Simon unpacks the Iran war's tentative ceasefire talks, why Goldman Sachs revised its Brent forecast to $85, and what happens to oil and interest rates if the conflict drags on.

Monday's sharp gold selloff gets a post-mortem: leveraged FOMO unwinds, Turkey tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a year of doubling.

Two stock ideas round out the episode: Rocket Lab (RKLB) for pure-play space exposure and Franco Nevada (FNV) as a low-risk gold streaming alternative to miners.

Plus the MPC rate decision preview and a quick plug for the new AI in the Wild column.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50/litre and diesel up ~R7.50/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can.

🛢️ Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100/barrel (currently ~$103.50) — briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels — largely Iranian-linked ships — are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have cut production. Strategic oil reserves are being released globally.

📉 Market Reactions Drops from the start of the war's close: China -1%, US -4%, UK -5%, Europe -6%, India -8%, Japan -9%, South Korea -12%, UAE -15%, SA -~10%. The rand at R16.72, SA 10-year bond yield has surged from below 8% to 8.9% — a massive move.

🌍 Emerging Market Risks A deep dive into countries with high USD-denominated debt and heavy oil imports. The most vulnerable: Mozambique (38% USD debt), Ghana (28%), Egypt (27%), Sri Lanka (26%), Pakistan (22%). Egypt is the only one in the MSCI EM Index — at a 0.03% weighting — so the direct ETF risk is limited. But Egypt and Pakistan carry real standalone risk.

🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices Urea (a byproduct of LNG) is largely sourced from the UAE — and it's not moving right now. Fertilizer prices are spiking. Combined with diesel costs, food price inflation is coming — just with a lag. Casey Sprake (AG Capital) maps the timeline: transport 1–3 months, food 1–3 months, broader CPI 4 months, electricity up to a year.

🛒 Mr. Price* Update The investor presentation on the German fashion retailer acquisition landed today. Stock was up ~2.5% earlier but has since retreated into the red — not an aggressive selloff, with support just below R170.

📊 Results Roundup

• AVI — solid numbers, strong margin protection, fashion had a surprisingly good December
• Weaver Fintech (formerly HomeChoice) — buy-now-pay-later funnel leading into unsecured credit and insurance; majority female customer base; a neat business model
• Absa — not bad
• Standard Bank — exceptional cost discipline
• Optasia* — maiden results, trading around listing price of ~R19, P/E ~30x but expected to grow at ~30%, PEG ~1

💻 SaaS Check-in The "SaaS is dead" debate continues. Mass layoffs (e.g. Block shedding ~4,000 staff) mean lost per-seat licences and potential revenue pressure. Worth watching, but tech hiring data still skews net positive for now.

🏦 Fed Chair Watch Trump's nominee Kevin Walsh hasn't been sent to the Senate yet — possibly compliance issues (Walsh's spouse is a billionaire). Senator Tillis (R) says he won't vote for any Fed chair nominee until charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Jerome Powell's term ends end of May. Outcome unclear.

🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes Non-alcoholic beer, hummus, croissants, motorhomes and international rail fares are being added. Wine categories merged. Vegetables better represented. February data drops 25 March.

🤖 AI in the Wild Simon shares a cautionary Claude Opus 4.6 experience — building a detailed initiation report on ADvTech* worked well in parts, but the final consolidation hit rate limits, produced a corrupted document, and then delivered a garbled output with wrong JSE codes and incorrect founder attribution. A reminder that very long context windows can degrade LLM output quality.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT

🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing

With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.

Simon's strategy right now?

🧘 Do nothing.

Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.

🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120

Oil has been incredibly volatile.

📊 Recent moves

• Early January: ~$60
• Monday spike: ~$120
• Tuesday: briefly below $90
• Current level: ~$91

That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.

The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

🚢 Shipping traffic

• Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day
• Last Wednesday: 0 barrels
• Monday: ~20% of normal

Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.

⛽ What This Means for South Africa

Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.

💸 Earlier estimates suggested:

• Petrol: +R5.40
• Diesel: +R10

After oil pulled back slightly:

• Petrol increase may be ~R3
• Diesel ~R5

Still extremely painful for the economy.

📈 Inflation & Interest Rates

Oil shocks ripple through inflation.

📊 Rule of thumb:
Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.

With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:

➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation

For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.

🏦 Rate Cuts Are Off the Table

Upcoming meetings:

• 🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March
• 🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 March

Previously expected: rate cuts.

Now?

❌ Cuts unlikely

Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.

⚔️ The War Question

Markets are asking one thing:

How long does this conflict last?

Current signals:

• Iran says it won't capitulate
• US and Israel still active
• UAE attacks have slowed

One possible constraint: missile inventories.

Iran's cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.

At some point, stocks run out.

🛢️ G7 Emergency Oil Plan

The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.

📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels

Possible release:

➡️ 300–400 million barrels

This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.

That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.

📉 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios

Best Case

✔ Conflict ends within weeks
✔ Strategic reserves released
✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s

Worst Case

🔥 War escalates
🔥 Shipping disruptions persist
🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200

At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.

🤖 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto Call

Standard Bank has launched a new structured product.

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Key features:

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📥 Minimum investment: R25,000

🧠 Index Constituents

The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.

Top holdings include:

• Nvidia
• Palantir
• Snowflake
• AMD
• Broadcom
• SoundHound AI
• Kingsoft Cloud
• BigBear.ai
• DataVault
• Zenitech

Total: 30 companies in the index.

🇿🇦 SA GDP: Small Steps Forward

South Africa released Q4 GDP.

📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%

Full-year growth:

• 2024: 0.5%
• 2025: 1.1%

Not amazing, but improving.

Forecast for 2026:

📈 1.6% – 1.8%

If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.

🎬 Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again…)

The media industry continues consolidating.

Deal overview:

💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery
📦 Price: ~$100 billion

Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.

💵 Result:

• Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee
• Its stock jumped ~15%

🇨🇳 Tencent Joins the Deal

New twist:

Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.

For South African investors:

Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.

Yes… it's complicated.

🎥 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad Idea

The concerns:

📉 Traditional media is declining
🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content
🏛️ Politics may influence the deal

Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.

Simon's take:

This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.

🕒 Market Hours Change

The US switched to daylight savings.

New trading times for South Africa:

📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)

✈️ Personal Note

Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew's 18th birthday.

Time flies.

✔ Key Takeaway

Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.

Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it.

Key Changes:

• 📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000
• 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m
• 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%)
• 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m
• 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k
• 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000
• 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m

After years of "tax by stealth," this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses.

💡 Lump Sum vs Monthly Tax-Free?

Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests:

• ✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms.
• 📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points.

Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn't deployed it yet 👀

💻 Dell Delivers 🚀

Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%.

• Entry around $118
• Now trading near $153
• AI infrastructure demand driving upside
• Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesis

US markets don't play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively.

🌍 Oil Shock: War & Market Volatility 🛢️🔥

The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically.

Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center.

Key Developments:

• ⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz
• 🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity
• 🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+
• 💸 Rand weakened to 16.36
• 📉 JSE down over 4%

About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption:

• 🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher
• 📈 Risks inflation spikes
• 🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March)
• 🌍 Raises global recession concerns

Possible Scenarios:

1. Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80
2. Prolonged tension → Oil $90+
3. Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk

South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk.

📌 Key message: Don't panic. Stay long-term focused.

🚗 Vehicle Sales: Still Surging 🚙📊

February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again:

• 🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year)
• 📈 Local sales up 11%
• 📉 Exports down 28%
• 📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10%

Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share.

Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient.

🤖 AI + Investing: Deep-Dive into SaaS 📈

Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research.

SaaS Sell-Off = Opportunity?

Basket explored:

• Salesforce
• Adobe
• Intuit
• ServiceNow
• Workday
• Datadog

Preferred picks:
✅ Salesforce
✅ Adobe
✅ Intuit

AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week's pricing).

Key insight:
Replacing enterprise software isn't about code — it's about retraining millions of users.

🎯 Final Thoughts

Markets are volatile.
War introduces uncertainty.
Oil is the key risk variable.

But:

• 🧠 Stay rational
• ⏳ Stay long term
• 💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully
• 🚫 Don't panic

If you've got time on your side — don't stress your portfolio.

See you next week 👋

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Simon Brown hosts and his guests are;

• The Hon Ashor Sarupen Dep Fin Minister
• Mamello Matikinca chief economist at FNB
• Dr Christo Wiese – business man
• Dr Albertus Marais – Partner AJM

📅 25 February 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft

⚡ Eskom: 280 Days Without Load Shedding

• South Africa has now reached 280 days without load shedding. Standard Bank's electricity tracker report highlights that the last significant outages were 26 hours across April and May 2025, taking the effective streak back to 26 March 2024. After 17 years of load shedding since 2008, the energy availability factor and other key metrics are looking dramatically better. Credit goes to Eskom's operational improvements, industrial-scale solar and wind investment, and households with rooftop solar installations.

🇺🇸 Trump's Tariff Chaos: Supreme Court Ruling & What Comes Next

The ruling: The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose tariffs, finding no international emergency existed. This is a significant legal defeat.

The refund problem: Roughly $150–170 billion in tariffs have been collected. Companies like Walmart and Costco will want that money back, since the Supreme Court has effectively declared these tariffs illegal. Chief Justice Roberts acknowledged the refund process will be "messy" — an understatement.

Trump's new move: On Friday evening, Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, signing an executive order imposing a flat 10% tariff on all countries (with the law allowing up to 15%). This is a notable reduction for South Africa, which was previously on 30%. However, this only runs for 150 days, expiring mid-July.

Other legal avenues Trump could pursue:

Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): Used against China in his first term, but requires formal investigations and findings — too slow for Trump's style.

Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930): Allows up to 50% tariffs without investigation, has never been used, and would almost certainly face court challenges.

The bottom line: Tariffs aren't going away. Trump views them as a political weapon and a negotiating stick. He'll keep finding new legislative tools to wield them. Around a dozen trade deals have been signed under the "90 deals in 90 days" framework, though countries that signed early (like the UK at ~10%) may feel they overpaid.

📢 Upcoming Event: Protecting Your Portfolio & Navigating Scams

🗓️ 24 March | 11:00 AM | Webcast with 1nvest

First in a series covering protecting your portfolio and navigating scams, with social media red flags guidance from Lungeli at 1nvest, plus a conversation with 1nvest's compliance officer on what financial advice looks like (and what it doesn't). Future webcasts will cover emerging markets vs tech vs developed markets, income investing, and commodities.

👉 More info and booking at **JustOneLap.com/events**

💻 SaaS Stocks Under Pressure: Is Vibe Coding Really the Threat?

Software-as-a-service stocks have been hammered on fears that "vibe coding" (using AI tools to build software) could replace platforms like Salesforce. Simon is sceptical — replacing the software is perhaps 10% of the challenge. The real difficulty is retraining tens of thousands of staff, migrating data without losses, and managing a massive transition process.

Goldman Sachs' SOHO Index shows capital-heavy stocks (manufacturers, farmers) up nearly 40% since June 2025, while capital-light stocks (Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet) have been largely flat — a notable divergence.

IBM dropped ~10% on news that Anthropic's Claude Code can convert COBOL to modern languages, but Simon remains cautious about overhyping AI capabilities. He's currently reviewing a 20-page AI-generated SaaS research report from Claude Opus 4.6 and will report back next week.

💰 Budget 2026 Preview

What to expect:

Fiscal drag relief is likely, funded by extra revenue from precious metals booms (higher corporate tax and dividend tax from gold and PGM miners) and SARS's clampdown on arrears (~R20 billion recovered).

Tax-free savings annual limit could increase from R36,000 — possibly to R40,000 or even R60,000 (per Nireena Fissa of ETFSA, since 60,000 divides neatly by 12). This costs Treasury very little in the short term since the big capital gains tax hit is years away.

Reg 28 changes: Unlikely — these would cost Treasury money immediately.

Capital gains exclusion (R40,000): Unlikely to change despite being unchanged for over a decade — another stealth tax.

Interest exemptions: No changes expected.

Simon's tax tip: He's been selling down long-held ETF positions (originally ITRIX, now Cygnia World) to use the R40,000 annual CGT exclusion, then reinvesting into a different ETF with a better total expense ratio. Important: don't sell and rebuy the same instrument immediately — SARS treats that as "washing."

Overall expectation: A boring budget, which is exactly what markets want.

📊 Commodities Check-In

Palladium 🔩 Broke through $1,100 and $1,200 early last year, pulled back to $1,350 late in 2025, now consolidating around $1,617–$1,700. Support sits at the $1,650–$1,700 level. Not going to the moon, but holding at higher levels — which is what matters.

Platinum 🪙 Broke $1,000 in June, then $1,250 in July. Has since consolidated around the $2,000–$2,150 range, well off the $2,800 high but maintaining higher support levels. Results from Sibanye-Stillwater, Impala Platinum, and Northam confirm the improved earnings picture.

Gold  Currently at $5,153 and running hard. Simon admits gold has proved him wrong — after January's volatile drop of nearly $1,000 from the $5,600 high to the Monday low, he expected consolidation around $4,500 or even $4,000. Instead, gold consolidated around $5,000 and has resumed its rally. His advice for those who feel they've "missed" the run: scale in gradually, buying a third at current prices and adding on dips or at intervals.

Brent Crude Oil  Had been under pressure until the US detained the president of Venezuela (heavy, sour crude — less critical but still impactful). Oil briefly dipped below $60 but has since recovered. The $70–$71.50 level is important resistance; a break above targets $80 and then mid-$80s. Looks like a short-term blip for now — hopefully not the start of a longer trend.

💱 Rand/Dollar Update The rand is trading around R16.02 to the dollar, with the trend firmly toward a weaker dollar. Foreigners have been net buyers of South African bonds, and the US dollar index continues to show weakness — something Trump actively wants. If the dollar loses another 7–8%, that could push the rand into the mid-R14s. Sounds dramatic, but as Simon puts it: "Don't fight the rand."

🎙️ Next week:

Budget reaction + AI SaaS research report review

Thanks for listening — look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too. ✌️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

18 February 2025

🇿🇦 South African Economic Indicators

• Unemployment hits 5-year low - but still a tragic 31.4%
• The Achilles heel: Need GDP growth to break below 20%
• 10-year bond yields at decade lows - 7.97% (down from 11% during load shedding)
• Government saving on new bond issuances, though impact is modest
• Potential budget windfall from precious metals next week

ZA 10-year yield | weekly

🤖 AI Valuations: Testing Anthropic's Opus 4.6

• Can AI do DCF valuations? Testing on Dell (NYSE: DELL)
• Opus 4.6 created detailed discounted cash flow model in ~10 minutes
• 148 formulas, zero errors (after self-correction)
• Fair value estimate: $172 vs current ~$115 (significant upside potential)
• ⚠️ Important caveats: Sensitivity assumptions critical (WACC, terminal growth, risk-free rate)
• DCF is just ONE valuation methodology
• Rate limiting kicks in with heavy usage ($20/month tier)
• US stocks work better than local stocks currently

💼 US Economy Update

• Strong fundamentals emerging:
  • $600B+ capex spend by hyperscalers (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft)
  • Better-than-expected January CPI
  • Unemployment at 4.3% (jobs report revised down 1M though)
  • GDP tracking closer to 3% than 1-1.5%
• Two rate cuts still on the table for 2025
• Tech infrastructure spending providing economic underpin

🚚 The Karaoke Company Logistics Disruption (?)

• Algorhythm stock chaos: Up 222% Friday, another 15% pre-market Tuesday
• From karaoke company to AI logistics software ("SemiCab") in 6 months
• Entire logistics sector sold off on the news
• Reality check needed: Santova and others already doing this with Oscar software
• Market overreaction? Small operators still use fax machines
• Don't panic-short established players like Santova

📅 Upcoming Events

• Power Hour Thursday 5:30pm - Tax efficiency & ETF revolution (Standard Bank Rosebank or webcast)
• ETF database updated with FNB, 10X, 1nnvest, Satrix funds
• Budget next Wednesday - Simon will be in Cape Town

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail and Shyft

"Look after yourself. If you can look after somebody else as well." 💚

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🌍 This week in markets

• Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus 💰🏗️
• Markets appear calmer – the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us 😮‍💨
• Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners ⛏️₿
• A deep dive into junior miners – why so many of them struggle ⚒️📉

🏗️ Hyperscalers go full throttle

• 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations
• 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included
• The hyperscalers:
  • Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon ☁️
• The "shovel sellers":
  • Nvidia*, ASML*, TSMC 🧑‍🏭🪓
• Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light
• Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages ⚠️📉

"Nothing good happens below the 200-day."

📊 Stocks & charts

• Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress
• Nvidia* and ASML* still look healthy on the charts ✅
• Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy 🍏
• 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely 👀

🤖 Software shock & AI disruption

• Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure
• New AI tools like Claude and "vibe coding" spooking SaaS names 💻😬
• Reality check:
  • Niche software may struggle
  • Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace

🪙 Bitcoin, gold & currencies

• Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k
• Mining economics tight at current prices ⚠️
• Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate 🥇🔥
• Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength 💵⬇️ 🇿🇦⬆️

🌐 The debasement trade

• Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries
• China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying 🇨🇳📉
• Key takeaway:
  • This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade 🐢
• Governments reduce debt via:
  • Inflation
  • Currency weakness

🖥️ A possible opportunity: servers

• Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected
• Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~⅓ just on replacement 🔁
• Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? 🖥️📦
  • Forward PE near 10
  • Analysts broadly constructive

⚒️ Junior miners: why it's so hard

• Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes*
• The commodity may be in the ground – but:
  • Extraction is complex
  • Capital is hard to raise
  • Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter 🚧
• Junior mining = high risk by design 🎢
• Even experienced operators fail

📢 Events & deadlines

• Power Hour – 19 February
  🕠 17:30 | 💻 Webinar or 🏢 Rosebank
  • Tax-free investing beyond TFSA
  • ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28
• Important reminder ⏰
  • Many providers have early contribution deadlines
  • Don't leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute

👉 More info: justonelap.com/events

🙌 Wrapping up

• CapEx boom isn't over – but cracks are forming
• AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven
• Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving
• Stay cautious, stay curious

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📅 Recorded: Tuesday midday | 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown

This week on Worldwide Markets, we unpack a wild ride across commodities, central banks, tech titans, and global trade — with gold stealing the spotlight once again.

🟡 Has Gold Bottomed?

Gold went vertical — and then snapped back hard.

• 📈 Ran from around $4,300 → $5,600, before a brutal sell-off

• 📉 Dropped to $4,600, now stabilising near $4,900

• 🕯️ That giant red "kangaroo tail" candle looks ugly — but…

The bigger picture hasn't changed:

• 💵 Debasement trade still intact

• 🌍 Central banks bought ~800 tonnes last year

• 🏦 ETF investors were big buyers again after selling in 2024

➡️ Verdict: Likely consolidation, not collapse. Sideways is the base case.

Gold |Weekly | 03 February 2026

🧱 Commodities Ran Too Hot

It wasn't just gold:

• 🔩 Copper, silver, platinum, palladium all surged

• 🛢️ Brent crude nearly hit $70

• 🪨 Aluminium hit US record prices, creating transatlantic arbitrage

Nothing goes straight up forever — profit-taking was inevitable.

🪙 What About Silver?

Simon stays honest here:

• ❓ Industrial demand and price dislocations matter

• ⚠️ But silver remains complex and opaque

💡 Portfolio stance:

• ✅ Holding gold miners

• ✅ Holding gold ETFs (local & offshore)

• ❌ No silver exposure — and comfortable with that

🏦 Fed Drama: Enter Steve Walsh

Trump's Fed chair nominee spooked markets — but context matters:

• 🔄 Walsh is not a hawk, more a rate flip-flopper

• 🗳️ Previously opposed rate cuts… until Trump won

• 📉 Trump wants lower rates — Walsh says he'll deliver

The challenge?

• 🧠 Convincing the rest of the FOMC

• 🪑 Jerome Powell still has influence for now

➡️ Expect noise, not an instant policy pivot.

🚀 SpaceX + xAI = Trillion-Dollar IPO?

Big Elon energy this week:

• 🛰️ SpaceX acquires xAI

• 🧠 Grok + data + power + space = big ambitions

• 📊 IPO rumoured for mid-2026

• 💰 Valuation likely north of $1 trillion

Simon likes SpaceX… less excited by the social-media side.

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales: Still Strong

January numbers surprised again:

• 📊 Sales near levels last seen in 2019 / early 2022

• 🏆 Toyota leads, but Chinese brands keep climbing

• 🇨🇳 Chery, GWM, JAC & friends reshaping the market

Consumers are still buying — despite high rates.

🤝 US–India Trade "Peace"… Sort Of

A deal was announced, but details are fuzzy:

• 📉 Tariffs reduced (somewhat)

• 🛢️ India supposedly to stop buying Russian oil (👀)

• 💸 India to buy $500bn of US goods (timeline unclear)

History lesson:

• 🌮 Trump tariff threats turn real only ~20% of the time

• ⚖️ Supreme Court still deciding if Trump even has the authority

➡️ Lots of headlines, fewer guarantees.

🎓 Upcoming Event: Power Hour

📅 19 February
📍 Rosebank (in-person) + webcast
💡 Topic: Tax-Free Investing & ETFs

👉 Book at justonelap.com/events

👋 Closing Thoughts

Markets are noisy, emotional, and fast — but the big-picture trends still matter more than the candles.

Until next week:
🤍 Look after yourself
🤍 And if you can, look after someone else too

Cheers! 🍻

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📅 28 January | Recorded late Tuesday afternoon
Host: Simon Brown

Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing 🌍💳

This week a quick look at gold and the Rand, both did what was expected over the year in the first month.

Then picks for the Cristal Challenge 2026 and the Moneyweb Investor Challenge.

Three bankers that go into each challenge. Then four floaters, two per each challenge to mix it up a bit.

Best of luck to all who enter :)

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

First they check in and mark what they said last year. Then they each offer three predictions for the year ahead and a view on the Top40 and Rand/

Find last years show here.

🎙️ The Best and Worst of the JSE in 2025

📅 10 December 2025
🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🏁 Opening Thoughts

• Last podcast of 2025! 🎉

• A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏

• A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈

• Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞

🎥 Power Hour Recap — Position Your Portfolio for 2026

📌 Highlights included:

• 🔙 Looking back at 2025's predictions (keeping it honest!)

• 🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch

• 💰 Gold & commodities outlook

• 🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks

• 🚀 IPO environment

• 🧭 Positioning for 2026

Watch here.

🥇 Best Performers of the JSE in 2025

🪙 1. Precious Metals: The Dominant Theme of 2025

Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren't in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark.

Top returns (total return to 8 Dec):

• 🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯

• 🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240%

• 🥉 Northam — +214%

• 🏅 Gold Fields — +195%

• Implats — +153%

• Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range

• Harmony — +119%

📌 Why the boom?

• Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕

• Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock

• Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations

💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels.

🎓 2. Education Sector Winners

• 🎓 Stadio — +89%

• 🧑‍🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals

• 📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20%

🟣 3. Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• +87% 🚀

• Bull markets = busy brokers

• Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact

📡 4. Telcos Roar Back (From a Very Low Base)

• 📱 MTN — +76%

• 🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum)

• 🔌 IOCA — +65%

• ☎️ Telkom — +60%

• 🟥 Vodacom — +38%

📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast.

💰 5. Standout Financials & Miscellaneous

• 🟪 Sygnia — +72%

• 💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer)

• 🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!)

• 🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43%

• 🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends)

• 🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc.

• 🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40%

• 💼 Capitec — +29%

• 🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec

• 🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split)

• 🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite)

🛒 6. Retail: The Year's Big Disappointment

• 🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list)

• 🥩 Spur — +15%

• 🍗 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🛒 Shoprite* — –4.6% (value emerging)

• 🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround)

• 👗 Mr Price* — –26% (Simon still sees value)

• 👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery

🔻 Worst Performers of the JSE in 2025

💥 Biggest Losers

• 🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52%

• 👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50%

• 📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges)

• 🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity)

• 💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak)

• 🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out)

• 📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling

🛒 Retailers Under Pressure

• 🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite* + Pick n Pay)

• 👖 Mr Price* — –26%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling

📉 Macro, Risks & 2026 Outlook

🌱 Green Shoots in South Africa

• Early signs of improvement appearing

• Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets

• REITs & banks starting from low valuations

⚠️ Risks

• Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside

• A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard

• External shocks more dangerous than local issues

📈 Global Watch: The Mag 7 & Market Signals

• Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA

• Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering

• Nvidia chart still healthy

• Gold still bullish

• Oil looks very weak

🤝 Closing the Year

Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism:

• ✨ "It's been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns."

• ❄️ Be safe this festive season

• 🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics)

• 🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they'll mark themselves before forecasting ahead.

🔗 Powered By

🏦 Standard Bank Global Markets
🌍 Shyft – the global money app
💸 Cheapest Forex rates, anywhere, anytime

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

"It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It"

📆 3 December 2025
🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully

• Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.

• If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you'd think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.

• Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market

• Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI's multi-billion dollar spend.

• Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China's rapid AI emergence.

• Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere

• Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.

• Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.

• Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.

🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts

• SA tried three times to get a budget passed.

• Rand collapses into "Liberation Tariff Day", hits 19.90 → quickly followed by "90 deals in 90 days" promises.

• Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery

• US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.

• By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.

• Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025

• Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.

• Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon's Mind

• Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:

  • ❌ slow

  • ❌ bad at text

  • ❌ struggles with edits

• NanoBanana + Gemini 3:

  • ⚡ insanely fast

  • 🔠 perfect text edits

  • 🎨 clean output

• Alphabet has:

  • 💰 massive free cash flow

  • 🌐 billions of users

  • 📢 advertising infrastructure

• → Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping?

• Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.

• Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:

  • ⬇️ Only Meta is below.

  • Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.

• Conclusion:

  • 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it's not bursting yet.

  • More insights coming in the Power Hour.

[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]

🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly

• Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn't reacting positively.

• Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.

• Breaking support levels:

  • ⚠️ If current zone doesn't hold → sub-$70k likely.

• Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:

  • 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.

  • ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]

🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots

Q3 2025 GDP:

• 📈 +0.5% QoQ

• 📈 +2.1% YoY

• 🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.

  • Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

🏦 Banks Benefit Most

Reasons:

• 👍 GDP uptick

• ⬆️ Credit upgrades

• ⬇️ Lower expected inflation

• ⬇️ Lower rates coming

• 🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

• Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×

• Yields: high single digits

• Winners depend on style:

  • 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank

  • ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB

  • 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch

• Formerly Capital & Counties.

• Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.

• Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.

• Fundamentals:

  • 💰 Single-digit PE (~8)

  • 📉 Yield 2.7%

  • 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10

• Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone

• SA REITs had:

  • 🚀 Huge 2024

  • 📈 Strong 2025

• Many now trade around NAV:

  • Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV

  • Octodec → still at discount

• Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.

• Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.

• If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025

• Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.

• Small caps that surprised everyone.

• Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

👋 Wrap-Up

A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA's slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always:
💙 Look after yourself.
🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

dd

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 658

📅 26 November 2025
🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🔥 This Week's Big Themes

• 📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate!

• 💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction

• 🥇 Harmony goes big on copper

• 🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery

• 📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks

• 🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product

• 🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

🏭 Invicta Results — A Deep Value SA Inc Play

• 🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia.

• 🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments.

• 💰 Valuation extremely cheap:

  • PE < 5

  • Dividend yield > 3%

  • Price-to-book: 0.7

• 🚧 SA's weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.

• ⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

🥢 Prosus / Naspers / Tencent — Cash Flow Turns Positive

• 💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m.

• 💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves.

• 🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified "super-app" model.

• 🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:

  • 🎮 Tencent Games

  • 🎵 Tencent Music

  • 📺 Online ads

  • 📱 WeChat ecosystem

  • 🎥 Epic Games stake

  • 🎞️ TikTok-style platforms

• 🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

💻 Nvidia — Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls?

• 📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia.

• 🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility.

• 🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon.

• ⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still "B-grade".

• 📉 Technically:

  • Support at ~$180

  • Next support ~$166

  • Further support ~$150s

• 🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into "yes, it is a bubble" — but bubbles go UP before they pop.

• 📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals:

  • Only Meta sits below (-10%).

  • Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).

  • Amazon also soft (+5%).

🥇 Harmony — From Gold to Copper Giant?

• 🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia.

• 🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25).

• ⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings.

• 🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha's view:

  • ✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures

  • ✔️ Some risk hedging between metals

• ⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge.

• 🔌 Copper = "metal of the future" (again) due to electrification & green tech.

🧠 Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!)

• 🧺 Basket:

  • 🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ)

  • 🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB)

• 💸 Auto-call feature:

  • Year 1: If both indices are positive → 16% payout

  • If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year

  • Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%

• 🛡️ Capital protection:

  • 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity

• 💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)

• 🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025

• 📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker.

📈 10-Year JSE Winners — The Miners Dominate

🥇 Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends)

• 🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!)

• 🥈 Gold Fields — 37%

• 🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends)

• ⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends

• ⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5%

• 🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner)

• 💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25%

• 🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total

• 🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+

• 🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37%

📉 Big Losers (per-year declines)

• 🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26%

• 📦 Nampak — -18%

• 🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5%

• 🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14%

• 💊 Aspen — -10%

• 🛢️ Sasol — -10%

• 🏘️ Balwin — -7%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — -7%

• 🧱 PPC — -5%

• 🛒 Pick n Pay — -5%

• 🏥 Netcare — -4.8%

• 🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

📊 Top 40 — 10-Year Benchmark Performance

• 📈 118% total return over 10 years

• 📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends)

• 📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019)

• 📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis

• 🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable.

📣 Call to Action

💬 Tell us in the comments:

• Which 10-year winners do you own?

• Which stats shocked you most?

• What's your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets

Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.

🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop?

Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast)
Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.

His exit rule:

➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta).
➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.

Current Status:

• Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗

• Microsoft: +5.4% above

• Amazon: +6.5% above

• Others still safely above.

👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory.
👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.

Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.

📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs

Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:

🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF)

• Quarterly dividends

• TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)

• Tax-free account eligible

• ~20-year unit trust track record

🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF)

• Accumulating (rolls up dividends)

• ~9% USD yield target

• Pays in ZAR on the JSE

• ~4.5% current USD yield

Full explainer webcast here 🎥.

🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa

Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:

1️⃣ Greylist Exit

SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.

2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives

• Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).

• Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this.

• Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs.

• Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.

3️⃣ New Inflation Target

• Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯.

• Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.

4️⃣ MPC Outlook

• Inflation at 3.4% — within band

• Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.

5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade

S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.

• First upgrade in 16 years ⭐

• Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.

Moody's review coming in December.

6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now)

• Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊.

• Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.

7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly

• Budget passed without drama

• Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.

⚠️ But:

• Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔

• Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues
  → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.

🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now!

Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026

• Limited in-person seats

• Webcast available

• Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)

• Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.

👉 Book here

📈 Company Results Round-Up

🐔 Astral Foods

A horror first half… turned around:

What improved:

• Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%

• Power issues stabilised

• Independent water supply

• Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️

• Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels

Outlook:
CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.

🚗 WeBuyCars

Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.

Pressures:

• Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳

• Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)

Their response:

• Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands

• Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon

• Record 16,000 monthly sales

• Scale still growing

Valuation:
Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.

💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager)

• Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM

• Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)

• PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics

• Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell

• Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price)

🏛️ Coronation

• Last year's SARS case win inflated the base
  → No repeat special dividends
  → Lower YoY numbers expected.

💱 Rand & Commodities

🇿🇦 Rand

• Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023)

• Now back around 17.20

• Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour.

🪙 Gold

• Holding firm, not running

• Key levels:

  • Support: ~R39,20

  • Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks

• Currently steady around R4,050.

📉 Markets & Crypto

• S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4%

• Nasdaq: ~5–5.5%
  → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️.

₿ Bitcoin

• Looking rough under R90,000

⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday

A major market catalyst.
Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.

🔭 Coming Up Next Week

Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈
(Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.)

Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸

1) JSE Under Pressure 🏛️⚖️

Two issues in the spotlight:

a) Competition Commission Complaint
A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected.

b) Matengu Allegations
Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors.

• JSE has fired back and asked: Produce the emails.
• There is also a clear seller overhang (ex-director wanting out), which explains the price pressure more plausibly.

Takeaway: Overhang selling often looks like manipulation. But without proof, it's just selling pressure.

2) Should We Scrap SENS Announcements & HEPS? 🤔📰

The JSE is consulting on two potential changes:

• Reduce some SENS announcements (e.g., administrative ETF notices, floating rate resets, etc.)
• Possibly remove HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share)

Simon's view:
🚫 Do not remove HEPS.
HEPS is invaluable as an adjusted earnings measure, especially in SA where one-off corporate events are common. The process cost argument doesn't justify removing a critical metric.

4) Don't Fight the Trend 🟢📈

Two strong trends right now:

a) Gold 🥇

• Back above $4,100/oz after two brief red weeks.
• Long-term trend still strongly up.
• No point trying to call tops – enjoy the trend while it runs.

b) Rand 🇿🇦💪

• Strengthening since the "liberation blowout" in April (~19.90).
• Now around R17.14 – and trend still down (strengthening).
• This is not just USD weakness.
• Big inflows into SA bonds + stronger commodity prices supporting.

Next key level: R17 → If broken, expect move to low R15s.

5) Results Round-Up 📊💼

6) KAP (PG Bison, UniTrans, beds, auto aftermarket) 🛏️🚚🛠️

• Earnings slump → PE looked blown out, but forward expectations show return to single-digit PE once capex is absorbed.
• Small-caps remain deeply unloved.
• Worth watching, but needs a catalyst.

7) Gold Miners – Pick Your Favourite ⛏️✨

If gold keeps running, most producers will make serious money.

Simon's preferences:

• AngloGold Ashanti* (ANG) – strong price action, holding trends well.
• Pan African (PAN) – up 7x since Oct 2022.

Others:

• Harmony – now has meaningful copper exposure.
• Sibanye* – gold + PGMs.

ETF option: Satrix RESI* – doubled this year (helped heavily by gold).

⏳ How long to hold?
While gold trend remains intact.

Events & Dates 🗓️

• Monday 17 November @ 10:00 – 91 Income ETFs webcast
  Book: justonelap.com/events
• Friday 8 December – Final Power Hour:
  "Position Your Portfolio for 2026"
  Bookings open next week.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Date: 5 November
Host: Simon Brown
Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

🎙️ This Week's Big Questions

• When will markets crash? 🤯📉

• Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼

• Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔

• SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

🚀 Shyft Migration Update

If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out.
🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

🔔 Optasia* Listing – A Calm Debut

• IPO priced at R19

• Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day)

• No big pop → but not a failure

• Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days

• Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon's stance:
✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation
✔️ Holding
✔️ Looking to build the position over time

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales – Strong Again

October sales: 55,960 units
➡️ Best October since 2014
📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season
✅ Still good news for motor retailers

🇿🇦 Potential Sovereign Ratings Upgrade?

• SA remains junk with Moody's, Fitch & S&P Global

• Outlooks have shifted flat → positive

• S&P may consider upgrade in November

• MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue
  → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But…
💬 Citadel's Maarten Ackerman: "Not so fast — upgrade may still take time."

Key stat:
Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

🪙 Gold – Consolidating at $3,950–$4,050

• Price: $3,964 at recording

• Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors):
  → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run

• Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

🌏 China–US Trade "Peace"?

• Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients

• China offers:

  • Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)

  • Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality:
China still holds the real leverage here.

📉 Market Crash Fears – Let's Talk About It

✔️ Will markets crash?

Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

❓ When?

Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

🧱 Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

There are always scary headlines.

🎯 Key Takeaways

• Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly.

• Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold.

• Timing the bottom is even harder.

• If you're worried → trim, rebalance, don't go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Conclusion:
Staying invested wins — unless you're already drawing retirement income.

🏁 Final Thoughts

• Markets will crash — we just don't know when

• Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don't try to be clever

• And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ "Gold took us up … and gold will take us down."

🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride

• Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it's leading it back down.
• Year-to-date returns:
  • Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
  • Excluding dividends!
• Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
• The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market's ~20 %.
• Translation: half this year's gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
• Simon spots a "kangaroo-tail" reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉.
• Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn't over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰.
• For those who "missed" gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

💡 Optasia IPO Extended

• Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
• Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼.
• Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊.
• Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.

🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes

• Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %.
• HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 ("fair").
• Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️.
• Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins.
• Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.

🏠 Balwin Results

• Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
• No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus.
• Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
• Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️.
• Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.

⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up

• Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow.
• Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
• Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100.
• Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
• Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.

🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery

• Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉.
• Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper).
• Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
• Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs

• Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
• Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
• US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them.
• Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
  • Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he'll lose ⚖️.
  • Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters.
  • Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓

🏦 Shift Migration Update

• Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲.
• Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
• If you haven't been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
• Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.

💬 Final Thought

"Gold gave us the party — and now it's calling last rounds."
Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don't lose the big picture.

Simon Brown
🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown
📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 21 October 2025
📈 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft – The global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand.

💥 Local Markets Crushed

A brutal day on the JSE as the market closed down 2.5%, with resources tumbling 7.8% despite a steady rand (R17.43).

• Gold miners collapsed: Implats & Sibanye -10%, Gold Fields & Harmony -9%, AngloGold* -8%.

• PGMs also fell hard: Northam & Impala down over 7%.

• Retail pain: TFG* dropped a shocking 16.6% after a poor trading update, dragging down Pepkor, Mr Price*, and even WeBuyCars.

• U.S. markets were red but only mildly so — calm compared to SA's bloodbath.

🪙 Gold: After 9 Green Weeks, the Pullback Arrives

Gold finally broke its 10-week winning streak, plunging from $4,378 to $4,122 — a $250 drop in two days 😬

• Simon notes this was inevitable after nine straight weeks of gains.

• Likely short-term support around $3,950–$4,000, with potential consolidation below $4,000.

• Despite the scare, the Satrix Resi is still up over 100% for 2025.
  💡 Lesson: even in a bull run, sharp corrections are part of the journey.

🧠 Optasia: AI Fintech Listing on the JSE

A major new listing — Optasia (code: OPA) — is set to debut 3 November.
Valued at around R20–25 billion, it's one of the largest fintech listings in years.

Key Facts:

• Business: Micro-loans & airtime credit to the unbanked and underbanked.

• Reach: 38 markets (Africa, Asia, Middle East, Europe).

• Scale:

  • 120 million customers/month

  • 32 million loans/day

  • $13m total daily loan value

• Average loan: $5 (microfinance) and $0.25 (airtime credit)

• Defaults: impressively low at 1.14% 💪

• Backers: Standard Bank, RMB, EcoBank, MTN, Vodacom, Airtel, Zain, and more.

• Listing price range: R15.50–R19.00 per share.

• Lockup: 180 days for sellers, 365 for directors.

• Existing shareholder exit: Ethos Capital (EPE) partially selling down.

Simon's Take 🎯

• Solid business with real revenue and strong growth (≈90% YoY in 2025H1).

• But… valuation not cheap (PE ≈ mid-20s).

• Concerns over allocation uncertainty and currency/regulatory risks in frontier markets.

• 💬 Verdict: "I'm not applying — great business, fair valuation, but not compelling enough."

🚗 CMH* (Combined Motor Holdings): Excellent Results & Share Buyback

Vehicle sales hit their highest levels since 2015, and CMH delivered stellar numbers 🚙💨

• Headline earnings: +25%

• No dividend this time, but a 15% share buyback instead.

• Strong exposure to Indian & Chinese brands (nearly 50% of sales) plus Suzuki, now SA's #2 brand.

• Legacy luxury brands are struggling.

• Historic returns:

  • Share price last decade: 12%

  • Dividend yield last decade: ~10%

  • Combined ≈ 22% annual shareholder return over the past decade! 📊

The Twist

Founder Jeb McIntosh (79) may be looking to gradually exit — Simon suspects the buyback could facilitate this.
Still, Simon's holding: "I'm not selling — unless they offer me a crazy price."

🏦 Upcoming Event: Standard Bank Client Migration

📢 Important for OST, WebTrader, and AutoShare Invest clients:
Standard Bank is migrating investment clients to Shift.
Join Simon Brown and Adish from Standard Bank on Tuesday, 28 October, 5:30 PM (Rosebank or Webcast).
🔗 Register at justonelap.com/events

💬 Final Thoughts

Markets can be messy, but knowledge is power.
Simon wraps up with his usual reminder:

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else too." ❤️

🔑 Episode Summary

• 🪙 Gold's epic run ends with a sharp pullback.

• 📉 JSE hammered by resources & retailers.

• 🤖 Optasia brings fintech AI excitement to the JSE.

• 🚗 CMH delivers strong results and a massive buyback.

• 🏦 Big changes coming for Standard Bank investing clients.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🪙 Gold Rush Continues

Gold is unstoppable! 🚀
Now trading above R4,100/oz, the yellow metal has clocked eight consecutive green weeks — the longest winning streak since early 2024.

Simon digs into:

• 📈 Historical patterns since the pandemic: jump → consolidate → jump again
• 🏦 Central banks as persistent buyers — but what happens if they ever stop?
• 🤔 With gold having doubled in three years, central banks' reserves are now worth far more — will they slow purchases?

Gold weekly chart

🧬 ASP Isotopes & the Renegen* Deal

🔥 The small-cap buzz continues!

ASP Isotopes (📊 JSE-listed) soared 34% after being added to a Morgan Stanley National Security Index, thanks to its defense-related tech.

• 🧪 ASP will acquire Renegen at a ratio of 0.09i ASP shares per Renegen share.
• 📈 The stock was badly mispriced at listing, now settling into realistic levels.
• 🧠 Simon's take: it's partly a meme stock, but still delivering products and momentum.

🌍 Tariff Turmoil & Trump Tactics

🗞️ Trump shocked markets promising 100% tariffs on China, triggering a:

• 📉 2% drop on the S&P 500
• 📉 3% drop on the Nasdaq
  …before walking it all back two days later. Classic "art of the deal." 🎭
  💬 China's latest export data (+8.4% YoY) shows resilience, finding new global buyers despite tensions.

💥 Crypto Carnage: Over-Geared Traders Wiped Out

📉 Bitcoin slid 10%, altcoins dropped 20–50% — and many over leveraged traders got liquidated.
Simon's tough love 💬:

"If a 10% move wipes you out, you're not trading — you're gambling." 🎲

He explains gearing simply:

• 💰 10× gearing = a 10% drop → total wipe out.
• 💰 50× gearing = just a 2% drop → goodbye capital.
• Crypto's already volatile — no need for extra leverage.

💸 JSE Large Caps: Great Dividend Yields

Following last week's small-cap value picks, Simon scans big JSE names offering strong income 📊:

🏦 Banks

• Nedbank (9%) – solid and cheap.
• ABSA (8%) – attractive and trading below NAV.
• Standard Bank (7%) – quality but pricier.
• FirstRand (5.2%) – premium quality, lower yield.
• Investec (6.5%) – decent, but less excitement.

🏭 Industrials & Commodities

• Tungela (50%) – monster yield, but coal outlook uncertain.
• Omnia (special dividend) – mixed on chemicals.
• AVI (9%) – steady margins, strong chart 📊.
• Tiger Brands (7%) – turnaround story under new management.
• Reunert – defense & cabling play; value emerging.

🏠 Property

• Equites, Growthpoint, Fairvest, Hyprop, Resilient – 6–8% yields, but NAV discounts vary.

🎰 Leisure & Retail

• Sun International (10%) – betting becoming core growth area 🎲
• Mr Price* (4%) – comeback potential.
• Woolies (2.5%) – still struggling with fashion 👗
• Shoprite* (2.7%) – premium, low yield.

💼 Asset Managers

• Old Mutual (9%), Coronation (8%), Sygnia – benefit from rising markets.
• Alexander Forbes – solid income play.

📡 Telcos & Others

• Telkom – undervalued, post-Swiftnet debt cut, potential MTN suitor 📶
• Grindrod – ports booming, Africa trade tailwinds 🌍
• Bitvest (4%) – cash generative, debt manageable, chart support at R200.

🧾 Key Takeaways

✅ Gold's bull market still strong — no legs down yet.
✅ ASP Isotopes & Renegen merger heating up.
✅ Beware leverage — crypto is wild enough.
✅ Dividend stocks offering serious income on the JSE.
✅ Buffett Power Hour this Thursday — don't miss it! 💼✨

🎧 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT —
💳 The global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments, with the lowest Forex rates.

👉 Subscribe to Worldwide Markets wherever you get your podcasts.
💬 Follow Simon on Twitter/X: @SimonPB

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📅 Recorded Tuesday afternoon | Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

💡 Episode Overview

This week Simon Brown digs into value on the JSE — where the cheapest shares might be hiding 👀.
He also unpacks:

• The Purple Group* pullback 🟣
• ETF returns so far in 2025 📈 (spoiler: it's been a wild year!)
• Upcoming Standard Bank Power Hour: Investing Like Warren Buffett 🧠

🟣 Purple Group: Pullback or Panic?

• After a huge rally to R2.74, Purple Group has pulled back — but no need to panic.
• Likely to find support around R2.10, with upside targets around R3.50 💪.
• Expecting strong trading updates by late October or early November.
• With markets, gold, crypto, and offshore assets all flying, Purple should benefit as trading volumes rise.

📊 2025 ETF Returns — A Booming Year

Simon's recent ETF analysis shows a banner year for SA ETFs (excluding dividends):
🏆 Top Performers:

• Satrix RESI* +118% 🪨
• Satrix Shariah +69% 🌙 (thanks to heavy gold exposure)
• 10X Top 20, Rafi 40*, Gold ETFs, SWIX, and EasyETFs Global Equity (Active) all strong 📈

📉 Laggards:

• Signia Health Innovation −9.2% 🧬
• India ETF −8.7% 🇮🇳
• Global Bonds & Healthcare ETFs slightly negative

🪙 Overall takeaway: 2025 is a golden year — literally and figuratively.

💸 Value Hunt: The Cheapest Shares on the JSE

Simon's criteria for spotting value gems 💎:

• PE ratio: 0–10 (profitable companies only)
• Dividend yield: >0.01% (sign of free cash flow)
• Price-to-book: <1 (trading below net asset value)

🔍 Highlights from the Screen

Property & Small Caps:
🏢 Ascension, Safari, Emira, Octodec — deep discounts to NAV, juicy yields (~8%).
🚍 Putprop — Western Cape bus operator, tiny but intriguing (PE 5.7, yield 3.5%).
🏠 Calgro M3* — low-cost housing builder, due for results soon; Baldwin also looking attractive.

Media & Industrials:
📺 E-Media — PE 4.8, dividend ~12%, cheap but illiquid.
🪵 Sappi & Mondi — paper industry under pressure.
⚙️ Invicta — PE <5, yield 3%, cutting prefs and improving cash flow.
🪓 Master Drilling — exposure to gold & copper, global operations, decent IP.
📦 Mpact — tied up in Caxton's bid & Competition Commission delays.

Consumer & Financials:
🛋️ Lewis Group — "a bank disguised as a furniture store," 10%+ yield, strong results.
🏦 Investec, ABSA, Nedbank — cheap banks with high yields and solid balance sheets.
🧓 Old Mutual — ~9% yield, launching a bank soon; well positioned in bull markets.
🚗 Motus & CMH* — benefiting from decade-high vehicle sales.
📦 Stor-age*, Spear, Growthpoint — steady property plays; prefer those with discounts to NAV.

Other Notables:
🐟 Sea Harvest & Oceana — solid businesses, but "fish stocks make for tough investments."
🪙 Sabvest — style value play, small discount to NAV.
💼 HCI — resolved union cash flow issues, trades below asset value.
🎙️ African Media Entertainment — great yield (10%), but beware of liquidity traps.

⚠️ Simon's Key Takeaways

✅ There is value on the JSE, but many bargains are illiquid — trade carefully.
✅ Liquidity traps can hurt even when valuations look great.
✅ Dividend yields + solid cash flow are strong signals of resilience.
✅ Always DYOR — "Not financial advice."

🧭 Final Thoughts

2025 continues to be a strong year for gold, ETFs, and SA banks, with pockets of deep value emerging across small caps and property.

💬 "Markets that are going higher make us feel richer — but if we're positioned right, they actually make us richer." — Simon Brown

🔗 Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

🌍 SHYFT, the global money app from Standard Bank — travel, shop, pay, and invest globally with the best Forex rates anytime, anywhere.

👋 Closing Note:
Nine more episodes to go this year!
Simon signs off: "Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else as well." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & the Shyft Global Money App 💳🌐

🔑 Key Topics This Week

📈 Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• Purple Group share price up ~150% this year 🚀

• Results driven by non-revenue income (inactivity fees & loyalty program)

• Strong client acquisition via Capitec & Discovery Bank partnerships 🏦

• Trading volumes soaring in a bullish market 💹

Purple Group | YTD to close 29 Sep 25

💰 Top 40 hits 100,000

• Thanks to gold miners & PGMs ⛏️

• AngloGold Ashanti* up nearly 200% in 2025 ✨

• Bitcoin also at record highs: $110k – $115k ₿

🇿🇦 Bull case for SA Inc.

• Eskom turns profit ⚡, load shedding largely behind us

• FAFTA gray list exit expected late October ✅

• Stronger rand & softer oil price supporting consumers ⛽

• Lower inflation, potential rate cuts in the US vs. SA rates hold 💵

• Bond yields easing = cheaper government borrowing 💸

🛒 Boxer trading update

• Like-for-like sales up 5.3%, turnover +13.9% 📊

• EPS guidance strong but valuation looks pricey vs. Shoprite* 🍏

🤖 Nvidia's* self-dealing investments

• Billions poured into OpenAI, CoreWeave & Mistral 🧠

• Risks of dot-com style "self-dealing" re-emerging ⚠️

• Simon remains a cautious Nvidia shareholder

📉 Global delistings trend

• JSE listings halved over 20 years 📉

• US market also down from 8,000+ to ~4,000 listings

• Private equity & venture capital keep firms private longer ⏳

📅 Upcoming Event

Standard Bank Power Hour – Warren Buffett: Blueprint for a Lifetime of Investing 🦫💡
🗓️ 16 October, 17:30 SAST
📍 Rosebank, Johannesburg (in-person & webcast)

📝 Simon's Notes

• Obsidian vs Evernote: experimenting with second-brain systems 📚🧠

• Thanks for all listener feedback 🙏

🎙️ Closing

10 more episodes left before Simon's year-end break ✈️
"Look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Recorded on 24 September 2025 (from the beach!) – Hosted by Simon Brown

This week, Simon takes a break from market talk 📉📈 to explore something equally powerful: how to manage the flood of data and information we face every day. Instead of focusing on stocks, currencies, or central banks, he dives into the idea of creating a "second brain" — a system to capture, organize, and use knowledge effectively.

🔑 Episode Highlights

• 🧠 Brains are great at decisions – quick choices like what to eat or which route to take. But storing and retrieving data? Not so much.

• ✍️ Handwritten notes win – research shows writing helps memory more than typing. Simon shares how digital handwritten notes improve recall.

• 📅 Calendars as to-do lists – forget endless apps. Simon's hack: putting everything (from work deadlines to buying milk 🥛 & whiskey 🥃) in his calendar for one central source of truth.

• 📚 Building a Second Brain (by Tiago Forte) – the PARA + CODE framework that inspired Simon's system.

🗂️ PARA Framework

• P – Projects 🎯: Active tasks (e.g. upcoming presentations, podcast prep).

• A – Areas 🌐: Broader ongoing themes (like camping 🏕️ or tech gadgets 📸).

• R – Resources 📖: Interesting but general material worth saving.

• A – Archive 📦: Where used or finished items end up.

🔄 CODE Method

• C – Capture 📸: Snap photos, clip articles, jot notes into Evernote.

• O – Organize 🗃️: Sort into PARA a few times a week.

• D – Distill 💡: Pull out the key ideas & insights.

• E – Express 🗣️: Use the information for podcasts, presentations, articles, or even shopping lists 🛒.

🛠️ Tools Simon Uses

• Evernote 📱💻: Clunky but everywhere (phone, laptop, e-reader, iPad). Paid version makes it work seamlessly.

• Tried but moved on: Obsidian (too complex), Notion (powerful but not his fit), Raindrop.io (good for bookmarking but limited).

🎯 Why it Works

✔️ Frees up mental space – no more stressing about remembering.
✔️ Keeps data accessible & actionable.
✔️ Turns chaos (screenshots, random notes, cluttered camera rolls) into a system.
✔️ Supports Simon's creative and teaching work.

🙌 Your Turn

Simon invites listeners to share their hacks:
👉 How do you manage the constant stream of info?
👉 Do you have your own "second brain" system?

Send us your thoughts, tools, and strategies 💬.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

💡 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments with the best forex rates anytime, anywhere. 🌍💳

Host: Simon Brown
Date: 17 September 2025

📉 China's Housing Market

• New house prices fell 2.5% YoY – still negative since May 2022.
• Bottomed in October 2023 (-5.9%) and now trending upward.
• Reflects weak Chinese consumer confidence, similar to South Africa 🇨🇳🇿🇦.
• Evergrande's collapse still casts a shadow.

Chinese New Home index YonY

🏦 Central Banks in Focus

FOMC (US): Decision due Wednesday evening.

• Market expects 25bps cut, with more cuts likely in Oct & Dec.
• US unemployment says "cut", inflation says "don't cut" – a real policy squeeze.
• Trump pushing for FOMC shake-up & questioning quarterly reporting 📊.

MPC (SA): Decision Thursday.

• Inflation at 3.5%, close to target.
• Mixed economist views: some say no cuts until 2027, others see cuts sooner.
• Fed cuts could influence SARB moves via rand 💵➡️🇿🇦.

📊 Trump vs. Quarterly Results

• Trump suggests companies report every six months instead of quarterly.
• Argument: reduces costs and red tape.
• Counterpoint: US market's strength lies in transparency & discipline from frequent reporting.
• Unlikely to change, but sparks debate on market "exceptionalism" 🇺🇸.

🏢 Three Stocks With More Cash & Investments Than Market Cap

1. 📰 Caxton (JSE:CAT)

• 💰 Cash: R3bn + R1.3bn stake in Mpact.
• Market cap: R4.4bn → stock "almost free" if stripped for parts.
• Dividend payer, PE \~7, yield \~5%.
• Not flashy, but offers Buffett-style margin of safety.

2. 🚚 Supergroup (JSE:SPG)

• 💰 Cash: R5.2bn, but liabilities of R9.5bn linked to assets held for sale.
• Supply chain, dealerships, fleet solutions.
• Debt-heavy, UK exposure risky 🇬🇧.
• Verdict: less attractive vs. Caxton.

3. 🛒 Pick n Pay (JSE:PIK)

• Owns 65.6% of Boxer → worth \~R20bn.
• Plus R5bn cash, R1bn debt, R2.8bn deferred tax asset.
• Market cap \~R20bn → potential undervaluation.
• PE ugly now, but 2027/28 earnings growth could re-rate it.
• Selling down Boxer stake could unlock value.

⚒️ Mining & M&A

Anglo American buying Teck Resources (Canada, copper focus).

• * Increases copper weighting to \~⅔ of revenue.
• Head office shifting to Toronto 🇨🇦.
• Deal raises takeover questions – could BHP* come back for Anglo?

🇨🇳 Nvidia vs. China

• China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws (linked to 2020 acquisition).
• Also probing Texas Instruments for "dumping".
• Comes as US-China trade talks continue, TikTok deadline looms ⏳.
• Possible bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations.
• Simon still holds Nvidia.

🧠 Next Week: Second Brain Special

Simon explains how to build & use a "second brain" for decision-making & information management. Because our brains are great at decisions 🧠✔️ … but terrible at remembering ❌.

👉 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & SHYFT – The global money app for forex, travel, shopping, payments & investments.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

This week on *Worldwide Markets*, Simon Brown dives into global markets, tech giants, crypto shifts, commodities, and currencies. Recorded a day early before heading to Leaderex, here's what's moving markets right now. Powered by Standard Bank and Shyft. 💳🌐

📊 US Jobs & Rate Cuts

• US jobs report was a mixed bag → +22k jobs, but mostly in healthcare.
• June revised downward to negative, July slightly up.
• Unemployment steady at 4.3%.
• Market expectation: Fed to cut rates next week after Jackson Hole signals.
• SA MPC unlikely to cut as inflation edges higher at 3.5%.

🔍 Alphabet (Google) Court Cases

Alphabet gets a gentle slap on the wrist in antitrust cases.
Remedies minimal → no spin-offs of Chrome/Android, search payments (Apple $20bn/year, Firefox $750m) remain.
Stock ran to **all-time highs 🚀 (PE still below historical mean).
Another case pending on ad dominance – possible spinoffs (YouTube, DoubleClick?) could unlock hidden value.

₿ AltVest → African Bitcoin Corporation

• AltVest rebrands to African Bitcoin Corporation (ABC).
• Pivot: becoming a Bitcoin treasury company like MicroStrategy.
• Raising R11m at R11/share (vs. current ±R5). Proceeds to fund name change + Bitcoin buys.
• Ambition: raise R210m (maybe even $210m?) in tranches.
• Risky bet → doubling down on volatile BTC exposure. ⚡

🛢️ Oil & Sasol

• OPEC+ to increase output ~200k barrels/day.
• Saudi Arabia aims for market share → oil likely heading to $60.
• Sasol still strong 💪 → potential run to R135–R140 before Simon trims profits.

💡 ASML & Mistral (AI)

• Rumours: Dutch chip giant ASML investing \$1.5bn in French AI startup Mistral.
• ASML has cash $8.5bn, but risks blurring lines by funding customers' ecosystem.
• Simon skeptical: "Picking AI winners this early is messy."

📈 Bull Market Still Running

SA Top 40 at record highs (95k+).
Possible push to 100k points this month.
"This is still a bull market until it's not." 🐂🔥

🥇 Precious Metals

• Gold → holding gains, bullish above \$3,450.
• Platinum & Palladium → strong breakouts, holding support.
• Silver → resilient above \$40.
• Precious metals complex all looking firm. ✨

💵 Rand & Global Trade

• Rand currently at R17.55, with potential to test R17.00 if US cuts rates.
• Africa-China trade up 25% to $122bn → filling void left by US. 🇨🇳🤝🌍

🇺🇸 Trump's Tariff Exemptions

Trump exempts; uranium, tungsten, graphite, gold, bullion from tariffs.
Good news for SA resources sector.

🎙️ Final Thoughts

• Markets remain bullish, metals are shining, oil likely weaker, and crypto experiments continue.
• If you're at Leaderex, come say hi 👋.
• Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for payments, travel, and investing.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌠Worldwide Markets Ep. 646 – 3 September 2025

ðŸŽ™ï¸ Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft, the global money app ðŸ'³ðŸŒ

ðŸ"ˆ Key Topics This Week

🌠Emerging Markets: 20 Years of Poor Returns

EM ETFs have underperformed vs. the US and gold

20-year CAGR:

ðŸ"Š NASDAQ: +1,400% (14.5% CAGR)

🟡 Gold: +700% (10.9% CAGR)

🇺🇸 S&P 500: +440% (8.7% CAGR)

🌠Emerging Markets: +193% (5.5% CAGR)

BRIC dream (Brazil, Russia, India, China) never delivered ðŸ'­

Headwinds: financial crises, currency depreciation ðŸ'¸, weaker governance ðŸ"‰

🟡 Gold & ⚪ Silver Running

Gold futures hit $3,560/oz 🚀

Central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries

Silver back above $40, near 2011 highs

Stagflation worries (low growth, high inflation, debt) → gold demand surges

Gold weekly chart | 02 September 2025

ðŸ›' Shoprite* Results & 60/60 Growth

Checkers 60/60 delivered R18.9bn revenue ðŸŽðŸ"¦

That's nearly 20% of Checkers' sales & close to Pick n Pay's market cap

Strong results, inflation at just 2.3% ✅

Stock price up ~5%

🚗 Record August Vehicle Sales

51,880 units sold, highest since Oct 2019

Brands leading:

🚙 Toyota (13k+)

🚗 Suzuki (~6.5k)

🇨🇳 Rising share from Chinese brands (GWM, Chery, JAC)

Trend: consumers keeping cars longer, turning to cheaper imports ðŸ·ï¸

🧪 ASP Isotopes JSE Listing

Listed ahead of Renergen* takeover

Local pricing looks wildly inflated at R1,100 vs. realistic ~R165 ðŸ"‰

Very thin volumes; caution urged âš ï¸

🌠Geopolitics: New World Order

India 🤠Russia 🤠China meeting – cooperation on energy, fertilizers, space & security

Growing shift away from USD towards RMB in oil settlement

US power not gone yet, but cracks in global dominance showing ðŸ›ï¸

ðŸ"' Takeaways

EM equities have disappointed; US tech dominance continues ðŸ'»

Gold remains a hedge in uncertain times 🟡

Shoprite Sixty60 is now a R20bn business 🚚

Car sales at record highs, boosted by affordable Chinese brands 🚘

Watch out for weird valuations in new listings ðŸ'€

Geopolitics shifting – 2025 could be a turning point ðŸŒ

ðŸ"Œ Next week's episode will be late – Simon's at LeaderX on Tuesday. Come say hi if you're there! 🙌

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

• 📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors.

• 💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell's last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty.

• 💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members.

• 🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about "state capitalism."

• 📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets.

• 💷 UK debt crisis – 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability.

📈 Company Results & Market Moves

• 🏫 ADvTech*

  • Strong results: 5-year CAGR → Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled.

  • Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking.

  • Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana 🇬🇭.

  • Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%.

• 🚢 Grindrod

  • Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet.

  • Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet 🚂.

  • Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1.

• 🛢️ Sasol

  • Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn).

  • Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140.

  • Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds.

• ⚙️ Nvidia (results pending)

  • Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket.

• 🪖 Rheinmetall

  • German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand.

  • Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade.

🌐 Macro Watch

• 📉 US inflation & rate cuts – Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5–3%.

• 🏦 Tariffs & inflation – Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure.

• 💵 Debt & inflation – Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster.

• 💷 UK bonds – Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress.

📌 Quick Hits

• 📉 S&P 500 at 23x earnings – Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (±2%).

• 💱 Dollar trend – Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trump's economic policy.

• 🇩🇪 Rheinmetall boom – Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating.

• 📚 ETF database update – Now includes active ETFs 👉 justonelap.com/ETFdatabase.

• 🎥 Power Hour – Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later.

🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
📅 Recorded: Tuesday 27 August 2024
💡 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app

👉 Markets are on a risk-on rally 🚀, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown

This week's episode dives into Buffett's latest moves, Google's iconic IPO, and big results from Standard Bank, MTN, and Sasol. Here's what you need to know:

📈 Buffett Buys UnitedHealth – Should You Follow?

• Berkshire Hathaway picked up UnitedHealth (UNH).
• Stock has fallen from $600 → $308 due to federal investigations ⚖️.
• On paper, valuation looks attractive:
  • Forward PE ~19 (below long-term average).
  • Price-to-book ~2.9 vs decade average of 4.9.
• Analysts split: 2 sells, 5 holds, 12 buys, 6 strong buys.
• ⚠️ Simon's take: "Don't blindly follow Buffett. Healthcare is a regulatory minefield. Use it as a starting point, not a buy signal."

🩺 Healthcare Investing Alternatives

• Johnson & Johnson* (JNJ) – more stable exposure.
• Healthcare services & REITs (e.g. hospitals, medical equipment).
• ETFs on JSE:
  • Satrix Healthcare Innovation ETF (STXHLT).
  • Signia's healthcare exposure sits in their active funds.
• Note: Active ETFs will soon be added to local databases ✅.

🏦 Standard Bank Results

• ROE: 19.1% – huge number.
• Forward PE: 8 (cheap vs historical 10.1).
• Dividend yield: 6.6% 💰.
• Price-to-book: 1.4 (in line with decade average).
• Expanding strongly across Africa 🌍.
• Simon: "Boring, quality portfolio stock. I like it, but waiting for cheaper entry near 240."

Standard Bank | Weekly

📱 MTN Results

• Headline numbers looked great due to base effects from currency collapses in Ghana 🇬🇭 & Nigeria 🇳🇬.
• Market unimpressed: stock fell 8% 📉.
• Still strong 1-year return: +77% (incl. dividends +83%).
• Forward PE ~13.5 vs long-term 25 → appears undervalued.
• Risks: exec churn, CAPEX-heavy, regulatory hurdles.
• Simon: "Not a fan of telcos – data is just a utility."

🛢️ Sasol Update

• Stock bounced from R50 → R100.
• Weak oil price outlook could hurt 📉.
• Operations improving, second-half expected stronger.
• Simon's take: "Not a long-term hold. More of a trade: buy around R100, maybe ride it to R140, then get out."

🔎 Google's IPO Turns 21 🎂

• IPO'd in 2004 via Dutch Auction – gave retail investors equal footing vs institutions.
• Raised $1.66bn at $85/share.
• Today's market cap ~ $2.5 trillion 🤯.
• Return: ~8,000% since IPO 🚀.
• Fun fact: for years, Domino's Pizza IPO (same week) had similar returns 🍕 vs 🔍, but Google pulled ahead.
• Regulatory cloud: pending US judgment in August could hit stock short term ⚖️ → Simon says: "If it falls, I'll be buying."

💡 Key Takeaways

• Don't just copy Buffett – do your homework 📝.
• Healthcare remains risky but ETFs & REITs offer cleaner exposure.
• Standard Bank looks solid, MTN looks risky, Sasol looks tradable.
• Google's IPO remains one of the best investments of all time – and could still offer value despite regulation headwinds.

👉 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the app that gives you the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere 🌍📱.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

⛽ Sasol trading update – PE under 3 😮, H2 profits looking stronger, and the market loving it (+9.7% 🚀).

💰 Share buybacks – Why US companies love them, the tax angle, and Apple's massive \$100bn spree 🍏.

Apple out standing shares

🪙 Gold & the Resi10 index – Resource stocks roaring in 2024, +72.5% YTD 🤯, but will gold break out of its range? 

Gold Weekly | 12 August 2025

🇨🇳 China trade surplus – Despite tariffs & tensions, it hits a record \$1.2 trillion 📦.

🖥️ Trump vs. Nvidia & AMD – AI chip sales to China now taxed at 15%, and Beijing warns against buying certain models 🤖.

📊 Tool – Just One Lap's ETF Database is live! Filter by issuer, classification, tax-free status, and even search top holdings 🔍.

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investments 🌍.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🔮 Market Highlights

• 📈 Purple Group* rocks
  🚀 Share price has more than doubled since April lows.
  🧾 PE at 56, but strong growth potential and product expansion.
  💼 Simon holds the stock — bought low, holding for the long term.

• 🏦 MPC shifts inflation target 🎯
  🔽 New anchor at 3%, down from 4.5%.
  ⚠️ Finance Minister pushes back — governance concerns.
  💸 Lower inflation = lower raises = better expectations management.
  🧨 Flip side: high real interest rates hurt growth & jobs.

• 🚗 Vehicle sales boom
  📊 July sales >51,000 units — highest since 2019!
  🛻 Light commercial vehicles dominate, Mahindra sneaks into Top 10.
  💰 CMH* shines with low PE and high dividend — Simon holds.
  📉 Motus also cheap, but Simon prefers CMH.

• 🪙 Gold miners printing money
  ✨ AngloGold Ashanti*:
  • 🚜 Production +21%
  • 💰 Free cash flow +149%
  • 📉 Net debt down 92%
  • 💵 80c dividend
  • 💹 Targeting R1,000/share — already at R972!
    ✨ Gold Fields also up ~150% YoY on earnings.

• 🧾 US Bureau of Labor Statistics drama 🇺🇸
  🔥 Trump fires BLS head after unfavourable jobs data.
  ❗ Undermines trust in data — risks U.S. credibility.
  🌎 Bad precedent: Greece, Argentina, China have all suffered from politicised stats.
• 🍊 Tariffs impact SA agriculture
  🇺🇸 U.S. tariffs on citrus & grapes kick in Thursday.
  📉 Sector exposure: ~10% — not massive but not zero.
  👨‍🌾 Some farmers and related stocks (e.g. Mpact) will take a hit.

🧠 Random Insights

• 🪙 Crypto in Parliament?
  🇿🇦 Of 490 South African parliamentarians… only 2 declared owning crypto.
  🤷‍♂️ No surprise crypto isn't getting policy attention.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📉 MPC Policy Misfire?
💰 SA inflation at 3%, but rates still stuck at 10.75%.
📉 Is the MPC behind the curve? Simon says: Yes.
📉 Calls for a rate cut of at least 0.5% to 1%.

SA CPI and Prime | 29 July 2025

🥇 Why Hasn't the SARB Bought Gold in 20 Years?
📊 From 2005 to 2025: only ±48,000 ounces added.
📉 Gold outperformed the USD by a wide margin (680% vs 171%) over 20 years.
🤔 Why the gold aversion? Simon wants answers.

📈 Structured Product Spotlight
💼 New Standard Bank product:
✔️ 100% capital guarantee
✔️ 1.8x upside gearing
✔️ MSCI World Index exposure
📆 3.5 year duration, paid out in ETFs
💸 Min R25k. Closes in Sept.

🚘 Chinese Cars Disrupting the Market
🇨🇳 Omoda CX5 & CS9 – slick, affordable, feature-packed
💡 Screens bigger than laptops, prices lower than rivals
⚠️ Toyota, Ford, VW: Time to worry?

💊 Big Pharma Blunder
🤦‍♂️ Novo Nordisk loses Canadian patent by forgetting to pay a $250 fee
📉 Generics incoming. Massive oops.

🔍 Alphabet Results
💹 Stock up 15% since Simon's last mention
💰 $95bn cash, low debt
⚖️ Facing antitrust heat – rulings incoming
📉 Possible price dip = buying opportunity?

📢 Next week: Who owns what in Parliament? Crypto, shares, surprises await…

🧠 Hosted by Simon Brown
💳 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for smart travellers & investors

📉 Inflation Target Cut – A Bad Idea?
• SA may shift to a 3% inflation target 📊
• Risks of higher interest rates 😬
• Real rates already sky-high 🚀

💵 Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains
• Trump's weaker dollar policy in motion 🇺🇸📉
• MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue 🖥️🌐
• S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag

🏢 Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies
• Buys US recycling business ♻️
• Adds silver, copper, and skills 🪙🔧
• Expands beyond PGMs and gold

🪙 Voltara & PGMs Running Hot
• Valterra Platinum update reflects flood damage & weak past PGM prices 🌊
• But platinum & palladium now breaking resistance levels 📈🔥

🏬 Hyprop's Bid for MAS PLC
• Cash or shares deal (R24 or Hyprop stock) 💰
• Hyprop focuses on Western Cape & Eastern Europe 🏖️🌍
• Deal may not be in MAS shareholders' best interest ❓

🪨 Afrimat: Value at R45?
• Price on long-term support line 📉🧱
• Concerns: iron ore, Lafarge deal, site near Mozambique 🇲🇿
• Van Heerden's track record solid 💼💪
• Forward PE ~11, below decade mean 🔍

🧪 New ETF Database (Beta)
• Search by issuer, classification, TER & more 🔍📊
• Explore at justonelap.com/etfdatabase 🧱📂
• Feedback welcome!

📜 SA Budget Drama
• Multi-party politics = budget complexity 🧠
• Education budget almost derailed ❗

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🏘 China Housing Trouble:
3 years of negative home price growth in China 🇨🇳. Citizens frustrated as property values slide. Evergrande and other ghosts still haunt.

Chinese Home prices Year-on-Year | June 2025

🚀 Elon Watch:
Musk injects $2B into XAI 🤖. Deck chairs shuffled? Investors seem to approve.

🔩 PGMs Shine:
Platinum and palladium break higher ⚪, supported by tightening supply. Miners like Sibanye*, Implats, and Northam bask in the glow.

💻 Nvidia Milestone:
First $4 trillion company 🤯. AI + autonomous driving = future. Trump eases chip restrictions.

📦 Copper Tariffs:
Trump proposes 50% import tariffs on copper 🔧. Could spark domestic production—or not.

📉 Gold & Oil:
Gold drifts within range 🪙. Oil facing resistance again 🛢, needs a breakout above $77 to excite bulls.

₿ Bitcoin Treasury Companies:
Why buy MicroStrategy at a premium when you can just buy Bitcoin? 🤷‍♂️ Financial engineering vs. logic.
📊 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) holds 600,000+ BTC.
🇿🇦 Altvest has one BTC—also in the mix.

🏛 Crypto Legislation:
US considers classifying crypto as a commodity 🪙, stablecoins gaining traction. It's Bitcoin Week at the White House. 🇺🇸

💸 ZAR & Tariffs:
Rand weakened after US slaps 30% tariffs on SA imports ⚠️. Trump's unpredictability rattles markets.

🧠 Coming Soon on Power Hour:
📅 August: Moxima Gama on advanced charting
📅 November: Keillen Ndlovu on REITs (local & offshore)

🧭 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shift, the global money app 💳
🌍 Travel | 💱 Forex | 🛒 Spend | 📈 Invest — All in your hand.

🎧 Leave a rating and review — every bit helps!
📢 Back next week with more market insights.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🔹 Trump's Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭
🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬
🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍
🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥
🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷‍♂️
🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥
🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱
🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️
🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙
🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌
🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺

💬 There's a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

• Market returns in 2025 tell a story of extreme volatility rather than predictable trends.

• The US 10-year yield spiked above 4.5%, shaking confidence before Trump walked back tariffs.

Trump's Second Term 🏛️

• Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and NATO tensions triggered waves of uncertainty.

• A 90-day tariff pause ends soon—more volatility ahead.

Currency Moves 💱

• The rand hit R19.90/$ in April but has strengthened nearly 7% year to date.

• Dollar weakness is driving big shifts—its worst start to a year in 50 years!

Commodities on Fire 🔥

• Platinum: +52%, hitting 10-year highs

• Gold: +27%, buoyed by central banks diversifying away from dollars

• Copper, rhodium, uranium also strong, while coal and Brent oil are lagging

Equities: Winners & Losers 📊
Top Performers:

• Sibanye Stillwater* +115% 🚀

• Northam, Impala, Harmony riding the PGM boom

• Surprise: MTN +58%, defying telco sceptics

• British American Tobacco at record rand highs

Strugglers:

• Aspen -27% 🩺

• Spar, Mr Price* correcting after big runs

• Sasol, despite the headlines, down just 5%

Global Markets Snapshot 🌐

• European indices are up double digits (Germany +20%, Spain +21%)

• Canada bounced +8.5% from April lows

• Hong Kong +20% as Asia joins the rally

• SA market in ZAR: +30% YTD, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq

Key Lessons 🎓

• Volatility is a feature, not a bug.

• When markets "go on sale," don't panic—buy like you would discounted chuckles.

• Politicians worldwide are unpredictable—stay focused on your long-term plan.

The Dollar Story 💵

• Dollar Index fell from 110 to 96 in six months.

• Capital is rotating to Europe and emerging markets.

• The tariff-driven isolationism in the US is reshaping global flows.

🗓️ Upcoming Event

Power Hour – 21 July (Monday)
Topic: Three Decades of Investment & Trading Lessons with Simon Brown
🔗 Register at JustOneLap.com/events

📈 More Resources

• Full ETF performance update dropping Thursday:
  justonelap.com/ETFs

• Read Simon's market insights anytime on JustOneLap

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

• Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch.

• Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers.

• 📊 Understand the difference:

  • TER (Total Expense Ratio)

  • TIC (Total Investment Cost)

  • EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees)

• 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC.

• 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%.

• 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible.

• 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that's a red flag.

• ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees!

🛢️ Oil Wipeout & Geopolitics

• Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market.

• 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday.

• That's a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive.

• 🌍 Global market awash with oil:

  • 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions

  • ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon

• ⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced

• 📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly.

⚙️ Sasol: Much Ouch

• ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus

• 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday

• Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77

• 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy

• ⚠️ Not going bust, but it's in real pain

💱 Rand Rollercoaster

• 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76

• 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver

• 🎯 R17 still very much in play

• 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol

🏦 Fed Watch: FOMC & Powell

• 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected

• 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming

• 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025

• Data outlook softening:

  • 🏭 GDP ↓

  • 📈 Inflation ↑

  • 👷 Unemployment ↑

• 🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics

• SA's MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve

⚗️ PGMs: Shiny Again?

• 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs

• 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014

• 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere

• 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through

• 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035

  • Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now

• 🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices

• 🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*…

  • 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure

🪙 Gold: Still Glowing

• 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g

• Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over

• 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold

• 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

In this episode:

• 📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price* and TFG* show H2 improvement — are SA consumers finally catching a break?

• 🌱 Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GRP) lands on the JSE with a juicy ±9% dividend yield. Should you be bidding?

• 💰 Omnia shines with strong mining & agri numbers, plus another special dividend — but SARS looms.

• 🪙 PGMs on the move: Platinum breaks out, rhodium recovers — which miner is best placed to benefit?

• 🔐 CrowdStrike* delivers solid results, but share dilution raises eyebrows. Is it still a long-term cybersecurity winner?

• 💸 Currency & bonds: Rand firms as US dollar weakens and SA bond yields drop. What does it mean for investors?

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

He looks back over almost forty years of market crises that he's invested through.

He shares the lessons he learnt, what caused the crisis and what the response was.

This includes; 1987, EM Tigers of 1998, the DotCom bust in 2000, Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, the 2020 pandemic and finally the 2025 Trump tariff crisis.

• USDZAR 27 May 2025 | weekly chart

  Trump tariffs whiplash 🇺🇸🌀
  🗓 Flip-flops on 50% EU tariffs: delay to June? Or back to July 9?
  🎭 Oval Office ambush with Ramaphosa. No real surprises.
  📉 Market's still waiting for an actual deal – not just handshakes.

• Renegen* (REN) & ASP Isotopes (ASPI) 🧪
  🚨 Renegen deal: 1 share of ASP gets ~0.09 of REN.
  🛑 Simon holding Renegen for Phase 2 helium – not keen on ASP.
  💰 Nasdaq listing delays = funding delays.

• Sasol (SOL) ⚖️
  💸 Transnet drops appeal, SOL gets R4bn court award.
  📈 Stock rally confirmed – chart looking better, Brent still a drag.
  🛢 Oil remains the key driver.

• Pick n Pay (PIK) 🛒
  📉 Still losing money, but less than before.
  👷 Sean Summers' contract extended to 2028. Break-even delayed.
  💰 Boxer + R4bn cash > market cap = value if turnaround succeeds.
  🚧 Market says: "We don't believe it. Yet."

• Nampak (NPK) 📦
  ✅ Another slow but steady turnaround.
  📊 Results not amazing but consumer headwinds easing.

• Altron (AEL) 🚗📡
  📈 Strong Netstar performance. Solid accounting tailwinds coming.
  💬 Simon: "One of the few real turnaround wins."
  🧠 Potential still there – analyst upbeat.

• Harmony (HAR) + Copper 🇦🇺🔧
  💰 Buying Aussie copper mine for $1bn – diversifying away from gold.
  ⚖️ Adds immediate copper cash flow = de-risked future.
  🔌 Copper demand = chips, EVs, energy. Chart still flat for now.

• PGMs: Platinum & Palladium 💿
  🔁 Trading in long-term ranges (R830–R1100).
  📉 Not breaking out yet; charts uninspiring.
  📦 Stockpiles still working through post-Russia invasion.
  📉 EV transition and reduced supply in focus.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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Simon Brown recaps the evolution of Trump-era tariffs, with recent developments around:

• US-China deal: effective 54% tariff on Chinese goods, 10% on US goods

• UK, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam likely settling around 10%

• Expectations for other regions like EU, Saudi Arabia, South Africa

• Conclusion: tariff escalation seems contained, reducing recession risks

Key Insight: Markets are stabilising as the worst-case tariff scenario is dialed back.

💊 Trump vs. Big Pharma

Trump targets high drug prices in the US, pushing for:

• 30-day deadline for pharmaceutical companies to lower prices

• Unclear legal basis; possible price controls debated

• Pharma stocks bounce back slightly after initial drop

Simon's Take: Healthcare is risky for investors due to constant regulatory pressure — he stays away.

💡 Lewis Group: Surprise Trading Update

Lewis expects a 55–65% EPS increase, sparking:

• A ~16% stock price surge

• Ongoing share buybacks and high dividends (7.8% yield)

• Strategy: loan book expansion, carefully managing bad debts

Verdict: Strong fundamentals, still looks cheap. Simon and analysts are bullish. 📈

🛒 Boxer's Debut Results

First results since Boxer listed:

• Modest headline earnings (new shares diluted results)

• 25 new superstores & 35 liquor stores planned annually

• Operating margins on par with Shoprite* (~5.5%)

• Stock trading at fair valuation (R64.77), analysts' target: R76.66

Insight: Promising growth but priced in. Shoprite still Simon's preferred pick. 🏪

🏅 AngloGold Ashanti*: Cash Flow Soars

Highlights from AngloGold's trading update:

• 7x increase in free cash flow

• New dividend policy: $0.125 quarterly minimum + 50% of FCF

• 26% production increase (aided by Egypt acquisition)

• Concerns: strong rand + weak gold price pressure the stock

Simon's Position: Holds the stock, likes the dividends — cautious on expansion. 🪙

🏘️ Calgro M3 vs. Balwin

Property sector comparison:

• Calgro M3*: Sub-R1m homes, shifting from gov't subsidies to open market

• Balwin: Mid-to-high-end units (R1.1m–R3m+), annuity income from parks & amenities

• Both cautious due to election risks and past invasions

Bottom Line: Simon owns Calgro, likes both for their contributions to housing. 🏡

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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