College Football Predictions: Week 6

Last week was not kind to me or those who follow my picks. The good news is that I am well ahead for the season and definitely plan on keeping it up this week.

YTD Record

1* = 2-4-1
2* = 5-3
3* = 5-2

As a reminder, the ranking system is as follows:

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

LSU @ Florida PK, 3:30 PM, CBS

The first of two very large SEC matchups on the weekend pits LSU and Florida against each other in the Swamp. The Gators enter the game undefeated with national championship aspirations still alive, while LSU must earn a win simply to keep their distant SEC title hopes alive.

I think that LSU is the more talented team here, and the fact that they are not an underdog in an environment as hostile Gainesville suggests the oddsmakers feel that way, too. Even so, and despite the fact that I still don't trust Chris Leak, I think Florida finds a way to get this one done for no other reason than that I'd rather back Urban Meyer over Les Miles any day.

The play: Florida 1*

Texas -4 vs. Oklahoma, 3:30 PM, ABC

Per usual, the annual Red River Shootout between Texas and Oklahoma will likely be for the Big 12 South title. However, this is the first time in years that neither team is a likely national championship candidate going into this game. Don't think for a second that fact suggest that this game is meaningless to the teams involved.

For a while, I've been assuming that as a contrarian, I'd be forced to back Oklahoma and Paul Thompson in this spot, but then a funny thing happened — Oklahoma actually played well the last few games. Consider me unconvinced, Oregon moved the ball very effectively against the supposedly great Oklahoma defense, and Texas should be able to do the same. I am not a fan of eating chalk, but I won't back Paul Thompson in this spot.

The play: Texas 1*

Tennessee @ Georgia +3, 7:45 PM, ESPN

The Saturday night matchup between Georgia and Tennessee is pretty much an elimination game in the SEC East race. I could analyze this game any number of ways, but I'd come to the same conclusion every single time. Everything I've seen points towards Tennessee winning this game big, but it is never that easy.

Georgia's quarterback situation is abysmal, but they are still a strong rushing team with a very good defense playing at home in a nighttime, hostile environment. I live for "ugly" plays like these.

The play: Georgia 3*

Oregon @ Cal -4.5, 8:00 PM, ABC

It's probably a bit short-sighted, but I'm calling this one the Pac-10 semifinal game. Whomever wins this contest will enter their game against USC with a chance to wrestle the conference title from the Trojans' firm grasp.

This line opened at Cal -7.5 and has since plummeted down to its current level of Cal -4.5. Normally, this would suggest that the sharp money is on Oregon, but I don't think so. I think the public is pounding an undefeated Oregon team getting points on the road against the team that got blown out by Tennessee. Oregon has never been a great road team, and they used up all of their luck against Oklahoma. The Ducks get roasted Saturday night.

The play: Cal 2*

Nebraska @ Iowa State +7

In the other ABC primetime game of the night Iowa State and Nebraska battle it out for Big 12 North supremacy. The teams have lost three games combined, but when you consider that those losses were all on the road to Iowa, USC, and Texas it really doesn't seem as bad.

I say this a lot, but that number just seems way too generous in respect to Iowa State receiving seven points at home. Iowa State is certain to be more public that I'd prefer because of the large number, but probably won't get enough attention to keep me from playing them. I think they have a great shot to win outright, so I'll be more than happy to grab the points.

The play: Iowa State 2*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.