Democrat Jesse Jackson, Jr. has had a bumpy ride the last few years. Beyond reported personal indiscretions that produced tabloid-ready headlines, Jackson has been under an ethics microscope for his role in an alleged scheme to raise funds for former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich in exchange for an appointment to Barack Obama’s Senate seat. The renegade head-of-hair Blago will soon be a guest of the federal prison system, but the probe into what happened continues. To that end, the Office of Congressional Ethics looked into Congressman Jackson’s actions during the Blagojevich escapade and concluded:

“There is probable cause to believe that Rep. Jackson either (1) directed a third-party to raise money for Gov. Blagojevich in exchange for appointing Rep. Jackson to (President Obama’s former) senate seat, or (2) had knowledge that…(an ally) would likely make such an offer… Jackson and his staff (used) staff resources both in Washington and Chicago…to mount a ‘public campaign’ to secure (his) appointment to the senate.”

Yeeouch.

Enter Debbie Halvorson, former State Senator and one-term Member of Congress who lost in 2010 to Republican Adam Kinzinger. The re-map of Illinois’ congressional districts gave Halvorson a fighting chance as the new 2nd District dipped into the south Chicagoland suburbs and Jackson continued to be a magnet for bad headlines. Halvorson’s party-line voting record that got her into some hot water in her old blue-collar conservative district is a better fit in Illinois 2′s ethnically diverse area. Plus, some super-PAC funds have been directed to her side.

So with all of Jackson’s problems and Halvorson’s advantages,  this certainly ought to be a barn burner of a race, right?

Not so much:

Clearly, the voters of Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District aren’t buying into conventional wisdom. We’ve included the Ethnic Origin breakdowns to show there is a definite Minority/White split of opinion. Of course there’s still time for Halvorson to reduce the gap, and if the 50+ percent of voters who are African American stay home on Primary Day (March 20), we may be in for a surprise.

But for now, Congressman Jackson appears ready to prove the naysayers wrong.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

We’ve had a number of requests for primary polls in some key congressional districts across the nation, and we kick off a brief series of these with a look into the Republican race in Illinois 16. CD16 was carved into a GOP-heavy district that pits longtime Congressman Don Manzullo against one-term wunderkind Adam Kinzinger. The new district cobbles together parts of Manzullo’s current 16th District, a portion of Kinzingers’ 11th and some new turf for both.

Kinzinger handily beat Blue Dog Democrat incumbent Debbie Halvorson in 2010 in a conservative blue-collar district after Halvorson voted in lockstep with her party’s agenda. True, 2010 was a good year for Republican in most places, but Kinzinger impressed many with his work ethic and Boy Scout image that has held up to scrutiny.

Manzullo first won office in 1992 by defeating one-term Democrat John Cox. He has been reelected seven more times, all by easy margins in this heavily Republican former district. Redistricting forced the perennial Congressman head-to-head with the upstart Kinzinger. Rumors swirled early that Manzullo was considering retirement due to family health concerns, but he eventually announced he’d run again in the newly redesigned district. Kinzinger–looking for a home since his district was carved up–set his sites on the 16th and hasn’t stopped campaigning since.

Most agree that whoever wins this primary will ease through the General Election, so we asked 1,395 likely Republican voters in Illinois 16 how they plan to vote. Here’s what they said:

A deeper look into where the responses to this poll came from reveals that Manzullo continues to lead comfortably in the areas he represented prior to the re-map, while young Adam Kinzinger is cleaning up in both his former area and the areas that are new to both candidates. As we always like to point out: a single poll in a given district should never be taken as a prediction of the inevitable. But the internal numbers–especially WHERE the responses came from–point to Kinzinger as the clear leader for now.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

Arizona presidential politics have been pretty darn predictable over the last 60 years. Except for 1996–when the Grand Canyon State gave the electoral nod to Bill Clinton–Arizona voters have selected Republican presidential candidates for the past six decades.

The state became the epicenter for the nation’s immigration debate when it passed tough new regulations (along with an executive order from Gov. Jan Brewer) that–among other things–expanded law enforcement’s parameters over what constitutes “reasonable suspicion”of  illegal immigrant status. Brewer became a pin cushion for those who disagreed with the state’s approach, and the issue continues to be a major force here. Some pundits are predicting that immigration could ultimately be the catalyst causing a win for a Democrat presidential candidate for only the second time since 1952.

Still, Arizona is certainly not a one-trick pony when it comes to issues of interest to the electorate, and GOP hopefuls believe voters here will stay the course in the fall.

With that in mind, we asked 1,155 likely GOP voters in Arizona the following main question:

If the Republican Primary Election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Here are the results:

While Mitt Romney may be enjoying a 10-point lead today (some say largely attributable to the sizable Mormon population in Arizona), it’s hard to ignore Rick Santorum’s impressive track record of moving up rapidly at times. Clearly, the attention that Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu’s controversy is creating is drawing the spotlight from the news cycles that would normally be focused on the GOP presidential hopefuls.

If (when?) Sheriff Babeau’s coverage dies down, there may be enough energy left over to move some numbers here.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

The State of Michigan has displayed its fair share of mojo lately. From Clint Eastwood’s breathy Super Bowl ad proclaiming the U.S. auto industry as the economic beacon of hope, to the Detroit Red Wings 20+ home winning streak, Michigan appears to be collectively looking ahead–not back.

Perhaps it’s the Wolverine State’s new-found moxy that is shaking up its Republican Primary and giving Rick Santorum a boost. Just two weeks ago some considered Michigan as a forgone conclusion for Mitt Romney thanks to his father’s legacy as governor, but many pollsters are showing Santorum with a decent lead. However, some analysts have been cautioning that Romney should not be written off, especially in light of the recent history of new frontrunners quickly melting in the bright, hot lights of media scrutiny.

Those pundits may have been right. Santorum didn’t have a great weekend–getting in a bit of hot water by using the term “phony theology” in reference to President Obama’s agenda. That may be red meat for some, but the statement teed up the ball for the press and Santorum had to tap dance as they shot at his feet. That gaffe allowed Romney’s troops to howl about Santorum being too conservative to win (while, of course, saying that their guy is the TRUE conservative in the race).

So what’s that mean for next week’s election? Last night, we asked 1,025 likely GOP voters in Michigan for their choice in next week’s primary. Beyond the usual range of demographics, we asked them one main question:

“If the Republican Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?”

Here are the results:

NOTE: A sharp-eyed viewer caught that our age bracket demographics are garbling the results from our database, so we’ve removed them until our technical gurus can straighten it out.

Whether or not Santorum can regain his own mojo down the stretch after his weekend of faux pas will be measured when we revisit Michigan next Sunday.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

In our first Florida poll five short days ago we were surprised to report that Mitt Romney had regained the lead. We shouldn’t have been surprised, because Mitt Romney is now not only leading, he may win a majority of votes in the Sunshine State GOP Primary.

Here are our latest results both with the normal “undecided” option plus a projection without undecideds:

The snowbird-influenced, somewhat less conservative voter base of Florida is forcing the pendulum to swing back into Romney’s arena, but as Joe Scarborough wrote in an excellent Politico.com article about Gingrich…

A Gingrich campaign is always a high wire act without the net and sometimes, the main actor in this manic routine actually makes it to the other side.  Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72084_Page3.html#ixzz1kuEpyu5T

Gingrich’s benefactors have deep pockets and are single-minded. Newt’s their guy and they will undoubtedly write enough checks to keep him in the game and area TV stations fat and happy. And the Newtonian Brigade will continue to fantasize about the prospect of Gingrich debating President Obama should he find a way to regain his bearings.

Then again, a big win by Romney in Florida will undoubtedly help restore his previous aura of being the inevitable winner (60% in Florida predict that)–unless more conservative voters in upcoming primaries slingshot Newt back in the lead.

We’re getting whiplash…and this roller coaster ride isn’t over yet.

We have a motto at We Ask America Polls: The Numbers are the Numbers. That means that if the audience we dial meets our standards, we don’t second-guess the results–even if the numbers buck conventional wisdom.

That’s the situation we face with our first Florida poll that swims against the tide of Newt Gingrich surging in the Sunshine State. Instead, we’re showing Mitt Romney rebounding sufficiently to regain a slight, margin-of-error lead.

Here are the head-to-head results, plus results to our question concerning which candidate voters think will ultimately win the nomination:

Granted, this poll was completed just minutes before another debate commenced–a forum where Gingrich often excels and Romney can display an equivocating persona. But we believe that Florida voters are still making up their minds and the next few days could make pollsters nauseous from heaving swells of change. A key indicator for us is that Romney one again easily leading the pack when we asked who voters thought would ultimately win the nomination without regard to their personal choice.

Of course, if Rick Santorum and/or Ron Paul decide to drop out of the race, the dynamics can change in a heartbeat. In the meantime, the numbers prevail…but we’ll soon be back to check the mindset of Florida voters.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

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On a tumultuous day in Republican politics, Newt Gingrich surged ahead in our latest South Carolina tracking poll. Whether it holds or not is anyone’s guess as upheaval prevails in the Palmetto State.

In an explosive day in GOP presidential politics, one candidate — Rick Perry — exited from the race while throwing his support to Gingrich. Meanwhile, one of Gingrich’s ex-wives told ABC News (among other accusations) that Newt had asked for an “open marriage” to sanctify his cheating. If that weren’t enough, it was revealed that Iowa’s slapdash caucus nose count missed a few nostrils, and Rick Santorum–not Mitt Romney–was the actual winner. Whew.

Frankly, all of this turmoil makes for a lousy polling environment, so we want to you to be fully aware of the snapshot the following topline results produced.  These numbers could settle down tomorrow…or not. Here are tonight’s numbers with the previous two poll results:

Is this latest set of results a flick-of-the-polling-needle, or has Gingrich found the keys to stopping the Romney Express? It’s difficult to believe that the behavior that his ex-wife is reporting won’t have a negative impact on the former Speaker. But for now, there seems to be a damn-the-media knee jerk support for Gingrich–not dissimilar to the circle-the-wagon glow Herman Cain received when women from his past first cropped up.

This type of havoc-induced poll data may make for unpredictable outcomes, but it’s great political theater. Grab some popcorn and enjoy yourself this Saturday.

Mitt Romney is close to closing the deal.

After laying back early on while the competition carved themselves up, Romney finally flexed his bankroll in Iowa and won in a caucus squeaker. Then, he fulfilled the high expectations that experts bestowed on his campaign in New Hampshire. Since then, the former governor of Massachusetts has been ducking the poison arrows now flying at a furious pace as he campaigns in the next stop, South Carolina.

We first polled the Palmetto State last week and found Romney to be holding his own with a soft lead over Newt Gingrich. But in the last five days, Romney has been the subject of  focused vitriol for his business practices, religion, Massachusetts health care program, and his stance on…well…everything. The most intense carping has been reserved for Romney’s past role at Bain Capital. The attacks have been articulate and sharp edged, although may have lost some steam when it was exposed that a big heaping helping of the mud thrown was based on Bain’s activity after Romney left. Oops.

So how has Romney fared as the human dart board? We asked 989 South Carolina voters who told us they will vote in the upcoming Republican primary the same round of questions as last week. First, let’s look at the head-to-head results and compare the two dates:

Although he’s been under intense scrutiny this week, the body blows Romney has been receiving are failing to leave a mark. He continues to inch up, and now be impossible to stop absent any true blockbuster headline. Like last week (and as we did in our final Iowa poll), we also asked our participants who they think will ultimately be the GOP nominee for president without regard to their personal choice. Here are the results from last week and Sunday night:

For the first time since asking the “ultimate winner” question, Romney has broken through the 50 percent ceiling. Empirical evidence abounds that Democrats are now believing that Romney will be The One, as operatives big and small (including ubber-operative David Axelrod) are picking up the Republican naysayers mantra about Bain Capital. Still, the Romney train is chugging on up the hill as this competition keeps coming up short. With Jon Huntsman allegedly dropping out of the race and endorsing Romney, a solid win in South Carolina followed by a victory in Florida would probably make his ultimate victory inevitable.

If the GOP primaries were an opera, a caloric-challenged diva may be clearing her voice and getting ready to sing.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

According to Conventional Wisdom, New Hampshire’s primary tonight (which we skipped to avoid the crowd and concentrate on other areas) will provide GOP frontrunner-in-waiting, Mitt Romney, with his second straight win and a chance to begin fulfilling pundits’ prophecies pointing to his ultimate victory. If the Granite State is his true launch pad, then South Carolina will offer the opportunity for Romney to start leaving other GOP hopefuls in the dust. But Romney’s numbers in the Granite State are slowly ratcheting down as he finally becomes the pincushion in the lead. Attack ads have, naturally, taken over the New Hampshire airwaves and the blogosphere. Some of those ads have legitimate points, while some…well…are just bizarre. Our favorite: the one that accuses Romney of starting a business with a goal of – GASP –  making lots of money!

Now that Romney’s rope-a-dope strategy can no longer be used, those slings and arrows are having an effect, although most pundits think Romney will still prevail. If he wins with 30+ percent of the vote, the ensuing Primary in South Carolina may give him the octane to distance himself from the pack.

So, as the nation’s attention turns northeast, we turned our attention to the bucolic regions of the Palmetto State where we asked 993 likely voters in the South Carolina GOP primary two main questions:

1. If the GOP primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?
2. No matter who you’re for, which candidate do you think ultimately be the GOP nominee?

Here are the results:

Clearly, Romney has made great strides in South Carolina–aided in part by an endorsement from that state’s popular governor and the continued underlying belief that his victory may be inevitable. Here’s how each candidate’s supporters responded to the “who will ultimately win” question in the crosstab below. (Here’s how to read the table: left to right, the first row indicates that 61% of the people who say they support Newt Gingrich think that Newt will indeed be the ultimate winner, while 1 percent of those Gingrich supporters think that Huntsman will ultimately win, and 2 percent think Ron Paul will win…and so on.) Here’s the table:

As we’ve seen in Iowa and as others have measured throughout the nation, Romney is increasingly being viewed among the GOP as the one who will prevail. True, if there’s a surprise in New Hampshire, shifts can quickly occur in South Carolina, so we’ll revisit here soon.

But for now, Romney is hoping that tonight will finally tip over that domino that starts a chain reaction to victory.

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NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America Polls™. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

Our last presidential tracking poll in Iowa mirrors what most others are showing in their polling: Mitt Romney may be finally breaking through the clutter. And while Romney’s detractors will undoubtedly snort in derision about his lackluster numbers in the head-to-head category, it gets more interesting when we asked them: “No matter who you support, which candidate do you think will ultimately be the GOP candidate for president?”

First , here are the top-line results from our December 29, 2011 poll of 889 Iowa voters who confirmed they plan to participate in a Republican caucus. The first column is the normal head-to-head results, while the second column shows who the poll participants think will ultimately prevail:

While many in the media seem to be focusing on the move up the food chain by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum and the falling numbers for the last flavor-of-the-day Ron Paul, Romney seems finally to be breaking through as Iowa Republicans get closer to Caucus Day. Perhaps more important is the fact that 39 percent of all poll participants believe that Romney will ultimately be the flag carrier for the GOP in the fall.

Let’s see how each candidate’s supporters responded to the “who will ultimately win” question in the crosstab below. (It can be a little confusing reading this…here’s an example: reading left to right, the first row indicates that 51% of the people who say they will support Michelle Bachmann in a caucus believe that she will indeed be the ultimate winner, while 5 percent of those will vote for her believe that Newt Gingrich will ultimately win, and 2 percent think Huntsman will win…and so on.) Here’s the table:

Of course, the madcap Iowa caucus system offers lots of chances for rapid ascent and descent–and bad weather can improve the prospects of those candidates with good corn-fed organizations…like Ron Paul. Plus, time will certainly tell whether the newly found popularity of Santorum will be lasting or not.

But maybe–just maybe–Mitt Romney will finally begin to fulfill the destiny so many others have predicted for him.

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Remember that rounding each entry to the nearest whole number leads to some columns or rows not adding up exactly to 100%.

NOTE: This poll was paid for by We Ask America. The information has not been shared with any public official, candidate, cause or campaign.

Thanks go to a reader who pointed out that we incorrectly stated that we talked 889 Republicans for this poll. In reality, 889 people who said they would participate in a Republican Caucus answered the questions. That, as our reader pointed out, does not necessarily make them “Republicans.”