WTNT32 KNHC 021745
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

…EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.7N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI…395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI…1155 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…943 MB…27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY…AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS…
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT…AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH…205
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY…BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES…370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 943 MB…27.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WINDS…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA…STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Earl has turned nearly due north this morning, as expected (great job NHC).  It will be very rough in the outer banks of NC, even if there is no direct hit, since max winds are 140 mph and oneshore flow north of storm will cause storm surge and large waves.  Landfall may actually occur near Cape Cod tomorrow night, but the hurricane should weaken some by then.  However, the size of this hurricane will cause its effects to be felt by milliions of people, as it runs offshore of the Washington/Baltimore/Philly/NYC/Boston area, with winds up to 50 mph, coastal storm surge, and waves.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON…IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE
THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS…AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS ANTICIPATED…EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED…EARL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/1200Z…ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

…..Myrtle Beach…..Sunny, north sustained 17 mph

…..Cape Lookout, N.C., wind NE 27, gusts 33

…..Buoy 41010, wind NW 25, gusts 34, 13-foot waves

…..Cape Hatteras, cloudy, wind east 13, gusts 24

…..Buoy 300 NM south of Myrtle Beach (345 land miles) water temperature 84, (hurricanes love that)…wind NW 26, gusts 34, 13 foot waves at 13 second intervals

…..West Bermuda buoy No. 41048, wind ESE, gusts 30, waves 13 feet at 13 second intervals

…..Buoy 41001, 150 NM miles east Cape Hatteras, wind east at 30 mph, 16 foot waves occurring every nine seconds. Sea surface temperature 82

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS…
MAJOR HURRICANE EARL WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
MOVE JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY…THEN
ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
– Changed Discussion –
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY…NO SIGNIF CHANGES AT THIS POINT AS ANY MAJOR
CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON UPDATES FROM NHC. BASED ON QPF FROM HPC
INCREASED POPS A BIT TO LIKELY WHERE WE ARE SHOWING 1/4 INCH OR MORE
OF QPF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISC…PLEASE SEE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT AND
NHC ADVISORY FOR LATEST EARL INFO. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO NEAR-TERM
FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF RAINFALL INTO THE AREA BY
ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRACK OF EARL AND LATEST
NAM12/GFS AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. CIRRUS SHIELD WILL THICKEN THRU
THE MORNING WITH RAIN ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SOLAR HEATING DURING THE MORNING TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S MOST AREAS.
– End Changed Discussion –

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/…
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY…MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT ON
THE TRACK OF EARL JUST OFF THE ERN NC COAST BEFORE ACCELERATING
AWAY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT TIME ON OUR CWA STILL LOOKS
TO BE ROUGHLY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THRU MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY.
LATEST PROBABILITY FORECASTS FROM NHC PUTS HIGH PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE
COUNTIES…WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
CARTERET COUNTY…ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS INLAND FROM JONES COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL STORM
WIND WARNING FOR COUNTIES FURTHER INLAND. WILL DECIDE FOLLOWING
THE NEXT ADVISORY. AS FOR RAINFALL…THERE WILL BE A SHARP
RAINFALL GRADIENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OVER OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY…ABOUT AN INCH TO
INCH AND A HALF OVER CARTERET COUNTY…RANGING TO LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD ON
ONCOMING COLD FRONT LEADING TO A RATHER WARM AFTERNOON…WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY…COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. OF NOTE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME AREAS INLAND DROPPING TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
THRU THE WEEK WITH MAXES BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDS AND THURS. RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
– Changed Discussion –
AS OF 9 AM THU…LINGERING FOG SHLD LIFT SHORTLY WITH INCREASING AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF EARL. EXPECT VFR MOST OF
THE DAY WITH POSS SOME MVFR CIGS LATE NEAR CST. NE WINDS WILL BE
GRAD INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH EWN/OAJ HAVING GUSTS AOA 25 KTS
LATE. WINDS WILL BE BACKING TO THE NORTH AFTER 00Z AS EARL GETS
CLOSER TO COASTAL NC. HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE FELT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS EWN/OAJ WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
THOUGH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE LIKELY FOR PGV/ISO AFTER 00Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HURRICANE
EARL MOVES NE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON W
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SAT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.
– End Changed Discussion –

&&

.MARINE…
– Changed Discussion –
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY…ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WINDS LATE THIS MORN AND EARLY AFTN TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISC…NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED TO CURRENT FORECAST AS ALL OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN AN EVENTUAL RE-CURVATURE
OF EARL OFF THE NC COAST (OUTER BANKS) TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DETERIORATING LATE TODAY AND PEAKING TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WAVE WATCH IS FORECASTING SEAS OF 30-35 FT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE STORM IS CURRENTLY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AND
WILL PRODUCE CAPTURED FETCH UP UNTIL THE STORM RECURVES TONIGHT. THE
POWERFUL WAVES WITH PERIODS AROUND 15 SECONDS WILL PRODUCE OCEAN
OVERWASH AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM ACCELERATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET AND
WINDS COULD HOVER AROUND 25 KT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
AFTER ABOUT 6 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE GRADIENT
COLLAPSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6
FT BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.

AT THIS TIME THE BIGGEST IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS…ESPECIALLY THE CORE AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE HIGH SURF IN EXCESS OF 15 FT IS EXPECTED AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND SIGNIFICANT OCEAN OVERWASH WILL BE LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
MODERATE SOUND-SIDE FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE OUTER BANKS AND PORTIONS OF CARTERET AND CRAVEN COUNTIES.
– End Changed Discussion –

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
NC…HURRICANE WARNING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-103-104.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044-079-090>092.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ098.
MARINE…HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
&&

…INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK…EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 355 MI…575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 820 MI…1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…932 MB…27.52 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT…AND BE VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/HR…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY…BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES…370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 932 MB…27.52 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WINDS…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE OUTER BANKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA…STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

MID 90s POSSIBLE TODAY: Before we get to that refreshing Labor Day weekend, the weather will be pretty hot today across the great state of Alabama. Most communities will reach the mid 90s with a good supply of sunshine. But, the humidity values will remain fairly low, so the heat won’t feel too bad.

FRIDAY FRONT: A cold front will pass through the state tomorrow night, and ahead of the front we will maintain some risk of showers and storms, but the moisture will be very limited, and rainfall amounts should be very light and spotty. I don’t think showers will be a big issue for high school football games. The day tomorrow should be partly sunny with a high in the low 90s.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Doesn’t get much better. Sunny pleasant days, low humidity, and clear cool nights. The high Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 80s, with lows dropping into the 55 to 59 degree range early Sunday and Monday. That means the cooler valleys across North Alabama will be somewhere between 49 and 52. A real breath of fresh air. Monday will stay dry with a sunny sky and a high at or just below 90.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: UAB hosts Florida Atlantic tonight at Legion Field at 7:00… the sky will be clear, and temperatures will fall from the upper 80s at kickoff into the upper 70s by the end of the game.

For tonight’s high school games, the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from the mid 80s at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter. Tomorrow night, there will be a few widely scattered showers and storms around. The chance of any one stadium getting wet is about one in five, and temperatures will fall into the mid 70s by the final whistle following a kickoff temperature in the low 80s.

Saturday evening, both Alabama and Auburn have home games that kickoff at 6:00 p.m. (Alabama hosts San Jose State, and Auburn will host Arkansas State). The weather will be delightful at both venues; a clear sky with low humidity and no risk of rain. The kickoff temperature at both sites will be close to 80, falling into the upper 60s by the fourth quarter. Doesn’t get much better.

EARL EYES THE OUTER BANKS: Hurricane Earl, most likely, is peaking in intensity this morning. A slow weakening trend should begin this afternoon as it moves over cooler water and some shearing begins, but it still should be a category three late tonight when it kisses the North Carolina Outer Banks. It will touch Cape Cod late tomorrow night as a category two (or a strong category one), and then it makes landfall over Nova Scotia Saturday. While I don’t expect any major structural damage, there will be lots of coastal flooding, downed trees and power lines, and very dangerous surf along the upper half of the Atlantic coast. Many low lying areas are being evacuated.

FIONA: This tropical storm will recurve well east of the U.S.; it will be close to Bermuda tomorrow night as it moves northeast.

GASTON: Still more questions than answers on the possible destination of this tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic. Most models bring this westward toward the Lesser Antilles, but in the long range the GFS recurves this one just off the Atlantic coast, very similar to Earl. But, that remains to be seen. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

HERMINE? The wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday at some point should become Tropical Storm Hermine as the wave train continues. Ultimate destination for now is unknown, but we will be watching.

GULF OF MEXICO: Don’t look now, but there is some disorganized convection in the Gulf west of Key West. We need about 8 eye balls to watch all of this tropical activity. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I will be speaking at the Springville Chamber of Commerce meeting today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

This bad boy looks very impressive on satellite images tonight. Here is the latest advisory from NHC:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

…EARL A LITTLE STRONGER…THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
COAST…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…27.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 520 MI…840 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…932 MB…27.52 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH…220
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY…BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 932 MB…27.52 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WINDS…TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA…STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

CAPE HATTERAS/OUTER BANKS
Hurricane Warning in effect. OK tonight but for Thursday, tropical storm conditions developing with hurricane conditions possible by late afternoon. East wind 15-20 mph becoming NE 20-30, gusts to 40 in the afternoon. For Thursday night…Tropical storm conditions with possible hurricane conditions.. Northeast wind 35-45 mph becoming northwest 40-50 mph after midnight, gusts to 65 mph increasing to 70 mph after midnight. For Friday, hurricane conditions possible in the morning. Wind gusts to 50 diminishing by afternoon.

NORFOLK
Tropical Storm and a Hurricane Watch. Wind gusts to 50 mph Thursday night and Friday.

WASHINGTON
Coastal Flood Watch 6 am Thursday until late Thursday night. No real strong winds.

NANTUCKET
Hurricane Watch
No unusual weather through Thursday night. On Friday, possible tropical storm conditions and even a possibility of hurricane conditions. East winds gusting to 55 mph Friday afternoon. Hurricane conditions possible Friday night with extensive rain, heavy at times. Northeast winds will increase to 50-60 mph with gusts as high as 75 mph. This will cause huge breaking waves. Improving weather is expected Saturday with sunny, cool weather Sunday.

27.2 North
73.5 West
…..565 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, N.C
…..Moving toward the NNW at 15 knots (about 17 mph)
…..Center pressure 941 millibars
…..Sustained winds 135 mph
…..wind gusts to 160 mph

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