http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09012026 Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:50:42 GMT 6a9748c4a6791958c5b20193 Matthew Graham More War. More Selling Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news regarding new air strikes in Iran caused an immediate reaction in oil prices. This was more than enough to reverse the rally that followed this morning's 10am ET economic data. Oil prices hit the highest level since late July and bond yields matched the highest closing levels since January 2025. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.6 vs 55.2 f'cast, 55.6 prev ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Aug) 71.1 vs 72 f'cast, 71.1 prev USA JOLTS Job Openings (Jul) 7.271M vs 7.3M f'cast, 7.359M prev Market Movement Recap 08:54 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3bps at 4.784 10:17 AM Stronger after 10am data, but still weaker on the day. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1bp at 4.761 12:32 PM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.786 02:11 PM MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.791 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09012026 Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:00 GMT 6a9731396a0c3f9026fa2b32 Matthew Graham Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate hit the highest levels since June 2025. Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture. At 6.89%, we're still well below that June 2025 high of 6.97%.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-09012026 Tue, 01 Sep 2026 15:50:03 GMT 6a96c429763d0ccf494eb6e1 Rob Chrisman I don’t know where August went, but it went somewhere. We’re now two thirds of the way through the 3rd quarter of 2026. Lenders and vendors are adapting to a lackluster homebuying “season,” stubborn rates, and origination costs around $11k per loan. Lenders are trying to drive that cost down through higher pull through. Labor Day is next Monday, and “Talk Like a Pirate Day” is the 19th. Loan originators are watching demographics, people in their 20s, and are also following trends in the rental markets and with landlords. Along these lines, here are some great landlord stats (updated regularly). For stats about households, our Census Bureau puts out some good information. For example, in 2022, more than half of American households were childless: 29 percent were married households without children, and 28.9 percent were single households without kids. More than a quarter of households included parents: 17.8 percent were married households, while 8.1 percent were single-parent households. Certainly households are changing… does your product mix, originator base, and investor mix reflect that? (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. With tools built for modern lending, Zillow Home Loan’s loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an interview with Zillow's Meg McGrath Vaccaro on Zillow Home Loans’ AI strategy: from helping buyers and automating mortgage workflows to enabling smarter pricing conversations, and how Zillow’s unique ecosystem could reshape the entire mortgage industry.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09012026 Tue, 01 Sep 2026 13:45:35 GMT 6a96e528a6791958c5b13de0 Matthew Graham Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday correlation with oil prices that we've almost always seen on days without another compelling motivation for bonds. That said, oil prices still moved higher, so we can't discount its impact. If we zoom out, the correlation improves, but we can still see that bonds have some of their own, non-oil-related concerns (issuance, Fed policy, etc.). Counterpoint: tankers and semi trucks don't run on crude oil. From here, econ data will be a risk/opportunity as well with relevant data every morning through the end of the week (starting at 10am ET today with ISM and JOLTS).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08312026 Mon, 31 Aug 2026 21:00:15 GMT 6a95f99ca6791958c5afa157 Matthew Graham Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse 10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend.  Market Movement Recap 09:33 AM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.753 12:24 PM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.9 bps at 4.761 04:01 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.744 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08312026 Mon, 31 Aug 2026 20:02:00 GMT 6a95dedee97d5f281579d0c1 Matthew Graham Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose ground, rates rise, all else equal. Mortgage rates were already fairly close to longer-term highs last week. Today's increase was just enough to nudge the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.87%--the highest since June 2025. While that sounds fairly gloomy, the average borrower wouldn't see any difference from those seen on July 23rd, 2026. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-08312026 Mon, 31 Aug 2026 14:34:09 GMT 6a95735c2f5ebb9826f785f3 Rob Chrisman Grammar is important. Let’s not forget the comma… the difference between “I want you to eat, my friend” and “I want you to eat my friend.” Let’s not forget training, and I received this note. “Rob, plenty of conferences offer continuing education. Do any organizations offer CE?” Yup. Lenders One members receive it as a free benefit for all their LOs. (Contact Tricia Migliazzo.) Let’s not forget community housing, and more than 100 community-based fair housing organizations facing potential funding losses received a reprieve after a federal judge in Massachusetts blocked a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funding overhaul that advocates said threatened to close organizations or sharply reduce services nationwide. The U.S. District Judge granted relief sought by the National Fair Housing Alliance and Massachusetts Fair Housing Center, setting aside HUD’s fiscal year 2025 funding notices and directing the agency to distribute the money under the structure used the previous year. Let’s not forget to have some fun: They’re already talking about the annual mortgage ski trip in early March to Park City, some of the banter is social, and some is focused on business. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. With tools built for modern lending, Zillow Home Loan’s loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an interview with Two Dots’ Henson Orser on the wave of innovative tech products and vendors flooding the mortgage market.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08312026 Mon, 31 Aug 2026 14:13:38 GMT 6a959ab0a6791958c5aee83d Matthew Graham Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end positioning. While it's true oil prices are higher than Friday, the spike in bond yields didn't correlate in a manner typically consistent with oil being the driver. Also, there is a relatively sharp move underway in the yield curve (i.e. 2yr yields remain unchanged while 10yr yields are 5+ bps higher). Heavy curve trading in the absence of obvious catalysts and related market correlation all but confirm "month-end trading" (unless there's a huge corporate bond announcement that we missed).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08282026 Fri, 28 Aug 2026 21:22:11 GMT 6a920af8a6791958c5aa3ead Matthew Graham Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond market volatility. Today's Warsh speech was something of a direct hit--more than enough to sink the battleship of anyone hoping for lower rates to end the week. Warsh's hawkishness was limited to tough talk on inflation and an upbeat assessment of the economy. It wasn't terribly different from the late July press conference, but the market viewed it as upgrading the chance of a rate hike before the end of 2026. 2yr Treasury yields (more sensitive to Fed rate expectations than the 10yr) rose more than 12bps by the close. MBS shed 3/8ths of a point and mortgage rates crested 3 week highs. Market Movement Recap 09:04 AM Sideways to slightly weaker. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.68 10:18 AM MBS down a quick eighth after Warsh speech and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.686 (2yr up almost 7bps). 01:13 PM MBS down nearly 3/8ths and 10yr up 5.4bps at 4.724 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08282026 Fri, 28 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT 6a91d9b9260b93beb9adfdff Matthew Graham Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would still be in the 2.4-2.6% range. Those details don't really matter for today, however. What matters is that the market took away a hawkish message from Warsh and the bond market reacted immediately. Mortgage rates were fairly flat before that, but the average lender increased mortgage rates in response to the bond market movement seen after Warsh's speech.   The net effect was a move up to 6.81% for the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate--the highest in just over 3 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full