If you're a Sharks, Red Wings, Ducks, Canucks, Senators, or Devils fan, you've probably read your share of second round quotes and media write-ups about how X team has the momentum and Y team is doomed. The funny thing is that if you read enough of these things, you're likely to believe that, well, pretty much every team involved in the second round is completely in control based on who won which game in the two-game split, who was at home, who played well, who stole a game, and a bunch of other random criteria.
Want in on a little secret? Momentum's really a myth. It doesn't mean much of anything except to fans and media who need something to talk about. Just because one team steals a game in overtime or one team pounces on another's mistakes, the series isn't over. Consider the following cases where momentum didn't really mean a thing:
Sharks vs. Predators, 2007 Playoffs — Generally outplayed, the Sharks win the first game in double overtime, then get smoked by the Predators in Game 2. General wisdom says that the Predators have momentum on their side, right? Not so much — the Predators take a bevy of ill-timed penalties, lose their composure, and exit in five games.
Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, 2003 Playoffs — Washington storms to a 2-0 lead by outscoring the Lightning 9-3 while taking both games in Tampa. The Capitals had all the momentum on their side — right? Not so much as Tampa Bay rockets back to win four straight, including three on the road in Washington, to win the series in six.
Phoenix Coyotes vs. St. Louis Blues, 1999 Playoffs — After dropping the first game at home to St. Louis, the Coyotes win three straight, including two on the road. Up 3-1, the Coyotes have all the momentum in the world — except they drop the next three straight, including a 1-0 heartbreaker in overtime in Game 7.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Colorado Avalanche, 1998 Playoffs — In the height of the Peter Forsberg/Joe Sakic era, the Colorado Avalanche rolled to a 3-1 lead over the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers, playing as heavy underdogs and with no theoretical momentum on their side, scrape to a 3-1 win in Game 5, then a 2-0 win in Game 6, before blowing the Avalanche out of the water 4-0 in Game 7.
New York Rangers vs. New Jersey Devils, 1994 Playoffs — It's the mythical Messier Guarantee series and it just goes to show how little momentum means. After splitting the first four games in succession, the Devils go into enemy territory and grab the theoretical momentum to put the Rangers on the brink of elimination. With two chances to knock out their rivals, Mark Messier gives the media even more fodder by guaranteeing a win in New Jersey, then the Rangers win two in a row to kill whatever momentum the Devils had.
Momentum simply doesn't travel from game to game. Sure, it makes for a good story, but it's simply impossible to consistently predict the outcome of a series based on momentum. Instead, the best prognosticator for how well a team will do is to look at the sum of its parts. Is the goaltending sharp? Are the superstars playing like superstars? Are third and fourth liners getting opportune goals? Are the special teams working?
These are indicators of a series winner and a Cup champion. As for momentum, remember that weird bounces and lucky shots mean much more in determining who wins a particular game.
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