K).
Nonfarm Productivity = -0.8% (expected -0.4%/actual 1.7%).
Unit Labor Costs = 5.7% (expected 5.3%/actual 2.2%).

• U.S. wholesale inventories fell slightly in March. U.S. wholesale inventories rose slightly less than initially estimated in March, led by declines in electrical goods, lumber, clothing and farm supplies. Inventories at wholesalers rose 0.4%, revised down from a 0.5% gain estimated last month.

• US-UK trade deal to leave 10% US tariffs in place - CNN
Trump: "The UK trade deal will give the US $6 billion in foreign revenue from the 10% tariffs and $5 billion in new export opportunities."

Latnik: "As part of this agreement, the UK government nationalized British Steel."
The UK government said that US tariffs on auto products were immediately reduced from 27.5%, and duties on steel and aluminum were completely abolished.

• The EU is stepping up measures in response to US tariffs. It has proposed imposing duties on €95 billion worth of US goods and limiting exports of scrap and chemicals to the US by €4.4 billion.

• In a new report, Fitch Ratings notes that the global trade war will reduce growth in the global and European economies.
The forecast for the eurozone for 2025 has been reduced to 0.6%, with the chemical, automotive and technology sectors suffering the most.
All insurance and banking sectors will feel pressure due to financial volatility.

• Poland will no longer demand reparations from Germany for World War II.
This was stated by the Prime Minister of the Republic, Donald Tusk, after a meeting with the Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz.

• Lithuania will spend 5.25% of GDP on defense next year.
The Finance Ministry and economic experts estimate that this could slow economic growth by 0.2%.

• India's currency falls to lowest since 2022 amid conflict with Pakistan

• China uses its own DeepSeek AI model to design advanced fighter jets like the J-15 and J-35, as well as next-generation aircraft like the J-36 and J-50.
The AI speeds up R&D by optimizing stealth, materials and performance, the South China Morning Post reported.

• The Vatican is facing a severe financial crisis. The budget deficit has tripled during Francis’s pontificate, and the pension fund — with liabilities of up to 2 billion euros — may be insolvent.
At the root of the problem is the city-state’s culture of financial opacity.
Francis’s efforts to introduce audits, bring in outside experts and cut costs have met with fierce resistance from the Curia, the Vatican’s administrative apparatus.

• Canada to build first G-7 modular nuclear power plant - Bloomberg.

• Bill Gates will close his Gates Foundation in 2045 and give away 99% of his fortune, currently valued at $113 billion.
The foundation, founded in 2000, will spend $200 billion over its remaining 20 years of operation.

• A new Pope has been elected in the Vatican.
He is Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost. The first Pope from the USA under the name Leo XIV.

Corporate stock market news and geopolitical events, Fed meeting and trade wars

2025-05-07T05:18:42+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Yesterday, US stocks fell by an average of 0.8%. Healthcare stocks were hit. Oil rose in price and recouped all of Monday's decline. In the morning, US stock index futures are up by 0.6%.
The dollar is marking time in consolidation.
Gold tested $3,448 yesterday and is rolling back slightly this morning.
Bitcoin is up by 2.5% this morning.

• After weeks of speculation about a de-escalation in US-China relations, markets reacted cautiously to news that the two countries' top trade officials will meet in Geneva this weekend. It all sounds very tentative.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that Saturday’s meeting would focus on what to talk about. “My sense is that it will be about de-escalation,” he said. But the Chinese side was cautious, citing a proverb in a statement. “There’s an old Chinese saying: listen to what’s said and watch what’s done… if (the U.S.) says one thing and then does another, or tries to use the talks as cover for continued coercion and blackmail, China will never agree.”

However, it boosted U.S. futures, which held on to most of their gains in Asian trading, while Hong Kong shares jumped.

China also announced interest rate cuts and expanded the channel for insurers to channel funds into the stock market, which has won investor approval, albeit not much enthusiasm, as the fiscal spending they so desired remains absent.

• The moves filled the hours ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting where no policy changes are expected but markets will try to gauge policymakers' sensitivity to employment and inflation issues. Markets trimmed expectations for more cuts after data on Friday showed the labor market was holding up for now.

• The Indian rupee weakened slightly against the dollar as the worst fighting in two decades erupted between India and Pakistan. Asian currencies eased after several sessions of gains against the greenback.

• Europe is expected to release mostly second-tier data later in the day, although earnings from healthcare multinational Fresenius and drugmaker Novo Nordisk are also due.

• Bitcoin BTC is signaling growth for the S&P 500, says Tom Lee of Fundstrat/
According to him, the market is expecting a near-term recovery - the potential for growth remains. Waiting for good reports from companies.
The sharp drop in oil prices has forced hedge funds to exit oil and gas stocks en masse, the pace of the sell-off has become a record for 10 years, - Goldman Sachs/

• The stock market's "greed" in the Fear & Greed index is the first since the beginning of the year.
Vanguard forecasts that U.S. stocks will generate about 5.5% annual growth over the next 10 years.
Outside the U.S., the best CAGR is expected - more than 8%.
Goldman Sachs notes that markets outside the U.S., although cheaper compared to the U.S., are not undervalued relative to their historical valuation.

• The Fed made its largest bond purchase since 2021, more than $20 billion in 3-year notes, just a week after providing $3.5 billion in liquidity through the discount window.

• Ford (F, +2.7%) warns auto industry vulnerable to China's rare earth export restrictions - Nikkei
Just a few parts could potentially cause production disruptions, Ford's chief operating officer says.

• Uber (UBER, +0.5%) and WeRide announced a major expansion of their partnership,
bringing autonomous taxis to 15 more cities outside the U.S. and China, including Europe, within five years.

• Waymo, in partnership with Magna, plans to double robotaxi production at a new plant in Arizona by the end of 2026, - CNBC.

• The US Department of Justice is demanding that Google (GOOG) sell its AdX ad exchange and DFP server after a court ruling that it illegally monopolizes the digital advertising market.

• The number of announced buybacks in US stocks is growing rapidly - Deutsche Bank.

• DoorDash (DASH, -7.4%) is buying Britain's Deliveroo for $3.9 billion.

• Walmart+ (WMT) reached a record high of nearly 17.7 million subscribers in April (+35% y/y).

• Tesla (TSLA) has included more than 60 Chinese suppliers in its global purchasing system, - the company's vice president.

• Apollo now estimates the probability of a tariff-induced recession at 90% over the next 12 months.

• Microsoft (MSFT) unveiled two new next-generation Copilot+ laptops that can run AI models without the internet - CNBC

• The spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields has been positive for more than six months.
Analysts warn that historically such a sharp flattening of the curve to positive levels has often preceded recessions.

• BofA Securities said its clients bought $4.5 billion in U.S. stocks last week, marking the second straight week of inflows.

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR, -12%) received significant praise from Wall Street analysts following its latest quarterly results and guidance.
Wedbush Securities raised its price target to $140, citing confidence in Palantir's growth story and its potential to become a $1 trillion company within three years.

• Microsoft (MSFT)-backed OpenAI has agreed to acquire coding tool Windsurf for $3 billion, its largest acquisition to date.
The move is expected to strengthen OpenAI's capabilities against rivals such as Anthropic and GitHub.

• ON Semiconductor (ON, +0.3%) reported first-quarter revenue of $1.45 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.55, beating the average forecast.
The company is focused on its “Fab Right” initiative to reduce manufacturing capacity and improve gross margins. While automotive revenue declined 26%, the AI data center segment saw strong growth, and ON’s silicon carbide-based solutions are gaining traction in the EV market.

• Datadog (DDOG) shares rose 0.3% after its first-quarter results and revenue outlook beat expectations.
Datadog's strong performance is driven by rapid growth in the cloud security market.

• Brookfield Asset Management (BAM, +2%) reported first-quarter earnings and revenue that missed expectations.
Despite the miss, fee income rose 26% year over year. The company raised $25 billion in capital during the quarter.

• Google (GOOG), in partnership with Range Media Partners, has quietly launched a new film and TV production initiative called “100 Zeros.”
The initiative aims to support both scripted and unscripted projects. The partnership also includes a program to explore the relationship between humanity and AI through short films.

• IonQ (IONQ, -1.3%) completed the acquisition of ID Quantique, expanding its capabilities in quantum networking.

• GlobalFoundries (GFS, -3%) reported better-than-expected first-quarter results,
with revenue up 2% year-over-year to $1.59 billion,
driven by growth in automotive, communications infrastructure and industrial IoT.

• Credit Suisse to pay $510 million for hiding U.S. taxpayer assets.
Swiss international financial services group Credit Suisse Services AG has pleaded guilty to tax violations, entered into a separate plea agreement to avoid prosecution for its actions in Singapore and agreed to pay more than $510 million.

• Constellation (CEG, +10%) is shifting focus to grid-connected AI data center energy projects.

• Hims & Hers shares jump 18% as first-quarter sales more than double.

• AMD +2% after report. The company beat expectations: “We got off to a strong start to 2025 as year-over-year growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by strength in our core business and expansion in data centers and AI.”
And it improved expectations.

• UPST down 16% after earnings: Shares of the AI-powered lending platform are falling in after-hours trading as investors look for higher returns.
The company cut its outlook for the current quarter, though it maintained a healthy outlook for the full year.

• The Fed's high interest rates have created a threat to demand from borrowers, many of whom are struggling to keep up with bills and rising costs of living.

• RIVN -2% post-report. The company cuts its 2025 sales forecast and raises its capital expenditure forecast on demand concerns.

SMCI down 5% after report. The company again lowered its forecast for this financial year.

• EA up 5% after report EA lowered its profit and revenue forecasts but improved its forecast for growth in a key demand metric (net orders) after concerns earlier in the year about gamer fatigue.

• CSCO +1% this morning. Cisco says it has a new chip that will allow “quantum networks to scale” and reduce the time it takes to deploy useful quantum computing from decades to five to ten years.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- US Federal Reserve meeting.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Eurozone Business Activity Indicators: Eurozone Services PMI (Apr) = 50.1 (exp. 49.7/ prev. 51.0).
Eurozone PPI Inflation Indicators: y/y = 1.9% (exp. 2.0%/ prev. 3.0%).

• US Trade Balance data.
Trade Balance = -140.50 billion (expected -136.8 billion/previous -123.20 billion).
Exports = 278.50 billion (previous 278.50 billion).
Imports = 419.00 billion (previous 401.10 billion).

The U.S. trade deficit with other countries widened to a record $140.5 billion in March as U.S. companies panic-buy overseas goods due to tariffs.

• The People's Bank of China has resumed monetary stimulus.
The interest rate on loans to commercial banks will be cut by 0.25% to 1.5%. The central bank also cut the reserve ratio - the amount of money banks must hold in their reserves.
High tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump have begun to hurt China's export-dependent economy, and Chinese authorities are making desperate attempts to save the economy from collapse.

• India launched a military "Operation Sindoor". Sindoor is a red ritual powder that is applied as a drop on the forehead of married women and widows.
India launched a missile strike on "terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir" from where terrorist attacks against India were planned and launched.
A total of nine targets were attacked.
Pakistan launched a retaliatory missile strike on an Indian air base in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Pakistan's air defenses allegedly shot down five Indian fighter jets.
Earlier, Pakistan's defense minister said that Islamabad would not allow "any other country to live on this planet without us."

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent:
"We are currently in discussions with 17-18 key trading partners, but we have not yet started a dialogue with China."
First quarter GDP figures are expected to be revised upward.
"There is no evidence that the US is in recession."
"The US will never default - the debt ceiling will be raised."

• US Commerce Secretary Lutnik:
- It's time for other countries to open their markets to the US
- Agreements coming soon
- The first trade agreement should be with one of the 10 largest economies.

• Hegseth discussed official Pentagon business in at least 10 Signal chats – WSJ. In at least one case, Hegseth asked his aides to disseminate information about plans for a military operation to foreign countries.
/ Another candidate for “departure.”

• The number of senior officers of the US Armed Forces will be reduced by 20%. This follows from the published memorandum of the department. In addition, it is planned to reduce the number of senior officers of the army and navy by 10%, as well as the number of generals of the National Guard by 20%.

• Hungarian Commissioner Blocks EU Plan to Wean Off Russian Energy, Orban Once Again Attacks Zelensky
The Hungarian government's actions run counter to its formal commitment to be independent of its national political interests - Politico.

• Britain and India have struck a trade deal amid tariff tensions with the US.
The deal sees India gradually cut import duties, with the vast majority of goods sold under the trade becoming "completely duty-free within a decade".

• EU expects Trump to expand tariffs on goods worth €549 billion, covering up to 97% of exports, - Bloomberg
The EU is preparing proposals to reduce barriers and increase investment in the US.

• The EU's plan for a phased phase-out of Russian gas includes a ban on European companies signing contracts for energy supplies from Russia.
The new restrictions could lead to an increase in LNG supplies to Europe from the US - RTRS.

• China expressed its readiness to host the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission for a new round of China-EU leaders' summit.
Xi Jinping: "China and the EU should jointly oppose unilateralism. We are ready to work with EU leaders to expand mutual opening-up and properly resolve frictions and differences."

• Chinese retailers' advertising in France and the UK is at an all-time high.
Shein and Temu are shifting ad budgets to Europe and Brazil as Trump imposes new tariffs.

• China on the brink of deeper deflation. China faces the risk of a deflationary spiral as ultra-high U.S. tariffs force exporters to shift goods to the domestic market. The move could further depress prices in an economy already suffering from weak demand and excess capacity, CNBC.

• Poland has accused Russia of significant interference in the presidential elections.
“During the current presidential elections in Poland, we are facing unprecedented attempts by Russia to interfere in the electoral process,” said Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Technologies Krzysztof Gawkowski.

• CDU leader Friedrich Merz failed to gain a majority of votes in the Bundestag to become Chancellor of Germany on his first attempt.
This is an extremely rare case: since 1949, all candidates nominated by the President of the FRG have always been elected on the first ballot.
He was nevertheless elected in the second round.

• Saudi Arabia is preparing to strike a major mining and mineral deal with the United States.
The Saudi cabinet announced the pending agreement in a statement carried by the country's state news agency on Tuesday. Details of the agreement were not disclosed.

• The Canadian province of Alberta may hold a referendum on secession from the country in 2026, according to the province's premier.
Alberta's authorities are unhappy with the central government's policies, and the Liberal Party, which won the recent elections, in their opinion, does not represent the interests of the region's residents.

• The Israeli Air Force destroyed the international airport in the Yemeni capital Sani.
The terminal and all passenger planes were destroyed. They also attacked the Dahban power station.

A busy day of stock market events, possible recession from tariffs, company news and geopolitics

2025-04-30T05:28:23+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Yesterday, the stock market rose uncertainly by an average of 0.6%. But this morning, everything is giving way on futures. The reporting season is becoming increasingly gloomy amid the threat of recession.
It is encouraging that oil is methodically getting cheaper – WTI is again below $60, and Brent is below $63.

• Investors will have a ton of data to pore over on Wednesday as they cap a month of change, highlighted by turbulent U.S. trade policy that has hammered markets and hurt businesses and consumers around the world. First up in Europe are preliminary inflation data from France and Germany, as well as growth figures for both economies and the wider eurozone bloc. The U.K. also publishes house price data.

• It remains to be seen whether the data will confirm the need for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), but markets are currently leaning towards another round of easing in June. Earlier this week, two ECB policymakers warned that the trade war with the United States could dampen the eurozone's nascent recovery and the bloc could face difficulties over tariffs.

• Then there are U.S. GDP and core PCE price index data, which show the world's largest economy is expected to grow just 0.3% in the first quarter. In fact, data on Tuesday showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened to a record high in March as businesses stepped up efforts to import goods ahead of massive tariffs, suggesting trade is a major drag on growth.

• Investors have a lot to digest at the end of the month, having already had a wild ride following US President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office. But chaos appears to be the new normal these days.

There was little cause for optimism in markets on Wednesday, as relief from a possible easing of global trade tensions was offset by a worsening economic outlook and gloomy signals from corporations worried about Trump's tariffs.

• Despite Trump's efforts to soften the blow of his auto tariffs and signs of progress in broader trade talks, details remain scarce: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he had reached one deal with a foreign power.

• Delivery giant UPS said Tuesday it would cut 20,000 jobs to cut costs, while General Motors scrapped its guidance and postponed an investor meeting, joining a list of companies that have scrapped 2025 forecasts or downgraded their outlooks.

• Stocks struggled to find direction, with U.S. index futures falling and the U.S. dollar on track for its worst monthly performance in two years.

While the sell-off in US assets that gathered pace earlier this month appears to have subsided for now, confidence remains fragile and the recent spate of economic data gives investors little reason to return.

• U.S. consumer confidence fell to a nearly five-year low in April and job openings fell sharply in March, signs that cracks are beginning to show in the economy.

• The world's second-largest economy is also starting to feel the pressure amid ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States. China's manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, a survey showed on Wednesday, as Trump's steep tariffs cut short a two-month recovery.

Still, Beijing is betting that Washington will take the initiative first in a protracted trade war as officials push ahead with stimulus plans for this year but hold off on new measures.

• Amazon (AMZN, -0.2%) Will Start Showing How Much Trump's Tariffs Add to Each Product - Punchbowl.
Shoppers Will See the Real Price of the "Trade War" Right in Their Shopping Cart.
AMZN Shares Slid After the White House Accused the Company of "Hostile and Politically Motivated Actions."
Trump Called Bezos and Decided - No Trump Price Tags at Amazon

• Trump's tariffs are disrupting one of the main online sales in the US - July Prime Day on Amazon, Reuters writes. Many sellers have already decided not to participate in the sale, hoping to sell goods at a higher price on regular days or to save their assortment for the future.

• Foreign investors sold $22 billion of U.S. stocks in April, GS reported, following a record $41 billion selloff in March, the biggest in more than a year.
European investors led the selling, according to fund flows data.
But foreigners still own about $16 trillion of U.S. stocks, about 23 percent of the total U.S. market.

• Alibaba (BABA) unveiled Qwen 3, a new AI model with advanced hybrid inference for developers.

• Goldman Sachs CEO: Trump's growth forecasts had to be cut in first 100 days
US policy is creating a dangerous level of uncertainty.
It's too early to judge where US policy is heading, but it's time to do something about the debt and deficit.
US government bonds remain a safe haven.

• The Warren Buffett Index remains at its third-highest level in history despite the recent sell-off in stocks.
The Warren Buffett Indicator is a ratio of a country's total stock market capitalization to its GDP. Buffett considers it one of the best ways to gauge whether a market is overheated: If the indicator is significantly above 100%, the market may be overvalued.

• The CEOs of Nvidia (NVDA), Eli Lilly (LLY), General Electric (GE) and other companies will visit the White House,
where Trump will unveil more than $2 trillion in U.S. investment commitments made in the first 100 days of his second term.

• Amazon Launches First Project Kuiper Satellites. Amazon (AMZN) has successfully launched the first 27 of a planned 236 Project Kuiper satellites into orbit, beginning the rollout of its satellite internet network that is set to compete with SpaceX's Starlink.

• Latnik said the US would speed up mining, support the construction of its own energy infrastructure and reduce dependence on the general power grid.
Miners would be allowed to build power plants and data centers near natural gas fields.
Integration of BTC into national economic accounts is also being considered.

• India is using its 590 Boeing planes order ($67 billion) as a way to reduce its trade surplus with the US ($47+ billion) and an argument to avoid new tariffs, Bloomberg said.

• Trump wants to soften the impact of auto tariffs - plans to avoid overlapping duties and ease levies on imported parts used in U.S. auto production - WSJ.

• Oil prices are falling amid unstable trade relations between the US and China. Brent crude futures fell by $0.44 to $65.42 per barrel, while the cost of American WTI crude fell by $0.40 to $61.65 per barrel.

• There is a positive buzz around WLD, with word that Sam Altman will be announcing a new social platform based on Worldcoin today at the upcoming summit.

• BlackRock purchased 10,360 BTC worth $971 million.

• 21Shares filed with the SEC to launch a spot DOGE ETF.

• Tesla (TSLA, +2%) will deliver its first Semi electric trucks within six months. The company also said it plans to reach production of 50,000 trucks a year by 2026 despite tariff pressure.

• Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn has officially announced that the company is going AI-first—that is, putting artificial intelligence at the center of its strategy.

• Meta (META) has released Meta AI V1, the first official version of its own AI app.

• Apollo warns that Nonfarm's Friday release could be much worse than market consensus or even negative
, as the survey was conducted after the Liberation Day tariff announcements amid high uncertainty for business.

• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) +0.5% After posting impressive first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations,
the company attributed its success to membership growth and new product launches, leading it to revise its 2025 financial outlook upward.

• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) +23%
when it announced a strategic partnership with Novo Nordisk (NVO) to distribute weight-loss drug Wegovy.

• Boeing (BA, -0.2%) got a boost after S&P Global Ratings decided not to downgrade its credit rating to junk status.

• Joby Aviation (JOBY, +2%) announced a breakthrough in its electric air taxi program,
successfully completing manned flights that transitioned from vertical takeoff to horizontal cruise and back.

• Altria (MO, +1%) updated its full-year earnings forecast despite a mixed first-quarter earnings report in which it beat earnings expectations but missed revenue.

The tobacco giant cited falling supply volumes and competition from illegal products as factors that affected its performance, although higher prices eased the situation somewhat.

• Honeywell International (HON, +5%) reported strong first-quarter earnings, beating expectations and raising its full-year earnings outlook.
The company attributed the gains to higher sales in its Building Automation and Power segments, as well as a growing order book that positions it well to navigate tariff challenges.

• Spotify (SPOT, -3%) reported a 15% year-over-year increase in Q1 revenue and a 12% increase in subscribers.
Shares fell on concerns about potential price increases and market dynamics weighing on profitability.

• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, +6%) showed resilience in its latest results as the company emphasized continued investment in next-generation projects that are not impacted by tariff threats.
This stability is supported by a strong order book and recurring revenue, providing stability in uncertain times.

• Ares Capital (ARCC, -3%) reported mixed results for the first quarter,
with net investment income beating expectations despite a decline in interest income from investments.

• Brinker International (EAT, -15%) reported strong third-quarter results, helped by strong sales at Chili's.
Despite that, shares fell 8.5% in pre-market trading as investors weighed the impact of broader market uncertainty on future results.

• Satellite maker Apex raises $200M to boost production for Golden Dome.

• Wells Fargo said Tuesday that its board of directors has approved a share repurchase program worth up to $40 billion.

• Food distributor Sysco (SYY) cut its full-year forecast due to weak restaurant traffic,
adding that California wildfires and severe weather also impacted demand for fresh fruits, vegetables and meat products to restaurants.

• Visa (V) shares are up 1% this morning after the report. Visa's earnings show that spending remains healthy.
Spending growth was strongest among high-net-worth individuals, but Visa saw solid trends overall.

• SNAP shares fall 14% morning after earnings
as Snap sees its ad business taking a hit ahead.

• FSLR shares fall 11% morning after earnings
Tariffs force First Solar to cut sales and profit forecasts

• SMCI shares fall 15% on morning after earnings report
Super Micro warns of significantly lower-than-expected fiscal third-quarter revenue and profit

• NVDA shares also fell by 2%.

Other stocks in the morning after the report:
- MDLZ +2%
- OKE - 3%
- BKNG - 4%
- SBUX - 6%

• Toyota to partner with self-driving car leader Waymo to develop self-driving cars.
“Toyota aims to create a zero-failure society and become a mobility company that enables mobility for all. We share a strong sense of purpose and a common vision with Waymo to improve safety through automated driving technology.”
Waymo, which began as the Google Self-Driving Car project in 2009, now offers fully autonomous ride-hailing services in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Austin, and is rolling them out to other U.S. cities. The company also has a partnership with ride-hailing leader Uber.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- France and Germany preliminary inflation (April).
- Eurozone, France, Germany preliminary GDP (Q1).
- UK house prices nationwide (April).
- US GDP, advance (Q1).
- US core PCE price index (March).

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Fresh Eurozone data:
Business Climate 0.67 (exp. N/A / pop. -0.72).
Consumer Confidence -16.7 (exp. -16.7 / pop. -14.5).
Services Sentiment = 1.4 (exp. 2.2 / pop. 2.2).
Industrial Sentiment = -11.2 (exp. -10.1 / pop. -10.7).

• U.S. Trade Balance (Mar-Feb) = -$162B (-$142.8B expected / -$147.85B prior).
Businesses have been rushing to replenish inventories, and the trade deficit will narrow sharply in April.
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings = Actual: 7.192M, Forecast: 7.5M, Pop: 7.568M.
Job openings fell more than expected in March and are hovering near a 4-year low.
U.S. CB Consumer Confidence = Actual: 86. Forecast: 88. Pop: 92.9.
Latest Data:
Atlanta FED GDPnow (Q1) = -2.7% (-2.5% expected / -2.5%).
Dallas Fed Services Revenues = 3.8 pop 1.3).
Texas Services Sector Outlook = -19.4 (-11.3 pop).

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:
- We are committed to long-term tariff revenue and trade deals.
- Tariffs will cost jobs in China.
- China will bear the brunt.
- Tariff revenue could be used to reduce the tax burden.
- Income tax cuts are likely to be included in the tax bill.
- We will negotiate with at least 17 partners over the next few weeks.
- Trump is creating strategic uncertainty in the talks.
- The 'window of uncertainty' will narrow.

• Chinese companies control about 90% of the global market for commercial drones and critical components for them.
American UAV manufacturers are also focused on the Chinese supply chain, according to a study by Drone Industry Insights UG.

• China Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (exp. 49.8, prev. 51.2). Chinese manufacturing fell less than expected, but the impact of Trump's tariffs is yet to come.

• Democrat Thanedar has brought seven articles of impeachment against Trump. He accuses Trump of massive abuse of power, flagrant violation of the Constitution and tyrannical abuse of power that undermines democracy.
This is the first formal impeachment attempt in Trump's second term.

• China has accused the US of starting a trade war and demanded that the threats stop if Washington really wants to reach an agreement
. The US should seek a dialogue with China on tariffs.
We need a dialogue based on mutual respect with the US.

• China is ready to develop relations with Canada based on mutual respect - Chinese Foreign Ministry.

• China is starting direct shipments to Peru from the port of Guangzhou, the country's largest shipping hub in the south,
in a move that will cut logistics costs and boost trade with Latin America - CCTV

• China could run out of copper reserves - FT The country's market is experiencing "one of the worst shortages in history" amid fears of US tariffs.

• The global economy is threatened with recession due to the tariff shock from the US - analysts, RTRS survey.

• Trump proposes income tax cut through tariffs. Proposes to eliminate income tax for most households, but the math doesn't add up - WSJ

• The Hungarian Parliament voted to withdraw from the International Criminal Court.

• The European Union may separate Moldova's accession process from Ukraine's because Hungary is resisting negotiations with Kiev.
This was stated in an interview with Europa Libera Moldova by European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos.

• Malta must stop issuing 'Golden Passports' - EU court An EU member state cannot grant its citizenship - and certainly not EU citizenship - in exchange for investment because it "effectively reduces the acquisition of citizenship to a mere commercial transaction", the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg has ruled.

• In Spain and Portugal, as of the morning of April 29, power supply had been restored to almost all consumers after large-scale power outages.
In Spain, they will check the version that the large-scale blackout in the country could have been the result of sabotage - Europa Press. According to the publication, the resolution states that if the incident is recognized as sabotage, it can be considered a "terrorist crime" in accordance with the Kingdom's Criminal Code.

• Britain reports unusual power fluctuations ahead of Spanish blackout.
The UK grid operator reported unexpected power frequency changes on Sunday morning. Around 2am, the Keadby 2 gas-fired power station experienced a power outage, followed by a failure of the Viking Link interconnector between the UK and Denmark.
The cause is still unknown.

• China collected information about the leaders of the Alternative for Germany - Spiegel.
According to the German magazine, this is the conclusion reached by German prosecutors who brought charges against 44-year-old Jiang G. and his accomplice. They are suspected of working for the Chinese secret services.

Trump-Powell rivalry, stock market news and geopolitics

2025-04-23T05:11:42+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Yesterday, US stocks rose broadly by an average of 2.6%. Government bonds and the US dollar also rose in price. All on positive hopes of de-escalation of the trade war. This optimistic trend has continued since the morning.
Bitcoin rose to almost $93 thousand. Gold fell and is trading just below $3,400.
I wonder how long the market will react with a rapid growth or fall to every word of Trump? After all, much of what he says simply pumps up emotions, except, of course, his decrees.

• Listening to President Trump on Tuesday, it seemed as if all the vitriol directed at Fed Chairman Jay Powell — the threats, the insults — was some kind of crazy misunderstanding. Now Trump says he had “no intention of firing him,” but was merely hinting cautiously at a rate cut or two.

At the same press conference, Trump said the exorbitant tariffs on Chinese goods imposed after the rapid escalation of the tit-for-tat trade war — so high that the actual numbers have become irrelevant — would soon be reduced “significantly.”

• The market reaction was immediate, with investors rushing back into the dollar after several days of heavy selling, dubbed the "sell-off of America," that sent the currency to multi-year lows against currencies such as the euro and the Swiss franc.

Wall Street also saw stocks rise, helping to boost stock markets across Asia and looking set to support Europe as well. With just a week left until the symbolic 100th day of Trump’s second term in the Oval Office, one might think that market participants would have grown accustomed to his relentless streak of sharp turns and sharp reversals.

Instead, there is a lot of confusion and numerous theories about what is going on behind closed doors.

• Many analysts have suggested that with the dollar in freefall, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stepped in again to be the voice of reason, explaining how disruptive any intervention in an independent central bank would be to markets. He is also believed to have done so during the Treasury market collapse earlier this month, which led to the delay of the “Liberation Day” tariffs.

• US-Japan talks a precedent? However, many analysts insist that concrete trade agreements need to be reached before real stability returns to markets. The Trump administration has invited its old ally Japan to the first round of talks, which could set a precedent for other trading partners. A source told Reuters that the two sides are approaching a temporary agreement, but the most pressing issues are being put on hold for now.

• Bessent echoed Trump's assertion that de-escalation with China is likely, but called future talks with Beijing "tedious" and the two sides have yet to agree to even begin talks. At least for now, the winds of change appear to be blowing in a favorable direction for markets.

• Tesla, X and SpaceX boss Elon Musk told analysts he would significantly scale back his chainsaw work on DOGE to focus on running his own companies. Tesla shares jumped 5.5% in after-hours trading, though that's only a dent in the stock's nearly 50% drop from its December peak.

• Trump: 'No intention to fire Powell.'

• China has reduced its import of cars from the US to a 10-year low, according to Chinese customs data.

• The US Justice Department has ordered Google (GOOG) to sell its Chrome browser in an antitrust case - WSJ. It also wants Google to end its agreements to be the default search engine on smartphones and give competitors access to its data.
The company has rejected the claims, calling the proposed measures a "competitors' wish list." The ruling could set a precedent for regulating Big Tech and, if implemented, could result in multibillion-dollar losses for Google.

• Cryptocurrency bigwig Paul Atkins has been officially sworn in as the 34th Chairman of the SEC.

• Citi hires for FX as trading volumes rise, currencies volatile

• Open AI would be interested in acquiring Google Chrome - executive

• Goldman Sachs predicts that gold will reach $4,000 by the middle of next year as geopolitical tensions and doubts about fiat currencies continue to increase gold's appeal.

• The US is introducing duties of up to 3,521% (!) on imports of solar panels from a number of Southeast Asian countries, - Bloomberg. For example, duties for Cambodia reached 3,521%, for Vietnam - 396%, and for Thailand - 375%. The duties were the result of an investigation that revealed dumping and government subsidies from these countries.
Vietnamese indices fell by more than 5%.

• The U.S. is pushing India to give Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) full access to its $125 billion e-commerce market as part of ongoing trade talks.
With a 26 percent tariff on Indian exports hanging in the balance, Washington calls current restrictions on foreign retailers “non-tariff barriers.”

• Investors are moving capital out of the US and into Europe. Germany is increasingly seen as a new safe haven. The yield gap between 10-year US Treasury bonds and German Bunds has widened to 1.95 percentage points, the highest since February. - Holger Zschäpitz

• Circle announced the creation of the Circle Payments Network (CPN), a new payments infrastructure for banks, neobanks, fintechs, wallets and other market participants. The network aims to provide instant, low-cost and transparent cross-border transfers using regulated stablecoins, including USDC, EURC and others. Participants include major international banks.

• Eric Trump: “Under my father’s presidency, the Bitcoin price will exceed $250,000.”

• XRP leads altcoin inflows last week - Coinshares.

• Dutch bank ING is preparing to launch a new stablecoin together with a number of other banks and crypto companies.
The goal is to use the opportunities of the new European MiCA regulation, which opens the way for the issuance of regulated stablecoins in the eurozone. According to the rules, issuers are required to have a license and keep reserves in EU banks.

• GoldmanSachs Chief David Solomon: A stressful time for markets, but by no means a crisis.

• "Trump's team is looking for a weak dollar, but a sharp strengthening of the yen is forcing leveraged traders to exit positions in stocks and bonds.

• It's good that BTC understands that if bond yields rise, the Fed will have to print money," - Arthur Hayes.

• Pharmaceutical companies are wary as the Trump administration considers a policy of linking U.S. drug prices to those in other developed countries.
Such international reference pricing could significantly impact the industry, as it is expected to be implemented through the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The potential policy is seen as a more critical issue than pharmaceutical tariffs, given that U.S. drug prices are currently three times higher than those in other developed countries.

• Amazon (AMZN) shares rose 4% after Wells Fargo said AWS had suspended leases for some data centers, particularly overseas.
The move is seen as part of routine capacity management rather than a change in expansion plans. But AWS CEO Kevin Miller confirmed there were no fundamental changes.

• Standard Lithium (SLI) shares rose 4% after its Southwest Arkansas project was designated a transparency project by the Trump administration,
a status that provides increased federal support while positioning the project as a reliable domestic source of lithium.

• Northrop Grumman (NOC) shares fell 13% after the company reported a sharp decline in first-quarter profit and revenue, reflecting significant costs related to the B-21 bomber program.
The company also cut its full-year profit forecast amid manufacturing changes and the winding down of space programs.

• 3M (MMM) shares rose 8% after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results despite warning of the potential impact of tariffs.
The company maintained its full-year outlook to account for the impact of tariffs, while noting the challenges to its financial outlook due to ongoing trade negotiations.

• Lockheed Martin (LMT) shares rose 1% after strong quarterly results and reaffirming full-year guidance.
The defense contractor reported a 4% increase in sales and a rise in net income, maintaining the previous year's momentum.

• Verizon (VZ) reported first-quarter results that beat expectations, with revenue up 1.5% and earnings per share rising.
The company continues to forecast growth in wireless revenue and adjusted EBITDA, despite a widening postpaid phone net loss.
VZ shares rose just 0.6%, underperforming the broader market.

• The US Federal Commission will sue Uber over its push for a paid subscription. The company is accused of worsening its free service in order to promote Uber One for $9.99 per month.

• META could lose $7 billion in ad revenue in China, according to a new estimate from analysts at research firm Moffettnathanson.
Meta doesn’t offer its services in China, but advertisers from the country, namely Femur and Shin, buy ads on its platforms to reach customers in the U.S.

• Gasoline prices to fall as Trump's trade war kills oil demand - The Telegraf.

• Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche promises to invest $47 billion euros in the United States.

• Investment plans include new research and development sites in four U.S. states and the creation of more than 12,000 jobs.
Shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) jumped 9% on Tuesday.

• Wall Street analysts have begun covering the Nvidia-backed artificial intelligence company (NVDA), which made its public debut in late March.

• VW Group returns to China with new models and its own self-driving systems.
Volkswagen Group unveiled five new models developed for China and its own self-driving system in Shanghai on Tuesday.

• Billionaire Carl Icahn acquired a 34% stake in Bausch Health (BHC).
U.S.-listed shares of Bausch Health, the parent company of contact lens maker Bausch + Lomb, rose 10%.

• Musk: "Next month I'll spend more time on Tesla instead of DOGE." That's why even after a bad report, TSLA shares are up 5% in premarket trading. They are also helped by the growth of the broad market after Trump's positive tweet about not firing Powell.
Musk has decided to start saving TSLA. That's what shareholders expect from him.

• INTC shares are up 2% in premarket trading. The company will lay off 20% of its workforce (about 22,000 people).
Last year, it laid off about 15,000 people.

• ENPH shares fall 10% to $48 in premarket trading after earnings.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
- Flash PMI reports from the UK, Germany, France.
- Eurozone trade balance.
- Fed Governor Waller, St Louis Fed President Musalem, Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speak.
- IMF and World Bank meetings continue in Washington.
- Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaks at Leeds University Business School.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE May 13-16 - White House.

• Trump said he would attend Pope Francis' funeral in Rome with his wife Melania. "We look forward to being there," the US president wrote on his social network Truth Social. Zelensky also plans to attend the Pope's funeral.

• The US will face a recession this year, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) reports - WSJ. The IIF calls the expected recession "artificial," caused by policy changes, especially on trade and migration due to Trump's possible return, rather than an external shock like 2008 or COVID.

• The US economy could shrink by 0.8% in the third quarter and by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts.

• The Fed could cut rates six times during 2025, starting as early as June.

• China to impose sanctions on US Congress members and others for 'gross interference' in Hong Kong affairs - South China Morning Post.

• China has begun to disguise its own goods as South Korean in order to avoid American duties - Reuters, citing data from the South Korean customs service.

• The Chinese Foreign Minister held a telephone conversation with his British counterpart - Chinese Foreign Ministry. We are ready to cooperate with the UK to remove all distractions - Chinese Foreign Ministry.

• Britain close to major military trade deal with EU - The Times

• The IMF has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in 2025.
- The IMF has revised down its China GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 4.0% from 4.6% in the January estimate.
- The IMF has lowered its Japan growth forecast to 0.6% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage points from the January forecast.
- The IMF has lowered its UK GDP forecasts to +1.1% in 2025 from the previous +1.6% and to +1.4% in 2026 from the previous +1.5%.
- IMF Gourinchasis: The US dollar has depreciated in an orderly manner, without any shocks to currency markets.

• The government budget deficit in the eurozone countries in 2024 decreased to 3.1% of GDP compared to 3.5% a year earlier.
In the European Union countries - to 3.2% of GDP from 3.5%.
At the same time, the government debt in the countries using the single European currency increased to 87.4% of GDP from 87.3%, in the European Union - to 81% of GDP from 80.8%.

• Von der Leyen: World 'queuing up' to work with Europe amid Trump tariffs
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said countries were ready to work with trusted trading partners in Europe after Trump imposed broad trade tariffs.

• In Canada, less than a week before the parliamentary elections, the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is in the lead
- results of a Nanos Research poll.

• A Japanese delegation will deliver a letter from Prime Minister Ishiba to Chinese President Xi this week as Tokyo tries to avoid being caught in the crossfire of rising trade tensions between China and the United States.
Japan's finance minister is visiting Washington this week, where the yen issue will be among the topics of discussion.
Although Tokyo does not expect a currency agreement, Japan wants to understand the U.S. position on the exchange rate ahead of broader trade talks. There is little room for intervention or rate hikes.
Japan has sold $20 billion in foreign debt.
The sale was likely prompted by Japanese pension funds selling U.S. Treasuries, according to the Financial Times.

• Future of 21st century will be defined by India-US partnership - Vance Vance explains the real goal of Trump's trade war.
Not to bring old jobs back to the US, but to rebalance the entire world trade.

• Bessent: Trade talks with China 'will be difficult' The goal is not to decouple the US and Chinese economies. The goal is to rebalance with China, but the question is whether Beijing is ready for that.

• Trump's approval rating has fallen to 42%, the lowest since returning to the White House, - Reuters.

• Trump calls on Erdogan to remain neutral regarding a possible US strike on Iran and to allow the Pentagon access to Syrian airspace.

• Trump will make the Fed a scapegoat for any economic fallout from his trade war, and delegitimize the Fed if it doesn't cut rates - WSJ

• Fed's Harker says US poverty rate may be underestimated - Reuters

• The White House is exploring ways to encourage women to have more children - New York Times. Among the methods under consideration: a $5,000 grant for mothers after each birth, stipends for parents, funding for government programs to educate women about their menstrual cycles so they know when it's best to try to get pregnant, and more. Among the program's sponsors: Vice President J.D. Vance and Elon Musk.

• US government officials sabotage Musk's weekly reports by generating them via ChatGPT and sending obscene language - WP.
Officials were ordered to send 5 new achievements weekly. Some agencies simply send a copy of the same report. Some jokingly began to respond in Russian. One government employee was punished for responding with obscene language.

Today financial markets and stock exchanges are closed, company news and geopolitics

2025-04-18T05:30:12+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Yesterday the US stock market traded at zero. NVDA was sold again. Insurance PGR was caught in the sell-off. UNH was the leader of the decline. But XLV held up thanks to LLY's 14% growth.
Among the sectors, we note the growth of XLP and XLE.
Today the financial markets are closed - Good Friday before Easter.

• Yesterday, OpenAI released their latest model, GPT-o3, which is now much better at writing code, sometimes outperforming even experienced developers
. xAI added a “memory” feature to Grok.
The chatbot will remember the details of conversations with the user.

• Google introduced Gemma for drug development. The neural network analyzes proteins, molecules, diseases and scientific data to predict the properties of drugs. This speeds up the creation of drugs several times.
In tests, Gemma showed 81.7% accuracy against 64.5% for its predecessors.

• Intel will also have to obtain a license to supply AI chips to China - FT.

• BTC and gold show surprising resilience amid high macroeconomic uncertainty.
The current correction in BTC remains within the typical corrections seen in past cycles - Glassnode review.

The volume of stablecoin transactions exceeded the volume of payments through the Visa system for the first time in 2024, according to Bitwise.

• The US may ban DeepSeek from buying American technology and restrict Americans' access to its services, - NYT.

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) shares are stable.
TSMC reports better-than-expected results, but provides a neutral guidance.
- Revenue: $25.77 billion (expected: $25.37 billion)
- EPS: $2.14 (expected: $2.07)
- While the world's largest chipmaker reported a strong quarter, the outlook is clouded by trade tariffs of under 10%, which could rise to 32% if no deal is reached in 90 days, hitting Taiwan and TSMC's key customers Nvidia and AMD. -
The company remains optimistic about future growth thanks to demand for artificial intelligence.
TSMC has denied talk of a merger with Intel (INTC), and says it has no intention of sharing technology.

• "Trump's tightening tariffs on China have exposed an inconvenient truth: Most American drones rely on Chinese components," - Forbes.

• JPMorgan said new U.S. restrictions on Nvidia's (NVDA) chip exports to China will hit the company's revenue by $15 billion to $16 billion this year.
Nvidia (NVDA) plans to modify chips to comply with U.S. export restrictions in an effort to maintain access to the Chinese market.

• After the market collapse due to Trump's tariffs, Santander overtook UBS to become continental Europe's largest bank by market capitalization.

• Bankruptcies in the US continue to rise. In the first quarter of 2025, 188 large companies declared bankruptcy - the highest number in the last 15 years.

• UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported worse-than-expected results. Shares fell 22%!
- EPS: $7.20 (expected $7.27);
- Revenue: $109.58 billion (expected $111.56 billion).
- The company sharply cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $26-$26.50 from the previous range of $29.50-$30, noting rising expenses and operational challenges.

• SpaceX Takes Lead in Competition (Expected) to Develop Trump Defense Project - Reuters Musk's company is leading a consortium with Anduril and Palantir to try to build a "Golden Dome" missile shield
The company's proposal calls for a satellite constellation of 400 to more than 1,000 satellites, as well as a possible subscription model for the US government.

• Williams (Fed) said tariffs this year would definitely push up inflation and reduce economic growth,
but he noted that it was hard to predict how that would affect future rate policy because the Fed needs to make sure that a one-time price increase does not have a lasting effect.

• Eli Lilly (LLY) shares rose 14%. Its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist orforglyprone met its primary target in a Phase 3 study for type 2 diabetes. The drug showed an average weight loss of 8% at the highest dose, sending shares of rivals Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) lower.

• Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang's visit to China comes amid new U.S. export restrictions on its H20 chips.
Huang discussed new chip designs with Chinese customers, underscoring the importance of the Chinese market for Nvidia.

• Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK) are set to benefit from the CDC's expanded use of RSV vaccines for adults aged 50 to 59 at higher risk,
following a unanimous vote by an advisory committee.
Moderna (MRNA) is also seeking U.S. approval to expand the label of its RSV vaccine.

• American Express (AXP) reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates, thanks to higher net interest income and card fee profits. Despite a decline in network volume, the company maintained its 2025 guidance.

• Blackstone (BX) reports Q1 profit that beats expectations, with record inflows amid market volatility
BX shares rose 0.8%.

• Micron MU is changing its business units to highlight demand for AI data centers.
The new segment, called the “cloud memory business unit,” will focus on products used by hyperscalers as well as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips that help quickly run data-intensive AI tasks. Investors are keeping a close eye on HBM chips because they’re used in conjunction with GPUs for AI, particularly from Nvidia.

• ABB to boost local U.S. manufacturing to reduce tariff impact. U.S. judge rules Google (GOOG) is an illegal online advertising monopoly. GOOGL shares fall 1.4%.

• Netflix (NFLX) shares rise 3% in premarket trading after the company beat expectations and reiterated its 2025 guidance.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has arrived in the US - Euractiv. Acting as a mediator between Europe and the US, Meloni is using her friendly relationship with Trump to ease trade tensions and clarify US goals.

• Trump, in an attempt to isolate China, first wants to conclude a trade agreement with Japan, India and South Korea, - The Telegraph.

• Trump's approval ratings are plummeting: the US president has begun to irritate his voters at a record pace, - The Economist.
Now, almost one in five of his 2024 voters disapprove of his approach to inflation and prices. Those who ensured his victory are now turning against him.

• The U.S. could be on the brink of defaulting on its $36.6 trillion debt as early as August unless Congress raises the debt ceiling - Congressional Budget Office.

• The US is keen to sign a trade deal with Britain in the next few weeks - The Daily Telegraph, citing a White House source.

• U.S. Customs and Border Protection has collected more than $500 million in revenue from Trump's latest tariffs - CNBC.
In total, Trump's 15 trade orders have raised more than $21 billion since January 20, 2025 - CNBC

• Chinese refiners have cut their U.S. crude imports by 90% and are now buying record volumes of Canadian oil, Bloomberg reports

• India offers US companies looking to leave China the chance to move production to its territory - The Economic Times.

• Are we heading for a hot war with China? The short answer is: I hope not, but I am increasingly concerned about the trends - Admiral and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis in a column for Bloomberg.

• California Governor Gavin Newsom sues Donald Trump over tariffs he imposed - POLITICO.

• Europe wants to take Russia's place in space. The implementation of its strategy is led by the Polish startup Creotech. In April 2025, the Polish company Creotech signed a contract with the European Space Agency to implement the Camila project. Its goal is "to create a constellation of at least three observation satellites, a ground segment, launch satellites and manage the mission." The contract is worth almost €52 million.

• The US State Department has closed its counter-disinformation unit, including Russian disinformation. The GEC at the US State Department was created in 2011 to counter the propaganda of terrorist groups. In 2024, R/FIMI was opened on the basis of the center to counter foreign disinformation campaigns, including from Russia, Iran and China.

• Trump: "The Fed should have cut rates long ago.
Powell is always late and wrong. His firing can't happen soon enough."

• ECB interest rate decision.
- Actual: 2.40% (-0.25%). Forecast: 2.40%. Previous: 2.65%.

The main reason for the decline is growing trade conflicts, especially after Trump's new tariffs.

• US Labor Market and Economic Activity Indicators:
Unemployment Claims = 215K (exp. 225K/pop. 224K).
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) = -26.4 (exp. 2.2/pop. 12.5).

• Britain has successfully tested a new weapon that can effectively destroy swarms of drones - FT. The "RapidDestroyer", developed by a consortium led by French defence giant Thales, uses high-power radio frequency radiation to remotely disable or destroy drones' electronics.

Failed US-Japan Tweet Talks, Stock Market News, and Geopolitics

2025-04-17T05:10:40+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Yesterday, the US stock market was covered by sales again. Stock indices fell by 2-3%. Only the oil stock sector grew.
In the morning, stock index futures grew by 0.5%. Tomorrow is a day off in the US. Therefore, today is the expiration of monthly options.

• U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly scuttled tariff talks with Japan, sending markets into a sigh of relief that disaster had not happened. Japan became the first major trading partner to open direct talks with the United States, a test for more than 70 countries seeking better terms on the massive tariffs that Trump announced and then abruptly shelved this month.

Trump said he had made "great progress" in the talks, which he attended with top Japanese negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who gave few details in remarks to reporters just before the Nikkei opened trading in Tokyo, although he said the currency issue was not discussed in Washington.

• Nasdaq futures rose 0.6%, pointing to a recovery from Wednesday's 3% drop, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 0.3%, marking a third straight decline for the pan-European index.

The U.S. dollar rose against the euro and the yen following U.S.-Japan trade talks but remains on track for a fourth straight week of losses.

Safe-haven demand pushed gold to a new all-time high of $3,357.40 an ounce in Asian trading. U.S. Treasuries, whose safe-haven status has been eroded in recent weeks, were steady in Tokyo, with yields little changed.

• The top 10 stocks now make up 37.7% of the S&P 500, the highest concentration in 60 years - JP Morgan.
JP Morgan has warned that the S&P 500 could fall another 26% to 4,000 points.
Analysts call this a "worst-case scenario" if the economic and geopolitical situation worsens.

• Powell: Fed ready to provide dollars to global central banks in case of their shortage
Cryptocurrency is becoming more popular. Legal basis for stablecoins is a good idea.
I think banking regulations on cryptocurrencies will be relaxed.

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he hoped Trump's tariffs would help end "the army of millions of Chinese people who are screwing tiny screws into iPhones" so that manufacturing could move to the U.S. and be replaced by robots.

• Hermès (HRMS) has overtaken (LVMH) Louis Vuitton to become the world's most valuable luxury brand with a market cap of €248 billion versus LVMH's €244 billion.
LVMH's weak Q1 2025 earnings - a drop in sales of fashion, leather goods and alcohol - sent its shares tumbling 7%, wiping out $23 billion in market value.

• Trump's new tariffs could cost U.S. semiconductor equipment makers more than $1 billion a year - Reuters
The largest U.S. chip-making equipment makers - Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA - could each suffer losses of about $350 million a year.

• ASML reports worse than expected.
Revenue: €7.74 billion (forecast: €7.78 billion); EPS: €6.00 (forecast: €5.79)
The company reports low margins and a pessimistic guidance for Q2.
ASML shares fell 7%.

• Japan's government pension fund said it had changed its benchmark for foreign shares, excluding Chinese stocks from the domestic market.

• TSMC (TSM) Raises U.S. Manufacturing Prices by 30% Due to New Trump Tariffs High costs at its Arizona plant have forced U.S. customers like Apple, AMD, and Nvidia to quickly reorder and ramp up volumes at TSMC's U.S. plant. With limited capacity for 4nm chips in Arizona, demand has surged, allowing TSMC to raise prices.

• Reuters: Trump tariffs derail Tesla's (TSLA) plans to launch new Cybercab and Semi models.
Tesla was willing to import parts from China when the tariff was 34%, but that became impossible when Trump began raising it.
Tesla's (TSLA) first-quarter California registrations fell 15%, industry data show.
The company's quarterly sales worldwide fell 13% to their lowest in nearly three years, amid an aging product lineup and backlash against Musk.

• BTC dominance continues to grow. There are no conditions for a trend reversal yet, the macro factor works in favor of Bitcoin. Altcoins suffer from billion-dollar unlocks, lack of demand and weak charts against BTC.
The US may use Bitcoin to refinance government debt.

• Investment company VanEck presented the idea of BitBonds - a new instrument with which the US could raise $110 billion, buy more BTC and partially refinance the $14 trillion national debt.

• Chinese authorities are selling off confiscated BTC bitcoins - RTRS.

• Retail investors refuse to give up. The sell-off in the U.S. stock market was met with record buying from retail investors, according to Vanda Research.
Specifically, net buying of +$3 billion on Thursday marked a new daily record since our data began in 2014.

• Lyft to enter European market with $200 mln acquisition of FreeNow - Reuters

• OpenAI has added an image library to ChatGPT for all users. The feature is already live in the iOS app and will be coming to the web version soon.
The tool will be especially useful for those who regularly create images with ChatGPT and want to easily find their previous work.

• Hertz Global (HTZ) jumped 56% after Pershing Square Holdings announced a 4.1% stake in the company.
Strong short-term interest in Hertz could contribute to increased volatility in the stock's performance.

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is in the spotlight after Elliott Investment Management took a $1.5 billion stake in the company.
BofA Securities analysts maintain a Buy rating on HPE, citing its strong valuation and potential for improving cash flows.

• Elliott Management's investment is seen as a strategic move to unlock value in the company.

• Abbott Laboratories (ABT) reported mixed results for the first quarter of 2025, with revenue missing expectations despite profit growth.
The company reaffirmed its profit outlook amid uncertainty over tariffs on MedTech and Pharma products. Abbott plans to invest $500 million to expand its R&D capabilities in the U.S.
ABT shares rose 2.8%.

• Target (TGT) faces a ratings downgrade from Goldman Sachs, which cites the retailer's vulnerability to a decline in consumer spending due to its focus on discretionary goods.

• United Airlines (UAL) shares initially rose 6% after first-quarter profit beat expectations. UAL shares ended down 0.01% amid broad market selling pressure.
The airline's core economic growth and international revenue offset a drop in domestic revenue. However, management warned that the recession could weigh on profitability in coming quarters.

• Vale (VALE) reported a 4.5% year-on-year decline in iron ore production due to adverse weather conditions in Brazil.
Iron ore sales nevertheless rose 3.6% due to inventory gains. Vale's copper output beat expectations, helped by strong results in Canada and Brazil.
VALE shares fell 1.4%.

• Ecolab (ECL) announced that it will introduce a 5% trade surcharge on its solutions and services in the US effective May 1, 2025. This surcharge is intended to offset rising raw material costs due to changes in trade policy.

• Panama City Council voted to become the first government agency to accept cryptocurrency payments. Residents will be able to pay taxes, fees, fines and permits using BTC, ETH, USDC and USDT.

• Gold prices break $3,300 an ounce barrier to hit record highs. Gold fund inflows hit record highs this year - BofA/EPFR data.
Long gold is the most crowded trade among global fund managers - BofA April survey.

• Bessent: US ready to reduce energy exports from Iran to zero. Has China been asked?

• Another ECB rate cut expected. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates for the seventh time this year in Frankfurt today to support an economy made even more fragile by Trump's tariffs.

• As British supermarket chain Sainsbury's reports its annual results ahead of the Easter weekend, all eyes will be on whether it will follow industry leader Tesco and forecast a profit decline this year.

• Chipmaker shares will be back in focus after a tough session on Wednesday following a warning from ASML, as investors analyze earnings forecasts from industry leader TSMC to gauge the health of the sector.

• In the US, American Express, Blackstone and Truist Financial are set to report first-quarter results after a string of relatively strong results among US financial companies that bucked a downward trend on Wall Street.

Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- Philadelphia Federal Reserve releases manufacturing outlook for April.
- IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks on the global economy.
- The ECB holds a monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, followed by a briefing by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• The WTO has reduced its forecast for growth in global merchandise trade in 2025 to -0.2% from +3.0%. In 2025, the decline could even be -1.5% if trade misunderstandings worsen.

• The US Treasury sees little chance of reaching tariff agreements in 90 days.
"If you put China aside, we have 14 major trading partners. We're on a fast track to getting the process [negotiations] going for 14 major partners, most of whom have very large [trade] deficits. Will we have binding documents in 90 days? Not likely." - Bessent.

• China has replaced its top trade negotiator amid a protracted row with the United States, with Li Chenggang replacing Wang Shouwen as the new vice minister of commerce and a key figure in international negotiations.

• Xi Jinping intends to modernize the free trade agreement between China and ASEAN countries - Xinhua.
ASEAN is an association of ten countries in Southeast Asia, which includes: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Brunei. These countries are important trading partners of China and key players in the region.

• Rubio, Witkoff to visit France to discuss Ukraine, Iran, tariffs - Politico. The US wants to persuade more than 70 countries to limit trade ties with China in exchange for lower tariffs - WSJ.

• New US sanctions target Iranian oil tankers - Reuters

• The US has lifted sanctions on Antal Rogan, Viktor Orban's right-hand man accused of corruption, in a move seen as a sign of rapprochement between Washington and Budapest - France 24 At the same time, the US has called on Hungary to be "vigilant" over rising investment from China, warning that it could run counter to US strategic interests. - BBG
Orban will have to make a tough choice between the US and China. And the EU could benefit if Orban cancels the project with Chinese carmaker BYD.

• The US State Department announced the cancellation of “unnecessary” grants to foreign countries – in particular Belarus, Moldova and other post-Soviet states.

• EC President Ursula von der Leyen:
- The West as we knew it no longer exists...
- Europe must actively shape the new world order.
- The EU has realized that it needs to strengthen its defense, economy and global position.
- Allocating 800 billion euros for military potential was unthinkable just a few years ago.

• The blow to the German economy from US tariffs can be compared to the consequences of the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Donald Trump's actions caused the largest collapse of the index of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim since March 2022, which is called a barometer of expectations for the German economy.
Several German banks refused to invest in the country's defense for ethical reasons.
A joint declaration on such a refusal was signed by eight German banks: GLS-Bank, KD-Bank, BiB Essen, Bank für Kirche und Caritas, DKM - Partner für Kirche und Caritas, Evangelische Bank, Steyler Ethik Bank and PAX Bank. None of them are on the list of the largest in Germany, but GLS Bank and KD-Bank were recently recognized as the most stable in Germany by the Stiftung Warentest Institute.

• India plans to scrap import taxes on ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US as part of tariff talks - RTRS
US Vice President Vance to meet Indian Prime Minister Modi in India.

• Americans' expectations about their personal finances in the coming year have fallen to their lowest level ever.
- The financial expectations index is 8% below the low seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
- That means even the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s did not produce this level of pessimism.

• Bank of Japan to cut economic growth forecast due to US tariffs - RTRS.

• BRITAIN - CPI consumer inflation (March)
y/y = +2.6% (expected +2.7% / previously +2.8%)
core CPI = +3.4% y/y (expected +3.4% / previously +3.5%)
EUROZONE - CPI consumer inflation (March):
y/y = +2.2% (approx. +2.2% / previously +2.3%)
core CPI = +2.4% y/y (approx. +2.4% / previously +2.6%)

• Fresh US Economic Activity Data
Core Retail Sales m/m (Mar)= 0.5% (exp/ 0.4%/ pop/ 0.7%)
Retail Sales m/m (Mar)= 1.4% (exp/ 1.3%/ pop/ 0.2%)

U.S. business inventories rose slightly in February amid strong sales growth,
likely because households stocked up on goods ahead of the imposition of import tariffs.

• Fitch sees weakest non-pandemic global growth since 2009. Ratings agency Fitch has lowered its global growth forecasts.

• Bank of Canada: Major shift in U.S. trade policy has increased uncertainty, worsened growth prospects and raised inflation expectations
- tariffs, supply chain disruptions will push up prices.
- Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged at 2.75%.

• Rick Rieder of BlackRock:
- The economy is already in recession.
- We are increasing our share of gold.
- We like cash.

• Bank of America CEO says economic growth is actually better than many people think.

• The Mayor of Washington officially declared April 11 "Alexander Ovechkin Day." Earlier, Washington Capitals forward Alexander Ovechkin broke the record of Canadian Wayne Gretzky, becoming the best scorer in NHL history. Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser is a member of the Democratic Party.

Markets begin to calm down and look down amid tariff wars, company news and geopolitics

2025-04-15T05:40:13+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The stock market is starting to calm down. Yesterday, US stock indices rose to 1% on a fairly broad front. The "Magic Seven" was weaker than the market, except for AAPL. The dollar, crypto and futures are calm this morning. Asia is also quiet.

• It's Tax Day in the United States, the deadline for most Americans to file their returns with Uncle Sam, but in the rest of the world there is far less clarity about which trading partners will pay U.S. tariffs tomorrow, let alone next quarter. Who will be caught cheating after U.S. President Donald Trump trashed the Internal Revenue Service is another matter, but Asian markets have picked up after Trump suggested he might offer relief on auto-related tariffs.

• Japan's Nikkei index rose for a second straight day as automakers gained, but stock futures pointed to a mixed or lower open in European and U.S. markets.

• Pharmaceuticals are likely to be the next sector to be hit by Trump's tariffs, a blow to European drugmakers such as Novo Nordisk, whose weight-loss drugs have become global bestsellers in recent years.

The Trump administration is continuing to investigate drug and potato chip imports as part of an effort to impose tariffs on those sectors, according to documents filed in the Federal Register on Monday.

• Consumers are getting nervous. Disappointing first-quarter results from luxury group LVMH on Monday were further evidence that U.S. consumers are growing nervous about the risks of a recession.

• The ever-changing tariff conversation has tarnished the safe-haven status of the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. The dollar hovered near a three-year low against the euro and a six-month low against the yen in Asian trade. Gold, the main haven asset, rose toward a record it touched on Monday.

• OPEC has cut its oil demand forecast for 2025-26 due to the trade war. It has also reduced its expected global economic growth for 2025 to 3% (previously - 3.1%).

• Trump orders Commerce Department to investigate semiconductor imports, could lead to new tariffs on chips - Politico
Such tariffs would have wide-ranging implications for Asian countries and global tech.
Trump says he will make an announcement on electronics tariffs this week.

• China has offered banks extra gold import quotas as domestic demand rises from both institutions and individuals amid escalating trade wars - BBG.
Asian gold ETFs (mostly Chinese) have attracted more inflows in the first 11 days of April than in all of Q1 2025.
Goldman Sachs sees gold at $3,700 on trade war and recession.

• Goldman has cut its forecast for Chinese stocks for the second time in a month. The MSCI China Index forecast for the next 12 months was cut to 75 from 81.

• Market sentiment is at an all-time low:
- For the week ending April 9, 58.9% of investors expect the market to fall in the next 6 months, according to the AAII survey,
- The week before it was 61.9%.
For comparison:
- At the peak of the 2022 bear market - 60.8%,
- During the 2008 crisis - 70.3%.

• BofA advises selling US stocks on rebounds until the Fed starts actively cutting rates and the US and China end the trade war.

• Trump's actions have left Apple (AAPL) on the brink of its worst crisis since Covid. So far, the company has managed to balance on the brink - BBG.
Apple plans to make at least 50 million iPhones in India this year, ramping up production to take advantage of a 90-day reprieve on U.S. tariffs.
APPLE (AAPL) became the global smartphone market leader for the first time in the first quarter of the year, taking a 19% share,
helped by the launch of the iPhone 16E and rising sales in developing countries - COUNTERPOINT RESEARCH.

• Tether CEO: USDT user base grew 13% in Q1 2025. Digital assets saw $795 million outflow last week, bringing the total outflow for the two weeks to $1.035 billion.
Total outflows since early February have reached $7.2 billion, almost completely offsetting annual inflows.

• The gap between Bitcoin futures and spot is narrowing, which could indicate a weakening of bearish sentiment, according to a CryptoQuant analyst.

• JPMorgan launches blockchain payments in British pounds. The new accounts allow for 24/7 transactions, including currency exchange even on weekends. The Kinexys unit, formerly known as Onyx, has already processed more than $1.5 trillion via blockchain.

• Visa (V) joins Paxos and Robinhood stablecoin consortium.

• Bloomberg: The euro is emerging as an alternative safe haven asset alongside bonds. The currency has risen to its highest level in three years, approaching $1.15, and hedge funds and analysts are already talking about a possible strengthening to $1.20 in the next three to six months.

• Analyst Nate Silver analyzed data from the world's leading countries and concluded that the best stock market growth was observed in Russia, followed by Hungary. Their impressive performance was observed against the backdrop of global economic turmoil, which has particularly affected Asian countries. The markets of China and the United States demonstrated worse results than the world average, since these two countries are the main participants in the trade war.

• Pfizer (PFE) is abandoning its danuglipron diet pill after a trial participant developed liver damage. It was the company's key anti-obesity drug that investors had been watching closely. Danuglipron was supposed to compete with drugs from (NVO) Novo Nordisk and (LLY) Eli Lilly, but now Pfizer is changing its strategy. The final-stage trial has been canceled and the company will focus on early-stage research.

• NVIDIA (NVDA) will be the first to manufacture American-made AI supercomputers in the U.S.
Nvidia announced a $500 billion investment plan to build and expand AI infrastructure in the U.S. through partnerships with TSMC and Foxconn.

• The world's largest Chinese manufacturer of batteries for electric vehicles CATL reported a 33% year-on-year increase in net profit in Q1.

• Webull (BULL) +375%
- A Robinhood-like broker for US retail investors,
they went public via a SPAC on Friday.

• Palantir (PLTR) completed a deal with the NATO Communications and Information Agency to deploy its Maven Smart System to NATO's Joint Force Command Operations,
sending Palantir shares up 5%.

• Intel sells majority stake in Altera.
INTC shares rise 3%.

• MicroStrategy reverts to selling only common shares to buy Bitcoin.
MSTR shares are up 4%.
Strategy bought another 3,459 BTC worth ~$285.8 million at an average price of ~$82,618.

• Marketwatch: Will Meta (META) Have to Ditch Instagram?
Massive Antitrust Case Looks to Upend Social Media

• Goldman Sachs (GS) reported first-quarter earnings and revenue
that beat Wall Street expectations, thanks to strong performance in fixed-income, foreign exchange and commodities.
Although there was no estimate for net interest income, Goldman was able to reduce its credit-loss reserves, contributing to its financial success.

• In a strategic move, President Trump is reportedly preparing an executive order that would allow the extraction of important metals from the Pacific Ocean seafloor. The initiative is aimed at countering China's dominance of battery minerals and rare earth supply chains, sending shares of MP Materials (MP) and TMC the Metals Company (TMC) higher in premarket trading.

• Longevity Health (XAGE) announced it will merge with 20/20 BioLabs in an all-stock transaction that is expected to be significantly accretive to its revenues.
The combined company aims to leverage synergies in diagnostics and bioaesthetics, strengthen its market position and improve operational efficiencies.

• LVMH reports 3% sales drop as core business shrinks

• Republican senators are asking the Trump administration to repeal a rule that would restrict global access to AI chips.
Seven Republican senators sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Friday calling on the administration to withdraw the Biden administration's Access to Artificial Intelligence Act at the last minute - Reuters

• Copper and related stocks rise as tariff deferral gives traders some relief.

• Bessent denied rumors about foreigners selling off Treasuries:
- There is no evidence that foreign governments are selling US government bonds
- There is no mass “dumping”
- Foreign competition has appeared at US government debt auctions
- Market fluctuations do not yet require intervention: the tools are there, but their application is still a long way off.

Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- U.K. labor market data for February.
- First-quarter earnings from J&J, Bank of America, United Airlines and Citigroup.
- U.S. import prices are expected to be unchanged in March after rising 0.4% in February.
- Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin to speak at the University of North Carolina and Fed Chair Lisa Cook to speak in Washington, D.C.
- Canada to report inflation for March, likely unchanged from the previous month at 2.6%.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump's economic policies are in many ways similar to the strategy of Argentine President Juan Peron of the 1940s and 1950s.
The actions of Peron and his political heirs led to a protracted economic crisis in Argentina, and the US risks facing similar consequences - WP.

• Musk's friend who destroyed USAID has left the Trump administration. American official Peter (Pete) Marocco was one of the most vocal opponents of funding foreign aid programs.
At the same time, media sources suggest that Marocco, who held the post of director of the foreign aid department at the State Department, could have been forcibly dismissed.

• National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Gassett stressed that the United States must move key manufacturing home to be fully prepared for any crisis.
According to him, this is critical to national security.

• Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's debts to the World Bank, paving the way for approval of multimillion-dollar grants to help rebuild and support the country's public sector.

• Xi Jinping began his visit to Vietnam amid tough US tariffs on China. Beijing is seeking new ways to strengthen trade and supply chains in Southeast Asia. Vietnam, an important manufacturing hub for the US, is itself trying to avoid 46% tariffs, making the talks especially important.
Xi calls on Vietnam to unite against US bullying.
Vietnam and China signed 45 agreements during Xi's visit.

• EU wants new gas deal from US: After the White House suspended new tariffs, Europe is ready to resume talks on increasing supplies of American fuel, but wants more competitive prices in return.

• Iran says any future US sanctions relief must be guaranteed -- BBG

• European arms makers are overwhelmed with orders. The companies that make Storm Shadow missiles have orders until 2032.

• Gas supplies from Russia to the EU have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the war. In the first quarter of 2025, the main source of gas imports to the EU were pipeline supplies from Norway - 23.593 billion cubic meters. In second place was liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States - 18.393 billion cubic meters.
In third place were supplies from Russia at 10.015 billion cubic meters, the Euractiv portal reported, citing a report by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.
However, large European companies have begun to talk about resuming gas imports from Russia - Reuters.

• White House adviser Hassett: restrictions on rare earth metals are under close scrutiny.
The issue is strategically important - the production of electronics, defense and green technologies depends on these materials.

• Bank of Japan chief: Trump tariffs increase uncertainty and will have negative impact on global and Japanese economy

Markets soar on tariff delays, corporate reviews and geopolitical news

2025-04-10T05:19:13+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Trump's introduction of a delay in the introduction of high tariffs for 75 countries (10% remained for them) caused a surge of market enthusiasm. US stock indices soared like a rocket.
The Nasdaq 100 had its biggest one-day growth since 2001 (+12%). By the way, it was in a bear market then and the growth was due to the removal of shorts.
In the morning, futures on US stock indices are down by 1% - a normal correction after yesterday's rally of 8-12%.
Oil rose to $61-65.
Gold is again at $3140. Bitcoin tested $82 thousand.

• Asian shares and European stock futures rose on Thursday, joining a rally in relief sparked by a 90-day delay in most new U.S. tariffs, but the policy reversal did not extend to China, where an escalating trade war was spelling more trouble for markets.

Indeed, the dollar struggled to hold on to overnight gains, particularly against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc, and US stock futures fell after a brief initial rise in what could be a potential warning of waning investor confidence in the US economy.

• As economists at JP Morgan say, this is “just the end of the beginning” and the US trade war is far from over.

Wall Street indexes posted their biggest daily percentage gain in a decade, buoyed by relief that global trade would no longer be completely shut down following US President Donald Trump's latest reversal on tariffs.

But the standoff between the two global trading powers has changed dramatically: Trump dealt China a direct blow, raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, up from the 104% that took effect Wednesday. China raised additional tariffs on American products to 84% and imposed restrictions on 18 American companies.

By contrast, Vietnam, a huge beneficiary of global manufacturers' "China Plus One" strategy to diversify supply chains, said on Thursday it had reached an agreement with the United States to begin talks on a trade pact.

• Chinese shares opened on a positive note on Thursday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rising 4% even as the yuan fell to its lowest in more than 17 years. Some analysts attributed the gains to hopes for talks between the world's two largest economies and support for markets and the economy from Beijing.

• The manic sell-off in bonds also stabilized on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields eased after heavy selling in previous sessions revived fears of instability in the world's biggest bond market.

• Trump: Over time, I will consider the possibility of exempting some American companies from paying tariffs. / Most likely, this is about Apple.

• Amazon cancels some goods from China after tariffs. / Ahead are the shutdown of factories in China and a jump in unemployment. Beijing has nothing to respond with - either negotiate with Trump, or start aggression against Taiwan (but readiness was previously discussed for 2027).

• DAL has told Airbus that it will not pay duties on new aircraft./ This will be a loss for Airbus.

• Google has added an AI assistant to its Sheets service. You need to activate the functions in the Generative AI menu on the Workspace website and then Gemini will help you automatically create complex formulas, generate texts, conduct data analysis, classify information and provide generalizations.

• Goldman Sachs initially called for a bigger stock decline and a recession, but then withdrew its forecast.
The bank's economists expected Trump's tariffs to deepen the recession and push stock markets lower. Historically, recessions are often accompanied by bigger stock declines and bigger Fed rate cuts.
But after Trump suspended tariffs for 90 days, they withdrew their forecast.

• The world's uranium reserves could run out as early as 2080 if demand for nuclear energy continues to grow. The world must immediately make substantial investments in uranium mining to meet growing demand for nuclear energy. - A report by the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. / Usually such long-term forecasts are a cover for finding money.

• On April 7, Strategy (MSTR) filed Form 8-K with the SEC, stating that if the price of BTC continues to fall, the company may be forced to start selling BTC from its balance sheet to pay off debts.

• The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance has launched a new feature. Users will be able to buy coins via Apple Pay or Google Pay.

• VanEck: There are early signs that BTC is evolving from a speculative asset into a functional monetary instrument,
especially in economies looking to bypass the dollar and reduce reliance on US-led financial systems.

• US ports are clogged with imported cars after tariff hikes.
Some are already full to capacity and the port parking situation could become critical in a few weeks - FT.

• SP500 enters zone where long-term investors will want to buy, says Goldman Sachs.

• The Bank of Lithuania fined Revolut €3.5 million, but did not find any evidence of money laundering, Revolut's press service responded in a written comment
. The comments only concern improving control systems. The fine is only 0.38% of the company's annual income (€929 million), although the law allows for fines of up to 10%.

• Investors in credit ETFs lost $25.7 billion last week, the biggest loss in history for this group - FT
Short sellers made $159 billion in profit in 6 days as stocks fell - Bloomberg

• Escalating trade war sends US stock market down more than 10%, the biggest market drop since 2022.

• US Treasury Secretary does not rule out delisting Chinese shares from US stock exchanges. The decision is up to Trump - Bessent.

• China's yuan closes at 17-year low as Donald Trump escalates trade war with US,
Bessent urges China not to devalue yuan
During Trump's first term, China's central bank actively weakened the yuan against the US dollar to soften the blow to the economy from tariffs, irritating Trump.

• Bessent: "I expect the bond market to calm down. I don't think there's anything systemic about deleveraging the bond market. Deregulation should allow banks to buy more Treasuries."

• OpenAI is considering acquiring io Products, a startup founded by former Apple chief design officer Jony Ive and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. The deal could be worth at least $500 million, - The Information.

• Google (GOOG) Pays Employees Extra Money to Keep Them from Joining Competitors - Business Insider. The company is forced to use "aggressive" terms to retain employees.

• AMG Critical Minerals has approved the construction of a chrome plant in New Castle, USA. Has the relocation of production to the USA begun?
AMG Critical Materials NV is a Dutch metallurgical company specializing in the production of specialty metals, engineered metallurgical products and vacuum furnaces.

• Saudi Arabia announces discovery of 8 new oil and gas fields - SPA.

• Google (GOOGL) unveiled its latest AI chip, the Ironwood TPU, designed to improve inference capabilities.
Available in two configurations, the chip aims to speed up the processing of AI models in data centers, meeting the growing demand for AI infrastructure.

• The Trump administration has revoked special licenses for BP (BP) and Shell (SHEL) for gas projects in Venezuela, impacting the economy of Trinidad and Tobago. The decision is consistent with U.S. efforts to isolate Venezuela and follows similar actions against other companies.

• The revocation of licenses affects projects critical to Trinidad's $3.6 billion LNG exports.

• Peabody Energy (BTU) is reviewing its deal to acquire Anglo American's coal operations after a fire at an Australian mine.
The incident has prompted Peabody to reconsider its options while continuing talks with Anglo American to assess the impact.

• A federal judge has dismissed a class action lawsuit against Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) that accused the company of maintaining a monopoly on its multiple myeloma drug, Pomalyst.
The court ruled that the plaintiffs failed to prove an antitrust violation, allowing Bristol Myers to continue operating without legal hindrance.

• Apple (AAPL) shares continue to slide as China increases tariffs on U.S. goods.

• Walmart (WMT) maintained its sales growth outlook despite tariff uncertainty. The company plans to navigate the challenging environment by focusing on strategic investments and maintaining operational flexibility.

• Pharmaceutical stocks fall as Trump announces 'big' tariffs for industry

• Volkswagen's first-quarter deliveries rose 1.4 percent, driven by nearly all markets. Volkswagen delivered 2.13 million vehicles in the first quarter.

• Trump: The bond market is beautiful. I've been watching the bond market. Recall that the yield on 10-year US government bonds first fell to 3.9% per annum, then soared to 4.5% and is now 4.3%.

• Trump: Over time, I will consider exempting some American companies from paying tariffs. Most likely, we are talking about Apple.

• The March U.S. inflation report is due out on Thursday, although it is likely to have less significance for markets as the data mostly covers the period before Trump's latest round of big tariffs.

However, the positive surprise could turn out to be a negative one, given that it would only be a precursor to the sharp price increases that will occur when the tariffs are fully implemented.

Key events that could impact markets on Thursday:
- Tariff news
- US inflation data (March)

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump: “Based on the lack of respect China has shown for world markets, I am hereby raising the tariff levied on China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the United States and other countries are no longer sustainable or acceptable. On the other hand, and based on the fact that over 75 countries have called in United States representatives, including the Commerce Department, the Treasury Department, and the Office of the United States Trade Representative, to negotiate a resolution of the issues under discussion regarding trade, trade barriers, tariffs, currency manipulation, and non-monetary tariffs, and that those countries have, at my urging, taken no retaliatory action against the United States, I have authorized a 90-day PAUSE and a substantially reduced reciprocal tariff during that period. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

• China is confident it will win the trade war with the US and says it will "fight to the end" - The Economist.

• The US is planning a possible conflict with China, - NYT.

• China publishes white paper on US trade and economic relations.
China calls for dialogue with US to resolve trade disputes - Xinhua.
According to preliminary forecasts, trade turnover between China and US could decrease by 80% - WTO chief.

• China's decision to impose 84% tariffs on US goods:
For consumers:
- Prices will rise: US goods (cars, appliances, food) will become more expensive.
- Fewer choices: Some US brands may leave the market.
For traders and businesses:
- Fewer exports: US companies may reduce sales in China, which will hit revenue.
- Market volatility: Rising tensions create uncertainty for global trade.
- Shifting supplies: Companies may look for new markets and suppliers.

• The EU is imposing tariffs on €21 billion worth of American goods. The new duties will affect soybeans, chicken, and motorcycles and will come into force in stages from April 15. The decision was a reaction to the previous 25% US tariff on European steel and aluminum.

• Musk uses AI to find Trump's enemies among government officials - Reuters The DOGE team also uses the Signal app to communicate, which violates federal records rules because messages can disappear after a certain period of time.

• Trump urges Congress to pass tax cut bill as Americans clear shelves of goods due to Trump's massive tariffs

• Citizens are trying to stock up on as many products with a long shelf life as possible: beans, canned goods, flour, cereals, oil, etc. Or maybe this is Trump's cunning plan to boost the economy and collect taxes through consumer activity?

• Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary: Wall Street has gotten richer in four decades. 'The next four years are Main Street's turn.
' 'Main Street will now play a key role in creating jobs, attracting investment and restoring the American Dream.'

• US considers providing financial aid to farmers as China's retaliatory moves threaten exports.

• We will reduce the national debt by 1% per year - US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

• European allies urge US to avoid shock troop cuts - Bloomberg.

• The far-right AfD has taken first place in a poll for the first time. According to a poll by the Ipsos institute, support for the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, which won the German elections on February 23, fell by five percentage points to 24%, while the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany gained three points and reached 25%.

• Germany will end federal refugee programs and will not create new ones, Reuters reports. The refugees in question are those on the UN resettlement program, most of whom come from Turkey, Egypt, Jordan or Kenya, or from Libya via Rwanda.

• Deutsche Bank: "If the sell-off in the Treasury market continues, the Fed should immediately intervene and stabilize the deficit in demand for debt through emergency QE. We see no other options."

• Former US Treasury Secretary Summers: "It appears that we are heading towards a serious financial crisis."

• Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), suggested that the current tariff issues are not comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. He noted the need for progress on trade agreements to stabilize the market, acknowledging that such agreements take time. Dimon emphasized the importance of strengthening trade relations with Europe to counter the influence of China and Russia, noting that economic growth is expected to slow, although defaults have not yet increased significantly.
The head of JP Morgan is hearing “talk about a recession” and believes a recession is a likely outcome.
He has not seen defaults yet, but expects one to happen.

• Fed's Kashkari: The risk of weakening inflation expectations seems to have increased significantly. Policy is tightening on its own, reducing the need to raise rates. Translation: inflation risks are decreasing. Which is logical against the backdrop of a collapse in oil prices. And this means that the chances of a Fed rate cut are growing.

• Indian Commerce Minister: Indian and US manufacturers hit by China's unfair trade practices

• Trump signed an executive order aimed at restoring shipbuilding in the United States and reducing China's influence on the global shipping industry.

The fall of markets due to tariffs continues, geopolitical crisis and corporate news

2025-04-09T05:27:46+00:00

Latest stock news

• Roller coasters continue. The market soared by 3% from the opening, and closed with a fall of 2%. In the morning after a new round of the escalation of the trade war between the USA and China, futures on US stock indices fall by an average of 2%.
Nervous begs to go out.
This time, US government bonds also fell in price - the 10-year is already 4.423% (as recently as Monday it was 3.9%). The main sales are based on long-term government bonds of 20-30 years. And despite the increase in profitability, the US dollar is falling. Market rates on stagflation are growing.
Oil is already $57-60 and the Russian budget is bursting at the seams. It would have been like that a couple of years ago even without the tariff war.

• As the next phase of a rapidly escalating trade war becomes increasingly apparent, investors remain in shock as the stock market continues its deep slide and rush to safe-haven assets — the yen and the Swiss franc — waiting and hoping for some semblance of good news.

• President Donald Trump's retaliatory tariffs, including 104% tariffs on Chinese goods, took effect at midnight (US time), fueling fears of a recession and upending the decades-old global trade order. Markets were pinning their hopes on negotiations, but so far, it seems, Washington and Beijing are headed for a decisive clash.

• That sent investors scrambling for cover as Wednesday's relief rally fizzled and Asian stock markets turned into a sea of red. European futures point to a significantly lower open on the day.

So, the yen and the Swiss franc became the choice of nervous investors, as the incessant selling of dollars showed no signs of stopping. In developing markets, the Indonesian rupiah fell to a record low level and was on the verge of breaking the 17,000 mark per dollar.

The yuan weakened to a 19-month low, while its offshore counterpart retreated from a record low level reached during turbulent overnight trading.

• The flight to safety did not affect US Treasuries. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose by a staggering 21 basis points. The fact that large-scale tariffs can lead to a recession, and markets are pricing in further interest rate cuts, is usually a good reason to buy bonds, but this has not happened. ING economists said that the "sell America" trade now dominates the theme of the growing risk of a recession, which would normally reduce profitability. In short, get ready.

• Most of the heads of large American companies with whom I talk believe that we are already in a recession - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. And they believe that stock markets can fall even deeper due to the trade policy of President Donald Trump, which destabilizes the global economy.

• Goldman believes that the sell-off in US stocks may well turn into a longer cyclical bear market as recession risks grow.

• Oil may fall below $40 under "extreme" conditions - Goldman. The slowdown in world GDP growth and the simultaneous increase in production by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries.

Trump intends to increase coal production in the USA to provide electricity for data centers - BBG.

• Arthur Hayes predicts an influx of Chinese capital into BTC due to the devaluation of the yuan. This already happened in 2013 and 2015.

• Porsche reported a drop in global sales by 8% in Q1 2025. The main drivers of the drop were the markets of the People's Republic of China and Germany.

• 62% of investors are currently bullish on the stock market. That is the highest indicator since the global financial crisis of 2008 - LSEG.

• "Black swan" investor Mark Spitznagel warns: the collapse of the market can reach 80% - but not now. In his opinion, the market has not yet reached the "euphoric peak", and the bubble, although the largest in history, has not yet burst.

• China began to gradually weaken the yuan - this is a change of course and a signal to Washington. Before the introduction of Trump's tariffs, the exchange rate was kept stable.

• The President of Mexico: Most of the directors of auto plants in Mexico said that they have no plans to relocate their plants yet.

• TSMC may be fined $1 billion or more. As a result of the US investigation into cooperation with the Chinese Huawei.

• Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) rose. As Goldman Sachs raised the rating of the pharmaceutical giant, it emphasized the company's leadership in the growing market of anti-obesity drugs.
Goldman predicts that Eli Lilly's weight loss drug franchise will beat consensus expectations, and the market is expected to triple by 2030.

• Morgan Stanley upgraded CME Group (CME), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) and MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) to Overweight.
Referring to the necessity of hedging and risk management in conditions of market volatility.
The bank considers stock exchanges as a defensive play in troubled times, with the potential to increase trading volumes.

• Shares of Tilray Brands (TLRY) fell after missing revenue estimates for the third quarter in a row.
The cannabis company revised its annual revenue forecast downwards, despite the fact that its net profit exceeded expectations. The company's cannabis segment suffered a decline, while the alcoholic beverage and distribution segments showed growth.

• Apple ( AAPL ) stores experienced a surge in "panic buying" of iPhones as buyers feared higher prices due to tariffs
Despite efforts to diversify its supply chain, Apple remains dependent on China for production. Analysts warn that the trade war may significantly affect Apple's profits if exceptions are not granted.

• Shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) rose. After Piper Sandler upgraded the bank's rating to Overweight, he marked the bank's transition from defensive to offensive.
The improvement of the bank's regulatory environment and the deregulation program during the Trump administration were cited as positive factors. The potential removal of the limit on assets also opens up opportunities for growth.

• Generac (GNRC) announced the launch of new high-power generators for the data center market. Expanded its product line to support high-power applications.
The new generators aim to expand Generac's capabilities in serving critical businesses, including telecommunications operators and hospitals.

• Alibaba (BABA) is modernizing its AI services abroad, unveiling new models and infrastructure updates at its Spring Launch 2025 event. The company aims to meet growing demand for digital transformation with new AI tools and services for international customers.

• Trump's tariffs could soften one of the most expensive housing markets in Europe - if Apple and Pfizer workers are laid off.
Workers of technology and pharmaceutical companies in Ireland are under threat due to the escalation of Trump's trade war.

• Shares of Levi's ( LEVI ) rise as the company says price changes caused by the tariffs will be "surgical."
Shares of Levi Strauss rose on Tuesday, a day after the denim giant reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and gave a relatively bullish outlook on Trump.

Key events that may affect the markets on Wednesday:
- Tariff updates.

Current fundamental reviews

• The March index of small business optimism in the NFIB report decreased by 3.3 points to 97.4.
This is the largest monthly decrease since June 2022, which is below the average value for 51 hours (98).
The decrease in the Index of improvement of business conditions (-16) and expected sales (-11) were the most influential factors.
At the same time, the index of uncertainty fell by 8 points from the second highest indicator in February to 96.

• Trump signed a decree to increase tariffs on China to 104% from April 9.

• Musk personally asked Trump to cancel new large-scale tariffs, - WP. The newspaper notes that these are "the loudest disagreements between the president and one of his key advisers."
The billionaire criticized Trump's trade policy adviser Peter Navarro, who played a key role in developing the tariffs.

• Trump announces a record Pentagon budget of $1 trillion or 3.5% of GDP. The Pentagon is considering the possibility of withdrawing up to 10,000 US troops from Eastern Europe.
The units considered for reduction are part of the 20,000 troops that the Joe Biden administration sent in 2022 to strengthen the defense of countries bordering Ukraine after a full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation.

• Trump said that the EU should buy $350 billion worth of energy from the US to reduce tariffs, - Politico.

• In response to new US tariffs, China will launch an investigation into the intellectual property of US companies operating in the country. It also plans to ban the import of American films - Xinhua.

• The White House is considering the possibility of drone strikes against Mexican cartels - NBC.

• Trump decided to hold an expensive military parade in Washington on his birthday, June 14. This day also marks the 250th anniversary of the US Army - CNN.

• China is trying to advance NATO in the Black Sea. Beijing invests hundreds of millions of dollars and receives almost half of the shares of a strategic port in Georgia.

• German exports to the USA will drop by 15% due to new tariffs. This will happen if it is not possible to agree with Washington on the reduction of tariffs introduced by Donald Trump, predicts the Institute of Economic Studies (ifo). Acting the head of the Federal Ministry of Finance Jörg Kukis noted that this threatens a recession in Germany. At the same time, the trade war unleashed by Trump will also hit the United States, he emphasized.

• UBS Global Research: among the major eurozone countries, Germany is likely to suffer the most from Trump's tariffs.

• The USA is conducting direct negotiations with Iran. Donald Trump announced this, announcing a "very important meeting" on April 12. The US president threatened Tehran with "great danger".

• Stagflation is now America's best-case scenario. Trump's tariffs risk causing a severe combination of recession and inflation - BBG.
Hassett (White House): "The Fed will make decisions on monetary policy. Respect the Fed's independence."

• Traders are quickly betting on a faster easing of the DCP in China against the background of worsening trade tensions with the USA - BBG.

• Mexico will increase gas production to reduce dependence on the USA - FT.

• US Trade Representative Greer: "We have excluded pharmaceuticals and semiconductors from mutual tariffs, as we believe that they require separate investigations."
Trump: "We need more than twice as much electricity as we have now." And for this, investments are needed.

Markets are confused by tariffs, high volatility, company news and geopolitics

2025-04-08T06:49:52+00:00

Latest stock news

• Monday's stormy trading ended in zero. Fears (hopes) about Black Monday and the collapse were not justified. But the bounce up didn't work either.
But the price of long-term US government bonds fell sharply. 4% per day for 10-year-old girls turned out to be a strong limit. And in the conditions of inflationary and even stagflationary insurances, yields are decreasing.
But the increase in profitability supported the US dollar and helped gold fall to $3,000.
In the morning, the situation in Asia calmed down a bit and we see a 1-2% increase in futures on US stock indices.
Bitcoin returned to $80 thousand.

• European investors, still in a state of shock after the fall of regional stock indices by almost 12% in three days, wake up and see that the futures market indicates a growth of more than 3%.

• President Donald Trump practically did not back down from his attacks on the alleged disparities in trade, he even intensified the pressure on China, threatening to introduce additional duties in the amount of 50%, as a result of which the total amount will significantly exceed 100%.

• Wall Street didn't have the best day, although an overall unchanged close would be a nice respite after a 10% drop over the previous two sessions. Volatility was the highlight of Monday's trading, with the VIX fear index (.VIX) rising above 60 for just the second time since the pandemic began.

All of this raises doubts about whether the rebound in markets will last, and even a 3% rise in the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index opens a new tab will not be able to offset much of the fall after Trump's announcement of tariffs on "Liberation Day" last Wednesday.

• However, a look at the Asian markets quickly reveals a clear winner: Japan. One of the first signs that Trump's tariffs may be just a starting point for negotiations is that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading a team that will hold trade talks with Tokyo in the coming days.

At the same time, there is a definite differentiation by geographical regions. The 6% rise in Japan's stock market (.TOPX), opens a new tab, contrasts sharply with the 5% sell-off in Taiwan (.TWII), opens a new tab, which faces 32% fees and is heavily dependent on chip exports.

• Asian emerging markets were punished by some of Trump's highest tariff rates, while the collapse of stocks does not weaken. Thailand's benchmark index (.SETI), opens a new tab, fell to a five-year low, while Indonesia returned after a one-week hiatus to a 9% drop in its stock market and a record low for the rupiah.

• The journalist asked Trump if there is a limit to the pain in the market that he is not ready to endure. Trump answered that the question is stupid.
He added that he does not want anything to fall, but sometimes it is necessary to take "medicine" to correct the situation, because the United States has long suffered from other countries.

• Yesterday, SP500 traded as "Fartcoin" - BBG. First, they remembered the false news from the White House about the delayed introduction of tariffs on fake news (the news appeared on CNBC), and then when they found out the truth, they deleted it.

• Audi stops its deliveries to the US due to US tariffs, - Automobilwoche. All cars imported into the country after April 2 will be detained and temporarily not handed over to dealers.

• Tom Lee admitted a mistake in Trump's assessment of "Liberation Day" (tariff day), saying that the White House violated the basic principle of capitalism. However, he noted that stock sales are overvalued and the probability of de-escalation is high.
A Goldman Sachs analyst says that earlier such collapses in the market united world leaders to stabilize the situation.
But now world players are interested in strengthening sales, as this increases the cost of the US tariff policy, increasing the chances of its revision.

• Peter Schiff advised Saylor. "If you don't want to allow a collapse below the average of $68,000, you'd better get a loan truck today and go all in."

• Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell below what Howard Latnick called "never this cheap" ($200).
The global long/short ratio decreased to 165.8%, which is close to the minimum for the last 5 years.

• Head of the ECB Lagarde declared the need to strengthen control over the system of digital payments in the EU and reduce dependence on foreign platforms such as Visa, Mastercard, PayPal and Alipay.

• Chinese BYD launched its premium brand Denza in Europe. Denza sales in Europe will begin at the end of the year with the EV version of the Z9 GT sports utility vehicle with a capacity of 1,000 horsepower, and at the beginning of 2026 - with the hybrid version.

• General Motors (GM) faces potential revenue problems. Tariffs threaten to reduce its free cash flow by 20% and reduce adjusted profit for 26 financial hours by 50%.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) reported an unrealized loss on its digital assets of $5.91 billion for Q1 2025.
First of all, due to a significant drop in the price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD).
This loss is expected to lead to a net loss for the quarter.
MSTR shares fell 9% yesterday and rose 2% in the premarket.

• Shares of cybersecurity companies such as Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) are seen as potential hedges for technology investors amid tariff uncertainty.
Analysts suggest that these companies may outpace other technology sectors as investors look for safer options.

• Mesa Air Group (MESA) announced a merger with Republic Airways to create a leading regional airline.
The transaction for the sale of all shares aims to increase the scale and financial indicators of the combined company with an expected revenue of about $1.9 billion.

• Microsoft's joint venture (MSFT) Wicresoft is closing its operations in China, which will result in the layoff of about 2,000 employees. The move is part of Microsoft's strategy to end outsourcing after-sales services in China amid rising geopolitical tensions.

• JP Morgan, BofA and Oppenheimer cut their annual target for the S&P 500.
Oppenheimer cut its target for the benchmark index to 5,950 from 7,100.
BofA cut its target to 5,600 from 6,666, making it one of the lowest on Wall Street.
JP Morgan - up to 5,200 from 6,500. In the worst case scenario, a drop to 4,000 is expected.

• Journalists disassembled the iPhone 16 Pro and calculated the cost of all parts. Previously, the production of one smartphone cost $549, now - $846: in the final price plus $300 plus taxes.

Key events that may affect the markets on Tuesday:
- The head of the ECB, Olla Rehn, will speak in Helsinki.
- German Finance Minister Christian Lindner speaks in Berlin.
- ECB board member Luis de Guindos speaks at the meeting of the Spanish Banking Association in Madrid.
- Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Claire Lombardella, speaks in London.
- Head of the Riksbank Erik Thedeen talks about the economy in Stockholm.
- Governor of the Bank of Norway Ida Walden Bach speaks in Oslo.
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks in Provo, Utah.

Current fundamental reviews

• Trump. "If China does not reverse its 34% increase on top of its already long-term trade tariffs by tomorrow, April 8, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL tariffs on China of 50% starting on April 9. In addition, all negotiations with China regarding the meetings they have invited with us will be suspended! Negotiations with other countries that have also invited meetings will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this issue!"

• Trump. "Oil prices have fallen, interest rates have fallen (the slow Fed should cut rates!), food prices have fallen, there is NO INFLATION, and the long-offended USA receives billions of dollars a week from rogue countries at existing tariffs. And this despite the fact that the most offended of them, China, whose markets are collapsing, just raised its tariffs by 34% in addition to its long-term ridiculously high tariffs (plus!), did not heed my warning to the rogue countries not to retaliate. They have already made enough money, taking advantage of the good old USA! Our past "leaders" are guilty of allowing this and many other things to happen to our country. WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”.

• Trump calls on Europe to pay reparations to the USA: "We set big tariffs for Europe. They sit down at the negotiating table. They want to talk, but there will be no conversation until they pay us a lot of money on an annual basis - not only for the present, but also for the past."

• Latnyk: Trump's policy is "worth it", even if it leads to a recession. Today, Trump will hold a "rousing rally" for House Republicans and major sponsors, Axios.

• Time to tone down the rhetoric a bit. More than 50 countries are negotiating tariffs. Trump is ready to listen to trading partners if they offer favorable deals - White House.

• Trump's adviser on trade Navarro: mutual reduction of tariffs by other countries is not enough. A more serious problem is cheating that goes beyond duties.

• The EC will implement the first package of retaliatory measures against the USA on April 15, the next one on May 15 if there is no progress in the negotiations - the EC.
The European Union is expected to respond to US tariffs on aluminum and steel on April 9 - Politico.

• Indonesia is considering the possibility of increasing the volume of imports of American goods. To convince President Trump to reconsider the decision to impose tariffs. - Minister-Coordinator for Economic Affairs of Indonesia Airlangga Hartarto.

• The EU will discuss the creation of a fund for the purchase of military equipment. A fund called "European Defense Mechanism" (EDM) will buy military equipment, charging participants for its use. EDM will also be able to issue loans and accept non-EU countries such as Great Britain, Ukraine and Norway as participants.

• Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Melona plans to meet with Trump at the White House on April 16.
The purpose of the negotiations is to achieve a halving of "reciprocal" duties between the European Union and the United States thanks to good relations with the American leader.

• The new tariff of 34% this year will put pressure on China's GDP by at least 0.7 percentage points - Goldman Sachs.
We expect that China will significantly speed up measures to mitigate the DCP. The Chinese authorities are discussing measures to stabilize the economy and markets against the background of tariff pressure from US President Donald Trump.

• According to Bloomberg, management and key officials are considering the possibility of an accelerated launch of incentives to support consumption, and some of these steps were planned even before the introduction of tariffs.

• JPMorgan: The Fed may cut interest rates urgently. Bob Michel from JPMorgan Asset Management believes that the Fed will have to cut rates before the May meeting. The global index of economic policy uncertainty reached the highest level in history

Stock market collapse continues, panic in markets and society, company news and geopolitics

2025-04-07T05:19:58+00:00

Latest stock market news

• In the morning, the collapse on global financial markets continues. S&P 500 is already below 5000 (-3%). In Asia, indices are falling by 6-10%. Bitcoin is falling by 6% ($78 thousand), and precious crypto is falling by more than 10% on average. Oil is $60-64 (-2%).

Another day, another plunge in Asian markets as President Trump shows no sign of backing down on his tariff plans despite stock markets being consumed by a bonfire of wealth.

Investors thought the specter of trillions of dollars lost would make Trump reconsider, or at least shake up his aides, but he seems to feel that the harsh medicine will help in the long run. Billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman, who backed Trump’s presidential bid, seemed to think otherwise, saying the tariffs were an “economic nuclear winter” for the world.

• The chill was certainly felt in Asia, where the Nikkei index fell another 6% and Chinese blue chips fell nearly 7%, despite talk that Beijing would come to the rescue with stimulus measures.

Poor Taiwan returned from its hiatus with losses of nearly 10% as Trump's sky-high tariffs threaten the supply chains on which so much of the world's business has come to rely. Taiwan's politicians have moved to curb short selling, and circuit breakers have been triggered in many markets.

• Dealers were increasingly worried that losses in the markets would force investors to dump winning assets just to cover their margin calls, triggering a sell-off. JPMorgan now puts the chance of a U.S. recession and a Fed rate cut between June and January next year at 60%, leaving the funds rate at around 3%. Futures markets have also moved in that direction, with December Fed funds up a whopping 30 basis points this morning before closing down to 16 ticks.

• Powell's restraint: Markets are even pricing in a 50/50 chance of the Fed easing as early as May, despite Chairman Powell's repeated assertions last week that the central bank is in no rush to take action. His restraint is understandable, given how tariffs are set to raise prices on everything from cars to food. It's probably too early for this week's March U.S. consumer price report to show the impact, but it won't last long.

• Trump said many countries wanted deals to ease the pain of tariffs. The problem was that the “reciprocal” rates the U.S. chose were much, much higher than the tariffs most other countries actually imposed, making it difficult for them to offer deals “pretty enough” to satisfy Trump.

• China appears ready to fight, partly because it sees a chance to become a reliable trading partner, replacing the US. There could also be further hints of retaliation from the EU when the region's trade ministers meet later on Monday.

All this comes as earnings season for the largest U.S. banks is set to begin on Friday, and only a bold CEO would express anything other than concerns about the earnings and sales outlook.

• In the US, a suicide prevention hotline has become particularly popular among investors, due to the sharp decline in the S&P 500 index.

• Today could be the third day in a row that the S&P 500 falls more than -4%. This has only happened once before - during the Great Depression.

• Jim Cramer is looking at 4000 for the S&P 500. "I want to see where it all settles... today is not the bottom because Europe's response to tariffs hasn't come yet. The S&P 4000 is where I'm looking."

• Switzerland has returned to negative interest rates on its two-year government bonds.

• Apple (AAPL) considering expanding iPhone production in Brazil to circumvent Trump tariffs - media

• Elon Musk's SpaceX will use its rockets to launch U.S. military satellites into space in a contract worth nearly $6 billion - U.S. Space Force

• British Jaguar Land Rover is suspending deliveries to the United States due to the introduction of new tariffs by President Donald Trump, trying to find a solution for further operations in the United States - a statement from the company.

• US Treasury Secretary Blames China's DeepSeek for Stock Market Crash The stock market crash has more to do with the emergence of Chinese AI assistant DeepSeek this year than with President Donald Trump's policies, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with American blogger Tucker Carlson. / Biden No Longer to Blame?

• Klarna and StubHub have suspended their public offerings as stock markets are in free fall due to Trump tariffs.

• Swiss government bonds show negative yields again.

• Taiwan market falls 10%, biggest one-day drop since 1990. Taiwan limits short selling this week.

• The volume of intraday orders on shares has been reduced from 30% to 3% of the average daily trading volume over the past 30 days.
The minimum margin for short selling has increased from 90% to 130%.

• March inflation data and big bank profits are among the highlights of the economic calendar this week
Investors will be looking for cues on prices and economic health amid uncertainty around Trump's announcement of tariffs expected to take effect on Wednesday. China has announced retaliatory 34% tariffs due to take effect on Thursday.

• The Fed's minutes are expected to provide insight into economic conditions and interest rate dynamics.
Consumer sentiment and lending data will be closely watched amid economic uncertainty over inflation and tariffs.

• Friday's earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and BlackRock (BLK) kick off a big quarterly earnings season.
Automatic stops on the CME Futures Exchange will be at -7%, -13% and -20% down levels,
with trading halted for 15 minutes when each is reached.

• Jim Cramer hints at a repeat of Black Monday 1987. Black Monday was October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones fell nearly 22% in one day - the biggest one-day drop in history.
No one knows where the market will go, but it always pays to be prepared for new opportunities.

• Warren Buffett was the only one among the top 10 richest people in the US whose asset value rose amid Trump's trade war.

• Wedbush analyst Dan Ives: "Hope for some news over the weekend - like a tariff deferral or common sense prevailing, because if nothing happens over the weekend, we'll go into next week and that's a little bit of a scary prospect."

• Wall Street banks have asked their hedge fund clients to put up more cash as collateral for loans as the value of their assets has fallen sharply, according to people familiar with the matter - FT.

• The Chinese authorities have not approved the deal to sell TikTok's American assets. Due to recently announced tariffs on Chinese goods - Reuters, citing sources.
Meanwhile, Trump has extended the deadline for the sale of TikTok by 75 days.

• Trading volume across all U.S. exchanges reached a record 26.4 billion shares on Friday, according to ZeroHedge. That officially surpasses the Jan. 27, 2021, high of 23.7 billion shares, when meme stocks were at their peak.

• Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all imported beer and added beer cans to existing tariffs on aluminum, hitting brands including Heineken, Carlsberg and Corona. - FT

• Farmers fear tariffs could cost them one of their biggest markets in China. "There's just no room for error in the current farm economy," said Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Growers Association.

• B. Riley received notice from Nasdaq that its annual report was delayed. While the notice does not immediately impact B. Riley's listing, Nasdaq notified the company that it has until June 2 to file a plan on how it intends to return to compliance.

• GameStop (GME) shares jumped 11% on Friday as stock indexes fell after regulators found that CEO Ryan Cohen purchased 500,000 shares of the company.

• Defense companies that have maintained U.S. supply chains for national security reasons may be relatively insulated from the impact of new tariffs, Morgan Stanley said Friday.

• Meta (META) has unveiled LLaMa 4, its most powerful AI model yet. The company has released three versions: Behemoth, for challenging tasks; Scout, which is lightweight and fast; and Maverick, which is balanced and powerful.

Weekly calendar

-Monday, April 7
Consumer Finance (February)
Reports: Levi Strauss (LEVI), Greenbrier (GBX) and Dave & Buster's (PLAY)

- Tuesday, April 8
NFIB Optimism Index (March)
RPM International (RPM), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), WD-40 (WDFC), Tilray Brands (TLRY), Mama's Creations (MAMA), and Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) report

- Wednesday, April 9
US Tariffs Scheduled to Go Into Effect
Wholesale Inventories (February)
March FOMC Minutes March
Reports: Constellation Brands (STZ), Delta Air Lines, and Simply Good Foods (SMPL)

- Thursday, April 10
China Tariffs to Take Effect
Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending April 5)
Consumer Price Index (March)
Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee to Speak
CarMax Reports

- Friday, April 11
Producer Price Index (March)
Consumer Sentiment - Preliminary (April)
NY Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak
JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) to report

Key events that could impact markets on Monday:
- EU retail sales, Sentix investor confidence, German industrial production.
- Speeches by ECB board member Piero Cipollone and Fed chief Kugler.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• The United States has received appeals from more than 50 countries since President Trump announced new tariffs, White House National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Gasset told ABC News' This Week.

• Bill Ackman, founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, believes the April 9 deadline for the tariffs to go into effect will be delayed to give Trump "time to make deals."

• Trump is currently on a flurry of calls. Time is running out to strike deals before tariffs go into effect.

• EU considers introducing counter-tariffs against US worth $28 billion - Reuters.

• Trump's introduction of comprehensive import tariffs will change the world order, and one of the clear winners of this policy is Xi Jinping, - WSJ.
US policy has been aimed at weakening economic relations between European countries and China for many years. Now, restoring ties with China is a matter of time, the publication writes.

• Anti-American sentiment has increased in Asian countries following Trump's tariffs, which could lead them to choose China as an alternative trading partner.

• Taiwan President Lai Ching-de said the island would not respond to U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures. Instead, Taiwan would focus on removing trade barriers and increasing investment in the U.S. economy by Taiwanese companies.

• India will seek a new trade deal with the US to avoid Trump's tariffs - Bloomberg.
Reuters, in turn, writes that India is unlikely to take action in response to Trump's tariffs.

• New deliveries of Russian gas to Germany are possible, the head of Thuringia said. "It is possible - but the decisive factor is the end of the war in Ukraine," said Mario Voigt, Prime Minister of the federal state of Thuringia and a member of the CDU party, in an interview with the Berliner Zeitung.

• Britain tests new hypersonic cruise missile - The Telegraph The new engine could power the new hypersonic missile, which has a longer range than a conventional one.

• US President Donald Trump made his own decision on the tariff formula, based on his own instincts. He was surrounded by people who did not dare argue - The Washington Post.

• Germany wants to get its gold back from the US. Berlin is shocked by the unpredictability of their new administration's policies and doubts the reliability of their American partner, - Politico. We are talking about ≈1,200 tons of gold worth €113 billion in the Fed's vaults, which make up a significant part of Germany's gold reserves - the second largest in the world.

• British officials have met with individual European allies to discuss plans for a new defence fund designed to bypass the European Commission, control public debt and rearm faster - Politico

• The EU may introduce retaliatory duties on imports from the US in May - FT. European authorities have already begun to work out a list of possible measures that will cause maximum harm to the US economy and will not give much "return" to the economy of the European Union itself. In particular, the possibility of introducing duties against Boeing is being considered.

• The Italian Prime Minister believes that the EU should not impose retaliatory sanctions against the US. According to Meloni, retaliatory measures could primarily affect the European economy.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could earn between $300 billion and $600 billion a year from tariffs - WSJ
That figure assumes little change in tariffs in the near term, as announced this week, but could help cover the cost of tax cuts Congress is considering.

• MAGA hats: “Make America Go Away” are gaining popularity in Greenland.

Markets reel from Trump tariffs, Apple stock plunge, trade wars and corporate reviews

2025-04-04T05:05:58+00:00

Latest stock market news

• US stock indices fell by 5-6% yesterday. Only the defensive XLV, XLP, XLU stayed around zero. A classic example of the genre, when investors start to fear a crisis. But there is no panic yet. And that means there may be even more pain ahead.
Trump said that things are "going very well."
By the way, Bitcoin is holding steady at around $83 thousand. But other cryptocurrencies have resumed their search for the bottom. Well, I don't envy the owners of altcoins at all now.

• Today was another day of suffering for Asia, with the Nikkei falling 3% and down 9.6% for the week, its biggest drop since the pandemic began in March 2020. Wall Street futures were initially steady but have since fallen about 0.7%, while European stock futures have fallen 0.3% to 0.6%.

The dollar has lost 2.7% for the week against the yen and 3.0% against the Swiss dollar, while the euro has gained 2.4%. So much for the rates that are bullish for the US dollar.

• It's no wonder that unexpected turns in US policy send investors running in fear: If you start an unprovoked trade war with allies and adversaries alike, with no clear goal other than apparently getting money or favors, don't be surprised if you don't end up high on investors' Christmas card lists.

For decades, global investors have put 70% of their equity wealth into U.S. stocks, analysts note, far exceeding the economy’s 26% share of global GDP. If that privileged status is lost, say, by the outbreak of a global trade war, money could well flow the other way.

The amounts at issue would dwarf any increase in tariffs on the dollar by the US, which is buying fewer imports, while squeezing out foreign investors with unhedged positions on Wall Street - which is most of them.

When it comes to encouraging additional investment in U.S. manufacturing, what firm wants to take a risk when the White House can change the rules on the fly?

If the idea is that these punitive tariff rates are just a bargaining ploy that can be relaxed if countries pay enough to satisfy Trump, that just highlights the problem. Unpredictability may be acceptable in game theory, but not when you’re a company risking billions of dollars in a multi-year investment decision.

• Apple's supply chains. Take Apple. Its supply chains are deeply rooted in Asia, where tariffs now range from 24% to 54%. Even if it could move some of its production to the States, a big problem, the resulting iPhones would cost many times more than they do now.

Apple's high profit margins mean the company is better able than most to absorb some of the tariffs in the short term, but it's those Kobe beef-like profit margins that justify the stock's sky-high rating.

• And spare a thought for the Fed, caught between an almost inevitable jump in consumer prices and a growing risk of recession as consumers and businesses cut spending. Fed funds futures rose another 9 basis points for December today, implying 99 basis points of cuts this year. That's a sure sign that markets think the rise in unemployment will outweigh (sorry) the jump in inflation and force the Fed to ease rates.

I think Fed Chairman Powell is looking forward to his speech on the economy today.

• The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 had their worst day in 5 years - since the pandemic. The magic seven lost a record $1 trillion in capitalization. Trump-pair-pa-pam.

• A neural network has passed the Turing test for the first time, scientists from the University of California, San Diego reported.
GPT-4.5 was mistaken for a human in 73% of cases, while living participants were mistaken for one in only 63%. The AI turned out to be more convincing than people in deception, the study notes.

• The US dollar is now used in almost 50% of global payments, the highest level in 12 years - Gavekal Research. Euro share falls
The US dollar has fallen against the euro by more than 2%, the biggest in 10 years, following Trump's tariffs.
The US dollar has fallen against major world currencies - the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, British pound.

• Canadian PM Carney: Canada to impose 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA trade agreement.

• US Vice President Vance: TikTok deal will be signed before Saturday deadline.
Experts believe that the TikTok deal is, to some extent, a bargaining chip in US-China tariff negotiations. Trump indirectly confirmed this by recently saying that the US could ease tariffs on China if a successful TikTok deal is reached.

• There is no panic in the market - the VIX fear index has not even broken through the 30 mark and remains below the peak of March 10. Sales are proceeding calmly and without excitement.

• Shares in global trade leader Maersk fall 7% on new US tariffs.

• The cost of Apple (AAPL) products could rise due to trade tariffs imposed by the United States.
Some of the highest tariffs are in countries where the company assembles its equipment: Vietnam (46%), China (34%) and India (26%).
Apple will either have to pay tariffs and lose profits, or pass on the costs to customers, writes The New York Times. The company's shares have already fallen by 5.7% in secondary trading.
BofA Securities adjusted its price target for Apple (AAPL) due to increased risks from China.
They expect Apple to cope with supply chain problems, but noted the potential impact on profits if the tariffs remain.

• The US House Financial Services Committee has backed a bill to regulate stablecoins.
Circle's USDC stablecoin is now the default currency for all new Binance Pay users.

• Chrysler's parent company, Stellantis (STLA), will temporarily suspend production at two plants in Mexico and Canada after new tariffs were imposed.

• Google Cloud (GOOG) announced an expanded partnership with Papa Johns (PZZA) to improve their ordering and delivery systems using AI.

• Microsoft (MSFT) has suspended several data center construction projects around the world,
raising questions about demand and construction issues.

• Micron Technology (MU), On Semiconductor (ON), and Broadcom (AVGO) have been identified as vulnerable to new tariffs, according to Citi.
These companies face potential margin volatility and market pressure from tariffs.

• European stocks fell the most since August on tariff shock, with Walmart (WMT), Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT) discussing sales losses after tariff announcements.

• New tariffs are expected to impact prices and competition, raising concerns about the risks of inflation and recession.

• Gold prices fell as investors took profits amid overall market negativity.

• OPEC+ will increase oil production by 411 thousand barrels per day in April. Oil prices fell by 7%.

• RH shares fell 40% yesterday following the report.

Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- EU Construction PMI, German Industrial Orders, UK PMI.
- Speeches by Fed Chair Powell, Governors Waller and Barr.
- US Payrolls Report for March.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Trump declared an economic emergency last night,
giving him sweeping powers to impose tariffs. His order said disparate tariff rates and lack of reciprocity in bilateral trade relations, as evidenced by the U.S. trade deficit, have become an unusual and extraordinary national security threat.
The tariffs will remain in place until President Trump determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit and the nonreciprocity that underlies them is satisfied, eliminated, or mitigated - White House statement on new U.S. tariffs.

The US has not imposed reciprocal tariffs on Russia, Belarus, Cuba and North Korea. Because these countries "already face extremely high tariffs, and our previously imposed sanctions prevent any meaningful trade with these countries," a White House source explained to The New York Times.
China, which already faces a general 20% tariff on goods shipped to the US, will now face a 54% tariff - CNN.

• The US remains in NATO, - Rubio. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the US is part of NATO and we are as active as we were before, despite all the hysteria that is happening in the world.

• Austrian Economy Minister: To force Trump to the negotiating table, we need to impose tariffs that will hit Republican states and his friends, including tech companies.

• Macron calls on French companies to suspend investments in the US.

• Bessent urged all countries to "sit still and accept new tariffs": Everything we do must lead to long-term economic growth. We were on the road to a major financial crisis. My advice to every country right now is not to retaliate. Sit still. Accept it. Let's see how it goes, because if you retaliate, there will be an escalation.

• The EU offers Trump talks on lifting trade barriers. But will introduce retaliatory measures if the dialogue does not produce results, - von der Leyen.

• Britain intends to remain calm and work towards a trade deal with the US amid the introduction of tariffs by the Trump administration - UK Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds.

• Kazakhstan has announced the discovery of one of the largest rare earth metal deposits in the world - Reuters.
The deposit is located at a depth of up to three hundred meters and contains neodymium, cerium, lanthanum and yttrium. The total volume of estimated reserves is more than 20 million tons. If the information from the Kazakh authorities is confirmed, the country could take third place in the world after China and Brazil in terms of proven reserves.

• Hungary withdraws from the International Criminal Court. The government of Viktor Orban has officially announced its withdrawal from the ICC. This happened against the backdrop of a visit to the country by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - in November 2024, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against him.

• The United States has banned Americans in China from engaging in any romantic or sexual relationships with Chinese people, a rule not seen since the Cold War, Associated Press.

• Spain has been stopping issuing “golden visas” for investors since April. Similar decisions have already been taken by Ireland and Portugal. This decision by the Spanish government coincides with the recommendation of the European Commission, which in 2022 called on EU member states to abolish any programs that grant citizenship or residence rights in exchange for investment.

• Goldman Sachs estimates that new US tariffs will reduce China's GDP growth by another 1%, for an overall slowdown of 1.7%.

• The US will be hit hardest. Prices in America will rise by 5.5%, higher than anywhere else after Trump's new tariffs, - FT.

• UBS warns: If Trump's import tariffs become permanent, inflation will soar to 5% and the US economy will begin to decline. The reason is rising prices due to more expensive imports.
Inflation and recession on the horizon - not the best forecast for the market.

• Bets have begun to rise sharply that the Fed will cut rates more aggressively this year. UBS already expects the Fed to cut rates by another 0.75% to 1% in total this year./ But that doesn't match expectations for rising inflation.

• Morgan Stanley now does not expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025,
while it previously forecast one cut of 25 bps in June.

• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: US interest rates will be significantly lower.

• Fresh German Business Activity Data:
Services PMI 50.9 (expected 50.2 / previous 51.1).
Fresh Eurozone Business Activity Data: Services PMI 51.0 (expected 50.4 / previous 50.6).
Fresh Eurozone Inflation Data PPI p/y=3.0% (pop 1.7% adjusted).
m/m=0.7% (expected 0.3% / pop 0.7% adjusted).
S&P Global Services PMI 54.4 (expected 54.3 / pop 51.0).

• US Business Activity Indicators: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
50.8 (exp. 53.0 / pop. 53.5).

• The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed in February as exports rose and imports fell slightly.
However, the goods deficit and services surplus narrowed, reflecting ongoing trade challenges.

• Fitch downgraded China's rating to 'A' and its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.4% from 5% previously.
China said Fitch had made a bespoke decision.

Markets Await Liberation Day, Incredible Newsmax IPO, Company News and Geopolitics

2025-04-02T05:19:37+00:00

Latest stock market news

• With less than 24 hours to go before US President Donald Trump unveils his retaliatory tariff plans to a nervous world, market action has slowed to a crawl as investors hunker down and minimise their risks in anticipation of a likely volatile response. Meanwhile, only gold prices are showing signs of life. Asian shares were choppy but held in tight ranges after Wall Street managed to end an equally volatile session with more confidence. Futures point to a muted open in Europe.

• Yesterday was the final day of the quarterly rebalance. Now in the opposite direction - the market bought MAGS and sold the defensive XLV. As a result, US stock indices rose slightly. Long-term US government bonds also rose in price. The dollar is stable.

• Investors have been focused for weeks on what Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day,” which is expected to bring dramatic new tariffs on allies and foes alike. The announcement in the White House Rose Garden is scheduled for 20:00 GMT on Wednesday. The threat of retaliation from other countries suggests the period of uncertainty is far from over. And whatever form Trump’s trade plan ultimately takes, tariffs do not all work equally.

The tariffs are set to go into effect immediately, leaving little room for negotiation and the possibility of widespread responses from affected countries. In short, expect potentially sharp moves in markets.

• Trade war fears: The devil is in the details of the trade plan after media reports suggested tariffs could be raised by around 20% on imports from almost every country, rather than targeting specific countries or products. Trump has already imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel and cars, while increasing duties on all goods from China. That has rattled markets as fears grow that a full-scale trade war could trigger a sharp slowdown in the global economy.

• Gold prices have soared in these uncertain times, reaching record highs above $3,000 an ounce. The yellow metal is up 19% this year, following a 27% gain in 2024, its strongest annual performance in more than a decade.

• Chinese regulators have approved licenses for two companies for the first time in history to operate autonomous passenger drones - flying taxis
Japan's Nikkei stock market has returned to 1989 levels - 35 years later.

• If you had invested in Japanese stocks at the peak of the late 1980s, you would only now be breaking even. In 1989, the Japanese market reached record highs amid an economic boom, but soon fell. The reason was a bubble in the real estate and stock markets, inflated by cheap credit and speculation.

• Goldman cut its forecast for the Stoxx Europe 600 to 510 points over a 3-month horizon from 560 previously due to tariffs.

• The Magnificent Seven index has fallen more than 20% from its January peak and is seemingly entering a bear market - FT.

• Newsmax (NMAX) shares are being hyped online - it held an IPO on Monday with an impressive start. The company's shares, which started at $10, soared to $265.
Newsmax is an American media company whose main distribution channels are television and radio, and whose income is generated through advertising. Such an unexpected jump in the traditional media market causes heated discussions.

• OpenAI, the developer of the popular ChatGPT, has raised $40 billion in new funding from SoftBank and other investors.
The round values the startup at $300 billion, according to a March 31 statement from the company.

• SoftBank will provide 75% of the funding, with the remaining 25% provided by Microsoft, Coatue Management, Altimeter Capital and Thrive Capital.

• Tether bought 8,888 BTC. At the turn of the quarters, Tether bought 8,888 BTC worth $735 million. This happened either on the last day of Q1 or the first day of Q2, depending on how you interpret the time zone.

• On April 5, the US will publish the results of an audit of digital assets. This will be the first-ever full report on the government's crypto reserves.
According to current estimates, the US has about 200,000 BTC (approximately $16 billion). The audit should clarify whether the state also owns XRP, SOL, ADA and other crypto assets.

• Mastercard is developing a platform for simple and secure transactions with digital assets - an analogue of Venmo, but for the blockchain.
The goal is to connect banks, users and businesses into a single network for working with cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets and DeFi.

• Tesla (TSLA) expected to report significant sales decline in Q1 2025 - BBG.

• Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds at the end of 2025 to 4%, down from its previous forecast of 4.35%.

• SpaceX has launched the first crewed mission into orbit around the Earth's poles. The crew is expected to spend three to five days in space, during which they will take part in 22 research experiments studying the effects of spaceflight and microgravity on human health.

• Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) announced a strategic move by acquiring a 50.1% stake in Angel Oak Companies, a firm known for its mortgage and investment banking.
The acquisition is part of Brookfield’s ongoing expansion into the private credit sector, its largest growth driver. Angel Oak, which manages more than $18 billion in assets, will continue to operate independently, offering Brookfield investors access to its specialized residential mortgage lending strategies.

• In the technology sector, Google (GOOG)-backed Lightmatter has unveiled a new photonic technology aimed at improving AI infrastructure.
The M1000 interposer and new chiplet are designed to improve connections between AI accelerators, marking a significant advance in semiconductor packaging. This innovation is expected to improve the efficiency of AI processing.

• In the airline sector, Jefferies downgraded several airlines, including American Airlines (AAL, -2%) and Delta Air Lines (DAL, -3%), to Hold, citing consumer disappointment and the potential impact of future fares.
The cautious stance reflects concerns about corporate spending cuts and a revised outlook for 2025.

• Becton Dickinson (BDX) is in talks with Thermo Fisher (TMO) and Danaher (DHR) to sell its life sciences unit.
The company is exploring a tax-free stock swap or potential spinoff, with plans to complete the transaction by next year.

• U.S. LNG exports rose in March, driven by capacity expansion at the Plaquemines plant. The U.S. exported 9.3 million tonnes of LNG in March, breaking the December 2023 record of 8.6 million tonnes, as production was supported by the ramp-up of Stage 1 production at Venture Global Inc.'s plant.

• Volkswagen, Stellantis and other carmakers fined $495 million for cartel deal with EU - Reuters

• Alibaba (BABA) is preparing to launch a flagship AI model as early as April, Bloomberg. Artificial intelligence companies have been releasing new products at a feverish pace in recent months as competition has intensified following the meteoric rise of Chinese company DeepSeek earlier this year.

• Progress Software (PRGS) shares jumped 12% on better-than-expected results from the AI company.

Key events that could impact markets on Wednesday:
Trump to announce retaliatory tariffs at 20:00 GMT

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Manufacturing in Europe continues to contract (indices below 50)
Eurozone - Manufacturing PMI (March) = 48.6 (previously 47.6)
Germany - Manufacturing PMI (March) = 48.3 (previously 46.5)
UK - Manufacturing PMI (March) = 44.9 (previously 46.9)
EUROZONE - Consumer Inflation CPI (March):
+2.2% y/y (expected +2.2% / previously +2.3%)
core CPI = +2.4% y/y (expected +2.5% / previously +2.6%)

• Latest US business activity data:
S&P Manufacturing PMI (March) = 50.2 (previously 52.7)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) = 49.0 (previously 50.3)
/ The ISM (Purchasing Managers Index) is one of the key indicators of the macroeconomic cycle. It is a monthly survey of supply chain managers, assessing orders, inventories and employment. A reading above 50 indicates economic growth, while a reading below indicates contraction.

US - JOLTS Job Openings (atd) = 7.568 million (approx. 7.69 million / previously 7.74 million 7.762 million).
Job openings hit their lowest level since September amid a cooling labor market.

The Atlanta Fed has lowered its forecast for US GDP for the first quarter of 2025 to -3.7%.

• Excluding gold imports, the decline will be -1.4%.
The reason is a slowdown in consumer spending.

• Trump's net worth has grown from $2.3 billion in 2024 to $5.1 billion in 2025, according to the Forbes USA ranking of the richest people on the planet
. The US president's most expensive asset is Trump Media and Technology Group with a net worth of $2.6 billion. His main assets also include:
- Mar-a-Lago ($368 million) - a private club resort;
- American Golf Clubs ($338 million) - a network of ten golf courses in six states;
- Trump National Doral Miami ($248 million) - a golf resort.

• White House: "Trump to deliver remarks in Rose Garden." That's when the new tariffs are expected to be announced. That is, after the stock market closes, to reduce the immediate impact. Will we be surprised on Thursday?

• Barkin (Fed): "Bond market is pricing in higher recession risk."

• White House: Trump plans to visit Saudi Arabia in May. He may meet with Putin there.

• The EU intends to negotiate tariffs with the US from a position of strength, relying on the size of its market and technological achievements - von der Leyen.
The EU has prepared a plan for tough measures in response to US tariffs, but does not want to apply them yet, hoping for a negotiated solution.

• Democratic approval ratings remain low, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, The Hill. Only 37% of voters in March said they approved of the party, up 1%, or within the margin of error, from the previous month.

• China sends Trump signal: Trump's tariffs on Russian oil will worsen US ties with China and India - China Daily.

• The Chinese army has begun comprehensive military exercises around Taiwan, Shi Yi, a spokesman for the PLA's Eastern Combat Zone Command, said.

• Up to 300,000 people could die: Japan is preparing for a powerful earthquake of magnitude 8-9 on the Richter scale. Which will happen with an 80% probability. Evacuation may be required for 1.23 million Japanese - 1% of the country's total population. The mega-earthquake could cause damage of $1.8 trillion.

• Finland will increase defence spending to at least 3% of GDP by 2029.

• Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen will meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week in the first high-level talks since Trump's re-election and renewed interest in Greenland - FT

1.1% - average investor return for March and 3.6% since the beginning of 2025 under the management of Masters

2025-04-01T10:05:49+00:00

Tariffs put pressure on everyone except the Masters' clients!

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Profits may vary by tenths of one percent for different investors.
Each investor sees their account balance and all open trading positions online.

{loadposition reports}

Latest Stock Market News, Markets Awaiting Liberation Day, Corporate and Geopolitical Events

2025-04-01T06:14:38+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The morning drop in US stock indices was bought out, which gives bulls hope for continued growth. However, it should be taken into account that this could simply be a rebalance at the transition between quarters. The weakness of small-cap stocks and the strength of Value stocks are indicative.
The rebalance was from Attack to Defense. Everything is calm in the morning. Gold continues to rise in price and Bitcoin is growing by 2% above $83 thousand.

• The deep breath global markets are taking ahead of Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement looks set to continue into the European session, with futures pointing to gains. Wall Street's relatively brief respite was reinforced in Asia, with some markets such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea jumping 1% or more after Monday's sharp declines. But nerves are still high as Supreme Safe Haven Gold hits record highs for the fourth straight season.

To be more precise, nothing has really changed: We are still no wiser about what Trump is going to announce on Wednesday. Any expectations that trading partners would be able to negotiate were apparently dashed by the US president’s announcement on Sunday night that essentially every country would be hit with tariffs on each other.

Late Monday, the White House released an encyclopedic list of foreign policies and regulations it considers trade barriers.

Trump has said he is willing to accept higher consumer prices at home to restore fairness in global trade, even as recent high CPI readings have heightened market fears of stagflation.

Raising bets on a potential economic slowdown from tariffs, Goldman raised its estimate of the likelihood of a recession to 35% and predicted three Fed rate cuts this year.

• US jobs data: There's plenty of information expected this week on the health of the US economy, particularly the labor market, with the JOLTS report due today, the ADP report a day later, and monthly payrolls data on Friday, when Fed Chairman Jay Powell also speaks on the economic outlook.

• In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde and fellow ECB member Philip Lane will speak separately at a conference in Frankfurt today, where data on consumer prices, manufacturing PMI and the eurozone unemployment rate will be released.

• The UK will also release its manufacturing PMI and the Bank of England's Megan Green will give a keynote speech at the Royal Economic Society in London.

• Meanwhile, French far-right politician Marine Le Pen plans to quickly appeal her embezzlement conviction, which bars her from running in the 2027 presidential election. Le Pen, a front-runner to succeed Emmanuel Macron, maintains her innocence and calls the ruling politicized.

Le Pen's five-year ban on holding public office cannot effectively be suspended by appeal, although she retains her seat in parliament until the end of her term.

• Gold hits record high at >$3,170 an ounce. Central bank purchases and ETF demand are supporting gold prices.
Goldman Sachs forecasts gold could trade at $4,500 and expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, by 25 bps, instead of the two previously forecast.

• Agreement to sell TikTok will be concluded by April 5, - Trump. Back in January of this year, Trump set a deadline for finding a new - non-Chinese - owner for the app in the US.

• Morgan Stanley believes that robotics and physical AI will start generating revenue earlier than expected. Morgan Stanley analysts revised their forecast after the NVIDIA GTC conference, where it became clear that investments in this area are already active and fit into the current business cycle.

• Hut 8, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. created American Bitcoin, a company for industrial mining and strategic accumulation of Bitcoin.

• FTX to start paying out compensation over $50,000. Liquidators of the bankrupt exchange FTX will start paying out compensation for claims of $50,000 and above from May 30.
According to FTX attorney Andrew Ditderich, the funds for the payments will be taken from the $11.4 billion accumulated since the bankruptcy.

• The US government has no plans for Dogecoin (DOGE). Musk denied rumors about possible government use of DOGE.
He called Dogecoin “the people’s crypto,” but emphasized that this is not a serious initiative.

• Japanese stocks end quarter with biggest drop since Covid - BBG

• Goldman Sachs Group analysts have raised their estimate of the probability of a recession in the US economy in the next twelve months from 20% to 35%.
The change in forecast, among other things, reflects a sharp deterioration in consumer and business confidence and statements from the White House that “indicate an increased willingness to tolerate economic weakness in the near term in an effort to implement its policies,” the analysts note.

• Circle is preparing for an IPO, with filing expected in late April.

• Tesla offers 3-year interest-free loans on updated Model Y in China.

• Mr. Cooper Group (COOP) shares rose sharply after it agreed to be acquired by Rocket Companies (RKT) for $9.4 billion. The acquisition would create a company that would service a significant portion of U.S. mortgages, strengthening Rocket's AI-powered platform.

• Nokia (NOK) has reached a patent agreement with Amazon (AMZN), resolving a lawsuit over video technology used in Amazon's streaming services. The terms remain confidential, but the agreement ends disputes in several jurisdictions.

• Arm (ARM) plans to increase its share of the data center processor market to 50% by 2025. Despite the recent drop in its stock price, Arm's technology, known for its lower power consumption, positions the company well against competitors like Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD).

• Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A, LGF.B) received a rating upgrade from JP Morgan as the company plans to split its Starz and Lionsgate Studio businesses. The split is expected to drive up the company's value and improve investor sentiment.

• AT&T (T) declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2775 per share, which has been stable for thirteen quarters, keeping the forward yield at 3.94%. This stability continues to attract income-oriented investors.

• Sempra (SRE) plans to sell some energy infrastructure assets in Mexico to fund its five-year capital investment plan as the company seeks to simplify its business and focus on investments in regulated utilities in Texas and California.

• Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) has authorized a $50 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in the company's financial position and future prospects.

• The Hang Seng Tech Index fell amid global market uncertainty.

• Motorola Solutions (MSI) announced the acquisition of InVisit, strengthening its Avigilon Alta security suite.
The deal, expected to close in Q2 2025, will expand Motorola's enterprise security solutions portfolio.

• TSMC (TSM) plans to create 7,000 jobs in Taiwan with a new plant, continuing its expansion despite concerns about its investments in the U.S.
The plant will produce advanced 2nm chips.

• CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fell 7% on their second day of trading. CoreWeave's life as a public company has gotten off to a rocky start.
GlobalFoundries (GFC) and Taiwanese chipmaker UMC are considering a merger, Nikkei reports.
The combined company would create a larger U.S.-based firm with a global manufacturing footprint.

• U.S. crude oil production fell to an 11-month low in January, EIA data showed. U.S. crude oil production fell 305,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January to 13.15 million bpd, the lowest since February 2024.

• Shares of biotech company Moderna (MRNA) fell 9% after FDA official Peter Marks resigned. The resignation of FDA top official Peter Marks is causing concern on Wall Street as he awaits his replacement.

• Uranium Market Freezes as Trump Tariff Threats Spook Buyers - Bloomberg. U.S. nuclear power plants, spooked by Trump's tariff threats, are slowing purchases.

• Major commodity traders Gunvor and Vitol are expecting significant volumes of Russian-produced aluminium to be removed from storage facilities approved by the London Stock Exchange - RTRS.

Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:

- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, CPI, Unemployment Rate.
- ECB Lagarde and Lane speak.
- UK Manufacturing PMI.
- Bank of England's Green speaks.
- US JOLTS report.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Macron believes the euro could overthrow the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

• Inflation in Germany 2.2% y/y (expectation 2.2%/ pop. 2.3%).

• Fresh US Chicago PMI business activity indicators. 47.6 (exp. 45.5/prev. 45.5)

• US President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia in May for his first overseas visit, Axios reported, citing sources.

• Elon Musk has called for the Federal Reserve to be shut down once and for all.
He wonders why there are thousands of people working there if no one really understands what they are doing.
Musk also wants a live feed from Fort Knox to make sure the gold is still there. After all, he says, it belongs to the American people.
Musk: "Mars will be part of America."

• EU considers closing European market to US goods in response to Trump tariffs - El País.

• 'Time to punish Orban': New German government to demand restrictions on Hungary for violating EU principles - Politico

• Iran's Supreme Leader: The likelihood of a US strike on Iran from outside is low, and any attempt to destabilize the situation from within the country will be met with a tough response. This is how he commented on Trump's threat to bomb Iran if Tehran and Washington do not reach an agreement on the nuclear program.

• The leader of the French far-right Marine Le Pen and eight members of the European Parliament were found guilty of embezzling public funds in the case of European assistants - Euronews.
Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years of imprisonment, 2 of which were suspended. And an immediate loss of her voting rights for 5 years. The court's verdict excludes her from running in elections in France for 5 years.
Le Pen must also pay a fine of 100 thousand euros.
Le Pen is appealing the court's decision.

• Xi Jinping will visit Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia in early April. US President Donald Trump's possible introduction of tariffs on Russian oil will not affect its supplies to China - Chinese Foreign Ministry.

• US to raise military presence in Japan to wartime command level - Pentagon chief during visit to Tokyo.

Tariff wars, possible US recession, latest corporate and political news

2025-03-31T08:05:38+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Today is the last working day of the 1st quarter - this may add volatility. And the morning begins with a new wave of decline in stock index futures - another minus 1%. Gold is at a new historical maximum of $3139.
Bitcoin is below $82 thousand.

• It’s been a rough start to the week in Asia, with risk appetite sending stocks across the board lower while bonds have held on and gold has risen to a new record. Sentiment was fragile enough ahead of the U.S. tariff announcement on Wednesday, but President Trump made it even more fragile by telling reporters on Air Force One that the tariffs would hit all countries, not just a select few. He has a habit of dropping those comments early in the Asian trading day when liquidity is tight, causing big waves as a result.

The Nikkei led the rout, falling 3.8%, its biggest daily drop in six months, and virtually all of Asia was in the red. Nasdaq futures fell 1.3%, followed by futures on major European shares.

• Trump's new indifference to rising auto prices appears to have convinced analysts that he is serious about going all in. Goldman Sachs now expects retaliatory tariffs to average 15% across all US trading partners. In the same note, he raised the chance of a US recession from 20% to 35%, and the "R" word seems to be on everyone's lips.

• Recession Probability: Investors are betting that this coming slowdown will outweigh the inflationary impact of tariffs and push the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, although it would likely take a sharp rise in unemployment to justify such action. Markets have priced in about 60 basis points of easing from the ECB this year and 50 basis points for the Bank of England.

The thought of all this easing, coupled with a flight to safety, has been comforting for bond investors. Ten-year Treasury yields have fallen to 4.21% from a peak of 4.40% last Thursday. It remains to be seen whether the gains will continue as actual inflation data begins to show the impact of tariffs on prices.

For now, lower yields have pulled the dollar lower against the yen, and even the euro and pound have risen slightly. But yields aside, the dollar may find it harder to get its usual safe-haven momentum when the source of all this turbulence is the White House itself.

• I don't care if they raise prices. Americans will buy American cars - Donald Trump on automakers' concerns about tariffs April 2.

• French shun McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Tesla in protest against Trump - The Guardian

• Ozempic reduces shopping cravings: Scientists have found that the drug reduces cravings for alcohol, smoking and shopping. Research shows that drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, which mimic the satiety hormone GLP-1, can affect the brain's reward system.

• Investor survey shows they don't expect aggressive tariff increases - Goldman Sachs. The median estimate for the potential level of reciprocal tariffs is 9.3%, with the projected increase in the U.S. effective tariff rate by the end of 2025 at 8.6%.
But the Goldman Sachs team believes the initial proposed rate will be higher, potentially nearly double what market participants expect, Phillips writes.

• “Administration officials have made it clear that tariff rates will be announced soon as a basis for negotiations, which incentivizes the administration to offer higher rates initially,” Phillips wrote, explaining why the team believes tariffs will be higher than the market expects. “This has happened in recent experience with tariffs in Canada and Mexico, where high rates were imposed twice and then largely or completely reversed within days.”

• Elon Musk has sold the X social network to his AI startup xAI. He says the future of the two projects is closely intertwined, and the deal will unlock huge potential by combining the social network's vast reach and xAI's innovations.
X was valued at $33 billion, including $12 billion in debt - $11 billion less than the amount Musk paid for acquiring the platform. xAI, founded a year later, was valued at $80 billion. The deal was a stock swap,
reducing the risk of Musk's Tesla shares being liquidated.

• Fiscal stimulus does not offset the negative impact of tariffs on GDP growth, - Goldman Sachs.

• The U.S. Department of Defense announced plans to cancel a major contract with Leidos Holdings (LDOS) and Oracle (ORCL) to cut costs.
The program was significantly over budget and behind schedule.

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has reason to be optimistic as the US Army has decided to hold its Data Platform 2.0 program indefinitely in favor of the Palantir Vantage platform.
The move is expected to provide Palantir with significant revenue over the next four years.

• B2Gold (BTG) suffered a setback, with shares falling 8% after it unveiled a new mine plan for its Goose project in Canada.
The plan confirmed previous timelines and costs but showed a reduced resource estimate.

• The FCC has launched a new investigation into Walt Disney (DIS) and its ABC network, focusing on their DEI practices.
Concerns have been raised about possible equal employment opportunity violations.

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) unit ordered to pay $1.64 billion in HIV drug marketing case.

• Trump's tariffs will be in the spotlight this week as "Liberation Day" approaches on Wednesday, April 2.
The president is expected to announce tariffs on that day, with investors watching closely for specific details on how high the duties will be.

• Later this week, the focus will shift to the labor market, with the March employment report due on Friday. Attention is also expected to turn to updated data on private sector payrolls and job openings, as well as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors.

Key events likely to impact markets on Monday:
German retail sales, CPI and import prices
Speakers from the Riksbank and Norges Bank
Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for March

Current Fundamental Reviews

• For the US, the only threat is now China, the only priority is the defense of Taiwan, and everything else is secondary - WP received the Pentagon's secret strategy. The open secret has been revealed.

• Trump: US will 100% get Greenland. “We will get Greenland. Yes, 100%. There is a good chance that we can do it without military force, but I will not rule anything out,” Trump said.
If Iran does not make a deal, there will be bombing, - Trump.
Gegset: “US and Japan unite against Chinese aggression”
Trump said he is not going to fire Waltz and Gegset over the Signal scandal.

• Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will visit the White House in April for talks with Trump.

• The US Department of Defense has announced plans to lay off between 5 and 8% of its civilian workforce. The department currently employs about 950,000 civilians, so the layoffs could affect up to 76,000 people.

• Musk is working to overhaul NASA's programs and spending to focus its resources on getting humans to Mars - WSJ

• Trump could remain in power until 2037 thanks to a loophole in the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution - Daily Mail. He will be 90 years old.
Professor Bruce Peabody argues that the 22nd Amendment only prohibits "the re-election of a president who has already been elected twice", but such a head of state would not be prevented from subsequently holding the office again in the event of the resignation or death of another president.

• Trump wants to buy icebreakers from Finland. The future purchase of icebreakers by the United States to strengthen its influence in the Arctic was one of the key topics of discussion during an unofficial visit that Finnish President Alexander Stubb made to US President Donald Trump in Florida.

• The leader of the French far-right National Rally party, Marine Le Pen, risks losing her chance to run in the 2027 French presidential election. A Paris court is set to announce a ruling in the EU funds misuse case soon, and if it is not in her favor, the National Rally leader's political future will be at risk.

• There were unacceptable statements: in Germany, Merz was called upon to “eliminate pro-Russian ties” in his party. This call was made in connection with the statements of Merz’s fellow party member, the Prime Minister of the federal state of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, regarding the easing of sanctions against the Russian Federation.

• Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will visit Greenland on April 2-4 for talks with the semi-autonomous territory's new government - Reuters.

• The IDF announced the start of a ground operation in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.

• A nationwide campaign has begun in Turkey to oust President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and hold early elections.
Opposition CHP leader Ozgur Ozel has launched a signature drive in Trabzon calling for freedom for opposition presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu.

• The first orbital rocket from Europe crashed. It was the first time a private company from continental Europe attempted an orbital launch.

• In Greenland, four of the five parties that won the elections have formed a coalition and are thus working to form a new government. As stated in the coalition agreement, the parties "stand together for a safe, free and developing Greenland."

• The US State Department informed Congress about the closure of USAID. This was stated in a press release from the US State Department. The reorganization of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will be carried out by July 1. Some of its functions will be assumed by the State Department.

• Pentagon prepares to lay off up to 76,000 employees - Bloomberg. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signed a memorandum on reducing the number of civilian employees in the Defense Department due to the Trump administration's cuts in government spending.

• Poland will have to bring back conscription in the army. In order to obtain a mass reserve for the armed forces - Chief of the Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces General Maciej Klisz.

• Canada has no intention of cooperating with Russia in the Arctic, says Prime Minister Mark Carney. Canada will impose tariffs after the US announces new economic measures on April 2.

• "America is the central pillar that holds up all of Western civilization. If that pillar fails, it's all over," Musk.

• Europe should cut social spending and increase military spending at their expense, - former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
According to him, Americans are "irritated" by the fact that they pay more taxes for Europe's defense than the Europeans themselves. He also said that Europe should help preserve the Western alliance of countries and show that it is not a "freeloader" of the United States.

• Thousands of illegal migrants from Belarus end up in Germany - Bild. According to information received by Bild from security circles, thousands of illegal migrants who previously illegally entered Poland from Belarus (often using violence) across the external border of the EU are arriving in Germany.

• The Trump administration is considering allowing tax rates to rise on the wealthy if the 2017 tax cuts are not extended. That potential increase would return the top income tax rate to 39.6% from the current 37%.

• Hundreds of thousands of protesters have gathered in Istanbul in support of the city's arrested mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu. More than 2.2 million people are taking part in the protest, says Turkish opposition party leader Ozgur Ozel.

Market shock from tariffs on cars and their components, gold records, geopolitics and company news

2025-03-28T06:26:14+00:00

Latest stock market news

• The U.S.'s announced 25% tariff on auto imports is causing turmoil around the world, from Tokyo and Seoul to Wolfsburg and Detroit, as automakers warn of rising prices and consider shifting their production bases to cope with the shock. Shares in Japanese and South Korean automakers, the pillars of Asia's two powerful economies, fell sharply on Friday to end the week.

Nearly 3 trillion yen ($20 billion) has fallen from the market value of Japan's three biggest automakers - Toyota, Honda and Nissan - in three trading sessions this week.

Futures suggested European markets were in for a tough Friday, with the region's automakers in the spotlight. The European car and parts index was at its lowest since early December and set for a sixth straight week of losses.

US President Donald Trump's latest tariff salvo has drawn sharp criticism from politicians and industry leaders around the world. Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen said the entire auto industry and customers would have to "bear the negative consequences".

It's decision time for automakers, who must now decide whether to localize more production in the U.S., absorb the cost of tariffs, or pass those costs on to consumers.

Volvo Cars, Volkswagen Audi, Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai have already announced the transfer of part of their production.

Ferrari, which makes all its cars in Italy, said it would raise prices on some models by as much as 10%.

• Gold is rising. It seems like every major automaker faces an uncertain future. Well, almost all of them. Shares of Texas electric car maker Tesla have largely shrugged off concerns because its U.S.-market products are mostly sourced from domestic factories, with less reliance than other automakers on foreign parts.

Investors' attention now turns to the U.S. retaliatory tariffs to be announced next week, with markets seizing on Trump's suggestion that the tariffs could be soft. That leaves plenty of room for surprises, both pleasant and unpleasant.

Amid all the gloom, the rally in gold prices shows no sign of abating, breaking another record high in safe-haven flows. Gold has been comfortably above $3,000 an ounce since it breached that threshold in mid-March.

The yellow metal rose more than 17% between January and March, its best quarterly performance since 1986.

• Fed News: Boston Fed's Collins backs keeping interest rates on hold for 'longer'
St. Louis Fed's Musalem worries inflation from Trump tariffs won't be so 'temporary'
Business 'on pause' or 'paralyzed' until Washington 'fog' lifts, Richmond Fed's Barkin says

• Moody's close to downgrading US credit rating.

• Trafigura CEO suggests adapting traders' work schedules to Donald Trump's social media activities, - FT.

• OpenAI has closed shop - free users will no longer be able to use the new image generation.
The feature became so popular that it was simply disabled due to overload.
Now you will have to pay $20 for magical Ghibli-style art and other beauties.
OpenAI is approaching the completion of a $40 billion funding round led by SoftBank, which will be the largest round in history and increase the company's valuation to $300 billion.

• USDC Reaches $60B Market Cap, Surpassing Tether Circle's USDC stablecoin has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $60 billion in market cap - CoinMarketCap.

• Stablecoin Bill Is a Trump-Musk Scam Senator Elizabeth Warren has blasted the new stablecoin bill as a “Trump-Musk rip-off.”
She says the bill opens the door to financial fraud, ignores consumer protections, and favors elite interests.

• Bets on U.S. weakness fuel emerging market rally - Bloomberg
President Donald Trump said he is willing to cut tariffs on China to secure the Chinese government's support for the sale of TikTok's U.S. operations, Bloomberg reports.

• A number of Chinese companies, particularly in the IT sector, have received signals from the Chinese authorities about the possibility of resuming preparations for an IPO.
This may indicate a change in the government's attitude towards new listings on mainland Chinese exchanges, the newspaper notes. Previously, the authorities limited new placements, fearing that they could exacerbate the fall in the stock market - FT.

• Microsoft (MSFT) may create its own generative AI. Microsoft's CEO said it would complement its collaboration with OpenAI to make it easier to optimize Copilot.

• Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID) are the only automakers that make all of their vehicles sold in the U.S. domestically, according to BofA. “The tariffs will initially apply only to finished vehicles, but will begin May 3 to include major components — engines, transmissions, powertrains and electrical systems — with the potential to expand,” Bloomberg reported, citing a White House official.

• US copper prices rose to a record high on tariff fears, pushing the Comex-LME spread past $1,700/t, reflecting record profits from the arbitrage strategy of buying on the LME and selling on the Comex.

• Robinhood (HOOD) has unveiled an AI tool called “Cortex,” coming later this year. Cortex will provide real-time analytics, such as explanations for why stocks are moving, and will also include Trade Builder, a feature that helps turn market insights into options strategies with signals, technical analysis, and news.
These offerings aim to democratize access to premium financial services that have traditionally been reserved for the ultra-wealthy. Robinhood Strategies, a wealth management service, will be available to all Gold members with capped management fees, a competitive advantage in the fintech space.

• US robotics companies call for national strategy, with central office involved,
to compete with China.

• European stock markets fall on Trump car tariffs
- Germany's DAX down 0.8%
- Britain's FTSE 100 down 0.6%
- France's CAC 40 down 0.5%
- Spain's IBEX 35 down 0.4%
- Italy's FTSE MIB down 0.4%
Ferrari to raise prices 10% to offset Trump's tariff

• Neobank Revolut has released a mobile client for its Revolut X exchange.
The app is available to users from the UK and the European Economic Area (EEA). The app allows trading 220 crypto assets in pairs with the US dollar, euro and pound. As at the launch stage, the commission for makers will be 0%, for takers - 0.09%.

• Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,300 an ounce, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand for the precious metal and a steady influx of funds into gold-backed ETFs.

• Space X attracted investment from China through offshore companies - ProPublica. The company allows buying shares through the Cayman Islands.

• Nvidia (NVDA) is reportedly closing in on a deal to acquire Lepton AI, a startup that specializes in leasing servers powered by Nvidia chips. The acquisition would strengthen Nvidia's position in the cloud and enterprise software market, putting it in direct competition with major cloud providers like Amazon and Google.

• Amid ongoing trade tensions, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) faces potential challenges due to its high reliance on imported goods from China and Mexico.

• Deutsche Bank has labeled SWK as a "catalyst" idea for selling, expecting a short-term decline in the stock in the near future. The escalation of the trade war adds uncertainty to SWK's outlook.

• TD Synnex (SNX) Shares Slip on Rising Costs: IT solutions company TD Synnex missed its quarterly profit and sales forecasts due to rising costs.

• Jefferies (JEF) shares slip as company blames weak results on geopolitics. Jefferies missed quarterly earnings and revenue forecasts.

• Petco (WOOF) shares jumped Thursday after the pet supplies retailer released better-than-expected adjusted earnings guidance for fiscal 2025.

• SailPoint (SAIL) share price drop 'hard to explain' after IPO earnings, CEO says. He says demand remains very strong.

• CoreWeave (CRWV) is pricing its IPO at a discounted price of $40 per share, raising $1.5 billion. The AI cloud company originally planned to sell shares at between $47 and $55.
CoreWeave also cut the number of shares it was offering to 37.5 million from 49 million.

• LULU shares fall 10% after report. The company beat expectations, but slightly lowered its sales forecast.

• Markets were volatile in some areas yesterday. Semiconductors remain under pressure.
People are nervous about Trump's tariffs.
US Treasuries fell slightly after Moody's warned of a downgrade of the US credit rating.

• Key events that could impact markets on Friday:
- Economic events: UK Q4 GDP data, UK retail sales for February, French inflation data for March, German employment data for March, Eurozone sentiment survey data for March

Current Fundamental Reviews

• IMF: Incoming US data signal economic slowdown after strong 2024.
But US recession not in baseline forecast.

• US Macroeconomic Data
US - GDP (Q4 2024) = +2.4% q\q (exp. +2.3% / previous +3.1%)
US - Initial Jobless Claims = 224K (approx. 225K / previously 225K)
US - Trade Balance (February) = -$147.91B (approx. -$134.6B / previously -$155.57B)
US - Pending Home Sales (February) = +2% m/m (exp. +0.9% / previously -4.6%)
US Consumer Sentiment Falls to 12-Year Low on Trade War Worries
Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply, Conference Board Reports

• Washington told EU to prepare for more tariffs before any talks, - Reuters

• Macron: We have no right to confiscate frozen Russian assets. There is no legal basis for confiscating frozen Russian assets; their fate will be decided within the framework of negotiations on the restoration of Ukraine.

• Europe will definitely not ease sanctions against Russia until July, despite Moscow’s demands for a ceasefire in the Black Sea - Euractiv.

• The EU is outraged that Russia and the US are discussing the restoration of Nord Stream without their participation - Politico.

Since March 26, ports in EU countries have been prohibited from providing transshipment services for liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced in the Russian Federation.
The relevant sanctions were adopted last year, but a deferment of execution was granted until March 26, 2025, for contracts concluded before June 25, 2024.

• German politicians are calling on the European Union to respond decisively to the 25 percent tariffs on car imports announced by Donald Trump - DW.

• North Korea has flown its first AWACS (reconnaissance) aircraft, based on the Ilyushin Il-76, for the first time.
Kim Jong-un said the new aircraft would be key to tracking threats and gathering intelligence.

• Panama to deregister more than 100 tankers linked to Russia - Bloomberg The move, part of a pledge last year to punish blacklisted vessels, could result in up to $2 million in lost revenue.

• The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is planning significant cuts at several agencies, including the FDA and the CDC.
The cuts are expected to affect about 10,000 full-time workers. The restructuring reflects a broader trend of staff reductions at the department since the start of President Trump's second term.

Current stock exchange and geopolitical news for traders, calm in the markets, possible revision of tariffs

2025-03-25T05:35:48+00:00

Latest stock market news

• Fly in cheaper - yesterday the mood on the markets was to buy risk. Stock indices rose by an average of 2%. Purchases were made on a broad front. US government bonds fell by 1%. The Japanese yen also fell.
Everything is calm in the morning.

• The prospect of tighter-than-expected US tariffs has reignited investor optimism in recent days, but the softening rally in stocks is already showing signs of easing amid ongoing uncertainty about what happens next.

Asian shares followed Wall Street's lead and rose in early Asian trading on signs that talks could be underway to lift or narrow the scope of the bilateral tariffs, which are due to be announced on April 2. But by midday, Asian shares were wavering, while U.S. and European stock futures were down. The market swings underscore investor concerns about U.S. tariffs and the damage they could do to the global economy and corporate profits.

• US President Donald Trump signaled on Monday that not all of his threatened tariffs would be implemented on April 2 and that some countries could get relief. He also warned that auto tariffs would soon be imposed and imposed a 25% secondary tariff on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela.

• Among currencies, the focus during Asian hours was on the Indonesian rupiah, which fell to its lowest since the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s amid overall dollar strength and concerns about the financial health of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

• Investor confidence is weakening in Indonesia, where the stock market bore the brunt of investor discontent last week over Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's sweeping social spending plans.

• The dollar neared a three-week high against the yen and the euro after positive U.S. services data eased some concerns about the direction of the economy. But overshadowing all the action in markets is what is happening with tariffs — already imposed, proposed and underway — and whether they could undermine economic growth in the United States.

• International investors poured $43.4 billion into equity funds last week, the largest amount this year,
more than three-quarters of which went into U.S. equity funds. Local investors are snapping up shares of sharply weakened U.S. companies in anticipation of a rebound, according to BofA/EPFR.

• China's BYD reports 34% YoY profit growth in 2024 More trouble for Tesla China's best-known automaker has seen rapid sales growth in 2024, selling 500,000 more vehicles than forecast.

• Xiaomi sells shares worth $5.3 billion. The company wants to expand its car production.

• OPEC+ intends to implement plans to increase oil production in May.

• Google DeepMind (GOOG) CEO said that AI capable of competing with humans in any task will appear within 5-10 years.

• BlackRock is trimming its exposure to European high-yield bonds in favor of US ones. The company previously favored Europe, but now the spreads in the regions are almost equal, making that preference meaningless.

• Intel (INTC) has a chance to become 'viable' Intel has a chance for better times under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, but it will take some time, according to Band of America analyst Vivek Arya.

• Copper prices rose on Monday as traders took into account signs that US President Donald Trump's tariffs would be more targeted than expected.

• Fidelity, Schwab Block Orders for BlackRock, Texas Capital ETFs - Bloomberg Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab Corp. are barring clients from investing in money market ETFs on their trading platforms, an unusual move for financial giants that typically allow easy access to funds that are already trading.

• UK AI startup Fyxer has raised money from Benioff and other tech giants - Bloomberg. Fyxer AI, a productivity tools company, has raised $10 million from a group of prominent tech investors led by Harry Stebbing's venture capital firm 20VC.

• China's commerce minister tells Apple CEO the company may expand investment in China - Reuters

• Hyundai to invest $20 billion in U.S. manufacturing, reports say.

• Smithfield Foods (SFD) shares rose 3% after being added to the Russell 1000 index.

• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) shares rose 30% after the space company reported a 79% jump in fourth-quarter revenue on a surge in contracts.

• First public company with 500K BTC. Strategy (MSTR) has become the first public company to hold more than $500,000 BTC in Bitcoin, worth over $44 billion.
My bet is that BTC will hit $110K before testing $76.5K again,” Arthur Hayes.

• Fidelity has filed with the SEC to register a tokenized fund, the Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund. The fund invests in U.S. cash and bonds, joining BlackRock and Franklin Templeton in the $4.77 billion tokenized real-world asset (RWA) space.

• World Network (WLD) Discusses Partnership with Visa. World Network (Worldcoin project) is in talks with Visa about creating a wallet for stablecoin payments. The integration could turn World Wallet into an analogue of a “mini-bank account” available to any user.

• SEC launches “Crypto 2.0” initiative
- Establishment of Presidential Task Force on Cryptocurrency
- On-chain and off-chain transactions must comply with traditional securities standards
- Increased oversight of centralized exchanges and DeFi platforms
- Creates DART system for tracking and reporting digital assets

• BBG Law analysts estimate the probability of the US government starting to buy BTC for crypto reserves this year as not very high, since there are already confiscated reserves, etc. + the implementation will be delayed.
Experts from the crypto industry believe that there may be many more positive surprises in this regard this year.

• OKLO shares are down 7% in premarket trading after the report. They were up 14% in stock trading yesterday.
The nuclear startup reported growing annual losses and noted that “significant” financial losses are expected in the near future.

• KBH shares are down 7% in premarket trading after the report. They were up 3% yesterday in stock trading.
The developer reported weak results amid a “subdued” start to the spring sales season.
The company also lowered its full-year guidance.
The lower guidance “primarily reflects the lower level of net orders we received in the first quarter.”

• Bank of America is set to appoint Vikram Sahu as its new country head for India.

• Sovereign wealth fund Danantara Indonesia has named a "dream team" of former presidents Sachs, Dalio and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin.

• Oaktree's Banca Progetto has been placed under special administration in Italy.

• BMO changes some mortgage rules for steel and aluminum owners due to trade war.

• US lifts sanctions on Tornado Cash, crypto mixer accused of laundering North Korean money.

• The source says the ECB will decide on a broader use of the capital-friendly rule next week.

• Sources say top executives at India's IndusInd Bank have been forced to resign; the bank denies the news.

• Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD's fourth-quarter profit rose 73%.

• In February, electric vehicles from Volkswagen and BMW overtook Tesla in sales in Europe.

• The head of the US-China Relations Committee said that China and the US need to cooperate on artificial intelligence.

• Some Chinese steelmakers are starting to cut production, heeding national calls.

• US retailers haggle with suppliers after Trump imposes tariffs.

• The acting head of the SEC voted alone against filing a lawsuit against Musk.

• US first-quarter earnings outlook looks less bright on tariff concerns.

• NYK Line chief says Japan and Korea will struggle to meet US demand for non-Chinese shipbuilding

• With the economic calendar in Europe relatively light, global trade tensions will remain in focus, even if market reactions are likely to be muted for now.

Key events that could impact markets on Tuesday:
- Economic events: German business climate survey for March from the Ifo Institute.

Current Fundamental Reviews

• Fresh German business activity data:
Flash Manufacturing PMI = 48.3 (exp. 47.1/pop. 46.5).
Flash Services PMI = 50.2 (exp. 52.3/pop. 51.1).

• Fresh Eurozone business activity indicators:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI = 48.7 (v. 48.3/ pop. 47.6).
Eurozone Services PMI = 50.4 (exp. 51.2/ pop. 50.6).

• US Business Activity Indicators:
S&P Global Services PMI = 54.3 (prev. 51.2/ pop. 51.0).
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI = 49.8 (exp. 51.9/ pop. 52.7).

• U.S. business activity picked up in March, but growing concerns about import tariffs and deep government spending cuts continued to weigh on sentiment and the outlook for the rest of the year.

• Fed's Bostic sees only one rate cut this year, not two.
Sentiment at the U.S. central bank has gradually shifted toward smaller rate cuts, even as the White House calls for action.

• The US could face a cash crunch by July if it doesn't raise the debt ceiling - NYT.
The so-called X-date - the point at which the US will be unable to meet its financial obligations - will occur between mid-July and early October. That could lead to a default if Congress doesn't raise the borrowing limit.

• The US is reconsidering plans for new tariffs. According to the WSJ, the White House is likely to soften the announced duties, which are scheduled to take effect on April 2. Tariffs on cars, microchips and other industrial goods could be delayed or canceled.

• "Not a good ally": J.D. Vance said Denmark, which controls Greenland, is not doing its job
US Vice President J.D. Vance said that if the United States should increase its influence and territorial interest, then President Donald Trump will do it.
An American delegation is traveling to Greenland.
It includes the second lady of the United States, the wife of the country's vice president, Ushu Vance. The trip is scheduled for Thursday.
Also participating will be US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who will visit the Pituffik space base on the island.

• The US is imposing an additional duty on goods from Venezuela.
Any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% duty to the US.

• Israel plans large-scale military operation in Gaza Strip with temporary control of territory - WP.

• Romania and Bulgaria are concerned that negotiations between Russia and the US in Saudi Arabia could seriously change the situation in the Black Sea in Russia’s favor - FT.

• More than 13 million primaries participants nominated Imamoglu as a candidate for the presidency of Turkey.
In total, 15 million citizens took part in the primaries of the opposition Republican People's Party. This is almost a quarter of all registered Turkish voters.

• Germany is preparing to deploy American long-range missiles by 2026. German authorities consider this part of their security strategy, adopted in 2023 due to the “increased threat from Russia.” The German embassy in Moscow confirmed that the decision is in the country’s national interests.

• Egypt is building a new capital for $45 billion - a megacity of the future that will challenge the world's business centers.
The project began in 2015, but the name of the city is still being kept secret.
The new administrative center will be located to the east of Cairo, right up to the Suez Canal, and will be able to accommodate up to 6.5 million people. The authorities promise that it will become an economic and business giant on par with the world's leading megacities.

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: “We do not rule out the possibility of selling government bonds owned by the central bank.”

• China considers curbing its own exports to appease Trump - WSJ.
Chinese officials are reportedly studying Japan's 1980s strategy of cutting exports and raising prices.

• If nothing changes, US tariffs on other countries will rise much more in Trump's second term than in his first - BofA.

• Youth lasts up to 45 years: WHO has changed the age classification, and now up to 45 years old you are still young, - director of the Institute of Demography
Up to 60 years old is middle age, up to 75 is elderly, people 90+ are long-livers.