The weather is turning, and teams' playoff hopes are starting to fall like leaves to the ground, spectacular in their decent, but nonetheless destined for the compost heap. Not a single team is mathematically eliminated as of yet, but I'm officially writing off the Dolphins, Lions, and Cardinals. A slew of other teams are right behind them, with Oakland, Houston, and San Francisco most likely next for the "okay, we're dead" club, where even the most diehard fan gives up hope.
(You might say those and other two-win teams are already out, but I'm not ready to throw the dirt on the coffin just yet. Three games under .500 with a half season to play just isn't a deep enough hole to completely give up hope. Crazier things have happened.)
With all that said, desperation time is looming for those barely holding on, while the upper crust begins to throw some elbows in the fight for home-field advantage. Here are some notes from the past week in the NFL:
1. As of right now, we're looking at a Chicago/New England Super Bowl, a rematch of one of the five most famous championship games (SB XX) in any sport in the modern era.
2. Was that Tommy Maddox playing QB for Pittsburgh?
3. Rest in peace, Red Auerbach.
4. Only one team in the NFL is allowing more than five yards per rush on defense: Indianapolis. Does anybody really think the team with the worst rushing defense in the league is going to win the title?
5. Jake Delhomme is starting to remind me of Aaron Brooks back before everybody figured out he sucked. The 2003 playoffs may have been his peak.
6. I was wrong when I said in the Week 6 Bye Report that Bill Parcells shouldn't bench Drew Bledsoe. Tony Romo has completely re-energized the Cowboys.
7. There are certain people I hate to see happy. Terrell Owens is one of them.
8. The Eagles have no heart.
9. The Saturday Night Live with Hugh Laurie as host and Beck as musical guest was one of the funniest since the Will Ferrell years. We may have a rebirth in the making here.
10. Of the offenses I wouldn't want to have to defend against in a two-minute drive with the game on the line, New England/Indianapolis is an easy 1-2. I'm beginning to think Atlanta might be number three. If you're going to beat the Falcons, you better get up on them early.
One other note from Week 8: I said the bye week for the Lions came at a perfect time for Detroit because they would have some spare time to attend the riots on Eight Mile when the Tigers won/lost the World Series. My wife said that was racist. I'm sorry.
(We're happy to report there were no riots on Eight Mile this weekend, though Detroit was named the second most dangerous city in America in a poll released Monday. Number 1? St. Louis, baby! We're on a roll!)
On to the final bye report of the season. Arizona, Philadelphia, Carolina, and the Jets are last to take a pit stop on the Yellow Brick Road to NFL Oz. If there's any hope for the cowardly lion (Dennis Green), heartless tin man (Donovan McNabb), brainless scarecrow (Delhomme), or fragile little dog hoping not to get eaten by flying monkeys (Chad Pennington), now's the time to figure something out.
Arizona Cardinals
(1-7, 1-2 NFC West, last place)
Overview — They are currently all alone in the race for the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. I actually agree with the decision not to can Dennis Green. What is there really to gain out of firing Green right now? They're not making the playoffs, and the internal strife that would come from a coaching bloodbath could actually do more harm than good in the overall development of some of the younger players. Might as well just let Denny ride it out, see if he can capture some us-against-the world magic.
Impact of the Bye — If nothing else, this at least stops the "Green will get fired at the bye week" rumors that have been going on since the final seconds of the Bears game.
Outlook — Whatever happens with Green, Cardinals fans should just pray they get a pick high enough (but not too high) to grab the top offensive lineman in the draft, Wisconsin LT Joe Thomas. Pick three or four would be perfect.
Philadelphia Eagles
(4-4, 1-1 NFC East, third place)
Overview — You look at the stats, and you can't figure out why this team is 4-4. Statistically, they should be fighting it out for home-field advantage. Instead, they're on the outside looking in for the playoffs, mired in the very mediocre soft middle of the NFC. I think the Eagles may just be the football team equivalent of A-Rod, putting up MVP numbers, but never coming through when it matters most.
Impact of the Bye — Andy Reid has to figure something out during this time off. The Giants did it a few weeks ago, and Baltimore did it last week. All is not lost, but time is ticking.
Outlook — The good news is that with home games against Washington and Tennessee up after the break, the Eagles should jump to 6-4 and get back in the thick of it for the NFC East crown and playoffs. The bad news is their last six games after that are at Indianapolis, Carolina at home, at Washington, at Giants, at Dallas, Atlanta. Assuming they sweep the Redskins and beat the Titans, they would still need three more wins against legit playoff contenders to make 10 wins. Possible, but not by any means certain.
Carolina Panthers
(4-4, 2-1 NFC South, third place)
Overview — Losing at home to the Cowboys going into the bye was absolutely the wrong thing to do. Delhomme looked like a basket case, the special teams fell apart, the defense gave up more than 400 yards to an offense led by a QB making his first NFL start, and what was a 14-13 lead with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter turned into a traumatic 21-point beat-down.
Impact of the Bye — For a team that needs to get itself together for a run to the playoffs (and overcome both the Saints and Falcons within their division), John Fox has to fix his offense. They've only scored 14 points in each of their last two games, going a combined 5-of-20 on third down. With an extra week before playing Tampa Bay and St. Louis at home, now is the time.
Outlook — Needing at least six wins out of their last eight, and with road games against Philly (Week 13), Atlanta (Week 16), and New Orleans (Week 17), they are going to have to find a new gear. I wouldn't want to be the road team playing at New Orleans in the last week of the season with a playoff spot on the line, but Fox and the Panthers have gone on streaks before. I have my doubts that they can do it again, but never say never.
New York Jets
(4-4, 2-1, AFC East, second place)
Overview — This is certainly a better place than anybody thought the Jets would be half-way through the season. The loss at Cleveland last week was a killer, missing out on the chance to go to 5-3 and have a real shot at making the show. Despite the respectable record, the Jets rank in the 20s in overall offense and the defense has given up the most points in the AFC.
Impact of the Bye — With New England and Chicago up after the break, this is a great time to take a break. They may want to take this chance to get Kellen Clemens some practice reps. There's a decent chance Pennington is in a sling by Thanksgiving.
Outlook — Eric Mangini's rejuvenated crew faces a fall to 4-6 before a somewhat cushy final six (Houston, at Green Bay, Buffalo, at Minnesota, at Miami, Oakland) gives them a shot to get back into it. My guess is they find a way to lose at least three of those games to finish 7-9 and out of the playoffs. Still, this has been a very decent job by Mangini. If they have another good draft in April, they could make some real noise by this time next year.
iMix of the Week
1. Baby Please Don't Go – John Lee Hooker
2. Johnny B. Goode – Chuck Berry
3. Rock N' Roll – Mos Def
4. King Heroin – James Brown
5. Well You Needn't – Thelonious Monk
6. Straight, No Chaser – Thelonious Monk
7. One For My Baby – David "Fathead" Newman
8. The Formula – The D.O.C.
9. Definition – Black Star
10. Rock Star – The Roots
November 4, 2006
Anthony Brancato:
As harsh as I’ve been on Andy Reid over the years, I actually have to salute him this season for finally biting the bullet and embracing the deep passing game.
What happened to the West Coast Offense in Philly? Apparently, the same thing that happened to Communism in China: It’s still there, but in name only.
No, the Eagles’ problem is that they have become a soft, finesse team on both sides of the ball: They can’t run between the tackles, and they can’t stop other teams from running on them between the tackles.
Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Johnson needs to take a cue from his boss and show some flexibility and adaptiveness, dropping his knee-jerk prejudice against supsersize interior linemen of the Ted Washington/Sam Adams variety.
The Eagles need to get their claws on a power runner on offense and at least one - and preferrably two - run-stuffers on defense, in time for next year, or else nothing much will change. And if Johnson refuses to go along with the latter, he should be fired.