In our first Florida poll five short days ago we were surprised to report that Mitt Romney had regained the lead. We shouldn’t have been surprised, because Mitt Romney is now not only leading, he may win a majority of votes in the Sunshine State GOP Primary.

Here are our latest results both with the normal “undecided” option plus a projection without undecideds:

The snowbird-influenced, somewhat less conservative voter base of Florida is forcing the pendulum to swing back into Romney’s arena, but as Joe Scarborough wrote in an excellent Politico.com article about Gingrich…

A Gingrich campaign is always a high wire act without the net and sometimes, the main actor in this manic routine actually makes it to the other side.  Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72084_Page3.html#ixzz1kuEpyu5T

Gingrich’s benefactors have deep pockets and are single-minded. Newt’s their guy and they will undoubtedly write enough checks to keep him in the game and area TV stations fat and happy. And the Newtonian Brigade will continue to fantasize about the prospect of Gingrich debating President Obama should he find a way to regain his bearings.

Then again, a big win by Romney in Florida will undoubtedly help restore his previous aura of being the inevitable winner (60% in Florida predict that)–unless more conservative voters in upcoming primaries slingshot Newt back in the lead.

We’re getting whiplash…and this roller coaster ride isn’t over yet.

We have a motto at We Ask America Polls: The Numbers are the Numbers. That means that if the audience we dial meets our standards, we don’t second-guess the results–even if the numbers buck conventional wisdom.

That’s the situation we face with our first Florida poll that swims against the tide of Newt Gingrich surging in the Sunshine State. Instead, we’re showing Mitt Romney rebounding sufficiently to regain a slight, margin-of-error lead.

Here are the head-to-head results, plus results to our question concerning which candidate voters think will ultimately win the nomination:

Granted, this poll was completed just minutes before another debate commenced–a forum where Gingrich often excels and Romney can display an equivocating persona. But we believe that Florida voters are still making up their minds and the next few days could make pollsters nauseous from heaving swells of change. A key indicator for us is that Romney one again easily leading the pack when we asked who voters thought would ultimately win the nomination without regard to their personal choice.

Of course, if Rick Santorum and/or Ron Paul decide to drop out of the race, the dynamics can change in a heartbeat. In the meantime, the numbers prevail…but we’ll soon be back to check the mindset of Florida voters.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

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On a tumultuous day in Republican politics, Newt Gingrich surged ahead in our latest South Carolina tracking poll. Whether it holds or not is anyone’s guess as upheaval prevails in the Palmetto State.

In an explosive day in GOP presidential politics, one candidate — Rick Perry — exited from the race while throwing his support to Gingrich. Meanwhile, one of Gingrich’s ex-wives told ABC News (among other accusations) that Newt had asked for an “open marriage” to sanctify his cheating. If that weren’t enough, it was revealed that Iowa’s slapdash caucus nose count missed a few nostrils, and Rick Santorum–not Mitt Romney–was the actual winner. Whew.

Frankly, all of this turmoil makes for a lousy polling environment, so we want to you to be fully aware of the snapshot the following topline results produced.  These numbers could settle down tomorrow…or not. Here are tonight’s numbers with the previous two poll results:

Is this latest set of results a flick-of-the-polling-needle, or has Gingrich found the keys to stopping the Romney Express? It’s difficult to believe that the behavior that his ex-wife is reporting won’t have a negative impact on the former Speaker. But for now, there seems to be a damn-the-media knee jerk support for Gingrich–not dissimilar to the circle-the-wagon glow Herman Cain received when women from his past first cropped up.

This type of havoc-induced poll data may make for unpredictable outcomes, but it’s great political theater. Grab some popcorn and enjoy yourself this Saturday.

Mitt Romney is close to closing the deal.

After laying back early on while the competition carved themselves up, Romney finally flexed his bankroll in Iowa and won in a caucus squeaker. Then, he fulfilled the high expectations that experts bestowed on his campaign in New Hampshire. Since then, the former governor of Massachusetts has been ducking the poison arrows now flying at a furious pace as he campaigns in the next stop, South Carolina.

We first polled the Palmetto State last week and found Romney to be holding his own with a soft lead over Newt Gingrich. But in the last five days, Romney has been the subject of  focused vitriol for his business practices, religion, Massachusetts health care program, and his stance on…well…everything. The most intense carping has been reserved for Romney’s past role at Bain Capital. The attacks have been articulate and sharp edged, although may have lost some steam when it was exposed that a big heaping helping of the mud thrown was based on Bain’s activity after Romney left. Oops.

So how has Romney fared as the human dart board? We asked 989 South Carolina voters who told us they will vote in the upcoming Republican primary the same round of questions as last week. First, let’s look at the head-to-head results and compare the two dates:

Although he’s been under intense scrutiny this week, the body blows Romney has been receiving are failing to leave a mark. He continues to inch up, and now be impossible to stop absent any true blockbuster headline. Like last week (and as we did in our final Iowa poll), we also asked our participants who they think will ultimately be the GOP nominee for president without regard to their personal choice. Here are the results from last week and Sunday night:

For the first time since asking the “ultimate winner” question, Romney has broken through the 50 percent ceiling. Empirical evidence abounds that Democrats are now believing that Romney will be The One, as operatives big and small (including ubber-operative David Axelrod) are picking up the Republican naysayers mantra about Bain Capital. Still, the Romney train is chugging on up the hill as this competition keeps coming up short. With Jon Huntsman allegedly dropping out of the race and endorsing Romney, a solid win in South Carolina followed by a victory in Florida would probably make his ultimate victory inevitable.

If the GOP primaries were an opera, a caloric-challenged diva may be clearing her voice and getting ready to sing.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

According to Conventional Wisdom, New Hampshire’s primary tonight (which we skipped to avoid the crowd and concentrate on other areas) will provide GOP frontrunner-in-waiting, Mitt Romney, with his second straight win and a chance to begin fulfilling pundits’ prophecies pointing to his ultimate victory. If the Granite State is his true launch pad, then South Carolina will offer the opportunity for Romney to start leaving other GOP hopefuls in the dust. But Romney’s numbers in the Granite State are slowly ratcheting down as he finally becomes the pincushion in the lead. Attack ads have, naturally, taken over the New Hampshire airwaves and the blogosphere. Some of those ads have legitimate points, while some…well…are just bizarre. Our favorite: the one that accuses Romney of starting a business with a goal of – GASP –  making lots of money!

Now that Romney’s rope-a-dope strategy can no longer be used, those slings and arrows are having an effect, although most pundits think Romney will still prevail. If he wins with 30+ percent of the vote, the ensuing Primary in South Carolina may give him the octane to distance himself from the pack.

So, as the nation’s attention turns northeast, we turned our attention to the bucolic regions of the Palmetto State where we asked 993 likely voters in the South Carolina GOP primary two main questions:

1. If the GOP primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?
2. No matter who you’re for, which candidate do you think ultimately be the GOP nominee?

Here are the results:

Clearly, Romney has made great strides in South Carolina–aided in part by an endorsement from that state’s popular governor and the continued underlying belief that his victory may be inevitable. Here’s how each candidate’s supporters responded to the “who will ultimately win” question in the crosstab below. (Here’s how to read the table: left to right, the first row indicates that 61% of the people who say they support Newt Gingrich think that Newt will indeed be the ultimate winner, while 1 percent of those Gingrich supporters think that Huntsman will ultimately win, and 2 percent think Ron Paul will win…and so on.) Here’s the table:

As we’ve seen in Iowa and as others have measured throughout the nation, Romney is increasingly being viewed among the GOP as the one who will prevail. True, if there’s a surprise in New Hampshire, shifts can quickly occur in South Carolina, so we’ll revisit here soon.

But for now, Romney is hoping that tonight will finally tip over that domino that starts a chain reaction to victory.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

Our last presidential tracking poll in Iowa mirrors what most others are showing in their polling: Mitt Romney may be finally breaking through the clutter. And while Romney’s detractors will undoubtedly snort in derision about his lackluster numbers in the head-to-head category, it gets more interesting when we asked them: “No matter who you support, which candidate do you think will ultimately be the GOP candidate for president?”

First , here are the top-line results from our December 29, 2011 poll of 889 Iowa voters who confirmed they plan to participate in a Republican caucus. The first column is the normal head-to-head results, while the second column shows who the poll participants think will ultimately prevail:

While many in the media seem to be focusing on the move up the food chain by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum and the falling numbers for the last flavor-of-the-day Ron Paul, Romney seems finally to be breaking through as Iowa Republicans get closer to Caucus Day. Perhaps more important is the fact that 39 percent of all poll participants believe that Romney will ultimately be the flag carrier for the GOP in the fall.

Let’s see how each candidate’s supporters responded to the “who will ultimately win” question in the crosstab below. (It can be a little confusing reading this…here’s an example: reading left to right, the first row indicates that 51% of the people who say they will support Michelle Bachmann in a caucus believe that she will indeed be the ultimate winner, while 5 percent of those will vote for her believe that Newt Gingrich will ultimately win, and 2 percent think Huntsman will win…and so on.) Here’s the table:

Of course, the madcap Iowa caucus system offers lots of chances for rapid ascent and descent–and bad weather can improve the prospects of those candidates with good corn-fed organizations…like Ron Paul. Plus, time will certainly tell whether the newly found popularity of Santorum will be lasting or not.

But maybe–just maybe–Mitt Romney will finally begin to fulfill the destiny so many others have predicted for him.

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Remember that rounding each entry to the nearest whole number leads to some columns or rows not adding up exactly to 100%.

NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

Thanks go to a reader who pointed out that we incorrectly stated that we talked 889 Republicans for this poll. In reality, 889 people who said they would participate in a Republican Caucus answered the questions. That, as our reader pointed out, does not necessarily make them “Republicans.”

It’s becoming all too predictable.

As soon as a GOP presidential candidate gains traction in Iowa, the bright lights hit him/her and they melt down like a cheap candle. The latest to follow the pattern is, of course, Newt Gingrich. Just 15 days ago, we measured Newt with a robust 30 percent. But everyone—including the merry elves at We Ask America—warned that Gingrich could soon travail down the Newt Chute due to the cyclical habits exhibited by GOP frontrunners and the former Speaker’s penchant for provocative barbs.

Sure enough, Gingrich appears to be fading badly, but those who have dumped him seem to have spread their new affections more evenly than others have reported. While Ron Paul has picked up a bit more of Newt’s castoffs,  the field is starting to look like a real horse race. Here’s our latest numbers from last night and a tracking comparison of the last five polls we conducted in the Hawkeye State:

TRACKER:

The results for Ron Paul in last night’s poll may actually be a couple of points better than it shows here among the general electorate due to his strength in the 35-44 & 45-54 age brackets, but the Iowa caucuses skew older so we’re not ready to grant him the Clear Leader Status yet. However, Paul reportedly is the only candidate who has the ground troops to put a live body in each of the 1,700+ Iowa precincts…an impressive feat to say the least. In addition, Congressman Paul has been among the most consistent performers in Iowa and elsewhere. Combine those facts with the quirkiness of Iowa caucus system and it’s impossible to not put him at the top of the heap for now.

But perhaps Paul would be better off NOT being looked at as the Big Kahuna given the fate of the last few players who occupied the top of the leader board. Like the Greek legend of Icarus, every Republican who flies too close to the sun in an attempt to escape the surly bonds of the pack ends up melting his/her wings in the blazing heat of the sun.

With President Barack Obama reportedly regaining some lost ground, can the Republicans finally find someone who can take the heat?

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*Note: the August 16 Iowa poll included 7% for Sarah Palin while she was still rumored to be in the running. You can view our previous posts on Iowa here, here,  here and here.

As the weight of accusations of harassment and infidelity (and/or serving as a human ATM for female friends) piled up for Herman Cain, his decision to pull the plug on his presidential campaign was no surprise. But what would it mean for the field of GOP hopefuls in Iowa?

Not that much, as it turns out.

We asked 970 Iowa Republicans who said they would participate in the January 3rd Caucus who they backed as part of our ongoing tracking in the Hawkeye state. Here’s what they said:

And here’s a comparison of all the recent polls we’ve done in Iowa:

*Note: the August 16 Iowa poll included 7% for Sarah Palin while she was still rumored to be in the running. You can view our previous posts on Iowa here, here and here.

Whether or not Newt Gingrich will maintain his lead or–as conventional beltway wisdom whispers–melt in the bright, hot lights of being the frontrunner, only time will tell. In the meantime, bridesmaid Mitt Romney must be wondering when the bells will ring for him.

Our last Iowa test came just after Herman Cain‘s past problems surfaced, but before many details or additional accusers were exposed. Since then, most of the other Republican candidates have plodded through the Hawkeyes’ cornfields and watched as Newt Gingrich quietly ascended back up the slippery rungs of the nation’s political ladder.

Those who predicted Gingrich’s demise months ago have had to eat a bit of crow lately as the former House Speaker maintained a long self-induced binge of measured presence. While few question Gingrich’s keen intellect, even fewer believed he could control his penchant for occasional outbursts that pin the needle on the Bizarro-meter.  Sure enough, those waiting for him to pop off yet another verbal grenade jumped ugly on his “get a bath, then get a job” quote concerning the Occupy Wall Street movement. But that throw-away line threw a little red meat into the corner of the True Believers who were already starting to rally behind their newly awakened hero.

Gingrich followed his snarky comment against the Occupy Movement with statements about immigration that infuriated some of his staunchest supporters–especially since he poked many in his own party in the eye by saying:

“I don’t see how the party that says it’s the party of the family is going to adopt an immigration policy which destroys families that have been here a quarter century.”

His so-called soft-on-immigration views set up a blur of Tweets, texts, blogs and moans. A top staffer for Iowa’s Republican Governor Terry Branstad tweeted that Gingrich “did himself significant harm tonight on immigration among caucus and primary voters,” and his opponents tried to pile on. But as the press (and some supporters) pointed out, Newt’s stance on immigration–while evolving–has a consistency of theme and thought. And many of those who disagree with him on that issue gave him a pass for both his forthrightness and reasoned approach. The presidential primary’s perennial bridesmaid, Mitt Romney, tried to get some traction on the issue, but had to answer questions about his own flip-floppish background on the issue. Still, Romney’s assertion that Gingrich’s position on amnesty would serve as a magnet for illegal immigration was oft quoted and paraphrased by many and undoubtedly serves to provide spice to a fairly mundane political debate horizon.

Whether Gingrich to can survive the ongoing Whack-a-Mole game being played in the Republican primary is anyone’s guess. But as the following results show, he’s surging for now:

	Bachmann	Cain	Gingrich	Huntsman	Paul	Perry	Romney	Santorum	Uncertain
ALL VOTERS	13%	7%	29%	4%	11%	5%	13%	5%	13%
GENDER
Female	13%	7%	28%	3%	9%	6%	12%	5%	18%
Male	12%	8%	33%	4%	12%	6%	13%	4%	7%
AGE BRACKET
18-24	54%	4%	12%	0%	17%	4%	4%	0%	4%
25-34	44%	10%	10%	3%	13%	5%	8%	3%	5%
35-44	3%	10%	45%	3%	6%	0%	19%	0%	13%
45-54	7%	12%	30%	3%	18%	3%	8%	8%	10%
55-64	8%	11%	30%	8%	8%	4%	14%	5%	14%
65+	8%	4%	34%	3%	8%	9%	16%	4%	15%

Type of Poll: Automated
Date of Poll: 11/28/2011
Participants: 962 GOP voters
Margin of Error: ± 3.16%
Although we suspect these results represent more of a spike than a lasting spread, there is no doubt that Gingrich has a strong lead in Iowa for now. However, Newt needs to look no further that Herman Cain’s numbers in this poll to see how quickly the earth can shift in politics.

Our belief that these results may represent a flick in the measurement gauge will be tested when we go back into Iowa in a week or so. In the meantime, we’ll see how well Gingrich endures as the pin cushion du jour.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

GOP presidential hopeful Herman Cain certainly has had better weeks.  Just as he gained traction and broke through the Republican candidate clutter, news surfaced of a decade-old sexual harassment problem. While we still don’t know the details, Cain and his campaign staff flubbed their response badly by coming up with dizzying array of replies. Yet, Cain remains strong in national polls–perhaps an indication of the disdain many in the Right have for the national media and they way the story seemed to ooze out from another campaign, not the alleged victims.

With Iowa’s caucuses looming ever closer, we thought this would be a good time to go back into the Heartland to see if those clear-eyed, corn-fed Iowa voters reflect the national trend to embrace Cain while the facts of the accusations remain just out of reach. So, we asked 864 Iowans who told us they planned to participate in a GOP caucus this simple question:

Here are the responses:

Iowa: GOP Presidential

Iowa Republicans, like the rest of the nation, seem to be standing by Cain…at least until more facts come out. We found it interesting, though, that Newt Gingrich continues to claw his way up through the pack to the point where he is now just behind frontrunner Cain. Gingrich, whose intellect is just as impressive as his ability to make you forget about it when he spews incredibly wild statements, has been methodically rising up the ranks the last few weeks by staying on message and drafting behind the frontrunner’s bumpy ride. And Mitt Romney–the candidate pundits most often mention as the ultimate winner–just can’t seem to break through the logjam.

If Cain’s problems continue to grow, we may see Gingrich surge ahead here to take the lead. But given Newt’s penchant for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, could Iowa finally give Romney the boost he’s needs to make the pundits’ consensus winner land on top?

There’s LOTS of time left here, and the jockeys are just now going to the whip. We think the smart move here is to expect the unexpected.

Type of Poll: Automated
Date of Poll: 11/6/2011
Participants: 864 GOP voters
Margin of Error: ± 3.33%

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.