Wednesday, November 29, 2006
College Football Predictions: Championships
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I am absolutely stunned that the season is already over. I am not thrilled with my record this year, but any time you can gamble for an entire season and come out ahead of the books, you have done something right. Bowl season has almost always been kind to me, and I intend to share all of my selections for that time of year with you guys, as well. Good luck this week.
YTD Record
1* = 10-5-1
2* = 10-8-1
3* = 9-7
1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)
No. 16 Wake Forest @ No. 23 Georgia Tech –2.5, 1:00 PM, ABC
I'm not sure this is the conference title game match up the forefathers of the modern day ACC envisioned when they put the 12-team conference together. Regardless of what anyone thinks, these teams have earned their place in this game, as well as the BCS opportunity that comes with a victory on Saturday.
Tech and Wake didn't meet in the regular season, so there really isn't a great point of reference for comparison other than their performances against common opponents, but this type of analysis almost always does more harm than good. I don't recommend it.
The thing I keep coming back to this game is the 251 yards Sean Glennon threw for against Wake a few weeks ago. That seems like as good of an indication as any that it doesn't take a good quarterback to move the ball through the air against Wake Forest at this point in the season. That sure is good news for Tech because they certainly don't have a good quarterback so long as Reggie Ball is at the helm of their offense. Look for Tech to win this one comfortably behind their defense and a couple of big gains from Calvin Johnson in the passing game.
The play: Ga Tech 3*
No. 2 USC @ UCLA +12.5, 4:30 PM, ABC
Before USC can book their flight to Glendale in January, they must first travel across town to take on the Bruins in Pasadena. Despite already accepting a bid to play in the Emerald Bowl, motivation won't be an issue for UCLA as they have been drilled by the Trojans in each of the last few meetings.
As usual, it is very tough to make a case for a team like UCLA on paper, so I won't really try to. This is a classic sandwich spot for USC coming off their big win over Notre Dame. They can't afford to be looking ahead to Ohio State, but that doesn't mean they won't be. I expect USC to win this game, but look for UCLA to keep it close all the way into the fourth quarter.
The play: UCLA 2*
No. 8 Arkansas +2.5 @ No. 4 Florida, 6:00 PM, CBS
It is unknown what exactly will be at stake when the two survivors of the SEC slate take the field Saturday night in Atlanta. If USC goes down earlier in the day, then Florida will be trying vehemently to state their case for the spot opposite Ohio State in the national title game. Regardless of what happens in the other contest, a BCS spot will be on the line here.
I've been on both sides of games featuring these squads throughout the course of the year, and frankly I could see this one going either way. Believe it or not, I think Florida is going to have a harder time moving the ball than Arkansas will. The Gators have struggled offensively against virtually everyone not named Western Carolina that they have played lately, while Arkansas was able to generate big plays last week against LSU last week, despite the absence of a passing attack. When in doubt, ride with the rushing dog.
The play: Arkansas 1*
No. 19 Nebraska +4 @ No. 8 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM, ABC
I'm really not sure how to view Oklahoma at this point. On one hand, I could easily argue that they are fortunate just to be here. However, at the same time, they probably should be 11-1 coming in as their loss to Oregon was and still is a total joke.
Nebraska enters Kansas City a strong 9-3 with the three losses coming at USC, vs. Texas, and at an up-and-coming Oklahoma State team. Their balanced attack will present a challenge for a solid Oklahoma defense.
I'm worried about Nebraska's ability to stop Oklahoma's rushing attack, but if they commit to stopping the run and force Paul Thompson to beat them, then I think they will be okay. Look for Bill Callahan and the Huskers to beat the Sooners outright and grab a surprise BCS berth in the process.
The play: Nebraska 2*
Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.