Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Future is Now For the NCAA's NFL Prospects
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It has been said that timing is everything and no truer an idiom exists when considering the futures of several top collegiate performers. Historically, earning some of college football's highest honors means little to a player's value relative to NFL talent evaluators. Heisman Memorial Trophy winning signal-callers like Andre Ware (1989), Gino Torretta ('92), Charlie Ward ('93), Danny Wuerffel ('96), Eric Crouch ('01), and Jason White ('03) each dominated their competition, yet failed to impress scouts enough to earn anything outside of circumstantial consideration on draft weekend.
Quarterbacks aren't the only players subject to such scrutiny. The Doak Walker Award has been awarded to the nation's top collegiate running back each season since 1990. The award's inaugural recipient, Washington's Greg Lewis, didn't hear his name called until the fifth round of the NFL Annual Player Selection Meeting when he was selected by the Denver Broncos. Lewis went on to play just two seasons in the NFL. His story is not unique; Rice's Trevor Cobb went undrafted after winning the award in 1991 and in 2001, BYU's Luke Staley wasn't selected until the seventh round. Even Byron "Bam" Morris, who showcased a rare combination of size, speed, and power while excelling at Texas Tech, didn't get chosen until round three in the '94 draft.
Regardless of position, there is a litany of players who just didn't make the grade when being assessed as professional prospect — wide receivers like Troy Walters, Mike Haas, and Marcus Harris (Biletnikoff Award winners) and linebackers such as Erick Anderson, Dana Howard, Matt Russell, and Rocky Calmus (Butkus Award winners) — for one reason or another. Even positions that traditionally translate quite well from one level to the next such as interior offensive and defensive lineman are not exempt from these judgments. Minnesota's Greg Eslinger won both the Outland Trophy and the Dave Rimington Trophy — awarded to the nation's top interior lineman and center, respectively — in 2005 yet remained undrafted in the 2006 draft until round six. Kris Farris, a 6'9", 295-pound Outland Trophy-winning behemoth who was a stud tackle at UCLA in 1998 didn't get picked until the third round; ridiculous considering his combination of size and dexterity.
There can be no other rational explanation for such subjectivity run amok than the most simple of these reasons; timing. In the early 1990s, for example, smallish running backs were ignored by many even after the success of Barry Sanders wowed traditionalists who insisted that a prototypical runner stood six-feet tall and weighed in at 210 pounds, so players like Cobb and Lewis were viewed as novelties.
Ditto with the quarterbacks; the NFL was largely into pro-style offenses in the early- to mid-'90s, which required tall-standing, strong-armed quarterbacks with minimal athletic ability. "System passers" like Miami's Torretta and Florida's Wuerffel were considered under-qualified where they may well have gotten more serious consideration had they been coming out of school a decade earlier where precision passing was at a premium. Receivers like Haas and Harris would have been shoo-ins as first round picks in the '70s when the passing game was just taking off in the NFL and guys who could catch the ball and run solid routes were as necessary as they were rare.
This brings us to the 2008 crop of potential NFL draftees. What qualities will be sought after in the '09 draft that will make or break those headline-grabbers from the current NCAA landscape? Taking a look at each of those athletes that have the hardware in their trophy cases and the draft eligibility to participate in next spring's selection meeting, I've assessed each player's skill-set relative to what NFL teams are likely to be looking for and have noted which of those players will be playing on Sunday's and which will be struggling to make a practice squad.
Bronko Nagurski Award (Defensive Player of the Year)
Brian Orakpo, DL Texas — Orakpo has the size (6'4", 260 lbs) scouts love and undeniable power on the field. Because of his strength, he translates to a player that can stop both the run and pass as a defensive end and can also play as a pocket-collapsing presence in the middle of the defensive line in nickel packages. There isn't a whole lot of chance, barring some unforeseen character issues popping up before the draft or a debilitating injury occurring in their bowl game, that the top defensive player in the nation doesn't go in the top five of the '09 draft.
John Mackey Award (Outstanding Tight End)
Chase Coffman, Missouri — Mizzou's "other" Chase stands to have much more draft day value than the QB that shares his first name. At 6'6", 245 lbs, Coffman has the prototypical size for a 21st century NFL tight end. He has shown incredibly sure hands and has also proven to be a more than adequate in-line blocker in his three seasons at Missouri and carries a great deal of value at the TE position, which typically carries a second or third round draft value. Coffman certainly shouldn't last past round two, and his skill-set and tangible qualities would translate well to any era.
Jim Thorpe Award (Outstanding Defensive Back)
Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State — At 6'1", you would think Jenkins fits the mold of a pro cornerback to a tee. However, in recent years, the trend has reverted back toward smallish corners with more speed and things figure to continue in that direction, making Jenkins an interesting player. Assuming he runs in the 4.4 range, as he has in the past, Jenkins may well solidify a spot in the first round fulfilling what many have considered to be his destiny as a top-flight pro prospect. However, if he falters in workouts and winds up closer to the 4.5s, expect a fall for Jenkins perhaps even to the middle of round two. Relative to timing, had Jenkins been draft eligible six years back, when big corners were the "it" thing, he'd be a sure-fire top-10 selection. But now, with the possibility of being asked to man a safety position should he not post a great workout time, his stock will likely take a hit.
Fred Biletnikoff Award (Outstanding Wide Receiver)
Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech — I won't spend much time here at all other than to say in any era, at any time, under any circumstances, Michael Crabtree is an ideal wide receiver. He will go in the top ten, he should go in the top five and he will be a top talent at the next level.
Doak Walker Award (National Running Back Award)
Shonn Greene, RB Iowa — While Greene meets the standards today's pro scouts set for their halfbacks (6-foot-ish, 230-ish), he lacks the gear-changing ability most teams look for when trying to find that "difference-maker" in the backfield. Add that to the 11 catches total Greene had at Iowa, and you have yourself the type of one-dimensional back that frankly could be had in rounds three or four. While Greene will likely be selected in round two at the latest, you'd expect more from the nation's top tailback. Again, had Greene come along five or 10 years earlier, when just straight-ahead running was enough to get you a fat pro contract, he'd had made out very well come draft weekend. In today's environment, though, the Iowa runner is little more than the most prolific of a very common mold that is neither highly sought after nor heavily valued.
Dick Butkus Award (Outstanding Linebacker)
Aaron Curry, OLB Wake Forest — Like Crabtree, Curry has very high "portability" to any era. At 6'2", he is the standard size for a prototypical linebacker. At 246 pounds, he carries enough weight to handle bigger o-lineman without negatively impacting his agility. Average 40-time, but tenacious aggression and hawkish ball skills more than make up for any lack in burst he may have. Curry should be an early day one draft choice and all indications are he'll live up to that ranking fully.
Outland Trophy (Outstanding Interior Lineman)
Andre Smith, OT Alabama — Character issues are the only potential negative there is on Smith, who's size, strength and ability define a pro-style offensive tackle. Assuming there are no deal-breaking sort of revelations between now and the draft, Big Andre should be the top pick in April's draft and likely would have been had he come out in 1999 or 1989, as well.
Chuck Bednarick Award (Defensive Player of the Year)
Rey Maualuga, LB USC — Linebackers are quite commonly lumped into groups based on size/speed indicators by draft gurus across the land. The powerful and productive USC linebacker may actually suffer a subtle value loss as a result of this grouping. Because of relative heaviness (260 lbs at last check) at the position, Rey will likely be rated just below the top-tier of pure linebacker prospects as he will be classified a bit of a 'tweener. Today's pro teams like leaner, speedier outside guys and typically prefer their MLB prospects to be a bit more svelte to enhance their coverage prowess. The result will be a lower first round grade than I think many expect, and this is based solely on a preference for smaller-framed guys at the position that has grown prevalent in recent years.
Walter Camp Award (College Player of the Year)
Colt McCoy, QB Texas — McCoy is likely to return to UT for one last run at a national title, however, if he were to jump ship and go pro in 2009, he would be pleasantly surprised with his draft status. At 6'3", 210 pounds and with excellent arm strength and straight-line speed, McCoy is a viable pro option by any team's standards these days. Long gone are the days when statuesque individuals (think Drew Bledsoe) are the preference and we all know how pro teams feel about smallish guys (Troy Smith, eat your heart out). Colt has the size that teams feel is required and the arm strength that allows him to make all the throws without compromising his ability to make something happen with his legs and pocket presence. Colt certainly would not fall victim to any era-based biases and in fact would make out quite nicely as a result of a recent development that has made a mobile-but-not-too-mobile breed of QB a very valuable commodity.
Maxwell Award (Outstanding Player)
Tim Tebow, QB Florida — Another that may not test the draft-day waters in 2009, Tebow is by far the most interesting of all prospective draftees. Recent history dictates that Tebow hasn't showcased the pure passing chops that endear him to professional scouts and the failings of Mike Vick and Vince Young as "hybrid" players at the position are cause for pause among any circle of assessors. Smart money says that Tebow would have to switch positions (possibly tight end) to make himself a first round prospect, but frankly, I just don't see that happening.
Had we been having this discussion at this time last season (assuming again that Tebow was draft eligible), I'd have been telling you that Tim would most certainly be a second round pick at best, a huge disappointment for a Heisman winner and two-time Maxwell Award winner. But in today's game, thanks largely to the innovations of the Miami Dolphins coaching staff, the "Wildcat"-style package has created an interesting niche for Mr. Tebow. Imagine lining up the single wing with Tebow taking the snaps 10 to 15 times a game. He could throw as easily as he could run and no better straight-ahead running option exists.
Believe me when I tell you that this fact and recent development has not been lost on the league, nor has it been missed by Tebow's advisors. No better example of timing exists in this year's draft and should he decide to go pro, he is likely back in the top 15 and certainly wouldn't get past Miami in late round one. While this is still a bit of an upset considering the hardware he carries in his trophy case, Tebow's skills couldn't come onto the scene at a better time and may well solidify his future as a QB at the next level.
Heisman Memorial Trophy (Outstanding Player)
Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma — Yet one more signal-caller that may or may not turn pro, Bradford is far less of a question mark than the two others may be, at least on paper. With size, strength, agility and a proven track record of winning, Bradford is a franchise-type QB prospect. Be wary, though, if you are Sam; as the title of this piece implies, timing is everything, and no better time exists than when you are both healthy and at the top of your game when it comes to cashing in on draft day.
Next year may not be so kind, just ask Matt Leinart.