Our Fairfax

Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Report through November 2009

Jeff Royce — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 03:06:04 +0000

When you look at long term trends in the Real Estate Market here in Northern Virginia, one thing has consistently remained true over the last couple of years. The number of listings on the market has consistently gone down. In the Northern Virginia area, the number of houses on the market was down 28% from November 2008, which itself was down 14% from November 2007.

This problem is compounded by the number of short sales on the market. Though many short sale listings are selling now, a large part of the market ignores short sales. People who need a house by a certain date or who hope to move in a reasonable amount of time ignore short sales. Short Sales have been confined to the investor market and to people who can be extremely flexible due to their current living situation.

Today in Fairfax County there are 2,424 houses listed for sale (If you compare with the chart below, note that the chart has how many were listed the entire month, but each days total will be smaller). Of those 2,424 only 2,002 are NOT short sales. So about 17% of the market is ignored by most buyers. A buyer looking to buy in Fairfax County ( a county of over 1,000,000 people) today has only about 2000 houses to choose from, and that is in all price ranges.

In the $200K-$350K price range, 34% of listings on the market are short sales. At $350K-$500K the number is $19%. So if you look in a given market like Burke (with lots of townhomes and inexpensive detached homes normally), you’ll find there are only 6 houses for sale under $350K that are not short sales. If a house is not selling in a couple weeks in this atmosphere, it’s just overpriced. Buyers are fighting over correctly priced homes.

Below is the usual chart with the month of November added:

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Written by Jeff Royce of Frankly Real Estate, Inc. Fairfax, VA, 703-585-5663

Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update through October 2009

Jeff Royce — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:28:20 +0000

The Northern Virginia Real Estate Market continues to clip along at about a pace that would sell all the houses on the market in 3.5 months. This is the type of market where prices would be expected to rise, and indeed have been rising. In the spreadsheets below, you can see that in most jurisdictions, average prices are right around where they were a year ago, after spending the last several years falling.

You should never assume that because the average price in an area has risen or fallen that the value of houses in that area has done the same. For example, if you are in an area where all the homes are around $300K, and a builder comes in and builds and sells homes for $900K, the average price in your area is going to go up even if the existing homes are selling for less than they had been. In other words, average price is affected by both the direction of the market, and by the mix of houses on the market.

That being said, I believe the market value of homes in Northern Virginia is very similar to what they were a year ago. People who bought a year ago are coming close to breaking even if they sell right now and some are making a profit. This is not true of people who bought 2 or 3 years ago at this point. Generally speaking, those people are selling at a loss.

For example, this house sold in March of 2008 (as a foreclosure) for just over $470K. It was just listed for $600K, and is under contract. Last year’s listing of this house doesn’t have photos, but even assuming the owners put a lot of improvements into the house, that is a big jump.

Another example is this house that sold (and the pictures show it was in excellent condition) for a net price of $313K in April 2008 and was recently on the market for $308K, and went under contract. We don’t yet know the final sales price, but it likely won’t be too far off from where it sold last year.

These are worth noting because it’s been several years since a recent buyer could break even or turn a profit in Northern Virginia. We have now seen a solid six months of escalating prices that have started to make up for some of the losses of the down market. Here are all the numbers:

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Written by Jeff Royce of Frankly Real Estate, Inc. Fairfax, VA, 571-482-7817

Funny–But True–Video on Buying a Foreclosure Property

Jeff Royce — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:50:17 +0000

Thanks to Kris Berg for this video.

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Written by Jeff Royce of Frankly Real Estate, Inc. Fairfax, VA, 703-585-5663

Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update through August 2009

Jeff Royce — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:12:53 +0000

The real estate market cooled slightly in August from July. This is typical of what happens each year as fall approaches. In August, buyers had a little easier time finding a house that earlier in the summer. Nonetheless, houses are moved a lot quicker this August than the previous three Augusts.

We continue to see price recovery. For the first time in several years some areas sold at a higher price that they did the year before. This was true in August for Prince William and Loudoun Counties and will likely be true for Fairfax County, and the Northern Virginia area as a whole in September.

The next couple of months will likely see increased activity as many first-time buyers are hurriedly trying to find a house and close before the November 30 expiration of the $8,000 tax credit that many of them are eligible for. I expect activity to increase through the end of October then slow somewhat after that.

I have heard a lot of talk about a “shadow inventory” of houses that will be foreclosed on shortly and hit the market, causing it to be flooded. It is difficult to get statistics on how much inventory to expect (please comment if you know a source for LOCAL statistics on this!), but our inventory is so low at this point it would allow more buyers to buy and really help our market. Even with the light inventory currently on the market, buyers are having a hard time actually purchasing many of the houses because of the financial condition of the current owners. The first question many buyers are asking about a house is “Is this one really for sale?” More inventory would allow these buyers to get into homes.

Here are the statistics for the past several years through the end of last month:

Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update though June 2009

Jeff Royce — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:51:09 +0000

June Real Estate sales in Northern Virginia were more of the same from the previous three months. We had a short supply of houses for sale, rising prices, and bidding wars all over. There was a particular lack of foreclosures on the market compared to previous months.

In most parts of Northern Virginia, there remained about a 3-month supply of homes on the market. The number of sales went down slightly from May, but the number of listings was down also. Buyers are now realizing that the market is no longer a pure buyer’s market like it was earlier this year. While prices are still lower than they were, buyers are feeling pressure to compete with one another, and many times offer prices higher than the list price of a house.

Below is the spreadsheet with all of the stats for the month and the past couple of years. Please note at the bottom of the spreadsheet that you can click on a jurisdiction to get the stats for just that area.

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Written by Jeff Royce of Frankly Real Estate, Inc. Fairfax, VA, 703-585-5663

Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update through May 2009.

Jeff Royce — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 18:49:51 +0000

The major change we saw in the market this past month is that prices are climbing. The lack of inventory has become a real problem, with about a three-month supply of homes on the market in Northern Virginia in general. Bidding wars are taking place on many houses right now. I wrote two offers for clients this week; one house had 5 offers on it, and the other 15. Both had been listed just a few days. Buyers who experience these situations tend to bid higher on the next house they see, and as a result prices in the area are going up.

The other thing that has been going up is interest rates. It will be interesting to see how buyers react in a higher interest rate environment. The cost of borrowing money went up about 10% in the first couple weeks of June. Even though this is true, the biggest complaint I am hearing from buyers is that there are no good houses to see.

The spreadsheet with all the stats for the past couple of years, now including May of 2009 is below. Note that the supply of homes on the market stayed pretty steady from April to May, while average prices climbed fairly significantly in most jurisdictions. Make sure you click on the various jurisdictions at the bottom of the spreadsheet to find the area you are most interested in.

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Written by Jeff Royce of Frankly Real Estate, Inc. Fairfax, VA, 703-585-5663

Northern Virginia Market Update through April 2009

Jeff Royce — Tue, 26 May 2009 11:14:57 +0000

The Northern Virginia Real Estate Market continued to sell at an even faster pace in May. In the Norther Virginia area (including Alexandria, Arlington, Falls Church City, Fairfax County, and Fairfax City) 32.69% of the homes on the market sold during the month. Fairfax County led the way in that area with 33.68% selling. And for the first time in a long time, average prices went up in all major jurisdictions.

Prince William County continues to lead the broader area with 41.63% of houses in the county selling. The average price in Prince William went up about 2% over the previous month.

All the Stats are below:

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Written by Jeff Royce of Frankly Real Estate, Inc. Fairfax, VA, 703-585-5663

Charles buys a Foreclosure

Jeff Royce — Thu, 07 May 2009 18:56:17 +0000

Living the Dream

Jeff Royce — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:30:15 +0000

Randy and Pam's Old House

I talked to a client on the phone this morning to get some information for her closing next week. Then I asked her what her schedule would be after the closing, when they would be leaving the area. And the excitement poured out of her. Awesome.

I realized that I just got to be a small part of what this couple has been dreaming about and working for for several years. I’m not going to give you details, because they have been blogging about it themselves.

When I started my real estate business 15 years ago, these guys were the very first people to trust me to help them purchase their home. I remember showing up at their front door at midnight to get them to sign off on the contract we has just negotiated. They

Randy and Pam in front of their New House

were in their PJs, and I was a bit more excited than they were.

We have become great friends since that time and my whole family will miss them. I love how they went through a process of figuring out what they wanted to do with their time, put together a plan to make it happen, and are now about to embark on a journey that will take them down the road less traveled. Check out their blog, it is an inspiring read.

Randy and Pam…have a great time traveling the country in your new home! I’m glad to have been a part in getting you on the road.

Northern Virginia Market Update through March 2009

Jeff Royce — Fri, 01 May 2009 10:58:39 +0000

The Northern Virginia real estate market had homes selling more quickly in March than in any month since January of 2006. The supply of homes in the Northern Virginia market, defined as Arlington and Fairfax Counties, along with the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, and Fairfax, was at a 3.5 month supply in March. Prices ticked up a little bit from February, but are still well under what they were a year ago.

Prince William County continued to sell at a rapid pace, with over 40% of the homes on the market selling in March, giving the Prince William less that a 2.5 month supply of homes on the market.

The close-to-dc areas of Arlington and Alexadria didn’t see as rapid of a sales pace, but did see prices increases, in terms of average sales price, in March.

Fairfax County saw it pace of sales rise above 30% and coninued to see price stabilization from it’s earlier drop.

See the spreadsheet below for all the numbers. Please note the bottom of the spreadsheet lists different jurisdictions. You can click on each one to see the specific market numbers for it.