Ahead of the Curve

Stock Market Signals – May 25: Wall Street's Record Highs vs. The Hormuz Energy Trap

2026-05-25T10:17:47.004-07:00

Stock Market Signals – May 25: Wall Street's Record Highs vs. The Hormuz Energy Trap

Market Overview & Macro Landscape

Wall Street enters a holiday-shortened week following the Memorial Day recess, an environment that typically compresses trading volumes early on. Mainstream markets carry strong upward momentum, with the S&P 500 booking its eighth consecutive week of gains and the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting fresh record highs.

However, a stark macro divergence is developing under the hood. While equity markets celebrate blockbuster corporate earnings, main-street sentiment is flashing generational warning signs. Escalating geopolitical constraints in the Middle East—specifically around the closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz—are actively feeding supply-side inflation fears, keeping commodity markets tight and forcing sovereign debt yields to remain elevated. The key question for this secular cycle is whether corporate cash flow can continue to outrun a sticky cost-of-capital environment.

Last Week’s Global Macro Performance Summary

The following table summarizes actual performance data from the week ending May 22, 2026:

Global Index / Macro Indicator	Closing Level (May 22, 2026)	Primary Macro Sentiment Driver
Dow Jones Industrial Average [1]	50,579.70	Outperformed broad markets, hitting all-time highs on value rotation and robust industrial earnings.
S&P 500 [1]	7,473.47	Secured an eighth straight winning week, supported by steady secular growth flows.
Nasdaq Composite [2]	26,343.97	Advanced modestly (+0.2% on Friday); core tech insulation offset broader sector valuation exhaustion.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield [3]	4.56%	Finished elevated as long-term sticky inflation concerns re-emerged despite minor yield curve flattening.
US Dollar Index (DXY) [4]	99.33	Edged up near 99.3, balancing safe-haven bids and manufacturing PMI strength against Fed pause expectations.
Brent Crude Oil [5]	~$105.00 / bbl	Elevated as investors weigh potential ceasefire drafts against a massive structural deficit caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
WTI Crude Oil [6]	~$97.60 / bbl	Firmly anchored near multi-month highs on persistent supply shocks and low inventory levels.

Core Macro Themes to Watch

The Consumer Sentiment Crisis: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged to 44.8 in its final May reading (down from 49.8 in April), marking its worst historic print since the survey launched in 1952 [7]. Soaring gasoline prices are eroding personal finances, pushing year-ahead inflation expectations up to 4.8% and long-run expectations to 3.9% [8]. This mounting consumer anxiety presents a sharp contrast to Wall Street's optimism.
Energy Bottlenecks & Supply Inflation: Barclays maintained its 2026 average Brent crude forecast at $100/bbl but warned that risks skew heavily to the upside [5]. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 14 million barrels per day (14% of global supply), leading to a projected 6–8 million bpd inventory deficit that threatens to keep inflation sticky [5].
Sovereign Debt Yield Pressures: With the 10-year yield holding at 4.56% and the 2-year yield closing at 4.13% [3], capital allocation models face tight constraints. High borrowing costs will pressure highly leveraged corporations if macroeconomic growth metrics cool down later in the year.

Major US Equity Benchmarks Outlook

S&P 500 Index

Trend: Structurally Strong Bullish
Macro Dynamics: Powered heavily by institutional equity inflows and corporate cash generation. However, because participation in the rally remains relatively narrow, the benchmark is vulnerable to sudden capital shifts if macro inflation indices print hot.
Macro Pivot Zones: Support at 7,400 | Resistance at 7,550

Nasdaq Composite

Trend: Moderating Bullish
Macro Dynamics: This tech-heavy index remains highly sensitive to long-term sovereign debt yields. While large-scale tech infrastructure spending acts as a structural buffer, a continued yield spike above 4.60% will test premium valuation multiples.
Macro Pivot Zones: Support at 26,100 | Resistance at 26,600

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Trend: Leading Bullish
Macro Dynamics: Benefiting from a clear rotation out of high-multiple growth sectors into high-quality cyclicals and blue-chip industrials. Capital is increasingly favoring tangible current cash flows over speculative terminal growth.
Macro Pivot Zones: Support at 50,100 | Resistance at 51,100

Strategic Insights for Global Traders

Complacency Warning: Equity markets are currently pricing in a near-flawless macroeconomic outlook. Given the volatile energy landscape, severe historic lows in consumer sentiment, and mounting cross-asset yield pressures, building defensive structural hedges or locking in profits on extended positions remains highly prudent.

Weekly Asset Class Performance:

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	7474, 1.04%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	23719, 0.32%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	4113, -0.54%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	4556, -0.12%	Neutral	Neutral
WTIC Crude	96.60, -7.21%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	6.38, 0.97%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	393, -1.66%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	2991, -5.08%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1603, -0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	159.20, 0.22%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	20767, 2.66%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	108.37, 0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	96.25, 0.53%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.57%, -0.81%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	229, -34.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	16.70, -9.93%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	137	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	7336, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6988, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6808, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	23870, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	23691, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	24996, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	32.19	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.44	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.91, -5.22%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	95.70, -0.42%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	6
Bearish Indications	7	8
Outlook	Bullish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P500 rose, and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Middle East war, Eurozone – CPI, Japan - CPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets rose amid falling interest rates. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index fell. The dollar was unchanged. Most commodities fell. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) fell. The “Sell in May and Go Away” trade is about to play out.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 7485 (up) and 7460 (down) on the S&P 500 and 23800 (up) and 23650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently in a correction). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

About the Author

Dr. Rajveer S. Rawlin holds a PhD and an MBA in Finance and serves as an Academician & Consultant at CHRIST University. He has tracked capital markets in both the US and India since 1993, specializing in macroeconomic cycles, banking profitability metrics, and econometric investment analysis.

Footnotes & References

[1]: Financial Times, S&P 500 & Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical Closing Prices (May 22, 2026); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), DJIA Index Series.

[2]: Washington Post, How Major US Stock Indexes Fared Friday (May 22, 2026); Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC).

[3]: Advisor Perspectives / dshort, Treasury Yields Snapshot (May 22, 2026).

[4]: StreetStats Finance, Foreign Exchange Rates - DXY, EUR/USD, CNY/USD (May 22, 2026); VT Markets Market Update.

[5]: Reuters / Barclays Global Research Note, Barclays keeps $100 Brent oil forecast for 2026 but risks skew higher (May 22, 2026).

[6]: VT Markets Commodity Update, WTI and Gold Market Overview (May 22, 2026).

[7]: Crypto Briefing / Survey Director Joanne Hsu, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final May Readings (May 23, 2026).

[8]: Quartz Economy Report, Consumer Sentiment Sinks to an All-Time Low as Inflation Fears Deepen (May 22, 2026).

Weekly Outlook: Macro Catalysts, Currency Squeezes, and the S&P 500 Strategy (May 18–22, 2026)

2026-05-18T09:41:25.429-07:00

By Dr. Rajveer S. Rawlin | Published: May 18, 2026 | Category: Market Outlook

The Week Ahead at a Glance: Global markets are entering a high-stakes trading week under clear macro pressure. The NIFTY 50 starts the week vulnerable at 23,643.50, while Wall Street’s momentum has hit a major structural wall. Driven by a massive 4.3 million barrel draw in US inventories and escalating maritime friction, WTI Crude futures enter Monday morning sitting at $105.42/barrel—dragging the Indian Rupee to record lows near 95.94. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 must defend its fresh correction levels at 7,408.50 as the US 10-Year Treasury yield threatens growth multiples at 4.59%.

1. Forex Outlook: The Strategic Battlelines for USD/INR

Heading into this week, the fundamental narrative has officially transitioned from a simple interest rate differential into an energy-driven currency squeeze.

The 96 Psychological Ceiling: The Rupee enters the week highly extended after hitting an all-time intraday low of 96.14 before closing Friday at 95.94 [1]. Intense dollar demand from domestic oil marketing companies (OMCs) to cover $105+ WTI crude will put immense pressure on the RBI's foreign exchange reserves this week [1].
Capital Flight Risks: According to tracking data from DailyFX, high-beta emerging market currencies face defensive capital flight. With the Dollar Index (DXY) strong at 99.28, persistent FII outflows from Indian equities remain a key systemic risk for the upcoming settlement sessions. Watch for heavy RBI intervention if the 96.20 level is challenged early Monday.

2. Wall Street Outlook: Can the S&P 500 Defend 7,400?

After briefly touching a historic milestone of 7,501.24 on Thursday, the S&P 500 index suffered a sharp 1.24% correction on Friday, closing at 7,408.50 [2]. This slide sets a cautious tone for global markets on Monday morning.

S&P 500 Trading Grid: Key Levels for the Week

7,500 +----------------------------------* (Major Overhead Resistance)

| \

7,450 | \

| \

7,400 +------------------------------------* (Current Spot: 7,408.50)

| [Primary Target Support Zone: 7,300 - 7,350]

Critical Triggers for Wall Street This Week:

The Valuation Reality Check: High-flying mega-cap tech and AI favorites face a crucial survival test this week. Nvidia enters Monday at $225.32 (down 4.42% Friday) and Tesla sits at $422.24 (down 4.75%). Institutional investors are growing highly sensitive to stretched multiples in a restrictive macro environment.
The Yield Threat: The US 10-Year Treasury yield is elevated at 4.59%, while the 30-year yield has crossed the 5% psychological threshold. When risk-free yields sit this high, equity risk premiums face mathematical compression, triggering automated institutional liquidations.
Wednesday's FOMC Catalyst: The market will closely scan the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday for any clues regarding an acceleration in quantitative tightening (QT).

3. Sector Strategy: Tracking the Defensive Rotation

When macro conditions tighten, institutional capital quietly rotates out of high-beta growth and shifts toward defensive frameworks. Expect this structural trend to dominate early-week volume.

Structural Observations:

Defensive Clustering: On the domestic front, defensive pockets are holding the line with noticeable resilience. NIFTY Pharma offers the strongest defensive alpha (Dr. Reddy’s up 3.04%, Biocon surging 13%), while selective IT heavyweights like Infosys managed a 2.19% gain on safety buying [3].
Cyclical Capitulation: High-beta, interest-rate-sensitive sectors enter the week weak, with Metal and Realty indexes seeing heavy profit-booking (Lodha down 11%, Prestige down 10.9%).
The Macro Verdict: This clear rotation away from cyclical growth into defensive value confirms that global asset managers are actively hedging against an extended "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment.

4. Weekly Macro & Technical Watchlist (May 18–22, 2026)

By pairing econometric valuation frameworks with real-time price action, here are the definitive structural boundaries and risk parameters for the upcoming trading week:

Asset / Index	Spot Level	Tactical Stance	Key Support Levels	Key Resistance Levels	Macro Catalyst & Risk Metrics
S&P 500	7,408.50 [2]	Tactical Underweight	7,300 / 7,220	7,480 / 7,500	Mega-cap AI multiples are facing pressure from rising risk-free rates. Watch Wednesday's FOMC minutes.
NIFTY 50	23,643.50 [3]	Neutral / Cautious	23,550 / 23,250	23,850 / 24,000	Domestically, the government's 3%+ petrol/diesel price hike will pressure corporate margins. Strong DII cash inflows remain the primary cushion.
USD/INR	95.94 [1]	Bullish Momentum	95.60 / 95.20	96.20 / 96.50	Driven by a widening trade deficit and global energy disruptions. Expect active RBI defense at the 96.20 ceiling.
Crude Oil (WTI)	$105.42 [4]	Strongly Bullish	$101.50 / $100.00	$106.50 / $110.00	Front-month futures successfully held the $100 floor. Accelerated EIA inventory drawdowns suggest supply deficits will persist through Q3.

Dr. Rajveer’s Macro Note: As global bond yields challenge long-term trendlines, passive, index-chasing strategies are facing immense headwinds. Moving into this week, capital preservation becomes an active job. Focus allocations on high CAMEL-rated commercial banking structures showing strong credit quality and resilient net interest margins (NIM) capable of withstanding a prolonged high-rate environment.

Weekly Asset Class Performance:

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	7409, 0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	23644, -2.20%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4135, -1.07%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	4562, -3.57%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	101.02, 5.87%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	6.30, -0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
CRB Index	399, 2.53%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	3151, 5.81%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1626, -1.20%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	158.77, 1.21%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	20134, -0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	107.86, -1.23%	Bearish	Bearish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	95.72, -0.83%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.60%, 5.29%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	347, -26.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	18.43, 7.21%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	146	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	7260, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6921, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6780, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	24047, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	23799, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25069, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	31.90	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.59	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	18.79, 11.58%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	95.97, 1.62%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	4
Bearish Indications	12	14
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P500 was unchanged, and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Middle East war, UK – CPI, Eurozone – CPI, Japan - GDP

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The past week saw US equity markets unchanged. Most emerging markets fell amid rising interest rates. Transports were unchanged. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar rose. Most commodities fell except oil. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) rose. The “Sell in May and Go Away” trade is about to play out.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 7420 (up) and 7395 (down) on the S&P 500 and 23750 (up) and 23550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently in a correction). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

About the Author

Footnotes & References

[1] Exchange Rate Data: Sourced via Interbank FX Trading Feeds and The Hindu Business Registry, "Rupee falls 30 paise to 95.94 against U.S. dollar in market trade," reporting spot settle at 95.94 and historic intraday testing at 96.14 on May 15, 2026.
[2] Wall Street Benchmarks: Sourced via Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed, Index Series SP500, marking the official weekend market close of 7,408.50 following structural profit-taking off the May 14 high of 7,501.24.
[3] Domestic Index Logs: Sourced from National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) Corporate Action & Historical Records for Friday close, logging NIFTY 50 spot at 23,643.50 (-0.19%) alongside selective institutional inflow tracking (+₹684 Cr DII net cash).
[4] Commodities Pricing Matrix: Compiled from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) front-month Light Sweet Crude (WTI) Futures execution ledgers, confirming Friday settlement at $105.42/barrel (+4.20%).

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 11

2026-05-11T08:28:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	7399, 2.33%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	24176, 0.74%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	4180, 1.65%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	4731, 1.86%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	95.42, -6.40%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	6.30, 5.21%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	389, -1.01%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	2978, 10.87%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1786, 0.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	156.67, -0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	20199, -1.94%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	109.20, 0.55%	Bullish	Bullish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	96.52, 0.12%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.36%, -0.32%	Neutral	Neutral
NYSE Summation Index	471, 1.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	17.19, 1.18%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	138	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	7154, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6863, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6753, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	24155, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	23994, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	25069, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	31.83	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.00	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	16.84, -8.78%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	94.44, -0.49%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	11	11
Bearish Indications	6	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P500 and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Middle East war, CPI, PPI, UK – GDP

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping and are about to collapse. We got the oversold bounce to new highs and will sell off soon amid glaring divergences in transports, high yield, market breadth, volatility, etc. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term. The “Sell in May and Go Away” trade is about to play out.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets were up amid stable interest rates. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar fell. Commodities fell. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

A currency crisis should resume at any moment and push risky assets to new lows. Deflation is in the air, and bonds are telegraphing just that despite intermittent spikes in yields. It feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is closely tracking the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, suggesting a panic low is right around the corner in the coming months. (My views do not matter; kindly pay attention to the levels.) A dollar rally is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is at new highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in, and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon as this AI bubble deflates. Risky assets are likely to continue breaking to the downside as earnings growth falters. The Fed is now easing, anticipating a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The Dollar is rebounding from major lows, while commodities and bond yields are flashing significant warning signs.

Global yield curves are steepening after inverting a third time in the last 2 years, reflecting the arrival of a significant economic slowdown. This is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets are likely to underperform in the future under such conditions.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 7410 (up) and 7385 (down) on the S&P 500 and 24250 (up) and 24100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning May 04

2026-05-04T10:55:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	7230, 0.91%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	23998, 0.42%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	4112, 0.79%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	4661, -1.68%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	101.94, 7.99%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	6.01, -1.22%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	393, 3.78%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2686, 0.79%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1721, 0.14%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	157.06, -1.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	20598, -1.41%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	108.60, -0.91%	Bearish	Bearish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	96.40, -0.51%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.38%, 1.58%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	464, 7.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	16.99, -9.19%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	141	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	7009, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6822, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6729, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	23879, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	24138, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25099, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	31.08	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.94	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	18.46, -6.35%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	94.91, 0.69%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	7
Bearish Indications	10	10
Outlook	Neutral	Bearish
Observation	The S&P, and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are tilting bearish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Middle East war, Employment data

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are tilting bearish for the week. Markets are topping and are about to collapse. We got the oversold bounce to new highs and will sell off soon amid glaring divergences. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets were up amid rising interest rates. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) fell.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 7245 (up) and 7215 (down) on the S&P 500 and 24100 (up) and 23900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 27

2026-04-27T07:55:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	7165, 0.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	23898, -1.87%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4080, 0.70%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	4741, -2.84%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	94.40, 13.15%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.98, -2.02%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	379, 4.49%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2665, 3.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1722, -0.14%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	159.38, 0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	20892, -6.82%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	109.60, -0.40%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	96.89, -0.20%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.31%, 1.56%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	436, 64.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	18.71, 7.04%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	139	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6834, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6789, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6706, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	23635, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	24284, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25127, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	30.78	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.85	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.71, 14.57%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	94.25, 1.78%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	9	6
Bearish Indications	7	10
Outlook	Bullish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P rose, and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Middle East war, FOMC rate decision, UK – BOE rate decision, Eurozone – ECB rate decision, Japan – BOJ rate decision

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P rose, and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Markets are topping and are about to collapse. We got the oversold bounce to new highs and will sell off soon. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. Transports are flashing a correction. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets were unchanged amid rising interest rates. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 7180 (up) and 7150 (down) on the S&P 500 and 24000 (up) and 23800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 20

2026-04-20T08:23:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	7126, 4.54%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	24354, 1.26%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	4051, 1.64%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	4880, 1.93%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	82.59, -14.48%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	6.12, 3.88%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	363, -1.77%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	2567, 16.63%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1764, 0.35%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	158.64, -0.38%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	22422, 10.24%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.04, 0.77%	Bullish	Bullish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.08, 0.87%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.24%, -1.69%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	267, 523.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	17.48, -9.10%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	142	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6691, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6769, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6684, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	23365, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	24414, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25155, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	30.62	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.38	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	17.21, -8.73%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	92.60, -0.52%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	14	12
Bearish Indications	5	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Middle East war, UK – Employment data, CPI, China – PBoC rate decision

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping and are about to collapse. We got the oversold bounce to new highs and will sell off soon. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets rose as interest rates fell. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar fell. Commodities fell. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) cooled off.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 7140 (up) and 7115 (down) on the S&P 500 and 24450 (up) and 24250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 13

2026-04-13T09:21:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6817, 3.56%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	24051, 5.89%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3986, 2.74%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	4787, 2.30%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	96.57, -13.42%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	5.89, 5.42%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	369, -3.08%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	2201, 6.53%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1720, 1.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	159.30, -0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	20339, 6.55%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	109.20, 0.07%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	96.24, 0.54%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.32%, -0.67%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	-63, 78.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	19.23, -19.44%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	144	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6602, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6784, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6645, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	23237, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	24507, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25170, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	29.26	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.13	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	18.85, -26.14%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	93.09, 0.41%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	15	11
Bearish Indications	4	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are collapsing. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	US – Middle East war, PPI, UK – GDP, Eurozone - CPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets have topped and are about to collapse. We got the oversold bounce and will sell off soon. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is fearful. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The S&P 500 is correcting from recent highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in, and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon as this AI bubble deflates. Risky assets are likely to continue breaking to the downside as earnings growth falters. The Fed is now easing, anticipating a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The Dollar is rebounding from major lows, while commodities and bond yields are flashing significant warning signs.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6830 (up) and 6805 (down) on the S&P 500 and 24150 (up) and 23950 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 06

2026-04-06T11:03:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6583, 3.36%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	22713, -0.47%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3880, -0.86%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	4703, 4.31%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	112.06, 12.46%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.68, 3.90%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	381, 3.28%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2066, 1.72%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1517, 0.23%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	159.59, -0.41%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	19089, 5.03%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	109.12, 1.39%	Bullish	Bullish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	95.72, 1.12%	Bullish	Bullish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.35%, -2.14%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	-292, -17.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	23.87, -23.12%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	147	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Extreme Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6608, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6784, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6645, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	23440, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	24675, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25203, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	28.21	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	19.96	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	25.52, -4.79%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	92.71, -2.19%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	12
Bearish Indications	7	5
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P rose, and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are collapsing. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	India – RBI rate decision, US – Middle East war, CPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P rose, and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets have topped and are about to collapse. We are oversold, and the bounce may continue following positive divergences in transports and bond ETFs. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is fearful. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets rose as interest rates fell. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and sentiment is fearful. Volatility (S&P 500) cooled off.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6595 (up) and 6570 (down) on the S&P 500 and 22800 (up) and 22650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 30

2026-03-30T10:10:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6369, -2.12%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	22820, -1.28%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3914, -1.10%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	4509, -2.19%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	99.64, 1.34%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.50, 2.23%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	369, 0.49%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	2031, -1.22%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1510, -0.53%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	160.32, 0.68%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	18175, 1.82%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	107.62, -0.21%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	94.66, -0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.44%, 1.09%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	-275, -131.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	31.05, 15.94%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	139	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Extreme Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6676, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6814, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6635, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	23831, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	24862, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25241, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	27.25	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	19.97	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	26.80, 17.49%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	94.78, 1.16%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	4
Bearish Indications	12	13
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are collapsing. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – GDP, Eurozone – CPI, US – Middle East war

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets have topped and are about to collapse. We are oversold and may get a bounce soon. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is fearful. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets fell as interest rates rose. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index fell. The dollar rose. Commodities were unchanged. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and sentiment is fearful. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6380 (up) and 6355 (down) on the S&P 500 and 22900 (up) and 22750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 23

2026-03-23T10:04:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6507, -1.90%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	23115, -0.16%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	3957, -3.38%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	4610, -8.93%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	98.32, -0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Copper	5.38, -6.64%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	367, 0.36%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	2056, 1.38%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1571, 1.36%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	159.23, -0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	17849, 0.66%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	107.85, -0.30%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	94.95, -0.31%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.39%, 2.50%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	-119, -172.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	26.78, -1.51%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	139	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Extreme Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6771, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6858, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6622, Below	Bearish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	24363, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25101, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25276, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	27.89	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.23	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	22.81, 0.74%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	93.69, 1.24%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	3
Bearish Indications	10	11
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P fell, and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are collapsing. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – CPI, US – Middle East war

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P fell, and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets have topped and are about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is fearful. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets fell as interest rates rose. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar rose. Commodities were unchanged. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and sentiment is fearful. Volatility (S&P 500) cooled off.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6520 (up) and 6495 (down) on the S&P 500 and 23200 (up) and 23050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 16

2026-03-16T10:32:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6632, -1.60%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	23151, -5.31%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4096, -1.88%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	5062, -1.70%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	98.71, 8.59%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.76, -0.86%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	366, 13.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2028, 0.90%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1416, -1.74%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	159.73, 1.22%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	17732, -3.95%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	108.17, -1.81%	Bearish	Bearish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	95.25, -0.69%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.29%, 3.70%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	165, -69.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	27.19, -7.80%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	138	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Extreme Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6830, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6884, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6604, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	24926, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25384, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25312, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	28.50	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	20.26	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	22.65, 13.91%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	92.54, 0.66%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	5
Bearish Indications	13	15
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are collapsing. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – BOE rate decision, Eurozone – CPI, ECB rate decision, US – PPI, FOMC rate decision, China – PBOC rate decision

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is fearful. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance on any bounces. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets fell as interest rates rose. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar rose. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and sentiment is fearful. Volatility (S&P 500) cooled off.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6645 (up) and 6620 (down) on the S&P 500 and 23250 (up) and 23050 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (currently correcting). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 09

2026-03-09T10:22:00.000-07:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6740, -2.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	24451, -2.89%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4124, -0.93%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	5159, -1.70%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	90.90, 35.63%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.81, -4.17%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	352, 12.62%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2010, -6.07%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1618, -1.66%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	157.80, 1.11%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	18461, -6.24%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.16, -1.36%	Bearish	Bearish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	95.91, -1.38%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.13%, 4.29%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	532, -22.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	29.49, 48.49%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	152	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6877, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6903, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6583, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	25442, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25610, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25337, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	28.95	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.39	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.88, 45.08%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	91.93, 0.94%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	4
Bearish Indications	16	16
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – GDP, US – CPI, GDP

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in, forexfactory.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is fearful. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the ongoing Middle East war. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Divergences galore. This has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets fell as interest rates rose. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index fell. The dollar rose. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and sentiment is fearful. Volatility (S&P 500) surged higher.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6750 (up) and 6730 (down) on the S&P 500 and 24550 (up) and 24350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 02

2026-03-02T08:33:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6879, -0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	25179, -1.54%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4163, 1.98%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	5248, 3.29%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	67.02, 0.95%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	6.06, 2.71%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	313, 0.53%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2140, 4.75%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1814, 0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	156.06, 0.64%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	19689, -0.77%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	111.68, 0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.25, -0.38%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	3.96%, -3.01%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	686, -2.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	19.86, 4.03%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	147	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6896, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6900, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6560, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	25626, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25714, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25341, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	29.55	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.03	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	13.70, -4.60%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	91.08, 0.38%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	9
Bearish Indications	7	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – CPI, US – Employment data

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is fearful. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected from its recent highs and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets were up as interest fell. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and sentiment is fearful. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6925 (up) and 6895 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25250 (up) and 25100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 23

2026-02-23T09:07:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6910, 1.07%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	25571, 0.39%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	4082, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	5081, 0.83%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	66.39, 5.78%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.90, 2.11%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	311, 1.46%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2043, -1.92%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1782, -0.73%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	155.07, 1.55%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	19841, 2.57%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	111.59, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.62, 0.14%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.09%, 0.76%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	697, 7.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	19.09, -7.33%	Bullish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	146	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6913, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6896, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6530, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	25576, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25760, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25314, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S&P 500 P/E	29.70	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.38	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	14.36, 8.05%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	90.73, 0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	8
Bearish Indications	6	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – CPI, German GDP, US – PPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is neutral. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected from its recent highs and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets were up even as interest rates rose. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index fell. The dollar rose. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and sentiment is fearful. Volatility (S&P 500) cooled off.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6925 (up) and 6895 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25650 (up) and 25500 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 16

2026-02-16T10:33:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6836, -1.39%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	25471, -0.87%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4082, 0.41%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	5046, 1.47%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	62.75, -0.74%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	5.80, -1.60%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	307, -0.96%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	2083, 8.32%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1869, 0.36%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	152.70, -2.91%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	19343, -2.76%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	111.59, 0.93%	Bullish	Bullish
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.48, 0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.06%, -3.95%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	650, 13.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	20.60, 15.99%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	139	Neutral	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Fear	Bullish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6914, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6895, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6505, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	25512, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25795, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25282, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S&P 500 P/E	29.36	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.24	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	13.29, 11.33%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	90.56, -0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	5
Bearish Indications	10	11
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – CPI, US – GDP, Japan – GDP

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is neutral. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Transports have finally confirmed the high in the industrials, which is bullish in the short term. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected from its recent highs and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets were up as interest rates fell. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities fell. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and sentiment is neutral. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6850 (up) and 6825 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25550 (up) and 25400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 09

2026-02-09T09:12:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6932, -0.10%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	25694, 3.50%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	4066, -1.27%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	4980, 4.95%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	63.55, -2.55%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	5.88, -0.71%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	310, -3.31%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1923, -10.47%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1817, -0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	157.21, 1.58%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	19892, 8.70%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.56, -0.01%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.40, -0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.21%, -0.83%	Bullish	Bullish
NYSE Summation Index	575, -1.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	17.76, 1.83%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	140	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6927, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6886, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6470, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	25497, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	25831, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	25242, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S&P 500 P/E	29.75	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.26	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	11.94, -20.90%	Neutral	Bullish
Dollar/Rupee	90.60, -1.20%	Neutral	Bullish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	10
Bearish Indications	9	6
Outlook	Bearish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P was unchanged, and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – GDP, US – Employment data, CPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P was unchanged, and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is neutral. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Transports have finally confirmed the high in the industrials, which is bullish in the short term. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected from its recent highs and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets unchanged. Most emerging markets were up as interest rates fell. Transports rose significantly higher. The Baltic Dry Index fell. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities fell. Valuations are expensive, market breadth was unchanged, and the sentiment is neutral. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6945 (up) and 6920 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25800 (up) and 25600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 02

2026-02-03T09:04:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6939, 0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	24826, -0.89%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4118, -0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	4745, -5.42%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	65.21, 6.78%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.92, -0.40%	Neutral	Neutral
CRB Index	320, 2.51%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	2148, 21.91%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1850, 0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	154.77, -0.61%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	18300, 0.55%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.57, -0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.82, -0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.24%, 0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
NYSE Summation Index	581, 0.00%	Neutral	Neutral
US Vix	17.44, 8.39%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	144	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6929, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6858, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6429, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	25587, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25851, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25209, Below	Neutral	Bearish
S&P 500 P/E	29.81	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.57	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	15.22, 7.24%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	91.69, 0.02%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	7	4
Bearish Indications	6	8
Outlook	Bullish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – ECB Rate Decision, UK – BOE rate decision, US – Employment data, India – Union budget 2026, RBI rate decision

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Transports have finally confirmed the high in the industrials, which is bullish in the short term. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected from its recent highs and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets rise slightly. Most emerging markets were unchanged even as interest rates remained unchanged. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar was unchanged. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth was unchanged, and the sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6950 (up) and 6925 (down) on the S&P 500 and 24900 (up) and 24750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 26

2026-01-27T09:09:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6916, -0.35%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	25049, -2.51%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4136, 0.83%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	4980, 8.36%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	61.07, 2.74%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.95, 2.00%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	312, 3.37%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1762, 12.44%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1828, 1.97%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	155.72, -1.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	18200, -0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.84, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.87, 0.05%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.24%, 0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
NYSE Summation Index	581, 12.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	16.09, 1.45%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	144	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6914, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6838, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6387, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	25793, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25925, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25129, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S&P 500 P/E	31.23	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.76	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	14.36, 26.27%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	91.68, 1.06%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	11	9
Bearish Indications	5	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – German GDP, US – FOMC rate decision, PPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Transports have finally confirmed the high in the industrials, which is bullish in the short term. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected from its recent highs and is likely to underperform in the near term.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets rose even as interest rates remained unchanged. Transports were unchanged. The Baltic Dry Index rose. The dollar fell. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and the sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6930 (up) and 6905 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25150 (up) and 24950 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 19

2026-01-19T08:09:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6940, -0.38%	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty	25694, 0.04%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	4102, -0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	4595, 2.10%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	59.34, 0.37%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.83, -1.21%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	302, 0.19%	Neutral	Neutral
Baltic Dry Index	1567, -7.17%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1599, -0.34%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	158.12, -0.15%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	18245, 0.33%	Neutral	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.57, -0.06%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.82, 0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.23%, 1.44%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	520, 53.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	15.86, 9.45%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	154	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Greed	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6909, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6840, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6356, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	25991, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25962, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25083, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S&P 500 P/E	31.34	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.40	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	11.37, 4.10%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	90.71, 0.52%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	6	4
Bearish Indications	7	8
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P fell, and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – CPI, UK – CPI, US – GDP, Japan – BOJ rate decision, China - GDP

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P fell, and the Nifty was little changed last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is greedy. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Transports have finally confirmed the high in the industrials, which is bullish in the short term. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty has corrected from its recent highs and will likely underperform in the near future.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets rose even as interest rates rose. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index fell. The dollar rose. Commodities were unchanged. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and the sentiment is greedy. Volatility (S&P 500) rose.

Global yield curves are in the process of steepening after inverting a third time in the last 2 years, reflecting the arrival of a significant economic slowdown. This is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets are likely to underperform in the future under such conditions.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6955 (up) and 6925 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25750 (up) and 25600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 12

2026-01-12T08:13:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6966, 1.57%	Bullish	Bullish
Nifty	25683, -2.45%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	4120, 3.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	4501, 3.96%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	58.94, 2.83%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.90, 3.71%	Bullish	Bullish
CRB Index	303, 1.23%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1688, -10.31%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1638, -0.70%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	157.89, 0.67%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	18185, 3.70%	Bullish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.64, 0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.69, 0.46%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.17%, -0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
NYSE Summation Index	341, 38.00%	Bullish	Neutral
US Vix	14.49, -0.14%	Neutral	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	146	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Extreme Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6874, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6818, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6323, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	26034, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	25963, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	25038, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S&P 500 P/E	31.45	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.36	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	10.93, 15.61%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	90.24, 0.26%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	12	9
Bearish Indications	4	7
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S&P rose, and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	UK – GDP, US – CPI, PPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P rose, and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is neutral. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. Transports have finally confirmed the high in the industrials, which is bullish in the short term. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty is near its recent highs and will likely underperform in the near future.

The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets rose as interest rates fell. Transports rose. The Baltic Dry Index fell. The dollar rose. Commodities rose. Valuations are expensive, market breadth rose, and the sentiment is neutral. Volatility (S&P 500) was unchanged.

A currency crisis should resume at any moment and push risky assets to new lows. Deflation is in the air, and bonds are telegraphing just that despite intermittent spikes in yields. It feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is closely tracking the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low is right ahead in the upcoming months. (My views do not matter; kindly pay attention to the levels.) A dollar rally is a likely catalyst.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6980 (up) and 6955 (down) on the S&P 500 and 25750 (up) and 25600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 05

2026-01-05T08:19:00.000-08:00

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implications for S&P 500	Implications for Nifty*
S&P 500	6859, -1.03%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	26329, 1.10%	Neutral **	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	3969, 0.13%	Neutral	Neutral
Gold	4346, -4.55%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	57.32, 1.02%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	5.72, -2.06%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	298, -0.87%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1882, 0.27%	Neutral	Neutral
Euro	1.1720, -0.44%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	156.84, 0.17%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	17535, -0.63%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	110.16, -0.43%	Neutral	Neutral
High-Yield Bonds (ETF)	97.24, 0.08%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.19%, 1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	247, -13.00%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	14.51, 6.69%	Bearish	Neutral
S&P 500 Skew	142	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Greed	Neutral	Bearish
20 DMA, S&P 500	6857, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S&P 500	6805, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S&P 500	6293, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	26010, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	25953, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	24953, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S&P 500 P/E	30.95	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	22.92	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	9.45, 3.28%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	90.01, 0.24%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S&P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	4	5
Bearish Indications	10	8
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P fell and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – CPI, US – Employment data

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S&P fell and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping and about to collapse. We are transitioning into a deflationary regime, and the risk of a recession has increased significantly. The sentiment is neutral. Carry trade liquidation is about to resume, and the S&P will likely find resistance soon. The macroenvironment was already deteriorating rapidly even before the recent tariff issue. The massive AI bubble is about to burst. The recent massive breakdown in transports and rally into resistance (subsequent non-conformation for a possible third time) is quite ominous. Divergences galore. This, combined with oil's recent free fall, has profound recessionary implications. The Nifty is near its recent highs and will likely underperform in the near future.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets rose even as interest rates rose. Transports fell. The Baltic Dry Index was unchanged. The dollar rose. Commodities fell. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and the sentiment is neutral. Volatility (S&P 500) rebounded.

A currency crisis should resume at any moment and push risky assets to new lows. Deflation is in the air, and bonds are telegraphing just that despite intermittent spikes in yields. It feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is closely tracking the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low is right ahead in the upcoming months. (My views do not matter; kindly pay attention to the levels.) A dollar rally is a likely catalyst.

The critical levels to watch for the week are 6870 (up) and 6845 (down) on the S&P 500 and 26400 (up) and 26250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next major move in these markets. High beta/P/E will get torched again and is a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade (has gone parabolic of late). Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen to gold when this AI bubble bursts. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. I love your thoughts and feedback.