http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04172026 Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:29:53 GMT 69e2a694a6791958c58c5eb2 Matthew Graham AM Gains Mostly Stick Around Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related headlines that prompted a sharp rally in bonds). The rest of the day was spent drifting mostly sideways. Stocks continued their surge to new all-time highs. Oil prices fell in concert with the bond rally, briefly dipping below $80/bbl.  Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM Modest overnight gains and then more buying on war headlines. MBS up over a quarter point and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.262 01:03 PM MBS up 13 ticks (.41) and 10yr down 8bps at 4.237 04:26 PM little changed as the close approaches. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 7.2bps at 4.244 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04172026 Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:06:00 GMT 69e294ce4a73c0343647cff6 Matthew Graham Today was a victory for mortgage rates, but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end result is the lowest average 30yr fixed rate in just over a month.  The other news isn't bad, per se, but it is a bit confusing.  As we often discuss, mortgage rates are based on bonds because mortgages "turn into" bonds in order to be traded on the secondary market. You don't need to understand that process in detail to accept that it's true.  Case in point, here's a chart* that overlays our average 30yr fixed rate and the most prevalent mortgage-backed security (a bond comprised of a pool of multiple mortgages). Zooming in on Friday, we see bonds breaking lower at a faster pace than mortgage rates. This is actually very normal behavior for mortgage rates--especially when they're falling into the lowest territory of the past few weeks. If the bond market gains are maintained next week, rates should increasingly be willing to close the gap. Conversely, if bonds bounce in the other direction, rates likely will as well, but they'll have some cushion and may not need to bounce as quickly. * in both of today's charts, the right axis shows mortgage-backed securities PRICES. In the bond market, price varies inversely with yield (i.e. higher prices = lower rates). As such, the right axis is inverted (higher values at the bottom) in order to highlight the correlation with rates on the left axis.  Otherwise, the chart would look like a Rorschach test and it would be impossible to detect these subtle changes.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/04172026-builder-confidence-nahb-hmi Fri, 17 Apr 2026 18:17:00 GMT 69e27a20a576d18cb3bd9be9 Matthew Graham Builder confidence fell sharply in April as rising costs and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment heading into the spring buying season. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped four points to 34 , its lowest level since September 2025. The decline marks a notable setback after modest gains in recent months, with sentiment remaining firmly below the breakeven level of 50 that separates positive from negative market conditions. All three major components of the index moved lower. The gauge of current sales conditions fell four points to 37 , while the index measuring future sales expectations dropped seven points to 42 . The component tracking prospective buyer traffic declined three points to 22 , reflecting continued softness in demand. “Builder sentiment has fallen back in spring as buyers face ongoing elevated interest rates and growing economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. He added that geopolitical risks and rising energy costs have further dampened confidence and slowed expected momentum in the housing market. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointed to increasing pressure from higher fuel prices, noting that a majority of builders are seeing rising material costs as a result. He also highlighted that uncertainty around input costs is making it more difficult for builders to price homes, adding another layer of strain on the market. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/04172026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 17 Apr 2026 18:13:00 GMT 69e278eaa576d18cb3bd9be6 Matthew Graham Mortgage applications ticked higher last week, reversing recent declines as easing rates provided a modest boost to activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.8% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 10. Refinance activity led the gain, with the Refinance Index rising 5% from the previous week and now sitting 15% above year-ago levels. The increase follows a pullback in rates, which helped restore some borrower incentive after several weeks of weakening demand. Purchase activity remained soft, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipping 1% week over week. On an annual basis, purchase applications are down 3% , marking a second consecutive week of year-over-year declines as buyer hesitation persists. MBA’s Joel Kan said, " This dip in rates helped to support an increase in conventional refinance applications, which had declined for five consecutive weeks. Purchase activity remained subdued as potential homebuyers remained hesitant given the current economic uncertainty, which kept purchase applications below last year’s level for the second consecutive week..." Application composition shifted toward refinancing, with refinance share increasing to 45.5% from 44.3% the prior week. ARM share decreased slightly to 8.4% . FHA share fell to 18.2% , while VA share declined to 15.7% and USDA share held steady at 0.5% . Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/04172026-existing-home-sales-nar-inventory-prices-appr Fri, 17 Apr 2026 17:49:00 GMT 69e27367a576d18cb3bd9be4 Matthew Graham Existing-home sales pulled back in March, reversing February’s modest gains as affordability pressures and rising mortgage rates continued to weigh on buyer activity. Sales fell 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million , slipping 1.0% below year-ago levels. “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, pointing to weaker consumer confidence and softer job growth as ongoing headwinds. Inventory improved slightly, but concerns about demand persist. Total housing inventory rose to 1.36 million units , up 3.0% from February and 2.3% higher than a year ago, representing a 4.1-month supply of homes. “Inventory remains a major constraint on the market,” Yun said, noting that an additional 300,000 to 500,000 listings would help normalize conditions and ease pressure on buyers. Limited supply continues to support price growth. The median existing-home price climbed to $408,800 , up 1.4% year-over-year and marking the 33rd consecutive month of annual increases. Affordability showed mixed signals. The Housing Affordability Index dipped to 113.7 in March from 117.5 in February but remains above year-ago levels, with improvements recorded across all regions. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, March 2026) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-04172026 Fri, 17 Apr 2026 15:10:56 GMT 69e229877d59462d26c234d4 Rob Chrisman The MBA's National Advocacy Conference in DC wrapped up this week, and any time you have a gaggle of mortgage personnel in one place, talk in the hallways inevitably turned to current market conditions. For example, servicing rights have increased in value, and MSR trading multiples are in the mid 5x range for certain cohorts (markedly higher than the 4x1 value where it was for years), depending on asset mix, recapture assumptions, and servicing execution. Servicing portfolios are being bought and sold... everyone can afford servicing wants the inside track in retaining the borrowers backing that servicing. But back to the conference… The MBA has remained focused on policy wins over the past year and is making progress on many more goals, said MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit, CMB. The Senate’s 21st Century ROAD to Housing Package is a step in the right direction, but issues, include a drafting error related to FHA multifamily loan limits, a single-family housing investor ban, costly FHA disclosure changes, and a proposal to divert funds from the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund to support foreclosure counseling for FHA, VA and USDA loans could be problems. And, of course, everyone is pushing for the modernization of credit scoring and reporting as well and word from the FHFA about it. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are Sponsored by Truework. Replace costly, error-prone verification waterfalls with a single, fully automated VOIE solution that delivers faster, more accurate, GSE-ready reports. So, your team can close more loans with less effort and lower cost. Today’s has an interview with Verisk’s Kingsley Greenland on how insurance companies are using climate modeling to improve their granularity of pricing, though ambiguity still exists.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04172026 Fri, 17 Apr 2026 13:20:30 GMT 69e241cca6791958c58b983a Matthew Graham Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%.  Less than an hour later, yields fell to 4.23 and MBS rose over 3/8ths of a point on a trio of headlines. The first was a detail from a proposed plan to end the war (involving unfreezing Iranian assets in exchange for Uranium). The second was a notification about negotiations in Islamabad this Sunday which trump might personally attend. The third was the biggest market mover and involved Iran's Foreign Minister announcing a reopening of Hormuz for the remainder of the ceasefire. It's unclear how that information interacts with the U.S. blockade, but the market doesn't seem to be asking that question. Despite the sharp gains, today's bond market movement still fits in the scope of the broader downtrend since late March. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04162026 Thu, 16 Apr 2026 20:26:46 GMT 69e15514a6791958c589f729 Matthew Graham Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start This morning, more than halfway through the international trading day, bonds were on track for the narrowest trading range since February 24th. The low volatility didn't last. Sellers surfaced in response to several war-related headlines. Bond yields followed oil prices higher from 9am through 1pm ET.  That said, it was still a fairly light day of movement in bonds with MBS only losing about an eighth of a point depending on when you look and 10yr yields up 3bps at 4.31+ in the final hour of trading.  Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Apr)/04 1818.0K vs 1810K f'cast, 1794K prev Jobless Claims (Apr)/11 207.0K vs 215K f'cast, 219K prev Philly Fed Business Index (Apr) 26.7 vs 10 f'cast, 18.1 prev Philly Fed Prices Paid (Apr) 59.30 vs -- f'cast, 44.70 prev Market Movement Recap 08:30 AM Giving up overnight gains before data and no change since. MBS unchanged and 10yr down half a bp at 4.279 (up from lows of 4.265). 10:04 AM 10yr yields moved up 1bp back to unchanged levels of 4.281 and MBS are now down 1 tick (.03) 01:16 PM MBS down an eighth. Lows of the day. 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.315. Highs of the day. 03:43 PM Flat afternoon.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.308 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04162026 Thu, 16 Apr 2026 19:52:00 GMT 69e13ec999213054f74f136a Matthew Graham On average, today's top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday's. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue waiting for bigger developments in the Iran war. At the moment, the market is in a sort of limbo as time remains on the 2-week ceasefire. In the meantime, there's a multitude of lower consequence war-related headlines on any given day. These have caused a bit of back and forth volatility in bonds, but not enough directional movement to nudge rates very far in either direction since Tuesday.   Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-04162026 Thu, 16 Apr 2026 15:22:23 GMT 69e0d824fe723587f548b102 Rob Chrisman The U.S. Census Bureau released a downloadable file containing estimates of the nation’s resident population by single year of age and sex as of July 1, 2025. Nationwide lenders are always analyzing branch locations and market share. America’s post-pandemic relocation surge is losing momentum, with interstate migration falling to a decade low as once-booming Sun Belt markets like Texas and Florida face declining inflows amid sharply reduced affordability. The motivations behind moving are shifting away from jobs and cost savings toward proximity to family, signaling a more cautious and less opportunistic consumer mindset. New migration patterns are emerging: more affordable Midwest states are regaining appeal, Nevada is surging due to its relative value compared to California, and smaller or less obvious destinations like Vermont and New Hampshire are attracting highly educated, homebuying newcomers seeking stability and lifestyle. Gen Z has become the most mobile generation, driving moves based on flexibility and opportunity. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are Sponsored by Truework. Replace costly, error-prone verification waterfalls with a single, fully automated VOIE solution that delivers faster, more accurate, GSE-ready reports. So, your team can close more loans with less effort and lower cost. Today’s has an interview with Berger Singerman's Geoffrey Lottenberg on navigating the legal implications of AI in mortgage and lending processes.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full