Skyjuiceiswater

How To Improve WiFi Reception

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sun, 17 Aug 2025 03:37:00 +0000

There are many ways one can improve the WiFi reception at home. But before one jumps to do any physical changes to WiFi systems, including changing the existing routers or installing repeaters or mesh, one should try to do a signal check first, especially when one did not have such a problem before.

Why?

There is always a possibility that your WiFi signal at home has been “masked” or “interfered” with by your neighbor’s strong WiFi signal, especially when they have just moved in.

How to check?

One quick way to check if there is any signal interference is to use your mobile phone. In the WiFi settings of the mobile phone, one should be able to find a list of WiFi channels available for connection. Against the list, there is always a WiFi signal gauge (edged red) as shown below.

The above shows that one of the WiFi signals has a full bar, and this signal is likely to have caused interference to one’s WiFi system.

What to do next?

A simple way to resolve this kind of problem is to change one’s WiFi Channel in one’s router settings, and the easy way to change the router settings is to use your mobile phone in the spot or location where one found problems of a weak WiFi signal.

Using any browser to log into one’s router main page, one should click the “Wireless” tab to enter the wireless setup page, as shown below. Then change the channel (edged red) in the photo and click “Apply”. Check if the WiFi bar of the mobile phone shown in the upper right-hand corner has changed for the better. Repeat the process to change to other channels until one can get a maximum or full bar in the WIFI reception..

How to Embed TikTok Video in the blogs and forums?

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Mon, 26 May 2025 02:11:00 +0000

Introduction

Many blog writers or forum users have a problem posting TikTok videos on their blog or forum pages. Many will use the direct method by copying and pasting the web address of the TikTok video, and will often find that it does not work to embed the videos in their article or post. This post intends to offer an alternative way where one can embed TikTok if the normal way recommended does not work in a blog or forum.

How?

1. First, locate the TikTok post you want to embed in the blog or forum pages. For example,

View the following TikTok Video: https://www.tiktok.com/@hspiao1/video/7291544516929096961?q=%E9%9D%92%E5%B1%B1%E6%B5%81%E6%B0%B4&t=1750902059010

One can find the TikTok post ID on from the post URL. For example, 7291544516929096961 is the post ID from the URL https://www.tiktok.com/@hspiao1/video/7291544516929096961?q=%E9%9D%92%E5%B1%B1%E6%B5%81%E6%B0%B4&t=1750902059010

2. Copy and paste the following codes into the blog or forum page

<iframe src="https://www.tiktok.com/player/v1/7519546150341348630" style="border:0px #ffffff none;" name="myiFrame" scrolling="no" frameborder="1" marginheight="0px" marginwidth="0px" height="400px" width="600px" allowfullscreen></iframe>

3. Replace "7519546150341348630" in the iframe code with "7291544516929096961"

One can change the height and width of the iframe code to suit if necessary

Gigabyte MotherBoard Not Detecting GT730 GPU

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Tue, 11 Feb 2025 05:16:00 +0000

09 February 2025

It will be frustrating when one has just built or upgraded the PC with a new motherboard just to find that the motherboard could not detect the dedicated GPU (giving 5 beeps on the speaker) and therefore, could not boot up or post anything on the screen. One could spend hours and hours trying to figure out what could go wrong. This is especially true when one has been using a CPU that did not have integrated graphics and could not boot up using the motherboard onboard Graphics There is just nothing on the computer screen that could help the troubleshooting. If you are lucky enough to use the onboard Graphics to boot up the PC, you might be faced with this warning sign.

Why it is so?

There could be many reasons but if the PC can boot up normally using a more recent GPU such as Geforce GTX950, it is most likely that the GPU in question does not have UEFI VBIOS in them. This GPU might not be compatible with the motherboard which was set to run on UEFI mode and would not work with any older peripherals that do not have UEFI in them.

What is the Work Around?

1) Upgrade the GPU's BIOS

The purpose is to upgrade the Bios of the GPU to include the UEFI function. This is not always recommended. There are plenty of materials on the Net and there is also one free BIOS Tweaker available to flash the Bios.

2) Change or Edit the MotherBoard Bios

It is usually recommended. It should always be the first step to take before trying to find other solutions.

a) For those who can boot up using onboard graphics

1) Power off and remove the dedicated GPU.

2) Power on and boot up to the post screen and enter into the bios by hitting F2 or Del as instructed; the bios screen will show up (using Gigabyte Z590 Pro Ax as an example)

3) Navigate to the Boot Tab and then click or select the CSM support and enable it

4) Click the 'Save and Exit' Tab & select Save & Exit Setup to Exit Bios

5) Restart the PC and check the Boot Tab to see if the CSM. If CSM is enabled, shut down the PC, and with the power off, insert the dedicated GPU in the correct PCIe slot. If there is more than one PCIe slot, insert the dedicated GPU in the 'black slot'. Try other slots to see if the PC can detect the GPU card. When CSM is enabled, it will usually fix the problem; if not, try b) below.

b) For those who can't boot up using onboard graphics but can boot up the PC using a more recent GPU like GTX950 that has UEFI VBios

1) Power off; erase and refresh the CMOS by removing the CMOS battery and short-circuiting the CMOS's 2-pin jumper as instructed in the manual;

2) Restart the PC and check if the PC can boot up through the dedicated GPU; if not, one might have to replace the GPU with a compatible GPU like GTX950 which has UEFI VBios. Once booted up, quickly enable the CSM by following the steps as described in 2(a). Once it is confirmed that the CSM can be enabled in the Bios, shut down the PC and then change back the GP. Restart the PC to check if the PC can detect and post something on the screen; if not, continue to 2 (b) (3);

3) Reflash the motherboard with the latest bios

Download the latest bios from the manufacturers' webpage. In the case of Z590 Pro AX, it is in here and the latest bios is F11. Google and find from either the manufacturer's website or find YouTube video on how to refresh the motherboard. Be very careful to follow the exact instructions as a wrong step taken might brick the PC motherboard. In the case of Gigabyte Boards, it is recommended to use the 'Q-Flash Plus" as it is easy and safe.

4) Once the Bios is reflashed, put everything back in order, insert the dedicated GPU card, and restart. Check if the problem has been fixed; if not, try 2(b) (2)

c) In case, the PC cannot even boot up using a more recent GPU like GTX950 that has UEFI VBios and the motherboard Bios have been reflashed

Most likely the motherboard is toasted or there are some problems with peripheral cards or devices or RAM or CPU or there are other incompatible components that prevent PC from booting up. Troubleshoot, remove, and replace these components.

iPhone and iPad: How to Create a Short Cut in Home Screen to Clear Cache & History

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sat, 23 Nov 2024 05:38:00 +0000

23 November 2024

What are Cache and History?

Cache and browser history store information about websites you've visited. The Cache stores temporary files, like images and web pages, to speed up loading times for websites you've visited. The Browser history stores all the web pages you've visited using a specific browser.

Why Clearing and Deleting Them?

Clearing your browser's cache and history can protect your privacy. If someone has a tracking app on the iPhone, he can inspect and check the history to find the websites you've previously visited.

Will Such Action Delete also Passwords?

Clearing and deleting cache and history will also remove things like saved passwords, address bar predictions, and shopping cart contents unless you have set the browsers not to delete them. But it will not clear the passwords saved in Apple KeyChain.

How to Create a Shortcut to Automate the Process?

Step by Step

1 Launch the Shortcuts application on your iPhone and iPad
Find and select this shortcut icon in the Home Screen

2. Tap the + sign in the top navigation bar.

3. Then tap “add Action” and in the next screen search bar, enter "URL". After that, tap "URL" as shown

4. In this screen, Type or copy and paste exactly the following for the URL: prefs:root=SAFARI&path=CLEAR_HISTORY_AND_DATA after pressing a few times on "Apple.com" until the "Paste" button appears

This will be what the screen looks like after pasting the URL 5. Find the "search action" at the lower half of the screen and enter"Open URLs", then tap the "Open URLs" button

This is what the final screen would look like

6. Now tap the space next to the icon, and in the following screen, give the shortcut a name like "Clear Safari Data". Click "Done" when completed.

7. To create a icon in the Home screen, tap and hold and "..." button on the top "clear Safari Data" shortcut as shown. In the next popup screen, tap "Details", follow by tapping "Add to Home Screen"

8. Now. find the "Clear Safari Data" icon in the Home screen of iPhone.

Simple and Easy Way To Backup Photos, Movies and Documents from handphones

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Tue, 05 Dec 2023 23:04:00 +0000

2 December 2023

In the past, we used iTunes when we wanted to transfer or backup our photos, movies, and documents from iPhones or Android phones to computers. This is tedious, especially in iPhones. Today, we can use thumb drives quickly and easily.

How?

We use Y-Disk Apps and a thumb drive

What needed?

a) A special thumb drive that can use Y-Disk Apps and has the right connectors for your phones and PCs; for example, this thumb drive has the connectors for new and old iPhones and also the connectors for PCs

b) Free Y-Disk Apps that can be downloaded from app stores.

How to Install?

It is plug-and-play. No installation is required except for the installation of the Y-Disk apps.

How to use it?

It is simple. Just plug in the thumb drive and the phones will detect it if one has the Y-Disk apps already installed in the phones. The app allows one to transfer photos such as jpg and png, movies, and documents such as Excel files, etc depending on the design of the thumb drives

How Safe to use?

The software Y-Disk was developed by a Chinese company in Shenzhen. Some users have expressed concerns about the security and privacy of using this app. The AppleStore's App Privacy claims that the developer does not collect any data from this app. However, it has been found that this app did store uploaded documents in its cache and the cache can only be erased when one uninstalls the app.

Windows 10 & 11 : Missing Microsoft Store in Apps and Feature

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 16:04:00 +0000

4 December 2023

When this will happen?

When one upgrades the Windows, one might find the Microsoft Store missing, or when one resets, deletes, or terminates the Microsoft Store in Apps and Features when one is finding solutions to resolve an app downloading problems

Why?

The Microsoft Store apps might be corrupted.

How to Fix?

One might spend hours or days trying to work on many suggestions on the net about how to go around restoring the missing Microsoft Store but to no avail. If that is the case, the following simple solution might just work.

How?

This simple solution makes use of app restoring feature available in Xbox Apps. The steps to restore the Microsoft Store are listed below:

Step 1: Do a Windows Update by clicking this website after choosing either Windows 10 or Windows 11 to update

Click here for the Windows update

Step 2: Do an Xbox installation

Click here to do an Xbos installation

Step 3: Download and Startup the Installation

Step 4: Click "Sign-in" on the top

A sign-in window will pop up. Click setting

Step 5: Click Settings

If one has already signed into Microsoft when using Windows, this screen will appear; if not, a sign-in would be required.

Step 6: Click General

In the following screen that popped up, click to install Microsoft Apps

Step 7: Go and check if the Microsoft Store is installed in Apps and Features.

Step 8: If everything is in order, set a restore point to restore Windows in the future.

Automation Error when running Selenium VBA on Excel

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sat, 02 Dec 2023 06:50:00 +0000

2 December 2023

Chromedriver for SeleniumBasic was running fine before and returned "Automate Error" when Excel was upgraded.

This error always happened when Excel started to run this macro statement

driver.start "chrome", ""

Why?

This error will happen when the .NET Framework 3.5 is missing. One would need to download and install framework 3.5 which is required by Selenium Chrome Driver.

What could happen when installing .Net Framework 3.5?

As .Net Framework 3.5 is pretty old software, it might be possible that Windows 10 might refuse to install .Net Framework 3.5. When this happened, one could install .Net Framework using the installation scripts that come together with "SeleniumBasic-2.0.9.0".

After having run and install "SeleniumBasic-2.0.9.0", go to "C:\Users\%username%\AppData\Local\SeleniumBasic\Scripts\" and run " StartChrome.vbs". The scripts will the automatically download and install .Net Framework 3.5.

What if the above Won't Work?

The .NET Framework is an integral part of many applications running on Windows and provides common functionality for those applications to run. Normally, before running/installing such applications,

It might be possible that .NET Frame could have already been installed but deactivated. This is especially true when one upgrades or reinstalls Windows 10 while keeping the personal files. If this is the case, one needs only to enable .NET Framework from the Control Panel on the compute as follows:

a) Press “Windows Logo” + “R” keys on the keyboard.

b) Type “appwiz.cpl” in the “Run” command box and press “ENTER”.

c) In the “Programs and Features” window, click on the link “Turn Windows features on or off”.

d) Check if the “.NET Framework 3.5 (includes .NET 2.0 and 3.0)” option is available in it.

e) If yes, then enable it and then click on “OK”.

f) Follow the on-screen instructions to complete the installation and restart the computer, if prompted.

Where SembCorp's Price is Heading?

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Thu, 07 Sep 2023 00:53:00 +0000

Jump to article

1) 29 August 2023: SembCorp to be listed in the MSCI S'pore

2) 27 August 2023: SembCorp Testing the Support S1

3) 15 August 2023: Is SembCorp Suffering from a Pump and Dump?

4) 04 August 2023: SembCorp Announced Profit Surge of 56% for First-Half 2023

5) 31 July 2023: SembCorp Establishing S$5,000,000,000 EURO MEDIUM TERM NOTE

6) 04 July 2023: SembCorp Technical Analysis from 4 July to 28 July

7 September 2023

SembCorp closed yesterday with a price of S$ 5.08 which is 2.7% down from Tuesday's closing price of S$ 5.22. SembCorp's price has lost a total of S$1.01 or 17% since 7 August 2023 when the news about SembCorp being listed in MSCI Singapore was first spread in various forums.

This article will try to find out where SembCorp's price might be heading.

The reason why SembCorp’s Price was Falling

In the last article dated 1 September, we explained that Sembcorp stock demand would increase when it rejoined the MSCI index. This is due to an effect called S&P Phenomenon. Unfortunately, this S&P Phenomenon did not cause SembCorp’s price to rise but fall because the MSCI Singapore had not been performing to its best lately.

Will SembCorp’s Price Rise Soon?

Many traders were expecting SembCorp’s to rise sooner because it has fallen quite a lot and SembCorp has reported a sterling result for 1H2023 Some even speculated the price would rise even faster and quicker than before if history can repeat itself. Let’s examine in this article if this is possible from the angle of Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

Unfortunately, the Technical Analysis from the following chart is telling us a different story. This is because there are at least 3 weaknesses in SembCorp's technical chart.

First, we see a dead cross with 20-day MA cutting below 50-day MA; then, we see:

The price cut below the 100-day MA;
A bear flag formed with a target price below S$ 5.00

Fortunately, the 100-day and 200-day are still rising. This will give hope that SembCorp's price might have a chance to reverse its course if the prevailing condition is favorable.

Click to enlarge the picture
Figure 1

What about the Prevailing Conditions?

Unfortunately, the prevailing conditions are not able to support SembCorp's price at the moment. Let's examine the various relevant indexes that can support the rise of SembCorp's price.

a) The STI & The MSCI Singapore

Click to enlarge the picture
Figure 2

Both the STI and MSCI Singapore indexes are littered with a lot of dead crosses. It is not hopeful that they can lend any support to push SembCorp's price up in the shorter term.

Trading Economics has a forecast that the STI index will fall to 3.124 by the end of 2023

Figure 3

The Global Indexes

The US and Hong Kong markets used to have a lot of influence on Singapore's stock price but lately, the Hong Kong market was in a mess and the US market has begun to soften, ready to make further corrections. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) has made 2 straight falls in the last 2 days. It is ready to form a bear flag as shown in the following chart. DOW has also started to make the first dead cross with the 20-day MA already crossing the 50-day MA. We will expect DOW to make lower lows with the present setup.

Figure 4

Conclusion

Given the above, we are expecting SembCorp's price to drop further to test not only Support S3 @ S$ 5.01 but also Support S4 @ S$ 4.86 as shown in Figure 1 above. If these 2 supports cannot hold the fall, the price might test the bear flag target price @ S$ 4.58 which happened to be also the Support S5.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

Where Hong Kong and Shanghai Bources Heading?

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sun, 03 Sep 2023 23:48:00 +0000

1 September 2023

Using Google to search about the economy of Hong Kong and China, we got the following picture

Seven out of the eight news have negative reports about Hong Kong and China's economy except one and only from the Hong Kong Government.

In that report from the Hong Kong Government. it pointed out that "real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (of Hong Kong) grew by 1.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023 after having increased by 2.9% in the preceding quarter. Nonetheless, the report concluded by saying "the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been revised (upwards) to 4.0%-5.0%, from 3.5%-5.5% in May 2023"

On the other hand, the Chinese authorities in China have come up with various measures trying to lift the sentiments in the stock market and the business sectors, including slashing the stock market trading fees. They are also trying to stimulate spending by cutting the bank deposit rate.

This article will examine how the stock market has responded to all the measures and the propaganda done so far to uplift the market sentiments.

The Shanghai Stock Market

The Shanghai market was performing pretty well before May 2023 and after China announced the re-opening of its borders in December 2022. However, the market soon started to fall apart in early May when there were reports about China's economy not performing as well as expected. Also, the retail sales of consumer goods were missing forecasts. The Industrial output and foreign investment have slowed down.

During the period between May and June 2023, we saw the Shangai stock market lose more than 7%. from 3,395 to 3,150 or about 250 points. The market recovered a little when China vowed to come out with further measures to bolster the Chinese economy and lift the stock market performance. These measures include slashing the stamp duties for IPOs, reducing the stock trading fees, etc. However, these measures and efforts did not help much to lift the stock market because there was a slew of bad news about the economy not performing well and continuing to pump out.

Technically speaking from the Shanghai Index chart shown below, the Shanghai Index was littered with dead crosses all over (marked in the red circle).

The more serious one appears to be the large red circle that shows the 20 MA breaking below 50 MA and the 20 MA and 50 MA breaking the 200 MA together at the same time on the same day. That was just after 14 August when Country Garden suspended trading in 11 of its onshore bonds with a forecast of USD7.16 billion in losses in the first half.

The bad news about the bankruptcy filings of Evergrande in the US courts on 19 August further aggravated the market fall sending the Shanghai Index deeper into the red.

The index tried to make an attempt to recover from the doom drum on 26 August but failed.

If we draw the Shanghai Index using candlesticks, we can see that the Index struggled but failed to recover on 28 August 2023. That particular candlestick on 28 August covered up 2 candlestick gaps leaving one @ G1 behind to be covered in the future as shown in the following chart.

Given the above scenarios, we are not optimistic that the Shanghai Index will be able to recover from this recent fall and cause a reversal to happen soon. We are expecting the index to have a hard time climbing back to cover the gap at G1. Meanwhile, if the Shanghai index fails to break the resistance R1 @ 3,150 or goes above 20 MA, we are expecting it to seek lower lows that could go below 3.000.

What about Hong Kong HSI?

Presently, we saw HSI mimicking the pattern of the Shanghai stock market. It will aim to test the support trendline T3 if it fails to conquer and go above the resistance at Trendline T2,

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

SembCorp to be listed in the MSCI Singapore index

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Wed, 30 Aug 2023 00:53:00 +0000

Jump to article

1) 29 August 2023: SembCorp to be listed in the MSCI S'pore

2) 27 August 2023: SembCorp Testing the Support S1

3) 15 August 2023: Is SembCorp Suffering from a Pump and Dump?

4) 04 August 2023: SembCorp Announced Profit Surge of 56% for First-Half 2023

5) 31 July 2023: SembCorp Establishing S$5,000,000,000 EURO MEDIUM TERM NOTE

6) 04 July 2023: SembCorp Technical Analysis from 4 July to 28 July

1 September 2023 Update

This was the picture taken down by a forumer in the last few seconds during the 5-minute daily price settlement period on 31 August 2023.

click to enlarge the picture

The picture shows that the trading on SembCorp's share was very active during the last trading minute. The price at the closing time of 5:00 pm was S$5.44 and there were over 40 million shares placed at the price of S$5.36 just seconds away from the end of the 5-minute settlement time. This is a drop of S$0.08 which is about 1.5%. At the end of the settlement time, the closing price for the day was S$5.35 with a total trading volume of 76,948,000 shares which is a record-breaking trading volume since 29 May 2020.

According to historical data, SembCorp had a trading volume of about 90 million on 6 June and 115 million trading volume on 29 May 2020.

Why high trading volume in 2020?

May 29 2020 was the time when SembCorp was delisted from MSCI Singapore Index

June 9 2020 was the time when SemCorp subscribed up to S$1.5bn of rights shares in SembCorp Marine (SMM) without any cash outlay. It was estimated that SembCorp holders could get substantial benefits from the recapitalization of SMM.

Takeaways

1. The listing and delisting of any stock in any index would bring about an S&P phenomenon in which there will always be a boost in trading volume;

2. The price of the stock may rise or fall depending on the condition of the prevailing market or the index;

29 August 2023

SembCorp to be listed in the MSCI index

There was an announcement that SembCorp will be listed in the MSCI index on 1 September 2023. This news had excited many traders. Some forumers said that the listing would lift the trading sentiments and cause SembCorp's price to go up. However, some forumers were not so optimistic. This article will try to examine how the listing of SembCorp will affect SembCorp’s price before and after it has been listed on 1 September 2023.

What is the MSCI index?

MSCI index, also known as the Morgan Stanley Capital International Index, is a widely recognized market benchmark for global equity markets. It provides investors with a comprehensive snapshot of stock market performance by tracking the performance of a specific set of stocks or sectors in various countries. It plays an important role in attracting foreign investment.

How will it affect Newly listed stock?

Those stocks newly listed in the MSCI index will experience an increase in demand and trading volumes and the price of the stock will be affected. Many global fund managers and International players often use the MSCI index as a guideline for allocating their investment portfolios in different countries. They might also want to be involved in the trading activities of the MSCI-listed stocks for various reasons, such as window dressings to boost the financial reports.

Will the price go up after being listed?

The inclusion in any kind of index will invariably lift the trading sentiments and may also provide a temporary boost from retail buying, especially those from International buyers who are trading the index. This phenomenon is called the “S&P phenomenon”.

There is always a tendency for the stock price to temporarily rise following the announcement of its addition to the index.

Did this S&P phenomenon Happen?

The answer is Yes. It did happen on 7 August 2023 which is about 1 week before the actual announcement. Then SembCorp’s price jumped about 9%.

Although the actual announcement was on 14 August, there were already some discussions in some forums about the MSCI inclusion way back on 7 August 2023. Nonetheless, on the day of the announcement on 14 August, SembCorp’s price dropped about 2% as shown in the following plot

Will SembCorp’s Price go up after 1 September?

This will be anyone’s guess. Presently, the MSCI Singapore’s performance is not as good as the other global MSCI as shown in the following picture

The gross return since 1994 is only about half of the other global index

What about the Future of MSCI Singapore?

The future of MSCI Singapore does not look too bright either from the following chart.

We are seeing many dead crosses littering all over the chart. In the latest week, we saw the 20 MA and 100 MA crossing below the 200 MA and also the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA. The chart shows us that MSCI Singapore will be under tremendous pressure to recover from the recent fall.

Given the above, we are not optimistic that SembCorp’s price will leap and bounce after 1 September. The situation may improve if the global equity market turns for the better in the next quarter.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

SembCorp Testing the Support S1

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sun, 27 Aug 2023 12:18:00 +0000

27 August 2023

The Pump and Dump sent SembCorp's price down by about 10% from a high of S$6.09 on 7 August to a low of S$5.19 on 23 August. As expected, it tested the support S1 @ S$5.24 and rebounded to close @ S$ 5.39 last Friday 25 August.

This article will examine the reason for the pump and dump action. It will try to find out where SembCorp's price would be heading next.

The 1H2023 Financial Report

SembCorp reported a profit surge of 56.3% in 1H2023. The profit surged mainly because SembCorp saved about S$1.25B due to the higher electricity tariff in Singapore. This better income boosted the operating profit but the revenue was not as good as compared to 1H2022 as shown in this chart from Teleview.

The joy for the boost in profits in 1H2923 was shortlived and apparently, has been offset by a reduction in the current and quick ratio. This "shortfall" in the company's short-term liquidity may be caused by an oversight in the accountant, resulting in the current asset of the company being lower than the current liability.

However, this short-term liquidity problem would not have much financial implication for a big Corporation like SembCorp because most creditors would be willing to extend the debt payment period or change their credit terms if there is a request.

Teleview has also flagged that the Trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue was 3% below the year 2022. Again, this difference is not going to have too much impact on the stock performance as long as SembCorp can show that it has the capability to meet the long-term goals.

Technically

We found SembCorp's price struggling to recover from the recent pump and dump. The price hit the support S1 and rebounded strongly on Friday with a price rise of more than 2%.

By this time, many would have thought that SembCorp's price would be on its way to recovery but the attached chart is telling us not to be too optimistic. This is because:-

a) The price has broken the strong Trendline support T1; it would have to climb back to cross Trendline T1 as the first step of the recovery process; then.

b) The textbook is telling us that the price must recover and go above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to ensure that the stock has fully recovered. The 61.8% Fibonacci price is at S$5.78. This is about +7% of the present price of S$5.39; also.

c) There is still no significant sign of any recovery in the global markets.

Should the price not be able to satisfy the above 2 conditions, we would expect the price to fall back again to test the support S2 and other supports below S1. On its way down, it would test the support at the 100-day moving average.

click to enlarge the chart

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

Other Articles about SembCorp

Is SembCorp Suffering from a Pump and Dump?

SembCorp Announced Profit Surge of 56% for First-Half 2023

SembCorp (U96) Establishing S$5,000,000,000 EURO MEDIUM TERM NOTE

SembCorp Technical Analysis from 4 July to 28 July

Where Keppel's Price Would be Heading Next?

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sun, 20 Aug 2023 11:20:00 +0000

20 July 2023

Keppel's price climbed from S$4.50 in February 2023 to an all-time high of S$7.40 in August. This is a price rise of about 65% in the last 6 months. It is quite a price jump.

We are now beginning to witness Keppel starting to do a serious correction. This is because Keppel’s price chart:

a) has not only broken the supporting trendline T2, it has also broken the 50-day moving average;
b) has it's the Bollinger band started to expand;

lastly, we are beginning to see the global market prices doing their corrections. The US market was down lately, and one US analyst expected the US market to correct as much as 10%. We are also beginning to see the Chinese Economy losing its steam in the 2^nd quarter of 2023.

(Note that we have been using the newer charting tool because the chart from investing.com has not been price adjusted for the distribution in specie (DIS) of SembCorp Marine shares in February 2023)

When was the last Serious Correction?

The last serious correction happened in 2022. That was when China's economy was badly affected by the zero Covid policy. Then there were protests going on in many cities against the Chinese Government.

Reuter has this news report that China's 2022 economic growth was one of the worst on record.

During that difficult period, we have seen Keppel’s prices not only breaking the 50-day moving average but also touching the 200-day on 2 occasions (marked as Pt1 and Pt2 in the following chart).

But the news that China was about to end the zero Covid policy and open its doors towards the end of December 2022 lifted the market sentiment. This has not only stopped Keppel’s prices from sliding further but also seen a 20% price jump in February 2023. Since then, Keppel's prices changed their track. This is because the Chinese Economy was predicted by the official news to recover and run much faster in the post-Covid period

Where would the Price be going?

Moving forward, we expect Keppel’s price to test S1 @ S$6.45. This is also where the 100-day moving average is located. It might want to test S2 @ S$ 6.25 if the global market condition has not improved.

For the moment, we expect Keppel’s price will leave the 200-day moving average alone, not until the global market has turned for the worst. This is because the Distribution in species (DIS) of Keppel Reit announced recently will resist the falls.

When will be the right time to re-enter the market?

The technical book is advising us to wait until :

a) the MACD and its signal line have completely closed up and started its upward climb just like those good days before, plus, most importantly;
b) the MACD's climb must be supported by a rising Chaikin Money flow to show that smart money is flowing into the market.

Presently, the Keppel’s MACD and its signal line have a tendency of widening which could mean the fall might be extended; also, the falling of the Chaikin Money flow is supporting such a move.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions

Other related articles

a) Singapore Stock: Keppel Corporation Limited (SGX: BN4)

Is SembCorp Suffering from a Pump and Dump?

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Tue, 15 Aug 2023 13:32:00 +0000

15 August 2023

SembCorp’s price rose about 8.8% from S$5.60 to S$6.09 in one single bounce on 7 August, breaking not only the symmetrical triangle but also making the All-Time-High price that many were hoping for. Some traders attributed this price jump to the good 1H 2023 report that SembCorp just presented on 4 August. Unfortunately, the price leaps and bounces turned out to be nothing but a “pump and dump” like exercise.

What is a Pump and Dump?

It is a technique usually used by some rogue traders who want to make more money by pumping up the price of a stock and then dumping the stock they were holding at inflated prices. As a result, the price of the stock will go back down or even go below where the pumping of the stock started.

Isn’t the Pump and Dump Scheme Illegal?

There are rules about the pump and dump scheme and the Authority has been warning people about such scheme being used. For example, SGX RegCo has warned about some illegal pump and dump schemes being spread in the Telegram Chat Group.

However, the “Pump and Dump” technique has never died. It has been used all the time, and even on stocks such as Gamestop. The use of such a technique is more prevalent in penny stocks where Corporate information is not always available.

Is this SembCorp’s Pump and Dump Case Illegal?

Most Rule books are actually more referring to pump-and-dump schemes that manipulated the market and not the pump-and-dump technique used by rogue traders to earn some quick bucks. There is nothing illegal about using the pump-and-dump technique if there is no evidence of market manipulation.

A good example is GameStop Corp's pump and dump case. Gamestop has a US$6.0 billion market cap today. It was reported that an investor boosted the price of Gamestop from US$ 20 to US$483 in 2021. The price fell soon after by 90% to US$53 in a few days. Many traders lost their pants. Federal Authorities were reported to have investigated but there were no results reported. There was even a Congressional Hearing and some law sues. Those interested in the case can refer to this Wikipedia report.

In the case of SembCorp, there were no reports so far about any market manipulation on the pump and dump exercise. The trader(s) who pumped and dumped could be making use of the excellent news report of SembCorp’s 1H 2023 result to carry out their work. As the information is publicly available, there is nothing illegal about using such information.

More About SembCorp’s 1H2023 result

SembCorp announced a profit surge of 56.3% for its first-half 2023 report on 4 August 2023. It was also reported that The most significant profit contributor to the surge is the conventional energy business.

From SembCorp's financial report, we can extract the following 2 pictures.

Picture 1: The balance sheet

Picture 2: The Income and Expense Report

SembCorp's net profit was mainly from the lower gas costs. There was a saving of about S$763 million YOY. This amount is more than enough to cover the profit gained. The higher cost of sale on HOH was 12.1% was seasonal. Singapore weather is always colder toward the end of the year.

Hence, if traders were observant and had studied SembCorp carefully, they would have avoided this recent pump-and-dump exercise.

Technical Analysis

Technically, we are seeing SembCorp’s price resting on the trendline T1 which has now turned into a support after the price has broken up on 7 August.

We are expecting the price to make a rebound from the support although the picture may be a bit “shaky”. This is because the price uptrend is still intact with MACD and Chaikin Money Flow in the positive region. The exception is that the price has broken the 15-day moving average as shown in the following chart,

Maybe if the global market condition is good, SembCorp's price can rebounce from Trendline T1. However, the global market is not looking good at the moment. It is about to do a serious correction.

Should SembCorp's price decides to break the support T1, we might expect it to test trendline T2 and maybe even the supports, S1 and S2.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

Other Articles about SembCorp

SembCorp Announced Profit Surge of 56% for First-Half 2023

SembCorp (U96) Establishing S$5,000,000,000 EURO MEDIUM TERM NOTE

SembCorp Technical Analysis from 4 July to 28 July

Is the US Market Rally over?

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sun, 06 Aug 2023 12:36:00 +0000

25 August 2023

This US market correction started around the 1st of August and has been going on for over 3 weeks. In between, it has rallied when some major stocks reported better-than-expected earnings.

For example, the DOW jumped over 1% on 6 August when Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted record earning results, beating the estimates. Again on 23 August, the Nasdaq jumped over 1% when NVIDIA posted its record-breaking earnings and the DOW went up by about 0.5%.

Unfortunately, the rally lost its steam the next day after DOW and other US bourses shed their gain. Nasdaq lost about 2% and S&P and DOW over 1%, wiping out their gains for the week.

All-in-all, DOW has lost a total of about 4.5% from its peak around 1st August.

Where DOW would be heading?

In the last article on 5 August 2023, we spotted that DOW has 3 candlestick gaps to cover. There is also a supporting Trendline T1. If this Trendline T1 is broken, DOW will want to go lower. On its way down, those candlestick gaps will be covered if the supports S2 @ 33,718 or thereabout failed to hold the price slides.

Let's look at the picture of DOW today

Click picture to enlarge

In this new chart, we are introducing 4 technical indicators to chart our direction. These are

a) The Bollinger Band indicator;

b) The 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving average indicators;

c) The MACD momentum indicator, and

d) The Chaikin Money Flow indicator

From the chart, we saw readily that

a) DOW's Candlestick G1 was covered on Tuesday;
b) DOW has broken the 20-day and 50-day moving average and now resting at the 100-day moving average;
c) The Bollinger band is still expanding, and

d) There were no signs that the MACD had begun to pick and the money was flowing into the market.

With such conditions prevailing, we are expecting that

a) DOW will continue to slide and test Trendline T1 today or next week;
b) The bulls will put up a fight, trying to recover lost ground and preventing DOW from testing the Trendline T1.
c) DOW to test the support  S2 @ 33,716 If T1 cannot hold the sliding;
d) Dow will proceed to cover up the candlestick gap G3 if S2 cannot hold the price slide.

By then, DOW would have shed by about 8% from its peak on 1st August 2023.

5 August 2023

The US market has had a good time for the past 10 months since October 2022 when DOW hit the bottom @ 28,700. Since then, the US market has rallied up 18%. Today, it is at around 35,000 which is just a few stone's throw away from the all-time high of 36,990 in 2022.

Now many traders noted that the US market has started to soften, significantly after Fitch downgraded the US Credit rating from AAA to AA+ on Tue 01 Aug 2023. They were wondering if this was the end of the rally or if it was just another correction.

US Credit Rating Downgrade- A Non-Event

On 24 May 2023, Fitch placed the United States 'AAA' Rating (IDR) on Rating Watch Negative. This was mainly because the US Treasury said it would run out of money by 1 June 2023. At that time, Fitch already had a ‘AAA” rating on the U.S. country ceiling. It said that the US rating would still remain at 'AAA' even when there was a debt default. However, Fitch had some negative comments about the high and rising US Debt burden.

On the other hand, Analysts at Singapore’s DBS were dead sure that Fitch’s downgrade on the US’s rating was a non-event for the equity market. They wereprettye sure that the equity market, going ahead, would be driven by the Corporate earnings, and the prevailing macro conditions.

Wasn’t there a Downgrade in 2011 sending Stocks Tumbling 7%?

There was a similar downgrade in August 2011. That time, it was S&P who degraded the US's credit rating. That downgrade caused the S&P500 to lose 7% on a Monday, 8 August 2011, which was popularly known to be the “Black Monday” in the history of the stock market. Then there was a debt ceiling crisis during the era of President Barack Obama. However, the US Government official pointed out that S&P had made an error of USD 2 Trillion error in its calculation. As a result, many Analysts were of the view that this S&P downgrade was more or less politically motivated.

Why This Time is Different?

Anyway, the situation is very different today. We can see from the following 2 Fred charts that:

a) The market liquidity is much better off today as compared to those days in 2011. Then the US was just started to introduce QE. They were careful doing it and the liquiditiy run out soon after;

b) The present National Financial Condition has improved and started to ease after the market recovered in October 2022. Unlike those days in 2011, the financial condition then was rising at a very fast rate, just like those days before the 2008 market crash.

Also, many traders in 2011 didn’t quite understand the power of Quantitative Easing (QE). They tended to panic quickly, especially when they had had a wrong time just two years ago.

The recent Fitch downgrade of the US rating to "AAA" was already speculated in May 2023. Fitch was just confirming it on 1 August. Also, the damages done by the 2011 downgrade were recovered within a week.

Given the above, we tend to agree with the Analysts in DBS that this Fitch downgrade on the US credit rating is not likely to have a serious impact on the equity market.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, we are seeing DOW testing the support S1 at 35,100 in the weekly chart. If this support S1 is bleached, DOW would want to test the support at trendline T1. The other support S2 and S3 are shown in the following chart.

Here is another picture of the technical chart in a daily plot.

Candlestick Gaps

We found 3 candlestick gaps when DOW was making its way up the “ladder”. These are namely, G1, G2, and G3 respectively in the following chart.

We expect these gaps would be filled when DOW were to break below trendline T1. They are just ordinary gaps. This is provided the key support S2 cannot hold the price slides.

When will the market recover?

We can’t read directly from the DOW’s chart when will the market recover from the present falls but we found both the S&P500 and Nasdaq had already broken their Trendline T1 as shown in the following chart. This was about a week ago.

From the S&P chart, we are expecting the price to test the support S1 @ 4,340 which is just a stone's throw away. It would be the time when DOW is about to test its trendline T1. We would expect DOW to fill up gaps G1 and might be G2 on its way down.

SembCorp Announced Profit Surge of 56% for First-Half 2023

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Fri, 04 Aug 2023 02:43:00 +0000

4 August 2023

SembCorp announced a profit surge of 56.3% for its first-half 2023 report. However, the market was not excited by this good profit news. It opened today at a price of S$5.60 and went up as high as S$5.62, which is only 2 Singapore cents up from yesterday’s closing price. What went wrong?

Possible reasons

The biggest profit contributor to the surge is the conventional energy business;
The proposed interim dividend is only 5 Singapore cents per share;
Technical reasons.

Profit Contributors

As reported by the StraitsTimes, the biggest profit contributor is the conventional energy business, These are profits from its conventional power generation.

As this profit is a recurring profit generated by higher electricity tariffs which may include some profits from fuel hedging, the traders might have already priced in the earlier pricing.

As Energy prices have been falling since they reached their peak last May, traders could have expected these earnings from conventional energy businesses will drop in the future.

For information, JP Morgan suggested SembCorp's price would drop down to S$4.50 when they speculated the electricity tariff would drop in the near future.

Interim Dividends

Many traders were of the view that the interim dividend of 5 Singapore cents was a disappointment. At a price of S$5.60 today, it is only about 0.8%. It is a far cry compared to the 56% profit surge that SembCorp was making in the first half of 2023.

Technical Reasons

Technically, we see SembCorp’s price having difficulties getting above the trendline T1 in the past few trading days. It climbed as high as S$5.80 during the day just to find the price dropped below S$ 6.20 by the closing time.

The price is presently trapped in the horizontal symmetrical triangle waiting for the trendlines to be broken. It has 2 immediate support, S1 and S2 as can be seen from the following chart. Unless there is better news coming out for SembCorp, it is unlikely that SembCorp’s price will break T1.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

Other Articles about SembCorp

SembCorp (U96) Establishing S$5,000,000,000 EURO MEDIUM TERM NOTE

SembCorp Technical Analysis from 4 July to 28 July

SingTel (Z74) 's Performance vs Telkomsel's Performance

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Thu, 03 Aug 2023 03:51:00 +0000

4 August 2023

Following Citi's comment on the softness in net profit from Telkomsel would affect SingTel's profit, SingTel came out to clarify that Telkomsel’s 21 percent year-on-year decline in net profit as reported was caused by fair value revaluation of its investment in consumer Internet company GoTo. Such revaluation will not affect Singtel’s net profit or underlying net profit.

It was reported that Telkomsel’s net income for the second quarter ended Jun 30 fell to 5.41 trillion rupiah (S$476.2 million) from 6.82 trillion rupiah.

Technical Analysis

The false news about SingTel's falling profit had caused a candlestick gap (Not adjusted see note) with about 5.5 million trading volume on 2 August.

The volume is about 3 times the 100-day average, The gap can be considered to be a normal gap with high trading volume that might take only weeks to cover the gap. This is because a runaway gap that would take months to cover would normally have a trading volume of more than 4 times the average.

As the gap is caused by false news, we expect the gap to be filled in a much shorter time than it used to be.

Note: The closing price of SingTel on 1 August was S$2.64. After adjusting for the dividends, it should be read as S$2.56.

3 August 2023

SingTel’s price dropped from S$ 2.64 on 1 August to close at S$ 2.46 on 2 August, a drop of about 6.8%. This is because

a) It was an Ex-Dividend day for SingTel. There were altogether 2 Dividend payouts, one for S$ 0.025 and the other for S$ 0.053. The total dividend was S$0.078.

b) Citi has flagged softness from Telkomsel, its regional associate in Indonesia.

SingTel’s Shares in Telkomsel

Telkomsel is owned by Telkom. Indonesia and SingTel. Presently, SingTel has a share of 30.5% in Telkomsel under its subsidiary, Singapore Telecom Mobile.

How Telkomsel’s performance will affect SingTel?

According to the 2022 annual report, Telkomsel has a table showing the following profit and loss for the last 5 years.

We can see that Telkomsel’s net income has slid from Rup 26,160 billion (S$ 2.3 billion) in 2021 to Rup 18,367 (S$ 1.6 billion) in 2022. This is about a 30% drop or a drop of Rup 7.800 billion (S$ 690 million).

However, the EBITDA has increased slightly. As the revenue increase with lower Net Income, it would suggest that the competition for Telkomsel was quite keen in 2022. As EBITDA is still growing, the long-term performance for Telkomsel appears to be on track for better performance in the future.

As the loss of income in Telkomsel will reflect as a loss in SingTel’s revenue, we expect SingTel’s revenue loss for 2022 as compared to 2021 was only S$210 million (S$690 x 30%).

As SingTel’s revenue for 2022/23 was S$14.62 billion, this S$210 million loss in revenue was only 1.4% (210/14,620) of SingTel revenue for 2022/23.

SingTel’s FY 2023 performance

SingTel, in its FY 2023 presentation in May 2023 said,

1) Full-year net profit was up 14% to S$2.23 billion;

2) Regional associates’ pre-tax contributions up by 10% to S$2.27 billion;

3) EBITDA and EBIT increased by 3% and 8% respectively;

It would appear SingTel’s earning has not been affected at all by the lower net income of 1.4% from Telkomsel.

For information, Telkomsel’s FY 2022 result was reported in December 2022 and SingTel's FY 2023 was reported in May 2023.

Given the above, we do not expect Telkomsel’s performances will have much impact on SingTel’s performance going ahead.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

Other Articles about SingTel

Technical Analysis for SingTel on 26 July 2023

SembCorp (U96) Establishing S$5,000,000,000 EURO MEDIUM TERM NOTE.

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Mon, 31 Jul 2023 15:30:00 +0000

31 July 2023

SembCorp Industries (SCI) just announced that it has established a S$5,000,000,000 Euro Medium Term Note (MTN) Programme today and DBS Bank Ltd. has been appointed as the sole arranger and dealer under the Programme. This MTN is guaranteed by SCI. Henceforth, SCI’s subsidiaries, together with SCI may raise money from this MTN from time to time, subject to certain conditions having been fulfilled.

What is the difference between MTN and Bonds?

Both MTN and Bonds are instruments to raise funds except MTN is simple to issue because it is a discrete fund between the 3 parties, the issuer, the agent, and the investor. On the other hand, the issuing of bonds will need a public offering. In the past, the issuing of bonds had often been perceived as the company was in financial distress.

MTNs are usually sold in small amounts, either continuously or intermittently.

Some companies still prefer to issue bonds because it is more cost-effective; also, the bonds allow investment banks to buy the entire issue from the companies and then sell it to the public to earn commissions, etc. The risk of selling is therefore transferred from the companies to the investment bank.

For more information, please refer to this article.

How will it affect stock prices?

As MTN are like Bonds, they are instruments of debt. They will invariably affect stock prices. But, the effect of MTN is usually much less than Bonds for the main reason that a public offering of bonds often gives the impression that the company is in distress. On the other hand, MTN is usually carried out discretely. Presently, SCI is only establishing the MTN program. There are no raising of any debts mentioned.

The effect may be more only when traders are aware of the real purpose for raising the MTN is not for expansion but for debt servicing.

Examples

When SCI established a S$3 billion Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme on April 3, 2020, it caused little or no reaction to the SCI’s prices as shown in the attached chart. Also, we have observed no appreciable reactions when SCI or its subsidiaries issued Notes or debts in other periods using this instrument.

This is also the case when SIA established its $10 billion MTN during the pandemic. It is only when SIA issued a bond from the MTN that sent the stock price tumbling by as much as 20%

Given the above, we do not foresee that this S$ 5 billion MTN established by SCI will have any material impact on SCI’s trading price at the moment.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

Other Related Articles

SembCorp Technical Analysis from 4 July to 28 July

SembCorp Industries Singapore Technical Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sat, 29 Jul 2023 01:24:00 +0000

28 July 2023

For the last 2 trading days, SembCorp’s price has tried hard to recover from its recent fall caused by the termination of Sembwaste’s divestment plan. The price movement has almost covered up the candlestick gap created by the last fall except it fell short of S$ 0.01 as shown in this attached chart.

Going forward, we are expecting SembCorp’s price to range-bounced, testing either the Trendline T1 or Trendline T2 while waiting for the 1H 2023 results to be announced on 4 August 2023.

Technical Analysis

Technically, SembCorp’s price is trapped in a horizontal symmetrical triangle as shown in the attached chart. SembCorp’s price can either fully recover from the recent fall if the price can break Trendline T1 or continue to fall for lower lows. It can even test the various price support lines until it reaches the price when SembCorp first announces the divestment of Sembwaste. Meantime, we rexpect SembCorp’s price to go sideways until the 1H 2023 result is announced on 4 August.

Why the Candlestick is not fully closed?

The trading on 27 July had almost closed the candlestick gap except for the gap of S$0.01 which is awestrickening to many traders. This is because the filling of a gap is just about 1 or 2 keystrokes away.

The only description that could fit SembCorp's trading pattern is the "Downside Tasuki Gap pattern".

In a Downside Tasuki gap pattern, the Bears will push down the price so strongly to form a candlestick gap on the first day. The Bulls will then try to push the price up the next day, But they failed to cover the gap convincingly. If the subsequent attempts also failed to cover the gap, it would mean that the bulls have likely fleed and the price would continue to fall.

We are now observing and monitoring if this Downside Tasuki Gap is the right trading pattern for SembCorp and if a good SembCorp's 1H 2023 will negate this downtrend.

26 July 2023

Today, SembCorp’s price dropped to close at S$5.46. This price is near to what we had expected earlier.

The following chart suggested that there is a Support S2 that SembCorp’s price might want to test next. There is also a trendline T2.

Will the price continue to fall?

The price drop today is S$0.20 or 3.36%. Is this price drop done? Has the price drop taken care of the capital gain for the disposal of SembWaste?

To answer, it would be good to know what is the “weight” of the disposal deal and how much it will be worth in turn of stock price.

1) The CGS-CIMB Target Revision
To start off, we noticed Business Times has an article report about CGS-CIMB revising its target after hearing about the SembWaste disposal news on 5 June.

The report said:

a) CGS-CIMB has upped its price target for Sembcorp Industries 3.36% to S$6.20 from S$5.12 following news of the group’s potential divestment of its waste management business, SembWaste;
b) The disposal is estimated to have a divestment gain of S$225 million to S$250 million.

In other words, CGS-CIMB expected SembCorp’s target lifting price to be S$1.08 if SembWaste was disposed of. The divestment would add some S$250 million as capital gain.
2) Converting the Estimated Divestment gain of S$250 million
As the S$250 million is a gain or earning. It must be converted to share value for comparison purposes.

There are presently 1.7 billion SembCorp shares in existence.

This S$250 million will work out to be S$ 0.147 (250 million/1.7 billion) per share. The PE ratio on 5 June was 11.9 Rightly speaking, this S$250 million divestment gain when converted to share price is S$0.147 x 11.9 or S$1.75. This S$1.75 is higher than the CGS-CIMB’s target lifting price of S$1.08.
Therefore, if we were to base on CGS-CIMB’s estimation and if there is correction, we would have to move the final target priceby S$1.08 to S$4.57 as shown in the attached chart. This target price was close to the price at which the divestment of SembWaste was first mooted on 9 May.

Will the Price Ever Recover?

The answer is definitely a yes. This is because there is a big and glaring candlestick gap of about S$0.16 as shown in the following chart. This gap was created with a moderate trading volume. This gap can be considered as a normal gap which will be covered in due time.

When will the Gap be Covered?

This will be everybody’s guess. If the price is to drop further in days to come, we might expect the price to move slowly down testing the various supports. We also expect the gap will not be covered within a week unless there is other good news coming ahead before or after the 1H 2023 result presentation on 4 August

As the candlestick has already tested and bounded from T2, the price might want to make an attempt to cover the gap, failing which it would want to fall back and retest T2 again,

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

25 July 2023

After the trading hours, SemCorp announced it would drop the plan to sell its waste management company, Sembwaste.

On May 9, when Reuter said there were interested parties to buy Sembwaste, SembCorp's price went up by 3.1% or S$0.14. It hit an all-time high. But when SembCorp came out the next day to clarify that there were no definite deals to sell SembWaste, the stock price dropped back immediately as shown in the following picture

However, Straits Times in its news on 10 May added that “the first round of non-binding bids was expected to be early June. This might have given hope to the traders that the discussion would be ongoing, The price continued to climb. So, when SembCorp announced again on 5 June that the sale discussion had begun, SembCorp's price jumped 2.9% to close at S$ 5.34 on that very dayGivenof the above, we are expecting SembCorp's price to drop around 2 – 3 % tomorrow.

Technical Analysis

Technically, we found SembCorp having great difficulties crossing over the T1 and T2 to make a higher high. The traders might be waiting for the result of the discussion on SembWaste disposal.

Since the disposal of SembWaste has been terminated, we will expect SembCorp's price to test S1 and maybe S2 too.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

8 July 2023

Yesterday, we saw traders continuing to sell SembCorp shares and ignoring JP Morgan’s unsupported assumption about SembCorp's earnings. This event was reported in the 7th July article. Yesterday's price action reflected that the traders were expecting a pathetic market to come ahead rather than worrying about SembCorp's performance.

Yesterday's price dropped to about S$5.12 which is shown as support S2 in the following chart. The price then recovered more than 2/3 of the morning drop and closed at S$5.31, just managed to recover the support at S1. This S$5.31 is 1.3% or 7 cents below yesterday’s closing price of S$5.38.

Because the price support at S$ 5.38 had been broken, SembCorp's market sentiment has now changed from bullish looking to slightly bearish looking. This is because the price is now closer to the trendline T1 as shown in the following chart.

If this trendline T1 support is to break for some reason, we would expect SembCorp to find lower lows, testing S3 and S4 before going down further.

On the other hand, we noted the strong recovery of Friday's price movement after hitting the TI trendline. It could be due to traders wanting and preparing to account for the hefty drop on 6th July caused by the unsupported assumption made by JP Morgan to set its target price.

Going forward, we hope the support S1 would hold. If SembCorp can break the resistance R1, we should see SembCorp attempting to make higher highs.

6 July 2023

SembCorp's price has broken the rising channel as described earlier on 4 July. The price fell 4.95% from yesterday's S$5.66 to S$5.39 or a total loss of S$0.28 in today's trade.

What had Happened?

The price took a tumble today because JP Morgan Singapore has set a target price of S4.50. JP Morgan said that SembCorp:

a) Is trading at 11 times its EBITDA;

b) Singapore's electricity tariff has peaked.

It claimed that Conventional power generation had contributed about 85% of SembCorp’s earnings, JP Morgan was convinced that SembCorp’s earnings would be significantly affected when Singapore revised the electricity tariff downwards. It has also been said that SembCorp’s price has risen more than 70% this year but it added that inclusion as a component in MSCI Singapore is a positive catalyst.

The attached was an extract from Sharejunction as the original JP Morgan report could not be located by googling

For the trading day, SembCorp’s price dropped sharply after the opening. It reached a low of S$5.30 momentarily just before noon and recovered to close at S$5.38 as shown in the attached.

About SembCorp’s Power Generation Portfolio

It is true that SembCorp’s income from Conventional Power generation like the Co-generation plant in Sakra, Singapore, is contributing roughly about 85 % of Sembcorp’s earnings. The breakdown is as shown in this picture extracted from SembCorp’s annual report 2022.

But SembCorp has under its management a total generating capacity of about 12,600 MW, of which 2,600 MW are renewable energy plants according to this Wikipedia. For the remaining 10,000 MW of conventional energy plants, SembCorp only has only two gas-fired cogeneration facilities (totaling 1,219 MW) in Jurong Island. Singapore.

In other words, the conventional energy plant in Sakra is contributing to a small part of SembCorp’s earnings in 2022. Therefore, JP Morgan’s reasoning about SembCorp’s earnings would be greatly affected when Singapore revises the electricity tariff cannot be entirely supported.

Technical Analysis

The following chart shows that SembCorp’s price has broken the resistance @ S$5.38. This resistance has now turned into support for tomorrow’s trading session. Therefore, if SembCorp’s price can stay above this S$5.38 support S1 from now on, there is a good chance for SembCorp to scale higher high and make an attempt to cover the candlestick gap G1.

4 July 2023

SembCorp Industries Pte Ltd (SCI) is one of the favorite hot stocks on the SGX Stock Exchange. It has almost doubled its price since the end of 2022, just before China reversed and ended its "Zero Covid policy.

Today, it has nearly recovered all its previous shines and it is poised to make an all-time high price as shown in this monthly chart

What the Brokers and Analysts Said?

Most broker houses and Analysts have a good rating for SCI with recent target price averages over S$6/= as shown in this picture from sgInvestor.io

The Recent Price Movement

SCI is technically bullish except for the recent fall caused by EMA's announcement about the Temporary Capacity Cap (TCP) on 19 June 2023. As most investors are not familiar with TCP, they sold their holdings probably on "Sell now ask later" mode to protect their capital. This caused SCI to lose a total of about S$0.52 or about 9% on 20 June 2023. When they realized on the next trading day that TCP did not have any material impact on SCI's operation, the price gradually recovered from S$5.15 to today's S$5.69-S$5.72.

Technical Analysis

The SCI's hourly Technical Chart is shown as follows.

The chart shows that the SCI price has been trapped in an up-rising channel. It has just broken the resistance S1 which has now turned to become the support. SCI will likely stay within the price channel until it breaks R1. As long as SCI's price can stay above the lower trend line (shown in red) and above the support S1, there is a good chance for SCI to break R1 and seek higher highs.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

SingTel (Z74.SI) Technical Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Wed, 26 Jul 2023 01:16:00 +0000

26 July 2023

SingTel had a tough time after reaching an all-time high of S$4.40 in the middle of 2015. The stock price then fell to a low of S$2.20 during the pandemic. This is a total discount of about 50% from its high.

SingTel suffered a large drop in price in 2015/2016 and then again in 2019. The drop in 2015/16, according to the analyst, was caused by the rising interest rates in Singapore as well as a fall in AUDSGD dragging down Optus's earnings. The fall in 2019 was caused definitely by the Pandemic.

Thereafter, SingTel's price was stable. It climbed as high as S$2.80 in the middle of 2020 before dropping to the present level of S$2.60 in recent weeks as shown in the following chart.

Technical Analysis

In the longer term, we are expecting SingTel to do a better job than before as shown in the following weekly chart.

This is because we are seeing SingTel's price rising its head above the Trendline T1. This indicates that SingTel is about to scale higher high. On its way up, we might expect some setbacks. But as long as the price can keep above Trend T1, we are expecting SingTel's price to go higher.

In the shorter term, we can also see SingTel's price not only rising above T1, but It has also escaped from the bearish rising wedge, W1, in the last 2 trading sessions. This provides an opportunity for traders to enter the market.

Going forward, we expect SingTel's price to test the resistance R1, R3, and R3. Resistance R1 appears to be a very strong resistance. We hope SingTel can recover its previous glory.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

Singapore Stock: Keppel Corporation Limited (SGX: BN4)

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sat, 22 Jul 2023 06:52:00 +0000

21 July 2023

Today, Keppel Corp’s trading price dropped from S$6.96 to S$6.79. This is a loss of S$0.17 or 2.44% from Thursday's closing price. It is the largest price drop in 2 weeks since 6 July.

The news today about the Keppel Fund has acquired a building in Seoul for an undisclosed sum must have been responsible for the drop in today's price.

About the Acquisition

This building acquired is in Seoul’s CBD area. According to Edge Magazine, it was the Bank of Korea’s Sogong Annex Facility in Seoul.

With this latest acquisition, Keppel claimed to have about 1.4 trillion Korean won ($1.5 billion) worth of deals in South Korea since 2021. The total assets in South Korea under its management (which includes the Samhwan Building and waste management company, Eco Management Korea Holdings) are now about 2.6 trillion Korean won or S$ 2.6 billion.

The Estimated Cost of the Acquisition

According to Google Search, Keppel Corp has made the following deals since 2021

a) The acquisition of Samhwan Building

This building was acquired in 2022 for a sum of about KRW220 billion ($228.7 million). It is located in the Jongno central business district in Seoul. It is a 15-story building that has a total gross floor area of 31,403 square meters.

b) The acquisition of Waste Management Company

Keppel claimed that it acquired it for a sum of KRW626.1 billion (approximately S$666.1 million) in August 2022.

c) The acquisition of the Sheraton Seoul D Cube

Keppel Investment Management, the South Korean arm of Keppel Capital Holdings, purchased Sheraton Seoul D Cube for KRW131.7 billion ($117.9 million) in Novermber 2021. It intended to turn the hotel into a commercial office building.

Therefore, one can roughly estimate that the Sogong Annex could have cost Keppel around S$480 million (S$1.5 billion - S$230 million - S$666 million - S$120 million) unless there are other acquisitions not found by googling.

Unit Cost of the Acquisition

If S$480 million and the gross floor area is 15,750 sq meters, the unit cost per sq meter for this acquisition will be S$30,000 per sq meter. This will be the most expensive building Keppel has purchased so far in Seoul.

In comparison, this building is more expensive than Singapore's Shenton House in CBD which has a unit cost of about S$13,000 per sq meter, In the details of a recent collective sale, the reserved price put up was S$600 million. The Shenton House building has a gross floor area of 48,000 sq meters.

However, we could not use this Singapore's unit measurement to judge if the unit price of Keppel's latest acquisition is expensive. We will explain more when we talk about the "takeaway".

The Locations of Buildings

The exact location of the Sogong Annex and Samhwan Building is shown in this Google map. Songang Annex is right in the center of the CBD area and very close to the Seoul Tower. It must be in the very prime area which demanded a higher unit price.

Why the Price Drop?

As the actual acquisition price of the building was undisclosed and most were not familiar with the property prices in South Korea to assess if the purchase price was fair and reasonable, many traders must have been working on the “sell first, talk later” mode to protect their capital.

Technical Analysis

The following chart shows that Keppel Price has almost broken the trendline T2 and was up and running to scale higher high until this news about the acquisition of the Seoul facility broke up on 21 July 2023. The news sent the Keppel price below Trendline T2 and is now preparing to test Trendline T1 again after bouncing from it on 7 July.

Going forward, we are expecting Keppel Price to test the support at S1 first. If S1 failed to hold, it will want to test again the support at T1.

The Takeaway

a) Price of Acquisition

The acquisition may be a bit frightening at first sight, especially when the price was undisclosed. The information was not properly and clearly articulated as to how such an acquisition could have affected Keppel’s future business.

There must be good reasons why Keppel decided to buy the Sogong Annex although it is much more expensive than the price of Samhwan Building which it acquired in December 2022. This is because the location of Sogong Annex is in a very prime area. It is just about 1.3 km from the Seoul Tower.

According to this Korean economic news, office building prices in downtown Seoul set a fresh record high in 2021. The highest unit price at that time surpassed KRW 40 million per one pyeong or 3.3 square meters. This is around S$120,000 per sq meter. This price is almost 4 times more than the S$30,000 per sq meter paid by Keppel for the Sogong Annex building as shown in the following table

b) The Assets under Management (AUM)

Presently, Keppel’s business is spreading across 6 areas of the Globe as can be seen from the following photo extracted from Keppel’s 2022 annual report

It can be readily deduced that these assets under management (AUM) in South Korea are just a small part that contributed very little towards the revenue of $6.6 billion in 2022. The biggest part of more than 80% comes from businesses in Singapore. Moreover, Keppel Capital presently has S$50 billion of Assets under its management (AUM) and they are working toward a target of S$200 billion of AUM. The S$480 million for this acquisition of Sogong Annex is less than 1.0% of the S$50 billion of AUM.

c) The Office Rental Price in Seoul

Although the housing market in South Korea was not as rosy as before and the price of housing properties has dropped since 2022, there are reports that the price had stabilized in June as buying of properties in Seoul improved.

As for the office rentals, the latest report from Cushman & Wakefield said that the good office space vacancy in Q2 remained steady at 2.6% and the average monthly rental continued to rise at a rate of 1.2% YOY and 8.4% QOQ.

d) Properties Sold with Gains

Keppel was able to make money from the property business in Seoul in the past few years after acquiring and value-adding the 3 Grade A buildings in Seoul in 2019. They sold the 3 buildings away in 2021 for a handsome profit.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we do not foresee the acquisition of the Sogong Annex will have much material impact on the coming earnings of Keppel Corp. Also, we cannot conclude that the price of the latest acquisition of the Sogong Annex by Keppel is expensive.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

9 July 2023

In the article dated 5 July, we wrote about Keppel’s price being trapped in a rising expanding bearish wedge as shown in this weekly chart.

Since then, the price has been further developed when we revisited it on 7 July.

(Note: Corrected using adjusted price. The original chart using investing.com was not adjusted for distribution in Specie of Sembcorp Marine share)

We can see from the newer chart that Keppel’s price is about the test the trendline support T3 very soon. If it can bounce from this trendline support T3, Keppel's price can be very bullish.

On the other hand, if the price took a turn for the worst for some unknown reasons, and the prices were to break the trendline support T3, things could turn ugly. Trading after that can be very volatile especially when the trading volume is large at a time when it breaks the trendline. This is because the trendline T3 is one very strong support. It is a Head and Shoulder line. When that happened, we would expect Keppel's price wanting to go lower lows.

In the daily chart as shown below, we saw the price has broken the orange T2 trendline. It has turned trading sentiment bearish and traders are expected to bring the price down to test the strong Trendline T3 as discussed earlier.

Going forward, we hope Keppel's price can bounce after hitting the trendline support T3. This is because many broker houses have higher targets. In addition, Keppel has signed recently to work together with Petronas Malaysia's Gentari to develop renewable energy projects. Presently, Malaysia has an ambitious renewable energy target, aiming to reach 70% of renewables in the power mix by 2050. This target is slightly bigger than the target set by Indonesia which is 2/3 power mix by 2050.

5 July 2023

Keppel Corporation Limited (SGX: BN4), in short, KepCorp, is one of the pioneer companies in the SGX exchange. It was incorporated on 03 Aug 1968 and listed in SGX on 24 October 1980. The group was originally in the offshore and marine engineering and construction services. It has now expanded to become a global investment holding and management company and the operator of infrastructure, power stations, district cooling, and other business like real estate in Singapore as well as in many other countries like China and Malaysia.

Present Price Trend

KepCorp has a bullish trend at the moment. This weekly chart shows that It has broken the red trendline in early 2022. This red trendline has been trapping KepCorp's price movement for the last 8 years since 2014. KepCorp's price is now moving in an uprising and expanding wedge, enclosing by trendline T2 and T3 as shown.

(Note: Corrected using adjusted price. The original chart using investing.com was not adjusted for distribution in Specie of Sembcorp Marine share)

StockTarget Date

KepCorp is presently trading in SGX for about S$6.60 per share. The target price of most broker houses and analysts is in the range of S$7 to S$9 as shown in this sgInvestor picture.

Present Stock Movement

KepCorp's price is presently trapped in an up-rising channel as shown in the following daily chart. It has a resistance (R1) at S$7.11 and a supporting price (S1) at S$ 6.53. We expect YZJ will move within the channel marked as T1 and T2. If KepCorp's price can break T1, we should see higher high prices; otherwise, we should expect the price to move lower.

For information, we have also found an additional trendline that might show how the price will move in the shorter term. This trendline, marked in orange, will guide the price movement in the meantime. If the price were to break below this orange trendline, we should expect KepCorp to test the support at S$ 6.23 (S2)

The Candlestick Gap

Just like SembCorp Industries, KepCorp has a price shock on 19 June 2023 when EMA announced a temporary power cap for power generation in Singapore. In this event, KepCorp has created a candlestick gap in the 60-minute chart as shown in the following chart. In addition to the gap created on 16 June 2023 for the removal of Keppel DC REIT from the Straits Times Index (STI), KepCorp has a total of 2 candlestick gaps to cover.

As these gaps are not "runaway gaps" and not created because of significant events happening in KepCorp, they will be filled soon according to the textbooks. Therefore, we are expecting KepCop's price to move up to cover these gaps in a matter of time.

Stock Market Performance

KepCorp's stock price was not performing as well as its peers like SembCorp industries. This can be seen from how the price recovered after the recent fall caused by EMA's temporary price cap announcement.

SembCorp Industries's price has almost recovered whereas KepCop's price is still hovering below. This is despite the broker houses and Analysts having given equal ratings as they gave the same to SembCorp.

The main reason could be that KepCorp was more exposed to China. As a result, it has reported a deeper-than-expected drop in net profit for the year 2022. Its net profit dropped to S$927 million ($709.91 million) for the year ended Dec. 31, from S$1.02 billion a year ago. But its 1Q 2023 quarterly result was better than expected prompting many analysts to upgrade their ratings.

The market traders, however, have different views especially after it was reported that China's economic recovery rate was not as good as expected.

Hence, Going forward, we do not expect KepCorp's prices to leap and bounce like SembCorp did unless KepCorp can reduce its exposure in China or China has improved its economic outlook in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

Singapore Airlines (SGX:C6L) Technical Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sun, 16 Jul 2023 00:17:00 +0000

16 July 2023

In the last post on 8 July 2023, we said that the SIA price was forming another Flag. This Flag2 has now been completed as shown in the following chart.

If the SIA price can pierce through the top of the flag pole (colored green), we might see the SIA price makes attempts to cover the candlestick gap created on 30 July.

About the Candlestick Gap

When Temasek Holdings sold away 400 million shares on 30 July, it created a candlestick gap with a price drop of S$0.35 or 5% as shown in the following chart

This gap is not only large but also has a trading volume of 85 million shares. This share volume was about 13 times the average 100-day trading volume. It is definitely a “runaway” candlestick gap.

According to the textbooks, a “runaway” candlestick would usually take months or years to fill. Those interested to know more about runaway candlestick can find more detail here

Why are They Selling?

SIA has been performing rather well after the end of the pandemic. In 2022, It has posted the highest net profit in its entire 76 years of operation. Some traders have expected the 1Q2023 earnings to be even higher. Then why are the big players selling?

Earlier on, we posted that the broker houses and the analysts expected

a) A tapering in the number of air passengers, leading to a decline in earnings.

b) The SIA to spend

1) Billions to redeem the mandatory convertible bonds (MCB) they raised in March/April 2020.

2) A lot to renew its aircraft fleet, plus

c) The SIA to allocate funds for the merger of the Vistara/Air India group.

One other reason that has not been speculated so far is whether the SIA price has been running up too quickly too fast in 2023.

Is SIA Price Running Too Quickly Too Fast?

Presently, the World’s 5 best airlines in 2023 are

1. Singapore Airline

2. Qatar Airways

3. ANA All Nippon Airways

4. Emirates

5. Japan Airlines

Except for Qatar Airways which is 100% Qatar Government owned, the rest of the airlines are listed companies where we can compare their stock prices.

It can be seen from the following chart and the table that SIA price has indeed been running way ahead among the airlines for the last 6 months in 2023. Its price has more than doubled the prices of other airlines

Going forward, we would expect very strong resistance for the SIA price to break the top of Flag2. It would be even harder for SIA shares to cover the candlestick gap unless the big players can reverse their earlier decision and decide to enter the market again. Breaking up the resistances can only happen soon if the SIA's 1Q 2023 results to be announced on 27 July are so unbelievably good, prompting players like Temasek Holding to regret and to buy back the SIA shares.

8 July 2022

In the past week after Temasek Holding sold 400 million SIA shares and after 3 or 4 broker houses and analysts downgraded SIA had set a target price of S$6.80, the SIA prices have been going strong as shown in this stock chart.

We can clearly see that the market wasn’t ready to send SIA down immediately. The SIA prices have defied and made an attempt, trying to recover from when the prices closed up from a one-month low of S$7.15 on 30 June to S$ 7.32. The price gained about 2.3% for the week.

Isn't the Price going down to S$6.80?

No one can tell at the moment as this has not happened yet. There is nothing concrete about the target price set by the broker houses/Analysts. The price could change due to traders' sentiment and prevailing news. Temasek Holdings can also make the price jump again for example.

This technical chart is showing exactly the situation.

The SIA price is presently raising its head above the trendline T1. It is ready to head higher as long as it can stay above this trendline T1. However, we are spotting another bearish flag being formed. It is marked as flag 2. This flag would take the SIA price higher to about S$ 7.40 before touching the flag top and before deciding if it is going to go down again.

Can the Bearish Flag Pattern Fail?

There is nothing concrete about the result of any kind of analysis. This is especially for stock Technical Analysis. They can only be used for reference.

Technical Analysis is only telling us that there is a possibility or there is a potential. They cannot tell us about the minds of the traders and what they are going to do next.

There are many examples one can find on the Net about how Technical Analysis had failed; for example, a bearish flag can turn out to be a bullish flag in the end.

Here is one textbook example This webpage is giving us some advice on how to spot a bearish or bullish flag and how to trade when that happened.

How to Spot a Failed Flag Pattern?

The textbook has this to say:

A properly formed flag would have the following features:

1. 1. Trading volume should increase just before the flag is formed;

2. 2. Trading volume should then decrease while the flag is being formed;

3. 3. The price should touch the top of the pole for a bearish flag or vice versa to complete the flag; finally and most importantly;

4. 4. The volume must increase again when the price breaks the lower flag pole for a bearish flag or the upper flag pole for a bullish flag.

The SIA price pattern fits exactly these descriptions for a bearish flag to be formed.

Going forward, traders are advised to be on alert and watch how the price form the bearish flag.

8 July 2023

Singapore Tourist Arrivals 2023

The tourist arrivals to Singapore were around 1.1 million for June 2023 as shown in the attached picture. This figure has been maintained over the last 3 months and doubled over the year as compared to 543,000 in June 2022. The Singapore Tourism Board (STB) has predicted that Tourist Arrivals to Singapore would be in the range of 12 to 14 million in 2023. To date, tourist arrivals to Singapore have risen to 12.59 million, which is an increase of about 586% YOY.

30 June 2023

Temasek Holdings Selling $400 million worth of SIA shares

This news about Temasek Holdings selling SIA shares has caused Singapore Airlines (SIA) share price to tumble and lost 4.76% or S$0.35 per share today. It has also formed a glaring candlestick gap as shown in the following chart.

Temasek Holdings explained that it is always their routine "to reshape and rebalance their portfolio so that they can deliver sustainable returns over a longer term." Temasek Holdings also said it would continue to be a significant shareholder in SIA with a 53.5 percent stake.

While some market investors and traders have taken this reason for granted and expected the SIA stock to return to its former shine, many others were trying to understand why Temasek Holdings was selling those SIA shares especially when the SIA share prices were so bullish lately.

What are the Reasons to Sell?

The following reasons were speculated. Temasek Holdings was:

1. Taking a profit;

2. Expecting a decline in the SIA’s earnings or

3. Diversifying and channeling profits for another business

The SIA Rights Issues

In March/April 2020, Temasek Holdings took up about 986 million rights shares issued by SIA. Then the right issue was S$3/= per issue. In addition, Temasek Holdings has also taken up S$1.94 billion of mandatory convertible bonds (MCBs).

For this reason, some netizens claimed that Temasek Holdings could earn a tidy profit of over S$1.8 billion by selling away 400 million shares. But this reason could not hold water because Temasek Holdings' remaining 53.5 % stake would be severely affected by the stock sale. Therefore, the better reasons would be point (2) or (3) with point (2) being more likely.

The Brokers' and Analysts' Analysis

Some brokers and Analysts have turned more cautious lately about buying SIA shares. They expected a tapering in the number of air passengers, leading to a decline in earnings. They also expected SIA to spend billions to redeem the mandatory convertible bonds (MCB) they raised in March/April 2020. Furthermore, SIA was also expected to spend a lot to renew its aircraft fleet plus they would have to allocate funds for the merger of the Vistara/Air India group.

As a result, many Brokers and Analysts have called to downgrade the ratings of SIA stock. For example, PhillipCapital has reduced SIA's target price to S$6.80 while DBS has downgraded SIA to ‘hold’ with the same target price of $6.80. POEM also reduced its ratings and target price

Example of what would happen?

A good and similar example is when Temasek Holdings sold about 3% or 62 million shares on 11 March 2012 or 12 years ago. That stock sale reduced Temasek Holdings' stake in Sembcorp Marine Ltd (SM) (S51.SG) from 63.95% to 60.91%. Then SM's stock price was about S$3.05 (adjusted price). The sale caused the price to drop 5% on the next trading day and a candlestick gap was formed as shown in the following chart. This candlestick gap was covered within the next 2 weeks. The price then fluctuated between S$2.30 and S$3.00 for the next 6 months. It dropped by 7.7% in November when SM reported a 48% fall in the net profit for 2Q 2012.

What is the Takeaway?

In the SM example, Temasek Holdings might have done its due diligence and found SM would have a bad 2Q report. Temasek Holdings could reap a tidy profit of S$49 million without losing a single share if they were to buy and replenish back the 62 million shares after the 7.7% drop in November 2012.

Would the SM's example repeat in SIA?

The example might be repeated in SIA. In fact, it could be repeated again and again anywhere.

Let's examine the SIA's stock chart closely. The chart is showing that SIA stock has formed a bearish flag as marked in red. This flag has a target price of S$6.86 according to the technical books. And this S$6.86 also happened to be a strong "technical support" for the SIA stock. It is also the target prices of the 3 brokers/Analysts that were quoted earlier. Like the SM example, the SIA price might have a leg down to find solid support at around S $ 6.80. It is also very likely the candlestick gap formed today would be filled sooner or later.

Whether the SIA would have a bad 2Q or the 3Q report in 2023 like SM in 2012 would be anybody's guess. But it would be advisable for investors to be cautious and do the necessary due diligence before buying or loading more SIA shares.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

ISDN

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 11:03:00 +0000

10 July 2023

CGS-CIMB, a broker house in Singapore downgraded ISDN to 'reduce' holding on 27 June 2023. They gave a target price of S$0.37. This target price is about 32% lower than the highest closing price of S$55 on 20 June. They were of the view that China's performance will be weak in the coming months. An excerpt of the CIMB report can be found here. It was also summarised in this article.

According to TradingView, ISDN derived about 65% of its revenue from China as shown in the following graph.

As a result, ISDN's share price dropped 9.7% or S$ 0.05 from S$0.515 to S$0.465 on 28 June. It then dropped for the next few trading days to close at S$0.435 on 7 June, about 15% down since the day the counter was downgraded. The price dropped further on poor market sentiment and ended with a price of S$4.35 on 10 July 2023, about 20% down from its recent peak on 20 June 2023.

A question remains as to whether ISDN would go as low as S$ 0.37 as predicted by CGS-CIMB or it would bound and recover quickly from this nasty fall.

About ISDN

ISDN Holdings Ltd is a Singapore company specializing in the provision of automation solutions and services ranging from precision components and engineering services. It provides also specialized Engineering Solutions, Industrial Computing Solutions, and Other services. Off late, it has ventured into renewable energy solutions. A mini-hydro power plant (10 MW) in Lau Biang, Indonesia was completed and commissioned in December 2022. Recently, it said it has obtained permission to commission another 2 mini-hydropower plants in Anggoci (10 MW) and Sisira (4.6 MW), Indonesia. Earlier on, it has associated with a firm called AEnergy which has operated a few hydropower plants elsewhere in Indonesia Presently, the ISDN is still holding about 67% of the stocks in AEnergy according to the 2022 annual report.

About Hydro Power Plant

For those who are not familiar with Hydro Power Plant, here is one good article to read. In short, hydropower can provide a low-cost electricity and green solution as compared to other sources of energy.

Can Hydro Power Help the Bottom Line?

The answer is definitely a yes.

When the ISDN's first hydropower project in Lau Biang was completed and in operation during December 2022, ISDN claimed that this Lau Biang plant would add about 18.5% to the group earnings based on 2022 earnings. This earning is worked out to be around S$2.5 million per year based on the S$15 million annual earnings reported on February 2023 . The Lau Biang plant is 10 MW and the 2 extra plants in Anggoci and Sisira will add another 14.6 MW.

By mathematical proportion, It is estimated that the 3 plants will add another S$5 million per year toward the earnings of ISDN. But, there is always a "but" for reasons to be explained.

Reasons

1. Hydro Power Plant constructions are Capital Intensive

Hydro Power Plants are cost-effective projects but a worthwhile investment. It unit cost of development is more than US$2000 per KW. This is almost twice as much as compared to the fossil fuel power plant.

In the US and in other countries where electricity tariff is moderately high, the hydropower plants would have an internal rate of return (IRR) of more than 14%. The payback period is usually within 10 years. But in Indonesia where the electricity tariff is kept low. around US$0.09 per Kwh, the internal rate of return (IRR) is usually less than 10% and the payback period could exceed 10 years.

2. There are certain risks in hydropower plant investment in Indonesia

a) The Government could change the policies under political pressure. Not too long ago in 2020, they put a capacity cap on how much hydropower plants can generate and they buy the excess power only at half price.

b) The power generated is assumed to be sold PLN, the local electricity board. PLN has a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) that could restrict the sale and change the selling price. This selling price is generally about 85% of the tariff.

The other investment risks are covered in this article.

Technical Analysis

Technically, we are seeing ISDN trapped in a downward channel which is supposed to be bullish going ahead when the price can break the resistance trendline T1. The CIMB target price of S$0.37 is very close to the support at S1 according to the following weekly chart.

If we zero into the daily chart, we could see that the ISDN price is bouncing between the channel labeled T1D and T2D at the moment. It has broken up but was forced back into the channel by the CIMB price downgrade.

Going ahead, we are expected to see the price to stay within the channel. For information, T2D, marked in red, is one very strong support; breaking it can cause volatile trades. if this T2D support is broken, the ISDN price will want to test the support S1 as shown in the above weekly chart.

The Candlestick Gap

There are 2 candlestick gaps spotted in the ISDN chart. One happened to be on 27 February 2023 and the other, recently, on 28 June 2023.

The one on 27 Feb was created by the ISDN's report about a 42% falls in the annual net profit; the one on 28 June was caused by downgrades from CIMB.

On both occasions, the trading volume on the day was over 5 times the 100-day average daily volume. This volume is significantly large.

According to some textbooks, they can be classified as runaway gaps. It might take months or years to fill.

As these gaps are earning-related, the gaps could be filled if ISDN can produce a good earning report to convince the investors. The next half yearly result would be around September 2023. Hopefully by then, there will be good earning news.

Put/Call Ratio As an Trading Indicator

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Wed, 05 Jul 2023 00:13:00 +0000

4 July 2023

Put/Call Options in the US market have been used by investors to hedge their investments in equity and other markets. For example, when investors invest heavily in stocks, they might want to buy some put options to mitigate their risks and vice versa. Because of this purpose, we often see call-and-put options being used to chart the market direction.

We can find the daily trading of Put/Call options in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). This is their webpage. We can also find many websites giving free Put/Call Ratio charts; for example, this chart is in StockChart.

Unfortunately, these charts are only able to tell us the present and not the future trend. For example, the above chart is telling us that the equity market is getting stronger because the Put/Call ratio is trending slightly downward. It cannot tell us if this trend will continue.

Trending the Future

To look at the future trend, we should expand the chart as shown. We could clearly see the trend from the following chart:

The Chart is now able to tell us not only the present trend but also the trend in the coming future. It can also tell us roughly when to buy and hold or when to sell the equity.

For added clarity, we could remove the daily wiggling line and then add in the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages (MA) as shown in the following chart. This new chart will tell when to buy or sell. That is, we should start to buy when the 20 and 50 MA is staying consistently below the 200 MA; otherwise, we should start to sell.

The most rewarding time is when the 200-day moving average is trending downward like in early 2020.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.

US Stock Movements

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sun, 21 Aug 2022 07:07:00 +0000

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23 Aug 2022 20 Aug 2022

23 August 2022

DOW started its descent with a "bang" of more than 600 points yesterday after breaking the red trendline. It has also broken the Support1 which was not marked earlier. In addition, it has created a new candlestick Gap3 as shown.

With the creation of Gap3, the following options become available:

1. Cover up Gap 3 immediately;

2. Cover up Gap 1 before covering Gap 3;

3. Proceed to cover up Gap1, and test the other supports to cover Gap2 before coming back up to cover Gap 3;.

From the observations of the other trending charts, it would appear that the traders were creating Gap3 for the purpose of returning back after having covered Gap2. Also, if they wanted to cover Gap3, they would have already done so during the trading session.

The observations also support option 3 to be a likely trading option at the moment unless another incident like the "2008 Lehman Brothers" event were to happen again.

20 August 2022

The US stock has reached the overbought region and is ready to make a descent. The descent will start as soon as DOW breaks the red trend line as shown. Thereafter, it will try to cover gap 1 and test the support @32,387 as shown.

How Best to tell if Market has really Bottomed?

noreply@blogger.com (skyjuiceiswater) — Sat, 20 Aug 2022 01:54:00 +0000

18 August 2022

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This is presently the most pressing question that many would want an answer to. Some chartists speculated that the present US market trend is just like in 2008 when the market is expected to undergo another downtrend or drop before it can recover.

Some went as far back to draw charts and superimpose the charts of 1937, 2000, 2008, and 2022 to prove their points. This article will show how the market has really bottomed and if we should enter the market now.

When will Market Bottom?

The market often considered to have bottomed when there are more than 80% of the stocks hit their 200MA as predicted earlier on 26 July 2022

What if This Happens Again?

The market may cause a secondary bottom and collapse again like it had happened on September 15, 2008, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. On that very day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 4.5%, the largest since the 911 Terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York on September 11, 2001.

How to Tell if such a thing will happen again?

To know how to tell, please click the "Reveal" button to see the next chart.

This chart shows that there were 2 events that caused the market failures and did not recover after the market stock hit the 200MA baseline. These 2 events are:

a) Lehman Brother Event (Marked Event 1 in the Chart)

Before the Lehman Brothers event, the market was running on another track in 2007 as shown. The stocks hit the 200MA around March 2008 & recovered. When Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, the market hit the 200MA again. This time, it went really down under, changing also its course to run on a new track as shown.

b) The Covid 19 (Marked Event 2 in the chart)

This event started by Fed's QT in 2018/19. The market recovered after stocks hit the 200MA in 2019 but it was soon spooked by the Covid19 break out in China. The secondary bottom appeared only after the US Government started up the 3 Trillion USD Covid Stimulus packages in March 2020.

In Conclusion

If there is a similar happening like Lehman Brothers appears this time, it is likely to do exactly the same. It will run down and break the red trend line as shown before recovering. It might also run on an entirely different track like 2008/09 if the secondary bottom were to be as bad as the Lehman Brothers event.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and study to make their own investment decisions.