2007 NFL Preview: Chicago Bears

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View

As the Chicago Bears took the NFC by storm in 2006, Kyle Orton, the fill-in at quarterback during the 2005 season, was forgotten like one of Jared's Subway sandwiches.

That was a good thing, though, as Rex Grossman started and finished the season healthy and provided some much needed balance to a team that was carried by their defense.

In 2005, the defense established itself as the best in the business when they carried an unsupportive offense to 11 wins and a playoff berth.

The defense had really grown up in 2005, but many of the prospects finally entered their prime in 2006.

Brian Urlacher had his first monster season since 2002, leading the team with 141 tackles. Lance Briggs was right there with him, notching 130 tackles, while adding 4 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions. Defensive tackle, Tommie Harris, was on-pace for an MVP-like season until a hamstring injury cut his season short.

While their big dogs led the way, the Bears' younger pups also stepped onto the scene with authority. Rookies Danieal Manning and Mark Anderson were vital contributors, while Devin Hester was quite simply a game-breaker.

What is interesting is that it is difficult to gage whether this defense has topped out, or whether they can play even better. The cornerbacks are steady, the defensive line is solid, but one can't help but wonder how much better they could have been with a full season from Harris and a healthy Mike Brown, who was limited to six games.

On offense, the Bears finally earned their harvest from Rex Grossman, who had yet to start more than three games in any of his three NFL seasons.

Overall, Grossman's numbers looks just above average, but the hidden story in his statistics was the disparity of how well he played during wins, and how poorly he performed in their losses.

While many of the Bears did some growing in 2006, one high draft pick, running back Cedric Benson, didn't do so much. He still couldn't pry the starting job away from Thomas Jones and as the playoffs rolled around, the coaching staff stuck with their trusted veteran.

Once the Bears locked up their playoff standing, and the games were less meaningful, Benson started to see the bulk of the carries (over the last four), which is where he accumulated more than half of the 647 rushing yards he finished with.

The offensive line was a stout unit and didn't give Grossman too much to worry about. The receiving corps, on the other hand, can't say the same.

Muhsin Muhammad looked like he had been drinking from whatever is the opposite of the Fountain of Youth. During his final season in Carolina, Muhammad caught 93 receptions, 1,405 yards, and 14 touchdowns. During his first two seasons in Chicago, he has 1,613 yards and 9 touchdowns. Muhammad is now nothing more than a possession receiver.

At the very least, though, he was consistent while the No. 2 role opposite him was not. Bernard Berrian was a legit deep threat, but not much more. Mark Bradley, who looked to be the more complete receiver, torn his ACL after seven games. Lost in the shuffle was tight end Desmond Clark's career season. He was a useful safety valve, with 35 of his 45 receptions being first down grabs.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Rex Grossman

Since Brett Favre took over in Green Bay, the Bears have had more starting quarterbacks than Paris Hilton has had sex partners, but when one finally takes them to a 13-3 and a Super Bowl appearance, they want to run him out of town.

You'd think their standards would be lower, considering their history of quarterbacks, but I guess not.

Nonetheless, they are right in demanding more consistency out of Rex Grossman.

Grossman, on his own, accounted for 25 giveaways last year (20 INTs, 5 lost fumbles).

Coughing the ball up so much is dangerous, particularly as your team heads into the playoffs. So many coaches would tell you that they would prefer a guy who makes less plays and less mistakes, than a quarterback who is higher risk and higher reward.

That's what Grossman was last year. Here's how his stats breakdown in wins versus losses:

13 Wins:
57.9% completion percentage, 22 TD, 11 INT, 86.8 QB rating

3 Losses:
39.8% completion percentage, 1 TD, 9 INT, 19.3 QB rating

When you talk about inconsistency, Grossman's face should be next to the definition in the dictionary.

Five times in the first seven games, Grossman posted a QB rating higher than 100. But four other times last year, he finished with a QB rating lower than 36.8, including a 10.2 (at Arizona) and a 1.3 (vs. Minnesota).

The disturbing note about Grossman's performance was how he finished the season. In September and October, Grossman had a positive TD/INT ratio with ratings of 100.9 and 81.0. The last two months of the season, Grossman had negative TD/INT ratios with ratings of 57.1 and 64.4.

Granted, the Bears weren't playing for much by that point, but Grossman's confidence — as well as his teammates' confidence in him — was shaken. In the playoffs, Grossman was used mostly as a caretaker to avoid mistakes.

In fairness, this was Grossman's first full season as a starter, which means you can expect growing pains and you can expect more growth going further. That's what everyone in Chicago is counting on.

Will The Bears Be Better Or Worse In 2007?

Forget wins and losses, because success or failure will depend on whether they win the Super Bowl.

Defense

Considering the Bears lost Tank Johnson and are anticipating a 10-game holdout from Lance Briggs, the defense looks like it is going to take a hit. Briggs is really an underrated player still and rarely gets merit as one of the best outside linebackers in the game.

The Carolina Panthers were stung when they allowed their prime outside linebacker Will Witherspoon walk in free agency and the Bears will definitely feel a drop-off in production without Briggs.

When Briggs returns, which might be sooner than 10 games, you have to wonder how much he'll want to contribute to this team. Another situation to monitor the defensive end spot, where the Bears unsuccessfully tried to trade Alex Brown, and now demoted him.

The defense looked like it had a lot of chemistry last year and they don't want that to go sour.

But it is not all bad news for the defense; they will get back a healthy Mike Brown and acquired safety Adam Archuleta, who had his best seasons under Lovie Smith in St. Louis. The safety spots have been kind of weak the past few seasons, but now it should be a strength with plenty of depth around.

Danieal Manning is in his second season, which means he'll have a growing role, while the cornerback rotation of Charles Tillman, Ricky Manning, Jr., and Nathan Vasher is very good.

On the line is where the main concern should be. The Bears lost Tank Johnson, Ian Scott, and Alfonso Boone, which could regress the stout rush defense.

The Bears are counting on Dusty Dvoracek, a third-round pick from last season who spent the season injured, and newcomer Anthony Adams to fill their void. Johnson was an underrated asset last season and will be missed. The good news is that Tommie Harris is still around and he is just reaching his prime now but the Bears had such a deep rotation last year, which definitely won't be so strong this year.

On paper, the Bears look weaker up the middle and could be more susceptible to the run. But they should be stronger at safety, which will help offset the changes.

Offense

Donovan McNabb was not acquired, but the Bears offense should be much improved in 2007. At the very least, there are more weapons present.

Expect a more consistent season from Grossman, who has only had one real NFL season under his belt. Everyone is hoping that his injury-plagued past is in fact in his past, and will stay out of his present.

The Bears are counting on an old offensive line to hold up for one more season, which is getting close to pushing it. The youngest player on the offensive line, Robert Garza, is 28, while the other four starters are over 30. Ruben Brown is 35 and Fred Miller is 34, and both are subject to breakdown.

Keep an eye on this offensive line. It isn't a red flag — more orange right about now — but will derail all of the Bears Super Bowl hopes if they breakdown.

Grossman has new group of weapons, which should improve his performance.

First off, he'll be helped by the growth of Bradley and Berrian, both of whom are the future at wide receiver. With Muhammad, these three should give the Bears a reasonable trio. The passing game will also include Devin Hester, who has worked with the offense this offseason. He'll be used as a gadget option, likely sparingly, but in an effort to get him more touches.

At tight end, the Bears could have a formidable duo that will alleviate a lot of Grossman's burdens. We already know that Desmond Clark can find open spaces and has good hands, and first-round pick Greg Olsen can provide the explosive play. He also boasts top-notch speed, which will help after the catch.

Next to the quarterback position, the backfield is the second-most talked about position on this roster.

It's now the Cedric Benson show and it is finally time for him to take over. He is the prototypical pound-the-ball Bears running back and even though there is a lot of speculation, he'll be fine.

Adrian Peterson will be his No. 2, and could provide much of what Thomas Jones brought to the offense, in a limited role. Another x-factor on the offense will be Garrett Wolfe, who is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Yes, he is undersized, but so is Maurice Jones-Drew. Wolfe can be a game-breaker and provides yet another safety valve for Grossman.

With Bradley back, along with the additions of Olsen, Wolfe, and Hester, this offense will have much more big-play capability. There is a lot more speed to go around and there is much more help for Grossman.

Prognosis

Simply put, if Lance Briggs returns and isn't too much of a distraction, the Bears are a better team this year. They probably won't win as many games but they won't care about the regular season accomplishments since they will only be focused on returning to the Super Bowl.

Biggest Weakness: Quarterback — It's Super Bowl or bust, which means Grossman has to provide more consistency.

Offensive X-Factor: Offensive line — The Bears' front five is old, but should be able to hold on for another year. If not, you can forget about any prolonged postseason plans.

Defensive X-Factor: Safeties — If Mike Brown stays healthy and Adam Archuleta regains his St. Louis Rams form, an improved secondary may make up for the loss of Tank Johnson and Briggs.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Not many people are showing confidence in Cedric Benson, mostly because he's been injury-prone at the pro level. Injuries are more of a luck thing, and considering Benson was rarely hurt in college, I would put too much stock into it. Benson is a power back and will have the bulk of the carries all to himself. More importantly, he won't be pulled for a different option in the red zone. After 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, he'll easily be a guy we talk about drafting in the first round come 2008.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].