IpsosMRBI came out with their latest poll for the Irish Times a few days ago. 1,200 people were interviewed and the margin of error is 2.8%

The dramatic news is that Fine Gael drop 5 to 19% and are now third, only ahead of Labour and the minor parties. We can be confident now that their reduced support in the last two polls weren’t anomalous. As recently as mid-October, Red C put them on 26% and now, despite their comedown on water charges, they are on a mere 19%, behind both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, though the difference between both is within the margin of error. This is also the lowest figure for FG in 11 years according to IpsosMRBI. It’ll be interesting to see the impact on the polling aggregate which will even out this low but could put FG below SF again. It’s unlikely the next poll will have Fine Gael this low, but it does show a definite downward trend, presumably relating to the water charges (though we can’t know for sure).

Government partners Labour are down 3 to 6%. Labour had been fairly steady over the last few months, averaging around 8-9% but were presumably hoping to use that as a launchpad to rebuild some of the support lost during their time in government. We must remember that again, this will be smoothed out by the aggregate, but it will certainly be a worry for Labour who can’t afford to lose much more support and still hope to exist in the Dáil after the next election. This poll puts them only 2 above their worst poll result since the general election of 4% and presents a real existential threat to the party.

This gives the government a combined support of 25%. Fine Gael recently began talking about the potential makeup of the next government and on these figures, it would seem impossible that the current government could continue. In 2002 and 2007 Fianna Fáil got 41% of the vote and still couldn’t form an overall majority. It even seems unlikely that Fine Gael and Labour could increase their vote enough before the next elections to be in with a chance of forming the next government together.

Despite this fall in support for government parties, the two main opposition parties haven’t gained much. Sinn Féin actually drop 2 to now be on 22%. Despite reduced support, they are again the most popular party in the state. Including the last poll when they were joint most popular with Fine Gael, that would be three polls in a row that they have had the largest support. We’ll see when the aggregate is published if this pushes them into top position on that as well. In the last two or three articles, I mentioned how it was hard to figure out a trend for Sinn Féin because of the volatility of their poll figures, but looking at the last year or so we can see Sinn Féin getting around 15-16% and gradually moving, with lots of dips and spikes, to above 20%. There are lots of possible reasons for this volatility but the trend does seem to be gradually up.

Meanwhile Fianna Fáil are up 1 to 21%. They’ve only been this high once since May but they have been hovering around the 20% mark for quite some time so it’s hard to know if this is just the higher end of their usual return or the beginning of an upward trend. Certainly it would be easy to draw a narrative of increased support as a result of other parties losing out, but we would need to wait for more polls to know how likely that is.

The Green Party are also up 1, to 3%. This is the second 3% for them in a row, just on the cusp of the margin of error. Lower figures are especially dicey in polling but it might give them some hope for the future, especially considering that the concentration of their vote often leads to higher returns than might be expected otherwise.

The combined Ind/Oths figure then is 29% up 8. Unfortunately Ipsos MRBI do not release the breakdown of the Ind/Oths figure, the only polling company not to do so and despite the huge percent this category now regularly receives. As a result, it’s impossible to get a good sense of where the minor parties, mainly the Socialist Party and People Before Profit sit. They received a combined 3% in the last poll but there’s no saying that’s what they got this time. What we can say is that the combined figure is the biggest of any grouping, 7 points ahead of the largest single party, Sinn Féin. Too much beyond that would be quite speculative.

It’s unfortunate too as a combined left alliance of Sinn Féin, PBP, SP and what would have to be a fairly large group of Independents is a possibility for a future government. On the other hand, if present figures were repeated in an election, Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil would have a combined 43% for a possible nationalist coalition. If SF won an election, the impetus would be on them to begin government talks but there would inevitably be a lot of negotiations given how fragmented the next Dáil will likely be. Currently there is basically a three-way tie for biggest party with no one likely to be able to form a government on their own.

The polling aggregate will be updated here with this poll in a few days.

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Red C just released their latest poll, for November. The sample size was 1,004 for a presumed margin of error of 3%.

It’s been quite a turbulent month or two in Irish politics, there has been a lot of controversy and debate over Irish Water, including mass protests, some very tense confrontations between protesters and politicians, death threats, bomb threats and then a climbdown by the government on some key issues. But where has this left the polls? Well in this latest poll by Red C, compared to their previous one, the big losers are undoubtedly Fine Gael with some gains for Sinn Féin and smaller parties.

As mentioned, Fine Gael are the biggest losers, dropping 4 points to 22%. Joint biggest party with Sinn Féin in this poll and two points behind Independents (excluding Others). We mentioned in the article on the last poll by Millward Brown (here) that their figure for Fine Gael was lower than other polls that month and may have been anomalous, but this poll seems to confirm that figure, which was also 22%. It marks a reversal of Fine Gael’s fortunes since September when there was a lot of talk about an improving economy bringing support back to the government party. In September there was a steady figure in the mid to high 20s but this is now the second poll to put them in the low 20s, just four points ahead of Fianna Fáil.

Sinn Féin are the biggest gainers, up 2 to 22%. Sinn Féin’s figure is the most wildly fluctuating of any party, this figure, while up on the last Red C poll, is 4 points lower than the last poll of any company, which was by Millward Brown. Red C made a big deal out of Sinn Féin’s drop of 3 in their last poll, but don’t make as much of an issue of their gain of 2 now. It’s possible this is a correction of that previous figure, especially considering none of the other polls around that time showed a drop. It’s also completely plausible that some people stopped supporting Sinn Féin over the Mairia Cahill scandal and others started supporting them because of the Irish Water controversy and the different polls just happened to get a few more or less of the different groups. As often with polls, we can’t know for sure either way.

Independents are unchanged at 24%. Difficult times for the government especially but also other parties has tended to correlate with gains for Independents but not this time. This marks quite a few months of fairly steady returns for Independents alone, the tumultuous few months not affecting their polling too much. Nonetheless, they return to being the biggest grouping thanks to Fine Gael’s drop, and are still in a very strong position should there be an election.

Labour are also unchanged on 8%. This might come as a surprise given the water charges controversy and the fact that it was a Labour minister who announced the new charges scheme. Despite this, Labour have not suffered the same decrease in support as Fine Gael and are still on their relative high of around 8% that they’ve been on since around the time Joan Burton took over as leader.

Fianna Fáil are stagnant once again on 18%. In 7 out of the last 11 polls, Fianna Fáil have received 18%. The most they’ve changed between two polls by the same company is 1%, between two Millward Brown polls. In the last five months of Red C polling they haven’t changed at all, likewise for Behaviours and Attitudes, though they poll a lot less often. Whatever the reason, Fianna Fáil seem unable to capitalise from the troubles of the other parties but as a consolation, they also don’t seem to have done anything to drive away their core support.

Other parties gain 2 to 6%. This includes a gain of 1 to 3% for the Green Party. As mentioned in the last article, this is in the range of what they’ve been getting in polls for years, though it is on the high end which could be due to various factors and shouldn’t yet be taken as a sign of a revival.

The rest of the Others figure goes as 1% each to People Before Profit, the Anti-Austerity Alliance and the Socialist Party (despite the Socialist Party now being part of the AAA). At the last Red C poll, 2% was given to ‘Other Party’, listed separately from the Socialist Party so it’s hard to figure out exactly what the change is. The matter is complicated further by the fact that the SP is in the AAA. Suffice it to say there has probably been a small increase in support for one or more of these parties, though it could also be sampling error or merely anomalous.

Our polling aggregate will be updated with this poll on Tuesday at this link.

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There were four polls this October, one from each of the main polling companies active in the Republic of Ireland. In chronological order they were Ipsos MRBI for the Irish Times, Behaviours and Attitudes for the Sunday Times, Red C for the Sunday Business Post and Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent. The combined sample size was 4,119.

Below is this month’s average followed by the trend of monthly averages since May 2013. A star beside the month name means there was only one poll conducted that month.

The biggest movers since last month’s average (view here) are Independents / Others, up 2.1 to 25.6%. They have returned to first place in the averages again, swapping places with Fine Gael for the second month in a row. Their boost is mainly due to the Red C and B & A polls which both gave them a large 28% with the other two polls also giving them figures slightly above their score for September, resulting in their jump today.

Fine Gael are the second biggest movers but in the opposite direction, down 1.9 to 24.1%. This is probably due to their relatively low figure of 22% in the most recent poll, from Millward Brown, as well as the anomalous figure of 28% they received from Red C in September, rather than any downward trend experienced by the party.

Quite a turbulent month for Sinn Féin, despite this they are up 0.7 to 22.9%, just over a percent off Fine Gael. They bounced around quite a bit this month, from 24 to below 20 then up to 26 in the most recent poll. It mostly evens out for Sinn Féin, the slight boost due to the recency of their highest figure.

Labour are down slightly, 0.5 to 8.1%. A slight come down from their relatively high figures in September, but essentially they’re staying the same with a stagnant trend line.

The same goes for Fianna Fáil who move slightly less, down 0.4 to 19.3%. It’s in the wrong direction for Fianna Fáil but looking at the broader trend line, they’re essentially flat.

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The last poll conducted in October just released yesterday, conducted by Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent (pdf). The sample size was 991 and the margin of error 3.1%.

The big movers in this poll were Sinn Féin, up 4 to 26%, the only party or grouping to increase their support. This puts them back in front of anyone else, the first time in a Millward Brown poll since early June. This is quite dramatc but also very unexpected given the Mairia Cahill scandal currently embroiling Sinn Féin, is there more than meets the eye here?

Well, if we look at the Sinn Féin figure in polls since July, we get a preety mixed picture, fluctuating between 19 and 26% with no clear trend either way. Behaviours & Attitudes is the source for both of their 19% figures, their lowest figure of any but even excluding them we have a 20% figure, from Red C, followed by this 26% figure, from Millward Brown, within days of each other. Perhaps people are reluctant to admit voting Sinn Féin in face-to-face interviews? This doesn’t really add up either, since their highest figures were in telephone interviews. If we exclude the B & A figures and assume Red C’s 20% was anomalous, we have a story of decline or stagnation after the Local and European elections followed by a rise in support in October. It might make a convenient narrative, but we could just as easily exclude the other polls and get a story of stagnation around the 19-20% mark. It’s hard to say which story might be right or neither, the best bet is to aggregate the numbers together in hopes that errors will be smoothed out by the weighting.

Anyway, the next biggest mover was Fine Gael, down 3 to 22%. This is a good bit lower than their recent figures so may be anomalous. Either way, it’s their lowest figure since June, just after their poor showing at the Local and European elections and puts them behind Independents and Others and only 1% ahead of Fianna Fáil.

Labour are also down, 2 to 7%. This is their lowest mark since July but they shouldn’t be too worried just yet, they’ve been around the 9% for quite a while so further polls are needed to see if this is the beginning of a new descent for Labour or merely an undershooting of their support.

Fianna Fáil are down 1 to 20%. Nothing too exciting from FF, they’re still hanging around the 20% mark, where they’ve been since at least May.

Independents and Others are unchanged at 23%. This group has also had some contradictory results in the last three polls which were taken, despite being very close to each other, but they’ve generally been within the margin of error. With this taken into account, Inds/Oths have basically been stagnant since about September, though if this poll is anomalous then they could be at the beginning of an upward trend, after taking a dip after the European and Local elections, similar to Sinn Féin.

The Green Party are unchanged at 1%, the same figure they’ve got in the last 3 Millward Brown polls and while on the low end of their figure from other companies, it’s not enough to suggest a dip in their fortunes.

Our polling aggregate will be updated with this poll on Wednesday at this link.

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Behaviours and Attitudes and Red C just released the full reports of their latest polls for the Sunday Times and Sunday Business Post respectively. Sample size was 920 with a margin of error of 3.3% for B & A and 1,008 with a presumed margin of error of 3% for Red C.

The big discussion in the media was whether or not Sinn Féin lost out because of the scandal surrounding Mairia Cahill and related issues. Other media companies seem to have decided before the polls came out that they had lost support, but lets see if we can determine whether or not that’s true.

Sinn Féin’s support in the B&A poll was 19%, unchanged from the same company’s poll in August. In the Red C poll they received 20%, down 3. The BBC Spotlight programme about the scandal took place on the 14th of October, the same day the B & A poll began, which lasted until the 22nd. The Red C poll began almost a week later on the 20th, ending the 22nd. One possibility is the scandal had not penetrated the public consciousness during the early stages of the B & A poll, reducing its effect on Sinn Féin. But then surely they’d still have lost some support just less? Perhaps the water charge protests led to an increase in their support which was then negated later in the week, or perhaps there was a run of the mill sampling error to which all polls are prone to. Of course the Red C poll change was also within the presumed margin of error, so maybe that was the one that was wrong and the B & A poll was more accurate?

I trust readers of this article are smart enough to recognise this for what it is, pure speculation. When a big event such as a scandal happens before a poll, the immediate assumption, which the media should be correcting not reinforcing, is that the scandal caused the poll results. We’ve talked about this before and will most likely keep talking about it. Often these scandals take place after a poll was conducted, or a change in support for whatever party was slight and reflective of the greater trend from before the scandal. Sometimes a scandal may indeed have caused an change in support for a party, but without further investigation such as a direct question, we have no way of knowing for sure one way or the other. We can just say what the polls say and look at them in the context of other polls and trendlines.

Whatever the reason, Sinn Féin will be disappointed not to have grown further and capitalised on their tie with Fine Gael in the recent Ipsos MRBI poll. Their trend of growth since August does seem to have reversed with these polls, but we’ll have to wait and see if this continues in future polls.

Of the other parties, the anomalous figure for Labour from B & A’s last poll has been corrected, in this latest poll they are down 5 to 9%, up 2 from B & A’s poll in May. Red C has them unchanged on 8%. The B & A figure doesn’t tell us that much because we don’t have a reliable figure from the last poll, but the two figures are in line with the last few polls from other companies. It isn’t an an increase for Labour, which perhaps might disappoint them but they have steadied the ship somewhat from their seemingly unending decline since the 2011 election, which must be reassuring for some though perhaps not enough so.

Government partners Fine Gael are up 1 to 25% in the B & A poll and down 2 to 26% in the Red C poll. The previous Red C poll was quite high and might have been anomalous. Naturally other media have confused correlation with causation and attributed the decline to the water charges controversy. In context, however, Fine Gael are steady as she goes, hovering around 25% in every poll bar the aforementioned Red C one since June.

Independents and Others combined are up 3 to 25% in the B & A poll and Independents alone are 24% up 3 in the Red C, with Others on 2%, up 2. They are the big winners from these polls, with both Red C and B&A putting them up on polls since July where they were getting around 23%. This could possibly be a result of the scandals affecting Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, but either way it marks a reversal of the recent trend of a slight move back towards the parties and away from Independents.

Fianna Fáil are unchanged on 18% for both polls. They seem to have failed to capitalise on the scandals affecting Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, at least for the moment and continue to trail Sinn Féin, though only by less than the margin of error. Any hopes of a lasting recovery for Fianna Fáil seem to be drifting away with each poll.

The Green Party get 2% unchanged from Red C and 3% up 1 from B & A. They’ve been getting essentially this result in every poll since 2012 and are still within the margin of error. This isn’t very indicative of Green Party performance anyway due to how concentrated their vote is.

Our polling aggregate will be updated with these polls in a few days. Until then you can go here to see how it was before these polls.

By region

B&A also released the breakdown by region so we can have a look at that.

In Dublin, Inds/Oths are strongest on 29%, followed by Sinn Féin on 22%. None of the other parties get more than 20%, with Fianna Fáil strongest on 15% followed by Labour on 14%, then Fine Gael on 12% and the Green Party on 8%.

In the rest of Leinster, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are strongest on 25% and 22% respectively followed by Sinn Féin and Independents on 20% and 19% respectively, then Labour on 10% and the Greens on 4%.

In Munster, Fine Gael have very strong support of 32%, followed 3 points behind by Independents and Others on 29%, then Fianna Fáil on 18%, Sinn Féin on 14% and Labour on 6%. The Green Party doesn’t register in this region.

In Connacht/Ulster, Fine Gael are even stronger on 36%, followed by Independents/Others and Sinn Féin on 21% each, Fianna Fáil on 15%, Labour on 5% and the Greens on 1%.

Overall, Fine Gael have very strong support around the Republic but are brought down considerably by their support in Dublin. For Labour on the other hand, the opposite is true, their strongest support is in Dublin but they have much less support in the rest of the state, to a lesser extent in Leinster.

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil are fairly consistent across the Republic, with Sinn Féin weakest of all in Munster and Fianna Fáil brought up a bit in Leinster. Independents are also strong around the state, strongest of all in Dublin and Munster and lowest of all in Connacht/Ulster. While the Green Party have a heavily concentrated vote, by far the highest in Dublin and practically non-existent outisde Leinster.

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Ipsos MRBI came out with a poll yesterday in the Irish Times, their first since May, before the Local and European elections. The sample size was 1,200 for a presumed margin of error of 2.8%.

The headline grabber is the fact that Sinn Féin and Fine Gael are neck and neck for the first time since June in a Red C poll. Before that, Sinn Féin were put ahead of Fine Gael in a few polls but the news got lost in the build up to the elections. The Irish Times is reporting that this is the first time FG and SF are neck and neck, which is, of course, false. However, it is the first poll to put them neck and neck since after the Local and European elections where Sinn Féin did particularly well during the campaign. Their results since then have been wavering a bit but it seems they took a dip after the heat of the elections and this is the first poll since then to put them in such a strong position.

As we know and maybe someday other media sources will learn, since this is the first poll to report something, we should immediately be sceptical. It is broadly in line with the last two polls’ figures on Sinn Féin however, albeit on the higher end of the scale so we can be reasonably confident that this is at or close to their true position amongst the electorate. They are now on 24%, up 5 (for some reason, the Irish Times is currently reporting different numbers for the previous Ipsos MRBI poll in May, putting Sinn Féin up 4 rather than 5. We’re using the original numbers, as reported in the Journal here)

Fine Gael are up 1 (reported as no change in the Irish Times) to 24%. Level with Sinn Féin but their growth of the last few polls has tapered off. With a probable giveaway budget coming up and a supposedly improving economy, it may increase again, though they’ll have a tough time staying ahead of the ever-growing Sinn Féin. When asked by this poll, 37% said they were less likely to vote for Fine Gael as a result of the controversy over the McNulty nomination to the Senate. This probably hampered their growth this poll. It’s of course also possible some people switched to Sinn Féin as a protest over the affair. If so, these voters may switch back or elsewhere before the next election.

Labout are on 9%, up 2. We can now be fairly confident of their slight resurgence in support, getting around 9 in the last three polls. They’re again approaching their customary 10% figure, though quite paltry in real terms, if the new leader manages to achieve that or better by the General election, most will consider her a success, especially considering some of the apocalyptic poll figures Labour were receiving at times.

Fianna Fáil are on 20%, down 3 (reported as down 4 in the Irish Times). Down since May but stagnant in the context of other recent polls, indeed even the 23% they got in the last Ipsos MRBI poll was on the high end. Whatever they’re trying isn’t working to boost them out of this rut, the party will have to get their thinking caps on to figure out where to go from here.

Independents are on 20%, the Green Party on 2% and Others on 1%. The combined score of the three is down 5 to 23% since the last Ipsos MRBI poll. (The Irish Times reports their figure as down 1) Whatever about the altered numbers for the poll in May, this is also largely in line with the numbers from recent polls, for all three groups. Independents have been in slow decline since their Local and European election highs but still command around a fifth of decided voters and if the current makeup is reflected in Dáil seats, will be necessary for the formation of a government. The Greens and Others figures are similar to recent polls, having been around 2% and 0-1% respectively since May.

Our polling aggregate will be updated with this poll on Monday at this link.

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It’s that time again, time for the annual Northern Ireland opinion poll, courtesy of Lucid Talk and the Belfast Telegraph (article). Sample size was 1,089 with a margin of error of 2.9%.

Not that much change for the big two in this poll, the DUP received 26%, down 3 from the last poll a year ago and Sinn Féin receive 24%, down 2 from a year before. They are still well ahead of their nearest community rivals, 12 points ahead for the DUP and 9 points for Sinn Féin, implying we won’t be seeing much change in Northern Irish politics at least for the forseeable future.

The SDLP and UUP make slight gains, up 1 point each to 15% for the SDLP and 12% for the UUP. They might feel some hope from the increase, but this is an increase on a poll from a year ago and is well within the margin of error. The take-home message for these two parties is ‘stagnation’.

Alliance has taken a drop since the last poll, down 4 to 6%. This more or less reflects their performance in the Local and European elections but the party should be disappointed not to have capitalised on their growth over the last two to three years. It’s not obvious where these votes have gone either. It was assumed that the Alliance boost came from disaffected UUP voters, but we see no corresponding jump in the UUP vote share. Nor does it seem likely that these voters simply stopped supporting anyone as the Don’t Know figure actually dropped 10%. The other potential parties to switch to, the Greens and NI21 also lost support. It could be that the Alliance were previously over-weighted for some reason, perhaps that people were more likely to admit to voting Alliance than other parties and that has since been corrected. The only parties to receive a significant gain were TUV and Others, an unlikely destination for disaffected Alliance voters. It’s possible the Alliance voters switched to the UUP and replaced UUP voters who went more extreme to the TUV or PUP, but this is pure speculation. Since we don’t get very many polls on Northern Ireland politics, speculation it most likely will remain.

TUV made the biggest gains of the parties outside ‘Others’, with a 3 point gain to 5.2%. This is consistent with their impressive performance at the European elections and perhaps is some return for their increased efforts to build a party organisation outside charismatic leader Jim Allister. It would be interesting to see, if it were possible, how they do over the coming months, if they can push ahead of Alliance and perhaps get enough support to try demand a seat on the Executive.

The other very small parties didn’t fare so well. NI21 have been completely crippled, presumably by the scandals and drama surrounding the last election and the aftermath. They are down 4.3 to just 0.4%. It would be a mammoth task to recover from this position to regain a foothold in NI politics. Fellow moderates the Green Party also lose out, down 0.6 to 0.7%, reflecting their reduced vote at the Local and European elections. UKIP also lose out, down 0.7 to 0.9%, despite actually gaining votes at the Local elections.

Others received a rather large 10%. The last poll didn’t have a seperate ‘Others’ rating so we don’t know the rate of change here, but it is significant that this figure is bigger than any party outside the big 4 and is only just behind the UUP. We can’t tell which party respondents meant, but some possibiliities include Independents (such as Dawn Purvis), the PUP or People Before Profit, the latter two both won councillors at the last local elections. If a large percentage of ‘Others’ fell to the PUP, that would indicate a boost for extreme unionist voices like the PUP and TUV and a drop for moderate voices such as Alliance, NI21 and the Green Party. We have already seen the DUP harden its position on Orange Order marches over the last year and even join with the TUV, PUP and UPRG in a statement about the issue. We shall see were this trend goes in the lead up to the 2016 election and afterwards and what impact it has on the multi-party talks due to take place soon.

Despite the small shift to the extremes, Northern Ireland has been largely spared the major political shifts taking place in Great Britain and especially south of the border and in some European countries. This is despite the quite high disapproval ratings people give the Executive and devolved institutions. This perhaps is related to the protection the region has had from the worst of the economic crisis, with unemployed not going above 5% as opposed to figures as high as 15% in the south and 8% in the UK as a whole.

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There were two polls this September, by Millward Brown and Red C for the Sunday Independent and Sunday Business Post respectively, with a combined sample size of 1,971. The comparison figure is from last month, using the only poll conducted that month, the Behaviours & Attitudes poll for the Sunday Times.

Below is this month’s average followed by all the trend of monthly averages since May 2013. A star beside the month name means there was only one poll conducted that month.

The majority of movement in this month’s average is the correction of the 14% figure for Labour in the Behaviours & Attitudes poll. They plummet 5.4 to 8.6%. However the trend is clearly upwards, this being their highest rating since March.

Their government partners Fine Gael are also up, 2% for them. They return to where they were in March’s single poll, after having dipped a bit during and after the European and Local elections. The trend is definitely up for them also, though not as steep as for Labour.

Independents and Others are down 0.5 to 23.5%. Coupled with Fine Gael’s increase, this puts them into second place again. Their trend since May has been downward though the longer trend from May 2013 to May 2014 was steady increase. It remains to be seen which trend they continue, if either.

Sinn Féin are up 3.2 to 22.2%, mainly a correction of their low figure in last month’s single poll. They are down slightly on their July figure which was the last month with more than one poll. The monthly averages didn’t reflect their Local and European election boost, so we don’t see that revert like in the main aggregate. Instead we see a consolidation of their June figure after some up and down over the last two months This is consistent with the slow growth we’ve seen from Sinn Féin since the 2011 election and is presumably a continuation of that, though it could also be a levelling off.

Fianna Fáil are up 1.7 to 19.7%. They have been hovering around the 20% mark now since at least February. The longer trend for Fianna Fáil though is definitely downward, they were the most popular party in July 2013 on 29% and are now the smallest of the new ‘big three’ and not showing signs of moving upwards.

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Red C released their latest poll yesterday in the Sunday Business Post. This is the latest Red C poll since late June and had a sample size of 1,000 giving an expected margin of error of 3%.

The biggest news is the leftover from the Behaviours and Attitudes poll of the 17 August which gave Labour a huge 14%, double their figure from the previous poll and up 5% from B & A’s last poll during the Local and European election campaign. Such a jump would indeed have been astonishing, though not without precedent. There were already warnings that this was anomalous however. The previous Millward Brown poll taken around a month after the new leader had been elected, didn’t show any bounce, yet the B & A poll, conducted later, did. Even without this early warning sign, it’s just another reminder to take polls in context, not as an oracle of the future. The lack of a new leader bounce for Labour also gives credence to commentators who, before the leadership election, said the Labour Party’s problem went deeper than the leader.

So, as it is, Labour in this poll recieve a measly 8%, up 1% from the previous Red C poll. On the plus side for Labour, they are up from the 4-5% they were receiving in June and the trend is up. However, 8% is close to their worst election result ever. On the other hand, Labour are used to polling 10% or lower and haven’t disappeared yet, so perhaps talk of their annihilation is exaggerated. Again, we’ll have to wait and see which way the trend will go, if anywhere. We can be fairly confident though that there hasn’t been a big surge in Labour support. Times may change, but it looks like Sinn Fein are the go-to party for the left at the moment.

The next biggest news from this poll is the move away from Ind/Oths, now on 23%, down 5. Since the elections, they have been in the dizzying heights of around 30%, but have been gradually losing support since then. We don’t know where that support went, but it’s possible that the boost for Fine Gael is related, either way, it would suggest a modest increase in faith in the political establishment after the tumultuous election campaigns and given the gradually improving jobs figures. However we shouldn’t rule out Independents, 23% is still a huge figure, joint with the second biggest party, a situation without historical precedent.

As mentioned, FG saw a boost in this poll, now on 28%, up 3. They are on a definite upward trend, up from 20% in the first poll after the local and European elections in June. They don’t have the benefit of a strong Labour party to rely on however for any potential coalition, but the more Fine Gael gain, the more a Fine Gael – Fianna Fail coalition seems possible.

Among opposition parties, Sinn Fein are still faring best on 23%, up 1, steadying the ship after the 19% the B & A poll reported them on. Their polling figures have stood up quite well since the election apart from the 26% they got in the Millward Brown poll in June. This poll could be the re-establishment of the gradual upward trend they’ve been on since the general election. As it is, they have established themselves as the second most popular party and remain the best chance for a non-FG government though it might require strange bedfellows. Again, we will have to wait and see how further polls develop.

For Fianna Fail the bad news remains, they are stagnant on 18%, no change. They are certainly far from being a contender for the main government party and we may see the first coalition with Fianna Fail as a minor party.

Overall, this poll is fairly good news for Fine Gael. They’ve received a boost and are also continuing their upward trend since the European and Local elections. However, it’s bad news for Labour and anyone wanting a renewal of the FG-Lab coalition as the ‘Burton bounce’ seems to have disappeared and Labour are back wallowing below 10%. Sinn Fein have consolidated and may be continuing the slow, gradual increase they’ve been on since the general election. Fianna Fail on the other hand are stuck on 18% and have been stuck around there since the last elections, with no clear sign that they’re getting unstuck. The real bad news however is for Inds and Oths who dropped 5%, the only change outside the margin or error, this continues their downward trend since the elections and could indicate a slow rebuilding of faith in the political establishment.

Our polling aggregate will be updated with this and the last few polls shortly.

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Red C conducted a second poll within 13 days, this time for the Sunday Business Post (link). As usual with Red C polls, the sample size was 1,000 with a presumed margin of error of 3%. In other media, this poll was widely compared to the last poll conducted for the Sunday Business Post, rather than the last Red C poll. As Red C used the same methodology and presumably the same weighting formula, it is misleading to do this. The Sunday Business Post poll was carried out way back at the start of May, there have been two elections and many polls since then, comparing this one to that one gives a completely inaccurate impression of recent changes in voting intention. Comparing it to the May poll gives the impression of a continued dip in support for government parties, however, the Goverment parties actually have more support than they did at the last Red C poll, which would imply the exact opposite, a resurgence in government support rather than continued decline.

There was also speculation in the media that Brian Crowley changing European parliamentary party had an impact on Fianna Fail’s poll figures. First of all, this poll showed no change from the last Red C poll for Fianna Fail, so if there was a drop in their figures as a result of the controversy, it was balanced out by something else. Then, these conclusions were drawn comparing this poll to the Sunday Business Post poll back at the start of the European election campaign at the start of May. I have already mentioned the problems with this, but it is a completely wild and irresponsible to speculate on the impact of such a recent event on the difference between the polls as opposed to any number of events which took place between the two polls, not least of all the European and Local election campaigns. The furore over Brian Crowley’s party switch also took place around the same time the poll was being conducted (the 23rd to the 25th of June), it is unlikely this had an impact on anyone but the most up-to-date political followers. When reading polls and considering the possible reason for changes in figures, it is important to know that polls are conducted and published on different days. By the 30th of June when the poll was published, the controversy would have been much better known than on the 23rd to the 25th when the poll was actually being conducted.

So, on to the actual poll analysis.

The story of the poll is the boost in the reported figures of the two government parties Fine Gael and Labour and the decline in intention for Independents since the last Red C poll. Fine Gael get 25%, up 3%, and Labour get 7%, up 3%. This is essentially their figures from before the European election campaign where they lost considerable ground to Independents and Sinn Fein. Over the last few polls, both parties have been consistently low, Labour as low as 4%, and Fine Gael as low as 20%, so we must be wary of assuming this is the beginning of a government pushback. It’s entirely possible this is anomalous, it’s not uncommon for parties to gain in a poll, then lose that gain again at the next poll, there is also no obvious reason for this return to form. However, it will still warm the heart of the government parties who have been under significant pressure for quite a while now and will give new Labour leader Joan Burton a decent base from which to improve her party’s support.

The government’s gain seems to have come at the expense of Independents (though we can’t know this for sure), they are on 25%, a huge drop of 6% from the last Red C poll. This puts them back to their position of two polls ago but could just be a resetting of their position after the last Red C poll. They are no longer ahead of the parties, now tied in first with Fine Gael, the first time since the start of May. This is the first significant drop for Independents since a Millward Brown poll in April, which proved to be anomalous so we’ll see what the future brings regarding these figures.

For Sinn Fein, this is the first poll since mid-May that doesn’t have them as the biggest party. They are on 22%, no change from the last Red C poll but still 4% ahead of Fianna Fail. They are now consistently being reported as ahead of Fianna Fail, though there is enough uncertainty here to refrain from confirming them as ‘more popular than Fianna Fail’. 4% is only 1% over the margin of error, after all and the spate of polls in May because of the elections implies more consistency than is really there.

For their part, Fianna Fail are also stagnant on 18%. It seems they are still seen as part of the ‘establishment’ and are not benefitting much from the anti-politics mood among the public. They have now been in a fairly consistent mid-table position for quite a while, hovering around the 20% mark since at least January. They now also seem to be being passed by Sinn Fein and getting pushed into third place, fourth including Independents, Despite their previous dominant position in Irish politics, this may be quite a respectable position for Fianna Fail, given their recent history, public bitterness towards them and the anti-establishment mood in the country.

Of the very small parties, the Greens gain 1% from the last Red C poll and are now on 3% while the listing of ‘Other Party’ loses 1 and is now on 0%. Both moves are well within the margin of error.

Overall, there is quite a lot of trend-bucking here, the government parties have gained support despite being in a downward trend since December for Fine Gael and since the General Election for Labour. The other trend of the last years has been the growth of Sinn Fein and Independents which has been halted in this poll at least for the moment. As a result of the anomalous figures, we can’t draw any firm conclusions until we see more polls and more data, this could be the beginning of a resurgent government, fresh with a new Labour party leader, cabinet reshuffle and a new focus in the run up to the general election, or it could just be a blip before the continued march of anti-establishment candidates.

To see the effect of this poll on the national polling aggregate, click here.