Grading the MLB Offseason Moves

While the one name that was repeatedly tossed around in trade talks this winter (Johan Santana) still remains in Minnesota, there were a flurry of deals done. Some via trades, and others coming from free agency, or simply re-signing their own players. Here is a list of the most notable in each category, along with a grade for the team(s) involved.

Trades

1. November 19: Angels receive Jon Garland, White Sox receive Orlando Cabrera

In terms of one-for-one trades, this was probably one of the more lopsided deals to go down in a while. Sure, the Halos needed some help with their starting pitching, but is it worth it to give up a shortstop coming off an 80+ RBI, 20 SB, .300 season? Garland has shown flashes of how great he could potentially be, but it's almost as though he is baiting you with those great performances, and then, when you put the whole thing together, it's just not that impressive (see Rex Grossman). 10-13 with a 4.23 ERA? Also, you're looking a paying him $12 million to be the third starter on that team. In addition, the Angels were forced to take one of their biggest trading chips, Brandon Wood, off the table for any other big moves they may have had planned (i.e. Miguel Cabrera or Santana). I really feel like the ChiSox got a steal here.

Angels: C; White Sox: A-

2. November 28: Twins receive Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pride. Rays receive Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan

This one amazed me based on how young the principles of the trade are. Normally, you are not going to see a guy who finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting get moved the following year, and you also may be a little reluctant to trade your best prospect for an outfielder who is still relatively unproven. Well, both happened here. The Twins knew that Torii Hunter was not going to stay unless they threw him at least $20 million a year for 5-6 years (he turned down a three-ear, $45 million offer reportedly), so they went out and got one of the biggest prospects to come down the pipe in a long, long time.

Delmon Young was the No. 1 prospect of not only the Rays, but for all of baseball. He has a big bat, and has speed to go with it. The only thing that could slow his progress is his discipline at the plate (struck out 127 times last year). Garza is a pitcher who definitely has the goods, and showed it when he threw 15 scoreless innings in his call-up last year. I give the edge to the Rays in this one because of the fact that their organization is literally crawling with right-handed outfielders that can hit for power and run. Also, they landed two starters in Garza (slotted as No. 3 in the rotation) and Jason Bartlett, who will start at short.

Twins: B, Rays: B+

3. December 5: Tigers receive Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Marlins receive Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, and the rest of the Tigers' minor league system

This is simple. When do want to win, now or later? For the Tigers, it's clearly now. In addition to this one, they also pulled a 2-1 deal with Atlanta involving two prospects for Edgar Renteria. Then, Detroit threw out this bombshell during the winter meetings. Sure, Willis didn't look impressive last year, but keep in mind where he'll be pitching half his starts at now. Comerica Park is a notoriously good park for pitchers, so expect a bit of a turnaround this season.

The cornerstone of this deal has to be Miguel Cabrera, though. This guy's first few seasons have been compared favorably to that of A-Rod's. He was a one-man wrecking crew in Miami, and now that he will be surrounded by guys like Renteria, Curtis Granderson, and Magglio Ordonez, look for his numbers to perhaps make a jump from their already outstanding level (2006: .320, 34 HR, 119 RBI). Miller and Maybin were considered untouchable ever since they reached AA, but a deal like this only comes along once and a while. When you have the opportunity to land a No. 1 or No. 2 starter and a surefire all-star slugger, you have to do whatever you can to get it done.

Detroit: A+, Florida: B

4. December 12: Astros receive Miguel Tejada. Diamondbacks receive Luke Scott, Troy Patton, Matt Albers Dennis Safarte, and Mike Constanzo

I have always loved Miguel Tejada and how much of a fierce competitor he is. He certainly will help the clubhouse morale in Houston. However, to me, this is a lot to give up for him. The O's get tremendous financial flexibility after dumping Tejada's $12 million a year contract. Plus, they pick up Patton and Albers, who were at one time considered to be candidates to be in Houston's starting rotation. The O's needed pitching help, and they certainly got that here.

Houston: B, Baltimore: A-

5. December 14: Diamondbacks receive Dan Haren and Connor Robertson. Oakland receives Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, and Carlos Gonzalez

If you're Arizona, you just don't have a choice here. When you get a chance to matchup an established ace with Brandon Webb in a relatively weak division, you have to do it. The last time they tried this experiment with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, they turned up roses in 2001. Also, Haren's contract is absolutely ludicrous. He is basically signed through 2010 and will receive $16.25 million over the next three years. The A's get a bunch of prospects, but it remains unknown as to what kind of impact they may have, whereas it is clear that adding Haren gives Arizona the best 1-2 punch in baseball.

Arizona: A+, Oakland: C+

Free Agents

1. Torii Hunter: Signed by Angels, 5 years, $90 million

I said all along that Hunter was the most intriguing player in the market given the fact that he's got all the tools a baseball player needs. He hits for average, power, has a ton of speed, and is the best defensive center fielder of this decade. While I love Hunter, the fact that he went to the Angels was surprising give that they just gave Gary Matthews, Jr. a five-year, $50 million contract last year. What exactly does this mean for Matthews? Well, a move to left field is likely, which means he'll have to adjust to playing a corner outfield position. You really can't go wrong with Hunter, but the years and the dollars don't quite add up to me. I'm thinking that a four-year, $64-68 million deal would have been a fairly good range for him.

Grade: B

2. Andruw Jones: Signed by Dodgers, 2 years, $36.2 million

If you told me that this deal would happen three or four years ago, I would be pretty much all for it. However, given Jones' near meltdown at the plate last year, and the fact that he's played 11 years in the majors really makes me question this one. He obviously still has power and plays a great center field, but his plate discipline is questionable at best. Right now, you're looking at a guy that can hopefully hit around .270, but will likely end up more around .240 to .250. The Dodgers are really taking a financial risk in signing Jones for this kind of money, granted it is only for two years. What I will say is that L.A. needed power in their lineup, and Jones does fit that billing. I just think it may not be enough for the Dodgers against the kind of pitching that is in the NL West.

Grade: C+

3. Francisco Cordero: Signed by Reds, 4 years, $46 million

I understand how important closers are, but this is one of the biggest head-scratchers I've seen in a long time. Not only because of the amount of money, but the team is also a mystery to me. The Reds have David Weathers, who got them 33 saves last year, and opted to bring in another closer? Their entire outfield is banged up, and they are in desperate need of bringing in a power hitting first baseman, but yet they signed a closer for over $11 million a year? This is totally perplexing. Cordero has great stuff, but the cost is way too high here, especially with Adam Dunn's impending free agency.

Grade: D

(Just to throw this in, Eric Gagne signed with the Brewers, Cordero's former team, for $10 million next season ... has the whole world gone crazy?)

4. Kosuke Fokudome, Signed by Cubs, 4 years, $48 million

Desperate teams do desperate things. In feeling a need to make some kind of impact after a mediocre '07 campaign, the Cubs felt a need to strengthen their lineup by going after Fokudome. While this Japanese import has certainly shown he can put up great numbers overseas, it's still unknown if he is going to end up being a smash or a bust. This is the risk of going after Japanese players. Also, he had his season cut short last year when he had surgery to remove bone fragments from his right elbow. This just seems like an act of pure desperation in where an obvious part of their team, starting pitching, needed to be filled, and instead, they go with another power hitter on a team that already has Soriano, Derrek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.

Grade: C

Other notable Japanese signings:

Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Dodgers, 3 years, $35.3 million
Masahide Kobayahi, RP, Indians, 2 years, $6.5 million
Yasuhiko Yabuta, RP, Royals, 2 years, $6 million
Kazuo Fukumori, RP, Rangers, 2 years, $3 million

5. Aaron Rowand, Signed by Giants, 5 years, $60 million

Of all the free agent signings, this is one of the ones I most agree with. Rowand is simply a solid baseball player who gives nothing less than 100% on every play. He just turned 30 last season, and after a great season in Philly, cashed in big time on his performance. It will be interesting to see how he does in Pac Bell, but given that Barry Bonds is out in San Fran, the Giants needed someone who could drive in runs besides Pedro Feliz (who is still a free agent) and Ray Durham. The lineup was in desperate need of a power bat, and while Rowand will not solve all of their problems, he has a shot of reproducing his '07 season if the Giants give him protection in the lineup.

Grade: A-

Re-Signings

1. Alex Rodriguez: Re-signed with Yankees, 10 years, $275 million

Where do we even begin here? Sure, he's the best hitter in the game. That cannot be argued. However, what can be questioned is how he is in the big spots. He has shined in the regular season, but has been a goat in the postseason. One of these years, it's likely he'll break through and snap out of this. Much like Peyton Manning, I feel like if A-Rod keeps knocking on the doorstep, eventually it will fall. However, to give him a deal that could net him as much as $300 million with incentives is almost laughable.

Look, the Yankees were basically bidding against themselves because no one had the kind of deep pockets to land him. In the end, I think they overspent by about $40-50 million to keep their own guy. So much for hometown discounts. The best thing for Rodriguez would be to get out of the spotlight of New York and try to restart his career elsewhere. Sure, he may win MVPs with New York, but he may also lose his mind in the process with the ever-amounting pressure on him to win something meaningful with the Yankees.

Grade: B-

2. Mike Lowell: Re-signed with Red Sox, 3 years, $37.5 million

A move that simply had to be made. If the Sox went after A-Rod, they would have alienated a ton of Sox fans because of what has happened in the Sox/Yankees rivalry involving Rodriguez. Lowell played out of his mind last year, and while a certain degree of that could be attributed to the fact that he was going to hit the market for the first time in his career, I feel like when you look at his career, he's really only had one off-year with the Marlins in '05, and that's been about it.

Lowell was absolutely critical to the Sox' success in the early parts of the season when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were struggling at the plate. Lowell is a former Gold Glove winner, and is one of the best defensive third basemen in the game. His presence on the Sox is invaluable, and if he had gone off somewhere else, who knows what would have happened with the Sox as the market for third basemen was anything but deep.

Grade: A+

3. Andy Pettitte: Re-signed with Yankees, 1 year, $16 million

I'll say this: at least they're trying. They're trying to recapture the magic of those mid-'90s teams by keeping one of its members around. Still, you have to wonder about this. Sure, the Yankees are in desperate need of front-line starters to keep pace with the Red Sox, who hold a distinct advantage in that department as of right now. He did finish ninth in the AL in innings, so his stamina has not deteriorated too much. This is one of those deals where it's almost like, well, what else can they really do?

Grade: B

Other Yankee re-signings:

Exercised $16 million option on Bobby Abreu
Jorge Posada, 4 years, $52.4 million
Mariano Rivera, 3 years, $45 million
Jose Molina, 2 years, $4 million

Amount of money spent by the Yankees to keep their own guys: $408.4 million

4. Luis Castillo: Re-signed with Mets, 4 years, $25 million

This is a lot for Castillo considering his stolen bases has plummeted for the last few years. He still plays above-average defense, though, which is why the Mets put down the kind of money they did to keep him. Also, he's a .300 hitter, which is something the Mets needed at the top of their order. He will be the table-setter for David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado.

Grade: B

5. Kerry Wood: Re-signed with Cubs, 1 year, $4.2 million

What a wild card this is. Most of the talk about Wood, along with Mark Prior (who signed with the Padres) has always centered around the words "what if." What if Wood and Prior had stayed healthy? What if Kerry Wood could become a dominant closer? These are just a few of the questions Cubs fans and baseball fans alike have been curious about. While Wood will likely never get a full, clean bill of health, you have to believe that any kind of contribution he can make for this team will make that $4 million completely worthwhile, whether it be to start again, or to be a setup man for Ryan Dempster.

Grade: B

Comments and Conversation

January 2, 2008

kate ford:

I think you are wrong on the Garland trade the Sox were stupid . Jon Garland is a Ace and for 12 mill I would pay him that any day . He is going to show you how wrong you are you are stupid just like Kenny Williams Jon is 28 years old Cabrera is in his 30s I think some where around 34 he is done you can stick a fork in him . on the other hand Jon Garland is in his prime , He is going to win the Cy young award in the next few years. Sox would get an F- and Angels get a A+ . You do not know what you are talking about get a new job!!!!!!!!

January 2, 2008

kate ford:

You are wrong on the Garland Trade that was a stupid trade for Kenny Williams to make . Jon Garland is in his prime at 28 years old 18 game winner back to back and he should of had 20 wins in 07 but the White Sox gave him no run support and the bullpen was a joke lost alot of games for him they suck. The Angels are so lucky to get him i give the Angels a A+ and The White Sox a F- . Cabrera is 33 years old put a fork in him he is done!!!!!!!! Boo White Sox They suck for trading him . Go Angels !!!!!!!!

January 3, 2008

catman:

although I appreciate the effort, I disagree with the value you place on Garza, Bartlett and Morlan. I think the Twins got the better of the deal, exchanging something they had an excess of (young starting pitchers) for something they needed (young, talented outfielders). Bartlett and Harris are nearly a wash, and the Twins did not plan to use Bartlett as their SS too much longer anyway.
As to Luis Castillo getting a B for the Mets, I think there are a few 2Bs out there that could have been better fits. David Eckstein is one of these and he would have been a lot cheaper.
Also, I have seen Cordero at his best and at his worst. The only problem is you never know which you have any particular day. He is not worth that much money to my ballclub.

January 3, 2008

Mike Round:

I think Kate Ford has a crush on Mr. Garland - if he wins a Cy Young in any year I’ll saw my own leg off with a rusty swiss army knife.
He has a career ERA of 4.41, WHIP of 1.37 and opponents hit .270 against him. He’s a prettier Shaun Estes.
In one of his 18 win seasons he sported a thoroughly un-Cy Young-like ERA of 4.51……wins are a garbage way of indicating how good a pitcheris.

Good job Rich - interesting column. The A-Rod deal may look “laughable” as you say on paper but to a franchise that virtually prints its own money it makes economic sense. The post season thing is grossly overdone by the media - for example no one ever reads that Gary Sheffield is currently on a 7-33 post season streak with no XBHs or that Jeter hit .176 against Cleveland in the ALDS.
Cheers
Mike

January 3, 2008

matt:

look kate whatever ur smoking send some my way orlando cabrera is one of the best shortstopsin the game u need to recheck ur stats because in my book behind jose reyes and derek jeter stands orlando cabrera

January 4, 2008

Andrew Jones:

What about the Mariners signing Carlos Silva, what would you grade that? I’d give that a solid F+. No pitcher in history has made me as nervous when he pitches as Silva. At any moment a ball can leave the stadium or head right to the shortstop for a beautiful 6-4-3 double play. He’s too inconsistent for a 40 million dollar deal.

January 30, 2008

DG:

I don’t think you did your homework on the Reds. To say that are entire outfield is banged up just false (unless you’re already predicting Griffey’s next mid-season injury). LF is Adam Dunn who is healthy as a horse and kind of looks like one, too. RF is Griffey who had his most healthy season as a Red last year. In CF, we had to trade a great player in Josh Hamilton to make room for basball’s top prospect, Jay Bruce. To back them up, we have a very talented fielder in Norris Hopper and an adequate stop-gap in Ryan Freel.

A slugger at first? Joey Votto was brought up last year and had a HR in his first at-bat and finished the season with very strong numbers.

David Weathers isn’t a true closer, although he performed well at the position last year. Cordero was expensive, but as you pointed out, look at his replacement. I’d much rather have Cordero than Gagne, too. Signing him streangthens our entire bullpen which was by far our biggest weakness last year. It moves Weathers to set-up along with late releiver Jared Burton.

I’m happy with the Red’s moves this off-season, and most notably, the Cordero move. Getting Edinson Volquez and Jeremy Affeldt will take pressure off of prospects Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto who will have a chance to contribute along with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce this year. I hope time will tell that your assesment was uninformed.

Leave a Comment

Featured Site