First let’s review the play. Miami is three seconds away from going to the NBA Finals, they just need to get one more stop against Boston. As the play is being set up, Max Strus is not defending the inbound passer, White. Instead Erik Spoelstra is using him as a second defender to deny. Jayson Tatum from getting a catch.

That allows White to make an easy pass to Marcus Smart for the shot attempt. But more importantly it has given White a free run to crash the glass as Strus cannot go from denying Tatum near half court and recovering to White for the box out. The rest is history.

This decision from Spoelstra has put the Heat on the brink of being the first NBA team to ever blow a 3-0 lead.

Below is the post from earlier in the year.

Defend the Inbounder

Nothing drives me more insane than teams at the end of games leaving the inbounder wide open at the end of games. Too many teams have allowed the inbounder a free look to make the pass. 

The idea of not defending the inbounder allows the defense to defend the play with an extra man. That extra-man defender can double anyone coming up for the ball and limit options for the inbounding team.

There is just one issue with this concept; it takes all the pressure off the inbounder. It allows the passer to place the pass just perfectly. There are several examples of the inbounder not being defended which has led open shots at the end of games. 

Take a look at this game-winner Joel Embiid hit in the playoffs against the Toronto Raptors. Fred VanVleet started defending the ball but was called back to sit in the paint by Nick Nurse. This allowed Danny Green to see the whole play unfold, and had a clear passing lane to Embiid for the game-winner. 

The Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks recently played a game down to the wire, and both teams played the end-of-game inbound entirely differently. First, the Mavs had Luka Doncic turn his back to the ball, and it looked like he was to take anyone that came his way. The problem for the Mavs is that the Bucks set up a backpick lob play for Brook Lopez. You can see on the replay there is zero pressure on the passer as Doncic does not move at all while George Hill drops a pinpoint pass. 

On the Mavs’ next possession, the Bucks not only put someone on the inbounder, but they also put seven-foot Lopez on the job. The goal was to ensure no clear lines of sight. The ball still gets inbounded to Doncic, but Spencer Dinwiddie has to put some air on the pass, throwing off the timing a hair and allowing Jrue Holiday to recover. 

Not defending the inbounder was a prevailing theme at the end of the Golden State Warriors-Detroit Pistons game. Down three, Steve Kerr drew up a great play but pay attention to Bojan Bogdanovic’s defense against Ty Jerome, the inbounder. He started three feet behind the line and then turned his back to the passer. This allowed Jerome to throw a perfect pass to Anthony Lamb, who hit Klay Thompson for the three. 

But the very next day, Kevon Looney fell for the same trap. He was defending the ball, then shaded toward the sideline as Bogdanovic was running that way. Looney never squared back up, so Killian Hayes had a clear passing lane when Saddiq Bey ran up from the baseline and hit the game-winner. It was a tough shot to make, but it was an easy pass to make. 

Yes, teams will score game-winners even with someone defending the inbounder, but why should the defense make it easier for the offense? Putting someone on the ball will at least add to the degree of difficulty. 

Please don’t take my word for it. Grant Hill threw one of the most incredible passes in the Men’s NCAA Final Four history. He threw a long bomb to Christian Laettner for a game-winning shot for the Duke Blue Devils. Notice that Kentucky elected not to put a defender on the ball. 

Hill reminisced about the play with Thomas O’Toole and said, “I was surprised I had such a good view of Christian. I got a clean shot of him”. The lesson should have been learned, but it has not stuck with everyone.

In 2009, the Los Angeles Lakers took game one of the conference finals against the Denver Nuggets by putting Lamar Odom on the inbounder. It forced Anthony Carter to lob up the pass and bought time for Trevor Ariza to come up with a huge steal for the game. 

Please, coaches, put a man on the inbounder. 

Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men’s national team. Follow him on Twitter,@MoDakhil_NBA. 

There is a lot of good things going on in the NBA but every team could use a little advice. This definitely just one person’s opinion and completely unsolicited.

This week’s advice column will feature Xs and Os help for the struggling Atlanta Hawks. A bit of wisdom for coaches to use at the end of close games.

Atlanta Hawks’ Offense

I am aware that that the Atlanta Hawks are coming off a win and scored 120 points but their offense is largely predictable. Good teams will be prepared, especially in the playoffs should Atlanta make it.

When the Atlanta Hawks made the trade for Dejounte Murray in the offseason, it made perfect sense, in theory. Murray would help shore up the Hawks’ perimeter defense and give Trae Young another teammate who can be a playmaker. Freeing up that pressure on Young would allow him to play more freely. But theory does not always come through in practice. 

The Hawks are below 500, but more shocking than anything else is that fact their offensive rating is in the twenties. Atlanta has so much offensive talent, but they are not maximizing it. 

The offense has devolved into a game of Young’s turn, then Murray’s turn. When Young has the ball, Murray is often found standing around the three-point line, where he is a 34.6 percent shooter, and some teams will not be afraid to leave to help in the paint. 

Young often stands several feet off the line when the roles are switched. He does pull a defender away because of his shooting threat despite shooting 31.1 percent from deep this year. Ultimately Young is not an active participant when he is off the ball. 

None of this mentions that the “offense” the Hawks run has marginalized John Collins. Over the past three seasons, his field goal attempts per game have decreased steadily from 12.2 to 11.9 to 10.1 attempts this year. 

The Hawks need to transform their offense and build an actual structure. They need to get more actions with multiple players playing off each other instead of standing around and watching. A few simple actions can involve two, if not three players. 

This might be a tall order for Nate McMillan, who is not known for being a creative mind. But coaches are known for stealing from each other. McMillan should swipe a few pages from Mike D’Antoni’s Phoenix Suns and even Rick Adelman’s Sacramento Kings playbooks. 

PISTOL ACTION

McMillan can look at the Pistol actions the seven seconds or less Suns ran a ton. Bringing the ball up with pace, Young can kick ahead to Murray, run off him for a hand-off and receive a ball screen from Collins. Murray can hold onto the ball and come off the Collins screen. It could be interchangeable as well. The Hawks could run this with Bogdon Bogdanovic and DeAndre Hunter as the guards and Clint Capela or Oneyka Okongwu at the big man position. 

Add-ons, like double-screens, flares, and staggered pin-downs, could be run on the weak side. But a pistol base can put pressure on defenses as long as the Hawks play with pace. 

ELBOW GAME

The last time the Kings made the playoffs, Adelman was running sets from the elbow with guys Chris Webber, Peja Stojakovic, Jason Williams, and Vlade Divac driving defenses insane. The key would be Collins being able to be the facilitator from the elbow. 

It is simple, enter the ball into the elbow and play a two-man game between Young and Murray. It opens the door to back cuts, fake the action, and immediately comes off Collins for a hand-off. There are a plethora of options a team like the Hawks can cycle through. 

Atlanta has enough talent to compete in the NBA. They are two years away from making a run to the Eastern Conference Finals (you can debate flukey or not) but have yet to be able to build on it. They need to change their offense to be more inclusive and with more movement. That will require buy-in from Young; if they can’t get that, they should consider finding a new face of the franchise. 

Defend the Inbounder

Nothing drives me more insane than teams at the end of games leaving the inbounder wide open at the end of games. Too many teams have allowed the inbounder a free look to make the pass. 

The idea of not defending the inbounder allows the defense to defend the play with an extra man. That extra-man defender can double anyone coming up for the ball and limit options for the inbounding team.

There is just one issue with this concept; it takes all the pressure off the inbounder. It allows the passer to place the pass just perfectly. There are several examples of the inbounder not being defended which has led open shots at the end of games. 

Take a look at this game-winner Joel Embiid hit in the playoffs against the Toronto Raptors. Fred VanVleet started defending the ball but was called back to sit in the paint by Nick Nurse. This allowed Danny Green to see the whole play unfold, and had a clear passing lane to Embiid for the game-winner. 

The Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks recently played a game down to the wire, and both teams played the end-of-game inbound entirely differently. First, the Mavs had Luka Doncic turn his back to the ball, and it looked like he was to take anyone that came his way. The problem for the Mavs is that the Bucks set up a backpick lob play for Brook Lopez. You can see on the replay there is zero pressure on the passer as Doncic does not move at all while George Hill drops a pinpoint pass. 

On the Mavs’ next possession, the Bucks not only put someone on the inbounder, but they also put seven-foot Lopez on the job. The goal was to ensure no clear lines of sight. The ball still gets inbounded to Doncic, but Spencer Dinwiddie has to put some air on the pass, throwing off the timing a hair and allowing Jrue Holiday to recover. 

Not defending the inbounder was a prevailing theme at the end of the Golden State Warriors-Detroit Pistons game. Down three, Steve Kerr drew up a great play but pay attention to Bojan Bogdanovic’s defense against Ty Jerome, the inbounder. He started three feet behind the line and then turned his back to the passer. This allowed Jerome to throw a perfect pass to Anthony Lamb, who hit Klay Thompson for the three. 

But the very next day, Kevon Looney fell for the same trap. He was defending the ball, then shaded toward the sideline as Bogdanovic was running that way. Looney never squared back up, so Killian Hayes had a clear passing lane when Saddiq Bey ran up from the baseline and hit the game-winner. It was a tough shot to make, but it was an easy pass to make. 

Yes, teams will score game-winners even with someone defending the inbounder, but why should the defense make it easier for the offense? Putting someone on the ball will at least add to the degree of difficulty. 

Please don’t take my word for it. Grant Hill threw one of the most incredible passes in the Men’s NCAA Final Four history. He threw a long bomb to Christian Laettner for a game-winning shot for the Duke Blue Devils. Notice that Kentucky elected not to put a defender on the ball. 

Hill reminisced about the play with Thomas O’Toole and said, “I was surprised I had such a good view of Christian. I got a clean shot of him”. The lesson should have been learned, but it has not stuck with everyone.

In 2009, the Los Angeles Lakers took game one of the conference finals against the Denver Nuggets by putting Lamar Odom on the inbounder. It forced Anthony Carter to lob up the pass and bought time for Trevor Ariza to come up with a huge steal for the game. 

Please, coaches, put a man on the inbounder. 

Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men’s national team. Follow him on Twitter,@MoDakhil_NBA. 

Stats are from NBA.com/stats and play diagrams from Fastmodel Sports

The Warriors were the more physical team, even too physical at times. On the very first play of the game when the ball was swung to Al Horford, Draymond Green got right into his body and forced a jump ball. 

Golden State got going from there, in particular Stephen Curry who dropped 29 points going 5-12 from three in just 32 minutes. His presence on the court caused problems for the Celtics’ defense. A great example of Curry’s gravity came on a play when he cut through the lane and two Celtics went with him while Green found Kevon Looney for a bucket. 

he Warriors blew the game open in the third quarter. They held the Celtics to just 14 points while dropping 35 points of their own. Ime Udoka made a smart decision to pull the plug early in the fourth quarter to rest his players and get ready for the next one. 

With the series tied at one apiece and the scene shifting to Boston it is time to look at what the Celtics need to do to defend home court in game three.  

The Celtics’ Offense

Boston’s offense can be a difficult one to analyze at times. With top talents like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, it is expected to feature some one-on-one. When they are making shots it looks incredible but when those shots do not go down it is a problem. 

Brown’s explosion in the first quarter and Tatum’s entire half is what the Celtics offense looks like when it is pretty one-on-one based and they are hitting shots. Brown got the Celtics rolling going 4-6 from the field and 3-4 from three for 13 points. 

Tatum was on fire in the first half with 21 points, 15 of those coming from the three-point line. He had everything going, especially his side-step threes. Tatum hit one on Curry and a second on Andrew Wiggins in early offense. These are not bad shots. they have become a go-to shot for Tatum. But they are not great shots. 

Brown started to cool off after the first quarter and never got back on track. He went 1-11 for the rest of the game and Green locked him up. 

The second half was not kind to Tatum either, as the Warriors ramped up their defensive intensity on him. They denied him catches, forced him to play on the perimeter by showing more help and just took the ball out of his hands. 

The Celtics need more possessions with both ball and player movement, like this one. They get the ball into the paint early, a kick-out and then a swing to Brown for the open three. This play puts more pressure on the Warriors defense. 

The shot profile from those two players actually highlights a much larger problem for the Celtics. They are not getting enough shots at the rim. According to Cleaning the Glass, Boston has taken just 11 field goals and drew seven fouls at the rim*. Three shots and two fouls were called at the rim in game two alone. Compare that with the 30 shots and 10 fouls drawn at the rim in the two regular season games this season against Golden State. 

Boston has lived by the three through the playoffs. 45.7 percent of their shot attempts have been threes. That number has climbed to 47.1 percent in the Finals. Now to be fair, the Celtics are shooting three-ball incredibly well at 46.2 percent from three. 

But you know the the old adage: live by the three, die by the three. In the second half of game two Boston shot 27.8 percent from three. There will be another game that Boston won’t be able to buy a three, and they will have to find a way to get more shots at the rim. 

Getting more ball movement will open up more opportunities for the Celtics at the rim. 

The possession below is a great example. In early offense the Celtics got the ball to Grant Williams in the post, he swung it to Derrick White in the opposite corner who hit Marcus Smart who drove into the paint, finding Williams in the dunker spot for one of the few buckets at the rim the Celtics got in game two.

As for the second adjustment, the Celtics’ have to cut down on their turnovers and in particular their live-ball turnovers. They had 19 turnovers in game two, 15 of them were live-ball turnovers. The challenge about those live turnovers, it allows the opponents to attack in transition and early offense. The Warriors finished game two with 33 points off turnovers. This has been a problem all playoffs long for Boston. They have led all playoff teams in live-ball turnovers and it has crushed them in those games.

Boston needs to get their offense back on the tracks, running more sets for more movement, try to get more attempts at the rim, and most importantly take care of the ball in game three to take the first game in Boston. 

*Cleaning the Glass numbers exclude garbage time and halfcourt heaves. 

Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men’s national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA. 

It looked shaky at first. The Celtics were unable to figure out how to defend Stephen Curry, who hit a flurry of first quarter threes, almost all of them wide open. Seriously, Curry had 21 points in the first alone, on 6-8 shooting from three. Possession after possession Boston left him open. 

But Boston settled down in the second quarter and even took a lead into halftime. That just set up another trademark Warriors third quarter barrage. They headed into the fourth quarter with a 12 point advantage only to see it slip through their fingers.

Led by Jaylen Brown, the Celtics started the fourth with a 9-0 run and eventually held the Warriors scoreless from the 6:05 mark to 1:09. During that span Boston ripped the game wide open with a 17-0 run. Derrick White hit a three followed by two Al Horford threes then a Horford baseline jumper coming out of a timeout. Then two Marcus Smart threes all but sealed the game. 

On a night when Jayson Tatum did not shoot well, he played the role of facilitator, racking up 13 assists. Brown was great but if there was a one game MVP award, it goes to Horford. He led all scorers with 26 points including 6 of 8 from three. 

With game one done, let’s look at some adjustments the Warriors need to make to take game two. 

Warriors’ Adjustments

It’s always easy to start with the losing teams. There were a few things the Warriors did well in this game. They dominated the offensive glass and finished with 26 second chance points to Boston’s 15. But in the fourth quarter, they had just one offensive rebound. 

Golden State controlled the pace through the first three quarters and actually did a great job not turning the ball over– they coughed it up 10 times, leading to only 11 Boston points. But in the fourth quarter, Boston converted  four more Warriors to 10 points. And it was two back-to-back turnovers that turned the tide in Boston’s favor. 

The first adjustment for the Warriors would be to look at their rotation, starting with Jordan Poole. As explosive as he can be offensively, he is a liability defensively. In game one he struggled on both sides of the court. He shot just 2 for 7 and had four turnovers. With Poole on the floor, the Warriors had a -39.1 net rating. It was particularly brutal when Curry, Klay Thompson, and Poole were together on the floor. With that foursome, the Warriors had a net rating of -52.5. More worrisome, playing Curry and Poole together gives the Celtics two targets to go at on the offensive end of the floor. 

This is not a call to bench Poole but rather to cut down his minutes, and to especially limit his time with Curry. If he catches fire, keep him going, but the Warriors cannot afford to let their defense suffer.

Next, it may seem counterintuitive to what the Warriors are known for, but Steve Kerr should staybig even when the Celtics go small. Golden State’s best lineup was their starting lineup, which includes Kevon Looney and Draymond Green  The starting lineup had a net rating of 37.5 but they played just 16 minutes together, and only one minute in the fourth.

The Warriors had a plus 33.6 net rating with Looney and Green on the floor together over 16 minutes. Kerr tried pairing Green with Andre Iguodala for 12 minutes, but together they had aa -19.6 net ratingr. The Celtics largely stopped defending both Green and Iguodala on the perimeter, so they could  pay more attention to Curry. 

No, Looney is not a shooter and he will not spread the floor but Boston will have to put someone on him in the dunker spot. When they don’t, it opens up more offensive rebound opportunities for Looney, who had six in game one. 

Lastly, Kerr needs to play Curry more. He played 38 minutes in game one, but with two days off between games, Curry needs to be on the floor 40 plus minutes. Sometimes the key to a series is not so much who you are playing but who you limit or completely cut out of the rotation. 

The biggest adjustment coming for the Warriors needs to be an adjustment to their rotation. Golden State has to play bigger for longer stretches and Curry needs more time on the court. 

The Warriors cannot go down 0-2 against the Celtics heading to Boston. 

Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men’s national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA. 

Photo Credit: John Hefti

The Boston Celtics are going for their 18th title in franchise history. They battled a lot of past foes to get here: The Brooklyn Nets, who knocked them out last season; the Milwaukee Bucks who beat them in the 2019 playoffs; and the Miami Heat, who sent them home in the 2020 bubble Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has finally gotten over the hump and are in the Finals.

The past two seasons were rough on the Golden State Warriors. Many closed the door on their return after the Kevin Durant departure and the Klay Thompson injuries. But this year, the Warriors broke that proverbial door down. They did it with a slightly altered cast including Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins to go with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Thompson. 

Now it is time to turn our attention to who will hold the Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end of season.

Celtics Defense vs Warriors Offense

The first thing to watch is the battle on the Warriors’ offensive side of the court. The Celtics have the best half-court defense in the playoffs according to Synergy Sports Technology. They allowed just 0.877 points per possession; the next closest team is 0.92. 

Boston’s defense has been suffocating. They do a good job of covering for each other when needed but it is not always needed. After working through a few screens, Jayson Tatum stays with Kyle Lowry on the drive, then rotates out to the corner to run Victor Oladipo off the three-point line. He receives help from Al Horford who meets and blocks Oladipo’s layup. 

But the Warriors present a different challenge than any team the Celtics have faced in the playoffs. Golden State has a PPP of 1.027 in the half-court. The best half court offense the Celtics faced was the Nets at 0.992 PPP in their first round.

Golden State’s offense is difficult to defend because it is predicated on constant movement. Taking one option away just opens up another for Golden State. Just look at this possession against the Dallas Mavericks. 

Poole comes off a ball screen, Jalen Brunson leaves Green to show help, Poole hits Green who goes right to a hand-off with Thompson. While that is happening, Poole comes off a pin down and gets a wide open three. Dinwiddie lets up after Poole passes and is calling for a switch that never happens.

Defending the Warriors is never easy. Here’s a great example from the last Celtics-Warriors game. The Celtics do a great job defending it.

Marcus Smart stays attached to Curry after he gives up the ball, then switches with Tatum during an off-ball screen along the baseline. Jaylen Brown takes away the hand-off opportunity to Otto Porter Jr. and then Horford switches onto Poole. Horford handles it well, and goes back to Kevon Looney, then the Celtics have to defend a hand-off with a Curry-Thompson screen mixed in. Brown and Tatum switch but Tatum trips and Thompson cashes in a three. 

The Celtics defended the play perfectly but a simple stumble leads to three points. A fall, a hesitation on a switch or a miscommunication and the Warriors make defenses pay. 

On the flip side Boston has the toughest defense the Warriors will face all playoffs. Boston is a disciplined defensive team. They have size on the wing with Tatum and Brown. Smart is the Defensive Player of the Year. Horford and Robert Williams (presuming he’s healthy) patrol the paint. The Celtics do a great job of switching and even switching out of bad matchups repeatedly. 

This will be a collision of a great offense versus a great defense. 

Warriors Defense vs Celtics Offense

Let’s flip the court now. 

The Celtics have two offenses, one that becomes one-on-one focused and another that is ball movement oriented. Playing one-on-one will play right into the Warriors hands, but the ball movement offense will create some challenges for Golden State. 

Good things happen for Boston on offense when they run multiple actions. Grant Williams slips a screen at the top of the possession, the ball gets kicked to the other side, triggering a pick-and-roll. The Heat switch , Horford gets the ball in the post against a wing player, and Tatum makes a great cut from the slot for the layup. 

Look also for the Celtics to attack Curry and Poole,especially when they are switched onto Tatum or Brown. Brown gets Curry matched up on him in early offense, and Green hangs around so the Celtics swing the ball over, pulling Green away before going back to that match up. With Brown beginning to back down Curry, Thompson shows help at the elbow and Smart drifts away. Brown makes the correct read and hits Smart, who knocks down a three against a late contest. 

Last thing to keep an eye on is just how the Warriors defend the pick-and-roll against the Celtics. Against Tatum, they are likely to show hard and to avoid switching. That is what they did early in their previous match up. That will open up opportunities for Boston to slip the screen and attack in the short roll, like the play below to Williams. 

The Warriors defense is not to be considered weak by any measure. They have given up a PPP of 0.984 in the playoffs. Green is a great quarterback of defense. Wiggins stepped up defensively against Luka Doncic. Porter is an important piece when healthy, and it appears defensive specialist Gary Payton II is on track to return during the Finals. Thompson is not the defender he used to be but that just means he has gone from elite lockdown to just good.

Even the perceived weak spots in Curry and Poole compete hard defensively. Curry in particular has improved defensively over the years and was never as bad as most thought. 

The Celtics will need to stay out of playing one-on-one basketball and the Warriors will need to stay out of switching into difficult match ups. 

Pace

The battle for how this series is played will be critical. Both teams are good in the half-court but their styles of play are drastically different. The Warriors want to play faster. They lead the NBA playoffs in scoring at 114.5 while the Celtics are eighth at 107.1. The Warriors have been playing at 98.4 pace (possessions per game) and the Celtics at 95.0 pace these playoffs. 

The Warriors want this to be a track meet, with the ball flying up and down the court. The faster they play the fewer possessions they will have to go up against Boston’s set defense.

Conversely, the Celtics want this to be a half court game. They went seven games against the Milwaukee Bucks; what hurt the Celtics most in that series was the transition game. In their three losses, they gave up an average of 18.7 points in transition versus 12.8 in their wins. 

Over the last 18 games, the Celtics broke 110 points 5 times, once in the previous series. The Warriors did it 10 times in their 16 playoff games. If this game is played in the low 100s that bodes well for Boston. If it is in the 110s or higher that favors Golden State.

This has the making of a fantastic series, with heavyweights on both sides and two very good coaches. There is going to be a lot of high level chess being played in each game. Get ready for loads of adjustment game to game, to even in-game. Rotations are going to be shifted and shuffled all series long. 

The Jump Ball prediction……FUN!

Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men’s national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA. 

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Team president Daryl Morey found if the team were willing to take a large number of threes while sacrificing midrange shots they would gain a competitive advantage.

So the Rockets attempts began to tick up starting from the 2012-13 season. But didn’t take off until 2016-17 under new head coach Mike D’Antoni. They launched 40.3 attempts a game, 10 more than the season before. As more teams began adopting this philosophy it was dubbed Morey Ball and the numbers advantage began to dwindle.

Morey ball has provided regular season success, they had the top seed in the playoffs last year and James Harden won his first Most Valuable Player award after being runner-up in consecutive years.

The playoffs, on the other hand, have been a different story for the Rockets. There is no shame in losing to the Warriors but they certainly had their chances to take them down. Their cracks began to show before ever facing them. It was the San Antonio Spurs in the 2017 playoffs that exposed their flawed thinking.

The Spurs executed a game plan designed to hound Haden all around the three-point line and meet him at the rim on his drives betting he would not attempt a midrange shot. The Rockets only averaged 3.6 midrange points per game. Eventually, Harden wore down and the Rockets exited the playoffs with a whimper.

That offseason the Rockets countered their failure by trading for the midrange king, Chris Paul. In his last season with the Los Angeles Clippers he averaged 5.3 midrange attempts in the regular season and 7.1 in the playoffs, as a team the Rockets had 7.1 attempts in the regular season and 6.7 in the playoffs that season.

In Paul’s two seasons as a Rocket though, his attempts in the midrange have fallen considerable, averaging only 2.8 in the regular season and playoffs. The Rockets are completely ignoring the midrange while teams like the Warriors are attacking it averaging 19.6 midrange attempts in the playoffs so far this season. In the series, they outscored the Rockets 92-18 in that range.

Morey ball has made it easier for teams to defend the Rockets; besides Paul teams do not have to worry about any other Rocket pulling up for a midrange shot. The opportunities were there in game six, Harden comes off a screen and Andrew Bogut is waiting for him in the paint. He has plenty of room to pull up for an open jumper but opts to dribble around a bit more and settles for a contested three. Austin Rivers has his man beat when he attacks the closeout and should pull up at the top of the key but instead steps back then drives right into a contested floater. The same thing with Eric Gordon, who has a wide-open free throw line jumper but attempts a floater against Draymond Green.

The midrange opens up a lot of opportunities for the Rockets, on back to back plays at the end of the third quarter, Paul’s threat in the midrange forced the Warriors defense to have to come up higher than they would on anyone else leaving Capela open for two lob dunks, give the Rockets a five-point edge.

Houston is ignoring a large portion of real estate on the offensive end by refusing to attack in the midrange and the worst part is teams know that. Once Harden gets within the three-point line, they know he’s either going to attack the paint or retreat back to the three-point line. The Milwaukee Bucks used this to their advantage when they swept the regular season series.

It is not that the Rockets philosophy cannot be successful; it just gives Houston such a small margin of error. If they suffer any sort of drought, which tends to happen to all three-point shooting teams from time to time, they will struggle to score.

Last season in game seven against the Warriors, they missed 27 consecutive threes en route to their loss. The Warriors got 18 points in the midrange, to the Rockets two.

Another scoring drought hit the Rockets in game six this season. Tied at 97-97 with 6:31 left in the game, they missed layups and threes until the 2:47 mark when Harden finally knocks down a three. The three-point and layup hunting caused that drought and allowed the Warriors to send the Rockets home despite not having Kevin Durant.

Houston does not have to revamp their offense at all; they just have to be willing to take a few more midrange shots. That will open the floor more either at the rim when the help defense has to step up higher or create more open threes when teams have to rotate to take away the rim. Hitting midrange shots is what can bend and ultimately break your opponent’s defense.

Instead of three-point or layup hunting, they need to go good shot hunting regardless where on the court that shot is. Analytics did not let the Rockets down, their interpretation of the numbers did.

Follow me on twitter @MoDakhil_NBA and you can support the Jump Ball, on Patreon – patreon.com/TheJumpBall

Related Article Notes:

• Washington Post – The Bucks may have shown the NBA how to stop James Harden
• The Spurs have to gear up for a new defensive challenge
• All Stats are from NBA.com/stats
• Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

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**Program Note, we didn’t discuss what is going on with Kristaps Porzingis’ allegations since we don’t have a lot of information.**