Our Small-Cap Fund currently holds 15 stocks and is sitting on a fair amount of cash.

Wil Wutherich, the manager of the fund, gives a rundown of its positioning in a recent discussion with Tom Bradley. Wil also provides some colour on the fund’s energy holdings and its best performing stock over the past two years (Badger Daylighting). And it wouldn’t be a thorough update without addressing valuations and a weak performer.

(If you can’t see the video, click here.)

Wil was in fine form on the day of shooting, so we kept the film rolling and updated our ‘Overview of Wutherich & Company’ video, which you can watch here.

Management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns.

U.S. stocks have been the sweethearts of the global equity markets over the past five years. Yet, they’ve gotten increasingly expensive in the eyes of our global equity manager, Edinburgh Partners Limited. EPL has reduced the portfolio’s exposure to the U.S. considerably, as they’re finding better value in Asia and Europe.

Craig Armour, an Investment Partner at EPL, expands on the Global Fund’s positioning in a recent conversation with Tom Bradley. Areas that they drill into include the fund’s holdings in Japan, European healthcare companies and Asian banks. Craig also explains why the manager has been reducing the fund’s exposure to cyclical companies (i.e. those that are highly correlated to economic growth), the nature of its investments in the emerging markets, and what he perceives to be the biggest risk in global markets today.

(If you can't see the video, click here.)

Management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns.

We sat down with Gord O’Reilly and a high definition camera earlier this month for an update on the Equity Fund. Gord is a founding partner at CGOV Asset Management, the firm that manages the fund, and is the key decision maker for the portfolio.

We discussed a number of topics, including:

• What’s been driving performance
  
• The fund’s focus on high-quality companies with growing dividends
  
• Energy stocks
  
• What CGOV likes about industrial and consumer businesses
  
• Laggards (spoiler alert: there haven’t been many)
  
• Valuations

(If you can't see the video, click here.)

We’ll report back later this week with video updates on our Small-Cap Equity Fund (Wil Wutherich) and Global Equity Fund (Craig Armour).

Management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns.

By Scott Ronalds

It was an active spring in the capital markets, characterized by a spike in volatility, a run-up in bond yields and a dive in gold and mining stocks. Canadian markets had a rough quarter: the bond market (DEX Universe Bond Index) fell 2.4% - its worst quarterly decline in nearly two decades - and the stock market (S&P/TSX Composite Index) lost 4.1%. Global markets fared better, on balance, with many Japanese and U.S. stocks posting strong gains.

Our funds fared reasonably well in the quarter, all things considered. Although our Income Fund turned it its first quarterly loss in quite some time, our equity funds gained ground, led by our Global Fund, and are up nicely in 2013.

In this podcast, we review how the volatility and higher bond yields impacted our funds and highlight some of the key takeaways from our Quarterly Report.

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We caught up with Gord O'Reilly earlier this month for an update on the Equity Fund. Gord is a founding partner of CGOV (he's the "O"), the firm that manages the fund.

The portfolio has performed well over the last few years and we wanted to provide investors with an update on CGOV's current thinking and the positioning of the fund.

Topics of discussion include the fund's emphasis on high-quality companies, the role of foreign investments, the manager's thoughts on dividends, and their views on valuations.

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Gord was firing on all cylinders on the day of filming, so we kept the camera rolling and also updated our 'Overview of CGOV' video, which you can watch here.

Management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns.

We met with Edinburgh Partners Limited’s Craig Armour recently for a thorough review of our Global Equity Fund. Craig is an investment partner at EPL and manages the fund.

EPL’s investment strategy has been out-of-favour with global markets and as such, performance was a key topic of discussion. Specifically, we reviewed the factors that have led to the poor relative returns (versus the overall market) and whether there have been any changes to the firm’s basic philosophy or decision-making process.

It was encouraging to hear that EPL’s philosophy and process hasn’t wavered. The team remains focused on investing in companies they believe are undervalued based on their 5-year earnings potential. As for personnel, the key decision-makers remain in place and have lots of gas left in the tank (the core group of analysts are in their mid 40’s to early 50’s).

In the current market environment, EPL is focused on businesses with more cyclical earnings because they are being overlooked by most investors and are trading at attractive valuations. Examples of the types of companies in which EPL is finding value include industrial goods & services (Mitsubishi, ABB, Maersk, Safran), technology (Samsung, SanDisk, Microsoft, Google) and automotive (Bridgestone, Toyota, Dongfeng Motor, Johnson Controls).

Conversely, EPL has had only modest investments in defensive stocks, particularly in the last two years. This has hurt the fund’s performance as these stocks have been driving the market’s returns. EPL believes that these more predictable companies (in industries such as health care, food & beverage, and other consumer sectors) are trading at expensive valuations and will generate sub-par returns in the long run.

Craig and the team in Edinburgh believe the divergence in valuation between predictable and cyclical stocks is at an extreme based on historic measures (predictability is expensive and cyclical is cheap) and a reversion to the mean is inevitable. They feel risk is being misperceived and the so-called defensive stocks are vulnerable to a re-valuation. Cyclical stocks, on the other hand, will benefit from a more normal investing environment, and will really kick in when the global economy picks up.

While we place little weight on short-term returns, it’s heartening to see the portfolio perform better in recent months, with many of the above-noted cyclical stocks being key contributors. Notably, investments in Japan are bearing fruit as share prices in the region are recovering sharply.

To bring EPL’s thinking to life, we spent a fair amount of time in our meeting talking stocks. In the video below, Tom and Craig revisit some of the questions from our review, and discuss a few notable holdings.

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Management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns.

By Scott Ronalds

It was a strong start to the year for stocks around the globe, with the MSCI World Index gaining 10% (in Canadian dollar terms). U.S. and Japanese stocks were among the top performers, while Canada was one of the weaker performing markets (up 3%) as a result of its heavy weighting in gold and mining stocks. Bonds also had a positive quarter, albeit a much more modest one, led by a strengthening in corporate and provincial bond prices.

Our funds fared well in the quarter, with a tilt towards foreign stocks and corporate bonds being key factors. As for asset mix, we continue to recommend a full allocation to stocks (in relation to your long-term asset mix), a below-average position in bonds and a healthy cash weighting. As a reminder, this positioning is best reflected in the Founders Fund.

In this podcast, we review the quarter in further detail and highlight some of the key takeaways from our Quarterly Report.

Download, subscribe via iTunes or RSS, or listen now:

By Scott Ronalds

We’ve said it many times, but 2012 was another reminder that market returns don’t often match up with what we’re seeing in the headlines. In many respects, the economic news in 2012 was ugly. The U.S. grappled with the fiscal cliff, mounting debt and political bickering. The sovereign debt and unemployment issues is Europe lingered, China was dealing with slowing growth, and weak commodity prices were front and center in Canada. Yet, most stock markets had a strong year.

The U.S. (S&P 500 Index) was up 16%, many European markets gained more than 20%, and Japan and other Asian markets also turned in double-digit returns. Canada (S&P/TSX Composite Index) was among the weakest, but still gained 7%.

Bond returns weren’t as strong, but the Canadian bond market (DEX Universe Bond Index) nonetheless returned 3.6% in an environment where 10-year government yields are less than 2%.

All said, it was a good year for investors, and especially Steadyhand investors. In this podcast, we review the performance of our funds and highlight some of the key messages from our Quarterly Report.

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By Scott Ronalds

Markets had a good quarter, with resource stocks rebounding. The Canadian market (S&P/TSX Composite Index) gained 7%, while the MSCI World Index rose 3% (in Canadian dollar terms). Japan was the laggard, as the market declined slightly. There were some positive developments in Europe regarding the region's debt problems, with the European Central Bank (ECB) stepping up efforts to tackle fiscal issues. Bonds also had a positive quarter, led by a strengthening in corporate and high yield bond prices.

Our funds performed well in the quarter and have provided strong returns year-to-date. As for asset mix, which is reflected in the Founders Fund, we are maintaining a full allocation to stocks and a minimum weighting in government bonds. We also have a meaningful cash reserve in anticipation of more volatile markets ahead.

In this podcast, we review the quarter in further detail and highlight some of the key takeaways from our Quarterly Report.

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By Scott Ronalds

Stock markets around the globe declined in the second quarter as investors focused on the ongoing debt saga in Europe. Bonds fared well as the yield on the Government of Canada benchmark 10-year bond dropped by roughly 0.4% and fell below 1.65% in early June to reach a new low (when yields fall, bond prices rise).

Our funds held their ground for the most part and have provided strong downside protection during the heightened volatility of the past 18 months. As for asset mix (which is reflected in the Founders Fund), we modestly added to stocks (foreign in particular) and trimmed bonds in the quarter. Our managers feel there is good value in a number of stocks, particularly those that have growing exposure to the emerging markets.

In this podcast we review the quarter in further detail and highlight some of the key takeaways from our Quarterly Report.

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There’s a heightened level of anxiety among investors these days. With key political decisions on the horizon in Europe, resource prices spiraling downwards and investment banks behaving badly yet again, people are understandably concerned.

We spoke with Wil Wutherich last week to get an update on the Small-Cap Fund. Specifically, we discussed the fund’s divergent performance, Wil’s thinking on the resource sector, his concerns about the current investment climate, the financial health of the fund’s holdings, the role of cash in the portfolio, and where he’s seeing opportunity.

Download, watch via iTunes or RSS, or view below:

Edinburgh Partners’ Craig Armour was in Toronto recently where Tom caught up with him to talk about the Global Fund. Topics of discussion include Europe, the U.S., the emerging markets and Japan.

While the cinematography and sound are admittedly poor, the content is rich.

Download, subscribe via iTunes or RSS, or watch now:

By Scott Ronalds

It was a good start to the year for Steadyhand. We welcomed close to 200 new clients to the firm in the first quarter, our assets under management grew by 15%, and our transfer pipeline is healthy. Stocks also had a strong showing, with the Canadian market rising 4% and the U.S. and World markets gaining roughly 10%. The bond market declined as interest rates edged upwards, although losses were modest.

As we mark our fifth anniversary this month we have our first set of 5-year performance numbers, which are the focus of this discussion. It's been a turbulent period in the capital markets, but our clients with balanced portfolios have fared well.

In this podcast, we review the performance of each of our long-term funds in detail, and provide an update on how they're currently positioned.  

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Steadyhand Increases its Fund Lineup by 20%!

Yes, we’re introducing a new addition to our lineup - the Founders Fund. The fund is a balanced mix of our income and equity funds (it is a fund of funds) that best reflects my views on market fundamentals, valuation and ultimately asset mix. The fund’s target asset mix is 60% equities and 40% fixed income.

Our clients, and advocates of the firm, have been asking for a vehicle that captures all of what we do – the ‘undexing’ approach to fund management and professional oversight on asset allocation and rebalancing. We’ve been slow to react, rightly or wrongly, because the words balanced fund have always made me cringe. Balanced funds carry with them perceptions of mass market, over-diversification and steep fees (the balanced category of mutual funds is one of the most overpriced). But the fact is, a balanced fund that has a clear investment approach, an experienced manager, charges a low fee and is not pinned down to a rigid mandate makes good sense. As we grow, there are an increasing number of Steadyhand clients who fit the profile of the Founders Fund.

One of the key features of the fund is that I will be making tactical shifts based on my long-standing approach to asset allocation, which I call ‘Approximately Right’. A majority of the time, I’ll run the Founders Fund at or close to its Strategic Asset Mix, or SAM, which is an educated guess as to what will be the best asset mix for the fund holders over the long term. Unless there are extremes in the market, I’ll stick close to it and let our fund managers do their thing. When inordinate opportunities or risks arise, however, I will act. Conceivably, the fixed income portion could be as low as 25% and as high as 60%, while the equity portion may range from 40% to 75%.

The video below provides further info on how the fund is currently positioned and who it may (and may not) be appropriate for. You can also visit the Founders Fund page on our website for further details on the fund.

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We recently stopped by CGOV's office to talk with Gord O'Reilly (the lead manager) about the Equity Fund. We discussed a number of topics, including CGOV's definition of core vs. opportunistic holdings, their strategy with respect to dividends, and what surprised them most in 2011.

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By Scott Ronalds

2011 was a great year for bonds and a not-so-great year for stocks. Interest rates declined further (10-year Government of Canada bond yields ended the year below 2% for the first time in a century), leading to strong price gains in government bonds, and to a lesser extent corporate bonds. Debt concerns in Europe and political lollygagging weighed on investor confidence and most stock markets around the world had a poor year. Double-digit losses were common in Europe and Asia, while the Canadian market dropped 9%. The U.S. was a lone exception and eked out a small gain.

In this podcast, we review the performance of our funds and highlight some of the key messages from our Quarterly Report.

Download, subscribe via iTunes or RSS, or listen now:

By Scott Ronalds

It was an ugly quarter for stocks, with most major markets suffering double-digit declines. The bond market, on the other hand, had its strongest showing in 15 years (government bond yields now stand at levels not seen since the 1940s).

Our funds declined, but held up better than the market. Their focus on high-quality, non-speculative companies helped dampen negative returns.

In this podcast, we review the quarter in further detail and highlight some of the key takeaways from our Quarterly Report.

Download, subscribe via iTunes or RSS, or listen now:

By Scott Ronalds

Wil Wutherich, the manager of our Small-Cap Equity Fund, is in town this week on a research trip. We booked an afternoon of his time to discuss the fund. Since we've covered his investment process in previous sessions and his philosophy is well documented on our site, Tom sat down with him to talk stocks.

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By Scott Ronalds

It was a skittish quarter for stocks. The Canadian market had a rough spring, as commodity-related stocks gave back some of their gains from earlier in the year. The U.S. and Japanese markets were largely unchanged, while Europe was mixed. Bonds, on the other hand, had a strong quarter, as investors embraced safety and yields declined further.

Our funds held up relatively well, given our managers' focus on high-quality companies and lack of exposure to the mining sector.

In this podcast, we review the quarter in further detail and highlight some of the key takeaways from our Quarterly Report.

Download, subscribe via iTunes or RSS, or listen now:

By Scott Ronalds

Stock markets pushed forward in the first quarter despite some strong headwinds, including revolutions in North Africa, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and lingering sovereign debt issues in Europe. It goes to prove that the linkage between headlines and market returns is anything but precise.

In this podcast, we review the first quarter of 2011 and highlight some of the key messages from our Quarterly Report.

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By Scott Ronalds

Wil Wutherich, the manager of our Small-Cap Equity Fund, is in town this week on a research trip. We booked an afternoon of his time to review the fund and get some further insights on some of the stocks in the portfolio.

Download, subscribe via iTunes or RSS, or listen now:

By Scott Ronalds

2010 was a good year for both stocks and bonds. Resource-focused and small-cap stocks saw sharp gains, and both the Canadian and U.S. markets turned in double-digit returns. European stocks struggled in comparison, however, due to the well-publicized headwinds in the region (i.e., debt problems).

Bonds were once again popular, as investors were willing to pay a premium for safety and income, although their shine began to fade late in the year as interest rates began to rise. Our clients with a balanced asset mix experienced returns in the 9-10% range for the year, depending on their mix.

In this podcast, we review the performance of our funds and highlight some of the key messages from our Quarterly Report.

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Small cap stocks were hit particularly hard during the credit crisis of 2008/09.  In this update, Tom talks with Wil Wutherich (the manager of the fund) about the current financial shape of the businesses in the portfolio and how they weathered the storm. Wil also shares a few anecdotes on some of the fund's holdings to bring his investment philosophy to life, and discusses why he's optimistic (and comfortable) about select oil stocks in Colombia.

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"Japan has been bad for so long, it's largely ignored. Just to give you a flavour of that, we had the senior management of Sony in to see us and they told us we were their largest shareholder in Europe. And we're not a large company. It tells you the lack of interest in Japan."
      - Dr. Sandy Nairn, CEO of Edinburgh Partners Limited 

In this update, Tom and Sandy discuss some of the opportunities and dangers in the global markets (Sandy's firm manages our Global Fund). They touch on the outlook for the economy and how it impacts EPL's research efforts, their views on Asia, and the return expectations for the portfolio.

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In this update, Tom discusses the Equity Fund with Ted Ecclestone, a partner at CGOV (the manager of the fund).

The portfolio has an emphasis on high-quality stocks, which have underperformed the broader market over the past several quarters. Ted reviews where CGOV stands today on this positioning. He also discusses some of the recent changes in the fund and addresses a few stock specific glitches (Manulife and Shoppers Drug Mart) and a key win (Potash Corp).

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With the camera rolling, Tom recently sat down with Warren Stoddart, a Vice President and Managing Partner at Connor, Clark & Lunn, to provide an update on our Income Fund (which CC&L manages).  Topics of discussion included:

• interest rates
  
• inflation
• return expectations
• corporate bonds
• real estate investment trusts (REITs)

By Scott Ronalds

The second quarter of 2010 was a challenging period for equity markets, as investors focused on the European debt problems and the sustainability of the global economic recovery. In this podcast, we review these issues and highlight some of the key messages from our Quarterly Report.

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By Scott Ronalds

Tom met with Edinburgh Partners Limited (EPL) on their home turf last week for an annual update on their firm and global equity portfolio. It was also an opportune time to discuss some of the issues currently impacting Europe and get the CEO’s (Sandy Nairn) thoughts on the debt crisis that is overhanging Greece.

A little jet-lagged and with a hint of an accent, Tom highlights some takeaways from his visit in this podcast, which is a supplementary posting to a blog on the same topic.

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By Scott Ronalds

In this podcast, Tom and I highlight some of the key messages from our Quarterly Report. We also discuss our three-year performance (Steadyhand marked its third anniversary in the quarter) and provide an overview on the advice we are currently providing to clients.

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By Scott Ronalds

Wil Wutherich, the manager of our Small-Cap Fund, was in town last week on a research trip. We snagged a morning of his time to review the fund and get some further insights on some of the stocks in the portfolio.

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By Scott Ronalds

Toward the end of every quarter, we get on the phone with each of our fund managers and review their portfolios (our funds). This is a formal process that we go through with CC&L (the manager of our Savings Fund and Income Fund), CGOV (Equity Fund), Edinburgh Partners (Global Equity Fund) and Wutherich & Company (Small-Cap Equity Fund).

In this podcast, we take you 'behind the scenes' by highlighting some of the issues and topics that we discuss in these sessions, using our recent call with CGOV as an example.

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By Scott Ronalds

Don Cranston, one of the founding partners of CGOV Asset Management (the manager of our Equity Fund) was in town last week enjoying some of our rain. We put Don in front of the microphone and asked him a few of the questions that are at the top of investors’ minds these days:

• How and why does CGOV incorporate foreign holdings into the fund?
  
• What were some of the disappointments in the portfolio last year?
  
• How is the fund currently positioned?

And, as is customary with a visit from one of our managers, we closed with some rapid fire questions to get to know the real Don Cranston. Evidently, he’s not a fan of synchronized swimming.

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By Scott Ronalds

If you’re an income investor, T-Bills and GICs aren’t helping you much these days. And the prospects for government bonds are nothing to get excited about. In order to achieve a more desirable return, you may find yourself reaching for yield, or moving up the risk scale.

While this isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it should be done in a conscious and appropriate way. In this podcast, Tom expands on some of the advice he proposed in his latest Globe and Mail article. He also discusses the outlook and opportunities in our Income Fund.

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By Scott Ronalds

Tom recently sat down with Larry Lunn, the Chairman and founder of Connor, Clark & Lunn (CC&L), to talk shop.

At the front end of the podcast, Larry discusses where we are in the economic recovery and his view on [the hot topic of] inflation. He then addresses some of the strategies that CC&L is pursuing in the Income Fund, and where they are seeing the best value in the bond market.

And we’d be remiss if we didn’t close the podcast by asking the veteran money manager where he sees returns headed over the next 5 or so years, given the extraordinary circumstances we’ve been through over the past 12 months.

If you’ve got 20 minutes to spare, there’s a lot of wisdom to take away. If you’d rather tune in by topic, here’s a breakdown of the conversation:

0 – 2:40.  Introduction.
2:40 – 5:12.  Where we are in the economic recovery.
5:12 – 8:35.  Inflation.
8:35 – 11:35.  Strategies in the Income Fund that have paid off recently.
11:35 – 13:10.  Bank bonds and other areas of opportunity.
13:10 – 14:12.  Corporate bond exposure going forward.
14:12 – 15:15.  The U.S. high yield market.
15:15 – 17:25.  Strategy with respect to income-equities.
17:25 – 19:02.  Medium-term outlook for the markets and the Income Fund.

Download (the file may take a minute or two to download), subscribe via iTunes or RSS, or listen now:

By Scott Ronalds

In this podcast, Tom and I review the third quarter of 2009.

It was another strong period for equities. U.S. stocks posted their best quarter in a decade, while the TSX and many overseas markets turned in double-digit returns. A rising loonie negatively impacted foreign returns (for Canadian investors), but overall, it was a bright summer for equity investors.  Fixed income investors also had much to cheer about, as improving liquidity conditions and sentiment led to further declines in corporate bond yields.

Listen now (the file may take a minute or two to download), or subscribe to our podcasts via iTunes or RSS.

By Scott Ronalds

In this podcast, Tom expands on his latest Globe and Mail column, which focuses on the traits that he looks for in a money manager.  More specifically, he highlights two things that he watches for and studies very intently: 1) the temperament of the manager, and 2) their investment process (is it repeatable and does it stand up in times of stress?).

Listen now or subscribe to our podcasts via iTunes or RSS.

We've published this posting in both text and video form. Click the play button below to watch the video.

A lot of thought has been going into the lessons learned from the recession. That's prompted me to think about what has come out of the turmoil in the capital markets. It didn't take long to come up with a list. Here are my top five lessons learned, or should I say relearned: When it comes to markets and cycles, investors are not very good students. We seem to make the same mistakes over and over.

Leverage is a two-way street. During the years leading up to the summer of 2007, credit was available to any person, organization or investment firm that wanted it. The signs all said one way and there were no stop lights. But when debt is introduced to the mix, the range of possibilities is increased. The worst-case scenario should determine how much leverage is tolerable, but with low interest rates and a strong economy, that option wasn't being considered.

As an asset manager, it was also frustrating to see that investment returns created by leverage (and other forms of financial engineering) were being treated as equal to those based on corporate profits. While trying to temper clients' expectations, we found ourselves competing against levered products offering “potential” returns. Don't they know debt works both ways?

Don't get carried away on one theme and stray from your long-term strategy. The investors that had all their money with Bernie Madoff were extreme cases, but long cycles and past success do tend to lead people away from their long-term asset mix. Whether it was the Nifty Fifty in the 1970s, technology in the '90s or resources this time around, we're prone to getting carried away. And not just the amateurs, the pros do it too. Everyone on the buy side was watching the Ivy League schools – Harvard, Yale and Princeton – to see how they were generating such high returns, but this cycle they went overboard on illiquid investments (real estate, private equity and commodities) and got caught in a cash squeeze. I was guilty of letting my (and our clients') exposure to corporate bonds creep up after many years of good returns.

Don't assume liquidity will be there when you need it. When there is plenty of money flowing, investors start to believe it will always be there. “There is a wall of liquidity out there, the market can't go down,” was a common refrain in 2006 and 2007 when the pockets of hedge fund and private equity managers were bulging.

As I've said before, don't ever base an investment strategy on capital flows. The money tap can turn off in an instant – and without warning – which is what happened in the summer of 2007. Whether it's an individual needing money from his/her portfolio, a corporation refinancing its loans, or a structured product rolling over short-term financing, it should never be assumed that markets will be favourable, or even available, at the moment of need.

When I was a young sell-side analyst in the 1980s, I once admonished the chief financial officer of Canadian Pacific Ltd. for doing an equity issue when it didn't appear the company needed the capital. He stared at this nervy, naive punk and said, “I took it because it was there.” I didn't get his point at the time, but it eventually sunk in.

Risk management systems work until they don't. And they don't when circumstances extend beyond the range of expected outcomes. Sophisticated formulas assume that correlations are stable and distribution curves are normal. But correlations are as erratic as a driver on a cellphone and we don't need to be protected until abnormal times.

And yet, the elegance of the models is hard to resist. As managers, we get sucked into micro-managing unimportant stuff (tracking error versus the benchmark, style factors and cross-correlations) and fail to use common sense on the big stuff.

Finally, it's not different this time. It's just another episode of the same show. The economic and market cycle has not been repealed, even though former president George W. Bush and former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan tried their darnedest. Booms lead to busts, and extreme booms lead to what we have now. Therefore, price is always important, no matter how much capital is available or how compelling the story behind the investment is. And it's always better to sell when people around you are greedy and buy when they are fearful.

Not long ago we were thinking that we'd never have a recession because of “Chindia.” Now we are questioning the potential for a recovery. This is no different than any other cycle. Individuals and organizations adapt to a new set of circumstances. Inventories will be reduced, uneconomic production taken out of service, debtors delevered, and lo-and-behold, growth will reappear, from a lower, more sustainable base.

In an interview with Barron's magazine last fall, Jeremy Grantham, chairman of GMO in Boston, was asked if we will learn anything from the crisis. He answered, “We will learn an enormous amount in a very short time, quite a bit in the medium term and absolutely nothing in the long term. That would be the historical precedent.”

Unfortunately he's right. But let's at least commit to remembering these five lessons. Repeat after me…

In this podcast, Tom and Scott review the second quarter of 2009.

The equity markets rebounded sharply in the quarter, with many stocks posting strong gains.  The corporate bond market also enjoyed a long-awaited recovery, as yields declined and the credit environment improved.  Our funds bounced back to varying degrees, with the Global and Income funds posting notable advances and the Small-Cap fund turning in a more modest gain. 

Listen now (the file many take a minute or two to download), or subscribe to our podcasts via iTunes or RSS.

By Scott Ronalds

Christine Montgomery from Edinburgh Partners, the manager of our Global Equity Fund, has been traveling in North America this week meeting with companies (research) and clients (hand-holding). We dragged her out of the San Francisco fog and welcomed her to our sunny (partly) headquarters yesterday, where we reviewed the portfolio and talked shop.

In the attached podcast, Tom and Christine discuss a number of issues, including:

• The recovery in the global equity markets
  
• The on-going shift in the portfolio from defense to offense – health care, telecom and cash positions have been reduced, while exposure to cyclically exposed growth businesses and emerging market stocks has been increased
  
• The fund’s exposure to Asia and the types of companies that represent compelling investments in the region
  
• The attributes that Edinburgh Partners looks for in technology stocks, which have seen their weight in the portfolio double over the past year, from 13% to 26%
  
• An update on the fund’s holdings in the financial sector

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By Scott Ronalds

Stock markets have rebounded 25-35% since the lows reached in March.  Feeling uneasy about the recent bounce?  In this podcast, Tom expands on his recent Globe and Mail column and provides some advice to investors who are unsure what to do at this point.

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By Scott Ronalds

Many studies on active vs. passive management draw the conclusion that the latter strategy (more commonly known as ‘indexing’) is superior because it generates higher returns. Notwithstanding the ‘sloppiness’ of some of these comparisons, it is true that many active managers underperform their benchmark. But it doesn’t have to be this way. Most active managers aren’t given a fighting chance. They are burdened by impediments such as high fees, tight constraints and a focus on short-term performance. When these issues are addressed, it’s a different ball game.

In this podcast, Tom expands on the active vs. passive debate. In doing so, he sheds some light on his Globe and Mail article from last weekend, and points to a recent piece on the topic published by Morningstar.

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By Scott Ronalds

In this podcast, we review the first quarter of 2009 and discuss how our funds have fared in the current market environment.

While it was another ugly quarter for equities in general, there were some bright spots, with some stocks posting strong gains.  On the fixed income side, the bond market continues to provide positive returns for investors, but with government bonds yielding under 3%, the best opportunities remain in the corporate sector.

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In this, our last posting on the topic (we promise), Tom explains what draws him to Buffett and why he commends his calmness, candidness and common sense approach toward investing. He also expands on Buffett's view that the investment world has gone from underpricing risk to overpricing it, among other observations.

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In this podcast, Tom chats with Wil Wutherich, the manager of the Small-Cap Fund, about the fund's performance in 2008, the current opportunities in the market, and some of the fund's larger holdings.

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In this podcast, we review the fourth quarter and provide our thoughts on the markets going forward.

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Investors need to put some perspective on the dire headlines.  At some point, stocks and corporate bonds stop going down on negative news.  They begin to look forward to better times ahead.  It’s time to start preparing for the other side of the valley.

Listen now (the file may take a minute or two to download).

Listen now (the file may take a minute or two to download), or subscribe to our podcasts via iTunes or RSS.

In Jay's words, the current environment is challenging, yet full of opportunity.  Listen now to find out why. Or, subscribe to our podcasts via iTunes or RSS.  

Listen now (the file may take a minute or two to download), or subscribe to our podcasts via iTunes or RSS.

Listen now (the file may take a minute or two to download), or subscribe to our podcasts via iTunes or RSS.