* Birmingham reporting a steady, chilly rain, moderate to heavy at times. Brisk NE wind.

* At 4 am, the heaviest rain was in an arc curving from Hattiesburg and Meridian in East Mississippi northeastward to the general area of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

* NWS Huntsville has extended the Flash Flood Watch for Cullman Ccounty until 6 pm today. The watch already included Dekalb, Jackson and Marshall County until 6 pm

* NWS, Birmingham continues a flood watch for numerous counties across Central Alabama until 6 pm

* Center of Tropical Storm Ida still not onshore at 4 am. Based on surface analysis, the center is very near Mobile Bay.

Ida continues to slow down and weaken as it moves toward Mobile Bay. Winds will continue to gust over 50 mph near the coast early this morning, and it will also be windy in central and south Alabama, with wind gusts as high as 40 mph at times today in BHM. However, the threat for wind damage with Ida appears to be decreasing.

I am starting to be concerned about the possibility of flooding in Alabama, as far north as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston. Computer models in recent days have been taking the storm rapidly eastward after landfall, and taking the heaviest rain across south Alabama and into north Georgia. However, the storm is slowing down, and will eventually interact with an upper-level disturbance. Also, the storm is starting to look more like a winter-time system than a tropical system, with most of the heavy rain well to the north and east of the center (see satellite below.)

The consensus of the computer models places the center of Ida still in south Alabama, somewhere near Opp, Luverne, or Andalusia, by 6 pm today. Radar clearly shows that heavy rain has spread inland well to the north and even NW of the center. Take a look at radar-estimated rainfall totals as of 345 am.

Many places in south Alabama have already received 2″ of rain, with many hours of rain left to go. Some local totals as of 345 am: BHM airport 0.62, Hoover 0.92, NWS Calera 1.10, TCL 0.90, Brent 1.61, MGM 1.42, Alex City 1.16, Selma 1.60, Troy 2.38, Evergreen 3.29, Florala 2.77, Dothan 0.91.

Predicting rainfall amounts in locations is difficult, since small changes in speed or direction of storm motion can make a huge difference. But, some of the computer models are showing big rainfall totals over parts of central and south Alabama between last night and Wednesday morning. Some examples for BHM (amounts south and east of BHM are in some models larger):

GFS: 6.5″
NAM: 3″
GEM: 4-5″
NOGAPS: 6″
UKMET: 2.5″

The average here is what NCEP is going with, about 3″ in BHM with a maximum of 5-6″ from Demopolis to Anniston. With the soil saturated and the lakes still above seasonal normals from so much rain this year, flash flooding (localized, rapidly occurring flooding) and river flooding (larger scale) could become a problem by tonight and tomorrow. It helps that Alabama Power and the Army Corps of Engineers have already started letting seasonal lakes down some for the winter, but if the higher model amounts are correct, flooding problems are likely.

If you live in a low-lying area prone to flash flooding, keep an eye on things today and tonight. If you encounter a roadway covered in water, don’t drive over it. The water may be deeper than you think, or the road could be washed away. If you have lake property, we should know which lakes will be affected the most later today.

SPOT REPORTS
Maxwell Air Force base…steady rain, wind NE, gusts 31
Shelby County Airport…Moderate rain, wind NE 18
Tuscaloosa…moderate rain, wind NE, gusts 24
Alexander City…heavy rain, wind NE 20
Mobile…moderate rain, wind NE, gusts 32
Evergreen…heavy rain, wind NE 20
Dothan…moderate rain, wind SE gusts 30
Troy…heavy rain, wind NE 12
Pensacola…moderate rain, wind SE, gusts 38
12 miles south of Orange Beach…wind SSE, gusts 34 with 15-foot waves.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

…IDA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS IT WEAKENS A
LITTLE MORE…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 300 AM CST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES…95 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL…IDA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY…AND IDA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB…29.50 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL…AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

…SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…29.9N 88.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
AM CST.

The center of tropical storm Ida remains just offshore of the Mississippi Coast early this morning. It is centered about 35 miles south of Pascagoula, MS. It has definitely slowed its forward motion. Now the question is whether it will even make landfall as a tropical system.

Ida, or its remnants, are expected to begin moving eastward later this morning, exactly as predicted very early on by the NHC. Their forecasts have been excellent.

But where the center goes is kind of academic now. It’s windy and wet across a large part of the Gulf Coast and inland sections of Alabama and Mississippi.

Rain covers a large part of Alabama tonight. The back edge of the rain is now moving up into Marengo, Wilcox and Butler Counties in South Alabama. This large rain area will continue through the overnight hours, finally moving east later today. 1-2 inches of rain could fall overnight and tomorrow morning in the I-59 corridor. 3-4 inches could fall from Mobile to Anniston. Flash flood watches are in effect just in case.

Only 0.29 inches so far at the Birmingham Airport through midnight. I’ve had 0.31 inches here in Trussville.

As one might expect, winds are strongest near the coast.

Some current coastal wind gusts:

Mobile: 39 mph
Pascagoula: 30 mph
Gulf Shores: 24 mph
NAS Pensacola: 40 mph
Destin: 35 mph
Petit Bois Island off Mississippi Coast: 47 mph
12 miles south of Orange Beach: 48 mph

Further Inland:
Evergreen: 28 mph
Greenville: 22 mph
Montgomery: 25 mph

In the Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston areas, winds will be sustained at 12-22 mph through this afternoon, with occasional higher gusts.

The back edge of the rain is approaching the Alabama coast, so the rain should diminish there after midnight. The rest of Alabama will be wet tonight, and the rain will linger into the day tomorrow. The heaviest rain should be from Mobile to Anniston, where 2 to 3 inches are possible. Looks like around 1 inch for Birmingham, with very light amounts for Northwest Alabama.

BOTTOM LINE: Still looks pretty much like a non-event, with minimal potential for damage and no serious flooding issues. Of course, we will keep an eye on the situation until the system moves out of the state tomorrow afternoon. The rest of the week looks like it will feature some delightful weather.

Ida is only about 50 miles south of Dauphin Island, and should reach Mobile Bay by midnight. The maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. Wave heights about 12 miles south of Orange Beach are 16 feet, and water levels in Mobile Bay are about 1 foot above normal high tide right now, and a few spots may see tides up to 5 feet above normal.

Recent wind gusts include 40 mph at Mobile, 37 mph Pensacola Naval Air Station, 45 mph at Biloxi, 35 mph Panama City Beach.

The University of Alabama in Huntsville team is near Foley, AL, with the Mobile Alabama X-Band Radar (MAX), and the MIPS wind profiler. They report numerous gravity waves in the system, and their highest wind gust has been 62 mph. To see live data of vertical wind profiles, vertical motion, and radar, go to the following websites (these are also normally active in Huntsville when we are not on a storm):

Profiler winds: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/mips/data/current/profiler/wind.html

Profiler vertical motion, rain, etc.:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/mips/data/current/profiler/moments.html

MAX radar http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/mips/max/

* Steady rain, Mobile Regional Airport, wind east 17
* Light rain at Fairhope, wind NE, gusts 21
* Steady rain, Gulf Shores, wind NE 21
* Moderate rain, Destin, wind NE, gusts 23
* Heavy rain, Pensacola, wind NE, gusts 17
* Heavy rain, Pensacola Navy, wind NE 18
* 36 mph sustained wind with gusts 45 mph at Petit Bois Island
* NE gusts to 30, East Dauphin Island
* NE gusts to 25, Mobile Bay Coast Guard Station
* Gusts 42 mph with 13-foot waves, 12 miles south of Orange Beach
* Wind east sustained at 40 mph, gusts to 52 mph, 11-foot waves, 22 miles SE of Biloxi
* Wind east sustained 43, gusts to 54, 22-foot waves, 115 miles SE of Pensacola
* Heavy rain at Pascagoula, wind NE, gusts 23
* Steady moderate rain at Gulfport, NE wind, gusts 29
* Light rain at New Orleans Airport, NE wind, gusts to 33
* SE wind, gusts 27, 15-foot waves south of Apalachicola
* Sustained wind 52 mph, gusts 64, Pilot Station E
* NE wind sustained 58 mph, gusts 67 mph, SW Pass

The center of Ida was 60 miles SE of the mouth of the Mississippi
River and about 165 miles SSW of Pensacola. Ida was moving toward the
north about 18 mph. She is expected to slow down somewhat tonight. The
center should reach the northern Gulf Coast tonight. After landfall,
Ida is expected to turn toward the east tomorrow.

Highest sustained winds were near 70 mph with higher gusts. Weakening
is expected this evening as Ida moves over cooler waters prior to
making landfall. She is expected to merge with a frontal zone on
Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds will extend outward up to 200
miles from the center. Rains from Ida are already moving across the
coast. Total storm rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected
with a few spots getting over 8 inches. That rain will last through
Wednesday evening from the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast across the
SE USA.

A dangerous storm tide will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5
feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where
the center makes landfall. The storm surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Around 4:00 this afternoon, moderate to
heavy rain had spread as far north as near Montgomery. The more
widespread heavy rain was over the SW part of the state and within a
60-mile radius of Mobile. Light rain had spread as far north as the
Birmingham area.

BIRMINGHAM AREA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA IMPACT
A Flood Watch will be in effect from 9:00 tonight through Tuesday
afternoon. A Wind Advisory is also in effect from 8:00 this evening
until 6:00 p.m. Tuesday. Rain will become widespread late this evening
and overnight–heavy at times. East winds will increase with gusts to
around 35 mph. On Tuesday, rain will be extensive through the morning
hours, tapering off some during the afternoon. The rain will be heavy
at times during the morning with NE winds as high as 30 mph. Still a
good chance of rain Tuesday evening.

VETERAN’S DAY
We still look for dry weather and cooler temperatures for Wednesday.
Highs will be about 65 and low Wednesday night about 45 mph. Dry
weather will continue all the way through the weekend.

…IDA TURNS NORTHWARD…SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 300 PM CST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES… 95 KM…SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 165 MILES…265 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. A REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…
THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.
AFTER LANDFALL…IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS IDA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL…AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB…29.26 INCHES.

RAINS FROM IDA ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL…AS WELL AS IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

…SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…28.4N 88.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

RIGHT NOW: As I write this around 2:00, the leading edge of the rain associated with Ida is roughly along U.S. 80, or from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika. Looks like the rain will reach the I-20 corridor by 5:00 p.m.

Tropical Storm Ida continues to make the transformation to a more broad, mid-latitude system. Doesn’t make much sense to worry about the dots on the tracking maps, since the wind and rain associated with this system is rather uniform, and covers a large area. Winds, as expected, aren’t overly impressive on the Alabama Gulf Coast right now; at the Jack Edwards Airport in Gulf Shores, the winds are out of the east at only 7 mph. We note that Greenville, over 100 miles inland, has a stronger east wind, averaging 13 mph. Winds over much of Alabama will be out of the east at 10 to 20 mph tonight and tomorrow; but they should be a littler stronger on the immediate coast late tonight and early tomorrow. Still, not enough to cause serious issues other than a few scattered power outages.

HOW MUCH RAIN? The 12Z run of the NAM is much drier; it is now printing only 0.44″ of rain for Birmingham. This is because that model turns the system due east right as it approaches the coast. With this scenario, there could be very little rain for areas north of Birmingham. But, the GFS is much more aggressive, showing 4.27″ for Birmingham. This reflects the uncertainly of a system that is changing from a tropical storm to a cold core, mid-latitude storm system, and also in the process of changing directions in about 12 to 18 hours.

I still think 1 to 2 inches are a good bet for our part of the state (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden). The axis of heaviest rain should be roughly from Mobile to Anniston; some spots could see 3 to 4 inches in that zone during the next 24 hours. The NWS maintains a flash flood watch, but thanks to the recent 9 day dry spell, I don’t anticipate anything other than localized flooding issues. The rain will taper off late tomorrow as the system moves on to the east.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Still looking at very nice weather these days, with mostly sunny days and clear cool nights. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s.

THE WEEKEND: The weekend looks excellent, with lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday along with highs in the low to mid 70s; much like last weekend. The 12Z GFS brings in a short wave with a chance of showers or storms by Monday of next week; we will probably go ahead and adjust the forecast for that possibility.

VOODOO LAND: The one thing we don’t see for the rest of the month is any serious invasion of cold air. This, of course, is subject to change, but modeling has been pretty consistent in keeping the primary Polar jet to the north.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Tim Marshall joins us tonight; the show should be posted by 11:00 p.m.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

We will keep you posted on weather developments tonight as the rain moves in… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow.